Home > Products > State Listing > Tennessee Data
Latest:
 AFDMEG |  AFDOHX |  AFDMRX |
  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMEG 191950
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
250 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT VERY
STRONG AND WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT IN
EAST TEXAS AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MORE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THIS EVENING AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING
WITH SHOWERS ENDING OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
DROP IN TO THE 40S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER FRONT WILL START TO DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH FAR
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY SO THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

BY FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL START TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY ENDING SATURDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT
SUNDAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

INITIAL WEATHER NEAR THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD...ALONG WITH TEMPO
SHOWERS AT MEM...MKL AND TUP. BY 00Z ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
VFR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING...WITH TEMPO IFR
VSBY AND GUSTY WEST WINDS. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR
HAIL AS WELL. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. LATE IN PERIOD CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TO
VFR. SW TO W WINDS WITH GUSTS EARLY. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN SOME
OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF STORMS...BUT WILL INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 191950
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
250 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT VERY
STRONG AND WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT IN
EAST TEXAS AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MORE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THIS EVENING AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING
WITH SHOWERS ENDING OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
DROP IN TO THE 40S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER FRONT WILL START TO DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH FAR
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY SO THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

BY FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL START TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY ENDING SATURDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT
SUNDAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

INITIAL WEATHER NEAR THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD...ALONG WITH TEMPO
SHOWERS AT MEM...MKL AND TUP. BY 00Z ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
VFR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING...WITH TEMPO IFR
VSBY AND GUSTY WEST WINDS. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR
HAIL AS WELL. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. LATE IN PERIOD CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TO
VFR. SW TO W WINDS WITH GUSTS EARLY. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN SOME
OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF STORMS...BUT WILL INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMRX 191918
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
318 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID-
SECTION OF THE NATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAUGHT UP WITH THE LONG-
WAVE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. A SERIES OF
WAVES/JETS HAVE EJECTED FROM THIS TROUGH. ONE SUCH WAVE IS MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA WITH A BAND OF RAIN BETWEEN
TRI AND TYS. ANOTHER WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WHICH
IS HELP TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF
NASHVILLE. THE LAST WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARD 12Z
MONDAY. THIS WAVE WILL PRODUCE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
MONDAY.

SINCE THE AIRMASS HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO RECOVER FROM FIRST BAND OF
SHOWERS...ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM...POSSIBLY SEVERE OVER THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE.
MAIN CONCERN STRONG GUST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HEAVY RAINS ALSO
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS.

FOR MONDAY...FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP
AIRMASS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAY SEE SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AS A FRONT EXITS THE
AREA AND THE UPPER LOW PULLS IN A WEAK IMPULSE.  LINGERING WEAK
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA WILL AID DEVELOPMENT AND CAN NOT RULE OUT
A STRAY STRONG STORM.  DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY.  WILL...THEN...TRANSITION INTO AN UNSETTLE
WEATHER PATTERN AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION.  TIMING OF THE WAVES REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS CENTER AROUND THURSDAY AND LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOR THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.  MAINLY EXPECTED SHOWERS WITH LIMITED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             61  72  48  70 /  60  40  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  60  70  46  66 /  60  60  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       60  69  46  67 /  60  60  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              57  71  44  63 /  60  60  40  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 191918
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
318 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID-
SECTION OF THE NATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAUGHT UP WITH THE LONG-
WAVE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. A SERIES OF
WAVES/JETS HAVE EJECTED FROM THIS TROUGH. ONE SUCH WAVE IS MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA WITH A BAND OF RAIN BETWEEN
TRI AND TYS. ANOTHER WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WHICH
IS HELP TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF
NASHVILLE. THE LAST WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARD 12Z
MONDAY. THIS WAVE WILL PRODUCE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
MONDAY.

SINCE THE AIRMASS HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO RECOVER FROM FIRST BAND OF
SHOWERS...ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM...POSSIBLY SEVERE OVER THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE.
MAIN CONCERN STRONG GUST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HEAVY RAINS ALSO
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS.

FOR MONDAY...FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP
AIRMASS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAY SEE SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AS A FRONT EXITS THE
AREA AND THE UPPER LOW PULLS IN A WEAK IMPULSE.  LINGERING WEAK
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA WILL AID DEVELOPMENT AND CAN NOT RULE OUT
A STRAY STRONG STORM.  DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY.  WILL...THEN...TRANSITION INTO AN UNSETTLE
WEATHER PATTERN AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION.  TIMING OF THE WAVES REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS CENTER AROUND THURSDAY AND LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOR THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.  MAINLY EXPECTED SHOWERS WITH LIMITED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             61  72  48  70 /  60  40  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  60  70  46  66 /  60  60  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       60  69  46  67 /  60  60  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              57  71  44  63 /  60  60  40  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOHX 191900
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
200 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AT 18Z SHOWS A 1000 MB LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, WITH A WARM FROM SITUATED TO OUR NORTH, A
COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, AND A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH JUST NOW CROSSING THE TENNESSEE RIVER THAT IS PROVIDING THE
FOCUS FOR A DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
STARTING TO SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF
NASHVILLE. LAPS SOUNDING FOR BNA AT 18Z SHOWS WEAK INSTABILITY,
WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF -3.3 AND A CAPE OF 962 J/KG. ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY MOIST, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.44 INCHES
AND A K-INDEX OF 34. LATEST HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED CELLS ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION COMES
THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 04Z AND 09Z. GIVEN THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT, THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS APPEARS
LOW, ALTHOUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE DOES REMAIN UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT, SO ISOLATED CASES OF SEVERE
ACTIVITY ARE STILL POSSIBLE. AFTER A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON
MONDAY, LOOK FOR A BRIEF RESPITE ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
EITHER CYCLONIC OR ZONAL, WARM ADVECTION WILL BE HARD TO COME BY,
AND SO TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      60  67  43  72 /  50  40  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    57  66  41  71 /  50  40  05  10
CROSSVILLE     58  62  42  63 /  50  60  20  10
COLUMBIA       59  68  43  73 /  60  30  10  10
LAWRENCEBURG   57  67  43  72 /  60  20  10  10
WAVERLY        57  68  42  72 /  60  30  05  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 191900
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
200 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AT 18Z SHOWS A 1000 MB LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, WITH A WARM FROM SITUATED TO OUR NORTH, A
COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, AND A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH JUST NOW CROSSING THE TENNESSEE RIVER THAT IS PROVIDING THE
FOCUS FOR A DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
STARTING TO SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF
NASHVILLE. LAPS SOUNDING FOR BNA AT 18Z SHOWS WEAK INSTABILITY,
WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF -3.3 AND A CAPE OF 962 J/KG. ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY MOIST, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.44 INCHES
AND A K-INDEX OF 34. LATEST HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED CELLS ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION COMES
THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 04Z AND 09Z. GIVEN THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT, THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS APPEARS
LOW, ALTHOUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE DOES REMAIN UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT, SO ISOLATED CASES OF SEVERE
ACTIVITY ARE STILL POSSIBLE. AFTER A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON
MONDAY, LOOK FOR A BRIEF RESPITE ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
EITHER CYCLONIC OR ZONAL, WARM ADVECTION WILL BE HARD TO COME BY,
AND SO TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      60  67  43  72 /  50  40  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    57  66  41  71 /  50  40  05  10
CROSSVILLE     58  62  42  63 /  50  60  20  10
COLUMBIA       59  68  43  73 /  60  30  10  10
LAWRENCEBURG   57  67  43  72 /  60  20  10  10
WAVERLY        57  68  42  72 /  60  30  05  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




000
FXUS64 KOHX 191831
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
131 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING BNA AND CKV FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BOUNCE FROM VFR TO MVFR LEVELS AS
PASSING STORMS IMPACT THOSE TAF SITES. CSV MAY STILL SEE SOME
PASSING SHOWERS...HOWEVER, COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY MUCH BETTER IN
THE WEST...AND ACCORDING TO HIGH RES SHORT RANGE MODELS IT WILL
LIKELY BE THAT WAY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. A SHORT
BREAK IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED AFTER 03Z...THEN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT SWINGS
THROUGH MIDDLE TN FROM 05Z AT CKV TO 12Z AT CSV. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11






000
FXUS64 KOHX 191831
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
131 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING BNA AND CKV FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BOUNCE FROM VFR TO MVFR LEVELS AS
PASSING STORMS IMPACT THOSE TAF SITES. CSV MAY STILL SEE SOME
PASSING SHOWERS...HOWEVER, COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY MUCH BETTER IN
THE WEST...AND ACCORDING TO HIGH RES SHORT RANGE MODELS IT WILL
LIKELY BE THAT WAY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. A SHORT
BREAK IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED AFTER 03Z...THEN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT SWINGS
THROUGH MIDDLE TN FROM 05Z AT CKV TO 12Z AT CSV. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11





000
FXUS64 KMRX 191737
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
137 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH JET STRUCTURE PLACING THE
REGION UNDER FAVORED DIVERGENCE ALOFT.

A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE...
CURRENTLY NEAR KNOXVILLE...TENNESSEE. GENEALLY VFR CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS. BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING TYS AND TRI REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO 4-6 MILES.

AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...PERIODS OF CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.
ANOTHER ROUND THIS EVENING...THEN ANOTHER TOWARD 12Z MONDAY.
MARGINAL MVFR-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.

A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH EXPECTED AT TYS
BETWEEN 19-20Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  62  74  49 / 100  50  50  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  72  61  74  48 / 100  60  50  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       71  61  72  47 / 100  60  50  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              70  55  74  46 / 100  60  70  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 191737
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
137 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH JET STRUCTURE PLACING THE
REGION UNDER FAVORED DIVERGENCE ALOFT.

A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE...
CURRENTLY NEAR KNOXVILLE...TENNESSEE. GENEALLY VFR CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS. BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING TYS AND TRI REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO 4-6 MILES.

AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...PERIODS OF CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.
ANOTHER ROUND THIS EVENING...THEN ANOTHER TOWARD 12Z MONDAY.
MARGINAL MVFR-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.

A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH EXPECTED AT TYS
BETWEEN 19-20Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  62  74  49 / 100  50  50  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  72  61  74  48 / 100  60  50  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       71  61  72  47 / 100  60  50  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              70  55  74  46 / 100  60  70  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 191721
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1221 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. A
FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. IT APPEARS THAT THE
NEXT BIG ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL THIS EVENING. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SEVERE
WEATHER FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS UPPER LOW AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID
SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA AND
FORCING THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD CURRENTLY IMPACTING MAINLY AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEAST WITH RAIN ENDING BY MID MORNING OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE ARKLATEX IS
FORCING A LINE OF CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA WHICH CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTHEAST. AFTER CAREFUL REVIEW OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL OUTRUN THE CURRENT CONVECTION
WITH THE CURRENTLY SOLID LINE BREAKING UP A BIT AS IT MOVES INTO
OUR REGION AROUND SUNRISE. PLAN TO CARRY HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS THIS SHORTWAVE
FEATURE TRAVERSES THE REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION AROUND MIDDAY WHICH
SHOULD CARRY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT ROTATES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO SUPPORT DECENT HEATING AND
ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF HEATING
EXPECTED COMBINED WITH LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS...EXPECTING SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A THIRD AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD ROTATE ACROSS
THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES...LOW AND
MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD STEEPEN. THIS WAVE WILL ACT UPON THE EXISTING FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE TO INITIATE NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX BY MID AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF EXPECTED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. STORM
MODE INITIALLY MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND SHORT BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS WHICH SHOULD TRANSITION TO A
SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS APPEAR TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE STORM EVOLUTION
WHEN SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS GREATEST. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED EASTERN ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE...AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI IN AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND PLAN TO CARRY THE OUTLOOK IN LOCAL
FORECAST PRODUCTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION.

BY LATER MONDAY MORNING...MOST AREAS WILL DRY OUT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DRY
AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.

THE END OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS MORE UNSETTLED AGAIN WITH INCREASED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

INITIAL WEATHER NEAR THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD...ALONG WITH TEMPO
SHOWERS AT MEM...MKL AND TUP. BY 00Z ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
VFR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING...WITH TEMPO IFR
VSBY AND GUSTY WEST WINDS. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR
HAIL AS WELL. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. LATE IN PERIOD CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TO
VFR. SW TO W WINDS WITH GUSTS EARLY. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN SOME
OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF STORMS...BUT WILL INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 191721
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1221 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. A
FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. IT APPEARS THAT THE
NEXT BIG ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL THIS EVENING. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SEVERE
WEATHER FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS UPPER LOW AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID
SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA AND
FORCING THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD CURRENTLY IMPACTING MAINLY AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEAST WITH RAIN ENDING BY MID MORNING OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE ARKLATEX IS
FORCING A LINE OF CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA WHICH CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTHEAST. AFTER CAREFUL REVIEW OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL OUTRUN THE CURRENT CONVECTION
WITH THE CURRENTLY SOLID LINE BREAKING UP A BIT AS IT MOVES INTO
OUR REGION AROUND SUNRISE. PLAN TO CARRY HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS THIS SHORTWAVE
FEATURE TRAVERSES THE REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION AROUND MIDDAY WHICH
SHOULD CARRY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT ROTATES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO SUPPORT DECENT HEATING AND
ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF HEATING
EXPECTED COMBINED WITH LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS...EXPECTING SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A THIRD AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD ROTATE ACROSS
THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES...LOW AND
MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD STEEPEN. THIS WAVE WILL ACT UPON THE EXISTING FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE TO INITIATE NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX BY MID AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF EXPECTED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. STORM
MODE INITIALLY MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND SHORT BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS WHICH SHOULD TRANSITION TO A
SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS APPEAR TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE STORM EVOLUTION
WHEN SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS GREATEST. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED EASTERN ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE...AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI IN AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND PLAN TO CARRY THE OUTLOOK IN LOCAL
FORECAST PRODUCTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION.

BY LATER MONDAY MORNING...MOST AREAS WILL DRY OUT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DRY
AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.

THE END OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS MORE UNSETTLED AGAIN WITH INCREASED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

INITIAL WEATHER NEAR THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD...ALONG WITH TEMPO
SHOWERS AT MEM...MKL AND TUP. BY 00Z ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
VFR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING...WITH TEMPO IFR
VSBY AND GUSTY WEST WINDS. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR
HAIL AS WELL. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. LATE IN PERIOD CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TO
VFR. SW TO W WINDS WITH GUSTS EARLY. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN SOME
OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF STORMS...BUT WILL INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 191721
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1221 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. A
FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. IT APPEARS THAT THE
NEXT BIG ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL THIS EVENING. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SEVERE
WEATHER FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS UPPER LOW AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID
SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA AND
FORCING THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD CURRENTLY IMPACTING MAINLY AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEAST WITH RAIN ENDING BY MID MORNING OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE ARKLATEX IS
FORCING A LINE OF CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA WHICH CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTHEAST. AFTER CAREFUL REVIEW OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL OUTRUN THE CURRENT CONVECTION
WITH THE CURRENTLY SOLID LINE BREAKING UP A BIT AS IT MOVES INTO
OUR REGION AROUND SUNRISE. PLAN TO CARRY HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS THIS SHORTWAVE
FEATURE TRAVERSES THE REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION AROUND MIDDAY WHICH
SHOULD CARRY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT ROTATES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO SUPPORT DECENT HEATING AND
ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF HEATING
EXPECTED COMBINED WITH LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS...EXPECTING SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A THIRD AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD ROTATE ACROSS
THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES...LOW AND
MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD STEEPEN. THIS WAVE WILL ACT UPON THE EXISTING FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE TO INITIATE NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX BY MID AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF EXPECTED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. STORM
MODE INITIALLY MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND SHORT BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS WHICH SHOULD TRANSITION TO A
SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS APPEAR TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE STORM EVOLUTION
WHEN SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS GREATEST. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED EASTERN ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE...AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI IN AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND PLAN TO CARRY THE OUTLOOK IN LOCAL
FORECAST PRODUCTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION.

BY LATER MONDAY MORNING...MOST AREAS WILL DRY OUT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DRY
AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.

THE END OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS MORE UNSETTLED AGAIN WITH INCREASED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

INITIAL WEATHER NEAR THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD...ALONG WITH TEMPO
SHOWERS AT MEM...MKL AND TUP. BY 00Z ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
VFR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING...WITH TEMPO IFR
VSBY AND GUSTY WEST WINDS. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR
HAIL AS WELL. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. LATE IN PERIOD CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TO
VFR. SW TO W WINDS WITH GUSTS EARLY. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN SOME
OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF STORMS...BUT WILL INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 191721
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1221 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. A
FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. IT APPEARS THAT THE
NEXT BIG ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL THIS EVENING. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SEVERE
WEATHER FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS UPPER LOW AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID
SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA AND
FORCING THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD CURRENTLY IMPACTING MAINLY AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEAST WITH RAIN ENDING BY MID MORNING OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE ARKLATEX IS
FORCING A LINE OF CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA WHICH CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTHEAST. AFTER CAREFUL REVIEW OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL OUTRUN THE CURRENT CONVECTION
WITH THE CURRENTLY SOLID LINE BREAKING UP A BIT AS IT MOVES INTO
OUR REGION AROUND SUNRISE. PLAN TO CARRY HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS THIS SHORTWAVE
FEATURE TRAVERSES THE REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION AROUND MIDDAY WHICH
SHOULD CARRY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT ROTATES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO SUPPORT DECENT HEATING AND
ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF HEATING
EXPECTED COMBINED WITH LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS...EXPECTING SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A THIRD AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD ROTATE ACROSS
THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES...LOW AND
MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD STEEPEN. THIS WAVE WILL ACT UPON THE EXISTING FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE TO INITIATE NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX BY MID AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF EXPECTED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. STORM
MODE INITIALLY MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND SHORT BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS WHICH SHOULD TRANSITION TO A
SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS APPEAR TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE STORM EVOLUTION
WHEN SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS GREATEST. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED EASTERN ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE...AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI IN AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND PLAN TO CARRY THE OUTLOOK IN LOCAL
FORECAST PRODUCTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION.

BY LATER MONDAY MORNING...MOST AREAS WILL DRY OUT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DRY
AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.

THE END OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS MORE UNSETTLED AGAIN WITH INCREASED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

INITIAL WEATHER NEAR THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD...ALONG WITH TEMPO
SHOWERS AT MEM...MKL AND TUP. BY 00Z ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
VFR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING...WITH TEMPO IFR
VSBY AND GUSTY WEST WINDS. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR
HAIL AS WELL. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. LATE IN PERIOD CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TO
VFR. SW TO W WINDS WITH GUSTS EARLY. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN SOME
OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF STORMS...BUT WILL INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 191654
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1154 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...

THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS PUSHED EAST OF NASHVILLE AND WILL
CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING LEAVING BEHIND A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS SCATTERED ACROSS THE CWA. THE SUN IS ALREADY PEAKING
THROUGH THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES NORTHWARD MORE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE MID 70S...ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. AM EXPECTING
TO SEE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE UNTIL
SUNSET. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE DURING THIS TIME WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS...MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-40. INSTABILITY DECREASES AFTER SUNDOWN AND WE MAY HAVE TO
WAIT FOR THE FRONT TO COME THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING TO PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL STORMS. TWEAKED POPS TO BE MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
HOURLY TEMPS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

SHRA WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL CONTINUE AT AIRPORTS THROUGH
14Z-15Z. WILL MENTION VCSH WITH MVFR CIGS AFTER 15Z AS ADDITIONAL
BUT MORE ISOLATED SHRA CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH VCTS AND
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 22Z AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AGAIN AND
VORT MAX APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND GUSTY BY LATE MORNING.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11






000
FXUS64 KOHX 191654
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1154 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...

THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS PUSHED EAST OF NASHVILLE AND WILL
CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING LEAVING BEHIND A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS SCATTERED ACROSS THE CWA. THE SUN IS ALREADY PEAKING
THROUGH THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES NORTHWARD MORE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE MID 70S...ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. AM EXPECTING
TO SEE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE UNTIL
SUNSET. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE DURING THIS TIME WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS...MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-40. INSTABILITY DECREASES AFTER SUNDOWN AND WE MAY HAVE TO
WAIT FOR THE FRONT TO COME THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING TO PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL STORMS. TWEAKED POPS TO BE MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
HOURLY TEMPS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

SHRA WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL CONTINUE AT AIRPORTS THROUGH
14Z-15Z. WILL MENTION VCSH WITH MVFR CIGS AFTER 15Z AS ADDITIONAL
BUT MORE ISOLATED SHRA CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH VCTS AND
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 22Z AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AGAIN AND
VORT MAX APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND GUSTY BY LATE MORNING.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11





000
FXUS64 KMEG 191518
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1018 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. A
FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. IT APPEARS THAT THE
NEXT BIG ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL THIS EVENING. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SEVERE
WEATHER FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...

A CONVECTIVE SQUALL LINE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE ARKLATEX
OVERNIGHT HAS PERSISTED MORE THAN MODELS ADVERTISED. THIS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING
LIKELY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THESE AREAS THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS MORNING.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS SENT.

JLH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS UPPER LOW AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID
SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA AND
FORCING THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD CURRENTLY IMPACTING MAINLY AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEAST WITH RAIN ENDING BY MID MORNING OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE ARKLATEX IS
FORCING A LINE OF CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA WHICH CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTHEAST. AFTER CAREFUL REVIEW OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL OUTRUN THE CURRENT CONVECTION
WITH THE CURRENTLY SOLID LINE BREAKING UP A BIT AS IT MOVES INTO
OUR REGION AROUND SUNRISE. PLAN TO CARRY HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS THIS SHORTWAVE
FEATURE TRAVERSES THE REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION AROUND MIDDAY WHICH
SHOULD CARRY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT ROTATES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO SUPPORT DECENT HEATING AND
ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF HEATING
EXPECTED COMBINED WITH LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS...EXPECTING SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A THIRD AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD ROTATE ACROSS
THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES...LOW AND
MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD STEEPEN. THIS WAVE WILL ACT UPON THE EXISTING FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE TO INITIATE NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX BY MID AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF EXPECTED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. STORM
MODE INITIALLY MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND SHORT BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS WHICH SHOULD TRANSITION TO A
SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS APPEAR TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE STORM EVOLUTION
WHEN SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS GREATEST. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED EASTERN ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE...AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI IN AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND PLAN TO CARRY THE OUTLOOK IN LOCAL
FORECAST PRODUCTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION.

BY LATER MONDAY MORNING...MOST AREAS WILL DRY OUT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DRY
AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.

THE END OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS MORE UNSETTLED AGAIN WITH INCREASED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ARE PRODUCING RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT TERMINALS.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS AT ALL SITES AS STRONGER
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. S/SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS TODAY AND VEER W WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE TONIGHT.

04

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 191518
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1018 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. A
FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. IT APPEARS THAT THE
NEXT BIG ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL THIS EVENING. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SEVERE
WEATHER FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...

A CONVECTIVE SQUALL LINE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE ARKLATEX
OVERNIGHT HAS PERSISTED MORE THAN MODELS ADVERTISED. THIS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING
LIKELY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THESE AREAS THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS MORNING.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS SENT.

JLH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS UPPER LOW AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID
SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA AND
FORCING THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD CURRENTLY IMPACTING MAINLY AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEAST WITH RAIN ENDING BY MID MORNING OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE ARKLATEX IS
FORCING A LINE OF CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA WHICH CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTHEAST. AFTER CAREFUL REVIEW OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL OUTRUN THE CURRENT CONVECTION
WITH THE CURRENTLY SOLID LINE BREAKING UP A BIT AS IT MOVES INTO
OUR REGION AROUND SUNRISE. PLAN TO CARRY HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS THIS SHORTWAVE
FEATURE TRAVERSES THE REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION AROUND MIDDAY WHICH
SHOULD CARRY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT ROTATES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO SUPPORT DECENT HEATING AND
ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF HEATING
EXPECTED COMBINED WITH LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS...EXPECTING SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A THIRD AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD ROTATE ACROSS
THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES...LOW AND
MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD STEEPEN. THIS WAVE WILL ACT UPON THE EXISTING FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE TO INITIATE NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX BY MID AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF EXPECTED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. STORM
MODE INITIALLY MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND SHORT BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS WHICH SHOULD TRANSITION TO A
SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS APPEAR TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE STORM EVOLUTION
WHEN SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS GREATEST. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED EASTERN ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE...AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI IN AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND PLAN TO CARRY THE OUTLOOK IN LOCAL
FORECAST PRODUCTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION.

BY LATER MONDAY MORNING...MOST AREAS WILL DRY OUT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DRY
AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.

THE END OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS MORE UNSETTLED AGAIN WITH INCREASED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ARE PRODUCING RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT TERMINALS.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS AT ALL SITES AS STRONGER
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. S/SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS TODAY AND VEER W WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE TONIGHT.

04

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 191433
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1033 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH JET STRUCTURE PLACING THE
REGION UNDER FAVORED DIVERGENCE ALOFT.

A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST
TENNESSEE...CURRENTLY NEAR ATHENS...TENNESSEE. AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ALABAMA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST MODELS SHOW CAPES INCREASING TO 1000
J/KG WITH GOOD SHEAR 0-1KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS AND SRH OVER 250
M2/S2. CONCERNED FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT JUST WEST OF THE
PLATEAU...THEN MOVING INTO THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT
ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE VALLEY.

BESIDES THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER...PWS ARE UNSEASONABLY HIGH.
SOME TRAINING OF CELLS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE AND FLASH FLOODING.

MAIN SOME MINOR CHANGES TO HIGHS TODAY...OTHERWISE...WILL MAINTAIN
HIGH POPS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  62  74  49 / 100  50  50  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  72  61  74  48 / 100  60  50  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       71  61  72  47 / 100  60  50  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              70  55  74  46 / 100  60  70  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 191433
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1033 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH JET STRUCTURE PLACING THE
REGION UNDER FAVORED DIVERGENCE ALOFT.

A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST
TENNESSEE...CURRENTLY NEAR ATHENS...TENNESSEE. AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ALABAMA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST MODELS SHOW CAPES INCREASING TO 1000
J/KG WITH GOOD SHEAR 0-1KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS AND SRH OVER 250
M2/S2. CONCERNED FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT JUST WEST OF THE
PLATEAU...THEN MOVING INTO THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT
ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE VALLEY.

BESIDES THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER...PWS ARE UNSEASONABLY HIGH.
SOME TRAINING OF CELLS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE AND FLASH FLOODING.

MAIN SOME MINOR CHANGES TO HIGHS TODAY...OTHERWISE...WILL MAINTAIN
HIGH POPS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  62  74  49 / 100  50  50  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  72  61  74  48 / 100  60  50  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       71  61  72  47 / 100  60  50  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              70  55  74  46 / 100  60  70  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOHX 191159
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
659 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

SHRA WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL CONTINUE AT AIRPORTS THROUGH
14Z-15Z. WILL MENTION VCSH WITH MVFR CIGS AFTER 15Z AS ADDITIONAL
BUT MORE ISOLATED SHRA CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH VCTS AND
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 22Z AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AGAIN AND
VORT MAX APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND GUSTY BY LATE MORNING.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING JUST
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD AND
MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE NNE. AS THE
MID STATE IS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...SHORT TERM MODELS LIKE THE NMM ARW AND
HRRR BREAK OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
MAIN BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE AFTER 00Z AND INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. AS THE
CAPE DIES OFF A BIT AFTER SUNSET...SHEAR DOES PICK UP A BIT.
THEREFORE SEVERE COULD OCCUR WITH ISOLATED CELLS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND CARRY OVER INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SINCE
LAPSE RATES ARENT TOO GREAT...PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS WITH ANY SEVERE. WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
THIS MORNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE A BIT IN AREAS
TOWARDS THE TN/KY BORDER. SPC HAS TRIMMED BACK THE SLIGHT RISK TO
REFLECT THIS AS WELL. IT APPEARS AREAS AROUND AND SOUTH OF I40 MAY
SEE THE SUN PEEK OUT THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT MAY HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE SHORT TERM MODELS THAT ARE
SHOWING SOME ISOLATED CELL SIGNATURES MAY BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION AND SUN ENHANCED DESTABILIZATION...HOWEVER CANT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY IF THE INSTABILITY IS REALIZED BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES. WITH THE INCREASED INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HAIL AGAIN MOVES BACK INTO THE SEVERE
PICTURE AS LAPSE RATES COULD IMPROVE. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
ALSO PICKING UP EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH
AROUND 21Z TODAY...AND WITH THE ADDITIONAL UPPER/MID LEVEL SUPPORT
SOME CONVECTION MIGHT FIRE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND COULD
GET SOME SEVERE STORMS STARTED EARLY.

AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...MODELS DIFFER JUST A BIT ON PRECIP
TIMING. STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PREFRONTAL PRECIP WILL FALL
AFTER 06Z UP TO 12Z. SOME MODELS EVEN HAVE SOME LINGERING PRECIP
INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. EXTENDED POPS A BIT INTO THE AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY TO REFLECT THIS.

TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY...HOWEVER ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME IMPACT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE POPS IN THE GRIDS NOW STARTING AROUND THAT
TIMEFRAME BEFORE THE MAIN FRONTAL PRECIP FROM THE GREAT LAKES LOW
MOVES IN LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY DRY AS THE REGION IS BETWEEN WAVES...BUT
AGAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIP MOVES IN LATER ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND WET...WITH SUNDAY POSSIBLY BEING DRY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55





000
FXUS64 KOHX 191159
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
659 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

SHRA WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL CONTINUE AT AIRPORTS THROUGH
14Z-15Z. WILL MENTION VCSH WITH MVFR CIGS AFTER 15Z AS ADDITIONAL
BUT MORE ISOLATED SHRA CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH VCTS AND
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 22Z AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AGAIN AND
VORT MAX APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND GUSTY BY LATE MORNING.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING JUST
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD AND
MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE NNE. AS THE
MID STATE IS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...SHORT TERM MODELS LIKE THE NMM ARW AND
HRRR BREAK OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
MAIN BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE AFTER 00Z AND INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. AS THE
CAPE DIES OFF A BIT AFTER SUNSET...SHEAR DOES PICK UP A BIT.
THEREFORE SEVERE COULD OCCUR WITH ISOLATED CELLS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND CARRY OVER INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SINCE
LAPSE RATES ARENT TOO GREAT...PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS WITH ANY SEVERE. WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
THIS MORNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE A BIT IN AREAS
TOWARDS THE TN/KY BORDER. SPC HAS TRIMMED BACK THE SLIGHT RISK TO
REFLECT THIS AS WELL. IT APPEARS AREAS AROUND AND SOUTH OF I40 MAY
SEE THE SUN PEEK OUT THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT MAY HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE SHORT TERM MODELS THAT ARE
SHOWING SOME ISOLATED CELL SIGNATURES MAY BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION AND SUN ENHANCED DESTABILIZATION...HOWEVER CANT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY IF THE INSTABILITY IS REALIZED BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES. WITH THE INCREASED INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HAIL AGAIN MOVES BACK INTO THE SEVERE
PICTURE AS LAPSE RATES COULD IMPROVE. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
ALSO PICKING UP EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH
AROUND 21Z TODAY...AND WITH THE ADDITIONAL UPPER/MID LEVEL SUPPORT
SOME CONVECTION MIGHT FIRE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND COULD
GET SOME SEVERE STORMS STARTED EARLY.

AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...MODELS DIFFER JUST A BIT ON PRECIP
TIMING. STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PREFRONTAL PRECIP WILL FALL
AFTER 06Z UP TO 12Z. SOME MODELS EVEN HAVE SOME LINGERING PRECIP
INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. EXTENDED POPS A BIT INTO THE AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY TO REFLECT THIS.

TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY...HOWEVER ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME IMPACT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE POPS IN THE GRIDS NOW STARTING AROUND THAT
TIMEFRAME BEFORE THE MAIN FRONTAL PRECIP FROM THE GREAT LAKES LOW
MOVES IN LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY DRY AS THE REGION IS BETWEEN WAVES...BUT
AGAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIP MOVES IN LATER ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND WET...WITH SUNDAY POSSIBLY BEING DRY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KOHX 191159
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
659 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

SHRA WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL CONTINUE AT AIRPORTS THROUGH
14Z-15Z. WILL MENTION VCSH WITH MVFR CIGS AFTER 15Z AS ADDITIONAL
BUT MORE ISOLATED SHRA CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH VCTS AND
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 22Z AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AGAIN AND
VORT MAX APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND GUSTY BY LATE MORNING.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING JUST
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD AND
MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE NNE. AS THE
MID STATE IS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...SHORT TERM MODELS LIKE THE NMM ARW AND
HRRR BREAK OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
MAIN BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE AFTER 00Z AND INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. AS THE
CAPE DIES OFF A BIT AFTER SUNSET...SHEAR DOES PICK UP A BIT.
THEREFORE SEVERE COULD OCCUR WITH ISOLATED CELLS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND CARRY OVER INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SINCE
LAPSE RATES ARENT TOO GREAT...PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS WITH ANY SEVERE. WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
THIS MORNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE A BIT IN AREAS
TOWARDS THE TN/KY BORDER. SPC HAS TRIMMED BACK THE SLIGHT RISK TO
REFLECT THIS AS WELL. IT APPEARS AREAS AROUND AND SOUTH OF I40 MAY
SEE THE SUN PEEK OUT THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT MAY HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE SHORT TERM MODELS THAT ARE
SHOWING SOME ISOLATED CELL SIGNATURES MAY BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION AND SUN ENHANCED DESTABILIZATION...HOWEVER CANT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY IF THE INSTABILITY IS REALIZED BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES. WITH THE INCREASED INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HAIL AGAIN MOVES BACK INTO THE SEVERE
PICTURE AS LAPSE RATES COULD IMPROVE. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
ALSO PICKING UP EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH
AROUND 21Z TODAY...AND WITH THE ADDITIONAL UPPER/MID LEVEL SUPPORT
SOME CONVECTION MIGHT FIRE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND COULD
GET SOME SEVERE STORMS STARTED EARLY.

AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...MODELS DIFFER JUST A BIT ON PRECIP
TIMING. STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PREFRONTAL PRECIP WILL FALL
AFTER 06Z UP TO 12Z. SOME MODELS EVEN HAVE SOME LINGERING PRECIP
INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. EXTENDED POPS A BIT INTO THE AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY TO REFLECT THIS.

TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY...HOWEVER ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME IMPACT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE POPS IN THE GRIDS NOW STARTING AROUND THAT
TIMEFRAME BEFORE THE MAIN FRONTAL PRECIP FROM THE GREAT LAKES LOW
MOVES IN LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY DRY AS THE REGION IS BETWEEN WAVES...BUT
AGAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIP MOVES IN LATER ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND WET...WITH SUNDAY POSSIBLY BEING DRY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55





000
FXUS64 KOHX 191159
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
659 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

SHRA WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL CONTINUE AT AIRPORTS THROUGH
14Z-15Z. WILL MENTION VCSH WITH MVFR CIGS AFTER 15Z AS ADDITIONAL
BUT MORE ISOLATED SHRA CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH VCTS AND
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 22Z AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AGAIN AND
VORT MAX APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND GUSTY BY LATE MORNING.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING JUST
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD AND
MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE NNE. AS THE
MID STATE IS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...SHORT TERM MODELS LIKE THE NMM ARW AND
HRRR BREAK OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
MAIN BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE AFTER 00Z AND INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. AS THE
CAPE DIES OFF A BIT AFTER SUNSET...SHEAR DOES PICK UP A BIT.
THEREFORE SEVERE COULD OCCUR WITH ISOLATED CELLS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND CARRY OVER INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SINCE
LAPSE RATES ARENT TOO GREAT...PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS WITH ANY SEVERE. WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
THIS MORNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE A BIT IN AREAS
TOWARDS THE TN/KY BORDER. SPC HAS TRIMMED BACK THE SLIGHT RISK TO
REFLECT THIS AS WELL. IT APPEARS AREAS AROUND AND SOUTH OF I40 MAY
SEE THE SUN PEEK OUT THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT MAY HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE SHORT TERM MODELS THAT ARE
SHOWING SOME ISOLATED CELL SIGNATURES MAY BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION AND SUN ENHANCED DESTABILIZATION...HOWEVER CANT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY IF THE INSTABILITY IS REALIZED BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES. WITH THE INCREASED INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HAIL AGAIN MOVES BACK INTO THE SEVERE
PICTURE AS LAPSE RATES COULD IMPROVE. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
ALSO PICKING UP EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH
AROUND 21Z TODAY...AND WITH THE ADDITIONAL UPPER/MID LEVEL SUPPORT
SOME CONVECTION MIGHT FIRE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND COULD
GET SOME SEVERE STORMS STARTED EARLY.

AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...MODELS DIFFER JUST A BIT ON PRECIP
TIMING. STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PREFRONTAL PRECIP WILL FALL
AFTER 06Z UP TO 12Z. SOME MODELS EVEN HAVE SOME LINGERING PRECIP
INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. EXTENDED POPS A BIT INTO THE AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY TO REFLECT THIS.

TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY...HOWEVER ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME IMPACT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE POPS IN THE GRIDS NOW STARTING AROUND THAT
TIMEFRAME BEFORE THE MAIN FRONTAL PRECIP FROM THE GREAT LAKES LOW
MOVES IN LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY DRY AS THE REGION IS BETWEEN WAVES...BUT
AGAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIP MOVES IN LATER ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND WET...WITH SUNDAY POSSIBLY BEING DRY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KMEG 191138
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
638 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...

A CONVECTIVE SQUALL LINE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE ARKLATEX
OVERNIGHT HAS PERSISTED MORE THAN MODELS ADVERTISED. THIS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING
LIKELY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THESE AREAS THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS MORNING.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS SENT.

JLH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS UPPER LOW AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID
SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA AND
FORCING THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD CURRENTLY IMPACTING MAINLY AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEAST WITH RAIN ENDING BY MID MORNING OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE ARKLATEX IS
FORCING A LINE OF CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA WHICH CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTHEAST. AFTER CAREFUL REVIEW OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL OUTRUN THE CURRENT CONVECTION
WITH THE CURRENTLY SOLID LINE BREAKING UP A BIT AS IT MOVES INTO
OUR REGION AROUND SUNRISE. PLAN TO CARRY HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS THIS SHORTWAVE
FEATURE TRAVERSES THE REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION AROUND MIDDAY WHICH
SHOULD CARRY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT ROTATES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO SUPPORT DECENT HEATING AND
ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF HEATING
EXPECTED COMBINED WITH LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS...EXPECTING SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A THIRD AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD ROTATE ACROSS
THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES...LOW AND
MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD STEEPEN. THIS WAVE WILL ACT UPON THE EXISTING FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE TO INITIATE NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX BY MID AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF EXPECTED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. STORM
MODE INITIALLY MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND SHORT BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS WHICH SHOULD TRANSITION TO A
SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS APPEAR TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE STORM EVOLUTION
WHEN SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS GREATEST. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED EASTERN ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE...AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI IN AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND PLAN TO CARRY THE OUTLOOK IN LOCAL
FORECAST PRODUCTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION.

BY LATER MONDAY MORNING...MOST AREAS WILL DRY OUT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DRY
AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.

THE END OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS MORE UNSETTLED AGAIN WITH INCREASED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ARE PRODUCING RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT TERMINALS.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS AT ALL SITES AS STRONGER
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. S/SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS TODAY AND VEER W WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE TONIGHT.

04

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 191138
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
638 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...

A CONVECTIVE SQUALL LINE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE ARKLATEX
OVERNIGHT HAS PERSISTED MORE THAN MODELS ADVERTISED. THIS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING
LIKELY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THESE AREAS THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS MORNING.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS SENT.

JLH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS UPPER LOW AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID
SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA AND
FORCING THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD CURRENTLY IMPACTING MAINLY AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEAST WITH RAIN ENDING BY MID MORNING OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE ARKLATEX IS
FORCING A LINE OF CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA WHICH CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTHEAST. AFTER CAREFUL REVIEW OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL OUTRUN THE CURRENT CONVECTION
WITH THE CURRENTLY SOLID LINE BREAKING UP A BIT AS IT MOVES INTO
OUR REGION AROUND SUNRISE. PLAN TO CARRY HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS THIS SHORTWAVE
FEATURE TRAVERSES THE REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION AROUND MIDDAY WHICH
SHOULD CARRY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT ROTATES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO SUPPORT DECENT HEATING AND
ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF HEATING
EXPECTED COMBINED WITH LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS...EXPECTING SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A THIRD AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD ROTATE ACROSS
THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES...LOW AND
MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD STEEPEN. THIS WAVE WILL ACT UPON THE EXISTING FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE TO INITIATE NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX BY MID AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF EXPECTED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. STORM
MODE INITIALLY MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND SHORT BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS WHICH SHOULD TRANSITION TO A
SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS APPEAR TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE STORM EVOLUTION
WHEN SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS GREATEST. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED EASTERN ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE...AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI IN AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND PLAN TO CARRY THE OUTLOOK IN LOCAL
FORECAST PRODUCTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION.

BY LATER MONDAY MORNING...MOST AREAS WILL DRY OUT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DRY
AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.

THE END OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS MORE UNSETTLED AGAIN WITH INCREASED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ARE PRODUCING RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT TERMINALS.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS AT ALL SITES AS STRONGER
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. S/SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS TODAY AND VEER W WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE TONIGHT.

04

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 191138
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
638 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...

A CONVECTIVE SQUALL LINE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE ARKLATEX
OVERNIGHT HAS PERSISTED MORE THAN MODELS ADVERTISED. THIS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING
LIKELY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THESE AREAS THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS MORNING.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS SENT.

JLH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS UPPER LOW AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID
SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA AND
FORCING THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD CURRENTLY IMPACTING MAINLY AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEAST WITH RAIN ENDING BY MID MORNING OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE ARKLATEX IS
FORCING A LINE OF CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA WHICH CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTHEAST. AFTER CAREFUL REVIEW OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL OUTRUN THE CURRENT CONVECTION
WITH THE CURRENTLY SOLID LINE BREAKING UP A BIT AS IT MOVES INTO
OUR REGION AROUND SUNRISE. PLAN TO CARRY HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS THIS SHORTWAVE
FEATURE TRAVERSES THE REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION AROUND MIDDAY WHICH
SHOULD CARRY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT ROTATES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO SUPPORT DECENT HEATING AND
ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF HEATING
EXPECTED COMBINED WITH LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS...EXPECTING SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A THIRD AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD ROTATE ACROSS
THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES...LOW AND
MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD STEEPEN. THIS WAVE WILL ACT UPON THE EXISTING FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE TO INITIATE NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX BY MID AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF EXPECTED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. STORM
MODE INITIALLY MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND SHORT BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS WHICH SHOULD TRANSITION TO A
SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS APPEAR TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE STORM EVOLUTION
WHEN SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS GREATEST. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED EASTERN ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE...AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI IN AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND PLAN TO CARRY THE OUTLOOK IN LOCAL
FORECAST PRODUCTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION.

BY LATER MONDAY MORNING...MOST AREAS WILL DRY OUT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DRY
AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.

THE END OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS MORE UNSETTLED AGAIN WITH INCREASED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ARE PRODUCING RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT TERMINALS.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS AT ALL SITES AS STRONGER
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. S/SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS TODAY AND VEER W WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE TONIGHT.

04

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 191138
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
638 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...

A CONVECTIVE SQUALL LINE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE ARKLATEX
OVERNIGHT HAS PERSISTED MORE THAN MODELS ADVERTISED. THIS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING
LIKELY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THESE AREAS THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS MORNING.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS SENT.

JLH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS UPPER LOW AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID
SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA AND
FORCING THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD CURRENTLY IMPACTING MAINLY AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEAST WITH RAIN ENDING BY MID MORNING OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE ARKLATEX IS
FORCING A LINE OF CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA WHICH CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTHEAST. AFTER CAREFUL REVIEW OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL OUTRUN THE CURRENT CONVECTION
WITH THE CURRENTLY SOLID LINE BREAKING UP A BIT AS IT MOVES INTO
OUR REGION AROUND SUNRISE. PLAN TO CARRY HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS THIS SHORTWAVE
FEATURE TRAVERSES THE REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION AROUND MIDDAY WHICH
SHOULD CARRY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT ROTATES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO SUPPORT DECENT HEATING AND
ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF HEATING
EXPECTED COMBINED WITH LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS...EXPECTING SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A THIRD AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD ROTATE ACROSS
THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES...LOW AND
MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD STEEPEN. THIS WAVE WILL ACT UPON THE EXISTING FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE TO INITIATE NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX BY MID AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF EXPECTED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. STORM
MODE INITIALLY MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND SHORT BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS WHICH SHOULD TRANSITION TO A
SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS APPEAR TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE STORM EVOLUTION
WHEN SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS GREATEST. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED EASTERN ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE...AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI IN AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND PLAN TO CARRY THE OUTLOOK IN LOCAL
FORECAST PRODUCTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION.

BY LATER MONDAY MORNING...MOST AREAS WILL DRY OUT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DRY
AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.

THE END OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS MORE UNSETTLED AGAIN WITH INCREASED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ARE PRODUCING RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT TERMINALS.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS AT ALL SITES AS STRONGER
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. S/SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS TODAY AND VEER W WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE TONIGHT.

04

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 191114
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
714 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WILL BRING
PREDOMINANT MVFR VIS AND CIGS THROUGH MOST THE DAY...WITH IFR AT
TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY AT ALL
SITES...AND MAY HAPPEN AT ANY TIME THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTH WINDS
MAY BECOME GUSTY AS WELL. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A SHORT RETURN TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS



000
FXUS64 KMRX 191114
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
714 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WILL BRING
PREDOMINANT MVFR VIS AND CIGS THROUGH MOST THE DAY...WITH IFR AT
TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY AT ALL
SITES...AND MAY HAPPEN AT ANY TIME THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTH WINDS
MAY BECOME GUSTY AS WELL. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A SHORT RETURN TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMEG 191111
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
611 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A CONVECTIVE SQUALL LINE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE ARKLATEX
OVERNIGHT HAS PERSISTED MORE THAN MODELS ADVERTISED. THIS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING
LIKELY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THESE AREAS THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS MORNING.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS SENT.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS UPPER LOW AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID
SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA AND
FORCING THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD CURRENTLY IMPACTING MAINLY AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEAST WITH RAIN ENDING BY MID MORNING OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE ARKLATEX IS
FORCING A LINE OF CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA WHICH CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTHEAST. AFTER CAREFUL REVIEW OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL OUTRUN THE CURRENT CONVECTION
WITH THE CURRENTLY SOLID LINE BREAKING UP A BIT AS IT MOVES INTO
OUR REGION AROUND SUNRISE. PLAN TO CARRY HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS THIS SHORTWAVE
FEATURE TRAVERSES THE REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION AROUND MIDDAY WHICH
SHOULD CARRY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT ROTATES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO SUPPORT DECENT HEATING AND
ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF HEATING
EXPECTED COMBINED WITH LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS...EXPECTING SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A THIRD AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD ROTATE ACROSS
THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES...LOW AND
MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD STEEPEN. THIS WAVE WILL ACT UPON THE EXISTING FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE TO INITIATE NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX BY MID AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF EXPECTED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. STORM
MODE INITIALLY MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND SHORT BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS WHICH SHOULD TRANSITION TO A
SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS APPEAR TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE STORM EVOLUTION
WHEN SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS GREATEST. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED EASTERN ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE...AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI IN AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND PLAN TO CARRY THE OUTLOOK IN LOCAL
FORECAST PRODUCTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION.

BY LATER MONDAY MORNING...MOST AREAS WILL DRY OUT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DRY
AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.

THE END OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS MORE UNSETTLED AGAIN WITH INCREASED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

CONDS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA. WIDESPREAD SHRAS WILL MOVE ACROSS KTUP AND KJBR WITH
LESSER COVERAGE TO THE WEST AT KJBR AND KMEM. THERE IS A RISK OF
AN EMBEDDED TSRA AT KTUP OVERNIGHT SO PLACED A VCTS THERE. CIGS
WILL DROP TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY SUNRISE AREAWIDE. THE
SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST SUN MORNING. EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS TO LINGER
IN THE MORNING WITH LEFTOVER SHRAS...IMPROVING TO VFR BY ABOUT
NOON. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH SUNDAY
EVENING WITH TSRA CHANCES INCREASING ESPECIALLY AT KMEM AND KJBR
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO WSW AT ABOUT 10 KTS ON
SUNDAY.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 191111
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
611 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A CONVECTIVE SQUALL LINE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE ARKLATEX
OVERNIGHT HAS PERSISTED MORE THAN MODELS ADVERTISED. THIS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING
LIKELY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THESE AREAS THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS MORNING.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS SENT.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS UPPER LOW AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID
SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA AND
FORCING THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD CURRENTLY IMPACTING MAINLY AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEAST WITH RAIN ENDING BY MID MORNING OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE ARKLATEX IS
FORCING A LINE OF CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA WHICH CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTHEAST. AFTER CAREFUL REVIEW OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL OUTRUN THE CURRENT CONVECTION
WITH THE CURRENTLY SOLID LINE BREAKING UP A BIT AS IT MOVES INTO
OUR REGION AROUND SUNRISE. PLAN TO CARRY HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS THIS SHORTWAVE
FEATURE TRAVERSES THE REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION AROUND MIDDAY WHICH
SHOULD CARRY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT ROTATES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO SUPPORT DECENT HEATING AND
ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF HEATING
EXPECTED COMBINED WITH LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS...EXPECTING SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A THIRD AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD ROTATE ACROSS
THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES...LOW AND
MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD STEEPEN. THIS WAVE WILL ACT UPON THE EXISTING FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE TO INITIATE NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX BY MID AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF EXPECTED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. STORM
MODE INITIALLY MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND SHORT BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS WHICH SHOULD TRANSITION TO A
SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS APPEAR TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE STORM EVOLUTION
WHEN SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS GREATEST. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED EASTERN ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE...AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI IN AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND PLAN TO CARRY THE OUTLOOK IN LOCAL
FORECAST PRODUCTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION.

BY LATER MONDAY MORNING...MOST AREAS WILL DRY OUT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DRY
AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.

THE END OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS MORE UNSETTLED AGAIN WITH INCREASED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

CONDS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA. WIDESPREAD SHRAS WILL MOVE ACROSS KTUP AND KJBR WITH
LESSER COVERAGE TO THE WEST AT KJBR AND KMEM. THERE IS A RISK OF
AN EMBEDDED TSRA AT KTUP OVERNIGHT SO PLACED A VCTS THERE. CIGS
WILL DROP TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY SUNRISE AREAWIDE. THE
SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST SUN MORNING. EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS TO LINGER
IN THE MORNING WITH LEFTOVER SHRAS...IMPROVING TO VFR BY ABOUT
NOON. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH SUNDAY
EVENING WITH TSRA CHANCES INCREASING ESPECIALLY AT KMEM AND KJBR
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO WSW AT ABOUT 10 KTS ON
SUNDAY.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 190857
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
357 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS UPPER LOW AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID
SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA AND
FORCING THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD CURRENTLY IMPACTING MAINLY AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEAST WITH RAIN ENDING BY MID MORNING OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE ARKLATEX IS
FORCING A LINE OF CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA WHICH CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTHEAST. AFTER CAREFUL REVIEW OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL OUTRUN THE CURRENT CONVECTION
WITH THE CURRENTLY SOLID LINE BREAKING UP A BIT AS IT MOVES INTO
OUR REGION AROUND SUNRISE. PLAN TO CARRY HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS THIS SHORTWAVE
FEATURE TRAVERSES THE REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION AROUND MIDDAY WHICH
SHOULD CARRY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT ROTATES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO SUPPORT DECENT HEATING AND
ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF HEATING
EXPECTED COMBINED WITH LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS...EXPECTING SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A THIRD AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD ROTATE ACROSS
THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES...LOW AND
MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD STEEPEN. THIS WAVE WILL ACT UPON THE EXISTING FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE TO INITIATE NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX BY MID AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF EXPECTED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. STORM
MODE INITIALLY MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND SHORT BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS WHICH SHOULD TRANSITION TO A
SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS APPEAR TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE STORM EVOLUTION
WHEN SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS GREATEST. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED EASTERN ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE...AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI IN AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND PLAN TO CARRY THE OUTLOOK IN LOCAL
FORECAST PRODUCTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION.

BY LATER MONDAY MORNING...MOST AREAS WILL DRY OUT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DRY
AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.

THE END OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS MORE UNSETTLED AGAIN WITH INCREASED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

CONDS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA. WIDESPREAD SHRAS WILL MOVE ACROSS KTUP AND KJBR WITH
LESSER COVERAGE TO THE WEST AT KJBR AND KMEM. THERE IS A RISK OF
AN EMBEDDED TSRA AT KTUP OVERNIGHT SO PLACED A VCTS THERE. CIGS
WILL DROP TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY SUNRISE AREAWIDE. THE
SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST SUN MORNING. EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS TO LINGER
IN THE MORNING WITH LEFTOVER SHRAS...IMPROVING TO VFR BY ABOUT
NOON. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH SUNDAY
EVENING WITH TSRA CHANCES INCREASING ESPECIALLY AT KMEM AND KJBR
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO WSW AT ABOUT 10 KTS ON
SUNDAY.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 190857
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
357 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS UPPER LOW AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID
SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA AND
FORCING THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD CURRENTLY IMPACTING MAINLY AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEAST WITH RAIN ENDING BY MID MORNING OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE ARKLATEX IS
FORCING A LINE OF CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA WHICH CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTHEAST. AFTER CAREFUL REVIEW OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL OUTRUN THE CURRENT CONVECTION
WITH THE CURRENTLY SOLID LINE BREAKING UP A BIT AS IT MOVES INTO
OUR REGION AROUND SUNRISE. PLAN TO CARRY HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS THIS SHORTWAVE
FEATURE TRAVERSES THE REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION AROUND MIDDAY WHICH
SHOULD CARRY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT ROTATES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO SUPPORT DECENT HEATING AND
ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF HEATING
EXPECTED COMBINED WITH LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS...EXPECTING SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A THIRD AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD ROTATE ACROSS
THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES...LOW AND
MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD STEEPEN. THIS WAVE WILL ACT UPON THE EXISTING FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE TO INITIATE NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX BY MID AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF EXPECTED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. STORM
MODE INITIALLY MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND SHORT BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS WHICH SHOULD TRANSITION TO A
SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS APPEAR TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE STORM EVOLUTION
WHEN SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS GREATEST. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED EASTERN ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE...AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI IN AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND PLAN TO CARRY THE OUTLOOK IN LOCAL
FORECAST PRODUCTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION.

BY LATER MONDAY MORNING...MOST AREAS WILL DRY OUT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DRY
AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.

THE END OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS MORE UNSETTLED AGAIN WITH INCREASED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

CONDS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA. WIDESPREAD SHRAS WILL MOVE ACROSS KTUP AND KJBR WITH
LESSER COVERAGE TO THE WEST AT KJBR AND KMEM. THERE IS A RISK OF
AN EMBEDDED TSRA AT KTUP OVERNIGHT SO PLACED A VCTS THERE. CIGS
WILL DROP TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY SUNRISE AREAWIDE. THE
SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST SUN MORNING. EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS TO LINGER
IN THE MORNING WITH LEFTOVER SHRAS...IMPROVING TO VFR BY ABOUT
NOON. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH SUNDAY
EVENING WITH TSRA CHANCES INCREASING ESPECIALLY AT KMEM AND KJBR
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO WSW AT ABOUT 10 KTS ON
SUNDAY.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 190827
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
327 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING JUST
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD AND
MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE NNE. AS THE
MID STATE IS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...SHORT TERM MODELS LIKE THE NMM ARW AND
HRRR BREAK OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
MAIN BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE AFTER 00Z AND INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. AS THE
CAPE DIES OFF A BIT AFTER SUNSET...SHEAR DOES PICK UP A BIT.
THEREFORE SEVERE COULD OCCUR WITH ISOLATED CELLS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND CARRY OVER INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SINCE
LAPSE RATES ARENT TOO GREAT...PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS WITH ANY SEVERE. WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
THIS MORNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE A BIT IN AREAS
TOWARDS THE TN/KY BORDER. SPC HAS TRIMMED BACK THE SLIGHT RISK TO
REFLECT THIS AS WELL. IT APPEARS AREAS AROUND AND SOUTH OF I40 MAY
SEE THE SUN PEEK OUT THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT MAY HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE SHORT TERM MODELS THAT ARE
SHOWING SOME ISOLATED CELL SIGNATURES MAY BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION AND SUN ENHANCED DESTABILIZATION...HOWEVER CANT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY IF THE INSTABILITY IS REALIZED BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES. WITH THE INCREASED INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HAIL AGAIN MOVES BACK INTO THE SEVERE
PICTURE AS LAPSE RATES COULD IMPROVE. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
ALSO PICKING UP EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH
AROUND 21Z TODAY...AND WITH THE ADDITIONAL UPPER/MID LEVEL SUPPORT
SOME CONVECTION MIGHT FIRE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND COULD
GET SOME SEVERE STORMS STARTED EARLY.

AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...MODELS DIFFER JUST A BIT ON PRECIP
TIMING. STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PREFRONTAL PRECIP WILL FALL
AFTER 06Z UP TO 12Z. SOME MODELS EVEN HAVE SOME LINGERING PRECIP
INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. EXTENDED POPS A BIT INTO THE AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY TO REFLECT THIS.

TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY...HOWEVER ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME IMPACT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE POPS IN THE GRIDS NOW STARTING AROUND THAT
TIMEFRAME BEFORE THE MAIN FRONTAL PRECIP FROM THE GREAT LAKES LOW
MOVES IN LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY DRY AS THE REGION IS BETWEEN WAVES...BUT
AGAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIP MOVES IN LATER ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND WET...WITH SUNDAY POSSIBLY BEING DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      76  60  68  45 /  80  60  40  10
CLARKSVILLE    73  59  64  43 /  80  60  40  10
CROSSVILLE     71  59  67  43 /  80  50  50  30
COLUMBIA       75  59  67  43 /  70  60  30  10
LAWRENCEBURG   74  58  66  44 /  60  60  30  10
WAVERLY        75  59  66  44 /  70  60  40  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BARNWELL





000
FXUS64 KOHX 190827
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
327 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING JUST
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD AND
MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE NNE. AS THE
MID STATE IS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...SHORT TERM MODELS LIKE THE NMM ARW AND
HRRR BREAK OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
MAIN BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE AFTER 00Z AND INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. AS THE
CAPE DIES OFF A BIT AFTER SUNSET...SHEAR DOES PICK UP A BIT.
THEREFORE SEVERE COULD OCCUR WITH ISOLATED CELLS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND CARRY OVER INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SINCE
LAPSE RATES ARENT TOO GREAT...PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS WITH ANY SEVERE. WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
THIS MORNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE A BIT IN AREAS
TOWARDS THE TN/KY BORDER. SPC HAS TRIMMED BACK THE SLIGHT RISK TO
REFLECT THIS AS WELL. IT APPEARS AREAS AROUND AND SOUTH OF I40 MAY
SEE THE SUN PEEK OUT THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT MAY HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE SHORT TERM MODELS THAT ARE
SHOWING SOME ISOLATED CELL SIGNATURES MAY BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION AND SUN ENHANCED DESTABILIZATION...HOWEVER CANT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY IF THE INSTABILITY IS REALIZED BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES. WITH THE INCREASED INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HAIL AGAIN MOVES BACK INTO THE SEVERE
PICTURE AS LAPSE RATES COULD IMPROVE. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
ALSO PICKING UP EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH
AROUND 21Z TODAY...AND WITH THE ADDITIONAL UPPER/MID LEVEL SUPPORT
SOME CONVECTION MIGHT FIRE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND COULD
GET SOME SEVERE STORMS STARTED EARLY.

AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...MODELS DIFFER JUST A BIT ON PRECIP
TIMING. STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PREFRONTAL PRECIP WILL FALL
AFTER 06Z UP TO 12Z. SOME MODELS EVEN HAVE SOME LINGERING PRECIP
INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. EXTENDED POPS A BIT INTO THE AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY TO REFLECT THIS.

TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY...HOWEVER ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME IMPACT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE POPS IN THE GRIDS NOW STARTING AROUND THAT
TIMEFRAME BEFORE THE MAIN FRONTAL PRECIP FROM THE GREAT LAKES LOW
MOVES IN LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY DRY AS THE REGION IS BETWEEN WAVES...BUT
AGAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIP MOVES IN LATER ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND WET...WITH SUNDAY POSSIBLY BEING DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      76  60  68  45 /  80  60  40  10
CLARKSVILLE    73  59  64  43 /  80  60  40  10
CROSSVILLE     71  59  67  43 /  80  50  50  30
COLUMBIA       75  59  67  43 /  70  60  30  10
LAWRENCEBURG   74  58  66  44 /  60  60  30  10
WAVERLY        75  59  66  44 /  70  60  40  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BARNWELL






000
FXUS64 KMRX 190733
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
333 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN BLOSSOMING OVER AL OVER THE PAST HOUR...AND EXPECT
THIS INTENSIFICATION TO CONTINUE AS AN UPPER JET STREAK NOSES INTO
THE SE AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER WEST TN STRENGTHENS THE LLJ.
AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET WILL PRODUCE
STRONG FORCING OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY. DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF
40 KTS AT 850 MB MAY DELAY PRECIP IN THE TRI-CITIES AREA UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL SOON BE OVERCOME BY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FORCING. INSTABILITY IS WEAK AT THIS TIME...BUT EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT. THIS MAIN AREA
OF LIFT BEGINS TO EXIT SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS BETWEEN 18-
21Z...AND NORTHERN SECTIONS INCLUDING TRI-CITIES BETWEEN 21Z-00Z.
THE NAM INDICATES A DRY WINDOW OF ABOUT 4-6 HOURS BEFORE BRINGING IN
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION...WHICH DEVELOPS OVER MIDDLE TN/NRN AL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THIS AREA MAY HAVE
THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AS INSTABILITY IS MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE...WITH MLCAPES REACHING NEAR 1500 J/KG SOUTH. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND BRN VALUES INDICATE SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS SUGGEST SOME
TORNADO POTENTIAL AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE DISCONNECT FROM THE
STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. PLUS...THE
GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS AREA AT ALL...SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH IT. AFTER CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY...WILL LOWER POPS BACK TO HIGH
CHANCES TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
BY MONDAY MORNING MOST OF THE ISOLATED STORMS THAT FORMED ALONG THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA OR WEAKENED
OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF
ARKANSAS AND MOVING ACROSS TENNESSEE. THIS LINE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS TENNESSEE AND HAVE LOST QUITE A BIT OF POWER BY
THE TIME IT MOVES INTO OUR CWA. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
CAUSING WINDS TO PICK UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. SHOULD SEE
WIDESPREAD WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS MIXED IN. AT
THIS POINT MODEL FORECASTS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS STAY
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE COLD
FRONT GETS CLOSER.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS MONDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT
THINK THAT THE BEST ENVIRONMENT/LIFT WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST
LEAVING US TO BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF SOMETHING
CAUSES THE FRONT/REMNANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO SLOW DOWN THEN OUR
ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT STORMS THAT COULD CAUSE DAMAGING WINDS AND
MAYBE EVEN SEVERE SIZE HAIL. AGAIN, THIS ALL DEPENDS ON THE LOCATION
OF THE FRONT, AND LIKELY THESE STORMS WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST IN THE
CAROLINAS BY MONDAY EVENING.

REGARDLESS OF WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH, DRIER AIR AND
CLEARER SKIES WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND IT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
KNOCKED BACK BY ABOUT 5 - 10 DEGREES WHEN COMPARING MONDAY HIGHS
WITH TUESDAY HIGHS. WE WILL GET A SHORT BREAK DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEST/NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS LATE
WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS, WITH BETTER CHANCES
BEING CONFINED TO NORTHEAST TENNESSEE/SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MEANDER INTO THE AREA AND STALL OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS LEADS TO A DECREASE IN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS LOCATION OF THIS FRONT WILL DETERMINE WHERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS
DEPICT THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
SATURDAY LEADING TO A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEKEND LIKELY BEING WET
AND CLOUDY. MODELS THEN SHOW DRY WEATHER MOVING IN TO START THE
WORKWEEK AT THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  62  74  49 / 100  50  50  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  76  61  74  48 / 100  50  50  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       74  61  72  47 / 100  50  50  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              74  55  74  46 / 100  50  70  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 190733
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
333 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN BLOSSOMING OVER AL OVER THE PAST HOUR...AND EXPECT
THIS INTENSIFICATION TO CONTINUE AS AN UPPER JET STREAK NOSES INTO
THE SE AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER WEST TN STRENGTHENS THE LLJ.
AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET WILL PRODUCE
STRONG FORCING OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY. DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF
40 KTS AT 850 MB MAY DELAY PRECIP IN THE TRI-CITIES AREA UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL SOON BE OVERCOME BY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FORCING. INSTABILITY IS WEAK AT THIS TIME...BUT EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT. THIS MAIN AREA
OF LIFT BEGINS TO EXIT SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS BETWEEN 18-
21Z...AND NORTHERN SECTIONS INCLUDING TRI-CITIES BETWEEN 21Z-00Z.
THE NAM INDICATES A DRY WINDOW OF ABOUT 4-6 HOURS BEFORE BRINGING IN
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION...WHICH DEVELOPS OVER MIDDLE TN/NRN AL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THIS AREA MAY HAVE
THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AS INSTABILITY IS MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE...WITH MLCAPES REACHING NEAR 1500 J/KG SOUTH. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND BRN VALUES INDICATE SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS SUGGEST SOME
TORNADO POTENTIAL AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE DISCONNECT FROM THE
STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. PLUS...THE
GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS AREA AT ALL...SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH IT. AFTER CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY...WILL LOWER POPS BACK TO HIGH
CHANCES TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
BY MONDAY MORNING MOST OF THE ISOLATED STORMS THAT FORMED ALONG THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA OR WEAKENED
OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF
ARKANSAS AND MOVING ACROSS TENNESSEE. THIS LINE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS TENNESSEE AND HAVE LOST QUITE A BIT OF POWER BY
THE TIME IT MOVES INTO OUR CWA. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
CAUSING WINDS TO PICK UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. SHOULD SEE
WIDESPREAD WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS MIXED IN. AT
THIS POINT MODEL FORECASTS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS STAY
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE COLD
FRONT GETS CLOSER.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS MONDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT
THINK THAT THE BEST ENVIRONMENT/LIFT WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST
LEAVING US TO BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF SOMETHING
CAUSES THE FRONT/REMNANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO SLOW DOWN THEN OUR
ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT STORMS THAT COULD CAUSE DAMAGING WINDS AND
MAYBE EVEN SEVERE SIZE HAIL. AGAIN, THIS ALL DEPENDS ON THE LOCATION
OF THE FRONT, AND LIKELY THESE STORMS WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST IN THE
CAROLINAS BY MONDAY EVENING.

REGARDLESS OF WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH, DRIER AIR AND
CLEARER SKIES WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND IT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
KNOCKED BACK BY ABOUT 5 - 10 DEGREES WHEN COMPARING MONDAY HIGHS
WITH TUESDAY HIGHS. WE WILL GET A SHORT BREAK DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEST/NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS LATE
WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS, WITH BETTER CHANCES
BEING CONFINED TO NORTHEAST TENNESSEE/SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MEANDER INTO THE AREA AND STALL OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS LEADS TO A DECREASE IN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS LOCATION OF THIS FRONT WILL DETERMINE WHERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS
DEPICT THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
SATURDAY LEADING TO A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEKEND LIKELY BEING WET
AND CLOUDY. MODELS THEN SHOW DRY WEATHER MOVING IN TO START THE
WORKWEEK AT THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  62  74  49 / 100  50  50  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  76  61  74  48 / 100  50  50  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       74  61  72  47 / 100  50  50  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              74  55  74  46 / 100  50  70  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 190733
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
333 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN BLOSSOMING OVER AL OVER THE PAST HOUR...AND EXPECT
THIS INTENSIFICATION TO CONTINUE AS AN UPPER JET STREAK NOSES INTO
THE SE AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER WEST TN STRENGTHENS THE LLJ.
AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET WILL PRODUCE
STRONG FORCING OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY. DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF
40 KTS AT 850 MB MAY DELAY PRECIP IN THE TRI-CITIES AREA UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL SOON BE OVERCOME BY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FORCING. INSTABILITY IS WEAK AT THIS TIME...BUT EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT. THIS MAIN AREA
OF LIFT BEGINS TO EXIT SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS BETWEEN 18-
21Z...AND NORTHERN SECTIONS INCLUDING TRI-CITIES BETWEEN 21Z-00Z.
THE NAM INDICATES A DRY WINDOW OF ABOUT 4-6 HOURS BEFORE BRINGING IN
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION...WHICH DEVELOPS OVER MIDDLE TN/NRN AL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THIS AREA MAY HAVE
THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AS INSTABILITY IS MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE...WITH MLCAPES REACHING NEAR 1500 J/KG SOUTH. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND BRN VALUES INDICATE SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS SUGGEST SOME
TORNADO POTENTIAL AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE DISCONNECT FROM THE
STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. PLUS...THE
GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS AREA AT ALL...SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH IT. AFTER CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY...WILL LOWER POPS BACK TO HIGH
CHANCES TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
BY MONDAY MORNING MOST OF THE ISOLATED STORMS THAT FORMED ALONG THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA OR WEAKENED
OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF
ARKANSAS AND MOVING ACROSS TENNESSEE. THIS LINE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS TENNESSEE AND HAVE LOST QUITE A BIT OF POWER BY
THE TIME IT MOVES INTO OUR CWA. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
CAUSING WINDS TO PICK UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. SHOULD SEE
WIDESPREAD WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS MIXED IN. AT
THIS POINT MODEL FORECASTS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS STAY
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE COLD
FRONT GETS CLOSER.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS MONDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT
THINK THAT THE BEST ENVIRONMENT/LIFT WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST
LEAVING US TO BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF SOMETHING
CAUSES THE FRONT/REMNANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO SLOW DOWN THEN OUR
ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT STORMS THAT COULD CAUSE DAMAGING WINDS AND
MAYBE EVEN SEVERE SIZE HAIL. AGAIN, THIS ALL DEPENDS ON THE LOCATION
OF THE FRONT, AND LIKELY THESE STORMS WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST IN THE
CAROLINAS BY MONDAY EVENING.

REGARDLESS OF WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH, DRIER AIR AND
CLEARER SKIES WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND IT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
KNOCKED BACK BY ABOUT 5 - 10 DEGREES WHEN COMPARING MONDAY HIGHS
WITH TUESDAY HIGHS. WE WILL GET A SHORT BREAK DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEST/NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS LATE
WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS, WITH BETTER CHANCES
BEING CONFINED TO NORTHEAST TENNESSEE/SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MEANDER INTO THE AREA AND STALL OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS LEADS TO A DECREASE IN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS LOCATION OF THIS FRONT WILL DETERMINE WHERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS
DEPICT THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
SATURDAY LEADING TO A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEKEND LIKELY BEING WET
AND CLOUDY. MODELS THEN SHOW DRY WEATHER MOVING IN TO START THE
WORKWEEK AT THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  62  74  49 / 100  50  50  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  76  61  74  48 / 100  50  50  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       74  61  72  47 / 100  50  50  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              74  55  74  46 / 100  50  70  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 190733
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
333 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN BLOSSOMING OVER AL OVER THE PAST HOUR...AND EXPECT
THIS INTENSIFICATION TO CONTINUE AS AN UPPER JET STREAK NOSES INTO
THE SE AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER WEST TN STRENGTHENS THE LLJ.
AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET WILL PRODUCE
STRONG FORCING OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY. DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF
40 KTS AT 850 MB MAY DELAY PRECIP IN THE TRI-CITIES AREA UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL SOON BE OVERCOME BY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FORCING. INSTABILITY IS WEAK AT THIS TIME...BUT EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT. THIS MAIN AREA
OF LIFT BEGINS TO EXIT SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS BETWEEN 18-
21Z...AND NORTHERN SECTIONS INCLUDING TRI-CITIES BETWEEN 21Z-00Z.
THE NAM INDICATES A DRY WINDOW OF ABOUT 4-6 HOURS BEFORE BRINGING IN
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION...WHICH DEVELOPS OVER MIDDLE TN/NRN AL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THIS AREA MAY HAVE
THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AS INSTABILITY IS MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE...WITH MLCAPES REACHING NEAR 1500 J/KG SOUTH. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND BRN VALUES INDICATE SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS SUGGEST SOME
TORNADO POTENTIAL AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE DISCONNECT FROM THE
STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. PLUS...THE
GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS AREA AT ALL...SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH IT. AFTER CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY...WILL LOWER POPS BACK TO HIGH
CHANCES TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
BY MONDAY MORNING MOST OF THE ISOLATED STORMS THAT FORMED ALONG THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA OR WEAKENED
OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF
ARKANSAS AND MOVING ACROSS TENNESSEE. THIS LINE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS TENNESSEE AND HAVE LOST QUITE A BIT OF POWER BY
THE TIME IT MOVES INTO OUR CWA. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
CAUSING WINDS TO PICK UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. SHOULD SEE
WIDESPREAD WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS MIXED IN. AT
THIS POINT MODEL FORECASTS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS STAY
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE COLD
FRONT GETS CLOSER.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS MONDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT
THINK THAT THE BEST ENVIRONMENT/LIFT WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST
LEAVING US TO BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF SOMETHING
CAUSES THE FRONT/REMNANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO SLOW DOWN THEN OUR
ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT STORMS THAT COULD CAUSE DAMAGING WINDS AND
MAYBE EVEN SEVERE SIZE HAIL. AGAIN, THIS ALL DEPENDS ON THE LOCATION
OF THE FRONT, AND LIKELY THESE STORMS WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST IN THE
CAROLINAS BY MONDAY EVENING.

REGARDLESS OF WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH, DRIER AIR AND
CLEARER SKIES WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND IT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
KNOCKED BACK BY ABOUT 5 - 10 DEGREES WHEN COMPARING MONDAY HIGHS
WITH TUESDAY HIGHS. WE WILL GET A SHORT BREAK DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEST/NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS LATE
WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS, WITH BETTER CHANCES
BEING CONFINED TO NORTHEAST TENNESSEE/SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MEANDER INTO THE AREA AND STALL OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS LEADS TO A DECREASE IN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS LOCATION OF THIS FRONT WILL DETERMINE WHERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS
DEPICT THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
SATURDAY LEADING TO A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEKEND LIKELY BEING WET
AND CLOUDY. MODELS THEN SHOW DRY WEATHER MOVING IN TO START THE
WORKWEEK AT THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  62  74  49 / 100  50  50  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  76  61  74  48 / 100  50  50  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       74  61  72  47 / 100  50  50  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              74  55  74  46 / 100  50  70  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 190733
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
333 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN BLOSSOMING OVER AL OVER THE PAST HOUR...AND EXPECT
THIS INTENSIFICATION TO CONTINUE AS AN UPPER JET STREAK NOSES INTO
THE SE AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER WEST TN STRENGTHENS THE LLJ.
AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET WILL PRODUCE
STRONG FORCING OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY. DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF
40 KTS AT 850 MB MAY DELAY PRECIP IN THE TRI-CITIES AREA UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL SOON BE OVERCOME BY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FORCING. INSTABILITY IS WEAK AT THIS TIME...BUT EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT. THIS MAIN AREA
OF LIFT BEGINS TO EXIT SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS BETWEEN 18-
21Z...AND NORTHERN SECTIONS INCLUDING TRI-CITIES BETWEEN 21Z-00Z.
THE NAM INDICATES A DRY WINDOW OF ABOUT 4-6 HOURS BEFORE BRINGING IN
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION...WHICH DEVELOPS OVER MIDDLE TN/NRN AL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THIS AREA MAY HAVE
THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AS INSTABILITY IS MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE...WITH MLCAPES REACHING NEAR 1500 J/KG SOUTH. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND BRN VALUES INDICATE SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS SUGGEST SOME
TORNADO POTENTIAL AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE DISCONNECT FROM THE
STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. PLUS...THE
GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS AREA AT ALL...SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH IT. AFTER CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY...WILL LOWER POPS BACK TO HIGH
CHANCES TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
BY MONDAY MORNING MOST OF THE ISOLATED STORMS THAT FORMED ALONG THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA OR WEAKENED
OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF
ARKANSAS AND MOVING ACROSS TENNESSEE. THIS LINE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS TENNESSEE AND HAVE LOST QUITE A BIT OF POWER BY
THE TIME IT MOVES INTO OUR CWA. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
CAUSING WINDS TO PICK UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. SHOULD SEE
WIDESPREAD WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS MIXED IN. AT
THIS POINT MODEL FORECASTS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS STAY
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE COLD
FRONT GETS CLOSER.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS MONDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT
THINK THAT THE BEST ENVIRONMENT/LIFT WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST
LEAVING US TO BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF SOMETHING
CAUSES THE FRONT/REMNANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO SLOW DOWN THEN OUR
ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT STORMS THAT COULD CAUSE DAMAGING WINDS AND
MAYBE EVEN SEVERE SIZE HAIL. AGAIN, THIS ALL DEPENDS ON THE LOCATION
OF THE FRONT, AND LIKELY THESE STORMS WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST IN THE
CAROLINAS BY MONDAY EVENING.

REGARDLESS OF WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH, DRIER AIR AND
CLEARER SKIES WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND IT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
KNOCKED BACK BY ABOUT 5 - 10 DEGREES WHEN COMPARING MONDAY HIGHS
WITH TUESDAY HIGHS. WE WILL GET A SHORT BREAK DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEST/NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS LATE
WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS, WITH BETTER CHANCES
BEING CONFINED TO NORTHEAST TENNESSEE/SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MEANDER INTO THE AREA AND STALL OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS LEADS TO A DECREASE IN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS LOCATION OF THIS FRONT WILL DETERMINE WHERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS
DEPICT THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
SATURDAY LEADING TO A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEKEND LIKELY BEING WET
AND CLOUDY. MODELS THEN SHOW DRY WEATHER MOVING IN TO START THE
WORKWEEK AT THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  62  74  49 / 100  50  50  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  76  61  74  48 / 100  50  50  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       74  61  72  47 / 100  50  50  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              74  55  74  46 / 100  50  70  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 190534
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
134 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS IS
SPREADING NORTH ACROSS AL/GA. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO CHA. TS AND IFR VIS/CIGS ARE
EXPECTED THERE BEFORE 12Z. AT TYS AND TRI...A STRENGTHENING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHER CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE OVERCOME AS HEAVIER PRECIP MOVES IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...AND WILL SHIFT WINDS TO
THE S-SW WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE. A BREAK IN THE PRECIP IS
EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON SOUTH AND EVENING NORTH...THEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS



000
FXUS64 KMRX 190534
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
134 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS IS
SPREADING NORTH ACROSS AL/GA. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO CHA. TS AND IFR VIS/CIGS ARE
EXPECTED THERE BEFORE 12Z. AT TYS AND TRI...A STRENGTHENING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHER CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE OVERCOME AS HEAVIER PRECIP MOVES IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...AND WILL SHIFT WINDS TO
THE S-SW WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE. A BREAK IN THE PRECIP IS
EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON SOUTH AND EVENING NORTH...THEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMEG 190446
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1146 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 956 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. THE SFC LOW AND FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE CWA BY SUNRISE. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CAN/T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING AS WELL. WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT SO FAR MOST AREA HAVE REMAINED DRY.

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH SOUTH
ALABAMA AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT RAPIDLY NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS IT DOES
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG
AND AHEAD OF IT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

ON SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE SOME WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL ENTER WESTERN ARKANSAS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING
THE MAIN THREATS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY WITH RAIN ENDING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. BY MONDAY NIGHT
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI ON THURSDAY
SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

THE FRONT WILL START TO SLOWLY MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
FRIDAY AND REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA NEXT SATURDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE
TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

ARS

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

CONDS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA. WIDESPREAD SHRAS WILL MOVE ACROSS KTUP AND KJBR WITH
LESSER COVERAGE TO THE WEST AT KJBR AND KMEM. THERE IS A RISK OF
AN EMBEDDED TSRA AT KTUP OVERNIGHT SO PLACED A VCTS THERE. CIGS
WILL DROP TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY SUNRISE AREAWIDE. THE
SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST SUN MORNING. EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS TO LINGER
IN THE MORNING WITH LEFTOVER SHRAS...IMPROVING TO VFR BY ABOUT
NOON. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH SUNDAY
EVENING WITH TSRA CHANCES INCREASING ESPECIALLY AT KMEM AND KJBR
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO WSW AT ABOUT 10 KTS ON
SUNDAY.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 190435
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1135 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...BNA/CKV/CSV...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT INTO MID TN OVERNIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
LOOK FOR -SHRA WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO DEVELOP AROUND 08Z...WITH
TEMPO IFR AND SOME LIFR 10Z-15Z. THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WILL
LIFT NORTH OF MID TN BY 18Z. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCATTERED TSRA...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO INCREASE SHWR/TSTM CHANCES
FROM SW TO NE REST OF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
SKY...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS ALSO. REMAINDER OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CURRENT REGIONAL
SFC OBS...SATELLITE...AND MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST IN
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...THUS MAINTAINING ISO SHWRS/TSTMS THRU AT
LEAST THE MID EVENING HRS. BULK OF SHWR/TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD FROM
THE SW TO THE NE ACROSS THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IT WILL INFLUENCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THEIR TREK NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TN. HRRR IS FORECASTING
SCATTERED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
WAVE OF PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE SOUTH
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM
THIS PAST WEEK`S RAINFALL...WE COULD SEE CREEKS AND STREAMS RISE
PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WATCH FOR MINOR
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE STORMS AROUND...NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE TONIGHT.

BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTH OF OUR AREA. LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY
INHIBIT INSTABILITY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP ENOUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW
70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND MID 70S ELSEWHERE. THIS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY SPC HAS THE MID-STATE IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WHICH STRENGTHEN OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HEAD NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN ON TUESDAY
AND GIVES US A MUCH NEEDED DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ENTERS THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE AREA. COULD SEE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS THAT MOISTURE PUSHES
SOUTH...THEN ANOTHER SURFACE LOW BRINGS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 190306 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1006 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO INCREASE SHWR/TSTM CHANCES
FROM SW TO NE REST OF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
SKY...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS ALSO. REMAINDER OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 633 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...BNA/CKV/CSV...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT INTO MID TN OVERNIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED TSRA. LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO DEVELOP AROUND
06Z...DROPPING TO IFR AND SOME LIFR WITH POCKETS OF +SHRA BY 11Z.
THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE ARA BY 18Z...WITH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
SUNDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TSRA...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CURRENT REGIONAL
SFC OBS...SATELLITE...AND MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST IN
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...THUS MAINTAINING ISO SHWRS/TSTMS THRU AT
LEAST THE MID EVENING HRS. BULK OF SHWR/TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD FROM
THE SW TO THE NE ACROSS THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IT WILL INFLUENCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THEIR TREK NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TN. HRRR IS FORECASTING
SCATTERED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
WAVE OF PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE SOUTH
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM
THIS PAST WEEK`S RAINFALL...WE COULD SEE CREEKS AND STREAMS RISE
PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WATCH FOR MINOR
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE STORMS AROUND...NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE TONIGHT.

BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTH OF OUR AREA. LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY
INHIBIT INSTABILITY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP ENOUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW
70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND MID 70S ELSEWHERE. THIS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY SPC HAS THE MID-STATE IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WHICH STRENGTHEN OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HEAD NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN ON TUESDAY
AND GIVES US A MUCH NEEDED DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ENTERS THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE AREA. COULD SEE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS THAT MOISTURE PUSHES
SOUTH...THEN ANOTHER SURFACE LOW BRINGS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 190306 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1006 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO INCREASE SHWR/TSTM CHANCES
FROM SW TO NE REST OF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
SKY...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS ALSO. REMAINDER OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 633 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...BNA/CKV/CSV...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT INTO MID TN OVERNIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED TSRA. LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO DEVELOP AROUND
06Z...DROPPING TO IFR AND SOME LIFR WITH POCKETS OF +SHRA BY 11Z.
THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE ARA BY 18Z...WITH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
SUNDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TSRA...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CURRENT REGIONAL
SFC OBS...SATELLITE...AND MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST IN
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...THUS MAINTAINING ISO SHWRS/TSTMS THRU AT
LEAST THE MID EVENING HRS. BULK OF SHWR/TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD FROM
THE SW TO THE NE ACROSS THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IT WILL INFLUENCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THEIR TREK NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TN. HRRR IS FORECASTING
SCATTERED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
WAVE OF PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE SOUTH
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM
THIS PAST WEEK`S RAINFALL...WE COULD SEE CREEKS AND STREAMS RISE
PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WATCH FOR MINOR
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE STORMS AROUND...NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE TONIGHT.

BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTH OF OUR AREA. LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY
INHIBIT INSTABILITY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP ENOUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW
70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND MID 70S ELSEWHERE. THIS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY SPC HAS THE MID-STATE IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WHICH STRENGTHEN OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HEAD NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN ON TUESDAY
AND GIVES US A MUCH NEEDED DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ENTERS THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE AREA. COULD SEE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS THAT MOISTURE PUSHES
SOUTH...THEN ANOTHER SURFACE LOW BRINGS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KMEG 190256
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
956 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. THE SFC LOW AND FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE CWA BY SUNRISE. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CAN/T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING AS WELL. WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT SO FAR MOST AREA HAVE REMAINED DRY.

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH SOUTH
ALABAMA AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT RAPIDLY NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS IT DOES
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG
AND AHEAD OF IT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

ON SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE SOME WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL ENTER WESTERN ARKANSAS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING
THE MAIN THREATS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY WITH RAIN ENDING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. BY MONDAY NIGHT
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI ON THURSDAY
SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

THE FRONT WILL START TO SLOWLY MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
FRIDAY AND REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA NEXT SATURDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE
TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS AT ALL SITES ATTM. CONDS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA AND WIDESPREAD SHRAS
DEVELOP. THERE COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED TSRAS BUT FOR NOW THINK
THAT COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT VCTS AT THE TERMINALS. CIGS
WILL DROP TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR OVERNIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL
PUSH EAST SUN MORNING AND CONDS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY NOON.
LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL OCCUR AFTER
THIS TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO WSW AND BECOME GUSTY ON
SUNDAY.

SJM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 190256
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
956 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. THE SFC LOW AND FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE CWA BY SUNRISE. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CAN/T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING AS WELL. WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT SO FAR MOST AREA HAVE REMAINED DRY.

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH SOUTH
ALABAMA AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT RAPIDLY NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS IT DOES
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG
AND AHEAD OF IT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

ON SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE SOME WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL ENTER WESTERN ARKANSAS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING
THE MAIN THREATS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY WITH RAIN ENDING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. BY MONDAY NIGHT
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI ON THURSDAY
SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

THE FRONT WILL START TO SLOWLY MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
FRIDAY AND REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA NEXT SATURDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE
TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS AT ALL SITES ATTM. CONDS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA AND WIDESPREAD SHRAS
DEVELOP. THERE COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED TSRAS BUT FOR NOW THINK
THAT COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT VCTS AT THE TERMINALS. CIGS
WILL DROP TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR OVERNIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL
PUSH EAST SUN MORNING AND CONDS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY NOON.
LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL OCCUR AFTER
THIS TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO WSW AND BECOME GUSTY ON
SUNDAY.

SJM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 190256
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
956 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. THE SFC LOW AND FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE CWA BY SUNRISE. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CAN/T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING AS WELL. WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT SO FAR MOST AREA HAVE REMAINED DRY.

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH SOUTH
ALABAMA AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT RAPIDLY NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS IT DOES
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG
AND AHEAD OF IT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

ON SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE SOME WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL ENTER WESTERN ARKANSAS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING
THE MAIN THREATS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY WITH RAIN ENDING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. BY MONDAY NIGHT
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI ON THURSDAY
SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

THE FRONT WILL START TO SLOWLY MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
FRIDAY AND REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA NEXT SATURDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE
TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS AT ALL SITES ATTM. CONDS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA AND WIDESPREAD SHRAS
DEVELOP. THERE COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED TSRAS BUT FOR NOW THINK
THAT COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT VCTS AT THE TERMINALS. CIGS
WILL DROP TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR OVERNIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL
PUSH EAST SUN MORNING AND CONDS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY NOON.
LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL OCCUR AFTER
THIS TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO WSW AND BECOME GUSTY ON
SUNDAY.

SJM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 190256
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
956 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. THE SFC LOW AND FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE CWA BY SUNRISE. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CAN/T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING AS WELL. WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT SO FAR MOST AREA HAVE REMAINED DRY.

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH SOUTH
ALABAMA AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT RAPIDLY NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS IT DOES
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG
AND AHEAD OF IT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

ON SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE SOME WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL ENTER WESTERN ARKANSAS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING
THE MAIN THREATS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY WITH RAIN ENDING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. BY MONDAY NIGHT
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI ON THURSDAY
SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

THE FRONT WILL START TO SLOWLY MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
FRIDAY AND REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA NEXT SATURDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE
TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS AT ALL SITES ATTM. CONDS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA AND WIDESPREAD SHRAS
DEVELOP. THERE COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED TSRAS BUT FOR NOW THINK
THAT COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT VCTS AT THE TERMINALS. CIGS
WILL DROP TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR OVERNIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL
PUSH EAST SUN MORNING AND CONDS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY NOON.
LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL OCCUR AFTER
THIS TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO WSW AND BECOME GUSTY ON
SUNDAY.

SJM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 190120 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
920 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANT CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE MOUNTAINS EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON IS GRADUALLY DYING WITH THE SETTING SUN. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ATTENTION WILL THEN QUICKLY TURN TO
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE MOVING IN LATER
TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN
RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTH FROM WESTERN TENNESSEE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DUE TO THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE
ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND WORK ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EXPAND FROM SW TO NE OVER THE COURSE OF
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT
WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. HAVE ORIENTED THE GRIDS TO SHOW THE
MORE FAVORED POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEY INITIALLY...AND THEN
EXPAND THEM FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONT AFTER 09Z. LOWS WILL BE
VERY MILD...AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             64  77  61  72 / 100  80  40  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  62  74  60  71 / 100  90  40  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       62  74  60  70 / 100  90  40  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              59  68  56  69 /  70 100  60  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP



000
FXUS64 KMRX 190120 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
920 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANT CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE MOUNTAINS EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON IS GRADUALLY DYING WITH THE SETTING SUN. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ATTENTION WILL THEN QUICKLY TURN TO
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE MOVING IN LATER
TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN
RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTH FROM WESTERN TENNESSEE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DUE TO THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE
ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND WORK ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EXPAND FROM SW TO NE OVER THE COURSE OF
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT
WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. HAVE ORIENTED THE GRIDS TO SHOW THE
MORE FAVORED POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEY INITIALLY...AND THEN
EXPAND THEM FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONT AFTER 09Z. LOWS WILL BE
VERY MILD...AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             64  77  61  72 / 100  80  40  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  62  74  60  71 / 100  90  40  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       62  74  60  70 / 100  90  40  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              59  68  56  69 /  70 100  60  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 190120 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
920 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANT CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE MOUNTAINS EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON IS GRADUALLY DYING WITH THE SETTING SUN. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ATTENTION WILL THEN QUICKLY TURN TO
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE MOVING IN LATER
TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN
RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTH FROM WESTERN TENNESSEE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DUE TO THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE
ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND WORK ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EXPAND FROM SW TO NE OVER THE COURSE OF
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT
WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. HAVE ORIENTED THE GRIDS TO SHOW THE
MORE FAVORED POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEY INITIALLY...AND THEN
EXPAND THEM FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONT AFTER 09Z. LOWS WILL BE
VERY MILD...AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             64  77  61  72 / 100  80  40  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  62  74  60  71 / 100  90  40  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       62  74  60  70 / 100  90  40  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              59  68  56  69 /  70 100  60  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 190120 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
920 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANT CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE MOUNTAINS EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON IS GRADUALLY DYING WITH THE SETTING SUN. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ATTENTION WILL THEN QUICKLY TURN TO
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE MOVING IN LATER
TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN
RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTH FROM WESTERN TENNESSEE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DUE TO THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE
ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND WORK ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EXPAND FROM SW TO NE OVER THE COURSE OF
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT
WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. HAVE ORIENTED THE GRIDS TO SHOW THE
MORE FAVORED POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEY INITIALLY...AND THEN
EXPAND THEM FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONT AFTER 09Z. LOWS WILL BE
VERY MILD...AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             64  77  61  72 / 100  80  40  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  62  74  60  71 / 100  90  40  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       62  74  60  70 / 100  90  40  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              59  68  56  69 /  70 100  60  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 190120 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
920 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANT CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE MOUNTAINS EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON IS GRADUALLY DYING WITH THE SETTING SUN. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ATTENTION WILL THEN QUICKLY TURN TO
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE MOVING IN LATER
TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN
RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTH FROM WESTERN TENNESSEE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DUE TO THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE
ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND WORK ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EXPAND FROM SW TO NE OVER THE COURSE OF
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT
WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. HAVE ORIENTED THE GRIDS TO SHOW THE
MORE FAVORED POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEY INITIALLY...AND THEN
EXPAND THEM FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONT AFTER 09Z. LOWS WILL BE
VERY MILD...AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             64  77  61  72 / 100  80  40  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  62  74  60  71 / 100  90  40  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       62  74  60  70 / 100  90  40  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              59  68  56  69 /  70 100  60  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMEG 182354
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
654 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT SO FAR MOST AREA HAVE REMAINED DRY.

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH SOUTH
ALABAMA AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT RAPIDLY NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS IT DOES
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG
AND AHEAD OF IT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

ON SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE SOME WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL ENTER WESTERN ARKANSAS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING
THE MAIN THREATS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY WITH RAIN ENDING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. BY MONDAY NIGHT
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI ON THURSDAY
SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

THE FRONT WILL START TO SLOWLY MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
FRIDAY AND REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA NEXT SATURDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE
TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS AT ALL SITES ATTM. CONDS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA AND WIDESPREAD SHRAS
DEVELOP. THERE COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED TSRAS BUT FOR NOW THINK
THAT COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT VCTS AT THE TERMINALS. CIGS
WILL DROP TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR OVERNIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL
PUSH EAST SUN MORNING AND CONDS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY NOON.
LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL OCCUR AFTER
THIS TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO WSW AND BECOME GUSTY ON
SUNDAY.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 182354
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
654 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT SO FAR MOST AREA HAVE REMAINED DRY.

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH SOUTH
ALABAMA AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT RAPIDLY NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS IT DOES
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG
AND AHEAD OF IT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

ON SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE SOME WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL ENTER WESTERN ARKANSAS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING
THE MAIN THREATS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY WITH RAIN ENDING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. BY MONDAY NIGHT
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI ON THURSDAY
SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

THE FRONT WILL START TO SLOWLY MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
FRIDAY AND REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA NEXT SATURDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE
TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS AT ALL SITES ATTM. CONDS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA AND WIDESPREAD SHRAS
DEVELOP. THERE COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED TSRAS BUT FOR NOW THINK
THAT COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT VCTS AT THE TERMINALS. CIGS
WILL DROP TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR OVERNIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL
PUSH EAST SUN MORNING AND CONDS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY NOON.
LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL OCCUR AFTER
THIS TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO WSW AND BECOME GUSTY ON
SUNDAY.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 182333
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
633 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...BNA/CKV/CSV...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT INTO MID TN OVERNIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED TSRA. LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO DEVELOP AROUND
06Z...DROPPING TO IFR AND SOME LIFR WITH POCKETS OF +SHRA BY 11Z.
THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE ARA BY 18Z...WITH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
SUNDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TSRA...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CURRENT REGIONAL
SFC OBS...SATELLITE...AND MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST IN
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...THUS MAINTAINING ISO SHWRS/TSTMS THRU AT
LEAST THE MID EVENING HRS. BULK OF SHWR/TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD FROM
THE SW TO THE NE ACROSS THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IT WILL INFLUENCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THEIR TREK NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TN. HRRR IS FORECASTING
SCATTERED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
WAVE OF PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE SOUTH
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM
THIS PAST WEEK`S RAINFALL...WE COULD SEE CREEKS AND STREAMS RISE
PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WATCH FOR MINOR
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE STORMS AROUND...NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE TONIGHT.

BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTH OF OUR AREA. LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY
INHIBIT INSTABILITY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP ENOUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW
70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND MID 70S ELSEWHERE. THIS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY SPC HAS THE MID-STATE IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WHICH STRENGTHEN OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HEAD NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN ON TUESDAY
AND GIVES US A MUCH NEEDED DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ENTERS THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE AREA. COULD SEE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS THAT MOISTURE PUSHES
SOUTH...THEN ANOTHER SURFACE LOW BRINGS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 182333
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
633 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...BNA/CKV/CSV...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT INTO MID TN OVERNIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED TSRA. LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO DEVELOP AROUND
06Z...DROPPING TO IFR AND SOME LIFR WITH POCKETS OF +SHRA BY 11Z.
THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE ARA BY 18Z...WITH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
SUNDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TSRA...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CURRENT REGIONAL
SFC OBS...SATELLITE...AND MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST IN
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...THUS MAINTAINING ISO SHWRS/TSTMS THRU AT
LEAST THE MID EVENING HRS. BULK OF SHWR/TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD FROM
THE SW TO THE NE ACROSS THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IT WILL INFLUENCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THEIR TREK NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TN. HRRR IS FORECASTING
SCATTERED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
WAVE OF PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE SOUTH
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM
THIS PAST WEEK`S RAINFALL...WE COULD SEE CREEKS AND STREAMS RISE
PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WATCH FOR MINOR
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE STORMS AROUND...NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE TONIGHT.

BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTH OF OUR AREA. LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY
INHIBIT INSTABILITY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP ENOUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW
70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND MID 70S ELSEWHERE. THIS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY SPC HAS THE MID-STATE IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WHICH STRENGTHEN OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HEAD NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN ON TUESDAY
AND GIVES US A MUCH NEEDED DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ENTERS THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE AREA. COULD SEE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS THAT MOISTURE PUSHES
SOUTH...THEN ANOTHER SURFACE LOW BRINGS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 182333
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
633 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...BNA/CKV/CSV...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT INTO MID TN OVERNIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED TSRA. LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO DEVELOP AROUND
06Z...DROPPING TO IFR AND SOME LIFR WITH POCKETS OF +SHRA BY 11Z.
THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE ARA BY 18Z...WITH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
SUNDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TSRA...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CURRENT REGIONAL
SFC OBS...SATELLITE...AND MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST IN
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...THUS MAINTAINING ISO SHWRS/TSTMS THRU AT
LEAST THE MID EVENING HRS. BULK OF SHWR/TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD FROM
THE SW TO THE NE ACROSS THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IT WILL INFLUENCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THEIR TREK NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TN. HRRR IS FORECASTING
SCATTERED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
WAVE OF PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE SOUTH
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM
THIS PAST WEEK`S RAINFALL...WE COULD SEE CREEKS AND STREAMS RISE
PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WATCH FOR MINOR
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE STORMS AROUND...NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE TONIGHT.

BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTH OF OUR AREA. LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY
INHIBIT INSTABILITY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP ENOUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW
70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND MID 70S ELSEWHERE. THIS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY SPC HAS THE MID-STATE IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WHICH STRENGTHEN OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HEAD NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN ON TUESDAY
AND GIVES US A MUCH NEEDED DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ENTERS THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE AREA. COULD SEE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS THAT MOISTURE PUSHES
SOUTH...THEN ANOTHER SURFACE LOW BRINGS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 182333
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
633 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...BNA/CKV/CSV...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT INTO MID TN OVERNIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED TSRA. LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO DEVELOP AROUND
06Z...DROPPING TO IFR AND SOME LIFR WITH POCKETS OF +SHRA BY 11Z.
THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE ARA BY 18Z...WITH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
SUNDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TSRA...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CURRENT REGIONAL
SFC OBS...SATELLITE...AND MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST IN
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...THUS MAINTAINING ISO SHWRS/TSTMS THRU AT
LEAST THE MID EVENING HRS. BULK OF SHWR/TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD FROM
THE SW TO THE NE ACROSS THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IT WILL INFLUENCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THEIR TREK NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TN. HRRR IS FORECASTING
SCATTERED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
WAVE OF PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE SOUTH
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM
THIS PAST WEEK`S RAINFALL...WE COULD SEE CREEKS AND STREAMS RISE
PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WATCH FOR MINOR
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE STORMS AROUND...NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE TONIGHT.

BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTH OF OUR AREA. LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY
INHIBIT INSTABILITY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP ENOUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW
70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND MID 70S ELSEWHERE. THIS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY SPC HAS THE MID-STATE IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WHICH STRENGTHEN OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HEAD NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN ON TUESDAY
AND GIVES US A MUCH NEEDED DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ENTERS THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE AREA. COULD SEE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS THAT MOISTURE PUSHES
SOUTH...THEN ANOTHER SURFACE LOW BRINGS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 182333
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
633 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...BNA/CKV/CSV...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT INTO MID TN OVERNIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED TSRA. LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO DEVELOP AROUND
06Z...DROPPING TO IFR AND SOME LIFR WITH POCKETS OF +SHRA BY 11Z.
THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE ARA BY 18Z...WITH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
SUNDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TSRA...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CURRENT REGIONAL
SFC OBS...SATELLITE...AND MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST IN
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...THUS MAINTAINING ISO SHWRS/TSTMS THRU AT
LEAST THE MID EVENING HRS. BULK OF SHWR/TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD FROM
THE SW TO THE NE ACROSS THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IT WILL INFLUENCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THEIR TREK NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TN. HRRR IS FORECASTING
SCATTERED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
WAVE OF PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE SOUTH
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM
THIS PAST WEEK`S RAINFALL...WE COULD SEE CREEKS AND STREAMS RISE
PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WATCH FOR MINOR
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE STORMS AROUND...NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE TONIGHT.

BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTH OF OUR AREA. LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY
INHIBIT INSTABILITY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP ENOUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW
70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND MID 70S ELSEWHERE. THIS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY SPC HAS THE MID-STATE IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WHICH STRENGTHEN OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HEAD NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN ON TUESDAY
AND GIVES US A MUCH NEEDED DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ENTERS THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE AREA. COULD SEE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS THAT MOISTURE PUSHES
SOUTH...THEN ANOTHER SURFACE LOW BRINGS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 182333
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
633 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...BNA/CKV/CSV...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT INTO MID TN OVERNIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED TSRA. LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO DEVELOP AROUND
06Z...DROPPING TO IFR AND SOME LIFR WITH POCKETS OF +SHRA BY 11Z.
THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE ARA BY 18Z...WITH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
SUNDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TSRA...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CURRENT REGIONAL
SFC OBS...SATELLITE...AND MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST IN
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...THUS MAINTAINING ISO SHWRS/TSTMS THRU AT
LEAST THE MID EVENING HRS. BULK OF SHWR/TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD FROM
THE SW TO THE NE ACROSS THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IT WILL INFLUENCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THEIR TREK NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TN. HRRR IS FORECASTING
SCATTERED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
WAVE OF PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE SOUTH
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM
THIS PAST WEEK`S RAINFALL...WE COULD SEE CREEKS AND STREAMS RISE
PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WATCH FOR MINOR
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE STORMS AROUND...NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE TONIGHT.

BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTH OF OUR AREA. LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY
INHIBIT INSTABILITY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP ENOUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW
70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND MID 70S ELSEWHERE. THIS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY SPC HAS THE MID-STATE IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WHICH STRENGTHEN OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HEAD NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN ON TUESDAY
AND GIVES US A MUCH NEEDED DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ENTERS THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE AREA. COULD SEE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS THAT MOISTURE PUSHES
SOUTH...THEN ANOTHER SURFACE LOW BRINGS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 182307 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
707 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED -RA WILL FLIRT WITH THE TERMINALS AT KTRI/KTYS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS/VIS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THIS EVENING...BEFORE CIG/VIS
LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR LEVELS AT EACH SITE LATE TONIGHT FROM SW TO
NE AS A BROAD AREA OF -SHRA MOCE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG/AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT. IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...A WARM/MOIST UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR -TSRA/VCTS SO HAVE
A MENTION OF THIS AT EACH SITE BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 182307 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
707 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED -RA WILL FLIRT WITH THE TERMINALS AT KTRI/KTYS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS/VIS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THIS EVENING...BEFORE CIG/VIS
LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR LEVELS AT EACH SITE LATE TONIGHT FROM SW TO
NE AS A BROAD AREA OF -SHRA MOCE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG/AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT. IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...A WARM/MOIST UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR -TSRA/VCTS SO HAVE
A MENTION OF THIS AT EACH SITE BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP



000
FXUS64 KMRX 182307 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
707 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED -RA WILL FLIRT WITH THE TERMINALS AT KTRI/KTYS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS/VIS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THIS EVENING...BEFORE CIG/VIS
LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR LEVELS AT EACH SITE LATE TONIGHT FROM SW TO
NE AS A BROAD AREA OF -SHRA MOCE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG/AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT. IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...A WARM/MOIST UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR -TSRA/VCTS SO HAVE
A MENTION OF THIS AT EACH SITE BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 182307 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
707 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED -RA WILL FLIRT WITH THE TERMINALS AT KTRI/KTYS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS/VIS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THIS EVENING...BEFORE CIG/VIS
LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR LEVELS AT EACH SITE LATE TONIGHT FROM SW TO
NE AS A BROAD AREA OF -SHRA MOCE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG/AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT. IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...A WARM/MOIST UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR -TSRA/VCTS SO HAVE
A MENTION OF THIS AT EACH SITE BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP



000
FXUS64 KOHX 182230 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CURRENT REGIONAL
SFC OBS...SATELLITE...AND MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST IN
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...THUS MAINTAINING ISO SHWRS/TSTMS THRU AT
LEAST THE MID EVENING HRS. BULK OF SHWR/TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD FROM
THE SW TO THE NE ACROSS THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IT WILL INFLUENCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THEIR TREK NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TN. HRRR IS FORECASTING
SCATTERED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
WAVE OF PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE SOUTH
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM
THIS PAST WEEK`S RAINFALL...WE COULD SEE CREEKS AND STREAMS RISE
PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WATCH FOR MINOR
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE STORMS AROUND...NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE TONIGHT.

BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTH OF OUR AREA. LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY
INHIBIT INSTABILITY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP ENOUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW
70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND MID 70S ELSEWHERE. THIS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY SPC HAS THE MID-STATE IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WHICH STRENGTHEN OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HEAD NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN ON TUESDAY
AND GIVES US A MUCH NEEDED DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ENTERS THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE AREA. COULD SEE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS THAT MOISTURE PUSHES
SOUTH...THEN ANOTHER SURFACE LOW BRINGS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 182230 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CURRENT REGIONAL
SFC OBS...SATELLITE...AND MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST IN
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...THUS MAINTAINING ISO SHWRS/TSTMS THRU AT
LEAST THE MID EVENING HRS. BULK OF SHWR/TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD FROM
THE SW TO THE NE ACROSS THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IT WILL INFLUENCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THEIR TREK NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TN. HRRR IS FORECASTING
SCATTERED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
WAVE OF PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE SOUTH
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM
THIS PAST WEEK`S RAINFALL...WE COULD SEE CREEKS AND STREAMS RISE
PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WATCH FOR MINOR
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE STORMS AROUND...NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE TONIGHT.

BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTH OF OUR AREA. LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY
INHIBIT INSTABILITY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP ENOUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW
70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND MID 70S ELSEWHERE. THIS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY SPC HAS THE MID-STATE IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WHICH STRENGTHEN OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HEAD NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN ON TUESDAY
AND GIVES US A MUCH NEEDED DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ENTERS THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE AREA. COULD SEE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS THAT MOISTURE PUSHES
SOUTH...THEN ANOTHER SURFACE LOW BRINGS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 182230 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CURRENT REGIONAL
SFC OBS...SATELLITE...AND MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST IN
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...THUS MAINTAINING ISO SHWRS/TSTMS THRU AT
LEAST THE MID EVENING HRS. BULK OF SHWR/TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD FROM
THE SW TO THE NE ACROSS THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IT WILL INFLUENCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THEIR TREK NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TN. HRRR IS FORECASTING
SCATTERED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
WAVE OF PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE SOUTH
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM
THIS PAST WEEK`S RAINFALL...WE COULD SEE CREEKS AND STREAMS RISE
PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WATCH FOR MINOR
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE STORMS AROUND...NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE TONIGHT.

BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTH OF OUR AREA. LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY
INHIBIT INSTABILITY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP ENOUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW
70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND MID 70S ELSEWHERE. THIS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY SPC HAS THE MID-STATE IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WHICH STRENGTHEN OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HEAD NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN ON TUESDAY
AND GIVES US A MUCH NEEDED DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ENTERS THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE AREA. COULD SEE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS THAT MOISTURE PUSHES
SOUTH...THEN ANOTHER SURFACE LOW BRINGS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 182051
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
351 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IT WILL INFLUENCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THEIR TREK NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TN. HRRR IS FORECASTING
SCATTERED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
WAVE OF PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE SOUTH
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM
THIS PAST WEEK`S RAINFALL...WE COULD SEE CREEKS AND STREAMS RISE
PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WATCH FOR MINOR
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE STORMS AROUND...NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE TONIGHT.

BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTH OF OUR AREA. LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY
INHIBIT INSTABILITY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP ENOUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW
70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND MID 70S ELSEWHERE. THIS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY SPC HAS THE MID-STATE IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WHICH STRENGTHEN OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HEAD NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN ON TUESDAY
AND GIVES US A MUCH NEEDED DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ENTERS THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE AREA. COULD SEE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS THAT MOISTURE PUSHES
SOUTH...THEN ANOTHER SURFACE LOW BRINGS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      62  76  60  68 / 100  70  60  40
CLARKSVILLE    62  74  58  66 / 100  70  60  40
CROSSVILLE     61  71  59  67 / 100  80  60  60
COLUMBIA       62  75  60  67 / 100  60  60  40
LAWRENCEBURG   63  75  59  68 / 100  50  60  40
WAVERLY        62  75  59  69 / 100  60  60  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11





000
FXUS64 KOHX 182051
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
351 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IT WILL INFLUENCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THEIR TREK NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TN. HRRR IS FORECASTING
SCATTERED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
WAVE OF PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE SOUTH
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM
THIS PAST WEEK`S RAINFALL...WE COULD SEE CREEKS AND STREAMS RISE
PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WATCH FOR MINOR
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE STORMS AROUND...NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE TONIGHT.

BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTH OF OUR AREA. LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY
INHIBIT INSTABILITY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP ENOUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW
70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND MID 70S ELSEWHERE. THIS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY SPC HAS THE MID-STATE IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WHICH STRENGTHEN OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HEAD NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN ON TUESDAY
AND GIVES US A MUCH NEEDED DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ENTERS THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE AREA. COULD SEE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS THAT MOISTURE PUSHES
SOUTH...THEN ANOTHER SURFACE LOW BRINGS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      62  76  60  68 / 100  70  60  40
CLARKSVILLE    62  74  58  66 / 100  70  60  40
CROSSVILLE     61  71  59  67 / 100  80  60  60
COLUMBIA       62  75  60  67 / 100  60  60  40
LAWRENCEBURG   63  75  59  68 / 100  50  60  40
WAVERLY        62  75  59  69 / 100  60  60  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11






000
FXUS64 KMEG 181946
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
246 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT SO FAR MOST AREA HAVE REMAINED DRY.

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH SOUTH
ALABAMA AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT RAPIDLY NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS IT DOES
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG
AND AHEAD OF IT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

ON SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE SOME WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL ENTER WESTERN ARKANSAS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING
THE MAIN THREATS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY WITH RAIN ENDING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. BY MONDAY NIGHT
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI ON THURSDAY
SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

THE FRONT WILL START TO SLOWLY MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
FRIDAY AND REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA NEXT SATURDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE
TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (18/18Z-19/18Z)

MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR AT KTUP THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KJBR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
VFR AT THESE SITES THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 21Z. EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
5-9 KTS.

A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING NUMEROUS ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR AREAWIDE THEN IFR. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SW WITH
PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAIN ENDING BY AROUND 19/12Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR THEN
BECOMING VFR AROUND MID-MORNING SUNDAY. SW-W WINDS INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 12 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 181946
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
246 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT SO FAR MOST AREA HAVE REMAINED DRY.

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH SOUTH
ALABAMA AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT RAPIDLY NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS IT DOES
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG
AND AHEAD OF IT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

ON SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE SOME WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL ENTER WESTERN ARKANSAS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING
THE MAIN THREATS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY WITH RAIN ENDING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. BY MONDAY NIGHT
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI ON THURSDAY
SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

THE FRONT WILL START TO SLOWLY MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
FRIDAY AND REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA NEXT SATURDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE
TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (18/18Z-19/18Z)

MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR AT KTUP THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KJBR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
VFR AT THESE SITES THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 21Z. EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
5-9 KTS.

A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING NUMEROUS ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR AREAWIDE THEN IFR. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SW WITH
PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAIN ENDING BY AROUND 19/12Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR THEN
BECOMING VFR AROUND MID-MORNING SUNDAY. SW-W WINDS INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 12 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 181946
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
246 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT SO FAR MOST AREA HAVE REMAINED DRY.

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH SOUTH
ALABAMA AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT RAPIDLY NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS IT DOES
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG
AND AHEAD OF IT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

ON SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE SOME WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL ENTER WESTERN ARKANSAS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING
THE MAIN THREATS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY WITH RAIN ENDING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. BY MONDAY NIGHT
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI ON THURSDAY
SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

THE FRONT WILL START TO SLOWLY MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
FRIDAY AND REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA NEXT SATURDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE
TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (18/18Z-19/18Z)

MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR AT KTUP THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KJBR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
VFR AT THESE SITES THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 21Z. EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
5-9 KTS.

A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING NUMEROUS ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR AREAWIDE THEN IFR. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SW WITH
PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAIN ENDING BY AROUND 19/12Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR THEN
BECOMING VFR AROUND MID-MORNING SUNDAY. SW-W WINDS INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 12 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 181946
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
246 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT SO FAR MOST AREA HAVE REMAINED DRY.

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH SOUTH
ALABAMA AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT RAPIDLY NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS IT DOES
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG
AND AHEAD OF IT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

ON SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE SOME WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL ENTER WESTERN ARKANSAS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING
THE MAIN THREATS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY WITH RAIN ENDING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. BY MONDAY NIGHT
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI ON THURSDAY
SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

THE FRONT WILL START TO SLOWLY MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
FRIDAY AND REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA NEXT SATURDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE
TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (18/18Z-19/18Z)

MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR AT KTUP THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KJBR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
VFR AT THESE SITES THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 21Z. EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
5-9 KTS.

A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING NUMEROUS ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR AREAWIDE THEN IFR. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SW WITH
PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAIN ENDING BY AROUND 19/12Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR THEN
BECOMING VFR AROUND MID-MORNING SUNDAY. SW-W WINDS INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 12 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 181946
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
246 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT SO FAR MOST AREA HAVE REMAINED DRY.

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH SOUTH
ALABAMA AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT RAPIDLY NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS IT DOES
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG
AND AHEAD OF IT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

ON SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE SOME WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL ENTER WESTERN ARKANSAS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING
THE MAIN THREATS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY WITH RAIN ENDING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. BY MONDAY NIGHT
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI ON THURSDAY
SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

THE FRONT WILL START TO SLOWLY MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
FRIDAY AND REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA NEXT SATURDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE
TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (18/18Z-19/18Z)

MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR AT KTUP THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KJBR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
VFR AT THESE SITES THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 21Z. EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
5-9 KTS.

A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING NUMEROUS ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR AREAWIDE THEN IFR. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SW WITH
PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAIN ENDING BY AROUND 19/12Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR THEN
BECOMING VFR AROUND MID-MORNING SUNDAY. SW-W WINDS INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 12 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 181946
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
246 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT SO FAR MOST AREA HAVE REMAINED DRY.

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH SOUTH
ALABAMA AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT RAPIDLY NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS IT DOES
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG
AND AHEAD OF IT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

ON SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE SOME WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL ENTER WESTERN ARKANSAS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING
THE MAIN THREATS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY WITH RAIN ENDING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. BY MONDAY NIGHT
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI ON THURSDAY
SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

THE FRONT WILL START TO SLOWLY MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
FRIDAY AND REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA NEXT SATURDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE
TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (18/18Z-19/18Z)

MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR AT KTUP THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KJBR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
VFR AT THESE SITES THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 21Z. EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
5-9 KTS.

A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING NUMEROUS ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR AREAWIDE THEN IFR. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SW WITH
PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAIN ENDING BY AROUND 19/12Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR THEN
BECOMING VFR AROUND MID-MORNING SUNDAY. SW-W WINDS INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 12 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 181910
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS (ALONG THE TN/NC STATE-LINE) WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.
THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE VALLEY THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE SMOKYS
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

FOR TONIGHT...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE
GULF COAST STATES TOWARD EAST TENNESSEE. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS GOOD
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS WELL THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL BE UNDER DIVERGENCE ALOFT/DIRECT CIRCULATION.
THIS WILL INDUCE A WAVE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL.

A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS IS EXPECTED AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH WITH LOCALIZED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE...BUT NO
WARRANTING A FLOOD WATCH. MODEL SHOWS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR
TRI BETWEEN 18-21Z WITH DECENT SHEAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR ANY STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE WARM FRONT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND CAPES FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. ALSO...LOW WBZ AND LARGE ENOUGH HAIL CAPES TO
PRODUCE THE THREAT OF HAIL.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...BULK OF THE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP SHOULD BE NORTH OF OUR AREA AS WE BEGIN THE LONGTERM FORECAST
ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS STILL BACK TO
OUR WEST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT.
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AFTER THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP MOVES
NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAT WE WILL HAVE A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE
ACTION TO START SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BREAK DOESN`T LAST LONG THOUGH AS
CONVECTION LOOKS TO FIRE WITH APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND
MOVE INTO OUR AREA BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT. WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO PROMOTE THE OCCASIONAL
STRONGER/LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFT. AS THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS
MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IN WEST TN IS
BECOMING LINEARLY ORGANIZED BY 06Z MONDAY ACCORDING TO THE 12Z NAM.
THE NAM SHOWS THIS LINE OF STORMS LOSING STEAM AS IT ROLLS INTO OUR
AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW ORGANIZED THE LINE IS
AND COLD POOL ESTABLISHMENT...WILL DETERMINE HOW STRONG THE STORMS
ARE WHEN THEY ENTER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. IF THE STORMS REMAIN
STRONGER THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

MONDAY IS AN INTERESTING DAY BUT HOW IT PLAYS OUT DEPENDS ON WHAT
HAPPENS WITH THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING CONVECTIVE LINE. IF THE
12Z NAM SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT...CAPES JUMP UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND 1000-1500 ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY
AND NETN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL WELL BACK TO
OUR WEST...NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS POSSIBLE ALONG AND OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING
WINDS AND POTENTIALLY LARGE HAIL. SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING QUITE A BIT
OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WITH THE CLASSIC INVERTED V LOOK AT THE
SURFACE. THIS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT COULD LEAD TO DAMAGING WINDS AT
THE SURFACE. LOW WETBULB FRZ HEIGHTS WITH AMPLE CAPE IN THE HAIL
GROWTH REGION MAY RESULT IN SOME LARGE HAIL. AGAIN...A LOT OF THIS
DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY MONDAY MORNINGS ACTIVITY EXITS AND FRONTAL
TIMING LATER IN THE DAY. STAY TUNED...

DRY AIR AND COOLER TEMPS MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAKING
TUESDAY LOOK LIKE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED. ZONAL FLOW ESTABLISHES ITS
SELF TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ZIPPING THROUGH
THE FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND BUT
MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY. ANOTHER WAVE MOVES IN WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY THAT WILL INCREASE POPS ONCE AGAIN AREA-WIDE. COLD
FRONT SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. FRONT MAY STALL OUT
SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR AREA INTO FRIDAY WHICH WOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN ON SATURDAY
AND INCREASES POPS ONCE AGAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN JUST
BEYOND THE END OF THIS EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             64  77  61  72 / 100  80  40  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  62  74  60  71 / 100  90  40  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       62  74  60  70 / 100  90  40  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              59  68  56  69 /  70 100  60  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 181910
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS (ALONG THE TN/NC STATE-LINE) WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.
THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE VALLEY THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE SMOKYS
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

FOR TONIGHT...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE
GULF COAST STATES TOWARD EAST TENNESSEE. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS GOOD
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS WELL THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL BE UNDER DIVERGENCE ALOFT/DIRECT CIRCULATION.
THIS WILL INDUCE A WAVE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL.

A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS IS EXPECTED AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH WITH LOCALIZED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE...BUT NO
WARRANTING A FLOOD WATCH. MODEL SHOWS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR
TRI BETWEEN 18-21Z WITH DECENT SHEAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR ANY STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE WARM FRONT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND CAPES FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. ALSO...LOW WBZ AND LARGE ENOUGH HAIL CAPES TO
PRODUCE THE THREAT OF HAIL.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...BULK OF THE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP SHOULD BE NORTH OF OUR AREA AS WE BEGIN THE LONGTERM FORECAST
ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS STILL BACK TO
OUR WEST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT.
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AFTER THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP MOVES
NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAT WE WILL HAVE A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE
ACTION TO START SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BREAK DOESN`T LAST LONG THOUGH AS
CONVECTION LOOKS TO FIRE WITH APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND
MOVE INTO OUR AREA BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT. WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO PROMOTE THE OCCASIONAL
STRONGER/LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFT. AS THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS
MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IN WEST TN IS
BECOMING LINEARLY ORGANIZED BY 06Z MONDAY ACCORDING TO THE 12Z NAM.
THE NAM SHOWS THIS LINE OF STORMS LOSING STEAM AS IT ROLLS INTO OUR
AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW ORGANIZED THE LINE IS
AND COLD POOL ESTABLISHMENT...WILL DETERMINE HOW STRONG THE STORMS
ARE WHEN THEY ENTER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. IF THE STORMS REMAIN
STRONGER THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

MONDAY IS AN INTERESTING DAY BUT HOW IT PLAYS OUT DEPENDS ON WHAT
HAPPENS WITH THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING CONVECTIVE LINE. IF THE
12Z NAM SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT...CAPES JUMP UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND 1000-1500 ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY
AND NETN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL WELL BACK TO
OUR WEST...NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS POSSIBLE ALONG AND OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING
WINDS AND POTENTIALLY LARGE HAIL. SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING QUITE A BIT
OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WITH THE CLASSIC INVERTED V LOOK AT THE
SURFACE. THIS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT COULD LEAD TO DAMAGING WINDS AT
THE SURFACE. LOW WETBULB FRZ HEIGHTS WITH AMPLE CAPE IN THE HAIL
GROWTH REGION MAY RESULT IN SOME LARGE HAIL. AGAIN...A LOT OF THIS
DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY MONDAY MORNINGS ACTIVITY EXITS AND FRONTAL
TIMING LATER IN THE DAY. STAY TUNED...

DRY AIR AND COOLER TEMPS MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAKING
TUESDAY LOOK LIKE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED. ZONAL FLOW ESTABLISHES ITS
SELF TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ZIPPING THROUGH
THE FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND BUT
MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY. ANOTHER WAVE MOVES IN WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY THAT WILL INCREASE POPS ONCE AGAIN AREA-WIDE. COLD
FRONT SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. FRONT MAY STALL OUT
SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR AREA INTO FRIDAY WHICH WOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN ON SATURDAY
AND INCREASES POPS ONCE AGAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN JUST
BEYOND THE END OF THIS EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             64  77  61  72 / 100  80  40  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  62  74  60  71 / 100  90  40  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       62  74  60  70 / 100  90  40  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              59  68  56  69 /  70 100  60  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 181732
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
132 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS (ALONG THE TN/NC STATE-LINE) WILL DEVELOP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. THESE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
WEST TOWARD THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH CHA AND TYS HAVING
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION. BESIDES THE SHOWERS...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE
GULF COAST STATES TOWARD EAST TENNESSEE. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL DETEORIATE...INITIALLY AT CHA...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST.

LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING WITH NEAR LLWS
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 181732
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
132 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS (ALONG THE TN/NC STATE-LINE) WILL DEVELOP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. THESE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
WEST TOWARD THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH CHA AND TYS HAVING
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION. BESIDES THE SHOWERS...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE
GULF COAST STATES TOWARD EAST TENNESSEE. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL DETEORIATE...INITIALLY AT CHA...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST.

LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING WITH NEAR LLWS
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 181732
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
132 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS (ALONG THE TN/NC STATE-LINE) WILL DEVELOP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. THESE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
WEST TOWARD THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH CHA AND TYS HAVING
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION. BESIDES THE SHOWERS...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE
GULF COAST STATES TOWARD EAST TENNESSEE. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL DETEORIATE...INITIALLY AT CHA...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST.

LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING WITH NEAR LLWS
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMEG 181717 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1217 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 1011 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S. THERE IS NO RAIN IN THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EVENTUALLY MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE
FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING WITH NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST. A LEAD SHORTWAVE NOW EJECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH
TODAY. THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. THIS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
TO WHICH LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
ALSO WITH RESPECT TO OVERALL AMOUNTS. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...PLAN
TO DEFER ANY DECISION REGARDING A FLOOD WATCH TO THE DAY SHIFT.

THERE SHOULD BE A TEMPORARY END TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING LEAD SHORTWAVE LATE TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS TO OVERSPREAD THE MID SOUTH
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY A 50+KT MID LEVEL JET EJECTING ACROSS THE OZARKS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL HELP TO STEEPEN MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. DESTABILIZATION WILL
ALSO BE AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WHICH SHOULD DRIVE SBCAPE VALUES TO IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD ERODE ANY RESIDUAL EARLY DAY CAPPING AND ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. INITIAL
STORM MODE MAY BE A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND SHORT BOWING
SEGMENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE BY
SUNDAY EVENING AS MID LEVEL FORCING STRENGTHENS. WEAKER LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND QUICK TRANSITION TO MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
THE TORNADO THREAT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD
REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5 C/KM...THERE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT HAIL REPORTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE
MORE ROBUST NAM SOUNDINGS PROVE TRUE. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT BEFORE EXITING EAST BY EARLY MORNING
MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOW HUMIDITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S.

WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (18/18Z-19/18Z)

MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR AT KTUP THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KJBR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
VFR AT THESE SITES THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 21Z. EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
5-9 KTS.

A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING NUMEROUS ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR AREAWIDE THEN IFR. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SW WITH
PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAIN ENDING BY AROUND 19/12Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR THEN
BECOMING VFR AROUND MID-MORNING SUNDAY. SW-W WINDS INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 12 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 181717 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1217 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 1011 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S. THERE IS NO RAIN IN THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EVENTUALLY MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE
FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING WITH NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST. A LEAD SHORTWAVE NOW EJECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH
TODAY. THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. THIS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
TO WHICH LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
ALSO WITH RESPECT TO OVERALL AMOUNTS. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...PLAN
TO DEFER ANY DECISION REGARDING A FLOOD WATCH TO THE DAY SHIFT.

THERE SHOULD BE A TEMPORARY END TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING LEAD SHORTWAVE LATE TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS TO OVERSPREAD THE MID SOUTH
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY A 50+KT MID LEVEL JET EJECTING ACROSS THE OZARKS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL HELP TO STEEPEN MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. DESTABILIZATION WILL
ALSO BE AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WHICH SHOULD DRIVE SBCAPE VALUES TO IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD ERODE ANY RESIDUAL EARLY DAY CAPPING AND ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. INITIAL
STORM MODE MAY BE A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND SHORT BOWING
SEGMENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE BY
SUNDAY EVENING AS MID LEVEL FORCING STRENGTHENS. WEAKER LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND QUICK TRANSITION TO MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
THE TORNADO THREAT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD
REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5 C/KM...THERE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT HAIL REPORTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE
MORE ROBUST NAM SOUNDINGS PROVE TRUE. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT BEFORE EXITING EAST BY EARLY MORNING
MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOW HUMIDITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S.

WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (18/18Z-19/18Z)

MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR AT KTUP THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KJBR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
VFR AT THESE SITES THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 21Z. EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
5-9 KTS.

A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING NUMEROUS ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR AREAWIDE THEN IFR. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SW WITH
PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAIN ENDING BY AROUND 19/12Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR THEN
BECOMING VFR AROUND MID-MORNING SUNDAY. SW-W WINDS INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 12 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 181717 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1217 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 1011 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S. THERE IS NO RAIN IN THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EVENTUALLY MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE
FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING WITH NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST. A LEAD SHORTWAVE NOW EJECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH
TODAY. THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. THIS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
TO WHICH LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
ALSO WITH RESPECT TO OVERALL AMOUNTS. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...PLAN
TO DEFER ANY DECISION REGARDING A FLOOD WATCH TO THE DAY SHIFT.

THERE SHOULD BE A TEMPORARY END TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING LEAD SHORTWAVE LATE TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS TO OVERSPREAD THE MID SOUTH
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY A 50+KT MID LEVEL JET EJECTING ACROSS THE OZARKS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL HELP TO STEEPEN MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. DESTABILIZATION WILL
ALSO BE AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WHICH SHOULD DRIVE SBCAPE VALUES TO IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD ERODE ANY RESIDUAL EARLY DAY CAPPING AND ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. INITIAL
STORM MODE MAY BE A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND SHORT BOWING
SEGMENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE BY
SUNDAY EVENING AS MID LEVEL FORCING STRENGTHENS. WEAKER LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND QUICK TRANSITION TO MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
THE TORNADO THREAT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD
REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5 C/KM...THERE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT HAIL REPORTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE
MORE ROBUST NAM SOUNDINGS PROVE TRUE. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT BEFORE EXITING EAST BY EARLY MORNING
MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOW HUMIDITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S.

WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (18/18Z-19/18Z)

MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR AT KTUP THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KJBR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
VFR AT THESE SITES THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 21Z. EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
5-9 KTS.

A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING NUMEROUS ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR AREAWIDE THEN IFR. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SW WITH
PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAIN ENDING BY AROUND 19/12Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR THEN
BECOMING VFR AROUND MID-MORNING SUNDAY. SW-W WINDS INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 12 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 181717 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1217 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 1011 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S. THERE IS NO RAIN IN THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EVENTUALLY MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE
FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING WITH NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST. A LEAD SHORTWAVE NOW EJECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH
TODAY. THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. THIS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
TO WHICH LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
ALSO WITH RESPECT TO OVERALL AMOUNTS. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...PLAN
TO DEFER ANY DECISION REGARDING A FLOOD WATCH TO THE DAY SHIFT.

THERE SHOULD BE A TEMPORARY END TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING LEAD SHORTWAVE LATE TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS TO OVERSPREAD THE MID SOUTH
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY A 50+KT MID LEVEL JET EJECTING ACROSS THE OZARKS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL HELP TO STEEPEN MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. DESTABILIZATION WILL
ALSO BE AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WHICH SHOULD DRIVE SBCAPE VALUES TO IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD ERODE ANY RESIDUAL EARLY DAY CAPPING AND ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. INITIAL
STORM MODE MAY BE A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND SHORT BOWING
SEGMENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE BY
SUNDAY EVENING AS MID LEVEL FORCING STRENGTHENS. WEAKER LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND QUICK TRANSITION TO MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
THE TORNADO THREAT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD
REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5 C/KM...THERE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT HAIL REPORTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE
MORE ROBUST NAM SOUNDINGS PROVE TRUE. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT BEFORE EXITING EAST BY EARLY MORNING
MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOW HUMIDITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S.

WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (18/18Z-19/18Z)

MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR AT KTUP THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KJBR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
VFR AT THESE SITES THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 21Z. EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
5-9 KTS.

A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING NUMEROUS ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR AREAWIDE THEN IFR. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SW WITH
PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAIN ENDING BY AROUND 19/12Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR THEN
BECOMING VFR AROUND MID-MORNING SUNDAY. SW-W WINDS INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 12 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 181705
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1205 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE PREVALENT
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. LOOK FOR
WARM FRONTAL MOISTURE TO BEGIN ADVECTING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AFTER 00Z, WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING,
AND THEN BECOMING HEAVIER WITH WORSENING CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AND
LASTING INTO TOMORROW. WE MAY SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE
MORNING, BUT BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL COME AFTER
18Z WHEN WE HAVE THE MOST INSTABILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

PATCHY FOG WILL BRING MVFR/IFR VIS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH 19/03Z WHEN
-SHRA ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT. SOME
FOG HAS DEVELOPED THANKS TO PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES AND LINGERING
SURFACE MOISTURE FROM ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK. WINDS
ARE ALSO CALM...WHICH IS ADDING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA ARE SHOWING AS LOW AS
QUARTER MILE UP TO AROUND 5 MILES FOR SITES REPORTING FOG. THE FOG
POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING OR SO AS TEMPERATURES
WARM UP A BIT.

THE TROUGH MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL START TO IMPACT THE
REGION WITH PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS ARE PLACING A BIT
OF QPF ON THE PLATEAU EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT CONTINUED WITH
THE TREND AND KEPT POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED POPS A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODELS ALSO ARE BRINGING PRECIP IN A BIT EARLIER.
MAIN BANDS OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN TOTALS AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OR MORE
IN PLACES.

A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP MOVES IN SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
LOW TRAVELS NORTHWARD AND THE MID STATE IS UNDER THE CLEAR SLOT
IN THE WARM SECTOR. SEVERE PARAMETERS HAVENT CHANGED MUCH SINCE
YESTERDAYS FORECAST...WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND
0-6KM SHEAR IN THE 35-45 KNOT RANGE. SPC OUTLOOK STILL HAS THE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SOME ISOLATED CELLS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN
THE WARM SECTOR...HOWEVER THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A MORE
LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE THE MAIN IMPACT WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CELLS
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE.

DRIER WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE SOME SUBTLE DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW AND A COLD FRONT
FROM A GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW MOVE IN. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL
DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER BY NEXT SATURDAY BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A GOOD
AMOUNT OF QPF OVER THE REGION. RAN WITH HIGHER POPS AT THE END OF
THE EXTENDED TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

99






000
FXUS64 KOHX 181705
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1205 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE PREVALENT
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. LOOK FOR
WARM FRONTAL MOISTURE TO BEGIN ADVECTING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AFTER 00Z, WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING,
AND THEN BECOMING HEAVIER WITH WORSENING CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AND
LASTING INTO TOMORROW. WE MAY SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE
MORNING, BUT BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL COME AFTER
18Z WHEN WE HAVE THE MOST INSTABILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

PATCHY FOG WILL BRING MVFR/IFR VIS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH 19/03Z WHEN
-SHRA ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT. SOME
FOG HAS DEVELOPED THANKS TO PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES AND LINGERING
SURFACE MOISTURE FROM ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK. WINDS
ARE ALSO CALM...WHICH IS ADDING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA ARE SHOWING AS LOW AS
QUARTER MILE UP TO AROUND 5 MILES FOR SITES REPORTING FOG. THE FOG
POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING OR SO AS TEMPERATURES
WARM UP A BIT.

THE TROUGH MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL START TO IMPACT THE
REGION WITH PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS ARE PLACING A BIT
OF QPF ON THE PLATEAU EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT CONTINUED WITH
THE TREND AND KEPT POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED POPS A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODELS ALSO ARE BRINGING PRECIP IN A BIT EARLIER.
MAIN BANDS OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN TOTALS AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OR MORE
IN PLACES.

A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP MOVES IN SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
LOW TRAVELS NORTHWARD AND THE MID STATE IS UNDER THE CLEAR SLOT
IN THE WARM SECTOR. SEVERE PARAMETERS HAVENT CHANGED MUCH SINCE
YESTERDAYS FORECAST...WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND
0-6KM SHEAR IN THE 35-45 KNOT RANGE. SPC OUTLOOK STILL HAS THE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SOME ISOLATED CELLS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN
THE WARM SECTOR...HOWEVER THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A MORE
LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE THE MAIN IMPACT WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CELLS
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE.

DRIER WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE SOME SUBTLE DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW AND A COLD FRONT
FROM A GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW MOVE IN. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL
DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER BY NEXT SATURDAY BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A GOOD
AMOUNT OF QPF OVER THE REGION. RAN WITH HIGHER POPS AT THE END OF
THE EXTENDED TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

99





000
FXUS64 KMEG 181511
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1011 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015


.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S. THERE IS NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST
AREA AT THIS TIME WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EVENTUALLY MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE
FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING WITH NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST. A LEAD SHORTWAVE NOW EJECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH
TODAY. THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. THIS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
TO WHICH LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
ALSO WITH RESPECT TO OVERALL AMOUNTS. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...PLAN
TO DEFER ANY DECISION REGARDING A FLOOD WATCH TO THE DAY SHIFT.

THERE SHOULD BE A TEMPORARY END TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING LEAD SHORTWAVE LATE TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS TO OVERSPREAD THE MID SOUTH
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY A 50+KT MID LEVEL JET EJECTING ACROSS THE OZARKS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL HELP TO STEEPEN MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. DESTABILIZATION WILL
ALSO BE AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WHICH SHOULD DRIVE SBCAPE VALUES TO IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD ERODE ANY RESIDUAL EARLY DAY CAPPING AND ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. INITIAL
STORM MODE MAY BE A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND SHORT BOWING
SEGMENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE BY
SUNDAY EVENING AS MID LEVEL FORCING STRENGTHENS. WEAKER LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND QUICK TRANSITION TO MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
THE TORNADO THREAT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD
REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5 C/KM...THERE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT HAIL REPORTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE
MORE ROBUST NAM SOUNDINGS PROVE TRUE. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT BEFORE EXITING EAST BY EARLY MORNING
MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOW HUMIDITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S.

WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING PRODUCING MVFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS BY TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PRODUCING SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS.

04

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 181511
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1011 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015


.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S. THERE IS NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST
AREA AT THIS TIME WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EVENTUALLY MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE
FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING WITH NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST. A LEAD SHORTWAVE NOW EJECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH
TODAY. THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. THIS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
TO WHICH LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
ALSO WITH RESPECT TO OVERALL AMOUNTS. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...PLAN
TO DEFER ANY DECISION REGARDING A FLOOD WATCH TO THE DAY SHIFT.

THERE SHOULD BE A TEMPORARY END TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING LEAD SHORTWAVE LATE TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS TO OVERSPREAD THE MID SOUTH
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY A 50+KT MID LEVEL JET EJECTING ACROSS THE OZARKS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL HELP TO STEEPEN MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. DESTABILIZATION WILL
ALSO BE AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WHICH SHOULD DRIVE SBCAPE VALUES TO IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD ERODE ANY RESIDUAL EARLY DAY CAPPING AND ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. INITIAL
STORM MODE MAY BE A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND SHORT BOWING
SEGMENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE BY
SUNDAY EVENING AS MID LEVEL FORCING STRENGTHENS. WEAKER LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND QUICK TRANSITION TO MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
THE TORNADO THREAT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD
REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5 C/KM...THERE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT HAIL REPORTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE
MORE ROBUST NAM SOUNDINGS PROVE TRUE. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT BEFORE EXITING EAST BY EARLY MORNING
MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOW HUMIDITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S.

WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING PRODUCING MVFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS BY TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PRODUCING SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS.

04

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 181354 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
954 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM ET.
SATELLITE AND AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOW DENSE FOG IS SLOWLY ERODING...
BUT PATCHY DENSE FOG REMAINS. WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
THROUGH LATE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             76  62  76  61 /  40 100  90  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  61  76  61 /  40 100  90  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       77  62  75  60 /  30 100  90  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              80  58  75  56 /  30  70  90  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-
     CLAY.

TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 181354 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
954 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM ET.
SATELLITE AND AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOW DENSE FOG IS SLOWLY ERODING...
BUT PATCHY DENSE FOG REMAINS. WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
THROUGH LATE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             76  62  76  61 /  40 100  90  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  61  76  61 /  40 100  90  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       77  62  75  60 /  30 100  90  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              80  58  75  56 /  30  70  90  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-
     CLAY.

TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 181354 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
954 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM ET.
SATELLITE AND AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOW DENSE FOG IS SLOWLY ERODING...
BUT PATCHY DENSE FOG REMAINS. WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
THROUGH LATE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             76  62  76  61 /  40 100  90  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  61  76  61 /  40 100  90  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       77  62  75  60 /  30 100  90  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              80  58  75  56 /  30  70  90  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-
     CLAY.

TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 181354 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
954 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM ET.
SATELLITE AND AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOW DENSE FOG IS SLOWLY ERODING...
BUT PATCHY DENSE FOG REMAINS. WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
THROUGH LATE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             76  62  76  61 /  40 100  90  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  61  76  61 /  40 100  90  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       77  62  75  60 /  30 100  90  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              80  58  75  56 /  30  70  90  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-
     CLAY.

TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 181255 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
855 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...DENSE FOG IS SLOWING LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER...WILL EXTEND ADVISORY UNTIL 14Z (10 AM ET).
MODELS...INCLUDING LATEST HRRR MODEL...SHOWS UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
SPINE OF SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL INSTABILITY
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...THEN SPREADING INTO THE VALLEY. BEST COVERAGE...DUE TO
BETTER INSTABILITY...WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. HAVE INCREASE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION AREA-WIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             76  62  76  61 /  40 100  90  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  61  76  61 /  40 100  90  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       77  62  75  60 /  30 100  90  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              80  58  75  56 /  30  70  90  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-
     CLAY.

TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 181255 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
855 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...DENSE FOG IS SLOWING LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER...WILL EXTEND ADVISORY UNTIL 14Z (10 AM ET).
MODELS...INCLUDING LATEST HRRR MODEL...SHOWS UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
SPINE OF SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL INSTABILITY
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...THEN SPREADING INTO THE VALLEY. BEST COVERAGE...DUE TO
BETTER INSTABILITY...WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. HAVE INCREASE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION AREA-WIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             76  62  76  61 /  40 100  90  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  61  76  61 /  40 100  90  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       77  62  75  60 /  30 100  90  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              80  58  75  56 /  30  70  90  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-
     CLAY.

TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 181255 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
855 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...DENSE FOG IS SLOWING LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER...WILL EXTEND ADVISORY UNTIL 14Z (10 AM ET).
MODELS...INCLUDING LATEST HRRR MODEL...SHOWS UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
SPINE OF SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL INSTABILITY
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...THEN SPREADING INTO THE VALLEY. BEST COVERAGE...DUE TO
BETTER INSTABILITY...WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. HAVE INCREASE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION AREA-WIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             76  62  76  61 /  40 100  90  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  61  76  61 /  40 100  90  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       77  62  75  60 /  30 100  90  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              80  58  75  56 /  30  70  90  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-
     CLAY.

TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 181255 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
855 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...DENSE FOG IS SLOWING LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER...WILL EXTEND ADVISORY UNTIL 14Z (10 AM ET).
MODELS...INCLUDING LATEST HRRR MODEL...SHOWS UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
SPINE OF SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL INSTABILITY
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...THEN SPREADING INTO THE VALLEY. BEST COVERAGE...DUE TO
BETTER INSTABILITY...WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. HAVE INCREASE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION AREA-WIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             76  62  76  61 /  40 100  90  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  61  76  61 /  40 100  90  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       77  62  75  60 /  30 100  90  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              80  58  75  56 /  30  70  90  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-
     CLAY.

TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOHX 181228
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
728 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

PATCHY FOG WILL BRING MVFR/IFR VIS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH 19/03Z WHEN
-SHRA ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT. SOME
FOG HAS DEVELOPED THANKS TO PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES AND LINGERING
SURFACE MOISTURE FROM ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK. WINDS
ARE ALSO CALM...WHICH IS ADDING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA ARE SHOWING AS LOW AS
QUARTER MILE UP TO AROUND 5 MILES FOR SITES REPORTING FOG. THE FOG
POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING OR SO AS TEMPERATURES
WARM UP A BIT.

THE TROUGH MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL START TO IMPACT THE
REGION WITH PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS ARE PLACING A BIT
OF QPF ON THE PLATEAU EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT CONTINUED WITH
THE TREND AND KEPT POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED POPS A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODELS ALSO ARE BRINGING PRECIP IN A BIT EARLIER.
MAIN BANDS OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN TOTALS AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OR MORE
IN PLACES.

A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP MOVES IN SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
LOW TRAVELS NORTHWARD AND THE MID STATE IS UNDER THE CLEAR SLOT
IN THE WARM SECTOR. SEVERE PARAMETERS HAVENT CHANGED MUCH SINCE
YESTERDAYS FORECAST...WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND
0-6KM SHEAR IN THE 35-45 KNOT RANGE. SPC OUTLOOK STILL HAS THE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SOME ISOLATED CELLS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN
THE WARM SECTOR...HOWEVER THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A MORE
LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE THE MAIN IMPACT WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CELLS
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE.

DRIER WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE SOME SUBTLE DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW AND A COLD FRONT
FROM A GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW MOVE IN. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL
DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER BY NEXT SATURDAY BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A GOOD
AMOUNT OF QPF OVER THE REGION. RAN WITH HIGHER POPS AT THE END OF
THE EXTENDED TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KOHX 181228
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
728 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

PATCHY FOG WILL BRING MVFR/IFR VIS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH 19/03Z WHEN
-SHRA ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT. SOME
FOG HAS DEVELOPED THANKS TO PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES AND LINGERING
SURFACE MOISTURE FROM ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK. WINDS
ARE ALSO CALM...WHICH IS ADDING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA ARE SHOWING AS LOW AS
QUARTER MILE UP TO AROUND 5 MILES FOR SITES REPORTING FOG. THE FOG
POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING OR SO AS TEMPERATURES
WARM UP A BIT.

THE TROUGH MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL START TO IMPACT THE
REGION WITH PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS ARE PLACING A BIT
OF QPF ON THE PLATEAU EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT CONTINUED WITH
THE TREND AND KEPT POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED POPS A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODELS ALSO ARE BRINGING PRECIP IN A BIT EARLIER.
MAIN BANDS OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN TOTALS AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OR MORE
IN PLACES.

A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP MOVES IN SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
LOW TRAVELS NORTHWARD AND THE MID STATE IS UNDER THE CLEAR SLOT
IN THE WARM SECTOR. SEVERE PARAMETERS HAVENT CHANGED MUCH SINCE
YESTERDAYS FORECAST...WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND
0-6KM SHEAR IN THE 35-45 KNOT RANGE. SPC OUTLOOK STILL HAS THE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SOME ISOLATED CELLS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN
THE WARM SECTOR...HOWEVER THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A MORE
LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE THE MAIN IMPACT WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CELLS
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE.

DRIER WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE SOME SUBTLE DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW AND A COLD FRONT
FROM A GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW MOVE IN. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL
DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER BY NEXT SATURDAY BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A GOOD
AMOUNT OF QPF OVER THE REGION. RAN WITH HIGHER POPS AT THE END OF
THE EXTENDED TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55





000
FXUS64 KMEG 181128
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
628 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST. A LEAD SHORTWAVE NOW EJECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH
TODAY. THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. THIS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
TO WHICH LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
ALSO WITH RESPECT TO OVERALL AMOUNTS. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...PLAN
TO DEFER ANY DECISION REGARDING A FLOOD WATCH TO THE DAY SHIFT.

THERE SHOULD BE A TEMPORARY END TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING LEAD SHORTWAVE LATE TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS TO OVERSPREAD THE MID SOUTH
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY A 50+KT MID LEVEL JET EJECTING ACROSS THE OZARKS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL HELP TO STEEPEN MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. DESTABILIZATION WILL
ALSO BE AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WHICH SHOULD DRIVE SBCAPE VALUES TO IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD ERODE ANY RESIDUAL EARLY DAY CAPPING AND ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. INITIAL
STORM MODE MAY BE A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND SHORT BOWING
SEGMENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE BY
SUNDAY EVENING AS MID LEVEL FORCING STRENGTHENS. WEAKER LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND QUICK TRANSITION TO MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
THE TORNADO THREAT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD
REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5 C/KM...THERE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT HAIL REPORTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE
MORE ROBUST NAM SOUNDINGS PROVE TRUE. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT BEFORE EXITING EAST BY EARLY MORNING
MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOW HUMIDITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S.

WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING PRODUCING MVFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS BY TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PRODUCING SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS.

04
&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 181128
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
628 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST. A LEAD SHORTWAVE NOW EJECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH
TODAY. THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. THIS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
TO WHICH LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
ALSO WITH RESPECT TO OVERALL AMOUNTS. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...PLAN
TO DEFER ANY DECISION REGARDING A FLOOD WATCH TO THE DAY SHIFT.

THERE SHOULD BE A TEMPORARY END TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING LEAD SHORTWAVE LATE TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS TO OVERSPREAD THE MID SOUTH
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY A 50+KT MID LEVEL JET EJECTING ACROSS THE OZARKS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL HELP TO STEEPEN MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. DESTABILIZATION WILL
ALSO BE AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WHICH SHOULD DRIVE SBCAPE VALUES TO IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD ERODE ANY RESIDUAL EARLY DAY CAPPING AND ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. INITIAL
STORM MODE MAY BE A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND SHORT BOWING
SEGMENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE BY
SUNDAY EVENING AS MID LEVEL FORCING STRENGTHENS. WEAKER LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND QUICK TRANSITION TO MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
THE TORNADO THREAT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD
REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5 C/KM...THERE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT HAIL REPORTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE
MORE ROBUST NAM SOUNDINGS PROVE TRUE. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT BEFORE EXITING EAST BY EARLY MORNING
MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOW HUMIDITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S.

WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING PRODUCING MVFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS BY TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PRODUCING SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS.

04
&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 181128
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
628 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST. A LEAD SHORTWAVE NOW EJECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH
TODAY. THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. THIS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
TO WHICH LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
ALSO WITH RESPECT TO OVERALL AMOUNTS. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...PLAN
TO DEFER ANY DECISION REGARDING A FLOOD WATCH TO THE DAY SHIFT.

THERE SHOULD BE A TEMPORARY END TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING LEAD SHORTWAVE LATE TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS TO OVERSPREAD THE MID SOUTH
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY A 50+KT MID LEVEL JET EJECTING ACROSS THE OZARKS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL HELP TO STEEPEN MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. DESTABILIZATION WILL
ALSO BE AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WHICH SHOULD DRIVE SBCAPE VALUES TO IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD ERODE ANY RESIDUAL EARLY DAY CAPPING AND ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. INITIAL
STORM MODE MAY BE A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND SHORT BOWING
SEGMENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE BY
SUNDAY EVENING AS MID LEVEL FORCING STRENGTHENS. WEAKER LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND QUICK TRANSITION TO MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
THE TORNADO THREAT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD
REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5 C/KM...THERE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT HAIL REPORTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE
MORE ROBUST NAM SOUNDINGS PROVE TRUE. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT BEFORE EXITING EAST BY EARLY MORNING
MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOW HUMIDITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S.

WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING PRODUCING MVFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS BY TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PRODUCING SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS.

04
&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 181128
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
628 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST. A LEAD SHORTWAVE NOW EJECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH
TODAY. THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. THIS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
TO WHICH LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
ALSO WITH RESPECT TO OVERALL AMOUNTS. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...PLAN
TO DEFER ANY DECISION REGARDING A FLOOD WATCH TO THE DAY SHIFT.

THERE SHOULD BE A TEMPORARY END TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING LEAD SHORTWAVE LATE TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS TO OVERSPREAD THE MID SOUTH
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY A 50+KT MID LEVEL JET EJECTING ACROSS THE OZARKS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL HELP TO STEEPEN MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. DESTABILIZATION WILL
ALSO BE AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WHICH SHOULD DRIVE SBCAPE VALUES TO IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD ERODE ANY RESIDUAL EARLY DAY CAPPING AND ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. INITIAL
STORM MODE MAY BE A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND SHORT BOWING
SEGMENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE BY
SUNDAY EVENING AS MID LEVEL FORCING STRENGTHENS. WEAKER LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND QUICK TRANSITION TO MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
THE TORNADO THREAT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD
REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5 C/KM...THERE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT HAIL REPORTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE
MORE ROBUST NAM SOUNDINGS PROVE TRUE. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT BEFORE EXITING EAST BY EARLY MORNING
MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOW HUMIDITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S.

WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING PRODUCING MVFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS BY TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PRODUCING SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS.

04
&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 181111
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
711 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
FOG AT ALL SITES WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
A RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED AROUND 15Z. ONLY MIDLEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS A SE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL DRY OUT LOW
LEVELS AT TRI AND TYS. SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 4 KFT ARE
POSSIBLE AT CHA. RAIN WILL BE MOVING IN TONIGHT FROM SW TO
NE...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AROUND MIDNIGHT AT CHA. IFR VIS
IS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER RAIN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 181111
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
711 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
FOG AT ALL SITES WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
A RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED AROUND 15Z. ONLY MIDLEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS A SE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL DRY OUT LOW
LEVELS AT TRI AND TYS. SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 4 KFT ARE
POSSIBLE AT CHA. RAIN WILL BE MOVING IN TONIGHT FROM SW TO
NE...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AROUND MIDNIGHT AT CHA. IFR VIS
IS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER RAIN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

DGS



000
FXUS64 KMRX 181010 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
610 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED TO INCLUDE AREAS OF DENSE
FOG AND ADD THE HEADLINE FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. WITH
CLEARING...VISIBILITIES HAS DROPPED QUICKLY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             76  62  76  61 /  40 100  90  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  61  76  61 /  20 100  90  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       77  62  75  60 /  20 100  90  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              80  58  75  56 /  20  70  90  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 181010 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
610 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED TO INCLUDE AREAS OF DENSE
FOG AND ADD THE HEADLINE FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. WITH
CLEARING...VISIBILITIES HAS DROPPED QUICKLY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             76  62  76  61 /  40 100  90  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  61  76  61 /  20 100  90  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       77  62  75  60 /  20 100  90  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              80  58  75  56 /  20  70  90  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

DGS



000
FXUS64 KMRX 181010 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
610 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED TO INCLUDE AREAS OF DENSE
FOG AND ADD THE HEADLINE FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. WITH
CLEARING...VISIBILITIES HAS DROPPED QUICKLY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             76  62  76  61 /  40 100  90  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  61  76  61 /  20 100  90  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       77  62  75  60 /  20 100  90  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              80  58  75  56 /  20  70  90  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 181010 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
610 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED TO INCLUDE AREAS OF DENSE
FOG AND ADD THE HEADLINE FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. WITH
CLEARING...VISIBILITIES HAS DROPPED QUICKLY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             76  62  76  61 /  40 100  90  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  61  76  61 /  20 100  90  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       77  62  75  60 /  20 100  90  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              80  58  75  56 /  20  70  90  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

DGS



000
FXUS64 KMEG 180854
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
354 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST. A LEAD SHORTWAVE NOW EJECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH
TODAY. THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. THIS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
TO WHICH LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
ALSO WITH RESPECT TO OVERALL AMOUNTS. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...PLAN
TO DEFER ANY DECISION REGARDING A FLOOD WATCH TO THE DAY SHIFT.

THERE SHOULD BE A TEMPORARY END TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING LEAD SHORTWAVE LATE TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS TO OVERSPREAD THE MID SOUTH
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY A 50+KT MID LEVEL JET EJECTING ACROSS THE OZARKS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL HELP TO STEEPEN MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. DESTABILIZATION WILL
ALSO BE AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WHICH SHOULD DRIVE SBCAPE VALUES TO IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD ERODE ANY RESIDUAL EARLY DAY CAPPING AND ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. INITIAL
STORM MODE MAY BE A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND SHORT BOWING
SEGMENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE BY
SUNDAY EVENING AS MID LEVEL FORCING STRENGTHENS. WEAKER LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND QUICK TRANSITION TO MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
THE TORNADO THREAT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD
REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5 C/KM...THERE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT HAIL REPORTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE
MORE ROBUST NAM SOUNDINGS PROVE TRUE. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT BEFORE EXITING EAST BY EARLY MORNING
MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOW HUMIDITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S.

WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
IFR TO POSSIBLY VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FOG AND STRATUS
LIFTING AROUND MID-MORNING SATURDAY BECOMING VFR. SHRA AND TSRA
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHRAS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD...WITH EMBEDDED TSRAS...BY EARLY EVENING WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY LOWER.

LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 180854
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
354 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST. A LEAD SHORTWAVE NOW EJECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH
TODAY. THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. THIS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
TO WHICH LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
ALSO WITH RESPECT TO OVERALL AMOUNTS. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...PLAN
TO DEFER ANY DECISION REGARDING A FLOOD WATCH TO THE DAY SHIFT.

THERE SHOULD BE A TEMPORARY END TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING LEAD SHORTWAVE LATE TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS TO OVERSPREAD THE MID SOUTH
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY A 50+KT MID LEVEL JET EJECTING ACROSS THE OZARKS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL HELP TO STEEPEN MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. DESTABILIZATION WILL
ALSO BE AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WHICH SHOULD DRIVE SBCAPE VALUES TO IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD ERODE ANY RESIDUAL EARLY DAY CAPPING AND ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. INITIAL
STORM MODE MAY BE A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND SHORT BOWING
SEGMENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE BY
SUNDAY EVENING AS MID LEVEL FORCING STRENGTHENS. WEAKER LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND QUICK TRANSITION TO MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
THE TORNADO THREAT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD
REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5 C/KM...THERE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT HAIL REPORTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE
MORE ROBUST NAM SOUNDINGS PROVE TRUE. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT BEFORE EXITING EAST BY EARLY MORNING
MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOW HUMIDITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S.

WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
IFR TO POSSIBLY VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FOG AND STRATUS
LIFTING AROUND MID-MORNING SATURDAY BECOMING VFR. SHRA AND TSRA
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHRAS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD...WITH EMBEDDED TSRAS...BY EARLY EVENING WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY LOWER.

LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 180854
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
354 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST. A LEAD SHORTWAVE NOW EJECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH
TODAY. THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. THIS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
TO WHICH LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
ALSO WITH RESPECT TO OVERALL AMOUNTS. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...PLAN
TO DEFER ANY DECISION REGARDING A FLOOD WATCH TO THE DAY SHIFT.

THERE SHOULD BE A TEMPORARY END TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING LEAD SHORTWAVE LATE TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS TO OVERSPREAD THE MID SOUTH
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY A 50+KT MID LEVEL JET EJECTING ACROSS THE OZARKS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL HELP TO STEEPEN MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. DESTABILIZATION WILL
ALSO BE AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WHICH SHOULD DRIVE SBCAPE VALUES TO IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD ERODE ANY RESIDUAL EARLY DAY CAPPING AND ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. INITIAL
STORM MODE MAY BE A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND SHORT BOWING
SEGMENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE BY
SUNDAY EVENING AS MID LEVEL FORCING STRENGTHENS. WEAKER LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND QUICK TRANSITION TO MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
THE TORNADO THREAT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD
REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5 C/KM...THERE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT HAIL REPORTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE
MORE ROBUST NAM SOUNDINGS PROVE TRUE. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT BEFORE EXITING EAST BY EARLY MORNING
MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOW HUMIDITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S.

WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
IFR TO POSSIBLY VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FOG AND STRATUS
LIFTING AROUND MID-MORNING SATURDAY BECOMING VFR. SHRA AND TSRA
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHRAS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD...WITH EMBEDDED TSRAS...BY EARLY EVENING WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY LOWER.

LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 180854
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
354 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST. A LEAD SHORTWAVE NOW EJECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH
TODAY. THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. THIS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
TO WHICH LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
ALSO WITH RESPECT TO OVERALL AMOUNTS. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...PLAN
TO DEFER ANY DECISION REGARDING A FLOOD WATCH TO THE DAY SHIFT.

THERE SHOULD BE A TEMPORARY END TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING LEAD SHORTWAVE LATE TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS TO OVERSPREAD THE MID SOUTH
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY A 50+KT MID LEVEL JET EJECTING ACROSS THE OZARKS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL HELP TO STEEPEN MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. DESTABILIZATION WILL
ALSO BE AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WHICH SHOULD DRIVE SBCAPE VALUES TO IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD ERODE ANY RESIDUAL EARLY DAY CAPPING AND ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. INITIAL
STORM MODE MAY BE A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND SHORT BOWING
SEGMENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE BY
SUNDAY EVENING AS MID LEVEL FORCING STRENGTHENS. WEAKER LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND QUICK TRANSITION TO MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
THE TORNADO THREAT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD
REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5 C/KM...THERE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT HAIL REPORTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE
MORE ROBUST NAM SOUNDINGS PROVE TRUE. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT BEFORE EXITING EAST BY EARLY MORNING
MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOW HUMIDITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S.

WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
IFR TO POSSIBLY VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FOG AND STRATUS
LIFTING AROUND MID-MORNING SATURDAY BECOMING VFR. SHRA AND TSRA
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHRAS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD...WITH EMBEDDED TSRAS...BY EARLY EVENING WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY LOWER.

LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 180854
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
354 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST. A LEAD SHORTWAVE NOW EJECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH
TODAY. THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. THIS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
TO WHICH LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
ALSO WITH RESPECT TO OVERALL AMOUNTS. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...PLAN
TO DEFER ANY DECISION REGARDING A FLOOD WATCH TO THE DAY SHIFT.

THERE SHOULD BE A TEMPORARY END TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING LEAD SHORTWAVE LATE TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS TO OVERSPREAD THE MID SOUTH
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY A 50+KT MID LEVEL JET EJECTING ACROSS THE OZARKS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL HELP TO STEEPEN MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. DESTABILIZATION WILL
ALSO BE AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WHICH SHOULD DRIVE SBCAPE VALUES TO IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD ERODE ANY RESIDUAL EARLY DAY CAPPING AND ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. INITIAL
STORM MODE MAY BE A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND SHORT BOWING
SEGMENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE BY
SUNDAY EVENING AS MID LEVEL FORCING STRENGTHENS. WEAKER LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND QUICK TRANSITION TO MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
THE TORNADO THREAT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD
REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5 C/KM...THERE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT HAIL REPORTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE
MORE ROBUST NAM SOUNDINGS PROVE TRUE. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT BEFORE EXITING EAST BY EARLY MORNING
MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOW HUMIDITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S.

WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
IFR TO POSSIBLY VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FOG AND STRATUS
LIFTING AROUND MID-MORNING SATURDAY BECOMING VFR. SHRA AND TSRA
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHRAS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD...WITH EMBEDDED TSRAS...BY EARLY EVENING WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY LOWER.

LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 180854
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
354 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST. A LEAD SHORTWAVE NOW EJECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH
TODAY. THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. THIS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
TO WHICH LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
ALSO WITH RESPECT TO OVERALL AMOUNTS. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...PLAN
TO DEFER ANY DECISION REGARDING A FLOOD WATCH TO THE DAY SHIFT.

THERE SHOULD BE A TEMPORARY END TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING LEAD SHORTWAVE LATE TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS TO OVERSPREAD THE MID SOUTH
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY A 50+KT MID LEVEL JET EJECTING ACROSS THE OZARKS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL HELP TO STEEPEN MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. DESTABILIZATION WILL
ALSO BE AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WHICH SHOULD DRIVE SBCAPE VALUES TO IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD ERODE ANY RESIDUAL EARLY DAY CAPPING AND ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. INITIAL
STORM MODE MAY BE A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND SHORT BOWING
SEGMENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE BY
SUNDAY EVENING AS MID LEVEL FORCING STRENGTHENS. WEAKER LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND QUICK TRANSITION TO MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
THE TORNADO THREAT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD
REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5 C/KM...THERE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT HAIL REPORTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE
MORE ROBUST NAM SOUNDINGS PROVE TRUE. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT BEFORE EXITING EAST BY EARLY MORNING
MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOW HUMIDITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S.

WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
IFR TO POSSIBLY VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FOG AND STRATUS
LIFTING AROUND MID-MORNING SATURDAY BECOMING VFR. SHRA AND TSRA
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHRAS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD...WITH EMBEDDED TSRAS...BY EARLY EVENING WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY LOWER.

LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 180835
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
335 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT. SOME
FOG HAS DEVELOPED THANKS TO PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES AND LINGERING
SURFACE MOISTURE FROM ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK. WINDS
ARE ALSO CALM...WHICH IS ADDING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA ARE SHOWING AS LOW AS
QUARTER MILE UP TO AROUND 5 MILES FOR SITES REPORTING FOG. THE FOG
POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING OR SO AS TEMPERATURES
WARM UP A BIT.

THE TROUGH MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL START TO IMPACT THE
REGION WITH PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS ARE PLACING A BIT
OF QPF ON THE PLATEAU EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT CONTINUED WITH
THE TREND AND KEPT POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED POPS A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODELS ALSO ARE BRINGING PRECIP IN A BIT EARLIER.
MAIN BANDS OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN TOTALS AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OR MORE
IN PLACES.

A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP MOVES IN SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
LOW TRAVELS NORTHWARD AND THE MID STATE IS UNDER THE CLEAR SLOT
IN THE WARM SECTOR. SEVERE PARAMETERS HAVENT CHANGED MUCH SINCE
YESTERDAYS FORECAST...WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND
0-6KM SHEAR IN THE 35-45 KNOT RANGE. SPC OUTLOOK STILL HAS THE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SOME ISOLATED CELLS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN
THE WARM SECTOR...HOWEVER THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A MORE
LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE THE MAIN IMPACT WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CELLS
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE.

DRIER WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE SOME SUBTLE DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW AND A COLD FRONT
FROM A GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW MOVE IN. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL
DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER BY NEXT SATURDAY BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A GOOD
AMOUNT OF QPF OVER THE REGION. RAN WITH HIGHER POPS AT THE END OF
THE EXTENDED TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      79  63  76  61 /  30 100  60  60
CLARKSVILLE    78  63  74  59 /  20 100  60  60
CROSSVILLE     75  61  71  60 /  30 100  80  60
COLUMBIA       78  63  75  60 /  40 100  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   76  63  74  59 /  40 100  60  60
WAVERLY        79  64  76  60 /  30 100  50  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BARNWELL






000
FXUS64 KOHX 180835
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
335 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT. SOME
FOG HAS DEVELOPED THANKS TO PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES AND LINGERING
SURFACE MOISTURE FROM ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK. WINDS
ARE ALSO CALM...WHICH IS ADDING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA ARE SHOWING AS LOW AS
QUARTER MILE UP TO AROUND 5 MILES FOR SITES REPORTING FOG. THE FOG
POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING OR SO AS TEMPERATURES
WARM UP A BIT.

THE TROUGH MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL START TO IMPACT THE
REGION WITH PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS ARE PLACING A BIT
OF QPF ON THE PLATEAU EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT CONTINUED WITH
THE TREND AND KEPT POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED POPS A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODELS ALSO ARE BRINGING PRECIP IN A BIT EARLIER.
MAIN BANDS OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN TOTALS AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OR MORE
IN PLACES.

A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP MOVES IN SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
LOW TRAVELS NORTHWARD AND THE MID STATE IS UNDER THE CLEAR SLOT
IN THE WARM SECTOR. SEVERE PARAMETERS HAVENT CHANGED MUCH SINCE
YESTERDAYS FORECAST...WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND
0-6KM SHEAR IN THE 35-45 KNOT RANGE. SPC OUTLOOK STILL HAS THE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SOME ISOLATED CELLS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN
THE WARM SECTOR...HOWEVER THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A MORE
LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE THE MAIN IMPACT WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CELLS
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE.

DRIER WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE SOME SUBTLE DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW AND A COLD FRONT
FROM A GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW MOVE IN. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL
DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER BY NEXT SATURDAY BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A GOOD
AMOUNT OF QPF OVER THE REGION. RAN WITH HIGHER POPS AT THE END OF
THE EXTENDED TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      79  63  76  61 /  30 100  60  60
CLARKSVILLE    78  63  74  59 /  20 100  60  60
CROSSVILLE     75  61  71  60 /  30 100  80  60
COLUMBIA       78  63  75  60 /  40 100  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   76  63  74  59 /  40 100  60  60
WAVERLY        79  64  76  60 /  30 100  50  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BARNWELL





000
FXUS64 KMRX 180715
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG IN AREAS WHERE CLEARING WILL TAKE
PLACE. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING AND A DOWNSLOPE
SE FLOW ALOFT INTENSIFYING IN THE AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD SEE THE
WARMEST TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN TN VALLEY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 IN
THE TRI-CITIES AREA. GREATER CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTH WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S IN THAT AREA. AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD
PROVIDE A LITTLE INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POP IN THE AFTERNOON.

MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WITH GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACTING IN CONJUNCTINO WITH ON MARGINAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MENTIONED.
SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF QPF BEFORE
12Z...WHILE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL SUPPRESS QPF NORTH FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SUNDAY MORNING CONTINUES THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE ARKANSAS/TENNESSEE BORDER. SOME
OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY MIDNIGHT THROUGH AROUND
SUNDAY AT NOON AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE GENERALLY NEAR OR
ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF NEAR 1 INCH OF
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS. WE WILL THEN NEED TO TURN OUR ATTENTION TO SOME
POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHING STORMS AS THEY FORM ACROSS FAR EASTERN TEXAS INTO FAR
WESTERN TENNESSEE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES. COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS CONGEAL INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE STATE OF TENNESSEE. AT THIS POINT THINK THAT THE
STORMS WILL LOSE A LOT OF THEIR PUNCH OVERNIGHT, BUT WON`T RULE OUT
THE CHANCE THAT A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR
CWA.

WILL STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING
AROUND THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES
IT`S WAY THROUGH THE AREA. WE WILL CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT LEADING TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES STAY AWAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW RIPPLES OF ENERGY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK LEADING TO SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. ECMWF IS STARTING TO COME MORE IN
LINE WITH THE GFS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE
NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN. RIGHT NOW THE DETAILS ARE FUZZY, BUT
WE COULD BE IN FOR A WET START TO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             76  62  76  61 /  40 100  90  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  61  76  61 /  20 100  90  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       77  62  75  60 /  20 100  90  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              80  58  75  56 /  20  70  90  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 180715
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG IN AREAS WHERE CLEARING WILL TAKE
PLACE. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING AND A DOWNSLOPE
SE FLOW ALOFT INTENSIFYING IN THE AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD SEE THE
WARMEST TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN TN VALLEY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 IN
THE TRI-CITIES AREA. GREATER CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTH WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S IN THAT AREA. AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD
PROVIDE A LITTLE INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POP IN THE AFTERNOON.

MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WITH GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACTING IN CONJUNCTINO WITH ON MARGINAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MENTIONED.
SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF QPF BEFORE
12Z...WHILE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL SUPPRESS QPF NORTH FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SUNDAY MORNING CONTINUES THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE ARKANSAS/TENNESSEE BORDER. SOME
OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY MIDNIGHT THROUGH AROUND
SUNDAY AT NOON AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE GENERALLY NEAR OR
ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF NEAR 1 INCH OF
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS. WE WILL THEN NEED TO TURN OUR ATTENTION TO SOME
POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHING STORMS AS THEY FORM ACROSS FAR EASTERN TEXAS INTO FAR
WESTERN TENNESSEE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES. COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS CONGEAL INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE STATE OF TENNESSEE. AT THIS POINT THINK THAT THE
STORMS WILL LOSE A LOT OF THEIR PUNCH OVERNIGHT, BUT WON`T RULE OUT
THE CHANCE THAT A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR
CWA.

WILL STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING
AROUND THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES
IT`S WAY THROUGH THE AREA. WE WILL CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT LEADING TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES STAY AWAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW RIPPLES OF ENERGY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK LEADING TO SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. ECMWF IS STARTING TO COME MORE IN
LINE WITH THE GFS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE
NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN. RIGHT NOW THE DETAILS ARE FUZZY, BUT
WE COULD BE IN FOR A WET START TO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             76  62  76  61 /  40 100  90  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  61  76  61 /  20 100  90  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       77  62  75  60 /  20 100  90  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              80  58  75  56 /  20  70  90  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/ABM



000
FXUS64 KMRX 180715
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG IN AREAS WHERE CLEARING WILL TAKE
PLACE. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING AND A DOWNSLOPE
SE FLOW ALOFT INTENSIFYING IN THE AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD SEE THE
WARMEST TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN TN VALLEY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 IN
THE TRI-CITIES AREA. GREATER CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTH WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S IN THAT AREA. AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD
PROVIDE A LITTLE INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POP IN THE AFTERNOON.

MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WITH GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACTING IN CONJUNCTINO WITH ON MARGINAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MENTIONED.
SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF QPF BEFORE
12Z...WHILE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL SUPPRESS QPF NORTH FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SUNDAY MORNING CONTINUES THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE ARKANSAS/TENNESSEE BORDER. SOME
OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY MIDNIGHT THROUGH AROUND
SUNDAY AT NOON AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE GENERALLY NEAR OR
ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF NEAR 1 INCH OF
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS. WE WILL THEN NEED TO TURN OUR ATTENTION TO SOME
POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHING STORMS AS THEY FORM ACROSS FAR EASTERN TEXAS INTO FAR
WESTERN TENNESSEE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES. COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS CONGEAL INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE STATE OF TENNESSEE. AT THIS POINT THINK THAT THE
STORMS WILL LOSE A LOT OF THEIR PUNCH OVERNIGHT, BUT WON`T RULE OUT
THE CHANCE THAT A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR
CWA.

WILL STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING
AROUND THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES
IT`S WAY THROUGH THE AREA. WE WILL CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT LEADING TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES STAY AWAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW RIPPLES OF ENERGY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK LEADING TO SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. ECMWF IS STARTING TO COME MORE IN
LINE WITH THE GFS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE
NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN. RIGHT NOW THE DETAILS ARE FUZZY, BUT
WE COULD BE IN FOR A WET START TO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             76  62  76  61 /  40 100  90  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  61  76  61 /  20 100  90  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       77  62  75  60 /  20 100  90  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              80  58  75  56 /  20  70  90  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/ABM



000
FXUS64 KMRX 180715
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG IN AREAS WHERE CLEARING WILL TAKE
PLACE. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING AND A DOWNSLOPE
SE FLOW ALOFT INTENSIFYING IN THE AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD SEE THE
WARMEST TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN TN VALLEY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 IN
THE TRI-CITIES AREA. GREATER CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTH WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S IN THAT AREA. AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD
PROVIDE A LITTLE INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POP IN THE AFTERNOON.

MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WITH GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACTING IN CONJUNCTINO WITH ON MARGINAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MENTIONED.
SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF QPF BEFORE
12Z...WHILE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL SUPPRESS QPF NORTH FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SUNDAY MORNING CONTINUES THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE ARKANSAS/TENNESSEE BORDER. SOME
OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY MIDNIGHT THROUGH AROUND
SUNDAY AT NOON AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE GENERALLY NEAR OR
ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF NEAR 1 INCH OF
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS. WE WILL THEN NEED TO TURN OUR ATTENTION TO SOME
POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHING STORMS AS THEY FORM ACROSS FAR EASTERN TEXAS INTO FAR
WESTERN TENNESSEE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES. COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS CONGEAL INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE STATE OF TENNESSEE. AT THIS POINT THINK THAT THE
STORMS WILL LOSE A LOT OF THEIR PUNCH OVERNIGHT, BUT WON`T RULE OUT
THE CHANCE THAT A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR
CWA.

WILL STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING
AROUND THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES
IT`S WAY THROUGH THE AREA. WE WILL CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT LEADING TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES STAY AWAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW RIPPLES OF ENERGY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK LEADING TO SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. ECMWF IS STARTING TO COME MORE IN
LINE WITH THE GFS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE
NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN. RIGHT NOW THE DETAILS ARE FUZZY, BUT
WE COULD BE IN FOR A WET START TO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             76  62  76  61 /  40 100  90  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  61  76  61 /  20 100  90  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       77  62  75  60 /  20 100  90  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              80  58  75  56 /  20  70  90  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/ABM



000
FXUS64 KMRX 180715
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG IN AREAS WHERE CLEARING WILL TAKE
PLACE. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING AND A DOWNSLOPE
SE FLOW ALOFT INTENSIFYING IN THE AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD SEE THE
WARMEST TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN TN VALLEY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 IN
THE TRI-CITIES AREA. GREATER CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTH WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S IN THAT AREA. AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD
PROVIDE A LITTLE INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POP IN THE AFTERNOON.

MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WITH GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACTING IN CONJUNCTINO WITH ON MARGINAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MENTIONED.
SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF QPF BEFORE
12Z...WHILE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL SUPPRESS QPF NORTH FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SUNDAY MORNING CONTINUES THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE ARKANSAS/TENNESSEE BORDER. SOME
OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY MIDNIGHT THROUGH AROUND
SUNDAY AT NOON AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE GENERALLY NEAR OR
ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF NEAR 1 INCH OF
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS. WE WILL THEN NEED TO TURN OUR ATTENTION TO SOME
POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHING STORMS AS THEY FORM ACROSS FAR EASTERN TEXAS INTO FAR
WESTERN TENNESSEE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES. COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS CONGEAL INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE STATE OF TENNESSEE. AT THIS POINT THINK THAT THE
STORMS WILL LOSE A LOT OF THEIR PUNCH OVERNIGHT, BUT WON`T RULE OUT
THE CHANCE THAT A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR
CWA.

WILL STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING
AROUND THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES
IT`S WAY THROUGH THE AREA. WE WILL CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT LEADING TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES STAY AWAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW RIPPLES OF ENERGY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK LEADING TO SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. ECMWF IS STARTING TO COME MORE IN
LINE WITH THE GFS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE
NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN. RIGHT NOW THE DETAILS ARE FUZZY, BUT
WE COULD BE IN FOR A WET START TO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             76  62  76  61 /  40 100  90  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  61  76  61 /  20 100  90  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       77  62  75  60 /  20 100  90  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              80  58  75  56 /  20  70  90  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/ABM



000
FXUS64 KMRX 180715
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG IN AREAS WHERE CLEARING WILL TAKE
PLACE. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING AND A DOWNSLOPE
SE FLOW ALOFT INTENSIFYING IN THE AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD SEE THE
WARMEST TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN TN VALLEY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 IN
THE TRI-CITIES AREA. GREATER CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTH WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S IN THAT AREA. AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD
PROVIDE A LITTLE INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POP IN THE AFTERNOON.

MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WITH GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACTING IN CONJUNCTINO WITH ON MARGINAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MENTIONED.
SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF QPF BEFORE
12Z...WHILE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL SUPPRESS QPF NORTH FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SUNDAY MORNING CONTINUES THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE ARKANSAS/TENNESSEE BORDER. SOME
OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY MIDNIGHT THROUGH AROUND
SUNDAY AT NOON AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE GENERALLY NEAR OR
ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF NEAR 1 INCH OF
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS. WE WILL THEN NEED TO TURN OUR ATTENTION TO SOME
POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHING STORMS AS THEY FORM ACROSS FAR EASTERN TEXAS INTO FAR
WESTERN TENNESSEE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES. COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS CONGEAL INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE STATE OF TENNESSEE. AT THIS POINT THINK THAT THE
STORMS WILL LOSE A LOT OF THEIR PUNCH OVERNIGHT, BUT WON`T RULE OUT
THE CHANCE THAT A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR
CWA.

WILL STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING
AROUND THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES
IT`S WAY THROUGH THE AREA. WE WILL CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT LEADING TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES STAY AWAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW RIPPLES OF ENERGY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK LEADING TO SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. ECMWF IS STARTING TO COME MORE IN
LINE WITH THE GFS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE
NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN. RIGHT NOW THE DETAILS ARE FUZZY, BUT
WE COULD BE IN FOR A WET START TO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             76  62  76  61 /  40 100  90  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  61  76  61 /  20 100  90  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       77  62  75  60 /  20 100  90  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              80  58  75  56 /  20  70  90  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/ABM



000
FXUS64 KMRX 180515
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
115 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
FORCAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS LOW AS MODELS ARE
DOING A POOR JOB OF PICKING UP ON THE CURRENT CIG HEIGHTS AND
TRENDS...WHICH ARE HIGHER THAN THEY PROJECTED. FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WILL KEEP CURRENT CONDITIONS IN PLACE IN THE TAFS...BUT
BEGIN TO LOWER CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE AT CHA TO MVFR. TYS AND TRI WILL
INCREASING COME UNDER DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS THAT SHOULD KEEP CIGS
VFR. SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIP APPROACHING CHA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS



000
FXUS64 KMRX 180515
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
115 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
FORCAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS LOW AS MODELS ARE
DOING A POOR JOB OF PICKING UP ON THE CURRENT CIG HEIGHTS AND
TRENDS...WHICH ARE HIGHER THAN THEY PROJECTED. FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WILL KEEP CURRENT CONDITIONS IN PLACE IN THE TAFS...BUT
BEGIN TO LOWER CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE AT CHA TO MVFR. TYS AND TRI WILL
INCREASING COME UNDER DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS THAT SHOULD KEEP CIGS
VFR. SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIP APPROACHING CHA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 180515
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
115 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
FORCAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS LOW AS MODELS ARE
DOING A POOR JOB OF PICKING UP ON THE CURRENT CIG HEIGHTS AND
TRENDS...WHICH ARE HIGHER THAN THEY PROJECTED. FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WILL KEEP CURRENT CONDITIONS IN PLACE IN THE TAFS...BUT
BEGIN TO LOWER CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE AT CHA TO MVFR. TYS AND TRI WILL
INCREASING COME UNDER DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS THAT SHOULD KEEP CIGS
VFR. SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIP APPROACHING CHA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 180515
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
115 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
FORCAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS LOW AS MODELS ARE
DOING A POOR JOB OF PICKING UP ON THE CURRENT CIG HEIGHTS AND
TRENDS...WHICH ARE HIGHER THAN THEY PROJECTED. FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WILL KEEP CURRENT CONDITIONS IN PLACE IN THE TAFS...BUT
BEGIN TO LOWER CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE AT CHA TO MVFR. TYS AND TRI WILL
INCREASING COME UNDER DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS THAT SHOULD KEEP CIGS
VFR. SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIP APPROACHING CHA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS



000
FXUS64 KOHX 180436
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1136 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...THE MAIN CONCERN AND CHALLENGE FOR
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE THE FORMATION OF FOG AND
STRATUS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MAINLY MVFR
OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPO IFR OR PERHAPS LIFR AROUND DAYBREAK.
SPECIFIC CIGS/VSBYS WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY...SO EXPECT SEVERAL
AMENDMENTS. ON SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 16Z.
AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD (19/06Z) A LOW PRESSURE AND WARM
FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE MENTION OF LIGHT EVENING SHWRS FOR TONIGHT FROM
THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 631 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS BASED ON CURRENT SFC
OBS...SATELLITE...AND REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...ALONG WITH CONSENSUS
OF SHORT RANGE MODELS...IN SHOWING SOME LINGERING SHWRS THRU THE MID
EVENING HRS ACROSS LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE TN/AL BORDER AND THE
SRN HALF OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION. BELIEVE THE MID STATE
WILL REMAIN DRY REMINDER OF TONIGHT. WILL EXTEND AREAS FOG THRU MID
MORNING HRS.

31

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 318 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY MILD ACROSS THE
MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH 2 PM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE, SCOOTING TO
OUR SOUTH, ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA, WAS PRODUCING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTREME SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID-STATE AND
THOSE COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL. IN FACT,
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POP UP AS
FAR NORTH AS CSV THIS EVENING.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA LATE THIS EVENING, BELIEVE
AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ENSUE OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG.  ANY FOG THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO LIFT AND FORM A LOW OVC CIG.
HOWEVER, IT`S POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE, ESPECIALLY OVER ABOUT THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE RETURN MOISTURE ON SATURDAY, AND
IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THAT
MEANS, MUCH OF THE MID-STATE COULD EEK OUT ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY DAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT, AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN TN INTO WESTERN KY. ONE OF THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WITH PWS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.5" THE RAINS WE HAD EARLIER THIS WEEK
HAVE SATURATED THE GROUND PRETTY WELL. SO, ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
THAT OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING.

WE WILL HAVE A LOW CAPE/HIGH HELICITY ENVIRONMENT DURING THE
SAT/SUN EVENT, AND WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING JUST TO OUR WEST,
WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT TO SEE IF ANY OF THE CONVECTION IS
ABLE TO TAP THAT MINIMAL CAPE AND PRODUCE ANY STRONG-TO-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SWATH OF LOW LEVEL HELICITIES AROUND 300 M2/S2
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA BTWN 09Z AND 13Z EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT
AS OF NOW, SPC HAS THE MID-STATE ONLY IN A GENERAL TSTM AREA
THROUGH 12Z SUN. MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE STORMS WOULD PROBABLY BE OVER OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES DURING A RELATIVELY BRIEF WINDOW BETWEEN 11Z AND
15Z, WHEN THE RISING SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO KICK UP THE CAPES JUST
A BIT. IF HELICITIES REACH FORECAST VALUES, IT WOULDN`T BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION TO SEE A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES TRY TO SPIN UP. HOWEVER,
ON THE OTHER HAND, WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY,
SFC-BASED CAPES MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE AND TAP.

A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, AND WILL LIKELY
BE ATTENDED BY A SQUALL LINE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS US IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS BTWN 12Z/19 AND 12Z/20 AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THOSE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS, GUSTY
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS, AND HAIL.

WE FINALLY GET TO SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER NEXT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA
AND GIVES US A FEW CHILLY MORNINGS, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
MEANWHILE, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD, AND AVERAGE BETWEEN
65 AND 70 DEGREES EACH DAY.

LONG TERM...WE MAY SEE A WARM FRONT LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AND THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WELL.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 180436
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1136 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...THE MAIN CONCERN AND CHALLENGE FOR
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE THE FORMATION OF FOG AND
STRATUS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MAINLY MVFR
OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPO IFR OR PERHAPS LIFR AROUND DAYBREAK.
SPECIFIC CIGS/VSBYS WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY...SO EXPECT SEVERAL
AMENDMENTS. ON SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 16Z.
AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD (19/06Z) A LOW PRESSURE AND WARM
FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE MENTION OF LIGHT EVENING SHWRS FOR TONIGHT FROM
THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 631 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS BASED ON CURRENT SFC
OBS...SATELLITE...AND REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...ALONG WITH CONSENSUS
OF SHORT RANGE MODELS...IN SHOWING SOME LINGERING SHWRS THRU THE MID
EVENING HRS ACROSS LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE TN/AL BORDER AND THE
SRN HALF OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION. BELIEVE THE MID STATE
WILL REMAIN DRY REMINDER OF TONIGHT. WILL EXTEND AREAS FOG THRU MID
MORNING HRS.

31

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 318 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY MILD ACROSS THE
MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH 2 PM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE, SCOOTING TO
OUR SOUTH, ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA, WAS PRODUCING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTREME SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID-STATE AND
THOSE COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL. IN FACT,
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POP UP AS
FAR NORTH AS CSV THIS EVENING.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA LATE THIS EVENING, BELIEVE
AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ENSUE OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG.  ANY FOG THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO LIFT AND FORM A LOW OVC CIG.
HOWEVER, IT`S POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE, ESPECIALLY OVER ABOUT THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE RETURN MOISTURE ON SATURDAY, AND
IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THAT
MEANS, MUCH OF THE MID-STATE COULD EEK OUT ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY DAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT, AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN TN INTO WESTERN KY. ONE OF THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WITH PWS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.5" THE RAINS WE HAD EARLIER THIS WEEK
HAVE SATURATED THE GROUND PRETTY WELL. SO, ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
THAT OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING.

WE WILL HAVE A LOW CAPE/HIGH HELICITY ENVIRONMENT DURING THE
SAT/SUN EVENT, AND WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING JUST TO OUR WEST,
WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT TO SEE IF ANY OF THE CONVECTION IS
ABLE TO TAP THAT MINIMAL CAPE AND PRODUCE ANY STRONG-TO-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SWATH OF LOW LEVEL HELICITIES AROUND 300 M2/S2
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA BTWN 09Z AND 13Z EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT
AS OF NOW, SPC HAS THE MID-STATE ONLY IN A GENERAL TSTM AREA
THROUGH 12Z SUN. MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE STORMS WOULD PROBABLY BE OVER OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES DURING A RELATIVELY BRIEF WINDOW BETWEEN 11Z AND
15Z, WHEN THE RISING SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO KICK UP THE CAPES JUST
A BIT. IF HELICITIES REACH FORECAST VALUES, IT WOULDN`T BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION TO SEE A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES TRY TO SPIN UP. HOWEVER,
ON THE OTHER HAND, WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY,
SFC-BASED CAPES MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE AND TAP.

A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, AND WILL LIKELY
BE ATTENDED BY A SQUALL LINE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS US IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS BTWN 12Z/19 AND 12Z/20 AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THOSE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS, GUSTY
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS, AND HAIL.

WE FINALLY GET TO SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER NEXT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA
AND GIVES US A FEW CHILLY MORNINGS, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
MEANWHILE, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD, AND AVERAGE BETWEEN
65 AND 70 DEGREES EACH DAY.

LONG TERM...WE MAY SEE A WARM FRONT LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AND THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WELL.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 180436
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1136 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...THE MAIN CONCERN AND CHALLENGE FOR
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE THE FORMATION OF FOG AND
STRATUS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MAINLY MVFR
OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPO IFR OR PERHAPS LIFR AROUND DAYBREAK.
SPECIFIC CIGS/VSBYS WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY...SO EXPECT SEVERAL
AMENDMENTS. ON SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 16Z.
AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD (19/06Z) A LOW PRESSURE AND WARM
FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE MENTION OF LIGHT EVENING SHWRS FOR TONIGHT FROM
THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 631 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS BASED ON CURRENT SFC
OBS...SATELLITE...AND REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...ALONG WITH CONSENSUS
OF SHORT RANGE MODELS...IN SHOWING SOME LINGERING SHWRS THRU THE MID
EVENING HRS ACROSS LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE TN/AL BORDER AND THE
SRN HALF OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION. BELIEVE THE MID STATE
WILL REMAIN DRY REMINDER OF TONIGHT. WILL EXTEND AREAS FOG THRU MID
MORNING HRS.

31

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 318 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY MILD ACROSS THE
MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH 2 PM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE, SCOOTING TO
OUR SOUTH, ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA, WAS PRODUCING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTREME SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID-STATE AND
THOSE COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL. IN FACT,
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POP UP AS
FAR NORTH AS CSV THIS EVENING.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA LATE THIS EVENING, BELIEVE
AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ENSUE OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG.  ANY FOG THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO LIFT AND FORM A LOW OVC CIG.
HOWEVER, IT`S POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE, ESPECIALLY OVER ABOUT THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE RETURN MOISTURE ON SATURDAY, AND
IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THAT
MEANS, MUCH OF THE MID-STATE COULD EEK OUT ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY DAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT, AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN TN INTO WESTERN KY. ONE OF THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WITH PWS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.5" THE RAINS WE HAD EARLIER THIS WEEK
HAVE SATURATED THE GROUND PRETTY WELL. SO, ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
THAT OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING.

WE WILL HAVE A LOW CAPE/HIGH HELICITY ENVIRONMENT DURING THE
SAT/SUN EVENT, AND WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING JUST TO OUR WEST,
WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT TO SEE IF ANY OF THE CONVECTION IS
ABLE TO TAP THAT MINIMAL CAPE AND PRODUCE ANY STRONG-TO-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SWATH OF LOW LEVEL HELICITIES AROUND 300 M2/S2
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA BTWN 09Z AND 13Z EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT
AS OF NOW, SPC HAS THE MID-STATE ONLY IN A GENERAL TSTM AREA
THROUGH 12Z SUN. MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE STORMS WOULD PROBABLY BE OVER OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES DURING A RELATIVELY BRIEF WINDOW BETWEEN 11Z AND
15Z, WHEN THE RISING SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO KICK UP THE CAPES JUST
A BIT. IF HELICITIES REACH FORECAST VALUES, IT WOULDN`T BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION TO SEE A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES TRY TO SPIN UP. HOWEVER,
ON THE OTHER HAND, WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY,
SFC-BASED CAPES MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE AND TAP.

A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, AND WILL LIKELY
BE ATTENDED BY A SQUALL LINE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS US IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS BTWN 12Z/19 AND 12Z/20 AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THOSE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS, GUSTY
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS, AND HAIL.

WE FINALLY GET TO SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER NEXT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA
AND GIVES US A FEW CHILLY MORNINGS, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
MEANWHILE, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD, AND AVERAGE BETWEEN
65 AND 70 DEGREES EACH DAY.

LONG TERM...WE MAY SEE A WARM FRONT LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AND THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WELL.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 180436
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1136 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...THE MAIN CONCERN AND CHALLENGE FOR
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE THE FORMATION OF FOG AND
STRATUS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MAINLY MVFR
OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPO IFR OR PERHAPS LIFR AROUND DAYBREAK.
SPECIFIC CIGS/VSBYS WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY...SO EXPECT SEVERAL
AMENDMENTS. ON SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 16Z.
AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD (19/06Z) A LOW PRESSURE AND WARM
FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE MENTION OF LIGHT EVENING SHWRS FOR TONIGHT FROM
THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 631 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS BASED ON CURRENT SFC
OBS...SATELLITE...AND REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...ALONG WITH CONSENSUS
OF SHORT RANGE MODELS...IN SHOWING SOME LINGERING SHWRS THRU THE MID
EVENING HRS ACROSS LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE TN/AL BORDER AND THE
SRN HALF OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION. BELIEVE THE MID STATE
WILL REMAIN DRY REMINDER OF TONIGHT. WILL EXTEND AREAS FOG THRU MID
MORNING HRS.

31

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 318 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY MILD ACROSS THE
MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH 2 PM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE, SCOOTING TO
OUR SOUTH, ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA, WAS PRODUCING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTREME SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID-STATE AND
THOSE COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL. IN FACT,
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POP UP AS
FAR NORTH AS CSV THIS EVENING.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA LATE THIS EVENING, BELIEVE
AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ENSUE OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG.  ANY FOG THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO LIFT AND FORM A LOW OVC CIG.
HOWEVER, IT`S POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE, ESPECIALLY OVER ABOUT THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE RETURN MOISTURE ON SATURDAY, AND
IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THAT
MEANS, MUCH OF THE MID-STATE COULD EEK OUT ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY DAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT, AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN TN INTO WESTERN KY. ONE OF THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WITH PWS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.5" THE RAINS WE HAD EARLIER THIS WEEK
HAVE SATURATED THE GROUND PRETTY WELL. SO, ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
THAT OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING.

WE WILL HAVE A LOW CAPE/HIGH HELICITY ENVIRONMENT DURING THE
SAT/SUN EVENT, AND WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING JUST TO OUR WEST,
WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT TO SEE IF ANY OF THE CONVECTION IS
ABLE TO TAP THAT MINIMAL CAPE AND PRODUCE ANY STRONG-TO-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SWATH OF LOW LEVEL HELICITIES AROUND 300 M2/S2
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA BTWN 09Z AND 13Z EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT
AS OF NOW, SPC HAS THE MID-STATE ONLY IN A GENERAL TSTM AREA
THROUGH 12Z SUN. MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE STORMS WOULD PROBABLY BE OVER OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES DURING A RELATIVELY BRIEF WINDOW BETWEEN 11Z AND
15Z, WHEN THE RISING SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO KICK UP THE CAPES JUST
A BIT. IF HELICITIES REACH FORECAST VALUES, IT WOULDN`T BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION TO SEE A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES TRY TO SPIN UP. HOWEVER,
ON THE OTHER HAND, WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY,
SFC-BASED CAPES MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE AND TAP.

A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, AND WILL LIKELY
BE ATTENDED BY A SQUALL LINE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS US IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS BTWN 12Z/19 AND 12Z/20 AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THOSE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS, GUSTY
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS, AND HAIL.

WE FINALLY GET TO SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER NEXT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA
AND GIVES US A FEW CHILLY MORNINGS, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
MEANWHILE, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD, AND AVERAGE BETWEEN
65 AND 70 DEGREES EACH DAY.

LONG TERM...WE MAY SEE A WARM FRONT LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AND THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WELL.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMEG 180432
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1132 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

UPDATE...

CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS CONTINUES
TO INVADE THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...LIGHT WINDS AT
THE SFC AND RECENT RAINFALL MAY ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE...WILL
ONLY UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE LARGE
AREA OF RAIN THAT WAS SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
IS FALLING APART AND NEVER MADE MUCH PROGRESS INTO WEST TENNESSEE.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT BY EARLY EVENING AND SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO NORTH MISSISSIPPI. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT SOME
TONIGHT BUT WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUDS SOME AREAS OF FOG MAY
DEVELOP AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ON SATURDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG
THE GULF COAST WILL START LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AS IT
GETS CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN STARTING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

BY SUNDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE MAY BE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY
OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS.

BY MONDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN
ENDING MONDAY MORNING OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH. AS A RESULT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND NEXT FRIDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
IFR TO POSSIBLY VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FOG AND STRATUS
LIFTING AROUND MID-MORNING SATURDAY BECOMING VFR. SHRA AND TSRA
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHRAS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD...WITH EMBEDDED TSRAS...BY EARLY EVENING WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY LOWER.

LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 180432
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1132 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

UPDATE...

CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS CONTINUES
TO INVADE THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...LIGHT WINDS AT
THE SFC AND RECENT RAINFALL MAY ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE...WILL
ONLY UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE LARGE
AREA OF RAIN THAT WAS SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
IS FALLING APART AND NEVER MADE MUCH PROGRESS INTO WEST TENNESSEE.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT BY EARLY EVENING AND SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO NORTH MISSISSIPPI. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT SOME
TONIGHT BUT WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUDS SOME AREAS OF FOG MAY
DEVELOP AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ON SATURDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG
THE GULF COAST WILL START LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AS IT
GETS CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN STARTING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

BY SUNDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE MAY BE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY
OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS.

BY MONDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN
ENDING MONDAY MORNING OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH. AS A RESULT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND NEXT FRIDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
IFR TO POSSIBLY VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FOG AND STRATUS
LIFTING AROUND MID-MORNING SATURDAY BECOMING VFR. SHRA AND TSRA
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHRAS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD...WITH EMBEDDED TSRAS...BY EARLY EVENING WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY LOWER.

LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 180305
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1005 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...

CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS CONTINUES
TO INVADE THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...LIGHT WINDS AT
THE SFC AND RECENT RAINFALL MAY ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE...WILL
ONLY UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE LARGE
AREA OF RAIN THAT WAS SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
IS FALLING APART AND NEVER MADE MUCH PROGRESS INTO WEST TENNESSEE.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT BY EARLY EVENING AND SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO NORTH MISSISSIPPI. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT SOME
TONIGHT BUT WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUDS SOME AREAS OF FOG MAY
DEVELOP AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ON SATURDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG
THE GULF COAST WILL START LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AS IT
GETS CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN STARTING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

BY SUNDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE MAY BE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY
OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS.

BY MONDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN
ENDING MONDAY MORNING OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH. AS A RESULT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND NEXT FRIDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BREAKUP AND SHOULD DISSIPATE SOON AT KMKL
AND KTUP. EXPECT VFR CONDS THROUGH THE EVENING THEN FOG AND
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18/05Z WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG. IFR TO
POSSIBLY VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FOG AND STRATUS LIFTING
AROUND MID-MORNING SATURDAY BECOMING VFR. TSRA CHANCES BEGIN TO
INCREASE BY MID-AFTERNOON AND HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS AT ALL SITES.

LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&



&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 180228 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
928 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE MENTION OF LIGHT EVENING SHWRS FOR TONIGHT FROM
THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 645 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP...WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK (12Z)
SATURDAY...AND POSSIBLY SOME LIFR. EXACT VSBYS/CIGS ARE HARD TO
DETERMINE AT THIS TIME...SO EXPECT SEVERAL AMENDMENTS THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS THE AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AGAIN BY 18/16Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...MAINLY FROM THE ENE.

13

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 631 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS BASED ON CURRENT SFC
OBS...SATELLITE...AND REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...ALONG WITH CONSENSUS
OF SHORT RANGE MODELS...IN SHOWING SOME LINGERING SHWRS THRU THE MID
EVENING HRS ACROSS LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE TN/AL BORDER AND THE
SRN HALF OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION. BELIEVE THE MID STATE
WILL REMAIN DRY REMINDER OF TONIGHT. WILL EXTEND AREAS FOG THRU MID
MORNING HRS.

31

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 318 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY MILD ACROSS THE
MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH 2 PM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE, SCOOTING TO
OUR SOUTH, ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA, WAS PRODUCING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTREME SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID-STATE AND
THOSE COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL. IN FACT,
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POP UP AS
FAR NORTH AS CSV THIS EVENING.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA LATE THIS EVENING, BELIEVE
AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ENSUE OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG.  ANY FOG THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO LIFT AND FORM A LOW OVC CIG.
HOWEVER, IT`S POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE, ESPECIALLY OVER ABOUT THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE RETURN MOISTURE ON SATURDAY, AND
IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THAT
MEANS, MUCH OF THE MID-STATE COULD EEK OUT ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY DAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT, AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN TN INTO WESTERN KY. ONE OF THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WITH PWS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.5" THE RAINS WE HAD EARLIER THIS WEEK
HAVE SATURATED THE GROUND PRETTY WELL. SO, ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
THAT OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING.

WE WILL HAVE A LOW CAPE/HIGH HELICITY ENVIRONMENT DURING THE
SAT/SUN EVENT, AND WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING JUST TO OUR WEST,
WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT TO SEE IF ANY OF THE CONVECTION IS
ABLE TO TAP THAT MINIMAL CAPE AND PRODUCE ANY STRONG-TO-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SWATH OF LOW LEVEL HELICITIES AROUND 300 M2/S2
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA BTWN 09Z AND 13Z EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT
AS OF NOW, SPC HAS THE MID-STATE ONLY IN A GENERAL TSTM AREA
THROUGH 12Z SUN. MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE STORMS WOULD PROBABLY BE OVER OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES DURING A RELATIVELY BRIEF WINDOW BETWEEN 11Z AND
15Z, WHEN THE RISING SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO KICK UP THE CAPES JUST
A BIT. IF HELICITIES REACH FORECAST VALUES, IT WOULDN`T BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION TO SEE A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES TRY TO SPIN UP. HOWEVER,
ON THE OTHER HAND, WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY,
SFC-BASED CAPES MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE AND TAP.

A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, AND WILL LIKELY
BE ATTENDED BY A SQUALL LINE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS US IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS BTWN 12Z/19 AND 12Z/20 AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THOSE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS, GUSTY
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS, AND HAIL.

WE FINALLY GET TO SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER NEXT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA
AND GIVES US A FEW CHILLY MORNINGS, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
MEANWHILE, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD, AND AVERAGE BETWEEN
65 AND 70 DEGREES EACH DAY.

LONG TERM...WE MAY SEE A WARM FRONT LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AND THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WELL.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 180228 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
928 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE MENTION OF LIGHT EVENING SHWRS FOR TONIGHT FROM
THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 645 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP...WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK (12Z)
SATURDAY...AND POSSIBLY SOME LIFR. EXACT VSBYS/CIGS ARE HARD TO
DETERMINE AT THIS TIME...SO EXPECT SEVERAL AMENDMENTS THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS THE AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AGAIN BY 18/16Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...MAINLY FROM THE ENE.

13

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 631 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS BASED ON CURRENT SFC
OBS...SATELLITE...AND REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...ALONG WITH CONSENSUS
OF SHORT RANGE MODELS...IN SHOWING SOME LINGERING SHWRS THRU THE MID
EVENING HRS ACROSS LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE TN/AL BORDER AND THE
SRN HALF OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION. BELIEVE THE MID STATE
WILL REMAIN DRY REMINDER OF TONIGHT. WILL EXTEND AREAS FOG THRU MID
MORNING HRS.

31

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 318 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY MILD ACROSS THE
MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH 2 PM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE, SCOOTING TO
OUR SOUTH, ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA, WAS PRODUCING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTREME SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID-STATE AND
THOSE COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL. IN FACT,
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POP UP AS
FAR NORTH AS CSV THIS EVENING.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA LATE THIS EVENING, BELIEVE
AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ENSUE OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG.  ANY FOG THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO LIFT AND FORM A LOW OVC CIG.
HOWEVER, IT`S POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE, ESPECIALLY OVER ABOUT THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE RETURN MOISTURE ON SATURDAY, AND
IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THAT
MEANS, MUCH OF THE MID-STATE COULD EEK OUT ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY DAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT, AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN TN INTO WESTERN KY. ONE OF THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WITH PWS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.5" THE RAINS WE HAD EARLIER THIS WEEK
HAVE SATURATED THE GROUND PRETTY WELL. SO, ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
THAT OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING.

WE WILL HAVE A LOW CAPE/HIGH HELICITY ENVIRONMENT DURING THE
SAT/SUN EVENT, AND WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING JUST TO OUR WEST,
WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT TO SEE IF ANY OF THE CONVECTION IS
ABLE TO TAP THAT MINIMAL CAPE AND PRODUCE ANY STRONG-TO-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SWATH OF LOW LEVEL HELICITIES AROUND 300 M2/S2
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA BTWN 09Z AND 13Z EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT
AS OF NOW, SPC HAS THE MID-STATE ONLY IN A GENERAL TSTM AREA
THROUGH 12Z SUN. MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE STORMS WOULD PROBABLY BE OVER OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES DURING A RELATIVELY BRIEF WINDOW BETWEEN 11Z AND
15Z, WHEN THE RISING SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO KICK UP THE CAPES JUST
A BIT. IF HELICITIES REACH FORECAST VALUES, IT WOULDN`T BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION TO SEE A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES TRY TO SPIN UP. HOWEVER,
ON THE OTHER HAND, WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY,
SFC-BASED CAPES MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE AND TAP.

