Home > Products > State Listing > Tennessee Data
Latest:
 AFDMEG |  AFDOHX |  AFDMRX |
  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOHX 241143
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
643 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

CIRRUS GRADUALLY EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST THIS MORNING BUT
SOME LOW CLOUDS NOW SPREADING SOUTHEAST FROM WEST KY. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH IMPACT TODAY WITH FEW STRATOCU AROUND 4K FT AND
SOME CIRRUS. PATCHY FOG WILL BRING BRIEF MVFR/IFR VIS TO CKV/CSV
EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT CALM WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

..NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR MONDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH ITS
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
TRAVERSE MIDDLE TN TODAY...WITH ONLY PARTIAL CLOUD COVER RESULTING
FROM IT. WV ALSO SHOWS STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. THIS UPPER FLOW WILL STEER A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS MIDDLE TN ON SATURDAY. THIS
SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS...AND
ACTUALLY WE SHOULD WARM UP IN TEMPS FROM TODAY INTO SATURDAY AS
850MB TEMPS RISE FROM AROUND 10 TO 13 DEGREES C. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS THAT WILL RESULT SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
TODAY AND FROM THE LOW-UPPER 70S FOR SATURDAY DESPITE THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER.

THE WARM-UP AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN A BIT AND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DEVELOPS A SFC LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE MONDAY. SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY FROM SUN INTO MON AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND
AS A SFC HIGH SLIDES EAST OF MIDDLE TN. REALLY GOOD MIXING AND GUSTY
SW WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S EAST TO THE
LOW 80S ELSEWHERE. NASHVILLE`S RECORD HIGH FOR MONDAY IS 84 DEGREES
SET WAY BACK IN 1940. WE WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THAT WITH A FORECAST
OF 83 GOING RIGHT NOW. CROSSVILLE`S RECORD FOR MONDAY IS 81 SET BACK
IN 1963...WITH A FORECAST OF 78 GOING FOR NOW.

AFTER THESE WONDERFUL TEMPS...THE UPPER MIDWEST LOW WILL DROP A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYING OUT ACROSS THE MID STATE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE 00Z EURO
AND GFS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS PLACEMENT AND
POST-FRONTAL PRECIP. THUS RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE A
CHC FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LATE TUESDAY...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO THE WARMER TEMPS
STILL FOR TUESDAY WITH THE LAG IN PRECIP EXPECTED...SIMILAR TO WHAT
THE MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT FAR OUT. WILL ALSO TRIM BACK THE
INHERITED TUESDAY POPS A TAD AND INCREASE THE CHC POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE BOUNDARY HANGS AROUND...A SECONDARY UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHC FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THRU THRS
NIGHT...BUT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS DIFFER IN THE DETAILS THIS FAR
OUT. WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS A
RESULT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMEG 241135
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
635 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY...

THE TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE MID SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY BEEN
SLOWLY FALLING AS HIGH CLOUD COVER EARLY PREVENTED SUBSTANTIAL
RADIATIONAL HEAT LOSS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS STILL LACKING
HOWEVER ENOUGH SHALLOW MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO KEEP DEWPOINTS
STEADY. AS TEMPERATURES FALL...POCKETS OF PATCHY FOG ARE LIKELY AS
WINDS ARE NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

FOR FRIDAY...A GRADUAL WARMUP IS FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE...RANGING TO THE MID 70S ACROSS
EASTERN ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL THAT
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL TRY TO OVERSPREAD THE MID SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS PACIFIC MOISTURE SPILLS OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. IF THIS OCCURS...HIGH TEMPS MAY NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.

THE WEEKEND FORECAST STILL LOOKS VERY WARM. SEVERAL PLUMES OF VERY
WARM 850 MB AIR ADVECT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ORIGINATING FROM THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. USING LZK`S 850 MB CLIMATOLOGY...THE 19 C MARK
AT 850 MB REPRESENTS 2SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR MIDDLE TO LATE OCTOBER. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL RANGE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN 16 C AND 19 C DEPENDING ON LOCATION FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS SUPPORTS READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AREAS OF EAST AR/WEST TN/NORTHERN MS TO
ACHIEVE READINGS A BIT HIGHER THAN THAT ON SUNDAY...THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE PERIOD.

THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED STILL REMAINS ON THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
TRENDING SLOWER STILL WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GRADUALLY INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
FROM NW TO SE ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES. WHILE
AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE BOUNDARY STAND TO SEE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MODERATE THETA-E ADVECTION IS NOTED IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/T`STORMS IN AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT. MODELS ARE
ALSO SUGGESTING THAT THE FRONT MAY STALL AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ORIENTS ITSELF PARALLEL TO IT. THIS SUPPORTS AT LEAST A MENTION OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T`STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS FORCING
GRADUALLY WANES. PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE-TUNE THESE AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN TO THE REGION IN
THE SYSTEM`S WAKE.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MKL THROUGH 24/14Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMRX 241108
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
708 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
FOG AT TRI FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE FOG/LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY LIFT BY
1430Z...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AT ALL SITES. FOG
COULD DEVELOP TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD AT TRI...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KOHX 240837
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
337 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR MONDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH ITS
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
TRAVERSE MIDDLE TN TODAY...WITH ONLY PARTIAL CLOUD COVER RESULTING
FROM IT. WV ALSO SHOWS STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. THIS UPPER FLOW WILL STEER A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS MIDDLE TN ON SATURDAY. THIS
SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS...AND
ACTUALLY WE SHOULD WARM UP IN TEMPS FROM TODAY INTO SATURDAY AS
850MB TEMPS RISE FROM AROUND 10 TO 13 DEGREES C. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS THAT WILL RESULT SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
TODAY AND FROM THE LOW-UPPER 70S FOR SATURDAY DESPITE THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER.

THE WARM-UP AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN A BIT AND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DEVELOPS A SFC LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE MONDAY. SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY FROM SUN INTO MON AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND
AS A SFC HIGH SLIDES EAST OF MIDDLE TN. REALLY GOOD MIXING AND GUSTY
SW WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S EAST TO THE
LOW 80S ELSEWHERE. NASHVILLE`S RECORD HIGH FOR MONDAY IS 84 DEGREES
SET WAY BACK IN 1940. WE WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THAT WITH A FORECAST
OF 83 GOING RIGHT NOW. CROSSVILLE`S RECORD FOR MONDAY IS 81 SET BACK
IN 1963...WITH A FORECAST OF 78 GOING FOR NOW.

AFTER THESE WONDERFUL TEMPS...THE UPPER MIDWEST LOW WILL DROP A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYING OUT ACROSS THE MID STATE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE 00Z EURO
AND GFS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS PLACEMENT AND
POST-FRONTAL PRECIP. THUS RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE A
CHC FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LATE TUESDAY...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO THE WARMER TEMPS
STILL FOR TUESDAY WITH THE LAG IN PRECIP EXPECTED...SIMILAR TO WHAT
THE MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT FAR OUT. WILL ALSO TRIM BACK THE
INHERITED TUESDAY POPS A TAD AND INCREASE THE CHC POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE BOUNDARY HANGS AROUND...A SECONDARY UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHC FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THRU THRS
NIGHT...BUT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS DIFFER IN THE DETAILS THIS FAR
OUT. WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS A
RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      71  49  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    69  48  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     67  44  71  49 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       71  46  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   71  47  78  51 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        70  49  79  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL






000
FXUS64 KMEG 240834
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
334 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY...

THE TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE MID SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY BEEN
SLOWLY FALLING AS HIGH CLOUD COVER EARLY PREVENTED SUBSTANTIAL
RADIATIONAL HEAT LOSS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS STILL LACKING
HOWEVER ENOUGH SHALLOW MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO KEEP DEWPOINTS
STEADY. AS TEMPERATURES FALL...POCKETS OF PATCHY FOG ARE LIKELY AS
WINDS ARE NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

FOR FRIDAY...A GRADUAL WARMUP IS FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE...RANGING TO THE MID 70S ACROSS
EASTERN ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL THAT
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL TRY TO OVERSPREAD THE MID SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS PACIFIC MOISTURE SPILLS OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. IF THIS OCCURS...HIGH TEMPS MAY NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.

THE WEEKEND FORECAST STILL LOOKS VERY WARM. SEVERAL PLUMES OF VERY
WARM 850 MB AIR ADVECT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ORIGINATING FROM THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. USING LZK`S 850 MB CLIMATOLOGY...THE 19 C MARK
AT 850 MB REPRESENTS 2SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR MIDDLE TO LATE OCTOBER. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL RANGE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN 16 C AND 19 C DEPENDING ON LOCATION FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS SUPPORTS READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AREAS OF EAST AR/WEST TN/NORTHERN MS TO
ACHIEVE READINGS A BIT HIGHER THAN THAT ON SUNDAY...THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE PERIOD.

THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED STILL REMAINS ON THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
TRENDING SLOWER STILL WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GRADUALLY INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
FROM NW TO SE ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES. WHILE
AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE BOUNDARY STAND TO SEE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MODERATE THETA-E ADVECTION IS NOTED IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/T`STORMS IN AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT. MODELS ARE
ALSO SUGGESTING THAT THE FRONT MAY STALL AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ORIENTS ITSELF PARALLEL TO IT. THIS SUPPORTS AT LEAST A MENTION OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T`STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS FORCING
GRADUALLY WANES. PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE-TUNE THESE AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN TO THE REGION IN
THE SYSTEM`S WAKE.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME PATCHY
FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KMKL AND KJBR OVERNIGHT REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR.
ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT MVFR CIGS AROUND KJBR BETWEEN 15-18Z. LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$















000
FXUS64 KMRX 240706
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
306 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MOST OF THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BE EAST
OF OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. A VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS MAY KEEP
SOME CLOUDS OVER THAT AREA. A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. CLEAR AND CALM
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A BUILDING RIDGE
ALOFT...WITH LOWS IN THER UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
GONNA BE GETTING WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IMPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE 80 DEGREES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY. RIDGE PATTERN WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD...ALLOWING SHORTWAVE TO SPREAD PRECIP OVER THE AREA
DURING MIDWEEK. BUT THIS COULD BE A WAIT-AND-SEE KIND OF PATTERN
CHANGE GIVEN THE ADVERTISED STRENGTH OF THE EARLY WEEK RIDGING...IT
MAY PERSIST A LITTLE LONGER AND HOLD OFF THE PRECIP CHANCES
LIKEWISE. SO...WHILE CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS WILL FILL THE FORECAST
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL THURSDAY... EXPECT SOME REFINEMENT OF THAT
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             71  46  74  51 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  44  71  49 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       67  43  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              66  37  69  45 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/GC




000
FXUS64 KMRX 240518
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
118 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS FAVORABLE AT TRI TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL 2-4 DEGREES BELOW THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE. THERE
IS SOME CIRRUS TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...BUT IT SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL. WILL HAVE PREDOMINANT IFR CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPO LIFR...RETURNING TO VFR BY 15Z. CHA AND TYS WILL STAY
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMEG 240516
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1216 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...
9PM SURFACE MAP SHOWED A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH CALM WINDS PREVAILING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE... WERE LIFTING EAST AND
SHOULD EXIT THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST AR...MO AND IL WERE ASSOCIATED WITH
A MOISTURE AXIS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
RIDGE. 00Z NAM 925MB RH PROG SUGGESTS A FEW OF THESE LOWER CLOUDS
MAY MAKE IT INTO NORTHEAST AR TOWARD MORNING.

MOST RECENT UPDATE CONTAINED ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD TRENDS. GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES IN MOST PLACES...OVERNIGHT TEMPS
SHOULD COOL QUICKLY.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT BUT THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING AS
COLD AS THEY WERE THIS MORNING WITH LOWS FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
SO DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE
WARMER WITH FEWER CLOUDS AROUND WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. BY SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH SO
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SOME ON SATURDAY AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY AROUND 80 DEGREES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN START MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AS A
RESULT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. ON MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT WILL STILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH RAIN.

BY TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STARTING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SO THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND WEAKEN SOME
WEDNESDAY SO THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING WHAT WILL BE LEFT OF
THE COLD FRONT NEXT THURSDAY. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT MAY REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN. COOLER AIR SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE NEXT THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME PATCHY
FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KMKL AND KJBR OVERNIGHT REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR.
ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT MVFR CIGS AROUND KJBR BETWEEN 15-18Z. LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KOHX 240435 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1135 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EWD ACROSS MID STATE BRING
WITH IT MAINLY BKN AC/CI THRU AROUND 06/08Z W TO 06/12Z E. SOME PASSING
SCT CI ALOFT EXPECTED THRU 25/06Z. THUS...VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LIGHT NELY SFC WINDS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED THRU 25/06Z. ONLY EXCEPTION
COULD BE CKV...PER ERRATIC NIGHTLY FOG FORMATION POTENTIAL PER PARTICULAR
NIGHT`S LOCAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AFFECTS. AS A RESULT...WILL
CONTINUE MENTIONING OF MVFR TO TEMPO IFR FOG REDUCED VSBYS 24/09Z-24/14Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 916 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...
WEAK AND QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE IS TRAVERSING THE AREA THIS EVENING.
NO PRECIP IS OCCURRING BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FEATURE. FOR THE UPDATE...THE
ONLY CHANGE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE WITH THE CLOUD COVER GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT. THIS MAY OR MAY NOT REFLECT CHANGES WITH THE TEXT BASED
UPDATES. AT ANY RATE...WILL RESEND PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
RATHER QUICK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL BRING WITH IT MAINLY BKN
CI THRU 06/12Z-06/14Z. SOME PASSING SCT CI ALOFT EXPECTED THRU 24/24Z.
THUS...VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT NELY SFC WINDS EXPECTED THRU 24/24Z.
ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE CKV...PER ERRATIC NIGHTLY FOG FORMATION POTENTIAL
PER PARTICULAR NIGHT`S LOCAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AFFECTS. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING OF MVFR TO TEMPO IFR FOG REDUCED VSBYS
24/09Z-24/14Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 338 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...A SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE, WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP IN ACROSS THE MID STATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SEASONABLY
COOL, TOPPING OUT MAINLY IN THE 60S. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO
PUT A BIT OF A DIMMER ON OUR PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE TODAY.

EXPECT A DRY COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE
FORECAST FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, WITH HIGHS STILL AS WARM AS THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY,
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. LOOKS LIKE A RATHER BREEZY DAY ON TUESDAY
AS WELL, AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER OUR AREA. WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME GUSTS UP AROUND 30 MPH OR SO.

LONG TERM...STILL LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO OUR
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN BECOME ORIENTED LARGELY ALONG UPPER FLOW
AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD, WITH CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
MAYBE EVEN INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM, BUT EVEN THAT MODEL KEEPS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

31






000
FXUS64 KMEG 240232 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
932 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
9PM SURFACE MAP SHOWED A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH CALM WINDS PREVAILING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE... WERE LIFTING EAST AND
SHOULD EXIT THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST AR...MO AND IL WERE ASSOCIATED WITH
A MOISTURE AXIS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
RIDGE. 00Z NAM 925MB RH PROG SUGGESTS A FEW OF THESE LOWER CLOUDS
MAY MAKE IT INTO NORTHEAST AR TOWARD MORNING.

MOST RECENT UPDATE CONTAINED ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD TRENDS. GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES IN MOST PLACES...OVERNIGHT TEMPS
SHOULD COOL QUICKLY.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT BUT THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING AS
COLD AS THEY WERE THIS MORNING WITH LOWS FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
SO DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE
WARMER WITH FEWER CLOUDS AROUND WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. BY SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH SO
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SOME ON SATURDAY AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY AROUND 80 DEGREES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN START MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AS A
RESULT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. ON MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT WILL STILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH RAIN.

BY TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STARTING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SO THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND WEAKEN SOME
WEDNESDAY SO THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING WHAT WILL BE LEFT OF
THE COLD FRONT NEXT THURSDAY. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT MAY REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN. COOLER AIR SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE NEXT THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT MVFR
CIGS AROUND KJBR BETWEEN 15-18Z. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 240232 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
932 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
9PM SURFACE MAP SHOWED A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH CALM WINDS PREVAILING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE... WERE LIFTING EAST AND
SHOULD EXIT THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST AR...MO AND IL WERE ASSOCIATED WITH
A MOISTURE AXIS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
RIDGE. 00Z NAM 925MB RH PROG SUGGESTS A FEW OF THESE LOWER CLOUDS
MAY MAKE IT INTO NORTHEAST AR TOWARD MORNING.

MOST RECENT UPDATE CONTAINED ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD TRENDS. GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES IN MOST PLACES...OVERNIGHT TEMPS
SHOULD COOL QUICKLY.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT BUT THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING AS
COLD AS THEY WERE THIS MORNING WITH LOWS FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
SO DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE
WARMER WITH FEWER CLOUDS AROUND WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. BY SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH SO
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SOME ON SATURDAY AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY AROUND 80 DEGREES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN START MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AS A
RESULT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. ON MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT WILL STILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH RAIN.

BY TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STARTING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SO THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND WEAKEN SOME
WEDNESDAY SO THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING WHAT WILL BE LEFT OF
THE COLD FRONT NEXT THURSDAY. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT MAY REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN. COOLER AIR SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE NEXT THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT MVFR
CIGS AROUND KJBR BETWEEN 15-18Z. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 240216
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
916 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
WEAK AND QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE IS TRAVERSING THE AREA THIS EVENING.
NO PRECIP IS OCCURRING BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FEATURE. FOR THE UPDATE...THE
ONLY CHANGE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE WITH THE CLOUD COVER GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT. THIS MAY OR MAY NOT REFLECT CHANGES WITH THE TEXT BASED
UPDATES. AT ANY RATE...WILL RESEND PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
RATHER QUICK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL BRING WITH IT MAINLY BKN
CI THRU 06/12Z-06/14Z. SOME PASSING SCT CI ALOFT EXPECTED THRU 24/24Z.
THUS...VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT NELY SFC WINDS EXPECTED THRU 24/24Z.
ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE CKV...PER ERRATIC NIGHTLY FOG FORMATION POTENTIAL
PER PARTICULAR NIGHT`S LOCAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AFFECTS. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING OF MVFR TO TEMPO IFR FOG REDUCED VSBYS
24/09Z-24/14Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 338 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...A SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE, WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP IN ACROSS THE MID STATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SEASONABLY
COOL, TOPPING OUT MAINLY IN THE 60S. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO
PUT A BIT OF A DIMMER ON OUR PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE TODAY.

EXPECT A DRY COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE
FORECAST FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, WITH HIGHS STILL AS WARM AS THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY,
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. LOOKS LIKE A RATHER BREEZY DAY ON TUESDAY
AS WELL, AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER OUR AREA. WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME GUSTS UP AROUND 30 MPH OR SO.

LONG TERM...STILL LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO OUR
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN BECOME ORIENTED LARGELY ALONG UPPER FLOW
AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD, WITH CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
MAYBE EVEN INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM, BUT EVEN THAT MODEL KEEPS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 240216
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
916 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
WEAK AND QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE IS TRAVERSING THE AREA THIS EVENING.
NO PRECIP IS OCCURRING BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FEATURE. FOR THE UPDATE...THE
ONLY CHANGE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE WITH THE CLOUD COVER GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT. THIS MAY OR MAY NOT REFLECT CHANGES WITH THE TEXT BASED
UPDATES. AT ANY RATE...WILL RESEND PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
RATHER QUICK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL BRING WITH IT MAINLY BKN
CI THRU 06/12Z-06/14Z. SOME PASSING SCT CI ALOFT EXPECTED THRU 24/24Z.
THUS...VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT NELY SFC WINDS EXPECTED THRU 24/24Z.
ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE CKV...PER ERRATIC NIGHTLY FOG FORMATION POTENTIAL
PER PARTICULAR NIGHT`S LOCAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AFFECTS. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING OF MVFR TO TEMPO IFR FOG REDUCED VSBYS
24/09Z-24/14Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 338 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...A SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE, WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP IN ACROSS THE MID STATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SEASONABLY
COOL, TOPPING OUT MAINLY IN THE 60S. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO
PUT A BIT OF A DIMMER ON OUR PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE TODAY.

EXPECT A DRY COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE
FORECAST FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, WITH HIGHS STILL AS WARM AS THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY,
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. LOOKS LIKE A RATHER BREEZY DAY ON TUESDAY
AS WELL, AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER OUR AREA. WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME GUSTS UP AROUND 30 MPH OR SO.

LONG TERM...STILL LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO OUR
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN BECOME ORIENTED LARGELY ALONG UPPER FLOW
AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD, WITH CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
MAYBE EVEN INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM, BUT EVEN THAT MODEL KEEPS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KMRX 240134
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
930 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATE PLANNED. CIRRUS CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. LATE NIGHT TEMPERATURE DROP OFF. SON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...WITH A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TN RIVER VALLEY. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF
CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHICH WAS SLOWLY ERODING FROM
THE SOUTH OVER SOUTHWEST VA. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS WAS
OCCURRING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD
OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING MAINLY JUST
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A STRONG MID LEVEL
INVERSION. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MOISTURE WILL
AGAIN BE LIMITED RESULTING IN JUST ANOTHER SLIGHT INCREASE IN
CLOUDS. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL COMPROMISE WHERE SOME
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE AREA WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE SEASONALLY WARM AND DRY. A PATTERN CHANGE
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK
LIFT AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL PROVIDE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             43  71  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  42  69  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       42  69  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              37  66  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/MJB




000
FXUS64 KOHX 232344 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
644 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
RATHER QUICK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL BRING WITH IT MAINLY BKN
CI THRU 06/12Z-06/14Z. SOME PASSING SCT CI ALOFT EXPECTED THRU 24/24Z.
THUS...VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT NELY SFC WINDS EXPECTED THRU 24/24Z.
ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE CKV...PER ERRATIC NIGHTLY FOG FORMATION POTENTIAL
PER PARTICULAR NIGHT`S LOCAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AFFECTS. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING OF MVFR TO TEMPO IFR FOG REDUCED VSBYS
24/09Z-24/14Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 338 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...A SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE, WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP IN ACROSS THE MID STATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SEASONABLY
COOL, TOPPING OUT MAINLY IN THE 60S. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO
PUT A BIT OF A DIMMER ON OUR PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE TODAY.

EXPECT A DRY COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE
FORECAST FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, WITH HIGHS STILL AS WARM AS THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY,
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. LOOKS LIKE A RATHER BREEZY DAY ON TUESDAY
AS WELL, AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER OUR AREA. WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME GUSTS UP AROUND 30 MPH OR SO.

LONG TERM...STILL LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO OUR
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN BECOME ORIENTED LARGELY ALONG UPPER FLOW
AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD, WITH CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
MAYBE EVEN INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM, BUT EVEN THAT MODEL KEEPS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KMRX 232325
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
725 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WITH...MAINLY A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. AN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT BRINGING CIRRUS CLOUDS. LATE NIGHT CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOR
IFR FOG FORMATION AT TRI. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INVADE THE
AREA FROM THE NW LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KMEG 232321
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
621 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT BUT THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING AS
COLD AS THEY WERE THIS MORNING WITH LOWS FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
SO DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE
WARMER WITH FEWER CLOUDS AROUND WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. BY SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH SO
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SOME ON SATURDAY AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY AROUND 80 DEGREES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN START MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AS A
RESULT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. ON MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT WILL STILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH RAIN.

BY TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STARTING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SO THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND WEAKEN SOME
WEDNESDAY SO THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING WHAT WILL BE LEFT OF
THE COLD FRONT NEXT THURSDAY. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT MAY REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN. COOLER AIR SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE NEXT THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT MVFR
CIGS AROUND KJBR BETWEEN 15-18Z. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

KRM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 232038
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
338 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...A SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE, WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP IN ACROSS THE MID STATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SEASONABLY
COOL, TOPPING OUT MAINLY IN THE 60S. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO
PUT A BIT OF A DIMMER ON OUR PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE TODAY.

EXPECT A DRY COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE
FORECAST FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, WITH HIGHS STILL AS WARM AS THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY,
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. LOOKS LIKE A RATHER BREEZY DAY ON TUESDAY
AS WELL, AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER OUR AREA. WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME GUSTS UP AROUND 30 MPH OR SO.

.LONG TERM...STILL LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO OUR
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN BECOME ORIENTED LARGELY ALONG UPPER FLOW
AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD, WITH CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
MAYBE EVEN INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM, BUT EVEN THAT MODEL KEEPS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      44  69  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    42  69  48  76 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     41  67  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       42  69  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   43  70  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        42  70  48  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KMEG 232002
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
302 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT BUT THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING AS
COLD AS THEY WERE THIS MORNING WITH LOWS FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
SO DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE
WARMER WITH FEWER CLOUDS AROUND WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. BY SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH SO
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SOME ON SATURDAY AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY AROUND 80 DEGREES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN START MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AS A
RESULT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. ON MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT WILL STILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH RAIN.

BY TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STARTING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SO THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND WEAKEN SOME
WEDNESDAY SO THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING WHAT WILL BE LEFT OF
THE COLD FRONT NEXT THURSDAY. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT MAY REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN. COOLER AIR SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE NEXT THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (23/18Z-24/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMRX 231900
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
300 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST...WITH A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHICH WAS SLOWLY ERODING FROM THE SOUTH OVER
SOUTHWEST VA. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS WAS OCCURRING OVER
THE MS RIVER VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE TN RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A STRONG MID LEVEL INVERSION. A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MOISTURE WILL AGAIN BE
LIMITED RESULTING IN JUST ANOTHER SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS. AS FOR
TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL COMPROMISE WHERE SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE AREA WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE SEASONALLY WARM AND DRY. A PATTERN CHANGE
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK LIFT AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             43  71  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  42  69  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       42  69  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              37  66  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 231900
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
300 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST...WITH A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHICH WAS SLOWLY ERODING FROM THE SOUTH OVER
SOUTHWEST VA. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS WAS OCCURRING OVER
THE MS RIVER VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE TN RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A STRONG MID LEVEL INVERSION. A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MOISTURE WILL AGAIN BE
LIMITED RESULTING IN JUST ANOTHER SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS. AS FOR
TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL COMPROMISE WHERE SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE AREA WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE SEASONALLY WARM AND DRY. A PATTERN CHANGE
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK LIFT AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             43  71  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  42  69  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       42  69  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              37  66  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 231750 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
150 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...WILL REMAIN IN A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  THIS WILL KEEP
CONDTIONS VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 231750 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
150 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...WILL REMAIN IN A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  THIS WILL KEEP
CONDTIONS VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

MJB




000
FXUS64 KMEG 231716 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1216 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 931 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WHILE SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF EARLY MORNING FOG.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT-TERM REVOLVE AROUND PATCHY
FROST POTENTIAL THROUGH 12Z THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...

A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES EXISTS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
MORNING WITH FAVORABLE LOCATIONS HAVING FALLEN INTO THE UPPER
30S. PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE/EASTERN ARKANSAS/NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI HAVE ONLY DROPPED TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S AT THIS TIME.
HAVE BEEN WATCHING TEMPERATURE TRENDS CLOSELY AND WHILE
TEMPERATURES DROPPED QUICKLY...THEY HAVE REACHED THE DEWPOINT
WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THEM FROM DROPPING MUCH FURTHER IN THE
ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. FAVORABLE LOW-LYING
AREAS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
PATCHY FROST AND/OR FOG THIS MORNING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT H5 WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE MID SOUTH
TODAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL. LOWERED HIGHS JUST
A BIT FOR TODAY AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE 11-13C RANGE.
TIME-HEIGHTS ALSO SUGGEST THAT HIGH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON OFFSETTING SOLAR HEATING TO SOME DEGREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
THANKS TO A REINFORCING SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...EVEN
THOUGH 850 FLOW WILL BE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY...A LARGE WARM PLUME
ORIGINATING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SUNDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE WARMER AS LONGWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT.

FOR THE LONG TERM...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS FALLEN MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL US ON TUESDAY. IT NOW SHOWS MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE...HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
SEVERAL DAYS OF RETURN FLOW SHOULD YIELD DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH...EVEN THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
WEAK...STILL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF THUNDER GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH IS WHY POPS WEREN`T
INCREASED DRAMATICALLY. A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (23/18Z-24/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 231716 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1216 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 931 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WHILE SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF EARLY MORNING FOG.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT-TERM REVOLVE AROUND PATCHY
FROST POTENTIAL THROUGH 12Z THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...

A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES EXISTS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
MORNING WITH FAVORABLE LOCATIONS HAVING FALLEN INTO THE UPPER
30S. PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE/EASTERN ARKANSAS/NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI HAVE ONLY DROPPED TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S AT THIS TIME.
HAVE BEEN WATCHING TEMPERATURE TRENDS CLOSELY AND WHILE
TEMPERATURES DROPPED QUICKLY...THEY HAVE REACHED THE DEWPOINT
WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THEM FROM DROPPING MUCH FURTHER IN THE
ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. FAVORABLE LOW-LYING
AREAS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
PATCHY FROST AND/OR FOG THIS MORNING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT H5 WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE MID SOUTH
TODAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL. LOWERED HIGHS JUST
A BIT FOR TODAY AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE 11-13C RANGE.
TIME-HEIGHTS ALSO SUGGEST THAT HIGH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON OFFSETTING SOLAR HEATING TO SOME DEGREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
THANKS TO A REINFORCING SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...EVEN
THOUGH 850 FLOW WILL BE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY...A LARGE WARM PLUME
ORIGINATING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SUNDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE WARMER AS LONGWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT.

FOR THE LONG TERM...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS FALLEN MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL US ON TUESDAY. IT NOW SHOWS MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE...HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
SEVERAL DAYS OF RETURN FLOW SHOULD YIELD DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH...EVEN THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
WEAK...STILL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF THUNDER GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH IS WHY POPS WEREN`T
INCREASED DRAMATICALLY. A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (23/18Z-24/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 231658
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1158 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...BAND OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDINESS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BUT ANY CIGS THAT DEVELOP WILL REMAIN VFR. EXPECTING OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING RADIATION FOG ONCE AGAIN AT CKV. ELSEWHERE, LOOK FOR
VFR WX THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 803 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

MORNING UPDATE...

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO END THE FROST ADVISORY AND REMOVE FROST
WORDING FROM THE ZONES. EVERYTHING ELSE ON TRACK. UPDATE OUT IN A
FEW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

AVIATION...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS LED TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
MIDDLE TN...RESULTING IN FROST AND/OR FOG. IFR-MVFR FOG WILL
AFFECT CKV ON AND OFF THROUGH 14Z. BUT THEREAFTER...ALL TERMINALS
WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THIS
TAF PERIOD. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS ADVECTING IN TOWARDS
DAWN FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOG TO FORM
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN. LOOKS LIKE CSV WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR FOG SO WENT IFR THERE TOWARDS 12Z FRIDAY...WITH MVFR
VSBYS ELSEWHERE FOR LATE IN THIS 24-HR TAF PERIOD.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 231658
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1158 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...BAND OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDINESS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BUT ANY CIGS THAT DEVELOP WILL REMAIN VFR. EXPECTING OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING RADIATION FOG ONCE AGAIN AT CKV. ELSEWHERE, LOOK FOR
VFR WX THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 803 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

MORNING UPDATE...

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO END THE FROST ADVISORY AND REMOVE FROST
WORDING FROM THE ZONES. EVERYTHING ELSE ON TRACK. UPDATE OUT IN A
FEW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

AVIATION...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS LED TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
MIDDLE TN...RESULTING IN FROST AND/OR FOG. IFR-MVFR FOG WILL
AFFECT CKV ON AND OFF THROUGH 14Z. BUT THEREAFTER...ALL TERMINALS
WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THIS
TAF PERIOD. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS ADVECTING IN TOWARDS
DAWN FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOG TO FORM
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN. LOOKS LIKE CSV WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR FOG SO WENT IFR THERE TOWARDS 12Z FRIDAY...WITH MVFR
VSBYS ELSEWHERE FOR LATE IN THIS 24-HR TAF PERIOD.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KMEG 231431
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
931 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WHILE SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF EARLY MORNING FOG.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT-TERM REVOLVE AROUND PATCHY
FROST POTENTIAL THROUGH 12Z THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...

A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES EXISTS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
MORNING WITH FAVORABLE LOCATIONS HAVING FALLEN INTO THE UPPER
30S. PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE/EASTERN ARKANSAS/NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI HAVE ONLY DROPPED TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S AT THIS TIME.
HAVE BEEN WATCHING TEMPERATURE TRENDS CLOSELY AND WHILE
TEMPERATURES DROPPED QUICKLY...THEY HAVE REACHED THE DEWPOINT
WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THEM FROM DROPPING MUCH FURTHER IN THE
ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. FAVORABLE LOW-LYING
AREAS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
PATCHY FROST AND/OR FOG THIS MORNING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT H5 WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE MID SOUTH
TODAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL. LOWERED HIGHS JUST
A BIT FOR TODAY AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE 11-13C RANGE.
TIME-HEIGHTS ALSO SUGGEST THAT HIGH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON OFFSETTING SOLAR HEATING TO SOME DEGREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
THANKS TO A REINFORCING SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...EVEN
THOUGH 850 FLOW WILL BE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY...A LARGE WARM PLUME
ORIGINATING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SUNDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE WARMER AS LONGWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT.

FOR THE LONG TERM...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS FALLEN MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL US ON TUESDAY. IT NOW SHOWS MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE...HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
SEVERAL DAYS OF RETURN FLOW SHOULD YIELD DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH...EVEN THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
WEAK...STILL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF THUNDER GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH IS WHY POPS WEREN`T
INCREASED DRAMATICALLY. A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING LIGHT FOG
REDEVELOPING LATE AT MKL. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 231431
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
931 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WHILE SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF EARLY MORNING FOG.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT-TERM REVOLVE AROUND PATCHY
FROST POTENTIAL THROUGH 12Z THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...

A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES EXISTS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
MORNING WITH FAVORABLE LOCATIONS HAVING FALLEN INTO THE UPPER
30S. PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE/EASTERN ARKANSAS/NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI HAVE ONLY DROPPED TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S AT THIS TIME.
HAVE BEEN WATCHING TEMPERATURE TRENDS CLOSELY AND WHILE
TEMPERATURES DROPPED QUICKLY...THEY HAVE REACHED THE DEWPOINT
WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THEM FROM DROPPING MUCH FURTHER IN THE
ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. FAVORABLE LOW-LYING
AREAS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
PATCHY FROST AND/OR FOG THIS MORNING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT H5 WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE MID SOUTH
TODAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL. LOWERED HIGHS JUST
A BIT FOR TODAY AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE 11-13C RANGE.
TIME-HEIGHTS ALSO SUGGEST THAT HIGH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON OFFSETTING SOLAR HEATING TO SOME DEGREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
THANKS TO A REINFORCING SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...EVEN
THOUGH 850 FLOW WILL BE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY...A LARGE WARM PLUME
ORIGINATING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SUNDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE WARMER AS LONGWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT.

FOR THE LONG TERM...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS FALLEN MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL US ON TUESDAY. IT NOW SHOWS MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE...HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
SEVERAL DAYS OF RETURN FLOW SHOULD YIELD DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH...EVEN THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
WEAK...STILL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF THUNDER GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH IS WHY POPS WEREN`T
INCREASED DRAMATICALLY. A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING LIGHT FOG
REDEVELOPING LATE AT MKL. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMRX 231350
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
950 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST VA AND
NORTHEAST TN THIS MORNING...WHICH WERE TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG MID
LEVEL INVERSION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THIS INVERSION WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THUS...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO
SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH
CLOUD COVER WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

OVERALL...HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO REMOVE
THE FROST ADVISORY AND TO MENTION DECREASING CLOUDINESS OVER
SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHEAST TN.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  43  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  66  41  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       66  41  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              61  35  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG




000
FXUS64 KOHX 231303
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
803 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.MORNING UPDATE...

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO END THE FROST ADVISORY AND REMOVE FROST
WORDING FROM THE ZONES. EVERYTHING ELSE ON TRACK. UPDATE OUT IN A
FEW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

AVIATION...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS LED TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
MIDDLE TN...RESULTING IN FROST AND/OR FOG. IFR-MVFR FOG WILL
AFFECT CKV ON AND OFF THROUGH 14Z. BUT THEREAFTER...ALL TERMINALS
WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THIS
TAF PERIOD. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS ADVECTING IN TOWARDS
DAWN FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOG TO FORM
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN. LOOKS LIKE CSV WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR FOG SO WENT IFR THERE TOWARDS 12Z FRIDAY...WITH MVFR
VSBYS ELSEWHERE FOR LATE IN THIS 24-HR TAF PERIOD.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL






000
FXUS64 KOHX 231147
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
647 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS LED TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
MIDDLE TN...RESULTING IN FROST AND/OR FOG. IFR-MVFR FOG WILL
AFFECT CKV ON AND OFF THROUGH 14Z. BUT THEREAFTER...ALL TERMINALS
WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THIS
TAF PERIOD. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS ADVECTING IN TOWARDS
DAWN FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOG TO FORM
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN. LOOKS LIKE CSV WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR FOG SO WENT IFR THERE TOWARDS 12Z FRIDAY...WITH MVFR
VSBYS ELSEWHERE FOR LATE IN THIS 24-HR TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE TAKING OVER FROM THE GULF COAST
TO THE GREAT LAKES.  BECAUSE OF THIS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S FOR MOST.  WITH THE LOSS OF A COUPLE MORE DEGREES EXPECTED...WE
ARE STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST AROUND MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING.  HOPEFULLY EVERYONE WITH SENSITIVE
VEGETATION HAS TAKEN THE PROPER PROTECTIVE PRECAUTIONS.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...A SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN CANADA THAT IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTER
OF THE COUNTRY WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  AS IT
DOES...A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA AND A OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM WILL ONLY LEAD TO SOME CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE STATE TONIGHT.
THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE THE CULPRIT IN KEEPING US IN THE MID 40S
TONIGHT AND NEGATE ANY CONCERNS FOR A SECOND NIGHT OF FROST.

STARTING FRIDAY...AND SATURDAY IN PARTICULAR...WE WILL START TO SEE
A CONSIDERABLE WARM UP AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA.
THICKNESS VALUES AND MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST AFTERNOON HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY 9-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALSO...ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR DEW POINTS TO CREEP TOWARDS 60 DEGREES.  THIS IS
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT EITHER WAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS RISE IN THE REGION.  HAVE BUMPED POPS
AND INTRODUCED THUNDER INTO THE GRIDS FOR THIS REASON.  THIS SYSTEM
WILL BEAR WATCHING AS A WELL-AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH SPARKS
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PLAINS AND PUSHES A DECENT COLD FRONT INTO THE
STATE ON WEDNESDAY.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

AL






000
FXUS64 KMEG 231103
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
603 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT-TERM REVOLVE AROUND PATCHY
FROST POTENTIAL THROUGH 12Z THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...

A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES EXISTS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
MORNING WITH FAVORABLE LOCATIONS HAVING FALLEN INTO THE UPPER
30S. PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE/EASTERN ARKANSAS/NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI HAVE ONLY DROPPED TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S AT THIS TIME.
HAVE BEEN WATCHING TEMPERATURE TRENDS CLOSELY AND WHILE
TEMPERATURES DROPPED QUICKLY...THEY HAVE REACHED THE DEWPOINT
WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THEM FROM DROPPING MUCH FURTHER IN THE
ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. FAVORABLE LOW-LYING
AREAS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
PATCHY FROST AND/OR FOG THIS MORNING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT H5 WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE MID SOUTH
TODAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL. LOWERED HIGHS JUST
A BIT FOR TODAY AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE 11-13C RANGE.
TIME-HEIGHTS ALSO SUGGEST THAT HIGH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON OFFSETTING SOLAR HEATING TO SOME DEGREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
THANKS TO A REINFORCING SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...EVEN
THOUGH 850 FLOW WILL BE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY...A LARGE WARM PLUME
ORIGINATING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SUNDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE WARMER AS LONGWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT.

FOR THE LONG TERM...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS FALLEN MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL US ON TUESDAY. IT NOW SHOWS MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE...HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
SEVERAL DAYS OF RETURN FLOW SHOULD YIELD DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH...EVEN THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
WEAK...STILL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF THUNDER GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH IS WHY POPS WEREN`T
INCREASED DRAMATICALLY. A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING LIGHT FOG
REDEVELOPING LATE AT MKL. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMRX 231102 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
702 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING AT KTRI FROM LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS...BUT THEY WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK UP AND LIFT BY
14-15Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EACH TERMINAL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST MONROE.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KOHX 230834
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
334 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE TAKING OVER FROM THE GULF COAST
TO THE GREAT LAKES.  BECAUSE OF THIS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S FOR MOST.  WITH THE LOSS OF A COUPLE MORE DEGREES EXPECTED...WE
ARE STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST AROUND MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING.  HOPEFULLY EVERYONE WITH SENSITIVE
VEGETATION HAS TAKEN THE PROPER PROTECTIVE PRECAUTIONS.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...A SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN CANADA THAT IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTER
OF THE COUNTRY WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  AS IT
DOES...A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA AND A OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM WILL ONLY LEAD TO SOME CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE STATE TONIGHT.
THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE THE CULPRIT IN KEEPING US IN THE MID 40S
TONIGHT AND NEGATE ANY CONCERNS FOR A SECOND NIGHT OF FROST.

STARTING FRIDAY...AND SATURDAY IN PARTICULAR...WE WILL START TO SEE
A CONSIDERABLE WARM UP AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA.
THICKNESS VALUES AND MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST AFTERNOON HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY 9-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALSO...ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR DEW POINTS TO CREEP TOWARDS 60 DEGREES.  THIS IS
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT EITHER WAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS RISE IN THE REGION.  HAVE BUMPED POPS
AND INTRODUCED THUNDER INTO THE GRIDS FOR THIS REASON.  THIS SYSTEM
WILL BEAR WATCHING AS A WELL-AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH SPARKS
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PLAINS AND PUSHES A DECENT COLD FRONT INTO THE
STATE ON WEDNESDAY.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 24/06Z WITH LIGHT NELY
SFC WINDS EXPECTED. AS PREVIOUSLY EXPLAINED...CKV/CSV DID NOT
EXPERIENCE ANY MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH NOT MUCH
OVERALL CHANGE IN WX PATTERN EXPECTED THRU THIS PORTION OF
FORECAST PERIOD...BELIEVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOG FORMATION COULD
STILL POSSIBLY PER USUAL LOCAL AFFECT INFLUENCES...BUT CONTINUE TO
BELIEVE THESE CHANCES TO BE NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A
FM/TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AFTER 24/00Z...BUT WITH MINIMAL TO NO IMPACT
TO AVIATION OPERATIONS EXPECTED...WILL CONTINUE WITH SKC THRU
24/06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      66  45  71  50 /   0   0  10   0
CLARKSVILLE    65  43  71  50 /   0   0  10   0
CROSSVILLE     63  42  66  45 /   0   0  10   0
COLUMBIA       65  42  70  48 /   0   0  10   0
LAWRENCEBURG   67  44  71  48 /   0   0  10   0
WAVERLY        67  44  72  50 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TN.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KMEG 230821
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
321 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT-TERM REVOLVE AROUND PATCHY
FROST POTENTIAL THROUGH 12Z THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...

A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES EXISTS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
MORNING WITH FAVORABLE LOCATIONS HAVING FALLEN INTO THE UPPER
30S. PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE/EASTERN ARKANSAS/NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI HAVE ONLY DROPPED TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S AT THIS TIME.
HAVE BEEN WATCHING TEMPERATURE TRENDS CLOSELY AND WHILE
TEMPERATURES DROPPED QUICKLY...THEY HAVE REACHED THE DEWPOINT
WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THEM FROM DROPPING MUCH FURTHER IN THE
ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. FAVORABLE LOW-LYING
AREAS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
PATCHY FROST AND/OR FOG THIS MORNING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT H5 WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE MID SOUTH
TODAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL. LOWERED HIGHS JUST
A BIT FOR TODAY AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE 11-13C RANGE.
TIME-HEIGHTS ALSO SUGGEST THAT HIGH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON OFFSETTING SOLAR HEATING TO SOME DEGREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
THANKS TO A REINFORCING SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...EVEN
THOUGH 850 FLOW WILL BE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY...A LARGE WARM PLUME
ORIGINATING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SUNDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE WARMER AS LONGWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT.

FOR THE LONG TERM...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS FALLEN MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL US ON TUESDAY. IT NOW SHOWS MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE...HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
SEVERAL DAYS OF RETURN FLOW SHOULD YIELD DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH...EVEN THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
WEAK...STILL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF THUNDER GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH IS WHY POPS WEREN`T
INCREASED DRAMATICALLY. A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

&&

AVIATION...
06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMEG 230821
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
321 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT-TERM REVOLVE AROUND PATCHY
FROST POTENTIAL THROUGH 12Z THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...

A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES EXISTS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
MORNING WITH FAVORABLE LOCATIONS HAVING FALLEN INTO THE UPPER
30S. PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE/EASTERN ARKANSAS/NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI HAVE ONLY DROPPED TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S AT THIS TIME.
HAVE BEEN WATCHING TEMPERATURE TRENDS CLOSELY AND WHILE
TEMPERATURES DROPPED QUICKLY...THEY HAVE REACHED THE DEWPOINT
WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THEM FROM DROPPING MUCH FURTHER IN THE
ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. FAVORABLE LOW-LYING
AREAS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
PATCHY FROST AND/OR FOG THIS MORNING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT H5 WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE MID SOUTH
TODAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL. LOWERED HIGHS JUST
A BIT FOR TODAY AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE 11-13C RANGE.
TIME-HEIGHTS ALSO SUGGEST THAT HIGH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON OFFSETTING SOLAR HEATING TO SOME DEGREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
THANKS TO A REINFORCING SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...EVEN
THOUGH 850 FLOW WILL BE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY...A LARGE WARM PLUME
ORIGINATING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SUNDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE WARMER AS LONGWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT.

FOR THE LONG TERM...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS FALLEN MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL US ON TUESDAY. IT NOW SHOWS MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE...HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
SEVERAL DAYS OF RETURN FLOW SHOULD YIELD DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH...EVEN THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
WEAK...STILL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF THUNDER GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH IS WHY POPS WEREN`T
INCREASED DRAMATICALLY. A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

&&

AVIATION...
06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMRX 230703
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
303 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...DENSE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT SKIRTED THE REGION YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO LINGER
BENEATH THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION. THIS HAS RESULTED IN CONTINUED
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE. THIS CLOUD SHIELD HAS ACTUALLY EXPANDED INTO THE
NORTHERN PLATEAU AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY THIS MORNING.
AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN
THOSE AREAS...COMPLETELY DIMINISHING THE FROST THREAT. THUS...HAVE
CANCELLED THE FROST ADVISORY IN ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES WHERE CLEAR CONDITIONS HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

A 925 MB RH ANALYSIS INDICATES THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING...BEFORE QUICKLY BREAKING UP BY MIDDAY INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON AS HEATING REALLY KICKS IN. WITH AN UPPER-RIDGE
AXIS MOVING IN AND AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...HIGHS IN THE 60S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...MAKING FOR A BEAUTIFUL
AUTUMN AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATER
TONIGHT...BUT HIGHER THICKNESS VALUES WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...MAKING ANY FROST THREAT LOCALIZED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. THUS...WILL HOLD
OF ON AN ADVISORY FOR NOW AND WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT IT.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME DEGREE OF UPPER RIDGING GENERALLY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...THEN
SOME TROUGHING TO OUR WEST WHICH LEADS TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE RIDGING DURING THE EARLY
PERIODS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND ALLOW SOME SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES
AS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST GRIDS. GFSX AND ECMX MOS POPS TRENDING
UPWARD FOR DAY 7 (WEDNESDAY) SO I NUDGED POPS UP AMD INTRODUCED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH KEEPS OUR GRIDS IN LINE
WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES.

THE SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS IN GFSX MOS TEMPS FROM 12Z TO 00Z RUNS ARE
KINDA PUZZLING. HOWEVER...I DID MAKE SLIGHT CHANGES FOR THE WEEKEND
MAX TEMPS GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS AND RIDGING. JUST MINOR TWEAKS
OVERALL AS THE MONTH OF OCTOBER CLOSES OUT IN THE MORE TYPICAL DRY
FASHION. ENJOY THE STRETCH OF GREAT FALL WEATHER DAYS...AND LESS
CHILLY NIGHTS AS MIN TEMPS MODERATE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  43  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  66  41  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       66  41  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              61  35  66  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST MONROE.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP/TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 230546 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
146 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
BKN/OVC DECKS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL AT KTRI
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE BREAKING UP AND DIMINISHING AFTER SUNRISE. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL AT EACH TERMINAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SCOTT TN-SEVIER
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMEG 230529
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1229 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAILED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS
EVENING. FORECAST ON TRACK... BUT HAVE INTRODUCED A MENTION OF
PATCHY LIGHT FOG WHERE CROSSOVER TEMPS APPEARED MOST REACHABLE
OVERNIGHT.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 347 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATES THE WEATHER AND IT WILL CONTINUE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 40S AND UPPER 30S
ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE JUST HIGH
ENOUGH THAT FROST WILL NOT FORM...EXPECT SOME ISOLATED LOW LYING
AREAS. DID NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY BECAUSE FROST WILL NOT BE
WIDE SPREAD AND IF ANY IT WILL BE PATCHY.

ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MID-
SOUTH AND WILL BRING IN SOME CLOUDS...UNFORTUNATELY THIS MAY BLOCK
THE VIEW OF THE SOLAR ECLIPSE. YET THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ONLY
BRING IN CLOUDS...NO PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL BRING A RETURN
TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATE ON MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES IT TIME MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IT BRINGS
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA...HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES DON/T CHANGE
MUCH AT THE END OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH THAT THIS WILL DEVELOP AS MOST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
THIS BEING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS WEAK IN THE MID-SOUTH.
THUS ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION YET THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT THE MID-SOUTH MAY STAY DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. PUT IN CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TLSJR

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 230433 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1133 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...06Z AVAITION DISCUSSION.
WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 24/06Z WITH LIGHT NELY SFC WINDS
EXPECTED. AS PREVIOUSLY EXPLAINED...CKV/CSV DID NOT EXPERIENCE ANY MVFR FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH NOT MUCH OVERALL CHANGE IN WX PATTERN EXPECTED
THRU THIS PORTION OF FORECAST PERIOD...BELIEVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOG FORMATION
COULD STILL POSSIBLY PER USUAL LOCAL AFFECT INFLUENCES...BUT CONTINUE TO
BELIEVE THESE CHANCES TO BE NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A FM/TEMPO
GROUP AT THIS TIME. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AFTER 24/00Z...BUT WITH MINIMAL TO NO IMPACT TO AVIATION OPERATIONS
EXPECTED...WILL CONTINUE WITH SKC THRU 24/06Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 649 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 23/24Z WITH LIGHT NELY SFC WINDS EXPECTED.
WITH CKV/CSV DID NOT EXPERIENCE ANY MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
AND NOT MUCH OVERALL CHANGE IN WX PATTERN EXPECTED THRU PERIOD...
BELIEVE FOG FORMATION COULD STILL POSSIBLY OCCUR PER USUAL LOCAL
AFFECT INFLUENCES...BUT BELIEVE OVERALL CHANCES LESS THAN AT
22/18Z TAF ISSUANCE TIME...DOES NOT JUSTIFY A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS
TIME...AND REMOVED MENTION IN 23/00Z TAF FORECAST ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 518 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION MID 30S IN MAINLY
LOW LYING AND SHELTERED AREAS LATE IN THE NIGHT ACROSS ALL COUNTIES
TO MATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FROST ADVISORY. HIGHLIGHTED THIS ESPECIALLY
IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 158 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE...ALLOWING FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL NIGHT. BEST FROST
AREAS WILL BE VALLEYS...LOW LYING AND AREAS THAT ARE SHELTERED.
THIS MAY NOT BE A WIDESPREAD FROST EVENT BUT I THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH AROUND TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS TO
PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER EASTERN U.S. WILL PULL FARTHER EAST TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A SOMEWHAT SMALL UPPER RIDGE TO WORK ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL EAT INTO UPPER
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT NO RAIN. A
MUCH STRONGER AND BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
THIS WAY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL WARM TEMPS UP INTO THE 70S
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH 80 POSSIBLE IN NASHVILLE BY MONDAY. NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS CENTRAL
PLAINS UPPER TROUGH ROLLS THIS WAY. EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN GFS.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 230433 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1133 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...06Z AVAITION DISCUSSION.
WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 24/06Z WITH LIGHT NELY SFC WINDS
EXPECTED. AS PREVIOUSLY EXPLAINED...CKV/CSV DID NOT EXPERIENCE ANY MVFR FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH NOT MUCH OVERALL CHANGE IN WX PATTERN EXPECTED
THRU THIS PORTION OF FORECAST PERIOD...BELIEVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOG FORMATION
COULD STILL POSSIBLY PER USUAL LOCAL AFFECT INFLUENCES...BUT CONTINUE TO
BELIEVE THESE CHANCES TO BE NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A FM/TEMPO
GROUP AT THIS TIME. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AFTER 24/00Z...BUT WITH MINIMAL TO NO IMPACT TO AVIATION OPERATIONS
EXPECTED...WILL CONTINUE WITH SKC THRU 24/06Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 649 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 23/24Z WITH LIGHT NELY SFC WINDS EXPECTED.
WITH CKV/CSV DID NOT EXPERIENCE ANY MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
AND NOT MUCH OVERALL CHANGE IN WX PATTERN EXPECTED THRU PERIOD...
BELIEVE FOG FORMATION COULD STILL POSSIBLY OCCUR PER USUAL LOCAL
AFFECT INFLUENCES...BUT BELIEVE OVERALL CHANCES LESS THAN AT
22/18Z TAF ISSUANCE TIME...DOES NOT JUSTIFY A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS
TIME...AND REMOVED MENTION IN 23/00Z TAF FORECAST ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 518 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION MID 30S IN MAINLY
LOW LYING AND SHELTERED AREAS LATE IN THE NIGHT ACROSS ALL COUNTIES
TO MATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FROST ADVISORY. HIGHLIGHTED THIS ESPECIALLY
IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 158 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE...ALLOWING FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL NIGHT. BEST FROST
AREAS WILL BE VALLEYS...LOW LYING AND AREAS THAT ARE SHELTERED.
THIS MAY NOT BE A WIDESPREAD FROST EVENT BUT I THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH AROUND TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS TO
PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER EASTERN U.S. WILL PULL FARTHER EAST TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A SOMEWHAT SMALL UPPER RIDGE TO WORK ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL EAT INTO UPPER
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT NO RAIN. A
MUCH STRONGER AND BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
THIS WAY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL WARM TEMPS UP INTO THE 70S
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH 80 POSSIBLE IN NASHVILLE BY MONDAY. NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS CENTRAL
PLAINS UPPER TROUGH ROLLS THIS WAY. EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN GFS.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KMEG 230240 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
940 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAILED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS
EVENING. FORECAST ON TRACK... BUT HAVE INTRODUCED A MENTION OF
PATCHY LIGHT FOG WHERE CROSSOVER TEMPS APPEARED MOST REACHABLE
OVERNIGHT.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 347 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATES THE WEATHER AND IT WILL CONTINUE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

.TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 40S AND UPPER 30S
ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE JUST HIGH
ENOUGH THAT FROST WILL NOT FORM...EXPECT SOME ISOLATED LOW LYING
AREAS. DID NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY BECAUSE FROST WILL NOT BE
WIDE SPREAD AND IF ANY IT WILL BE PATCHY.

ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MID-
SOUTH AND WILL BRING IN SOME CLOUDS...UNFORTUNATELY THIS MAY BLOCK
THE VIEW OF THE SOLAR ECLIPSE. YET THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ONLY
BRING IN CLOUDS...NO PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL BRING A RETURN
TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATE ON MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES IT TIME MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IT BRINGS
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA...HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES DON/T CHANGE
MUCH AT THE END OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH THAT THIS WILL DEVELOP AS MOST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
THIS BEING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS WEAK IN THE MID-SOUTH.
THUS ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION YET THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT THE MID-SOUTH MAY STAY DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. PUT IN CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TLSJR

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMRX 230220
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1020 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS STILL HANGING TOUGH IN THE NORTHEAST...AND
EXPECT THEM TO BE SLOWER TO CLEAR THAN CURRENT FORECAST. FROST
LOOKS LESS LIKELY AS WELL GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT CLEARING LATE TONIGHT WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME SPOTS TO SEE
PATCHY FROST. SO WILL LEAVE IT UP FOR NOW. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
TO SKY COVER...TEMPS...AND DEW POINTS. UPDATE OUT SOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             42  67  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  39  65  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       39  65  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              35  62  35  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SCOTT TN-SEVIER
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 230220
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1020 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS STILL HANGING TOUGH IN THE NORTHEAST...AND
EXPECT THEM TO BE SLOWER TO CLEAR THAN CURRENT FORECAST. FROST
LOOKS LESS LIKELY AS WELL GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT CLEARING LATE TONIGHT WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME SPOTS TO SEE
PATCHY FROST. SO WILL LEAVE IT UP FOR NOW. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
TO SKY COVER...TEMPS...AND DEW POINTS. UPDATE OUT SOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             42  67  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  39  65  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       39  65  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              35  62  35  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SCOTT TN-SEVIER
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 222349 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
649 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 23/24Z WITH LIGHT NELY SFC WINDS EXPECTED.
WITH CKV/CSV DID NOT EXPERIENCE ANY MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
AND NOT MUCH OVERALL CHANGE IN WX PATTERN EXPECTED THRU PERIOD...
BELIEVE FOG FORMATION COULD STILL POSSIBLY OCCUR PER USUAL LOCAL
AFFECT INFLUENCES...BUT BELIEVE OVERALL CHANCES LESS THAN AT
22/18Z TAF ISSUANCE TIME...DOES NOT JUSTIFY A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS
TIME...AND REMOVED MENTION IN 23/00Z TAF FORECAST ISSUANCE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 518 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION MID 30S IN MAINLY
LOW LYING AND SHELTERED AREAS LATE IN THE NIGHT ACROSS ALL COUNTIES
TO MATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FROST ADVISORY. HIGHLIGHTED THIS ESPECIALLY
IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 158 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE...ALLOWING FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL NIGHT. BEST FROST
AREAS WILL BE VALLEYS...LOW LYING AND AREAS THAT ARE SHELTERED.
THIS MAY NOT BE A WIDESPREAD FROST EVENT BUT I THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH AROUND TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS TO
PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER EASTERN U.S. WILL PULL FARTHER EAST TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A SOMEWHAT SMALL UPPER RIDGE TO WORK ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL EAT INTO UPPER
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT NO RAIN. A
MUCH STRONGER AND BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
THIS WAY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL WARM TEMPS UP INTO THE 70S
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH 80 POSSIBLE IN NASHVILLE BY MONDAY. NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS CENTRAL
PLAINS UPPER TROUGH ROLLS THIS WAY. EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN GFS.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 222349 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
649 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 23/24Z WITH LIGHT NELY SFC WINDS EXPECTED.
WITH CKV/CSV DID NOT EXPERIENCE ANY MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
AND NOT MUCH OVERALL CHANGE IN WX PATTERN EXPECTED THRU PERIOD...
BELIEVE FOG FORMATION COULD STILL POSSIBLY OCCUR PER USUAL LOCAL
AFFECT INFLUENCES...BUT BELIEVE OVERALL CHANCES LESS THAN AT
22/18Z TAF ISSUANCE TIME...DOES NOT JUSTIFY A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS
TIME...AND REMOVED MENTION IN 23/00Z TAF FORECAST ISSUANCE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 518 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION MID 30S IN MAINLY
LOW LYING AND SHELTERED AREAS LATE IN THE NIGHT ACROSS ALL COUNTIES
TO MATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FROST ADVISORY. HIGHLIGHTED THIS ESPECIALLY
IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 158 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE...ALLOWING FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL NIGHT. BEST FROST
AREAS WILL BE VALLEYS...LOW LYING AND AREAS THAT ARE SHELTERED.
THIS MAY NOT BE A WIDESPREAD FROST EVENT BUT I THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH AROUND TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS TO
PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER EASTERN U.S. WILL PULL FARTHER EAST TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A SOMEWHAT SMALL UPPER RIDGE TO WORK ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL EAT INTO UPPER
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT NO RAIN. A
MUCH STRONGER AND BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
THIS WAY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL WARM TEMPS UP INTO THE 70S
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH 80 POSSIBLE IN NASHVILLE BY MONDAY. NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS CENTRAL
PLAINS UPPER TROUGH ROLLS THIS WAY. EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN GFS.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$
31






000
FXUS64 KMRX 222326
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
726 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...SOME LOW CLOUDS LINGERING NORTHEAST CORNER. THESE MAY
PERSIST FOR SOME TIME AT TRI. THESE CIGS MAY BE AT MVFR LEVELS AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP JUST ABOVE THAT THRESHOLD.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD ALL SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SCOTT TN-SEVIER
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 222318
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
618 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 347 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATES THE WEATHER AND IT WILL CONTINUE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

..TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 40S AND UPPER 30S
ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE JUST HIGH
ENOUGH THAT FROST WILL NOT FORM...EXPECT SOME ISOLATED LOW LYING
AREAS. DID NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY BECAUSE FROST WILL NOT BE
WIDE SPREAD AND IF ANY IT WILL BE PATCHY.

ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MID-
SOUTH AND WILL BRING IN SOME CLOUDS...UNFORTUNATELY THIS MAY BLOCK
THE VIEW OF THE SOLAR ECLIPSE. YET THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ONLY
BRING IN CLOUDS...NO PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL BRING A RETURN
TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATE ON MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES IT TIME MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IT BRINGS
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA...HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES DON/T CHANGE
MUCH AT THE END OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH THAT THIS WILL DEVELOP AS MOST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
THIS BEING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS WEAK IN THE MID-SOUTH.
THUS ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION YET THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT THE MID-SOUTH MAY STAY DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. PUT IN CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TLSJR

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KRM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 222318
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
618 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 347 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATES THE WEATHER AND IT WILL CONTINUE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

..TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 40S AND UPPER 30S
ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE JUST HIGH
ENOUGH THAT FROST WILL NOT FORM...EXPECT SOME ISOLATED LOW LYING
AREAS. DID NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY BECAUSE FROST WILL NOT BE
WIDE SPREAD AND IF ANY IT WILL BE PATCHY.

ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MID-
SOUTH AND WILL BRING IN SOME CLOUDS...UNFORTUNATELY THIS MAY BLOCK
THE VIEW OF THE SOLAR ECLIPSE. YET THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ONLY
BRING IN CLOUDS...NO PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL BRING A RETURN
TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATE ON MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES IT TIME MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IT BRINGS
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA...HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES DON/T CHANGE
MUCH AT THE END OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH THAT THIS WILL DEVELOP AS MOST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
THIS BEING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS WEAK IN THE MID-SOUTH.
THUS ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION YET THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT THE MID-SOUTH MAY STAY DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. PUT IN CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TLSJR

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KRM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 222218 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
518 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION MID 30S IN MAINLY
LOW LYING AND SHELTERED AREAS LATE IN THE NIGHT ACROSS ALL COUNTIES
TO MATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FROST ADVISORY. HIGHLIGHTED THIS ESPECIALLY
IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 158 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE...ALLOWING FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL NIGHT. BEST FROST
AREAS WILL BE VALLEYS...LOW LYING AND AREAS THAT ARE SHELTERED.
THIS MAY NOT BE A WIDESPREAD FROST EVENT BUT I THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH AROUND TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS TO
PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER EASTERN U.S. WILL PULL FARTHER EAST TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A SOMEWHAT SMALL UPPER RIDGE TO WORK ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL EAT INTO UPPER
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT NO RAIN. A
MUCH STRONGER AND BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
THIS WAY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL WARM TEMPS UP INTO THE 70S
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH 80 POSSIBLE IN NASHVILLE BY MONDAY. NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS CENTRAL
PLAINS UPPER TROUGH ROLLS THIS WAY. EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN GFS.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 222218 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
518 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION MID 30S IN MAINLY
LOW LYING AND SHELTERED AREAS LATE IN THE NIGHT ACROSS ALL COUNTIES
TO MATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FROST ADVISORY. HIGHLIGHTED THIS ESPECIALLY
IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 158 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE...ALLOWING FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL NIGHT. BEST FROST
AREAS WILL BE VALLEYS...LOW LYING AND AREAS THAT ARE SHELTERED.
THIS MAY NOT BE A WIDESPREAD FROST EVENT BUT I THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH AROUND TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS TO
PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER EASTERN U.S. WILL PULL FARTHER EAST TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A SOMEWHAT SMALL UPPER RIDGE TO WORK ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL EAT INTO UPPER
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT NO RAIN. A
MUCH STRONGER AND BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
THIS WAY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL WARM TEMPS UP INTO THE 70S
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH 80 POSSIBLE IN NASHVILLE BY MONDAY. NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS CENTRAL
PLAINS UPPER TROUGH ROLLS THIS WAY. EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN GFS.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KMEG 222047
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
347 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATES THE WEATHER AND IT WILL CONTINUE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

...TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 40S AND UPPER 30S
ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE JUST HIGH
ENOUGH THAT FROST WILL NOT FORM...EXPECT SOME ISOLATED LOW LYING
AREAS. DID NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY BECAUSE FROST WILL NOT BE
WIDE SPREAD AND IF ANY IT WILL BE PATCHY.

ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MID-
SOUTH AND WILL BRING IN SOME CLOUDS...UNFORTUNATELY THIS MAY BLOCK
THE VIEW OF THE SOLAR ECLIPSE. YET THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ONLY
BRING IN CLOUDS...NO PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL BRING A RETURN
TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATE ON MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES IT TIME MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IT BRINGS
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA...HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES DON/T CHANGE
MUCH AT THE END OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH THAT THIS WILL DEVELOP AS MOST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
THIS BEING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS WEAK IN THE MID-SOUTH.
THUS ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION YET THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT THE MID-SOUTH MAY STAY DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. PUT IN CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TLSJR

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN
WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS
&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KOHX 221858
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
158 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE...ALLOWING FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL NIGHT. BEST FROST
AREAS WILL BE VALLEYS...LOW LYING AND AREAS THAT ARE SHELTERED.
THIS MAY NOT BE A WIDESPREAD FROST EVENT BUT I THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH AROUND TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS TO
PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER EASTERN U.S. WILL PULL FARTHER EAST TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A SOMEWHAT SMALL UPPER RIDGE TO WORK ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL EAT INTO UPPER
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT NO RAIN. A
MUCH STRONGER AND BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
THIS WAY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL WARM TEMPS UP INTO THE 70S
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH 80 POSSIBLE IN NASHVILLE BY MONDAY. NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS CENTRAL
PLAINS UPPER TROUGH ROLLS THIS WAY. EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN GFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      40  65  44  70 /   0   0   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    39  64  43  69 /   0   0   0  10
CROSSVILLE     37  62  41  65 /   0   0   0  10
COLUMBIA       38  65  42  70 /   0   0   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   39  65  44  70 /   0   0   0  10
WAVERLY        38  65  44  70 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KMRX 221835
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
235 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHEAST TN THIS
AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT...BUT THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THESE CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST
VA AND NORTHEAST TN MAY LINGER UNTIL SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. AS
A RESULT...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH FROST FORMATION OVER THESE AREAS
TOWARDS SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU...SOUTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST NC SHOULD HAVE CLEARING SKIES
AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL
LET THE FROST ADVISORY CONTINUE FOR SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHEAST TN
SINCE THERE STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH CLEARING TOWARDS
SUNRISE FOR SOME PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY AS TEMPS RISE BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WILL COMPROMISE
WHERE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE TO START OUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE WEEKEND
WILL BE A DRY PERIOD ALBEIT WITH A FEW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE DRY WEATHER MAY
LAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE
BY MID WEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WITH SOME MOISTURE AND FRONTAL LIFT INDICATED IN THE PROGS. IN
TERMS OF THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...STAYED BETWEEN THE COOLER ECM
AND MILDER MEX MOS NUMBERS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             41  67  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  39  65  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       39  65  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              34  62  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SCOTT TN-SEVIER
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

DMG/




000
FXUS64 KOHX 221805
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
105 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...18Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CATEGORIES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF CYCLE. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN...WINDS SHOULD BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REGION. FOG
REMAINS POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR KCKV AND KCSV EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
DUE TO THE CALM WINDS AND COOLING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. KEPT BOTH
KCKV AND KCSV AT MVFR FOG FOR NOW.

BARNWELL

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KMEG 221725
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1225 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SKIES CLEAR OVER THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WARMING
HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE WARMING WITH THE COLD AIR MASS
IN PLACE. CURRENT TEMPERATURES SEEM ON TRACK AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS CONTINUE.
SO NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING.  TLSJR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SYNOPSIS...
RAIN-FREE AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS OF 3AM...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. 06Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND BACK THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND INTO EASTERN
ARKANSAS. A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A COUPLE OF COOL DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS ARE IN STORE AS A RELATIVELY
COLD AIRMASS PARKS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...AS 925MB VALUES WILL BE
HOVERING AROUND 8-9C OVER A LARGE PORTION OF WEST TENNESSEE AND
NORTH MISSISSIPPI ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. AS A
RESULT...READINGS OVERNIGHT IN THESE AREAS WILL BE IN MID TO UPPER
30S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS WHERE
FROST CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING IS
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL AND MAKE A MENTION IN THE HWO. HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.

BY FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 70S.

LONG TERM...WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A GORGEOUS SEASONABLY WARM WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE ON TAP AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES DOMINANT. CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

BY TUESDAY MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE ECMWF PAINTS A
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER SETUP WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE BEST ENERGY STAYING
MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF OUR FA AND POSSIBLY STALLING OUT. FOR NOW...GOING TO ADVERTISE
THE LESS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN
WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 221725
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1225 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SKIES CLEAR OVER THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WARMING
HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE WARMING WITH THE COLD AIR MASS
IN PLACE. CURRENT TEMPERATURES SEEM ON TRACK AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS CONTINUE.
SO NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING.  TLSJR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SYNOPSIS...
RAIN-FREE AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS OF 3AM...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. 06Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND BACK THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND INTO EASTERN
ARKANSAS. A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A COUPLE OF COOL DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS ARE IN STORE AS A RELATIVELY
COLD AIRMASS PARKS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...AS 925MB VALUES WILL BE
HOVERING AROUND 8-9C OVER A LARGE PORTION OF WEST TENNESSEE AND
NORTH MISSISSIPPI ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. AS A
RESULT...READINGS OVERNIGHT IN THESE AREAS WILL BE IN MID TO UPPER
30S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS WHERE
FROST CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING IS
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL AND MAKE A MENTION IN THE HWO. HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.

BY FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 70S.

LONG TERM...WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A GORGEOUS SEASONABLY WARM WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE ON TAP AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES DOMINANT. CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

BY TUESDAY MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE ECMWF PAINTS A
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER SETUP WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE BEST ENERGY STAYING
MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF OUR FA AND POSSIBLY STALLING OUT. FOR NOW...GOING TO ADVERTISE
THE LESS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN
WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 221458
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
958 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES CLEAR OVER THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WARMING
HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE WARMING WITH THE COLD AIR MASS
IN PLACE. CURRENT TEMPERATURES SEEM ON TRACK AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS CONTINUE.
SO NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING.  TLJR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SYNOPSIS...
RAIN-FREE AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS OF 3AM...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. 06Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND BACK THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND INTO EASTERN
ARKANSAS. A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A COUPLE OF COOL DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS ARE IN STORE AS A RELATIVELY
COLD AIRMASS PARKS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...AS 925MB VALUES WILL BE
HOVERING AROUND 8-9C OVER A LARGE PORTION OF WEST TENNESSEE AND
NORTH MISSISSIPPI ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. AS A
RESULT...READINGS OVERNIGHT IN THESE AREAS WILL BE IN MID TO UPPER
30S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS WHERE
FROST CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING IS
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL AND MAKE A MENTION IN THE HWO. HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.

BY FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 70S.

LONG TERM...WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A GORGEOUS SEASONABLY WARM WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE ON TAP AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES DOMINANT. CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

BY TUESDAY MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE ECMWF PAINTS A
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER SETUP WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE BEST ENERGY STAYING
MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF OUR FA AND POSSIBLY STALLING OUT. FOR NOW...GOING TO ADVERTISE
THE LESS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

SOME MINOR VISBY REDUCTIONS ARE OCCURRING AT MKL THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER THESE SHOULD BE INTERMITTENT. ANY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY 14Z THIS MORNING AS MIXING BEGINS AFTER SUNUP. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE VALID
PERIOD...INCLUDING MKL AFTER 14Z.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 221448
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
948 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
STILL HAVE BROKEN LOW DECK ALONG UPPER CUMBERLAND THAT IS TRYING TO
SCATTER OUT BUT TAKING ITS TIME. THIS DECK ON BACK SIDE OF CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN U.S. WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE BEING A COOL FETCH FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE AM EXPECTING
HIGHS TODAY UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND TO
MIDDLE 60S ELSEWHERE. AM CONSIDERING A FROST ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT
FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE BUT WANT TO GET A LOOK AT SOME NEW
MODEL DATA BEFORE MAKING THE FINAL DECISION. LOOKS LIKE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL NIGHT. WILL
TRY AND DECIDE BEFORE NOON TODAY AND GET PRODUCT OUT BY THEN OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KMRX 221431
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1031 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BUILDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS SPREADING OVER SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHEAST
TN THIS MORNING...WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY
DRIFT EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TOWARDS SUNSET.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...BUT
WILL PLAN TO UPDATE THIS MORNING TO MENTION DECREASING CLOUDINESS
OVER SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHEAST TN.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             65  40  69  42 /   0   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  61  38  65  40 /   0   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       61  38  66  40 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              54  35  61  34 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SCOTT TN-SEVIER
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

DMG




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities