[top]
000
FXUS64 KMRX 190712
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
312 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH
CALM WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AND EVEN SOME
LOW STATUS NEAR AREA RIVERS AND LAKES. THIS FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH
DAYBREAK BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 12-13Z OR SO. A SURFACE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER THAN TUESDAY GIVEN THE CLEARER CONDITIONS...REACHING
THE LOW TO MID 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME AREAS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN ZONES CREEPING INTO THE UPPER 80S. HOWEVER...DID TWEAK
TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR SO GIVEN THE PREVAILING NORTHEAST
FLOW THAT SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. AN ISOLATED STORM
MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY...BUT THINK
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREVALENT IN MOST SPOTS. THERE MAY BE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT...BUT
DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST ATTM.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DID NOT SEE MUCH OPPORTUNITY TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE ON PREVIOUS
FORECAST GRIDS. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE
EXITING TROUGH TODAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL THE UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS OUT A BIT BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE STAYS
CENTERED GENERALLY TO OUR NORTH OR NORTHEAST UNTIL AT LEAST LATE
SUNDAY...THEN SLIDES OFF TO THE E TO SE...AND MAY ALLOW A WEAK
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DOES NOT SUPPORT MORE THAN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WAS
ALREADY DEPICTED IN OUR FORECAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SO I NUDGED POPS UP
TO LOW CHANCE IN MOST AREAS FOR MONDAY. THIS WAS ALSO THE TREND FROM
18/12Z GFSX TO 19/00Z GFSX MOS POPS. NO CHANGES MADE FOR TUESDAY
WITH CHANCE POPS DAYTIME AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NIGHTTIME SUFFICIENT
FOR NOW.
FOR TEMPS...GFS AND GFSX MOS TEMPS GENERALLY FOLLOWED...EXCEPT FOR
STAYING MOSTLY BELOW THE 90S FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...GIVEN THE FALLING
HEIGHTS AND INCREASING MOISTURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 87 64 89 67 89 / 10 10 20 10 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 85 63 87 66 88 / 10 10 20 10 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 84 62 88 65 88 / 10 10 20 10 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 81 57 84 58 86 / 10 10 20 10 20
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
AMP/TG
000
FXUS64 KMRX 190511 AAC
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
111 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.AVIATION...
VIS/CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY LOWER LATE TONIGHT AS FOG
FORMATION WILL OCCUR AT EACH TERMINAL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KTYS...WHILE
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS SEEM FAIRLY LIKELY AT KTRI AFTER
08Z. ANY FOG FORMATION WILL LIFT AFTER SUNRISE...RESULTING IN A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
AMP
[top]
000
FXUS64 KMEG 190446
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1146 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. WAS INITIALLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE
CONVECTION IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI MOVING INTO THE MIDSOUTH
TONIGHT...BUT IT HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED. THEREFORE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES REQUIRED. IT SHOULD BE A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING...BUT SHOULD NOT BE PARTICULARLY
DENSE. MORNING LOWS WHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS. SKIES ARE CLEARING
OUT AS DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...FILTERS IN ON LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S WHERE CLOUDS HAVE
HUNG ON THE LONGEST TO THE MID 80S IN JONESBORO.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LEAVING THE MIDSOUTH IN
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
NORTHEAST GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S IN MEMPHIS. EXPECT THE WEATHER TO BE RAIN FREE
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT.
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MISSOURI INTO THE MIDSOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD
THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY OCCURRING JUST NORTH
OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING AND IT
WILL BE MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS IT HEADS
SOUTH.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN FREE AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE MID 60S. BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO AROUND 70.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLD AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN-
TUE.
SJM
AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY BETWEEN
19/08-12Z PRODUCING TEMPORARY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A
WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AS OF 04Z AND MAY AFFECT MKL BETWEEN
19/07-09Z...AND PERHAPS MEM BETWEEN 19/08-10Z. SOME UNCERTAINTY
STILL REMAINS WITH THE LONGEVITY OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO NORTHEAST/EAST
WINDS BETWEEN 4-7 KTS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BECOME LIGHT/NEARLY
CALM BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
CJC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 70 91 71 92 / 10 10 10 10
MKL 64 89 65 90 / 10 10 10 10
JBR 66 90 68 91 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 68 91 67 92 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS64 KOHX 190440
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1140 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION NEAR PAH MOVING SOUTHWARD AND NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT ANY AIRPORTS OVERNIGHT. CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL LEAD TO PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG AT ALL TERMINALS TOWARDS
SUNRISE. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 13-14Z WITH SCT CUMULUS AND LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 811 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
UPDATE...
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH WESTERN KY AT THIS TIME. THE ACTIVITY IS STILL SEVERAL
COUNTIES NORTH OF THE TN/KY LINE BUT IS MOVING SOUTH. LATEST LAPS
DATA SHOWING THAT CAPES DROP FROM 1400 J/KG VCNTY OF STORMS
NOW...TO NEAR 600 J/KG ALONG THE TN/KY LINE. 850 MB FLOW IS
GENERALLY NORTHERLY WHICH DOES NOT USUALLY CONDONE NOCTURNAL
CONVECTIVE SUPPORT. FURTHERMORE...UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS LOOKING
MINIMAL. HRRR OF LITTLE SUPPORT AND ONLY GOES OUT TO 03Z FOR NOW.
WILL OPT TO MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE FCST AND KEEP THE 20 POPS
GOING. WILL REMOVE THOSE POPS IF AND WHEN THE CONVECTION TO THE
NORTH COMPLETELY DIES OUT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
AVIATION...
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THIS EVENING. DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN
IN WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
WEAKEN BUT AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO COULD FLIRT WITH CROSSING THE
TN/KY BORDER LATE TONIGHT. OTW...SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD
12Z. ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED FOR YOUR
WEDNESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION NOW WELL SOUTH OF MID
STATE WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AT
MID-AFTERNOON. RATHER SHARP SHORT WAVE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL WORK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS ACROSS INDIANA INTO OHIO.
ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE SOME CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THAT
BOUNDARY. SURFACE BOUNDARY PROGGED TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING
PRECEDING BY CONVECTION. FRONT WILL BE UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS BY
THE TIME IT GETS THIS FAR SOUTH. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE
WEAKENING I DONT FEEL CONFORTABLE NOT HAVING AT LEAST A MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING PERIOD. THERE
STILL COULD BE ISOLATED THUNDER ON THE UPPER CUMBERLAND FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO...AM EXPECTING LATE NIGHT PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST
THAT COULD DEVELOP ISOLATED THUNDER ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL TURN OUT QUITE SUMMER-LIKE...
RIGHT ON CUE WITH THE SUMMER SOLSTICE WHICH OCCURS FRIDAY JUNE
21ST AT 12:04 AM CDT. PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH MID STATE REMAINING IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS MEANS A
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE PRETTY MUCH EACH DAY.
BOYD
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 190210
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
910 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. WAS INITIALLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE
CONVECTION IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI MOVING INTO THE MIDSOUTH
TONIGHT...BUT IT HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED. THEREFORE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES REQUIRED. IT SHOULD BE A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING...BUT SHOULD NOT BE PARTICULARLY
DENSE. MORNING LOWS WHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS. SKIES ARE CLEARING
OUT AS DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...FILTERS IN ON LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S WHERE CLOUDS HAVE
HUNG ON THE LONGEST TO THE MID 80S IN JONESBORO.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LEAVING THE MIDSOUTH IN
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
NORTHEAST GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S IN MEMPHIS. EXPECT THE WEATHER TO BE RAIN FREE
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT.
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MISSOURI INTO THE MIDSOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD
THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY OCCURRING JUST NORTH
OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING AND IT
WILL BE MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS IT HEADS
SOUTH.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN FREE AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE MID 60S. BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO AROUND 70.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLD AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN-
TUE.
SJM
AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 19/08-12Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO DROP
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY MENTION IN TAFS
AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...WILL CONSIDER AMENDMENTS TO INCLUDE IF
SHORT TERM TRENDS SUGGEST A BETTER POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO
NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS BETWEEN 4-7 KTS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 70 91 71 92 / 10 10 10 10
MKL 64 89 65 90 / 10 10 10 10
JBR 66 90 68 91 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 68 91 67 92 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 190207 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1007 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION NEAR THE GULF COAST WILL BE SPREADING
OVER THE AREA. WITH A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP...BUT THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF PATCHY
FOG SEEMS ON TRACK. SHOWERS ARE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS E KY...AND IF
THEY CAN HOLD TOGETHER...WILL REACH OUR AREA AROUND 05Z. WILL
UPDATE TO BRING SOME POPS INTO NORTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
000
FXUS64 KOHX 190111
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
811 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH WESTERN KY AT THIS TIME. THE ACTIVITY IS STILL SEVERAL
COUNTIES NORTH OF THE TN/KY LINE BUT IS MOVING SOUTH. LATEST LAPS
DATA SHOWING THAT CAPES DROP FROM 1400 J/KG VCNTY OF STORMS
NOW...TO NEAR 600 J/KG ALONG THE TN/KY LINE. 850 MB FLOW IS
GENERALLY NORTHERLY WHICH DOES NOT USUALLY CONDONE NOCTURNAL
CONVECTIVE SUPPORT. FURTHERMORE...UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS LOOKING
MINIMAL. HRRR OF LITTLE SUPPORT AND ONLY GOES OUT TO 03Z FOR NOW.
WILL OPT TO MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE FCST AND KEEP THE 20 POPS
GOING. WILL REMOVE THOSE POPS IF AND WHEN THE CONVECTION TO THE
NORTH COMPLETELY DIES OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
AVIATION...
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THIS EVENING. DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN
IN WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
WEAKEN BUT AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO COULD FLIRT WITH CROSSING THE
TN/KY BORDER LATE TONIGHT. OTW...SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD
12Z. ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED FOR YOUR
WEDNESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION NOW WELL SOUTH OF MID
STATE WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AT
MID-AFTERNOON. RATHER SHARP SHORT WAVE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL WORK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS ACROSS INDIANA INTO OHIO.
ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE SOME CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THAT
BOUNDARY. SURFACE BOUNDARY PROGGED TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING
PRECEDING BY CONVECTION. FRONT WILL BE UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS BY
THE TIME IT GETS THIS FAR SOUTH. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE
WEAKENING I DONT FEEL CONFORTABLE NOT HAVING AT LEAST A MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING PERIOD. THERE
STILL COULD BE ISOLATED THUNDER ON THE UPPER CUMBERLAND FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO...AM EXPECTING LATE NIGHT PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST
THAT COULD DEVELOP ISOLATED THUNDER ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL TURN OUT QUITE SUMMER-LIKE...
RIGHT ON CUE WITH THE SUMMER SOLSTICE WHICH OCCURS FRIDAY JUNE
21ST AT 12:04 AM CDT. PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH MID STATE REMAINING IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS MEANS A
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE PRETTY MUCH EACH DAY.
BOYD
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
000
FXUS64 KMEG 182338
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
638 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS. SKIES ARE CLEARING
OUT AS DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...FILTERS IN ON LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S WHERE CLOUDS HAVE
HUNG ON THE LONGEST TO THE MID 80S IN JONESBORO.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LEAVING THE MIDSOUTH IN
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
NORTHEAST GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S IN MEMPHIS. EXPECT THE WEATHER TO BE RAIN FREE
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT.
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MISSOURI INTO THE MIDSOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD
THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY OCCURRING JUST NORTH
OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING AND IT
WILL BE MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS IT HEADS
SOUTH.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN FREE AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE MID 60S. BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO AROUND 70.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLD AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN-
TUE.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 19/08-12Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO DROP
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY MENTION IN TAFS
AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...WILL CONSIDER AMENDMENTS TO INCLUDE IF
SHORT TERM TRENDS SUGGEST A BETTER POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO
NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS BETWEEN 4-7 KTS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CJC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 70 91 71 92 / 10 10 10 10
MKL 64 89 65 90 / 10 10 10 10
JBR 66 90 68 91 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 68 91 67 92 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 182322
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
622 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.AVIATION...
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THIS EVENING. DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN
IN WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
WEAKEN BUT AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO COULD FLIRT WITH CROSSING THE
TN/KY BORDER LATE TONIGHT. OTW...SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD
12Z. ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED FOR YOUR
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION NOW WELL SOUTH OF MID
STATE WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AT
MID-AFTERNOON. RATHER SHARP SHORT WAVE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL WORK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS ACROSS INDIANA INTO OHIO.
ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE SOME CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THAT
BOUNDARY. SURFACE BOUNDARY PROGGED TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING
PRECEDING BY CONVECTION. FRONT WILL BE UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS BY
THE TIME IT GETS THIS FAR SOUTH. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE
WEAKENING I DONT FEEL CONFORTABLE NOT HAVING AT LEAST A MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING PERIOD. THERE
STILL COULD BE ISOLATED THUNDER ON THE UPPER CUMBERLAND FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO...AM EXPECTING LATE NIGHT PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST
THAT COULD DEVELOP ISOLATED THUNDER ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL TURN OUT QUITE SUMMER-LIKE...
RIGHT ON CUE WITH THE SUMMER SOLSTICE WHICH OCCURS FRIDAY JUNE
21ST AT 12:04 AM CDT. PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH MID STATE REMAINING IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS MEANS A
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE PRETTY MUCH EACH DAY.
BOYD
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
000
FXUS64 KMRX 182312 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
712 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.AVIATION...
WITH CALM WINDS...CLEARING SKIES...AND EARLIER RAINFALL...THE
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOG. CONFIDENCE OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS HIGHEST AT TRI...WHERE MVFR VIS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN LOWER TO 1/4 SM VIS FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT TYS AND CHA. WILL HAVE
PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH SITES...WITH A TEMPO FOR IFR AT
TYS WHERE MORE RAIN FELL THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
000
FXUS64 KMEG 182039
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
339 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS. SKIES ARE CLEARING
OUT AS DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...FILTERS IN ON LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S WHERE CLOUDS HAVE
HUNG ON THE LONGEST TO THE MID 80S IN JONESBORO.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LEAVING THE MIDSOUTH IN
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
NORTHEAST GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S IN MEMPHIS. EXPECT THE WEATHER TO BE RAIN FREE
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT.
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MISSOURI INTO THE MIDSOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD
THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY OCCURRING JUST NORTH
OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING AND IT
WILL BE MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS IT HEADS
SOUTH.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN FREE AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE MID 60S. BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO AROUND 70.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLD AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN-
TUE.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
CURRENT MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMEM AND KMKL SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
LEVELS BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT KJBR AND
KTUP. A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
WHICH MAY PRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
ARS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 70 91 71 92 / 10 10 10 10
MKL 64 89 65 90 / 10 10 10 10
JBR 66 90 68 91 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 68 91 67 92 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 181928
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
228 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION NOW WELL SOUTH OF MID
STATE WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AT
MID-AFTERNOON. RATHER SHARP SHORT WAVE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL WORK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS ACROSS INDIANA INTO OHIO.
ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE SOME CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THAT
BOUNDARY. SURFACE BOUNDARY PROGGED TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING
PRECEDING BY CONVECTION. FRONT WILL BE UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS BY
THE TIME IT GETS THIS FAR SOUTH. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE
WEAKENING I DONT FEEL CONFORTABLE NOT HAVING AT LEAST A MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING PERIOD. THERE
STILL COULD BE ISOLATED THUNDER ON THE UPPER CUMBERLAND FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO...AM EXPECTING LATE NIGHT PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST
THAT COULD DEVELOP ISOLATED THUNDER ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL TURN OUT QUITE SUMMER-LIKE...
RIGHT ON CUE WITH THE SUMMER SOLSTICE WHICH OCCURS FRIDAY JUNE
21ST AT 12:04 AM CDT. PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH MID STATE REMAINING IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS MEANS A
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE PRETTY MUCH EACH DAY.
BOYD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 67 88 66 90 / 20 10 10 20
CLARKSVILLE 65 87 63 89 / 20 10 10 10
CROSSVILLE 60 81 61 84 / 20 10 10 20
COLUMBIA 66 89 66 91 / 20 10 10 20
LAWRENCEBURG 65 90 65 91 / 20 10 10 20
WAVERLY 65 88 64 90 / 20 10 10 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
BOYD
01
000
FXUS64 KMRX 181844
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
244 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...MUCH QUIETER AS WEATHER
SYSTEM COMES TO AN END. WILL CARRY SLGT CHC / CHC POPS OVER THE
EAST ONLY THIS EVENING...THEN INTRODUCE SLGT CHC POPS OVER THE
PLATEAU AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SECONDARY FRONT COMES INTO THE PICTURE.
SLGT CHC POPS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS SW VA INTO WEDNESDAY...AND
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IS POSSIBLE THOUGH
MORE LIKELY ON THE NC SIDE. AFTER SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG BURNS
OFF...EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MORE SUN FOR WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION EARLY ON AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEFORE BEGINNING TO FLATTEN OUT LATE. WITH
WEAK FLOW AND NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA
SHOULD SEE FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY. GFS MOS
TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL MAKE ONLY SOME MINOR
TWEAKS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 65 88 64 89 67 / 20 10 10 20 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 62 86 63 87 66 / 20 10 10 20 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 62 86 62 88 65 / 10 10 10 20 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 58 82 57 84 60 / 20 10 10 20 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
GC/LW
000
FXUS64 KOHX 181820
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
120 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY PULLING OFF SOUTH END OF PLATEAU AND
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN EVIDENT IN
LATEST VISIBLE LOOP OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE MID STATE.
HAVE TRIM AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK A TAD BUT WHERE SUN GETS OUT
SHOULD GET INTO THE LOWER 80S.
THERE IS ANOTHER FRONT TO OUR NORTH ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. WILL PROBABLY RUN
ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
FROM THIS FRONT AS IT IS UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS BY THE TIME IT GETS
DOWN THIS WAY.
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 102 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UNCERTAINTIES...MVFR CEILING EROSIONS PROGRESSION TIMING AND CSV/FOG
POTENTIAL 19/06Z-19/14Z. OVERALL ATM DRYING TREND TO CONTINUE THRU 19/00Z...
ERROSION CEILING TIMING 19/22Z CSV EXPECTED. NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
POSSIBLY BRING A WEAK DISTURBANCE ACROSS TAF SITES 19/06Z-19/14Z...SO
DO EXPECT PER CALM WINDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR FOG...POSSIBLE IFR FOG CSV. HOWEVER...NOT A MAX RADITIONAL POTENTIAL
EVENT SO WILL NOT GO LIFR/VLIFR...BUT COULD BE LOCALLY POSSIBLE THOUGH WITH
BREAKS. EXPECT DRIER NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH BUILDING SFC RIDGING
INFLUENCES TO PROVIDE FOR VFR CONDITIONS BY 19/14Z-19/15Z...WITH WEAK SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM N AIDING IN CU DEVELOPMENT BY 19/16Z.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1019 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS/ZONES TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING. 850 MBAR WINDS HAVE TURNED
NORTHERLY OVER THE WEST HALF OF TENNESSEE WITH DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THE MID STATE DURING THE DAY. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DECREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY. LATEST NAM KEEPS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER OVER SOUTHEAST MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT DRY
OVER A GOOD PART OF THE MID STATE. THERE IS CURRENTLY A COOL FRONT
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE MID WEST FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO CENTRAL OHIO. THIS FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH BOUND TONIGHT BUT APPEARS
TO UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS AT IT GETS DOWN INTO MY CWA. WILL TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT TONIGHTS FORECAST A LITTLE LATER.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
STILL SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT ISSUANCE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS MORNING`S MCV THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE STATE. IFR
TO MVFR CIGS AND VIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 14-15Z AT ALL SITES
BEFORE FLIGHT CATEGORIES BEGIN TO IMPROVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
TYPICAL TRAILING STRATUS DECK IS LACKING...SO SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED TO GO SKC AT ALL SITES BY 18Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE NORTH. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING...CLEAR SKIES AND
SATURATED GROUNDS...OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE AT KCSV AS EARLY
AS 05Z/19 JUN.
27/UNGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELED THE FFA WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED AND LATEST
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS JUST SCT ACTIVITY FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. REST OF FORECAST IS UNCHANGED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED UPPER SYS MOVING ACRS WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. WARM RAIN PROCESS ONGOING
WITH IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER BANDS -
RANGING AROUND 0.5 IN/HR AT MANY SPOTS TO A MAX OF 1.3 INCH IN ONE
HOUR EARLIER AT MCEWEN. FORTUNATELY HVY RAINS HAVE NOT PERSISTED
OVER ANY ONE SPOT KEEPING OUR FLOOD RISK LOW. WILL HOLD ONTO THE
FFA FOR NOW FOR THE AREAS WHICH SAW THE HEAVIEST RAINS YDAY BUT
WILL CONSIDER CANCELING BASED ON TRENDS THRU SHIFT CHANGE.
OTHERWISE POPS ARE TRICKY TODAY AS CVRG WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE AS UPPER LOW SHEARS EAST BUT SOME
REDEVELOPMENT STILL PSBL. WILL HANDLE WITH AN ERLY CATEGORICAL
PERIOD TAPERING FROM THE NW AS THE DAY GOES ON. MAV TEMPS LOOK
RSNBL AS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM UP AS PRECIP CVRG DECREASES AND
SOME SUNSHINE DVLPS.
EXPECT LINGERING PCPN OVER OUR SE TO END TNGT THEN WITH A VERY
MOIST ATMOS/LIGHT WINDS XPCT TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG. AGAIN THE MAV
TEMPERATURES LOOK RSNBL.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHGS MADE TO THE EXTENDED AS WE ENTER WHAT LOOKS
LIKE A PRETTY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO
MOISTEN ENUF BY THE END OF THE WEEK FOR SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LEANED TWRD THE WARMER
MEX TEMPS VS THE COOLER HPC VALUES.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
000
FXUS64 KOHX 181802 AAD
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
102 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UNCERTAINTIES...MVFR CEILING EROSIONS PROGRESSION TIMING AND CSV/FOG
POTENTIAL 19/06Z-19/14Z. OVERALL ATM DRYING TREND TO CONTINUE THRU 19/00Z...
ERROSION CEILING TIMING 19/22Z CSV EXPECTED. NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
POSSIBLY BRING A WEAK DISTURBANCE ACROSS TAF SITES 19/06Z-19/14Z...SO
DO EXPECT PER CALM WINDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR FOG...POSSIBLE IFR FOG CSV. HOWEVER...NOT A MAX RADITIONAL POTENTIAL
EVENT SO WILL NOT GO LIFR/VLIFR...BUT COULD BE LOCALLY POSSIBLE THOUGH WITH
BREAKS. EXPECT DRIER NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH BUILDING SFC RIDGING
INFLUENCES TO PROVIDE FOR VFR CONDITIONS BY 19/14Z-19/15Z...WITH WEAK SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM N AIDING IN CU DEVELOPMENT BY 19/16Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1019 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS/ZONES TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING. 850 MBAR WINDS HAVE TURNED
NORTHERLY OVER THE WEST HALF OF TENNESSEE WITH DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THE MID STATE DURING THE DAY. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DECREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY. LATEST NAM KEEPS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER OVER SOUTHEAST MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT DRY
OVER A GOOD PART OF THE MID STATE. THERE IS CURRENTLY A COOL FRONT
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE MID WEST FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO CENTRAL OHIO. THIS FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH BOUND TONIGHT BUT APPEARS
TO UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS AT IT GETS DOWN INTO MY CWA. WILL TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT TONIGHTS FORECAST A LITTLE LATER.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
STILL SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT ISSUANCE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS MORNING`S MCV THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE STATE. IFR
TO MVFR CIGS AND VIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 14-15Z AT ALL SITES
BEFORE FLIGHT CATEGORIES BEGIN TO IMPROVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
TYPICAL TRAILING STRATUS DECK IS LACKING...SO SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED TO GO SKC AT ALL SITES BY 18Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE NORTH. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING...CLEAR SKIES AND
SATURATED GROUNDS...OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE AT KCSV AS EARLY
AS 05Z/19 JUN.