A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, AND WILL LIKELY
BE ATTENDED BY A SQUALL LINE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS US IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS BTWN 12Z/19 AND 12Z/20 AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THOSE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS, GUSTY
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS, AND HAIL.

WE FINALLY GET TO SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER NEXT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA
AND GIVES US A FEW CHILLY MORNINGS, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
MEANWHILE, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD, AND AVERAGE BETWEEN
65 AND 70 DEGREES EACH DAY.

LONG TERM...WE MAY SEE A WARM FRONT LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AND THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WELL.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KMRX 180135 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
935 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. IR SATELLITE
SEEMS TO INDICATE A WEAK MCV FEATURE WHICH MAY KEEP THINGS GOING
THROUGH 06Z ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAIN
ZONES...THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SW NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...
VERY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO
WANE. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN NOTED AS
WELL...WHICH MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA BY THE PREDAWN HOURS. GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS...LIGHT WINDS...AND SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...PATCHY FOG
SEEMS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE
FAIRLY MILD...IN THE UPPER 50S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             57  78  63  74 /  20  30  90  90
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  58  78  60  73 /  10  20  90  90
OAK RIDGE, TN                       58  79  60  73 /  10  20  90  90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              55  78  54  69 /  10  10  60  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP



000
FXUS64 KMRX 180135 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
935 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. IR SATELLITE
SEEMS TO INDICATE A WEAK MCV FEATURE WHICH MAY KEEP THINGS GOING
THROUGH 06Z ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAIN
ZONES...THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SW NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...
VERY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO
WANE. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN NOTED AS
WELL...WHICH MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA BY THE PREDAWN HOURS. GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS...LIGHT WINDS...AND SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...PATCHY FOG
SEEMS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE
FAIRLY MILD...IN THE UPPER 50S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             57  78  63  74 /  20  30  90  90
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  58  78  60  73 /  10  20  90  90
OAK RIDGE, TN                       58  79  60  73 /  10  20  90  90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              55  78  54  69 /  10  10  60  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP



000
FXUS64 KMRX 180135 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
935 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. IR SATELLITE
SEEMS TO INDICATE A WEAK MCV FEATURE WHICH MAY KEEP THINGS GOING
THROUGH 06Z ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAIN
ZONES...THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SW NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...
VERY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO
WANE. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN NOTED AS
WELL...WHICH MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA BY THE PREDAWN HOURS. GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS...LIGHT WINDS...AND SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...PATCHY FOG
SEEMS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE
FAIRLY MILD...IN THE UPPER 50S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             57  78  63  74 /  20  30  90  90
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  58  78  60  73 /  10  20  90  90
OAK RIDGE, TN                       58  79  60  73 /  10  20  90  90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              55  78  54  69 /  10  10  60  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP



000
FXUS64 KMRX 180135 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
935 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. IR SATELLITE
SEEMS TO INDICATE A WEAK MCV FEATURE WHICH MAY KEEP THINGS GOING
THROUGH 06Z ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAIN
ZONES...THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SW NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...
VERY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO
WANE. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN NOTED AS
WELL...WHICH MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA BY THE PREDAWN HOURS. GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS...LIGHT WINDS...AND SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...PATCHY FOG
SEEMS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE
FAIRLY MILD...IN THE UPPER 50S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             57  78  63  74 /  20  30  90  90
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  58  78  60  73 /  10  20  90  90
OAK RIDGE, TN                       58  79  60  73 /  10  20  90  90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              55  78  54  69 /  10  10  60  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP



000
FXUS64 KMRX 180135 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
935 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. IR SATELLITE
SEEMS TO INDICATE A WEAK MCV FEATURE WHICH MAY KEEP THINGS GOING
THROUGH 06Z ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAIN
ZONES...THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SW NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...
VERY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO
WANE. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN NOTED AS
WELL...WHICH MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA BY THE PREDAWN HOURS. GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS...LIGHT WINDS...AND SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...PATCHY FOG
SEEMS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE
FAIRLY MILD...IN THE UPPER 50S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             57  78  63  74 /  20  30  90  90
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  58  78  60  73 /  10  20  90  90
OAK RIDGE, TN                       58  79  60  73 /  10  20  90  90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              55  78  54  69 /  10  10  60  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP



000
FXUS64 KMEG 180015
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
715 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE LARGE
AREA OF RAIN THAT WAS SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
IS FALLING APART AND NEVER MADE MUCH PROGRESS INTO WEST TENNESSEE.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT BY EARLY EVENING AND SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO NORTH MISSISSIPPI. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT SOME
TONIGHT BUT WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUDS SOME AREAS OF FOG MAY
DEVELOP AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ON SATURDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG
THE GULF COAST WILL START LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AS IT
GETS CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN STARTING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

BY SUNDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE MAY BE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY
OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS.

BY MONDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN
ENDING MONDAY MORNING OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH. AS A RESULT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND NEXT FRIDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BREAKUP AND SHOULD DISSIPATE SOON AT KMKL
AND KTUP. EXPECT VFR CONDS THROUGH THE EVENING THEN FOG AND
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18/05Z WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG. IFR TO
POSSIBLY VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FOG AND STRATUS LIFTING
AROUND MID-MORNING SATURDAY BECOMING VFR. TSRA CHANCES BEGIN TO
INCREASE BY MID-AFTERNOON AND HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS AT ALL SITES.

LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 180015
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
715 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE LARGE
AREA OF RAIN THAT WAS SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
IS FALLING APART AND NEVER MADE MUCH PROGRESS INTO WEST TENNESSEE.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT BY EARLY EVENING AND SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO NORTH MISSISSIPPI. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT SOME
TONIGHT BUT WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUDS SOME AREAS OF FOG MAY
DEVELOP AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ON SATURDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG
THE GULF COAST WILL START LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AS IT
GETS CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN STARTING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

BY SUNDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE MAY BE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY
OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS.

BY MONDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN
ENDING MONDAY MORNING OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH. AS A RESULT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND NEXT FRIDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BREAKUP AND SHOULD DISSIPATE SOON AT KMKL
AND KTUP. EXPECT VFR CONDS THROUGH THE EVENING THEN FOG AND
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18/05Z WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG. IFR TO
POSSIBLY VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FOG AND STRATUS LIFTING
AROUND MID-MORNING SATURDAY BECOMING VFR. TSRA CHANCES BEGIN TO
INCREASE BY MID-AFTERNOON AND HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS AT ALL SITES.

LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 172347 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
645 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP...WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK (12Z)
SATURDAY...AND POSSIBLY SOME LIFR. EXACT VSBYS/CIGS ARE HARD TO
DETERMINE AT THIS TIME...SO EXPECT SEVERAL AMENDMENTS THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS THE AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AGAIN BY 18/16Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...MAINLY FROM THE ENE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 631 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS BASED ON CURRENT SFC
OBS...SATELLITE...AND REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...ALONG WITH CONSENSUS
OF SHORT RANGE MODELS...IN SHOWING SOME LINGERING SHWRS THRU THE MID
EVENING HRS ACROSS LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE TN/AL BORDER AND THE
SRN HALF OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION. BELIEVE THE MID STATE
WILL REMAIN DRY REMINDER OF TONIGHT. WILL EXTEND AREAS FOG THRU MID
MORNING HRS.

31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 318 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY MILD ACROSS THE
MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH 2 PM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE, SCOOTING TO
OUR SOUTH, ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA, WAS PRODUCING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTREME SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID-STATE AND
THOSE COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL. IN FACT,
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POP UP AS
FAR NORTH AS CSV THIS EVENING.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA LATE THIS EVENING, BELIEVE
AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ENSUE OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG.  ANY FOG THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO LIFT AND FORM A LOW OVC CIG.
HOWEVER, IT`S POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE, ESPECIALLY OVER ABOUT THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE RETURN MOISTURE ON SATURDAY, AND
IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THAT
MEANS, MUCH OF THE MID-STATE COULD EEK OUT ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY DAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT, AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN TN INTO WESTERN KY. ONE OF THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WITH PWS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.5" THE RAINS WE HAD EARLIER THIS WEEK
HAVE SATURATED THE GROUND PRETTY WELL. SO, ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
THAT OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING.

WE WILL HAVE A LOW CAPE/HIGH HELICITY ENVIRONMENT DURING THE
SAT/SUN EVENT, AND WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING JUST TO OUR WEST,
WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT TO SEE IF ANY OF THE CONVECTION IS
ABLE TO TAP THAT MINIMAL CAPE AND PRODUCE ANY STRONG-TO-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SWATH OF LOW LEVEL HELICITIES AROUND 300 M2/S2
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA BTWN 09Z AND 13Z EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT
AS OF NOW, SPC HAS THE MID-STATE ONLY IN A GENERAL TSTM AREA
THROUGH 12Z SUN. MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE STORMS WOULD PROBABLY BE OVER OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES DURING A RELATIVELY BRIEF WINDOW BETWEEN 11Z AND
15Z, WHEN THE RISING SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO KICK UP THE CAPES JUST
A BIT. IF HELICITIES REACH FORECAST VALUES, IT WOULDN`T BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION TO SEE A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES TRY TO SPIN UP. HOWEVER,
ON THE OTHER HAND, WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY,
SFC-BASED CAPES MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE AND TAP.

A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, AND WILL LIKELY
BE ATTENDED BY A SQUALL LINE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS US IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS BTWN 12Z/19 AND 12Z/20 AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THOSE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS, GUSTY
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS, AND HAIL.

WE FINALLY GET TO SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER NEXT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA
AND GIVES US A FEW CHILLY MORNINGS, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
MEANWHILE, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD, AND AVERAGE BETWEEN
65 AND 70 DEGREES EACH DAY.

LONG TERM...WE MAY SEE A WARM FRONT LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AND THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WELL.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KOHX 172347 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
645 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP...WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK (12Z)
SATURDAY...AND POSSIBLY SOME LIFR. EXACT VSBYS/CIGS ARE HARD TO
DETERMINE AT THIS TIME...SO EXPECT SEVERAL AMENDMENTS THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS THE AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AGAIN BY 18/16Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...MAINLY FROM THE ENE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 631 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS BASED ON CURRENT SFC
OBS...SATELLITE...AND REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...ALONG WITH CONSENSUS
OF SHORT RANGE MODELS...IN SHOWING SOME LINGERING SHWRS THRU THE MID
EVENING HRS ACROSS LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE TN/AL BORDER AND THE
SRN HALF OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION. BELIEVE THE MID STATE
WILL REMAIN DRY REMINDER OF TONIGHT. WILL EXTEND AREAS FOG THRU MID
MORNING HRS.

31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 318 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY MILD ACROSS THE
MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH 2 PM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE, SCOOTING TO
OUR SOUTH, ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA, WAS PRODUCING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTREME SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID-STATE AND
THOSE COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL. IN FACT,
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POP UP AS
FAR NORTH AS CSV THIS EVENING.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA LATE THIS EVENING, BELIEVE
AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ENSUE OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG.  ANY FOG THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO LIFT AND FORM A LOW OVC CIG.
HOWEVER, IT`S POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE, ESPECIALLY OVER ABOUT THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE RETURN MOISTURE ON SATURDAY, AND
IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THAT
MEANS, MUCH OF THE MID-STATE COULD EEK OUT ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY DAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT, AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN TN INTO WESTERN KY. ONE OF THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WITH PWS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.5" THE RAINS WE HAD EARLIER THIS WEEK
HAVE SATURATED THE GROUND PRETTY WELL. SO, ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
THAT OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING.

WE WILL HAVE A LOW CAPE/HIGH HELICITY ENVIRONMENT DURING THE
SAT/SUN EVENT, AND WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING JUST TO OUR WEST,
WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT TO SEE IF ANY OF THE CONVECTION IS
ABLE TO TAP THAT MINIMAL CAPE AND PRODUCE ANY STRONG-TO-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SWATH OF LOW LEVEL HELICITIES AROUND 300 M2/S2
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA BTWN 09Z AND 13Z EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT
AS OF NOW, SPC HAS THE MID-STATE ONLY IN A GENERAL TSTM AREA
THROUGH 12Z SUN. MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE STORMS WOULD PROBABLY BE OVER OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES DURING A RELATIVELY BRIEF WINDOW BETWEEN 11Z AND
15Z, WHEN THE RISING SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO KICK UP THE CAPES JUST
A BIT. IF HELICITIES REACH FORECAST VALUES, IT WOULDN`T BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION TO SEE A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES TRY TO SPIN UP. HOWEVER,
ON THE OTHER HAND, WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY,
SFC-BASED CAPES MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE AND TAP.

A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, AND WILL LIKELY
BE ATTENDED BY A SQUALL LINE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS US IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS BTWN 12Z/19 AND 12Z/20 AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THOSE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS, GUSTY
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS, AND HAIL.

WE FINALLY GET TO SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER NEXT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA
AND GIVES US A FEW CHILLY MORNINGS, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
MEANWHILE, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD, AND AVERAGE BETWEEN
65 AND 70 DEGREES EACH DAY.

LONG TERM...WE MAY SEE A WARM FRONT LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AND THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WELL.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KOHX 172347 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
645 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP...WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK (12Z)
SATURDAY...AND POSSIBLY SOME LIFR. EXACT VSBYS/CIGS ARE HARD TO
DETERMINE AT THIS TIME...SO EXPECT SEVERAL AMENDMENTS THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS THE AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AGAIN BY 18/16Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...MAINLY FROM THE ENE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 631 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS BASED ON CURRENT SFC
OBS...SATELLITE...AND REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...ALONG WITH CONSENSUS
OF SHORT RANGE MODELS...IN SHOWING SOME LINGERING SHWRS THRU THE MID
EVENING HRS ACROSS LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE TN/AL BORDER AND THE
SRN HALF OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION. BELIEVE THE MID STATE
WILL REMAIN DRY REMINDER OF TONIGHT. WILL EXTEND AREAS FOG THRU MID
MORNING HRS.

31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 318 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY MILD ACROSS THE
MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH 2 PM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE, SCOOTING TO
OUR SOUTH, ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA, WAS PRODUCING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTREME SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID-STATE AND
THOSE COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL. IN FACT,
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POP UP AS
FAR NORTH AS CSV THIS EVENING.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA LATE THIS EVENING, BELIEVE
AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ENSUE OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG.  ANY FOG THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO LIFT AND FORM A LOW OVC CIG.
HOWEVER, IT`S POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE, ESPECIALLY OVER ABOUT THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE RETURN MOISTURE ON SATURDAY, AND
IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THAT
MEANS, MUCH OF THE MID-STATE COULD EEK OUT ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY DAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT, AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN TN INTO WESTERN KY. ONE OF THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WITH PWS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.5" THE RAINS WE HAD EARLIER THIS WEEK
HAVE SATURATED THE GROUND PRETTY WELL. SO, ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
THAT OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING.

WE WILL HAVE A LOW CAPE/HIGH HELICITY ENVIRONMENT DURING THE
SAT/SUN EVENT, AND WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING JUST TO OUR WEST,
WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT TO SEE IF ANY OF THE CONVECTION IS
ABLE TO TAP THAT MINIMAL CAPE AND PRODUCE ANY STRONG-TO-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SWATH OF LOW LEVEL HELICITIES AROUND 300 M2/S2
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA BTWN 09Z AND 13Z EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT
AS OF NOW, SPC HAS THE MID-STATE ONLY IN A GENERAL TSTM AREA
THROUGH 12Z SUN. MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE STORMS WOULD PROBABLY BE OVER OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES DURING A RELATIVELY BRIEF WINDOW BETWEEN 11Z AND
15Z, WHEN THE RISING SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO KICK UP THE CAPES JUST
A BIT. IF HELICITIES REACH FORECAST VALUES, IT WOULDN`T BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION TO SEE A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES TRY TO SPIN UP. HOWEVER,
ON THE OTHER HAND, WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY,
SFC-BASED CAPES MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE AND TAP.

A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, AND WILL LIKELY
BE ATTENDED BY A SQUALL LINE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS US IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS BTWN 12Z/19 AND 12Z/20 AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THOSE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS, GUSTY
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS, AND HAIL.

WE FINALLY GET TO SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER NEXT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA
AND GIVES US A FEW CHILLY MORNINGS, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
MEANWHILE, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD, AND AVERAGE BETWEEN
65 AND 70 DEGREES EACH DAY.

LONG TERM...WE MAY SEE A WARM FRONT LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AND THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WELL.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KOHX 172347 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
645 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP...WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK (12Z)
SATURDAY...AND POSSIBLY SOME LIFR. EXACT VSBYS/CIGS ARE HARD TO
DETERMINE AT THIS TIME...SO EXPECT SEVERAL AMENDMENTS THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS THE AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AGAIN BY 18/16Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...MAINLY FROM THE ENE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 631 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS BASED ON CURRENT SFC
OBS...SATELLITE...AND REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...ALONG WITH CONSENSUS
OF SHORT RANGE MODELS...IN SHOWING SOME LINGERING SHWRS THRU THE MID
EVENING HRS ACROSS LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE TN/AL BORDER AND THE
SRN HALF OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION. BELIEVE THE MID STATE
WILL REMAIN DRY REMINDER OF TONIGHT. WILL EXTEND AREAS FOG THRU MID
MORNING HRS.

31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 318 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY MILD ACROSS THE
MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH 2 PM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE, SCOOTING TO
OUR SOUTH, ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA, WAS PRODUCING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTREME SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID-STATE AND
THOSE COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL. IN FACT,
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POP UP AS
FAR NORTH AS CSV THIS EVENING.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA LATE THIS EVENING, BELIEVE
AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ENSUE OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG.  ANY FOG THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO LIFT AND FORM A LOW OVC CIG.
HOWEVER, IT`S POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE, ESPECIALLY OVER ABOUT THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE RETURN MOISTURE ON SATURDAY, AND
IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THAT
MEANS, MUCH OF THE MID-STATE COULD EEK OUT ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY DAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT, AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN TN INTO WESTERN KY. ONE OF THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WITH PWS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.5" THE RAINS WE HAD EARLIER THIS WEEK
HAVE SATURATED THE GROUND PRETTY WELL. SO, ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
THAT OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING.

WE WILL HAVE A LOW CAPE/HIGH HELICITY ENVIRONMENT DURING THE
SAT/SUN EVENT, AND WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING JUST TO OUR WEST,
WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT TO SEE IF ANY OF THE CONVECTION IS
ABLE TO TAP THAT MINIMAL CAPE AND PRODUCE ANY STRONG-TO-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SWATH OF LOW LEVEL HELICITIES AROUND 300 M2/S2
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA BTWN 09Z AND 13Z EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT
AS OF NOW, SPC HAS THE MID-STATE ONLY IN A GENERAL TSTM AREA
THROUGH 12Z SUN. MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE STORMS WOULD PROBABLY BE OVER OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES DURING A RELATIVELY BRIEF WINDOW BETWEEN 11Z AND
15Z, WHEN THE RISING SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO KICK UP THE CAPES JUST
A BIT. IF HELICITIES REACH FORECAST VALUES, IT WOULDN`T BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION TO SEE A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES TRY TO SPIN UP. HOWEVER,
ON THE OTHER HAND, WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY,
SFC-BASED CAPES MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE AND TAP.

A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, AND WILL LIKELY
BE ATTENDED BY A SQUALL LINE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS US IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS BTWN 12Z/19 AND 12Z/20 AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THOSE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS, GUSTY
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS, AND HAIL.

WE FINALLY GET TO SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER NEXT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA
AND GIVES US A FEW CHILLY MORNINGS, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
MEANWHILE, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD, AND AVERAGE BETWEEN
65 AND 70 DEGREES EACH DAY.

LONG TERM...WE MAY SEE A WARM FRONT LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AND THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WELL.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KOHX 172331 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
631 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS BASED ON CURRENT SFC OBS...
SATELLITE...AND REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...ALONG WITH CONSENSUS OF SHORT
RANGE MODELS...IN SHOWING SOME LINGERING SHWRS THRU THE MID EVENING
HRS ACROSS LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE TN/AL BORDER AND THE SRN HALF OF
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION. BELIEVE THE MID STATE WILL REMAIN
DRY REMINDER OF TONIGHT. WILL EXTEND AREAS FOG THRU MID MORNING HRS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 318 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY MILD ACROSS THE
MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH 2 PM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE, SCOOTING TO
OUR SOUTH, ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA, WAS PRODUCING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTREME SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID-STATE AND
THOSE COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL. IN FACT,
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POP UP AS
FAR NORTH AS CSV THIS EVENING.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA LATE THIS EVENING, BELIEVE
AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ENSUE OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG.  ANY FOG THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO LIFT AND FORM A LOW OVC CIG.
HOWEVER, IT`S POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE, ESPECIALLY OVER ABOUT THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE RETURN MOISTURE ON SATURDAY, AND
IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THAT
MEANS, MUCH OF THE MID-STATE COULD EEK OUT ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY DAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT, AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN TN INTO WESTERN KY. ONE OF THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WITH PWS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.5" THE RAINS WE HAD EARLIER THIS WEEK
HAVE SATURATED THE GROUND PRETTY WELL. SO, ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
THAT OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING.

WE WILL HAVE A LOW CAPE/HIGH HELICITY ENVIRONMENT DURING THE
SAT/SUN EVENT, AND WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING JUST TO OUR WEST,
WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT TO SEE IF ANY OF THE CONVECTION IS
ABLE TO TAP THAT MINIMAL CAPE AND PRODUCE ANY STRONG-TO-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SWATH OF LOW LEVEL HELICITIES AROUND 300 M2/S2
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA BTWN 09Z AND 13Z EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT
AS OF NOW, SPC HAS THE MID-STATE ONLY IN A GENERAL TSTM AREA
THROUGH 12Z SUN. MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE STORMS WOULD PROBABLY BE OVER OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES DURING A RELATIVELY BRIEF WINDOW BETWEEN 11Z AND
15Z, WHEN THE RISING SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO KICK UP THE CAPES JUST
A BIT. IF HELICITIES REACH FORECAST VALUES, IT WOULDN`T BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION TO SEE A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES TRY TO SPIN UP. HOWEVER,
ON THE OTHER HAND, WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY,
SFC-BASED CAPES MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE AND TAP.

A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, AND WILL LIKELY
BE ATTENDED BY A SQUALL LINE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS US IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS BTWN 12Z/19 AND 12Z/20 AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THOSE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS, GUSTY
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS, AND HAIL.

WE FINALLY GET TO SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER NEXT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA
AND GIVES US A FEW CHILLY MORNINGS, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
MEANWHILE, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD, AND AVERAGE BETWEEN
65 AND 70 DEGREES EACH DAY.

LONG TERM...WE MAY SEE A WARM FRONT LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AND THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WELL.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 172331 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
631 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS BASED ON CURRENT SFC OBS...
SATELLITE...AND REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...ALONG WITH CONSENSUS OF SHORT
RANGE MODELS...IN SHOWING SOME LINGERING SHWRS THRU THE MID EVENING
HRS ACROSS LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE TN/AL BORDER AND THE SRN HALF OF
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION. BELIEVE THE MID STATE WILL REMAIN
DRY REMINDER OF TONIGHT. WILL EXTEND AREAS FOG THRU MID MORNING HRS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 318 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY MILD ACROSS THE
MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH 2 PM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE, SCOOTING TO
OUR SOUTH, ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA, WAS PRODUCING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTREME SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID-STATE AND
THOSE COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL. IN FACT,
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POP UP AS
FAR NORTH AS CSV THIS EVENING.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA LATE THIS EVENING, BELIEVE
AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ENSUE OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG.  ANY FOG THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO LIFT AND FORM A LOW OVC CIG.
HOWEVER, IT`S POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE, ESPECIALLY OVER ABOUT THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE RETURN MOISTURE ON SATURDAY, AND
IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THAT
MEANS, MUCH OF THE MID-STATE COULD EEK OUT ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY DAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT, AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN TN INTO WESTERN KY. ONE OF THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WITH PWS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.5" THE RAINS WE HAD EARLIER THIS WEEK
HAVE SATURATED THE GROUND PRETTY WELL. SO, ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
THAT OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING.

WE WILL HAVE A LOW CAPE/HIGH HELICITY ENVIRONMENT DURING THE
SAT/SUN EVENT, AND WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING JUST TO OUR WEST,
WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT TO SEE IF ANY OF THE CONVECTION IS
ABLE TO TAP THAT MINIMAL CAPE AND PRODUCE ANY STRONG-TO-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SWATH OF LOW LEVEL HELICITIES AROUND 300 M2/S2
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA BTWN 09Z AND 13Z EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT
AS OF NOW, SPC HAS THE MID-STATE ONLY IN A GENERAL TSTM AREA
THROUGH 12Z SUN. MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE STORMS WOULD PROBABLY BE OVER OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES DURING A RELATIVELY BRIEF WINDOW BETWEEN 11Z AND
15Z, WHEN THE RISING SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO KICK UP THE CAPES JUST
A BIT. IF HELICITIES REACH FORECAST VALUES, IT WOULDN`T BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION TO SEE A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES TRY TO SPIN UP. HOWEVER,
ON THE OTHER HAND, WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY,
SFC-BASED CAPES MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE AND TAP.

A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, AND WILL LIKELY
BE ATTENDED BY A SQUALL LINE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS US IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS BTWN 12Z/19 AND 12Z/20 AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THOSE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS, GUSTY
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS, AND HAIL.

WE FINALLY GET TO SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER NEXT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA
AND GIVES US A FEW CHILLY MORNINGS, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
MEANWHILE, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD, AND AVERAGE BETWEEN
65 AND 70 DEGREES EACH DAY.

LONG TERM...WE MAY SEE A WARM FRONT LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AND THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WELL.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KMRX 172331
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
731 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS CHA AND TYS IS BEING
PRODUCED BY SHORT-WAVE AND UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY 02Z. PLENTY OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WITH IFR CONDITIONS REMAINING AT CHA AND
DEVELOPING AT TYS AND TRI AROUND 09Z. LOW-CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
DISSIPATE AROUND 14-15Z SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT BEST CHANCE AT CHA.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 172331 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
631 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS BASED ON CURRENT SFC OBS...
SATELLITE...AND REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...ALONG WITH CONSENSUS OF SHORT
RANGE MODELS...IN SHOWING SOME LINGERING SHWRS THRU THE MID EVENING
HRS ACROSS LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE TN/AL BORDER AND THE SRN HALF OF
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION. BELIEVE THE MID STATE WILL REMAIN
DRY REMINDER OF TONIGHT. WILL EXTEND AREAS FOG THRU MID MORNING HRS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 318 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY MILD ACROSS THE
MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH 2 PM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE, SCOOTING TO
OUR SOUTH, ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA, WAS PRODUCING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTREME SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID-STATE AND
THOSE COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL. IN FACT,
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POP UP AS
FAR NORTH AS CSV THIS EVENING.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA LATE THIS EVENING, BELIEVE
AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ENSUE OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG.  ANY FOG THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO LIFT AND FORM A LOW OVC CIG.
HOWEVER, IT`S POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE, ESPECIALLY OVER ABOUT THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE RETURN MOISTURE ON SATURDAY, AND
IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THAT
MEANS, MUCH OF THE MID-STATE COULD EEK OUT ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY DAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT, AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN TN INTO WESTERN KY. ONE OF THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WITH PWS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.5" THE RAINS WE HAD EARLIER THIS WEEK
HAVE SATURATED THE GROUND PRETTY WELL. SO, ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
THAT OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING.

WE WILL HAVE A LOW CAPE/HIGH HELICITY ENVIRONMENT DURING THE
SAT/SUN EVENT, AND WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING JUST TO OUR WEST,
WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT TO SEE IF ANY OF THE CONVECTION IS
ABLE TO TAP THAT MINIMAL CAPE AND PRODUCE ANY STRONG-TO-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SWATH OF LOW LEVEL HELICITIES AROUND 300 M2/S2
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA BTWN 09Z AND 13Z EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT
AS OF NOW, SPC HAS THE MID-STATE ONLY IN A GENERAL TSTM AREA
THROUGH 12Z SUN. MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE STORMS WOULD PROBABLY BE OVER OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES DURING A RELATIVELY BRIEF WINDOW BETWEEN 11Z AND
15Z, WHEN THE RISING SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO KICK UP THE CAPES JUST
A BIT. IF HELICITIES REACH FORECAST VALUES, IT WOULDN`T BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION TO SEE A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES TRY TO SPIN UP. HOWEVER,
ON THE OTHER HAND, WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY,
SFC-BASED CAPES MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE AND TAP.

A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, AND WILL LIKELY
BE ATTENDED BY A SQUALL LINE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS US IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS BTWN 12Z/19 AND 12Z/20 AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THOSE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS, GUSTY
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS, AND HAIL.

WE FINALLY GET TO SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER NEXT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA
AND GIVES US A FEW CHILLY MORNINGS, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
MEANWHILE, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD, AND AVERAGE BETWEEN
65 AND 70 DEGREES EACH DAY.

LONG TERM...WE MAY SEE A WARM FRONT LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AND THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WELL.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KMRX 172331
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
731 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS CHA AND TYS IS BEING
PRODUCED BY SHORT-WAVE AND UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY 02Z. PLENTY OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WITH IFR CONDITIONS REMAINING AT CHA AND
DEVELOPING AT TYS AND TRI AROUND 09Z. LOW-CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
DISSIPATE AROUND 14-15Z SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT BEST CHANCE AT CHA.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$



    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities