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000
FXUS64 KMEG 260433
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1133 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 755 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

UPDATE...
Updated to extend heat advisory.

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures along and east of the Mississippi river will warm
back into the mid and upper 90s tomorrow underneath the upper
high center. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s will produce
heat indices of 103 to 108 degrees...therefore the heat advisory
has been extended until early Sunday evening. No other changes are
needed with the evening forecast.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 314 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

Another hot and humid day is underway throughout the Mid-South. A
Heat advisory has been issued through the evening. As of 2PM heat
index values are holding just shy of advisory criteria for most of
the MEG CWA, however some stations such as Memphis and Union
City,TN are reporting heat indices at and above 105 degrees. Some
thunderstorms have developed in the northeast portion of our area,
just south of an almost stationary surface boundary. The main
threat with any storms that may form this evening will be small
hail and lightning. The HRRR is aggressive with continued
development this evening in the eastern portions of the Mid-South
and into the OHX CWA, while other short term models are far less
aggressive. The less aggressive approach makes more sense due to
the steep upper ridge in place over the region.

The upper ridge will begin to degrade tomorrow, allowing for a
surface front associated with an upper level closed low over
Southern Canada to begin to approach the Lower Mississippi River
Valley. A few showers and storms could form well ahead of this
front, mainly impacting the western portions of the Mid-South
tomorrow evening. The best chances for widespread rain and storms
in some time will exist on Monday as the front advances from north
to south through the area. No severe storms are expected but winds
will be the main threat with any storms that form. Hail doesn`t
seem to be a threat due to very warm airmass extending from the
surface to about 600mb. Model soundings depict a near storm
environment with -20 temperatures only existing above 26,000 ft.
Cooler, drier air will begin to filter into the region behind the
front.

A steep upper level high, centered over the Four Corner`s region,
will result in upper level NW flow for the eastern United States.
This upper level flow pattern will provide extended relief from
the hot and humid conditions that we`ve experienced most of June.
Expect below normal temperatures from Tuesday through next
weekend. Long term models hint at a chance of showers and storms
next weekend as a disturbance embedded in the moves through the
Mid-South, otherwise we should remain mostly dry through next week
after the front clears the area by Wednesday.

JPM3

&&

.AVIATION...

06z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions should prevail at all sites with the exception of
reduced VSBYS in late night fog at KMKL. Winds should remain light
tonight and become southwesterly at 7 kts or less on Sunday.
Strong ridging aloft on Sunday should limit convective coverage
areawide. Light south to southwest winds will be common again by
Sunday evening. Any convection should hold off until after 06z
Monday.

JLH

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for Crittenden-Mississippi.

MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for Alcorn-Benton MS-Calhoun-
     Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-Marshall-
     Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-
     Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

$$



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000
FXUS64 KOHX 260158
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
858 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A stalled warm front and a few outflow boundaries from earlier
convection have allowed for some additional storms to develop this
evening. Main threat with these storms has been flooding due to
very slow storm motion and the backbuilding nature of the storms
as they mainly remain anchored to the boundaries. Some storms have
developed some strong updrafts and had some decent signatures for
hail and gusty winds, so can not rule out small hail and winds
from these storms this evening. Most short term models have
convection continuing this evening but diminishing around
midnight for most of the mid state. Left in mention of storms as
a few models still have isolated storms overnight mainly for areas
west of the Plateau. Otherwise no major changes to the short term
forecast overnight.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Mostly VFR conditions for this TAF cycle. The only curve ball will
be some MVFR fog at KCSV after midnight. Winds will be light and
variable to calm throughout, as well.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Barnwell
AVIATION........Unger



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000
FXUS64 KMRX 260145
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
945 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Surface ridge holding over the forecast area this evening with
deeper moisture just to the west and southwest along old frontal
boundary. Showers and storms have stayed just to the west and
southwest along the boundary. Skies are mostly clear and
temperatures are dropping slowly into the 70s and 80s with
Chattanooga still near 90 at 9 pm. Patchy fog possible late
tonight and early sunday. Updated hourly temperatures and dew
points otherwise no changes to current forecast.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 260145
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
945 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Surface ridge holding over the forecast area this evening with
deeper moisture just to the west and southwest along old frontal
boundary. Showers and storms have stayed just to the west and
southwest along the boundary. Skies are mostly clear and
temperatures are dropping slowly into the 70s and 80s with
Chattanooga still near 90 at 9 pm. Patchy fog possible late
tonight and early sunday. Updated hourly temperatures and dew
points otherwise no changes to current forecast.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMEG 260055
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
755 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated to extend heat advisory.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Temperatures along and east of the Mississippi river will warm
back into the mid and upper 90s tomorrow underneath the upper
high center. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s will produce
heat indices of 103 to 108 degrees...therefore the heat advisory
has been extended until early Sunday evening. No other changes are
needed with the evening forecast.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 636 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

UPDATE...

Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 314 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

Another hot and humid day is underway throughout the Mid-South. A
Heat advisory has been issued through the evening. As of 2PM heat
index values are holding just shy of advisory criteria for most of
the MEG CWA, however some stations such as Memphis and Union
City,TN are reporting heat indices at and above 105 degrees. Some
thunderstorms have developed in the northeast portion of our area,
just south of an almost stationary surface boundary. The main
threat with any storms that may form this evening will be small
hail and lightning. The HRRR is aggressive with continued
development this evening in the eastern portions of the Mid-South
and into the OHX CWA, while other short term models are far less
aggressive. The less aggressive approach makes more sense due to
the steep upper ridge in place over the region.

The upper ridge will begin to degrade tomorrow, allowing for a
surface front associated with an upper level closed low over
Southern Canada to begin to approach the Lower Mississippi River
Valley. A few showers and storms could form well ahead of this
front, mainly impacting the western portions of the Mid-South
tomorrow evening. The best chances for widespread rain and storms
in some time will exist on Monday as the front advances from north
to south through the area. No severe storms are expected but winds
will be the main threat with any storms that form. Hail doesn`t
seem to be a threat due to very warm airmass extending from the
surface to about 600mb. Model soundings depict a near storm
environment with -20 temperatures only existing above 26,000 ft.
Cooler, drier air will begin to filter into the region behind the
front.

A steep upper level high, centered over the Four Corner`s region,
will result in upper level NW flow for the eastern United States.
This upper level flow pattern will provide extended relief from
the hot and humid conditions that we`ve experienced most of June.
Expect below normal temperatures from Tuesday through next
weekend. Long term models hint at a chance of showers and storms
next weekend as a disturbance embedded in the moves through the
Mid-South, otherwise we should remain mostly dry through next week
after the front clears the area by Wednesday.

JPM3

&&

.AVIATION...

00z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions should prevail at all sites with the exception of
reduced VSBYS in late night fog at KMKL. Winds should remain light
tonight and become southwesterly at 7 kts or less on Sunday.
Strong ridging aloft on Sunday should limit convective coverage
areawide.

JLH

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for Crittenden-Mississippi.

MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for Alcorn-Benton MS-Calhoun-
     Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-Marshall-
     Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-
     Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 252343
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
743 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.AVIATION...
Skies mostly clear overnight with mvfr fog at TRI for a few hours
sunday morning. VFR conditions for rest of sunday. A few showers
and storms may form before 00Z but coverage limited and timing to
far in future to add in forecast.

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMEG 252336
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
636 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 314 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

Another hot and humid day is underway throughout the Mid-South. A
Heat advisory has been issued through the evening. As of 2PM heat
index values are holding just shy of advisory criteria for most of
the MEG CWA, however some stations such as Memphis and Union
City,TN are reporting heat indices at and above 105 degrees. Some
thunderstorms have developed in the northeast portion of our area,
just south of an almost stationary surface boundary. The main
threat with any storms that may form this evening will be small
hail and lightning. The HRRR is aggressive with continued
development this evening in the eastern portions of the Mid-South
and into the OHX CWA, while other short term models are far less
aggressive. The less aggressive approach makes more sense due to
the steep upper ridge in place over the region.

The upper ridge will begin to degrade tomorrow, allowing for a
surface front associated with an upper level closed low over
Southern Canada to begin to approach the Lower Mississippi River
Valley. A few showers and storms could form well ahead of this
front, mainly impacting the western portions of the Mid-South
tomorrow evening. The best chances for widespread rain and storms
in some time will exist on Monday as the front advances from north
to south through the area. No severe storms are expected but winds
will be the main threat with any storms that form. Hail doesn`t
seem to be a threat due to very warm airmass extending from the
surface to about 600mb. Model soundings depict a near storm
environment with -20 temperatures only existing above 26,000 ft.
Cooler, drier air will begin to filter into the region behind the
front.

A steep upper level high, centered over the Four Corner`s region,
will result in upper level NW flow for the eastern United States.
This upper level flow pattern will provide extended relief from
the hot and humid conditions that we`ve experienced most of June.
Expect below normal temperatures from Tuesday through next
weekend. Long term models hint at a chance of showers and storms
next weekend as a disturbance embedded in the moves through the
Mid-South, otherwise we should remain mostly dry through next week
after the front clears the area by Wednesday.

JPM3

&&

.AVIATION...

00z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions should prevail at all sites with the exception of
reduced VSBYS in late night fog at KMKL. Winds should remain light
tonight and become southwesterly at 7 kts or less on Sunday.
Strong ridging aloft on Sunday should limit convective coverage
areawide.

JLH

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for Crittenden-Mississippi.

MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for Alcorn-Benton MS-Calhoun-
     Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-Marshall-
     Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-
     Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 252325
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
625 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Frontal boundary currently draped down through southern
Illinois...far western Kentucky and then down through far western
Middle Tennessee into northern Alabama. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms are breaking out along this boundary and will work
northeastward as go through the afternoon. Currently have pops in
over the southwest half of the Mid State to cover this. As temps
heat up this afternoon into the middle 90`s expect to see heat
indicies climb above 100 over the southwest half the Mid State
with reading topping out around 104 in spotty locations. I don`t
see any push to that front overnight in my cwa as wind fields
remain very weak so am expecting the front to basically remain
insitu then on Sunday make its move eastward into eastern
Tennessee and eastern Kentucky by afternoon. May need a pop first
part of this evening over southwest half of Middle Tennessee but
we could see isolated nocturnal thunderstorms try and develop
overnight. Will wait and decide later on whether to include small
pops overnight or not after a little collaboration. Mid state gets
into a little juicer air mass Sunday into Monday so will include
small pop for thunderstorms during the day Sunday and ramp pops up
Sunday night into Monday as upper ridge backs off and retrogrades
allowing for an upper trough to develop eastern U.S. which will
allow for a noticeable cool down in our temps and dewpoints beginning
by mid week and lasting into next weekend. Small rain chance on
Tuesday with Wednesday and Thursday dry with shower and
thunderstorm chances returning on Friday and continuing into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Mostly VFR conditions for this TAF cycle. The only curve ball will
be some MVFR fog at KCSV after midnight. Winds will be light and
variable to calm throughout, as well.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......01/Boyd
AVIATION........Unger




000
FXUS64 KOHX 252325
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
625 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Frontal boundary currently draped down through southern
Illinois...far western Kentucky and then down through far western
Middle Tennessee into northern Alabama. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms are breaking out along this boundary and will work
northeastward as go through the afternoon. Currently have pops in
over the southwest half of the Mid State to cover this. As temps
heat up this afternoon into the middle 90`s expect to see heat
indicies climb above 100 over the southwest half the Mid State
with reading topping out around 104 in spotty locations. I don`t
see any push to that front overnight in my cwa as wind fields
remain very weak so am expecting the front to basically remain
insitu then on Sunday make its move eastward into eastern
Tennessee and eastern Kentucky by afternoon. May need a pop first
part of this evening over southwest half of Middle Tennessee but
we could see isolated nocturnal thunderstorms try and develop
overnight. Will wait and decide later on whether to include small
pops overnight or not after a little collaboration. Mid state gets
into a little juicer air mass Sunday into Monday so will include
small pop for thunderstorms during the day Sunday and ramp pops up
Sunday night into Monday as upper ridge backs off and retrogrades
allowing for an upper trough to develop eastern U.S. which will
allow for a noticeable cool down in our temps and dewpoints beginning
by mid week and lasting into next weekend. Small rain chance on
Tuesday with Wednesday and Thursday dry with shower and
thunderstorm chances returning on Friday and continuing into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Mostly VFR conditions for this TAF cycle. The only curve ball will
be some MVFR fog at KCSV after midnight. Winds will be light and
variable to calm throughout, as well.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......01/Boyd
AVIATION........Unger




000
FXUS64 KMEG 252014
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
314 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Another hot and humid day is underway throughout the Mid-South. A
Heat advisory has been issued through the evening. As of 2PM heat
index values are holding just shy of advisory criteria for most of
the MEG CWA, however some stations such as Memphis and Union
City,TN are reporting heat indices at and above 105 degrees. Some
thunderstorms have developed in the northeast portion of our
area, just south of an almost stationary surface boundary. The
main threat with any storms that may form this evening will be
small hail and lightning. The HRRR is aggressive with continued
development this evening in the eastern portions of the Mid-South
and into the OHX CWA, while other short term models are far less
aggressive. The less aggressive approach makes more sense due to
the steep upper ridge in place over the region.

The upper ridge will begin to degrade tomorrow, allowing for a
surface front associated with an upper level closed low over
Southern Canada to begin to approach the Lower Mississippi River
Valley. A few showers and storms could form well ahead of this
front, mainly impacting the western portions of the Mid-South
tomorrow evening. The best chances for widespread rain and storms
in some time will exist on Monday as the front advances from north
to south through the area. No severe storms are expected but winds
will be the main threat with any storms that form. Hail doesn`t
seem to be a threat due to very warm airmass extending from the
surface to about 600mb. Model soundings depict a near storm
environment with -20 temperatures only existing above 26,000 ft.
Cooler, drier air will begin to filter into the region behind the
front.

A steep upper level high, centered over the Four Corner`s region,
will result in upper level NW flow for the eastern United States.
This upper level flow pattern will provide extended relief from
the hot and humid conditions that we`ve experienced most of June.
Expect below normal temperatures from Tuesday through next
weekend. Long term models hint at a chance of showers and storms
next weekend as a disturbance embedded in the moves through the
Mid-South, otherwise we should remain mostly dry through next week
after the front clears the area by Wednesday.

JPM3

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFs

Greatest pooling of low level moisture will occur near the TN
valley this afternoon, with isolated TSRA favoring primarily MKL
and TUP. Surface winds will remain light areawide. Could see
localized IFR conditions develop at MKL late tonight, especially
if additional rainfall occurs in the area this afternoon.

PWB

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Crittenden-
     Mississippi.

MO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
     Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 252014
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
314 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Another hot and humid day is underway throughout the Mid-South. A
Heat advisory has been issued through the evening. As of 2PM heat
index values are holding just shy of advisory criteria for most of
the MEG CWA, however some stations such as Memphis and Union
City,TN are reporting heat indices at and above 105 degrees. Some
thunderstorms have developed in the northeast portion of our
area, just south of an almost stationary surface boundary. The
main threat with any storms that may form this evening will be
small hail and lightning. The HRRR is aggressive with continued
development this evening in the eastern portions of the Mid-South
and into the OHX CWA, while other short term models are far less
aggressive. The less aggressive approach makes more sense due to
the steep upper ridge in place over the region.

