Home > Products > State Listing > Tennessee Data
Latest:
 AFDMEG |  AFDOHX |  AFDMRX |
  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOHX 051855 AAE
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1255 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE WINTER STORM WARNING WORDING FROM ZONE FORECAST
PRODUCT. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...WIND
SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS TOO. SOME LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING FLURRIES...
AND THUS MENTIONED SCATTERED FLURRIES THRU REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON
HOURS. OTHERWISE FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1111 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...WINTER STORM CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED...AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SIT
DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOR CKV AND
BNA...MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN VFR WILL
PREVAIL AFTER 20Z. N WINDS AROUND 10KT WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT.
FOR CSV...MVFR CIGS WITH OCNL IFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LATE NIGHT BR IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT NOT VERY CONFIDENT SO NOT INCLUDING IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED WSW TO REMOVE NW COUNTIES AND TO REFRESHEN ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING HOURS. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITIONS...
AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 543 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...SNOW COVER...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL PRODUCE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT. OVER NORTHWESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS THOSE WIND CHILLS WILL BE AROUND MINUS
FIVE, AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT PART OF
THE MID STATE. ELSEWHERE....WIND CHILLS BETWEEN ZERO AND 5 DEGREES
WILL BE COMMON.

31

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
TNZ005>009-023>029.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 051855 AAE
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1255 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE WINTER STORM WARNING WORDING FROM ZONE FORECAST
PRODUCT. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...WIND
SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS TOO. SOME LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING FLURRIES...
AND THUS MENTIONED SCATTERED FLURRIES THRU REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON
HOURS. OTHERWISE FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1111 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...WINTER STORM CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED...AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SIT
DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOR CKV AND
BNA...MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN VFR WILL
PREVAIL AFTER 20Z. N WINDS AROUND 10KT WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT.
FOR CSV...MVFR CIGS WITH OCNL IFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LATE NIGHT BR IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT NOT VERY CONFIDENT SO NOT INCLUDING IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED WSW TO REMOVE NW COUNTIES AND TO REFRESHEN ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING HOURS. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITIONS...
AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 543 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...SNOW COVER...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL PRODUCE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT. OVER NORTHWESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS THOSE WIND CHILLS WILL BE AROUND MINUS
FIVE, AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT PART OF
THE MID STATE. ELSEWHERE....WIND CHILLS BETWEEN ZERO AND 5 DEGREES
WILL BE COMMON.

31

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
TNZ005>009-023>029.
&&
$$
31





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMEG 051739
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1139 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...

LATEST RADAR SHOWS ALL SNOW BANDS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE
MIDSOUTH. THUS HAVE CANCELED ALL REMAINING WINTER STORM WARNINGS.
SOME FLURRIES COULD STILL OCCUR AROUND MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR.
HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS SLIGHTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS AND
THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA AS MARCH SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO AT
LEAST GET TO 30 DEGREES TODAY.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY ALL THE PRECIPITATION ON RADAR WAS OF A WINTER
TYPE...WITH SCATTERED AREAS RECEIVING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OR
SLEET. ONLY MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI WAS SEEING A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD BETWEEN THE RAIN AND THE APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER. SNOW
TOTALS HAVE EXCEEDED EVENING FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...SO HAVE UPDATED NEW TOTALS TO 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE I-40
CORRIDOR TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 9 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. NOT SEEING AS MUCH FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...WITH THE CHANGEOVER COMING IN AS SLEET AND SNOW. SO
MAY HAVE TO UPDATE AGAIN BY SUNRISE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. HAVE
NOT CHANGED THE TIMING OF THE WSW TO END THE STORM EARLY...AS LZK
RADAR RETURNS SHOWS SNOW STILL TO THE WEST...AND IR SATELLITE
SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAA CONVEYOR BELT IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 9 AM AS
MODELS KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT ALONG...AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE
OFFICE...WITH ADDITIONAL OUTAGES LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING.

LATER TODAY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT APPEARS
THAT CLOUDS WILL EXIT PRETTY FAST FROM LATEST UPSTREAM SATELLITE
TRENDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING THIS EVENING AS
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A WINDCHILL ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA STARTING AT MIDNIGHT AS
VALUES DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

THIS WEEKEND...THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER WILL RESIDE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES WILL PROVIDE TWO GOOD DAYS OF MELTING. OF COURSE THAT
PROCESS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ON FRIDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
EXPECTED LOWS A GOOD 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. A SECOND
WINDCHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINSHOWERS
ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RUN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY..WITH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MOST FAVORED.
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

CONDS RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. VFR AT KMEM...KMKL
AND KJBR WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT. KTUP WILL HOLD A MVFR DECK FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OUT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

SJM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

TN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 051739
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1139 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...

LATEST RADAR SHOWS ALL SNOW BANDS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE
MIDSOUTH. THUS HAVE CANCELED ALL REMAINING WINTER STORM WARNINGS.
SOME FLURRIES COULD STILL OCCUR AROUND MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR.
HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS SLIGHTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS AND
THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA AS MARCH SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO AT
LEAST GET TO 30 DEGREES TODAY.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY ALL THE PRECIPITATION ON RADAR WAS OF A WINTER
TYPE...WITH SCATTERED AREAS RECEIVING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OR
SLEET. ONLY MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI WAS SEEING A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD BETWEEN THE RAIN AND THE APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER. SNOW
TOTALS HAVE EXCEEDED EVENING FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...SO HAVE UPDATED NEW TOTALS TO 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE I-40
CORRIDOR TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 9 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. NOT SEEING AS MUCH FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...WITH THE CHANGEOVER COMING IN AS SLEET AND SNOW. SO
MAY HAVE TO UPDATE AGAIN BY SUNRISE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. HAVE
NOT CHANGED THE TIMING OF THE WSW TO END THE STORM EARLY...AS LZK
RADAR RETURNS SHOWS SNOW STILL TO THE WEST...AND IR SATELLITE
SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAA CONVEYOR BELT IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 9 AM AS
MODELS KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT ALONG...AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE
OFFICE...WITH ADDITIONAL OUTAGES LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING.

LATER TODAY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT APPEARS
THAT CLOUDS WILL EXIT PRETTY FAST FROM LATEST UPSTREAM SATELLITE
TRENDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING THIS EVENING AS
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A WINDCHILL ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA STARTING AT MIDNIGHT AS
VALUES DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

THIS WEEKEND...THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER WILL RESIDE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES WILL PROVIDE TWO GOOD DAYS OF MELTING. OF COURSE THAT
PROCESS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ON FRIDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
EXPECTED LOWS A GOOD 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. A SECOND
WINDCHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINSHOWERS
ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RUN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY..WITH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MOST FAVORED.
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

CONDS RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. VFR AT KMEM...KMKL
AND KJBR WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT. KTUP WILL HOLD A MVFR DECK FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OUT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

SJM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

TN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMRX 051730
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1230 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION ENDS EARLY THIS EVENING
AND CIGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT. VFR CONDITION LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. LATE NIGHT MVFR FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MARION-MORGAN-RHEA-
     ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON



000
FXUS64 KMRX 051730
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1230 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION ENDS EARLY THIS EVENING
AND CIGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT. VFR CONDITION LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. LATE NIGHT MVFR FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MARION-MORGAN-RHEA-
     ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KMEG 051717
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1117 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO CANCEL WINTER STORM WARNING ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH.

DISCUSSION...

RADAR TRENDS INDICATING BACK EDGE OF SNOW EXITING THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY...WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS STILL EXPECTED IN AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THROUGH NOON.

JAB

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR REDUCED FREEZING RAIN/ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

DISCUSSION...

SUBFREEZING AIR HAS FINALLY REACHED ALL THE COUNTIES IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THIS PAST HOUR WITH VERY PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN. MOST REPORTS COMING IN HAVE BEEN SLEET SINCE MIDNIGHT...WITH
OXFORD ALREADY PICKING UP AN INCH. HAVE REDUCED THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT FOR THIS REGION AND HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE SNOW AND
SLEET TOTALS FOR THIS MORNING.

ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH ONLY FLURRIES REMAINING POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID MORNING.

JAB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY ALL THE PRECIPITATION ON RADAR WAS OF A WINTER
TYPE...WITH SCATTERED AREAS RECEIVING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OR
SLEET. ONLY MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI WAS SEEING A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD BETWEEN THE RAIN AND THE APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER. SNOW
TOTALS HAVE EXCEEDED EVENING FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...SO HAVE UPDATED NEW TOTALS TO 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE I-40
CORRIDOR TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 9 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. NOT SEEING AS MUCH FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...WITH THE CHANGEOVER COMING IN AS SLEET AND SNOW. SO
MAY HAVE TO UPDATE AGAIN BY SUNRISE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. HAVE
NOT CHANGED THE TIMING OF THE WSW TO END THE STORM EARLY...AS LZK
RADAR RETURNS SHOWS SNOW STILL TO THE WEST...AND IR SATELLITE
SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAA CONVEYOR BELT IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 9 AM AS
MODELS KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT ALONG...AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE
OFFICE...WITH ADDITIONAL OUTAGES LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING.

LATER TODAY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT APPEARS
THAT CLOUDS WILL EXIT PRETTY FAST FROM LATEST UPSTREAM SATELLITE
TRENDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING THIS EVENING AS
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A WINDCHILL ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA STARTING AT MIDNIGHT AS
VALUES DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

THIS WEEKEND...THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER WILL RESIDE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES WILL PROVIDE TWO GOOD DAYS OF MELTING. OF COURSE THAT
PROCESS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ON FRIDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
EXPECTED LOWS A GOOD 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. A SECOND
WINDCHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINSHOWERS
ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RUN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY..WITH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MOST FAVORED.
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

JAB

AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (05/12Z-06/12Z)

WINTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL GRADUALLY END
FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. WILL BEGIN THE KJBR TAF PRECIPITATION
FREE (EXCEPT FOR TEMPO 6SM -SN TIL 13Z) WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON.
LIFR / IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AT KMEM AND KMKL IMPROVING TO MVFR
AROUND 14Z WITH SNOW GRADUALLY ENDING. KMEM BECOMING VFR AFTER 18Z
EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS
LINGERING AT KMKL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING VFR. KTUP WILL
HAVE SLEET AND SNOW THIS MORNING WITH IFR / LIFR CONDITIONS. SLEET
AND SNOW ENDING AT KTUP AROUND 18Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN VFR TONIGHT. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
TODAY...DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

CONDS RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. VFR AT KMEM...KMKL
AND KJBR WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT. KTUP WILL HOLD A MVFR DECK FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OUT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-
     ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 051717
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1117 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO CANCEL WINTER STORM WARNING ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH.

DISCUSSION...

RADAR TRENDS INDICATING BACK EDGE OF SNOW EXITING THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY...WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS STILL EXPECTED IN AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THROUGH NOON.

JAB

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR REDUCED FREEZING RAIN/ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

DISCUSSION...

SUBFREEZING AIR HAS FINALLY REACHED ALL THE COUNTIES IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THIS PAST HOUR WITH VERY PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN. MOST REPORTS COMING IN HAVE BEEN SLEET SINCE MIDNIGHT...WITH
OXFORD ALREADY PICKING UP AN INCH. HAVE REDUCED THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT FOR THIS REGION AND HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE SNOW AND
SLEET TOTALS FOR THIS MORNING.

ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH ONLY FLURRIES REMAINING POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID MORNING.

JAB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY ALL THE PRECIPITATION ON RADAR WAS OF A WINTER
TYPE...WITH SCATTERED AREAS RECEIVING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OR
SLEET. ONLY MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI WAS SEEING A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD BETWEEN THE RAIN AND THE APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER. SNOW
TOTALS HAVE EXCEEDED EVENING FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...SO HAVE UPDATED NEW TOTALS TO 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE I-40
CORRIDOR TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 9 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. NOT SEEING AS MUCH FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...WITH THE CHANGEOVER COMING IN AS SLEET AND SNOW. SO
MAY HAVE TO UPDATE AGAIN BY SUNRISE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. HAVE
NOT CHANGED THE TIMING OF THE WSW TO END THE STORM EARLY...AS LZK
RADAR RETURNS SHOWS SNOW STILL TO THE WEST...AND IR SATELLITE
SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAA CONVEYOR BELT IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 9 AM AS
MODELS KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT ALONG...AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE
OFFICE...WITH ADDITIONAL OUTAGES LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING.

LATER TODAY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT APPEARS
THAT CLOUDS WILL EXIT PRETTY FAST FROM LATEST UPSTREAM SATELLITE
TRENDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING THIS EVENING AS
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A WINDCHILL ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA STARTING AT MIDNIGHT AS
VALUES DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

THIS WEEKEND...THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER WILL RESIDE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES WILL PROVIDE TWO GOOD DAYS OF MELTING. OF COURSE THAT
PROCESS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ON FRIDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
EXPECTED LOWS A GOOD 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. A SECOND
WINDCHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINSHOWERS
ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RUN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY..WITH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MOST FAVORED.
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

JAB

AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (05/12Z-06/12Z)

WINTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL GRADUALLY END
FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. WILL BEGIN THE KJBR TAF PRECIPITATION
FREE (EXCEPT FOR TEMPO 6SM -SN TIL 13Z) WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON.
LIFR / IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AT KMEM AND KMKL IMPROVING TO MVFR
AROUND 14Z WITH SNOW GRADUALLY ENDING. KMEM BECOMING VFR AFTER 18Z
EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS
LINGERING AT KMKL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING VFR. KTUP WILL
HAVE SLEET AND SNOW THIS MORNING WITH IFR / LIFR CONDITIONS. SLEET
AND SNOW ENDING AT KTUP AROUND 18Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN VFR TONIGHT. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
TODAY...DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

CONDS RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. VFR AT KMEM...KMKL
AND KJBR WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT. KTUP WILL HOLD A MVFR DECK FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OUT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-
     ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 051717
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1117 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO CANCEL WINTER STORM WARNING ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH.

DISCUSSION...

RADAR TRENDS INDICATING BACK EDGE OF SNOW EXITING THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY...WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS STILL EXPECTED IN AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THROUGH NOON.

JAB

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR REDUCED FREEZING RAIN/ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

DISCUSSION...

SUBFREEZING AIR HAS FINALLY REACHED ALL THE COUNTIES IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THIS PAST HOUR WITH VERY PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN. MOST REPORTS COMING IN HAVE BEEN SLEET SINCE MIDNIGHT...WITH
OXFORD ALREADY PICKING UP AN INCH. HAVE REDUCED THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT FOR THIS REGION AND HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE SNOW AND
SLEET TOTALS FOR THIS MORNING.

ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH ONLY FLURRIES REMAINING POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID MORNING.

JAB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY ALL THE PRECIPITATION ON RADAR WAS OF A WINTER
TYPE...WITH SCATTERED AREAS RECEIVING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OR
SLEET. ONLY MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI WAS SEEING A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD BETWEEN THE RAIN AND THE APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER. SNOW
TOTALS HAVE EXCEEDED EVENING FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...SO HAVE UPDATED NEW TOTALS TO 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE I-40
CORRIDOR TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 9 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. NOT SEEING AS MUCH FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...WITH THE CHANGEOVER COMING IN AS SLEET AND SNOW. SO
MAY HAVE TO UPDATE AGAIN BY SUNRISE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. HAVE
NOT CHANGED THE TIMING OF THE WSW TO END THE STORM EARLY...AS LZK
RADAR RETURNS SHOWS SNOW STILL TO THE WEST...AND IR SATELLITE
SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAA CONVEYOR BELT IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 9 AM AS
MODELS KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT ALONG...AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE
OFFICE...WITH ADDITIONAL OUTAGES LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING.

LATER TODAY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT APPEARS
THAT CLOUDS WILL EXIT PRETTY FAST FROM LATEST UPSTREAM SATELLITE
TRENDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING THIS EVENING AS
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A WINDCHILL ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA STARTING AT MIDNIGHT AS
VALUES DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

THIS WEEKEND...THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER WILL RESIDE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES WILL PROVIDE TWO GOOD DAYS OF MELTING. OF COURSE THAT
PROCESS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ON FRIDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
EXPECTED LOWS A GOOD 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. A SECOND
WINDCHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINSHOWERS
ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RUN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY..WITH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MOST FAVORED.
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

JAB

AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (05/12Z-06/12Z)

WINTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL GRADUALLY END
FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. WILL BEGIN THE KJBR TAF PRECIPITATION
FREE (EXCEPT FOR TEMPO 6SM -SN TIL 13Z) WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON.
LIFR / IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AT KMEM AND KMKL IMPROVING TO MVFR
AROUND 14Z WITH SNOW GRADUALLY ENDING. KMEM BECOMING VFR AFTER 18Z
EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS
LINGERING AT KMKL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING VFR. KTUP WILL
HAVE SLEET AND SNOW THIS MORNING WITH IFR / LIFR CONDITIONS. SLEET
AND SNOW ENDING AT KTUP AROUND 18Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN VFR TONIGHT. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
TODAY...DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

CONDS RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. VFR AT KMEM...KMKL
AND KJBR WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT. KTUP WILL HOLD A MVFR DECK FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OUT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-
     ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 051717
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1117 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO CANCEL WINTER STORM WARNING ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH.

DISCUSSION...

RADAR TRENDS INDICATING BACK EDGE OF SNOW EXITING THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY...WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS STILL EXPECTED IN AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THROUGH NOON.

JAB

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR REDUCED FREEZING RAIN/ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

DISCUSSION...

SUBFREEZING AIR HAS FINALLY REACHED ALL THE COUNTIES IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THIS PAST HOUR WITH VERY PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN. MOST REPORTS COMING IN HAVE BEEN SLEET SINCE MIDNIGHT...WITH
OXFORD ALREADY PICKING UP AN INCH. HAVE REDUCED THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT FOR THIS REGION AND HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE SNOW AND
SLEET TOTALS FOR THIS MORNING.

ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH ONLY FLURRIES REMAINING POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID MORNING.

JAB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY ALL THE PRECIPITATION ON RADAR WAS OF A WINTER
TYPE...WITH SCATTERED AREAS RECEIVING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OR
SLEET. ONLY MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI WAS SEEING A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD BETWEEN THE RAIN AND THE APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER. SNOW
TOTALS HAVE EXCEEDED EVENING FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...SO HAVE UPDATED NEW TOTALS TO 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE I-40
CORRIDOR TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 9 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. NOT SEEING AS MUCH FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...WITH THE CHANGEOVER COMING IN AS SLEET AND SNOW. SO
MAY HAVE TO UPDATE AGAIN BY SUNRISE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. HAVE
NOT CHANGED THE TIMING OF THE WSW TO END THE STORM EARLY...AS LZK
RADAR RETURNS SHOWS SNOW STILL TO THE WEST...AND IR SATELLITE
SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAA CONVEYOR BELT IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 9 AM AS
MODELS KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT ALONG...AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE
OFFICE...WITH ADDITIONAL OUTAGES LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING.

LATER TODAY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT APPEARS
THAT CLOUDS WILL EXIT PRETTY FAST FROM LATEST UPSTREAM SATELLITE
TRENDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING THIS EVENING AS
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A WINDCHILL ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA STARTING AT MIDNIGHT AS
VALUES DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

THIS WEEKEND...THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER WILL RESIDE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES WILL PROVIDE TWO GOOD DAYS OF MELTING. OF COURSE THAT
PROCESS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ON FRIDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
EXPECTED LOWS A GOOD 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. A SECOND
WINDCHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINSHOWERS
ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RUN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY..WITH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MOST FAVORED.
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

JAB

AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (05/12Z-06/12Z)

WINTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL GRADUALLY END
FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. WILL BEGIN THE KJBR TAF PRECIPITATION
FREE (EXCEPT FOR TEMPO 6SM -SN TIL 13Z) WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON.
LIFR / IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AT KMEM AND KMKL IMPROVING TO MVFR
AROUND 14Z WITH SNOW GRADUALLY ENDING. KMEM BECOMING VFR AFTER 18Z
EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS
LINGERING AT KMKL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING VFR. KTUP WILL
HAVE SLEET AND SNOW THIS MORNING WITH IFR / LIFR CONDITIONS. SLEET
AND SNOW ENDING AT KTUP AROUND 18Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN VFR TONIGHT. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
TODAY...DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

CONDS RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. VFR AT KMEM...KMKL
AND KJBR WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT. KTUP WILL HOLD A MVFR DECK FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OUT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-
     ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 051711
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1111 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...WINTER STORM CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED...AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SIT
DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOR CKV AND
BNA...MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN VFR WILL
PREVAIL AFTER 20Z. N WINDS AROUND 10KT WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT.
FOR CSV...MVFR CIGS WITH OCNL IFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LATE NIGHT BR IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT NOT VERY CONFIDENT SO NOT INCLUDING IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED WSW TO REMOVE NW COUNTIES AND TO REFRESHEN ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING HOURS. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITIONS...
AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 543 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...SNOW COVER...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL PRODUCE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT. OVER NORTHWESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS THOSE WIND CHILLS WILL BE AROUND MINUS
FIVE, AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT PART OF
THE MID STATE. ELSEWHERE....WIND CHILLS BETWEEN ZERO AND 5 DEGREES
WILL BE COMMON.

31

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
TNZ005>009-023>029.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 051711
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1111 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...WINTER STORM CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED...AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SIT
DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOR CKV AND
BNA...MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN VFR WILL
PREVAIL AFTER 20Z. N WINDS AROUND 10KT WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT.
FOR CSV...MVFR CIGS WITH OCNL IFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LATE NIGHT BR IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT NOT VERY CONFIDENT SO NOT INCLUDING IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED WSW TO REMOVE NW COUNTIES AND TO REFRESHEN ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING HOURS. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITIONS...
AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 543 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...SNOW COVER...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL PRODUCE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT. OVER NORTHWESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS THOSE WIND CHILLS WILL BE AROUND MINUS
FIVE, AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT PART OF
THE MID STATE. ELSEWHERE....WIND CHILLS BETWEEN ZERO AND 5 DEGREES
WILL BE COMMON.

31

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
TNZ005>009-023>029.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 051559 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
959 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED WSW TO REMOVE NW COUNTIES AND TO REFRESHEN ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING HOURS. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITIONS...
AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 543 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...SNOW COVER...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL PRODUCE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT. OVER NORTHWESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS THOSE WIND CHILLS WILL BE AROUND MINUS
FIVE, AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT PART OF
THE MID STATE. ELSEWHERE....WIND CHILLS BETWEEN ZERO AND 5 DEGREES
WILL BE COMMON.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
TNZ005>009-023>029.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 051559 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
959 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED WSW TO REMOVE NW COUNTIES AND TO REFRESHEN ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING HOURS. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITIONS...
AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 543 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...SNOW COVER...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL PRODUCE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT. OVER NORTHWESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS THOSE WIND CHILLS WILL BE AROUND MINUS
FIVE, AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT PART OF
THE MID STATE. ELSEWHERE....WIND CHILLS BETWEEN ZERO AND 5 DEGREES
WILL BE COMMON.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
TNZ005>009-023>029.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 051559 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
959 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED WSW TO REMOVE NW COUNTIES AND TO REFRESHEN ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING HOURS. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITIONS...
AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 543 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...SNOW COVER...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL PRODUCE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT. OVER NORTHWESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS THOSE WIND CHILLS WILL BE AROUND MINUS
FIVE, AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT PART OF
THE MID STATE. ELSEWHERE....WIND CHILLS BETWEEN ZERO AND 5 DEGREES
WILL BE COMMON.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
TNZ005>009-023>029.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 051559 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
959 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED WSW TO REMOVE NW COUNTIES AND TO REFRESHEN ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING HOURS. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITIONS...
AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 543 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...SNOW COVER...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL PRODUCE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT. OVER NORTHWESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS THOSE WIND CHILLS WILL BE AROUND MINUS
FIVE, AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT PART OF
THE MID STATE. ELSEWHERE....WIND CHILLS BETWEEN ZERO AND 5 DEGREES
WILL BE COMMON.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
TNZ005>009-023>029.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 051559 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
959 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED WSW TO REMOVE NW COUNTIES AND TO REFRESHEN ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING HOURS. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITIONS...
AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 543 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...SNOW COVER...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL PRODUCE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT. OVER NORTHWESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS THOSE WIND CHILLS WILL BE AROUND MINUS
FIVE, AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT PART OF
THE MID STATE. ELSEWHERE....WIND CHILLS BETWEEN ZERO AND 5 DEGREES
WILL BE COMMON.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
TNZ005>009-023>029.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 051559 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
959 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED WSW TO REMOVE NW COUNTIES AND TO REFRESHEN ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING HOURS. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITIONS...
AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 543 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...SNOW COVER...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL PRODUCE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT. OVER NORTHWESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS THOSE WIND CHILLS WILL BE AROUND MINUS
FIVE, AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT PART OF
THE MID STATE. ELSEWHERE....WIND CHILLS BETWEEN ZERO AND 5 DEGREES
WILL BE COMMON.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
TNZ005>009-023>029.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KMRX 051545
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1045 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. MODEST QPF EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANDED FLOOD AREAS AND
LANDSLIDE POTENTIAL.

SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS HAS SLIDE OFF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO THE
E TN VALLEY. WARNING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE ALONG PLATEAU WITH
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE VALLEY. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
REMAIN IN FLUX ALONG EASTERN EDGE OF FREEZING LINE. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             36  21  46  26 / 100  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  32  17  39  23 / 100  10   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       31  17  42  23 / 100  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              32  14  38  20 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MARION-MORGAN-RHEA-
     ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON



000
FXUS64 KMRX 051545
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1045 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. MODEST QPF EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANDED FLOOD AREAS AND
LANDSLIDE POTENTIAL.

SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS HAS SLIDE OFF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO THE
E TN VALLEY. WARNING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE ALONG PLATEAU WITH
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE VALLEY. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
REMAIN IN FLUX ALONG EASTERN EDGE OF FREEZING LINE. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             36  21  46  26 / 100  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  32  17  39  23 / 100  10   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       31  17  42  23 / 100  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              32  14  38  20 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MARION-MORGAN-RHEA-
     ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON



000
FXUS64 KMRX 051545
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1045 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. MODEST QPF EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANDED FLOOD AREAS AND
LANDSLIDE POTENTIAL.

SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS HAS SLIDE OFF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO THE
E TN VALLEY. WARNING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE ALONG PLATEAU WITH
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE VALLEY. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
REMAIN IN FLUX ALONG EASTERN EDGE OF FREEZING LINE. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             36  21  46  26 / 100  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  32  17  39  23 / 100  10   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       31  17  42  23 / 100  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              32  14  38  20 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MARION-MORGAN-RHEA-
     ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON



000
FXUS64 KMRX 051545
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1045 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. MODEST QPF EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANDED FLOOD AREAS AND
LANDSLIDE POTENTIAL.

SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS HAS SLIDE OFF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO THE
E TN VALLEY. WARNING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE ALONG PLATEAU WITH
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE VALLEY. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
REMAIN IN FLUX ALONG EASTERN EDGE OF FREEZING LINE. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             36  21  46  26 / 100  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  32  17  39  23 / 100  10   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       31  17  42  23 / 100  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              32  14  38  20 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MARION-MORGAN-RHEA-
     ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON



000
FXUS64 KMRX 051545
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1045 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. MODEST QPF EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANDED FLOOD AREAS AND
LANDSLIDE POTENTIAL.

SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS HAS SLIDE OFF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO THE
E TN VALLEY. WARNING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE ALONG PLATEAU WITH
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE VALLEY. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
REMAIN IN FLUX ALONG EASTERN EDGE OF FREEZING LINE. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             36  21  46  26 / 100  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  32  17  39  23 / 100  10   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       31  17  42  23 / 100  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              32  14  38  20 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MARION-MORGAN-RHEA-
     ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KMEG 051354
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
754 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO CANCEL WINTER STORM WARNING ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR TRENDS INDICATING BACK EDGE OF SNOW EXITING THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY...WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS STILL EXPECTED IN AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THROUGH NOON.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR REDUCED FREEZING RAIN/ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

DISCUSSION...

SUBFREEZING AIR HAS FINALLY REACHED ALL THE COUNITES IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THIS PAST HOUR WITH VERY PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN. MOST REPORTS COMING IN HAVE BEEN SLEET SINCE MIDNIGHT...WITH
OXFORD ALREADY PICKING UP AN INCH. HAVE REDUCED THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT FOR THIS REGION AND HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE SNOW AND
SLEET TOTALS FOR THIS MORNING.

ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH ONLY FLURRIES REMAINING POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID MORNING.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY ALL THE PRECIPITATION ON RADAR WAS OF A WINTER
TYPE...WITH SCATTERED AREAS RECEIVING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OR
SLEET. ONLY MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI WAS SEEING A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD BETWEEN THE RAIN AND THE APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER. SNOW
TOTALS HAVE EXCEEDED EVENING FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...SO HAVE UPDATED NEW TOTALS TO 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE I-40
CORRIDOR TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 9 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. NOT SEEING AS MUCH FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...WITH THE CHANGEOVER COMING IN AS SLEET AND SNOW. SO
MAY HAVE TO UPDATE AGAIN BY SUNRISE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. HAVE
NOT CHANGED THE TIMING OF THE WSW TO END THE STORM EARLY...AS LZK
RADAR RETURNS SHOWS SNOW STILL TO THE WEST...AND IR SATELLITE
SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAA CONVEYOR BELT IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 9 AM AS
MODELS KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT ALONG...AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE
OFFICE...WITH ADDITIONAL OUTAGES LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING.

LATER TODAY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT APPEARS
THAT CLOUDS WILL EXIT PRETTY FAST FROM LATEST UPSTREAM SATELLITE
TRENDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING THIS EVENING AS
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A WINDCHILL ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA STARTING AT MIDNIGHT AS
VALUES DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

THIS WEEKEND...THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER WILL RESIDE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES WILL PROVIDE TWO GOOD DAYS OF MELTING. OF COURSE THAT
PROCESS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ON FRIDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
EXPECTED LOWS A GOOD 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. A SECOND
WINDCHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINSHOWERS
ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RUN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY..WITH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MOST FAVORED.
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (05/12Z-06/12Z)

WINTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL GRADUALLY END
FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. WILL BEGIN THE KJBR TAF PRECIPITATION
FREE (EXCEPT FOR TEMPO 6SM -SN TIL 13Z) WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON.
LIFR / IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AT KMEM AND KMKL IMPROVING TO MVFR
AROUND 14Z WITH SNOW GRADUALLY ENDING. KMEM BECOMING VFR AFTER 18Z
EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS
LINGERING AT KMKL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING VFR. KTUP WILL
HAVE SLEET AND SNOW THIS MORNING WITH IFR / LIFR CONDITIONS. SLEET
AND SNOW ENDING AT KTUP AROUND 18Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN VFR TONIGHT. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
TODAY...DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-
     MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-
     UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 051354
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
754 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO CANCEL WINTER STORM WARNING ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR TRENDS INDICATING BACK EDGE OF SNOW EXITING THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY...WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS STILL EXPECTED IN AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THROUGH NOON.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR REDUCED FREEZING RAIN/ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

DISCUSSION...

SUBFREEZING AIR HAS FINALLY REACHED ALL THE COUNITES IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THIS PAST HOUR WITH VERY PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN. MOST REPORTS COMING IN HAVE BEEN SLEET SINCE MIDNIGHT...WITH
OXFORD ALREADY PICKING UP AN INCH. HAVE REDUCED THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT FOR THIS REGION AND HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE SNOW AND
SLEET TOTALS FOR THIS MORNING.

ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH ONLY FLURRIES REMAINING POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID MORNING.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY ALL THE PRECIPITATION ON RADAR WAS OF A WINTER
TYPE...WITH SCATTERED AREAS RECEIVING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OR
SLEET. ONLY MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI WAS SEEING A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD BETWEEN THE RAIN AND THE APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER. SNOW
TOTALS HAVE EXCEEDED EVENING FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...SO HAVE UPDATED NEW TOTALS TO 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE I-40
CORRIDOR TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 9 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. NOT SEEING AS MUCH FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...WITH THE CHANGEOVER COMING IN AS SLEET AND SNOW. SO
MAY HAVE TO UPDATE AGAIN BY SUNRISE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. HAVE
NOT CHANGED THE TIMING OF THE WSW TO END THE STORM EARLY...AS LZK
RADAR RETURNS SHOWS SNOW STILL TO THE WEST...AND IR SATELLITE
SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAA CONVEYOR BELT IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 9 AM AS
MODELS KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT ALONG...AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE
OFFICE...WITH ADDITIONAL OUTAGES LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING.

LATER TODAY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT APPEARS
THAT CLOUDS WILL EXIT PRETTY FAST FROM LATEST UPSTREAM SATELLITE
TRENDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING THIS EVENING AS
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A WINDCHILL ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA STARTING AT MIDNIGHT AS
VALUES DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

THIS WEEKEND...THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER WILL RESIDE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES WILL PROVIDE TWO GOOD DAYS OF MELTING. OF COURSE THAT
PROCESS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ON FRIDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
EXPECTED LOWS A GOOD 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. A SECOND
WINDCHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINSHOWERS
ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RUN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY..WITH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MOST FAVORED.
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (05/12Z-06/12Z)

WINTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL GRADUALLY END
FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. WILL BEGIN THE KJBR TAF PRECIPITATION
FREE (EXCEPT FOR TEMPO 6SM -SN TIL 13Z) WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON.
LIFR / IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AT KMEM AND KMKL IMPROVING TO MVFR
AROUND 14Z WITH SNOW GRADUALLY ENDING. KMEM BECOMING VFR AFTER 18Z
EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS
LINGERING AT KMKL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING VFR. KTUP WILL
HAVE SLEET AND SNOW THIS MORNING WITH IFR / LIFR CONDITIONS. SLEET
AND SNOW ENDING AT KTUP AROUND 18Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN VFR TONIGHT. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
TODAY...DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-
     MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-
     UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 051143
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
543 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...SNOW COVER...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL PRODUCE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT. OVER NORTHWESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS THOSE WIND CHILLS WILL BE AROUND MINUS
FIVE, AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT PART OF
THE MID STATE. ELSEWHERE....WIND CHILLS BETWEEN ZERO AND 5 DEGREES
WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TNZ005>007-
023>026.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
TNZ005>009-023>029.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 051143
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
543 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...SNOW COVER...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL PRODUCE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT. OVER NORTHWESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS THOSE WIND CHILLS WILL BE AROUND MINUS
FIVE, AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT PART OF
THE MID STATE. ELSEWHERE....WIND CHILLS BETWEEN ZERO AND 5 DEGREES
WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TNZ005>007-
023>026.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
TNZ005>009-023>029.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 051143
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
543 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...SNOW COVER...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL PRODUCE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT. OVER NORTHWESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS THOSE WIND CHILLS WILL BE AROUND MINUS
FIVE, AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT PART OF
THE MID STATE. ELSEWHERE....WIND CHILLS BETWEEN ZERO AND 5 DEGREES
WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TNZ005>007-
023>026.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
TNZ005>009-023>029.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 051133
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
533 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

HEAVY SNOW BANDS HAVE MOVED OVER KBNA...AND HAVE BROUGHT IFR VIS.
CIGS SHOULD VARY BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR FOR TAF SITES AS PERIODS OF
HEAVY AND LIGHT SNOW MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. VIS MAY GET DOWN TO A
HALF MILE AT TIMES AS THE SNOW GETS HEAVIER PASSING OVER THE TAF
SITES BUT IFR/MVFR VIS LOOKS LIKELY EARLY ON. WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY
STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...CIGS
SHOULD BE HIGH MVFR FOR KCKV AND KBNA BEFORE BECOMING VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TNZ005>007-
023>026.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
TNZ005>009-023>029.

&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KOHX 051133
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
533 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

HEAVY SNOW BANDS HAVE MOVED OVER KBNA...AND HAVE BROUGHT IFR VIS.
CIGS SHOULD VARY BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR FOR TAF SITES AS PERIODS OF
HEAVY AND LIGHT SNOW MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. VIS MAY GET DOWN TO A
HALF MILE AT TIMES AS THE SNOW GETS HEAVIER PASSING OVER THE TAF
SITES BUT IFR/MVFR VIS LOOKS LIKELY EARLY ON. WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY
STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...CIGS
SHOULD BE HIGH MVFR FOR KCKV AND KBNA BEFORE BECOMING VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TNZ005>007-
023>026.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
TNZ005>009-023>029.

&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KOHX 051133
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
533 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

HEAVY SNOW BANDS HAVE MOVED OVER KBNA...AND HAVE BROUGHT IFR VIS.
CIGS SHOULD VARY BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR FOR TAF SITES AS PERIODS OF
HEAVY AND LIGHT SNOW MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. VIS MAY GET DOWN TO A
HALF MILE AT TIMES AS THE SNOW GETS HEAVIER PASSING OVER THE TAF
SITES BUT IFR/MVFR VIS LOOKS LIKELY EARLY ON. WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY
STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...CIGS
SHOULD BE HIGH MVFR FOR KCKV AND KBNA BEFORE BECOMING VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TNZ005>007-
023>026.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
TNZ005>009-023>029.

&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KOHX 051133
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
533 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

HEAVY SNOW BANDS HAVE MOVED OVER KBNA...AND HAVE BROUGHT IFR VIS.
CIGS SHOULD VARY BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR FOR TAF SITES AS PERIODS OF
HEAVY AND LIGHT SNOW MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. VIS MAY GET DOWN TO A
HALF MILE AT TIMES AS THE SNOW GETS HEAVIER PASSING OVER THE TAF
SITES BUT IFR/MVFR VIS LOOKS LIKELY EARLY ON. WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY
STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...CIGS
SHOULD BE HIGH MVFR FOR KCKV AND KBNA BEFORE BECOMING VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TNZ005>007-
023>026.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
TNZ005>009-023>029.

&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KMEG 051126 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
526 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR REDUCED FREEZING RAIN/ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

DISCUSSION...

SUBFREEZING AIR HAS FINALLY REACHED ALL THE COUNITES IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THIS PAST HOUR WITH VERY PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN. MOST REPORTS COMING IN HAVE BEEN SLEET SINCE MIDNIGHT...WITH
OXFORD ALREADY PICKING UP AN INCH. HAVE REDUCED THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT FOR THIS REGION AND HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE SNOW AND
SLEET TOTALS FOR THIS MORNING.

ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH ONLY FLURRIES REMAINING POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID MORNING.

JAB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY ALL THE PRECIPITATION ON RADAR WAS OF A WINTER
TYPE...WITH SCATTERED AREAS RECEIVING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OR
SLEET. ONLY MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI WAS SEEING A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD BETWEEN THE RAIN AND THE APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER. SNOW
TOTALS HAVE EXCEEDED EVENING FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...SO HAVE UPDATED NEW TOTALS TO 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE I-40
CORRIDOR TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 9 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. NOT SEEING AS MUCH FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...WITH THE CHANGEOVER COMING IN AS SLEET AND SNOW. SO
MAY HAVE TO UPDATE AGAIN BY SUNRISE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. HAVE
NOT CHANGED THE TIMING OF THE WSW TO END THE STORM EARLY...AS LZK
RADAR RETURNS SHOWS SNOW STILL TO THE WEST...AND IR SATELLITE
SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAA CONVEYOR BELT IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 9 AM AS
MODELS KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT ALONG...AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE
OFFICE...WITH ADDITIONAL OUTAGES LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING.

LATER TODAY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT APPEARS
THAT CLOUDS WILL EXIT PRETTY FAST FROM LATEST UPSTREAM SATELLITE
TRENDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING THIS EVENING AS
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A WINDCHILL ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA STARTING AT MIDNIGHT AS
VALUES DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

THIS WEEKEND...THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER WILL RESIDE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES WILL PROVIDE TWO GOOD DAYS OF MELTING. OF COURSE THAT
PROCESS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ON FRIDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
EXPECTED LOWS A GOOD 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. A SECOND
WINDCHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINSHOWERS
ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RUN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY..WITH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MOST FAVORED.
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (05/12Z-06/12Z)

WINTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL GRADUALLY END
FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. WILL BEGIN THE KJBR TAF PRECIPITATION
FREE (EXCEPT FOR TEMPO 6SM -SN TIL 13Z) WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON.
LIFR / IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AT KMEM AND KMKL IMPROVING TO MVFR
AROUND 14Z WITH SNOW GRADUALLY ENDING. KMEM BECOMING VFR AFTER 18Z
EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS
LINGERING AT KMKL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING VFR. KTUP WILL
HAVE SLEET AND SNOW THIS MORNING WITH IFR / LIFR CONDITIONS. SLEET
AND SNOW ENDING AT KTUP AROUND 18Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN VFR TONIGHT. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
TODAY...DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-
     CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
     LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC-
     PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DYER-GIBSON-
     HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 051126 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
526 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR REDUCED FREEZING RAIN/ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

DISCUSSION...

SUBFREEZING AIR HAS FINALLY REACHED ALL THE COUNITES IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THIS PAST HOUR WITH VERY PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN. MOST REPORTS COMING IN HAVE BEEN SLEET SINCE MIDNIGHT...WITH
OXFORD ALREADY PICKING UP AN INCH. HAVE REDUCED THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT FOR THIS REGION AND HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE SNOW AND
SLEET TOTALS FOR THIS MORNING.

ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH ONLY FLURRIES REMAINING POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID MORNING.

JAB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY ALL THE PRECIPITATION ON RADAR WAS OF A WINTER
TYPE...WITH SCATTERED AREAS RECEIVING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OR
SLEET. ONLY MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI WAS SEEING A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD BETWEEN THE RAIN AND THE APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER. SNOW
TOTALS HAVE EXCEEDED EVENING FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...SO HAVE UPDATED NEW TOTALS TO 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE I-40
CORRIDOR TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 9 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. NOT SEEING AS MUCH FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...WITH THE CHANGEOVER COMING IN AS SLEET AND SNOW. SO
MAY HAVE TO UPDATE AGAIN BY SUNRISE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. HAVE
NOT CHANGED THE TIMING OF THE WSW TO END THE STORM EARLY...AS LZK
RADAR RETURNS SHOWS SNOW STILL TO THE WEST...AND IR SATELLITE
SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAA CONVEYOR BELT IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 9 AM AS
MODELS KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT ALONG...AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE
OFFICE...WITH ADDITIONAL OUTAGES LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING.

LATER TODAY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT APPEARS
THAT CLOUDS WILL EXIT PRETTY FAST FROM LATEST UPSTREAM SATELLITE
TRENDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING THIS EVENING AS
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A WINDCHILL ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA STARTING AT MIDNIGHT AS
VALUES DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

THIS WEEKEND...THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER WILL RESIDE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES WILL PROVIDE TWO GOOD DAYS OF MELTING. OF COURSE THAT
PROCESS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ON FRIDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
EXPECTED LOWS A GOOD 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. A SECOND
WINDCHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINSHOWERS
ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RUN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY..WITH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MOST FAVORED.
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (05/12Z-06/12Z)

WINTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL GRADUALLY END
FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. WILL BEGIN THE KJBR TAF PRECIPITATION
FREE (EXCEPT FOR TEMPO 6SM -SN TIL 13Z) WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON.
LIFR / IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AT KMEM AND KMKL IMPROVING TO MVFR
AROUND 14Z WITH SNOW GRADUALLY ENDING. KMEM BECOMING VFR AFTER 18Z
EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS
LINGERING AT KMKL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING VFR. KTUP WILL
HAVE SLEET AND SNOW THIS MORNING WITH IFR / LIFR CONDITIONS. SLEET
AND SNOW ENDING AT KTUP AROUND 18Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN VFR TONIGHT. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
TODAY...DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-
     CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
     LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC-
     PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DYER-GIBSON-
     HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 051126 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
526 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR REDUCED FREEZING RAIN/ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

DISCUSSION...

SUBFREEZING AIR HAS FINALLY REACHED ALL THE COUNITES IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THIS PAST HOUR WITH VERY PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN. MOST REPORTS COMING IN HAVE BEEN SLEET SINCE MIDNIGHT...WITH
OXFORD ALREADY PICKING UP AN INCH. HAVE REDUCED THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT FOR THIS REGION AND HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE SNOW AND
SLEET TOTALS FOR THIS MORNING.

ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH ONLY FLURRIES REMAINING POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID MORNING.

JAB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY ALL THE PRECIPITATION ON RADAR WAS OF A WINTER
TYPE...WITH SCATTERED AREAS RECEIVING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OR
SLEET. ONLY MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI WAS SEEING A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD BETWEEN THE RAIN AND THE APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER. SNOW
TOTALS HAVE EXCEEDED EVENING FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...SO HAVE UPDATED NEW TOTALS TO 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE I-40
CORRIDOR TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 9 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. NOT SEEING AS MUCH FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...WITH THE CHANGEOVER COMING IN AS SLEET AND SNOW. SO
MAY HAVE TO UPDATE AGAIN BY SUNRISE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. HAVE
NOT CHANGED THE TIMING OF THE WSW TO END THE STORM EARLY...AS LZK
RADAR RETURNS SHOWS SNOW STILL TO THE WEST...AND IR SATELLITE
SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAA CONVEYOR BELT IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 9 AM AS
MODELS KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT ALONG...AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE
OFFICE...WITH ADDITIONAL OUTAGES LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING.

LATER TODAY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT APPEARS
THAT CLOUDS WILL EXIT PRETTY FAST FROM LATEST UPSTREAM SATELLITE
TRENDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING THIS EVENING AS
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A WINDCHILL ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA STARTING AT MIDNIGHT AS
VALUES DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

THIS WEEKEND...THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER WILL RESIDE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES WILL PROVIDE TWO GOOD DAYS OF MELTING. OF COURSE THAT
PROCESS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ON FRIDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
EXPECTED LOWS A GOOD 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. A SECOND
WINDCHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINSHOWERS
ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RUN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY..WITH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MOST FAVORED.
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (05/12Z-06/12Z)

WINTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL GRADUALLY END
FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. WILL BEGIN THE KJBR TAF PRECIPITATION
FREE (EXCEPT FOR TEMPO 6SM -SN TIL 13Z) WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON.
LIFR / IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AT KMEM AND KMKL IMPROVING TO MVFR
AROUND 14Z WITH SNOW GRADUALLY ENDING. KMEM BECOMING VFR AFTER 18Z
EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS
LINGERING AT KMKL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING VFR. KTUP WILL
HAVE SLEET AND SNOW THIS MORNING WITH IFR / LIFR CONDITIONS. SLEET
AND SNOW ENDING AT KTUP AROUND 18Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN VFR TONIGHT. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
TODAY...DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-
     CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
     LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC-
     PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DYER-GIBSON-
     HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 051126 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
526 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR REDUCED FREEZING RAIN/ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

DISCUSSION...

SUBFREEZING AIR HAS FINALLY REACHED ALL THE COUNITES IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THIS PAST HOUR WITH VERY PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN. MOST REPORTS COMING IN HAVE BEEN SLEET SINCE MIDNIGHT...WITH
OXFORD ALREADY PICKING UP AN INCH. HAVE REDUCED THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT FOR THIS REGION AND HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE SNOW AND
SLEET TOTALS FOR THIS MORNING.

ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH ONLY FLURRIES REMAINING POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID MORNING.

JAB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY ALL THE PRECIPITATION ON RADAR WAS OF A WINTER
TYPE...WITH SCATTERED AREAS RECEIVING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OR
SLEET. ONLY MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI WAS SEEING A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD BETWEEN THE RAIN AND THE APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER. SNOW
TOTALS HAVE EXCEEDED EVENING FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...SO HAVE UPDATED NEW TOTALS TO 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE I-40
CORRIDOR TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 9 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. NOT SEEING AS MUCH FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...WITH THE CHANGEOVER COMING IN AS SLEET AND SNOW. SO
MAY HAVE TO UPDATE AGAIN BY SUNRISE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. HAVE
NOT CHANGED THE TIMING OF THE WSW TO END THE STORM EARLY...AS LZK
RADAR RETURNS SHOWS SNOW STILL TO THE WEST...AND IR SATELLITE
SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAA CONVEYOR BELT IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 9 AM AS
MODELS KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT ALONG...AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE
OFFICE...WITH ADDITIONAL OUTAGES LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING.

LATER TODAY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT APPEARS
THAT CLOUDS WILL EXIT PRETTY FAST FROM LATEST UPSTREAM SATELLITE
TRENDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING THIS EVENING AS
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A WINDCHILL ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA STARTING AT MIDNIGHT AS
VALUES DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

THIS WEEKEND...THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER WILL RESIDE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES WILL PROVIDE TWO GOOD DAYS OF MELTING. OF COURSE THAT
PROCESS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ON FRIDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
EXPECTED LOWS A GOOD 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. A SECOND
WINDCHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINSHOWERS
ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RUN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY..WITH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MOST FAVORED.
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (05/12Z-06/12Z)

WINTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL GRADUALLY END
FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. WILL BEGIN THE KJBR TAF PRECIPITATION
FREE (EXCEPT FOR TEMPO 6SM -SN TIL 13Z) WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON.
LIFR / IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AT KMEM AND KMKL IMPROVING TO MVFR
AROUND 14Z WITH SNOW GRADUALLY ENDING. KMEM BECOMING VFR AFTER 18Z
EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS
LINGERING AT KMKL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING VFR. KTUP WILL
HAVE SLEET AND SNOW THIS MORNING WITH IFR / LIFR CONDITIONS. SLEET
AND SNOW ENDING AT KTUP AROUND 18Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN VFR TONIGHT. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
TODAY...DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-
     CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
     LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC-
     PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DYER-GIBSON-
     HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 051126 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
526 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR REDUCED FREEZING RAIN/ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

DISCUSSION...

SUBFREEZING AIR HAS FINALLY REACHED ALL THE COUNITES IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THIS PAST HOUR WITH VERY PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN. MOST REPORTS COMING IN HAVE BEEN SLEET SINCE MIDNIGHT...WITH
OXFORD ALREADY PICKING UP AN INCH. HAVE REDUCED THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT FOR THIS REGION AND HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE SNOW AND
SLEET TOTALS FOR THIS MORNING.

ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH ONLY FLURRIES REMAINING POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID MORNING.

JAB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY ALL THE PRECIPITATION ON RADAR WAS OF A WINTER
TYPE...WITH SCATTERED AREAS RECEIVING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OR
SLEET. ONLY MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI WAS SEEING A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD BETWEEN THE RAIN AND THE APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER. SNOW
TOTALS HAVE EXCEEDED EVENING FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...SO HAVE UPDATED NEW TOTALS TO 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE I-40
CORRIDOR TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 9 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. NOT SEEING AS MUCH FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...WITH THE CHANGEOVER COMING IN AS SLEET AND SNOW. SO
MAY HAVE TO UPDATE AGAIN BY SUNRISE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. HAVE
NOT CHANGED THE TIMING OF THE WSW TO END THE STORM EARLY...AS LZK
RADAR RETURNS SHOWS SNOW STILL TO THE WEST...AND IR SATELLITE
SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAA CONVEYOR BELT IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 9 AM AS
MODELS KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT ALONG...AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE
OFFICE...WITH ADDITIONAL OUTAGES LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING.

LATER TODAY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT APPEARS
THAT CLOUDS WILL EXIT PRETTY FAST FROM LATEST UPSTREAM SATELLITE
TRENDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING THIS EVENING AS
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A WINDCHILL ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA STARTING AT MIDNIGHT AS
VALUES DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

THIS WEEKEND...THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER WILL RESIDE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES WILL PROVIDE TWO GOOD DAYS OF MELTING. OF COURSE THAT
PROCESS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ON FRIDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
EXPECTED LOWS A GOOD 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. A SECOND
WINDCHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINSHOWERS
ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RUN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY..WITH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MOST FAVORED.
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (05/12Z-06/12Z)

WINTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL GRADUALLY END
FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. WILL BEGIN THE KJBR TAF PRECIPITATION
FREE (EXCEPT FOR TEMPO 6SM -SN TIL 13Z) WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON.
LIFR / IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AT KMEM AND KMKL IMPROVING TO MVFR
AROUND 14Z WITH SNOW GRADUALLY ENDING. KMEM BECOMING VFR AFTER 18Z
EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS
LINGERING AT KMKL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING VFR. KTUP WILL
HAVE SLEET AND SNOW THIS MORNING WITH IFR / LIFR CONDITIONS. SLEET
AND SNOW ENDING AT KTUP AROUND 18Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN VFR TONIGHT. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
TODAY...DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-
     CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
     LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC-
     PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DYER-GIBSON-
     HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 051126 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
526 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR REDUCED FREEZING RAIN/ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

DISCUSSION...

SUBFREEZING AIR HAS FINALLY REACHED ALL THE COUNITES IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THIS PAST HOUR WITH VERY PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN. MOST REPORTS COMING IN HAVE BEEN SLEET SINCE MIDNIGHT...WITH
OXFORD ALREADY PICKING UP AN INCH. HAVE REDUCED THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT FOR THIS REGION AND HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE SNOW AND
SLEET TOTALS FOR THIS MORNING.

ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH ONLY FLURRIES REMAINING POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID MORNING.

JAB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY ALL THE PRECIPITATION ON RADAR WAS OF A WINTER
TYPE...WITH SCATTERED AREAS RECEIVING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OR
SLEET. ONLY MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI WAS SEEING A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD BETWEEN THE RAIN AND THE APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER. SNOW
TOTALS HAVE EXCEEDED EVENING FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...SO HAVE UPDATED NEW TOTALS TO 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE I-40
CORRIDOR TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 9 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. NOT SEEING AS MUCH FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...WITH THE CHANGEOVER COMING IN AS SLEET AND SNOW. SO
MAY HAVE TO UPDATE AGAIN BY SUNRISE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. HAVE
NOT CHANGED THE TIMING OF THE WSW TO END THE STORM EARLY...AS LZK
RADAR RETURNS SHOWS SNOW STILL TO THE WEST...AND IR SATELLITE
SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAA CONVEYOR BELT IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 9 AM AS
MODELS KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT ALONG...AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE
OFFICE...WITH ADDITIONAL OUTAGES LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING.

LATER TODAY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT APPEARS
THAT CLOUDS WILL EXIT PRETTY FAST FROM LATEST UPSTREAM SATELLITE
TRENDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING THIS EVENING AS
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A WINDCHILL ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA STARTING AT MIDNIGHT AS
VALUES DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

THIS WEEKEND...THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER WILL RESIDE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES WILL PROVIDE TWO GOOD DAYS OF MELTING. OF COURSE THAT
PROCESS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ON FRIDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
EXPECTED LOWS A GOOD 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. A SECOND
WINDCHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINSHOWERS
ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RUN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY..WITH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MOST FAVORED.
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (05/12Z-06/12Z)

WINTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL GRADUALLY END
FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. WILL BEGIN THE KJBR TAF PRECIPITATION
FREE (EXCEPT FOR TEMPO 6SM -SN TIL 13Z) WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON.
LIFR / IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AT KMEM AND KMKL IMPROVING TO MVFR
AROUND 14Z WITH SNOW GRADUALLY ENDING. KMEM BECOMING VFR AFTER 18Z
EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS
LINGERING AT KMKL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING VFR. KTUP WILL
HAVE SLEET AND SNOW THIS MORNING WITH IFR / LIFR CONDITIONS. SLEET
AND SNOW ENDING AT KTUP AROUND 18Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN VFR TONIGHT. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
TODAY...DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-
     CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
     LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC-
     PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DYER-GIBSON-
     HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 051121
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
620 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.AVIATION...SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY TURN TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW THIS
MORNING.  ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VIS FOR MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.  PRECIP SHOULD
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THE LOW CLOUDS
AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.  PRECIP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z BUT LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 051121
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
620 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.AVIATION...SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY TURN TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW THIS
MORNING.  ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VIS FOR MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.  PRECIP SHOULD
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THE LOW CLOUDS
AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.  PRECIP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z BUT LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 051116
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
516 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR REDUCED FREEZING RAIN/ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SUBFREEZING AIR HAS FINALLY REACHED ALL THE COUNITES IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THIS PAST HOUR WITH VERY PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN. MOST REPORTS COMING IN HAVE BEEN SLEET SINCE MIDNIGHT...WITH
OXFORD ALREADY PICKING UP AN INCH. HAVE REDUCED THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT FOR THIS REGION AND HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE SNOW AND
SLEET TOTALS FOR THIS MORNING.

ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH ONLY FLURRIES REMAINING POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID MORNING.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY ALL THE PRECIPITATION ON RADAR WAS OF A WINTER
TYPE...WITH SCATTERED AREAS RECEIVING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OR
SLEET. ONLY MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI WAS SEEING A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD BETWEEN THE RAIN AND THE APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER. SNOW
TOTALS HAVE EXCEEDED EVENING FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...SO HAVE UPDATED NEW TOTALS TO 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE I-40
CORRIDOR TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 9 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. NOT SEEING AS MUCH FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...WITH THE CHANGEOVER COMING IN AS SLEET AND SNOW. SO
MAY HAVE TO UPDATE AGAIN BY SUNRISE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. HAVE
NOT CHANGED THE TIMING OF THE WSW TO END THE STORM EARLY...AS LZK
RADAR RETURNS SHOWS SNOW STILL TO THE WEST...AND IR SATELLITE
SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAA CONVEYOR BELT IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 9 AM AS
MODELS KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT ALONG...AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE
OFFICE...WITH ADDITIONAL OUTAGES LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING.

LATER TODAY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT APPEARS
THAT CLOUDS WILL EXIT PRETTY FAST FROM LATEST UPSTREAM SATELLITE
TRENDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING THIS EVENING AS
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A WINDCHILL ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA STARTING AT MIDNIGHT AS
VALUES DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

THIS WEEKEND...THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER WILL RESIDE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES WILL PROVIDE TWO GOOD DAYS OF MELTING. OF COURSE THAT
PROCESS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ON FRIDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
EXPECTED LOWS A GOOD 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. A SECOND
WINDCHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINSHOWERS
ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RUN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY..WITH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MOST FAVORED.
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

WINTER PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE NORTHWEST 2/3RDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-
     CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
     LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC-
     PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DYER-GIBSON-
     HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 051116
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
516 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR REDUCED FREEZING RAIN/ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SUBFREEZING AIR HAS FINALLY REACHED ALL THE COUNITES IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THIS PAST HOUR WITH VERY PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN. MOST REPORTS COMING IN HAVE BEEN SLEET SINCE MIDNIGHT...WITH
OXFORD ALREADY PICKING UP AN INCH. HAVE REDUCED THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT FOR THIS REGION AND HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE SNOW AND
SLEET TOTALS FOR THIS MORNING.

ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH ONLY FLURRIES REMAINING POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID MORNING.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY ALL THE PRECIPITATION ON RADAR WAS OF A WINTER
TYPE...WITH SCATTERED AREAS RECEIVING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OR
SLEET. ONLY MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI WAS SEEING A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD BETWEEN THE RAIN AND THE APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER. SNOW
TOTALS HAVE EXCEEDED EVENING FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...SO HAVE UPDATED NEW TOTALS TO 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE I-40
CORRIDOR TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 9 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. NOT SEEING AS MUCH FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...WITH THE CHANGEOVER COMING IN AS SLEET AND SNOW. SO
MAY HAVE TO UPDATE AGAIN BY SUNRISE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. HAVE
NOT CHANGED THE TIMING OF THE WSW TO END THE STORM EARLY...AS LZK
RADAR RETURNS SHOWS SNOW STILL TO THE WEST...AND IR SATELLITE
SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAA CONVEYOR BELT IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 9 AM AS
MODELS KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT ALONG...AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE
OFFICE...WITH ADDITIONAL OUTAGES LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING.

LATER TODAY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT APPEARS
THAT CLOUDS WILL EXIT PRETTY FAST FROM LATEST UPSTREAM SATELLITE
TRENDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING THIS EVENING AS
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A WINDCHILL ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA STARTING AT MIDNIGHT AS
VALUES DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

THIS WEEKEND...THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER WILL RESIDE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES WILL PROVIDE TWO GOOD DAYS OF MELTING. OF COURSE THAT
PROCESS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ON FRIDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
EXPECTED LOWS A GOOD 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. A SECOND
WINDCHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINSHOWERS
ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RUN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY..WITH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MOST FAVORED.
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

WINTER PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE NORTHWEST 2/3RDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-
     CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
     LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC-
     PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DYER-GIBSON-
     HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 051116
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
516 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR REDUCED FREEZING RAIN/ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SUBFREEZING AIR HAS FINALLY REACHED ALL THE COUNITES IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THIS PAST HOUR WITH VERY PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN. MOST REPORTS COMING IN HAVE BEEN SLEET SINCE MIDNIGHT...WITH
OXFORD ALREADY PICKING UP AN INCH. HAVE REDUCED THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT FOR THIS REGION AND HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE SNOW AND
SLEET TOTALS FOR THIS MORNING.

ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH ONLY FLURRIES REMAINING POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID MORNING.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY ALL THE PRECIPITATION ON RADAR WAS OF A WINTER
TYPE...WITH SCATTERED AREAS RECEIVING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OR
SLEET. ONLY MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI WAS SEEING A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD BETWEEN THE RAIN AND THE APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER. SNOW
TOTALS HAVE EXCEEDED EVENING FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...SO HAVE UPDATED NEW TOTALS TO 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE I-40
CORRIDOR TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 9 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. NOT SEEING AS MUCH FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...WITH THE CHANGEOVER COMING IN AS SLEET AND SNOW. SO
MAY HAVE TO UPDATE AGAIN BY SUNRISE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. HAVE
NOT CHANGED THE TIMING OF THE WSW TO END THE STORM EARLY...AS LZK
RADAR RETURNS SHOWS SNOW STILL TO THE WEST...AND IR SATELLITE
SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAA CONVEYOR BELT IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 9 AM AS
MODELS KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT ALONG...AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE
OFFICE...WITH ADDITIONAL OUTAGES LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING.

LATER TODAY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT APPEARS
THAT CLOUDS WILL EXIT PRETTY FAST FROM LATEST UPSTREAM SATELLITE
TRENDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING THIS EVENING AS
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A WINDCHILL ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA STARTING AT MIDNIGHT AS
VALUES DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

THIS WEEKEND...THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER WILL RESIDE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES WILL PROVIDE TWO GOOD DAYS OF MELTING. OF COURSE THAT
PROCESS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ON FRIDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
EXPECTED LOWS A GOOD 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. A SECOND
WINDCHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINSHOWERS
ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RUN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY..WITH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MOST FAVORED.
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

WINTER PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE NORTHWEST 2/3RDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-
     CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
     LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC-
     PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DYER-GIBSON-
     HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 051116
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
516 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR REDUCED FREEZING RAIN/ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SUBFREEZING AIR HAS FINALLY REACHED ALL THE COUNITES IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THIS PAST HOUR WITH VERY PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN. MOST REPORTS COMING IN HAVE BEEN SLEET SINCE MIDNIGHT...WITH
OXFORD ALREADY PICKING UP AN INCH. HAVE REDUCED THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT FOR THIS REGION AND HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE SNOW AND
SLEET TOTALS FOR THIS MORNING.

ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH ONLY FLURRIES REMAINING POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID MORNING.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY ALL THE PRECIPITATION ON RADAR WAS OF A WINTER
TYPE...WITH SCATTERED AREAS RECEIVING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OR
SLEET. ONLY MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI WAS SEEING A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD BETWEEN THE RAIN AND THE APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER. SNOW
TOTALS HAVE EXCEEDED EVENING FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...SO HAVE UPDATED NEW TOTALS TO 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE I-40
CORRIDOR TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 9 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. NOT SEEING AS MUCH FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...WITH THE CHANGEOVER COMING IN AS SLEET AND SNOW. SO
MAY HAVE TO UPDATE AGAIN BY SUNRISE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. HAVE
NOT CHANGED THE TIMING OF THE WSW TO END THE STORM EARLY...AS LZK
RADAR RETURNS SHOWS SNOW STILL TO THE WEST...AND IR SATELLITE
SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAA CONVEYOR BELT IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 9 AM AS
MODELS KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT ALONG...AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE
OFFICE...WITH ADDITIONAL OUTAGES LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING.

LATER TODAY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT APPEARS
THAT CLOUDS WILL EXIT PRETTY FAST FROM LATEST UPSTREAM SATELLITE
TRENDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING THIS EVENING AS
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A WINDCHILL ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA STARTING AT MIDNIGHT AS
VALUES DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

THIS WEEKEND...THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER WILL RESIDE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES WILL PROVIDE TWO GOOD DAYS OF MELTING. OF COURSE THAT
PROCESS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ON FRIDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
EXPECTED LOWS A GOOD 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. A SECOND
WINDCHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINSHOWERS
ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RUN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY..WITH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MOST FAVORED.
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

WINTER PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE NORTHWEST 2/3RDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-
     CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
     LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC-
     PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DYER-GIBSON-
     HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 051116
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
516 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR REDUCED FREEZING RAIN/ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SUBFREEZING AIR HAS FINALLY REACHED ALL THE COUNITES IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THIS PAST HOUR WITH VERY PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN. MOST REPORTS COMING IN HAVE BEEN SLEET SINCE MIDNIGHT...WITH
OXFORD ALREADY PICKING UP AN INCH. HAVE REDUCED THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT FOR THIS REGION AND HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE SNOW AND
SLEET TOTALS FOR THIS MORNING.

ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH ONLY FLURRIES REMAINING POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID MORNING.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY ALL THE PRECIPITATION ON RADAR WAS OF A WINTER
TYPE...WITH SCATTERED AREAS RECEIVING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OR
SLEET. ONLY MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI WAS SEEING A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD BETWEEN THE RAIN AND THE APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER. SNOW
TOTALS HAVE EXCEEDED EVENING FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...SO HAVE UPDATED NEW TOTALS TO 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE I-40
CORRIDOR TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 9 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. NOT SEEING AS MUCH FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...WITH THE CHANGEOVER COMING IN AS SLEET AND SNOW. SO
MAY HAVE TO UPDATE AGAIN BY SUNRISE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. HAVE
NOT CHANGED THE TIMING OF THE WSW TO END THE STORM EARLY...AS LZK
RADAR RETURNS SHOWS SNOW STILL TO THE WEST...AND IR SATELLITE
SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAA CONVEYOR BELT IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 9 AM AS
MODELS KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT ALONG...AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE
OFFICE...WITH ADDITIONAL OUTAGES LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING.

LATER TODAY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT APPEARS
THAT CLOUDS WILL EXIT PRETTY FAST FROM LATEST UPSTREAM SATELLITE
TRENDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING THIS EVENING AS
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A WINDCHILL ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA STARTING AT MIDNIGHT AS
VALUES DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

THIS WEEKEND...THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER WILL RESIDE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES WILL PROVIDE TWO GOOD DAYS OF MELTING. OF COURSE THAT
PROCESS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ON FRIDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
EXPECTED LOWS A GOOD 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. A SECOND
WINDCHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINSHOWERS
ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RUN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY..WITH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MOST FAVORED.
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

WINTER PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE NORTHWEST 2/3RDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-
     CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
     LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC-
     PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DYER-GIBSON-
     HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 051116
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
516 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR REDUCED FREEZING RAIN/ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SUBFREEZING AIR HAS FINALLY REACHED ALL THE COUNITES IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THIS PAST HOUR WITH VERY PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN. MOST REPORTS COMING IN HAVE BEEN SLEET SINCE MIDNIGHT...WITH
OXFORD ALREADY PICKING UP AN INCH. HAVE REDUCED THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT FOR THIS REGION AND HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE SNOW AND
SLEET TOTALS FOR THIS MORNING.

ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH ONLY FLURRIES REMAINING POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID MORNING.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY ALL THE PRECIPITATION ON RADAR WAS OF A WINTER
TYPE...WITH SCATTERED AREAS RECEIVING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OR
SLEET. ONLY MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI WAS SEEING A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD BETWEEN THE RAIN AND THE APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER. SNOW
TOTALS HAVE EXCEEDED EVENING FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...SO HAVE UPDATED NEW TOTALS TO 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE I-40
CORRIDOR TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 9 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. NOT SEEING AS MUCH FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...WITH THE CHANGEOVER COMING IN AS SLEET AND SNOW. SO
MAY HAVE TO UPDATE AGAIN BY SUNRISE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. HAVE
NOT CHANGED THE TIMING OF THE WSW TO END THE STORM EARLY...AS LZK
RADAR RETURNS SHOWS SNOW STILL TO THE WEST...AND IR SATELLITE
SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAA CONVEYOR BELT IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 9 AM AS
MODELS KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT ALONG...AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE
OFFICE...WITH ADDITIONAL OUTAGES LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING.

LATER TODAY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT APPEARS
THAT CLOUDS WILL EXIT PRETTY FAST FROM LATEST UPSTREAM SATELLITE
TRENDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING THIS EVENING AS
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A WINDCHILL ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA STARTING AT MIDNIGHT AS
VALUES DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

THIS WEEKEND...THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER WILL RESIDE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES WILL PROVIDE TWO GOOD DAYS OF MELTING. OF COURSE THAT
PROCESS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ON FRIDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
EXPECTED LOWS A GOOD 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. A SECOND
WINDCHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINSHOWERS
ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RUN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY..WITH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MOST FAVORED.
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

WINTER PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE NORTHWEST 2/3RDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-
     CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
     LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC-
     PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DYER-GIBSON-
     HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 050941
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
339 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SHORT TERM...BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN SWEEPING
ACROSS NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE SINCE ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND ABOUT
AN HOUR AGO WE RECEIVED A REPORT OF 3 1/2 INCHES OF SNOW JUST
NORTH OF CLARKSVILLE NEAR THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE LINE. THERE HAVE
ALSO BEEN REPORTS UP TO NEAR A FOOT OF SNOW IN MURRAY, KY, JUST
WEST OF STEWART COUNTY. THIS BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING, WITH
NORTHERN AREAS PICKING UP MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET AND SOUTHERN AREAS
PICKING UP MAINLY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

BASED ON REPORTS SO FAR, MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT RECEIVED AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN.

THE BAND OF SNOW WILL CROSS THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT 2
TO 4 HOURS, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW THAT MAY FALL AT THE
RATE OF AN INCH OR TWO AN HOUR, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR THE
KENTUCKY BORDER. DAVIDSON COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP ANYWHERE
BETWEEN 2 INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH, TO UP TO AROUND 5 INCHES IN
THE JOELTON AREA.

THIS BAND OF SNOW SHOULD EXIT THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER NOON, HAVING
LEFT BEHIND SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES IN
THE NORTHWEST, TO 2 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR, TO 2-3
INCHES IN AREAS FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HOHENWALD, COLUMBIA AND
MURFREESBORO. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, OF COURSE, ARE POSSIBLE.

HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATIONS, FROM FREEZING RAIN, ARE EXPECTED OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL AREAS. AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
TOTAL AROUND A QUARTER INCH, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

AFTER THE SNOW MOVES OUT, SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREES, WITH SOME SPOTS NEAR THE SNOW-PACKED
KENTUCKY BORDER LIKELY TO SEE SOME READINGS CLOSE TO ZERO. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S OVER
THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHLAND RIM, TO THE LOWER 30S AROUND NASHVILLE,
AND MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S FURTHER SOUTH.

SOUTHERLY WINDS FINALLY BRING SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE
MID STATE ON FRIDAY, BUT BY "WARM" WE MEAN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

LONG TERM...WARMING TREND LOOKS TO HOLD STRONG AFTER
SATURDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY GETTING TO THE 60S
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY QUIET...WITH
SUBTLE TROUGHS SLIDING THROUGH WEAK RIDGING/ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE
REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR
QPF FROM THE SHORTWAVES...SO DIDNT GET TOO GENEROUS WITH POPS IN
THE EXTENDED. HAVE SCHC/CHC POPS FROM WED ONWARD AS EITHER THE GFS
OR ECMWF HAS SOME PRECIP OVER THE REGION DURING THAT TIME. FOR
NOW...850 MB TEMPS STAY ABOVE 0C THROUGH THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK
SO IT APPEARS AS WE WILL AVOID ANOTHER ROUND OF FROZEN/MIXED
PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      26  10  33  18 /  60  05  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    24   3  26  15 /  40  05  05  05
CROSSVILLE     26  12  35  21 /  80  10  05  10
COLUMBIA       25  10  35  19 /  70  05  05  10
LAWRENCEBURG   29  12  38  23 /  70  05  05  10
WAVERLY        24   7  29  16 /  50  05  05  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TNZ005>007-
023>026.

&&

$$

06











000
FXUS64 KOHX 050941
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
339 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SHORT TERM...BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN SWEEPING
ACROSS NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE SINCE ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND ABOUT
AN HOUR AGO WE RECEIVED A REPORT OF 3 1/2 INCHES OF SNOW JUST
NORTH OF CLARKSVILLE NEAR THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE LINE. THERE HAVE
ALSO BEEN REPORTS UP TO NEAR A FOOT OF SNOW IN MURRAY, KY, JUST
WEST OF STEWART COUNTY. THIS BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING, WITH
NORTHERN AREAS PICKING UP MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET AND SOUTHERN AREAS
PICKING UP MAINLY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

BASED ON REPORTS SO FAR, MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT RECEIVED AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN.

THE BAND OF SNOW WILL CROSS THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT 2
TO 4 HOURS, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW THAT MAY FALL AT THE
RATE OF AN INCH OR TWO AN HOUR, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR THE
KENTUCKY BORDER. DAVIDSON COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP ANYWHERE
BETWEEN 2 INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH, TO UP TO AROUND 5 INCHES IN
THE JOELTON AREA.

THIS BAND OF SNOW SHOULD EXIT THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER NOON, HAVING
LEFT BEHIND SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES IN
THE NORTHWEST, TO 2 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR, TO 2-3
INCHES IN AREAS FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HOHENWALD, COLUMBIA AND
MURFREESBORO. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, OF COURSE, ARE POSSIBLE.

HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATIONS, FROM FREEZING RAIN, ARE EXPECTED OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL AREAS. AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
TOTAL AROUND A QUARTER INCH, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

AFTER THE SNOW MOVES OUT, SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREES, WITH SOME SPOTS NEAR THE SNOW-PACKED
KENTUCKY BORDER LIKELY TO SEE SOME READINGS CLOSE TO ZERO. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S OVER
THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHLAND RIM, TO THE LOWER 30S AROUND NASHVILLE,
AND MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S FURTHER SOUTH.

SOUTHERLY WINDS FINALLY BRING SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE
MID STATE ON FRIDAY, BUT BY "WARM" WE MEAN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

LONG TERM...WARMING TREND LOOKS TO HOLD STRONG AFTER
SATURDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY GETTING TO THE 60S
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY QUIET...WITH
SUBTLE TROUGHS SLIDING THROUGH WEAK RIDGING/ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE
REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR
QPF FROM THE SHORTWAVES...SO DIDNT GET TOO GENEROUS WITH POPS IN
THE EXTENDED. HAVE SCHC/CHC POPS FROM WED ONWARD AS EITHER THE GFS
OR ECMWF HAS SOME PRECIP OVER THE REGION DURING THAT TIME. FOR
NOW...850 MB TEMPS STAY ABOVE 0C THROUGH THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK
SO IT APPEARS AS WE WILL AVOID ANOTHER ROUND OF FROZEN/MIXED
PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      26  10  33  18 /  60  05  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    24   3  26  15 /  40  05  05  05
CROSSVILLE     26  12  35  21 /  80  10  05  10
COLUMBIA       25  10  35  19 /  70  05  05  10
LAWRENCEBURG   29  12  38  23 /  70  05  05  10
WAVERLY        24   7  29  16 /  50  05  05  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TNZ005>007-
023>026.

&&

$$

06










000
FXUS64 KOHX 050941
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
339 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SHORT TERM...BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN SWEEPING
ACROSS NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE SINCE ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND ABOUT
AN HOUR AGO WE RECEIVED A REPORT OF 3 1/2 INCHES OF SNOW JUST
NORTH OF CLARKSVILLE NEAR THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE LINE. THERE HAVE
ALSO BEEN REPORTS UP TO NEAR A FOOT OF SNOW IN MURRAY, KY, JUST
WEST OF STEWART COUNTY. THIS BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING, WITH
NORTHERN AREAS PICKING UP MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET AND SOUTHERN AREAS
PICKING UP MAINLY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

BASED ON REPORTS SO FAR, MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT RECEIVED AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN.

THE BAND OF SNOW WILL CROSS THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT 2
TO 4 HOURS, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW THAT MAY FALL AT THE
RATE OF AN INCH OR TWO AN HOUR, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR THE
KENTUCKY BORDER. DAVIDSON COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP ANYWHERE
BETWEEN 2 INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH, TO UP TO AROUND 5 INCHES IN
THE JOELTON AREA.

THIS BAND OF SNOW SHOULD EXIT THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER NOON, HAVING
LEFT BEHIND SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES IN
THE NORTHWEST, TO 2 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR, TO 2-3
INCHES IN AREAS FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HOHENWALD, COLUMBIA AND
MURFREESBORO. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, OF COURSE, ARE POSSIBLE.

HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATIONS, FROM FREEZING RAIN, ARE EXPECTED OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL AREAS. AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
TOTAL AROUND A QUARTER INCH, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

AFTER THE SNOW MOVES OUT, SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREES, WITH SOME SPOTS NEAR THE SNOW-PACKED
KENTUCKY BORDER LIKELY TO SEE SOME READINGS CLOSE TO ZERO. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S OVER
THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHLAND RIM, TO THE LOWER 30S AROUND NASHVILLE,
AND MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S FURTHER SOUTH.

SOUTHERLY WINDS FINALLY BRING SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE
MID STATE ON FRIDAY, BUT BY "WARM" WE MEAN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

LONG TERM...WARMING TREND LOOKS TO HOLD STRONG AFTER
SATURDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY GETTING TO THE 60S
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY QUIET...WITH
SUBTLE TROUGHS SLIDING THROUGH WEAK RIDGING/ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE
REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR
QPF FROM THE SHORTWAVES...SO DIDNT GET TOO GENEROUS WITH POPS IN
THE EXTENDED. HAVE SCHC/CHC POPS FROM WED ONWARD AS EITHER THE GFS
OR ECMWF HAS SOME PRECIP OVER THE REGION DURING THAT TIME. FOR
NOW...850 MB TEMPS STAY ABOVE 0C THROUGH THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK
SO IT APPEARS AS WE WILL AVOID ANOTHER ROUND OF FROZEN/MIXED
PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      26  10  33  18 /  60  05  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    24   3  26  15 /  40  05  05  05
CROSSVILLE     26  12  35  21 /  80  10  05  10
COLUMBIA       25  10  35  19 /  70  05  05  10
LAWRENCEBURG   29  12  38  23 /  70  05  05  10
WAVERLY        24   7  29  16 /  50  05  05  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TNZ005>007-
023>026.

&&

$$

06










000
FXUS64 KOHX 050941
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
339 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SHORT TERM...BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN SWEEPING
ACROSS NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE SINCE ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND ABOUT
AN HOUR AGO WE RECEIVED A REPORT OF 3 1/2 INCHES OF SNOW JUST
NORTH OF CLARKSVILLE NEAR THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE LINE. THERE HAVE
ALSO BEEN REPORTS UP TO NEAR A FOOT OF SNOW IN MURRAY, KY, JUST
WEST OF STEWART COUNTY. THIS BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING, WITH
NORTHERN AREAS PICKING UP MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET AND SOUTHERN AREAS
PICKING UP MAINLY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

BASED ON REPORTS SO FAR, MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT RECEIVED AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN.

THE BAND OF SNOW WILL CROSS THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT 2
TO 4 HOURS, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW THAT MAY FALL AT THE
RATE OF AN INCH OR TWO AN HOUR, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR THE
KENTUCKY BORDER. DAVIDSON COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP ANYWHERE
BETWEEN 2 INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH, TO UP TO AROUND 5 INCHES IN
THE JOELTON AREA.

THIS BAND OF SNOW SHOULD EXIT THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER NOON, HAVING
LEFT BEHIND SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES IN
THE NORTHWEST, TO 2 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR, TO 2-3
INCHES IN AREAS FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HOHENWALD, COLUMBIA AND
MURFREESBORO. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, OF COURSE, ARE POSSIBLE.

HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATIONS, FROM FREEZING RAIN, ARE EXPECTED OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL AREAS. AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
TOTAL AROUND A QUARTER INCH, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

AFTER THE SNOW MOVES OUT, SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREES, WITH SOME SPOTS NEAR THE SNOW-PACKED
KENTUCKY BORDER LIKELY TO SEE SOME READINGS CLOSE TO ZERO. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S OVER
THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHLAND RIM, TO THE LOWER 30S AROUND NASHVILLE,
AND MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S FURTHER SOUTH.

SOUTHERLY WINDS FINALLY BRING SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE
MID STATE ON FRIDAY, BUT BY "WARM" WE MEAN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

LONG TERM...WARMING TREND LOOKS TO HOLD STRONG AFTER
SATURDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY GETTING TO THE 60S
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY QUIET...WITH
SUBTLE TROUGHS SLIDING THROUGH WEAK RIDGING/ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE
REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR
QPF FROM THE SHORTWAVES...SO DIDNT GET TOO GENEROUS WITH POPS IN
THE EXTENDED. HAVE SCHC/CHC POPS FROM WED ONWARD AS EITHER THE GFS
OR ECMWF HAS SOME PRECIP OVER THE REGION DURING THAT TIME. FOR
NOW...850 MB TEMPS STAY ABOVE 0C THROUGH THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK
SO IT APPEARS AS WE WILL AVOID ANOTHER ROUND OF FROZEN/MIXED
PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      26  10  33  18 /  60  05  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    24   3  26  15 /  40  05  05  05
CROSSVILLE     26  12  35  21 /  80  10  05  10
COLUMBIA       25  10  35  19 /  70  05  05  10
LAWRENCEBURG   29  12  38  23 /  70  05  05  10
WAVERLY        24   7  29  16 /  50  05  05  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TNZ005>007-
023>026.

&&

$$

06










000
FXUS64 KOHX 050941
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
339 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SHORT TERM...BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN SWEEPING
ACROSS NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE SINCE ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND ABOUT
AN HOUR AGO WE RECEIVED A REPORT OF 3 1/2 INCHES OF SNOW JUST
NORTH OF CLARKSVILLE NEAR THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE LINE. THERE HAVE
ALSO BEEN REPORTS UP TO NEAR A FOOT OF SNOW IN MURRAY, KY, JUST
WEST OF STEWART COUNTY. THIS BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING, WITH
NORTHERN AREAS PICKING UP MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET AND SOUTHERN AREAS
PICKING UP MAINLY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

BASED ON REPORTS SO FAR, MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT RECEIVED AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN.

THE BAND OF SNOW WILL CROSS THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT 2
TO 4 HOURS, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW THAT MAY FALL AT THE
RATE OF AN INCH OR TWO AN HOUR, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR THE
KENTUCKY BORDER. DAVIDSON COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP ANYWHERE
BETWEEN 2 INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH, TO UP TO AROUND 5 INCHES IN
THE JOELTON AREA.

THIS BAND OF SNOW SHOULD EXIT THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER NOON, HAVING
LEFT BEHIND SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES IN
THE NORTHWEST, TO 2 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR, TO 2-3
INCHES IN AREAS FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HOHENWALD, COLUMBIA AND
MURFREESBORO. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, OF COURSE, ARE POSSIBLE.

HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATIONS, FROM FREEZING RAIN, ARE EXPECTED OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL AREAS. AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
TOTAL AROUND A QUARTER INCH, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

AFTER THE SNOW MOVES OUT, SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREES, WITH SOME SPOTS NEAR THE SNOW-PACKED
KENTUCKY BORDER LIKELY TO SEE SOME READINGS CLOSE TO ZERO. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S OVER
THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHLAND RIM, TO THE LOWER 30S AROUND NASHVILLE,
AND MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S FURTHER SOUTH.

SOUTHERLY WINDS FINALLY BRING SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE
MID STATE ON FRIDAY, BUT BY "WARM" WE MEAN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

LONG TERM...WARMING TREND LOOKS TO HOLD STRONG AFTER
SATURDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY GETTING TO THE 60S
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY QUIET...WITH
SUBTLE TROUGHS SLIDING THROUGH WEAK RIDGING/ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE
REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR
QPF FROM THE SHORTWAVES...SO DIDNT GET TOO GENEROUS WITH POPS IN
THE EXTENDED. HAVE SCHC/CHC POPS FROM WED ONWARD AS EITHER THE GFS
OR ECMWF HAS SOME PRECIP OVER THE REGION DURING THAT TIME. FOR
NOW...850 MB TEMPS STAY ABOVE 0C THROUGH THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK
SO IT APPEARS AS WE WILL AVOID ANOTHER ROUND OF FROZEN/MIXED
PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      26  10  33  18 /  60  05  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    24   3  26  15 /  40  05  05  05
CROSSVILLE     26  12  35  21 /  80  10  05  10
COLUMBIA       25  10  35  19 /  70  05  05  10
LAWRENCEBURG   29  12  38  23 /  70  05  05  10
WAVERLY        24   7  29  16 /  50  05  05  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TNZ005>007-
023>026.

&&

$$

06










000
FXUS64 KOHX 050941
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
339 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SHORT TERM...BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN SWEEPING
ACROSS NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE SINCE ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND ABOUT
AN HOUR AGO WE RECEIVED A REPORT OF 3 1/2 INCHES OF SNOW JUST
NORTH OF CLARKSVILLE NEAR THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE LINE. THERE HAVE
ALSO BEEN REPORTS UP TO NEAR A FOOT OF SNOW IN MURRAY, KY, JUST
WEST OF STEWART COUNTY. THIS BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING, WITH
NORTHERN AREAS PICKING UP MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET AND SOUTHERN AREAS
PICKING UP MAINLY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

BASED ON REPORTS SO FAR, MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT RECEIVED AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN.

THE BAND OF SNOW WILL CROSS THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT 2
TO 4 HOURS, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW THAT MAY FALL AT THE
RATE OF AN INCH OR TWO AN HOUR, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR THE
KENTUCKY BORDER. DAVIDSON COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP ANYWHERE
BETWEEN 2 INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH, TO UP TO AROUND 5 INCHES IN
THE JOELTON AREA.

THIS BAND OF SNOW SHOULD EXIT THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER NOON, HAVING
LEFT BEHIND SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES IN
THE NORTHWEST, TO 2 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR, TO 2-3
INCHES IN AREAS FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HOHENWALD, COLUMBIA AND
MURFREESBORO. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, OF COURSE, ARE POSSIBLE.

HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATIONS, FROM FREEZING RAIN, ARE EXPECTED OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL AREAS. AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
TOTAL AROUND A QUARTER INCH, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

AFTER THE SNOW MOVES OUT, SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREES, WITH SOME SPOTS NEAR THE SNOW-PACKED
KENTUCKY BORDER LIKELY TO SEE SOME READINGS CLOSE TO ZERO. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S OVER
THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHLAND RIM, TO THE LOWER 30S AROUND NASHVILLE,
AND MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S FURTHER SOUTH.

SOUTHERLY WINDS FINALLY BRING SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE
MID STATE ON FRIDAY, BUT BY "WARM" WE MEAN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

LONG TERM...WARMING TREND LOOKS TO HOLD STRONG AFTER
SATURDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY GETTING TO THE 60S
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY QUIET...WITH
SUBTLE TROUGHS SLIDING THROUGH WEAK RIDGING/ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE
REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR
QPF FROM THE SHORTWAVES...SO DIDNT GET TOO GENEROUS WITH POPS IN
THE EXTENDED. HAVE SCHC/CHC POPS FROM WED ONWARD AS EITHER THE GFS
OR ECMWF HAS SOME PRECIP OVER THE REGION DURING THAT TIME. FOR
NOW...850 MB TEMPS STAY ABOVE 0C THROUGH THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK
SO IT APPEARS AS WE WILL AVOID ANOTHER ROUND OF FROZEN/MIXED
PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      26  10  33  18 /  60  05  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    24   3  26  15 /  40  05  05  05
CROSSVILLE     26  12  35  21 /  80  10  05  10
COLUMBIA       25  10  35  19 /  70  05  05  10
LAWRENCEBURG   29  12  38  23 /  70  05  05  10
WAVERLY        24   7  29  16 /  50  05  05  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TNZ005>007-
023>026.

&&

$$

06










000
FXUS64 KOHX 050939
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
339 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SHORT TERM...BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN SWEEPING
ACROSS NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE SINCE ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND ABOUT
AN HOUR AGO WE RECEIVED A REPORT OF 3 1/2 INCHES OF SNOW JUST
NORTH OF CLARKSVILLE NEAR THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE LINE. THERE HAVE
ALSO BEEN REPORTS UP TO NEAR A FOOT OF SNOW IN MURRAY, KY, JUST
WEST OF STEWART COUNTY. THIS BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING, WITH
NORTHERN AREAS PICKING UP MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET AND SOUTHERN AREAS
PICKING UP MAINLY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

BASED ON REPORTS SO FAR, MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT RECEIVED AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN.

THE BAND OF SNOW WILL CROSS THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT
2 TO 4 HOURS, WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW THAT MAY FALL AT THE RATE
OF AN INCH OR TWO AN HOUR. DAVIDSON COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP
ANYWHERE BETWEEN 2 INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH, TO UP TO AROUND
5 INCHES IN THE JOELTON AREA.

THIS BAND OF SNOW SHOULD EXIT THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER NOON,
HAVING LEFT BEHIND SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM TWO TO
FIVE INCHES ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR, TO 2-3 INCHES IN AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HOHENWALD, COLUMBIA AND MURFREESBORO. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS, OF COURSE, ARE POSSIBLE.

HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATIONS, FROM FREEZING RAIN, ARE EXPECTED OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL AREAS. AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
TOTAL AROUND A QUARTER INCH, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

AFTER THE SNOW MOVES OUT, SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREES, WITH SOME SPOTS NEAR THE SNOW-PACKED
KENTUCKY BORDER LIKELY TO SEE SOME READINGS CLOSE TO ZERO. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S OVER
THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHLAND RIM, TO THE LOWER 30S AROUND NASHVILLE,
AND MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S FURTHER SOUTH.

SOUTHERLY WINDS FINALLY BRING SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE
MID STATE ON FRIDAY, BUT BY "WARM" WE MEAN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

LONG TERM...WARMING TREND LOOKS TO HOLD STRONG AFTER
SATURDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY GETTING TO THE 60S
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY QUIET...WITH
SUBTLE TROUGHS SLIDING THROUGH WEAK RIDGING/ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE
REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR
QPF FROM THE SHORTWAVES...SO DIDNT GET TOO GENEROUS WITH POPS IN
THE EXTENDED. HAVE SCHC/CHC POPS FROM WED ONWARD AS EITHER THE GFS
OR ECMWF HAS SOME PRECIP OVER THE REGION DURING THAT TIME. FOR
NOW...850 MB TEMPS STAY ABOVE 0C THROUGH THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK
SO IT APPEARS AS WE WILL AVOID ANOTHER ROUND OF FROZEN/MIXED
PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      26  10  33  18 /  60  05  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    24   3  26  15 /  40  05  05  05
CROSSVILLE     26  12  35  21 /  80  10  05  10
COLUMBIA       25  10  35  19 /  70  05  05  10
LAWRENCEBURG   29  12  38  23 /  70  05  05  10
WAVERLY        24   7  29  16 /  50  05  05  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TNZ005>007-
023>026.

&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KOHX 050939
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
339 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SHORT TERM...BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN SWEEPING
ACROSS NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE SINCE ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND ABOUT
AN HOUR AGO WE RECEIVED A REPORT OF 3 1/2 INCHES OF SNOW JUST
NORTH OF CLARKSVILLE NEAR THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE LINE. THERE HAVE
ALSO BEEN REPORTS UP TO NEAR A FOOT OF SNOW IN MURRAY, KY, JUST
WEST OF STEWART COUNTY. THIS BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING, WITH
NORTHERN AREAS PICKING UP MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET AND SOUTHERN AREAS
PICKING UP MAINLY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

BASED ON REPORTS SO FAR, MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT RECEIVED AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN.

THE BAND OF SNOW WILL CROSS THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT
2 TO 4 HOURS, WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW THAT MAY FALL AT THE RATE
OF AN INCH OR TWO AN HOUR. DAVIDSON COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP
ANYWHERE BETWEEN 2 INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH, TO UP TO AROUND
5 INCHES IN THE JOELTON AREA.

THIS BAND OF SNOW SHOULD EXIT THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER NOON,
HAVING LEFT BEHIND SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM TWO TO
FIVE INCHES ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR, TO 2-3 INCHES IN AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HOHENWALD, COLUMBIA AND MURFREESBORO. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS, OF COURSE, ARE POSSIBLE.

HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATIONS, FROM FREEZING RAIN, ARE EXPECTED OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL AREAS. AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
TOTAL AROUND A QUARTER INCH, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

AFTER THE SNOW MOVES OUT, SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREES, WITH SOME SPOTS NEAR THE SNOW-PACKED
KENTUCKY BORDER LIKELY TO SEE SOME READINGS CLOSE TO ZERO. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S OVER
THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHLAND RIM, TO THE LOWER 30S AROUND NASHVILLE,
AND MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S FURTHER SOUTH.

SOUTHERLY WINDS FINALLY BRING SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE
MID STATE ON FRIDAY, BUT BY "WARM" WE MEAN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

LONG TERM...WARMING TREND LOOKS TO HOLD STRONG AFTER
SATURDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY GETTING TO THE 60S
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY QUIET...WITH
SUBTLE TROUGHS SLIDING THROUGH WEAK RIDGING/ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE
REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR
QPF FROM THE SHORTWAVES...SO DIDNT GET TOO GENEROUS WITH POPS IN
THE EXTENDED. HAVE SCHC/CHC POPS FROM WED ONWARD AS EITHER THE GFS
OR ECMWF HAS SOME PRECIP OVER THE REGION DURING THAT TIME. FOR
NOW...850 MB TEMPS STAY ABOVE 0C THROUGH THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK
SO IT APPEARS AS WE WILL AVOID ANOTHER ROUND OF FROZEN/MIXED
PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      26  10  33  18 /  60  05  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    24   3  26  15 /  40  05  05  05
CROSSVILLE     26  12  35  21 /  80  10  05  10
COLUMBIA       25  10  35  19 /  70  05  05  10
LAWRENCEBURG   29  12  38  23 /  70  05  05  10
WAVERLY        24   7  29  16 /  50  05  05  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TNZ005>007-
023>026.

&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KOHX 050939
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
339 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SHORT TERM...BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN SWEEPING
ACROSS NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE SINCE ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND ABOUT
AN HOUR AGO WE RECEIVED A REPORT OF 3 1/2 INCHES OF SNOW JUST
NORTH OF CLARKSVILLE NEAR THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE LINE. THERE HAVE
ALSO BEEN REPORTS UP TO NEAR A FOOT OF SNOW IN MURRAY, KY, JUST
WEST OF STEWART COUNTY. THIS BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING, WITH
NORTHERN AREAS PICKING UP MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET AND SOUTHERN AREAS
PICKING UP MAINLY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

BASED ON REPORTS SO FAR, MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT RECEIVED AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN.

THE BAND OF SNOW WILL CROSS THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT
2 TO 4 HOURS, WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW THAT MAY FALL AT THE RATE
OF AN INCH OR TWO AN HOUR. DAVIDSON COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP
ANYWHERE BETWEEN 2 INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH, TO UP TO AROUND
5 INCHES IN THE JOELTON AREA.

THIS BAND OF SNOW SHOULD EXIT THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER NOON,
HAVING LEFT BEHIND SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM TWO TO
FIVE INCHES ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR, TO 2-3 INCHES IN AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HOHENWALD, COLUMBIA AND MURFREESBORO. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS, OF COURSE, ARE POSSIBLE.

HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATIONS, FROM FREEZING RAIN, ARE EXPECTED OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL AREAS. AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
TOTAL AROUND A QUARTER INCH, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

AFTER THE SNOW MOVES OUT, SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREES, WITH SOME SPOTS NEAR THE SNOW-PACKED
KENTUCKY BORDER LIKELY TO SEE SOME READINGS CLOSE TO ZERO. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S OVER
THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHLAND RIM, TO THE LOWER 30S AROUND NASHVILLE,
AND MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S FURTHER SOUTH.

SOUTHERLY WINDS FINALLY BRING SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE
MID STATE ON FRIDAY, BUT BY "WARM" WE MEAN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

LONG TERM...WARMING TREND LOOKS TO HOLD STRONG AFTER
SATURDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY GETTING TO THE 60S
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY QUIET...WITH
SUBTLE TROUGHS SLIDING THROUGH WEAK RIDGING/ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE
REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR
QPF FROM THE SHORTWAVES...SO DIDNT GET TOO GENEROUS WITH POPS IN
THE EXTENDED. HAVE SCHC/CHC POPS FROM WED ONWARD AS EITHER THE GFS
OR ECMWF HAS SOME PRECIP OVER THE REGION DURING THAT TIME. FOR
NOW...850 MB TEMPS STAY ABOVE 0C THROUGH THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK
SO IT APPEARS AS WE WILL AVOID ANOTHER ROUND OF FROZEN/MIXED
PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      26  10  33  18 /  60  05  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    24   3  26  15 /  40  05  05  05
CROSSVILLE     26  12  35  21 /  80  10  05  10
COLUMBIA       25  10  35  19 /  70  05  05  10
LAWRENCEBURG   29  12  38  23 /  70  05  05  10
WAVERLY        24   7  29  16 /  50  05  05  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TNZ005>007-
023>026.

&&

$$

06








000
FXUS64 KMEG 050933
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
333 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY ALL THE PRECIPITATION ON RADAR WAS OF A WINTER
TYPE...WITH SCATTERED AREAS RECEIVING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OR
SLEET. ONLY MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI WAS SEEING A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD BETWEEN THE RAIN AND THE APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER. SNOW
TOTALS HAVE EXCEEDED EVENING FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...SO HAVE UPDATED NEW TOTALS TO 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE I-40
CORRIDOR TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 9 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. NOT SEEING AS MUCH FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...WITH THE CHANGEOVER COMING IN AS SLEET AND SNOW. SO
MAY HAVE TO UPDATE AGAIN BY SUNRISE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. HAVE
NOT CHANGED THE TIMING OF THE WSW TO END THE STORM EARLY...AS LZK
RADAR RETURNS SHOWS SNOW STILL TO THE WEST...AND IR SATELLITE
SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAA CONVEYOR BELT IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 9 AM AS
MODELS KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT ALONG...AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE
OFFICE...WITH ADDITIONAL OUTAGES LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING.

LATER TODAY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT APPEARS
THAT CLOUDS WILL EXIT PRETTY FAST FROM LATEST UPSTREAM SATELLITE
TRENDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING THIS EVENING AS
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A WINDCHILL ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA STARTING AT MIDNIGHT AS
VALUES DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

THIS WEEKEND...THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER WILL RESIDE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES WILL PROVIDE TWO GOOD DAYS OF MELTING. OF COURSE THAT
PROCESS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ON FRIDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
EXPECTED LOWS A GOOD 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. A SECOND
WINDCHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINSHOWERS
ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RUN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY..WITH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MOST FAVORED.
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

WINTER PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE NORTHWEST 2/3RDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-
     CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
     LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC-
     PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DYER-GIBSON-
     HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 050933
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
333 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY ALL THE PRECIPITATION ON RADAR WAS OF A WINTER
TYPE...WITH SCATTERED AREAS RECEIVING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OR
SLEET. ONLY MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI WAS SEEING A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD BETWEEN THE RAIN AND THE APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER. SNOW
TOTALS HAVE EXCEEDED EVENING FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...SO HAVE UPDATED NEW TOTALS TO 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE I-40
CORRIDOR TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 9 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. NOT SEEING AS MUCH FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...WITH THE CHANGEOVER COMING IN AS SLEET AND SNOW. SO
MAY HAVE TO UPDATE AGAIN BY SUNRISE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. HAVE
NOT CHANGED THE TIMING OF THE WSW TO END THE STORM EARLY...AS LZK
RADAR RETURNS SHOWS SNOW STILL TO THE WEST...AND IR SATELLITE
SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAA CONVEYOR BELT IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 9 AM AS
MODELS KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT ALONG...AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE
OFFICE...WITH ADDITIONAL OUTAGES LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING.

LATER TODAY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT APPEARS
THAT CLOUDS WILL EXIT PRETTY FAST FROM LATEST UPSTREAM SATELLITE
TRENDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING THIS EVENING AS
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A WINDCHILL ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA STARTING AT MIDNIGHT AS
VALUES DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

THIS WEEKEND...THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER WILL RESIDE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES WILL PROVIDE TWO GOOD DAYS OF MELTING. OF COURSE THAT
PROCESS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ON FRIDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
EXPECTED LOWS A GOOD 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. A SECOND
WINDCHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINSHOWERS
ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RUN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY..WITH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MOST FAVORED.
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

WINTER PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE NORTHWEST 2/3RDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-
     CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
     LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC-
     PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DYER-GIBSON-
     HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 050933
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
333 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY ALL THE PRECIPITATION ON RADAR WAS OF A WINTER
TYPE...WITH SCATTERED AREAS RECEIVING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OR
SLEET. ONLY MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI WAS SEEING A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD BETWEEN THE RAIN AND THE APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER. SNOW
TOTALS HAVE EXCEEDED EVENING FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...SO HAVE UPDATED NEW TOTALS TO 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE I-40
CORRIDOR TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 9 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. NOT SEEING AS MUCH FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...WITH THE CHANGEOVER COMING IN AS SLEET AND SNOW. SO
MAY HAVE TO UPDATE AGAIN BY SUNRISE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. HAVE
NOT CHANGED THE TIMING OF THE WSW TO END THE STORM EARLY...AS LZK
RADAR RETURNS SHOWS SNOW STILL TO THE WEST...AND IR SATELLITE
SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAA CONVEYOR BELT IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 9 AM AS
MODELS KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT ALONG...AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE
OFFICE...WITH ADDITIONAL OUTAGES LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING.

LATER TODAY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT APPEARS
THAT CLOUDS WILL EXIT PRETTY FAST FROM LATEST UPSTREAM SATELLITE
TRENDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING THIS EVENING AS
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A WINDCHILL ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA STARTING AT MIDNIGHT AS
VALUES DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

THIS WEEKEND...THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER WILL RESIDE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES WILL PROVIDE TWO GOOD DAYS OF MELTING. OF COURSE THAT
PROCESS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ON FRIDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
EXPECTED LOWS A GOOD 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. A SECOND
WINDCHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINSHOWERS
ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RUN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY..WITH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MOST FAVORED.
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

WINTER PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE NORTHWEST 2/3RDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-
     CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
     LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC-
     PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DYER-GIBSON-
     HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 050933
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
333 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY ALL THE PRECIPITATION ON RADAR WAS OF A WINTER
TYPE...WITH SCATTERED AREAS RECEIVING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OR
SLEET. ONLY MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI WAS SEEING A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD BETWEEN THE RAIN AND THE APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER. SNOW
TOTALS HAVE EXCEEDED EVENING FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...SO HAVE UPDATED NEW TOTALS TO 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE I-40
CORRIDOR TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 9 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. NOT SEEING AS MUCH FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...WITH THE CHANGEOVER COMING IN AS SLEET AND SNOW. SO
MAY HAVE TO UPDATE AGAIN BY SUNRISE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. HAVE
NOT CHANGED THE TIMING OF THE WSW TO END THE STORM EARLY...AS LZK
RADAR RETURNS SHOWS SNOW STILL TO THE WEST...AND IR SATELLITE
SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAA CONVEYOR BELT IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 9 AM AS
MODELS KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT ALONG...AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE
OFFICE...WITH ADDITIONAL OUTAGES LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING.

LATER TODAY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT APPEARS
THAT CLOUDS WILL EXIT PRETTY FAST FROM LATEST UPSTREAM SATELLITE
TRENDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING THIS EVENING AS
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A WINDCHILL ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA STARTING AT MIDNIGHT AS
VALUES DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

THIS WEEKEND...THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER WILL RESIDE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES WILL PROVIDE TWO GOOD DAYS OF MELTING. OF COURSE THAT
PROCESS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ON FRIDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
EXPECTED LOWS A GOOD 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. A SECOND
WINDCHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINSHOWERS
ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RUN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY..WITH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MOST FAVORED.
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

WINTER PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE NORTHWEST 2/3RDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-
     CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
     LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC-
     PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DYER-GIBSON-
     HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 050933
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
333 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY ALL THE PRECIPITATION ON RADAR WAS OF A WINTER
TYPE...WITH SCATTERED AREAS RECEIVING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OR
SLEET. ONLY MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI WAS SEEING A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD BETWEEN THE RAIN AND THE APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER. SNOW
TOTALS HAVE EXCEEDED EVENING FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...SO HAVE UPDATED NEW TOTALS TO 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE I-40
CORRIDOR TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 9 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. NOT SEEING AS MUCH FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...WITH THE CHANGEOVER COMING IN AS SLEET AND SNOW. SO
MAY HAVE TO UPDATE AGAIN BY SUNRISE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. HAVE
NOT CHANGED THE TIMING OF THE WSW TO END THE STORM EARLY...AS LZK
RADAR RETURNS SHOWS SNOW STILL TO THE WEST...AND IR SATELLITE
SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAA CONVEYOR BELT IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 9 AM AS
MODELS KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT ALONG...AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE
OFFICE...WITH ADDITIONAL OUTAGES LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING.

LATER TODAY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT APPEARS
THAT CLOUDS WILL EXIT PRETTY FAST FROM LATEST UPSTREAM SATELLITE
TRENDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING THIS EVENING AS
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A WINDCHILL ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA STARTING AT MIDNIGHT AS
VALUES DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

THIS WEEKEND...THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER WILL RESIDE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES WILL PROVIDE TWO GOOD DAYS OF MELTING. OF COURSE THAT
PROCESS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ON FRIDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
EXPECTED LOWS A GOOD 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. A SECOND
WINDCHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINSHOWERS
ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RUN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY..WITH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MOST FAVORED.
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

WINTER PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE NORTHWEST 2/3RDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-
     CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
     LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC-
     PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DYER-GIBSON-
     HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 050933
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
333 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY ALL THE PRECIPITATION ON RADAR WAS OF A WINTER
TYPE...WITH SCATTERED AREAS RECEIVING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OR
SLEET. ONLY MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI WAS SEEING A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD BETWEEN THE RAIN AND THE APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER. SNOW
TOTALS HAVE EXCEEDED EVENING FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...SO HAVE UPDATED NEW TOTALS TO 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE I-40
CORRIDOR TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 9 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. NOT SEEING AS MUCH FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...WITH THE CHANGEOVER COMING IN AS SLEET AND SNOW. SO
MAY HAVE TO UPDATE AGAIN BY SUNRISE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. HAVE
NOT CHANGED THE TIMING OF THE WSW TO END THE STORM EARLY...AS LZK
RADAR RETURNS SHOWS SNOW STILL TO THE WEST...AND IR SATELLITE
SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAA CONVEYOR BELT IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 9 AM AS
MODELS KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT ALONG...AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE
OFFICE...WITH ADDITIONAL OUTAGES LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING.

LATER TODAY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT APPEARS
THAT CLOUDS WILL EXIT PRETTY FAST FROM LATEST UPSTREAM SATELLITE
TRENDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING THIS EVENING AS
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A WINDCHILL ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA STARTING AT MIDNIGHT AS
VALUES DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

THIS WEEKEND...THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER WILL RESIDE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES WILL PROVIDE TWO GOOD DAYS OF MELTING. OF COURSE THAT
PROCESS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ON FRIDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
EXPECTED LOWS A GOOD 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. A SECOND
WINDCHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINSHOWERS
ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RUN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY..WITH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MOST FAVORED.
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

WINTER PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE NORTHWEST 2/3RDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-
     CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
     LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC-
     PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DYER-GIBSON-
     HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 050809
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
259 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SNOW MELT COMBINED WITH ONGOING
PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW VA CONTINUES TO CAUSE HIGH RIVER LEVELS
AND LOCAL FLOODING.  VARIOUS FLOOD WATCHES/WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT.  COOLER AIR MOVING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL DURING
THE DAY...AND AS READING DROP BELOW FREEZING...SNOW MELT SHOULD SLOW
SIGNIFICANTLY.  MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE
THE SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION.  AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
MOVE THROUGH.  MUCH COLDER AIR ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL CHANGE
RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN TOWARDS SUNRISE.  ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND
A TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE TN VALLEY...WHILE
UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND UP TO WISE COUNTY VA.  THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...AS THE COLD AIR OVERTAKES THE WARM AIR ALOFT...FREEZING RAIN
WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND/OR SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES ARE EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHERN PLATEAU UP TO SOUTHWEST
VA...AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN TN VALLEY AND LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY.
WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THESE
AREAS.  SNOW SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
A FEW POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW LINGERING OVER THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S
ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
EARLY ON...BUT SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BY THE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME AND MODEL CONSISTENCY IS POOR AS WELL.  FORECAST
CONFIDENCE STARTS OUT HIGHER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT SLIPS BELOW AVERAGE LATE IN THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND.  A WEAK WAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP...MOST
LIKELY MAINLY RAIN IF IT OCCURS...SUNDAY NIGHT...SO WILL CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POP. MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON TIMING OF NEXT
SYSTEM...WITH ECMWF AROUND TUESDAY AND GFS MAINLY WEDNESDAY.  FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS WELL.  THIS PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
ALL RAIN AGAIN GIVEN EXPECTED THERMAL PROFILES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             36  21  46  26 / 100  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  32  17  39  23 / 100  10   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       31  17  42  23 / 100  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              32  14  38  20 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-
     MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

MJB/LW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 050623
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
100 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF ACROSS THE
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VIS FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.  AS THE FRONT MOVES IN TOWARDS
SUNRISE...COLD AIR WILL PUSH IN AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW
FREEZING.  RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO FREEING RAIN FOR THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING HOURS...BECOMING SLEET OR SNOW LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR CONTINUE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.  PRECIP SHOULD END
BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z BUT LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 050623
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
100 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF ACROSS THE
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VIS FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.  AS THE FRONT MOVES IN TOWARDS
SUNRISE...COLD AIR WILL PUSH IN AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW
FREEZING.  RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO FREEING RAIN FOR THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING HOURS...BECOMING SLEET OR SNOW LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR CONTINUE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.  PRECIP SHOULD END
BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z BUT LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 050623
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
100 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF ACROSS THE
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VIS FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.  AS THE FRONT MOVES IN TOWARDS
SUNRISE...COLD AIR WILL PUSH IN AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW
FREEZING.  RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO FREEING RAIN FOR THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING HOURS...BECOMING SLEET OR SNOW LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR CONTINUE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.  PRECIP SHOULD END
BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z BUT LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 050540
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1140 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...
WINTER STORM ONGOING AT MIDEVENING. PRECIP HAS CHANGED OVER TO
SNOW OVER NORTHEAST AR...THROUGH THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHWEST
TN. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WERE OCCURING OVER MO DELTA...WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. JUST NORTH UP THE DELTA INTO SOUTHEAST MO...
AIRPORT OBS WERE REPORTING FEW IF ANY GUSTS. EXPECT WINDS TO
RELAX A BIT OVER BOOTHEEL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FURTHER
EAST...WITH WINDS PREVAILING NEAR 10KTS OVER THE TN RIVER
VALLEY...HAVE CANCELLED WIND ADVISORY THERE.

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH EXPECTED REINFORCING MIDEVENING
FRONTAL SURGE APPROACHING THE I40 CORRIDOR. CONCURRENTLY... THE
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT...
WITH SLEET TRANSITIONING TO DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT NEAR THE I40
CORRIDOR. OVER NORTH MS...ELEVATED ABOVE FREEZING LAYER WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIXTURE OVER NORTH MS.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAJOR WINTER STORM UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID
SOUTH AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH THIS
EVENING...

A LARGE AND NOW PHASED POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS SURGED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE MID SOUTH AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
SURGING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FREEZING LINE NOW EXTENDS FROM
NEAR MEMPHIS TENNESSEE NORTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF JACKSON
TENNESSEE. A LARGE SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
ONGOING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...WITH MAINLY A
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND EVEN SOME SNOW WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW BELOW FREEZING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ALL BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE BY MIDNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MID SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
SLEET ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. AS
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS FROM SLEET OVER TO MORE SNOW...EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS WINDS
GUST IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW. IN SOME LOCATIONS...AN UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
CONDITIONS AND PROVIDE UPDATES/UPGRADES AS OR IF NEEDED. FURTHER
SOUTH TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER...EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI...A
MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY REACH ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
THIS ICING COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN A FEW TREES AND
POWER LINES AND RESULT IN AT LEAST SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES.

A MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY BALLOON LAUNCH TEAM IS CURRENTLY
LAUNCHING AN EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH BALLOON FROM NEAR NWS MEMPHIS.
THE SOUNDING FROM THIS LAUNCH SHOULD BE COMPLETED PRIOR TO 00Z AND
WILL PROVIDE A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL COLD LAYER. THIS SHOULD HELP EVENING SHIFT TO
REFINE PRECIPITATION TYPES IF NEEDED.

SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MID MORNING THURSDAY AND SHOULD END FROM
WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS DUE TO EXISTING DEEP SNOW AND ICE
COVER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND SHOULD
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
POSSIBLY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS WEEKEND IN SOME AREAS. AS
SKIES CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUNGE TO NEAR
ZERO IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHWARD INTO FAR
NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND LOWER TEENS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES
BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD BELOW GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SNOW AND ICE COVER MELTS. WITH THAT STATED...THEY SHOULD WARM SOME
AND BE A RATHER PLEASANT REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WINTER WEATHER.

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MORE
RAIN CHANCES. THE GOOD NEWS HEAR...WARMER!

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

WINTER PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE NORTHWEST 2/3RDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     GREENE-LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-
     CROSS-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-PANOLA-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-
     TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR LAFAYETTE-
     PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DYER-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     SHELBY-TIPTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DYER-GIBSON-
     HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 050540
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1140 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...
WINTER STORM ONGOING AT MIDEVENING. PRECIP HAS CHANGED OVER TO
SNOW OVER NORTHEAST AR...THROUGH THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHWEST
TN. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WERE OCCURING OVER MO DELTA...WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. JUST NORTH UP THE DELTA INTO SOUTHEAST MO...
AIRPORT OBS WERE REPORTING FEW IF ANY GUSTS. EXPECT WINDS TO
RELAX A BIT OVER BOOTHEEL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FURTHER
EAST...WITH WINDS PREVAILING NEAR 10KTS OVER THE TN RIVER
VALLEY...HAVE CANCELLED WIND ADVISORY THERE.

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH EXPECTED REINFORCING MIDEVENING
FRONTAL SURGE APPROACHING THE I40 CORRIDOR. CONCURRENTLY... THE
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT...
WITH SLEET TRANSITIONING TO DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT NEAR THE I40
CORRIDOR. OVER NORTH MS...ELEVATED ABOVE FREEZING LAYER WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIXTURE OVER NORTH MS.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAJOR WINTER STORM UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID
SOUTH AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH THIS
EVENING...

A LARGE AND NOW PHASED POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS SURGED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE MID SOUTH AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
SURGING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FREEZING LINE NOW EXTENDS FROM
NEAR MEMPHIS TENNESSEE NORTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF JACKSON
TENNESSEE. A LARGE SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
ONGOING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...WITH MAINLY A
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND EVEN SOME SNOW WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW BELOW FREEZING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ALL BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE BY MIDNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MID SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
SLEET ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. AS
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS FROM SLEET OVER TO MORE SNOW...EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS WINDS
GUST IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW. IN SOME LOCATIONS...AN UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
CONDITIONS AND PROVIDE UPDATES/UPGRADES AS OR IF NEEDED. FURTHER
SOUTH TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER...EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI...A
MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY REACH ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
THIS ICING COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN A FEW TREES AND
POWER LINES AND RESULT IN AT LEAST SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES.

A MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY BALLOON LAUNCH TEAM IS CURRENTLY
LAUNCHING AN EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH BALLOON FROM NEAR NWS MEMPHIS.
THE SOUNDING FROM THIS LAUNCH SHOULD BE COMPLETED PRIOR TO 00Z AND
WILL PROVIDE A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL COLD LAYER. THIS SHOULD HELP EVENING SHIFT TO
REFINE PRECIPITATION TYPES IF NEEDED.

SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MID MORNING THURSDAY AND SHOULD END FROM
WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS DUE TO EXISTING DEEP SNOW AND ICE
COVER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND SHOULD
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
POSSIBLY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS WEEKEND IN SOME AREAS. AS
SKIES CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUNGE TO NEAR
ZERO IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHWARD INTO FAR
NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND LOWER TEENS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES
BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD BELOW GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SNOW AND ICE COVER MELTS. WITH THAT STATED...THEY SHOULD WARM SOME
AND BE A RATHER PLEASANT REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WINTER WEATHER.

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MORE
RAIN CHANCES. THE GOOD NEWS HEAR...WARMER!

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

WINTER PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE NORTHWEST 2/3RDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     GREENE-LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-
     CROSS-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-PANOLA-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-
     TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR LAFAYETTE-
     PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DYER-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     SHELBY-TIPTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DYER-GIBSON-
     HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 050540
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1140 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...
WINTER STORM ONGOING AT MIDEVENING. PRECIP HAS CHANGED OVER TO
SNOW OVER NORTHEAST AR...THROUGH THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHWEST
TN. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WERE OCCURING OVER MO DELTA...WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. JUST NORTH UP THE DELTA INTO SOUTHEAST MO...
AIRPORT OBS WERE REPORTING FEW IF ANY GUSTS. EXPECT WINDS TO
RELAX A BIT OVER BOOTHEEL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FURTHER
EAST...WITH WINDS PREVAILING NEAR 10KTS OVER THE TN RIVER
VALLEY...HAVE CANCELLED WIND ADVISORY THERE.

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH EXPECTED REINFORCING MIDEVENING
FRONTAL SURGE APPROACHING THE I40 CORRIDOR. CONCURRENTLY... THE
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT...
WITH SLEET TRANSITIONING TO DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT NEAR THE I40
CORRIDOR. OVER NORTH MS...ELEVATED ABOVE FREEZING LAYER WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIXTURE OVER NORTH MS.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAJOR WINTER STORM UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID
SOUTH AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH THIS
EVENING...

A LARGE AND NOW PHASED POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS SURGED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE MID SOUTH AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
SURGING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FREEZING LINE NOW EXTENDS FROM
NEAR MEMPHIS TENNESSEE NORTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF JACKSON
TENNESSEE. A LARGE SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
ONGOING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...WITH MAINLY A
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND EVEN SOME SNOW WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW BELOW FREEZING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ALL BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE BY MIDNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MID SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
SLEET ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. AS
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS FROM SLEET OVER TO MORE SNOW...EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS WINDS
GUST IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW. IN SOME LOCATIONS...AN UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
CONDITIONS AND PROVIDE UPDATES/UPGRADES AS OR IF NEEDED. FURTHER
SOUTH TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER...EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI...A
MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY REACH ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
THIS ICING COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN A FEW TREES AND
POWER LINES AND RESULT IN AT LEAST SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES.

A MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY BALLOON LAUNCH TEAM IS CURRENTLY
LAUNCHING AN EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH BALLOON FROM NEAR NWS MEMPHIS.
THE SOUNDING FROM THIS LAUNCH SHOULD BE COMPLETED PRIOR TO 00Z AND
WILL PROVIDE A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL COLD LAYER. THIS SHOULD HELP EVENING SHIFT TO
REFINE PRECIPITATION TYPES IF NEEDED.

SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MID MORNING THURSDAY AND SHOULD END FROM
WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS DUE TO EXISTING DEEP SNOW AND ICE
COVER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND SHOULD
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
POSSIBLY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS WEEKEND IN SOME AREAS. AS
SKIES CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUNGE TO NEAR
ZERO IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHWARD INTO FAR
NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND LOWER TEENS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES
BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD BELOW GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SNOW AND ICE COVER MELTS. WITH THAT STATED...THEY SHOULD WARM SOME
AND BE A RATHER PLEASANT REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WINTER WEATHER.

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MORE
RAIN CHANCES. THE GOOD NEWS HEAR...WARMER!

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

WINTER PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE NORTHWEST 2/3RDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     GREENE-LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-
     CROSS-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-PANOLA-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-
     TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR LAFAYETTE-
     PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DYER-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     SHELBY-TIPTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DYER-GIBSON-
     HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 050540
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1140 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...
WINTER STORM ONGOING AT MIDEVENING. PRECIP HAS CHANGED OVER TO
SNOW OVER NORTHEAST AR...THROUGH THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHWEST
TN. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WERE OCCURING OVER MO DELTA...WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. JUST NORTH UP THE DELTA INTO SOUTHEAST MO...
AIRPORT OBS WERE REPORTING FEW IF ANY GUSTS. EXPECT WINDS TO
RELAX A BIT OVER BOOTHEEL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FURTHER
EAST...WITH WINDS PREVAILING NEAR 10KTS OVER THE TN RIVER
VALLEY...HAVE CANCELLED WIND ADVISORY THERE.

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH EXPECTED REINFORCING MIDEVENING
FRONTAL SURGE APPROACHING THE I40 CORRIDOR. CONCURRENTLY... THE
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT...
WITH SLEET TRANSITIONING TO DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT NEAR THE I40
CORRIDOR. OVER NORTH MS...ELEVATED ABOVE FREEZING LAYER WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIXTURE OVER NORTH MS.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAJOR WINTER STORM UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID
SOUTH AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH THIS
EVENING...

A LARGE AND NOW PHASED POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS SURGED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE MID SOUTH AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
SURGING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FREEZING LINE NOW EXTENDS FROM
NEAR MEMPHIS TENNESSEE NORTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF JACKSON
TENNESSEE. A LARGE SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
ONGOING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...WITH MAINLY A
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND EVEN SOME SNOW WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW BELOW FREEZING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ALL BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE BY MIDNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MID SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
SLEET ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. AS
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS FROM SLEET OVER TO MORE SNOW...EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS WINDS
GUST IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW. IN SOME LOCATIONS...AN UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
CONDITIONS AND PROVIDE UPDATES/UPGRADES AS OR IF NEEDED. FURTHER
SOUTH TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER...EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI...A
MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY REACH ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
THIS ICING COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN A FEW TREES AND
POWER LINES AND RESULT IN AT LEAST SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES.

A MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY BALLOON LAUNCH TEAM IS CURRENTLY
LAUNCHING AN EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH BALLOON FROM NEAR NWS MEMPHIS.
THE SOUNDING FROM THIS LAUNCH SHOULD BE COMPLETED PRIOR TO 00Z AND
WILL PROVIDE A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL COLD LAYER. THIS SHOULD HELP EVENING SHIFT TO
REFINE PRECIPITATION TYPES IF NEEDED.

SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MID MORNING THURSDAY AND SHOULD END FROM
WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS DUE TO EXISTING DEEP SNOW AND ICE
COVER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND SHOULD
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
POSSIBLY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS WEEKEND IN SOME AREAS. AS
SKIES CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUNGE TO NEAR
ZERO IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHWARD INTO FAR
NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND LOWER TEENS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES
BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD BELOW GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SNOW AND ICE COVER MELTS. WITH THAT STATED...THEY SHOULD WARM SOME
AND BE A RATHER PLEASANT REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WINTER WEATHER.

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MORE
RAIN CHANCES. THE GOOD NEWS HEAR...WARMER!

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

WINTER PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE NORTHWEST 2/3RDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     GREENE-LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-
     CROSS-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-PANOLA-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-
     TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR LAFAYETTE-
     PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DYER-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     SHELBY-TIPTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DYER-GIBSON-
     HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 050540
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1140 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...
WINTER STORM ONGOING AT MIDEVENING. PRECIP HAS CHANGED OVER TO
SNOW OVER NORTHEAST AR...THROUGH THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHWEST
TN. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WERE OCCURING OVER MO DELTA...WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. JUST NORTH UP THE DELTA INTO SOUTHEAST MO...
AIRPORT OBS WERE REPORTING FEW IF ANY GUSTS. EXPECT WINDS TO
RELAX A BIT OVER BOOTHEEL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FURTHER
EAST...WITH WINDS PREVAILING NEAR 10KTS OVER THE TN RIVER
VALLEY...HAVE CANCELLED WIND ADVISORY THERE.

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH EXPECTED REINFORCING MIDEVENING
FRONTAL SURGE APPROACHING THE I40 CORRIDOR. CONCURRENTLY... THE
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT...
WITH SLEET TRANSITIONING TO DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT NEAR THE I40
CORRIDOR. OVER NORTH MS...ELEVATED ABOVE FREEZING LAYER WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIXTURE OVER NORTH MS.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAJOR WINTER STORM UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID
SOUTH AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH THIS
EVENING...

A LARGE AND NOW PHASED POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS SURGED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE MID SOUTH AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
SURGING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FREEZING LINE NOW EXTENDS FROM
NEAR MEMPHIS TENNESSEE NORTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF JACKSON
TENNESSEE. A LARGE SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
ONGOING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...WITH MAINLY A
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND EVEN SOME SNOW WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW BELOW FREEZING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ALL BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE BY MIDNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MID SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
SLEET ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. AS
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS FROM SLEET OVER TO MORE SNOW...EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS WINDS
GUST IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW. IN SOME LOCATIONS...AN UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
CONDITIONS AND PROVIDE UPDATES/UPGRADES AS OR IF NEEDED. FURTHER
SOUTH TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER...EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI...A
MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY REACH ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
THIS ICING COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN A FEW TREES AND
POWER LINES AND RESULT IN AT LEAST SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES.

A MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY BALLOON LAUNCH TEAM IS CURRENTLY
LAUNCHING AN EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH BALLOON FROM NEAR NWS MEMPHIS.
THE SOUNDING FROM THIS LAUNCH SHOULD BE COMPLETED PRIOR TO 00Z AND
WILL PROVIDE A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL COLD LAYER. THIS SHOULD HELP EVENING SHIFT TO
REFINE PRECIPITATION TYPES IF NEEDED.

SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MID MORNING THURSDAY AND SHOULD END FROM
WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS DUE TO EXISTING DEEP SNOW AND ICE
COVER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND SHOULD
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
POSSIBLY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS WEEKEND IN SOME AREAS. AS
SKIES CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUNGE TO NEAR
ZERO IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHWARD INTO FAR
NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND LOWER TEENS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES
BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD BELOW GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SNOW AND ICE COVER MELTS. WITH THAT STATED...THEY SHOULD WARM SOME
AND BE A RATHER PLEASANT REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WINTER WEATHER.

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MORE
RAIN CHANCES. THE GOOD NEWS HEAR...WARMER!

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

WINTER PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE NORTHWEST 2/3RDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     GREENE-LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-
     CROSS-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-PANOLA-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-
     TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR LAFAYETTE-
     PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DYER-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     SHELBY-TIPTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DYER-GIBSON-
     HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 050540
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1140 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...
WINTER STORM ONGOING AT MIDEVENING. PRECIP HAS CHANGED OVER TO
SNOW OVER NORTHEAST AR...THROUGH THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHWEST
TN. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WERE OCCURING OVER MO DELTA...WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. JUST NORTH UP THE DELTA INTO SOUTHEAST MO...
AIRPORT OBS WERE REPORTING FEW IF ANY GUSTS. EXPECT WINDS TO
RELAX A BIT OVER BOOTHEEL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FURTHER
EAST...WITH WINDS PREVAILING NEAR 10KTS OVER THE TN RIVER
VALLEY...HAVE CANCELLED WIND ADVISORY THERE.

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH EXPECTED REINFORCING MIDEVENING
FRONTAL SURGE APPROACHING THE I40 CORRIDOR. CONCURRENTLY... THE
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT...
WITH SLEET TRANSITIONING TO DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT NEAR THE I40
CORRIDOR. OVER NORTH MS...ELEVATED ABOVE FREEZING LAYER WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIXTURE OVER NORTH MS.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAJOR WINTER STORM UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID
SOUTH AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH THIS
EVENING...

A LARGE AND NOW PHASED POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS SURGED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE MID SOUTH AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
SURGING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FREEZING LINE NOW EXTENDS FROM
NEAR MEMPHIS TENNESSEE NORTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF JACKSON
TENNESSEE. A LARGE SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
ONGOING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...WITH MAINLY A
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND EVEN SOME SNOW WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW BELOW FREEZING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ALL BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE BY MIDNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MID SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
SLEET ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. AS
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS FROM SLEET OVER TO MORE SNOW...EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS WINDS
GUST IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW. IN SOME LOCATIONS...AN UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
CONDITIONS AND PROVIDE UPDATES/UPGRADES AS OR IF NEEDED. FURTHER
SOUTH TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER...EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI...A
MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY REACH ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
THIS ICING COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN A FEW TREES AND
POWER LINES AND RESULT IN AT LEAST SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES.

A MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY BALLOON LAUNCH TEAM IS CURRENTLY
LAUNCHING AN EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH BALLOON FROM NEAR NWS MEMPHIS.
THE SOUNDING FROM THIS LAUNCH SHOULD BE COMPLETED PRIOR TO 00Z AND
WILL PROVIDE A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL COLD LAYER. THIS SHOULD HELP EVENING SHIFT TO
REFINE PRECIPITATION TYPES IF NEEDED.

SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MID MORNING THURSDAY AND SHOULD END FROM
WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS DUE TO EXISTING DEEP SNOW AND ICE
COVER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND SHOULD
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
POSSIBLY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS WEEKEND IN SOME AREAS. AS
SKIES CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUNGE TO NEAR
ZERO IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHWARD INTO FAR
NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND LOWER TEENS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES
BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD BELOW GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SNOW AND ICE COVER MELTS. WITH THAT STATED...THEY SHOULD WARM SOME
AND BE A RATHER PLEASANT REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WINTER WEATHER.

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MORE
RAIN CHANCES. THE GOOD NEWS HEAR...WARMER!

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

WINTER PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE NORTHWEST 2/3RDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     GREENE-LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-
     CROSS-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-PANOLA-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-
     TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR LAFAYETTE-
     PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DYER-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     SHELBY-TIPTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DYER-GIBSON-
     HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 050523
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1123 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...FPR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
...POOR FLYING WEATHER THROUGH NOON THURSDAY...

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OUT THE SOUTHWEST UP AND OVER COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE PRODUCING A ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
OVER NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE ARE NEAR 20 DEGREES WITH MIDDLE
30S SOUTHEAST AREAS.

LOOK FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO CONTINUE AT NASHVILLE UNTIL
08Z THEN SNOW THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...FOLLOWED BY FLURRIES...WITH
DECREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTENOON.

AT CLARKSVILLE...SLEET AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE BECOMING HEAVY AT
TIMES BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER 15Z...FOLLOWED BY FLURRIES...WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AT CROSSVILLE...VERY MUCH CONCERNED FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WITH
ICE ACCMUMLATIONS UPWARDS OF 0.25 INCH. LIQUID RAIN AND SLEET
WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AROUND 08Z THEN CHANGING TO
SNOW AROUND 12Z...AND CONTINUES THROUGH 21Z...FOLLOWED BY
FLURRIES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ008>011-
027>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-
023>026.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 050523
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1123 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...FPR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
...POOR FLYING WEATHER THROUGH NOON THURSDAY...

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OUT THE SOUTHWEST UP AND OVER COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE PRODUCING A ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
OVER NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE ARE NEAR 20 DEGREES WITH MIDDLE
30S SOUTHEAST AREAS.

LOOK FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO CONTINUE AT NASHVILLE UNTIL
08Z THEN SNOW THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...FOLLOWED BY FLURRIES...WITH
DECREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTENOON.

AT CLARKSVILLE...SLEET AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE BECOMING HEAVY AT
TIMES BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER 15Z...FOLLOWED BY FLURRIES...WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AT CROSSVILLE...VERY MUCH CONCERNED FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WITH
ICE ACCMUMLATIONS UPWARDS OF 0.25 INCH. LIQUID RAIN AND SLEET
WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AROUND 08Z THEN CHANGING TO
SNOW AROUND 12Z...AND CONTINUES THROUGH 21Z...FOLLOWED BY
FLURRIES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ008>011-
027>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-
023>026.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 050325
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
925 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN WORKING ACROSS THE MID-STATE...WITH
LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF NASHVILLE CURRENTLY IN
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN REGIME...WITH SNOW NOT FAR BEHIND.

SHALLOW COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SLIP SOUTHEAST BEHIND FRONT BUT
NEWEST NAM/RUC DATA SHOWING DEEP WARM NOSE STARTING JUST ABOVE
3KFT HANGING THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE PLATEAU...AND
CHANGE OVER THERE EXPECTED MIDNIGHT TO 3AM. THIS SCENARIO MAY
TRANSLATE TO SLIGHTLY MORE ICING THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...
POSSIBLY AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR HIGHER THROUGH 8 OR 9AM
THU...ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN END.

LOCALS INCLUDING AND WEST/SOUTH OF NASHVILLE EXPECTED TRANSITION
TO SLEET/SNOW LARGELY BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SLIGHTLY
LATER NEAR TO AL BORDER. WHILE ICE AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER THAN
1/4 INCH ON THE PLATEAU...LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT EXPECTED
SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE STILL VERY MUCH IN THE BALLPARK. THE
NORTHWEST AND THE HIGHLAND RIM STILL LOOKING FOR 3-6 INCHES
SNOWFALL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE EXTREME NORTHWEST
COULD SEE POCKETS OF SNOW 6+ VERY EASILY.

CURRENT FORECAST ONLY NEEDS MINOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME. PLAN TO
RAISE ICE ACCUM PLATEAU. TEMPS RUNNING LITTLE COOLER...AND WITH
EXPECTED PCPN OVERNIGHT...WILL LOWER A BIT. WINTER STORM WARNING
CONTINUES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...FOR NASHVILLE AIRPORT

AVIATION...

..A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LOOKS LIKELY THIS EVENING AT
NASHVILLE TERMINAL...

BASED ON LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HAVE UPDATED FORECAST FOR NASHVILLE
TERMINAL BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET BEGINNING AT 02Z WITH
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BECOMING MIXED AT 04Z AND CONTINUING UNTIL
06Z AND POSSIBLY THROUGH 07Z WHEN A SNOW AND SLEET MIX BEGINS IN
NASHVILLE...THEN BECOMING ALL SNOW BY 12Z AND CONTINUING UNTIL 18Z
ON THURSDAY.

AT 01Z DEPTH OF WARM LAYER ON LAPS SOUNDING FOR BNA AT 6K WITH
WARM NOSE AT A +3C WITH MINIMUM TEMP IN THE COLD LAYER AT -4C.
SO IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
DEVELOPING ABOUT MID EVENING IN NASHVILLE AND CONTINUING THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ008>011-
027>034-064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ056>063-075-
077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-
023>026.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 050325
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
925 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN WORKING ACROSS THE MID-STATE...WITH
LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF NASHVILLE CURRENTLY IN
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN REGIME...WITH SNOW NOT FAR BEHIND.

SHALLOW COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SLIP SOUTHEAST BEHIND FRONT BUT
NEWEST NAM/RUC DATA SHOWING DEEP WARM NOSE STARTING JUST ABOVE
3KFT HANGING THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE PLATEAU...AND
CHANGE OVER THERE EXPECTED MIDNIGHT TO 3AM. THIS SCENARIO MAY
TRANSLATE TO SLIGHTLY MORE ICING THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...
POSSIBLY AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR HIGHER THROUGH 8 OR 9AM
THU...ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN END.

LOCALS INCLUDING AND WEST/SOUTH OF NASHVILLE EXPECTED TRANSITION
TO SLEET/SNOW LARGELY BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SLIGHTLY
LATER NEAR TO AL BORDER. WHILE ICE AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER THAN
1/4 INCH ON THE PLATEAU...LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT EXPECTED
SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE STILL VERY MUCH IN THE BALLPARK. THE
NORTHWEST AND THE HIGHLAND RIM STILL LOOKING FOR 3-6 INCHES
SNOWFALL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE EXTREME NORTHWEST
COULD SEE POCKETS OF SNOW 6+ VERY EASILY.

CURRENT FORECAST ONLY NEEDS MINOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME. PLAN TO
RAISE ICE ACCUM PLATEAU. TEMPS RUNNING LITTLE COOLER...AND WITH
EXPECTED PCPN OVERNIGHT...WILL LOWER A BIT. WINTER STORM WARNING
CONTINUES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...FOR NASHVILLE AIRPORT

AVIATION...

..A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LOOKS LIKELY THIS EVENING AT
NASHVILLE TERMINAL...

BASED ON LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HAVE UPDATED FORECAST FOR NASHVILLE
TERMINAL BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET BEGINNING AT 02Z WITH
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BECOMING MIXED AT 04Z AND CONTINUING UNTIL
06Z AND POSSIBLY THROUGH 07Z WHEN A SNOW AND SLEET MIX BEGINS IN
NASHVILLE...THEN BECOMING ALL SNOW BY 12Z AND CONTINUING UNTIL 18Z
ON THURSDAY.

AT 01Z DEPTH OF WARM LAYER ON LAPS SOUNDING FOR BNA AT 6K WITH
WARM NOSE AT A +3C WITH MINIMUM TEMP IN THE COLD LAYER AT -4C.
SO IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
DEVELOPING ABOUT MID EVENING IN NASHVILLE AND CONTINUING THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ008>011-
027>034-064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ056>063-075-
077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-
023>026.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 050325
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
925 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN WORKING ACROSS THE MID-STATE...WITH
LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF NASHVILLE CURRENTLY IN
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN REGIME...WITH SNOW NOT FAR BEHIND.

SHALLOW COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SLIP SOUTHEAST BEHIND FRONT BUT
NEWEST NAM/RUC DATA SHOWING DEEP WARM NOSE STARTING JUST ABOVE
3KFT HANGING THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE PLATEAU...AND
CHANGE OVER THERE EXPECTED MIDNIGHT TO 3AM. THIS SCENARIO MAY
TRANSLATE TO SLIGHTLY MORE ICING THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...
POSSIBLY AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR HIGHER THROUGH 8 OR 9AM
THU...ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN END.

LOCALS INCLUDING AND WEST/SOUTH OF NASHVILLE EXPECTED TRANSITION
TO SLEET/SNOW LARGELY BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SLIGHTLY
LATER NEAR TO AL BORDER. WHILE ICE AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER THAN
1/4 INCH ON THE PLATEAU...LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT EXPECTED
SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE STILL VERY MUCH IN THE BALLPARK. THE
NORTHWEST AND THE HIGHLAND RIM STILL LOOKING FOR 3-6 INCHES
SNOWFALL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE EXTREME NORTHWEST
COULD SEE POCKETS OF SNOW 6+ VERY EASILY.

CURRENT FORECAST ONLY NEEDS MINOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME. PLAN TO
RAISE ICE ACCUM PLATEAU. TEMPS RUNNING LITTLE COOLER...AND WITH
EXPECTED PCPN OVERNIGHT...WILL LOWER A BIT. WINTER STORM WARNING
CONTINUES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...FOR NASHVILLE AIRPORT

AVIATION...

..A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LOOKS LIKELY THIS EVENING AT
NASHVILLE TERMINAL...

BASED ON LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HAVE UPDATED FORECAST FOR NASHVILLE
TERMINAL BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET BEGINNING AT 02Z WITH
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BECOMING MIXED AT 04Z AND CONTINUING UNTIL
06Z AND POSSIBLY THROUGH 07Z WHEN A SNOW AND SLEET MIX BEGINS IN
NASHVILLE...THEN BECOMING ALL SNOW BY 12Z AND CONTINUING UNTIL 18Z
ON THURSDAY.

AT 01Z DEPTH OF WARM LAYER ON LAPS SOUNDING FOR BNA AT 6K WITH
WARM NOSE AT A +3C WITH MINIMUM TEMP IN THE COLD LAYER AT -4C.
SO IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
DEVELOPING ABOUT MID EVENING IN NASHVILLE AND CONTINUING THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ008>011-
027>034-064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ056>063-075-
077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-
023>026.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 050323 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1023 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES FALLING STEADILY THIS EVENING...BUT
STILL WELL ABOVE FREEZING EVEN ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THE NAM MODEL AND LATEST RAP SEEM TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR. THUS...THE WINTRY
WEATHER TIMING LOOKS GOOD...SO I UPDATED THE WSW PRODUCT.

MUCH OF THE RECENT HOUR OR TWO SPENT UPDATING THE FLOOD WATCH AND
ASSOCIATED RIVER FLOOD WARNING PRODUCTS. WILL ALSO UPDATE THE AREAL
FLOOD WARNINGS FOR WISE AND RUSSELL COUNTIES SHORTLY.

OTHERWISE...PLAN TO FRESHEN THE HOURLY GRIDS AND ANY AFFECTED
PRODUCTS BY 11 PM EST OR SO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             34  37  21  42 /  90 100  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  32  35  16  38 /  90 100  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  33  16  38 /  90 100  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              32  35  12  34 /  90 100  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TG



000
FXUS64 KMRX 050323 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1023 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES FALLING STEADILY THIS EVENING...BUT
STILL WELL ABOVE FREEZING EVEN ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THE NAM MODEL AND LATEST RAP SEEM TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR. THUS...THE WINTRY
WEATHER TIMING LOOKS GOOD...SO I UPDATED THE WSW PRODUCT.

MUCH OF THE RECENT HOUR OR TWO SPENT UPDATING THE FLOOD WATCH AND
ASSOCIATED RIVER FLOOD WARNING PRODUCTS. WILL ALSO UPDATE THE AREAL
FLOOD WARNINGS FOR WISE AND RUSSELL COUNTIES SHORTLY.

OTHERWISE...PLAN TO FRESHEN THE HOURLY GRIDS AND ANY AFFECTED
PRODUCTS BY 11 PM EST OR SO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             34  37  21  42 /  90 100  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  32  35  16  38 /  90 100  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  33  16  38 /  90 100  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              32  35  12  34 /  90 100  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMEG 050320 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
920 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
WINTER STORM ONGOING AT MIDEVENING. PRECIP HAS CHANGED OVER TO
SNOW OVER NORTHEAST AR...THROUGH THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHWEST
TN. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WERE OCCURING OVER MO DELTA...WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. JUST NORTH UP THE DELTA INTO SOUTHEAST MO...
AIRPORT OBS WERE REPORTING FEW IF ANY GUSTS. EXPECT WINDS TO
RELAX A BIT OVER BOOTHEEL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FURTHER
EAST...WITH WINDS PREVAILING NEAR 10KTS OVER THE TN RIVER
VALLEY...HAVE CANCELLED WIND ADVISORY THERE.

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH EXPECTED REINFORCING MIDEVENING
FRONTAL SURGE APPROACHING THE I40 CORRIDOR. CONCURRENTLY... THE
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT...
WITH SLEET TRANSITIONING TO DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT NEAR THE I40
CORRIDOR. OVER NORTH MS...ELEVATED ABOVE FREEZING LAYER WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIXTURE OVER NORTH MS.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

.MAJOR WINTER STORM UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID
SOUTH AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH THIS
EVENING...

A LARGE AND NOW PHASED POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS SURGED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE MID SOUTH AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
SURGING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FREEZING LINE NOW EXTENDS FROM
NEAR MEMPHIS TENNESSEE NORTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF JACKSON
TENNESSEE. A LARGE SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
ONGOING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...WITH MAINLY A
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND EVEN SOME SNOW WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW BELOW FREEZING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ALL BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE BY MIDNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MID SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
SLEET ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. AS
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS FROM SLEET OVER TO MORE SNOW...EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS WINDS
GUST IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW. IN SOME LOCATIONS...AN UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
CONDITIONS AND PROVIDE UPDATES/UPGRADES AS OR IF NEEDED. FURTHER
SOUTH TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER...EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI...A
MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY REACH ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
THIS ICING COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN A FEW TREES AND
POWER LINES AND RESULT IN AT LEAST SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES.

A MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY BALLOON LAUNCH TEAM IS CURRENTLY
LAUNCHING AN EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH BALLOON FROM NEAR NWS MEMPHIS.
THE SOUNDING FROM THIS LAUNCH SHOULD BE COMPLETED PRIOR TO 00Z AND
WILL PROVIDE A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL COLD LAYER. THIS SHOULD HELP EVENING SHIFT TO
REFINE PRECIPITATION TYPES IF NEEDED.

SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MID MORNING THURSDAY AND SHOULD END FROM
WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS DUE TO EXISTING DEEP SNOW AND ICE
COVER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND SHOULD
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
POSSIBLY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS WEEKEND IN SOME AREAS. AS
SKIES CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUNGE TO NEAR
ZERO IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHWARD INTO FAR
NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND LOWER TEENS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES
BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD BELOW GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SNOW AND ICE COVER MELTS. WITH THAT STATED...THEY SHOULD WARM SOME
AND BE A RATHER PLEASANT REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WINTER WEATHER.

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MORE
RAIN CHANCES. THE GOOD NEWS HEAR...WARMER!

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

WINTER PRECIPITATION IS NOW OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH CEILINGS RETURNING TO VFR
LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     GREENE-LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-
     CROSS-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-PANOLA-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-
     TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY
     FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR LAFAYETTE-
     PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DYER-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     SHELBY-TIPTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DYER-GIBSON-
     HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 050320 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
920 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
WINTER STORM ONGOING AT MIDEVENING. PRECIP HAS CHANGED OVER TO
SNOW OVER NORTHEAST AR...THROUGH THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHWEST
TN. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WERE OCCURING OVER MO DELTA...WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. JUST NORTH UP THE DELTA INTO SOUTHEAST MO...
AIRPORT OBS WERE REPORTING FEW IF ANY GUSTS. EXPECT WINDS TO
RELAX A BIT OVER BOOTHEEL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FURTHER
EAST...WITH WINDS PREVAILING NEAR 10KTS OVER THE TN RIVER
VALLEY...HAVE CANCELLED WIND ADVISORY THERE.

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH EXPECTED REINFORCING MIDEVENING
FRONTAL SURGE APPROACHING THE I40 CORRIDOR. CONCURRENTLY... THE
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT...
WITH SLEET TRANSITIONING TO DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT NEAR THE I40
CORRIDOR. OVER NORTH MS...ELEVATED ABOVE FREEZING LAYER WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIXTURE OVER NORTH MS.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

.MAJOR WINTER STORM UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID
SOUTH AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH THIS
EVENING...

A LARGE AND NOW PHASED POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS SURGED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE MID SOUTH AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
SURGING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FREEZING LINE NOW EXTENDS FROM
NEAR MEMPHIS TENNESSEE NORTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF JACKSON
TENNESSEE. A LARGE SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
ONGOING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...WITH MAINLY A
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND EVEN SOME SNOW WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW BELOW FREEZING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ALL BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE BY MIDNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MID SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
SLEET ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. AS
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS FROM SLEET OVER TO MORE SNOW...EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS WINDS
GUST IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW. IN SOME LOCATIONS...AN UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
CONDITIONS AND PROVIDE UPDATES/UPGRADES AS OR IF NEEDED. FURTHER
SOUTH TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER...EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI...A
MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY REACH ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
THIS ICING COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN A FEW TREES AND
POWER LINES AND RESULT IN AT LEAST SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES.

A MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY BALLOON LAUNCH TEAM IS CURRENTLY
LAUNCHING AN EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH BALLOON FROM NEAR NWS MEMPHIS.
THE SOUNDING FROM THIS LAUNCH SHOULD BE COMPLETED PRIOR TO 00Z AND
WILL PROVIDE A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL COLD LAYER. THIS SHOULD HELP EVENING SHIFT TO
REFINE PRECIPITATION TYPES IF NEEDED.

SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MID MORNING THURSDAY AND SHOULD END FROM
WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS DUE TO EXISTING DEEP SNOW AND ICE
COVER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND SHOULD
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
POSSIBLY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS WEEKEND IN SOME AREAS. AS
SKIES CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUNGE TO NEAR
ZERO IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHWARD INTO FAR
NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND LOWER TEENS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES
BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD BELOW GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SNOW AND ICE COVER MELTS. WITH THAT STATED...THEY SHOULD WARM SOME
AND BE A RATHER PLEASANT REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WINTER WEATHER.

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MORE
RAIN CHANCES. THE GOOD NEWS HEAR...WARMER!

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

WINTER PRECIPITATION IS NOW OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH CEILINGS RETURNING TO VFR
LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     GREENE-LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-
     CROSS-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-PANOLA-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-
     TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY
     FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR LAFAYETTE-
     PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DYER-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     SHELBY-TIPTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DYER-GIBSON-
     HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 050320 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
920 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
WINTER STORM ONGOING AT MIDEVENING. PRECIP HAS CHANGED OVER TO
SNOW OVER NORTHEAST AR...THROUGH THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHWEST
TN. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WERE OCCURING OVER MO DELTA...WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. JUST NORTH UP THE DELTA INTO SOUTHEAST MO...
AIRPORT OBS WERE REPORTING FEW IF ANY GUSTS. EXPECT WINDS TO
RELAX A BIT OVER BOOTHEEL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FURTHER
EAST...WITH WINDS PREVAILING NEAR 10KTS OVER THE TN RIVER
VALLEY...HAVE CANCELLED WIND ADVISORY THERE.

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH EXPECTED REINFORCING MIDEVENING
FRONTAL SURGE APPROACHING THE I40 CORRIDOR. CONCURRENTLY... THE
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT...
WITH SLEET TRANSITIONING TO DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT NEAR THE I40
CORRIDOR. OVER NORTH MS...ELEVATED ABOVE FREEZING LAYER WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIXTURE OVER NORTH MS.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

.MAJOR WINTER STORM UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID
SOUTH AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH THIS
EVENING...

A LARGE AND NOW PHASED POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS SURGED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE MID SOUTH AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
SURGING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FREEZING LINE NOW EXTENDS FROM
NEAR MEMPHIS TENNESSEE NORTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF JACKSON
TENNESSEE. A LARGE SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
ONGOING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...WITH MAINLY A
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND EVEN SOME SNOW WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW BELOW FREEZING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ALL BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE BY MIDNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MID SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
SLEET ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. AS
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS FROM SLEET OVER TO MORE SNOW...EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS WINDS
GUST IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW. IN SOME LOCATIONS...AN UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
CONDITIONS AND PROVIDE UPDATES/UPGRADES AS OR IF NEEDED. FURTHER
SOUTH TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER...EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI...A
MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY REACH ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
THIS ICING COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN A FEW TREES AND
POWER LINES AND RESULT IN AT LEAST SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES.

A MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY BALLOON LAUNCH TEAM IS CURRENTLY
LAUNCHING AN EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH BALLOON FROM NEAR NWS MEMPHIS.
THE SOUNDING FROM THIS LAUNCH SHOULD BE COMPLETED PRIOR TO 00Z AND
WILL PROVIDE A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL COLD LAYER. THIS SHOULD HELP EVENING SHIFT TO
REFINE PRECIPITATION TYPES IF NEEDED.

SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MID MORNING THURSDAY AND SHOULD END FROM
WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS DUE TO EXISTING DEEP SNOW AND ICE
COVER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND SHOULD
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
POSSIBLY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS WEEKEND IN SOME AREAS. AS
SKIES CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUNGE TO NEAR
ZERO IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHWARD INTO FAR
NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND LOWER TEENS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES
BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD BELOW GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SNOW AND ICE COVER MELTS. WITH THAT STATED...THEY SHOULD WARM SOME
AND BE A RATHER PLEASANT REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WINTER WEATHER.

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MORE
RAIN CHANCES. THE GOOD NEWS HEAR...WARMER!

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

WINTER PRECIPITATION IS NOW OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH CEILINGS RETURNING TO VFR
LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     GREENE-LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-
     CROSS-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-PANOLA-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-
     TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY
     FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR LAFAYETTE-
     PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DYER-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     SHELBY-TIPTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DYER-GIBSON-
     HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 050320 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
920 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
WINTER STORM ONGOING AT MIDEVENING. PRECIP HAS CHANGED OVER TO
SNOW OVER NORTHEAST AR...THROUGH THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHWEST
TN. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WERE OCCURING OVER MO DELTA...WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. JUST NORTH UP THE DELTA INTO SOUTHEAST MO...
AIRPORT OBS WERE REPORTING FEW IF ANY GUSTS. EXPECT WINDS TO
RELAX A BIT OVER BOOTHEEL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FURTHER
EAST...WITH WINDS PREVAILING NEAR 10KTS OVER THE TN RIVER
VALLEY...HAVE CANCELLED WIND ADVISORY THERE.

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH EXPECTED REINFORCING MIDEVENING
FRONTAL SURGE APPROACHING THE I40 CORRIDOR. CONCURRENTLY... THE
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT...
WITH SLEET TRANSITIONING TO DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT NEAR THE I40
CORRIDOR. OVER NORTH MS...ELEVATED ABOVE FREEZING LAYER WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIXTURE OVER NORTH MS.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

.MAJOR WINTER STORM UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID
SOUTH AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH THIS
EVENING...

A LARGE AND NOW PHASED POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS SURGED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE MID SOUTH AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
SURGING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FREEZING LINE NOW EXTENDS FROM
NEAR MEMPHIS TENNESSEE NORTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF JACKSON
TENNESSEE. A LARGE SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
ONGOING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...WITH MAINLY A
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND EVEN SOME SNOW WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW BELOW FREEZING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ALL BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE BY MIDNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MID SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
SLEET ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. AS
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS FROM SLEET OVER TO MORE SNOW...EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS WINDS
GUST IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW. IN SOME LOCATIONS...AN UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
CONDITIONS AND PROVIDE UPDATES/UPGRADES AS OR IF NEEDED. FURTHER
SOUTH TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER...EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI...A
MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY REACH ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
THIS ICING COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN A FEW TREES AND
POWER LINES AND RESULT IN AT LEAST SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES.

A MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY BALLOON LAUNCH TEAM IS CURRENTLY
LAUNCHING AN EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH BALLOON FROM NEAR NWS MEMPHIS.
THE SOUNDING FROM THIS LAUNCH SHOULD BE COMPLETED PRIOR TO 00Z AND
WILL PROVIDE A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL COLD LAYER. THIS SHOULD HELP EVENING SHIFT TO
REFINE PRECIPITATION TYPES IF NEEDED.

SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MID MORNING THURSDAY AND SHOULD END FROM
WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS DUE TO EXISTING DEEP SNOW AND ICE
COVER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND SHOULD
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
POSSIBLY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS WEEKEND IN SOME AREAS. AS
SKIES CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUNGE TO NEAR
ZERO IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHWARD INTO FAR
NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND LOWER TEENS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES
BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD BELOW GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SNOW AND ICE COVER MELTS. WITH THAT STATED...THEY SHOULD WARM SOME
AND BE A RATHER PLEASANT REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WINTER WEATHER.

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MORE
RAIN CHANCES. THE GOOD NEWS HEAR...WARMER!

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

WINTER PRECIPITATION IS NOW OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH CEILINGS RETURNING TO VFR
LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     GREENE-LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-
     CROSS-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-PANOLA-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-
     TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY
     FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR LAFAYETTE-
     PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DYER-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     SHELBY-TIPTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DYER-GIBSON-
     HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 050320 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
920 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
WINTER STORM ONGOING AT MIDEVENING. PRECIP HAS CHANGED OVER TO
SNOW OVER NORTHEAST AR...THROUGH THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHWEST
TN. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WERE OCCURING OVER MO DELTA...WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. JUST NORTH UP THE DELTA INTO SOUTHEAST MO...
AIRPORT OBS WERE REPORTING FEW IF ANY GUSTS. EXPECT WINDS TO
RELAX A BIT OVER BOOTHEEL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FURTHER
EAST...WITH WINDS PREVAILING NEAR 10KTS OVER THE TN RIVER
VALLEY...HAVE CANCELLED WIND ADVISORY THERE.

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH EXPECTED REINFORCING MIDEVENING
FRONTAL SURGE APPROACHING THE I40 CORRIDOR. CONCURRENTLY... THE
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT...
WITH SLEET TRANSITIONING TO DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT NEAR THE I40
CORRIDOR. OVER NORTH MS...ELEVATED ABOVE FREEZING LAYER WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIXTURE OVER NORTH MS.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

.MAJOR WINTER STORM UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID
SOUTH AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH THIS
EVENING...

A LARGE AND NOW PHASED POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS SURGED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE MID SOUTH AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
SURGING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FREEZING LINE NOW EXTENDS FROM
NEAR MEMPHIS TENNESSEE NORTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF JACKSON
TENNESSEE. A LARGE SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
ONGOING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...WITH MAINLY A
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND EVEN SOME SNOW WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW BELOW FREEZING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ALL BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE BY MIDNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MID SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
SLEET ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. AS
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS FROM SLEET OVER TO MORE SNOW...EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS WINDS
GUST IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW. IN SOME LOCATIONS...AN UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
CONDITIONS AND PROVIDE UPDATES/UPGRADES AS OR IF NEEDED. FURTHER
SOUTH TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER...EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI...A
MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY REACH ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
THIS ICING COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN A FEW TREES AND
POWER LINES AND RESULT IN AT LEAST SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES.

A MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY BALLOON LAUNCH TEAM IS CURRENTLY
LAUNCHING AN EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH BALLOON FROM NEAR NWS MEMPHIS.
THE SOUNDING FROM THIS LAUNCH SHOULD BE COMPLETED PRIOR TO 00Z AND
WILL PROVIDE A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL COLD LAYER. THIS SHOULD HELP EVENING SHIFT TO
REFINE PRECIPITATION TYPES IF NEEDED.

SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MID MORNING THURSDAY AND SHOULD END FROM
WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS DUE TO EXISTING DEEP SNOW AND ICE
COVER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND SHOULD
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
POSSIBLY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS WEEKEND IN SOME AREAS. AS
SKIES CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUNGE TO NEAR
ZERO IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHWARD INTO FAR
NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND LOWER TEENS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES
BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD BELOW GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SNOW AND ICE COVER MELTS. WITH THAT STATED...THEY SHOULD WARM SOME
AND BE A RATHER PLEASANT REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WINTER WEATHER.

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MORE
RAIN CHANCES. THE GOOD NEWS HEAR...WARMER!

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

WINTER PRECIPITATION IS NOW OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH CEILINGS RETURNING TO VFR
LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     GREENE-LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-
     CROSS-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-PANOLA-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-
     TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY
     FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR LAFAYETTE-
     PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DYER-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     SHELBY-TIPTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DYER-GIBSON-
     HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 050240
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
840 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...FOR CLARKSVILLE AND CROSSVILLE WINTER PRECIP

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE UPDATED CLARKSVILLE`S FORECAST TO KEEP A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW
UNTIL 04Z THEN ALL SNOW THROUGH 15Z THEN TAPERING TO FLURRIES. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

NOW...HERE`S A CHANGE THAT IS OF CONCERN. HAVE LIQUID RAIN AT
CROSSVILLE THROUGH 08Z THEN FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET UNTIL 14Z.
THAT IS 6 HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN (GLAZE ON SURFACES). ALL SNOW
AFTER 14Z AT CROSSVILLE. MODELS ARE MORE IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE
FREEZING RAIN SCNARIO AT CROSSVILLE SO CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN EARLIER DISCUSSIONS INDICATED.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ008>011-
027>034-064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ056>063-075-
077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-
023>026.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 050240
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
840 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...FOR CLARKSVILLE AND CROSSVILLE WINTER PRECIP

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE UPDATED CLARKSVILLE`S FORECAST TO KEEP A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW
UNTIL 04Z THEN ALL SNOW THROUGH 15Z THEN TAPERING TO FLURRIES. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

NOW...HERE`S A CHANGE THAT IS OF CONCERN. HAVE LIQUID RAIN AT
CROSSVILLE THROUGH 08Z THEN FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET UNTIL 14Z.
THAT IS 6 HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN (GLAZE ON SURFACES). ALL SNOW
AFTER 14Z AT CROSSVILLE. MODELS ARE MORE IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE
FREEZING RAIN SCNARIO AT CROSSVILLE SO CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN EARLIER DISCUSSIONS INDICATED.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ008>011-
027>034-064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ056>063-075-
077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-
023>026.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 050208
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
808 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...FOR NASHVILLE AIRPORT

&&

.AVIATION...

...A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LOOKS LIKELY THIS EVENING AT
NASHVILLE TEMINAL...

BASED ON LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HAVE UPDATED FORECAST FOR NASHVILLE
TERMINAL BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET BEGINNING AT 02Z WITH
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BECOMING MIXED AT 04Z AND CONTINUING UNTIL
06Z AND POSSIBLY THROUGH 07Z WHEN A SNOW AND SLEET MIX BEGINS IN
NASHVILLE...THEN BECOMING ALL SNOW BY 12Z AND CONTINUING UNTIL 18Z
ON THURSDAY.

AT 01Z DEPTH OF WARM LAYER ON LAPS SOUNDING FOR BNA AT 6K WITH
WARM NOSE AT A +3C WITH MINIMUM TEMP IN THE COLD LAYER AT -4C.
SO IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
DEVELOPING ABOUT MID EVENING IN NASHVILLE AND CONTINUING THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ008>011-
027>034-064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ056>063-075-
077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-
023>026.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 050208
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
808 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...FOR NASHVILLE AIRPORT

&&

.AVIATION...

...A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LOOKS LIKELY THIS EVENING AT
NASHVILLE TEMINAL...

BASED ON LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HAVE UPDATED FORECAST FOR NASHVILLE
TERMINAL BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET BEGINNING AT 02Z WITH
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BECOMING MIXED AT 04Z AND CONTINUING UNTIL
06Z AND POSSIBLY THROUGH 07Z WHEN A SNOW AND SLEET MIX BEGINS IN
NASHVILLE...THEN BECOMING ALL SNOW BY 12Z AND CONTINUING UNTIL 18Z
ON THURSDAY.

AT 01Z DEPTH OF WARM LAYER ON LAPS SOUNDING FOR BNA AT 6K WITH
WARM NOSE AT A +3C WITH MINIMUM TEMP IN THE COLD LAYER AT -4C.
SO IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
DEVELOPING ABOUT MID EVENING IN NASHVILLE AND CONTINUING THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ008>011-
027>034-064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ056>063-075-
077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-
023>026.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 050024
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
624 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...

...VERY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS...

MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS OLD
MEXICO INTO THE OHIO AND UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEYS. LEADING EDGE OF
WINTER WEATHER NOW IN NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND WILL CRAWL
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOWING
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AT CLARKSVILLE WITH RAIN AT NASHVILLE AND
CROSSVILLE.

EXPECT THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO CHANGE TO SNOW AT CLARKSIVLLE
BY 02Z AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SIGINIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AT
OUTLAW FIELD. SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL END AROUND 15Z THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY FLURRIES. LOOK FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT NASHVILLE LOOK FOR THE RAIN TO BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET BETWEEN
01Z-02Z BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SLEET AROUND 02Z...THEN MIX WITH
SNOW BETWEEN 04Z-08Z...THEN CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AFTER 08Z WITH SNOW
CONTINUING THROUGH 15Z. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
AT NASHVILLE JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT ABOUT AN HOUR.

THERES A DEEP WARM LAYER AT CROSSVILLE ON THE ORDER OF 8K WITH A
+8 CELSIUS TEMPS ON THE WARM NOSE AT 03Z. BY 06Z WARM LAYER IS
STILL DEEP WITH +8 ON THE NOSE WITH SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 32 DEGREES
AND GETTING COLDER WITH A MINIMUM COLD LAYER AT -4 CELSIUS SO
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FROM 03Z TO 09Z THEN A CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW 09Z-12Z WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

LOW CONFIDENCE ON FREEZING RAIN DURATION AT ANY OF THE FORECAST
LOCATIONS.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ008>011-
027>034-064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-
023>026.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 050024
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
624 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...

...VERY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS...

MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS OLD
MEXICO INTO THE OHIO AND UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEYS. LEADING EDGE OF
WINTER WEATHER NOW IN NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND WILL CRAWL
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOWING
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AT CLARKSVILLE WITH RAIN AT NASHVILLE AND
CROSSVILLE.

EXPECT THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO CHANGE TO SNOW AT CLARKSIVLLE
BY 02Z AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SIGINIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AT
OUTLAW FIELD. SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL END AROUND 15Z THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY FLURRIES. LOOK FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT NASHVILLE LOOK FOR THE RAIN TO BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET BETWEEN
01Z-02Z BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SLEET AROUND 02Z...THEN MIX WITH
SNOW BETWEEN 04Z-08Z...THEN CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AFTER 08Z WITH SNOW
CONTINUING THROUGH 15Z. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
AT NASHVILLE JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT ABOUT AN HOUR.

THERES A DEEP WARM LAYER AT CROSSVILLE ON THE ORDER OF 8K WITH A
+8 CELSIUS TEMPS ON THE WARM NOSE AT 03Z. BY 06Z WARM LAYER IS
STILL DEEP WITH +8 ON THE NOSE WITH SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 32 DEGREES
AND GETTING COLDER WITH A MINIMUM COLD LAYER AT -4 CELSIUS SO
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FROM 03Z TO 09Z THEN A CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW 09Z-12Z WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

LOW CONFIDENCE ON FREEZING RAIN DURATION AT ANY OF THE FORECAST
LOCATIONS.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ008>011-
027>034-064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-
023>026.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 050024
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
624 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...

...VERY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS...

MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS OLD
MEXICO INTO THE OHIO AND UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEYS. LEADING EDGE OF
WINTER WEATHER NOW IN NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND WILL CRAWL
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOWING
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AT CLARKSVILLE WITH RAIN AT NASHVILLE AND
CROSSVILLE.

EXPECT THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO CHANGE TO SNOW AT CLARKSIVLLE
BY 02Z AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SIGINIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AT
OUTLAW FIELD. SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL END AROUND 15Z THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY FLURRIES. LOOK FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT NASHVILLE LOOK FOR THE RAIN TO BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET BETWEEN
01Z-02Z BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SLEET AROUND 02Z...THEN MIX WITH
SNOW BETWEEN 04Z-08Z...THEN CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AFTER 08Z WITH SNOW
CONTINUING THROUGH 15Z. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
AT NASHVILLE JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT ABOUT AN HOUR.

THERES A DEEP WARM LAYER AT CROSSVILLE ON THE ORDER OF 8K WITH A
+8 CELSIUS TEMPS ON THE WARM NOSE AT 03Z. BY 06Z WARM LAYER IS
STILL DEEP WITH +8 ON THE NOSE WITH SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 32 DEGREES
AND GETTING COLDER WITH A MINIMUM COLD LAYER AT -4 CELSIUS SO
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FROM 03Z TO 09Z THEN A CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW 09Z-12Z WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

LOW CONFIDENCE ON FREEZING RAIN DURATION AT ANY OF THE FORECAST
LOCATIONS.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ008>011-
027>034-064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-
023>026.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 050024
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
624 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...

...VERY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS...

MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS OLD
MEXICO INTO THE OHIO AND UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEYS. LEADING EDGE OF
WINTER WEATHER NOW IN NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND WILL CRAWL
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOWING
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AT CLARKSVILLE WITH RAIN AT NASHVILLE AND
CROSSVILLE.

EXPECT THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO CHANGE TO SNOW AT CLARKSIVLLE
BY 02Z AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SIGINIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AT
OUTLAW FIELD. SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL END AROUND 15Z THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY FLURRIES. LOOK FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT NASHVILLE LOOK FOR THE RAIN TO BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET BETWEEN
01Z-02Z BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SLEET AROUND 02Z...THEN MIX WITH
SNOW BETWEEN 04Z-08Z...THEN CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AFTER 08Z WITH SNOW
CONTINUING THROUGH 15Z. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
AT NASHVILLE JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT ABOUT AN HOUR.

THERES A DEEP WARM LAYER AT CROSSVILLE ON THE ORDER OF 8K WITH A
+8 CELSIUS TEMPS ON THE WARM NOSE AT 03Z. BY 06Z WARM LAYER IS
STILL DEEP WITH +8 ON THE NOSE WITH SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 32 DEGREES
AND GETTING COLDER WITH A MINIMUM COLD LAYER AT -4 CELSIUS SO
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FROM 03Z TO 09Z THEN A CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW 09Z-12Z WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

LOW CONFIDENCE ON FREEZING RAIN DURATION AT ANY OF THE FORECAST
LOCATIONS.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ008>011-
027>034-064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-
023>026.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KMRX 050014 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
714 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...A QUICK UPDATE TO DROP THE WIND ADVISORY. OTHERWISE
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS CONTINUE TO MOVE NE ACROSS AREAS
MAINLY NORTH OF I-40 AND I-81. SPOTTY HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING FROM
NE AL INTO SE TN AT THIS TIME.

VERY MILD TEMPS AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS...AND HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEW POINT TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARDS...BY SEVERAL DEGREES BASED
ON 7PM EST VALUES.

PLAN TO UPDATE AGAIN TOWARD 1030 OR 11 PM EST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             34  37  21  42 /  90 100  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  32  35  16  38 /  90 100  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  33  16  38 /  90 100  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              32  35  12  34 /  90 100  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TG



000
FXUS64 KMRX 050014 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
714 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...A QUICK UPDATE TO DROP THE WIND ADVISORY. OTHERWISE
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS CONTINUE TO MOVE NE ACROSS AREAS
MAINLY NORTH OF I-40 AND I-81. SPOTTY HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING FROM
NE AL INTO SE TN AT THIS TIME.

VERY MILD TEMPS AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS...AND HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEW POINT TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARDS...BY SEVERAL DEGREES BASED
ON 7PM EST VALUES.

PLAN TO UPDATE AGAIN TOWARD 1030 OR 11 PM EST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             34  37  21  42 /  90 100  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  32  35  16  38 /  90 100  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  33  16  38 /  90 100  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              32  35  12  34 /  90 100  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TG



000
FXUS64 KMRX 042351
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
651 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...BAND OF SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT IS
EDGING INTO GREAT VALLEY THIS EVENING. DETERIORATING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MVFR BECOMING IFR CATEGORY.
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP WILL TAKE A WHILE TO DEVELOP AWAITING THE
COLDEST AIR SPILLING OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 042351
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
651 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...BAND OF SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT IS
EDGING INTO GREAT VALLEY THIS EVENING. DETERIORATING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MVFR BECOMING IFR CATEGORY.
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP WILL TAKE A WHILE TO DEVELOP AWAITING THE
COLDEST AIR SPILLING OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 042351
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
651 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...BAND OF SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT IS
EDGING INTO GREAT VALLEY THIS EVENING. DETERIORATING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MVFR BECOMING IFR CATEGORY.
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP WILL TAKE A WHILE TO DEVELOP AWAITING THE
COLDEST AIR SPILLING OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 042351
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
651 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...BAND OF SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT IS
EDGING INTO GREAT VALLEY THIS EVENING. DETERIORATING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MVFR BECOMING IFR CATEGORY.
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP WILL TAKE A WHILE TO DEVELOP AWAITING THE
COLDEST AIR SPILLING OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 042351
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
651 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...BAND OF SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT IS
EDGING INTO GREAT VALLEY THIS EVENING. DETERIORATING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MVFR BECOMING IFR CATEGORY.
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP WILL TAKE A WHILE TO DEVELOP AWAITING THE
COLDEST AIR SPILLING OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 042351
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
651 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...BAND OF SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT IS
EDGING INTO GREAT VALLEY THIS EVENING. DETERIORATING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MVFR BECOMING IFR CATEGORY.
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP WILL TAKE A WHILE TO DEVELOP AWAITING THE
COLDEST AIR SPILLING OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 042337
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
537 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

..MAJOR WINTER STORM UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID
SOUTH AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH THIS
EVENING...

A LARGE AND NOW PHASED POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS SURGED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE MID SOUTH AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
SURGING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FREEZING LINE NOW EXTENDS FROM
NEAR MEMPHIS TENNESSEE NORTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF JACKSON
TENNESSEE. A LARGE SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
ONGOING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...WITH MAINLY A
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND EVEN SOME SNOW WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW BELOW FREEZING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ALL BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE BY MIDNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MID SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
SLEET ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. AS
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS FROM SLEET OVER TO MORE SNOW...EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS WINDS
GUST IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW. IN SOME LOCATIONS...AN UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
CONDITIONS AND PROVIDE UPDATES/UPGRADES AS OR IF NEEDED. FURTHER
SOUTH TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER...EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI...A
MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY REACH ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
THIS ICING COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN A FEW TREES AND
POWER LINES AND RESULT IN AT LEAST SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES.

A MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY BALLOON LAUNCH TEAM IS CURRENTLY
LAUNCHING AN EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH BALLOON FROM NEAR NWS MEMPHIS.
THE SOUNDING FROM THIS LAUNCH SHOULD BE COMPLETED PRIOR TO 00Z AND
WILL PROVIDE A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL COLD LAYER. THIS SHOULD HELP EVENING SHIFT TO
REFINE PRECIPITATION TYPES IF NEEDED.

SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MID MORNING THURSDAY AND SHOULD END FROM
WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS DUE TO EXISTING DEEP SNOW AND ICE
COVER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND SHOULD
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
POSSIBLY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS WEEKEND IN SOME AREAS. AS
SKIES CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUNGE TO NEAR
ZERO IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHWARD INTO FAR
NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND LOWER TEENS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES
BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD BELOW GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SNOW AND ICE COVER MELTS. WITH THAT STATED...THEY SHOULD WARM SOME
AND BE A RATHER PLEASANT REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WINTER WEATHER.

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MORE
RAIN CHANCES. THE GOOD NEWS HEAR...WARMER!

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

WINTER PRECIPITATION IS NOW OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH CEILINGS RETURNING TO VFR
LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE
     AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-
     TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY
     FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY
     FOR LAFAYETTE-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 042337
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
537 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

..MAJOR WINTER STORM UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID
SOUTH AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH THIS
EVENING...

A LARGE AND NOW PHASED POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS SURGED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE MID SOUTH AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
SURGING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FREEZING LINE NOW EXTENDS FROM
NEAR MEMPHIS TENNESSEE NORTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF JACKSON
TENNESSEE. A LARGE SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
ONGOING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...WITH MAINLY A
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND EVEN SOME SNOW WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW BELOW FREEZING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ALL BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE BY MIDNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MID SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
SLEET ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. AS
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS FROM SLEET OVER TO MORE SNOW...EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS WINDS
GUST IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW. IN SOME LOCATIONS...AN UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
CONDITIONS AND PROVIDE UPDATES/UPGRADES AS OR IF NEEDED. FURTHER
SOUTH TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER...EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI...A
MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY REACH ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
THIS ICING COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN A FEW TREES AND
POWER LINES AND RESULT IN AT LEAST SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES.

A MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY BALLOON LAUNCH TEAM IS CURRENTLY
LAUNCHING AN EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH BALLOON FROM NEAR NWS MEMPHIS.
THE SOUNDING FROM THIS LAUNCH SHOULD BE COMPLETED PRIOR TO 00Z AND
WILL PROVIDE A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL COLD LAYER. THIS SHOULD HELP EVENING SHIFT TO
REFINE PRECIPITATION TYPES IF NEEDED.

SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MID MORNING THURSDAY AND SHOULD END FROM
WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS DUE TO EXISTING DEEP SNOW AND ICE
COVER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND SHOULD
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
POSSIBLY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS WEEKEND IN SOME AREAS. AS
SKIES CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUNGE TO NEAR
ZERO IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHWARD INTO FAR
NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND LOWER TEENS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES
BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD BELOW GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SNOW AND ICE COVER MELTS. WITH THAT STATED...THEY SHOULD WARM SOME
AND BE A RATHER PLEASANT REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WINTER WEATHER.

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MORE
RAIN CHANCES. THE GOOD NEWS HEAR...WARMER!

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

WINTER PRECIPITATION IS NOW OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH CEILINGS RETURNING TO VFR
LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE
     AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-
     TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY
     FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY
     FOR LAFAYETTE-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 042337
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
537 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

..MAJOR WINTER STORM UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID
SOUTH AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH THIS
EVENING...

A LARGE AND NOW PHASED POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS SURGED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE MID SOUTH AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
SURGING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FREEZING LINE NOW EXTENDS FROM
NEAR MEMPHIS TENNESSEE NORTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF JACKSON
TENNESSEE. A LARGE SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
ONGOING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...WITH MAINLY A
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND EVEN SOME SNOW WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW BELOW FREEZING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ALL BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE BY MIDNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MID SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
SLEET ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. AS
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS FROM SLEET OVER TO MORE SNOW...EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS WINDS
GUST IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW. IN SOME LOCATIONS...AN UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
CONDITIONS AND PROVIDE UPDATES/UPGRADES AS OR IF NEEDED. FURTHER
SOUTH TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER...EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI...A
MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY REACH ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
THIS ICING COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN A FEW TREES AND
POWER LINES AND RESULT IN AT LEAST SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES.

A MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY BALLOON LAUNCH TEAM IS CURRENTLY
LAUNCHING AN EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH BALLOON FROM NEAR NWS MEMPHIS.
THE SOUNDING FROM THIS LAUNCH SHOULD BE COMPLETED PRIOR TO 00Z AND
WILL PROVIDE A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL COLD LAYER. THIS SHOULD HELP EVENING SHIFT TO
REFINE PRECIPITATION TYPES IF NEEDED.

SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MID MORNING THURSDAY AND SHOULD END FROM
WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS DUE TO EXISTING DEEP SNOW AND ICE
COVER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND SHOULD
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
POSSIBLY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS WEEKEND IN SOME AREAS. AS
SKIES CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUNGE TO NEAR
ZERO IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHWARD INTO FAR
NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND LOWER TEENS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES
BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD BELOW GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SNOW AND ICE COVER MELTS. WITH THAT STATED...THEY SHOULD WARM SOME
AND BE A RATHER PLEASANT REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WINTER WEATHER.

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MORE
RAIN CHANCES. THE GOOD NEWS HEAR...WARMER!

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

WINTER PRECIPITATION IS NOW OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH CEILINGS RETURNING TO VFR
LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE
     AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-
     TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY
     FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY
     FOR LAFAYETTE-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 042337
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
537 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

..MAJOR WINTER STORM UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID
SOUTH AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH THIS
EVENING...

A LARGE AND NOW PHASED POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS SURGED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE MID SOUTH AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
SURGING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FREEZING LINE NOW EXTENDS FROM
NEAR MEMPHIS TENNESSEE NORTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF JACKSON
TENNESSEE. A LARGE SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
ONGOING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...WITH MAINLY A
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND EVEN SOME SNOW WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW BELOW FREEZING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ALL BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE BY MIDNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MID SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
SLEET ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. AS
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS FROM SLEET OVER TO MORE SNOW...EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS WINDS
GUST IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW. IN SOME LOCATIONS...AN UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
CONDITIONS AND PROVIDE UPDATES/UPGRADES AS OR IF NEEDED. FURTHER
SOUTH TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER...EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI...A
MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY REACH ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
THIS ICING COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN A FEW TREES AND
POWER LINES AND RESULT IN AT LEAST SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES.

A MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY BALLOON LAUNCH TEAM IS CURRENTLY
LAUNCHING AN EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH BALLOON FROM NEAR NWS MEMPHIS.
THE SOUNDING FROM THIS LAUNCH SHOULD BE COMPLETED PRIOR TO 00Z AND
WILL PROVIDE A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL COLD LAYER. THIS SHOULD HELP EVENING SHIFT TO
REFINE PRECIPITATION TYPES IF NEEDED.

SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MID MORNING THURSDAY AND SHOULD END FROM
WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS DUE TO EXISTING DEEP SNOW AND ICE
COVER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND SHOULD
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
POSSIBLY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS WEEKEND IN SOME AREAS. AS
SKIES CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUNGE TO NEAR
ZERO IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHWARD INTO FAR
NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND LOWER TEENS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES
BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD BELOW GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SNOW AND ICE COVER MELTS. WITH THAT STATED...THEY SHOULD WARM SOME
AND BE A RATHER PLEASANT REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WINTER WEATHER.

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MORE
RAIN CHANCES. THE GOOD NEWS HEAR...WARMER!

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

WINTER PRECIPITATION IS NOW OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH CEILINGS RETURNING TO VFR
LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE
     AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-
     TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY
     FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY
     FOR LAFAYETTE-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 042243
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
443 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...MAJOR WINTER STORM UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID
SOUTH AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH THIS
EVENING...

A LARGE AND NOW PHASED POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS SURGED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE MID SOUTH AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
SURGING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FREEZING LINE NOW EXTENDS FROM
NEAR MEMPHIS TENNESSEE NORTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF JACKSON
TENNESSEE. A LARGE SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
ONGOING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...WITH MAINLY A
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND EVEN SOME SNOW WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW BELOW FREEZING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ALL BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE BY MIDNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MID SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
SLEET ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. AS
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS FROM SLEET OVER TO MORE SNOW...EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS WINDS
GUST IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW. IN SOME LOCATIONS...AN UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
CONDITIONS AND PROVIDE UPDATES/UPGRADES AS OR IF NEEDED. FURTHER
SOUTH TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER...EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI...A
MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY REACH ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
THIS ICING COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN A FEW TREES AND
POWER LINES AND RESULT IN AT LEAST SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES.

A MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY BALLOON LAUNCH TEAM IS CURRENTLY
LAUNCHING AN EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH BALLOON FROM NEAR NWS MEMPHIS.
THE SOUNDING FROM THIS LAUNCH SHOULD BE COMPLETED PRIOR TO 00Z AND
WILL PROVIDE A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL COLD LAYER. THIS SHOULD HELP EVENING SHIFT TO
REFINE PRECIPITATION TYPES IF NEEDED.

SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MID MORNING THURSDAY AND SHOULD END FROM
WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS DUE TO EXISTING DEEP SNOW AND ICE
COVER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND SHOULD
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
POSSIBLY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS WEEKEND IN SOME AREAS. AS
SKIES CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUNGE TO NEAR
ZERO IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHWARD INTO FAR
NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND LOWER TEENS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES
BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD BELOW GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SNOW AND ICE COVER MELTS. WITH THAT STATED...THEY SHOULD WARM SOME
AND BE A RATHER PLEASANT REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WINTER WEATHER.

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MORE
RAIN CHANCES. THE GOOD NEWS HEAR...WARMER!

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO FZRA/SLEET BY 20Z IN KJBR. STILL EXPECT
A CHANGEOVER TO OCCUR IN KMEM AROUND 00Z AND KMKL AROUND 23Z. ONLY
EXPECT AN HOUR OR TWO OF FZRA BEFORE A COMPLETE CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET OCCURS. SLEET WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BETWEEN 3-6Z AT
KJBR...6-9Z AT KMKL AND 9-12Z AT KMEM. MEANWHILE...KTUP WILL SEE
A CHANGE OVER TO FZRA AROUND 6Z AND POSSIBLY A CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET BY 12Z. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL WITH
SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE
     AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-
     TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY
     FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY
     FOR LAFAYETTE-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 042243
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
443 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...MAJOR WINTER STORM UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID
SOUTH AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH THIS
EVENING...

A LARGE AND NOW PHASED POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS SURGED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE MID SOUTH AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
SURGING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FREEZING LINE NOW EXTENDS FROM
NEAR MEMPHIS TENNESSEE NORTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF JACKSON
TENNESSEE. A LARGE SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
ONGOING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...WITH MAINLY A
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND EVEN SOME SNOW WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW BELOW FREEZING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ALL BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE BY MIDNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MID SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
SLEET ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. AS
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS FROM SLEET OVER TO MORE SNOW...EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS WINDS
GUST IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW. IN SOME LOCATIONS...AN UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
CONDITIONS AND PROVIDE UPDATES/UPGRADES AS OR IF NEEDED. FURTHER
SOUTH TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER...EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI...A
MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY REACH ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
THIS ICING COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN A FEW TREES AND
POWER LINES AND RESULT IN AT LEAST SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES.

A MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY BALLOON LAUNCH TEAM IS CURRENTLY
LAUNCHING AN EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH BALLOON FROM NEAR NWS MEMPHIS.
THE SOUNDING FROM THIS LAUNCH SHOULD BE COMPLETED PRIOR TO 00Z AND
WILL PROVIDE A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL COLD LAYER. THIS SHOULD HELP EVENING SHIFT TO
REFINE PRECIPITATION TYPES IF NEEDED.

SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MID MORNING THURSDAY AND SHOULD END FROM
WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS DUE TO EXISTING DEEP SNOW AND ICE
COVER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND SHOULD
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
POSSIBLY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS WEEKEND IN SOME AREAS. AS
SKIES CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUNGE TO NEAR
ZERO IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHWARD INTO FAR
NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND LOWER TEENS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES
BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD BELOW GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SNOW AND ICE COVER MELTS. WITH THAT STATED...THEY SHOULD WARM SOME
AND BE A RATHER PLEASANT REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WINTER WEATHER.

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MORE
RAIN CHANCES. THE GOOD NEWS HEAR...WARMER!

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO FZRA/SLEET BY 20Z IN KJBR. STILL EXPECT
A CHANGEOVER TO OCCUR IN KMEM AROUND 00Z AND KMKL AROUND 23Z. ONLY
EXPECT AN HOUR OR TWO OF FZRA BEFORE A COMPLETE CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET OCCURS. SLEET WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BETWEEN 3-6Z AT
KJBR...6-9Z AT KMKL AND 9-12Z AT KMEM. MEANWHILE...KTUP WILL SEE
A CHANGE OVER TO FZRA AROUND 6Z AND POSSIBLY A CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET BY 12Z. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL WITH
SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE
     AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-
     TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY
     FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY
     FOR LAFAYETTE-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 042243
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
443 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...MAJOR WINTER STORM UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID
SOUTH AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH THIS
EVENING...

A LARGE AND NOW PHASED POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS SURGED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE MID SOUTH AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
SURGING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FREEZING LINE NOW EXTENDS FROM
NEAR MEMPHIS TENNESSEE NORTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF JACKSON
TENNESSEE. A LARGE SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
ONGOING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...WITH MAINLY A
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND EVEN SOME SNOW WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW BELOW FREEZING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ALL BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE BY MIDNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MID SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
SLEET ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. AS
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS FROM SLEET OVER TO MORE SNOW...EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS WINDS
GUST IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW. IN SOME LOCATIONS...AN UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
CONDITIONS AND PROVIDE UPDATES/UPGRADES AS OR IF NEEDED. FURTHER
SOUTH TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER...EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI...A
MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY REACH ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
THIS ICING COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN A FEW TREES AND
POWER LINES AND RESULT IN AT LEAST SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES.

A MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY BALLOON LAUNCH TEAM IS CURRENTLY
LAUNCHING AN EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH BALLOON FROM NEAR NWS MEMPHIS.
THE SOUNDING FROM THIS LAUNCH SHOULD BE COMPLETED PRIOR TO 00Z AND
WILL PROVIDE A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL COLD LAYER. THIS SHOULD HELP EVENING SHIFT TO
REFINE PRECIPITATION TYPES IF NEEDED.

SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MID MORNING THURSDAY AND SHOULD END FROM
WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS DUE TO EXISTING DEEP SNOW AND ICE
COVER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND SHOULD
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
POSSIBLY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS WEEKEND IN SOME AREAS. AS
SKIES CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUNGE TO NEAR
ZERO IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHWARD INTO FAR
NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND LOWER TEENS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES
BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD BELOW GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SNOW AND ICE COVER MELTS. WITH THAT STATED...THEY SHOULD WARM SOME
AND BE A RATHER PLEASANT REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WINTER WEATHER.

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MORE
RAIN CHANCES. THE GOOD NEWS HEAR...WARMER!

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO FZRA/SLEET BY 20Z IN KJBR. STILL EXPECT
A CHANGEOVER TO OCCUR IN KMEM AROUND 00Z AND KMKL AROUND 23Z. ONLY
EXPECT AN HOUR OR TWO OF FZRA BEFORE A COMPLETE CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET OCCURS. SLEET WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BETWEEN 3-6Z AT
KJBR...6-9Z AT KMKL AND 9-12Z AT KMEM. MEANWHILE...KTUP WILL SEE
A CHANGE OVER TO FZRA AROUND 6Z AND POSSIBLY A CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET BY 12Z. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL WITH
SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE
     AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-
     TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY
     FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY
     FOR LAFAYETTE-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 042243
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
443 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...MAJOR WINTER STORM UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID
SOUTH AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH THIS
EVENING...

A LARGE AND NOW PHASED POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS SURGED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE MID SOUTH AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
SURGING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FREEZING LINE NOW EXTENDS FROM
NEAR MEMPHIS TENNESSEE NORTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF JACKSON
TENNESSEE. A LARGE SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
ONGOING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...WITH MAINLY A
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND EVEN SOME SNOW WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW BELOW FREEZING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ALL BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE BY MIDNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MID SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
SLEET ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. AS
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS FROM SLEET OVER TO MORE SNOW...EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS WINDS
GUST IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW. IN SOME LOCATIONS...AN UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
CONDITIONS AND PROVIDE UPDATES/UPGRADES AS OR IF NEEDED. FURTHER
SOUTH TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER...EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI...A
MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY REACH ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
THIS ICING COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN A FEW TREES AND
POWER LINES AND RESULT IN AT LEAST SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES.

A MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY BALLOON LAUNCH TEAM IS CURRENTLY
LAUNCHING AN EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH BALLOON FROM NEAR NWS MEMPHIS.
THE SOUNDING FROM THIS LAUNCH SHOULD BE COMPLETED PRIOR TO 00Z AND
WILL PROVIDE A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL COLD LAYER. THIS SHOULD HELP EVENING SHIFT TO
REFINE PRECIPITATION TYPES IF NEEDED.

SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MID MORNING THURSDAY AND SHOULD END FROM
WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS DUE TO EXISTING DEEP SNOW AND ICE
COVER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND SHOULD
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
POSSIBLY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS WEEKEND IN SOME AREAS. AS
SKIES CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUNGE TO NEAR
ZERO IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHWARD INTO FAR
NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND LOWER TEENS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES
BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD BELOW GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SNOW AND ICE COVER MELTS. WITH THAT STATED...THEY SHOULD WARM SOME
AND BE A RATHER PLEASANT REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WINTER WEATHER.

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MORE
RAIN CHANCES. THE GOOD NEWS HEAR...WARMER!

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO FZRA/SLEET BY 20Z IN KJBR. STILL EXPECT
A CHANGEOVER TO OCCUR IN KMEM AROUND 00Z AND KMKL AROUND 23Z. ONLY
EXPECT AN HOUR OR TWO OF FZRA BEFORE A COMPLETE CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET OCCURS. SLEET WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BETWEEN 3-6Z AT
KJBR...6-9Z AT KMKL AND 9-12Z AT KMEM. MEANWHILE...KTUP WILL SEE
A CHANGE OVER TO FZRA AROUND 6Z AND POSSIBLY A CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET BY 12Z. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL WITH
SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE
     AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-
     TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY
     FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY
     FOR LAFAYETTE-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 042115
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
315 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TIMING OF THE ONSET FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS SNOW
AMOUNTS REMAIN DIFFICULT FOR THIS FORECAST. KEPT THE FORECAST
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS WITH SOME TWEAKS TO BE DISCUSSED BELOW. STILL
LOOKING FOR AROUND 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES MAINLY SOUTH OF I40. ADDED A BIT OF ICE
ACCUMULATION TO AREAS CLOSE TO THE AL BORDER AT AROUND 2 TENTHS OF
AN INCH OR SO. UPGRADED THE ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AS
WELL TO REFLECT IMPACTS OF THE ADDITIONAL ICE COMBINED WITH SLEET
AND SNOW INTO THURSDAY.

12Z MODELS ARE TRYING TO LINE UP A BIT BETTER...WITH THE GFS
SLOWLY CATCHING UP WITH THE NAM IN TERMS OF SURFACE TEMP TIMING
AND WARM NOSE DEPTH. NAM REMAINS THE WARMEST MODEL IN TERMS OF
SURFACE TEMPS HANGING ON ABOVE FREEZING A BIT LONGER AS WELL AS
HAVING THE STRONGEST WARM NOSE ALOFT...WITH THE SREF NOT TOO FAR
BEHIND. QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO HOW LONG FZRA WILL HANG AROUND
NORTHERN AREAS AS THIS WILL CUT INTO THE SNOW AMOUNTS AND ADD A
BIT TO THE TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO OF ICE IN THE FORECAST.
CURRENTLY...REPORTS SHOW THE FZRA BAND TO BE A BIT THIN...BUT MAY
GROW AS THE COLD AIR RUNS SOUTHEASTWARD FASTER THIS EVENING AND
WARM AIR ALOFT HANGS AROUND. ALSO...THE ONSET OF SLEET FOLLOWING
FZRA MAY ALSO CUT INTO SNOW AMOUNTS IF THE WARM AIR ALOFT HANGS
OUT A BIT LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST. WENT WITH A BLEND FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE PREVIOUS THINKING AS WELL AS
LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

PRECIP TYPE SUMMARY FOR THE EVENT...THE NORTHWEST STILL LOOKS TO
GET THE MOST SNOW AS THEY WILL HAVE THE LONGEST DURATION OF SNOW
AS THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. HAVE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATION IN THE NW NORTH OF I40 AND WEST OF I65 WITH CLOSE TO
7 IN THE FAR NW TIP OF THE CWA WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH THE
NEIGHBORS AND IS JUST SHORT OF WPC THINKING. THE BULK OF THE CWA
LOOKS TO HAVE MAINLY SLEET DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENT
SURROUNDED BY FZRA AND A MIX IN THE BEGINNING OF THE FROZEN
TRANSITION IN THE EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND
MAINLY SNOW WITH SOME SLEET MIXED IN STARTING BEFORE SUNRISE. MOST
OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER END BEING
CLOSER TO THE KY BORDER AND I65. NEAR THE AL BORDER AND AROUND
CROSSVILLE SHOULD SEE MAINLY FZRA AND SLEET WHEN THE FROZEN PRECIP
ARRIVES...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST GUIDANCE. SNOW SHOULD MOVE
IN DURING THE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN
AREAS. BROUGHT SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN JUST A BIT BUT ALSO INCREASED ICE
ACCUM TO A RANGE BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER FOR THIS AREA. 1 TO
3 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THIS AREA AS
WELL. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE COLD AIR MOVING
SOUTHWARD AND WARM AIR LINGERING ALOFT...PRECIP TYPES MAY VARY AND
MODIFY SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE EXTENDED...STILL LOOKS COLD FOR THE FIRST
PERIOD AFTER THE EVENT AS COLD AIR STICKS AROUND. DOESNT LOOK AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS FORECAST HOWEVER SNOW/SLEET/ICE AT THE SURFACE
WITH CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY MORNING MAY ALLOW FOR SINGLE DIGIT LOWS
ACROSS THE AREA. FORTUNATELY BELOW ZERO 850 MB TEMPS DONT STICK
AROUND LONG...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD MELT A LOT OF THE FROZEN PRECIP AND
IMPROVE TRAVEL CONDITIONS. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MIDDLE TN
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      23  27  10  34 / 100  60  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    19  24   4  30 / 100  40  05  05
CROSSVILLE     23  24  11  35 / 100  80  10  05
COLUMBIA       23  27  11  35 / 100  70  05  05
LAWRENCEBURG   23  29  13  36 / 100  70  05  05
WAVERLY        20  26   7  33 / 100  50  05  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-
023>026.

&&

$$

BARNWELL






000
FXUS64 KOHX 042115
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
315 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TIMING OF THE ONSET FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS SNOW
AMOUNTS REMAIN DIFFICULT FOR THIS FORECAST. KEPT THE FORECAST
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS WITH SOME TWEAKS TO BE DISCUSSED BELOW. STILL
LOOKING FOR AROUND 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES MAINLY SOUTH OF I40. ADDED A BIT OF ICE
ACCUMULATION TO AREAS CLOSE TO THE AL BORDER AT AROUND 2 TENTHS OF
AN INCH OR SO. UPGRADED THE ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AS
WELL TO REFLECT IMPACTS OF THE ADDITIONAL ICE COMBINED WITH SLEET
AND SNOW INTO THURSDAY.

12Z MODELS ARE TRYING TO LINE UP A BIT BETTER...WITH THE GFS
SLOWLY CATCHING UP WITH THE NAM IN TERMS OF SURFACE TEMP TIMING
AND WARM NOSE DEPTH. NAM REMAINS THE WARMEST MODEL IN TERMS OF
SURFACE TEMPS HANGING ON ABOVE FREEZING A BIT LONGER AS WELL AS
HAVING THE STRONGEST WARM NOSE ALOFT...WITH THE SREF NOT TOO FAR
BEHIND. QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO HOW LONG FZRA WILL HANG AROUND
NORTHERN AREAS AS THIS WILL CUT INTO THE SNOW AMOUNTS AND ADD A
BIT TO THE TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO OF ICE IN THE FORECAST.
CURRENTLY...REPORTS SHOW THE FZRA BAND TO BE A BIT THIN...BUT MAY
GROW AS THE COLD AIR RUNS SOUTHEASTWARD FASTER THIS EVENING AND
WARM AIR ALOFT HANGS AROUND. ALSO...THE ONSET OF SLEET FOLLOWING
FZRA MAY ALSO CUT INTO SNOW AMOUNTS IF THE WARM AIR ALOFT HANGS
OUT A BIT LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST. WENT WITH A BLEND FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE PREVIOUS THINKING AS WELL AS
LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

PRECIP TYPE SUMMARY FOR THE EVENT...THE NORTHWEST STILL LOOKS TO
GET THE MOST SNOW AS THEY WILL HAVE THE LONGEST DURATION OF SNOW
AS THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. HAVE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATION IN THE NW NORTH OF I40 AND WEST OF I65 WITH CLOSE TO
7 IN THE FAR NW TIP OF THE CWA WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH THE
NEIGHBORS AND IS JUST SHORT OF WPC THINKING. THE BULK OF THE CWA
LOOKS TO HAVE MAINLY SLEET DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENT
SURROUNDED BY FZRA AND A MIX IN THE BEGINNING OF THE FROZEN
TRANSITION IN THE EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND
MAINLY SNOW WITH SOME SLEET MIXED IN STARTING BEFORE SUNRISE. MOST
OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER END BEING
CLOSER TO THE KY BORDER AND I65. NEAR THE AL BORDER AND AROUND
CROSSVILLE SHOULD SEE MAINLY FZRA AND SLEET WHEN THE FROZEN PRECIP
ARRIVES...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST GUIDANCE. SNOW SHOULD MOVE
IN DURING THE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN
AREAS. BROUGHT SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN JUST A BIT BUT ALSO INCREASED ICE
ACCUM TO A RANGE BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER FOR THIS AREA. 1 TO
3 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THIS AREA AS
WELL. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE COLD AIR MOVING
SOUTHWARD AND WARM AIR LINGERING ALOFT...PRECIP TYPES MAY VARY AND
MODIFY SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE EXTENDED...STILL LOOKS COLD FOR THE FIRST
PERIOD AFTER THE EVENT AS COLD AIR STICKS AROUND. DOESNT LOOK AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS FORECAST HOWEVER SNOW/SLEET/ICE AT THE SURFACE
WITH CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY MORNING MAY ALLOW FOR SINGLE DIGIT LOWS
ACROSS THE AREA. FORTUNATELY BELOW ZERO 850 MB TEMPS DONT STICK
AROUND LONG...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD MELT A LOT OF THE FROZEN PRECIP AND
IMPROVE TRAVEL CONDITIONS. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MIDDLE TN
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      23  27  10  34 / 100  60  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    19  24   4  30 / 100  40  05  05
CROSSVILLE     23  24  11  35 / 100  80  10  05
COLUMBIA       23  27  11  35 / 100  70  05  05
LAWRENCEBURG   23  29  13  36 / 100  70  05  05
WAVERLY        20  26   7  33 / 100  50  05  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-
023>026.

&&

$$

BARNWELL






000
FXUS64 KOHX 042115
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
315 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TIMING OF THE ONSET FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS SNOW
AMOUNTS REMAIN DIFFICULT FOR THIS FORECAST. KEPT THE FORECAST
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS WITH SOME TWEAKS TO BE DISCUSSED BELOW. STILL
LOOKING FOR AROUND 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES MAINLY SOUTH OF I40. ADDED A BIT OF ICE
ACCUMULATION TO AREAS CLOSE TO THE AL BORDER AT AROUND 2 TENTHS OF
AN INCH OR SO. UPGRADED THE ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AS
WELL TO REFLECT IMPACTS OF THE ADDITIONAL ICE COMBINED WITH SLEET
AND SNOW INTO THURSDAY.

12Z MODELS ARE TRYING TO LINE UP A BIT BETTER...WITH THE GFS
SLOWLY CATCHING UP WITH THE NAM IN TERMS OF SURFACE TEMP TIMING
AND WARM NOSE DEPTH. NAM REMAINS THE WARMEST MODEL IN TERMS OF
SURFACE TEMPS HANGING ON ABOVE FREEZING A BIT LONGER AS WELL AS
HAVING THE STRONGEST WARM NOSE ALOFT...WITH THE SREF NOT TOO FAR
BEHIND. QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO HOW LONG FZRA WILL HANG AROUND
NORTHERN AREAS AS THIS WILL CUT INTO THE SNOW AMOUNTS AND ADD A
BIT TO THE TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO OF ICE IN THE FORECAST.
CURRENTLY...REPORTS SHOW THE FZRA BAND TO BE A BIT THIN...BUT MAY
GROW AS THE COLD AIR RUNS SOUTHEASTWARD FASTER THIS EVENING AND
WARM AIR ALOFT HANGS AROUND. ALSO...THE ONSET OF SLEET FOLLOWING
FZRA MAY ALSO CUT INTO SNOW AMOUNTS IF THE WARM AIR ALOFT HANGS
OUT A BIT LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST. WENT WITH A BLEND FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE PREVIOUS THINKING AS WELL AS
LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

PRECIP TYPE SUMMARY FOR THE EVENT...THE NORTHWEST STILL LOOKS TO
GET THE MOST SNOW AS THEY WILL HAVE THE LONGEST DURATION OF SNOW
AS THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. HAVE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATION IN THE NW NORTH OF I40 AND WEST OF I65 WITH CLOSE TO
7 IN THE FAR NW TIP OF THE CWA WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH THE
NEIGHBORS AND IS JUST SHORT OF WPC THINKING. THE BULK OF THE CWA
LOOKS TO HAVE MAINLY SLEET DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENT
SURROUNDED BY FZRA AND A MIX IN THE BEGINNING OF THE FROZEN
TRANSITION IN THE EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND
MAINLY SNOW WITH SOME SLEET MIXED IN STARTING BEFORE SUNRISE. MOST
OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER END BEING
CLOSER TO THE KY BORDER AND I65. NEAR THE AL BORDER AND AROUND
CROSSVILLE SHOULD SEE MAINLY FZRA AND SLEET WHEN THE FROZEN PRECIP
ARRIVES...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST GUIDANCE. SNOW SHOULD MOVE
IN DURING THE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN
AREAS. BROUGHT SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN JUST A BIT BUT ALSO INCREASED ICE
ACCUM TO A RANGE BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER FOR THIS AREA. 1 TO
3 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THIS AREA AS
WELL. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE COLD AIR MOVING
SOUTHWARD AND WARM AIR LINGERING ALOFT...PRECIP TYPES MAY VARY AND
MODIFY SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE EXTENDED...STILL LOOKS COLD FOR THE FIRST
PERIOD AFTER THE EVENT AS COLD AIR STICKS AROUND. DOESNT LOOK AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS FORECAST HOWEVER SNOW/SLEET/ICE AT THE SURFACE
WITH CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY MORNING MAY ALLOW FOR SINGLE DIGIT LOWS
ACROSS THE AREA. FORTUNATELY BELOW ZERO 850 MB TEMPS DONT STICK
AROUND LONG...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD MELT A LOT OF THE FROZEN PRECIP AND
IMPROVE TRAVEL CONDITIONS. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MIDDLE TN
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      23  27  10  34 / 100  60  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    19  24   4  30 / 100  40  05  05
CROSSVILLE     23  24  11  35 / 100  80  10  05
COLUMBIA       23  27  11  35 / 100  70  05  05
LAWRENCEBURG   23  29  13  36 / 100  70  05  05
WAVERLY        20  26   7  33 / 100  50  05  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-
023>026.

&&

$$

BARNWELL






000
FXUS64 KOHX 042115
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
315 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TIMING OF THE ONSET FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS SNOW
AMOUNTS REMAIN DIFFICULT FOR THIS FORECAST. KEPT THE FORECAST
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS WITH SOME TWEAKS TO BE DISCUSSED BELOW. STILL
LOOKING FOR AROUND 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES MAINLY SOUTH OF I40. ADDED A BIT OF ICE
ACCUMULATION TO AREAS CLOSE TO THE AL BORDER AT AROUND 2 TENTHS OF
AN INCH OR SO. UPGRADED THE ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AS
WELL TO REFLECT IMPACTS OF THE ADDITIONAL ICE COMBINED WITH SLEET
AND SNOW INTO THURSDAY.

12Z MODELS ARE TRYING TO LINE UP A BIT BETTER...WITH THE GFS
SLOWLY CATCHING UP WITH THE NAM IN TERMS OF SURFACE TEMP TIMING
AND WARM NOSE DEPTH. NAM REMAINS THE WARMEST MODEL IN TERMS OF
SURFACE TEMPS HANGING ON ABOVE FREEZING A BIT LONGER AS WELL AS
HAVING THE STRONGEST WARM NOSE ALOFT...WITH THE SREF NOT TOO FAR
BEHIND. QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO HOW LONG FZRA WILL HANG AROUND
NORTHERN AREAS AS THIS WILL CUT INTO THE SNOW AMOUNTS AND ADD A
BIT TO THE TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO OF ICE IN THE FORECAST.
CURRENTLY...REPORTS SHOW THE FZRA BAND TO BE A BIT THIN...BUT MAY
GROW AS THE COLD AIR RUNS SOUTHEASTWARD FASTER THIS EVENING AND
WARM AIR ALOFT HANGS AROUND. ALSO...THE ONSET OF SLEET FOLLOWING
FZRA MAY ALSO CUT INTO SNOW AMOUNTS IF THE WARM AIR ALOFT HANGS
OUT A BIT LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST. WENT WITH A BLEND FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE PREVIOUS THINKING AS WELL AS
LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

PRECIP TYPE SUMMARY FOR THE EVENT...THE NORTHWEST STILL LOOKS TO
GET THE MOST SNOW AS THEY WILL HAVE THE LONGEST DURATION OF SNOW
AS THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. HAVE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATION IN THE NW NORTH OF I40 AND WEST OF I65 WITH CLOSE TO
7 IN THE FAR NW TIP OF THE CWA WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH THE
NEIGHBORS AND IS JUST SHORT OF WPC THINKING. THE BULK OF THE CWA
LOOKS TO HAVE MAINLY SLEET DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENT
SURROUNDED BY FZRA AND A MIX IN THE BEGINNING OF THE FROZEN
TRANSITION IN THE EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND
MAINLY SNOW WITH SOME SLEET MIXED IN STARTING BEFORE SUNRISE. MOST
OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER END BEING
CLOSER TO THE KY BORDER AND I65. NEAR THE AL BORDER AND AROUND
CROSSVILLE SHOULD SEE MAINLY FZRA AND SLEET WHEN THE FROZEN PRECIP
ARRIVES...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST GUIDANCE. SNOW SHOULD MOVE
IN DURING THE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN
AREAS. BROUGHT SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN JUST A BIT BUT ALSO INCREASED ICE
ACCUM TO A RANGE BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER FOR THIS AREA. 1 TO
3 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THIS AREA AS
WELL. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE COLD AIR MOVING
SOUTHWARD AND WARM AIR LINGERING ALOFT...PRECIP TYPES MAY VARY AND
MODIFY SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE EXTENDED...STILL LOOKS COLD FOR THE FIRST
PERIOD AFTER THE EVENT AS COLD AIR STICKS AROUND. DOESNT LOOK AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS FORECAST HOWEVER SNOW/SLEET/ICE AT THE SURFACE
WITH CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY MORNING MAY ALLOW FOR SINGLE DIGIT LOWS
ACROSS THE AREA. FORTUNATELY BELOW ZERO 850 MB TEMPS DONT STICK
AROUND LONG...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD MELT A LOT OF THE FROZEN PRECIP AND
IMPROVE TRAVEL CONDITIONS. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MIDDLE TN
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      23  27  10  34 / 100  60  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    19  24   4  30 / 100  40  05  05
CROSSVILLE     23  24  11  35 / 100  80  10  05
COLUMBIA       23  27  11  35 / 100  70  05  05
LAWRENCEBURG   23  29  13  36 / 100  70  05  05
WAVERLY        20  26   7  33 / 100  50  05  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-
023>026.

&&

$$

BARNWELL






000
FXUS64 KMRX 042021
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
321 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...STRENGTHENING SW-NE UPPER JET
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION
MOVING OVER SW VA ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
GOOD LIFT OVERNIGHT INTO MID DAY THURDAY ALONG THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. MODEST PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS HAVE
PRODUCED GOOD SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF E TN AND
PORTIONS OF SW VA AN SW NC. THESE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN THIS EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO THE WE
TN VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT. FLOOD WATCH AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW MELT HAS BEEN UNDERWAY ALONG KY BORDER AND
ACROSS SW VA. MELT ALONE HAS BEEN CAUSING SOME TROUBLE AND SITUATION
LOOKS TO WORSEN OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.00. SHALLOW
POST FRONTAL AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NW AROUND MIDNIGHT. DRAMATIC
TEMPERATURE DROPS CAN BE EXPECTED IN FRONTAL ZONE. PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL GO THROUGH TRANSITION AS THE COLD LAYER UNDERCUTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT. FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY
TO A LONGER PERIOD OF SLEET AS THE RELATIVELY DEEP WARM LAYER
SHRINKS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. INITIAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
HINDER ICE...SLEET AND EVENTUAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. USED THICKNESS
TOOLS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. USED LOCAL TOOLS FOR ACCUMULATIONS
LEANING TOWARD A LOW END SOLUTION FAVORING SLEET AND RLATIVELY
MODERATE RAIN RATES. MODELS SNOW FALL OUTPUT AND CURRENT FORECAST
MAY BE UNDERDONE FOR MID DAY THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL VALLEY AND E
AREAS. WEAK LIFR REMAINS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MODEST
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT ON THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A VERY COLD MORNING ON FRIDAY AS THE SKY CLEARS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS IN MANY
SPOTS...AND UPPER TEENS TO 20 DEGREES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A NORTHERLY WIND WILL ALSO KEEP THINGS ON THE
COOL SIDE FOR FRIDAY DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE...WITH HIGHS AT OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN MANY AREAS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...ALONG WITH A MUCH WELCOME WARMING TREND. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND EVEN
THE LOWER 60S BY THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION LOOKS AS IF IT MAY BE TOWARD THE END OF
THE NEXT WORK WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             34  37  21  42 /  90 100  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  32  35  16  38 /  90 100  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  33  16  38 /  90 100  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              32  35  12  34 /  90 100  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON/AMP



000
FXUS64 KMRX 042021
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
321 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...STRENGTHENING SW-NE UPPER JET
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION
MOVING OVER SW VA ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
GOOD LIFT OVERNIGHT INTO MID DAY THURDAY ALONG THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. MODEST PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS HAVE
PRODUCED GOOD SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF E TN AND
PORTIONS OF SW VA AN SW NC. THESE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN THIS EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO THE WE
TN VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT. FLOOD WATCH AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW MELT HAS BEEN UNDERWAY ALONG KY BORDER AND
ACROSS SW VA. MELT ALONE HAS BEEN CAUSING SOME TROUBLE AND SITUATION
LOOKS TO WORSEN OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.00. SHALLOW
POST FRONTAL AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NW AROUND MIDNIGHT. DRAMATIC
TEMPERATURE DROPS CAN BE EXPECTED IN FRONTAL ZONE. PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL GO THROUGH TRANSITION AS THE COLD LAYER UNDERCUTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT. FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY
TO A LONGER PERIOD OF SLEET AS THE RELATIVELY DEEP WARM LAYER
SHRINKS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. INITIAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
HINDER ICE...SLEET AND EVENTUAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. USED THICKNESS
TOOLS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. USED LOCAL TOOLS FOR ACCUMULATIONS
LEANING TOWARD A LOW END SOLUTION FAVORING SLEET AND RLATIVELY
MODERATE RAIN RATES. MODELS SNOW FALL OUTPUT AND CURRENT FORECAST
MAY BE UNDERDONE FOR MID DAY THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL VALLEY AND E
AREAS. WEAK LIFR REMAINS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MODEST
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT ON THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A VERY COLD MORNING ON FRIDAY AS THE SKY CLEARS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS IN MANY
SPOTS...AND UPPER TEENS TO 20 DEGREES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A NORTHERLY WIND WILL ALSO KEEP THINGS ON THE
COOL SIDE FOR FRIDAY DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE...WITH HIGHS AT OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN MANY AREAS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...ALONG WITH A MUCH WELCOME WARMING TREND. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND EVEN
THE LOWER 60S BY THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION LOOKS AS IF IT MAY BE TOWARD THE END OF
THE NEXT WORK WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             34  37  21  42 /  90 100  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  32  35  16  38 /  90 100  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  33  16  38 /  90 100  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              32  35  12  34 /  90 100  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON/AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 042021
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
321 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...STRENGTHENING SW-NE UPPER JET
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION
MOVING OVER SW VA ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
GOOD LIFT OVERNIGHT INTO MID DAY THURDAY ALONG THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. MODEST PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS HAVE
PRODUCED GOOD SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF E TN AND
PORTIONS OF SW VA AN SW NC. THESE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN THIS EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO THE WE
TN VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT. FLOOD WATCH AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW MELT HAS BEEN UNDERWAY ALONG KY BORDER AND
ACROSS SW VA. MELT ALONE HAS BEEN CAUSING SOME TROUBLE AND SITUATION
LOOKS TO WORSEN OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.00. SHALLOW
POST FRONTAL AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NW AROUND MIDNIGHT. DRAMATIC
TEMPERATURE DROPS CAN BE EXPECTED IN FRONTAL ZONE. PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL GO THROUGH TRANSITION AS THE COLD LAYER UNDERCUTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT. FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY
TO A LONGER PERIOD OF SLEET AS THE RELATIVELY DEEP WARM LAYER
SHRINKS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. INITIAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
HINDER ICE...SLEET AND EVENTUAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. USED THICKNESS
TOOLS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. USED LOCAL TOOLS FOR ACCUMULATIONS
LEANING TOWARD A LOW END SOLUTION FAVORING SLEET AND RLATIVELY
MODERATE RAIN RATES. MODELS SNOW FALL OUTPUT AND CURRENT FORECAST
MAY BE UNDERDONE FOR MID DAY THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL VALLEY AND E
AREAS. WEAK LIFR REMAINS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MODEST
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT ON THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A VERY COLD MORNING ON FRIDAY AS THE SKY CLEARS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS IN MANY
SPOTS...AND UPPER TEENS TO 20 DEGREES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A NORTHERLY WIND WILL ALSO KEEP THINGS ON THE
COOL SIDE FOR FRIDAY DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE...WITH HIGHS AT OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN MANY AREAS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...ALONG WITH A MUCH WELCOME WARMING TREND. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND EVEN
THE LOWER 60S BY THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION LOOKS AS IF IT MAY BE TOWARD THE END OF
THE NEXT WORK WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             34  37  21  42 /  90 100  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  32  35  16  38 /  90 100  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  33  16  38 /  90 100  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              32  35  12  34 /  90 100  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON/AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 042021
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
321 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...STRENGTHENING SW-NE UPPER JET
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION
MOVING OVER SW VA ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
GOOD LIFT OVERNIGHT INTO MID DAY THURDAY ALONG THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. MODEST PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS HAVE
PRODUCED GOOD SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF E TN AND
PORTIONS OF SW VA AN SW NC. THESE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN THIS EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO THE WE
TN VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT. FLOOD WATCH AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW MELT HAS BEEN UNDERWAY ALONG KY BORDER AND
ACROSS SW VA. MELT ALONE HAS BEEN CAUSING SOME TROUBLE AND SITUATION
LOOKS TO WORSEN OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.00. SHALLOW
POST FRONTAL AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NW AROUND MIDNIGHT. DRAMATIC
TEMPERATURE DROPS CAN BE EXPECTED IN FRONTAL ZONE. PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL GO THROUGH TRANSITION AS THE COLD LAYER UNDERCUTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT. FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY
TO A LONGER PERIOD OF SLEET AS THE RELATIVELY DEEP WARM LAYER
SHRINKS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. INITIAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
HINDER ICE...SLEET AND EVENTUAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. USED THICKNESS
TOOLS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. USED LOCAL TOOLS FOR ACCUMULATIONS
LEANING TOWARD A LOW END SOLUTION FAVORING SLEET AND RLATIVELY
MODERATE RAIN RATES. MODELS SNOW FALL OUTPUT AND CURRENT FORECAST
MAY BE UNDERDONE FOR MID DAY THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL VALLEY AND E
AREAS. WEAK LIFR REMAINS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MODEST
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT ON THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A VERY COLD MORNING ON FRIDAY AS THE SKY CLEARS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS IN MANY
SPOTS...AND UPPER TEENS TO 20 DEGREES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A NORTHERLY WIND WILL ALSO KEEP THINGS ON THE
COOL SIDE FOR FRIDAY DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE...WITH HIGHS AT OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN MANY AREAS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...ALONG WITH A MUCH WELCOME WARMING TREND. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND EVEN
THE LOWER 60S BY THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION LOOKS AS IF IT MAY BE TOWARD THE END OF
THE NEXT WORK WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             34  37  21  42 /  90 100  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  32  35  16  38 /  90 100  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  33  16  38 /  90 100  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              32  35  12  34 /  90 100  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON/AMP



000
FXUS64 KOHX 041826 AAD
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1226 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SEVERAL AMDS POSSIBLE THRU 05/18Z. SIGNIFICANT ICING POTENTIAL ALONG WITH AT
MAINLY IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS THRU 05/18Z. TIMING OF IMPACTS NOT SPECIFICALLY
CERTAIN AND THIS SHOULD BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT WITH FM GROUP TIMINGS. COPIOUS
MOISTURE ACROSS MID STATE PRESENTLY PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
A WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN...THEN SNOW/SLEET MIX...AND THEN ALL
SNOW. SFC OBS/CONSENSUS SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS SHOWING A WINTRY MIX...WITH
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL BEGINNING AFTER 04/22Z CKV...05/00Z BNA...AND 05/02Z
CSV. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE 05/02Z CKV...05/04Z BNA...
AND 05/06Z CSV. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW 05/13Z CKV...05/12Z BNA...AND
05/17Z CSV.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1124 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF MID STATE FROM FLASH FLOOD WATCH. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS. REMAINDER FOR FORECAST THRU AFTERNOON HRS
REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1052 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS THRU REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HRS
THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FROM 18Z-20Z...ACROSS FAR NW PORTIONS OF MID STATE...
CLARKSVILLE...NWD TO LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION...BELIEVE THAT RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL START TO MIX IN...AND WILL MOVE THIS AREA SLOWLY EWD WITH
THE CHANCE OF A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE APPROACHING LOCATIONS GENERALLY
AROUND AND NORTH OF I-40 AND GENERALLY AROUND AND WEST OF I-65 BETWEEN 22Z-00Z.
HOWEVER...AM LEAVING ICE AND SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS AMOUNTS
FORECASTED THRU THIS AFTERNOON AS OF THIS TIME. WENT AHEAD ALSO AND TWEAKED HRLY
TEMP...DEWPOINT...WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 546 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED NASHVILLE
WITH RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE NW.
NEARLY ALL PRECIPITATION IS POST-FRONTAL, SO WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT, RAIN WILL
SWITCH OVER TO A WINTRY MIX BY 21Z AT CKV, AROUND 00Z AT BNA, AND
03Z AT CSV, WITH IFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 402 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...COLD AIR WAS ALREADY STARTING TO REPLACE OUR MILD
TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
READINGS WILL START TO TUMBLE OVER OTHER PARTS OF THE MID STATE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AT 3 AM CST, A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHED
FROM JUST EAST OF BWG TO JUST EAST OF MEMPHIS, AND SHOULD BE IN
THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA BY 6 AM CST.

PREVIOUS PRECIP AND QPF GRIDS FROM THE LAST SHIFT LOOK EXCELLENT
AND ARE STILL IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS, MAINLY DURING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP WILL STILL BE MAINLY A ZR/IP MIX FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CSV-TO-
LAWRENCEBURG LINE. INDEED, WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP A WATCH OVER THOSE
AREAS IN PARTICULAR TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS
FREEZING RAIN AND BE PREPARED TO UPGRADE OUR ICE ACCUM GRIDS IF
NECESSARY. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
AS SLEET RATHER THAN ZR BUT, OF COURSE, THAT COULD CHANGE. FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE`LL BE DEALING MAINLY WITH A
SLEET AND SNOW MIX EVEN THOUGH IT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISING FOR THE
PRECIP TO START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.

DON`T EXPECT FREEZING TEMPS TO ARRIVE IN OUR NW UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER NOON--PROBABLY AROUND 2 PM OR 3 PM IN THE CKV AREA. BY
NIGHTFALL EXPECT TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO BE GETTING PRETTY SLOPPY
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHLAND RIM AREA, NORTH OF NASHVILLE.
RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT THE TEMP PROBABLY WON`T REACH FREEZING
AT BNA UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM. SO, EVEN THOUGH
NASHVILLE PROPER MAY NOT HAVE BAD ROAD CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, TRAVELERS SHOULD REALIZE THAT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY WORSE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY.

TONIGHT, TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AREA-WIDE AS COLD
AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD. BY MIDNIGHT,
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND BY 6 AM CST OVER THE ENTIRE MID-STATE. STILL
LOOK FOR HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST, WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW AND SLEET EXPECTED TO BE COMMON ALONG THE HIGHLAND RIM AND
NORTHWEST, RANGING TO AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHEAST, WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTHWEST, AND CLOSER TO 1 TO 2
INCHES SOUTHEAST.

SNOW AND SLEET WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THE NORTH
WINDS WILL NOT. IN FACT, LOOK FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE MORNING, AND ONLY REACH THE TEENS IN
THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TOMORROW,
WHILE SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE WEST.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
ALONG FRIGID COLD TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE EXTREME NORTH TO
THE MIDDLE TEENS SOUTH. SNOW-COVERED SPOTS NEAR THE KENTUCKY
BORDER COULD SEE READINGS DROP TO ZERO.

TEMPERATURES FINALLY START TO WARM INTO THE 30S ON FRIDAY.

19

LONG TERM...LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVER THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER. THE ECMWF BRINGS A GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM ONSHORE AT
THE START OF NEXT WEEK THAT WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH THE
NEXT WEATHER-PRODUCER LATER IN THE WEEK AS A SECOND ONSHORE SYSTEM
TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TOWARD THE MID STATE.

08

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&

$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 041826 AAD
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1226 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SEVERAL AMDS POSSIBLE THRU 05/18Z. SIGNIFICANT ICING POTENTIAL ALONG WITH AT
MAINLY IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS THRU 05/18Z. TIMING OF IMPACTS NOT SPECIFICALLY
CERTAIN AND THIS SHOULD BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT WITH FM GROUP TIMINGS. COPIOUS
MOISTURE ACROSS MID STATE PRESENTLY PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
A WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN...THEN SNOW/SLEET MIX...AND THEN ALL
SNOW. SFC OBS/CONSENSUS SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS SHOWING A WINTRY MIX...WITH
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL BEGINNING AFTER 04/22Z CKV...05/00Z BNA...AND 05/02Z
CSV. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE 05/02Z CKV...05/04Z BNA...
AND 05/06Z CSV. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW 05/13Z CKV...05/12Z BNA...AND
05/17Z CSV.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1124 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF MID STATE FROM FLASH FLOOD WATCH. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS. REMAINDER FOR FORECAST THRU AFTERNOON HRS
REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1052 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS THRU REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HRS
THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FROM 18Z-20Z...ACROSS FAR NW PORTIONS OF MID STATE...
CLARKSVILLE...NWD TO LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION...BELIEVE THAT RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL START TO MIX IN...AND WILL MOVE THIS AREA SLOWLY EWD WITH
THE CHANCE OF A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE APPROACHING LOCATIONS GENERALLY
AROUND AND NORTH OF I-40 AND GENERALLY AROUND AND WEST OF I-65 BETWEEN 22Z-00Z.
HOWEVER...AM LEAVING ICE AND SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS AMOUNTS
FORECASTED THRU THIS AFTERNOON AS OF THIS TIME. WENT AHEAD ALSO AND TWEAKED HRLY
TEMP...DEWPOINT...WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 546 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED NASHVILLE
WITH RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE NW.
NEARLY ALL PRECIPITATION IS POST-FRONTAL, SO WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT, RAIN WILL
SWITCH OVER TO A WINTRY MIX BY 21Z AT CKV, AROUND 00Z AT BNA, AND
03Z AT CSV, WITH IFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 402 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...COLD AIR WAS ALREADY STARTING TO REPLACE OUR MILD
TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
READINGS WILL START TO TUMBLE OVER OTHER PARTS OF THE MID STATE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AT 3 AM CST, A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHED
FROM JUST EAST OF BWG TO JUST EAST OF MEMPHIS, AND SHOULD BE IN
THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA BY 6 AM CST.

PREVIOUS PRECIP AND QPF GRIDS FROM THE LAST SHIFT LOOK EXCELLENT
AND ARE STILL IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS, MAINLY DURING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP WILL STILL BE MAINLY A ZR/IP MIX FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CSV-TO-
LAWRENCEBURG LINE. INDEED, WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP A WATCH OVER THOSE
AREAS IN PARTICULAR TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS
FREEZING RAIN AND BE PREPARED TO UPGRADE OUR ICE ACCUM GRIDS IF
NECESSARY. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
AS SLEET RATHER THAN ZR BUT, OF COURSE, THAT COULD CHANGE. FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE`LL BE DEALING MAINLY WITH A
SLEET AND SNOW MIX EVEN THOUGH IT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISING FOR THE
PRECIP TO START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.

DON`T EXPECT FREEZING TEMPS TO ARRIVE IN OUR NW UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER NOON--PROBABLY AROUND 2 PM OR 3 PM IN THE CKV AREA. BY
NIGHTFALL EXPECT TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO BE GETTING PRETTY SLOPPY
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHLAND RIM AREA, NORTH OF NASHVILLE.
RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT THE TEMP PROBABLY WON`T REACH FREEZING
AT BNA UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM. SO, EVEN THOUGH
NASHVILLE PROPER MAY NOT HAVE BAD ROAD CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, TRAVELERS SHOULD REALIZE THAT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY WORSE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY.

TONIGHT, TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AREA-WIDE AS COLD
AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD. BY MIDNIGHT,
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND BY 6 AM CST OVER THE ENTIRE MID-STATE. STILL
LOOK FOR HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST, WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW AND SLEET EXPECTED TO BE COMMON ALONG THE HIGHLAND RIM AND
NORTHWEST, RANGING TO AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHEAST, WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTHWEST, AND CLOSER TO 1 TO 2
INCHES SOUTHEAST.

SNOW AND SLEET WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THE NORTH
WINDS WILL NOT. IN FACT, LOOK FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE MORNING, AND ONLY REACH THE TEENS IN
THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TOMORROW,
WHILE SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE WEST.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
ALONG FRIGID COLD TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE EXTREME NORTH TO
THE MIDDLE TEENS SOUTH. SNOW-COVERED SPOTS NEAR THE KENTUCKY
BORDER COULD SEE READINGS DROP TO ZERO.

TEMPERATURES FINALLY START TO WARM INTO THE 30S ON FRIDAY.

19

LONG TERM...LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVER THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER. THE ECMWF BRINGS A GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM ONSHORE AT
THE START OF NEXT WEEK THAT WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH THE
NEXT WEATHER-PRODUCER LATER IN THE WEEK AS A SECOND ONSHORE SYSTEM
TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TOWARD THE MID STATE.

08

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&

$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 041826 AAD
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1226 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SEVERAL AMDS POSSIBLE THRU 05/18Z. SIGNIFICANT ICING POTENTIAL ALONG WITH AT
MAINLY IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS THRU 05/18Z. TIMING OF IMPACTS NOT SPECIFICALLY
CERTAIN AND THIS SHOULD BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT WITH FM GROUP TIMINGS. COPIOUS
MOISTURE ACROSS MID STATE PRESENTLY PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
A WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN...THEN SNOW/SLEET MIX...AND THEN ALL
SNOW. SFC OBS/CONSENSUS SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS SHOWING A WINTRY MIX...WITH
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL BEGINNING AFTER 04/22Z CKV...05/00Z BNA...AND 05/02Z
CSV. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE 05/02Z CKV...05/04Z BNA...
AND 05/06Z CSV. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW 05/13Z CKV...05/12Z BNA...AND
05/17Z CSV.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1124 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF MID STATE FROM FLASH FLOOD WATCH. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS. REMAINDER FOR FORECAST THRU AFTERNOON HRS
REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1052 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS THRU REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HRS
THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FROM 18Z-20Z...ACROSS FAR NW PORTIONS OF MID STATE...
CLARKSVILLE...NWD TO LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION...BELIEVE THAT RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL START TO MIX IN...AND WILL MOVE THIS AREA SLOWLY EWD WITH
THE CHANCE OF A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE APPROACHING LOCATIONS GENERALLY
AROUND AND NORTH OF I-40 AND GENERALLY AROUND AND WEST OF I-65 BETWEEN 22Z-00Z.
HOWEVER...AM LEAVING ICE AND SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS AMOUNTS
FORECASTED THRU THIS AFTERNOON AS OF THIS TIME. WENT AHEAD ALSO AND TWEAKED HRLY
TEMP...DEWPOINT...WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 546 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED NASHVILLE
WITH RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE NW.
NEARLY ALL PRECIPITATION IS POST-FRONTAL, SO WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT, RAIN WILL
SWITCH OVER TO A WINTRY MIX BY 21Z AT CKV, AROUND 00Z AT BNA, AND
03Z AT CSV, WITH IFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 402 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...COLD AIR WAS ALREADY STARTING TO REPLACE OUR MILD
TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
READINGS WILL START TO TUMBLE OVER OTHER PARTS OF THE MID STATE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AT 3 AM CST, A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHED
FROM JUST EAST OF BWG TO JUST EAST OF MEMPHIS, AND SHOULD BE IN
THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA BY 6 AM CST.

PREVIOUS PRECIP AND QPF GRIDS FROM THE LAST SHIFT LOOK EXCELLENT
AND ARE STILL IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS, MAINLY DURING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP WILL STILL BE MAINLY A ZR/IP MIX FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CSV-TO-
LAWRENCEBURG LINE. INDEED, WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP A WATCH OVER THOSE
AREAS IN PARTICULAR TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS
FREEZING RAIN AND BE PREPARED TO UPGRADE OUR ICE ACCUM GRIDS IF
NECESSARY. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
AS SLEET RATHER THAN ZR BUT, OF COURSE, THAT COULD CHANGE. FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE`LL BE DEALING MAINLY WITH A
SLEET AND SNOW MIX EVEN THOUGH IT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISING FOR THE
PRECIP TO START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.

DON`T EXPECT FREEZING TEMPS TO ARRIVE IN OUR NW UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER NOON--PROBABLY AROUND 2 PM OR 3 PM IN THE CKV AREA. BY
NIGHTFALL EXPECT TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO BE GETTING PRETTY SLOPPY
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHLAND RIM AREA, NORTH OF NASHVILLE.
RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT THE TEMP PROBABLY WON`T REACH FREEZING
AT BNA UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM. SO, EVEN THOUGH
NASHVILLE PROPER MAY NOT HAVE BAD ROAD CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, TRAVELERS SHOULD REALIZE THAT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY WORSE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY.

TONIGHT, TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AREA-WIDE AS COLD
AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD. BY MIDNIGHT,
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND BY 6 AM CST OVER THE ENTIRE MID-STATE. STILL
LOOK FOR HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST, WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW AND SLEET EXPECTED TO BE COMMON ALONG THE HIGHLAND RIM AND
NORTHWEST, RANGING TO AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHEAST, WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTHWEST, AND CLOSER TO 1 TO 2
INCHES SOUTHEAST.

SNOW AND SLEET WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THE NORTH
WINDS WILL NOT. IN FACT, LOOK FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE MORNING, AND ONLY REACH THE TEENS IN
THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TOMORROW,
WHILE SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE WEST.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
ALONG FRIGID COLD TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE EXTREME NORTH TO
THE MIDDLE TEENS SOUTH. SNOW-COVERED SPOTS NEAR THE KENTUCKY
BORDER COULD SEE READINGS DROP TO ZERO.

TEMPERATURES FINALLY START TO WARM INTO THE 30S ON FRIDAY.

19

LONG TERM...LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVER THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER. THE ECMWF BRINGS A GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM ONSHORE AT
THE START OF NEXT WEEK THAT WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH THE
NEXT WEATHER-PRODUCER LATER IN THE WEEK AS A SECOND ONSHORE SYSTEM
TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TOWARD THE MID STATE.

08

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&

$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 041826 AAD
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1226 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SEVERAL AMDS POSSIBLE THRU 05/18Z. SIGNIFICANT ICING POTENTIAL ALONG WITH AT
MAINLY IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS THRU 05/18Z. TIMING OF IMPACTS NOT SPECIFICALLY
CERTAIN AND THIS SHOULD BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT WITH FM GROUP TIMINGS. COPIOUS
MOISTURE ACROSS MID STATE PRESENTLY PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
A WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN...THEN SNOW/SLEET MIX...AND THEN ALL
SNOW. SFC OBS/CONSENSUS SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS SHOWING A WINTRY MIX...WITH
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL BEGINNING AFTER 04/22Z CKV...05/00Z BNA...AND 05/02Z
CSV. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE 05/02Z CKV...05/04Z BNA...
AND 05/06Z CSV. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW 05/13Z CKV...05/12Z BNA...AND
05/17Z CSV.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1124 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF MID STATE FROM FLASH FLOOD WATCH. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS. REMAINDER FOR FORECAST THRU AFTERNOON HRS
REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1052 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS THRU REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HRS
THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FROM 18Z-20Z...ACROSS FAR NW PORTIONS OF MID STATE...
CLARKSVILLE...NWD TO LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION...BELIEVE THAT RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL START TO MIX IN...AND WILL MOVE THIS AREA SLOWLY EWD WITH
THE CHANCE OF A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE APPROACHING LOCATIONS GENERALLY
AROUND AND NORTH OF I-40 AND GENERALLY AROUND AND WEST OF I-65 BETWEEN 22Z-00Z.
HOWEVER...AM LEAVING ICE AND SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS AMOUNTS
FORECASTED THRU THIS AFTERNOON AS OF THIS TIME. WENT AHEAD ALSO AND TWEAKED HRLY
TEMP...DEWPOINT...WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 546 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED NASHVILLE
WITH RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE NW.
NEARLY ALL PRECIPITATION IS POST-FRONTAL, SO WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT, RAIN WILL
SWITCH OVER TO A WINTRY MIX BY 21Z AT CKV, AROUND 00Z AT BNA, AND
03Z AT CSV, WITH IFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 402 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...COLD AIR WAS ALREADY STARTING TO REPLACE OUR MILD
TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
READINGS WILL START TO TUMBLE OVER OTHER PARTS OF THE MID STATE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AT 3 AM CST, A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHED
FROM JUST EAST OF BWG TO JUST EAST OF MEMPHIS, AND SHOULD BE IN
THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA BY 6 AM CST.

PREVIOUS PRECIP AND QPF GRIDS FROM THE LAST SHIFT LOOK EXCELLENT
AND ARE STILL IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS, MAINLY DURING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP WILL STILL BE MAINLY A ZR/IP MIX FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CSV-TO-
LAWRENCEBURG LINE. INDEED, WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP A WATCH OVER THOSE
AREAS IN PARTICULAR TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS
FREEZING RAIN AND BE PREPARED TO UPGRADE OUR ICE ACCUM GRIDS IF
NECESSARY. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
AS SLEET RATHER THAN ZR BUT, OF COURSE, THAT COULD CHANGE. FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE`LL BE DEALING MAINLY WITH A
SLEET AND SNOW MIX EVEN THOUGH IT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISING FOR THE
PRECIP TO START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.

DON`T EXPECT FREEZING TEMPS TO ARRIVE IN OUR NW UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER NOON--PROBABLY AROUND 2 PM OR 3 PM IN THE CKV AREA. BY
NIGHTFALL EXPECT TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO BE GETTING PRETTY SLOPPY
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHLAND RIM AREA, NORTH OF NASHVILLE.
RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT THE TEMP PROBABLY WON`T REACH FREEZING
AT BNA UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM. SO, EVEN THOUGH
NASHVILLE PROPER MAY NOT HAVE BAD ROAD CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, TRAVELERS SHOULD REALIZE THAT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY WORSE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY.

TONIGHT, TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AREA-WIDE AS COLD
AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD. BY MIDNIGHT,
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND BY 6 AM CST OVER THE ENTIRE MID-STATE. STILL
LOOK FOR HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST, WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW AND SLEET EXPECTED TO BE COMMON ALONG THE HIGHLAND RIM AND
NORTHWEST, RANGING TO AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHEAST, WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTHWEST, AND CLOSER TO 1 TO 2
INCHES SOUTHEAST.

SNOW AND SLEET WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THE NORTH
WINDS WILL NOT. IN FACT, LOOK FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE MORNING, AND ONLY REACH THE TEENS IN
THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TOMORROW,
WHILE SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE WEST.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
ALONG FRIGID COLD TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE EXTREME NORTH TO
THE MIDDLE TEENS SOUTH. SNOW-COVERED SPOTS NEAR THE KENTUCKY
BORDER COULD SEE READINGS DROP TO ZERO.

TEMPERATURES FINALLY START TO WARM INTO THE 30S ON FRIDAY.

19

LONG TERM...LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVER THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER. THE ECMWF BRINGS A GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM ONSHORE AT
THE START OF NEXT WEEK THAT WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH THE
NEXT WEATHER-PRODUCER LATER IN THE WEEK AS A SECOND ONSHORE SYSTEM
TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TOWARD THE MID STATE.

08

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&

$$
31





000
FXUS64 KMRX 041805
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
105 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHORT FUSED UPDATE FOR WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINIA. PRESSURE GRADIENT PACKING
ALONG NORTHWEST PART OF MRX CWA HAS LED TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY BEFORE SHIGFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THIS EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             34  37  22  46 /  90 100  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  32  35  18  41 /  90 100  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  33  18  41 /  90 100  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              32  35  17  42 /  90 100  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THURSDAY THROUGH
     THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 041805
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
105 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHORT FUSED UPDATE FOR WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINIA. PRESSURE GRADIENT PACKING
ALONG NORTHWEST PART OF MRX CWA HAS LED TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY BEFORE SHIGFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THIS EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             34  37  22  46 /  90 100  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  32  35  18  41 /  90 100  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  33  18  41 /  90 100  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              32  35  17  42 /  90 100  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THURSDAY THROUGH
     THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON



000
FXUS64 KMEG 041758
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1158 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE... /ISSUED 1055 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATED TO SLOW THE TIMING SLIGHTLY FOR THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN
TO FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND FAR
NORTH MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS MORNING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES LAG THE
ACTUALLY COLD FRONT BY SEVERAL HOURS. THE FREEZING LINE WILL
STEADILY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY EVEN ACCELERATE ITS
SOUTHWARD ADVANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

THE MAJOR WINTER STORM IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT NORTHERN AREAS
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD DETERIORATE QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID SOUTH AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID
SOUTH BY LATE EVENING. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES IF
NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM BECOMING PHASED OVER THE UPPER PLAINS
AND ROCKIES. CURRENTLY THE MIDSOUTH WAS JUST NOW ENTERING THE
EASTERN MOISTURE PLUME OF THE WARM AIR CONVEYOR BELT...WITH RADAR
INDICATING SHOWERS BREAKING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REFLECTED TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S OVER
THE FAR NORTH WHERE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BACKED TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND MID 60S OVER THE SOUTH WHERE WINDS WERE SOUTHWEST
AND GUSTY. SO THE FRONT WAS LAYING NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR...WITH A
SECONDARY FRONT AND SUBFREEZING AIR ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.

FOR TODAY...HAVE BACKED OFF APPROXIMATELY THREE HOURS WITH THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANGEOVER AND THUS WITH THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS. THIS ALIGNS MORE WITH THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND COORDINATION BETWEEN ADJACENT OFFICES. RAIN MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS THE FRONT WILL SLOW. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI AND
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON..WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE.

SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL IMPACT
THE MIDSOUTH AS THE FREEZING LINE REACHES JONESBORO AND DYERSBURG
AROUND NOON...THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA BY 6 PM...AND TUPELO BY
MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED A FEW MORE COUNTIES IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI TO
THE WARNING BEGINNING THIS EVENING BASED OFF QPF AMOUNTS SEEN IN
THE NEW GUIDANCE. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE CITES OF
CHARLESTON...OXFORD...NEW ALBANY...AND BOONEVILLE. IN ADDITION
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE DELTA
COUNTIES WILL SUFFER THE GREATEST AFFECTS FROM THE WIND THIS
EVENING AND THIS IS ALSO THE ZONE/TIME FRAME WHERE THE GREATEST
ICE AND SLEET WILL FALL. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED AND
MAY FLIRT WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN DELTA.

PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDDAY TOMORROW...WITH
LINGERING NON-ACCUMULATING FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE EAST. NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF...BUT
SPEEDS FROM 5 TO 10 MPH WILL PERSIST TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS COUPLED
WITH THE ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AND CLEARING SKY COVER AS
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
WINDCHILLS AND RECORD OVERNIGHT LOWS. EVEN A FEW MONTHLY LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE CAPTURED.

HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS THE MIDSOUTH THAWS. THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE COLUMN.

THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN TRACK THAT
WILL OPEN AND REMAIN A BROAD WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW PERIODS OF INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK WILL FINALLY WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY MARCH.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO FZRA/SLEET BY 20Z IN KJBR. STILL EXPECT
A CHANGEOVER TO OCCUR IN KMEM AROUND 00Z AND KMKL AROUND 23Z. ONLY
EXPECT AN HOUR OR TWO OF FZRA BEFORE A COMPLETE CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET OCCURS. SLEET WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BETWEEN 3-6Z AT
KJBR...6-9Z AT KMKL AND 9-12Z AT KMEM. MEANWHILE...KTUP WILL SEE
A CHANGE OVER TO FZRA AROUND 6Z AND POSSIBLY A CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET BY 12Z. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL WITH
SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS.

KRM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR LAFAYETTE-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-
     TIPTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 041738
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1238 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED
WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
SNOW. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE SW BUT LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT TRI. CIGS WILL BE IFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. VSBYS WILL LOWER
TO IFR DURING HEAVIER PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 041738
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1238 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED
WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
SNOW. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE SW BUT LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT TRI. CIGS WILL BE IFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. VSBYS WILL LOWER
TO IFR DURING HEAVIER PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON



000
FXUS64 KMRX 041738
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1238 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED
WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
SNOW. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE SW BUT LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT TRI. CIGS WILL BE IFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. VSBYS WILL LOWER
TO IFR DURING HEAVIER PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON



000
FXUS64 KMRX 041738
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1238 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED
WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
SNOW. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE SW BUT LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT TRI. CIGS WILL BE IFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. VSBYS WILL LOWER
TO IFR DURING HEAVIER PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KOHX 041724 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1124 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF MID STATE FROM FLASH FLOOD WATCH. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS. REMAINDER FOR FORECAST THRU AFTERNOON HRS
REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1052 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS THRU REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HRS
THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FROM 18Z-20Z...ACROSS FAR NW PORTIONS OF MID STATE...
CLARKSVILLE...NWD TO LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION...BELIEVE THAT RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL START TO MIX IN...AND WILL MOVE THIS AREA SLOWLY EWD WITH
THE CHANCE OF A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE APPROACHING LOCATIONS GENERALLY
AROUND AND NORTH OF I-40 AND GENERALLY AROUND AND WEST OF I-65 BETWEEN 22Z-00Z.
HOWEVER...AM LEAVING ICE AND SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS AMOUNTS
FORECASTED THRU THIS AFTERNOON AS OF THIS TIME. WENT AHEAD ALSO AND TWEAKED HRLY
TEMP...DEWPOINT...WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 546 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED NASHVILLE
WITH RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE NW.
NEARLY ALL PRECIPITATION IS POST-FRONTAL, SO WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT, RAIN WILL
SWITCH OVER TO A WINTRY MIX BY 21Z AT CKV, AROUND 00Z AT BNA, AND
03Z AT CSV, WITH IFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 402 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...COLD AIR WAS ALREADY STARTING TO REPLACE OUR MILD
TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
READINGS WILL START TO TUMBLE OVER OTHER PARTS OF THE MID STATE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AT 3 AM CST, A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHED
FROM JUST EAST OF BWG TO JUST EAST OF MEMPHIS, AND SHOULD BE IN
THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA BY 6 AM CST.

PREVIOUS PRECIP AND QPF GRIDS FROM THE LAST SHIFT LOOK EXCELLENT
AND ARE STILL IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS, MAINLY DURING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP WILL STILL BE MAINLY A ZR/IP MIX FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CSV-TO-
LAWRENCEBURG LINE. INDEED, WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP A WATCH OVER THOSE
AREAS IN PARTICULAR TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS
FREEZING RAIN AND BE PREPARED TO UPGRADE OUR ICE ACCUM GRIDS IF
NECESSARY. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
AS SLEET RATHER THAN ZR BUT, OF COURSE, THAT COULD CHANGE. FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE`LL BE DEALING MAINLY WITH A
SLEET AND SNOW MIX EVEN THOUGH IT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISING FOR THE
PRECIP TO START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.

DON`T EXPECT FREEZING TEMPS TO ARRIVE IN OUR NW UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER NOON--PROBABLY AROUND 2 PM OR 3 PM IN THE CKV AREA. BY
NIGHTFALL EXPECT TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO BE GETTING PRETTY SLOPPY
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHLAND RIM AREA, NORTH OF NASHVILLE.
RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT THE TEMP PROBABLY WON`T REACH FREEZING
AT BNA UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM. SO, EVEN THOUGH
NASHVILLE PROPER MAY NOT HAVE BAD ROAD CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, TRAVELERS SHOULD REALIZE THAT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY WORSE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY.

TONIGHT, TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AREA-WIDE AS COLD
AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD. BY MIDNIGHT,
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND BY 6 AM CST OVER THE ENTIRE MID-STATE. STILL
LOOK FOR HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST, WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW AND SLEET EXPECTED TO BE COMMON ALONG THE HIGHLAND RIM AND
NORTHWEST, RANGING TO AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHEAST, WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTHWEST, AND CLOSER TO 1 TO 2
INCHES SOUTHEAST.

SNOW AND SLEET WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THE NORTH
WINDS WILL NOT. IN FACT, LOOK FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE MORNING, AND ONLY REACH THE TEENS IN
THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TOMORROW,
WHILE SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE WEST.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
ALONG FRIGID COLD TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE EXTREME NORTH TO
THE MIDDLE TEENS SOUTH. SNOW-COVERED SPOTS NEAR THE KENTUCKY
BORDER COULD SEE READINGS DROP TO ZERO.

TEMPERATURES FINALLY START TO WARM INTO THE 30S ON FRIDAY.

19

LONG TERM...LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVER THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER. THE ECMWF BRINGS A GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM ONSHORE AT
THE START OF NEXT WEEK THAT WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH THE
NEXT WEATHER-PRODUCER LATER IN THE WEEK AS A SECOND ONSHORE SYSTEM
TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TOWARD THE MID STATE.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      52  23  27  10 / 100 100  60  05
CLARKSVILLE    45  18  24   1 / 100 100  40  05
CROSSVILLE     62  23  23  11 / 100 100  80  10
COLUMBIA       62  23  28  14 / 100 100  70  05
LAWRENCEBURG   66  23  30  16 / 100 100  70  05
WAVERLY        49  20  26   4 / 100 100  50  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 041724 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1124 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF MID STATE FROM FLASH FLOOD WATCH. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS. REMAINDER FOR FORECAST THRU AFTERNOON HRS
REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1052 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS THRU REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HRS
THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FROM 18Z-20Z...ACROSS FAR NW PORTIONS OF MID STATE...
CLARKSVILLE...NWD TO LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION...BELIEVE THAT RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL START TO MIX IN...AND WILL MOVE THIS AREA SLOWLY EWD WITH
THE CHANCE OF A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE APPROACHING LOCATIONS GENERALLY
AROUND AND NORTH OF I-40 AND GENERALLY AROUND AND WEST OF I-65 BETWEEN 22Z-00Z.
HOWEVER...AM LEAVING ICE AND SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS AMOUNTS
FORECASTED THRU THIS AFTERNOON AS OF THIS TIME. WENT AHEAD ALSO AND TWEAKED HRLY
TEMP...DEWPOINT...WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 546 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED NASHVILLE
WITH RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE NW.
NEARLY ALL PRECIPITATION IS POST-FRONTAL, SO WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT, RAIN WILL
SWITCH OVER TO A WINTRY MIX BY 21Z AT CKV, AROUND 00Z AT BNA, AND
03Z AT CSV, WITH IFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 402 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...COLD AIR WAS ALREADY STARTING TO REPLACE OUR MILD
TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
READINGS WILL START TO TUMBLE OVER OTHER PARTS OF THE MID STATE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AT 3 AM CST, A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHED
FROM JUST EAST OF BWG TO JUST EAST OF MEMPHIS, AND SHOULD BE IN
THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA BY 6 AM CST.

PREVIOUS PRECIP AND QPF GRIDS FROM THE LAST SHIFT LOOK EXCELLENT
AND ARE STILL IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS, MAINLY DURING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP WILL STILL BE MAINLY A ZR/IP MIX FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CSV-TO-
LAWRENCEBURG LINE. INDEED, WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP A WATCH OVER THOSE
AREAS IN PARTICULAR TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS
FREEZING RAIN AND BE PREPARED TO UPGRADE OUR ICE ACCUM GRIDS IF
NECESSARY. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
AS SLEET RATHER THAN ZR BUT, OF COURSE, THAT COULD CHANGE. FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE`LL BE DEALING MAINLY WITH A
SLEET AND SNOW MIX EVEN THOUGH IT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISING FOR THE
PRECIP TO START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.

DON`T EXPECT FREEZING TEMPS TO ARRIVE IN OUR NW UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER NOON--PROBABLY AROUND 2 PM OR 3 PM IN THE CKV AREA. BY
NIGHTFALL EXPECT TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO BE GETTING PRETTY SLOPPY
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHLAND RIM AREA, NORTH OF NASHVILLE.
RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT THE TEMP PROBABLY WON`T REACH FREEZING
AT BNA UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM. SO, EVEN THOUGH
NASHVILLE PROPER MAY NOT HAVE BAD ROAD CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, TRAVELERS SHOULD REALIZE THAT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY WORSE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY.

TONIGHT, TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AREA-WIDE AS COLD
AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD. BY MIDNIGHT,
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND BY 6 AM CST OVER THE ENTIRE MID-STATE. STILL
LOOK FOR HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST, WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW AND SLEET EXPECTED TO BE COMMON ALONG THE HIGHLAND RIM AND
NORTHWEST, RANGING TO AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHEAST, WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTHWEST, AND CLOSER TO 1 TO 2
INCHES SOUTHEAST.

SNOW AND SLEET WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THE NORTH
WINDS WILL NOT. IN FACT, LOOK FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE MORNING, AND ONLY REACH THE TEENS IN
THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TOMORROW,
WHILE SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE WEST.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
ALONG FRIGID COLD TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE EXTREME NORTH TO
THE MIDDLE TEENS SOUTH. SNOW-COVERED SPOTS NEAR THE KENTUCKY
BORDER COULD SEE READINGS DROP TO ZERO.

TEMPERATURES FINALLY START TO WARM INTO THE 30S ON FRIDAY.

19

LONG TERM...LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVER THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER. THE ECMWF BRINGS A GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM ONSHORE AT
THE START OF NEXT WEEK THAT WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH THE
NEXT WEATHER-PRODUCER LATER IN THE WEEK AS A SECOND ONSHORE SYSTEM
TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TOWARD THE MID STATE.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      52  23  27  10 / 100 100  60  05
CLARKSVILLE    45  18  24   1 / 100 100  40  05
CROSSVILLE     62  23  23  11 / 100 100  80  10
COLUMBIA       62  23  28  14 / 100 100  70  05
LAWRENCEBURG   66  23  30  16 / 100 100  70  05
WAVERLY        49  20  26   4 / 100 100  50  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 041724 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1124 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF MID STATE FROM FLASH FLOOD WATCH. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS. REMAINDER FOR FORECAST THRU AFTERNOON HRS
REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1052 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS THRU REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HRS
THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FROM 18Z-20Z...ACROSS FAR NW PORTIONS OF MID STATE...
CLARKSVILLE...NWD TO LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION...BELIEVE THAT RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL START TO MIX IN...AND WILL MOVE THIS AREA SLOWLY EWD WITH
THE CHANCE OF A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE APPROACHING LOCATIONS GENERALLY
AROUND AND NORTH OF I-40 AND GENERALLY AROUND AND WEST OF I-65 BETWEEN 22Z-00Z.
HOWEVER...AM LEAVING ICE AND SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS AMOUNTS
FORECASTED THRU THIS AFTERNOON AS OF THIS TIME. WENT AHEAD ALSO AND TWEAKED HRLY
TEMP...DEWPOINT...WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 546 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED NASHVILLE
WITH RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE NW.
NEARLY ALL PRECIPITATION IS POST-FRONTAL, SO WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT, RAIN WILL
SWITCH OVER TO A WINTRY MIX BY 21Z AT CKV, AROUND 00Z AT BNA, AND
03Z AT CSV, WITH IFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 402 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...COLD AIR WAS ALREADY STARTING TO REPLACE OUR MILD
TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
READINGS WILL START TO TUMBLE OVER OTHER PARTS OF THE MID STATE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AT 3 AM CST, A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHED
FROM JUST EAST OF BWG TO JUST EAST OF MEMPHIS, AND SHOULD BE IN
THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA BY 6 AM CST.

PREVIOUS PRECIP AND QPF GRIDS FROM THE LAST SHIFT LOOK EXCELLENT
AND ARE STILL IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS, MAINLY DURING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP WILL STILL BE MAINLY A ZR/IP MIX FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CSV-TO-
LAWRENCEBURG LINE. INDEED, WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP A WATCH OVER THOSE
AREAS IN PARTICULAR TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS
FREEZING RAIN AND BE PREPARED TO UPGRADE OUR ICE ACCUM GRIDS IF
NECESSARY. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
AS SLEET RATHER THAN ZR BUT, OF COURSE, THAT COULD CHANGE. FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE`LL BE DEALING MAINLY WITH A
SLEET AND SNOW MIX EVEN THOUGH IT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISING FOR THE
PRECIP TO START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.

DON`T EXPECT FREEZING TEMPS TO ARRIVE IN OUR NW UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER NOON--PROBABLY AROUND 2 PM OR 3 PM IN THE CKV AREA. BY
NIGHTFALL EXPECT TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO BE GETTING PRETTY SLOPPY
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHLAND RIM AREA, NORTH OF NASHVILLE.
RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT THE TEMP PROBABLY WON`T REACH FREEZING
AT BNA UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM. SO, EVEN THOUGH
NASHVILLE PROPER MAY NOT HAVE BAD ROAD CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, TRAVELERS SHOULD REALIZE THAT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY WORSE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY.

TONIGHT, TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AREA-WIDE AS COLD
AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD. BY MIDNIGHT,
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND BY 6 AM CST OVER THE ENTIRE MID-STATE. STILL
LOOK FOR HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST, WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW AND SLEET EXPECTED TO BE COMMON ALONG THE HIGHLAND RIM AND
NORTHWEST, RANGING TO AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHEAST, WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTHWEST, AND CLOSER TO 1 TO 2
INCHES SOUTHEAST.

SNOW AND SLEET WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THE NORTH
WINDS WILL NOT. IN FACT, LOOK FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE MORNING, AND ONLY REACH THE TEENS IN
THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TOMORROW,
WHILE SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE WEST.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
ALONG FRIGID COLD TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE EXTREME NORTH TO
THE MIDDLE TEENS SOUTH. SNOW-COVERED SPOTS NEAR THE KENTUCKY
BORDER COULD SEE READINGS DROP TO ZERO.

TEMPERATURES FINALLY START TO WARM INTO THE 30S ON FRIDAY.

19

LONG TERM...LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVER THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER. THE ECMWF BRINGS A GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM ONSHORE AT
THE START OF NEXT WEEK THAT WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH THE
NEXT WEATHER-PRODUCER LATER IN THE WEEK AS A SECOND ONSHORE SYSTEM
TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TOWARD THE MID STATE.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      52  23  27  10 / 100 100  60  05
CLARKSVILLE    45  18  24   1 / 100 100  40  05
CROSSVILLE     62  23  23  11 / 100 100  80  10
COLUMBIA       62  23  28  14 / 100 100  70  05
LAWRENCEBURG   66  23  30  16 / 100 100  70  05
WAVERLY        49  20  26   4 / 100 100  50  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 041724 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1124 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF MID STATE FROM FLASH FLOOD WATCH. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS. REMAINDER FOR FORECAST THRU AFTERNOON HRS
REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1052 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS THRU REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HRS
THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FROM 18Z-20Z...ACROSS FAR NW PORTIONS OF MID STATE...
CLARKSVILLE...NWD TO LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION...BELIEVE THAT RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL START TO MIX IN...AND WILL MOVE THIS AREA SLOWLY EWD WITH
THE CHANCE OF A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE APPROACHING LOCATIONS GENERALLY
AROUND AND NORTH OF I-40 AND GENERALLY AROUND AND WEST OF I-65 BETWEEN 22Z-00Z.
HOWEVER...AM LEAVING ICE AND SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS AMOUNTS
FORECASTED THRU THIS AFTERNOON AS OF THIS TIME. WENT AHEAD ALSO AND TWEAKED HRLY
TEMP...DEWPOINT...WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 546 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED NASHVILLE
WITH RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE NW.
NEARLY ALL PRECIPITATION IS POST-FRONTAL, SO WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT, RAIN WILL
SWITCH OVER TO A WINTRY MIX BY 21Z AT CKV, AROUND 00Z AT BNA, AND
03Z AT CSV, WITH IFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 402 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...COLD AIR WAS ALREADY STARTING TO REPLACE OUR MILD
TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
READINGS WILL START TO TUMBLE OVER OTHER PARTS OF THE MID STATE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AT 3 AM CST, A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHED
FROM JUST EAST OF BWG TO JUST EAST OF MEMPHIS, AND SHOULD BE IN
THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA BY 6 AM CST.

PREVIOUS PRECIP AND QPF GRIDS FROM THE LAST SHIFT LOOK EXCELLENT
AND ARE STILL IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS, MAINLY DURING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP WILL STILL BE MAINLY A ZR/IP MIX FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CSV-TO-
LAWRENCEBURG LINE. INDEED, WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP A WATCH OVER THOSE
AREAS IN PARTICULAR TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS
FREEZING RAIN AND BE PREPARED TO UPGRADE OUR ICE ACCUM GRIDS IF
NECESSARY. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
AS SLEET RATHER THAN ZR BUT, OF COURSE, THAT COULD CHANGE. FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE`LL BE DEALING MAINLY WITH A
SLEET AND SNOW MIX EVEN THOUGH IT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISING FOR THE
PRECIP TO START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.

DON`T EXPECT FREEZING TEMPS TO ARRIVE IN OUR NW UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER NOON--PROBABLY AROUND 2 PM OR 3 PM IN THE CKV AREA. BY
NIGHTFALL EXPECT TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO BE GETTING PRETTY SLOPPY
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHLAND RIM AREA, NORTH OF NASHVILLE.
RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT THE TEMP PROBABLY WON`T REACH FREEZING
AT BNA UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM. SO, EVEN THOUGH
NASHVILLE PROPER MAY NOT HAVE BAD ROAD CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, TRAVELERS SHOULD REALIZE THAT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY WORSE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY.

TONIGHT, TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AREA-WIDE AS COLD
AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD. BY MIDNIGHT,
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND BY 6 AM CST OVER THE ENTIRE MID-STATE. STILL
LOOK FOR HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST, WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW AND SLEET EXPECTED TO BE COMMON ALONG THE HIGHLAND RIM AND
NORTHWEST, RANGING TO AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHEAST, WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTHWEST, AND CLOSER TO 1 TO 2
INCHES SOUTHEAST.

SNOW AND SLEET WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THE NORTH
WINDS WILL NOT. IN FACT, LOOK FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE MORNING, AND ONLY REACH THE TEENS IN
THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TOMORROW,
WHILE SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE WEST.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
ALONG FRIGID COLD TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE EXTREME NORTH TO
THE MIDDLE TEENS SOUTH. SNOW-COVERED SPOTS NEAR THE KENTUCKY
BORDER COULD SEE READINGS DROP TO ZERO.

TEMPERATURES FINALLY START TO WARM INTO THE 30S ON FRIDAY.

19

LONG TERM...LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVER THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER. THE ECMWF BRINGS A GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM ONSHORE AT
THE START OF NEXT WEEK THAT WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH THE
NEXT WEATHER-PRODUCER LATER IN THE WEEK AS A SECOND ONSHORE SYSTEM
TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TOWARD THE MID STATE.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      52  23  27  10 / 100 100  60  05
CLARKSVILLE    45  18  24   1 / 100 100  40  05
CROSSVILLE     62  23  23  11 / 100 100  80  10
COLUMBIA       62  23  28  14 / 100 100  70  05
LAWRENCEBURG   66  23  30  16 / 100 100  70  05
WAVERLY        49  20  26   4 / 100 100  50  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KMEG 041655
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1055 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO SLOW THE TIMING SLIGHTLY FOR THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN
TO FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND FAR
NORTH MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS MORNING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES LAG THE
ACTUALLY COLD FRONT BY SEVERAL HOURS. THE FREEZING LINE WILL
STEADILY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY EVEN ACCELLERATE ITS
SOUTHWARD ADVANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

THE MAJOR WINTER STORM IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT NORTHERN AREAS
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD DETERIORATE QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID SOUTH AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID
SOUTH BY LATE EVENING. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES IF
NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM BECOMING PHASED OVER THE UPPER PLAINS
AND ROCKIES. CURRENTLY THE MIDSOUTH WAS JUST NOW ENTERING THE
EASTERN MOISTURE PLUME OF THE WARM AIR CONVEYOR BELT...WITH RADAR
INDICATING SHOWERS BREAKING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REFLECTED TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S OVER
THE FAR NORTH WHERE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BACKED TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND MID 60S OVER THE SOUTH WHERE WINDS WERE SOUTHWEST
AND GUSTY. SO THE FRONT WAS LAYING NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR...WITH A
SECONDARY FRONT AND SUBFREEZING AIR ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.

FOR TODAY...HAVE BACKED OFF APPROXIMATELY THREE HOURS WITH THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANGEOVER AND THUS WITH THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS. THIS ALIGNS MORE WITH THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND COORDINATION BETWEEN ADJACENT OFFICES. RAIN MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS THE FRONT WILL SLOW. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI AND
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON..WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE.

SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL IMPACT
THE MIDSOUTH AS THE FREEZING LINE REACHES JONESBORO AND DYERSBURG
AROUND NOON...THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA BY 6 PM...AND TUPELO BY
MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED A FEW MORE COUNTIES IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI TO
THE WARNING BEGINNING THIS EVENING BASED OFF QPF AMOUNTS SEEN IN
THE NEW GUIDANCE. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE CITES OF
CHARLESTON...OXFORD...NEW ALBANY...AND BOONEVILLE. IN ADDITION
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE DELTA
COUNTIES WILL SUFFER THE GREATEST AFFECTS FROM THE WIND THIS
EVENING AND THIS IS ALSO THE ZONE/TIME FRAME WHERE THE GREATEST
ICE AND SLEET WILL FALL. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED AND
MAY FLIRT WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN DELTA.

PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDDAY TOMORROW...WITH
LINGERING NON-ACCUMULATING FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE EAST. NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF...BUT
SPEEDS FROM 5 TO 10 MPH WILL PERSIST TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS COUPLED
WITH THE ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AND CLEARING SKY COVER AS
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
WINDCHILLS AND RECORD OVERNIGHT LOWS. EVEN A FEW MONTHLY LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE CAPTURED.

HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS THE MIDSOUTH THAWS. THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE COLUMN.

THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN TRACK THAT
WILL OPEN AND REMAIN A BROAD WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW PERIODS OF INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK WILL FINALLY WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY MARCH.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (04/12Z-05/12Z)

LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT THE TAF
SITES. KJBR IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE IN THE PERIOD...AFTER 05/07Z. A
STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MENTIONED VCTS AT KTUP BETWEEN 04/17Z AND
04/20Z. RAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO
FREEZING RAIN...THEN SLEET...THEN SNOW. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KJBR AROUND 04/17Z...KMEM AND KMKL
04/23Z...AND KTUP 05/06Z. AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL
SNOW...VLIFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED. WINDS INCREASING FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMING VERY STRONG AND GUSTY
ESPECIALLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR LAFAYETTE-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-
     TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 041655
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1055 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO SLOW THE TIMING SLIGHTLY FOR THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN
TO FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND FAR
NORTH MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS MORNING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES LAG THE
ACTUALLY COLD FRONT BY SEVERAL HOURS. THE FREEZING LINE WILL
STEADILY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY EVEN ACCELLERATE ITS
SOUTHWARD ADVANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

THE MAJOR WINTER STORM IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT NORTHERN AREAS
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD DETERIORATE QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID SOUTH AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID
SOUTH BY LATE EVENING. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES IF
NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM BECOMING PHASED OVER THE UPPER PLAINS
AND ROCKIES. CURRENTLY THE MIDSOUTH WAS JUST NOW ENTERING THE
EASTERN MOISTURE PLUME OF THE WARM AIR CONVEYOR BELT...WITH RADAR
INDICATING SHOWERS BREAKING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REFLECTED TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S OVER
THE FAR NORTH WHERE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BACKED TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND MID 60S OVER THE SOUTH WHERE WINDS WERE SOUTHWEST
AND GUSTY. SO THE FRONT WAS LAYING NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR...WITH A
SECONDARY FRONT AND SUBFREEZING AIR ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.

FOR TODAY...HAVE BACKED OFF APPROXIMATELY THREE HOURS WITH THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANGEOVER AND THUS WITH THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS. THIS ALIGNS MORE WITH THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND COORDINATION BETWEEN ADJACENT OFFICES. RAIN MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS THE FRONT WILL SLOW. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI AND
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON..WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE.

SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL IMPACT
THE MIDSOUTH AS THE FREEZING LINE REACHES JONESBORO AND DYERSBURG
AROUND NOON...THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA BY 6 PM...AND TUPELO BY
MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED A FEW MORE COUNTIES IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI TO
THE WARNING BEGINNING THIS EVENING BASED OFF QPF AMOUNTS SEEN IN
THE NEW GUIDANCE. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE CITES OF
CHARLESTON...OXFORD...NEW ALBANY...AND BOONEVILLE. IN ADDITION
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE DELTA
COUNTIES WILL SUFFER THE GREATEST AFFECTS FROM THE WIND THIS
EVENING AND THIS IS ALSO THE ZONE/TIME FRAME WHERE THE GREATEST
ICE AND SLEET WILL FALL. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED AND
MAY FLIRT WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN DELTA.

PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDDAY TOMORROW...WITH
LINGERING NON-ACCUMULATING FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE EAST. NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF...BUT
SPEEDS FROM 5 TO 10 MPH WILL PERSIST TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS COUPLED
WITH THE ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AND CLEARING SKY COVER AS
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
WINDCHILLS AND RECORD OVERNIGHT LOWS. EVEN A FEW MONTHLY LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE CAPTURED.

HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS THE MIDSOUTH THAWS. THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE COLUMN.

THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN TRACK THAT
WILL OPEN AND REMAIN A BROAD WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW PERIODS OF INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK WILL FINALLY WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY MARCH.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (04/12Z-05/12Z)

LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT THE TAF
SITES. KJBR IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE IN THE PERIOD...AFTER 05/07Z. A
STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MENTIONED VCTS AT KTUP BETWEEN 04/17Z AND
04/20Z. RAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO
FREEZING RAIN...THEN SLEET...THEN SNOW. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KJBR AROUND 04/17Z...KMEM AND KMKL
04/23Z...AND KTUP 05/06Z. AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL
SNOW...VLIFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED. WINDS INCREASING FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMING VERY STRONG AND GUSTY
ESPECIALLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR LAFAYETTE-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-
     TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 041655
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1055 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO SLOW THE TIMING SLIGHTLY FOR THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN
TO FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND FAR
NORTH MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS MORNING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES LAG THE
ACTUALLY COLD FRONT BY SEVERAL HOURS. THE FREEZING LINE WILL
STEADILY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY EVEN ACCELLERATE ITS
SOUTHWARD ADVANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

THE MAJOR WINTER STORM IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT NORTHERN AREAS
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD DETERIORATE QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID SOUTH AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID
SOUTH BY LATE EVENING. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES IF
NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM BECOMING PHASED OVER THE UPPER PLAINS
AND ROCKIES. CURRENTLY THE MIDSOUTH WAS JUST NOW ENTERING THE
EASTERN MOISTURE PLUME OF THE WARM AIR CONVEYOR BELT...WITH RADAR
INDICATING SHOWERS BREAKING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REFLECTED TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S OVER
THE FAR NORTH WHERE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BACKED TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND MID 60S OVER THE SOUTH WHERE WINDS WERE SOUTHWEST
AND GUSTY. SO THE FRONT WAS LAYING NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR...WITH A
SECONDARY FRONT AND SUBFREEZING AIR ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.

FOR TODAY...HAVE BACKED OFF APPROXIMATELY THREE HOURS WITH THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANGEOVER AND THUS WITH THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS. THIS ALIGNS MORE WITH THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND COORDINATION BETWEEN ADJACENT OFFICES. RAIN MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS THE FRONT WILL SLOW. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI AND
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON..WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE.

SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL IMPACT
THE MIDSOUTH AS THE FREEZING LINE REACHES JONESBORO AND DYERSBURG
AROUND NOON...THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA BY 6 PM...AND TUPELO BY
MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED A FEW MORE COUNTIES IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI TO
THE WARNING BEGINNING THIS EVENING BASED OFF QPF AMOUNTS SEEN IN
THE NEW GUIDANCE. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE CITES OF
CHARLESTON...OXFORD...NEW ALBANY...AND BOONEVILLE. IN ADDITION
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE DELTA
COUNTIES WILL SUFFER THE GREATEST AFFECTS FROM THE WIND THIS
EVENING AND THIS IS ALSO THE ZONE/TIME FRAME WHERE THE GREATEST
ICE AND SLEET WILL FALL. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED AND
MAY FLIRT WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN DELTA.

PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDDAY TOMORROW...WITH
LINGERING NON-ACCUMULATING FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE EAST. NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF...BUT
SPEEDS FROM 5 TO 10 MPH WILL PERSIST TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS COUPLED
WITH THE ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AND CLEARING SKY COVER AS
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
WINDCHILLS AND RECORD OVERNIGHT LOWS. EVEN A FEW MONTHLY LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE CAPTURED.

HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS THE MIDSOUTH THAWS. THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE COLUMN.

THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN TRACK THAT
WILL OPEN AND REMAIN A BROAD WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW PERIODS OF INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK WILL FINALLY WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY MARCH.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (04/12Z-05/12Z)

LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT THE TAF
SITES. KJBR IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE IN THE PERIOD...AFTER 05/07Z. A
STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MENTIONED VCTS AT KTUP BETWEEN 04/17Z AND
04/20Z. RAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO
FREEZING RAIN...THEN SLEET...THEN SNOW. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KJBR AROUND 04/17Z...KMEM AND KMKL
04/23Z...AND KTUP 05/06Z. AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL
SNOW...VLIFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED. WINDS INCREASING FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMING VERY STRONG AND GUSTY
ESPECIALLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR LAFAYETTE-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-
     TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 041655
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1055 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO SLOW THE TIMING SLIGHTLY FOR THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN
TO FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND FAR
NORTH MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS MORNING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES LAG THE
ACTUALLY COLD FRONT BY SEVERAL HOURS. THE FREEZING LINE WILL
STEADILY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY EVEN ACCELLERATE ITS
SOUTHWARD ADVANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

THE MAJOR WINTER STORM IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT NORTHERN AREAS
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD DETERIORATE QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID SOUTH AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID
SOUTH BY LATE EVENING. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES IF
NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM BECOMING PHASED OVER THE UPPER PLAINS
AND ROCKIES. CURRENTLY THE MIDSOUTH WAS JUST NOW ENTERING THE
EASTERN MOISTURE PLUME OF THE WARM AIR CONVEYOR BELT...WITH RADAR
INDICATING SHOWERS BREAKING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REFLECTED TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S OVER
THE FAR NORTH WHERE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BACKED TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND MID 60S OVER THE SOUTH WHERE WINDS WERE SOUTHWEST
AND GUSTY. SO THE FRONT WAS LAYING NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR...WITH A
SECONDARY FRONT AND SUBFREEZING AIR ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.

FOR TODAY...HAVE BACKED OFF APPROXIMATELY THREE HOURS WITH THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANGEOVER AND THUS WITH THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS. THIS ALIGNS MORE WITH THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND COORDINATION BETWEEN ADJACENT OFFICES. RAIN MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS THE FRONT WILL SLOW. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI AND
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON..WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE.

SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL IMPACT
THE MIDSOUTH AS THE FREEZING LINE REACHES JONESBORO AND DYERSBURG
AROUND NOON...THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA BY 6 PM...AND TUPELO BY
MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED A FEW MORE COUNTIES IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI TO
THE WARNING BEGINNING THIS EVENING BASED OFF QPF AMOUNTS SEEN IN
THE NEW GUIDANCE. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE CITES OF
CHARLESTON...OXFORD...NEW ALBANY...AND BOONEVILLE. IN ADDITION
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE DELTA
COUNTIES WILL SUFFER THE GREATEST AFFECTS FROM THE WIND THIS
EVENING AND THIS IS ALSO THE ZONE/TIME FRAME WHERE THE GREATEST
ICE AND SLEET WILL FALL. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED AND
MAY FLIRT WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN DELTA.

PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDDAY TOMORROW...WITH
LINGERING NON-ACCUMULATING FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE EAST. NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF...BUT
SPEEDS FROM 5 TO 10 MPH WILL PERSIST TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS COUPLED
WITH THE ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AND CLEARING SKY COVER AS
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
WINDCHILLS AND RECORD OVERNIGHT LOWS. EVEN A FEW MONTHLY LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE CAPTURED.

HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS THE MIDSOUTH THAWS. THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE COLUMN.

THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN TRACK THAT
WILL OPEN AND REMAIN A BROAD WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW PERIODS OF INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK WILL FINALLY WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY MARCH.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (04/12Z-05/12Z)

LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT THE TAF
SITES. KJBR IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE IN THE PERIOD...AFTER 05/07Z. A
STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MENTIONED VCTS AT KTUP BETWEEN 04/17Z AND
04/20Z. RAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO
FREEZING RAIN...THEN SLEET...THEN SNOW. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KJBR AROUND 04/17Z...KMEM AND KMKL
04/23Z...AND KTUP 05/06Z. AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL
SNOW...VLIFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED. WINDS INCREASING FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMING VERY STRONG AND GUSTY
ESPECIALLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR LAFAYETTE-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-
     TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 041655
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1055 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO SLOW THE TIMING SLIGHTLY FOR THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN
TO FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND FAR
NORTH MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS MORNING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES LAG THE
ACTUALLY COLD FRONT BY SEVERAL HOURS. THE FREEZING LINE WILL
STEADILY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY EVEN ACCELLERATE ITS
SOUTHWARD ADVANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

THE MAJOR WINTER STORM IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT NORTHERN AREAS
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD DETERIORATE QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID SOUTH AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID
SOUTH BY LATE EVENING. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES IF
NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM BECOMING PHASED OVER THE UPPER PLAINS
AND ROCKIES. CURRENTLY THE MIDSOUTH WAS JUST NOW ENTERING THE
EASTERN MOISTURE PLUME OF THE WARM AIR CONVEYOR BELT...WITH RADAR
INDICATING SHOWERS BREAKING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REFLECTED TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S OVER
THE FAR NORTH WHERE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BACKED TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND MID 60S OVER THE SOUTH WHERE WINDS WERE SOUTHWEST
AND GUSTY. SO THE FRONT WAS LAYING NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR...WITH A
SECONDARY FRONT AND SUBFREEZING AIR ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.

FOR TODAY...HAVE BACKED OFF APPROXIMATELY THREE HOURS WITH THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANGEOVER AND THUS WITH THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS. THIS ALIGNS MORE WITH THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND COORDINATION BETWEEN ADJACENT OFFICES. RAIN MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS THE FRONT WILL SLOW. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI AND
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON..WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE.

SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL IMPACT
THE MIDSOUTH AS THE FREEZING LINE REACHES JONESBORO AND DYERSBURG
AROUND NOON...THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA BY 6 PM...AND TUPELO BY
MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED A FEW MORE COUNTIES IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI TO
THE WARNING BEGINNING THIS EVENING BASED OFF QPF AMOUNTS SEEN IN
THE NEW GUIDANCE. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE CITES OF
CHARLESTON...OXFORD...NEW ALBANY...AND BOONEVILLE. IN ADDITION
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE DELTA
COUNTIES WILL SUFFER THE GREATEST AFFECTS FROM THE WIND THIS
EVENING AND THIS IS ALSO THE ZONE/TIME FRAME WHERE THE GREATEST
ICE AND SLEET WILL FALL. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED AND
MAY FLIRT WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN DELTA.

PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDDAY TOMORROW...WITH
LINGERING NON-ACCUMULATING FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE EAST. NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF...BUT
SPEEDS FROM 5 TO 10 MPH WILL PERSIST TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS COUPLED
WITH THE ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AND CLEARING SKY COVER AS
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
WINDCHILLS AND RECORD OVERNIGHT LOWS. EVEN A FEW MONTHLY LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE CAPTURED.

HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS THE MIDSOUTH THAWS. THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE COLUMN.

THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN TRACK THAT
WILL OPEN AND REMAIN A BROAD WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW PERIODS OF INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK WILL FINALLY WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY MARCH.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (04/12Z-05/12Z)

LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT THE TAF
SITES. KJBR IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE IN THE PERIOD...AFTER 05/07Z. A
STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MENTIONED VCTS AT KTUP BETWEEN 04/17Z AND
04/20Z. RAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO
FREEZING RAIN...THEN SLEET...THEN SNOW. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KJBR AROUND 04/17Z...KMEM AND KMKL
04/23Z...AND KTUP 05/06Z. AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL
SNOW...VLIFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED. WINDS INCREASING FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMING VERY STRONG AND GUSTY
ESPECIALLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR LAFAYETTE-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-
     TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 041655
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1055 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO SLOW THE TIMING SLIGHTLY FOR THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN
TO FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND FAR
NORTH MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS MORNING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES LAG THE
ACTUALLY COLD FRONT BY SEVERAL HOURS. THE FREEZING LINE WILL
STEADILY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY EVEN ACCELLERATE ITS
SOUTHWARD ADVANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

THE MAJOR WINTER STORM IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT NORTHERN AREAS
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD DETERIORATE QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID SOUTH AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID
SOUTH BY LATE EVENING. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES IF
NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM BECOMING PHASED OVER THE UPPER PLAINS
AND ROCKIES. CURRENTLY THE MIDSOUTH WAS JUST NOW ENTERING THE
EASTERN MOISTURE PLUME OF THE WARM AIR CONVEYOR BELT...WITH RADAR
INDICATING SHOWERS BREAKING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REFLECTED TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S OVER
THE FAR NORTH WHERE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BACKED TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND MID 60S OVER THE SOUTH WHERE WINDS WERE SOUTHWEST
AND GUSTY. SO THE FRONT WAS LAYING NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR...WITH A
SECONDARY FRONT AND SUBFREEZING AIR ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.

FOR TODAY...HAVE BACKED OFF APPROXIMATELY THREE HOURS WITH THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANGEOVER AND THUS WITH THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS. THIS ALIGNS MORE WITH THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND COORDINATION BETWEEN ADJACENT OFFICES. RAIN MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS THE FRONT WILL SLOW. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI AND
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON..WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE.

SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL IMPACT
THE MIDSOUTH AS THE FREEZING LINE REACHES JONESBORO AND DYERSBURG
AROUND NOON...THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA BY 6 PM...AND TUPELO BY
MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED A FEW MORE COUNTIES IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI TO
THE WARNING BEGINNING THIS EVENING BASED OFF QPF AMOUNTS SEEN IN
THE NEW GUIDANCE. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE CITES OF
CHARLESTON...OXFORD...NEW ALBANY...AND BOONEVILLE. IN ADDITION
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE DELTA
COUNTIES WILL SUFFER THE GREATEST AFFECTS FROM THE WIND THIS
EVENING AND THIS IS ALSO THE ZONE/TIME FRAME WHERE THE GREATEST
ICE AND SLEET WILL FALL. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED AND
MAY FLIRT WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN DELTA.

PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDDAY TOMORROW...WITH
LINGERING NON-ACCUMULATING FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE EAST. NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF...BUT
SPEEDS FROM 5 TO 10 MPH WILL PERSIST TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS COUPLED
WITH THE ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AND CLEARING SKY COVER AS
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
WINDCHILLS AND RECORD OVERNIGHT LOWS. EVEN A FEW MONTHLY LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE CAPTURED.

HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS THE MIDSOUTH THAWS. THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE COLUMN.

THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN TRACK THAT
WILL OPEN AND REMAIN A BROAD WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW PERIODS OF INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK WILL FINALLY WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY MARCH.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (04/12Z-05/12Z)

LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT THE TAF
SITES. KJBR IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE IN THE PERIOD...AFTER 05/07Z. A
STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MENTIONED VCTS AT KTUP BETWEEN 04/17Z AND
04/20Z. RAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO
FREEZING RAIN...THEN SLEET...THEN SNOW. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KJBR AROUND 04/17Z...KMEM AND KMKL
04/23Z...AND KTUP 05/06Z. AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL
SNOW...VLIFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED. WINDS INCREASING FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMING VERY STRONG AND GUSTY
ESPECIALLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR LAFAYETTE-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-
     TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 041652 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1052 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS THRU REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HRS
THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FROM 18Z-20Z...ACROSS FAR NW PORTIONS OF MID STATE...
CLARKSVILLE...NWD TO LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION...BELIEVE THAT RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL START TO MIX IN...AND WILL MOVE THIS AREA SLOWLY EWD WITH
THE CHANCE OF A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE APPROACHING LOCATIONS GENERALLY
AROUND AND NORTH OF I-40 AND GENERALLY AROUND AND WEST OF I-65 BETWEEN 22Z-00Z.
HOWEVER...AM LEAVING ICE AND SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS AMOUNTS
FORECASTED THRU THIS AFTERNOON AS OF THIS TIME. WENT AHEAD ALSO AND TWEAKED HRLY
TEMP...DEWPOINT...WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 546 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED NASHVILLE
WITH RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE NW.
NEARLY ALL PRECIPITATION IS POST-FRONTAL, SO WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT, RAIN WILL
SWITCH OVER TO A WINTRY MIX BY 21Z AT CKV, AROUND 00Z AT BNA, AND
03Z AT CSV, WITH IFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 402 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...COLD AIR WAS ALREADY STARTING TO REPLACE OUR MILD
TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
READINGS WILL START TO TUMBLE OVER OTHER PARTS OF THE MID STATE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AT 3 AM CST, A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHED
FROM JUST EAST OF BWG TO JUST EAST OF MEMPHIS, AND SHOULD BE IN
THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA BY 6 AM CST.

PREVIOUS PRECIP AND QPF GRIDS FROM THE LAST SHIFT LOOK EXCELLENT
AND ARE STILL IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS, MAINLY DURING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP WILL STILL BE MAINLY A ZR/IP MIX FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CSV-TO-
LAWRENCEBURG LINE. INDEED, WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP A WATCH OVER THOSE
AREAS IN PARTICULAR TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS
FREEZING RAIN AND BE PREPARED TO UPGRADE OUR ICE ACCUM GRIDS IF
NECESSARY. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
AS SLEET RATHER THAN ZR BUT, OF COURSE, THAT COULD CHANGE. FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE`LL BE DEALING MAINLY WITH A
SLEET AND SNOW MIX EVEN THOUGH IT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISING FOR THE
PRECIP TO START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.

DON`T EXPECT FREEZING TEMPS TO ARRIVE IN OUR NW UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER NOON--PROBABLY AROUND 2 PM OR 3 PM IN THE CKV AREA. BY
NIGHTFALL EXPECT TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO BE GETTING PRETTY SLOPPY
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHLAND RIM AREA, NORTH OF NASHVILLE.
RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT THE TEMP PROBABLY WON`T REACH FREEZING
AT BNA UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM. SO, EVEN THOUGH
NASHVILLE PROPER MAY NOT HAVE BAD ROAD CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, TRAVELERS SHOULD REALIZE THAT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY WORSE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY.

TONIGHT, TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AREA-WIDE AS COLD
AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD. BY MIDNIGHT,
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND BY 6 AM CST OVER THE ENTIRE MID-STATE. STILL
LOOK FOR HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST, WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW AND SLEET EXPECTED TO BE COMMON ALONG THE HIGHLAND RIM AND
NORTHWEST, RANGING TO AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHEAST, WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTHWEST, AND CLOSER TO 1 TO 2
INCHES SOUTHEAST.

SNOW AND SLEET WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THE NORTH
WINDS WILL NOT. IN FACT, LOOK FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE MORNING, AND ONLY REACH THE TEENS IN
THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TOMORROW,
WHILE SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE WEST.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
ALONG FRIGID COLD TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE EXTREME NORTH TO
THE MIDDLE TEENS SOUTH. SNOW-COVERED SPOTS NEAR THE KENTUCKY
BORDER COULD SEE READINGS DROP TO ZERO.

TEMPERATURES FINALLY START TO WARM INTO THE 30S ON FRIDAY.

19

LONG TERM...LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVER THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER. THE ECMWF BRINGS A GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM ONSHORE AT
THE START OF NEXT WEEK THAT WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH THE
NEXT WEATHER-PRODUCER LATER IN THE WEEK AS A SECOND ONSHORE SYSTEM
TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TOWARD THE MID STATE.

08

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&

$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 041652 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1052 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS THRU REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HRS
THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FROM 18Z-20Z...ACROSS FAR NW PORTIONS OF MID STATE...
CLARKSVILLE...NWD TO LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION...BELIEVE THAT RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL START TO MIX IN...AND WILL MOVE THIS AREA SLOWLY EWD WITH
THE CHANCE OF A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE APPROACHING LOCATIONS GENERALLY
AROUND AND NORTH OF I-40 AND GENERALLY AROUND AND WEST OF I-65 BETWEEN 22Z-00Z.
HOWEVER...AM LEAVING ICE AND SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS AMOUNTS
FORECASTED THRU THIS AFTERNOON AS OF THIS TIME. WENT AHEAD ALSO AND TWEAKED HRLY
TEMP...DEWPOINT...WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 546 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED NASHVILLE
WITH RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE NW.
NEARLY ALL PRECIPITATION IS POST-FRONTAL, SO WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT, RAIN WILL
SWITCH OVER TO A WINTRY MIX BY 21Z AT CKV, AROUND 00Z AT BNA, AND
03Z AT CSV, WITH IFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 402 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...COLD AIR WAS ALREADY STARTING TO REPLACE OUR MILD
TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
READINGS WILL START TO TUMBLE OVER OTHER PARTS OF THE MID STATE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AT 3 AM CST, A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHED
FROM JUST EAST OF BWG TO JUST EAST OF MEMPHIS, AND SHOULD BE IN
THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA BY 6 AM CST.

PREVIOUS PRECIP AND QPF GRIDS FROM THE LAST SHIFT LOOK EXCELLENT
AND ARE STILL IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS, MAINLY DURING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP WILL STILL BE MAINLY A ZR/IP MIX FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CSV-TO-
LAWRENCEBURG LINE. INDEED, WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP A WATCH OVER THOSE
AREAS IN PARTICULAR TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS
FREEZING RAIN AND BE PREPARED TO UPGRADE OUR ICE ACCUM GRIDS IF
NECESSARY. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
AS SLEET RATHER THAN ZR BUT, OF COURSE, THAT COULD CHANGE. FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE`LL BE DEALING MAINLY WITH A
SLEET AND SNOW MIX EVEN THOUGH IT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISING FOR THE
PRECIP TO START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.

DON`T EXPECT FREEZING TEMPS TO ARRIVE IN OUR NW UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER NOON--PROBABLY AROUND 2 PM OR 3 PM IN THE CKV AREA. BY
NIGHTFALL EXPECT TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO BE GETTING PRETTY SLOPPY
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHLAND RIM AREA, NORTH OF NASHVILLE.
RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT THE TEMP PROBABLY WON`T REACH FREEZING
AT BNA UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM. SO, EVEN THOUGH
NASHVILLE PROPER MAY NOT HAVE BAD ROAD CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, TRAVELERS SHOULD REALIZE THAT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY WORSE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY.

TONIGHT, TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AREA-WIDE AS COLD
AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD. BY MIDNIGHT,
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND BY 6 AM CST OVER THE ENTIRE MID-STATE. STILL
LOOK FOR HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST, WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW AND SLEET EXPECTED TO BE COMMON ALONG THE HIGHLAND RIM AND
NORTHWEST, RANGING TO AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHEAST, WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTHWEST, AND CLOSER TO 1 TO 2
INCHES SOUTHEAST.

SNOW AND SLEET WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THE NORTH
WINDS WILL NOT. IN FACT, LOOK FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE MORNING, AND ONLY REACH THE TEENS IN
THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TOMORROW,
WHILE SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE WEST.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
ALONG FRIGID COLD TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE EXTREME NORTH TO
THE MIDDLE TEENS SOUTH. SNOW-COVERED SPOTS NEAR THE KENTUCKY
BORDER COULD SEE READINGS DROP TO ZERO.

TEMPERATURES FINALLY START TO WARM INTO THE 30S ON FRIDAY.

19

LONG TERM...LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVER THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER. THE ECMWF BRINGS A GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM ONSHORE AT
THE START OF NEXT WEEK THAT WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH THE
NEXT WEATHER-PRODUCER LATER IN THE WEEK AS A SECOND ONSHORE SYSTEM
TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TOWARD THE MID STATE.

08

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&

$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 041652 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1052 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS THRU REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HRS
THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FROM 18Z-20Z...ACROSS FAR NW PORTIONS OF MID STATE...
CLARKSVILLE...NWD TO LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION...BELIEVE THAT RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL START TO MIX IN...AND WILL MOVE THIS AREA SLOWLY EWD WITH
THE CHANCE OF A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE APPROACHING LOCATIONS GENERALLY
AROUND AND NORTH OF I-40 AND GENERALLY AROUND AND WEST OF I-65 BETWEEN 22Z-00Z.
HOWEVER...AM LEAVING ICE AND SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS AMOUNTS
FORECASTED THRU THIS AFTERNOON AS OF THIS TIME. WENT AHEAD ALSO AND TWEAKED HRLY
TEMP...DEWPOINT...WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 546 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED NASHVILLE
WITH RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE NW.
NEARLY ALL PRECIPITATION IS POST-FRONTAL, SO WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT, RAIN WILL
SWITCH OVER TO A WINTRY MIX BY 21Z AT CKV, AROUND 00Z AT BNA, AND
03Z AT CSV, WITH IFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 402 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...COLD AIR WAS ALREADY STARTING TO REPLACE OUR MILD
TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
READINGS WILL START TO TUMBLE OVER OTHER PARTS OF THE MID STATE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AT 3 AM CST, A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHED
FROM JUST EAST OF BWG TO JUST EAST OF MEMPHIS, AND SHOULD BE IN
THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA BY 6 AM CST.

PREVIOUS PRECIP AND QPF GRIDS FROM THE LAST SHIFT LOOK EXCELLENT
AND ARE STILL IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS, MAINLY DURING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP WILL STILL BE MAINLY A ZR/IP MIX FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CSV-TO-
LAWRENCEBURG LINE. INDEED, WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP A WATCH OVER THOSE
AREAS IN PARTICULAR TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS
FREEZING RAIN AND BE PREPARED TO UPGRADE OUR ICE ACCUM GRIDS IF
NECESSARY. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
AS SLEET RATHER THAN ZR BUT, OF COURSE, THAT COULD CHANGE. FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE`LL BE DEALING MAINLY WITH A
SLEET AND SNOW MIX EVEN THOUGH IT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISING FOR THE
PRECIP TO START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.

DON`T EXPECT FREEZING TEMPS TO ARRIVE IN OUR NW UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER NOON--PROBABLY AROUND 2 PM OR 3 PM IN THE CKV AREA. BY
NIGHTFALL EXPECT TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO BE GETTING PRETTY SLOPPY
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHLAND RIM AREA, NORTH OF NASHVILLE.
RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT THE TEMP PROBABLY WON`T REACH FREEZING
AT BNA UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM. SO, EVEN THOUGH
NASHVILLE PROPER MAY NOT HAVE BAD ROAD CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, TRAVELERS SHOULD REALIZE THAT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY WORSE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY.

TONIGHT, TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AREA-WIDE AS COLD
AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD. BY MIDNIGHT,
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND BY 6 AM CST OVER THE ENTIRE MID-STATE. STILL
LOOK FOR HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST, WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW AND SLEET EXPECTED TO BE COMMON ALONG THE HIGHLAND RIM AND
NORTHWEST, RANGING TO AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHEAST, WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTHWEST, AND CLOSER TO 1 TO 2
INCHES SOUTHEAST.

SNOW AND SLEET WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THE NORTH
WINDS WILL NOT. IN FACT, LOOK FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE MORNING, AND ONLY REACH THE TEENS IN
THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TOMORROW,
WHILE SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE WEST.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
ALONG FRIGID COLD TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE EXTREME NORTH TO
THE MIDDLE TEENS SOUTH. SNOW-COVERED SPOTS NEAR THE KENTUCKY
BORDER COULD SEE READINGS DROP TO ZERO.

TEMPERATURES FINALLY START TO WARM INTO THE 30S ON FRIDAY.

19

LONG TERM...LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVER THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER. THE ECMWF BRINGS A GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM ONSHORE AT
THE START OF NEXT WEEK THAT WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH THE
NEXT WEATHER-PRODUCER LATER IN THE WEEK AS A SECOND ONSHORE SYSTEM
TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TOWARD THE MID STATE.

08

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&

$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 041652 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1052 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS THRU REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HRS
THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FROM 18Z-20Z...ACROSS FAR NW PORTIONS OF MID STATE...
CLARKSVILLE...NWD TO LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION...BELIEVE THAT RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL START TO MIX IN...AND WILL MOVE THIS AREA SLOWLY EWD WITH
THE CHANCE OF A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE APPROACHING LOCATIONS GENERALLY
AROUND AND NORTH OF I-40 AND GENERALLY AROUND AND WEST OF I-65 BETWEEN 22Z-00Z.
HOWEVER...AM LEAVING ICE AND SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS AMOUNTS
FORECASTED THRU THIS AFTERNOON AS OF THIS TIME. WENT AHEAD ALSO AND TWEAKED HRLY
TEMP...DEWPOINT...WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 546 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED NASHVILLE
WITH RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE NW.
NEARLY ALL PRECIPITATION IS POST-FRONTAL, SO WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT, RAIN WILL
SWITCH OVER TO A WINTRY MIX BY 21Z AT CKV, AROUND 00Z AT BNA, AND
03Z AT CSV, WITH IFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 402 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...COLD AIR WAS ALREADY STARTING TO REPLACE OUR MILD
TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
READINGS WILL START TO TUMBLE OVER OTHER PARTS OF THE MID STATE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AT 3 AM CST, A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHED
FROM JUST EAST OF BWG TO JUST EAST OF MEMPHIS, AND SHOULD BE IN
THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA BY 6 AM CST.

PREVIOUS PRECIP AND QPF GRIDS FROM THE LAST SHIFT LOOK EXCELLENT
AND ARE STILL IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS, MAINLY DURING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP WILL STILL BE MAINLY A ZR/IP MIX FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CSV-TO-
LAWRENCEBURG LINE. INDEED, WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP A WATCH OVER THOSE
AREAS IN PARTICULAR TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS
FREEZING RAIN AND BE PREPARED TO UPGRADE OUR ICE ACCUM GRIDS IF
NECESSARY. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
AS SLEET RATHER THAN ZR BUT, OF COURSE, THAT COULD CHANGE. FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE`LL BE DEALING MAINLY WITH A
SLEET AND SNOW MIX EVEN THOUGH IT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISING FOR THE
PRECIP TO START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.

DON`T EXPECT FREEZING TEMPS TO ARRIVE IN OUR NW UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER NOON--PROBABLY AROUND 2 PM OR 3 PM IN THE CKV AREA. BY
NIGHTFALL EXPECT TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO BE GETTING PRETTY SLOPPY
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHLAND RIM AREA, NORTH OF NASHVILLE.
RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT THE TEMP PROBABLY WON`T REACH FREEZING
AT BNA UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM. SO, EVEN THOUGH
NASHVILLE PROPER MAY NOT HAVE BAD ROAD CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, TRAVELERS SHOULD REALIZE THAT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY WORSE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY.

TONIGHT, TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AREA-WIDE AS COLD
AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD. BY MIDNIGHT,
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND BY 6 AM CST OVER THE ENTIRE MID-STATE. STILL
LOOK FOR HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST, WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW AND SLEET EXPECTED TO BE COMMON ALONG THE HIGHLAND RIM AND
NORTHWEST, RANGING TO AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHEAST, WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTHWEST, AND CLOSER TO 1 TO 2
INCHES SOUTHEAST.

SNOW AND SLEET WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THE NORTH
WINDS WILL NOT. IN FACT, LOOK FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE MORNING, AND ONLY REACH THE TEENS IN
THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TOMORROW,
WHILE SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE WEST.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
ALONG FRIGID COLD TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE EXTREME NORTH TO
THE MIDDLE TEENS SOUTH. SNOW-COVERED SPOTS NEAR THE KENTUCKY
BORDER COULD SEE READINGS DROP TO ZERO.

TEMPERATURES FINALLY START TO WARM INTO THE 30S ON FRIDAY.

19

LONG TERM...LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVER THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER. THE ECMWF BRINGS A GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM ONSHORE AT
THE START OF NEXT WEEK THAT WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH THE
NEXT WEATHER-PRODUCER LATER IN THE WEEK AS A SECOND ONSHORE SYSTEM
TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TOWARD THE MID STATE.

08

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&

$$
31






000
FXUS64 KMRX 041626
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1126 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR CLIMBING TEMPERATURES.
ALSO EXPANDED WINTER STORM WARNING TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF SW
VA AND HANCOCK CO TN. THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LIGHT SNOW
AND ICE ACCUMULATION BY EARLY THU.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  34  37  22 /  80  90 100  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  68  32  35  18 /  80  90 100  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       67  30  33  18 /  80  90 100  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              65  32  35  17 /  80  90 100  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 041626
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1126 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR CLIMBING TEMPERATURES.
ALSO EXPANDED WINTER STORM WARNING TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF SW
VA AND HANCOCK CO TN. THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LIGHT SNOW
AND ICE ACCUMULATION BY EARLY THU.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  34  37  22 /  80  90 100  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  68  32  35  18 /  80  90 100  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       67  30  33  18 /  80  90 100  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              65  32  35  17 /  80  90 100  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 041626
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1126 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR CLIMBING TEMPERATURES.
ALSO EXPANDED WINTER STORM WARNING TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF SW
VA AND HANCOCK CO TN. THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LIGHT SNOW
AND ICE ACCUMULATION BY EARLY THU.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  34  37  22 /  80  90 100  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  68  32  35  18 /  80  90 100  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       67  30  33  18 /  80  90 100  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              65  32  35  17 /  80  90 100  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 041626
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1126 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR CLIMBING TEMPERATURES.
ALSO EXPANDED WINTER STORM WARNING TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF SW
VA AND HANCOCK CO TN. THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LIGHT SNOW
AND ICE ACCUMULATION BY EARLY THU.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  34  37  22 /  80  90 100  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  68  32  35  18 /  80  90 100  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       67  30  33  18 /  80  90 100  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              65  32  35  17 /  80  90 100  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 041508
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1008 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER JET RETROGRADING SOME TODAY INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. DEEP MOIST WARM LAYER OVER THE EAST TN VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. CURRENT LULL IN SHOWER COVERAGE WITH
EXPECTED INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON FAVORING WESTERN
AREAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED THIS MORNING...ADJUSTED CURRENT AND
MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TODAY.

HEADLINE PRODUCES LOOK GOOD. MAIN THREAT WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS
FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE
FLOOD WATCH AREA.

WINTER WATCH AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE. WINTRY MIX TRANSITION
STILL ON TRACK WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY. SLEET TO
SNOW SHOULD DOMINATE MORNING HOURS...WITH BETTER ICE THREAT
NORTHWEST AREAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             67  37  38  22 /  80  90 100  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  35  36  18 /  80  90 100  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       64  33  34  18 /  80  90 100  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  33  33  17 /  80  90 100  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-WISE.

&&

$$

SON



000
FXUS64 KMRX 041508
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1008 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER JET RETROGRADING SOME TODAY INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. DEEP MOIST WARM LAYER OVER THE EAST TN VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. CURRENT LULL IN SHOWER COVERAGE WITH
EXPECTED INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON FAVORING WESTERN
AREAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED THIS MORNING...ADJUSTED CURRENT AND
MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TODAY.

HEADLINE PRODUCES LOOK GOOD. MAIN THREAT WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS
FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE
FLOOD WATCH AREA.

WINTER WATCH AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE. WINTRY MIX TRANSITION
STILL ON TRACK WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY. SLEET TO
SNOW SHOULD DOMINATE MORNING HOURS...WITH BETTER ICE THREAT
NORTHWEST AREAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             67  37  38  22 /  80  90 100  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  35  36  18 /  80  90 100  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       64  33  34  18 /  80  90 100  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  33  33  17 /  80  90 100  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-WISE.

&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KOHX 041146
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
546 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED NASHVILLE
WITH RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE NW.
NEARLY ALL PRECIPITATION IS POST-FRONTAL, SO WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT, RAIN WILL
SWITCH OVER TO A WINTRY MIX BY 21Z AT CKV, AROUND 00Z AT BNA, AND
03Z AT CSV, WITH IFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...COLD AIR WAS ALREADY STARTING TO REPLACE OUR MILD
TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
READINGS WILL START TO TUMBLE OVER OTHER PARTS OF THE MID STATE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AT 3 AM CST, A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHED
FROM JUST EAST OF BWG TO JUST EAST OF MEMPHIS, AND SHOULD BE IN
THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA BY 6 AM CST.

PREVIOUS PRECIP AND QPF GRIDS FROM THE LAST SHIFT LOOK EXCELLENT
AND ARE STILL IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS, MAINLY DURING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP WILL STILL BE MAINLY A ZR/IP MIX FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CSV-TO-
LAWRENCEBURG LINE. INDEED, WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP A WATCH OVER THOSE
AREAS IN PARTICULAR TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS
FREEZING RAIN AND BE PREPARED TO UPGRADE OUR ICE ACCUM GRIDS IF
NECESSARY. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
AS SLEET RATHER THAN ZR BUT, OF COURSE, THAT COULD CHANGE. FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE`LL BE DEALING MAINLY WITH A
SLEET AND SNOW MIX EVEN THOUGH IT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISING FOR THE
PRECIP TO START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.

DON`T EXPECT FREEZING TEMPS TO ARRIVE IN OUR NW UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER NOON--PROBABLY AROUND 2 PM OR 3 PM IN THE CKV AREA. BY
NIGHTFALL EXPECT TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO BE GETTING PRETTY SLOPPY
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHLAND RIM AREA, NORTH OF NASHVILLE.
RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT THE TEMP PROBABLY WON`T REACH FREEZING
AT BNA UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM. SO, EVEN THOUGH
NASHVILLE PROPER MAY NOT HAVE BAD ROAD CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, TRAVELERS SHOULD REALIZE THAT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY WORSE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY.

TONIGHT, TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AREA-WIDE AS COLD
AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD. BY MIDNIGHT,
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND BY 6 AM CST OVER THE ENTIRE MID-STATE. STILL
LOOK FOR HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST, WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW AND SLEET EXPECTED TO BE COMMON ALONG THE HIGHLAND RIM AND
NORTHWEST, RANGING TO AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHEAST, WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTHWEST, AND CLOSER TO 1 TO 2
INCHES SOUTHEAST.

SNOW AND SLEET WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THE NORTH
WINDS WILL NOT. IN FACT, LOOK FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE MORNING, AND ONLY REACH THE TEENS IN
THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TOMORROW,
WHILE SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE WEST.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
ALONG FRIGID COLD TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE EXTREME NORTH TO
THE MIDDLE TEENS SOUTH. SNOW-COVERED SPOTS NEAR THE KENTUCKY
BORDER COULD SEE READINGS DROP TO ZERO.

TEMPERATURES FINALLY START TO WARM INTO THE 30S ON FRIDAY.

19

LONG TERM...LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVER THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER. THE ECMWF BRINGS A GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM ONSHORE AT
THE START OF NEXT WEEK THAT WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH THE
NEXT WEATHER-PRODUCER LATER IN THE WEEK AS A SECOND ONSHORE SYSTEM
TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TOWARD THE MID STATE.

08

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 041146
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
546 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED NASHVILLE
WITH RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE NW.
NEARLY ALL PRECIPITATION IS POST-FRONTAL, SO WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT, RAIN WILL
SWITCH OVER TO A WINTRY MIX BY 21Z AT CKV, AROUND 00Z AT BNA, AND
03Z AT CSV, WITH IFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...COLD AIR WAS ALREADY STARTING TO REPLACE OUR MILD
TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
READINGS WILL START TO TUMBLE OVER OTHER PARTS OF THE MID STATE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AT 3 AM CST, A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHED
FROM JUST EAST OF BWG TO JUST EAST OF MEMPHIS, AND SHOULD BE IN
THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA BY 6 AM CST.

PREVIOUS PRECIP AND QPF GRIDS FROM THE LAST SHIFT LOOK EXCELLENT
AND ARE STILL IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS, MAINLY DURING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP WILL STILL BE MAINLY A ZR/IP MIX FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CSV-TO-
LAWRENCEBURG LINE. INDEED, WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP A WATCH OVER THOSE
AREAS IN PARTICULAR TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS
FREEZING RAIN AND BE PREPARED TO UPGRADE OUR ICE ACCUM GRIDS IF
NECESSARY. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
AS SLEET RATHER THAN ZR BUT, OF COURSE, THAT COULD CHANGE. FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE`LL BE DEALING MAINLY WITH A
SLEET AND SNOW MIX EVEN THOUGH IT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISING FOR THE
PRECIP TO START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.

DON`T EXPECT FREEZING TEMPS TO ARRIVE IN OUR NW UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER NOON--PROBABLY AROUND 2 PM OR 3 PM IN THE CKV AREA. BY
NIGHTFALL EXPECT TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO BE GETTING PRETTY SLOPPY
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHLAND RIM AREA, NORTH OF NASHVILLE.
RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT THE TEMP PROBABLY WON`T REACH FREEZING
AT BNA UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM. SO, EVEN THOUGH
NASHVILLE PROPER MAY NOT HAVE BAD ROAD CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, TRAVELERS SHOULD REALIZE THAT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY WORSE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY.

TONIGHT, TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AREA-WIDE AS COLD
AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD. BY MIDNIGHT,
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND BY 6 AM CST OVER THE ENTIRE MID-STATE. STILL
LOOK FOR HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST, WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW AND SLEET EXPECTED TO BE COMMON ALONG THE HIGHLAND RIM AND
NORTHWEST, RANGING TO AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHEAST, WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTHWEST, AND CLOSER TO 1 TO 2
INCHES SOUTHEAST.

SNOW AND SLEET WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THE NORTH
WINDS WILL NOT. IN FACT, LOOK FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE MORNING, AND ONLY REACH THE TEENS IN
THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TOMORROW,
WHILE SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE WEST.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
ALONG FRIGID COLD TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE EXTREME NORTH TO
THE MIDDLE TEENS SOUTH. SNOW-COVERED SPOTS NEAR THE KENTUCKY
BORDER COULD SEE READINGS DROP TO ZERO.

TEMPERATURES FINALLY START TO WARM INTO THE 30S ON FRIDAY.

19

LONG TERM...LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVER THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER. THE ECMWF BRINGS A GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM ONSHORE AT
THE START OF NEXT WEEK THAT WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH THE
NEXT WEATHER-PRODUCER LATER IN THE WEEK AS A SECOND ONSHORE SYSTEM
TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TOWARD THE MID STATE.

08

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&

$$

ROSE




000
FXUS64 KOHX 041146
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
546 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED NASHVILLE
WITH RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE NW.
NEARLY ALL PRECIPITATION IS POST-FRONTAL, SO WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT, RAIN WILL
SWITCH OVER TO A WINTRY MIX BY 21Z AT CKV, AROUND 00Z AT BNA, AND
03Z AT CSV, WITH IFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...COLD AIR WAS ALREADY STARTING TO REPLACE OUR MILD
TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
READINGS WILL START TO TUMBLE OVER OTHER PARTS OF THE MID STATE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AT 3 AM CST, A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHED
FROM JUST EAST OF BWG TO JUST EAST OF MEMPHIS, AND SHOULD BE IN
THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA BY 6 AM CST.

PREVIOUS PRECIP AND QPF GRIDS FROM THE LAST SHIFT LOOK EXCELLENT
AND ARE STILL IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS, MAINLY DURING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP WILL STILL BE MAINLY A ZR/IP MIX FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CSV-TO-
LAWRENCEBURG LINE. INDEED, WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP A WATCH OVER THOSE
AREAS IN PARTICULAR TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS
FREEZING RAIN AND BE PREPARED TO UPGRADE OUR ICE ACCUM GRIDS IF
NECESSARY. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
AS SLEET RATHER THAN ZR BUT, OF COURSE, THAT COULD CHANGE. FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE`LL BE DEALING MAINLY WITH A
SLEET AND SNOW MIX EVEN THOUGH IT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISING FOR THE
PRECIP TO START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.

DON`T EXPECT FREEZING TEMPS TO ARRIVE IN OUR NW UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER NOON--PROBABLY AROUND 2 PM OR 3 PM IN THE CKV AREA. BY
NIGHTFALL EXPECT TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO BE GETTING PRETTY SLOPPY
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHLAND RIM AREA, NORTH OF NASHVILLE.
RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT THE TEMP PROBABLY WON`T REACH FREEZING
AT BNA UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM. SO, EVEN THOUGH
NASHVILLE PROPER MAY NOT HAVE BAD ROAD CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, TRAVELERS SHOULD REALIZE THAT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY WORSE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY.

TONIGHT, TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AREA-WIDE AS COLD
AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD. BY MIDNIGHT,
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND BY 6 AM CST OVER THE ENTIRE MID-STATE. STILL
LOOK FOR HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST, WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW AND SLEET EXPECTED TO BE COMMON ALONG THE HIGHLAND RIM AND
NORTHWEST, RANGING TO AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHEAST, WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTHWEST, AND CLOSER TO 1 TO 2
INCHES SOUTHEAST.

SNOW AND SLEET WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THE NORTH
WINDS WILL NOT. IN FACT, LOOK FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE MORNING, AND ONLY REACH THE TEENS IN
THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TOMORROW,
WHILE SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE WEST.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
ALONG FRIGID COLD TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE EXTREME NORTH TO
THE MIDDLE TEENS SOUTH. SNOW-COVERED SPOTS NEAR THE KENTUCKY
BORDER COULD SEE READINGS DROP TO ZERO.

TEMPERATURES FINALLY START TO WARM INTO THE 30S ON FRIDAY.

19

LONG TERM...LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVER THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER. THE ECMWF BRINGS A GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM ONSHORE AT
THE START OF NEXT WEEK THAT WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH THE
NEXT WEATHER-PRODUCER LATER IN THE WEEK AS A SECOND ONSHORE SYSTEM
TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TOWARD THE MID STATE.

08

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 041146
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
546 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED NASHVILLE
WITH RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE NW.
NEARLY ALL PRECIPITATION IS POST-FRONTAL, SO WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT, RAIN WILL
SWITCH OVER TO A WINTRY MIX BY 21Z AT CKV, AROUND 00Z AT BNA, AND
03Z AT CSV, WITH IFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...COLD AIR WAS ALREADY STARTING TO REPLACE OUR MILD
TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
READINGS WILL START TO TUMBLE OVER OTHER PARTS OF THE MID STATE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AT 3 AM CST, A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHED
FROM JUST EAST OF BWG TO JUST EAST OF MEMPHIS, AND SHOULD BE IN
THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA BY 6 AM CST.

PREVIOUS PRECIP AND QPF GRIDS FROM THE LAST SHIFT LOOK EXCELLENT
AND ARE STILL IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS, MAINLY DURING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP WILL STILL BE MAINLY A ZR/IP MIX FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CSV-TO-
LAWRENCEBURG LINE. INDEED, WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP A WATCH OVER THOSE
AREAS IN PARTICULAR TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS
FREEZING RAIN AND BE PREPARED TO UPGRADE OUR ICE ACCUM GRIDS IF
NECESSARY. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
AS SLEET RATHER THAN ZR BUT, OF COURSE, THAT COULD CHANGE. FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE`LL BE DEALING MAINLY WITH A
SLEET AND SNOW MIX EVEN THOUGH IT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISING FOR THE
PRECIP TO START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.

DON`T EXPECT FREEZING TEMPS TO ARRIVE IN OUR NW UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER NOON--PROBABLY AROUND 2 PM OR 3 PM IN THE CKV AREA. BY
NIGHTFALL EXPECT TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO BE GETTING PRETTY SLOPPY
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHLAND RIM AREA, NORTH OF NASHVILLE.
RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT THE TEMP PROBABLY WON`T REACH FREEZING
AT BNA UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM. SO, EVEN THOUGH
NASHVILLE PROPER MAY NOT HAVE BAD ROAD CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, TRAVELERS SHOULD REALIZE THAT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY WORSE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY.

TONIGHT, TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AREA-WIDE AS COLD
AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD. BY MIDNIGHT,
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND BY 6 AM CST OVER THE ENTIRE MID-STATE. STILL
LOOK FOR HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST, WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW AND SLEET EXPECTED TO BE COMMON ALONG THE HIGHLAND RIM AND
NORTHWEST, RANGING TO AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHEAST, WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTHWEST, AND CLOSER TO 1 TO 2
INCHES SOUTHEAST.

SNOW AND SLEET WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THE NORTH
WINDS WILL NOT. IN FACT, LOOK FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE MORNING, AND ONLY REACH THE TEENS IN
THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TOMORROW,
WHILE SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE WEST.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
ALONG FRIGID COLD TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE EXTREME NORTH TO
THE MIDDLE TEENS SOUTH. SNOW-COVERED SPOTS NEAR THE KENTUCKY
BORDER COULD SEE READINGS DROP TO ZERO.

TEMPERATURES FINALLY START TO WARM INTO THE 30S ON FRIDAY.

19

LONG TERM...LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVER THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER. THE ECMWF BRINGS A GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM ONSHORE AT
THE START OF NEXT WEEK THAT WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH THE
NEXT WEATHER-PRODUCER LATER IN THE WEEK AS A SECOND ONSHORE SYSTEM
TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TOWARD THE MID STATE.

08

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&

$$

ROSE




000
FXUS64 KMRX 041128
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
628 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AROUND AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY EARLY AND THEN AGAIN TONIGHT.
SOME LOW CIGS/VIS TO START...THEN EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
LOWERING CIGS/VIS AGAIN LATE. LOW LEVEL JET STILL QUITE STRONG
EARLY NORTHEAST...SO WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT TRI FOR A
FEW HOURS.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-WISE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 041124 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
524 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 401 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM BECOMING PHASED OVER THE UPPER PLAINS
AND ROCKIES. CURRENTLY THE MIDSOUTH WAS JUST NOW ENTERING THE
EASTERN MOISTURE PLUME OF THE WARM AIR CONVEYOR BELT...WITH RADAR
INDICATING SHOWERS BREAKING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REFLECTED TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S OVER
THE FAR NORTH WHERE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BACKED TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND MID 60S OVER THE SOUTH WHERE WINDS WERE SOUTHWEST
AND GUSTY. SO THE FRONT WAS LAYING NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR...WITH A
SECONDARY FRONT AND SUBFREEZING AIR ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.

FOR TODAY...HAVE BACKED OFF APPROXIMATELY THREE HOURS WITH THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANGEOVER AND THUS WITH THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS. THIS ALIGNS MORE WITH THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND COORDINATION BETWEEN ADJACENT OFFICES. RAIN MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS THE FRONT WILL SLOW. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI AND
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON..WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE.

SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL IMPACT
THE MIDSOUTH AS THE FREEZING LINE REACHES JONESBORO AND DYERSBURG
AROUND NOON...THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA BY 6 PM...AND TUPELO BY
MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED A FEW MORE COUNTIES IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI TO
THE WARNING BEGINNING THIS EVENING BASED OFF QPF AMOUNTS SEEN IN
THE NEW GUIDANCE. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE CITES OF
CHARLESTON...OXFORD...NEW ALBANY...AND BOONEVILLE. IN ADDITION
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE DELTA
COUNTIES WILL SUFFER THE GREATEST AFFECTS FROM THE WIND THIS
EVENING AND THIS IS ALSO THE ZONE/TIME FRAME WHERE THE GREATEST
ICE AND SLEET WILL FALL. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED AND
MAY FLIRT WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN DELTA.

PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDDAY TOMORROW...WITH
LINGERING NON-ACCUMULATING FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE EAST. NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF...BUT
SPEEDS FROM 5 TO 10 MPH WILL PERSIST TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS COUPLED
WITH THE ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AND CLEARING SKY COVER AS
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
WINDCHILLS AND RECORD OVERNIGHT LOWS. EVEN A FEW MONTHLY LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE CAPTURED.

HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS THE MIDSOUTH THAWS. THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE COLUMN.

THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN TRACK THAT
WILL OPEN AND REMAIN A BROAD WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW PERIODS OF INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK WILL FINALLY WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY MARCH.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (04/12Z-05/12Z)

LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT THE TAF
SITES. KJBR IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE IN THE PERIOD...AFTER 05/07Z. A
STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MENTIONED VCTS AT KTUP BETWEEN 04/17Z AND
04/20Z. RAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO
FREEZING RAIN...THEN SLEET...THEN SNOW. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KJBR AROUND 04/17Z...KMEM AND KMKL
04/23Z...AND KTUP 05/06Z. AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL
SNOW...VLIFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED. WINDS INCREASING FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMING VERY STRONG AND GUSTY
ESPECIALLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-
     POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-
     CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-
     BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
     LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR LAFAYETTE-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR CROCKETT-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-
     WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-
     TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 041124 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
524 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 401 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM BECOMING PHASED OVER THE UPPER PLAINS
AND ROCKIES. CURRENTLY THE MIDSOUTH WAS JUST NOW ENTERING THE
EASTERN MOISTURE PLUME OF THE WARM AIR CONVEYOR BELT...WITH RADAR
INDICATING SHOWERS BREAKING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REFLECTED TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S OVER
THE FAR NORTH WHERE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BACKED TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND MID 60S OVER THE SOUTH WHERE WINDS WERE SOUTHWEST
AND GUSTY. SO THE FRONT WAS LAYING NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR...WITH A
SECONDARY FRONT AND SUBFREEZING AIR ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.

FOR TODAY...HAVE BACKED OFF APPROXIMATELY THREE HOURS WITH THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANGEOVER AND THUS WITH THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS. THIS ALIGNS MORE WITH THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND COORDINATION BETWEEN ADJACENT OFFICES. RAIN MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS THE FRONT WILL SLOW. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI AND
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON..WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE.

SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL IMPACT
THE MIDSOUTH AS THE FREEZING LINE REACHES JONESBORO AND DYERSBURG
AROUND NOON...THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA BY 6 PM...AND TUPELO BY
MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED A FEW MORE COUNTIES IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI TO
THE WARNING BEGINNING THIS EVENING BASED OFF QPF AMOUNTS SEEN IN
THE NEW GUIDANCE. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE CITES OF
CHARLESTON...OXFORD...NEW ALBANY...AND BOONEVILLE. IN ADDITION
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE DELTA
COUNTIES WILL SUFFER THE GREATEST AFFECTS FROM THE WIND THIS
EVENING AND THIS IS ALSO THE ZONE/TIME FRAME WHERE THE GREATEST
ICE AND SLEET WILL FALL. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED AND
MAY FLIRT WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN DELTA.

PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDDAY TOMORROW...WITH
LINGERING NON-ACCUMULATING FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE EAST. NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF...BUT
SPEEDS FROM 5 TO 10 MPH WILL PERSIST TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS COUPLED
WITH THE ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AND CLEARING SKY COVER AS
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
WINDCHILLS AND RECORD OVERNIGHT LOWS. EVEN A FEW MONTHLY LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE CAPTURED.

HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS THE MIDSOUTH THAWS. THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE COLUMN.

THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN TRACK THAT
WILL OPEN AND REMAIN A BROAD WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW PERIODS OF INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK WILL FINALLY WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY MARCH.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (04/12Z-05/12Z)

LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT THE TAF
SITES. KJBR IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE IN THE PERIOD...AFTER 05/07Z. A
STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MENTIONED VCTS AT KTUP BETWEEN 04/17Z AND
04/20Z. RAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO
FREEZING RAIN...THEN SLEET...THEN SNOW. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KJBR AROUND 04/17Z...KMEM AND KMKL
04/23Z...AND KTUP 05/06Z. AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL
SNOW...VLIFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED. WINDS INCREASING FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMING VERY STRONG AND GUSTY
ESPECIALLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-
     POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-
     CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-
     BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
     LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR LAFAYETTE-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR CROCKETT-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-
     WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-
     TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 041124 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
524 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 401 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM BECOMING PHASED OVER THE UPPER PLAINS
AND ROCKIES. CURRENTLY THE MIDSOUTH WAS JUST NOW ENTERING THE
EASTERN MOISTURE PLUME OF THE WARM AIR CONVEYOR BELT...WITH RADAR
INDICATING SHOWERS BREAKING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REFLECTED TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S OVER
THE FAR NORTH WHERE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BACKED TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND MID 60S OVER THE SOUTH WHERE WINDS WERE SOUTHWEST
AND GUSTY. SO THE FRONT WAS LAYING NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR...WITH A
SECONDARY FRONT AND SUBFREEZING AIR ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.

FOR TODAY...HAVE BACKED OFF APPROXIMATELY THREE HOURS WITH THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANGEOVER AND THUS WITH THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS. THIS ALIGNS MORE WITH THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND COORDINATION BETWEEN ADJACENT OFFICES. RAIN MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS THE FRONT WILL SLOW. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI AND
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON..WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE.

SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL IMPACT
THE MIDSOUTH AS THE FREEZING LINE REACHES JONESBORO AND DYERSBURG
AROUND NOON...THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA BY 6 PM...AND TUPELO BY
MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED A FEW MORE COUNTIES IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI TO
THE WARNING BEGINNING THIS EVENING BASED OFF QPF AMOUNTS SEEN IN
THE NEW GUIDANCE. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE CITES OF
CHARLESTON...OXFORD...NEW ALBANY...AND BOONEVILLE. IN ADDITION
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE DELTA
COUNTIES WILL SUFFER THE GREATEST AFFECTS FROM THE WIND THIS
EVENING AND THIS IS ALSO THE ZONE/TIME FRAME WHERE THE GREATEST
ICE AND SLEET WILL FALL. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED AND
MAY FLIRT WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN DELTA.

PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDDAY TOMORROW...WITH
LINGERING NON-ACCUMULATING FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE EAST. NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF...BUT
SPEEDS FROM 5 TO 10 MPH WILL PERSIST TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS COUPLED
WITH THE ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AND CLEARING SKY COVER AS
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
WINDCHILLS AND RECORD OVERNIGHT LOWS. EVEN A FEW MONTHLY LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE CAPTURED.

HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS THE MIDSOUTH THAWS. THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE COLUMN.

THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN TRACK THAT
WILL OPEN AND REMAIN A BROAD WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW PERIODS OF INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK WILL FINALLY WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY MARCH.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (04/12Z-05/12Z)

LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT THE TAF
SITES. KJBR IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE IN THE PERIOD...AFTER 05/07Z. A
STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MENTIONED VCTS AT KTUP BETWEEN 04/17Z AND
04/20Z. RAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO
FREEZING RAIN...THEN SLEET...THEN SNOW. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KJBR AROUND 04/17Z...KMEM AND KMKL
04/23Z...AND KTUP 05/06Z. AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL
SNOW...VLIFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED. WINDS INCREASING FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMING VERY STRONG AND GUSTY
ESPECIALLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-
     POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-
     CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-
     BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
     LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR LAFAYETTE-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR CROCKETT-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-
     WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-
     TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 041002
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
402 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...COLD AIR WAS ALREADY STARTING TO REPLACE OUR MILD
TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
READINGS WILL START TO TUMBLE OVER OTHER PARTS OF THE MID STATE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AT 3 AM CST, A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHED
FROM JUST EAST OF BWG TO JUST EAST OF MEMPHIS, AND SHOULD BE IN
THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA BY 6 AM CST.

PREVIOUS PRECIP AND QPF GRIDS FROM THE LAST SHIFT LOOK EXCELLENT
AND ARE STILL IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS, MAINLY DURING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP WILL STILL BE MAINLY A ZR/IP MIX FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CSV-TO-
LAWRENCEBURG LINE. INDEED, WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP A WATCH OVER THOSE
AREAS IN PARTICULAR TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS
FREEZING RAIN AND BE PREPARED TO UPGRADE OUR ICE ACCUM GRIDS IF
NECESSARY. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
AS SLEET RATHER THAN ZR BUT, OF COURSE, THAT COULD CHANGE. FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE`LL BE DEALING MAINLY WITH A
SLEET AND SNOW MIX EVEN THOUGH IT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISING FOR THE
PRECIP TO START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.

DON`T EXPECT FREEZING TEMPS TO ARRIVE IN OUR NW UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER NOON--PROBABLY AROUND 2 PM OR 3 PM IN THE CKV AREA. BY
NIGHTFALL EXPECT TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO BE GETTING PRETTY SLOPPY
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHLAND RIM AREA, NORTH OF NASHVILLE.
RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT THE TEMP PROBABLY WON`T REACH FREEZING
AT BNA UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM. SO, EVEN THOUGH
NASHVILLE PROPER MAY NOT HAVE BAD ROAD CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, TRAVELERS SHOULD REALIZE THAT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY WORSE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY.

TONIGHT, TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AREA-WIDE AS COLD
AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD. BY MIDNIGHT,
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND BY 6 AM CST OVER THE ENTIRE MID-STATE. STILL
LOOK FOR HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST, WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW AND SLEET EXPECTED TO BE COMMON ALONG THE HIGHLAND RIM AND
NORTHWEST, RANGING TO AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHEAST, WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTHWEST, AND CLOSER TO 1 TO 2
INCHES SOUTHEAST.

SNOW AND SLEET WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THE NORTH
WINDS WILL NOT. IN FACT, LOOK FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE MORNING, AND ONLY REACH THE TEENS IN
THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TOMORROW,
WHILE SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE WEST.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
ALONG FRIGID COLD TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE EXTREME NORTH TO
THE MIDDLE TEENS SOUTH. SNOW-COVERED SPOTS NEAR THE KENTUCKY
BORDER COULD SEE READINGS DROP TO ZERO.

TEMPERATURES FINALLY START TO WARM INTO THE 30S ON FRIDAY.

19

.LONG TERM...LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVER THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER. THE ECMWF BRINGS A GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM ONSHORE AT
THE START OF NEXT WEEK THAT WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH THE
NEXT WEATHER-PRODUCER LATER IN THE WEEK AS A SECOND ONSHORE SYSTEM
TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TOWARD THE MID STATE.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      51  23  26   7 / 100 100  60  05
CLARKSVILLE    41  18  23   2 / 100 100  40  05
CROSSVILLE     58  23  25  10 / 100 100  80  10
COLUMBIA       61  23  27   9 / 100 100  70  05
LAWRENCEBURG   64  23  27  12 / 100 100  70  05
WAVERLY        45  20  25   5 / 100 100  50  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 041002
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
402 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...COLD AIR WAS ALREADY STARTING TO REPLACE OUR MILD
TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
READINGS WILL START TO TUMBLE OVER OTHER PARTS OF THE MID STATE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AT 3 AM CST, A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHED
FROM JUST EAST OF BWG TO JUST EAST OF MEMPHIS, AND SHOULD BE IN
THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA BY 6 AM CST.

PREVIOUS PRECIP AND QPF GRIDS FROM THE LAST SHIFT LOOK EXCELLENT
AND ARE STILL IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS, MAINLY DURING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP WILL STILL BE MAINLY A ZR/IP MIX FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CSV-TO-
LAWRENCEBURG LINE. INDEED, WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP A WATCH OVER THOSE
AREAS IN PARTICULAR TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS
FREEZING RAIN AND BE PREPARED TO UPGRADE OUR ICE ACCUM GRIDS IF
NECESSARY. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
AS SLEET RATHER THAN ZR BUT, OF COURSE, THAT COULD CHANGE. FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE`LL BE DEALING MAINLY WITH A
SLEET AND SNOW MIX EVEN THOUGH IT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISING FOR THE
PRECIP TO START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.

DON`T EXPECT FREEZING TEMPS TO ARRIVE IN OUR NW UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER NOON--PROBABLY AROUND 2 PM OR 3 PM IN THE CKV AREA. BY
NIGHTFALL EXPECT TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO BE GETTING PRETTY SLOPPY
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHLAND RIM AREA, NORTH OF NASHVILLE.
RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT THE TEMP PROBABLY WON`T REACH FREEZING
AT BNA UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM. SO, EVEN THOUGH
NASHVILLE PROPER MAY NOT HAVE BAD ROAD CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, TRAVELERS SHOULD REALIZE THAT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY WORSE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY.

TONIGHT, TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AREA-WIDE AS COLD
AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD. BY MIDNIGHT,
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND BY 6 AM CST OVER THE ENTIRE MID-STATE. STILL
LOOK FOR HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST, WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW AND SLEET EXPECTED TO BE COMMON ALONG THE HIGHLAND RIM AND
NORTHWEST, RANGING TO AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHEAST, WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTHWEST, AND CLOSER TO 1 TO 2
INCHES SOUTHEAST.

SNOW AND SLEET WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THE NORTH
WINDS WILL NOT. IN FACT, LOOK FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE MORNING, AND ONLY REACH THE TEENS IN
THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TOMORROW,
WHILE SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE WEST.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
ALONG FRIGID COLD TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE EXTREME NORTH TO
THE MIDDLE TEENS SOUTH. SNOW-COVERED SPOTS NEAR THE KENTUCKY
BORDER COULD SEE READINGS DROP TO ZERO.

TEMPERATURES FINALLY START TO WARM INTO THE 30S ON FRIDAY.

19

.LONG TERM...LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVER THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER. THE ECMWF BRINGS A GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM ONSHORE AT
THE START OF NEXT WEEK THAT WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH THE
NEXT WEATHER-PRODUCER LATER IN THE WEEK AS A SECOND ONSHORE SYSTEM
TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TOWARD THE MID STATE.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      51  23  26   7 / 100 100  60  05
CLARKSVILLE    41  18  23   2 / 100 100  40  05
CROSSVILLE     58  23  25  10 / 100 100  80  10
COLUMBIA       61  23  27   9 / 100 100  70  05
LAWRENCEBURG   64  23  27  12 / 100 100  70  05
WAVERLY        45  20  25   5 / 100 100  50  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 041002
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
402 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...COLD AIR WAS ALREADY STARTING TO REPLACE OUR MILD
TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
READINGS WILL START TO TUMBLE OVER OTHER PARTS OF THE MID STATE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AT 3 AM CST, A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHED
FROM JUST EAST OF BWG TO JUST EAST OF MEMPHIS, AND SHOULD BE IN
THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA BY 6 AM CST.

PREVIOUS PRECIP AND QPF GRIDS FROM THE LAST SHIFT LOOK EXCELLENT
AND ARE STILL IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS, MAINLY DURING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP WILL STILL BE MAINLY A ZR/IP MIX FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CSV-TO-
LAWRENCEBURG LINE. INDEED, WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP A WATCH OVER THOSE
AREAS IN PARTICULAR TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS
FREEZING RAIN AND BE PREPARED TO UPGRADE OUR ICE ACCUM GRIDS IF
NECESSARY. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
AS SLEET RATHER THAN ZR BUT, OF COURSE, THAT COULD CHANGE. FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE`LL BE DEALING MAINLY WITH A
SLEET AND SNOW MIX EVEN THOUGH IT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISING FOR THE
PRECIP TO START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.

DON`T EXPECT FREEZING TEMPS TO ARRIVE IN OUR NW UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER NOON--PROBABLY AROUND 2 PM OR 3 PM IN THE CKV AREA. BY
NIGHTFALL EXPECT TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO BE GETTING PRETTY SLOPPY
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHLAND RIM AREA, NORTH OF NASHVILLE.
RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT THE TEMP PROBABLY WON`T REACH FREEZING
AT BNA UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM. SO, EVEN THOUGH
NASHVILLE PROPER MAY NOT HAVE BAD ROAD CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, TRAVELERS SHOULD REALIZE THAT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY WORSE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY.

TONIGHT, TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AREA-WIDE AS COLD
AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD. BY MIDNIGHT,
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND BY 6 AM CST OVER THE ENTIRE MID-STATE. STILL
LOOK FOR HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST, WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW AND SLEET EXPECTED TO BE COMMON ALONG THE HIGHLAND RIM AND
NORTHWEST, RANGING TO AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHEAST, WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTHWEST, AND CLOSER TO 1 TO 2
INCHES SOUTHEAST.

SNOW AND SLEET WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THE NORTH
WINDS WILL NOT. IN FACT, LOOK FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE MORNING, AND ONLY REACH THE TEENS IN
THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TOMORROW,
WHILE SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE WEST.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
ALONG FRIGID COLD TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE EXTREME NORTH TO
THE MIDDLE TEENS SOUTH. SNOW-COVERED SPOTS NEAR THE KENTUCKY
BORDER COULD SEE READINGS DROP TO ZERO.

TEMPERATURES FINALLY START TO WARM INTO THE 30S ON FRIDAY.

19

.LONG TERM...LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVER THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER. THE ECMWF BRINGS A GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM ONSHORE AT
THE START OF NEXT WEEK THAT WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH THE
NEXT WEATHER-PRODUCER LATER IN THE WEEK AS A SECOND ONSHORE SYSTEM
TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TOWARD THE MID STATE.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      51  23  26   7 / 100 100  60  05
CLARKSVILLE    41  18  23   2 / 100 100  40  05
CROSSVILLE     58  23  25  10 / 100 100  80  10
COLUMBIA       61  23  27   9 / 100 100  70  05
LAWRENCEBURG   64  23  27  12 / 100 100  70  05
WAVERLY        45  20  25   5 / 100 100  50  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KOHX 041002
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
402 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...COLD AIR WAS ALREADY STARTING TO REPLACE OUR MILD
TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
READINGS WILL START TO TUMBLE OVER OTHER PARTS OF THE MID STATE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AT 3 AM CST, A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHED
FROM JUST EAST OF BWG TO JUST EAST OF MEMPHIS, AND SHOULD BE IN
THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA BY 6 AM CST.

PREVIOUS PRECIP AND QPF GRIDS FROM THE LAST SHIFT LOOK EXCELLENT
AND ARE STILL IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS, MAINLY DURING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP WILL STILL BE MAINLY A ZR/IP MIX FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CSV-TO-
LAWRENCEBURG LINE. INDEED, WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP A WATCH OVER THOSE
AREAS IN PARTICULAR TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS
FREEZING RAIN AND BE PREPARED TO UPGRADE OUR ICE ACCUM GRIDS IF
NECESSARY. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
AS SLEET RATHER THAN ZR BUT, OF COURSE, THAT COULD CHANGE. FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE`LL BE DEALING MAINLY WITH A
SLEET AND SNOW MIX EVEN THOUGH IT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISING FOR THE
PRECIP TO START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.

DON`T EXPECT FREEZING TEMPS TO ARRIVE IN OUR NW UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER NOON--PROBABLY AROUND 2 PM OR 3 PM IN THE CKV AREA. BY
NIGHTFALL EXPECT TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO BE GETTING PRETTY SLOPPY
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHLAND RIM AREA, NORTH OF NASHVILLE.
RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT THE TEMP PROBABLY WON`T REACH FREEZING
AT BNA UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM. SO, EVEN THOUGH
NASHVILLE PROPER MAY NOT HAVE BAD ROAD CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, TRAVELERS SHOULD REALIZE THAT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY WORSE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY.

TONIGHT, TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AREA-WIDE AS COLD
AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD. BY MIDNIGHT,
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND BY 6 AM CST OVER THE ENTIRE MID-STATE. STILL
LOOK FOR HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST, WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW AND SLEET EXPECTED TO BE COMMON ALONG THE HIGHLAND RIM AND
NORTHWEST, RANGING TO AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHEAST, WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTHWEST, AND CLOSER TO 1 TO 2
INCHES SOUTHEAST.

SNOW AND SLEET WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THE NORTH
WINDS WILL NOT. IN FACT, LOOK FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE MORNING, AND ONLY REACH THE TEENS IN
THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TOMORROW,
WHILE SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE WEST.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
ALONG FRIGID COLD TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE EXTREME NORTH TO
THE MIDDLE TEENS SOUTH. SNOW-COVERED SPOTS NEAR THE KENTUCKY
BORDER COULD SEE READINGS DROP TO ZERO.

TEMPERATURES FINALLY START TO WARM INTO THE 30S ON FRIDAY.

19

.LONG TERM...LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVER THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER. THE ECMWF BRINGS A GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM ONSHORE AT
THE START OF NEXT WEEK THAT WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH THE
NEXT WEATHER-PRODUCER LATER IN THE WEEK AS A SECOND ONSHORE SYSTEM
TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TOWARD THE MID STATE.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      51  23  26   7 / 100 100  60  05
CLARKSVILLE    41  18  23   2 / 100 100  40  05
CROSSVILLE     58  23  25  10 / 100 100  80  10
COLUMBIA       61  23  27   9 / 100 100  70  05
LAWRENCEBURG   64  23  27  12 / 100 100  70  05
WAVERLY        45  20  25   5 / 100 100  50  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 041001
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
401 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM BECOMING PHASED OVER THE UPPER PLAINS
AND ROCKIES. CURRENTLY THE MIDSOUTH WAS JUST NOW ENTERING THE
EASTERN MOISTURE PLUME OF THE WARM AIR CONVEYOR BELT...WITH RADAR
INDICATING SHOWERS BREAKING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REFLECTED TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S
OVER THE FAR NORTH WHERE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BACKED TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND MID 60S OVER THE SOUTH WHERE WINDS WERE SOUTHWEST
AND GUSTY. SO THE FRONT WAS LAYING NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR...WITH A
SECONDARY FRONT AND SUBFREEZING AIR ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.

FOR TODAY...HAVE BACKED OFF APPROXIMATELY THREE HOURS WITH THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANGEOVER AND THUS WITH THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS. THIS ALIGNS MORE WITH THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND COORDINATION BETWEEN ADJACENT OFFICES. RAIN MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS THE FRONT WILL SLOW. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI AND
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON..WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE.

SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL IMPACT
THE MIDSOUTH AS THE FREEZING LINE REACHES JONESBORO AND DYERSBURG
AROUND NOON...THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA BY 6 PM...AND TUPELO BY
MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED A FEW MORE COUNTIES IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI TO
THE WARNING BEGINNING THIS EVENING BASED OFF QPF AMOUNTS SEEN IN
THE NEW GUIDANCE. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE CITES OF
CHARLESTON...OXFORD...NEW ALBANY...AND BOONEVILLE. IN ADDITION
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE DELTA
COUNTIES WILL SUFFER THE GREATEST AFFECTS FROM THE WIND THIS
EVENING AND THIS IS ALSO THE ZONE/TIME FRAME WHERE THE GREATEST
ICE AND SLEET WILL FALL. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED AND
MAY FLIRT WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN DELTA.

PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDDAY TOMORROW...WITH
LINGERING NON-ACCUMULATING FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE EAST. NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF...BUT
SPEEDS FROM 5 TO 10 MPH WILL PERSIST TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS COUPLED
WITH THE ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AND CLEARING SKY COVER AS
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
WINDCHILLS AND RECORD OVERNIGHT LOWS. EVEN A FEW MONTHLY LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE CAPTURED.

HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS THE MIDSOUTH THAWS. THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE COLUMN.

THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN TRACK THAT
WILL OPEN AND REMAIN A BROAD WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW PERIODS OF INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK WILL FINALLY WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY MARCH.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM 00Z CONCERNING WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...MEM HAS SCATTERED OUT SIGNIFICANTLY RECENTLY BUT DO NOT
TRUST THIS TREND TO LAST. EXPECT CIGS TO FILL BACK IN AND STAY
IFR/LIFR AFTER 08Z THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. FOG HAS ALSO
DEVELOPED AREA-WIDE AND HAS BEEN DENSE AT TIMES. 1/4SM IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION INTERMITTENTLY OVERNIGHT.

TIMING AND PRECIP TYPE IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE TOMORROW. THE FRONT
WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH DURING THE DAY WITH FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW ALL POSSIBLE. THE CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR
EARLIEST AT NORTHERN TERMINALS AND LATEST AT TUP. WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME VERY GUSTY BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z THURSDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-
     POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-
     CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-
     BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
     LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR LAFAYETTE-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR CROCKETT-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-
     WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-
     TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 041001
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
401 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM BECOMING PHASED OVER THE UPPER PLAINS
AND ROCKIES. CURRENTLY THE MIDSOUTH WAS JUST NOW ENTERING THE
EASTERN MOISTURE PLUME OF THE WARM AIR CONVEYOR BELT...WITH RADAR
INDICATING SHOWERS BREAKING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REFLECTED TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S
OVER THE FAR NORTH WHERE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BACKED TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND MID 60S OVER THE SOUTH WHERE WINDS WERE SOUTHWEST
AND GUSTY. SO THE FRONT WAS LAYING NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR...WITH A
SECONDARY FRONT AND SUBFREEZING AIR ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.

FOR TODAY...HAVE BACKED OFF APPROXIMATELY THREE HOURS WITH THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANGEOVER AND THUS WITH THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS. THIS ALIGNS MORE WITH THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND COORDINATION BETWEEN ADJACENT OFFICES. RAIN MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS THE FRONT WILL SLOW. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI AND
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON..WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE.

SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL IMPACT
THE MIDSOUTH AS THE FREEZING LINE REACHES JONESBORO AND DYERSBURG
AROUND NOON...THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA BY 6 PM...AND TUPELO BY
MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED A FEW MORE COUNTIES IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI TO
THE WARNING BEGINNING THIS EVENING BASED OFF QPF AMOUNTS SEEN IN
THE NEW GUIDANCE. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE CITES OF
CHARLESTON...OXFORD...NEW ALBANY...AND BOONEVILLE. IN ADDITION
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE DELTA
COUNTIES WILL SUFFER THE GREATEST AFFECTS FROM THE WIND THIS
EVENING AND THIS IS ALSO THE ZONE/TIME FRAME WHERE THE GREATEST
ICE AND SLEET WILL FALL. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED AND
MAY FLIRT WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN DELTA.

PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDDAY TOMORROW...WITH
LINGERING NON-ACCUMULATING FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE EAST. NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF...BUT
SPEEDS FROM 5 TO 10 MPH WILL PERSIST TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS COUPLED
WITH THE ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AND CLEARING SKY COVER AS
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
WINDCHILLS AND RECORD OVERNIGHT LOWS. EVEN A FEW MONTHLY LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE CAPTURED.

HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS THE MIDSOUTH THAWS. THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE COLUMN.

THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN TRACK THAT
WILL OPEN AND REMAIN A BROAD WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW PERIODS OF INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK WILL FINALLY WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY MARCH.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM 00Z CONCERNING WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...MEM HAS SCATTERED OUT SIGNIFICANTLY RECENTLY BUT DO NOT
TRUST THIS TREND TO LAST. EXPECT CIGS TO FILL BACK IN AND STAY
IFR/LIFR AFTER 08Z THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. FOG HAS ALSO
DEVELOPED AREA-WIDE AND HAS BEEN DENSE AT TIMES. 1/4SM IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION INTERMITTENTLY OVERNIGHT.

TIMING AND PRECIP TYPE IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE TOMORROW. THE FRONT
WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH DURING THE DAY WITH FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW ALL POSSIBLE. THE CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR
EARLIEST AT NORTHERN TERMINALS AND LATEST AT TUP. WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME VERY GUSTY BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z THURSDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-
     POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-
     CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-
     BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
     LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR LAFAYETTE-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR CROCKETT-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-
     WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-
     TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 041001
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
401 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM BECOMING PHASED OVER THE UPPER PLAINS
AND ROCKIES. CURRENTLY THE MIDSOUTH WAS JUST NOW ENTERING THE
EASTERN MOISTURE PLUME OF THE WARM AIR CONVEYOR BELT...WITH RADAR
INDICATING SHOWERS BREAKING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REFLECTED TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S
OVER THE FAR NORTH WHERE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BACKED TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND MID 60S OVER THE SOUTH WHERE WINDS WERE SOUTHWEST
AND GUSTY. SO THE FRONT WAS LAYING NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR...WITH A
SECONDARY FRONT AND SUBFREEZING AIR ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.

FOR TODAY...HAVE BACKED OFF APPROXIMATELY THREE HOURS WITH THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANGEOVER AND THUS WITH THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS. THIS ALIGNS MORE WITH THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND COORDINATION BETWEEN ADJACENT OFFICES. RAIN MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS THE FRONT WILL SLOW. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI AND
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON..WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE.

SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL IMPACT
THE MIDSOUTH AS THE FREEZING LINE REACHES JONESBORO AND DYERSBURG
AROUND NOON...THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA BY 6 PM...AND TUPELO BY
MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED A FEW MORE COUNTIES IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI TO
THE WARNING BEGINNING THIS EVENING BASED OFF QPF AMOUNTS SEEN IN
THE NEW GUIDANCE. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE CITES OF
CHARLESTON...OXFORD...NEW ALBANY...AND BOONEVILLE. IN ADDITION
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE DELTA
COUNTIES WILL SUFFER THE GREATEST AFFECTS FROM THE WIND THIS
EVENING AND THIS IS ALSO THE ZONE/TIME FRAME WHERE THE GREATEST
ICE AND SLEET WILL FALL. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED AND
MAY FLIRT WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN DELTA.

PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDDAY TOMORROW...WITH
LINGERING NON-ACCUMULATING FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE EAST. NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF...BUT
SPEEDS FROM 5 TO 10 MPH WILL PERSIST TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS COUPLED
WITH THE ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AND CLEARING SKY COVER AS
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
WINDCHILLS AND RECORD OVERNIGHT LOWS. EVEN A FEW MONTHLY LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE CAPTURED.

HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS THE MIDSOUTH THAWS. THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE COLUMN.

THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN TRACK THAT
WILL OPEN AND REMAIN A BROAD WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW PERIODS OF INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK WILL FINALLY WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY MARCH.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM 00Z CONCERNING WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...MEM HAS SCATTERED OUT SIGNIFICANTLY RECENTLY BUT DO NOT
TRUST THIS TREND TO LAST. EXPECT CIGS TO FILL BACK IN AND STAY
IFR/LIFR AFTER 08Z THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. FOG HAS ALSO
DEVELOPED AREA-WIDE AND HAS BEEN DENSE AT TIMES. 1/4SM IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION INTERMITTENTLY OVERNIGHT.

TIMING AND PRECIP TYPE IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE TOMORROW. THE FRONT
WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH DURING THE DAY WITH FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW ALL POSSIBLE. THE CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR
EARLIEST AT NORTHERN TERMINALS AND LATEST AT TUP. WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME VERY GUSTY BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z THURSDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-
     POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-
     CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-
     BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
     LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR LAFAYETTE-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR CROCKETT-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-
     WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-
     TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 041001
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
401 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM BECOMING PHASED OVER THE UPPER PLAINS
AND ROCKIES. CURRENTLY THE MIDSOUTH WAS JUST NOW ENTERING THE
EASTERN MOISTURE PLUME OF THE WARM AIR CONVEYOR BELT...WITH RADAR
INDICATING SHOWERS BREAKING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REFLECTED TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S
OVER THE FAR NORTH WHERE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BACKED TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND MID 60S OVER THE SOUTH WHERE WINDS WERE SOUTHWEST
AND GUSTY. SO THE FRONT WAS LAYING NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR...WITH A
SECONDARY FRONT AND SUBFREEZING AIR ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.

FOR TODAY...HAVE BACKED OFF APPROXIMATELY THREE HOURS WITH THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANGEOVER AND THUS WITH THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS. THIS ALIGNS MORE WITH THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND COORDINATION BETWEEN ADJACENT OFFICES. RAIN MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS THE FRONT WILL SLOW. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI AND
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON..WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE.

SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL IMPACT
THE MIDSOUTH AS THE FREEZING LINE REACHES JONESBORO AND DYERSBURG
AROUND NOON...THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA BY 6 PM...AND TUPELO BY
MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED A FEW MORE COUNTIES IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI TO
THE WARNING BEGINNING THIS EVENING BASED OFF QPF AMOUNTS SEEN IN
THE NEW GUIDANCE. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE CITES OF
CHARLESTON...OXFORD...NEW ALBANY...AND BOONEVILLE. IN ADDITION
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE DELTA
COUNTIES WILL SUFFER THE GREATEST AFFECTS FROM THE WIND THIS
EVENING AND THIS IS ALSO THE ZONE/TIME FRAME WHERE THE GREATEST
ICE AND SLEET WILL FALL. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED AND
MAY FLIRT WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN DELTA.

PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDDAY TOMORROW...WITH
LINGERING NON-ACCUMULATING FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE EAST. NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF...BUT
SPEEDS FROM 5 TO 10 MPH WILL PERSIST TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS COUPLED
WITH THE ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AND CLEARING SKY COVER AS
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
WINDCHILLS AND RECORD OVERNIGHT LOWS. EVEN A FEW MONTHLY LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE CAPTURED.

HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS THE MIDSOUTH THAWS. THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE COLUMN.

THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN TRACK THAT
WILL OPEN AND REMAIN A BROAD WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW PERIODS OF INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK WILL FINALLY WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY MARCH.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM 00Z CONCERNING WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...MEM HAS SCATTERED OUT SIGNIFICANTLY RECENTLY BUT DO NOT
TRUST THIS TREND TO LAST. EXPECT CIGS TO FILL BACK IN AND STAY
IFR/LIFR AFTER 08Z THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. FOG HAS ALSO
DEVELOPED AREA-WIDE AND HAS BEEN DENSE AT TIMES. 1/4SM IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION INTERMITTENTLY OVERNIGHT.

TIMING AND PRECIP TYPE IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE TOMORROW. THE FRONT
WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH DURING THE DAY WITH FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW ALL POSSIBLE. THE CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR
EARLIEST AT NORTHERN TERMINALS AND LATEST AT TUP. WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME VERY GUSTY BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z THURSDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-
     POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-
     CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-
     BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
     LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR LAFAYETTE-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR CROCKETT-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-
     WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-
     TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 040828
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
304 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM.  STRONG
WARM ADVECTION AND 850MB JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING INCREASED WINDS...WARM AND MOIST AIR AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
INTO THE AREA TODAY.  AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG
COLD ADVECTION TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  WARM AIR
ALOFT WITH A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL CHANGE
ASSOCIATED RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SLEET AND SNOW.  THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE TIMING OF THE
COLD AIR AND WHEN WILL THE TRANSITION OF RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN AND
THEN TO SNOW OCCUR.  ON THURSDAY...THE HIGH FOR THE DAY WILL OCCUR
EARLY IN THE MORNING...THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN EARLY IN
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  BY THE
END OF THE DAY...PRECIP SHOULD HAVE TRANSITIONED TO ALL SNOW WITH
THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW EXITING THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND MAYBE LEE AND WISE COUNTIES IN VA THAT
THE COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A TENTH TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION ALONG WITH A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF SNOW.  THEREFORE...WILL UPGRADE THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER WATCH TO A WARNING.  THE REST OF THE WATCH AREA...CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER AND WILL CONTINUE THE WATCH FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT OVERALL...AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.  MAY BE A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS
EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
PRECIP FREE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND LINGERS OVER THE
REGION.  EXPECT A WARMING TREND AS WELL.  MODELS HINT AT SOME WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS SOMETIME DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST...BUT DO NOT AGREE ON TIMING.  FOR
NOW WILL KEEP SUNDAY AND MONDAY DRY AND CARRY LOW POPS ON
TUESDAY...CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             67  37  38  22 /  80  90 100  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  62  35  36  18 /  80  90 100  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       61  33  34  18 /  80  90 100  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              60  33  33  17 /  80  90 100  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-WISE.

&&

$$

MJB/LW



000
FXUS64 KMRX 040828
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
304 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM.  STRONG
WARM ADVECTION AND 850MB JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING INCREASED WINDS...WARM AND MOIST AIR AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
INTO THE AREA TODAY.  AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG
COLD ADVECTION TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  WARM AIR
ALOFT WITH A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL CHANGE
ASSOCIATED RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SLEET AND SNOW.  THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE TIMING OF THE
COLD AIR AND WHEN WILL THE TRANSITION OF RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN AND
THEN TO SNOW OCCUR.  ON THURSDAY...THE HIGH FOR THE DAY WILL OCCUR
EARLY IN THE MORNING...THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN EARLY IN
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  BY THE
END OF THE DAY...PRECIP SHOULD HAVE TRANSITIONED TO ALL SNOW WITH
THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW EXITING THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND MAYBE LEE AND WISE COUNTIES IN VA THAT
THE COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A TENTH TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION ALONG WITH A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF SNOW.  THEREFORE...WILL UPGRADE THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER WATCH TO A WARNING.  THE REST OF THE WATCH AREA...CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER AND WILL CONTINUE THE WATCH FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT OVERALL...AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.  MAY BE A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS
EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
PRECIP FREE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND LINGERS OVER THE
REGION.  EXPECT A WARMING TREND AS WELL.  MODELS HINT AT SOME WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS SOMETIME DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST...BUT DO NOT AGREE ON TIMING.  FOR
NOW WILL KEEP SUNDAY AND MONDAY DRY AND CARRY LOW POPS ON
TUESDAY...CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             67  37  38  22 /  80  90 100  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  62  35  36  18 /  80  90 100  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       61  33  34  18 /  80  90 100  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              60  33  33  17 /  80  90 100  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-WISE.

&&

$$

MJB/LW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 040828
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
304 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM.  STRONG
WARM ADVECTION AND 850MB JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING INCREASED WINDS...WARM AND MOIST AIR AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
INTO THE AREA TODAY.  AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG
COLD ADVECTION TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  WARM AIR
ALOFT WITH A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL CHANGE
ASSOCIATED RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SLEET AND SNOW.  THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE TIMING OF THE
COLD AIR AND WHEN WILL THE TRANSITION OF RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN AND
THEN TO SNOW OCCUR.  ON THURSDAY...THE HIGH FOR THE DAY WILL OCCUR
EARLY IN THE MORNING...THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN EARLY IN
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  BY THE
END OF THE DAY...PRECIP SHOULD HAVE TRANSITIONED TO ALL SNOW WITH
THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW EXITING THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND MAYBE LEE AND WISE COUNTIES IN VA THAT
THE COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A TENTH TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION ALONG WITH A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF SNOW.  THEREFORE...WILL UPGRADE THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER WATCH TO A WARNING.  THE REST OF THE WATCH AREA...CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER AND WILL CONTINUE THE WATCH FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT OVERALL...AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.  MAY BE A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS
EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
PRECIP FREE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND LINGERS OVER THE
REGION.  EXPECT A WARMING TREND AS WELL.  MODELS HINT AT SOME WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS SOMETIME DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST...BUT DO NOT AGREE ON TIMING.  FOR
NOW WILL KEEP SUNDAY AND MONDAY DRY AND CARRY LOW POPS ON
TUESDAY...CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             67  37  38  22 /  80  90 100  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  62  35  36  18 /  80  90 100  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       61  33  34  18 /  80  90 100  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              60  33  33  17 /  80  90 100  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-WISE.

&&

$$

MJB/LW



000
FXUS64 KMEG 040535
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1135 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS BELOW...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVER NORTH MS AND EAST AR HAD EXPANDED EAST OF
THE MS RIVER AT MIDEVENING. DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED
INTO WEST TN WHERE VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH LATE EVENING.

QUICK LOOK AT THE NEWLY ARRIVED 00Z GFS SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE FROM
THE 18Z RUN. THE MIDSOUTH IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE TWEAKED THE GRIDS SLIGHTLY TO
INCLUDE/EXTEND FREEZING RAIN AND ICE ACCUMULATION OVER NORTH MS
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND EARLY MORNING THURSDAY...BASED ON 18Z GFS
SOUNDINGS AND IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TIMING CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON WITH RESPECT TO
THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM. IN A NUTSHELL THINGS LOOK TO HAVE
SLOWED DOWN A BIT MEANING RAIN WILL LAST LONGER...BEFORE THE
CANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. ADDITIONALLY SLEET
AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE INCREASED...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE.

AS THE RESULT OF FOG EARLY IN THE DAY AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES DID NOT QUITE MAKE THEIR MARK TODAY.
MIDDLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO THE LOW 60S IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED TO
RESPOND TO A A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS...BUT WE ARE FINALLY
BEGINNING TO SEE SPEEDS IN THE 10KT RANGE. DEEP MOISTURE FROM
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI HAS MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH...SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT ENHANCING LIFT. AS A RESULT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT DO NOT LOOK AS LIKELY AS THEY
DID 24 HOURS OR SO AGO.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WARMEST WE SEE FOR QUITE
SOMETIME...POSSIBLY FOR A WEEK OR LONGER. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...MAYBE COOLING
A BIT TOWARD MORNING...BUT THE REAL COOLDOWN WILL TAKE PLACE
TOMORROW. FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD ARRIVE IN NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS MID MORNING...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AROUND
NOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH EXCEPT EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI MAY NOT REACH FREEZING UNTIL JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND THAT SLEET AND SNOW CAN FALL WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AS WARM AS 37 DEGREES IN SOME
SITUATIONS...SO DON`T RELY ON THE FREEZING LINE TO DETERMINE WHEN
SHOW/SLEET MAY BEGIN. FREEZING RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE A LESSER
THREAT...MAYBE AS HIGH AS ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH IN EAST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
THREAT WILL COME FROM ACCUMULATING SLEET. SLEET CAN ACCUMULATE AT
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING...EVEN WARMER THAN SNOW. UP TO 6
INCHES OF SLEET MAY ACCUMULATE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. WITH MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE
AND EAST ARKANSAS SEEING 2-4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO COOL OVERNIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AROUND WELL INTO THE DAY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EVEN
FURTHER IN TIME. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING...AND IF SIGNIFICANT SLEET/SNOW IN ON THE GROUND AS
EXPECTED...MAKING IT INTO THE UPPER 20S MIGHT BE OPTIMISTIC. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION WILL LINGER.

FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY
MAY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING...BUT ONCE AGAIN...IF SIGNIFICANT
SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LINGER CLIMBING OUT OF THE MID 30S MIGHT
BE A STRUGGLE. MORNING LOWS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID TEENS. HOPEFULLY WE WILL ALL SEE ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...BUT MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER...BUT REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN BY TUESDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

30

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM 00Z CONCERNING WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...MEM HAS SCATTERED OUT SIGNIFICANTLY RECENTLY BUT DO NOT
TRUST THIS TREND TO LAST. EXPECT CIGS TO FILL BACK IN AND STAY
IFR/LIFR AFTER 08Z THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. FOG HAS ALSO
DEVELOPED AREA-WIDE AND HAS BEEN DENSE AT TIMES. 1/4SM IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION INTERMITTENTLY OVERNIGHT.

TIMING AND PRECIP TYPE IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE TOMORROW. THE FRONT
WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH DURING THE DAY WITH FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW ALL POSSIBLE. THE CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR
EARLIEST AT NORTHERN TERMINALS AND LATEST AT TUP. WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME VERY GUSTY BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z THURSDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-
     POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-COAHOMA-DESOTO-LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-
     TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MONROE-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CROCKETT-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-
     WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 040534
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1234 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE. SHOWERS
AROUND AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY EARLY AND AGAIN LATE. SOME LOW
CIGS/VIS TO START...THEN EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS. LOWERING
CIGS/VIS AGAIN LATE. LOW LEVEL JET QUITE STRONG EARLY...AND WILL
INCLUDE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ALL SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-
     ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 040534
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1234 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE. SHOWERS
AROUND AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY EARLY AND AGAIN LATE. SOME LOW
CIGS/VIS TO START...THEN EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS. LOWERING
CIGS/VIS AGAIN LATE. LOW LEVEL JET QUITE STRONG EARLY...AND WILL
INCLUDE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ALL SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-
     ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 040534
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1234 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE. SHOWERS
AROUND AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY EARLY AND AGAIN LATE. SOME LOW
CIGS/VIS TO START...THEN EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS. LOWERING
CIGS/VIS AGAIN LATE. LOW LEVEL JET QUITE STRONG EARLY...AND WILL
INCLUDE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ALL SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-
     ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 040534
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1234 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE. SHOWERS
AROUND AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY EARLY AND AGAIN LATE. SOME LOW
CIGS/VIS TO START...THEN EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS. LOWERING
CIGS/VIS AGAIN LATE. LOW LEVEL JET QUITE STRONG EARLY...AND WILL
INCLUDE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ALL SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-
     ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 040534
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1234 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE. SHOWERS
AROUND AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY EARLY AND AGAIN LATE. SOME LOW
CIGS/VIS TO START...THEN EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS. LOWERING
CIGS/VIS AGAIN LATE. LOW LEVEL JET QUITE STRONG EARLY...AND WILL
INCLUDE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ALL SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-
     ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 040534
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1234 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE. SHOWERS
AROUND AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY EARLY AND AGAIN LATE. SOME LOW
CIGS/VIS TO START...THEN EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS. LOWERING
CIGS/VIS AGAIN LATE. LOW LEVEL JET QUITE STRONG EARLY...AND WILL
INCLUDE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ALL SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-
     ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 040508
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1108 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
...POOR FLYING WEATHER CONTINUES BEYOND 24 HOURS WITH LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...

COLD FRONT HAS JUST PASSED PADUCAH AND EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF
OHIO RIVER SOUTH OF LOUISVILLE DOWN THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO SLEET AND RAIN MIX BY NOON OR
SHORTLY AFTER NOON IN THE CLARKSVILLE AREA...THEN ALL SLEET BY 3 PM
CST AND CHANGE TO ALL SNOW DURING THE EARLY PART OF WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE A LITTLE PAST 15Z THURSDAY.

AS FOR NASHVILLE...THE RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET BY 6 PM
CST WEDNESDAY THEN CHANGE TO ALL SLEET DURING THE MID EVENING AND
BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY. THE SNOW IN NASHVILLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT NOON ON THURSDAY.

AS FOR CROSSVILLE...LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN CHANGE TO SLEET AROUND 3 AM CST THURSDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9 AM CST THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW AROUND 18Z.

ANY FREEZING RAIN THAT MIGHT OCCUR WOULD BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 040508
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1108 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
...POOR FLYING WEATHER CONTINUES BEYOND 24 HOURS WITH LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...

COLD FRONT HAS JUST PASSED PADUCAH AND EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF
OHIO RIVER SOUTH OF LOUISVILLE DOWN THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO SLEET AND RAIN MIX BY NOON OR
SHORTLY AFTER NOON IN THE CLARKSVILLE AREA...THEN ALL SLEET BY 3 PM
CST AND CHANGE TO ALL SNOW DURING THE EARLY PART OF WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE A LITTLE PAST 15Z THURSDAY.

AS FOR NASHVILLE...THE RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET BY 6 PM
CST WEDNESDAY THEN CHANGE TO ALL SLEET DURING THE MID EVENING AND
BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY. THE SNOW IN NASHVILLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT NOON ON THURSDAY.

AS FOR CROSSVILLE...LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN CHANGE TO SLEET AROUND 3 AM CST THURSDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9 AM CST THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW AROUND 18Z.

ANY FREEZING RAIN THAT MIGHT OCCUR WOULD BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 040508
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1108 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
...POOR FLYING WEATHER CONTINUES BEYOND 24 HOURS WITH LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...

COLD FRONT HAS JUST PASSED PADUCAH AND EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF
OHIO RIVER SOUTH OF LOUISVILLE DOWN THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO SLEET AND RAIN MIX BY NOON OR
SHORTLY AFTER NOON IN THE CLARKSVILLE AREA...THEN ALL SLEET BY 3 PM
CST AND CHANGE TO ALL SNOW DURING THE EARLY PART OF WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE A LITTLE PAST 15Z THURSDAY.

AS FOR NASHVILLE...THE RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET BY 6 PM
CST WEDNESDAY THEN CHANGE TO ALL SLEET DURING THE MID EVENING AND
BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY. THE SNOW IN NASHVILLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT NOON ON THURSDAY.

AS FOR CROSSVILLE...LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN CHANGE TO SLEET AROUND 3 AM CST THURSDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9 AM CST THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW AROUND 18Z.

ANY FREEZING RAIN THAT MIGHT OCCUR WOULD BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 040508
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1108 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
...POOR FLYING WEATHER CONTINUES BEYOND 24 HOURS WITH LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...

COLD FRONT HAS JUST PASSED PADUCAH AND EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF
OHIO RIVER SOUTH OF LOUISVILLE DOWN THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO SLEET AND RAIN MIX BY NOON OR
SHORTLY AFTER NOON IN THE CLARKSVILLE AREA...THEN ALL SLEET BY 3 PM
CST AND CHANGE TO ALL SNOW DURING THE EARLY PART OF WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE A LITTLE PAST 15Z THURSDAY.

AS FOR NASHVILLE...THE RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET BY 6 PM
CST WEDNESDAY THEN CHANGE TO ALL SLEET DURING THE MID EVENING AND
BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY. THE SNOW IN NASHVILLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT NOON ON THURSDAY.

AS FOR CROSSVILLE...LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN CHANGE TO SLEET AROUND 3 AM CST THURSDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9 AM CST THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW AROUND 18Z.

ANY FREEZING RAIN THAT MIGHT OCCUR WOULD BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 040508
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1108 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
...POOR FLYING WEATHER CONTINUES BEYOND 24 HOURS WITH LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...

COLD FRONT HAS JUST PASSED PADUCAH AND EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF
OHIO RIVER SOUTH OF LOUISVILLE DOWN THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO SLEET AND RAIN MIX BY NOON OR
SHORTLY AFTER NOON IN THE CLARKSVILLE AREA...THEN ALL SLEET BY 3 PM
CST AND CHANGE TO ALL SNOW DURING THE EARLY PART OF WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE A LITTLE PAST 15Z THURSDAY.

AS FOR NASHVILLE...THE RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET BY 6 PM
CST WEDNESDAY THEN CHANGE TO ALL SLEET DURING THE MID EVENING AND
BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY. THE SNOW IN NASHVILLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT NOON ON THURSDAY.

AS FOR CROSSVILLE...LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN CHANGE TO SLEET AROUND 3 AM CST THURSDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9 AM CST THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW AROUND 18Z.

ANY FREEZING RAIN THAT MIGHT OCCUR WOULD BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 040508
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1108 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
...POOR FLYING WEATHER CONTINUES BEYOND 24 HOURS WITH LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...

COLD FRONT HAS JUST PASSED PADUCAH AND EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF
OHIO RIVER SOUTH OF LOUISVILLE DOWN THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO SLEET AND RAIN MIX BY NOON OR
SHORTLY AFTER NOON IN THE CLARKSVILLE AREA...THEN ALL SLEET BY 3 PM
CST AND CHANGE TO ALL SNOW DURING THE EARLY PART OF WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE A LITTLE PAST 15Z THURSDAY.

AS FOR NASHVILLE...THE RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET BY 6 PM
CST WEDNESDAY THEN CHANGE TO ALL SLEET DURING THE MID EVENING AND
BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY. THE SNOW IN NASHVILLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT NOON ON THURSDAY.

AS FOR CROSSVILLE...LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN CHANGE TO SLEET AROUND 3 AM CST THURSDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9 AM CST THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW AROUND 18Z.

ANY FREEZING RAIN THAT MIGHT OCCUR WOULD BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KMEG 040359 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
959 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVER NORTH MS AND EAST AR HAD EXPANDED EAST OF
THE MS RIVER AT MIDEVENING. DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED
INTO WEST TN WHERE VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH LATE EVENING.

QUICK LOOK AT THE NEWLY ARRIVED 00Z GFS SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE FROM
THE 18Z RUN. THE MIDSOUTH IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE TWEAKED THE GRIDS SLIGHTLY TO
INCLUDE/EXTEND FREEZING RAIN AND ICE ACCUMULATION OVER NORTH MS
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND EARLY MORNING THURSDAY...BASED ON 18Z GFS
SOUNDINGS AND IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS BELOW...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TIMING CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON WITH RESPECT TO
THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM. IN A NUTSHELL THINGS LOOK TO HAVE
SLOWED DOWN A BIT MEANING RAIN WILL LAST LONGER...BEFORE THE
CANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. ADDITIONALLY SLEET
AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE INCREASED...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE.

AS THE RESULT OF FOG EARLY IN THE DAY AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES DID NOT QUITE MAKE THEIR MARK TODAY.
MIDDLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO THE LOW 60S IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED TO
RESPOND TO A A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS...BUT WE ARE FINALLY
BEGINNING TO SEE SPEEDS IN THE 10KT RANGE. DEEP MOISTURE FROM
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI HAS MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH...SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT ENHANCING LIFT. AS A RESULT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT DO NOT LOOK AS LIKELY AS THEY
DID 24 HOURS OR SO AGO.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WARMEST WE SEE FOR QUITE
SOMETIME...POSSIBLY FOR A WEEK OR LONGER. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...MAYBE COOLING
A BIT TOWARD MORNING...BUT THE REAL COOLDOWN WILL TAKE PLACE
TOMORROW. FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD ARRIVE IN NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS MID MORNING...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AROUND
NOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH EXCEPT EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI MAY NOT REACH FREEZING UNTIL JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND THAT SLEET AND SNOW CAN FALL WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AS WARM AS 37 DEGREES IN SOME
SITUATIONS...SO DON`T RELY ON THE FREEZING LINE TO DETERMINE WHEN
SHOW/SLEET MAY BEGIN. FREEZING RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE A LESSER
THREAT...MAYBE AS HIGH AS ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH IN EAST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
THREAT WILL COME FROM ACCUMULATING SLEET. SLEET CAN ACCUMULATE AT
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING...EVEN WARMER THAN SNOW. UP TO 6
INCHES OF SLEET MAY ACCUMULATE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. WITH MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE
AND EAST ARKANSAS SEEING 2-4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO COOL OVERNIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AROUND WELL INTO THE DAY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EVEN
FURTHER IN TIME. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING...AND IF SIGNIFICANT SLEET/SNOW IN ON THE GROUND AS
EXPECTED...MAKING IT INTO THE UPPER 20S MIGHT BE OPTIMISTIC. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION WILL LINGER.

FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY
MAY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING...BUT ONCE AGAIN...IF SIGNIFICANT
SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LINGER CLIMBING OUT OF THE MID 30S MIGHT
BE A STRUGGLE. MORNING LOWS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID TEENS. HOPEFULLY WE WILL ALL SEE ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...BUT MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER...BUT REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN BY TUESDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

30

AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD FEATURE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE THE FIRST 6 HOURS AS A
WARM FRONT HAS BEEN LIFTING NORTH. TUP HAS SCATTERED OUT TO 2700
FT BUT HAS BEEN ERRATIC OVER THE LAST HOUR. MEM HAS ALSO SHOWN
SOME TENDENCY TO LIFT...BUT LIFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL NOTED SOUTH.
BELIEVE THAT THIS BRIEF REPRIEVE SHOULD LAST FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 6
HOURS BEFORE CEILINGS CRASH ONCE MORE. THUNDER HAS BEEN INSERTED
AT JBR AND TUP OVERNIGHT AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTED IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS SHOULD BE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AT JBR AND BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z AT TUP.

DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...A FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT ALONG WITH A CHANGE IN PRECIP TYPE AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
TUP. BELIEVE THE CHANGE WILL OCCUR AROUND 16Z AT JBR WITH A LATER
CHANGE AT MEM AND MKL...TOWARD 23Z. FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND
SNOW ARE ALL POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
IFR/LIFR CIGS. WINDS WILL ALSO CHANGE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
SUSTAINED NEAR 12 KT GUSTING TO 18 KTS.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-
     POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-COAHOMA-DESOTO-LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-
     TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MONROE-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CROCKETT-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-
     WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 040359 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
959 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVER NORTH MS AND EAST AR HAD EXPANDED EAST OF
THE MS RIVER AT MIDEVENING. DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED
INTO WEST TN WHERE VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH LATE EVENING.

QUICK LOOK AT THE NEWLY ARRIVED 00Z GFS SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE FROM
THE 18Z RUN. THE MIDSOUTH IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE TWEAKED THE GRIDS SLIGHTLY TO
INCLUDE/EXTEND FREEZING RAIN AND ICE ACCUMULATION OVER NORTH MS
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND EARLY MORNING THURSDAY...BASED ON 18Z GFS
SOUNDINGS AND IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS BELOW...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TIMING CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON WITH RESPECT TO
THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM. IN A NUTSHELL THINGS LOOK TO HAVE
SLOWED DOWN A BIT MEANING RAIN WILL LAST LONGER...BEFORE THE
CANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. ADDITIONALLY SLEET
AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE INCREASED...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE.

AS THE RESULT OF FOG EARLY IN THE DAY AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES DID NOT QUITE MAKE THEIR MARK TODAY.
MIDDLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO THE LOW 60S IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED TO
RESPOND TO A A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS...BUT WE ARE FINALLY
BEGINNING TO SEE SPEEDS IN THE 10KT RANGE. DEEP MOISTURE FROM
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI HAS MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH...SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT ENHANCING LIFT. AS A RESULT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT DO NOT LOOK AS LIKELY AS THEY
DID 24 HOURS OR SO AGO.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WARMEST WE SEE FOR QUITE
SOMETIME...POSSIBLY FOR A WEEK OR LONGER. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...MAYBE COOLING
A BIT TOWARD MORNING...BUT THE REAL COOLDOWN WILL TAKE PLACE
TOMORROW. FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD ARRIVE IN NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS MID MORNING...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AROUND
NOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH EXCEPT EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI MAY NOT REACH FREEZING UNTIL JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND THAT SLEET AND SNOW CAN FALL WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AS WARM AS 37 DEGREES IN SOME
SITUATIONS...SO DON`T RELY ON THE FREEZING LINE TO DETERMINE WHEN
SHOW/SLEET MAY BEGIN. FREEZING RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE A LESSER
THREAT...MAYBE AS HIGH AS ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH IN EAST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
THREAT WILL COME FROM ACCUMULATING SLEET. SLEET CAN ACCUMULATE AT
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING...EVEN WARMER THAN SNOW. UP TO 6
INCHES OF SLEET MAY ACCUMULATE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. WITH MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE
AND EAST ARKANSAS SEEING 2-4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO COOL OVERNIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AROUND WELL INTO THE DAY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EVEN
FURTHER IN TIME. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING...AND IF SIGNIFICANT SLEET/SNOW IN ON THE GROUND AS
EXPECTED...MAKING IT INTO THE UPPER 20S MIGHT BE OPTIMISTIC. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION WILL LINGER.

FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY
MAY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING...BUT ONCE AGAIN...IF SIGNIFICANT
SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LINGER CLIMBING OUT OF THE MID 30S MIGHT
BE A STRUGGLE. MORNING LOWS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID TEENS. HOPEFULLY WE WILL ALL SEE ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...BUT MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER...BUT REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN BY TUESDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

30

AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD FEATURE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE THE FIRST 6 HOURS AS A
WARM FRONT HAS BEEN LIFTING NORTH. TUP HAS SCATTERED OUT TO 2700
FT BUT HAS BEEN ERRATIC OVER THE LAST HOUR. MEM HAS ALSO SHOWN
SOME TENDENCY TO LIFT...BUT LIFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL NOTED SOUTH.
BELIEVE THAT THIS BRIEF REPRIEVE SHOULD LAST FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 6
HOURS BEFORE CEILINGS CRASH ONCE MORE. THUNDER HAS BEEN INSERTED
AT JBR AND TUP OVERNIGHT AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTED IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS SHOULD BE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AT JBR AND BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z AT TUP.

DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...A FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT ALONG WITH A CHANGE IN PRECIP TYPE AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
TUP. BELIEVE THE CHANGE WILL OCCUR AROUND 16Z AT JBR WITH A LATER
CHANGE AT MEM AND MKL...TOWARD 23Z. FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND
SNOW ARE ALL POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
IFR/LIFR CIGS. WINDS WILL ALSO CHANGE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
SUSTAINED NEAR 12 KT GUSTING TO 18 KTS.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-
     POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-COAHOMA-DESOTO-LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-
     TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MONROE-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CROCKETT-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-
     WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 040359 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
959 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVER NORTH MS AND EAST AR HAD EXPANDED EAST OF
THE MS RIVER AT MIDEVENING. DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED
INTO WEST TN WHERE VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH LATE EVENING.

QUICK LOOK AT THE NEWLY ARRIVED 00Z GFS SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE FROM
THE 18Z RUN. THE MIDSOUTH IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE TWEAKED THE GRIDS SLIGHTLY TO
INCLUDE/EXTEND FREEZING RAIN AND ICE ACCUMULATION OVER NORTH MS
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND EARLY MORNING THURSDAY...BASED ON 18Z GFS
SOUNDINGS AND IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS BELOW...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TIMING CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON WITH RESPECT TO
THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM. IN A NUTSHELL THINGS LOOK TO HAVE
SLOWED DOWN A BIT MEANING RAIN WILL LAST LONGER...BEFORE THE
CANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. ADDITIONALLY SLEET
AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE INCREASED...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE.

AS THE RESULT OF FOG EARLY IN THE DAY AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES DID NOT QUITE MAKE THEIR MARK TODAY.
MIDDLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO THE LOW 60S IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED TO
RESPOND TO A A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS...BUT WE ARE FINALLY
BEGINNING TO SEE SPEEDS IN THE 10KT RANGE. DEEP MOISTURE FROM
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI HAS MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH...SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT ENHANCING LIFT. AS A RESULT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT DO NOT LOOK AS LIKELY AS THEY
DID 24 HOURS OR SO AGO.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WARMEST WE SEE FOR QUITE
SOMETIME...POSSIBLY FOR A WEEK OR LONGER. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...MAYBE COOLING
A BIT TOWARD MORNING...BUT THE REAL COOLDOWN WILL TAKE PLACE
TOMORROW. FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD ARRIVE IN NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS MID MORNING...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AROUND
NOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH EXCEPT EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI MAY NOT REACH FREEZING UNTIL JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND THAT SLEET AND SNOW CAN FALL WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AS WARM AS 37 DEGREES IN SOME
SITUATIONS...SO DON`T RELY ON THE FREEZING LINE TO DETERMINE WHEN
SHOW/SLEET MAY BEGIN. FREEZING RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE A LESSER
THREAT...MAYBE AS HIGH AS ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH IN EAST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
THREAT WILL COME FROM ACCUMULATING SLEET. SLEET CAN ACCUMULATE AT
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING...EVEN WARMER THAN SNOW. UP TO 6
INCHES OF SLEET MAY ACCUMULATE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. WITH MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE
AND EAST ARKANSAS SEEING 2-4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO COOL OVERNIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AROUND WELL INTO THE DAY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EVEN
FURTHER IN TIME. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING...AND IF SIGNIFICANT SLEET/SNOW IN ON THE GROUND AS
EXPECTED...MAKING IT INTO THE UPPER 20S MIGHT BE OPTIMISTIC. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION WILL LINGER.

FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY
MAY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING...BUT ONCE AGAIN...IF SIGNIFICANT
SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LINGER CLIMBING OUT OF THE MID 30S MIGHT
BE A STRUGGLE. MORNING LOWS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID TEENS. HOPEFULLY WE WILL ALL SEE ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...BUT MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER...BUT REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN BY TUESDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

30

AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD FEATURE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE THE FIRST 6 HOURS AS A
WARM FRONT HAS BEEN LIFTING NORTH. TUP HAS SCATTERED OUT TO 2700
FT BUT HAS BEEN ERRATIC OVER THE LAST HOUR. MEM HAS ALSO SHOWN
SOME TENDENCY TO LIFT...BUT LIFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL NOTED SOUTH.
BELIEVE THAT THIS BRIEF REPRIEVE SHOULD LAST FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 6
HOURS BEFORE CEILINGS CRASH ONCE MORE. THUNDER HAS BEEN INSERTED
AT JBR AND TUP OVERNIGHT AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTED IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS SHOULD BE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AT JBR AND BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z AT TUP.

DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...A FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT ALONG WITH A CHANGE IN PRECIP TYPE AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
TUP. BELIEVE THE CHANGE WILL OCCUR AROUND 16Z AT JBR WITH A LATER
CHANGE AT MEM AND MKL...TOWARD 23Z. FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND
SNOW ARE ALL POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
IFR/LIFR CIGS. WINDS WILL ALSO CHANGE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
SUSTAINED NEAR 12 KT GUSTING TO 18 KTS.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-
     POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-COAHOMA-DESOTO-LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-
     TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MONROE-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CROCKETT-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-
     WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 040359 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
959 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVER NORTH MS AND EAST AR HAD EXPANDED EAST OF
THE MS RIVER AT MIDEVENING. DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED
INTO WEST TN WHERE VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH LATE EVENING.

QUICK LOOK AT THE NEWLY ARRIVED 00Z GFS SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE FROM
THE 18Z RUN. THE MIDSOUTH IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE TWEAKED THE GRIDS SLIGHTLY TO
INCLUDE/EXTEND FREEZING RAIN AND ICE ACCUMULATION OVER NORTH MS
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND EARLY MORNING THURSDAY...BASED ON 18Z GFS
SOUNDINGS AND IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS BELOW...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TIMING CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON WITH RESPECT TO
THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM. IN A NUTSHELL THINGS LOOK TO HAVE
SLOWED DOWN A BIT MEANING RAIN WILL LAST LONGER...BEFORE THE
CANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. ADDITIONALLY SLEET
AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE INCREASED...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE.

AS THE RESULT OF FOG EARLY IN THE DAY AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES DID NOT QUITE MAKE THEIR MARK TODAY.
MIDDLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO THE LOW 60S IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED TO
RESPOND TO A A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS...BUT WE ARE FINALLY
BEGINNING TO SEE SPEEDS IN THE 10KT RANGE. DEEP MOISTURE FROM
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI HAS MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH...SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT ENHANCING LIFT. AS A RESULT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT DO NOT LOOK AS LIKELY AS THEY
DID 24 HOURS OR SO AGO.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WARMEST WE SEE FOR QUITE
SOMETIME...POSSIBLY FOR A WEEK OR LONGER. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...MAYBE COOLING
A BIT TOWARD MORNING...BUT THE REAL COOLDOWN WILL TAKE PLACE
TOMORROW. FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD ARRIVE IN NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS MID MORNING...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AROUND
NOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH EXCEPT EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI MAY NOT REACH FREEZING UNTIL JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND THAT SLEET AND SNOW CAN FALL WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AS WARM AS 37 DEGREES IN SOME
SITUATIONS...SO DON`T RELY ON THE FREEZING LINE TO DETERMINE WHEN
SHOW/SLEET MAY BEGIN. FREEZING RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE A LESSER
THREAT...MAYBE AS HIGH AS ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH IN EAST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
THREAT WILL COME FROM ACCUMULATING SLEET. SLEET CAN ACCUMULATE AT
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING...EVEN WARMER THAN SNOW. UP TO 6
INCHES OF SLEET MAY ACCUMULATE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. WITH MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE
AND EAST ARKANSAS SEEING 2-4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO COOL OVERNIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AROUND WELL INTO THE DAY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EVEN
FURTHER IN TIME. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING...AND IF SIGNIFICANT SLEET/SNOW IN ON THE GROUND AS
EXPECTED...MAKING IT INTO THE UPPER 20S MIGHT BE OPTIMISTIC. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION WILL LINGER.

FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY
MAY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING...BUT ONCE AGAIN...IF SIGNIFICANT
SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LINGER CLIMBING OUT OF THE MID 30S MIGHT
BE A STRUGGLE. MORNING LOWS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID TEENS. HOPEFULLY WE WILL ALL SEE ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...BUT MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER...BUT REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN BY TUESDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

30

AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD FEATURE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE THE FIRST 6 HOURS AS A
WARM FRONT HAS BEEN LIFTING NORTH. TUP HAS SCATTERED OUT TO 2700
FT BUT HAS BEEN ERRATIC OVER THE LAST HOUR. MEM HAS ALSO SHOWN
SOME TENDENCY TO LIFT...BUT LIFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL NOTED SOUTH.
BELIEVE THAT THIS BRIEF REPRIEVE SHOULD LAST FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 6
HOURS BEFORE CEILINGS CRASH ONCE MORE. THUNDER HAS BEEN INSERTED
AT JBR AND TUP OVERNIGHT AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTED IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS SHOULD BE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AT JBR AND BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z AT TUP.

DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...A FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT ALONG WITH A CHANGE IN PRECIP TYPE AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
TUP. BELIEVE THE CHANGE WILL OCCUR AROUND 16Z AT JBR WITH A LATER
CHANGE AT MEM AND MKL...TOWARD 23Z. FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND
SNOW ARE ALL POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
IFR/LIFR CIGS. WINDS WILL ALSO CHANGE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
SUSTAINED NEAR 12 KT GUSTING TO 18 KTS.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-
     POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-COAHOMA-DESOTO-LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-
     TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MONROE-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CROCKETT-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-
     WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 040314 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1014 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND JET DYNAMICS WILL KEEP PERIODS OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED.
SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER JET IS PULLING MILD AND MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
OVERNIGHT...PER GOING FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  65  36  37 /  60  70  90  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  48  63  33  34 /  60  70  90  80
OAK RIDGE, TN                       49  62  30  33 /  70  80  90  80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              46  63  32  34 /  70  80  90  80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-
     HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 040314 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1014 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND JET DYNAMICS WILL KEEP PERIODS OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED.
SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER JET IS PULLING MILD AND MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
OVERNIGHT...PER GOING FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  65  36  37 /  60  70  90  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  48  63  33  34 /  60  70  90  80
OAK RIDGE, TN                       49  62  30  33 /  70  80  90  80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              46  63  32  34 /  70  80  90  80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-
     HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 040314 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1014 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND JET DYNAMICS WILL KEEP PERIODS OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED.
SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER JET IS PULLING MILD AND MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
OVERNIGHT...PER GOING FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  65  36  37 /  60  70  90  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  48  63  33  34 /  60  70  90  80
OAK RIDGE, TN                       49  62  30  33 /  70  80  90  80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              46  63  32  34 /  70  80  90  80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-
     HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 040314 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1014 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND JET DYNAMICS WILL KEEP PERIODS OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED.
SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER JET IS PULLING MILD AND MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
OVERNIGHT...PER GOING FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  65  36  37 /  60  70  90  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  48  63  33  34 /  60  70  90  80
OAK RIDGE, TN                       49  62  30  33 /  70  80  90  80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              46  63  32  34 /  70  80  90  80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-
     HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOHX 040033
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
632 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
...POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...

DOPPLER SHOWING 35 MILE WIDE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS FROM
PERRY COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NASHVILLE AREA INTO
KENTUCKY NEAR GLASGOW. THIS AREA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT
3 HOURS...LEAVING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THROUGH THE 06Z-08Z TIME FRAME. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
INTO A LOW IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT AND BRING A WIND SHIFT AT CLARKSVILLE AROUND 08Z...12Z AT
NASHVILLE AND 18Z AT CLARKSVILLE. AS FRONT GETS CLOSER LOOK FOR
SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE.

LOOKING AT THE 18Z PROFILES I THINK CLARKSVILLE COULD BE GETTING
SOME SLEET MIXED WITH THE RAIN AS EARLY AS 21Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
NASHVILLE GETTING A SLEET...RAIN MIX BY 00Z BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
SNOW BY MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING PAST 12Z THURSDAY. AT CROSSVILLE
LOOK FOR RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET BEGINNING BEFORE MIDNIGHT BUT
CONTINUING PAST 12Z ON THURSDAY...THEN CHANGING TO SNOW. &&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 040033
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
632 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
...POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...

DOPPLER SHOWING 35 MILE WIDE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS FROM
PERRY COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NASHVILLE AREA INTO
KENTUCKY NEAR GLASGOW. THIS AREA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT
3 HOURS...LEAVING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THROUGH THE 06Z-08Z TIME FRAME. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
INTO A LOW IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT AND BRING A WIND SHIFT AT CLARKSVILLE AROUND 08Z...12Z AT
NASHVILLE AND 18Z AT CLARKSVILLE. AS FRONT GETS CLOSER LOOK FOR
SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE.

LOOKING AT THE 18Z PROFILES I THINK CLARKSVILLE COULD BE GETTING
SOME SLEET MIXED WITH THE RAIN AS EARLY AS 21Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
NASHVILLE GETTING A SLEET...RAIN MIX BY 00Z BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
SNOW BY MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING PAST 12Z THURSDAY. AT CROSSVILLE
LOOK FOR RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET BEGINNING BEFORE MIDNIGHT BUT
CONTINUING PAST 12Z ON THURSDAY...THEN CHANGING TO SNOW. &&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 040033
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
632 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
...POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...

DOPPLER SHOWING 35 MILE WIDE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS FROM
PERRY COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NASHVILLE AREA INTO
KENTUCKY NEAR GLASGOW. THIS AREA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT
3 HOURS...LEAVING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THROUGH THE 06Z-08Z TIME FRAME. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
INTO A LOW IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT AND BRING A WIND SHIFT AT CLARKSVILLE AROUND 08Z...12Z AT
NASHVILLE AND 18Z AT CLARKSVILLE. AS FRONT GETS CLOSER LOOK FOR
SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE.

LOOKING AT THE 18Z PROFILES I THINK CLARKSVILLE COULD BE GETTING
SOME SLEET MIXED WITH THE RAIN AS EARLY AS 21Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
NASHVILLE GETTING A SLEET...RAIN MIX BY 00Z BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
SNOW BY MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING PAST 12Z THURSDAY. AT CROSSVILLE
LOOK FOR RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET BEGINNING BEFORE MIDNIGHT BUT
CONTINUING PAST 12Z ON THURSDAY...THEN CHANGING TO SNOW. &&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KMRX 040018 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
718 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FORECAST LOWS AND INCLUDED PATCHY FOG AREA-
WIDE AND PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. ALSO...MADE
SOME CHANGES TO THURSDAYS TEMPERATURE CURVE AND PRECIPITATION TYPE.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES THURSDAY TO CONTINUE TO DROP AS ARCTIC AIR
SPILLS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  65  36  37 /  60  70  90  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  54  63  33  34 /  60  70  90  80
OAK RIDGE, TN                       53  62  30  33 /  70  80  90  80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              49  63  32  34 /  70  80  90  80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-
     HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 032359
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
659 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...DIFFICULT FORECAST AS USUAL WITH TERMINALS LOCATED IN A
VALLEY. CEILINGS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT CAN HAVE SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET
OF VARIANCE WITH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS PERIODICALLY HAVING GREATER
INFLUENCE. DEEP MOISTURE RIDING OVER SOUTHEAST U.S. WARM FRONT
RESULTS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH.
PLACED SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE TERMINAL FORECAST LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PRESSES FARTHER SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-
     HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 032359
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
659 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...DIFFICULT FORECAST AS USUAL WITH TERMINALS LOCATED IN A
VALLEY. CEILINGS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT CAN HAVE SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET
OF VARIANCE WITH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS PERIODICALLY HAVING GREATER
INFLUENCE. DEEP MOISTURE RIDING OVER SOUTHEAST U.S. WARM FRONT
RESULTS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH.
PLACED SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE TERMINAL FORECAST LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PRESSES FARTHER SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-
     HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 032359
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
659 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...DIFFICULT FORECAST AS USUAL WITH TERMINALS LOCATED IN A
VALLEY. CEILINGS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT CAN HAVE SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET
OF VARIANCE WITH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS PERIODICALLY HAVING GREATER
INFLUENCE. DEEP MOISTURE RIDING OVER SOUTHEAST U.S. WARM FRONT
RESULTS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH.
PLACED SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE TERMINAL FORECAST LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PRESSES FARTHER SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-
     HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 032359
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
659 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...DIFFICULT FORECAST AS USUAL WITH TERMINALS LOCATED IN A
VALLEY. CEILINGS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT CAN HAVE SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET
OF VARIANCE WITH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS PERIODICALLY HAVING GREATER
INFLUENCE. DEEP MOISTURE RIDING OVER SOUTHEAST U.S. WARM FRONT
RESULTS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH.
PLACED SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE TERMINAL FORECAST LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PRESSES FARTHER SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-
     HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMEG 032343
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
543 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS BELOW...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TIMING CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON WITH RESPECT TO
THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM. IN A NUTSHELL THINGS LOOK TO HAVE
SLOWED DOWN A BIT MEANING RAIN WILL LAST LONGER...BEFORE THE
CANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. ADDITIONALLY SLEET
AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE INCREASED...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE.

AS THE RESULT OF FOG EARLY IN THE DAY AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES DID NOT QUITE MAKE THEIR MARK TODAY.
MIDDLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO THE LOW 60S IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED TO
RESPOND TO A A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS...BUT WE ARE FINALLY
BEGINNING TO SEE SPEEDS IN THE 10KT RANGE. DEEP MOISTURE FROM
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI HAS MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH...SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT ENHANCING LIFT. AS A RESULT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT DO NOT LOOK AS LIKELY AS THEY
DID 24 HOURS OR SO AGO.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WARMEST WE SEE FOR QUITE
SOMETIME...POSSIBLY FOR A WEEK OR LONGER. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...MAYBE COOLING
A BIT TOWARD MORNING...BUT THE REAL COOLDOWN WILL TAKE PLACE
TOMORROW. FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD ARRIVE IN NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS MID MORNING...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AROUND
NOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH EXCEPT EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI MAY NOT REACH FREEZING UNTIL JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND THAT SLEET AND SNOW CAN FALL WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AS WARM AS 37 DEGREES IN SOME
SITUATIONS...SO DON`T RELY ON THE FREEZING LINE TO DETERMINE WHEN
SHOW/SLEET MAY BEGIN. FREEZING RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE A LESSER
THREAT...MAYBE AS HIGH AS ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH IN EAST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
THREAT WILL COME FROM ACCUMULATING SLEET. SLEET CAN ACCUMULATE AT
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING...EVEN WARMER THAN SNOW. UP TO 6
INCHES OF SLEET MAY ACCUMULATE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. WITH MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE
AND EAST ARKANSAS SEENING 2-4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO COOL OVERNIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AROUND WELL INTO THE DAY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EVEN
FURTHER IN TIME. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING...AND IF SIGNIFICANT SLEET/SNOW IN ON THE GROUND AS
EXPECTED...MAKING IT INTO THE UPPER 20S MIGHT BE OPTIMISTIC. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION WILL LINGER.

FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY
MAY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING...BUT ONCE AGAIN...IF SIGNIFICANT
SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LINGER CLIMBING OUT OF THE MID 30S MIGHT
BE A STRUGGLE. MORNING LOWS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID TEENS. HOPEFULLY WE WILL ALL SEE ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...BUT MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER...BUT REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN BY TUESDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

30

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD FEATURE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE THE FIRST 6 HOURS AS A
WARM FRONT HAS BEEN LIFTING NORTH. TUP HAS SCATTERED OUT TO 2700
FT BUT HAS BEEN ERRATIC OVER THE LAST HOUR. MEM HAS ALSO SHOWN
SOME TENDENCY TO LIFT...BUT LIFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL NOTED SOUTH.
BELIEVE THAT THIS BRIEF REPRIEVE SHOULD LAST FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 6
HOURS BEFORE CEILINGS CRASH ONCE MORE. THUNDER HAS BEEN INSERTED
AT JBR AND TUP OVERNIGHT AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTED IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS SHOULD BE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AT JBR AND BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z AT TUP.

DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...A FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT ALONG WITH A CHANGE IN PRECIP TYPE AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
TUP. BELIEVE THE CHANGE WILL OCCUR AROUND 16Z AT JBR WITH A LATER
CHANGE AT MEM AND MKL...TOWARD 23Z. FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND
SNOW ARE ALL POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
IFR/LIFR CIGS. WINDS WILL ALSO CHANGE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
SUSTAINED NEAR 12 KT GUSTING TO 18 KTS.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-
     POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-
     TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MONROE-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CROCKETT-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-
     WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 032343
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
543 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST ISC INFO AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT THUNDER
WILL BE A TOUGH SELL OVERNIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD AND TAKE THE THUNDER
OUT OF THE GRIDS. ANOTHER AREA THAT WILL NEED UPDATING IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT ALONG THE PLATEAU. THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT DOWN HERE UNTIL SOMETIME AFTER 10Z.
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TOWARD 12Z LOOK ESPECIALLY LOW ACROSS THE
PLATEAU. FURTHERMORE...NUMERIC DATA BRINGS IN LOW VSBY GROUPS FOR
CSV. ADDITIONAL CHANGES WILL BE CUTTING THE DEF POPS DOWN TO
LIKELY AFT MIDNIGHT SE HALF. ALSO...INTENSITY LEVELS SE WILL BE
LIGHT AS OPPOSED TO MDT. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS EXPECTED...WE`VE HAD QUITE THE WARMUP TODAY.  AFTERNOON HIGHS
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE MID-STATE AND
WHILE THE SHOWER COVERAGE HASN`T BEEN GREAT...MANY ARE SEEING SOME
ON-AND-OFF LIGHT RAIN.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN VERY
UNIMPRESSIVE...WHICH IS MITIGATING ANY THUNDER ATTM...BUT IT`S STILL
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOMEONE TO HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS
EVENING.

OUR APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM GETS RAMPED UP TO OUR NORTH
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.  WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES ARE PLASTERED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS.  HERE AT HOME...WE ARE GOING TO RUN WITH A WINTER
STORM WARNING STARTING AT 3 PM FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE NASHVILLE
METRO AREA.  THIS START TIME IS A LITTLE LATER THAN I WOULD HAVE
SAID IT WAS GOING TO BE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE
TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT.  THIS SHALLOW COLD LAYER OF COLD AIR...AND A WARM ELEVATED
NOSE...IS GOING TO PRESENT CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SLEET.  THE GOOD NEWS
IS THAT WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WE`VE EXPERIENCED TODAY...AND
THAT WILL CARRY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEGLIGIBLE IN THE OVERALL SCHEME OF THINGS.
AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER TO
SLEET.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD BE IN LINE FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF SLEET
AS THE COLD AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS BECOMES DEEPER...BUT THE WARM
NOSE HANGS ON TIGHT.  BY MIDNIGHT...A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NORTHWEST AS THE WARM NOSE FINALLY ERODES.  THROUGHOUT THE
SLEET/SNOW TIME FRAME...THE CONCERN IS STILL THE HIGH AMOUNT OF QPF
THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING.  THIS HAS BEEN EXTREMELY CONSISTENT FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.  FOR THIS REASON...WE ARE GOING TO HOLD ONTO
3-5 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW NORTHWEST OF THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS KIND OF ACCUMULATION IS GOING TO CAUSE MAJOR
TRAVEL ISSUES.

SIMILARLY TO THE NORTHWEST...THE REST OF THE MID-STATE WILL SEE A
TRANSITION FROM THE RAIN TO THIS WINTRY MIX THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY SNOW.  EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR LESSER AMOUNTS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ABOVE DESCRIBED AREA...WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS
NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE LINE.  1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATION IN THIS AREA HAS WARRANTED ONLY A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ATTM.

THE KEY TO TOMORROW`S PRECIPITATION IS GOING TO BE THE DEPTH OF THE
COLD LAYER BELOW THE ELEVATED WARM NOSE.  CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING 4-5KFT OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WHICH IS WHY WE`RE
CONCERNED ABOUT THE SLEET OVER THE FREEZING RAIN.  IF THE COLD LAYER
REMAINS MORE SHALLOW FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...THIS WOULD
LESSEN THE SLEET CONCERNS AND RAISE THE FREEZING RAIN TOTALS.  THIS
DEEP COLD LAYER THOUGH...HAS BEEN PREVALENT IN SEVERAL DAYS WORTH OF
FORECAST MODELS.

AS I STATED EARLIER...WE HAVE SLOWED THINGS DOWN QUITE A BIT WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  THE COLD AIR JUST GETS IN HERE LATER THAN WE
HAVE SEEN.  BECAUSE OF THIS...WHAT PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL
AHEAD OF THE COLDER AIR IS GOING TO BE LIQUID.  THIS STILL SPELLS
1-2 INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO THE WINTRY STUFF.  THIS
SHOULD BE SUSTAINABLE ACROSS MOST OF THE MID-STATE...BUT WITH THE
HIGHER TOTALS FALLING OVER AREAS THAT MAY STILL HAVE LEFTOVER
SNOW/ICE FROM LAST WEEK...THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO COULD CAUSE
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH
BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY WIDESPREAD CONCERNS.

THE OVERALL SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM IS ALSO GOING TO CAUSE THE SNOW TO
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE.  FOR THIS REASON...WE`RE GOING TO RUN
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WARNING UNTIL NOON THURSDAY AS
ACCUMULATION COULD CONTINUE ON THE PLATEAU.  WE SHOULD START RUNNING
OUT OF PRECIP BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

UNFORTUNATELY...THE WINTER FUN ISN`T OVER WHEN THE SNOW ENDS.
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE VERY COLD BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  EVEN
THOUGH WE WILL SEE SUNSHINE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 30 THURSDAY...FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MIGHT JUST BARELY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY.  BECAUSE
OF THIS...THE MELTING OF THE WINTRY STUFF ON THE GROUND MIGHT BE
VERY SLOW.  THE TRAVEL IMPACTS COULD BE LENGTHY...ESPECIALLY FOR
LESS TRAVELED ROADS.   BY SATURDAY THOUGH...WE SHOULD CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 40S...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY FACILITATE A GOOD MELT.

ONCE WE GET THROUGH THIS WINTRY WEATHER TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR SEVERAL DAYS...SO AT LEAST THAT`S SOMETHING TO
LOOK FORWARD TO.

UNGER

AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP
AS WELL SINCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED A BIT. LOOK FOR
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD FLIP TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STARTING LATE TONIGHT. KCSV
CIGS HAVE ALREADY GONE TO LIFR...AND KBNA AND KCKV LOOK TO FOLLOW
LATER TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE SCATTERED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT BECOME LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIFR
CIGS REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE BUT IFR MAY POP IN KBNA
TOMORROW MID MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      51  52  23  26 /  90 100 100  60
CLARKSVILLE    39  41  18  23 /  90 100 100  40
CROSSVILLE     54  56  23  25 /  80 100 100  80
COLUMBIA       56  59  23  27 /  90 100 100  70
LAWRENCEBURG   58  60  23  27 /  80 100 100  70
WAVERLY        42  43  20  25 /  90 100 100  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KMEG 032343
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
543 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS BELOW...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TIMING CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON WITH RESPECT TO
THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM. IN A NUTSHELL THINGS LOOK TO HAVE
SLOWED DOWN A BIT MEANING RAIN WILL LAST LONGER...BEFORE THE
CANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. ADDITIONALLY SLEET
AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE INCREASED...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE.

AS THE RESULT OF FOG EARLY IN THE DAY AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES DID NOT QUITE MAKE THEIR MARK TODAY.
MIDDLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO THE LOW 60S IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED TO
RESPOND TO A A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS...BUT WE ARE FINALLY
BEGINNING TO SEE SPEEDS IN THE 10KT RANGE. DEEP MOISTURE FROM
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI HAS MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH...SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT ENHANCING LIFT. AS A RESULT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT DO NOT LOOK AS LIKELY AS THEY
DID 24 HOURS OR SO AGO.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WARMEST WE SEE FOR QUITE
SOMETIME...POSSIBLY FOR A WEEK OR LONGER. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...MAYBE COOLING
A BIT TOWARD MORNING...BUT THE REAL COOLDOWN WILL TAKE PLACE
TOMORROW. FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD ARRIVE IN NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS MID MORNING...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AROUND
NOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH EXCEPT EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI MAY NOT REACH FREEZING UNTIL JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND THAT SLEET AND SNOW CAN FALL WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AS WARM AS 37 DEGREES IN SOME
SITUATIONS...SO DON`T RELY ON THE FREEZING LINE TO DETERMINE WHEN
SHOW/SLEET MAY BEGIN. FREEZING RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE A LESSER
THREAT...MAYBE AS HIGH AS ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH IN EAST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
THREAT WILL COME FROM ACCUMULATING SLEET. SLEET CAN ACCUMULATE AT
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING...EVEN WARMER THAN SNOW. UP TO 6
INCHES OF SLEET MAY ACCUMULATE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. WITH MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE
AND EAST ARKANSAS SEENING 2-4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO COOL OVERNIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AROUND WELL INTO THE DAY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EVEN
FURTHER IN TIME. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING...AND IF SIGNIFICANT SLEET/SNOW IN ON THE GROUND AS
EXPECTED...MAKING IT INTO THE UPPER 20S MIGHT BE OPTIMISTIC. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION WILL LINGER.

FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY
MAY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING...BUT ONCE AGAIN...IF SIGNIFICANT
SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LINGER CLIMBING OUT OF THE MID 30S MIGHT
BE A STRUGGLE. MORNING LOWS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID TEENS. HOPEFULLY WE WILL ALL SEE ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...BUT MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER...BUT REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN BY TUESDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

30

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD FEATURE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE THE FIRST 6 HOURS AS A
WARM FRONT HAS BEEN LIFTING NORTH. TUP HAS SCATTERED OUT TO 2700
FT BUT HAS BEEN ERRATIC OVER THE LAST HOUR. MEM HAS ALSO SHOWN
SOME TENDENCY TO LIFT...BUT LIFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL NOTED SOUTH.
BELIEVE THAT THIS BRIEF REPRIEVE SHOULD LAST FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 6
HOURS BEFORE CEILINGS CRASH ONCE MORE. THUNDER HAS BEEN INSERTED
AT JBR AND TUP OVERNIGHT AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTED IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS SHOULD BE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AT JBR AND BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z AT TUP.

DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...A FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT ALONG WITH A CHANGE IN PRECIP TYPE AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
TUP. BELIEVE THE CHANGE WILL OCCUR AROUND 16Z AT JBR WITH A LATER
CHANGE AT MEM AND MKL...TOWARD 23Z. FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND
SNOW ARE ALL POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
IFR/LIFR CIGS. WINDS WILL ALSO CHANGE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
SUSTAINED NEAR 12 KT GUSTING TO 18 KTS.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-
     POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-
     TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MONROE-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CROCKETT-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-
     WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 032343
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
543 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST ISC INFO AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT THUNDER
WILL BE A TOUGH SELL OVERNIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD AND TAKE THE THUNDER
OUT OF THE GRIDS. ANOTHER AREA THAT WILL NEED UPDATING IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT ALONG THE PLATEAU. THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT DOWN HERE UNTIL SOMETIME AFTER 10Z.
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TOWARD 12Z LOOK ESPECIALLY LOW ACROSS THE
PLATEAU. FURTHERMORE...NUMERIC DATA BRINGS IN LOW VSBY GROUPS FOR
CSV. ADDITIONAL CHANGES WILL BE CUTTING THE DEF POPS DOWN TO
LIKELY AFT MIDNIGHT SE HALF. ALSO...INTENSITY LEVELS SE WILL BE
LIGHT AS OPPOSED TO MDT. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS EXPECTED...WE`VE HAD QUITE THE WARMUP TODAY.  AFTERNOON HIGHS
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE MID-STATE AND
WHILE THE SHOWER COVERAGE HASN`T BEEN GREAT...MANY ARE SEEING SOME
ON-AND-OFF LIGHT RAIN.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN VERY
UNIMPRESSIVE...WHICH IS MITIGATING ANY THUNDER ATTM...BUT IT`S STILL
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOMEONE TO HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS
EVENING.

OUR APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM GETS RAMPED UP TO OUR NORTH
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.  WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES ARE PLASTERED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS.  HERE AT HOME...WE ARE GOING TO RUN WITH A WINTER
STORM WARNING STARTING AT 3 PM FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE NASHVILLE
METRO AREA.  THIS START TIME IS A LITTLE LATER THAN I WOULD HAVE
SAID IT WAS GOING TO BE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE
TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT.  THIS SHALLOW COLD LAYER OF COLD AIR...AND A WARM ELEVATED
NOSE...IS GOING TO PRESENT CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SLEET.  THE GOOD NEWS
IS THAT WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WE`VE EXPERIENCED TODAY...AND
THAT WILL CARRY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEGLIGIBLE IN THE OVERALL SCHEME OF THINGS.
AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER TO
SLEET.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD BE IN LINE FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF SLEET
AS THE COLD AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS BECOMES DEEPER...BUT THE WARM
NOSE HANGS ON TIGHT.  BY MIDNIGHT...A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NORTHWEST AS THE WARM NOSE FINALLY ERODES.  THROUGHOUT THE
SLEET/SNOW TIME FRAME...THE CONCERN IS STILL THE HIGH AMOUNT OF QPF
THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING.  THIS HAS BEEN EXTREMELY CONSISTENT FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.  FOR THIS REASON...WE ARE GOING TO HOLD ONTO
3-5 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW NORTHWEST OF THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS KIND OF ACCUMULATION IS GOING TO CAUSE MAJOR
TRAVEL ISSUES.

SIMILARLY TO THE NORTHWEST...THE REST OF THE MID-STATE WILL SEE A
TRANSITION FROM THE RAIN TO THIS WINTRY MIX THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY SNOW.  EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR LESSER AMOUNTS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ABOVE DESCRIBED AREA...WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS
NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE LINE.  1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATION IN THIS AREA HAS WARRANTED ONLY A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ATTM.

THE KEY TO TOMORROW`S PRECIPITATION IS GOING TO BE THE DEPTH OF THE
COLD LAYER BELOW THE ELEVATED WARM NOSE.  CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING 4-5KFT OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WHICH IS WHY WE`RE
CONCERNED ABOUT THE SLEET OVER THE FREEZING RAIN.  IF THE COLD LAYER
REMAINS MORE SHALLOW FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...THIS WOULD
LESSEN THE SLEET CONCERNS AND RAISE THE FREEZING RAIN TOTALS.  THIS
DEEP COLD LAYER THOUGH...HAS BEEN PREVALENT IN SEVERAL DAYS WORTH OF
FORECAST MODELS.

AS I STATED EARLIER...WE HAVE SLOWED THINGS DOWN QUITE A BIT WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  THE COLD AIR JUST GETS IN HERE LATER THAN WE
HAVE SEEN.  BECAUSE OF THIS...WHAT PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL
AHEAD OF THE COLDER AIR IS GOING TO BE LIQUID.  THIS STILL SPELLS
1-2 INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO THE WINTRY STUFF.  THIS
SHOULD BE SUSTAINABLE ACROSS MOST OF THE MID-STATE...BUT WITH THE
HIGHER TOTALS FALLING OVER AREAS THAT MAY STILL HAVE LEFTOVER
SNOW/ICE FROM LAST WEEK...THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO COULD CAUSE
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH
BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY WIDESPREAD CONCERNS.

THE OVERALL SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM IS ALSO GOING TO CAUSE THE SNOW TO
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE.  FOR THIS REASON...WE`RE GOING TO RUN
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WARNING UNTIL NOON THURSDAY AS
ACCUMULATION COULD CONTINUE ON THE PLATEAU.  WE SHOULD START RUNNING
OUT OF PRECIP BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

UNFORTUNATELY...THE WINTER FUN ISN`T OVER WHEN THE SNOW ENDS.
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE VERY COLD BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  EVEN
THOUGH WE WILL SEE SUNSHINE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 30 THURSDAY...FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MIGHT JUST BARELY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY.  BECAUSE
OF THIS...THE MELTING OF THE WINTRY STUFF ON THE GROUND MIGHT BE
VERY SLOW.  THE TRAVEL IMPACTS COULD BE LENGTHY...ESPECIALLY FOR
LESS TRAVELED ROADS.   BY SATURDAY THOUGH...WE SHOULD CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 40S...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY FACILITATE A GOOD MELT.

ONCE WE GET THROUGH THIS WINTRY WEATHER TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR SEVERAL DAYS...SO AT LEAST THAT`S SOMETHING TO
LOOK FORWARD TO.

UNGER

AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP
AS WELL SINCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED A BIT. LOOK FOR
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD FLIP TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STARTING LATE TONIGHT. KCSV
CIGS HAVE ALREADY GONE TO LIFR...AND KBNA AND KCKV LOOK TO FOLLOW
LATER TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE SCATTERED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT BECOME LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIFR
CIGS REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE BUT IFR MAY POP IN KBNA
TOMORROW MID MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      51  52  23  26 /  90 100 100  60
CLARKSVILLE    39  41  18  23 /  90 100 100  40
CROSSVILLE     54  56  23  25 /  80 100 100  80
COLUMBIA       56  59  23  27 /  90 100 100  70
LAWRENCEBURG   58  60  23  27 /  80 100 100  70
WAVERLY        42  43  20  25 /  90 100 100  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KMEG 032343
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
543 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS BELOW...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TIMING CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON WITH RESPECT TO
THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM. IN A NUTSHELL THINGS LOOK TO HAVE
SLOWED DOWN A BIT MEANING RAIN WILL LAST LONGER...BEFORE THE
CANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. ADDITIONALLY SLEET
AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE INCREASED...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE.

AS THE RESULT OF FOG EARLY IN THE DAY AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES DID NOT QUITE MAKE THEIR MARK TODAY.
MIDDLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO THE LOW 60S IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED TO
RESPOND TO A A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS...BUT WE ARE FINALLY
BEGINNING TO SEE SPEEDS IN THE 10KT RANGE. DEEP MOISTURE FROM
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI HAS MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH...SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT ENHANCING LIFT. AS A RESULT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT DO NOT LOOK AS LIKELY AS THEY
DID 24 HOURS OR SO AGO.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WARMEST WE SEE FOR QUITE
SOMETIME...POSSIBLY FOR A WEEK OR LONGER. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...MAYBE COOLING
A BIT TOWARD MORNING...BUT THE REAL COOLDOWN WILL TAKE PLACE
TOMORROW. FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD ARRIVE IN NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS MID MORNING...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AROUND
NOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH EXCEPT EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI MAY NOT REACH FREEZING UNTIL JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND THAT SLEET AND SNOW CAN FALL WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AS WARM AS 37 DEGREES IN SOME
SITUATIONS...SO DON`T RELY ON THE FREEZING LINE TO DETERMINE WHEN
SHOW/SLEET MAY BEGIN. FREEZING RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE A LESSER
THREAT...MAYBE AS HIGH AS ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH IN EAST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
THREAT WILL COME FROM ACCUMULATING SLEET. SLEET CAN ACCUMULATE AT
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING...EVEN WARMER THAN SNOW. UP TO 6
INCHES OF SLEET MAY ACCUMULATE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. WITH MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE
AND EAST ARKANSAS SEENING 2-4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO COOL OVERNIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AROUND WELL INTO THE DAY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EVEN
FURTHER IN TIME. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING...AND IF SIGNIFICANT SLEET/SNOW IN ON THE GROUND AS
EXPECTED...MAKING IT INTO THE UPPER 20S MIGHT BE OPTIMISTIC. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION WILL LINGER.

FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY
MAY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING...BUT ONCE AGAIN...IF SIGNIFICANT
SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LINGER CLIMBING OUT OF THE MID 30S MIGHT
BE A STRUGGLE. MORNING LOWS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID TEENS. HOPEFULLY WE WILL ALL SEE ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...BUT MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER...BUT REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN BY TUESDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

30

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD FEATURE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE THE FIRST 6 HOURS AS A
WARM FRONT HAS BEEN LIFTING NORTH. TUP HAS SCATTERED OUT TO 2700
FT BUT HAS BEEN ERRATIC OVER THE LAST HOUR. MEM HAS ALSO SHOWN
SOME TENDENCY TO LIFT...BUT LIFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL NOTED SOUTH.
BELIEVE THAT THIS BRIEF REPRIEVE SHOULD LAST FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 6
HOURS BEFORE CEILINGS CRASH ONCE MORE. THUNDER HAS BEEN INSERTED
AT JBR AND TUP OVERNIGHT AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTED IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS SHOULD BE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AT JBR AND BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z AT TUP.

DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...A FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT ALONG WITH A CHANGE IN PRECIP TYPE AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
TUP. BELIEVE THE CHANGE WILL OCCUR AROUND 16Z AT JBR WITH A LATER
CHANGE AT MEM AND MKL...TOWARD 23Z. FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND
SNOW ARE ALL POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
IFR/LIFR CIGS. WINDS WILL ALSO CHANGE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
SUSTAINED NEAR 12 KT GUSTING TO 18 KTS.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-
     POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-
     TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MONROE-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CROCKETT-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-
     WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 032343
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
543 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST ISC INFO AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT THUNDER
WILL BE A TOUGH SELL OVERNIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD AND TAKE THE THUNDER
OUT OF THE GRIDS. ANOTHER AREA THAT WILL NEED UPDATING IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT ALONG THE PLATEAU. THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT DOWN HERE UNTIL SOMETIME AFTER 10Z.
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TOWARD 12Z LOOK ESPECIALLY LOW ACROSS THE
PLATEAU. FURTHERMORE...NUMERIC DATA BRINGS IN LOW VSBY GROUPS FOR
CSV. ADDITIONAL CHANGES WILL BE CUTTING THE DEF POPS DOWN TO
LIKELY AFT MIDNIGHT SE HALF. ALSO...INTENSITY LEVELS SE WILL BE
LIGHT AS OPPOSED TO MDT. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS EXPECTED...WE`VE HAD QUITE THE WARMUP TODAY.  AFTERNOON HIGHS
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE MID-STATE AND
WHILE THE SHOWER COVERAGE HASN`T BEEN GREAT...MANY ARE SEEING SOME
ON-AND-OFF LIGHT RAIN.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN VERY
UNIMPRESSIVE...WHICH IS MITIGATING ANY THUNDER ATTM...BUT IT`S STILL
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOMEONE TO HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS
EVENING.

OUR APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM GETS RAMPED UP TO OUR NORTH
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.  WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES ARE PLASTERED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS.  HERE AT HOME...WE ARE GOING TO RUN WITH A WINTER
STORM WARNING STARTING AT 3 PM FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE NASHVILLE
METRO AREA.  THIS START TIME IS A LITTLE LATER THAN I WOULD HAVE
SAID IT WAS GOING TO BE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE
TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT.  THIS SHALLOW COLD LAYER OF COLD AIR...AND A WARM ELEVATED
NOSE...IS GOING TO PRESENT CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SLEET.  THE GOOD NEWS
IS THAT WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WE`VE EXPERIENCED TODAY...AND
THAT WILL CARRY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEGLIGIBLE IN THE OVERALL SCHEME OF THINGS.
AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER TO
SLEET.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD BE IN LINE FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF SLEET
AS THE COLD AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS BECOMES DEEPER...BUT THE WARM
NOSE HANGS ON TIGHT.  BY MIDNIGHT...A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NORTHWEST AS THE WARM NOSE FINALLY ERODES.  THROUGHOUT THE
SLEET/SNOW TIME FRAME...THE CONCERN IS STILL THE HIGH AMOUNT OF QPF
THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING.  THIS HAS BEEN EXTREMELY CONSISTENT FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.  FOR THIS REASON...WE ARE GOING TO HOLD ONTO
3-5 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW NORTHWEST OF THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS KIND OF ACCUMULATION IS GOING TO CAUSE MAJOR
TRAVEL ISSUES.

SIMILARLY TO THE NORTHWEST...THE REST OF THE MID-STATE WILL SEE A
TRANSITION FROM THE RAIN TO THIS WINTRY MIX THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY SNOW.  EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR LESSER AMOUNTS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ABOVE DESCRIBED AREA...WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS
NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE LINE.  1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATION IN THIS AREA HAS WARRANTED ONLY A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ATTM.

THE KEY TO TOMORROW`S PRECIPITATION IS GOING TO BE THE DEPTH OF THE
COLD LAYER BELOW THE ELEVATED WARM NOSE.  CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING 4-5KFT OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WHICH IS WHY WE`RE
CONCERNED ABOUT THE SLEET OVER THE FREEZING RAIN.  IF THE COLD LAYER
REMAINS MORE SHALLOW FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...THIS WOULD
LESSEN THE SLEET CONCERNS AND RAISE THE FREEZING RAIN TOTALS.  THIS
DEEP COLD LAYER THOUGH...HAS BEEN PREVALENT IN SEVERAL DAYS WORTH OF
FORECAST MODELS.

AS I STATED EARLIER...WE HAVE SLOWED THINGS DOWN QUITE A BIT WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  THE COLD AIR JUST GETS IN HERE LATER THAN WE
HAVE SEEN.  BECAUSE OF THIS...WHAT PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL
AHEAD OF THE COLDER AIR IS GOING TO BE LIQUID.  THIS STILL SPELLS
1-2 INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO THE WINTRY STUFF.  THIS
SHOULD BE SUSTAINABLE ACROSS MOST OF THE MID-STATE...BUT WITH THE
HIGHER TOTALS FALLING OVER AREAS THAT MAY STILL HAVE LEFTOVER
SNOW/ICE FROM LAST WEEK...THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO COULD CAUSE
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH
BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY WIDESPREAD CONCERNS.

THE OVERALL SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM IS ALSO GOING TO CAUSE THE SNOW TO
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE.  FOR THIS REASON...WE`RE GOING TO RUN
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WARNING UNTIL NOON THURSDAY AS
ACCUMULATION COULD CONTINUE ON THE PLATEAU.  WE SHOULD START RUNNING
OUT OF PRECIP BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

UNFORTUNATELY...THE WINTER FUN ISN`T OVER WHEN THE SNOW ENDS.
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE VERY COLD BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  EVEN
THOUGH WE WILL SEE SUNSHINE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 30 THURSDAY...FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MIGHT JUST BARELY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY.  BECAUSE
OF THIS...THE MELTING OF THE WINTRY STUFF ON THE GROUND MIGHT BE
VERY SLOW.  THE TRAVEL IMPACTS COULD BE LENGTHY...ESPECIALLY FOR
LESS TRAVELED ROADS.   BY SATURDAY THOUGH...WE SHOULD CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 40S...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY FACILITATE A GOOD MELT.

ONCE WE GET THROUGH THIS WINTRY WEATHER TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR SEVERAL DAYS...SO AT LEAST THAT`S SOMETHING TO
LOOK FORWARD TO.

UNGER

AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP
AS WELL SINCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED A BIT. LOOK FOR
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD FLIP TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STARTING LATE TONIGHT. KCSV
CIGS HAVE ALREADY GONE TO LIFR...AND KBNA AND KCKV LOOK TO FOLLOW
LATER TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE SCATTERED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT BECOME LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIFR
CIGS REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE BUT IFR MAY POP IN KBNA
TOMORROW MID MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      51  52  23  26 /  90 100 100  60
CLARKSVILLE    39  41  18  23 /  90 100 100  40
CROSSVILLE     54  56  23  25 /  80 100 100  80
COLUMBIA       56  59  23  27 /  90 100 100  70
LAWRENCEBURG   58  60  23  27 /  80 100 100  70
WAVERLY        42  43  20  25 /  90 100 100  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KMEG 032343
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
543 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS BELOW...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TIMING CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON WITH RESPECT TO
THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM. IN A NUTSHELL THINGS LOOK TO HAVE
SLOWED DOWN A BIT MEANING RAIN WILL LAST LONGER...BEFORE THE
CANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. ADDITIONALLY SLEET
AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE INCREASED...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE.

AS THE RESULT OF FOG EARLY IN THE DAY AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES DID NOT QUITE MAKE THEIR MARK TODAY.
MIDDLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO THE LOW 60S IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED TO
RESPOND TO A A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS...BUT WE ARE FINALLY
BEGINNING TO SEE SPEEDS IN THE 10KT RANGE. DEEP MOISTURE FROM
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI HAS MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH...SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT ENHANCING LIFT. AS A RESULT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT DO NOT LOOK AS LIKELY AS THEY
DID 24 HOURS OR SO AGO.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WARMEST WE SEE FOR QUITE
SOMETIME...POSSIBLY FOR A WEEK OR LONGER. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...MAYBE COOLING
A BIT TOWARD MORNING...BUT THE REAL COOLDOWN WILL TAKE PLACE
TOMORROW. FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD ARRIVE IN NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS MID MORNING...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AROUND
NOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH EXCEPT EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI MAY NOT REACH FREEZING UNTIL JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND THAT SLEET AND SNOW CAN FALL WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AS WARM AS 37 DEGREES IN SOME
SITUATIONS...SO DON`T RELY ON THE FREEZING LINE TO DETERMINE WHEN
SHOW/SLEET MAY BEGIN. FREEZING RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE A LESSER
THREAT...MAYBE AS HIGH AS ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH IN EAST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
THREAT WILL COME FROM ACCUMULATING SLEET. SLEET CAN ACCUMULATE AT
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING...EVEN WARMER THAN SNOW. UP TO 6
INCHES OF SLEET MAY ACCUMULATE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. WITH MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE
AND EAST ARKANSAS SEENING 2-4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO COOL OVERNIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AROUND WELL INTO THE DAY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EVEN
FURTHER IN TIME. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING...AND IF SIGNIFICANT SLEET/SNOW IN ON THE GROUND AS
EXPECTED...MAKING IT INTO THE UPPER 20S MIGHT BE OPTIMISTIC. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION WILL LINGER.

FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY
MAY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING...BUT ONCE AGAIN...IF SIGNIFICANT
SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LINGER CLIMBING OUT OF THE MID 30S MIGHT
BE A STRUGGLE. MORNING LOWS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID TEENS. HOPEFULLY WE WILL ALL SEE ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...BUT MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER...BUT REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN BY TUESDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

30

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD FEATURE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE THE FIRST 6 HOURS AS A
WARM FRONT HAS BEEN LIFTING NORTH. TUP HAS SCATTERED OUT TO 2700
FT BUT HAS BEEN ERRATIC OVER THE LAST HOUR. MEM HAS ALSO SHOWN
SOME TENDENCY TO LIFT...BUT LIFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL NOTED SOUTH.
BELIEVE THAT THIS BRIEF REPRIEVE SHOULD LAST FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 6
HOURS BEFORE CEILINGS CRASH ONCE MORE. THUNDER HAS BEEN INSERTED
AT JBR AND TUP OVERNIGHT AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTED IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS SHOULD BE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AT JBR AND BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z AT TUP.

DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...A FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT ALONG WITH A CHANGE IN PRECIP TYPE AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
TUP. BELIEVE THE CHANGE WILL OCCUR AROUND 16Z AT JBR WITH A LATER
CHANGE AT MEM AND MKL...TOWARD 23Z. FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND
SNOW ARE ALL POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
IFR/LIFR CIGS. WINDS WILL ALSO CHANGE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
SUSTAINED NEAR 12 KT GUSTING TO 18 KTS.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-
     POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-
     TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MONROE-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CROCKETT-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-
     WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 032343
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
543 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST ISC INFO AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT THUNDER
WILL BE A TOUGH SELL OVERNIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD AND TAKE THE THUNDER
OUT OF THE GRIDS. ANOTHER AREA THAT WILL NEED UPDATING IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT ALONG THE PLATEAU. THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT DOWN HERE UNTIL SOMETIME AFTER 10Z.
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TOWARD 12Z LOOK ESPECIALLY LOW ACROSS THE
PLATEAU. FURTHERMORE...NUMERIC DATA BRINGS IN LOW VSBY GROUPS FOR
CSV. ADDITIONAL CHANGES WILL BE CUTTING THE DEF POPS DOWN TO
LIKELY AFT MIDNIGHT SE HALF. ALSO...INTENSITY LEVELS SE WILL BE
LIGHT AS OPPOSED TO MDT. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS EXPECTED...WE`VE HAD QUITE THE WARMUP TODAY.  AFTERNOON HIGHS
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE MID-STATE AND
WHILE THE SHOWER COVERAGE HASN`T BEEN GREAT...MANY ARE SEEING SOME
ON-AND-OFF LIGHT RAIN.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN VERY
UNIMPRESSIVE...WHICH IS MITIGATING ANY THUNDER ATTM...BUT IT`S STILL
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOMEONE TO HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS
EVENING.

OUR APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM GETS RAMPED UP TO OUR NORTH
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.  WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES ARE PLASTERED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS.  HERE AT HOME...WE ARE GOING TO RUN WITH A WINTER
STORM WARNING STARTING AT 3 PM FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE NASHVILLE
METRO AREA.  THIS START TIME IS A LITTLE LATER THAN I WOULD HAVE
SAID IT WAS GOING TO BE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE
TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT.  THIS SHALLOW COLD LAYER OF COLD AIR...AND A WARM ELEVATED
NOSE...IS GOING TO PRESENT CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SLEET.  THE GOOD NEWS
IS THAT WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WE`VE EXPERIENCED TODAY...AND
THAT WILL CARRY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEGLIGIBLE IN THE OVERALL SCHEME OF THINGS.
AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER TO
SLEET.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD BE IN LINE FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF SLEET
AS THE COLD AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS BECOMES DEEPER...BUT THE WARM
NOSE HANGS ON TIGHT.  BY MIDNIGHT...A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NORTHWEST AS THE WARM NOSE FINALLY ERODES.  THROUGHOUT THE
SLEET/SNOW TIME FRAME...THE CONCERN IS STILL THE HIGH AMOUNT OF QPF
THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING.  THIS HAS BEEN EXTREMELY CONSISTENT FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.  FOR THIS REASON...WE ARE GOING TO HOLD ONTO
3-5 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW NORTHWEST OF THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS KIND OF ACCUMULATION IS GOING TO CAUSE MAJOR
TRAVEL ISSUES.

SIMILARLY TO THE NORTHWEST...THE REST OF THE MID-STATE WILL SEE A
TRANSITION FROM THE RAIN TO THIS WINTRY MIX THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY SNOW.  EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR LESSER AMOUNTS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ABOVE DESCRIBED AREA...WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS
NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE LINE.  1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATION IN THIS AREA HAS WARRANTED ONLY A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ATTM.

THE KEY TO TOMORROW`S PRECIPITATION IS GOING TO BE THE DEPTH OF THE
COLD LAYER BELOW THE ELEVATED WARM NOSE.  CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING 4-5KFT OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WHICH IS WHY WE`RE
CONCERNED ABOUT THE SLEET OVER THE FREEZING RAIN.  IF THE COLD LAYER
REMAINS MORE SHALLOW FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...THIS WOULD
LESSEN THE SLEET CONCERNS AND RAISE THE FREEZING RAIN TOTALS.  THIS
DEEP COLD LAYER THOUGH...HAS BEEN PREVALENT IN SEVERAL DAYS WORTH OF
FORECAST MODELS.

AS I STATED EARLIER...WE HAVE SLOWED THINGS DOWN QUITE A BIT WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  THE COLD AIR JUST GETS IN HERE LATER THAN WE
HAVE SEEN.  BECAUSE OF THIS...WHAT PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL
AHEAD OF THE COLDER AIR IS GOING TO BE LIQUID.  THIS STILL SPELLS
1-2 INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO THE WINTRY STUFF.  THIS
SHOULD BE SUSTAINABLE ACROSS MOST OF THE MID-STATE...BUT WITH THE
HIGHER TOTALS FALLING OVER AREAS THAT MAY STILL HAVE LEFTOVER
SNOW/ICE FROM LAST WEEK...THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO COULD CAUSE
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH
BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY WIDESPREAD CONCERNS.

THE OVERALL SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM IS ALSO GOING TO CAUSE THE SNOW TO
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE.  FOR THIS REASON...WE`RE GOING TO RUN
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WARNING UNTIL NOON THURSDAY AS
ACCUMULATION COULD CONTINUE ON THE PLATEAU.  WE SHOULD START RUNNING
OUT OF PRECIP BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

UNFORTUNATELY...THE WINTER FUN ISN`T OVER WHEN THE SNOW ENDS.
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE VERY COLD BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  EVEN
THOUGH WE WILL SEE SUNSHINE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 30 THURSDAY...FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MIGHT JUST BARELY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY.  BECAUSE
OF THIS...THE MELTING OF THE WINTRY STUFF ON THE GROUND MIGHT BE
VERY SLOW.  THE TRAVEL IMPACTS COULD BE LENGTHY...ESPECIALLY FOR
LESS TRAVELED ROADS.   BY SATURDAY THOUGH...WE SHOULD CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 40S...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY FACILITATE A GOOD MELT.

ONCE WE GET THROUGH THIS WINTRY WEATHER TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR SEVERAL DAYS...SO AT LEAST THAT`S SOMETHING TO
LOOK FORWARD TO.

UNGER

AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP
AS WELL SINCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED A BIT. LOOK FOR
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD FLIP TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STARTING LATE TONIGHT. KCSV
CIGS HAVE ALREADY GONE TO LIFR...AND KBNA AND KCKV LOOK TO FOLLOW
LATER TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE SCATTERED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT BECOME LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIFR
CIGS REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE BUT IFR MAY POP IN KBNA
TOMORROW MID MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      51  52  23  26 /  90 100 100  60
CLARKSVILLE    39  41  18  23 /  90 100 100  40
CROSSVILLE     54  56  23  25 /  80 100 100  80
COLUMBIA       56  59  23  27 /  90 100 100  70
LAWRENCEBURG   58  60  23  27 /  80 100 100  70
WAVERLY        42  43  20  25 /  90 100 100  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 032144
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
344 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AS EXPECTED...WE`VE HAD QUITE THE WARMUP TODAY.  AFTERNOON HIGHS
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE MID-STATE AND
WHILE THE SHOWER COVERAGE HASN`T BEEN GREAT...MANY ARE SEEING SOME
ON-AND-OFF LIGHT RAIN.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN VERY
UNIMPRESSIVE...WHICH IS MITIGATING ANY THUNDER ATTM...BUT IT`S STILL
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOMEONE TO HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS
EVENING.

OUR APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM GETS RAMPED UP TO OUR NORTH
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.  WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES ARE PLASTERED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS.  HERE AT HOME...WE ARE GOING TO RUN WITH A WINTER
STORM WARNING STARTING AT 3 PM FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE NASHVILLE
METRO AREA.  THIS START TIME IS A LITTLE LATER THAN I WOULD HAVE
SAID IT WAS GOING TO BE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE
TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT.  THIS SHALLOW COLD LAYER OF COLD AIR...AND A WARM ELEVATED
NOSE...IS GOING TO PRESENT CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SLEET.  THE GOOD NEWS
IS THAT WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WE`VE EXPERIENCED TODAY...AND
THAT WILL CARRY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEGLIGIBLE IN THE OVERALL SCHEME OF THINGS.
AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER TO
SLEET.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD BE IN LINE FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF SLEET
AS THE COLD AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS BECOMES DEEPER...BUT THE WARM
NOSE HANGS ON TIGHT.  BY MIDNIGHT...A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NORTHWEST AS THE WARM NOSE FINALLY ERODES.  THROUGHOUT THE
SLEET/SNOW TIME FRAME...THE CONCERN IS STILL THE HIGH AMOUNT OF QPF
THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING.  THIS HAS BEEN EXTREMELY CONSISTENT FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.  FOR THIS REASON...WE ARE GOING TO HOLD ONTO
3-5 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW NORTHWEST OF THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS KIND OF ACCUMULATION IS GOING TO CAUSE MAJOR
TRAVEL ISSUES.

SIMILARLY TO THE NORTHWEST...THE REST OF THE MID-STATE WILL SEE A
TRANSITION FROM THE RAIN TO THIS WINTRY MIX THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY SNOW.  EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR LESSER AMOUNTS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ABOVE DESCRIBED AREA...WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS
NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE LINE.  1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATION IN THIS AREA HAS WARRANTED ONLY A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ATTM.

THE KEY TO TOMORROW`S PRECIPITATION IS GOING TO BE THE DEPTH OF THE
COLD LAYER BELOW THE ELEVATED WARM NOSE.  CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING 4-5KFT OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WHICH IS WHY WE`RE
CONCERNED ABOUT THE SLEET OVER THE FREEZING RAIN.  IF THE COLD LAYER
REMAINS MORE SHALLOW FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...THIS WOULD
LESSEN THE SLEET CONCERNS AND RAISE THE FREEZING RAIN TOTALS.  THIS
DEEP COLD LAYER THOUGH...HAS BEEN PREVALENT IN SEVERAL DAYS WORTH OF
FORECAST MODELS.

AS I STATED EARLIER...WE HAVE SLOWED THINGS DOWN QUITE A BIT WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  THE COLD AIR JUST GETS IN HERE LATER THAN WE
HAVE SEEN.  BECAUSE OF THIS...WHAT PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL
AHEAD OF THE COLDER AIR IS GOING TO BE LIQUID.  THIS STILL SPELLS
1-2 INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO THE WINTRY STUFF.  THIS
SHOULD BE SUSTAINABLE ACROSS MOST OF THE MID-STATE...BUT WITH THE
HIGHER TOTALS FALLING OVER AREAS THAT MAY STILL HAVE LEFTOVER
SNOW/ICE FROM LAST WEEK...THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO COULD CAUSE
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH
BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY WIDESPREAD CONCERNS.

THE OVERALL SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM IS ALSO GOING TO CAUSE THE SNOW TO
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE.  FOR THIS REASON...WE`RE GOING TO RUN
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WARNING UNTIL NOON THURSDAY AS
ACCUMULATION COULD CONTINUE ON THE PLATEAU.  WE SHOULD START RUNNING
OUT OF PRECIP BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

UNFORTUNATELY...THE WINTER FUN ISN`T OVER WHEN THE SNOW ENDS.
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE VERY COLD BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  EVEN
THOUGH WE WILL SEE SUNSHINE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 30 THURSDAY...FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MIGHT JUST BARELY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY.  BECAUSE
OF THIS...THE MELTING OF THE WINTRY STUFF ON THE GROUND MIGHT BE
VERY SLOW.  THE TRAVEL IMPACTS COULD BE LENGTHY...ESPECIALLY FOR
LESS TRAVELED ROADS.   BY SATURDAY THOUGH...WE SHOULD CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 40S...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY FACILITATE A GOOD MELT.

ONCE WE GET THROUGH THIS WINTRY WEATHER TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR SEVERAL DAYS...SO AT LEAST THAT`S SOMETHING TO
LOOK FORWARD TO.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP
AS WELL SINCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED A BIT. LOOK FOR
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD FLIP TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STARTING LATE TONIGHT. KCSV
CIGS HAVE ALREADY GONE TO LIFR...AND KBNA AND KCKV LOOK TO FOLLOW
LATER TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE SCATTERED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT BECOME LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIFR
CIGS REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE BUT IFR MAY POP IN KBNA
TOMORROW MID MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      51  52  23  26 /  90 100 100  60
CLARKSVILLE    39  41  18  23 /  90 100 100  40
CROSSVILLE     54  56  23  25 /  80 100 100  80
COLUMBIA       56  59  23  27 /  90 100 100  70
LAWRENCEBURG   58  60  23  27 /  80 100 100  70
WAVERLY        42  43  20  25 /  90 100 100  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&

$$

27





000
FXUS64 KOHX 032144
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
344 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AS EXPECTED...WE`VE HAD QUITE THE WARMUP TODAY.  AFTERNOON HIGHS
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE MID-STATE AND
WHILE THE SHOWER COVERAGE HASN`T BEEN GREAT...MANY ARE SEEING SOME
ON-AND-OFF LIGHT RAIN.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN VERY
UNIMPRESSIVE...WHICH IS MITIGATING ANY THUNDER ATTM...BUT IT`S STILL
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOMEONE TO HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS
EVENING.

OUR APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM GETS RAMPED UP TO OUR NORTH
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.  WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES ARE PLASTERED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS.  HERE AT HOME...WE ARE GOING TO RUN WITH A WINTER
STORM WARNING STARTING AT 3 PM FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE NASHVILLE
METRO AREA.  THIS START TIME IS A LITTLE LATER THAN I WOULD HAVE
SAID IT WAS GOING TO BE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE
TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT.  THIS SHALLOW COLD LAYER OF COLD AIR...AND A WARM ELEVATED
NOSE...IS GOING TO PRESENT CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SLEET.  THE GOOD NEWS
IS THAT WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WE`VE EXPERIENCED TODAY...AND
THAT WILL CARRY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEGLIGIBLE IN THE OVERALL SCHEME OF THINGS.
AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER TO
SLEET.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD BE IN LINE FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF SLEET
AS THE COLD AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS BECOMES DEEPER...BUT THE WARM
NOSE HANGS ON TIGHT.  BY MIDNIGHT...A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NORTHWEST AS THE WARM NOSE FINALLY ERODES.  THROUGHOUT THE
SLEET/SNOW TIME FRAME...THE CONCERN IS STILL THE HIGH AMOUNT OF QPF
THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING.  THIS HAS BEEN EXTREMELY CONSISTENT FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.  FOR THIS REASON...WE ARE GOING TO HOLD ONTO
3-5 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW NORTHWEST OF THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS KIND OF ACCUMULATION IS GOING TO CAUSE MAJOR
TRAVEL ISSUES.

SIMILARLY TO THE NORTHWEST...THE REST OF THE MID-STATE WILL SEE A
TRANSITION FROM THE RAIN TO THIS WINTRY MIX THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY SNOW.  EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR LESSER AMOUNTS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ABOVE DESCRIBED AREA...WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS
NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE LINE.  1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATION IN THIS AREA HAS WARRANTED ONLY A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ATTM.

THE KEY TO TOMORROW`S PRECIPITATION IS GOING TO BE THE DEPTH OF THE
COLD LAYER BELOW THE ELEVATED WARM NOSE.  CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING 4-5KFT OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WHICH IS WHY WE`RE
CONCERNED ABOUT THE SLEET OVER THE FREEZING RAIN.  IF THE COLD LAYER
REMAINS MORE SHALLOW FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...THIS WOULD
LESSEN THE SLEET CONCERNS AND RAISE THE FREEZING RAIN TOTALS.  THIS
DEEP COLD LAYER THOUGH...HAS BEEN PREVALENT IN SEVERAL DAYS WORTH OF
FORECAST MODELS.

AS I STATED EARLIER...WE HAVE SLOWED THINGS DOWN QUITE A BIT WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  THE COLD AIR JUST GETS IN HERE LATER THAN WE
HAVE SEEN.  BECAUSE OF THIS...WHAT PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL
AHEAD OF THE COLDER AIR IS GOING TO BE LIQUID.  THIS STILL SPELLS
1-2 INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO THE WINTRY STUFF.  THIS
SHOULD BE SUSTAINABLE ACROSS MOST OF THE MID-STATE...BUT WITH THE
HIGHER TOTALS FALLING OVER AREAS THAT MAY STILL HAVE LEFTOVER
SNOW/ICE FROM LAST WEEK...THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO COULD CAUSE
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH
BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY WIDESPREAD CONCERNS.

THE OVERALL SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM IS ALSO GOING TO CAUSE THE SNOW TO
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE.  FOR THIS REASON...WE`RE GOING TO RUN
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WARNING UNTIL NOON THURSDAY AS
ACCUMULATION COULD CONTINUE ON THE PLATEAU.  WE SHOULD START RUNNING
OUT OF PRECIP BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

UNFORTUNATELY...THE WINTER FUN ISN`T OVER WHEN THE SNOW ENDS.
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE VERY COLD BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  EVEN
THOUGH WE WILL SEE SUNSHINE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 30 THURSDAY...FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MIGHT JUST BARELY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY.  BECAUSE
OF THIS...THE MELTING OF THE WINTRY STUFF ON THE GROUND MIGHT BE
VERY SLOW.  THE TRAVEL IMPACTS COULD BE LENGTHY...ESPECIALLY FOR
LESS TRAVELED ROADS.   BY SATURDAY THOUGH...WE SHOULD CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 40S...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY FACILITATE A GOOD MELT.

ONCE WE GET THROUGH THIS WINTRY WEATHER TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR SEVERAL DAYS...SO AT LEAST THAT`S SOMETHING TO
LOOK FORWARD TO.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP
AS WELL SINCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED A BIT. LOOK FOR
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD FLIP TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STARTING LATE TONIGHT. KCSV
CIGS HAVE ALREADY GONE TO LIFR...AND KBNA AND KCKV LOOK TO FOLLOW
LATER TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE SCATTERED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT BECOME LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIFR
CIGS REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE BUT IFR MAY POP IN KBNA
TOMORROW MID MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      51  52  23  26 /  90 100 100  60
CLARKSVILLE    39  41  18  23 /  90 100 100  40
CROSSVILLE     54  56  23  25 /  80 100 100  80
COLUMBIA       56  59  23  27 /  90 100 100  70
LAWRENCEBURG   58  60  23  27 /  80 100 100  70
WAVERLY        42  43  20  25 /  90 100 100  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KOHX 032144
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
344 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AS EXPECTED...WE`VE HAD QUITE THE WARMUP TODAY.  AFTERNOON HIGHS
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE MID-STATE AND
WHILE THE SHOWER COVERAGE HASN`T BEEN GREAT...MANY ARE SEEING SOME
ON-AND-OFF LIGHT RAIN.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN VERY
UNIMPRESSIVE...WHICH IS MITIGATING ANY THUNDER ATTM...BUT IT`S STILL
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOMEONE TO HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS
EVENING.

OUR APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM GETS RAMPED UP TO OUR NORTH
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.  WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES ARE PLASTERED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS.  HERE AT HOME...WE ARE GOING TO RUN WITH A WINTER
STORM WARNING STARTING AT 3 PM FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE NASHVILLE
METRO AREA.  THIS START TIME IS A LITTLE LATER THAN I WOULD HAVE
SAID IT WAS GOING TO BE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE
TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT.  THIS SHALLOW COLD LAYER OF COLD AIR...AND A WARM ELEVATED
NOSE...IS GOING TO PRESENT CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SLEET.  THE GOOD NEWS
IS THAT WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WE`VE EXPERIENCED TODAY...AND
THAT WILL CARRY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEGLIGIBLE IN THE OVERALL SCHEME OF THINGS.
AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER TO
SLEET.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD BE IN LINE FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF SLEET
AS THE COLD AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS BECOMES DEEPER...BUT THE WARM
NOSE HANGS ON TIGHT.  BY MIDNIGHT...A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NORTHWEST AS THE WARM NOSE FINALLY ERODES.  THROUGHOUT THE
SLEET/SNOW TIME FRAME...THE CONCERN IS STILL THE HIGH AMOUNT OF QPF
THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING.  THIS HAS BEEN EXTREMELY CONSISTENT FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.  FOR THIS REASON...WE ARE GOING TO HOLD ONTO
3-5 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW NORTHWEST OF THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS KIND OF ACCUMULATION IS GOING TO CAUSE MAJOR
TRAVEL ISSUES.

SIMILARLY TO THE NORTHWEST...THE REST OF THE MID-STATE WILL SEE A
TRANSITION FROM THE RAIN TO THIS WINTRY MIX THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY SNOW.  EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR LESSER AMOUNTS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ABOVE DESCRIBED AREA...WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS
NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE LINE.  1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATION IN THIS AREA HAS WARRANTED ONLY A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ATTM.

THE KEY TO TOMORROW`S PRECIPITATION IS GOING TO BE THE DEPTH OF THE
COLD LAYER BELOW THE ELEVATED WARM NOSE.  CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING 4-5KFT OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WHICH IS WHY WE`RE
CONCERNED ABOUT THE SLEET OVER THE FREEZING RAIN.  IF THE COLD LAYER
REMAINS MORE SHALLOW FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...THIS WOULD
LESSEN THE SLEET CONCERNS AND RAISE THE FREEZING RAIN TOTALS.  THIS
DEEP COLD LAYER THOUGH...HAS BEEN PREVALENT IN SEVERAL DAYS WORTH OF
FORECAST MODELS.

AS I STATED EARLIER...WE HAVE SLOWED THINGS DOWN QUITE A BIT WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  THE COLD AIR JUST GETS IN HERE LATER THAN WE
HAVE SEEN.  BECAUSE OF THIS...WHAT PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL
AHEAD OF THE COLDER AIR IS GOING TO BE LIQUID.  THIS STILL SPELLS
1-2 INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO THE WINTRY STUFF.  THIS
SHOULD BE SUSTAINABLE ACROSS MOST OF THE MID-STATE...BUT WITH THE
HIGHER TOTALS FALLING OVER AREAS THAT MAY STILL HAVE LEFTOVER
SNOW/ICE FROM LAST WEEK...THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO COULD CAUSE
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH
BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY WIDESPREAD CONCERNS.

THE OVERALL SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM IS ALSO GOING TO CAUSE THE SNOW TO
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE.  FOR THIS REASON...WE`RE GOING TO RUN
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WARNING UNTIL NOON THURSDAY AS
ACCUMULATION COULD CONTINUE ON THE PLATEAU.  WE SHOULD START RUNNING
OUT OF PRECIP BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

UNFORTUNATELY...THE WINTER FUN ISN`T OVER WHEN THE SNOW ENDS.
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE VERY COLD BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  EVEN
THOUGH WE WILL SEE SUNSHINE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 30 THURSDAY...FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MIGHT JUST BARELY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY.  BECAUSE
OF THIS...THE MELTING OF THE WINTRY STUFF ON THE GROUND MIGHT BE
VERY SLOW.  THE TRAVEL IMPACTS COULD BE LENGTHY...ESPECIALLY FOR
LESS TRAVELED ROADS.   BY SATURDAY THOUGH...WE SHOULD CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 40S...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY FACILITATE A GOOD MELT.

ONCE WE GET THROUGH THIS WINTRY WEATHER TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR SEVERAL DAYS...SO AT LEAST THAT`S SOMETHING TO
LOOK FORWARD TO.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP
AS WELL SINCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED A BIT. LOOK FOR
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD FLIP TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STARTING LATE TONIGHT. KCSV
CIGS HAVE ALREADY GONE TO LIFR...AND KBNA AND KCKV LOOK TO FOLLOW
LATER TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE SCATTERED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT BECOME LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIFR
CIGS REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE BUT IFR MAY POP IN KBNA
TOMORROW MID MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      51  52  23  26 /  90 100 100  60
CLARKSVILLE    39  41  18  23 /  90 100 100  40
CROSSVILLE     54  56  23  25 /  80 100 100  80
COLUMBIA       56  59  23  27 /  90 100 100  70
LAWRENCEBURG   58  60  23  27 /  80 100 100  70
WAVERLY        42  43  20  25 /  90 100 100  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KOHX 032144
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
344 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AS EXPECTED...WE`VE HAD QUITE THE WARMUP TODAY.  AFTERNOON HIGHS
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE MID-STATE AND
WHILE THE SHOWER COVERAGE HASN`T BEEN GREAT...MANY ARE SEEING SOME
ON-AND-OFF LIGHT RAIN.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN VERY
UNIMPRESSIVE...WHICH IS MITIGATING ANY THUNDER ATTM...BUT IT`S STILL
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOMEONE TO HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS
EVENING.

OUR APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM GETS RAMPED UP TO OUR NORTH
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.  WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES ARE PLASTERED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS.  HERE AT HOME...WE ARE GOING TO RUN WITH A WINTER
STORM WARNING STARTING AT 3 PM FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE NASHVILLE
METRO AREA.  THIS START TIME IS A LITTLE LATER THAN I WOULD HAVE
SAID IT WAS GOING TO BE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE
TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT.  THIS SHALLOW COLD LAYER OF COLD AIR...AND A WARM ELEVATED
NOSE...IS GOING TO PRESENT CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SLEET.  THE GOOD NEWS
IS THAT WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WE`VE EXPERIENCED TODAY...AND
THAT WILL CARRY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEGLIGIBLE IN THE OVERALL SCHEME OF THINGS.
AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER TO
SLEET.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD BE IN LINE FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF SLEET
AS THE COLD AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS BECOMES DEEPER...BUT THE WARM
NOSE HANGS ON TIGHT.  BY MIDNIGHT...A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NORTHWEST AS THE WARM NOSE FINALLY ERODES.  THROUGHOUT THE
SLEET/SNOW TIME FRAME...THE CONCERN IS STILL THE HIGH AMOUNT OF QPF
THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING.  THIS HAS BEEN EXTREMELY CONSISTENT FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.  FOR THIS REASON...WE ARE GOING TO HOLD ONTO
3-5 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW NORTHWEST OF THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS KIND OF ACCUMULATION IS GOING TO CAUSE MAJOR
TRAVEL ISSUES.

SIMILARLY TO THE NORTHWEST...THE REST OF THE MID-STATE WILL SEE A
TRANSITION FROM THE RAIN TO THIS WINTRY MIX THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY SNOW.  EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR LESSER AMOUNTS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ABOVE DESCRIBED AREA...WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS
NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE LINE.  1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATION IN THIS AREA HAS WARRANTED ONLY A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ATTM.

THE KEY TO TOMORROW`S PRECIPITATION IS GOING TO BE THE DEPTH OF THE
COLD LAYER BELOW THE ELEVATED WARM NOSE.  CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING 4-5KFT OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WHICH IS WHY WE`RE
CONCERNED ABOUT THE SLEET OVER THE FREEZING RAIN.  IF THE COLD LAYER
REMAINS MORE SHALLOW FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...THIS WOULD
LESSEN THE SLEET CONCERNS AND RAISE THE FREEZING RAIN TOTALS.  THIS
DEEP COLD LAYER THOUGH...HAS BEEN PREVALENT IN SEVERAL DAYS WORTH OF
FORECAST MODELS.

AS I STATED EARLIER...WE HAVE SLOWED THINGS DOWN QUITE A BIT WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  THE COLD AIR JUST GETS IN HERE LATER THAN WE
HAVE SEEN.  BECAUSE OF THIS...WHAT PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL
AHEAD OF THE COLDER AIR IS GOING TO BE LIQUID.  THIS STILL SPELLS
1-2 INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO THE WINTRY STUFF.  THIS
SHOULD BE SUSTAINABLE ACROSS MOST OF THE MID-STATE...BUT WITH THE
HIGHER TOTALS FALLING OVER AREAS THAT MAY STILL HAVE LEFTOVER
SNOW/ICE FROM LAST WEEK...THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO COULD CAUSE
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH
BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY WIDESPREAD CONCERNS.

THE OVERALL SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM IS ALSO GOING TO CAUSE THE SNOW TO
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE.  FOR THIS REASON...WE`RE GOING TO RUN
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WARNING UNTIL NOON THURSDAY AS
ACCUMULATION COULD CONTINUE ON THE PLATEAU.  WE SHOULD START RUNNING
OUT OF PRECIP BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

UNFORTUNATELY...THE WINTER FUN ISN`T OVER WHEN THE SNOW ENDS.
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE VERY COLD BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  EVEN
THOUGH WE WILL SEE SUNSHINE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 30 THURSDAY...FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MIGHT JUST BARELY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY.  BECAUSE
OF THIS...THE MELTING OF THE WINTRY STUFF ON THE GROUND MIGHT BE
VERY SLOW.  THE TRAVEL IMPACTS COULD BE LENGTHY...ESPECIALLY FOR
LESS TRAVELED ROADS.   BY SATURDAY THOUGH...WE SHOULD CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 40S...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY FACILITATE A GOOD MELT.

ONCE WE GET THROUGH THIS WINTRY WEATHER TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR SEVERAL DAYS...SO AT LEAST THAT`S SOMETHING TO
LOOK FORWARD TO.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP
AS WELL SINCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED A BIT. LOOK FOR
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD FLIP TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STARTING LATE TONIGHT. KCSV
CIGS HAVE ALREADY GONE TO LIFR...AND KBNA AND KCKV LOOK TO FOLLOW
LATER TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE SCATTERED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT BECOME LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIFR
CIGS REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE BUT IFR MAY POP IN KBNA
TOMORROW MID MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      51  52  23  26 /  90 100 100  60
CLARKSVILLE    39  41  18  23 /  90 100 100  40
CROSSVILLE     54  56  23  25 /  80 100 100  80
COLUMBIA       56  59  23  27 /  90 100 100  70
LAWRENCEBURG   58  60  23  27 /  80 100 100  70
WAVERLY        42  43  20  25 /  90 100 100  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&

$$

27





000
FXUS64 KMEG 032143
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
343 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TIMING CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON WITH RESPECT TO
THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM. IN A NUTSHELL THINGS LOOK TO HAVE
SLOWED DOWN A BIT MEANING RAIN WILL LAST LONGER...BEFORE THE
CANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. ADDITIONALLY SLEET
AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE INCREASED...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE.

AS THE RESULT OF FOG EARLY IN THE DAY AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES DID NOT QUITE MAKE THEIR MARK TODAY.
MIDDLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO THE LOW 60S IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED TO
RESPOND TO A A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS...BUT WE ARE FINALLY
BEGINNING TO SEE SPEEDS IN THE 10KT RANGE. DEEP MOISTURE FROM
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI HAS MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH...SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT ENHANCING LIFT. AS A RESULT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT DO NOT LOOK AS LIKELY AS THEY
DID 24 HOURS OR SO AGO.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WARMEST WE SEE FOR QUITE
SOMETIME...POSSIBLY FOR A WEEK OR LONGER. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...MAYBE COOLING
A BIT TOWARD MORNING...BUT THE REAL COOLDOWN WILL TAKE PLACE
TOMORROW. FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD ARRIVE IN NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS MID MORNING...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AROUND
NOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH EXCEPT EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI MAY NOT REACH FREEZING UNTIL JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND THAT SLEET AND SNOW CAN FALL WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AS WARM AS 37 DEGREES IN SOME
SITUATIONS...SO DON`T RELY ON THE FREEZING LINE TO DETERMINE WHEN
SHOW/SLEET MAY BEGIN. FREEZING RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE A LESSER
THREAT...MAYBE AS HIGH AS ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH IN EAST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
THREAT WILL COME FROM ACCUMULATING SLEET. SLEET CAN ACCUMULATE AT
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING...EVEN WARMER THAN SNOW. UP TO 6
INCHES OF SLEET MAY ACCUMULATE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. WITH MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE
AND EAST ARKANSAS SEENING 2-4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO COOL OVERNIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AROUND WELL INTO THE DAY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EVEN
FURTHER IN TIME. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING...AND IF SIGNIFICANT SLEET/SNOW IN ON THE GROUND AS
EXPECTED...MAKING IT INTO THE UPPER 20S MIGHT BE OPTIMISTIC. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION WILL LINGER.

FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY
MAY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING...BUT ONCE AGAIN...IF SIGNIFICANT
SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LINGER CLIMBING OUT OF THE MID 30S MIGHT
BE A STRUGGLE. MORNING LOWS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID TEENS. HOPEFULLY WE WILL ALL SEE ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...BUT MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER...BUT REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN BY TUESDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

VLIFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINATE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALTHOUGH...THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT AROUND 00Z
AT KTUP AND AROUND 5-6Z AT KMEM. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO KJBR THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED TSRAS
EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR SLEET BETWEEN 16-18Z AT KJBR. S WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THEY
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT
SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 12 KTS. WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO
NORTH OR NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-
     POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-
     TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MONROE-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CROCKETT-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-
     WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-OBION-
     WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 032143
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
343 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TIMING CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON WITH RESPECT TO
THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM. IN A NUTSHELL THINGS LOOK TO HAVE
SLOWED DOWN A BIT MEANING RAIN WILL LAST LONGER...BEFORE THE
CANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. ADDITIONALLY SLEET
AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE INCREASED...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE.

AS THE RESULT OF FOG EARLY IN THE DAY AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES DID NOT QUITE MAKE THEIR MARK TODAY.
MIDDLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO THE LOW 60S IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED TO
RESPOND TO A A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS...BUT WE ARE FINALLY
BEGINNING TO SEE SPEEDS IN THE 10KT RANGE. DEEP MOISTURE FROM
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI HAS MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH...SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT ENHANCING LIFT. AS A RESULT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT DO NOT LOOK AS LIKELY AS THEY
DID 24 HOURS OR SO AGO.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WARMEST WE SEE FOR QUITE
SOMETIME...POSSIBLY FOR A WEEK OR LONGER. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...MAYBE COOLING
A BIT TOWARD MORNING...BUT THE REAL COOLDOWN WILL TAKE PLACE
TOMORROW. FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD ARRIVE IN NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS MID MORNING...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AROUND
NOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH EXCEPT EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI MAY NOT REACH FREEZING UNTIL JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND THAT SLEET AND SNOW CAN FALL WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AS WARM AS 37 DEGREES IN SOME
SITUATIONS...SO DON`T RELY ON THE FREEZING LINE TO DETERMINE WHEN
SHOW/SLEET MAY BEGIN. FREEZING RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE A LESSER
THREAT...MAYBE AS HIGH AS ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH IN EAST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
THREAT WILL COME FROM ACCUMULATING SLEET. SLEET CAN ACCUMULATE AT
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING...EVEN WARMER THAN SNOW. UP TO 6
INCHES OF SLEET MAY ACCUMULATE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. WITH MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE
AND EAST ARKANSAS SEENING 2-4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO COOL OVERNIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AROUND WELL INTO THE DAY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EVEN
FURTHER IN TIME. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING...AND IF SIGNIFICANT SLEET/SNOW IN ON THE GROUND AS
EXPECTED...MAKING IT INTO THE UPPER 20S MIGHT BE OPTIMISTIC. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION WILL LINGER.

FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY
MAY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING...BUT ONCE AGAIN...IF SIGNIFICANT
SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LINGER CLIMBING OUT OF THE MID 30S MIGHT
BE A STRUGGLE. MORNING LOWS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID TEENS. HOPEFULLY WE WILL ALL SEE ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...BUT MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER...BUT REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN BY TUESDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

VLIFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINATE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALTHOUGH...THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT AROUND 00Z
AT KTUP AND AROUND 5-6Z AT KMEM. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO KJBR THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED TSRAS
EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR SLEET BETWEEN 16-18Z AT KJBR. S WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THEY
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT
SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 12 KTS. WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO
NORTH OR NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-
     POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-
     TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MONROE-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CROCKETT-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-
     WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-OBION-
     WEAKLEY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 032143
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
343 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TIMING CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON WITH RESPECT TO
THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM. IN A NUTSHELL THINGS LOOK TO HAVE
SLOWED DOWN A BIT MEANING RAIN WILL LAST LONGER...BEFORE THE
CANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. ADDITIONALLY SLEET
AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE INCREASED...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE.

AS THE RESULT OF FOG EARLY IN THE DAY AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES DID NOT QUITE MAKE THEIR MARK TODAY.
MIDDLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO THE LOW 60S IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED TO
RESPOND TO A A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS...BUT WE ARE FINALLY
BEGINNING TO SEE SPEEDS IN THE 10KT RANGE. DEEP MOISTURE FROM
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI HAS MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH...SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT ENHANCING LIFT. AS A RESULT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT DO NOT LOOK AS LIKELY AS THEY
DID 24 HOURS OR SO AGO.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WARMEST WE SEE FOR QUITE
SOMETIME...POSSIBLY FOR A WEEK OR LONGER. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...MAYBE COOLING
A BIT TOWARD MORNING...BUT THE REAL COOLDOWN WILL TAKE PLACE
TOMORROW. FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD ARRIVE IN NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS MID MORNING...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AROUND
NOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH EXCEPT EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI MAY NOT REACH FREEZING UNTIL JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND THAT SLEET AND SNOW CAN FALL WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AS WARM AS 37 DEGREES IN SOME
SITUATIONS...SO DON`T RELY ON THE FREEZING LINE TO DETERMINE WHEN
SHOW/SLEET MAY BEGIN. FREEZING RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE A LESSER
THREAT...MAYBE AS HIGH AS ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH IN EAST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
THREAT WILL COME FROM ACCUMULATING SLEET. SLEET CAN ACCUMULATE AT
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING...EVEN WARMER THAN SNOW. UP TO 6
INCHES OF SLEET MAY ACCUMULATE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. WITH MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE
AND EAST ARKANSAS SEENING 2-4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO COOL OVERNIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AROUND WELL INTO THE DAY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EVEN
FURTHER IN TIME. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING...AND IF SIGNIFICANT SLEET/SNOW IN ON THE GROUND AS
EXPECTED...MAKING IT INTO THE UPPER 20S MIGHT BE OPTIMISTIC. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION WILL LINGER.

FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY
MAY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING...BUT ONCE AGAIN...IF SIGNIFICANT
SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LINGER CLIMBING OUT OF THE MID 30S MIGHT
BE A STRUGGLE. MORNING LOWS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID TEENS. HOPEFULLY WE WILL ALL SEE ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...BUT MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER...BUT REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN BY TUESDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

VLIFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINATE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALTHOUGH...THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT AROUND 00Z
AT KTUP AND AROUND 5-6Z AT KMEM. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO KJBR THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED TSRAS
EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR SLEET BETWEEN 16-18Z AT KJBR. S WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THEY
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT
SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 12 KTS. WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO
NORTH OR NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-
     POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-
     TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MONROE-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CROCKETT-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-
     WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-OBION-
     WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 032143
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
343 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TIMING CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON WITH RESPECT TO
THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM. IN A NUTSHELL THINGS LOOK TO HAVE
SLOWED DOWN A BIT MEANING RAIN WILL LAST LONGER...BEFORE THE
CANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. ADDITIONALLY SLEET
AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE INCREASED...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE.

AS THE RESULT OF FOG EARLY IN THE DAY AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES DID NOT QUITE MAKE THEIR MARK TODAY.
MIDDLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO THE LOW 60S IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED TO
RESPOND TO A A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS...BUT WE ARE FINALLY
BEGINNING TO SEE SPEEDS IN THE 10KT RANGE. DEEP MOISTURE FROM
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI HAS MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH...SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT ENHANCING LIFT. AS A RESULT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT DO NOT LOOK AS LIKELY AS THEY
DID 24 HOURS OR SO AGO.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WARMEST WE SEE FOR QUITE
SOMETIME...POSSIBLY FOR A WEEK OR LONGER. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...MAYBE COOLING
A BIT TOWARD MORNING...BUT THE REAL COOLDOWN WILL TAKE PLACE
TOMORROW. FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD ARRIVE IN NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS MID MORNING...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AROUND
NOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH EXCEPT EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI MAY NOT REACH FREEZING UNTIL JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND THAT SLEET AND SNOW CAN FALL WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AS WARM AS 37 DEGREES IN SOME
SITUATIONS...SO DON`T RELY ON THE FREEZING LINE TO DETERMINE WHEN
SHOW/SLEET MAY BEGIN. FREEZING RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE A LESSER
THREAT...MAYBE AS HIGH AS ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH IN EAST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
THREAT WILL COME FROM ACCUMULATING SLEET. SLEET CAN ACCUMULATE AT
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING...EVEN WARMER THAN SNOW. UP TO 6
INCHES OF SLEET MAY ACCUMULATE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. WITH MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE
AND EAST ARKANSAS SEENING 2-4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO COOL OVERNIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AROUND WELL INTO THE DAY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EVEN
FURTHER IN TIME. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING...AND IF SIGNIFICANT SLEET/SNOW IN ON THE GROUND AS
EXPECTED...MAKING IT INTO THE UPPER 20S MIGHT BE OPTIMISTIC. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION WILL LINGER.

FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY
MAY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING...BUT ONCE AGAIN...IF SIGNIFICANT
SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LINGER CLIMBING OUT OF THE MID 30S MIGHT
BE A STRUGGLE. MORNING LOWS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID TEENS. HOPEFULLY WE WILL ALL SEE ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...BUT MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER...BUT REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN BY TUESDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

VLIFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINATE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALTHOUGH...THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT AROUND 00Z
AT KTUP AND AROUND 5-6Z AT KMEM. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO KJBR THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED TSRAS
EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR SLEET BETWEEN 16-18Z AT KJBR. S WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THEY
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT
SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 12 KTS. WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO
NORTH OR NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-
     POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-
     TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MONROE-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR CROCKETT-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-
     WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-OBION-
     WEAKLEY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 032036
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
336 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...SKIES ARE CLOUDY WITH PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S NORTHEAST
HALF TO THE 50S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. RAIN WILL BE SCATTERED OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA BUT BECOME STEADY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLATEAU AND WESTERN PART OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 50S AND CHANGE
LITTLE AND POSSIBLY RISE OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL INCH
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE
PLATEAU AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. STRONG WARMING WILL OCCUR IN THESE
AREAS AS SOUTHWEST WINDS STAY STRONG. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S...SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE NW BORDER. AS THE COLDER
AIR FILTERS IN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE KY BORDER. WILL CONTINUE FLOOD
WATCH WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL BEGINNING BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MESSY WEATHER
CONTINUES OVER FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COUPLED WITH
ENCROACHMENT OF COLD AIR FROM THE NW. THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN A
CHANGE OVER OF RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN...THEN SLEET...THEN SNOW AS THE
COLD AIR PUSHES INTO AND DEEPENS OVER ANY GIVEN AREA. HARDEST HIT
AREAS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGHER QPFS...THUS NW PLATEAU AND
SW VA ESPECIALLY LEE AND WISE COUNTIES THERE. AMOUNTS OF WINTRY
PRECIP WILL BE CONTINGENT UPON ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR.. AND TODAY/S
MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THAT ARRIVAL...COULD BE A TREND. SO
CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNTS OF WINTRY PRECIP IS LOW. NEXT QUESTION IS HOW
FAR EAST THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS WILL MAKE IT BEFORE PRECIP WANES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHETHER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREAS AROUND
CHA/TYS/TRI WILL BE NOTABLY IMPACTED IS HARD TO SAY AT THIS TIME. A
WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED AND WILL INCLUDE THOSE METRO
AREAS...BUT STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

AFTER THE EVENT ENDS THURSDAY...A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
UNTIL THE END OF THE MONDAY/TUES TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  65  36  37 /  60  70  90  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  54  63  33  34 /  60  70  90  80
OAK RIDGE, TN                       53  62  30  33 /  70  80  90  80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              49  63  32  34 /  70  80  90  80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-
     HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD/GC



000
FXUS64 KMRX 032036
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
336 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...SKIES ARE CLOUDY WITH PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S NORTHEAST
HALF TO THE 50S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. RAIN WILL BE SCATTERED OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA BUT BECOME STEADY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLATEAU AND WESTERN PART OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 50S AND CHANGE
LITTLE AND POSSIBLY RISE OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL INCH
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE
PLATEAU AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. STRONG WARMING WILL OCCUR IN THESE
AREAS AS SOUTHWEST WINDS STAY STRONG. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S...SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE NW BORDER. AS THE COLDER
AIR FILTERS IN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE KY BORDER. WILL CONTINUE FLOOD
WATCH WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL BEGINNING BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MESSY WEATHER
CONTINUES OVER FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COUPLED WITH
ENCROACHMENT OF COLD AIR FROM THE NW. THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN A
CHANGE OVER OF RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN...THEN SLEET...THEN SNOW AS THE
COLD AIR PUSHES INTO AND DEEPENS OVER ANY GIVEN AREA. HARDEST HIT
AREAS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGHER QPFS...THUS NW PLATEAU AND
SW VA ESPECIALLY LEE AND WISE COUNTIES THERE. AMOUNTS OF WINTRY
PRECIP WILL BE CONTINGENT UPON ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR.. AND TODAY/S
MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THAT ARRIVAL...COULD BE A TREND. SO
CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNTS OF WINTRY PRECIP IS LOW. NEXT QUESTION IS HOW
FAR EAST THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS WILL MAKE IT BEFORE PRECIP WANES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHETHER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREAS AROUND
CHA/TYS/TRI WILL BE NOTABLY IMPACTED IS HARD TO SAY AT THIS TIME. A
WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED AND WILL INCLUDE THOSE METRO
AREAS...BUT STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

AFTER THE EVENT ENDS THURSDAY...A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
UNTIL THE END OF THE MONDAY/TUES TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  65  36  37 /  60  70  90  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  54  63  33  34 /  60  70  90  80
OAK RIDGE, TN                       53  62  30  33 /  70  80  90  80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              49  63  32  34 /  70  80  90  80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-
     HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD/GC




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities