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000
FXUS64 KMEG 050205
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
905 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ARE SLOWLY
DECREASING IN COVERAGE. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE SOME EVENING WORDING WITH NO BIG
CHANGES NEEDED.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...COMPLEX FORECAST THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH REGARDS TO
RAIN CHANCES. CURRENT UPPER LOW CENTER IS DROPPING IN FROM
NORTHERN ARKANSAS...WHILE MVC OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI IS MOVING
EAST NORTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
FORMED OUT AHEAD OF BOTH FEATURES WITH REPORTS AND PICTURES OF
COLD AIR FUNNELS OVER THE NORTHERN DELTA COUNTIES. RAINFALL SO FAR
TODAY HAS STAYED UNDER FFG BUT CLEARING OVER NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
IS WORRISOME THAT HEAVIER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO...MOVING EAST THEN OVER SATURATED GROUND. FOR NOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH OF THIS UNFOLDING...BUT PLAN IS TO HOLD ON
TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. TONIGHT THE
BEST FOCUS FOR TRAINING STORMS WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA.

CURRENT CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW CENTER SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING...WITH THE LOW CENTER SHIFTING EAST OF THE MEMPHIS AREA
BY MIDNIGHT. SO EVENING 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES SHOULD
IMPROVE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
OVERNIGHT PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
WEST...WHILE MORE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE EAST.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE
MIDSOUTH BEHIND THE LOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
MORE ISOLATED. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH
UPPER LEVEL 80S/LOW 90S. WINDS WILL START OFF LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH BUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BUMP UP THE GRADIENT OVER THE DELTA REGION.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHERN
MIDSOUTH AND STALL...BEING THE FOCUS FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LONG RANGE GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS SHOW
THE FRONT LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH SLIDES WESTWARD. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SHIFT THE
STORM TRACK BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE WEATHER REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY AND CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (05/00Z-06/00Z)

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATING OR MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA BY MID EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING. AFTER 05/06Z WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS 05/09Z-05/13Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
PREDOMINATELY VFR BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...MENTIONED VCTS
AT KMEM...KMKL AND KTUP. WINDS TONIGHT LIGHT. WINDS SUNDAY
BECOMING S-SW 6-8 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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000
FXUS64 KOHX 050137
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
837 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE TONIGHT WILL LIKELY KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING, WITH THE HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
ONTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. HEAVY THUNDERSTORM RAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING, AND
EVERYONE SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER ALERT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND
LISTEN FOR ANY FLASH FLOOD/FLOOD STATEMENTS, ADVISORIES OR
WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE ISSUED. FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS,  IT WILL BE
ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT THAT MOTORISTS AVOID CROSSING AREAS WHERE
WATER COVERS THE ROAD. NIGHTTIME FLOODING IS ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS
SINCE IT IS DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY GAUGE THE DEPTH OF FLOOD
WATERS. WILL PROBABLY MAKE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO POP AND WX
GRIDS. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  84  69  87 /  50  40  20  30
CLARKSVILLE    67  84  68  87 /  30  30  10  20
CROSSVILLE     66  76  64  81 /  80  70  30  40
COLUMBIA       68  83  68  88 /  70  40  20  30
LAWRENCEBURG   67  82  68  86 /  80  50  20  40
WAVERLY        68  84  69  87 /  40  30  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ010-011-031>034-
063>066-077>080.

&&

$$

19



000
FXUS64 KOHX 050137
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
837 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE TONIGHT WILL LIKELY KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING, WITH THE HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
ONTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. HEAVY THUNDERSTORM RAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING, AND
EVERYONE SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER ALERT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND
LISTEN FOR ANY FLASH FLOOD/FLOOD STATEMENTS, ADVISORIES OR
WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE ISSUED. FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS,  IT WILL BE
ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT THAT MOTORISTS AVOID CROSSING AREAS WHERE
WATER COVERS THE ROAD. NIGHTTIME FLOODING IS ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS
SINCE IT IS DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY GAUGE THE DEPTH OF FLOOD
WATERS. WILL PROBABLY MAKE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO POP AND WX
GRIDS. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  84  69  87 /  50  40  20  30
CLARKSVILLE    67  84  68  87 /  30  30  10  20
CROSSVILLE     66  76  64  81 /  80  70  30  40
COLUMBIA       68  83  68  88 /  70  40  20  30
LAWRENCEBURG   67  82  68  86 /  80  50  20  40
WAVERLY        68  84  69  87 /  40  30  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ010-011-031>034-
063>066-077>080.

&&

$$

19



000
FXUS64 KOHX 050137
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
837 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE TONIGHT WILL LIKELY KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING, WITH THE HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
ONTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. HEAVY THUNDERSTORM RAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING, AND
EVERYONE SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER ALERT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND
LISTEN FOR ANY FLASH FLOOD/FLOOD STATEMENTS, ADVISORIES OR
WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE ISSUED. FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS,  IT WILL BE
ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT THAT MOTORISTS AVOID CROSSING AREAS WHERE
WATER COVERS THE ROAD. NIGHTTIME FLOODING IS ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS
SINCE IT IS DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY GAUGE THE DEPTH OF FLOOD
WATERS. WILL PROBABLY MAKE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO POP AND WX
GRIDS. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  84  69  87 /  50  40  20  30
CLARKSVILLE    67  84  68  87 /  30  30  10  20
CROSSVILLE     66  76  64  81 /  80  70  30  40
COLUMBIA       68  83  68  88 /  70  40  20  30
LAWRENCEBURG   67  82  68  86 /  80  50  20  40
WAVERLY        68  84  69  87 /  40  30  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ010-011-031>034-
063>066-077>080.

&&

$$

19



000
FXUS64 KOHX 050137
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
837 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE TONIGHT WILL LIKELY KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING, WITH THE HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
ONTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. HEAVY THUNDERSTORM RAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING, AND
EVERYONE SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER ALERT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND
LISTEN FOR ANY FLASH FLOOD/FLOOD STATEMENTS, ADVISORIES OR
WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE ISSUED. FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS,  IT WILL BE
ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT THAT MOTORISTS AVOID CROSSING AREAS WHERE
WATER COVERS THE ROAD. NIGHTTIME FLOODING IS ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS
SINCE IT IS DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY GAUGE THE DEPTH OF FLOOD
WATERS. WILL PROBABLY MAKE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO POP AND WX
GRIDS. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  84  69  87 /  50  40  20  30
CLARKSVILLE    67  84  68  87 /  30  30  10  20
CROSSVILLE     66  76  64  81 /  80  70  30  40
COLUMBIA       68  83  68  88 /  70  40  20  30
LAWRENCEBURG   67  82  68  86 /  80  50  20  40
WAVERLY        68  84  69  87 /  40  30  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ010-011-031>034-
063>066-077>080.

&&

$$

19



000
FXUS64 KOHX 050137
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
837 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE TONIGHT WILL LIKELY KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING, WITH THE HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
ONTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. HEAVY THUNDERSTORM RAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING, AND
EVERYONE SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER ALERT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND
LISTEN FOR ANY FLASH FLOOD/FLOOD STATEMENTS, ADVISORIES OR
WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE ISSUED. FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS,  IT WILL BE
ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT THAT MOTORISTS AVOID CROSSING AREAS WHERE
WATER COVERS THE ROAD. NIGHTTIME FLOODING IS ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS
SINCE IT IS DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY GAUGE THE DEPTH OF FLOOD
WATERS. WILL PROBABLY MAKE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO POP AND WX
GRIDS. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  84  69  87 /  50  40  20  30
CLARKSVILLE    67  84  68  87 /  30  30  10  20
CROSSVILLE     66  76  64  81 /  80  70  30  40
COLUMBIA       68  83  68  88 /  70  40  20  30
LAWRENCEBURG   67  82  68  86 /  80  50  20  40
WAVERLY        68  84  69  87 /  40  30  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ010-011-031>034-
063>066-077>080.

&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KOHX 050137
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
837 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE TONIGHT WILL LIKELY KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING, WITH THE HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
ONTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. HEAVY THUNDERSTORM RAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING, AND
EVERYONE SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER ALERT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND
LISTEN FOR ANY FLASH FLOOD/FLOOD STATEMENTS, ADVISORIES OR
WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE ISSUED. FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS,  IT WILL BE
ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT THAT MOTORISTS AVOID CROSSING AREAS WHERE
WATER COVERS THE ROAD. NIGHTTIME FLOODING IS ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS
SINCE IT IS DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY GAUGE THE DEPTH OF FLOOD
WATERS. WILL PROBABLY MAKE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO POP AND WX
GRIDS. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  84  69  87 /  50  40  20  30
CLARKSVILLE    67  84  68  87 /  30  30  10  20
CROSSVILLE     66  76  64  81 /  80  70  30  40
COLUMBIA       68  83  68  88 /  70  40  20  30
LAWRENCEBURG   67  82  68  86 /  80  50  20  40
WAVERLY        68  84  69  87 /  40  30  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ010-011-031>034-
063>066-077>080.

&&

$$

19


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000
FXUS64 KMRX 042357
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
757 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER MEMPHIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE CONFINED MAINLY
NORTH OF I-40. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. EVENTUALLY SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM
ALABAMA INTO THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY CLOSE TO 10-11 PM EDT. SHOWERS
SHOULD MOVE INTO KNOXVILLE AROUND MIDNIGHT AND TRI CITIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

TWEAKED SHORT-TERM FORECAST TO TRIM BACK POPS AREA WIDE UNTIL AFTER
03Z. THIS ALSO AFFECTED THE QPF FORECAST THROUGH 2AM...EXPECTING
LESS..WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SW VA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  81  68  86 /  80  80  30  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  79  67  85 /  80  80  50  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  78  66  85 /  80  80  40  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              67  79  65  81 /  80  80  70  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

AC




000
FXUS64 KMEG 042352 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
652 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 251 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...COMPLEX FORECAST THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH REGARDS TO
RAIN CHANCES. CURRENT UPPER LOW CENTER IS DROPPING IN FROM
NORTHERN ARKANSAS...WHILE MVC OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI IS MOVING
EAST NORTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
FORMED OUT AHEAD OF BOTH FEATURES WITH REPORTS AND PICTURES OF
COLD AIR FUNNELS OVER THE NORTHERN DELTA COUNTIES. RAINFALL SO FAR
TODAY HAS STAYED UNDER FFG BUT CLEARING OVER NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
IS WORRISOME THAT HEAVIER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO...MOVING EAST THEN OVER SATURATED GROUND. FOR NOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH OF THIS UNFOLDING...BUT PLAN IS TO HOLD ON
TO THE FLASHFLOOD WATCH THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. TONIGHT THE BEST
FOCUS FOR TRAINING STORMS WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA.

CURRENT CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW CENTER SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING...WITH THE LOW CENTER SHIFTING EAST OF THE MEMPHIS AREA
BY MIDNIGHT. SO EVENING 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES SHOULD
IMPROVE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
OVERNIGHT PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
WEST...WHILE MORE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE EAST.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE
MIDSOUTH BEHIND THE LOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
MORE ISOLATED. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH
UPPER LEVEL 80S/LOW 90S. WINDS WILL START OFF LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH BUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BUMP UP THE GRADIENT OVER THE DELTA REGION.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHERN
MIDSOUTH AND STALL...BEING THE FOCUS FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LONG RANGE GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS SHOW
THE FRONT LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH SLIDES WESTWARD. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SHIFT THE
STORM TRACK BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE WEATHER REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY AND CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (05/00Z-06/00Z)

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATING OR MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA BY MID EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING. AFTER 05/06Z WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS 05/09Z-05/13Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
PREDOMINATELY VFR BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...MENTIONED VCTS
AT KMEM...KMKL AND KTUP. WINDS TONIGHT LIGHT. WINDS SUNDAY
BECOMING S-SW 6-8 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE
     AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE
     MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FAYETTE-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 042352 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
652 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 251 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...COMPLEX FORECAST THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH REGARDS TO
RAIN CHANCES. CURRENT UPPER LOW CENTER IS DROPPING IN FROM
NORTHERN ARKANSAS...WHILE MVC OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI IS MOVING
EAST NORTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
FORMED OUT AHEAD OF BOTH FEATURES WITH REPORTS AND PICTURES OF
COLD AIR FUNNELS OVER THE NORTHERN DELTA COUNTIES. RAINFALL SO FAR
TODAY HAS STAYED UNDER FFG BUT CLEARING OVER NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
IS WORRISOME THAT HEAVIER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO...MOVING EAST THEN OVER SATURATED GROUND. FOR NOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH OF THIS UNFOLDING...BUT PLAN IS TO HOLD ON
TO THE FLASHFLOOD WATCH THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. TONIGHT THE BEST
FOCUS FOR TRAINING STORMS WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA.

CURRENT CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW CENTER SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING...WITH THE LOW CENTER SHIFTING EAST OF THE MEMPHIS AREA
BY MIDNIGHT. SO EVENING 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES SHOULD
IMPROVE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
OVERNIGHT PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
WEST...WHILE MORE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE EAST.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE
MIDSOUTH BEHIND THE LOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
MORE ISOLATED. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH
UPPER LEVEL 80S/LOW 90S. WINDS WILL START OFF LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH BUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BUMP UP THE GRADIENT OVER THE DELTA REGION.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHERN
MIDSOUTH AND STALL...BEING THE FOCUS FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LONG RANGE GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS SHOW
THE FRONT LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH SLIDES WESTWARD. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SHIFT THE
STORM TRACK BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE WEATHER REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY AND CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (05/00Z-06/00Z)

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATING OR MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA BY MID EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING. AFTER 05/06Z WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS 05/09Z-05/13Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
PREDOMINATELY VFR BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...MENTIONED VCTS
AT KMEM...KMKL AND KTUP. WINDS TONIGHT LIGHT. WINDS SUNDAY
BECOMING S-SW 6-8 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE
     AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE
     MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FAYETTE-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 042327
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
727 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS
VIGOROUS UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...SHOWERS OVER ALABAMA WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT SOUTHERN AREAS FIRST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARDS TO
CEILINGS AND VSBY OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY AT KCHA AND KTRI. LOOK FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

AC



000
FXUS64 KMRX 042327
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
727 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS
VIGOROUS UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...SHOWERS OVER ALABAMA WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT SOUTHERN AREAS FIRST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARDS TO
CEILINGS AND VSBY OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY AT KCHA AND KTRI. LOOK FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

AC




000
FXUS64 KMRX 042327
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
727 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS
VIGOROUS UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...SHOWERS OVER ALABAMA WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT SOUTHERN AREAS FIRST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARDS TO
CEILINGS AND VSBY OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY AT KCHA AND KTRI. LOOK FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

AC



000
FXUS64 KMRX 042327
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
727 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS
VIGOROUS UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...SHOWERS OVER ALABAMA WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT SOUTHERN AREAS FIRST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARDS TO
CEILINGS AND VSBY OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY AT KCHA AND KTRI. LOOK FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

AC




000
FXUS64 KOHX 042311
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
611 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...MAINLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AT THIS TIME,
THE STRONGEST CELLS ARE ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST JUST SOUTH OF THE
NASHVILLE AREA AND EXHIBITING LITTLE MOVEMENT. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT LOW CIGS TO MOVE IN BY 06Z AND LAST WELL INTO THE
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MODELS HAVE NOT WANDERED MUCH FROM INDICATING THIS WET PATTERN
WILL STICK AROUND FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. THE FORECAST
LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS IT DID YESTERDAY...EVEN IN REGARDS TO THE
HOLIDAY FESTIVITIES FORECAST THIS EVENING. UPPER SHORTWAVE AXIS
LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE MS RIVER CURRENTLY ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW
AROUND NORTHERN MS...AND PROGRESSING EASTERLY TOWARDS THE AREA.
MOST OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS IT TRAVELS TO THE EAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
VOID IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF
I40...BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH AROUND 40
TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE NASHVILLE AREA TONIGHT. SHORT TERM
MODELS LOOK TO FIRE BETTER ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH NEAR
THE KY/TN BORDER THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY NOT IMPEDE ON
THE FESTIVITIES. FOR NOW...ISOLATED POP UP STORMS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING UP ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOOK TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
EAST. WITH SOME LUCK...THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR
THE CLEAR SLOT TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE
BACKSIDE PRECIP CHANCES MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP FROM NOW THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SLIDES EAST. DECIDED TO EXTEND THE FLOOD
WATCH FOR MAINLY THE PLATEAU THROUGH 12Z BECAUSE OF THIS. SHORT
TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM ARE PLACING 0.5 TO 1 INCHES OF QPF
OVER THAT REGION OVERNIGHT...SO WILL EXTEND THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY GET A BREAK FROM
HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES AS SOME NVA MOVES IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW. THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS YET ANOTHER LOW TRACKS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BREAKS DOWN THE DEVELOPING RIDGE.
THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS WE GET
TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL DIFFER
JUST A BIT. THEY DO BOTH HAVE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...BUT STILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION FOR PRECIP CHANCES AT DIFFERENT TIMES. HOPEFULLY THEY LINE
UP A BIT BETTER FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND PROVIDE A BIT DRIER PATTERN
FOR THE AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE SCHC POPS IN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND WE
MAY LUCK OUT WITH MODEL RUNS CONTINUING TO DRY OUT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  84  69  87 /  50  40  20  30
CLARKSVILLE    67  84  68  87 /  30  30  10  20
CROSSVILLE     66  76  64  81 /  80  70  30  40
COLUMBIA       68  83  68  88 /  70  40  20  30
LAWRENCEBURG   67  82  68  86 /  80  50  20  40
WAVERLY        68  84  69  87 /  40  30  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TNZ010-011-031>034-
063>066-077>080.

&&

$$

08



000
FXUS64 KOHX 042311
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
611 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...MAINLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AT THIS TIME,
THE STRONGEST CELLS ARE ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST JUST SOUTH OF THE
NASHVILLE AREA AND EXHIBITING LITTLE MOVEMENT. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT LOW CIGS TO MOVE IN BY 06Z AND LAST WELL INTO THE
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MODELS HAVE NOT WANDERED MUCH FROM INDICATING THIS WET PATTERN
WILL STICK AROUND FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. THE FORECAST
LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS IT DID YESTERDAY...EVEN IN REGARDS TO THE
HOLIDAY FESTIVITIES FORECAST THIS EVENING. UPPER SHORTWAVE AXIS
LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE MS RIVER CURRENTLY ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW
AROUND NORTHERN MS...AND PROGRESSING EASTERLY TOWARDS THE AREA.
MOST OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS IT TRAVELS TO THE EAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
VOID IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF
I40...BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH AROUND 40
TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE NASHVILLE AREA TONIGHT. SHORT TERM
MODELS LOOK TO FIRE BETTER ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH NEAR
THE KY/TN BORDER THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY NOT IMPEDE ON
THE FESTIVITIES. FOR NOW...ISOLATED POP UP STORMS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING UP ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOOK TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
EAST. WITH SOME LUCK...THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR
THE CLEAR SLOT TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE
BACKSIDE PRECIP CHANCES MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP FROM NOW THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SLIDES EAST. DECIDED TO EXTEND THE FLOOD
WATCH FOR MAINLY THE PLATEAU THROUGH 12Z BECAUSE OF THIS. SHORT
TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM ARE PLACING 0.5 TO 1 INCHES OF QPF
OVER THAT REGION OVERNIGHT...SO WILL EXTEND THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY GET A BREAK FROM
HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES AS SOME NVA MOVES IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW. THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS YET ANOTHER LOW TRACKS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BREAKS DOWN THE DEVELOPING RIDGE.
THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS WE GET
TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL DIFFER
JUST A BIT. THEY DO BOTH HAVE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...BUT STILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION FOR PRECIP CHANCES AT DIFFERENT TIMES. HOPEFULLY THEY LINE
UP A BIT BETTER FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND PROVIDE A BIT DRIER PATTERN
FOR THE AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE SCHC POPS IN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND WE
MAY LUCK OUT WITH MODEL RUNS CONTINUING TO DRY OUT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  84  69  87 /  50  40  20  30
CLARKSVILLE    67  84  68  87 /  30  30  10  20
CROSSVILLE     66  76  64  81 /  80  70  30  40
COLUMBIA       68  83  68  88 /  70  40  20  30
LAWRENCEBURG   67  82  68  86 /  80  50  20  40
WAVERLY        68  84  69  87 /  40  30  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TNZ010-011-031>034-
063>066-077>080.

&&

$$

08




000
FXUS64 KOHX 042311
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
611 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...MAINLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AT THIS TIME,
THE STRONGEST CELLS ARE ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST JUST SOUTH OF THE
NASHVILLE AREA AND EXHIBITING LITTLE MOVEMENT. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT LOW CIGS TO MOVE IN BY 06Z AND LAST WELL INTO THE
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MODELS HAVE NOT WANDERED MUCH FROM INDICATING THIS WET PATTERN
WILL STICK AROUND FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. THE FORECAST
LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS IT DID YESTERDAY...EVEN IN REGARDS TO THE
HOLIDAY FESTIVITIES FORECAST THIS EVENING. UPPER SHORTWAVE AXIS
LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE MS RIVER CURRENTLY ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW
AROUND NORTHERN MS...AND PROGRESSING EASTERLY TOWARDS THE AREA.
MOST OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS IT TRAVELS TO THE EAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
VOID IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF
I40...BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH AROUND 40
TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE NASHVILLE AREA TONIGHT. SHORT TERM
MODELS LOOK TO FIRE BETTER ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH NEAR
THE KY/TN BORDER THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY NOT IMPEDE ON
THE FESTIVITIES. FOR NOW...ISOLATED POP UP STORMS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING UP ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOOK TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
EAST. WITH SOME LUCK...THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR
THE CLEAR SLOT TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE
BACKSIDE PRECIP CHANCES MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP FROM NOW THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SLIDES EAST. DECIDED TO EXTEND THE FLOOD
WATCH FOR MAINLY THE PLATEAU THROUGH 12Z BECAUSE OF THIS. SHORT
TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM ARE PLACING 0.5 TO 1 INCHES OF QPF
OVER THAT REGION OVERNIGHT...SO WILL EXTEND THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY GET A BREAK FROM
HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES AS SOME NVA MOVES IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW. THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS YET ANOTHER LOW TRACKS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BREAKS DOWN THE DEVELOPING RIDGE.
THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS WE GET
TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL DIFFER
JUST A BIT. THEY DO BOTH HAVE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...BUT STILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION FOR PRECIP CHANCES AT DIFFERENT TIMES. HOPEFULLY THEY LINE
UP A BIT BETTER FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND PROVIDE A BIT DRIER PATTERN
FOR THE AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE SCHC POPS IN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND WE
MAY LUCK OUT WITH MODEL RUNS CONTINUING TO DRY OUT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  84  69  87 /  50  40  20  30
CLARKSVILLE    67  84  68  87 /  30  30  10  20
CROSSVILLE     66  76  64  81 /  80  70  30  40
COLUMBIA       68  83  68  88 /  70  40  20  30
LAWRENCEBURG   67  82  68  86 /  80  50  20  40
WAVERLY        68  84  69  87 /  40  30  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TNZ010-011-031>034-
063>066-077>080.

&&

$$

08



000
FXUS64 KOHX 042311
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
611 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...MAINLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AT THIS TIME,
THE STRONGEST CELLS ARE ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST JUST SOUTH OF THE
NASHVILLE AREA AND EXHIBITING LITTLE MOVEMENT. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT LOW CIGS TO MOVE IN BY 06Z AND LAST WELL INTO THE
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MODELS HAVE NOT WANDERED MUCH FROM INDICATING THIS WET PATTERN
WILL STICK AROUND FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. THE FORECAST
LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS IT DID YESTERDAY...EVEN IN REGARDS TO THE
HOLIDAY FESTIVITIES FORECAST THIS EVENING. UPPER SHORTWAVE AXIS
LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE MS RIVER CURRENTLY ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW
AROUND NORTHERN MS...AND PROGRESSING EASTERLY TOWARDS THE AREA.
MOST OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS IT TRAVELS TO THE EAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
VOID IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF
I40...BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH AROUND 40
TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE NASHVILLE AREA TONIGHT. SHORT TERM
MODELS LOOK TO FIRE BETTER ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH NEAR
THE KY/TN BORDER THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY NOT IMPEDE ON
THE FESTIVITIES. FOR NOW...ISOLATED POP UP STORMS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING UP ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOOK TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
EAST. WITH SOME LUCK...THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR
THE CLEAR SLOT TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE
BACKSIDE PRECIP CHANCES MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP FROM NOW THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SLIDES EAST. DECIDED TO EXTEND THE FLOOD
WATCH FOR MAINLY THE PLATEAU THROUGH 12Z BECAUSE OF THIS. SHORT
TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM ARE PLACING 0.5 TO 1 INCHES OF QPF
OVER THAT REGION OVERNIGHT...SO WILL EXTEND THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY GET A BREAK FROM
HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES AS SOME NVA MOVES IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW. THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS YET ANOTHER LOW TRACKS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BREAKS DOWN THE DEVELOPING RIDGE.
THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS WE GET
TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL DIFFER
JUST A BIT. THEY DO BOTH HAVE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...BUT STILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION FOR PRECIP CHANCES AT DIFFERENT TIMES. HOPEFULLY THEY LINE
UP A BIT BETTER FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND PROVIDE A BIT DRIER PATTERN
FOR THE AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE SCHC POPS IN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND WE
MAY LUCK OUT WITH MODEL RUNS CONTINUING TO DRY OUT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  84  69  87 /  50  40  20  30
CLARKSVILLE    67  84  68  87 /  30  30  10  20
CROSSVILLE     66  76  64  81 /  80  70  30  40
COLUMBIA       68  83  68  88 /  70  40  20  30
LAWRENCEBURG   67  82  68  86 /  80  50  20  40
WAVERLY        68  84  69  87 /  40  30  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TNZ010-011-031>034-
063>066-077>080.

&&

$$

08




000
FXUS64 KOHX 042019
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
319 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS HAVE NOT WANDERED MUCH FROM INDICATING THIS WET PATTERN
WILL STICK AROUND FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. THE FORECAST
LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS IT DID YESTERDAY...EVEN IN REGARDS TO THE
HOLIDAY FESTIVITIES FORECAST THIS EVENING. UPPER SHORTWAVE AXIS
LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE MS RIVER CURRENTLY ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW
AROUND NORTHERN MS...AND PROGRESSING EASTERLY TOWARDS THE AREA.
MOST OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS IT TRAVELS TO THE EAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
VOID IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF
I40...BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH AROUND 40
TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE NASHVILLE AREA TONIGHT. SHORT TERM
MODELS LOOK TO FIRE BETTER ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH NEAR
THE KY/TN BORDER THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY NOT IMPEDE ON
THE FESTIVITIES. FOR NOW...ISOLATED POP UP STORMS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING UP ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOOK TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
EAST. WITH SOME LUCK...THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR
THE CLEAR SLOT TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE
BACKSIDE PRECIP CHANCES MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP FROM NOW THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SLIDES EAST. DECIDED TO EXTEND THE FLOOD
WATCH FOR MAINLY THE PLATEAU THROUGH 12Z BECAUSE OF THIS. SHORT
TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM ARE PLACING 0.5 TO 1 INCHES OF QPF
OVER THAT REGION OVERNIGHT...SO WILL EXTEND THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY GET A BREAK FROM
HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES AS SOME NVA MOVES IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW. THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS YET ANOTHER LOW TRACKS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BREAKS DOWN THE DEVELOPING RIDGE.
THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS WE GET
TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL DIFFER
JUST A BIT. THEY DO BOTH HAVE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...BUT STILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION FOR PRECIP CHANCES AT DIFFERENT TIMES. HOPEFULLY THEY LINE
UP A BIT BETTER FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND PROVIDE A BIT DRIER PATTERN
FOR THE AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE SCHC POPS IN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND WE
MAY LUCK OUT WITH MODEL RUNS CONTINUING TO DRY OUT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  84  69  87 /  50  40  20  30
CLARKSVILLE    67  84  68  87 /  30  30  10  20
CROSSVILLE     66  76  64  81 /  80  70  30  40
COLUMBIA       68  83  68  88 /  70  40  20  30
LAWRENCEBURG   67  82  68  86 /  80  50  20  40
WAVERLY        68  84  69  87 /  40  30  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

BARNWELL



000
FXUS64 KMEG 041951
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
251 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...COMPLEX FORECAST THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH REGARDS TO
RAIN CHANCES. CURRENT UPPER LOW CENTER IS DROPPING IN FROM
NORTHERN ARKANSAS...WHILE MVC OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI IS MOVING
EAST NORTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
FORMED OUT AHEAD OF BOTH FEATURES WITH REPORTS AND PICTURES OF
COLD AIR FUNNELS OVER THE NORTHERN DELTA COUNTIES. RAINFALL SO FAR
TODAY HAS STAYED UNDER FFG BUT CLEARING OVER NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI IS WORRISOME THAT HEAVIER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO...MOVING EAST THEN OVER SATURATED GROUND. FOR NOW
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH OF THIS UNFOLDING...BUT PLAN IS TO
HOLD ON TO THE FLASHFLOOD WATCH THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. TONIGHT
THE BEST FOCUS FOR TRAINING STORMS WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA.

CURRENT CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW CENTER SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING...WITH THE LOW CENTER SHIFTING EAST OF THE MEMPHIS AREA
BY MIDNIGHT. SO EVENING 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES SHOULD
IMPROVE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
OVERNIGHT PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
WEST...WHILE MORE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE EAST.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE
MIDSOUTH BEHIND THE LOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
MORE ISOLATED. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH
UPPER LEVEL 80S/LOW 90S. WINDS WILL START OFF LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH BUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BUMP UP THE GRADIENT OVER THE DELTA REGION.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHERN
MIDSOUTH AND STALL...BEING THE FOCUS FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LONG RANGE GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS SHOW
THE FRONT LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH SLIDES WESTWARD. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SHIFT THE
STORM TRACK BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE WEATHER REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY AND CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH AN MCV OVER
NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL KEEP PREVAILING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KTUP. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
SCATTERED NEAR KJBR WITH VICINITY THUNDER IN THE TAF. PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS
SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST BELOW 7 KTS AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KTUP TO THE
SOUTH OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT WEAK EASTERLY AT KJBR TO
THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
BE POSITIONED IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS AND MVFR CIGS TO THE WEST OF THE LOW
WHICH WILL IMPACT OUR TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH CONVECTION COVERAGE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION
IN THE TAFS ON SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE
     AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE
     MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FAYETTE-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 041846
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
246 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...PERSISTENT PATTERN
CONTINUES...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA. UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR WEST FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND DRIFT OVER OUR AREA
DURING THE PERIOD.  SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND...BUT CLOUDS
AND PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO RESTRICT HEATING/INSTABILITY WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT THUNDER.  WILL CARRY CAT POPS BOTH PERIODS. GIVEN HOW
WET THE GROUND IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WILL ALLOW THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE AS IS.  MAV TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK
REASONABLE...SO JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM.

SUNDAY NIGHT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE MID STATE
SPINS OVERHEAD. BOTH MODELS SHOW THIS LOW WEAKENING AND PULLING OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. IT DOES LOOK
LIKE WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME CLEARING ON MONDAY AS THIS LOW PULLS
AWAY. CLEARING WILL BEGIN MONDAY MORNING FIRST ACROSS OUR WESTERN
AREAS WHILE NETN AND SWVA MAY NOT SEE CLEARING UNTIL LATER
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE SAME APPLIES TO PRECIP CHANCES. OUR NE
AREAS WILL HOLD ON TO PRECIP THE LONGEST...LIKELY THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY. THE NAM WANTS TO DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY ACROSS AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT EARLY.
THIS IS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY BECAUSE OF THE RETURNING
SUNSHINE AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT HANGING AROUND FROM THE LOW.
NONETHELESS...MONDAY WILL BE OUR FIRST DAY IN QUITE SOME TIME FOR
MOST AREAS TO SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNSHINE.

MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK RIDGING ON TUESDAY THAT WILL GIVE US OUR
BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...DIURNAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE. THE SHORT LIVED DRY STREAK ENDS
ABRUPTLY ON WEDNESDAY AS WE REENTER AN UNSETTLE WEATHER PATTERN.
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPS DOWN TOWARD OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND HANGS AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY STALL TO OUR
NORTH BUT WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. BY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY THINGS ARE LOOKING DRIER AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE SOUTH AND THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITS TO THE EAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  81  68  86 /  80  80  30  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  79  67  85 /  80  80  50  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  78  66  85 /  80  80  40  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              67  79  65  81 /  80  80  70  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

LW/SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 041846
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
246 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...PERSISTENT PATTERN
CONTINUES...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA. UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR WEST FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND DRIFT OVER OUR AREA
DURING THE PERIOD.  SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND...BUT CLOUDS
AND PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO RESTRICT HEATING/INSTABILITY WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT THUNDER.  WILL CARRY CAT POPS BOTH PERIODS. GIVEN HOW
WET THE GROUND IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WILL ALLOW THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE AS IS.  MAV TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK
REASONABLE...SO JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM.

SUNDAY NIGHT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE MID STATE
SPINS OVERHEAD. BOTH MODELS SHOW THIS LOW WEAKENING AND PULLING OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. IT DOES LOOK
LIKE WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME CLEARING ON MONDAY AS THIS LOW PULLS
AWAY. CLEARING WILL BEGIN MONDAY MORNING FIRST ACROSS OUR WESTERN
AREAS WHILE NETN AND SWVA MAY NOT SEE CLEARING UNTIL LATER
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE SAME APPLIES TO PRECIP CHANCES. OUR NE
AREAS WILL HOLD ON TO PRECIP THE LONGEST...LIKELY THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY. THE NAM WANTS TO DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY ACROSS AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT EARLY.
THIS IS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY BECAUSE OF THE RETURNING
SUNSHINE AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT HANGING AROUND FROM THE LOW.
NONETHELESS...MONDAY WILL BE OUR FIRST DAY IN QUITE SOME TIME FOR
MOST AREAS TO SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNSHINE.

MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK RIDGING ON TUESDAY THAT WILL GIVE US OUR
BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...DIURNAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE. THE SHORT LIVED DRY STREAK ENDS
ABRUPTLY ON WEDNESDAY AS WE REENTER AN UNSETTLE WEATHER PATTERN.
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPS DOWN TOWARD OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND HANGS AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY STALL TO OUR
NORTH BUT WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. BY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY THINGS ARE LOOKING DRIER AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE SOUTH AND THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITS TO THE EAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  81  68  86 /  80  80  30  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  79  67  85 /  80  80  50  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  78  66  85 /  80  80  40  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              67  79  65  81 /  80  80  70  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

LW/SR



000
FXUS64 KMEG 041839
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
139 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR INCREASING POPS ALONG THE TN/MS BORDER AND FOR
TRENDING MORNING TEMPERATURES DOWN.

DISCUSSION...

RADAR SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS EXTREME NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...AND SPOTTY SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE. HAVE EXTENDED THE LIKELY AND
DEFINITE POPS NORTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. TRAINING OF
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY AND THOUGH CURRENT RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT AS
HIGH AS WAS SEEN YESTERDAY...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH FOR FLASH
FLOODING TO RESTART.

ALSO ADJUSTED MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...AS THICK CLOUD COVER IS NOT
EXPECTED TO SEE ANY BREAKS UNTIL AFTER 1PM.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR NORTH MISSISSIPPI TODAY...

SIMILAR TO EARLY FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WERE TRAINING OVER NORTH
MS AT DISCUSSION TIME...ROUGHLY ALONG AN EAST/WEST LINE FROM
CLARKSDALE TO TUPELO. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING...GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH WHILE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORMS TO THE NORTH...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW
DROPPING INTO NORTHEAST AR BY MIDDAY.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL LIE OVER NORTH
MS...WHERE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO TRAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER LOW. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS TRIMMED BACK TO REFLECT THE
MOST LIKELY AREAL THREAT...WITH A BUFFER ZONE OVER SOUTHWEST
TN. WHILE STORM CHANCES ARE LOWER OVER SW TN...ANY ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE MEMPHIS METRO COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...
WHERE SOILS ARE SATURATED.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS MEMPHIS AROUND 6 PM
CDT...AND ACROSS NORTH MS THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT WILL
SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW INTO AL. DEPENDING ON THE
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
NEED BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE PKWY.

SUNDAY WILL SEE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH DIURNALLY
ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS. AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL PRESENT SLIGHT
CHANCES OF MAINLY DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH AN MCV OVER
NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL KEEP PREVAILING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KTUP. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
SCATTERED NEAR KJBR WITH VICINITY THUNDER IN THE TAF. PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS
SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST BELOW 7 KTS AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KTUP TO THE
SOUTH OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT WEAK EASTERLY AT KJBR TO
THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
BE POSITIONED IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS AND MVFR CIGS TO THE WEST OF THE LOW
WHICH WILL IMPACT OUR TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH CONVECTION COVERAGE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION
IN THE TAFS ON SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE
     AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE
     MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FAYETTE-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 041839
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
139 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR INCREASING POPS ALONG THE TN/MS BORDER AND FOR
TRENDING MORNING TEMPERATURES DOWN.

DISCUSSION...

RADAR SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS EXTREME NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...AND SPOTTY SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE. HAVE EXTENDED THE LIKELY AND
DEFINITE POPS NORTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. TRAINING OF
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY AND THOUGH CURRENT RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT AS
HIGH AS WAS SEEN YESTERDAY...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH FOR FLASH
FLOODING TO RESTART.

ALSO ADJUSTED MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...AS THICK CLOUD COVER IS NOT
EXPECTED TO SEE ANY BREAKS UNTIL AFTER 1PM.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR NORTH MISSISSIPPI TODAY...

SIMILAR TO EARLY FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WERE TRAINING OVER NORTH
MS AT DISCUSSION TIME...ROUGHLY ALONG AN EAST/WEST LINE FROM
CLARKSDALE TO TUPELO. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING...GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH WHILE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORMS TO THE NORTH...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW
DROPPING INTO NORTHEAST AR BY MIDDAY.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL LIE OVER NORTH
MS...WHERE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO TRAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER LOW. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS TRIMMED BACK TO REFLECT THE
MOST LIKELY AREAL THREAT...WITH A BUFFER ZONE OVER SOUTHWEST
TN. WHILE STORM CHANCES ARE LOWER OVER SW TN...ANY ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE MEMPHIS METRO COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...
WHERE SOILS ARE SATURATED.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS MEMPHIS AROUND 6 PM
CDT...AND ACROSS NORTH MS THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT WILL
SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW INTO AL. DEPENDING ON THE
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
NEED BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE PKWY.

SUNDAY WILL SEE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH DIURNALLY
ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS. AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL PRESENT SLIGHT
CHANCES OF MAINLY DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH AN MCV OVER
NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL KEEP PREVAILING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KTUP. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
SCATTERED NEAR KJBR WITH VICINITY THUNDER IN THE TAF. PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS
SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST BELOW 7 KTS AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KTUP TO THE
SOUTH OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT WEAK EASTERLY AT KJBR TO
THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
BE POSITIONED IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS AND MVFR CIGS TO THE WEST OF THE LOW
WHICH WILL IMPACT OUR TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH CONVECTION COVERAGE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION
IN THE TAFS ON SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE
     AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE
     MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FAYETTE-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 041839
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
139 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR INCREASING POPS ALONG THE TN/MS BORDER AND FOR
TRENDING MORNING TEMPERATURES DOWN.

DISCUSSION...

RADAR SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS EXTREME NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...AND SPOTTY SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE. HAVE EXTENDED THE LIKELY AND
DEFINITE POPS NORTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. TRAINING OF
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY AND THOUGH CURRENT RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT AS
HIGH AS WAS SEEN YESTERDAY...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH FOR FLASH
FLOODING TO RESTART.

ALSO ADJUSTED MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...AS THICK CLOUD COVER IS NOT
EXPECTED TO SEE ANY BREAKS UNTIL AFTER 1PM.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR NORTH MISSISSIPPI TODAY...

SIMILAR TO EARLY FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WERE TRAINING OVER NORTH
MS AT DISCUSSION TIME...ROUGHLY ALONG AN EAST/WEST LINE FROM
CLARKSDALE TO TUPELO. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING...GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH WHILE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORMS TO THE NORTH...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW
DROPPING INTO NORTHEAST AR BY MIDDAY.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL LIE OVER NORTH
MS...WHERE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO TRAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER LOW. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS TRIMMED BACK TO REFLECT THE
MOST LIKELY AREAL THREAT...WITH A BUFFER ZONE OVER SOUTHWEST
TN. WHILE STORM CHANCES ARE LOWER OVER SW TN...ANY ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE MEMPHIS METRO COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...
WHERE SOILS ARE SATURATED.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS MEMPHIS AROUND 6 PM
CDT...AND ACROSS NORTH MS THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT WILL
SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW INTO AL. DEPENDING ON THE
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
NEED BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE PKWY.

SUNDAY WILL SEE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH DIURNALLY
ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS. AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL PRESENT SLIGHT
CHANCES OF MAINLY DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH AN MCV OVER
NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL KEEP PREVAILING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KTUP. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
SCATTERED NEAR KJBR WITH VICINITY THUNDER IN THE TAF. PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS
SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST BELOW 7 KTS AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KTUP TO THE
SOUTH OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT WEAK EASTERLY AT KJBR TO
THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
BE POSITIONED IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS AND MVFR CIGS TO THE WEST OF THE LOW
WHICH WILL IMPACT OUR TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH CONVECTION COVERAGE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION
IN THE TAFS ON SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE
     AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE
     MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FAYETTE-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 041839
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
139 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR INCREASING POPS ALONG THE TN/MS BORDER AND FOR
TRENDING MORNING TEMPERATURES DOWN.

DISCUSSION...

RADAR SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS EXTREME NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...AND SPOTTY SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE. HAVE EXTENDED THE LIKELY AND
DEFINITE POPS NORTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. TRAINING OF
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY AND THOUGH CURRENT RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT AS
HIGH AS WAS SEEN YESTERDAY...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH FOR FLASH
FLOODING TO RESTART.

ALSO ADJUSTED MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...AS THICK CLOUD COVER IS NOT
EXPECTED TO SEE ANY BREAKS UNTIL AFTER 1PM.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR NORTH MISSISSIPPI TODAY...

SIMILAR TO EARLY FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WERE TRAINING OVER NORTH
MS AT DISCUSSION TIME...ROUGHLY ALONG AN EAST/WEST LINE FROM
CLARKSDALE TO TUPELO. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING...GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH WHILE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORMS TO THE NORTH...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW
DROPPING INTO NORTHEAST AR BY MIDDAY.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL LIE OVER NORTH
MS...WHERE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO TRAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER LOW. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS TRIMMED BACK TO REFLECT THE
MOST LIKELY AREAL THREAT...WITH A BUFFER ZONE OVER SOUTHWEST
TN. WHILE STORM CHANCES ARE LOWER OVER SW TN...ANY ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE MEMPHIS METRO COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...
WHERE SOILS ARE SATURATED.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS MEMPHIS AROUND 6 PM
CDT...AND ACROSS NORTH MS THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT WILL
SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW INTO AL. DEPENDING ON THE
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
NEED BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE PKWY.

SUNDAY WILL SEE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH DIURNALLY
ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS. AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL PRESENT SLIGHT
CHANCES OF MAINLY DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH AN MCV OVER
NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL KEEP PREVAILING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KTUP. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
SCATTERED NEAR KJBR WITH VICINITY THUNDER IN THE TAF. PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS
SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST BELOW 7 KTS AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KTUP TO THE
SOUTH OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT WEAK EASTERLY AT KJBR TO
THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
BE POSITIONED IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS AND MVFR CIGS TO THE WEST OF THE LOW
WHICH WILL IMPACT OUR TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH CONVECTION COVERAGE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION
IN THE TAFS ON SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE
     AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE
     MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FAYETTE-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 041838 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SEVERAL ADMS POSSIBLE THRU 05/18Z. VARIABLE CEILINGS TO CEILING EROSIONS
EXPECTED THRU 05/18Z. WITH CONVECTION INITIATION TIMING AND ASSOCIATED
AREAL COVERAGE HARD TO DEFINITIVELY PINPOINT...ADDRESSED CONVECTION
POTENTIAL WITH VCTS REMARKS. BELIEVE TSTM POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN
05/06Z-05/15Z...AND WILL ADDRESS WITH LIGHT SHWRS CSV...MODERATE SHWRS
BNA...TO MODERATE SHWRS CSV...PER ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW PROMIMITY. FOG FORMATION MAY REDUCE VSYBS CKV/CSV TO
MVFR/IFR THRESHOLDS RESPECTIVELY. MAYBE AN OVERALL DECREASED IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION 05/16Z-05/18Z...BUT VCTS REMARKS MOST APPROPRIATE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 651 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NE OKLAHOMA COMBINED WITH A SFC
BOUNDARY NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER WILL YIELD SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS MIDDLE TN TODAY AND TONIGHT. STUCK WITH MOSTLY VCTS
MENTION AFTER THIS MORNING`S BR AND MVFR CIGS BURN OFF. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR TSRA HOWEVER WILL BE AFTER 00Z FOR CSV AND POSSIBLY BNA
AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE GENERATES A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT...LIKELY DROPPING CSV CONDITIONS
DOWN TO MVFR BRIEFLY. KEPT CSV VCTS AND CB MENTION FOR NOW UNTIL
THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 303 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.

ONGOING SHOWERS WEST TO EAST FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE THROUGH THE
PLATEAU INTO EAST TENNESSEE. ANY SHOWERS OR TSTORMS DURING THE DAY
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SCATTERED. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD AND STALL ALONG
THE TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY BORDER DURING THE DAY TODAY AS MID STATE
REMAINS IN A VERY MOISTURE LADEN TROPOSPHERE. AT SOME POINT DURING
THE DAY MOST LIKELY AFTERNOON EXPECT TO SEE A LINE OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY BORDER WITH STORMS
REMAINING GENERALLY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MAY BE SLOW
MOVING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

CURRENTLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE (SHOWS UP GOOD IN WATER VAPOR) OVER
EASTERN KANSAS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO DIG DOWN THROUGH
ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY AND INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BEGIN TO WORK NORTHWARD AND INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND AREAS ALONG THE
PLATEAU THIS EVENING...THEN DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MOISTURE
GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALONG THE
PLATEAU.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK WITH UPPER PATTERN FINALLY BECOMING ZONAL ABOUT THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND SUNDAY BUT WARM
UP TO SEASONAL NORMALS MONDAY INTO SATURDAY (BNA 89/68).

CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH FOR JULY 4TH IN NASHVILLE IS 103 DEGREES IN
2012. RECORD LOW IS 55 DEGREES IN 1968. RECORD CALENDAR DAY RAINFALL
IS 2.25 INCHES IN 1885. HIGHEST DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE IS 76
DEGREES IN 1921.

IN JULY 2012...NASHVILLE BROKE A STRING OF FOUR CONSECUTIVE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS THAT BEGAN ON JULY 4TH.

JULY 4TH 2012...103...PREVIOUS RECORD 101 IN 1948
JULY 5TH 2012...104...PREVIOUS RECORD 101 IN 1954
JULY 6TH 2012...105...PREVIOUS RECORD 100 IN 1874
JULY 7TH 2012...104...PREVIOUS RECORD 102 IN 1954

THE ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH FOR JULY IN NASHVILLE IS 107 DEGREES
SET BACK ON JULY 27TH AND 28TH 1952.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      81  69  82  68 /  60  50  40  20
CLARKSVILLE    81  69  83  69 /  30  20  30  10
CROSSVILLE     76  67  77  67 /  70  60  70  40
COLUMBIA       81  69  82  68 /  60  60  50  20
LAWRENCEBURG   80  69  81  69 /  70  60  50  20
WAVERLY        80  69  82  69 /  40  30  30  20
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.
&&
$$
31



000
FXUS64 KOHX 041838 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SEVERAL ADMS POSSIBLE THRU 05/18Z. VARIABLE CEILINGS TO CEILING EROSIONS
EXPECTED THRU 05/18Z. WITH CONVECTION INITIATION TIMING AND ASSOCIATED
AREAL COVERAGE HARD TO DEFINITIVELY PINPOINT...ADDRESSED CONVECTION
POTENTIAL WITH VCTS REMARKS. BELIEVE TSTM POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN
05/06Z-05/15Z...AND WILL ADDRESS WITH LIGHT SHWRS CSV...MODERATE SHWRS
BNA...TO MODERATE SHWRS CSV...PER ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW PROMIMITY. FOG FORMATION MAY REDUCE VSYBS CKV/CSV TO
MVFR/IFR THRESHOLDS RESPECTIVELY. MAYBE AN OVERALL DECREASED IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION 05/16Z-05/18Z...BUT VCTS REMARKS MOST APPROPRIATE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 651 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NE OKLAHOMA COMBINED WITH A SFC
BOUNDARY NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER WILL YIELD SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS MIDDLE TN TODAY AND TONIGHT. STUCK WITH MOSTLY VCTS
MENTION AFTER THIS MORNING`S BR AND MVFR CIGS BURN OFF. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR TSRA HOWEVER WILL BE AFTER 00Z FOR CSV AND POSSIBLY BNA
AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE GENERATES A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT...LIKELY DROPPING CSV CONDITIONS
DOWN TO MVFR BRIEFLY. KEPT CSV VCTS AND CB MENTION FOR NOW UNTIL
THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 303 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.

ONGOING SHOWERS WEST TO EAST FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE THROUGH THE
PLATEAU INTO EAST TENNESSEE. ANY SHOWERS OR TSTORMS DURING THE DAY
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SCATTERED. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD AND STALL ALONG
THE TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY BORDER DURING THE DAY TODAY AS MID STATE
REMAINS IN A VERY MOISTURE LADEN TROPOSPHERE. AT SOME POINT DURING
THE DAY MOST LIKELY AFTERNOON EXPECT TO SEE A LINE OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY BORDER WITH STORMS
REMAINING GENERALLY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MAY BE SLOW
MOVING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

CURRENTLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE (SHOWS UP GOOD IN WATER VAPOR) OVER
EASTERN KANSAS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO DIG DOWN THROUGH
ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY AND INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BEGIN TO WORK NORTHWARD AND INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND AREAS ALONG THE
PLATEAU THIS EVENING...THEN DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MOISTURE
GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALONG THE
PLATEAU.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK WITH UPPER PATTERN FINALLY BECOMING ZONAL ABOUT THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND SUNDAY BUT WARM
UP TO SEASONAL NORMALS MONDAY INTO SATURDAY (BNA 89/68).

CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH FOR JULY 4TH IN NASHVILLE IS 103 DEGREES IN
2012. RECORD LOW IS 55 DEGREES IN 1968. RECORD CALENDAR DAY RAINFALL
IS 2.25 INCHES IN 1885. HIGHEST DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE IS 76
DEGREES IN 1921.

IN JULY 2012...NASHVILLE BROKE A STRING OF FOUR CONSECUTIVE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS THAT BEGAN ON JULY 4TH.

JULY 4TH 2012...103...PREVIOUS RECORD 101 IN 1948
JULY 5TH 2012...104...PREVIOUS RECORD 101 IN 1954
JULY 6TH 2012...105...PREVIOUS RECORD 100 IN 1874
JULY 7TH 2012...104...PREVIOUS RECORD 102 IN 1954

THE ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH FOR JULY IN NASHVILLE IS 107 DEGREES
SET BACK ON JULY 27TH AND 28TH 1952.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      81  69  82  68 /  60  50  40  20
CLARKSVILLE    81  69  83  69 /  30  20  30  10
CROSSVILLE     76  67  77  67 /  70  60  70  40
COLUMBIA       81  69  82  68 /  60  60  50  20
LAWRENCEBURG   80  69  81  69 /  70  60  50  20
WAVERLY        80  69  82  69 /  40  30  30  20
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.
&&
$$
31




000
FXUS64 KMRX 041726
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
126 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE
PERIOD...SO LEANED TOWARD PERSISTENCE. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK LOW
OVERALL...SO WILL MOSTLY KEEP OUT OF TAFS. DETAILS STILL HARD TO
PINPOINT...SO WENT WITH GENERAL TRENDS SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS. FOR
NOW TOOK CONDITIONS NO LOWER THAN MVFR...BUT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
LOWER CONDITIONS AT SOME POINT AT LEAST BRIEFLY.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 041726
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
126 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE
PERIOD...SO LEANED TOWARD PERSISTENCE. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK LOW
OVERALL...SO WILL MOSTLY KEEP OUT OF TAFS. DETAILS STILL HARD TO
PINPOINT...SO WENT WITH GENERAL TRENDS SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS. FOR
NOW TOOK CONDITIONS NO LOWER THAN MVFR...BUT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
LOWER CONDITIONS AT SOME POINT AT LEAST BRIEFLY.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMEG 041515
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1015 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR INCREASING POPS ALONG THE TN/MS BORDER AND FOR
TRENDING MORNING TEMPERATURES DOWN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS EXTREME NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...AND SPOTTY SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE. HAVE EXTENDED THE LIKELY AND
DEFINITE POPS NORTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. TRAINING OF
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY AND THOUGH CURRENT RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT AS
HIGH AS WAS SEEN YESTERDAY...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH FOR FLASH
FLOODING TO RESTART.

ALSO ADJUSTED MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...AS THICK CLOUD COVER IS NOT
EXPECTED TO SEE ANY BREAKS UNTIL AFTER 1PM.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
.FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR NORTH MISSISSIPPI TODAY...

SIMILAR TO EARLY FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WERE TRAINING OVER NORTH
MS AT DISCUSSION TIME...ROUGHLY ALONG AN EAST/WEST LINE FROM
CLARKSDALE TO TUPELO. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING...GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH WHILE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORMS TO THE NORTH...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW
DROPPING INTO NORTHEAST AR BY MIDDAY.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL LIE OVER NORTH
MS...WHERE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO TRAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER LOW. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS TRIMMED BACK TO REFLECT THE
MOST LIKELY AREAL THREAT...WITH A BUFFER ZONE OVER SOUTHWEST
TN. WHILE STORM CHANCES ARE LOWER OVER SW TN...ANY ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE MEMPHIS METRO COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...
WHERE SOILS ARE SATURATED.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS MEMPHIS AROUND 6 PM
CDT...AND ACROSS NORTH MS THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT WILL
SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW INTO AL. DEPENDING ON THE
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
NEED BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE PKWY.

SUNDAY WILL SEE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH DIURNALLY
ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS. AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL PRESENT SLIGHT
CHANCES OF MAINLY DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR...IFR.. AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS THE MORNING CONTINUES BUT
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VCTS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL 4 TAF SITES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 18Z AS AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE MIDSOUTH. VCTS WILL GIVE WAY TO VCSH OVERNIGHT AS
THE LOW EXITS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE S OR SW
DURING THE DAY AT BETWEEN 5-10KTS BEFORE BECOMING MAINLY LIGHT AND
FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE
     AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE
     MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FAYETTE-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 041515
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1015 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR INCREASING POPS ALONG THE TN/MS BORDER AND FOR
TRENDING MORNING TEMPERATURES DOWN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS EXTREME NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...AND SPOTTY SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE. HAVE EXTENDED THE LIKELY AND
DEFINITE POPS NORTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. TRAINING OF
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY AND THOUGH CURRENT RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT AS
HIGH AS WAS SEEN YESTERDAY...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH FOR FLASH
FLOODING TO RESTART.

ALSO ADJUSTED MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...AS THICK CLOUD COVER IS NOT
EXPECTED TO SEE ANY BREAKS UNTIL AFTER 1PM.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
.FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR NORTH MISSISSIPPI TODAY...

SIMILAR TO EARLY FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WERE TRAINING OVER NORTH
MS AT DISCUSSION TIME...ROUGHLY ALONG AN EAST/WEST LINE FROM
CLARKSDALE TO TUPELO. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING...GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH WHILE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORMS TO THE NORTH...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW
DROPPING INTO NORTHEAST AR BY MIDDAY.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL LIE OVER NORTH
MS...WHERE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO TRAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER LOW. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS TRIMMED BACK TO REFLECT THE
MOST LIKELY AREAL THREAT...WITH A BUFFER ZONE OVER SOUTHWEST
TN. WHILE STORM CHANCES ARE LOWER OVER SW TN...ANY ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE MEMPHIS METRO COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...
WHERE SOILS ARE SATURATED.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS MEMPHIS AROUND 6 PM
CDT...AND ACROSS NORTH MS THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT WILL
SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW INTO AL. DEPENDING ON THE
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
NEED BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE PKWY.

SUNDAY WILL SEE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH DIURNALLY
ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS. AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL PRESENT SLIGHT
CHANCES OF MAINLY DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR...IFR.. AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS THE MORNING CONTINUES BUT
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VCTS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL 4 TAF SITES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 18Z AS AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE MIDSOUTH. VCTS WILL GIVE WAY TO VCSH OVERNIGHT AS
THE LOW EXITS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE S OR SW
DURING THE DAY AT BETWEEN 5-10KTS BEFORE BECOMING MAINLY LIGHT AND
FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE
     AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE
     MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FAYETTE-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 041410
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1010 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY GENERALLY APPEARS
TO BE ON TRACK. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AGAIN...BUT AGAIN LOOKS
LIKE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL RESTRICT HEATING AND INSTABILITY WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT THUNDER. WILL JUST TWEAK TEMPS...DEW
POINTS...AND WIND IN THE DATABASE. NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             80  69  82  68 /  80  70  70  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  79  67  80  66 /  80  70  70  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       79  67  80  66 /  70  60  70  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              79  65  77  63 /  70  50  70  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 041410
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1010 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY GENERALLY APPEARS
TO BE ON TRACK. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AGAIN...BUT AGAIN LOOKS
LIKE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL RESTRICT HEATING AND INSTABILITY WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT THUNDER. WILL JUST TWEAK TEMPS...DEW
POINTS...AND WIND IN THE DATABASE. NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             80  69  82  68 /  80  70  70  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  79  67  80  66 /  80  70  70  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       79  67  80  66 /  70  60  70  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              79  65  77  63 /  70  50  70  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMEG 041208
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
708 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
..FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR NORTH MISSISSIPPI TODAY...

SIMILAR TO EARLY FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WERE TRAINING OVER NORTH
MS AT DISCUSSION TIME...ROUGHLY ALONG AN EAST/WEST LINE FROM
CLARKSDALE TO TUPELO. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING...GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH WHILE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORMS TO THE NORTH...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW
DROPPING INTO NORTHEAST AR BY MIDDAY.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL LIE OVER NORTH
MS...WHERE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO TRAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER LOW. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS TRIMMED BACK TO REFLECT THE
MOST LIKELY AREAL THREAT...WITH A BUFFER ZONE OVER SOUTHWEST
TN. WHILE STORM CHANCES ARE LOWER OVER SW TN...ANY ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE MEMPHIS METRO COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...
WHERE SOILS ARE SATURATED.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS MEMPHIS AROUND 6 PM
CDT...AND ACROSS NORTH MS THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT WILL
SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW INTO AL. DEPENDING ON THE
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
NEED BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE PKWY.

SUNDAY WILL SEE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH DIURNALLY
ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS. AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL PRESENT SLIGHT
CHANCES OF MAINLY DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

PWB

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR...IFR.. AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS THE MORNING CONTINUES BUT
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VCTS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL 4 TAF SITES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 18Z AS AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE MIDSOUTH. VCTS WILL GIVE WAY TO VCSH OVERNIGHT AS
THE LOW EXITS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE S OR SW
DURING THE DAY AT BETWEEN 5-10KTS BEFORE BECOMING MAINLY LIGHT AND
FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-
     PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 041208
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
708 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
..FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR NORTH MISSISSIPPI TODAY...

SIMILAR TO EARLY FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WERE TRAINING OVER NORTH
MS AT DISCUSSION TIME...ROUGHLY ALONG AN EAST/WEST LINE FROM
CLARKSDALE TO TUPELO. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING...GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH WHILE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORMS TO THE NORTH...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW
DROPPING INTO NORTHEAST AR BY MIDDAY.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL LIE OVER NORTH
MS...WHERE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO TRAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER LOW. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS TRIMMED BACK TO REFLECT THE
MOST LIKELY AREAL THREAT...WITH A BUFFER ZONE OVER SOUTHWEST
TN. WHILE STORM CHANCES ARE LOWER OVER SW TN...ANY ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE MEMPHIS METRO COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...
WHERE SOILS ARE SATURATED.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS MEMPHIS AROUND 6 PM
CDT...AND ACROSS NORTH MS THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT WILL
SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW INTO AL. DEPENDING ON THE
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
NEED BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE PKWY.

SUNDAY WILL SEE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH DIURNALLY
ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS. AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL PRESENT SLIGHT
CHANCES OF MAINLY DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

PWB

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR...IFR.. AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS THE MORNING CONTINUES BUT
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VCTS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL 4 TAF SITES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 18Z AS AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE MIDSOUTH. VCTS WILL GIVE WAY TO VCSH OVERNIGHT AS
THE LOW EXITS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE S OR SW
DURING THE DAY AT BETWEEN 5-10KTS BEFORE BECOMING MAINLY LIGHT AND
FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-
     PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 041208
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
708 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
..FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR NORTH MISSISSIPPI TODAY...

SIMILAR TO EARLY FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WERE TRAINING OVER NORTH
MS AT DISCUSSION TIME...ROUGHLY ALONG AN EAST/WEST LINE FROM
CLARKSDALE TO TUPELO. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING...GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH WHILE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORMS TO THE NORTH...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW
DROPPING INTO NORTHEAST AR BY MIDDAY.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL LIE OVER NORTH
MS...WHERE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO TRAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER LOW. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS TRIMMED BACK TO REFLECT THE
MOST LIKELY AREAL THREAT...WITH A BUFFER ZONE OVER SOUTHWEST
TN. WHILE STORM CHANCES ARE LOWER OVER SW TN...ANY ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE MEMPHIS METRO COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...
WHERE SOILS ARE SATURATED.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS MEMPHIS AROUND 6 PM
CDT...AND ACROSS NORTH MS THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT WILL
SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW INTO AL. DEPENDING ON THE
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
NEED BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE PKWY.

SUNDAY WILL SEE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH DIURNALLY
ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS. AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL PRESENT SLIGHT
CHANCES OF MAINLY DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

PWB

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR...IFR.. AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS THE MORNING CONTINUES BUT
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VCTS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL 4 TAF SITES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 18Z AS AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE MIDSOUTH. VCTS WILL GIVE WAY TO VCSH OVERNIGHT AS
THE LOW EXITS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE S OR SW
DURING THE DAY AT BETWEEN 5-10KTS BEFORE BECOMING MAINLY LIGHT AND
FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-
     PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 041208
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
708 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
..FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR NORTH MISSISSIPPI TODAY...

SIMILAR TO EARLY FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WERE TRAINING OVER NORTH
MS AT DISCUSSION TIME...ROUGHLY ALONG AN EAST/WEST LINE FROM
CLARKSDALE TO TUPELO. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING...GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH WHILE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORMS TO THE NORTH...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW
DROPPING INTO NORTHEAST AR BY MIDDAY.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL LIE OVER NORTH
MS...WHERE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO TRAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER LOW. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS TRIMMED BACK TO REFLECT THE
MOST LIKELY AREAL THREAT...WITH A BUFFER ZONE OVER SOUTHWEST
TN. WHILE STORM CHANCES ARE LOWER OVER SW TN...ANY ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE MEMPHIS METRO COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...
WHERE SOILS ARE SATURATED.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS MEMPHIS AROUND 6 PM
CDT...AND ACROSS NORTH MS THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT WILL
SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW INTO AL. DEPENDING ON THE
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
NEED BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE PKWY.

SUNDAY WILL SEE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH DIURNALLY
ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS. AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL PRESENT SLIGHT
CHANCES OF MAINLY DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

PWB

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR...IFR.. AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS THE MORNING CONTINUES BUT
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VCTS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL 4 TAF SITES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 18Z AS AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE MIDSOUTH. VCTS WILL GIVE WAY TO VCSH OVERNIGHT AS
THE LOW EXITS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE S OR SW
DURING THE DAY AT BETWEEN 5-10KTS BEFORE BECOMING MAINLY LIGHT AND
FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-
     PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 041151
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
651 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NE OKLAHOMA COMBINED WITH A SFC
BOUNDARY NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER WILL YIELD SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS MIDDLE TN TODAY AND TONIGHT. STUCK WITH MOSTLY VCTS
MENTION AFTER THIS MORNING`S BR AND MVFR CIGS BURN OFF. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR TSRA HOWEVER WILL BE AFTER 00Z FOR CSV AND POSSIBLY BNA
AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE GENERATES A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT...LIKELY DROPPING CSV CONDITIONS
DOWN TO MVFR BRIEFLY. KEPT CSV VCTS AND CB MENTION FOR NOW UNTIL
THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.

ONGOING SHOWERS WEST TO EAST FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE THROUGH THE
PLATEAU INTO EAST TENNESSEE. ANY SHOWERS OR TSTORMS DURING THE DAY
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SCATTERED. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD AND STALL ALONG
THE TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY BORDER DURING THE DAY TODAY AS MID STATE
REMAINS IN A VERY MOISTURE LADEN TROPOSPHERE. AT SOME POINT DURING
THE DAY MOST LIKELY AFTERNOON EXPECT TO SEE A LINE OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY BORDER WITH STORMS
REMAINING GENERALLY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MAY BE SLOW
MOVING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

CURRENTLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE (SHOWS UP GOOD IN WATER VAPOR) OVER
EASTERN KANSAS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO DIG DOWN THROUGH
ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY AND INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BEGIN TO WORK NORTHWARD AND INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND AREAS ALONG THE
PLATEAU THIS EVENING...THEN DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MOISTURE
GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALONG THE
PLATEAU.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK WITH UPPER PATTERN FINALLY BECOMING ZONAL ABOUT THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND SUNDAY BUT WARM
UP TO SEASONAL NORMALS MONDAY INTO SATURDAY (BNA 89/68).

CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH FOR JULY 4TH IN NASHVILLE IS 103 DEGREES IN
2012. RECORD LOW IS 55 DEGREES IN 1968. RECORD CALENDAR DAY RAINFALL
IS 2.25 INCHES IN 1885. HIGHEST DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE IS 76
DEGREES IN 1921.

IN JULY 2012...NASHVILLE BROKE A STRING OF FOUR CONSECUTIVE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS THAT BEGAN ON JULY 4TH.

JULY 4TH 2012...103...PREVIOUS RECORD 101 IN 1948
JULY 5TH 2012...104...PREVIOUS RECORD 101 IN 1954
JULY 6TH 2012...105...PREVIOUS RECORD 100 IN 1874
JULY 7TH 2012...104...PREVIOUS RECORD 102 IN 1954

THE ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH FOR JULY IN NASHVILLE IS 107 DEGREES
SET BACK ON JULY 27TH AND 28TH 1952.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      81  69  82  68 /  60  50  40  20
CLARKSVILLE    81  69  83  69 /  30  20  30  10
CROSSVILLE     76  67  77  67 /  70  60  70  40
COLUMBIA       81  69  82  68 /  60  60  50  20
LAWRENCEBURG   80  69  81  69 /  70  60  50  20
WAVERLY        80  69  82  69 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-027>034-
062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

AL




000
FXUS64 KOHX 041151
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
651 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NE OKLAHOMA COMBINED WITH A SFC
BOUNDARY NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER WILL YIELD SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS MIDDLE TN TODAY AND TONIGHT. STUCK WITH MOSTLY VCTS
MENTION AFTER THIS MORNING`S BR AND MVFR CIGS BURN OFF. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR TSRA HOWEVER WILL BE AFTER 00Z FOR CSV AND POSSIBLY BNA
AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE GENERATES A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT...LIKELY DROPPING CSV CONDITIONS
DOWN TO MVFR BRIEFLY. KEPT CSV VCTS AND CB MENTION FOR NOW UNTIL
THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.

ONGOING SHOWERS WEST TO EAST FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE THROUGH THE
PLATEAU INTO EAST TENNESSEE. ANY SHOWERS OR TSTORMS DURING THE DAY
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SCATTERED. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD AND STALL ALONG
THE TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY BORDER DURING THE DAY TODAY AS MID STATE
REMAINS IN A VERY MOISTURE LADEN TROPOSPHERE. AT SOME POINT DURING
THE DAY MOST LIKELY AFTERNOON EXPECT TO SEE A LINE OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY BORDER WITH STORMS
REMAINING GENERALLY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MAY BE SLOW
MOVING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

CURRENTLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE (SHOWS UP GOOD IN WATER VAPOR) OVER
EASTERN KANSAS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO DIG DOWN THROUGH
ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY AND INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BEGIN TO WORK NORTHWARD AND INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND AREAS ALONG THE
PLATEAU THIS EVENING...THEN DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MOISTURE
GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALONG THE
PLATEAU.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK WITH UPPER PATTERN FINALLY BECOMING ZONAL ABOUT THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND SUNDAY BUT WARM
UP TO SEASONAL NORMALS MONDAY INTO SATURDAY (BNA 89/68).

CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH FOR JULY 4TH IN NASHVILLE IS 103 DEGREES IN
2012. RECORD LOW IS 55 DEGREES IN 1968. RECORD CALENDAR DAY RAINFALL
IS 2.25 INCHES IN 1885. HIGHEST DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE IS 76
DEGREES IN 1921.

IN JULY 2012...NASHVILLE BROKE A STRING OF FOUR CONSECUTIVE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS THAT BEGAN ON JULY 4TH.

JULY 4TH 2012...103...PREVIOUS RECORD 101 IN 1948
JULY 5TH 2012...104...PREVIOUS RECORD 101 IN 1954
JULY 6TH 2012...105...PREVIOUS RECORD 100 IN 1874
JULY 7TH 2012...104...PREVIOUS RECORD 102 IN 1954

THE ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH FOR JULY IN NASHVILLE IS 107 DEGREES
SET BACK ON JULY 27TH AND 28TH 1952.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      81  69  82  68 /  60  50  40  20
CLARKSVILLE    81  69  83  69 /  30  20  30  10
CROSSVILLE     76  67  77  67 /  70  60  70  40
COLUMBIA       81  69  82  68 /  60  60  50  20
LAWRENCEBURG   80  69  81  69 /  70  60  50  20
WAVERLY        80  69  82  69 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-027>034-
062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

AL




000
FXUS64 KOHX 041151
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
651 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NE OKLAHOMA COMBINED WITH A SFC
BOUNDARY NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER WILL YIELD SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS MIDDLE TN TODAY AND TONIGHT. STUCK WITH MOSTLY VCTS
MENTION AFTER THIS MORNING`S BR AND MVFR CIGS BURN OFF. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR TSRA HOWEVER WILL BE AFTER 00Z FOR CSV AND POSSIBLY BNA
AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE GENERATES A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT...LIKELY DROPPING CSV CONDITIONS
DOWN TO MVFR BRIEFLY. KEPT CSV VCTS AND CB MENTION FOR NOW UNTIL
THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.

ONGOING SHOWERS WEST TO EAST FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE THROUGH THE
PLATEAU INTO EAST TENNESSEE. ANY SHOWERS OR TSTORMS DURING THE DAY
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SCATTERED. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD AND STALL ALONG
THE TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY BORDER DURING THE DAY TODAY AS MID STATE
REMAINS IN A VERY MOISTURE LADEN TROPOSPHERE. AT SOME POINT DURING
THE DAY MOST LIKELY AFTERNOON EXPECT TO SEE A LINE OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY BORDER WITH STORMS
REMAINING GENERALLY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MAY BE SLOW
MOVING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

CURRENTLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE (SHOWS UP GOOD IN WATER VAPOR) OVER
EASTERN KANSAS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO DIG DOWN THROUGH
ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY AND INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BEGIN TO WORK NORTHWARD AND INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND AREAS ALONG THE
PLATEAU THIS EVENING...THEN DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MOISTURE
GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALONG THE
PLATEAU.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK WITH UPPER PATTERN FINALLY BECOMING ZONAL ABOUT THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND SUNDAY BUT WARM
UP TO SEASONAL NORMALS MONDAY INTO SATURDAY (BNA 89/68).

CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH FOR JULY 4TH IN NASHVILLE IS 103 DEGREES IN
2012. RECORD LOW IS 55 DEGREES IN 1968. RECORD CALENDAR DAY RAINFALL
IS 2.25 INCHES IN 1885. HIGHEST DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE IS 76
DEGREES IN 1921.

IN JULY 2012...NASHVILLE BROKE A STRING OF FOUR CONSECUTIVE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS THAT BEGAN ON JULY 4TH.

JULY 4TH 2012...103...PREVIOUS RECORD 101 IN 1948
JULY 5TH 2012...104...PREVIOUS RECORD 101 IN 1954
JULY 6TH 2012...105...PREVIOUS RECORD 100 IN 1874
JULY 7TH 2012...104...PREVIOUS RECORD 102 IN 1954

THE ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH FOR JULY IN NASHVILLE IS 107 DEGREES
SET BACK ON JULY 27TH AND 28TH 1952.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      81  69  82  68 /  60  50  40  20
CLARKSVILLE    81  69  83  69 /  30  20  30  10
CROSSVILLE     76  67  77  67 /  70  60  70  40
COLUMBIA       81  69  82  68 /  60  60  50  20
LAWRENCEBURG   80  69  81  69 /  70  60  50  20
WAVERLY        80  69  82  69 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-027>034-
062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

AL




000
FXUS64 KOHX 041151
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
651 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NE OKLAHOMA COMBINED WITH A SFC
BOUNDARY NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER WILL YIELD SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS MIDDLE TN TODAY AND TONIGHT. STUCK WITH MOSTLY VCTS
MENTION AFTER THIS MORNING`S BR AND MVFR CIGS BURN OFF. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR TSRA HOWEVER WILL BE AFTER 00Z FOR CSV AND POSSIBLY BNA
AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE GENERATES A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT...LIKELY DROPPING CSV CONDITIONS
DOWN TO MVFR BRIEFLY. KEPT CSV VCTS AND CB MENTION FOR NOW UNTIL
THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.

ONGOING SHOWERS WEST TO EAST FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE THROUGH THE
PLATEAU INTO EAST TENNESSEE. ANY SHOWERS OR TSTORMS DURING THE DAY
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SCATTERED. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD AND STALL ALONG
THE TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY BORDER DURING THE DAY TODAY AS MID STATE
REMAINS IN A VERY MOISTURE LADEN TROPOSPHERE. AT SOME POINT DURING
THE DAY MOST LIKELY AFTERNOON EXPECT TO SEE A LINE OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY BORDER WITH STORMS
REMAINING GENERALLY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MAY BE SLOW
MOVING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

CURRENTLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE (SHOWS UP GOOD IN WATER VAPOR) OVER
EASTERN KANSAS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO DIG DOWN THROUGH
ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY AND INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BEGIN TO WORK NORTHWARD AND INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND AREAS ALONG THE
PLATEAU THIS EVENING...THEN DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MOISTURE
GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALONG THE
PLATEAU.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK WITH UPPER PATTERN FINALLY BECOMING ZONAL ABOUT THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND SUNDAY BUT WARM
UP TO SEASONAL NORMALS MONDAY INTO SATURDAY (BNA 89/68).

CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH FOR JULY 4TH IN NASHVILLE IS 103 DEGREES IN
2012. RECORD LOW IS 55 DEGREES IN 1968. RECORD CALENDAR DAY RAINFALL
IS 2.25 INCHES IN 1885. HIGHEST DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE IS 76
DEGREES IN 1921.

IN JULY 2012...NASHVILLE BROKE A STRING OF FOUR CONSECUTIVE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS THAT BEGAN ON JULY 4TH.

JULY 4TH 2012...103...PREVIOUS RECORD 101 IN 1948
JULY 5TH 2012...104...PREVIOUS RECORD 101 IN 1954
JULY 6TH 2012...105...PREVIOUS RECORD 100 IN 1874
JULY 7TH 2012...104...PREVIOUS RECORD 102 IN 1954

THE ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH FOR JULY IN NASHVILLE IS 107 DEGREES
SET BACK ON JULY 27TH AND 28TH 1952.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      81  69  82  68 /  60  50  40  20
CLARKSVILLE    81  69  83  69 /  30  20  30  10
CROSSVILLE     76  67  77  67 /  70  60  70  40
COLUMBIA       81  69  82  68 /  60  60  50  20
LAWRENCEBURG   80  69  81  69 /  70  60  50  20
WAVERLY        80  69  82  69 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-027>034-
062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

AL




000
FXUS64 KMRX 041139
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
739 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KENTUCKY WILL
NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT. BEST
CHANCES FOR SITES WILL BE DURING THE MORNING AND THEN AROUND MID
AFTERNOON TODAY. SHOWERS WILL DROP VSBY AND CEILINGS TO MVFR AT
TIMES DURING THE DAY AT ALL SITES. LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBY WILL BE
MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT STARTING FROM 03-06Z AND CONTINUEING INTO THE
MID MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 041139
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
739 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KENTUCKY WILL
NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT. BEST
CHANCES FOR SITES WILL BE DURING THE MORNING AND THEN AROUND MID
AFTERNOON TODAY. SHOWERS WILL DROP VSBY AND CEILINGS TO MVFR AT
TIMES DURING THE DAY AT ALL SITES. LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBY WILL BE
MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT STARTING FROM 03-06Z AND CONTINUEING INTO THE
MID MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD



000
FXUS64 KMRX 041139
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
739 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KENTUCKY WILL
NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT. BEST
CHANCES FOR SITES WILL BE DURING THE MORNING AND THEN AROUND MID
AFTERNOON TODAY. SHOWERS WILL DROP VSBY AND CEILINGS TO MVFR AT
TIMES DURING THE DAY AT ALL SITES. LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBY WILL BE
MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT STARTING FROM 03-06Z AND CONTINUEING INTO THE
MID MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD



000
FXUS64 KMRX 041139
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
739 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KENTUCKY WILL
NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT. BEST
CHANCES FOR SITES WILL BE DURING THE MORNING AND THEN AROUND MID
AFTERNOON TODAY. SHOWERS WILL DROP VSBY AND CEILINGS TO MVFR AT
TIMES DURING THE DAY AT ALL SITES. LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBY WILL BE
MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT STARTING FROM 03-06Z AND CONTINUEING INTO THE
MID MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMEG 040907
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
407 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
...FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR NORTH MISSISSIPPI TODAY...

SIMILAR TO EARLY FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WERE TRAINING OVER NORTH
MS AT DISCUSSION TIME...ROUGHLY ALONG AN EAST/WEST LINE FROM
CLARKSDALE TO TUPELO. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING...GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH WHILE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORMS TO THE NORTH...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW
DROPPING INTO NORTHEAST AR BY MIDDAY.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL LIE OVER NORTH
MS...WHERE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO TRAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER LOW. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS TRIMMED BACK TO REFLECT THE
MOST LIKELY AREAL THREAT...WITH A BUFFER ZONE OVER SOUTHWEST
TN. WHILE STORM CHANCES ARE LOWER OVER SW TN...ANY ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE MEMPHIS METRO COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...
WHERE SOILS ARE SATURATED.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS MEMPHIS AROUND 6 PM
CDT...AND ACROSS NORTH MS THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT WILL
SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW INTO AL. DEPENDING ON THE
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
NEED BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE PKWY.

SUNDAY WILL SEE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH DIURNALLY
ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS. AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL PRESENT SLIGHT
CHANCES OF MAINLY DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD FROM EAST CENTRAL
AR INTO NORTH MS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AFFECTING KTUP.
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR AREAWIDE...POSSIBLY LIFR IN
SOME LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN MOSTLY VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOWERING
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AREAWIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY
EVENING.

WINDS TONIGHT SW 4-8 KTS. WINDS SATURDAY S-SW 7-9 KTS.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-
     PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 040907
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
407 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
...FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR NORTH MISSISSIPPI TODAY...

SIMILAR TO EARLY FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WERE TRAINING OVER NORTH
MS AT DISCUSSION TIME...ROUGHLY ALONG AN EAST/WEST LINE FROM
CLARKSDALE TO TUPELO. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING...GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH WHILE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORMS TO THE NORTH...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW
DROPPING INTO NORTHEAST AR BY MIDDAY.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL LIE OVER NORTH
MS...WHERE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO TRAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER LOW. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS TRIMMED BACK TO REFLECT THE
MOST LIKELY AREAL THREAT...WITH A BUFFER ZONE OVER SOUTHWEST
TN. WHILE STORM CHANCES ARE LOWER OVER SW TN...ANY ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE MEMPHIS METRO COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...
WHERE SOILS ARE SATURATED.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS MEMPHIS AROUND 6 PM
CDT...AND ACROSS NORTH MS THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT WILL
SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW INTO AL. DEPENDING ON THE
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
NEED BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE PKWY.

