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000
FXUS64 KMRX 302324
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
724 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO KTYS
AND KCHA. OVERNIGHT KTRI WILL LIKELY HAVE VISIBILITIES AND CIGS
DROP TO LIFR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE BUT QUICKLY BECOME VFR
AGAIN BY MID-MORNING. THICK SHIELD OF CIRRUS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AND LOWER AS 01/00Z APPROACHES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMEG 302017
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
317 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

JULY 2014 WILL END WITH AN ABNORMAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR AS HAS OCCURRED MUCH OF THE MONTH. UNSEASONABLY MILD
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE START OF AUGUST.

AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG
THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS MOVING INTO OK. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF AR AHEAD OF THIS SHORT WAVE BUT
THE FORWARD EDGE OF THE RAIN IS HAVING TO OVERCOME DRIER AIR OVER
EAST AR. LIGHTNING IS NOT BEING OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE INCREASING FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE ONCE AGAIN BELOW
NORMAL RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER OK WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN AR OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND LOWER OVER THE MIDSOUTH. SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL SPREAD
INTO LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHWEST MS. WITH
INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE ALMOST NIL AND NOT OBSERVING ANY
LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACHING PRECIP...DECIDED TO
REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY MOVING THROUGH NORTH MS. MODELS DO INDICATE THE SHORT WAVE
WEAKENING SOME. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FROM
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TN AND MUCH OF
NORTH MS. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN CAUSING THE
MONTH OF JULY TO END WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE
70S TO LOWER 80S...BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MENTIONED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AS SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS
CLOUDS THIN. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM EAST TX INTO NORTH LA. ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH MS.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BY FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS PLACES THE MIDSOUTH IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FROM EAST CENTRAL
AR ACROSS NORTH MS WHERE THE GREATEST MOISTURE IS FORECAST. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM A LITTLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM THE WEST...ALTHOUGH STILL A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MS SUNDAY BUT
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY.

SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO
NORTH MS AND EAST CENTRAL MOISTURE AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTH.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

CLOUD SHEILD WILL SLOWLY MAKE IT`S WAY EASTWARD THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT..AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z TOMORROW.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. WIND DIRECTIONS AT ALL SITES MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SAK

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 302017
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
317 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

JULY 2014 WILL END WITH AN ABNORMAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR AS HAS OCCURRED MUCH OF THE MONTH. UNSEASONABLY MILD
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE START OF AUGUST.

AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG
THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS MOVING INTO OK. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF AR AHEAD OF THIS SHORT WAVE BUT
THE FORWARD EDGE OF THE RAIN IS HAVING TO OVERCOME DRIER AIR OVER
EAST AR. LIGHTNING IS NOT BEING OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE INCREASING FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE ONCE AGAIN BELOW
NORMAL RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER OK WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN AR OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND LOWER OVER THE MIDSOUTH. SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL SPREAD
INTO LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHWEST MS. WITH
INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE ALMOST NIL AND NOT OBSERVING ANY
LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACHING PRECIP...DECIDED TO
REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY MOVING THROUGH NORTH MS. MODELS DO INDICATE THE SHORT WAVE
WEAKENING SOME. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FROM
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TN AND MUCH OF
NORTH MS. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN CAUSING THE
MONTH OF JULY TO END WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE
70S TO LOWER 80S...BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MENTIONED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AS SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS
CLOUDS THIN. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM EAST TX INTO NORTH LA. ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH MS.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BY FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS PLACES THE MIDSOUTH IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FROM EAST CENTRAL
AR ACROSS NORTH MS WHERE THE GREATEST MOISTURE IS FORECAST. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM A LITTLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM THE WEST...ALTHOUGH STILL A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MS SUNDAY BUT
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY.

SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO
NORTH MS AND EAST CENTRAL MOISTURE AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTH.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

CLOUD SHEILD WILL SLOWLY MAKE IT`S WAY EASTWARD THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT..AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z TOMORROW.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. WIND DIRECTIONS AT ALL SITES MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SAK

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 302017
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
317 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

JULY 2014 WILL END WITH AN ABNORMAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR AS HAS OCCURRED MUCH OF THE MONTH. UNSEASONABLY MILD
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE START OF AUGUST.

AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG
THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS MOVING INTO OK. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF AR AHEAD OF THIS SHORT WAVE BUT
THE FORWARD EDGE OF THE RAIN IS HAVING TO OVERCOME DRIER AIR OVER
EAST AR. LIGHTNING IS NOT BEING OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE INCREASING FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE ONCE AGAIN BELOW
NORMAL RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER OK WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN AR OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND LOWER OVER THE MIDSOUTH. SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL SPREAD
INTO LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHWEST MS. WITH
INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE ALMOST NIL AND NOT OBSERVING ANY
LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACHING PRECIP...DECIDED TO
REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY MOVING THROUGH NORTH MS. MODELS DO INDICATE THE SHORT WAVE
WEAKENING SOME. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FROM
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TN AND MUCH OF
NORTH MS. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN CAUSING THE
MONTH OF JULY TO END WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE
70S TO LOWER 80S...BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MENTIONED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AS SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS
CLOUDS THIN. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM EAST TX INTO NORTH LA. ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH MS.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BY FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS PLACES THE MIDSOUTH IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FROM EAST CENTRAL
AR ACROSS NORTH MS WHERE THE GREATEST MOISTURE IS FORECAST. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM A LITTLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM THE WEST...ALTHOUGH STILL A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MS SUNDAY BUT
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY.

SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO
NORTH MS AND EAST CENTRAL MOISTURE AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTH.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

CLOUD SHEILD WILL SLOWLY MAKE IT`S WAY EASTWARD THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT..AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z TOMORROW.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. WIND DIRECTIONS AT ALL SITES MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SAK

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 302017
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
317 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

JULY 2014 WILL END WITH AN ABNORMAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR AS HAS OCCURRED MUCH OF THE MONTH. UNSEASONABLY MILD
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE START OF AUGUST.

AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG
THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS MOVING INTO OK. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF AR AHEAD OF THIS SHORT WAVE BUT
THE FORWARD EDGE OF THE RAIN IS HAVING TO OVERCOME DRIER AIR OVER
EAST AR. LIGHTNING IS NOT BEING OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE INCREASING FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE ONCE AGAIN BELOW
NORMAL RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER OK WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN AR OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND LOWER OVER THE MIDSOUTH. SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL SPREAD
INTO LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHWEST MS. WITH
INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE ALMOST NIL AND NOT OBSERVING ANY
LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACHING PRECIP...DECIDED TO
REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY MOVING THROUGH NORTH MS. MODELS DO INDICATE THE SHORT WAVE
WEAKENING SOME. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FROM
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TN AND MUCH OF
NORTH MS. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN CAUSING THE
MONTH OF JULY TO END WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE
70S TO LOWER 80S...BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MENTIONED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AS SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS
CLOUDS THIN. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM EAST TX INTO NORTH LA. ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH MS.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BY FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS PLACES THE MIDSOUTH IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FROM EAST CENTRAL
AR ACROSS NORTH MS WHERE THE GREATEST MOISTURE IS FORECAST. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM A LITTLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM THE WEST...ALTHOUGH STILL A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MS SUNDAY BUT
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY.

SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO
NORTH MS AND EAST CENTRAL MOISTURE AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTH.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

CLOUD SHEILD WILL SLOWLY MAKE IT`S WAY EASTWARD THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT..AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z TOMORROW.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. WIND DIRECTIONS AT ALL SITES MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SAK

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMRX 301849
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
249 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER KS/OK WILL APPROACH THE AREA. IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW...850-700 MB WINDS WILL BECOME
S-SE...ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TOMORROW.
THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT THE MOST CLOUDS AND BEST PRECIP CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SW NC TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A
DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT SHOULD PREVENT PRECIP FROM COMING INTO THE
VALLEY. LIFT IS FAIRLY WEAK HOWEVER...AND APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A 500 MB VORT MAX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THUS POPS WILL STAY IN
THE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...AND ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

TRI APPEARS LIKELY TO SEE ANOTHER RECORD LOW TONIGHT (RECORD IS 56)
AS NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH CALM WINDS.
TYS WILL BE CLOSE (58)...AND THE CHA RECORD SHOULD BE SAFE (58)
WHERE HIGH/MID CLOUDS SHOULD BE THICKER.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO OUR WEST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...PLACING US UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL AID THE RETURN
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. A DISTURBANCE TRACKING ALONG THE
UPPER FLOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL ALSO BRING WEAK DYNAMICS AND
WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS WILL ADD TO NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION AND
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EACH PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH TO ISOLATED CONVECTION. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             61  81  64  82 /   0  20  20  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  59  83  62  80 /   0  10  20  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       58  82  62  81 /   0  10  20  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              53  82  59  77 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/MJB



000
FXUS64 KMRX 301849
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
249 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER KS/OK WILL APPROACH THE AREA. IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW...850-700 MB WINDS WILL BECOME
S-SE...ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TOMORROW.
THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT THE MOST CLOUDS AND BEST PRECIP CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SW NC TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A
DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT SHOULD PREVENT PRECIP FROM COMING INTO THE
VALLEY. LIFT IS FAIRLY WEAK HOWEVER...AND APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A 500 MB VORT MAX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THUS POPS WILL STAY IN
THE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...AND ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

TRI APPEARS LIKELY TO SEE ANOTHER RECORD LOW TONIGHT (RECORD IS 56)
AS NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH CALM WINDS.
TYS WILL BE CLOSE (58)...AND THE CHA RECORD SHOULD BE SAFE (58)
WHERE HIGH/MID CLOUDS SHOULD BE THICKER.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO OUR WEST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...PLACING US UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL AID THE RETURN
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. A DISTURBANCE TRACKING ALONG THE
UPPER FLOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL ALSO BRING WEAK DYNAMICS AND
WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS WILL ADD TO NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION AND
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EACH PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH TO ISOLATED CONVECTION. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             61  81  64  82 /   0  20  20  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  59  83  62  80 /   0  10  20  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       58  82  62  81 /   0  10  20  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              53  82  59  77 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/MJB



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOHX 301843
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
143 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH UNUSUALLY COOL,
DRY AIR IN PLACE. HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING INTO THE MID STATE
TODAY AS A RESULT OF A STORM SYSTEM OCCURRING OVER THE PLAINS, BUT
NO ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. NAM MODEL
OUTPUT FROM 12Z BRINGS THE CURRENT PLAINS SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BEGINNING TOMORROW, WITH A BROAD SWATH OF MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MID STATE
OVER THE COMING DAYS, BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL ADVECT OUR WAY
THAT, COMBINED WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY INDICATED BY FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS, THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS (AND A FEW
STORMS) ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL
OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL BECOMING PROGRESSIVE AT THE START OF NEXT
WEEK AND IT FINALLY PULLS EAST OF THE AREA, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDING IN AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING CLOSER TO
SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      62  85  62  86 /  05  10  20  20
CLARKSVILLE    59  84  59  86 /  05  10  10  20
CROSSVILLE     56  79  59  78 /  05  10  30  40
COLUMBIA       62  85  63  85 /  05  20  20  20
LAWRENCEBURG   61  84  63  84 /  05  20  20  30
WAVERLY        60  84  59  86 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




000
FXUS64 KOHX 301843
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
143 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH UNUSUALLY COOL,
DRY AIR IN PLACE. HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING INTO THE MID STATE
TODAY AS A RESULT OF A STORM SYSTEM OCCURRING OVER THE PLAINS, BUT
NO ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. NAM MODEL
OUTPUT FROM 12Z BRINGS THE CURRENT PLAINS SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BEGINNING TOMORROW, WITH A BROAD SWATH OF MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MID STATE
OVER THE COMING DAYS, BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL ADVECT OUR WAY
THAT, COMBINED WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY INDICATED BY FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS, THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS (AND A FEW
STORMS) ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL
OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL BECOMING PROGRESSIVE AT THE START OF NEXT
WEEK AND IT FINALLY PULLS EAST OF THE AREA, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDING IN AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING CLOSER TO
SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      62  85  62  86 /  05  10  20  20
CLARKSVILLE    59  84  59  86 /  05  10  10  20
CROSSVILLE     56  79  59  78 /  05  10  30  40
COLUMBIA       62  85  63  85 /  05  20  20  20
LAWRENCEBURG   61  84  63  84 /  05  20  20  30
WAVERLY        60  84  59  86 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




000
FXUS64 KOHX 301843
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
143 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH UNUSUALLY COOL,
DRY AIR IN PLACE. HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING INTO THE MID STATE
TODAY AS A RESULT OF A STORM SYSTEM OCCURRING OVER THE PLAINS, BUT
NO ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. NAM MODEL
OUTPUT FROM 12Z BRINGS THE CURRENT PLAINS SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BEGINNING TOMORROW, WITH A BROAD SWATH OF MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MID STATE
OVER THE COMING DAYS, BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL ADVECT OUR WAY
THAT, COMBINED WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY INDICATED BY FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS, THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS (AND A FEW
STORMS) ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL
OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL BECOMING PROGRESSIVE AT THE START OF NEXT
WEEK AND IT FINALLY PULLS EAST OF THE AREA, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDING IN AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING CLOSER TO
SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      62  85  62  86 /  05  10  20  20
CLARKSVILLE    59  84  59  86 /  05  10  10  20
CROSSVILLE     56  79  59  78 /  05  10  30  40
COLUMBIA       62  85  63  85 /  05  20  20  20
LAWRENCEBURG   61  84  63  84 /  05  20  20  30
WAVERLY        60  84  59  86 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




000
FXUS64 KOHX 301843
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
143 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH UNUSUALLY COOL,
DRY AIR IN PLACE. HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING INTO THE MID STATE
TODAY AS A RESULT OF A STORM SYSTEM OCCURRING OVER THE PLAINS, BUT
NO ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. NAM MODEL
OUTPUT FROM 12Z BRINGS THE CURRENT PLAINS SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BEGINNING TOMORROW, WITH A BROAD SWATH OF MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MID STATE
OVER THE COMING DAYS, BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL ADVECT OUR WAY
THAT, COMBINED WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY INDICATED BY FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS, THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS (AND A FEW
STORMS) ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL
OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL BECOMING PROGRESSIVE AT THE START OF NEXT
WEEK AND IT FINALLY PULLS EAST OF THE AREA, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDING IN AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING CLOSER TO
SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      62  85  62  86 /  05  10  20  20
CLARKSVILLE    59  84  59  86 /  05  10  10  20
CROSSVILLE     56  79  59  78 /  05  10  30  40
COLUMBIA       62  85  63  85 /  05  20  20  20
LAWRENCEBURG   61  84  63  84 /  05  20  20  30
WAVERLY        60  84  59  86 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




000
FXUS64 KMEG 301802 CCA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
101 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.CORRECTED FOR FORMATTING ISSUES..

.UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING FROM THE ZONE FORECASTS AND TO
MAKE SMALL CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING. A
SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS MOVING INTO OK.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THIS SHORT WAVE ACROSS MUCH OF OK INTO WESTERN AR AND NORTHERN TX.
THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD FURTHER INTO OK
TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF EAST AR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LEFT IN MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
TO BE MINIMUM ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER GRIDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE CHANGES WERE MINOR.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE
MID 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY ENTER FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND REACH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE
DISTURBANCE GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TAKE A MORE EASTWARD
TURN MOVING INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL MAKE THURSDAY THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO ALABAMA
AND WEAKEN SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH.

SOME WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP SOME BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD
EAST TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

CLOUD SHEILD WILL SLOWLY MAKE IT`S WAY EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT..AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z TOMORROW. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
WIND DIRECTIONS AT ALL SITES MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.

SAK

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMEG 301802 CCA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
101 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.CORRECTED FOR FORMATTING ISSUES..

.UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING FROM THE ZONE FORECASTS AND TO
MAKE SMALL CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING. A
SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS MOVING INTO OK.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THIS SHORT WAVE ACROSS MUCH OF OK INTO WESTERN AR AND NORTHERN TX.
THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD FURTHER INTO OK
TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF EAST AR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LEFT IN MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
TO BE MINIMUM ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER GRIDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE CHANGES WERE MINOR.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE
MID 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY ENTER FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND REACH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE
DISTURBANCE GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TAKE A MORE EASTWARD
TURN MOVING INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL MAKE THURSDAY THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO ALABAMA
AND WEAKEN SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH.

SOME WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP SOME BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD
EAST TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

CLOUD SHEILD WILL SLOWLY MAKE IT`S WAY EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT..AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z TOMORROW. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
WIND DIRECTIONS AT ALL SITES MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.

SAK

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 301746
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1246 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION...


&&


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING FROM THE ZONE FORECASTS AND TO
MAKE SMALL CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING. A
SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS MOVING INTO OK.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THIS SHORT WAVE ACROSS MUCH OF OK INTO WESTERN AR AND NORTHERN TX.
THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD FURTHER INTO OK
TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF EAST AR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LEFT IN MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
TO BE MINIMUM ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER GRIDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE CHANGES WERE MINOR.

JCL

DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE
MID 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY ENTER FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND REACH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE
DISTURBANCE GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TAKE A MORE EASTWARD
TURN MOVING INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL MAKE THURSDAY THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO ALABAMA
AND WEAKEN SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH.

SOME WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP SOME BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD
EAST TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS.

ARS

AVIATION...

CLOUD SHEILD WILL SLOWLY MAKE IT`S WAY EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT..AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z TOMORROW. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
WIND DIRECTIONS AT ALL SITES MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.

SAK

&&



&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 301746
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1246 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION...


&&


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING FROM THE ZONE FORECASTS AND TO
MAKE SMALL CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING. A
SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS MOVING INTO OK.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THIS SHORT WAVE ACROSS MUCH OF OK INTO WESTERN AR AND NORTHERN TX.
THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD FURTHER INTO OK
TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF EAST AR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LEFT IN MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
TO BE MINIMUM ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER GRIDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE CHANGES WERE MINOR.

JCL

DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE
MID 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY ENTER FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND REACH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE
DISTURBANCE GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TAKE A MORE EASTWARD
TURN MOVING INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL MAKE THURSDAY THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO ALABAMA
AND WEAKEN SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH.

SOME WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP SOME BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD
EAST TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS.

ARS

AVIATION...

CLOUD SHEILD WILL SLOWLY MAKE IT`S WAY EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT..AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z TOMORROW. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
WIND DIRECTIONS AT ALL SITES MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.

SAK

&&



&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 301719
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
119 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR SOMD FOG AT TRI...ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
AS HIGH OR AS DENSE AS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. WILL HAVE MVFR VIS IN
THE TAF. BROKEN HIGH TO MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 301719
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
119 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR SOMD FOG AT TRI...ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
AS HIGH OR AS DENSE AS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. WILL HAVE MVFR VIS IN
THE TAF. BROKEN HIGH TO MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 301719
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
119 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR SOMD FOG AT TRI...ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
AS HIGH OR AS DENSE AS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. WILL HAVE MVFR VIS IN
THE TAF. BROKEN HIGH TO MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 301719
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
119 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR SOMD FOG AT TRI...ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
AS HIGH OR AS DENSE AS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. WILL HAVE MVFR VIS IN
THE TAF. BROKEN HIGH TO MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KOHX 301717
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1217 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE...
CU DEVELOPMENT WAS BEGINNING AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. SHOULDNT RESULT IN ANY IMPACTS TO ANY TERMINALS. HIGH
CIRRUS DECK WILL SPREAD FROM KCKV TO KCSV THROUGHOUT REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. LIGHT BR POSSIBILITIES
OVERNIGHT AT KCKV AND KCSV POSSIBLY RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS
BUT OTHERWISE VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING BRINGING WITH IT A BIT OF SFC MOISTURE AS DEWS ROSE A BIT
OVER WHAT GUIDANCE HAD SUGGESTED AT 14Z. DONT SUSPECT THIS TO
DRASTICALLY CHANGE THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR TODAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN PRETTY MUCH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SO OVER TIME...CONTINUED
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRY OUT THE SURFACE FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY. THERE
IS A BIT OF CIRROCUMULUS SPREADING IN OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
MORNING WHICH...ACCORDING TO THE RUC/NAM WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITION OF SOME LIGHT AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL
CU. THUS TWEAKED SKY GRIDS AND DEW GRIDS MOSTLY DURING THE MORNING
UPDATE PACKAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

AVIATION...

OTHER THAN BRIEF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND THURSDAY
MORNING AT CKV AND CSV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF THIS 24-HR TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD/CENTERED TO THE
EAST WILL CREATE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES/FILTERED SUNSHINE AS HIGH
CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. LIGHT NWRLY TO NERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AT EACH TERMINAL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION....EARLY THIS MORNING...CONDITIONS WERE CLEAR AND CALM
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...AND APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK FOR RECORD LOWS AROUND DAYBREAK. THE RECORD LOW IN NASHVILLE
FOR JULY 30 IS 58...AND 53 AT CROSSVILLE. PARTS OF THE PLATEAU
WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S THIS MORNING. SOME SHALLOW
GROUND FOG MAY BE SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND
LAKES AND RIVERS.

ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IS ON TAP TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN UNBELIEVABLY
COMFORTABLE FOR JULY. SUNSHINE WILL BE MIXED WITH A FEW CUMULUS
CLOUDS AND SCT-BKN THIN CIRRUS.

TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND RATHER COOL AGAIN. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MIGRATE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AREA AND ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST MID TN.
OTHERWISE...PLEASANT SUMMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

BY FRIDAY... A TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE GULF COAST. A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE TN VALLEY WITH A RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
DRAW IN SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER OUR PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
THE AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MODIFY..SO HIGHS
WILL CREEP UPWARD THROUGH THE 80S.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND....KEEPING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.

INTO NEXT WEEK...THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN...AND ANOTHER DRY
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE OVER OUR WX. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS...AND PERHAPS INTO THE LOWER 90S BY
MIDWEEK...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN TOLERABLE.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

TB12






000
FXUS64 KOHX 301717
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1217 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE...
CU DEVELOPMENT WAS BEGINNING AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. SHOULDNT RESULT IN ANY IMPACTS TO ANY TERMINALS. HIGH
CIRRUS DECK WILL SPREAD FROM KCKV TO KCSV THROUGHOUT REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. LIGHT BR POSSIBILITIES
OVERNIGHT AT KCKV AND KCSV POSSIBLY RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS
BUT OTHERWISE VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING BRINGING WITH IT A BIT OF SFC MOISTURE AS DEWS ROSE A BIT
OVER WHAT GUIDANCE HAD SUGGESTED AT 14Z. DONT SUSPECT THIS TO
DRASTICALLY CHANGE THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR TODAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN PRETTY MUCH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SO OVER TIME...CONTINUED
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRY OUT THE SURFACE FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY. THERE
IS A BIT OF CIRROCUMULUS SPREADING IN OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
MORNING WHICH...ACCORDING TO THE RUC/NAM WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITION OF SOME LIGHT AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL
CU. THUS TWEAKED SKY GRIDS AND DEW GRIDS MOSTLY DURING THE MORNING
UPDATE PACKAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

AVIATION...

OTHER THAN BRIEF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND THURSDAY
MORNING AT CKV AND CSV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF THIS 24-HR TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD/CENTERED TO THE
EAST WILL CREATE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES/FILTERED SUNSHINE AS HIGH
CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. LIGHT NWRLY TO NERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AT EACH TERMINAL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION....EARLY THIS MORNING...CONDITIONS WERE CLEAR AND CALM
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...AND APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK FOR RECORD LOWS AROUND DAYBREAK. THE RECORD LOW IN NASHVILLE
FOR JULY 30 IS 58...AND 53 AT CROSSVILLE. PARTS OF THE PLATEAU
WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S THIS MORNING. SOME SHALLOW
GROUND FOG MAY BE SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND
LAKES AND RIVERS.

ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IS ON TAP TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN UNBELIEVABLY
COMFORTABLE FOR JULY. SUNSHINE WILL BE MIXED WITH A FEW CUMULUS
CLOUDS AND SCT-BKN THIN CIRRUS.

TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND RATHER COOL AGAIN. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MIGRATE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AREA AND ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST MID TN.
OTHERWISE...PLEASANT SUMMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

BY FRIDAY... A TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE GULF COAST. A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE TN VALLEY WITH A RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
DRAW IN SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER OUR PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
THE AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MODIFY..SO HIGHS
WILL CREEP UPWARD THROUGH THE 80S.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND....KEEPING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.

INTO NEXT WEEK...THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN...AND ANOTHER DRY
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE OVER OUR WX. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS...AND PERHAPS INTO THE LOWER 90S BY
MIDWEEK...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN TOLERABLE.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

TB12






000
FXUS64 KOHX 301717
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1217 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE...
CU DEVELOPMENT WAS BEGINNING AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. SHOULDNT RESULT IN ANY IMPACTS TO ANY TERMINALS. HIGH
CIRRUS DECK WILL SPREAD FROM KCKV TO KCSV THROUGHOUT REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. LIGHT BR POSSIBILITIES
OVERNIGHT AT KCKV AND KCSV POSSIBLY RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS
BUT OTHERWISE VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING BRINGING WITH IT A BIT OF SFC MOISTURE AS DEWS ROSE A BIT
OVER WHAT GUIDANCE HAD SUGGESTED AT 14Z. DONT SUSPECT THIS TO
DRASTICALLY CHANGE THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR TODAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN PRETTY MUCH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SO OVER TIME...CONTINUED
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRY OUT THE SURFACE FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY. THERE
IS A BIT OF CIRROCUMULUS SPREADING IN OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
MORNING WHICH...ACCORDING TO THE RUC/NAM WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITION OF SOME LIGHT AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL
CU. THUS TWEAKED SKY GRIDS AND DEW GRIDS MOSTLY DURING THE MORNING
UPDATE PACKAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

AVIATION...

OTHER THAN BRIEF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND THURSDAY
MORNING AT CKV AND CSV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF THIS 24-HR TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD/CENTERED TO THE
EAST WILL CREATE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES/FILTERED SUNSHINE AS HIGH
CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. LIGHT NWRLY TO NERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AT EACH TERMINAL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION....EARLY THIS MORNING...CONDITIONS WERE CLEAR AND CALM
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...AND APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK FOR RECORD LOWS AROUND DAYBREAK. THE RECORD LOW IN NASHVILLE
FOR JULY 30 IS 58...AND 53 AT CROSSVILLE. PARTS OF THE PLATEAU
WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S THIS MORNING. SOME SHALLOW
GROUND FOG MAY BE SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND
LAKES AND RIVERS.

ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IS ON TAP TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN UNBELIEVABLY
COMFORTABLE FOR JULY. SUNSHINE WILL BE MIXED WITH A FEW CUMULUS
CLOUDS AND SCT-BKN THIN CIRRUS.

TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND RATHER COOL AGAIN. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MIGRATE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AREA AND ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST MID TN.
OTHERWISE...PLEASANT SUMMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

BY FRIDAY... A TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE GULF COAST. A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE TN VALLEY WITH A RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
DRAW IN SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER OUR PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
THE AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MODIFY..SO HIGHS
WILL CREEP UPWARD THROUGH THE 80S.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND....KEEPING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.

INTO NEXT WEEK...THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN...AND ANOTHER DRY
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE OVER OUR WX. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS...AND PERHAPS INTO THE LOWER 90S BY
MIDWEEK...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN TOLERABLE.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

TB12






000
FXUS64 KOHX 301717
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1217 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE...
CU DEVELOPMENT WAS BEGINNING AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. SHOULDNT RESULT IN ANY IMPACTS TO ANY TERMINALS. HIGH
CIRRUS DECK WILL SPREAD FROM KCKV TO KCSV THROUGHOUT REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. LIGHT BR POSSIBILITIES
OVERNIGHT AT KCKV AND KCSV POSSIBLY RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS
BUT OTHERWISE VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING BRINGING WITH IT A BIT OF SFC MOISTURE AS DEWS ROSE A BIT
OVER WHAT GUIDANCE HAD SUGGESTED AT 14Z. DONT SUSPECT THIS TO
DRASTICALLY CHANGE THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR TODAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN PRETTY MUCH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SO OVER TIME...CONTINUED
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRY OUT THE SURFACE FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY. THERE
IS A BIT OF CIRROCUMULUS SPREADING IN OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
MORNING WHICH...ACCORDING TO THE RUC/NAM WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITION OF SOME LIGHT AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL
CU. THUS TWEAKED SKY GRIDS AND DEW GRIDS MOSTLY DURING THE MORNING
UPDATE PACKAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

AVIATION...

OTHER THAN BRIEF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND THURSDAY
MORNING AT CKV AND CSV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF THIS 24-HR TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD/CENTERED TO THE
EAST WILL CREATE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES/FILTERED SUNSHINE AS HIGH
CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. LIGHT NWRLY TO NERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AT EACH TERMINAL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION....EARLY THIS MORNING...CONDITIONS WERE CLEAR AND CALM
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...AND APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK FOR RECORD LOWS AROUND DAYBREAK. THE RECORD LOW IN NASHVILLE
FOR JULY 30 IS 58...AND 53 AT CROSSVILLE. PARTS OF THE PLATEAU
WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S THIS MORNING. SOME SHALLOW
GROUND FOG MAY BE SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND
LAKES AND RIVERS.

ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IS ON TAP TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN UNBELIEVABLY
COMFORTABLE FOR JULY. SUNSHINE WILL BE MIXED WITH A FEW CUMULUS
CLOUDS AND SCT-BKN THIN CIRRUS.

TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND RATHER COOL AGAIN. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MIGRATE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AREA AND ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST MID TN.
OTHERWISE...PLEASANT SUMMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

BY FRIDAY... A TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE GULF COAST. A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE TN VALLEY WITH A RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
DRAW IN SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER OUR PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
THE AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MODIFY..SO HIGHS
WILL CREEP UPWARD THROUGH THE 80S.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND....KEEPING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.

INTO NEXT WEEK...THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN...AND ANOTHER DRY
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE OVER OUR WX. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS...AND PERHAPS INTO THE LOWER 90S BY
MIDWEEK...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN TOLERABLE.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

TB12






000
FXUS64 KMRX 301447
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1047 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL AND UNSEASONABLY
COOL DAY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST...WHILE ALOFT A NW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE. NO UPDATE IS NEEDED.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS



000
FXUS64 KMRX 301447
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1047 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL AND UNSEASONABLY
COOL DAY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST...WHILE ALOFT A NW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE. NO UPDATE IS NEEDED.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMEG 301438 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
938 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING FROM THE ZONE FORECASTS AND TO
MAKE SMALL CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING. A
SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS MOVING INTO OK.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THIS SHORT WAVE ACROSS MUCH OF OK INTO WESTERN AR AND NORTHERN TX.
THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD FURTHER INTO OK
TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF EAST AR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LEFT IN MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
TO BE MINIMUM ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER GRIDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE CHANGES WERE MINOR.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE
MID 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY ENTER FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND REACH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE
DISTURBANCE GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TAKE A MORE EASTWARD
TURN MOVING INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL MAKE THURSDAY THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO ALABAMA
AND WEAKEN SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH.

SOME WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP SOME BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD
EAST TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO KJBR AND
KMEM BY 31/12Z. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 301438 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
938 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING FROM THE ZONE FORECASTS AND TO
MAKE SMALL CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING. A
SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS MOVING INTO OK.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THIS SHORT WAVE ACROSS MUCH OF OK INTO WESTERN AR AND NORTHERN TX.
THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD FURTHER INTO OK
TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF EAST AR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LEFT IN MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
TO BE MINIMUM ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER GRIDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE CHANGES WERE MINOR.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE
MID 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY ENTER FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND REACH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE
DISTURBANCE GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TAKE A MORE EASTWARD
TURN MOVING INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL MAKE THURSDAY THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO ALABAMA
AND WEAKEN SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH.

SOME WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP SOME BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD
EAST TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO KJBR AND
KMEM BY 31/12Z. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 301438 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
938 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING FROM THE ZONE FORECASTS AND TO
MAKE SMALL CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING. A
SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS MOVING INTO OK.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THIS SHORT WAVE ACROSS MUCH OF OK INTO WESTERN AR AND NORTHERN TX.
THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD FURTHER INTO OK
TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF EAST AR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LEFT IN MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
TO BE MINIMUM ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER GRIDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE CHANGES WERE MINOR.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE
MID 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY ENTER FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND REACH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE
DISTURBANCE GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TAKE A MORE EASTWARD
TURN MOVING INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL MAKE THURSDAY THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO ALABAMA
AND WEAKEN SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH.

SOME WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP SOME BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD
EAST TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO KJBR AND
KMEM BY 31/12Z. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 301438 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
938 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING FROM THE ZONE FORECASTS AND TO
MAKE SMALL CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING. A
SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS MOVING INTO OK.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THIS SHORT WAVE ACROSS MUCH OF OK INTO WESTERN AR AND NORTHERN TX.
THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD FURTHER INTO OK
TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF EAST AR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LEFT IN MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
TO BE MINIMUM ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER GRIDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE CHANGES WERE MINOR.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE
MID 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY ENTER FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND REACH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE
DISTURBANCE GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TAKE A MORE EASTWARD
TURN MOVING INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL MAKE THURSDAY THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO ALABAMA
AND WEAKEN SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH.

SOME WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP SOME BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD
EAST TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO KJBR AND
KMEM BY 31/12Z. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 301429
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
929 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING BRINGING WITH IT A BIT OF SFC MOISTURE AS DEWS ROSE A BIT
OVER WHAT GUIDANCE HAD SUGGESTED AT 14Z. DONT SUSPECT THIS TO
DRASTICALLY CHANGE THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR TODAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN PRETTY MUCH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SO OVER TIME...CONTINUED
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRY OUT THE SURFACE FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY. THERE
IS A BIT OF CIRROCUMULUS SPREADING IN OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
MORNING WHICH...ACCORDING TO THE RUC/NAM WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITION OF SOME LIGHT AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL
CU. THUS TWEAKED SKY GRIDS AND DEW GRIDS MOSTLY DURING THE MORNING
UPDATE PACKAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

AVIATION...

OTHER THAN BRIEF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND THURSDAY
MORNING AT CKV AND CSV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF THIS 24-HR TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD/CENTERED TO THE
EAST WILL CREATE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES/FILTERED SUNSHINE AS HIGH
CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. LIGHT NWRLY TO NERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AT EACH TERMINAL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION....EARLY THIS MORNING...CONDITIONS WERE CLEAR AND CALM
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...AND APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK FOR RECORD LOWS AROUND DAYBREAK. THE RECORD LOW IN NASHVILLE
FOR JULY 30 IS 58...AND 53 AT CROSSVILLE. PARTS OF THE PLATEAU
WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S THIS MORNING. SOME SHALLOW
GROUND FOG MAY BE SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND
LAKES AND RIVERS.

ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IS ON TAP TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN UNBELIEVABLY
COMFORTABLE FOR JULY. SUNSHINE WILL BE MIXED WITH A FEW CUMULUS
CLOUDS AND SCT-BKN THIN CIRRUS.

TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND RATHER COOL AGAIN. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MIGRATE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AREA AND ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST MID TN.
OTHERWISE...PLEASANT SUMMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

BY FRIDAY... A TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE GULF COAST. A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE TN VALLEY WITH A RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
DRAW IN SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER OUR PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
THE AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MODIFY..SO HIGHS
WILL CREEP UPWARD THROUGH THE 80S.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND....KEEPING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.

INTO NEXT WEEK...THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN...AND ANOTHER DRY
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE OVER OUR WX. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS...AND PERHAPS INTO THE LOWER 90S BY
MIDWEEK...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN TOLERABLE.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

TB12






000
FXUS64 KMEG 301150
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
650 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE
MID 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY ENTER FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND REACH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE
DISTURBANCE GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TAKE A MORE EASTWARD
TURN MOVING INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL MAKE THURSDAY THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO ALABAMA
AND WEAKEN SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH.

SOME WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP SOME BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD
EAST TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO KJBR AND
KMEM BY 31/12Z. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 301150
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
650 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE
MID 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY ENTER FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND REACH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE
DISTURBANCE GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TAKE A MORE EASTWARD
TURN MOVING INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL MAKE THURSDAY THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO ALABAMA
AND WEAKEN SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH.

SOME WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP SOME BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD
EAST TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO KJBR AND
KMEM BY 31/12Z. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 301125
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
625 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...

OTHER THAN BRIEF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND THURSDAY
MORNING AT CKV AND CSV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF THIS 24-HR TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD/CENTERED TO THE
EAST WILL CREATE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES/FILTERED SUNSHINE AS HIGH
CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. LIGHT NWRLY TO NERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AT EACH TERMINAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION....EARLY THIS MORNING...CONDITIONS WERE CLEAR AND CALM
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...AND APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK FOR RECORD LOWS AROUND DAYBREAK. THE RECORD LOW IN NASHVILLE
FOR JULY 30 IS 58...AND 53 AT CROSSVILLE. PARTS OF THE PLATEAU
WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S THIS MORNING. SOME SHALLOW
GROUND FOG MAY BE SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND
LAKES AND RIVERS.

ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IS ON TAP TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN UNBELIEVABLY
COMFORTABLE FOR JULY. SUNSHINE WILL BE MIXED WITH A FEW CUMULUS
CLOUDS AND SCT-BKN THIN CIRRUS.

TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND RATHER COOL AGAIN. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MIGRATE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AREA AND ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST MID TN.
OTHERWISE...PLEASANT SUMMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

BY FRIDAY... A TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE GULF COAST. A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE TN VALLEY WITH A RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
DRAW IN SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER OUR PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
THE AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MODIFY..SO HIGHS
WILL CREEP UPWARD THROUGH THE 80S.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND....KEEPING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.

INTO NEXT WEEK...THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN...AND ANOTHER DRY
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE OVER OUR WX. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS...AND PERHAPS INTO THE LOWER 90S BY
MIDWEEK...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN TOLERABLE.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL




000
FXUS64 KOHX 301125
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
625 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...

OTHER THAN BRIEF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND THURSDAY
MORNING AT CKV AND CSV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF THIS 24-HR TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD/CENTERED TO THE
EAST WILL CREATE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES/FILTERED SUNSHINE AS HIGH
CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. LIGHT NWRLY TO NERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AT EACH TERMINAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION....EARLY THIS MORNING...CONDITIONS WERE CLEAR AND CALM
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...AND APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK FOR RECORD LOWS AROUND DAYBREAK. THE RECORD LOW IN NASHVILLE
FOR JULY 30 IS 58...AND 53 AT CROSSVILLE. PARTS OF THE PLATEAU
WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S THIS MORNING. SOME SHALLOW
GROUND FOG MAY BE SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND
LAKES AND RIVERS.

ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IS ON TAP TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN UNBELIEVABLY
COMFORTABLE FOR JULY. SUNSHINE WILL BE MIXED WITH A FEW CUMULUS
CLOUDS AND SCT-BKN THIN CIRRUS.

TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND RATHER COOL AGAIN. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MIGRATE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AREA AND ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST MID TN.
OTHERWISE...PLEASANT SUMMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

BY FRIDAY... A TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE GULF COAST. A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE TN VALLEY WITH A RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
DRAW IN SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER OUR PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
THE AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MODIFY..SO HIGHS
WILL CREEP UPWARD THROUGH THE 80S.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND....KEEPING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.

INTO NEXT WEEK...THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN...AND ANOTHER DRY
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE OVER OUR WX. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS...AND PERHAPS INTO THE LOWER 90S BY
MIDWEEK...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN TOLERABLE.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL





000
FXUS64 KMRX 301123
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
723 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...VLIFR CONDITIONS AT TRI THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG/LOW
CEILING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO IFR BY 14Z. IFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY/EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG/LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY RE-DEVELOP AT TRI AROUND 09Z THURSDAY.

BESIDES THE FOG AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
GENERALLY BETWEEN 4 AND 7KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 301123
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
723 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...VLIFR CONDITIONS AT TRI THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG/LOW
CEILING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO IFR BY 14Z. IFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY/EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG/LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY RE-DEVELOP AT TRI AROUND 09Z THURSDAY.

BESIDES THE FOG AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
GENERALLY BETWEEN 4 AND 7KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 300850
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
350 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE MID
60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY ENTER FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND REACH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE
DISTURBANCE GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TAKE A MORE EASTWARD
TURN MOVING INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL MAKE THURSDAY THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO ALABAMA
AND WEAKEN SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH.

SOME WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP SOME BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD
EAST TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS.

ARS
&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 00Z THINKING. MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT MKL IN
THE 30/08Z-30/12Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...VFR WEATHER EXPECTED.
PLACED VCSH AT JBR AS RAIN SKIRTS ACROSS THE OZARKS LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT OR CALM WINDS INCREASING TO 5-8 KTS FROM EITHER THE
NORTHEAST OR SOUTHWEST DEPENDING ON SITE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 300850
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
350 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE MID
60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY ENTER FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND REACH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE
DISTURBANCE GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TAKE A MORE EASTWARD
TURN MOVING INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL MAKE THURSDAY THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO ALABAMA
AND WEAKEN SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH.

SOME WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP SOME BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD
EAST TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS.

ARS
&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 00Z THINKING. MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT MKL IN
THE 30/08Z-30/12Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...VFR WEATHER EXPECTED.
PLACED VCSH AT JBR AS RAIN SKIRTS ACROSS THE OZARKS LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT OR CALM WINDS INCREASING TO 5-8 KTS FROM EITHER THE
NORTHEAST OR SOUTHWEST DEPENDING ON SITE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 300725
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
225 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION....EARLY THIS MORNING...CONDITIONS WERE CLEAR AND CALM
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...AND APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK FOR RECORD LOWS AROUND DAYBREAK. THE RECORD LOW IN NASHVILLE
FOR JULY 30 IS 58...AND 53 AT CROSSVILLE. PARTS OF THE PLATEAU
WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S THIS MORNING. SOME SHALLOW
GROUND FOG MAY BE SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND
LAKES AND RIVERS.

ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IS ON TAP TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN UNBELIEVABLY
COMFORTABLE FOR JULY. SUNSHINE WILL BE MIXED WITH A FEW CUMULUS
CLOUDS AND SCT-BKN THIN CIRRUS.

TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND RATHER COOL AGAIN. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MIGRATE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AREA AND ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST MID TN.
OTHERWISE...PLEASANT SUMMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

BY FRIDAY... A TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE GULF COAST. A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE TN VALLEY WITH A RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
DRAW IN SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER OUR PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
THE AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MODIFY..SO HIGHS
WILL CREEP UPWARD THROUGH THE 80S.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND....KEEPING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.

INTO NEXT WEEK...THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN...AND ANOTHER DRY
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE OVER OUR WX. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS...AND PERHAPS INTO THE LOWER 90S BY
MIDWEEK...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN TOLERABLE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AT LATE EVENING AS SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. OTHER THAN SOME LATE NIGHT FOG
TAKING VISIBILITIES DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
EASTERN U.S. ALONG WITH SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP GOOD FLYING
WEATHER IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND WITH MINIMAL
CLOUDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      85  63  86  63 /   0   0  05  10
CLARKSVILLE    83  59  85  61 /   0  05  10  10
CROSSVILLE     78  57  80  61 /   0   0  05  20
COLUMBIA       84  60  85  63 /   0  05  10  10
LAWRENCEBURG   84  62  83  62 /   0  05  20  20
WAVERLY        84  61  85  62 /   0  05  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 300704
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
304 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...RELATIVELY WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE FOG COULD
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. SOME INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FOR SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...SO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE...OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT.

ANOTHER NIGHT OF RECORD/NEAR RECORD LOWS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY
MORNING FOR TRI-CITY AND KNOXVILLE.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT DIFFER SOME ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND RESULTING
PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE NATION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY WITHIN THE
LONG WAVE UPPER PATTERN. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EACH DAY.
THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN BY SUNDAY...AND THEN
LINGER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
POSSIBLE EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE MOUNTAINS. AS FOR TEMPS...
WILL TREND COOLER THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             84  62  84  64 /   0  10  10  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  59  83  62 /   0  10   0  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       82  58  83  62 /   0  10   0  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              79  52  82  59 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 300704
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
304 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...RELATIVELY WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE FOG COULD
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. SOME INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FOR SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...SO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE...OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT.

ANOTHER NIGHT OF RECORD/NEAR RECORD LOWS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY
MORNING FOR TRI-CITY AND KNOXVILLE.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT DIFFER SOME ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND RESULTING
PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE NATION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY WITHIN THE
LONG WAVE UPPER PATTERN. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EACH DAY.
THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN BY SUNDAY...AND THEN
LINGER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
POSSIBLE EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE MOUNTAINS. AS FOR TEMPS...
WILL TREND COOLER THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             84  62  84  64 /   0  10  10  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  59  83  62 /   0  10   0  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       82  58  83  62 /   0  10   0  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              79  52  82  59 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 300704
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
304 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...RELATIVELY WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE FOG COULD
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. SOME INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FOR SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...SO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE...OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT.

