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000
FXUS64 KMRX 061107
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
707 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.AVIATION...
BROKEN CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN AROUND THE TRI AREA AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY
N-NW WINDS TO AROUND 20 KTS. CLEARING AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO COME AROUND SUNSET WITH STABILIZATION AND A WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 060809
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
409 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
THE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTERLY DRIFT TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING INTO TN
FROM THE WEST. MIDLEVEL TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL TODAY OVER
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL KEEP BROKEN CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE GFS AND SREF ARE MORE BULLISH ON PRECIP THAN
THE NAM TODAY...BUT THEIR PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER A TENTH ARE LIKELY TOO
MUCH GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE IN THE N-NW FLOW. WILL
HAVE POPS TODAY JUST FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF KNOXVILLE...AND GO
CLOSER TO THE NAM FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. A DEEP MIXED
LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
STABILIZATION AFTER SUNSET SHOULD END ANY REMAINING SHOWERS BY
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HELPED BRING THE COLD WEATHER WILL BE SPINNING
ITS WAY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM PRETTY QUICKLY IN RESPONSE. THEN AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER OUR AREA LEADING TO NEARLY
CONTINUOUS RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. HELPING KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND WILL BE A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WHICH WILL LIKELY
STALL SOMEWHERE JUST NORTH OF THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER AND
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY LEADING TO
NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR RAIN. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WE
WILL SEE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA TO ALLOW
FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING MOST OF THIS UNSETTLED PERIOD NEXT WEEK.
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN WHEN/WHERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS FAR OUT AS
CONVECTION FROM ONE DAY WILL LIKELY AFFECT CONVECTION THE NEXT DAY.
SOME OF THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY COME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.

LOW LEVEL WINDS MOSTLY COMING OUT OF THE SOUTH AND WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             72  48  81  59 /   0   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  68  48  79  58 /  10   0  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       69  48  78  58 /  10   0  10  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              61  44  73  55 /  30  10  20  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/ABM



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000
FXUS64 KMEG 060804
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
304 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SOUTH TODAY WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A CONTINUATION
OF DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S FOR HIGHS TODAY...RISING INTO THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 50S AND 60S.

BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY LATER MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF A BIT MORE
ROBUST AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE AS COMPARED TO THE LATEST
00Z GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES. AT THIS POINT...THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO INCREASE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS MONDAY NIGHT OVER PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. DETAILS REGARDING SPECIFICS WILL NEED TO BE WORKED
OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT PLAN TO AT LEAST ADD MENTION
OF A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO
END OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES INTERACT
WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. NEARLY DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS AND MODULATED ONLY BY CONVECTIVE OCCURRENCE.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTH WINDS HAVE
REMAINED AROUND 8-10 KTS AT KMEM AND KTUP. THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE KJBR/KMKL SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. AFTER 15Z...KJBR AND KMKL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
7-10 KTS AS WELL. AFTER 01Z...EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT
ALL TAF SITES.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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000
FXUS64 KOHX 060801
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
301 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET AND COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH CURRENT TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S. CAA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY...BUT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET
INTO THE LOW 70S. MODELS ARE SHOWING 850MB TEMPS FROM 0C-4C OVER
THE AREA...SO WONT EXPECT ANY HELP WITH MIXING TO WARM UP TEMPS
MUCH MORE THAN THE LOW 70S. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AS WELL BEFORE
CALMING DOWN A BIT AND BECOMING MORE WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY BY
MIDNIGHT.

WITH THE UPPER CLOSED LOW MOVING EAST THEN NORTH ALONG THE
COAST...UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION. THIS WILL
HELP WARM UP TEMPS QUITE A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MOST OF THE
MID STATE SEEING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWED A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER RIDGE EARLY ON SUNDAY...WHICH LOOKED TO BRING PRECIP CHANCES
TO THE NORTH AND EAST. MODELS HAVE SINCE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE
SHORTWAVE AND THUS THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE MID STATE. KEPT IN
MENTION FOR THE NORTHEAST ZONES FOR NOW ON SUNDAY.

BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN ON
MONDAY...AND WILL BEGIN A SERIES OF TROUGHS THAT WILL IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT CHC POPS EXIST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK
WEEK. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A FEW
TIMES WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POSSIBILITIES. BUT WITH THE
UPPER LOWS TRACKING FURTHER NORTH AND THE BEST INGREDIENTS OFF TO
THE WEST...ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE DECENT INSTABILITY OVER THE MID STATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE 0-6KM SHEAR
STILL IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE. TUESDAY AFTERNOON HAS SOME STRONGER
SHEAR...SO WILL SEE IF THE LONG TERM MODELS KEEP THAT SOLUTION
GOING TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUD COVERAGE EROSION HAS OCCURRED QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AT CKV/BNA...AND WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT
BUILDING INTO MID STATE REGION...VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED CKV/BNA
THRU 07/06Z. AS FOR CSV...LINGERING MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST
SOME PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS...THRU 06/14Z...WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
BY 06/08Z AND IFR VSBYS BY 06/10Z. ANY LINGERING CLOUDINESS/FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 06/14Z...AND WITH ABOVE MENTIONED BUILDING RIDGING
INFLUENCES...VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT CSV THRU 07/06Z ALSO.
SFC WINDS THRU 07/06Z WILL BE GENERALLY NW/N 5-10KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      73  52  83  61  84 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    72  51  80  60  80 /   0   0   0  10  10
CROSSVILLE     66  48  76  59  79 /  10  10  10  10  10
COLUMBIA       72  50  80  60  82 /   0   0   0   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   72  49  81  59  83 /   0   0   0   0  10
WAVERLY        73  52  82  60  82 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......BARNWELL
AVIATION........31




000
FXUS64 KOHX 060801
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
301 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET AND COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH CURRENT TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S. CAA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY...BUT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET
INTO THE LOW 70S. MODELS ARE SHOWING 850MB TEMPS FROM 0C-4C OVER
THE AREA...SO WONT EXPECT ANY HELP WITH MIXING TO WARM UP TEMPS
MUCH MORE THAN THE LOW 70S. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AS WELL BEFORE
CALMING DOWN A BIT AND BECOMING MORE WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY BY
MIDNIGHT.

WITH THE UPPER CLOSED LOW MOVING EAST THEN NORTH ALONG THE
COAST...UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION. THIS WILL
HELP WARM UP TEMPS QUITE A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MOST OF THE
MID STATE SEEING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWED A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER RIDGE EARLY ON SUNDAY...WHICH LOOKED TO BRING PRECIP CHANCES
TO THE NORTH AND EAST. MODELS HAVE SINCE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE
SHORTWAVE AND THUS THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE MID STATE. KEPT IN
MENTION FOR THE NORTHEAST ZONES FOR NOW ON SUNDAY.

BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN ON
MONDAY...AND WILL BEGIN A SERIES OF TROUGHS THAT WILL IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT CHC POPS EXIST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK
WEEK. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A FEW
TIMES WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POSSIBILITIES. BUT WITH THE
UPPER LOWS TRACKING FURTHER NORTH AND THE BEST INGREDIENTS OFF TO
THE WEST...ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE DECENT INSTABILITY OVER THE MID STATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE 0-6KM SHEAR
STILL IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE. TUESDAY AFTERNOON HAS SOME STRONGER
SHEAR...SO WILL SEE IF THE LONG TERM MODELS KEEP THAT SOLUTION
GOING TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUD COVERAGE EROSION HAS OCCURRED QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AT CKV/BNA...AND WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT
BUILDING INTO MID STATE REGION...VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED CKV/BNA
THRU 07/06Z. AS FOR CSV...LINGERING MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST
SOME PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS...THRU 06/14Z...WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
BY 06/08Z AND IFR VSBYS BY 06/10Z. ANY LINGERING CLOUDINESS/FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 06/14Z...AND WITH ABOVE MENTIONED BUILDING RIDGING
INFLUENCES...VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT CSV THRU 07/06Z ALSO.
SFC WINDS THRU 07/06Z WILL BE GENERALLY NW/N 5-10KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      73  52  83  61  84 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    72  51  80  60  80 /   0   0   0  10  10
CROSSVILLE     66  48  76  59  79 /  10  10  10  10  10
COLUMBIA       72  50  80  60  82 /   0   0   0   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   72  49  81  59  83 /   0   0   0   0  10
WAVERLY        73  52  82  60  82 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......BARNWELL
AVIATION........31




000
FXUS64 KMRX 060519
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
119 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.AVIATION...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS POSITIONED OVER THE
CAROLINAS THIS EVENING...AND WILL BE DRIFTING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
THE COLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE LOW ARE CREATING BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MVFR CIGS AT TYS AND TRI...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND TRI. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO
VFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE AT ALL SITES. DAYTIME MIXING WILL CREATE
SOME NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS
DROPPING BELOW 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 060519
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
119 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.AVIATION...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS POSITIONED OVER THE
CAROLINAS THIS EVENING...AND WILL BE DRIFTING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
THE COLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE LOW ARE CREATING BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MVFR CIGS AT TYS AND TRI...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND TRI. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO
VFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE AT ALL SITES. DAYTIME MIXING WILL CREATE
SOME NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS
DROPPING BELOW 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMEG 060452
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1152 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

TEMPERATURES ARE WARM UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
70S AND WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 70S. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BECOMING ORIENTED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNDAY. AS
A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN WARMER. EXPECT HIGHS IN TE
MIDDLE 70S AGAIN TOMORROW AND IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S TOMORROW.
PROBABLY GOING TO WATER THE GARDEN TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY FOR
SEVERAL MORE DAYS. MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT HANDLE THESE PATTERNS
WELL...OFTEN TRYING TO BREAK THEM DOWN TOO QUICKLY. ALREADY SEEING
EVIDENCE THAT IS THE CASE WE ARE SEEING NOW. SEVERAL DAYS AGO AS
WE WERE WATCHING THIS PATTERN DEVELOP MODELS BEGAN TO BREAK THE
PATTERN DOWN FRIDAY...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME TO SEE IT HOLD ON
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MONDAY OR TUESDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH
RESULTING IN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES
INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH IN THEIR DAY 5 OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALOFT. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION
IN THE HWO YET...BUT IT IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTH WINDS HAVE
REMAINED AROUND 8-10 KTS AT KMEM AND KTUP. THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE KJBR/KMKL SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. AFTER 15Z...KJBR AND KMKL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
7-10 KTS AS WELL. AFTER 01Z...EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT
ALL TAF SITES.

KRM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 060437
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1137 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. A VERTICALLY
STACKED NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPING CONDITIONS ON THE COOL SIDE. CLOUD
COVER...ALSO NOTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND IS
KEEPING A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE MID STATE. THE TREND WILL BE FOR THESE CLOUDS TO DECREASE BUT
IT MAY TAKE A FEW HOURS BEFORE THAT REALLY HAPPENS. THUS...WILL
NOTCH UP THE INITIAL CLOUD COVER AND INTERPOLATE TOWARD A MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT. WILL THEN REISSUE ZONES. OTW...REMAINDER OF FCST IN
GOOD SHAPE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUD COVERAGE EROSION HAS OCCURRED QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AT CKV/BNA...AND WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT
BUILDING INTO MID STATE REGION...VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED CKV/BNA
THRU 07/06Z. AS FOR CSV...LINGERING MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST
SOME PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS...THRU 06/14Z...WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
BY 06/08Z AND IFR VSBYS BY 06/10Z. ANY LINGERING CLOUDINESS/FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 06/14Z...AND WITH ABOVE MENTIONED BUILDING RIDGING
INFLUENCES...VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT CSV THRU 07/06Z ALSO.
SFC WINDS THRU 07/06Z WILL BE GENERALLY NW/N 5-10KTS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........31
LONG TERM..................21




