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000
FXUS64 KMEG 070537
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1137 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO
BELOW FREEZING ALREADY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. HAVE LOWERED
OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES TO COMPENSATE. THE REMAINING FORECAST
TONIGHT IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND FORECAST REASONING REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OVER
EASTERN TX WHICH IS INDIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH NEGLIGIBLE IMPACTS TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MID-SOUTH WHICH WILL DROP TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY ON
MONDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
FLOW EVOLUTION IS DEPICTED WITH NUMEROUS INTERACTING
FEATURES. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE BUT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WILL BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP
WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO THE LARGER
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. MUCH OF THIS PRECIP WILL
FALL AS RAIN...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST AND MIDDLE TN
MONDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS PRECIP-FREE WITH A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND SHOWN IN TEMPERATURES.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AT 8 KTS
OR GREATER WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD LOWER TO
AROUND 8 KTS AND VEER TO THE WEST SUNDAY EVENING.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 070537
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1137 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO
BELOW FREEZING ALREADY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. HAVE LOWERED
OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES TO COMPENSATE. THE REMAINING FORECAST
TONIGHT IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND FORECAST REASONING REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OVER
EASTERN TX WHICH IS INDIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH NEGLIGIBLE IMPACTS TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MID-SOUTH WHICH WILL DROP TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY ON
MONDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
FLOW EVOLUTION IS DEPICTED WITH NUMEROUS INTERACTING
FEATURES. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE BUT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WILL BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP
WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO THE LARGER
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. MUCH OF THIS PRECIP WILL
FALL AS RAIN...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST AND MIDDLE TN
MONDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS PRECIP-FREE WITH A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND SHOWN IN TEMPERATURES.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AT 8 KTS
OR GREATER WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD LOWER TO
AROUND 8 KTS AND VEER TO THE WEST SUNDAY EVENING.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 070537
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1137 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO
BELOW FREEZING ALREADY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. HAVE LOWERED
OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES TO COMPENSATE. THE REMAINING FORECAST
TONIGHT IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND FORECAST REASONING REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OVER
EASTERN TX WHICH IS INDIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH NEGLIGIBLE IMPACTS TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MID-SOUTH WHICH WILL DROP TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY ON
MONDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
FLOW EVOLUTION IS DEPICTED WITH NUMEROUS INTERACTING
FEATURES. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE BUT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WILL BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP
WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO THE LARGER
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. MUCH OF THIS PRECIP WILL
FALL AS RAIN...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST AND MIDDLE TN
MONDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS PRECIP-FREE WITH A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND SHOWN IN TEMPERATURES.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AT 8 KTS
OR GREATER WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD LOWER TO
AROUND 8 KTS AND VEER TO THE WEST SUNDAY EVENING.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMRX 070523 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1223 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOHX 070523
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1123 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST. HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK...BUT ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT TO MATCH CURRENT OBS AND
TRENDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FLIGHT RULES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT BUT WILL PICK UP AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. SW GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS
ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR KCKV. BY 00Z MONDAY...HIGH CLOUDS START
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE STATE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION........UNGER
SHORT TERM......06/BARNWELL




000
FXUS64 KOHX 070523
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1123 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST. HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK...BUT ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT TO MATCH CURRENT OBS AND
TRENDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FLIGHT RULES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT BUT WILL PICK UP AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. SW GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS
ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR KCKV. BY 00Z MONDAY...HIGH CLOUDS START
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE STATE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION........UNGER
SHORT TERM......06/BARNWELL



000
FXUS64 KMRX 070523 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1223 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 070523 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1223 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP



000
FXUS64 KMEG 070402
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1002 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO
BELOW FREEZING ALREADY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. HAVE LOWERED
OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES TO COMPENSATE. THE REMAINING FORECAST
TONIGHT IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

UPDATE...

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND FORECAST REASONING REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OVER
EASTERN TX WHICH IS INDIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH NEGLIGIBLE IMPACTS TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MID-SOUTH WHICH WILL DROP TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY ON
MONDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
FLOW EVOLUTION IS DEPICTED WITH NUMEROUS INTERACTING
FEATURES. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE BUT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WILL BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP
WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO THE LARGER
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. MUCH OF THIS PRECIP WILL
FALL AS RAIN...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST AND MIDDLE TN
MONDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS PRECIP-FREE WITH A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND SHOWN IN TEMPERATURES.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AT 8 KTS
OR GREATER WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS BY AFTERNOON.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 070310
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1010 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 30S AND WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE 20S BY
MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MORNING. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN TN VALLEY SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. NO CHANGES TO
CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 070310
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1010 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 30S AND WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE 20S BY
MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MORNING. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN TN VALLEY SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. NO CHANGES TO
CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 070310
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1010 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 30S AND WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE 20S BY
MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MORNING. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN TN VALLEY SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. NO CHANGES TO
CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD



000
FXUS64 KOHX 070304
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
904 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST. HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK...BUT ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT TO MATCH CURRENT OBS AND
TRENDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FLIGHT RULES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT BUT WILL PICK UP AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. SW GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS
ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR KCKV.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........UNGER
LONG TERM..................BARNWELL




000
FXUS64 KOHX 070304
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
904 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST. HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK...BUT ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT TO MATCH CURRENT OBS AND
TRENDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FLIGHT RULES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT BUT WILL PICK UP AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. SW GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS
ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR KCKV.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........UNGER
LONG TERM..................BARNWELL



000
FXUS64 KOHX 070304
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
904 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST. HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK...BUT ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT TO MATCH CURRENT OBS AND
TRENDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FLIGHT RULES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT BUT WILL PICK UP AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. SW GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS
ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR KCKV.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........UNGER
LONG TERM..................BARNWELL



000
FXUS64 KOHX 070304
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
904 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST. HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK...BUT ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT TO MATCH CURRENT OBS AND
TRENDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FLIGHT RULES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT BUT WILL PICK UP AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. SW GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS
ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR KCKV.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........UNGER
LONG TERM..................BARNWELL



000
FXUS64 KOHX 070304
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
904 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST. HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK...BUT ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT TO MATCH CURRENT OBS AND
TRENDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FLIGHT RULES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT BUT WILL PICK UP AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. SW GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS
ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR KCKV.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........UNGER
LONG TERM..................BARNWELL



000
FXUS64 KMEG 070015
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
615 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND FORECAST REASONING REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OVER
EASTERN TX WHICH IS INDIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH NEGLIBLE IMPACTS TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MID-SOUTH WHICH WILL DROP TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY ON
MONDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
FLOW EVOLUTION IS DEPICTED WITH NUMEROUS INTERACTING
FEATURES. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE BUT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WILL BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP
WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO THE LARGER
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. MUCH OF THIS PRECIP WILL
FALL AS RAIN...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST AND MIDDLE TN
MONDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS PRECIP-FREE WITH A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND SHOWN IN TEMPERATURES.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AT 8 KTS
OR GREATER WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS BY AFTERNOON.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 070015
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
615 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND FORECAST REASONING REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OVER
EASTERN TX WHICH IS INDIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH NEGLIBLE IMPACTS TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MID-SOUTH WHICH WILL DROP TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY ON
MONDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
FLOW EVOLUTION IS DEPICTED WITH NUMEROUS INTERACTING
FEATURES. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE BUT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WILL BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP
WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO THE LARGER
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. MUCH OF THIS PRECIP WILL
FALL AS RAIN...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST AND MIDDLE TN
MONDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS PRECIP-FREE WITH A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND SHOWN IN TEMPERATURES.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AT 8 KTS
OR GREATER WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS BY AFTERNOON.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 070015
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
615 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND FORECAST REASONING REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OVER
EASTERN TX WHICH IS INDIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH NEGLIBLE IMPACTS TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MID-SOUTH WHICH WILL DROP TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY ON
MONDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
FLOW EVOLUTION IS DEPICTED WITH NUMEROUS INTERACTING
FEATURES. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE BUT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WILL BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP
WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO THE LARGER
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. MUCH OF THIS PRECIP WILL
FALL AS RAIN...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST AND MIDDLE TN
MONDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS PRECIP-FREE WITH A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND SHOWN IN TEMPERATURES.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AT 8 KTS
OR GREATER WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS BY AFTERNOON.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 070015
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
615 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND FORECAST REASONING REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OVER
EASTERN TX WHICH IS INDIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH NEGLIBLE IMPACTS TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MID-SOUTH WHICH WILL DROP TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY ON
MONDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
FLOW EVOLUTION IS DEPICTED WITH NUMEROUS INTERACTING
FEATURES. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE BUT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WILL BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP
WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO THE LARGER
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. MUCH OF THIS PRECIP WILL
FALL AS RAIN...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST AND MIDDLE TN
MONDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS PRECIP-FREE WITH A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND SHOWN IN TEMPERATURES.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AT 8 KTS
OR GREATER WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS BY AFTERNOON.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 070015
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
615 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND FORECAST REASONING REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OVER
EASTERN TX WHICH IS INDIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH NEGLIBLE IMPACTS TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MID-SOUTH WHICH WILL DROP TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY ON
MONDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
FLOW EVOLUTION IS DEPICTED WITH NUMEROUS INTERACTING
FEATURES. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE BUT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WILL BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP
WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO THE LARGER
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. MUCH OF THIS PRECIP WILL
FALL AS RAIN...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST AND MIDDLE TN
MONDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS PRECIP-FREE WITH A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND SHOWN IN TEMPERATURES.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AT 8 KTS
OR GREATER WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS BY AFTERNOON.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 062342
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
642 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD



000
FXUS64 KMRX 062342
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
642 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 062342
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
642 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KOHX 062325
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
525 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DOWN THROUGH THE AREA WILL PULL EAST THIS EVENING TAKING THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH IT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OFF TO
OUR NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THIS WAY AND BRING CLOUDINESS BACK INTO
THE MID STATE BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT BUT STILL
CHILLY WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 50S. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN
SUNDAY EVENING AS SYSTEM OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST GETS CLOSER WITH
RAIN BECOMING MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. COLD MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXING WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION REALLY KICKS IN WITH 850 MBAR
TEMPS DOWN IN THE -10 DEGREE RANGE AND EVEN COLDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BUT I`VE
SEEN IT SNOW WHEN SURFACE TEMP WAS 43 DEGREES HERE IN NASHVILLE
IF THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT IT CAN HAPPEN. SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WITH EVEN COLDER AIR POURING
IN WITH LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING WEST OF PLATEAU ON TUESDAY BUT
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING EASTERN AREAS AND ALONG PLATEAU. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE ALONG
THE PLATEAU ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND AND IN NORTHEAST
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

DRY WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO MAJOR WARM UP IN SIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FLIGHT RULES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT BUT WILL PICK UP AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. SW GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS
ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR KCKV.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........UNGER
LONG TERM..................01/BOYD




000
FXUS64 KOHX 062325
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
525 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DOWN THROUGH THE AREA WILL PULL EAST THIS EVENING TAKING THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH IT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OFF TO
OUR NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THIS WAY AND BRING CLOUDINESS BACK INTO
THE MID STATE BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT BUT STILL
CHILLY WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 50S. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN
SUNDAY EVENING AS SYSTEM OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST GETS CLOSER WITH
RAIN BECOMING MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. COLD MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXING WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION REALLY KICKS IN WITH 850 MBAR
TEMPS DOWN IN THE -10 DEGREE RANGE AND EVEN COLDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BUT I`VE
SEEN IT SNOW WHEN SURFACE TEMP WAS 43 DEGREES HERE IN NASHVILLE
IF THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT IT CAN HAPPEN. SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WITH EVEN COLDER AIR POURING
IN WITH LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING WEST OF PLATEAU ON TUESDAY BUT
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING EASTERN AREAS AND ALONG PLATEAU. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE ALONG
THE PLATEAU ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND AND IN NORTHEAST
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

DRY WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO MAJOR WARM UP IN SIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FLIGHT RULES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT BUT WILL PICK UP AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. SW GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS
ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR KCKV.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........UNGER
LONG TERM..................01/BOYD



000
FXUS64 KOHX 062325
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
525 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DOWN THROUGH THE AREA WILL PULL EAST THIS EVENING TAKING THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH IT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OFF TO
OUR NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THIS WAY AND BRING CLOUDINESS BACK INTO
THE MID STATE BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT BUT STILL
CHILLY WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 50S. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN
SUNDAY EVENING AS SYSTEM OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST GETS CLOSER WITH
RAIN BECOMING MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. COLD MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXING WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION REALLY KICKS IN WITH 850 MBAR
TEMPS DOWN IN THE -10 DEGREE RANGE AND EVEN COLDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BUT I`VE
SEEN IT SNOW WHEN SURFACE TEMP WAS 43 DEGREES HERE IN NASHVILLE
IF THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT IT CAN HAPPEN. SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WITH EVEN COLDER AIR POURING
IN WITH LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING WEST OF PLATEAU ON TUESDAY BUT
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING EASTERN AREAS AND ALONG PLATEAU. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE ALONG
THE PLATEAU ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND AND IN NORTHEAST
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

DRY WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO MAJOR WARM UP IN SIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FLIGHT RULES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT BUT WILL PICK UP AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. SW GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS
ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR KCKV.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........UNGER
LONG TERM..................01/BOYD




000
FXUS64 KOHX 062045
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
245 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DOWN THROUGH THE AREA WILL PULL EAST THIS EVENING TAKING THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH IT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OFF TO
OUR NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THIS WAY AND BRING CLOUDINESS BACK INTO
THE MID STATE BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT BUT STILL
CHILLY WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 50S. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN
SUNDAY EVENING AS SYSTEM OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST GETS CLOSER WITH
RAIN BECOMING MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. COLD MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXING WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION REALLY KICKS IN WITH 850 MBAR
TEMPS DOWN IN THE -10 DEGREE RANGE AND EVEN COLDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BUT I`VE
SEEN IT SNOW WHEN SURFACE TEMP WAS 43 DEGREES HERE IN NASHVILLE
IF THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT IT CAN HAPPEN. SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WITH EVEN COLDER AIR POURING
IN WITH LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING WEST OF PLATEAU ON TUESDAY BUT
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING EASTERN AREAS AND ALONG PLATEAU. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE ALONG
THE PLATEAU ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND AND IN NORTHEAST
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

DRY WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO MAJOR WARM UP IN SIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      30  55  36  39  25 /   0   0  50  50  30
CLARKSVILLE    31  56  33  37  22 /   0  10  50  50  30
CROSSVILLE     29  50  34  36  21 /   0   0  50  60  50
COLUMBIA       29  54  34  39  24 /   0   0  40  40  30
LAWRENCEBURG   29  54  34  40  25 /   0   0  30  40  30
WAVERLY        31  55  33  37  23 /   0  10  40  50  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........19
LONG TERM..................01/BOYD



000
FXUS64 KOHX 062045
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
245 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DOWN THROUGH THE AREA WILL PULL EAST THIS EVENING TAKING THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH IT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OFF TO
OUR NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THIS WAY AND BRING CLOUDINESS BACK INTO
THE MID STATE BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT BUT STILL
CHILLY WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 50S. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN
SUNDAY EVENING AS SYSTEM OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST GETS CLOSER WITH
RAIN BECOMING MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. COLD MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXING WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION REALLY KICKS IN WITH 850 MBAR
TEMPS DOWN IN THE -10 DEGREE RANGE AND EVEN COLDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BUT I`VE
SEEN IT SNOW WHEN SURFACE TEMP WAS 43 DEGREES HERE IN NASHVILLE
IF THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT IT CAN HAPPEN. SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WITH EVEN COLDER AIR POURING
IN WITH LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING WEST OF PLATEAU ON TUESDAY BUT
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING EASTERN AREAS AND ALONG PLATEAU. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE ALONG
THE PLATEAU ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND AND IN NORTHEAST
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

DRY WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO MAJOR WARM UP IN SIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      30  55  36  39  25 /   0   0  50  50  30
CLARKSVILLE    31  56  33  37  22 /   0  10  50  50  30
CROSSVILLE     29  50  34  36  21 /   0   0  50  60  50
COLUMBIA       29  54  34  39  24 /   0   0  40  40  30
LAWRENCEBURG   29  54  34  40  25 /   0   0  30  40  30
WAVERLY        31  55  33  37  23 /   0  10  40  50  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........19
LONG TERM..................01/BOYD




000
FXUS64 KOHX 062045
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
245 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DOWN THROUGH THE AREA WILL PULL EAST THIS EVENING TAKING THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH IT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OFF TO
OUR NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THIS WAY AND BRING CLOUDINESS BACK INTO
THE MID STATE BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT BUT STILL
CHILLY WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 50S. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN
SUNDAY EVENING AS SYSTEM OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST GETS CLOSER WITH
RAIN BECOMING MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. COLD MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXING WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION REALLY KICKS IN WITH 850 MBAR
TEMPS DOWN IN THE -10 DEGREE RANGE AND EVEN COLDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BUT I`VE
SEEN IT SNOW WHEN SURFACE TEMP WAS 43 DEGREES HERE IN NASHVILLE
IF THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT IT CAN HAPPEN. SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WITH EVEN COLDER AIR POURING
IN WITH LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING WEST OF PLATEAU ON TUESDAY BUT
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING EASTERN AREAS AND ALONG PLATEAU. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE ALONG
THE PLATEAU ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND AND IN NORTHEAST
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

DRY WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO MAJOR WARM UP IN SIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      30  55  36  39  25 /   0   0  50  50  30
CLARKSVILLE    31  56  33  37  22 /   0  10  50  50  30
CROSSVILLE     29  50  34  36  21 /   0   0  50  60  50
COLUMBIA       29  54  34  39  24 /   0   0  40  40  30
LAWRENCEBURG   29  54  34  40  25 /   0   0  30  40  30
WAVERLY        31  55  33  37  23 /   0  10  40  50  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........19
LONG TERM..................01/BOYD




000
FXUS64 KMEG 062038
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
238 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND FORECAST REASONING REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OVER
EASTERN TX WHICH IS INDIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH NEGLIBLE IMPACTS TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MID-SOUTH WHICH WILL DROP TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY ON
MONDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
FLOW EVOLUTION IS DEPICTED WITH NUMEROUS INTERACTING
FEATURES. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE BUT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WILL BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP
WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO THE LARGER
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. MUCH OF THIS PRECIP WILL
FALL AS RAIN...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST AND MIDDLE TN
MONDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS PRECIP-FREE WITH A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND SHOWN IN TEMPERATURES.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS

VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ALTO CU AND CIRRUS
EXITING AROUND 00Z...BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER LOW. LIGHT/CALM
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 07/15Z...WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN HOU AND NEW.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 062038
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
238 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND FORECAST REASONING REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OVER
EASTERN TX WHICH IS INDIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH NEGLIBLE IMPACTS TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MID-SOUTH WHICH WILL DROP TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY ON
MONDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
FLOW EVOLUTION IS DEPICTED WITH NUMEROUS INTERACTING
FEATURES. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE BUT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WILL BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP
WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO THE LARGER
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. MUCH OF THIS PRECIP WILL
FALL AS RAIN...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST AND MIDDLE TN
MONDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS PRECIP-FREE WITH A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND SHOWN IN TEMPERATURES.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS

VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ALTO CU AND CIRRUS
EXITING AROUND 00Z...BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER LOW. LIGHT/CALM
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 07/15Z...WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN HOU AND NEW.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 062038
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
238 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND FORECAST REASONING REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OVER
EASTERN TX WHICH IS INDIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH NEGLIBLE IMPACTS TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MID-SOUTH WHICH WILL DROP TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY ON
MONDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
FLOW EVOLUTION IS DEPICTED WITH NUMEROUS INTERACTING
FEATURES. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE BUT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WILL BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP
WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO THE LARGER
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. MUCH OF THIS PRECIP WILL
FALL AS RAIN...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST AND MIDDLE TN
MONDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS PRECIP-FREE WITH A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND SHOWN IN TEMPERATURES.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS

VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ALTO CU AND CIRRUS
EXITING AROUND 00Z...BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER LOW. LIGHT/CALM
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 07/15Z...WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN HOU AND NEW.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 062038
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
238 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND FORECAST REASONING REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OVER
EASTERN TX WHICH IS INDIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH NEGLIBLE IMPACTS TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MID-SOUTH WHICH WILL DROP TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY ON
MONDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
FLOW EVOLUTION IS DEPICTED WITH NUMEROUS INTERACTING
FEATURES. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE BUT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WILL BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP
WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO THE LARGER
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. MUCH OF THIS PRECIP WILL
FALL AS RAIN...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST AND MIDDLE TN
MONDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS PRECIP-FREE WITH A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND SHOWN IN TEMPERATURES.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS

VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ALTO CU AND CIRRUS
EXITING AROUND 00Z...BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER LOW. LIGHT/CALM
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 07/15Z...WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN HOU AND NEW.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 062038
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
238 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND FORECAST REASONING REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OVER
EASTERN TX WHICH IS INDIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH NEGLIBLE IMPACTS TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MID-SOUTH WHICH WILL DROP TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY ON
MONDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
FLOW EVOLUTION IS DEPICTED WITH NUMEROUS INTERACTING
FEATURES. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE BUT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WILL BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP
WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO THE LARGER
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. MUCH OF THIS PRECIP WILL
FALL AS RAIN...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST AND MIDDLE TN
MONDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS PRECIP-FREE WITH A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND SHOWN IN TEMPERATURES.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS

VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ALTO CU AND CIRRUS
EXITING AROUND 00Z...BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER LOW. LIGHT/CALM
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 07/15Z...WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN HOU AND NEW.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 061956
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
256 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY INTO TOMORROW)... CURRENTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA AS A TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF TODAY AND
START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. WILL ALLOW US TO ONCE AGAIN COOL OFF
INTO THE 20`S TO LOWER 30`S OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY SUNNY AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AND HIGHS WILL BE ABLE TO
REBOUND INTO THE 50`S IN MANY SPOTS ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...UNSEASONABLY COLD
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH THE ADVERTISED AMPLIFICATION TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHICH
UNFORTUNATELY WILL BE A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN. THE DEEPENING
TROUGH BUILDS SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE ARCTIC REGIME SHOULD
BEGIN AROUND LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANGING FROM LIGHT RAIN TO LIGHT SNOW. THE AIR WILL
BE SO COLD ALOFT THAT THERMODYNAMICS SHOULD PLAY A ROLE IN
INITIATING SOME DECENT SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES BUILD
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE DEEP
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH. STILL TWO TO THREE DAYS OUT SO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION A LITTLE TOUGH TO PINPOINT BUT THROUGH THE LENGTHY
PERIOD BEGINNING DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND ENDING LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...PERHAPS THREE TO FIVE INCHES (OR MORE) OF
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN FEATURES WITH A
DUSTING OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT VALLEY (EXCEPTION BEING NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE WHERE TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENT). OF COURSE
OROGRAPHICS WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION.
THE FORECAST AREA GETS A CHANCE TO DRY OUT SO TO SPEAK THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WINTERY
PRECIP WITH A WEAK WAVE PASSAGE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IT MAY
BE DRY AGAIN FOR SATURDAY. AS STATED BEFORE...IT WILL BE A COLD WEEK
WITH HIGHS A GOOD FIFTEEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 30S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A BIT OF A "WARMING"
TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             31  56  35  44 /   0   0  30  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  30  52  34  42 /   0   0  40  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  54  34  43 /   0   0  40  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              25  49  30  41 /   0   0  40  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM/TH




000
FXUS64 KMEG 061740 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1140 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

UPDATE...

EVEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED READILY.
THEREFORE...STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

TVT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING INDICATE
A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BACK
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE BASE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS IS RESULTING IN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. AS OF 2
AM CST...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE.

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO
PRODUCE PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
CLEAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID SOUTH
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF RUNS INDICATE THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY EVENING AND PERHAPS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. THE 00Z/06Z
WRF REMAINS DRIER THAN THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS BUT INDICATES A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND OR SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FORECAST TREND STILL CONTINUES FOR BETTER MOISTURE TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND LATEST 00Z MODELS
SUGGEST QPF AMOUNTS AROUND A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST ACROSS THE
ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES NORTH OF I-40 AND
LOWER 40S SOUTH.

GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS SUGGEST A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES/NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH COLDER AIR RETURNING TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ALTO CU AND CIRRUS
EXITING AROUND 00Z...BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER LOW. LIGHT/CALM
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 07/15Z...WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN HOU AND NEW.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 061739
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1139 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

NICE LITTLE WARM UP TAKING PLACE THIS MORNING, WITH SFC TEMPS
RUNNING A DEG OR SO ABOVE PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS. WILL KEEP THAT
TREND IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, AND NUDGE MAX TEMPS UP A
BIT. OTHERWISE, THINGS LOOK PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK, WITH A
SEASONABLY COOL AFTERNOON STILL IN THE WORKS, AND HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. DESPITE PATCHY MID TO HI LEVEL CLOUDS,
STILL EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.

ALTHOUGH CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE QUITE MINOR, WILL GO
AHEAD AND GENERATE A NEW SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........19
LONG TERM..................01/BOYD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 061721
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1221 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WITH A
PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 061721
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1221 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WITH A
PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM



000
FXUS64 KMEG 061633
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1033 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...

EVEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED READILY.
THEREFORE...STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

TVT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING INDICATE
A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BACK
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE BASE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS IS RESULTING IN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. AS OF 2
AM CST...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE.

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO
PRODUCE PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
CLEAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID SOUTH
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF RUNS INDICATE THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY EVENING AND PERHAPS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. THE 00Z/06Z
WRF REMAINS DRIER THAN THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS BUT INDICATES A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND OR SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FORECAST TREND STILL CONTINUES FOR BETTER MOISTURE TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND LATEST 00Z MODELS
SUGGEST QPF AMOUNTS AROUND A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST ACROSS THE
ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES NORTH OF I-40 AND
LOWER 40S SOUTH.

GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS SUGGEST A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES/NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH COLDER AIR RETURNING TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS.

CJC

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 061618
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1018 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

NICE LITTLE WARM UP TAKING PLACE THIS MORNING, WITH SFC TEMPS
RUNNING A DEG OR SO ABOVE PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS. WILL KEEP THAT
TREND IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, AND NUDGE MAX TEMPS UP A
BIT. OTHERWISE, THINGS LOOK PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK, WITH A
SEASONABLY COOL AFTERNOON STILL IN THE WORKS, AND HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. DESPITE PATCHY MID TO HI LEVEL CLOUDS,
STILL EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.

ALTHOUGH CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE QUITE MINOR, WILL GO
AHEAD AND GENERATE A NEW SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      52  31  54  34  38 /  10   0   0  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    52  30  56  33  37 /  10   0  10  50  50
CROSSVILLE     48  29  51  32  34 /  10   0   0  50  50
COLUMBIA       51  30  54  34  39 /  10   0   0  40  40
LAWRENCEBURG   51  29  53  35  39 /  10   0   0  30  40
WAVERLY        52  30  55  34  37 /  10   0  10  40  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........19
LONG TERM..................01/BOYD




000
FXUS64 KMEG 061132
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
532 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING INDICATE
A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BACK
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE BASE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS IS RESULTING IN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. AS OF 2
AM CST...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE.

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO
PRODUCE PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
CLEAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID SOUTH
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF RUNS INDICATE THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY EVENING AND PERHAPS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. THE 00Z/06Z
WRF REMAINS DRIER THAN THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS BUT INDICATES A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND OR SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FORECAST TREND STILL CONTINUES FOR BETTER MOISTURE TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND LATEST 00Z MODELS
SUGGEST QPF AMOUNTS AROUND A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST ACROSS THE
ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES NORTH OF I-40 AND
LOWER 40S SOUTH.

GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS SUGGEST A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES/NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH COLDER AIR RETURNING TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 061132
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
532 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING INDICATE
A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BACK
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE BASE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS IS RESULTING IN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. AS OF 2
AM CST...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE.

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO
PRODUCE PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
CLEAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID SOUTH
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF RUNS INDICATE THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY EVENING AND PERHAPS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. THE 00Z/06Z
WRF REMAINS DRIER THAN THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS BUT INDICATES A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND OR SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FORECAST TREND STILL CONTINUES FOR BETTER MOISTURE TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND LATEST 00Z MODELS
SUGGEST QPF AMOUNTS AROUND A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST ACROSS THE
ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES NORTH OF I-40 AND
LOWER 40S SOUTH.

GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS SUGGEST A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES/NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH COLDER AIR RETURNING TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 061132
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
532 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING INDICATE
A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BACK
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE BASE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS IS RESULTING IN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. AS OF 2
AM CST...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE.

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO
PRODUCE PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
CLEAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID SOUTH
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF RUNS INDICATE THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY EVENING AND PERHAPS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. THE 00Z/06Z
WRF REMAINS DRIER THAN THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS BUT INDICATES A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND OR SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FORECAST TREND STILL CONTINUES FOR BETTER MOISTURE TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND LATEST 00Z MODELS
SUGGEST QPF AMOUNTS AROUND A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST ACROSS THE
ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES NORTH OF I-40 AND
LOWER 40S SOUTH.

GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS SUGGEST A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES/NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH COLDER AIR RETURNING TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 061128 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
628 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A PASSING UPPER-TROUGH WILL BRING
INCREASED BKN/OVC DECKS OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION TODAY...
BEFORE THE SKY CLEARS OUT LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SHIFT TO THE NW BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 061128 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
628 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A PASSING UPPER-TROUGH WILL BRING
INCREASED BKN/OVC DECKS OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION TODAY...
BEFORE THE SKY CLEARS OUT LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SHIFT TO THE NW BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP



000
FXUS64 KMRX 061128 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
628 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A PASSING UPPER-TROUGH WILL BRING
INCREASED BKN/OVC DECKS OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION TODAY...
BEFORE THE SKY CLEARS OUT LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SHIFT TO THE NW BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KOHX 061125
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
525 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY-MON)

SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM WILL GAIN SOME STRENGTH AS THE AXIS WORKS ACROSS
THE MID STATE BY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME ADDED MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TONIGHT...SKIES WILL
CLEAR AS STRONG NVA PREVAILS. ON SUNDAY...SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL BE INTENSIFYING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NT. BY THEN...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE IN PLACE AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME
LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE FROPA. FURTHERMORE...AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY WITH NUMEROUS IMPULSES UPSTREAM. WILL
THEREFORE INCLUDE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. AS WE
MOVE TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY...FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO
BELOW 700 FT AGL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A
GENERAL CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN TO ALL
SNOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH IS RATHER BROAD SO THE
IMPULSES WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE. BUT...WE COULD SEE A HALF INCH
OR SO OF SNOW ACCUM ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

AS FOR THE SHORT TERM TEMPS...WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND JUST
PRIOR TO THE FROPA ON SUNDAY NT. HIGHS WILL REACH 50 FOR MANY AREAS
TODAY AND THEN WELL INTO THE 50S FOR SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...WILL UNDERCUT THE
GUIDANCE AS ALL THE MODELS SUPPORT CLOUDS WITH LIGHT PRECIP AND
FALLING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -8C TO -10C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS ON MONDAY WILL ADD TO THE CHILL BUT NOT LOOKING TOO TERRIBLY
HIGH...AND WILL GO WITH A WEST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH OR SO. HIGH
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL HOLD IN THE 30S...WINDCHILLS OF 25 TO 30 SO
NOT TOO HORRIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI)

A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN STATES
MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MID TN WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW TO KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE PLATEAU. ANY ACCUMULATIONS LASTING INTO
TUESDAY WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LATE WEEK WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WX WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........13
LONG TERM..................XXI




000
FXUS64 KOHX 061125
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
525 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY-MON)

SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM WILL GAIN SOME STRENGTH AS THE AXIS WORKS ACROSS
THE MID STATE BY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME ADDED MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TONIGHT...SKIES WILL
CLEAR AS STRONG NVA PREVAILS. ON SUNDAY...SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL BE INTENSIFYING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NT. BY THEN...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE IN PLACE AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME
LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE FROPA. FURTHERMORE...AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY WITH NUMEROUS IMPULSES UPSTREAM. WILL
THEREFORE INCLUDE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. AS WE
MOVE TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY...FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO
BELOW 700 FT AGL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A
GENERAL CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN TO ALL
SNOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH IS RATHER BROAD SO THE
IMPULSES WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE. BUT...WE COULD SEE A HALF INCH
OR SO OF SNOW ACCUM ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

AS FOR THE SHORT TERM TEMPS...WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND JUST
PRIOR TO THE FROPA ON SUNDAY NT. HIGHS WILL REACH 50 FOR MANY AREAS
TODAY AND THEN WELL INTO THE 50S FOR SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...WILL UNDERCUT THE
GUIDANCE AS ALL THE MODELS SUPPORT CLOUDS WITH LIGHT PRECIP AND
FALLING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -8C TO -10C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS ON MONDAY WILL ADD TO THE CHILL BUT NOT LOOKING TOO TERRIBLY
HIGH...AND WILL GO WITH A WEST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH OR SO. HIGH
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL HOLD IN THE 30S...WINDCHILLS OF 25 TO 30 SO
NOT TOO HORRIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI)

A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN STATES
MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MID TN WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW TO KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE PLATEAU. ANY ACCUMULATIONS LASTING INTO
TUESDAY WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LATE WEEK WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WX WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........13
LONG TERM..................XXI



000
FXUS64 KOHX 061125
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
525 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY-MON)

SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM WILL GAIN SOME STRENGTH AS THE AXIS WORKS ACROSS
THE MID STATE BY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME ADDED MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TONIGHT...SKIES WILL
CLEAR AS STRONG NVA PREVAILS. ON SUNDAY...SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL BE INTENSIFYING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NT. BY THEN...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE IN PLACE AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME
LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE FROPA. FURTHERMORE...AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY WITH NUMEROUS IMPULSES UPSTREAM. WILL
THEREFORE INCLUDE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. AS WE
MOVE TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY...FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO
BELOW 700 FT AGL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A
GENERAL CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN TO ALL
SNOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH IS RATHER BROAD SO THE
IMPULSES WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE. BUT...WE COULD SEE A HALF INCH
OR SO OF SNOW ACCUM ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

AS FOR THE SHORT TERM TEMPS...WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND JUST
PRIOR TO THE FROPA ON SUNDAY NT. HIGHS WILL REACH 50 FOR MANY AREAS
TODAY AND THEN WELL INTO THE 50S FOR SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...WILL UNDERCUT THE
GUIDANCE AS ALL THE MODELS SUPPORT CLOUDS WITH LIGHT PRECIP AND
FALLING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -8C TO -10C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS ON MONDAY WILL ADD TO THE CHILL BUT NOT LOOKING TOO TERRIBLY
HIGH...AND WILL GO WITH A WEST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH OR SO. HIGH
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL HOLD IN THE 30S...WINDCHILLS OF 25 TO 30 SO
NOT TOO HORRIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI)

A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN STATES
MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MID TN WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW TO KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE PLATEAU. ANY ACCUMULATIONS LASTING INTO
TUESDAY WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LATE WEEK WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WX WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........13
LONG TERM..................XXI




000
FXUS64 KMEG 060916
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
316 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING INDICATE
A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BACK
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE BASE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS IS RESULTING IN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. AS OF 2
AM CST...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE.

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO
PRODUCE PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
CLEAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID SOUTH
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF RUNS INDICATE THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY EVENING AND PERHAPS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. THE 00Z/06Z
WRF REMAINS DRIER THAN THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS BUT INDICATES A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND OR SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FORECAST TREND STILL CONTINUES FOR BETTER MOISTURE TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND LATEST 00Z MODELS
SUGGEST QPF AMOUNTS AROUND A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST ACROSS THE
ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES NORTH OF I-40 AND
LOWER 40S SOUTH.

GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS SUGGEST A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES/NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH COLDER AIR RETURNING TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 060910
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
310 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY-MON)

SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM WILL GAIN SOME STRENGTH AS THE AXIS WORKS ACROSS
THE MID STATE BY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME ADDED MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TONIGHT...SKIES WILL
CLEAR AS STRONG NVA PREVAILS. ON SUNDAY...SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL BE INTENSIFYING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NT. BY THEN...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE IN PLACE AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME
LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE FROPA. FURTHERMORE...AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY WITH NUMEROUS IMPULSES UPSTREAM. WILL
THEREFORE INCLUDE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. AS WE
MOVE TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY...FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO
BELOW 700 FT AGL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A
GENERAL CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN TO ALL
SNOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH IS RATHER BROAD SO THE
IMPULSES WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE. BUT...WE COULD SEE A HALF INCH
OR SO OF SNOW ACCUM ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

AS FOR THE SHORT TERM TEMPS...WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND JUST
PRIOR TO THE FROPA ON SUNDAY NT. HIGHS WILL REACH 50 FOR MANY AREAS
TODAY AND THEN WELL INTO THE 50S FOR SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...WILL UNDERCUT THE
GUIDANCE AS ALL THE MODELS SUPPORT CLOUDS WITH LIGHT PRECIP AND
FALLING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -8C TO -10C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS ON MONDAY WILL ADD TO THE CHILL BUT NOT LOOKING TOO TERRIBLY
HIGH...AND WILL GO WITH A WEST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH OR SO. HIGH
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL HOLD IN THE 30S...WINDCHILLS OF 25 TO 30 SO
NOT TOO HORRIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI)

A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN STATES
MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MID TN WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW TO KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE PLATEAU. ANY ACCUMULATIONS LASTING INTO
TUESDAY WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LATE WEEK WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WX WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND BE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BKN TO OVC SKIES WILL COVER THE
AREA TOMORROW...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      51  31  54  34  38 /  10   0   0  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    51  30  56  33  37 /  10   0  10  50  50
CROSSVILLE     47  29  51  32  34 /  10   0   0  50  50
COLUMBIA       50  30  54  34  39 /  10   0   0  40  40
LAWRENCEBURG   50  29  53  35  39 /  10   0   0  30  40
WAVERLY        51  30  55  34  37 /  10   0  10  40  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........21
LONG TERM..................13




000
FXUS64 KOHX 060910
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
310 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY-MON)

SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM WILL GAIN SOME STRENGTH AS THE AXIS WORKS ACROSS
THE MID STATE BY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME ADDED MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TONIGHT...SKIES WILL
CLEAR AS STRONG NVA PREVAILS. ON SUNDAY...SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL BE INTENSIFYING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NT. BY THEN...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE IN PLACE AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME
LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE FROPA. FURTHERMORE...AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY WITH NUMEROUS IMPULSES UPSTREAM. WILL
THEREFORE INCLUDE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. AS WE
MOVE TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY...FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO
BELOW 700 FT AGL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A
GENERAL CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN TO ALL
SNOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH IS RATHER BROAD SO THE
IMPULSES WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE. BUT...WE COULD SEE A HALF INCH
OR SO OF SNOW ACCUM ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

AS FOR THE SHORT TERM TEMPS...WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND JUST
PRIOR TO THE FROPA ON SUNDAY NT. HIGHS WILL REACH 50 FOR MANY AREAS
TODAY AND THEN WELL INTO THE 50S FOR SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...WILL UNDERCUT THE
GUIDANCE AS ALL THE MODELS SUPPORT CLOUDS WITH LIGHT PRECIP AND
FALLING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -8C TO -10C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS ON MONDAY WILL ADD TO THE CHILL BUT NOT LOOKING TOO TERRIBLY
HIGH...AND WILL GO WITH A WEST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH OR SO. HIGH
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL HOLD IN THE 30S...WINDCHILLS OF 25 TO 30 SO
NOT TOO HORRIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI)

A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN STATES
MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MID TN WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW TO KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE PLATEAU. ANY ACCUMULATIONS LASTING INTO
TUESDAY WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LATE WEEK WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WX WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND BE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BKN TO OVC SKIES WILL COVER THE
AREA TOMORROW...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      51  31  54  34  38 /  10   0   0  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    51  30  56  33  37 /  10   0  10  50  50
CROSSVILLE     47  29  51  32  34 /  10   0   0  50  50
COLUMBIA       50  30  54  34  39 /  10   0   0  40  40
LAWRENCEBURG   50  29  53  35  39 /  10   0   0  30  40
WAVERLY        51  30  55  34  37 /  10   0  10  40  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........21
LONG TERM..................13




000
FXUS64 KOHX 060910
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
310 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY-MON)

SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM WILL GAIN SOME STRENGTH AS THE AXIS WORKS ACROSS
THE MID STATE BY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME ADDED MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TONIGHT...SKIES WILL
CLEAR AS STRONG NVA PREVAILS. ON SUNDAY...SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL BE INTENSIFYING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NT. BY THEN...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE IN PLACE AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME
LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE FROPA. FURTHERMORE...AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY WITH NUMEROUS IMPULSES UPSTREAM. WILL
THEREFORE INCLUDE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. AS WE
MOVE TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY...FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO
BELOW 700 FT AGL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A
GENERAL CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN TO ALL
SNOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH IS RATHER BROAD SO THE
IMPULSES WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE. BUT...WE COULD SEE A HALF INCH
OR SO OF SNOW ACCUM ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

AS FOR THE SHORT TERM TEMPS...WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND JUST
PRIOR TO THE FROPA ON SUNDAY NT. HIGHS WILL REACH 50 FOR MANY AREAS
TODAY AND THEN WELL INTO THE 50S FOR SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...WILL UNDERCUT THE
GUIDANCE AS ALL THE MODELS SUPPORT CLOUDS WITH LIGHT PRECIP AND
FALLING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -8C TO -10C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS ON MONDAY WILL ADD TO THE CHILL BUT NOT LOOKING TOO TERRIBLY
HIGH...AND WILL GO WITH A WEST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH OR SO. HIGH
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL HOLD IN THE 30S...WINDCHILLS OF 25 TO 30 SO
NOT TOO HORRIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI)

A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN STATES
MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MID TN WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW TO KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE PLATEAU. ANY ACCUMULATIONS LASTING INTO
TUESDAY WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LATE WEEK WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WX WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND BE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BKN TO OVC SKIES WILL COVER THE
AREA TOMORROW...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      51  31  54  34  38 /  10   0   0  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    51  30  56  33  37 /  10   0  10  50  50
CROSSVILLE     47  29  51  32  34 /  10   0   0  50  50
COLUMBIA       50  30  54  34  39 /  10   0   0  40  40
LAWRENCEBURG   50  29  53  35  39 /  10   0   0  30  40
WAVERLY        51  30  55  34  37 /  10   0  10  40  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........21
LONG TERM..................13



000
FXUS64 KMRX 060809
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
309 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
A QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING AT THE SURFACE.
THIS RIDGE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST...AS A BROAD TROUGH WILL
SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE TODAY. WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...A BROAD AREA OF BKN/OVC MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY...MAKING FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY
DAY. SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 45 TO 50
DEGREE RANGE IN MOST AREAS TODAY...BUT THIS CLOUD COVER WILL CUT
DOWN ON HEATING SLIGHTLY...SO HAVE GONE A DEGREE OR SO BELOW
GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT...THIS TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH AND CLEAR THE
AREA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...THE SKY
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...MAKING FOR A CHILLY MORNING ONCE
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY WITH MILD CONDITIONS.

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL CONTINUE BE A DEVELOPING LONG-WAVE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LOW. ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE STRONGEST. EITHER WAY A
TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED JET DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY. MODELS ALSO SHOW
STEEPENING LAPSE RATE AS UPPER TROUGH BRINGS COLDER AIR ALOFT.
FAIRLY DECENT LOW-LEVEL CAPES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

WILL CALL FOR LIKELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS TRICKY AND WILL BEGIN AS RAIN IN THE
VALLEY AND MIXTURE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION PLATEAU/MOUNTAINS...THEN
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW DUIRNG THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT UNCERTAIN FOR THE VALLEY.  WILL HIGHLIGHT
THIS WITHIN THE HWO AND SPS. DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION MONDAY...DID
NOT FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE. HAVE HIGHS IN THE MORNING...THEN
DROPPING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FOR TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW OROGRAPHIC SNOW ANTICIPATED WITH
FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED AREA-WIDE. AGAIN...HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE BEGINS TO
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             50  31  56  35 /   0   0   0  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  46  30  52  34 /   0   0   0  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       48  30  54  34 /   0   0   0  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              44  25  49  30 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP/DH




000
FXUS64 KMRX 060809
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
309 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
A QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING AT THE SURFACE.
THIS RIDGE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST...AS A BROAD TROUGH WILL
SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE TODAY. WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...A BROAD AREA OF BKN/OVC MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY...MAKING FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY
DAY. SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 45 TO 50
DEGREE RANGE IN MOST AREAS TODAY...BUT THIS CLOUD COVER WILL CUT
DOWN ON HEATING SLIGHTLY...SO HAVE GONE A DEGREE OR SO BELOW
GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT...THIS TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH AND CLEAR THE
AREA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...THE SKY
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...MAKING FOR A CHILLY MORNING ONCE
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY WITH MILD CONDITIONS.

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL CONTINUE BE A DEVELOPING LONG-WAVE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LOW. ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE STRONGEST. EITHER WAY A
TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED JET DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY. MODELS ALSO SHOW
STEEPENING LAPSE RATE AS UPPER TROUGH BRINGS COLDER AIR ALOFT.
FAIRLY DECENT LOW-LEVEL CAPES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

WILL CALL FOR LIKELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS TRICKY AND WILL BEGIN AS RAIN IN THE
VALLEY AND MIXTURE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION PLATEAU/MOUNTAINS...THEN
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW DUIRNG THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT UNCERTAIN FOR THE VALLEY.  WILL HIGHLIGHT
THIS WITHIN THE HWO AND SPS. DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION MONDAY...DID
NOT FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE. HAVE HIGHS IN THE MORNING...THEN
DROPPING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FOR TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW OROGRAPHIC SNOW ANTICIPATED WITH
FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED AREA-WIDE. AGAIN...HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE BEGINS TO
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             50  31  56  35 /   0   0   0  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  46  30  52  34 /   0   0   0  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       48  30  54  34 /   0   0   0  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              44  25  49  30 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP/DH




000
FXUS64 KMEG 060534
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1134 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 815 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND ADJUST EVENING TEMPERATURES.

DISCUSSION...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE OZARKS AND
MIDSOUTH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. IN ADDITION
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOSE DIVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER. FROM THIS
HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER WORDING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT
AND LOWERED EVENING TEMPERATURES.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

QUIET AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE COLDER WEATHER MOVES IN NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION AS A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE EXITS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED AGAIN
TONIGHT.

SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY UNDER
A REGIME ANALOGOUS TO THAT OF TODAY. HIGHS IN THE MID-50S ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL USHER IN COOLER WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
AS VERY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
SNOW PROSPECTS CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SIMPLY LOOK TOO WARM WHEN COMPARED TO WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AREAS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE STAND A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE AT LEAST LIGHT SNOWFALL. THIS COULD CHANGE THROUGH
TIME BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR PRECIP TO PROGRESS THROUGH MORE
QUICKLY.

UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH LARGER THAN
NORMAL SPREAD WHICH IS SHOWN WELL IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. OPTED FOR
A BLEND OF ALL ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 060534
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1134 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 815 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND ADJUST EVENING TEMPERATURES.

DISCUSSION...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE OZARKS AND
MIDSOUTH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. IN ADDITION
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOSE DIVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER. FROM THIS
HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER WORDING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT
AND LOWERED EVENING TEMPERATURES.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

QUIET AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE COLDER WEATHER MOVES IN NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION AS A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE EXITS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED AGAIN
TONIGHT.

SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY UNDER
A REGIME ANALOGOUS TO THAT OF TODAY. HIGHS IN THE MID-50S ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL USHER IN COOLER WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
AS VERY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
SNOW PROSPECTS CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SIMPLY LOOK TOO WARM WHEN COMPARED TO WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AREAS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE STAND A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE AT LEAST LIGHT SNOWFALL. THIS COULD CHANGE THROUGH
TIME BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR PRECIP TO PROGRESS THROUGH MORE
QUICKLY.

UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH LARGER THAN
NORMAL SPREAD WHICH IS SHOWN WELL IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. OPTED FOR
A BLEND OF ALL ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 060526 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1226 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THIS PERIOD...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KOHX 060521
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1121 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT. UPDATED TEMPS AS
CURRENT OBS SHOW THINGS A BIT COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SETTLED IN OVER THE REGION AND LOOK TO WORK THEIR
WAY TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND BE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BKN TO OVC SKIES WILL COVER THE
AREA TOMORROW...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........06/BARNWELL
LONG TERM..................06/BARNWELL




000
FXUS64 KOHX 060457
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1057 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT. UPDATED TEMPS AS
CURRENT OBS SHOW THINGS A BIT COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SETTLED IN OVER THE REGION AND LOOK TO WORK THEIR
WAY TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND BE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BKN TO OVC SKIES WILL COVER THE
AREA TOMORROW...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........06/BARNWELL
LONG TERM..................06/BARNWELL




000
FXUS64 KOHX 060457
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1057 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT. UPDATED TEMPS AS
CURRENT OBS SHOW THINGS A BIT COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SETTLED IN OVER THE REGION AND LOOK TO WORK THEIR
WAY TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND BE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BKN TO OVC SKIES WILL COVER THE
AREA TOMORROW...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........06/BARNWELL
LONG TERM..................06/BARNWELL




000
FXUS64 KOHX 060457
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1057 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT. UPDATED TEMPS AS
CURRENT OBS SHOW THINGS A BIT COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SETTLED IN OVER THE REGION AND LOOK TO WORK THEIR
WAY TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND BE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BKN TO OVC SKIES WILL COVER THE
AREA TOMORROW...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........06/BARNWELL
LONG TERM..................06/BARNWELL



000
FXUS64 KMRX 060238
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
938 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WAS SETTLING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES HAD DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S
BY MID EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
LOWER 20S AND TEENS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH
THE 20S OVERNIGHT BUT A LITTLE SLOWER AS VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO PASS OVERHEAD. NO UPDATE PLANNED.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMEG 060215
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
815 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND ADJUST EVENING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE OZARKS AND
MIDSOUTH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. IN ADDITION
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOSE DIVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER. FROM THIS
HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER WORDING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT
AND LOWERED EVENING TEMPERATURES.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

UPDATE...

UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

QUIET AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE COLDER WEATHER MOVES IN NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION AS A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE EXITS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED AGAIN
TONIGHT.

SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY UNDER
A REGIME ANALOGOUS TO THAT OF TODAY. HIGHS IN THE MID-50S ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL USHER IN COOLER WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
AS VERY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
SNOW PROSPECTS CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SIMPLY LOOK TOO WARM WHEN COMPARED TO WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AREAS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE STAND A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE AT LEAST LIGHT SNOWFALL. THIS COULD CHANGE THROUGH
TIME BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR PRECIP TO PROGRESS THROUGH MORE
QUICKLY.

UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH LARGER THAN
NORMAL SPREAD WHICH IS SHOWN WELL IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. OPTED FOR
A BLEND OF ALL ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 052347
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
547 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST OVER THE AREA. A MOISTURE-DEPRIVED SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW BRINGING AN
INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING
WEST TO EAST IN TIME FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SEASONABLE ON SATURDAY AND A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER.

A TROUGH WILL BEGIN DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND APPROACH OUR AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
LARGE TROUGH WILL HAVE A SERIES OF LOBES OF ENERGY TO ROUND THE BASE
BRINGING INCREASED LIFT AND PRECIP CHANCES INTO MIDDLE TN. 12Z
MODELS HAVE COME IN COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. FIRST SHOT OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. THIS PRECIP LOOKS
TO BE IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN BUT SOME SNOW FLAKES MAY MIX IN
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND THE NORTH OF I-40. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL HOLD STEADY OR EVEN DROP DURING THE
DAY. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE OPPORTUNITY OF SOME
WET BULB COOLING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS MODELS ARE TRENDING COOLER AND A
QUICKER CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON MONDAY LOOKS POSSIBLE. SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE PLATEAU. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIKELY AT THE
MOMENT FROM THIS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES. SREF PLUMES ARE NOT
IMPRESSED WITH A MEAN ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT
MONDAY AT CSV, BNA, AND CKV. AT THIS POINT THE PLATEAU MAY PICK UP
AN INCH WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF TWO INCHES AND A DUSTING ELSEWHERE
ACROSS MIDDLE TN FROM THE ENTIRE EVENT.

AFTER THE LARGE TROUGH AND PRECIP MOVES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT... MIDDLE
TN WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY NORTHERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SWITCHING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THURSDAY BRINGING A QUICK
REPRIEVE FROM THE COLD. GFS AND EURO SHOW ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A RETURN OF COOLER AIR FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND BE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BKN TO OVC SKIES WILL COVER THE
AREA TOMORROW...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........06/BARNWELL
LONG TERM..................UNGER




000
FXUS64 KOHX 052347
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
547 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST OVER THE AREA. A MOISTURE-DEPRIVED SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW BRINGING AN
INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING
WEST TO EAST IN TIME FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SEASONABLE ON SATURDAY AND A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER.

A TROUGH WILL BEGIN DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND APPROACH OUR AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
LARGE TROUGH WILL HAVE A SERIES OF LOBES OF ENERGY TO ROUND THE BASE
BRINGING INCREASED LIFT AND PRECIP CHANCES INTO MIDDLE TN. 12Z
MODELS HAVE COME IN COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. FIRST SHOT OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. THIS PRECIP LOOKS
TO BE IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN BUT SOME SNOW FLAKES MAY MIX IN
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND THE NORTH OF I-40. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL HOLD STEADY OR EVEN DROP DURING THE
DAY. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE OPPORTUNITY OF SOME
WET BULB COOLING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS MODELS ARE TRENDING COOLER AND A
QUICKER CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON MONDAY LOOKS POSSIBLE. SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE PLATEAU. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIKELY AT THE
MOMENT FROM THIS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES. SREF PLUMES ARE NOT
IMPRESSED WITH A MEAN ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT
MONDAY AT CSV, BNA, AND CKV. AT THIS POINT THE PLATEAU MAY PICK UP
AN INCH WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF TWO INCHES AND A DUSTING ELSEWHERE
ACROSS MIDDLE TN FROM THE ENTIRE EVENT.

AFTER THE LARGE TROUGH AND PRECIP MOVES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT... MIDDLE
TN WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY NORTHERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SWITCHING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THURSDAY BRINGING A QUICK
REPRIEVE FROM THE COLD. GFS AND EURO SHOW ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A RETURN OF COOLER AIR FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND BE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BKN TO OVC SKIES WILL COVER THE
AREA TOMORROW...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........06/BARNWELL
LONG TERM..................UNGER



000
FXUS64 KOHX 052347
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
547 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST OVER THE AREA. A MOISTURE-DEPRIVED SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW BRINGING AN
INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING
WEST TO EAST IN TIME FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SEASONABLE ON SATURDAY AND A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER.

A TROUGH WILL BEGIN DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND APPROACH OUR AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
LARGE TROUGH WILL HAVE A SERIES OF LOBES OF ENERGY TO ROUND THE BASE
BRINGING INCREASED LIFT AND PRECIP CHANCES INTO MIDDLE TN. 12Z
MODELS HAVE COME IN COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. FIRST SHOT OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. THIS PRECIP LOOKS
TO BE IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN BUT SOME SNOW FLAKES MAY MIX IN
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND THE NORTH OF I-40. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL HOLD STEADY OR EVEN DROP DURING THE
DAY. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE OPPORTUNITY OF SOME
WET BULB COOLING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS MODELS ARE TRENDING COOLER AND A
QUICKER CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON MONDAY LOOKS POSSIBLE. SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE PLATEAU. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIKELY AT THE
MOMENT FROM THIS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES. SREF PLUMES ARE NOT
IMPRESSED WITH A MEAN ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT
MONDAY AT CSV, BNA, AND CKV. AT THIS POINT THE PLATEAU MAY PICK UP
AN INCH WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF TWO INCHES AND A DUSTING ELSEWHERE
ACROSS MIDDLE TN FROM THE ENTIRE EVENT.

AFTER THE LARGE TROUGH AND PRECIP MOVES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT... MIDDLE
TN WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY NORTHERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SWITCHING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THURSDAY BRINGING A QUICK
REPRIEVE FROM THE COLD. GFS AND EURO SHOW ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A RETURN OF COOLER AIR FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND BE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BKN TO OVC SKIES WILL COVER THE
AREA TOMORROW...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........06/BARNWELL
LONG TERM..................UNGER



000
FXUS64 KOHX 052347
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
547 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST OVER THE AREA. A MOISTURE-DEPRIVED SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW BRINGING AN
INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING
WEST TO EAST IN TIME FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SEASONABLE ON SATURDAY AND A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER.

A TROUGH WILL BEGIN DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND APPROACH OUR AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
LARGE TROUGH WILL HAVE A SERIES OF LOBES OF ENERGY TO ROUND THE BASE
BRINGING INCREASED LIFT AND PRECIP CHANCES INTO MIDDLE TN. 12Z
MODELS HAVE COME IN COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. FIRST SHOT OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. THIS PRECIP LOOKS
TO BE IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN BUT SOME SNOW FLAKES MAY MIX IN
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND THE NORTH OF I-40. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL HOLD STEADY OR EVEN DROP DURING THE
DAY. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE OPPORTUNITY OF SOME
WET BULB COOLING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS MODELS ARE TRENDING COOLER AND A
QUICKER CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON MONDAY LOOKS POSSIBLE. SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE PLATEAU. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIKELY AT THE
MOMENT FROM THIS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES. SREF PLUMES ARE NOT
IMPRESSED WITH A MEAN ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT
MONDAY AT CSV, BNA, AND CKV. AT THIS POINT THE PLATEAU MAY PICK UP
AN INCH WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF TWO INCHES AND A DUSTING ELSEWHERE
ACROSS MIDDLE TN FROM THE ENTIRE EVENT.

AFTER THE LARGE TROUGH AND PRECIP MOVES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT... MIDDLE
TN WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY NORTHERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SWITCHING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THURSDAY BRINGING A QUICK
REPRIEVE FROM THE COLD. GFS AND EURO SHOW ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A RETURN OF COOLER AIR FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND BE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BKN TO OVC SKIES WILL COVER THE
AREA TOMORROW...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........06/BARNWELL
LONG TERM..................UNGER



000
FXUS64 KOHX 052347
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
547 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST OVER THE AREA. A MOISTURE-DEPRIVED SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW BRINGING AN
INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING
WEST TO EAST IN TIME FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SEASONABLE ON SATURDAY AND A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER.

A TROUGH WILL BEGIN DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND APPROACH OUR AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
LARGE TROUGH WILL HAVE A SERIES OF LOBES OF ENERGY TO ROUND THE BASE
BRINGING INCREASED LIFT AND PRECIP CHANCES INTO MIDDLE TN. 12Z
MODELS HAVE COME IN COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. FIRST SHOT OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. THIS PRECIP LOOKS
TO BE IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN BUT SOME SNOW FLAKES MAY MIX IN
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND THE NORTH OF I-40. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL HOLD STEADY OR EVEN DROP DURING THE
DAY. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE OPPORTUNITY OF SOME
WET BULB COOLING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS MODELS ARE TRENDING COOLER AND A
QUICKER CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON MONDAY LOOKS POSSIBLE. SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE PLATEAU. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIKELY AT THE
MOMENT FROM THIS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES. SREF PLUMES ARE NOT
IMPRESSED WITH A MEAN ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT
MONDAY AT CSV, BNA, AND CKV. AT THIS POINT THE PLATEAU MAY PICK UP
AN INCH WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF TWO INCHES AND A DUSTING ELSEWHERE
ACROSS MIDDLE TN FROM THE ENTIRE EVENT.

AFTER THE LARGE TROUGH AND PRECIP MOVES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT... MIDDLE
TN WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY NORTHERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SWITCHING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THURSDAY BRINGING A QUICK
REPRIEVE FROM THE COLD. GFS AND EURO SHOW ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A RETURN OF COOLER AIR FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND BE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BKN TO OVC SKIES WILL COVER THE
AREA TOMORROW...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........06/BARNWELL
LONG TERM..................UNGER



000
FXUS64 KMEG 052345
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
545 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

QUIET AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE COLDER WEATHER MOVES IN NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION AS A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE EXITS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED AGAIN
TONIGHT.

SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY UNDER
A REGIME ANALOGOUS TO THAT OF TODAY. HIGHS IN THE MID-50S ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL USHER IN COOLER WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
AS VERY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
SNOW PROSPECTS CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SIMPLY LOOK TOO WARM WHEN COMPARED TO WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AREAS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE STAND A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE AT LEAST LIGHT SNOWFALL. THIS COULD CHANGE THROUGH
TIME BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR PRECIP TO PROGRESS THROUGH MORE
QUICKLY.

UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH LARGER THAN
NORMAL SPREAD WHICH IS SHOWN WELL IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. OPTED FOR
A BLEND OF ALL ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 052345
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
545 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

QUIET AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE COLDER WEATHER MOVES IN NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION AS A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE EXITS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED AGAIN
TONIGHT.

SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY UNDER
A REGIME ANALOGOUS TO THAT OF TODAY. HIGHS IN THE MID-50S ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL USHER IN COOLER WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
AS VERY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
SNOW PROSPECTS CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SIMPLY LOOK TOO WARM WHEN COMPARED TO WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AREAS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE STAND A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE AT LEAST LIGHT SNOWFALL. THIS COULD CHANGE THROUGH
TIME BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR PRECIP TO PROGRESS THROUGH MORE
QUICKLY.

UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH LARGER THAN
NORMAL SPREAD WHICH IS SHOWN WELL IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. OPTED FOR
A BLEND OF ALL ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 052345
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
545 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

QUIET AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE COLDER WEATHER MOVES IN NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION AS A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE EXITS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED AGAIN
TONIGHT.

SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY UNDER
A REGIME ANALOGOUS TO THAT OF TODAY. HIGHS IN THE MID-50S ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL USHER IN COOLER WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
AS VERY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
SNOW PROSPECTS CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SIMPLY LOOK TOO WARM WHEN COMPARED TO WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AREAS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE STAND A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE AT LEAST LIGHT SNOWFALL. THIS COULD CHANGE THROUGH
TIME BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR PRECIP TO PROGRESS THROUGH MORE
QUICKLY.

UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH LARGER THAN
NORMAL SPREAD WHICH IS SHOWN WELL IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. OPTED FOR
A BLEND OF ALL ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 052340
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
640 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 052340
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
640 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD



000
FXUS64 KOHX 052120
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
320 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST OVER THE AREA. A MOISTURE-DEPRIVED SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW BRINGING AN
INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING
WEST TO EAST IN TIME FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SEASONABLE ON SATURDAY AND A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER.

A TROUGH WILL BEGIN DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND APPROACH OUR AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
LARGE TROUGH WILL HAVE A SERIES OF LOBES OF ENERGY TO ROUND THE BASE
BRINGING INCREASED LIFT AND PRECIP CHANCES INTO MIDDLE TN. 12Z
MODELS HAVE COME IN COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. FIRST SHOT OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. THIS PRECIP LOOKS
TO BE IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN BUT SOME SNOW FLAKES MAY MIX IN
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND THE NORTH OF I-40. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL HOLD STEADY OR EVEN DROP DURING THE
DAY. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE OPPORTUNITY OF SOME
WET BULB COOLING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS MODELS ARE TRENDING COOLER AND A
QUICKER CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON MONDAY LOOKS POSSIBLE. SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE PLATEAU. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIKELY AT THE
MOMENT FROM THIS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES. SREF PLUMES ARE NOT
IMPRESSED WITH A MEAN ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT
MONDAY AT CSV, BNA, AND CKV. AT THIS POINT THE PLATEAU MAY PICK UP
AN INCH WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF TWO INCHES AND A DUSTING ELSEWHERE
ACROSS MIDDLE TN FROM THE ENTIRE EVENT.

AFTER THE LARGE TROUGH AND PRECIP MOVES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT... MIDDLE
TN WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY NORTHERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SWITCHING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THURSDAY BRINGING A QUICK
REPRIEVE FROM THE COLD. GFS AND EURO SHOW ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A RETURN OF COOLER AIR FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      30  52  33  55  35 /   0  10   0   0  50
CLARKSVILLE    29  52  33  55  34 /   0  10   0  10  50
CROSSVILLE     26  47  30  50  33 /   0  10   0   0  50
COLUMBIA       29  51  31  54  34 /   0  10   0   0  40
LAWRENCEBURG   29  50  30  54  35 /   0  10   0   0  30
WAVERLY        31  52  33  54  34 /   0  10   0  10  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........01/BOYD
LONG TERM..................10/REAGAN




000
FXUS64 KMEG 052043
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
243 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE COLDER WEATHER MOVES IN NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION AS A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE EXITS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED AGAIN
TONIGHT.

SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY UNDER
A REGIME ANALOGOUS TO THAT OF TODAY. HIGHS IN THE MID-50S ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL USHER IN COOLER WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
AS VERY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
SNOW PROSPECTS CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SIMPLY LOOK TOO WARM WHEN COMPARED TO WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AREAS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE STAND A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE AT LEAST LIGHT SNOWFALL. THIS COULD CHANGE THROUGH
TIME BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR PRECIP TO PROGRESS THROUGH MORE
QUICKLY.

UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH LARGER THAN
NORMAL SPREAD WHICH IS SHOWN WELL IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. OPTED FOR
A BLEND OF ALL ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST.

TVT


.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS

A MID-CONTINENTAL SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 052043
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
243 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE COLDER WEATHER MOVES IN NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION AS A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE EXITS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED AGAIN
TONIGHT.

SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY UNDER
A REGIME ANALOGOUS TO THAT OF TODAY. HIGHS IN THE MID-50S ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL USHER IN COOLER WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
AS VERY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
SNOW PROSPECTS CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SIMPLY LOOK TOO WARM WHEN COMPARED TO WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AREAS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE STAND A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE AT LEAST LIGHT SNOWFALL. THIS COULD CHANGE THROUGH
TIME BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR PRECIP TO PROGRESS THROUGH MORE
QUICKLY.

UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH LARGER THAN
NORMAL SPREAD WHICH IS SHOWN WELL IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. OPTED FOR
A BLEND OF ALL ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST.

TVT


.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS

A MID-CONTINENTAL SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 051934
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
234 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE PRESENT
ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER WINDS, GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH, HAVE
HELPED TO KEEP CLOUDS AWAY AND TEMPERATURES JUST A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20`S IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE
WE WARM UP AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40`S TO LOW 50`S TOMORROW.
WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TOMORROW AS HIGHER
MOISTURE AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE
LONG TERM WILL BE THE AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A DEEPENING UPPER
LOW FORMING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW. THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
IN THIS REGIME WILL PULL ARCTIC AIR INTO THE DEEP SOUTH LIMITING
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE SOME MODIFICATION OF THE CHILLY AIR IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL
ACCOMPANY THE ARCTIC AIR ON ITS WAY INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY AND THIS SHOULD BE LIFTED INTO A PATTERN OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS A LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE GREAT
VALLEY WITH PERHAPS SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DUE TO RELATIVELY STRONG OROGRAPHIC LIFT THROUGH THE THREE
DAY PERIOD. GENERALLY IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK HOWEVER...PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A COUPLE SNOW
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST TENNESSEE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK WAVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             28  51  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  27  48  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       27  50  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              22  45  26  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM/TH




000
FXUS64 KOHX 051834
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1234 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S AND WITH FULL
SUN SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING FORECAST HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL BRING LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS TO THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON. BEEN WATCHING A FEATURE
DOWN IN OKLAHOMA FIRST NOTICED IN WATER VAPOR AND CAN ALSO BE SEEN
ALSO IN INFRARED. POSSIBLE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX. THIS FEATURE
DOESN`T SEEM TO BE PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER AND SHOULD MOVE
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FROM PADUCAH TO LOUISVILLE BY 00Z.

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........01/BOYD
LONG TERM..................10/REAGAN



000
FXUS64 KOHX 051834
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1234 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S AND WITH FULL
SUN SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING FORECAST HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL BRING LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS TO THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON. BEEN WATCHING A FEATURE
DOWN IN OKLAHOMA FIRST NOTICED IN WATER VAPOR AND CAN ALSO BE SEEN
ALSO IN INFRARED. POSSIBLE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX. THIS FEATURE
DOESN`T SEEM TO BE PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER AND SHOULD MOVE
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FROM PADUCAH TO LOUISVILLE BY 00Z.

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........01/BOYD
LONG TERM..................10/REAGAN




000
FXUS64 KOHX 051834
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1234 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S AND WITH FULL
SUN SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING FORECAST HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL BRING LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS TO THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON. BEEN WATCHING A FEATURE
DOWN IN OKLAHOMA FIRST NOTICED IN WATER VAPOR AND CAN ALSO BE SEEN
ALSO IN INFRARED. POSSIBLE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX. THIS FEATURE
DOESN`T SEEM TO BE PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER AND SHOULD MOVE
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FROM PADUCAH TO LOUISVILLE BY 00Z.

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........01/BOYD
LONG TERM..................10/REAGAN




000
FXUS64 KMRX 051727
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1227 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. FEW HIGH CLOUDS PASSING WILL BE THE BIGGEST WEATHER STORY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM



000
FXUS64 KMRX 051727
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1227 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. FEW HIGH CLOUDS PASSING WILL BE THE BIGGEST WEATHER STORY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM




000
FXUS64 KMEG 051727 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1127 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

UPDATE...

THE ONLY UPDATE TO TODAY`S FORECAST WAS TO RAISE TEMPS A DEGREE OR
TWO UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED QUICKLY
THIS MORNING...AND WHILE A LEVELING IS EXPECTED...HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 50S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.

TVT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTH INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLEAR
SKIES ARE PREVALENT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 AM CST IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ANOTHER DAY OF PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S
AT MANY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH THE COOLEST READINGS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SHORT TERM MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT OVERALL INTO
THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO A
CONTINUATION OF PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS STILL INDICATE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DIVE FROM CANADA INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TO THE MID
SOUTH ALONG WITH ARCTIC AIR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN TO MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW INTO MONDAY MONDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. SOME QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN WITH
THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST BEST MOISTURE REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE MID
SOUTH. NONETHELESS...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES NEXT TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH 40 DEGREES BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

A MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 051727 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1127 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

UPDATE...

THE ONLY UPDATE TO TODAY`S FORECAST WAS TO RAISE TEMPS A DEGREE OR
TWO UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED QUICKLY
THIS MORNING...AND WHILE A LEVELING IS EXPECTED...HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 50S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.

TVT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTH INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLEAR
SKIES ARE PREVALENT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 AM CST IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ANOTHER DAY OF PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S
AT MANY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH THE COOLEST READINGS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SHORT TERM MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT OVERALL INTO
THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO A
CONTINUATION OF PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS STILL INDICATE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DIVE FROM CANADA INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TO THE MID
SOUTH ALONG WITH ARCTIC AIR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN TO MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW INTO MONDAY MONDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. SOME QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN WITH
THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST BEST MOISTURE REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE MID
SOUTH. NONETHELESS...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES NEXT TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH 40 DEGREES BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

A MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 051727 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1127 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

UPDATE...

THE ONLY UPDATE TO TODAY`S FORECAST WAS TO RAISE TEMPS A DEGREE OR
TWO UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED QUICKLY
THIS MORNING...AND WHILE A LEVELING IS EXPECTED...HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 50S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.

TVT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTH INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLEAR
SKIES ARE PREVALENT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 AM CST IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ANOTHER DAY OF PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S
AT MANY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH THE COOLEST READINGS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SHORT TERM MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT OVERALL INTO
THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO A
CONTINUATION OF PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS STILL INDICATE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DIVE FROM CANADA INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TO THE MID
SOUTH ALONG WITH ARCTIC AIR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN TO MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW INTO MONDAY MONDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. SOME QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN WITH
THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST BEST MOISTURE REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE MID
SOUTH. NONETHELESS...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES NEXT TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH 40 DEGREES BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

A MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 051727
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1227 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. FEW HIGH CLOUDS PASSING WILL BE THE BIGGEST WEATHER STORY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM




000
FXUS64 KMEG 051653
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1053 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...

THE ONLY UPDATE TO TODAY`S FORECAST WAS TO RAISE TEMPS A DEGREE OR
TWO UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED QUICKLY
THIS MORNING...AND WHILE A LEVELING IS EXPECTED...HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 50S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.

TVT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTH INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLEAR
SKIES ARE PREVALENT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 AM CST IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ANOTHER DAY OF PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S
AT MANY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH THE COOLEST READINGS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SHORT TERM MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT OVERALL INTO
THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO A
CONTINUATION OF PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS STILL INDICATE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DIVE FROM CANADA INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TO THE MID
SOUTH ALONG WITH ARCTIC AIR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN TO MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW INTO MONDAY MONDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. SOME QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN WITH
THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST BEST MOISTURE REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE MID
SOUTH. NONETHELESS...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES NEXT TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH 40 DEGREES BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST.

CJC

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE NEAR CALM THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOME SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 5
KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM AGAIN THIS
EVENING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 051653
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1053 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...

THE ONLY UPDATE TO TODAY`S FORECAST WAS TO RAISE TEMPS A DEGREE OR
TWO UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED QUICKLY
THIS MORNING...AND WHILE A LEVELING IS EXPECTED...HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 50S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.

TVT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTH INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLEAR
SKIES ARE PREVALENT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 AM CST IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ANOTHER DAY OF PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S
AT MANY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH THE COOLEST READINGS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SHORT TERM MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT OVERALL INTO
THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO A
CONTINUATION OF PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS STILL INDICATE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DIVE FROM CANADA INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TO THE MID
SOUTH ALONG WITH ARCTIC AIR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN TO MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW INTO MONDAY MONDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. SOME QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN WITH
THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST BEST MOISTURE REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE MID
SOUTH. NONETHELESS...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES NEXT TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH 40 DEGREES BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST.

CJC

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE NEAR CALM THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOME SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 5
KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM AGAIN THIS
EVENING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 051622
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1022 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S AND WITH FULL
SUN SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING FORECAST HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL BRING LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS TO THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON. BEEN WATCHING A FEATURE
DOWN IN OKLAHOMA FIRST NOTICED IN WATER VAPOR AND CAN ALSO BE SEEN
ALSO IN INFRARED. POSSIBLE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX. THIS FEATURE
DOESN`T SEEM TO BE PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER AND SHOULD MOVE
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FROM PADUCAH TO LOUISVILLE BY 00Z.

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VRB WINDS.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........01/BOYD
LONG TERM..................10/REAGAN



000
FXUS64 KOHX 051622
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1022 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S AND WITH FULL
SUN SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING FORECAST HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL BRING LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS TO THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON. BEEN WATCHING A FEATURE
DOWN IN OKLAHOMA FIRST NOTICED IN WATER VAPOR AND CAN ALSO BE SEEN
ALSO IN INFRARED. POSSIBLE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX. THIS FEATURE
DOESN`T SEEM TO BE PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER AND SHOULD MOVE
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FROM PADUCAH TO LOUISVILLE BY 00Z.

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VRB WINDS.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........01/BOYD
LONG TERM..................10/REAGAN




000
FXUS64 KOHX 051622
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1022 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S AND WITH FULL
SUN SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING FORECAST HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL BRING LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS TO THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON. BEEN WATCHING A FEATURE
DOWN IN OKLAHOMA FIRST NOTICED IN WATER VAPOR AND CAN ALSO BE SEEN
ALSO IN INFRARED. POSSIBLE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX. THIS FEATURE
DOESN`T SEEM TO BE PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER AND SHOULD MOVE
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FROM PADUCAH TO LOUISVILLE BY 00Z.

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VRB WINDS.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........01/BOYD
LONG TERM..................10/REAGAN




000
FXUS64 KMRX 051152 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
652 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 051152 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
652 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 051152 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
652 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP



000
FXUS64 KMEG 051128
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
528 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTH INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLEAR
SKIES ARE PREVALENT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 AM CST IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ANOTHER DAY OF PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S
AT MANY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH THE COOLEST READINGS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SHORT TERM MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT OVERALL INTO
THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO A
CONTINUATION OF PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS STILL INDICATE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DIVE FROM CANADA INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TO THE MID
SOUTH ALONG WITH ARCTIC AIR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN TO MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW INTO MONDAY MONDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. SOME QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN WITH
THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST BEST MOISTURE REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE MID
SOUTH. NONETHELESS...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES NEXT TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH 40 DEGREES BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE NEAR CALM THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOME SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 5
KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM AGAIN THIS
EVENING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 051128
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
528 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTH INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLEAR
SKIES ARE PREVALENT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 AM CST IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ANOTHER DAY OF PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S
AT MANY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH THE COOLEST READINGS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SHORT TERM MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT OVERALL INTO
THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO A
CONTINUATION OF PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS STILL INDICATE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DIVE FROM CANADA INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TO THE MID
SOUTH ALONG WITH ARCTIC AIR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN TO MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW INTO MONDAY MONDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. SOME QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN WITH
THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST BEST MOISTURE REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE MID
SOUTH. NONETHELESS...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES NEXT TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH 40 DEGREES BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE NEAR CALM THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOME SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 5
KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM AGAIN THIS
EVENING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 051128
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
528 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTH INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLEAR
SKIES ARE PREVALENT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 AM CST IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ANOTHER DAY OF PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S
AT MANY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH THE COOLEST READINGS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SHORT TERM MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT OVERALL INTO
THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO A
CONTINUATION OF PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS STILL INDICATE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DIVE FROM CANADA INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TO THE MID
SOUTH ALONG WITH ARCTIC AIR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN TO MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW INTO MONDAY MONDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. SOME QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN WITH
THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST BEST MOISTURE REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE MID
SOUTH. NONETHELESS...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES NEXT TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH 40 DEGREES BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE NEAR CALM THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOME SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 5
KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM AGAIN THIS
EVENING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 051128
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
528 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTH INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLEAR
SKIES ARE PREVALENT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 AM CST IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ANOTHER DAY OF PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S
AT MANY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH THE COOLEST READINGS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SHORT TERM MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT OVERALL INTO
THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO A
CONTINUATION OF PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS STILL INDICATE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DIVE FROM CANADA INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TO THE MID
SOUTH ALONG WITH ARCTIC AIR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN TO MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW INTO MONDAY MONDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. SOME QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN WITH
THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST BEST MOISTURE REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE MID
SOUTH. NONETHELESS...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES NEXT TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH 40 DEGREES BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE NEAR CALM THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOME SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 5
KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM AGAIN THIS
EVENING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 051128
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
528 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTH INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLEAR
SKIES ARE PREVALENT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 AM CST IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ANOTHER DAY OF PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S
AT MANY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH THE COOLEST READINGS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SHORT TERM MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT OVERALL INTO
THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO A
CONTINUATION OF PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS STILL INDICATE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DIVE FROM CANADA INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TO THE MID
SOUTH ALONG WITH ARCTIC AIR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN TO MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW INTO MONDAY MONDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. SOME QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN WITH
THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST BEST MOISTURE REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE MID
SOUTH. NONETHELESS...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES NEXT TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH 40 DEGREES BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE NEAR CALM THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOME SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 5
KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM AGAIN THIS
EVENING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 051127
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
527 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SOME PASSING PATCHES OF BKN CI MAYBE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER
06/00Z...BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT AVIATION OPERATIONS...THUS
DID NOT MENTION. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT
WILL PROVIDE FOR VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 06/12Z. LIGHT SW SFC
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BNA/CKV THRU 06/12Z. LIGHT NLY SFC WINDS ARE
EXPECTED CSV THRU 06/00Z...WITH A TRANSITION TO AT LEAST W AS
06/12Z APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VRB WINDS.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........31
LONG TERM..................21



000
FXUS64 KOHX 051127
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
527 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SOME PASSING PATCHES OF BKN CI MAYBE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER
06/00Z...BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT AVIATION OPERATIONS...THUS
DID NOT MENTION. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT
WILL PROVIDE FOR VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 06/12Z. LIGHT SW SFC
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BNA/CKV THRU 06/12Z. LIGHT NLY SFC WINDS ARE
EXPECTED CSV THRU 06/00Z...WITH A TRANSITION TO AT LEAST W AS
06/12Z APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VRB WINDS.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........31
LONG TERM..................21



000
FXUS64 KOHX 051127
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
527 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SOME PASSING PATCHES OF BKN CI MAYBE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER
06/00Z...BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT AVIATION OPERATIONS...THUS
DID NOT MENTION. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT
WILL PROVIDE FOR VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 06/12Z. LIGHT SW SFC
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BNA/CKV THRU 06/12Z. LIGHT NLY SFC WINDS ARE
EXPECTED CSV THRU 06/00Z...WITH A TRANSITION TO AT LEAST W AS
06/12Z APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VRB WINDS.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........31
LONG TERM..................21



000
FXUS64 KOHX 051127
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
527 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SOME PASSING PATCHES OF BKN CI MAYBE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER
06/00Z...BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT AVIATION OPERATIONS...THUS
DID NOT MENTION. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT
WILL PROVIDE FOR VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 06/12Z. LIGHT SW SFC
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BNA/CKV THRU 06/12Z. LIGHT NLY SFC WINDS ARE
EXPECTED CSV THRU 06/00Z...WITH A TRANSITION TO AT LEAST W AS
06/12Z APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VRB WINDS.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........31
LONG TERM..................21



000
FXUS64 KOHX 051127
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
527 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SOME PASSING PATCHES OF BKN CI MAYBE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER
06/00Z...BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT AVIATION OPERATIONS...THUS
DID NOT MENTION. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT
WILL PROVIDE FOR VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 06/12Z. LIGHT SW SFC
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BNA/CKV THRU 06/12Z. LIGHT NLY SFC WINDS ARE
EXPECTED CSV THRU 06/00Z...WITH A TRANSITION TO AT LEAST W AS
06/12Z APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VRB WINDS.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........31
LONG TERM..................21




000
FXUS64 KOHX 050926
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
326 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY THRU SUNDAY)

SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC STATES THIS MORNING.
IN ITS WAKE...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TRAVERSE OUR AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...850 MB TEMPS WONT RECOVER TOO MUCH AS A SLOWLY
MODIFYING CANADIAN ZONE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES. LOOK FOR
PARTIAL CLOUDINESS TO RETURN IN THE AFTERNOON SO HIGH TEMPS WILL
WARM ONLY INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 FOR MOST AREAS. ANOTHER
SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AS JUST PARTIAL CLOUDINESS COMBINES
WITH HIGH PRESSURE THAT STILL REMAINS BASICALLY IN CONTROL.

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
THE AXIS WILL CLEAR OUR AREA BY AFTERNOON AND WE WILL SEE PARTIAL
CLOUDINESS BEGIN TO TREND TOWARD MOSTLY CLEAR.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS A DEVELOPING UPPER
TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED CANADIAN COLD FRONT BEGIN TO GAIN
STRENGTH UPSTREAM. LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...
(MON THRU THU)

GENERALLY...DO NOT LIKE TO MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST ON A MIDNIGHT SHIFT PER LIMITED FORECAST
TIME ALLOWANCE ALONG WITH AN OVERALL BETTER SUITE OF FORECAST
PRODUCTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...AND THAT WILL BE THE OVERALL
BASIS FOR THE FORECAST REASONING HERE. WHAT LEADS TO THE ABOVE
STATEMENT IS A EARLY MORNING QUANDARY CENTERING AROUND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EVENT ACROSS LOCATIONS
GENERALLY ALONG AND E OF THE I-24 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE PLATEAU REGION. LATEST WPC GUIDANCE LOWERING THE POTENTIAL OF
AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EVENT ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...CAN
NOT DISMISS THE POTENTIAL...PER THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS...SHOWING SUCH A DIGGING DEEP BROAD UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE ERN U.S. PER PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...WITH
A POTENTIAL SERIES OF CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND ITS BASE AFFECTING THE MID STATE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE NRN
HIGHLAND RIM AND UPPER CUMBERLAND REGIONS MON THRU AT LEAST TUE
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SHOWING A LIKELY RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE PLATEAU
COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING HRS ON MON...MORE OF A CHANCE SCENARIO
FOR LOCATIONS TO ITS W...TRANSITIONING TO LIKELY RAIN ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...CHANCE RAIN ELSEWHERE...CONSENSUS
OF 00Z 02/05 MODEL GUIDANCE POPS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THOSE FROM
PREVIOUS 12Z 02/04Z RUN. HOWEVER...LATEST GFS SOLUTIONS CONTINUING
TO STILL SHOW POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN HIGHLAND RIM AND PLATEAU COUNTIES. OTHER THAN A WEAK SFC
TROUGH MOVING THRU THE AREA ON TUE...NO REAL SUPPORTIVE SFC FEATURE
OF NOTE FOR WINTRY WX EXPECTED...OTHER THAN...OF COURSE...AN ADVECTING
COLD CANADIAN BASED AIR MASS MOVING INTO OUR REGION. THIS BROAD
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH E OF THE REGION AS
WED PROGRESSES...AND DESPITE CONTINUANCE OF PROGRESSIVE NWLY FLOW
ALOFT DUE TO AMPLIFIED RIDGING ACROSS WRN U.S./WRN CANADA...BRUNT
OF SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES ADVECTING IN FROM OUR NORTH WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID STATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS.

AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER A MONDAY...WITH TEMPS 5 TO AS MUCH AS 10
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
TO AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES BY TUE AFTERNOON...
AS HIGHS ARE GENERALLY ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S BOTH TUE AND WED MORNINGS...WITH UPPER TEENS
POSSIBLE PLATEAU...AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES
ACROSS THIS NECK OF THE WOODS. DESPITE A SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR LOWS
EXPECTED WED MORNING...SOME MODIFICATION OF THE COLD CANADIAN BASED
AIR MASS WILL OCCUR AS IT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE MID STATE REGION AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES WED AND INTO THU...WITH A RETURN TO TEMPS CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES EXPECTED BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VRB WINDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      49  29  52  33  55 /   0   0  10   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    47  28  52  33  54 /   0   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     42  24  48  29  50 /   0   0  10   0   0
COLUMBIA       49  29  50  31  54 /   0   0  10   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   48  29  50  30  53 /   0   0  10   0   0
WAVERLY        47  29  52  33  54 /   0   0  10   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........31
LONG TERM..................21




000
FXUS64 KMEG 050908
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
308 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTH INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLEAR
SKIES ARE PREVALENT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 AM CST IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ANOTHER DAY OF PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S
AT MANY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH THE COOLEST READINGS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SHORT TERM MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT OVERALL INTO
THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO A
CONTINUATION OF PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THRUOGH
SUNDAY.

00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS STILL INDICATE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DIVE FROM CANADA INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TO THE MID
SOUTH ALONG WITH ARCTIC AIR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN TO MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW INTO MONDAY MONDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. SOME QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN WITH
THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST BEST MOISTURE REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE MID
SOUTH. NONETHELESS...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES NEXT TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH 40 DEGREES BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

VFR TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 050908
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
308 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTH INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLEAR
SKIES ARE PREVALENT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 AM CST IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ANOTHER DAY OF PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S
AT MANY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH THE COOLEST READINGS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SHORT TERM MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT OVERALL INTO
THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO A
CONTINUATION OF PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THRUOGH
SUNDAY.

00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS STILL INDICATE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DIVE FROM CANADA INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TO THE MID
SOUTH ALONG WITH ARCTIC AIR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN TO MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW INTO MONDAY MONDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. SOME QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN WITH
THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST BEST MOISTURE REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE MID
SOUTH. NONETHELESS...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES NEXT TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH 40 DEGREES BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

VFR TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 050908
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
308 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTH INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLEAR
SKIES ARE PREVALENT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 AM CST IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ANOTHER DAY OF PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S
AT MANY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH THE COOLEST READINGS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SHORT TERM MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT OVERALL INTO
THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO A
CONTINUATION OF PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THRUOGH
SUNDAY.

00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS STILL INDICATE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DIVE FROM CANADA INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TO THE MID
SOUTH ALONG WITH ARCTIC AIR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN TO MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW INTO MONDAY MONDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. SOME QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN WITH
THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST BEST MOISTURE REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE MID
SOUTH. NONETHELESS...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES NEXT TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH 40 DEGREES BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

VFR TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




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