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000
FXUS64 KMEG 291608
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1008 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COLD FRONT
HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT
CLOUDS ARE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT AT THIS TIME SO IT WILL TAKE A
FEW HOURS BEFORE WE SEE LESS SUN. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

MUCH MILDER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
WAA WAS TAKING PLACE OVER THE AREA PRODUCING A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING MEASURABLE WILL BE ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE BEFORE SUNRISE.

FOR TODAY...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MILDER WEATHER WILL BE ABLE TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SEEN IN
MISSOURI PASSES THROUGH. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY SUNNY AS
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...FLIRTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
MORNING DIMINISH AND VEER NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LIGHTER
WINDS AND VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MUCH
COOLER LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST
WILL KEEP THE REGION COOL AND DRY TOMORROW.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS TRENDING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR THIS WEEKEND. A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES...WHILE THE UPPER LOW
WEST OF THE BAJA MOVES EAST INTO MEXICO. THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR
AREA WILL BACK FROM NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE
TO SURGE NORTH OUT OF TEXAS...AND THEN A RIGHT TURN EAST. THUS
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...AND WITH
WINDS REMAINING MORE EASTERLY HAVE TRENDED COOLER THAN FORECAST
GUIDANCE. MODELS SHOW EASTERN EXTENT OF RAIN CROSSING MISSOURI
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL REGION OTHERWISE RAIN WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS THE APPROACHING WAVE MOVES CLOSER ON SUNDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A 1040MB
SURFACE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DAKOTAS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
THIS SOLUTION WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR REACHING THE
NORTHWEST MIDSOUTH COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INTRODUCED A
RAIN/SNOW MIX A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BELIEVE
BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE
EVENING HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBFREEZING 925MB
TEMPERATURES MAKING THEIR WAY DOWN INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI BEFORE
PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF...SO WITH THIS...PLAN ON WORDING A SNOW
THREAT IN THE MORNING HWO. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THE BRUNT OF THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION...AND WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
MONDAY WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE COLD AS HIGHS
FOR SEVERAL MIDSOUTHERNERS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOW 30S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO
THE 40S AND LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS
DEPICT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW REACHING THE WESTERN GULF. ANY
PRECIPITATION FOR NOW APPEARS TO STAY JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (29/12Z-30/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED WITH LLWS
THROUGH EARLY / MID MORNING WITH STRONG SW TO W WINDS AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. ANY
RAIN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE KTUP
SITE THIS MORNING. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINING
GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. NORTHERLY
WINDS DECREASING THIS EVENING BECOMING 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 291608
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1008 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COLD FRONT
HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT
CLOUDS ARE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT AT THIS TIME SO IT WILL TAKE A
FEW HOURS BEFORE WE SEE LESS SUN. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

MUCH MILDER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
WAA WAS TAKING PLACE OVER THE AREA PRODUCING A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING MEASURABLE WILL BE ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE BEFORE SUNRISE.

FOR TODAY...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MILDER WEATHER WILL BE ABLE TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SEEN IN
MISSOURI PASSES THROUGH. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY SUNNY AS
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...FLIRTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
MORNING DIMINISH AND VEER NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LIGHTER
WINDS AND VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MUCH
COOLER LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST
WILL KEEP THE REGION COOL AND DRY TOMORROW.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS TRENDING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR THIS WEEKEND. A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES...WHILE THE UPPER LOW
WEST OF THE BAJA MOVES EAST INTO MEXICO. THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR
AREA WILL BACK FROM NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE
TO SURGE NORTH OUT OF TEXAS...AND THEN A RIGHT TURN EAST. THUS
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...AND WITH
WINDS REMAINING MORE EASTERLY HAVE TRENDED COOLER THAN FORECAST
GUIDANCE. MODELS SHOW EASTERN EXTENT OF RAIN CROSSING MISSOURI
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL REGION OTHERWISE RAIN WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS THE APPROACHING WAVE MOVES CLOSER ON SUNDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A 1040MB
SURFACE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DAKOTAS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
THIS SOLUTION WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR REACHING THE
NORTHWEST MIDSOUTH COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INTRODUCED A
RAIN/SNOW MIX A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BELIEVE
BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE
EVENING HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBFREEZING 925MB
TEMPERATURES MAKING THEIR WAY DOWN INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI BEFORE
PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF...SO WITH THIS...PLAN ON WORDING A SNOW
THREAT IN THE MORNING HWO. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THE BRUNT OF THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION...AND WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
MONDAY WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE COLD AS HIGHS
FOR SEVERAL MIDSOUTHERNERS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOW 30S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO
THE 40S AND LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS
DEPICT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW REACHING THE WESTERN GULF. ANY
PRECIPITATION FOR NOW APPEARS TO STAY JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (29/12Z-30/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED WITH LLWS
THROUGH EARLY / MID MORNING WITH STRONG SW TO W WINDS AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. ANY
RAIN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE KTUP
SITE THIS MORNING. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINING
GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. NORTHERLY
WINDS DECREASING THIS EVENING BECOMING 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOHX 291533
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
933 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...AT MID MORNING...SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM THE PLATEAU BACK
TO OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS HAD ENDED AND SKIES
HAD BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THIS PERIOD OF SUNSHINE WILL
SPREAD TO THE PLATEAU AND WILL LAST ACROSS THE MID STATE INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL START TO RETURN AS A COLD FRONT
REACHES OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES EARLY AFTERNOON...AND CROSSES ALL
OF THE MID STATE BY EVENING. WE WILL KEEP A 20 POP FOR MOST AREAS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE GUSTING OVER 25 MPH AT TIMES
FROM THE SW...HELPING WARM TEMPS INTO THE 50S. A WIND SHIFT TO NW
WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH...AND
TEMPS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S AS THE FRONT PASSES.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...LINE OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS WORKING ITS
WAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING, WITH THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT STILL SITUATED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVERS. LOOK FOR
FROPA LATER TODAY, WITH BRISK WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW, AND VFR
CIGS PERSISTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT AT BNA & CKV, DROPPING TO MVFR
AT CSV BY AFTERNOON.

ROSE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS SWEEPING ACROSS WESTERN PARTS
OF THE MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL PUSH ON ACROSS OTHER
SECTIONS AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. BY AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE WEST AND END IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD TODAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. WE`RE ALREADY STARTING OUT THE DAY WITH READINGS
IN THE 40S!

PRECIP MIGHT END AS A SPIT OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU LATE TONIGHT, BUT ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AT BEST.

IT LOOKS LIKE TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WE SEE WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S FOR QUITE A LITTLE WHILE, AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CONSISTENTLY CHILLY WEATHER PATTERN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 TO 10
DAYS.

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY BETWEEN 40
AND 45 DEGREES, WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S
ON SATURDAY.

RAIN BECOMES LIKELY IN THE MID STATE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS A
LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL BE PULLED IN
BEHIND THE LOW AS IT SWINGS EAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW WILL BE LIKELY
OVER PARTS OF EXTREME NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE HIGHLAND RIM AND UPPER CUMBERLAND. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH COULD OCCUR IN
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-24, WITH PERHAPS AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO ALONG THE UPPER CUMBERLAND (IN SIMILAR FASHION TO OUR LAST
SNOWFALL EVENT).

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES, MUCH COLDER AIR ROLLS IN ON GUSTY NORTH
WINDS ON MONDAY, WITH DAYTIME WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE
20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 4 TO 6
DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY MORNING LOWS, WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT
ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

TEMPERATURES RECOVER A BIT ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS NUDGING THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND
BAJA FOR WEEKS ON END WILL FINALLY OPEN UP AND EJECT EASTWARD BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND CREATE A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO, WHICH THEN TRACKS TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS A NOR`EASTER. A
WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN TUESDAY
NIGHT, BUT IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO
TURN ANY PRECIP IN OUR FA TO RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW THAT
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE RATHER WEAK, SO THE CHANCES FOR WINTRY WEATHER
IN THE MID STATE LOOK SOMEWHAT SLIM. HOWEVER, THAT SYSTEM CERTAINLY
BEARS WATCHING OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS, AS DO ALL GULF OF MEXICO
SYSTEMS THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD CANADIAN AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING ATLANTIC COASTAL SYSTEM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,  AND BY
THURSDAY HIGHS IN OUR AREA WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 291533
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
933 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...AT MID MORNING...SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM THE PLATEAU BACK
TO OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS HAD ENDED AND SKIES
HAD BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THIS PERIOD OF SUNSHINE WILL
SPREAD TO THE PLATEAU AND WILL LAST ACROSS THE MID STATE INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL START TO RETURN AS A COLD FRONT
REACHES OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES EARLY AFTERNOON...AND CROSSES ALL
OF THE MID STATE BY EVENING. WE WILL KEEP A 20 POP FOR MOST AREAS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE GUSTING OVER 25 MPH AT TIMES
FROM THE SW...HELPING WARM TEMPS INTO THE 50S. A WIND SHIFT TO NW
WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH...AND
TEMPS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S AS THE FRONT PASSES.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...LINE OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS WORKING ITS
WAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING, WITH THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT STILL SITUATED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVERS. LOOK FOR
FROPA LATER TODAY, WITH BRISK WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW, AND VFR
CIGS PERSISTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT AT BNA & CKV, DROPPING TO MVFR
AT CSV BY AFTERNOON.

ROSE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS SWEEPING ACROSS WESTERN PARTS
OF THE MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL PUSH ON ACROSS OTHER
SECTIONS AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. BY AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE WEST AND END IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD TODAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. WE`RE ALREADY STARTING OUT THE DAY WITH READINGS
IN THE 40S!

PRECIP MIGHT END AS A SPIT OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU LATE TONIGHT, BUT ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AT BEST.

IT LOOKS LIKE TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WE SEE WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S FOR QUITE A LITTLE WHILE, AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CONSISTENTLY CHILLY WEATHER PATTERN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 TO 10
DAYS.

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY BETWEEN 40
AND 45 DEGREES, WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S
ON SATURDAY.

RAIN BECOMES LIKELY IN THE MID STATE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS A
LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL BE PULLED IN
BEHIND THE LOW AS IT SWINGS EAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW WILL BE LIKELY
OVER PARTS OF EXTREME NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE HIGHLAND RIM AND UPPER CUMBERLAND. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH COULD OCCUR IN
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-24, WITH PERHAPS AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO ALONG THE UPPER CUMBERLAND (IN SIMILAR FASHION TO OUR LAST
SNOWFALL EVENT).

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES, MUCH COLDER AIR ROLLS IN ON GUSTY NORTH
WINDS ON MONDAY, WITH DAYTIME WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE
20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 4 TO 6
DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY MORNING LOWS, WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT
ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

TEMPERATURES RECOVER A BIT ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS NUDGING THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND
BAJA FOR WEEKS ON END WILL FINALLY OPEN UP AND EJECT EASTWARD BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND CREATE A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO, WHICH THEN TRACKS TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS A NOR`EASTER. A
WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN TUESDAY
NIGHT, BUT IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO
TURN ANY PRECIP IN OUR FA TO RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW THAT
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE RATHER WEAK, SO THE CHANCES FOR WINTRY WEATHER
IN THE MID STATE LOOK SOMEWHAT SLIM. HOWEVER, THAT SYSTEM CERTAINLY
BEARS WATCHING OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS, AS DO ALL GULF OF MEXICO
SYSTEMS THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD CANADIAN AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING ATLANTIC COASTAL SYSTEM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,  AND BY
THURSDAY HIGHS IN OUR AREA WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMRX 291353
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
853 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
ELEVATED SECTIONS THIS MORNING. RAISED TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MORNING HOURS. WEAKENING SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
RADAR AND OHX SOUNDING INDICATE PRECIPITATION AREA MORE MOIST AND
ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS MODEL DEPICTIONS. WHILE EXPECTING A DECREASE
IN COVERAGE AS THE AREA MOVES EAST...ADJUSTED TODAYS POPS UPWARD
FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  34  45  25 /  50  20  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  52  31  40  20 /  40  40  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       52  31  40  21 /  60  30  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              48  27  35  15 /  60  50  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 291353
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
853 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
ELEVATED SECTIONS THIS MORNING. RAISED TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MORNING HOURS. WEAKENING SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
RADAR AND OHX SOUNDING INDICATE PRECIPITATION AREA MORE MOIST AND
ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS MODEL DEPICTIONS. WHILE EXPECTING A DECREASE
IN COVERAGE AS THE AREA MOVES EAST...ADJUSTED TODAYS POPS UPWARD
FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  34  45  25 /  50  20  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  52  31  40  20 /  40  40  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       52  31  40  21 /  60  30  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              48  27  35  15 /  60  50  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON



000
FXUS64 KOHX 291156
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
556 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...LINE OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS WORKING ITS
WAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING, WITH THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT STILL SITUATED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVERS. LOOK FOR
FROPA LATER TODAY, WITH BRISK WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW, AND VFR
CIGS PERSISTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT AT BNA & CKV, DROPPING TO MVFR
AT CSV BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS SWEEPING ACROSS WESTERN PARTS
OF THE MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL PUSH ON ACROSS OTHER
SECTIONS AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. BY AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE WEST AND END IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD TODAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. WE`RE ALREADY STARTING OUT THE DAY WITH READINGS
IN THE 40S!

PRECIP MIGHT END AS A SPIT OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU LATE TONIGHT, BUT ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AT BEST.

IT LOOKS LIKE TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WE SEE WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S FOR QUITE A LITTLE WHILE, AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CONSISTENTLY CHILLY WEATHER PATTERN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 TO 10
DAYS.

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY BETWEEN 40
AND 45 DEGREES, WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S
ON SATURDAY.

RAIN BECOMES LIKELY IN THE MID STATE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS A
LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL BE PULLED IN
BEHIND THE LOW AS IT SWINGS EAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW WILL BE LIKELY
OVER PARTS OF EXTREME NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE HIGHLAND RIM AND UPPER CUMBERLAND. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH COULD OCCUR IN
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-24, WITH PERHAPS AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO ALONG THE UPPER CUMBERLAND (IN SIMILAR FASHION TO OUR LAST
SNOWFALL EVENT).

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES, MUCH COLDER AIR ROLLS IN ON GUSTY NORTH
WINDS ON MONDAY, WITH DAYTIME WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE
20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 4 TO 6
DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY MORNING LOWS, WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT
ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

TEMPERATURES RECOVER A BIT ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS NUDGING THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND
BAJA FOR WEEKS ON END WILL FINALLY OPEN UP AND EJECT EASTWARD BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND CREATE A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO, WHICH THEN TRACKS TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS A NOR`EASTER. A
WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN TUESDAY
NIGHT, BUT IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO
TURN ANY PRECIP IN OUR FA TO RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW THAT
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE RATHER WEAK, SO THE CHANCES FOR WINTRY WEATHER
IN THE MID STATE LOOK SOMEWHAT SLIM. HOWEVER, THAT SYSTEM CERTAINLY
BEARS WATCHING OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS, AS DO ALL GULF OF MEXICO
SYSTEMS THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD CANADIAN AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING ATLANTIC COASTAL SYSTEM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,  AND BY
THURSDAY HIGHS IN OUR AREA WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 291156
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
556 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...LINE OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS WORKING ITS
WAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING, WITH THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT STILL SITUATED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVERS. LOOK FOR
FROPA LATER TODAY, WITH BRISK WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW, AND VFR
CIGS PERSISTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT AT BNA & CKV, DROPPING TO MVFR
AT CSV BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS SWEEPING ACROSS WESTERN PARTS
OF THE MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL PUSH ON ACROSS OTHER
SECTIONS AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. BY AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE WEST AND END IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD TODAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. WE`RE ALREADY STARTING OUT THE DAY WITH READINGS
IN THE 40S!

PRECIP MIGHT END AS A SPIT OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU LATE TONIGHT, BUT ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AT BEST.

IT LOOKS LIKE TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WE SEE WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S FOR QUITE A LITTLE WHILE, AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CONSISTENTLY CHILLY WEATHER PATTERN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 TO 10
DAYS.

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY BETWEEN 40
AND 45 DEGREES, WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S
ON SATURDAY.

RAIN BECOMES LIKELY IN THE MID STATE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS A
LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL BE PULLED IN
BEHIND THE LOW AS IT SWINGS EAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW WILL BE LIKELY
OVER PARTS OF EXTREME NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE HIGHLAND RIM AND UPPER CUMBERLAND. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH COULD OCCUR IN
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-24, WITH PERHAPS AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO ALONG THE UPPER CUMBERLAND (IN SIMILAR FASHION TO OUR LAST
SNOWFALL EVENT).

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES, MUCH COLDER AIR ROLLS IN ON GUSTY NORTH
WINDS ON MONDAY, WITH DAYTIME WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE
20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 4 TO 6
DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY MORNING LOWS, WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT
ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

TEMPERATURES RECOVER A BIT ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS NUDGING THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND
BAJA FOR WEEKS ON END WILL FINALLY OPEN UP AND EJECT EASTWARD BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND CREATE A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO, WHICH THEN TRACKS TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS A NOR`EASTER. A
WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN TUESDAY
NIGHT, BUT IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO
TURN ANY PRECIP IN OUR FA TO RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW THAT
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE RATHER WEAK, SO THE CHANCES FOR WINTRY WEATHER
IN THE MID STATE LOOK SOMEWHAT SLIM. HOWEVER, THAT SYSTEM CERTAINLY
BEARS WATCHING OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS, AS DO ALL GULF OF MEXICO
SYSTEMS THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD CANADIAN AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING ATLANTIC COASTAL SYSTEM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,  AND BY
THURSDAY HIGHS IN OUR AREA WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 291156
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
556 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...LINE OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS WORKING ITS
WAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING, WITH THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT STILL SITUATED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVERS. LOOK FOR
FROPA LATER TODAY, WITH BRISK WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW, AND VFR
CIGS PERSISTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT AT BNA & CKV, DROPPING TO MVFR
AT CSV BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS SWEEPING ACROSS WESTERN PARTS
OF THE MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL PUSH ON ACROSS OTHER
SECTIONS AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. BY AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE WEST AND END IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD TODAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. WE`RE ALREADY STARTING OUT THE DAY WITH READINGS
IN THE 40S!

PRECIP MIGHT END AS A SPIT OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU LATE TONIGHT, BUT ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AT BEST.

IT LOOKS LIKE TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WE SEE WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S FOR QUITE A LITTLE WHILE, AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CONSISTENTLY CHILLY WEATHER PATTERN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 TO 10
DAYS.

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY BETWEEN 40
AND 45 DEGREES, WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S
ON SATURDAY.

RAIN BECOMES LIKELY IN THE MID STATE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS A
LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL BE PULLED IN
BEHIND THE LOW AS IT SWINGS EAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW WILL BE LIKELY
OVER PARTS OF EXTREME NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE HIGHLAND RIM AND UPPER CUMBERLAND. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH COULD OCCUR IN
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-24, WITH PERHAPS AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO ALONG THE UPPER CUMBERLAND (IN SIMILAR FASHION TO OUR LAST
SNOWFALL EVENT).

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES, MUCH COLDER AIR ROLLS IN ON GUSTY NORTH
WINDS ON MONDAY, WITH DAYTIME WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE
20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 4 TO 6
DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY MORNING LOWS, WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT
ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

TEMPERATURES RECOVER A BIT ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS NUDGING THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND
BAJA FOR WEEKS ON END WILL FINALLY OPEN UP AND EJECT EASTWARD BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND CREATE A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO, WHICH THEN TRACKS TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS A NOR`EASTER. A
WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN TUESDAY
NIGHT, BUT IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO
TURN ANY PRECIP IN OUR FA TO RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW THAT
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE RATHER WEAK, SO THE CHANCES FOR WINTRY WEATHER
IN THE MID STATE LOOK SOMEWHAT SLIM. HOWEVER, THAT SYSTEM CERTAINLY
BEARS WATCHING OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS, AS DO ALL GULF OF MEXICO
SYSTEMS THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD CANADIAN AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING ATLANTIC COASTAL SYSTEM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,  AND BY
THURSDAY HIGHS IN OUR AREA WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 291156
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
556 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...LINE OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS WORKING ITS
WAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING, WITH THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT STILL SITUATED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVERS. LOOK FOR
FROPA LATER TODAY, WITH BRISK WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW, AND VFR
CIGS PERSISTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT AT BNA & CKV, DROPPING TO MVFR
AT CSV BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS SWEEPING ACROSS WESTERN PARTS
OF THE MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL PUSH ON ACROSS OTHER
SECTIONS AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. BY AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE WEST AND END IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD TODAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. WE`RE ALREADY STARTING OUT THE DAY WITH READINGS
IN THE 40S!

PRECIP MIGHT END AS A SPIT OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU LATE TONIGHT, BUT ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AT BEST.

IT LOOKS LIKE TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WE SEE WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S FOR QUITE A LITTLE WHILE, AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CONSISTENTLY CHILLY WEATHER PATTERN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 TO 10
DAYS.

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY BETWEEN 40
AND 45 DEGREES, WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S
ON SATURDAY.

RAIN BECOMES LIKELY IN THE MID STATE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS A
LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL BE PULLED IN
BEHIND THE LOW AS IT SWINGS EAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW WILL BE LIKELY
OVER PARTS OF EXTREME NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE HIGHLAND RIM AND UPPER CUMBERLAND. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH COULD OCCUR IN
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-24, WITH PERHAPS AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO ALONG THE UPPER CUMBERLAND (IN SIMILAR FASHION TO OUR LAST
SNOWFALL EVENT).

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES, MUCH COLDER AIR ROLLS IN ON GUSTY NORTH
WINDS ON MONDAY, WITH DAYTIME WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE
20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 4 TO 6
DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY MORNING LOWS, WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT
ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

TEMPERATURES RECOVER A BIT ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS NUDGING THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND
BAJA FOR WEEKS ON END WILL FINALLY OPEN UP AND EJECT EASTWARD BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND CREATE A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO, WHICH THEN TRACKS TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS A NOR`EASTER. A
WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN TUESDAY
NIGHT, BUT IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO
TURN ANY PRECIP IN OUR FA TO RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW THAT
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE RATHER WEAK, SO THE CHANCES FOR WINTRY WEATHER
IN THE MID STATE LOOK SOMEWHAT SLIM. HOWEVER, THAT SYSTEM CERTAINLY
BEARS WATCHING OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS, AS DO ALL GULF OF MEXICO
SYSTEMS THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD CANADIAN AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING ATLANTIC COASTAL SYSTEM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,  AND BY
THURSDAY HIGHS IN OUR AREA WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KMRX 291132
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
630 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...AHEAD OF AN APPRAOCHING COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND A BAND OF MID TO LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.  COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED AND WILL ONLY MENTION -RA AT TRI FOR NOW.  ANOTHER BAND OF
CLOUDS ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  A FEW RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL OVERNIGHT...FAVORING NORTHERN
AREAS.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB



000
FXUS64 KMRX 291132
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
630 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...AHEAD OF AN APPRAOCHING COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND A BAND OF MID TO LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.  COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED AND WILL ONLY MENTION -RA AT TRI FOR NOW.  ANOTHER BAND OF
CLOUDS ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  A FEW RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL OVERNIGHT...FAVORING NORTHERN
AREAS.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB



000
FXUS64 KMRX 291132
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
630 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...AHEAD OF AN APPRAOCHING COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND A BAND OF MID TO LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.  COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED AND WILL ONLY MENTION -RA AT TRI FOR NOW.  ANOTHER BAND OF
CLOUDS ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  A FEW RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL OVERNIGHT...FAVORING NORTHERN
AREAS.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB



000
FXUS64 KMRX 291132
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
630 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...AHEAD OF AN APPRAOCHING COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND A BAND OF MID TO LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.  COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED AND WILL ONLY MENTION -RA AT TRI FOR NOW.  ANOTHER BAND OF
CLOUDS ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  A FEW RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL OVERNIGHT...FAVORING NORTHERN
AREAS.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB



000
FXUS64 KMEG 291109 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
509 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 328 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

MUCH MILDER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
WAA WAS TAKING PLACE OVER THE AREA PRODUCING A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING MEASURABLE WILL BE ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE BEFORE SUNRISE.

FOR TODAY...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MILDER WEATHER WILL BE ABLE TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SEEN IN
MISSOURI PASSES THROUGH. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY SUNNY AS
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...FLIRTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
MORNING DIMINISH AND VEER NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LIGHTER
WINDS AND VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MUCH
COOLER LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST
WILL KEEP THE REGION COOL AND DRY TOMORROW.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS TRENDING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR THIS WEEKEND. A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES...WHILE THE UPPER LOW
WEST OF THE BAJA MOVES EAST INTO MEXICO. THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR
AREA WILL BACK FROM NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE
TO SURGE NORTH OUT OF TEXAS...AND THEN A RIGHT TURN EAST. THUS
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...AND WITH
WINDS REMAINING MORE EASTERLY HAVE TRENDED COOLER THAN FORECAST
GUIDANCE. MODELS SHOW EASTERN EXTENT OF RAIN CROSSING MISSOURI
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL REGION OTHERWISE RAIN WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS THE APPROACHING WAVE MOVES CLOSER ON SUNDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A 1040MB
SURFACE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DAKOTAS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
THIS SOLUTION WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR REACHING THE
NORTHWEST MIDSOUTH COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INTRODUCED A
RAIN/SNOW MIX A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BELIEVE
BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE
EVENING HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBFREEZING 925MB
TEMPERATURES MAKING THEIR WAY DOWN INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI BEFORE
PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF...SO WITH THIS...PLAN ON WORDING A SNOW
THREAT IN THE MORNING HWO. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THE BRUNT OF THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION...AND WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS...WINDCHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
MONDAY WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE COLD AS HIGHS
FOR SEVERAL MIDSOUTHERNERS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOW 30S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO
THE 40S AND LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS
DEPICT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW REACHING THE WESTERN GULF. ANY
PRECIPITATION FOR NOW APPEARS TO STAY JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (29/12Z-30/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED WITH LLWS
THROUGH EARLY / MID MORNING WITH STRONG SW TO W WINDS AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. ANY
RAIN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE KTUP
SITE THIS MORNING. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINING
GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. NORTHERLY
WINDS DECREASING THIS EVENING BECOMING 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 291109 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
509 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 328 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

MUCH MILDER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
WAA WAS TAKING PLACE OVER THE AREA PRODUCING A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING MEASURABLE WILL BE ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE BEFORE SUNRISE.

FOR TODAY...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MILDER WEATHER WILL BE ABLE TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SEEN IN
MISSOURI PASSES THROUGH. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY SUNNY AS
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...FLIRTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
MORNING DIMINISH AND VEER NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LIGHTER
WINDS AND VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MUCH
COOLER LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST
WILL KEEP THE REGION COOL AND DRY TOMORROW.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS TRENDING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR THIS WEEKEND. A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES...WHILE THE UPPER LOW
WEST OF THE BAJA MOVES EAST INTO MEXICO. THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR
AREA WILL BACK FROM NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE
TO SURGE NORTH OUT OF TEXAS...AND THEN A RIGHT TURN EAST. THUS
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...AND WITH
WINDS REMAINING MORE EASTERLY HAVE TRENDED COOLER THAN FORECAST
GUIDANCE. MODELS SHOW EASTERN EXTENT OF RAIN CROSSING MISSOURI
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL REGION OTHERWISE RAIN WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS THE APPROACHING WAVE MOVES CLOSER ON SUNDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A 1040MB
SURFACE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DAKOTAS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
THIS SOLUTION WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR REACHING THE
NORTHWEST MIDSOUTH COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INTRODUCED A
RAIN/SNOW MIX A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BELIEVE
BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE
EVENING HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBFREEZING 925MB
TEMPERATURES MAKING THEIR WAY DOWN INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI BEFORE
PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF...SO WITH THIS...PLAN ON WORDING A SNOW
THREAT IN THE MORNING HWO. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THE BRUNT OF THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION...AND WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS...WINDCHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
MONDAY WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE COLD AS HIGHS
FOR SEVERAL MIDSOUTHERNERS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOW 30S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO
THE 40S AND LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS
DEPICT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW REACHING THE WESTERN GULF. ANY
PRECIPITATION FOR NOW APPEARS TO STAY JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (29/12Z-30/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED WITH LLWS
THROUGH EARLY / MID MORNING WITH STRONG SW TO W WINDS AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. ANY
RAIN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE KTUP
SITE THIS MORNING. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINING
GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. NORTHERLY
WINDS DECREASING THIS EVENING BECOMING 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 291109 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
509 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 328 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

MUCH MILDER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
WAA WAS TAKING PLACE OVER THE AREA PRODUCING A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING MEASURABLE WILL BE ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE BEFORE SUNRISE.

FOR TODAY...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MILDER WEATHER WILL BE ABLE TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SEEN IN
MISSOURI PASSES THROUGH. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY SUNNY AS
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...FLIRTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
MORNING DIMINISH AND VEER NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LIGHTER
WINDS AND VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MUCH
COOLER LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST
WILL KEEP THE REGION COOL AND DRY TOMORROW.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS TRENDING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR THIS WEEKEND. A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES...WHILE THE UPPER LOW
WEST OF THE BAJA MOVES EAST INTO MEXICO. THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR
AREA WILL BACK FROM NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE
TO SURGE NORTH OUT OF TEXAS...AND THEN A RIGHT TURN EAST. THUS
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...AND WITH
WINDS REMAINING MORE EASTERLY HAVE TRENDED COOLER THAN FORECAST
GUIDANCE. MODELS SHOW EASTERN EXTENT OF RAIN CROSSING MISSOURI
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL REGION OTHERWISE RAIN WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS THE APPROACHING WAVE MOVES CLOSER ON SUNDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A 1040MB
SURFACE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DAKOTAS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
THIS SOLUTION WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR REACHING THE
NORTHWEST MIDSOUTH COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INTRODUCED A
RAIN/SNOW MIX A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BELIEVE
BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE
EVENING HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBFREEZING 925MB
TEMPERATURES MAKING THEIR WAY DOWN INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI BEFORE
PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF...SO WITH THIS...PLAN ON WORDING A SNOW
THREAT IN THE MORNING HWO. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THE BRUNT OF THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION...AND WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS...WINDCHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
MONDAY WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE COLD AS HIGHS
FOR SEVERAL MIDSOUTHERNERS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOW 30S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO
THE 40S AND LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS
DEPICT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW REACHING THE WESTERN GULF. ANY
PRECIPITATION FOR NOW APPEARS TO STAY JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (29/12Z-30/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED WITH LLWS
THROUGH EARLY / MID MORNING WITH STRONG SW TO W WINDS AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. ANY
RAIN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE KTUP
SITE THIS MORNING. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINING
GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. NORTHERLY
WINDS DECREASING THIS EVENING BECOMING 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 291109 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
509 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 328 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

MUCH MILDER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
WAA WAS TAKING PLACE OVER THE AREA PRODUCING A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING MEASURABLE WILL BE ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE BEFORE SUNRISE.

FOR TODAY...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MILDER WEATHER WILL BE ABLE TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SEEN IN
MISSOURI PASSES THROUGH. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY SUNNY AS
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...FLIRTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
MORNING DIMINISH AND VEER NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LIGHTER
WINDS AND VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MUCH
COOLER LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST
WILL KEEP THE REGION COOL AND DRY TOMORROW.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS TRENDING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR THIS WEEKEND. A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES...WHILE THE UPPER LOW
WEST OF THE BAJA MOVES EAST INTO MEXICO. THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR
AREA WILL BACK FROM NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE
TO SURGE NORTH OUT OF TEXAS...AND THEN A RIGHT TURN EAST. THUS
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...AND WITH
WINDS REMAINING MORE EASTERLY HAVE TRENDED COOLER THAN FORECAST
GUIDANCE. MODELS SHOW EASTERN EXTENT OF RAIN CROSSING MISSOURI
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL REGION OTHERWISE RAIN WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS THE APPROACHING WAVE MOVES CLOSER ON SUNDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A 1040MB
SURFACE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DAKOTAS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
THIS SOLUTION WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR REACHING THE
NORTHWEST MIDSOUTH COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INTRODUCED A
RAIN/SNOW MIX A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BELIEVE
BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE
EVENING HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBFREEZING 925MB
TEMPERATURES MAKING THEIR WAY DOWN INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI BEFORE
PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF...SO WITH THIS...PLAN ON WORDING A SNOW
THREAT IN THE MORNING HWO. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THE BRUNT OF THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION...AND WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS...WINDCHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
MONDAY WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE COLD AS HIGHS
FOR SEVERAL MIDSOUTHERNERS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOW 30S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO
THE 40S AND LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS
DEPICT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW REACHING THE WESTERN GULF. ANY
PRECIPITATION FOR NOW APPEARS TO STAY JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (29/12Z-30/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED WITH LLWS
THROUGH EARLY / MID MORNING WITH STRONG SW TO W WINDS AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. ANY
RAIN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE KTUP
SITE THIS MORNING. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINING
GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. NORTHERLY
WINDS DECREASING THIS EVENING BECOMING 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 291007
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
407 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS SWEEPING ACROSS WESTERN PARTS
OF THE MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL PUSH ON ACROSS OTHER
SECTIONS AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. BY AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE WEST AND END IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD TODAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. WE`RE ALREADY STARTING OUT THE DAY WITH READINGS
IN THE 40S!

PRECIP MIGHT END AS A SPIT OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU LATE TONIGHT, BUT ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AT BEST.

IT LOOKS LIKE TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WE SEE WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S FOR QUITE A LITTLE WHILE, AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CONSISTENTLY CHILLY WEATHER PATTERN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 TO 10
DAYS.

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY BETWEEN 40
AND 45 DEGREES, WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S
ON SATURDAY.

RAIN BECOMES LIKELY IN THE MID STATE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS A
LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL BE PULLED IN
BEHIND THE LOW AS IT SWINGS EAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW WILL BE LIKELY
OVER PARTS OF EXTREME NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE HIGHLAND RIM AND UPPER CUMBERLAND. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH COULD OCCUR IN
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-24, WITH PERHAPS AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO ALONG THE UPPER CUMBERLAND (IN SIMILAR FASHION TO OUR LAST
SNOWFALL EVENT).

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES, MUCH COLDER AIR ROLLS IN ON GUSTY NORTH
WINDS ON MONDAY, WITH DAYTIME WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE
20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 4 TO 6
DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY MORNING LOWS, WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT
ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

TEMPERATURES RECOVER A BIT ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS NUDGING THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND
BAJA FOR WEEKS ON END WILL FINALLY OPEN UP AND EJECT EASTWARD BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND CREATE A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO, WHICH THEN TRACKS TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS A NOR`EASTER. A
WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN TUESDAY
NIGHT, BUT IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO
TURN ANY PRECIP IN OUR FA TO RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW THAT
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE RATHER WEAK, SO THE CHANCES FOR WINTRY WEATHER
IN THE MID STATE LOOK SOMEWHAT SLIM. HOWEVER, THAT SYSTEM CERTAINLY
BEARS WATCHING OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS, AS DO ALL GULF OF MEXICO
SYSTEMS THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD CANADIAN AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING ATLANTIC COASTAL SYSTEM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,  AND BY
THURSDAY HIGHS IN OUR AREA WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      57  29  43  25 /  30  10  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    55  27  42  24 /  30  10   0   0
CROSSVILLE     50  28  38  21 /  40  30  05  05
COLUMBIA       57  31  44  26 /  30  10   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   57  33  45  27 /  30  10   0   0
WAVERLY        57  29  44  26 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 291007
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
407 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS SWEEPING ACROSS WESTERN PARTS
OF THE MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL PUSH ON ACROSS OTHER
SECTIONS AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. BY AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE WEST AND END IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD TODAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. WE`RE ALREADY STARTING OUT THE DAY WITH READINGS
IN THE 40S!

PRECIP MIGHT END AS A SPIT OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU LATE TONIGHT, BUT ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AT BEST.

IT LOOKS LIKE TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WE SEE WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S FOR QUITE A LITTLE WHILE, AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CONSISTENTLY CHILLY WEATHER PATTERN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 TO 10
DAYS.

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY BETWEEN 40
AND 45 DEGREES, WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S
ON SATURDAY.

RAIN BECOMES LIKELY IN THE MID STATE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS A
LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL BE PULLED IN
BEHIND THE LOW AS IT SWINGS EAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW WILL BE LIKELY
OVER PARTS OF EXTREME NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE HIGHLAND RIM AND UPPER CUMBERLAND. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH COULD OCCUR IN
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-24, WITH PERHAPS AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO ALONG THE UPPER CUMBERLAND (IN SIMILAR FASHION TO OUR LAST
SNOWFALL EVENT).

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES, MUCH COLDER AIR ROLLS IN ON GUSTY NORTH
WINDS ON MONDAY, WITH DAYTIME WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE
20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 4 TO 6
DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY MORNING LOWS, WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT
ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

TEMPERATURES RECOVER A BIT ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS NUDGING THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND
BAJA FOR WEEKS ON END WILL FINALLY OPEN UP AND EJECT EASTWARD BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND CREATE A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO, WHICH THEN TRACKS TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS A NOR`EASTER. A
WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN TUESDAY
NIGHT, BUT IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO
TURN ANY PRECIP IN OUR FA TO RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW THAT
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE RATHER WEAK, SO THE CHANCES FOR WINTRY WEATHER
IN THE MID STATE LOOK SOMEWHAT SLIM. HOWEVER, THAT SYSTEM CERTAINLY
BEARS WATCHING OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS, AS DO ALL GULF OF MEXICO
SYSTEMS THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD CANADIAN AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING ATLANTIC COASTAL SYSTEM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,  AND BY
THURSDAY HIGHS IN OUR AREA WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      57  29  43  25 /  30  10  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    55  27  42  24 /  30  10   0   0
CROSSVILLE     50  28  38  21 /  40  30  05  05
COLUMBIA       57  31  44  26 /  30  10   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   57  33  45  27 /  30  10   0   0
WAVERLY        57  29  44  26 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KMEG 290928
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
328 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MUCH MILDER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
WAA WAS TAKING PLACE OVER THE AREA PRODUCING A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING MEASURABLE WILL BE ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE BEFORE SUNRISE.

FOR TODAY...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MILDER WEATHER WILL BE ABLE TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SEEN IN
MISSOURI PASSES THROUGH. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY SUNNY AS
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...FLIRTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
MORNING DIMINISH AND VEER NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LIGHTER
WINDS AND VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MUCH
COOLER LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST
WILL KEEP THE REGION COOL AND DRY TOMORROW.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS TRENDING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR THIS WEEKEND. A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES...WHILE THE UPPER LOW
WEST OF THE BAJA MOVES EAST INTO MEXICO. THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR
AREA WILL BACK FROM NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE
TO SURGE NORTH OUT OF TEXAS...AND THEN A RIGHT TURN EAST. THUS
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...AND WITH
WINDS REMAINING MORE EASTERLY HAVE TRENDED COOLER THAN FORECAST
GUIDANCE. MODELS SHOW EASTERN EXTENT OF RAIN CROSSING MISSOURI
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL REGION OTHERWISE RAIN WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS THE APPROACHING WAVE MOVES CLOSER ON SUNDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A 1040MB
SURFACE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DAKOTAS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
THIS SOLUTION WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR REACHING THE
NORTHWEST MIDSOUTH COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INTRODUCED A
RAIN/SNOW MIX A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BELIEVE
BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE
EVENING HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBFREEZING 925MB
TEMPERATURES MAKING THEIR WAY DOWN INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI BEFORE
PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF...SO WITH THIS...PLAN ON WORDING A SNOW
THREAT IN THE MORNING HWO. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THE BRUNT OF THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION...AND WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS...WINDCHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
MONDAY WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE COLD AS HIGHS
FOR SEVERAL MIDSOUTHERNERS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOW 30S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO
THE 40S AND LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS
DEPICT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW REACHING THE WESTERN GULF. ANY
PRECIPITATION FOR NOW APPEARS TO STAY JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 11-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTH MAINLY AFTER
29/17Z. LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT SITES OVERNIGHT AS 1500-2000
WINDS INCREASE TO 55KTS AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THURSDAY
EVENING.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 290928
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
328 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MUCH MILDER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
WAA WAS TAKING PLACE OVER THE AREA PRODUCING A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING MEASURABLE WILL BE ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE BEFORE SUNRISE.

