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000
FXUS64 KMRX 230640
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
240 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  WEAK COOL ADVECTION
WILL BE OFFSET BY PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUN AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN
FOR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE DRY AIR AND LOW
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT OVERALL...AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE
EARLY AND ABOUT AVERAGE LATE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND
COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. INSTABILITY RATHER WEAK AND
FORCING NOT IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.  DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
OUR MAIN WEATHER FEATURES FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE
HWO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             74  45  77  58 /   0   0  10  70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  72  42  76  57 /   0   0   0  70
OAK RIDGE, TN                       72  42  76  57 /   0   0  10  70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              67  38  75  50 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB/LW



000
FXUS64 KMRX 230640
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
240 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  WEAK COOL ADVECTION
WILL BE OFFSET BY PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUN AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN
FOR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE DRY AIR AND LOW
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT OVERALL...AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE
EARLY AND ABOUT AVERAGE LATE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND
COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. INSTABILITY RATHER WEAK AND
FORCING NOT IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.  DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
OUR MAIN WEATHER FEATURES FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE
HWO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             74  45  77  58 /   0   0  10  70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  72  42  76  57 /   0   0   0  70
OAK RIDGE, TN                       72  42  76  57 /   0   0  10  70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              67  38  75  50 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB/LW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 230553
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
153 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND CLEARING SKIES...PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOCATIONS AND TRI MAY
SEE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z.  OTHERWISE...WEAK
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A DRY
AND WARM DAY WITH ONLY A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB



000
FXUS64 KMRX 230553
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
153 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND CLEARING SKIES...PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOCATIONS AND TRI MAY
SEE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z.  OTHERWISE...WEAK
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A DRY
AND WARM DAY WITH ONLY A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOHX 230457
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1157 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z TAFS...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AROUND ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM NW TO NE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND BECOME CALM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAFS...

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NNW THIS
EVENING AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO AROUND 06KT OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BEFORE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS MOVE IN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

UPDATE...
COUPLE OF SHOWERS EXITING CWA AT 2330Z AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN OVER
THE NORTH WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THIS WOULD BE
A GOOD FIRST GUESS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THINK FOR
NOW TEMP AND DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP PATCHY FOG AT
BAY ALONG WITH NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH DID INCLUDE PATCHY FOG
LATE NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A TAB ON THIS AND MAY HAVE TO UPDATE LATER
THIS EVENING BUT FOR NOW DONT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FOG HERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

WILL UPDATE ZONES/GRIDS TO REMOVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD
FROM FORECAST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

11




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMEG 230454
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1154 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATE PLANNED. TEMPERATURES AND WIND ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.
STILL THINK FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS.
SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABLE TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S IN MOST AREAS. TLSJR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH UNDER CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DEW POINTS IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI ARE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO EVEN LOWER 60S. AS TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT AND
WINDS TURN LIGHT...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TOMORROW
NIGHT...AND A TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S AT THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS. A LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY WILL BE
ENHANCED. GUIDANCE INSTABILITY INDICATES CAPE AS HIGH AS 1500
J/KG AND LI`S AS LOW AS -5 OR -6. INSTABILITY WITH THE PRESENCE OF
THE COLD FRONT BOTH SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW STRONG STORMS.  DYNAMIC
SUPPORT ALOFT DOESN`T LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT A FEW STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS LOOKS POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AROUND PEAK HEATING. AS THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...THE COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE
LOSES ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA AND SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ONCE
AGAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY EXT WEEK LOOK VERY INTERESTING. GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN BRINGING
DEEP TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A CUTOFF LOW WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND A ROUND OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY HAZARDS IN THE
HWO AT THIS TIME BUT IT IS DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS
5 TO 8 KTS...DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY END OF PERIOD.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 230251 CCA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
951 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

CORRECTED FOR GRAMMER MISTAKE

.DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATE PLANNED. TEMPERATURES AND WIND ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.
STILL THINK FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS.
SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABLE TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S IN MOST AREAS. TLSJR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH UNDER CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DEW POINTS IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI ARE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO EVEN LOWER 60S. AS TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT AND
WINDS TURN LIGHT...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TOMORROW
NIGHT...AND A TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S AT THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS. A LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY WILL BE
ENHANCED. GUIDANCE INSTABILITY INDICATES CAPE AS HIGH AS 1500
J/KG AND LI`S AS LOW AS -5 OR -6. INSTABILITY WITH THE PRESENCE OF
THE COLD FRONT BOTH SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW STRONG STORMS.  DYNAMIC
SUPPORT ALOFT DOESN`T LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT A FEW STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS LOOKS POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AROUND PEAK HEATING. AS THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...THE COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE
LOSES ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA AND SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ONCE
AGAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY EXT WEEK LOOK VERY INTERESTING. GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN BRINGING
DEEP TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A CUTOFF LOW WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND A ROUND OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY HAZARDS IN THE
HWO AT THIS TIME BUT IT IS DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS PICKING UP 8 TO 10 KTS OUT
OF THE EAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMEG 230238
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
938 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATE PLANNED. TEMPERATURES AND WIND ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.
STILL THINK IT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS.
SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABLE TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S IN MOST AREAS.  TLSJR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH UNDER CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DEW POINTS IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI ARE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO EVEN LOWER 60S. AS TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT AND
WINDS TURN LIGHT...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TOMORROW
NIGHT...AND A TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S AT THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS. A LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY WILL BE
ENHANCED. GUIDANCE INSTABILITY INDICATES CAPE AS HIGH AS 1500
J/KG AND LI`S AS LOW AS -5 OR -6. INSTABILITY WITH THE PRESENCE OF
THE COLD FRONT BOTH SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW STRONG STORMS.  DYNAMIC
SUPPORT ALOFT DOESN`T LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT A FEW STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS LOOKS POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AROUND PEAK HEATING. AS THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...THE COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE
LOSES ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA AND SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ONCE
AGAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY EXT WEEK LOOK VERY INTERESTING. GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN BRINGING
DEEP TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A CUTOFF LOW WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND A ROUND OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY HAZARDS IN THE
HWO AT THIS TIME BUT IT IS DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS PICKING UP 8 TO 10 KTS OUT
OF THE EAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 230042
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
742 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAFS...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NNW THIS
EVENING AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO AROUND 06KT OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BEFORE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS MOVE IN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

UPDATE...
COUPLE OF SHOWERS EXITING CWA AT 2330Z AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN OVER
THE NORTH WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THIS WOULD BE
A GOOD FIRST GUESS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THINK FOR
NOW TEMP AND DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP PATCHY FOG AT
BAY ALONG WITH NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH DID INCLUDE PATCHY FOG
LATE NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A TAB ON THIS AND MAY HAVE TO UPDATE LATER
THIS EVENING BUT FOR NOW DONT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FOG HERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

WILL UPDATE ZONES/GRIDS TO REMOVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD
FROM FORECAST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

11






000
FXUS64 KOHX 230042
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
742 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAFS...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NNW THIS
EVENING AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO AROUND 06KT OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BEFORE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS MOVE IN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

UPDATE...
COUPLE OF SHOWERS EXITING CWA AT 2330Z AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN OVER
THE NORTH WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THIS WOULD BE
A GOOD FIRST GUESS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THINK FOR
NOW TEMP AND DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP PATCHY FOG AT
BAY ALONG WITH NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH DID INCLUDE PATCHY FOG
LATE NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A TAB ON THIS AND MAY HAVE TO UPDATE LATER
THIS EVENING BUT FOR NOW DONT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FOG HERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

WILL UPDATE ZONES/GRIDS TO REMOVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD
FROM FORECAST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

11





000
FXUS64 KMRX 230005
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
805 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT ENTERING OUR VALLEY COUNTIES AT THIS TIME
WITH SOME LINGERING SPOTTY SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH SHORTLY IN LINE WITH FORECAST GRIDS HAVING LOW
POPS JUST THROUGH 02Z.

WILL UPDATE GRIDS TO DROP POPS BY 930 PM EDT OR SO...AND FRESHEN
HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW POINT TEMPS AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             47  72  45  78 /  20   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  46  70  43  77 /  10   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       43  70  43  77 /  10   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              40  68  39  75 /  20   0   0   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 230005
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
805 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT ENTERING OUR VALLEY COUNTIES AT THIS TIME
WITH SOME LINGERING SPOTTY SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH SHORTLY IN LINE WITH FORECAST GRIDS HAVING LOW
POPS JUST THROUGH 02Z.

WILL UPDATE GRIDS TO DROP POPS BY 930 PM EDT OR SO...AND FRESHEN
HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW POINT TEMPS AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             47  72  45  78 /  20   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  46  70  43  77 /  10   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       43  70  43  77 /  10   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              40  68  39  75 /  20   0   0   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG



000
FXUS64 KMEG 222339
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
639 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH UNDER CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DEW POINTS IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI ARE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO EVEN LOWER 60S. AS TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT AND
WINDS TURN LIGHT...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TOMORROW
NIGHT...AND A TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S AT THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS. A LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY WILL BE
ENHANCED. GUIDANCE INSTABILITY INDICATES CAPE AS HIGH AS 1500
J/KG AND LI`S AS LOW AS -5 OR -6. INSTABILITY WITH THE PRESENCE OF
THE COLD FRONT BOTH SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW STRONG STORMS.  DYNAMIC
SUPPORT ALOFT DOESN`T LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT A FEW STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS LOOKS POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AROUND PEAK HEATING. AS THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...THE COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE
LOSES ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA AND SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ONCE
AGAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY EXT WEEK LOOK VERY INTERESTING. GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN BRINGING
DEEP TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A CUTOFF LOW WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND A ROUND OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY HAZARDS IN THE
HWO AT THIS TIME BUT IT IS DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS PICKING UP 8 TO 10 KTS OUT
OF THE EAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KOHX 222337
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
637 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
COUPLE OF SHOWERS EXITING CWA AT 2330Z AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN OVER
THE NORTH WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THIS WOULD BE
A GOOD FIRST GUESS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THINK FOR
NOW TEMP AND DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP PATCHY FOG AT
BAY ALONG WITH NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH DID INCLUDE PATCHY FOG
LATE NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A TAB ON THIS AND MAY HAVE TO UPDATE LATER
THIS EVENING BUT FOR NOW DONT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FOG HERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

WILL UPDATE ZONES/GRIDS TO REMOVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD
FROM FORECAST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 222337
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
637 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
COUPLE OF SHOWERS EXITING CWA AT 2330Z AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN OVER
THE NORTH WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THIS WOULD BE
A GOOD FIRST GUESS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THINK FOR
NOW TEMP AND DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP PATCHY FOG AT
BAY ALONG WITH NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH DID INCLUDE PATCHY FOG
LATE NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A TAB ON THIS AND MAY HAVE TO UPDATE LATER
THIS EVENING BUT FOR NOW DONT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FOG HERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

WILL UPDATE ZONES/GRIDS TO REMOVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD
FROM FORECAST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KMRX 222323
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
723 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...SOME SCATTERED CU AND AC STILL TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
COOL FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN SPINE. THERE ARE A COUPLE
SHOWERS AROUND BUT ISOLATED NATURE AND LOSS OF HEATING KEEP
PROBABILITY OF AFFECTING A TERMINAL RATHER LOW. SHOULD BE A NICE
PERIOD FOR FLIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 222323
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
723 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...SOME SCATTERED CU AND AC STILL TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
COOL FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN SPINE. THERE ARE A COUPLE
SHOWERS AROUND BUT ISOLATED NATURE AND LOSS OF HEATING KEEP
PROBABILITY OF AFFECTING A TERMINAL RATHER LOW. SHOULD BE A NICE
PERIOD FOR FLIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 222323
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
723 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...SOME SCATTERED CU AND AC STILL TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
COOL FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN SPINE. THERE ARE A COUPLE
SHOWERS AROUND BUT ISOLATED NATURE AND LOSS OF HEATING KEEP
PROBABILITY OF AFFECTING A TERMINAL RATHER LOW. SHOULD BE A NICE
PERIOD FOR FLIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 222323
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
723 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...SOME SCATTERED CU AND AC STILL TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
COOL FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN SPINE. THERE ARE A COUPLE
SHOWERS AROUND BUT ISOLATED NATURE AND LOSS OF HEATING KEEP
PROBABILITY OF AFFECTING A TERMINAL RATHER LOW. SHOULD BE A NICE
PERIOD FOR FLIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 222029
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
329 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID STATE. THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WORK SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH. NEW UPCOMING
AIRMASS IS CARRYING SOME RATHER LOW DEW POINT VALUES WITH IT.
AIRMASS LOOKS QUITE DRY IN FACT AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SINGLE
DIGIT RH VALUES AT THE 850 MB LEVEL ON WEDNESDAY. COINCIDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM RATHER WELL ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL CREATE RATHER LARGE AFTERNOON DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS/LOW
RH VALUES.

LOW TEMPS OVER THE NEXT TWO MORNINGS WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS
NEAR 70S ON WEDNESDAY...AND WELL INTO THE 70S ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DEW POINTS
BEGIN TO INCREASE.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS BEING POSSIBLE. DEEP BUT NARROW MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT
IS INDICATED ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED FROPA. THEREFORE...ROUGHLY 50
POPS WILL BE INCLUDED.

IN THE EXT FCST...SFC RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A FEW DRY DAYS OVER THE
WEEKEND. THEN...A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING IN AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS. LATEST GFS BRINGS A SFC LOW ACROSS IL
WITH A SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT. INSTABILITIES ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY...CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALSO...SOME OF
THE STRONGEST SFC CAPES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SEASON MAY BE UPON US. ALL
IN ALL...WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG TO
SEVERE WX ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...DIURNAL SPREADS TO LOWER WITH TIME AS THE RH
FIELDS INCREASE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER MILD BY LATE IN THE
EXTENDED AS A PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN.


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      44  71  44  78 /   0   0   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    42  70  43  79 /   0   0   0  20
CROSSVILLE     41  68  40  73 /  10   0   0  05
COLUMBIA       45  73  44  79 /   0   0   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   45  74  43  80 /   0   0   0  10
WAVERLY        43  71  44  79 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KOHX 222029
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
329 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID STATE. THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WORK SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH. NEW UPCOMING
AIRMASS IS CARRYING SOME RATHER LOW DEW POINT VALUES WITH IT.
AIRMASS LOOKS QUITE DRY IN FACT AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SINGLE
DIGIT RH VALUES AT THE 850 MB LEVEL ON WEDNESDAY. COINCIDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM RATHER WELL ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL CREATE RATHER LARGE AFTERNOON DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS/LOW
RH VALUES.

LOW TEMPS OVER THE NEXT TWO MORNINGS WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS
NEAR 70S ON WEDNESDAY...AND WELL INTO THE 70S ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DEW POINTS
BEGIN TO INCREASE.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS BEING POSSIBLE. DEEP BUT NARROW MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT
IS INDICATED ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED FROPA. THEREFORE...ROUGHLY 50
POPS WILL BE INCLUDED.

IN THE EXT FCST...SFC RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A FEW DRY DAYS OVER THE
WEEKEND. THEN...A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING IN AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS. LATEST GFS BRINGS A SFC LOW ACROSS IL
WITH A SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT. INSTABILITIES ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY...CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALSO...SOME OF
THE STRONGEST SFC CAPES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SEASON MAY BE UPON US. ALL
IN ALL...WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG TO
SEVERE WX ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...DIURNAL SPREADS TO LOWER WITH TIME AS THE RH
FIELDS INCREASE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER MILD BY LATE IN THE
EXTENDED AS A PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN.


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      44  71  44  78 /   0   0   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    42  70  43  79 /   0   0   0  20
CROSSVILLE     41  68  40  73 /  10   0   0  05
COLUMBIA       45  73  44  79 /   0   0   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   45  74  43  80 /   0   0   0  10
WAVERLY        43  71  44  79 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KOHX 222029
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
329 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID STATE. THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WORK SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH. NEW UPCOMING
AIRMASS IS CARRYING SOME RATHER LOW DEW POINT VALUES WITH IT.
AIRMASS LOOKS QUITE DRY IN FACT AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SINGLE
DIGIT RH VALUES AT THE 850 MB LEVEL ON WEDNESDAY. COINCIDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM RATHER WELL ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL CREATE RATHER LARGE AFTERNOON DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS/LOW
RH VALUES.

LOW TEMPS OVER THE NEXT TWO MORNINGS WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS
NEAR 70S ON WEDNESDAY...AND WELL INTO THE 70S ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DEW POINTS
BEGIN TO INCREASE.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS BEING POSSIBLE. DEEP BUT NARROW MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT
IS INDICATED ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED FROPA. THEREFORE...ROUGHLY 50
POPS WILL BE INCLUDED.

IN THE EXT FCST...SFC RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A FEW DRY DAYS OVER THE
WEEKEND. THEN...A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING IN AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS. LATEST GFS BRINGS A SFC LOW ACROSS IL
WITH A SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT. INSTABILITIES ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY...CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALSO...SOME OF
THE STRONGEST SFC CAPES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SEASON MAY BE UPON US. ALL
IN ALL...WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG TO
SEVERE WX ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...DIURNAL SPREADS TO LOWER WITH TIME AS THE RH
FIELDS INCREASE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER MILD BY LATE IN THE
EXTENDED AS A PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN.


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      44  71  44  78 /   0   0   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    42  70  43  79 /   0   0   0  20
CROSSVILLE     41  68  40  73 /  10   0   0  05
COLUMBIA       45  73  44  79 /   0   0   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   45  74  43  80 /   0   0   0  10
WAVERLY        43  71  44  79 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KOHX 222029
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
329 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID STATE. THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WORK SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH. NEW UPCOMING
AIRMASS IS CARRYING SOME RATHER LOW DEW POINT VALUES WITH IT.
AIRMASS LOOKS QUITE DRY IN FACT AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SINGLE
DIGIT RH VALUES AT THE 850 MB LEVEL ON WEDNESDAY. COINCIDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM RATHER WELL ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL CREATE RATHER LARGE AFTERNOON DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS/LOW
RH VALUES.

LOW TEMPS OVER THE NEXT TWO MORNINGS WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS
NEAR 70S ON WEDNESDAY...AND WELL INTO THE 70S ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DEW POINTS
BEGIN TO INCREASE.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS BEING POSSIBLE. DEEP BUT NARROW MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT
IS INDICATED ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED FROPA. THEREFORE...ROUGHLY 50
POPS WILL BE INCLUDED.

IN THE EXT FCST...SFC RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A FEW DRY DAYS OVER THE
WEEKEND. THEN...A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING IN AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS. LATEST GFS BRINGS A SFC LOW ACROSS IL
WITH A SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT. INSTABILITIES ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY...CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALSO...SOME OF
THE STRONGEST SFC CAPES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SEASON MAY BE UPON US. ALL
IN ALL...WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG TO
SEVERE WX ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...DIURNAL SPREADS TO LOWER WITH TIME AS THE RH
FIELDS INCREASE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER MILD BY LATE IN THE
EXTENDED AS A PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN.


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      44  71  44  78 /   0   0   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    42  70  43  79 /   0   0   0  20
CROSSVILLE     41  68  40  73 /  10   0   0  05
COLUMBIA       45  73  44  79 /   0   0   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   45  74  43  80 /   0   0   0  10
WAVERLY        43  71  44  79 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KMEG 222029
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
329 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH UNDER CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DEW POINTS IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI ARE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO EVEN LOWER 60S. AS TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT AND
WINDS TURN LIGHT...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TOMORROW
NIGHT...AND A TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S AT THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS. A LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY WILL BE
ENHANCED. GUIDANCE INSTABILITY INDICATES CAPE AS HIGH AS 1500
J/KG AND LI`S AS LOW AS -5 OR -6. INSTABILITY WITH THE PRESENCE OF
THE COLD FRONT BOTH SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW STRONG STORMS.  DYNAMIC
SUPPORT ALOFT DOESN`T LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT A FEW STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS LOOKS POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AROUND PEAK HEATING. AS THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...THE COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE
LOSES ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA AND SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ONCE
AGAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY EXT WEEK LOOK VERY INTERESTING. GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN BRINGING
DEEP TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A CUTOFF LOW WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND A ROUND OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY HAZARDS IN THE
HWO AT THIS TIME BUT IT IS DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON SO AREAS THAT CURRENTLY HAVE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AT AROUND 10
KNOTS THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND INCREASING BY LATE MORNING.

ARS


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMRX 221911
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
311 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WAS CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING OUT OF IT A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT HAD MOVED
INTO THE EASTERN OH VALLEY AND WAS DIFFUSE ACROSS CENTRAL TN AND
THEN EXTENDED SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL LA. AIR MASS WAS BECOMING
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT ACTIVITY WAS BECOMING
WIDELY SCATTERED. MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS WERE FORMING NEAR
CHATTANOOGA AND TO THE WEST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS SO FAR TODAY AND ONLY ABOUT ONE TENTH AS
AN AVERAGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WERE VARIED IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WHERE
SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING TO MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. STILL
COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE SKIES CLEARING THIS EVENING THEN
SUNNY AND COOL AGAIN WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COULD DIP
BELOW 40 FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST VA
AND EASTERN TN BUT NO SIGNIFICANT FROST EXPECTED. WITH SOME COLD
AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY IT WILL BE BREEZY AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES MAY DROP TO 20 TO 25 PERCENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL
HEADLINE LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AND
MAY NEED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED EARLY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND GENERALLY REVEAL A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TN
RIVER VALLEY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING
SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF IT. THIS COLD
FRONT SHOULD THEN STALL OUT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ON SATURDAY...AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN PROGGED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY... AND MAY LINGER SOMEWHERE
AROUND THE TN RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS THEN PROGGED TO FURTHER AMPLIFY
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD
EARLY NEXT WEEK...DEVELOPING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE
EXACT TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT IT WILL
BRING STRONG DYNAMICS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE
STORMS. THUS...WILL BEGIN TO MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL GENERALLY TREND
TOWARDS THE GFS NUMBERS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH ARE
IN LINE WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             47  72  45  78 /  20   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  46  70  43  77 /  10   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       43  70  43  77 /  10   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              40  68  39  75 /  20   0   0   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD/DMG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 221911
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
311 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WAS CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING OUT OF IT A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT HAD MOVED
INTO THE EASTERN OH VALLEY AND WAS DIFFUSE ACROSS CENTRAL TN AND
THEN EXTENDED SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL LA. AIR MASS WAS BECOMING
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT ACTIVITY WAS BECOMING
WIDELY SCATTERED. MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS WERE FORMING NEAR
CHATTANOOGA AND TO THE WEST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS SO FAR TODAY AND ONLY ABOUT ONE TENTH AS
AN AVERAGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WERE VARIED IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WHERE
SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING TO MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. STILL
COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE SKIES CLEARING THIS EVENING THEN
SUNNY AND COOL AGAIN WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COULD DIP
BELOW 40 FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST VA
AND EASTERN TN BUT NO SIGNIFICANT FROST EXPECTED. WITH SOME COLD
AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY IT WILL BE BREEZY AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES MAY DROP TO 20 TO 25 PERCENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL
HEADLINE LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AND
MAY NEED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED EARLY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND GENERALLY REVEAL A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TN
RIVER VALLEY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING
SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF IT. THIS COLD
FRONT SHOULD THEN STALL OUT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ON SATURDAY...AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN PROGGED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY... AND MAY LINGER SOMEWHERE
AROUND THE TN RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS THEN PROGGED TO FURTHER AMPLIFY
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD
EARLY NEXT WEEK...DEVELOPING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE
EXACT TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT IT WILL
BRING STRONG DYNAMICS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE
STORMS. THUS...WILL BEGIN TO MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL GENERALLY TREND
TOWARDS THE GFS NUMBERS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH ARE
IN LINE WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             47  72  45  78 /  20   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  46  70  43  77 /  10   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       43  70  43  77 /  10   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              40  68  39  75 /  20   0   0   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD/DMG



000
FXUS64 KOHX 221757 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1254 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS THRU 23/18Z BNA/CKV WITH A QUICK TRANSITION TO EROSION
OF CEILINGS WITH VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 23/00Z AS RIDGING INFLUENCES
SFC/ALOFT BUILD ACROSS REGION. FOR CSV...A MUCH SLOWER TRANSITION TO
VFR/SKC EXPECTED WITH TEMPO LIFR CEILINGS DUE TO LIGHT RAINFALL WITH
PREVALENT MVFR VSBYS/CEILINGS THRU 22/22Z AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEHIND
SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED AROUND 20/20Z. BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE ALSO...
PER LOW LEVEL MIXING INFLUENCES EXPECTED...SOME GUSTS TO 20-22KTS
POSSIBLE THRU 23/02Z-23/03Z. WITH PREVALENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
EXPECTED...SKC CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS...IFR FOG 23/06Z-23/15Z CSV.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO BE COMMON OVER THE AREA
THROUGH 18Z, WITH LOCAL IFR AT CSV. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS TREND TOWARD VFR, WEST TO EAST, BTWN 18Z AND 00Z/23, AS
DRIER AIR SPREADS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON GUSTY NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH
SURFACE WINDS.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
31








000
FXUS64 KOHX 221757 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1254 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS THRU 23/18Z BNA/CKV WITH A QUICK TRANSITION TO EROSION
OF CEILINGS WITH VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 23/00Z AS RIDGING INFLUENCES
SFC/ALOFT BUILD ACROSS REGION. FOR CSV...A MUCH SLOWER TRANSITION TO
VFR/SKC EXPECTED WITH TEMPO LIFR CEILINGS DUE TO LIGHT RAINFALL WITH
PREVALENT MVFR VSBYS/CEILINGS THRU 22/22Z AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEHIND
SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED AROUND 20/20Z. BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE ALSO...
PER LOW LEVEL MIXING INFLUENCES EXPECTED...SOME GUSTS TO 20-22KTS
POSSIBLE THRU 23/02Z-23/03Z. WITH PREVALENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
EXPECTED...SKC CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS...IFR FOG 23/06Z-23/15Z CSV.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO BE COMMON OVER THE AREA
THROUGH 18Z, WITH LOCAL IFR AT CSV. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS TREND TOWARD VFR, WEST TO EAST, BTWN 18Z AND 00Z/23, AS
DRIER AIR SPREADS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON GUSTY NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH
SURFACE WINDS.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
31








000
FXUS64 KOHX 221757 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1254 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS THRU 23/18Z BNA/CKV WITH A QUICK TRANSITION TO EROSION
OF CEILINGS WITH VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 23/00Z AS RIDGING INFLUENCES
SFC/ALOFT BUILD ACROSS REGION. FOR CSV...A MUCH SLOWER TRANSITION TO
VFR/SKC EXPECTED WITH TEMPO LIFR CEILINGS DUE TO LIGHT RAINFALL WITH
PREVALENT MVFR VSBYS/CEILINGS THRU 22/22Z AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEHIND
SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED AROUND 20/20Z. BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE ALSO...
PER LOW LEVEL MIXING INFLUENCES EXPECTED...SOME GUSTS TO 20-22KTS
POSSIBLE THRU 23/02Z-23/03Z. WITH PREVALENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
EXPECTED...SKC CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS...IFR FOG 23/06Z-23/15Z CSV.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO BE COMMON OVER THE AREA
THROUGH 18Z, WITH LOCAL IFR AT CSV. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS TREND TOWARD VFR, WEST TO EAST, BTWN 18Z AND 00Z/23, AS
DRIER AIR SPREADS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON GUSTY NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH
SURFACE WINDS.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
31








000
FXUS64 KOHX 221757 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1254 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS THRU 23/18Z BNA/CKV WITH A QUICK TRANSITION TO EROSION
OF CEILINGS WITH VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 23/00Z AS RIDGING INFLUENCES
SFC/ALOFT BUILD ACROSS REGION. FOR CSV...A MUCH SLOWER TRANSITION TO
VFR/SKC EXPECTED WITH TEMPO LIFR CEILINGS DUE TO LIGHT RAINFALL WITH
PREVALENT MVFR VSBYS/CEILINGS THRU 22/22Z AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEHIND
SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED AROUND 20/20Z. BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE ALSO...
PER LOW LEVEL MIXING INFLUENCES EXPECTED...SOME GUSTS TO 20-22KTS
POSSIBLE THRU 23/02Z-23/03Z. WITH PREVALENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
EXPECTED...SKC CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS...IFR FOG 23/06Z-23/15Z CSV.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO BE COMMON OVER THE AREA
THROUGH 18Z, WITH LOCAL IFR AT CSV. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS TREND TOWARD VFR, WEST TO EAST, BTWN 18Z AND 00Z/23, AS
DRIER AIR SPREADS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON GUSTY NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH
SURFACE WINDS.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
31








000
FXUS64 KOHX 221754 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1254 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS THRU 23/18Z BNA/CKV WITH A QUICK TRANSITION TO ERROSION
OF CEILINGS WITH VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 23/00Z AS RIDGING INFLUENCES
SFC/ALOFT BUILD ACROSS REGION. FOR CSV...A MUCH SLOWER TRANSITION TO
VFR/SKC EXPECTED WITH TEMPO LIFR CEILINGS DUE TO LIGHT RAINFALL WITH
PREVALENT MVFR VSBYS/CEILINGS THRU 22/22Z AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEHIND
SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED AROUND 20/20Z. BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE ALSO...
PER LOW LEVEL MIXING INFLUENCES EXPECTED...SOME GUSTS TO 20-22KTS POSSIBLE
THRU 23/02Z-23/03Z. WITH PREVALENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING EXPECTED...
SKC CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS...IFR FOG POSSIBLE 23/06Z-23/15Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO BE COMMON OVER THE AREA
THROUGH 18Z, WITH LOCAL IFR AT CSV. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS TREND TOWARD VFR, WEST TO EAST, BTWN 18Z AND 00Z/23, AS
DRIER AIR SPREADS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON GUSTY NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH
SURFACE WINDS.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 221754 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1254 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS THRU 23/18Z BNA/CKV WITH A QUICK TRANSITION TO ERROSION
OF CEILINGS WITH VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 23/00Z AS RIDGING INFLUENCES
SFC/ALOFT BUILD ACROSS REGION. FOR CSV...A MUCH SLOWER TRANSITION TO
VFR/SKC EXPECTED WITH TEMPO LIFR CEILINGS DUE TO LIGHT RAINFALL WITH
PREVALENT MVFR VSBYS/CEILINGS THRU 22/22Z AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEHIND
SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED AROUND 20/20Z. BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE ALSO...
PER LOW LEVEL MIXING INFLUENCES EXPECTED...SOME GUSTS TO 20-22KTS POSSIBLE
THRU 23/02Z-23/03Z. WITH PREVALENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING EXPECTED...
SKC CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS...IFR FOG POSSIBLE 23/06Z-23/15Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO BE COMMON OVER THE AREA
THROUGH 18Z, WITH LOCAL IFR AT CSV. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS TREND TOWARD VFR, WEST TO EAST, BTWN 18Z AND 00Z/23, AS
DRIER AIR SPREADS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON GUSTY NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH
SURFACE WINDS.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
31





000
FXUS64 KMEG 221736
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1236 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.

RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE MIDSOUTH...AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE
BY NOON. SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MID
LEVEL RIDGING WILL LIKELY PREVENT MUCH IF ANY. WITH THAT IN MIND
LOWERED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF SO WARMER THAN THEY ARE
CURRENTLY...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

CURRENTLY SKIES WERE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WITH RADAR SHOWING THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF RAINFALL OVER
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM WERE IN THE LOW TO MID
60S WITH LIGHT WINDS MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

FOR TODAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND WITH CAPE VALUES OF NEAR
500 J/KG OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AN ISOLATED CLAP OF THUNDER
CAN`T BE RULED OUT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. SOME PATCHY
RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONAL.

AFTER A COOL START WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY NICE
SPRING DAY. PERHAPS IN THE TOP TEN FOR THE YEAR...AS SKIES WILL BE
SUNNY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70`S...WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...AND RH`S WILL DIP TO NEAR 40 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS MODELS
INDICATE A DEVELOPING FAST MOVING STORM IN THE PLAINS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A DESCENDING COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING THE NEXT
THREAT FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. RETURN MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE GULF
SUGGESTS A PLUME OF LOW 60 DEWPOINTS WILL SURGE AS FAR NORTH AS
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS FUEL COUPLED WITH
30 TO 60 METER HEIGHT FALLS AS THE TAIL END OF THE SHORTWAVE
SWINGS THROUGH WILL PRODUCE CAPE VALUES IN THE 500 TO 1200 J/KG
RANGE. SO HAVE ADDED A FEW STRONG STORMS FOR NOW IN THE HWO.
FUTURE FORECASTS THOUGH WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY SEVERE
THREAT. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SAME
TIME THE COLD FRONT ISN`T EXPECTED TO GET TO FAR SOUTH OF THE
CWA...AS THE UPPER FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ZONAL FRIDAY. THEREFORE
FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND PLEASANT...WITH 60+ DEWPOINTS
LURKING IN THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THIS PERIOD APPEARS MOSTLY DRY
INITIALLY...BUT BECOMING VERY ACTIVE FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST A STRONGER STORM EVOLVING IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A DEEPER TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY
BECOMING A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE MIDSOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE FRONT SIDE OF THIS ENERGY SUGGESTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER HUMIDITY...WITH AN EVER INCREASING CHANCE FOR
STORMS...OF WHICH SOME MAY BE SEVERE. A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...TAKING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON SO AREAS THAT CURRENTLY HAVE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AT AROUND 10
KNOTS THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND INCREASING BY LATE MORNING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMRX 221721
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
121 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ARE JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO MIDDLE
TN. TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWER CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES
NEXT FEW HOURS AT CHA AND TRI WITH A STRONGER SHOWER. REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE INSTABILITY TOO LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH END OF FORECAST. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR AFTER SUNSET. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM DURING EARLY MORNING DUE TO
TODAYS SHOWERS. BUT TOO EARLY TO FORECAST AT ANY SITE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 221721
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
121 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ARE JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO MIDDLE
TN. TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWER CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES
NEXT FEW HOURS AT CHA AND TRI WITH A STRONGER SHOWER. REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE INSTABILITY TOO LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH END OF FORECAST. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR AFTER SUNSET. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM DURING EARLY MORNING DUE TO
TODAYS SHOWERS. BUT TOO EARLY TO FORECAST AT ANY SITE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 221721
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
121 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ARE JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO MIDDLE
TN. TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWER CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES
NEXT FEW HOURS AT CHA AND TRI WITH A STRONGER SHOWER. REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE INSTABILITY TOO LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH END OF FORECAST. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR AFTER SUNSET. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM DURING EARLY MORNING DUE TO
TODAYS SHOWERS. BUT TOO EARLY TO FORECAST AT ANY SITE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 221721
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
121 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ARE JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO MIDDLE
TN. TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWER CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES
NEXT FEW HOURS AT CHA AND TRI WITH A STRONGER SHOWER. REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE INSTABILITY TOO LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH END OF FORECAST. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR AFTER SUNSET. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM DURING EARLY MORNING DUE TO
TODAYS SHOWERS. BUT TOO EARLY TO FORECAST AT ANY SITE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 221521
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1121 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OHIO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL KY AND INTO WEST TN LATE THIS MORNING. AREA RADARS
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL EAST TENNEESSEE AND SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE.
TEMPERATURES ARE VARYING DEPENDING ON SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 60S. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S. MOISTURE ADVECTION IS BRINGING MOISTURE LEVELS UP IN
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. JUST IN THE PAST HOUR DEW POINTS HAVE
COME UP IN NE SECTIONS TOO. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING WITH THE BEST CHANCES WESTERN
AREAS NEXT FEW HOURS AND MID AFTERNOON EASTERN SECTIONS.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BUT ISOLATED AS INSTABILITY IS LACKING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY ONLY BE AROUND A TENTH OR SO BUT COULD BE
ONE QUARTER INCH OR MORE IF AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. UPDATED FORECAST TO CHANGE TIMING SLIGHTLY FOR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD



000
FXUS64 KMRX 221521
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1121 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OHIO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL KY AND INTO WEST TN LATE THIS MORNING. AREA RADARS
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL EAST TENNEESSEE AND SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE.
TEMPERATURES ARE VARYING DEPENDING ON SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 60S. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S. MOISTURE ADVECTION IS BRINGING MOISTURE LEVELS UP IN
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. JUST IN THE PAST HOUR DEW POINTS HAVE
COME UP IN NE SECTIONS TOO. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING WITH THE BEST CHANCES WESTERN
AREAS NEXT FEW HOURS AND MID AFTERNOON EASTERN SECTIONS.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BUT ISOLATED AS INSTABILITY IS LACKING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY ONLY BE AROUND A TENTH OR SO BUT COULD BE
ONE QUARTER INCH OR MORE IF AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. UPDATED FORECAST TO CHANGE TIMING SLIGHTLY FOR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD



000
FXUS64 KMRX 221521
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1121 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OHIO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL KY AND INTO WEST TN LATE THIS MORNING. AREA RADARS
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL EAST TENNEESSEE AND SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE.
TEMPERATURES ARE VARYING DEPENDING ON SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 60S. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S. MOISTURE ADVECTION IS BRINGING MOISTURE LEVELS UP IN
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. JUST IN THE PAST HOUR DEW POINTS HAVE
COME UP IN NE SECTIONS TOO. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING WITH THE BEST CHANCES WESTERN
AREAS NEXT FEW HOURS AND MID AFTERNOON EASTERN SECTIONS.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BUT ISOLATED AS INSTABILITY IS LACKING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY ONLY BE AROUND A TENTH OR SO BUT COULD BE
ONE QUARTER INCH OR MORE IF AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. UPDATED FORECAST TO CHANGE TIMING SLIGHTLY FOR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD



000
FXUS64 KMRX 221521
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1121 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OHIO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL KY AND INTO WEST TN LATE THIS MORNING. AREA RADARS
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL EAST TENNEESSEE AND SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE.
TEMPERATURES ARE VARYING DEPENDING ON SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 60S. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S. MOISTURE ADVECTION IS BRINGING MOISTURE LEVELS UP IN
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. JUST IN THE PAST HOUR DEW POINTS HAVE
COME UP IN NE SECTIONS TOO. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING WITH THE BEST CHANCES WESTERN
AREAS NEXT FEW HOURS AND MID AFTERNOON EASTERN SECTIONS.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BUT ISOLATED AS INSTABILITY IS LACKING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY ONLY BE AROUND A TENTH OR SO BUT COULD BE
ONE QUARTER INCH OR MORE IF AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. UPDATED FORECAST TO CHANGE TIMING SLIGHTLY FOR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD



000
FXUS64 KMEG 221443
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
943 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.

RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE MIDSOUTH...AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE
BY NOON. SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MID
LEVEL RIDGING WILL LIKELY PREVENT MUCH IF ANY. WITH THAT IN MIND
LOWERED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF SO WARMER THAN THEY ARE
CURRENTLY...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/


CURRENTLY SKIES WERE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WITH RADAR SHOWING THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF RAINFALL OVER
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM WERE IN THE LOW TO MID
60S WITH LIGHT WINDS MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

FOR TODAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND WITH CAPE VALUES OF NEAR
500 J/KG OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AN ISOLATED CLAP OF THUNDER
CAN`T BE RULED OUT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. SOME PATCHY
RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONAL.

AFTER A COOL START WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY NICE
SPRING DAY. PERHAPS IN THE TOP TEN FOR THE YEAR...AS SKIES WILL BE
SUNNY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70`S...WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...AND RH`S WILL DIP TO NEAR 40 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS MODELS
INDICATE A DEVELOPING FAST MOVING STORM IN THE PLAINS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A DESCENDING COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING THE NEXT
THREAT FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. RETURN MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE GULF
SUGGESTS A PLUME OF LOW 60 DEWPOINTS WILL SURGE AS FAR NORTH AS
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS FUEL COUPLED WITH
30 TO 60 METER HEIGHT FALLS AS THE TAIL END OF THE SHORTWAVE
SWINGS THROUGH WILL PRODUCE CAPE VALUES IN THE 500 TO 1200 J/KG
RANGE. SO HAVE ADDED A FEW STRONG STORMS FOR NOW IN THE HWO.
FUTURE FORECASTS THOUGH WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY SEVERE
THREAT. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SAME
TIME THE COLD FRONT ISN`T EXPECTED TO GET TO FAR SOUTH OF THE
CWA...AS THE UPPER FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ZONAL FRIDAY. THEREFORE
FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND PLEASANT...WITH 60+ DEWPOINTS
LURKING IN THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THIS PERIOD APPEARS MOSTLY DRY
INITIALLY...BUT BECOMING VERY ACTIVE FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST A STRONGER STORM EVOLVING IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A DEEPER TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY
BECOMING A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE MIDSOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE FRONT SIDE OF THIS ENERGY SUGGESTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER HUMIDITY...WITH AN EVER INCREASING CHANCE FOR
STORMS...OF WHICH SOME MAY BE SEVERE. A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...TAKING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (22/12Z-23/12Z)

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THIS MORNING AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KTUP ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND
DAYTIME HEATING MENTIONED VCTS AT KTUP BETWEEN 22/16Z AND 22/21Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS INCREASING FROM THE NORTH TODAY
BECOMING 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18 KTS AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KJBR.
NE WINDS TONIGHT DIMINISHING TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 221154 CCA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
616 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

CURRENTLY SKIES WERE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WITH RADAR SHOWING THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF RAINFALL OVER
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM WERE IN THE LOW TO MID
60S WITH LIGHT WINDS MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

FOR TODAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND WITH CAPE VALUES OF NEAR
500 J/KG OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AN ISOLATED CLAP OF THUNDER
CAN`T BE RULED OUT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. SOME PATCHY
RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONAL.

AFTER A COOL START WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY NICE
SPRING DAY. PERHAPS IN THE TOP TEN FOR THE YEAR...AS SKIES WILL BE
SUNNY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70`S...WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...AND RH`S WILL DIP TO NEAR 40 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS MODELS
INDICATE A DEVELOPING FAST MOVING STORM IN THE PLAINS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A DESCENDING COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING THE NEXT
THREAT FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. RETURN MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE GULF
SUGGESTS A PLUME OF LOW 60 DEWPOINTS WILL SURGE AS FAR NORTH AS
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS FUEL COUPLED WITH
30 TO 60 METER HEIGHT FALLS AS THE TAIL END OF THE SHORTWAVE
SWINGS THROUGH WILL PRODUCE CAPE VALUES IN THE 500 TO 1200 J/KG
RANGE. SO HAVE ADDED A FEW STRONG STORMS FOR NOW IN THE HWO.
FUTURE FORECASTS THOUGH WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY SEVERE
THREAT. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SAME
TIME THE COLD FRONT ISN`T EXPECTED TO GET TO FAR SOUTH OF THE
CWA...AS THE UPPER FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ZONAL FRIDAY. THEREFORE
FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND PLEASANT...WITH 60+ DEWPOINTS
LURKING IN THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THIS PERIOD APPEARS MOSTLY DRY
INITIALLY...BUT BECOMING VERY ACTIVE FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST A STRONGER STORM EVOLVING IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A DEEPER TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY
BECOMING A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE MIDSOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE FRONT SIDE OF THIS ENERGY SUGGESTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER HUMIDITY...WITH AN EVER INCREASING CHANCE FOR
STORMS...OF WHICH SOME MAY BE SEVERE. A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...TAKING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (22/12Z-23/12Z)

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THIS MORNING AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KTUP ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND
DAYTIME HEATING MENTIONED VCTS AT KTUP BETWEEN 22/16Z AND 22/21Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS INCREASING FROM THE NORTH TODAY
BECOMING 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18 KTS AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KJBR.
NE WINDS TONIGHT DIMINISHING TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMRX 221124
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
724 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TODAY...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. SOME SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY
WITH A HEAVIER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. EXPECT CLEARING LATE IN THE
PERIOD.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 221124
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
724 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TODAY...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. SOME SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY
WITH A HEAVIER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. EXPECT CLEARING LATE IN THE
PERIOD.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW



000
FXUS64 KOHX 221121
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
621 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO BE COMMON OVER THE AREA
THROUGH 18Z, WITH LOCAL IFR AT CSV. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS TREND TOWARD VFR, WEST TO EAST, BTWN 18Z AND 00Z/23, AS
DRIER AIR SPREADS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON GUSTY NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH
SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 221121
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
621 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO BE COMMON OVER THE AREA
THROUGH 18Z, WITH LOCAL IFR AT CSV. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS TREND TOWARD VFR, WEST TO EAST, BTWN 18Z AND 00Z/23, AS
DRIER AIR SPREADS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON GUSTY NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH
SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 221121
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
621 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO BE COMMON OVER THE AREA
THROUGH 18Z, WITH LOCAL IFR AT CSV. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS TREND TOWARD VFR, WEST TO EAST, BTWN 18Z AND 00Z/23, AS
DRIER AIR SPREADS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON GUSTY NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH
SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 221121
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
621 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO BE COMMON OVER THE AREA
THROUGH 18Z, WITH LOCAL IFR AT CSV. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS TREND TOWARD VFR, WEST TO EAST, BTWN 18Z AND 00Z/23, AS
DRIER AIR SPREADS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON GUSTY NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH
SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KMEG 221116 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
616 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

CURRENTLY SKIES WERE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WITH RADAR SHOWING THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF RAINFALL OVER
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM WERE IN THE LOW TO MID
60S WITH LIGHT WINDS MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

FOR TODAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND WITH CAPE VALUES OF NEAR
500 J/KG OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AN ISOLATED CLAP OF THUNDER
CAN`T BE RULED OUT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. SOME PATCHY
RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONAL.

AFTER A COOL START WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY NICE
SPRING DAY. PERHAPS IN THE TOP TEN FOR THE YEAR...AS SKIES WILL BE
SUNNY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70`S...WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...AND RH`S WILL DIP TO NEAR 40 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS MODELS
INDICATE A DEVELOPING FAST MOVING STORM IN THE PLAINS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A DESCENDING COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING THE NEXT
THREAT FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. RETURN MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE GULF
SUGGESTS A PLUME OF LOW 60 DEWPOINTS WILL SURGE AS FAR NORTH AS
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS FUEL COUPLED WITH
30 TO 60 METER HEIGHT FALLS AS THE TAIL END OF THE SHORTWAVE
SWINGS THROUGH WILL PRODUCE CAPE VALUES IN THE 500 TO 1200 J/KG
RANGE. SO HAVE ADDED A FEW STRONG STORMS FOR NOW IN THE HWO.
FUTURE FORECASTS THOUGH WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY SEVERE
THREAT. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SAME
TIME THE COLD FRONT ISN`T EXPECTED TO GET TO FAR SOUTH OF THE
CWA...AS THE UPPER FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ZONAL FRIDAY. THEREFORE
FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND PLEASANT...WITH 60+ DEWPOINTS
LURKING IN THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THIS PERIOD APPEARS MOSTLY DRY
INITIALLY...BUT BECOMING VERY ACTIVE FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST A STRONGER STORM EVOLVING IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A DEEPER TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY
BECOMING A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE MIDSOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE FRONT SIDE OF THIS ENERGY SUGGESTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER HUMIDITY...WITH AN EVER INCREASING CHANCE FOR
STORMS...OF WHICH SOME MAY BE SEVERE. A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...TAKING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (22/12Z-23/12Z)

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THIS MORNING AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KTUP ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND
DAYTIME HEATING MENTIONED VCTS AT KTUP BETWEEN 22/16Z AND 22/21Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS INCREASING FROM THE NORTH TODAY
BECOMING 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18 KTS AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KJBR.
NE WINDS TONIGHT DIMINISHING TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 221010
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
406 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE NW COUNTIES OF
THE CWA BY 12Z. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE
SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE CWA UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...A SMALL WINDOW OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS POSSIBLE
AS INDICATED BY RAP/RUC/HRRR. INTERROGATING FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...AT LEAST MARGINAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY COINCIDES
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGHING. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A THIN LINE OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE
AREA. CLARKSVILLE SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH NW OF THE BOUNDARY TO ENJOY
A NICE SUNNY DAY AND MISS OUT ON ANYTHING BEYOND 15Z. THE FRONT
WILL BRING A CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
AREA AND PLATEAU AREAS POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE 30S. THIS INITIAL
COOLING WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CREATE A VERY NICE DAY FOR
WEDNESDAY THOUGH AS H5 HEIGHTS BUILD.

.LONG TERM...
OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE REACHING THE MID STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER THE MID
STATE WITH ENOUGH DYNAMICAL SUPPORT TO YIELD STORMS. YESTERDAYS
ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS SHOWED SOME DISAGREEMENT IN UPPER LEVEL
AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT AND NOW IT APPEARS BOTH HAVE SHOOK HANDS AND
WORKED OUT THEIR DIFFERENCES IN THAT REGARD. BOTH ARE SHOWING
PRETTY WEAK 500 MB FLOW BUT A HEALTHY 40+ KT 850 MB LLJ
ACCOMPANIED WITH A THIN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE. THESE FEATURES WILL
PASS THROUGH THE MID STATE BEGINNING AROUND 03Z AND EXIT THE AREA
NO LATER THAN 12Z. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH THIS
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...NOT AS CONFIDENT TODAY THAT
ANYTHING OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS WILL BE WHAT IMPACTS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.1 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE SHOULD
VALIDATE THAT SUSPICION.

AFTER THAT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...ATTENTION THEN MOVES TO THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. GFS
SOLUTIONS YESTERDAY PLUNGED A BIG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH THE EURO STUBBORNLY DISAGREEING. IT NOW LIFTS A WARM
FRONT NORTH OF THE TN/KY BORDER MUCH LIKE THE EURO DID YESTERDAY.
KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S. BY SUNDAY MORNING...RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEGINS WHILE THE WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO INCH NORTH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HEALTHY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE SE CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY. ITS AT THIS
POINT THE FORECAST BECOMES CLOUDY...BOTH LITERALLY AND FIGURATIVELY.
A NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED LOW EVOLVES FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
CYCLOGENESIS WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH WITH IT. AT THIS POINT...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD BE RICH...DEWPOINTS ABOVE 60...RESULTING IN
SOME EXTENSIVE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. WILL WAIT ON
MENTIONING ANYTHING IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME THOUGH WITH PLENTY OF
MODEL VARIABILITY IN THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      73  43  72  47 /  60   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    74  41  70  45 /  20   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     70  40  68  43 /  60  10   0   0
COLUMBIA       73  44  73  47 /  60   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   73  45  74  46 /  60   0   0   0
WAVERLY        75  43  73  47 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

TB12








000
FXUS64 KOHX 221010
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
406 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE NW COUNTIES OF
THE CWA BY 12Z. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE
SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE CWA UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...A SMALL WINDOW OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS POSSIBLE
AS INDICATED BY RAP/RUC/HRRR. INTERROGATING FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...AT LEAST MARGINAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY COINCIDES
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGHING. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A THIN LINE OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE
AREA. CLARKSVILLE SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH NW OF THE BOUNDARY TO ENJOY
A NICE SUNNY DAY AND MISS OUT ON ANYTHING BEYOND 15Z. THE FRONT
WILL BRING A CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
AREA AND PLATEAU AREAS POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE 30S. THIS INITIAL
COOLING WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CREATE A VERY NICE DAY FOR
WEDNESDAY THOUGH AS H5 HEIGHTS BUILD.

.LONG TERM...
OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE REACHING THE MID STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER THE MID
STATE WITH ENOUGH DYNAMICAL SUPPORT TO YIELD STORMS. YESTERDAYS
ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS SHOWED SOME DISAGREEMENT IN UPPER LEVEL
AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT AND NOW IT APPEARS BOTH HAVE SHOOK HANDS AND
WORKED OUT THEIR DIFFERENCES IN THAT REGARD. BOTH ARE SHOWING
PRETTY WEAK 500 MB FLOW BUT A HEALTHY 40+ KT 850 MB LLJ
ACCOMPANIED WITH A THIN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE. THESE FEATURES WILL
PASS THROUGH THE MID STATE BEGINNING AROUND 03Z AND EXIT THE AREA
NO LATER THAN 12Z. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH THIS
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...NOT AS CONFIDENT TODAY THAT
ANYTHING OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS WILL BE WHAT IMPACTS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.1 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE SHOULD
VALIDATE THAT SUSPICION.

AFTER THAT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...ATTENTION THEN MOVES TO THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. GFS
SOLUTIONS YESTERDAY PLUNGED A BIG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH THE EURO STUBBORNLY DISAGREEING. IT NOW LIFTS A WARM
FRONT NORTH OF THE TN/KY BORDER MUCH LIKE THE EURO DID YESTERDAY.
KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S. BY SUNDAY MORNING...RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEGINS WHILE THE WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO INCH NORTH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HEALTHY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE SE CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY. ITS AT THIS
POINT THE FORECAST BECOMES CLOUDY...BOTH LITERALLY AND FIGURATIVELY.
A NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED LOW EVOLVES FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
CYCLOGENESIS WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH WITH IT. AT THIS POINT...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD BE RICH...DEWPOINTS ABOVE 60...RESULTING IN
SOME EXTENSIVE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. WILL WAIT ON
MENTIONING ANYTHING IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME THOUGH WITH PLENTY OF
MODEL VARIABILITY IN THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      73  43  72  47 /  60   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    74  41  70  45 /  20   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     70  40  68  43 /  60  10   0   0
COLUMBIA       73  44  73  47 /  60   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   73  45  74  46 /  60   0   0   0
WAVERLY        75  43  73  47 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

TB12








000
FXUS64 KOHX 221010
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
406 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE NW COUNTIES OF
THE CWA BY 12Z. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE
SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE CWA UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...A SMALL WINDOW OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS POSSIBLE
AS INDICATED BY RAP/RUC/HRRR. INTERROGATING FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...AT LEAST MARGINAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY COINCIDES
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGHING. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A THIN LINE OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE
AREA. CLARKSVILLE SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH NW OF THE BOUNDARY TO ENJOY
A NICE SUNNY DAY AND MISS OUT ON ANYTHING BEYOND 15Z. THE FRONT
WILL BRING A CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
AREA AND PLATEAU AREAS POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE 30S. THIS INITIAL
COOLING WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CREATE A VERY NICE DAY FOR
WEDNESDAY THOUGH AS H5 HEIGHTS BUILD.

.LONG TERM...
OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE REACHING THE MID STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER THE MID
STATE WITH ENOUGH DYNAMICAL SUPPORT TO YIELD STORMS. YESTERDAYS
ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS SHOWED SOME DISAGREEMENT IN UPPER LEVEL
AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT AND NOW IT APPEARS BOTH HAVE SHOOK HANDS AND
WORKED OUT THEIR DIFFERENCES IN THAT REGARD. BOTH ARE SHOWING
PRETTY WEAK 500 MB FLOW BUT A HEALTHY 40+ KT 850 MB LLJ
ACCOMPANIED WITH A THIN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE. THESE FEATURES WILL
PASS THROUGH THE MID STATE BEGINNING AROUND 03Z AND EXIT THE AREA
NO LATER THAN 12Z. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH THIS
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...NOT AS CONFIDENT TODAY THAT
ANYTHING OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS WILL BE WHAT IMPACTS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.1 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE SHOULD
VALIDATE THAT SUSPICION.

AFTER THAT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...ATTENTION THEN MOVES TO THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. GFS
SOLUTIONS YESTERDAY PLUNGED A BIG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH THE EURO STUBBORNLY DISAGREEING. IT NOW LIFTS A WARM
FRONT NORTH OF THE TN/KY BORDER MUCH LIKE THE EURO DID YESTERDAY.
KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S. BY SUNDAY MORNING...RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEGINS WHILE THE WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO INCH NORTH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HEALTHY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE SE CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY. ITS AT THIS
POINT THE FORECAST BECOMES CLOUDY...BOTH LITERALLY AND FIGURATIVELY.
A NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED LOW EVOLVES FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
CYCLOGENESIS WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH WITH IT. AT THIS POINT...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD BE RICH...DEWPOINTS ABOVE 60...RESULTING IN
SOME EXTENSIVE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. WILL WAIT ON
MENTIONING ANYTHING IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME THOUGH WITH PLENTY OF
MODEL VARIABILITY IN THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      73  43  72  47 /  60   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    74  41  70  45 /  20   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     70  40  68  43 /  60  10   0   0
COLUMBIA       73  44  73  47 /  60   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   73  45  74  46 /  60   0   0   0
WAVERLY        75  43  73  47 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

TB12








000
FXUS64 KOHX 221010
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
406 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE NW COUNTIES OF
THE CWA BY 12Z. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE
SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE CWA UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...A SMALL WINDOW OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS POSSIBLE
AS INDICATED BY RAP/RUC/HRRR. INTERROGATING FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...AT LEAST MARGINAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY COINCIDES
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGHING. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A THIN LINE OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE
AREA. CLARKSVILLE SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH NW OF THE BOUNDARY TO ENJOY
A NICE SUNNY DAY AND MISS OUT ON ANYTHING BEYOND 15Z. THE FRONT
WILL BRING A CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
AREA AND PLATEAU AREAS POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE 30S. THIS INITIAL
COOLING WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CREATE A VERY NICE DAY FOR
WEDNESDAY THOUGH AS H5 HEIGHTS BUILD.

.LONG TERM...
OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE REACHING THE MID STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER THE MID
STATE WITH ENOUGH DYNAMICAL SUPPORT TO YIELD STORMS. YESTERDAYS
ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS SHOWED SOME DISAGREEMENT IN UPPER LEVEL
AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT AND NOW IT APPEARS BOTH HAVE SHOOK HANDS AND
WORKED OUT THEIR DIFFERENCES IN THAT REGARD. BOTH ARE SHOWING
PRETTY WEAK 500 MB FLOW BUT A HEALTHY 40+ KT 850 MB LLJ
ACCOMPANIED WITH A THIN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE. THESE FEATURES WILL
PASS THROUGH THE MID STATE BEGINNING AROUND 03Z AND EXIT THE AREA
NO LATER THAN 12Z. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH THIS
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...NOT AS CONFIDENT TODAY THAT
ANYTHING OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS WILL BE WHAT IMPACTS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.1 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE SHOULD
VALIDATE THAT SUSPICION.

AFTER THAT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...ATTENTION THEN MOVES TO THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. GFS
SOLUTIONS YESTERDAY PLUNGED A BIG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH THE EURO STUBBORNLY DISAGREEING. IT NOW LIFTS A WARM
FRONT NORTH OF THE TN/KY BORDER MUCH LIKE THE EURO DID YESTERDAY.
KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S. BY SUNDAY MORNING...RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEGINS WHILE THE WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO INCH NORTH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HEALTHY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE SE CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY. ITS AT THIS
POINT THE FORECAST BECOMES CLOUDY...BOTH LITERALLY AND FIGURATIVELY.
A NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED LOW EVOLVES FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
CYCLOGENESIS WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH WITH IT. AT THIS POINT...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD BE RICH...DEWPOINTS ABOVE 60...RESULTING IN
SOME EXTENSIVE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. WILL WAIT ON
MENTIONING ANYTHING IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME THOUGH WITH PLENTY OF
MODEL VARIABILITY IN THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      73  43  72  47 /  60   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    74  41  70  45 /  20   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     70  40  68  43 /  60  10   0   0
COLUMBIA       73  44  73  47 /  60   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   73  45  74  46 /  60   0   0   0
WAVERLY        75  43  73  47 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

TB12








000
FXUS64 KOHX 220906
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
406 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE NW COUNTIES OF
THE CWA BY 12Z. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE
SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE CWA UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...A SMALL WINDOW OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS POSSIBLE
AS INDICATED BY RAP/RUC/HRRR. INTERROGATING FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...AT LEAST MARGINAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY COINCIDES
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGHING. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A THIN LINE OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE
AREA. CLARKSVILLE SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH NW OF THE BOUNDARY TO ENJOY
A NICE SUNNY DAY AND MISS OUT ON ANYTHING BEYOND 15Z. THE FRONT
WILL BRING A CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
AREA AND PLATEAU AREAS POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE 30S. THIS INITIAL
COOLING WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CREATE A VERY NICE DAY FOR
WEDNESDAY THOUGH AS H5 HEIGHTS BUILD.

.LONG TERM...
OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE REACHING THE MID STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER THE MID
STATE WITH ENOUGH DYNAMICAL SUPPORT TO YIELD STORMS. YESTERDAYS
ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS SHOWED SOME DISAGREEMENT IN UPPER LEVEL
AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT AND NOW IT APPEARS BOTH HAVE SHOOK HANDS AND
WORKED OUT THEIR DIFFERENCES IN THAT REGARD. BOTH ARE SHOWING
PRETTY WEAK 500 MB FLOW BUT A HEALTHY 40+ KT 850 MB LLJ
ACCOMPANIED WITH A THIN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE. THESE FEATURES WILL
PASS THROUGH THE MID STATE BEGINNING AROUND 03Z AND EXIT THE AREA
NO LATER THAN 12Z. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH THIS
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...NOT AS CONFIDENT TODAY THAT
ANYTHING OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS WILL BE WHAT IMPACTS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.1 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE SHOULD
VALIDATE THAT SUSPICION.

AFTER THAT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...ATTENTION THEN MOVES TO THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. GFS
SOLUTIONS YESTERDAY PLUNGED A BIG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH THE EURO STUBBORNLY DISAGREEING. IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT THE GFS DRANK THE EURO KOOL AID WITH THE LATEST RUNS THOUGH.
IT NOW LIFTS A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE TN/KY BORDER MUCH LIKE THE
EURO DID YESTERDAY. KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S. BY SUNDAY
MORNING...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEGINS
WHILE THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO INCH NORTH. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN HEALTHY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE SE CONUS THROUGH
TUESDAY. ITS AT THIS POINT THE FORECAST BECOMES CLOUDY...BOTH
LITERALLY AND FIGURATIVELY. A NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED LOW EVOLVES
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLOGENESIS WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH
WITH IT. AT THIS POINT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD BE
RICH...DEWPOINTS ABOVE 60...RESULTING IN SOME EXTENSIVE HEAVY
RAINS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. WILL WAIT ON MENTIONING ANYTHING IN
THE HWO AT THIS TIME THOUGH WITH PLENTY OF MODEL VARIABILITY IN
THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      73  43  72  47 /  60   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    74  41  70  45 /  20   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     70  40  68  43 /  60  10   0   0
COLUMBIA       73  44  73  47 /  60   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   73  45  74  46 /  60   0   0   0
WAVERLY        75  43  73  47 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

TB12





000
FXUS64 KOHX 220906
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
406 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE NW COUNTIES OF
THE CWA BY 12Z. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE
SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE CWA UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...A SMALL WINDOW OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS POSSIBLE
AS INDICATED BY RAP/RUC/HRRR. INTERROGATING FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...AT LEAST MARGINAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY COINCIDES
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGHING. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A THIN LINE OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE
AREA. CLARKSVILLE SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH NW OF THE BOUNDARY TO ENJOY
A NICE SUNNY DAY AND MISS OUT ON ANYTHING BEYOND 15Z. THE FRONT
WILL BRING A CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
AREA AND PLATEAU AREAS POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE 30S. THIS INITIAL
COOLING WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CREATE A VERY NICE DAY FOR
WEDNESDAY THOUGH AS H5 HEIGHTS BUILD.

.LONG TERM...
OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE REACHING THE MID STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER THE MID
STATE WITH ENOUGH DYNAMICAL SUPPORT TO YIELD STORMS. YESTERDAYS
ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS SHOWED SOME DISAGREEMENT IN UPPER LEVEL
AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT AND NOW IT APPEARS BOTH HAVE SHOOK HANDS AND
WORKED OUT THEIR DIFFERENCES IN THAT REGARD. BOTH ARE SHOWING
PRETTY WEAK 500 MB FLOW BUT A HEALTHY 40+ KT 850 MB LLJ
ACCOMPANIED WITH A THIN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE. THESE FEATURES WILL
PASS THROUGH THE MID STATE BEGINNING AROUND 03Z AND EXIT THE AREA
NO LATER THAN 12Z. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH THIS
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...NOT AS CONFIDENT TODAY THAT
ANYTHING OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS WILL BE WHAT IMPACTS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.1 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE SHOULD
VALIDATE THAT SUSPICION.

AFTER THAT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...ATTENTION THEN MOVES TO THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. GFS
SOLUTIONS YESTERDAY PLUNGED A BIG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH THE EURO STUBBORNLY DISAGREEING. IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT THE GFS DRANK THE EURO KOOL AID WITH THE LATEST RUNS THOUGH.
IT NOW LIFTS A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE TN/KY BORDER MUCH LIKE THE
EURO DID YESTERDAY. KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S. BY SUNDAY
MORNING...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEGINS
WHILE THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO INCH NORTH. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN HEALTHY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE SE CONUS THROUGH
TUESDAY. ITS AT THIS POINT THE FORECAST BECOMES CLOUDY...BOTH
LITERALLY AND FIGURATIVELY. A NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED LOW EVOLVES
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLOGENESIS WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH
WITH IT. AT THIS POINT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD BE
RICH...DEWPOINTS ABOVE 60...RESULTING IN SOME EXTENSIVE HEAVY
RAINS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. WILL WAIT ON MENTIONING ANYTHING IN
THE HWO AT THIS TIME THOUGH WITH PLENTY OF MODEL VARIABILITY IN
THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      73  43  72  47 /  60   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    74  41  70  45 /  20   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     70  40  68  43 /  60  10   0   0
COLUMBIA       73  44  73  47 /  60   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   73  45  74  46 /  60   0   0   0
WAVERLY        75  43  73  47 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

TB12





000
FXUS64 KOHX 220906
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
406 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE NW COUNTIES OF
THE CWA BY 12Z. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE
SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE CWA UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...A SMALL WINDOW OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS POSSIBLE
AS INDICATED BY RAP/RUC/HRRR. INTERROGATING FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...AT LEAST MARGINAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY COINCIDES
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGHING. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A THIN LINE OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE
AREA. CLARKSVILLE SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH NW OF THE BOUNDARY TO ENJOY
A NICE SUNNY DAY AND MISS OUT ON ANYTHING BEYOND 15Z. THE FRONT
WILL BRING A CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
AREA AND PLATEAU AREAS POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE 30S. THIS INITIAL
COOLING WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CREATE A VERY NICE DAY FOR
WEDNESDAY THOUGH AS H5 HEIGHTS BUILD.

.LONG TERM...
OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE REACHING THE MID STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER THE MID
STATE WITH ENOUGH DYNAMICAL SUPPORT TO YIELD STORMS. YESTERDAYS
ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS SHOWED SOME DISAGREEMENT IN UPPER LEVEL
AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT AND NOW IT APPEARS BOTH HAVE SHOOK HANDS AND
WORKED OUT THEIR DIFFERENCES IN THAT REGARD. BOTH ARE SHOWING
PRETTY WEAK 500 MB FLOW BUT A HEALTHY 40+ KT 850 MB LLJ
ACCOMPANIED WITH A THIN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE. THESE FEATURES WILL
PASS THROUGH THE MID STATE BEGINNING AROUND 03Z AND EXIT THE AREA
NO LATER THAN 12Z. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH THIS
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...NOT AS CONFIDENT TODAY THAT
ANYTHING OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS WILL BE WHAT IMPACTS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.1 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE SHOULD
VALIDATE THAT SUSPICION.

AFTER THAT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...ATTENTION THEN MOVES TO THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. GFS
SOLUTIONS YESTERDAY PLUNGED A BIG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH THE EURO STUBBORNLY DISAGREEING. IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT THE GFS DRANK THE EURO KOOL AID WITH THE LATEST RUNS THOUGH.
IT NOW LIFTS A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE TN/KY BORDER MUCH LIKE THE
EURO DID YESTERDAY. KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S. BY SUNDAY
MORNING...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEGINS
WHILE THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO INCH NORTH. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN HEALTHY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE SE CONUS THROUGH
TUESDAY. ITS AT THIS POINT THE FORECAST BECOMES CLOUDY...BOTH
LITERALLY AND FIGURATIVELY. A NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED LOW EVOLVES
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLOGENESIS WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH
WITH IT. AT THIS POINT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD BE
RICH...DEWPOINTS ABOVE 60...RESULTING IN SOME EXTENSIVE HEAVY
RAINS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. WILL WAIT ON MENTIONING ANYTHING IN
THE HWO AT THIS TIME THOUGH WITH PLENTY OF MODEL VARIABILITY IN
THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      73  43  72  47 /  60   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    74  41  70  45 /  20   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     70  40  68  43 /  60  10   0   0
COLUMBIA       73  44  73  47 /  60   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   73  45  74  46 /  60   0   0   0
WAVERLY        75  43  73  47 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

TB12





000
FXUS64 KOHX 220906
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
406 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE NW COUNTIES OF
THE CWA BY 12Z. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE
SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE CWA UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...A SMALL WINDOW OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS POSSIBLE
AS INDICATED BY RAP/RUC/HRRR. INTERROGATING FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...AT LEAST MARGINAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY COINCIDES
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGHING. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A THIN LINE OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE
AREA. CLARKSVILLE SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH NW OF THE BOUNDARY TO ENJOY
A NICE SUNNY DAY AND MISS OUT ON ANYTHING BEYOND 15Z. THE FRONT
WILL BRING A CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
AREA AND PLATEAU AREAS POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE 30S. THIS INITIAL
COOLING WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CREATE A VERY NICE DAY FOR
WEDNESDAY THOUGH AS H5 HEIGHTS BUILD.

.LONG TERM...
OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE REACHING THE MID STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER THE MID
STATE WITH ENOUGH DYNAMICAL SUPPORT TO YIELD STORMS. YESTERDAYS
ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS SHOWED SOME DISAGREEMENT IN UPPER LEVEL
AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT AND NOW IT APPEARS BOTH HAVE SHOOK HANDS AND
WORKED OUT THEIR DIFFERENCES IN THAT REGARD. BOTH ARE SHOWING
PRETTY WEAK 500 MB FLOW BUT A HEALTHY 40+ KT 850 MB LLJ
ACCOMPANIED WITH A THIN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE. THESE FEATURES WILL
PASS THROUGH THE MID STATE BEGINNING AROUND 03Z AND EXIT THE AREA
NO LATER THAN 12Z. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH THIS
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...NOT AS CONFIDENT TODAY THAT
ANYTHING OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS WILL BE WHAT IMPACTS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.1 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE SHOULD
VALIDATE THAT SUSPICION.

AFTER THAT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...ATTENTION THEN MOVES TO THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. GFS
SOLUTIONS YESTERDAY PLUNGED A BIG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH THE EURO STUBBORNLY DISAGREEING. IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT THE GFS DRANK THE EURO KOOL AID WITH THE LATEST RUNS THOUGH.
IT NOW LIFTS A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE TN/KY BORDER MUCH LIKE THE
EURO DID YESTERDAY. KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S. BY SUNDAY
MORNING...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEGINS
WHILE THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO INCH NORTH. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN HEALTHY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE SE CONUS THROUGH
TUESDAY. ITS AT THIS POINT THE FORECAST BECOMES CLOUDY...BOTH
LITERALLY AND FIGURATIVELY. A NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED LOW EVOLVES
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLOGENESIS WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH
WITH IT. AT THIS POINT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD BE
RICH...DEWPOINTS ABOVE 60...RESULTING IN SOME EXTENSIVE HEAVY
RAINS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. WILL WAIT ON MENTIONING ANYTHING IN
THE HWO AT THIS TIME THOUGH WITH PLENTY OF MODEL VARIABILITY IN
THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      73  43  72  47 /  60   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    74  41  70  45 /  20   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     70  40  68  43 /  60  10   0   0
COLUMBIA       73  44  73  47 /  60   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   73  45  74  46 /  60   0   0   0
WAVERLY        75  43  73  47 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

TB12





000
FXUS64 KMEG 220839
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
339 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY SKIES WERE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WITH RADAR SHOWING THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF RAINFALL OVER
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM WERE IN THE LOW TO MID
60S WITH LIGHT WINDS MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

FOR TODAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND WITH CAPE VALUES OF NEAR
500 J/KG OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AN ISOLATED CLAP OF THUNDER
CAN`T BE RULED OUT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. SOME PATCHY
RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONAL.

AFTER A COOL START WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY NICE
SPRING DAY. PERHAPS IN THE TOP TEN FOR THE YEAR...AS SKIES WILL BE
SUNNY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70`S...WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...AND RH`S WILL DIP TO NEAR 40 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS MODELS
INDICATE A DEVELOPING FAST MOVING STORM IN THE PLAINS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A DESCENDING COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING THE NEXT
THREAT FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. RETURN MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE GULF
SUGGESTS A PLUME OF LOW 60 DEWPOINTS WILL SURGE AS FAR NORTH AS
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS FUEL COUPLED WITH
30 TO 60 METER HEIGHT FALLS AS THE TAIL END OF THE SHORTWAVE
SWINGS THROUGH WILL PRODUCE CAPE VALUES IN THE 500 TO 1200 J/KG
RANGE. SO HAVE ADDED A FEW STRONG STORMS FOR NOW IN THE HWO.
FUTURE FORECASTS THOUGH WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY SEVERE
THREAT. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SAME
TIME THE COLD FRONT ISN`T EXPECTED TO GET TO FAR SOUTH OF THE
CWA...AS THE UPPER FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ZONAL FRIDAY. THEREFORE
FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND PLEASANT...WITH 60+ DEWPOINTS
LURKING IN THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THIS PERIOD APPEARS MOSTLY DRY
INITIALLY...BUT BECOMING VERY ACTIVE FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST A STRONGER STORM EVOLVING IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A DEEPER TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY
BECOMING A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE MIDSOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE FRONT SIDE OF THIS ENERGY SUGGESTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER HUMIDITY...WITH AN EVER INCREASING CHANCE FOR
STORMS...OF WHICH SOME MAY BE SEVERE. A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...TAKING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

INITIALLY VFR CONDS AREAWIDE WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR CONDITIONS
AS RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
DOES REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOW. RAIN COVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
PATCHY AND SCATTERED SO WENT WITH VCSH FOR MOST OF THE WET PERIOD.
BEST CHANCES FOR LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND REDUCED VSBYS DUE TO FOG
IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE TEMPOS...MAINLY AFTER 22/09Z OR SO. RAIN
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 22/12Z AT JBR.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS SHIFTING AND
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH BY TOMORROW MORNING
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM AFTER SUNDOWN AND
SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMRX 220641
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
240 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY...THEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.  INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE
FOR TODAY...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO CARRY A CHANCE OF THUNDER ALL ZONES
ALONG WITH THE LIKELY SHOWERS.  DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A CLEARING SKY.  WILL GENERALLY GO A BIT BELOW
MAV TEMPS FOR TODAY GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.  MAV
TEMPS FOR TONIGHT GENERALLY LOOK REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THR0UGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED FOR A QUIET AND WARM WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.  MODELS THEN BRING IN A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
HOWEVER THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCY REGARDING DETAILS SUCH AS
AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT.  HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR
THURSDAY EVENING AND LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  ZONAL FLOW
TO WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS FOR SATURDAY.  A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION.  THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVES IN ON MONDAY WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  46  73  46 /  70  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  73  45  71  44 /  70  10   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       73  43  71  44 /  70  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              71  40  69  40 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW/MJB



000
FXUS64 KMRX 220641
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
240 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY...THEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.  INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE
FOR TODAY...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO CARRY A CHANCE OF THUNDER ALL ZONES
ALONG WITH THE LIKELY SHOWERS.  DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A CLEARING SKY.  WILL GENERALLY GO A BIT BELOW
MAV TEMPS FOR TODAY GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.  MAV
TEMPS FOR TONIGHT GENERALLY LOOK REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THR0UGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED FOR A QUIET AND WARM WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.  MODELS THEN BRING IN A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
HOWEVER THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCY REGARDING DETAILS SUCH AS
AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT.  HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR
THURSDAY EVENING AND LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  ZONAL FLOW
TO WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS FOR SATURDAY.  A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION.  THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVES IN ON MONDAY WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  46  73  46 /  70  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  73  45  71  44 /  70  10   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       73  43  71  44 /  70  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              71  40  69  40 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW/MJB



000
FXUS64 KMRX 220641
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
240 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY...THEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.  INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE
FOR TODAY...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO CARRY A CHANCE OF THUNDER ALL ZONES
ALONG WITH THE LIKELY SHOWERS.  DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A CLEARING SKY.  WILL GENERALLY GO A BIT BELOW
MAV TEMPS FOR TODAY GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.  MAV
TEMPS FOR TONIGHT GENERALLY LOOK REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THR0UGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED FOR A QUIET AND WARM WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.  MODELS THEN BRING IN A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
HOWEVER THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCY REGARDING DETAILS SUCH AS
AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT.  HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR
THURSDAY EVENING AND LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  ZONAL FLOW
TO WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS FOR SATURDAY.  A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION.  THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVES IN ON MONDAY WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  46  73  46 /  70  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  73  45  71  44 /  70  10   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       73  43  71  44 /  70  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              71  40  69  40 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW/MJB



000
FXUS64 KMRX 220641
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
240 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY...THEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.  INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE
FOR TODAY...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO CARRY A CHANCE OF THUNDER ALL ZONES
ALONG WITH THE LIKELY SHOWERS.  DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A CLEARING SKY.  WILL GENERALLY GO A BIT BELOW
MAV TEMPS FOR TODAY GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.  MAV
TEMPS FOR TONIGHT GENERALLY LOOK REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THR0UGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED FOR A QUIET AND WARM WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.  MODELS THEN BRING IN A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
HOWEVER THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCY REGARDING DETAILS SUCH AS
AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT.  HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR
THURSDAY EVENING AND LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  ZONAL FLOW
TO WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS FOR SATURDAY.  A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION.  THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVES IN ON MONDAY WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  46  73  46 /  70  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  73  45  71  44 /  70  10   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       73  43  71  44 /  70  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              71  40  69  40 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW/MJB



000
FXUS64 KMRX 220523
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
123 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TODAY...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. SOME SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY WITH A
HEAVIER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW
PROBABILITIES AND TIMING UNCERTAINTIES WILL JUST CARRY VFR
CONDITIONS FOR NOW.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW



000
FXUS64 KMRX 220523
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
123 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TODAY...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. SOME SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY WITH A
HEAVIER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW
PROBABILITIES AND TIMING UNCERTAINTIES WILL JUST CARRY VFR
CONDITIONS FOR NOW.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW



000
FXUS64 KMRX 220523
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
123 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TODAY...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. SOME SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY WITH A
HEAVIER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW
PROBABILITIES AND TIMING UNCERTAINTIES WILL JUST CARRY VFR
CONDITIONS FOR NOW.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW



000
FXUS64 KMRX 220523
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
123 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TODAY...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. SOME SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY WITH A
HEAVIER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW
PROBABILITIES AND TIMING UNCERTAINTIES WILL JUST CARRY VFR
CONDITIONS FOR NOW.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW



000
FXUS64 KOHX 220522
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1222 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z TAFS...

&&

.AVIATION...
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AT ALL SITES. MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AS CEILINGS APPROACH 2000FT TUESDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGHOUT THE MORNING ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT AS THE
WEAK COLD FRONT BEHIND THE SHOWERS EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT COULD
BRING SOME GUSTY NW WINDS TO 18KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD CALM DOWN BY 00Z TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
ANY SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL BE SCATTERED WITH INCREASING POPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. UPPER TROUGH DOWN THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL WORK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SURFACE FRONT GETS DOWN
INTO NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE TUESDAY MORNING. NO CHANGE TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

11






000
FXUS64 KOHX 220522
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1222 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z TAFS...

&&

.AVIATION...
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AT ALL SITES. MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AS CEILINGS APPROACH 2000FT TUESDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGHOUT THE MORNING ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT AS THE
WEAK COLD FRONT BEHIND THE SHOWERS EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT COULD
BRING SOME GUSTY NW WINDS TO 18KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD CALM DOWN BY 00Z TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
ANY SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL BE SCATTERED WITH INCREASING POPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. UPPER TROUGH DOWN THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL WORK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SURFACE FRONT GETS DOWN
INTO NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE TUESDAY MORNING. NO CHANGE TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

11






000
FXUS64 KOHX 220522
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1222 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z TAFS...

&&

.AVIATION...
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AT ALL SITES. MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AS CEILINGS APPROACH 2000FT TUESDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGHOUT THE MORNING ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT AS THE
WEAK COLD FRONT BEHIND THE SHOWERS EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT COULD
BRING SOME GUSTY NW WINDS TO 18KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD CALM DOWN BY 00Z TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
ANY SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL BE SCATTERED WITH INCREASING POPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. UPPER TROUGH DOWN THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL WORK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SURFACE FRONT GETS DOWN
INTO NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE TUESDAY MORNING. NO CHANGE TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

11






000
FXUS64 KOHX 220522
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1222 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z TAFS...

&&

.AVIATION...
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AT ALL SITES. MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AS CEILINGS APPROACH 2000FT TUESDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGHOUT THE MORNING ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT AS THE
WEAK COLD FRONT BEHIND THE SHOWERS EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT COULD
BRING SOME GUSTY NW WINDS TO 18KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD CALM DOWN BY 00Z TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
ANY SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL BE SCATTERED WITH INCREASING POPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. UPPER TROUGH DOWN THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL WORK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SURFACE FRONT GETS DOWN
INTO NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE TUESDAY MORNING. NO CHANGE TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

11






000
FXUS64 KMEG 220503
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1203 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. THE RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SOME ISOLATED AREAS.
HOWEVER...AFTER MIDNIGHT EXPECT THAT THERE WON/T BE ANY THUNDER IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SO REMOVED FROM FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS LOOK ON TRACK SO WILL LEAVE
REST OF GRIDS ALONE.

ONLY SIMPLE UPDATE FOR WORDING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOME ZONES. TLSJR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SO FAR TODAY. SURFACE DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE 50S HELPING TO KEEP INSTABILITY TO A MINIMUM. LI`S
REMAIN POSITIVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH CAPES BELOW 200
J/KG. SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY IS NOT FAR TO OUR WEST. DO NOT
SEE MUCH CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND SUNSET WHEN INSTABILITY SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AGAIN. SCALED BACK THUNDERSTORMS TO ISOLATED
COVERAGE WITH HIGHER COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. DO NOT SEE
ANY DYNAMIC SUPPORT MOVING IN OVERNIGHT EITHER...SO FEEL LIKE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT
EXCEED ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL LIKELY END FOR MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH BY
SUNRISE...BUT LINGER IN WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS THROUGH TOMORROW.
HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW FOR MID TO LATE
APRIL. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE WARMER BECAUSE OF LESS CLOUD COVER. HIGHS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. MORNING
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT IN
GUIDANCE. WILL SIDE WITH THE WARMER ECMWF FOR TEMPERATURES AND
INCLUDE 20-30 POPS FOR NOW.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

INITIALLY VFR CONDS AREAWIDE WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR CONDITIONS
AS RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
DOES REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOW. RAIN COVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
PATCHY AND SCATTERED SO WENT WITH VCSH FOR MOST OF THE WET PERIOD.
BEST CHANCES FOR LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND REDUCED VSBYS DUE TO FOG
IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE TEMPOS...MAINLY AFTER 22/09Z OR SO. RAIN
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 22/12Z AT JBR.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS SHIFTING AND
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH BY TOMORROW MORNING
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM AFTER SUNDOWN AND
SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 220206
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
906 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...


&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANY SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL BE SCATTERED WITH INCREASING POPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. UPPER TROUGH DOWN THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL WORK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SURFACE FRONT GETS DOWN
INTO NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE TUESDAY MORNING. NO CHANGE TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 220206
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
906 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...


&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANY SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL BE SCATTERED WITH INCREASING POPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. UPPER TROUGH DOWN THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL WORK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SURFACE FRONT GETS DOWN
INTO NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE TUESDAY MORNING. NO CHANGE TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KMRX 220138 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
938 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO TONIGHTS FORECAST. CURRENT
HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A LITTLE TOO WARM COMPARED TO
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER
FORECAST. INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACH THE AREA TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             60  74  46  73 /  40  70   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  57  73  44  71 /  40  70   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       58  72  44  71 /  40  70   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              50  72  39  69 /  30  70   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 220138 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
938 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO TONIGHTS FORECAST. CURRENT
HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A LITTLE TOO WARM COMPARED TO
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER
FORECAST. INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACH THE AREA TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             60  74  46  73 /  40  70   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  57  73  44  71 /  40  70   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       58  72  44  71 /  40  70   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              50  72  39  69 /  30  70   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMEG 220113
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
813 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. THE RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SOME ISOLATED AREAS.
HOWEVER...AFTER MIDNIGHT EXPECT THAT THERE WON/T BE ANY THUNDER IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SO REMOVED FROM FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS LOOK ON TRACK SO WILL LEAVE
REST OF GRIDS ALONE.

ONLY SIMPLE UPDATE FOR WORDING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOME ZONES. TLSJR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SO FAR TODAY. SURFACE DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE 50S HELPING TO KEEP INSTABILITY TO A MINIMUM. LI`S
REMAIN POSITIVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH CAPES BELOW 200
J/KG. SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY IS NOT FAR TO OUR WEST. DO NOT
SEE MUCH CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND SUNSET WHEN INSTABILITY SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AGAIN. SCALED BACK THUNDERSTORMS TO ISOLATED
COVERAGE WITH HIGHER COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. DO NOT SEE
ANY DYNAMIC SUPPORT MOVING IN OVERNIGHT EITHER...SO FEEL LIKE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT
EXCEED ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL LIKELY END FOR MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH BY
SUNRISE...BUT LINGER IN WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS THROUGH TOMORROW.
HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW FOR MID TO LATE
APRIL. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE WARMER BECAUSE OF LESS CLOUD COVER. HIGHS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. MORNING
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT IN
GUIDANCE. WILL SIDE WITH THE WARMER ECMWF FOR TEMPERATURES AND
INCLUDE 20-30 POPS FOR NOW.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

INITIALLY VFR CONDS AREAWIDE WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MOST RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE PATCHY AND SCATTERED SO WENT
WITH VCTS AND VCSH FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCES FOR
LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND REDUCED VSBYS DUE TO FOG IS HIGHLIGHTED
IN THE TEMPOS...MAINLY AFTER 22/09Z OR SO. RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF SET AND VFR CONDS WILL RETURN TO
EACH SITE. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS
SHIFTING AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH BY
TOMORROW MORNING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 220001
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
701 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SO FAR TODAY. SURFACE DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE 50S HELPING TO KEEP INSTABILITY TO A MINIMUM. LI`S
REMAIN POSITIVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH CAPES BELOW 200
J/KG. SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY IS NOT FAR TO OUR WEST. DO NOT
SEE MUCH CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND SUNSET WHEN INSTABILITY SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AGAIN. SCALED BACK THUNDERSTORMS TO ISOLATED
COVERAGE WITH HIGHER COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. DO NOT SEE
ANY DYNAMIC SUPPORT MOVING IN OVERNIGHT EITHER...SO FEEL LIKE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT
EXCEED ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL LIKELY END FOR MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH BY
SUNRISE...BUT LINGER IN WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS THROUGH TOMORROW.
HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW FOR MID TO LATE
APRIL. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE WARMER BECAUSE OF LESS CLOUD COVER. HIGHS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. MORNING
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT IN
GUIDANCE. WILL SIDE WITH THE WARMER ECMWF FOR TEMPERATURES AND
INCLUDE 20-30 POPS FOR NOW.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

INITIALLY VFR CONDS AREAWIDE WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MOST RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE PATCHY AND SCATTERED SO WENT
WITH VCTS AND VCSH FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCES FOR
LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND REDUCED VSBYS DUE TO FOG IS HIGHLIGHTED
IN THE TEMPOS...MAINLY AFTER 22/09Z OR SO. RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF SET AND VFR CONDS WILL RETURN TO
EACH SITE. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS
SHIFTING AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH BY
TOMORROW MORNING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 212343
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
643 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST DOWN THROUGH MISSOURI...ARKANSAS INTO
NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDER OVERNIGHT SO LEFT OUT OF AVIATION FORECAST. COOL FRONT
WILL WORK INTO MID STATE TUESDAY MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCE ENDING
WITH FROPA.

MESOSCALE...AREA CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EASTWARD BUT MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE MID STATE
IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
THUNDER WITH THIS FEATURE LATE NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AS IT MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 212343
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
643 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST DOWN THROUGH MISSOURI...ARKANSAS INTO
NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDER OVERNIGHT SO LEFT OUT OF AVIATION FORECAST. COOL FRONT
WILL WORK INTO MID STATE TUESDAY MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCE ENDING
WITH FROPA.

MESOSCALE...AREA CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EASTWARD BUT MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE MID STATE
IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
THUNDER WITH THIS FEATURE LATE NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AS IT MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 212343
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
643 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST DOWN THROUGH MISSOURI...ARKANSAS INTO
NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDER OVERNIGHT SO LEFT OUT OF AVIATION FORECAST. COOL FRONT
WILL WORK INTO MID STATE TUESDAY MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCE ENDING
WITH FROPA.

MESOSCALE...AREA CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EASTWARD BUT MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE MID STATE
IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
THUNDER WITH THIS FEATURE LATE NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AS IT MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 212343
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
643 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST DOWN THROUGH MISSOURI...ARKANSAS INTO
NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDER OVERNIGHT SO LEFT OUT OF AVIATION FORECAST. COOL FRONT
WILL WORK INTO MID STATE TUESDAY MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCE ENDING
WITH FROPA.

MESOSCALE...AREA CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EASTWARD BUT MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE MID STATE
IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
THUNDER WITH THIS FEATURE LATE NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AS IT MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KMRX 212331
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
731 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z TUE...BUT
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DETEORIATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 14-16Z
DUE TO LOWERING CEILING AND VISIBILITY DUE TO SHOWERS. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDESTORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 20Z
TUESDAY MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 1 MILE WITH GUSTY WINDS.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 19-21Z WITH WINDS
BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10KTS AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 212331
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
731 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z TUE...BUT
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DETEORIATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 14-16Z
DUE TO LOWERING CEILING AND VISIBILITY DUE TO SHOWERS. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDESTORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 20Z
TUESDAY MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 1 MILE WITH GUSTY WINDS.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 19-21Z WITH WINDS
BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10KTS AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 212331
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
731 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z TUE...BUT
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DETEORIATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 14-16Z
DUE TO LOWERING CEILING AND VISIBILITY DUE TO SHOWERS. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDESTORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 20Z
TUESDAY MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 1 MILE WITH GUSTY WINDS.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 19-21Z WITH WINDS
BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10KTS AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 212331
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
731 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z TUE...BUT
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DETEORIATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 14-16Z
DUE TO LOWERING CEILING AND VISIBILITY DUE TO SHOWERS. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDESTORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 20Z
TUESDAY MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 1 MILE WITH GUSTY WINDS.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 19-21Z WITH WINDS
BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10KTS AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 212013
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
313 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.

FORECAST QUANDARIES...WX PATTERN TONIGHT THRU TUE...WX PATTERN LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...TEMPS.

MODELS CONTINUING THEIR RECENT TREND OFF OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INFLUENCES THE MID STATE`S WX
TONIGHT...STILL LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...
AS A SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MID STATE FROM THE NW BY
22/12Z. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOWING EVEN
THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS ACTIVITY MAINLY MOVING S OF THE MID STATE
TOO. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF OVERALL
ATM INSTABILITY...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF THE MID STATE BY 22/12Z ALSO...CAN NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER HERE OR THERE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT
BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SHWRS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ALSO. AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...EXPECT
GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS. AS FOR
TEMPS...WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE...RAINFALL...AND A
CONTINUANCE OF SWLY WIND FLOW EXPECTED...TAPPING INTO A SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIRMASS TO OUR SW ALSO...WILL GO CLOSE TO AN MOS GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SOLUTION. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID STATE DURING THE MORNING HRS ON TUE AS
SFC FRONT MOVES THRU THE MID STATE DURING THE MORNING HRS...WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLY PERSISTING ACROSS THE
PLATEAU AND SRN COUNTIES. EXPECT A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN HIGHS FROM
THIS AFTERNOON`S VALUES...AND WILL AGAIN GO CLOSE TO CONSENSUS
MODEL REASONING ON TEMPS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S WED MORNING...HIGHS NEAR SEASONABLE
NORMAL VALUES ON WED...AND A RETURN TO TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S ON WED NIGHT.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THU THRU THE FIRST
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...STILL EXPECTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE THRU
THE MID STATE MAINLY ON THU NIGHT...WITH SOME STRONG TSTMS POSSIBLE...
BUT MODEL TRENDING TOWARD THIS POSSIBILITY BECOMING MORE AND MORE ISO
IN NATURE. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE MORNING HRS ON FRI...
CANADIAN BASED SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES SHOULD PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUN. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS AS OF LATE DEALING WITH THE OVERALL WX PATTERN FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF SUN INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE
STARTING TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER.  SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD
AGAIN DEVELOP ON SUN NIGHT/MON AS A WELL ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM
PUSHES A WARM FRONT FROM THE S INTO THE MID STATE PUTTING THE MID
STATE IN THE BROAD WARM SECTOR OF THIS DEVELOPING POTENTIALLY STRONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES THRU SAT...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...COOLING BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES BY THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      60  72  44  69 /  60  60   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    58  72  41  69 /  60  20   0   0
CROSSVILLE     56  70  39  66 /  60  60   0   0
COLUMBIA       60  73  45  71 /  60  60   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   59  73  44  73 /  60  60   0   0
WAVERLY        59  72  42  70 /  60  50   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 212013
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
313 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.

FORECAST QUANDARIES...WX PATTERN TONIGHT THRU TUE...WX PATTERN LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...TEMPS.

MODELS CONTINUING THEIR RECENT TREND OFF OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INFLUENCES THE MID STATE`S WX
TONIGHT...STILL LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...
AS A SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MID STATE FROM THE NW BY
22/12Z. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOWING EVEN
THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS ACTIVITY MAINLY MOVING S OF THE MID STATE
TOO. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF OVERALL
ATM INSTABILITY...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF THE MID STATE BY 22/12Z ALSO...CAN NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER HERE OR THERE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT
BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SHWRS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ALSO. AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...EXPECT
GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS. AS FOR
TEMPS...WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE...RAINFALL...AND A
CONTINUANCE OF SWLY WIND FLOW EXPECTED...TAPPING INTO A SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIRMASS TO OUR SW ALSO...WILL GO CLOSE TO AN MOS GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SOLUTION. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID STATE DURING THE MORNING HRS ON TUE AS
SFC FRONT MOVES THRU THE MID STATE DURING THE MORNING HRS...WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLY PERSISTING ACROSS THE
PLATEAU AND SRN COUNTIES. EXPECT A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN HIGHS FROM
THIS AFTERNOON`S VALUES...AND WILL AGAIN GO CLOSE TO CONSENSUS
MODEL REASONING ON TEMPS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S WED MORNING...HIGHS NEAR SEASONABLE
NORMAL VALUES ON WED...AND A RETURN TO TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S ON WED NIGHT.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THU THRU THE FIRST
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...STILL EXPECTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE THRU
THE MID STATE MAINLY ON THU NIGHT...WITH SOME STRONG TSTMS POSSIBLE...
BUT MODEL TRENDING TOWARD THIS POSSIBILITY BECOMING MORE AND MORE ISO
IN NATURE. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE MORNING HRS ON FRI...
CANADIAN BASED SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES SHOULD PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUN. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS AS OF LATE DEALING WITH THE OVERALL WX PATTERN FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF SUN INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE
STARTING TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER.  SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD
AGAIN DEVELOP ON SUN NIGHT/MON AS A WELL ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM
PUSHES A WARM FRONT FROM THE S INTO THE MID STATE PUTTING THE MID
STATE IN THE BROAD WARM SECTOR OF THIS DEVELOPING POTENTIALLY STRONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES THRU SAT...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...COOLING BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES BY THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      60  72  44  69 /  60  60   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    58  72  41  69 /  60  20   0   0
CROSSVILLE     56  70  39  66 /  60  60   0   0
COLUMBIA       60  73  45  71 /  60  60   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   59  73  44  73 /  60  60   0   0
WAVERLY        59  72  42  70 /  60  50   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 212013
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
313 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.

FORECAST QUANDARIES...WX PATTERN TONIGHT THRU TUE...WX PATTERN LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...TEMPS.

MODELS CONTINUING THEIR RECENT TREND OFF OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INFLUENCES THE MID STATE`S WX
TONIGHT...STILL LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...
AS A SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MID STATE FROM THE NW BY
22/12Z. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOWING EVEN
THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS ACTIVITY MAINLY MOVING S OF THE MID STATE
TOO. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF OVERALL
ATM INSTABILITY...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF THE MID STATE BY 22/12Z ALSO...CAN NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER HERE OR THERE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT
BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SHWRS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ALSO. AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...EXPECT
GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS. AS FOR
TEMPS...WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE...RAINFALL...AND A
CONTINUANCE OF SWLY WIND FLOW EXPECTED...TAPPING INTO A SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIRMASS TO OUR SW ALSO...WILL GO CLOSE TO AN MOS GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SOLUTION. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID STATE DURING THE MORNING HRS ON TUE AS
SFC FRONT MOVES THRU THE MID STATE DURING THE MORNING HRS...WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLY PERSISTING ACROSS THE
PLATEAU AND SRN COUNTIES. EXPECT A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN HIGHS FROM
THIS AFTERNOON`S VALUES...AND WILL AGAIN GO CLOSE TO CONSENSUS
MODEL REASONING ON TEMPS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S WED MORNING...HIGHS NEAR SEASONABLE
NORMAL VALUES ON WED...AND A RETURN TO TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S ON WED NIGHT.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THU THRU THE FIRST
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...STILL EXPECTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE THRU
THE MID STATE MAINLY ON THU NIGHT...WITH SOME STRONG TSTMS POSSIBLE...
BUT MODEL TRENDING TOWARD THIS POSSIBILITY BECOMING MORE AND MORE ISO
IN NATURE. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE MORNING HRS ON FRI...
CANADIAN BASED SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES SHOULD PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUN. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS AS OF LATE DEALING WITH THE OVERALL WX PATTERN FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF SUN INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE
STARTING TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER.  SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD
AGAIN DEVELOP ON SUN NIGHT/MON AS A WELL ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM
PUSHES A WARM FRONT FROM THE S INTO THE MID STATE PUTTING THE MID
STATE IN THE BROAD WARM SECTOR OF THIS DEVELOPING POTENTIALLY STRONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES THRU SAT...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...COOLING BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES BY THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      60  72  44  69 /  60  60   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    58  72  41  69 /  60  20   0   0
CROSSVILLE     56  70  39  66 /  60  60   0   0
COLUMBIA       60  73  45  71 /  60  60   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   59  73  44  73 /  60  60   0   0
WAVERLY        59  72  42  70 /  60  50   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 212013
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
313 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.

FORECAST QUANDARIES...WX PATTERN TONIGHT THRU TUE...WX PATTERN LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...TEMPS.

MODELS CONTINUING THEIR RECENT TREND OFF OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INFLUENCES THE MID STATE`S WX
TONIGHT...STILL LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...
AS A SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MID STATE FROM THE NW BY
22/12Z. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOWING EVEN
THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS ACTIVITY MAINLY MOVING S OF THE MID STATE
TOO. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF OVERALL
ATM INSTABILITY...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF THE MID STATE BY 22/12Z ALSO...CAN NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER HERE OR THERE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT
BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SHWRS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ALSO. AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...EXPECT
GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS. AS FOR
TEMPS...WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE...RAINFALL...AND A
CONTINUANCE OF SWLY WIND FLOW EXPECTED...TAPPING INTO A SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIRMASS TO OUR SW ALSO...WILL GO CLOSE TO AN MOS GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SOLUTION. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID STATE DURING THE MORNING HRS ON TUE AS
SFC FRONT MOVES THRU THE MID STATE DURING THE MORNING HRS...WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLY PERSISTING ACROSS THE
PLATEAU AND SRN COUNTIES. EXPECT A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN HIGHS FROM
THIS AFTERNOON`S VALUES...AND WILL AGAIN GO CLOSE TO CONSENSUS
MODEL REASONING ON TEMPS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S WED MORNING...HIGHS NEAR SEASONABLE
NORMAL VALUES ON WED...AND A RETURN TO TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S ON WED NIGHT.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THU THRU THE FIRST
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...STILL EXPECTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE THRU
THE MID STATE MAINLY ON THU NIGHT...WITH SOME STRONG TSTMS POSSIBLE...
BUT MODEL TRENDING TOWARD THIS POSSIBILITY BECOMING MORE AND MORE ISO
IN NATURE. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE MORNING HRS ON FRI...
CANADIAN BASED SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES SHOULD PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUN. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS AS OF LATE DEALING WITH THE OVERALL WX PATTERN FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF SUN INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE
STARTING TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER.  SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD
AGAIN DEVELOP ON SUN NIGHT/MON AS A WELL ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM
PUSHES A WARM FRONT FROM THE S INTO THE MID STATE PUTTING THE MID
STATE IN THE BROAD WARM SECTOR OF THIS DEVELOPING POTENTIALLY STRONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES THRU SAT...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...COOLING BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES BY THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      60  72  44  69 /  60  60   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    58  72  41  69 /  60  20   0   0
CROSSVILLE     56  70  39  66 /  60  60   0   0
COLUMBIA       60  73  45  71 /  60  60   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   59  73  44  73 /  60  60   0   0
WAVERLY        59  72  42  70 /  60  50   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
31






000
FXUS64 KMEG 211954
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
254 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SO FAR TODAY. SURFACE DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE 50S HELPING TO KEEP INSTABILITY TO A MINIMUM. LI`S
REMAIN POSITIVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH CAPES BELOW 200
J/KG. SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY IS NOT FAR TO OUR WEST. DO NOT
SEE MUCH CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND SUNSET WHEN INSTABILITY SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AGAIN. SCALED BACK THUNDERSTORMS TO ISOLATED
COVERAGE WITH HIGHER COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. DO NOT SEE
ANY DYNAMIC SUPPORT MOVING IN OVERNIGHT EITHER...SO FEEL LIKE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT
EXCEED ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL LIKELY END FOR MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH BY
SUNRISE...BUT LINGER IN WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS THROUGH TOMORROW.
HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW FOR MID TO LATE
APRIL. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE WARMER BECAUSE OF LESS CLOUD COVER. HIGHS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. MORNING
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT IN
GUIDANCE. WILL SIDE WITH THE WARMER ECMWF FOR TEMPERATURES AND
INCLUDE 20-30 POPS FOR NOW.

30

&&

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS
EVENING. VCSH WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR LEVELS AS THE FRONT NEARS EACH TAF SITE BUT
WILL SOON LIFT AFTER THE FRONT MATRICULATES THROUGH FROM NW TO SE
BY TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10K FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT BEGIN TO DECREASE AND VEER TO THE NORTH AS THE FRONT PASSES
EARLY TOMORROW.

JMP3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMRX 211910
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. DEW POINTS HAD FALLEN INTO THE
30S TO MID 40S. RH VALUES WERE AS LOW AS AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN
SW VA SO FAR ABOUT 5 PERCENT HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. WINDS WERE MOSTLY
ABOUT 5 TO 10 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS. CLOUDS TO THE WEST WERE THICKENING UP AND EXPECT THESE TO
MOVE OVER WESTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION WAS AS CLOSE
AS THE LOWER OH VALLEY IN EXTREME WESTERN KY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST MOVES SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. WEAK FRONT TO APPROACH IN THE MORNING AND BE
THROUGH ENTIRE AREA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ONLY AROUND
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MAINLY DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE
INCREASED RH VALUES BRINGING HIGHER DEW POINTS IN QUICKER THAN WHAT
HAS HAPPENED EACH DAY SO WILL KEEP CURRENT DEW POINTS LOW THROUGH
ABOUT 00Z TONIGHT. LOWERED DEW POINTS TUESDAY AS WELL. BUMPED LOWS
UP A FEW DEGREES WEST TONIGHT WITH INCREASED CLOUDS. HIGHS TUESDAY
NEAR GUIDANCE OF UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE COLD
AIR ADVECTION WITH FRONT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND GENERALLY REVEAL A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE TN RIVER
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD
THEN STALL OUT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ON SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. FURTHER AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS DEEP
UPPER TROUGH IS THEN PROGGED TO BRING A STRONG AND SLOW-MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE EXACT
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT RIGHT NOW...BOTH MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
THAT IT WILL BRING STRONG DYNAMICS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS FOR
TEMPS...WILL GENERALLY TREND A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE GFS NUMBERS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             60  74  46  73 /  40  70   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  58  73  44  71 /  40  70   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       59  72  44  71 /  40  70   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              51  72  39  69 /  30  70   0   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD/DMG



000
FXUS64 KMRX 211910
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. DEW POINTS HAD FALLEN INTO THE
30S TO MID 40S. RH VALUES WERE AS LOW AS AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN
SW VA SO FAR ABOUT 5 PERCENT HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. WINDS WERE MOSTLY
ABOUT 5 TO 10 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS. CLOUDS TO THE WEST WERE THICKENING UP AND EXPECT THESE TO
MOVE OVER WESTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION WAS AS CLOSE
AS THE LOWER OH VALLEY IN EXTREME WESTERN KY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST MOVES SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. WEAK FRONT TO APPROACH IN THE MORNING AND BE
THROUGH ENTIRE AREA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ONLY AROUND
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MAINLY DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE
INCREASED RH VALUES BRINGING HIGHER DEW POINTS IN QUICKER THAN WHAT
HAS HAPPENED EACH DAY SO WILL KEEP CURRENT DEW POINTS LOW THROUGH
ABOUT 00Z TONIGHT. LOWERED DEW POINTS TUESDAY AS WELL. BUMPED LOWS
UP A FEW DEGREES WEST TONIGHT WITH INCREASED CLOUDS. HIGHS TUESDAY
NEAR GUIDANCE OF UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE COLD
AIR ADVECTION WITH FRONT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND GENERALLY REVEAL A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE TN RIVER
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD
THEN STALL OUT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ON SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. FURTHER AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS DEEP
UPPER TROUGH IS THEN PROGGED TO BRING A STRONG AND SLOW-MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE EXACT
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT RIGHT NOW...BOTH MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
THAT IT WILL BRING STRONG DYNAMICS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS FOR
TEMPS...WILL GENERALLY TREND A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE GFS NUMBERS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             60  74  46  73 /  40  70   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  58  73  44  71 /  40  70   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       59  72  44  71 /  40  70   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              51  72  39  69 /  30  70   0   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD/DMG



000
FXUS64 KMRX 211910
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. DEW POINTS HAD FALLEN INTO THE
30S TO MID 40S. RH VALUES WERE AS LOW AS AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN
SW VA SO FAR ABOUT 5 PERCENT HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. WINDS WERE MOSTLY
ABOUT 5 TO 10 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS. CLOUDS TO THE WEST WERE THICKENING UP AND EXPECT THESE TO
MOVE OVER WESTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION WAS AS CLOSE
AS THE LOWER OH VALLEY IN EXTREME WESTERN KY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST MOVES SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. WEAK FRONT TO APPROACH IN THE MORNING AND BE
THROUGH ENTIRE AREA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ONLY AROUND
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MAINLY DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE
INCREASED RH VALUES BRINGING HIGHER DEW POINTS IN QUICKER THAN WHAT
HAS HAPPENED EACH DAY SO WILL KEEP CURRENT DEW POINTS LOW THROUGH
ABOUT 00Z TONIGHT. LOWERED DEW POINTS TUESDAY AS WELL. BUMPED LOWS
UP A FEW DEGREES WEST TONIGHT WITH INCREASED CLOUDS. HIGHS TUESDAY
NEAR GUIDANCE OF UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE COLD
AIR ADVECTION WITH FRONT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND GENERALLY REVEAL A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE TN RIVER
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD
THEN STALL OUT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ON SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. FURTHER AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS DEEP
UPPER TROUGH IS THEN PROGGED TO BRING A STRONG AND SLOW-MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE EXACT
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT RIGHT NOW...BOTH MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
THAT IT WILL BRING STRONG DYNAMICS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS FOR
TEMPS...WILL GENERALLY TREND A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE GFS NUMBERS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             60  74  46  73 /  40  70   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  58  73  44  71 /  40  70   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       59  72  44  71 /  40  70   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              51  72  39  69 /  30  70   0   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD/DMG



000
FXUS64 KMRX 211910
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. DEW POINTS HAD FALLEN INTO THE
30S TO MID 40S. RH VALUES WERE AS LOW AS AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN
SW VA SO FAR ABOUT 5 PERCENT HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. WINDS WERE MOSTLY
ABOUT 5 TO 10 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS. CLOUDS TO THE WEST WERE THICKENING UP AND EXPECT THESE TO
MOVE OVER WESTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION WAS AS CLOSE
AS THE LOWER OH VALLEY IN EXTREME WESTERN KY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST MOVES SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. WEAK FRONT TO APPROACH IN THE MORNING AND BE
THROUGH ENTIRE AREA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ONLY AROUND
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MAINLY DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE
INCREASED RH VALUES BRINGING HIGHER DEW POINTS IN QUICKER THAN WHAT
HAS HAPPENED EACH DAY SO WILL KEEP CURRENT DEW POINTS LOW THROUGH
ABOUT 00Z TONIGHT. LOWERED DEW POINTS TUESDAY AS WELL. BUMPED LOWS
UP A FEW DEGREES WEST TONIGHT WITH INCREASED CLOUDS. HIGHS TUESDAY
NEAR GUIDANCE OF UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE COLD
AIR ADVECTION WITH FRONT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND GENERALLY REVEAL A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE TN RIVER
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD
THEN STALL OUT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ON SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. FURTHER AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS DEEP
UPPER TROUGH IS THEN PROGGED TO BRING A STRONG AND SLOW-MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE EXACT
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT RIGHT NOW...BOTH MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
THAT IT WILL BRING STRONG DYNAMICS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS FOR
TEMPS...WILL GENERALLY TREND A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE GFS NUMBERS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             60  74  46  73 /  40  70   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  58  73  44  71 /  40  70   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       59  72  44  71 /  40  70   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              51  72  39  69 /  30  70   0   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD/DMG



000
FXUS64 KMEG 211811
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
111 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.
FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY WELL ON TRACK. INCREASED POPS A BIT BASED ON
RADAR COVERAGE AND TONED DOWN THE THUNDER WORDING TO ONLY SHOWERS
BEFORE NOON...THEN ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TODAY AND TUESDAY...WITH LOWS AROUND 60
TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST IT WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER BACK
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM
THE NORTH.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
MID SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER...LOWER HUMIDITIES...AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE 70S WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY WITH RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO QUICKLY RETURN HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS
AND DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID SOUTH. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE FRONT
SHOULD STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL POSITION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND DEGREE OF RIDGING. AT THIS TIME...FAVOR THE MUCH MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND PLAN TO KEEP
CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY AND WARM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CUT OFF ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING
NORTHEAST FROM THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST SHOULD
HELP TO INCREASE STORM CHANCES INTO SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WARM AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS
EVENING. VCSH WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR LEVELS AS THE FRONT NEARS EACH TAF SITE BUT
WILL SOON LIFT AFTER THE FRONT MATRICULATES THROUGH FROM NW TO SE
BY TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10K FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT BEGIN TO DECREASE AND VEER TO THE NORTH AS THE FRONT PASSES
EARLY TOMORROW.

JMP3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMRX 211749
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
149 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA SHIFTS EAST. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES EARLY TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AROUND IN THE
MORNING. CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS DROP BELOW VFR AT CHA
AND TYS IN THE MORNING AS STEADY RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN. VFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL 18Z AT TRI.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD



000
FXUS64 KMRX 211749
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
149 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA SHIFTS EAST. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES EARLY TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AROUND IN THE
MORNING. CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS DROP BELOW VFR AT CHA
AND TYS IN THE MORNING AS STEADY RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN. VFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL 18Z AT TRI.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KOHX 211735
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1235 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SE US SLOWLY ERODES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL
LOWERING OF THE CLOUD DECK AND EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS
ACRS THE AREA. COULD BE A LITTLE THUNDER AS WELL BUT NOT ENUF TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE THE WORST TUE
MORNING AS FRONT COMES THRU. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ALONG SOME
LOCAL IFR VSBY IN SHOWERS. RAPID IMPROVEMENT WILL OVERSPREAD FROM
THE NW BY AFTN.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

JOHNSTONE






000
FXUS64 KOHX 211707 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1207 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING IN THE ZFP PRODUCT AND TO DECREASE
CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS TO SLIGHT ONLY ACROSS LOCATIONS NEAR THE TN/AL
BORDER FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 849 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...
SOME LIGHT RETURNS NOTED ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF MID STATE ON RADAR
CURRENTLY. AIRMASS MORE MOIST THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING
BUT STILL RELATIVELY DRY IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...SO QUESTION
HOW MUCH IF THIS IS ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND...MAYBE THE
OCCASIONAL BIT OF LIGHT RAINFALL OR SPRINKLES. THUS...FOR LOCATIONS
APPROACHING THE TN RIVER VALLEY REGION...UPDATED THE SUITE OF
FORECAST PRODUCTS AND PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 635 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH MIDDLE TN THROUGH THIS
24-TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH
SHRA AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED TSRA AFFECTING CKV/BNA AS EARLY AS
22Z/00Z RESPECTIVELY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE BETWEEN
03-09Z FROM CKV TO BNA TO CSV. LOW MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD AS PRECIP COMES TO
AN END AND WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE WNW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN OK AND WHAT IT WILL MEAN FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. IT APPEARS THAT THE H5 WIND FIELD WEAKENS AS THE
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND WITH ONLY A MODEST
MOISTURE POOL TO WORK WITH...DOWNSTREAM SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
40S...AND WEAK FRONTAL ASCENT...A SCATTERED LOW END THUNDER CHANCE
THATS MOSTLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...LOOKS TO BE IN THE CARDS
FOR THIS EVENING. THE 00Z 4 KM WRF DEPICTION LOOKS THE MOST
LOGICAL FOR THE SET UP THE LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE ALLUDING
TO...AND WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH BNA AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...
WE WILL BE LOOKING AT A PRETTY PLEASANT MID WEEK WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER
70S AND AOA 80 BY FRIDAY.

OVERNIGHT THURSDAY A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE SHOULD PASS TO THE
NORTH OF THE TN VALLEY THAT SHOULD BRING OUR NEXT SHOT AT
STORMAGE. HOWEVER THE ORIENTATION OF THE PARENT H5 SYSTEM IS A BIT
DEEPER AND THE DEEP MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT IN THE EURO. IF ITS
102 HR FORECAST VERIFIED...STRONG STORMS LOOK LIKE THEY MAY BE IN
THE CARDS THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
COINCIDENT H5 PVA...BUT THE EURO INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE...LI`S IN THE
-5 RANGE AND CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG BUT LACKING DEEP MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT. SO WILL HOLD OFF FROM ADDING TOO MANY
SPECIFICS OTHER THAN THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD BE RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BASED OFF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS.

PASSED FRIDAY...MODEL DISAGREEMENT IS HIGH ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH BUT SUGGESTING A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS PROGRESSION
OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 211707 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1207 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING IN THE ZFP PRODUCT AND TO DECREASE
CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS TO SLIGHT ONLY ACROSS LOCATIONS NEAR THE TN/AL
BORDER FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 849 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...
SOME LIGHT RETURNS NOTED ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF MID STATE ON RADAR
CURRENTLY. AIRMASS MORE MOIST THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING
BUT STILL RELATIVELY DRY IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...SO QUESTION
HOW MUCH IF THIS IS ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND...MAYBE THE
OCCASIONAL BIT OF LIGHT RAINFALL OR SPRINKLES. THUS...FOR LOCATIONS
APPROACHING THE TN RIVER VALLEY REGION...UPDATED THE SUITE OF
FORECAST PRODUCTS AND PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 635 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH MIDDLE TN THROUGH THIS
24-TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH
SHRA AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED TSRA AFFECTING CKV/BNA AS EARLY AS
22Z/00Z RESPECTIVELY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE BETWEEN
03-09Z FROM CKV TO BNA TO CSV. LOW MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD AS PRECIP COMES TO
AN END AND WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE WNW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN OK AND WHAT IT WILL MEAN FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. IT APPEARS THAT THE H5 WIND FIELD WEAKENS AS THE
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND WITH ONLY A MODEST
MOISTURE POOL TO WORK WITH...DOWNSTREAM SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
40S...AND WEAK FRONTAL ASCENT...A SCATTERED LOW END THUNDER CHANCE
THATS MOSTLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...LOOKS TO BE IN THE CARDS
FOR THIS EVENING. THE 00Z 4 KM WRF DEPICTION LOOKS THE MOST
LOGICAL FOR THE SET UP THE LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE ALLUDING
TO...AND WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH BNA AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...
WE WILL BE LOOKING AT A PRETTY PLEASANT MID WEEK WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER
70S AND AOA 80 BY FRIDAY.

OVERNIGHT THURSDAY A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE SHOULD PASS TO THE
NORTH OF THE TN VALLEY THAT SHOULD BRING OUR NEXT SHOT AT
STORMAGE. HOWEVER THE ORIENTATION OF THE PARENT H5 SYSTEM IS A BIT
DEEPER AND THE DEEP MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT IN THE EURO. IF ITS
102 HR FORECAST VERIFIED...STRONG STORMS LOOK LIKE THEY MAY BE IN
THE CARDS THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
COINCIDENT H5 PVA...BUT THE EURO INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE...LI`S IN THE
-5 RANGE AND CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG BUT LACKING DEEP MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT. SO WILL HOLD OFF FROM ADDING TOO MANY
SPECIFICS OTHER THAN THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD BE RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BASED OFF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS.

PASSED FRIDAY...MODEL DISAGREEMENT IS HIGH ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH BUT SUGGESTING A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS PROGRESSION
OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
31






000
FXUS64 KMRX 211515
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1115 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN STATES
TODAY WITH WEAK FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WARMING A LITTLE FASTER THEN FORECAST BUT
INCREASED CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON MAY SLOW WARMING SOME.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60S AREA WIDE AND SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S
TO NEAR 80 BY MID AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 30S NE TO
LOWER 40S SOUTH AND WEST. CURRENT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE MOSTLY
FROM 40 TO 50 PERCENT EXCEPT BELOW 40 PERCENT IN PARTS OF SW VA.
VALUES OVER VA ARE ABOUT 5 PERCENT HIGHER THEN THEY WERE YESTERDAY
AT THIS TIME. LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE IN
THE NE SECTIONS DOWN TO AROUND 20 PERCENT BUT MODELS TRY TO
INCREASE MOISTURE LATER IN THE DAY. NASHVILLES SOUNDING IS NOT AS
DRY AS YESTERDAY BUT STILL SOME DRY AIR BETWEEN 600 AND 800 MB. NO
CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST ALTHOUGH UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD



000
FXUS64 KMRX 211515
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1115 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN STATES
TODAY WITH WEAK FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WARMING A LITTLE FASTER THEN FORECAST BUT
INCREASED CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON MAY SLOW WARMING SOME.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60S AREA WIDE AND SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S
TO NEAR 80 BY MID AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 30S NE TO
LOWER 40S SOUTH AND WEST. CURRENT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE MOSTLY
FROM 40 TO 50 PERCENT EXCEPT BELOW 40 PERCENT IN PARTS OF SW VA.
VALUES OVER VA ARE ABOUT 5 PERCENT HIGHER THEN THEY WERE YESTERDAY
AT THIS TIME. LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE IN
THE NE SECTIONS DOWN TO AROUND 20 PERCENT BUT MODELS TRY TO
INCREASE MOISTURE LATER IN THE DAY. NASHVILLES SOUNDING IS NOT AS
DRY AS YESTERDAY BUT STILL SOME DRY AIR BETWEEN 600 AND 800 MB. NO
CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST ALTHOUGH UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMEG 211513
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1013 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.
FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY WELL ON TRACK. INCREASED POPS A BIT BASED ON
RADAR COVERAGE AND TONED DOWN THE THUNDER WORDING TO ONLY SHOWERS
BEFORE NOON...THEN ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/


AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TODAY AND TUESDAY...WITH LOWS AROUND 60
TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST IT WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER BACK
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM
THE NORTH.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
MID SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER...LOWER HUMIDITIES...AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE 70S WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY WITH RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO QUICKLY RETURN HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS
AND DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID SOUTH. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE FRONT
SHOULD STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL POSITION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND DEGREE OF RIDGING. AT THIS TIME...FAVOR THE MUCH MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND PLAN TO KEEP
CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY AND WARM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CUT OFF ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING
NORTHEAST FROM THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST SHOULD
HELP TO INCREASE STORM CHANCES INTO SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WARM AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE STILL IN QUESTION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. FOR THAT REASON HAVE PLACED TEMPO`S IN THE TAFS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TUP WHERE LESS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. HAVE
INTRODUCED AN MVFR LAYER LATE TONIGHT...WHICH COULD BECOME BROKEN
NEAR 22/12Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST AT 6-10 KTS
VEERING MORE WESTERLY LATE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 211349 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
849 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
SOME LIGHT RETURNS NOTED ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF MID STATE ON RADAR
CURRENTLY. AIRMASS MORE MOIST THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING
BUT STILL RELATIVELY DRY IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...SO QUESTION
HOW MUCH IF THIS IS ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND...MAYBE THE
OCCASIONAL BIT OF LIGHT RAINFALL OR SPRINKLES. THUS...FOR LOCATIONS
APPROACHING THE TN RIVER VALLEY REGION...UPDATED THE SUITE OF
FORECAST PRODUCTS AND PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 635 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH MIDDLE TN THROUGH THIS
24-TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH
SHRA AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED TSRA AFFECTING CKV/BNA AS EARLY AS
22Z/00Z RESPECTIVELY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE BETWEEN
03-09Z FROM CKV TO BNA TO CSV. LOW MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD AS PRECIP COMES TO
AN END AND WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE WNW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN OK AND WHAT IT WILL MEAN FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. IT APPEARS THAT THE H5 WIND FIELD WEAKENS AS THE
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND WITH ONLY A MODEST
MOISTURE POOL TO WORK WITH...DOWNSTREAM SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
40S...AND WEAK FRONTAL ASCENT...A SCATTERED LOW END THUNDER CHANCE
THATS MOSTLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...LOOKS TO BE IN THE CARDS
FOR THIS EVENING. THE 00Z 4 KM WRF DEPICTION LOOKS THE MOST
LOGICAL FOR THE SET UP THE LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE ALLUDING
TO...AND WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH BNA AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...
WE WILL BE LOOKING AT A PRETTY PLEASANT MID WEEK WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER
70S AND AOA 80 BY FRIDAY.

OVERNIGHT THURSDAY A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE SHOULD PASS TO THE
NORTH OF THE TN VALLEY THAT SHOULD BRING OUR NEXT SHOT AT
STORMAGE. HOWEVER THE ORIENTATION OF THE PARENT H5 SYSTEM IS A BIT
DEEPER AND THE DEEP MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT IN THE EURO. IF ITS
102 HR FORECAST VERIFIED...STRONG STORMS LOOK LIKE THEY MAY BE IN
THE CARDS THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
COINCIDENT H5 PVA...BUT THE EURO INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE...LI`S IN THE
-5 RANGE AND CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG BUT LACKING DEEP MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT. SO WILL HOLD OFF FROM ADDING TOO MANY
SPECIFICS OTHER THAN THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD BE RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BASED OFF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS.

PASSED FRIDAY...MODEL DISAGREEMENT IS HIGH ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH BUT SUGGESTING A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS PROGRESSION
OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 211135
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
635 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH MIDDLE TN THROUGH THIS
24-TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH
SHRA AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED TSRA AFFECTING CKV/BNA AS EARLY AS
22Z/00Z RESPECTIVELY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE BETWEEN
03-09Z FROM CKV TO BNA TO CSV. LOW MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD AS PRECIP COMES TO
AN END AND WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE WNW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN OK AND WHAT IT WILL MEAN FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. IT APPEARS THAT THE H5 WIND FIELD WEAKENS AS THE
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND WITH ONLY A MODEST
MOISTURE POOL TO WORK WITH...DOWNSTREAM SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
40S...AND WEAK FRONTAL ASCENT...A SCATTERED LOW END THUNDER CHANCE
THATS MOSTLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...LOOKS TO BE IN THE CARDS
FOR THIS EVENING. THE 00Z 4 KM WRF DEPICTION LOOKS THE MOST
LOGICAL FOR THE SET UP THE LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE ALLUDING
TO...AND WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH BNA AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...
WE WILL BE LOOKING AT A PRETTY PLEASANT MID WEEK WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER
70S AND AOA 80 BY FRIDAY.

OVERNIGHT THURSDAY A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE SHOULD PASS TO THE
NORTH OF THE TN VALLEY THAT SHOULD BRING OUR NEXT SHOT AT
STORMAGE. HOWEVER THE ORIENTATION OF THE PARENT H5 SYSTEM IS A BIT
DEEPER AND THE DEEP MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT IN THE EURO. IF ITS
102 HR FORECAST VERIFIED...STRONG STORMS LOOK LIKE THEY MAY BE IN
THE CARDS THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
COINCIDENT H5 PVA...BUT THE EURO INSTABILITY PARAMATERS ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE...LI`S IN THE
-5 RANGE AND CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG BUT LACKING DEEP MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT. SO WILL HOLD OFF FROM ADDING TOO MANY
SPECIFICS OTHER THAN THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD BE RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BASED OFF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS.

PASSED FRIDAY...MODEL DISAGREEMENT IS HIGH ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH BUT SUGGESTING A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS PROGRESSION
OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AL






000
FXUS64 KOHX 211135
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
635 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH MIDDLE TN THROUGH THIS
24-TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH
SHRA AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED TSRA AFFECTING CKV/BNA AS EARLY AS
22Z/00Z RESPECTIVELY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE BETWEEN
03-09Z FROM CKV TO BNA TO CSV. LOW MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD AS PRECIP COMES TO
AN END AND WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE WNW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN OK AND WHAT IT WILL MEAN FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. IT APPEARS THAT THE H5 WIND FIELD WEAKENS AS THE
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND WITH ONLY A MODEST
MOISTURE POOL TO WORK WITH...DOWNSTREAM SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
40S...AND WEAK FRONTAL ASCENT...A SCATTERED LOW END THUNDER CHANCE
THATS MOSTLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...LOOKS TO BE IN THE CARDS
FOR THIS EVENING. THE 00Z 4 KM WRF DEPICTION LOOKS THE MOST
LOGICAL FOR THE SET UP THE LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE ALLUDING
TO...AND WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH BNA AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...
WE WILL BE LOOKING AT A PRETTY PLEASANT MID WEEK WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER
70S AND AOA 80 BY FRIDAY.

OVERNIGHT THURSDAY A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE SHOULD PASS TO THE
NORTH OF THE TN VALLEY THAT SHOULD BRING OUR NEXT SHOT AT
STORMAGE. HOWEVER THE ORIENTATION OF THE PARENT H5 SYSTEM IS A BIT
DEEPER AND THE DEEP MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT IN THE EURO. IF ITS
102 HR FORECAST VERIFIED...STRONG STORMS LOOK LIKE THEY MAY BE IN
THE CARDS THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
COINCIDENT H5 PVA...BUT THE EURO INSTABILITY PARAMATERS ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE...LI`S IN THE
-5 RANGE AND CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG BUT LACKING DEEP MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT. SO WILL HOLD OFF FROM ADDING TOO MANY
SPECIFICS OTHER THAN THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD BE RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BASED OFF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS.

PASSED FRIDAY...MODEL DISAGREEMENT IS HIGH ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH BUT SUGGESTING A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS PROGRESSION
OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AL






000
FXUS64 KOHX 211135
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
635 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH MIDDLE TN THROUGH THIS
24-TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH
SHRA AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED TSRA AFFECTING CKV/BNA AS EARLY AS
22Z/00Z RESPECTIVELY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE BETWEEN
03-09Z FROM CKV TO BNA TO CSV. LOW MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD AS PRECIP COMES TO
AN END AND WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE WNW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN OK AND WHAT IT WILL MEAN FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. IT APPEARS THAT THE H5 WIND FIELD WEAKENS AS THE
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND WITH ONLY A MODEST
MOISTURE POOL TO WORK WITH...DOWNSTREAM SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
40S...AND WEAK FRONTAL ASCENT...A SCATTERED LOW END THUNDER CHANCE
THATS MOSTLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...LOOKS TO BE IN THE CARDS
FOR THIS EVENING. THE 00Z 4 KM WRF DEPICTION LOOKS THE MOST
LOGICAL FOR THE SET UP THE LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE ALLUDING
TO...AND WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH BNA AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...
WE WILL BE LOOKING AT A PRETTY PLEASANT MID WEEK WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER
70S AND AOA 80 BY FRIDAY.

OVERNIGHT THURSDAY A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE SHOULD PASS TO THE
NORTH OF THE TN VALLEY THAT SHOULD BRING OUR NEXT SHOT AT
STORMAGE. HOWEVER THE ORIENTATION OF THE PARENT H5 SYSTEM IS A BIT
DEEPER AND THE DEEP MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT IN THE EURO. IF ITS
102 HR FORECAST VERIFIED...STRONG STORMS LOOK LIKE THEY MAY BE IN
THE CARDS THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
COINCIDENT H5 PVA...BUT THE EURO INSTABILITY PARAMATERS ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE...LI`S IN THE
-5 RANGE AND CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG BUT LACKING DEEP MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT. SO WILL HOLD OFF FROM ADDING TOO MANY
SPECIFICS OTHER THAN THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD BE RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BASED OFF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS.

PASSED FRIDAY...MODEL DISAGREEMENT IS HIGH ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH BUT SUGGESTING A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS PROGRESSION
OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AL






000
FXUS64 KOHX 211135
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
635 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH MIDDLE TN THROUGH THIS
24-TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH
SHRA AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED TSRA AFFECTING CKV/BNA AS EARLY AS
22Z/00Z RESPECTIVELY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE BETWEEN
03-09Z FROM CKV TO BNA TO CSV. LOW MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD AS PRECIP COMES TO
AN END AND WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE WNW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN OK AND WHAT IT WILL MEAN FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. IT APPEARS THAT THE H5 WIND FIELD WEAKENS AS THE
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND WITH ONLY A MODEST
MOISTURE POOL TO WORK WITH...DOWNSTREAM SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
40S...AND WEAK FRONTAL ASCENT...A SCATTERED LOW END THUNDER CHANCE
THATS MOSTLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...LOOKS TO BE IN THE CARDS
FOR THIS EVENING. THE 00Z 4 KM WRF DEPICTION LOOKS THE MOST
LOGICAL FOR THE SET UP THE LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE ALLUDING
TO...AND WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH BNA AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...
WE WILL BE LOOKING AT A PRETTY PLEASANT MID WEEK WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER
70S AND AOA 80 BY FRIDAY.

OVERNIGHT THURSDAY A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE SHOULD PASS TO THE
NORTH OF THE TN VALLEY THAT SHOULD BRING OUR NEXT SHOT AT
STORMAGE. HOWEVER THE ORIENTATION OF THE PARENT H5 SYSTEM IS A BIT
DEEPER AND THE DEEP MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT IN THE EURO. IF ITS
102 HR FORECAST VERIFIED...STRONG STORMS LOOK LIKE THEY MAY BE IN
THE CARDS THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
COINCIDENT H5 PVA...BUT THE EURO INSTABILITY PARAMATERS ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE...LI`S IN THE
-5 RANGE AND CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG BUT LACKING DEEP MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT. SO WILL HOLD OFF FROM ADDING TOO MANY
SPECIFICS OTHER THAN THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD BE RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BASED OFF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS.

PASSED FRIDAY...MODEL DISAGREEMENT IS HIGH ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH BUT SUGGESTING A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS PROGRESSION
OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AL






000
FXUS64 KMEG 211128
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
628 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TODAY AND TUESDAY...WITH LOWS AROUND 60
TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST IT WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER BACK
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM
THE NORTH.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
MID SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER...LOWER HUMIDITIES...AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE 70S WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY WITH RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO QUICKLY RETURN HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS
AND DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID SOUTH. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE FRONT
SHOULD STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL POSITION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND DEGREE OF RIDGING. AT THIS TIME...FAVOR THE MUCH MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND PLAN TO KEEP
CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY AND WARM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CUT OFF ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING
NORTHEAST FROM THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST SHOULD
HELP TO INCREASE STORM CHANCES INTO SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WARM AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE STILL IN QUESTION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. FOR THAT REASON HAVE PLACED TEMPO`S IN THE TAFS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TUP WHERE LESS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. HAVE
INTRODUCED AN MVFR LAYER LATE TONIGHT...WHICH COULD BECOME BROKEN
NEAR 22/12Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST AT 6-10 KTS
VEERING MORE WESTERLY LATE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMRX 211118
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
718 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH TONIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWERS AROUND LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD ALL
SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 211118
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
718 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH TONIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWERS AROUND LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD ALL
SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 211118
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
718 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH TONIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWERS AROUND LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD ALL
SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 211118
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
718 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH TONIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWERS AROUND LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD ALL
SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW




000
FXUS64 KOHX 210858
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
358 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN OK AND WHAT IT WILL MEAN FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. IT APPEARS THAT THE H5 WIND FIELD WEAKENS AS THE
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND WITH ONLY A MODEST
MOISTURE POOL TO WORK WITH...DOWNSTREAM SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
40S...AND WEAK FRONTAL ASCENT...A SCATTERED LOW END THUNDER CHANCE
THATS MOSTLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...LOOKS TO BE IN THE CARDS
FOR THIS EVENING. THE 00Z 4 KM WRF DEPICTION LOOKS THE MOST
LOGICAL FOR THE SET UP THE LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE ALLUDING
TO...AND WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH BNA AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...
WE WILL BE LOOKING AT A PRETTY PLEASANT MID WEEK WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER
70S AND AOA 80 BY FRIDAY.

OVERNIGHT THURSDAY A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE SHOULD PASS TO THE
NORTH OF THE TN VALLEY THAT SHOULD BRING OUR NEXT SHOT AT
STORMAGE. HOWEVER THE ORIENTATION OF THE PARENT H5 SYSTEM IS A BIT
DEEPER AND THE DEEP MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT IN THE EURO. IF ITS
102 HR FORECAST VERIFIED...STRONG STORMS LOOK LIKE THEY MAY BE IN
THE CARDS THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
COINCIDENT H5 PVA...BUT THE EURO INSTABILITY PARAMATERS ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE...LI`S IN THE
-5 RANGE AND CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG BUT LACKING DEEP MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT. SO WILL HOLD OFF FROM ADDING TOO MANY
SPECIFICS OTHER THAN THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD BE RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BASED OFF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS.

PASSED FRIDAY...MODEL DISAGREEMENT IS HIGH ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH BUT SUGGESTING A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS PROGRESSION
OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      80  61  74  44 /  20  60  60   0
CLARKSVILLE    78  60  72  42 /  30  60  20   0
CROSSVILLE     76  58  68  41 /  05  60  60   0
COLUMBIA       78  60  74  43 /  20  60  60   0
LAWRENCEBURG   79  60  74  44 /  20  60  60   0
WAVERLY        78  62  74  44 /  30  60  50   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

TB12






000
FXUS64 KMEG 210855
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
355 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TODAY AND TUESDAY...WITH LOWS AROUND 60
TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST IT WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER BACK
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM
THE NORTH.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
MID SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER...LOWER HUMIDITIES...AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE 70S WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY WITH RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO QUICKLY RETURN HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS
AND DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID SOUTH. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE FRONT
SHOULD STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL POSITION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND DEGREE OF RIDGING. AT THIS TIME...FAVOR THE MUCH MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND PLAN TO KEEP
CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY AND WARM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CUT OFF ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING
NORTHEAST FROM THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST SHOULD
HELP TO INCREASE STORM CHANCES INTO SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WARM AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOME LOCATIONS.  TIMING
OF PRECIPITATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED
IN NATURE WITH THE BEST TIME FRAME OF THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS. FOR
MEM IT WOULD EARLY EVENING.

TLSJR

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMRX 210803
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
400 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY
WILL BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL BE APPROACHING LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL SEE VARYING AMOUNTS OF
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...BUT STILL QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE WITH A
WARM AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND SOME SHOWERS WILL
BE AROUND...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS. INSTABILITY LOOKS QUITE WEAK...SO NO THUNDER INCLUDED
AT THIS TIME. WILL MAKE ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO MAV TEMPS FOR THE
SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY
INSIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE FEATURES WITH WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEEK WHILE ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDER. ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
MORE GARDEN VARIETY IN NATURE WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY AND LIMITED
SHEAR INDICATED IN THE MODELS. THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH DAYTIME PERIOD
THURSDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH PRESSES EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY. THOUGHT IT BEST WITH THIS SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER AS THE FRONT SLIDES
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHILE KEEPING A LOWER CHANCE POP FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO EXPECTED SLOW FRONTAL MOVEMENT THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FINAL SYSTEM OF THE LONG TERM APPROACHES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AS MOIST AIR IS LIFTED ALONG A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM`S MID LATITUDE CYCLONE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             79  57  74  47 /   0  30  60   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  57  73  45 /   0  30  70   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       78  57  73  43 /   0  40  70   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              79  52  73  43 /   0  30  70  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 210803
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
400 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY
WILL BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL BE APPROACHING LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL SEE VARYING AMOUNTS OF
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...BUT STILL QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE WITH A
WARM AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND SOME SHOWERS WILL
BE AROUND...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS. INSTABILITY LOOKS QUITE WEAK...SO NO THUNDER INCLUDED
AT THIS TIME. WILL MAKE ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO MAV TEMPS FOR THE
SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY
INSIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE FEATURES WITH WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEEK WHILE ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDER. ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
MORE GARDEN VARIETY IN NATURE WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY AND LIMITED
SHEAR INDICATED IN THE MODELS. THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH DAYTIME PERIOD
THURSDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH PRESSES EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY. THOUGHT IT BEST WITH THIS SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER AS THE FRONT SLIDES
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHILE KEEPING A LOWER CHANCE POP FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO EXPECTED SLOW FRONTAL MOVEMENT THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FINAL SYSTEM OF THE LONG TERM APPROACHES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AS MOIST AIR IS LIFTED ALONG A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM`S MID LATITUDE CYCLONE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             79  57  74  47 /   0  30  60   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  57  73  45 /   0  30  70   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       78  57  73  43 /   0  40  70   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              79  52  73  43 /   0  30  70  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




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