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000
FXUS64 KMRX 280727
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
327 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SURFACE RIDGE HOLDING FOR TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT...ALTHO THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. A
LIGHT SE TO S LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY BE ESTABLISHED BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING...BUT DON`T EXPECT ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR MORE
THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM. OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
TODAY WITH MINS VERY MUCH NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT. CLOSELY FOLLOWED THE
GFS MOS TEMPS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...OVERALL PATTERN IS CHANGING
AS A MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SATURDAY THE BEST CHANCE IS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS BUT MOSTLY DRY NORTHEAST. AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY THEN SLIGHTLY LESS CHANCES MONDAY.
FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER
NORTHEAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE BUT WITH MOISTURE MOVING NORTH
FROM ERIKA ALONG THE EAST COAST THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH AFTER MONDAY AS THE TRACK OF
ERIKA FARTHER EAST WOULD LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY DRY BEING
MORE INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EXCEPT ONLY LOWER 80S SUNDAY WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             87  68  86  69 /  10  10  30  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  85  67  86  66 /  10  10  20  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       86  66  85  67 /  10  10  20  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  59  84  62 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG/TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 280727
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
327 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SURFACE RIDGE HOLDING FOR TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT...ALTHO THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. A
LIGHT SE TO S LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY BE ESTABLISHED BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING...BUT DON`T EXPECT ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR MORE
THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM. OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
TODAY WITH MINS VERY MUCH NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT. CLOSELY FOLLOWED THE
GFS MOS TEMPS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...OVERALL PATTERN IS CHANGING
AS A MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SATURDAY THE BEST CHANCE IS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS BUT MOSTLY DRY NORTHEAST. AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY THEN SLIGHTLY LESS CHANCES MONDAY.
FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER
NORTHEAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE BUT WITH MOISTURE MOVING NORTH
FROM ERIKA ALONG THE EAST COAST THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH AFTER MONDAY AS THE TRACK OF
ERIKA FARTHER EAST WOULD LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY DRY BEING
MORE INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EXCEPT ONLY LOWER 80S SUNDAY WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             87  68  86  69 /  10  10  30  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  85  67  86  66 /  10  10  20  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       86  66  85  67 /  10  10  20  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  59  84  62 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG/TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 280727
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
327 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SURFACE RIDGE HOLDING FOR TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT...ALTHO THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. A
LIGHT SE TO S LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY BE ESTABLISHED BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING...BUT DON`T EXPECT ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR MORE
THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM. OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
TODAY WITH MINS VERY MUCH NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT. CLOSELY FOLLOWED THE
GFS MOS TEMPS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...OVERALL PATTERN IS CHANGING
AS A MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SATURDAY THE BEST CHANCE IS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS BUT MOSTLY DRY NORTHEAST. AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY THEN SLIGHTLY LESS CHANCES MONDAY.
FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER
NORTHEAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE BUT WITH MOISTURE MOVING NORTH
FROM ERIKA ALONG THE EAST COAST THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH AFTER MONDAY AS THE TRACK OF
ERIKA FARTHER EAST WOULD LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY DRY BEING
MORE INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EXCEPT ONLY LOWER 80S SUNDAY WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             87  68  86  69 /  10  10  30  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  85  67  86  66 /  10  10  20  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       86  66  85  67 /  10  10  20  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  59  84  62 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG/TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 280727
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
327 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SURFACE RIDGE HOLDING FOR TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT...ALTHO THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. A
LIGHT SE TO S LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY BE ESTABLISHED BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING...BUT DON`T EXPECT ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR MORE
THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM. OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
TODAY WITH MINS VERY MUCH NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT. CLOSELY FOLLOWED THE
GFS MOS TEMPS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...OVERALL PATTERN IS CHANGING
AS A MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SATURDAY THE BEST CHANCE IS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS BUT MOSTLY DRY NORTHEAST. AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY THEN SLIGHTLY LESS CHANCES MONDAY.
FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER
NORTHEAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE BUT WITH MOISTURE MOVING NORTH
FROM ERIKA ALONG THE EAST COAST THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH AFTER MONDAY AS THE TRACK OF
ERIKA FARTHER EAST WOULD LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY DRY BEING
MORE INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EXCEPT ONLY LOWER 80S SUNDAY WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             87  68  86  69 /  10  10  30  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  85  67  86  66 /  10  10  20  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       86  66  85  67 /  10  10  20  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  59  84  62 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG/TD



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOHX 280715
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
215 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST, BUT FINALLY POISED TO SHIFT EAST OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE TODAY, ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER,
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
INTENSIFIES AND BRINGS A SWATH OF MOISTURE OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE,
EVEN AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS AT THE SURFACE. LOOK FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY AFTER SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALOFT. MIDDLE TENNESSEE COULD BEGIN TO SEE
SOME EFFECTS FROM TS ERIKA TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON THE STORM TRACK. THE GFS
BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA ACROSS THE SOUTH AND INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS, WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE STORM OVER THE EAST COAST.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 7 DAYS TO STAY REASONABLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL. WE WON`S SEE A RETURN TO THE COOLER WEATHER WE HAVE
ENJOYED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      88  68  87  68 /   0  10  30  30
CLARKSVILLE    86  65  87  67 /   0   0  20  20
CROSSVILLE     81  64  81  65 /  10   0  30  40
COLUMBIA       87  66  86  66 /   0  10  30  30
LAWRENCEBURG   85  66  84  67 /   0   0  30  30
WAVERLY        86  66  87  67 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08




000
FXUS64 KMRX 280532
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
132 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE
BRIEF MVFR DUE TO FOG AT TRI. NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A VERY STRAY
SHOWER OR TSRA LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD BE MORE LIKELY OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND NOT NEAR A TAF SITE. SO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 280532
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
132 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE
BRIEF MVFR DUE TO FOG AT TRI. NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A VERY STRAY
SHOWER OR TSRA LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD BE MORE LIKELY OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND NOT NEAR A TAF SITE. SO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG



000
FXUS64 KMRX 280532
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
132 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE
BRIEF MVFR DUE TO FOG AT TRI. NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A VERY STRAY
SHOWER OR TSRA LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD BE MORE LIKELY OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND NOT NEAR A TAF SITE. SO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 280532
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
132 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE
BRIEF MVFR DUE TO FOG AT TRI. NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A VERY STRAY
SHOWER OR TSRA LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD BE MORE LIKELY OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND NOT NEAR A TAF SITE. SO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 280532
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
132 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE
BRIEF MVFR DUE TO FOG AT TRI. NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A VERY STRAY
SHOWER OR TSRA LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD BE MORE LIKELY OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND NOT NEAR A TAF SITE. SO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 280532
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
132 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE
BRIEF MVFR DUE TO FOG AT TRI. NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A VERY STRAY
SHOWER OR TSRA LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD BE MORE LIKELY OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND NOT NEAR A TAF SITE. SO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMEG 280442
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1142 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 954 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH AT
MIDEVENING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM NEAR 60 NEAR THE TN RIVER TO
THE 60S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE EXCEPTION WAS A 75
DEGREE READING AT THE MEMPHIS AIRPORT.

FORECAST WAS RECENTLY UPDATED TO DROP TEMPS OVER THE TN RIVER
VALLEY OF WEST TN...WHERE 9 PM TEMPS WERE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO
OF EARLIER FORECAST LOWS.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC WINDS TO TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL PRODUCE WARMER HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S.

AN UPPER TROF WILL PUSH IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN EASTERLY TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE
COMBINATION WILL PRODUCE A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
OVER CWA WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH AS DECENT SUBSIDENCE
WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA AS ERIKA MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
SIDE OF FLORIDA WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING OVER TEXAS.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

KRM



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO SE WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS AFTER 28/16Z THEN BECOME LIGHT AFTER
29/01Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 280442
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1142 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 954 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH AT
MIDEVENING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM NEAR 60 NEAR THE TN RIVER TO
THE 60S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE EXCEPTION WAS A 75
DEGREE READING AT THE MEMPHIS AIRPORT.

FORECAST WAS RECENTLY UPDATED TO DROP TEMPS OVER THE TN RIVER
VALLEY OF WEST TN...WHERE 9 PM TEMPS WERE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO
OF EARLIER FORECAST LOWS.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC WINDS TO TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL PRODUCE WARMER HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S.

AN UPPER TROF WILL PUSH IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN EASTERLY TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE
COMBINATION WILL PRODUCE A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
OVER CWA WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH AS DECENT SUBSIDENCE
WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA AS ERIKA MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
SIDE OF FLORIDA WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING OVER TEXAS.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

KRM



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO SE WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS AFTER 28/16Z THEN BECOME LIGHT AFTER
29/01Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 280439
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1139 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR VIS AT CKV AND
CSV IN THE 09Z TO 13Z WINDOW WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE
FALLEN BELOW 10 DEGREES AS OF 05Z. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING ABOUT 15Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05




000
FXUS64 KMEG 280254 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
954 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH AT
MIDEVENING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM NEAR 60 NEAR THE TN RIVER TO
THE 60S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE EXCEPTION WAS A 75
DEGREE READING AT THE MEMPHIS AIRPORT.

FORECAST WAS RECENTLY UPDATED TO DROP TEMPS OVER THE TN RIVER
VALLEY OF WEST TN...WHERE 9 PM TEMPS WERE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO
OF EARLIER FORECAST LOWS.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC WINDS TO TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL PRODUCE WARMER HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S.

AN UPPER TROF WILL PUSH IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN EASTERLY TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE
COMBINATION WILL PRODUCE A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
OVER CWA WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH AS DECENT SUBSIDENCE
WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA AS ERIKA MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
SIDE OF FLORIDA WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING OVER TEXAS.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NNE/NE WINDS
BETWEEN 7-10 KTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO 4 KTS OR LESS AND
VEER AND INCREASE TO SE WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS AFTER 28/16Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 280254 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
954 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH AT
MIDEVENING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM NEAR 60 NEAR THE TN RIVER TO
THE 60S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE EXCEPTION WAS A 75
DEGREE READING AT THE MEMPHIS AIRPORT.

FORECAST WAS RECENTLY UPDATED TO DROP TEMPS OVER THE TN RIVER
VALLEY OF WEST TN...WHERE 9 PM TEMPS WERE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO
OF EARLIER FORECAST LOWS.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC WINDS TO TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL PRODUCE WARMER HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S.

AN UPPER TROF WILL PUSH IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN EASTERLY TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE
COMBINATION WILL PRODUCE A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
OVER CWA WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH AS DECENT SUBSIDENCE
WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA AS ERIKA MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
SIDE OF FLORIDA WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING OVER TEXAS.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NNE/NE WINDS
BETWEEN 7-10 KTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO 4 KTS OR LESS AND
VEER AND INCREASE TO SE WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS AFTER 28/16Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 280254 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
954 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH AT
MIDEVENING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM NEAR 60 NEAR THE TN RIVER TO
THE 60S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE EXCEPTION WAS A 75
DEGREE READING AT THE MEMPHIS AIRPORT.

FORECAST WAS RECENTLY UPDATED TO DROP TEMPS OVER THE TN RIVER
VALLEY OF WEST TN...WHERE 9 PM TEMPS WERE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO
OF EARLIER FORECAST LOWS.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC WINDS TO TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL PRODUCE WARMER HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S.

AN UPPER TROF WILL PUSH IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN EASTERLY TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE
COMBINATION WILL PRODUCE A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
OVER CWA WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH AS DECENT SUBSIDENCE
WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA AS ERIKA MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
SIDE OF FLORIDA WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING OVER TEXAS.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NNE/NE WINDS
BETWEEN 7-10 KTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO 4 KTS OR LESS AND
VEER AND INCREASE TO SE WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS AFTER 28/16Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 280254 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
954 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH AT
MIDEVENING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM NEAR 60 NEAR THE TN RIVER TO
THE 60S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE EXCEPTION WAS A 75
DEGREE READING AT THE MEMPHIS AIRPORT.

FORECAST WAS RECENTLY UPDATED TO DROP TEMPS OVER THE TN RIVER
VALLEY OF WEST TN...WHERE 9 PM TEMPS WERE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO
OF EARLIER FORECAST LOWS.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC WINDS TO TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL PRODUCE WARMER HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S.

AN UPPER TROF WILL PUSH IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN EASTERLY TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE
COMBINATION WILL PRODUCE A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
OVER CWA WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH AS DECENT SUBSIDENCE
WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA AS ERIKA MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
SIDE OF FLORIDA WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING OVER TEXAS.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NNE/NE WINDS
BETWEEN 7-10 KTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO 4 KTS OR LESS AND
VEER AND INCREASE TO SE WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS AFTER 28/16Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 280155
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
855 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES AND AIR MASS REMAINS DRY WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
BASED AROUND 800 MBARS. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SOME LATE NIGHT FOG LOOKS POSSIBLE
ALONG LAKES AND RIVERS. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&



.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01



000
FXUS64 KOHX 280155
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
855 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES AND AIR MASS REMAINS DRY WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
BASED AROUND 800 MBARS. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SOME LATE NIGHT FOG LOOKS POSSIBLE
ALONG LAKES AND RIVERS. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&



.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01




000
FXUS64 KOHX 280155
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
855 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES AND AIR MASS REMAINS DRY WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
BASED AROUND 800 MBARS. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SOME LATE NIGHT FOG LOOKS POSSIBLE
ALONG LAKES AND RIVERS. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&



.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01




000
FXUS64 KOHX 280155
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
855 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES AND AIR MASS REMAINS DRY WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
BASED AROUND 800 MBARS. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SOME LATE NIGHT FOG LOOKS POSSIBLE
ALONG LAKES AND RIVERS. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&



.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01




000
FXUS64 KOHX 280155
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
855 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES AND AIR MASS REMAINS DRY WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
BASED AROUND 800 MBARS. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SOME LATE NIGHT FOG LOOKS POSSIBLE
ALONG LAKES AND RIVERS. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&



.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01




000
FXUS64 KOHX 280155
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
855 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES AND AIR MASS REMAINS DRY WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
BASED AROUND 800 MBARS. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SOME LATE NIGHT FOG LOOKS POSSIBLE
ALONG LAKES AND RIVERS. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&



.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01




000
FXUS64 KMRX 280044 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
844 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROMOTE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE VALLEY...WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVER THE MOUNTAINS /ALONG WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/. THESE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS
LATE TONIGHT ALONG AREA LAKES AND RIVERS...AND SOME ADDITIONAL
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER RETURNS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF WITH THE SETTING SUN...BUT SHOULD BE
A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. STILL...THE DRY CONDITIONS
WILL MAKE FOR A COMFORTABLE NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             65  87  68  86 /   0  10  10  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  85  67  85 /   0  10  10  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       63  85  66  85 /   0  10  10  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              59  83  60  84 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 272328 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
728 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THIS EVENING AND MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME LIGHT
MVFR TO IFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KTRI EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT A QUICK RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AND
LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 272328 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
728 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THIS EVENING AND MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME LIGHT
MVFR TO IFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KTRI EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT A QUICK RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AND
LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP



000
FXUS64 KMRX 272328 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
728 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THIS EVENING AND MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME LIGHT
MVFR TO IFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KTRI EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT A QUICK RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AND
LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 272328 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
728 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THIS EVENING AND MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME LIGHT
MVFR TO IFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KTRI EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT A QUICK RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AND
LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 272328 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
728 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THIS EVENING AND MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME LIGHT
MVFR TO IFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KTRI EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT A QUICK RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AND
LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 272328 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
728 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THIS EVENING AND MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME LIGHT
MVFR TO IFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KTRI EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT A QUICK RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AND
LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KOHX 272327
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
627 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR VIS REDUCTION AT CKV AND CSV IN THE
09Z TO 13Z WINDOW WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THIS EVENING. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST BUT REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05



000
FXUS64 KOHX 272327
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
627 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR VIS REDUCTION AT CKV AND CSV IN THE
09Z TO 13Z WINDOW WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THIS EVENING. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST BUT REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05



000
FXUS64 KOHX 272327
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
627 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR VIS REDUCTION AT CKV AND CSV IN THE
09Z TO 13Z WINDOW WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THIS EVENING. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST BUT REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05



000
FXUS64 KOHX 272327
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
627 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR VIS REDUCTION AT CKV AND CSV IN THE
09Z TO 13Z WINDOW WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THIS EVENING. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST BUT REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05



000
FXUS64 KOHX 272327
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
627 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR VIS REDUCTION AT CKV AND CSV IN THE
09Z TO 13Z WINDOW WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THIS EVENING. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST BUT REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05



000
FXUS64 KMEG 272309 CCA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
609 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC WINDS TO TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL PRODUCE WARMER HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S.

AN UPPER TROF WILL PUSH IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN EASTERLY TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE
COMBINATION WILL PRODUCE A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
OVER CWA WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH AS DECENT SUBSIDENCE
WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA AS ERIKA MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
SIDE OF FLORIDA WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING OVER TEXAS.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NNE/NE WINDS
BETWEEN 7-10 KTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO 4 KTS OR LESS AND
VEER AND INCREASE TO SE WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS AFTER 28/16Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 272309
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
609 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC WINDS TO TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL PRODUCE WARMER HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S.

AN UPPER TROF WILL PUSH IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN EASTERLY TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE
COMBINATION WILL PRODUCE A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
OVER CWA WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH AS DECENT SUBSIDENCE
WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA AS ERIKA MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
SIDE OF FLORIDA WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING OVER TEXAS.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS NNE/NE WINDS
BETWEEN 7-10 KTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO 4 KTS OR LESS AND
INCREASE TO 6-9 KTS AFTER 28/16Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 272309
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
609 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC WINDS TO TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL PRODUCE WARMER HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S.

AN UPPER TROF WILL PUSH IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN EASTERLY TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE
COMBINATION WILL PRODUCE A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
OVER CWA WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH AS DECENT SUBSIDENCE
WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA AS ERIKA MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
SIDE OF FLORIDA WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING OVER TEXAS.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS NNE/NE WINDS
BETWEEN 7-10 KTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO 4 KTS OR LESS AND
INCREASE TO 6-9 KTS AFTER 28/16Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 272309 CCA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
609 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC WINDS TO TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL PRODUCE WARMER HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S.

AN UPPER TROF WILL PUSH IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN EASTERLY TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE
COMBINATION WILL PRODUCE A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
OVER CWA WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH AS DECENT SUBSIDENCE
WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA AS ERIKA MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
SIDE OF FLORIDA WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING OVER TEXAS.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NNE/NE WINDS
BETWEEN 7-10 KTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO 4 KTS OR LESS AND
VEER AND INCREASE TO SE WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS AFTER 28/16Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 272309 CCA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
609 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC WINDS TO TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL PRODUCE WARMER HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S.

AN UPPER TROF WILL PUSH IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN EASTERLY TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE
COMBINATION WILL PRODUCE A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
OVER CWA WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH AS DECENT SUBSIDENCE
WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA AS ERIKA MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
SIDE OF FLORIDA WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING OVER TEXAS.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NNE/NE WINDS
BETWEEN 7-10 KTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO 4 KTS OR LESS AND
VEER AND INCREASE TO SE WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS AFTER 28/16Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 272309 CCA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
609 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC WINDS TO TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL PRODUCE WARMER HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S.

AN UPPER TROF WILL PUSH IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN EASTERLY TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE
COMBINATION WILL PRODUCE A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
OVER CWA WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH AS DECENT SUBSIDENCE
WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA AS ERIKA MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
SIDE OF FLORIDA WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING OVER TEXAS.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NNE/NE WINDS
BETWEEN 7-10 KTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO 4 KTS OR LESS AND
VEER AND INCREASE TO SE WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS AFTER 28/16Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 272309 CCA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
609 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC WINDS TO TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL PRODUCE WARMER HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S.

AN UPPER TROF WILL PUSH IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN EASTERLY TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE
COMBINATION WILL PRODUCE A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
OVER CWA WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH AS DECENT SUBSIDENCE
WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA AS ERIKA MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
SIDE OF FLORIDA WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING OVER TEXAS.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NNE/NE WINDS
BETWEEN 7-10 KTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO 4 KTS OR LESS AND
VEER AND INCREASE TO SE WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS AFTER 28/16Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 272309
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
609 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC WINDS TO TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL PRODUCE WARMER HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S.

AN UPPER TROF WILL PUSH IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN EASTERLY TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE
COMBINATION WILL PRODUCE A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
OVER CWA WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH AS DECENT SUBSIDENCE
WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA AS ERIKA MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
SIDE OF FLORIDA WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING OVER TEXAS.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS NNE/NE WINDS
BETWEEN 7-10 KTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO 4 KTS OR LESS AND
INCREASE TO 6-9 KTS AFTER 28/16Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 272309
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
609 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC WINDS TO TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL PRODUCE WARMER HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S.

AN UPPER TROF WILL PUSH IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN EASTERLY TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE
COMBINATION WILL PRODUCE A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
OVER CWA WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH AS DECENT SUBSIDENCE
WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA AS ERIKA MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
SIDE OF FLORIDA WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING OVER TEXAS.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS NNE/NE WINDS
BETWEEN 7-10 KTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO 4 KTS OR LESS AND
INCREASE TO 6-9 KTS AFTER 28/16Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 272058
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
358 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT THRU MORNING HRS
ON FRI...CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
POTENTIAL OF ANY IMPACTS FROM TS ERIKA...TEMPS.

ALL IN ALL...WITH SOME TWEAKS HERE AND THERE...CONTINUED WITH THE OVERALL
PHILOSOPHY OF THE MORNING SUITES OF FORECAST PRODUCT PACKAGE. JUST LIKE
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH CLR SKIES...EXPECTED CONSENSUS SHORT TERM MODELS
FAVORABLE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...USUAL FOG FORMATION PRONE LOCATIONS MAINLY
NEAR BODIES OF WATER AND POSSIBLY THE ELEVATED VALLEYS OF THE PLATEAU
REGION COULD EXPERIENCE PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THRU THE EARLY MORNING
HRS ON FRI. OTHERWISE...EXPECT BRUNT OF SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES TO CONTINUE
SHIFTING EWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND AREA THRU NEXT WORK
WEEK. ALOFT...EXPECT A BROAD...AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AT TIMES...UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THRU AT LEAST TUE OF NEXT
WORK WEEK...UNTIL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. MID STATE SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND EXPERIENCE MAINLY
MOCLR SKIES THRU FRI NIGHT. AS AN ENHANCEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
DYNAMICS TAKES PLACE SAT INTO SUN...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBLE WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSAGES IN FLOW ALOFT/DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...AND ATM MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE SE TO
NW ACROSS THE MID STATE...CONTINUED TO MENTION ISO SHWRS/TSTMS...SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS PLATEAU PER OROGRAPHIC DIURNAL INFLUENCES...BY SAT AFTERNOON...
KEEP ISO SHWRS/TSTMS POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MID STATE SAT NIGHT...WITH
SCT SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED ON SUN PER BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POTENTIAL
AND UPPER LEVEL BROAD TROUGHING DYNAMICS. EXPECT A TRANSITION FROM UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING DYNAMICS TO MORE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
PATTERN AS NEXT WORK WEEK PROGRESSES. ISO SHWRS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HRS MON..TUE..AND
THU...WITH CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTIONS ADVERTISING ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO
POSSIBLE SUPPRESS CONVECTION TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT.

AS FOR TS ERIKA POSSIBLE INFLUENCE ON THE MID STATE BY THE MID PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION TRACKS...
WILL TREND TOWARD MORNING AFD REASONING CONTINUING TO KEEP THE MID STATE
GENERALLY DRY UNDER PTCDLY SKIES. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, WHEN AN ORGANIZED
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES UP THE SE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...MUCH OF THE MID STATE
ENDS UP IN THE OUTER FRINGE SUBSIDENCE AREA...AND THIS LOOKS AT LEAST SOMEWHAT
LIKELY AT THIS TIME OF WHAT THE ACTUAL WX PATTERN INFLUENCE WILL BE ACROSS
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.

AS FOR TEMPS...ANOTHER COOL NIGHT SHOULD BE IN STORE FOR MID STATE...WITH
LOWS TONIGHT MAYBE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO SFC RIDGING
INFLUENCES BEGINNING TO DRIFT EWD. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THIS BEING ON SUN DUE TO SCT SHWR/TSTM POTENTIAL. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES AS NEXT WORK WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      61  87  67  89 /   0   0  10  20
CLARKSVILLE    56  86  65  88 /   0   0   0  20
CROSSVILLE     59  81  63  82 /   0  10  10  30
COLUMBIA       58  87  65  89 /   0   0   0  20
LAWRENCEBURG   60  85  65  87 /   0   0   0  20
WAVERLY        58  86  66  88 /   0   0   0  20
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31



000
FXUS64 KOHX 272058
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
358 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT THRU MORNING HRS
ON FRI...CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
POTENTIAL OF ANY IMPACTS FROM TS ERIKA...TEMPS.

ALL IN ALL...WITH SOME TWEAKS HERE AND THERE...CONTINUED WITH THE OVERALL
PHILOSOPHY OF THE MORNING SUITES OF FORECAST PRODUCT PACKAGE. JUST LIKE
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH CLR SKIES...EXPECTED CONSENSUS SHORT TERM MODELS
FAVORABLE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...USUAL FOG FORMATION PRONE LOCATIONS MAINLY
NEAR BODIES OF WATER AND POSSIBLY THE ELEVATED VALLEYS OF THE PLATEAU
REGION COULD EXPERIENCE PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THRU THE EARLY MORNING
HRS ON FRI. OTHERWISE...EXPECT BRUNT OF SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES TO CONTINUE
SHIFTING EWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND AREA THRU NEXT WORK
WEEK. ALOFT...EXPECT A BROAD...AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AT TIMES...UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THRU AT LEAST TUE OF NEXT
WORK WEEK...UNTIL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. MID STATE SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND EXPERIENCE MAINLY
MOCLR SKIES THRU FRI NIGHT. AS AN ENHANCEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
DYNAMICS TAKES PLACE SAT INTO SUN...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBLE WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSAGES IN FLOW ALOFT/DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...AND ATM MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE SE TO
NW ACROSS THE MID STATE...CONTINUED TO MENTION ISO SHWRS/TSTMS...SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS PLATEAU PER OROGRAPHIC DIURNAL INFLUENCES...BY SAT AFTERNOON...
KEEP ISO SHWRS/TSTMS POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MID STATE SAT NIGHT...WITH
SCT SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED ON SUN PER BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POTENTIAL
AND UPPER LEVEL BROAD TROUGHING DYNAMICS. EXPECT A TRANSITION FROM UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING DYNAMICS TO MORE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
PATTERN AS NEXT WORK WEEK PROGRESSES. ISO SHWRS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HRS MON..TUE..AND
THU...WITH CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTIONS ADVERTISING ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO
POSSIBLE SUPPRESS CONVECTION TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT.

AS FOR TS ERIKA POSSIBLE INFLUENCE ON THE MID STATE BY THE MID PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION TRACKS...
WILL TREND TOWARD MORNING AFD REASONING CONTINUING TO KEEP THE MID STATE
GENERALLY DRY UNDER PTCDLY SKIES. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, WHEN AN ORGANIZED
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES UP THE SE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...MUCH OF THE MID STATE
ENDS UP IN THE OUTER FRINGE SUBSIDENCE AREA...AND THIS LOOKS AT LEAST SOMEWHAT
LIKELY AT THIS TIME OF WHAT THE ACTUAL WX PATTERN INFLUENCE WILL BE ACROSS
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.

AS FOR TEMPS...ANOTHER COOL NIGHT SHOULD BE IN STORE FOR MID STATE...WITH
LOWS TONIGHT MAYBE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO SFC RIDGING
INFLUENCES BEGINNING TO DRIFT EWD. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THIS BEING ON SUN DUE TO SCT SHWR/TSTM POTENTIAL. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES AS NEXT WORK WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      61  87  67  89 /   0   0  10  20
CLARKSVILLE    56  86  65  88 /   0   0   0  20
CROSSVILLE     59  81  63  82 /   0  10  10  30
COLUMBIA       58  87  65  89 /   0   0   0  20
LAWRENCEBURG   60  85  65  87 /   0   0   0  20
WAVERLY        58  86  66  88 /   0   0   0  20
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31




000
FXUS64 KOHX 272058
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
358 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT THRU MORNING HRS
ON FRI...CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
POTENTIAL OF ANY IMPACTS FROM TS ERIKA...TEMPS.

ALL IN ALL...WITH SOME TWEAKS HERE AND THERE...CONTINUED WITH THE OVERALL
PHILOSOPHY OF THE MORNING SUITES OF FORECAST PRODUCT PACKAGE. JUST LIKE
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH CLR SKIES...EXPECTED CONSENSUS SHORT TERM MODELS
FAVORABLE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...USUAL FOG FORMATION PRONE LOCATIONS MAINLY
NEAR BODIES OF WATER AND POSSIBLY THE ELEVATED VALLEYS OF THE PLATEAU
REGION COULD EXPERIENCE PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THRU THE EARLY MORNING
HRS ON FRI. OTHERWISE...EXPECT BRUNT OF SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES TO CONTINUE
SHIFTING EWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND AREA THRU NEXT WORK
WEEK. ALOFT...EXPECT A BROAD...AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AT TIMES...UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THRU AT LEAST TUE OF NEXT
WORK WEEK...UNTIL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. MID STATE SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND EXPERIENCE MAINLY
MOCLR SKIES THRU FRI NIGHT. AS AN ENHANCEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
DYNAMICS TAKES PLACE SAT INTO SUN...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBLE WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSAGES IN FLOW ALOFT/DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...AND ATM MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE SE TO
NW ACROSS THE MID STATE...CONTINUED TO MENTION ISO SHWRS/TSTMS...SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS PLATEAU PER OROGRAPHIC DIURNAL INFLUENCES...BY SAT AFTERNOON...
KEEP ISO SHWRS/TSTMS POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MID STATE SAT NIGHT...WITH
SCT SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED ON SUN PER BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POTENTIAL
AND UPPER LEVEL BROAD TROUGHING DYNAMICS. EXPECT A TRANSITION FROM UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING DYNAMICS TO MORE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
PATTERN AS NEXT WORK WEEK PROGRESSES. ISO SHWRS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HRS MON..TUE..AND
THU...WITH CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTIONS ADVERTISING ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO
POSSIBLE SUPPRESS CONVECTION TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT.

AS FOR TS ERIKA POSSIBLE INFLUENCE ON THE MID STATE BY THE MID PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION TRACKS...
WILL TREND TOWARD MORNING AFD REASONING CONTINUING TO KEEP THE MID STATE
GENERALLY DRY UNDER PTCDLY SKIES. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, WHEN AN ORGANIZED
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES UP THE SE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...MUCH OF THE MID STATE
ENDS UP IN THE OUTER FRINGE SUBSIDENCE AREA...AND THIS LOOKS AT LEAST SOMEWHAT
LIKELY AT THIS TIME OF WHAT THE ACTUAL WX PATTERN INFLUENCE WILL BE ACROSS
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.

AS FOR TEMPS...ANOTHER COOL NIGHT SHOULD BE IN STORE FOR MID STATE...WITH
LOWS TONIGHT MAYBE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO SFC RIDGING
INFLUENCES BEGINNING TO DRIFT EWD. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THIS BEING ON SUN DUE TO SCT SHWR/TSTM POTENTIAL. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES AS NEXT WORK WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      61  87  67  89 /   0   0  10  20
CLARKSVILLE    56  86  65  88 /   0   0   0  20
CROSSVILLE     59  81  63  82 /   0  10  10  30
COLUMBIA       58  87  65  89 /   0   0   0  20
LAWRENCEBURG   60  85  65  87 /   0   0   0  20
WAVERLY        58  86  66  88 /   0   0   0  20
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31



000
FXUS64 KOHX 272058
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
358 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT THRU MORNING HRS
ON FRI...CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
POTENTIAL OF ANY IMPACTS FROM TS ERIKA...TEMPS.

ALL IN ALL...WITH SOME TWEAKS HERE AND THERE...CONTINUED WITH THE OVERALL
PHILOSOPHY OF THE MORNING SUITES OF FORECAST PRODUCT PACKAGE. JUST LIKE
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH CLR SKIES...EXPECTED CONSENSUS SHORT TERM MODELS
FAVORABLE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...USUAL FOG FORMATION PRONE LOCATIONS MAINLY
NEAR BODIES OF WATER AND POSSIBLY THE ELEVATED VALLEYS OF THE PLATEAU
REGION COULD EXPERIENCE PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THRU THE EARLY MORNING
HRS ON FRI. OTHERWISE...EXPECT BRUNT OF SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES TO CONTINUE
SHIFTING EWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND AREA THRU NEXT WORK
WEEK. ALOFT...EXPECT A BROAD...AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AT TIMES...UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THRU AT LEAST TUE OF NEXT
WORK WEEK...UNTIL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. MID STATE SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND EXPERIENCE MAINLY
MOCLR SKIES THRU FRI NIGHT. AS AN ENHANCEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
DYNAMICS TAKES PLACE SAT INTO SUN...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBLE WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSAGES IN FLOW ALOFT/DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...AND ATM MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE SE TO
NW ACROSS THE MID STATE...CONTINUED TO MENTION ISO SHWRS/TSTMS...SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS PLATEAU PER OROGRAPHIC DIURNAL INFLUENCES...BY SAT AFTERNOON...
KEEP ISO SHWRS/TSTMS POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MID STATE SAT NIGHT...WITH
SCT SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED ON SUN PER BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POTENTIAL
AND UPPER LEVEL BROAD TROUGHING DYNAMICS. EXPECT A TRANSITION FROM UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING DYNAMICS TO MORE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
PATTERN AS NEXT WORK WEEK PROGRESSES. ISO SHWRS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HRS MON..TUE..AND
THU...WITH CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTIONS ADVERTISING ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO
POSSIBLE SUPPRESS CONVECTION TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT.

AS FOR TS ERIKA POSSIBLE INFLUENCE ON THE MID STATE BY THE MID PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION TRACKS...
WILL TREND TOWARD MORNING AFD REASONING CONTINUING TO KEEP THE MID STATE
GENERALLY DRY UNDER PTCDLY SKIES. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, WHEN AN ORGANIZED
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES UP THE SE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...MUCH OF THE MID STATE
ENDS UP IN THE OUTER FRINGE SUBSIDENCE AREA...AND THIS LOOKS AT LEAST SOMEWHAT
LIKELY AT THIS TIME OF WHAT THE ACTUAL WX PATTERN INFLUENCE WILL BE ACROSS
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.

AS FOR TEMPS...ANOTHER COOL NIGHT SHOULD BE IN STORE FOR MID STATE...WITH
LOWS TONIGHT MAYBE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO SFC RIDGING
INFLUENCES BEGINNING TO DRIFT EWD. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THIS BEING ON SUN DUE TO SCT SHWR/TSTM POTENTIAL. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES AS NEXT WORK WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      61  87  67  89 /   0   0  10  20
CLARKSVILLE    56  86  65  88 /   0   0   0  20
CROSSVILLE     59  81  63  82 /   0  10  10  30
COLUMBIA       58  87  65  89 /   0   0   0  20
LAWRENCEBURG   60  85  65  87 /   0   0   0  20
WAVERLY        58  86  66  88 /   0   0   0  20
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31




000
FXUS64 KMEG 271948
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
248 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC WINDS TO TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL PRODUCE WARMER HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S.

AN UPPER TROF WILL PUSH IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN EASTERLY TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE
COMBINATION WILL PRODUCE A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
OVER CWA WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH AS DECENT SUBSIDENCE
WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA AS ERIKA MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
SIDE OF FLORIDA WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING OVER TEXAS.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR. WINDS NE 8-10 KTS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 271948
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
248 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC WINDS TO TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL PRODUCE WARMER HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S.

AN UPPER TROF WILL PUSH IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN EASTERLY TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE
COMBINATION WILL PRODUCE A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
OVER CWA WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH AS DECENT SUBSIDENCE
WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA AS ERIKA MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
SIDE OF FLORIDA WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING OVER TEXAS.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR. WINDS NE 8-10 KTS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 271851
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
251 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WERE GENERALLY LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND
80S. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE
APPALACHIANS.

A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ON TAP ALONG WITH CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG THAT
DEVELOPS CLOSER TO SUNRISE IN PARTS OF SW NC AND SW VA AND NE TN.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A NEAR CARBON COPY OF TODAY...HOWEVER IT
WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER FOR ALL LOCATIONS. THERE COULD
STILL BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS
TOMORROW BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW.

.LONG TERM...(TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE DRY PATTERN WILL START SEEING CRACKS IN THE ARMOR STARTING AS
EARLY AS TOMORROW NIGHT AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS OUR AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ON SUNDAY.
MODELS START TO DIVERGE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND LINGERING
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. WILL STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ON AND OFF
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST, BUT OVERALL LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY
DRY FOR MOST PEOPLE MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             65  87  68  86 /   0  10  10  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  85  67  85 /   0  10  10  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       63  85  66  85 /   0  10  10  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              58  83  60  84 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC/ABM



000
FXUS64 KMRX 271851
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
251 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WERE GENERALLY LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND
80S. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE
APPALACHIANS.

A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ON TAP ALONG WITH CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG THAT
DEVELOPS CLOSER TO SUNRISE IN PARTS OF SW NC AND SW VA AND NE TN.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A NEAR CARBON COPY OF TODAY...HOWEVER IT
WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER FOR ALL LOCATIONS. THERE COULD
STILL BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS
TOMORROW BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW.

.LONG TERM...(TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE DRY PATTERN WILL START SEEING CRACKS IN THE ARMOR STARTING AS
EARLY AS TOMORROW NIGHT AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS OUR AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ON SUNDAY.
MODELS START TO DIVERGE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND LINGERING
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. WILL STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ON AND OFF
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST, BUT OVERALL LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY
DRY FOR MOST PEOPLE MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             65  87  68  86 /   0  10  10  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  85  67  85 /   0  10  10  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       63  85  66  85 /   0  10  10  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              58  83  60  84 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC/ABM




000
FXUS64 KMEG 271804
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
104 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. AS A
RESULT...THE MIDSOUTH IS EXPERIENCING ANOTHER PLEASANT MORNING.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO
UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S IN THE MEMPHIS METRO. A FEW MORE LOCATIONS WERE
OBSERVING A LIGHT NORTH WIND COMPARED TO THIS TIME LAST NIGHT.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VERY COMPARABLE TO
YESTERDAY. THOUGH THE GFS HAS BEEN NAILING THE LOW TEMPERATURES
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE COOLER NAM`S
STRONG RADIATIONAL AFFECTS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FIRST OF TWO WEATHER MAKERS...NOW
SEEN AS A WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE
GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD. THOUGH THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
POSITION AND INTENSITY...THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND LIFT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. THIS COUPLED
WITH DRIER AIR BELOW 800MB WILL LIKELY CAUSE MORE CLOUDS AND
MIDLEVEL VIRGA THAN ANYTHING FOR THE MIDSOUTH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST OUT OF
ALABAMA LATER THIS WEEKEND HELPING TO TRIGGER A STRAY DIURNAL
SHOWER OR STORM IN THE EAST...OTHERWISE MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

EXTENDED FORECAST...BETTER RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE
LATER NEXT WEEK...EVEN THOUGH MODELS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED WITH
REGARDS TO THE SECOND WEATHER MAKER...TS ERIKA. NOW THE GFS SHOWS
HER AS A MUCH STRONGER STORM CAUGHT UP IN THE GULF STREAM...WHILE
THE EURO IS WEAKER AND FARTHER WEST. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HOWEVER
KEEP A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH INCREASING
PW`S. FOR NOW CONVECTION COVERAGE APPEARS DIURNAL AND
ISOLATED...BUT ANY WESTWARD DEVIATION WITH ERIKA BEFORE OR AFTER
LANDFALL COULD CAUSE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY FOR OUR AREA.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR. WINDS NE 8-10 KTS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 271804
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
104 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. AS A
RESULT...THE MIDSOUTH IS EXPERIENCING ANOTHER PLEASANT MORNING.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO
UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S IN THE MEMPHIS METRO. A FEW MORE LOCATIONS WERE
OBSERVING A LIGHT NORTH WIND COMPARED TO THIS TIME LAST NIGHT.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VERY COMPARABLE TO
YESTERDAY. THOUGH THE GFS HAS BEEN NAILING THE LOW TEMPERATURES
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE COOLER NAM`S
STRONG RADIATIONAL AFFECTS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FIRST OF TWO WEATHER MAKERS...NOW
SEEN AS A WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE
GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD. THOUGH THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
POSITION AND INTENSITY...THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND LIFT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. THIS COUPLED
WITH DRIER AIR BELOW 800MB WILL LIKELY CAUSE MORE CLOUDS AND
MIDLEVEL VIRGA THAN ANYTHING FOR THE MIDSOUTH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST OUT OF
ALABAMA LATER THIS WEEKEND HELPING TO TRIGGER A STRAY DIURNAL
SHOWER OR STORM IN THE EAST...OTHERWISE MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

EXTENDED FORECAST...BETTER RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE
LATER NEXT WEEK...EVEN THOUGH MODELS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED WITH
REGARDS TO THE SECOND WEATHER MAKER...TS ERIKA. NOW THE GFS SHOWS
HER AS A MUCH STRONGER STORM CAUGHT UP IN THE GULF STREAM...WHILE
THE EURO IS WEAKER AND FARTHER WEST. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HOWEVER
KEEP A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH INCREASING
PW`S. FOR NOW CONVECTION COVERAGE APPEARS DIURNAL AND
ISOLATED...BUT ANY WESTWARD DEVIATION WITH ERIKA BEFORE OR AFTER
LANDFALL COULD CAUSE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY FOR OUR AREA.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR. WINDS NE 8-10 KTS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 271804
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
104 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. AS A
RESULT...THE MIDSOUTH IS EXPERIENCING ANOTHER PLEASANT MORNING.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO
UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S IN THE MEMPHIS METRO. A FEW MORE LOCATIONS WERE
OBSERVING A LIGHT NORTH WIND COMPARED TO THIS TIME LAST NIGHT.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VERY COMPARABLE TO
YESTERDAY. THOUGH THE GFS HAS BEEN NAILING THE LOW TEMPERATURES
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE COOLER NAM`S
STRONG RADIATIONAL AFFECTS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FIRST OF TWO WEATHER MAKERS...NOW
SEEN AS A WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE
GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD. THOUGH THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
POSITION AND INTENSITY...THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND LIFT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. THIS COUPLED
WITH DRIER AIR BELOW 800MB WILL LIKELY CAUSE MORE CLOUDS AND
MIDLEVEL VIRGA THAN ANYTHING FOR THE MIDSOUTH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST OUT OF
ALABAMA LATER THIS WEEKEND HELPING TO TRIGGER A STRAY DIURNAL
SHOWER OR STORM IN THE EAST...OTHERWISE MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

EXTENDED FORECAST...BETTER RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE
LATER NEXT WEEK...EVEN THOUGH MODELS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED WITH
REGARDS TO THE SECOND WEATHER MAKER...TS ERIKA. NOW THE GFS SHOWS
HER AS A MUCH STRONGER STORM CAUGHT UP IN THE GULF STREAM...WHILE
THE EURO IS WEAKER AND FARTHER WEST. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HOWEVER
KEEP A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH INCREASING
PW`S. FOR NOW CONVECTION COVERAGE APPEARS DIURNAL AND
ISOLATED...BUT ANY WESTWARD DEVIATION WITH ERIKA BEFORE OR AFTER
LANDFALL COULD CAUSE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY FOR OUR AREA.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR. WINDS NE 8-10 KTS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 271804
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
104 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. AS A
RESULT...THE MIDSOUTH IS EXPERIENCING ANOTHER PLEASANT MORNING.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO
UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S IN THE MEMPHIS METRO. A FEW MORE LOCATIONS WERE
OBSERVING A LIGHT NORTH WIND COMPARED TO THIS TIME LAST NIGHT.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VERY COMPARABLE TO
YESTERDAY. THOUGH THE GFS HAS BEEN NAILING THE LOW TEMPERATURES
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE COOLER NAM`S
STRONG RADIATIONAL AFFECTS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FIRST OF TWO WEATHER MAKERS...NOW
SEEN AS A WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE
GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD. THOUGH THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
POSITION AND INTENSITY...THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND LIFT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. THIS COUPLED
WITH DRIER AIR BELOW 800MB WILL LIKELY CAUSE MORE CLOUDS AND
MIDLEVEL VIRGA THAN ANYTHING FOR THE MIDSOUTH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST OUT OF
ALABAMA LATER THIS WEEKEND HELPING TO TRIGGER A STRAY DIURNAL
SHOWER OR STORM IN THE EAST...OTHERWISE MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

EXTENDED FORECAST...BETTER RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE
LATER NEXT WEEK...EVEN THOUGH MODELS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED WITH
REGARDS TO THE SECOND WEATHER MAKER...TS ERIKA. NOW THE GFS SHOWS
HER AS A MUCH STRONGER STORM CAUGHT UP IN THE GULF STREAM...WHILE
THE EURO IS WEAKER AND FARTHER WEST. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HOWEVER
KEEP A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH INCREASING
PW`S. FOR NOW CONVECTION COVERAGE APPEARS DIURNAL AND
ISOLATED...BUT ANY WESTWARD DEVIATION WITH ERIKA BEFORE OR AFTER
LANDFALL COULD CAUSE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY FOR OUR AREA.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR. WINDS NE 8-10 KTS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 271724
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
124 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS
OVERNIGHT MODELS HINTING AT FOG DEVELOPING AT KTRI AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH JUST AFTER SUNRISE. LOW CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING DUE TO
FOG NOT DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC




000
FXUS64 KMRX 271724
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
124 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS
OVERNIGHT MODELS HINTING AT FOG DEVELOPING AT KTRI AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH JUST AFTER SUNRISE. LOW CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING DUE TO
FOG NOT DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC




000
FXUS64 KMRX 271724
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
124 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS
OVERNIGHT MODELS HINTING AT FOG DEVELOPING AT KTRI AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH JUST AFTER SUNRISE. LOW CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING DUE TO
FOG NOT DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC




000
FXUS64 KMRX 271724
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
124 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS
OVERNIGHT MODELS HINTING AT FOG DEVELOPING AT KTRI AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH JUST AFTER SUNRISE. LOW CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING DUE TO
FOG NOT DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC




000
FXUS64 KMRX 271724
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
124 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS
OVERNIGHT MODELS HINTING AT FOG DEVELOPING AT KTRI AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH JUST AFTER SUNRISE. LOW CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING DUE TO
FOG NOT DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC



000
FXUS64 KOHX 271716
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1216 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
18Z TAFS...VFR EXPECTED NEAT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND DOWN INTO MID
TN. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NE 10G16KT TODAY...SETTLING TO
LESS THAN 05KT TONIGHT. BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY. THE ADDITIONAL HUMIDITY FROM THE SOUTH COULD
BRING PATCHY BR AROUND 28/12Z...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPDATE...ANOTHER VERY NICE...BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY IS UNDERWAY
ACROSS MID TN. UNDER SUNNY SKIES...TEMPS WILL TOP OUT 1-4 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. DEW POINTS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S WITH A
NE BREEZE NEAR 10 MPH.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...ENJOYING ONE LAST NICE COOL MORNING OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH LATE NIGHT TEMPS ONCE AGAIN DROPPING THROUGH THE
50S OVER MOST AREAS. AT 2AM, THE ONLY STATION WITH REPORTING AT
TEMP ABOVE 60 DEGS WAS THE HEAT ISLAND OF NASHVILLE.

WARMING TREND COMMENCES TODAY, AS UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR AREA
STARTS TO WEAKEN. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE MIDDLE 80S FURTHER
WEST.

SHORT TERM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MIGRATE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
FRIDAY. THIS BRING A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW TOMORROW,
ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE LIMITED OVER OUR AREA,
AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIP REMAINS CLOSE TO NIL.

RAIN CHANCE STARTS TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY, AS ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD EAST OF DIFFUSE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS (LOCATED NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR). THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, AND
WILL BE MAINLY OF THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING POP-UP
VARIETY.

BY SUNDAY, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE DEEPENED OVER ALL OF
MIDDLE TN, ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS, AND IT COULD MARK OUR BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

MAY MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMP FORECAST IN BOTH
THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM. SO, CURRENT GRID TEMPS MAY CHANGE A
BIT BETWEEN NOW AND 4 AM CDT. IF CHANGES ARE MADE, A NEW SUITE OF
PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED TO REFLECT THE ALTERATIONS.

LONG TERM...BY MONDAY MORNING, THE SOUTHERN PART OF WEAK UPPER
TROUGH (FROM TN, SOUTHWESTWARD) RETROGRADES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND BY TUESDAY CLIPS OFF INTO A CLOSED UPPER
SYSTEM. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM ERIKA, IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER,
IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR, OR OVER, NORTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND
THEN ENGAGE IN A RATHER SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC SEABOARD. TEND TO PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, WITH KEEPING THE WEAK UPPER LOW
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND "ERIKA" AS SEPARATE SYSTEMS, WITH
SEPARATE MOISTURE FIELDS, AND AN INTERVENING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

TYPICALLY, WHEN AN ORGANIZED TROPICAL SYSTEM SLIDES UP THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD, MUCH OF MIDDLE TN ENDS UP IN THE OUTER
FRINGE SUBSIDENCE AREA (UNLESS THE SYSTEM IS VERY BROAD). INDEED,
OMEGAS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOK RATHER PUNY FOR OUR
FA, AND HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE MAIN CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO OUR EASTERN AREAS, JUST IN CASE "ERIKA"
HAPPENS TO PUSH FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THE GFS
SOLUTION OF DEVELOPING A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE WESTWARD FROM
"ERIKA" DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD JUST DOESN`T LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS POINT. SO, WILL STICK WITH THE ECMWF IDEA FOR NOW.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 271716
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1216 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
18Z TAFS...VFR EXPECTED NEAT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND DOWN INTO MID
TN. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NE 10G16KT TODAY...SETTLING TO
LESS THAN 05KT TONIGHT. BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY. THE ADDITIONAL HUMIDITY FROM THE SOUTH COULD
BRING PATCHY BR AROUND 28/12Z...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPDATE...ANOTHER VERY NICE...BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY IS UNDERWAY
ACROSS MID TN. UNDER SUNNY SKIES...TEMPS WILL TOP OUT 1-4 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. DEW POINTS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S WITH A
NE BREEZE NEAR 10 MPH.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...ENJOYING ONE LAST NICE COOL MORNING OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH LATE NIGHT TEMPS ONCE AGAIN DROPPING THROUGH THE
50S OVER MOST AREAS. AT 2AM, THE ONLY STATION WITH REPORTING AT
TEMP ABOVE 60 DEGS WAS THE HEAT ISLAND OF NASHVILLE.

WARMING TREND COMMENCES TODAY, AS UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR AREA
STARTS TO WEAKEN. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE MIDDLE 80S FURTHER
WEST.

SHORT TERM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MIGRATE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
FRIDAY. THIS BRING A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW TOMORROW,
ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE LIMITED OVER OUR AREA,
AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIP REMAINS CLOSE TO NIL.

RAIN CHANCE STARTS TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY, AS ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD EAST OF DIFFUSE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS (LOCATED NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR). THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, AND
WILL BE MAINLY OF THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING POP-UP
VARIETY.

BY SUNDAY, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE DEEPENED OVER ALL OF
MIDDLE TN, ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS, AND IT COULD MARK OUR BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

MAY MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMP FORECAST IN BOTH
THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM. SO, CURRENT GRID TEMPS MAY CHANGE A
BIT BETWEEN NOW AND 4 AM CDT. IF CHANGES ARE MADE, A NEW SUITE OF
PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED TO REFLECT THE ALTERATIONS.

LONG TERM...BY MONDAY MORNING, THE SOUTHERN PART OF WEAK UPPER
TROUGH (FROM TN, SOUTHWESTWARD) RETROGRADES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND BY TUESDAY CLIPS OFF INTO A CLOSED UPPER
SYSTEM. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM ERIKA, IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER,
IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR, OR OVER, NORTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND
THEN ENGAGE IN A RATHER SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC SEABOARD. TEND TO PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, WITH KEEPING THE WEAK UPPER LOW
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND "ERIKA" AS SEPARATE SYSTEMS, WITH
SEPARATE MOISTURE FIELDS, AND AN INTERVENING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

TYPICALLY, WHEN AN ORGANIZED TROPICAL SYSTEM SLIDES UP THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD, MUCH OF MIDDLE TN ENDS UP IN THE OUTER
FRINGE SUBSIDENCE AREA (UNLESS THE SYSTEM IS VERY BROAD). INDEED,
OMEGAS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOK RATHER PUNY FOR OUR
FA, AND HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE MAIN CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO OUR EASTERN AREAS, JUST IN CASE "ERIKA"
HAPPENS TO PUSH FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THE GFS
SOLUTION OF DEVELOPING A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE WESTWARD FROM
"ERIKA" DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD JUST DOESN`T LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS POINT. SO, WILL STICK WITH THE ECMWF IDEA FOR NOW.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 271644
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1144 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. AS A
RESULT...THE MIDSOUTH IS EXPERIENCING ANOTHER PLEASANT MORNING.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO
UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S IN THE MEMPHIS METRO. A FEW MORE LOCATIONS WERE
OBSERVING A LIGHT NORTH WIND COMPARED TO THIS TIME LAST NIGHT.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VERY COMPARABLE TO
YESTERDAY. THOUGH THE GFS HAS BEEN NAILING THE LOW TEMPERATURES
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE COOLER NAM`S
STRONG RADIATIONAL AFFECTS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FIRST OF TWO WEATHER MAKERS...NOW
SEEN AS A WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE
GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD. THOUGH THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
POSITION AND INTENSITY...THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND LIFT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. THIS COUPLED
WITH DRIER AIR BELOW 800MB WILL LIKELY CAUSE MORE CLOUDS AND
MIDLEVEL VIRGA THAN ANYTHING FOR THE MIDSOUTH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST OUT OF
ALABAMA LATER THIS WEEKEND HELPING TO TRIGGER A STRAY DIURNAL
SHOWER OR STORM IN THE EAST...OTHERWISE MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

EXTENDED FORECAST...BETTER RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE
LATER NEXT WEEK...EVEN THOUGH MODELS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED WITH
REGARDS TO THE SECOND WEATHER MAKER...TS ERIKA. NOW THE GFS SHOWS
HER AS A MUCH STRONGER STORM CAUGHT UP IN THE GULF STREAM...WHILE
THE EURO IS WEAKER AND FARTHER WEST. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HOWEVER
KEEP A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH INCREASING
PW`S. FOR NOW CONVECTION COVERAGE APPEARS DIURNAL AND
ISOLATED...BUT ANY WESTWARD DEVIATION WITH ERIKA BEFORE OR AFTER
LANDFALL COULD CAUSE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY FOR OUR AREA.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (27/12Z-28/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TODAY NE 8-10
KTS. WINDS TONIGHT NE 5 KTS OR LESS.

JCL

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 271644
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1144 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. AS A
RESULT...THE MIDSOUTH IS EXPERIENCING ANOTHER PLEASANT MORNING.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO
UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S IN THE MEMPHIS METRO. A FEW MORE LOCATIONS WERE
OBSERVING A LIGHT NORTH WIND COMPARED TO THIS TIME LAST NIGHT.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VERY COMPARABLE TO
YESTERDAY. THOUGH THE GFS HAS BEEN NAILING THE LOW TEMPERATURES
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE COOLER NAM`S
STRONG RADIATIONAL AFFECTS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FIRST OF TWO WEATHER MAKERS...NOW
SEEN AS A WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE
GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD. THOUGH THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
POSITION AND INTENSITY...THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND LIFT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. THIS COUPLED
WITH DRIER AIR BELOW 800MB WILL LIKELY CAUSE MORE CLOUDS AND
MIDLEVEL VIRGA THAN ANYTHING FOR THE MIDSOUTH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST OUT OF
ALABAMA LATER THIS WEEKEND HELPING TO TRIGGER A STRAY DIURNAL
SHOWER OR STORM IN THE EAST...OTHERWISE MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

EXTENDED FORECAST...BETTER RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE
LATER NEXT WEEK...EVEN THOUGH MODELS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED WITH
REGARDS TO THE SECOND WEATHER MAKER...TS ERIKA. NOW THE GFS SHOWS
HER AS A MUCH STRONGER STORM CAUGHT UP IN THE GULF STREAM...WHILE
THE EURO IS WEAKER AND FARTHER WEST. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HOWEVER
KEEP A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH INCREASING
PW`S. FOR NOW CONVECTION COVERAGE APPEARS DIURNAL AND
ISOLATED...BUT ANY WESTWARD DEVIATION WITH ERIKA BEFORE OR AFTER
LANDFALL COULD CAUSE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY FOR OUR AREA.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (27/12Z-28/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TODAY NE 8-10
KTS. WINDS TONIGHT NE 5 KTS OR LESS.

JCL

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 271644
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1144 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. AS A
RESULT...THE MIDSOUTH IS EXPERIENCING ANOTHER PLEASANT MORNING.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO
UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S IN THE MEMPHIS METRO. A FEW MORE LOCATIONS WERE
OBSERVING A LIGHT NORTH WIND COMPARED TO THIS TIME LAST NIGHT.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VERY COMPARABLE TO
YESTERDAY. THOUGH THE GFS HAS BEEN NAILING THE LOW TEMPERATURES
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE COOLER NAM`S
STRONG RADIATIONAL AFFECTS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FIRST OF TWO WEATHER MAKERS...NOW
SEEN AS A WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE
GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD. THOUGH THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
POSITION AND INTENSITY...THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND LIFT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. THIS COUPLED
WITH DRIER AIR BELOW 800MB WILL LIKELY CAUSE MORE CLOUDS AND
MIDLEVEL VIRGA THAN ANYTHING FOR THE MIDSOUTH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST OUT OF
ALABAMA LATER THIS WEEKEND HELPING TO TRIGGER A STRAY DIURNAL
SHOWER OR STORM IN THE EAST...OTHERWISE MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

EXTENDED FORECAST...BETTER RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE
LATER NEXT WEEK...EVEN THOUGH MODELS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED WITH
REGARDS TO THE SECOND WEATHER MAKER...TS ERIKA. NOW THE GFS SHOWS
HER AS A MUCH STRONGER STORM CAUGHT UP IN THE GULF STREAM...WHILE
THE EURO IS WEAKER AND FARTHER WEST. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HOWEVER
KEEP A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH INCREASING
PW`S. FOR NOW CONVECTION COVERAGE APPEARS DIURNAL AND
ISOLATED...BUT ANY WESTWARD DEVIATION WITH ERIKA BEFORE OR AFTER
LANDFALL COULD CAUSE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY FOR OUR AREA.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (27/12Z-28/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TODAY NE 8-10
KTS. WINDS TONIGHT NE 5 KTS OR LESS.

JCL

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 271427
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
927 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...ANOTHER VERY NICE...BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY IS UNDERWAY
ACROSS MID TN. UNDER SUNNY SKIES...TEMPS WILL TOP OUT 1-4 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. DEW POINTS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S WITH A
NE BREEZE NEAR 10 MPH.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF`S.

BNA/CKV/CSV...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS
MORNING. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR WEST WITH
A FEW CLOUDS TODAY AND VFR WX THE NEXT 24 HRS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
A FEW KNOTS BY MID-MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...ENJOYING ONE LAST NICE COOL MORNING OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH LATE NIGHT TEMPS ONCE AGAIN DROPPING THROUGH THE
50S OVER MOST AREAS. AT 2AM, THE ONLY STATION WITH REPORTING AT
TEMP ABOVE 60 DEGS WAS THE HEAT ISLAND OF NASHVILLE.

WARMING TREND COMMENCES TODAY, AS UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR AREA
STARTS TO WEAKEN. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE MIDDLE 80S FURTHER
WEST.

SHORT TERM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MIGRATE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
FRIDAY. THIS BRING A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW TOMORROW,
ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE LIMITED OVER OUR AREA,
AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIP REMAINS CLOSE TO NIL.

RAIN CHANCE STARTS TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY, AS ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD EAST OF DIFFUSE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS (LOCATED NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR). THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, AND
WILL BE MAINLY OF THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING POP-UP
VARIETY.

BY SUNDAY, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE DEEPENED OVER ALL OF
MIDDLE TN, ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS, AND IT COULD MARK OUR BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

MAY MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMP FORECAST IN BOTH
THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM. SO, CURRENT GRID TEMPS MAY CHANGE A
BIT BETWEEN NOW AND 4 AM CDT. IF CHANGES ARE MADE, A NEW SUITE OF
PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED TO REFLECT THE ALTERATIONS.

LONG TERM...BY MONDAY MORNING, THE SOUTHERN PART OF WEAK UPPER
TROUGH (FROM TN, SOUTHWESTWARD) RETROGRADES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND BY TUESDAY CLIPS OFF INTO A CLOSED UPPER
SYSTEM. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM ERIKA, IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER,
IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR, OR OVER, NORTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND
THEN ENGAGE IN A RATHER SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC SEABOARD. TEND TO PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, WITH KEEPING THE WEAK UPPER LOW
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND "ERIKA" AS SEPARATE SYSTEMS, WITH
SEPARATE MOISTURE FIELDS, AND AN INTERVENING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

TYPICALLY, WHEN AN ORGANIZED TROPICAL SYSTEM SLIDES UP THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD, MUCH OF MIDDLE TN ENDS UP IN THE OUTER
FRINGE SUBSIDENCE AREA (UNLESS THE SYSTEM IS VERY BROAD). INDEED,
OMEGAS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOK RATHER PUNY FOR OUR
FA, AND HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE MAIN CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO OUR EASTERN AREAS, JUST IN CASE "ERIKA"
HAPPENS TO PUSH FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THE GFS
SOLUTION OF DEVELOPING A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE WESTWARD FROM
"ERIKA" DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD JUST DOESN`T LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS POINT. SO, WILL STICK WITH THE ECMWF IDEA FOR NOW.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 271427
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
927 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...ANOTHER VERY NICE...BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY IS UNDERWAY
ACROSS MID TN. UNDER SUNNY SKIES...TEMPS WILL TOP OUT 1-4 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. DEW POINTS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S WITH A
NE BREEZE NEAR 10 MPH.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF`S.

BNA/CKV/CSV...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS
MORNING. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR WEST WITH
A FEW CLOUDS TODAY AND VFR WX THE NEXT 24 HRS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
A FEW KNOTS BY MID-MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...ENJOYING ONE LAST NICE COOL MORNING OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH LATE NIGHT TEMPS ONCE AGAIN DROPPING THROUGH THE
50S OVER MOST AREAS. AT 2AM, THE ONLY STATION WITH REPORTING AT
TEMP ABOVE 60 DEGS WAS THE HEAT ISLAND OF NASHVILLE.

WARMING TREND COMMENCES TODAY, AS UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR AREA
STARTS TO WEAKEN. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE MIDDLE 80S FURTHER
WEST.

SHORT TERM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MIGRATE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
FRIDAY. THIS BRING A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW TOMORROW,
ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE LIMITED OVER OUR AREA,
AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIP REMAINS CLOSE TO NIL.

RAIN CHANCE STARTS TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY, AS ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD EAST OF DIFFUSE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS (LOCATED NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR). THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, AND
WILL BE MAINLY OF THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING POP-UP
VARIETY.

BY SUNDAY, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE DEEPENED OVER ALL OF
MIDDLE TN, ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS, AND IT COULD MARK OUR BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

MAY MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMP FORECAST IN BOTH
THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM. SO, CURRENT GRID TEMPS MAY CHANGE A
BIT BETWEEN NOW AND 4 AM CDT. IF CHANGES ARE MADE, A NEW SUITE OF
PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED TO REFLECT THE ALTERATIONS.

LONG TERM...BY MONDAY MORNING, THE SOUTHERN PART OF WEAK UPPER
TROUGH (FROM TN, SOUTHWESTWARD) RETROGRADES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND BY TUESDAY CLIPS OFF INTO A CLOSED UPPER
SYSTEM. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM ERIKA, IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER,
IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR, OR OVER, NORTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND
THEN ENGAGE IN A RATHER SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC SEABOARD. TEND TO PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, WITH KEEPING THE WEAK UPPER LOW
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND "ERIKA" AS SEPARATE SYSTEMS, WITH
SEPARATE MOISTURE FIELDS, AND AN INTERVENING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

TYPICALLY, WHEN AN ORGANIZED TROPICAL SYSTEM SLIDES UP THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD, MUCH OF MIDDLE TN ENDS UP IN THE OUTER
FRINGE SUBSIDENCE AREA (UNLESS THE SYSTEM IS VERY BROAD). INDEED,
OMEGAS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOK RATHER PUNY FOR OUR
FA, AND HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE MAIN CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO OUR EASTERN AREAS, JUST IN CASE "ERIKA"
HAPPENS TO PUSH FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THE GFS
SOLUTION OF DEVELOPING A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE WESTWARD FROM
"ERIKA" DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD JUST DOESN`T LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS POINT. SO, WILL STICK WITH THE ECMWF IDEA FOR NOW.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 271427
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
927 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...ANOTHER VERY NICE...BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY IS UNDERWAY
ACROSS MID TN. UNDER SUNNY SKIES...TEMPS WILL TOP OUT 1-4 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. DEW POINTS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S WITH A
NE BREEZE NEAR 10 MPH.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF`S.

BNA/CKV/CSV...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS
MORNING. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR WEST WITH
A FEW CLOUDS TODAY AND VFR WX THE NEXT 24 HRS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
A FEW KNOTS BY MID-MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...ENJOYING ONE LAST NICE COOL MORNING OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH LATE NIGHT TEMPS ONCE AGAIN DROPPING THROUGH THE
50S OVER MOST AREAS. AT 2AM, THE ONLY STATION WITH REPORTING AT
TEMP ABOVE 60 DEGS WAS THE HEAT ISLAND OF NASHVILLE.

WARMING TREND COMMENCES TODAY, AS UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR AREA
STARTS TO WEAKEN. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE MIDDLE 80S FURTHER
WEST.

SHORT TERM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MIGRATE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
FRIDAY. THIS BRING A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW TOMORROW,
ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE LIMITED OVER OUR AREA,
AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIP REMAINS CLOSE TO NIL.

RAIN CHANCE STARTS TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY, AS ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD EAST OF DIFFUSE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS (LOCATED NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR). THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, AND
WILL BE MAINLY OF THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING POP-UP
VARIETY.

BY SUNDAY, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE DEEPENED OVER ALL OF
MIDDLE TN, ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS, AND IT COULD MARK OUR BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

MAY MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMP FORECAST IN BOTH
THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM. SO, CURRENT GRID TEMPS MAY CHANGE A
BIT BETWEEN NOW AND 4 AM CDT. IF CHANGES ARE MADE, A NEW SUITE OF
PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED TO REFLECT THE ALTERATIONS.

LONG TERM...BY MONDAY MORNING, THE SOUTHERN PART OF WEAK UPPER
TROUGH (FROM TN, SOUTHWESTWARD) RETROGRADES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND BY TUESDAY CLIPS OFF INTO A CLOSED UPPER
SYSTEM. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM ERIKA, IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER,
IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR, OR OVER, NORTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND
THEN ENGAGE IN A RATHER SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC SEABOARD. TEND TO PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, WITH KEEPING THE WEAK UPPER LOW
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND "ERIKA" AS SEPARATE SYSTEMS, WITH
SEPARATE MOISTURE FIELDS, AND AN INTERVENING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

TYPICALLY, WHEN AN ORGANIZED TROPICAL SYSTEM SLIDES UP THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD, MUCH OF MIDDLE TN ENDS UP IN THE OUTER
FRINGE SUBSIDENCE AREA (UNLESS THE SYSTEM IS VERY BROAD). INDEED,
OMEGAS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOK RATHER PUNY FOR OUR
FA, AND HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE MAIN CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO OUR EASTERN AREAS, JUST IN CASE "ERIKA"
HAPPENS TO PUSH FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THE GFS
SOLUTION OF DEVELOPING A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE WESTWARD FROM
"ERIKA" DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD JUST DOESN`T LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS POINT. SO, WILL STICK WITH THE ECMWF IDEA FOR NOW.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 271355
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
955 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MANY MORE CLOUDS EVIDENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
AREAS WITH EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS WERE INHIBITING INSOLATION
THEREFORE ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN EARLIER FORECASTS.
AS SUCH...HAVE TWEAKED MAX TEMPS AND HOURLY TEMP GRIDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES
REMAIN VERY LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             84  66  88  68 /   0   0  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  82  63  86  67 /  10   0  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       82  63  86  67 /  10   0  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              82  60  85  60 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC



000
FXUS64 KMRX 271132 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
730 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES THE REGION.  THEREFORE...EXPECT A FEW
AFTERNOON CU...VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB



000
FXUS64 KMRX 271132 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
730 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES THE REGION.  THEREFORE...EXPECT A FEW
AFTERNOON CU...VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 271132 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
730 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES THE REGION.  THEREFORE...EXPECT A FEW
AFTERNOON CU...VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB



000
FXUS64 KMRX 271132 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
730 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES THE REGION.  THEREFORE...EXPECT A FEW
AFTERNOON CU...VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB




000
FXUS64 KOHX 271109
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
609 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF`S.

BNA/CKV/CSV...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS
MORNING. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR WEST WITH
A FEW CLOUDS TODAY AND VFR WX THE NEXT 24 HRS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
A FEW KNOTS BY MID-MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...ENJOYING ONE LAST NICE COOL MORNING OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH LATE NIGHT TEMPS ONCE AGAIN DROPPING THROUGH THE
50S OVER MOST AREAS. AT 2AM, THE ONLY STATION WITH REPORTING AT
TEMP ABOVE 60 DEGS WAS THE HEAT ISLAND OF NASHVILLE.

WARMING TREND COMMENCES TODAY, AS UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR AREA
STARTS TO WEAKEN. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE MIDDLE 80S FURTHER
WEST.

SHORT TERM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MIGRATE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
FRIDAY. THIS BRING A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW TOMORROW,
ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE LIMITED OVER OUR AREA,
AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIP REMAINS CLOSE TO NIL.

RAIN CHANCE STARTS TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY, AS ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD EAST OF DIFFUSE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS (LOCATED NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR). THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, AND
WILL BE MAINLY OF THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING POP-UP
VARIETY.

BY SUNDAY, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE DEEPENED OVER ALL OF
MIDDLE TN, ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS, AND IT COULD MARK OUR BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

MAY MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMP FORECAST IN BOTH
THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM. SO, CURRENT GRID TEMPS MAY CHANGE A
BIT BETWEEN NOW AND 4 AM CDT. IF CHANGES ARE MADE, A NEW SUITE OF
PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED TO REFLECT THE ALTERATIONS.

LONG TERM...BY MONDAY MORNING, THE SOUTHERN PART OF WEAK UPPER
TROUGH (FROM TN, SOUTHWESTWARD) RETROGRADES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND BY TUESDAY CLIPS OFF INTO A CLOSED UPPER
SYSTEM. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM ERIKA, IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER,
IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR, OR OVER, NORTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND
THEN ENGAGE IN A RATHER SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC SEABOARD. TEND TO PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, WITH KEEPING THE WEAK UPPER LOW
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND "ERIKA" AS SEPARATE SYSTEMS, WITH
SEPARATE MOISTURE FIELDS, AND AN INTERVENING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

TYPICALLY, WHEN AN ORGANIZED TROPICAL SYSTEM SLIDES UP THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD, MUCH OF MIDDLE TN ENDS UP IN THE OUTER
FRINGE SUBSIDENCE AREA (UNLESS THE SYSTEM IS VERY BROAD). INDEED,
OMEGAS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOK RATHER PUNY FOR OUR
FA, AND HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE MAIN CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO OUR EASTERN AREAS, JUST IN CASE "ERIKA"
HAPPENS TO PUSH FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THE GFS
SOLUTION OF DEVELOPING A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE WESTWARD FROM
"ERIKA" DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD JUST DOESN`T LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS POINT. SO, WILL STICK WITH THE ECMWF IDEA FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      85  63  89  69 /   0   0   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    83  58  87  65 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     78  61  82  65 /   0   0  10  10
COLUMBIA       86  60  87  67 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   85  62  87  67 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        84  60  86  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08




000
FXUS64 KOHX 271109
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
609 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF`S.

BNA/CKV/CSV...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS
MORNING. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR WEST WITH
A FEW CLOUDS TODAY AND VFR WX THE NEXT 24 HRS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
A FEW KNOTS BY MID-MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...ENJOYING ONE LAST NICE COOL MORNING OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH LATE NIGHT TEMPS ONCE AGAIN DROPPING THROUGH THE
50S OVER MOST AREAS. AT 2AM, THE ONLY STATION WITH REPORTING AT
TEMP ABOVE 60 DEGS WAS THE HEAT ISLAND OF NASHVILLE.

WARMING TREND COMMENCES TODAY, AS UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR AREA
STARTS TO WEAKEN. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE MIDDLE 80S FURTHER
WEST.

SHORT TERM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MIGRATE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
FRIDAY. THIS BRING A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW TOMORROW,
ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE LIMITED OVER OUR AREA,
AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIP REMAINS CLOSE TO NIL.

RAIN CHANCE STARTS TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY, AS ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD EAST OF DIFFUSE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS (LOCATED NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR). THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, AND
WILL BE MAINLY OF THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING POP-UP
VARIETY.

BY SUNDAY, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE DEEPENED OVER ALL OF
MIDDLE TN, ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS, AND IT COULD MARK OUR BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

MAY MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMP FORECAST IN BOTH
THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM. SO, CURRENT GRID TEMPS MAY CHANGE A
BIT BETWEEN NOW AND 4 AM CDT. IF CHANGES ARE MADE, A NEW SUITE OF
PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED TO REFLECT THE ALTERATIONS.

LONG TERM...BY MONDAY MORNING, THE SOUTHERN PART OF WEAK UPPER
TROUGH (FROM TN, SOUTHWESTWARD) RETROGRADES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND BY TUESDAY CLIPS OFF INTO A CLOSED UPPER
SYSTEM. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM ERIKA, IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER,
IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR, OR OVER, NORTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND
THEN ENGAGE IN A RATHER SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC SEABOARD. TEND TO PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, WITH KEEPING THE WEAK UPPER LOW
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND "ERIKA" AS SEPARATE SYSTEMS, WITH
SEPARATE MOISTURE FIELDS, AND AN INTERVENING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

TYPICALLY, WHEN AN ORGANIZED TROPICAL SYSTEM SLIDES UP THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD, MUCH OF MIDDLE TN ENDS UP IN THE OUTER
FRINGE SUBSIDENCE AREA (UNLESS THE SYSTEM IS VERY BROAD). INDEED,
OMEGAS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOK RATHER PUNY FOR OUR
FA, AND HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE MAIN CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO OUR EASTERN AREAS, JUST IN CASE "ERIKA"
HAPPENS TO PUSH FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THE GFS
SOLUTION OF DEVELOPING A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE WESTWARD FROM
"ERIKA" DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD JUST DOESN`T LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS POINT. SO, WILL STICK WITH THE ECMWF IDEA FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      85  63  89  69 /   0   0   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    83  58  87  65 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     78  61  82  65 /   0   0  10  10
COLUMBIA       86  60  87  67 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   85  62  87  67 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        84  60  86  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08




000
FXUS64 KOHX 271109
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
609 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF`S.

BNA/CKV/CSV...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS
MORNING. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR WEST WITH
A FEW CLOUDS TODAY AND VFR WX THE NEXT 24 HRS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
A FEW KNOTS BY MID-MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...ENJOYING ONE LAST NICE COOL MORNING OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH LATE NIGHT TEMPS ONCE AGAIN DROPPING THROUGH THE
50S OVER MOST AREAS. AT 2AM, THE ONLY STATION WITH REPORTING AT
TEMP ABOVE 60 DEGS WAS THE HEAT ISLAND OF NASHVILLE.

WARMING TREND COMMENCES TODAY, AS UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR AREA
STARTS TO WEAKEN. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE MIDDLE 80S FURTHER
WEST.

SHORT TERM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MIGRATE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
FRIDAY. THIS BRING A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW TOMORROW,
ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE LIMITED OVER OUR AREA,
AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIP REMAINS CLOSE TO NIL.

RAIN CHANCE STARTS TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY, AS ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD EAST OF DIFFUSE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS (LOCATED NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR). THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, AND
WILL BE MAINLY OF THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING POP-UP
VARIETY.

BY SUNDAY, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE DEEPENED OVER ALL OF
MIDDLE TN, ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS, AND IT COULD MARK OUR BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

MAY MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMP FORECAST IN BOTH
THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM. SO, CURRENT GRID TEMPS MAY CHANGE A
BIT BETWEEN NOW AND 4 AM CDT. IF CHANGES ARE MADE, A NEW SUITE OF
PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED TO REFLECT THE ALTERATIONS.

LONG TERM...BY MONDAY MORNING, THE SOUTHERN PART OF WEAK UPPER
TROUGH (FROM TN, SOUTHWESTWARD) RETROGRADES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND BY TUESDAY CLIPS OFF INTO A CLOSED UPPER
SYSTEM. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM ERIKA, IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER,
IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR, OR OVER, NORTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND
THEN ENGAGE IN A RATHER SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC SEABOARD. TEND TO PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, WITH KEEPING THE WEAK UPPER LOW
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND "ERIKA" AS SEPARATE SYSTEMS, WITH
SEPARATE MOISTURE FIELDS, AND AN INTERVENING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

TYPICALLY, WHEN AN ORGANIZED TROPICAL SYSTEM SLIDES UP THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD, MUCH OF MIDDLE TN ENDS UP IN THE OUTER
FRINGE SUBSIDENCE AREA (UNLESS THE SYSTEM IS VERY BROAD). INDEED,
OMEGAS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOK RATHER PUNY FOR OUR
FA, AND HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE MAIN CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO OUR EASTERN AREAS, JUST IN CASE "ERIKA"
HAPPENS TO PUSH FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THE GFS
SOLUTION OF DEVELOPING A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE WESTWARD FROM
"ERIKA" DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD JUST DOESN`T LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS POINT. SO, WILL STICK WITH THE ECMWF IDEA FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      85  63  89  69 /   0   0   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    83  58  87  65 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     78  61  82  65 /   0   0  10  10
COLUMBIA       86  60  87  67 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   85  62  87  67 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        84  60  86  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08




000
FXUS64 KOHX 271109
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
609 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF`S.

BNA/CKV/CSV...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS
MORNING. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR WEST WITH
A FEW CLOUDS TODAY AND VFR WX THE NEXT 24 HRS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
A FEW KNOTS BY MID-MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...ENJOYING ONE LAST NICE COOL MORNING OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH LATE NIGHT TEMPS ONCE AGAIN DROPPING THROUGH THE
50S OVER MOST AREAS. AT 2AM, THE ONLY STATION WITH REPORTING AT
TEMP ABOVE 60 DEGS WAS THE HEAT ISLAND OF NASHVILLE.

WARMING TREND COMMENCES TODAY, AS UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR AREA
STARTS TO WEAKEN. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE MIDDLE 80S FURTHER
WEST.

SHORT TERM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MIGRATE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
FRIDAY. THIS BRING A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW TOMORROW,
ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE LIMITED OVER OUR AREA,
AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIP REMAINS CLOSE TO NIL.

RAIN CHANCE STARTS TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY, AS ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD EAST OF DIFFUSE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS (LOCATED NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR). THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, AND
WILL BE MAINLY OF THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING POP-UP
VARIETY.

BY SUNDAY, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE DEEPENED OVER ALL OF
MIDDLE TN, ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS, AND IT COULD MARK OUR BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

MAY MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMP FORECAST IN BOTH
THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM. SO, CURRENT GRID TEMPS MAY CHANGE A
BIT BETWEEN NOW AND 4 AM CDT. IF CHANGES ARE MADE, A NEW SUITE OF
PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED TO REFLECT THE ALTERATIONS.

LONG TERM...BY MONDAY MORNING, THE SOUTHERN PART OF WEAK UPPER
TROUGH (FROM TN, SOUTHWESTWARD) RETROGRADES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND BY TUESDAY CLIPS OFF INTO A CLOSED UPPER
SYSTEM. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM ERIKA, IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER,
IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR, OR OVER, NORTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND
THEN ENGAGE IN A RATHER SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC SEABOARD. TEND TO PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, WITH KEEPING THE WEAK UPPER LOW
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND "ERIKA" AS SEPARATE SYSTEMS, WITH
SEPARATE MOISTURE FIELDS, AND AN INTERVENING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

TYPICALLY, WHEN AN ORGANIZED TROPICAL SYSTEM SLIDES UP THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD, MUCH OF MIDDLE TN ENDS UP IN THE OUTER
FRINGE SUBSIDENCE AREA (UNLESS THE SYSTEM IS VERY BROAD). INDEED,
OMEGAS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOK RATHER PUNY FOR OUR
FA, AND HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE MAIN CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO OUR EASTERN AREAS, JUST IN CASE "ERIKA"
HAPPENS TO PUSH FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THE GFS
SOLUTION OF DEVELOPING A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE WESTWARD FROM
"ERIKA" DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD JUST DOESN`T LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS POINT. SO, WILL STICK WITH THE ECMWF IDEA FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      85  63  89  69 /   0   0   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    83  58  87  65 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     78  61  82  65 /   0   0  10  10
COLUMBIA       86  60  87  67 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   85  62  87  67 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        84  60  86  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08




000
FXUS64 KOHX 271109
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
609 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF`S.

BNA/CKV/CSV...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS
MORNING. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR WEST WITH
A FEW CLOUDS TODAY AND VFR WX THE NEXT 24 HRS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
A FEW KNOTS BY MID-MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...ENJOYING ONE LAST NICE COOL MORNING OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH LATE NIGHT TEMPS ONCE AGAIN DROPPING THROUGH THE
50S OVER MOST AREAS. AT 2AM, THE ONLY STATION WITH REPORTING AT
TEMP ABOVE 60 DEGS WAS THE HEAT ISLAND OF NASHVILLE.

WARMING TREND COMMENCES TODAY, AS UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR AREA
STARTS TO WEAKEN. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE MIDDLE 80S FURTHER
WEST.

SHORT TERM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MIGRATE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
FRIDAY. THIS BRING A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW TOMORROW,
ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE LIMITED OVER OUR AREA,
AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIP REMAINS CLOSE TO NIL.

RAIN CHANCE STARTS TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY, AS ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD EAST OF DIFFUSE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS (LOCATED NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR). THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, AND
WILL BE MAINLY OF THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING POP-UP
VARIETY.

BY SUNDAY, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE DEEPENED OVER ALL OF
MIDDLE TN, ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS, AND IT COULD MARK OUR BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

MAY MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMP FORECAST IN BOTH
THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM. SO, CURRENT GRID TEMPS MAY CHANGE A
BIT BETWEEN NOW AND 4 AM CDT. IF CHANGES ARE MADE, A NEW SUITE OF
PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED TO REFLECT THE ALTERATIONS.

LONG TERM...BY MONDAY MORNING, THE SOUTHERN PART OF WEAK UPPER
TROUGH (FROM TN, SOUTHWESTWARD) RETROGRADES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND BY TUESDAY CLIPS OFF INTO A CLOSED UPPER
SYSTEM. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM ERIKA, IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER,
IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR, OR OVER, NORTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND
THEN ENGAGE IN A RATHER SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC SEABOARD. TEND TO PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, WITH KEEPING THE WEAK UPPER LOW
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND "ERIKA" AS SEPARATE SYSTEMS, WITH
SEPARATE MOISTURE FIELDS, AND AN INTERVENING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

TYPICALLY, WHEN AN ORGANIZED TROPICAL SYSTEM SLIDES UP THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD, MUCH OF MIDDLE TN ENDS UP IN THE OUTER
FRINGE SUBSIDENCE AREA (UNLESS THE SYSTEM IS VERY BROAD). INDEED,
OMEGAS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOK RATHER PUNY FOR OUR
FA, AND HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE MAIN CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO OUR EASTERN AREAS, JUST IN CASE "ERIKA"
HAPPENS TO PUSH FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THE GFS
SOLUTION OF DEVELOPING A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE WESTWARD FROM
"ERIKA" DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD JUST DOESN`T LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS POINT. SO, WILL STICK WITH THE ECMWF IDEA FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      85  63  89  69 /   0   0   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    83  58  87  65 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     78  61  82  65 /   0   0  10  10
COLUMBIA       86  60  87  67 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   85  62  87  67 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        84  60  86  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08



000
FXUS64 KOHX 271109
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
609 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF`S.

BNA/CKV/CSV...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS
MORNING. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR WEST WITH
A FEW CLOUDS TODAY AND VFR WX THE NEXT 24 HRS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
A FEW KNOTS BY MID-MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...ENJOYING ONE LAST NICE COOL MORNING OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH LATE NIGHT TEMPS ONCE AGAIN DROPPING THROUGH THE
50S OVER MOST AREAS. AT 2AM, THE ONLY STATION WITH REPORTING AT
TEMP ABOVE 60 DEGS WAS THE HEAT ISLAND OF NASHVILLE.

WARMING TREND COMMENCES TODAY, AS UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR AREA
STARTS TO WEAKEN. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE MIDDLE 80S FURTHER
WEST.

SHORT TERM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MIGRATE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
FRIDAY. THIS BRING A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW TOMORROW,
ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE LIMITED OVER OUR AREA,
AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIP REMAINS CLOSE TO NIL.

RAIN CHANCE STARTS TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY, AS ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD EAST OF DIFFUSE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS (LOCATED NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR). THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, AND
WILL BE MAINLY OF THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING POP-UP
VARIETY.

BY SUNDAY, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE DEEPENED OVER ALL OF
MIDDLE TN, ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS, AND IT COULD MARK OUR BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

MAY MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMP FORECAST IN BOTH
THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM. SO, CURRENT GRID TEMPS MAY CHANGE A
BIT BETWEEN NOW AND 4 AM CDT. IF CHANGES ARE MADE, A NEW SUITE OF
PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED TO REFLECT THE ALTERATIONS.

LONG TERM...BY MONDAY MORNING, THE SOUTHERN PART OF WEAK UPPER
TROUGH (FROM TN, SOUTHWESTWARD) RETROGRADES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND BY TUESDAY CLIPS OFF INTO A CLOSED UPPER
SYSTEM. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM ERIKA, IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER,
IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR, OR OVER, NORTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND
THEN ENGAGE IN A RATHER SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC SEABOARD. TEND TO PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, WITH KEEPING THE WEAK UPPER LOW
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND "ERIKA" AS SEPARATE SYSTEMS, WITH
SEPARATE MOISTURE FIELDS, AND AN INTERVENING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

TYPICALLY, WHEN AN ORGANIZED TROPICAL SYSTEM SLIDES UP THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD, MUCH OF MIDDLE TN ENDS UP IN THE OUTER
FRINGE SUBSIDENCE AREA (UNLESS THE SYSTEM IS VERY BROAD). INDEED,
OMEGAS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOK RATHER PUNY FOR OUR
FA, AND HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE MAIN CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO OUR EASTERN AREAS, JUST IN CASE "ERIKA"
HAPPENS TO PUSH FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THE GFS
SOLUTION OF DEVELOPING A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE WESTWARD FROM
"ERIKA" DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD JUST DOESN`T LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS POINT. SO, WILL STICK WITH THE ECMWF IDEA FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      85  63  89  69 /   0   0   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    83  58  87  65 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     78  61  82  65 /   0   0  10  10
COLUMBIA       86  60  87  67 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   85  62  87  67 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        84  60  86  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08




000
FXUS64 KMEG 271043 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
543 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 308 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S IN THE MEMPHIS METRO. A FEW MORE LOCATIONS WERE
OBSERVING A LIGHT NORTH WIND COMPARED TO THIS TIME LAST NIGHT.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VERY COMPARABLE TO
YESTERDAY. THOUGH THE GFS HAS BEEN NAILING THE LOW TEMPERATURES
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE COOLER NAM`S
STRONG RADIATIONAL AFFECTS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FIRST OF TWO WEATHER MAKERS...NOW
SEEN AS A WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE
GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD. THOUGH THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
POSITION AND INTENSITY...THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND LIFT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. THIS COUPLED
WITH DRIER AIR BELOW 800MB WILL LIKELY CAUSE MORE CLOUDS AND
MIDLEVEL VIRGA THAN ANYTHING FOR THE MIDSOUTH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST OUT OF
ALABAMA LATER THIS WEEKEND HELPING TO TRIGGER A STRAY DIURNAL
SHOWER OR STORM IN THE EAST...OTHERWISE MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

EXTENDED FORECAST...BETTER RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE
LATER NEXT WEEK...EVEN THOUGH MODELS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED WITH
REGARDS TO THE SECOND WEATHER MAKER...TS ERIKA. NOW THE GFS SHOWS
HER AS A MUCH STRONGER STORM CAUGHT UP IN THE GULF STREAM...WHILE
THE EURO IS WEAKER AND FARTHER WEST. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HOWEVER
KEEP A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH INCREASING
PW`S. FOR NOW CONVECTION COVERAGE APPEARS DIURNAL AND
ISOLATED...BUT ANY WESTWARD DEVIATION WITH ERIKA BEFORE OR AFTER
LANDFALL COULD CAUSE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY FOR OUR AREA.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (27/12Z-28/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TODAY NE 8-10
KTS. WINDS TONIGHT NE 5 KTS OR LESS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 271043 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
543 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 308 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S IN THE MEMPHIS METRO. A FEW MORE LOCATIONS WERE
OBSERVING A LIGHT NORTH WIND COMPARED TO THIS TIME LAST NIGHT.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VERY COMPARABLE TO
YESTERDAY. THOUGH THE GFS HAS BEEN NAILING THE LOW TEMPERATURES
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE COOLER NAM`S
STRONG RADIATIONAL AFFECTS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FIRST OF TWO WEATHER MAKERS...NOW
SEEN AS A WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE
GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD. THOUGH THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
POSITION AND INTENSITY...THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND LIFT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. THIS COUPLED
WITH DRIER AIR BELOW 800MB WILL LIKELY CAUSE MORE CLOUDS AND
MIDLEVEL VIRGA THAN ANYTHING FOR THE MIDSOUTH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST OUT OF
ALABAMA LATER THIS WEEKEND HELPING TO TRIGGER A STRAY DIURNAL
SHOWER OR STORM IN THE EAST...OTHERWISE MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

EXTENDED FORECAST...BETTER RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE
LATER NEXT WEEK...EVEN THOUGH MODELS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED WITH
REGARDS TO THE SECOND WEATHER MAKER...TS ERIKA. NOW THE GFS SHOWS
HER AS A MUCH STRONGER STORM CAUGHT UP IN THE GULF STREAM...WHILE
THE EURO IS WEAKER AND FARTHER WEST. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HOWEVER
KEEP A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH INCREASING
PW`S. FOR NOW CONVECTION COVERAGE APPEARS DIURNAL AND
ISOLATED...BUT ANY WESTWARD DEVIATION WITH ERIKA BEFORE OR AFTER
LANDFALL COULD CAUSE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY FOR OUR AREA.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (27/12Z-28/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TODAY NE 8-10
KTS. WINDS TONIGHT NE 5 KTS OR LESS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 271043 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
543 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 308 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S IN THE MEMPHIS METRO. A FEW MORE LOCATIONS WERE
OBSERVING A LIGHT NORTH WIND COMPARED TO THIS TIME LAST NIGHT.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VERY COMPARABLE TO
YESTERDAY. THOUGH THE GFS HAS BEEN NAILING THE LOW TEMPERATURES
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE COOLER NAM`S
STRONG RADIATIONAL AFFECTS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FIRST OF TWO WEATHER MAKERS...NOW
SEEN AS A WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE
GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD. THOUGH THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
POSITION AND INTENSITY...THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND LIFT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. THIS COUPLED
WITH DRIER AIR BELOW 800MB WILL LIKELY CAUSE MORE CLOUDS AND
MIDLEVEL VIRGA THAN ANYTHING FOR THE MIDSOUTH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST OUT OF
ALABAMA LATER THIS WEEKEND HELPING TO TRIGGER A STRAY DIURNAL
SHOWER OR STORM IN THE EAST...OTHERWISE MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

EXTENDED FORECAST...BETTER RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE
LATER NEXT WEEK...EVEN THOUGH MODELS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED WITH
REGARDS TO THE SECOND WEATHER MAKER...TS ERIKA. NOW THE GFS SHOWS
HER AS A MUCH STRONGER STORM CAUGHT UP IN THE GULF STREAM...WHILE
THE EURO IS WEAKER AND FARTHER WEST. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HOWEVER
KEEP A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH INCREASING
PW`S. FOR NOW CONVECTION COVERAGE APPEARS DIURNAL AND
ISOLATED...BUT ANY WESTWARD DEVIATION WITH ERIKA BEFORE OR AFTER
LANDFALL COULD CAUSE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY FOR OUR AREA.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (27/12Z-28/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TODAY NE 8-10
KTS. WINDS TONIGHT NE 5 KTS OR LESS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 270816
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
316 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...ENJOYING ONE LAST NICE COOL MORNING OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH LATE NIGHT TEMPS ONCE AGAIN DROPPING THROUGH THE
50S OVER MOST AREAS. AT 2AM, THE ONLY STATION WITH REPORTING AT
TEMP ABOVE 60 DEGS WAS THE HEAT ISLAND OF NASHVILLE.

WARMING TREND COMMENCES TODAY, AS UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR AREA
STARTS TO WEAKEN. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE MIDDLE 80S FURTHER
WEST.

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MIGRATE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
FRIDAY. THIS BRING A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW TOMORROW,
ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE LIMITED OVER OUR AREA,
AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIP REMAINS CLOSE TO NIL.

RAIN CHANCE STARTS TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY, AS ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD EAST OF DIFFUSE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS (LOCATED NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR). THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, AND
WILL BE MAINLY OF THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING POP-UP
VARIETY.

BY SUNDAY, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE DEEPENED OVER ALL OF
MIDDLE TN, ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS, AND IT COULD MARK OUR BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

MAY MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMP FORECAST IN BOTH
THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM. SO, CURRENT GRID TEMPS MAY CHANGE A
BIT BETWEEN NOW AND 4 AM CDT. IF CHANGES ARE MADE, A NEW SUITE OF
PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED TO REFLECT THE ALTERATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...BY MONDAY MORNING, THE SOUTHERN PART OF WEAK UPPER
TROUGH (FROM TN, SOUTHWESTWARD) RETROGRADES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND BY TUESDAY CLIPS OFF INTO A CLOSED UPPER
SYSTEM. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM ERIKA, IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER,
IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR, OR OVER, NORTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND
THEN ENGAGE IN A RATHER SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC SEABOARD. TEND TO PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, WITH KEEPING THE WEAK UPPER LOW
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND "ERIKA" AS SEPARATE SYSTEMS, WITH
SEPARATE MOISTURE FIELDS, AND AN INTERVENING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

TYPICALLY, WHEN AN ORGANIZED TROPICAL SYSTEM SLIDES UP THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD, MUCH OF MIDDLE TN ENDS UP IN THE OUTER
FRINGE SUBSIDENCE AREA (UNLESS THE SYSTEM IS VERY BROAD). INDEED,
OMEGAS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOK RATHER PUNY FOR OUR
FA, AND HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE MAIN CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO OUR EASTERN AREAS, JUST IN CASE "ERIKA"
HAPPENS TO PUSH FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THE GFS
SOLUTION OF DEVELOPING A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE WESTWARD FROM
"ERIKA" DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD JUST DOESN`T LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS POINT. SO, WILL STICK WITH THE ECMWF IDEA FOR NOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      84  63  88  69 /   0   0   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    81  58  86  65 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     78  61  81  65 /   0   0  10  10
COLUMBIA       84  60  88  67 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   83  62  86  67 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        82  60  86  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19



000
FXUS64 KOHX 270816
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
316 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...ENJOYING ONE LAST NICE COOL MORNING OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH LATE NIGHT TEMPS ONCE AGAIN DROPPING THROUGH THE
50S OVER MOST AREAS. AT 2AM, THE ONLY STATION WITH REPORTING AT
TEMP ABOVE 60 DEGS WAS THE HEAT ISLAND OF NASHVILLE.

WARMING TREND COMMENCES TODAY, AS UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR AREA
STARTS TO WEAKEN. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE MIDDLE 80S FURTHER
WEST.

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MIGRATE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
FRIDAY. THIS BRING A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW TOMORROW,
ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE LIMITED OVER OUR AREA,
AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIP REMAINS CLOSE TO NIL.

RAIN CHANCE STARTS TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY, AS ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD EAST OF DIFFUSE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS (LOCATED NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR). THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, AND
WILL BE MAINLY OF THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING POP-UP
VARIETY.

BY SUNDAY, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE DEEPENED OVER ALL OF
MIDDLE TN, ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS, AND IT COULD MARK OUR BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

MAY MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMP FORECAST IN BOTH
THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM. SO, CURRENT GRID TEMPS MAY CHANGE A
BIT BETWEEN NOW AND 4 AM CDT. IF CHANGES ARE MADE, A NEW SUITE OF
PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED TO REFLECT THE ALTERATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...BY MONDAY MORNING, THE SOUTHERN PART OF WEAK UPPER
TROUGH (FROM TN, SOUTHWESTWARD) RETROGRADES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND BY TUESDAY CLIPS OFF INTO A CLOSED UPPER
SYSTEM. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM ERIKA, IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER,
IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR, OR OVER, NORTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND
THEN ENGAGE IN A RATHER SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC SEABOARD. TEND TO PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, WITH KEEPING THE WEAK UPPER LOW
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND "ERIKA" AS SEPARATE SYSTEMS, WITH
SEPARATE MOISTURE FIELDS, AND AN INTERVENING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

TYPICALLY, WHEN AN ORGANIZED TROPICAL SYSTEM SLIDES UP THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD, MUCH OF MIDDLE TN ENDS UP IN THE OUTER
FRINGE SUBSIDENCE AREA (UNLESS THE SYSTEM IS VERY BROAD). INDEED,
OMEGAS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOK RATHER PUNY FOR OUR
FA, AND HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE MAIN CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO OUR EASTERN AREAS, JUST IN CASE "ERIKA"
HAPPENS TO PUSH FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THE GFS
SOLUTION OF DEVELOPING A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE WESTWARD FROM
"ERIKA" DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD JUST DOESN`T LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS POINT. SO, WILL STICK WITH THE ECMWF IDEA FOR NOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      84  63  88  69 /   0   0   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    81  58  86  65 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     78  61  81  65 /   0   0  10  10
COLUMBIA       84  60  88  67 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   83  62  86  67 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        82  60  86  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KMEG 270808
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
308 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S IN THE MEMPHIS METRO. A FEW MORE LOCATIONS WERE
OBSERVING A LIGHT NORTH WIND COMPARED TO THIS TIME LAST NIGHT.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VERY COMPARABLE TO
YESTERDAY. THOUGH THE GFS HAS BEEN NAILING THE LOW TEMPERATURES
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE COOLER NAM`S
STRONG RADIATIONAL AFFECTS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FIRST OF TWO WEATHER MAKERS...NOW
SEEN AS A WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE
GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD. THOUGH THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
POSITION AND INTENSITY...THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND LIFT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. THIS COUPLED
WITH DRIER AIR BELOW 800MB WILL LIKELY CAUSE MORE CLOUDS AND
MIDLEVEL VIRGA THAN ANYTHING FOR THE MIDSOUTH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST OUT OF
ALABAMA LATER THIS WEEKEND HELPING TO TRIGGER A STRAY DIURNAL
SHOWER OR STORM IN THE EAST...OTHERWISE MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

EXTENDED FORECAST...BETTER RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE
LATER NEXT WEEK...EVEN THOUGH MODELS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED WITH
REGARDS TO THE SECOND WEATHER MAKER...TS ERIKA. NOW THE GFS SHOWS
HER AS A MUCH STRONGER STORM CAUGHT UP IN THE GULF STREAM...WHILE
THE EURO IS WEAKER AND FARTHER WEST. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HOWEVER
KEEP A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH INCREASING
PW`S. FOR NOW CONVECTION COVERAGE APPEARS DIURNAL AND
ISOLATED...BUT ANY WESTWARD DEVIATION WITH ERIKA BEFORE OR AFTER
LANDFALL COULD CAUSE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY FOR OUR AREA.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NNE/NE WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS AFTER 27/15Z
THEN BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AFTER 28/01Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 270808
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
308 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S IN THE MEMPHIS METRO. A FEW MORE LOCATIONS WERE
OBSERVING A LIGHT NORTH WIND COMPARED TO THIS TIME LAST NIGHT.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VERY COMPARABLE TO
YESTERDAY. THOUGH THE GFS HAS BEEN NAILING THE LOW TEMPERATURES
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE COOLER NAM`S
STRONG RADIATIONAL AFFECTS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FIRST OF TWO WEATHER MAKERS...NOW
SEEN AS A WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE
GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD. THOUGH THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
POSITION AND INTENSITY...THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND LIFT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. THIS COUPLED
WITH DRIER AIR BELOW 800MB WILL LIKELY CAUSE MORE CLOUDS AND
MIDLEVEL VIRGA THAN ANYTHING FOR THE MIDSOUTH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST OUT OF
ALABAMA LATER THIS WEEKEND HELPING TO TRIGGER A STRAY DIURNAL
SHOWER OR STORM IN THE EAST...OTHERWISE MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

EXTENDED FORECAST...BETTER RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE
LATER NEXT WEEK...EVEN THOUGH MODELS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED WITH
REGARDS TO THE SECOND WEATHER MAKER...TS ERIKA. NOW THE GFS SHOWS
HER AS A MUCH STRONGER STORM CAUGHT UP IN THE GULF STREAM...WHILE
THE EURO IS WEAKER AND FARTHER WEST. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HOWEVER
KEEP A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH INCREASING
PW`S. FOR NOW CONVECTION COVERAGE APPEARS DIURNAL AND
ISOLATED...BUT ANY WESTWARD DEVIATION WITH ERIKA BEFORE OR AFTER
LANDFALL COULD CAUSE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY FOR OUR AREA.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NNE/NE WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS AFTER 27/15Z
THEN BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AFTER 28/01Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 270657
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
257 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION  BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHEAST TODAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW
WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...AND ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...
MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION.  ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND CONFINED TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD END EARLY IN THE EVENING
FOR A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT OVERALL FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THE PERIOD WILL START OUT RATHER QUIET AS THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE.  BY THE
WEEKEND...MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION.  EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
BE AROUND...AND LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ON SUNDAY.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MAINLY
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             85  66  88  68 /   0   0  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  82  63  86  67 /  10   0  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       82  63  86  67 /  10   0  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              81  60  85  60 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB/LW



000
FXUS64 KMRX 270657
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
257 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION  BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHEAST TODAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW
WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...AND ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...
MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION.  ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND CONFINED TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD END EARLY IN THE EVENING
FOR A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT OVERALL FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THE PERIOD WILL START OUT RATHER QUIET AS THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE.  BY THE
WEEKEND...MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION.  EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
BE AROUND...AND LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ON SUNDAY.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MAINLY
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             85  66  88  68 /   0   0  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  82  63  86  67 /  10   0  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       82  63  86  67 /  10   0  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              81  60  85  60 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB/LW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 270657
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
257 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION  BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHEAST TODAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW
WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...AND ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...
MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION.  ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND CONFINED TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD END EARLY IN THE EVENING
FOR A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT OVERALL FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THE PERIOD WILL START OUT RATHER QUIET AS THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE.  BY THE
WEEKEND...MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION.  EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
BE AROUND...AND LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ON SUNDAY.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MAINLY
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             85  66  88  68 /   0   0  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  82  63  86  67 /  10   0  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       82  63  86  67 /  10   0  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              81  60  85  60 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB/LW



000
FXUS64 KMRX 270657
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
257 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION  BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHEAST TODAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW
WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...AND ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...
MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION.  ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND CONFINED TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD END EARLY IN THE EVENING
FOR A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT OVERALL FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THE PERIOD WILL START OUT RATHER QUIET AS THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE.  BY THE
WEEKEND...MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION.  EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
BE AROUND...AND LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ON SUNDAY.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MAINLY
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             85  66  88  68 /   0   0  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  82  63  86  67 /  10   0  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       82  63  86  67 /  10   0  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              81  60  85  60 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB/LW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 270551 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
151 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THIS TAF PERIOD WITH A SURFACE
HIGH IN CONTROL.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW AFTERNOON CU...VFR
CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KT.  ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS SUNRISE NEAR TRI.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 270551 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
151 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THIS TAF PERIOD WITH A SURFACE
HIGH IN CONTROL.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW AFTERNOON CU...VFR
CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KT.  ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS SUNRISE NEAR TRI.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB



000
FXUS64 KMRX 270551 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
151 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THIS TAF PERIOD WITH A SURFACE
HIGH IN CONTROL.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW AFTERNOON CU...VFR
CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KT.  ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS SUNRISE NEAR TRI.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 270551 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
151 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THIS TAF PERIOD WITH A SURFACE
HIGH IN CONTROL.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW AFTERNOON CU...VFR
CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KT.  ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS SUNRISE NEAR TRI.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 270551 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
151 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THIS TAF PERIOD WITH A SURFACE
HIGH IN CONTROL.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW AFTERNOON CU...VFR
CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KT.  ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS SUNRISE NEAR TRI.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 270551 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
151 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THIS TAF PERIOD WITH A SURFACE
HIGH IN CONTROL.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW AFTERNOON CU...VFR
CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KT.  ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS SUNRISE NEAR TRI.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB




000
FXUS64 KOHX 270441
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1141 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH DIURNAL CU RETURNING TOMORROW ALTHOUGH
SLIGHTLY LESS IN COVERAGE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
AROUND AND BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      60  84  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    56  81  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     57  78  61  81 /   0   0   0  10
COLUMBIA       57  84  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   59  83  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        58  82  60  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05



000
FXUS64 KMEG 270420
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1120 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

UPDATE...
SIMILAR TO THE LAST TWO EVENINGS...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM TO LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH. 9 PM TEMPS AVERAGED
AROUND 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS PREVIOUS...WITH DEWPOINTS
NEARLY THE SAME.

HAVE LOWERED SUBURBAN MEMPHIS AREA TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN THE
MOST RECENT UPDATE. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TARGET.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY AND PLEASANT
LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH ON SATURDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTTING OFF OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL RETROGRADE NORTHWESTWARD BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MID
SOUTH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ALONG WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NNE/NE WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS AFTER 27/15Z
THEN BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AFTER 28/01Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 270420
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1120 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

UPDATE...
SIMILAR TO THE LAST TWO EVENINGS...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM TO LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH. 9 PM TEMPS AVERAGED
AROUND 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS PREVIOUS...WITH DEWPOINTS
NEARLY THE SAME.

HAVE LOWERED SUBURBAN MEMPHIS AREA TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN THE
MOST RECENT UPDATE. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TARGET.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY AND PLEASANT
LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH ON SATURDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTTING OFF OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL RETROGRADE NORTHWESTWARD BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MID
SOUTH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ALONG WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NNE/NE WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS AFTER 27/15Z
THEN BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AFTER 28/01Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 270420
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1120 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

UPDATE...
SIMILAR TO THE LAST TWO EVENINGS...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM TO LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH. 9 PM TEMPS AVERAGED
AROUND 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS PREVIOUS...WITH DEWPOINTS
NEARLY THE SAME.

HAVE LOWERED SUBURBAN MEMPHIS AREA TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN THE
MOST RECENT UPDATE. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TARGET.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY AND PLEASANT
LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH ON SATURDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTTING OFF OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL RETROGRADE NORTHWESTWARD BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MID
SOUTH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ALONG WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NNE/NE WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS AFTER 27/15Z
THEN BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AFTER 28/01Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 270420
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1120 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

UPDATE...
SIMILAR TO THE LAST TWO EVENINGS...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM TO LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH. 9 PM TEMPS AVERAGED
AROUND 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS PREVIOUS...WITH DEWPOINTS
NEARLY THE SAME.

HAVE LOWERED SUBURBAN MEMPHIS AREA TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN THE
MOST RECENT UPDATE. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TARGET.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY AND PLEASANT
LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH ON SATURDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTTING OFF OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL RETROGRADE NORTHWESTWARD BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MID
SOUTH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ALONG WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NNE/NE WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS AFTER 27/15Z
THEN BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AFTER 28/01Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 270218 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
918 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
SIMILAR TO THE LAST TWO EVENINGS...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM TO LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH. 9 PM TEMPS AVERAGED
AROUND 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS PREVIOUS...WITH DEWPOINTS
NEARLY THE SAME.

HAVE LOWERED SUBURBAN MEMPHIS AREA TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN THE
MOST RECENT UPDATE. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TARGET.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY AND PLEASANT
LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH ON SATURDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTTING OFF OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL RETROGRADE NORTHWESTWARD BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MID
SOUTH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ALONG WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. N/NNE
WINDS BETWEEN 8-10 KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 4 KTS OR LESS THIS
EVENING AND INCREASE TO NNE/NE WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS AFTER 27/15Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 270218 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
918 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
SIMILAR TO THE LAST TWO EVENINGS...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM TO LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH. 9 PM TEMPS AVERAGED
AROUND 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS PREVIOUS...WITH DEWPOINTS
NEARLY THE SAME.

HAVE LOWERED SUBURBAN MEMPHIS AREA TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN THE
MOST RECENT UPDATE. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TARGET.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY AND PLEASANT
LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH ON SATURDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTTING OFF OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL RETROGRADE NORTHWESTWARD BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MID
SOUTH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ALONG WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. N/NNE
WINDS BETWEEN 8-10 KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 4 KTS OR LESS THIS
EVENING AND INCREASE TO NNE/NE WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS AFTER 27/15Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 270218 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
918 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
SIMILAR TO THE LAST TWO EVENINGS...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM TO LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH. 9 PM TEMPS AVERAGED
AROUND 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS PREVIOUS...WITH DEWPOINTS
NEARLY THE SAME.

HAVE LOWERED SUBURBAN MEMPHIS AREA TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN THE
MOST RECENT UPDATE. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TARGET.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY AND PLEASANT
LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH ON SATURDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTTING OFF OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL RETROGRADE NORTHWESTWARD BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MID
SOUTH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ALONG WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. N/NNE
WINDS BETWEEN 8-10 KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 4 KTS OR LESS THIS
EVENING AND INCREASE TO NNE/NE WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS AFTER 27/15Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 270218 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
918 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
SIMILAR TO THE LAST TWO EVENINGS...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM TO LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH. 9 PM TEMPS AVERAGED
AROUND 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS PREVIOUS...WITH DEWPOINTS
NEARLY THE SAME.

HAVE LOWERED SUBURBAN MEMPHIS AREA TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN THE
MOST RECENT UPDATE. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TARGET.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY AND PLEASANT
LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH ON SATURDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTTING OFF OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL RETROGRADE NORTHWESTWARD BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MID
SOUTH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ALONG WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. N/NNE
WINDS BETWEEN 8-10 KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 4 KTS OR LESS THIS
EVENING AND INCREASE TO NNE/NE WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS AFTER 27/15Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 270216
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
916 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OUT WEST WHILE UPPER TROUGH STAYS OVER EASTERN
U.S. LOOKS LIKE THE BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN UP NORTH ALONG
CANADIAN BORDER. GFS AND EURO BOTH HAVE TROPICAL SYSTEM WORKING UP
ALONG AND JUST OFF SOUTHEAST COAST OF U.S. NEXT WEEK. I DONT SEE
MID STATE GETTING REALLY ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR THE REST OF THIS
MONTH.


&&



.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01




000
FXUS64 KOHX 270216
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
916 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OUT WEST WHILE UPPER TROUGH STAYS OVER EASTERN
U.S. LOOKS LIKE THE BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN UP NORTH ALONG
CANADIAN BORDER. GFS AND EURO BOTH HAVE TROPICAL SYSTEM WORKING UP
ALONG AND JUST OFF SOUTHEAST COAST OF U.S. NEXT WEEK. I DONT SEE
MID STATE GETTING REALLY ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR THE REST OF THIS
MONTH.


&&



.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01




000
FXUS64 KOHX 270216
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
916 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OUT WEST WHILE UPPER TROUGH STAYS OVER EASTERN
U.S. LOOKS LIKE THE BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN UP NORTH ALONG
CANADIAN BORDER. GFS AND EURO BOTH HAVE TROPICAL SYSTEM WORKING UP
ALONG AND JUST OFF SOUTHEAST COAST OF U.S. NEXT WEEK. I DONT SEE
MID STATE GETTING REALLY ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR THE REST OF THIS
MONTH.


&&



.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01




000
FXUS64 KOHX 270216
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
916 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OUT WEST WHILE UPPER TROUGH STAYS OVER EASTERN
U.S. LOOKS LIKE THE BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN UP NORTH ALONG
CANADIAN BORDER. GFS AND EURO BOTH HAVE TROPICAL SYSTEM WORKING UP
ALONG AND JUST OFF SOUTHEAST COAST OF U.S. NEXT WEEK. I DONT SEE
MID STATE GETTING REALLY ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR THE REST OF THIS
MONTH.


&&



.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01




000
FXUS64 KOHX 270216
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
916 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OUT WEST WHILE UPPER TROUGH STAYS OVER EASTERN
U.S. LOOKS LIKE THE BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN UP NORTH ALONG
CANADIAN BORDER. GFS AND EURO BOTH HAVE TROPICAL SYSTEM WORKING UP
ALONG AND JUST OFF SOUTHEAST COAST OF U.S. NEXT WEEK. I DONT SEE
MID STATE GETTING REALLY ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR THE REST OF THIS
MONTH.


&&



.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01



000
FXUS64 KMRX 270104 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
904 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IN CONTROL...PROMOTING A CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. AS A RESULT...LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S...MAKING FOR ANOTHER VERY COMFORTABLE...AND
SLIGHTLY COOL NIGHT. GIVEN THE STILL VERY WARM WATER TEMPS AND
ALONG AREA LAKES AND RIVERS...AND THE COOLER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS
AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...THE COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             63  86  66  86 /   0   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  61  84  63  85 /   0   0  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       61  85  64  86 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              56  83  60  84 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP



000
FXUS64 KMRX 270104 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
904 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IN CONTROL...PROMOTING A CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. AS A RESULT...LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S...MAKING FOR ANOTHER VERY COMFORTABLE...AND
SLIGHTLY COOL NIGHT. GIVEN THE STILL VERY WARM WATER TEMPS AND
ALONG AREA LAKES AND RIVERS...AND THE COOLER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS
AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...THE COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             63  86  66  86 /   0   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  61  84  63  85 /   0   0  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       61  85  64  86 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              56  83  60  84 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP



000
FXUS64 KMRX 270104 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
904 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IN CONTROL...PROMOTING A CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. AS A RESULT...LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S...MAKING FOR ANOTHER VERY COMFORTABLE...AND
SLIGHTLY COOL NIGHT. GIVEN THE STILL VERY WARM WATER TEMPS AND
ALONG AREA LAKES AND RIVERS...AND THE COOLER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS
AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...THE COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             63  86  66  86 /   0   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  61  84  63  85 /   0   0  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       61  85  64  86 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              56  83  60  84 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP



000
FXUS64 KMRX 270104 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
904 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IN CONTROL...PROMOTING A CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. AS A RESULT...LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S...MAKING FOR ANOTHER VERY COMFORTABLE...AND
SLIGHTLY COOL NIGHT. GIVEN THE STILL VERY WARM WATER TEMPS AND
ALONG AREA LAKES AND RIVERS...AND THE COOLER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS
AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...THE COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             63  86  66  86 /   0   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  61  84  63  85 /   0   0  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       61  85  64  86 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              56  83  60  84 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP



000
FXUS64 KMRX 270104 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
904 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IN CONTROL...PROMOTING A CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. AS A RESULT...LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S...MAKING FOR ANOTHER VERY COMFORTABLE...AND
SLIGHTLY COOL NIGHT. GIVEN THE STILL VERY WARM WATER TEMPS AND
ALONG AREA LAKES AND RIVERS...AND THE COOLER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS
AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...THE COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             63  86  66  86 /   0   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  61  84  63  85 /   0   0  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       61  85  64  86 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              56  83  60  84 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP



000
FXUS64 KMRX 270104 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
904 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IN CONTROL...PROMOTING A CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. AS A RESULT...LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S...MAKING FOR ANOTHER VERY COMFORTABLE...AND
SLIGHTLY COOL NIGHT. GIVEN THE STILL VERY WARM WATER TEMPS AND
ALONG AREA LAKES AND RIVERS...AND THE COOLER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS
AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...THE COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             63  86  66  86 /   0   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  61  84  63  85 /   0   0  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       61  85  64  86 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              56  83  60  84 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KOHX 262342
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
642 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL THREE
LOCATIONS. DIURNAL CU WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN RETURN TOMORROW WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
NORTHEASTERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      60  84  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    56  81  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     57  78  61  81 /   0   0   0  10
COLUMBIA       57  84  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   59  83  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        58  82  60  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05



000
FXUS64 KOHX 262342
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
642 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL THREE
LOCATIONS. DIURNAL CU WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN RETURN TOMORROW WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
NORTHEASTERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      60  84  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    56  81  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     57  78  61  81 /   0   0   0  10
COLUMBIA       57  84  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   59  83  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        58  82  60  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05



000
FXUS64 KOHX 262342
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
642 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL THREE
LOCATIONS. DIURNAL CU WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN RETURN TOMORROW WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
NORTHEASTERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      60  84  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    56  81  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     57  78  61  81 /   0   0   0  10
COLUMBIA       57  84  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   59  83  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        58  82  60  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05



000
FXUS64 KOHX 262342
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
642 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL THREE
LOCATIONS. DIURNAL CU WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN RETURN TOMORROW WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
NORTHEASTERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      60  84  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    56  81  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     57  78  61  81 /   0   0   0  10
COLUMBIA       57  84  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   59  83  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        58  82  60  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05



000
FXUS64 KOHX 262342
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
642 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL THREE
LOCATIONS. DIURNAL CU WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN RETURN TOMORROW WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
NORTHEASTERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      60  84  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    56  81  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     57  78  61  81 /   0   0   0  10
COLUMBIA       57  84  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   59  83  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        58  82  60  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05




000
FXUS64 KOHX 262342
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
642 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL THREE
LOCATIONS. DIURNAL CU WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN RETURN TOMORROW WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
NORTHEASTERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      60  84  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    56  81  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     57  78  61  81 /   0   0   0  10
COLUMBIA       57  84  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   59  83  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        58  82  60  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05



000
FXUS64 KMRX 262324 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
724 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT EACH TERMINAL. THE ONE EXCEPTION
WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT KTRI...WHERE
SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 262324 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
724 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT EACH TERMINAL. THE ONE EXCEPTION
WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT KTRI...WHERE
SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP



000
FXUS64 KMRX 262324 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
724 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT EACH TERMINAL. THE ONE EXCEPTION
WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT KTRI...WHERE
SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 262324 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
724 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT EACH TERMINAL. THE ONE EXCEPTION
WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT KTRI...WHERE
SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP



000
FXUS64 KMEG 262310
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
610 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY AND PLEASANT
LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH ON SATURDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTTING OFF OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL RETROGRADE NORTHWESTWARD BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MID
SOUTH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ALONG WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. N/NNE
WINDS BETWEEN 8-10 KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 4 KTS OR LESS THIS
EVENING AND INCREASE TO NNE/NE WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS AFTER 27/15Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 262310
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
610 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY AND PLEASANT
LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH ON SATURDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTTING OFF OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL RETROGRADE NORTHWESTWARD BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MID
SOUTH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ALONG WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. N/NNE
WINDS BETWEEN 8-10 KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 4 KTS OR LESS THIS
EVENING AND INCREASE TO NNE/NE WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS AFTER 27/15Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 262310
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
610 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY AND PLEASANT
LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH ON SATURDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTTING OFF OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL RETROGRADE NORTHWESTWARD BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MID
SOUTH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ALONG WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. N/NNE
WINDS BETWEEN 8-10 KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 4 KTS OR LESS THIS
EVENING AND INCREASE TO NNE/NE WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS AFTER 27/15Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 261936
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
236 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY AND PLEASANT
LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH ON SATURDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTTING OFF OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL RETROGRADE NORTHWESTWARD BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MID
SOUTH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ALONG WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. N-NNE WINDS OF
8-12 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 00Z.
THEREAFTER...SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5 KTS.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 261936
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
236 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY AND PLEASANT
LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH ON SATURDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTTING OFF OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL RETROGRADE NORTHWESTWARD BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MID
SOUTH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ALONG WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. N-NNE WINDS OF
8-12 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 00Z.
THEREAFTER...SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5 KTS.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 261936
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
236 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY AND PLEASANT
LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH ON SATURDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTTING OFF OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL RETROGRADE NORTHWESTWARD BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MID
SOUTH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ALONG WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. N-NNE WINDS OF
8-12 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 00Z.
THEREAFTER...SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5 KTS.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 261936
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
236 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY AND PLEASANT
LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH ON SATURDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTTING OFF OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL RETROGRADE NORTHWESTWARD BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MID
SOUTH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ALONG WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. N-NNE WINDS OF
8-12 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 00Z.
THEREAFTER...SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5 KTS.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 261916
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
216 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WEATHER REMAINS QUIET ACROSS THE MID STATE...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OFF TO THE WEST. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TOMORROW AS WELL AS TODAY WITH BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW
KEEPING TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE. CHANCES FOR FOG MAY IMPACT THE
AREA...AND FOR NOW JUST PUT MENTION OF FOG ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND
LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

BY FRIDAY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE MORE SOUTHERLY...WHICH WILL
RAISE TEMPS BACK NEAR AVERAGE AS WELL AS BRING SOME MOISTURE BACK
TO THE REGION. THIS WILL HAPPEN DUE TO A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY AND APPROACHING TROUGH BREAKING DOWN THE
RIDGE. SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES NOT STICK AROUND LONG ENOUGH FOR
SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR PRECIP AS THE MODELS STILL HAVE WEAK QPF
SIGNATURES...BUT MAINLY HAVE POPS FOR THE PLATEAU AND JUST WEST.
NOT SURE JUST YET HOW FAR WEST THE PRECIP WILL GO...BUT AGAIN BEST
CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE ON THE PLATEAU.

BY NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER WITH THE GFS HAVING A
WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND THE ECMWF HAVING
A STRONGER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE UNCERTAINTY ON
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT PREVENTS ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCES...BUT HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN MAINLY FOR THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN PART OF
THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE REGION COULD HAVE
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE GFS BRINGING SOME TROPICAL STORM
REMNANTS OVER THE AREA AND THE ECMWF HAVING MORE OF A BROAD UPPER
LOW OVERHEAD. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND SLIGHT
CHANCE ELSEWHERE FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1230 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION UPDATE...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
OTHER THAN SOME DIURNAL SCT/BKN CU FORMING/LASTING ACROSS LOCATIONS
GENERALLY AROUND AND N OF I-40 AND W OF 1-65...PER RIDGING INFLUENCES
SFC/ALOFT...VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 27/18Z WITH GENERALLY N
SFC WINDS OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED.

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BARNWELL



000
FXUS64 KMRX 261849
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
249 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TO THE FLORIDA GULF COAST WILL TRANSLATE EAST.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND ALSO DRIFT EAST INTO PA AND NY. WEAK
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE SMOKYS COULD PRODUCE AN AFTERNOON
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF E TN AND PERHAPS SW NC. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE A SLIGHT
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
WELL AS INCREASING MAXIMUM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THURSDAY
NIGHT LOWS NOT QUITE AS COOL AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK BUT STILL A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FRIDAY IT LOOKS LIKE OUR
MAX TEMPS ARE BACK TO NORMAL AS NORTHWEST FLOW HAS EXITED AND
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOST AREAS DRY
ON FRIDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS. A WEAK LOW
MIGRATES NORTH OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY AND A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. BOTH THESE FEATURES WILL
YIELD SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE SHOWERS AND STORMS. WEAK LOW MIGRATES
WEST ON MONDAY BUT WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO STILL GENERATE SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY. LOW MOVES FURTHER WEST INTO THE
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND RESULTS IN A DROP TO MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE CWA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY WEDNESDAY...WHAT IS
CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM ERIKA LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHICH MAY SPREAD SOME HIGH CLOUDS NORTH INTO OUR
AREA. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER WE SEE ANY PRECIP FROM THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             62  86  66  86 /   0   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  60  84  63  85 /   0   0  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       60  85  64  86 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              55  83  60  84 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC/SR



000
FXUS64 KMRX 261849
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
249 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TO THE FLORIDA GULF COAST WILL TRANSLATE EAST.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND ALSO DRIFT EAST INTO PA AND NY. WEAK
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE SMOKYS COULD PRODUCE AN AFTERNOON
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF E TN AND PERHAPS SW NC. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE A SLIGHT
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
WELL AS INCREASING MAXIMUM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THURSDAY
NIGHT LOWS NOT QUITE AS COOL AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK BUT STILL A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FRIDAY IT LOOKS LIKE OUR
MAX TEMPS ARE BACK TO NORMAL AS NORTHWEST FLOW HAS EXITED AND
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOST AREAS DRY
ON FRIDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS. A WEAK LOW
MIGRATES NORTH OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY AND A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. BOTH THESE FEATURES WILL
YIELD SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE SHOWERS AND STORMS. WEAK LOW MIGRATES
WEST ON MONDAY BUT WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO STILL GENERATE SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY. LOW MOVES FURTHER WEST INTO THE
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND RESULTS IN A DROP TO MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE CWA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY WEDNESDAY...WHAT IS
CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM ERIKA LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHICH MAY SPREAD SOME HIGH CLOUDS NORTH INTO OUR
AREA. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER WE SEE ANY PRECIP FROM THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             62  86  66  86 /   0   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  60  84  63  85 /   0   0  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       60  85  64  86 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              55  83  60  84 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC/SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 261849
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
249 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TO THE FLORIDA GULF COAST WILL TRANSLATE EAST.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND ALSO DRIFT EAST INTO PA AND NY. WEAK
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE SMOKYS COULD PRODUCE AN AFTERNOON
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF E TN AND PERHAPS SW NC. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE A SLIGHT
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
WELL AS INCREASING MAXIMUM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THURSDAY
NIGHT LOWS NOT QUITE AS COOL AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK BUT STILL A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FRIDAY IT LOOKS LIKE OUR
MAX TEMPS ARE BACK TO NORMAL AS NORTHWEST FLOW HAS EXITED AND
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOST AREAS DRY
ON FRIDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS. A WEAK LOW
MIGRATES NORTH OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY AND A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. BOTH THESE FEATURES WILL
YIELD SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE SHOWERS AND STORMS. WEAK LOW MIGRATES
WEST ON MONDAY BUT WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO STILL GENERATE SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY. LOW MOVES FURTHER WEST INTO THE
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND RESULTS IN A DROP TO MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE CWA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY WEDNESDAY...WHAT IS
CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM ERIKA LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHICH MAY SPREAD SOME HIGH CLOUDS NORTH INTO OUR
AREA. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER WE SEE ANY PRECIP FROM THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             62  86  66  86 /   0   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  60  84  63  85 /   0   0  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       60  85  64  86 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              55  83  60  84 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC/SR




000
FXUS64 KOHX 261730 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1230 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
OTHER THAN SOME DIURNAL SCT/BKN CU FORMING/LASTING ACROSS LOCATIONS
GENERALLY AROUND AND N OF I-40 AND W OF 1-65...PER RIDGING INFLUENCES
SFC/ALOFT...VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 27/18Z WITH GENERALLY N
SFC WINDS OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING FROM THE ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCT. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY CONDITIONS FOR FRI AND SAT
FOR CLARITY. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...AND
WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 630 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF`S.

BNA/CKV/CSV...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW,
KEEPING MIDDLE TENNESSEE DRY AND MILD. LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE
SOMEWHAT TODAY, BUT VFR WX EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...WE`RE ENJOYING YET ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT,
WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES NOW DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S. AREA
OBS SHOW THAT SOME SPOTS ARE NEAR OR AT SATURATION. SO, WOULD NOT
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHALLOW EARLY MORNING FOG, ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS AND AROUND AREA RIVERS AND LAKES. ALTHOUGH
SHALLOW, SOME OF THAT FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.

TODAY WILL PRETTY MUCH BE A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 80S MOST OTHER AREAS.
OUR FRIENDLY EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE US SOME
NICE COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPS FOR ONE MORE NIGHT, WITH LOWS BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM...A GRADUAL WARM-UP BEGINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AS
UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST AND DAMPENS OUT, AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. BY FRIDAY, SURFACE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF OUR FA, AND
BY AFTERNOON OUR RESPITE OF NICE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE REPLACED
BY A MORE SEASONABLY MUGGY SOUTHERLY FLOW. AT THAT POINT, WE CAN
KISS OUR LOW DEW POINTS GOODBYE, WITH DEW POINTS REBOUNDING INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S BY SATURDAY MORNING.

AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP FROM THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WE WILL
ALSO PICK UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.

BY SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHING THE UPPER 80S IN
AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

LONG TERM...WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY
DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENS FURTHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR SOME TSTMS OVER WESTERN AREAS
BY MONDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ATTACHED TO
THE EXTENT OF SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THIS FRONT, ALONG WITH THE
FACT THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE MOISTURE-STARVED, WILL KEEP THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOCKED OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS FOR NOW
ON MONDAY, AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE "HOT-N-MUGGIES" WILL STICK
WITH US THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS HOLDING IN
THE UPPER 80S IN AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      83  60  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    80  58  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     76  57  78  61 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       83  58  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   83  59  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        81  59  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31



000
FXUS64 KOHX 261730 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1230 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
OTHER THAN SOME DIURNAL SCT/BKN CU FORMING/LASTING ACROSS LOCATIONS
GENERALLY AROUND AND N OF I-40 AND W OF 1-65...PER RIDGING INFLUENCES
SFC/ALOFT...VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 27/18Z WITH GENERALLY N
SFC WINDS OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING FROM THE ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCT. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY CONDITIONS FOR FRI AND SAT
FOR CLARITY. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...AND
WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 630 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF`S.

BNA/CKV/CSV...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW,
KEEPING MIDDLE TENNESSEE DRY AND MILD. LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE
SOMEWHAT TODAY, BUT VFR WX EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...WE`RE ENJOYING YET ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT,
WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES NOW DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S. AREA
OBS SHOW THAT SOME SPOTS ARE NEAR OR AT SATURATION. SO, WOULD NOT
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHALLOW EARLY MORNING FOG, ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS AND AROUND AREA RIVERS AND LAKES. ALTHOUGH
SHALLOW, SOME OF THAT FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.

TODAY WILL PRETTY MUCH BE A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 80S MOST OTHER AREAS.
OUR FRIENDLY EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE US SOME
NICE COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPS FOR ONE MORE NIGHT, WITH LOWS BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM...A GRADUAL WARM-UP BEGINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AS
UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST AND DAMPENS OUT, AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. BY FRIDAY, SURFACE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF OUR FA, AND
BY AFTERNOON OUR RESPITE OF NICE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE REPLACED
BY A MORE SEASONABLY MUGGY SOUTHERLY FLOW. AT THAT POINT, WE CAN
KISS OUR LOW DEW POINTS GOODBYE, WITH DEW POINTS REBOUNDING INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S BY SATURDAY MORNING.

AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP FROM THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WE WILL
ALSO PICK UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.

BY SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHING THE UPPER 80S IN
AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

LONG TERM...WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY
DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENS FURTHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR SOME TSTMS OVER WESTERN AREAS
BY MONDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ATTACHED TO
THE EXTENT OF SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THIS FRONT, ALONG WITH THE
FACT THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE MOISTURE-STARVED, WILL KEEP THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOCKED OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS FOR NOW
ON MONDAY, AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE "HOT-N-MUGGIES" WILL STICK
WITH US THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS HOLDING IN
THE UPPER 80S IN AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      83  60  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    80  58  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     76  57  78  61 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       83  58  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   83  59  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        81  59  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31




000
FXUS64 KOHX 261730 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1230 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
OTHER THAN SOME DIURNAL SCT/BKN CU FORMING/LASTING ACROSS LOCATIONS
GENERALLY AROUND AND N OF I-40 AND W OF 1-65...PER RIDGING INFLUENCES
SFC/ALOFT...VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 27/18Z WITH GENERALLY N
SFC WINDS OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING FROM THE ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCT. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY CONDITIONS FOR FRI AND SAT
FOR CLARITY. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...AND
WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 630 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF`S.

BNA/CKV/CSV...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW,
KEEPING MIDDLE TENNESSEE DRY AND MILD. LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE
SOMEWHAT TODAY, BUT VFR WX EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...WE`RE ENJOYING YET ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT,
WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES NOW DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S. AREA
OBS SHOW THAT SOME SPOTS ARE NEAR OR AT SATURATION. SO, WOULD NOT
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHALLOW EARLY MORNING FOG, ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS AND AROUND AREA RIVERS AND LAKES. ALTHOUGH
SHALLOW, SOME OF THAT FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.

TODAY WILL PRETTY MUCH BE A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 80S MOST OTHER AREAS.
OUR FRIENDLY EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE US SOME
NICE COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPS FOR ONE MORE NIGHT, WITH LOWS BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM...A GRADUAL WARM-UP BEGINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AS
UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST AND DAMPENS OUT, AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. BY FRIDAY, SURFACE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF OUR FA, AND
BY AFTERNOON OUR RESPITE OF NICE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE REPLACED
BY A MORE SEASONABLY MUGGY SOUTHERLY FLOW. AT THAT POINT, WE CAN
KISS OUR LOW DEW POINTS GOODBYE, WITH DEW POINTS REBOUNDING INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S BY SATURDAY MORNING.

AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP FROM THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WE WILL
ALSO PICK UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.

BY SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHING THE UPPER 80S IN
AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

LONG TERM...WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY
DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENS FURTHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR SOME TSTMS OVER WESTERN AREAS
BY MONDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ATTACHED TO
THE EXTENT OF SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THIS FRONT, ALONG WITH THE
FACT THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE MOISTURE-STARVED, WILL KEEP THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOCKED OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS FOR NOW
ON MONDAY, AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE "HOT-N-MUGGIES" WILL STICK
WITH US THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS HOLDING IN
THE UPPER 80S IN AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      83  60  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    80  58  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     76  57  78  61 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       83  58  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   83  59  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        81  59  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31




000
FXUS64 KMRX 261726
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
126 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 27/10Z. LOW CONFIDENCE FOG DEVELOPING AT KTRI BEFORE SUNRISE
TO AROUND 13Z BEFORE A SCATTERED DECK FORMS AROUND 3KFT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST...SHIFTING NORTHEAST/EAST BY
LATE THU MORNING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC




000
FXUS64 KMRX 261726
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
126 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 27/10Z. LOW CONFIDENCE FOG DEVELOPING AT KTRI BEFORE SUNRISE
TO AROUND 13Z BEFORE A SCATTERED DECK FORMS AROUND 3KFT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST...SHIFTING NORTHEAST/EAST BY
LATE THU MORNING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC




000
FXUS64 KMRX 261726
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
126 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 27/10Z. LOW CONFIDENCE FOG DEVELOPING AT KTRI BEFORE SUNRISE
TO AROUND 13Z BEFORE A SCATTERED DECK FORMS AROUND 3KFT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST...SHIFTING NORTHEAST/EAST BY
LATE THU MORNING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC



000
FXUS64 KMEG 261711
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1211 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE... /ISSUED 952 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY.
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUNNY SKIES. THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO NO
CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH NO EXPECTED ADJECTIVE
CHANGE FOR TOMORROW EITHER. CURRENTLY THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM 50F IN PARIS TENNESSEE TO 65F AT THE MEMPHIS AIRPORT.
WINDS WERE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH CLEAR SKIES
ABOUNDING. RECORD LOWS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

THE NEXT 48 HOURS...MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR WILL PREVAIL KEEPING
HUMIDITY LOW...SKIES CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY WARM THIS
PERIOD AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND WEAK WAA IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AT...OR A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE NORMAL. A FEW PASSING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS A PLAINS
SHORTWAVE EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW ALONG IT` TRACK FROM NEBRASKA
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE BRUNT
OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDWEST...BUT A STRAY SHOWER
OR STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. AS
THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
SOME RETURN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A STORM OR TWO ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. OTHERWISE THE WEEKEND APPEARS DRY FOR MOST.

TUESDAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD IS DEPENDENT ON TS ERIKA.
THE 26/00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE CYCLONE HOLDING TOGETHER WITH A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK AND AN IMPACT TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHILE THE
GFS WEAKENS THE CIRCULATION DUE TO DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR...LEAVING
THE REMNANTS/MOISTURE TO SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND GULF. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT TUESDAY DRY FOR THE MIDSOUTH AS
SUBSIDENCE OUT AHEAD OF ERIKA IS LIKELY. DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F WOULD
GENERATE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE 95F TO 100F RANGE. BETTER
CHANCES WILL START WEDNESDAY BASED OFF BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. N-NNE WINDS OF
8-12 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 00Z.
THEREAFTER...SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5 KTS.

KRM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 261711
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1211 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE... /ISSUED 952 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY.
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUNNY SKIES. THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO NO
CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH NO EXPECTED ADJECTIVE
CHANGE FOR TOMORROW EITHER. CURRENTLY THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM 50F IN PARIS TENNESSEE TO 65F AT THE MEMPHIS AIRPORT.
WINDS WERE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH CLEAR SKIES
ABOUNDING. RECORD LOWS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

THE NEXT 48 HOURS...MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR WILL PREVAIL KEEPING
HUMIDITY LOW...SKIES CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY WARM THIS
PERIOD AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND WEAK WAA IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AT...OR A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE NORMAL. A FEW PASSING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS A PLAINS
SHORTWAVE EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW ALONG IT` TRACK FROM NEBRASKA
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE BRUNT
OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDWEST...BUT A STRAY SHOWER
OR STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. AS
THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
SOME RETURN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A STORM OR TWO ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. OTHERWISE THE WEEKEND APPEARS DRY FOR MOST.

TUESDAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD IS DEPENDENT ON TS ERIKA.
THE 26/00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE CYCLONE HOLDING TOGETHER WITH A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK AND AN IMPACT TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHILE THE
GFS WEAKENS THE CIRCULATION DUE TO DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR...LEAVING
THE REMNANTS/MOISTURE TO SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND GULF. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT TUESDAY DRY FOR THE MIDSOUTH AS
SUBSIDENCE OUT AHEAD OF ERIKA IS LIKELY. DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F WOULD
GENERATE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE 95F TO 100F RANGE. BETTER
CHANCES WILL START WEDNESDAY BASED OFF BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. N-NNE WINDS OF
8-12 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 00Z.
THEREAFTER...SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5 KTS.

KRM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 261711
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1211 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE... /ISSUED 952 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY.
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUNNY SKIES. THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO NO
CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH NO EXPECTED ADJECTIVE
CHANGE FOR TOMORROW EITHER. CURRENTLY THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM 50F IN PARIS TENNESSEE TO 65F AT THE MEMPHIS AIRPORT.
WINDS WERE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH CLEAR SKIES
ABOUNDING. RECORD LOWS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

THE NEXT 48 HOURS...MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR WILL PREVAIL KEEPING
HUMIDITY LOW...SKIES CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY WARM THIS
PERIOD AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND WEAK WAA IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AT...OR A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE NORMAL. A FEW PASSING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS A PLAINS
SHORTWAVE EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW ALONG IT` TRACK FROM NEBRASKA
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE BRUNT
OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDWEST...BUT A STRAY SHOWER
OR STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. AS
THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
SOME RETURN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A STORM OR TWO ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. OTHERWISE THE WEEKEND APPEARS DRY FOR MOST.

TUESDAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD IS DEPENDENT ON TS ERIKA.
THE 26/00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE CYCLONE HOLDING TOGETHER WITH A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK AND AN IMPACT TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHILE THE
GFS WEAKENS THE CIRCULATION DUE TO DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR...LEAVING
THE REMNANTS/MOISTURE TO SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND GULF. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT TUESDAY DRY FOR THE MIDSOUTH AS
SUBSIDENCE OUT AHEAD OF ERIKA IS LIKELY. DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F WOULD
GENERATE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE 95F TO 100F RANGE. BETTER
CHANCES WILL START WEDNESDAY BASED OFF BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. N-NNE WINDS OF
8-12 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 00Z.
THEREAFTER...SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5 KTS.

KRM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 261452
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
952 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...

NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY.
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUNNY SKIES. THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO NO
CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH NO EXPECTED ADJECTIVE
CHANGE FOR TOMORROW EITHER. CURRENTLY THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM 50F IN PARIS TENNESSEE TO 65F AT THE MEMPHIS AIRPORT.
WINDS WERE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH CLEAR SKIES
ABOUNDING. RECORD LOWS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

THE NEXT 48 HOURS...MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR WILL PREVAIL KEEPING
HUMIDITY LOW...SKIES CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY WARM THIS
PERIOD AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND WEAK WAA IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AT...OR A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE NORMAL. A FEW PASSING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS A PLAINS
SHORTWAVE EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW ALONG IT` TRACK FROM NEBRASKA
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE BRUNT
OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDWEST...BUT A STRAY SHOWER
OR STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. AS
THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
SOME RETURN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A STORM OR TWO ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. OTHERWISE THE WEEKEND APPEARS DRY FOR MOST.

TUESDAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD IS DEPENDENT ON TS ERIKA.
THE 26/00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE CYCLONE HOLDING TOGETHER WITH A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK AND AN IMPACT TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHILE THE
GFS WEAKENS THE CIRCULATION DUE TO DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR...LEAVING
THE REMNANTS/MOISTURE TO SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND GULF. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT TUESDAY DRY FOR THE MIDSOUTH AS
SUBSIDENCE OUT AHEAD OF ERIKA IS LIKELY. DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F WOULD
GENERATE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE 95F TO 100F RANGE. BETTER
CHANCES WILL START WEDNESDAY BASED OFF BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (26/12Z-27/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. N-NE WINDS TODAY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8
AND 12 KTS. WINDS TONIGHT NE 5 KTS OR LESS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 261452
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
952 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...

NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY.
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUNNY SKIES. THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO NO
CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH NO EXPECTED ADJECTIVE
CHANGE FOR TOMORROW EITHER. CURRENTLY THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM 50F IN PARIS TENNESSEE TO 65F AT THE MEMPHIS AIRPORT.
WINDS WERE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH CLEAR SKIES
ABOUNDING. RECORD LOWS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

THE NEXT 48 HOURS...MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR WILL PREVAIL KEEPING
HUMIDITY LOW...SKIES CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY WARM THIS
PERIOD AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND WEAK WAA IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AT...OR A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE NORMAL. A FEW PASSING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS A PLAINS
SHORTWAVE EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW ALONG IT` TRACK FROM NEBRASKA
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE BRUNT
OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDWEST...BUT A STRAY SHOWER
OR STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. AS
THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
SOME RETURN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A STORM OR TWO ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. OTHERWISE THE WEEKEND APPEARS DRY FOR MOST.

TUESDAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD IS DEPENDENT ON TS ERIKA.
THE 26/00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE CYCLONE HOLDING TOGETHER WITH A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK AND AN IMPACT TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHILE THE
GFS WEAKENS THE CIRCULATION DUE TO DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR...LEAVING
THE REMNANTS/MOISTURE TO SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND GULF. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT TUESDAY DRY FOR THE MIDSOUTH AS
SUBSIDENCE OUT AHEAD OF ERIKA IS LIKELY. DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F WOULD
GENERATE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE 95F TO 100F RANGE. BETTER
CHANCES WILL START WEDNESDAY BASED OFF BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (26/12Z-27/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. N-NE WINDS TODAY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8
AND 12 KTS. WINDS TONIGHT NE 5 KTS OR LESS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 261452
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
952 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...

NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY.
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUNNY SKIES. THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO NO
CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH NO EXPECTED ADJECTIVE
CHANGE FOR TOMORROW EITHER. CURRENTLY THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM 50F IN PARIS TENNESSEE TO 65F AT THE MEMPHIS AIRPORT.
WINDS WERE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH CLEAR SKIES
ABOUNDING. RECORD LOWS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

THE NEXT 48 HOURS...MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR WILL PREVAIL KEEPING
HUMIDITY LOW...SKIES CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY WARM THIS
PERIOD AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND WEAK WAA IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AT...OR A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE NORMAL. A FEW PASSING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS A PLAINS
SHORTWAVE EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW ALONG IT` TRACK FROM NEBRASKA
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE BRUNT
OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDWEST...BUT A STRAY SHOWER
OR STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. AS
THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
SOME RETURN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A STORM OR TWO ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. OTHERWISE THE WEEKEND APPEARS DRY FOR MOST.

TUESDAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD IS DEPENDENT ON TS ERIKA.
THE 26/00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE CYCLONE HOLDING TOGETHER WITH A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK AND AN IMPACT TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHILE THE
GFS WEAKENS THE CIRCULATION DUE TO DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR...LEAVING
THE REMNANTS/MOISTURE TO SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND GULF. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT TUESDAY DRY FOR THE MIDSOUTH AS
SUBSIDENCE OUT AHEAD OF ERIKA IS LIKELY. DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F WOULD
GENERATE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE 95F TO 100F RANGE. BETTER
CHANCES WILL START WEDNESDAY BASED OFF BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (26/12Z-27/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. N-NE WINDS TODAY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8
AND 12 KTS. WINDS TONIGHT NE 5 KTS OR LESS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 261452
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
952 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...

NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY.
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUNNY SKIES. THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO NO
CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH NO EXPECTED ADJECTIVE
CHANGE FOR TOMORROW EITHER. CURRENTLY THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM 50F IN PARIS TENNESSEE TO 65F AT THE MEMPHIS AIRPORT.
WINDS WERE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH CLEAR SKIES
ABOUNDING. RECORD LOWS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

THE NEXT 48 HOURS...MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR WILL PREVAIL KEEPING
HUMIDITY LOW...SKIES CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY WARM THIS
PERIOD AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND WEAK WAA IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AT...OR A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE NORMAL. A FEW PASSING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS A PLAINS
SHORTWAVE EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW ALONG IT` TRACK FROM NEBRASKA
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE BRUNT
OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDWEST...BUT A STRAY SHOWER
OR STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. AS
THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
SOME RETURN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A STORM OR TWO ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. OTHERWISE THE WEEKEND APPEARS DRY FOR MOST.

TUESDAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD IS DEPENDENT ON TS ERIKA.
THE 26/00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE CYCLONE HOLDING TOGETHER WITH A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK AND AN IMPACT TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHILE THE
GFS WEAKENS THE CIRCULATION DUE TO DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR...LEAVING
THE REMNANTS/MOISTURE TO SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND GULF. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT TUESDAY DRY FOR THE MIDSOUTH AS
SUBSIDENCE OUT AHEAD OF ERIKA IS LIKELY. DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F WOULD
GENERATE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE 95F TO 100F RANGE. BETTER
CHANCES WILL START WEDNESDAY BASED OFF BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (26/12Z-27/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. N-NE WINDS TODAY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8
AND 12 KTS. WINDS TONIGHT NE 5 KTS OR LESS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 261400 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
900 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING FROM THE ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCT. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY CONDITIONS FOR FRI AND SAT
FOR CLARITY. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...AND
WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 630 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF`S.

BNA/CKV/CSV...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW,
KEEPING MIDDLE TENNESSEE DRY AND MILD. LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE
SOMEWHAT TODAY, BUT VFR WX EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...WE`RE ENJOYING YET ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT,
WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES NOW DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S. AREA
OBS SHOW THAT SOME SPOTS ARE NEAR OR AT SATURATION. SO, WOULD NOT
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHALLOW EARLY MORNING FOG, ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS AND AROUND AREA RIVERS AND LAKES. ALTHOUGH
SHALLOW, SOME OF THAT FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.

TODAY WILL PRETTY MUCH BE A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 80S MOST OTHER AREAS.
OUR FRIENDLY EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE US SOME
NICE COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPS FOR ONE MORE NIGHT, WITH LOWS BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM...A GRADUAL WARM-UP BEGINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AS
UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST AND DAMPENS OUT, AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. BY FRIDAY, SURFACE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF OUR FA, AND
BY AFTERNOON OUR RESPITE OF NICE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE REPLACED
BY A MORE SEASONABLY MUGGY SOUTHERLY FLOW. AT THAT POINT, WE CAN
KISS OUR LOW DEW POINTS GOODBYE, WITH DEW POINTS REBOUNDING INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S BY SATURDAY MORNING.

AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP FROM THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WE WILL
ALSO PICK UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.

BY SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHING THE UPPER 80S IN
AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

LONG TERM...WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY
DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENS FURTHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR SOME TSTMS OVER WESTERN AREAS
BY MONDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ATTACHED TO
THE EXTENT OF SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THIS FRONT, ALONG WITH THE
FACT THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE MOISTURE-STARVED, WILL KEEP THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOCKED OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS FOR NOW
ON MONDAY, AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE "HOT-N-MUGGIES" WILL STICK
WITH US THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS HOLDING IN
THE UPPER 80S IN AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      83  60  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    80  58  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     76  57  78  61 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       83  58  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   83  59  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        81  59  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31



000
FXUS64 KOHX 261400 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
900 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING FROM THE ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCT. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY CONDITIONS FOR FRI AND SAT
FOR CLARITY. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...AND
WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 630 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF`S.

BNA/CKV/CSV...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW,
KEEPING MIDDLE TENNESSEE DRY AND MILD. LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE
SOMEWHAT TODAY, BUT VFR WX EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...WE`RE ENJOYING YET ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT,
WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES NOW DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S. AREA
OBS SHOW THAT SOME SPOTS ARE NEAR OR AT SATURATION. SO, WOULD NOT
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHALLOW EARLY MORNING FOG, ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS AND AROUND AREA RIVERS AND LAKES. ALTHOUGH
SHALLOW, SOME OF THAT FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.

TODAY WILL PRETTY MUCH BE A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 80S MOST OTHER AREAS.
OUR FRIENDLY EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE US SOME
NICE COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPS FOR ONE MORE NIGHT, WITH LOWS BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM...A GRADUAL WARM-UP BEGINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AS
UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST AND DAMPENS OUT, AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. BY FRIDAY, SURFACE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF OUR FA, AND
BY AFTERNOON OUR RESPITE OF NICE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE REPLACED
BY A MORE SEASONABLY MUGGY SOUTHERLY FLOW. AT THAT POINT, WE CAN
KISS OUR LOW DEW POINTS GOODBYE, WITH DEW POINTS REBOUNDING INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S BY SATURDAY MORNING.

AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP FROM THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WE WILL
ALSO PICK UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.

BY SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHING THE UPPER 80S IN
AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

LONG TERM...WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY
DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENS FURTHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR SOME TSTMS OVER WESTERN AREAS
BY MONDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ATTACHED TO
THE EXTENT OF SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THIS FRONT, ALONG WITH THE
FACT THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE MOISTURE-STARVED, WILL KEEP THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOCKED OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS FOR NOW
ON MONDAY, AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE "HOT-N-MUGGIES" WILL STICK
WITH US THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS HOLDING IN
THE UPPER 80S IN AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      83  60  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    80  58  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     76  57  78  61 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       83  58  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   83  59  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        81  59  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31




000
FXUS64 KOHX 261400 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
900 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING FROM THE ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCT. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY CONDITIONS FOR FRI AND SAT
FOR CLARITY. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...AND
WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 630 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF`S.

BNA/CKV/CSV...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW,
KEEPING MIDDLE TENNESSEE DRY AND MILD. LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE
SOMEWHAT TODAY, BUT VFR WX EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...WE`RE ENJOYING YET ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT,
WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES NOW DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S. AREA
OBS SHOW THAT SOME SPOTS ARE NEAR OR AT SATURATION. SO, WOULD NOT
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHALLOW EARLY MORNING FOG, ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS AND AROUND AREA RIVERS AND LAKES. ALTHOUGH
SHALLOW, SOME OF THAT FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.

TODAY WILL PRETTY MUCH BE A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 80S MOST OTHER AREAS.
OUR FRIENDLY EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE US SOME
NICE COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPS FOR ONE MORE NIGHT, WITH LOWS BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM...A GRADUAL WARM-UP BEGINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AS
UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST AND DAMPENS OUT, AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. BY FRIDAY, SURFACE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF OUR FA, AND
BY AFTERNOON OUR RESPITE OF NICE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE REPLACED
BY A MORE SEASONABLY MUGGY SOUTHERLY FLOW. AT THAT POINT, WE CAN
KISS OUR LOW DEW POINTS GOODBYE, WITH DEW POINTS REBOUNDING INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S BY SATURDAY MORNING.

AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP FROM THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WE WILL
ALSO PICK UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.

BY SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHING THE UPPER 80S IN
AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

LONG TERM...WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY
DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENS FURTHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR SOME TSTMS OVER WESTERN AREAS
BY MONDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ATTACHED TO
THE EXTENT OF SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THIS FRONT, ALONG WITH THE
FACT THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE MOISTURE-STARVED, WILL KEEP THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOCKED OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS FOR NOW
ON MONDAY, AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE "HOT-N-MUGGIES" WILL STICK
WITH US THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS HOLDING IN
THE UPPER 80S IN AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      83  60  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    80  58  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     76  57  78  61 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       83  58  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   83  59  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        81  59  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31



000
FXUS64 KOHX 261400 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
900 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING FROM THE ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCT. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY CONDITIONS FOR FRI AND SAT
FOR CLARITY. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...AND
WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 630 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF`S.

BNA/CKV/CSV...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW,
KEEPING MIDDLE TENNESSEE DRY AND MILD. LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE
SOMEWHAT TODAY, BUT VFR WX EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...WE`RE ENJOYING YET ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT,
WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES NOW DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S. AREA
OBS SHOW THAT SOME SPOTS ARE NEAR OR AT SATURATION. SO, WOULD NOT
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHALLOW EARLY MORNING FOG, ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS AND AROUND AREA RIVERS AND LAKES. ALTHOUGH
SHALLOW, SOME OF THAT FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.

TODAY WILL PRETTY MUCH BE A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 80S MOST OTHER AREAS.
OUR FRIENDLY EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE US SOME
NICE COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPS FOR ONE MORE NIGHT, WITH LOWS BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM...A GRADUAL WARM-UP BEGINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AS
UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST AND DAMPENS OUT, AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. BY FRIDAY, SURFACE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF OUR FA, AND
BY AFTERNOON OUR RESPITE OF NICE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE REPLACED
BY A MORE SEASONABLY MUGGY SOUTHERLY FLOW. AT THAT POINT, WE CAN
KISS OUR LOW DEW POINTS GOODBYE, WITH DEW POINTS REBOUNDING INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S BY SATURDAY MORNING.

AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP FROM THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WE WILL
ALSO PICK UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.

BY SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHING THE UPPER 80S IN
AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

LONG TERM...WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY
DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENS FURTHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR SOME TSTMS OVER WESTERN AREAS
BY MONDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ATTACHED TO
THE EXTENT OF SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THIS FRONT, ALONG WITH THE
FACT THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE MOISTURE-STARVED, WILL KEEP THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOCKED OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS FOR NOW
ON MONDAY, AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE "HOT-N-MUGGIES" WILL STICK
WITH US THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS HOLDING IN
THE UPPER 80S IN AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      83  60  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    80  58  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     76  57  78  61 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       83  58  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   83  59  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        81  59  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31




000
FXUS64 KMRX 261340
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
940 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER DAY IN PROGRESS. EXPECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS
TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY LEVEL WILL ONCE AGAIN GIVE A TASTE OF FALL WEATHER A
COUPLE MONTHS EARLY. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY...HOURLY
TEMPS/DPTS...APPARENT TEMP AND RH. OVERALL A GREAT DAY WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             83  63  86  66 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  60  84  64 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       81  60  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              79  55  83  58 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC



000
FXUS64 KMRX 261340
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
940 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER DAY IN PROGRESS. EXPECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS
TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY LEVEL WILL ONCE AGAIN GIVE A TASTE OF FALL WEATHER A
COUPLE MONTHS EARLY. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY...HOURLY
TEMPS/DPTS...APPARENT TEMP AND RH. OVERALL A GREAT DAY WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             83  63  86  66 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  60  84  64 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       81  60  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              79  55  83  58 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC



000
FXUS64 KMRX 261340
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
940 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER DAY IN PROGRESS. EXPECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS
TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY LEVEL WILL ONCE AGAIN GIVE A TASTE OF FALL WEATHER A
COUPLE MONTHS EARLY. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY...HOURLY
TEMPS/DPTS...APPARENT TEMP AND RH. OVERALL A GREAT DAY WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             83  63  86  66 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  60  84  64 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       81  60  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              79  55  83  58 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC



000
FXUS64 KMRX 261340
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
940 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER DAY IN PROGRESS. EXPECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS
TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY LEVEL WILL ONCE AGAIN GIVE A TASTE OF FALL WEATHER A
COUPLE MONTHS EARLY. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY...HOURLY
TEMPS/DPTS...APPARENT TEMP AND RH. OVERALL A GREAT DAY WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             83  63  86  66 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  60  84  64 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       81  60  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              79  55  83  58 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC



000
FXUS64 KMRX 261340
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
940 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER DAY IN PROGRESS. EXPECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS
TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY LEVEL WILL ONCE AGAIN GIVE A TASTE OF FALL WEATHER A
COUPLE MONTHS EARLY. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY...HOURLY
TEMPS/DPTS...APPARENT TEMP AND RH. OVERALL A GREAT DAY WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             83  63  86  66 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  60  84  64 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       81  60  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              79  55  83  58 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC



000
FXUS64 KMRX 261340
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
940 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER DAY IN PROGRESS. EXPECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS
TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY LEVEL WILL ONCE AGAIN GIVE A TASTE OF FALL WEATHER A
COUPLE MONTHS EARLY. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY...HOURLY
TEMPS/DPTS...APPARENT TEMP AND RH. OVERALL A GREAT DAY WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             83  63  86  66 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  60  84  64 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       81  60  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              79  55  83  58 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC




000
FXUS64 KOHX 261130
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
630 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF`S.

BNA/CKV/CSV...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW,
KEEPING MIDDLE TENNESSEE DRY AND MILD. LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE
SOMEWHAT TODAY, BUT VFR WX EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...WE`RE ENJOYING YET ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT,
WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES NOW DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S. AREA
OBS SHOW THAT SOME SPOTS ARE NEAR OR AT SATURATION. SO, WOULD NOT
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHALLOW EARLY MORNING FOG, ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS AND AROUND AREA RIVERS AND LAKES. ALTHOUGH
SHALLOW, SOME OF THAT FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.

TODAY WILL PRETTY MUCH BE A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 80S MOST OTHER AREAS.
OUR FRIENDLY EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE US SOME
NICE COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPS FOR ONE MORE NIGHT, WITH LOWS BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM...A GRADUAL WARM-UP BEGINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AS
UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST AND DAMPENS OUT, AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. BY FRIDAY, SURFACE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF OUR FA, AND
BY AFTERNOON OUR RESPITE OF NICE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE REPLACED
BY A MORE SEASONABLY MUGGY SOUTHERLY FLOW. AT THAT POINT, WE CAN
KISS OUR LOW DEW POINTS GOODBYE, WITH DEW POINTS REBOUNDING INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S BY SATURDAY MORNING.

AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP FROM THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WE WILL
ALSO PICK UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.

BY SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHING THE UPPER 80S IN
AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

LONG TERM...WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY
DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENS FURTHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR SOME TSTMS OVER WESTERN AREAS
BY MONDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ATTACHED TO
THE EXTENT OF SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THIS FRONT, ALONG WITH THE
FACT THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE MOISTURE-STARVED, WILL KEEP THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOCKED OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS FOR NOW
ON MONDAY, AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE "HOT-N-MUGGIES" WILL STICK
WITH US THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS HOLDING IN
THE UPPER 80S IN AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      83  60  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    80  58  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     76  57  78  61 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       83  58  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   83  59  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        81  59  82  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08




000
FXUS64 KOHX 261130
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
630 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF`S.

BNA/CKV/CSV...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW,
KEEPING MIDDLE TENNESSEE DRY AND MILD. LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE
SOMEWHAT TODAY, BUT VFR WX EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...WE`RE ENJOYING YET ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT,
WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES NOW DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S. AREA
OBS SHOW THAT SOME SPOTS ARE NEAR OR AT SATURATION. SO, WOULD NOT
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHALLOW EARLY MORNING FOG, ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS AND AROUND AREA RIVERS AND LAKES. ALTHOUGH
SHALLOW, SOME OF THAT FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.

TODAY WILL PRETTY MUCH BE A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 80S MOST OTHER AREAS.
OUR FRIENDLY EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE US SOME
NICE COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPS FOR ONE MORE NIGHT, WITH LOWS BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM...A GRADUAL WARM-UP BEGINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AS
UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST AND DAMPENS OUT, AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. BY FRIDAY, SURFACE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF OUR FA, AND
BY AFTERNOON OUR RESPITE OF NICE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE REPLACED
BY A MORE SEASONABLY MUGGY SOUTHERLY FLOW. AT THAT POINT, WE CAN
KISS OUR LOW DEW POINTS GOODBYE, WITH DEW POINTS REBOUNDING INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S BY SATURDAY MORNING.

AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP FROM THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WE WILL
ALSO PICK UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.

BY SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHING THE UPPER 80S IN
AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

LONG TERM...WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY
DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENS FURTHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR SOME TSTMS OVER WESTERN AREAS
BY MONDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ATTACHED TO
THE EXTENT OF SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THIS FRONT, ALONG WITH THE
FACT THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE MOISTURE-STARVED, WILL KEEP THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOCKED OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS FOR NOW
ON MONDAY, AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE "HOT-N-MUGGIES" WILL STICK
WITH US THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS HOLDING IN
THE UPPER 80S IN AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      83  60  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    80  58  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     76  57  78  61 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       83  58  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   83  59  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        81  59  82  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08



000
FXUS64 KOHX 261130
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
630 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF`S.

BNA/CKV/CSV...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW,
KEEPING MIDDLE TENNESSEE DRY AND MILD. LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE
SOMEWHAT TODAY, BUT VFR WX EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...WE`RE ENJOYING YET ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT,
WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES NOW DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S. AREA
OBS SHOW THAT SOME SPOTS ARE NEAR OR AT SATURATION. SO, WOULD NOT
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHALLOW EARLY MORNING FOG, ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS AND AROUND AREA RIVERS AND LAKES. ALTHOUGH
SHALLOW, SOME OF THAT FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.

TODAY WILL PRETTY MUCH BE A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 80S MOST OTHER AREAS.
OUR FRIENDLY EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE US SOME
NICE COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPS FOR ONE MORE NIGHT, WITH LOWS BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM...A GRADUAL WARM-UP BEGINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AS
UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST AND DAMPENS OUT, AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. BY FRIDAY, SURFACE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF OUR FA, AND
BY AFTERNOON OUR RESPITE OF NICE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE REPLACED
BY A MORE SEASONABLY MUGGY SOUTHERLY FLOW. AT THAT POINT, WE CAN
KISS OUR LOW DEW POINTS GOODBYE, WITH DEW POINTS REBOUNDING INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S BY SATURDAY MORNING.

AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP FROM THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WE WILL
ALSO PICK UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.

BY SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHING THE UPPER 80S IN
AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

LONG TERM...WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY
DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENS FURTHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR SOME TSTMS OVER WESTERN AREAS
BY MONDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ATTACHED TO
THE EXTENT OF SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THIS FRONT, ALONG WITH THE
FACT THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE MOISTURE-STARVED, WILL KEEP THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOCKED OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS FOR NOW
ON MONDAY, AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE "HOT-N-MUGGIES" WILL STICK
WITH US THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS HOLDING IN
THE UPPER 80S IN AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      83  60  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    80  58  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     76  57  78  61 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       83  58  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   83  59  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        81  59  82  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08



000
FXUS64 KOHX 261130
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
630 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF`S.

BNA/CKV/CSV...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW,
KEEPING MIDDLE TENNESSEE DRY AND MILD. LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE
SOMEWHAT TODAY, BUT VFR WX EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...WE`RE ENJOYING YET ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT,
WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES NOW DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S. AREA
OBS SHOW THAT SOME SPOTS ARE NEAR OR AT SATURATION. SO, WOULD NOT
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHALLOW EARLY MORNING FOG, ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS AND AROUND AREA RIVERS AND LAKES. ALTHOUGH
SHALLOW, SOME OF THAT FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.

TODAY WILL PRETTY MUCH BE A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 80S MOST OTHER AREAS.
OUR FRIENDLY EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE US SOME
NICE COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPS FOR ONE MORE NIGHT, WITH LOWS BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM...A GRADUAL WARM-UP BEGINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AS
UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST AND DAMPENS OUT, AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. BY FRIDAY, SURFACE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF OUR FA, AND
BY AFTERNOON OUR RESPITE OF NICE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE REPLACED
BY A MORE SEASONABLY MUGGY SOUTHERLY FLOW. AT THAT POINT, WE CAN
KISS OUR LOW DEW POINTS GOODBYE, WITH DEW POINTS REBOUNDING INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S BY SATURDAY MORNING.

AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP FROM THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WE WILL
ALSO PICK UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.

BY SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHING THE UPPER 80S IN
AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

LONG TERM...WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY
DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENS FURTHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR SOME TSTMS OVER WESTERN AREAS
BY MONDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ATTACHED TO
THE EXTENT OF SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THIS FRONT, ALONG WITH THE
FACT THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE MOISTURE-STARVED, WILL KEEP THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOCKED OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS FOR NOW
ON MONDAY, AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE "HOT-N-MUGGIES" WILL STICK
WITH US THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS HOLDING IN
THE UPPER 80S IN AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      83  60  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    80  58  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     76  57  78  61 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       83  58  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   83  59  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        81  59  82  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08




000
FXUS64 KMRX 261124
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
723 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE AREA WEATHER.
IT WILL BE A SUNNY DAY WITH A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU...VFR CONDITIONS
AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT.  OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...CONTINUED QUIET
CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 261124
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
723 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE AREA WEATHER.
IT WILL BE A SUNNY DAY WITH A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU...VFR CONDITIONS
AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT.  OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...CONTINUED QUIET
CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB



000
FXUS64 KMRX 261124
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
723 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE AREA WEATHER.
IT WILL BE A SUNNY DAY WITH A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU...VFR CONDITIONS
AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT.  OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...CONTINUED QUIET
CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 261124
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
723 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE AREA WEATHER.
IT WILL BE A SUNNY DAY WITH A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU...VFR CONDITIONS
AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT.  OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...CONTINUED QUIET
CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB



000
FXUS64 KMEG 261045 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
545 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 306 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH NO EXPECTED ADJECTIVE
CHANGE FOR TOMORROW EITHER. CURRENTLY THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM 50F IN PARIS TENNESSEE TO 65F AT THE MEMPHIS AIRPORT.
WINDS WERE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH CLEAR SKIES
ABOUNDING. RECORD LOWS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

THE NEXT 48 HOURS...MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR WILL PREVAIL KEEPING
HUMIDITY LOW...SKIES CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY WARM THIS
PERIOD AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND WEAK WAA IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AT...OR A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE NORMAL. A FEW PASSING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS A PLAINS
SHORTWAVE EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW ALONG IT` TRACK FROM NEBRASKA
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE BRUNT
OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDWEST...BUT A STRAY SHOWER
OR STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. AS
THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
SOME RETURN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A STORM OR TWO ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. OTHERWISE THE WEEKEND APPEARS DRY FOR MOST.

TUESDAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD IS DEPENDENT ON TS ERIKA.
THE 26/00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE CYCLONE HOLDING TOGETHER WITH A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK AND AN IMPACT TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHILE THE
GFS WEAKENS THE CIRCULATION DUE TO DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR...LEAVING
THE REMNANTS/MOISTURE TO SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND GULF. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT TUESDAY DRY FOR THE MIDSOUTH AS
SUBSIDENCE OUT AHEAD OF ERIKA IS LIKELY. DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F WOULD
GENERATE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE 95F TO 100F RANGE. BETTER
CHANCES WILL START WEDNESDAY BASED OFF BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (26/12Z-27/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. N-NE WINDS TODAY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8
AND 12 KTS. WINDS TONIGHT NE 5 KTS OR LESS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 261045 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
545 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 306 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH NO EXPECTED ADJECTIVE
CHANGE FOR TOMORROW EITHER. CURRENTLY THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM 50F IN PARIS TENNESSEE TO 65F AT THE MEMPHIS AIRPORT.
WINDS WERE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH CLEAR SKIES
ABOUNDING. RECORD LOWS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

THE NEXT 48 HOURS...MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR WILL PREVAIL KEEPING
HUMIDITY LOW...SKIES CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY WARM THIS
PERIOD AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND WEAK WAA IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AT...OR A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE NORMAL. A FEW PASSING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS A PLAINS
SHORTWAVE EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW ALONG IT` TRACK FROM NEBRASKA
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE BRUNT
OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDWEST...BUT A STRAY SHOWER
OR STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. AS
THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
SOME RETURN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A STORM OR TWO ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. OTHERWISE THE WEEKEND APPEARS DRY FOR MOST.

TUESDAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD IS DEPENDENT ON TS ERIKA.
THE 26/00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE CYCLONE HOLDING TOGETHER WITH A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK AND AN IMPACT TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHILE THE
GFS WEAKENS THE CIRCULATION DUE TO DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR...LEAVING
THE REMNANTS/MOISTURE TO SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND GULF. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT TUESDAY DRY FOR THE MIDSOUTH AS
SUBSIDENCE OUT AHEAD OF ERIKA IS LIKELY. DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F WOULD
GENERATE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE 95F TO 100F RANGE. BETTER
CHANCES WILL START WEDNESDAY BASED OFF BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (26/12Z-27/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. N-NE WINDS TODAY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8
AND 12 KTS. WINDS TONIGHT NE 5 KTS OR LESS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 260825
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
325 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...WE`RE ENJOYING YET ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT,
WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES NOW DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S. AREA
OBS SHOW THAT SOME SPOTS ARE NEAR OR AT SATURATION. SO, WOULD NOT
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHALLOW EARLY MORNING FOG, ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS AND AROUND AREA RIVERS AND LAKES. ALTHOUGH
SHALLOW, SOME OF THAT FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.

TODAY WILL PRETTY MUCH BE A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 80S MOST OTHER AREAS.
OUR FRIENDLY EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE US SOME
NICE COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPS FOR ONE MORE NIGHT, WITH LOWS BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN MOST AREAS.

.SHORT TERM...A GRADUAL WARM-UP BEGINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AS
UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST AND DAMPENS OUT, AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. BY FRIDAY, SURFACE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF OUR FA, AND
BY AFTERNOON OUR RESPITE OF NICE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE REPLACED
BY A MORE SEASONABLY MUGGY SOUTHERLY FLOW. AT THAT POINT, WE CAN
KISS OUR LOW DEW POINTS GOODBYE, WITH DEW POINTS REBOUNDING INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S BY SATURDAY MORNING.

AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP FROM THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WE WILL
ALSO PICK UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.

BY SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHING THE UPPER 80S IN
AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY
DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENS FURTHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR SOME TSTMS OVER WESTERN AREAS
BY MONDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ATTACHED TO
THE EXTENT OF SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THIS FRONT, ALONG WITH THE
FACT THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE MOISTURE-STARVED, WILL KEEP THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOCKED OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS FOR NOW
ON MONDAY, AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE "HOT-N-MUGGIES" WILL STICK
WITH US THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS HOLDING IN
THE UPPER 80S IN AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      83  60  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    80  58  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     76  57  78  61 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       83  58  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   83  59  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        81  59  82  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KOHX 260825
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
325 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...WE`RE ENJOYING YET ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT,
WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES NOW DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S. AREA
OBS SHOW THAT SOME SPOTS ARE NEAR OR AT SATURATION. SO, WOULD NOT
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHALLOW EARLY MORNING FOG, ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS AND AROUND AREA RIVERS AND LAKES. ALTHOUGH
SHALLOW, SOME OF THAT FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.

TODAY WILL PRETTY MUCH BE A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 80S MOST OTHER AREAS.
OUR FRIENDLY EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE US SOME
NICE COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPS FOR ONE MORE NIGHT, WITH LOWS BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN MOST AREAS.

.SHORT TERM...A GRADUAL WARM-UP BEGINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AS
UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST AND DAMPENS OUT, AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. BY FRIDAY, SURFACE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF OUR FA, AND
BY AFTERNOON OUR RESPITE OF NICE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE REPLACED
BY A MORE SEASONABLY MUGGY SOUTHERLY FLOW. AT THAT POINT, WE CAN
KISS OUR LOW DEW POINTS GOODBYE, WITH DEW POINTS REBOUNDING INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S BY SATURDAY MORNING.

AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP FROM THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WE WILL
ALSO PICK UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.

BY SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHING THE UPPER 80S IN
AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY
DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENS FURTHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR SOME TSTMS OVER WESTERN AREAS
BY MONDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ATTACHED TO
THE EXTENT OF SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THIS FRONT, ALONG WITH THE
FACT THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE MOISTURE-STARVED, WILL KEEP THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOCKED OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS FOR NOW
ON MONDAY, AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE "HOT-N-MUGGIES" WILL STICK
WITH US THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS HOLDING IN
THE UPPER 80S IN AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      83  60  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    80  58  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     76  57  78  61 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       83  58  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   83  59  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        81  59  82  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19



000
FXUS64 KOHX 260825
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
325 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...WE`RE ENJOYING YET ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT,
WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES NOW DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S. AREA
OBS SHOW THAT SOME SPOTS ARE NEAR OR AT SATURATION. SO, WOULD NOT
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHALLOW EARLY MORNING FOG, ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS AND AROUND AREA RIVERS AND LAKES. ALTHOUGH
SHALLOW, SOME OF THAT FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.

TODAY WILL PRETTY MUCH BE A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 80S MOST OTHER AREAS.
OUR FRIENDLY EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE US SOME
NICE COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPS FOR ONE MORE NIGHT, WITH LOWS BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN MOST AREAS.

.SHORT TERM...A GRADUAL WARM-UP BEGINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AS
UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST AND DAMPENS OUT, AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. BY FRIDAY, SURFACE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF OUR FA, AND
BY AFTERNOON OUR RESPITE OF NICE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE REPLACED
BY A MORE SEASONABLY MUGGY SOUTHERLY FLOW. AT THAT POINT, WE CAN
KISS OUR LOW DEW POINTS GOODBYE, WITH DEW POINTS REBOUNDING INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S BY SATURDAY MORNING.

AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP FROM THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WE WILL
ALSO PICK UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.

BY SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHING THE UPPER 80S IN
AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY
DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENS FURTHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR SOME TSTMS OVER WESTERN AREAS
BY MONDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ATTACHED TO
THE EXTENT OF SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THIS FRONT, ALONG WITH THE
FACT THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE MOISTURE-STARVED, WILL KEEP THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOCKED OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS FOR NOW
ON MONDAY, AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE "HOT-N-MUGGIES" WILL STICK
WITH US THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS HOLDING IN
THE UPPER 80S IN AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      83  60  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    80  58  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     76  57  78  61 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       83  58  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   83  59  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        81  59  82  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19



000
FXUS64 KMEG 260806
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
306 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH NO EXPECTED ADJECTIVE
CHANGE FOR TOMORROW EITHER. CURRENTLY THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM 50F IN PARIS TENNESSEE TO 65F AT THE MEMPHIS AIRPORT.
WINDS WERE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH CLEAR SKIES
ABOUNDING. RECORD LOWS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

THE NEXT 48 HOURS...MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR WILL PREVAIL KEEPING
HUMIDITY LOW...SKIES CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY WARM THIS
PERIOD AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND WEAK WAA IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AT...OR A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE NORMAL. A FEW PASSING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS A PLAINS
SHORTWAVE EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW ALONG IT` TRACK FROM NEBRASKA
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE BRUNT
OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDWEST...BUT A STRAY SHOWER
OR STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. AS
THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
SOME RETURN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A STORM OR TWO ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. OTHERWISE THE WEEKEND APPEARS DRY FOR MOST.

TUESDAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD IS DEPENDENT ON TS ERIKA.
THE 26/00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE CYCLONE HOLDING TOGETHER WITH A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK AND AN IMPACT TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHILE THE
GFS WEAKENS THE CIRCULATION DUE TO DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR...LEAVING
THE REMNANTS/MOISTURE TO SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND GULF. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT TUESDAY DRY FOR THE MIDSOUTH AS
SUBSIDENCE OUT AHEAD OF ERIKA IS LIKELY. DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F WOULD
GENERATE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE 95F TO 100F RANGE. BETTER
CHANCES WILL START WEDNESDAY BASED OFF BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10-15 MPH DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...DECREASING AGAIN AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 260806
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
306 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH NO EXPECTED ADJECTIVE
CHANGE FOR TOMORROW EITHER. CURRENTLY THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM 50F IN PARIS TENNESSEE TO 65F AT THE MEMPHIS AIRPORT.
WINDS WERE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH CLEAR SKIES
ABOUNDING. RECORD LOWS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

THE NEXT 48 HOURS...MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR WILL PREVAIL KEEPING
HUMIDITY LOW...SKIES CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY WARM THIS
PERIOD AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND WEAK WAA IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AT...OR A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE NORMAL. A FEW PASSING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS A PLAINS
SHORTWAVE EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW ALONG IT` TRACK FROM NEBRASKA
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE BRUNT
OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDWEST...BUT A STRAY SHOWER
OR STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. AS
THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
SOME RETURN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A STORM OR TWO ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. OTHERWISE THE WEEKEND APPEARS DRY FOR MOST.

TUESDAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD IS DEPENDENT ON TS ERIKA.
THE 26/00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE CYCLONE HOLDING TOGETHER WITH A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK AND AN IMPACT TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHILE THE
GFS WEAKENS THE CIRCULATION DUE TO DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR...LEAVING
THE REMNANTS/MOISTURE TO SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND GULF. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT TUESDAY DRY FOR THE MIDSOUTH AS
SUBSIDENCE OUT AHEAD OF ERIKA IS LIKELY. DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F WOULD
GENERATE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE 95F TO 100F RANGE. BETTER
CHANCES WILL START WEDNESDAY BASED OFF BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10-15 MPH DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...DECREASING AGAIN AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




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