FOR TODAY...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MILDER WEATHER WILL BE ABLE TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SEEN IN
MISSOURI PASSES THROUGH. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY SUNNY AS
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...FLIRTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
MORNING DIMINISH AND VEER NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LIGHTER
WINDS AND VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MUCH
COOLER LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST
WILL KEEP THE REGION COOL AND DRY TOMORROW.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS TRENDING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR THIS WEEKEND. A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES...WHILE THE UPPER LOW
WEST OF THE BAJA MOVES EAST INTO MEXICO. THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR
AREA WILL BACK FROM NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE
TO SURGE NORTH OUT OF TEXAS...AND THEN A RIGHT TURN EAST. THUS
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...AND WITH
WINDS REMAINING MORE EASTERLY HAVE TRENDED COOLER THAN FORECAST
GUIDANCE. MODELS SHOW EASTERN EXTENT OF RAIN CROSSING MISSOURI
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL REGION OTHERWISE RAIN WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS THE APPROACHING WAVE MOVES CLOSER ON SUNDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A 1040MB
SURFACE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DAKOTAS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
THIS SOLUTION WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR REACHING THE
NORTHWEST MIDSOUTH COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INTRODUCED A
RAIN/SNOW MIX A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BELIEVE
BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE
EVENING HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBFREEZING 925MB
TEMPERATURES MAKING THEIR WAY DOWN INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI BEFORE
PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF...SO WITH THIS...PLAN ON WORDING A SNOW
THREAT IN THE MORNING HWO. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THE BRUNT OF THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION...AND WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS...WINDCHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
MONDAY WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE COLD AS HIGHS
FOR SEVERAL MIDSOUTHERNERS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOW 30S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO
THE 40S AND LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS
DEPICT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW REACHING THE WESTERN GULF. ANY
PRECIPITATION FOR NOW APPEARS TO STAY JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 11-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTH MAINLY AFTER
29/17Z. LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT SITES OVERNIGHT AS 1500-2000
WINDS INCREASE TO 55KTS AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THURSDAY
EVENING.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 290802
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
300 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...STRONG WARM ADVECTION TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FAVORING NORTHERN
LOCATIONS.  A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...RAINFALL ACCOMPANYING THE COLD
FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.  SNOW WILL THEN
BECOME AN UPSLOPE EVENING ON FRIDAY MORNING...CLEARING OUT OF THE
ARE BY AFTERNOON.  LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE VALLEY.  ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE AT NORMALLY FAVORED
UPSLOPE LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE HAVING
CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...WITH POOR RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD TO
START THE PERIOD...BUT IS RATHER POOR FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN THE WEEKEND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.  AS NOTED...MODEL AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENCY POOR...WITH THE CANADIAN FURTHEST NORTH/WARMEST AND THE
EUROPEAN MUCH WEAKER/FURTHER SOUTH AND COLDER.  GFS IS IN BETWEEN
BUT CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN.  FOR NOW WILL TREND A BIT COLDER AND
ALLOW FOR MORE SNOW POSSIBILITY...BUT WILL STILL KEEP THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP RAIN IN THE VALLEY. WILL CONTINUE TO TALK ABOUT THIS
SYSTEM IN THE HWO. AFTER ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS END
MONDAY...SHOULD BE DRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD THE ECMWF WANTS TO HAVE ANOTHER SYSTEM AT LEAST BRUSH THE
AREA...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY.  WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP ON WEDNESDAY FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  34  45  25 /  20  20  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  52  31  40  20 /  30  40  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       52  31  40  21 /  30  30  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              48  27  35  15 /  40  50  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB/LW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 290802
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
300 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...STRONG WARM ADVECTION TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FAVORING NORTHERN
LOCATIONS.  A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...RAINFALL ACCOMPANYING THE COLD
FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.  SNOW WILL THEN
BECOME AN UPSLOPE EVENING ON FRIDAY MORNING...CLEARING OUT OF THE
ARE BY AFTERNOON.  LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE VALLEY.  ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE AT NORMALLY FAVORED
UPSLOPE LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE HAVING
CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...WITH POOR RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD TO
START THE PERIOD...BUT IS RATHER POOR FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN THE WEEKEND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.  AS NOTED...MODEL AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENCY POOR...WITH THE CANADIAN FURTHEST NORTH/WARMEST AND THE
EUROPEAN MUCH WEAKER/FURTHER SOUTH AND COLDER.  GFS IS IN BETWEEN
BUT CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN.  FOR NOW WILL TREND A BIT COLDER AND
ALLOW FOR MORE SNOW POSSIBILITY...BUT WILL STILL KEEP THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP RAIN IN THE VALLEY. WILL CONTINUE TO TALK ABOUT THIS
SYSTEM IN THE HWO. AFTER ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS END
MONDAY...SHOULD BE DRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD THE ECMWF WANTS TO HAVE ANOTHER SYSTEM AT LEAST BRUSH THE
AREA...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY.  WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP ON WEDNESDAY FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  34  45  25 /  20  20  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  52  31  40  20 /  30  40  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       52  31  40  21 /  30  30  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              48  27  35  15 /  40  50  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB/LW



000
FXUS64 KMRX 290609
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
100 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA...
WILL SEE A TRANQUIL NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS...HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS.  THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  A MID TO LOW BAND OF CLOUDS WILL
MOVE THROUGH WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR NOW.
ANOTHER BAND OF CLOUDS ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 290609
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
100 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA...
WILL SEE A TRANQUIL NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS...HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS.  THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  A MID TO LOW BAND OF CLOUDS WILL
MOVE THROUGH WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR NOW.
ANOTHER BAND OF CLOUDS ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB



000
FXUS64 KMEG 290532
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1132 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.


.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

UPDATE...
MIDEVENING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDINESS SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER. SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH...AHEAD OF 1004MB SURFACE LOW
OVER IA.

THE COMBINATION OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND OCCASIONALLY
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT.
A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE DELTA WERE NEAR FORECASTED LOWS AT 9 PM AND
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE MOST RECENT UPDATE.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO ADVANCE A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THOUGH AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MILD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION KEEPS LOWS
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THURSDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH
TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PICK UP THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT AND ONLY REBOUND BACK INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA. DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THERE
REMAINS MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WITH RESPECT TO THIS SYSTEM
REGARDING AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN IN WESTERN AREAS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP STEADILY ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP
TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE COLD AIR AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THEREFORE FUTURE FORECAST CHANGES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN BEHIND THE WEEKEND STORM
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
SHOULD BRING THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MID SOUTH BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 11-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTH MAINLY AFTER
29/17Z. LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT SITES OVERNIGHT AS 1500-2000
WINDS INCREASE TO 55KTS AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THURSDAY
EVENING.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 290532
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1132 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.


.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

UPDATE...
MIDEVENING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDINESS SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER. SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH...AHEAD OF 1004MB SURFACE LOW
OVER IA.

THE COMBINATION OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND OCCASIONALLY
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT.
A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE DELTA WERE NEAR FORECASTED LOWS AT 9 PM AND
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE MOST RECENT UPDATE.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO ADVANCE A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THOUGH AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MILD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION KEEPS LOWS
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THURSDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH
TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PICK UP THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT AND ONLY REBOUND BACK INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA. DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THERE
REMAINS MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WITH RESPECT TO THIS SYSTEM
REGARDING AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN IN WESTERN AREAS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP STEADILY ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP
TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE COLD AIR AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THEREFORE FUTURE FORECAST CHANGES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN BEHIND THE WEEKEND STORM
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
SHOULD BRING THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MID SOUTH BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 11-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTH MAINLY AFTER
29/17Z. LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT SITES OVERNIGHT AS 1500-2000
WINDS INCREASE TO 55KTS AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THURSDAY
EVENING.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 290512
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1112 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

COLD FRONT/UPPER SHORTWAVE SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH
THIS PERIOD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOWERING CIGS AS WELL
AS ISO-SCT LIGHT PCPN. CIGS LARGELY MVFR 18ZTHU-06ZFRI FRAME.
ADDITIONALLY...SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
QUITE GUSTY AFTER 12Z. NORTHWEST SHIFT EXPECTED TMRW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 832 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

UPDATE...
LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST IN THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
HOLD TEMPS UP QUITE A BIT FROM LAST NIGHTS LOWS. ITS POSSIBLE A SHOWER
OR TWO COULD WORK INTO NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE IN THE NIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND
10 MPH GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 290512
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1112 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

COLD FRONT/UPPER SHORTWAVE SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH
THIS PERIOD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOWERING CIGS AS WELL
AS ISO-SCT LIGHT PCPN. CIGS LARGELY MVFR 18ZTHU-06ZFRI FRAME.
ADDITIONALLY...SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
QUITE GUSTY AFTER 12Z. NORTHWEST SHIFT EXPECTED TMRW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 832 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

UPDATE...
LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST IN THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
HOLD TEMPS UP QUITE A BIT FROM LAST NIGHTS LOWS. ITS POSSIBLE A SHOWER
OR TWO COULD WORK INTO NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE IN THE NIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND
10 MPH GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 290432 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1132 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...QUICK TEMPERATURE UPDATE. LOWER MINS A DEGREE TO TWO
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             31  54  34  46 /  10  30  20   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  27  51  32  39 /  10  30  30  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       27  49  32  41 /  10  30  30  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              21  50  30  36 /  10  50  60  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 290432 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1132 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...QUICK TEMPERATURE UPDATE. LOWER MINS A DEGREE TO TWO
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             31  54  34  46 /  10  30  20   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  27  51  32  39 /  10  30  30  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       27  49  32  41 /  10  30  30  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              21  50  30  36 /  10  50  60  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMEG 290328 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
928 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MIDEVENING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDINESS SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER. SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH...AHEAD OF 1004MB SURFACE LOW
OVER IA.

THE COMBINATION OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND OCCASIONALLY
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT.
A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE DELTA WERE NEAR FORECASTED LOWS AT 9 PM AND
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE MOST RECENT UPDATE.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO ADVANCE A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THOUGH AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MILD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION KEEPS LOWS
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THURSDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH
TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PICK UP THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT AND ONLY REBOUND BACK INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA. DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THERE
REMAINS MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WITH RESPECT TO THIS SYSTEM
REGARDING AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN IN WESTERN AREAS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP STEADILY ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP
TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE COLD AIR AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THEREFORE FUTURE FORECAST CHANGES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN BEHIND THE WEEKEND STORM
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
SHOULD BRING THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MID SOUTH BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 11-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTHWEST MAINLY AFTER
29/17Z. LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT SITES OVERNIGHT AS 1500-2000
WINDS INCREASE TO 45KTS AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 290328 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
928 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MIDEVENING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDINESS SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER. SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH...AHEAD OF 1004MB SURFACE LOW
OVER IA.

THE COMBINATION OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND OCCASIONALLY
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT.
A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE DELTA WERE NEAR FORECASTED LOWS AT 9 PM AND
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE MOST RECENT UPDATE.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO ADVANCE A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THOUGH AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MILD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION KEEPS LOWS
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THURSDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH
TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PICK UP THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT AND ONLY REBOUND BACK INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA. DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THERE
REMAINS MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WITH RESPECT TO THIS SYSTEM
REGARDING AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN IN WESTERN AREAS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP STEADILY ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP
TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE COLD AIR AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THEREFORE FUTURE FORECAST CHANGES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN BEHIND THE WEEKEND STORM
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
SHOULD BRING THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MID SOUTH BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 11-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTHWEST MAINLY AFTER
29/17Z. LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT SITES OVERNIGHT AS 1500-2000
WINDS INCREASE TO 45KTS AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 290325 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1025 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO MIN FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES ARE
DROPPING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             32  54  34  46 /  10  30  20   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  29  51  32  39 /  10  30  30  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       28  49  32  41 /  10  30  30  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              21  50  30  36 /  10  50  60  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 290325 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1025 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO MIN FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES ARE
DROPPING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             32  54  34  46 /  10  30  20   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  29  51  32  39 /  10  30  30  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       28  49  32  41 /  10  30  30  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              21  50  30  36 /  10  50  60  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 290325 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1025 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO MIN FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES ARE
DROPPING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             32  54  34  46 /  10  30  20   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  29  51  32  39 /  10  30  30  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       28  49  32  41 /  10  30  30  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              21  50  30  36 /  10  50  60  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 290325 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1025 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO MIN FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES ARE
DROPPING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             32  54  34  46 /  10  30  20   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  29  51  32  39 /  10  30  30  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       28  49  32  41 /  10  30  30  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              21  50  30  36 /  10  50  60  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOHX 290232
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
832 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST IN THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
HOLD TEMPS UP QUITE A BIT FROM LAST NIGHTS LOWS. ITS POSSIBLE A SHOWER
OR TWO COULD WORK INTO NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE IN THE NIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND
10 MPH GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 290232
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
832 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST IN THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
HOLD TEMPS UP QUITE A BIT FROM LAST NIGHTS LOWS. ITS POSSIBLE A SHOWER
OR TWO COULD WORK INTO NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE IN THE NIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND
10 MPH GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 290232
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
832 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST IN THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
HOLD TEMPS UP QUITE A BIT FROM LAST NIGHTS LOWS. ITS POSSIBLE A SHOWER
OR TWO COULD WORK INTO NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE IN THE NIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND
10 MPH GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 290232
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
832 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST IN THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
HOLD TEMPS UP QUITE A BIT FROM LAST NIGHTS LOWS. ITS POSSIBLE A SHOWER
OR TWO COULD WORK INTO NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE IN THE NIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND
10 MPH GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 290019
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
619 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY LOOKING FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH LATE MORNING
ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE MORNING
AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY SO WE
COULD SEE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AFTER 12Z THURSDAY CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.



&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 290019
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
619 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY LOOKING FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH LATE MORNING
ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE MORNING
AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY SO WE
COULD SEE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AFTER 12Z THURSDAY CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.



&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 290019
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
619 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY LOOKING FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH LATE MORNING
ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE MORNING
AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY SO WE
COULD SEE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AFTER 12Z THURSDAY CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.



&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 290019
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
619 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY LOOKING FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH LATE MORNING
ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE MORNING
AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY SO WE
COULD SEE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AFTER 12Z THURSDAY CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.



&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KMEG 282358
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
558 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO ADVANCE A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THOUGH AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MILD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION KEEPS LOWS
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THURSDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH
TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PICK UP THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT AND ONLY REBOUND BACK INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA. DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THERE
REMAINS MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WITH RESPECT TO THIS SYSTEM
REGARDING AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN IN WESTERN AREAS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP STEADILY ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP
TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE COLD AIR AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THEREFORE FUTURE FORECAST CHANGES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN BEHIND THE WEEKEND STORM
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
SHOULD BRING THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MID SOUTH BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 11-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTHWEST MAINLY AFTER
29/17Z. LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT SITES OVERNIGHT AS 1500-2000
WINDS INCREASE TO 45KTS AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 282337
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
637 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH CEILINGS WILL DROP TO AROUND FIVE THOUSAND
FEET AROUND 20Z AND A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT BUILDS THROUGH
THE REGION. KEPT MENTION OF A SPRINKLE OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH
PROBABILITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 282337
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
637 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH CEILINGS WILL DROP TO AROUND FIVE THOUSAND
FEET AROUND 20Z AND A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT BUILDS THROUGH
THE REGION. KEPT MENTION OF A SPRINKLE OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH
PROBABILITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 282337
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
637 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH CEILINGS WILL DROP TO AROUND FIVE THOUSAND
FEET AROUND 20Z AND A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT BUILDS THROUGH
THE REGION. KEPT MENTION OF A SPRINKLE OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH
PROBABILITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 282337
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
637 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH CEILINGS WILL DROP TO AROUND FIVE THOUSAND
FEET AROUND 20Z AND A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT BUILDS THROUGH
THE REGION. KEPT MENTION OF A SPRINKLE OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH
PROBABILITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOHX 282126
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
326 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT PROVIDED A FEW CLOUDY DAYS WITH LIGHT PRECIP
FOR MIDDLE TN HAS SLID OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE TO INCH ITS WAY ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS HELPED
TO WARM TEMPS TO SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY BEFORE GOING ABOVE
AVERAGE TOMORROW. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST...WINDS
SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND PICK UP SPEED AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO WARM
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...AND GET A GOOD HEAD START ON WARMER TEMPS
TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY
THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AND WILL SLOWLY PHASE WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE
TROUGH BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR PRECIP
CHANCES STARTING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND GOING THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING ON FRIDAY. EARLY PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN AS WAA LOOKS
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH MIDDLE TN...850MB TEMPS DROP PRETTY QUICKLY.
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY 850MB TEMPS ARE AS COLD AS -7C NEAR THE KY
BORDER...AND AS WARM AS 3C TO THE SOUTH. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES
ARE COLD AT 850MB...SURFACE WET BULBS ARE WELL ABOVE 32F EARLY ON.
DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE WARM AIR IS NEAR THE SURFACE...PRECIP
AFTER MIDNIGHT MAY HAVE SOME SLEET AND SNOW MIXED IN. BY 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS TO BE
MOSTLY SNOW. PUT VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE TROUGH AS SLOWER TRANSITION AND COLDER TEMPS MAY ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION POSSIBILITIES.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE REGION RETURNS TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING MORE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND ALLOW FOR PRECIP CHANCES TO RETURN BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. EARLY ONSET OF PRECIP LOOKS TOO CLOSE TO CALL
ATTM...WITH BELOW ZERO 850MB TEMPS MAINLY NORTH OF I40. WENT WITH
RAIN FOR NOW BUT DEPENDING ON MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY
THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR SNOW MENTION FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST. AS COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY EVENING...PRECIP LOOKS TO SWITCH OVER FROM RAIN
TO SNOW AND SHOULD BE ALL SNOW BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LIKE THE
PREVIOUS WAVE...PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA
BY THE TIME SNOW CHANCES INCREASE. HAVE A MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE
BACKSIDE PRECIP DURING THE DAY MONDAY ATTM.

A ZONAL/NW FLOW PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE
AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW AS THE GFS HAS MORE PRECIP OVER
AL/GA AND THE ECMWF PLACES MOST OF THE PRECIP OFF THE CAROLINAS
INTO THE ATLANTIC. BOTH MODELS HOWEVER LOOK TO GIVE THE REGION
RAIN AS THE PRECIP TYPE FOR NOW...BUT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
IF THE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW EVENTUALLY BRINGS DOWN
MORE COLD AIR...AND CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL TO THE AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      40  54  33  43 /  20  30  10  05
CLARKSVILLE    41  54  30  42 /  20  30  10   0
CROSSVILLE     34  48  28  38 /  10  40  30  05
COLUMBIA       38  55  32  44 /  10  30  10   0
LAWRENCEBURG   39  55  32  45 /  10  30  10   0
WAVERLY        42  56  32  44 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KOHX 282126
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
326 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT PROVIDED A FEW CLOUDY DAYS WITH LIGHT PRECIP
FOR MIDDLE TN HAS SLID OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE TO INCH ITS WAY ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS HELPED
TO WARM TEMPS TO SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY BEFORE GOING ABOVE
AVERAGE TOMORROW. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST...WINDS
SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND PICK UP SPEED AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO WARM
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...AND GET A GOOD HEAD START ON WARMER TEMPS
TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY
THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AND WILL SLOWLY PHASE WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE
TROUGH BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR PRECIP
CHANCES STARTING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND GOING THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING ON FRIDAY. EARLY PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN AS WAA LOOKS
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH MIDDLE TN...850MB TEMPS DROP PRETTY QUICKLY.
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY 850MB TEMPS ARE AS COLD AS -7C NEAR THE KY
BORDER...AND AS WARM AS 3C TO THE SOUTH. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES
ARE COLD AT 850MB...SURFACE WET BULBS ARE WELL ABOVE 32F EARLY ON.
DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE WARM AIR IS NEAR THE SURFACE...PRECIP
AFTER MIDNIGHT MAY HAVE SOME SLEET AND SNOW MIXED IN. BY 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS TO BE
MOSTLY SNOW. PUT VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE TROUGH AS SLOWER TRANSITION AND COLDER TEMPS MAY ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION POSSIBILITIES.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE REGION RETURNS TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING MORE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND ALLOW FOR PRECIP CHANCES TO RETURN BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. EARLY ONSET OF PRECIP LOOKS TOO CLOSE TO CALL
ATTM...WITH BELOW ZERO 850MB TEMPS MAINLY NORTH OF I40. WENT WITH
RAIN FOR NOW BUT DEPENDING ON MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY
THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR SNOW MENTION FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST. AS COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY EVENING...PRECIP LOOKS TO SWITCH OVER FROM RAIN
TO SNOW AND SHOULD BE ALL SNOW BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LIKE THE
PREVIOUS WAVE...PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA
BY THE TIME SNOW CHANCES INCREASE. HAVE A MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE
BACKSIDE PRECIP DURING THE DAY MONDAY ATTM.

