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000
FXUS64 KMRX 241410
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1010 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Removed the mention of fog from the zones. A warm and sunny day is
in store, and the forecast looks on target.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

GC



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000
FXUS64 KOHX 241150
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
650 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Some light showers are approaching the TN River Valley Region
approaching 12Z in association with a weak upper level disturbance
aloft. HRRR model has been the most consistent in sustaining this
feature and pushing it eastward across wrn and cntrl portions of
the mid state thru the mid/late morning hrs. Some question to
whether these isolated light showers will have enough strength to
persist as they move eastward into a more atm subsidence friendly
environment. Thus, at this time, will initially introduce a slight
chance of light showers across western portions of the mid state
through the mid morning hours. Also tweaked hrly temp, dewpoint,
and wind direction/speed grids.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

An upper ridge over the region will bring prevailing VFR through
the next 24 hours. One concern this morning is the area of TSRA
over AR/MO. We think this will weaken, but it is not out of the
question for an isold TSRA to hold together into the CKV area
later today. Otherwise, layers of broken clouds near 10kft and
25kft will be overhead with south winds mostly less than 10kt.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......31
AVIATION........13



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000
FXUS64 KMEG 241147
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
647 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for aviation discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 302 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

High clouds cover much of the forecast area early this morning
with temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to around 70 degrees.
The main weather feature is a frontal boundary which currently
extends from northwest Minnesota through central Nebraska and into
northern New Mexico. This front will move very little today. Some
thunderstorms have developed ahead of this front over southwest
Oklahoma. This area of thunderstorms is moving east and could
produce additional thunderstorms later today. Some of this
activity could reach western sections of the forecast area.
Temperatures will be quite warm this afternoon with highs in the
mid to upper 80s.

By tonight...another round of thunderstorms are expected to
develop along and ahead of the frontal boundary. As this activity
moves east, some of the thunderstorms could reach western sections
of the forecast area while most areas will remain dry.
Temperatures will remain on the warm side with lows Wednesday
morning in the mid to upper 60s.

On Wednesday...the frontal boundary will move a little further
east with more thunderstorms possible over western sections of the
forecast area. There will be a marginal risk for severe weather
mainly over northeast Arkansas with large hail and damaging winds
as possible threats. Temperatures will remain quite warm with
highs in the upper 80s. It appears that Wednesday night should be
dry as thunderstorm development along the front will not be as
much as the next couple of days.

Thursday will also see a small chance of thunderstorms over
western sections of the forecast area. Temperatures will be close
to 90 degrees in the afternoon. The upcoming holiday weekend looks
to be similar to the next few days as the frontal boundary remains
stuck over the central and southern plains. This will mean there
will be at least some chance of thunderstorms from Friday through
Memorial Day. It appears that the most likely day for
thunderstorms is Friday with little rain expected for Saturday
night and Sunday night. Temperatures will remain a little above
normal levels for the holiday weekend.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will continue this period. Uncertainty with timing
and placement of convection continues. In the short term tsras may
impact KJBR and KMEM this morning. Hi-res models indicate another
another chance for tsras late afternoon/early evening. KJBR stands
the best chance a tsra on station. Expect south winds at 7-10 kts
diminishing somewhat after 25/00z.

SJM

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 241118
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
618 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today thru Thu night)

Although the weather pattern itself could be considered somewhat
"straight forward", getting into particular location details/specifics
can definitely lead to quandaries abounding thru Thu night. Model
consensus showing best chance for convection thru Thu night across
nw portions of the mid state with proximity to expected model
shortwave passages the greatest. Models could still be displaying
convective feedback in their solutions though, like the GFS seems
to this morning with a rouge area of moisture approaching the mid
state from the srn Ohio River Valley and moving sewd across at
least ern portions of the area this afternoon. Short range models
also showing some light showers developing across the central MS
River Valley in association with a weak shortwave aloft that could
approaching nw portions of the mid state by no later than the mid
morning hrs, and thus have included a slight chance of light
showers transitioning into a slight chance of light showers and
thunderstorms as the afternoon hrs progress across these
locations. Upper level ridging influences should keep the
remainder of the mid state dry today, but these upper level
ridging influences will not last for long. With an evolution from
surface ridging influences centered across the southern
Appalachians to a surface Bermuda high pressure pattern setting up
across the mid state by late this afternoon, and with progressive
swly flow developing per model solution consensus in reaction to
deep troughing developing across the western U.S. as Wednesday
progresses, and with the above mentioned possible multiple model
weak shortwave passages in swly flow aloft, the mid state weather
pattern, will more than likely be warm and muggy, but a true key
to any convective development across the mid state could be local
diurnal and orographic effects. This pattern could support
isolated to scattered light showers along with isolated to
scattered thunderstorms. But otherwise, there is no real focusing
mechanisms in place, no significant sfc fronts, significant upper
level troughing, etc. So, again, would not be surprised that it
might be drier than the models are leading us to believe for
particular locations across the mid state. Additionally, this
summer like type pattern does have the potential of producing a
few strong thunderstorms,but no organized significant threat of
any severe thunderstorms are expected. Likewise, a few of these
thunderstorms could produce some moderate local rainfall amounts
at times in this moisture rich air mass which will be settling
across the mid state, but no organized heavy rainfall/flooding
potential is expected also.

As for temps, they will generally trend 5 to 8 degrees above
seasonal normal values. Highs will generally be in the mid to even
upper 80s, low to mid 80s Cumberland Plateau Region. Lows during
this period will be generally spanning the 60s.

.LONG TERM...
(Fri thru Memorial Day)

A warm and humid pattern will be in place through the holiday
weekend. Temperatures will be 5-8 degrees above normal, with
lows mostly in the low to mid 60s and highs averaging in the mid 80s.
There will be at least small chances for showers and storms each
day, but severe wx is not expected.

On Friday, a high amplitude pattern will be in place with a ridge
along the east coast and a trough over the plains. Deep southerly
flow will bring plenty of moisture up the Ms Valley. Some of this
will push into Mid TN, but the ridge is expected to dominate,
keeping pops in the 20-40 percent range Friday and Friday night.

Through the rest of the weekend and Memorial Day, upper level
heights will be generally elevated from the Mid Atlantic Region back
across the TN Valley. No major wx systems are expected and there
will be no air mass change, so we can expect continued warm and
humid conditions with the potential for isolated, diurnally driven
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

An upper ridge over the region will bring prevailing VFR through
the next 24 hours. One concern this morning is the area of TSRA
over AR/MO. We think this will weaken, but it is not out of the
question for an isold TSRA to hold together into the CKV area
later today. Otherwise, layers of broken clouds near 10kft and
25kft will be overhead with south winds mostly less than 10kt.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......31
AVIATION........13




000
FXUS64 KMEG 240802
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
302 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

High clouds cover much of the forecast area early this morning
with temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to around 70 degrees.
The main weather feature is a frontal boundary which currently
extends from northwest Minnesota through central Nebraska and into
northern New Mexico. This front will move very little today. Some
thunderstorms have developed ahead of this front over southwest
Oklahoma. This area of thunderstorms is moving east and could
produce additional thunderstorms later today. Some of this
activity could reach western sections of the forecast area.
Temperatures will be quite warm this afternoon with highs in the
mid to upper 80s.

By tonight...another round of thunderstorms are expected to
develop along and ahead of the frontal boundary. As this activity
moves east, some of the thunderstorms could reach western sections
of the forecast area while most areas will remain dry.
Temperatures will remain on the warm side with lows Wednesday
morning in the mid to upper 60s.

On Wednesday...the frontal boundary will move a little further
east with more thunderstorms possible over western sections of the
forecast area. There will be a marginal risk for severe weather
mainly over northeast Arkansas with large hail and damaging winds
as possible threats. Temperatures will remain quite warm with
highs in the upper 80s. It appears that Wednesday night should be
dry as thunderstorm development along the front will not be as
much as the next couple of days.

Thursday will also see a small chance of thunderstorms over
western sections of the forecast area. Temperatures will be close
to 90 degrees in the afternoon. The upcoming holiday weekend looks
to be similar to the next few days as the frontal boundary remains
stuck over the central and southern plains. This will mean there
will be at least some chance of thunderstorms from Friday through
Memorial Day. It appears that the most likely day for
thunderstorms is Friday with little rain expected for Saturday
night and Sunday night. Temperatures will remain a little above
normal levels for the holiday weekend.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFs

VFR conditions will continue this period...with to much
uncertainty in weather coverage/timing to place convection on
station for MEM and MKL. Better confidence remains at JBR. Light
winds will become south at 7-10 kts...diminishing slightly late.

JAB

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 240432
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1132 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Updated for 06z aviation discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 946 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

.UPDATE...

Update to lower pops for tonight.

DISCUSSION...

A weak Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) that was moving across
southern Missouri late this evening may help to trigger isolated
showers and thunderstorms across portions of northeast Arkansas
and the Missouri Bootheel overnight. Most locations should remain
dry though as forcing for ascent remains weak and overall moisture
limited. Updated to lower pops to slight chance across these
locations for the remainder of tonight. Elsewhere...dry and
relatively cool conditions will continue.

In addition...air quality conditions have improved with sunset
therefore the Code Orange Ozone Health Advisory has been allowed
to expire. Improving air quality is expected tomorrow with Code
Yellow (Moderate) conditions for ozone and particulate matter
forecast. Refer to the latest air quality forecasts and conditions
from the Shelby County Health Department and Airnow.

Updated zones and grids have been sent this evening.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 248 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

.DISCUSSION...

An upper level ridge will build over the Southeast United States
over the next seven days while an upper trough digs into the
Central Plains. As a result, the Mid-South will be in between the
two systems. One shortwave after another will move around the base
of the trough and skirt Northeast Arkansas before moving
northeastward. Chances for precipitation over the next seven days
will come with showers and thunderstorms that develop in
association with these shortwaves thus the timing of the
shortwaves will be critical in determining when the best chances
will occur which is harder to do beyond 36-48 hours. This pattern is
very summer like thus any showers and thunderstorms that occur
will be hit and miss. Some locations may not see a drop of rain
over the next seven days.

Right now, it looks like a shortwave will skirt Northeast
Arkansas late tonight into Tuesday morning. Expect most of the
convection to occur north across Southeast Missouri. However, the
southern edge of the convection will likely affect Northeast
Arkansas thus will go with 30-40 pops across this area with 20-30
pops to the south and east.

This first shortwave will move out by mid-day while another one
approaches from the west during the afternoon hours. The second
shortwave will skirt northern areas of the Mid-South into Tuesday
evening. Will just go with 20-30 pops across the northwest half
of the CWA.

Another shortwave will then skirt along the MO/AR border on
Wednesday. Will keep 40-50 pops right along the border with 20-30
pops along the I-40 corridor.

After Wednesday, the next chance of rain may not occur until
Thursday evening with the next expected shortwave.

Beyond Friday, it becomes a very low confident forecast. Will just
keep small pops in the forecast.

Temperatures will warm each night and day through at least
Thursday. Highs will be in the upper 80s for most locations by
Thursday with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s by Wednesday night.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFs

VFR conditions will continue this period...with to much
uncertainty in weather coverage/timing to place convection on
station for MEM and MKL. Better confidence remains at JBR. Light
winds will become south at 7-10 kts...diminishing slightly late.

JAB

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 240246
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
946 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...

Update to lower pops for tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A weak Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) that was moving across
southern Missouri late this evening may help to trigger isolated
showers and thunderstorms across portions of northeast Arkansas
and the Missouri Bootheel overnight. Most locations should remain
dry though as forcing for ascent remains weak and overall moisture
limited. Updated to lower pops to slight chance across these
locations for the remainder of tonight. Elsewhere...dry and
relatively cool conditions will continue.

In addition...air quality conditions have improved with sunset
therefore the Code Orange Ozone Health Advisory has been allowed
to expire. Improving air quality is expected tomorrow with Code
Yellow (Moderate) conditions for ozone and particulate matter
forecast. Refer to the latest air quality forecasts and conditions
from the Shelby County Health Department and Airnow.

Updated zones and grids have been sent this evening.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 248 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper level ridge will build over the Southeast United States
over the next seven days while an upper trough digs into the
Central Plains. As a result, the Mid-South will be in between the
two systems. One shortwave after another will move around the base
of the trough and skirt Northeast Arkansas before moving
northeastward. Chances for precipitation over the next seven days
will come with showers and thunderstorms that develop in
association with these shortwaves thus the timing of the
shortwaves will be critical in determining when the best chances
will occur which is harder to do beyond 36-48 hours. This pattern is
very summer like thus any showers and thunderstorms that occur
will be hit and miss. Some locations may not see a drop of rain
over the next seven days.

Right now, it looks like a shortwave will skirt Northeast
Arkansas late tonight into Tuesday morning. Expect most of the
convection to occur north across Southeast Missouri. However, the
southern edge of the convection will likely affect Northeast
Arkansas thus will go with 30-40 pops across this area with 20-30
pops to the south and east.

This first shortwave will move out by mid-day while another one
approaches from the west during the afternoon hours. The second
shortwave will skirt northern areas of the Mid-South into Tuesday
evening. Will just go with 20-30 pops across the northwest half
of the CWA.

Another shortwave will then skirt along the MO/AR border on
Wednesday. Will keep 40-50 pops right along the border with 20-30
pops along the I-40 corridor.

After Wednesday, the next chance of rain may not occur until
Thursday evening with the next expected shortwave.

Beyond Friday, it becomes a very low confident forecast. Will just
keep small pops in the forecast.

Temperatures will warm each night and day through at least
Thursday. Highs will be in the upper 80s for most locations by
Thursday with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s by Wednesday night.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFs

VFR...with a few showers possible during the latter half of the
period at JBR and MEM from a weak disturbance. A better threat
for thunder will arrive at the very end/just beyond this cycle.
Light surface winds overnight will become southerly at 7-9 kts.

JAB

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 240145
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
845 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Other than a few high clouds streaming into the mid-state from the
west, another quiet night across the area. Even with the light
winds and high pressure dominating, dew point depressions should
be such that any fog development will be very spotty, light and
confined to areas closer to bodies of water.

Temperatures will climb even more on Tuesday with highs well into
the 80s with dry conditions once again.

Afternoon forecast package is in good shape. No changes necessary.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Upper low along east coast with upper trough down through the
plains states with upper ridging in between keeping mostly clear
skies and good flying weather next 24 hours across the Mid State.
Light to near calm winds tonight will become southerly on Tuesday
at 6 knots.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........01/Boyd




000
FXUS64 KOHX 232352
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
652 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Surface ridge is poised to move across Middle Tennessee this
afternoon, ushering in return flow and considerable moisture
advection during the next 24-48 hours. Temperatures will be warmer
today than yesterday and warmer tomorrow than today, with dew points
increasing to near summer-like readings by Wednesday afternoon. By
mid-week, a surface low bearing the usual appendages sets up over
the central Plains and really doesn`t seem to go much of anywhere
for several days. We`ll start introducing POP`s late Tuesday night
and Wednesday, but Thursday appears to be the peak weather day if
you have to pick one. NAM gives us CAPE`s in excess of 3,500 J/kg
and LI`s approaching -10 Thursday afternoon, which is considerably
more instability than the GFS & ECMWF, but scattered storms will
develop, regardless. Temperatures most areas will level off in the
mid 60`s/mid 80`s from tomorrow at least through day 7, which is
several degrees above normal. Nothing in the forecast models
suggests any sort of air mass change until after day 7, so it
appears that isolated/scattered POP`s are warranted most every day
give the persistent moist, unstable environment we`re soon to be
locked into. At this time, the SPC does not have any sort of severe
weather risk for Middle Tennessee through the day 4-8 outlook, so
non-severe storms are about the worst we can expect at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Upper low along east coast with upper trough down through the
plains states with upper ridging in between keeping mostly clear
skies and good flying weather next 24 hours across the Mid State.
Light to near calm winds tonight will become southerly on Tuesday
at 6 knots.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........01/Boyd




000
FXUS64 KMRX 232335
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
735 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will be the rule but MVFR to IFR conditions in Fog
at KTRI tonight and early tuesday between 09Z to 13Z.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 231826
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
226 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday)...
As East coast upper low slowly moves away...high pressure will
increasingly take hold and provide the area with a warm-up. Expect
dry conditions to also prevail tonight through midday Wednesday,
with only isolated higher terrain showers or thunderstorms expected
for Wed afternoon. Patchy fog is expected over far northeast TN and
southwest VA Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
A long wave ridge will slowly move eastward starting this period.
At the surface a ridge off the eastern coast as well as a deepening
low over northwestern Kansas will allow southerly flow to commence
over the region. Therefore higher relative humidities and warmer
temperature can be expected along with scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

Scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon hours is favored and
some of these may linger past sunset from Thursday through the
entire holiday weekend. The 12z run of the GFS is still holding onto
an easterly wave moving into SC/NC area Sunday night. Something to
continue to watch over the next several days.

In terms of temperatures daytime highs will generally be in the 80s
with lows dropping into the 60s. Overall most locations will see
temperatures above normal for minimums and maximums.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             56  87  61  89 /   0   0   0  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  54  83  60  86 /   0   0   0  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       54  84  59  86 /   0   0   0  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              50  80  53  83 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

GC/AC




000
FXUS64 KMRX 231736
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
136 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR to dominate, with the exception of mvfr vsbys at TRI btwn
1409/1413.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

GC




000
FXUS64 KMEG 231637 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1137 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1103 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

UPDATE...

High pressure remains located over the Mid-South this morning.
Sunny skies have allowed temperatures to reach 80 degrees already
this morning. Highs will reach into the mid 80s this afternoon.
Current forecast looks good. No updates are expected.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /issued 403 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

Large amplitude upper level ridge is just to the west of the area
this morning and will slowly move to the east. Meanwhile, the
surface high pressure as moved a little to the east and today we
should see winds from the south which should be able to bring an
increase to the low level moisture to the Mid-South. As the upper
ridge moves to the east it weakens a little and the Mid-South will
how southwest flow aloft beginning on Tuesday.

At the surface for most of the rest of the week the Mid-South will
be in a transition zone with the surface high to the east and a
surface low or series of surface lows over the plains as the main
upper trough is still over the Rockies. However, the area should
see some thunderstorms for the rest of the week into the weekend.
Still don`t have great confidence on timing, coverage, or
strength of any of the storms that will move through. Yet, it
looks like Tuesday, Wednesday, and maybe Thursday we have decent
instability. Yet the models differ on the location of the
instability with the GFS never seemingly wanting to push anything
east of the Mississippi River. So will mention strong to
marginally severe storms on Tuesday and Wednesday mainly west of
the Mississippi River and then on Thursday just mention strong
storms with very low confidence.

Temperatures throughout the week will be just about normal (mid
80s for highs) with the big difference than we have had the past
couple of days will be the higher nighttime temperatures and more
humid air.
TLSJr

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs

VFR and light surface winds to prevail through late evening and
early overnight periods.

Thereafter, the upper level ridge that has prevailed over the
Midsouth the last two days will lift east, facilitating gradually
weakening TSRA over the Ozark plateau to edge into the JBR
vicinity near or just prior to daybreak. Confidence is limited on
TSRA sustainability later in the morning toward MEM, but redevelopment
scattered TSRA may occur once surface heating commences toward 18Z
Tuesday.

PWB

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 231124
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
624 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 12Z Aviation Discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 403 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Large amplitude upper level ridge is just to the west of the area
this morning and will slowly move to the east. Meanwhile, the
surface high pressure as moved a little to the east and today we
should see winds from the south which should be able to bring an
increase to the low level moisture to the Mid-South. As the upper
ridge moves to the east it weakens a little and the Mid-South will
how southwest flow aloft beginning on Tuesday.

At the surface for most of the rest of the week the Mid-South will
be in a transition zone with the surface high to the east and a
surface low or series of surface lows over the plains as the main
upper trough is still over the Rockies. However, the area should
see some thunderstorms for the rest of the week into the weekend.
Still don`t have great confidence on timing, coverage, or
strength of any of the storms that will move through. Yet, it
looks like Tuesday, Wednesday, and maybe Thursday we have decent
instability. Yet the models differ on the location of the
instability with the GFS never seemingly wanting to push anything
east of the Mississippi River. So will mention strong to
marginally severe storms on Tuesday and Wednesday mainly west of
the Mississippi River and then on Thursday just mention strong
storms with very low confidence.

Temperatures throughout the week will be just about normal (mid
80s for highs) with the big difference than we have had the past
couple of days will be the higher nighttime temperatures and more
humid air.
TLSJr

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period. Winds
will be near calm at the beginning of the forecast period and then
become southerly at around 5 knots later this morning.

ARS

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 230716
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
316 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT...
High pressure at the surface will continue to build into the region
today...but the the effects from a strong upper-low over the
Carolina coast will still be felt across much of the area. Moist
boundary layer conditions from eariler rainfall...along with light
winds and a mostly to partly clear sky has created some patchy fog
/some locally dense/...across much of SW Virginia and NE Tennessee
this morning. Will need to consider a SPS for this area to account
for the locally dense nature of this fog. Elsewhere...patchy fog
is possible...but will be much more localized and confined to
sheltered valleys and lakes.

Northerly flow will continue across the region today...but ample
sunshine should create warmer temperatures today over good portion
of the region...where highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s will be
common. The one expection will be SW Virginia and parts of far NE
Tennessee...where some partial cloud cover and breezy northerly
flow will keep temperatures in check a bit more...in the upper 60s
to lower 70s. The sky should clear off everywhere by tonight...
resulting in good radiational cooling and some cooler lows in the
upper 40s to mid 50s across most of the Tennessee Valley.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Quick overview of the period. Above normal highs and lows through
the period with high pressure inplace. Slight chance to chance
pops in place for most of the periodwith diurnal thunderstorms
possible.

Tuesday, upper trough finally off to our east with ridging
building into the area. No pops in place with highs in the low to
upper 80s, which is a few degrees above normal. Dry and clear
Tuesday night with lows near normal. A little bit of moisture
begins to work its way into the area on Wednesday from out of the
southwest. However,very weak upper level flow will allow most areas
to stay dry, except for the higher terrain where a slight chance
pop is in place for diurnal convection. Temps continue to warm up
with highs around 5 degrees above normal. Lows will be mild
Wednesday night with temps 5 to 8 degrees above normal.

Bermuda high develops off to our east on Thursday as a broad
upper-trough begins to slide toward the area from the southwest.
The approach of this trough will allow for slightly higher pop
chances due to upper level divergence just off to our west, though
any significant upper level support remains further off to the
west. Highs on Thursday will be around 5 to 10 degrees above
normal, with the extreme southern valley having a shot at their
first 90 degree day of the year. Very mild Thursday night with
temps in the low to mid 60s. Bermuda high trying to hold strong on
Friday but with upper-trough nudging slightly further east. Friday
pop chances and high low temps very similar to Thursday.

Bermuda high forces upper level trough to lift to our northwest
on Saturday and Sunday. As the trough lifts north another wave
of moisture moves in from the south and will allow for slight
chance to chance pops to continue over the weekend, with continued
highs in the low to upper 80s. GFS still holding onto easterly
wave at the end of the period. Will continue to watch and see how
models handle this system. Impact on our area is still to be
determined, if any.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             83  56  87  61 /   0   0   0  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  78  54  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       79  54  84  59 /   0   0   0  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              73  51  80  54 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

AMP/SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 230549 AAC
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
149 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the period...with sct passing
clouds through this evening and fairly light northerly winds.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KOHX 230437
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1137 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Not much to update tonight with calm conditions and clear skies
overhead. May be some chances for fog again early in the morning,
but models are not buying in on fog for the area so left mention
out of the grids for now. Model soundings suggest the low levels
will be a bit too dry for fog since dewpoints did drop into the
40s earlier today. Again still something to keep an eye on should
low temps drop a bit more overnight. Otherwise rest of the
forecast is on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR flight rules and light, mainly northerly winds over the next
24 hours as high pressure takes over.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Barnwell
AVIATION........Unger




000
FXUS64 KMEG 230430
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1130 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.UPDATE...

06z Aviation Discussion Update.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 832 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

UPDATE...
Updated for overnight cloud cover and temperatures

DISCUSSION...

Minor adjustments this evening for cloud cover
wording as northwest flow will continue to bring high level cirrus
southeast out of Missouri. In addition have reduced overnight lows
across northwest Tennessee where temperatures have already fallen
into the low and mid 60s. Low level dry air in the region will
allow lows to fall into the low and mid 50s after midnight.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 258 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

A steep upper level ridge continues to build over Mississippi
River Valley as a broad area of high pressure builds at the
surface. The dry air associated with this high pressure has left
the Mid-South cloud free and kept dewpoints below 50 degrees.
Temperatures are finally back to their seasonal averages
throughout the Mid- South. Clear skies should allow temperatures
to fall into the upper 50s tonight.

The upper level ridge will be stronger and stick around longer
than previously forecasted, staying in place through Monday. The
surface high however, will begin to progress to the east of the
region tonight. Return flow from the high will result in increased
low level moisture and slightly above average temperatures for
work week.

A difficult forecast exists from mid-week through next weekend in
regards to thunderstorm coverage, intensity, and timing for our
region. Model trends have once again slowed the progression of a
slow moving surface front that will set up over the Eastern Plains
by Tuesday. Upper level SW flow will set up over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley after the upper ridge dampens and moves
east of the area by Wednesday. Several shortwaves embedded in the
upper level flow will move through the region during mid to late
week serving as triggers for convective thunderstorm activity.
Both the Euro and GFS agree that a moderately unstable to very
unstable airmass will exist over the Mid-South Wednesday,
Thursday, and Friday. CAPE values will range from 1500-3500 j/kg
with 0-6km lapse rates between 5.5 and 7.0 C/km. There will be a
chance of at least scattered thunderstorms each day, with some
possibly becoming strong. Both models agree that the best chances
of thunderstorms will exist along and west of the Mississippi
River. There is not enough confidence yet to place any mention of
strong or severe thunderstorms in the HWO, however we will
continue to assess the possible solutions with hopes that future
model runs come into better agreement.

JPM3

&&

.AVIATION...

06z TAF Set

VFR cigs/vsbys are expected along with light winds tonight
becoming southerly at 7 kts or less on Monday. Light and variable
wind conditions expected again Monday evening.

JLH

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 230132
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
832 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated for overnight cloud cover and temperatures

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Minor adjustments this evening for cloud cover
wording as northwest flow will continue to bring high level cirrus
southeast out of Missouri. In addition have reduced overnight lows
across northwest Tennessee where temperatures have already fallen
into the low and mid 60s. Low level dry air in the region will
allow lows to fall into the low and mid 50s after midnight.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 657 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

.UPDATE...

00z Aviation Discussion Update.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 258 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

A steep upper level ridge continues to build over Mississippi
River Valley as a broad area of high pressure builds at the
surface. The dry air associated with this high pressure has left
the Mid-South cloud free and kept dewpoints below 50 degrees.
Temperatures are finally back to their seasonal averages
throughout the Mid- South. Clear skies should allow temperatures
to fall into the upper 50s tonight.

The upper level ridge will be stronger and stick around longer
than previously forecasted, staying in place through Monday. The
surface high however, will begin to progress to the east of the
region tonight. Return flow from the high will result in increased
low level moisture and slightly above average temperatures for
work week.

A difficult forecast exists from mid-week through next weekend in
regards to thunderstorm coverage, intensity, and timing for our
region. Model trends have once again slowed the progression of a
slow moving surface front that will set up over the Eastern Plains
by Tuesday. Upper level SW flow will set up over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley after the upper ridge dampens and moves
east of the area by Wednesday. Several shortwaves embedded in the
upper level flow will move through the region during mid to late
week serving as triggers for convective thunderstorm activity.
Both the Euro and GFS agree that a moderately unstable to very
unstable airmass will exist over the Mid-South Wednesday,
Thursday, and Friday. CAPE values will range from 1500-3500 j/kg
with 0-6km lapse rates between 5.5 and 7.0 C/km. There will be a
chance of at least scattered thunderstorms each day, with some
possibly becoming strong. Both models agree that the best chances
of thunderstorms will exist along and west of the Mississippi
River. There is not enough confidence yet to place any mention of
strong or severe thunderstorms in the HWO, however we will
continue to assess the possible solutions with hopes that future
model runs come into better agreement.

JPM3

&&

.AVIATION...

00z TAF Set

VFR cigs/vsbys are expected along with light winds tonight
becoming southerly at 7 kts or less on Monday.

JLH

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 222357
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
657 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.UPDATE...

00z Aviation Discussion Update.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 258 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

A steep upper level ridge continues to build over Mississippi
River Valley as a broad area of high pressure builds at the
surface. The dry air associated with this high pressure has left
the Mid-South cloud free and kept dewpoints below 50 degrees.
Temperatures are finally back to their seasonal averages
throughout the Mid- South. Clear skies should allow temperatures
to fall into the upper 50s tonight.

The upper level ridge will be stronger and stick around longer
than previously forecasted, staying in place through Monday. The
surface high however, will begin to progress to the east of the
region tonight. Return flow from the high will result in increased
low level moisture and slightly above average temperatures for
work week.

A difficult forecast exists from mid-week through next weekend in
regards to thunderstorm coverage, intensity, and timing for our
region. Model trends have once again slowed the progression of a
slow moving surface front that will set up over the Eastern Plains
by Tuesday. Upper level SW flow will set up over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley after the upper ridge dampens and moves
east of the area by Wednesday. Several shortwaves embedded in the
upper level flow will move through the region during mid to late
week serving as triggers for convective thunderstorm activity.
Both the Euro and GFS agree that a moderately unstable to very
unstable airmass will exist over the Mid-South Wednesday,
Thursday, and Friday. CAPE values will range from 1500-3500 j/kg
with 0-6km lapse rates between 5.5 and 7.0 C/km. There will be a
chance of at least scattered thunderstorms each day, with some
possibly becoming strong. Both models agree that the best chances
of thunderstorms will exist along and west of the Mississippi
River. There is not enough confidence yet to place any mention of
strong or severe thunderstorms in the HWO, however we will
continue to assess the possible solutions with hopes that future
model runs come into better agreement.

JPM3

&&

.AVIATION...

00z TAF Set

VFR cigs/vsbys are expected along with light winds tonight
becoming southerly at 7 kts or less on Monday.

JLH

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 222336
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
736 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.AVIATION...The low pressure area on the east coast still pushing
moisture into NE TN...with scattered showers east of KTRI next
couple hours. Will continue MVFR fog at KTRI early monday morning
hours at KTRI. Higher pressure and VFR conditions prevail at all
TAF sites Monday.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMEG 221726 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1226 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1005 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures have already reached the lower to mid 70s throughout
the Mid-South this morning. Visible satellite imagery has the
region cloud free as dry air associated with a broad surface high
continues to filter into the Mid-South. The only tweak to the
forecast was increasing daily highs 1-2 degrees areawide.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 631 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

UPDATE...

Updated for the 12Z Aviation Discussion

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Models continue to be in general agreement with the pattern
especially over the Mid-South. Current satellite images show a few
high clouds over a portion of the Mid-South. These clouds should
quickly move to the south.

The upper level ridge continues to slowly move to the east, it has
some signs of an omega block-yet the troughs to the east and west
aren`t strong enough to keep the pattern from moving. That said
the models keep slowing down the movement to the east. The upper
ridge currently over the plain states has a northerly flow aloft.
This flow along with the surface high will provide for another
couple of days of dry weather. Temperatures will be around 80
today with some areas in in West Tennessee still not reaching 80
degrees.

On Monday, the surface high moves to the east and the upper ridge
moves closer to the Mid-South, another dry day with higher
humidity and temperatures into the 80s everywhere across the Mid-
South. Clouds will also be on the increase late in the day as the
upper ridge moves to the east. This will also usher in the chance
for some precipitation. The models have slowed down the movement
to the east, however, the western parts of the forecast area may
see some shower/thunderstorms as early as Monday night.

The upper level pattern is weak westerly or southwesterly flow for
the rest of the week and into the weekend. The surface pattern
will have a frontal system that essentially stalls over the
plains while the surface high is far enough east to put the Mid-
South in a transition zone between dry weather and the stormy
weather. It looks like the area will have a chance of rain through
the weekend as the surface pattern doesn`t change much. The
surface low over the plains at the end of the forecast period
moves north of the area. The pattern will allow for a more summer
feel with higher moisture (humidity) with high temperatures in the
80s and lows dropping to near 70 degrees. Most places will have
lows in the upper 60s. TLSJr

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs

VFR and light veering winds will prevail over the next 24 hours.

PWB

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 221714
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1214 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

After some patchy morning fog, Middle Tennessee is on its way to a
beautiful Sunday. Upper trough that brought the clouds yesterday
has slid off to the west, and now we are seeing the influences of
the eastern periphery of upper level ridging. Light north winds
and mostly clear skies will be the story of the day. The
temperature forecast appears to be on track as temperatures are
quickly making their way through the 60s. It looks like we will
top out in the mid and upper 70s. Besides some hourly temperature
tweaks, no changes were made to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR will prevail at all three terminals over the next 24 hours.
Middle Tennessee is now under the influence of surface and upper
level ridging resulting in clear skies. Dew point spreads look too
large tonight for fog despite calm winds and clear skies. Winds
will be out of the northwest today between 7-10 kts with some
gusts. Winds will die down this evening after diurnal mixing
ceases.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......01/Boyd
AVIATION........10/Reagan




000
FXUS64 KMRX 221701
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
101 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected at all three taf sites through
the evening. The low pressure on the east coast is expected to push
moisture into NE TN...with scattered light showers possible at
KTRI. Depending on how much moisture and cloud cover remains in the
early morning at KTRI could determine how much fog development
occurs. Went with MVFR right now at KTRI...but will update if
needed. Higher pressure and VFR conditions at each TAF site Monday.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

JW




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