SUNDAY WILL SEE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH DIURNALLY
ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS. AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL PRESENT SLIGHT
CHANCES OF MAINLY DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD FROM EAST CENTRAL
AR INTO NORTH MS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AFFECTING KTUP.
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR AREAWIDE...POSSIBLY LIFR IN
SOME LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN MOSTLY VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOWERING
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AREAWIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY
EVENING.

WINDS TONIGHT SW 4-8 KTS. WINDS SATURDAY S-SW 7-9 KTS.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-
     PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 040907
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
407 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
...FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR NORTH MISSISSIPPI TODAY...

SIMILAR TO EARLY FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WERE TRAINING OVER NORTH
MS AT DISCUSSION TIME...ROUGHLY ALONG AN EAST/WEST LINE FROM
CLARKSDALE TO TUPELO. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING...GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH WHILE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORMS TO THE NORTH...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW
DROPPING INTO NORTHEAST AR BY MIDDAY.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL LIE OVER NORTH
MS...WHERE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO TRAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER LOW. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS TRIMMED BACK TO REFLECT THE
MOST LIKELY AREAL THREAT...WITH A BUFFER ZONE OVER SOUTHWEST
TN. WHILE STORM CHANCES ARE LOWER OVER SW TN...ANY ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE MEMPHIS METRO COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...
WHERE SOILS ARE SATURATED.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS MEMPHIS AROUND 6 PM
CDT...AND ACROSS NORTH MS THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT WILL
SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW INTO AL. DEPENDING ON THE
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
NEED BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE PKWY.

SUNDAY WILL SEE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH DIURNALLY
ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS. AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL PRESENT SLIGHT
CHANCES OF MAINLY DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD FROM EAST CENTRAL
AR INTO NORTH MS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AFFECTING KTUP.
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR AREAWIDE...POSSIBLY LIFR IN
SOME LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN MOSTLY VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOWERING
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AREAWIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY
EVENING.

WINDS TONIGHT SW 4-8 KTS. WINDS SATURDAY S-SW 7-9 KTS.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-
     PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 040907
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
407 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
...FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR NORTH MISSISSIPPI TODAY...

SIMILAR TO EARLY FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WERE TRAINING OVER NORTH
MS AT DISCUSSION TIME...ROUGHLY ALONG AN EAST/WEST LINE FROM
CLARKSDALE TO TUPELO. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING...GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH WHILE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORMS TO THE NORTH...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW
DROPPING INTO NORTHEAST AR BY MIDDAY.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL LIE OVER NORTH
MS...WHERE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO TRAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER LOW. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS TRIMMED BACK TO REFLECT THE
MOST LIKELY AREAL THREAT...WITH A BUFFER ZONE OVER SOUTHWEST
TN. WHILE STORM CHANCES ARE LOWER OVER SW TN...ANY ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE MEMPHIS METRO COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...
WHERE SOILS ARE SATURATED.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS MEMPHIS AROUND 6 PM
CDT...AND ACROSS NORTH MS THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT WILL
SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW INTO AL. DEPENDING ON THE
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
NEED BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE PKWY.

SUNDAY WILL SEE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH DIURNALLY
ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS. AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL PRESENT SLIGHT
CHANCES OF MAINLY DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD FROM EAST CENTRAL
AR INTO NORTH MS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AFFECTING KTUP.
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR AREAWIDE...POSSIBLY LIFR IN
SOME LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN MOSTLY VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOWERING
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AREAWIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY
EVENING.

WINDS TONIGHT SW 4-8 KTS. WINDS SATURDAY S-SW 7-9 KTS.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-
     PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 040803
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
303 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.

ONGOING SHOWERS WEST TO EAST FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE THROUGH THE
PLATEAU INTO EAST TENNESSEE. ANY SHOWERS OR TSTORMS DURING THE DAY
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SCATTERED. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD AND STALL ALONG
THE TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY BORDER DURING THE DAY TODAY AS MID STATE
REMAINS IN A VERY MOISTURE LADEN TROPOSPHERE. AT SOME POINT DURING
THE DAY MOST LIKELY AFTERNOON EXPECT TO SEE A LINE OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY BORDER WITH STORMS
REMAINING GENERALLY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MAY BE SLOW
MOVING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

CURRENTLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE (SHOWS UP GOOD IN WATER VAPOR) OVER
EASTERN KANSAS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO DIG DOWN THROUGH
ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY AND INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BEGIN TO WORK NORTHWARD AND INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND AREAS ALONG THE
PLATEAU THIS EVENING...THEN DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MOISTURE
GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD. ADDITONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE
INCH IS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALONG THE PLATEAU.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK WITH UPPER PATTERN FINALLY BECOMING ZONAL ABOUT THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND SUNDAY BUT WARM
UP TO SEASONAL NORMALS MONDAY INTO SATURDAY (BNA 89/68).

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH FOR JULY 4TH IN NASHVILLE IS 103 DEGREES IN
2012. RECORD LOW IS 55 DEGREES IN 1968. RECORD CALENDAR DAY RAINFALL
IS 2.25 INCHES IN 1885. HIGHEST DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE IS 76
DEGREES IN 1921.

IN JULY 2012...NASHVILLE BROKE A STRING OF FOUR CONSECUTIVE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS THAT BEGAN ON JULY 4TH.

JULY 4TH 2012...103...PREVIOUS RECORD 101 IN 1948
JULY 5TH 2012...104...PREVIOUS RECORD 101 IN 1954
JULY 6TH 2012...105...PREVIOUS RECORD 100 IN 1874
JULY 7TH 2012...104...PREVIOUS RECORD 102 IN 1954

THE ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH FOR JULY IN NASHVILLE IS 107 DEGREES
SET BACK ON JULY 27TH AND 28TH 1952.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      80  69  82  68 /  60  50  40  20
CLARKSVILLE    82  69  83  69 /  30  20  30  10
CROSSVILLE     76  67  77  67 /  70  60  70  40
COLUMBIA       81  69  82  68 /  60  60  50  20
LAWRENCEBURG   80  69  81  69 /  70  60  50  20
WAVERLY        80  69  82  69 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-027>034-
062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$
BOYD
01



000
FXUS64 KOHX 040803
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
303 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.

ONGOING SHOWERS WEST TO EAST FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE THROUGH THE
PLATEAU INTO EAST TENNESSEE. ANY SHOWERS OR TSTORMS DURING THE DAY
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SCATTERED. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD AND STALL ALONG
THE TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY BORDER DURING THE DAY TODAY AS MID STATE
REMAINS IN A VERY MOISTURE LADEN TROPOSPHERE. AT SOME POINT DURING
THE DAY MOST LIKELY AFTERNOON EXPECT TO SEE A LINE OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY BORDER WITH STORMS
REMAINING GENERALLY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MAY BE SLOW
MOVING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

CURRENTLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE (SHOWS UP GOOD IN WATER VAPOR) OVER
EASTERN KANSAS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO DIG DOWN THROUGH
ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY AND INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BEGIN TO WORK NORTHWARD AND INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND AREAS ALONG THE
PLATEAU THIS EVENING...THEN DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MOISTURE
GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD. ADDITONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE
INCH IS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALONG THE PLATEAU.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK WITH UPPER PATTERN FINALLY BECOMING ZONAL ABOUT THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND SUNDAY BUT WARM
UP TO SEASONAL NORMALS MONDAY INTO SATURDAY (BNA 89/68).

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH FOR JULY 4TH IN NASHVILLE IS 103 DEGREES IN
2012. RECORD LOW IS 55 DEGREES IN 1968. RECORD CALENDAR DAY RAINFALL
IS 2.25 INCHES IN 1885. HIGHEST DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE IS 76
DEGREES IN 1921.

IN JULY 2012...NASHVILLE BROKE A STRING OF FOUR CONSECUTIVE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS THAT BEGAN ON JULY 4TH.

JULY 4TH 2012...103...PREVIOUS RECORD 101 IN 1948
JULY 5TH 2012...104...PREVIOUS RECORD 101 IN 1954
JULY 6TH 2012...105...PREVIOUS RECORD 100 IN 1874
JULY 7TH 2012...104...PREVIOUS RECORD 102 IN 1954

THE ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH FOR JULY IN NASHVILLE IS 107 DEGREES
SET BACK ON JULY 27TH AND 28TH 1952.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      80  69  82  68 /  60  50  40  20
CLARKSVILLE    82  69  83  69 /  30  20  30  10
CROSSVILLE     76  67  77  67 /  70  60  70  40
COLUMBIA       81  69  82  68 /  60  60  50  20
LAWRENCEBURG   80  69  81  69 /  70  60  50  20
WAVERLY        80  69  82  69 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-027>034-
062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$
BOYD
01




000
FXUS64 KMRX 040754
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
354 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL
PATTERN THIS MORNING AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. NOT AS MUCH SHOWER
ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME FRIDAY AND AMOUNTS ARE LOWER
THAN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT STILL OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. STATIONARY FRONT STILL LIES TO THE NORTH WITH UPPER
TROUGH DRAPED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. WATER VAPOR
AND IR SATELLITE SHOWING SHORT WAVE DIGGING THROUGH KANSAS INTO THE
TROUGH AND THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FIRING FROM OK THROUGH AR
INTO MS AND AL EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AS THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENHANCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. ANOTHER INCH OR MORE OF RAIN COULD FALL WHICH WOULD
AGGRAVATE FLOODING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND
PLATEAU. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED ANOTHER 24 HOURS.
TEMPERATURES AGAIN LIKE FRIDAY MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 70S. TONIGHT
NORTHEAST AREA COULD BE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SO HAVE POPS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THERE.

.LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED. MODELS BRING AN UPPER LOW THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY FOR
LIKELY POPS. MODELS SLOWLY PULL THE LOW OUT OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...NAM GENERALLY WETTER THAN THE GFS...BUT HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS STILL ON TRACK FOR EARLY MONDAY. WEAK RIDGING ON
TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME DRY CONDITIONS
...THOUGH DIURNAL SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE. UNSETTLE
WEATHER CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE REMNANTS OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN WEDNESDAY...THEN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A CONTINUED CHANGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             80  69  82  68 /  80  70  70  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  67  80  66 /  80  70  70  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       79  67  80  66 /  70  60  70  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              78  65  77  63 /  70  50  70  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD/MJB



000
FXUS64 KMRX 040754
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
354 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL
PATTERN THIS MORNING AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. NOT AS MUCH SHOWER
ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME FRIDAY AND AMOUNTS ARE LOWER
THAN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT STILL OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. STATIONARY FRONT STILL LIES TO THE NORTH WITH UPPER
TROUGH DRAPED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. WATER VAPOR
AND IR SATELLITE SHOWING SHORT WAVE DIGGING THROUGH KANSAS INTO THE
TROUGH AND THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FIRING FROM OK THROUGH AR
INTO MS AND AL EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AS THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENHANCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. ANOTHER INCH OR MORE OF RAIN COULD FALL WHICH WOULD
AGGRAVATE FLOODING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND
PLATEAU. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED ANOTHER 24 HOURS.
TEMPERATURES AGAIN LIKE FRIDAY MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 70S. TONIGHT
NORTHEAST AREA COULD BE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SO HAVE POPS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THERE.

.LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED. MODELS BRING AN UPPER LOW THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY FOR
LIKELY POPS. MODELS SLOWLY PULL THE LOW OUT OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...NAM GENERALLY WETTER THAN THE GFS...BUT HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS STILL ON TRACK FOR EARLY MONDAY. WEAK RIDGING ON
TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME DRY CONDITIONS
...THOUGH DIURNAL SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE. UNSETTLE
WEATHER CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE REMNANTS OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN WEDNESDAY...THEN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A CONTINUED CHANGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             80  69  82  68 /  80  70  70  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  67  80  66 /  80  70  70  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       79  67  80  66 /  70  60  70  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              78  65  77  63 /  70  50  70  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD/MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 040754
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
354 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL
PATTERN THIS MORNING AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. NOT AS MUCH SHOWER
ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME FRIDAY AND AMOUNTS ARE LOWER
THAN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT STILL OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. STATIONARY FRONT STILL LIES TO THE NORTH WITH UPPER
TROUGH DRAPED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. WATER VAPOR
AND IR SATELLITE SHOWING SHORT WAVE DIGGING THROUGH KANSAS INTO THE
TROUGH AND THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FIRING FROM OK THROUGH AR
INTO MS AND AL EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AS THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENHANCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. ANOTHER INCH OR MORE OF RAIN COULD FALL WHICH WOULD
AGGRAVATE FLOODING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND
PLATEAU. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED ANOTHER 24 HOURS.
TEMPERATURES AGAIN LIKE FRIDAY MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 70S. TONIGHT
NORTHEAST AREA COULD BE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SO HAVE POPS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THERE.

.LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED. MODELS BRING AN UPPER LOW THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY FOR
LIKELY POPS. MODELS SLOWLY PULL THE LOW OUT OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...NAM GENERALLY WETTER THAN THE GFS...BUT HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS STILL ON TRACK FOR EARLY MONDAY. WEAK RIDGING ON
TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME DRY CONDITIONS
...THOUGH DIURNAL SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE. UNSETTLE
WEATHER CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE REMNANTS OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN WEDNESDAY...THEN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A CONTINUED CHANGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             80  69  82  68 /  80  70  70  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  67  80  66 /  80  70  70  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       79  67  80  66 /  70  60  70  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              78  65  77  63 /  70  50  70  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD/MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 040754
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
354 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL
PATTERN THIS MORNING AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. NOT AS MUCH SHOWER
ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME FRIDAY AND AMOUNTS ARE LOWER
THAN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT STILL OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. STATIONARY FRONT STILL LIES TO THE NORTH WITH UPPER
TROUGH DRAPED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. WATER VAPOR
AND IR SATELLITE SHOWING SHORT WAVE DIGGING THROUGH KANSAS INTO THE
TROUGH AND THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FIRING FROM OK THROUGH AR
INTO MS AND AL EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AS THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENHANCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. ANOTHER INCH OR MORE OF RAIN COULD FALL WHICH WOULD
AGGRAVATE FLOODING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND
PLATEAU. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED ANOTHER 24 HOURS.
TEMPERATURES AGAIN LIKE FRIDAY MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 70S. TONIGHT
NORTHEAST AREA COULD BE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SO HAVE POPS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THERE.

.LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED. MODELS BRING AN UPPER LOW THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY FOR
LIKELY POPS. MODELS SLOWLY PULL THE LOW OUT OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...NAM GENERALLY WETTER THAN THE GFS...BUT HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS STILL ON TRACK FOR EARLY MONDAY. WEAK RIDGING ON
TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME DRY CONDITIONS
...THOUGH DIURNAL SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE. UNSETTLE
WEATHER CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE REMNANTS OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN WEDNESDAY...THEN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A CONTINUED CHANGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             80  69  82  68 /  80  70  70  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  67  80  66 /  80  70  70  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       79  67  80  66 /  70  60  70  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              78  65  77  63 /  70  50  70  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD/MJB



000
FXUS64 KMEG 040524
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1224 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
IS MUCH LESS THAN EARLIER TODAY. WHILE SOME ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO NORTH MISSISSIPPI. WILL LOWER POPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD EVENT WELL UNDERWAY OVER THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH NUMEROUS PICTURES AND RAINFALL REPORTS ARRIVING BY
SOCIAL MEDIA IN THE OFFICE. THANK YOU. HEAVIEST ACTIVITY HAS
FALLEN IN A ZONE FROM SOUTHERN MARSHALL THROUGH UNION AND PONTOTOC
COUNTIES IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI...WHERE 7 PLUS INCHES HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW BACKBUILDING OF STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCH RAIN RATES PER HOUR TRAINING OVER THIS
REGION...WITH ONGOING STORMS IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WEST
TENNESSEE.

SHORT TERM THROUGH TOMORROW...HAVE EXTENDED THE FFA TO INCLUDE
THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPSTREAM MVC IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS PIVOTING AROUND
A CLOSED 500MB LOW IN INDIANA...AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT WILL PRODUCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF STORMS...AND AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN...FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TOMORROW. ALREADY AIRMASS IS BECOMING UNSTABLE OVER
SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS JUST AHEAD OF MCV.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM FURTHER EAST AND ROTATE
INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHILE CONVERGENT
BAND FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH TRAINING CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DWINDLE TOMORROW FROM THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES AROUND MIDDAY TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW SHARPENS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE LOW`S BACKSIDE TO SLIDE
OVER THE AREA. HAVE FURTHER REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY
AND LOWERED THEM A DEGREE OR SO FOR TOMORROW.

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAKER NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO TAKE SHAPE STARTING SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CENTER
OPENS AND BEGINS TO SLOWLY FILL TO OUR EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH OVER THE AREA SO RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY...BUT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO...LEADING TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL READINGS FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90.

JAB

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD FROM EAST CENTRAL
AR INTO NORTH MS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AFFECTING KTUP.
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR AREAWIDE...POSSIBLY LIFR IN
SOME LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN MOSTLY VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOWERING
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AREAWIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY
EVENING.

WINDS TONIGHT SW 4-8 KTS. WINDS SATURDAY S-SW 7-9 KTS.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 040524
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1224 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
IS MUCH LESS THAN EARLIER TODAY. WHILE SOME ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO NORTH MISSISSIPPI. WILL LOWER POPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD EVENT WELL UNDERWAY OVER THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH NUMEROUS PICTURES AND RAINFALL REPORTS ARRIVING BY
SOCIAL MEDIA IN THE OFFICE. THANK YOU. HEAVIEST ACTIVITY HAS
FALLEN IN A ZONE FROM SOUTHERN MARSHALL THROUGH UNION AND PONTOTOC
COUNTIES IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI...WHERE 7 PLUS INCHES HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW BACKBUILDING OF STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCH RAIN RATES PER HOUR TRAINING OVER THIS
REGION...WITH ONGOING STORMS IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WEST
TENNESSEE.

SHORT TERM THROUGH TOMORROW...HAVE EXTENDED THE FFA TO INCLUDE
THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPSTREAM MVC IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS PIVOTING AROUND
A CLOSED 500MB LOW IN INDIANA...AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT WILL PRODUCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF STORMS...AND AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN...FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TOMORROW. ALREADY AIRMASS IS BECOMING UNSTABLE OVER
SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS JUST AHEAD OF MCV.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM FURTHER EAST AND ROTATE
INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHILE CONVERGENT
BAND FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH TRAINING CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DWINDLE TOMORROW FROM THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES AROUND MIDDAY TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW SHARPENS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE LOW`S BACKSIDE TO SLIDE
OVER THE AREA. HAVE FURTHER REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY
AND LOWERED THEM A DEGREE OR SO FOR TOMORROW.

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAKER NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO TAKE SHAPE STARTING SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CENTER
OPENS AND BEGINS TO SLOWLY FILL TO OUR EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH OVER THE AREA SO RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY...BUT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO...LEADING TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL READINGS FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90.

JAB

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD FROM EAST CENTRAL
AR INTO NORTH MS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AFFECTING KTUP.
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR AREAWIDE...POSSIBLY LIFR IN
SOME LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN MOSTLY VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOWERING
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AREAWIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY
EVENING.

WINDS TONIGHT SW 4-8 KTS. WINDS SATURDAY S-SW 7-9 KTS.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 040524
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
124 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KENTUCKY WILL
NOT MOVE MUCH OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF SATURDAY. KTRI HAS THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING OFF AND ON AGAIN SHOWERS INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AL AND GA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH NEAR KCHA AND
KTYS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD HELP KEEP LOWER ATMOSPHERE
MIXED ENOUGH WHERE VSBY WILL BE ONLY AFFECTED BY SHOWERS PASSING
OVER TERMINALS. BEST CHANCES FOR KTYS AND KCHA WILL BE DURING THE
EARLY TO MID MORNING AND AROUND MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD



000
FXUS64 KOHX 040439
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1139 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...

SCATTERED CLOUDS TONIGHT HAVE ALLOWED FLIGHT RULES TO BOUNCE
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL DETERIORATION OF CIGS AND
VIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER AND MORE SATURATED. SOME SHOWERS ARE
AROUND MAINLY SOUTH OF ALL THREE TERMINALS. IT IS POSSIBLE BNA AND
CSV SEE A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER OVERNIGHT BUT PROBABILITY IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ACKNOWLEDGEMENT IN THE TAFS. TOMORROW STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN BUT LOOK TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIE BACK SOME ONCE DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. WINDS OVER THE
TAF PERIOD WILL BE OUT OF THE SW/WSW AOB 5 KTS.

REAGAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 826 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

UPDATE...ALL MODELS, INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT HRRR, SHOW
CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF OUR BORDER WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AND
REMAINING MOSTLY OUT OF OUR FA. MEANWHILE, NEW CONVECTION NOW
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN TN IS FORECAST TO EXPAND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF MIDDLE TN BY 09Z, AND THEN WORK
ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD, ONTO THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AFTER
09Z. THUS, BELIEVE CURRENT POP AND WX GRIDS FOR TONIGHT LOOK IN
PRETTY GOOD SHAPE, WITH THE LEAST CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS IN
OUR NWRN COUNTIES.

DON`T SEE MUCH REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST RIGHT
NOW. SO, WILL LET THINGS HUM ALONG AS IS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  81  67  85 /  60  50  40  40
CLARKSVILLE    67  82  66  84 /  50  30  30  30
CROSSVILLE     65  75  63  78 /  80  60  60  60
COLUMBIA       67  80  66  84 /  80  50  50  40
LAWRENCEBURG   67  79  66  83 /  80  60  50  50
WAVERLY        67  80  67  84 /  60  40  40  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

10



000
FXUS64 KOHX 040439
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1139 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...

SCATTERED CLOUDS TONIGHT HAVE ALLOWED FLIGHT RULES TO BOUNCE
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL DETERIORATION OF CIGS AND
VIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER AND MORE SATURATED. SOME SHOWERS ARE
AROUND MAINLY SOUTH OF ALL THREE TERMINALS. IT IS POSSIBLE BNA AND
CSV SEE A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER OVERNIGHT BUT PROBABILITY IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ACKNOWLEDGEMENT IN THE TAFS. TOMORROW STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN BUT LOOK TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIE BACK SOME ONCE DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. WINDS OVER THE
TAF PERIOD WILL BE OUT OF THE SW/WSW AOB 5 KTS.

REAGAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 826 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

UPDATE...ALL MODELS, INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT HRRR, SHOW
CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF OUR BORDER WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AND
REMAINING MOSTLY OUT OF OUR FA. MEANWHILE, NEW CONVECTION NOW
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN TN IS FORECAST TO EXPAND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF MIDDLE TN BY 09Z, AND THEN WORK
ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD, ONTO THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AFTER
09Z. THUS, BELIEVE CURRENT POP AND WX GRIDS FOR TONIGHT LOOK IN
PRETTY GOOD SHAPE, WITH THE LEAST CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS IN
OUR NWRN COUNTIES.

DON`T SEE MUCH REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST RIGHT
NOW. SO, WILL LET THINGS HUM ALONG AS IS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  81  67  85 /  60  50  40  40
CLARKSVILLE    67  82  66  84 /  50  30  30  30
CROSSVILLE     65  75  63  78 /  80  60  60  60
COLUMBIA       67  80  66  84 /  80  50  50  40
LAWRENCEBURG   67  79  66  83 /  80  60  50  50
WAVERLY        67  80  67  84 /  60  40  40  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

10




000
FXUS64 KMEG 040203
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
903 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
IS MUCH LESS THAN EARLIER TODAY. WHILE SOME ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO NORTH MISSISSIPPI. WILL LOWER POPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD EVENT WELL UNDERWAY OVER THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH NUMEROUS PICTURES AND RAINFALL REPORTS ARRIVING BY
SOCIAL MEDIA IN THE OFFICE. THANK YOU. HEAVIEST ACTIVITY HAS
FALLEN IN A ZONE FROM SOUTHERN MARSHALL THROUGH UNION AND PONTOTOC
COUNTIES IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI...WHERE 7 PLUS INCHES HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW BACKBUILDING OF STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCH RAIN RATES PER HOUR TRAINING OVER THIS
REGION...WITH ONGOING STORMS IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WEST
TENNESSEE.

SHORT TERM THROUGH TOMORROW...HAVE EXTENDED THE FFA TO INCLUDE
THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPSTREAM MVC IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS PIVOTING AROUND
A CLOSED 500MB LOW IN INDIANA...AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT WILL PRODUCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF STORMS...AND AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN...FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TOMORROW. ALREADY AIRMASS IS BECOMING UNSTABLE OVER
SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS JUST AHEAD OF MCV.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM FURTHER EAST AND ROTATE
INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHILE CONVERGENT
BAND FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH TRAINING CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DWINDLE TOMORROW FROM THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES AROUND MIDDAY TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW SHARPENS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE LOW`S BACKSIDE TO SLIDE
OVER THE AREA. HAVE FURTHER REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY
AND LOWERED THEM A DEGREE OR SO FOR TOMORROW.

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAKER NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO TAKE SHAPE STARTING SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CENTER
OPENS AND BEGINS TO SLOWLY FILL TO OUR EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH OVER THE AREA SO RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY...BUT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO...LEADING TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL READINGS FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (04/00Z-05/00Z)

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS
MAINLY FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AFFECTING KTUP. OTHERWISE VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS AFTER 04/06Z
LOWERING TO IFR...POSSIBLY LIFR IN SOME LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MOSTLY VFR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOWERING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AREAWIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TONIGHT SW 4-7 KTS. WINDS SATURDAY S-SW 7-9 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 040203
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
903 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
IS MUCH LESS THAN EARLIER TODAY. WHILE SOME ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO NORTH MISSISSIPPI. WILL LOWER POPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD EVENT WELL UNDERWAY OVER THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH NUMEROUS PICTURES AND RAINFALL REPORTS ARRIVING BY
SOCIAL MEDIA IN THE OFFICE. THANK YOU. HEAVIEST ACTIVITY HAS
FALLEN IN A ZONE FROM SOUTHERN MARSHALL THROUGH UNION AND PONTOTOC
COUNTIES IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI...WHERE 7 PLUS INCHES HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW BACKBUILDING OF STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCH RAIN RATES PER HOUR TRAINING OVER THIS
REGION...WITH ONGOING STORMS IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WEST
TENNESSEE.

SHORT TERM THROUGH TOMORROW...HAVE EXTENDED THE FFA TO INCLUDE
THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPSTREAM MVC IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS PIVOTING AROUND
A CLOSED 500MB LOW IN INDIANA...AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT WILL PRODUCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF STORMS...AND AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN...FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TOMORROW. ALREADY AIRMASS IS BECOMING UNSTABLE OVER
SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS JUST AHEAD OF MCV.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM FURTHER EAST AND ROTATE
INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHILE CONVERGENT
BAND FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH TRAINING CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DWINDLE TOMORROW FROM THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES AROUND MIDDAY TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW SHARPENS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE LOW`S BACKSIDE TO SLIDE
OVER THE AREA. HAVE FURTHER REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY
AND LOWERED THEM A DEGREE OR SO FOR TOMORROW.

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAKER NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO TAKE SHAPE STARTING SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CENTER
OPENS AND BEGINS TO SLOWLY FILL TO OUR EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH OVER THE AREA SO RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY...BUT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO...LEADING TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL READINGS FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (04/00Z-05/00Z)

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS
MAINLY FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AFFECTING KTUP. OTHERWISE VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS AFTER 04/06Z
LOWERING TO IFR...POSSIBLY LIFR IN SOME LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MOSTLY VFR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOWERING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AREAWIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TONIGHT SW 4-7 KTS. WINDS SATURDAY S-SW 7-9 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 040126
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
826 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...ALL MODELS, INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT HRRR, SHOW
CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF OUR BORDER WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AND
REMAINING MOSTLY OUT OF OUR FA. MEANWHILE, NEW CONVECTION NOW
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN TN IS FORECAST TO EXPAND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THRIDS OF MIDDLE TN BY 09Z, AND THEN WORK
ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD, ONTO THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AFTER
09Z. THUS, BELIEVE CURRENT POP AND WX GRIDS FOR TONIGHT LOOK IN
PRETTY GOOD SHAPE, WITH THE LEAST CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS IN
OUR NWRN COUNTIES.

DON`T SEE MUCH REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST RIGHT
NOW. SO, WILL LET THINGS HUM ALONG AS IS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  81  67  85 /  60  50  40  40
CLARKSVILLE    67  82  66  84 /  50  30  30  30
CROSSVILLE     65  75  63  78 /  80  60  60  60
COLUMBIA       67  80  66  84 /  80  50  50  40
LAWRENCEBURG   67  79  66  83 /  80  60  50  50
WAVERLY        67  80  67  84 /  60  40  40  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KOHX 040126
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
826 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...ALL MODELS, INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT HRRR, SHOW
CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF OUR BORDER WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AND
REMAINING MOSTLY OUT OF OUR FA. MEANWHILE, NEW CONVECTION NOW
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN TN IS FORECAST TO EXPAND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THRIDS OF MIDDLE TN BY 09Z, AND THEN WORK
ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD, ONTO THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AFTER
09Z. THUS, BELIEVE CURRENT POP AND WX GRIDS FOR TONIGHT LOOK IN
PRETTY GOOD SHAPE, WITH THE LEAST CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS IN
OUR NWRN COUNTIES.

DON`T SEE MUCH REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST RIGHT
NOW. SO, WILL LET THINGS HUM ALONG AS IS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  81  67  85 /  60  50  40  40
CLARKSVILLE    67  82  66  84 /  50  30  30  30
CROSSVILLE     65  75  63  78 /  80  60  60  60
COLUMBIA       67  80  66  84 /  80  50  50  40
LAWRENCEBURG   67  79  66  83 /  80  60  50  50
WAVERLY        67  80  67  84 /  60  40  40  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KOHX 040126
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
826 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...ALL MODELS, INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT HRRR, SHOW
CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF OUR BORDER WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AND
REMAINING MOSTLY OUT OF OUR FA. MEANWHILE, NEW CONVECTION NOW
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN TN IS FORECAST TO EXPAND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THRIDS OF MIDDLE TN BY 09Z, AND THEN WORK
ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD, ONTO THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AFTER
09Z. THUS, BELIEVE CURRENT POP AND WX GRIDS FOR TONIGHT LOOK IN
PRETTY GOOD SHAPE, WITH THE LEAST CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS IN
OUR NWRN COUNTIES.

DON`T SEE MUCH REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST RIGHT
NOW. SO, WILL LET THINGS HUM ALONG AS IS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  81  67  85 /  60  50  40  40
CLARKSVILLE    67  82  66  84 /  50  30  30  30
CROSSVILLE     65  75  63  78 /  80  60  60  60
COLUMBIA       67  80  66  84 /  80  50  50  40
LAWRENCEBURG   67  79  66  83 /  80  60  50  50
WAVERLY        67  80  67  84 /  60  40  40  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

19



000
FXUS64 KMRX 040000
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EVENING TRENDS SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL TN VALLEY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS KENTUCKY WILL
MAKE LITTLE SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
OF DRY WEATHER GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-40. OVERNIGHT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TWEAKED THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 2AM.
ADDITIONALLY...KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE THUNDER ACROSS SW VA AND ONLY
MENTION ISOLATED EVERYWHERE ELSE. WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH AND
SEND UPDATED WORDING CLOSER TO 11PM EDT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  79  68  81 /  80  80  60  70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  78  67  80 /  80  80  60  70
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  79  67  80 /  80  80  60  70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              66  77  65  78 /  80  80  50  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

AC



000
FXUS64 KMRX 040000
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EVENING TRENDS SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL TN VALLEY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS KENTUCKY WILL
MAKE LITTLE SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
OF DRY WEATHER GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-40. OVERNIGHT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TWEAKED THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 2AM.
ADDITIONALLY...KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE THUNDER ACROSS SW VA AND ONLY
MENTION ISOLATED EVERYWHERE ELSE. WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH AND
SEND UPDATED WORDING CLOSER TO 11PM EDT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  79  68  81 /  80  80  60  70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  78  67  80 /  80  80  60  70
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  79  67  80 /  80  80  60  70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              66  77  65  78 /  80  80  50  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

AC




000
FXUS64 KMEG 032345 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
645 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 216 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD EVENT WELL UNDERWAY OVER THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH NUMEROUS PICTURES AND RAINFALL REPORTS ARRIVING BY
SOCIAL MEDIA IN THE OFFICE. THANK YOU. HEAVIEST ACTIVITY HAS
FALLEN IN A ZONE FROM SOUTHERN MARSHALL THROUGH UNION AND PONTOTOC
COUNTIES IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI...WHERE 7 PLUS INCHES HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW BACKBUILDING OF STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCH RAIN RATES PER HOUR TRAINING OVER THIS
REGION...WITH ONGOING STORMS IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WEST
TENNESSEE.

SHORT TERM THROUGH TOMORROW...HAVE EXTENDED THE FFA TO INCLUDE
THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPSTREAM MVC IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS PIVOTING AROUND
A CLOSED 500MB LOW IN INDIANA...AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT WILL PRODUCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF STORMS...AND AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN...FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TOMORROW. ALREADY AIRMASS IS BECOMING UNSTABLE OVER
SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS JUST AHEAD OF MCV.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM FURTHER EAST AND ROTATE
INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHILE CONVERGENT
BAND FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH TRAINING CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DWINDLE TOMORROW FROM THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES AROUND MIDDAY TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW SHARPENS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE LOW`S BACKSIDE TO SLIDE
OVER THE AREA. HAVE FURTHER REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY
AND LOWERED THEM A DEGREE OR SO FOR TOMORROW.

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAKER NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO TAKE SHAPE STARTING SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CENTER
OPENS AND BEGINS TO SLOWLY FILL TO OUR EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH OVER THE AREA SO RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY...BUT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO...LEADING TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL READINGS FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (04/00Z-05/00Z)

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS
MAINLY FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AFFECTING KTUP. OTHERWISE VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS AFTER 04/06Z
LOWERING TO IFR...POSSIBLY LIFR IN SOME LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MOSTLY VFR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOWERING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AREAWIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TONIGHT SW 4-7 KTS. WINDS SATURDAY S-SW 7-9 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 032335
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
635 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...

ALL THREE TERMINALS ARE RAIN FREE ATTM. SOME ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY
SAGGING SOUTH TOWARD CKV BUT IS WEAKENING. ADDRESSED THIS WITH A
SHRA TEMPO GROUP AT CKV AND VCSH AT BNA. WINDS MAY CALM A LITTLE
MORE THAN LAST NIGHT AND WITH SUCH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE FOG MAY
DEVELOP AT ALL THREE SITES. IFR CEILING WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE
OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK A LITTLE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. CSV LOOKS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES.
WENT WITH VCTS RIGHT NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS FOR TOMORROW. WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE LIGHTER OUT OF THE SW
AROUND 5 KTS.

REAGAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  81  67  85 /  60  50  40  40
CLARKSVILLE    67  82  66  84 /  50  30  30  30
CROSSVILLE     65  75  63  78 /  80  60  60  60
COLUMBIA       67  80  66  84 /  80  50  50  40
LAWRENCEBURG   67  79  66  83 /  80  60  50  50
WAVERLY        67  80  67  84 /  60  40  40  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

10



000
FXUS64 KOHX 032335
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
635 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...

ALL THREE TERMINALS ARE RAIN FREE ATTM. SOME ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY
SAGGING SOUTH TOWARD CKV BUT IS WEAKENING. ADDRESSED THIS WITH A
SHRA TEMPO GROUP AT CKV AND VCSH AT BNA. WINDS MAY CALM A LITTLE
MORE THAN LAST NIGHT AND WITH SUCH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE FOG MAY
DEVELOP AT ALL THREE SITES. IFR CEILING WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE
OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK A LITTLE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. CSV LOOKS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES.
WENT WITH VCTS RIGHT NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS FOR TOMORROW. WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE LIGHTER OUT OF THE SW
AROUND 5 KTS.

REAGAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  81  67  85 /  60  50  40  40
CLARKSVILLE    67  82  66  84 /  50  30  30  30
CROSSVILLE     65  75  63  78 /  80  60  60  60
COLUMBIA       67  80  66  84 /  80  50  50  40
LAWRENCEBURG   67  79  66  83 /  80  60  50  50
WAVERLY        67  80  67  84 /  60  40  40  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

10




000
FXUS64 KMRX 032332
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
732 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KENTUCKY WILL STAY PUT
OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. KTRI HAS THE BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING OFF AND ON AGAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA WILL LIKELY INHIBIT SHOWER ACTIVITY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
KCHA AND KTYS. CONFIDENCE LOW FOR CIGS AND VSBY OVERNIGHT. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD HELP KEEP LOWER ATMOSPHERE STIRRED ENOUGH
WHERE VSBY WILL BE AFFECTED BY SHOWERS PASSING OVER TERMINALS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

AC




000
FXUS64 KMRX 032332
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
732 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KENTUCKY WILL STAY PUT
OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. KTRI HAS THE BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING OFF AND ON AGAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA WILL LIKELY INHIBIT SHOWER ACTIVITY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
KCHA AND KTYS. CONFIDENCE LOW FOR CIGS AND VSBY OVERNIGHT. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD HELP KEEP LOWER ATMOSPHERE STIRRED ENOUGH
WHERE VSBY WILL BE AFFECTED BY SHOWERS PASSING OVER TERMINALS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

AC



000
FXUS64 KOHX 031951
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST...WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEK. IN THE SHORT TERM...POTENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE
LARGER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PWAT VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES PER MODEL SOUNDINGS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...AND PEAKING DURING THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING. EVEN TODAY SMALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED HAVE PUT DOWN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN IN A SMALL
TIMEFRAME. WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH OUT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINS HIGHEST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.

AS FOR THE 4TH OF JULY EVENING FORECAST...MODELS HAVE BEEN ON THE
INCREASE JUST A BIT PLACING PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER THE CWA.
CURRENTLY...PRECIP SEEMS MORE LIKELY IN AREAS SOUTH OF I40. SHORT
TERM MODELS DO DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON QPF PLACEMENT...BUT THE NAM
WANTS TO PLACE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN ZONES. WENT WITH MORE OF
A CONSENSUS SINCE IT APPEARS ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY BE SCATTERED
OVER THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY OVERNIGHT. HOPEFULLY MODELS TREND
BACK A BIT AND HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING
FESTIVITIES. CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THAT TIMEFRAME ARE ROUGHLY
25 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES UP TO 60 PERCENT IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS WILL
KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE CWA WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL IN
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES ATTM. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE JUST OFF TO
THE WEST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL HELP PUSH THE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP POPS A BIT
LOWER TO SCHC/CHC ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER HIGH
PLAINS TROUGH WILL ERODE THE RIDGE...AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND EASTERN CONUS. COMBINED WITH MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACTIVITY...POPS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK. BY THIS POINT IN THE
FORECAST...THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS.
THE GFS IS LAGGING BEHIND THE ECMWF PLACING A TROUGH OVER THE
REGION. THE ECMWF HAS THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE EAST COAST WHILE THE
GFS HAS IT FURTHER WEST IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE UNCERTAINTY
HAS DROPPED POPS JUST A BIT FRIDAY...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      84  68  81  67 /  70  60  50  40
CLARKSVILLE    82  67  82  66 /  60  50  30  30
CROSSVILLE     77  65  75  63 /  70  80  60  60
COLUMBIA       82  67  80  66 /  80  80  50  50
LAWRENCEBURG   79  67  79  66 /  80  80  60  50
WAVERLY        81  67  80  67 /  70  60  40  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

BARNWELL



000
FXUS64 KOHX 031951
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST...WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEK. IN THE SHORT TERM...POTENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE
LARGER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PWAT VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES PER MODEL SOUNDINGS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...AND PEAKING DURING THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING. EVEN TODAY SMALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED HAVE PUT DOWN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN IN A SMALL
TIMEFRAME. WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH OUT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINS HIGHEST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.

AS FOR THE 4TH OF JULY EVENING FORECAST...MODELS HAVE BEEN ON THE
INCREASE JUST A BIT PLACING PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER THE CWA.
CURRENTLY...PRECIP SEEMS MORE LIKELY IN AREAS SOUTH OF I40. SHORT
TERM MODELS DO DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON QPF PLACEMENT...BUT THE NAM
WANTS TO PLACE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN ZONES. WENT WITH MORE OF
A CONSENSUS SINCE IT APPEARS ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY BE SCATTERED
OVER THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY OVERNIGHT. HOPEFULLY MODELS TREND
BACK A BIT AND HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING
FESTIVITIES. CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THAT TIMEFRAME ARE ROUGHLY
25 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES UP TO 60 PERCENT IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS WILL
KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE CWA WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL IN
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES ATTM. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE JUST OFF TO
THE WEST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL HELP PUSH THE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP POPS A BIT
LOWER TO SCHC/CHC ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER HIGH
PLAINS TROUGH WILL ERODE THE RIDGE...AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND EASTERN CONUS. COMBINED WITH MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACTIVITY...POPS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK. BY THIS POINT IN THE
FORECAST...THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS.
THE GFS IS LAGGING BEHIND THE ECMWF PLACING A TROUGH OVER THE
REGION. THE ECMWF HAS THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE EAST COAST WHILE THE
GFS HAS IT FURTHER WEST IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE UNCERTAINTY
HAS DROPPED POPS JUST A BIT FRIDAY...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      84  68  81  67 /  70  60  50  40
CLARKSVILLE    82  67  82  66 /  60  50  30  30
CROSSVILLE     77  65  75  63 /  70  80  60  60
COLUMBIA       82  67  80  66 /  80  80  50  50
LAWRENCEBURG   79  67  79  66 /  80  80  60  50
WAVERLY        81  67  80  67 /  70  60  40  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

BARNWELL



000
FXUS64 KOHX 031951
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST...WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEK. IN THE SHORT TERM...POTENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE
LARGER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PWAT VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES PER MODEL SOUNDINGS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...AND PEAKING DURING THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING. EVEN TODAY SMALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED HAVE PUT DOWN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN IN A SMALL
TIMEFRAME. WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH OUT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINS HIGHEST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.

AS FOR THE 4TH OF JULY EVENING FORECAST...MODELS HAVE BEEN ON THE
INCREASE JUST A BIT PLACING PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER THE CWA.
CURRENTLY...PRECIP SEEMS MORE LIKELY IN AREAS SOUTH OF I40. SHORT
TERM MODELS DO DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON QPF PLACEMENT...BUT THE NAM
WANTS TO PLACE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN ZONES. WENT WITH MORE OF
A CONSENSUS SINCE IT APPEARS ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY BE SCATTERED
OVER THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY OVERNIGHT. HOPEFULLY MODELS TREND
BACK A BIT AND HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING
FESTIVITIES. CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THAT TIMEFRAME ARE ROUGHLY
25 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES UP TO 60 PERCENT IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS WILL
KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE CWA WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL IN
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES ATTM. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE JUST OFF TO
THE WEST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL HELP PUSH THE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP POPS A BIT
LOWER TO SCHC/CHC ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER HIGH
PLAINS TROUGH WILL ERODE THE RIDGE...AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND EASTERN CONUS. COMBINED WITH MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACTIVITY...POPS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK. BY THIS POINT IN THE
FORECAST...THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS.
THE GFS IS LAGGING BEHIND THE ECMWF PLACING A TROUGH OVER THE
REGION. THE ECMWF HAS THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE EAST COAST WHILE THE
GFS HAS IT FURTHER WEST IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE UNCERTAINTY
HAS DROPPED POPS JUST A BIT FRIDAY...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      84  68  81  67 /  70  60  50  40
CLARKSVILLE    82  67  82  66 /  60  50  30  30
CROSSVILLE     77  65  75  63 /  70  80  60  60
COLUMBIA       82  67  80  66 /  80  80  50  50
LAWRENCEBURG   79  67  79  66 /  80  80  60  50
WAVERLY        81  67  80  67 /  70  60  40  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

BARNWELL



000
FXUS64 KOHX 031951
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST...WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEK. IN THE SHORT TERM...POTENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE
LARGER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PWAT VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES PER MODEL SOUNDINGS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...AND PEAKING DURING THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING. EVEN TODAY SMALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED HAVE PUT DOWN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN IN A SMALL
TIMEFRAME. WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH OUT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINS HIGHEST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.

AS FOR THE 4TH OF JULY EVENING FORECAST...MODELS HAVE BEEN ON THE
INCREASE JUST A BIT PLACING PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER THE CWA.
CURRENTLY...PRECIP SEEMS MORE LIKELY IN AREAS SOUTH OF I40. SHORT
TERM MODELS DO DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON QPF PLACEMENT...BUT THE NAM
WANTS TO PLACE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN ZONES. WENT WITH MORE OF
A CONSENSUS SINCE IT APPEARS ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY BE SCATTERED
OVER THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY OVERNIGHT. HOPEFULLY MODELS TREND
BACK A BIT AND HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING
FESTIVITIES. CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THAT TIMEFRAME ARE ROUGHLY
25 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES UP TO 60 PERCENT IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS WILL
KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE CWA WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL IN
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES ATTM. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE JUST OFF TO
THE WEST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL HELP PUSH THE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP POPS A BIT
LOWER TO SCHC/CHC ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER HIGH
PLAINS TROUGH WILL ERODE THE RIDGE...AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND EASTERN CONUS. COMBINED WITH MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACTIVITY...POPS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK. BY THIS POINT IN THE
FORECAST...THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS.
THE GFS IS LAGGING BEHIND THE ECMWF PLACING A TROUGH OVER THE
REGION. THE ECMWF HAS THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE EAST COAST WHILE THE
GFS HAS IT FURTHER WEST IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE UNCERTAINTY
HAS DROPPED POPS JUST A BIT FRIDAY...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      84  68  81  67 /  70  60  50  40
CLARKSVILLE    82  67  82  66 /  60  50  30  30
CROSSVILLE     77  65  75  63 /  70  80  60  60
COLUMBIA       82  67  80  66 /  80  80  50  50
LAWRENCEBURG   79  67  79  66 /  80  80  60  50
WAVERLY        81  67  80  67 /  70  60  40  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

BARNWELL



000
FXUS64 KMEG 031916
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
216 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD EVENT WELL UNDERWAY OVER THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH NUMEROUS PICTURES AND RAINFALL REPORTS ARRIVING
BY SOCIAL MEDIA IN THE OFFICE. THANK YOU. HEAVIEST ACTIVITY HAS
FALLEN IN A ZONE FROM SOUTHERN MARSHALL THROUGH UNION AND PONTOTOC
COUNTIES IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI...WHERE 7 PLUS INCHES HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW BACKBUILDING OF STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCH RAIN RATES PER HOUR TRAINING OVER THIS
REGION...WITH ONGOING STORMS IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WEST
TENNESSEE.

SHORT TERM THROUGH TOMORROW...HAVE EXTENDED THE FFA TO INCLUDE
THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPSTREAM MVC IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS PIVOTING AROUND
A CLOSED 500MB LOW IN INDIANA...AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT WILL PRODUCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF STORMS...AND AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN...FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TOMORROW. ALREADY AIRMASS IS BECOMING UNSTABLE OVER
SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS JUST AHEAD OF MCV.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM FURTHER EAST AND ROTATE
INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHILE CONVERGENT
BAND FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH TRAINING CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DWINDLE TOMORROW FROM THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES AROUND MIDDAY TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW SHARPENS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE LOW`S BACKSIDE TO SLIDE
OVER THE AREA. HAVE FURTHER REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY
AND LOWERED THEM A DEGREE OR SO FOR TOMORROW.

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAKER NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO TAKE SHAPE STARTING SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CENTER
OPENS AND BEGINS TO SLOWLY FILL TO OUR EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH OVER THE AREA SO RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY...BUT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO...LEADING TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL READINGS FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VERY ACTIVE TAF PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS...AND POSSIBLY BRIEF LIFR VSBY. LATER TONIGHT OUTSIDE
OF STORMS STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM WITH BORDERLINE LIFR/IFR
CIGS. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IMPROVEMENT WITH CONDITIONS BEFORE
04/18Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH
POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS IN T-STORMS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SWING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT JBR LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 031916
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
216 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD EVENT WELL UNDERWAY OVER THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH NUMEROUS PICTURES AND RAINFALL REPORTS ARRIVING
BY SOCIAL MEDIA IN THE OFFICE. THANK YOU. HEAVIEST ACTIVITY HAS
FALLEN IN A ZONE FROM SOUTHERN MARSHALL THROUGH UNION AND PONTOTOC
COUNTIES IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI...WHERE 7 PLUS INCHES HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW BACKBUILDING OF STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCH RAIN RATES PER HOUR TRAINING OVER THIS
REGION...WITH ONGOING STORMS IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WEST
TENNESSEE.

SHORT TERM THROUGH TOMORROW...HAVE EXTENDED THE FFA TO INCLUDE
THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPSTREAM MVC IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS PIVOTING AROUND
A CLOSED 500MB LOW IN INDIANA...AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT WILL PRODUCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF STORMS...AND AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN...FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TOMORROW. ALREADY AIRMASS IS BECOMING UNSTABLE OVER
SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS JUST AHEAD OF MCV.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM FURTHER EAST AND ROTATE
INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHILE CONVERGENT
BAND FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH TRAINING CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DWINDLE TOMORROW FROM THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES AROUND MIDDAY TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW SHARPENS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE LOW`S BACKSIDE TO SLIDE
OVER THE AREA. HAVE FURTHER REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY
AND LOWERED THEM A DEGREE OR SO FOR TOMORROW.

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAKER NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO TAKE SHAPE STARTING SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CENTER
OPENS AND BEGINS TO SLOWLY FILL TO OUR EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH OVER THE AREA SO RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY...BUT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO...LEADING TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL READINGS FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VERY ACTIVE TAF PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS...AND POSSIBLY BRIEF LIFR VSBY. LATER TONIGHT OUTSIDE
OF STORMS STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM WITH BORDERLINE LIFR/IFR
CIGS. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IMPROVEMENT WITH CONDITIONS BEFORE
04/18Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH
POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS IN T-STORMS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SWING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT JBR LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 031916
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
216 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD EVENT WELL UNDERWAY OVER THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH NUMEROUS PICTURES AND RAINFALL REPORTS ARRIVING
BY SOCIAL MEDIA IN THE OFFICE. THANK YOU. HEAVIEST ACTIVITY HAS
FALLEN IN A ZONE FROM SOUTHERN MARSHALL THROUGH UNION AND PONTOTOC
COUNTIES IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI...WHERE 7 PLUS INCHES HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW BACKBUILDING OF STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCH RAIN RATES PER HOUR TRAINING OVER THIS
REGION...WITH ONGOING STORMS IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WEST
TENNESSEE.

SHORT TERM THROUGH TOMORROW...HAVE EXTENDED THE FFA TO INCLUDE
THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPSTREAM MVC IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS PIVOTING AROUND
A CLOSED 500MB LOW IN INDIANA...AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT WILL PRODUCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF STORMS...AND AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN...FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TOMORROW. ALREADY AIRMASS IS BECOMING UNSTABLE OVER
SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS JUST AHEAD OF MCV.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM FURTHER EAST AND ROTATE
INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHILE CONVERGENT
BAND FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH TRAINING CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DWINDLE TOMORROW FROM THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES AROUND MIDDAY TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW SHARPENS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE LOW`S BACKSIDE TO SLIDE
OVER THE AREA. HAVE FURTHER REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY
AND LOWERED THEM A DEGREE OR SO FOR TOMORROW.

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAKER NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO TAKE SHAPE STARTING SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CENTER
OPENS AND BEGINS TO SLOWLY FILL TO OUR EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH OVER THE AREA SO RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY...BUT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO...LEADING TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL READINGS FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VERY ACTIVE TAF PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS...AND POSSIBLY BRIEF LIFR VSBY. LATER TONIGHT OUTSIDE
OF STORMS STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM WITH BORDERLINE LIFR/IFR
CIGS. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IMPROVEMENT WITH CONDITIONS BEFORE
04/18Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH
POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS IN T-STORMS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SWING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT JBR LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 031916
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
216 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD EVENT WELL UNDERWAY OVER THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH NUMEROUS PICTURES AND RAINFALL REPORTS ARRIVING
BY SOCIAL MEDIA IN THE OFFICE. THANK YOU. HEAVIEST ACTIVITY HAS
FALLEN IN A ZONE FROM SOUTHERN MARSHALL THROUGH UNION AND PONTOTOC
COUNTIES IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI...WHERE 7 PLUS INCHES HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW BACKBUILDING OF STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCH RAIN RATES PER HOUR TRAINING OVER THIS
REGION...WITH ONGOING STORMS IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WEST
TENNESSEE.

SHORT TERM THROUGH TOMORROW...HAVE EXTENDED THE FFA TO INCLUDE
THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPSTREAM MVC IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS PIVOTING AROUND
A CLOSED 500MB LOW IN INDIANA...AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT WILL PRODUCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF STORMS...AND AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN...FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TOMORROW. ALREADY AIRMASS IS BECOMING UNSTABLE OVER
SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS JUST AHEAD OF MCV.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM FURTHER EAST AND ROTATE
INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHILE CONVERGENT
BAND FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH TRAINING CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DWINDLE TOMORROW FROM THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES AROUND MIDDAY TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW SHARPENS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE LOW`S BACKSIDE TO SLIDE
OVER THE AREA. HAVE FURTHER REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY
AND LOWERED THEM A DEGREE OR SO FOR TOMORROW.

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAKER NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO TAKE SHAPE STARTING SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CENTER
OPENS AND BEGINS TO SLOWLY FILL TO OUR EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH OVER THE AREA SO RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY...BUT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO...LEADING TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL READINGS FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VERY ACTIVE TAF PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS...AND POSSIBLY BRIEF LIFR VSBY. LATER TONIGHT OUTSIDE
OF STORMS STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM WITH BORDERLINE LIFR/IFR
CIGS. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IMPROVEMENT WITH CONDITIONS BEFORE
04/18Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH
POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS IN T-STORMS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SWING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT JBR LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 031916
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
216 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD EVENT WELL UNDERWAY OVER THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH NUMEROUS PICTURES AND RAINFALL REPORTS ARRIVING
BY SOCIAL MEDIA IN THE OFFICE. THANK YOU. HEAVIEST ACTIVITY HAS
FALLEN IN A ZONE FROM SOUTHERN MARSHALL THROUGH UNION AND PONTOTOC
COUNTIES IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI...WHERE 7 PLUS INCHES HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW BACKBUILDING OF STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCH RAIN RATES PER HOUR TRAINING OVER THIS
REGION...WITH ONGOING STORMS IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WEST
TENNESSEE.

SHORT TERM THROUGH TOMORROW...HAVE EXTENDED THE FFA TO INCLUDE
THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPSTREAM MVC IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS PIVOTING AROUND
A CLOSED 500MB LOW IN INDIANA...AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT WILL PRODUCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF STORMS...AND AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN...FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TOMORROW. ALREADY AIRMASS IS BECOMING UNSTABLE OVER
SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS JUST AHEAD OF MCV.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM FURTHER EAST AND ROTATE
INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHILE CONVERGENT
BAND FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH TRAINING CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DWINDLE TOMORROW FROM THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES AROUND MIDDAY TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW SHARPENS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE LOW`S BACKSIDE TO SLIDE
OVER THE AREA. HAVE FURTHER REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY
AND LOWERED THEM A DEGREE OR SO FOR TOMORROW.

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAKER NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO TAKE SHAPE STARTING SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CENTER
OPENS AND BEGINS TO SLOWLY FILL TO OUR EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH OVER THE AREA SO RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY...BUT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO...LEADING TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL READINGS FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VERY ACTIVE TAF PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS...AND POSSIBLY BRIEF LIFR VSBY. LATER TONIGHT OUTSIDE
OF STORMS STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM WITH BORDERLINE LIFR/IFR
CIGS. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IMPROVEMENT WITH CONDITIONS BEFORE
04/18Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH
POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS IN T-STORMS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SWING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT JBR LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 031916
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
216 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD EVENT WELL UNDERWAY OVER THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH NUMEROUS PICTURES AND RAINFALL REPORTS ARRIVING
BY SOCIAL MEDIA IN THE OFFICE. THANK YOU. HEAVIEST ACTIVITY HAS
FALLEN IN A ZONE FROM SOUTHERN MARSHALL THROUGH UNION AND PONTOTOC
COUNTIES IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI...WHERE 7 PLUS INCHES HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW BACKBUILDING OF STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCH RAIN RATES PER HOUR TRAINING OVER THIS
REGION...WITH ONGOING STORMS IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WEST
TENNESSEE.

SHORT TERM THROUGH TOMORROW...HAVE EXTENDED THE FFA TO INCLUDE
THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPSTREAM MVC IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS PIVOTING AROUND
A CLOSED 500MB LOW IN INDIANA...AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT WILL PRODUCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF STORMS...AND AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN...FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TOMORROW. ALREADY AIRMASS IS BECOMING UNSTABLE OVER
SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS JUST AHEAD OF MCV.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM FURTHER EAST AND ROTATE
INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHILE CONVERGENT
BAND FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH TRAINING CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DWINDLE TOMORROW FROM THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES AROUND MIDDAY TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW SHARPENS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE LOW`S BACKSIDE TO SLIDE
OVER THE AREA. HAVE FURTHER REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY
AND LOWERED THEM A DEGREE OR SO FOR TOMORROW.

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAKER NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO TAKE SHAPE STARTING SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CENTER
OPENS AND BEGINS TO SLOWLY FILL TO OUR EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH OVER THE AREA SO RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY...BUT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO...LEADING TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL READINGS FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VERY ACTIVE TAF PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS...AND POSSIBLY BRIEF LIFR VSBY. LATER TONIGHT OUTSIDE
OF STORMS STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM WITH BORDERLINE LIFR/IFR
CIGS. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IMPROVEMENT WITH CONDITIONS BEFORE
04/18Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH
POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS IN T-STORMS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SWING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT JBR LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 031849
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
249 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE DETAILS OF THE CONVECTION...BUT THEY DO
AGREE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY.  THE LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LIMITING THUNDER...AND
THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE GIVEN THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...SO WILL CARRY
JUST CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH THE CATEGORICAL SHOWERS.  WILL ALLOW THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE AS IS FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...EXTENDED CONTINUES
TO LOOK PRETTY WET...WITH TUESDAY LOOKING THE DRIEST.

AS WITH YESTERDAYS LONG TERM FORECAST...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
THERE IS STILL A BIT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW
A MORE DEVELOPED AND WETTER SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER.
HOWEVER...THE GFS DOES RESEMBLE THE NAM A LITTLE MORE TODAY THAN IT
DID YESTERDAY. SO WILL STILL TREND TOWARD THE WETTER NAM SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME. THE NAM ITSELF IS EVEN A LITTLE DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY.
NOW THE NAM LINGERS THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER OUR AREA INTO MONDAY
WHILE PREVIOUSLY IT HAD MONDAY DRIER. SO PRECIP CHANCES LOOK GREATER
NOW ON MONDAY INSTEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY DIURNAL LOOK.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRIER THANKFULLY...ALBEIT
BRIEF. DUE TO WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS OUR CWA...TUESDAY
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED IN TERMS OF BEING DRIER
AND SEEING SOME SUNSHINE. WILL STILL LEAVE LOW END CHANCE POPS IN
FOR TUESDAY DUE TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION CHANCES. BY WEDNESDAY PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN DUE TO AN INCOMING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM. THESE
PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY AS A FEW MORE IMPULSES MOVE
ACROSS A NOW ZONAL FLOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  79  68  81 /  80  80  60  70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  78  67  80 /  80  80  60  70
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  79  67  80 /  80  80  60  70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              66  77  65  78 /  80  80  50  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

LW/SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 031849
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
249 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE DETAILS OF THE CONVECTION...BUT THEY DO
AGREE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY.  THE LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LIMITING THUNDER...AND
THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE GIVEN THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...SO WILL CARRY
JUST CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH THE CATEGORICAL SHOWERS.  WILL ALLOW THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE AS IS FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...EXTENDED CONTINUES
TO LOOK PRETTY WET...WITH TUESDAY LOOKING THE DRIEST.

AS WITH YESTERDAYS LONG TERM FORECAST...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
THERE IS STILL A BIT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW
A MORE DEVELOPED AND WETTER SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER.
HOWEVER...THE GFS DOES RESEMBLE THE NAM A LITTLE MORE TODAY THAN IT
DID YESTERDAY. SO WILL STILL TREND TOWARD THE WETTER NAM SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME. THE NAM ITSELF IS EVEN A LITTLE DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY.
NOW THE NAM LINGERS THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER OUR AREA INTO MONDAY
WHILE PREVIOUSLY IT HAD MONDAY DRIER. SO PRECIP CHANCES LOOK GREATER
NOW ON MONDAY INSTEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY DIURNAL LOOK.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRIER THANKFULLY...ALBEIT
BRIEF. DUE TO WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS OUR CWA...TUESDAY
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED IN TERMS OF BEING DRIER
AND SEEING SOME SUNSHINE. WILL STILL LEAVE LOW END CHANCE POPS IN
FOR TUESDAY DUE TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION CHANCES. BY WEDNESDAY PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN DUE TO AN INCOMING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM. THESE
PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY AS A FEW MORE IMPULSES MOVE
ACROSS A NOW ZONAL FLOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  79  68  81 /  80  80  60  70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  78  67  80 /  80  80  60  70
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  79  67  80 /  80  80  60  70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              66  77  65  78 /  80  80  50  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

LW/SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 031849
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
249 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE DETAILS OF THE CONVECTION...BUT THEY DO
AGREE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY.  THE LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LIMITING THUNDER...AND
THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE GIVEN THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...SO WILL CARRY
JUST CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH THE CATEGORICAL SHOWERS.  WILL ALLOW THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE AS IS FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...EXTENDED CONTINUES
TO LOOK PRETTY WET...WITH TUESDAY LOOKING THE DRIEST.

AS WITH YESTERDAYS LONG TERM FORECAST...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
THERE IS STILL A BIT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW
A MORE DEVELOPED AND WETTER SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER.
HOWEVER...THE GFS DOES RESEMBLE THE NAM A LITTLE MORE TODAY THAN IT
DID YESTERDAY. SO WILL STILL TREND TOWARD THE WETTER NAM SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME. THE NAM ITSELF IS EVEN A LITTLE DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY.
NOW THE NAM LINGERS THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER OUR AREA INTO MONDAY
WHILE PREVIOUSLY IT HAD MONDAY DRIER. SO PRECIP CHANCES LOOK GREATER
NOW ON MONDAY INSTEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY DIURNAL LOOK.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRIER THANKFULLY...ALBEIT
BRIEF. DUE TO WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS OUR CWA...TUESDAY
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED IN TERMS OF BEING DRIER
AND SEEING SOME SUNSHINE. WILL STILL LEAVE LOW END CHANCE POPS IN
FOR TUESDAY DUE TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION CHANCES. BY WEDNESDAY PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN DUE TO AN INCOMING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM. THESE
PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY AS A FEW MORE IMPULSES MOVE
ACROSS A NOW ZONAL FLOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  79  68  81 /  80  80  60  70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  78  67  80 /  80  80  60  70
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  79  67  80 /  80  80  60  70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              66  77  65  78 /  80  80  50  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

LW/SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 031849
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
249 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE DETAILS OF THE CONVECTION...BUT THEY DO
AGREE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY.  THE LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LIMITING THUNDER...AND
THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE GIVEN THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...SO WILL CARRY
JUST CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH THE CATEGORICAL SHOWERS.  WILL ALLOW THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE AS IS FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...EXTENDED CONTINUES
TO LOOK PRETTY WET...WITH TUESDAY LOOKING THE DRIEST.

AS WITH YESTERDAYS LONG TERM FORECAST...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
THERE IS STILL A BIT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW
A MORE DEVELOPED AND WETTER SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER.
HOWEVER...THE GFS DOES RESEMBLE THE NAM A LITTLE MORE TODAY THAN IT
DID YESTERDAY. SO WILL STILL TREND TOWARD THE WETTER NAM SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME. THE NAM ITSELF IS EVEN A LITTLE DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY.
NOW THE NAM LINGERS THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER OUR AREA INTO MONDAY
WHILE PREVIOUSLY IT HAD MONDAY DRIER. SO PRECIP CHANCES LOOK GREATER
NOW ON MONDAY INSTEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY DIURNAL LOOK.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRIER THANKFULLY...ALBEIT
BRIEF. DUE TO WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS OUR CWA...TUESDAY
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED IN TERMS OF BEING DRIER
AND SEEING SOME SUNSHINE. WILL STILL LEAVE LOW END CHANCE POPS IN
FOR TUESDAY DUE TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION CHANCES. BY WEDNESDAY PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN DUE TO AN INCOMING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM. THESE
PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY AS A FEW MORE IMPULSES MOVE
ACROSS A NOW ZONAL FLOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  79  68  81 /  80  80  60  70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  78  67  80 /  80  80  60  70
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  79  67  80 /  80  80  60  70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              66  77  65  78 /  80  80  50  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

LW/SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 031849
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
249 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE DETAILS OF THE CONVECTION...BUT THEY DO
AGREE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY.  THE LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LIMITING THUNDER...AND
THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE GIVEN THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...SO WILL CARRY
JUST CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH THE CATEGORICAL SHOWERS.  WILL ALLOW THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE AS IS FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...EXTENDED CONTINUES
TO LOOK PRETTY WET...WITH TUESDAY LOOKING THE DRIEST.

AS WITH YESTERDAYS LONG TERM FORECAST...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
THERE IS STILL A BIT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW
A MORE DEVELOPED AND WETTER SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER.
HOWEVER...THE GFS DOES RESEMBLE THE NAM A LITTLE MORE TODAY THAN IT
DID YESTERDAY. SO WILL STILL TREND TOWARD THE WETTER NAM SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME. THE NAM ITSELF IS EVEN A LITTLE DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY.
NOW THE NAM LINGERS THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER OUR AREA INTO MONDAY
WHILE PREVIOUSLY IT HAD MONDAY DRIER. SO PRECIP CHANCES LOOK GREATER
NOW ON MONDAY INSTEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY DIURNAL LOOK.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRIER THANKFULLY...ALBEIT
BRIEF. DUE TO WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS OUR CWA...TUESDAY
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED IN TERMS OF BEING DRIER
AND SEEING SOME SUNSHINE. WILL STILL LEAVE LOW END CHANCE POPS IN
FOR TUESDAY DUE TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION CHANCES. BY WEDNESDAY PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN DUE TO AN INCOMING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM. THESE
PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY AS A FEW MORE IMPULSES MOVE
ACROSS A NOW ZONAL FLOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  79  68  81 /  80  80  60  70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  78  67  80 /  80  80  60  70
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  79  67  80 /  80  80  60  70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              66  77  65  78 /  80  80  50  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

LW/SR



000
FXUS64 KMRX 031849
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
249 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE DETAILS OF THE CONVECTION...BUT THEY DO
AGREE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY.  THE LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LIMITING THUNDER...AND
THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE GIVEN THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...SO WILL CARRY
JUST CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH THE CATEGORICAL SHOWERS.  WILL ALLOW THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE AS IS FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...EXTENDED CONTINUES
TO LOOK PRETTY WET...WITH TUESDAY LOOKING THE DRIEST.

AS WITH YESTERDAYS LONG TERM FORECAST...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
THERE IS STILL A BIT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW
A MORE DEVELOPED AND WETTER SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER.
HOWEVER...THE GFS DOES RESEMBLE THE NAM A LITTLE MORE TODAY THAN IT
DID YESTERDAY. SO WILL STILL TREND TOWARD THE WETTER NAM SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME. THE NAM ITSELF IS EVEN A LITTLE DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY.
NOW THE NAM LINGERS THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER OUR AREA INTO MONDAY
WHILE PREVIOUSLY IT HAD MONDAY DRIER. SO PRECIP CHANCES LOOK GREATER
NOW ON MONDAY INSTEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY DIURNAL LOOK.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRIER THANKFULLY...ALBEIT
BRIEF. DUE TO WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS OUR CWA...TUESDAY
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED IN TERMS OF BEING DRIER
AND SEEING SOME SUNSHINE. WILL STILL LEAVE LOW END CHANCE POPS IN
FOR TUESDAY DUE TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION CHANCES. BY WEDNESDAY PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN DUE TO AN INCOMING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM. THESE
PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY AS A FEW MORE IMPULSES MOVE
ACROSS A NOW ZONAL FLOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  79  68  81 /  80  80  60  70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  78  67  80 /  80  80  60  70
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  79  67  80 /  80  80  60  70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              66  77  65  78 /  80  80  50  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

LW/SR




000
FXUS64 KMEG 031722
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1222 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE AFTERNOON POPS.

DISCUSSION...

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S...TO MAYBE THE LOW 80S TODAY.
SO LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS ACCORDINGLY. SECOND COMPLEX OF STORMS
NOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN DELTA COUNTIES AND EXTENDS WEST
OF LITTLE ROCK. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL SLIDE EAST OVER ALREADY
WELL SATURATED GROUND IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI PRODUCING AN
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO 5 INCHES. AS A RESULT HAVE INCREASED
AFTERNOON POPS IN THE FFA...AND LOWERED THEM SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH WHERE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE RECENT WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...COURTESY OF AN
UNSEASONAL UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF
CENTERED OVER IOWA. THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT EAST TO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL
TROF AXIS DROPS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS WILL AID IN AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OVER
THE MIDSOUTH TODAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT.
BY LATE THIS EVENING... THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND ALONG
THE I40 CORRIDOR...WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT...AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF IS SEPARATED
FROM ITS NORTHERN BRANCH COMPONENT. DAYTIME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
WILL REMAIN WEAK...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH MS...IN IN THE VICINITY
OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DURING THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. GFS PROGS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH WEAK DAYTIME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY WARM TO A FEW
DEGREES SHY OF NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...BUT WILL BE LOCALLY AFFECTED
BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VERY ACTIVE TAF PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS...AND POSSIBLY BRIEF LIFR VSBY. LATER TONIGHT OUTSIDE
OF STORMS STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM WITH BORDERLINE LIFR/IFR
CIGS. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IMPROVEMENT WITH CONDITIONS BEFORE
04/18Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH
POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS IN T-STORMS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SWING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT JBR LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
     LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 031722
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1222 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE AFTERNOON POPS.

DISCUSSION...

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S...TO MAYBE THE LOW 80S TODAY.
SO LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS ACCORDINGLY. SECOND COMPLEX OF STORMS
NOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN DELTA COUNTIES AND EXTENDS WEST
OF LITTLE ROCK. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL SLIDE EAST OVER ALREADY
WELL SATURATED GROUND IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI PRODUCING AN
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO 5 INCHES. AS A RESULT HAVE INCREASED
AFTERNOON POPS IN THE FFA...AND LOWERED THEM SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH WHERE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE RECENT WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...COURTESY OF AN
UNSEASONAL UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF
CENTERED OVER IOWA. THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT EAST TO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL
TROF AXIS DROPS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS WILL AID IN AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OVER
THE MIDSOUTH TODAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT.
BY LATE THIS EVENING... THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND ALONG
THE I40 CORRIDOR...WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT...AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF IS SEPARATED
FROM ITS NORTHERN BRANCH COMPONENT. DAYTIME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
WILL REMAIN WEAK...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH MS...IN IN THE VICINITY
OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DURING THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. GFS PROGS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH WEAK DAYTIME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY WARM TO A FEW
DEGREES SHY OF NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...BUT WILL BE LOCALLY AFFECTED
BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VERY ACTIVE TAF PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS...AND POSSIBLY BRIEF LIFR VSBY. LATER TONIGHT OUTSIDE
OF STORMS STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM WITH BORDERLINE LIFR/IFR
CIGS. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IMPROVEMENT WITH CONDITIONS BEFORE
04/18Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH
POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS IN T-STORMS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SWING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT JBR LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
     LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 031717
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
117 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...NOT MUCH CHANGE DURING THE TAF PERIOD...WITH A VERY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND AT TIMES. WILL HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES...AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOHX 031655
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1155 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE AXIS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH 00Z.
CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL BE GREATEST FROM CSV SW
ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BECOME
MINIMAL BY 12Z AND THEREFORE...SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE INCLUDED. BY
SAT AFT...THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL AGAIN BE IN GOOD PLACEMENT SO AS
TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT. PRIOR TO 18Z
HOWEVER...WILL REFRAIN FROM CONVECTIVE INCLUSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE AXIS TO OUR NW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. THE
INCREASE IN CURVATURE AND SHEAR UPSTREAM WILL COMBINE WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING TO AGAIN PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY. FOR THE UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER THE
WEATHER POP CATEGORY FOR THE PRE 18Z PERIOD. WILL UTILIZE LIKELY
POPS EXCEPT CHC NW. BY AFT...THE CATEGORICAL POPS STILL LOOK OK.

OTW...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF
I-65. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...HOWEVER...WITH THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA RECEIVING THE GREATEST QPF FOR TODAY. MODEL
AREAL AVERAGES RANGE FROM 1/2 INCH TO 1 INCH WEST...1/4 TO 1/2
INCH EAST. OF COURSE...WITH THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO...LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...
WITH A JUICED UP MARITIME TROPICAL TROPOSPHERE ITS GOING TO BE
DIFFICULT TO TRY AND TIME BEGINNING AND ENDING OF CONVECTION FOR
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL SO HAVE OPTED TO JUST GO WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH
WILL WADDLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
DIGGING SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. CURRENTLY BULK OF CONVECTION IS
STRUNG OUT WEST TO EAST FROM ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHERN ALABAMA WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM JUST NORTHEAST
OF NASHVILLE ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER NORTHWARD. SHORT RANGE
MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z. ALL IN ALL
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD LESSER CONVECTION IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      80  67  81  66 /  80  50  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    79  65  80  65 /  80  50  50  30
CROSSVILLE     76  63  75  63 /  80  70  60  50
COLUMBIA       80  66  79  65 /  80  60  60  50
LAWRENCEBURG   79  67  79  65 /  80  60  60  40
WAVERLY        79  66  79  66 /  80  50  50  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

21



000
FXUS64 KOHX 031655
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1155 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE AXIS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH 00Z.
CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL BE GREATEST FROM CSV SW
ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BECOME
MINIMAL BY 12Z AND THEREFORE...SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE INCLUDED. BY
SAT AFT...THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL AGAIN BE IN GOOD PLACEMENT SO AS
TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT. PRIOR TO 18Z
HOWEVER...WILL REFRAIN FROM CONVECTIVE INCLUSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE AXIS TO OUR NW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. THE
INCREASE IN CURVATURE AND SHEAR UPSTREAM WILL COMBINE WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING TO AGAIN PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY. FOR THE UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER THE
WEATHER POP CATEGORY FOR THE PRE 18Z PERIOD. WILL UTILIZE LIKELY
POPS EXCEPT CHC NW. BY AFT...THE CATEGORICAL POPS STILL LOOK OK.

OTW...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF
I-65. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...HOWEVER...WITH THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA RECEIVING THE GREATEST QPF FOR TODAY. MODEL
AREAL AVERAGES RANGE FROM 1/2 INCH TO 1 INCH WEST...1/4 TO 1/2
INCH EAST. OF COURSE...WITH THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO...LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...
WITH A JUICED UP MARITIME TROPICAL TROPOSPHERE ITS GOING TO BE
DIFFICULT TO TRY AND TIME BEGINNING AND ENDING OF CONVECTION FOR
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL SO HAVE OPTED TO JUST GO WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH
WILL WADDLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
DIGGING SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. CURRENTLY BULK OF CONVECTION IS
STRUNG OUT WEST TO EAST FROM ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHERN ALABAMA WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM JUST NORTHEAST
OF NASHVILLE ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER NORTHWARD. SHORT RANGE
MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z. ALL IN ALL
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD LESSER CONVECTION IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      80  67  81  66 /  80  50  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    79  65  80  65 /  80  50  50  30
CROSSVILLE     76  63  75  63 /  80  70  60  50
COLUMBIA       80  66  79  65 /  80  60  60  50
LAWRENCEBURG   79  67  79  65 /  80  60  60  40
WAVERLY        79  66  79  66 /  80  50  50  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

21



000
FXUS64 KOHX 031655
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1155 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE AXIS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH 00Z.
CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL BE GREATEST FROM CSV SW
ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BECOME
MINIMAL BY 12Z AND THEREFORE...SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE INCLUDED. BY
SAT AFT...THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL AGAIN BE IN GOOD PLACEMENT SO AS
TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT. PRIOR TO 18Z
HOWEVER...WILL REFRAIN FROM CONVECTIVE INCLUSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE AXIS TO OUR NW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. THE
INCREASE IN CURVATURE AND SHEAR UPSTREAM WILL COMBINE WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING TO AGAIN PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY. FOR THE UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER THE
WEATHER POP CATEGORY FOR THE PRE 18Z PERIOD. WILL UTILIZE LIKELY
POPS EXCEPT CHC NW. BY AFT...THE CATEGORICAL POPS STILL LOOK OK.

OTW...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF
I-65. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...HOWEVER...WITH THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA RECEIVING THE GREATEST QPF FOR TODAY. MODEL
AREAL AVERAGES RANGE FROM 1/2 INCH TO 1 INCH WEST...1/4 TO 1/2
INCH EAST. OF COURSE...WITH THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO...LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...
WITH A JUICED UP MARITIME TROPICAL TROPOSPHERE ITS GOING TO BE
DIFFICULT TO TRY AND TIME BEGINNING AND ENDING OF CONVECTION FOR
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL SO HAVE OPTED TO JUST GO WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH
WILL WADDLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
DIGGING SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. CURRENTLY BULK OF CONVECTION IS
STRUNG OUT WEST TO EAST FROM ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHERN ALABAMA WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM JUST NORTHEAST
OF NASHVILLE ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER NORTHWARD. SHORT RANGE
MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z. ALL IN ALL
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD LESSER CONVECTION IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      80  67  81  66 /  80  50  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    79  65  80  65 /  80  50  50  30
CROSSVILLE     76  63  75  63 /  80  70  60  50
COLUMBIA       80  66  79  65 /  80  60  60  50
LAWRENCEBURG   79  67  79  65 /  80  60  60  40
WAVERLY        79  66  79  66 /  80  50  50  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

21



000
FXUS64 KOHX 031655
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1155 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE AXIS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH 00Z.
CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL BE GREATEST FROM CSV SW
ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BECOME
MINIMAL BY 12Z AND THEREFORE...SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE INCLUDED. BY
SAT AFT...THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL AGAIN BE IN GOOD PLACEMENT SO AS
TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT. PRIOR TO 18Z
HOWEVER...WILL REFRAIN FROM CONVECTIVE INCLUSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE AXIS TO OUR NW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. THE
INCREASE IN CURVATURE AND SHEAR UPSTREAM WILL COMBINE WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING TO AGAIN PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY. FOR THE UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER THE
WEATHER POP CATEGORY FOR THE PRE 18Z PERIOD. WILL UTILIZE LIKELY
POPS EXCEPT CHC NW. BY AFT...THE CATEGORICAL POPS STILL LOOK OK.

OTW...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF
I-65. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...HOWEVER...WITH THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA RECEIVING THE GREATEST QPF FOR TODAY. MODEL
AREAL AVERAGES RANGE FROM 1/2 INCH TO 1 INCH WEST...1/4 TO 1/2
INCH EAST. OF COURSE...WITH THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO...LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...
WITH A JUICED UP MARITIME TROPICAL TROPOSPHERE ITS GOING TO BE
DIFFICULT TO TRY AND TIME BEGINNING AND ENDING OF CONVECTION FOR
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL SO HAVE OPTED TO JUST GO WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH
WILL WADDLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
DIGGING SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. CURRENTLY BULK OF CONVECTION IS
STRUNG OUT WEST TO EAST FROM ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHERN ALABAMA WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM JUST NORTHEAST
OF NASHVILLE ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER NORTHWARD. SHORT RANGE
MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z. ALL IN ALL
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD LESSER CONVECTION IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      80  67  81  66 /  80  50  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    79  65  80  65 /  80  50  50  30
CROSSVILLE     76  63  75  63 /  80  70  60  50
COLUMBIA       80  66  79  65 /  80  60  60  50
LAWRENCEBURG   79  67  79  65 /  80  60  60  40
WAVERLY        79  66  79  66 /  80  50  50  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

21



000
FXUS64 KOHX 031655
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1155 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE AXIS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH 00Z.
CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL BE GREATEST FROM CSV SW
ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BECOME
MINIMAL BY 12Z AND THEREFORE...SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE INCLUDED. BY
SAT AFT...THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL AGAIN BE IN GOOD PLACEMENT SO AS
TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT. PRIOR TO 18Z
HOWEVER...WILL REFRAIN FROM CONVECTIVE INCLUSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE AXIS TO OUR NW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. THE
INCREASE IN CURVATURE AND SHEAR UPSTREAM WILL COMBINE WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING TO AGAIN PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY. FOR THE UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER THE
WEATHER POP CATEGORY FOR THE PRE 18Z PERIOD. WILL UTILIZE LIKELY
POPS EXCEPT CHC NW. BY AFT...THE CATEGORICAL POPS STILL LOOK OK.

OTW...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF
I-65. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...HOWEVER...WITH THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA RECEIVING THE GREATEST QPF FOR TODAY. MODEL
AREAL AVERAGES RANGE FROM 1/2 INCH TO 1 INCH WEST...1/4 TO 1/2
INCH EAST. OF COURSE...WITH THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO...LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...
WITH A JUICED UP MARITIME TROPICAL TROPOSPHERE ITS GOING TO BE
DIFFICULT TO TRY AND TIME BEGINNING AND ENDING OF CONVECTION FOR
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL SO HAVE OPTED TO JUST GO WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH
WILL WADDLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
DIGGING SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. CURRENTLY BULK OF CONVECTION IS
STRUNG OUT WEST TO EAST FROM ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHERN ALABAMA WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM JUST NORTHEAST
OF NASHVILLE ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER NORTHWARD. SHORT RANGE
MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z. ALL IN ALL
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD LESSER CONVECTION IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      80  67  81  66 /  80  50  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    79  65  80  65 /  80  50  50  30
CROSSVILLE     76  63  75  63 /  80  70  60  50
COLUMBIA       80  66  79  65 /  80  60  60  50
LAWRENCEBURG   79  67  79  65 /  80  60  60  40
WAVERLY        79  66  79  66 /  80  50  50  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

21



000
FXUS64 KOHX 031655
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1155 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE AXIS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH 00Z.
CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL BE GREATEST FROM CSV SW
ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BECOME
MINIMAL BY 12Z AND THEREFORE...SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE INCLUDED. BY
SAT AFT...THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL AGAIN BE IN GOOD PLACEMENT SO AS
TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT. PRIOR TO 18Z
HOWEVER...WILL REFRAIN FROM CONVECTIVE INCLUSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE AXIS TO OUR NW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. THE
INCREASE IN CURVATURE AND SHEAR UPSTREAM WILL COMBINE WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING TO AGAIN PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY. FOR THE UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER THE
WEATHER POP CATEGORY FOR THE PRE 18Z PERIOD. WILL UTILIZE LIKELY
POPS EXCEPT CHC NW. BY AFT...THE CATEGORICAL POPS STILL LOOK OK.

OTW...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF
I-65. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...HOWEVER...WITH THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA RECEIVING THE GREATEST QPF FOR TODAY. MODEL
AREAL AVERAGES RANGE FROM 1/2 INCH TO 1 INCH WEST...1/4 TO 1/2
INCH EAST. OF COURSE...WITH THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO...LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...
WITH A JUICED UP MARITIME TROPICAL TROPOSPHERE ITS GOING TO BE
DIFFICULT TO TRY AND TIME BEGINNING AND ENDING OF CONVECTION FOR
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL SO HAVE OPTED TO JUST GO WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH
WILL WADDLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
DIGGING SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. CURRENTLY BULK OF CONVECTION IS
STRUNG OUT WEST TO EAST FROM ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHERN ALABAMA WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM JUST NORTHEAST
OF NASHVILLE ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER NORTHWARD. SHORT RANGE
MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z. ALL IN ALL
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD LESSER CONVECTION IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      80  67  81  66 /  80  50  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    79  65  80  65 /  80  50  50  30
CROSSVILLE     76  63  75  63 /  80  70  60  50
COLUMBIA       80  66  79  65 /  80  60  60  50
LAWRENCEBURG   79  67  79  65 /  80  60  60  40
WAVERLY        79  66  79  66 /  80  50  50  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KMEG 031451
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
951 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE AFTERNOON POPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S...TO MAYBE THE LOW 80S TODAY.
SO LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS ACCORDINGLY. SECOND COMPLEX OF STORMS
NOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN DELTA COUNTIES AND EXTENDS WEST
OF LITTLE ROCK. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL SLIDE EAST OVER ALREADY
WELL SATURATED GROUND IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI PRODUCING AN
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO 5 INCHES. AS A RESULT HAVE INCREASED
AFTERNOON POPS IN THE FFA...AND LOWERED THEM SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH WHERE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 716 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE RECENT WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...COURTESY OF AN
UNSEASONAL UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF
CENTERED OVER IOWA. THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT EAST TO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL
TROF AXIS DROPS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS WILL AID IN AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OVER
THE MIDSOUTH TODAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT.
BY LATE THIS EVENING... THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND ALONG
THE I40 CORRIDOR...WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT...AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF IS SEPARATED
FROM ITS NORTHERN BRANCH COMPONENT. DAYTIME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
WILL REMAIN WEAK...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH MS...IN IN THE VICINITY
OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DURING THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. GFS PROGS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH WEAK DAYTIME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY WARM TO A FEW
DEGREES SHY OF NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...BUT WILL BE LOCALLY AFFECTED
BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH KTUP AND KMEM THIS MORNING.
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES AS THE
MORNING CONTINUES. VCTS AND TSRA ARE PROBABLE AT ALL FOUR TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. THE HRRR KEEPS TSRA OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WITH TS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IS LOW
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND FROM THE SOUTH.

JPM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
     LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 031451
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
951 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE AFTERNOON POPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S...TO MAYBE THE LOW 80S TODAY.
SO LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS ACCORDINGLY. SECOND COMPLEX OF STORMS
NOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN DELTA COUNTIES AND EXTENDS WEST
OF LITTLE ROCK. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL SLIDE EAST OVER ALREADY
WELL SATURATED GROUND IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI PRODUCING AN
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO 5 INCHES. AS A RESULT HAVE INCREASED
AFTERNOON POPS IN THE FFA...AND LOWERED THEM SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH WHERE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 716 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE RECENT WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...COURTESY OF AN
UNSEASONAL UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF
CENTERED OVER IOWA. THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT EAST TO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL
TROF AXIS DROPS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS WILL AID IN AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OVER
THE MIDSOUTH TODAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT.
BY LATE THIS EVENING... THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND ALONG
THE I40 CORRIDOR...WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT...AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF IS SEPARATED
FROM ITS NORTHERN BRANCH COMPONENT. DAYTIME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
WILL REMAIN WEAK...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH MS...IN IN THE VICINITY
OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DURING THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. GFS PROGS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH WEAK DAYTIME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY WARM TO A FEW
DEGREES SHY OF NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...BUT WILL BE LOCALLY AFFECTED
BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH KTUP AND KMEM THIS MORNING.
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES AS THE
MORNING CONTINUES. VCTS AND TSRA ARE PROBABLE AT ALL FOUR TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. THE HRRR KEEPS TSRA OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WITH TS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IS LOW
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND FROM THE SOUTH.

JPM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
     LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 031451
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
951 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE AFTERNOON POPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S...TO MAYBE THE LOW 80S TODAY.
SO LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS ACCORDINGLY. SECOND COMPLEX OF STORMS
NOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN DELTA COUNTIES AND EXTENDS WEST
OF LITTLE ROCK. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL SLIDE EAST OVER ALREADY
WELL SATURATED GROUND IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI PRODUCING AN
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO 5 INCHES. AS A RESULT HAVE INCREASED
AFTERNOON POPS IN THE FFA...AND LOWERED THEM SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH WHERE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 716 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE RECENT WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...COURTESY OF AN
UNSEASONAL UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF
CENTERED OVER IOWA. THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT EAST TO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL
TROF AXIS DROPS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS WILL AID IN AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OVER
THE MIDSOUTH TODAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT.
BY LATE THIS EVENING... THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND ALONG
THE I40 CORRIDOR...WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT...AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF IS SEPARATED
FROM ITS NORTHERN BRANCH COMPONENT. DAYTIME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
WILL REMAIN WEAK...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH MS...IN IN THE VICINITY
OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DURING THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. GFS PROGS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH WEAK DAYTIME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY WARM TO A FEW
DEGREES SHY OF NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...BUT WILL BE LOCALLY AFFECTED
BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH KTUP AND KMEM THIS MORNING.
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES AS THE
MORNING CONTINUES. VCTS AND TSRA ARE PROBABLE AT ALL FOUR TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. THE HRRR KEEPS TSRA OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WITH TS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IS LOW
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND FROM THE SOUTH.

JPM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
     LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 031451
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
951 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE AFTERNOON POPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S...TO MAYBE THE LOW 80S TODAY.
SO LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS ACCORDINGLY. SECOND COMPLEX OF STORMS
NOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN DELTA COUNTIES AND EXTENDS WEST
OF LITTLE ROCK. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL SLIDE EAST OVER ALREADY
WELL SATURATED GROUND IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI PRODUCING AN
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO 5 INCHES. AS A RESULT HAVE INCREASED
AFTERNOON POPS IN THE FFA...AND LOWERED THEM SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH WHERE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 716 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE RECENT WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...COURTESY OF AN
UNSEASONAL UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF
CENTERED OVER IOWA. THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT EAST TO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL
TROF AXIS DROPS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS WILL AID IN AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OVER
THE MIDSOUTH TODAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT.
BY LATE THIS EVENING... THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND ALONG
THE I40 CORRIDOR...WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT...AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF IS SEPARATED
FROM ITS NORTHERN BRANCH COMPONENT. DAYTIME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
WILL REMAIN WEAK...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH MS...IN IN THE VICINITY
OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DURING THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. GFS PROGS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH WEAK DAYTIME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY WARM TO A FEW
DEGREES SHY OF NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...BUT WILL BE LOCALLY AFFECTED
BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH KTUP AND KMEM THIS MORNING.
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES AS THE
MORNING CONTINUES. VCTS AND TSRA ARE PROBABLE AT ALL FOUR TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. THE HRRR KEEPS TSRA OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WITH TS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IS LOW
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND FROM THE SOUTH.

JPM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
     LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 031446
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
946 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE AXIS TO OUR NW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. THE
INCREASE IN CURVATURE AND SHEAR UPSTREAM WILL COMBINE WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING TO AGAIN PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY. FOR THE UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER THE
WEATHER POP CATEGORY FOR THE PRE 18Z PERIOD. WILL UTILIZE LIKELY
POPS EXCEPT CHC NW. BY AFT...THE CATEGORICAL POPS STILL LOOK OK.


OTW...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF
I-65. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...HOWEVER...WITH THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA RECEIVING THE GREATEST QPF FOR TODAY. MODEL
AREAL AVERAGES RANGE FROM 1/2 INCH TO 1 INCH WEST...1/4 TO 1/2
INCH EAST. OF COURSE...WITH THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO...LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...
WITH A JUICED UP MARITIME TROPICAL TROPOSPHERE ITS GOING TO BE
DIFFICULT TO TRY AND TIME BEGINNING AND ENDING OF CONVECTION FOR
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL SO HAVE OPTED TO JUST GO WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH
WILL WADDLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
DIGGING SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. CURRENTLY BULK OF CONVECTION IS
STRUNG OUT WEST TO EAST FROM ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHERN ALABAMA WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM JUST NORTHEAST
OF NASHVILLE ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER NORTHWARD. SHORT RANGE
MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z. ALL IN ALL
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD LESSER CONVECTION IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      80  67  81  66 /  80  50  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    79  65  80  65 /  80  50  50  30
CROSSVILLE     76  63  75  63 /  80  70  60  50
COLUMBIA       80  66  79  65 /  80  60  60  50
LAWRENCEBURG   79  67  79  65 /  80  60  60  40
WAVERLY        79  66  79  66 /  80  50  50  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KOHX 031446
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
946 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE AXIS TO OUR NW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. THE
INCREASE IN CURVATURE AND SHEAR UPSTREAM WILL COMBINE WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING TO AGAIN PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY. FOR THE UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER THE
WEATHER POP CATEGORY FOR THE PRE 18Z PERIOD. WILL UTILIZE LIKELY
POPS EXCEPT CHC NW. BY AFT...THE CATEGORICAL POPS STILL LOOK OK.


OTW...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF
I-65. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...HOWEVER...WITH THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA RECEIVING THE GREATEST QPF FOR TODAY. MODEL
AREAL AVERAGES RANGE FROM 1/2 INCH TO 1 INCH WEST...1/4 TO 1/2
INCH EAST. OF COURSE...WITH THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO...LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...
WITH A JUICED UP MARITIME TROPICAL TROPOSPHERE ITS GOING TO BE
DIFFICULT TO TRY AND TIME BEGINNING AND ENDING OF CONVECTION FOR
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL SO HAVE OPTED TO JUST GO WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH
WILL WADDLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
DIGGING SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. CURRENTLY BULK OF CONVECTION IS
STRUNG OUT WEST TO EAST FROM ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHERN ALABAMA WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM JUST NORTHEAST
OF NASHVILLE ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER NORTHWARD. SHORT RANGE
MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z. ALL IN ALL
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD LESSER CONVECTION IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      80  67  81  66 /  80  50  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    79  65  80  65 /  80  50  50  30
CROSSVILLE     76  63  75  63 /  80  70  60  50
COLUMBIA       80  66  79  65 /  80  60  60  50
LAWRENCEBURG   79  67  79  65 /  80  60  60  40
WAVERLY        79  66  79  66 /  80  50  50  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

21



000
FXUS64 KOHX 031446
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
946 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE AXIS TO OUR NW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. THE
INCREASE IN CURVATURE AND SHEAR UPSTREAM WILL COMBINE WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING TO AGAIN PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY. FOR THE UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER THE
WEATHER POP CATEGORY FOR THE PRE 18Z PERIOD. WILL UTILIZE LIKELY
POPS EXCEPT CHC NW. BY AFT...THE CATEGORICAL POPS STILL LOOK OK.


OTW...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF
I-65. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...HOWEVER...WITH THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA RECEIVING THE GREATEST QPF FOR TODAY. MODEL
AREAL AVERAGES RANGE FROM 1/2 INCH TO 1 INCH WEST...1/4 TO 1/2
INCH EAST. OF COURSE...WITH THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO...LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...
WITH A JUICED UP MARITIME TROPICAL TROPOSPHERE ITS GOING TO BE
DIFFICULT TO TRY AND TIME BEGINNING AND ENDING OF CONVECTION FOR
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL SO HAVE OPTED TO JUST GO WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH
WILL WADDLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
DIGGING SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. CURRENTLY BULK OF CONVECTION IS
STRUNG OUT WEST TO EAST FROM ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHERN ALABAMA WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM JUST NORTHEAST
OF NASHVILLE ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER NORTHWARD. SHORT RANGE
MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z. ALL IN ALL
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD LESSER CONVECTION IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      80  67  81  66 /  80  50  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    79  65  80  65 /  80  50  50  30
CROSSVILLE     76  63  75  63 /  80  70  60  50
COLUMBIA       80  66  79  65 /  80  60  60  50
LAWRENCEBURG   79  67  79  65 /  80  60  60  40
WAVERLY        79  66  79  66 /  80  50  50  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KMRX 031414
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1014 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE TO ADD SOME MORE DETAIL TO
POP/WEATHER TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS PRECIP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL
ALSO TWEAK SKY...TEMPS...AND DEW POINTS. BIGGEST CONCERN CONTINUES
TO BE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING GIVEN HOW SATURATED THE GROUND IS IN
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. NO CHANGES TO
FFA AT THIS POINT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             82  68  81  69 /  80  60  70  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  79  67  80  66 /  80  60  60  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       78  67  80  66 /  80  60  60  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              79  65  77  64 /  80  60  60  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 031414
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1014 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE TO ADD SOME MORE DETAIL TO
POP/WEATHER TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS PRECIP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL
ALSO TWEAK SKY...TEMPS...AND DEW POINTS. BIGGEST CONCERN CONTINUES
TO BE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING GIVEN HOW SATURATED THE GROUND IS IN
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. NO CHANGES TO
FFA AT THIS POINT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             82  68  81  69 /  80  60  70  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  79  67  80  66 /  80  60  60  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       78  67  80  66 /  80  60  60  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              79  65  77  64 /  80  60  60  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 031340
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
840 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR FLASH FLOOD ISSUANCE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS AND RADAR SUGGESTS STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BACK BUILD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA TODAY...WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING TONIGHT. ALREADY
NUMEROUS FLASHFLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED BASED OFF REPORTS OF
RAINFALL IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE IN THE PAST 4 HOURS. RAINFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED WITH FUTURE STORMS AS
THEY TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF A WYNNE ARKANSAS TO SAVANNAH TENNESSEE
LINE. EXPANSION OF THE FFA FARTHER NORTH WILL BE MONITORED TODAY.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 716 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE RECENT WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...COURTESY OF AN
UNSEASONAL UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF
CENTERED OVER IOWA. THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT EAST TO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL
TROF AXIS DROPS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS WILL AID IN AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OVER
THE MIDSOUTH TODAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT.
BY LATE THIS EVENING... THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND ALONG
THE I40 CORRIDOR...WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT...AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF IS SEPARATED
FROM ITS NORTHERN BRANCH COMPONENT. DAYTIME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
WILL REMAIN WEAK...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH MS...IN IN THE VICINITY
OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DURING THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. GFS PROGS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH WEAK DAYTIME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY WARM TO A FEW
DEGREES SHY OF NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...BUT WILL BE LOCALLY AFFECTED
BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH KTUP AND KMEM THIS MORNING.
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES AS THE
MORNING CONTINUES. VCTS AND TSRA ARE PROBABLE AT ALL FOUR TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. THE HRRR KEEPS TSRA OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WITH TS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IS LOW
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND FROM THE SOUTH.

JPM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
     LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 031340
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
840 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR FLASH FLOOD ISSUANCE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS AND RADAR SUGGESTS STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BACK BUILD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA TODAY...WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING TONIGHT. ALREADY
NUMEROUS FLASHFLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED BASED OFF REPORTS OF
RAINFALL IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE IN THE PAST 4 HOURS. RAINFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED WITH FUTURE STORMS AS
THEY TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF A WYNNE ARKANSAS TO SAVANNAH TENNESSEE
LINE. EXPANSION OF THE FFA FARTHER NORTH WILL BE MONITORED TODAY.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 716 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE RECENT WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...COURTESY OF AN
UNSEASONAL UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF
CENTERED OVER IOWA. THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT EAST TO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL
TROF AXIS DROPS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS WILL AID IN AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OVER
THE MIDSOUTH TODAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT.
BY LATE THIS EVENING... THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND ALONG
THE I40 CORRIDOR...WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT...AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF IS SEPARATED
FROM ITS NORTHERN BRANCH COMPONENT. DAYTIME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
WILL REMAIN WEAK...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH MS...IN IN THE VICINITY
OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DURING THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. GFS PROGS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH WEAK DAYTIME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY WARM TO A FEW
DEGREES SHY OF NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...BUT WILL BE LOCALLY AFFECTED
BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH KTUP AND KMEM THIS MORNING.
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES AS THE
MORNING CONTINUES. VCTS AND TSRA ARE PROBABLE AT ALL FOUR TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. THE HRRR KEEPS TSRA OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WITH TS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IS LOW
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND FROM THE SOUTH.

JPM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
     LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 031226
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
726 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
WITH A JUICED UP MARITIME TROPICAL TROPOSPHERE ITS GOING TO BE
DIFFICULT TO TRY AND TIME BEGINNING AND ENDING OF CONVECTION FOR
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL SO HAVE OPTED TO JUST GO WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH
WILL WADDLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
DIGGING SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. CURRENTLY BULK OF CONVECTION IS
STRUNG OUT WEST TO EAST FROM ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHERN ALABAMA WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM JUST NORTHEAST
OF NASHVILLE ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER NORTHWARD. SHORT RANGE
MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z. ALL IN ALL
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD LESSER CONVECTION IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

&&



.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$
BOYD
01



000
FXUS64 KOHX 031226
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
726 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
WITH A JUICED UP MARITIME TROPICAL TROPOSPHERE ITS GOING TO BE
DIFFICULT TO TRY AND TIME BEGINNING AND ENDING OF CONVECTION FOR
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL SO HAVE OPTED TO JUST GO WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH
WILL WADDLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
DIGGING SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. CURRENTLY BULK OF CONVECTION IS
STRUNG OUT WEST TO EAST FROM ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHERN ALABAMA WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM JUST NORTHEAST
OF NASHVILLE ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER NORTHWARD. SHORT RANGE
MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z. ALL IN ALL
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD LESSER CONVECTION IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

&&



.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$
BOYD
01



000
FXUS64 KOHX 031226
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
726 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
WITH A JUICED UP MARITIME TROPICAL TROPOSPHERE ITS GOING TO BE
DIFFICULT TO TRY AND TIME BEGINNING AND ENDING OF CONVECTION FOR
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL SO HAVE OPTED TO JUST GO WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH
WILL WADDLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
DIGGING SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. CURRENTLY BULK OF CONVECTION IS
STRUNG OUT WEST TO EAST FROM ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHERN ALABAMA WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM JUST NORTHEAST
OF NASHVILLE ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER NORTHWARD. SHORT RANGE
MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z. ALL IN ALL
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD LESSER CONVECTION IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

&&



.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$
BOYD
01



000
FXUS64 KOHX 031226
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
726 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
WITH A JUICED UP MARITIME TROPICAL TROPOSPHERE ITS GOING TO BE
DIFFICULT TO TRY AND TIME BEGINNING AND ENDING OF CONVECTION FOR
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL SO HAVE OPTED TO JUST GO WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH
WILL WADDLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
DIGGING SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. CURRENTLY BULK OF CONVECTION IS
STRUNG OUT WEST TO EAST FROM ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHERN ALABAMA WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM JUST NORTHEAST
OF NASHVILLE ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER NORTHWARD. SHORT RANGE
MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z. ALL IN ALL
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD LESSER CONVECTION IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

&&



.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$
BOYD
01



000
FXUS64 KOHX 031226
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
726 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
WITH A JUICED UP MARITIME TROPICAL TROPOSPHERE ITS GOING TO BE
DIFFICULT TO TRY AND TIME BEGINNING AND ENDING OF CONVECTION FOR
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL SO HAVE OPTED TO JUST GO WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH
WILL WADDLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
DIGGING SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. CURRENTLY BULK OF CONVECTION IS
STRUNG OUT WEST TO EAST FROM ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHERN ALABAMA WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM JUST NORTHEAST
OF NASHVILLE ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER NORTHWARD. SHORT RANGE
MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z. ALL IN ALL
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD LESSER CONVECTION IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

&&



.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$
BOYD
01




000
FXUS64 KOHX 031226
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
726 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
WITH A JUICED UP MARITIME TROPICAL TROPOSPHERE ITS GOING TO BE
DIFFICULT TO TRY AND TIME BEGINNING AND ENDING OF CONVECTION FOR
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL SO HAVE OPTED TO JUST GO WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH
WILL WADDLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
DIGGING SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. CURRENTLY BULK OF CONVECTION IS
STRUNG OUT WEST TO EAST FROM ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHERN ALABAMA WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM JUST NORTHEAST
OF NASHVILLE ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER NORTHWARD. SHORT RANGE
MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z. ALL IN ALL
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD LESSER CONVECTION IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

&&



.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$
BOYD
01



000
FXUS64 KMEG 031216
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
716 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE RECENT WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...COURTESY OF AN
UNSEASONAL UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF
CENTERED OVER IOWA. THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT EAST TO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL
TROF AXIS DROPS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS WILL AID IN AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OVER
THE MIDSOUTH TODAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT.
BY LATE THIS EVENING... THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND ALONG
THE I40 CORRIDOR...WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT...AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF IS SEPARATED
FROM ITS NORTHERN BRANCH COMPONENT. DAYTIME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
WILL REMAIN WEAK...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH MS...IN IN THE VICINITY
OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DURING THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. GFS PROGS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH WEAK DAYTIME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY WARM TO A FEW
DEGREES SHY OF NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...BUT WILL BE LOCALLY AFFECTED
BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

PWB

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH KTUP AND KMEM THIS MORNING.
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES AS THE
MORNING CONTINUES. VCTS AND TSRA ARE PROBABLE AT ALL FOUR TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. THE HRRR KEEPS TSRA OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WITH TS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IS LOW
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND FROM THE SOUTH.

JPM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 031216
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
716 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE RECENT WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...COURTESY OF AN
UNSEASONAL UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF
CENTERED OVER IOWA. THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT EAST TO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL
TROF AXIS DROPS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS WILL AID IN AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OVER
THE MIDSOUTH TODAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT.
BY LATE THIS EVENING... THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND ALONG
THE I40 CORRIDOR...WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT...AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF IS SEPARATED
FROM ITS NORTHERN BRANCH COMPONENT. DAYTIME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
WILL REMAIN WEAK...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH MS...IN IN THE VICINITY
OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DURING THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. GFS PROGS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH WEAK DAYTIME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY WARM TO A FEW
DEGREES SHY OF NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...BUT WILL BE LOCALLY AFFECTED
BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

PWB

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH KTUP AND KMEM THIS MORNING.
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES AS THE
MORNING CONTINUES. VCTS AND TSRA ARE PROBABLE AT ALL FOUR TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. THE HRRR KEEPS TSRA OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WITH TS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IS LOW
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND FROM THE SOUTH.

JPM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 031216
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
716 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE RECENT WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...COURTESY OF AN
UNSEASONAL UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF
CENTERED OVER IOWA. THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT EAST TO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL
TROF AXIS DROPS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS WILL AID IN AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OVER
THE MIDSOUTH TODAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT.
BY LATE THIS EVENING... THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND ALONG
THE I40 CORRIDOR...WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT...AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF IS SEPARATED
FROM ITS NORTHERN BRANCH COMPONENT. DAYTIME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
WILL REMAIN WEAK...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH MS...IN IN THE VICINITY
OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DURING THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. GFS PROGS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH WEAK DAYTIME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY WARM TO A FEW
DEGREES SHY OF NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...BUT WILL BE LOCALLY AFFECTED
BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

PWB

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH KTUP AND KMEM THIS MORNING.
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES AS THE
MORNING CONTINUES. VCTS AND TSRA ARE PROBABLE AT ALL FOUR TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. THE HRRR KEEPS TSRA OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WITH TS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IS LOW
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND FROM THE SOUTH.

JPM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 031139
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
739 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...AREA OF CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF CHA MAY AFFECT CHA
NEXT FEW HOURS BUT HAVE PREVAILING SHOWERS FOR NOW THEN VCTS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE LATER TODAY...WHICH WILL COVER
WITH VCTS/VCSH AT CHA/TYS. SHOWERS AND STORMS MOST LIKELY AT TRI
MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO HIGHLIGHTED WITH PREVAILING IN AFTERNOON.
BRIEF MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT PASS DIRECTLY
ACROSS TAF SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD



000
FXUS64 KMRX 031139
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
739 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...AREA OF CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF CHA MAY AFFECT CHA
NEXT FEW HOURS BUT HAVE PREVAILING SHOWERS FOR NOW THEN VCTS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE LATER TODAY...WHICH WILL COVER
WITH VCTS/VCSH AT CHA/TYS. SHOWERS AND STORMS MOST LIKELY AT TRI
MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO HIGHLIGHTED WITH PREVAILING IN AFTERNOON.
BRIEF MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT PASS DIRECTLY
ACROSS TAF SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD



000
FXUS64 KMRX 031139
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
739 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...AREA OF CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF CHA MAY AFFECT CHA
NEXT FEW HOURS BUT HAVE PREVAILING SHOWERS FOR NOW THEN VCTS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE LATER TODAY...WHICH WILL COVER
WITH VCTS/VCSH AT CHA/TYS. SHOWERS AND STORMS MOST LIKELY AT TRI
MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO HIGHLIGHTED WITH PREVAILING IN AFTERNOON.
BRIEF MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT PASS DIRECTLY
ACROSS TAF SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 031139
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
739 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...AREA OF CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF CHA MAY AFFECT CHA
NEXT FEW HOURS BUT HAVE PREVAILING SHOWERS FOR NOW THEN VCTS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE LATER TODAY...WHICH WILL COVER
WITH VCTS/VCSH AT CHA/TYS. SHOWERS AND STORMS MOST LIKELY AT TRI
MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO HIGHLIGHTED WITH PREVAILING IN AFTERNOON.
BRIEF MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT PASS DIRECTLY
ACROSS TAF SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMEG 030904
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
404 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE RECENT WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...COURTESY OF AN
UNSEASONAL UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF
CENTERED OVER IOWA. THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT EAST TO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL
TROF AXIS DROPS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS WILL AID IN AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OVER
THE MIDSOUTH TODAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT.
BY LATE THIS EVENING... THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND ALONG
THE I40 CORRIDOR...WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT...AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF IS SEPARATED
FROM ITS NORTHERN BRANCH COMPONENT. DAYTIME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
WILL REMAIN WEAK...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH MS...IN IN THE VICINITY
OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DURING THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. GFS PROGS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH WEAK DAYTIME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY WARM TO A FEW
DEGREES SHY OF NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...BUT WILL BE LOCALLY AFFECTED
BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY. ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 030904
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
404 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE RECENT WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...COURTESY OF AN
UNSEASONAL UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF
CENTERED OVER IOWA. THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT EAST TO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL
TROF AXIS DROPS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS WILL AID IN AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OVER
THE MIDSOUTH TODAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT.
BY LATE THIS EVENING... THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND ALONG
THE I40 CORRIDOR...WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT...AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF IS SEPARATED
FROM ITS NORTHERN BRANCH COMPONENT. DAYTIME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
WILL REMAIN WEAK...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH MS...IN IN THE VICINITY
OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DURING THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. GFS PROGS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH WEAK DAYTIME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY WARM TO A FEW
DEGREES SHY OF NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...BUT WILL BE LOCALLY AFFECTED
BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY. ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 030752
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
252 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING EASTERN HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND PLATEAU AS MORE RAIN...SOME HEAVY...IS IN THE FORECAST TODAY
INTO SATURDAY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS
UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES ON WESTERN SIDE WILL DROP DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND MOVE ACROSS THE TOP OF QUASI-STATIONARY
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
BACK ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER. TROPOSPHERE SOUTH OF
SURFACE BOUNDARY JUICED UP WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER. THIS
INTERACTION WILL KEEP CONVECTION ONGOING FROM ARKANSAS THROUGH
WESTERN TENNESSEE AND ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY...TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HIGHER QPF`S WILL BE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY
WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RESIDES AND A MORE
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL JET WILL EXIST. LASTEST RUC MODEL SHOWING
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY FEEDING FROM
ARKANSAS INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO MY CWA. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
HEATING TODAY AND SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS EACH PERIOD WHILE A WEAKER NORTHWEST FLOW EXIST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 80S...WHICH IS MORE SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

.CLIMATE...CALENDAR DAY RAINFALL AT CROSSVILLE FOR JULY 2ND TOTALED
4.81 INCHES WHICH SET A NEW RECORD FOR THE DATE...PREVIOUS RECORD
WAS 1.58 INCHES IN 1992.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      80  67  81  66 /  70  50  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    79  65  80  65 /  70  50  50  30
CROSSVILLE     76  63  75  63 /  70  70  60  50
COLUMBIA       80  66  79  65 /  70  60  60  50
LAWRENCEBURG   79  67  79  65 /  70  60  60  40
WAVERLY        79  66  79  66 /  70  50  50  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$
BOYD
01



000
FXUS64 KOHX 030752
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
252 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING EASTERN HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND PLATEAU AS MORE RAIN...SOME HEAVY...IS IN THE FORECAST TODAY
INTO SATURDAY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS
UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES ON WESTERN SIDE WILL DROP DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND MOVE ACROSS THE TOP OF QUASI-STATIONARY
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
BACK ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER. TROPOSPHERE SOUTH OF
SURFACE BOUNDARY JUICED UP WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER. THIS
INTERACTION WILL KEEP CONVECTION ONGOING FROM ARKANSAS THROUGH
WESTERN TENNESSEE AND ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY...TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HIGHER QPF`S WILL BE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY
WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RESIDES AND A MORE
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL JET WILL EXIST. LASTEST RUC MODEL SHOWING
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY FEEDING FROM
ARKANSAS INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO MY CWA. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
HEATING TODAY AND SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS EACH PERIOD WHILE A WEAKER NORTHWEST FLOW EXIST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 80S...WHICH IS MORE SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

.CLIMATE...CALENDAR DAY RAINFALL AT CROSSVILLE FOR JULY 2ND TOTALED
4.81 INCHES WHICH SET A NEW RECORD FOR THE DATE...PREVIOUS RECORD
WAS 1.58 INCHES IN 1992.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      80  67  81  66 /  70  50  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    79  65  80  65 /  70  50  50  30
CROSSVILLE     76  63  75  63 /  70  70  60  50
COLUMBIA       80  66  79  65 /  70  60  60  50
LAWRENCEBURG   79  67  79  65 /  70  60  60  40
WAVERLY        79  66  79  66 /  70  50  50  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$
BOYD
01



000
FXUS64 KOHX 030752
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
252 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING EASTERN HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND PLATEAU AS MORE RAIN...SOME HEAVY...IS IN THE FORECAST TODAY
INTO SATURDAY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS
UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES ON WESTERN SIDE WILL DROP DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND MOVE ACROSS THE TOP OF QUASI-STATIONARY
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
BACK ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER. TROPOSPHERE SOUTH OF
SURFACE BOUNDARY JUICED UP WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER. THIS
INTERACTION WILL KEEP CONVECTION ONGOING FROM ARKANSAS THROUGH
WESTERN TENNESSEE AND ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY...TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HIGHER QPF`S WILL BE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY
WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RESIDES AND A MORE
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL JET WILL EXIST. LASTEST RUC MODEL SHOWING
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY FEEDING FROM
ARKANSAS INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO MY CWA. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
HEATING TODAY AND SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS EACH PERIOD WHILE A WEAKER NORTHWEST FLOW EXIST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 80S...WHICH IS MORE SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

.CLIMATE...CALENDAR DAY RAINFALL AT CROSSVILLE FOR JULY 2ND TOTALED
4.81 INCHES WHICH SET A NEW RECORD FOR THE DATE...PREVIOUS RECORD
WAS 1.58 INCHES IN 1992.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      80  67  81  66 /  70  50  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    79  65  80  65 /  70  50  50  30
CROSSVILLE     76  63  75  63 /  70  70  60  50
COLUMBIA       80  66  79  65 /  70  60  60  50
LAWRENCEBURG   79  67  79  65 /  70  60  60  40
WAVERLY        79  66  79  66 /  70  50  50  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$
BOYD
01




000
FXUS64 KOHX 030752
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
252 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING EASTERN HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND PLATEAU AS MORE RAIN...SOME HEAVY...IS IN THE FORECAST TODAY
INTO SATURDAY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS
UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES ON WESTERN SIDE WILL DROP DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND MOVE ACROSS THE TOP OF QUASI-STATIONARY
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
BACK ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER. TROPOSPHERE SOUTH OF
SURFACE BOUNDARY JUICED UP WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER. THIS
INTERACTION WILL KEEP CONVECTION ONGOING FROM ARKANSAS THROUGH
WESTERN TENNESSEE AND ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY...TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HIGHER QPF`S WILL BE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY
WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RESIDES AND A MORE
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL JET WILL EXIST. LASTEST RUC MODEL SHOWING
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY FEEDING FROM
ARKANSAS INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO MY CWA. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
HEATING TODAY AND SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS EACH PERIOD WHILE A WEAKER NORTHWEST FLOW EXIST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 80S...WHICH IS MORE SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

.CLIMATE...CALENDAR DAY RAINFALL AT CROSSVILLE FOR JULY 2ND TOTALED
4.81 INCHES WHICH SET A NEW RECORD FOR THE DATE...PREVIOUS RECORD
WAS 1.58 INCHES IN 1992.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      80  67  81  66 /  70  50  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    79  65  80  65 /  70  50  50  30
CROSSVILLE     76  63  75  63 /  70  70  60  50
COLUMBIA       80  66  79  65 /  70  60  60  50
LAWRENCEBURG   79  67  79  65 /  70  60  60  40
WAVERLY        79  66  79  66 /  70  50  50  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$
BOYD
01




000
FXUS64 KMRX 030736
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
336 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AN ACTIVE NIGHT AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THE RISK FOR FLOODING
CONTINUES TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH INTO THE MS
AND TN VALLEYS. A COMPLEX OF STORMS JUST SOUTH OF NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT THAT LIES ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE TN BORDER AND STRETCHING
FROM TN WEST TO OK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND PRODUCE
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING. BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL VERY SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY DECREASE AFTER ABOUT
12Z BUT SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FROM ABOUT 1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES ACROSS
THE REGION AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.2 TO
ABOUT 1.5 IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES FOR ONE
HOUR IN THE NE. THREE HOURLY AMOUNTS ARE FROM ABOUT 1.5 TO 2.5
INCHES. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE SO
WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST EARLY BUT INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS
CONVECTION SHOULD AFFECT ALL AREAS AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. HIGHS
AGAIN WILL BE HELD DOWN BY CLOUDS AND RAIN AND STAY MOSTLY IN THE
70S. TONIGHT CONTINUED HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH POSSIBLE LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED.  THE AREA WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE STORM TRACK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE STREAM OF OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON TOP OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINS DURING THE PRIOR WORK WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
EXACERBATE THE SATURATED GROUND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED
LOCALIZED FLOODING.  BRIEF...WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN AROUND THE
MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME...LIMITING CONVECTION TO MAINLY DIURNAL
ACTIVITY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
INCREASING CONVECTION OVER THE REGION ONCE AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             81  68  81  69 /  80  60  70  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  67  80  66 /  80  60  60  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       77  67  80  66 /  80  60  60  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              77  65  77  64 /  80  60  60  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD/MJB



000
FXUS64 KMRX 030736
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
336 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AN ACTIVE NIGHT AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THE RISK FOR FLOODING
CONTINUES TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH INTO THE MS
AND TN VALLEYS. A COMPLEX OF STORMS JUST SOUTH OF NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT THAT LIES ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE TN BORDER AND STRETCHING
FROM TN WEST TO OK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND PRODUCE
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING. BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL VERY SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY DECREASE AFTER ABOUT
12Z BUT SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FROM ABOUT 1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES ACROSS
THE REGION AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.2 TO
ABOUT 1.5 IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES FOR ONE
HOUR IN THE NE. THREE HOURLY AMOUNTS ARE FROM ABOUT 1.5 TO 2.5
INCHES. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE SO
WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST EARLY BUT INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS
CONVECTION SHOULD AFFECT ALL AREAS AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. HIGHS
AGAIN WILL BE HELD DOWN BY CLOUDS AND RAIN AND STAY MOSTLY IN THE
70S. TONIGHT CONTINUED HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH POSSIBLE LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED.  THE AREA WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE STORM TRACK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE STREAM OF OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON TOP OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINS DURING THE PRIOR WORK WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
EXACERBATE THE SATURATED GROUND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED
LOCALIZED FLOODING.  BRIEF...WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN AROUND THE
MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME...LIMITING CONVECTION TO MAINLY DIURNAL
ACTIVITY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
INCREASING CONVECTION OVER THE REGION ONCE AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             81  68  81  69 /  80  60  70  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  67  80  66 /  80  60  60  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       77  67  80  66 /  80  60  60  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              77  65  77  64 /  80  60  60  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD/MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 030515
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
115 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SE FROM MIDDLE AND WRN TN OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DEFINITELY AFFECT CHA AND TYS. OPTED TO DROP BACK TO JUST
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FOR TRI...WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT
ANY TAF SITE.

OTHERWISE...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY AREAWIDE FOR
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL COVER WITH VCTS/VCSH AT CHA/TYS. SHOWERS AND
STORMS SEEM MOST LIKELY FOR TRI BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO
HIGHLIGHTED A BIT STRONGER THERE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...BRIEF MVFR TO
IFR POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE TO PASS DIRECTLY
ACROSS TAF SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TG



000
FXUS64 KMRX 030515
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
115 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SE FROM MIDDLE AND WRN TN OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DEFINITELY AFFECT CHA AND TYS. OPTED TO DROP BACK TO JUST
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FOR TRI...WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT
ANY TAF SITE.

OTHERWISE...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY AREAWIDE FOR
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL COVER WITH VCTS/VCSH AT CHA/TYS. SHOWERS AND
STORMS SEEM MOST LIKELY FOR TRI BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO
HIGHLIGHTED A BIT STRONGER THERE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...BRIEF MVFR TO
IFR POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE TO PASS DIRECTLY
ACROSS TAF SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 030515
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
115 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SE FROM MIDDLE AND WRN TN OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DEFINITELY AFFECT CHA AND TYS. OPTED TO DROP BACK TO JUST
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FOR TRI...WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT
ANY TAF SITE.

OTHERWISE...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY AREAWIDE FOR
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL COVER WITH VCTS/VCSH AT CHA/TYS. SHOWERS AND
STORMS SEEM MOST LIKELY FOR TRI BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO
HIGHLIGHTED A BIT STRONGER THERE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...BRIEF MVFR TO
IFR POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE TO PASS DIRECTLY
ACROSS TAF SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 030515
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
115 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SE FROM MIDDLE AND WRN TN OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DEFINITELY AFFECT CHA AND TYS. OPTED TO DROP BACK TO JUST
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FOR TRI...WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT
ANY TAF SITE.

OTHERWISE...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY AREAWIDE FOR
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL COVER WITH VCTS/VCSH AT CHA/TYS. SHOWERS AND
STORMS SEEM MOST LIKELY FOR TRI BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO
HIGHLIGHTED A BIT STRONGER THERE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...BRIEF MVFR TO
IFR POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE TO PASS DIRECTLY
ACROSS TAF SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TG



000
FXUS64 KOHX 030501
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1201 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, AS AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE TO
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF TSTMS AND CIGS BTWN 15K AND 30K FT. EACH
TERMINAL SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AT LEAST BRIEF PERIODS OF
VFR CONDITIONS WHEN TSTMS ARE LEAST NUMEROUS, BUT IT`S HARD TO
PREDICT THOSE PERIODS WITH ANY DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THIS WILL BE
ANOTHER DAY WHEN PILOTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN ESPECIALLY CLOSE EYE
ON RADAR TRENDS WHEN MAKING FLIGHT PLANS, AND STAY ABREAST OF ANY
AND ALL TAF AMENDMENTS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      83  70  80  67 /  90  70  60  50
CLARKSVILLE    83  68  79  66 /  50  40  60  40
CROSSVILLE     77  66  76  66 / 100  80  70  60
COLUMBIA       84  71  80  68 /  90  80  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   81  72  79  68 /  90  80  60  60
WAVERLY        83  69  79  68 /  50  40  70  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

19



000
FXUS64 KOHX 030501
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1201 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, AS AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE TO
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF TSTMS AND CIGS BTWN 15K AND 30K FT. EACH
TERMINAL SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AT LEAST BRIEF PERIODS OF
VFR CONDITIONS WHEN TSTMS ARE LEAST NUMEROUS, BUT IT`S HARD TO
PREDICT THOSE PERIODS WITH ANY DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THIS WILL BE
ANOTHER DAY WHEN PILOTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN ESPECIALLY CLOSE EYE
ON RADAR TRENDS WHEN MAKING FLIGHT PLANS, AND STAY ABREAST OF ANY
AND ALL TAF AMENDMENTS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      83  70  80  67 /  90  70  60  50
CLARKSVILLE    83  68  79  66 /  50  40  60  40
CROSSVILLE     77  66  76  66 / 100  80  70  60
COLUMBIA       84  71  80  68 /  90  80  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   81  72  79  68 /  90  80  60  60
WAVERLY        83  69  79  68 /  50  40  70  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KOHX 030501
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1201 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, AS AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE TO
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF TSTMS AND CIGS BTWN 15K AND 30K FT. EACH
TERMINAL SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AT LEAST BRIEF PERIODS OF
VFR CONDITIONS WHEN TSTMS ARE LEAST NUMEROUS, BUT IT`S HARD TO
PREDICT THOSE PERIODS WITH ANY DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THIS WILL BE
ANOTHER DAY WHEN PILOTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN ESPECIALLY CLOSE EYE
ON RADAR TRENDS WHEN MAKING FLIGHT PLANS, AND STAY ABREAST OF ANY
AND ALL TAF AMENDMENTS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      83  70  80  67 /  90  70  60  50
CLARKSVILLE    83  68  79  66 /  50  40  60  40
CROSSVILLE     77  66  76  66 / 100  80  70  60
COLUMBIA       84  71  80  68 /  90  80  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   81  72  79  68 /  90  80  60  60
WAVERLY        83  69  79  68 /  50  40  70  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

19



000
FXUS64 KOHX 030501
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1201 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, AS AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE TO
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF TSTMS AND CIGS BTWN 15K AND 30K FT. EACH
TERMINAL SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AT LEAST BRIEF PERIODS OF
VFR CONDITIONS WHEN TSTMS ARE LEAST NUMEROUS, BUT IT`S HARD TO
PREDICT THOSE PERIODS WITH ANY DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THIS WILL BE
ANOTHER DAY WHEN PILOTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN ESPECIALLY CLOSE EYE
ON RADAR TRENDS WHEN MAKING FLIGHT PLANS, AND STAY ABREAST OF ANY
AND ALL TAF AMENDMENTS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      83  70  80  67 /  90  70  60  50
CLARKSVILLE    83  68  79  66 /  50  40  60  40
CROSSVILLE     77  66  76  66 / 100  80  70  60
COLUMBIA       84  71  80  68 /  90  80  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   81  72  79  68 /  90  80  60  60
WAVERLY        83  69  79  68 /  50  40  70  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KMEG 030453
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1153 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 839 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

UPDATE...

AT MID EVENING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. WHILE A SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS SHOULD BE LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAIN. STORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING AROUND 1 INCH/HOUR
ACCUMULATION BASED ON DUAL POL RADAR ESTIMATES. A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD ASSIST IN ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT. OVERNIGHT...WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR TRAINING OF
STORMS WHICH WOULD INCREASE ACCUMULATION AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

OVERALL FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL ADJUST THE 00-06Z QPF
TO BETTER FIT CURRENT TRENDS. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE /HRRR AND 18Z NAM/
SUGGEST AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CURRENTLY DEPICTED. TIMING/LOCATION OF AREAS OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON
FRIDAY WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON OVERNIGHT EVOLUTION OF CURRENT
CONVECTION.

GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ERODE...WITH ATMOSPHERE FINALLY SEEING A SLOW
DESTABILIZATION. A FEW STORMS ON RADAR HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...BUT HAVE REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. STORM
COVERAGE HAS ALSO REMAINED STEADY. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. HIGHS
SHOULD CLIMB TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE JUST ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
RUNNING FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TO THE OHIO RIVER...WHILE A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
FIRST WAVE WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING WHICH COULD PROVIDE FOR
MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. MODELS HOWEVER HAVE BEEN VERY BULLISH
WITH THIS SCENARIO...LEADING TO MUCH HIGHER QPF...BUT ONLY
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE HAS REALLY SEEN THIS ACTION.
SO AM A BIT HESITANT ON KEEPING POPS HIGHER THAN 60 PERCENT
BEYOND THE FIRST 12 HOURS. THERE ARE JUST TOO MANY FACTORS THAT
COULD MUCK UP THE AREA...COLD POOLS...LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...ETC.
THIS IN TURN WOULD LEAD TO PROLONGED STABILITY DURING THE
DAY...GENERATING ONLY WIDELY ISOLATED ACTIVITY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE FORTY SEEING
THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF BULK SHEAR...25 TO 30 KTS...WITH THE
APPROACHING WAVE. THE WORST THREAT THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE VERY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...SUCH AS WAS SEEN IN OBION
COUNTY LAST NIGHT. DUE TO RAIN CHANCES AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAKER NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW IS
PROJECTED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
HEIGHTS BUILD IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY CREEP BACK UP TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S..OR NEAR
NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. CONVECTION WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WITH MAX HEATING AND WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY. ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 030453
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1153 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 839 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

UPDATE...

AT MID EVENING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. WHILE A SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS SHOULD BE LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAIN. STORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING AROUND 1 INCH/HOUR
ACCUMULATION BASED ON DUAL POL RADAR ESTIMATES. A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD ASSIST IN ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT. OVERNIGHT...WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR TRAINING OF
STORMS WHICH WOULD INCREASE ACCUMULATION AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

OVERALL FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL ADJUST THE 00-06Z QPF
TO BETTER FIT CURRENT TRENDS. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE /HRRR AND 18Z NAM/
SUGGEST AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CURRENTLY DEPICTED. TIMING/LOCATION OF AREAS OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON
FRIDAY WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON OVERNIGHT EVOLUTION OF CURRENT
CONVECTION.

GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ERODE...WITH ATMOSPHERE FINALLY SEEING A SLOW
DESTABILIZATION. A FEW STORMS ON RADAR HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...BUT HAVE REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. STORM
COVERAGE HAS ALSO REMAINED STEADY. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. HIGHS
SHOULD CLIMB TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE JUST ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
RUNNING FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TO THE OHIO RIVER...WHILE A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
FIRST WAVE WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING WHICH COULD PROVIDE FOR
MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. MODELS HOWEVER HAVE BEEN VERY BULLISH
WITH THIS SCENARIO...LEADING TO MUCH HIGHER QPF...BUT ONLY
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE HAS REALLY SEEN THIS ACTION.
SO AM A BIT HESITANT ON KEEPING POPS HIGHER THAN 60 PERCENT
BEYOND THE FIRST 12 HOURS. THERE ARE JUST TOO MANY FACTORS THAT
COULD MUCK UP THE AREA...COLD POOLS...LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...ETC.
THIS IN TURN WOULD LEAD TO PROLONGED STABILITY DURING THE
DAY...GENERATING ONLY WIDELY ISOLATED ACTIVITY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE FORTY SEEING
THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF BULK SHEAR...25 TO 30 KTS...WITH THE
APPROACHING WAVE. THE WORST THREAT THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE VERY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...SUCH AS WAS SEEN IN OBION
COUNTY LAST NIGHT. DUE TO RAIN CHANCES AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAKER NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW IS
PROJECTED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
HEIGHTS BUILD IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY CREEP BACK UP TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S..OR NEAR
NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. CONVECTION WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WITH MAX HEATING AND WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY. ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 030314
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1014 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...HEAVY RAINS OVER RECENT DAYS OVER EASTER AND CENTRAL
MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-24. A NUMBER OF
SPOTS OVER THE EAST SAW RAIN AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES OR MORE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THAT WAS ON TOP OF THE RAINS THAT FELL
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. IN ADDITION, A CLUSTER OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORM
RAINS MOVED OVER THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THIS EVENING AND
RESULTED IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OVER PARTS OF CLAY, JACKSON
AND PUTNAM COUNTIES.

WILL LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT AND NEARBY WFO`S LOOK AT RAINFALL
EXPECTATIONS TO DECIDE IF FFA NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER WEST.

STORMS SURVEYS ARE PLANNED FOR FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE WILSON
COUNTY AREA WERE SEVERAL TORNADOES MAY HAVE OCCURRED.

WE REMAIN UNDER THE SAME UNSTABLE, MOIST WEATHER REGIME THROUGH
THE 4TH OF JULY, WITH BETWEEN 2 AND 4 MORE INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE
OVER THE MID STATE.

ASIDE FROM THE ISSUANCE OF THE FFA, NO OTHER CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      70  80  67  81 /  70  60  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    68  79  66  80 /  40  60  40  50
CROSSVILLE     66  76  66  75 /  80  70  60  60
COLUMBIA       71  80  68  79 /  80  60  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   72  79  68  79 /  80  60  60  60
WAVERLY        69  79  68  79 /  40  70  50  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

19



000
FXUS64 KOHX 030314
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1014 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...HEAVY RAINS OVER RECENT DAYS OVER EASTER AND CENTRAL
MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-24. A NUMBER OF
SPOTS OVER THE EAST SAW RAIN AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES OR MORE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THAT WAS ON TOP OF THE RAINS THAT FELL
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. IN ADDITION, A CLUSTER OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORM
RAINS MOVED OVER THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THIS EVENING AND
RESULTED IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OVER PARTS OF CLAY, JACKSON
AND PUTNAM COUNTIES.

WILL LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT AND NEARBY WFO`S LOOK AT RAINFALL
EXPECTATIONS TO DECIDE IF FFA NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER WEST.

STORMS SURVEYS ARE PLANNED FOR FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE WILSON
COUNTY AREA WERE SEVERAL TORNADOES MAY HAVE OCCURRED.

WE REMAIN UNDER THE SAME UNSTABLE, MOIST WEATHER REGIME THROUGH
THE 4TH OF JULY, WITH BETWEEN 2 AND 4 MORE INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE
OVER THE MID STATE.

ASIDE FROM THE ISSUANCE OF THE FFA, NO OTHER CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      70  80  67  81 /  70  60  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    68  79  66  80 /  40  60  40  50
CROSSVILLE     66  76  66  75 /  80  70  60  60
COLUMBIA       71  80  68  79 /  80  60  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   72  79  68  79 /  80  60  60  60
WAVERLY        69  79  68  79 /  40  70  50  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

19




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