A ZONAL/NW FLOW PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE
AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW AS THE GFS HAS MORE PRECIP OVER
AL/GA AND THE ECMWF PLACES MOST OF THE PRECIP OFF THE CAROLINAS
INTO THE ATLANTIC. BOTH MODELS HOWEVER LOOK TO GIVE THE REGION
RAIN AS THE PRECIP TYPE FOR NOW...BUT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
IF THE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW EVENTUALLY BRINGS DOWN
MORE COLD AIR...AND CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL TO THE AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      40  54  33  43 /  20  30  10  05
CLARKSVILLE    41  54  30  42 /  20  30  10   0
CROSSVILLE     34  48  28  38 /  10  40  30  05
COLUMBIA       38  55  32  44 /  10  30  10   0
LAWRENCEBURG   39  55  32  45 /  10  30  10   0
WAVERLY        42  56  32  44 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KOHX 282126
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
326 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT PROVIDED A FEW CLOUDY DAYS WITH LIGHT PRECIP
FOR MIDDLE TN HAS SLID OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE TO INCH ITS WAY ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS HELPED
TO WARM TEMPS TO SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY BEFORE GOING ABOVE
AVERAGE TOMORROW. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST...WINDS
SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND PICK UP SPEED AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO WARM
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...AND GET A GOOD HEAD START ON WARMER TEMPS
TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY
THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AND WILL SLOWLY PHASE WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE
TROUGH BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR PRECIP
CHANCES STARTING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND GOING THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING ON FRIDAY. EARLY PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN AS WAA LOOKS
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH MIDDLE TN...850MB TEMPS DROP PRETTY QUICKLY.
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY 850MB TEMPS ARE AS COLD AS -7C NEAR THE KY
BORDER...AND AS WARM AS 3C TO THE SOUTH. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES
ARE COLD AT 850MB...SURFACE WET BULBS ARE WELL ABOVE 32F EARLY ON.
DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE WARM AIR IS NEAR THE SURFACE...PRECIP
AFTER MIDNIGHT MAY HAVE SOME SLEET AND SNOW MIXED IN. BY 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS TO BE
MOSTLY SNOW. PUT VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE TROUGH AS SLOWER TRANSITION AND COLDER TEMPS MAY ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION POSSIBILITIES.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE REGION RETURNS TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING MORE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND ALLOW FOR PRECIP CHANCES TO RETURN BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. EARLY ONSET OF PRECIP LOOKS TOO CLOSE TO CALL
ATTM...WITH BELOW ZERO 850MB TEMPS MAINLY NORTH OF I40. WENT WITH
RAIN FOR NOW BUT DEPENDING ON MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY
THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR SNOW MENTION FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST. AS COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY EVENING...PRECIP LOOKS TO SWITCH OVER FROM RAIN
TO SNOW AND SHOULD BE ALL SNOW BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LIKE THE
PREVIOUS WAVE...PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA
BY THE TIME SNOW CHANCES INCREASE. HAVE A MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE
BACKSIDE PRECIP DURING THE DAY MONDAY ATTM.

A ZONAL/NW FLOW PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE
AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW AS THE GFS HAS MORE PRECIP OVER
AL/GA AND THE ECMWF PLACES MOST OF THE PRECIP OFF THE CAROLINAS
INTO THE ATLANTIC. BOTH MODELS HOWEVER LOOK TO GIVE THE REGION
RAIN AS THE PRECIP TYPE FOR NOW...BUT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
IF THE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW EVENTUALLY BRINGS DOWN
MORE COLD AIR...AND CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL TO THE AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      40  54  33  43 /  20  30  10  05
CLARKSVILLE    41  54  30  42 /  20  30  10   0
CROSSVILLE     34  48  28  38 /  10  40  30  05
COLUMBIA       38  55  32  44 /  10  30  10   0
LAWRENCEBURG   39  55  32  45 /  10  30  10   0
WAVERLY        42  56  32  44 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KOHX 282126
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
326 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT PROVIDED A FEW CLOUDY DAYS WITH LIGHT PRECIP
FOR MIDDLE TN HAS SLID OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE TO INCH ITS WAY ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS HELPED
TO WARM TEMPS TO SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY BEFORE GOING ABOVE
AVERAGE TOMORROW. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST...WINDS
SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND PICK UP SPEED AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO WARM
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...AND GET A GOOD HEAD START ON WARMER TEMPS
TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY
THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AND WILL SLOWLY PHASE WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE
TROUGH BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR PRECIP
CHANCES STARTING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND GOING THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING ON FRIDAY. EARLY PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN AS WAA LOOKS
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH MIDDLE TN...850MB TEMPS DROP PRETTY QUICKLY.
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY 850MB TEMPS ARE AS COLD AS -7C NEAR THE KY
BORDER...AND AS WARM AS 3C TO THE SOUTH. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES
ARE COLD AT 850MB...SURFACE WET BULBS ARE WELL ABOVE 32F EARLY ON.
DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE WARM AIR IS NEAR THE SURFACE...PRECIP
AFTER MIDNIGHT MAY HAVE SOME SLEET AND SNOW MIXED IN. BY 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS TO BE
MOSTLY SNOW. PUT VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE TROUGH AS SLOWER TRANSITION AND COLDER TEMPS MAY ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION POSSIBILITIES.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE REGION RETURNS TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING MORE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND ALLOW FOR PRECIP CHANCES TO RETURN BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. EARLY ONSET OF PRECIP LOOKS TOO CLOSE TO CALL
ATTM...WITH BELOW ZERO 850MB TEMPS MAINLY NORTH OF I40. WENT WITH
RAIN FOR NOW BUT DEPENDING ON MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY
THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR SNOW MENTION FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST. AS COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY EVENING...PRECIP LOOKS TO SWITCH OVER FROM RAIN
TO SNOW AND SHOULD BE ALL SNOW BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LIKE THE
PREVIOUS WAVE...PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA
BY THE TIME SNOW CHANCES INCREASE. HAVE A MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE
BACKSIDE PRECIP DURING THE DAY MONDAY ATTM.

A ZONAL/NW FLOW PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE
AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW AS THE GFS HAS MORE PRECIP OVER
AL/GA AND THE ECMWF PLACES MOST OF THE PRECIP OFF THE CAROLINAS
INTO THE ATLANTIC. BOTH MODELS HOWEVER LOOK TO GIVE THE REGION
RAIN AS THE PRECIP TYPE FOR NOW...BUT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
IF THE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW EVENTUALLY BRINGS DOWN
MORE COLD AIR...AND CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL TO THE AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      40  54  33  43 /  20  30  10  05
CLARKSVILLE    41  54  30  42 /  20  30  10   0
CROSSVILLE     34  48  28  38 /  10  40  30  05
COLUMBIA       38  55  32  44 /  10  30  10   0
LAWRENCEBURG   39  55  32  45 /  10  30  10   0
WAVERLY        42  56  32  44 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KMEG 282118
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
318 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO ADVANCE A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THOUGH AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MILD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION KEEPS LOWS
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THURSDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH
TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PICK UP THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT AND ONLY REBOUND BACK INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA. DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THERE
REMAINS MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WITH RESPECT TO THIS SYSTEM
REGARDING AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN IN WESTERN AREAS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP STEADILY ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP
TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE COLD AIR AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THEREFORE FUTURE FORECAST CHANGES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN BEHIND THE WEEKEND STORM
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
SHOULD BRING THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MID SOUTH BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (28/18Z-29/18Z)

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
TURNING SE-S TODAY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KTS. WINDS
CONTINUING TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AT KJBR...KMEM...AND
KMKL BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 28/04Z-06Z. WINDS TONIGHT AT KTUP S
AROUND 7 KTS. CIGS WILL LOWER TO NEAR MVFR LEVELS TONIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

JPM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 282017
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
312 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...LAYER RIDGING MOVES RAPIDLY
SE THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. DAMPENING SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST THROUGH
THE TN VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY
MORNING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. UPPER JET
SEGMENT DIGGING SOUTHEAST TOWARD MID MS VALLEY CARVING LONG WAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE TN VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE MRX CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON FAVORING
NORTHERN AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW THROUGH THE
MIDNIGHT HOUR. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND THE BULK OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH BY EARLY FRIDAY. LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS FAVORING
ELEVATED NORTHERN AREAS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY
WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM THE SW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COOL
TEMPERATURES PERSIST FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CLEARING WILL
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN A CHILLY NIGHT AS LOWS
WILL BOTTOM OUT WELL BELOW FREEZING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM /ALONG WITH SOME PEAKS OF
SUN/ SHOULD HELP WARM HIGHS UP TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S DURING
THE DAY. OVERNIGHT SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF A NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT.
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ENHANCE COVERAGE AS THIS ACTIVITY INCREASES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S... THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY FALL AS RAIN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THEN AS THE COLD FRONT AND BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CHANGE ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION OVER TO
SNOW...OR AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO
SOME MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS  ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS IN THESE AREAS ABOVE 2500-3000 FT BY
MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A BRIEF BOUT OF DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER-TROUGH WILL THEN APPROACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO CLOSE OUT THE PERIOD.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             34  54  34  46 /  10  30  20   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  29  51  32  39 /  10  30  30  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       29  49  32  41 /  10  30  30  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              23  50  30  36 /  10  50  60  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON/AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 282017
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
312 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...LAYER RIDGING MOVES RAPIDLY
SE THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. DAMPENING SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST THROUGH
THE TN VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY
MORNING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. UPPER JET
SEGMENT DIGGING SOUTHEAST TOWARD MID MS VALLEY CARVING LONG WAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE TN VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE MRX CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON FAVORING
NORTHERN AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW THROUGH THE
MIDNIGHT HOUR. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND THE BULK OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH BY EARLY FRIDAY. LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS FAVORING
ELEVATED NORTHERN AREAS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY
WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM THE SW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COOL
TEMPERATURES PERSIST FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CLEARING WILL
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN A CHILLY NIGHT AS LOWS
WILL BOTTOM OUT WELL BELOW FREEZING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM /ALONG WITH SOME PEAKS OF
SUN/ SHOULD HELP WARM HIGHS UP TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S DURING
THE DAY. OVERNIGHT SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF A NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT.
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ENHANCE COVERAGE AS THIS ACTIVITY INCREASES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S... THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY FALL AS RAIN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THEN AS THE COLD FRONT AND BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CHANGE ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION OVER TO
SNOW...OR AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO
SOME MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS  ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS IN THESE AREAS ABOVE 2500-3000 FT BY
MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A BRIEF BOUT OF DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER-TROUGH WILL THEN APPROACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO CLOSE OUT THE PERIOD.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             34  54  34  46 /  10  30  20   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  29  51  32  39 /  10  30  30  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       29  49  32  41 /  10  30  30  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              23  50  30  36 /  10  50  60  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON/AMP



000
FXUS64 KMEG 281746
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1146 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATE TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE AND LOWER SKY
COVER GRIDS.

DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE MID SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UNDERCUT HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AT
ALL SITES BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. ALSO LOWERED SKY
GRIDS TO REFLECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AREAWIDE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

JLH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

CURRENTLY A PEACEFUL WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH
CLEAR SKIES...CALM OR LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.

FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE. BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOUD COVER. MILDER HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WITH SOME MIDSOUTHERNERS SEEING 60 DEGREE WEATHER.
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL FILTER IN FRIDAY DROPPING HIGHS TO BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD STILL BEING
ASSESSED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE PHASING OF TROUGHS IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE PLACE
STARTING SATURDAY OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS ACTION WILL ALLOW A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO STREAM IN DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AND MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRIGGERED BY THE
UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM TEXAS TO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PULLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA BEFORE
SUBFREEZING AIR MOVES IN...IS STILL BEING HASHED OUT BETWEEN EACH
MODEL AND MODEL RUN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCES LOW
FOR BOTH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AND FOR ALL SNOW. IF BETTER MODEL
CONSISTENCY LEANS TOWARDS LINGERING PRECIPITATION...THE EASTERN
AREA COULD SEE SMALL ACCUMULATIONS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY
WITH CAA DROPPING 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM INTO THE -6C TO -10C
RANGE. THUS HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER...AND WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WINDCHILLS WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. SO A COLD
START FOR THE FIRST WORK DAY OF FEBRUARY 2015.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH PRECIPITATION FREE AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

JAB

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (28/18Z-29/18Z)

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
TURNING SE-S TODAY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KTS. WINDS
CONTINUING TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AT KJBR...KMEM...AND
KMKL BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 28/04Z-06Z. WINDS TONIGHT AT KTUP S
AROUND 7 KTS. CIGS WILL LOWER TO NEAR MVFR LEVELS TONIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 281746
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1146 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATE TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE AND LOWER SKY
COVER GRIDS.

DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE MID SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UNDERCUT HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AT
ALL SITES BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. ALSO LOWERED SKY
GRIDS TO REFLECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AREAWIDE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

JLH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

CURRENTLY A PEACEFUL WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH
CLEAR SKIES...CALM OR LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.

FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE. BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOUD COVER. MILDER HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WITH SOME MIDSOUTHERNERS SEEING 60 DEGREE WEATHER.
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL FILTER IN FRIDAY DROPPING HIGHS TO BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD STILL BEING
ASSESSED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE PHASING OF TROUGHS IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE PLACE
STARTING SATURDAY OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS ACTION WILL ALLOW A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO STREAM IN DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AND MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRIGGERED BY THE
UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM TEXAS TO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PULLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA BEFORE
SUBFREEZING AIR MOVES IN...IS STILL BEING HASHED OUT BETWEEN EACH
MODEL AND MODEL RUN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCES LOW
FOR BOTH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AND FOR ALL SNOW. IF BETTER MODEL
CONSISTENCY LEANS TOWARDS LINGERING PRECIPITATION...THE EASTERN
AREA COULD SEE SMALL ACCUMULATIONS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY
WITH CAA DROPPING 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM INTO THE -6C TO -10C
RANGE. THUS HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER...AND WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WINDCHILLS WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. SO A COLD
START FOR THE FIRST WORK DAY OF FEBRUARY 2015.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH PRECIPITATION FREE AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

JAB

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (28/18Z-29/18Z)

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
TURNING SE-S TODAY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KTS. WINDS
CONTINUING TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AT KJBR...KMEM...AND
KMKL BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 28/04Z-06Z. WINDS TONIGHT AT KTUP S
AROUND 7 KTS. CIGS WILL LOWER TO NEAR MVFR LEVELS TONIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 281746
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1146 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATE TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE AND LOWER SKY
COVER GRIDS.

DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE MID SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UNDERCUT HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AT
ALL SITES BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. ALSO LOWERED SKY
GRIDS TO REFLECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AREAWIDE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

JLH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

CURRENTLY A PEACEFUL WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH
CLEAR SKIES...CALM OR LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.

FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE. BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOUD COVER. MILDER HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WITH SOME MIDSOUTHERNERS SEEING 60 DEGREE WEATHER.
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL FILTER IN FRIDAY DROPPING HIGHS TO BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD STILL BEING
ASSESSED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE PHASING OF TROUGHS IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE PLACE
STARTING SATURDAY OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS ACTION WILL ALLOW A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO STREAM IN DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AND MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRIGGERED BY THE
UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM TEXAS TO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PULLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA BEFORE
SUBFREEZING AIR MOVES IN...IS STILL BEING HASHED OUT BETWEEN EACH
MODEL AND MODEL RUN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCES LOW
FOR BOTH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AND FOR ALL SNOW. IF BETTER MODEL
CONSISTENCY LEANS TOWARDS LINGERING PRECIPITATION...THE EASTERN
AREA COULD SEE SMALL ACCUMULATIONS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY
WITH CAA DROPPING 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM INTO THE -6C TO -10C
RANGE. THUS HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER...AND WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WINDCHILLS WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. SO A COLD
START FOR THE FIRST WORK DAY OF FEBRUARY 2015.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH PRECIPITATION FREE AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

JAB

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (28/18Z-29/18Z)

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
TURNING SE-S TODAY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KTS. WINDS
CONTINUING TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AT KJBR...KMEM...AND
KMKL BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 28/04Z-06Z. WINDS TONIGHT AT KTUP S
AROUND 7 KTS. CIGS WILL LOWER TO NEAR MVFR LEVELS TONIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 281746
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1146 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATE TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE AND LOWER SKY
COVER GRIDS.

DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE MID SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UNDERCUT HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AT
ALL SITES BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. ALSO LOWERED SKY
GRIDS TO REFLECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AREAWIDE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

JLH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

CURRENTLY A PEACEFUL WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH
CLEAR SKIES...CALM OR LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.

FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE. BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOUD COVER. MILDER HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WITH SOME MIDSOUTHERNERS SEEING 60 DEGREE WEATHER.
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL FILTER IN FRIDAY DROPPING HIGHS TO BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD STILL BEING
ASSESSED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE PHASING OF TROUGHS IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE PLACE
STARTING SATURDAY OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS ACTION WILL ALLOW A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO STREAM IN DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AND MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRIGGERED BY THE
UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM TEXAS TO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PULLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA BEFORE
SUBFREEZING AIR MOVES IN...IS STILL BEING HASHED OUT BETWEEN EACH
MODEL AND MODEL RUN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCES LOW
FOR BOTH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AND FOR ALL SNOW. IF BETTER MODEL
CONSISTENCY LEANS TOWARDS LINGERING PRECIPITATION...THE EASTERN
AREA COULD SEE SMALL ACCUMULATIONS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY
WITH CAA DROPPING 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM INTO THE -6C TO -10C
RANGE. THUS HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER...AND WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WINDCHILLS WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. SO A COLD
START FOR THE FIRST WORK DAY OF FEBRUARY 2015.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH PRECIPITATION FREE AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

JAB

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (28/18Z-29/18Z)

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
TURNING SE-S TODAY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KTS. WINDS
CONTINUING TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AT KJBR...KMEM...AND
KMKL BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 28/04Z-06Z. WINDS TONIGHT AT KTUP S
AROUND 7 KTS. CIGS WILL LOWER TO NEAR MVFR LEVELS TONIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 281742 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1142 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
MAJORITY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 29/18Z. SKC CONDITIONS 29/11Z W -
29/13Z E UNTIL BKN ALTOSTRATUS APPROACHES ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM MS RIVER VALLEY. AS FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO MID STATE BY
29/18Z...BKN STRATUS VFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LIGHT RAINFALL...
VFR VSBYS SHOULD HOLD...WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE CKV BY 29/16Z PER DEEPEST
MOISTURE DEPTH/FRONTAL PROXIMITY. SFC WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FROM SE TO S/SW WITH
GUSTS TO 20KTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTER 29/14Z AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 947 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

UPDATE...
PER CURRENT AND EXPECTED CLR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF MID STATE THRU THE
AFTERNOON HRS...WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE MAINLY
ACROSS UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE UPDATED THE
SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION SUNNY SKIES MOST PLACES.
WILL BE UPDATING THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS APPROACHING NOON
TO REMOVE MORNING WIND SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL WORDING. OTHERWISE...
BELOW FORECAST REASONING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SUITE OF FORECAST
PRODUCTS REMAINS ON TRACK WITH CURRENT FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SHUN-SHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR CHANCE POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR A BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--
WEATHER RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 281742 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1142 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
MAJORITY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 29/18Z. SKC CONDITIONS 29/11Z W -
29/13Z E UNTIL BKN ALTOSTRATUS APPROACHES ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM MS RIVER VALLEY. AS FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO MID STATE BY
29/18Z...BKN STRATUS VFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LIGHT RAINFALL...
VFR VSBYS SHOULD HOLD...WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE CKV BY 29/16Z PER DEEPEST
MOISTURE DEPTH/FRONTAL PROXIMITY. SFC WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FROM SE TO S/SW WITH
GUSTS TO 20KTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTER 29/14Z AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 947 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

UPDATE...
PER CURRENT AND EXPECTED CLR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF MID STATE THRU THE
AFTERNOON HRS...WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE MAINLY
ACROSS UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE UPDATED THE
SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION SUNNY SKIES MOST PLACES.
WILL BE UPDATING THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS APPROACHING NOON
TO REMOVE MORNING WIND SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL WORDING. OTHERWISE...
BELOW FORECAST REASONING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SUITE OF FORECAST
PRODUCTS REMAINS ON TRACK WITH CURRENT FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SHUN-SHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR CHANCE POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR A BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--
WEATHER RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KMRX 281727
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1227 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST BEYOND THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON



000
FXUS64 KMRX 281727
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1227 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST BEYOND THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KMEG 281640
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1040 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATE TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE AND LOWER SKY
COVER GRIDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE MID SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UNDERCUT HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AT
ALL SITES BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. ALSO LOWERED SKY
GRIDS TO REFLECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AREAWIDE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

CURRENTLY A PEACEFUL WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH
CLEAR SKIES...CALM OR LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.

FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE. BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOUD COVER. MILDER HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WITH SOME MIDSOUTHERNERS SEEING 60 DEGREE WEATHER.
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL FILTER IN FRIDAY DROPPING HIGHS TO BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD STILL BEING
ASSESSED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE PHASING OF TROUGHS IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE PLACE
STARTING SATURDAY OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS ACTION WILL ALLOW A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO STREAM IN DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AND MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRIGGERED BY THE
UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM TEXAS TO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PULLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA BEFORE
SUBFREEZING AIR MOVES IN...IS STILL BEING HASHED OUT BETWEEN EACH
MODEL AND MODEL RUN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCES LOW
FOR BOTH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AND FOR ALL SNOW. IF BETTER MODEL
CONSISTENCY LEANS TOWARDS LINGERING PRECIPITATION...THE EASTERN
AREA COULD SEE SMALL ACCUMULATIONS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY
WITH CAA DROPPING 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM INTO THE -6C TO -10C
RANGE. THUS HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER...AND WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WINDCHILLS WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. SO A COLD
START FOR THE FIRST WORK DAY OF FEBRUARY 2015.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH PRECIPITATION FREE AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (28/12Z-29/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TURNING SE-S
TODAY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KTS. WINDS CONTINUING TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AT KJBR...KMEM...AND KMKL BECOMING
GUSTY AFTER 28/05Z-06Z. WINDS TONIGHT AT KTUP S AROUND 7 KTS. MAY
HAVE TO CONSIDER MENTION OF LLWS IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT IN LATER
FORECASTS WITH STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 281640
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1040 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATE TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE AND LOWER SKY
COVER GRIDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE MID SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UNDERCUT HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AT
ALL SITES BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. ALSO LOWERED SKY
GRIDS TO REFLECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AREAWIDE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

CURRENTLY A PEACEFUL WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH
CLEAR SKIES...CALM OR LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.

FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE. BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOUD COVER. MILDER HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WITH SOME MIDSOUTHERNERS SEEING 60 DEGREE WEATHER.
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL FILTER IN FRIDAY DROPPING HIGHS TO BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD STILL BEING
ASSESSED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE PHASING OF TROUGHS IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE PLACE
STARTING SATURDAY OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS ACTION WILL ALLOW A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO STREAM IN DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AND MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRIGGERED BY THE
UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM TEXAS TO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PULLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA BEFORE
SUBFREEZING AIR MOVES IN...IS STILL BEING HASHED OUT BETWEEN EACH
MODEL AND MODEL RUN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCES LOW
FOR BOTH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AND FOR ALL SNOW. IF BETTER MODEL
CONSISTENCY LEANS TOWARDS LINGERING PRECIPITATION...THE EASTERN
AREA COULD SEE SMALL ACCUMULATIONS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY
WITH CAA DROPPING 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM INTO THE -6C TO -10C
RANGE. THUS HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER...AND WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WINDCHILLS WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. SO A COLD
START FOR THE FIRST WORK DAY OF FEBRUARY 2015.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH PRECIPITATION FREE AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (28/12Z-29/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TURNING SE-S
TODAY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KTS. WINDS CONTINUING TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AT KJBR...KMEM...AND KMKL BECOMING
GUSTY AFTER 28/05Z-06Z. WINDS TONIGHT AT KTUP S AROUND 7 KTS. MAY
HAVE TO CONSIDER MENTION OF LLWS IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT IN LATER
FORECASTS WITH STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 281547 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
947 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
PER CURRENT AND EXPECTED CLR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF MID STATE THRU THE
AFTERNOON HRS...WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE MAINLY
ACROSS UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE UPDATED THE
SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION SUNNY SKIES MOST PLACES.
WILL BE UPDATING THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS APPROACHING NOON
TO REMOVE MORNING WIND SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL WORDING. OTHERWISE...
BELOW FORECAST REASONING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SUITE OF FORECAST
PRODUCTS REMAINS ON TRACK WITH CURRENT FORECAST.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SHUN-SHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR CHANCE POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR A BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--
WEATHER RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 281547 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
947 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
PER CURRENT AND EXPECTED CLR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF MID STATE THRU THE
AFTERNOON HRS...WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE MAINLY
ACROSS UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE UPDATED THE
SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION SUNNY SKIES MOST PLACES.
WILL BE UPDATING THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS APPROACHING NOON
TO REMOVE MORNING WIND SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL WORDING. OTHERWISE...
BELOW FORECAST REASONING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SUITE OF FORECAST
PRODUCTS REMAINS ON TRACK WITH CURRENT FORECAST.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SHUN-SHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR CHANCE POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR A BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--
WEATHER RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 281547 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
947 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
PER CURRENT AND EXPECTED CLR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF MID STATE THRU THE
AFTERNOON HRS...WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE MAINLY
ACROSS UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE UPDATED THE
SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION SUNNY SKIES MOST PLACES.
WILL BE UPDATING THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS APPROACHING NOON
TO REMOVE MORNING WIND SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL WORDING. OTHERWISE...
BELOW FORECAST REASONING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SUITE OF FORECAST
PRODUCTS REMAINS ON TRACK WITH CURRENT FORECAST.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SHUN-SHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR CHANCE POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR A BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--
WEATHER RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 281547 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
947 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
PER CURRENT AND EXPECTED CLR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF MID STATE THRU THE
AFTERNOON HRS...WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE MAINLY
ACROSS UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE UPDATED THE
SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION SUNNY SKIES MOST PLACES.
WILL BE UPDATING THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS APPROACHING NOON
TO REMOVE MORNING WIND SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL WORDING. OTHERWISE...
BELOW FORECAST REASONING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SUITE OF FORECAST
PRODUCTS REMAINS ON TRACK WITH CURRENT FORECAST.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SHUN-SHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR CHANCE POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR A BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--
WEATHER RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KMRX 281458
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
958 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...MINOR UPDATE FOR TODAY. CLOUD COVER SPARSE THIS
MORNING AND FLURRIES HAVE ENDED ACROSS NE AREAS. LOWERED CLOUD
COVER AND RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             50  34  55  34 /  10  10  20  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  43  29  52  32 /  10  10  30  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       43  29  50  32 /  10  10  30  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              40  23  50  30 /  10  10  40  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 281458
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
958 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...MINOR UPDATE FOR TODAY. CLOUD COVER SPARSE THIS
MORNING AND FLURRIES HAVE ENDED ACROSS NE AREAS. LOWERED CLOUD
COVER AND RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             50  34  55  34 /  10  10  20  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  43  29  52  32 /  10  10  30  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       43  29  50  32 /  10  10  30  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              40  23  50  30 /  10  10  40  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON



000
FXUS64 KOHX 281214
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SHUNSHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR CHANCE POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR A BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--
WEATHER RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      49  38  54  31 /   0  20  30  10
CLARKSVILLE    48  39  53  29 /   0  20  30  10
CROSSVILLE     43  34  49  28 /   0  10  40  30
COLUMBIA       50  38  55  31 /   0  20  30  10
LAWRENCEBURG   50  38  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
WAVERLY        50  41  55  30 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19












000
FXUS64 KOHX 281214
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SHUNSHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR CHANCE POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR A BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--
WEATHER RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      49  38  54  31 /   0  20  30  10
CLARKSVILLE    48  39  53  29 /   0  20  30  10
CROSSVILLE     43  34  49  28 /   0  10  40  30
COLUMBIA       50  38  55  31 /   0  20  30  10
LAWRENCEBURG   50  38  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
WAVERLY        50  41  55  30 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19












000
FXUS64 KOHX 281214
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SHUNSHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR CHANCE POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR A BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--
WEATHER RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      49  38  54  31 /   0  20  30  10
CLARKSVILLE    48  39  53  29 /   0  20  30  10
CROSSVILLE     43  34  49  28 /   0  10  40  30
COLUMBIA       50  38  55  31 /   0  20  30  10
LAWRENCEBURG   50  38  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
WAVERLY        50  41  55  30 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19












000
FXUS64 KOHX 281214
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SHUNSHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR CHANCE POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR A BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--
WEATHER RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      49  38  54  31 /   0  20  30  10
CLARKSVILLE    48  39  53  29 /   0  20  30  10
CROSSVILLE     43  34  49  28 /   0  10  40  30
COLUMBIA       50  38  55  31 /   0  20  30  10
LAWRENCEBURG   50  38  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
WAVERLY        50  41  55  30 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19












000
FXUS64 KMRX 281146
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
645 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...A FEW LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER NEAR
CHA FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB



000
FXUS64 KMRX 281146
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
645 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...A FEW LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER NEAR
CHA FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB




000
FXUS64 KOHX 281129
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
529 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...LOOK FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO ERODE BY
13Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
WITH SFC WINDS INCREASING AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SUNSHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR LIKELY POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR A BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--
WEATHER RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 281129
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
529 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...LOOK FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO ERODE BY
13Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
WITH SFC WINDS INCREASING AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SUNSHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR LIKELY POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR A BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--
WEATHER RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




000
FXUS64 KMEG 281116 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
516 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 305 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

CURRENTLY A PEACEFUL WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH
CLEAR SKIES...CALM OR LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.

FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE. BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOUD COVER. MILDER HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WITH SOME MIDSOUTHERNERS SEEING 60 DEGREE WEATHER.
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL FILTER IN FRIDAY DROPPING HIGHS TO BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD STILL BEING
ASSESSED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE PHASING OF TROUGHS IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE PLACE
STARTING SATURDAY OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS ACTION WILL ALLOW A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO STREAM IN DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AND MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRIGGERED BY THE
UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM TEXAS TO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PULLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA BEFORE
SUBFREEZING AIR MOVES IN...IS STILL BEING HASHED OUT BETWEEN EACH
MODEL AND MODEL RUN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCES LOW
FOR BOTH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AND FOR ALL SNOW. IF BETTER MODEL
CONSISTENCY LEANS TOWARDS LINGERING PRECIPITATION...THE EASTERN
AREA COULD SEE SMALL ACCUMULATIONS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY
WITH CAA DROPPING 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM INTO THE -6C TO -10C
RANGE. THUS HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER...AND WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WINDCHILLS WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. SO A COLD
START FOR THE FIRST WORK DAY OF FEBRUARY 2015.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH PRECIPITATION FREE AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (28/12Z-29/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TURNING SE-S
TODAY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KTS. WINDS CONTINUING TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AT KJBR...KMEM...AND KMKL BECOMING
GUSTY AFTER 28/05Z-06Z. WINDS TONIGHT AT KTUP S AROUND 7 KTS. MAY
HAVE TO CONSIDER MENTION OF LLWS IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT IN LATER
FORECASTS WITH STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 281116 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
516 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 305 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

CURRENTLY A PEACEFUL WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH
CLEAR SKIES...CALM OR LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.

FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE. BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOUD COVER. MILDER HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WITH SOME MIDSOUTHERNERS SEEING 60 DEGREE WEATHER.
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL FILTER IN FRIDAY DROPPING HIGHS TO BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD STILL BEING
ASSESSED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE PHASING OF TROUGHS IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE PLACE
STARTING SATURDAY OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS ACTION WILL ALLOW A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO STREAM IN DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AND MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRIGGERED BY THE
UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM TEXAS TO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PULLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA BEFORE
SUBFREEZING AIR MOVES IN...IS STILL BEING HASHED OUT BETWEEN EACH
MODEL AND MODEL RUN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCES LOW
FOR BOTH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AND FOR ALL SNOW. IF BETTER MODEL
CONSISTENCY LEANS TOWARDS LINGERING PRECIPITATION...THE EASTERN
AREA COULD SEE SMALL ACCUMULATIONS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY
WITH CAA DROPPING 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM INTO THE -6C TO -10C
RANGE. THUS HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER...AND WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WINDCHILLS WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. SO A COLD
START FOR THE FIRST WORK DAY OF FEBRUARY 2015.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH PRECIPITATION FREE AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (28/12Z-29/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TURNING SE-S
TODAY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KTS. WINDS CONTINUING TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AT KJBR...KMEM...AND KMKL BECOMING
GUSTY AFTER 28/05Z-06Z. WINDS TONIGHT AT KTUP S AROUND 7 KTS. MAY
HAVE TO CONSIDER MENTION OF LLWS IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT IN LATER
FORECASTS WITH STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 281116 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
516 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 305 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

CURRENTLY A PEACEFUL WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH
CLEAR SKIES...CALM OR LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.

FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE. BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOUD COVER. MILDER HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WITH SOME MIDSOUTHERNERS SEEING 60 DEGREE WEATHER.
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL FILTER IN FRIDAY DROPPING HIGHS TO BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD STILL BEING
ASSESSED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE PHASING OF TROUGHS IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE PLACE
STARTING SATURDAY OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS ACTION WILL ALLOW A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO STREAM IN DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AND MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRIGGERED BY THE
UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM TEXAS TO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PULLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA BEFORE
SUBFREEZING AIR MOVES IN...IS STILL BEING HASHED OUT BETWEEN EACH
MODEL AND MODEL RUN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCES LOW
FOR BOTH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AND FOR ALL SNOW. IF BETTER MODEL
CONSISTENCY LEANS TOWARDS LINGERING PRECIPITATION...THE EASTERN
AREA COULD SEE SMALL ACCUMULATIONS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY
WITH CAA DROPPING 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM INTO THE -6C TO -10C
RANGE. THUS HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER...AND WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WINDCHILLS WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. SO A COLD
START FOR THE FIRST WORK DAY OF FEBRUARY 2015.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH PRECIPITATION FREE AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (28/12Z-29/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TURNING SE-S
TODAY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KTS. WINDS CONTINUING TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AT KJBR...KMEM...AND KMKL BECOMING
GUSTY AFTER 28/05Z-06Z. WINDS TONIGHT AT KTUP S AROUND 7 KTS. MAY
HAVE TO CONSIDER MENTION OF LLWS IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT IN LATER
FORECASTS WITH STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 281116 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
516 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 305 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

CURRENTLY A PEACEFUL WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH
CLEAR SKIES...CALM OR LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.

FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE. BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOUD COVER. MILDER HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WITH SOME MIDSOUTHERNERS SEEING 60 DEGREE WEATHER.
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL FILTER IN FRIDAY DROPPING HIGHS TO BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD STILL BEING
ASSESSED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE PHASING OF TROUGHS IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE PLACE
STARTING SATURDAY OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS ACTION WILL ALLOW A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO STREAM IN DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AND MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRIGGERED BY THE
UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM TEXAS TO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PULLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA BEFORE
SUBFREEZING AIR MOVES IN...IS STILL BEING HASHED OUT BETWEEN EACH
MODEL AND MODEL RUN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCES LOW
FOR BOTH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AND FOR ALL SNOW. IF BETTER MODEL
CONSISTENCY LEANS TOWARDS LINGERING PRECIPITATION...THE EASTERN
AREA COULD SEE SMALL ACCUMULATIONS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY
WITH CAA DROPPING 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM INTO THE -6C TO -10C
RANGE. THUS HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER...AND WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WINDCHILLS WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. SO A COLD
START FOR THE FIRST WORK DAY OF FEBRUARY 2015.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH PRECIPITATION FREE AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (28/12Z-29/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TURNING SE-S
TODAY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KTS. WINDS CONTINUING TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AT KJBR...KMEM...AND KMKL BECOMING
GUSTY AFTER 28/05Z-06Z. WINDS TONIGHT AT KTUP S AROUND 7 KTS. MAY
HAVE TO CONSIDER MENTION OF LLWS IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT IN LATER
FORECASTS WITH STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 281027
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SHUNSHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR LIKELY POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR A BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--
WEATHER RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      49  38  54  31 /   0  20  30  10
CLARKSVILLE    48  39  53  29 /   0  20  30  10
CROSSVILLE     43  34  49  28 /   0  10  40  30
COLUMBIA       50  38  55  31 /   0  20  30  10
LAWRENCEBURG   50  38  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
WAVERLY        50  41  55  30 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19









000
FXUS64 KOHX 281027
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SHUNSHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR LIKELY POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR A BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--
WEATHER RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      49  38  54  31 /   0  20  30  10
CLARKSVILLE    48  39  53  29 /   0  20  30  10
CROSSVILLE     43  34  49  28 /   0  10  40  30
COLUMBIA       50  38  55  31 /   0  20  30  10
LAWRENCEBURG   50  38  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
WAVERLY        50  41  55  30 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19










000
FXUS64 KOHX 281024
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SHUNSHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR LIKELY POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--WEATHER
RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      49  38  54  31 /   0  20  30  10
CLARKSVILLE    48  39  53  29 /   0  20  30  10
CROSSVILLE     43  34  49  28 /   0  10  40  30
COLUMBIA       50  38  55  31 /   0  20  30  10
LAWRENCEBURG   50  38  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
WAVERLY        50  41  55  30 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19








000
FXUS64 KOHX 281024
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SHUNSHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR LIKELY POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--WEATHER
RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      49  38  54  31 /   0  20  30  10
CLARKSVILLE    48  39  53  29 /   0  20  30  10
CROSSVILLE     43  34  49  28 /   0  10  40  30
COLUMBIA       50  38  55  31 /   0  20  30  10
LAWRENCEBURG   50  38  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
WAVERLY        50  41  55  30 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19









000
FXUS64 KOHX 280943
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SHUNSHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR LIKELY POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--WEATHER
RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      49  38  54  31 /   0  20  30  10
CLARKSVILLE    48  39  53  29 /   0  20  30  10
CROSSVILLE     43  34  49  28 /   0  10  40  30
COLUMBIA       50  38  55  31 /   0  20  30  10
LAWRENCEBURG   50  38  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
WAVERLY        50  41  55  30 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 280943
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SHUNSHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR LIKELY POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--WEATHER
RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      49  38  54  31 /   0  20  30  10
CLARKSVILLE    48  39  53  29 /   0  20  30  10
CROSSVILLE     43  34  49  28 /   0  10  40  30
COLUMBIA       50  38  55  31 /   0  20  30  10
LAWRENCEBURG   50  38  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
WAVERLY        50  41  55  30 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 280943
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SHUNSHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR LIKELY POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--WEATHER
RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      49  38  54  31 /   0  20  30  10
CLARKSVILLE    48  39  53  29 /   0  20  30  10
CROSSVILLE     43  34  49  28 /   0  10  40  30
COLUMBIA       50  38  55  31 /   0  20  30  10
LAWRENCEBURG   50  38  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
WAVERLY        50  41  55  30 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 280943
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SHUNSHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR LIKELY POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--WEATHER
RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      49  38  54  31 /   0  20  30  10
CLARKSVILLE    48  39  53  29 /   0  20  30  10
CROSSVILLE     43  34  49  28 /   0  10  40  30
COLUMBIA       50  38  55  31 /   0  20  30  10
LAWRENCEBURG   50  38  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
WAVERLY        50  41  55  30 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 280943
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SHUNSHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR LIKELY POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--WEATHER
RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      49  38  54  31 /   0  20  30  10
CLARKSVILLE    48  39  53  29 /   0  20  30  10
CROSSVILLE     43  34  49  28 /   0  10  40  30
COLUMBIA       50  38  55  31 /   0  20  30  10
LAWRENCEBURG   50  38  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
WAVERLY        50  41  55  30 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 280943
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SHUNSHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR LIKELY POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--WEATHER
RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      49  38  54  31 /   0  20  30  10
CLARKSVILLE    48  39  53  29 /   0  20  30  10
CROSSVILLE     43  34  49  28 /   0  10  40  30
COLUMBIA       50  38  55  31 /   0  20  30  10
LAWRENCEBURG   50  38  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
WAVERLY        50  41  55  30 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KMEG 280905
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
305 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY A PEACEFUL WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH
CLEAR SKIES...CALM OR LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.

FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE. BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOUD COVER. MILDER HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WITH SOME MIDSOUTHERNERS SEEING 60 DEGREE WEATHER.
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL FILTER IN FRIDAY DROPPING HIGHS TO BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD STILL BEING
ASSESSED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE PHASING OF TROUGHS IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE PLACE
STARTING SATURDAY OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS ACTION WILL ALLOW A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO STREAM IN DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AND MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRIGGERED BY THE
UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM TEXAS TO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PULLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA BEFORE
SUBFREEZING AIR MOVES IN...IS STILL BEING HASHED OUT BETWEEN EACH
MODEL AND MODEL RUN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCES LOW
FOR BOTH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AND FOR ALL SNOW. IF BETTER MODEL
CONSISTENCY LEANS TOWARDS LINGERING PRECIPITATION...THE EASTERN
AREA COULD SEE SMALL ACCUMULATIONS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY
WITH CAA DROPPING 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM INTO THE -6C TO -10C
RANGE. THUS HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER...AND WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WINDCHILLS WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. SO A COLD
START FOR THE FIRST WORK DAY OF FEBRUARY 2015.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH PRECIPITATION FREE AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...TO NEAR 10 KTS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT TUP. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF WINDOW NEAR 00Z WHERE WINDS DECREASE BUT A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MAINTAIN OR INCREASE SURFACE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 280905
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
305 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY A PEACEFUL WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH
CLEAR SKIES...CALM OR LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.

FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE. BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOUD COVER. MILDER HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WITH SOME MIDSOUTHERNERS SEEING 60 DEGREE WEATHER.
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL FILTER IN FRIDAY DROPPING HIGHS TO BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD STILL BEING
ASSESSED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE PHASING OF TROUGHS IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE PLACE
STARTING SATURDAY OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS ACTION WILL ALLOW A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO STREAM IN DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AND MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRIGGERED BY THE
UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM TEXAS TO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PULLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA BEFORE
SUBFREEZING AIR MOVES IN...IS STILL BEING HASHED OUT BETWEEN EACH
MODEL AND MODEL RUN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCES LOW
FOR BOTH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AND FOR ALL SNOW. IF BETTER MODEL
CONSISTENCY LEANS TOWARDS LINGERING PRECIPITATION...THE EASTERN
AREA COULD SEE SMALL ACCUMULATIONS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY
WITH CAA DROPPING 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM INTO THE -6C TO -10C
RANGE. THUS HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER...AND WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WINDCHILLS WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. SO A COLD
START FOR THE FIRST WORK DAY OF FEBRUARY 2015.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH PRECIPITATION FREE AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...TO NEAR 10 KTS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT TUP. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF WINDOW NEAR 00Z WHERE WINDS DECREASE BUT A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MAINTAIN OR INCREASE SURFACE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 280905
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
305 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY A PEACEFUL WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH
CLEAR SKIES...CALM OR LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.

FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE. BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOUD COVER. MILDER HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WITH SOME MIDSOUTHERNERS SEEING 60 DEGREE WEATHER.
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL FILTER IN FRIDAY DROPPING HIGHS TO BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD STILL BEING
ASSESSED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE PHASING OF TROUGHS IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE PLACE
STARTING SATURDAY OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS ACTION WILL ALLOW A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO STREAM IN DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AND MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRIGGERED BY THE
UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM TEXAS TO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PULLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA BEFORE
SUBFREEZING AIR MOVES IN...IS STILL BEING HASHED OUT BETWEEN EACH
MODEL AND MODEL RUN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCES LOW
FOR BOTH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AND FOR ALL SNOW. IF BETTER MODEL
CONSISTENCY LEANS TOWARDS LINGERING PRECIPITATION...THE EASTERN
AREA COULD SEE SMALL ACCUMULATIONS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY
WITH CAA DROPPING 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM INTO THE -6C TO -10C
RANGE. THUS HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER...AND WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WINDCHILLS WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. SO A COLD
START FOR THE FIRST WORK DAY OF FEBRUARY 2015.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH PRECIPITATION FREE AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...TO NEAR 10 KTS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT TUP. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF WINDOW NEAR 00Z WHERE WINDS DECREASE BUT A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MAINTAIN OR INCREASE SURFACE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 280905
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
305 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY A PEACEFUL WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH
CLEAR SKIES...CALM OR LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.

FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE. BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOUD COVER. MILDER HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WITH SOME MIDSOUTHERNERS SEEING 60 DEGREE WEATHER.
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL FILTER IN FRIDAY DROPPING HIGHS TO BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD STILL BEING
ASSESSED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE PHASING OF TROUGHS IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE PLACE
STARTING SATURDAY OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS ACTION WILL ALLOW A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO STREAM IN DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AND MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRIGGERED BY THE
UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM TEXAS TO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PULLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA BEFORE
SUBFREEZING AIR MOVES IN...IS STILL BEING HASHED OUT BETWEEN EACH
MODEL AND MODEL RUN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCES LOW
FOR BOTH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AND FOR ALL SNOW. IF BETTER MODEL
CONSISTENCY LEANS TOWARDS LINGERING PRECIPITATION...THE EASTERN
AREA COULD SEE SMALL ACCUMULATIONS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY
WITH CAA DROPPING 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM INTO THE -6C TO -10C
RANGE. THUS HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER...AND WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WINDCHILLS WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. SO A COLD
START FOR THE FIRST WORK DAY OF FEBRUARY 2015.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH PRECIPITATION FREE AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...TO NEAR 10 KTS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT TUP. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF WINDOW NEAR 00Z WHERE WINDS DECREASE BUT A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MAINTAIN OR INCREASE SURFACE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 280905
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
305 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY A PEACEFUL WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH
CLEAR SKIES...CALM OR LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.

FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE. BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOUD COVER. MILDER HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WITH SOME MIDSOUTHERNERS SEEING 60 DEGREE WEATHER.
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL FILTER IN FRIDAY DROPPING HIGHS TO BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD STILL BEING
ASSESSED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE PHASING OF TROUGHS IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE PLACE
STARTING SATURDAY OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS ACTION WILL ALLOW A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO STREAM IN DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AND MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRIGGERED BY THE
UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM TEXAS TO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PULLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA BEFORE
SUBFREEZING AIR MOVES IN...IS STILL BEING HASHED OUT BETWEEN EACH
MODEL AND MODEL RUN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCES LOW
FOR BOTH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AND FOR ALL SNOW. IF BETTER MODEL
CONSISTENCY LEANS TOWARDS LINGERING PRECIPITATION...THE EASTERN
AREA COULD SEE SMALL ACCUMULATIONS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY
WITH CAA DROPPING 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM INTO THE -6C TO -10C
RANGE. THUS HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER...AND WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WINDCHILLS WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. SO A COLD
START FOR THE FIRST WORK DAY OF FEBRUARY 2015.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH PRECIPITATION FREE AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...TO NEAR 10 KTS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT TUP. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF WINDOW NEAR 00Z WHERE WINDS DECREASE BUT A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MAINTAIN OR INCREASE SURFACE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 280905
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
305 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY A PEACEFUL WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH
CLEAR SKIES...CALM OR LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.

FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE. BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOUD COVER. MILDER HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WITH SOME MIDSOUTHERNERS SEEING 60 DEGREE WEATHER.
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL FILTER IN FRIDAY DROPPING HIGHS TO BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD STILL BEING
ASSESSED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE PHASING OF TROUGHS IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE PLACE
STARTING SATURDAY OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS ACTION WILL ALLOW A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO STREAM IN DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AND MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRIGGERED BY THE
UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM TEXAS TO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PULLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA BEFORE
SUBFREEZING AIR MOVES IN...IS STILL BEING HASHED OUT BETWEEN EACH
MODEL AND MODEL RUN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCES LOW
FOR BOTH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AND FOR ALL SNOW. IF BETTER MODEL
CONSISTENCY LEANS TOWARDS LINGERING PRECIPITATION...THE EASTERN
AREA COULD SEE SMALL ACCUMULATIONS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY
WITH CAA DROPPING 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM INTO THE -6C TO -10C
RANGE. THUS HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER...AND WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WINDCHILLS WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. SO A COLD
START FOR THE FIRST WORK DAY OF FEBRUARY 2015.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH PRECIPITATION FREE AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...TO NEAR 10 KTS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT TUP. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF WINDOW NEAR 00Z WHERE WINDS DECREASE BUT A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MAINTAIN OR INCREASE SURFACE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 280758
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
255 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A STRAY POCKET OF FLURRIES MOVING
THROUGH WV MAY REACH INTO FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND POSSIBLY THE EAST
TN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING.  NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR A QUITE SHORT TERM WITH
CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
FOR THE MOST PART...ALTHOUGH SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND TIMING
ISSUES FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.  FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  A COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY/EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT.  MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN HIGH CHANCE POPS THURSDAY. SETUP
DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE COLD
ADVECTION THU NIGHT...BUT GOOD ENOUGH TO CARRY LIKELY POPS IN THE
USUAL HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN THE USUAL HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS.
WILL MENTION IN HWO.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
EARLY FRIDAY...THEN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY.  NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO
AFFECT THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY.  MODELS HAVE
HAD CONSISTENCY ISSUES...BUT TREND SEEMS TO INDICATE MUCH OF THE
PRECIP ON THE FRONT END OF THIS WILL BE RAIN...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN ON THE BACK SIDE LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY.  LOOKS DRY TUESDAY FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             49  34  55  34 /  10  10  20  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  42  29  52  32 /  10  10  30  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       42  29  50  32 /  10  10  30  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              39  23  50  30 /  10  10  40  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB/LW



000
FXUS64 KMRX 280612
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
100 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE SLOWLY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH ANOTHER BAND OF CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM WV.   TRI HAS ALREADY EXPERIENCED CLEARING...BUT SHOULD SEE
THIS SECOND BAND MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT.  THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT OF THE TYS AREA SHORTLY WITH CLEARING EXPECTED NEAR CHA AROUND
10Z TO 12Z.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE
TAF SITE FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WHICH WILL RESULT IN
CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 280612
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
100 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE SLOWLY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH ANOTHER BAND OF CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM WV.   TRI HAS ALREADY EXPERIENCED CLEARING...BUT SHOULD SEE
THIS SECOND BAND MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT.  THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT OF THE TYS AREA SHORTLY WITH CLEARING EXPECTED NEAR CHA AROUND
10Z TO 12Z.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE
TAF SITE FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WHICH WILL RESULT IN
CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 280612
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
100 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE SLOWLY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH ANOTHER BAND OF CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM WV.   TRI HAS ALREADY EXPERIENCED CLEARING...BUT SHOULD SEE
THIS SECOND BAND MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT.  THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT OF THE TYS AREA SHORTLY WITH CLEARING EXPECTED NEAR CHA AROUND
10Z TO 12Z.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE
TAF SITE FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WHICH WILL RESULT IN
CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 280551
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1151 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
BEGINNING TO GET A FEW REPORTS OF FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE PLATEAU...EVEN
WITH LOW DECK OVERHEAD SO HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO MENTION PATCHY FOG IN FORECAST. IF SKIES
CLEAR LATER IN THE NIGHT FOG COULD BECOME DENSE.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 280551
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1151 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
BEGINNING TO GET A FEW REPORTS OF FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE PLATEAU...EVEN
WITH LOW DECK OVERHEAD SO HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO MENTION PATCHY FOG IN FORECAST. IF SKIES
CLEAR LATER IN THE NIGHT FOG COULD BECOME DENSE.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 280551
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1151 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
BEGINNING TO GET A FEW REPORTS OF FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE PLATEAU...EVEN
WITH LOW DECK OVERHEAD SO HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO MENTION PATCHY FOG IN FORECAST. IF SKIES
CLEAR LATER IN THE NIGHT FOG COULD BECOME DENSE.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 280551
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1151 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
BEGINNING TO GET A FEW REPORTS OF FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE PLATEAU...EVEN
WITH LOW DECK OVERHEAD SO HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO MENTION PATCHY FOG IN FORECAST. IF SKIES
CLEAR LATER IN THE NIGHT FOG COULD BECOME DENSE.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 280551
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1151 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
BEGINNING TO GET A FEW REPORTS OF FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE PLATEAU...EVEN
WITH LOW DECK OVERHEAD SO HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO MENTION PATCHY FOG IN FORECAST. IF SKIES
CLEAR LATER IN THE NIGHT FOG COULD BECOME DENSE.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KMEG 280524
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1124 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS BELOW...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE 30S PREVAILED
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AT 9 PM. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AS SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST.

A FEW FORECAST UPDATES WERE MADE THIS EVENING...WITH ADJUSTMENTS
TO SKY CONDITION AND OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN ANOTHER PLEASANT
MIDWINTER DAY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...HIGHS MAY CLIMB
ANOTHER DEGREE...BUT I DON`T EXPECT TO SEE ANY LOCATION MAKING IT
TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW AND THURSDAY SHOULD
BE WARMER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOW 60S.

A STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH IN THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
WILL DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
THURSDAY. WESTERN AREAS MAY SEE THEIR WARMEST TEMPERATURES BEFORE
NOON...WITH NORTHERLY WIND USHERING IN COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
KEEP ANY RAINFALL IN THE LIQUID FORM. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED...SO RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL BE IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN IN WEST
TENNESSEE...AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI...MAINLY NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE
LINE AND TENNESSEE RIVER AFTER NOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN RESULTING IN COOLER BUT DRY CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST 24
HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...FEATURING LOWS
NEAR FREEZING AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES.
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. IF MOISTURE ARRIVES EARLY
ENOUGH SATURDAY A FEW FLURRIES OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
EAST ARKANSAS...BUT ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
QUICKLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ENDING EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ONE QUARTER
TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD EARLY PREDICTION.
HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S WITH MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MARK THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IS
TYPICAL...THE COLDER AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE
MOISTURE HAS EXITED STAGE EAST.

30

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...TO NEAR 10 KTS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT TUP. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF WINDOW NEAR 00Z WHERE WINDS DECREASE BUT A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MAINTAIN OR INCREASE SURFACE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 280524
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1124 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS BELOW...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE 30S PREVAILED
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AT 9 PM. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AS SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST.

A FEW FORECAST UPDATES WERE MADE THIS EVENING...WITH ADJUSTMENTS
TO SKY CONDITION AND OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN ANOTHER PLEASANT
MIDWINTER DAY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...HIGHS MAY CLIMB
ANOTHER DEGREE...BUT I DON`T EXPECT TO SEE ANY LOCATION MAKING IT
TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW AND THURSDAY SHOULD
BE WARMER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOW 60S.

A STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH IN THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
WILL DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
THURSDAY. WESTERN AREAS MAY SEE THEIR WARMEST TEMPERATURES BEFORE
NOON...WITH NORTHERLY WIND USHERING IN COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
KEEP ANY RAINFALL IN THE LIQUID FORM. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED...SO RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL BE IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN IN WEST
TENNESSEE...AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI...MAINLY NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE
LINE AND TENNESSEE RIVER AFTER NOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN RESULTING IN COOLER BUT DRY CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST 24
HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...FEATURING LOWS
NEAR FREEZING AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES.
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. IF MOISTURE ARRIVES EARLY
ENOUGH SATURDAY A FEW FLURRIES OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
EAST ARKANSAS...BUT ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
QUICKLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ENDING EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ONE QUARTER
TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD EARLY PREDICTION.
HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S WITH MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MARK THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IS
TYPICAL...THE COLDER AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE
MOISTURE HAS EXITED STAGE EAST.

30

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...TO NEAR 10 KTS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT TUP. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF WINDOW NEAR 00Z WHERE WINDS DECREASE BUT A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MAINTAIN OR INCREASE SURFACE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 280518
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1118 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...

FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

PESKY MVFR/IFR CLOUD DECK REMAINS OVER THE MID-SOUTH BUT DRYING
IS OCCURRING. EXPECTED CLOUDS TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT
CKV TO CSV 08-11Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED 12Z THROUGH REMAINDER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE THE FLURRIES/DRIZZLE COMBO IS DWINDLING AS IT MOVES
DOWN INTERSTATE 65 SOUTH OF NASHVILLE. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
ERODE AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONCE CLOUDS BREAK UP
TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO FORECAST LOWS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07






000
FXUS64 KOHX 280518
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1118 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...

FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

PESKY MVFR/IFR CLOUD DECK REMAINS OVER THE MID-SOUTH BUT DRYING
IS OCCURRING. EXPECTED CLOUDS TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT
CKV TO CSV 08-11Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED 12Z THROUGH REMAINDER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE THE FLURRIES/DRIZZLE COMBO IS DWINDLING AS IT MOVES
DOWN INTERSTATE 65 SOUTH OF NASHVILLE. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
ERODE AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONCE CLOUDS BREAK UP
TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO FORECAST LOWS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07







000
FXUS64 KMEG 280315 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
915 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE 30S PREVAILED
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AT 9 PM. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AS SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST.

A FEW FORECAST UPDATES WERE MADE THIS EVENING...WITH ADJUSTMENTS
TO SKY CONDITION AND OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN ANOTHER PLEASANT
MIDWINTER DAY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...HIGHS MAY CLIMB
ANOTHER DEGREE...BUT I DON`T EXPECT TO SEE ANY LOCATION MAKING IT
TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW AND THURSDAY SHOULD
BE WARMER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOW 60S.

A STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH IN THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
WILL DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
THURSDAY. WESTERN AREAS MAY SEE THEIR WARMEST TEMPERATURES BEFORE
NOON...WITH NORTHERLY WIND USHERING IN COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
KEEP ANY RAINFALL IN THE LIQUID FORM. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED...SO RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL BE IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN IN WEST
TENNESSEE...AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI...MAINLY NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE
LINE AND TENNESSEE RIVER AFTER NOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN RESULTING IN COOLER BUT DRY CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST 24
HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...FEATURING LOWS
NEAR FREEZING AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES.
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. IF MOISTURE ARRIVES EARLY
ENOUGH SATURDAY A FEW FLURRIES OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
EAST ARKANSAS...BUT ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
QUICKLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ENDING EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ONE QUARTER
TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD EARLY PREDICTION.
HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S WITH MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MARK THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IS
TYPICAL...THE COLDER AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE
MOISTURE HAS EXITED STAGE EAST.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT BELOW 5KTS AT ALL TAF SITES AND GRADUALLY GAIN
MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ON WEDNESDAY WHILE REMAINING
RELATIVELY LIGHT. MEM WILL APPROACH 10 KTS...BUT FALL AGAIN
TOWARD 00Z THURSDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 280302
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
902 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE THE FLURRIES/DRIZZLE COMBO IS DWINDLING AS IT MOVES
DOWN INTERSTATE 65 SOUTH OF NASHVILLE. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
ERODE AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONCE CLOUDS BREAK UP
TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO FORECAST LOWS.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 280302
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
902 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE THE FLURRIES/DRIZZLE COMBO IS DWINDLING AS IT MOVES
DOWN INTERSTATE 65 SOUTH OF NASHVILLE. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
ERODE AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONCE CLOUDS BREAK UP
TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO FORECAST LOWS.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 280302
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
902 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE THE FLURRIES/DRIZZLE COMBO IS DWINDLING AS IT MOVES
DOWN INTERSTATE 65 SOUTH OF NASHVILLE. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
ERODE AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONCE CLOUDS BREAK UP
TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO FORECAST LOWS.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 280302
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
902 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE THE FLURRIES/DRIZZLE COMBO IS DWINDLING AS IT MOVES
DOWN INTERSTATE 65 SOUTH OF NASHVILLE. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
ERODE AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONCE CLOUDS BREAK UP
TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO FORECAST LOWS.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 280302
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
902 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE THE FLURRIES/DRIZZLE COMBO IS DWINDLING AS IT MOVES
DOWN INTERSTATE 65 SOUTH OF NASHVILLE. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
ERODE AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONCE CLOUDS BREAK UP
TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO FORECAST LOWS.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 280302
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
902 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE THE FLURRIES/DRIZZLE COMBO IS DWINDLING AS IT MOVES
DOWN INTERSTATE 65 SOUTH OF NASHVILLE. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
ERODE AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONCE CLOUDS BREAK UP
TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO FORECAST LOWS.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 280302
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
902 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE THE FLURRIES/DRIZZLE COMBO IS DWINDLING AS IT MOVES
DOWN INTERSTATE 65 SOUTH OF NASHVILLE. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
ERODE AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONCE CLOUDS BREAK UP
TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO FORECAST LOWS.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 280302
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
902 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE THE FLURRIES/DRIZZLE COMBO IS DWINDLING AS IT MOVES
DOWN INTERSTATE 65 SOUTH OF NASHVILLE. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
ERODE AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONCE CLOUDS BREAK UP
TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO FORECAST LOWS.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 280302
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
902 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE THE FLURRIES/DRIZZLE COMBO IS DWINDLING AS IT MOVES
DOWN INTERSTATE 65 SOUTH OF NASHVILLE. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
ERODE AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONCE CLOUDS BREAK UP
TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO FORECAST LOWS.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 280302
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
902 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE THE FLURRIES/DRIZZLE COMBO IS DWINDLING AS IT MOVES
DOWN INTERSTATE 65 SOUTH OF NASHVILLE. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
ERODE AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONCE CLOUDS BREAK UP
TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO FORECAST LOWS.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KMRX 280245
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
945 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE GRADUAL CLEARING TREND CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY
SOUTH WITH ALL OF SW VA AND NE TN NOW CLEAR. PLATEAU COUNTIES AND
AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 HOURS.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK...BUT WILL FRESHEN THE HOURLY TEMPS SHORTLY
AND UPDATE ANY AFFECTED WEB PRODUCTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             27  48  32  54 /   0   0  10  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  21  44  28  50 /   0   0  10  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       23  43  30  49 /   0   0  10  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              16  39  24  46 /  10   0  10  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 280245
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
945 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE GRADUAL CLEARING TREND CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY
SOUTH WITH ALL OF SW VA AND NE TN NOW CLEAR. PLATEAU COUNTIES AND
AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 HOURS.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK...BUT WILL FRESHEN THE HOURLY TEMPS SHORTLY
AND UPDATE ANY AFFECTED WEB PRODUCTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             27  48  32  54 /   0   0  10  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  21  44  28  50 /   0   0  10  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       23  43  30  49 /   0   0  10  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              16  39  24  46 /  10   0  10  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG



000
FXUS64 KMRX 280245
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
945 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE GRADUAL CLEARING TREND CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY
SOUTH WITH ALL OF SW VA AND NE TN NOW CLEAR. PLATEAU COUNTIES AND
AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 HOURS.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK...BUT WILL FRESHEN THE HOURLY TEMPS SHORTLY
AND UPDATE ANY AFFECTED WEB PRODUCTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             27  48  32  54 /   0   0  10  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  21  44  28  50 /   0   0  10  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       23  43  30  49 /   0   0  10  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              16  39  24  46 /  10   0  10  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG



000
FXUS64 KMRX 280245
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
945 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE GRADUAL CLEARING TREND CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY
SOUTH WITH ALL OF SW VA AND NE TN NOW CLEAR. PLATEAU COUNTIES AND
AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 HOURS.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK...BUT WILL FRESHEN THE HOURLY TEMPS SHORTLY
AND UPDATE ANY AFFECTED WEB PRODUCTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             27  48  32  54 /   0   0  10  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  21  44  28  50 /   0   0  10  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       23  43  30  49 /   0   0  10  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              16  39  24  46 /  10   0  10  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KOHX 280127
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
727 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED EVENING FORECAST TO INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW AND GRAUPEL IN
A NORTH TO SOUTH 50 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR FOR EAST CENTRAL MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. 01Z LAPS SHOWING ABOUT 100 MBAR LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM
950 MBARS TO 850 MBARS. THIS SHOULD MOVE ON THROUGH OVER THE NEXT
2 TO 3 HOURS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 280127
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
727 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED EVENING FORECAST TO INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW AND GRAUPEL IN
A NORTH TO SOUTH 50 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR FOR EAST CENTRAL MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. 01Z LAPS SHOWING ABOUT 100 MBAR LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM
950 MBARS TO 850 MBARS. THIS SHOULD MOVE ON THROUGH OVER THE NEXT
2 TO 3 HOURS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 280127
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
727 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED EVENING FORECAST TO INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW AND GRAUPEL IN
A NORTH TO SOUTH 50 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR FOR EAST CENTRAL MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. 01Z LAPS SHOWING ABOUT 100 MBAR LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM
950 MBARS TO 850 MBARS. THIS SHOULD MOVE ON THROUGH OVER THE NEXT
2 TO 3 HOURS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 280127
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
727 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED EVENING FORECAST TO INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW AND GRAUPEL IN
A NORTH TO SOUTH 50 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR FOR EAST CENTRAL MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. 01Z LAPS SHOWING ABOUT 100 MBAR LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM
950 MBARS TO 850 MBARS. THIS SHOULD MOVE ON THROUGH OVER THE NEXT
2 TO 3 HOURS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 280013
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
613 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
1026 MBAR HIGH CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING RIDGING
DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. WE STILL HAVE STRONG
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN U.S. LAPS SOUNDING SHOWING ABOUT
A 100 MBAR LAYER OF MOISTURE IN LOWER LEVELS OF TROPOSPHERE TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO EXPECT MVFR LOW DECK TO REMAIN
AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT POSSIBLY A LITTLE LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY PLATEAU AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SCOUR THIS OUT.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 280013
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
613 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
1026 MBAR HIGH CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING RIDGING
DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. WE STILL HAVE STRONG
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN U.S. LAPS SOUNDING SHOWING ABOUT
A 100 MBAR LAYER OF MOISTURE IN LOWER LEVELS OF TROPOSPHERE TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO EXPECT MVFR LOW DECK TO REMAIN
AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT POSSIBLY A LITTLE LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY PLATEAU AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SCOUR THIS OUT.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 280013
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
613 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
1026 MBAR HIGH CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING RIDGING
DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. WE STILL HAVE STRONG
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN U.S. LAPS SOUNDING SHOWING ABOUT
A 100 MBAR LAYER OF MOISTURE IN LOWER LEVELS OF TROPOSPHERE TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO EXPECT MVFR LOW DECK TO REMAIN
AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT POSSIBLY A LITTLE LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY PLATEAU AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SCOUR THIS OUT.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 280013
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
613 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
1026 MBAR HIGH CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING RIDGING
DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. WE STILL HAVE STRONG
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN U.S. LAPS SOUNDING SHOWING ABOUT
A 100 MBAR LAYER OF MOISTURE IN LOWER LEVELS OF TROPOSPHERE TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO EXPECT MVFR LOW DECK TO REMAIN
AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT POSSIBLY A LITTLE LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY PLATEAU AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SCOUR THIS OUT.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KMRX 272347
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
647 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO BREAK OUT AROUND 03-09Z
AT TYS AND CHA WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. TRI
SHOULD BE CLEAR EARLY ON IN THE PERIOD. MORE VFR FLIGHT WEATHER IN
STORE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 272347
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
647 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO BREAK OUT AROUND 03-09Z
AT TYS AND CHA WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. TRI
SHOULD BE CLEAR EARLY ON IN THE PERIOD. MORE VFR FLIGHT WEATHER IN
STORE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 272313
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
513 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN ANOTHER PLEASANT
MIDWINTER DAY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...HIGHS MAY CLIMB
ANOTHER DEGREE...BUT I DON`T EXPECT TO SEE ANY LOCATION MAKING IT
TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW AND THURSDAY SHOULD
BE WARMER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOW 60S.

A STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH IN THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
WILL DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
THURSDAY. WESTERN AREAS MAY SEE THEIR WARMEST TEMPERATURES BEFORE
NOON...WITH NORTHERLY WIND USHERING IN COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
KEEP ANY RAINFALL IN THE LIQUID FORM. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED...SO RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL BE IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN IN WEST
TENNESSEE...AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI...MAINLY NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE
LINE AND TENNESSEE RIVER AFTER NOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN RESULTING IN COOLER BUT DRY CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST 24
HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...FEATURING LOWS
NEAR FREEZING AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES.
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. IF MOISTURE ARRIVES EARLY
ENOUGH SATURDAY A FEW FLURRIES OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
EAST ARKANSAS...BUT ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
QUICKLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ENDING EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ONE QUARTER
TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD EARLY PREDICTION.
HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S WITH MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MARK THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IS
TYPICAL...THE COLDER AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE
MOISTURE HAS EXITED STAGE EAST.

30

AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT BELOW 5KTS AT ALL TAF SITES AND GRADUALLY GAIN
MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ON WEDNESDAY WHILE REMAINING
RELATIVELY LIGHT. MEM WILL APPROACH 10 KTS...BUT FALL AGAIN
TOWARD 00Z THURSDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 272313
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
513 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN ANOTHER PLEASANT
MIDWINTER DAY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...HIGHS MAY CLIMB
ANOTHER DEGREE...BUT I DON`T EXPECT TO SEE ANY LOCATION MAKING IT
TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW AND THURSDAY SHOULD
BE WARMER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOW 60S.

A STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH IN THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
WILL DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
THURSDAY. WESTERN AREAS MAY SEE THEIR WARMEST TEMPERATURES BEFORE
NOON...WITH NORTHERLY WIND USHERING IN COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
KEEP ANY RAINFALL IN THE LIQUID FORM. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED...SO RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL BE IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN IN WEST
TENNESSEE...AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI...MAINLY NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE
LINE AND TENNESSEE RIVER AFTER NOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN RESULTING IN COOLER BUT DRY CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST 24
HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...FEATURING LOWS
NEAR FREEZING AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES.
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. IF MOISTURE ARRIVES EARLY
ENOUGH SATURDAY A FEW FLURRIES OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
EAST ARKANSAS...BUT ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
QUICKLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ENDING EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ONE QUARTER
TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD EARLY PREDICTION.
HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S WITH MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MARK THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IS
TYPICAL...THE COLDER AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE
MOISTURE HAS EXITED STAGE EAST.

30

AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT BELOW 5KTS AT ALL TAF SITES AND GRADUALLY GAIN
MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ON WEDNESDAY WHILE REMAINING
RELATIVELY LIGHT. MEM WILL APPROACH 10 KTS...BUT FALL AGAIN
TOWARD 00Z THURSDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 272113
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
313 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN ANOTHER PLEASANT
MIDWINTER DAY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...HIGHS MAY CLIMB
ANOTHER DEGREE...BUT I DON`T EXPECT TO SEE ANY LOCATION MAKING IT
TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW AND THURSDAY SHOULD
BE WARMER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOW 60S.

A STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH IN THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
WILL DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
THURSDAY. WESTERN AREAS MAY SEE THEIR WARMEST TEMPERATURES BEFORE
NOON...WITH NORTHERLY WIND USHERING IN COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
KEEP ANY RAINFALL IN THE LIQUID FORM. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED...SO RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL BE IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN IN WEST
TENNESSEE...AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI...MAINLY NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE
LINE AND TENNESSEE RIVER AFTER NOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN RESULTING IN COOLER BUT DRY CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST 24
HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...FEATURING LOWS
NEAR FREEZING AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES.
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. IF MOISTURE ARRIVES EARLY
ENOUGH SATURDAY A FEW FLURRIES OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
EAST ARKANSAS...BUT ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
QUICKLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ENDING EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ONE QUARTER
TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD EARLY PREDICTION.
HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S WITH MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MARK THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IS
TYPICAL...THE COLDER AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE
MOISTURE HAS EXITED STAGE EAST.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CAN/T
RULE OUT KMKL BRIEFLY DROPPING TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BACK
EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE NEARBY. N WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

KRM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 272054
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
254 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

COLD AIR STRATUS DECK HOLDING FIRM ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE MID-STATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS IS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 30S...WHERE THE FOLKS IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
HAVE SEEN LOTS OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 40S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THESE CLOUDS HANG ON
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. CURRENTLY
SHOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE PLATEAU
BUT THERE MIGHT BE A WRENCH THROWN INTO THOSE PLANS IF THE CLOUDS
HANG ON MUCH PAST MIDNIGHT.

OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS STILL LOOKING LIKE THURSDAY...WITH A
WARMUP OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MORNING ON THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.  QPFS ARE SEVERELY LACKING AT ANY POINT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY...SO I WOULD EXPECT LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
OF RAIN ANYWHERE THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.

WE WILL COOL OFF A BIT BEHIND THE THURSDAY`S FRONT...BUT THE AIRMASS
THAT COMES DOWN OUT OF CANADA JUST ISN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.  IT
WILL HOWEVER DRY THINGS OUT WELL FOR US...WHICH SHOULD HELP GIVE US
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
CURRENT GUIDANCE.

THE FOCUS IS THEN ON THE SYSTEM DUE IN HERE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  A LITTLE BONE OF CONTENTION IS WITH THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR
SATURDAY.  UNDER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A SWLY 850MB JET STARTING TO
KICK UP...I`M GOING TO PUSH SATURDAY`S HIGHS 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE
CONSALL...AND IT PROBABLY WILL EVEN PUSH 50 DEGREES THAT AFTERNOON.
ALL OF IT DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS CLOUDS
PUSH INTO THE MID-STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MORE CLOUDS EQUALS
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS.

I TALKED YESTERDAY ABOUT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WE CAN EXPECT AT
THE ONSET OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE LATEST RUNS OF BOTH
THE GFS AND EURO HAVE PUSHED THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WAY OFF TO
THE NORTH...COMPARED TO WHERE IT STARTED OUT...WELL SOUTH OF US.
FOR THIS REASON...I HAVE BUMPED POPS AND INCREASED THE DEW POINT
TREND INTO SUNDAY.  EVEN WITH THIS INCREASE...SURFACE INSTABILITY
WILL BE LACKING.  FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH JUST RAIN SUNDAY WITH
RAIN TOTALS IN THE 0.25-0.75 INCH RANGE.  I HAVE HOWEVER NOTICED A
CONVERGENT LLJ SUNDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING AS LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE MIGHT HELP IN GETTING SOME MENTION OF THUNDER INTO
FUTURE FORECASTS.

MOISTURE PULLS OUT OF MIDDLE TN VERY QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AS
IS USUALLY THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR...COLD AIR COULD CATCH THE
PRECIP BEFORE IT CLEARS THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION OF SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT.

STILL NOT IMPRESSED WITH THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.  WE
SHOULD SEE A COOL OFF MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT NOTHING TOO
EXCESSIVELY COLD...WITH TUESDAY MORNING STILL LOOKING LIKE THE
COLDEST MORNING NEXT WEEK.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAINLY MVFR CIGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A CLOUD DECK MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. WINDS SHOULD BE NORTHERLY AND
LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA. KCSV MAY SEE IFR CIGS
ON AND OFF THIS AFTERNOON...AND KBNA AND KCSV MAY IMPROVE TO VFR
BRIEFLY AS WELL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE IN LATER THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES EASTWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      27  49  38  54 /   0   0  20  30
CLARKSVILLE    26  48  39  53 /   0   0  20  30
CROSSVILLE     21  43  34  49 /   0   0  10  40
COLUMBIA       26  50  38  55 /   0   0  20  30
LAWRENCEBURG   28  50  38  55 /   0   0  10  30
WAVERLY        28  50  41  55 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27





000
FXUS64 KOHX 272054
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
254 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

COLD AIR STRATUS DECK HOLDING FIRM ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE MID-STATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS IS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 30S...WHERE THE FOLKS IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
HAVE SEEN LOTS OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 40S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THESE CLOUDS HANG ON
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. CURRENTLY
SHOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE PLATEAU
BUT THERE MIGHT BE A WRENCH THROWN INTO THOSE PLANS IF THE CLOUDS
HANG ON MUCH PAST MIDNIGHT.

OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS STILL LOOKING LIKE THURSDAY...WITH A
WARMUP OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MORNING ON THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.  QPFS ARE SEVERELY LACKING AT ANY POINT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY...SO I WOULD EXPECT LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
OF RAIN ANYWHERE THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.

WE WILL COOL OFF A BIT BEHIND THE THURSDAY`S FRONT...BUT THE AIRMASS
THAT COMES DOWN OUT OF CANADA JUST ISN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.  IT
WILL HOWEVER DRY THINGS OUT WELL FOR US...WHICH SHOULD HELP GIVE US
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
CURRENT GUIDANCE.

THE FOCUS IS THEN ON THE SYSTEM DUE IN HERE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  A LITTLE BONE OF CONTENTION IS WITH THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR
SATURDAY.  UNDER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A SWLY 850MB JET STARTING TO
KICK UP...I`M GOING TO PUSH SATURDAY`S HIGHS 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE
CONSALL...AND IT PROBABLY WILL EVEN PUSH 50 DEGREES THAT AFTERNOON.
ALL OF IT DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS CLOUDS
PUSH INTO THE MID-STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MORE CLOUDS EQUALS
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS.

I TALKED YESTERDAY ABOUT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WE CAN EXPECT AT
THE ONSET OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE LATEST RUNS OF BOTH
THE GFS AND EURO HAVE PUSHED THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WAY OFF TO
THE NORTH...COMPARED TO WHERE IT STARTED OUT...WELL SOUTH OF US.
FOR THIS REASON...I HAVE BUMPED POPS AND INCREASED THE DEW POINT
TREND INTO SUNDAY.  EVEN WITH THIS INCREASE...SURFACE INSTABILITY
WILL BE LACKING.  FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH JUST RAIN SUNDAY WITH
RAIN TOTALS IN THE 0.25-0.75 INCH RANGE.  I HAVE HOWEVER NOTICED A
CONVERGENT LLJ SUNDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING AS LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE MIGHT HELP IN GETTING SOME MENTION OF THUNDER INTO
FUTURE FORECASTS.

MOISTURE PULLS OUT OF MIDDLE TN VERY QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AS
IS USUALLY THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR...COLD AIR COULD CATCH THE
PRECIP BEFORE IT CLEARS THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION OF SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT.

STILL NOT IMPRESSED WITH THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.  WE
SHOULD SEE A COOL OFF MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT NOTHING TOO
EXCESSIVELY COLD...WITH TUESDAY MORNING STILL LOOKING LIKE THE
COLDEST MORNING NEXT WEEK.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAINLY MVFR CIGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A CLOUD DECK MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. WINDS SHOULD BE NORTHERLY AND
LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA. KCSV MAY SEE IFR CIGS
ON AND OFF THIS AFTERNOON...AND KBNA AND KCSV MAY IMPROVE TO VFR
BRIEFLY AS WELL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE IN LATER THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES EASTWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      27  49  38  54 /   0   0  20  30
CLARKSVILLE    26  48  39  53 /   0   0  20  30
CROSSVILLE     21  43  34  49 /   0   0  10  40
COLUMBIA       26  50  38  55 /   0   0  20  30
LAWRENCEBURG   28  50  38  55 /   0   0  10  30
WAVERLY        28  50  41  55 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27





000
FXUS64 KOHX 272054
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
254 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

COLD AIR STRATUS DECK HOLDING FIRM ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE MID-STATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS IS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 30S...WHERE THE FOLKS IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
HAVE SEEN LOTS OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 40S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THESE CLOUDS HANG ON
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. CURRENTLY
SHOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE PLATEAU
BUT THERE MIGHT BE A WRENCH THROWN INTO THOSE PLANS IF THE CLOUDS
HANG ON MUCH PAST MIDNIGHT.

OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS STILL LOOKING LIKE THURSDAY...WITH A
WARMUP OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MORNING ON THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.  QPFS ARE SEVERELY LACKING AT ANY POINT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY...SO I WOULD EXPECT LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
OF RAIN ANYWHERE THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.

WE WILL COOL OFF A BIT BEHIND THE THURSDAY`S FRONT...BUT THE AIRMASS
THAT COMES DOWN OUT OF CANADA JUST ISN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.  IT
WILL HOWEVER DRY THINGS OUT WELL FOR US...WHICH SHOULD HELP GIVE US
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
CURRENT GUIDANCE.

THE FOCUS IS THEN ON THE SYSTEM DUE IN HERE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  A LITTLE BONE OF CONTENTION IS WITH THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR
SATURDAY.  UNDER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A SWLY 850MB JET STARTING TO
KICK UP...I`M GOING TO PUSH SATURDAY`S HIGHS 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE
CONSALL...AND IT PROBABLY WILL EVEN PUSH 50 DEGREES THAT AFTERNOON.
ALL OF IT DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS CLOUDS
PUSH INTO THE MID-STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MORE CLOUDS EQUALS
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS.

I TALKED YESTERDAY ABOUT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WE CAN EXPECT AT
THE ONSET OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE LATEST RUNS OF BOTH
THE GFS AND EURO HAVE PUSHED THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WAY OFF TO
THE NORTH...COMPARED TO WHERE IT STARTED OUT...WELL SOUTH OF US.
FOR THIS REASON...I HAVE BUMPED POPS AND INCREASED THE DEW POINT
TREND INTO SUNDAY.  EVEN WITH THIS INCREASE...SURFACE INSTABILITY
WILL BE LACKING.  FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH JUST RAIN SUNDAY WITH
RAIN TOTALS IN THE 0.25-0.75 INCH RANGE.  I HAVE HOWEVER NOTICED A
CONVERGENT LLJ SUNDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING AS LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE MIGHT HELP IN GETTING SOME MENTION OF THUNDER INTO
FUTURE FORECASTS.

MOISTURE PULLS OUT OF MIDDLE TN VERY QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AS
IS USUALLY THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR...COLD AIR COULD CATCH THE
PRECIP BEFORE IT CLEARS THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION OF SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT.

STILL NOT IMPRESSED WITH THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.  WE
SHOULD SEE A COOL OFF MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT NOTHING TOO
EXCESSIVELY COLD...WITH TUESDAY MORNING STILL LOOKING LIKE THE
COLDEST MORNING NEXT WEEK.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAINLY MVFR CIGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A CLOUD DECK MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. WINDS SHOULD BE NORTHERLY AND
LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA. KCSV MAY SEE IFR CIGS
ON AND OFF THIS AFTERNOON...AND KBNA AND KCSV MAY IMPROVE TO VFR
BRIEFLY AS WELL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE IN LATER THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES EASTWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      27  49  38  54 /   0   0  20  30
CLARKSVILLE    26  48  39  53 /   0   0  20  30
CROSSVILLE     21  43  34  49 /   0   0  10  40
COLUMBIA       26  50  38  55 /   0   0  20  30
LAWRENCEBURG   28  50  38  55 /   0   0  10  30
WAVERLY        28  50  41  55 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27





000
FXUS64 KOHX 272054
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
254 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

COLD AIR STRATUS DECK HOLDING FIRM ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE MID-STATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS IS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 30S...WHERE THE FOLKS IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
HAVE SEEN LOTS OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 40S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THESE CLOUDS HANG ON
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. CURRENTLY
SHOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE PLATEAU
BUT THERE MIGHT BE A WRENCH THROWN INTO THOSE PLANS IF THE CLOUDS
HANG ON MUCH PAST MIDNIGHT.

OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS STILL LOOKING LIKE THURSDAY...WITH A
WARMUP OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MORNING ON THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.  QPFS ARE SEVERELY LACKING AT ANY POINT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY...SO I WOULD EXPECT LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
OF RAIN ANYWHERE THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.

WE WILL COOL OFF A BIT BEHIND THE THURSDAY`S FRONT...BUT THE AIRMASS
THAT COMES DOWN OUT OF CANADA JUST ISN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.  IT
WILL HOWEVER DRY THINGS OUT WELL FOR US...WHICH SHOULD HELP GIVE US
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
CURRENT GUIDANCE.

THE FOCUS IS THEN ON THE SYSTEM DUE IN HERE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  A LITTLE BONE OF CONTENTION IS WITH THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR
SATURDAY.  UNDER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A SWLY 850MB JET STARTING TO
KICK UP...I`M GOING TO PUSH SATURDAY`S HIGHS 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE
CONSALL...AND IT PROBABLY WILL EVEN PUSH 50 DEGREES THAT AFTERNOON.
ALL OF IT DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS CLOUDS
PUSH INTO THE MID-STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MORE CLOUDS EQUALS
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS.

I TALKED YESTERDAY ABOUT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WE CAN EXPECT AT
THE ONSET OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE LATEST RUNS OF BOTH
THE GFS AND EURO HAVE PUSHED THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WAY OFF TO
THE NORTH...COMPARED TO WHERE IT STARTED OUT...WELL SOUTH OF US.
FOR THIS REASON...I HAVE BUMPED POPS AND INCREASED THE DEW POINT
TREND INTO SUNDAY.  EVEN WITH THIS INCREASE...SURFACE INSTABILITY
WILL BE LACKING.  FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH JUST RAIN SUNDAY WITH
RAIN TOTALS IN THE 0.25-0.75 INCH RANGE.  I HAVE HOWEVER NOTICED A
CONVERGENT LLJ SUNDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING AS LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE MIGHT HELP IN GETTING SOME MENTION OF THUNDER INTO
FUTURE FORECASTS.

MOISTURE PULLS OUT OF MIDDLE TN VERY QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AS
IS USUALLY THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR...COLD AIR COULD CATCH THE
PRECIP BEFORE IT CLEARS THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION OF SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT.

STILL NOT IMPRESSED WITH THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.  WE
SHOULD SEE A COOL OFF MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT NOTHING TOO
EXCESSIVELY COLD...WITH TUESDAY MORNING STILL LOOKING LIKE THE
COLDEST MORNING NEXT WEEK.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAINLY MVFR CIGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A CLOUD DECK MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. WINDS SHOULD BE NORTHERLY AND
LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA. KCSV MAY SEE IFR CIGS
ON AND OFF THIS AFTERNOON...AND KBNA AND KCSV MAY IMPROVE TO VFR
BRIEFLY AS WELL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE IN LATER THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES EASTWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      27  49  38  54 /   0   0  20  30
CLARKSVILLE    26  48  39  53 /   0   0  20  30
CROSSVILLE     21  43  34  49 /   0   0  10  40
COLUMBIA       26  50  38  55 /   0   0  20  30
LAWRENCEBURG   28  50  38  55 /   0   0  10  30
WAVERLY        28  50  41  55 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27





000
FXUS64 KMRX 272019
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
319 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEEP UPPER LOW
THAT IS NOW MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEAST STATES HAS NOW
WEAKENED TO THE POINT THAT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ABOUT ENDED...BUT THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE GROUND IN THE DRYING AIR MASS
WAS STILL PRODUCING A FEW FLURRIES. THESE SHOULD COME TO AN END
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS TRYING TO HANG ONTO THE LOW CLOUDS INTO
THE EVENING WITH UPPER FLOW BRINGING CLOUDS INTO REGION FROM THE
NW. COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE MOVING
DOWN OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LOWS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SW VA EVEN FALLING INTO THE TEENS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MOSTLY 40S. HIGHS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE COLDER MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 30S. WILL CANCEL
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE SMOKIES AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK TROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS RAIN IN MOST LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY
AND THEN MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AS
PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING....BUT NO WIDESPREAD IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND SOME CLEARING BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER DEEPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND A COLDER AIR MASS IN ITS
WAKE. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY MORNING...INCREASING IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY. LATER ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND CHANGING ANY LINGERING
MOISTURE/RAIN SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW...OR AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY
MONDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS IN EAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ABOVE 2500-3000 FT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND PROMOTE FAIR WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             27  48  32  54 /   0   0  10  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  21  44  28  50 /   0   0  10  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       23  43  30  49 /   0   0  10  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              16  39  24  46 /  10   0  10  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD/AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 272019
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
319 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEEP UPPER LOW
THAT IS NOW MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEAST STATES HAS NOW
WEAKENED TO THE POINT THAT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ABOUT ENDED...BUT THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE GROUND IN THE DRYING AIR MASS
WAS STILL PRODUCING A FEW FLURRIES. THESE SHOULD COME TO AN END
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS TRYING TO HANG ONTO THE LOW CLOUDS INTO
THE EVENING WITH UPPER FLOW BRINGING CLOUDS INTO REGION FROM THE
NW. COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE MOVING
DOWN OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LOWS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SW VA EVEN FALLING INTO THE TEENS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MOSTLY 40S. HIGHS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE COLDER MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 30S. WILL CANCEL
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE SMOKIES AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK TROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS RAIN IN MOST LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY
AND THEN MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AS
PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING....BUT NO WIDESPREAD IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND SOME CLEARING BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER DEEPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND A COLDER AIR MASS IN ITS
WAKE. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY MORNING...INCREASING IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY. LATER ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND CHANGING ANY LINGERING
MOISTURE/RAIN SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW...OR AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY
MONDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS IN EAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ABOVE 2500-3000 FT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND PROMOTE FAIR WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             27  48  32  54 /   0   0  10  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  21  44  28  50 /   0   0  10  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       23  43  30  49 /   0   0  10  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              16  39  24  46 /  10   0  10  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD/AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 272019
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
319 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEEP UPPER LOW
THAT IS NOW MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEAST STATES HAS NOW
WEAKENED TO THE POINT THAT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ABOUT ENDED...BUT THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE GROUND IN THE DRYING AIR MASS
WAS STILL PRODUCING A FEW FLURRIES. THESE SHOULD COME TO AN END
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS TRYING TO HANG ONTO THE LOW CLOUDS INTO
THE EVENING WITH UPPER FLOW BRINGING CLOUDS INTO REGION FROM THE
NW. COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE MOVING
DOWN OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LOWS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SW VA EVEN FALLING INTO THE TEENS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MOSTLY 40S. HIGHS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE COLDER MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 30S. WILL CANCEL
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE SMOKIES AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK TROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS RAIN IN MOST LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY
AND THEN MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AS
PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING....BUT NO WIDESPREAD IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND SOME CLEARING BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER DEEPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND A COLDER AIR MASS IN ITS
WAKE. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY MORNING...INCREASING IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY. LATER ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND CHANGING ANY LINGERING
MOISTURE/RAIN SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW...OR AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY
MONDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS IN EAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ABOVE 2500-3000 FT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND PROMOTE FAIR WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             27  48  32  54 /   0   0  10  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  21  44  28  50 /   0   0  10  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       23  43  30  49 /   0   0  10  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              16  39  24  46 /  10   0  10  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD/AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 272019
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
319 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEEP UPPER LOW
THAT IS NOW MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEAST STATES HAS NOW
WEAKENED TO THE POINT THAT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ABOUT ENDED...BUT THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE GROUND IN THE DRYING AIR MASS
WAS STILL PRODUCING A FEW FLURRIES. THESE SHOULD COME TO AN END
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS TRYING TO HANG ONTO THE LOW CLOUDS INTO
THE EVENING WITH UPPER FLOW BRINGING CLOUDS INTO REGION FROM THE
NW. COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE MOVING
DOWN OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LOWS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SW VA EVEN FALLING INTO THE TEENS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MOSTLY 40S. HIGHS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE COLDER MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 30S. WILL CANCEL
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE SMOKIES AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK TROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS RAIN IN MOST LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY
AND THEN MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AS
PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING....BUT NO WIDESPREAD IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND SOME CLEARING BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER DEEPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND A COLDER AIR MASS IN ITS
WAKE. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY MORNING...INCREASING IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY. LATER ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND CHANGING ANY LINGERING
MOISTURE/RAIN SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW...OR AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY
MONDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS IN EAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ABOVE 2500-3000 FT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND PROMOTE FAIR WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             27  48  32  54 /   0   0  10  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  21  44  28  50 /   0   0  10  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       23  43  30  49 /   0   0  10  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              16  39  24  46 /  10   0  10  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD/AMP




000
FXUS64 KMEG 271814
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1214 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

BUMPED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT WARMING
TRENDS. SOME OF THE WARMEST LOCATION IN THE MIDSOUTH MAY CREEP
INTO THE LOW 60S THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE 50S. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

GENERALLY SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE MIDSOUTH...WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING THE COUNTIES NEAR THE LOWER TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE A QUASI-STATIONARY BAND OF STRATOCU IS PERSISTING.
THERE IS A LARGE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR...WITH MID 20S IN
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO THE MID 40S IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
WESTERLY WINDS WERE PROVIDING THE WARMER MIXING ACROSS THE DELTA.

THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WEST AND THE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THUS THE AREA WILL REMAIN STABLE AND DRY. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL TURN A BIT MORE NORTHERLY TODAY ALLOWING 925MB MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL SEE
SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S UNDER
THE CLOUD COVER...WITH 50S ELSEWHERE. TONIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY AND
MILD...BEFORE A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY COOLS THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND. LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY WITH THE NORTH HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOMETHING MEASURABLE. HIGHS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RUN FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...DROPPING TO A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP
TROUGH GETTING CARVED OUT OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS THIS
PERIOD...WITH A PERIOD OF PHASING BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET. A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
MIDSOUTH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER SATURDAY...WITH RAIN TO FOLLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS WETTER WITH EACH MODEL RUN...SO
BUMPED UP RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE EVENT. ONLY THE
EXCEPTION...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING SUBFREEZING 925MB TEMPERATURES
GETTING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE RAIN SHIELD SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO FORM OVER THE NORTH...THOUGH PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE WANING DOWN AT THIS POINT. THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER AND WARMER.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND COOL AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS ALOFT.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CAN/T
RULE OUT KMKL BRIEFLY DROPPING TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BACK
EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE NEARBY. N WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

KRM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 271814
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1214 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

BUMPED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT WARMING
TRENDS. SOME OF THE WARMEST LOCATION IN THE MIDSOUTH MAY CREEP
INTO THE LOW 60S THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE 50S. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

GENERALLY SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE MIDSOUTH...WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING THE COUNTIES NEAR THE LOWER TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE A QUASI-STATIONARY BAND OF STRATOCU IS PERSISTING.
THERE IS A LARGE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR...WITH MID 20S IN
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO THE MID 40S IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
WESTERLY WINDS WERE PROVIDING THE WARMER MIXING ACROSS THE DELTA.

THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WEST AND THE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THUS THE AREA WILL REMAIN STABLE AND DRY. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL TURN A BIT MORE NORTHERLY TODAY ALLOWING 925MB MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL SEE
SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S UNDER
THE CLOUD COVER...WITH 50S ELSEWHERE. TONIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY AND
MILD...BEFORE A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY COOLS THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND. LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY WITH THE NORTH HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOMETHING MEASURABLE. HIGHS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RUN FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...DROPPING TO A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP
TROUGH GETTING CARVED OUT OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS THIS
PERIOD...WITH A PERIOD OF PHASING BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET. A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
MIDSOUTH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER SATURDAY...WITH RAIN TO FOLLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS WETTER WITH EACH MODEL RUN...SO
BUMPED UP RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE EVENT. ONLY THE
EXCEPTION...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING SUBFREEZING 925MB TEMPERATURES
GETTING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE RAIN SHIELD SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO FORM OVER THE NORTH...THOUGH PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE WANING DOWN AT THIS POINT. THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER AND WARMER.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND COOL AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS ALOFT.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CAN/T
RULE OUT KMKL BRIEFLY DROPPING TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BACK
EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE NEARBY. N WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

KRM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 271814
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1214 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

BUMPED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT WARMING
TRENDS. SOME OF THE WARMEST LOCATION IN THE MIDSOUTH MAY CREEP
INTO THE LOW 60S THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE 50S. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

GENERALLY SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE MIDSOUTH...WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING THE COUNTIES NEAR THE LOWER TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE A QUASI-STATIONARY BAND OF STRATOCU IS PERSISTING.
THERE IS A LARGE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR...WITH MID 20S IN
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO THE MID 40S IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
WESTERLY WINDS WERE PROVIDING THE WARMER MIXING ACROSS THE DELTA.

THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WEST AND THE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THUS THE AREA WILL REMAIN STABLE AND DRY. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL TURN A BIT MORE NORTHERLY TODAY ALLOWING 925MB MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL SEE
SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S UNDER
THE CLOUD COVER...WITH 50S ELSEWHERE. TONIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY AND
MILD...BEFORE A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY COOLS THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND. LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY WITH THE NORTH HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOMETHING MEASURABLE. HIGHS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RUN FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...DROPPING TO A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP
TROUGH GETTING CARVED OUT OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS THIS
PERIOD...WITH A PERIOD OF PHASING BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET. A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
MIDSOUTH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER SATURDAY...WITH RAIN TO FOLLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS WETTER WITH EACH MODEL RUN...SO
BUMPED UP RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE EVENT. ONLY THE
EXCEPTION...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING SUBFREEZING 925MB TEMPERATURES
GETTING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE RAIN SHIELD SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO FORM OVER THE NORTH...THOUGH PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE WANING DOWN AT THIS POINT. THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER AND WARMER.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND COOL AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS ALOFT.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CAN/T
RULE OUT KMKL BRIEFLY DROPPING TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BACK
EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE NEARBY. N WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

KRM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 271814
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1214 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

BUMPED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT WARMING
TRENDS. SOME OF THE WARMEST LOCATION IN THE MIDSOUTH MAY CREEP
INTO THE LOW 60S THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE 50S. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

GENERALLY SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE MIDSOUTH...WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING THE COUNTIES NEAR THE LOWER TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE A QUASI-STATIONARY BAND OF STRATOCU IS PERSISTING.
THERE IS A LARGE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR...WITH MID 20S IN
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO THE MID 40S IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
WESTERLY WINDS WERE PROVIDING THE WARMER MIXING ACROSS THE DELTA.

THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WEST AND THE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THUS THE AREA WILL REMAIN STABLE AND DRY. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL TURN A BIT MORE NORTHERLY TODAY ALLOWING 925MB MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL SEE
SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S UNDER
THE CLOUD COVER...WITH 50S ELSEWHERE. TONIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY AND
MILD...BEFORE A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY COOLS THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND. LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY WITH THE NORTH HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOMETHING MEASURABLE. HIGHS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RUN FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...DROPPING TO A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP
TROUGH GETTING CARVED OUT OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS THIS
PERIOD...WITH A PERIOD OF PHASING BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET. A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
MIDSOUTH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER SATURDAY...WITH RAIN TO FOLLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS WETTER WITH EACH MODEL RUN...SO
BUMPED UP RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE EVENT. ONLY THE
EXCEPTION...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING SUBFREEZING 925MB TEMPERATURES
GETTING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE RAIN SHIELD SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO FORM OVER THE NORTH...THOUGH PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE WANING DOWN AT THIS POINT. THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER AND WARMER.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND COOL AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS ALOFT.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CAN/T
RULE OUT KMKL BRIEFLY DROPPING TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BACK
EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE NEARBY. N WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

KRM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 271747
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1247 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER EAST TN KEEPING CEILINGS NEAR
OR BELOW VFR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A SLOW IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS ALL LOCATIONS BY
TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS MAY REFORM LATER TONIGHT IN NE TN BUT THEY
SHOULD BE STILL VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD



000
FXUS64 KMRX 271747
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1247 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER EAST TN KEEPING CEILINGS NEAR
OR BELOW VFR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A SLOW IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS ALL LOCATIONS BY
TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS MAY REFORM LATER TONIGHT IN NE TN BUT THEY
SHOULD BE STILL VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD



000
FXUS64 KMRX 271747
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1247 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER EAST TN KEEPING CEILINGS NEAR
OR BELOW VFR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A SLOW IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS ALL LOCATIONS BY
TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS MAY REFORM LATER TONIGHT IN NE TN BUT THEY
SHOULD BE STILL VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD



000
FXUS64 KMRX 271747
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1247 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER EAST TN KEEPING CEILINGS NEAR
OR BELOW VFR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A SLOW IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS ALL LOCATIONS BY
TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS MAY REFORM LATER TONIGHT IN NE TN BUT THEY
SHOULD BE STILL VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD



000
FXUS64 KOHX 271743
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1143 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...

18Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY MVFR CIGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A CLOUD DECK MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. WINDS SHOULD BE NORTHERLY AND
LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA. KCSV MAY SEE IFR CIGS
ON AND OFF THIS AFTERNOON...AND KBNA AND KCSV MAY IMPROVE TO VFR
BRIEFLY AS WELL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE IN LATER THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES EASTWARD.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KOHX 271743
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1143 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...

18Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY MVFR CIGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A CLOUD DECK MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. WINDS SHOULD BE NORTHERLY AND
LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA. KCSV MAY SEE IFR CIGS
ON AND OFF THIS AFTERNOON...AND KBNA AND KCSV MAY IMPROVE TO VFR
BRIEFLY AS WELL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE IN LATER THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES EASTWARD.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KMRX 271710
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1210 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ENDED FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER NEW NAM SHOWING HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
NW WIND FETCH STILL OVER THE HIGHER SMOKY MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3000 FEET IN THE PARK AND CONTINUED CHANCE OF SNOW HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THAT AREA UNTIL 600 PM BUT
ALLOWED IT TO EXPIRE ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HANGING IN ACROSS
EAST TN BUT STARTING TO THIN ON THE NORTHERN...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
EDGES. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTH BUT
UPPER 20S TO 30S ELSEHERE. CURRENT HIGHS LOOK GOOD. ADJUSTED POPS
TO KEEP A CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND KEEP FLURRIES MENTIONED. UPDATE SENT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD



000
FXUS64 KMRX 271710
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1210 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ENDED FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER NEW NAM SHOWING HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
NW WIND FETCH STILL OVER THE HIGHER SMOKY MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3000 FEET IN THE PARK AND CONTINUED CHANCE OF SNOW HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THAT AREA UNTIL 600 PM BUT
ALLOWED IT TO EXPIRE ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HANGING IN ACROSS
EAST TN BUT STARTING TO THIN ON THE NORTHERN...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
EDGES. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTH BUT
UPPER 20S TO 30S ELSEHERE. CURRENT HIGHS LOOK GOOD. ADJUSTED POPS
TO KEEP A CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND KEEP FLURRIES MENTIONED. UPDATE SENT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




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