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000
FXUS64 KMEG 030426
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1126 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...

REDUCED POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE BOUNDARY THAT FOCUSED EARLIER CONVECTION AND LED TO FLASH
FLOODING IN AREAS ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE HAS NOW DIMINISHED IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...BUT REMAINS SCATTERED IN NATURE. ALTHOUGH
SOME HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT FLOODING SHOULD
BE MORE ISOLATED. FURTHER NORTHWEST...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGHT THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

UPDATED FORECAST AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM A DECAYING NOCTURNAL MCS OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU. THIS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DELINEATED THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WAS SOUTHEAST
OF A FOREST CITY AR... TO MEMPHIS TO DYERSBURG TN LINE AT 3 PM.
BEST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WAS NOTED OVER NORTH MS... THIS WILL BE
THE AREA MOST FAVORED FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY EVENING.

WHILE THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER NORTH MS THIS EVENING...
MODELS DEPICT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM FORMATION OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE IMMEDIATE UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL... GIVEN THE COOL BUBBLE HIGH FROM THIS MORNING/S MCS
OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU. IN ANY CASE...BUILDING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS
AND WEAKER ZONAL STEERING WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH.

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE
DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL SURFACE HEATING AND SUBTLE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HEAT INDICES THURSDAY LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLS OVER THE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN CONUS WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING AND STRONGER MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
DAYTIME RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MIDSOUTH. GFS MEX GUIDANCE TEMPS
APPEAR TOO WARM FOR THE PATTERN...PARTICULARLY IF PREFRONTAL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
PROVIDE A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN FOLLOWING THE MIDWEEK HEAT.

SUNDAY WILL SEE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOLLOW THE FRONT ON IT/S WAY TO
CENTRAL/SOUTH MS. DRIER AIR WILL EDGE IN FROM THE NORTH TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY. LOW LEVEL WILL RETURN TO
THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD IN
ADVANCE OF A MIDWEEK LONGWAVE UPPER TROF DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND WEST
TENNESSEE WILL KEEP EVENING CONVECTION AROUND THE TAF
SITES...WITH MKL HAVING A PERIOD OF ON STATION ACTIVITY. LATER
IN THE NIGHT CONFIDENT THAT IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP AND
PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.
LIGHT SOUTH/VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5-9 KTS AFTER 03/18Z.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 030426
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1126 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...

REDUCED POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE BOUNDARY THAT FOCUSED EARLIER CONVECTION AND LED TO FLASH
FLOODING IN AREAS ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE HAS NOW DIMINISHED IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...BUT REMAINS SCATTERED IN NATURE. ALTHOUGH
SOME HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT FLOODING SHOULD
BE MORE ISOLATED. FURTHER NORTHWEST...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGHT THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

UPDATED FORECAST AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM A DECAYING NOCTURNAL MCS OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU. THIS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DELINEATED THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WAS SOUTHEAST
OF A FOREST CITY AR... TO MEMPHIS TO DYERSBURG TN LINE AT 3 PM.
BEST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WAS NOTED OVER NORTH MS... THIS WILL BE
THE AREA MOST FAVORED FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY EVENING.

WHILE THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER NORTH MS THIS EVENING...
MODELS DEPICT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM FORMATION OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE IMMEDIATE UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL... GIVEN THE COOL BUBBLE HIGH FROM THIS MORNING/S MCS
OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU. IN ANY CASE...BUILDING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS
AND WEAKER ZONAL STEERING WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH.

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE
DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL SURFACE HEATING AND SUBTLE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HEAT INDICES THURSDAY LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLS OVER THE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN CONUS WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING AND STRONGER MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
DAYTIME RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MIDSOUTH. GFS MEX GUIDANCE TEMPS
APPEAR TOO WARM FOR THE PATTERN...PARTICULARLY IF PREFRONTAL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
PROVIDE A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN FOLLOWING THE MIDWEEK HEAT.

SUNDAY WILL SEE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOLLOW THE FRONT ON IT/S WAY TO
CENTRAL/SOUTH MS. DRIER AIR WILL EDGE IN FROM THE NORTH TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY. LOW LEVEL WILL RETURN TO
THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD IN
ADVANCE OF A MIDWEEK LONGWAVE UPPER TROF DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND WEST
TENNESSEE WILL KEEP EVENING CONVECTION AROUND THE TAF
SITES...WITH MKL HAVING A PERIOD OF ON STATION ACTIVITY. LATER
IN THE NIGHT CONFIDENT THAT IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP AND
PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.
LIGHT SOUTH/VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5-9 KTS AFTER 03/18Z.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$






  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMRX 030130
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
930 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
AFFECTING THE AREA...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. WILL
RAISE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT ALL BUT
SOUTH ZONES. WILL ALSO TWEAK TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. UPDATE OUT
SOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             70  90  70  93 /  50  30  20  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  69  89  68  91 /  60  20  20  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       69  89  67  91 /  60  20  20  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              66  87  61  89 /  60  10  20  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW



000
FXUS64 KMRX 030130
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
930 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
AFFECTING THE AREA...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. WILL
RAISE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT ALL BUT
SOUTH ZONES. WILL ALSO TWEAK TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. UPDATE OUT
SOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             70  90  70  93 /  50  30  20  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  69  89  68  91 /  60  20  20  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       69  89  67  91 /  60  20  20  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              66  87  61  89 /  60  10  20  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOHX 030029
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
729 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
STRONGER STORMS NOW IN EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE/PLATEAU WITH
STRONGEST WINDS CURRENTLY IN EASTERN WHITE COUNTY WHERE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT. CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL
OVER EASTERN AREAS AND PLATEAU BUT HAVE WARMED A LITTLE THROUGH
CENTRAL MIDDLE TENNESSEE. A NEW CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN
WEST TENNESSEE JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE AND RIGHT ALONG
SURFACE FRONT. AM EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO STAY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 ONCE IT MOVES INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AFTER 03Z. AIR
MASS OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINS WARM AND UNSTABLE AND
HAS A LOT MORE TO OFFER IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY THAN THE AIR MASS
OVER NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WHICH HAS ALREADY BEEN WORKED OVER
PRETTY GOOD.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 030029
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
729 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
STRONGER STORMS NOW IN EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE/PLATEAU WITH
STRONGEST WINDS CURRENTLY IN EASTERN WHITE COUNTY WHERE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT. CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL
OVER EASTERN AREAS AND PLATEAU BUT HAVE WARMED A LITTLE THROUGH
CENTRAL MIDDLE TENNESSEE. A NEW CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN
WEST TENNESSEE JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE AND RIGHT ALONG
SURFACE FRONT. AM EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO STAY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 ONCE IT MOVES INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AFTER 03Z. AIR
MASS OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINS WARM AND UNSTABLE AND
HAS A LOT MORE TO OFFER IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY THAN THE AIR MASS
OVER NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WHICH HAS ALREADY BEEN WORKED OVER
PRETTY GOOD.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KMEG 022342
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
642 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY WAS NOTED THIS EVENING ACROSS WEST
TENNESSEE INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HAS INITIATED THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
STORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS
WHICH MAY INCREASE THE SHORT TERM RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AS THE
AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST...CHARACTERIZED BY MID 70S DEWPOINTS
AND PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE FORCED
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD BY ONGOING CONVECTION TOWARDS INTERSTATE 40
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THESE
AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY
DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS AND
ANALYSIS. NEW GRIDS AND ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM A DECAYING NOCTURNAL MCS OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU. THIS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DELINEATED THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WAS SOUTHEAST
OF A FOREST CITY AR... TO MEMPHIS TO DYERSBURG TN LINE AT 3 PM.
BEST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WAS NOTED OVER NORTH MS... THIS WILL BE
THE AREA MOST FAVORED FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY EVENING.

WHILE THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER NORTH MS THIS EVENING...
MODELS DEPICT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM FORMATION OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE IMMEDIATE UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL... GIVEN THE COOL BUBBLE HIGH FROM THIS MORNING/S MCS
OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU. IN ANY CASE...BUILDING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS
AND WEAKER ZONAL STEERING WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH.

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE
DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL SURFACE HEATING AND SUBTLE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HEAT INDICES THURSDAY LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLS OVER THE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN CONUS WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING AND STRONGER MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
DAYTIME RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MIDSOUTH. GFS MEX GUIDANCE TEMPS
APPEAR TOO WARM FOR THE PATTERN...PARTICULARLY IF PREFRONTAL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
PROVIDE A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN FOLLOWING THE MIDWEEK HEAT.

SUNDAY WILL SEE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOLLOW THE FRONT ON IT/S WAY TO
CENTRAL/SOUTH MS. DRIER AIR WILL EDGE IN FROM THE NORTH TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY. LOW LEVEL WILL RETURN TO
THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD IN
ADVANCE OF A MIDWEEK LONGWAVE UPPER TROF DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND WEST
TENNESSEE WILL KEEP EVENING CONVECTION AROUND THE TAF
SITES...WITH MKL HAVING A PERIOD OF ON STATION ACTIVITY. LATER
IN THE NIGHT CONFIDENT THAT IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP AND
PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.
LIGHT SOUTH/VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5-9 KTS AFTER 03/18Z.

JAB

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 022342
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
642 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY WAS NOTED THIS EVENING ACROSS WEST
TENNESSEE INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HAS INITIATED THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
STORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS
WHICH MAY INCREASE THE SHORT TERM RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AS THE
AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST...CHARACTERIZED BY MID 70S DEWPOINTS
AND PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE FORCED
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD BY ONGOING CONVECTION TOWARDS INTERSTATE 40
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THESE
AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY
DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS AND
ANALYSIS. NEW GRIDS AND ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM A DECAYING NOCTURNAL MCS OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU. THIS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DELINEATED THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WAS SOUTHEAST
OF A FOREST CITY AR... TO MEMPHIS TO DYERSBURG TN LINE AT 3 PM.
BEST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WAS NOTED OVER NORTH MS... THIS WILL BE
THE AREA MOST FAVORED FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY EVENING.

WHILE THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER NORTH MS THIS EVENING...
MODELS DEPICT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM FORMATION OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE IMMEDIATE UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL... GIVEN THE COOL BUBBLE HIGH FROM THIS MORNING/S MCS
OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU. IN ANY CASE...BUILDING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS
AND WEAKER ZONAL STEERING WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH.

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE
DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL SURFACE HEATING AND SUBTLE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HEAT INDICES THURSDAY LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLS OVER THE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN CONUS WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING AND STRONGER MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
DAYTIME RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MIDSOUTH. GFS MEX GUIDANCE TEMPS
APPEAR TOO WARM FOR THE PATTERN...PARTICULARLY IF PREFRONTAL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
PROVIDE A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN FOLLOWING THE MIDWEEK HEAT.

SUNDAY WILL SEE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOLLOW THE FRONT ON IT/S WAY TO
CENTRAL/SOUTH MS. DRIER AIR WILL EDGE IN FROM THE NORTH TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY. LOW LEVEL WILL RETURN TO
THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD IN
ADVANCE OF A MIDWEEK LONGWAVE UPPER TROF DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND WEST
TENNESSEE WILL KEEP EVENING CONVECTION AROUND THE TAF
SITES...WITH MKL HAVING A PERIOD OF ON STATION ACTIVITY. LATER
IN THE NIGHT CONFIDENT THAT IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP AND
PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.
LIGHT SOUTH/VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5-9 KTS AFTER 03/18Z.

JAB

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 022333
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
633 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
...POOR FLYING WEATHER IN AND OUT OF NASHVILLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AND CROSSVILLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALIGNED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. WET
MICROBURSTS HAVE BEEN COMMON ALONG THIS CORRIDOR OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH AND COPIOUS RAINFALLS
THAT HAVE REDUCED SURFACE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MID EVENING AT NASHVILLE BUT LIKELY TO
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE PLATEAU.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 022333
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
633 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
...POOR FLYING WEATHER IN AND OUT OF NASHVILLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AND CROSSVILLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALIGNED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. WET
MICROBURSTS HAVE BEEN COMMON ALONG THIS CORRIDOR OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH AND COPIOUS RAINFALLS
THAT HAVE REDUCED SURFACE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MID EVENING AT NASHVILLE BUT LIKELY TO
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE PLATEAU.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KMRX 022327
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
727 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA BEFORE
STALLING OUT. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA MAINLY TONIGHT. WILL CARRY TEMPO THUNDER AT BOTH TYS AND
TRI FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AND VCTS ALL SITES. HOW MUCH FOG
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON IF RAIN OCCURS AT
ANY GIVEN SITE. FOR NOW MOST CONFIDENT OF FOG AT TRI...SO WILL GO
AS LOW AS IFR VIS THERE. WILL INCLUDE SOME MVFR VIS IN FOG AT TYS
FOR NOW.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW



000
FXUS64 KMRX 022327
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
727 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA BEFORE
STALLING OUT. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA MAINLY TONIGHT. WILL CARRY TEMPO THUNDER AT BOTH TYS AND
TRI FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AND VCTS ALL SITES. HOW MUCH FOG
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON IF RAIN OCCURS AT
ANY GIVEN SITE. FOR NOW MOST CONFIDENT OF FOG AT TRI...SO WILL GO
AS LOW AS IFR VIS THERE. WILL INCLUDE SOME MVFR VIS IN FOG AT TYS
FOR NOW.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW



000
FXUS64 KMRX 022327
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
727 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA BEFORE
STALLING OUT. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA MAINLY TONIGHT. WILL CARRY TEMPO THUNDER AT BOTH TYS AND
TRI FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AND VCTS ALL SITES. HOW MUCH FOG
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON IF RAIN OCCURS AT
ANY GIVEN SITE. FOR NOW MOST CONFIDENT OF FOG AT TRI...SO WILL GO
AS LOW AS IFR VIS THERE. WILL INCLUDE SOME MVFR VIS IN FOG AT TYS
FOR NOW.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW



000
FXUS64 KMRX 022327
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
727 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA BEFORE
STALLING OUT. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA MAINLY TONIGHT. WILL CARRY TEMPO THUNDER AT BOTH TYS AND
TRI FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AND VCTS ALL SITES. HOW MUCH FOG
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON IF RAIN OCCURS AT
ANY GIVEN SITE. FOR NOW MOST CONFIDENT OF FOG AT TRI...SO WILL GO
AS LOW AS IFR VIS THERE. WILL INCLUDE SOME MVFR VIS IN FOG AT TYS
FOR NOW.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW



000
FXUS64 KMEG 022322
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
622 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM A DECAYING NOCTURNAL MCS OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU. THIS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DELINEATED THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WAS SOUTHEAST
OF A FOREST CITY AR... TO MEMPHIS TO DYERSBURG TN LINE AT 3 PM.
BEST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WAS NOTED OVER NORTH MS... THIS WILL BE
THE AREA MOST FAVORED FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY EVENING.

WHILE THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER NORTH MS THIS EVENING...
MODELS DEPICT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM FORMATION OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE IMMEDIATE UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL... GIVEN THE COOL BUBBLE HIGH FROM THIS MORNING/S MCS
OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU. IN ANY CASE...BUILDING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS
AND WEAKER ZONAL STEERING WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH.

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE
DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL SURFACE HEATING AND SUBTLE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HEAT INDICES THURSDAY LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLS OVER THE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN CONUS WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING AND STRONGER MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
DAYTIME RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MIDSOUTH. GFS MEX GUIDANCE TEMPS
APPEAR TOO WARM FOR THE PATTERN...PARTICULARLY IF PREFRONTAL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
PROVIDE A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN FOLLOWING THE MIDWEEK HEAT.

SUNDAY WILL SEE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOLLOW THE FRONT ON IT/S WAY TO
CENTRAL/SOUTH MS. DRIER AIR WILL EDGE IN FROM THE NORTH TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY. LOW LEVEL WILL RETURN TO
THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD IN
ADVANCE OF A MIDWEEK LONGWAVE UPPER TROF DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND WEST
TENNESSEE WILL KEEP EVENING CONVECTION AROUND THE TAF
SITES...WITH MKL HAVING A PERIOD OF ON STATION ACTIVITY. LATER
IN THE NIGHT CONFIDENT THAT IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP AND
PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.
LIGHT SOUTH/VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5-9 KTS AFTER 03/18Z.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 022314
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
614 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
UPDATED ZONES TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN AND INCREASE POPS THROUGH MID
EVENING AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ALONG INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR WITH SEVERAL MERGERS TAKING PLACE ALONG WITH INTERACTION
AMONG OUTFLOWS TRIGGERING NEW DEVELOPMENT. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN
ARE FALLING OUT OF THESE STORMS WITH CREEKS AND STREAMS FILLING UP
QUICKLY ALONG WITH PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. COLD FRONT DOWN
THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE WITH SHORT
WAVE DOWN THROUGH EASTERN ARKANSAS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 022314
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
614 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
UPDATED ZONES TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN AND INCREASE POPS THROUGH MID
EVENING AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ALONG INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR WITH SEVERAL MERGERS TAKING PLACE ALONG WITH INTERACTION
AMONG OUTFLOWS TRIGGERING NEW DEVELOPMENT. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN
ARE FALLING OUT OF THESE STORMS WITH CREEKS AND STREAMS FILLING UP
QUICKLY ALONG WITH PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. COLD FRONT DOWN
THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE WITH SHORT
WAVE DOWN THROUGH EASTERN ARKANSAS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KMEG 022015
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
315 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM A DECAYING NOCTURNAL MCS OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU. THIS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DELINEATED THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WAS SOUTHEAST
OF A FOREST CITY AR... TO MEMPHIS TO DYERSBURG TN LINE AT 3 PM.
BEST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WAS NOTED OVER NORTH MS... THIS WILL BE
THE AREA MOST FAVORED FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY EVENING.