The upper ridge will begin to degrade tomorrow, allowing for a
surface front associated with an upper level closed low over
Southern Canada to begin to approach the Lower Mississippi River
Valley. A few showers and storms could form well ahead of this
front, mainly impacting the western portions of the Mid-South
tomorrow evening. The best chances for widespread rain and storms
in some time will exist on Monday as the front advances from north
to south through the area. No severe storms are expected but winds
will be the main threat with any storms that form. Hail doesn`t
seem to be a threat due to very warm airmass extending from the
surface to about 600mb. Model soundings depict a near storm
environment with -20 temperatures only existing above 26,000 ft.
Cooler, drier air will begin to filter into the region behind the
front.

A steep upper level high, centered over the Four Corner`s region,
will result in upper level NW flow for the eastern United States.
This upper level flow pattern will provide extended relief from
the hot and humid conditions that we`ve experienced most of June.
Expect below normal temperatures from Tuesday through next
weekend. Long term models hint at a chance of showers and storms
next weekend as a disturbance embedded in the moves through the
Mid-South, otherwise we should remain mostly dry through next week
after the front clears the area by Wednesday.

JPM3

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFs

Greatest pooling of low level moisture will occur near the TN
valley this afternoon, with isolated TSRA favoring primarily MKL
and TUP. Surface winds will remain light areawide. Could see
localized IFR conditions develop at MKL late tonight, especially
if additional rainfall occurs in the area this afternoon.

PWB

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Crittenden-
     Mississippi.

MO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
     Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 251959
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
259 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Frontal boundary currently draped down through southern
Illinois...far western Kentucky and then down through far western
Middle Tennessee into northern Alabama. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms are breaking out along this boundary and will work
northeastward as go through the afternoon. Currently have pops in
over the southwest half of the Mid State to cover this. As temps
heat up this afternoon into the middle 90`s expect to see heat
indicies climb above 100 over the southwest half the Mid State
with reading topping out around 104 in spotty locations. I don`t
see any push to that front overnight in my cwa as wind fields
remain very weak so am expecting the front to basically remain
insitu then on Sunday make its move eastward into eastern
Tennessee and eastern Kentucky by afternoon. May need a pop first
part of this evening over southwest half of Middle Tennessee but
we could see isolated nocturnal thunderstorms try and develop
overnight. Will wait and decide later on whether to include small
pops overnight or not after a little collaboration. Mid state gets
into a little juicer air mass Sunday into Monday so will include
small pop for thunderstorms during the day Sunday and ramp pops up
Sunday night into Monday as upper ridge backs off and retrogrades
allowing for an upper trough to develop eastern U.S. which will
allow for a noticeable cool down in our temps and dewpoints beginning
by mid week and lasting into next weekend. Small rain chance on
Tuesday with Wednesday and Thursday dry with shower and
thunderstorm chances returning on Friday and continuing into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Capping and subsidence over much of the Mid-State today appears
to be holding strong enough to keep isolated convection over
western area weakening as it tries to push slowly eastward. This
means that BNA will be hard-pressed to get a VCTS this afternoon,
and have amended TAF to extract that particular mention. Will
leave the VCTS in the CKV TAF for now (for 21Z/25-00z/26), as a
few showers are currently just west of Montgomery County.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......01/Boyd
AVIATION........19




000
FXUS64 KOHX 251929
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
229 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Frontal boundary currently draped down through southern
Illinois...far western Kentucky and then down through far western
Middle Tennessee into northern Alabama. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms are breaking out along this boundary and will work
northeastward as go through the afternoon. Currently have pops in
over the southwest half of the Mid State to cover this. As temps
heat up this afternoon into the middle 90`s expect to see heat
indicies climb above 100 over the southwest half the Mid State
with reading topping out around 104 in spotty locations. I don`t
see any push to that front overnight in my cwa as wind fields
remain very weak so am expecting the front to basically remain
insitu then on Sunday make its move eastward into eastern
Tennessee and eastern Kentucky by afternoon. May need a pop first
part of this evening over southwest half of Middle Tennessee but
we could see isolated nocturnal thunderstorms try and develop
overnight. Will wait and decide later on whether to include small
pops overnight or not after a little collaboration. Mid state gets
into a little juicer air mass Sunday into Monday so will include
small pop for thunderstorms during the day Sunday and ramp pops up
Sunday night into Monday as upper ridge backs off and retrogrades
allowing for an upper trough to develop eastern U.S. which will
allow for a noticeable cool down in our temps and dewpoints beginning
by mid week and lasting into next weekend. Small rain chance on
Tuesday with Wednesday and Thursday dry with shower and
thunderstorm chances returning on Friday and continuing into next
weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR conditions thru 26/12Z. However, tricky forecast when it comes
to actual cloud coverage, especially CKV/BNA per possible formations/
dissipations of bkn ac/bkn ci ceilings. Nwly upper level flow pattern
approaching 25/12Z supporting bkn AC ceilings CKV/BNA should generally
shift ewd as upper level ridging influences build across region by
25/18Z. Best overall atm moisture content though remains associated in
vicinity of sfc front near TN River as of 25/12Z, which is expected to
drift slowly and slightly ewd as a warm front thru 26/12Z. Any weak
disturbance in flow aloft, aided by diurnal heating influences, could
interact with this moisture pooling, at BNA, and especially CKV, leading
to periodic formations/dissipations of bkn AC/bkn CI ceilings thru 26/12Z.
MVFR to tempo IFR fog CSV expected thru 25/14Z, otherwise SKC conditions
expected, as upper level ridging influences are strongest across this
area. Formation of at least again MVFR fog possible after 26/06Z CSV
per usual low level moisture pooling potential. On the whole, at all
terminals, light north sfc winds will become southeast thru 26/12Z also.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      71  94  72  90  72 /  10  20  40  50  30
Clarksville    73  94  72  90  70 /  10  20  30  50  20
Crossville     67  88  69  84  66 /  10  20  40  50  30
Columbia       71  96  72  89  71 /  10  20  20  50  30
Lawrenceburg   71  96  72  90  71 /  10  20  30  50  40
Waverly        72  94  72  90  71 /  10  20  30  50  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......01/Boyd
AVIATION........19




000
FXUS64 KMRX 251915
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
315 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.Short Term (Tonight and Sunday)...Surface ridge now over the area
with associated light winds this afternoon and should drop to near
calm this evening. As the ridge slides east, a southerly return
flow will begin on Sunday allowing more moisture into the
area...but also allowing the strong capping inversion to wane.
Expecting showers/storms to develop in the western areas in the
afternoon...as well as the elevated terrain along the Appalachians.
Upper flow will be quite weak from the North and Northwest...so
keeping less chances of precip from the west making it into the
central and eastern parts of the valley...and precip from the
Appalachians should drift S/SE into the Carolinas. Keeping some
patchy fog late tonight in low spots near lakes. For temperatures
went very close to Guidance values both tonight and Sunday.

.Long term (Sunday night through Saturday)...The main feature of
interest for this part of the forecast will be Monday into Monday
night as the advertised cold front moves across the Southern
Appalachian region. Likely pops were applied for convection with the
a pre-frontal trough/outflow boundary which appears to move onto the
plateau during the mid to late afternoon hours and continues
southeast through the rest of the forecast area during the evening.
There will be a marginal risk for severe convection for the event.
Instability should be no problem with moderate to high cape values
however, shear will be less impressive. The actual cold frontal
boundary will lag well behind the convective outflow so will keep
the chance pops going into the morning hours on Tuesday. A period of
mainly dry weather will begin later Tuesday afternoon all the way
through approximately Thursday. Higher pressure and sufficient dry
advection and limited instability should keep any shower or
thunderstorm from forming across most of the region. The added
benefit of orographic lifting could allow for isolated precipitation
across some of the higher terrain. Model solutions diverge at the
end of the long term (Friday and Saturday) with the ECMWF trying to
bring a weak short wave and associated slightly higher pop for
convection into the region while the GFS picks up on a short wave
feature but doesn`t bring the perturbation into the Southern
Appalachians until about Sunday. Therefore, just added a slight
chance for showers and thunderstorms for the entire forecast area
for Friday and Saturday while awaiting better model agreement in
later runs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             73  95  74  92 /  10  30  30  60
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  70  91  71  87 /   0  20  20  70
Oak Ridge, TN                       70  93  71  87 /   0  20  40  70
Tri Cities Airport, TN              66  89  67  84 /  10  10  20  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 251807
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
107 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Isolated thunderstorms firing along dewpoint/warm front over
western Middle Tennessee early this afternoon, and heading east at
about 10 mph. The propagation could bring tstms into the BNA and
CKV vicinity by late afternoon. So, will probably make minor
adjustments to our current slight chance area today and expand it
ever-so-slightly to the north and east to include the Nashville
and Clarksville areas. Otherwise, no change to previous forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Latest HRRR suggests we could get some isolated thunderstorms
working their way into the CKV-BNA area this afternoon, as storms
fire near warm front and head northeast. Therefore, went a ahead
and added a VCTS into the CKV and BNA TAFS btwn 21z and 00z.
Patchy fog expected in the CSV area late tonight and early Sunday,
along with MVFR vsbys. Of course, if an isolated thunderstorm
happens to pass over the airports at BNA and/or CKV this
afternoon, a brief period of MVFR/IFR conditions could occur at
those locations as well. Otherwise, look for VFR conditions the
prevail through the forecast period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      71  94  72  90  72 /  10  20  40  50  30
Clarksville    73  94  72  90  70 /  10  20  30  50  20
Crossville     67  88  69  84  66 /  10  20  40  50  30
Columbia       71  96  72  89  71 /  10  20  20  50  30
Lawrenceburg   71  96  72  90  71 /  10  20  30  50  40
Waverly        72  94  72  90  71 /  10  20  30  50  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......01/Boyd
AVIATION........19




000
FXUS64 KOHX 251807
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
107 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Isolated thunderstorms firing along dewpoint/warm front over
western Middle Tennessee early this afternoon, and heading east at
about 10 mph. The propagation could bring tstms into the BNA and
CKV vicinity by late afternoon. So, will probably make minor
adjustments to our current slight chance area today and expand it
ever-so-slightly to the north and east to include the Nashville
and Clarksville areas. Otherwise, no change to previous forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Latest HRRR suggests we could get some isolated thunderstorms
working their way into the CKV-BNA area this afternoon, as storms
fire near warm front and head northeast. Therefore, went a ahead
and added a VCTS into the CKV and BNA TAFS btwn 21z and 00z.
Patchy fog expected in the CSV area late tonight and early Sunday,
along with MVFR vsbys. Of course, if an isolated thunderstorm
happens to pass over the airports at BNA and/or CKV this
afternoon, a brief period of MVFR/IFR conditions could occur at
those locations as well. Otherwise, look for VFR conditions the
prevail through the forecast period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      71  94  72  90  72 /  10  20  40  50  30
Clarksville    73  94  72  90  70 /  10  20  30  50  20
Crossville     67  88  69  84  66 /  10  20  40  50  30
Columbia       71  96  72  89  71 /  10  20  20  50  30
Lawrenceburg   71  96  72  90  71 /  10  20  30  50  40
Waverly        72  94  72  90  71 /  10  20  30  50  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......01/Boyd
AVIATION........19




000
FXUS64 KOHX 251755
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1255 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today thru Mon)

Much quieter evening than 24 hrs ago. Upper ridge stretches from the
Arklatex southeastward to Florida. Nam and Gfs solutions both show
rather poor cape to cap ratios across our northeastern cwa this
afternoon. More favorable ratios exist across the southwestern areas.
In fact, hrrr showing late afternoon development across that area.
Will include a 20 percent chance of showers and tstms for the
southwest.

On Sunday, cap erosion is much more prevalent. However, dynamics are
absent from the precip equation and will only include a 20 pop. By
Sunday night, upper high begins to move and expand westward. Light
westerlies pick up and a surface boundary will be on approach. The
fropa should occur on Monday afternoon. Therefore, will begin to
increase our pops Sunday night, reaching 50 percent for all areas on
Monday.

As for any strong to severe tstms on Monday, descent pre and main
frontal forcing will be juxtaposed with a high cape and low shear
environment. Looks like a few strong storms will be possible.

As for the near term temps, mid 90s again for today and Sunday.
Dewpoints are looking a degree or two less than on Friday. Thus, no
advisories. Temps will drop 3-5 degrees F by Monday as the clouds
and convection moves in.

.LONG TERM...
(Tue thru Fri)

Temps will finally fall to around seasonal normal values as the work
week progresses, as a sfc front pushes thru the mid state region as
Tuesday progresses also, with slight cold air advection upper
midwest surface high pressure influences building into our region.
After some mainly prefrontal isolated showers and thunderstorms on
Tuesday, dry conditions will persist across the mid state thru Wed
night, with the establishment of a dry nwly flow pattern aloft also
anticipated. Addressed best by the latest GFS solution, a weak
upper level distrubance passage in nwly flow aloft across our area
could bring isolated to scattered light to moderate showers and
thunderstorms activity back to the mid state Thursday into Friday.

$$

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Latest HRRR suggests we could get some isolated thunderstorms
working their way into the CKV-BNA area this afternoon, as storms
fire near warm front and head northeast. Therefore, went a ahead
and added a VCTS into the CKV and BNA TAFS btwn 21z and 00z.
Patchy fog expected in the CSV area late tonight and early Sunday,
along with MVFR vsbys. Of course, if an isolated thunderstorm
happens to pass over the airports at BNA and/or CKV this
afternoon, a brief period of MVFR/IFR conditions could occur at
those locations as well. Otherwise, look for VFR conditions the
prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......01/Boyd
AVIATION........19




000
FXUS64 KOHX 251755
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1255 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today thru Mon)

Much quieter evening than 24 hrs ago. Upper ridge stretches from the
Arklatex southeastward to Florida. Nam and Gfs solutions both show
rather poor cape to cap ratios across our northeastern cwa this
afternoon. More favorable ratios exist across the southwestern areas.
In fact, hrrr showing late afternoon development across that area.
Will include a 20 percent chance of showers and tstms for the
southwest.

On Sunday, cap erosion is much more prevalent. However, dynamics are
absent from the precip equation and will only include a 20 pop. By
Sunday night, upper high begins to move and expand westward. Light
westerlies pick up and a surface boundary will be on approach. The
fropa should occur on Monday afternoon. Therefore, will begin to
increase our pops Sunday night, reaching 50 percent for all areas on
Monday.

As for any strong to severe tstms on Monday, descent pre and main
frontal forcing will be juxtaposed with a high cape and low shear
environment. Looks like a few strong storms will be possible.

As for the near term temps, mid 90s again for today and Sunday.
Dewpoints are looking a degree or two less than on Friday. Thus, no
advisories. Temps will drop 3-5 degrees F by Monday as the clouds
and convection moves in.

.LONG TERM...
(Tue thru Fri)

Temps will finally fall to around seasonal normal values as the work
week progresses, as a sfc front pushes thru the mid state region as
Tuesday progresses also, with slight cold air advection upper
midwest surface high pressure influences building into our region.
After some mainly prefrontal isolated showers and thunderstorms on
Tuesday, dry conditions will persist across the mid state thru Wed
night, with the establishment of a dry nwly flow pattern aloft also
anticipated. Addressed best by the latest GFS solution, a weak
upper level distrubance passage in nwly flow aloft across our area
could bring isolated to scattered light to moderate showers and
thunderstorms activity back to the mid state Thursday into Friday.

$$

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Latest HRRR suggests we could get some isolated thunderstorms
working their way into the CKV-BNA area this afternoon, as storms
fire near warm front and head northeast. Therefore, went a ahead
and added a VCTS into the CKV and BNA TAFS btwn 21z and 00z.
Patchy fog expected in the CSV area late tonight and early Sunday,
along with MVFR vsbys. Of course, if an isolated thunderstorm
happens to pass over the airports at BNA and/or CKV this
afternoon, a brief period of MVFR/IFR conditions could occur at
those locations as well. Otherwise, look for VFR conditions the
prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......01/Boyd
AVIATION........19




000
FXUS64 KMRX 251749
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
149 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.AVIATION...
Afternoon heating has built basic cumulus field across the area.
Capping inversion should keep convection bottled-up this
afternoon. Mid cloud band over the western parts of the forecast
area continues to fade. Winds now very light as surface ridge has
settled into the area. As ridge slides east on Sunday...should
start a southerly return flow toward the end of this forecast
period. Put in light fog down to 3SM at KTRI late tonight.

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

GM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 251749
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
149 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.AVIATION...
Afternoon heating has built basic cumulus field across the area.
Capping inversion should keep convection bottled-up this
afternoon. Mid cloud band over the western parts of the forecast
area continues to fade. Winds now very light as surface ridge has
settled into the area. As ridge slides east on Sunday...should
start a southerly return flow toward the end of this forecast
period. Put in light fog down to 3SM at KTRI late tonight.

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

GM




000
FXUS64 KMEG 251737 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1237 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 945 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

UPDATE...
Skies around the Mid-South are mostly clear this morning with
temperatures ranging from the lower to upper 80`s at 9:30 AM. The
need for a heat advisory today is still being assessed. Dewpoints
in the upper 70s should begin to mix out soon as surface
temperatures continue to rise, but if they don`t a heat advisory
is likely. No other updates to the forecast are needed at this
point.

JPM3

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 642 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...issued 341 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016
Another hot and muggy day, yet today should not be as bad as
yesterday. Expecting dew points a couple of degrees lower than
yesterday. So no plans to put out an advisory, however, will have
to watch closely as a couple of degrees more in temperature
and/or dew point will cause a heat advisory.

Models in general agreement on the general pattern. Mesoscale and
short term models don`t agree much on how storms will develop
today and even where they will develop.

In general upper level pattern starts out with a upper high over
the Mid-South beginning on Sunday it starts to retrograde to the
west and northwest flow develops aloft by Tuesday. At the surface
we have the weak frontal system still over the area, yet there
aren`t many clouds associated with it. However, it may be the
trigger for some afternoon isolated thunderstorms today. By Monday
a surface high from the north begins to push into the area being
ushered in by a frontal system. It`s slow moving and finally gets
through by Tuesday evening. And by Wednesday lower temperatures
and dew points move into the Mid-South. This should last to the
end of next week, with temperatures below normal (normal is around
90).
TLSJr

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs

Greatest pooling of low level moisture will occur near the TN
valley this afternoon, with isolated TSRA favoring primarily MKL
and TUP. Surface winds will remain light areawide. Could see
localized IFR conditions develop at MKL late tonight, especially
if additional rainfall occurs in the area this afternoon.

PWB

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Crittenden-
     Mississippi.

MO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
     Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 251737 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1237 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 945 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

UPDATE...
Skies around the Mid-South are mostly clear this morning with
temperatures ranging from the lower to upper 80`s at 9:30 AM. The
need for a heat advisory today is still being assessed. Dewpoints
in the upper 70s should begin to mix out soon as surface
temperatures continue to rise, but if they don`t a heat advisory
is likely. No other updates to the forecast are needed at this
point.

JPM3

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 642 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...issued 341 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016
Another hot and muggy day, yet today should not be as bad as
yesterday. Expecting dew points a couple of degrees lower than
yesterday. So no plans to put out an advisory, however, will have
to watch closely as a couple of degrees more in temperature
and/or dew point will cause a heat advisory.

Models in general agreement on the general pattern. Mesoscale and
short term models don`t agree much on how storms will develop
today and even where they will develop.

In general upper level pattern starts out with a upper high over
the Mid-South beginning on Sunday it starts to retrograde to the
west and northwest flow develops aloft by Tuesday. At the surface
we have the weak frontal system still over the area, yet there
aren`t many clouds associated with it. However, it may be the
trigger for some afternoon isolated thunderstorms today. By Monday
a surface high from the north begins to push into the area being
ushered in by a frontal system. It`s slow moving and finally gets
through by Tuesday evening. And by Wednesday lower temperatures
and dew points move into the Mid-South. This should last to the
end of next week, with temperatures below normal (normal is around
90).
TLSJr

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs

Greatest pooling of low level moisture will occur near the TN
valley this afternoon, with isolated TSRA favoring primarily MKL
and TUP. Surface winds will remain light areawide. Could see
localized IFR conditions develop at MKL late tonight, especially
if additional rainfall occurs in the area this afternoon.

PWB

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Crittenden-
     Mississippi.

MO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
     Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 251515
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1115 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Frontal boundary is now south and west of the area. Warm advection
already taking place aloft...with associated quasi-stationary NW-
SE mid cloud band over Mid Tenn and SE Tenn. Main instability axis
is in W Tenn SEWD into Nrn AL...and should stay out there this
afternoon. The warm advection aloft is also supplying a capping
inversion that is most notable around 800mb on model soundings.
Moist surface air mass should be able to develop cumulus field this
afternoon...but capping inversion should keep cumulus fairly
shallow. Elevated terrain along spine of Appalachians will be the
closest exception as capping inversion is less prevalent. Could get
a few isolated showers/storms to develop near the spine...but will
quickly leave the forecast area in the NWLY upper flow. Keeping
previous set of Max Temps for this afternoon.


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             96  73  94  74 /   0  10  40  40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  93  70  91  71 /   0  10  30  30
Oak Ridge, TN                       93  70  92  71 /   0  10  30  40
Tri Cities Airport, TN              88  66  90  67 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMEG 251445
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
945 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Skies around the Mid-South are mostly clear this morning with
temperatures ranging from the lower to upper 80`s at 9:30 AM. The
need for a heat advisory today is still being assessed. Dewpoints
in the upper 70s should begin to mix out soon as surface
temperatures continue to rise, but if they don`t a heat advisory
is likely. No other updates to the forecast are needed at this
point.

JPM3

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 642 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...issued 341 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016
Another hot and muggy day, yet today should not be as bad as
yesterday. Expecting dew points a couple of degrees lower than
yesterday. So no plans to put out an advisory, however, will have
to watch closely as a couple of degrees more in temperature
and/or dew point will cause a heat advisory.

Models in general agreement on the general pattern. Mesoscale and
short term models don`t agree much on how storms will develop
today and even where they will develop.

In general upper level pattern starts out with a upper high over
the Mid-South beginning on Sunday it starts to retrograde to the
west and northwest flow develops aloft by Tuesday. At the surface
we have the weak frontal system still over the area, yet there
aren`t many clouds associated with it. However, it may be the
trigger for some afternoon isolated thunderstorms today. By Monday
a surface high from the north begins to push into the area being
ushered in by a frontal system. It`s slow moving and finally gets
through by Tuesday evening. And by Wednesday lower temperatures
and dew points move into the Mid-South. This should last to the
end of next week, with temperatures below normal (normal is around
90).
TLSJr

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Cycle

BR at KMKL should start to dissipate 14-15Z. Expecting mostly VFR
conditions for the remainder of this TAF cycle. Cu should develop
with daytime heating at all sites and persist through the afternoon.
Several overnight HRRR runs developed SHRA/TSRA over our eastern TAF
sites, and NAM shows strongest instability in this area as well.
Thus, will include VCTS for KMKL/KTUP for the midday through mid-
afternoon. Can`t rule out TSRA at other sites, but probability is
too low to include at this time. Sct mid-high clouds expected
for the rest of the forecast period after daytime heating ends.

GW

&&


.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 251143 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Memphis TN
642 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...issued 341 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016
Another hot and muggy day, yet today should not be as bad as
yesterday. Expecting dew points a couple of degrees lower than
yesterday. So no plans to put out an advisory, however, will have
to watch closely as a couple of degrees more in temperature
and/or dew point will cause a heat advisory.

Models in general agreement on the general pattern. Mesoscale and
short term models don`t agree much on how storms will develop
today and even where they will develop.

In general upper level pattern starts out with a upper high over
the Mid-South beginning on Sunday it starts to retrograde to the
west and northwest flow develops aloft by Tuesday. At the surface
we have the weak frontal system still over the area, yet there
aren`t many clouds associated with it. However, it may be the
trigger for some afternoon isolated thunderstorms today. By Monday
a surface high from the north begins to push into the area being
ushered in by a frontal system. It`s slow moving and finally gets
through by Tuesday evening. And by Wednesday lower temperatures
and dew points move into the Mid-South. This should last to the
end of next week, with temperatures below normal (normal is around
90).
TLSJr

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Cycle

BR at KMKL should start to dissipate 14-15Z. Expecting mostly VFR
conditions for the remainder of this TAF cycle. Cu should develop
with daytime heating at all sites and persist through the afternoon.
Several overnight HRRR runs developed SHRA/TSRA over our eastern TAF
sites, and NAM shows strongest instability in this area as well.
Thus, will include VCTS for KMKL/KTUP for the midday through mid-
afternoon. Can`t rule out TSRA at other sites, but probability is
too low to include at this time. Sct mid-high clouds expected
for the rest of the forecast period after daytime heating ends.

GW

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 251130
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
630 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today thru Mon)

Much quieter evening than 24 hrs ago. Upper ridge stretches from the
Arklatex southeastward to Florida. Nam and Gfs solutions both show
rather poor cape to cap ratios across our northeastern cwa this
afternoon. More favorable ratios exist across the southwestern areas.
In fact, hrrr showing late afternoon development across that area.
Will include a 20 percent chance of showers and tstms for the
southwest.

On Sunday, cap erosion is much more prevalent. However, dynamics are
absent from the precip equation and will only include a 20 pop. By
Sunday night, upper high begins to move and expand westward. Light
westerlies pick up and a surface boundary will be on approach. The
fropa should occur on Monday afternoon. Therefore, will begin to
increase our pops Sunday night, reaching 50 percent for all areas on
Monday.

As for any strong to severe tstms on Monday, descent pre and main
frontal forcing will be juxtaposed with a high cape and low shear
environment. Looks like a few strong storms will be possible.

As for the near term temps, mid 90s again for today and Sunday.
Dewpoints are looking a degree or two less than on Friday. Thus, no
advisories. Temps will drop 3-5 degrees F by Monday as the clouds
and convection moves in.

.LONG TERM...
(Tue thru Fri)

Temps will finally fall to around seasonal normal values as the work
week progresses, as a sfc front pushes thru the mid state region as
Tuesday progresses also, with slight cold air advection upper
midwest surface high pressure influences building into our region.
After some mainly prefrontal isolated showers and thunderstorms on
Tuesday, dry conditions will persist across the mid state thru Wed
night, with the establishment of a dry nwly flow pattern aloft also
anticipated. Addressed best by the latest GFS solution, a weak
upper level distrubance passage in nwly flow aloft across our area
could bring isolated to scattered light to moderate showers and
thunderstorms activity back to the mid state Thursday into Friday.

$$

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR conditions thru 26/12Z. However, tricky forecast when it comes
to actual cloud coverage, especially CKV/BNA per possible formations/
dissipations of bkn ac/bkn ci ceilings. Nwly upper level flow pattern
approaching 25/12Z supporting bkn AC ceilings CKV/BNA should generally
shift ewd as upper level ridging influences build across region by
25/18Z. Best overall atm moisture content though remains associated in
vicinity of sfc front near TN River as of 25/12Z, which is expected to
drift slowly and slightly ewd as a warm front thru 26/12Z. Any weak
disturbance in flow aloft, aided by diurnal heating influences, could
interact with this moisture pooling, at BNA, and especially CKV, leading
to periodic formations/dissipations of bkn AC/bkn CI ceilings thru 26/12Z.
MVFR to tempo IFR fog CSV expected thru 25/14Z, otherwise SKC conditions
expected, as upper level ridging influences are strongest across this
area. Formation of at least again MVFR fog possible after 26/06Z CSV
per usual low level moisture pooling potential. On the whole, at all
terminals, light north sfc winds will become southeast thru 26/12Z also.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........31




000
FXUS64 KMRX 251116 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
716 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.AVIATION...
With a ridge of high pressure dominating the weather across the
region...VFR conditions will prevail at each terminal through the
period. Other than a few to sct passing mid to high clouds...a
mostly clear sky is expected...with light winds.

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 251116 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
716 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.AVIATION...
With a ridge of high pressure dominating the weather across the
region...VFR conditions will prevail at each terminal through the
period. Other than a few to sct passing mid to high clouds...a
mostly clear sky is expected...with light winds.

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMEG 250841
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
341 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Another hot and muggy day, yet today should not be as bad as
yesterday. Expecting dew points a couple of degrees lower than
yesterday. So no plans to put out an advisory, however, will have
to watch closely as a couple of degrees more in temperature
and/or dew point will cause a heat advisory.

Models in general agreement on the general pattern. Mesoscale and
short term models don`t agree much on how storms will develop
today and even where they will develop.

In general upper level pattern starts out with a upper high over
the Mid-South beginning on Sunday it starts to retrograde to the
west and northwest flow develops aloft by Tuesday. At the surface
we have the weak frontal system still over the area, yet there
aren`t many clouds associated with it. However, it may be the
trigger for some afternoon isolated thunderstorms today. By Monday
a surface high from the north begins to push into the area being
ushered in by a frontal system. It`s slow moving and finally gets
through by Tuesday evening. And by Wednesday lower temperatures
and dew points move into the Mid-South. This should last to the
end of next week, with temperatures below normal (normal is around
90).
TLSJr

&&

.AVIATION...
06z TAF Cycle

For the short term, main challenge will be BR/FG at KMKL. Elsewhere,
should primarily see VFR conditions with possibly some BR at KTUP
toward daybreak. Short-range/high res models develop some SHRA
before 12Z, however chances appeared too slim to include at this
time. Scattered SHRA/TSRA again after about 16Z, with best chances
at KMKL so included VCTS there.

GW

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 250841
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
341 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Another hot and muggy day, yet today should not be as bad as
yesterday. Expecting dew points a couple of degrees lower than
yesterday. So no plans to put out an advisory, however, will have
to watch closely as a couple of degrees more in temperature
and/or dew point will cause a heat advisory.

Models in general agreement on the general pattern. Mesoscale and
short term models don`t agree much on how storms will develop
today and even where they will develop.

In general upper level pattern starts out with a upper high over
the Mid-South beginning on Sunday it starts to retrograde to the
west and northwest flow develops aloft by Tuesday. At the surface
we have the weak frontal system still over the area, yet there
aren`t many clouds associated with it. However, it may be the
trigger for some afternoon isolated thunderstorms today. By Monday
a surface high from the north begins to push into the area being
ushered in by a frontal system. It`s slow moving and finally gets
through by Tuesday evening. And by Wednesday lower temperatures
and dew points move into the Mid-South. This should last to the
end of next week, with temperatures below normal (normal is around
90).
TLSJr

&&

.AVIATION...
06z TAF Cycle

For the short term, main challenge will be BR/FG at KMKL. Elsewhere,
should primarily see VFR conditions with possibly some BR at KTUP
toward daybreak. Short-range/high res models develop some SHRA
before 12Z, however chances appeared too slim to include at this
time. Scattered SHRA/TSRA again after about 16Z, with best chances
at KMKL so included VCTS there.

GW

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 250824
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
324 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today thru Mon)

Much quieter evening than 24 hrs ago. Upper ridge stretches from the
Arklatex southeastward to Florida. Nam and Gfs solutions both show
rather poor cape to cap ratios across our northeastern cwa this
afternoon. More favorable ratios exist across the southwestern areas.
In fact, hrrr showing late afternoon development across that area.
Will include a 20 percent chance of showers and tstms for the
southwest.

On Sunday, cap erosion is much more prevalent. However, dynamics are
absent from the precip equation and will only include a 20 pop. By
Sunday night, upper high begins to move and expand westward. Light
westerlies pick up and a surface boundary will be on approach. The
fropa should occur on Monday afternoon. Therefore, will begin to
increase our pops Sunday night, reaching 50 percent for all areas on
Monday.

As for any strong to severe tstms on Monday, descent pre and main
frontal forcing will be juxtaposed with a high cape and low shear
environment. Looks like a few strong storms will be possible.

As for the near term temps, mid 90s again for today and Sunday.
Dewpoints are looking a degree or two less than on Friday. Thus, no
advisories. Temps will drop 3-5 degrees F by Monday as the clouds
and convection moves in.


.LONG TERM...
(Tue thru Fri)

Temps will finally fall to around seasonal normal values as the work
week progresses, as a sfc front pushes thru the mid state region as
Tuesday progresses also, with slight cold air advection upper
midwest surface high pressure influences building into our region.
After some mainly prefrontal isolated showers and thunderstorms on
Tuesday, dry conditions will persist across the mid state thru Wed
night, with the establishment of a dry nwly flow pattern aloft also
anticipated. Addressed best by the latest GFS solution, a weak
upper level distrubance passage in nwly flow aloft across our area
could bring isolated to scattered light to moderate showers and
thunderstorms activity back to the mid state Thursday into Friday.

$$

21/31

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR with MVFR/IFR fog possible. Fog still looks to be more likely
at KCSV, with MVFR fog developing and some models indicating IFR
and even LIFR possible during the early morning hours. Current obs
at KCSV already have dropping visibilities this evening and look to
continue overnight. KCKV and KBNA have mainly MVFR fog possible
overnight and into the early morning. Fog should clear out by 13Z-
14Z with VFR conditions and light winds during the day tomorrow.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      95  71  94  72  90 /  10  10  20  40  50
Clarksville    94  73  94  72  90 /  10  10  20  30  50
Crossville     89  67  88  69  84 /  10  10  20  40  50
Columbia       96  71  96  72  89 /  20  10  20  20  50
Lawrenceburg   96  71  96  72  90 /  20  10  20  30  50
Waverly        94  72  94  72  90 /  20  10  20  30  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........31




000
FXUS64 KOHX 250824
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
324 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today thru Mon)

Much quieter evening than 24 hrs ago. Upper ridge stretches from the
Arklatex southeastward to Florida. Nam and Gfs solutions both show
rather poor cape to cap ratios across our northeastern cwa this
afternoon. More favorable ratios exist across the southwestern areas.
In fact, hrrr showing late afternoon development across that area.
Will include a 20 percent chance of showers and tstms for the
southwest.

On Sunday, cap erosion is much more prevalent. However, dynamics are
absent from the precip equation and will only include a 20 pop. By
Sunday night, upper high begins to move and expand westward. Light
westerlies pick up and a surface boundary will be on approach. The
fropa should occur on Monday afternoon. Therefore, will begin to
increase our pops Sunday night, reaching 50 percent for all areas on
Monday.

As for any strong to severe tstms on Monday, descent pre and main
frontal forcing will be juxtaposed with a high cape and low shear
environment. Looks like a few strong storms will be possible.

As for the near term temps, mid 90s again for today and Sunday.
Dewpoints are looking a degree or two less than on Friday. Thus, no
advisories. Temps will drop 3-5 degrees F by Monday as the clouds
and convection moves in.


.LONG TERM...
(Tue thru Fri)

Temps will finally fall to around seasonal normal values as the work
week progresses, as a sfc front pushes thru the mid state region as
Tuesday progresses also, with slight cold air advection upper
midwest surface high pressure influences building into our region.
After some mainly prefrontal isolated showers and thunderstorms on
Tuesday, dry conditions will persist across the mid state thru Wed
night, with the establishment of a dry nwly flow pattern aloft also
anticipated. Addressed best by the latest GFS solution, a weak
upper level distrubance passage in nwly flow aloft across our area
could bring isolated to scattered light to moderate showers and
thunderstorms activity back to the mid state Thursday into Friday.

$$

21/31

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR with MVFR/IFR fog possible. Fog still looks to be more likely
at KCSV, with MVFR fog developing and some models indicating IFR
and even LIFR possible during the early morning hours. Current obs
at KCSV already have dropping visibilities this evening and look to
continue overnight. KCKV and KBNA have mainly MVFR fog possible
overnight and into the early morning. Fog should clear out by 13Z-
14Z with VFR conditions and light winds during the day tomorrow.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      95  71  94  72  90 /  10  10  20  40  50
Clarksville    94  73  94  72  90 /  10  10  20  30  50
Crossville     89  67  88  69  84 /  10  10  20  40  50
Columbia       96  71  96  72  89 /  20  10  20  20  50
Lawrenceburg   96  71  96  72  90 /  20  10  20  30  50
Waverly        94  72  94  72  90 /  20  10  20  30  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........31




000
FXUS64 KMRX 250653
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
253 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
A quiet morning across the eastern Tennessee Valley and Southern
Appalachian region...with a mostly clear sky and some patchy light
fog in the sheltered valleys and along lakes. The fog will quickly
dissipate after sunrise...resulting in a mostly clear sky for the
remainder of the day in most spots as a surface high builds in. The
one interesting feature in play for this afternoon and evening will
be a weak stationary front draped across Middle TN...Northern
AL...and back up into the far Southern Plateau and Valley of East TN
and North GA. Think this boundary will sink further SW...taking with
it any mentionable precipitation chances with it for isolated to
scattered diurnal convection. Thus...though a couple of rogue storms
are not out of the question...did not have enough confidence to
mention in the forecast at this time. Given the high thickness
values and abundant sunshine...highs will warm into the low to mid
90s over Central/Southern Valley...and the upper 80s across
Southwest Virginia and far Northeast TN. For tonight...clear...mild
and calm conditions will continue...with a few areas of patchy
Valley fog.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For Sunday...surface ridging moves east allowing moisture to
gradually return...mainly across the Plateau and southern half of
the area. Model soundings show PWs increasing to 1.7 inches at CHA
with TRI remaining less than 1.25inchs...so a marked difference.
Will bring mainly orographic storms in for the Plateau and south
during the afternoon and evening.

Upper ridge breaks down for Monday as upper troughing builds over the
Great Lakes.  A frontal boundary will move into the area for Monday
afternoon and evening. Airmass will once again be moist and
unstable...so good coverage of storms anticipated. High PWs and CAPE
(MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/Kg) will produce some strong to possibly
severe storms.  Damaging winds and heavy rains will be the main
concern. WBZ will be pretty high which will limit hail potential.

A short-wave within Great Lakes/Northeast upper trough will swing
across the area for Tuesday afternoon and evening keeping chances of
thunderstorms going...especially northeast.

Frontal boundary will pull south of the area for Wednesday through
Friday. Model soundings show airmass quite a bit drier.
However...best moist and instability over west North Caroline to
keep slight PoPs near the TN/NC stateline.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             96  73  94  74 /  10  10  40  40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  93  70  91  71 /  10  10  30  30
Oak Ridge, TN                       93  70  92  71 /  10  10  30  40
Tri Cities Airport, TN              88  66  90  67 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

AMP/DH




000
FXUS64 KMEG 250548 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1247 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated for 06Z Aviation

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... issued 1155 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Patchy fog starting to develop across eastern portions of the
Midsouth...which is understandable with the recent rainfall in
the past 18 hours.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1146 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

UPDATE...

Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 257 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

A broken line of showers and thunderstorms has formed near the
Mississippi River and continues to push slowly east into an very
unstable environment in West Tennessee. Current SPC Meso Analysis
places a max of 4000 j/kg of MUCAPE centered over Jackson, TN. Dew
points range from the mid to upper 70s south of a surface front
that bisects the MEG CWA just north of I-40. The most favorable
locations for strong storms this evening will be south of I-40.
However, due to limited amounts of shear, storms should remain
unorganized and any strong storms that do form won`t be able to
maintain their strength for long. Temperatures vary throughout the
region with the highest heat index values at the current moment
occurring just south of the front in locations with less cloud
cover and increased dewpoints due to moisture pooling just south
of the front.

Short term...
Most short term/high res models agree on the Mid-South remaining
dry after 00Z, however due to poor initiation, confidence in this
solution for the overnight forecast is minimal. There should be at
least a few showers and thunderstorms that form along the surface
front as it begins to retreat north overnight. Expect at least two
more days with high temperatures in the mid 90s for Saturday and
Sunday as an upper ridge the builds over the region. Added a
mention of thunderstorms throughout the day tomorrow mainly in the
northern portions of the Mid-South to account for the front
finally lifting out of the region. Heat indices for Saturday and
Sunday should remain just below heat advisory criteria. Even
though a heat advisory may not be issued, this will be dangerous
heat. We urge everyone to take precautions and drink plenty of
water if you plan on attending any outdoor events or plan to
participate in any outdoor activities this weekend.

Long Term...
The best chance of widespread precipitation the Mid-South has
experienced in some time will exist on Monday as a cold front
moves through the region. The Memphis Airport has only recorded
0.06" of rain so far this June, this Summer, this ranks 8th
driest. This number should improve after Monday. The upper ridge
will have degraded by early next week allowing NW flow to set up
over the Mid-South. This will finally result in cooler
temperatures and a less humid airmass prevailing over the
Mississippi Valley Region. There will be several chances of rain
and storms from mid-week on as the several disturbances embedded
in the NW flow aloft impact the region.

JPM3

&&

.AVIATION...

06z TAF Cycle

For the short term, main challenge will be BR/FG at KMKL. Elsewhere,
should primarily see VFR conditions with possibly some BR at KTUP
toward daybreak. Short-range/high res models develop some SHRA
before 12Z, however chances appeared too slim to include at this
time. Scattered SHRA/TSRA again after about 16Z, with best chances
at KMKL so included VCTS there.

GW

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 250513 AAC
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
113 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.AVIATION...
Moist boundary layer conditions from previous rainfall will promote
some light MVFR to IFR fog at KTYS and KTRI early this morning.
After sunrise...this fog will dissipate and a prevailing VFR
conditions with a mostly clear sky and light winds will remain for
through the rest of the period.

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 250513 AAC
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
113 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.AVIATION...
Moist boundary layer conditions from previous rainfall will promote
some light MVFR to IFR fog at KTYS and KTRI early this morning.
After sunrise...this fog will dissipate and a prevailing VFR
conditions with a mostly clear sky and light winds will remain for
through the rest of the period.

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMEG 250455
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1155 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated to add patchy fog.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Patchy fog starting to develop across eastern portions of the
Midsouth...which is understandable with the recent rainfall in
the past 18 hours.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1146 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

UPDATE...

Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 257 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

A broken line of showers and thunderstorms has formed near the
Mississippi River and continues to push slowly east into an very
unstable environment in West Tennessee. Current SPC Meso Analysis
places a max of 4000 j/kg of MUCAPE centered over Jackson, TN. Dew
points range from the mid to upper 70s south of a surface front
that bisects the MEG CWA just north of I-40. The most favorable
locations for strong storms this evening will be south of I-40.
However, due to limited amounts of shear, storms should remain
unorganized and any strong storms that do form won`t be able to
maintain their strength for long. Temperatures vary throughout the
region with the highest heat index values at the current moment
occurring just south of the front in locations with less cloud
cover and increased dewpoints due to moisture pooling just south
of the front.

Short term...
Most short term/high res models agree on the Mid-South remaining
dry after 00Z, however due to poor initiation, confidence in this
solution for the overnight forecast is minimal. There should be at
least a few showers and thunderstorms that form along the surface
front as it begins to retreat north overnight. Expect at least two
more days with high temperatures in the mid 90s for Saturday and
Sunday as an upper ridge the builds over the region. Added a
mention of thunderstorms throughout the day tomorrow mainly in the
northern portions of the Mid-South to account for the front
finally lifting out of the region. Heat indices for Saturday and
Sunday should remain just below heat advisory criteria. Even
though a heat advisory may not be issued, this will be dangerous
heat. We urge everyone to take precautions and drink plenty of
water if you plan on attending any outdoor events or plan to
participate in any outdoor activities this weekend.

Long Term...
The best chance of widespread precipitation the Mid-South has
experienced in some time will exist on Monday as a cold front
moves through the region. The Memphis Airport has only recorded
0.06" of rain so far this June, this Summer, this ranks 8th
driest. This number should improve after Monday. The upper ridge
will have degraded by early next week allowing NW flow to set up
over the Mid-South. This will finally result in cooler
temperatures and a less humid airmass prevailing over the
Mississippi Valley Region. There will be several chances of rain
and storms from mid-week on as the several disturbances embedded
in the NW flow aloft impact the region.

JPM3

&&

.AVIATION...

06z TAF Cycle

Isolated convection cannot be completely ruled out overnight...but
coverage should remain too low to warrant mention in the latest
TAF forecast. VFR conditions will occur at all sites most of the
night...except late tonight where fog will become an issue. VSBYS
reductions are most likely in fog late tonight at KMKL and KTUP.
Light winds are also expected overnight.

Isolated convection will be possible again Saturday afternoon with
the best potential near KMKL where VCTS has been added. Chances
remain too low at the other terminals for mention at this time.
Scattered diurnal CU and blow off cirrus will be likely through
the day with southwest winds at 6 kts or less outside of any
afternoon storms.

Skies should clear out Saturday evening with light winds.

JLH

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 250452
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1152 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Showers with a few rumbles of thunder continue to fire on a
boundary that stretches from Humphreys southeastward into Grundy
County. Expectations are for these storms to continue to fire on
this line for the next couple of hours, but they should remain
below severe criteria due to a lack of wind shear. With the fairly
stationary nature of this boundary, we will need to monitor the
trajectory of these storms. If they continue to train over the
same areas again and again, there could be some localized flooding
issues.  For now, things look to be under control.

Will leave mention of some patchy fog in the wx grids after
midnight as dew point depressions become small and winds go calm.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR with MVFR/IFR fog possible. Fog still looks to be more likely
at KCSV, with MVFR fog developing and some models indicating IFR
and even LIFR possible during the early morning hours. Current obs
at KCSV already have dropping visibilities this evening and look to
continue overnight. KCKV and KBNA have mainly MVFR fog possible
overnight and into the early morning. Fog should clear out by 13Z-
14Z with VFR conditions and light winds during the day tomorrow.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........Barnwell




000
FXUS64 KMEG 250446
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1146 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 605 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

UPDATE...
Updated for Heat Advisory cancellation and to adjust overnight PoPs.

DISCUSSION...

First...heat indices across the Delta counties have fallen to
below 105F this hour...with the likelihood that they will remain
below advisory criteria through tomorrow. Secondly...outflow
boundaries coupled with the weak front will provide a threat for a
pop-up shower or storm throughout the night...so updated forecast
wording for a slight chance across the entire area. The remaining
forecast appears to be on track.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 257 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

A broken line of showers and thunderstorms has formed near the
Mississippi River and continues to push slowly east into an very
unstable environment in West Tennessee. Current SPC Meso Analysis
places a max of 4000 j/kg of MUCAPE centered over Jackson, TN. Dew
points range from the mid to upper 70s south of a surface front
that bisects the MEG CWA just north of I-40. The most favorable
locations for strong storms this evening will be south of I-40.
However, due to limited amounts of shear, storms should remain
unorganized and any strong storms that do form won`t be able to
maintain their strength for long. Temperatures vary throughout the
region with the highest heat index values at the current moment
occurring just south of the front in locations with less cloud
cover and increased dewpoints due to moisture pooling just south
of the front.

.Short term...
Most short term/high res models agree on the Mid-South remaining
dry after 00Z, however due to poor initiation, confidence in this
solution for the overnight forecast is minimal. There should be at
least a few showers and thunderstorms that form along the surface
front as it begins to retreat north overnight. Expect at least two
more days with high temperatures in the mid 90s for Saturday and
Sunday as an upper ridge the builds over the region. Added a
mention of thunderstorms throughout the day tomorrow mainly in the
northern portions of the Mid-South to account for the front
finally lifting out of the region. Heat indices for Saturday and
Sunday should remain just below heat advisory criteria. Even
though a heat advisory may not be issued, this will be dangerous
heat. We urge everyone to take precautions and drink plenty of
water if you plan on attending any outdoor events or plan to
participate in any outdoor activities this weekend.

.Long Term...
The best chance of widespread precipitation the Mid-South has
experienced in some time will exist on Monday as a cold front
moves through the region. The Memphis Airport has only recorded
0.06" of rain so far this June, this Summer, this ranks 8th
driest. This number should improve after Monday. The upper ridge
will have degraded by early next week allowing NW flow to set up
over the Mid-South. This will finally result in cooler
temperatures and a less humid airmass prevailing over the
Mississippi Valley Region. There will be several chances of rain
and storms from mid-week on as the several disturbances embedded
in the NW flow aloft impact the region.

JPM3

&&

.AVIATION...

06z TAF Cycle

Isolated convection cannot be completely ruled out overnight...but
coverage should remain too low to warrant mention in the latest
TAF forecast. VFR conditions will occur at all sites most of the
night...except late tonight where fog will become an issue. VSBYS
reductions are most likely in fog late tonight at KMKL and KTUP.
Light winds are also expected overnight.

Isolated convection will be possible again Saturday afternoon with
the best potential near KMKL where VCTS has been added. Chances
remain too low at the other terminals for mention at this time.
Scattered diurnal CU and blow off cirrus will be likely through
the day with southwest winds at 6 kts or less outside of any
afternoon storms.

Skies should clear out Saturday evening with light winds.

JLH

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 250138
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
838 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Showers with a few rumbles of thunder continue to fire on a
boundary that stretches from Humphreys southeastward into Grundy
County. Expectations are for these storms to continue to fire on
this line for the next couple of hours, but they should remain
below severe criteria due to a lack of wind shear. With the fairly
stationary nature of this boundary, we will need to monitor the
trajectory of these storms. If they continue to train over the
same areas again and again, there could be some localized flooding
issues.  For now, things look to be under control.

Will leave mention of some patchy fog in the wx grids after
midnight as dew point depressions become small and winds go calm.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR with MVFR/IFR fog possible. Winds will calm down this evening
and allow for fog development at all TAF sites. Fog looks to be
more likely at KCSV, with MVFR fog developing later in the evening
and some models indicating IFR and even LIFR possible during the
early morning hours. KCKV and KBNA have mainly MVFR fog possible
overnight and into the early morning. Fog should clear out by
13Z-14Z with VFR conditions and light winds during the day
tomorrow.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........Barnwell




000
FXUS64 KMRX 250129
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
929 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
HARD TO TELL WHERE WEAK COLD FRONT IS NOW LOCATED. BROAD AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE Appalachians. SOME
DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO NORTHEAST PART OF FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHEAST TN HAVE NOW DISSIPATED. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT
ALONG SOUTHERN BORDER. UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE POPS AND CHANGE
WORDING OF SKY TO MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FAR SOUTH. ADJUSTED DEW
POINTS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES NORTH. PATCHY FOG LIKELY TO FORM LATE
TONIGHT. UPDATED FORECAST SENT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMEG 250002
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
702 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...

00z Aviation Discussion Update.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 605 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

UPDATE...
Updated for Heat Advisory cancellation and to adjust overnight PoPs.

DISCUSSION...

First...heat indices across the Delta counties have fallen to
below 105F this hour...with the likelihood that they will remain
below advisory criteria through tomorrow. Secondly...outflow
boundaries coupled with the weak front will provide a threat for a
pop-up shower or storm throughout the night...so updated forecast
wording for a slight chance across the entire area. The remaining
forecast appears to be on track.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 257 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

A broken line of showers and thunderstorms has formed near the
Mississippi River and continues to push slowly east into an very
unstable environment in West Tennessee. Current SPC Meso Analysis
places a max of 4000 j/kg of MUCAPE centered over Jackson, TN. Dew
points range from the mid to upper 70s south of a surface front
that bisects the MEG CWA just north of I-40. The most favorable
locations for strong storms this evening will be south of I-40.
However, due to limited amounts of shear, storms should remain
unorganized and any strong storms that do form won`t be able to
maintain their strength for long. Temperatures vary throughout the
region with the highest heat index values at the current moment
occurring just south of the front in locations with less cloud
cover and increased dewpoints due to moisture pooling just south
of the front.

.Short term...
Most short term/high res models agree on the Mid-South remaining
dry after 00Z, however due to poor initiation, confidence in this
solution for the overnight forecast is minimal. There should be at
least a few showers and thunderstorms that form along the surface
front as it begins to retreat north overnight. Expect at least two
more days with high temperatures in the mid 90s for Saturday and
Sunday as an upper ridge the builds over the region. Added a
mention of thunderstorms throughout the day tomorrow mainly in the
northern portions of the Mid-South to account for the front
finally lifting out of the region. Heat indices for Saturday and
Sunday should remain just below heat advisory criteria. Even
though a heat advisory may not be issued, this will be dangerous
heat. We urge everyone to take precautions and drink plenty of
water if you plan on attending any outdoor events or plan to
participate in any outdoor activities this weekend.

.Long Term...
The best chance of widespread precipitation the Mid-South has
experienced in some time will exist on Monday as a cold front
moves through the region. The Memphis Airport has only recorded
0.06" of rain so far this June, this Summer, this ranks 8th
driest. This number should improve after Monday. The upper ridge
will have degraded by early next week allowing NW flow to set up
over the Mid-South. This will finally result in cooler
temperatures and a less humid airmass prevailing over the
Mississippi Valley Region. There will be several chances of rain
and storms from mid-week on as the several disturbances embedded
in the NW flow aloft impact the region.

JPM3

&&

.AVIATION...

00z TAF Cycle

Isolated convection has developed along outflow boundaries and
have maintained a VCTS at KMEM and KJBR for early in the TAF
period. Convection should diminish quickly this evening with VFR
conditions prevailing for much of the remainder of the forecast
period. There may be temporary reductions in VSBYS in fog late
tonight at KMKL. Light winds are also expected overnight.

Isolated convection will be possible again Saturday afternoon with
the best potential near KMKL where VCTS has been added. Chances
remain too low at the other terminals for mention at this time.
Scattered diurnal CU and blow off cirrus will be likely through
the day with southwest winds at 6 kts or less outside of any
afternoon storms.

JLH

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 250002
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
702 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...

00z Aviation Discussion Update.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 605 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

UPDATE...
Updated for Heat Advisory cancellation and to adjust overnight PoPs.

DISCUSSION...

First...heat indices across the Delta counties have fallen to
below 105F this hour...with the likelihood that they will remain
below advisory criteria through tomorrow. Secondly...outflow
boundaries coupled with the weak front will provide a threat for a
pop-up shower or storm throughout the night...so updated forecast
wording for a slight chance across the entire area. The remaining
forecast appears to be on track.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 257 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

A broken line of showers and thunderstorms has formed near the
Mississippi River and continues to push slowly east into an very
unstable environment in West Tennessee. Current SPC Meso Analysis
places a max of 4000 j/kg of MUCAPE centered over Jackson, TN. Dew
points range from the mid to upper 70s south of a surface front
that bisects the MEG CWA just north of I-40. The most favorable
locations for strong storms this evening will be south of I-40.
However, due to limited amounts of shear, storms should remain
unorganized and any strong storms that do form won`t be able to
maintain their strength for long. Temperatures vary throughout the
region with the highest heat index values at the current moment
occurring just south of the front in locations with less cloud
cover and increased dewpoints due to moisture pooling just south
of the front.

.Short term...
Most short term/high res models agree on the Mid-South remaining
dry after 00Z, however due to poor initiation, confidence in this
solution for the overnight forecast is minimal. There should be at
least a few showers and thunderstorms that form along the surface
front as it begins to retreat north overnight. Expect at least two
more days with high temperatures in the mid 90s for Saturday and
Sunday as an upper ridge the builds over the region. Added a
mention of thunderstorms throughout the day tomorrow mainly in the
northern portions of the Mid-South to account for the front
finally lifting out of the region. Heat indices for Saturday and
Sunday should remain just below heat advisory criteria. Even
though a heat advisory may not be issued, this will be dangerous
heat. We urge everyone to take precautions and drink plenty of
water if you plan on attending any outdoor events or plan to
participate in any outdoor activities this weekend.

.Long Term...
The best chance of widespread precipitation the Mid-South has
experienced in some time will exist on Monday as a cold front
moves through the region. The Memphis Airport has only recorded
0.06" of rain so far this June, this Summer, this ranks 8th
driest. This number should improve after Monday. The upper ridge
will have degraded by early next week allowing NW flow to set up
over the Mid-South. This will finally result in cooler
temperatures and a less humid airmass prevailing over the
Mississippi Valley Region. There will be several chances of rain
and storms from mid-week on as the several disturbances embedded
in the NW flow aloft impact the region.

JPM3

&&

.AVIATION...

00z TAF Cycle

Isolated convection has developed along outflow boundaries and
have maintained a VCTS at KMEM and KJBR for early in the TAF
period. Convection should diminish quickly this evening with VFR
conditions prevailing for much of the remainder of the forecast
period. There may be temporary reductions in VSBYS in fog late
tonight at KMKL. Light winds are also expected overnight.

Isolated convection will be possible again Saturday afternoon with
the best potential near KMKL where VCTS has been added. Chances
remain too low at the other terminals for mention at this time.
Scattered diurnal CU and blow off cirrus will be likely through
the day with southwest winds at 6 kts or less outside of any
afternoon storms.

JLH

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 242356
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
656 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

System currently dropping down through western Tennessee looks
like it will try and clip our southwestern counties during the
afternoon. Will have to include pops for this feature in the early
evening if necessary but for now am thinking of keeping pops out
across the board for tonight and only have patchy fog after
midnight. I`ve got a slight chance of thunderstorms southwest on
Saturday and across the area on Sunday. Upper ridge builds into
our area this weekend so more heat and humidity. Thunderstorm
chances ramp up Sunday night and Monday as front approaches from
the northwest. Tuesday and Wednesday looks basically dry then a
chance for thunderstorms returns Thursday and Friday. The heat
backs off as we get into the work week with a cool down coming
around mid week as upper ridge buckles and retrogrades westward
allowing for an upper trough to develop over eastern U.S. Upper
trough will dominate eastern U.S.through the workweek and into
next weekend. Climate prediction center 6 to 10 day outlook as
well as the 8 to 14 day outlook has below normal temps over our
area through the 4th of July.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR with MVFR/IFR fog possible. Winds will calm down this evening
and allow for fog development at all TAF sites. Fog looks to be
more likely at KCSV, with MVFR fog developing later in the evening
and some models indicating IFR and even LIFR possible during the
early morning hours. KCKV and KBNA have mainly MVFR fog possible
overnight and into the early morning. Fog should clear out by
13Z-14Z with VFR conditions and light winds during the day
tomorrow.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......01/Boyd
AVIATION........Barnwell




000
FXUS64 KOHX 242356
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
656 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

System currently dropping down through western Tennessee looks
like it will try and clip our southwestern counties during the
afternoon. Will have to include pops for this feature in the early
evening if necessary but for now am thinking of keeping pops out
across the board for tonight and only have patchy fog after
midnight. I`ve got a slight chance of thunderstorms southwest on
Saturday and across the area on Sunday. Upper ridge builds into
our area this weekend so more heat and humidity. Thunderstorm
chances ramp up Sunday night and Monday as front approaches from
the northwest. Tuesday and Wednesday looks basically dry then a
chance for thunderstorms returns Thursday and Friday. The heat
backs off as we get into the work week with a cool down coming
around mid week as upper ridge buckles and retrogrades westward
allowing for an upper trough to develop over eastern U.S. Upper
trough will dominate eastern U.S.through the workweek and into
next weekend. Climate prediction center 6 to 10 day outlook as
well as the 8 to 14 day outlook has below normal temps over our
area through the 4th of July.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR with MVFR/IFR fog possible. Winds will calm down this evening
and allow for fog development at all TAF sites. Fog looks to be
more likely at KCSV, with MVFR fog developing later in the evening
and some models indicating IFR and even LIFR possible during the
early morning hours. KCKV and KBNA have mainly MVFR fog possible
overnight and into the early morning. Fog should clear out by
13Z-14Z with VFR conditions and light winds during the day
tomorrow.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......01/Boyd
AVIATION........Barnwell




000
FXUS64 KMRX 242347
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
747 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.AVIATION...
Showers and storms have shifted mostly south and west of East
Tennessee with a couple storms near CHA, so VFR at all terminals
into the overnight hours. With cool front dropping south of the
area, winds should become very light out of the north. Expecting
clouds to clear out at all terminals in the overnight, and
therefore MVFR fog at CHA/TYS and IFR at TRI by morning. VFR
conditions then by mid morning.

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 242347
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
747 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.AVIATION...
Showers and storms have shifted mostly south and west of East
Tennessee with a couple storms near CHA, so VFR at all terminals
into the overnight hours. With cool front dropping south of the
area, winds should become very light out of the north. Expecting
clouds to clear out at all terminals in the overnight, and
therefore MVFR fog at CHA/TYS and IFR at TRI by morning. VFR
conditions then by mid morning.

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMEG 242305
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
605 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated for Heat Advisory cancellation and to adjust overnight PoPs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

First...heat indices across the Delta counties have fallen to
below 105F this hour...with the likelihood that they will remain
below advisory criteria through tomorrow. Secondly...outflow
boundaries coupled with the weak front will provide a threat for a
pop-up shower or storm throughout the night...so updated forecast
wording for a slight chance across the entire area. The remaining
forecast appears to be on track.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 257 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Currently..
A broken line of showers and thunderstorms has formed near the
Mississippi River and continues to push slowly east into an very
unstable environment in West Tennessee. Current SPC Meso Analysis
places a max of 4000 j/kg of MUCAPE centered over Jackson, TN. Dew
points range from the mid to upper 70s south of a surface front
that bisects the MEG CWA just north of I-40. The most favorable
locations for strong storms this evening will be south of I-40.
However, due to limited amounts of shear, storms should remain
unorganized and any strong storms that do form won`t be able to
maintain their strength for long. Temperatures vary throughout
the region with the highest heat index values at the current
moment occurring just south of the front in locations with less
cloud cover and increased dewpoints due to moisture pooling just
south of the front.

Short term...
Most short term/high res models agree on the Mid-South remaining
dry after 00Z, however due to poor initiation, confidence in this
solution for the overnight forecast is minimal. There should be at
least a few showers and thunderstorms that form along the surface
front as it begins to retreat north overnight. Expect at least two
more days with high temperatures in the mid 90s for Saturday and
Sunday as an upper ridge the builds over the region. Added a
mention of thunderstorms throughout the day tomorrow mainly in the
northern portions of the Mid-South to account for the front
finally lifting out of the region. Heat indices for Saturday and
Sunday should remain just below heat advisory criteria. Even
though a heat advisory may not be issued, this will be dangerous
heat. We urge everyone to take precautions and drink plenty of
water if you plan on attending any outdoor events or plan to
participate in any outdoor activities this weekend.

Long Term...
The best chance of widespread precipitation the Mid-South has
experienced in some time will exist on Monday as a cold front
moves through the region. The Memphis Airport has only recorded
0.06" of rain so far this June, this Summer, this ranks 8th
driest. This number should improve after Monday. The upper ridge
will have degraded by early next week allowing NW flow to set up
over the Mid-South. This will finally result in cooler
temperatures and a less humid airmass prevailing over the
Mississippi Valley Region. There will be several chances of rain
and storms from mid-week on as the several disturbances embedded
in the NW flow aloft impact the region.

JPM3

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs

Primary aviation weather concern remains TSRA movement/propagation
between JBR/MEM through mid afternoon.

Environmental winds/steering flow remain weak, leaving outflow
boundary movement and interactions to determine TSRA location and
coverage through 22Z. Barring strong boundary level forcing, warm
temps aloft near MEM may also limit TSRA development. The loss
of surface heating should result in gradual SHRA/TSRA dissipation
over northwest TN toward 00Z.

Outside of TSRA mentioned above, VFR and light southwest surface winds
will prevail through the next 24 hours.

PWB

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 242305
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
605 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated for Heat Advisory cancellation and to adjust overnight PoPs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

First...heat indices across the Delta counties have fallen to
below 105F this hour...with the likelihood that they will remain
below advisory criteria through tomorrow. Secondly...outflow
boundaries coupled with the weak front will provide a threat for a
pop-up shower or storm throughout the night...so updated forecast
wording for a slight chance across the entire area. The remaining
forecast appears to be on track.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 257 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Currently..
A broken line of showers and thunderstorms has formed near the
Mississippi River and continues to push slowly east into an very
unstable environment in West Tennessee. Current SPC Meso Analysis
places a max of 4000 j/kg of MUCAPE centered over Jackson, TN. Dew
points range from the mid to upper 70s south of a surface front
that bisects the MEG CWA just north of I-40. The most favorable
locations for strong storms this evening will be south of I-40.
However, due to limited amounts of shear, storms should remain
unorganized and any strong storms that do form won`t be able to
maintain their strength for long. Temperatures vary throughout
the region with the highest heat index values at the current
moment occurring just south of the front in locations with less
cloud cover and increased dewpoints due to moisture pooling just
south of the front.

Short term...
Most short term/high res models agree on the Mid-South remaining
dry after 00Z, however due to poor initiation, confidence in this
solution for the overnight forecast is minimal. There should be at
least a few showers and thunderstorms that form along the surface
front as it begins to retreat north overnight. Expect at least two
more days with high temperatures in the mid 90s for Saturday and
Sunday as an upper ridge the builds over the region. Added a
mention of thunderstorms throughout the day tomorrow mainly in the
northern portions of the Mid-South to account for the front
finally lifting out of the region. Heat indices for Saturday and
Sunday should remain just below heat advisory criteria. Even
though a heat advisory may not be issued, this will be dangerous
heat. We urge everyone to take precautions and drink plenty of
water if you plan on attending any outdoor events or plan to
participate in any outdoor activities this weekend.

Long Term...
The best chance of widespread precipitation the Mid-South has
experienced in some time will exist on Monday as a cold front
moves through the region. The Memphis Airport has only recorded
0.06" of rain so far this June, this Summer, this ranks 8th
driest. This number should improve after Monday. The upper ridge
will have degraded by early next week allowing NW flow to set up
over the Mid-South. This will finally result in cooler
temperatures and a less humid airmass prevailing over the
Mississippi Valley Region. There will be several chances of rain
and storms from mid-week on as the several disturbances embedded
in the NW flow aloft impact the region.

JPM3

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs

Primary aviation weather concern remains TSRA movement/propagation
between JBR/MEM through mid afternoon.

Environmental winds/steering flow remain weak, leaving outflow
boundary movement and interactions to determine TSRA location and
coverage through 22Z. Barring strong boundary level forcing, warm
temps aloft near MEM may also limit TSRA development. The loss
of surface heating should result in gradual SHRA/TSRA dissipation
over northwest TN toward 00Z.

Outside of TSRA mentioned above, VFR and light southwest surface winds
will prevail through the next 24 hours.

PWB

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 241957
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
257 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

System currently dropping down through western Tennessee looks
like it will try and clip our southwestern counties during the
afternoon. Will have to include pops for this feature in the early
evening if necessary but for now am thinking of keeping pops out
across the board for tonight and only have patchy fog after
midnight. I`ve got a slight chance of thunderstorms southwest on
Saturday and across the area on Sunday. Upper ridge builds into
our area this weekend so more heat and humidity. Thunderstorm
chances ramp up Sunday night and Monday as front approaches from
the northwest. Tuesday and Wednesday looks basically dry then a
chance for thunderstorms returns Thursday and Friday. The heat
backs off as we get into the work week with a cool down coming
around mid week as upper ridge buckles and retrogrades westward
allowing for an upper trough to develop over eastern U.S. Upper
trough will dominate eastern U.S.through the workweek and into
next weekend. Climate prediction center 6 to 10 day outlook as
well as the 8 to 14 day outlook has below normal temps over our
area through the 4th of July.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Surface flow will be westerly to northerly during the forecast
period, with only a minimal chance for thunderstorms. VFR
conditions will prevail, except for late tonight and early
Saturday morning, when patchy BR will likely lead to MVFR
conditions at area terminals, and even the possibility for a
period of IFR visibilities at CSV.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      71  96  74  95  75 /  10  10  10  20  40
Clarksville    70  93  73  93  74 /  10  10  10  20  30
Crossville     65  88  68  88  70 /  10  10  10  20  40
Columbia       72  96  73  94  74 /  10  20  10  20  20
Lawrenceburg   72  95  72  95  73 /  10  20  10  20  30
Waverly        72  94  74  93  75 /  10  20  10  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......01/Boyd
AVIATION........19




000
FXUS64 KMEG 241957
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
257 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Currently..
A broken line of showers and thunderstorms has formed near the
Mississippi River and continues to push slowly east into an very
unstable environment in West Tennessee. Current SPC Meso Analysis
places a max of 4000 j/kg of MUCAPE centered over Jackson, TN. Dew
points range from the mid to upper 70s south of a surface front
that bisects the MEG CWA just north of I-40. The most favorable
locations for strong storms this evening will be south of I-40.
However, due to limited amounts of shear, storms should remain
unorganized and any strong storms that do form won`t be able to
maintain their strength for long. Temperatures vary throughout
the region with the highest heat index values at the current
moment occurring just south of the front in locations with less
cloud cover and increased dewpoints due to moisture pooling just
south of the front.

Short term...
Most short term/high res models agree on the Mid-South remaining
dry after 00Z, however due to poor initiation, confidence in this
solution for the overnight forecast is minimal. There should be at
least a few showers and thunderstorms that form along the surface
front as it begins to retreat north overnight. Expect at least two
more days with high temperatures in the mid 90s for Saturday and
Sunday as an upper ridge the builds over the region. Added a
mention of thunderstorms throughout the day tomorrow mainly in the
northern portions of the Mid-South to account for the front
finally lifting out of the region. Heat indices for Saturday and
Sunday should remain just below heat advisory criteria. Even
though a heat advisory may not be issued, this will be dangerous
heat. We urge everyone to take precautions and drink plenty of
water if you plan on attending any outdoor events or plan to
participate in any outdoor activities this weekend.

Long Term...
The best chance of widespread precipitation the Mid-South has
experienced in some time will exist on Monday as a cold front
moves through the region. The Memphis Airport has only recorded
0.06" of rain so far this June, this Summer, this ranks 8th
driest. This number should improve after Monday. The upper ridge
will have degraded by early next week allowing NW flow to set up
over the Mid-South. This will finally result in cooler
temperatures and a less humid airmass prevailing over the
Mississippi Valley Region. There will be several chances of rain
and storms from mid-week on as the several disturbances embedded
in the NW flow aloft impact the region.

JPM3

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs

Primary aviation weather concern remains TSRA movement/propagation
between JBR/MEM through mid afternoon.

Environmental winds/steering flow remain weak, leaving outflow
boundary movement and interactions to determine TSRA location and
coverage through 22Z. Barring strong boundary level forcing, warm
temps aloft near MEM may also limit TSRA development. The loss
of surface heating should result in gradual SHRA/TSRA dissipation
over northwest TN toward 00Z.

Outside of TSRA mentioned above, VFR and light southwest surface winds
will prevail through the next 24 hours.

PWB
&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-Poinsett-St.
     Francis.

MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Coahoma-DeSoto-
     Marshall-Panola-Quitman-Tate-Tunica.

TN...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Fayette-Lauderdale-
     Shelby-Tipton.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 241918
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
318 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)...
Surface boundary now south of the area with trailing weak cold
front starting to make its way south across the CWA. Winds are
already becoming NW in our SW VA counties and expect this front to
sag all the way south of the area by Saturday morning. With light
winds and some overnight clearing, expect to see areas of patchy
fog throughout the CWA late tonight into tomorrow morning.

As middle level ridge builds over the area on Saturday, not
expecting any precipitation. However, are expecting daytime highs
to be about 5-8 degrees above normal across the entire area. This
coupled with rather light winds will result in heat indexes to 100
deg Fahrenheit across portions of the southern Tennessee Valley by
Saturday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)...A ridge of high
pressure situated over the eastern US on Saturday night will push
east on Sunday...gradually allowing moisture to surge back into the
region. This will result in the potential for some afternoon/evening
terrain-driven storms across the southern half of the area.

A frontal boundary will move into the area on Monday, bringing a
good chance for showers and thunderstorms to the entire forecast
area. Increased moisture (evidenced by high pwats), an unstable
airmass, and frontal forcing will aid in the chances for damaging
winds/heavy rain with these storms during the afternoon and evening
hours. The cold front will push south of the area on Tuesday, with
rain/tstorm chances lessening throughout the day. It should remain
dry on Wednesday with the associated trough axis pushing off the
east coast.

Moisture will again stream into the area on Thursday as a shortwave
northwest of the area deepens the troughing pattern over the eastern
US and sets up a southwest flow across the CWA. Some thunderstorms
will be possible during the afternoon hours.  The shortwave will
swing across the area Thursday night into Friday, bringing another
chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             74  97  73  93 /  20  10  10  30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  70  93  70  92 /  10   0  10  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       70  94  69  93 /  10   0  10  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              66  90  65  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 241805
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
105 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A band of low level moisture, with scattered to broken Cumulus, will
push southward across the Mid-State, in association with a weak
frontal boundary. By mid to late afternoon, expect this band of
moisture to be across the south, where isolated thunderstorms are
forecast. That part of our forecast area also remains under a
marginal risk for severe storms, with heavy downpours and gusty
winds expected to be the main thunderstorm threats.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Surface flow will be westerly to northerly during the forecast
period, with only a minimal chance for thunderstorms. VFR
conditions will prevail, except for late tonight and early
Saturday morning, when patchy BR will likely lead to MVFR
conditions at area terminals, and even the possibility for a
period of IFR visibilities at CSV.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      71  96  72  96  75 /  10  10  10  20  30
Clarksville    69  95  72  96  74 /  10  10  10  20  30
Crossville     66  89  67  89  70 /  10  10  10  20  30
Columbia       72  96  71  96  74 /  10  20  10  20  30
Lawrenceburg   71  96  71  96  74 /  10  20  10  20  20
Waverly        70  95  71  95  75 /  10  20  10  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......01/Boyd
AVIATION........19




000
FXUS64 KOHX 241759
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1259 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Convection continues to march across the mid state this morning.
Cape values do appear to be lower over southern middle TN and thus,
the activity should continue to slowly weaken. Right now, I am
looking to include a pre 1st period with the Zone issuance at 4 am.
Will adhere toward radar trends just prior to that time and adjust
the early morning grid accordingly. Otw, the current positioning of
the boundary is just north of the mid state. As we heat up again
today, isolated to scattered activity will be in the forecast.
However, as some drier air moves across our northern most counties,
some capping is expected in the afternoon. Temperatures today will
be hot again as 850 mb temps remain around 20c. Dewpoints will be a
degree or two less than yesterday so apparent T`s will be slightly
less and generally remain just below 100-102 west of Plateau.

Moving forward, northwest flow will weaken as the upper high builds
over the lower MS valley. Ridge axis will extend northeastward from
the high and cross the mid state on Saturday and into Sunday. In the
lower levels, moisture tap from the gulf appears to be quite
limited. 850 mb moisture really dries out on Saturday so will likely
mix down lower dewpoints. May include hit and miss slt chances of
convection through Sunday, but most areas will be pop free.

Temperatures through Sunday will remain in the hot mid 90s, although
the humidity levels will back off a touch.

In the ext fcst, a descent chance of showers and tstms for Monday as
an eastward moving n-s cold front moves across the mid state. Upper
high retreats back across the southern rockies by the end of the
extended. As this feature amplifies over the western states, a trough
axis will set up over the MS valley. This will provide us with
another chance of showers and tstms late in the extended.

As for the ext temps, relief from the heat looks to be on the way.
We will start off in the oppressive lower 90s. But, once the
aforementioned upper trough axis sets up around the middle of the
week, our high temps will drop down into the upper 80s, with lows in
the upper 60s. Thats seasonal temps for late June.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Surface flow will be westerly to northerly during the forecast
period, with only a minimal chance for thunderstorms. VFR
conditions will prevail, except for late tonight and early
Saturday morning, when patchy BR will likely lead to MVFR
conditions at area terminals, and even the possibility for a
period of IFR visibilities at CSV.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......01/Boyd
AVIATION........19




000
FXUS64 KOHX 241759
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1259 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Convection continues to march across the mid state this morning.
Cape values do appear to be lower over southern middle TN and thus,
the activity should continue to slowly weaken. Right now, I am
looking to include a pre 1st period with the Zone issuance at 4 am.
Will adhere toward radar trends just prior to that time and adjust
the early morning grid accordingly. Otw, the current positioning of
the boundary is just north of the mid state. As we heat up again
today, isolated to scattered activity will be in the forecast.
However, as some drier air moves across our northern most counties,
some capping is expected in the afternoon. Temperatures today will
be hot again as 850 mb temps remain around 20c. Dewpoints will be a
degree or two less than yesterday so apparent T`s will be slightly
less and generally remain just below 100-102 west of Plateau.

Moving forward, northwest flow will weaken as the upper high builds
over the lower MS valley. Ridge axis will extend northeastward from
the high and cross the mid state on Saturday and into Sunday. In the
lower levels, moisture tap from the gulf appears to be quite
limited. 850 mb moisture really dries out on Saturday so will likely
mix down lower dewpoints. May include hit and miss slt chances of
convection through Sunday, but most areas will be pop free.

Temperatures through Sunday will remain in the hot mid 90s, although
the humidity levels will back off a touch.

In the ext fcst, a descent chance of showers and tstms for Monday as
an eastward moving n-s cold front moves across the mid state. Upper
high retreats back across the southern rockies by the end of the
extended. As this feature amplifies over the western states, a trough
axis will set up over the MS valley. This will provide us with
another chance of showers and tstms late in the extended.

As for the ext temps, relief from the heat looks to be on the way.
We will start off in the oppressive lower 90s. But, once the
aforementioned upper trough axis sets up around the middle of the
week, our high temps will drop down into the upper 80s, with lows in
the upper 60s. Thats seasonal temps for late June.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Surface flow will be westerly to northerly during the forecast
period, with only a minimal chance for thunderstorms. VFR
conditions will prevail, except for late tonight and early
Saturday morning, when patchy BR will likely lead to MVFR
conditions at area terminals, and even the possibility for a
period of IFR visibilities at CSV.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......01/Boyd
AVIATION........19




000
FXUS64 KMEG 241757 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1257 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 957 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

UPDATE...
Increased pops to account for shower and storm activity currently
in Northeastern Arkansas. Short term models still agree on
thunderstorms on isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity along
a frontal boundary that will exist across the Mid-South today.
Heat index values should reach heat advisory levels(105-110) in
the counties along the Mississippi River that aren`t impacted by
cloud cover and thunderstorms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 628 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

UPDATE...
Update for 12z TAFs.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Continued hot and humid weather. The frontal system that is has
been sitting just to the north of the Mid-South will have more
interactions with the local weather than it has in the past couple
of days. The biggest impact will be the increased cloud cover this
morning. For today have trimmed back the advisory area for heat,
due to lower dew points expected for today. Belief the areas in
the advisory will just reach criteria for a couple hours before
going back below heat Advisory criteria of 105 degrees. Of
course, if there are more pop-up thunderstorms than expected, this
will completely be wrong as the temperatures may only be in the
low 90s.

The general weather pattern has good agreement between the models.
With an upper level high over the Mid-South through Saturday. Then
the models begin to retrograde the upper level high to the west
and by early next week the area will be under northwest flow
aloft. This allows a frontal system to move through the area
midweek. Expect some precipitation with this frontal system next
week. Yet, not completely sure how much precipitation will get and
it may not be everyone as the frontal precipitation will be in the
form of convection, likely scattered convection.

The other issue for the day is the isolated and scattered
thunderstorms that develop and whether they will be severe, we
have a marginal chance for severe weather across the much of the
Mid-South. However, with the isolated or scattered coverage think
that the severe weather will likely not be very organized and
widespread.

TLSJr

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs

Primary aviation weather concern remains TSRA movement/propagation
between JBR/MEM through mid afternoon.

Environmental winds/steering flow remain weak, leaving outflow
boundary movement and interactions to determine TSRA location and
coverage through 22Z. Barring strong boundary level forcing, warm
temps aloft near MEM may also limit TSRA development. The loss
of surface heating should result in gradual SHRA/TSRA dissipation
over northwest TN toward 00Z.

Outside of TSRA mentioned above, VFR and light southwest surface winds
will prevail through the next 24 hours.

PWB

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-Poinsett-St.
     Francis.

MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Coahoma-DeSoto-
     Marshall-Panola-Quitman-Tate-Tunica.

TN...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Fayette-Lauderdale-
     Shelby-Tipton.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 241757 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1257 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 957 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

UPDATE...
Increased pops to account for shower and storm activity currently
in Northeastern Arkansas. Short term models still agree on
thunderstorms on isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity along
a frontal boundary that will exist across the Mid-South today.
Heat index values should reach heat advisory levels(105-110) in
the counties along the Mississippi River that aren`t impacted by
cloud cover and thunderstorms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 628 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

UPDATE...
Update for 12z TAFs.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Continued hot and humid weather. The frontal system that is has
been sitting just to the north of the Mid-South will have more
interactions with the local weather than it has in the past couple
of days. The biggest impact will be the increased cloud cover this
morning. For today have trimmed back the advisory area for heat,
due to lower dew points expected for today. Belief the areas in
the advisory will just reach criteria for a couple hours before
going back below heat Advisory criteria of 105 degrees. Of
course, if there are more pop-up thunderstorms than expected, this
will completely be wrong as the temperatures may only be in the
low 90s.

The general weather pattern has good agreement between the models.
With an upper level high over the Mid-South through Saturday. Then
the models begin to retrograde the upper level high to the west
and by early next week the area will be under northwest flow
aloft. This allows a frontal system to move through the area
midweek. Expect some precipitation with this frontal system next
week. Yet, not completely sure how much precipitation will get and
it may not be everyone as the frontal precipitation will be in the
form of convection, likely scattered convection.

The other issue for the day is the isolated and scattered
thunderstorms that develop and whether they will be severe, we
have a marginal chance for severe weather across the much of the
Mid-South. However, with the isolated or scattered coverage think
that the severe weather will likely not be very organized and
widespread.

TLSJr

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs

Primary aviation weather concern remains TSRA movement/propagation
between JBR/MEM through mid afternoon.

Environmental winds/steering flow remain weak, leaving outflow
boundary movement and interactions to determine TSRA location and
coverage through 22Z. Barring strong boundary level forcing, warm
temps aloft near MEM may also limit TSRA development. The loss
of surface heating should result in gradual SHRA/TSRA dissipation
over northwest TN toward 00Z.

Outside of TSRA mentioned above, VFR and light southwest surface winds
will prevail through the next 24 hours.

PWB

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-Poinsett-St.
     Francis.

MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Coahoma-DeSoto-
     Marshall-Panola-Quitman-Tate-Tunica.

TN...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Fayette-Lauderdale-
     Shelby-Tipton.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 241715
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
115 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.AVIATION...
Prospects of showers and thunderstorms greatly diminished with
passing of weak sfc boundary to the south of CHA. With this,
expecting VFR at all terminals into the overnight hours. With cool
front finally dropping south of the area, winds should finally
shift to become very light out of the north, by tonight. Similarly,
expecting clouds to clear out at all terminals in the overnight,
and therefore brought in fog, MVFR at CHA/TYS and IFR at TRI by
morning.

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMEG 241457
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
957 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Increased pops to account for shower and storm activity currently
in Northeastern Arkansas. Short term models still agree on
thunderstorms on isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity along
a frontal boundary that will exist across the Mid-South today.
Heat index values should reach heat advisory levels(105-110) in
the counties along the Mississippi River that aren`t impacted by
cloud cover and thunderstorms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 628 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

UPDATE...
Update for 12z TAFs.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Continued hot and humid weather. The frontal system that is has
been sitting just to the north of the Mid-South will have more
interactions with the local weather than it has in the past couple
of days. The biggest impact will be the increased cloud cover this
morning. For today have trimmed back the advisory area for heat,
due to lower dew points expected for today. Belief the areas in
the advisory will just reach criteria for a couple hours before
going back below heat Advisory criteria of 105 degrees. Of
course, if there are more pop-up thunderstorms than expected, this
will completely be wrong as the temperatures may only be in the
low 90s.

The general weather pattern has good agreement between the models.
With an upper level high over the Mid-South through Saturday. Then
the models begin to retrograde the upper level high to the west
and by early next week the area will be under northwest flow
aloft. This allows a frontal system to move through the area
midweek. Expect some precipitation with this frontal system next
week. Yet, not completely sure how much precipitation will get and
it may not be everyone as the frontal precipitation will be in the
form of convection, likely scattered convection.

The other issue for the day is the isolated and scattered
thunderstorms that develop and whether they will be severe, we
have a marginal chance for severe weather across the much of the
Mid-South. However, with the isolated or scattered coverage think
that the severe weather will likely not be very organized and
widespread.

TLSJr

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs

Front draped across west Tennessee and east Arkansas is the focus
for isolated to scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon into
early evening. Have placed VCTS in TAFs to address this possibility.

BELLES

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-Poinsett-St.
     Francis.

MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Coahoma-DeSoto-
     Marshall-Panola-Quitman-Tate-Tunica.

TN...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Fayette-Lauderdale-
     Shelby-Tipton.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 241448
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1048 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...Made minor adjustments to POP and Sky as last of
overnight convection exits the area to the south. Tweaked maximum
temperatures in central valley downward slightly due to morning
cloud cover and overnight rains to 1/2 inch in this area. Expected
high temperatures in this area are still forecasted to be slightly
above guidance.

Main threat for any afternoon and evening convection should be over
the southern border counties. With focusing boundary now south of
the area, and 850 MB winds shifting to west, lee side troughing
east of the Appalachians appears to be more favorable area for any
convective development. Although potential for organized
convection is limited by weak shear and lack of any low level
convergence, there is certainly enough instability, MLCAPE in the
range of 2000-3500 J/kg, over the southern portion of the area,
that we cannot rule out prospects of isolated severe cells in any
development. Greatest threat with any storms today will be damaging
winds. Also, models hint at a weak disturbance moving through
southwest corner of area...including Chattanooga...so keeping
slightly higher POPs in that area. Water Vapor satellite loop seems
to be showing this weak disturbance over west Tenn now...should be
moving across SE Tenn by mid afternoon.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             95  74  97  73 /  30  20  10  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  92  70  93  70 /  30  10   0  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       92  70  94  69 /  20  10   0  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              86  66  90  65 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 241448
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1048 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...Made minor adjustments to POP and Sky as last of
overnight convection exits the area to the south. Tweaked maximum
temperatures in central valley downward slightly due to morning
cloud cover and overnight rains to 1/2 inch in this area. Expected
high temperatures in this area are still forecasted to be slightly
above guidance.

Main threat for any afternoon and evening convection should be over
the southern border counties. With focusing boundary now south of
the area, and 850 MB winds shifting to west, lee side troughing
east of the Appalachians appears to be more favorable area for any
convective development. Although potential for organized
convection is limited by weak shear and lack of any low level
convergence, there is certainly enough instability, MLCAPE in the
range of 2000-3500 J/kg, over the southern portion of the area,
that we cannot rule out prospects of isolated severe cells in any
development. Greatest threat with any storms today will be damaging
winds. Also, models hint at a weak disturbance moving through
southwest corner of area...including Chattanooga...so keeping
slightly higher POPs in that area. Water Vapor satellite loop seems
to be showing this weak disturbance over west Tenn now...should be
moving across SE Tenn by mid afternoon.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             95  74  97  73 /  30  20  10  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  92  70  93  70 /  30  10   0  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       92  70  94  69 /  20  10   0  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              86  66  90  65 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 241213
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
713 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Convection continues to march across the mid state this morning.
Cape values do appear to be lower over southern middle TN and thus,
the activity should continue to slowly weaken. Right now, I am
looking to include a pre 1st period with the Zone issuance at 4 am.
Will adhere toward radar trends just prior to that time and adjust
the early morning grid accordingly. Otw, the current positioning of
the boundary is just north of the mid state. As we heat up again
today, isolated to scattered activity will be in the forecast.
However, as some drier air moves across our northern most counties,
some capping is expected in the afternoon. Temperatures today will
be hot again as 850 mb temps remain around 20c. Dewpoints will be a
degree or two less than yesterday so apparent T`s will be slightly
less and generally remain just below 100-102 west of Plateau.

Moving forward, northwest flow will weaken as the upper high builds
over the lower MS valley. Ridge axis will extend northeastward from
the high and cross the mid state on Saturday and into Sunday. In the
lower levels, moisture tap from the gulf appears to be quite
limited. 850 mb moisture really dries out on Saturday so will likely
mix down lower dewpoints. May include hit and miss slt chances of
convection through Sunday, but most areas will be pop free.

Temperatures through Sunday will remain in the hot mid 90s, although
the humidity levels will back off a touch.

In the ext fcst, a descent chance of showers and tstms for Monday as
an eastward moving n-s cold front moves across the mid state. Upper
high retreats back across the southern rockies by the end of the
extended. As this feature amplifies over the western states, a trough
axis will set up over the MS valley. This will provide us with
another chance of showers and tstms late in the extended.

As for the ext temps, relief from the heat looks to be on the way.
We will start off in the oppressive lower 90s. But, once the
aforementioned upper trough axis sets up around the middle of the
week, our high temps will drop down into the upper 80s, with lows in
the upper 60s. Thats seasonal temps for late June.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Expecting sfc front just to our n to remain quasi stationary generally
across the southern Ohio River Valley through 24/18Z, before finally
pushing southwestward through the mid state region and eventually
southwest of the area by 25/12Z. The northwesterly upper level
flow pattern that we have been experiencing as of late will be
slowly replaced by broad upper level ridging influences aloft from
the plains. Overall, this will result in drier airmass becoming
established across the mid state. Believe current bkn/ovc cloud
coverage from dying MCS across mid state should be able to mix out
by 24/18Z. Can not eliminate the possibility of some iso shwrs/tstms,
but not enough of a chance at or around terminals to mention.
Expect sct cu fields all terminals 24/18Z-25/02Z. Overall atm
moisture should align close to frontal position to our southwest
after 25/00Z, so could experience at the most sct/bkn ci with MVFR
TO IFR VSBYS developing mainly after 25/09Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........31




000
FXUS64 KOHX 241213
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
713 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Convection continues to march across the mid state this morning.
Cape values do appear to be lower over southern middle TN and thus,
the activity should continue to slowly weaken. Right now, I am
looking to include a pre 1st period with the Zone issuance at 4 am.
Will adhere toward radar trends just prior to that time and adjust
the early morning grid accordingly. Otw, the current positioning of
the boundary is just north of the mid state. As we heat up again
today, isolated to scattered activity will be in the forecast.
However, as some drier air moves across our northern most counties,
some capping is expected in the afternoon. Temperatures today will
be hot again as 850 mb temps remain around 20c. Dewpoints will be a
degree or two less than yesterday so apparent T`s will be slightly
less and generally remain just below 100-102 west of Plateau.

Moving forward, northwest flow will weaken as the upper high builds
over the lower MS valley. Ridge axis will extend northeastward from
the high and cross the mid state on Saturday and into Sunday. In the
lower levels, moisture tap from the gulf appears to be quite
limited. 850 mb moisture really dries out on Saturday so will likely
mix down lower dewpoints. May include hit and miss slt chances of
convection through Sunday, but most areas will be pop free.

Temperatures through Sunday will remain in the hot mid 90s, although
the humidity levels will back off a touch.

In the ext fcst, a descent chance of showers and tstms for Monday as
an eastward moving n-s cold front moves across the mid state. Upper
high retreats back across the southern rockies by the end of the
extended. As this feature amplifies over the western states, a trough
axis will set up over the MS valley. This will provide us with
another chance of showers and tstms late in the extended.

As for the ext temps, relief from the heat looks to be on the way.
We will start off in the oppressive lower 90s. But, once the
aforementioned upper trough axis sets up around the middle of the
week, our high temps will drop down into the upper 80s, with lows in
the upper 60s. Thats seasonal temps for late June.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Expecting sfc front just to our n to remain quasi stationary generally
across the southern Ohio River Valley through 24/18Z, before finally
pushing southwestward through the mid state region and eventually
southwest of the area by 25/12Z. The northwesterly upper level
flow pattern that we have been experiencing as of late will be
slowly replaced by broad upper level ridging influences aloft from
the plains. Overall, this will result in drier airmass becoming
established across the mid state. Believe current bkn/ovc cloud
coverage from dying MCS across mid state should be able to mix out
by 24/18Z. Can not eliminate the possibility of some iso shwrs/tstms,
but not enough of a chance at or around terminals to mention.
Expect sct cu fields all terminals 24/18Z-25/02Z. Overall atm
moisture should align close to frontal position to our southwest
after 25/00Z, so could experience at the most sct/bkn ci with MVFR
TO IFR VSBYS developing mainly after 25/09Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........31




000
FXUS64 KMEG 241128
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
628 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Update for 12z TAFs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Continued hot and humid weather. The frontal system that is has
been sitting just to the north of the Mid-South will have more
interactions with the local weather than it has in the past couple
of days. The biggest impact will be the increased cloud cover this
morning. For today have trimmed back the advisory area for heat,
due to lower dew points expected for today. Belief the areas in
the advisory will just reach criteria for a couple hours before
going back below heat Advisory criteria of 105 degrees. Of
course, if there are more pop-up thunderstorms than expected, this
will completely be wrong as the temperatures may only be in the
low 90s.

The general weather pattern has good agreement between the models.
With an upper level high over the Mid-South through Saturday. Then
the models begin to retrograde the upper level high to the west
and by early next week the area will be under northwest flow
aloft. This allows a frontal system to move through the area
midweek. Expect some precipitation with this frontal system next
week. Yet, not completely sure how much precipitation will get and
it may not be everyone as the frontal precipitation will be in the
form of convection, likely scattered convection.

The other issue for the day is the isolated and scattered
thunderstorms that develop and whether they will be severe, we
have a marginal chance for severe weather across the much of the
Mid-South. However, with the isolated or scattered coverage think
that the severe weather will likely not be very organized and
widespread.

TLSJr

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs

Front draped across west Tennessee and east Arkansas is the focus
for isolated to scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon into
early evening. Have placed VCTS in TAFs to address this possibility.

BELLES

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-Poinsett-St.
     Francis.

MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Coahoma-DeSoto-
     Marshall-Panola-Quitman-Tate-Tunica.

TN...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Fayette-Lauderdale-
     Shelby-Tipton.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 241128
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
628 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Update for 12z TAFs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Continued hot and humid weather. The frontal system that is has
been sitting just to the north of the Mid-South will have more
interactions with the local weather than it has in the past couple
of days. The biggest impact will be the increased cloud cover this
morning. For today have trimmed back the advisory area for heat,
due to lower dew points expected for today. Belief the areas in
the advisory will just reach criteria for a couple hours before
going back below heat Advisory criteria of 105 degrees. Of
course, if there are more pop-up thunderstorms than expected, this
will completely be wrong as the temperatures may only be in the
low 90s.

The general weather pattern has good agreement between the models.
With an upper level high over the Mid-South through Saturday. Then
the models begin to retrograde the upper level high to the west
and by early next week the area will be under northwest flow
aloft. This allows a frontal system to move through the area
midweek. Expect some precipitation with this frontal system next
week. Yet, not completely sure how much precipitation will get and
it may not be everyone as the frontal precipitation will be in the
form of convection, likely scattered convection.

The other issue for the day is the isolated and scattered
thunderstorms that develop and whether they will be severe, we
have a marginal chance for severe weather across the much of the
Mid-South. However, with the isolated or scattered coverage think
that the severe weather will likely not be very organized and
widespread.

TLSJr

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs

Front draped across west Tennessee and east Arkansas is the focus
for isolated to scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon into
early evening. Have placed VCTS in TAFs to address this possibility.

BELLES

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-Poinsett-St.
     Francis.

MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Coahoma-DeSoto-
     Marshall-Panola-Quitman-Tate-Tunica.

TN...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Fayette-Lauderdale-
     Shelby-Tipton.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 241126 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
726 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR conditions from -RA and light fog will continue at each
terminal for the next hour or so...before cigs/vis lift to VFR by
mid to late morning...as drier air filters in. With a remnant
outflow boundary in place across the region...a chance for VCTS
will exist at KTYS and KCHA through the early evening. Thereafter...
clouds should break up and a mostly clear sky with VFR conditions
are expected (with the exception of light fog forming at KTRI once
again after midnight).

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 241126 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
726 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR conditions from -RA and light fog will continue at each
terminal for the next hour or so...before cigs/vis lift to VFR by
mid to late morning...as drier air filters in. With a remnant
outflow boundary in place across the region...a chance for VCTS
will exist at KTYS and KCHA through the early evening. Thereafter...
clouds should break up and a mostly clear sky with VFR conditions
are expected (with the exception of light fog forming at KTRI once
again after midnight).

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMEG 240856
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
356 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Continued hot and humid weather. The frontal system that is has
been sitting just to the north of the Mid-South will have more
interactions with the local weather than it has in the past couple
of days. The biggest impact will be the increased cloud cover this
morning. For today have trimmed back the advisory area for heat,
due to lower dew points expected for today. Belief the areas in
the advisory will just reach criteria for a couple hours before
going back below heat Advisory criteria of 105 degrees. Of
course, if there are more pop-up thunderstorms than expected, this
will completely be wrong as the temperatures may only be in the
low 90s.

The general weather pattern has good agreement between the models.
With an upper level high over the Mid-South through Saturday. Then
the models begin to retrograde the upper level high to the west
and by early next week the area will be under northwest flow
aloft. This allows a frontal system to move through the area
midweek. Expect some precipitation with this frontal system next
week. Yet, not completely sure how much precipitation will get and
it may not be everyone as the frontal precipitation will be in the
form of convection, likely scattered convection.

The other issue for the day is the isolated and scattered
thunderstorms that develop and whether they will be severe, we
have a marginal chance for severe weather across the much of the
Mid-South. However, with the isolated or scattered coverage think
that the severe weather will likely not be very organized and
widespread.

TLSJr

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFs

Complex TAF period...with growing concern that convection along
weak front in southern Missouri/Kentucky will drop far enough
south to affect JBR and MKL by sunrise. This activity will weaken
by mid morning...with new convection forming in the afternoon. Not
sure on coverage with the second round so left it to a VCTS or
VCSH remark. Southwesterly winds at 4-8kts.

JAB

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-Poinsett-St.
     Francis.

MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Coahoma-DeSoto-
     Marshall-Panola-Quitman-Tate-Tunica.

TN...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Fayette-Lauderdale-
     Shelby-Tipton.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 240847
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
347 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Convection continues to march across the mid state this morning.
Cape values do appear to be lower over southern middle TN and thus,
the activity should continue to slowly weaken. Right now, I am
looking to include a pre 1st period with the Zone issuance at 4 am.
Will adhere toward radar trends just prior to that time and adjust
the early morning grid accordingly. Otw, the current positioning of
the boundary is just north of the mid state. As we heat up again
today, isolated to scattered activity will be in the forecast.
However, as some drier air moves across our northern most counties,
some capping is expected in the afternoon. Temperatures today will
be hot again as 850 mb temps remain around 20c. Dewpoints will be a
degree or two less than yesterday so apparent T`s will be slightly
less and generally remain just below 100-102 west of Plateau.

Moving forward, northwest flow will weaken as the upper high builds
over the lower MS valley. Ridge axis will extend northeastward from
the high and cross the mid state on Saturday and into Sunday. In the
lower levels, moisture tap from the gulf appears to be quite
limited. 850 mb moisture really dries out on Saturday so will likely
mix down lower dewpoints. May include hit and miss slt chances of
convection through Sunday, but most areas will be pop free.

Temperatures through Sunday will remain in the hot mid 90s, although
the humidity levels will back off a touch.

In the ext fcst, a descent chance of showers and tstms for Monday as
an eastward moving n-s cold front moves across the mid state. Upper
high retreats back across the southern rockies by the end of the
extended. As this feature amplifies over the western states, a trough
axis will set up over the MS valley. This will provide us with
another chance of showers and tstms late in the extended.

As for the ext temps, relief from the heat looks to be on the way.
We will start off in the oppressive lower 90s. But, once the
aforementioned upper trough axis sets up around the middle of the
week, our high temps will drop down into the upper 80s, with lows in
the upper 60s. Thats seasonal temps for late June.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/CKV/CSV...Surface front is closing in on Middle Tennessee from
the north as a pre-frontal band of convection penetrates deeper
into the mid state. The most widespread activity is occurring east
of Nashville and along the Cumberland Plateau, and the HRRR shows
weakening activity lingering there well into the night. Also
expect some MVFR fog at CKV and CSV later tonight and tomorrow
morning. FROPA will occur after 12Z, prompting a wind shift to the
WNW and also VFR cigs for much of the day.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      94  71  96  72  96 /  20  10  10  10  20
Clarksville    93  69  95  72  96 /  20  10  10  10  20
Crossville     88  66  89  67  89 /  30  10  10  10  20
Columbia       94  72  96  71  96 /  30  10  20  10  20
Lawrenceburg   94  71  96  71  96 /  30  10  20  10  20
Waverly        93  70  95  71  95 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........31




000
FXUS64 KMRX 240658
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
258 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
The remnants of an MCS are still moving south across the forecast
area slowly early this morning...with several cluster of moderate to
locally heavy showers and thunderstorms still going. Some of this
activity has been outflow driven...with echo training occurring a
long these boundaries in a few areas...allowing for a quick 1.5 to 2
inches of rain to be picked up. This activity will continue to
propagate south into the Southern Plateau and Valley...but will
weaken as it does so due to a more stable atmosphere and reduced
inflow into the stronger clusters of cells over Middle Tennessee.
Thus...the locally heavy rainfall threat should diminish over the
next couple of hours. However...do think most areas will see some
measurable rainfall...and have categorical to likely PoPs in most
areas because of that.

This initial convection will linger across the Southern Valley in
the early morning hours...before dissipating as it tracks into
Northern Georgia. The sky should begin to become partly to mostly
clear over the course of the day...with the remnant outflow boundary
over the Central/Southern Valley producing some scattered storms
once again by the afternoon. The areas most likely to see rainfall
later this afternoon will be those along and south of Interstate 40.
Given the rainfall overnight...highs may not be quite as high as
yesterday...but should climb into the 90 to 95 degree range in most
areas. A drying and clearing trend will persist overnight...though
some moist boundary later conditions could create some locally
patchy fog around daybreak.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A ridge of high
pressure surface and aloft will build into the southern Appalachians
for Saturday with drier air suppressing convective development.  Hot
conditions can be expected with dangerous heat indices.

For Sunday...surface ridging moves east allowing moisture to
gradually return...mainly across the Plateau and southern half of
the area. Will bring mainly orographic storms in for those areas
during the afternoon and evening.

Upper ridge breaks down for Monday as upper troughing builds over the
Great Lakes.  A frontal boundary will move into the area for Monday
afternoon and evening. Airmass will once again be moist and
unstable...so good coverage of storms anticipated. High
PWs...increasing westerly flow and some dry mid-level air
may produce damaging winds and heavy rains with these thunderstorms.

A short-wave within Great Lakes/Northeast upper trough will swing
across the area for Tuesday afternoon and evening keeping chances of
thunderstorms going.

Frontal boundary will pull south of the area for Wednesday and
Thursday...but slight chance of orographic storms anticipated across
the Plateau and along the Tennessee/North Carolina state-line.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             95  74  97  73 /  30  20  10  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  93  70  93  70 /  30  10   0  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       93  70  94  69 /  30  10   0  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              86  66  90  65 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

AMP/DH




000
FXUS64 KMRX 240658
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
258 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
The remnants of an MCS are still moving south across the forecast
area slowly early this morning...with several cluster of moderate to
locally heavy showers and thunderstorms still going. Some of this
activity has been outflow driven...with echo training occurring a
long these boundaries in a few areas...allowing for a quick 1.5 to 2
inches of rain to be picked up. This activity will continue to
propagate south into the Southern Plateau and Valley...but will
weaken as it does so due to a more stable atmosphere and reduced
inflow into the stronger clusters of cells over Middle Tennessee.
Thus...the locally heavy rainfall threat should diminish over the
next couple of hours. However...do think most areas will see some
measurable rainfall...and have categorical to likely PoPs in most
areas because of that.

This initial convection will linger across the Southern Valley in
the early morning hours...before dissipating as it tracks into
Northern Georgia. The sky should begin to become partly to mostly
clear over the course of the day...with the remnant outflow boundary
over the Central/Southern Valley producing some scattered storms
once again by the afternoon. The areas most likely to see rainfall
later this afternoon will be those along and south of Interstate 40.
Given the rainfall overnight...highs may not be quite as high as
yesterday...but should climb into the 90 to 95 degree range in most
areas. A drying and clearing trend will persist overnight...though
some moist boundary later conditions could create some locally
patchy fog around daybreak.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A ridge of high
pressure surface and aloft will build into the southern Appalachians
for Saturday with drier air suppressing convective development.  Hot
conditions can be expected with dangerous heat indices.

For Sunday...surface ridging moves east allowing moisture to
gradually return...mainly across the Plateau and southern half of
the area. Will bring mainly orographic storms in for those areas
during the afternoon and evening.

Upper ridge breaks down for Monday as upper troughing builds over the
Great Lakes.  A frontal boundary will move into the area for Monday
afternoon and evening. Airmass will once again be moist and
unstable...so good coverage of storms anticipated. High
PWs...increasing westerly flow and some dry mid-level air
may produce damaging winds and heavy rains with these thunderstorms.

A short-wave within Great Lakes/Northeast upper trough will swing
across the area for Tuesday afternoon and evening keeping chances of
thunderstorms going.

Frontal boundary will pull south of the area for Wednesday and
Thursday...but slight chance of orographic storms anticipated across
the Plateau and along the Tennessee/North Carolina state-line.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             95  74  97  73 /  30  20  10  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  93  70  93  70 /  30  10   0  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       93  70  94  69 /  30  10   0  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              86  66  90  65 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

AMP/DH




000
FXUS64 KMRX 240512 AAC
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
112 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.AVIATION...
A broad area of light rain showers and thunderstorms will continue
to impact KTRI and KTYS over the next 2 to 3 hours...producing
localized MVFR conditions. Some light fog will be possible at KTRI
late tonight...due to the moist boundary layer. However...the sky
will be clearing after sunrise as a return as VFR conditions will
prevail through the remainder of the period.

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KOHX 240438
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1138 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

At update time, we`re still waiting for a line of showers and
thunderstorms oriented west to east across southern KY to push
into northern counties of Middle Tennessee. These storms have had
a history of producing damaging straight line winds and even one
cell has had a very impressive supercell structure and strong
rotation associated with it. This line will press south and
southeastward over the next couple of hours and while the severe
weather parameters are not as impressive over the mid-state
(instability waning as the sun goes down and weaker bulk shear
values), we still could see a couple of severe thunderstorm
warnings. The main threat will still be damaging straight line
winds for our northeast counties for the next couple of hours.

Made some updates a little while ago which went to increasing
PoPs, otherwise the current forecast is on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/CKV/CSV...Surface front is closing in on Middle Tennessee from
the north as a pre-frontal band of convection penetrates deeper
into the mid state. The most widespread activity is occurring east
of Nashville and along the Cumberland Plateau, and the HRRR shows
weakening activity lingering there well into the night. Also
expect some MVFR fog at CKV and CSV later tonight and tomorrow
morning. FROPA will occur after 12Z, prompting a wind shift to the
WNW and also VFR cigs for much of the day.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........08




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