27/UNGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELED THE FFA WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED AND LATEST
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS JUST SCT ACTIVITY FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. REST OF FORECAST IS UNCHANGED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED UPPER SYS MOVING ACRS WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. WARM RAIN PROCESS ONGOING
WITH IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER BANDS -
RANGING AROUND 0.5 IN/HR AT MANY SPOTS TO A MAX OF 1.3 INCH IN ONE
HOUR EARLIER AT MCEWEN. FORTUNATELY HVY RAINS HAVE NOT PERSISTED
OVER ANY ONE SPOT KEEPING OUR FLOOD RISK LOW. WILL HOLD ONTO THE
FFA FOR NOW FOR THE AREAS WHICH SAW THE HEAVIEST RAINS YDAY BUT
WILL CONSIDER CANCELING BASED ON TRENDS THRU SHIFT CHANGE.
OTHERWISE POPS ARE TRICKY TODAY AS CVRG WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE AS UPPER LOW SHEARS EAST BUT SOME
REDEVELOPMENT STILL PSBL. WILL HANDLE WITH AN ERLY CATEGORICAL
PERIOD TAPERING FROM THE NW AS THE DAY GOES ON. MAV TEMPS LOOK
RSNBL AS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM UP AS PRECIP CVRG DECREASES AND
SOME SUNSHINE DVLPS.
EXPECT LINGERING PCPN OVER OUR SE TO END TNGT THEN WITH A VERY
MOIST ATMOS/LIGHT WINDS XPCT TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG. AGAIN THE MAV
TEMPERATURES LOOK RSNBL.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHGS MADE TO THE EXTENDED AS WE ENTER WHAT LOOKS
LIKE A PRETTY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO
MOISTEN ENUF BY THE END OF THE WEEK FOR SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LEANED TWRD THE WARMER
MEX TEMPS VS THE COOLER HPC VALUES.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
000
FXUS64 KMEG 181736
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1236 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION AND A
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MID
SOUTH. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
INVOF THE FRONT WITH POST FRONTAL CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ACROSS NW MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
AND SW TENNESSEE. SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE BOOTHEEL AND NW TENNESSEE. CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS CLEARING WORKS SOUTH AND PRECIP CHANCES
DIMINISH. BEST CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AROUND NE MISSISSIPPI INVOF
THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST UP NORTH WHERE THE SUN IS OUT
WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING INTO THE LOW 80S WHERE THE CLOUDS HANG IN.
UPDATED POPS AND TEMPS. FORECAST ALREADY OUT.
SJM
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REDUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FASTER THAN
EXPECTED. HAVE REDUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACCORDING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
JAB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. A SUBTLE COLD FRONT WAS INDICATED IN THE OBS NEAR
I-40 AND HAS ONLY BEEN INCHING SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES IN THE RAIN
COOLED AIRMASS OVER THE AREA RANGED FROM THE MID 60S NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...TO THE MID 70S SOUTH.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
PRECIPITATION FOCUS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WITH YESTERDAY`S HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS NOT
ANTICIPATED. FARTHER NORTH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CAN`T BE
RULED OUT...BUT IF IT OCCURS WOULD LIKELY BE BEFORE 18Z. TONIGHT
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AT ALL LEVELS AS THE CURRENT
WEAK DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD SWINGS TO THE EAST COAST. PARTIAL
CLEARING SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER
THE OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE NEARLY
A RAIN-FREE PERIOD FOR THE MIDSOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES DON`T
APPEAR TO GET OVERLY HIGH...MAINTAINING AN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE
OF 16-17C OVER THE AREA. THIS TRANSLATED DOWNWARD CREATES SEASONAL
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOW 90S. COUPLED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO BE COMFORTABLE.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXTENDED MODELS EXPAND THE UPPER RIDGE
EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL SWING THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW THE RETURN TO 70+ DEWPOINTS.
COUPLED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...HEAT
INDICES WILL BEGIN TO CREST 100F. RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR
MINIMAL...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IN FUTURE FORECASTS DEPENDING
WHERE THE HIGH CENTER/WEAKNESSES SET UP.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
CURRENT MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMEM AND KMKL SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
LEVELS BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT KJBR AND
KTUP. A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
WHICH MAY PRDUCE MVFR VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
ARS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 83 70 90 71 / 20 10 10 10
MKL 82 65 88 65 / 20 10 10 10
JBR 86 67 89 68 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 83 68 90 68 / 50 30 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 181730
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
130 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.AVIATION...
THE BULK OF THE WEATHER EVENT WILL BE ENDING BEFORE 00Z. PRESENT
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IMPROVING TO IFR BY 00Z. DEVELOPMENT
OF BR MAY OCCUR AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS THIN...RESULTING
IN AT LEAST TEMPO MVFR VSBYS BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z. FRONT HAS
PRODUCED WIND SHIFT AT TRI...WILL SEE WIND SHIFT TO MORE NW TO N
DIRECTION AT TYS AND CHA AFTER 18Z TODAY.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
GC
000
FXUS64 KMEG 181538
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1038 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION AND A
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MID
SOUTH. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
INVOF THE FRONT WITH POST FRONTAL CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ACROSS NW MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
AND SW TENNESSEE. SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE BOOTHEEL AND NW TENNESSEE. CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS CLEARING WORKS SOUTH AND PRECIP CHANCES
DIMINISH. BEST CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AROUND NE MISSISSIPPI INVOF
THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST UP NORTH WHERE THE SUN IS OUT
WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING INTO THE LOW 80S WHERE THE CLOUDS HANG IN.
UPDATED POPS AND TEMPS. FORECAST ALREADY OUT.
SJM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REDUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FASTER THAN
EXPECTED. HAVE REDUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACCORDING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
JAB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. A SUBTLE COLD FRONT WAS INDICATED IN THE OBS NEAR
I-40 AND HAS ONLY BEEN INCHING SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES IN THE RAIN
COOLED AIRMASS OVER THE AREA RANGED FROM THE MID 60S NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...TO THE MID 70S SOUTH.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
PRECIPITATION FOCUS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WITH YESTERDAY`S HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS NOT
ANTICIPATED. FARTHER NORTH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CAN`T BE
RULED OUT...BUT IF IT OCCURS WOULD LIKELY BE BEFORE 18Z. TONIGHT
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AT ALL LEVELS AS THE CURRENT
WEAK DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD SWINGS TO THE EAST COAST. PARTIAL
CLEARING SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER
THE OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE NEARLY
A RAIN-FREE PERIOD FOR THE MIDSOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES DON`T
APPEAR TO GET OVERLY HIGH...MAINTAINING AN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE
OF 16-17C OVER THE AREA. THIS TRANSLATED DOWNWARD CREATES SEASONAL
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOW 90S. COUPLED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO BE COMFORTABLE.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXTENDED MODELS EXPAND THE UPPER RIDGE
EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL SWING THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW THE RETURN TO 70+ DEWPOINTS.
COUPLED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...HEAT
INDICES WILL BEGIN TO CREST 100F. RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR
MINIMAL...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IN FUTURE FORECASTS DEPENDING
WHERE THE HIGH CENTER/WEAKNESSES SET UP.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
A MIX OF CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING AT ALL TAF
SITES RANGING FROM LIFR TO MVFR. LOWEST CIGS REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STRETCHED JUST SOUTH OF THE
I-40 CORRIDOR AS OF 12Z. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AT ALL
SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MOST SITES IMPROVING TO VFR BY
THIS TIME. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...EXPECTING A REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT KTUP. ELSEWHERE...DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD ADVECT IN
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT KTUP THIS MORNING...AND
NORTHERLY AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT. KTUP
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY COME AROUND NORTHERLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY THIS EVENING WITH VFR CIGS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST SOME MVFR
VSBYS IN FOG AND POTENTIALLY LOWER. HAVE PRECLUDED LOWER VSBYS AT
THIS TIME AS CONFIDENCE STILL NOT TOO HIGH THAT DEWPOINTS WILL
LOWER MUCH MORE THAN THE MID 60S WHICH COMBINED WITH A WET GROUND
SHOULD RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. JUST NOT SURE AT THIS POINT HOW
DENSE FOG WILL BE...BUT LOWER VSBYS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
JLH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 83 70 90 71 / 20 10 10 10
MKL 82 65 88 65 / 20 10 10 10
JBR 86 67 89 68 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 83 68 90 68 / 50 30 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
SJM
000
FXUS64 KOHX 181519
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1019 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS/ZONES TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING. 850 MBAR WINDS HAVE TURNED
NORTHERLY OVER THE WEST HALF OF TENNESSEE WITH DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THE MID STATE DURING THE DAY. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DECREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY. LATEST NAM KEEPS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER OVER SOUTHEAST MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT DRY
OVER A GOOD PART OF THE MID STATE. THERE IS CURRENTLY A COOL FRONT
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE MID WEST FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO CENTRAL OHIO. THIS FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH BOUND TONIGHT BUT APPEARS
TO UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS AT IT GETS DOWN INTO MY CWA. WILL TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT TONIGHTS FORECAST A LITTLE LATER.
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
STILL SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT ISSUANCE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS MORNING`S MCV THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE STATE. IFR
TO MVFR CIGS AND VIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 14-15Z AT ALL SITES
BEFORE FLIGHT CATEGORIES BEGIN TO IMPROVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
TYPICAL TRAILING STRATUS DECK IS LACKING...SO SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED TO GO SKC AT ALL SITES BY 18Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE NORTH. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING...CLEAR SKIES AND
SATURATED GROUNDS...OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE AT KCSV AS EARLY
AS 05Z/19 JUN.
27/UNGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELED THE FFA WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED AND LATEST
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS JUST SCT ACTIVITY FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. REST OF FORECAST IS UNCHANGED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED UPPER SYS MOVING ACRS WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. WARM RAIN PROCESS ONGOING
WITH IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER BANDS -
RANGING AROUND 0.5 IN/HR AT MANY SPOTS TO A MAX OF 1.3 INCH IN ONE
HOUR EARLIER AT MCEWEN. FORTUNATELY HVY RAINS HAVE NOT PERSISTED
OVER ANY ONE SPOT KEEPING OUR FLOOD RISK LOW. WILL HOLD ONTO THE
FFA FOR NOW FOR THE AREAS WHICH SAW THE HEAVIEST RAINS YDAY BUT
WILL CONSIDER CANCELING BASED ON TRENDS THRU SHIFT CHANGE.
OTHERWISE POPS ARE TRICKY TODAY AS CVRG WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE AS UPPER LOW SHEARS EAST BUT SOME
REDEVELOPMENT STILL PSBL. WILL HANDLE WITH AN ERLY CATEGORICAL
PERIOD TAPERING FROM THE NW AS THE DAY GOES ON. MAV TEMPS LOOK
RSNBL AS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM UP AS PRECIP CVRG DECREASES AND
SOME SUNSHINE DVLPS.
EXPECT LINGERING PCPN OVER OUR SE TO END TNGT THEN WITH A VERY
MOIST ATMOS/LIGHT WINDS XPCT TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG. AGAIN THE MAV
TEMPERATURES LOOK RSNBL.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHGS MADE TO THE EXTENDED AS WE ENTER WHAT LOOKS
LIKE A PRETTY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO
MOISTEN ENUF BY THE END OF THE WEEK FOR SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LEANED TWRD THE WARMER
MEX TEMPS VS THE COOLER HPC VALUES.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
000
FXUS64 KMRX 181503
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1103 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
TOUCHED UP GRIDS AND ZONES TO KEEP THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WORDING CONFINED ONLY TO THE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS TO MUCH OF SW
VIRGINIA /WHERE THE COMMA HEAD OF THE LOW MAY LET THE PRECIP
LINGER/. ADJUSTED QPF ACCORDINGLY FOR TODAY.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
GC
000
FXUS64 KMEG 181214
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
714 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REDUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FASTER THAN
EXPECTED. HAVE REDUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACCORDING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
JAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. A SUBTLE COLD FRONT WAS INDICATED IN THE OBS NEAR
I-40 AND HAS ONLY BEEN INCHING SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES IN THE
RAIN COOLED AIRMASS OVER THE AREA RANGED FROM THE MID 60S NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...TO THE MID 70S SOUTH.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
PRECIPITATION FOCUS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WITH YESTERDAY`S HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS NOT
ANTICIPATED. FARTHER NORTH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CAN`T BE
RULED OUT...BUT IF IT OCCURS WOULD LIKELY BE BEFORE 18Z. TONIGHT
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AT ALL LEVELS AS THE CURRENT
WEAK DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD SWINGS TO THE EAST COAST. PARTIAL
CLEARING SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER
THE OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE NEARLY
A RAIN-FREE PERIOD FOR THE MIDSOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES DON`T
APPEAR TO GET OVERLY HIGH...MAINTAINING AN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE
OF 16-17C OVER THE AREA. THIS TRANSLATED DOWNWARD CREATES SEASONAL
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOW 90S. COUPLED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO BE COMFORTABLE.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXTENDED MODELS EXPAND THE UPPER RIDGE
EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL SWING THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW THE RETURN TO 70+ DEWPOINTS.
COUPLED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...HEAT
INDICES WILL BEGIN TO CREST 100F. RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR
MINIMAL...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IN FUTURE FORECASTS DEPENDING
WHERE THE HIGH CENTER/WEAKNESSES SET UP.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
A MIX OF CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING AT ALL TAF
SITES RANGING FROM LIFR TO MVFR. LOWEST CIGS REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STRETCHED JUST SOUTH OF THE
I-40 CORRIDOR AS OF 12Z. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AT ALL
SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MOST SITES IMPROVING TO VFR BY
THIS TIME. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...EXPECTING A REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT KTUP. ELSEWHERE...DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD ADVECT IN
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT KTUP THIS MORNING...AND
NORTHERLY AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT. KTUP
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY COME AROUND NORTHERLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY THIS EVENING WITH VFR CIGS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST SOME MVFR
VSBYS IN FOG AND POTENTIALLY LOWER. HAVE PRECLUDED LOWER VSBYS AT
THIS TIME AS CONFIDENCE STILL NOT TOO HIGH THAT DEWPOINTS WILL
LOWER MUCH MORE THAN THE MID 60S WHICH COMBINED WITH A WET GROUND
SHOULD RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. JUST NOT SURE AT THIS POINT HOW
DENSE FOG WILL BE...BUT LOWER VSBYS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
JLH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 86 70 90 71 / 20 10 10 10
MKL 85 65 88 65 / 20 10 10 10
JBR 86 67 89 68 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 84 68 90 68 / 50 30 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 181146
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
646 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
STILL SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT ISSUANCE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS MORNING`S MCV THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE STATE. IFR
TO MVFR CIGS AND VIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 14-15Z AT ALL SITES
BEFORE FLIGHT CATEGORIES BEGIN TO IMPROVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
TYPICAL TRAILING STRATUS DECK IS LACKING...SO SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED TO GO SKC AT ALL SITES BY 18Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE NORTH. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING...CLEAR SKIES AND
SATURATED GROUNDS...OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE AT KCSV AS EARLY
AS 05Z/19 JUN.
27/UNGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELED THE FFA WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED AND LATEST
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS JUST SCT ACTIVITY FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. REST OF FORECAST IS UNCHANGED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED UPPER SYS MOVING ACRS WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. WARM RAIN PROCESS ONGOING
WITH IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER BANDS -
RANGING AROUND 0.5 IN/HR AT MANY SPOTS TO A MAX OF 1.3 INCH IN ONE
HOUR EARLIER AT MCEWEN. FORTUNATELY HVY RAINS HAVE NOT PERSISTED
OVER ANY ONE SPOT KEEPING OUR FLOOD RISK LOW. WILL HOLD ONTO THE
FFA FOR NOW FOR THE AREAS WHICH SAW THE HEAVIEST RAINS YDAY BUT
WILL CONSIDER CANCELING BASED ON TRENDS THRU SHIFT CHANGE.
OTHERWISE POPS ARE TRICKY TODAY AS CVRG WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE AS UPPER LOW SHEARS EAST BUT SOME
REDEVELOPMENT STILL PSBL. WILL HANDLE WITH AN ERLY CATEGORICAL
PERIOD TAPERING FROM THE NW AS THE DAY GOES ON. MAV TEMPS LOOK
RSNBL AS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM UP AS PRECIP CVRG DECREASES AND
SOME SUNSHINE DVLPS.
EXPECT LINGERING PCPN OVER OUR SE TO END TNGT THEN WITH A VERY
MOIST ATMOS/LIGHT WINDS XPCT TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG. AGAIN THE MAV
TEMPERATURES LOOK RSNBL.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHGS MADE TO THE EXTENDED AS WE ENTER WHAT LOOKS
LIKE A PRETTY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO
MOISTEN ENUF BY THE END OF THE WEEK FOR SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LEANED TWRD THE WARMER
MEX TEMPS VS THE COOLER HPC VALUES.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
27
000
FXUS64 KMRX 181135
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
735 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.AVIATION...RATHER SOLID AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 4 TO 7 HOURS. A MENTION
OF VCTS WAS JUSTIFIED FOR CHA AND TYS WITH MAINLY SHOWERS FOR TRI.
THESE SHOWERS AND TSRA ARE LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISBYS DOWN TO
MVFR...AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY DOWN TO IFR IF CONVECTION INTENSIFIES
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
WINDS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN...EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT AS THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKS ACROSS TODAY.
PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS IN THE 19/00Z TO 19/06Z PERIOD...BUT LOWER
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURN BEFORE 12Z WEDNESDAY TO
AT LEAST TRI. POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT TRI LATE.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TG
000
FXUS64 KMEG 181119
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
619 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REDUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FASTER THAN
EXPECTED. HAVE REDUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACCORDING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
JAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. A SUBTLE COLD FRONT WAS INDICATED IN THE OBS NEAR
I-40 AND HAS ONLY BEEN INCHING SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES IN THE
RAIN COOLED AIRMASS OVER THE AREA RANGED FROM THE MID 60S NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...TO THE MID 70S SOUTH.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
PRECIPITATION FOCUS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WITH YESTERDAY`S HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS NOT
ANTICIPATED. FARTHER NORTH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CAN`T BE
RULED OUT...BUT IF IT OCCURS WOULD LIKELY BE BEFORE 18Z. TONIGHT
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AT ALL LEVELS AS THE CURRENT
WEAK DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD SWINGS TO THE EAST COAST. PARTIAL
CLEARING SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER
THE OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE NEARLY
A RAIN-FREE PERIOD FOR THE MIDSOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES DON`T
APPEAR TO GET OVERLY HIGH...MAINTAINING AN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE
OF 16-17C OVER THE AREA. THIS TRANSLATED DOWNWARD CREATES SEASONAL
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOW 90S. COUPLED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO BE COMFORTABLE.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXTENDED MODELS EXPAND THE UPPER RIDGE
EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL SWING THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW THE RETURN TO 70+ DEWPOINTS.
COUPLED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...HEAT
INDICES WILL BEGIN TO CREST 100F. RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR
MINIMAL...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IN FUTURE FORECASTS DEPENDING
WHERE THE HIGH CENTER/WEAKNESSES SET UP.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR LATE THIS
EVENING. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS STILL PERSIST AROUND MEM/MKL/TUP.
HOWEVER...THINK A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL END
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18/08Z. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RE-DEVELOP AT MKL/TUP LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN 18/08-12Z. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY
LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH/NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 6-8 KTS
BEHIND THE FRONT.
CJC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 86 70 90 71 / 20 10 10 10
MKL 85 65 88 65 / 20 10 10 10
JBR 86 67 89 68 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 84 68 90 68 / 50 30 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 181025
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
525 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELED THE FFA WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED AND LATEST
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS JUST SCT ACTIVITY FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. REST OF FORECAST IS UNCHANGED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED UPPER SYS MOVING ACRS WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. WARM RAIN PROCESS ONGOING
WITH IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER BANDS -
RANGING AROUND 0.5 IN/HR AT MANY SPOTS TO A MAX OF 1.3 INCH IN ONE
HOUR EARLIER AT MCEWEN. FORTUNATELY HVY RAINS HAVE NOT PERSISTED
OVER ANY ONE SPOT KEEPING OUR FLOOD RISK LOW. WILL HOLD ONTO THE
FFA FOR NOW FOR THE AREAS WHICH SAW THE HEAVIEST RAINS YDAY BUT
WILL CONSIDER CANCELING BASED ON TRENDS THRU SHIFT CHANGE.
OTHERWISE POPS ARE TRICKY TODAY AS CVRG WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE AS UPPER LOW SHEARS EAST BUT SOME
REDEVELOPMENT STILL PSBL. WILL HANDLE WITH AN ERLY CATEGORICAL
PERIOD TAPERING FROM THE NW AS THE DAY GOES ON. MAV TEMPS LOOK
RSNBL AS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM UP AS PRECIP CVRG DECREASES AND
SOME SUNSHINE DVLPS.
EXPECT LINGERING PCPN OVER OUR SE TO END TNGT THEN WITH A VERY
MOIST ATMOS/LIGHT WINDS XPCT TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG. AGAIN THE MAV
TEMPERATURES LOOK RSNBL.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHGS MADE TO THE EXTENDED AS WE ENTER WHAT LOOKS
LIKE A PRETTY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO
MOISTEN ENUF BY THE END OF THE WEEK FOR SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LEANED TWRD THE WARMER
MEX TEMPS VS THE COOLER HPC VALUES.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
JOHNSTONE
000
FXUS64 KOHX 180827
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
327 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED UPPER SYS MOVING ACRS WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. WARM RAIN PROCESS ONGOING
WITH IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER BANDS -
RANGING AROUND 0.5 IN/HR AT MANY SPOTS TO A MAX OF 1.3 INCH IN ONE
HOUR EARLIER AT MCEWEN. FORTUNATELY HVY RAINS HAVE NOT PERSISTED
OVER ANY ONE SPOT KEEPING OUR FLOOD RISK LOW. WILL HOLD ONTO THE
FFA FOR NOW FOR THE AREAS WHICH SAW THE HEAVIEST RAINS YDAY BUT
WILL CONSIDER CANCELING BASED ON TRENDS THRU SHIFT CHANGE.
OTHERWISE POPS ARE TRICKY TODAY AS CVRG WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE AS UPPER LOW SHEARS EAST BUT SOME
REDEVELOPMENT STILL PSBL. WILL HANDLE WITH AN ERLY CATEGORICAL
PERIOD TAPERING FROM THE NW AS THE DAY GOES ON. MAV TEMPS LOOK
RSNBL AS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM UP AS PRECIP CVRG DECREASES AND
SOME SUNSHINE DVLPS.
EXPECT LINGERING PCPN OVER OUR SE TO END TNGT THEN WITH A VERY
MOIST ATMOS/LIGHT WINDS XPCT TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG. AGAIN THE MAV
TEMPERATURES LOOK RSNBL.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHGS MADE TO THE EXTENDED AS WE ENTER WHAT LOOKS
LIKE A PRETTY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO
MOISTEN ENUF BY THE END OF THE WEEK FOR SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LEANED TWRD THE WARMER
MEX TEMPS VS THE COOLER HPC VALUES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 83 66 87 65 / 100 10 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 84 64 86 62 / 100 05 10 0
CROSSVILLE 76 60 81 60 / 100 40 10 0
COLUMBIA 84 66 88 65 / 100 30 10 0
LAWRENCEBURG 84 65 88 63 / 100 40 10 0
WAVERLY 83 64 87 63 / 100 05 10 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TNZ056-058-
060-061-075-077-079-093>095.
&&
$$
JOHNSTONE
000
FXUS64 KMEG 180808
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
308 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. A SUBTLE COLD FRONT WAS INDICATED IN THE OBS NEAR
I-40 AND HAS ONLY BEEN INCHING SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES IN THE
RAIN COOLED AIRMASS OVER THE AREA RANGED FROM THE MID 60S NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...TO THE MID 70S SOUTH.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
PRECIPITATION FOCUS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WITH YESTERDAY`S HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS NOT
ANTICIPATED. FARTHER NORTH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CAN`T BE
RULED OUT...BUT IF IT OCCURS WOULD LIKELY BE BEFORE 18Z. TONIGHT
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AT ALL LEVELS AS THE CURRENT
WEAK DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD SWINGS TO THE EAST COAST. PARTIAL
CLEARING SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER
THE OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE NEARLY
A RAIN-FREE PERIOD FOR THE MIDSOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES DON`T
APPEAR TO GET OVERLY HIGH...MAINTAINING AN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE
OF 16-17C OVER THE AREA. THIS TRANSLATED DOWNWARD CREATES SEASONAL
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOW 90S. COUPLED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO BE COMFORTABLE.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXTENDED MODELS EXPAND THE UPPER RIDGE
EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL SWING THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW THE RETURN TO 70+ DEWPOINTS.
COUPLED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...HEAT
INDICES WILL BEGIN TO CREST 100F. RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR
MINIMAL...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IN FUTURE FORECASTS DEPENDING
WHERE THE HIGH CENTER/WEAKNESSES SET UP.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR LATE THIS
EVENING. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS STILL PERSIST AROUND MEM/MKL/TUP.
HOWEVER...THINK A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL END
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18/08Z. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RE-DEVELOP AT MKL/TUP LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN 18/08-12Z. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY
LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH/NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 6-8 KTS
BEHIND THE FRONT.
CJC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 86 70 90 71 / 40 10 10 10
MKL 85 65 88 65 / 40 10 10 10
JBR 86 67 89 68 / 20 10 10 10
TUP 84 68 90 68 / 60 30 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 180802
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL DEPICTED
ON SATELLITE PICS MOVING THROUGH W TN THIS MORNING. SURFACE LOW
CENTERED BRIEFLY OVER SW PARTS OF MIDDLE TN AT 07Z. EXPECTING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK EAST THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. QPF AMOUNTS
GENERALLY ADD UP TO BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES...BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT
A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS BY THIS EVENING. OPTED TO MENTION THIS
IN ZFP AND HWO PRODUCTS WITHOUT A FLOOD WATCH...DUE TO LATEST FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE AND COORDINATION WITH ADJACENT NWS OFFICES.
RAIN AMOUNTS AND CHANCES FALL SHARPLY THIS EVENING...BUT LINGER
OVERNIGHT DUE TO TRAILING SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT AND YET ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
MOS POPS NOT BAD...BUT I STAYED NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TODAY AND
CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS POP GRIDS FOR TONIGHT (HIGHER THAN GFS MOS).
NAM MOS MAX TEMPS ONCE AGAIN FAVORED OVER THE WARMER GFS MOS...
THEN A MOS BLEND OF MINS FOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/....
A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL EXIST IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY AND
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOW
END ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFF TO THE EAST AND A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
INCREASES. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...WARM AND SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 81 66 86 65 86 / 100 30 10 10 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 80 63 83 64 85 / 100 40 10 10 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 79 62 84 63 86 / 90 30 10 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 77 59 79 59 81 / 100 60 20 10 20
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TG/AMP
000
FXUS64 KMRX 180539
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
140 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.AVIATION...WILL REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD. SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAIN CHANCE OF TSRA FOR THE FIRST 6 TO 9 HOURS WILL BE AT
CHA...ALTHO WON`T RULE OUT A STRAY BRIEF -TSRA AT TYS OR TRI.
THIS WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT LOW TO MID LEVEL CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS AND VISBY AS A BAND OF CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...THEN AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE DAY WITH A
SHIFT TO WEST OR NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TG
000
FXUS64 KOHX 180509
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1209 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHRA AND A FEW -TSRA SPREADING ACROSS CKV/BNA CURRENTLY AND WILL
REACH CSV IN A FEW HOURS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VIS OVERNIGHT WITH IFR
IN HEAVIER TSRA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z WITH PRECIP MOVING
EAST OF AIRPORTS BUT MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 17Z. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BACK TO NORTH AND NORTHWEST DURING
THE DAY AS MCV MOVES ACROSS.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
UPDATE...
CONVECTION ACROSS SW TN BEGINNING TO FILL IN AND INCREASE IN
INTENSITY. LEANING MORE TOWARD HPC QPF NOW WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. LATEST STORM
TOTAL QPF DOES SHOW 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS...FROM THE EARLIER
RAINFALL OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. EST QPF TOTALS THROUGH 18Z
TOMORROW LOOK LIKE 1 1/2 TO 2 1/2 ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. LATEST
FFG FROM THE RFC`S HAVE LOWERED A BIT AS WELL.
WILL OPT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ROUGHLY OUR SOUTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES. PERRY...LEWIS AND MAURY WILL ALSO BE INCLUDED.
THANKS TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR COORD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
UPDATE...
THIS EVENING...STRONG SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER IL WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING SW ACROSS MO. MEANWHILE...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS LOCATED
OVER EAST CENTRAL AR. WITH PVA MERGING WITH THE EXPECTED
SFC TRACK TOWARD THE EAST...WE EXPECT THIS LOW LEVEL FEATURE TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH MOVING THE SFC LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE MID
STATE BY 12Z. THUS...WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING INCREASING AND
COMBINING WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE...PLENTIFUL DYNAMICS LOOK TO
BE COMING TOGETHER TO PROMOTE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
AN EXAMINATION OF THE LATEST STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
THE LATEST RFC FFG DOES NOT SUGGEST A WIDESPREAD FLOODING EVENT.
FURTHERMORE...THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
SHOULD PREVENT THE REQUIRED HEAVIER QPF RETURN FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING.
GFS MODEL DOES SHOW IMPRESSIVE CIRCULAR QPF STRUCTURE BUT THE
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX LOOKS BLOWN UP AND DOES NOT CORRESPOND WELL
TO THE APPARENT UPSTREAM CURVATURE AND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY...THE
MODEL INITIALIZES TOO FAR SOUTH WITH THE BULLSEYE AND THUS...IF IT
WERE TO PAN OUT...THE HEAVIER RAIN WOULD REMAIN NORTH OF TN.
FOR THE UPDATE...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO THE GRIDS OTHER THAN
A 20% UPWARD QPF ADJUSTMENT. ALL IN ALL...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITIES
HAVE LESSENED. THE OVERNIGHT LOOKS MORE AND MORE LIKE A SOLID RAIN
EVENT WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID
STATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...UNSETTLED WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AFT 04Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFT 12Z
AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD MOVING
BOUNDARIES. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL COMMENCE AFT 18Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
BAND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CLARKSVILLE SOUTHEAST
DOWN THROUGH FRANKLIN...LEWISBURG INTO NORTH ALABAMA. THE STRONG
STORM CURRENTLY IS ON THE DICKSON AND CHEATHAM COUNTY LINE JUST
SOUTHWEST OF ASHLAND CITY. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS AND BE MORE ALIGNED FROM
CLARKSVILLE DOWN THROUGH THE NASHVILLE AREA AND BETWEEN INTERSTATE
40 AND INTERSTATE 24 ON TOWARD CHATTANOOGA BY 5 OR 6 PM.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR TNZ056-058-060-
061-075-077-079-093>095.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 180453
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1153 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
ADJUSTED POPS DOWN A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS...AND SOFTENED THE THUNDERSTORM WORDING. DISCUSSED THE
NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTH
TENNESSEE...MAINLY ALONG THE TENNESSEE MISSISSIPPI STATE
LINE...BUT BASED ON ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AND MOVEMENT OF
STORMS FEEL LIKE DURATION AND COVERAGE OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED
WARNINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND AN URBAN AND URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA THROUGH 11:15 PM.
HODOGRAPHS DO NOT INDICATE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF BACKBUILDING
STORMS AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF THE FLOOD ADVISORY SHOULD NOT BE
EXPLOSIVE NOR WIDESPREAD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY LOOK TO BE ON
TRACK...ALTHOUGH COLD POOLS BENEATH STORMS...AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME UNUSUAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS
TONIGHT.
FINALLY...ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST AREA WIDE. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT AND THERE IS ABUNDANT GROUND MOISTURE IN PLACE. DESPITE LESS
THAN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF EXPECTED
LOWS...SO AT LEAST PATCHY FOG LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...THE OLD MCV THAT KICKED OFF CONVECTION OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING HAS MOVED EAST TO THE TN RIVER WITH THE
ASSOCD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND NRN
AL. MEANWHILE TO THE WEST...A MORE SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IS MOVING INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PUSH INTO THE MEMPHIS METRO OVER THE NEXT FEW OF HOURS.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH IS
VERY MOIST WITH PRECIP H20 VALUES AOA 2 INCHES AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO UNSTABLE IN AREAS THAT
HAVE NOT BEEN WORKED OVER...WITH VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG IN SOME
AREAS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE WEAK AND WINDS ALOFT ARE
ALSO WEAK SO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY. AS A RESULT
OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND THE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE EXPECT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR
THOUGH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS PROBABLY THE
BIGGER THREAT. HWO HANDLES THIS WELL.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI WITH CHANCES
TAPERING OFF ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF
THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT MOST
OF THE PRECIP TO BE SOUTHEAST OF AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT A
SMALL POP IN ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY NIGHT OTRW EXPECT
RAIN FREE CONDS AND CLEARING SKIES. EXPECT MOST PLACES TO HAVE ONE
TO TWO INCHES DURING THE ENTIRE EVENT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A NICE DAY TO THE MIDSOUTH
WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
COULD BE A FEW AFTERNOON POP UP THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LOW AND NOT WORTH
MENTIONING ATTM.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR LATE THIS
EVENING. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS STILL PERSIST AROUND MEM/MKL/TUP.
HOWEVER...THINK A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL END
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18/08Z. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RE-DEVELOP AT MKL/TUP LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN 18/08-12Z. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY
LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH/NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 6-8 KTS
BEHIND THE FRONT.
CJC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 70 87 71 90 / 80 50 10 10
MKL 69 85 66 88 / 80 50 10 10
JBR 71 87 67 90 / 70 30 10 10
TUP 71 85 70 90 / 80 70 20 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 180250
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
950 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ADJUSTED POPS DOWN A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS...AND SOFTENED THE THUNDERSTORM WORDING. DISCUSSED THE
NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTH
TENNESSEE...MAINLY ALONG THE TENNESSEE MISSISSIPPI STATE
LINE...BUT BASED ON ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AND MOVEMENT OF
STORMS FEEL LIKE DURATION AND COVERAGE OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED
WARNINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND AN URBAN AND URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA THROUGH 11:15 PM.
HODOGRAPHS DO NOT INDICATE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF BACKBUILDING
STORMS AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF THE FLOOD ADVISORY SHOULD NOT BE
EXPLOSIVE NOR WIDESPREAD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY LOOK TO BE ON
TRACK...ALTHOUGH COLD POOLS BENEATH STORMS...AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME UNUSUAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS
TONIGHT.
FINALLY...ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST AREA WIDE. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT AND THERE IS ABUNDANT GROUND MOISTURE IN PLACE. DESPITE LESS
THAN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF EXPECTED
LOWS...SO AT LEAST PATCHY FOG LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...THE OLD MCV THAT KICKED OFF CONVECTION OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING HAS MOVED EAST TO THE TN RIVER WITH THE
ASSOCD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND NRN
AL. MEANWHILE TO THE WEST...A MORE SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IS MOVING INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PUSH INTO THE MEMPHIS METRO OVER THE NEXT FEW OF HOURS.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH IS
VERY MOIST WITH PRECIP H20 VALUES AOA 2 INCHES AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO UNSTABLE IN AREAS THAT
HAVE NOT BEEN WORKED OVER...WITH VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG IN SOME
AREAS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE WEAK AND WINDS ALOFT ARE
ALSO WEAK SO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY. AS A RESULT
OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND THE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE EXPECT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR
THOUGH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS PROBABLY THE
BIGGER THREAT. HWO HANDLES THIS WELL.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI WITH CHANCES
TAPERING OFF ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF
THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT MOST
OF THE PRECIP TO BE SOUTHEAST OF AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT A
SMALL POP IN ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY NIGHT OTRW EXPECT
RAIN FREE CONDS AND CLEARING SKIES. EXPECT MOST PLACES TO HAVE ONE
TO TWO INCHES DURING THE ENTIRE EVENT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A NICE DAY TO THE MIDSOUTH
WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
COULD BE A FEW AFTERNOON POP UP THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LOW AND NOT WORTH
MENTIONING ATTM.
SJM
AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TONIGHT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AT TAF SITES THIS
EVENING WILL BE THROUGH 17/03Z...WITH A DIMINISHING POTENTIAL
THEREAFTER WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY. WILL CARRY A TEMPO
FOR -TSRA AT MEM THROUGH 17/01Z...AND MKL BETWEEN 17/01-03Z.
OTHERWISE...VCTS SHOULD HANDLE THUNDER POTENTIAL WELL EARLY THIS
EVENING. SOME RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY AT MKL/TUP. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS CEILINGS LOWER AND
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT MKL/JBR/TUP. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO RETURN BY TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER NORTHWEST/NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 8 KTS BY TUESDAY MORNING.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 70 87 71 90 / 80 50 10 10
MKL 69 85 66 88 / 80 50 10 10
JBR 71 87 67 90 / 70 30 10 10
TUP 71 85 70 90 / 80 70 20 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 180236
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
936 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION ACROSS SW TN BEGINNING TO FILL IN AND INCREASE IN
INTENSITY. LEANING MORE TOWARD HPC QPF NOW WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. LATEST STORM
TOTAL QPF DOES SHOW 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS...FROM THE EARLIER
RAINFALL OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. EST QPF TOTALS THROUGH 18Z
TOMORROW LOOK LIKE 1 1/2 TO 2 1/2 ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. LATEST
FFG FROM THE RFC`S HAVE LOWERED A BIT AS WELL.
WILL OPT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ROUGHLY OUR SOUTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES. PERRY...LEWIS AND MAURY WILL ALSO BE INCLUDED.
THANKS TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR COORD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
UPDATE...
THIS EVENING...STRONG SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER IL WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING SW ACROSS MO. MEANWHILE...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS LOCATED
OVER EAST CENTRAL AR. WITH PVA MERGING WITH THE EXPECTED
SFC TRACK TOWARD THE EAST...WE EXPECT THIS LOW LEVEL FEATURE TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH MOVING THE SFC LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE MID
STATE BY 12Z. THUS...WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING INCREASING AND
COMBINING WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE...PLENTIFUL DYNAMICS LOOK TO
BE COMING TOGETHER TO PROMOTE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
AN EXAMINATION OF THE LATEST STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
THE LATEST RFC FFG DOES NOT SUGGEST A WIDESPREAD FLOODING EVENT.
FURTHERMORE...THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
SHOULD PREVENT THE REQUIRED HEAVIER QPF RETURN FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING.
GFS MODEL DOES SHOW IMPRESSIVE CIRCULAR QPF STRUCTURE BUT THE
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX LOOKS BLOWN UP AND DOES NOT CORRESPOND WELL
TO THE APPARENT UPSTREAM CURVATURE AND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY...THE
MODEL INITIALIZES TOO FAR SOUTH WITH THE BULLSEYE AND THUS...IF IT
WERE TO PAN OUT...THE HEAVIER RAIN WOULD REMAIN NORTH OF TN.
FOR THE UPDATE...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO THE GRIDS OTHER THAN
A 20% UPWARD QPF ADJUSTMENT. ALL IN ALL...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITIES
HAVE LESSENED. THE OVERNIGHT LOOKS MORE AND MORE LIKE A SOLID RAIN
EVENT WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID
STATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...UNSETTLED WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AFT 04Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFT 12Z
AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD MOVING
BOUNDARIES. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL COMMENCE AFT 18Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
BAND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CLARKSVILLE SOUTHEAST
DOWN THROUGH FRANKLIN...LEWISBURG INTO NORTH ALABAMA. THE STRONG
STORM CURRENTLY IS ON THE DICKSON AND CHEATHAM COUNTY LINE JUST
SOUTHWEST OF ASHLAND CITY. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS AND BE MORE ALIGNED FROM
CLARKSVILLE DOWN THROUGH THE NASHVILLE AREA AND BETWEEN INTERSTATE
40 AND INTERSTATE 24 ON TOWARD CHATTANOOGA BY 5 OR 6 PM.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR TNZ056-058-060-
061-075-077-079-093>095.
&&
$$
21
000
FXUS64 KMRX 180152
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
950 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...WILL SEE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL PRECIP ACROSS THE MRX
CWA TONIGHT AS A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE BANDS PUSH ACROSS THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS MORE LIKELY WITH THE INITIAL BAND THIS EVENING WITH
MOSTLY SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE
LOWS IN THE 60S. ALL ON TRACK IN THE CURRENT ZONE PACKAGE...WILL
UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 82 66 88 64 / 90 90 30 10 10
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN 67 80 65 85 63 / 80 90 40 10 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 68 80 64 86 62 / 90 90 30 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 64 78 62 82 57 / 70 100 60 10 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
MJB
000
FXUS64 KOHX 180017
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
717 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
THIS EVENING...STRONG SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER IL WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING SW ACROSS MO. MEANWHILE...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS LOCATED
OVER EAST CENTRAL AR. WITH PVA MERGING WITH THE EXPECTED
SFC TRACK TOWARD THE EAST...WE EXPECT THIS LOW LEVEL FEATURE TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH MOVING THE SFC LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE MID
STATE BY 12Z. THUS...WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING INCREASING AND
COMBINING WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE...PLENTIFUL DYNAMICS LOOK TO
BE COMING TOGETHER TO PROMOTE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
AN EXAMINATION OF THE LATEST STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
THE LATEST RFC FFG DOES NOT SUGGEST A WIDESPREAD FLOODING EVENT.
FURTHERMORE...THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
SHOULD PREVENT THE REQUIRED HEAVIER QPF RETURN FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING.
GFS MODEL DOES SHOW IMPRESSIVE CIRCULAR QPF STRUCTURE BUT THE
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX LOOKS BLOWN UP AND DOES NOT CORRESPOND WELL
TO THE APPARENT UPSTREAM CURVATURE AND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY...THE
MODEL INITIALIZES TOO FAR SOUTH WITH THE BULLSEYE AND THUS...IF IT
WERE TO PAN OUT...THE HEAVIER RAIN WOULD REMAIN NORTH OF TN.
FOR THE UPDATE...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO THE GRIDS OTHER THAN
A 20% UPWARD QPF ADJUSTMENT. ALL IN ALL...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITIES
HAVE LESSENED. THE OVERNIGHT LOOKS MORE AND MORE LIKE A SOLID RAIN
EVENT WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID
STATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...UNSETTLED WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AFT 04Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFT 12Z
AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD MOVING
BOUNDARIES. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL COMMENCE AFT 18Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
BAND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CLARKSVILLE SOUTHEAST
DOWN THROUGH FRANKLIN...LEWISBURG INTO NORTH ALABAMA. THE STRONG
STORM CURRENTLY IS ON THE DICKSON AND CHEATHAM COUNTY LINE JUST
SOUTHWEST OF ASHLAND CITY. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS AND BE MORE ALIGNED FROM
CLARKSVILLE DOWN THROUGH THE NASHVILLE AREA AND BETWEEN INTERSTATE
40 AND INTERSTATE 24 ON TOWARD CHATTANOOGA BY 5 OR 6 PM.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
000
FXUS64 KMRX 180004
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
800 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.AVIATION...WILL BE A WET TAF PERIOD AS A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE BANDS
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE
PERSISTENT LOW TO MID LEVEL CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND VIS
AS A BAND MOVES THROUGH. AS FOR WINDS...THEY WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW 10KT ON TUESDAY.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
MJB
000
FXUS64 KMEG 172356
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
656 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...THE OLD MCV THAT KICKED OFF CONVECTION OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING HAS MOVED EAST TO THE TN RIVER WITH THE
ASSOCD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND NRN
AL. MEANWHILE TO THE WEST...A MORE SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IS MOVING INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PUSH INTO THE MEMPHIS METRO OVER THE NEXT FEW OF HOURS.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH IS
VERY MOIST WITH PRECIP H20 VALUES AOA 2 INCHES AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO UNSTABLE IN AREAS THAT
HAVE NOT BEEN WORKED OVER...WITH VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG IN SOME
AREAS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE WEAK AND WINDS ALOFT ARE
ALSO WEAK SO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY. AS A RESULT
OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND THE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE EXPECT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR
THOUGH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS PROBABLY THE
BIGGER THREAT. HWO HANDLES THIS WELL.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI WITH CHANCES
TAPERING OFF ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF
THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT MOST
OF THE PRECIP TO BE SOUTHEAST OF AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT A
SMALL POP IN ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY NIGHT OTRW EXPECT
RAIN FREE CONDS AND CLEARING SKIES. EXPECT MOST PLACES TO HAVE ONE
TO TWO INCHES DURING THE ENTIRE EVENT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A NICE DAY TO THE MIDSOUTH
WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
COULD BE A FEW AFTERNOON POP UP THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LOW AND NOT WORTH
MENTIONING ATTM.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TONIGHT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AT TAF SITES THIS
EVENING WILL BE THROUGH 17/03Z...WITH A DIMINISHING POTENTIAL
THEREAFTER WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY. WILL CARRY A TEMPO
FOR -TSRA AT MEM THROUGH 17/01Z...AND MKL BETWEEN 17/01-03Z.
OTHERWISE...VCTS SHOULD HANDLE THUNDER POTENTIAL WELL EARLY THIS
EVENING. SOME RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY AT MKL/TUP. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS CEILINGS LOWER AND
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT MKL/JBR/TUP. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO RETURN BY TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER NORTHWEST/NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 8 KTS BY TUESDAY MORNING.
CJC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 72 87 71 90 / 80 50 10 10
MKL 69 85 66 88 / 80 50 10 10
JBR 69 87 67 90 / 70 30 10 10
TUP 72 85 70 90 / 80 70 20 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 172325
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
625 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID
STATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...UNSETTLED WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AFT 04Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFT 12Z
AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD MOVING
BOUNDARIES. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL COMMENCE AFT 18Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
BAND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CLARKSVILLE SOUTHEAST
DOWN THROUGH FRANKLIN...LEWISBURG INTO NORTH ALABAMA. THE STRONG
STORM CURRENTLY IS ON THE DICKSON AND CHEATHAM COUNTY LINE JUST
SOUTHWEST OF ASHLAND CITY. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS AND BE MORE ALIGNED FROM
CLARKSVILLE DOWN THROUGH THE NASHVILLE AREA AND BETWEEN INTERSTATE
40 AND INTERSTATE 24 ON TOWARD CHATTANOOGA BY 5 OR 6 PM.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
000
FXUS64 KMEG 172044
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
344 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...THE OLD MCV THAT KICKED OFF CONVECTION OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING HAS MOVED EAST TO THE TN RIVER WITH THE
ASSOCD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND NRN
AL. MEANWHILE TO THE WEST...A MORE SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IS MOVING INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PUSH INTO THE MEMPHIS METRO OVER THE NEXT FEW OF HOURS.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH IS
VERY MOIST WITH PRECIP H20 VALUES AOA 2 INCHES AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO UNSTABLE IN AREAS THAT
HAVE NOT BEEN WORKED OVER...WITH VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG IN SOME
AREAS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE WEAK AND WINDS ALOFT ARE
ALSO WEAK SO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY. AS A RESULT
OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND THE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE EXPECT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR
THOUGH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS PROBABLY THE
BIGGER THREAT. HWO HANDLES THIS WELL.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI WITH CHANCES
TAPERING OFF ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF
THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT MOST
OF THE PRECIP TO BE SOUTHEAST OF AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT A
SMALL POP IN ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY NIGHT OTRW EXPECT
RAIN FREE CONDS AND CLEARING SKIES. EXPECT MOST PLACES TO HAVE ONE
TO TWO INCHES DURING THE ENTIRE EVENT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A NICE DAY TO THE MIDSOUTH
WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
COULD BE A FEW AFTERNOON POP UP THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LOW AND NOT WORTH
MENTIONING ATTM.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE A EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME IS AT JBR.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS OR SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE QUICK DOWNPOURS WITH
VISIBILITIES FROM 1 TO 3 MILES WITH RAPID CHANGES IN CEILING AND
VISIBILITY IN THE CONVECTION.
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR VCSH EXTENDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT AFTER 02Z FOR
ALL TAF SITES BEFORE ENDING AT 07Z IN JBR AND 15Z AT TUP.
BELLES
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 72 87 71 90 / 80 50 10 10
MKL 69 85 66 88 / 80 50 10 10
JBR 69 87 67 90 / 70 30 10 10
TUP 72 85 70 90 / 80 70 20 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 171952
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
252 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
BAND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CLARKSVILLE SOUTHEAST
DOWN THROUGH FRANKLIN...LEWISBURG INTO NORTH ALABAMA. THE STRONG
STORM CURRENTLY IS ON THE DICKSON AND CHEATHAM COUNTY LINE JUST
SOUTHWEST OF ASHLAND CITY. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS AND BE MORE ALIGNED FROM
CLARKSVILLE DOWN THROUGH THE NASHVILLE AREA AND BETWEEN INTERSTATE
40 AND INTERSTATE 24 ON TOWARD CHATTANOOGA BY 5 OR 6 PM.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
BOYD
01
000
FXUS64 KMRX 171900
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
300 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH A COUPLE OF AREA DEWPOINTS REACHING 70 DEG
TODAY. A SOMEWHAT ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT...WITH ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND
MIDDLE TN/AL/MS PRESENTLY...WHICH IS PART OF THE CATEGORICAL PRECIP
EVENT THAT IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND RUNNING THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
WON`T BE THE EASIEST THING TIMING THE BANDS OF PRECIP AS THEY ROLE
THROUGH...BUT POPS ARE HIGH TONIGHT AND TUES. MODELS DISAGREE A BIT
ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP DEPARTURE LATE TUESDAY...THE GFS IS
QUICKEST...BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF
THE NAM/CANADIAN/ECMWF...THUS TUES EVENING POPS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN MAV MOS...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS MET MOS.
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT OVERALL...AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRYER AIR WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CONVECTIVE ENERGY LOOKS MINIMAL SO WILL GO
DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
TO OUR EAST AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ENOUGH FOR SOME MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION...SO WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY. GFS MOS
TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE OVERALL SO JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 82 66 88 64 / 90 90 30 10 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 67 80 65 85 63 / 80 90 40 10 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 68 80 64 86 62 / 90 90 30 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 64 78 62 82 57 / 70 100 60 10 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
GC/LW
000
FXUS64 KOHX 171823
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
123 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECTING EAST FROM UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
DOWN THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT EARLY
AFTERNOON. FIRST SHORT WAVE FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS DOWN THROUGH
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO LOUISIANA WITH BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
FROM FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY DOWN THROUGH WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO
NORTHWEST ALABAMA. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW WILL WORK EAST
TONIGHT AND DEEPEN A LITTLE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY IN THE OVERNIGHT. THINK THE HEAVIER RAINS FOR THE MID STATE
WILL COME IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE MID
STATE TAKING MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THIS WAY MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 80S BUT TEMPS HEAT UP INTO THE LOWER
90S WITH MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE PLATEAU THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CANT RULE OUT SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
.HYDROLOGY...RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING ACROSS BEDFORD...COFFEE
AND GRUNDY COUNTIES TOTALED OVER 3 INCHES IN A SMALL CORRIDOR FROM
NORMANDY TO JUST SOUTH OF MANCHESTER AND IN A SMALL AREA JUST
SOUTH OF COALMONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 70 83 67 86 / 70 60 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 67 84 65 85 / 70 30 10 10
CROSSVILLE 65 76 61 80 / 70 70 10 10
COLUMBIA 70 84 67 87 / 80 60 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 70 84 66 87 / 80 60 20 10
WAVERLY 68 83 65 86 / 70 60 10 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
BOYD
01
000
FXUS64 KMEG 171817
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
117 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATE FOR 18Z TAF CYCLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEFTOVER MCV CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING WITH ACTIVITY
EXPANDING N/NW INTO THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA AND INTO PARTS OF
EASTERN AR. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME FOCUS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ALSO THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
UPSTREAM...ACROSS EASTERN KS/OK...HAS KICKED OFF AN MCS MOVING
INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND THIS MAY PLAY A ROLE IN GENERATING
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE AIRMASS IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...PRECIP WATER
VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES AND SBCAPES BEGINNING TO TOP 2000 J/KG AS
SURFACE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 80S. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF
FUEL FOR THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
AND RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT MUCH ORGANIZATION.
ALSO...DUE TO THE DEEP MOISTURE EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
STORMS. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...MAY TWEAK SOME POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT CONDS.
SJM
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. A
WET...OCCASIONALLY STORMY...WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN HOLDING DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME. A TURN TO SUMMER HEAT AND MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
FOR TODAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW EXTENDING
FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO
CAUSE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 2 INCHES...THUS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LIFTED INDICES DECREASE TO BETWEEN
MINUS 6 AND MINUS 8 WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES BETWEEN 2000 AND 2800
J/KG. ALTHOUGH...MID LEVEL LAPSES RATES ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK FOR TODAY.
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH LATEST MODELS DO NOT INDICATE AS STRONG
OF A SHORT WAVE AS THEY DID IN EARLIER RUNS. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THUS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE.
THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME AROUND TO BEING IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH AS IT
PUSHES SOUTHWARD. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH TUESDAY...BUT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CONFINED TO NORTH MS. BETWEEN TODAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MOST
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AT LEAST BETWEEN ONE AND TWO
INCHES OF RAIN. ON WEDNESDAY...LEFT IN A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH MS AND A SMALL PORTION OF EAST CENTRAL AR AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST
WITH SUMMER HEAT RETURNING ALONG WITH MOSTLY RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE A EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME IS AT JBR.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS OR SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE QUICK DOWNPOURS WITH
VISIBILITIES FROM 1 TO 3 MILES WITH RAPID CHANGES IN CEILING AND
VISIBILITY IN THE CONVECTION.
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR VCSH EXTENDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT AFTER 02Z FOR
ALL TAF SITES BEFORE ENDING AT 07Z IN JBR AND 15Z AT TUP.
BELLES
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 72 86 71 90 / 70 60 10 10
MKL 69 84 67 88 / 70 60 10 10
JBR 70 87 69 90 / 70 40 10 10
TUP 72 86 70 89 / 70 70 30 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 171803
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
103 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAFS...
&&
.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. VICINITY STORMS ARE
LIKELY FOR CKV AND BNA UNTIL AROUND 20Z WHEN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS APPROACHES. SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH LOWERING CIGS AND VIS TO AROUND 2 MILES AT TIMES.
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AT ALL
SITES WITH PASSING SHOWERS BRINGING DOWN VIS ONCE AGAIN. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF THUNDER, HOWEVER SHOWERS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS LOOKS
MORE LIKELY. AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES TUESDAY MORNING WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM
THE WEST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE EXTENDS DOWN THROUGH EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO
LOUISIANA WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.
STORMS HAVE WORKED NORTHEAST FROM MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTH ALABAMA
AND WESTERN TENNESSEE AND WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITHIN THE HOUR. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STORMS.
HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN FALLING OVER BEDFORD...COFFEE
AND GRUNDY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
BOYD
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
11
000
FXUS64 KMRX 171743
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
143 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.AVIATION...
NEXT AREA OF CONVECTION IS ORGANIZING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WILL GENERALLY MOVE EAST INTO E TN THROUGH EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
BESIDES SPOTTY CONVECTION OVER THE AREA PRESENTLY...FORECAST WILL
BECOME FOR CATEGORICAL RAIN TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM VFR PRESENTLY TO MVFR AND MAYBE
IFR DURING...MAINLY WEST TO EAST...BEGINNING AFTER 00Z.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
GC
000
FXUS64 KOHX 171654
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1154 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE EXTENDS DOWN THROUGH EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO
LOUISIANA WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.
STORMS HAVE WORKED NORTHEAST FROM MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTH ALABAMA
AND WESTERN TENNESSEE AND WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITHIN THE HOUR. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STORMS.
HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN FALLING OVER BEDFORD...COFFEE
AND GRUNDY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
BOYD
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
BOYD
01
000
FXUS64 KMEG 171523
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1023 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEFTOVER MCV CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING WITH ACTIVITY
EXPANDING N/NW INTO THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA AND INTO PARTS OF
EASTERN AR. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME FOCUS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ALSO THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
UPSTREAM...ACROSS EASTERN KS/OK...HAS KICKED OFF AN MCS MOVING
INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND THIS MAY PLAY A ROLE IN GENERATING
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE AIRMASS IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...PRECIP WATER
VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES AND SBCAPES BEGINNING TO TOP 2000 J/KG AS
SURFACE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 80S. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF
FUEL FOR THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
AND RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT MUCH ORGANIZATION.
ALSO...DUE TO THE DEEP MOISTURE EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
STORMS. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...MAY TWEAK SOME POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT CONDS.
SJM
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. A
WET...OCCASIONALLY STORMY...WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN HOLDING DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME. A TURN TO SUMMER HEAT AND MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
FOR TODAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW EXTENDING
FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO
CAUSE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 2 INCHES...THUS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LIFTED INDICES DECREASE TO BETWEEN
MINUS 6 AND MINUS 8 WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES BETWEEN 2000 AND 2800
J/KG. ALTHOUGH...MID LEVEL LAPSES RATES ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK FOR TODAY.
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH LATEST MODELS DO NOT INDICATE AS STRONG
OF A SHORT WAVE AS THEY DID IN EARLIER RUNS. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THUS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE.
THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME AROUND TO BEING IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH AS IT
PUSHES SOUTHWARD. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH TUESDAY...BUT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CONFINED TO NORTH MS. BETWEEN TODAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MOST
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AT LEAST BETWEEN ONE AND TWO
INCHES OF RAIN. ON WEDNESDAY...LEFT IN A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH MS AND A SMALL PORTION OF EAST CENTRAL AR AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST
WITH SUMMER HEAT RETURNING ALONG WITH MOSTLY RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AGAIN BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
TIMING. EXPECTING BEST COVERAGE TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AT ALL SITES WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING AT TUP INTO THE
EVENING...WHILE REMAINING IN VICINITY AT THE OTHER LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW OF THIS OCCURRING...AND SCATTERED STORMS
COULD EASILY CONTINUE AT THE SITES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH SOME LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS TO NEAR JBR.
WINDS THIS PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 4-8 KTS...WITH VARIABLE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN AND AROUND STORMS. WINDS WILL VEER
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AT JBR.
JAB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 88 72 86 71 / 70 70 60 10
MKL 87 69 84 67 / 70 70 60 10
JBR 88 70 87 69 / 70 70 40 10
TUP 88 72 86 70 / 70 70 70 30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 171515
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1115 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATE EXPECTED. MORNING RAIN IS WANING BUT STILL LINGERING. MAY
SEE SOME AFTERNOON ACTIVITY DEVELOP LATER.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
GC
000
FXUS64 KOHX 171407
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
907 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REFIRE ACROSS AREAS JUST WEST OF
INTERSTATE 24 FROM SOUTHEAST WILLIAMSON COUNTY DOWN THROUGH
BEDFORD...COFFEE INTO GRUNDY COUNTIES. RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN
AROUND 0.75 INCH TO 1.00 INCH PER HOUR OVER THE LAST HOUR. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS HAS BEEN FROM NORMANDY
LAKE TO JUST SOUTH OF BONNAROO AREA AND IN THE COALMONT AREA OF
GRUNDY COUNTY WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN.
CHATTED WITH FORECASTER AT HUNTSVILLE VIA OF PLANET 12 ABOUT CURRENT
CONVECTION. HE MENTIONED A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE 500 MILLIBAR
HEIGHT FIELD FROM JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 24 DOWN INTO EASTERN
ALABAMA. THIS MAY BE VERY WELL BE WHY THIS IS FIRING LIKE IT HAS
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. I CANT FIND ANY LOW LEVEL FEATURES...IN FACT
THERE IS DIFFLUENCE IN THE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS ACROSS THIS AREA.
SO GO FIGURE.
BOYD
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
000
FXUS64 KMRX 171140
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
740 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.AVIATION...CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING RATHER ROBUSTLY ACROSS SE
TN THIS MORNING...WITH BOTH TYS AND CHA LIKELY TO HAVE A PASSING
TSRA AT LEAST THROUGH ABOUT 14Z TO 16Z. BRIEF HEAVY RAINS WILL LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISBYS TO BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. TRI MAY GET AT LEAST
SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING AN IMPROVEMENT FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THE EVENING
...BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS AGAIN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
THINKING MOSTLY SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY FOR MAINLY CHA AND TYS.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AT TRI...WHERE NO SHOWERS
OCCUR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 85 68 81 65 84 / 70 70 80 40 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 67 81 64 83 / 60 60 90 40 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 84 67 80 64 83 / 60 60 80 40 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 83 61 79 61 83 / 50 50 90 40 20
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TG
000
FXUS64 KOHX 171131
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
631 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
A FEW SPOTS OF MVFR BR AROUND MIDDLE TENNESSEE TERMINALS AT
ISSUANCE. THIS WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN OUR
ATTENTION TURNS TO SH/TS. WITH THE VARIETY OF SUGGESTIONS AS TO
WHEN ANY TERMINAL MAY EXPERIENCE RAINS...AND THE FACT THAT IT
LOOKS TO BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING FOR
ONSET...WILL ONLY GO VCTS FOR NOW. BULK OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH
EARLY...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.
27/UNGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WERE DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
MORNING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE AND INCREASE AS WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER ARKANSAS MOVES
TOWARD MIDDLE TN LATER TODAY. ALTHOUGH OVERALL AIRMASS IS WARMER
AND MORE MOIST THAN 24 HOURS AGO...INCREASING AREAS OF PRECIP PLUS
EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP MAX TEMPS FROM GETTING
ANY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...IE...WILL FORECAST 80S ALL AREAS
TODAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS ARE UNLIKELY DUE TO INSTABILITY BEING HELD IN CHECK BY
CLOUD COVER.
MODELS VARYING SOMEWHAT RUN TO RUN IN HANDLING SEVERAL WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW. CONSENSUS SEEMS TO POINT
TOWARD THE NEXT TWO SHORT WAVES ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT AND LATE
TUESDAY. THUS...WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT POPS FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK TROFS ACT ON A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. WILL TREND BACK QPF SOMEWHAT...IN AGREEMENT WITH MODELS
AND HPC.
ONE TRICKY ASPECT TO THIS FORECAST IS THE MOVEMENT OF THE WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD ARRIVE TUESDAY. MODELS SEEM A BIT SLOWER
WITH THIS FRONT. GFS ADVERTISES A BETTER DEFINED AND FASTER FRONT
THAN ECMWF/S FORECAST. WILL OPT FOR A BLEND OF THE TWO...AND
EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MID STATE DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AND THEN SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS LONG AS THE FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA. WILL ADD LOW POPS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN CASE FRONT SLOWS.
SHOULD BE RAIN FREE BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAX
TEMPS WILL NUDGE UP A FEW DEGREES BY THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
AS H5 RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER TX AND THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE TN/OH
VALLEYS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER WITH
10 TO 20 POPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 171122
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
622 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. A
WET...OCCASIONALLY STORMY...WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN HOLDING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
DOWN SOME. A TURN TO SUMMER HEAT AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
FOR TODAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW EXTENDING
FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO
CAUSE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 2 INCHES...THUS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LIFTED INDICES DECREASE TO BETWEEN
MINUS 6 AND MINUS 8 WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES BETWEEN 2000 AND 2800
J/KG. ALTHOUGH...MID LEVEL LAPSES RATES ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK FOR TODAY.
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH LATEST MODELS DO NOT INDICATE AS STRONG
OF A SHORT WAVE AS THEY DID IN EARLIER RUNS. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THUS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE.
THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME AROUND TO BEING IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH AS IT
PUSHES SOUTHWARD. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH TUESDAY...BUT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CONFINED TO NORTH MS. BETWEEN TODAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MOST
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AT LEAST BETWEEN ONE AND TWO
INCHES OF RAIN. ON WEDNESDAY...LEFT IN A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH MS AND A SMALL PORTION OF EAST CENTRAL AR AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST
WITH SUMMER HEAT RETURNING ALONG WITH MOSTLY RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AGAIN BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
TIMING. EXPECTING BEST COVERAGE TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AT ALL SITES WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING AT TUP INTO THE
EVENING...WHILE REMAINING IN VICINITY AT THE OTHER LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW OF THIS OCCURRING...AND SCATTERED STORMS
COULD EASILY CONTINUE AT THE SITES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH SOME LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS TO NEAR JBR.
WINDS THIS PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 4-8 KTS...WITH VARIABLE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN AND AROUND STORMS. WINDS WILL VEER
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AT JBR.
JAB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 88 72 86 71 / 70 70 60 10
MKL 87 69 84 67 / 70 70 60 10
JBR 88 70 87 69 / 70 70 40 10
TUP 88 72 86 70 / 70 70 70 30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 170903
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
403 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. A
WET...OCCASIONALLY STORMY...WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN HOLDING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
DOWN SOME. A TURN TO SUMMER HEAT AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
FOR TODAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW EXTENDING
FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO
CAUSE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 2 INCHES...THUS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LIFTED INDICES DECREASE TO BETWEEN
MINUS 6 AND MINUS 8 WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES BETWEEN 2000 AND 2800
J/KG. ALTHOUGH...MID LEVEL LAPSES RATES ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK FOR TODAY.
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH LATEST MODELS DO NOT INDICATE AS STRONG
OF A SHORT WAVE AS THEY DID IN EARLIER RUNS. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THUS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE.
THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME AROUND TO BEING IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH AS IT
PUSHES SOUTHWARD. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH TUESDAY...BUT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CONFINED TO NORTH MS. BETWEEN TODAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MOST
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AT LEAST BETWEEN ONE AND TWO
INCHES OF RAIN. ON WEDNESDAY...LEFT IN A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH MS AND A SMALL PORTION OF EAST CENTRAL AR AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST
WITH SUMMER HEAT RETURNING ALONG WITH MOSTLY RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. ONLY ONE STORM
COMPLEX IS OF CONCERN ON THE RADAR...IT MAY IMPACT MEM BETWEEN 09
AND 11Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL -1 STAY TOGETHER...AND
-2 MAINTAIN ITS EASTWARD TRACK. IT IT DOES AN HOUR OR TWO OF MVFR
TO IFR VIS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH TEMPORARY GUSTY WINDS...MOST
LIKELY FROM THE WEST. REMOVED MENTION OF TS AT ALL OTHER SITES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DUE TO
MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...BUT GENERALLY FROM
THE SOUTH. TOMORROW...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY
MIDDAY. INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL SITES. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL REDUCE
VIS AND MAY RESULT IN STRONG GUSTY WINDS...BUT PREVAILING CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 88 72 86 71 / 70 70 60 10
MKL 87 69 84 67 / 70 70 60 10
JBR 88 70 87 69 / 70 70 40 10
TUP 88 72 86 70 / 70 70 70 30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 170847
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
347 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WERE DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
MORNING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE AND INCREASE AS WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER ARKANSAS MOVES
TOWARD MIDDLE TN LATER TODAY. ALTHOUGH OVERALL AIRMASS IS WARMER
AND MORE MOIST THAN 24 HOURS AGO...INCREASING AREAS OF PRECIP PLUS
EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP MAX TEMPS FROM GETTING
ANY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...IE...WILL FORECAST 80S ALL AREAS
TODAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS ARE UNLIKELY DUE TO INSTABILITY BEING HELD IN CHECK BY
CLOUD COVER.
MODELS VARYING SOMEWHAT RUN TO RUN IN HANDLING SEVERAL WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW. CONSENSUS SEEMS TO POINT
TOWARD THE NEXT TWO SHORT WAVES ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT AND LATE
TUESDAY. THUS...WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT POPS FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK TROFS ACT ON A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. WILL TREND BACK QPF SOMEWHAT...IN AGREEMENT WITH MODELS
AND HPC.
ONE TRICKY ASPECT TO THIS FORECAST IS THE MOVEMENT OF THE WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD ARRIVE TUESDAY. MODELS SEEM A BIT SLOWER
WITH THIS FRONT. GFS ADVERTISES A BETTER DEFINED AND FASTER FRONT
THAN ECMWF/S FORECAST. WILL OPT FOR A BLEND OF THE TWO...AND
EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MID STATE DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AND THEN SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS LONG AS THE FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA. WILL ADD LOW POPS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN CASE FRONT SLOWS.
SHOULD BE RAIN FREE BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAX
TEMPS WILL NUDGE UP A FEW DEGREES BY THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
AS H5 RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER TX AND THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE TN/OH
VALLEYS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER WITH
10 TO 20 POPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 89 70 85 66 / 60 70 60 10
CLARKSVILLE 88 68 85 64 / 60 70 30 10
CROSSVILLE 83 65 79 62 / 60 70 70 10
COLUMBIA 89 70 86 66 / 70 80 60 10
LAWRENCEBURG 89 69 86 66 / 70 80 60 20
WAVERLY 88 68 85 64 / 60 70 40 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
49
000
FXUS64 KMRX 170842
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
442 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MODELS PERFORMED RATHER POORLY ON
THE BATCH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS NE
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT TO 330 AM EDT. APPEARS
THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS LAG BEFORE MORE CONVECTION
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AFTER SUNRISE. ALREADY SEEING EVIDENCE OF
THIS CONVECTION UPSTREAM OVER MIDDLE TN AND NE AL...SO AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT IN INCREASING POPS FOR LATER THIS MORNING.
SOUNDINGS ARE MORE UNSTABLE THIS MORNING THAN LATER TODAY...SO ADDED
AT LEAST A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWERED POPS GENERALLY TO
CHANCE NORTH...BUT KEPT LIKELY POPS OVER SE TN AND SW NC. THIS IS IN
LINE WITH NAM MODEL DEPICTION AND ALSO NEEDED TO BLEND BETTER WITH
FFC AND GSP FORECAST GRIDS.
FOR TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEEMS TO FINALLY SAG FURTHER SOUTH BY
12Z TUESDAY...WITH GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST MODELS ON THE NEXT
MAJOR WAVE OF CONVECTION APPROACHING LIKELY IN THE 06Z TO 12Z
TUESDAY PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK MORE UNSTABLE THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT...AS WELL AS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AFTER 06Z TUESDAY.
THUS...I HAVE POPS INCREASING AFTER 06Z TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED.
FOR TEMPS...JUST DON`T SEE MAX TEMPS GETTING NEAR THE GFS MOS VALUES
GIVEN THE ONGOING AND DEVELOPING CONVECTION. TRENDED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS MAX TEMP GRID...WHICH WAS VERY CLOSE TO THE COOLER NAM MOS
HIGHS. MOS MINS LOOKED FINE FOR TONIGHT AND WERE FOLLOWED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS STILL BRINGING MAJOR
SHORTWAVE INTO FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
AFFECT HIGHS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING
DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGHS BELOW GUIDANCE WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL HAVE FRONT
MOVING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.
STILL WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO TRIGGER MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PATTERN OF SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH STAYS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEHIND BOUNDARY WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH DEEPER MOISTURE STAYING SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS TRY TO STRENGTHEN RIDGE TO THE WEST AND GFS
TRIES TO DEVELOP WEAK UPPER LOW ALONG SOUTHEAST COAST ON THE
WEEKEND. THIS COULD INCREASE POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS BUT WILL
KEEP 20 TO 30 PERCENT AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 85 68 81 65 84 / 70 70 80 40 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 67 81 64 83 / 60 60 90 40 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 84 67 80 64 83 / 60 60 80 40 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 83 61 79 61 83 / 50 50 90 40 20
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TG/TD
| 
