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000
FXUS64 KMEG 301452
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
952 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY HAS CAUSED
FOR A COOL CLEAR MORNING THROUGHOUT THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE REGION AS OF
1030 AM... EXCEPT NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER WHERE READINGS IN THE
40S CAN STILL BE FOUND. FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK... ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE. DECREASED HIGHS FOR THURSDAY 1 DEGREE AREA
WIDE AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS BEFORE 00Z FOR OUR NORTHERN-MOST
COUNTIES DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

JPM3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING PLACES A 1021 MB RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING.
THIS IS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
TEMPERATURES AS OF 4 AM CDT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE
TENNESSEE RIVER AND 40S ELSEWHERE. RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT...FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST
ARE THE PREDOMINANT CHALLENGES IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S INTO THE
40S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND APPROACHING CURRENT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. THUS...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE ACROSS MANY
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT TODAY. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND PERHAPS THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL FILTER INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND 40S TO LOWER 50S ON SATURDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA. THESE LOW
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LIGHT/NEARLY CALM WINDS MAY RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST AND POSSIBLY A FREEZE. LATER SHIFTS WILL
CONSIDER FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE IN
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A SLOWER PROGRESSION ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FRONT
BECOMES NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MINIMAL AT BEST AND KEPT THUNDER
MENTION TO A MINIMUM. LONG TERM MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THIS FRONT BUT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
AT THIS POINT WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

CJC

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES AFTER 06Z AT JBR... A FEW HOURS LATER AT MEM.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMRX 301425
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1025 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALING AREAS
OF FOG ALONG MANY OF THE RIVERS THIS MORNING. THIS FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY ERODE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...BUT
WILL UPDATE LATER THIS MORNING TO REMOVE MENTION OF MORNING FOG.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             64  41  62  35 /   0   0  30  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  61  39  59  33 /   0   0  60  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       62  39  58  33 /   0   0  60  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              58  35  56  32 /   0   0  80  90
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     UNICOI.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-WISE.
&&

$$

DMG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 301138
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
738 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...SOME VLIFR FLIGHT WEATHER AT TRI THIS MORNING WITH SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS AT TYS. THE FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AT TRI AND MAY
BE GONE BY 13Z AT TYS. AFTER THIS CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WITH A FEW AC BUILDING IN LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     UNICOI.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMEG 301133 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
633 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING PLACES A 1021 MB RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING.
THIS IS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
TEMPERATURES AS OF 4 AM CDT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE
TENNESSEE RIVER AND 40S ELSEWHERE. RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT...FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST
ARE THE PREDOMINANT CHALLENGES IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S INTO THE
40S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND APPROACHING CURRENT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. THUS...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE ACROSS MANY
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT TODAY. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND PERHAPS THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL FILTER INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND 40S TO LOWER 50S ON SATURDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA. THESE LOW
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LIGHT/NEARLY CALM WINDS MAY RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST AND POSSIBLY A FREEZE. LATER SHIFTS WILL
CONSIDER FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE IN
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A SLOWER PROGRESSION ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FRONT
BECOMES NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MINIMAL AT BEST AND KEPT THUNDER
MENTION TO A MINIMUM. LONG TERM MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THIS FRONT BUT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
AT THIS POINT WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES AFTER 06Z AT JBR... A FEW HOURS LATER AT MEM.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOHX 301102
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
602 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME PATCHY FOG NOTED ON IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING AROUND MID TN
BUT NONE AFFECTING AIRPORTS. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MVFR VIS
THROUGH 14Z BUT CHANCE APPEARS REMOTE. OTHERWISE...A FEW VFR
STRATOCU MAY DEVELOP TODAY WITH SOME CIRRUS ALSO SPREADING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH...WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 KT.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 40S TO START THE DAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH BROADENS OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. A
SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS TONIGHT. I HAVE PUT A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT MAINLY INTERSTATE 40 NORTHWARD...WITH THE
HIGHER POPS TO OUR NORTH WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE A LITTLE DEEPER
AND MORE LIFT. ON FRIDAY A BOWLING BALL TYPE FEATURE WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD FROM GREAT LAKES REGION AND DOWN THROUGH EASTERN
TENNESSEE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS
UPPER LOW WILL BE UNDERGOING CYCLOGENSIS AS IT DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR EASTERN AREAS AND PLATEAU. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. I`VE KEPT HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE
50`S BUT FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES MAY TOUCH 60 BRIEFLY BEFORE
FROPA. HALLOWEEN LATE NIGHT GETS INTERESTING FAR EASTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND PLATEAU...ESPECIALLY UPPER CUMBERLAND AS COLD CORE
CYCLOGENIC UPPER LOW CENTER PASSES JUST EAST OF MY CWA. WITH
SURFACE TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOW 30S EXPECT TO GET REPORTS OF SOME
LIGHT SNOW. COULD SEE A DUSTING IN THAT UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FENTRESS COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE AROUND FREEZING IN MANY AREAS BUT WINDS
WILL STAY UP KEEPING FROST OUT. CHILLY DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. COULD SEE A FEW MORNING FLURRIES IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY NEED A FREEZE WARNING SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF
THE MID STATE. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THIS WAY FROM PLAINS ON SUNDAY
AND WILL DOMNATE UNTIL FRONT APPROACHES MID WEEK BRINGING SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KOHX 301102
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
602 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME PATCHY FOG NOTED ON IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING AROUND MID TN
BUT NONE AFFECTING AIRPORTS. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MVFR VIS
THROUGH 14Z BUT CHANCE APPEARS REMOTE. OTHERWISE...A FEW VFR
STRATOCU MAY DEVELOP TODAY WITH SOME CIRRUS ALSO SPREADING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH...WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 KT.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 40S TO START THE DAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH BROADENS OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. A
SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS TONIGHT. I HAVE PUT A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT MAINLY INTERSTATE 40 NORTHWARD...WITH THE
HIGHER POPS TO OUR NORTH WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE A LITTLE DEEPER
AND MORE LIFT. ON FRIDAY A BOWLING BALL TYPE FEATURE WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD FROM GREAT LAKES REGION AND DOWN THROUGH EASTERN
TENNESSEE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS
UPPER LOW WILL BE UNDERGOING CYCLOGENSIS AS IT DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR EASTERN AREAS AND PLATEAU. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. I`VE KEPT HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE
50`S BUT FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES MAY TOUCH 60 BRIEFLY BEFORE
FROPA. HALLOWEEN LATE NIGHT GETS INTERESTING FAR EASTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND PLATEAU...ESPECIALLY UPPER CUMBERLAND AS COLD CORE
CYCLOGENIC UPPER LOW CENTER PASSES JUST EAST OF MY CWA. WITH
SURFACE TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOW 30S EXPECT TO GET REPORTS OF SOME
LIGHT SNOW. COULD SEE A DUSTING IN THAT UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FENTRESS COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE AROUND FREEZING IN MANY AREAS BUT WINDS
WILL STAY UP KEEPING FROST OUT. CHILLY DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. COULD SEE A FEW MORNING FLURRIES IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY NEED A FREEZE WARNING SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF
THE MID STATE. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THIS WAY FROM PLAINS ON SUNDAY
AND WILL DOMNATE UNTIL FRONT APPROACHES MID WEEK BRINGING SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KMEG 300916
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
416 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING PLACES A 1021 MB RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING.
THIS IS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
TEMPERATURES AS OF 4 AM CDT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE
TENNESSEE RIVER AND 40S ELSEWHERE. RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT...FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST
ARE THE PREDOMINANT CHALLENGES IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S INTO THE
40S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND APPROACHING CURRENT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. THUS...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE ACROSS MANY
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT TODAY. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND PERHAPS THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL FILTER INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND 40S TO LOWER 50S ON SATURDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA. THESE LOW
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LIGHT/NEARLY CALM WINDS MAY RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST AND POSSIBLY A FREEZE. LATER SHIFTS WILL
CONSIDER FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE IN
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A SLOWER PROGRESSION ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FRONT
BECOMES NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MINIMAL AT BEST AND KEPT THUNDER
MENTION TO A MINIMUM. LONG TERM MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THIS FRONT BUT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
AT THIS POINT WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

CJC
&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH FOG
DEVELOPMENT STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS MKL AND
TUP. CURRENTLY EXPECTING INTERMITTENT VSBY REDUCTIONS BEGINNING
AROUND 08Z LASTING THROUGH 12Z. FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY
THEREAFTER WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 300754
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
254 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 40S TO START THE DAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH BROADENS OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. A
SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS TONIGHT. I HAVE PUT A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT MAINLY INTERSTATE 40 NORTHWARD...WITH THE
HIGHER POPS TO OUR NORTH WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE A LITTLE DEEPER
AND MORE LIFT. ON FRIDAY A BOWLING BALL TYPE FEATURE WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD FROM GREAT LAKES REGION AND DOWN THROUGH EASTERN
TENNESSEE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS
UPPER LOW WILL BE UNDERGOING CYCLOGENSIS AS IT DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR EASTERN AREAS AND PLATEAU. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. I`VE KEPT HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE
50`S BUT FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES MAY TOUCH 60 BRIEFLY BEFORE
FROPA. HALLOWEEN LATE NIGHT GETS INTERESTING FAR EASTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND PLATEAU...ESPECIALLY UPPER CUMBERLAND AS COLD CORE
CYCLOGENIC UPPER LOW CENTER PASSES JUST EAST OF MY CWA. WITH
SURFACE TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOW 30S EXPECT TO GET REPORTS OF SOME
LIGHT SNOW. COULD SEE A DUSTING IN THAT UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FENTRESS COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE AROUND FREEZING IN MANY AREAS BUT WINDS
WILL STAY UP KEEPING FROST OUT. CHILLY DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. COULD SEE A FEW MORNING FLURRIES IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY NEED A FREEZE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY AS TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF THE MID
STATE. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THIS WAY FROM PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND WILL
DOMNATE UNTIL FRONT APPROACHES MID WEEK BRINGING SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      61  44  54  33 /  05  20  40  10
CLARKSVILLE    62  43  52  31 /  05  30  40  10
CROSSVILLE     58  38  51  30 /  05  10  50  30
COLUMBIA       62  43  56  33 /  05  10  20  10
LAWRENCEBURG   63  42  58  32 /  05  10  20  05
WAVERLY        62  43  53  31 /  05  20  30  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KMRX 300754
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
350 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...RADIATION IN THE CLEAR SKY AND
CALM WIND ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH MOIST CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE HAS
ALLOWED SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM. SOME OF THE FOG IS DENSE NEAR WATER
BODIES AND WILL DISSIPATE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SO ADDED A
BIT OF THIS IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY TODAY
WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
INTO THE EASTERN U.S. TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE APPROACH
AND WE MAY SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO ON THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
JUST BEFORE 12Z. STAYED QUITE CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF MOS NUMBERS FOR
MAX AND MIN TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD LIGHT RAIN INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING...THEN THE MAIN CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO
HAVE AN IMPACT FRIDAY EVENING. PEAK QG FORCING AND FRONTAL PASSAGE
OCCUR IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME...WHICH IS WHEN WE SHOULD SEE A
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A FAVORABLE NW FLOW
SNOW PATTERN SETS UP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
UPSLOPE WINDS AROUND 25 KTS... STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE THROUGH THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON LOCAL TERRAIN. DECREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BRING LOWERING POPS AND QPF BY
SATURDAY EVENING.

A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR OUR TN MOUNTAIN ZONES AS
WELL AS WISE...RUSSELL AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN VA WITH WORDING TO
SPECIFY ELEVATIONS 2500 FT AND HIGHER. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ABOVE
THAT LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES...WITH AROUND A
FOOT IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SMOKIES. THIS IS A BIT BELOW THE
NAM SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO ACCOUNT FOR INITIAL MELTING WITH THE
RELATIVELY WARM GROUND THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FEW CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE AN APPROACHING TROUGH/FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             64  41  62  35 /   0   0  30  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  61  39  59  33 /   0  10  60  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       62  39  58  33 /   0  10  60  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              58  35  56  32 /   0   0  80  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     UNICOI.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

20/24




000
FXUS64 KMRX 300539
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
139 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...DRIER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM
ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...EARLY THIS MORNING THE NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS IS BECOMING
SATURATED WITH FOG FORMING NEAR WATERWAYS AND OTHER LOW LYING
AREAS. VLIFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AT TRI AND EXPECT THIS
TERMINAL TO HOLD IN AN VLIFR TO LIFR STATE THROUGH DAYBREAK. ALSO
TYS MAY DROP INTO MVFR CONDITIONS AS WILL THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMEG 300433
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1133 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 835 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL HELP TEMPS DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN THE COOLER SPOTS TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. A LITTLE
WARMER IN MEMPHIS. PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NEAR THE
TN RIVER AND NE MS. TWEAKED TEMPS IN A COUPLE SPOTS OTRW FORECAST
ON TRACK.

SJM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS EXTENDS A COLD FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. SKIES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

AS THE HIGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTS EAST OVER
OUR REGION ON THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE FROM THE
SOUTH BY MID AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT APPROACH THE
REGION. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS
ARE GREEDY WITH MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
SLIGHT POPS FOR THE EXTREME NORTHEAST REGIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. OTHERWISE CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY AS A POTENT
SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE RESULTANT STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED WINDS FOR FRIDAY AS MUCH COOLER
AIR FILTERS INTO THE MIDSOUTH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CREATE PLEASANT AND RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE AREA...THUS SOME
AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE A FROST OR POTENTIALLY EVEN A FREEZE. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S...BUT WILL WARM INTO THE 60S ON
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY...BRINGING OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN. GUIDANCE IS SLOW WITH THIS FRONT...THUS HAVE
INCLUDED POPS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH FOG
DEVELOPMENT STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS MKL AND
TUP. CURRENTLY EXPECTING INTERMITTENT VSBY REDUCTIONS BEGINNING
AROUND 08Z LASTING THROUGH 12Z. FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY
THEREAFTER WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KOHX 300359
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1059 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIST OVER THE MID STATE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY, WITH SFC WINDS BLO 10KTS AND
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FOG AT CKV AND CSV BTWN 10Z AND 13Z
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME MVFR VSBY, AND POSSIBLY EVEN LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS AT CKV. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE THURSDAY
EVENING, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID-TO-HIGH CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY AFTER
18Z. BY 02Z EXPECT BKN-TO-OVC CIGS BTWN 12K AND 25K FT. HOWEVER, NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/31.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KMRX 300218
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1018 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT GENERALLY
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN...PROVIDING A DRY NIGHT AND A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
SOME FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND CENTRAL. WILL
TWEAK SKY...TEMPS...AND DEW POINTS IN THE DATABASE...BUT NO MAJOR
CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             42  64  41  62 /   0   0   0  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  40  62  39  60 /   0   0  10  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       40  62  39  58 /   0   0  10  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              36  58  36  56 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMEG 300135
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
835 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL HELP TEMPS DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN THE COOLER SPOTS TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. A LITTLE
WARMER IN MEMPHIS. PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NEAR THE
TN RIVER AND NE MS. TWEAKED TEMPS IN A COUPLE SPOTS OTRW FORECAST
ON TRACK.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS EXTENDS A COLD FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. SKIES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

AS THE HIGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTS EAST OVER
OUR REGION ON THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE FROM THE
SOUTH BY MID AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT APPROACH THE
REGION. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS
ARE GREEDY WITH MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
SLIGHT POPS FOR THE EXTREME NORTHEAST REGIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. OTHERWISE CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY AS A POTENT
SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE RESULTANT STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED WINDS FOR FRIDAY AS MUCH COOLER
AIR FILTERS INTO THE MIDSOUTH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CREATE PLEASANT AND RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE AREA...THUS SOME
AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE A FROST OR POTENTIALLY EVEN A FREEZE. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S...BUT WILL WARM INTO THE 60S ON
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY...BRINGING OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN. GUIDANCE IS SLOW WITH THIS FRONT...THUS HAVE
INCLUDED POPS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH PATCHY
FOG AND INTERMITTENT REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS THE MAIN CONCERN...MOSTLY
AT THE MKL AND TUP TERMINALS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...FOG WILL LIFT
QUICKLY AFTER 12Z TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 300120
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
820 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER MID TN BY
DAYBREAK WITH CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
40. COLDER LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE NORTHERN TIER AND UPPER
CUMBERLAND REGION WILL HAVE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG...AND EVEN A FEW PATCHES OF FROST. THE ONLY
UPDATES FOR THIS EVENING ARE ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TRENDS AND
ADDING MENTION OF PATCHY FROST.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIST OVER THE MID STATE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY, WITH SFC WINDS BLO 10KTS AND
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FOG AT CKV AND CSV BTWN 10Z AND 13Z
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME MVFR VSBY, AND POSSIBLY EVEN LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS AT CKV. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH INTO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, SPREADING SOME BKN CI INTO THE CKV AREA
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

19

&&

327 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ON TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MID STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH DRY AIR
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ON THURSDAY A VIRTUALLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH AND BEGIN TO USHER IN COLDER AIR. ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHWARD AND MOVE ACROSS FAR EASTERN
TN BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT COLDER CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS WHERE THERE
MIGHT EVEN BE SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND
2200 FT MSL BY FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH LIGHT QPF
THROUGHOUT EASTERN MIDDLE TN. THEREFORE...WILL ELECT TO KEEP THE MIX
AND SNOW WORDING IN THE FCST FOR OUR EASTERN PLATEAU AREA.
THE CULPRIT IS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL BE DIVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS FAR EASTERN TN. THE SYSTEM CARRIES A SLIGHT
NEGATIVE TILT WITH A STRONG WIND MAX HELPING TO AID THE NEARLY DUE
SOUTH MOVEMENT. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE LEFT
OF THE TRACK AND WITHIN THE BETTER DEFORMATIONALLY DRIVEN AREA.
TIME HEIGHT DIAGRAMS OVER THE PLATEAU SHOWS MOISTURE EXTENDING
VERTICALLY TO JUST ABOVE 850 MB FOR FRIDAY EVENING.

OF BIGGER INTEREST...THERE IS AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF A FREEZE
THIS WEEKEND. FRIDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE
ELEVATED AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER KY WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. LOW TEMPS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL
REACH THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE AREA. NO FREEZE WATCH
JUST YET...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

OTW...FOR RECREATIONAL PURPOSES ON SATURDAY...IT LOOKS RATHER COLD
AND BLUSTERY COMPARED TO THE WEATHER WE`VE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY.
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 40S TO PERHAPS THE LOWER 50S. WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WHICH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL.

IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER RIDGING WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AND PROVIDE A
WARMING TREND. TEMPS WILL REACH AND THEN SURPASS SEASONAL LEVELS BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON TUES AND WED
AS A COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA LATE IN THE EXTENDED.

21

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 292344
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
644 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIST OVER THE MID STATE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY, WITH SFC WINDS BLO 10KTS AND
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FOG AT CKV AND CSV BTWN 10Z AND 13Z
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME MVFR VSBY, AND POSSIBLY EVEN LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS AT CKV. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH INTO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, SPREADING SOME BKN CI INTO THE CKV AREA
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KMRX 292320
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
720 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. GIVEN RECENT
RAIN AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AT
LEAST AT TRI. WILL PUT SOME DENSE FOG IN THE TAF FOR SEVERAL HOURS
AT TRI. THINK FOG MUCH LESS LIKELY AT CHA...SO WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS THERE. A BIT ON THE FENCE ABOUT FOG AT TYS...FOR NOW
TAKE VIS THERE NO LOWER THAN MVFR LEVELS.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMEG 292317
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
617 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS EXTENDS A COLD FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. SKIES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

AS THE HIGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTS EAST OVER
OUR REGION ON THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE FROM THE
SOUTH BY MID AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT APPROACH THE
REGION. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS
ARE GREEDY WITH MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
SLIGHT POPS FOR THE EXTREME NORTHEAST REGIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. OTHERWISE CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY AS A POTENT
SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE RESULTANT STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED WINDS FOR FRIDAY AS MUCH COOLER
AIR FILTERS INTO THE MIDSOUTH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CREATE PLEASANT AND RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE AREA...THUS SOME
AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE A FROST OR POTENTIALLY EVEN A FREEZE. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S...BUT WILL WARM INTO THE 60S ON
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY...BRINGING OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN. GUIDANCE IS SLOW WITH THIS FRONT...THUS HAVE
INCLUDED POPS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH PATCHY
FOG AND INTERMITTENT REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS THE MAIN CONCERN...MOSTLY
AT THE MKL AND TUP TERMINALS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...FOG WILL LIFT
QUICKLY AFTER 12Z TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 292054
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
354 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS EXTENDS A COLD FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. SKIES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

AS THE HIGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTS EAST OVER
OUR REGION ON THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE FROM THE
SOUTH BY MID AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT APPROACH THE
REGION. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS
ARE GREEDY WITH MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
SLIGHT POPS FOR THE EXTREME NORTHEAST REGIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. OTHERWISE CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY AS A POTENT
SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE RESULTANT STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED WINDS FOR FRIDAY AS MUCH COOLER
AIR FILTERS INTO THE MIDSOUTH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CREATE PLEASANT AND RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE AREA...THUS SOME
AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE A FROST OR POTENTIALLY EVEN A FREEZE. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S...BUT WILL WARM INTO THE 60S ON
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY...BRINGING OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN. GUIDANCE IS SLOW WITH THIS FRONT...THUS HAVE
INCLUDED POPS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH MORNING LIGHT FOG CAUSING
IFR/MVFR VISIBILITY AT MKL...TUP AND JBR. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 7-10
KTS WILL DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET...THEN VEER EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 292027
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
327 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ON TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MID STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH DRY AIR
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ON THURSDAY A VIRTUALLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH AND BEGIN TO USHER IN COLDER AIR. ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHWARD AND MOVE ACROSS FAR EASTERN
TN BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT COLDER CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS WHERE THERE
MIGHT EVEN BE SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND
2200 FT MSL BY FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH LIGHT QPF
THROUGHOUT EASTERN MIDDLE TN. THEREFORE...WILL ELECT TO KEEP THE MIX
AND SNOW WORDING IN THE FCST FOR OUR EASTERN PLATEAU AREA.
THE CULPRIT IS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL BE DIVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS FAR EASTERN TN. THE SYSTEM CARRIES A SLIGHT
NEGATIVE TILT WITH A STRONG WIND MAX HELPING TO AID THE NEARLY DUE
SOUTH MOVEMENT. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE LEFT
OF THE TRACK AND WITHIN THE BETTER DEFORMATIONALLY DRIVEN AREA.
TIME HEIGHT DIAGRAMS OVER THE PLATEAU SHOWS MOISTURE EXTENDING
VERTICALLY TO JUST ABOVE 850 MB FOR FRIDAY EVENING.

OF BIGGER INTEREST...THERE IS AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF A FREEZE
THIS WEEKEND. FRIDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE
ELEVATED AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER KY WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. LOW TEMPS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL
REACH THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE AREA. NO FREEZE WATCH
JUST YET...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

OTW...FOR RECREATIONAL PURPOSES ON SATURDAY...IT LOOKS RATHER COLD
AND BLUSTERY COMPARED TO THE WEATHER WE`VE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY.
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 40S TO PERHAPS THE LOWER 50S. WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WHICH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL.

IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER RIDGING WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AND PROVIDE A
WARMING TREND. TEMPS WILL REACH AND THEN SURPASS SEASONAL LEVELS BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON TUES AND WED
AS A COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA LATE IN THE EXTENDED.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      40  63  45  54 /  05  05  20  20
CLARKSVILLE    36  62  43  52 /  05  05  20  20
CROSSVILLE     37  57  40  54 /  05  05  05  30
COLUMBIA       40  64  45  56 /  05  05  10  10
LAWRENCEBURG   39  64  44  57 /  05  05  10  10
WAVERLY        37  63  44  53 /  05  05  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KMRX 291926
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
326 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER THE PIEDMONT REGION OF THE
CAROLINAS...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OVER A WET
GROUND TONIGHT...WILL ONLY MENTION PATCHY FOG (AND PATCHY FROST
FOR SOUTHWEST VA...NORTHEAST TN...THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS...AND
SOUTHWEST NC) DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT SINCE TEMPS MAY NOT BE ABLE
TO COMPLETELY FALL TO THE DEWPOINTS EVERYWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN SETTLE OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER
STRONGER COLD FRONT QUICKLY APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL COMPROMISE
WHERE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...CHANGES IN PATTERN FRIDAY AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
DIVES SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
NE OUT OF THE REGION SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND THEN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AS THE FREEZING
LEVEL DROPS WITH COLD AIR MASS BEHIND FRONT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY REACH SEVERAL INCHES IN THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD AND
ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. AREAS TO THE WEST IN THE VALLEY AND
PLATEAU ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY GET LIGHT AMOUNTS. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND
MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING BELOW 2500 FEET. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL DROP
BELOW FREEZING AND MAY NOT GO ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL SUNDAY. SATURDAY
WILL BE VERY COLD MOSTLY 30S AND 40S WITH CLOUDS AND LINGERING SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWERS. MOST AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO NEAR
FREEZING AND LOWER AS SKIES CLEAR FROM SW TO NE. A FREEZE WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. A SLOW WARMING TREND SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NE AND MOUNTAINS TO 50S SOUTH. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY STILL BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             41  64  41  62 /   0   0   0  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  39  62  39  60 /   0   0  10  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       39  62  39  58 /   0   0  10  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              35  58  36  56 /   0   0   0  60
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/TD




000
FXUS64 KMEG 291732
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1232 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

UPDATE...

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS HAVE
TAKEN HIGHS TODAY DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO IN SOME AREAS. OTHER THAN
THAT THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.

ZDM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM
EASTERN TENNESSEE BACK THROUGH NORTHERN ALABAMA...AND NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A
MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS OF 4 AM
CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S
NEAR THE MISSOURI/KENTUCKY BORDER TO THE MIDDLE 50S/60S NEAR
MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI. FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL TOWARDS THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK ARE THE
PREDOMINANT FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS A 1024 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS TONIGHT
DROPPING INTO THE 40S. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED AT BEST AND HAVE CONTINUED A RAIN FREE FORECAST INTO
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG
TERM MODELS INDICATE MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROP TO BETWEEN 0 TO -5C...RESULTING IN LOWS BY
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 30S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S.
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT IF WINDS DECOUPLE DURING THE NIGHT. A GRADUAL MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LONG TERM MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT HAS TRENDED ABOUT 12-24 HOURS
SLOWER AS THE FRONT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ALOFT AND SUGGESTING FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARDS NEXT WEDNESDAY.
CONSEQUENTLY MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH MORNING LIGHT FOG CAUSING
IFR/MVFR VISIBILITY AT MKL...TUP AND JBR. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 7-10
KTS WILL DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET...THEN VEER EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMRX 291729
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
130 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN
FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALING SOME LINGERING POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SCATTER OVER THE TAF SITES BY MID
AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG FORMATION LATE TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. A
PERSISTENT WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED AT KCHA AND KTYS OVERNIGHT...WHICH
MIGHT COMBINE WITH THE DRY AIR TO LIMIT MUCH FOG FORMATION. THUS...
WILL JUST MENTION TEMPORARY MVFR VISIBILITIES FOR NOW AT KTYS. AT
KTRI...WINDS SHOULD BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE AS TEMPS FALL TO THEIR DEWPOINTS. THUS...WILL MENTION
TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS AT KTRI TOWARDS SUNRISE.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG




000
FXUS64 KOHX 291656
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1156 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LIGHT NWLY WINDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GO
CALM TONIGHT AS A SFC RIDGE SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTH.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

UPDATE...FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION...

WITH THE FRONT AND MAIN PORTION OF THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD DECK
MOVING OFF THE PLATEAU...THE ONLY THING REMAINING IS BASICALLY AND
SCATTERED CLOUD DECK AND SOME FOG THAT WILL MIX OUT AND CLEAR UP
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF RAIN...
CLOUDS OR FOG FOR TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ON THEIR WAY UP TO THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 60S. ENJOY THESE TEMPERATURES...THE COLD IS ON THE
WAY.

UPDATES ARE OUT.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KMEG 291439
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
939 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS HAVE
TAKEN HIGHS TODAY DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO IN SOME AREAS. OTHER THAN
THAT THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.

ZDM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM
EASTERN TENNESSEE BACK THROUGH NORTHERN ALABAMA...AND NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A
MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS OF 4 AM
CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S
NEAR THE MISSOURI/KENTUCKY BORDER TO THE MIDDLE 50S/60S NEAR
MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI. FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL TOWARDS THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK ARE THE
PREDOMINANT FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS A 1024 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS TONIGHT
DROPPING INTO THE 40S. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED AT BEST AND HAVE CONTINUED A RAIN FREE FORECAST INTO
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG
TERM MODELS INDICATE MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROP TO BETWEEN 0 TO -5C...RESULTING IN LOWS BY
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 30S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S.
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT IF WINDS DECOUPLE DURING THE NIGHT. A GRADUAL MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LONG TERM MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT HAS TRENDED ABOUT 12-24 HOURS
SLOWER AS THE FRONT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ALOFT AND SUGGESTING FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARDS NEXT WEDNESDAY.
CONSEQUENTLY MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS

LOW LEVEL PATCHY GROUND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF THROUGH 14Z...AS
20-25KT WINDS NEAR FL010 MIX DOWN. THEREAFTER...VFR AND LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
EXPECTED FOR LATE EVENING MEM CARGO OPS.

PWB
&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 291436
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
936 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH THE FRONT AND MAIN PORTION OF THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD DECK
MOVING OFF THE PLATEAU...THE ONLY THING REMAINING IS BASICALLY AND
SCATTERED CLOUD DECK AND SOME FOG THAT WILL MIX OUT AND CLEAR UP
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF RAIN...
CLOUDS OR FOG FOR TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ON THEIR WAY UP TO THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 60S. ENJOY THESE TEMPERATURES...THE COLD IS ON THE
WAY.

UPDATES ARE OUT.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WITH WET GROUND AND QUICKLY CLEARING SKIES AM SEEING DENSE POST FRONTAL
FOG ACROSS NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE. CLARKSVILLE IS ALREADY DOWN
TO 1/4SM IN FOG. FOG IS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY ONCE LOW DECK CLEARS.
BACK EDGE OF LOW DECK CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM GLASGOW KENTUCKY TO
NASHVILLE THEN ON DOWN TOWARDS MUSCLE SHOALS. RAIN HAS PRETTY MUCH
PULLED OFF PLATEAU. QUESTION I HAVE IS HOW LONG WILL FOG HANG
AROUND THIS MORNING..ESPECIALLY AT CLARKSVILLE. WITH WEAK WIND
FIELD IT MAY BE 14Z-15Z BEFORE WE SEE VFR CONDITIONS BUT THE TREND
SHOULD BE FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KMRX 291410
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1010 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN
FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WITH RADARS SHOWING SOME
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...BUT
WILL PLAN TO UPDATE LATER THIS MORNING TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF
RAIN AND TO MENTION DECREASING CLOUDINESS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             67  41  65  41 /  50   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  39  63  39 /  60   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       65  39  63  40 /  50   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  37  60  35 /  60   0   0  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG




000
FXUS64 KOHX 291216
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
716 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH WET GROUND AND QUCKLY CLEARING SKIES AM SEEING DENSE POST FRONTAL
FOG ACROSS NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE. CLARKSVILLE IS ALREADY DOWN
TO 1/4SM IN FOG. FOG IS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY ONCE LOW DECK CLEARS.
BACK EDGE OF LOW DECK CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM GLASGOW KENTUCKY TO
NASHVILLE THEN ON DOWN TOWARDS MUSCLE SHOALS. RAIN HAS PRETTY MUCH
PULLED OFF PLATEAU. QUESTION I HAVE IS HOW LONG WILL FOG HANG
AROUND THIS MORNING..ESPECIALLY AT CLARKSVILLE. WITH WEAK WIND
FIELD IT MAY BE 14Z- 5Z BEFORE WE SEE VFR CONDITIONS BUT THE
TREND SHOULD BE FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.



&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KMEG 291143 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
643 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM
EASTERN TENNESSEE BACK THROUGH NORTHERN ALABAMA...AND NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A
MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS OF 4 AM
CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S
NEAR THE MISSOURI/KENTUCKY BORDER TO THE MIDDLE 50S/60S NEAR
MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI. FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL TOWARDS THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK ARE THE
PREDOMINANT FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS A 1024 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS TONIGHT
DROPPING INTO THE 40S. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED AT BEST AND HAVE CONTINUED A RAIN FREE FORECAST INTO
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG
TERM MODELS INDICATE MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROP TO BETWEEN 0 TO -5C...RESULTING IN LOWS BY
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 30S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S.
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT IF WINDS DECOUPLE DURING THE NIGHT. A GRADUAL MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LONG TERM MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT HAS TRENDED ABOUT 12-24 HOURS
SLOWER AS THE FRONT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ALOFT AND SUGGESTING FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARDS NEXT WEDNESDAY.
CONSEQUENTLY MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

LOW LEVEL PATCHY GROUND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF THROUGH 14Z...AS
20-25KT WINDS NEAR FL010 MIX DOWN. THEREAFTER...VFR AND LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
EXPECTED FOR LATE EVENING MEM CARGO OPS.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMRX 291136
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
736 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
RAIN HAS ARRIVED AT TAF SITES. THINK CHA WILL BE IMPROVING...TYS
WILL EXPERIENCE THE CORE PRESENTLY...TRI WILL EXPERIENCE THE CORE
A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING. VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED TO BOUNCE WITH
RAIN INTENSITY...MOST SITES TEMPOED WITH MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS
THIS MORNING. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LIKELY BTWN 15Z-17Z AS CORE OF
RAIN MOVES EAST OF AREA.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

GC




000
FXUS64 KOHX 291024
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
524 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...

SENDING OUT AN UPDATE TO ADD PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS NORTHWEST
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WHERE SKIES ARE CLEARING AND BOTH CKV AND PAH
REPORTING VIS OF UNDER 1/2 SM. ALSO UPDATED SKY COVER AND POPS
THROUGH 12Z BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...NASHVILLE HAS BROKEN THE RAINFALL RECORD FOR THE MONTH
OF OCTOBER WITH 8.41 INCHES AS OF 5 AM...BREAKING THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 8.35 INCHES SET IN 1919. CROSSVILLE ALSO HAS BROKE ITS
RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER WITH 8.22 INCHES AS OF
MIDNIGHT...BUT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL THERE AND WILL UPDATE
RECORD WITH RAINFALL TOTAL TODAY ONCE RAIN ENDS.

SHAMBURGER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE MID STATE. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN
ANYWHERE FROM 0.25 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH THE
NASHVILLE AIRPORT MEASURING 0.75 INCHES AS OF 3AM. THIS BRINGS
THE RAIN TOTAL FOR OCTOBER 2014 AT BNA TO 8.36 INCHES...WHICH
NOW MAKES THIS THE WETTEST OCTOBER ON RECORD...BEATING THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 8.35 INCHES SET IN 1919. BACK EDGE OF RAIN
SHIELD IS APPROACHING THE TN RIVER...BUT BNA SHOULD SEE LIGHT RAIN
FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS AND ANOTHER FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN. WILL ISSUE A PNS HIGHLIGHTING THIS RECORD ONCE RAIN HAS
ENDED AT BNA. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 14Z
OR SO PER LATEST HRRR...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A WARMUP INTO THE
60S ANTICIPATED BY AFTERNOON.

TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE PLAINS STATES. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A SHOWER OR TWO TO
NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT PER 00Z ECMWF BUT WILL LEAVE OUT
POPS FOR NOW. A MUCH MORE POWERFUL 100-110KT H5 SHORTWAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...FORCING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID STATE DURING
THE DAY. 00Z GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEPICT INTENSE CAA BEHIND FRONT WHICH
WILL BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR A CHILLY HALLOWEEN THIS YEAR. IN
ADDITION...00Z MODELS BOTH DEPICT SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EASTERN
ZONES ALONG/BEHIND FRONT FRIDAY...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE
NORTHERN PLATEAU INDICATE RAIN COULD CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING
FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL ADD LOW POPS FOR EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT AND MENTION POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT
FOR THE NORTHERN PLATEAU COUNTIES. ALSO LIKELY TO SEE A LIGHT
FREEZE IN PARTS OF THE PLATEAU FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE STRONG CAA
ELSEWHERE SHOULD KEEP BL MIXED AND TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW
FREEZING. THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS CENTER OF
1032MB SURFACE HIGH SETTLES JUST NORTHEAST OF THE MID STATE...AND
LIGHT WINDS WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD FREEZE OF THE SEASON THROUGHOUT THE CWA.

VERY AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER WITH A UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDING ACROSS
THE MID STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK....WITH A QUICK WARMUP INTO THE 60S.
GFS/ECMWF STRUGGLING WITH EVOLUTION OF UPPER FEATURES IN THE LONG
RANGE...BUT CURRENTLY APPEARS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP BY
MIDWEEK ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN SOMETIME AROUND TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KOHX 291024
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
524 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...

SENDING OUT AN UPDATE TO ADD PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS NORTHWEST
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WHERE SKIES ARE CLEARING AND BOTH CKV AND PAH
REPORTING VIS OF UNDER 1/2 SM. ALSO UPDATED SKY COVER AND POPS
THROUGH 12Z BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...NASHVILLE HAS BROKEN THE RAINFALL RECORD FOR THE MONTH
OF OCTOBER WITH 8.41 INCHES AS OF 5 AM...BREAKING THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 8.35 INCHES SET IN 1919. CROSSVILLE ALSO HAS BROKE ITS
RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER WITH 8.22 INCHES AS OF
MIDNIGHT...BUT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL THERE AND WILL UPDATE
RECORD WITH RAINFALL TOTAL TODAY ONCE RAIN ENDS.

SHAMBURGER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE MID STATE. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN
ANYWHERE FROM 0.25 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH THE
NASHVILLE AIRPORT MEASURING 0.75 INCHES AS OF 3AM. THIS BRINGS
THE RAIN TOTAL FOR OCTOBER 2014 AT BNA TO 8.36 INCHES...WHICH
NOW MAKES THIS THE WETTEST OCTOBER ON RECORD...BEATING THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 8.35 INCHES SET IN 1919. BACK EDGE OF RAIN
SHIELD IS APPROACHING THE TN RIVER...BUT BNA SHOULD SEE LIGHT RAIN
FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS AND ANOTHER FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN. WILL ISSUE A PNS HIGHLIGHTING THIS RECORD ONCE RAIN HAS
ENDED AT BNA. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 14Z
OR SO PER LATEST HRRR...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A WARMUP INTO THE
60S ANTICIPATED BY AFTERNOON.

TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE PLAINS STATES. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A SHOWER OR TWO TO
NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT PER 00Z ECMWF BUT WILL LEAVE OUT
POPS FOR NOW. A MUCH MORE POWERFUL 100-110KT H5 SHORTWAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...FORCING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID STATE DURING
THE DAY. 00Z GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEPICT INTENSE CAA BEHIND FRONT WHICH
WILL BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR A CHILLY HALLOWEEN THIS YEAR. IN
ADDITION...00Z MODELS BOTH DEPICT SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EASTERN
ZONES ALONG/BEHIND FRONT FRIDAY...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE
NORTHERN PLATEAU INDICATE RAIN COULD CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING
FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL ADD LOW POPS FOR EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT AND MENTION POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT
FOR THE NORTHERN PLATEAU COUNTIES. ALSO LIKELY TO SEE A LIGHT
FREEZE IN PARTS OF THE PLATEAU FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE STRONG CAA
ELSEWHERE SHOULD KEEP BL MIXED AND TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW
FREEZING. THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS CENTER OF
1032MB SURFACE HIGH SETTLES JUST NORTHEAST OF THE MID STATE...AND
LIGHT WINDS WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD FREEZE OF THE SEASON THROUGHOUT THE CWA.

VERY AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER WITH A UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDING ACROSS
THE MID STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK....WITH A QUICK WARMUP INTO THE 60S.
GFS/ECMWF STRUGGLING WITH EVOLUTION OF UPPER FEATURES IN THE LONG
RANGE...BUT CURRENTLY APPEARS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP BY
MIDWEEK ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN SOMETIME AROUND TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KMEG 290936
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
436 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM
EASTERN TENNESSEE BACK THROUGH NORTHERN ALABAMA...AND NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A
MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS OF 4 AM
CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S
NEAR THE MISSOURI/KENTUCKY BORDER TO THE MIDDLE 50S/60S NEAR
MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI. FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL TOWARDS THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK ARE THE
PREDOMINANT FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS A 1024 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS TONIGHT
DROPPING INTO THE 40S. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED AT BEST AND HAVE CONTINUED A RAIN FREE FORECAST INTO
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG
TERM MODELS INDICATE MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROP TO BETWEEN 0 TO -5C...RESULTING IN LOWS BY
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 30S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S.
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT IF WINDS DECOUPLE DURING THE NIGHT. A GRADUAL MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LONG TERM MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT HAS TRENDED ABOUT 12-24 HOURS
SLOWER AS THE FRONT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ALOFT AND SUGGESTING FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARDS NEXT WEDNESDAY.
CONSEQUENTLY MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

CJC
&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
AT KJBR THOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AS SKIES CLEAR OUT.
CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT KMEM AND KMKL AS SHRAS
AND EMBEDDED TSRAS COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
KTUP WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WITH SHRAS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSRAS POSSIBLE. CONDS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 29/12Z THERE. WINDS WILL BE NNE 5-7 KTS
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 290815
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
315 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE MID STATE. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN
ANYWHERE FROM 0.25 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH THE
NASHVILLE AIRPORT MEASURING 0.75 INCHES AS OF 3AM. THIS BRINGS
THE RAIN TOTAL FOR OCTOBER 2014 AT BNA TO 8.36 INCHES...WHICH
NOW MAKES THIS THE WETTEST OCTOBER ON RECORD...BEATING THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 8.35 INCHES SET IN 1919. BACK EDGE OF RAIN
SHIELD IS APPROACHING THE TN RIVER...BUT BNA SHOULD SEE LIGHT RAIN
FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS AND ANOTHER FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN. WILL ISSUE A PNS HIGHLIGHTING THIS RECORD ONCE RAIN HAS
ENDED AT BNA. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 14Z
OR SO PER LATEST HRRR...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A WARMUP INTO THE
60S ANTICIPATED BY AFTERNOON.

TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE PLAINS STATES. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A SHOWER OR TWO TO
NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT PER 00Z ECMWF BUT WILL LEAVE OUT
POPS FOR NOW. A MUCH MORE POWERFUL 100-110KT H5 SHORTWAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...FORCING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID STATE DURING
THE DAY. 00Z GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEPICT INTENSE CAA BEHIND FRONT WHICH
WILL BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR A CHILLY HALLOWEEN THIS YEAR. IN
ADDITION...00Z MODELS BOTH DEPICT SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EASTERN
ZONES ALONG/BEHIND FRONT FRIDAY...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE
NORTHERN PLATEAU INDICATE RAIN COULD CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING
FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL ADD LOW POPS FOR EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT AND MENTION POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT
FOR THE NORTHERN PLATEAU COUNTIES. ALSO LIKELY TO SEE A LIGHT
FREEZE IN PARTS OF THE PLATEAU FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE STRONG CAA
ELSEWHERE SHOULD KEEP BL MIXED AND TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW
FREEZING. THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS CENTER OF
1032MB SURFACE HIGH SETTLES JUST NORTHEAST OF THE MID STATE...AND
LIGHT WINDS WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD FREEZE OF THE SEASON THROUGHOUT THE CWA.

VERY AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER WITH A UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDING ACROSS
THE MID STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK....WITH A QUICK WARMUP INTO THE 60S.
GFS/ECMWF STRUGGLING WITH EVOLUTION OF UPPER FEATURES IN THE LONG
RANGE...BUT CURRENTLY APPEARS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP BY
MIDWEEK ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN SOMETIME AROUND TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      65  40  64  44 /  10  05  05  10
CLARKSVILLE    65  38  63  43 /  05  05  05  10
CROSSVILLE     61  38  60  40 /  20  05  05  05
COLUMBIA       66  40  65  43 /  10  05  05  10
LAWRENCEBURG   66  40  65  42 /  20  05  05  10
WAVERLY        65  39  64  43 /  10  05  05  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER






000
FXUS64 KMRX 290712
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
312 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE MAIN WEATHER ACTION TO OCCUR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
FIRST PERIOD AS FROPA ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BRING RAIN
TO CWA...ENDING WEST TO EAST. ENDING OVER THE PLATEAU AROUND
12-14Z...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AROUND 21Z ROUGHLY. SEASONAL-TYPE TEMPS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MAYBE PATCHY FOG
THURSDAY MORNING NEAR LAKES.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SE
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THIS A CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY...WITH THE CORE OF THE LOW OVER THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QG FORCING WILL BRING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...THEN WE SHIFT TO A
NW FLOW PATTERN BEHIND THE FRONT AND 850 MB LOW FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
RESULTING COLD ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY WILL CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN SW VA...WITH A
CHANCE IN THE PLATEAU AND VALLEY COMING BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. POPS
TAPER OFF THROUGH SATURDAY WITH STABILIZING MIDLEVEL TEMPS AND
DECREASING MOISTURE DEPTH. IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TOTAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ABOVE WATCH CRITERIA APPEAR REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...BUT
SINCE WE ARE STILL ABOUT 72 HOURS FROM THE START OF ANY
SNOWFALL...WITH HOLD OFF ON A WATCH AND MENTION THE THREAT IN THE
HWO. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY. A MORE
EASTERN TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND GEFS MEAN
WOULD RESULT IN LOWER AMOUNTS THAN THE MORE WESTERN TRACKS OF THE
GFS AND NAM...SO THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DISPARITIES TO BE
RESOLVED BEFORE CONFIDENCE CAN WARRANT A WATCH.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE
FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  42  66  41 /  50   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  66  39  63  39 /  50   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       67  39  63  40 /  40   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              64  35  59  35 /  60   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

GC/DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 290705
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
305 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
RAIN MOVING IN TO TAF VICINITIES NOW. SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
14-16Z. CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY GO TO MVFR ON AVERAGE. CLEARING
OUT WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS 20Z-30/06Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

GC




000
FXUS64 KOHX 290459
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1159 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS NEAR A MSL-TO-CSV LINE AT 03Z
AND CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARD. A BROAD BAND OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WAS LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT, EXTENDING
NORTHWESTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF THE CKV AREA. STILL EXPECT SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS INVOF CKV THROUGH 10Z, ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. LOOK FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT BNA THROUGH
10Z, THEN IMPROVING TO VFR AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY TO THE I-65
CORRIDOR. MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT CSV
THROUGH 10Z, THEN MVFR THROUGH 14Z, FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 14Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KMEG 290439
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1139 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR PARIS TENNESSEE TO
STUTTGART ARKANSAS. SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO STREAM UP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD
HANDLE...WILL UPDATE AROUND MIDNIGHT TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND CURRENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TIMING THE PASSAGE OF THE
BOUNDARY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF LZK TO MEG
TO CKV. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC FRONTAL ZONE ARE IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH WARM SECTOR READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY
HOWEVER SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN
MS...ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNCAPPED
AND RESULTANT OF THE INSTABILITY...SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MANAGED TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES WITHIN THIS
ENVIRONMENT. THESE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS WITH
LIGHTENING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREATS.

SOME REMNANT ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL ZONE SO HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THROUGH
THIS EVENING. RAINFALL HAS BEEN SHOWERY IN NATURE AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TRUE THROUGH THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

FOR TOMORROW...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED WELL SOUTHEAST HOWEVER
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS OF NORTHEAST MS
THROUGH 18Z...ALL AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE BY 00Z THURSDAY. IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE
ECMWF HAS COME IN COLDER FOR THE WEEKEND...NAMELY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH FROST IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE IN FAVORED
AREAS OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. FOR NOW...HAVE ADDED WORDING
TO THE HWO AND WILL DEFER TO FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS POTENTIAL MORE HEAVILY IF NEED BE.

IN THE LONG RANGE...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MODELS TEND TO BE ERRATIC AND INCONSISTENT WITH THESE TYPE OF
SYSTEMS WITH REGARD TO TIMING BUT THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT NEXT
WEEK COULD BE WET.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
AT KJBR THOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AS SKIES CLEAR OUT.
CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT KMEM AND KMKL AS SHRAS
AND EMBEDDED TSRAS COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
KTUP WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WITH SHRAS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSRAS POSSIBLE. CONDS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 29/12Z THERE. WINDS WILL BE NNE 5-7 KTS
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 290241
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
941 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR PARIS TENNESSEE TO
STUTTGART ARKANSAS. SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO STREAM UP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD
HANDLE...WILL UPDATE AROUND MIDNIGHT TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND CURRENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TIMING THE PASSAGE OF THE
BOUNDARY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF LZK TO MEG
TO CKV. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC FRONTAL ZONE ARE IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH WARM SECTOR READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY
HOWEVER SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN
MS...ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNCAPPED
AND RESULTANT OF THE INSTABILITY...SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MANAGED TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES WITHIN THIS
ENVIRONMENT. THESE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS WITH
LIGHTENING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREATS.

SOME REMNANT ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL ZONE SO HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THROUGH
THIS EVENING. RAINFALL HAS BEEN SHOWERY IN NATURE AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TRUE THROUGH THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

FOR TOMORROW...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED WELL SOUTHEAST HOWEVER
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS OF NORTHEAST MS
THROUGH 18Z...ALL AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE BY 00Z THURSDAY. IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE
ECMWF HAS COME IN COLDER FOR THE WEEKEND...NAMELY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH FROST IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE IN FAVORED
AREAS OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. FOR NOW...HAVE ADDED WORDING
TO THE HWO AND WILL DEFER TO FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS POTENTIAL MORE HEAVILY IF NEED BE.

IN THE LONG RANGE...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MODELS TEND TO BE ERRATIC AND INCONSISTENT WITH THESE TYPE OF
SYSTEMS WITH REGARD TO TIMING BUT THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT NEXT
WEEK COULD BE WET.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS

COLD FRONT ROUGHLY PARALLEL AND JUST SOUTH OF I-40. FRONT IS WELL
SOUTH OF KJBR SO VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL THERE. MVFR/IFR CONDS
HAVE WORKED INTO KMEM AND KMKL WITH SHRAS AND AN EMBEDDED TSRA OR
TWO. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 29/04Z WITH CONDS
IMPROVING TO VFR THEREAFTER. KTUP WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SHRAS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
TSRAS POSSIBLE. CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 29/12Z. WINDS
WILL BE NNE 5-7 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

SJM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 290235
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
935 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM CELINA TO MURFREESBORO AND
WAYNESBORO. NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S...WHILE TEMPS REMAINED IN THE LOWER 60S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE SCATTERED ALONG THE FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE MID STATE BY
MIDNIGHT...BUT POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL LINGER LATE INTO THE NIGHT.

THE FORECAST WAS RECENTLY UPDATED TO RAISE POPS ALL AREAS. RAIN
WILL NOT BE CONSTANT...BUT SHOWERS ARE NUMEROUS ENOUGH THAT
EVERYBODY SHOULD HAVE SOME PERIODS OF MEASURABLE RAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHT. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL END FOR OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY
MIDNIGHT. MOST OTHER AREAS WEST OF THE PLATEAU WILL SEE AN END TO
SHOWERS BY 6 AM. TOTAL RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ONE QUARTER
INCH NORTHWEST...TO AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH FOR THE
SOUTH HALF AND PLATEAU.

TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S

13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...SURFACE COLD FRONT NEAR A LEX-BNA-MEM LINE AT 23Z,
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD
OF IT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEHIND THE FRONT
WAS PRODUCING A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM NEAR SDF TO
CKV...DYR AND LIT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY COMMON
OVERNIGHT AT MID STATE TERMINALS AS THESE TWO AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE. SURFACE FRONT SHOULD PUSH
EAST OF MIDDLE TN AROUND 10Z, WITH SOME POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS
LINGERING IN THE CSV AREA THROUGH 15Z. EXPECT MVFR TO GIVE WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 05Z AT CKV, AFTER 07Z AT BNA, AND AFTER 13Z
AT CSV.

19

&&

329 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS JUST TO THE NW OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE FRONT HAS LOST ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIP AND IS CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR COUNTIES FOR NOW. FORCING IS WEAK ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SO...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR
WHICH CONTINUES TO JUST SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR TONIGHT. WILL LOWER QPF AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS AND
GENERALLY UTILIZE 40-60 PERCENT POPS. WILL INCLUDE JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. STILL...SOME MINIMAL INSTABILITIES ARE IN
PLACE.

FOLLOWING A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS IN THE MORNING ACROSS OUR EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WE SHOULD SEE DECREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND THIS
LATEST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ONLY USHER IN NEAR NORMAL VALUES
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

IN THE EXT FCST...THE WEATHER LOOKS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING THAN
24 HRS AGO. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ACROSS EASTERN TN BY THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY ACROSS TN AND WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN
COOLER TO COLDER TEMPERATURES. HERE IN THE MID STATE...WE WILL BE ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND THERE WILL BE SOME
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS ACTUALLY
SUPPORTS A FEW FLURRIES FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLATEAU. BUT...GIVEN THAT THIS IS ONLY RUN #1 OF GFS
CONTINUITY...WILL ONLY MENTION COLDER TEMPS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FURTHERMORE...EURO IS FURTHER EAST WITH THE TRACK AND MOISTURE.
SATURDAY LOOKS RATHER COLD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S WITH AN APPRECIABLE NORTHERLY BREEZE AS WELL.
SO...LOOKING COLD AND BRISK ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
WARM WEATHER WE HAVE HAD.

OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ON SUNDAY MORNING.
MEX IS TRENDING TOWARD COLDER AND A FREEZE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY IN
PLACE. FOR NOW...WILL INCLUDE PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE AREA.
LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND TO OCCUR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

21

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMRX 290212
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1012 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...MINOR UPDATE TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST. RAISED MIN TEMPS
A DEGREE OR TWO. ADJUSTED TIMING AND INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             57  65  41  66 /  70  40   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  56  65  39  63 /  80  40   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       54  65  39  62 /  80  30   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              53  62  35  58 / 100  60   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KOHX 282342
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
642 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE COLD FRONT NEAR A LEX-BNA-MEM LINE AT 23Z,
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD
OF IT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEHIND THE FRONT
WAS PRODUCING A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM NEAR SDF TO
CKV...DYR AND LIT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY COMMON
OVERNIGHT AT MID STATE TERMINALS AS THESE TWO AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE. SURFACE FRONT SHOULD PUSH
EAST OF MIDDLE TN AROUND 10Z, WITH SOME POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS
LINGERING IN THE CSV AREA THROUGH 15Z. EXPECT MVFR TO GIVE WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 05Z AT CKV, AFTER 07Z AT BNA, AND AFTER 13Z
AT CSV.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KMEG 282337
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
637 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND CURRENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TIMING THE PASSAGE OF THE
BOUNDARY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF LZK TO MEG
TO CKV. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC FRONTAL ZONE ARE IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH WARM SECTOR READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY
HOWEVER SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN
MS...ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNCAPPED
AND RESULTANT OF THE INSTABILITY...SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MANAGED TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES WITHIN THIS
ENVIRONMENT. THESE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS WITH
LIGHTENING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREATS.

SOME REMNANT ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL ZONE SO HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THROUGH
THIS EVENING. RAINFALL HAS BEEN SHOWERY IN NATURE AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TRUE THROUGH THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

FOR TOMORROW...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED WELL SOUTHEAST HOWEVER
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS OF NORTHEAST MS
THROUGH 18Z...ALL AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE BY 00Z THURSDAY. IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE
ECMWF HAS COME IN COLDER FOR THE WEEKEND...NAMELY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH FROST IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE IN FAVORED
AREAS OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. FOR NOW...HAVE ADDED WORDING
TO THE HWO AND WILL DEFER TO FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS POTENTIAL MORE HEAVILY IF NEED BE.

IN THE LONG RANGE...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MODELS TEND TO BE ERRATIC AND INCONSISTENT WITH THESE TYPE OF
SYSTEMS WITH REGARD TO TIMING BUT THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT NEXT
WEEK COULD BE WET.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS

COLD FRONT ROUGHLY PARALLEL AND JUST SOUTH OF I-40. FRONT IS WELL
SOUTH OF KJBR SO VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL THERE. MVFR/IFR CONDS
HAVE WORKED INTO KMEM AND KMKL WITH SHRAS AND AN EMBEDDED TSRA OR
TWO. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 29/04Z WITH CONDS
IMPROVING TO VFR THEREAFTER. KTUP WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SHRAS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
TSRAS POSSIBLE. CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 29/12Z. WINDS
WILL BE NNE 5-7 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMRX 282324
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
724 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND PERSIST UNTIL MID DAY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVAILING
DURING SHOWER ACTIVITY. RAPID CLEARING EXPECTED FOR THE LATER PART
OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 282210
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
610 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY FORECAST. DUE TO GOOD
CONTINUITY BETWEEN GFS...ECMWF AND NAM MODELS...DECIDE TO INCREASE
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WITH CYCLO-GENESIS OVER CAROLINAS SATURDAY. END RESULT
WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY. ALSO...STRONG NORTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEST/NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES.

THE UPPER TROUGH BRINGS THE FIRSTS SHOT OF WINTER-LIKE COLD WITH
THE VERTICAL PROFILE BECOMING COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A DISTINT
POSSIBILITY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 2500
FEET...OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS.
SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS...PLACES LIKE THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
KNOB...VIRGINIA.

A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TRI-
CITIES AND KNOXVILLE AS WELL.

DUE TO THE EXPECTED AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...CLOUDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL FOR
SATURDAY. WILL UPDATE HWO TO INCLUDE SNOWFALL CHANCES AND EXPECTED
COLD WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             56  65  41  66 /  70  40   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  54  65  39  63 /  80  40   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       54  65  39  62 /  80  30   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              52  62  35  58 / 100  60   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 282029
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
329 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS JUST TO THE NW OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE FRONT HAS LOST ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIP AND IS CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR COUNTIES FOR NOW. FORCING IS WEAK ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SO...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR
WHICH CONTINUES TO JUST SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR TONIGHT. WILL LOWER QPF AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS AND
GENERALLY UTILIZE 40-60 PERCENT POPS. WILL INCLUDE JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. STILL...SOME MINIMAL INSTABILITIES ARE IN
PLACE.

FOLLOWING A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS IN THE MORNING ACROSS OUR EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WE SHOULD SEE DECREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND THIS
LATEST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ONLY USHER IN NEAR NORMAL VALUES
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

IN THE EXT FCST...THE WEATHER LOOKS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING THAN
24 HRS AGO. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ACROSS EASTERN TN BY THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY ACROSS TN AND WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN
COOLER TO COLDER TEMPERATURES. HERE IN THE MID STATE...WE WILL BE ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND THERE WILL BE SOME
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS ACTUALLY
SUPPORTS A FEW FLURRIES FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLATEAU. BUT...GIVEN THAT THIS IS ONLY RUN #1 OF GFS
CONTINUITY...WILL ONLY MENTION COLDER TEMPS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FURTHERMORE...EURO IS FURTHER EAST WITH THE TRACK AND MOISTURE.
SATURDAY LOOKS RATHER COLD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S WITH AN APPRECIABLE NORTHERLY BREEZE AS WELL.
SO...LOOKING COLD AND BRISK ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
WARM WEATHER WE HAVE HAD.

OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ON SUNDAY MORNING.
MEX IS TRENDING TOWARD COLDER AND A FREEZE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY IN
PLACE. FOR NOW...WILL INCLUDE PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE AREA.
LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND TO OCCUR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      50  67  39  63 /  40  10   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    46  66  37  62 /  40  05   0   0
CROSSVILLE     50  62  37  58 /  60  20   0   0
COLUMBIA       51  68  39  65 /  50  10   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   51  68  39  65 /  60  20   0   0
WAVERLY        47  67  38  63 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KMEG 282027
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
327 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND CURRENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TIMING THE PASSAGE OF THE
BOUNDARY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF LZK TO MEG
TO CKV. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC FRONTAL ZONE ARE IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH WARM SECTOR READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY
HOWEVER SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN
MS...ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNCAPPED
AND RESULTANT OF THE INSTABILITY...SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MANAGED TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES WITHIN THIS
ENVIRONMENT. THESE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS WITH
LIGHTENING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREATS.

SOME REMNANT ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL ZONE SO HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THROUGH
THIS EVENING. RAINFALL HAS BEEN SHOWERY IN NATURE AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TRUE THROUGH THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

FOR TOMORROW...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED WELL SOUTHEAST HOWEVER
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS OF NORTHEAST MS
THROUGH 18Z...ALL AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE BY 00Z THURSDAY. IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE
ECMWF HAS COME IN COLDER FOR THE WEEKEND...NAMELY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH FROST IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE IN FAVORED
AREAS OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. FOR NOW...HAVE ADDED WORDING
TO THE HWO AND WILL DEFER TO FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS POTENTIAL MORE HEAVILY IF NEED BE.

IN THE LONG RANGE...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MODELS TEND TO BE ERRATIC AND INCONSISTENT WITH THESE TYPE OF
SYSTEMS WITH REGARD TO TIMING BUT THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT NEXT
WEEK COULD BE WET.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

PRECIPITATION WITH PASSING COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT MEM AND MKL
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE
VCTS OUT OF THE TAFS. BRUNT OF RAINFALL...TO INCLUDE A BETTER
THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL AFFECT TUP THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL
MAINLY BE MVFR...ESPECIALLY FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATER TONIGHT
WHEN IFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO TUP. VFR WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AT JBR...MEM AND MKL. SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS AT 5-10 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL VEER NORTHEAST.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$














000
FXUS64 KMRX 281904
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
301 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION.  A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MRX CWA LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
EXPECTED.  THE SHOWERS WILL PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER AIR MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MOST CHANGES WERE
MADE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLDER WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND TEMPS WERE LOWERED BASED ON MODELS TRENDING TO THIS
SOLUTION.

THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW EASES OFF BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
WITH SURFACE RIDGE SETTLING OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT MAY BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY...SO INTRODUCED
A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...JUST MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO MIN/MAX TEMPS PRIOR TO AND
AFTER THE WEEKEND...CLOSE TO SIMILAR GFSX AND ECMX MOS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             56  65  41  66 /  70  40   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  54  65  39  63 /  80  40   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       54  65  39  62 /  80  30   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              52  62  35  58 / 100  60   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB/TG




000
FXUS64 KOHX 281803
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
103 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR BNA AND CKV THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY ENOUGH CHANCE TO MENTION VCTS AT BNA. PRECIP
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FOR A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE
FROPA...WHICH WILL BE AROUND 23Z FOR CKV...01Z FOR BNA...AND 07Z
FOR CSV. MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO VFR AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WINDS OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11






000
FXUS64 KMRX 281751
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
150 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.AVIATION...MID AND LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL THROUGH THE EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER HAS DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD
REACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE TAF STIES BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z.
ACCOMPANYING THE SHOWERS WILL BE LOWERING CIG AND LOCAL LOWING OF
VIS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.  CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE IN
THE PERIOD.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 281725
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1225 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

UPDATE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS ONGOING IN A BAND EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
AR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE BOOTHEEL OF MO AND WEST TN. LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE BEEN FEW AND FAR BETWEEN THIS MORNING...HOWEVER SOME
CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
MUCAPES APPROACHING 500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS THE
CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT SINKS SOUTHEAST. TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS ON TRACK SO THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO THE
FORECAST WAS TO LOWER THE HIGHS A BIT AS CLOUD COVER IS INHIBITING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING.

TVT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AS
OF 4 AM CDT...RAIN SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO ENTER NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT...COOLER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS
THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AND A RETURN OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE THE PREDOMINANT
CHALLENGES IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND WEDNESDAY)...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT AS A COLD FRONT LOCATED UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST
AREA DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID SOUTH TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE NORTH OF
I-40 THIS MORNING AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
REMAINS LOW AS OVERALL FORCING/INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
MINIMAL AT BEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DEPART
THE MID SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE CONTINUED A
RAIN FREE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SATURDAY
REMAINING MAINLY IN THE 50S AND PERHAPS A POTENTIAL FOR FROST
SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 30S...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS TYPICALLY FAVORED AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONG TERM MODELS ARE INDICATING RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN BY MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

PRECIPITATION WITH PASSING COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT MEM AND MKL
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE
VCTS OUT OF THE TAFS. BRUNT OF RAINFALL...TO INCLUDE A BETTER
THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL AFFECT TUP THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL
MAINLY BE MVFR...ESPECIALLY FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATER TONIGHT
WHEN IFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO TUP. VFR WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AT JBR...MEM AND MKL. SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS AT 5-10 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL VEER NORTHEAST.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








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