ANOTHER NIGHT OF RECORD/NEAR RECORD LOWS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY
MORNING FOR TRI-CITY AND KNOXVILLE.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT DIFFER SOME ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND RESULTING
PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE NATION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY WITHIN THE
LONG WAVE UPPER PATTERN. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EACH DAY.
THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN BY SUNDAY...AND THEN
LINGER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
POSSIBLE EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE MOUNTAINS. AS FOR TEMPS...
WILL TREND COOLER THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             84  62  84  64 /   0  10  10  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  59  83  62 /   0  10   0  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       82  58  83  62 /   0  10   0  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              79  52  82  59 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 300704
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
304 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...RELATIVELY WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE FOG COULD
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. SOME INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FOR SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...SO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE...OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT.

ANOTHER NIGHT OF RECORD/NEAR RECORD LOWS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY
MORNING FOR TRI-CITY AND KNOXVILLE.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT DIFFER SOME ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND RESULTING
PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE NATION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY WITHIN THE
LONG WAVE UPPER PATTERN. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EACH DAY.
THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN BY SUNDAY...AND THEN
LINGER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
POSSIBLE EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE MOUNTAINS. AS FOR TEMPS...
WILL TREND COOLER THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             84  62  84  64 /   0  10  10  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  59  83  62 /   0  10   0  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       82  58  83  62 /   0  10   0  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              79  52  82  59 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 300507
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
107 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL OF STEAM FOG OFF BOONE
LAKE. CURRENTLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH VISIBILITIES AT 3
MILES WITH SCATTERED 200 FEET. HOWEVER...MUCH LOWER VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09-13Z.

BESIDES THE FOG DEVELOPMENT...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AS A DRY
AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
GENERALLY BETWEEN 4 AND 7KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 300507
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
107 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL OF STEAM FOG OFF BOONE
LAKE. CURRENTLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH VISIBILITIES AT 3
MILES WITH SCATTERED 200 FEET. HOWEVER...MUCH LOWER VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09-13Z.

BESIDES THE FOG DEVELOPMENT...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AS A DRY
AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
GENERALLY BETWEEN 4 AND 7KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 300444
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1144 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO RAISE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR A FEW DEGREES.

DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP THE MID
SOUTH UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ALSO ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO SKIRT WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE
EAST. ALTHOUGH LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE TONIGHT...HAVE RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT AND ANTICIPATED TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED. FORECAST
UPDATES WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...COURTESY OF A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. THIS LONGWAVE TROF WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT WITH
THE BREAKDOWN OF AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
OCEAN.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOWERING MIDLEVEL
HEIGHTS AND AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. NAM
925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED 1C TO 2C COOLER THAN TODAY. CLOUD COVER
AND COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPS. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT COVERAGE OF BOTH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THIS PATTERN IS NOT TOO
UNLIKE JULY 18...WHEN TEMPS STRUGGLED TO REACH 70. THERE IS SOME
BUST POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY...ANY AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON SUN WILL
BOOST TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY ALSO BE A BIT
COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...PARTICULARLY IF CLOUDS PERSIST
INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH OF THE SUMMER...GFS
MOS DAYTIME HIGHS APPEAR TO SHOW A WARM BIAS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENCROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPS ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY AUGUST VALUES BY
AROUND THIS TIME NEXT WEEK.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 00Z THINKING. MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT MKL IN
THE 30/08Z-30/12Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...VFR WEATHER EXPECTED.
PLACED VCSH AT JBR AS RAIN SKIRTS ACROSS THE OZARKS LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT OR CALM WINDS INCREASING TO 5-8 KTS FROM EITHER THE
NORTHEAST OR SOUTHWEST DEPENDING ON SITE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 300426
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1126 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AT LATE EVENING AS SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. OTHER THAN SOME LATE NIGHT FOG
TAKING VISIBILITIES DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
EASTERN U.S. ALONG WITH SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP GOOD FLYING
WEATHER IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND WITH MINIMAL
CLOUDS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 300426
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1126 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AT LATE EVENING AS SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. OTHER THAN SOME LATE NIGHT FOG
TAKING VISIBILITIES DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
EASTERN U.S. ALONG WITH SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP GOOD FLYING
WEATHER IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND WITH MINIMAL
CLOUDS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KMEG 300146
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
846 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO RAISE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP THE MID
SOUTH UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ALSO ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO SKIRT WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE
EAST. ALTHOUGH LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE TONIGHT...HAVE RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT AND ANTICIPATED TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED. FORECAST
UPDATES WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...COURTESY OF A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. THIS LONGWAVE TROF WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT WITH
THE BREAKDOWN OF AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
OCEAN.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOWERING MIDLEVEL
HEIGHTS AND AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. NAM
925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED 1C TO 2C COOLER THAN TODAY. CLOUD COVER
AND COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPS. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT COVERAGE OF BOTH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THIS PATTERN IS NOT TOO
UNLIKE JULY 18...WHEN TEMPS STRUGGLED TO REACH 70. THERE IS SOME
BUST POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY...ANY AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON SUN WILL
BOOST TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY ALSO BE A BIT
COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...PARTICULARLY IF CLOUDS PERSIST
INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH OF THE SUMMER...GFS
MOS DAYTIME HIGHS APPEAR TO SHOW A WARM BIAS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENCROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPS ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY AUGUST VALUES BY
AROUND THIS TIME NEXT WEEK.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT MKL TOWARDS SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...VFR
WEATHER THIS PERIOD. LIGHT OR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
5-8 KTS FROM EITHER THE NORTHEAST OR SOUTHWEST DEPENDING ON SITE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 300146
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
846 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO RAISE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP THE MID
SOUTH UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ALSO ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO SKIRT WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE
EAST. ALTHOUGH LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE TONIGHT...HAVE RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT AND ANTICIPATED TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED. FORECAST
UPDATES WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...COURTESY OF A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. THIS LONGWAVE TROF WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT WITH
THE BREAKDOWN OF AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
OCEAN.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOWERING MIDLEVEL
HEIGHTS AND AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. NAM
925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED 1C TO 2C COOLER THAN TODAY. CLOUD COVER
AND COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPS. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT COVERAGE OF BOTH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THIS PATTERN IS NOT TOO
UNLIKE JULY 18...WHEN TEMPS STRUGGLED TO REACH 70. THERE IS SOME
BUST POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY...ANY AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON SUN WILL
BOOST TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY ALSO BE A BIT
COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...PARTICULARLY IF CLOUDS PERSIST
INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH OF THE SUMMER...GFS
MOS DAYTIME HIGHS APPEAR TO SHOW A WARM BIAS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENCROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPS ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY AUGUST VALUES BY
AROUND THIS TIME NEXT WEEK.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT MKL TOWARDS SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...VFR
WEATHER THIS PERIOD. LIGHT OR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
5-8 KTS FROM EITHER THE NORTHEAST OR SOUTHWEST DEPENDING ON SITE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 300141
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
841 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...

SKIES HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY CLEARED ACROSS THE MID STATE...AND
WITH UNUSUALLY LOW DEWPOINTS FOR LATE JULY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM NORTH WINDS...TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. STILL ANTICIPATE NEAR RECORD OR RECORD LOWS
IN THE 50S TONIGHT AND HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO TEMPS. SOME
LOWS IN THE 40S WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ON THE PLATEAU. ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT I CAN SEE IS MODELS ADVERTISING CIRRUS SPREADING INTO
THE CWA FROM THE WEST TOWARDS SUNRISE...BUT CURRENTLY DOES NOT
APPEAR THIS CIRRUS WILL BE THICK OR EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO AFFECT
TEMPERATURES. ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO ADD PATCHY FOG
MENTION IN RIVER VALLEYS...BUT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY LARGE ENOUGH IN MOST AREAS TO PREVENT ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD OR DENSE.

SHAMBURGER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
GOOD FLYING WEATHER NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND WITH SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER HIGH PLAINS WITH RIDGING DOWN INTO DEEP SOUTH.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU FIELD QUITE EVIDENT ON LATEST VISIBLE
BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF DIMINISHING AS SUN BEGINS TO SET. COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT BOTH CLARKSVILLE AND CROSSVILLE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55





000
FXUS64 KOHX 300141
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
841 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...

SKIES HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY CLEARED ACROSS THE MID STATE...AND
WITH UNUSUALLY LOW DEWPOINTS FOR LATE JULY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM NORTH WINDS...TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. STILL ANTICIPATE NEAR RECORD OR RECORD LOWS
IN THE 50S TONIGHT AND HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO TEMPS. SOME
LOWS IN THE 40S WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ON THE PLATEAU. ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT I CAN SEE IS MODELS ADVERTISING CIRRUS SPREADING INTO
THE CWA FROM THE WEST TOWARDS SUNRISE...BUT CURRENTLY DOES NOT
APPEAR THIS CIRRUS WILL BE THICK OR EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO AFFECT
TEMPERATURES. ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO ADD PATCHY FOG
MENTION IN RIVER VALLEYS...BUT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY LARGE ENOUGH IN MOST AREAS TO PREVENT ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD OR DENSE.

SHAMBURGER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
GOOD FLYING WEATHER NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND WITH SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER HIGH PLAINS WITH RIDGING DOWN INTO DEEP SOUTH.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU FIELD QUITE EVIDENT ON LATEST VISIBLE
BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF DIMINISHING AS SUN BEGINS TO SET. COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT BOTH CLARKSVILLE AND CROSSVILLE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55





000
FXUS64 KOHX 300141
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
841 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...

SKIES HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY CLEARED ACROSS THE MID STATE...AND
WITH UNUSUALLY LOW DEWPOINTS FOR LATE JULY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM NORTH WINDS...TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. STILL ANTICIPATE NEAR RECORD OR RECORD LOWS
IN THE 50S TONIGHT AND HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO TEMPS. SOME
LOWS IN THE 40S WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ON THE PLATEAU. ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT I CAN SEE IS MODELS ADVERTISING CIRRUS SPREADING INTO
THE CWA FROM THE WEST TOWARDS SUNRISE...BUT CURRENTLY DOES NOT
APPEAR THIS CIRRUS WILL BE THICK OR EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO AFFECT
TEMPERATURES. ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO ADD PATCHY FOG
MENTION IN RIVER VALLEYS...BUT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY LARGE ENOUGH IN MOST AREAS TO PREVENT ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD OR DENSE.

SHAMBURGER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
GOOD FLYING WEATHER NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND WITH SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER HIGH PLAINS WITH RIDGING DOWN INTO DEEP SOUTH.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU FIELD QUITE EVIDENT ON LATEST VISIBLE
BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF DIMINISHING AS SUN BEGINS TO SET. COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT BOTH CLARKSVILLE AND CROSSVILLE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55





000
FXUS64 KOHX 300141
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
841 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...

SKIES HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY CLEARED ACROSS THE MID STATE...AND
WITH UNUSUALLY LOW DEWPOINTS FOR LATE JULY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM NORTH WINDS...TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. STILL ANTICIPATE NEAR RECORD OR RECORD LOWS
IN THE 50S TONIGHT AND HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO TEMPS. SOME
LOWS IN THE 40S WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ON THE PLATEAU. ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT I CAN SEE IS MODELS ADVERTISING CIRRUS SPREADING INTO
THE CWA FROM THE WEST TOWARDS SUNRISE...BUT CURRENTLY DOES NOT
APPEAR THIS CIRRUS WILL BE THICK OR EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO AFFECT
TEMPERATURES. ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO ADD PATCHY FOG
MENTION IN RIVER VALLEYS...BUT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY LARGE ENOUGH IN MOST AREAS TO PREVENT ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD OR DENSE.

SHAMBURGER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
GOOD FLYING WEATHER NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND WITH SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER HIGH PLAINS WITH RIDGING DOWN INTO DEEP SOUTH.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU FIELD QUITE EVIDENT ON LATEST VISIBLE
BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF DIMINISHING AS SUN BEGINS TO SET. COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT BOTH CLARKSVILLE AND CROSSVILLE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55





000
FXUS64 KMRX 300119
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
919 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOR TONIGHT GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RECORD BREAKING LOW TEMPS. RECORDS
FOR JULY 30 INCLUDE:

CHA 58/1969...TYS 58/1874 AND TRI 56/2013

ONLY CHANGES WILL BE TO TWEAK SKY COVER...HOURLY TEMPS...AND DEW
POINTS A BIT. WILL ALSO ADD NEAR RECORD LOW WORDING TO ZFP. UPDATE
OUT SOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             57  85  62  86 /   0   0  10  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  55  81  61  85 /   0   0  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       55  82  59  85 /   0   0  10  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              52  79  52  84 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW



000
FXUS64 KMRX 300119
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
919 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOR TONIGHT GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RECORD BREAKING LOW TEMPS. RECORDS
FOR JULY 30 INCLUDE:

CHA 58/1969...TYS 58/1874 AND TRI 56/2013

ONLY CHANGES WILL BE TO TWEAK SKY COVER...HOURLY TEMPS...AND DEW
POINTS A BIT. WILL ALSO ADD NEAR RECORD LOW WORDING TO ZFP. UPDATE
OUT SOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             57  85  62  86 /   0   0  10  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  55  81  61  85 /   0   0  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       55  82  59  85 /   0   0  10  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              52  79  52  84 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 292328
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
728 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...DRY AND COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. SHOULD
BE VFR WITH A CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR THE MOST PART. MAY BE
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCE AT TRI. WILL
INCLUDE MVFR VIS AT TRI FOR A SEVERAL HOURS...AND LOWER CONDITIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 292328
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
728 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...DRY AND COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. SHOULD
BE VFR WITH A CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR THE MOST PART. MAY BE
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCE AT TRI. WILL
INCLUDE MVFR VIS AT TRI FOR A SEVERAL HOURS...AND LOWER CONDITIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 292328
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
728 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...DRY AND COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. SHOULD
BE VFR WITH A CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR THE MOST PART. MAY BE
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCE AT TRI. WILL
INCLUDE MVFR VIS AT TRI FOR A SEVERAL HOURS...AND LOWER CONDITIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 292328
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
728 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...DRY AND COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. SHOULD
BE VFR WITH A CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR THE MOST PART. MAY BE
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCE AT TRI. WILL
INCLUDE MVFR VIS AT TRI FOR A SEVERAL HOURS...AND LOWER CONDITIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW




000
FXUS64 KMEG 292323
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
623 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...COURTESY OF A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. THIS LONGWAVE TROF WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT WITH
THE BREAKDOWN OF AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
OCEAN.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOWERING MIDLEVEL
HEIGHTS AND AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. NAM
925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED 1C TO 2C COOLER THAN TODAY. CLOUD COVER
AND COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPS. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT COVERAGE OF BOTH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THIS PATTERN IS NOT TOO
UNLIKE JULY 18...WHEN TEMPS STRUGGLED TO REACH 70. THERE IS SOME
BUST POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY...ANY AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON SUN WILL
BOOST TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY ALSO BE A BIT
COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...PARTICULARLY IF CLOUDS PERSIST
INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH OF THE SUMMER...GFS
MOS DAYTIME HIGHS APPEAR TO SHOW A WARM BIAS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENCROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPS ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY AUGUST VALUES BY
AROUND THIS TIME NEXT WEEK.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT MKL TOWARDS SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...VFR
WEATHER THIS PERIOD. LIGHT OR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
5-8 KTS FROM EITHER THE NORTHEAST OR SOUTHWEST DEPENDING ON SITE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 292323
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
623 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...COURTESY OF A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. THIS LONGWAVE TROF WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT WITH
THE BREAKDOWN OF AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
OCEAN.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOWERING MIDLEVEL
HEIGHTS AND AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. NAM
925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED 1C TO 2C COOLER THAN TODAY. CLOUD COVER
AND COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPS. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT COVERAGE OF BOTH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THIS PATTERN IS NOT TOO
UNLIKE JULY 18...WHEN TEMPS STRUGGLED TO REACH 70. THERE IS SOME
BUST POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY...ANY AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON SUN WILL
BOOST TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY ALSO BE A BIT
COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...PARTICULARLY IF CLOUDS PERSIST
INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH OF THE SUMMER...GFS
MOS DAYTIME HIGHS APPEAR TO SHOW A WARM BIAS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENCROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPS ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY AUGUST VALUES BY
AROUND THIS TIME NEXT WEEK.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT MKL TOWARDS SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...VFR
WEATHER THIS PERIOD. LIGHT OR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
5-8 KTS FROM EITHER THE NORTHEAST OR SOUTHWEST DEPENDING ON SITE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 292323
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
623 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
GOOD FLYING WEATHER NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND WITH SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER HIGH PLAINS WITH RIDGING DOWN INTO DEEP SOUTH.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU FIELD QUITE EVIDENT ON LATEST VISIBLE
BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF DIMINISHING AS SUN BEGINS TO SET. COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT BOTH CLARKSVILLE AND CROSSVILLE.



&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 292035
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
335 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN ALLOWING
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME COOL AIR STRATOCU OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER, JUST LIKE YESTERDAY, YOU CAN EXPECT CLOUDS TO
EVAPORATE AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN, LEAVING US WITH SOME LOW SFC
DEW POINTS, CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
BOTTOM OUT NEAR OR BELOW LAST NIGHTS MINIMA, WHICH MEANS SOME
NEAR RECORD CHILL AND SUNRISE TEMPS IN THE 50S. BOTH NAM AND MAV
MOS SHOW NASHVILLE MIN TEMP DROPPING INTO THE 57 TO 59 DEG RANGE,
WHICH--IF IT HAPPENS--WILL MAKE THE FOURTH TIME THIS MONTH THAT
THE TEMP IN NASHVILLE HAS BOTTOMED OUT IN THE 50S. THAT WOULD MAKE
FOR A RATHER RARE EVENT, SINCE FOUR DAYS IN JULY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
HASN`T HAPPENED IN NASHVILLE SINCE 1976!

THE RECORD LOW IN NASHVILLE FOR JULY 30 IS 58, AND 53 AT
CROSSVILLE. BOTH OF THOSE TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY BE WITHIN
REACH TONIGHT. THE DAILY RECORDS AT BOTH NASHVILLE AND CROSSVILLE
DATE BACK TO 1965.

ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY, AS HIGHS TOP OUT
MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 70S INTO THE MIDDLE 80S.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD
INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX AREA BY THURSDAY AND ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVER AT LEAST WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

BY FRIDAY, A MOIST FLOW OF AIR IN THE 850-700MB LAYER ALSO PUSHES
WESTWARD FROM GEORGIA AND CAROLINAS BRINGING AN INFUSION OF
GREATER CLOUD COVER OVER THE EAST. THUS, EXPECT A VARIABLY CLOUDY
DAY ON FRIDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
AT LEAST RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S MOST AREAS. WILL
ALSO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY SOUTH AND EAST.

DECENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY, WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING TO BE FOCUSED
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS, SOUTH OF A VERY WEAK
SFC TROUGH AXIS.

.LONG TERM...BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY), ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA ONCE AGAIN DROPS IN ON US FROM
THE NORTH, BRINGING ALONG MORE DRY WEATHER AND HOLDING ANY
SIGNIFICANT SUMMER HEAT AT BAY. INDEED, DON`T REALLY SEE ANY
90-DEGREE HEAT AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      58  85  63  85 /   0   0  05  10
CLARKSVILLE    54  84  59  84 /   0   0  05  10
CROSSVILLE     53  77  57  78 /   0   0  05  10
COLUMBIA       56  84  61  84 /   0   0  05  10
LAWRENCEBURG   56  84  62  84 /   0   0  05  10
WAVERLY        55  84  61  84 /   0   0  05  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 292035
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
335 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN ALLOWING
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME COOL AIR STRATOCU OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER, JUST LIKE YESTERDAY, YOU CAN EXPECT CLOUDS TO
EVAPORATE AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN, LEAVING US WITH SOME LOW SFC
DEW POINTS, CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
BOTTOM OUT NEAR OR BELOW LAST NIGHTS MINIMA, WHICH MEANS SOME
NEAR RECORD CHILL AND SUNRISE TEMPS IN THE 50S. BOTH NAM AND MAV
MOS SHOW NASHVILLE MIN TEMP DROPPING INTO THE 57 TO 59 DEG RANGE,
WHICH--IF IT HAPPENS--WILL MAKE THE FOURTH TIME THIS MONTH THAT
THE TEMP IN NASHVILLE HAS BOTTOMED OUT IN THE 50S. THAT WOULD MAKE
FOR A RATHER RARE EVENT, SINCE FOUR DAYS IN JULY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
HASN`T HAPPENED IN NASHVILLE SINCE 1976!

THE RECORD LOW IN NASHVILLE FOR JULY 30 IS 58, AND 53 AT
CROSSVILLE. BOTH OF THOSE TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY BE WITHIN
REACH TONIGHT. THE DAILY RECORDS AT BOTH NASHVILLE AND CROSSVILLE
DATE BACK TO 1965.

ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY, AS HIGHS TOP OUT
MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 70S INTO THE MIDDLE 80S.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD
INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX AREA BY THURSDAY AND ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVER AT LEAST WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

BY FRIDAY, A MOIST FLOW OF AIR IN THE 850-700MB LAYER ALSO PUSHES
WESTWARD FROM GEORGIA AND CAROLINAS BRINGING AN INFUSION OF
GREATER CLOUD COVER OVER THE EAST. THUS, EXPECT A VARIABLY CLOUDY
DAY ON FRIDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
AT LEAST RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S MOST AREAS. WILL
ALSO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY SOUTH AND EAST.

DECENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY, WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING TO BE FOCUSED
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS, SOUTH OF A VERY WEAK
SFC TROUGH AXIS.

.LONG TERM...BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY), ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA ONCE AGAIN DROPS IN ON US FROM
THE NORTH, BRINGING ALONG MORE DRY WEATHER AND HOLDING ANY
SIGNIFICANT SUMMER HEAT AT BAY. INDEED, DON`T REALLY SEE ANY
90-DEGREE HEAT AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      58  85  63  85 /   0   0  05  10
CLARKSVILLE    54  84  59  84 /   0   0  05  10
CROSSVILLE     53  77  57  78 /   0   0  05  10
COLUMBIA       56  84  61  84 /   0   0  05  10
LAWRENCEBURG   56  84  62  84 /   0   0  05  10
WAVERLY        55  84  61  84 /   0   0  05  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 292035
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
335 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN ALLOWING
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME COOL AIR STRATOCU OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER, JUST LIKE YESTERDAY, YOU CAN EXPECT CLOUDS TO
EVAPORATE AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN, LEAVING US WITH SOME LOW SFC
DEW POINTS, CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
BOTTOM OUT NEAR OR BELOW LAST NIGHTS MINIMA, WHICH MEANS SOME
NEAR RECORD CHILL AND SUNRISE TEMPS IN THE 50S. BOTH NAM AND MAV
MOS SHOW NASHVILLE MIN TEMP DROPPING INTO THE 57 TO 59 DEG RANGE,
WHICH--IF IT HAPPENS--WILL MAKE THE FOURTH TIME THIS MONTH THAT
THE TEMP IN NASHVILLE HAS BOTTOMED OUT IN THE 50S. THAT WOULD MAKE
FOR A RATHER RARE EVENT, SINCE FOUR DAYS IN JULY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
HASN`T HAPPENED IN NASHVILLE SINCE 1976!

THE RECORD LOW IN NASHVILLE FOR JULY 30 IS 58, AND 53 AT
CROSSVILLE. BOTH OF THOSE TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY BE WITHIN
REACH TONIGHT. THE DAILY RECORDS AT BOTH NASHVILLE AND CROSSVILLE
DATE BACK TO 1965.

ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY, AS HIGHS TOP OUT
MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 70S INTO THE MIDDLE 80S.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD
INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX AREA BY THURSDAY AND ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVER AT LEAST WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

BY FRIDAY, A MOIST FLOW OF AIR IN THE 850-700MB LAYER ALSO PUSHES
WESTWARD FROM GEORGIA AND CAROLINAS BRINGING AN INFUSION OF
GREATER CLOUD COVER OVER THE EAST. THUS, EXPECT A VARIABLY CLOUDY
DAY ON FRIDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
AT LEAST RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S MOST AREAS. WILL
ALSO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY SOUTH AND EAST.

DECENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY, WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING TO BE FOCUSED
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS, SOUTH OF A VERY WEAK
SFC TROUGH AXIS.

.LONG TERM...BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY), ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA ONCE AGAIN DROPS IN ON US FROM
THE NORTH, BRINGING ALONG MORE DRY WEATHER AND HOLDING ANY
SIGNIFICANT SUMMER HEAT AT BAY. INDEED, DON`T REALLY SEE ANY
90-DEGREE HEAT AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      58  85  63  85 /   0   0  05  10
CLARKSVILLE    54  84  59  84 /   0   0  05  10
CROSSVILLE     53  77  57  78 /   0   0  05  10
COLUMBIA       56  84  61  84 /   0   0  05  10
LAWRENCEBURG   56  84  62  84 /   0   0  05  10
WAVERLY        55  84  61  84 /   0   0  05  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 292035
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
335 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN ALLOWING
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME COOL AIR STRATOCU OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER, JUST LIKE YESTERDAY, YOU CAN EXPECT CLOUDS TO
EVAPORATE AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN, LEAVING US WITH SOME LOW SFC
DEW POINTS, CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
BOTTOM OUT NEAR OR BELOW LAST NIGHTS MINIMA, WHICH MEANS SOME
NEAR RECORD CHILL AND SUNRISE TEMPS IN THE 50S. BOTH NAM AND MAV
MOS SHOW NASHVILLE MIN TEMP DROPPING INTO THE 57 TO 59 DEG RANGE,
WHICH--IF IT HAPPENS--WILL MAKE THE FOURTH TIME THIS MONTH THAT
THE TEMP IN NASHVILLE HAS BOTTOMED OUT IN THE 50S. THAT WOULD MAKE
FOR A RATHER RARE EVENT, SINCE FOUR DAYS IN JULY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
HASN`T HAPPENED IN NASHVILLE SINCE 1976!

THE RECORD LOW IN NASHVILLE FOR JULY 30 IS 58, AND 53 AT
CROSSVILLE. BOTH OF THOSE TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY BE WITHIN
REACH TONIGHT. THE DAILY RECORDS AT BOTH NASHVILLE AND CROSSVILLE
DATE BACK TO 1965.

ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY, AS HIGHS TOP OUT
MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 70S INTO THE MIDDLE 80S.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD
INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX AREA BY THURSDAY AND ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVER AT LEAST WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

BY FRIDAY, A MOIST FLOW OF AIR IN THE 850-700MB LAYER ALSO PUSHES
WESTWARD FROM GEORGIA AND CAROLINAS BRINGING AN INFUSION OF
GREATER CLOUD COVER OVER THE EAST. THUS, EXPECT A VARIABLY CLOUDY
DAY ON FRIDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
AT LEAST RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S MOST AREAS. WILL
ALSO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY SOUTH AND EAST.

DECENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY, WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING TO BE FOCUSED
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS, SOUTH OF A VERY WEAK
SFC TROUGH AXIS.

.LONG TERM...BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY), ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA ONCE AGAIN DROPS IN ON US FROM
THE NORTH, BRINGING ALONG MORE DRY WEATHER AND HOLDING ANY
SIGNIFICANT SUMMER HEAT AT BAY. INDEED, DON`T REALLY SEE ANY
90-DEGREE HEAT AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      58  85  63  85 /   0   0  05  10
CLARKSVILLE    54  84  59  84 /   0   0  05  10
CROSSVILLE     53  77  57  78 /   0   0  05  10
COLUMBIA       56  84  61  84 /   0   0  05  10
LAWRENCEBURG   56  84  62  84 /   0   0  05  10
WAVERLY        55  84  61  84 /   0   0  05  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KMEG 291937
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
237 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...COURTESY OF A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. THIS LONGWAVE TROF WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT WITH
THE BREAKDOWN OF AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
OCEAN.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOWERING MIDLEVEL
HEIGHTS AND AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. NAM
925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED 1C TO 2C COOLER THAN TODAY. CLOUD COVER
AND COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPS. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT COVERAGE OF BOTH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THIS PATTERN IS NOT TOO
UNLIKE JULY 18...WHEN TEMPS STRUGGLED TO REACH 70. THERE IS SOME
BUST POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY...ANY AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON SUN WILL
BOOST TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY ALSO BE A BIT
COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...PARTICULARLY IF CLOUDS PERSIST
INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH OF THE SUMMER...GFS
MOS DAYTIME HIGHS APPEAR TO SHOW A WARM BIAS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENCROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPS ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY AUGUST VALUES BY
AROUND THIS TIME NEXT WEEK.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT MKL BETWEEN 29/08-12Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
N/NE WINDS BETWEEN 7-9 KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 3 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT
AND INCREASE TO 5-6 KTS AFTER 30/15Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

PWB




000
FXUS64 KMEG 291937
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
237 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...COURTESY OF A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. THIS LONGWAVE TROF WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT WITH
THE BREAKDOWN OF AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
OCEAN.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOWERING MIDLEVEL
HEIGHTS AND AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. NAM
925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED 1C TO 2C COOLER THAN TODAY. CLOUD COVER
AND COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPS. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT COVERAGE OF BOTH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THIS PATTERN IS NOT TOO
UNLIKE JULY 18...WHEN TEMPS STRUGGLED TO REACH 70. THERE IS SOME
BUST POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY...ANY AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON SUN WILL
BOOST TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY ALSO BE A BIT
COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...PARTICULARLY IF CLOUDS PERSIST
INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH OF THE SUMMER...GFS
MOS DAYTIME HIGHS APPEAR TO SHOW A WARM BIAS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENCROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPS ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY AUGUST VALUES BY
AROUND THIS TIME NEXT WEEK.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT MKL BETWEEN 29/08-12Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
N/NE WINDS BETWEEN 7-9 KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 3 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT
AND INCREASE TO 5-6 KTS AFTER 30/15Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

PWB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 291912
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...ANOTHER CHILLY JULY NIGHT IN
STORE TONIGHT WITH RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AS THE
STRATO CU DISSIPATES AND WINDSPEED DIMINISHES. THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW WITH THE
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE. WOULD EXPECT MORE FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS TO FORM DURING THE DAY. STAYED JUST UNDER MAX TEMP
GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
NORTH. SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE MAY WARM INTO THE MID 80S.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE LONGER TERM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY BUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST. THE MAJORITY OF
RAINFALL WILL BE ENHANCED BY TOPOGRAPHY AND ALSO BY A FEW EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE TROUGH.

THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT
LEAST NEXT MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE MODEL RUNS IT APPEARS
THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND THE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHICH SHOULD TAKE RAIN CHANCES WITH IT PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             57  85  62  86 /   0   0  10  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  55  81  61  85 /   0   0  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       55  82  59  85 /   0   0  10  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              52  79  52  84 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 291912
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...ANOTHER CHILLY JULY NIGHT IN
STORE TONIGHT WITH RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AS THE
STRATO CU DISSIPATES AND WINDSPEED DIMINISHES. THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW WITH THE
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE. WOULD EXPECT MORE FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS TO FORM DURING THE DAY. STAYED JUST UNDER MAX TEMP
GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
NORTH. SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE MAY WARM INTO THE MID 80S.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE LONGER TERM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY BUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST. THE MAJORITY OF
RAINFALL WILL BE ENHANCED BY TOPOGRAPHY AND ALSO BY A FEW EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE TROUGH.

THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT
LEAST NEXT MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE MODEL RUNS IT APPEARS
THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND THE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHICH SHOULD TAKE RAIN CHANCES WITH IT PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             57  85  62  86 /   0   0  10  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  55  81  61  85 /   0   0  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       55  82  59  85 /   0   0  10  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              52  79  52  84 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 291747
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
147 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...UPPER TROUGH GENERATING SOME SC ACROSS THE GREAT
VALLEY. SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM FOR FLIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
LATE TONIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG DETERIORATING TO IFR AT
TRI BUT VFR SHOULD BE THE RULE FROM 13Z THROUGH THE END OF THE
VALID FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMEG 291721
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1221 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE
MID 70S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CENTRAL KANSAS AND
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH WESTERN
ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING...MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL FINALLY
TURN EAST AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ON THURSDAY SO
THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH NORTH
MISSISSIPPI HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHICH WILL BE BRING AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT MKL BETWEEN 29/08-12Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
N/NE WINDS BETWEEN 7-9 KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 3 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT
AND INCREASE TO 5-6 KTS AFTER 30/15Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 291721
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1221 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE
MID 70S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CENTRAL KANSAS AND
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH WESTERN
ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING...MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL FINALLY
TURN EAST AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ON THURSDAY SO
THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH NORTH
MISSISSIPPI HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHICH WILL BE BRING AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT MKL BETWEEN 29/08-12Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
N/NE WINDS BETWEEN 7-9 KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 3 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT
AND INCREASE TO 5-6 KTS AFTER 30/15Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 291721
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1221 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE
MID 70S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CENTRAL KANSAS AND
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH WESTERN
ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING...MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL FINALLY
TURN EAST AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ON THURSDAY SO
THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH NORTH
MISSISSIPPI HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHICH WILL BE BRING AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT MKL BETWEEN 29/08-12Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
N/NE WINDS BETWEEN 7-9 KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 3 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT
AND INCREASE TO 5-6 KTS AFTER 30/15Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 291721
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1221 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE
MID 70S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CENTRAL KANSAS AND
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH WESTERN
ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING...MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL FINALLY
TURN EAST AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ON THURSDAY SO
THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH NORTH
MISSISSIPPI HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHICH WILL BE BRING AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT MKL BETWEEN 29/08-12Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
N/NE WINDS BETWEEN 7-9 KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 3 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT
AND INCREASE TO 5-6 KTS AFTER 30/15Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 291700
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1200 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...A LOVELY VFR DAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
WITH A SCATTERED CU FIELD AND SLIGHTLY GUSTY WINDS AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY TIGHT. LOOK FOR THE GRADIENT
TO RELAX THIS EVENING WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF AND LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT CKV AND CSV. OTHERWISE, IT`S GOOD FLYING
WEATHER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

AVIATION...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING INTO MIDDLE TN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHILE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUE FROM NW TO SE IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT FROM TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS. THESE DISTURBANCES
MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCT-BKN CU AND MAYBE EVEN A STRAY SHOWER
OR TWO. CU NEAR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AS A RESULT OF ONE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES HAS DROPPED CIGS AT CSV TO IFR BRIEFLY.
HANDLED IFR CONDITIONS IN A TEMPO WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.

KEPT THE TAFS DRY BUT CONTINUED AFTERNOON CU IN ALL TAF SITES.
NRLY WINDS FROM 8-14 KTS ON AVERAGE CAN BE EXPECTED TIL SUNDOWN.
SOME MVFR-IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR CKV AND CSV BEYOND
06Z WEDNESDAY BUT LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...JUST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80
TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
SUNSHINE WILL BE MIXED WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
SLIDE DOWN TO THE TN VALLEY...BRINGING NEAR- RECORD LOWS BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS AROUND 1 DEGREE ABOVE
THE RECORDS.

RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY, JULY 30TH INCLUDE:

NASHVILLE 58 DEGS (SET IN 1965)
CROSSVILLE 53 DEGS (SET IN 1965)

SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG RIVERS
AND LAKES.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A TROUGH WILL SET UP FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...DOWN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND TO THE GULF
COAST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AND GREATER
POPS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND DEEP SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE...BUT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND UNDER THE TROUGH AND BROKEN DAYTIME CLOUDINESS.

INTO NEXT WEEK...THE ELONGATED TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OUT AS
HEIGHTS RISE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...MORE HUMIDITY...AND VERY LOW POPS FOR
ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 291700
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1200 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...A LOVELY VFR DAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
WITH A SCATTERED CU FIELD AND SLIGHTLY GUSTY WINDS AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY TIGHT. LOOK FOR THE GRADIENT
TO RELAX THIS EVENING WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF AND LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT CKV AND CSV. OTHERWISE, IT`S GOOD FLYING
WEATHER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

AVIATION...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING INTO MIDDLE TN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHILE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUE FROM NW TO SE IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT FROM TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS. THESE DISTURBANCES
MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCT-BKN CU AND MAYBE EVEN A STRAY SHOWER
OR TWO. CU NEAR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AS A RESULT OF ONE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES HAS DROPPED CIGS AT CSV TO IFR BRIEFLY.
HANDLED IFR CONDITIONS IN A TEMPO WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.

KEPT THE TAFS DRY BUT CONTINUED AFTERNOON CU IN ALL TAF SITES.
NRLY WINDS FROM 8-14 KTS ON AVERAGE CAN BE EXPECTED TIL SUNDOWN.
SOME MVFR-IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR CKV AND CSV BEYOND
06Z WEDNESDAY BUT LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...JUST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80
TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
SUNSHINE WILL BE MIXED WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
SLIDE DOWN TO THE TN VALLEY...BRINGING NEAR- RECORD LOWS BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS AROUND 1 DEGREE ABOVE
THE RECORDS.

RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY, JULY 30TH INCLUDE:

NASHVILLE 58 DEGS (SET IN 1965)
CROSSVILLE 53 DEGS (SET IN 1965)

SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG RIVERS
AND LAKES.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A TROUGH WILL SET UP FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...DOWN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND TO THE GULF
COAST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AND GREATER
POPS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND DEEP SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE...BUT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND UNDER THE TROUGH AND BROKEN DAYTIME CLOUDINESS.

INTO NEXT WEEK...THE ELONGATED TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OUT AS
HEIGHTS RISE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...MORE HUMIDITY...AND VERY LOW POPS FOR
ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




000
FXUS64 KMRX 291429
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1029 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...SOME MOISTURE AROUND 85H AND SOME LIFT WITH A WEAK
IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS
GENERATING SOME CLOUDS. THERE COULD EVEN BE A SHOWER OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LITTLE CAPE WITH RATHER DECENT LAPSE RATES.
SO WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TO SOME OF THE TERRAIN AREAS. THE
CLOUDS MAY EVEN TRIM A DEGREE OR TWO OFF FORECAST MAX TEMPS
WITH GREATEST IMPACT OVER THE TERRAIN. WILL MAKE THESE ADJUSTMENTS
FOR THE UPDATE.

&&


.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 291429
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1029 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...SOME MOISTURE AROUND 85H AND SOME LIFT WITH A WEAK
IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS
GENERATING SOME CLOUDS. THERE COULD EVEN BE A SHOWER OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LITTLE CAPE WITH RATHER DECENT LAPSE RATES.
SO WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TO SOME OF THE TERRAIN AREAS. THE
CLOUDS MAY EVEN TRIM A DEGREE OR TWO OFF FORECAST MAX TEMPS
WITH GREATEST IMPACT OVER THE TERRAIN. WILL MAKE THESE ADJUSTMENTS
FOR THE UPDATE.

&&


.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 291429
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1029 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...SOME MOISTURE AROUND 85H AND SOME LIFT WITH A WEAK
IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS
GENERATING SOME CLOUDS. THERE COULD EVEN BE A SHOWER OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LITTLE CAPE WITH RATHER DECENT LAPSE RATES.
SO WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TO SOME OF THE TERRAIN AREAS. THE
CLOUDS MAY EVEN TRIM A DEGREE OR TWO OFF FORECAST MAX TEMPS
WITH GREATEST IMPACT OVER THE TERRAIN. WILL MAKE THESE ADJUSTMENTS
FOR THE UPDATE.

&&


.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 291429
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1029 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...SOME MOISTURE AROUND 85H AND SOME LIFT WITH A WEAK
IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS
GENERATING SOME CLOUDS. THERE COULD EVEN BE A SHOWER OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LITTLE CAPE WITH RATHER DECENT LAPSE RATES.
SO WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TO SOME OF THE TERRAIN AREAS. THE
CLOUDS MAY EVEN TRIM A DEGREE OR TWO OFF FORECAST MAX TEMPS
WITH GREATEST IMPACT OVER THE TERRAIN. WILL MAKE THESE ADJUSTMENTS
FOR THE UPDATE.

&&


.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMEG 291153
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
653 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE
MID 70S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CENTRAL KANSAS AND
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH WESTERN
ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING...MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL FINALLY
TURN EAST AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ON THURSDAY SO
THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH NORTH
MISSISSIPPI HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHICH WILL BE BRING AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL. N/NE WINDS 7-9KTS BY MID MORNING WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 291153
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
653 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE
MID 70S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CENTRAL KANSAS AND
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH WESTERN
ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING...MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL FINALLY
TURN EAST AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ON THURSDAY SO
THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH NORTH
MISSISSIPPI HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHICH WILL BE BRING AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL. N/NE WINDS 7-9KTS BY MID MORNING WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 291134
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
634 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING INTO MIDDLE TN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHILE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUE FROM NW TO SE IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT FROM TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS. THESE DISTURBANCES
MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCT-BKN CU AND MAYBE EVEN A STRAY SHOWER
OR TWO. CU NEAR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AS A RESULT OF ONE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES HAS DROPPED CIGS AT CSV TO IFR BRIEFLY.
HANDLED IFR CONDITIONS IN A TEMPO WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.

KEPT THE TAFS DRY BUT CONTINUED AFTERNOON CU IN ALL TAF SITES.
NRLY WINDS FROM 8-14 KTS ON AVERAGE CAN BE EXPECTED TIL SUNDOWN.
SOME MVFR-IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR CKV AND CSV BEYOND
06Z WEDNESDAY BUT LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...JUST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80
TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
SUNSHINE WILL BE MIXED WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
SLIDE DOWN TO THE TN VALLEY...BRINGING NEAR- RECORD LOWS BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS AROUND 1 DEGREE ABOVE
THE RECORDS.

RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY, JULY 30TH INCLUDE:

NASHVILLE 58 DEGS (SET IN 1965)
CROSSVILLE 53 DEGS (SET IN 1965)

SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG RIVERS
AND LAKES.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A TROUGH WILL SET UP FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...DOWN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND TO THE GULF
COAST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AND GREATER
POPS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND DEEP SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE...BUT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND UNDER THE TROUGH AND BROKEN DAYTIME CLOUDINESS.

INTO NEXT WEEK...THE ELONGATED TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OUT AS
HEIGHTS RISE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...MORE HUMIDITY...AND VERY LOW POPS FOR
ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL





000
FXUS64 KOHX 291134
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
634 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING INTO MIDDLE TN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHILE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUE FROM NW TO SE IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT FROM TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS. THESE DISTURBANCES
MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCT-BKN CU AND MAYBE EVEN A STRAY SHOWER
OR TWO. CU NEAR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AS A RESULT OF ONE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES HAS DROPPED CIGS AT CSV TO IFR BRIEFLY.
HANDLED IFR CONDITIONS IN A TEMPO WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.

KEPT THE TAFS DRY BUT CONTINUED AFTERNOON CU IN ALL TAF SITES.
NRLY WINDS FROM 8-14 KTS ON AVERAGE CAN BE EXPECTED TIL SUNDOWN.
SOME MVFR-IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR CKV AND CSV BEYOND
06Z WEDNESDAY BUT LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...JUST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80
TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
SUNSHINE WILL BE MIXED WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
SLIDE DOWN TO THE TN VALLEY...BRINGING NEAR- RECORD LOWS BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS AROUND 1 DEGREE ABOVE
THE RECORDS.

RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY, JULY 30TH INCLUDE:

NASHVILLE 58 DEGS (SET IN 1965)
CROSSVILLE 53 DEGS (SET IN 1965)

SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG RIVERS
AND LAKES.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A TROUGH WILL SET UP FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...DOWN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND TO THE GULF
COAST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AND GREATER
POPS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND DEEP SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE...BUT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND UNDER THE TROUGH AND BROKEN DAYTIME CLOUDINESS.

INTO NEXT WEEK...THE ELONGATED TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OUT AS
HEIGHTS RISE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...MORE HUMIDITY...AND VERY LOW POPS FOR
ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL





000
FXUS64 KOHX 291134
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
634 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING INTO MIDDLE TN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHILE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUE FROM NW TO SE IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT FROM TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS. THESE DISTURBANCES
MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCT-BKN CU AND MAYBE EVEN A STRAY SHOWER
OR TWO. CU NEAR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AS A RESULT OF ONE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES HAS DROPPED CIGS AT CSV TO IFR BRIEFLY.
HANDLED IFR CONDITIONS IN A TEMPO WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.

KEPT THE TAFS DRY BUT CONTINUED AFTERNOON CU IN ALL TAF SITES.
NRLY WINDS FROM 8-14 KTS ON AVERAGE CAN BE EXPECTED TIL SUNDOWN.
SOME MVFR-IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR CKV AND CSV BEYOND
06Z WEDNESDAY BUT LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...JUST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80
TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
SUNSHINE WILL BE MIXED WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
SLIDE DOWN TO THE TN VALLEY...BRINGING NEAR- RECORD LOWS BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS AROUND 1 DEGREE ABOVE
THE RECORDS.

RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY, JULY 30TH INCLUDE:

NASHVILLE 58 DEGS (SET IN 1965)
CROSSVILLE 53 DEGS (SET IN 1965)

SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG RIVERS
AND LAKES.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A TROUGH WILL SET UP FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...DOWN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND TO THE GULF
COAST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AND GREATER
POPS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND DEEP SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE...BUT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND UNDER THE TROUGH AND BROKEN DAYTIME CLOUDINESS.

INTO NEXT WEEK...THE ELONGATED TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OUT AS
HEIGHTS RISE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...MORE HUMIDITY...AND VERY LOW POPS FOR
ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL





000
FXUS64 KOHX 291134
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
634 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING INTO MIDDLE TN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHILE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUE FROM NW TO SE IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT FROM TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS. THESE DISTURBANCES
MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCT-BKN CU AND MAYBE EVEN A STRAY SHOWER
OR TWO. CU NEAR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AS A RESULT OF ONE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES HAS DROPPED CIGS AT CSV TO IFR BRIEFLY.
HANDLED IFR CONDITIONS IN A TEMPO WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.

KEPT THE TAFS DRY BUT CONTINUED AFTERNOON CU IN ALL TAF SITES.
NRLY WINDS FROM 8-14 KTS ON AVERAGE CAN BE EXPECTED TIL SUNDOWN.
SOME MVFR-IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR CKV AND CSV BEYOND
06Z WEDNESDAY BUT LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...JUST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80
TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
SUNSHINE WILL BE MIXED WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
SLIDE DOWN TO THE TN VALLEY...BRINGING NEAR- RECORD LOWS BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS AROUND 1 DEGREE ABOVE
THE RECORDS.

RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY, JULY 30TH INCLUDE:

NASHVILLE 58 DEGS (SET IN 1965)
CROSSVILLE 53 DEGS (SET IN 1965)

SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG RIVERS
AND LAKES.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A TROUGH WILL SET UP FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...DOWN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND TO THE GULF
COAST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AND GREATER
POPS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND DEEP SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE...BUT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND UNDER THE TROUGH AND BROKEN DAYTIME CLOUDINESS.

INTO NEXT WEEK...THE ELONGATED TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OUT AS
HEIGHTS RISE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...MORE HUMIDITY...AND VERY LOW POPS FOR
ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL





000
FXUS64 KMRX 291114
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
715 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL HELP TO GENERATE SCATTERED MID
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG



000
FXUS64 KMRX 291114
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
715 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL HELP TO GENERATE SCATTERED MID
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG



000
FXUS64 KMRX 291114
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
715 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL HELP TO GENERATE SCATTERED MID
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG



000
FXUS64 KMRX 291114
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
715 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL HELP TO GENERATE SCATTERED MID
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG



000
FXUS64 KMEG 290900
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
400 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE
MID 70S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CENTRAL KANSAS AND
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH WESTERN
ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING...MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL FINALLY
TURN EAST AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ON THURSDAY SO
THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH NORTH
MISSISSIPPI HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHICH WILL BE BRING AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR. LIGHT NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT....INCREASING TO
7-9KTS LATE TUESDAY MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING AGAIN LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 290900
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
400 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE
MID 70S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CENTRAL KANSAS AND
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH WESTERN
ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING...MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL FINALLY
TURN EAST AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ON THURSDAY SO
THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH NORTH
MISSISSIPPI HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHICH WILL BE BRING AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR. LIGHT NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT....INCREASING TO
7-9KTS LATE TUESDAY MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING AGAIN LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 290748
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
248 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...JUST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80
TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
SUNSHINE WILL BE MIXED WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
SLIDE DOWN TO THE TN VALLEY...BRINGING NEAR- RECORD LOWS BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS AROUND 1 DEGREE ABOVE
THE RECORDS.

RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY, JULY 30TH INCLUDE:

NASHVILLE 58 DEGS (SET IN 1965)
CROSSVILLE 53 DEGS (SET IN 1965)

SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG RIVERS
AND LAKES.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A TROUGH WILL SET UP FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...DOWN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND TO THE GULF
COAST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AND GREATER
POPS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND DEEP SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE...BUT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND UNDER THE TROUGH AND BROKEN DAYTIME CLOUDINESS.

INTO NEXT WEEK...THE ELONGATED TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OUT AS
HEIGHTS RISE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...MORE HUMIDITY...AND VERY LOW POPS FOR
ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION

AVIATION...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT MAY GENERATE
SCATTERED CU MAINLY FOR THE CSV TERMINAL...AND SOME MEAGER SHOWERS
HERE AND THERE. LEFT OUT VCSH SINCE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
BE EAST OF THE CSV TAF SITE. EITHER WAY...VSBYS SHOULD NOT SUFFER.
IF WIND GOES CALM THERE THOUGH...CSV COULD SEE LOW MVFR/HIGH IFR
VSBYS TOWARD DAWN FROM LIGHT FOG. OTHERWISE...NNW WINDS AROUND
5KFT SHOULD PREVENT THAT AT CKV AND BNA.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AFTER 14Z...WITH MIDDAY-AFTERNOON CU
AND NRLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      81  59  85  62 /   0   0   0  05
CLARKSVILLE    80  56  84  59 /   0   0   0  05
CROSSVILLE     73  54  78  56 /   0   0   0  05
COLUMBIA       82  55  85  61 /   0   0   0  05
LAWRENCEBURG   82  57  85  62 /   0   0   0  05
WAVERLY        82  55  85  61 /   0   0   0  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 290748
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
248 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...JUST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80
TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
SUNSHINE WILL BE MIXED WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
SLIDE DOWN TO THE TN VALLEY...BRINGING NEAR- RECORD LOWS BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS AROUND 1 DEGREE ABOVE
THE RECORDS.

RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY, JULY 30TH INCLUDE:

NASHVILLE 58 DEGS (SET IN 1965)
CROSSVILLE 53 DEGS (SET IN 1965)

SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG RIVERS
AND LAKES.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A TROUGH WILL SET UP FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...DOWN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND TO THE GULF
COAST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AND GREATER
POPS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND DEEP SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE...BUT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND UNDER THE TROUGH AND BROKEN DAYTIME CLOUDINESS.

INTO NEXT WEEK...THE ELONGATED TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OUT AS
HEIGHTS RISE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...MORE HUMIDITY...AND VERY LOW POPS FOR
ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION

AVIATION...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT MAY GENERATE
SCATTERED CU MAINLY FOR THE CSV TERMINAL...AND SOME MEAGER SHOWERS
HERE AND THERE. LEFT OUT VCSH SINCE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
BE EAST OF THE CSV TAF SITE. EITHER WAY...VSBYS SHOULD NOT SUFFER.
IF WIND GOES CALM THERE THOUGH...CSV COULD SEE LOW MVFR/HIGH IFR
VSBYS TOWARD DAWN FROM LIGHT FOG. OTHERWISE...NNW WINDS AROUND
5KFT SHOULD PREVENT THAT AT CKV AND BNA.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AFTER 14Z...WITH MIDDAY-AFTERNOON CU
AND NRLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      81  59  85  62 /   0   0   0  05
CLARKSVILLE    80  56  84  59 /   0   0   0  05
CROSSVILLE     73  54  78  56 /   0   0   0  05
COLUMBIA       82  55  85  61 /   0   0   0  05
LAWRENCEBURG   82  57  85  62 /   0   0   0  05
WAVERLY        82  55  85  61 /   0   0   0  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 290748
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
248 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...JUST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80
TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
SUNSHINE WILL BE MIXED WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
SLIDE DOWN TO THE TN VALLEY...BRINGING NEAR- RECORD LOWS BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS AROUND 1 DEGREE ABOVE
THE RECORDS.

RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY, JULY 30TH INCLUDE:

NASHVILLE 58 DEGS (SET IN 1965)
CROSSVILLE 53 DEGS (SET IN 1965)

SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG RIVERS
AND LAKES.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A TROUGH WILL SET UP FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...DOWN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND TO THE GULF
COAST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AND GREATER
POPS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND DEEP SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE...BUT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND UNDER THE TROUGH AND BROKEN DAYTIME CLOUDINESS.

INTO NEXT WEEK...THE ELONGATED TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OUT AS
HEIGHTS RISE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...MORE HUMIDITY...AND VERY LOW POPS FOR
ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION

AVIATION...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT MAY GENERATE
SCATTERED CU MAINLY FOR THE CSV TERMINAL...AND SOME MEAGER SHOWERS
HERE AND THERE. LEFT OUT VCSH SINCE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
BE EAST OF THE CSV TAF SITE. EITHER WAY...VSBYS SHOULD NOT SUFFER.
IF WIND GOES CALM THERE THOUGH...CSV COULD SEE LOW MVFR/HIGH IFR
VSBYS TOWARD DAWN FROM LIGHT FOG. OTHERWISE...NNW WINDS AROUND
5KFT SHOULD PREVENT THAT AT CKV AND BNA.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AFTER 14Z...WITH MIDDAY-AFTERNOON CU
AND NRLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      81  59  85  62 /   0   0   0  05
CLARKSVILLE    80  56  84  59 /   0   0   0  05
CROSSVILLE     73  54  78  56 /   0   0   0  05
COLUMBIA       82  55  85  61 /   0   0   0  05
LAWRENCEBURG   82  57  85  62 /   0   0   0  05
WAVERLY        82  55  85  61 /   0   0   0  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 290748
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
248 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...JUST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80
TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
SUNSHINE WILL BE MIXED WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
SLIDE DOWN TO THE TN VALLEY...BRINGING NEAR- RECORD LOWS BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS AROUND 1 DEGREE ABOVE
THE RECORDS.

RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY, JULY 30TH INCLUDE:

NASHVILLE 58 DEGS (SET IN 1965)
CROSSVILLE 53 DEGS (SET IN 1965)

SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG RIVERS
AND LAKES.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A TROUGH WILL SET UP FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...DOWN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND TO THE GULF
COAST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AND GREATER
POPS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND DEEP SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE...BUT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND UNDER THE TROUGH AND BROKEN DAYTIME CLOUDINESS.

INTO NEXT WEEK...THE ELONGATED TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OUT AS
HEIGHTS RISE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...MORE HUMIDITY...AND VERY LOW POPS FOR
ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION

AVIATION...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT MAY GENERATE
SCATTERED CU MAINLY FOR THE CSV TERMINAL...AND SOME MEAGER SHOWERS
HERE AND THERE. LEFT OUT VCSH SINCE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
BE EAST OF THE CSV TAF SITE. EITHER WAY...VSBYS SHOULD NOT SUFFER.
IF WIND GOES CALM THERE THOUGH...CSV COULD SEE LOW MVFR/HIGH IFR
VSBYS TOWARD DAWN FROM LIGHT FOG. OTHERWISE...NNW WINDS AROUND
5KFT SHOULD PREVENT THAT AT CKV AND BNA.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AFTER 14Z...WITH MIDDAY-AFTERNOON CU
AND NRLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      81  59  85  62 /   0   0   0  05
CLARKSVILLE    80  56  84  59 /   0   0   0  05
CROSSVILLE     73  54  78  56 /   0   0   0  05
COLUMBIA       82  55  85  61 /   0   0   0  05
LAWRENCEBURG   82  57  85  62 /   0   0   0  05
WAVERLY        82  55  85  61 /   0   0   0  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 290701
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
301 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH
A STRONG COLD FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL
BRING DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH
LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THIS UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD MAINLY JUST CREATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE CAPPED
IN THE MID LEVELS. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND LOOK REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED. A SERIES OF UPPER JETS WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE JETS WILL
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY PULLING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
MOUNTAINS.

UNSEASONABLY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MAIN LOW-LEVEL
FOCUSING WILL BE TERRAIN AND AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFTS EAST/
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS. BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             82  58  85  63 /   0   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  57  81  61 /   0   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       80  57  82  60 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              78  53  79  53 /  10   0   0  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/DH




000
FXUS64 KMRX 290701
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
301 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH
A STRONG COLD FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL
BRING DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH
LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THIS UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD MAINLY JUST CREATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE CAPPED
IN THE MID LEVELS. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND LOOK REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED. A SERIES OF UPPER JETS WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE JETS WILL
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY PULLING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
MOUNTAINS.

UNSEASONABLY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MAIN LOW-LEVEL
FOCUSING WILL BE TERRAIN AND AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFTS EAST/
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS. BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             82  58  85  63 /   0   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  57  81  61 /   0   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       80  57  82  60 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              78  53  79  53 /  10   0   0  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/DH




000
FXUS64 KMRX 290701
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
301 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH
A STRONG COLD FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL
BRING DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH
LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THIS UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD MAINLY JUST CREATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE CAPPED
IN THE MID LEVELS. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND LOOK REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED. A SERIES OF UPPER JETS WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE JETS WILL
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY PULLING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
MOUNTAINS.

UNSEASONABLY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MAIN LOW-LEVEL
FOCUSING WILL BE TERRAIN AND AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFTS EAST/
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS. BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             82  58  85  63 /   0   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  57  81  61 /   0   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       80  57  82  60 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              78  53  79  53 /  10   0   0  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/DH




000
FXUS64 KMRX 290701
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
301 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH
A STRONG COLD FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL
BRING DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH
LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THIS UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD MAINLY JUST CREATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE CAPPED
IN THE MID LEVELS. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND LOOK REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED. A SERIES OF UPPER JETS WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE JETS WILL
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY PULLING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
MOUNTAINS.

UNSEASONABLY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MAIN LOW-LEVEL
FOCUSING WILL BE TERRAIN AND AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFTS EAST/
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS. BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             82  58  85  63 /   0   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  57  81  61 /   0   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       80  57  82  60 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              78  53  79  53 /  10   0   0  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/DH




000
FXUS64 KOHX 290555
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1255 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT MAY GENERATE
SCATTERED CU MAINLY FOR THE CSV TERMINAL...AND SOME MEAGER SHOWERS
HERE AND THERE. LEFT OUT VCSH SINCE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
BE EAST OF THE CSV TAF SITE. EITHER WAY...VSBYS SHOULD NOT SUFFER.
IF WIND GOES CALM THERE THOUGH...CSV COULD SEE LOW MVFR/HIGH IFR
VSBYS TOWARD DAWN FROM LIGHT FOG. OTHERWISE...NNW WINDS AROUND
5KFT SHOULD PREVENT THAT AT CKV AND BNA.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AFTER 14Z...WITH MIDDAY-AFTERNOON CU
AND NRLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 829 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

UPDATE...
1023 MBAR SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WITH RIDGING
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS UNSEASONABLE TEMPS
CONTINUE. MODELS SHOW A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AROUND 850 MBARS
ON TUESDAY SO EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AT THE 5K
LEVEL DURING THE DAY. FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL





000
FXUS64 KOHX 290555
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1255 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT MAY GENERATE
SCATTERED CU MAINLY FOR THE CSV TERMINAL...AND SOME MEAGER SHOWERS
HERE AND THERE. LEFT OUT VCSH SINCE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
BE EAST OF THE CSV TAF SITE. EITHER WAY...VSBYS SHOULD NOT SUFFER.
IF WIND GOES CALM THERE THOUGH...CSV COULD SEE LOW MVFR/HIGH IFR
VSBYS TOWARD DAWN FROM LIGHT FOG. OTHERWISE...NNW WINDS AROUND
5KFT SHOULD PREVENT THAT AT CKV AND BNA.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AFTER 14Z...WITH MIDDAY-AFTERNOON CU
AND NRLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 829 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

UPDATE...
1023 MBAR SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WITH RIDGING
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS UNSEASONABLE TEMPS
CONTINUE. MODELS SHOW A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AROUND 850 MBARS
ON TUESDAY SO EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AT THE 5K
LEVEL DURING THE DAY. FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL






000
FXUS64 KMRX 290536
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
135 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A COLD FRONT ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL HELP TO GENERATE SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO FOG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AT KTRI TOWARDS SUNRISE.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG




000
FXUS64 KMEG 290445
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1145 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

UPDATE...

NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE U.S. THIS
EVENING WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION
WITH STRONG RIDGING IN THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION WITH
UNSEASONABLY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A FEW MID
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH RECORD LOW VALUES IN SOME AREAS. THE CURRENT FORECAST
APPEARS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE MIDSOUTH UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER TROF WILL DEAMPLIFY AND
LIFT OUT...AS THE OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FINALLY
BREAKS DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A REINFORCING PUSH OF DRY AIR FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ARRIVE
IN THE MIDSOUTH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH RECORD LOWS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS/NAM/ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF BEST ASSOCIATED LIFT AND RAIN
CHANCES OVER NORTH MS. THIS REGION WILL NEARER MODIFIED AND
ELEVATED GULF MOISTURE DRAWN NORTH AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE EXTENT OF RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND
NORTH OF I40 THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE GFS SHOWING BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN ANY CASE...CLOUD
COVER APPEARS A GOOD BET OVER THE NORTH...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION. GFS MOS...WHICH HAS SHOWN A WARM DAYTIME BIAS
MOST OF THE SUMMER...SUGGESTS HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY ON THURSDAY. AS WITH MOST DAYTIME PERIODS...HAVE
UNDERCUT GFS MOS BUY 2 TO 3 DEGREES ON THURSDAY...MEANING SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE 80 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE LATE WEEK PERIODS SHOULD EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT WARM UP...WITH
BETTER POSSIBILITY OF STRONG EARLY AUGUST SUNSHINE. DIFFERENTIAL
SURFACE HEATING AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE ATTAINABLE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS EACH DAY. BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE SOUTH
OF I40...WITH BEST LIFT EAST OF THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR. LIGHT NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT....INCREASING TO
7-9KTS LATE TUESDAY MORNING...TEHN DIMINISHING AGAIN LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 290445
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1145 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

UPDATE...

NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE U.S. THIS
EVENING WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION
WITH STRONG RIDGING IN THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION WITH
UNSEASONABLY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A FEW MID
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH RECORD LOW VALUES IN SOME AREAS. THE CURRENT FORECAST
APPEARS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE MIDSOUTH UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER TROF WILL DEAMPLIFY AND
LIFT OUT...AS THE OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FINALLY
BREAKS DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A REINFORCING PUSH OF DRY AIR FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ARRIVE
IN THE MIDSOUTH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH RECORD LOWS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS/NAM/ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF BEST ASSOCIATED LIFT AND RAIN
CHANCES OVER NORTH MS. THIS REGION WILL NEARER MODIFIED AND
ELEVATED GULF MOISTURE DRAWN NORTH AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE EXTENT OF RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND
NORTH OF I40 THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE GFS SHOWING BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN ANY CASE...CLOUD
COVER APPEARS A GOOD BET OVER THE NORTH...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION. GFS MOS...WHICH HAS SHOWN A WARM DAYTIME BIAS
MOST OF THE SUMMER...SUGGESTS HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY ON THURSDAY. AS WITH MOST DAYTIME PERIODS...HAVE
UNDERCUT GFS MOS BUY 2 TO 3 DEGREES ON THURSDAY...MEANING SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE 80 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE LATE WEEK PERIODS SHOULD EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT WARM UP...WITH
BETTER POSSIBILITY OF STRONG EARLY AUGUST SUNSHINE. DIFFERENTIAL
SURFACE HEATING AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE ATTAINABLE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS EACH DAY. BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE SOUTH
OF I40...WITH BEST LIFT EAST OF THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR. LIGHT NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT....INCREASING TO
7-9KTS LATE TUESDAY MORNING...TEHN DIMINISHING AGAIN LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 290445
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1145 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

UPDATE...

NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE U.S. THIS
EVENING WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION
WITH STRONG RIDGING IN THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION WITH
UNSEASONABLY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A FEW MID
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH RECORD LOW VALUES IN SOME AREAS. THE CURRENT FORECAST
APPEARS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE MIDSOUTH UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER TROF WILL DEAMPLIFY AND
LIFT OUT...AS THE OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FINALLY
BREAKS DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A REINFORCING PUSH OF DRY AIR FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ARRIVE
IN THE MIDSOUTH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH RECORD LOWS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS/NAM/ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF BEST ASSOCIATED LIFT AND RAIN
CHANCES OVER NORTH MS. THIS REGION WILL NEARER MODIFIED AND
ELEVATED GULF MOISTURE DRAWN NORTH AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE EXTENT OF RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND
NORTH OF I40 THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE GFS SHOWING BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN ANY CASE...CLOUD
COVER APPEARS A GOOD BET OVER THE NORTH...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION. GFS MOS...WHICH HAS SHOWN A WARM DAYTIME BIAS
MOST OF THE SUMMER...SUGGESTS HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY ON THURSDAY. AS WITH MOST DAYTIME PERIODS...HAVE
UNDERCUT GFS MOS BUY 2 TO 3 DEGREES ON THURSDAY...MEANING SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE 80 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE LATE WEEK PERIODS SHOULD EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT WARM UP...WITH
BETTER POSSIBILITY OF STRONG EARLY AUGUST SUNSHINE. DIFFERENTIAL
SURFACE HEATING AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE ATTAINABLE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS EACH DAY. BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE SOUTH
OF I40...WITH BEST LIFT EAST OF THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR. LIGHT NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT....INCREASING TO
7-9KTS LATE TUESDAY MORNING...TEHN DIMINISHING AGAIN LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 290445
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1145 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

UPDATE...

NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE U.S. THIS
EVENING WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION
WITH STRONG RIDGING IN THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION WITH
UNSEASONABLY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A FEW MID
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH RECORD LOW VALUES IN SOME AREAS. THE CURRENT FORECAST
APPEARS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE MIDSOUTH UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER TROF WILL DEAMPLIFY AND
LIFT OUT...AS THE OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FINALLY
BREAKS DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A REINFORCING PUSH OF DRY AIR FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ARRIVE
IN THE MIDSOUTH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH RECORD LOWS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS/NAM/ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF BEST ASSOCIATED LIFT AND RAIN
CHANCES OVER NORTH MS. THIS REGION WILL NEARER MODIFIED AND
ELEVATED GULF MOISTURE DRAWN NORTH AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE EXTENT OF RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND
NORTH OF I40 THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE GFS SHOWING BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN ANY CASE...CLOUD
COVER APPEARS A GOOD BET OVER THE NORTH...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION. GFS MOS...WHICH HAS SHOWN A WARM DAYTIME BIAS
MOST OF THE SUMMER...SUGGESTS HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY ON THURSDAY. AS WITH MOST DAYTIME PERIODS...HAVE
UNDERCUT GFS MOS BUY 2 TO 3 DEGREES ON THURSDAY...MEANING SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE 80 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE LATE WEEK PERIODS SHOULD EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT WARM UP...WITH
BETTER POSSIBILITY OF STRONG EARLY AUGUST SUNSHINE. DIFFERENTIAL
SURFACE HEATING AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE ATTAINABLE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS EACH DAY. BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE SOUTH
OF I40...WITH BEST LIFT EAST OF THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR. LIGHT NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT....INCREASING TO
7-9KTS LATE TUESDAY MORNING...TEHN DIMINISHING AGAIN LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 290239
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
939 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...

NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE U.S. THIS
EVENING WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION
WITH STRONG RIDGING IN THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION WITH
UNSEASONABLY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A FEW MID
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH RECORD LOW VALUES IN SOME AREAS. THE CURRENT FORECAST
APPEARS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE MIDSOUTH UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER TROF WILL DEAMPLIFY AND
LIFT OUT...AS THE OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FINALLY
BREAKS DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A REINFORCING PUSH OF DRY AIR FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ARRIVE
IN THE MIDSOUTH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH RECORD LOWS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS/NAM/ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF BEST ASSOCIATED LIFT AND RAIN
CHANCES OVER NORTH MS. THIS REGION WILL NEARER MODIFIED AND
ELEVATED GULF MOISTURE DRAWN NORTH AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE EXTENT OF RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND
NORTH OF I40 THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE GFS SHOWING BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN ANY CASE...CLOUD
COVER APPEARS A GOOD BET OVER THE NORTH...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION. GFS MOS...WHICH HAS SHOWN A WARM DAYTIME BIAS
MOST OF THE SUMMER...SUGGESTS HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY ON THURSDAY. AS WITH MOST DAYTIME PERIODS...HAVE
UNDERCUT GFS MOS BUY 2 TO 3 DEGREES ON THURSDAY...MEANING SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE 80 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE LATE WEEK PERIODS SHOULD EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT WARM UP...WITH
BETTER POSSIBILITY OF STRONG EARLY AUGUST SUNSHINE. DIFFERENTIAL
SURFACE HEATING AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE ATTAINABLE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS EACH DAY. BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE SOUTH
OF I40...WITH BEST LIFT EAST OF THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT 4-7
KTS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 7-9KTS LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 290239
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
939 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...

NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE U.S. THIS
EVENING WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION
WITH STRONG RIDGING IN THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION WITH
UNSEASONABLY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A FEW MID
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH RECORD LOW VALUES IN SOME AREAS. THE CURRENT FORECAST
APPEARS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE MIDSOUTH UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER TROF WILL DEAMPLIFY AND
LIFT OUT...AS THE OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FINALLY
BREAKS DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A REINFORCING PUSH OF DRY AIR FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ARRIVE
IN THE MIDSOUTH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH RECORD LOWS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS/NAM/ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF BEST ASSOCIATED LIFT AND RAIN
CHANCES OVER NORTH MS. THIS REGION WILL NEARER MODIFIED AND
ELEVATED GULF MOISTURE DRAWN NORTH AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE EXTENT OF RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND
NORTH OF I40 THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE GFS SHOWING BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN ANY CASE...CLOUD
COVER APPEARS A GOOD BET OVER THE NORTH...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION. GFS MOS...WHICH HAS SHOWN A WARM DAYTIME BIAS
MOST OF THE SUMMER...SUGGESTS HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY ON THURSDAY. AS WITH MOST DAYTIME PERIODS...HAVE
UNDERCUT GFS MOS BUY 2 TO 3 DEGREES ON THURSDAY...MEANING SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE 80 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE LATE WEEK PERIODS SHOULD EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT WARM UP...WITH
BETTER POSSIBILITY OF STRONG EARLY AUGUST SUNSHINE. DIFFERENTIAL
SURFACE HEATING AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE ATTAINABLE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS EACH DAY. BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE SOUTH
OF I40...WITH BEST LIFT EAST OF THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT 4-7
KTS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 7-9KTS LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 290129
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
829 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
1023 MBAR SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WITH RIDGING
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS UNSEASONABLE TEMPS
CONTINUE. MODELS SHOW A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AROUND 850 MBARS
ON TUESDAY SO EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AT THE 5K
LEVEL DURING THE DAY. FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 290129
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
829 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
1023 MBAR SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WITH RIDGING
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS UNSEASONABLE TEMPS
CONTINUE. MODELS SHOW A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AROUND 850 MBARS
ON TUESDAY SO EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AT THE 5K
LEVEL DURING THE DAY. FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KMRX 290121
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
921 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT HAS NOW MOVED INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA SPINS
FAR TO THE NORTH. DRIER FLOW HAS BROUGHT IN MUCH COOLER AIR MASS.
WEAK ENERGY ALOFT DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE
NORTHEAST AND NORTH NEXT COUPLE HOURS BUT CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AND
SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT. DROPPED
LOWS A DEGREE IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.
UPDATED FORECAST SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             63  83  59  85 /  10  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  61  79  57  83 /  10  10   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       61  79  56  83 /  10  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              57  76  51  79 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD



000
FXUS64 KMRX 290121
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
921 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT HAS NOW MOVED INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA SPINS
FAR TO THE NORTH. DRIER FLOW HAS BROUGHT IN MUCH COOLER AIR MASS.
WEAK ENERGY ALOFT DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE
NORTHEAST AND NORTH NEXT COUPLE HOURS BUT CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AND
SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT. DROPPED
LOWS A DEGREE IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.
UPDATED FORECAST SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             63  83  59  85 /  10  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  61  79  57  83 /  10  10   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       61  79  56  83 /  10  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              57  76  51  79 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD



000
FXUS64 KMRX 290121
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
921 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT HAS NOW MOVED INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA SPINS
FAR TO THE NORTH. DRIER FLOW HAS BROUGHT IN MUCH COOLER AIR MASS.
WEAK ENERGY ALOFT DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE
NORTHEAST AND NORTH NEXT COUPLE HOURS BUT CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AND
SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT. DROPPED
LOWS A DEGREE IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.
UPDATED FORECAST SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             63  83  59  85 /  10  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  61  79  57  83 /  10  10   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       61  79  56  83 /  10  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              57  76  51  79 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD



000
FXUS64 KMRX 290121
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
921 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT HAS NOW MOVED INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA SPINS
FAR TO THE NORTH. DRIER FLOW HAS BROUGHT IN MUCH COOLER AIR MASS.
WEAK ENERGY ALOFT DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE
NORTHEAST AND NORTH NEXT COUPLE HOURS BUT CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AND
SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT. DROPPED
LOWS A DEGREE IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.
UPDATED FORECAST SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             63  83  59  85 /  10  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  61  79  57  83 /  10  10   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       61  79  56  83 /  10  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              57  76  51  79 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD



000
FXUS64 KMRX 282346
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
746 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NE TN...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
COOLER...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AVIATION SITES VFR EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS OF MVFR FOG AT TRI TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD



000
FXUS64 KMRX 282346
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
746 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NE TN...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
COOLER...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AVIATION SITES VFR EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS OF MVFR FOG AT TRI TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD



000
FXUS64 KMRX 282346
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
746 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NE TN...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
COOLER...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AVIATION SITES VFR EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS OF MVFR FOG AT TRI TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD



000
FXUS64 KMRX 282346
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
746 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NE TN...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
COOLER...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AVIATION SITES VFR EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS OF MVFR FOG AT TRI TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD



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