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000
FXUS64 KOHX 211536
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1036 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF THE MID-STATE
LATE THIS MORNING. MOISTURE SOURCE AHEAD REMAINS LIMITED AND
VERTICAL MOTION QUITE WEAK. THUS BAND OF PCPN EARLIER NOW
REDUCED TO A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPS WARMING RAPIDLY AND THAT
IS EXPECTED TO BOOST INSTABILITY A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTH. EXPECT
TO SEE AN INCREASE IN DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON EAST/SOUTH
AS FRONT MOVES INTO AL THIS EVENING. OVERALL ONGOING FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD BUT WILL MAKE A FEW SMALL TWEAKS TO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 714 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
AND CIGS ARE PROGGED TO FALL AS THE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY APPROACHES MIDDLE TENNESSEE. NOT A LOT OF PRECIP EXPECTED
TODAY...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FROPA AND POSSIBLY IMPACT TAF SITES...AROUND 13Z FOR
CKV...14Z FOR BNA...AND 18Z FOR CSV. EXPECT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WIND
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOR ALL
SITES BY 00Z AND REMAIN PLEASANT THROUGHOUT SUNDAY NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

RADAR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING CLEARLY DEPICTS COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BASED ON CURRENT
SPEED...FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID STATE AROUND 8 AM THEN
GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS DURING THE DAY BEFORE EXITING THE FORECAST
AREA BY EVENING. WITH MAIN UPPER FORCING WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
LIMITED DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY WARRANTING ONLY
CHANCE POPS. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 AS
DAYTIME HEATING AIDS IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...BUT CHANCE APPEARS REMOTE DUE TO LACKLUSTER
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
MID STATE SUNDAY NIGHT...RIGHT ON TIME FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
FALL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST NIGHT SO FAR THIS MONTH WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S FOR NEARLY EVERYONE EXCEPT TYPICALLY WARMER URBAN
NASHVILLE AND AREAS NEAR THE AL BORDER. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE ALOFT...ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DUE TO THE POLAR JET
BEING WAY NORTH ACROSS CANADA. BY NEXT WEEKEND...BOTH 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND HAVE KEPT MENTION IN GRIDS AND
ZONES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KOHX 211536
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1036 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF THE MID-STATE
LATE THIS MORNING. MOISTURE SOURCE AHEAD REMAINS LIMITED AND
VERTICAL MOTION QUITE WEAK. THUS BAND OF PCPN EARLIER NOW
REDUCED TO A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPS WARMING RAPIDLY AND THAT
IS EXPECTED TO BOOST INSTABILITY A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTH. EXPECT
TO SEE AN INCREASE IN DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON EAST/SOUTH
AS FRONT MOVES INTO AL THIS EVENING. OVERALL ONGOING FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD BUT WILL MAKE A FEW SMALL TWEAKS TO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 714 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
AND CIGS ARE PROGGED TO FALL AS THE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY APPROACHES MIDDLE TENNESSEE. NOT A LOT OF PRECIP EXPECTED
TODAY...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FROPA AND POSSIBLY IMPACT TAF SITES...AROUND 13Z FOR
CKV...14Z FOR BNA...AND 18Z FOR CSV. EXPECT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WIND
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOR ALL
SITES BY 00Z AND REMAIN PLEASANT THROUGHOUT SUNDAY NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

RADAR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING CLEARLY DEPICTS COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BASED ON CURRENT
SPEED...FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID STATE AROUND 8 AM THEN
GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS DURING THE DAY BEFORE EXITING THE FORECAST
AREA BY EVENING. WITH MAIN UPPER FORCING WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
LIMITED DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY WARRANTING ONLY
CHANCE POPS. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 AS
DAYTIME HEATING AIDS IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...BUT CHANCE APPEARS REMOTE DUE TO LACKLUSTER
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
MID STATE SUNDAY NIGHT...RIGHT ON TIME FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
FALL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST NIGHT SO FAR THIS MONTH WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S FOR NEARLY EVERYONE EXCEPT TYPICALLY WARMER URBAN
NASHVILLE AND AREAS NEAR THE AL BORDER. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE ALOFT...ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DUE TO THE POLAR JET
BEING WAY NORTH ACROSS CANADA. BY NEXT WEEKEND...BOTH 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND HAVE KEPT MENTION IN GRIDS AND
ZONES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KOHX 211536
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1036 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF THE MID-STATE
LATE THIS MORNING. MOISTURE SOURCE AHEAD REMAINS LIMITED AND
VERTICAL MOTION QUITE WEAK. THUS BAND OF PCPN EARLIER NOW
REDUCED TO A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPS WARMING RAPIDLY AND THAT
IS EXPECTED TO BOOST INSTABILITY A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTH. EXPECT
TO SEE AN INCREASE IN DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON EAST/SOUTH
AS FRONT MOVES INTO AL THIS EVENING. OVERALL ONGOING FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD BUT WILL MAKE A FEW SMALL TWEAKS TO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 714 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
AND CIGS ARE PROGGED TO FALL AS THE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY APPROACHES MIDDLE TENNESSEE. NOT A LOT OF PRECIP EXPECTED
TODAY...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FROPA AND POSSIBLY IMPACT TAF SITES...AROUND 13Z FOR
CKV...14Z FOR BNA...AND 18Z FOR CSV. EXPECT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WIND
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOR ALL
SITES BY 00Z AND REMAIN PLEASANT THROUGHOUT SUNDAY NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

RADAR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING CLEARLY DEPICTS COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BASED ON CURRENT
SPEED...FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID STATE AROUND 8 AM THEN
GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS DURING THE DAY BEFORE EXITING THE FORECAST
AREA BY EVENING. WITH MAIN UPPER FORCING WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
LIMITED DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY WARRANTING ONLY
CHANCE POPS. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 AS
DAYTIME HEATING AIDS IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...BUT CHANCE APPEARS REMOTE DUE TO LACKLUSTER
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
MID STATE SUNDAY NIGHT...RIGHT ON TIME FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
FALL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST NIGHT SO FAR THIS MONTH WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S FOR NEARLY EVERYONE EXCEPT TYPICALLY WARMER URBAN
NASHVILLE AND AREAS NEAR THE AL BORDER. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE ALOFT...ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DUE TO THE POLAR JET
BEING WAY NORTH ACROSS CANADA. BY NEXT WEEKEND...BOTH 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND HAVE KEPT MENTION IN GRIDS AND
ZONES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KOHX 211536
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1036 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF THE MID-STATE
LATE THIS MORNING. MOISTURE SOURCE AHEAD REMAINS LIMITED AND
VERTICAL MOTION QUITE WEAK. THUS BAND OF PCPN EARLIER NOW
REDUCED TO A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPS WARMING RAPIDLY AND THAT
IS EXPECTED TO BOOST INSTABILITY A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTH. EXPECT
TO SEE AN INCREASE IN DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON EAST/SOUTH
AS FRONT MOVES INTO AL THIS EVENING. OVERALL ONGOING FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD BUT WILL MAKE A FEW SMALL TWEAKS TO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 714 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
AND CIGS ARE PROGGED TO FALL AS THE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY APPROACHES MIDDLE TENNESSEE. NOT A LOT OF PRECIP EXPECTED
TODAY...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FROPA AND POSSIBLY IMPACT TAF SITES...AROUND 13Z FOR
CKV...14Z FOR BNA...AND 18Z FOR CSV. EXPECT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WIND
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOR ALL
SITES BY 00Z AND REMAIN PLEASANT THROUGHOUT SUNDAY NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

RADAR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING CLEARLY DEPICTS COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BASED ON CURRENT
SPEED...FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID STATE AROUND 8 AM THEN
GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS DURING THE DAY BEFORE EXITING THE FORECAST
AREA BY EVENING. WITH MAIN UPPER FORCING WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
LIMITED DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY WARRANTING ONLY
CHANCE POPS. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 AS
DAYTIME HEATING AIDS IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...BUT CHANCE APPEARS REMOTE DUE TO LACKLUSTER
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
MID STATE SUNDAY NIGHT...RIGHT ON TIME FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
FALL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST NIGHT SO FAR THIS MONTH WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S FOR NEARLY EVERYONE EXCEPT TYPICALLY WARMER URBAN
NASHVILLE AND AREAS NEAR THE AL BORDER. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE ALOFT...ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DUE TO THE POLAR JET
BEING WAY NORTH ACROSS CANADA. BY NEXT WEEKEND...BOTH 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND HAVE KEPT MENTION IN GRIDS AND
ZONES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMEG 211512
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1012 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE CLOUDS ARE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN OHIO THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MOVED INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA BUT HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH THERE MAY BE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE
MORNING WORDING WITH NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG ACROSS THESE AREAS. THIS
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN
30-35 KTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY
ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE THIS EVENING.

CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN NORMALLY COLDER AREAS TO THE UPPER
50S IN DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD WITH AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLOWLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING NORTHWESTERLY
OUT OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION
AND HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO
HELP TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...RESULTING IN A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS AT TAF SITES...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE AT TUP
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SW/W WINDS WILL VEER NW/N WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND INCREASE TO 8-10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...THEN
BECOME LIGHT TOWARDS 22/00Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 211512
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1012 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE CLOUDS ARE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN OHIO THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MOVED INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA BUT HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH THERE MAY BE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE
MORNING WORDING WITH NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG ACROSS THESE AREAS. THIS
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN
30-35 KTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY
ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE THIS EVENING.

CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN NORMALLY COLDER AREAS TO THE UPPER
50S IN DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD WITH AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLOWLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING NORTHWESTERLY
OUT OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION
AND HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO
HELP TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...RESULTING IN A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS AT TAF SITES...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE AT TUP
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SW/W WINDS WILL VEER NW/N WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND INCREASE TO 8-10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...THEN
BECOME LIGHT TOWARDS 22/00Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMRX 211403
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1003 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTERBANKS. THIS COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS SUNSET...WITH A MARGINALLY TO
POSSIBLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT A FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...BUT
WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE SOME MORNING FOG WORDING.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             86  59  75  52 /  50  30   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  84  57  72  49 /  60  30   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       84  56  72  48 /  60  30   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              82  54  70  43 /  60  30   0   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 211403
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1003 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTERBANKS. THIS COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS SUNSET...WITH A MARGINALLY TO
POSSIBLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT A FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...BUT
WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE SOME MORNING FOG WORDING.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             86  59  75  52 /  50  30   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  84  57  72  49 /  60  30   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       84  56  72  48 /  60  30   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              82  54  70  43 /  60  30   0   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG



000
FXUS64 KOHX 211214
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
714 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
AND CIGS ARE PROGGED TO FALL AS THE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY APPROACHES MIDDLE TENNESSEE. NOT A LOT OF PRECIP EXPECTED
TODAY...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FROPA AND POSSIBLY IMPACT TAF SITES...AROUND 13Z FOR
CKV...14Z FOR BNA...AND 18Z FOR CSV. EXPECT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WIND
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOR ALL
SITES BY 00Z AND REMAIN PLEASANT THROUGHOUT SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

RADAR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING CLEARLY DEPICTS COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BASED ON CURRENT
SPEED...FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID STATE AROUND 8 AM THEN
GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS DURING THE DAY BEFORE EXITING THE FORECAST
AREA BY EVENING. WITH MAIN UPPER FORCING WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
LIMITED DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY WARRANTING ONLY
CHANCE POPS. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 AS
DAYTIME HEATING AIDS IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...BUT CHANCE APPEARS REMOTE DUE TO LACKLUSTER
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
MID STATE SUNDAY NIGHT...RIGHT ON TIME FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
FALL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST NIGHT SO FAR THIS MONTH WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S FOR NEARLY EVERYONE EXCEPT TYPICALLY WARMER URBAN
NASHVILLE AND AREAS NEAR THE AL BORDER. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE ALOFT...ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DUE TO THE POLAR JET
BEING WAY NORTH ACROSS CANADA. BY NEXT WEEKEND...BOTH 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND HAVE KEPT MENTION IN GRIDS AND
ZONES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11





000
FXUS64 KMRX 211127
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
727 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EAST TENNESSEE BETWEEN
22 AND 02Z. HAVE INCLUDE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT EACH TAF SITE
WITH TEMPO SHOWERS BETWEEN 20-00Z. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

FOR THIS MORNING (UNTIL 14Z)...PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT ONLY EXPECT MVFR POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF FROPA PRODUCING SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10-13KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20KTS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 211127
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
727 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EAST TENNESSEE BETWEEN
22 AND 02Z. HAVE INCLUDE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT EACH TAF SITE
WITH TEMPO SHOWERS BETWEEN 20-00Z. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

FOR THIS MORNING (UNTIL 14Z)...PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT ONLY EXPECT MVFR POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF FROPA PRODUCING SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10-13KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20KTS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 211127
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
727 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EAST TENNESSEE BETWEEN
22 AND 02Z. HAVE INCLUDE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT EACH TAF SITE
WITH TEMPO SHOWERS BETWEEN 20-00Z. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

FOR THIS MORNING (UNTIL 14Z)...PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT ONLY EXPECT MVFR POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF FROPA PRODUCING SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10-13KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20KTS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 211127
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
727 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EAST TENNESSEE BETWEEN
22 AND 02Z. HAVE INCLUDE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT EACH TAF SITE
WITH TEMPO SHOWERS BETWEEN 20-00Z. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

FOR THIS MORNING (UNTIL 14Z)...PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT ONLY EXPECT MVFR POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF FROPA PRODUCING SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10-13KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20KTS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 211123
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
623 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG ACROSS THESE AREAS. THIS
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN
30-35 KTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY
ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE THIS EVENING.

CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN NORMALLY COLDER AREAS TO THE UPPER
50S IN DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD WITH AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLOWLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING NORTHWESTERLY
OUT OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION
AND HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO
HELP TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...RESULTING IN A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS AT TAF SITES...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE AT TUP
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SW/W WINDS WILL VEER NW/N WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND INCREASE TO 8-10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...THEN
BECOME LIGHT TOWARDS 22/00Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMRX 211043 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
643 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA. ALSO...LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS INCREASED LIKELY-HOOD
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPPED POPS TO
LIKELY AREA-WIDE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             87  60  75  52 /  60  30  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  85  58  72  49 /  60  30  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       85  57  72  48 /  70  30  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              83  55  70  43 /  60  40  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 211043 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
643 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA. ALSO...LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS INCREASED LIKELY-HOOD
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPPED POPS TO
LIKELY AREA-WIDE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             87  60  75  52 /  60  30  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  85  58  72  49 /  60  30  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       85  57  72  48 /  70  30  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              83  55  70  43 /  60  40  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 211043 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
643 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA. ALSO...LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS INCREASED LIKELY-HOOD
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPPED POPS TO
LIKELY AREA-WIDE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             87  60  75  52 /  60  30  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  85  58  72  49 /  60  30  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       85  57  72  48 /  70  30  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              83  55  70  43 /  60  40  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 211043 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
643 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA. ALSO...LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS INCREASED LIKELY-HOOD
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPPED POPS TO
LIKELY AREA-WIDE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             87  60  75  52 /  60  30  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  85  58  72  49 /  60  30  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       85  57  72  48 /  70  30  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              83  55  70  43 /  60  40  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 210907
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
407 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG ACROSS THESE AREAS. THIS
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN
30-35 KTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY
ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE THIS EVENING.

CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN NORMALLY COLDER AREAS TO THE UPPER
50S IN DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD WITH AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLOWLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING NORTHWESTERLY
OUT OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION
AND HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO
HELP TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BE 5 KTS OR LESS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KMKL. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHRAS/TSRAS WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTH WITH KTUP HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF A TSRA ON STATION SO
PLACED A VCTS THERE FROM 21/21Z - 22/01Z.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 210907
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
407 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG ACROSS THESE AREAS. THIS
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN
30-35 KTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY
ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE THIS EVENING.

CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN NORMALLY COLDER AREAS TO THE UPPER
50S IN DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD WITH AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLOWLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING NORTHWESTERLY
OUT OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION
AND HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO
HELP TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BE 5 KTS OR LESS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KMKL. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHRAS/TSRAS WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTH WITH KTUP HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF A TSRA ON STATION SO
PLACED A VCTS THERE FROM 21/21Z - 22/01Z.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 210728
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
228 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING CLEARLY DEPICTS COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BASED ON CURRENT
SPEED...FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID STATE AROUND 8 AM THEN
GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS DURING THE DAY BEFORE EXITING THE FORECAST
AREA BY EVENING. WITH MAIN UPPER FORCING WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
LIMITED DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY WARRANTING ONLY
CHANCE POPS. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 AS
DAYTIME HEATING AIDS IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...BUT CHANCE APPEARS REMOTE DUE TO LACKLUSTER
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
MID STATE SUNDAY NIGHT...RIGHT ON TIME FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
FALL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST NIGHT SO FAR THIS MONTH WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S FOR NEARLY EVERYONE EXCEPT TYPICALLY WARMER URBAN
NASHVILLE AND AREAS NEAR THE AL BORDER. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE ALOFT...ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DUE TO THE POLAR JET
BEING WAY NORTH ACROSS CANADA. BY NEXT WEEKEND...BOTH 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND HAVE KEPT MENTION IN GRIDS AND
ZONES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      85  55  73  50 /  30   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    83  52  72  47 /  30   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     80  52  69  47 /  40  10   0   0
COLUMBIA       85  55  73  48 /  40   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   85  55  74  49 /  40  05   0   0
WAVERLY        85  54  73  48 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER





000
FXUS64 KOHX 210728
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
228 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING CLEARLY DEPICTS COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BASED ON CURRENT
SPEED...FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID STATE AROUND 8 AM THEN
GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS DURING THE DAY BEFORE EXITING THE FORECAST
AREA BY EVENING. WITH MAIN UPPER FORCING WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
LIMITED DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY WARRANTING ONLY
CHANCE POPS. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 AS
DAYTIME HEATING AIDS IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...BUT CHANCE APPEARS REMOTE DUE TO LACKLUSTER
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
MID STATE SUNDAY NIGHT...RIGHT ON TIME FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
FALL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST NIGHT SO FAR THIS MONTH WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S FOR NEARLY EVERYONE EXCEPT TYPICALLY WARMER URBAN
NASHVILLE AND AREAS NEAR THE AL BORDER. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE ALOFT...ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DUE TO THE POLAR JET
BEING WAY NORTH ACROSS CANADA. BY NEXT WEEKEND...BOTH 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND HAVE KEPT MENTION IN GRIDS AND
ZONES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      85  55  73  50 /  30   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    83  52  72  47 /  30   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     80  52  69  47 /  40  10   0   0
COLUMBIA       85  55  73  48 /  40   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   85  55  74  49 /  40  05   0   0
WAVERLY        85  54  73  48 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER





000
FXUS64 KOHX 210728
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
228 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING CLEARLY DEPICTS COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BASED ON CURRENT
SPEED...FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID STATE AROUND 8 AM THEN
GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS DURING THE DAY BEFORE EXITING THE FORECAST
AREA BY EVENING. WITH MAIN UPPER FORCING WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
LIMITED DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY WARRANTING ONLY
CHANCE POPS. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 AS
DAYTIME HEATING AIDS IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...BUT CHANCE APPEARS REMOTE DUE TO LACKLUSTER
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
MID STATE SUNDAY NIGHT...RIGHT ON TIME FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
FALL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST NIGHT SO FAR THIS MONTH WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S FOR NEARLY EVERYONE EXCEPT TYPICALLY WARMER URBAN
NASHVILLE AND AREAS NEAR THE AL BORDER. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE ALOFT...ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DUE TO THE POLAR JET
BEING WAY NORTH ACROSS CANADA. BY NEXT WEEKEND...BOTH 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND HAVE KEPT MENTION IN GRIDS AND
ZONES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      85  55  73  50 /  30   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    83  52  72  47 /  30   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     80  52  69  47 /  40  10   0   0
COLUMBIA       85  55  73  48 /  40   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   85  55  74  49 /  40  05   0   0
WAVERLY        85  54  73  48 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER





000
FXUS64 KOHX 210728
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
228 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING CLEARLY DEPICTS COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BASED ON CURRENT
SPEED...FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID STATE AROUND 8 AM THEN
GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS DURING THE DAY BEFORE EXITING THE FORECAST
AREA BY EVENING. WITH MAIN UPPER FORCING WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
LIMITED DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY WARRANTING ONLY
CHANCE POPS. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 AS
DAYTIME HEATING AIDS IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...BUT CHANCE APPEARS REMOTE DUE TO LACKLUSTER
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
MID STATE SUNDAY NIGHT...RIGHT ON TIME FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
FALL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST NIGHT SO FAR THIS MONTH WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S FOR NEARLY EVERYONE EXCEPT TYPICALLY WARMER URBAN
NASHVILLE AND AREAS NEAR THE AL BORDER. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE ALOFT...ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DUE TO THE POLAR JET
BEING WAY NORTH ACROSS CANADA. BY NEXT WEEKEND...BOTH 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND HAVE KEPT MENTION IN GRIDS AND
ZONES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      85  55  73  50 /  30   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    83  52  72  47 /  30   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     80  52  69  47 /  40  10   0   0
COLUMBIA       85  55  73  48 /  40   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   85  55  74  49 /  40  05   0   0
WAVERLY        85  54  73  48 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER





000
FXUS64 KMRX 210711
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
311 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...FOR THIS MORNING...CLEAR SKY AND
CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG AND LOW-CLOUDS. FOG WILL DISSIPATE
BY MID-MORNING.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. AIR-MASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. PWS INCREASE TO 1.4-1.5
INCHES...SO ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED-BROKEN
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND
WITH A BOUNDARY LAYER JET INCREASING TO 30KTS...SOME OF THE STORMS
WILL BE STRONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE. WILL INCLUDE IN HWO.

ALSO...WBZ ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH MARGINAL HAIL-CAPES TO PRODUCE PEA
TO 1/2 INCH SIZE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY 01-03Z THIS EVENING WITH
DRIER AND COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...OVERALL VERY QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED. HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THE MAIN FEATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. THE FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...BRINGING
MUCH COOLER AIR THAN THE AREA HAS SEEN THIS FALL. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THIS
HIGH AND ADVECT INTO THE REGION. BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS FOR MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             87  60  75  52 /  50  30  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  85  58  72  49 /  60  30  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       85  57  72  48 /  60  30  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              83  55  70  43 /  60  40  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 210711
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
311 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...FOR THIS MORNING...CLEAR SKY AND
CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG AND LOW-CLOUDS. FOG WILL DISSIPATE
BY MID-MORNING.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. AIR-MASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. PWS INCREASE TO 1.4-1.5
INCHES...SO ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED-BROKEN
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND
WITH A BOUNDARY LAYER JET INCREASING TO 30KTS...SOME OF THE STORMS
WILL BE STRONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE. WILL INCLUDE IN HWO.

ALSO...WBZ ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH MARGINAL HAIL-CAPES TO PRODUCE PEA
TO 1/2 INCH SIZE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY 01-03Z THIS EVENING WITH
DRIER AND COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...OVERALL VERY QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED. HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THE MAIN FEATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. THE FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...BRINGING
MUCH COOLER AIR THAN THE AREA HAS SEEN THIS FALL. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THIS
HIGH AND ADVECT INTO THE REGION. BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS FOR MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             87  60  75  52 /  50  30  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  85  58  72  49 /  60  30  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       85  57  72  48 /  60  30  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              83  55  70  43 /  60  40  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 210711
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
311 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...FOR THIS MORNING...CLEAR SKY AND
CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG AND LOW-CLOUDS. FOG WILL DISSIPATE
BY MID-MORNING.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. AIR-MASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. PWS INCREASE TO 1.4-1.5
INCHES...SO ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED-BROKEN
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND
WITH A BOUNDARY LAYER JET INCREASING TO 30KTS...SOME OF THE STORMS
WILL BE STRONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE. WILL INCLUDE IN HWO.

ALSO...WBZ ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH MARGINAL HAIL-CAPES TO PRODUCE PEA
TO 1/2 INCH SIZE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY 01-03Z THIS EVENING WITH
DRIER AND COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...OVERALL VERY QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED. HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THE MAIN FEATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. THE FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...BRINGING
MUCH COOLER AIR THAN THE AREA HAS SEEN THIS FALL. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THIS
HIGH AND ADVECT INTO THE REGION. BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS FOR MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             87  60  75  52 /  50  30  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  85  58  72  49 /  60  30  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       85  57  72  48 /  60  30  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              83  55  70  43 /  60  40  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 210711
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
311 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...FOR THIS MORNING...CLEAR SKY AND
CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG AND LOW-CLOUDS. FOG WILL DISSIPATE
BY MID-MORNING.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. AIR-MASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. PWS INCREASE TO 1.4-1.5
INCHES...SO ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED-BROKEN
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND
WITH A BOUNDARY LAYER JET INCREASING TO 30KTS...SOME OF THE STORMS
WILL BE STRONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE. WILL INCLUDE IN HWO.

ALSO...WBZ ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH MARGINAL HAIL-CAPES TO PRODUCE PEA
TO 1/2 INCH SIZE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY 01-03Z THIS EVENING WITH
DRIER AND COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...OVERALL VERY QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED. HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THE MAIN FEATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. THE FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...BRINGING
MUCH COOLER AIR THAN THE AREA HAS SEEN THIS FALL. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THIS
HIGH AND ADVECT INTO THE REGION. BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS FOR MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             87  60  75  52 /  50  30  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  85  58  72  49 /  60  30  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       85  57  72  48 /  60  30  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              83  55  70  43 /  60  40  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 210537
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
137 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EAST
TENNESSEE BETWEEN 22 AND 02Z. HAVE INCLUDE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT
EACH TAF SITE. BESIDES THE STORMS...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TRI
BETWEEN 09-13Z AT TRI DUE TO FOG.

AHEAD OF FROPA THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 12KTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS AT TYS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 210451
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1151 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR
TONIGHT...LIGHT SSW WINDS WITH FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS. SOME MVFR BR
POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK AT CSV. ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 10G20KT AND BECMG
NW. A FEW SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR SUNDAY...BUT ATMOSPHERE ON THE DRY
SIDE...SO COVERAGE ABOUT 20 PERCENT...AND TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

UPDATE...
REMOVED THRU LATE AFTERNOON GROUPING IN ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HRLY TEMP/DEWPOINT/WIND GRIDS. ADDED
AN HOUR OF PATCHY FOG BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z PLATEAU REGION. OTHERWISE
REMAINDER OF FORECAST/FORECAST REASONING ON TRACK.

31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A RATHER QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR MIDDLE TN OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. WE`LL FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND HOWEVER WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
THIS FRONT IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST REGION...AND WILL
LIKELY REACH THE TN/KY BORDER SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS COULD
POP UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SO THINK OUR BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
TOMORROW WILL BE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. COULD HAVE A FEW SHOWERS
LAG INTO THE EVENING HOURS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH BUT NOT TOO
IMPRESSED WITH THE OVERALL MOISTURE FIELDS. THINK 50 POPS ARE TOO
HIGH SO HAVE TRIMMED THOSE BACK TO LOWER CHANCES.

ONCE THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PUSH THROUGH THE MID STATE...UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. NOT SURE WE COULD ASK FOR BETTER WEATHER FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
FALL AS MONDAY`S AFTERNOON HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
INTO THE LOW 80S BY FRIDAY WITH COOL NIGHTS IN THE 50S CONTINUING. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HAVE WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
NOSING INTO THE TN VALLEY FROM THE GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS
BETWEEN THE TWO ARE QUITE DIFFERENT...WENT AHEAD AND INSERTED POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR SATURDAY GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS.

AL

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 210451
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1151 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR
TONIGHT...LIGHT SSW WINDS WITH FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS. SOME MVFR BR
POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK AT CSV. ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 10G20KT AND BECMG
NW. A FEW SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR SUNDAY...BUT ATMOSPHERE ON THE DRY
SIDE...SO COVERAGE ABOUT 20 PERCENT...AND TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

UPDATE...
REMOVED THRU LATE AFTERNOON GROUPING IN ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HRLY TEMP/DEWPOINT/WIND GRIDS. ADDED
AN HOUR OF PATCHY FOG BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z PLATEAU REGION. OTHERWISE
REMAINDER OF FORECAST/FORECAST REASONING ON TRACK.

31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A RATHER QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR MIDDLE TN OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. WE`LL FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND HOWEVER WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
THIS FRONT IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST REGION...AND WILL
LIKELY REACH THE TN/KY BORDER SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS COULD
POP UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SO THINK OUR BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
TOMORROW WILL BE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. COULD HAVE A FEW SHOWERS
LAG INTO THE EVENING HOURS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH BUT NOT TOO
IMPRESSED WITH THE OVERALL MOISTURE FIELDS. THINK 50 POPS ARE TOO
HIGH SO HAVE TRIMMED THOSE BACK TO LOWER CHANCES.

ONCE THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PUSH THROUGH THE MID STATE...UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. NOT SURE WE COULD ASK FOR BETTER WEATHER FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
FALL AS MONDAY`S AFTERNOON HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
INTO THE LOW 80S BY FRIDAY WITH COOL NIGHTS IN THE 50S CONTINUING. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HAVE WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
NOSING INTO THE TN VALLEY FROM THE GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS
BETWEEN THE TWO ARE QUITE DIFFERENT...WENT AHEAD AND INSERTED POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR SATURDAY GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS.

AL

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 210451
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1151 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR
TONIGHT...LIGHT SSW WINDS WITH FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS. SOME MVFR BR
POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK AT CSV. ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 10G20KT AND BECMG
NW. A FEW SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR SUNDAY...BUT ATMOSPHERE ON THE DRY
SIDE...SO COVERAGE ABOUT 20 PERCENT...AND TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

UPDATE...
REMOVED THRU LATE AFTERNOON GROUPING IN ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HRLY TEMP/DEWPOINT/WIND GRIDS. ADDED
AN HOUR OF PATCHY FOG BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z PLATEAU REGION. OTHERWISE
REMAINDER OF FORECAST/FORECAST REASONING ON TRACK.

31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A RATHER QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR MIDDLE TN OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. WE`LL FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND HOWEVER WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
THIS FRONT IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST REGION...AND WILL
LIKELY REACH THE TN/KY BORDER SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS COULD
POP UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SO THINK OUR BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
TOMORROW WILL BE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. COULD HAVE A FEW SHOWERS
LAG INTO THE EVENING HOURS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH BUT NOT TOO
IMPRESSED WITH THE OVERALL MOISTURE FIELDS. THINK 50 POPS ARE TOO
HIGH SO HAVE TRIMMED THOSE BACK TO LOWER CHANCES.

ONCE THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PUSH THROUGH THE MID STATE...UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. NOT SURE WE COULD ASK FOR BETTER WEATHER FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
FALL AS MONDAY`S AFTERNOON HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
INTO THE LOW 80S BY FRIDAY WITH COOL NIGHTS IN THE 50S CONTINUING. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HAVE WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
NOSING INTO THE TN VALLEY FROM THE GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS
BETWEEN THE TWO ARE QUITE DIFFERENT...WENT AHEAD AND INSERTED POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR SATURDAY GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS.

AL

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 210451
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1151 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR
TONIGHT...LIGHT SSW WINDS WITH FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS. SOME MVFR BR
POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK AT CSV. ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 10G20KT AND BECMG
NW. A FEW SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR SUNDAY...BUT ATMOSPHERE ON THE DRY
SIDE...SO COVERAGE ABOUT 20 PERCENT...AND TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

UPDATE...
REMOVED THRU LATE AFTERNOON GROUPING IN ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HRLY TEMP/DEWPOINT/WIND GRIDS. ADDED
AN HOUR OF PATCHY FOG BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z PLATEAU REGION. OTHERWISE
REMAINDER OF FORECAST/FORECAST REASONING ON TRACK.

31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A RATHER QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR MIDDLE TN OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. WE`LL FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND HOWEVER WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
THIS FRONT IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST REGION...AND WILL
LIKELY REACH THE TN/KY BORDER SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS COULD
POP UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SO THINK OUR BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
TOMORROW WILL BE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. COULD HAVE A FEW SHOWERS
LAG INTO THE EVENING HOURS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH BUT NOT TOO
IMPRESSED WITH THE OVERALL MOISTURE FIELDS. THINK 50 POPS ARE TOO
HIGH SO HAVE TRIMMED THOSE BACK TO LOWER CHANCES.

ONCE THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PUSH THROUGH THE MID STATE...UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. NOT SURE WE COULD ASK FOR BETTER WEATHER FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
FALL AS MONDAY`S AFTERNOON HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
INTO THE LOW 80S BY FRIDAY WITH COOL NIGHTS IN THE 50S CONTINUING. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HAVE WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
NOSING INTO THE TN VALLEY FROM THE GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS
BETWEEN THE TWO ARE QUITE DIFFERENT...WENT AHEAD AND INSERTED POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR SATURDAY GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS.

AL

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 210429
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1129 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH AROUND SUNRISE. MODELS
INDICATING ALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH
OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. SOME CIRRUS IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
NORTH MISSISSIPPI BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO OCCUR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...WILL ONLY
UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANY RAIN THAT MAY DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT WITH LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
SO IT APPEARS THAT NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY NOT
SEE ANY RAIN WHILE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY
WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN IT APPEARS THAT FEW IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL OFF SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ON
MONDAY DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH SOME LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW
50 DEGREES BY TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST STARTING TUESDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BRING WARMER AIR BACK
INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UP
SOME ON TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION NEXT SATURDAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BE 5 KTS OR LESS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KMKL. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHRAS/TSRAS WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTH WITH KTUP HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF A TSRA ON STATION SO
PLACED A VCTS THERE FROM 21/21Z - 22/01Z.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 210145
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
845 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH AROUND SUNRISE. MODELS
INDICATING ALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH
OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. SOME CIRRUS IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
NORTH MISSISSIPPI BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO OCCUR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...WILL ONLY
UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANY RAIN THAT MAY DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT WITH LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
SO IT APPEARS THAT NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY NOT
SEE ANY RAIN WHILE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY
WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN IT APPEARS THAT FEW IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL OFF SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ON
MONDAY DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH SOME LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW
50 DEGREES BY TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST STARTING TUESDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BRING WARMER AIR BACK
INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UP
SOME ON TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION NEXT SATURDAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BE 5 KTS OR LESS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHRAS/TSRAS
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH WITH KTUP HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE OF A TSRA ON STATION SO PLACED A VCTS THERE.

SJM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 210145
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
845 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH AROUND SUNRISE. MODELS
INDICATING ALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH
OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. SOME CIRRUS IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
NORTH MISSISSIPPI BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO OCCUR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...WILL ONLY
UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANY RAIN THAT MAY DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT WITH LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
SO IT APPEARS THAT NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY NOT
SEE ANY RAIN WHILE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY
WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN IT APPEARS THAT FEW IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL OFF SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ON
MONDAY DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH SOME LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW
50 DEGREES BY TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST STARTING TUESDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BRING WARMER AIR BACK
INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UP
SOME ON TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION NEXT SATURDAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BE 5 KTS OR LESS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHRAS/TSRAS
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH WITH KTUP HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE OF A TSRA ON STATION SO PLACED A VCTS THERE.

SJM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 210103 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
903 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND HAS RESULTED IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. THIS HAS ALLOWED
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE AGAIN AS TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN
WELL INTO THE 70S THIS EVENING...AND WILL EVENTUALLY BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK.
GIVEN THE CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH THE WARM
LAKE/RIVER WATER TEMPS...A GOOD SET UP FOR PATCHY FOG ALONG BODIES
OF WATER WILL EXIST LATE TONIGHT ONCE AGAIN...AS WELL AS IN
SHELTERED AREAS WHERE WINDS COMPLETELY DECOUPLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             64  85  59  75 /   0  40  30  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  62  83  58  72 /   0  40  30  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       62  84  57  72 /   0  40  30  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              56  82  55  70 /   0  50  40  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP



000
FXUS64 KOHX 210010 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
710 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED THRU LATE AFTERNOON GROUPING IN ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HRLY TEMP/DEWPOINT/WIND GRIDS. ADDED
AN HOUR OF PATCHY FOG BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z PLATEAU REGION. OTHERWISE
REMAINDER OF FORECAST/FORECAST REASONING ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 631 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR
TONIGHT...LIGHT SSW WINDS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. ON
SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 10G20KT AND BECMG NW. A FEW SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY...BUT NOT IN TAFS SINCE POPS ARE QUITE LOW...IN THE 10-20
PERCENT RANGE.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A RATHER QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR MIDDLE TN OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. WE`LL FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND HOWEVER WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
THIS FRONT IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST REGION...AND WILL
LIKELY REACH THE TN/KY BORDER SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS COULD
POP UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SO THINK OUR BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
TOMORROW WILL BE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. COULD HAVE A FEW SHOWERS
LAG INTO THE EVENING HOURS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH BUT NOT TOO
IMPRESSED WITH THE OVERALL MOISTURE FIELDS. THINK 50 POPS ARE TOO
HIGH SO HAVE TRIMMED THOSE BACK TO LOWER CHANCES.

ONCE THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PUSH THROUGH THE MID STATE...UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. NOT SURE WE COULD ASK FOR BETTER WEATHER FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
FALL AS MONDAY`S AFTERNOON HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
INTO THE LOW 80S BY FRIDAY WITH COOL NIGHTS IN THE 50S CONTINUING. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HAVE WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
NOSING INTO THE TN VALLEY FROM THE GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS
BETWEEN THE TWO ARE QUITE DIFFERENT...WENT AHEAD AND INSERTED POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR SATURDAY GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS.

AL

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 210010 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
710 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED THRU LATE AFTERNOON GROUPING IN ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HRLY TEMP/DEWPOINT/WIND GRIDS. ADDED
AN HOUR OF PATCHY FOG BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z PLATEAU REGION. OTHERWISE
REMAINDER OF FORECAST/FORECAST REASONING ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 631 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR
TONIGHT...LIGHT SSW WINDS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. ON
SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 10G20KT AND BECMG NW. A FEW SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY...BUT NOT IN TAFS SINCE POPS ARE QUITE LOW...IN THE 10-20
PERCENT RANGE.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A RATHER QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR MIDDLE TN OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. WE`LL FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND HOWEVER WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
THIS FRONT IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST REGION...AND WILL
LIKELY REACH THE TN/KY BORDER SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS COULD
POP UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SO THINK OUR BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
TOMORROW WILL BE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. COULD HAVE A FEW SHOWERS
LAG INTO THE EVENING HOURS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH BUT NOT TOO
IMPRESSED WITH THE OVERALL MOISTURE FIELDS. THINK 50 POPS ARE TOO
HIGH SO HAVE TRIMMED THOSE BACK TO LOWER CHANCES.

ONCE THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PUSH THROUGH THE MID STATE...UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. NOT SURE WE COULD ASK FOR BETTER WEATHER FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
FALL AS MONDAY`S AFTERNOON HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
INTO THE LOW 80S BY FRIDAY WITH COOL NIGHTS IN THE 50S CONTINUING. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HAVE WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
NOSING INTO THE TN VALLEY FROM THE GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS
BETWEEN THE TWO ARE QUITE DIFFERENT...WENT AHEAD AND INSERTED POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR SATURDAY GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS.

AL

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KMRX 202351 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
751 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME -TSRA/-SHRA WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED REDUCED VIS/CIGS. BUT...KEPT THINGS AT VFR
LEVELS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN OVERALL TIMING/COVERAGE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP



000
FXUS64 KMRX 202351 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
751 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME -TSRA/-SHRA WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED REDUCED VIS/CIGS. BUT...KEPT THINGS AT VFR
LEVELS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN OVERALL TIMING/COVERAGE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP



000
FXUS64 KMRX 202351 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
751 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME -TSRA/-SHRA WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED REDUCED VIS/CIGS. BUT...KEPT THINGS AT VFR
LEVELS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN OVERALL TIMING/COVERAGE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP



000
FXUS64 KMRX 202351 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
751 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME -TSRA/-SHRA WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED REDUCED VIS/CIGS. BUT...KEPT THINGS AT VFR
LEVELS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN OVERALL TIMING/COVERAGE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP



000
FXUS64 KOHX 202331
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
631 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR
TONIGHT...LIGHT SSW WINDS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. ON
SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 10G20KT AND BECMG NW. A FEW SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY...BUT NOT IN TAFS SINCE POPS ARE QUITE LOW...IN THE 10-20
PERCENT RANGE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A RATHER QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR MIDDLE TN OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. WE`LL FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND HOWEVER WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
THIS FRONT IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST REGION...AND WILL
LIKELY REACH THE TN/KY BORDER SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS COULD
POP UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SO THINK OUR BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
TOMORROW WILL BE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. COULD HAVE A FEW SHOWERS
LAG INTO THE EVENING HOURS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH BUT NOT TOO
IMPRESSED WITH THE OVERALL MOISTURE FIELDS. THINK 50 POPS ARE TOO
HIGH SO HAVE TRIMMED THOSE BACK TO LOWER CHANCES.

ONCE THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PUSH THROUGH THE MID STATE...UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. NOT SURE WE COULD ASK FOR BETTER WEATHER FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
FALL AS MONDAY`S AFTERNOON HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
INTO THE LOW 80S BY FRIDAY WITH COOL NIGHTS IN THE 50S CONTINUING. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HAVE WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
NOSING INTO THE TN VALLEY FROM THE GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS
BETWEEN THE TWO ARE QUITE DIFFERENT...WENT AHEAD AND INSERTED POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR SATURDAY GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS.