000
FXUS64 KMRX 060123
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
923 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOR TONIGHT GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK...WITH SOME SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHEAST AREAS AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
PRECIP EXPECTED TO EXHIBIT A DIMINISHING TREND OVERNIGHT. WILL
TWEAK POPS A BIT...AND WILL ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW POINTS AS
WELL AS SKY TO BETTER FIT CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATE OUT SOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             46  72  50  80 /  10   0  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  45  69  48  78 /  20  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       45  70  48  78 /  20   0  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              42  64  45  74 /  80  50  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 060009
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
709 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. A VERTICALLY
STACKED NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPING CONDITIONS ON THE COOL SIDE. CLOUD
COVER...ALSO NOTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND IS
KEEPING A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE MID STATE. THE TREND WILL BE FOR THESE CLOUDS TO DECREASE BUT
IT MAY TAKE A FEW HOURS BEFORE THAT REALLY HAPPENS. THUS...WILL
NOTCH UP THE INITIAL CLOUD COVER AND INTERPOLATE TOWARD A MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT. WILL THEN REISSUE ZONES. OTW...REMAINDER OF FCST IN
GOOD SHAPE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PER ABOVE MENTIONED DISCUSSION...LOOKING FOR A DECREASING CLOUDINESS
TREND TO COMMENCE...BUT IT MAY TAKE A FEW HRS BEFORE THAT REALLY HAPPENS.
DO EXPECT NW SFC GUSTS TO 18-20KTS TO DISSIPATE BNA BY AROUND 06/02Z
PER WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INFLUENCES ALONG DIURNAL MIXING
INFLUENCES ENDING. BREAKAGE IN BKN/OVC STRATO CU COVERAGE NOTED ACROSS
SRN OHIO VALLEY REGION...BUT AM HESITANT...ESPECIALLY WITH LATEST HRRR
LOW LEVEL ATM MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF BKN CLOUD COVERAGE NOT
DISSIPATING AT CKV UNTIL AROUND 06/10Z...BNA 06/12Z...AND CSV 06/15Z.
WILL LEAN TOWARD MORE PESSIMISTIC HRRR CLOUD COVERAGE EROSION TIMEAGE
PER PREVIOUS FORECAST HISTORY ACROSS MID STATE PER SIMILAR EVENTS...BUT
WOULD CERTAINLY NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CEILING EROSIONS AT ALL TERMINALS
OCCUR SOONER. IF EROSIONS OCCUR EARLY ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY CSV...SOME
MVFR/IFR FOG INDUCED VSBYS/SIMILAR LOW STRATUS CEILINGS COULD OCCUR PER
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING POTENTIAL BEING PRESENT ACROSS THIS
AREA OVER PAST 24+ HRS...ALONG WITH CLRING SKIES/LIGHT WINDS. ADDRESSED
POSSIBILITY WITH PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS/CEILINGS 06/08Z-06/15Z. OTHERWISE...
BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT TO PROVIDE VFR/SKC CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS 06/14Z-06/24Z WITH NW/N SFC WINDS 5-10KTS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........31
LONG TERM..................21




000
FXUS64 KOHX 060009
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
709 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. A VERTICALLY
STACKED NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPING CONDITIONS ON THE COOL SIDE. CLOUD
COVER...ALSO NOTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND IS
KEEPING A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE MID STATE. THE TREND WILL BE FOR THESE CLOUDS TO DECREASE BUT
IT MAY TAKE A FEW HOURS BEFORE THAT REALLY HAPPENS. THUS...WILL
NOTCH UP THE INITIAL CLOUD COVER AND INTERPOLATE TOWARD A MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT. WILL THEN REISSUE ZONES. OTW...REMAINDER OF FCST IN
GOOD SHAPE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PER ABOVE MENTIONED DISCUSSION...LOOKING FOR A DECREASING CLOUDINESS
TREND TO COMMENCE...BUT IT MAY TAKE A FEW HRS BEFORE THAT REALLY HAPPENS.
DO EXPECT NW SFC GUSTS TO 18-20KTS TO DISSIPATE BNA BY AROUND 06/02Z
PER WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INFLUENCES ALONG DIURNAL MIXING
INFLUENCES ENDING. BREAKAGE IN BKN/OVC STRATO CU COVERAGE NOTED ACROSS
SRN OHIO VALLEY REGION...BUT AM HESITANT...ESPECIALLY WITH LATEST HRRR
LOW LEVEL ATM MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF BKN CLOUD COVERAGE NOT
DISSIPATING AT CKV UNTIL AROUND 06/10Z...BNA 06/12Z...AND CSV 06/15Z.
WILL LEAN TOWARD MORE PESSIMISTIC HRRR CLOUD COVERAGE EROSION TIMEAGE
PER PREVIOUS FORECAST HISTORY ACROSS MID STATE PER SIMILAR EVENTS...BUT
WOULD CERTAINLY NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CEILING EROSIONS AT ALL TERMINALS
OCCUR SOONER. IF EROSIONS OCCUR EARLY ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY CSV...SOME
MVFR/IFR FOG INDUCED VSBYS/SIMILAR LOW STRATUS CEILINGS COULD OCCUR PER
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING POTENTIAL BEING PRESENT ACROSS THIS
AREA OVER PAST 24+ HRS...ALONG WITH CLRING SKIES/LIGHT WINDS. ADDRESSED
POSSIBILITY WITH PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS/CEILINGS 06/08Z-06/15Z. OTHERWISE...
BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT TO PROVIDE VFR/SKC CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS 06/14Z-06/24Z WITH NW/N SFC WINDS 5-10KTS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........31
LONG TERM..................21




000
FXUS64 KOHX 052339
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
639 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. A VERTICALLY
STACKED NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPING CONDITIONS ON THE COOL SIDE. CLOUD
COVER...ALSO NOTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND IS
KEEPING A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE MID STATE. THE TREND WILL BE FOR THESE CLOUDS TO DECREASE BUT
IT MAY TAKE A FEW HOURS BEFORE THAT REALLY HAPPENS. THUS...WILL
NOTCH UP THE INITIAL CLOUD COVER AND INTERPOLATE TOWARD A MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT. WILL THEN REISSUE ZONES. OTW...REMAINDER OF FCST IN
GOOD SHAPE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL COVER KCSV AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF VCTS SO I`LL INCLUDE
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS OFF THE TOP...OTHERWISE JUST -RA. MOSTLY VFR
CLOUD DECK WILL PUSH INTO OUR TWO OTHER MID-STATE TERMINALS LATER
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR
CIGS PRIOR TO 19Z. AFTER 19Z...KCSV SHOULD REMAIN MVFR...VFR WILL
RETURN TO KBNA/KCKV.

IT WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE STATE. NW GUSTS OF 20-24 KTS ARE LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON...RELAXING THIS EVENING.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........31
LONG TERM..................21




000
FXUS64 KMRX 052323
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
723 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.AVIATION...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE AWAY DURING THE
PERIOD. WILL SEE SOME RAIN AND SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH AND MAINLY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LOWEST CIGS LIKELY TO BE AT TRI WHERE WILL
INCLUDE MVFR LEVEL CIGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO FIRST PART OF
FRIDAY. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT CHA AND TYS.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 052323
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
723 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.AVIATION...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE AWAY DURING THE
PERIOD. WILL SEE SOME RAIN AND SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH AND MAINLY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LOWEST CIGS LIKELY TO BE AT TRI WHERE WILL
INCLUDE MVFR LEVEL CIGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO FIRST PART OF
FRIDAY. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT CHA AND TYS.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMEG 052303
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
603 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

TEMPERATURES ARE WARM UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
70S AND WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 70S. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BECOMING ORIENTED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNDAY. AS
A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN WARMER. EXPECT HIGHS IN TE
MIDDLE 70S AGAIN TOMORROW AND IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S TOMORROW.
PROBABLY GOING TO WATER THE GARDEN TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY FOR
SEVERAL MORE DAYS. MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT HANDLE THESE PATTERNS
WELL...OFTEN TRYING TO BREAK THEM DOWN TOO QUICKLY. ALREADY SEEING
EVIDENCE THAT IS THE CASE WE ARE SEEING NOW. SEVERAL DAYS AGO AS
WE WERE WATCHING THIS PATTERN DEVELOP MODELS BEGAN TO BREAK THE
PATTERN DOWN FRIDAY...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME TO SEE IT HOLD ON
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MONDAY OR TUESDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH
RESULTING IN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES
INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH IN THEIR DAY 5 OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALOFT. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION
IN THE HWO YET...BUT IT IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 01Z AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
AFTER 15Z...EXPECT NNE WINDS OF 7-12 KTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME
POSSIBLE GUSTS AT KTUP.

KRM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 052303
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
603 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

TEMPERATURES ARE WARM UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
70S AND WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 70S. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BECOMING ORIENTED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNDAY. AS
A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN WARMER. EXPECT HIGHS IN TE
MIDDLE 70S AGAIN TOMORROW AND IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S TOMORROW.
PROBABLY GOING TO WATER THE GARDEN TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY FOR
SEVERAL MORE DAYS. MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT HANDLE THESE PATTERNS
WELL...OFTEN TRYING TO BREAK THEM DOWN TOO QUICKLY. ALREADY SEEING
EVIDENCE THAT IS THE CASE WE ARE SEEING NOW. SEVERAL DAYS AGO AS
WE WERE WATCHING THIS PATTERN DEVELOP MODELS BEGAN TO BREAK THE
PATTERN DOWN FRIDAY...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME TO SEE IT HOLD ON
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MONDAY OR TUESDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH
RESULTING IN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES
INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH IN THEIR DAY 5 OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALOFT. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION
IN THE HWO YET...BUT IT IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 01Z AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
AFTER 15Z...EXPECT NNE WINDS OF 7-12 KTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME
POSSIBLE GUSTS AT KTUP.

KRM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 051953
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
253 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES ARE WARM UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
70S AND WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 70S. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BECOMING ORIENTED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNDAY. AS
A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN WARMER. EXPECT HIGHS IN TE
MIDDLE 70S AGAIN TOMORROW AND IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S TOMORROW.
PROBABLY GOING TO WATER THE GARDEN TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY FOR
SEVERAL MORE DAYS. MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT HANDLE THESE PATTERNS
WELL...OFTEN TRYING TO BREAK THEM DOWN TOO QUICKLY. ALREADY SEEING
EVIDENCE THAT IS THE CASE WE ARE SEEING NOW. SEVERAL DAYS AGO AS
WE WERE WATCHING THIS PATTERN DEVELOP MODELS BEGAN TO BREAK THE
PATTERN DOWN FRIDAY...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME TO SEE IT HOLD ON
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MONDAY OR TUESDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH
RESULTING IN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES
INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH IN THEIR DAY 5 OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALOFT. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION
IN THE HWO YET...BUT IT IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOME NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 KNOTS
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 051953
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
253 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES ARE WARM UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
70S AND WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 70S. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BECOMING ORIENTED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNDAY. AS
A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN WARMER. EXPECT HIGHS IN TE
MIDDLE 70S AGAIN TOMORROW AND IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S TOMORROW.
PROBABLY GOING TO WATER THE GARDEN TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY FOR
SEVERAL MORE DAYS. MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT HANDLE THESE PATTERNS
WELL...OFTEN TRYING TO BREAK THEM DOWN TOO QUICKLY. ALREADY SEEING
EVIDENCE THAT IS THE CASE WE ARE SEEING NOW. SEVERAL DAYS AGO AS
WE WERE WATCHING THIS PATTERN DEVELOP MODELS BEGAN TO BREAK THE
PATTERN DOWN FRIDAY...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME TO SEE IT HOLD ON
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MONDAY OR TUESDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH
RESULTING IN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES
INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH IN THEIR DAY 5 OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALOFT. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION
IN THE HWO YET...BUT IT IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOME NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 KNOTS
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 051911
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
311 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
COLD AIR ALOFT HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. ANY STORM THAT FORMS WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND THERE
HAVE BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION...THE FREEZING LEVEL IS RATHER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR AROUND 5000 FEET. DUE TO THIS LOWER FREEZING LEVEL...SNOW IS
FALLING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE TENNESSEE/NORTH
CAROLINA LINE. MOUNT LECONTE HAS REPORTED AROUND HALF AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION ALREADY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
PEAKS ABOVE 5500 FEET WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES BY
THE END OF THE NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TONIGHT THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE OVER NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THANKS TO
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO
AN END TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEY AND ACROSS
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
AVERAGE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO MID 40S
ACROSS THE VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY
CONTINUES TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM LOW 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW 70S
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT COOLER AIR TO THE AREA WILL BE LIFTING
OUT OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY...A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH BRINGING OCCASIONAL BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS INTO
NORTHERN LOCATIONS. THEN...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE POSITIONED
ALONG OUR NORTHERN BORDER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...CONTINUING TO BRING IN
OCCASIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONCENTRATED OVER NORTHERN AREAS. WILL BE IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED AS A SERIES OF
FRONTS/SHORT WAVES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT IN PLACE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A WARMING TREND
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BRING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND AND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             46  72  50  80 /  10   0  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  45  69  48  78 /  20  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       45  70  48  78 /  20   0  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              42  64  45  74 /  80  50  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MA




000
FXUS64 KMRX 051911
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
311 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
COLD AIR ALOFT HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. ANY STORM THAT FORMS WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND THERE
HAVE BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION...THE FREEZING LEVEL IS RATHER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR AROUND 5000 FEET. DUE TO THIS LOWER FREEZING LEVEL...SNOW IS
FALLING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE TENNESSEE/NORTH
CAROLINA LINE. MOUNT LECONTE HAS REPORTED AROUND HALF AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION ALREADY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
PEAKS ABOVE 5500 FEET WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES BY
THE END OF THE NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TONIGHT THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE OVER NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THANKS TO
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO
AN END TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEY AND ACROSS
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
AVERAGE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO MID 40S
ACROSS THE VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY
CONTINUES TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM LOW 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW 70S
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT COOLER AIR TO THE AREA WILL BE LIFTING
OUT OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY...A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH BRINGING OCCASIONAL BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS INTO
NORTHERN LOCATIONS. THEN...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE POSITIONED
ALONG OUR NORTHERN BORDER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...CONTINUING TO BRING IN
OCCASIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONCENTRATED OVER NORTHERN AREAS. WILL BE IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED AS A SERIES OF
FRONTS/SHORT WAVES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT IN PLACE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A WARMING TREND
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BRING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND AND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             46  72  50  80 /  10   0  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  45  69  48  78 /  20  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       45  70  48  78 /  20   0  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              42  64  45  74 /  80  50  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MA




000
FXUS64 KOHX 051853
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
153 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE MAP AT 18Z SHOWS AN EAST-WEST TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS STILL STREAMING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
PLATEAU. UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE RESULT IS A
BREEZY, MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. SO
LOOK FOR ONE MORE ABNORMALLY COOL NIGHT BEFORE THE SUN BREAKS OUT
TOMORROW AND BRINGS US WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE DRY PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP TO OUR NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
UPPER PLATEAU. THE REST OF US WON`T SEE ACTIVE WEATHER UNTIL
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL MARK A TRANSITION BACK TO A WET PATTERN NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES KEEPS AT LEAST SCATTERED POP`S IN THE
FORECAST AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK
ABOVE NORMAL FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND, THEN
TRANSITIONS OVER TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/CARIBBEAN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL COVER KCSV AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF VCTS SO I`LL INCLUDE
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS OFF THE TOP...OTHERWISE JUST -RA. MOSTLY VFR
CLOUD DECK WILL PUSH INTO OUR TWO OTHER MID-STATE TERMINALS LATER
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR
CIGS PRIOR TO 19Z. AFTER 19Z...KCSV SHOULD REMAIN MVFR...VFR WILL
RETURN TO KBNA/KCKV.

IT WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE STATE. NW GUSTS OF 20-24 KTS ARE LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON...RELAXING THIS EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      47  73  53  83  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    45  72  52  80  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
CROSSVILLE     44  66  48  76  59 /  10   0   0  10  10
COLUMBIA       45  72  51  80  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   45  73  50  81  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
WAVERLY        45  73  53  81  60 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........01/BOYD
LONG TERM..................08




000
FXUS64 KOHX 051853
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
153 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE MAP AT 18Z SHOWS AN EAST-WEST TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS STILL STREAMING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
PLATEAU. UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE RESULT IS A
BREEZY, MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. SO
LOOK FOR ONE MORE ABNORMALLY COOL NIGHT BEFORE THE SUN BREAKS OUT
TOMORROW AND BRINGS US WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE DRY PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP TO OUR NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
UPPER PLATEAU. THE REST OF US WON`T SEE ACTIVE WEATHER UNTIL
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL MARK A TRANSITION BACK TO A WET PATTERN NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES KEEPS AT LEAST SCATTERED POP`S IN THE
FORECAST AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK
ABOVE NORMAL FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND, THEN
TRANSITIONS OVER TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/CARIBBEAN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL COVER KCSV AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF VCTS SO I`LL INCLUDE
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS OFF THE TOP...OTHERWISE JUST -RA. MOSTLY VFR
CLOUD DECK WILL PUSH INTO OUR TWO OTHER MID-STATE TERMINALS LATER
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR
CIGS PRIOR TO 19Z. AFTER 19Z...KCSV SHOULD REMAIN MVFR...VFR WILL
RETURN TO KBNA/KCKV.

IT WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE STATE. NW GUSTS OF 20-24 KTS ARE LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON...RELAXING THIS EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      47  73  53  83  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    45  72  52  80  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
CROSSVILLE     44  66  48  76  59 /  10   0   0  10  10
COLUMBIA       45  72  51  80  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   45  73  50  81  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
WAVERLY        45  73  53  81  60 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........01/BOYD
LONG TERM..................08




000
FXUS64 KOHX 051840
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
140 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS NORTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES WORK DOWN INTO THE MID STATE THANKS TO COLD UPPER
LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE KEEPING CLOUDS ROTATING DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION LOOK FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
SCATTERED ALONG THE PLATEAU MAINLY IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND AS WE
GO THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF ALONG THE SOUTH END OF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU WHILE STRATOCU CONTINUES TO ROTATE DOWN ACROSS MOST OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS CLOSED UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED ALONG THE
TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WITH A -26 DEGREE CELSIUS
ISOTHERM NEAR THE CENTER. ONCE SUN GOES DOWN EXPECT TO SEE
STRATOCU TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVER MY CWA AS UPPER LOW PULLS
FARTHER EAST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........01/BOYD
LONG TERM..................08




000
FXUS64 KOHX 051840
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
140 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS NORTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES WORK DOWN INTO THE MID STATE THANKS TO COLD UPPER
LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE KEEPING CLOUDS ROTATING DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION LOOK FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
SCATTERED ALONG THE PLATEAU MAINLY IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND AS WE
GO THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF ALONG THE SOUTH END OF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU WHILE STRATOCU CONTINUES TO ROTATE DOWN ACROSS MOST OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS CLOSED UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED ALONG THE
TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WITH A -26 DEGREE CELSIUS
ISOTHERM NEAR THE CENTER. ONCE SUN GOES DOWN EXPECT TO SEE
STRATOCU TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVER MY CWA AS UPPER LOW PULLS
FARTHER EAST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........01/BOYD
LONG TERM..................08




000
FXUS64 KMRX 051743
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
143 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. KTYS CEILINGS HAVE
BEEN BOUNCING AROUND FROM MVFR TO VFR AND HAVE WENT WITH MVFR THERE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SHOWERS WILL END AROUND 21-00Z AT
KCHA AND KTYS AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP ONGOING PRECIPITATION AT KTRI THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             63  47  73  50 /  40  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  57  46  69  49 /  80  50  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       58  46  70  49 /  80  30  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              55  43  63  46 /  70  70  40  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MA




000
FXUS64 KMEG 051727
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1227 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

UPDATE...

TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING DESPITE MODERATELY
STRONG NORTH WIND. BUMPED AFTERNOON HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY...INTO THE
MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS
ON TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES NEEDED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

CURRENTLY... 08Z H5 ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LONGWAVE TROUGH SITUATED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF CONUS WITH A RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED JUST
LEEWARD OF THE ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE PLAINS WITH A SURFACE LOW ROUGHLY OVER LAKE ERIE WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE FEATURE THROUGH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI. AROUND THE MIDSOUTH A QUIET NIGHT IS ONGOING WITH 3
AM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 5 KTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE MIDSOUTH WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED
BETWEEN THE SFC LOW TO THE EAST AND THE HIGH CENTER TO THE WEST
AND THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S. AS THE SFC HIGH CENTERS OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY
THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL
SPARK A WARMING TREND TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL BE NEAR OR JUST IN EXCESS
80 DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY THE SFC HIGH
MIGRATES SE OF THE REGION WITH SFC WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY
JUST AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO DEGRADE IN ITS AMPLITUDE WITH
MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER LOW PUSHES
EAST OVER THE PLAINS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION WILL
ENSUE AND WILL SIGNAL THE START TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR
NEXT WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS A SFC LOW
DEEPENS. THE GFS IS CURRENTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE TWO
FEATURES THAN THE ECMWF...WITH THE FORMER PROVIDING BETTER
DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY TO THE LOCAL REGION. THIS DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS LEAVES LITTLE CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF STORMS. AS SUCH HAVE MADE NO MENTION OF
STRONG STORMS AT THE MOMENT IN THE HWO. THE GFS ALSO RESOLVES NEAR
1.70 INCH PWAT VALUES FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH CURRENTLY APPEARS
BEST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER WAVE SWINGS OVER
THE REGION. THIS WOULD BE IN THE TOP 20 PERCENT FOR PWAT VALUES
FOR THE MONTH OF MAY SO HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO BE A FACTOR
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. AS THE SFC
FRONT HANGS UP WEST OF THE REGION SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SW FLOW MOVE OVER THE SFC FEATURE RESULTING
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY TO MID MAY.

MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN
THE PERIOD RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF CHC POPS THROUGH THE
END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOME NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 KNOTS
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 051727
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1227 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

UPDATE...

TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING DESPITE MODERATELY
STRONG NORTH WIND. BUMPED AFTERNOON HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY...INTO THE
MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS
ON TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES NEEDED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

CURRENTLY... 08Z H5 ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LONGWAVE TROUGH SITUATED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF CONUS WITH A RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED JUST
LEEWARD OF THE ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE PLAINS WITH A SURFACE LOW ROUGHLY OVER LAKE ERIE WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE FEATURE THROUGH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI. AROUND THE MIDSOUTH A QUIET NIGHT IS ONGOING WITH 3
AM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 5 KTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE MIDSOUTH WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED
BETWEEN THE SFC LOW TO THE EAST AND THE HIGH CENTER TO THE WEST
AND THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S. AS THE SFC HIGH CENTERS OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY
THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL
SPARK A WARMING TREND TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL BE NEAR OR JUST IN EXCESS
80 DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY THE SFC HIGH
MIGRATES SE OF THE REGION WITH SFC WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY
JUST AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO DEGRADE IN ITS AMPLITUDE WITH
MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER LOW PUSHES
EAST OVER THE PLAINS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION WILL
ENSUE AND WILL SIGNAL THE START TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR
NEXT WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS A SFC LOW
DEEPENS. THE GFS IS CURRENTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE TWO
FEATURES THAN THE ECMWF...WITH THE FORMER PROVIDING BETTER
DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY TO THE LOCAL REGION. THIS DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS LEAVES LITTLE CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF STORMS. AS SUCH HAVE MADE NO MENTION OF
STRONG STORMS AT THE MOMENT IN THE HWO. THE GFS ALSO RESOLVES NEAR
1.70 INCH PWAT VALUES FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH CURRENTLY APPEARS
BEST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER WAVE SWINGS OVER
THE REGION. THIS WOULD BE IN THE TOP 20 PERCENT FOR PWAT VALUES
FOR THE MONTH OF MAY SO HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO BE A FACTOR
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. AS THE SFC
FRONT HANGS UP WEST OF THE REGION SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SW FLOW MOVE OVER THE SFC FEATURE RESULTING
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY TO MID MAY.

MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN
THE PERIOD RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF CHC POPS THROUGH THE
END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOME NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 KNOTS
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 051512
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1012 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...

TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING DESPITE MODERATELY
STRONG NORTH WIND. BUMPED AFTERNOON HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY...INTO THE
MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS
ON TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES NEEDED.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

CURRENTLY... 08Z H5 ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LONGWAVE TROUGH SITUATED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF CONUS WITH A RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED JUST
LEEWARD OF THE ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE PLAINS WITH A SURFACE LOW ROUGHLY OVER LAKE ERIE WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE FEATURE THROUGH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI. AROUND THE MIDSOUTH A QUIET NIGHT IS ONGOING WITH 3
AM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 5 KTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE MIDSOUTH WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED
BETWEEN THE SFC LOW TO THE EAST AND THE HIGH CENTER TO THE WEST
AND THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S. AS THE SFC HIGH CENTERS OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY
THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL
SPARK A WARMING TREND TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL BE NEAR OR JUST IN EXCESS
80 DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY THE SFC HIGH
MIGRATES SE OF THE REGION WITH SFC WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY
JUST AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO DEGRADE IN ITS AMPLITUDE WITH
MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER LOW PUSHES
EAST OVER THE PLAINS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION WILL
ENSUE AND WILL SIGNAL THE START TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR
NEXT WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS A SFC LOW
DEEPENS. THE GFS IS CURRENTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE TWO
FEATURES THAN THE ECMWF...WITH THE FORMER PROVIDING BETTER
DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY TO THE LOCAL REGION. THIS DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS LEAVES LITTLE CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF STORMS. AS SUCH HAVE MADE NO MENTION OF
STRONG STORMS AT THE MOMENT IN THE HWO. THE GFS ALSO RESOLVES NEAR
1.70 INCH PWAT VALUES FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH CURRENTLY APPEARS
BEST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER WAVE SWINGS OVER
THE REGION. THIS WOULD BE IN THE TOP 20 PERCENT FOR PWAT VALUES
FOR THE MONTH OF MAY SO HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO BE A FACTOR
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. AS THE SFC
FRONT HANGS UP WEST OF THE REGION SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SW FLOW MOVE OVER THE SFC FEATURE RESULTING
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY TO MID MAY.

MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN
THE PERIOD RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF CHC POPS THROUGH THE
END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES. STRENTHENING NORTH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED LATER THIS
MORNING AND BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 051437
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
937 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS NORTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES WORK DOWN INTO THE MID STATE THANKS TO COLD UPPER
LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE KEEPING CLOUDS ROTATING DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION LOOK FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
SCATTERED ALONG THE PLATEAU MAINLY IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND AS WE
GO THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL COVER KCSV AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF VCTS SO I`LL INCLUDE
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS OFF THE TOP...OTHERWISE JUST -RA. MOSTLY VFR
CLOUD DECK WILL PUSH INTO OUR TWO OTHER MID-STATE TERMINALS LATER
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR
CIGS PRIOR TO 19Z. AFTER 19Z...KCSV SHOULD REMAIN MVFR...VFR WILL
RETURN TO KBNA/KCKV.

IT WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE STATE. NW GUSTS OF 20-24 KTS ARE LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON...RELAXING THIS EVENING.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........01/BOYD
LONG TERM..................08




000
FXUS64 KMRX 051348
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
948 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY AND EAST TENNESSEE. THE AIR ALOFT IS VERY COLD FOR EARLY
MAY AND THE TEMPERATURE CURRENTLY AT NEWFOUND GAP IS 30 DEGREES.
WITH PRECIPITATION INCREASING LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR
LOCATIONS ABOVE 4500-5000 FT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH. THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO LEAD TO STEEP
LAPSE RATES WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL WILL
BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             47  73  50  82 /  10   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  46  69  49  78 /  50  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       46  70  49  80 /  30  10   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              43  63  46  74 /  70  40  20  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MA




000
FXUS64 KMRX 051348
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
948 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY AND EAST TENNESSEE. THE AIR ALOFT IS VERY COLD FOR EARLY
MAY AND THE TEMPERATURE CURRENTLY AT NEWFOUND GAP IS 30 DEGREES.
WITH PRECIPITATION INCREASING LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR
LOCATIONS ABOVE 4500-5000 FT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH. THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO LEAD TO STEEP
LAPSE RATES WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL WILL
BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             47  73  50  82 /  10   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  46  69  49  78 /  50  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       46  70  49  80 /  30  10   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              43  63  46  74 /  70  40  20  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MA




000
FXUS64 KMEG 051155
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
655 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

CURRENTLY... 08Z H5 ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LONGWAVE TROUGH SITUATED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF CONUS WITH A RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED JUST
LEEWARD OF THE ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE PLAINS WITH A SURFACE LOW ROUGHLY OVER LAKE ERIE WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE FEATURE THROUGH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI. AROUND THE MIDSOUTH A QUIET NIGHT IS ONGOING WITH 3
AM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 5 KTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE MIDSOUTH WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED
BETWEEN THE SFC LOW TO THE EAST AND THE HIGH CENTER TO THE WEST
AND THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S. AS THE SFC HIGH CENTERS OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY
THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL
SPARK A WARMING TREND TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL BE NEAR OR JUST IN EXCESS
80 DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY THE SFC HIGH
MIGRATES SE OF THE REGION WITH SFC WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY
JUST AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO DEGRADE IN ITS AMPLITUDE WITH
MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER LOW PUSHES
EAST OVER THE PLAINS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION WILL
ENSUE AND WILL SIGNAL THE START TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR
NEXT WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS A SFC LOW
DEEPENS. THE GFS IS CURRENTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE TWO
FEATURES THAN THE ECMWF...WITH THE FORMER PROVIDING BETTER
DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY TO THE LOCAL REGION. THIS DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS LEAVES LITTLE CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF STORMS. AS SUCH HAVE MADE NO MENTION OF
STRONG STORMS AT THE MOMENT IN THE HWO. THE GFS ALSO RESOLVES NEAR
1.70 INCH PWAT VALUES FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH CURRENTLY APPEARS
BEST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER WAVE SWINGS OVER
THE REGION. THIS WOULD BE IN THE TOP 20 PERCENT FOR PWAT VALUES
FOR THE MONTH OF MAY SO HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO BE A FACTOR
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. AS THE SFC
FRONT HANGS UP WEST OF THE REGION SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SW FLOW MOVE OVER THE SFC FEATURE RESULTING
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY TO MID MAY.

MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN
THE PERIOD RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF CHC POPS THROUGH THE
END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES. STRENTHENING NORTH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED LATER THIS
MORNING AND BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 051155
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
655 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

CURRENTLY... 08Z H5 ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LONGWAVE TROUGH SITUATED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF CONUS WITH A RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED JUST
LEEWARD OF THE ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE PLAINS WITH A SURFACE LOW ROUGHLY OVER LAKE ERIE WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE FEATURE THROUGH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI. AROUND THE MIDSOUTH A QUIET NIGHT IS ONGOING WITH 3
AM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 5 KTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE MIDSOUTH WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED
BETWEEN THE SFC LOW TO THE EAST AND THE HIGH CENTER TO THE WEST
AND THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S. AS THE SFC HIGH CENTERS OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY
THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL
SPARK A WARMING TREND TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL BE NEAR OR JUST IN EXCESS
80 DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY THE SFC HIGH
MIGRATES SE OF THE REGION WITH SFC WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY
JUST AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO DEGRADE IN ITS AMPLITUDE WITH
MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER LOW PUSHES
EAST OVER THE PLAINS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION WILL
ENSUE AND WILL SIGNAL THE START TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR
NEXT WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS A SFC LOW
DEEPENS. THE GFS IS CURRENTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE TWO
FEATURES THAN THE ECMWF...WITH THE FORMER PROVIDING BETTER
DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY TO THE LOCAL REGION. THIS DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS LEAVES LITTLE CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF STORMS. AS SUCH HAVE MADE NO MENTION OF
STRONG STORMS AT THE MOMENT IN THE HWO. THE GFS ALSO RESOLVES NEAR
1.70 INCH PWAT VALUES FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH CURRENTLY APPEARS
BEST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER WAVE SWINGS OVER
THE REGION. THIS WOULD BE IN THE TOP 20 PERCENT FOR PWAT VALUES
FOR THE MONTH OF MAY SO HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO BE A FACTOR
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. AS THE SFC
FRONT HANGS UP WEST OF THE REGION SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SW FLOW MOVE OVER THE SFC FEATURE RESULTING
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY TO MID MAY.

MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN
THE PERIOD RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF CHC POPS THROUGH THE
END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES. STRENTHENING NORTH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED LATER THIS
MORNING AND BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 051131
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
731 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.AVIATION...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP MOVING IN AS THE CENTER OF A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER ROTATES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. CAN`T RULE
OUT A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE VCTS IN TAFS...BEST CHANCE OF A
VCTS WOULD BE AT TYS. THESE SHOWERS EXIT LATE AFTERNOON. ALL TAF
SITES SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH THIS TIME...UNLESS A SHOWER PASSES
DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL WHICH COULD THEN LOWER CIGS TO BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS. A FINAL ROUND OF PRECIP MOVES IN TONIGHT AT TRI AS
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS ROUND OF PRECIP
WILL DROP TRI TO MVFR CONDITIONS...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 051131
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
731 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.AVIATION...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP MOVING IN AS THE CENTER OF A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER ROTATES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. CAN`T RULE
OUT A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE VCTS IN TAFS...BEST CHANCE OF A
VCTS WOULD BE AT TYS. THESE SHOWERS EXIT LATE AFTERNOON. ALL TAF
SITES SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH THIS TIME...UNLESS A SHOWER PASSES
DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL WHICH COULD THEN LOWER CIGS TO BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS. A FINAL ROUND OF PRECIP MOVES IN TONIGHT AT TRI AS
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS ROUND OF PRECIP
WILL DROP TRI TO MVFR CONDITIONS...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 051128
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
628 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE PLATEAU...PRETTY QUIET
EVENING ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE EAST AS THE UPPER CLOSED LOW DIGS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS BRING IN MORE CAA. HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO
ONLY REACH THE MID 50S ON THE PLATEAU AND LOW TO MID 60S
ELSEWHERE. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO PICK UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP RIGHT WHEN THE UPPER CLOSED
LOW IS OVER EASTERN TN/WESTERN NC. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20
MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF I40 AND
ALONG THE I65/I24 CORRIDOR. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO RELAX
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO EXPECT WINDS TO BE HIGHEST
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

A WARMING TREND WILL START MOVING IN ON FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW
EXITING INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING WILL
REPLACE IT AND START WARMING UP THE REGION. BY SATURDAY MOST OF
THE MID STATE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 80S. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
LOOKS TO BE EARLY ON SUNDAY AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH
THE UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW AND CLIPS OUR NORTH AND EAST.

BY MONDAY...UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND PAVES THE
WAY FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION TO RETURN AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW AND PROVIDE
ENOUGH OF A DISTURBANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
WITH CURRENT MODEL RUNS...NO DAY IS STICKING OUT AS HAVING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS COMPARED TO ANOTHER DAY NEXT
WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE HIGHER INSTABILITY OFF TO
THE WEST OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND 0-6KM SHEAR
IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE AS WELL. ENOUGH MUCAPE EXISTS WEDNESDAY FOR
SOME STRONGER STORMS...BUT AGAIN SHEAR IS WEAK AND MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN CONSISTENT ON THE SEVERE POSSIBILITIES TO NAIL DOWN THE
BETTER DAY FOR NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER LOOKING AT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CHANCES WITH THURSDAY DURING THE DAY HAVING THE BEST CHANCES ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL COVER KCSV AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF VCTS SO I`LL INCLUDE
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS OFF THE TOP...OTHERWISE JUST -RA. MOSTLY VFR
CLOUD DECK WILL PUSH INTO OUR TWO OTHER MID-STATE TERMINALS LATER
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR
CIGS PRIOR TO 19Z. AFTER 19Z...KCSV SHOULD REMAIN MVFR...VFR WILL
RETURN TO KBNA/KCKV.

IT WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE STATE. NW GUSTS OF 20-24 KTS ARE LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON...RELAXING THIS EVENING.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST........BARNWELL
AVIATION........UNGER




000
FXUS64 KOHX 051128
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
628 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE PLATEAU...PRETTY QUIET
EVENING ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE EAST AS THE UPPER CLOSED LOW DIGS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS BRING IN MORE CAA. HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO
ONLY REACH THE MID 50S ON THE PLATEAU AND LOW TO MID 60S
ELSEWHERE. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO PICK UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP RIGHT WHEN THE UPPER CLOSED
LOW IS OVER EASTERN TN/WESTERN NC. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20
MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF I40 AND
ALONG THE I65/I24 CORRIDOR. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO RELAX
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO EXPECT WINDS TO BE HIGHEST
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

A WARMING TREND WILL START MOVING IN ON FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW
EXITING INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING WILL
REPLACE IT AND START WARMING UP THE REGION. BY SATURDAY MOST OF
THE MID STATE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 80S. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
LOOKS TO BE EARLY ON SUNDAY AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH
THE UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW AND CLIPS OUR NORTH AND EAST.

BY MONDAY...UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND PAVES THE
WAY FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION TO RETURN AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW AND PROVIDE
ENOUGH OF A DISTURBANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
WITH CURRENT MODEL RUNS...NO DAY IS STICKING OUT AS HAVING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS COMPARED TO ANOTHER DAY NEXT
WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE HIGHER INSTABILITY OFF TO
THE WEST OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND 0-6KM SHEAR
IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE AS WELL. ENOUGH MUCAPE EXISTS WEDNESDAY FOR
SOME STRONGER STORMS...BUT AGAIN SHEAR IS WEAK AND MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN CONSISTENT ON THE SEVERE POSSIBILITIES TO NAIL DOWN THE
BETTER DAY FOR NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER LOOKING AT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CHANCES WITH THURSDAY DURING THE DAY HAVING THE BEST CHANCES ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL COVER KCSV AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF VCTS SO I`LL INCLUDE
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS OFF THE TOP...OTHERWISE JUST -RA. MOSTLY VFR
CLOUD DECK WILL PUSH INTO OUR TWO OTHER MID-STATE TERMINALS LATER
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR
CIGS PRIOR TO 19Z. AFTER 19Z...KCSV SHOULD REMAIN MVFR...VFR WILL
RETURN TO KBNA/KCKV.

IT WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE STATE. NW GUSTS OF 20-24 KTS ARE LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON...RELAXING THIS EVENING.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST........BARNWELL
AVIATION........UNGER




000
FXUS64 KMRX 051012
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
612 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN FORECAST. UPDATE WAS BASED ON WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATE
STEEPEN. ALSO...THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN LIGHTNING DETECTED WITH
THE UPSTREAM PRECIP MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS
PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
BE MOVING DOWN INTO OUR AREA. ADDITIONALLY...CAN`T RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PEA SIZED HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUNDINGS SHOW
A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE. ALSO TWEAKED POP TIMING AND CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAY AS HI RES SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             63  47  73  50 /  30  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  57  46  69  49 /  60  50  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       58  46  70  49 /  60  30  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              55  43  63  46 /  80  70  40  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 051012
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
612 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN FORECAST. UPDATE WAS BASED ON WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATE
STEEPEN. ALSO...THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN LIGHTNING DETECTED WITH
THE UPSTREAM PRECIP MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS
PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
BE MOVING DOWN INTO OUR AREA. ADDITIONALLY...CAN`T RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PEA SIZED HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUNDINGS SHOW
A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE. ALSO TWEAKED POP TIMING AND CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAY AS HI RES SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             63  47  73  50 /  30  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  57  46  69  49 /  60  50  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       58  46  70  49 /  60  30  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              55  43  63  46 /  80  70  40  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMEG 050839
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
339 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY... 08Z H5 ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LONGWAVE TROUGH SITUATED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF CONUS WITH A RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED JUST
LEEWARD OF THE ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE PLAINS WITH A SURFACE LOW ROUGHLY OVER LAKE ERIE WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE FEATURE THROUGH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI. AROUND THE MIDSOUTH A QUIET NIGHT IS ONGOING WITH 3
AM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 5 KTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE MIDSOUTH WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED
BETWEEN THE SFC LOW TO THE EAST AND THE HIGH CENTER TO THE WEST
AND THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S. AS THE SFC HIGH CENTERS OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY
THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL
SPARK A WARMING TREND TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL BE NEAR OR JUST IN EXCESS
80 DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY THE SFC HIGH
MIGRATES SE OF THE REGION WITH SFC WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY
JUST AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO DEGRADE IN ITS AMPLITUDE WITH
MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER LOW PUSHES
EAST OVER THE PLAINS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION WILL
ENSUE AND WILL SIGNAL THE START TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR
NEXT WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS A SFC LOW
DEEPENS. THE GFS IS CURRENTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE TWO
FEATURES THAN THE ECMWF...WITH THE FORMER PROVIDING BETTER
DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY TO THE LOCAL REGION. THIS DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS LEAVES LITTLE CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF STORMS. AS SUCH HAVE MADE NO MENTION OF
STRONG STORMS AT THE MOMENT IN THE HWO. THE GFS ALSO RESOLVES NEAR
1.70 INCH PWAT VALUES FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH CURRENTLY APPEARS
BEST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER WAVE SWINGS OVER
THE REGION. THIS WOULD BE IN THE TOP 20 PERCENT FOR PWAT VALUES
FOR THE MONTH OF MAY SO HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO BE A FACTOR
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. AS THE SFC
FRONT HANGS UP WEST OF THE REGION SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SW FLOW MOVE OVER THE SFC FEATURE RESULTING
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY TO MID MAY.

MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN
THE PERIOD RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF CHC POPS THROUGH THE
END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. STRATO-CU AROUND
4000-5000 FT WILL LIKELY BEGIN REDEVELOPING AROUND 15Z. EXPECT
KMKL AND KTUP TO GO BKN BETWEEN 18-21Z. STRONG AND GUSTY N-NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND 15Z. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 16-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 28 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 050756
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
356 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...IMPRESSIVE LATE SEASON
LOW PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CENTER OF UPPER
LOW WILL PASS DIRECTLY OVER NETN AND SWVA TO START THE PERIOD AND
BRING THE COLDEST 850 TEMPS THUS FAR FOR THIS EVENT. PROXIMITY TO
TROUGH BASE AND LOW CIRCULATION ALLOWS A STRONG VORTICITY FIELD TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE CWA. WITH THIS LOW ANOTHER BOUT OF MOISTURE ALSO
MOVES IN. MOISTURE COMBINED WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL
ALLOW FOR LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
NAM ALONG WITH OTHER HI-RES SOUNDINGS SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW ABOVE
4000/4500 FEET AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH. PRECIP MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLATEAU AROUND 12Z AND EXITS ACROSS OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AROUND 21Z. BEST WINDOW FOR SNOW ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS OF OUR
EASTERN MOUNTAINS LOOKS TO BE FROM 15Z THROUGH ABOUT 20/21Z. DURING
THIS STRETCH...ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5K FEET SHOULD PICK UP AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOW WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION AROUND THE 4000/4500
FOOT MARK. AGAIN...SNOW OPPORTUNITY AND OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES
DECREASE AFTER 20/21Z AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW DROPS DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL LEAVE US WITH A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. AS THE
LOW MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
BEGINS TO ENTER SWVA AND NETN. THIS IS WHERE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHEST OVERNIGHT. AS THIS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVES IN THERE WILL
BE ANOTHER BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ABOVE 5000
FEET...WITH UP TO HALF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S SOUTHERN VALLEY TO UPPER 40S/LOW
50S ACROSS SWVA. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LOW
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY. THE COLD
AIR ALOFT...OROGRAPHIC LIFT...AND SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE.

THE UPPER LOW GETS PICKED UP BY A CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH. SHORT-WAVE
ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ALONG WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
LIMITED INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN PLATEAU...AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE FOR LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A
SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW MUCH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ADVECTS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             63  47  73  50 /  30  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  57  46  69  49 /  60  50  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       58  46  70  49 /  60  30  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              55  43  63  46 /  80  70  40  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 050756
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
356 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...IMPRESSIVE LATE SEASON
LOW PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CENTER OF UPPER
LOW WILL PASS DIRECTLY OVER NETN AND SWVA TO START THE PERIOD AND
BRING THE COLDEST 850 TEMPS THUS FAR FOR THIS EVENT. PROXIMITY TO
TROUGH BASE AND LOW CIRCULATION ALLOWS A STRONG VORTICITY FIELD TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE CWA. WITH THIS LOW ANOTHER BOUT OF MOISTURE ALSO
MOVES IN. MOISTURE COMBINED WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL
ALLOW FOR LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
NAM ALONG WITH OTHER HI-RES SOUNDINGS SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW ABOVE
4000/4500 FEET AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH. PRECIP MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLATEAU AROUND 12Z AND EXITS ACROSS OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AROUND 21Z. BEST WINDOW FOR SNOW ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS OF OUR
EASTERN MOUNTAINS LOOKS TO BE FROM 15Z THROUGH ABOUT 20/21Z. DURING
THIS STRETCH...ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5K FEET SHOULD PICK UP AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOW WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION AROUND THE 4000/4500
FOOT MARK. AGAIN...SNOW OPPORTUNITY AND OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES
DECREASE AFTER 20/21Z AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW DROPS DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL LEAVE US WITH A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. AS THE
LOW MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
BEGINS TO ENTER SWVA AND NETN. THIS IS WHERE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHEST OVERNIGHT. AS THIS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVES IN THERE WILL
BE ANOTHER BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ABOVE 5000
FEET...WITH UP TO HALF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S SOUTHERN VALLEY TO UPPER 40S/LOW
50S ACROSS SWVA. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LOW
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY. THE COLD
AIR ALOFT...OROGRAPHIC LIFT...AND SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE.

THE UPPER LOW GETS PICKED UP BY A CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH. SHORT-WAVE
ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ALONG WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
LIMITED INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN PLATEAU...AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE FOR LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A
SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW MUCH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ADVECTS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             63  47  73  50 /  30  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  57  46  69  49 /  60  50  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       58  46  70  49 /  60  30  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              55  43  63  46 /  80  70  40  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 050736
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
236 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE PLATEAU...PRETTY QUIET
EVENING ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE EAST AS THE UPPER CLOSED LOW DIGS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS BRING IN MORE CAA. HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO
ONLY REACH THE MID 50S ON THE PLATEAU AND LOW TO MID 60S
ELSEWHERE. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO PICK UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP RIGHT WHEN THE UPPER CLOSED
LOW IS OVER EASTERN TN/WESTERN NC. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20
MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF I40 AND
ALONG THE I65/I24 CORRIDOR. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO RELAX
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO EXPECT WINDS TO BE HIGHEST
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

A WARMING TREND WILL START MOVING IN ON FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW
EXITING INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING WILL
REPLACE IT AND START WARMING UP THE REGION. BY SATURDAY MOST OF
THE MID STATE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 80S. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
LOOKS TO BE EARLY ON SUNDAY AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH
THE UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW AND CLIPS OUR NORTH AND EAST.

BY MONDAY...UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND PAVES THE
WAY FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION TO RETURN AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW AND PROVIDE
ENOUGH OF A DISTURBANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
WITH CURRENT MODEL RUNS...NO DAY IS STICKING OUT AS HAVING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS COMPARED TO ANOTHER DAY NEXT
WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE HIGHER INSTABILITY OFF TO
THE WEST OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND 0-6KM SHEAR
IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE AS WELL. ENOUGH MUCAPE EXISTS WEDNESDAY FOR
SOME STRONGER STORMS...BUT AGAIN SHEAR IS WEAK AND MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN CONSISTENT ON THE SEVERE POSSIBILITIES TO NAIL DOWN THE
BETTER DAY FOR NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER LOOKING AT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CHANCES WITH THURSDAY DURING THE DAY HAVING THE BEST CHANCES ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT PASSAGES OF SCT/BKN CU/AC THRU 05/12Z.
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING POTENTIAL ALONG WITH BREAKS IN ABOVE
EXPECTED CLOUDINESS/LIGHT WINDS ALSO WILL SUPPORT MVFR-IFR FOG INDUCED
VSBYS CSV 05/08Z-05/15Z. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES/THEN MOVES ACROSS
UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY/LIFT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO
SUPPORT LIGHT ISO/SCT SHWRS 05/12Z-06/06Z. WITH EXACT TIMING FORMATION
STILL IN QUESTION...MENTIONED VCSH ONLY AT CSV. SOME LIGHT ISO SHWRS BNA/CKV
ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT IMPACTS/POTENTIAL COVERAGE NOT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MENTION
AT THESE TERMINALS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH/PASSAGE
WILL SUPPORT MVFR BKN STRATO CU CEILINGS 05/12Z-06/03Z...WITH SKC CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTERWARDS AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO REGION. AS SFC FRONT CONTINUES
TO MOVE SEWD...AND STRONG CANADIAN BASED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS TO OUR
N ALONG WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES BUILD TO OUR W ACROSS CNTRL
PLAINS...MID STATE REGION WILL BE IN AN AIR MASS TRANSITION ZONE...WITH A
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING AND BECOMING ENHANCED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT NW
WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS AT TIMES 05/15Z-06/03Z. SFC WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE THRU 06/03Z-06/06Z AS RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILD ACROSS INTO
MID STATE REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      64  48  74  52  84 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    63  46  72  52  81 /   0   0   0   0  10
CROSSVILLE     54  45  66  47  77 /  50  20   0   0  10
COLUMBIA       64  47  73  51  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   64  46  73  50  81 /  10   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        64  47  74  52  82 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......BARNWELL
AVIATION........31




000
FXUS64 KMRX 050540
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
140 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT HAS PASSED TO THE EAST. LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
END OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXCECPT AT TRI WHERE ISO LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTNG VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT
CHA AND TYS THOUGH NEAR MVFR AT TYS AS THE NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS
MOVES IN LATER TODAY. TRI WILL HOVER AROUND VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS BUT
WILL MAINTAIN VFR FOR NOW...UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN MVFR
CONDTIONS ARE FORECAST AS MORE APPRECIABLE MOSITURE MOVES IN.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 050448
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1148 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE... /ISSUED 849 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE MID-
SOUTH ALONG WITH JUST ABOUT ALL THE CLOUDS. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
MAYBE A FEW CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHERN MOST PART OF FORECAST AREA.

HAVE CHANGED CLOUD COVER FOR EARLY PART OF THIS EVENING.
ALSO...WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN EXPECTED...SO LOWERED WIND
SPEEDS BY A COUPLE MPH.  TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE ON TRACK.

TLSJR

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER CONTIGUOUS U.S.
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. IN THE INTERIM...A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL LIFT
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...TO THE MIDATLANTIC COAST. THE
MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE TO NO CHANCES OF RAIN FOLLOWING THIS
AFTERNOON/S SHOWERS EAST OF MEMPHIS.

THE OMEGA BLOCK WILL BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY...AS THE EASTERN U.S.
UPPER LOW IS OVERTAKEN BY NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW BRIEF UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD INTO
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...BRINING WARMER AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPS
TO THE MIDSOUTH THIS WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL DOWNSTREAM FROM AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE
MIDSOUTH BY EARLY MONDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES ARE EJECTED FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. PERSISTENT
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR CONTINUED
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...MODULATED BY
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES LIFTING INTO
THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. STRATO-CU AROUND
4000-5000 FT WILL LIKELY BEGIN REDEVELOPING AROUND 15Z. EXPECT
KMKL AND KTUP TO GO BKN BETWEEN 18-21Z. STRONG AND GUSTY N-NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND 15Z. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 16-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 28 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED.

KRM

&&



&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 050434
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1134 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES OVER THE NEXT HOUR. LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND SOME APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY HAS HELPED TO PRODUCE INSTANCES OF SMALL HAIL AND SOME
MINOR WIND DMG ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE THE BAND EXITS OUR
CWA...WILL THEN GO AHEAD AND REISSUE THE ZONES TO TAKE OUT THE
LATE AFT/EARLY EVE WORDING. WE WILL STILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER IN AND IS MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE LIES THE
ONGOING LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS.

OTW...A COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS IS
SHOWING SOME FAIRLY POTENT CAA AND WE STILL EXPECTED THE MERCURY
TO FALL INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

WILL ISSUE UPDATE SHORTLY AFTER 7 PM.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT PASSAGES OF SCT/BKN CU/AC THRU 05/12Z.
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING POTENTIAL ALONG WITH BREAKS IN ABOVE
EXPECTED CLOUDINESS/LIGHT WINDS ALSO WILL SUPPORT MVFR-IFR FOG INDUCED
VSBYS CSV 05/08Z-05/15Z. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES/THEN MOVES ACROSS
UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY/LIFT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO
SUPPORT LIGHT ISO/SCT SHWRS 05/12Z-06/06Z. WITH EXACT TIMING FORMATION
STILL IN QUESTION...MENTIONED VCSH ONLY AT CSV. SOME LIGHT ISO SHWRS BNA/CKV
ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT IMPACTS/POTENTIAL COVERAGE NOT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MENTION
AT THESE TERMINALS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH/PASSAGE
WILL SUPPORT MVFR BKN STRATO CU CEILINGS 05/12Z-06/03Z...WITH SKC CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTERWARDS AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO REGION. AS SFC FRONT CONTINUES
TO MOVE SEWD...AND STRONG CANADIAN BASED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS TO OUR
N ALONG WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES BUILD TO OUR W ACROSS CNTRL
PLAINS...MID STATE REGION WILL BE IN AN AIR MASS TRANSITION ZONE...WITH A
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING AND BECOMING ENHANCED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT NW
WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS AT TIMES 05/15Z-06/03Z. SFC WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE THRU 06/03Z-06/06Z AS RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILD ACROSS INTO
MID STATE REGION.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........31
LONG TERM..................21




000
FXUS64 KOHX 050434
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1134 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES OVER THE NEXT HOUR. LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND SOME APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY HAS HELPED TO PRODUCE INSTANCES OF SMALL HAIL AND SOME
MINOR WIND DMG ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE THE BAND EXITS OUR
CWA...WILL THEN GO AHEAD AND REISSUE THE ZONES TO TAKE OUT THE
LATE AFT/EARLY EVE WORDING. WE WILL STILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER IN AND IS MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE LIES THE
ONGOING LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS.

OTW...A COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS IS
SHOWING SOME FAIRLY POTENT CAA AND WE STILL EXPECTED THE MERCURY
TO FALL INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

WILL ISSUE UPDATE SHORTLY AFTER 7 PM.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT PASSAGES OF SCT/BKN CU/AC THRU 05/12Z.
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING POTENTIAL ALONG WITH BREAKS IN ABOVE
EXPECTED CLOUDINESS/LIGHT WINDS ALSO WILL SUPPORT MVFR-IFR FOG INDUCED
VSBYS CSV 05/08Z-05/15Z. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES/THEN MOVES ACROSS
UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY/LIFT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO
SUPPORT LIGHT ISO/SCT SHWRS 05/12Z-06/06Z. WITH EXACT TIMING FORMATION
STILL IN QUESTION...MENTIONED VCSH ONLY AT CSV. SOME LIGHT ISO SHWRS BNA/CKV
ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT IMPACTS/POTENTIAL COVERAGE NOT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MENTION
AT THESE TERMINALS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH/PASSAGE
WILL SUPPORT MVFR BKN STRATO CU CEILINGS 05/12Z-06/03Z...WITH SKC CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTERWARDS AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO REGION. AS SFC FRONT CONTINUES
TO MOVE SEWD...AND STRONG CANADIAN BASED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS TO OUR
N ALONG WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES BUILD TO OUR W ACROSS CNTRL
PLAINS...MID STATE REGION WILL BE IN AN AIR MASS TRANSITION ZONE...WITH A
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING AND BECOMING ENHANCED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT NW
WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS AT TIMES 05/15Z-06/03Z. SFC WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE THRU 06/03Z-06/06Z AS RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILD ACROSS INTO
MID STATE REGION.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........31
LONG TERM..................21




000
FXUS64 KMEG 050149
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
849 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE MID-
SOUTH ALONG WITH JUST ABOUT ALL THE CLOUDS. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
MAYBE A FEW CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHERN MOST PART OF FORECAST AREA.

HAVE CHANGED CLOUD COVER FOR EARLY PART OF THIS EVENING.
ALSO...WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN EXPECTED...SO LOWERED WIND
SPEEDS BY A COUPLE MPH.  TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE ON TRACK. TLSJR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER CONTIGUOUS U.S.
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. IN THE INTERIM...A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL LIFT
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...TO THE MIDATLANTIC COAST. THE
MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE TO NO CHANCES OF RAIN FOLLOWING THIS
AFTERNOON/S SHOWERS EAST OF MEMPHIS.

THE OMEGA BLOCK WILL BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY...AS THE EASTERN U.S.
UPPER LOW IS OVERTAKEN BY NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW BRIEF UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD INTO
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...BRINING WARMER AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPS
TO THE MIDSOUTH THIS WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL DOWNSTREAM FROM AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE
MIDSOUTH BY EARLY MONDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES ARE EJECTED FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. PERSISTENT
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR CONTINUED
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...MODULATED BY
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES LIFTING INTO
THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

LINGERING SHRAS NEAR KTUP WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. STRATO-CU AROUND 4000-5000 FT
WILL LIKELY BEGIN REDEVELOPING AROUND 15Z. EXPECT KMKL AND KTUP TO
GO BKN BETWEEN 18-21Z. STRONG AND GUSTY N-NW WINDS BEHIND COLD
FRONT WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT THEN PICK BACK UP AROUND 15Z.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 16-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 28 KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 050149
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
849 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE MID-
SOUTH ALONG WITH JUST ABOUT ALL THE CLOUDS. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
MAYBE A FEW CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHERN MOST PART OF FORECAST AREA.

HAVE CHANGED CLOUD COVER FOR EARLY PART OF THIS EVENING.
ALSO...WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN EXPECTED...SO LOWERED WIND
SPEEDS BY A COUPLE MPH.  TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE ON TRACK. TLSJR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER CONTIGUOUS U.S.
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. IN THE INTERIM...A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL LIFT
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...TO THE MIDATLANTIC COAST. THE
MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE TO NO CHANCES OF RAIN FOLLOWING THIS
AFTERNOON/S SHOWERS EAST OF MEMPHIS.

THE OMEGA BLOCK WILL BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY...AS THE EASTERN U.S.
UPPER LOW IS OVERTAKEN BY NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW BRIEF UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD INTO
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...BRINING WARMER AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPS
TO THE MIDSOUTH THIS WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL DOWNSTREAM FROM AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE
MIDSOUTH BY EARLY MONDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES ARE EJECTED FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. PERSISTENT
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR CONTINUED
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...MODULATED BY
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES LIFTING INTO
THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

LINGERING SHRAS NEAR KTUP WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. STRATO-CU AROUND 4000-5000 FT
WILL LIKELY BEGIN REDEVELOPING AROUND 15Z. EXPECT KMKL AND KTUP TO
GO BKN BETWEEN 18-21Z. STRONG AND GUSTY N-NW WINDS BEHIND COLD
FRONT WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT THEN PICK BACK UP AROUND 15Z.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 16-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 28 KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 050127
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
927 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS...AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA AS EXPECTED. STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS FREEZING LEVELS
FALL OVERNIGHT. THERE IS AN SPS OUT TALKING ABOUT THIS.
OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE. WILL ADJUST SKY COVER
A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBS AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND DEW POINTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             46  62  49  72 /  50  20  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  44  57  47  68 /  80  50  30  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       44  58  47  69 /  80  50  30  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              42  55  45  61 /  90  70  60  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 042351
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
651 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES OVER THE NEXT HOUR. LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND SOME APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY HAS HELPED TO PRODUCE INSTANCES OF SMALL HAIL AND SOME
MINOR WIND DMG ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE THE BAND EXITS OUR
CWA...WILL THEN GO AHEAD AND REISSUE THE ZONES TO TAKE OUT THE
LATE AFT/EARLY EVE WORDING. WE WILL STILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER IN AND IS MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE LIES THE
ONGOING LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS.

OTW...A COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS IS
SHOWING SOME FAIRLY POTENT CAA AND WE STILL EXPECTED THE MERCURY
TO FALL INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

WILL ISSUE UPDATE SHORTLY AFTER 7 PM.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL WORK ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY FOR THE
CSV AREA. OTW...PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS REMAINING NEAR CSV OVERNIGHT. DRY AND PCLDY SKIES CAN THEN
BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........31
LONG TERM..................21




000
FXUS64 KOHX 042351
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
651 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES OVER THE NEXT HOUR. LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND SOME APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY HAS HELPED TO PRODUCE INSTANCES OF SMALL HAIL AND SOME
MINOR WIND DMG ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE THE BAND EXITS OUR
CWA...WILL THEN GO AHEAD AND REISSUE THE ZONES TO TAKE OUT THE
LATE AFT/EARLY EVE WORDING. WE WILL STILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER IN AND IS MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE LIES THE
ONGOING LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS.

OTW...A COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS IS
SHOWING SOME FAIRLY POTENT CAA AND WE STILL EXPECTED THE MERCURY
TO FALL INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

WILL ISSUE UPDATE SHORTLY AFTER 7 PM.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL WORK ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY FOR THE
CSV AREA. OTW...PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS REMAINING NEAR CSV OVERNIGHT. DRY AND PCLDY SKIES CAN THEN
BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........31
LONG TERM..................21




000
FXUS64 KMRX 042332
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
732 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION
EARLY...THEN AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE IN. WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS
AROUND AT TIMES...BUT DIFFICULT TO TIME OTHER THAN THE BAND WITH
THE FRONT. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME THUNDER MAINLY CHA WITH THE
FRONTAL BAND. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
PREDOMINANT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOWER CONDITIONS IN ANY
HEAVIER OR PERSISTENT SHOWERS. WILL GO WITH VFR TAFS FOR NOW.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMEG 042315
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
615 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER CONTIGUOUS U.S.
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. IN THE INTERIM...A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL LIFT
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...TO THE MIDATLANTIC COAST. THE
MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE TO NO CHANCES OF RAIN FOLLOWING THIS
AFTERNOON/S SHOWERS EAST OF MEMPHIS.

THE OMEGA BLOCK WILL BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY...AS THE EASTERN U.S.
UPPER LOW IS OVERTAKEN BY NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW BRIEF UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD INTO
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...BRINING WARMER AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPS
TO THE MIDSOUTH THIS WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL DOWNSTREAM FROM AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE
MIDSOUTH BY EARLY MONDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES ARE EJECTED FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. PERSISTENT
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR CONTINUED
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...MODULATED BY
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES LIFTING INTO
THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

LINGERING SHRAS NEAR KTUP WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. STRATO-CU AROUND 4000-5000 FT
WILL LIKELY BEGIN REDEVELOPING AROUND 15Z. EXPECT KMKL AND KTUP TO
GO BKN BETWEEN 18-21Z. STRONG AND GUSTY N-NW WINDS BEHIND COLD
FRONT WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT THEN PICK BACK UP AROUND 15Z.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 16-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 28 KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

KRM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 042302
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
602 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH SHARPENING OVER THE MID WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WORKING DOWN BACKSIDE AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DEVELOP A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS OUR AREA BY TONIGHT. AM SEEING SHOWER ACTIVITY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AT 1 PM CDT IN A BAND ACROSS NORTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS ACTIVTIY WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTHEASTWARD
AND EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS AFTERNOON SUN
HEATS UP LOWER TROPOSPHERE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. COULD SEE A
SMALL HAILER OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS ALOFT ARE COLDER THAN
-20 CELSIUS AT 500 MBARS WITH MUCAPES AROUND 500 JOULES PER
KILOGRAM. SHOULD SEE SHOWER/TSTRMS END EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF
PLATEAU BUT WILL KEEP A CHANCE GOING ALONG THE PLATEAU THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AS COLD POOL WORKS ACROSS THAT AREA. CLOSED LOW
WILL MOVE EAST OF MID STATE ON THURSDAY BUT STILL COULD SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON BACKSIDE OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE MID STATE
DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PLATEAU. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THEN DRY
FOR ALL OF THE MID STATE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH
BEFORE RETREATING AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY. CENTRAL PLAINS
CYCLONE UNDERGOES CYCLOGENSIS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WHILE MOVING
THIS WAY SO EXPECT TO SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RAMP UP
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST AND ACROSS ALL OF THE MID STATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOWS TONIGHT DOWN IN THE LOW 40S IN THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND TO MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY MIDDLE 50S
ALONG THE PLATEAU TO MIDDLE 60S WEST OF THE PLATEAU. HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH UPPER 70S
ALONG THE PLATEAU. LOWS NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL WORK ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY FOR THE
CSV AREA. OTW...PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS REMAINING NEAR CSV OVERNIGHT. DRY AND PCLDY SKIES CAN THEN
BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........21
LONG TERM..................17




000
FXUS64 KOHX 042302
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
602 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH SHARPENING OVER THE MID WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WORKING DOWN BACKSIDE AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DEVELOP A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS OUR AREA BY TONIGHT. AM SEEING SHOWER ACTIVITY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AT 1 PM CDT IN A BAND ACROSS NORTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS ACTIVTIY WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTHEASTWARD
AND EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS AFTERNOON SUN
HEATS UP LOWER TROPOSPHERE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. COULD SEE A
SMALL HAILER OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS ALOFT ARE COLDER THAN
-20 CELSIUS AT 500 MBARS WITH MUCAPES AROUND 500 JOULES PER
KILOGRAM. SHOULD SEE SHOWER/TSTRMS END EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF
PLATEAU BUT WILL KEEP A CHANCE GOING ALONG THE PLATEAU THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AS COLD POOL WORKS ACROSS THAT AREA. CLOSED LOW
WILL MOVE EAST OF MID STATE ON THURSDAY BUT STILL COULD SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON BACKSIDE OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE MID STATE
DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PLATEAU. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THEN DRY
FOR ALL OF THE MID STATE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH
BEFORE RETREATING AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY. CENTRAL PLAINS
CYCLONE UNDERGOES CYCLOGENSIS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WHILE MOVING
THIS WAY SO EXPECT TO SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RAMP UP
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST AND ACROSS ALL OF THE MID STATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOWS TONIGHT DOWN IN THE LOW 40S IN THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND TO MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY MIDDLE 50S
ALONG THE PLATEAU TO MIDDLE 60S WEST OF THE PLATEAU. HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH UPPER 70S
ALONG THE PLATEAU. LOWS NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL WORK ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY FOR THE
CSV AREA. OTW...PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS REMAINING NEAR CSV OVERNIGHT. DRY AND PCLDY SKIES CAN THEN
BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........21
LONG TERM..................17




000
FXUS64 KMEG 042041
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
341 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER CONTIGUOUS U.S.
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. IN THE INTERIM...A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL LIFT
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...TO THE MIDATLANTIC COAST. THE
MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE TO NO CHANCES OF RAIN FOLLOWING THIS
AFTERNOON/S SHOWERS EAST OF MEMPHIS.

THE OMEGA BLOCK WILL BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY...AS THE EASTERN U.S.
UPPER LOW IS OVERTAKEN BY NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW BRIEF UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD INTO
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...BRINING WARMER AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPS
TO THE MIDSOUTH THIS WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL DOWNSTREAM FROM AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE
MIDSOUTH BY EARLY MONDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES ARE EJECTED FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. PERSISTENT
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR CONTINUED
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...MODULATED BY
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES LIFTING INTO
THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT BUT THEN INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 041923
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
223 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH SHARPENING OVER THE MID WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WORKING DOWN BACKSIDE AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DEVELOP A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS OUR AREA BY TONIGHT. AM SEEING SHOWER ACTIVITY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AT 1 PM CDT IN A BAND ACROSS NORTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS ACTIVTIY WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTHEASTWARD
AND EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS AFTERNOON SUN
HEATS UP LOWER TROPOSPHERE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. COULD SEE A
SMALL HAILER OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS ALOFT ARE COLDER THAN
-20 CELSIUS AT 500 MBARS WITH MUCAPES AROUND 500 JOULES PER
KILOGRAM. SHOULD SEE SHOWER/TSTRMS END EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF
PLATEAU BUT WILL KEEP A CHANCE GOING ALONG THE PLATEAU THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AS COLD POOL WORKS ACROSS THAT AREA. CLOSED LOW
WILL MOVE EAST OF MID STATE ON THURSDAY BUT STILL COULD SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON BACKSIDE OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE MID STATE
DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PLATEAU. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THEN DRY
FOR ALL OF THE MID STATE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH
BEFORE RETREATING AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY. CENTRAL PLAINS
CYCLONE UNDERGOES CYCLOGENSIS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WHILE MOVING
THIS WAY SO EXPECT TO SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RAMP UP
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST AND ACROSS ALL OF THE MID STATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOWS TONIGHT DOWN IN THE LOW 40S IN THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND TO MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY MIDDLE 50S
ALONG THE PLATEAU TO MIDDLE 60S WEST OF THE PLATEAU. HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH UPPER 70S
ALONG THE PLATEAU. LOWS NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
FIRST IMPACT KCKV BY MID TO LATE MORNING...KBNA BY LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND KCSV DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND EXIT
THE REGION TOWARDS THE EAST EARLY IN THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN TO KCKV AND KBNA BY 00Z AND KCSV THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE STRONG TODAY OUT OF THE WEST THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD CALM DOWN A BIT THIS EVENING BUT LOOK TO
REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      46  63  47  73  53 /  20  10   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    44  62  46  71  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     42  54  45  66  50 /  50  20  10   0   0
COLUMBIA       45  64  46  71  52 /  20   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   44  63  46  72  51 /  20   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        46  63  47  72  53 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........HURLEY
LONG TERM..................01/BOYD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 041912
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
312 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
A SHARP COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND
NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AND TRACKING TOWARD THE PLATEAU...
EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA AS
WELL...MAKING INTO THE PLATEAU BETWEEN 19-20Z...AND SPREADING
ACROSS THE MRX CWA BETWEEN 21-03Z. GIVEN THE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
IN PLACE /7 TO 7.5 DEG C PER KM/...AND THE COLD AIR ALOFT...SOME
SMALL HAIL IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH SOME
BREEZY TO GUSTY GRADIENT WNW WINDS.

AFTER SUNSET...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE IN WAKE OF THE
INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE UPPER-PARENT LOW ROTATES SOUTH INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE HEIGHT OF THE MELTING LEVEL WILL
DROP TO AROUND 4000-4500 FEET OVERNIGHT...TRANSITIONING ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS TO SNOW LATER TONIGHT.
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR SOME 1 TO 2 INCH
SNOWFALL TO OCCUR AT THE VERY TOP OF THE MOUNTAINS /ABOVE 5000
FEET/...SO HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
VERY LOCALIZED TERRAIN DRIVEN SNOWFALL.

A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THEN...ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND DENSE
CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE IN...THANKS TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOBE OF COLD
AIR...ROTATING INTO THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT...BUT THE PRECIPITATION...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 55 TO 60
DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EASTERN U.S. UPPER LOW SHIFTS VERY SLOWLY EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD TO A POSITION OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND SOME SHORT
WAVE LIFT IN A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THIS EARLY
PART OF THE FORECAST FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE. THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM GRADUALLY
INCREASES FROM NORTHERN SECTIONS INCLUDING SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE THROUGH CENTRAL EAST TENNESSEE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS A SHORT WAVE DRIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIP FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY REQUIRING
THE ADJUSTMENT TO MEDIUM CHANCE POPS. THIS BOUNDARY PRESSES BACK TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THERE SHOULD
BE A RELATIVE MIN IN PROBABILITY OF PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY DRIVING ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM THROUGH THE MID SOUTH. THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL RAMP
UP AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             46  62  49  72 /  50  20  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  44  57  47  68 /  80  50  30  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       44  58  47  69 /  80  50  30  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              42  55  45  61 /  90  70  60  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP/TH




000
FXUS64 KOHX 041755
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1255 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS HAVE YET TO PRODUCE MUCH OF
THE WAY OF LIGHTNING SO FAR AND LOOK TO ALMOST BE ON A WEAKENING
TREND. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S
SO FAR...BUT WITH CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MOVING IN...THINK
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY AND/OR FALL A FEW DEGREES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

WITH THAT SAID...BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS BUT LEFT THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION FORECAST
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH -RA POSSIBLE THROUGH 23Z AT ALL TERMINALS. DO NOT THINK -RA
WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO IMPACT VISIBILITIES OR CEILINGS. MVFR
CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........HURLEY
LONG TERM..................HURLEY




000
FXUS64 KOHX 041755
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1255 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS HAVE YET TO PRODUCE MUCH OF
THE WAY OF LIGHTNING SO FAR AND LOOK TO ALMOST BE ON A WEAKENING
TREND. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S
SO FAR...BUT WITH CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MOVING IN...THINK
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY AND/OR FALL A FEW DEGREES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

WITH THAT SAID...BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS BUT LEFT THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION FORECAST
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH -RA POSSIBLE THROUGH 23Z AT ALL TERMINALS. DO NOT THINK -RA
WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO IMPACT VISIBILITIES OR CEILINGS. MVFR
CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........HURLEY
LONG TERM..................HURLEY




000
FXUS64 KMEG 041733
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1233 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY... A TRANQUIL MORNING IS ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AREAWIDE WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS FROM THE WSW UNDER CLEAR SKIES. 08Z H5
ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE
MIDSOUTH AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. MEANWHILE SURFACE
ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE FA WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NNE OVER MICHIGAN WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD OVER NE
NORTH CAROLINA.

AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NNE OF THE REGION MIGRATES
SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 15-20 MPH
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FEATURE. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE FAR EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS NEAREST THE TN RIVER WILL HOLD THE BEST
CHANCES OF ANY PRECIPITATION...WITH AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF THE MS
RIVER LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE
LOWER 70S TODAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ABNORMALLY COOL FOR EARLY MAY
ONLY IN THE 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THURSDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW
RESIDING JUST EAST OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE. THE PATTERN ALOFT DEVELOPS INTO AN OMEGA
BLOCK PATTERN BY LATE THURSDAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS ENTRENCHED
LEEWARD OF THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AND
ANOTHER COMING ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH
BY EARLY FRIDAY...INITIATING A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ON A BEAUTIFUL FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS INVOF THE REGION WILL WARM NICELY TO THE LOW 80S
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
REGION ALLOWING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES TO PROGRESS TOWARD
THE REGION. SUBSEQUENTLY THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER MOVES SE AND
WINDS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ENSUE AS A LOW DEEPENS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SUCH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
RETURN ON MONDAY AND INCREASE BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY TO MID MAY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT BUT THEN INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 041703 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
103 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
BORDERLINE MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO AREA...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. -SHRA/-RA WILL IMPACT EACH
SITE BETWEEN 22-23Z THROUGH 03-05Z TIME PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
BRING LOCALIZED MVFR VIS/CIGS. LATER ON TONIGHT...VIS/CIGS WILL
DROP TO PREVAILING MVFR TO IFR AT KTRI...WHILE LOW VFR CIGS WILL
REMAIN AT KTYS/KCHA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KOHX 041623
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1123 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS HAVE YET TO PRODUCE MUCH OF
THE WAY OF LIGHTNING SO FAR AND LOOK TO ALMOST BE ON A WEAKENING
TREND. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S
SO FAR...BUT WITH CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MOVING IN...THINK
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY AND/OR FALL A FEW DEGREES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

WITH THAT SAID...BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS BUT LEFT THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION FORECAST
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
FIRST IMPACT KCKV BY MID TO LATE MORNING...KBNA BY LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND KCSV DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND EXIT
THE REGION TOWARDS THE EAST EARLY IN THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN TO KCKV AND KBNA BY 00Z AND KCSV THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE STRONG TODAY OUT OF THE WEST THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD CALM DOWN A BIT THIS EVENING BUT LOOK TO
REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 041350 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
950 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A CANADIAN FRONT IS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING AS IT`S PARENT UPPER-LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
BOTH THESE FEATURES WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOOKING AT THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...THIS FRONT
AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PLATEAU BETWEEN 18-21Z...AND MOVING
ACROSS THE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 21-03Z. THE PRIMARY MODE OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS...BUT GIVEN THE VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES /7 TO 7.5 DEG C PER KM/...SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER AND SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO
LINGER ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THE VERY
TOP OF THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS /ABOVE 5000 FEET/. HAVE AN SPS TO
ADDRESS THESE NEEDS. OVERALL..A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             71  47  63  48 /  70  50  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  45  58  46 /  70  80  50  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       67  46  59  47 /  80  80  40  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              64  43  56  46 /  70  90  70  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 041350 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
950 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A CANADIAN FRONT IS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING AS IT`S PARENT UPPER-LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
BOTH THESE FEATURES WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOOKING AT THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...THIS FRONT
AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PLATEAU BETWEEN 18-21Z...AND MOVING
ACROSS THE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 21-03Z. THE PRIMARY MODE OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS...BUT GIVEN THE VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES /7 TO 7.5 DEG C PER KM/...SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER AND SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO
LINGER ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THE VERY
TOP OF THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS /ABOVE 5000 FEET/. HAVE AN SPS TO
ADDRESS THESE NEEDS. OVERALL..A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             71  47  63  48 /  70  50  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  45  58  46 /  70  80  50  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       67  46  59  47 /  80  80  40  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              64  43  56  46 /  70  90  70  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KOHX 041141
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
641 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHY OF A FEW REMAINING CLOUDS OVER THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AS THE FIRST OF OUR TWO SHORTWAVES TRAVERSES
THE STATE THIS MORNING. THE FIRST DIDN`T PRODUCE ANYTHING BUT THE
SECOND WILL AS IT IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE POTENT. AS PART OF THE
OVERALL LONGWAVE WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THIS SECOND
SHORTWAVE IS ALREADY GATHERING STEAM IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE BIGGER TROUGH AND DIVES INTO THE
SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...A SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC CHANGE WILL
TAKE PLACE. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT /-21 DEGREES CELSIUS/ WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION CAUSING VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. COUPLED
WITH THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE RESULT WILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE VERY LIKELY TO
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED MENTION OF THIS
IN THE ZONES...HOWEVER BECAUSE THIS IS SUB-SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WHILE
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE MID-STATE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WANE
EARLY THIS EVENING.

THIS SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC CHANGE WILL NOT COME WITHOUT AFFECTING
OUR TEMPERATURES.  HIGHS AND LOWS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL
BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE...STARTING TODAY.  CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE IS
PUSHING 74 DEGREES TODAY BUT WITH THE CLOUDS, RAIN, NW FLOW ALOFT
AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OUT OF THE NORTH...I JUST DON`T SEE THIS
HAPPENING.  WILL KEEP EVERYBODY IN THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WON`T BE ANY DIFFERENT TONIGHT WITH EVERYONE DIVING INTO THE
40S.  I`M NOT TOO CRAZY ABOUT THE PLATEAU REACHING 40 WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...BUT LOWER 40S ARE LIKELY.  THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE
SOME OF THE COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WE`VE SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS AS
CLOUDS AND NW FLOW PERSIST. LOW TO MIDDLE 60S AND 50S ON THE
PLATEAU ARE LIKELY TO BE THE STORY.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF.  80S SHOULD RETURN BY SATURDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS IN SIGHT AFTER TODAY UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.  I`M STILL NOT SOLD ON THIS WEAK FRONT PRODUCING ANY PRECIP IN
THE SUN-MON TIME FRAME SO WHILE I`LL KEEP A VERY SMALL POP ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...LOOK FOR OUR NEXT SHOT AT ANY
WIDESPREAD RAIN ON WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
FIRST IMPACT KCKV BY MID TO LATE MORNING...KBNA BY LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND KCSV DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND EXIT
THE REGION TOWARDS THE EAST EARLY IN THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN TO KCKV AND KBNA BY 00Z AND KCSV THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE STRONG TODAY OUT OF THE WEST THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD CALM DOWN A BIT THIS EVENING BUT LOOK TO
REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......UNGER
AVIATION........BARNWELL




000
FXUS64 KOHX 041141
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
641 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHY OF A FEW REMAINING CLOUDS OVER THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AS THE FIRST OF OUR TWO SHORTWAVES TRAVERSES
THE STATE THIS MORNING. THE FIRST DIDN`T PRODUCE ANYTHING BUT THE
SECOND WILL AS IT IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE POTENT. AS PART OF THE
OVERALL LONGWAVE WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THIS SECOND
SHORTWAVE IS ALREADY GATHERING STEAM IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE BIGGER TROUGH AND DIVES INTO THE
SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...A SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC CHANGE WILL
TAKE PLACE. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT /-21 DEGREES CELSIUS/ WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION CAUSING VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. COUPLED
WITH THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE RESULT WILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE VERY LIKELY TO
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED MENTION OF THIS
IN THE ZONES...HOWEVER BECAUSE THIS IS SUB-SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WHILE
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE MID-STATE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WANE
EARLY THIS EVENING.

THIS SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC CHANGE WILL NOT COME WITHOUT AFFECTING
OUR TEMPERATURES.  HIGHS AND LOWS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL
BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE...STARTING TODAY.  CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE IS
PUSHING 74 DEGREES TODAY BUT WITH THE CLOUDS, RAIN, NW FLOW ALOFT
AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OUT OF THE NORTH...I JUST DON`T SEE THIS
HAPPENING.  WILL KEEP EVERYBODY IN THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WON`T BE ANY DIFFERENT TONIGHT WITH EVERYONE DIVING INTO THE
40S.  I`M NOT TOO CRAZY ABOUT THE PLATEAU REACHING 40 WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...BUT LOWER 40S ARE LIKELY.  THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE
SOME OF THE COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WE`VE SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS AS
CLOUDS AND NW FLOW PERSIST. LOW TO MIDDLE 60S AND 50S ON THE
PLATEAU ARE LIKELY TO BE THE STORY.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF.  80S SHOULD RETURN BY SATURDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS IN SIGHT AFTER TODAY UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.  I`M STILL NOT SOLD ON THIS WEAK FRONT PRODUCING ANY PRECIP IN
THE SUN-MON TIME FRAME SO WHILE I`LL KEEP A VERY SMALL POP ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...LOOK FOR OUR NEXT SHOT AT ANY
WIDESPREAD RAIN ON WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
FIRST IMPACT KCKV BY MID TO LATE MORNING...KBNA BY LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND KCSV DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND EXIT
THE REGION TOWARDS THE EAST EARLY IN THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN TO KCKV AND KBNA BY 00Z AND KCSV THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE STRONG TODAY OUT OF THE WEST THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD CALM DOWN A BIT THIS EVENING BUT LOOK TO
REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......UNGER
AVIATION........BARNWELL




000
FXUS64 KMEG 041131
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
631 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY... A TRANQUIL MORNING IS ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AREAWIDE WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS FROM THE WSW UNDER CLEAR SKIES. 08Z H5
ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE
MIDSOUTH AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. MEANWHILE SURFACE
ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE FA WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NNE OVER MICHIGAN WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD OVER NE
NORTH CAROLINA.

AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NNE OF THE REGION MIGRATES
SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 15-20 MPH
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FEATURE. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE FAR EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS NEAREST THE TN RIVER WILL HOLD THE BEST
CHANCES OF ANY PRECIPITATION...WITH AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF THE MS
RIVER LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE
LOWER 70S TODAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ABNORMALLY COOL FOR EARLY MAY
ONLY IN THE 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THURSDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW
RESIDING JUST EAST OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE. THE PATTERN ALOFT DEVELOPS INTO AN OMEGA
BLOCK PATTERN BY LATE THURSDAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS ENTRENCHED
LEEWARD OF THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AND
ANOTHER COMING ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH
BY EARLY FRIDAY...INITIATING A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ON A BEAUTIFUL FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS INVOF THE REGION WILL WARM NICELY TO THE LOW 80S
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
REGION ALLOWING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES TO PROGRESS TOWARD
THE REGION. SUBSEQUENTLY THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER MOVES SE AND
WINDS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ENSUE AS A LOW DEEPENS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SUCH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
RETURN ON MONDAY AND INCREASE BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY TO MID MAY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

ZDM


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS ONGOING THIS MORNING WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
SCT TO BKN SKIES EXPECTED AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT KMKL AND KTUP AS A
RESULT. WINDS FROM THE WEST WILL BECOME MORE WNW AND STRONG THIS
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 28 KTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY AFTER SUNSET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 041127
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
727 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.AVIATION...BKN CIGS ALREADY CLEARED OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...BUT HOLDING IN AT TRI. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED SINCE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION. COLD FRONT STILL SET TO MOVE IN LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING BRINING ANOTHER ROUND OF BKN CIGS...ALONG WITH SOME
BREEZY/GUSTY NW WINDS. MODELS STILL AGREEING THAT A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REACH TAF SITES AROUND 00Z. FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AROUND 03Z BUT PRECIP LINGERS AT TRI THROUGH THE
PERIOD. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCTS IN TAFS DUE TO
QUESTIONS ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AS FREEZING HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING IN WITH TROUGH.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 041127
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
727 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.AVIATION...BKN CIGS ALREADY CLEARED OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...BUT HOLDING IN AT TRI. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED SINCE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION. COLD FRONT STILL SET TO MOVE IN LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING BRINING ANOTHER ROUND OF BKN CIGS...ALONG WITH SOME
BREEZY/GUSTY NW WINDS. MODELS STILL AGREEING THAT A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REACH TAF SITES AROUND 00Z. FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AROUND 03Z BUT PRECIP LINGERS AT TRI THROUGH THE
PERIOD. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCTS IN TAFS DUE TO
QUESTIONS ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AS FREEZING HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING IN WITH TROUGH.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




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