WHILE THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER NORTH MS THIS EVENING...
MODELS DEPICT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM FORMATION OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE IMMEDIATE UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL... GIVEN THE COOL BUBBLE HIGH FROM THIS MORNING/S MCS
OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU. IN ANY CASE...BUILDING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS
AND WEAKER ZONAL STEERING WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH.

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE
DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL SURFACE HEATING AND SUBTLE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HEAT INDICES THURSDAY LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLS OVER THE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN CONUS WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING AND STRONGER MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
DAYTIME RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MIDSOUTH. GFS MEX GUIDANCE TEMPS
APPEAR TOO WARM FOR THE PATTERN...PARTICULARLY IF PREFRONTAL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
PROVIDE A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN FOLLOWING THE MIDWEEK HEAT.

SUNDAY WILL SEE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOLLOW THE FRONT ON IT/S WAY TO
CENTRAL/SOUTH MS. DRIER AIR WILL EDGE IN FROM THE NORTH TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY. LOW LEVEL WILL RETURN TO
THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD IN
ADVANCE OF A MIDWEEK LONGWAVE UPPER TROF DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHT/S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHRA/S WITH SOME
EMBEDDED VCTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MEM. THUS WILL KEEP VCTS IN AT
TUP AND REINTRODUCE MENTION AT MEM/MKL AROUND AFTER 02/19Z. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO FOG AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. S/SW WINDS BETWEEN 6-10 KTS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AFTER 03/00Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 022015
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
315 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM A DECAYING NOCTURNAL MCS OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU. THIS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DELINEATED THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WAS SOUTHEAST
OF A FOREST CITY AR... TO MEMPHIS TO DYERSBURG TN LINE AT 3 PM.
BEST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WAS NOTED OVER NORTH MS... THIS WILL BE
THE AREA MOST FAVORED FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY EVENING.

WHILE THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER NORTH MS THIS EVENING...
MODELS DEPICT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM FORMATION OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE IMMEDIATE UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL... GIVEN THE COOL BUBBLE HIGH FROM THIS MORNING/S MCS
OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU. IN ANY CASE...BUILDING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS
AND WEAKER ZONAL STEERING WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH.

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE
DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL SURFACE HEATING AND SUBTLE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HEAT INDICES THURSDAY LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLS OVER THE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN CONUS WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING AND STRONGER MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
DAYTIME RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MIDSOUTH. GFS MEX GUIDANCE TEMPS
APPEAR TOO WARM FOR THE PATTERN...PARTICULARLY IF PREFRONTAL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
PROVIDE A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN FOLLOWING THE MIDWEEK HEAT.

SUNDAY WILL SEE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOLLOW THE FRONT ON IT/S WAY TO
CENTRAL/SOUTH MS. DRIER AIR WILL EDGE IN FROM THE NORTH TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY. LOW LEVEL WILL RETURN TO
THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD IN
ADVANCE OF A MIDWEEK LONGWAVE UPPER TROF DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHT/S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHRA/S WITH SOME
EMBEDDED VCTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MEM. THUS WILL KEEP VCTS IN AT
TUP AND REINTRODUCE MENTION AT MEM/MKL AROUND AFTER 02/19Z. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO FOG AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. S/SW WINDS BETWEEN 6-10 KTS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AFTER 03/00Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 022004
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
304 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...AREA RADARS SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
OUR MOIST MID-STATE ATMOSPHERE, AND SOME AREAS ARE GETTING SOME
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WILL KEEP LIKELIHOOD FOR STORMS RUNNING IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS TO FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING POP-UP
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE KEEPS US PRETTY TOASTY, WITH
HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BOUNCING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, AND MAX AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
PUSHING TO AROUND 100 DEGREES (UGH!).

.LONG TERM...MODELS ALSO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS OVER THE WEEKEND,
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN PROBABLY IN THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING TIME PERIOD. TIMING IS STILL A BIT OF AN
ISSUE WITH A SYSTEM THAT FAR IN THE FUTURE, BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIKELY POPS GET INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST
AT SOME POINT FOR AT LEAST A PART OF OUR WEEKEND FORECAST.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, PRODUCING NORTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE MID STATE AND BRINGING IN SOME LOWER DEW POINTS. BY NEXT
MONDAY, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO TRADE MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S, FOR MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      72  91  71  94 /  40  20  20  20
CLARKSVILLE    69  90  68  93 /  20  20  10  20
CROSSVILLE     67  86  65  87 /  50  20  20  20
COLUMBIA       71  92  70  94 /  40  40  20  30
LAWRENCEBURG   69  92  69  94 /  40  40  20  40
WAVERLY        69  91  69  94 /  30  40  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 022004
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
304 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...AREA RADARS SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
OUR MOIST MID-STATE ATMOSPHERE, AND SOME AREAS ARE GETTING SOME
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WILL KEEP LIKELIHOOD FOR STORMS RUNNING IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS TO FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING POP-UP
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE KEEPS US PRETTY TOASTY, WITH
HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BOUNCING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, AND MAX AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
PUSHING TO AROUND 100 DEGREES (UGH!).

.LONG TERM...MODELS ALSO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS OVER THE WEEKEND,
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN PROBABLY IN THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING TIME PERIOD. TIMING IS STILL A BIT OF AN
ISSUE WITH A SYSTEM THAT FAR IN THE FUTURE, BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIKELY POPS GET INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST
AT SOME POINT FOR AT LEAST A PART OF OUR WEEKEND FORECAST.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, PRODUCING NORTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE MID STATE AND BRINGING IN SOME LOWER DEW POINTS. BY NEXT
MONDAY, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO TRADE MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S, FOR MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      72  91  71  94 /  40  20  20  20
CLARKSVILLE    69  90  68  93 /  20  20  10  20
CROSSVILLE     67  86  65  87 /  50  20  20  20
COLUMBIA       71  92  70  94 /  40  40  20  30
LAWRENCEBURG   69  92  69  94 /  40  40  20  40
WAVERLY        69  91  69  94 /  30  40  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KMRX 021911
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FINALLY FORMING ALONG SEVERAL BOUNDARIES AND
TERRAIN FEATURES AT MID AFTERNOON. STAYED WITH THE LIKELY
PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EASTERN LAKES
AND MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH DROPPING BACK TO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY
TONIGHT. A "COLD" FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT IT WON`T MAKE IT VERY
FAR LIKELY STALLING IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
THEN WASHING OUT FOR LATE WEEK. THEREFORE...MAINTAINED SOME CHANCE
POPS FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF AND
SOUTH OF THIS WEAK FRONT. STAYED CLOSE TO NEARLY IDENTICAL MIN TEMP
GUIDANCE TONIGHT WHILE OPTING FOR THE MIDDLE GROUND FOR MAX TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATE SUMMER WARMTH
WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION MOST DAYS...BUT A WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL DECREASE A LITTLE
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WORK WEEK FOLLOWING THE FROPA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             71  90  70  93 /  50  30  20  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  70  89  68  91 /  50  20  20  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       70  89  67  91 /  50  20  20  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              67  87  61  89 /  50  10  20  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 021911
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FINALLY FORMING ALONG SEVERAL BOUNDARIES AND
TERRAIN FEATURES AT MID AFTERNOON. STAYED WITH THE LIKELY
PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EASTERN LAKES
AND MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH DROPPING BACK TO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY
TONIGHT. A "COLD" FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT IT WON`T MAKE IT VERY
FAR LIKELY STALLING IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
THEN WASHING OUT FOR LATE WEEK. THEREFORE...MAINTAINED SOME CHANCE
POPS FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF AND
SOUTH OF THIS WEAK FRONT. STAYED CLOSE TO NEARLY IDENTICAL MIN TEMP
GUIDANCE TONIGHT WHILE OPTING FOR THE MIDDLE GROUND FOR MAX TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATE SUMMER WARMTH
WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION MOST DAYS...BUT A WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL DECREASE A LITTLE
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WORK WEEK FOLLOWING THE FROPA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             71  90  70  93 /  50  30  20  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  70  89  68  91 /  50  20  20  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       70  89  67  91 /  50  20  20  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              67  87  61  89 /  50  10  20  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 021911
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FINALLY FORMING ALONG SEVERAL BOUNDARIES AND
TERRAIN FEATURES AT MID AFTERNOON. STAYED WITH THE LIKELY
PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EASTERN LAKES
AND MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH DROPPING BACK TO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY
TONIGHT. A "COLD" FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT IT WON`T MAKE IT VERY
FAR LIKELY STALLING IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
THEN WASHING OUT FOR LATE WEEK. THEREFORE...MAINTAINED SOME CHANCE
POPS FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF AND
SOUTH OF THIS WEAK FRONT. STAYED CLOSE TO NEARLY IDENTICAL MIN TEMP
GUIDANCE TONIGHT WHILE OPTING FOR THE MIDDLE GROUND FOR MAX TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATE SUMMER WARMTH
WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION MOST DAYS...BUT A WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL DECREASE A LITTLE
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WORK WEEK FOLLOWING THE FROPA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             71  90  70  93 /  50  30  20  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  70  89  68  91 /  50  20  20  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       70  89  67  91 /  50  20  20  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              67  87  61  89 /  50  10  20  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 021911
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FINALLY FORMING ALONG SEVERAL BOUNDARIES AND
TERRAIN FEATURES AT MID AFTERNOON. STAYED WITH THE LIKELY
PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EASTERN LAKES
AND MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH DROPPING BACK TO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY
TONIGHT. A "COLD" FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT IT WON`T MAKE IT VERY
FAR LIKELY STALLING IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
THEN WASHING OUT FOR LATE WEEK. THEREFORE...MAINTAINED SOME CHANCE
POPS FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF AND
SOUTH OF THIS WEAK FRONT. STAYED CLOSE TO NEARLY IDENTICAL MIN TEMP
GUIDANCE TONIGHT WHILE OPTING FOR THE MIDDLE GROUND FOR MAX TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATE SUMMER WARMTH
WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION MOST DAYS...BUT A WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL DECREASE A LITTLE
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WORK WEEK FOLLOWING THE FROPA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             71  90  70  93 /  50  30  20  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  70  89  68  91 /  50  20  20  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       70  89  67  91 /  50  20  20  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              67  87  61  89 /  50  10  20  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 021755
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
155 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...CONVECTION A LITTLE TIMID TO GET FIRED UP JUST YET BUT
STARTING TO SEE A NICE AREA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CELLS POPPING
OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WITH MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MAIN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY AND WESTERN TENNESSEE.
PUSHED BACK TIMING OF CONVECTION AGAIN FOR THE TERMINALS TO AROUND
22Z WITH VICINITY REMARKS AND THEN FROM AROUND 00-05Z FOR THE MAIN
ACTION WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALLOWED FOR SOME FOG AT TRI
BUT TYS AND CHA COULD SEE SOME FOG DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS. LOOKS LIKE VFR CONDITIONS FROM AROUND 13Z ONWARD AT THE
AIRPORTS WITH ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION OCCURRING MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 021755
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
155 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...CONVECTION A LITTLE TIMID TO GET FIRED UP JUST YET BUT
STARTING TO SEE A NICE AREA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CELLS POPPING
OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WITH MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MAIN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY AND WESTERN TENNESSEE.
PUSHED BACK TIMING OF CONVECTION AGAIN FOR THE TERMINALS TO AROUND
22Z WITH VICINITY REMARKS AND THEN FROM AROUND 00-05Z FOR THE MAIN
ACTION WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALLOWED FOR SOME FOG AT TRI
BUT TYS AND CHA COULD SEE SOME FOG DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS. LOOKS LIKE VFR CONDITIONS FROM AROUND 13Z ONWARD AT THE
AIRPORTS WITH ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION OCCURRING MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMEG 021736
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1236 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S. THERE IS NO RAIN IN
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME BUT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR CHICAGO TO
NEAR KANSAS CITY MISSOURI TO NEAR AMARILLO TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY AND WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVER EXTREME NORTHERN
SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL APART BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. ON THURSDAY DAYTIME
HEATING MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH DRY WEATHER AGAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. ON SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA SO THERE WILL A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE
REGION WITH RAIN ENDING DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL START TO LIFT
NORTH SOME ON MONDAY SO THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHT/S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHRA/S WITH SOME
EMBEDDED VCTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MEM. THUS WILL KEEP VCTS IN AT
TUP AND REINTRODUCE MENTION AT MEM/MKL AROUND AFTER 02/19Z. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO FOG AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. S/SW WINDS BETWEEN 6-10 KTS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AFTER 03/00Z.

CJC
&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 021736
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1236 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S. THERE IS NO RAIN IN
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME BUT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR CHICAGO TO
NEAR KANSAS CITY MISSOURI TO NEAR AMARILLO TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY AND WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVER EXTREME NORTHERN
SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL APART BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. ON THURSDAY DAYTIME
HEATING MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH DRY WEATHER AGAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. ON SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA SO THERE WILL A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE
REGION WITH RAIN ENDING DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL START TO LIFT
NORTH SOME ON MONDAY SO THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHT/S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHRA/S WITH SOME
EMBEDDED VCTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MEM. THUS WILL KEEP VCTS IN AT
TUP AND REINTRODUCE MENTION AT MEM/MKL AROUND AFTER 02/19Z. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO FOG AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. S/SW WINDS BETWEEN 6-10 KTS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AFTER 03/00Z.

CJC
&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 021736
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1236 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S. THERE IS NO RAIN IN
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME BUT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR CHICAGO TO
NEAR KANSAS CITY MISSOURI TO NEAR AMARILLO TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY AND WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVER EXTREME NORTHERN
SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL APART BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. ON THURSDAY DAYTIME
HEATING MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH DRY WEATHER AGAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. ON SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA SO THERE WILL A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE
REGION WITH RAIN ENDING DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL START TO LIFT
NORTH SOME ON MONDAY SO THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHT/S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHRA/S WITH SOME
EMBEDDED VCTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MEM. THUS WILL KEEP VCTS IN AT
TUP AND REINTRODUCE MENTION AT MEM/MKL AROUND AFTER 02/19Z. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO FOG AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. S/SW WINDS BETWEEN 6-10 KTS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AFTER 03/00Z.

CJC
&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 021736
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1236 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S. THERE IS NO RAIN IN
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME BUT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR CHICAGO TO
NEAR KANSAS CITY MISSOURI TO NEAR AMARILLO TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY AND WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVER EXTREME NORTHERN
SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL APART BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. ON THURSDAY DAYTIME
HEATING MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH DRY WEATHER AGAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. ON SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA SO THERE WILL A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE
REGION WITH RAIN ENDING DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL START TO LIFT
NORTH SOME ON MONDAY SO THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHT/S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHRA/S WITH SOME
EMBEDDED VCTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MEM. THUS WILL KEEP VCTS IN AT
TUP AND REINTRODUCE MENTION AT MEM/MKL AROUND AFTER 02/19Z. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO FOG AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. S/SW WINDS BETWEEN 6-10 KTS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AFTER 03/00Z.

CJC
&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 021732
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1232 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...GIVEN THE DEEP INSTABILITY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH, HAVE
INCLUDE TEMPO TSRA IN THE TAF`S. ISOLATED CELLS ARE ALREADY
DEVELOPING, AND ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
WARM. OVERNIGHT, LOOK FOR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT CKV, WHERE DEW POINT
SPREADS WILL BE SMALLEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...VFR WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING SSW
WINDS...UP TO 10KT. AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL MEET UP WITH
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. FOR NOW...GOING
WITH VCTS IN TAFS. MORE SPECIFIC TEMPO GROUPS CAN BE ADDED WITH
THE 18Z UPDATES. OUTSIDE THE TSRA...VFR WILL PREVAIL INTO THE
EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...WITH
CSV DROPPING TO IFR AFTER 10Z.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTMS CHANCES ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME STRONG TSTMS THRU THE EARLY EVENING HRS TONIGHT...WX PATTERN
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WORK WEEK...TEMPS.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHWR/TSTM COMPLEX CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY REGION FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS
TO MID STATE`S WX AS PRESS TIME APPROACHES... INCLUDING POTENTIAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT WOULD PROVIDE FOR A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION
CLOSER TO THE MID STATE. HOWEVER...CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE MODEL RUNS
SHOWING THAT THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD STAY N OF MID STATE
WITH THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ISO TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS NRN
AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE THRU THE MID MORNING HRS ASSOCIATED
WITH ABOVE MENTIONED POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
CAN NOT ALSO TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS
APPROACHING THE TN/KY BORDER REGION THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
HRS ALSO. EXPECT SHWRS/TSTMS TO BECOME SCT/NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MID STATE AS PASSING SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH COPIOUS ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL OF NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE.
WOULD NOT BE ALSO SURPRISED FOR SOME STORMS TO REACH AT LEAST STRONG
THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON ALSO WITH GUSTY WIND...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SMALL HAIL. WILL ADDRESS THIS CONCERN ALSO
IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUANCE. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MOCLDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S N TO LOWER 90S S...MID 80S PLATEAU...A
CONTINUANCE OF THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMP TREND WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING
THE LAST FEW DAYS. REALLY CAN NOT ARGUE AGAINST CONSENSUS NAM/GFS MOS
GUIDANCE VALUES FOR ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY...AND WILL THUS
LEAN ACCORDINGLY.

AS FOR TONIGHT...WEAK SFC FRONT TO OUR N WILL SAG SWD AND INTO AT LEAST
SRN PORTIONS OF MID STATE...IF NOT TOTALLY PUSHING THRU MID STATE...BY
EARLY WED MORNING. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PROMINENT AT LEAST ACROSS
OR JUST N OF THE MID STATE RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGES BEING POSSIBLE. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS DURING
THE EVENING HRS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HRS. MAY EXPERIENCE SOME PTCDLY CLDY SKIES BY THE MORNING HRS TOO...WITH
LOWS MAINLY AROUND 70...UPPER 60S PLATEAU.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...ANY WAY YOU SLICE IT...RIDGING INFLUENCES
SFC/ALOFT ALONG WITH A CONTINUANCE OF PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTERACTING
WITH DIURNAL INFLUENCES AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...SHOULD RESULT
IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR THE MID STATE THRU FRI NIGHT WITH
MAINLY LATE MORNING THRU EARLY EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS. WILL LEAN A LITTLE
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM/EURO MOS VALUES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...
BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO EVEN MID 90S...UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S...UPPER 60S PLATEAU.

ANOTHER RATHER WEAK SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THRU THE MID STATE
SOMETIME ON SAT ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSAGE RESULTING IN SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE MID STATE. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS HERE...AND WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS SOLUTION...IN WHICH ALL
SHOW THAT INFLUENCES FROM A MIDWEST SFC 1020MB HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN
WILL BEGIN INFLUENCING THE AREAS WEATHER RESULTING IN A TREND BACK TOWARD
TEMPS BEING MORE AROUND SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES INCLUDING A DECREASED
OVERALL CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS TOO...AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

31

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




000
FXUS64 KOHX 021732
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1232 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...GIVEN THE DEEP INSTABILITY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH, HAVE
INCLUDE TEMPO TSRA IN THE TAF`S. ISOLATED CELLS ARE ALREADY
DEVELOPING, AND ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
WARM. OVERNIGHT, LOOK FOR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT CKV, WHERE DEW POINT
SPREADS WILL BE SMALLEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...VFR WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING SSW
WINDS...UP TO 10KT. AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL MEET UP WITH
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. FOR NOW...GOING
WITH VCTS IN TAFS. MORE SPECIFIC TEMPO GROUPS CAN BE ADDED WITH
THE 18Z UPDATES. OUTSIDE THE TSRA...VFR WILL PREVAIL INTO THE
EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...WITH
CSV DROPPING TO IFR AFTER 10Z.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTMS CHANCES ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME STRONG TSTMS THRU THE EARLY EVENING HRS TONIGHT...WX PATTERN
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WORK WEEK...TEMPS.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHWR/TSTM COMPLEX CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY REGION FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS
TO MID STATE`S WX AS PRESS TIME APPROACHES... INCLUDING POTENTIAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT WOULD PROVIDE FOR A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION
CLOSER TO THE MID STATE. HOWEVER...CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE MODEL RUNS
SHOWING THAT THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD STAY N OF MID STATE
WITH THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ISO TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS NRN
AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE THRU THE MID MORNING HRS ASSOCIATED
WITH ABOVE MENTIONED POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
CAN NOT ALSO TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS
APPROACHING THE TN/KY BORDER REGION THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
HRS ALSO. EXPECT SHWRS/TSTMS TO BECOME SCT/NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MID STATE AS PASSING SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH COPIOUS ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL OF NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE.
WOULD NOT BE ALSO SURPRISED FOR SOME STORMS TO REACH AT LEAST STRONG
THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON ALSO WITH GUSTY WIND...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SMALL HAIL. WILL ADDRESS THIS CONCERN ALSO
IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUANCE. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MOCLDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S N TO LOWER 90S S...MID 80S PLATEAU...A
CONTINUANCE OF THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMP TREND WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING
THE LAST FEW DAYS. REALLY CAN NOT ARGUE AGAINST CONSENSUS NAM/GFS MOS
GUIDANCE VALUES FOR ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY...AND WILL THUS
LEAN ACCORDINGLY.

AS FOR TONIGHT...WEAK SFC FRONT TO OUR N WILL SAG SWD AND INTO AT LEAST
SRN PORTIONS OF MID STATE...IF NOT TOTALLY PUSHING THRU MID STATE...BY
EARLY WED MORNING. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PROMINENT AT LEAST ACROSS
OR JUST N OF THE MID STATE RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGES BEING POSSIBLE. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS DURING
THE EVENING HRS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HRS. MAY EXPERIENCE SOME PTCDLY CLDY SKIES BY THE MORNING HRS TOO...WITH
LOWS MAINLY AROUND 70...UPPER 60S PLATEAU.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...ANY WAY YOU SLICE IT...RIDGING INFLUENCES
SFC/ALOFT ALONG WITH A CONTINUANCE OF PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTERACTING
WITH DIURNAL INFLUENCES AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...SHOULD RESULT
IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR THE MID STATE THRU FRI NIGHT WITH
MAINLY LATE MORNING THRU EARLY EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS. WILL LEAN A LITTLE
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM/EURO MOS VALUES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...
BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO EVEN MID 90S...UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S...UPPER 60S PLATEAU.

ANOTHER RATHER WEAK SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THRU THE MID STATE
SOMETIME ON SAT ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSAGE RESULTING IN SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE MID STATE. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS HERE...AND WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS SOLUTION...IN WHICH ALL
SHOW THAT INFLUENCES FROM A MIDWEST SFC 1020MB HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN
WILL BEGIN INFLUENCING THE AREAS WEATHER RESULTING IN A TREND BACK TOWARD
TEMPS BEING MORE AROUND SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES INCLUDING A DECREASED
OVERALL CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS TOO...AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

31

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KMRX 021419
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1019 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BUT TWEAKED TIMING OF CONVECTION
BACK A BIT...PREFERRING MIDDLE TO LATER AFTERNOON RATHER THAN A MID
DAY INITIATION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ADVANCING EAST ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT THE CURRENT HOUR AND THE
ACTION MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 17-19Z. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR STORMS BUT SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE. MAX
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             92  71  92  70 /  50  40  30  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  89  69  90  68 /  60  40  30  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       89  69  91  67 /  60  40  30  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              88  67  88  61 /  60  50  20  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 021419
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1019 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BUT TWEAKED TIMING OF CONVECTION
BACK A BIT...PREFERRING MIDDLE TO LATER AFTERNOON RATHER THAN A MID
DAY INITIATION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ADVANCING EAST ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT THE CURRENT HOUR AND THE
ACTION MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 17-19Z. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR STORMS BUT SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE. MAX
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             92  71  92  70 /  50  40  30  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  89  69  90  68 /  60  40  30  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       89  69  91  67 /  60  40  30  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              88  67  88  61 /  60  50  20  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMEG 021146
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
646 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S. THERE IS NO RAIN IN
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME BUT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR CHICAGO TO
NEAR KANSAS CITY MISSOURI TO NEAR AMARILLO TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY AND WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVER EXTREME NORTHERN
SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL APART BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. ON THURSDAY DAYTIME
HEATING MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH DRY WEATHER AGAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. ON SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA SO THERE WILL A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE
REGION WITH RAIN ENDING DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL START TO LIFT
NORTH SOME ON MONDAY SO THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO A MVFR STRATUS DECK OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. MEANWHILE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL WORK SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS/SOUTHERN MISSOURI
ACROSS KJBR...KMEM AND KMKL THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH TEMPOS
FOR TSRAS AT THOSE LOCATIONS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDS
WITH VCSH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LINE SHOULD FALL APART BEFORE
REACHING TUPELO SO WENT VCTS THERE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. LIGHT
WINDS...SOME CLEARING AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME FOG LATER TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SW AROUND 10 KTS TODAY
DIMINISHING TO LIGHT THIS EVENING.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 021146
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
646 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S. THERE IS NO RAIN IN
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME BUT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR CHICAGO TO
NEAR KANSAS CITY MISSOURI TO NEAR AMARILLO TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY AND WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVER EXTREME NORTHERN
SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL APART BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. ON THURSDAY DAYTIME
HEATING MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH DRY WEATHER AGAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. ON SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA SO THERE WILL A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE
REGION WITH RAIN ENDING DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL START TO LIFT
NORTH SOME ON MONDAY SO THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO A MVFR STRATUS DECK OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. MEANWHILE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL WORK SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS/SOUTHERN MISSOURI
ACROSS KJBR...KMEM AND KMKL THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH TEMPOS
FOR TSRAS AT THOSE LOCATIONS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDS
WITH VCSH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LINE SHOULD FALL APART BEFORE
REACHING TUPELO SO WENT VCTS THERE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. LIGHT
WINDS...SOME CLEARING AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME FOG LATER TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SW AROUND 10 KTS TODAY
DIMINISHING TO LIGHT THIS EVENING.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 021146
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
646 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S. THERE IS NO RAIN IN
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME BUT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR CHICAGO TO
NEAR KANSAS CITY MISSOURI TO NEAR AMARILLO TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY AND WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVER EXTREME NORTHERN
SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL APART BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. ON THURSDAY DAYTIME
HEATING MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH DRY WEATHER AGAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. ON SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA SO THERE WILL A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE
REGION WITH RAIN ENDING DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL START TO LIFT
NORTH SOME ON MONDAY SO THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO A MVFR STRATUS DECK OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. MEANWHILE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL WORK SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS/SOUTHERN MISSOURI
ACROSS KJBR...KMEM AND KMKL THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH TEMPOS
FOR TSRAS AT THOSE LOCATIONS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDS
WITH VCSH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LINE SHOULD FALL APART BEFORE
REACHING TUPELO SO WENT VCTS THERE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. LIGHT
WINDS...SOME CLEARING AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME FOG LATER TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SW AROUND 10 KTS TODAY
DIMINISHING TO LIGHT THIS EVENING.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 021146
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
646 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S. THERE IS NO RAIN IN
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME BUT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR CHICAGO TO
NEAR KANSAS CITY MISSOURI TO NEAR AMARILLO TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY AND WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVER EXTREME NORTHERN
SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL APART BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. ON THURSDAY DAYTIME
HEATING MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH DRY WEATHER AGAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. ON SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA SO THERE WILL A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE
REGION WITH RAIN ENDING DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL START TO LIFT
NORTH SOME ON MONDAY SO THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO A MVFR STRATUS DECK OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. MEANWHILE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL WORK SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS/SOUTHERN MISSOURI
ACROSS KJBR...KMEM AND KMKL THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH TEMPOS
FOR TSRAS AT THOSE LOCATIONS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDS
WITH VCSH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LINE SHOULD FALL APART BEFORE
REACHING TUPELO SO WENT VCTS THERE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. LIGHT
WINDS...SOME CLEARING AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME FOG LATER TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SW AROUND 10 KTS TODAY
DIMINISHING TO LIGHT THIS EVENING.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 021130
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
630 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...VFR WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING SSW
WINDS...UP TO 10KT. AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL MEET UP WITH
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. FOR NOW...GOING
WITH VCTS IN TAFS. MORE SPECIFIC TEMPO GROUPS CAN BE ADDED WITH
THE 18Z UPDATES. OUTSIDE THE TSRA...VFR WILL PREVAIL INTO THE
EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...WITH
CSV DROPPING TO IFR AFTER 10Z.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTMS CHANCES ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME STRONG TSTMS THRU THE EARLY EVENING HRS TONIGHT...WX PATTERN
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WORK WEEK...TEMPS.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHWR/TSTM COMPLEX CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY REGION FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS
TO MID STATE`S WX AS PRESS TIME APPROACHES... INCLUDING POTENTIAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT WOULD PROVIDE FOR A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION
CLOSER TO THE MID STATE. HOWEVER...CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE MODEL RUNS
SHOWING THAT THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD STAY N OF MID STATE
WITH THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ISO TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS NRN
AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE THRU THE MID MORNING HRS ASSOCIATED
WITH ABOVE MENTIONED POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
CAN NOT ALSO TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS
APPROACHING THE TN/KY BORDER REGION THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
HRS ALSO. EXPECT SHWRS/TSTMS TO BECOME SCT/NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MID STATE AS PASSING SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH COPIOUS ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL OF NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE.
WOULD NOT BE ALSO SURPRISED FOR SOME STORMS TO REACH AT LEAST STRONG
THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON ALSO WITH GUSTY WIND...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SMALL HAIL. WILL ADDRESS THIS CONCERN ALSO
IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUANCE. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MOCLDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S N TO LOWER 90S S...MID 80S PLATEAU...A
CONTINUANCE OF THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMP TREND WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING
THE LAST FEW DAYS. REALLY CAN NOT ARGUE AGAINST CONSENSUS NAM/GFS MOS
GUIDANCE VALUES FOR ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY...AND WILL THUS
LEAN ACCORDINGLY.

AS FOR TONIGHT...WEAK SFC FRONT TO OUR N WILL SAG SWD AND INTO AT LEAST
SRN PORTIONS OF MID STATE...IF NOT TOTALLY PUSHING THRU MID STATE...BY
EARLY WED MORNING. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PROMINENT AT LEAST ACROSS
OR JUST N OF THE MID STATE RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGES BEING POSSIBLE. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS DURING
THE EVENING HRS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HRS. MAY EXPERIENCE SOME PTCDLY CLDY SKIES BY THE MORNING HRS TOO...WITH
LOWS MAINLY AROUND 70...UPPER 60S PLATEAU.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...ANY WAY YOU SLICE IT...RIDGING INFLUENCES
SFC/ALOFT ALONG WITH A CONTINUANCE OF PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTERACTING
WITH DIURNAL INFLUENCES AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...SHOULD RESULT
IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR THE MID STATE THRU FRI NIGHT WITH
MAINLY LATE MORNING THRU EARLY EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS. WILL LEAN A LITTLE
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM/EURO MOS VALUES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...
BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO EVEN MID 90S...UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S...UPPER 60S PLATEAU.

ANOTHER RATHER WEAK SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THRU THE MID STATE
SOMETIME ON SAT ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSAGE RESULTING IN SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE MID STATE. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS HERE...AND WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS SOLUTION...IN WHICH ALL
SHOW THAT INFLUENCES FROM A MIDWEST SFC 1020MB HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN
WILL BEGIN INFLUENCING THE AREAS WEATHER RESULTING IN A TREND BACK TOWARD
TEMPS BEING MORE AROUND SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES INCLUDING A DECREASED
OVERALL CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS TOO...AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

31

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 021130
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
630 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...VFR WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING SSW
WINDS...UP TO 10KT. AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL MEET UP WITH
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. FOR NOW...GOING
WITH VCTS IN TAFS. MORE SPECIFIC TEMPO GROUPS CAN BE ADDED WITH
THE 18Z UPDATES. OUTSIDE THE TSRA...VFR WILL PREVAIL INTO THE
EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...WITH
CSV DROPPING TO IFR AFTER 10Z.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTMS CHANCES ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME STRONG TSTMS THRU THE EARLY EVENING HRS TONIGHT...WX PATTERN
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WORK WEEK...TEMPS.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHWR/TSTM COMPLEX CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY REGION FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS
TO MID STATE`S WX AS PRESS TIME APPROACHES... INCLUDING POTENTIAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT WOULD PROVIDE FOR A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION
CLOSER TO THE MID STATE. HOWEVER...CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE MODEL RUNS
SHOWING THAT THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD STAY N OF MID STATE
WITH THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ISO TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS NRN
AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE THRU THE MID MORNING HRS ASSOCIATED
WITH ABOVE MENTIONED POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
CAN NOT ALSO TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS
APPROACHING THE TN/KY BORDER REGION THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
HRS ALSO. EXPECT SHWRS/TSTMS TO BECOME SCT/NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MID STATE AS PASSING SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH COPIOUS ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL OF NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE.
WOULD NOT BE ALSO SURPRISED FOR SOME STORMS TO REACH AT LEAST STRONG
THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON ALSO WITH GUSTY WIND...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SMALL HAIL. WILL ADDRESS THIS CONCERN ALSO
IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUANCE. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MOCLDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S N TO LOWER 90S S...MID 80S PLATEAU...A
CONTINUANCE OF THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMP TREND WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING
THE LAST FEW DAYS. REALLY CAN NOT ARGUE AGAINST CONSENSUS NAM/GFS MOS
GUIDANCE VALUES FOR ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY...AND WILL THUS
LEAN ACCORDINGLY.

AS FOR TONIGHT...WEAK SFC FRONT TO OUR N WILL SAG SWD AND INTO AT LEAST
SRN PORTIONS OF MID STATE...IF NOT TOTALLY PUSHING THRU MID STATE...BY
EARLY WED MORNING. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PROMINENT AT LEAST ACROSS
OR JUST N OF THE MID STATE RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGES BEING POSSIBLE. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS DURING
THE EVENING HRS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HRS. MAY EXPERIENCE SOME PTCDLY CLDY SKIES BY THE MORNING HRS TOO...WITH
LOWS MAINLY AROUND 70...UPPER 60S PLATEAU.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...ANY WAY YOU SLICE IT...RIDGING INFLUENCES
SFC/ALOFT ALONG WITH A CONTINUANCE OF PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTERACTING
WITH DIURNAL INFLUENCES AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...SHOULD RESULT
IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR THE MID STATE THRU FRI NIGHT WITH
MAINLY LATE MORNING THRU EARLY EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS. WILL LEAN A LITTLE
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM/EURO MOS VALUES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...
BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO EVEN MID 90S...UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S...UPPER 60S PLATEAU.

ANOTHER RATHER WEAK SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THRU THE MID STATE
SOMETIME ON SAT ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSAGE RESULTING IN SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE MID STATE. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS HERE...AND WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS SOLUTION...IN WHICH ALL
SHOW THAT INFLUENCES FROM A MIDWEST SFC 1020MB HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN
WILL BEGIN INFLUENCING THE AREAS WEATHER RESULTING IN A TREND BACK TOWARD
TEMPS BEING MORE AROUND SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES INCLUDING A DECREASED
OVERALL CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS TOO...AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

31

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 021130
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
630 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...VFR WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING SSW
WINDS...UP TO 10KT. AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL MEET UP WITH
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. FOR NOW...GOING
WITH VCTS IN TAFS. MORE SPECIFIC TEMPO GROUPS CAN BE ADDED WITH
THE 18Z UPDATES. OUTSIDE THE TSRA...VFR WILL PREVAIL INTO THE
EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...WITH
CSV DROPPING TO IFR AFTER 10Z.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTMS CHANCES ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME STRONG TSTMS THRU THE EARLY EVENING HRS TONIGHT...WX PATTERN
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WORK WEEK...TEMPS.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHWR/TSTM COMPLEX CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY REGION FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS
TO MID STATE`S WX AS PRESS TIME APPROACHES... INCLUDING POTENTIAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT WOULD PROVIDE FOR A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION
CLOSER TO THE MID STATE. HOWEVER...CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE MODEL RUNS
SHOWING THAT THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD STAY N OF MID STATE
WITH THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ISO TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS NRN
AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE THRU THE MID MORNING HRS ASSOCIATED
WITH ABOVE MENTIONED POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
CAN NOT ALSO TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS
APPROACHING THE TN/KY BORDER REGION THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
HRS ALSO. EXPECT SHWRS/TSTMS TO BECOME SCT/NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MID STATE AS PASSING SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH COPIOUS ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL OF NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE.
WOULD NOT BE ALSO SURPRISED FOR SOME STORMS TO REACH AT LEAST STRONG
THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON ALSO WITH GUSTY WIND...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SMALL HAIL. WILL ADDRESS THIS CONCERN ALSO
IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUANCE. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MOCLDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S N TO LOWER 90S S...MID 80S PLATEAU...A
CONTINUANCE OF THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMP TREND WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING
THE LAST FEW DAYS. REALLY CAN NOT ARGUE AGAINST CONSENSUS NAM/GFS MOS
GUIDANCE VALUES FOR ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY...AND WILL THUS
LEAN ACCORDINGLY.

AS FOR TONIGHT...WEAK SFC FRONT TO OUR N WILL SAG SWD AND INTO AT LEAST
SRN PORTIONS OF MID STATE...IF NOT TOTALLY PUSHING THRU MID STATE...BY
EARLY WED MORNING. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PROMINENT AT LEAST ACROSS
OR JUST N OF THE MID STATE RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGES BEING POSSIBLE. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS DURING
THE EVENING HRS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HRS. MAY EXPERIENCE SOME PTCDLY CLDY SKIES BY THE MORNING HRS TOO...WITH
LOWS MAINLY AROUND 70...UPPER 60S PLATEAU.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...ANY WAY YOU SLICE IT...RIDGING INFLUENCES
SFC/ALOFT ALONG WITH A CONTINUANCE OF PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTERACTING
WITH DIURNAL INFLUENCES AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...SHOULD RESULT
IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR THE MID STATE THRU FRI NIGHT WITH
MAINLY LATE MORNING THRU EARLY EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS. WILL LEAN A LITTLE
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM/EURO MOS VALUES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...
BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO EVEN MID 90S...UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S...UPPER 60S PLATEAU.

ANOTHER RATHER WEAK SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THRU THE MID STATE
SOMETIME ON SAT ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSAGE RESULTING IN SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE MID STATE. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS HERE...AND WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS SOLUTION...IN WHICH ALL
SHOW THAT INFLUENCES FROM A MIDWEST SFC 1020MB HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN
WILL BEGIN INFLUENCING THE AREAS WEATHER RESULTING IN A TREND BACK TOWARD
TEMPS BEING MORE AROUND SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES INCLUDING A DECREASED
OVERALL CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS TOO...AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

31

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 021130
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
630 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...VFR WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING SSW
WINDS...UP TO 10KT. AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL MEET UP WITH
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. FOR NOW...GOING
WITH VCTS IN TAFS. MORE SPECIFIC TEMPO GROUPS CAN BE ADDED WITH
THE 18Z UPDATES. OUTSIDE THE TSRA...VFR WILL PREVAIL INTO THE
EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...WITH
CSV DROPPING TO IFR AFTER 10Z.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTMS CHANCES ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME STRONG TSTMS THRU THE EARLY EVENING HRS TONIGHT...WX PATTERN
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WORK WEEK...TEMPS.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHWR/TSTM COMPLEX CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY REGION FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS
TO MID STATE`S WX AS PRESS TIME APPROACHES... INCLUDING POTENTIAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT WOULD PROVIDE FOR A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION
CLOSER TO THE MID STATE. HOWEVER...CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE MODEL RUNS
SHOWING THAT THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD STAY N OF MID STATE
WITH THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ISO TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS NRN
AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE THRU THE MID MORNING HRS ASSOCIATED
WITH ABOVE MENTIONED POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
CAN NOT ALSO TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS
APPROACHING THE TN/KY BORDER REGION THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
HRS ALSO. EXPECT SHWRS/TSTMS TO BECOME SCT/NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MID STATE AS PASSING SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH COPIOUS ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL OF NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE.
WOULD NOT BE ALSO SURPRISED FOR SOME STORMS TO REACH AT LEAST STRONG
THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON ALSO WITH GUSTY WIND...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SMALL HAIL. WILL ADDRESS THIS CONCERN ALSO
IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUANCE. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MOCLDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S N TO LOWER 90S S...MID 80S PLATEAU...A
CONTINUANCE OF THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMP TREND WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING
THE LAST FEW DAYS. REALLY CAN NOT ARGUE AGAINST CONSENSUS NAM/GFS MOS
GUIDANCE VALUES FOR ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY...AND WILL THUS
LEAN ACCORDINGLY.

AS FOR TONIGHT...WEAK SFC FRONT TO OUR N WILL SAG SWD AND INTO AT LEAST
SRN PORTIONS OF MID STATE...IF NOT TOTALLY PUSHING THRU MID STATE...BY
EARLY WED MORNING. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PROMINENT AT LEAST ACROSS
OR JUST N OF THE MID STATE RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGES BEING POSSIBLE. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS DURING
THE EVENING HRS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HRS. MAY EXPERIENCE SOME PTCDLY CLDY SKIES BY THE MORNING HRS TOO...WITH
LOWS MAINLY AROUND 70...UPPER 60S PLATEAU.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...ANY WAY YOU SLICE IT...RIDGING INFLUENCES
SFC/ALOFT ALONG WITH A CONTINUANCE OF PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTERACTING
WITH DIURNAL INFLUENCES AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...SHOULD RESULT
IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR THE MID STATE THRU FRI NIGHT WITH
MAINLY LATE MORNING THRU EARLY EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS. WILL LEAN A LITTLE
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM/EURO MOS VALUES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...
BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO EVEN MID 90S...UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S...UPPER 60S PLATEAU.

ANOTHER RATHER WEAK SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THRU THE MID STATE
SOMETIME ON SAT ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSAGE RESULTING IN SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE MID STATE. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS HERE...AND WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS SOLUTION...IN WHICH ALL
SHOW THAT INFLUENCES FROM A MIDWEST SFC 1020MB HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN
WILL BEGIN INFLUENCING THE AREAS WEATHER RESULTING IN A TREND BACK TOWARD
TEMPS BEING MORE AROUND SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES INCLUDING A DECREASED
OVERALL CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS TOO...AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

31

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 021119
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
720 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST AIR MASS LINGERING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY AND A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LINE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT. THIS
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE TN RIVER VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A MODERATELY TO POSSIBLY VERY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT. THUS...EXPECT A GOOD COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL MENTION SOME
TSTORMS AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 22 AND 24 UTC. OUTSIDE OF THIS LATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG



000
FXUS64 KMRX 021119
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
720 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST AIR MASS LINGERING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY AND A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LINE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT. THIS
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE TN RIVER VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A MODERATELY TO POSSIBLY VERY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT. THUS...EXPECT A GOOD COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL MENTION SOME
TSTORMS AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 22 AND 24 UTC. OUTSIDE OF THIS LATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG




000
FXUS64 KMEG 020900
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
400 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S. THERE IS NO RAIN IN
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME BUT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR CHICAGO TO
NEAR KANSAS CITY MISSOURI TO NEAR AMARILLO TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY AND WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVER EXTREME NORTHERN
SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL APART BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. ON THURSDAY DAYTIME
HEATING MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH DRY WEATHER AGAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. ON SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA SO THERE WILL A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE
REGION WITH RAIN ENDING DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL START TO LIFT
NORTH SOME ON MONDAY SO THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF POTENTIAL STRATUS AFTER SUNRISE...AND WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER ON STATION WILL BE AT JBR AND MKL. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 6-10 KTS...WITH MORE VARIABILITY AND HIGHER GUSTS
DURING CONVECTION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE. LOWER CIGS/VIS VERY
POSSIBLE AT THE SITES JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 020900
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
400 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S. THERE IS NO RAIN IN
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME BUT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR CHICAGO TO
NEAR KANSAS CITY MISSOURI TO NEAR AMARILLO TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY AND WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVER EXTREME NORTHERN
SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL APART BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. ON THURSDAY DAYTIME
HEATING MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH DRY WEATHER AGAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. ON SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA SO THERE WILL A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE
REGION WITH RAIN ENDING DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL START TO LIFT
NORTH SOME ON MONDAY SO THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF POTENTIAL STRATUS AFTER SUNRISE...AND WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER ON STATION WILL BE AT JBR AND MKL. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 6-10 KTS...WITH MORE VARIABILITY AND HIGHER GUSTS
DURING CONVECTION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE. LOWER CIGS/VIS VERY
POSSIBLE AT THE SITES JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 020821
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
321 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTMS CHANCES ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME STRONG TSTMS THRU THE EARLY EVENING HRS TONIGHT...WX PATTERN
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WORK WEEK...TEMPS.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHWR/TSTM COMPLEX CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY REGION FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS
TO MID STATE`S WX AS PRESS TIME APPROACHES... INCLUDING POTENTIAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT WOULD PROVIDE FOR A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION
CLOSER TO THE MID STATE. HOWEVER...CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE MODEL RUNS
SHOWING THAT THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD STAY N OF MID STATE
WITH THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ISO TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS NRN
AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE THRU THE MID MORNING HRS ASSOCIATED
WITH ABOVE MENTIONED POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
CAN NOT ALSO TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS
APPROACHING THE TN/KY BORDER REGION THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
HRS ALSO. EXPECT SHWRS/TSTMS TO BECOME SCT/NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MID STATE AS PASSING SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH COPIOUS ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL OF NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE.
WOULD NOT BE ALSO SURPRISED FOR SOME STORMS TO REACH AT LEAST STRONG
THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON ALSO WITH GUSTY WIND...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SMALL HAIL. WILL ADDRESS THIS CONCERN ALSO
IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUANCE. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MOCLDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S N TO LOWER 90S S...MID 80S PLATEAU...A
CONTINUANCE OF THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMP TREND WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING
THE LAST FEW DAYS. REALLY CAN NOT ARGUE AGAINST CONSENSUS NAM/GFS MOS
GUIDANCE VALUES FOR ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY...AND WILL THUS
LEAN ACCORDINGLY.

AS FOR TONIGHT...WEAK SFC FRONT TO OUR N WILL SAG SWD AND INTO AT LEAST
SRN PORTIONS OF MID STATE...IF NOT TOTALLY PUSHING THRU MID STATE...BY
EARLY WED MORNING. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PROMINENT AT LEAST ACROSS
OR JUST N OF THE MID STATE RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGES BEING POSSIBLE. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS DURING
THE EVENING HRS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HRS. MAY EXPERIENCE SOME PTCDLY CLDY SKIES BY THE MORNING HRS TOO...WITH
LOWS MAINLY AROUND 70...UPPER 60S PLATEAU.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...ANY WAY YOU SLICE IT...RIDGING INFLUENCES
SFC/ALOFT ALONG WITH A CONTINUANCE OF PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTERACTING
WITH DIURNAL INFLUENCES AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...SHOULD RESULT
IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR THE MID STATE THRU FRI NIGHT WITH
MAINLY LATE MORNING THRU EARLY EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS. WILL LEAN A LITTLE
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM/EURO MOS VALUES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...
BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO EVEN MID 90S...UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S...UPPER 60S PLATEAU.

ANOTHER RATHER WEAK SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THRU THE MID STATE
SOMETIME ON SAT ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSAGE RESULTING IN SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE MID STATE. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS HERE...AND WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS SOLUTION...IN WHICH ALL
SHOW THAT INFLUENCES FROM A MIDWEST SFC 1020MB HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN
WILL BEGIN INFLUENCING THE AREAS WEATHER RESULTING IN A TREND BACK TOWARD
TEMPS BEING MORE AROUND SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES INCLUDING A DECREASED
OVERALL CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS TOO...AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      89  72  92  73 /  60  40  30  20
CLARKSVILLE    88  69  91  70 /  50  30  30  20
CROSSVILLE     85  67  87  66 /  60  40  20  20
COLUMBIA       90  71  93  72 /  60  40  40  20
LAWRENCEBURG   91  69  93  71 /  50  40  40  20
WAVERLY        89  69  92  71 /  60  30  40  20
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KMRX 020715
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WHERE A LARGE MCS WAS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF IT. THIS COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY
APPROACH THE TN RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
MODERATELY TO POSSIBLY VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
IT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
REVEAL A FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATE UP TO AROUND 700 MB...WITH NOT
MUCH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ABOVE THAT. THUS...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE BETTER TODAY WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE
2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE...A DECENT MID LEVEL WIND FLOW AROUND 25
KT...AND AN INVERTED-V PROFILE BELOW 850 MB WHERE DRY AIR MAY HELP
TO ENCOURAGE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN SLOWLY
DRIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH CONVECTION GRADUALLY
WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE
NUMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND ARE
ESSENTIALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A FAIRLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW
ACROSS THE UNITED STATES...EXCEPT FOR A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL PULL A FRONT INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE
TENNESSEE/GEORGIA STATE-LINE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FAR
EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS. THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY PULLING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE REGION. MAIN
FORCING FOR STORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL MAINLY BE THE LOCAL
TERRAIN.

FOR SATURDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA BEFORE STALLING AS
BOUNDARY BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW. THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS
OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...BUT
ISOLATED TO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR
SATURDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             92  71  92  70 /  50  40  30  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  89  69  90  68 /  60  40  30  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       89  69  91  67 /  60  40  30  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              88  67  88  61 /  60  50  20  20
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/DH



000
FXUS64 KMRX 020715
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WHERE A LARGE MCS WAS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF IT. THIS COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY
APPROACH THE TN RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
MODERATELY TO POSSIBLY VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
IT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
REVEAL A FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATE UP TO AROUND 700 MB...WITH NOT
MUCH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ABOVE THAT. THUS...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE BETTER TODAY WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE
2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE...A DECENT MID LEVEL WIND FLOW AROUND 25
KT...AND AN INVERTED-V PROFILE BELOW 850 MB WHERE DRY AIR MAY HELP
TO ENCOURAGE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN SLOWLY
DRIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH CONVECTION GRADUALLY
WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE
NUMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND ARE
ESSENTIALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A FAIRLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW
ACROSS THE UNITED STATES...EXCEPT FOR A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL PULL A FRONT INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE
TENNESSEE/GEORGIA STATE-LINE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FAR
EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS. THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY PULLING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE REGION. MAIN
FORCING FOR STORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL MAINLY BE THE LOCAL
TERRAIN.

FOR SATURDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA BEFORE STALLING AS
BOUNDARY BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW. THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS
OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...BUT
ISOLATED TO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR
SATURDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             92  71  92  70 /  50  40  30  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  89  69  90  68 /  60  40  30  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       89  69  91  67 /  60  40  30  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              88  67  88  61 /  60  50  20  20
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/DH




000
FXUS64 KMRX 020544
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
145 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST AIR MASS LINGERING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.
WILL PLAN TO MENTION SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG AT ALL THREE
TAF SITES THIS MORNING...BUT THINK THAT HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION
OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY MAY KEEP THIS FOG FROM BECOMING TOO
DENSE TOWARDS SUNRISE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TAF SITES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE TN RIVER
VALLEY. THUS...A GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND
THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT FOR NOW...WILL ONLY
MENTION VCTS IN THE TAFS SINCE THE EXACT TIMING AT THE TAF SITES
REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN. OUTSIDE OF SOME FOG THIS MORNING AND
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 020544
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
145 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST AIR MASS LINGERING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.
WILL PLAN TO MENTION SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG AT ALL THREE
TAF SITES THIS MORNING...BUT THINK THAT HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION
OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY MAY KEEP THIS FOG FROM BECOMING TOO
DENSE TOWARDS SUNRISE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TAF SITES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE TN RIVER
VALLEY. THUS...A GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND
THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT FOR NOW...WILL ONLY
MENTION VCTS IN THE TAFS SINCE THE EXACT TIMING AT THE TAF SITES
REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN. OUTSIDE OF SOME FOG THIS MORNING AND
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG



000
FXUS64 KOHX 020452
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1152 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART. SOME MVFR VIS IS
POSSIBLE AT KCSV...BUT WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT IT MAY ONLY LAST
A COUPLE OF HOURS.

IN REGARDS TO THE APPROACHING FRONT...KCKV MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND VCTS WITH REDUCED CIGS BY SUNRISE. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED...WITH MORE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR ALL 3 TERMINALS. WILL MAINTAIN THE VFR
CIGS DURING AFTERNOON TS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED WITH
FUTURE ISSUANCES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT TUESDAY WITH MAINLY
8-10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 817 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE REMOVED EVENING POPS FROM PLATEAU. CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS
MISSOURI AT THIS TIME WILL WORK GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP IT
NORTH OF THE MID STATE THROUGH 13Z. TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK AS IT WILL
BE ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

CLIMATE...TONIGHT WILL BE THE 16TH CONSECUTIVE NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 70S AT NASHVILLE. THIS IS NO WHERE NEAR THE RECORD OF 41
CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 70S THAT WAS SET BACK IN 1955.
THAT STRETCH ENDED ON THE 12TH OF AUGUST IN 1955.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KOHX 020452
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1152 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART. SOME MVFR VIS IS
POSSIBLE AT KCSV...BUT WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT IT MAY ONLY LAST
A COUPLE OF HOURS.

IN REGARDS TO THE APPROACHING FRONT...KCKV MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND VCTS WITH REDUCED CIGS BY SUNRISE. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED...WITH MORE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR ALL 3 TERMINALS. WILL MAINTAIN THE VFR
CIGS DURING AFTERNOON TS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED WITH
FUTURE ISSUANCES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT TUESDAY WITH MAINLY
8-10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 817 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE REMOVED EVENING POPS FROM PLATEAU. CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS
MISSOURI AT THIS TIME WILL WORK GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP IT
NORTH OF THE MID STATE THROUGH 13Z. TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK AS IT WILL
BE ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

CLIMATE...TONIGHT WILL BE THE 16TH CONSECUTIVE NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 70S AT NASHVILLE. THIS IS NO WHERE NEAR THE RECORD OF 41
CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 70S THAT WAS SET BACK IN 1955.
THAT STRETCH ENDED ON THE 12TH OF AUGUST IN 1955.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KMEG 020447
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1147 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 832 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO SCALE BACK POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.

DISCUSSION...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE GULF
COAST EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING. THIS HAS
PROVIDED FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID WEATHER.
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS HAS
TRIGGERED NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. SOME
OF THIS CONVECTION MAY MAKE IT INTO FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN A DECAYED STATE. PLAN TO CARRY LOW END
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE NORTHERN CWA BORDER...QUICKLY TAPERING OFF
POPS WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CUMULUS FIELD ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DECREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDAFTERNOON...WITH DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MIXING AND
THE DEPARTURE OF THIS MORNING/S GRAVITY WAVES. THE ATMOSPHERE
APPEARED TO BE SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER MCS OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU
LATER TONIGHT...EVOLVING FROM LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST OK / SOUTHEAST KS.

SOUTHERN REMNANTS OF THE MCS MAY DROP INTO NORTHEAST AR/THE MO
BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z/01 NAM
AND ECMWF WERE DRIER THAN THE GFS FOR TUESDAY...CAPPING MOST DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE
TROF MID TO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT 20 POPS FOR NORTH
MS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A BIT.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...UNDER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROADENING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RIDGE CENTERED ALONG
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. LOWER/MID 70S DEWPOINTS WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE
SURFACE HEATING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...BUT UNDER AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 6 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FRIDAY WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLING OVER THE MIDSOUTH...IN
RESPONSE TO STRONGER NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY ARRIVING TO THE MID
AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO
SUNDAY...PRECEDED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING BETTER AREAWIDE CHANCES OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT
MONDAY.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF POTENTIAL STRATUS AFTER SUNRISE...AND WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER ON STATION WILL BE AT JBR AND MKL. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 6-10 KTS...WITH MORE VARIABILITY AND HIGHER GUSTS
DURING CONVECTION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE. LOWER CIGS/VIS VERY
POSSIBLE AT THE SITES JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 020447
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1147 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 832 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO SCALE BACK POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.

DISCUSSION...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE GULF
COAST EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING. THIS HAS
PROVIDED FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID WEATHER.
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS HAS
TRIGGERED NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. SOME
OF THIS CONVECTION MAY MAKE IT INTO FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN A DECAYED STATE. PLAN TO CARRY LOW END
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE NORTHERN CWA BORDER...QUICKLY TAPERING OFF
POPS WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CUMULUS FIELD ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DECREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDAFTERNOON...WITH DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MIXING AND
THE DEPARTURE OF THIS MORNING/S GRAVITY WAVES. THE ATMOSPHERE
APPEARED TO BE SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER MCS OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU
LATER TONIGHT...EVOLVING FROM LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST OK / SOUTHEAST KS.

SOUTHERN REMNANTS OF THE MCS MAY DROP INTO NORTHEAST AR/THE MO
BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z/01 NAM
AND ECMWF WERE DRIER THAN THE GFS FOR TUESDAY...CAPPING MOST DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE
TROF MID TO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT 20 POPS FOR NORTH
MS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A BIT.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...UNDER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROADENING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RIDGE CENTERED ALONG
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. LOWER/MID 70S DEWPOINTS WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE
SURFACE HEATING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...BUT UNDER AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 6 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FRIDAY WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLING OVER THE MIDSOUTH...IN
RESPONSE TO STRONGER NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY ARRIVING TO THE MID
AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO
SUNDAY...PRECEDED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING BETTER AREAWIDE CHANCES OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT
MONDAY.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF POTENTIAL STRATUS AFTER SUNRISE...AND WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER ON STATION WILL BE AT JBR AND MKL. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 6-10 KTS...WITH MORE VARIABILITY AND HIGHER GUSTS
DURING CONVECTION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE. LOWER CIGS/VIS VERY
POSSIBLE AT THE SITES JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 020132
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
832 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO SCALE BACK POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE GULF
COAST EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING. THIS HAS
PROVIDED FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID WEATHER.
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS HAS
TRIGGERED NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. SOME
OF THIS CONVECTION MAY MAKE IT INTO FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN A DECAYED STATE. PLAN TO CARRY LOW END
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE NORTHERN CWA BORDER...QUICKLY TAPERING OFF
POPS WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CUMULUS FIELD ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DECREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDAFTERNOON...WITH DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MIXING AND
THE DEPARTURE OF THIS MORNING/S GRAVITY WAVES. THE ATMOSPHERE
APPEARED TO BE SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER MCS OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU
LATER TONIGHT...EVOLVING FROM LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST OK / SOUTHEAST KS.

SOUTHERN REMNANTS OF THE MCS MAY DROP INTO NORTHEAST AR/THE MO
BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z/01 NAM
AND ECMWF WERE DRIER THAN THE GFS FOR TUESDAY...CAPPING MOST DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE
TROF MID TO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT 20 POPS FOR NORTH
MS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A BIT.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...UNDER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROADENING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RIDGE CENTERED ALONG
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. LOWER/MID 70S DEWPOINTS WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE
SURFACE HEATING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...BUT UNDER AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 6 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FRIDAY WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLING OVER THE MIDSOUTH...IN
RESPONSE TO STRONGER NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY ARRIVING TO THE MID
AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO
SUNDAY...PRECEDED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING BETTER AREAWIDE CHANCES OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT
MONDAY.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
MVFR/IFR STRATUS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING. FOR NOW FEEL
THAT TUP WILL HAVE THE LOWEST CIGS. STRATUS SHOULD LIFT AND
SCATTER BY NOON...WITH A FEW LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS POPPING UP
NEAR JBR. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5-9 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 9-12 KTS BY 02/16Z...WITH A FEW GUSTS AT JBR.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 020132
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
832 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO SCALE BACK POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE GULF
COAST EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING. THIS HAS
PROVIDED FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID WEATHER.
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS HAS
TRIGGERED NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. SOME
OF THIS CONVECTION MAY MAKE IT INTO FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN A DECAYED STATE. PLAN TO CARRY LOW END
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE NORTHERN CWA BORDER...QUICKLY TAPERING OFF
POPS WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CUMULUS FIELD ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DECREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDAFTERNOON...WITH DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MIXING AND
THE DEPARTURE OF THIS MORNING/S GRAVITY WAVES. THE ATMOSPHERE
APPEARED TO BE SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER MCS OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU
LATER TONIGHT...EVOLVING FROM LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST OK / SOUTHEAST KS.

SOUTHERN REMNANTS OF THE MCS MAY DROP INTO NORTHEAST AR/THE MO
BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z/01 NAM
AND ECMWF WERE DRIER THAN THE GFS FOR TUESDAY...CAPPING MOST DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE
TROF MID TO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT 20 POPS FOR NORTH
MS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A BIT.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...UNDER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROADENING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RIDGE CENTERED ALONG
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. LOWER/MID 70S DEWPOINTS WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE
SURFACE HEATING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...BUT UNDER AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 6 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FRIDAY WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLING OVER THE MIDSOUTH...IN
RESPONSE TO STRONGER NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY ARRIVING TO THE MID
AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO
SUNDAY...PRECEDED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING BETTER AREAWIDE CHANCES OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT
MONDAY.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
MVFR/IFR STRATUS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING. FOR NOW FEEL
THAT TUP WILL HAVE THE LOWEST CIGS. STRATUS SHOULD LIFT AND
SCATTER BY NOON...WITH A FEW LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS POPPING UP
NEAR JBR. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5-9 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 9-12 KTS BY 02/16Z...WITH A FEW GUSTS AT JBR.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 020117
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
817 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE REMOVED EVENING POPS FROM PLATEAU. CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS
MISSOURI AT THIS TIME WILL WORK GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP IT
NORTH OF THE MID STATE THROUGH 13Z. TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK AS IT WILL
BE ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

.CLIMATE...TONIGHT WILL BE THE 16TH CONSECUTIVE NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 70S AT NASHVILLE. THIS IS NO WHERE NEAR THE RECORD OF 41
CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 70S THAT WAS SET BACK IN 1955.
THAT STRETCH ENDED ON THE 12TH OF AUGUST IN 1955.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 020117
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
817 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE REMOVED EVENING POPS FROM PLATEAU. CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS
MISSOURI AT THIS TIME WILL WORK GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP IT
NORTH OF THE MID STATE THROUGH 13Z. TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK AS IT WILL
BE ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

.CLIMATE...TONIGHT WILL BE THE 16TH CONSECUTIVE NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 70S AT NASHVILLE. THIS IS NO WHERE NEAR THE RECORD OF 41
CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 70S THAT WAS SET BACK IN 1955.
THAT STRETCH ENDED ON THE 12TH OF AUGUST IN 1955.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 020117
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
817 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE REMOVED EVENING POPS FROM PLATEAU. CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS
MISSOURI AT THIS TIME WILL WORK GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP IT
NORTH OF THE MID STATE THROUGH 13Z. TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK AS IT WILL
BE ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

.CLIMATE...TONIGHT WILL BE THE 16TH CONSECUTIVE NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 70S AT NASHVILLE. THIS IS NO WHERE NEAR THE RECORD OF 41
CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 70S THAT WAS SET BACK IN 1955.
THAT STRETCH ENDED ON THE 12TH OF AUGUST IN 1955.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 020117
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
817 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE REMOVED EVENING POPS FROM PLATEAU. CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS
MISSOURI AT THIS TIME WILL WORK GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP IT
NORTH OF THE MID STATE THROUGH 13Z. TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK AS IT WILL
BE ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

.CLIMATE...TONIGHT WILL BE THE 16TH CONSECUTIVE NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 70S AT NASHVILLE. THIS IS NO WHERE NEAR THE RECORD OF 41
CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 70S THAT WAS SET BACK IN 1955.
THAT STRETCH ENDED ON THE 12TH OF AUGUST IN 1955.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KMRX 020021
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
821 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ENDED EARLY THIS EVENING.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN TN AND KY BORDER. SOME STORMS IN GA ARE NOW WEAKENING.
REMOVED POPS FOR THE EVENING MOST AREAS BUT WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN TN SOUTHWEST VA NEAR KY BORDER AS
RIDGE FLATTENS OVERNIGHT ALLOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO APPROACH BY
MORNING TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AS WELL.
UPDATE SENT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 020021
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
821 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ENDED EARLY THIS EVENING.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN TN AND KY BORDER. SOME STORMS IN GA ARE NOW WEAKENING.
REMOVED POPS FOR THE EVENING MOST AREAS BUT WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN TN SOUTHWEST VA NEAR KY BORDER AS
RIDGE FLATTENS OVERNIGHT ALLOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO APPROACH BY
MORNING TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AS WELL.
UPDATE SENT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD



000
FXUS64 KMRX 012345
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
745 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT TYS WITH
A DROP TO MVFR A COUPLE HOURS NEAR SUNRISE. ALSO SOME MVFR FOG AT
TRI FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND COULD GO TO IFR A FEW HOURS. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WITH SOME
CONVECTION BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AT TRI AND IN THE
AFTERNOON AT TYS. CONTINUED VCTS REMARKS FOR TRI AND ADDED IT AT
TYS AT 18Z.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KOHX 012328
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
628 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
BUT AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING FOR KCKV. WHILE TS/RA
MAY REACH KBNA AND KCSV...IT LIKELY WON`T BE UNTIL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS WE NEAR THE 10Z HOUR...LOWER CIGS WILL
APPROACH THE TN-KY STATE LINE...AND CIGS SHOULD FALL INTO IFR TO
MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES BY 13Z. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SEEN BY
LATE MORNING...BUT AT LEAST MVFR WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND THROUGH
17Z. WEAK FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT INTO KBNA BY 21Z WITH TS IN TOW.

WINDS WILL RELAX TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WSW FOR
THE MOST PART TUESDAY.  SOME STRONGER GUSTS MAY COME WITH ANY TS.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS PARTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY WARM ACROSS THE
MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH VERY LITTLE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND HAVE ACTUALLY GONE
WITH A SWATCH OF LIKELY POPS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH ON TUESDAY,
WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY, COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER THAT SHORTWAVE PASSES ON TUESDAY, EXPECT A RETURN TO TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
MAINLY OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING VARIETY.

LONG TERM...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES AGAIN NEXT
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SOME LOWER DEW POINTS FILTER
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA, AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES
EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S BY MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KOHX 012328
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
628 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
BUT AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING FOR KCKV. WHILE TS/RA
MAY REACH KBNA AND KCSV...IT LIKELY WON`T BE UNTIL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS WE NEAR THE 10Z HOUR...LOWER CIGS WILL
APPROACH THE TN-KY STATE LINE...AND CIGS SHOULD FALL INTO IFR TO
MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES BY 13Z. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SEEN BY
LATE MORNING...BUT AT LEAST MVFR WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND THROUGH
17Z. WEAK FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT INTO KBNA BY 21Z WITH TS IN TOW.

WINDS WILL RELAX TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WSW FOR
THE MOST PART TUESDAY.  SOME STRONGER GUSTS MAY COME WITH ANY TS.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS PARTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY WARM ACROSS THE
MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH VERY LITTLE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND HAVE ACTUALLY GONE
WITH A SWATCH OF LIKELY POPS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH ON TUESDAY,
WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY, COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER THAT SHORTWAVE PASSES ON TUESDAY, EXPECT A RETURN TO TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
MAINLY OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING VARIETY.

LONG TERM...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES AGAIN NEXT
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SOME LOWER DEW POINTS FILTER
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA, AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES
EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S BY MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KMEG 012321
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
621 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CUMULUS FIELD ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DECREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDAFTERNOON...WITH DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MIXING AND
THE DEPARTURE OF THIS MORNING/S GRAVITY WAVES. THE ATMOSPHERE
APPEARED TO BE SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER MCS OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU
LATER TONIGHT...EVOLVING FROM LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST OK / SOUTHEAST KS.

SOUTHERN REMNANTS OF THE MCS MAY DROP INTO NORTHEAST AR/THE MO
BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z/01 NAM
AND ECMWF WERE DRIER THAN THE GFS FOR TUESDAY...CAPPING MOST DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE
TROF MID TO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT 20 POPS FOR NORTH
MS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A BIT.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...UNDER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROADENING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RIDGE CENTERED ALONG
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. LOWER/MID 70S DEWPOINTS WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE
SURFACE HEATING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...BUT UNDER AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 6 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FRIDAY WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLING OVER THE MIDSOUTH...IN
RESPONSE TO STRONGER NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY ARRIVING TO THE MID
AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO
SUNDAY...PRECEDED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING BETTER AREAWIDE CHANCES OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT
MONDAY.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
MVFR/IFR STRATUS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING. FOR NOW FEEL
THAT TUP WILL HAVE THE LOWEST CIGS. STRATUS SHOULD LIFT AND
SCATTER BY NOON...WITH A FEW LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS POPPING UP
NEAR JBR. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5-9 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 9-12 KTS BY 02/16Z...WITH A FEW GUSTS AT JBR.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 012321
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
621 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CUMULUS FIELD ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DECREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDAFTERNOON...WITH DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MIXING AND
THE DEPARTURE OF THIS MORNING/S GRAVITY WAVES. THE ATMOSPHERE
APPEARED TO BE SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER MCS OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU
LATER TONIGHT...EVOLVING FROM LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST OK / SOUTHEAST KS.

SOUTHERN REMNANTS OF THE MCS MAY DROP INTO NORTHEAST AR/THE MO
BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z/01 NAM
AND ECMWF WERE DRIER THAN THE GFS FOR TUESDAY...CAPPING MOST DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE
TROF MID TO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT 20 POPS FOR NORTH
MS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A BIT.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...UNDER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROADENING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RIDGE CENTERED ALONG
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. LOWER/MID 70S DEWPOINTS WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE
SURFACE HEATING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...BUT UNDER AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 6 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FRIDAY WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLING OVER THE MIDSOUTH...IN
RESPONSE TO STRONGER NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY ARRIVING TO THE MID
AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO
SUNDAY...PRECEDED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING BETTER AREAWIDE CHANCES OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT
MONDAY.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
MVFR/IFR STRATUS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING. FOR NOW FEEL
THAT TUP WILL HAVE THE LOWEST CIGS. STRATUS SHOULD LIFT AND
SCATTER BY NOON...WITH A FEW LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS POPPING UP
NEAR JBR. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5-9 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 9-12 KTS BY 02/16Z...WITH A FEW GUSTS AT JBR.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 012321
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
621 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CUMULUS FIELD ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DECREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDAFTERNOON...WITH DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MIXING AND
THE DEPARTURE OF THIS MORNING/S GRAVITY WAVES. THE ATMOSPHERE
APPEARED TO BE SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER MCS OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU
LATER TONIGHT...EVOLVING FROM LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST OK / SOUTHEAST KS.

SOUTHERN REMNANTS OF THE MCS MAY DROP INTO NORTHEAST AR/THE MO
BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z/01 NAM
AND ECMWF WERE DRIER THAN THE GFS FOR TUESDAY...CAPPING MOST DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE
TROF MID TO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT 20 POPS FOR NORTH
MS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A BIT.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...UNDER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROADENING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RIDGE CENTERED ALONG
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. LOWER/MID 70S DEWPOINTS WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE
SURFACE HEATING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...BUT UNDER AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 6 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FRIDAY WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLING OVER THE MIDSOUTH...IN
RESPONSE TO STRONGER NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY ARRIVING TO THE MID
AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO
SUNDAY...PRECEDED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING BETTER AREAWIDE CHANCES OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT
MONDAY.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
MVFR/IFR STRATUS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING. FOR NOW FEEL
THAT TUP WILL HAVE THE LOWEST CIGS. STRATUS SHOULD LIFT AND
SCATTER BY NOON...WITH A FEW LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS POPPING UP
NEAR JBR. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5-9 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 9-12 KTS BY 02/16Z...WITH A FEW GUSTS AT JBR.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 012321
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
621 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CUMULUS FIELD ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DECREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDAFTERNOON...WITH DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MIXING AND
THE DEPARTURE OF THIS MORNING/S GRAVITY WAVES. THE ATMOSPHERE
APPEARED TO BE SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER MCS OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU
LATER TONIGHT...EVOLVING FROM LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST OK / SOUTHEAST KS.

SOUTHERN REMNANTS OF THE MCS MAY DROP INTO NORTHEAST AR/THE MO
BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z/01 NAM
AND ECMWF WERE DRIER THAN THE GFS FOR TUESDAY...CAPPING MOST DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE
TROF MID TO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT 20 POPS FOR NORTH
MS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A BIT.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...UNDER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROADENING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RIDGE CENTERED ALONG
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. LOWER/MID 70S DEWPOINTS WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE
SURFACE HEATING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...BUT UNDER AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 6 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FRIDAY WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLING OVER THE MIDSOUTH...IN
RESPONSE TO STRONGER NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY ARRIVING TO THE MID
AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO
SUNDAY...PRECEDED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING BETTER AREAWIDE CHANCES OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT
MONDAY.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
MVFR/IFR STRATUS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING. FOR NOW FEEL
THAT TUP WILL HAVE THE LOWEST CIGS. STRATUS SHOULD LIFT AND
SCATTER BY NOON...WITH A FEW LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS POPPING UP
NEAR JBR. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5-9 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 9-12 KTS BY 02/16Z...WITH A FEW GUSTS AT JBR.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KOHX 012052
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
352 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...IT WAS PARTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY WARM ACROSS THE
MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH VERY LITTLE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND HAVE ACTUALLY GONE
WITH A SWATCH OF LIKELY POPS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH ON TUESDAY,
WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY, COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER THAT SHORTWAVE PASSES ON TUESDAY, EXPECT A RETURN TO TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
MAINLY OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING VARIETY.

.LONG TERM...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES AGAIN NEXT
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SOME LOWER DEW POINTS FILTER
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA, AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES
EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S BY MONDAY
MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      73  90  71  92 /  10  60  40  30
CLARKSVILLE    71  89  68  90 /  30  50  30  30
CROSSVILLE     69  86  66  87 /  20  60  50  20
COLUMBIA       73  91  72  93 /  10  60  40  40
LAWRENCEBURG   71  91  70  93 /  10  50  40  40
WAVERLY        72  90  69  91 /  20  60  30  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 012052
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
352 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...IT WAS PARTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY WARM ACROSS THE
MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH VERY LITTLE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND HAVE ACTUALLY GONE
WITH A SWATCH OF LIKELY POPS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH ON TUESDAY,
WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY, COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER THAT SHORTWAVE PASSES ON TUESDAY, EXPECT A RETURN TO TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
MAINLY OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING VARIETY.

.LONG TERM...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES AGAIN NEXT
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SOME LOWER DEW POINTS FILTER
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA, AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES
EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S BY MONDAY
MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      73  90  71  92 /  10  60  40  30
CLARKSVILLE    71  89  68  90 /  30  50  30  30
CROSSVILLE     69  86  66  87 /  20  60  50  20
COLUMBIA       73  91  72  93 /  10  60  40  40
LAWRENCEBURG   71  91  70  93 /  10  50  40  40
WAVERLY        72  90  69  91 /  20  60  30  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KMEG 012025 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CUMULUS FIELD ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DECREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDAFTERNOON...WITH DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MIXING AND
THE DEPARTURE OF THIS MORNING/S GRAVITY WAVES. THE ATMOSPHERE
APPEARED TO BE SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER MCS OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU
LATER TONIGHT...EVOLVING FROM LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST OK / SOUTHEAST KS.

SOUTHERN REMNANTS OF THE MCS MAY DROP INTO NORTHEAST AR/THE MO
BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z/01 NAM
AND ECMWF WERE DRIER THAN THE GFS FOR TUESDAY...CAPPING MOST DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE
TROF MID TO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT 20 POPS FOR NORTH
MS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A BIT.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...UNDER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROADENING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RIDGE CENTERED ALONG
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. LOWER/MID 70S DEWPOINTS WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE
SURFACE HEATING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...BUT UNDER AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 6 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FRIDAY WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLING OVER THE MIDSOUTH...IN
RESPONSE TO STRONGER NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY ARRIVING TO THE MID
AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO
SUNDAY...PRECEDED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING BETTER AREAWIDE CHANCES OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT
MONDAY.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS MIDSOUTH FROM PARIS, TN TO
HELENA, AR. SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH SEEM TO FORM AND THEN DISSIPATE.
TOWARD NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH SHOWERS LAST LONGER AND
ARE STRONGER. SHOWERS COULD QUIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TONIGHT TO REDUCE FOG RISK.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 012025 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CUMULUS FIELD ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DECREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDAFTERNOON...WITH DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MIXING AND
THE DEPARTURE OF THIS MORNING/S GRAVITY WAVES. THE ATMOSPHERE
APPEARED TO BE SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER MCS OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU
LATER TONIGHT...EVOLVING FROM LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST OK / SOUTHEAST KS.

SOUTHERN REMNANTS OF THE MCS MAY DROP INTO NORTHEAST AR/THE MO
BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z/01 NAM
AND ECMWF WERE DRIER THAN THE GFS FOR TUESDAY...CAPPING MOST DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE
TROF MID TO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT 20 POPS FOR NORTH
MS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A BIT.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...UNDER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROADENING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RIDGE CENTERED ALONG
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. LOWER/MID 70S DEWPOINTS WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE
SURFACE HEATING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...BUT UNDER AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 6 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FRIDAY WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLING OVER THE MIDSOUTH...IN
RESPONSE TO STRONGER NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY ARRIVING TO THE MID
AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO
SUNDAY...PRECEDED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING BETTER AREAWIDE CHANCES OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT
MONDAY.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS MIDSOUTH FROM PARIS, TN TO
HELENA, AR. SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH SEEM TO FORM AND THEN DISSIPATE.
TOWARD NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH SHOWERS LAST LONGER AND
ARE STRONGER. SHOWERS COULD QUIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TONIGHT TO REDUCE FOG RISK.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 012025 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CUMULUS FIELD ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DECREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDAFTERNOON...WITH DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MIXING AND
THE DEPARTURE OF THIS MORNING/S GRAVITY WAVES. THE ATMOSPHERE
APPEARED TO BE SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER MCS OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU
LATER TONIGHT...EVOLVING FROM LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST OK / SOUTHEAST KS.

SOUTHERN REMNANTS OF THE MCS MAY DROP INTO NORTHEAST AR/THE MO
BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z/01 NAM
AND ECMWF WERE DRIER THAN THE GFS FOR TUESDAY...CAPPING MOST DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE
TROF MID TO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT 20 POPS FOR NORTH
MS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A BIT.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...UNDER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROADENING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RIDGE CENTERED ALONG
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. LOWER/MID 70S DEWPOINTS WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE
SURFACE HEATING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...BUT UNDER AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 6 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FRIDAY WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLING OVER THE MIDSOUTH...IN
RESPONSE TO STRONGER NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY ARRIVING TO THE MID
AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO
SUNDAY...PRECEDED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING BETTER AREAWIDE CHANCES OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT
MONDAY.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS MIDSOUTH FROM PARIS, TN TO
HELENA, AR. SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH SEEM TO FORM AND THEN DISSIPATE.
TOWARD NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH SHOWERS LAST LONGER AND
ARE STRONGER. SHOWERS COULD QUIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TONIGHT TO REDUCE FOG RISK.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 012025 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CUMULUS FIELD ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DECREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDAFTERNOON...WITH DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MIXING AND
THE DEPARTURE OF THIS MORNING/S GRAVITY WAVES. THE ATMOSPHERE
APPEARED TO BE SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER MCS OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU
LATER TONIGHT...EVOLVING FROM LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST OK / SOUTHEAST KS.

SOUTHERN REMNANTS OF THE MCS MAY DROP INTO NORTHEAST AR/THE MO
BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z/01 NAM
AND ECMWF WERE DRIER THAN THE GFS FOR TUESDAY...CAPPING MOST DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE
TROF MID TO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT 20 POPS FOR NORTH
MS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A BIT.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...UNDER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROADENING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RIDGE CENTERED ALONG
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. LOWER/MID 70S DEWPOINTS WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE
SURFACE HEATING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...BUT UNDER AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 6 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FRIDAY WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLING OVER THE MIDSOUTH...IN
RESPONSE TO STRONGER NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY ARRIVING TO THE MID
AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO
SUNDAY...PRECEDED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING BETTER AREAWIDE CHANCES OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT
MONDAY.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS MIDSOUTH FROM PARIS, TN TO
HELENA, AR. SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH SEEM TO FORM AND THEN DISSIPATE.
TOWARD NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH SHOWERS LAST LONGER AND
ARE STRONGER. SHOWERS COULD QUIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TONIGHT TO REDUCE FOG RISK.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMRX 011918
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...ATMOSPHERE A BIT CAPPED OFF THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A SUPPRESSED APPEARANCE NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
IT APPEARS STORMS ARE FIRING ON THE TERRAIN BUT WEAKEN LACKING
OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT IN THE VALLEY. STAYED WITH ISOLATED PROBABILITY
INTO THE EVENING MOST SPOTS AS SOME OF THE STORMS DRIFT INTO THE
VALLEY BEFORE WEAKENING. PERHAPS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY AS NORTH CENTRAL AMERICA UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
AS THIS OCCURS A WEAK COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA ENHANCING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. STAYED VERY NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND FOR MINS/MAXES.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL
BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WARMTH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGE WILL WORK UPON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...TO PROMOTE DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. BUT A WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY THIS COMING WEEKEND WILL PROBABLY BRING A BIT BETTER
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AROUND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             72  92  71  93 /  20  30  20  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  70  90  69  90 /  10  40  30  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       71  89  69  91 /  20  40  30  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              67  88  64  88 /  10  50  40  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 011918
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...ATMOSPHERE A BIT CAPPED OFF THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A SUPPRESSED APPEARANCE NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
IT APPEARS STORMS ARE FIRING ON THE TERRAIN BUT WEAKEN LACKING
OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT IN THE VALLEY. STAYED WITH ISOLATED PROBABILITY
INTO THE EVENING MOST SPOTS AS SOME OF THE STORMS DRIFT INTO THE
VALLEY BEFORE WEAKENING. PERHAPS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY AS NORTH CENTRAL AMERICA UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
AS THIS OCCURS A WEAK COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA ENHANCING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. STAYED VERY NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND FOR MINS/MAXES.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL
BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WARMTH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGE WILL WORK UPON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...TO PROMOTE DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. BUT A WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY THIS COMING WEEKEND WILL PROBABLY BRING A BIT BETTER
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AROUND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             72  92  71  93 /  20  30  20  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  70  90  69  90 /  10  40  30  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       71  89  69  91 /  20  40  30  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              67  88  64  88 /  10  50  40  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 011747
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
147 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...SOME CONVECTION FIRING ON THE TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT A TERMINAL AS HEATING
CONTINUES TO ALLOW FORMATION IN THE INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR FLIGHT DEEP INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR FOG AT TRI
TOWARD SUNRISE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
ON TUESDAY SPARKING SOME CONVECTION. POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR
CONVECTION TOWARD MID DAY AROUND TRI CLOSER TO THE ACTION
DEVELOPING WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO PLACED A THUNDERSTORM IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 011742
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1242 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...


&&

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...
LATE MORNING GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED A SERIES OF GRAVITY WAVES
MOVING SOUTH THROUGH AR/WEST TN...INITIATED FROM A DECAYING MCS
OVER SOUTHERN MO. IN ADDITION...250MB ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF
WEAK DIVERGENCE OVER EASTERN AR/WEST TN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET.

IN ADDITION TO THE MINOR UPDATES MADE EARLIER THIS MORNING... A
MENTION OF LIGHT SHOWERS WAS ADDED FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE I40
CORRIDOR THROUGH 1 PM. THIS TIME PERIOD MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF
THE LOW LEVELS DON/T SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZE AND MIX OUT THE LOW
LEVEL WAVES. ONCE THIS OCCURS...12Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 850MB SHOULD KEEP AREAS NEAR THE I40
CORRIDOR CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANCES AT ALL WITH THIS UPDATE. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT REMAINS A BIT WARM AFTER
MIDWEEK.

AT 3 AM THE RADAR IS QUIET ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S AND HAVE BEEN STEADY FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. AT THIS POINT I WOULDN`T EXPECT MORE THAN ANOTHER DEGREE
OR TWO OF COOLING PRIOR TO SUNRISE. UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO WEST MISSOURI THINGS ARE MUCH MORE INTERESTING. A
LARGE MCS HAS DEVELOPED AND IN PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. WE
ARE GOING TO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE. THEY HAVE A
TENDENCY TO SOMETIMES TAKE ON A LIFE OF THEIR OWN AND PERSIST MUCH
LONGER THAN EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE HAS IT DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE MIDSOUTH. EVEN IF
THAT IS THE CASE...REMNANT OUTFLOW COULD IMPACT THE WEATHER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF TH MIDSOUTH..MAINLY IN THE NORTH TODAY. AS THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS SOUTH...IT WILL LOSE ITS MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO
DISSIPATING MAKES THE MOST SENSE AND THAT IS WHAT I WILL BASE THE
FORECAST ON FOR NOW.

TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND WARMER...WE SHOULD SEE MOST AREAS
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY THIS WEEK AND A BROAD TROUGH WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE IN NO-MANS LAND BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH TOMORROW
RESULTING IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE IN A SUMMER LIKE HIGH INSTABILITY LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT AT
THIS TIME I DO NOT THINK THE THREAT WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD
ANYTHING TO THE HWO. THE RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY
EXPAND AFTER MIDWEEK. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH SLIGHTLY DRYER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...EXPECT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE. STILL EXPECTING TO SEE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TREND
COOLER AFTER MIDWEEK. DID NOT CHANGE NUMBERS FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS THEY LOOKED RIGHT ON TRACK...GENERALLY 2-4 DEGREES
BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE LOW 90S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN THE WORKS LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AND LOWER TONIGHT.

30

AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS MIDSOUTH FROM PARIS, TN TO
HELENA, AR. SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH SEEM TO FORM AND THEN DISSIPATE.
TOWARD NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH SHOWERS LAST LONGER AND
ARE STRONGER. SHOWERS COULD QUIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TONIGHT TO REDUCE FOG RISK.

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 011728
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1228 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STARTING TO
TIGHTEN UP CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A
FEW SHOWERS AROUND CKV, AND WILL TEMPO THESE THROUGH 20Z. LOOK FOR
WINDS TO STAY UP OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND SHOULD KEEP VSBY`S VFR. POP`S INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
AFTER 18Z TOMORROW, SO, OTHER THAN SHRA AT CKV EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL KEEP US DRY THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS PER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
NW PORTIONS OF MID STATE RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS
ACROSS THIS AREA THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 626 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
ANY VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE EARLY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20KT AT
CKV AND BNA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER 00Z AND CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 011728
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1228 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STARTING TO
TIGHTEN UP CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A
FEW SHOWERS AROUND CKV, AND WILL TEMPO THESE THROUGH 20Z. LOOK FOR
WINDS TO STAY UP OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND SHOULD KEEP VSBY`S VFR. POP`S INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
AFTER 18Z TOMORROW, SO, OTHER THAN SHRA AT CKV EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL KEEP US DRY THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS PER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
NW PORTIONS OF MID STATE RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS
ACROSS THIS AREA THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 626 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
ANY VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE EARLY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20KT AT
CKV AND BNA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER 00Z AND CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 011728
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1228 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STARTING TO
TIGHTEN UP CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A
FEW SHOWERS AROUND CKV, AND WILL TEMPO THESE THROUGH 20Z. LOOK FOR
WINDS TO STAY UP OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND SHOULD KEEP VSBY`S VFR. POP`S INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
AFTER 18Z TOMORROW, SO, OTHER THAN SHRA AT CKV EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL KEEP US DRY THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS PER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
NW PORTIONS OF MID STATE RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS
ACROSS THIS AREA THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 626 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
ANY VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE EARLY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20KT AT
CKV AND BNA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER 00Z AND CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 011728
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1228 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STARTING TO
TIGHTEN UP CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A
FEW SHOWERS AROUND CKV, AND WILL TEMPO THESE THROUGH 20Z. LOOK FOR
WINDS TO STAY UP OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND SHOULD KEEP VSBY`S VFR. POP`S INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
AFTER 18Z TOMORROW, SO, OTHER THAN SHRA AT CKV EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL KEEP US DRY THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS PER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
NW PORTIONS OF MID STATE RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS
ACROSS THIS AREA THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 626 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
ANY VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE EARLY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20KT AT
CKV AND BNA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER 00Z AND CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KMEG 011610 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1110 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
LATE MORNING GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED A SERIES OF GRAVITY WAVES
MOVING SOUTH THROUGH AR/WEST TN...INITIATED FROM A DECAYING MCS
OVER SOUTHERN MO. IN ADDITION...250MB ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF
WEAK DIVERGENCE OVER EASTERN AR/WEST TN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET.

IN ADDITION TO THE MINOR UPDATES MADE EARLIER THIS MORNING... A
MENTION OF LIGHT SHOWERS WAS ADDED FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE I40
CORRIDOR THROUGH 1 PM. THIS TIME PERIOD MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF
THE LOW LEVELS DON/T SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZE AND MIX OUT THE LOW
LEVEL WAVES. ONCE THIS OCCURS...12Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 850MB SHOULD KEEP AREAS NEAR THE I40
CORRIDOR CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANCES AT ALL WITH THIS UPDATE. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT REMAINS A BIT WARM AFTER
MIDWEEK.

AT 3 AM THE RADAR IS QUIET ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S AND HAVE BEEN STEADY FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. AT THIS POINT I WOULDN`T EXPECT MORE THAN ANOTHER DEGREE
OR TWO OF COOLING PRIOR TO SUNRISE. UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO WEST MISSOURI THINGS ARE MUCH MORE INTERESTING. A
LARGE MCS HAS DEVELOPED AND IN PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. WE
ARE GOING TO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE. THEY HAVE A
TENDENCY TO SOMETIMES TAKE ON A LIFE OF THEIR OWN AND PERSIST MUCH
LONGER THAN EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE HAS IT DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE MIDSOUTH. EVEN IF
THAT IS THE CASE...REMNANT OUTFLOW COULD IMPACT THE WEATHER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF TH MIDSOUTH..MAINLY IN THE NORTH TODAY. AS THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS SOUTH...IT WILL LOSE ITS MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO
DISSIPATING MAKES THE MOST SENSE AND THAT IS WHAT I WILL BASE THE
FORECAST ON FOR NOW.

TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND WARMER...WE SHOULD SEE MOST AREAS
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY THIS WEEK AND A BROAD TROUGH WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE IN NO-MANS LAND BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH TOMORROW
RESULTING IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE IN A SUMMER LIKE HIGH INSTABILITY LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT AT
THIS TIME I DO NOT THINK THE THREAT WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD
ANYTHING TO THE HWO. THE RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY
EXPAND AFTER MIDWEEK. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH SLIGHTLY DRYER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...EXPECT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE. STILL EXPECTING TO SEE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TREND
COOLER AFTER MIDWEEK. DID NOT CHANGE NUMBERS FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS THEY LOOKED RIGHT ON TRACK...GENERALLY 2-4 DEGREES
BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE LOW 90S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN THE WORKS LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

CURRENT LOWER CEILINGS AT KMEM AND MVFR VISIBILITY AT KTUP SHOULD
NOT LAST TOO LONG THIS MORNING OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
FOUND FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM
THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 011610 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1110 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
LATE MORNING GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED A SERIES OF GRAVITY WAVES
MOVING SOUTH THROUGH AR/WEST TN...INITIATED FROM A DECAYING MCS
OVER SOUTHERN MO. IN ADDITION...250MB ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF
WEAK DIVERGENCE OVER EASTERN AR/WEST TN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET.

IN ADDITION TO THE MINOR UPDATES MADE EARLIER THIS MORNING... A
MENTION OF LIGHT SHOWERS WAS ADDED FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE I40
CORRIDOR THROUGH 1 PM. THIS TIME PERIOD MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF
THE LOW LEVELS DON/T SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZE AND MIX OUT THE LOW
LEVEL WAVES. ONCE THIS OCCURS...12Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 850MB SHOULD KEEP AREAS NEAR THE I40
CORRIDOR CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANCES AT ALL WITH THIS UPDATE. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT REMAINS A BIT WARM AFTER
MIDWEEK.

AT 3 AM THE RADAR IS QUIET ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S AND HAVE BEEN STEADY FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. AT THIS POINT I WOULDN`T EXPECT MORE THAN ANOTHER DEGREE
OR TWO OF COOLING PRIOR TO SUNRISE. UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO WEST MISSOURI THINGS ARE MUCH MORE INTERESTING. A
LARGE MCS HAS DEVELOPED AND IN PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. WE
ARE GOING TO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE. THEY HAVE A
TENDENCY TO SOMETIMES TAKE ON A LIFE OF THEIR OWN AND PERSIST MUCH
LONGER THAN EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE HAS IT DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE MIDSOUTH. EVEN IF
THAT IS THE CASE...REMNANT OUTFLOW COULD IMPACT THE WEATHER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF TH MIDSOUTH..MAINLY IN THE NORTH TODAY. AS THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS SOUTH...IT WILL LOSE ITS MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO
DISSIPATING MAKES THE MOST SENSE AND THAT IS WHAT I WILL BASE THE
FORECAST ON FOR NOW.

TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND WARMER...WE SHOULD SEE MOST AREAS
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY THIS WEEK AND A BROAD TROUGH WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE IN NO-MANS LAND BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH TOMORROW
RESULTING IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE IN A SUMMER LIKE HIGH INSTABILITY LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT AT
THIS TIME I DO NOT THINK THE THREAT WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD
ANYTHING TO THE HWO. THE RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY
EXPAND AFTER MIDWEEK. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH SLIGHTLY DRYER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...EXPECT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE. STILL EXPECTING TO SEE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TREND
COOLER AFTER MIDWEEK. DID NOT CHANGE NUMBERS FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS THEY LOOKED RIGHT ON TRACK...GENERALLY 2-4 DEGREES
BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE LOW 90S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN THE WORKS LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

CURRENT LOWER CEILINGS AT KMEM AND MVFR VISIBILITY AT KTUP SHOULD
NOT LAST TOO LONG THIS MORNING OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
FOUND FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM
THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMRX 011421
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1021 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH SUFFICIENT
CAPE FOR THE PRODUCTION OF A FEW SHOWERS AND A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE ON TERRAIN
FEATURES AND DRIFT EAST IN THE PREVAILING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MAX TEMPS MAY BE JUST A TAD OPTIMISTIC SO WILL TRIM A DEGREE OR
TWO IN SPOTS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 011421
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1021 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH SUFFICIENT
CAPE FOR THE PRODUCTION OF A FEW SHOWERS AND A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE ON TERRAIN
FEATURES AND DRIFT EAST IN THE PREVAILING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MAX TEMPS MAY BE JUST A TAD OPTIMISTIC SO WILL TRIM A DEGREE OR
TWO IN SPOTS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 011225 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
725 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS PER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
NW PORTIONS OF MID STATE RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS
ACROSS THIS AREA THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HRS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 626 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
ANY VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE EARLY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20KT AT
CKV AND BNA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER 00Z AND CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 011225 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
725 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS PER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
NW PORTIONS OF MID STATE RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS
ACROSS THIS AREA THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HRS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 626 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
ANY VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE EARLY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20KT AT
CKV AND BNA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER 00Z AND CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 011225 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
725 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS PER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
NW PORTIONS OF MID STATE RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS
ACROSS THIS AREA THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HRS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 626 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
ANY VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE EARLY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20KT AT
CKV AND BNA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER 00Z AND CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 011225 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
725 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS PER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
NW PORTIONS OF MID STATE RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS
ACROSS THIS AREA THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HRS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 626 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
ANY VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE EARLY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20KT AT
CKV AND BNA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER 00Z AND CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
31






000
FXUS64 KMEG 011132
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
632 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANCES AT ALL WITH THIS UPDATE. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT REMAINS A BIT WARM AFTER
MIDWEEK.

AT 3 AM THE RADAR IS QUIET ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S AND HAVE BEEN STEADY FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. AT THIS POINT I WOULDN`T EXPECT MORE THAN ANOTHER DEGREE
OR TWO OF COOLING PRIOR TO SUNRISE. UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO WEST MISSOURI THINGS ARE MUCH MORE INTERESTING. A
LARGE MCS HAS DEVELOPED AND IN PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. WE
ARE GOING TO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE. THEY HAVE A
TENDENCY TO SOMETIMES TAKE ON A LIFE OF THEIR OWN AND PERSIST MUCH
LONGER THAN EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE HAS IT DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE MIDSOUTH. EVEN IF
THAT IS THE CASE...REMNANT OUTFLOW COULD IMPACT THE WEATHER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF TH MIDSOUTH..MAINLY IN THE NORTH TODAY. AS THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS SOUTH...IT WILL LOSE ITS MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO
DISSIPATING MAKES THE MOST SENSE AND THAT IS WHAT I WILL BASE THE
FORECAST ON FOR NOW.

TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND WARMER...WE SHOULD SEE MOST AREAS
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY THIS WEEK AND A BROAD TROUGH WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE IN NO-MANS LAND BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH TOMORROW
RESULTING IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE IN A SUMMER LIKE HIGH INSTABILITY LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT AT
THIS TIME I DO NOT THINK THE THREAT WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD
ANYTHING TO THE HWO. THE RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY
EXPAND AFTER MIDWEEK. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH SLIGHTLY DRYER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...EXPECT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE. STILL EXPECTING TO SEE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TREND
COOLER AFTER MIDWEEK. DID NOT CHANGE NUMBERS FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS THEY LOOKED RIGHT ON TRACK...GENERALLY 2-4 DEGREES
BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE LOW 90S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN THE WORKS LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

CURRENT LOWER CEILINGS AT KMEM AND MVFR VISIBILITY AT KTUP SHOULD
NOT LAST TOO LONG THIS MORNING OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
FOUND FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM
THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 011132
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
632 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANCES AT ALL WITH THIS UPDATE. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT REMAINS A BIT WARM AFTER
MIDWEEK.

AT 3 AM THE RADAR IS QUIET ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S AND HAVE BEEN STEADY FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. AT THIS POINT I WOULDN`T EXPECT MORE THAN ANOTHER DEGREE
OR TWO OF COOLING PRIOR TO SUNRISE. UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO WEST MISSOURI THINGS ARE MUCH MORE INTERESTING. A
LARGE MCS HAS DEVELOPED AND IN PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. WE
ARE GOING TO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE. THEY HAVE A
TENDENCY TO SOMETIMES TAKE ON A LIFE OF THEIR OWN AND PERSIST MUCH
LONGER THAN EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE HAS IT DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE MIDSOUTH. EVEN IF
THAT IS THE CASE...REMNANT OUTFLOW COULD IMPACT THE WEATHER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF TH MIDSOUTH..MAINLY IN THE NORTH TODAY. AS THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS SOUTH...IT WILL LOSE ITS MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO
DISSIPATING MAKES THE MOST SENSE AND THAT IS WHAT I WILL BASE THE
FORECAST ON FOR NOW.

TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND WARMER...WE SHOULD SEE MOST AREAS
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY THIS WEEK AND A BROAD TROUGH WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE IN NO-MANS LAND BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH TOMORROW
RESULTING IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE IN A SUMMER LIKE HIGH INSTABILITY LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT AT
THIS TIME I DO NOT THINK THE THREAT WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD
ANYTHING TO THE HWO. THE RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY
EXPAND AFTER MIDWEEK. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH SLIGHTLY DRYER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...EXPECT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE. STILL EXPECTING TO SEE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TREND
COOLER AFTER MIDWEEK. DID NOT CHANGE NUMBERS FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS THEY LOOKED RIGHT ON TRACK...GENERALLY 2-4 DEGREES
BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE LOW 90S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN THE WORKS LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

CURRENT LOWER CEILINGS AT KMEM AND MVFR VISIBILITY AT KTUP SHOULD
NOT LAST TOO LONG THIS MORNING OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
FOUND FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM
THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 011126
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
626 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
ANY VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE EARLY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20KT AT
CKV AND BNA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER 00Z AND CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05





000
FXUS64 KOHX 011126
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
626 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
ANY VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE EARLY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20KT AT
CKV AND BNA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER 00Z AND CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05






000
FXUS64 KMRX 011114
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
715 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 AT THE TAF SITES. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MARGINALLY TO POTENTIALLY MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT THE
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLATED DUE TO A LACK OF
TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. THUS...WILL NOT MENTION ANY CONVECTION IN THE
TAFS DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE. OUTSIDE OF SOME FOG
THIS MORNING AT KTRI...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS BELOW 10 KT ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG



000
FXUS64 KMEG 010858
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
358 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANCES AT ALL WITH THIS UPDATE. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT REMAINS A BIT WARM AFTER
MIDWEEK.

AT 3 AM THE RADAR IS QUIET ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S AND HAVE BEEN STEADY FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. AT THIS POINT I WOULDN`T EXPECT MORE THAN ANOTHER DEGREE
OR TWO OF COOLING PRIOR TO SUNRISE. UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO WEST MISSOURI THINGS ARE MUCH MORE INTERESTING. A
LARGE MCS HAS DEVELOPED AND IN PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. WE
ARE GOING TO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE. THEY HAVE A
TENDENCY TO SOMETIMES TAKE ON A LIFE OF THEIR OWN AND PERSIST MUCH
LONGER THAN EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE HAS IT DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE MIDSOUTH. EVEN IF
THAT IS THE CASE...REMNANT OUTFLOW COULD IMPACT THE WEATHER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF TH MIDSOUTH..MAINLY IN THE NORTH TODAY. AS THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS SOUTH...IT WILL LOSE ITS MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO
DISSIPATING MAKES THE MOST SENSE AND THAT IS WHAT I WILL BASE THE
FORECAST ON FOR NOW.

TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND WARMER...WE SHOULD SEE MOST AREAS
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY THIS WEEK AND A BROAD TROUGH WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE IN NO-MANS LAND BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH TOMORROW
RESULTING IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE IN A SUMMER LIKE HIGH INSTABILITY LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT AT
THIS TIME I DO NOT THINK THE THREAT WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD
ANYTHING TO THE HWO. THE RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY
EXPAND AFTER MIDWEEK. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH SLIGHTLY DRYER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...EXPECT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE. STILL EXPECTING TO SEE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TREND
COOLER AFTER MIDWEEK. DID NOT CHANGE NUMBERS FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS THEY LOOKED RIGHT ON TRACK...GENERALLY 2-4 DEGREES
BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE LOW 90S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN THE WORKS LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE
SOME TEMPORARY MVFR REDUCTIONS AT KMKL AND KTUP IN EARLY MORNING
FOG. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT RANGING FROM 6 KTS AT
KMKL AND KTUP TO 8 KTS AT KJBR.

DIURNAL CUMULUS ALONG WITH SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST GREATER
THAN 8 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY WEST.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING BUT REMAIN SOUTHERLY. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 010858
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
358 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANCES AT ALL WITH THIS UPDATE. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT REMAINS A BIT WARM AFTER
MIDWEEK.

AT 3 AM THE RADAR IS QUIET ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S AND HAVE BEEN STEADY FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. AT THIS POINT I WOULDN`T EXPECT MORE THAN ANOTHER DEGREE
OR TWO OF COOLING PRIOR TO SUNRISE. UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO WEST MISSOURI THINGS ARE MUCH MORE INTERESTING. A
LARGE MCS HAS DEVELOPED AND IN PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. WE
ARE GOING TO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE. THEY HAVE A
TENDENCY TO SOMETIMES TAKE ON A LIFE OF THEIR OWN AND PERSIST MUCH
LONGER THAN EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE HAS IT DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE MIDSOUTH. EVEN IF
THAT IS THE CASE...REMNANT OUTFLOW COULD IMPACT THE WEATHER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF TH MIDSOUTH..MAINLY IN THE NORTH TODAY. AS THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS SOUTH...IT WILL LOSE ITS MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO
DISSIPATING MAKES THE MOST SENSE AND THAT IS WHAT I WILL BASE THE
FORECAST ON FOR NOW.

TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND WARMER...WE SHOULD SEE MOST AREAS
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY THIS WEEK AND A BROAD TROUGH WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE IN NO-MANS LAND BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH TOMORROW
RESULTING IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE IN A SUMMER LIKE HIGH INSTABILITY LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT AT
THIS TIME I DO NOT THINK THE THREAT WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD
ANYTHING TO THE HWO. THE RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY
EXPAND AFTER MIDWEEK. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH SLIGHTLY DRYER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...EXPECT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE. STILL EXPECTING TO SEE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TREND
COOLER AFTER MIDWEEK. DID NOT CHANGE NUMBERS FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS THEY LOOKED RIGHT ON TRACK...GENERALLY 2-4 DEGREES
BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE LOW 90S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN THE WORKS LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE
SOME TEMPORARY MVFR REDUCTIONS AT KMKL AND KTUP IN EARLY MORNING
FOG. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT RANGING FROM 6 KTS AT
KMKL AND KTUP TO 8 KTS AT KJBR.

DIURNAL CUMULUS ALONG WITH SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST GREATER
THAN 8 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY WEST.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING BUT REMAIN SOUTHERLY. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 010858
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
358 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANCES AT ALL WITH THIS UPDATE. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT REMAINS A BIT WARM AFTER
MIDWEEK.

AT 3 AM THE RADAR IS QUIET ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S AND HAVE BEEN STEADY FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. AT THIS POINT I WOULDN`T EXPECT MORE THAN ANOTHER DEGREE
OR TWO OF COOLING PRIOR TO SUNRISE. UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO WEST MISSOURI THINGS ARE MUCH MORE INTERESTING. A
LARGE MCS HAS DEVELOPED AND IN PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. WE
ARE GOING TO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE. THEY HAVE A
TENDENCY TO SOMETIMES TAKE ON A LIFE OF THEIR OWN AND PERSIST MUCH
LONGER THAN EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE HAS IT DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE MIDSOUTH. EVEN IF
THAT IS THE CASE...REMNANT OUTFLOW COULD IMPACT THE WEATHER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF TH MIDSOUTH..MAINLY IN THE NORTH TODAY. AS THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS SOUTH...IT WILL LOSE ITS MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO
DISSIPATING MAKES THE MOST SENSE AND THAT IS WHAT I WILL BASE THE
FORECAST ON FOR NOW.

TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND WARMER...WE SHOULD SEE MOST AREAS
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY THIS WEEK AND A BROAD TROUGH WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE IN NO-MANS LAND BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH TOMORROW
RESULTING IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE IN A SUMMER LIKE HIGH INSTABILITY LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT AT
THIS TIME I DO NOT THINK THE THREAT WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD
ANYTHING TO THE HWO. THE RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY
EXPAND AFTER MIDWEEK. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH SLIGHTLY DRYER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...EXPECT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE. STILL EXPECTING TO SEE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TREND
COOLER AFTER MIDWEEK. DID NOT CHANGE NUMBERS FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS THEY LOOKED RIGHT ON TRACK...GENERALLY 2-4 DEGREES
BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE LOW 90S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN THE WORKS LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE
SOME TEMPORARY MVFR REDUCTIONS AT KMKL AND KTUP IN EARLY MORNING
FOG. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT RANGING FROM 6 KTS AT
KMKL AND KTUP TO 8 KTS AT KJBR.

DIURNAL CUMULUS ALONG WITH SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST GREATER
THAN 8 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY WEST.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING BUT REMAIN SOUTHERLY. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 010858
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
358 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANCES AT ALL WITH THIS UPDATE. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT REMAINS A BIT WARM AFTER
MIDWEEK.

AT 3 AM THE RADAR IS QUIET ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S AND HAVE BEEN STEADY FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. AT THIS POINT I WOULDN`T EXPECT MORE THAN ANOTHER DEGREE
OR TWO OF COOLING PRIOR TO SUNRISE. UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO WEST MISSOURI THINGS ARE MUCH MORE INTERESTING. A
LARGE MCS HAS DEVELOPED AND IN PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. WE
ARE GOING TO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE. THEY HAVE A
TENDENCY TO SOMETIMES TAKE ON A LIFE OF THEIR OWN AND PERSIST MUCH
LONGER THAN EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE HAS IT DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE MIDSOUTH. EVEN IF
THAT IS THE CASE...REMNANT OUTFLOW COULD IMPACT THE WEATHER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF TH MIDSOUTH..MAINLY IN THE NORTH TODAY. AS THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS SOUTH...IT WILL LOSE ITS MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO
DISSIPATING MAKES THE MOST SENSE AND THAT IS WHAT I WILL BASE THE
FORECAST ON FOR NOW.

TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND WARMER...WE SHOULD SEE MOST AREAS
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY THIS WEEK AND A BROAD TROUGH WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE IN NO-MANS LAND BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH TOMORROW
RESULTING IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE IN A SUMMER LIKE HIGH INSTABILITY LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT AT
THIS TIME I DO NOT THINK THE THREAT WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD
ANYTHING TO THE HWO. THE RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY
EXPAND AFTER MIDWEEK. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH SLIGHTLY DRYER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...EXPECT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE. STILL EXPECTING TO SEE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TREND
COOLER AFTER MIDWEEK. DID NOT CHANGE NUMBERS FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS THEY LOOKED RIGHT ON TRACK...GENERALLY 2-4 DEGREES
BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE LOW 90S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN THE WORKS LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE
SOME TEMPORARY MVFR REDUCTIONS AT KMKL AND KTUP IN EARLY MORNING
FOG. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT RANGING FROM 6 KTS AT
KMKL AND KTUP TO 8 KTS AT KJBR.

DIURNAL CUMULUS ALONG WITH SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST GREATER
THAN 8 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY WEST.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING BUT REMAIN SOUTHERLY. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KOHX 010820
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
320 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...TEMPS.

SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SPORADIC
LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE EARLY MORNING HRS PROGRESS...AND LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST HOUR ACROSS THE MID
STATE. WILL STILL BE MONITORING POTENTIAL FOG FORMATION ALSO AS THE
EARLY MORNING HRS PROGRESS...BUT AM AT LEAST INITIALLY INCLINED TO
INCLUDE IT THRU THE MID MORNING HRS WITH FAVORABLE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND LOCATIONS THAT STILL EXPERIENCE CLR
SKIES BEING FAVORABLE FOR FORMATION.

AS FOR THE REST OF TODAY...ISO SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR
ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE BY THE AFTERNOON HRS AS MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS THE GREATEST DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTERACTING
WITH DIURNAL INFLUENCES AND BEST OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS ACROSS THIS
REGION. ON THE WHOLE...BERMUDA SFC HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES BECOME
MORE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE MID STATE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES
SLIGHTLY ENHANCE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WILL GO CLOSE TO MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGH TEMPS TODAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING TO ABOVE SEASONABLE
NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN PER SLY/SWLY SFC FLOW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 90S...UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 PLATEAU. AS FOR TONIGHT...WILL
KEEP ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE PLATEAU REGION AT LEAST THRU THE
MID EVENING HRS. WILL INTRODUCE LATE NIGHT ACROSS NW/N PORTIONS OF
THE MID STATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 70S.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...ANY WAY YOU SLICE IT...A WEAK SFC FRONT...
UNDERCUTTING SFC BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES...ALONG WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE IN A MORE ZONAL ORIENTATED
FLOW ALOFT...MOVES ACROSS THE MID STATE TUE INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF WED...PROVIDING FOR SCT SHWRS/TSTMS. FROM WED AFTERNOON
THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES
WILL BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED...BUT WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STILL IN PLACE SUPPORTED BY SWLY SFC FLOW...A DIRTY RIDGE PATTERN
WILL EMERGE...UNTIL ANOTHER RATHER WEAK SFC FRONT UNDERCUTS SFC RIDGING
INFLUENCES ACROSS THE SE U.S. AS IT IS BEING PUSHED SEWD BY A STRONG
UPPER MIDWEST SFC 1020MB HIGH...MOVES INTO THE MID STATE PROVIDING
AN ADDITIONAL FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. OVERALL...THIS WEATHER PATTERN FROM MID WORK WEEK FORWARD
WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISO TO SCT LATE MORNING THRU
EARLY EVENING SHWR/TSTMS WITH TEMPS CONTINUING ABOVE SEASONABLE
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER...UNTIL A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN BY LATE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED
MIDWEST SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES COME MORE INTO PLAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      91  73  91  72 /  10  20  30  30
CLARKSVILLE    91  71  90  69 /  10  20  30  30
CROSSVILLE     87  69  87  66 /  20  10  40  30
COLUMBIA       92  73  92  72 /  10  20  30  30
LAWRENCEBURG   92  71  92  70 /  10  10  30  30
WAVERLY        92  72  91  70 /  10  20  30  30
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 010820
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
320 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...TEMPS.

SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SPORADIC
LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE EARLY MORNING HRS PROGRESS...AND LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST HOUR ACROSS THE MID
STATE. WILL STILL BE MONITORING POTENTIAL FOG FORMATION ALSO AS THE
EARLY MORNING HRS PROGRESS...BUT AM AT LEAST INITIALLY INCLINED TO
INCLUDE IT THRU THE MID MORNING HRS WITH FAVORABLE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND LOCATIONS THAT STILL EXPERIENCE CLR
SKIES BEING FAVORABLE FOR FORMATION.

AS FOR THE REST OF TODAY...ISO SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR
ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE BY THE AFTERNOON HRS AS MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS THE GREATEST DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTERACTING
WITH DIURNAL INFLUENCES AND BEST OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS ACROSS THIS
REGION. ON THE WHOLE...BERMUDA SFC HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES BECOME
MORE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE MID STATE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES
SLIGHTLY ENHANCE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WILL GO CLOSE TO MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGH TEMPS TODAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING TO ABOVE SEASONABLE
NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN PER SLY/SWLY SFC FLOW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 90S...UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 PLATEAU. AS FOR TONIGHT...WILL
KEEP ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE PLATEAU REGION AT LEAST THRU THE
MID EVENING HRS. WILL INTRODUCE LATE NIGHT ACROSS NW/N PORTIONS OF
THE MID STATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 70S.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...ANY WAY YOU SLICE IT...A WEAK SFC FRONT...
UNDERCUTTING SFC BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES...ALONG WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE IN A MORE ZONAL ORIENTATED
FLOW ALOFT...MOVES ACROSS THE MID STATE TUE INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF WED...PROVIDING FOR SCT SHWRS/TSTMS. FROM WED AFTERNOON
THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES
WILL BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED...BUT WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STILL IN PLACE SUPPORTED BY SWLY SFC FLOW...A DIRTY RIDGE PATTERN
WILL EMERGE...UNTIL ANOTHER RATHER WEAK SFC FRONT UNDERCUTS SFC RIDGING
INFLUENCES ACROSS THE SE U.S. AS IT IS BEING PUSHED SEWD BY A STRONG
UPPER MIDWEST SFC 1020MB HIGH...MOVES INTO THE MID STATE PROVIDING
AN ADDITIONAL FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. OVERALL...THIS WEATHER PATTERN FROM MID WORK WEEK FORWARD
WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISO TO SCT LATE MORNING THRU
EARLY EVENING SHWR/TSTMS WITH TEMPS CONTINUING ABOVE SEASONABLE
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER...UNTIL A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN BY LATE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED
MIDWEST SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES COME MORE INTO PLAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      91  73  91  72 /  10  20  30  30
CLARKSVILLE    91  71  90  69 /  10  20  30  30
CROSSVILLE     87  69  87  66 /  20  10  40  30
COLUMBIA       92  73  92  72 /  10  20  30  30
LAWRENCEBURG   92  71  92  70 /  10  10  30  30
WAVERLY        92  72  91  70 /  10  20  30  30
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KMRX 010730
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS
NEAR 70 OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LESS
TODAY THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...DUE TO A LACK OF CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING
MECHANISMS. HOWEVER...WITH A MARGINALLY TO POTENTIALLY MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL PLAN
TO MENTION ISOLATED CONVECTION EVERYWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS EVEN
REVEAL AN INVERTED-V PROFILE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WHERE DRY AIR MAY HELP TO ENCOURAGE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WITH ANY
CONVECTION. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WILL COMPROMISE WHERE
SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PUSH SOME
CONVECTION TOWARD THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FRONT ITSELF HOWEVER SHOULD STALL
AND WASH OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A BROAD/FLATTENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...PROMOTING CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. WITH THE
ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE...GOOD CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL EXIST EACH DAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND. A 30 TO
40 POP SEEMED WARRANTED MOST DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S DEPENDING ON STORM/CLOUD COVERAGE. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
RETROGRADE WEST HEADING TOWARD THE WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD PLACE THE
REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND PERHAPS ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AT THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ATTM REGARDING WHICH DAY WOULD BE MORE FAVORED FOR COVERAGE...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             91  72  92  70 /  20  20  30  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  91  70  90  69 /  20  20  30  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       91  71  90  68 /  20  20  40  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              89  66  89  63 /  20  20  50  40
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 010730
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS
NEAR 70 OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LESS
TODAY THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...DUE TO A LACK OF CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING
MECHANISMS. HOWEVER...WITH A MARGINALLY TO POTENTIALLY MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL PLAN
TO MENTION ISOLATED CONVECTION EVERYWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS EVEN
REVEAL AN INVERTED-V PROFILE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WHERE DRY AIR MAY HELP TO ENCOURAGE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WITH ANY
CONVECTION. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WILL COMPROMISE WHERE
SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PUSH SOME
CONVECTION TOWARD THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FRONT ITSELF HOWEVER SHOULD STALL
AND WASH OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A BROAD/FLATTENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...PROMOTING CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. WITH THE
ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE...GOOD CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL EXIST EACH DAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND. A 30 TO
40 POP SEEMED WARRANTED MOST DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S DEPENDING ON STORM/CLOUD COVERAGE. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
RETROGRADE WEST HEADING TOWARD THE WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD PLACE THE
REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND PERHAPS ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AT THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ATTM REGARDING WHICH DAY WOULD BE MORE FAVORED FOR COVERAGE...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             91  72  92  70 /  20  20  30  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  91  70  90  69 /  20  20  30  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       91  71  90  68 /  20  20  40  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              89  66  89  63 /  20  20  50  40
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/AMP



000
FXUS64 KMRX 010526
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
125 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 AT THE TAF SITES. WILL PLAN
TO MENTION SOME IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING...WITH A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION EXPECTED TO KEEP THIS FOG FROM BECOMING TOO DENSE TOWARDS
SUNRISE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT THE
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLATED DUE TO A LACK OF
TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. THUS...WILL NOT MENTION ANY CONVECTION IN THE
TAFS DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE. OUTSIDE OF SOME FOG
THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG



000
FXUS64 KMRX 010526
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
125 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 AT THE TAF SITES. WILL PLAN
TO MENTION SOME IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING...WITH A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION EXPECTED TO KEEP THIS FOG FROM BECOMING TOO DENSE TOWARDS
SUNRISE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT THE
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLATED DUE TO A LACK OF
TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. THUS...WILL NOT MENTION ANY CONVECTION IN THE
TAFS DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE. OUTSIDE OF SOME FOG
THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG



000
FXUS64 KMRX 010526
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
125 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 AT THE TAF SITES. WILL PLAN
TO MENTION SOME IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING...WITH A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION EXPECTED TO KEEP THIS FOG FROM BECOMING TOO DENSE TOWARDS
SUNRISE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT THE
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLATED DUE TO A LACK OF
TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. THUS...WILL NOT MENTION ANY CONVECTION IN THE
TAFS DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE. OUTSIDE OF SOME FOG
THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG



000
FXUS64 KMRX 010526
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
125 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 AT THE TAF SITES. WILL PLAN
TO MENTION SOME IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING...WITH A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION EXPECTED TO KEEP THIS FOG FROM BECOMING TOO DENSE TOWARDS
SUNRISE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT THE
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLATED DUE TO A LACK OF
TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. THUS...WILL NOT MENTION ANY CONVECTION IN THE
TAFS DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE. OUTSIDE OF SOME FOG
THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG



000
FXUS64 KOHX 010455
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1155 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEARING OVER THE MID-STATE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR AN IFR CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE
AND SLIP NORTHWARD OVER ALL 3 TERMINALS. WHILE THERE ARE NO
INDICATIONS OF THIS WANTING TO HAPPEN IN THE CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SOME OF THE SHORT TERM-HI RES GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
THIS POSSIBILITY. EVEN IF THIS DOESN`T HAPPEN...WE MAY END UP WITH
IFR TO MVFR FOG BY SUNRISE. EITHER WAY...SOME FLIGHT CATEGORY
REDUCTION IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNTIL LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON ON LABOR DAY WHEN SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP. SOME GUSTS OF 16-20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL 00Z
TUESDAY.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...
AT 830 PM...RADAR RETURNS WERE MOST DEFINITELY ON A DOWNWARD
TREND. SOME SLOW MOVING CELLS DROPPED HEALTHY AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
OVER SE WILSON COUNTY ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLOOD ADVISORY. DID
RECEIVE A CALL MENTIONING LOW LYING AREAS BECOMING INUNDATED IN
THAT AREA. HOWEVER...COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED AND THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS HAVE MOVED OFF EAST OF THE PLATEAU. AS A
RESULT...LOWERED POP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA UP UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND
REMOVED SLGT CHC POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

IR SATELLITE AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL DRYING OVER
THE REST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...LIKELY RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AT LEAST FOR A BIT BEFORE SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
ADVECTS NORTHWARD OUT OF NORTHERN ALABAMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. SINCE SFC MOISTURE WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STAY SOUTHWESTERLY...LEFT PATCHY FOG
MENTION IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. BUT
WITH DECENT WIND FIELDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND AT LEAST SOME
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TOWARDS DAYBREAK...DID NOT SEE REASON TO
INCREASE THE FOG COVERAGE TO AREAS OR DENSE WORDING.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27









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