AL

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMEG 202301
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
601 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANY RAIN THAT MAY DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT WITH LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
SO IT APPEARS THAT NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY NOT
SEE ANY RAIN WHILE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY
WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN IT APPEARS THAT FEW IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL OFF SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ON
MONDAY DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH SOME LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW
50 DEGREES BY TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST STARTING TUESDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BRING WARMER AIR BACK
INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UP
SOME ON TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION NEXT SATURDAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BE 5 KTS OR LESS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHRAS/TSRAS
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH WITH KTUP HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE OF A TSRA ON STATION SO PLACED A VCTS THERE.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 202301
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
601 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANY RAIN THAT MAY DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT WITH LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
SO IT APPEARS THAT NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY NOT
SEE ANY RAIN WHILE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY
WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN IT APPEARS THAT FEW IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL OFF SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ON
MONDAY DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH SOME LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW
50 DEGREES BY TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST STARTING TUESDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BRING WARMER AIR BACK
INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UP
SOME ON TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION NEXT SATURDAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BE 5 KTS OR LESS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHRAS/TSRAS
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH WITH KTUP HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE OF A TSRA ON STATION SO PLACED A VCTS THERE.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 202301
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
601 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANY RAIN THAT MAY DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT WITH LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
SO IT APPEARS THAT NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY NOT
SEE ANY RAIN WHILE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY
WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN IT APPEARS THAT FEW IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL OFF SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ON
MONDAY DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH SOME LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW
50 DEGREES BY TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST STARTING TUESDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BRING WARMER AIR BACK
INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UP
SOME ON TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION NEXT SATURDAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BE 5 KTS OR LESS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHRAS/TSRAS
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH WITH KTUP HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE OF A TSRA ON STATION SO PLACED A VCTS THERE.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 202301
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
601 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANY RAIN THAT MAY DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT WITH LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
SO IT APPEARS THAT NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY NOT
SEE ANY RAIN WHILE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY
WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN IT APPEARS THAT FEW IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL OFF SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ON
MONDAY DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH SOME LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW
50 DEGREES BY TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST STARTING TUESDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BRING WARMER AIR BACK
INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UP
SOME ON TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION NEXT SATURDAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BE 5 KTS OR LESS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHRAS/TSRAS
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH WITH KTUP HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE OF A TSRA ON STATION SO PLACED A VCTS THERE.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 202008
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
308 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANY RAIN THAT MAY DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT WITH LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
SO IT APPEARS THAT NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY NOT
SEE ANY RAIN WHILE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY
WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN IT APPEARS THAT FEW IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL OFF SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ON
MONDAY DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH SOME LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW
50 DEGREES BY TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST STARTING TUESDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BRING WARMER AIR BACK
INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UP
SOME ON TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION NEXT SATURDAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (20/18Z-21/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
S-SW 7 KTS. WINDS TONIGHT SW 5 KTS OR LESS. WINDS SUNDAY MORNING
BECOMING WESTERLY 6-8 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 202008
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
308 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANY RAIN THAT MAY DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT WITH LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
SO IT APPEARS THAT NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY NOT
SEE ANY RAIN WHILE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY
WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN IT APPEARS THAT FEW IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL OFF SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ON
MONDAY DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH SOME LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW
50 DEGREES BY TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST STARTING TUESDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BRING WARMER AIR BACK
INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UP
SOME ON TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION NEXT SATURDAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (20/18Z-21/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
S-SW 7 KTS. WINDS TONIGHT SW 5 KTS OR LESS. WINDS SUNDAY MORNING
BECOMING WESTERLY 6-8 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 201905
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
205 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A RATHER QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR MIDDLE TN OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. WE`LL FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND HOWEVER WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
THIS FRONT IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST REGION...AND WILL
LIKELY REACH THE TN/KY BORDER SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS COULD
POP UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SO THINK OUR BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
TOMORROW WILL BE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. COULD HAVE A FEW SHOWERS
LAG INTO THE EVENING HOURS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH BUT NOT TOO
IMPRESSED WITH THE OVERALL MOISTURE FIELDS. THINK 50 POPS ARE TOO
HIGH SO HAVE TRIMMED THOSE BACK TO LOWER CHANCES.

ONCE THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PUSH THROUGH THE MID STATE...UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. NOT SURE WE COULD ASK FOR BETTER WEATHER FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
FALL AS MONDAY`S AFTERNOON HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
INTO THE LOW 80S BY FRIDAY WITH COOL NIGHTS IN THE 50S CONTINUING. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HAVE WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
NOSING INTO THE TN VALLEY FROM THE GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS
BETWEEN THE TWO ARE QUITE DIFFERENT...WENT AHEAD AND INSERTED POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR SATURDAY GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      69  84  56  73 /  10  30  10   0
CLARKSVILLE    65  83  53  71 /  20  30  10   0
CROSSVILLE     64  79  54  69 /  10  40  20   0
COLUMBIA       65  85  55  73 /  10  30  20   0
LAWRENCEBURG   66  85  56  74 /  10  40  20   0
WAVERLY        67  84  54  73 /  10  30  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL





000
FXUS64 KOHX 201905
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
205 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A RATHER QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR MIDDLE TN OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. WE`LL FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND HOWEVER WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
THIS FRONT IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST REGION...AND WILL
LIKELY REACH THE TN/KY BORDER SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS COULD
POP UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SO THINK OUR BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
TOMORROW WILL BE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. COULD HAVE A FEW SHOWERS
LAG INTO THE EVENING HOURS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH BUT NOT TOO
IMPRESSED WITH THE OVERALL MOISTURE FIELDS. THINK 50 POPS ARE TOO
HIGH SO HAVE TRIMMED THOSE BACK TO LOWER CHANCES.

ONCE THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PUSH THROUGH THE MID STATE...UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. NOT SURE WE COULD ASK FOR BETTER WEATHER FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
FALL AS MONDAY`S AFTERNOON HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
INTO THE LOW 80S BY FRIDAY WITH COOL NIGHTS IN THE 50S CONTINUING. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HAVE WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
NOSING INTO THE TN VALLEY FROM THE GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS
BETWEEN THE TWO ARE QUITE DIFFERENT...WENT AHEAD AND INSERTED POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR SATURDAY GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      69  84  56  73 /  10  30  10   0
CLARKSVILLE    65  83  53  71 /  20  30  10   0
CROSSVILLE     64  79  54  69 /  10  40  20   0
COLUMBIA       65  85  55  73 /  10  30  20   0
LAWRENCEBURG   66  85  56  74 /  10  40  20   0
WAVERLY        67  84  54  73 /  10  30  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL






000
FXUS64 KMRX 201850
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
250 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY.
THIS COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AHEAD AND BEHIND IT. GFS AND NAM MODELS REVEAL SOME
DISCREPANCIES WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD
FRONT...AND WILL GENERALLY COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO BY KEEPING
POPS IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY. GFS MODEL INDICATES SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE NAM MODEL INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS...
GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MINS FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND LOOK REASONABLE. WILL COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE TWO SETS OF GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO MAXES ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...VERY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD
FOLLOWING THE SHORT TERMS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BY MONDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR
AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO FURTHER MOVE OFF TO
OUR NE OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH DUE
TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OF THE TROUGH. THE POST FRONTAL
AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH DRIER AIR ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. WITH CLEAR SKIES MONDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END
OF THE EXTENDED. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEK...MOISTURE STARTS TO SLOWLY BUILD BACK IN ACROSS
THE AREA BY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL VALLEY AND CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SW NC.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BUT
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GRADUAL WARM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD TO NEAR NORMAL
BY DAY 7. EXPECT SEVERAL MORNINGS AND EVENINGS TO HAVE A FALL-LIKE
FEEL TO THEM AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             62  85  59  75 /   0  40  30  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  62  83  58  72 /   0  40  30  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       62  84  57  72 /   0  40  30  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              56  82  55  70 /   0  50  40  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 201850
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
250 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY.
THIS COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AHEAD AND BEHIND IT. GFS AND NAM MODELS REVEAL SOME
DISCREPANCIES WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD
FRONT...AND WILL GENERALLY COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO BY KEEPING
POPS IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY. GFS MODEL INDICATES SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE NAM MODEL INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS...
GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MINS FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND LOOK REASONABLE. WILL COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE TWO SETS OF GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO MAXES ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...VERY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD
FOLLOWING THE SHORT TERMS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BY MONDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR
AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO FURTHER MOVE OFF TO
OUR NE OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH DUE
TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OF THE TROUGH. THE POST FRONTAL
AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH DRIER AIR ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. WITH CLEAR SKIES MONDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END
OF THE EXTENDED. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEK...MOISTURE STARTS TO SLOWLY BUILD BACK IN ACROSS
THE AREA BY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL VALLEY AND CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SW NC.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BUT
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GRADUAL WARM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD TO NEAR NORMAL
BY DAY 7. EXPECT SEVERAL MORNINGS AND EVENINGS TO HAVE A FALL-LIKE
FEEL TO THEM AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             62  85  59  75 /   0  40  30  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  62  83  58  72 /   0  40  30  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       62  84  57  72 /   0  40  30  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              56  82  55  70 /   0  50  40  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 201850
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
250 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY.
THIS COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AHEAD AND BEHIND IT. GFS AND NAM MODELS REVEAL SOME
DISCREPANCIES WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD
FRONT...AND WILL GENERALLY COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO BY KEEPING
POPS IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY. GFS MODEL INDICATES SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE NAM MODEL INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS...
GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MINS FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND LOOK REASONABLE. WILL COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE TWO SETS OF GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO MAXES ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...VERY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD
FOLLOWING THE SHORT TERMS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BY MONDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR
AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO FURTHER MOVE OFF TO
OUR NE OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH DUE
TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OF THE TROUGH. THE POST FRONTAL
AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH DRIER AIR ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. WITH CLEAR SKIES MONDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END
OF THE EXTENDED. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEK...MOISTURE STARTS TO SLOWLY BUILD BACK IN ACROSS
THE AREA BY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL VALLEY AND CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SW NC.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BUT
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GRADUAL WARM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD TO NEAR NORMAL
BY DAY 7. EXPECT SEVERAL MORNINGS AND EVENINGS TO HAVE A FALL-LIKE
FEEL TO THEM AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             62  85  59  75 /   0  40  30  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  62  83  58  72 /   0  40  30  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       62  84  57  72 /   0  40  30  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              56  82  55  70 /   0  50  40  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 201850
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
250 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY.
THIS COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AHEAD AND BEHIND IT. GFS AND NAM MODELS REVEAL SOME
DISCREPANCIES WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD
FRONT...AND WILL GENERALLY COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO BY KEEPING
POPS IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY. GFS MODEL INDICATES SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE NAM MODEL INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS...
GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MINS FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND LOOK REASONABLE. WILL COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE TWO SETS OF GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO MAXES ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...VERY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD
FOLLOWING THE SHORT TERMS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BY MONDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR
AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO FURTHER MOVE OFF TO
OUR NE OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH DUE
TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OF THE TROUGH. THE POST FRONTAL
AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH DRIER AIR ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. WITH CLEAR SKIES MONDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END
OF THE EXTENDED. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEK...MOISTURE STARTS TO SLOWLY BUILD BACK IN ACROSS
THE AREA BY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL VALLEY AND CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SW NC.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BUT
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GRADUAL WARM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD TO NEAR NORMAL
BY DAY 7. EXPECT SEVERAL MORNINGS AND EVENINGS TO HAVE A FALL-LIKE
FEEL TO THEM AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             62  85  59  75 /   0  40  30  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  62  83  58  72 /   0  40  30  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       62  84  57  72 /   0  40  30  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              56  82  55  70 /   0  50  40  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/SR




000
FXUS64 KOHX 201846
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
146 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...CORRECTION.

18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE MID-STATE
JUST AFT 12Z SUN. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE
ALTHOUGH SHWRS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE 13-18Z SUN
WINDOW. THESE SHOWER LIKELY TO BE ISO/SCT IN NATURE SO WILL
INCLUDE AS VCNTY AT THIS TIME. CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY
LARGELY TO REMAIN VFR ALTHOUGH VCNTY PCPN COULD BRIEFLY LOWER.
W/NW WIND EARLY SUN EXPECTED TO INCREASE 10-20MPH.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

SOME LIGHT BR MAY AFFECT CKV BRIEFLY EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED WITH
SOUTH WINDS 5-10 KTS. PRECIP WILL APPROACH CKV BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD BUT SHOULD NOT CAUSE IMPACTS UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...AND AROUND 80 FOR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE A SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...KEEPING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR
THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO WARM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THOSE
AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL AFTER NOON.
WILL SEE SLIGHTLY MORE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE AFTERNOON FROPA AND
DAYTIME HEATING. STILL NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER...JUST GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND 8AM AND PUSH THE THROUGH THE CWA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DRY AS
A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS IN THE FOR THE DAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN...INFLUENCING DRY WEATHER FOR REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS GRADUALLY WARMING FROM AROUND 50 ON
MONDAY NIGHT TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KOHX 201846
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
146 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...CORRECTION.

18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE MID-STATE
JUST AFT 12Z SUN. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE
ALTHOUGH SHWRS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE 13-18Z SUN
WINDOW. THESE SHOWER LIKELY TO BE ISO/SCT IN NATURE SO WILL
INCLUDE AS VCNTY AT THIS TIME. CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY
LARGELY TO REMAIN VFR ALTHOUGH VCNTY PCPN COULD BRIEFLY LOWER.
W/NW WIND EARLY SUN EXPECTED TO INCREASE 10-20MPH.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

SOME LIGHT BR MAY AFFECT CKV BRIEFLY EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED WITH
SOUTH WINDS 5-10 KTS. PRECIP WILL APPROACH CKV BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD BUT SHOULD NOT CAUSE IMPACTS UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...AND AROUND 80 FOR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE A SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...KEEPING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR
THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO WARM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THOSE
AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL AFTER NOON.
WILL SEE SLIGHTLY MORE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE AFTERNOON FROPA AND
DAYTIME HEATING. STILL NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER...JUST GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND 8AM AND PUSH THE THROUGH THE CWA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DRY AS
A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS IN THE FOR THE DAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN...INFLUENCING DRY WEATHER FOR REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS GRADUALLY WARMING FROM AROUND 50 ON
MONDAY NIGHT TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KOHX 201846
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
146 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...CORRECTION.

18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE MID-STATE
JUST AFT 12Z SUN. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE
ALTHOUGH SHWRS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE 13-18Z SUN
WINDOW. THESE SHOWER LIKELY TO BE ISO/SCT IN NATURE SO WILL
INCLUDE AS VCNTY AT THIS TIME. CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY
LARGELY TO REMAIN VFR ALTHOUGH VCNTY PCPN COULD BRIEFLY LOWER.
W/NW WIND EARLY SUN EXPECTED TO INCREASE 10-20MPH.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

SOME LIGHT BR MAY AFFECT CKV BRIEFLY EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED WITH
SOUTH WINDS 5-10 KTS. PRECIP WILL APPROACH CKV BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD BUT SHOULD NOT CAUSE IMPACTS UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...AND AROUND 80 FOR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE A SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...KEEPING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR
THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO WARM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THOSE
AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL AFTER NOON.
WILL SEE SLIGHTLY MORE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE AFTERNOON FROPA AND
DAYTIME HEATING. STILL NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER...JUST GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND 8AM AND PUSH THE THROUGH THE CWA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DRY AS
A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS IN THE FOR THE DAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN...INFLUENCING DRY WEATHER FOR REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS GRADUALLY WARMING FROM AROUND 50 ON
MONDAY NIGHT TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KOHX 201846
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
146 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...CORRECTION.

18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE MID-STATE
JUST AFT 12Z SUN. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE
ALTHOUGH SHWRS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE 13-18Z SUN
WINDOW. THESE SHOWER LIKELY TO BE ISO/SCT IN NATURE SO WILL
INCLUDE AS VCNTY AT THIS TIME. CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY
LARGELY TO REMAIN VFR ALTHOUGH VCNTY PCPN COULD BRIEFLY LOWER.
W/NW WIND EARLY SUN EXPECTED TO INCREASE 10-20MPH.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

SOME LIGHT BR MAY AFFECT CKV BRIEFLY EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED WITH
SOUTH WINDS 5-10 KTS. PRECIP WILL APPROACH CKV BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD BUT SHOULD NOT CAUSE IMPACTS UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...AND AROUND 80 FOR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE A SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...KEEPING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR
THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO WARM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THOSE
AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL AFTER NOON.
WILL SEE SLIGHTLY MORE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE AFTERNOON FROPA AND
DAYTIME HEATING. STILL NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER...JUST GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND 8AM AND PUSH THE THROUGH THE CWA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DRY AS
A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS IN THE FOR THE DAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN...INFLUENCING DRY WEATHER FOR REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS GRADUALLY WARMING FROM AROUND 50 ON
MONDAY NIGHT TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KOHX 201744
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1244 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE MID-STATE
JUST AFT 12Z SUN. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE
ALTHOUGH SHWRS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE 13-18Z SUN
WINDOW. THESE SHOWER LIKELY TO BE ISO/SCT IN NATURE SO WILL
INCLUDE AS VCNTY AT THIS TIME. CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY
LARGELY TO REMAIN VFR ALTHOUGH VCNTY PCPN COULD BRIEFLY LOWER.
W/NW WIND EARLY SUN EXPECTED TO INCREASE 10-20MPH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

SOME LIGHT BR MAY AFFECT CKV BRIEFLY EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED WITH
SOUTH WINDS 5-10 KTS. PRECIP WILL APPROACH CKV BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD BUT SHOULD NOT CAUSE IMPACTS UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...AND AROUND 80 FOR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE A SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...KEEPING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR
THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO WARM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THOSE
AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL AFTER NOON.
WILL SEE SLIGHTLY MORE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE AFTERNOON FROPA AND
DAYTIME HEATING. STILL NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER...JUST GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND 8AM AND PUSH THE THROUGH THE CWA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DRY AS
A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS IN THE FOR THE DAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN...INFLUENCING DRY WEATHER FOR REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS GRADUALLY WARMING FROM AROUND 50 ON
MONDAY NIGHT TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 201744
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1244 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE MID-STATE
JUST AFT 12Z SUN. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE
ALTHOUGH SHWRS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE 13-18Z SUN
WINDOW. THESE SHOWER LIKELY TO BE ISO/SCT IN NATURE SO WILL
INCLUDE AS VCNTY AT THIS TIME. CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY
LARGELY TO REMAIN VFR ALTHOUGH VCNTY PCPN COULD BRIEFLY LOWER.
W/NW WIND EARLY SUN EXPECTED TO INCREASE 10-20MPH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

SOME LIGHT BR MAY AFFECT CKV BRIEFLY EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED WITH
SOUTH WINDS 5-10 KTS. PRECIP WILL APPROACH CKV BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD BUT SHOULD NOT CAUSE IMPACTS UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...AND AROUND 80 FOR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE A SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...KEEPING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR
THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO WARM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THOSE
AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL AFTER NOON.
WILL SEE SLIGHTLY MORE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE AFTERNOON FROPA AND
DAYTIME HEATING. STILL NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER...JUST GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND 8AM AND PUSH THE THROUGH THE CWA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DRY AS
A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS IN THE FOR THE DAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN...INFLUENCING DRY WEATHER FOR REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS GRADUALLY WARMING FROM AROUND 50 ON
MONDAY NIGHT TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMRX 201731
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
130 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SCATTERED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT OVER THE MID WEST...WHICH SHOULD SPREAD HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT. THUS...WILL NOT MENTION ANY
FOG IN THE TAFS OVERNIGHT. AS THIS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE TAF SITES AFTER SUNRISE. HOWEVER...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL AFTER
THE TAF PERIOD. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 201731
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
130 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SCATTERED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT OVER THE MID WEST...WHICH SHOULD SPREAD HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT. THUS...WILL NOT MENTION ANY
FOG IN THE TAFS OVERNIGHT. AS THIS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE TAF SITES AFTER SUNRISE. HOWEVER...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL AFTER
THE TAF PERIOD. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG



000
FXUS64 KMEG 201707 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1207 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 1004 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S. A VERY NICE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE
MENTION OF EARLY MORNING FOG.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH TODAY BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. OVERALL SHEAR
SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING
AND CLEAR THE GULF COAST STATES BY MONDAY EVENING. CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
AND BRING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. PLEASANT EARLY FALL
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BY WEEKS END.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (20/18Z-21/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
S-SW 7 KTS. WINDS TONIGHT SW 5 KTS OR LESS. WINDS SUNDAY MORNING
BECOMING WESTERLY 6-8 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 201707 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1207 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 1004 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S. A VERY NICE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE
MENTION OF EARLY MORNING FOG.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH TODAY BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. OVERALL SHEAR
SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING
AND CLEAR THE GULF COAST STATES BY MONDAY EVENING. CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
AND BRING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. PLEASANT EARLY FALL
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BY WEEKS END.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (20/18Z-21/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
S-SW 7 KTS. WINDS TONIGHT SW 5 KTS OR LESS. WINDS SUNDAY MORNING
BECOMING WESTERLY 6-8 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 201504
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1004 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S. A VERY NICE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE
MENTION OF EARLY MORNING FOG.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH TODAY BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. OVERALL SHEAR
SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING
AND CLEAR THE GULF COAST STATES BY MONDAY EVENING. CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
AND BRING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. PLEASANT EARLY FALL
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BY WEEKS END.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT JBR THROUGH 20/13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO S/SSW WINDS BETWEEN 6-8 KTS TODAY
THEN BECOME LIGHT AFTER 21/00Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 201504
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1004 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S. A VERY NICE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE
MENTION OF EARLY MORNING FOG.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH TODAY BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. OVERALL SHEAR
SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING
AND CLEAR THE GULF COAST STATES BY MONDAY EVENING. CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
AND BRING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. PLEASANT EARLY FALL
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BY WEEKS END.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT JBR THROUGH 20/13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO S/SSW WINDS BETWEEN 6-8 KTS TODAY
THEN BECOME LIGHT AFTER 21/00Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMRX 201350
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
950 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND TODAY.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...BUT
WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE SOME MORNING FOG WORDING.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             86  61  82  59 /   0   0  40  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  84  61  80  56 /   0   0  40  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       85  60  80  56 /   0   0  40  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              83  53  78  52 /   0   0  40  30
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 201350
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
950 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND TODAY.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...BUT
WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE SOME MORNING FOG WORDING.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             86  61  82  59 /   0   0  40  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  84  61  80  56 /   0   0  40  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       85  60  80  56 /   0   0  40  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              83  53  78  52 /   0   0  40  30
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 201350
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
950 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND TODAY.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...BUT
WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE SOME MORNING FOG WORDING.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             86  61  82  59 /   0   0  40  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  84  61  80  56 /   0   0  40  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       85  60  80  56 /   0   0  40  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              83  53  78  52 /   0   0  40  30
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 201350
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
950 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND TODAY.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...BUT
WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE SOME MORNING FOG WORDING.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             86  61  82  59 /   0   0  40  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  84  61  80  56 /   0   0  40  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       85  60  80  56 /   0   0  40  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              83  53  78  52 /   0   0  40  30
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG




000
FXUS64 KMEG 201131
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
631 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH TODAY BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. OVERALL SHEAR
SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING
AND CLEAR THE GULF COAST STATES BY MONDAY EVENING. CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
AND BRING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. PLEASANT EARLY FALL
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BY WEEKS END.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT JBR THROUGH 20/13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO S/SSW WINDS BETWEEN 6-8 KTS TODAY
THEN BECOME LIGHT AFTER 21/00Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 201131
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
631 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH TODAY BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. OVERALL SHEAR
SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING
AND CLEAR THE GULF COAST STATES BY MONDAY EVENING. CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
AND BRING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. PLEASANT EARLY FALL
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BY WEEKS END.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT JBR THROUGH 20/13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO S/SSW WINDS BETWEEN 6-8 KTS TODAY
THEN BECOME LIGHT AFTER 21/00Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 201129
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
729 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AT ALL TAF SITES. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
WITH ONLY SCATTERED CU ANTICIPATED TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
LESS THE 10KTS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 201129
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
729 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AT ALL TAF SITES. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
WITH ONLY SCATTERED CU ANTICIPATED TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
LESS THE 10KTS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 201129
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
729 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AT ALL TAF SITES. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
WITH ONLY SCATTERED CU ANTICIPATED TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
LESS THE 10KTS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 201129
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
729 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AT ALL TAF SITES. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
WITH ONLY SCATTERED CU ANTICIPATED TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
LESS THE 10KTS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 201118
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
618 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME LIGHT BR MAY AFFECT CKV BRIEFLY EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED WITH
SOUTH WINDS 5-10 KTS. PRECIP WILL APPROACH CKV BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD BUT SHOULD NOT CAUSE IMPACTS UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...AND AROUND 80 FOR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE A SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...KEEPING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR
THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO WARM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THOSE
AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL AFTER NOON.
WILL SEE SLIGHTLY MORE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE AFTERNOON FROPA AND
DAYTIME HEATING. STILL NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER...JUST GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND 8AM AND PUSH THE THROUGH THE CWA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DRY AS
A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS IN THE FOR THE DAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN...INFLUENCING DRY WEATHER FOR REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS GRADUALLY WARMING FROM AROUND 50 ON
MONDAY NIGHT TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KOHX 200908
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
408 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...AND AROUND 80 FOR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE A SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...KEEPING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR
THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO WARM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THOSE
AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL AFTER NOON.
WILL SEE SLIGHTLY MORE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE AFTERNOON FROPA AND
DAYTIME HEATING. STILL NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER...JUST GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND 8AM AND PUSH THE THROUGH THE CWA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DRY AS
A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS IN THE FOR THE DAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN...INFLUENCING DRY WEATHER FOR REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS GRADUALLY WARMING FROM AROUND 50 ON
MONDAY NIGHT TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S SATURDAY MORNING.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      86  66  85  55 /  05  10  40  10
CLARKSVILLE    85  66  84  52 /  05  10  40  10
CROSSVILLE     80  62  80  53 /  05  10  50  20
COLUMBIA       86  65  87  56 /  05  10  50  10
LAWRENCEBURG   87  64  88  56 /  05  10  50  10
WAVERLY        86  65  84  53 /  05  10  40  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11





000
FXUS64 KOHX 200908
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
408 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...AND AROUND 80 FOR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE A SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...KEEPING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR
THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO WARM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THOSE
AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL AFTER NOON.
WILL SEE SLIGHTLY MORE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE AFTERNOON FROPA AND
DAYTIME HEATING. STILL NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER...JUST GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND 8AM AND PUSH THE THROUGH THE CWA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DRY AS
A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS IN THE FOR THE DAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN...INFLUENCING DRY WEATHER FOR REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS GRADUALLY WARMING FROM AROUND 50 ON
MONDAY NIGHT TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S SATURDAY MORNING.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      86  66  85  55 /  05  10  40  10
CLARKSVILLE    85  66  84  52 /  05  10  40  10
CROSSVILLE     80  62  80  53 /  05  10  50  20
COLUMBIA       86  65  87  56 /  05  10  50  10
LAWRENCEBURG   87  64  88  56 /  05  10  50  10
WAVERLY        86  65  84  53 /  05  10  40  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11






000
FXUS64 KMEG 200845
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
345 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH TODAY BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. OVERALL SHEAR
SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING
AND CLEAR THE GULF COAST STATES BY MONDAY EVENING. CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
AND BRING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. PLEASANT EARLY FALL
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BY WEEKS END.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF PERIOD

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE PERIOD ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE MVFR...IFR...AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING DUE TO FOG. AREAS OF FOG HAVE ALREADY FORMED AT
KMKL AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES GETTING
AS LOW AS 1/4 SM. FALL WILL HAVE LIFTED FROM ALL TAF SITES BY 14Z
TOMORROW. LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THE REST OF THE NIGHT GRADUALLY
TURNING TO THE SE. WINDS SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND 7 KTS BEFORE
SUBSIDING AFTER 00Z. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMKL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 200845
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
345 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH TODAY BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. OVERALL SHEAR
SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING
AND CLEAR THE GULF COAST STATES BY MONDAY EVENING. CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
AND BRING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. PLEASANT EARLY FALL
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BY WEEKS END.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF PERIOD

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE PERIOD ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE MVFR...IFR...AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING DUE TO FOG. AREAS OF FOG HAVE ALREADY FORMED AT
KMKL AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES GETTING
AS LOW AS 1/4 SM. FALL WILL HAVE LIFTED FROM ALL TAF SITES BY 14Z
TOMORROW. LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THE REST OF THE NIGHT GRADUALLY
TURNING TO THE SE. WINDS SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND 7 KTS BEFORE
SUBSIDING AFTER 00Z. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMKL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMRX 200704
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
304 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE COVERAGE OF FOG THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT. EXPECT
FOG TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO AREA LAKES AND STREAMS. FOLLOWED MOS
GUIDANCE CLOSELY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
WILL MOVE IN BETWEEN 2 AND 4 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GFS IS MUCH MORE
STABLE WITH THIS LINE MOVING IN...WITH NAM SHOWING ALMOST 2000 J/KG
CAPE VALUES. WINDS ARE UNIFORM THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH SOME
SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE NAM ALSO SHOWS DECENT DRY AIR IN THE
MIDLEVELS IN THE EARLY AFTEROON WHICH COULD ENHANCE DOWNBURST AND
WIND THREATS. THE FRONT SEEMS TO BE A BIT SEPARATE IN TIMING FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF DIVERGENCE FOR OUR
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT DUE TO THE STRONG FORCING OF THE
CONVECTION UPSTREAM...AND THE FACT THAT THE STORMS NOW LOOK TO MOVE
IN EARLIER AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THAT DAYTIME HEATING...COULD SEE
MODERATE TO STRONG STORMS WITH A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
BE MODERATE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN US. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL QUICKLY TAKE OVER FOR
MONDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN COAST AROUND FRIDAY...WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED TOWARDS OUR AREA. COULD SEE THE CHANCE FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS IS TOO FAR OUT TO SAY WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST...NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE PRESENT
BRINGING DOWN AIR FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             86  61  82  59 /   0   0  40  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  85  61  80  56 /   0   0  40  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       86  60  80  56 /   0   0  40  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              83  53  78  52 /   0   0  40  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 200704
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
304 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE COVERAGE OF FOG THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT. EXPECT
FOG TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO AREA LAKES AND STREAMS. FOLLOWED MOS
GUIDANCE CLOSELY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
WILL MOVE IN BETWEEN 2 AND 4 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GFS IS MUCH MORE
STABLE WITH THIS LINE MOVING IN...WITH NAM SHOWING ALMOST 2000 J/KG
CAPE VALUES. WINDS ARE UNIFORM THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH SOME
SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE NAM ALSO SHOWS DECENT DRY AIR IN THE
MIDLEVELS IN THE EARLY AFTEROON WHICH COULD ENHANCE DOWNBURST AND
WIND THREATS. THE FRONT SEEMS TO BE A BIT SEPARATE IN TIMING FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF DIVERGENCE FOR OUR
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT DUE TO THE STRONG FORCING OF THE
CONVECTION UPSTREAM...AND THE FACT THAT THE STORMS NOW LOOK TO MOVE
IN EARLIER AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THAT DAYTIME HEATING...COULD SEE
MODERATE TO STRONG STORMS WITH A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
BE MODERATE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN US. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL QUICKLY TAKE OVER FOR
MONDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN COAST AROUND FRIDAY...WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED TOWARDS OUR AREA. COULD SEE THE CHANCE FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS IS TOO FAR OUT TO SAY WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST...NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE PRESENT
BRINGING DOWN AIR FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             86  61  82  59 /   0   0  40  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  85  61  80  56 /   0   0  40  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       86  60  80  56 /   0   0  40  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              83  53  78  52 /   0   0  40  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 200537
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
137 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KTRI WHERE MVFR
FOG IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 10-13Z. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 200452
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1152 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE
MIDSOUTH. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIFT BY 14Z TOMORROW MORNING.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO ONLY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. AS THE HIGH MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND SO TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES. BY WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH
NEXT FRIDAY.

ARS

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF PERIOD

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE PERIOD ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE MVFR...IFR...AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING DUE TO FOG. AREAS OF FOG HAVE ALREADY FORMED AT
KMKL AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES GETTING
AS LOW AS 1/4 SM. FALL WILL HAVE LIFTED FROM ALL TAF SITES BY 14Z
TOMORROW. LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THE REST OF THE NIGHT GRADUALLY
TURNING TO THE SE. WINDS SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND 7 KTS BEFORE
SUBSIDING AFTER 00Z. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMKL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 200442
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1142 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP NICE WX OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT SSE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH SOME MVFR BR AT
CSV AROUND DAYBREAK. SATURDAY WILL BRING S WINDS 5-9KT AND FEW-
SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 814 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

UPDATE...
CURRENT TEMP TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE IN LINE WITH FORECASTED LOW
VALUES. MAY BE MAKING SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HERE OR THERE FOR
HRLY GRID VALUES OF TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS AS THE EVENING HRS
PROGRESS AND WILL UPDATE THE AFM/PFM PRODUCTS ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE...AS ILLUSTRATED BY 00Z SAT KOHX SOUNDING PROFILE AND
SUPPORTED BY REGIONAL SATELLITE...RADAR...SFC OBS...AND CONSENSUS
OF SHORT RANGE MODEL TRENDS...AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE AND
ASSOCIATED REASONING REMAINS ON TRACK.

31


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS
AFTERNOON, AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD PRODUCED A WARM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR SATURDAY, BEFORE A
COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM PRETTY NICELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
ONE HALF OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TRENDED
POPS ON SUNDAY LOWER IN THE NORTHWEST, WHERE FRONT SHOULD SWEEP
THROUGH BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z, AND HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS WHERE THEY WILL GET THE ADVANTAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL WARMING AS A
THUNDERSTORM TRIGGER.

AFTER OUR BRIEF WEEKEND WARM-UP AND CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY,
THINGS TREND BACK TOWARD MORE AUTUMN-LIKE DRY AND COOLISH CONDITIONS.
LOWS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S.

LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA MID-TO-
LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S. MEANWHILE, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 200442
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1142 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP NICE WX OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT SSE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH SOME MVFR BR AT
CSV AROUND DAYBREAK. SATURDAY WILL BRING S WINDS 5-9KT AND FEW-
SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 814 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

UPDATE...
CURRENT TEMP TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE IN LINE WITH FORECASTED LOW
VALUES. MAY BE MAKING SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HERE OR THERE FOR
HRLY GRID VALUES OF TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS AS THE EVENING HRS
PROGRESS AND WILL UPDATE THE AFM/PFM PRODUCTS ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE...AS ILLUSTRATED BY 00Z SAT KOHX SOUNDING PROFILE AND
SUPPORTED BY REGIONAL SATELLITE...RADAR...SFC OBS...AND CONSENSUS
OF SHORT RANGE MODEL TRENDS...AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE AND
ASSOCIATED REASONING REMAINS ON TRACK.

31


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS
AFTERNOON, AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD PRODUCED A WARM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR SATURDAY, BEFORE A
COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM PRETTY NICELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
ONE HALF OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TRENDED
POPS ON SUNDAY LOWER IN THE NORTHWEST, WHERE FRONT SHOULD SWEEP
THROUGH BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z, AND HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS WHERE THEY WILL GET THE ADVANTAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL WARMING AS A
THUNDERSTORM TRIGGER.

AFTER OUR BRIEF WEEKEND WARM-UP AND CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY,
THINGS TREND BACK TOWARD MORE AUTUMN-LIKE DRY AND COOLISH CONDITIONS.
LOWS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S.

LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA MID-TO-
LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S. MEANWHILE, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 200442
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1142 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP NICE WX OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT SSE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH SOME MVFR BR AT
CSV AROUND DAYBREAK. SATURDAY WILL BRING S WINDS 5-9KT AND FEW-
SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 814 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

UPDATE...
CURRENT TEMP TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE IN LINE WITH FORECASTED LOW
VALUES. MAY BE MAKING SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HERE OR THERE FOR
HRLY GRID VALUES OF TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS AS THE EVENING HRS
PROGRESS AND WILL UPDATE THE AFM/PFM PRODUCTS ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE...AS ILLUSTRATED BY 00Z SAT KOHX SOUNDING PROFILE AND
SUPPORTED BY REGIONAL SATELLITE...RADAR...SFC OBS...AND CONSENSUS
OF SHORT RANGE MODEL TRENDS...AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE AND
ASSOCIATED REASONING REMAINS ON TRACK.

31


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS
AFTERNOON, AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD PRODUCED A WARM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR SATURDAY, BEFORE A
COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM PRETTY NICELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
ONE HALF OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TRENDED
POPS ON SUNDAY LOWER IN THE NORTHWEST, WHERE FRONT SHOULD SWEEP
THROUGH BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z, AND HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS WHERE THEY WILL GET THE ADVANTAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL WARMING AS A
THUNDERSTORM TRIGGER.

AFTER OUR BRIEF WEEKEND WARM-UP AND CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY,
THINGS TREND BACK TOWARD MORE AUTUMN-LIKE DRY AND COOLISH CONDITIONS.
LOWS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S.

LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA MID-TO-
LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S. MEANWHILE, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 200442
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1142 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP NICE WX OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT SSE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH SOME MVFR BR AT
CSV AROUND DAYBREAK. SATURDAY WILL BRING S WINDS 5-9KT AND FEW-
SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 814 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

UPDATE...
CURRENT TEMP TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE IN LINE WITH FORECASTED LOW
VALUES. MAY BE MAKING SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HERE OR THERE FOR
HRLY GRID VALUES OF TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS AS THE EVENING HRS
PROGRESS AND WILL UPDATE THE AFM/PFM PRODUCTS ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE...AS ILLUSTRATED BY 00Z SAT KOHX SOUNDING PROFILE AND
SUPPORTED BY REGIONAL SATELLITE...RADAR...SFC OBS...AND CONSENSUS
OF SHORT RANGE MODEL TRENDS...AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE AND
ASSOCIATED REASONING REMAINS ON TRACK.

31


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS
AFTERNOON, AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD PRODUCED A WARM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR SATURDAY, BEFORE A
COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM PRETTY NICELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
ONE HALF OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TRENDED
POPS ON SUNDAY LOWER IN THE NORTHWEST, WHERE FRONT SHOULD SWEEP
THROUGH BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z, AND HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS WHERE THEY WILL GET THE ADVANTAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL WARMING AS A
THUNDERSTORM TRIGGER.

AFTER OUR BRIEF WEEKEND WARM-UP AND CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY,
THINGS TREND BACK TOWARD MORE AUTUMN-LIKE DRY AND COOLISH CONDITIONS.
LOWS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S.

LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA MID-TO-
LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S. MEANWHILE, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 200153
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
853 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE
MIDSOUTH. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIFT BY 14Z TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO ONLY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. AS THE HIGH MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND SO TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES. BY WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH
NEXT FRIDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF PERIOD

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG FORMING
LATE TONIGHT WITH KMKL AND KTUP POSSIBLY IFR...KMEM AND KJBR
POSSIBLY MVFR. ANY FOG THAT MAY FORM WILL LIFT BY 14Z TOMORROW.  LIGHT
WINDS WILL OCCUR THE REST OF THIS EVEVING THROUGH TONIGHT GRADUALLY
TURNING TO THE SE. WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE SOUTHERLY
AROUND 7 KTS.

JPM3

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 200153
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
853 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE
MIDSOUTH. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIFT BY 14Z TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO ONLY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. AS THE HIGH MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND SO TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES. BY WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH
NEXT FRIDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF PERIOD

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG FORMING
LATE TONIGHT WITH KMKL AND KTUP POSSIBLY IFR...KMEM AND KJBR
POSSIBLY MVFR. ANY FOG THAT MAY FORM WILL LIFT BY 14Z TOMORROW.  LIGHT
WINDS WILL OCCUR THE REST OF THIS EVEVING THROUGH TONIGHT GRADUALLY
TURNING TO THE SE. WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE SOUTHERLY
AROUND 7 KTS.

JPM3

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 200153
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
853 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE
MIDSOUTH. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIFT BY 14Z TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO ONLY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. AS THE HIGH MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND SO TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES. BY WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH
NEXT FRIDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF PERIOD

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG FORMING
LATE TONIGHT WITH KMKL AND KTUP POSSIBLY IFR...KMEM AND KJBR
POSSIBLY MVFR. ANY FOG THAT MAY FORM WILL LIFT BY 14Z TOMORROW.  LIGHT
WINDS WILL OCCUR THE REST OF THIS EVEVING THROUGH TONIGHT GRADUALLY
TURNING TO THE SE. WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE SOUTHERLY
AROUND 7 KTS.

JPM3

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 200153
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
853 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE
MIDSOUTH. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIFT BY 14Z TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO ONLY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. AS THE HIGH MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND SO TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES. BY WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH
NEXT FRIDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF PERIOD

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG FORMING
LATE TONIGHT WITH KMKL AND KTUP POSSIBLY IFR...KMEM AND KJBR
POSSIBLY MVFR. ANY FOG THAT MAY FORM WILL LIFT BY 14Z TOMORROW.  LIGHT
WINDS WILL OCCUR THE REST OF THIS EVEVING THROUGH TONIGHT GRADUALLY
TURNING TO THE SE. WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE SOUTHERLY
AROUND 7 KTS.

JPM3

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 200114 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
814 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
CURRENT TEMP TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE IN LINE WITH FORECASTED LOW
VALUES. MAY BE MAKING SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HERE OR THERE FOR
HRLY GRID VALUES OF TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS AS THE EVENING HRS
PROGRESS AND WILL UPDATE THE AFM/PFM PRODUCTS ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE...AS ILLUSTRATED BY 00Z SAT KOHX SOUNDING PROFILE AND
SUPPORTED BY REGIONAL SATELLITE...RADAR...SFC OBS...AND CONSENSUS
OF SHORT RANGE MODEL TRENDS...AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE AND
ASSOCIATED REASONING REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 632 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP NICE WX OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR TONIGHT...SKC AND LIGHT SSE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH SOME
MVFR BR AT CSV AROUND DAYBREAK. SATURDAY WILL BRING S WINDS 5-8KT
AND FEW-SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS
AFTERNOON, AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD PRODUCED A WARM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR SATURDAY, BEFORE A
COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM PRETTY NICELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
ONE HALF OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TRENDED
POPS ON SUNDAY LOWER IN THE NORTHWEST, WHERE FRONT SHOULD SWEEP
THROUGH BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z, AND HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS WHERE THEY WILL GET THE ADVANTAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL WARMING AS A
THUNDERSTORM TRIGGER.

AFTER OUR BRIEF WEEKEND WARM-UP AND CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY,
THINGS TREND BACK TOWARD MORE AUTUMN-LIKE DRY AND COOLISH CONDITIONS.
LOWS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S.

LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA MID-TO-
LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S. MEANWHILE, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 200114 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
814 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
CURRENT TEMP TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE IN LINE WITH FORECASTED LOW
VALUES. MAY BE MAKING SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HERE OR THERE FOR
HRLY GRID VALUES OF TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS AS THE EVENING HRS
PROGRESS AND WILL UPDATE THE AFM/PFM PRODUCTS ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE...AS ILLUSTRATED BY 00Z SAT KOHX SOUNDING PROFILE AND
SUPPORTED BY REGIONAL SATELLITE...RADAR...SFC OBS...AND CONSENSUS
OF SHORT RANGE MODEL TRENDS...AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE AND
ASSOCIATED REASONING REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 632 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP NICE WX OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR TONIGHT...SKC AND LIGHT SSE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH SOME
MVFR BR AT CSV AROUND DAYBREAK. SATURDAY WILL BRING S WINDS 5-8KT
AND FEW-SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS
AFTERNOON, AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD PRODUCED A WARM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR SATURDAY, BEFORE A
COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM PRETTY NICELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
ONE HALF OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TRENDED
POPS ON SUNDAY LOWER IN THE NORTHWEST, WHERE FRONT SHOULD SWEEP
THROUGH BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z, AND HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS WHERE THEY WILL GET THE ADVANTAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL WARMING AS A
THUNDERSTORM TRIGGER.

AFTER OUR BRIEF WEEKEND WARM-UP AND CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY,
THINGS TREND BACK TOWARD MORE AUTUMN-LIKE DRY AND COOLISH CONDITIONS.
LOWS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S.

LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA MID-TO-
LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S. MEANWHILE, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KMRX 200051 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
851 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY DIMINISHED WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
NOSE ITS WAY IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR...CALM AND DRY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. STILL...SOME LOW-
LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED FOG-PRONE
AREAS AND NEAR LAKES/RIVERS. THE CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS NE TN/SW VA AND THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             63  83  62  83 /  10   0   0  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  61  81  62  81 /   0   0   0  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       60  81  60  81 /   0   0   0  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              55  79  56  79 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMEG 192344
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
644 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO ONLY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. AS THE HIGH MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND SO TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES. BY WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH
NEXT FRIDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF PERIOD

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG FORMING
LATE TONIGHT WITH KMKL AND KTUP POSSIBLY IFR...KMEM AND KJBR
POSSIBLY MVFR. ANY FOG THAT MAY FORM WILL LIFT BY 14Z TOMORROW.  LIGHT
WINDS WILL OCCUR THE REST OF THIS EVEVING THROUGH TONIGHT GRADUALLY
TURNING TO THE SE. WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE SOUTHERLY
AROUND 7 KTS.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 192344
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
644 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO ONLY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. AS THE HIGH MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND SO TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES. BY WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH
NEXT FRIDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF PERIOD

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG FORMING
LATE TONIGHT WITH KMKL AND KTUP POSSIBLY IFR...KMEM AND KJBR
POSSIBLY MVFR. ANY FOG THAT MAY FORM WILL LIFT BY 14Z TOMORROW.  LIGHT
WINDS WILL OCCUR THE REST OF THIS EVEVING THROUGH TONIGHT GRADUALLY
TURNING TO THE SE. WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE SOUTHERLY
AROUND 7 KTS.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 192332
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
632 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP NICE WX OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR TONIGHT...SKC AND LIGHT SSE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH SOME
MVFR BR AT CSV AROUND DAYBREAK. SATURDAY WILL BRING S WINDS 5-8KT
AND FEW-SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS
AFTERNOON, AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD PRODUCED A WARM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR SATURDAY, BEFORE A
COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM PRETTY NICELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
ONE HALF OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TRENDED
POPS ON SUNDAY LOWER IN THE NORTHWEST, WHERE FRONT SHOULD SWEEP
THROUGH BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z, AND HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS WHERE THEY WILL GET THE ADVANTAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL WARMING AS A
THUNDERSTORM TRIGGER.

AFTER OUR BRIEF WEEKEND WARM-UP AND CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY,
THINGS TREND BACK TOWARD MORE AUTUMN-LIKE DRY AND COOLISH CONDITIONS.
LOWS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S.

LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA MID-TO-
LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S. MEANWHILE, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 192332
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
632 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP NICE WX OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR TONIGHT...SKC AND LIGHT SSE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH SOME
MVFR BR AT CSV AROUND DAYBREAK. SATURDAY WILL BRING S WINDS 5-8KT
AND FEW-SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS
AFTERNOON, AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD PRODUCED A WARM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR SATURDAY, BEFORE A
COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM PRETTY NICELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
ONE HALF OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TRENDED
POPS ON SUNDAY LOWER IN THE NORTHWEST, WHERE FRONT SHOULD SWEEP
THROUGH BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z, AND HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS WHERE THEY WILL GET THE ADVANTAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL WARMING AS A
THUNDERSTORM TRIGGER.

AFTER OUR BRIEF WEEKEND WARM-UP AND CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY,
THINGS TREND BACK TOWARD MORE AUTUMN-LIKE DRY AND COOLISH CONDITIONS.
LOWS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S.

LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA MID-TO-
LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S. MEANWHILE, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 192329 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
629 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR TWEEKS TO HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS AND SENT OUT UPDATED
AFM/PFM PRODUCTS...OTHERWISE...FORECAST AND BELOW FORECAST REASONING CONTINUE
TO BE ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS
AFTERNOON, AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD PRODUCED A WARM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR SATURDAY, BEFORE A
COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM PRETTY NICELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
ONE HALF OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TRENDED
POPS ON SUNDAY LOWER IN THE NORTHWEST, WHERE FRONT SHOULD SWEEP
THROUGH BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z, AND HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS WHERE THEY WILL GET THE ADVANTAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL WARMING AS A
THUNDERSTORM TRIGGER.

AFTER OUR BRIEF WEEKEND WARM-UP AND CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY,
THINGS TREND BACK TOWARD MORE AUTUMN-LIKE DRY AND COOLISH CONDITIONS.
LOWS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S.

LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA MID-TO-
LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S. MEANWHILE, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 192329 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
629 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR TWEEKS TO HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS AND SENT OUT UPDATED
AFM/PFM PRODUCTS...OTHERWISE...FORECAST AND BELOW FORECAST REASONING CONTINUE
TO BE ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS
AFTERNOON, AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD PRODUCED A WARM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR SATURDAY, BEFORE A
COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM PRETTY NICELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
ONE HALF OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TRENDED
POPS ON SUNDAY LOWER IN THE NORTHWEST, WHERE FRONT SHOULD SWEEP
THROUGH BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z, AND HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS WHERE THEY WILL GET THE ADVANTAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL WARMING AS A
THUNDERSTORM TRIGGER.

AFTER OUR BRIEF WEEKEND WARM-UP AND CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY,
THINGS TREND BACK TOWARD MORE AUTUMN-LIKE DRY AND COOLISH CONDITIONS.
LOWS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S.

LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA MID-TO-
LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S. MEANWHILE, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KMRX 192323 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
723 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KTRI WHERE
SOME MVFR/IFR FOG WILL REDUCE VIS/CIGS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING AND DAY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 192323 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
723 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KTRI WHERE
SOME MVFR/IFR FOG WILL REDUCE VIS/CIGS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING AND DAY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 192323 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
723 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KTRI WHERE
SOME MVFR/IFR FOG WILL REDUCE VIS/CIGS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING AND DAY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 192323 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
723 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KTRI WHERE
SOME MVFR/IFR FOG WILL REDUCE VIS/CIGS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING AND DAY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KOHX 192019
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
319 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS
AFTERNOON, AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD PRODUCED A WARM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR SATURDAY, BEFORE A
COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM PRETTY NICELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
ONE HALF OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TRENDED
POPS ON SUNDAY LOWER IN THE NORTHWEST, WHERE FRONT SHOULD SWEEP
THROUGH BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z, AND HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS WHERE THEY WILL GET THE ADVANTAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL WARMING AS A
THUNDERSTORM TRIGGER.

AFTER OUR BRIEF WEEKEND WARM-UP AND CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY,
THINGS TREND BACK TOWARD MORE AUTUMN-LIKE DRY AND COOLISH CONDITIONS.
LOWS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S.


.LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA MID-TO-
LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S. MEANWHILE, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      64  85  65  85 /  05  05  10  40
CLARKSVILLE    62  85  65  84 /  05  05  10  40
CROSSVILLE     59  80  61  80 /  05  05  10  50
COLUMBIA       62  86  64  87 /  05  05  10  50
LAWRENCEBURG   62  87  63  87 /  05  05  10  50
WAVERLY        63  86  64  84 /  05  05  10  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KOHX 192019
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
319 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS
AFTERNOON, AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD PRODUCED A WARM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR SATURDAY, BEFORE A
COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM PRETTY NICELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
ONE HALF OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TRENDED
POPS ON SUNDAY LOWER IN THE NORTHWEST, WHERE FRONT SHOULD SWEEP
THROUGH BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z, AND HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS WHERE THEY WILL GET THE ADVANTAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL WARMING AS A
THUNDERSTORM TRIGGER.

AFTER OUR BRIEF WEEKEND WARM-UP AND CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY,
THINGS TREND BACK TOWARD MORE AUTUMN-LIKE DRY AND COOLISH CONDITIONS.
LOWS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S.


.LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA MID-TO-
LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S. MEANWHILE, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      64  85  65  85 /  05  05  10  40
CLARKSVILLE    62  85  65  84 /  05  05  10  40
CROSSVILLE     59  80  61  80 /  05  05  10  50
COLUMBIA       62  86  64  87 /  05  05  10  50
LAWRENCEBURG   62  87  63  87 /  05  05  10  50
WAVERLY        63  86  64  84 /  05  05  10  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KOHX 192019
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
319 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS
AFTERNOON, AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD PRODUCED A WARM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR SATURDAY, BEFORE A
COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM PRETTY NICELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
ONE HALF OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TRENDED
POPS ON SUNDAY LOWER IN THE NORTHWEST, WHERE FRONT SHOULD SWEEP
THROUGH BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z, AND HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS WHERE THEY WILL GET THE ADVANTAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL WARMING AS A
THUNDERSTORM TRIGGER.

AFTER OUR BRIEF WEEKEND WARM-UP AND CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY,
THINGS TREND BACK TOWARD MORE AUTUMN-LIKE DRY AND COOLISH CONDITIONS.
LOWS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S.


.LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA MID-TO-
LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S. MEANWHILE, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      64  85  65  85 /  05  05  10  40
CLARKSVILLE    62  85  65  84 /  05  05  10  40
CROSSVILLE     59  80  61  80 /  05  05  10  50
COLUMBIA       62  86  64  87 /  05  05  10  50
LAWRENCEBURG   62  87  63  87 /  05  05  10  50
WAVERLY        63  86  64  84 /  05  05  10  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KOHX 192019
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
319 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS
AFTERNOON, AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD PRODUCED A WARM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR SATURDAY, BEFORE A
COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM PRETTY NICELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
ONE HALF OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TRENDED
POPS ON SUNDAY LOWER IN THE NORTHWEST, WHERE FRONT SHOULD SWEEP
THROUGH BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z, AND HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS WHERE THEY WILL GET THE ADVANTAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL WARMING AS A
THUNDERSTORM TRIGGER.

AFTER OUR BRIEF WEEKEND WARM-UP AND CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY,
THINGS TREND BACK TOWARD MORE AUTUMN-LIKE DRY AND COOLISH CONDITIONS.
LOWS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S.


.LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA MID-TO-
LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S. MEANWHILE, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      64  85  65  85 /  05  05  10  40
CLARKSVILLE    62  85  65  84 /  05  05  10  40
CROSSVILLE     59  80  61  80 /  05  05  10  50
COLUMBIA       62  86  64  87 /  05  05  10  50
LAWRENCEBURG   62  87  63  87 /  05  05  10  50
WAVERLY        63  86  64  84 /  05  05  10  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KMEG 192003
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
303 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO ONLY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. AS THE HIGH MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND SO TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES. BY WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH
NEXT FRIDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF (19/18Z-20/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG FORMING
LATE TONIGHT WITH KMKL AND KTUP POSSIBLY IFR...KMEM AND KJBR
POSSIBLY MVFR. LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT GRADUALLY TURNING TO
THE SE. WINDS SATURDAY MORNING SOUTHERLY AROUND 7 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 192003
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
303 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO ONLY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. AS THE HIGH MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND SO TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES. BY WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH
NEXT FRIDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF (19/18Z-20/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG FORMING
LATE TONIGHT WITH KMKL AND KTUP POSSIBLY IFR...KMEM AND KJBR
POSSIBLY MVFR. LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT GRADUALLY TURNING TO
THE SE. WINDS SATURDAY MORNING SOUTHERLY AROUND 7 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMRX 191855
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
255 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST...WHICH
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.
THIS HIGH WILL BRING DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AROUND THE WATERWAYS. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS
AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MINS FOR
TONIGHT...BUT WILL TREND CLOSER TO THE COOLER NAM NUMBERS WHICH HAVE
VERIFIED BETTER LATELY. ALSO...WILL TREND COOLER THAN BOTH SETS OF
GUIDANCE WITH MAXES ON SATURDAY (WHICH HAS BEEN THE TREND LATELY).

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...COLD FRONT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY EVENING THEN PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.

SATURDAY NIGHT WE HAVE AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO OUR NW. CONDITIONS OVER OUR AREA WILL
REMAINING CALM WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL. THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY SHOULD BE NICE
BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NW TO SE DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CURRENT NAM AND GFS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TIMING AND SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL ARRIVE ON THE PLATEAU BETWEEN 19 TO 21Z AND THEN SPREAD
INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY BY AROUND 00Z. THE NAM AND GFS DO DIFFER ON
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY HOWEVER. AT 00Z SUNDAY THE NAM SHOWS 1500
TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE GFS ONLY SHOWS 500 TO
1000 J/KG. OBVIOUSLY IF THE NAM IS CORRECT THEN WE COULD SEE A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONGEST STORMS THOUGH SHOULD
STAY TO OUR NORTH WHERE THE BEST SHEAR IS...AS THERE IS A TIGHT
SHEAR GRADIENT ALONG THE KY/TN STATE LINE. NONETHELESS...IF WE DO
HAVE THE INSTABILITY THAT THE NAM SUGGESTS THEN A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD DRIFT DOWN OUT OF KY INTO TN.

AFTER SUNDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION THE REST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY.
SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT SKIES
SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS
IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS SW VA/NE TN...MID 70S CENTRAL VALLEY...AND
UPPER 70S SOUTHERN VALLEY ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH PUSHES FURTHER NE
ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. MOISTURE LOOKS TO RETURN BY
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SW NC BUT KEPT
PRECIP OUT FOR NOW. OVERALL...IT SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT EXTENDED
PERIOD AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             63  83  62  83 /   0   0   0  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  61  81  62  81 /   0   0   0  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       60  81  60  81 /   0   0   0  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              55  79  56  79 /   0   0   0  30
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/SR



000
FXUS64 KMRX 191855
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
255 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST...WHICH
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.
THIS HIGH WILL BRING DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AROUND THE WATERWAYS. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS
AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MINS FOR
TONIGHT...BUT WILL TREND CLOSER TO THE COOLER NAM NUMBERS WHICH HAVE
VERIFIED BETTER LATELY. ALSO...WILL TREND COOLER THAN BOTH SETS OF
GUIDANCE WITH MAXES ON SATURDAY (WHICH HAS BEEN THE TREND LATELY).

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...COLD FRONT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY EVENING THEN PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.

SATURDAY NIGHT WE HAVE AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO OUR NW. CONDITIONS OVER OUR AREA WILL
REMAINING CALM WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL. THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY SHOULD BE NICE
BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NW TO SE DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CURRENT NAM AND GFS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TIMING AND SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL ARRIVE ON THE PLATEAU BETWEEN 19 TO 21Z AND THEN SPREAD
INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY BY AROUND 00Z. THE NAM AND GFS DO DIFFER ON
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY HOWEVER. AT 00Z SUNDAY THE NAM SHOWS 1500
TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE GFS ONLY SHOWS 500 TO
1000 J/KG. OBVIOUSLY IF THE NAM IS CORRECT THEN WE COULD SEE A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONGEST STORMS THOUGH SHOULD
STAY TO OUR NORTH WHERE THE BEST SHEAR IS...AS THERE IS A TIGHT
SHEAR GRADIENT ALONG THE KY/TN STATE LINE. NONETHELESS...IF WE DO
HAVE THE INSTABILITY THAT THE NAM SUGGESTS THEN A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD DRIFT DOWN OUT OF KY INTO TN.

AFTER SUNDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION THE REST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY.
SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT SKIES
SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS
IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS SW VA/NE TN...MID 70S CENTRAL VALLEY...AND
UPPER 70S SOUTHERN VALLEY ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH PUSHES FURTHER NE
ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. MOISTURE LOOKS TO RETURN BY
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SW NC BUT KEPT
PRECIP OUT FOR NOW. OVERALL...IT SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT EXTENDED
PERIOD AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             63  83  62  83 /   0   0   0  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  61  81  62  81 /   0   0   0  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       60  81  60  81 /   0   0   0  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              55  79  56  79 /   0   0   0  30
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/SR



000
FXUS64 KMRX 191855
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
255 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST...WHICH
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.
THIS HIGH WILL BRING DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AROUND THE WATERWAYS. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS
AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MINS FOR
TONIGHT...BUT WILL TREND CLOSER TO THE COOLER NAM NUMBERS WHICH HAVE
VERIFIED BETTER LATELY. ALSO...WILL TREND COOLER THAN BOTH SETS OF
GUIDANCE WITH MAXES ON SATURDAY (WHICH HAS BEEN THE TREND LATELY).

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...COLD FRONT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY EVENING THEN PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.

SATURDAY NIGHT WE HAVE AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO OUR NW. CONDITIONS OVER OUR AREA WILL
REMAINING CALM WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL. THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY SHOULD BE NICE
BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NW TO SE DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CURRENT NAM AND GFS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TIMING AND SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL ARRIVE ON THE PLATEAU BETWEEN 19 TO 21Z AND THEN SPREAD
INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY BY AROUND 00Z. THE NAM AND GFS DO DIFFER ON
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY HOWEVER. AT 00Z SUNDAY THE NAM SHOWS 1500
TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE GFS ONLY SHOWS 500 TO
1000 J/KG. OBVIOUSLY IF THE NAM IS CORRECT THEN WE COULD SEE A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONGEST STORMS THOUGH SHOULD
STAY TO OUR NORTH WHERE THE BEST SHEAR IS...AS THERE IS A TIGHT
SHEAR GRADIENT ALONG THE KY/TN STATE LINE. NONETHELESS...IF WE DO
HAVE THE INSTABILITY THAT THE NAM SUGGESTS THEN A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD DRIFT DOWN OUT OF KY INTO TN.

AFTER SUNDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION THE REST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY.
SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT SKIES
SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS
IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS SW VA/NE TN...MID 70S CENTRAL VALLEY...AND
UPPER 70S SOUTHERN VALLEY ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH PUSHES FURTHER NE
ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. MOISTURE LOOKS TO RETURN BY
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SW NC BUT KEPT
PRECIP OUT FOR NOW. OVERALL...IT SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT EXTENDED
PERIOD AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             63  83  62  83 /   0   0   0  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  61  81  62  81 /   0   0   0  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       60  81  60  81 /   0   0   0  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              55  79  56  79 /   0   0   0  30
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/SR



000
FXUS64 KMRX 191855
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
255 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST...WHICH
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.
THIS HIGH WILL BRING DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AROUND THE WATERWAYS. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS
AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MINS FOR
TONIGHT...BUT WILL TREND CLOSER TO THE COOLER NAM NUMBERS WHICH HAVE
VERIFIED BETTER LATELY. ALSO...WILL TREND COOLER THAN BOTH SETS OF
GUIDANCE WITH MAXES ON SATURDAY (WHICH HAS BEEN THE TREND LATELY).

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...COLD FRONT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY EVENING THEN PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.

SATURDAY NIGHT WE HAVE AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO OUR NW. CONDITIONS OVER OUR AREA WILL
REMAINING CALM WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL. THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY SHOULD BE NICE
BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NW TO SE DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CURRENT NAM AND GFS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TIMING AND SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL ARRIVE ON THE PLATEAU BETWEEN 19 TO 21Z AND THEN SPREAD
INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY BY AROUND 00Z. THE NAM AND GFS DO DIFFER ON
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY HOWEVER. AT 00Z SUNDAY THE NAM SHOWS 1500
TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE GFS ONLY SHOWS 500 TO
1000 J/KG. OBVIOUSLY IF THE NAM IS CORRECT THEN WE COULD SEE A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONGEST STORMS THOUGH SHOULD
STAY TO OUR NORTH WHERE THE BEST SHEAR IS...AS THERE IS A TIGHT
SHEAR GRADIENT ALONG THE KY/TN STATE LINE. NONETHELESS...IF WE DO
HAVE THE INSTABILITY THAT THE NAM SUGGESTS THEN A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD DRIFT DOWN OUT OF KY INTO TN.

AFTER SUNDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION THE REST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY.
SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT SKIES
SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS
IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS SW VA/NE TN...MID 70S CENTRAL VALLEY...AND
UPPER 70S SOUTHERN VALLEY ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH PUSHES FURTHER NE
ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. MOISTURE LOOKS TO RETURN BY
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SW NC BUT KEPT
PRECIP OUT FOR NOW. OVERALL...IT SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT EXTENDED
PERIOD AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             63  83  62  83 /   0   0   0  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  61  81  62  81 /   0   0   0  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       60  81  60  81 /   0   0   0  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              55  79  56  79 /   0   0   0  30
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/SR



000
FXUS64 KMEG 191725 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1225 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 924 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
DENSE FOG HAS ENDED OVER THE REGION AND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL BE FOUND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF DENSE
FOG ADVISORY.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
SOUTH FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. THE GREATEST
CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. THIS
POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI WHERE
CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE WITH MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS AND A
DECOUPLED ATMOSPHERE. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF VISIBILITIES LOWER FURTHER. ANY FOG SHOULD
MIX OUT BY MID MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID SOUTH INTO
SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE BUT AS WINDS TURN BACK
FROM THE SOUTH EXPECT WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A RETURN TO DRY...COOLER...AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THIS
PLEASANT WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF (19/18Z-20/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG FORMING
LATE TONIGHT WITH KMKL AND KTUP POSSIBLY IFR...KMEM AND KJBR
POSSIBLY MVFR. LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT GRADUALLY TURNING TO
THE SE. WINDS SATURDAY MORNING SOUTHERLY AROUND 7 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 191725 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1225 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 924 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
DENSE FOG HAS ENDED OVER THE REGION AND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL BE FOUND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF DENSE
FOG ADVISORY.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
SOUTH FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. THE GREATEST
CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. THIS
POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI WHERE
CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE WITH MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS AND A
DECOUPLED ATMOSPHERE. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF VISIBILITIES LOWER FURTHER. ANY FOG SHOULD
MIX OUT BY MID MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID SOUTH INTO
SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE BUT AS WINDS TURN BACK
FROM THE SOUTH EXPECT WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A RETURN TO DRY...COOLER...AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THIS
PLEASANT WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF (19/18Z-20/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG FORMING
LATE TONIGHT WITH KMKL AND KTUP POSSIBLY IFR...KMEM AND KJBR
POSSIBLY MVFR. LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT GRADUALLY TURNING TO
THE SE. WINDS SATURDAY MORNING SOUTHERLY AROUND 7 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 191719
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
120 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST...WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS MOST OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE CAROLINAS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS
THE TAF SITES. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KTRI AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHEN SOME FOG WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG




000
FXUS64 KOHX 191626
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1126 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE
NEXT 24 HRS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WIND THRU TONIGHT, INCREASING
TOMORROW. PERHAPS SOME LIGHT FOG AT CSV EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,
OTHERWISE VFR WX THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

VFR. SCT LOW CLOUDS 4-5K FT EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BY AFTERNOON. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AFTER A PLEASANTLY COOL AND MOSTLY DRY DAY YESTERDAY,
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 60 DEGREES SO FAR WITH A FEW
PASSING CLOUDS ACROSS MIDDLE TN. EXPECT ANOTHER FAIR DAY TODAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
WITH CLEARER SKIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
AS DRIER AIR SINKS SOUTHWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A GENTLE SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

THE MAIN EVENT FOR THE WEEK AHEAD WILL BE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW THE BEST
TIMING FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO BE AROUND 7AM OR JUST AFTER FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WITH NASHVILLE SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS
AROUND NOON AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. NO
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE BULK OF THE STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
MUCH FARTHER NORTH...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT WILL BE
TREKKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. ONLY EXPECTING A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVING EAST. THIS WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN WE`LL WARM INTO THE
LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DIDN`T STRAY MUCH FROM
MOS TEMPS IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 191626
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1126 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE
NEXT 24 HRS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WIND THRU TONIGHT, INCREASING
TOMORROW. PERHAPS SOME LIGHT FOG AT CSV EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,
OTHERWISE VFR WX THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

VFR. SCT LOW CLOUDS 4-5K FT EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BY AFTERNOON. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AFTER A PLEASANTLY COOL AND MOSTLY DRY DAY YESTERDAY,
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 60 DEGREES SO FAR WITH A FEW
PASSING CLOUDS ACROSS MIDDLE TN. EXPECT ANOTHER FAIR DAY TODAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
WITH CLEARER SKIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
AS DRIER AIR SINKS SOUTHWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A GENTLE SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

THE MAIN EVENT FOR THE WEEK AHEAD WILL BE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW THE BEST
TIMING FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO BE AROUND 7AM OR JUST AFTER FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WITH NASHVILLE SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS
AROUND NOON AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. NO
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE BULK OF THE STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
MUCH FARTHER NORTH...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT WILL BE
TREKKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. ONLY EXPECTING A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVING EAST. THIS WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN WE`LL WARM INTO THE
LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DIDN`T STRAY MUCH FROM
MOS TEMPS IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




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