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000
FXUS64 KOHX 190033
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
733 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO FORECAST THIS EVENING. COASTAL LOW TO
CONTINUE MOVING VERY SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FL/GA ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD REMAINING WELL SOUTHEAST OF
CWA. STRENGTHENING NE LLJ TONIGHT INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE
EXPECTED TO KEEP/INCREASE LIGHT WIND AT THE SFC AND NEGATE FOG
FORMATION. LOW/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COASTAL LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS ALL WELL
COVERED.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LOW DOWN ALONG GULF
COAST IS PROGGED TO SPIN ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA ON SATURDAY WHILE
KEEPING RAIN SHIELD WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KOHX 190033
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
733 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO FORECAST THIS EVENING. COASTAL LOW TO
CONTINUE MOVING VERY SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FL/GA ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD REMAINING WELL SOUTHEAST OF
CWA. STRENGTHENING NE LLJ TONIGHT INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE
EXPECTED TO KEEP/INCREASE LIGHT WIND AT THE SFC AND NEGATE FOG
FORMATION. LOW/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COASTAL LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS ALL WELL
COVERED.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LOW DOWN ALONG GULF
COAST IS PROGGED TO SPIN ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA ON SATURDAY WHILE
KEEPING RAIN SHIELD WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

55





000
FXUS64 KOHX 190004
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
704 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LOW DOWN ALONG GULF
COAST IS PROGGED TO SPIN ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA ON SATURDAY WHILE
KEEPING RAIN SHIELD WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 190004
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
704 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LOW DOWN ALONG GULF
COAST IS PROGGED TO SPIN ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA ON SATURDAY WHILE
KEEPING RAIN SHIELD WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 190004
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
704 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LOW DOWN ALONG GULF
COAST IS PROGGED TO SPIN ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA ON SATURDAY WHILE
KEEPING RAIN SHIELD WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 190004
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
704 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LOW DOWN ALONG GULF
COAST IS PROGGED TO SPIN ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA ON SATURDAY WHILE
KEEPING RAIN SHIELD WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
BOYD
01





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMRX 182359
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
759 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING. PRECIP ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL PROBABLY PUSH OVER AND BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO THE TENNESSEE SIDE...POPS QUICKLY TAPERING DOWN TO
SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH PROB30 INTRODUCED TO TRI
FOR 10Z-16Z.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

GC



000
FXUS64 KMRX 182359
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
759 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING. PRECIP ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL PROBABLY PUSH OVER AND BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO THE TENNESSEE SIDE...POPS QUICKLY TAPERING DOWN TO
SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH PROB30 INTRODUCED TO TRI
FOR 10Z-16Z.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

GC



000
FXUS64 KMRX 182359
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
759 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING. PRECIP ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL PROBABLY PUSH OVER AND BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO THE TENNESSEE SIDE...POPS QUICKLY TAPERING DOWN TO
SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH PROB30 INTRODUCED TO TRI
FOR 10Z-16Z.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

GC



000
FXUS64 KMRX 182359
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
759 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING. PRECIP ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL PROBABLY PUSH OVER AND BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO THE TENNESSEE SIDE...POPS QUICKLY TAPERING DOWN TO
SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH PROB30 INTRODUCED TO TRI
FOR 10Z-16Z.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

GC


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMEG 182334 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
634 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 330 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A SURFACE LOW
IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR FLORIDA WHILE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL AT
BEST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
PREVALENT WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EAST. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FLORIDA BY SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
EVENING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS VERY LOW AT BEST AND AS A
RESULT KEPT THE FORECAST RAIN FREE. THESE RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
AND APPROACH 80 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT EMBEDDED WITHIN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. SLOWED ONSET OF LOW END RAIN CHANCES BACK TO LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS BETTER PRECIPITATION
AND A SHORTWAVE WON/T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR THE MID SOUTH ON TUESDAY WITH
AN OCCLUDING COLD FRONT ARRIVING TOWARDS LATE NEXT WEEK. KEPT LOW
END POPS AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED ANY MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ADJUSTING UPWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN QUITE SIMILAR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (19/00Z-20/00Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT TONIGHT.
WINDS SATURDAY NE 7-10 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 182116
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
416 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA SPENT TODAY MOVING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY ENE. TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO REACH 69 THE LAST HOUR IN
SPITE OF THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, SO STILL A PLEASANT DAY OUT MINUS
THE FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FROM THIS MORNING. THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED
TO BE DRY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 DEGREES. CLOUDS SHOULD
ERODE FROM THE WEST AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW TIGHTENS AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST...PULLING ANY PRECIP CHANCES ALONG
WITH IT. EXPECTING A PLEASANT WEEKEND AS WE AWAIT THE NEXT SYSTEM.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL ALLOW TO TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY INTRODUCING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDER. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY WARM SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY... THEN SOUNDINGS BECOME SATURATED AFTER 00Z TUESDAY INDICATING
SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE MID STATE BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW FOR
SEASONABLE OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WPC 5 DAY QPF INDICATES ONLY 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF
RAINFALL FROM NOW THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DIDN`T STRAY TOO FAR FROM MOS TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      49  75  51  78 /  10  05  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    47  75  48  78 /  10  05  05  05
CROSSVILLE     47  68  47  73 /  20  05  05  05
COLUMBIA       49  75  51  78 /  10  05  05  05
LAWRENCEBURG   49  75  50  78 /  10  05  05  05
WAVERLY        48  75  49  78 /  10  05  05  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

11





000
FXUS64 KOHX 182116
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
416 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA SPENT TODAY MOVING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY ENE. TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO REACH 69 THE LAST HOUR IN
SPITE OF THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, SO STILL A PLEASANT DAY OUT MINUS
THE FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FROM THIS MORNING. THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED
TO BE DRY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 DEGREES. CLOUDS SHOULD
ERODE FROM THE WEST AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW TIGHTENS AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST...PULLING ANY PRECIP CHANCES ALONG
WITH IT. EXPECTING A PLEASANT WEEKEND AS WE AWAIT THE NEXT SYSTEM.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL ALLOW TO TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY INTRODUCING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDER. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY WARM SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY... THEN SOUNDINGS BECOME SATURATED AFTER 00Z TUESDAY INDICATING
SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE MID STATE BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW FOR
SEASONABLE OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WPC 5 DAY QPF INDICATES ONLY 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF
RAINFALL FROM NOW THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DIDN`T STRAY TOO FAR FROM MOS TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      49  75  51  78 /  10  05  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    47  75  48  78 /  10  05  05  05
CROSSVILLE     47  68  47  73 /  20  05  05  05
COLUMBIA       49  75  51  78 /  10  05  05  05
LAWRENCEBURG   49  75  50  78 /  10  05  05  05
WAVERLY        48  75  49  78 /  10  05  05  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

11






000
FXUS64 KMEG 182030
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
330 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A SURFACE LOW
IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR FLORIDA WHILE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL AT
BEST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
PREVALENT WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EAST. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FLORIDA BY SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
EVENING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS VERY LOW AT BEST AND AS A
RESULT KEPT THE FORECAST RAIN FREE. THESE RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
AND APPROACH 80 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT EMBEDDED WITHIN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. SLOWED ONSET OF LOW END RAIN CHANCES BACK TO LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS BETTER PRECIPITATION
AND A SHORTWAVE WON/T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR THE MID SOUTH ON TUESDAY WITH
AN OCCLUDING COLD FRONT ARRIVING TOWARDS LATE NEXT WEEK. KEPT LOW
END POPS AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED ANY MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ADJUSTING UPWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN QUITE SIMILAR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
RAINFALL COVERAGE ISN`T EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO EVEN WARRANT
VCSH...ALTHOUGH THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE NEAR TUP. CIGS WILL
LIKELY BE 6-9K FEET THIS AFTERNOON CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.
EASTERLY WINDS 0F 5-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

JDS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMRX 181918
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
318 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
LIGHT RAIN IS BEGINNING TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AT A
SLOW PACE...BUT OUR SW NC COUNTIES SHOULD SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL
FROM AROUND 00Z ONWARD ACCORDING TO THE RAP13 AND HRRR. THERE WILL
BE A SHARP POP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA FROM SE TO NW...WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS IN CLAY COUNTY NC TO NO POPS IN THE COUNTIES
BORDERING THE PLATEAU. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THE
WESTWARD EXTENT OF PRECIP...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE VALLEY. WILL
HAVE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE BLEEDING INTO CHA-TYS-TRI TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS VERY SLOW TO MOVE
EAST...AND SO POPS WILL BE EXTENDED/RAISED INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WARMEST IN THE
NORTHERN PLATEAU WHERE SOME SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE...IN THE LOWER
70S...AND COOLEST EAST UNDER CLOUDS/PRECIP.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
BY SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BE MOVING TO THE COAST
AND PULLING MOISTURE NORTHEAST. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT RAINFALL CHANCES DROP TO
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND WESTERN TN
VALLEY TO INFLUENCE THE FORECAST AREA WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
SUNSHINE RETURNING EASTR SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN SATURDAY...MOSTLY LOWER TO MID 70S
POSSIBLY UPPER 70S PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST TN. LOWER PRESSURE
DEVELOPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND WEAK TROUGH FORMS OVER THE MS
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS FASTEST WITH THE
SPREAD OF MOISTURE EAST FROM THIS SYSTEM MONDAY WITH SHOWERS
STARTING AS SOON AS MONDAY MORNING. CANADIAN/UKMET AND ECMWF SLOW
SYSTEM DOWN WITH APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH FRONT TUESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGE ALOFT BUILD BACK IN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. NEW SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY CROSSES THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. SOME CLOUDS SPREAD INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT EARLY THURSDAY WITH A POSSIBLE WARM FRONT. MAIN
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
BULK OF THE WEATHER STAYS ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THEN INDUCES
FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT MARCHES EAST INTO THE TN VALLEY FRIDAY WITH GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE
OF CONVECTION WILL BE OUTSIDE OF FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
STAY NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE EXTENDED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             48  69  50  77 /  20  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  48  67  48  75 /  20  10   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       47  70  48  76 /  10  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              44  66  45  74 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 181918
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
318 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
LIGHT RAIN IS BEGINNING TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AT A
SLOW PACE...BUT OUR SW NC COUNTIES SHOULD SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL
FROM AROUND 00Z ONWARD ACCORDING TO THE RAP13 AND HRRR. THERE WILL
BE A SHARP POP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA FROM SE TO NW...WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS IN CLAY COUNTY NC TO NO POPS IN THE COUNTIES
BORDERING THE PLATEAU. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THE
WESTWARD EXTENT OF PRECIP...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE VALLEY. WILL
HAVE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE BLEEDING INTO CHA-TYS-TRI TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS VERY SLOW TO MOVE
EAST...AND SO POPS WILL BE EXTENDED/RAISED INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WARMEST IN THE
NORTHERN PLATEAU WHERE SOME SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE...IN THE LOWER
70S...AND COOLEST EAST UNDER CLOUDS/PRECIP.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
BY SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BE MOVING TO THE COAST
AND PULLING MOISTURE NORTHEAST. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT RAINFALL CHANCES DROP TO
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND WESTERN TN
VALLEY TO INFLUENCE THE FORECAST AREA WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
SUNSHINE RETURNING EASTR SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN SATURDAY...MOSTLY LOWER TO MID 70S
POSSIBLY UPPER 70S PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST TN. LOWER PRESSURE
DEVELOPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND WEAK TROUGH FORMS OVER THE MS
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS FASTEST WITH THE
SPREAD OF MOISTURE EAST FROM THIS SYSTEM MONDAY WITH SHOWERS
STARTING AS SOON AS MONDAY MORNING. CANADIAN/UKMET AND ECMWF SLOW
SYSTEM DOWN WITH APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH FRONT TUESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGE ALOFT BUILD BACK IN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. NEW SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY CROSSES THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. SOME CLOUDS SPREAD INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT EARLY THURSDAY WITH A POSSIBLE WARM FRONT. MAIN
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
BULK OF THE WEATHER STAYS ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THEN INDUCES
FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT MARCHES EAST INTO THE TN VALLEY FRIDAY WITH GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE
OF CONVECTION WILL BE OUTSIDE OF FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
STAY NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE EXTENDED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             48  69  50  77 /  20  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  48  67  48  75 /  20  10   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       47  70  48  76 /  10  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              44  66  45  74 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 181918
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
318 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
LIGHT RAIN IS BEGINNING TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AT A
SLOW PACE...BUT OUR SW NC COUNTIES SHOULD SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL
FROM AROUND 00Z ONWARD ACCORDING TO THE RAP13 AND HRRR. THERE WILL
BE A SHARP POP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA FROM SE TO NW...WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS IN CLAY COUNTY NC TO NO POPS IN THE COUNTIES
BORDERING THE PLATEAU. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THE
WESTWARD EXTENT OF PRECIP...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE VALLEY. WILL
HAVE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE BLEEDING INTO CHA-TYS-TRI TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS VERY SLOW TO MOVE
EAST...AND SO POPS WILL BE EXTENDED/RAISED INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WARMEST IN THE
NORTHERN PLATEAU WHERE SOME SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE...IN THE LOWER
70S...AND COOLEST EAST UNDER CLOUDS/PRECIP.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
BY SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BE MOVING TO THE COAST
AND PULLING MOISTURE NORTHEAST. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT RAINFALL CHANCES DROP TO
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND WESTERN TN
VALLEY TO INFLUENCE THE FORECAST AREA WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
SUNSHINE RETURNING EASTR SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN SATURDAY...MOSTLY LOWER TO MID 70S
POSSIBLY UPPER 70S PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST TN. LOWER PRESSURE
DEVELOPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND WEAK TROUGH FORMS OVER THE MS
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS FASTEST WITH THE
SPREAD OF MOISTURE EAST FROM THIS SYSTEM MONDAY WITH SHOWERS
STARTING AS SOON AS MONDAY MORNING. CANADIAN/UKMET AND ECMWF SLOW
SYSTEM DOWN WITH APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH FRONT TUESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGE ALOFT BUILD BACK IN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. NEW SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY CROSSES THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. SOME CLOUDS SPREAD INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT EARLY THURSDAY WITH A POSSIBLE WARM FRONT. MAIN
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
BULK OF THE WEATHER STAYS ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THEN INDUCES
FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT MARCHES EAST INTO THE TN VALLEY FRIDAY WITH GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE
OF CONVECTION WILL BE OUTSIDE OF FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
STAY NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE EXTENDED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             48  69  50  77 /  20  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  48  67  48  75 /  20  10   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       47  70  48  76 /  10  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              44  66  45  74 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 181918
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
318 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
LIGHT RAIN IS BEGINNING TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AT A
SLOW PACE...BUT OUR SW NC COUNTIES SHOULD SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL
FROM AROUND 00Z ONWARD ACCORDING TO THE RAP13 AND HRRR. THERE WILL
BE A SHARP POP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA FROM SE TO NW...WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS IN CLAY COUNTY NC TO NO POPS IN THE COUNTIES
BORDERING THE PLATEAU. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THE
WESTWARD EXTENT OF PRECIP...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE VALLEY. WILL
HAVE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE BLEEDING INTO CHA-TYS-TRI TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS VERY SLOW TO MOVE
EAST...AND SO POPS WILL BE EXTENDED/RAISED INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WARMEST IN THE
NORTHERN PLATEAU WHERE SOME SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE...IN THE LOWER
70S...AND COOLEST EAST UNDER CLOUDS/PRECIP.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
BY SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BE MOVING TO THE COAST
AND PULLING MOISTURE NORTHEAST. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT RAINFALL CHANCES DROP TO
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND WESTERN TN
VALLEY TO INFLUENCE THE FORECAST AREA WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
SUNSHINE RETURNING EASTR SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN SATURDAY...MOSTLY LOWER TO MID 70S
POSSIBLY UPPER 70S PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST TN. LOWER PRESSURE
DEVELOPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND WEAK TROUGH FORMS OVER THE MS
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS FASTEST WITH THE
SPREAD OF MOISTURE EAST FROM THIS SYSTEM MONDAY WITH SHOWERS
STARTING AS SOON AS MONDAY MORNING. CANADIAN/UKMET AND ECMWF SLOW
SYSTEM DOWN WITH APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH FRONT TUESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGE ALOFT BUILD BACK IN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. NEW SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY CROSSES THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. SOME CLOUDS SPREAD INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT EARLY THURSDAY WITH A POSSIBLE WARM FRONT. MAIN
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
BULK OF THE WEATHER STAYS ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THEN INDUCES
FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT MARCHES EAST INTO THE TN VALLEY FRIDAY WITH GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE
OF CONVECTION WILL BE OUTSIDE OF FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
STAY NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE EXTENDED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             48  69  50  77 /  20  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  48  67  48  75 /  20  10   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       47  70  48  76 /  10  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              44  66  45  74 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/TD




000
FXUS64 KMEG 181724
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1224 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

.DISCUSSION...14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR FLORIDA. MEANWHILE...A WEAK OPEN WAVE
LOW AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
MORNING...WITH THE NEAREST PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ALONG THE
TENNESSEE RIVER AND ACROSS ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA. TEMPERATURES AS OF 9 AM CDT ARE
IN THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER
POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND MINOR CHANGES
ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/


DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CLOUDS OVER THE MID-SOUTH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND MUCH DEEPER CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...RADAR SHOWS SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS ARE LIGHT
OR EVEN SPRINKLES...HOWEVER...A COUPLE SPOTS HAVE SOME SHORT
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN. THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.

BY TONIGHT A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AND
BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ALONG WITH THE DRY
WEATHER THE TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY WARM EACH DAY TO NEAR 80
DEGREES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AND WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MID-SOUTH ON MONDAY NIGHT...NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE THIS SYSTEM AS IT IS WEAK AND MODELS SUGGEST IT MAY MOVE
THROUGH AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND THEN LINGER SOME ON TUESDAY. MY
THOUGHT IS BEST CHANCE IS MONDAY NIGHT...HWOEVER...LEFT POPS IN
FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT A HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND THE MID-SOUTH
WILL BE DRY AND WARM...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.   TLSJR

&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE
RAINFALL COVERAGE ISN`T EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO EVEN WARRANT
VCSH...ALTHOUGH THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE NEAR TUP. CIGS WILL
LIKELY BE 6-9K FEET THIS AFTERNOON CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.
EASTERLY WINDS 0F 5-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 181722
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1222 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
GULF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ON OFF TO THE ENE AND TAKE THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH IT. MEANWHILE HOWEVER...A NEARLY CLOSED BUT
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER LOUISIANA. THIS FEATURE WILL
KEEP CLOUDS IN THROUGH 00Z AND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN
SHOWER. CHANCES HOWEVER ARE TOO LOW TO EVEN SUPPORT A VCNTY
MENTION. OTW...LOOK FOR CLEARING TO COMMENCE AFT 00Z. LITTLE IF
ANY FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE 12Z-18Z
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...
SFC LOW SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS
COVERING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF BOTH AL AND GA. JUST A
FEW LIGHT ECHOS INDICATED IN MIDDLE TN ALONG THE TN RIVER. THE SFC
LOW WILL TRACK ENE TODAY WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MID STATE. STILL THOUGH...CLOUDINESS
SHOULD PERSIST WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING HERE
AND THERE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A VIRTUALLY CUT OFF LOW OVER
LOUISIANA. THE AXIS BY AFTERNOON WILL EXTEND NE ACROSS MIDDLE TN.
SO,,,I WILL KEEP THE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING.
OTW...TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

WILL REISSUE UPDATES TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST AND AN UPPER
LOW COMING FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLD
SHRA THIS TAF PERIOD. THE PROB FOR SHRA LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS...AND VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MILD ACROSS THE
MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 3 AM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 50S. SATELLITE PICS SHOWED A WIDE SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS
EXTENDING FROM GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE AREA NORTHWARD, UP
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HAVE ALSO OBSERVED A FINGER OF LOWER
CLOUDS, BTWN 5K AND 7K FEET DEVELOPING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF THE MID STATE, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER.

EXPECT MOST OF THE MID STATE TO BE LOCATED BETWEEN TWO RAIN AREAS
TODAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AREA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW, AND MAY NIP OUR MOST EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE OTHER AREA,
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER WESTERN
TN. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING, BUT BROAD-BRUSHED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ALL OF THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND COMING UP, AS OUR GULF LOW
MEANDERS SLOWLY EASTWARD TO OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND
PULLS MOST OF THE CLOUDS OUT OF OUR EASTERN AREAS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. EASTER SUNDAY LOOK REALLY NICE, WITH SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BRINGING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
MID STATE.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KMRX 181722
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
122 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ART THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VIRTUALYL
STEADY STATE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR...WITH BROKEN CLOUDS
AT OR ABOVE 5 KFT. WINDS WILL STAY IN A GENERAL NE DIRECTION AND
LIGHT...BUT MAY PICK UP TO NEAR 10 KTS AT CHA TOMORROW.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS



000
FXUS64 KMRX 181722
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
122 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ART THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VIRTUALYL
STEADY STATE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR...WITH BROKEN CLOUDS
AT OR ABOVE 5 KFT. WINDS WILL STAY IN A GENERAL NE DIRECTION AND
LIGHT...BUT MAY PICK UP TO NEAR 10 KTS AT CHA TOMORROW.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS



000
FXUS64 KMRX 181722
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
122 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ART THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VIRTUALYL
STEADY STATE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR...WITH BROKEN CLOUDS
AT OR ABOVE 5 KFT. WINDS WILL STAY IN A GENERAL NE DIRECTION AND
LIGHT...BUT MAY PICK UP TO NEAR 10 KTS AT CHA TOMORROW.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS



000
FXUS64 KMRX 181722
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
122 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ART THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VIRTUALYL
STEADY STATE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR...WITH BROKEN CLOUDS
AT OR ABOVE 5 KFT. WINDS WILL STAY IN A GENERAL NE DIRECTION AND
LIGHT...BUT MAY PICK UP TO NEAR 10 KTS AT CHA TOMORROW.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS



000
FXUS64 KOHX 181722
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1222 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
GULF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ON OFF TO THE ENE AND TAKE THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH IT. MEANWHILE HOWEVER...A NEARLY CLOSED BUT
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER LOUISIANA. THIS FEATURE WILL
KEEP CLOUDS IN THROUGH 00Z AND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN
SHOWER. CHANCES HOWEVER ARE TOO LOW TO EVEN SUPPORT A VCNTY
MENTION. OTW...LOOK FOR CLEARING TO COMMENCE AFT 00Z. LITTLE IF
ANY FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE 12Z-18Z
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...
SFC LOW SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS
COVERING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF BOTH AL AND GA. JUST A
FEW LIGHT ECHOS INDICATED IN MIDDLE TN ALONG THE TN RIVER. THE SFC
LOW WILL TRACK ENE TODAY WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MID STATE. STILL THOUGH...CLOUDINESS
SHOULD PERSIST WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING HERE
AND THERE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A VIRTUALLY CUT OFF LOW OVER
LOUISIANA. THE AXIS BY AFTERNOON WILL EXTEND NE ACROSS MIDDLE TN.
SO,,,I WILL KEEP THE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING.
OTW...TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

WILL REISSUE UPDATES TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST AND AN UPPER
LOW COMING FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLD
SHRA THIS TAF PERIOD. THE PROB FOR SHRA LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS...AND VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MILD ACROSS THE
MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 3 AM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 50S. SATELLITE PICS SHOWED A WIDE SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS
EXTENDING FROM GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE AREA NORTHWARD, UP
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HAVE ALSO OBSERVED A FINGER OF LOWER
CLOUDS, BTWN 5K AND 7K FEET DEVELOPING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF THE MID STATE, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER.

EXPECT MOST OF THE MID STATE TO BE LOCATED BETWEEN TWO RAIN AREAS
TODAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AREA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW, AND MAY NIP OUR MOST EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE OTHER AREA,
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER WESTERN
TN. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING, BUT BROAD-BRUSHED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ALL OF THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND COMING UP, AS OUR GULF LOW
MEANDERS SLOWLY EASTWARD TO OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND
PULLS MOST OF THE CLOUDS OUT OF OUR EASTERN AREAS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. EASTER SUNDAY LOOK REALLY NICE, WITH SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BRINGING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
MID STATE.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KMEG 181520
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1020 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

..DISCUSSION...14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR FLORIDA. MEANWHILE...A WEAK OPEN WAVE
LOW AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
MORNING...WITH THE NEAREST PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ALONG THE
TENNESSEE RIVER AND ACROSS ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA. TEMPERATURES AS OF 9 AM CDT ARE
IN THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER
POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND MINOR CHANGES
ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CLOUDS OVER THE MID-SOUTH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND MUCH DEEPER CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...RADAR SHOWS SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS ARE LIGHT
OR EVEN SPRINKLES...HOWEVER...A COUPLE SPOTS HAVE SOME SHORT
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN. THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.

BY TONIGHT A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AND
BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ALONG WITH THE DRY
WEATHER THE TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY WARM EACH DAY TO NEAR 80
DEGREES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AND WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MID-SOUTH ON MONDAY NIGHT...NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE THIS SYSTEM AS IT IS WEAK AND MODELS SUGGEST IT MAY MOVE
THROUGH AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND THEN LINGER SOME ON TUESDAY. MY
THOUGHT IS BEST CHANCE IS MONDAY NIGHT...HWOEVER...LEFT POPS IN
FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT A HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND THE MID-SOUTH
WILL BE DRY AND WARM...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.   TLSJR

&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN VICINITY DURING THE FIRST
HALF. TUP MAY SEE SOME ACTIVITY ON STATION. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT
WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT MKL AND TUP. EASTERLY WINDS 0F 5-8
KTS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM AFTER SUNSET.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMRX 181436 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1036 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN OVER AL/GA THIS MORNING IS REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY AS THE
MID-UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MS REGION. THE RUC
AND HRRR PRECIP DEPICTIONS BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP INTO OUR SW NC
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THIS SEEMS A LITTLE FAST BASED
ON OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS. WILL ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY...BUT STAY IN
THE CHANCE RAIN THROUGH 00Z...THEN RISE TO LIKELY IN SW NC AFTER
00Z. GIVEN THE OVERCAST MID-HIGH CLOUD DECK AND THE LATEST LAMP
GUIDANCE...TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FOR THE
UPDATE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS



000
FXUS64 KOHX 181436
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
936 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SFC LOW SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS
COVERING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF BOTH AL AND GA. JUST A
FEW LIGHT ECHOS INDICATED IN MIDDLE TN ALONG THE TN RIVER. THE SFC
LOW WILL TRACK ENE TODAY WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MID STATE. STILL THOUGH...CLOUDINESS
SHOULD PERSIST WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING HERE
AND THERE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A VIRTUALLY CUT OFF LOW OVER
LOUISIANA. THE AXIS BY AFTERNOON WILL EXTEND NE ACROSS MIDDLE TN.
SO,,,I WILL KEEP THE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING.
OTW...TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

WILL REISSUE UPDATES TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST AND AN UPPER
LOW COMING FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLD
SHRA THIS TAF PERIOD. THE PROB FOR SHRA LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS...AND VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MILD ACROSS THE
MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 3 AM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 50S. SATELLITE PICS SHOWED A WIDE SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS
EXTENDING FROM GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE AREA NORTHWARD, UP
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HAVE ALSO OBSERVED A FINGER OF LOWER
CLOUDS, BTWN 5K AND 7K FEET DEVELOPING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF THE MID STATE, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER.

EXPECT MOST OF THE MID STATE TO BE LOCATED BETWEEN TWO RAIN AREAS
TODAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AREA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW, AND MAY NIP OUR MOST EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE OTHER AREA,
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER WESTERN
TN. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING, BUT BROAD-BRUSHED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ALL OF THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND COMING UP, AS OUR GULF LOW
MEANDERS SLOWLY EASTWARD TO OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND
PULLS MOST OF THE CLOUDS OUT OF OUR EASTERN AREAS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. EASTER SUNDAY LOOK REALLY NICE, WITH SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BRINGING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
MID STATE.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 181436
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
936 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SFC LOW SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS
COVERING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF BOTH AL AND GA. JUST A
FEW LIGHT ECHOS INDICATED IN MIDDLE TN ALONG THE TN RIVER. THE SFC
LOW WILL TRACK ENE TODAY WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MID STATE. STILL THOUGH...CLOUDINESS
SHOULD PERSIST WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING HERE
AND THERE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A VIRTUALLY CUT OFF LOW OVER
LOUISIANA. THE AXIS BY AFTERNOON WILL EXTEND NE ACROSS MIDDLE TN.
SO,,,I WILL KEEP THE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING.
OTW...TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

WILL REISSUE UPDATES TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST AND AN UPPER
LOW COMING FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLD
SHRA THIS TAF PERIOD. THE PROB FOR SHRA LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS...AND VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MILD ACROSS THE
MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 3 AM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 50S. SATELLITE PICS SHOWED A WIDE SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS
EXTENDING FROM GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE AREA NORTHWARD, UP
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HAVE ALSO OBSERVED A FINGER OF LOWER
CLOUDS, BTWN 5K AND 7K FEET DEVELOPING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF THE MID STATE, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER.

EXPECT MOST OF THE MID STATE TO BE LOCATED BETWEEN TWO RAIN AREAS
TODAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AREA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW, AND MAY NIP OUR MOST EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE OTHER AREA,
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER WESTERN
TN. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING, BUT BROAD-BRUSHED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ALL OF THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND COMING UP, AS OUR GULF LOW
MEANDERS SLOWLY EASTWARD TO OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND
PULLS MOST OF THE CLOUDS OUT OF OUR EASTERN AREAS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. EASTER SUNDAY LOOK REALLY NICE, WITH SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BRINGING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
MID STATE.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KMEG 181132
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
632 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CLOUDS OVER THE MID-SOUTH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND MUCH DEEPER CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...RADAR SHOWS SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS ARE LIGHT
OR EVEN SPRINKLES...HOWEVER...A COUPLE SPOTS HAVE SOME SHORT
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN. THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.

BY TONIGHT A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AND
BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ALONG WITH THE DRY
WEATHER THE TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY WARM EACH DAY TO NEAR 80
DEGREES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AND WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MID-SOUTH ON MONDAY NIGHT...NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE THIS SYSTEM AS IT IS WEAK AND MODELS SUGGEST IT MAY MOVE
THROUGH AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND THEN LINGER SOME ON TUESDAY. MY
THOUGHT IS BEST CHANCE IS MONDAY NIGHT...HWOEVER...LEFT POPS IN
FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT A HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND THE MID-SOUTH
WILL BE DRY AND WARM...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.   TLSJR

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN VICINITY DURING THE FIRST
HALF. TUP MAY SEE SOME ACTIVITY ON STATION. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT
WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT MKL AND TUP. EASTERLY WINDS 0F 5-8
KTS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM AFTER SUNSET.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 181122
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
622 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST AND AN UPPER
LOW COMING FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLD
SHRA THIS TAF PERIOD. THE PROB FOR SHRA LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS...AND VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MILD ACROSS THE
MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 3 AM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 50S. SATELLITE PICS SHOWED A WIDE SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS
EXTENDING FROM GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE AREA NORTHWARD, UP
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HAVE ALSO OBSERVED A FINGER OF LOWER
CLOUDS, BTWN 5K AND 7K FEET DEVELOPING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF THE MID STATE, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER.

EXPECT MOST OF THE MID STATE TO BE LOCATED BETWEEN TWO RAIN AREAS
TODAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AREA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW, AND MAY NIP OUR MOST EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE OTHER AREA,
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER WESTERN
TN. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING, BUT BROAD-BRUSHED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ALL OF THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND COMING UP, AS OUR GULF LOW
MEANDERS SLOWLY EASTWARD TO OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND
PULLS MOST OF THE CLOUDS OUT OF OUR EASTERN AREAS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. EASTER SUNDAY LOOK REALLY NICE, WITH SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BRINGING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
MID STATE.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 181122
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
622 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST AND AN UPPER
LOW COMING FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLD
SHRA THIS TAF PERIOD. THE PROB FOR SHRA LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS...AND VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MILD ACROSS THE
MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 3 AM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 50S. SATELLITE PICS SHOWED A WIDE SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS
EXTENDING FROM GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE AREA NORTHWARD, UP
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HAVE ALSO OBSERVED A FINGER OF LOWER
CLOUDS, BTWN 5K AND 7K FEET DEVELOPING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF THE MID STATE, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER.

EXPECT MOST OF THE MID STATE TO BE LOCATED BETWEEN TWO RAIN AREAS
TODAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AREA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW, AND MAY NIP OUR MOST EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE OTHER AREA,
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER WESTERN
TN. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING, BUT BROAD-BRUSHED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ALL OF THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND COMING UP, AS OUR GULF LOW
MEANDERS SLOWLY EASTWARD TO OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND
PULLS MOST OF THE CLOUDS OUT OF OUR EASTERN AREAS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. EASTER SUNDAY LOOK REALLY NICE, WITH SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BRINGING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
MID STATE.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 181113
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
713 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHEAST WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN LOW PROBABILITIES. WILL HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
PERIOD ALL SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW



000
FXUS64 KMEG 180943
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
443 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CLOUDS OVER THE MID-SOUTH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND MUCH DEEPER CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...RADAR SHOWS SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS ARE LIGHT
OR EVEN SPRINKLES...HOWEVER...A COUPLE SPOTS HAVE SOME SHORT
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN. THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.

BY TONIGHT A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AND
BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ALONG WITH THE DRY
WEATHER THE TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY WARM EACH DAY TO NEAR 80
DEGREES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AND WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MID-SOUTH ON MONDAY NIGHT...NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE THIS SYSTEM AS IT IS WEAK AND MODELS SUGGEST IT MAY MOVE
THROUGH AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND THEN LINGER SOME ON TUESDAY. MY
THOUGHT IS BEST CHANCE IS MONDAY NIGHT...HWOEVER...LEFT POPS IN
FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT A HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND THE MID-SOUTH
WILL BE DRY AND WARM...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.   TLSJR

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE A SURFACE LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. BOTH FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
LOWER CLOUDS...THOUGH STILL VFR...INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MAINLY AFTER 08Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 15Z. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR NEAR TUP FROM 08Z THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR MEM AND MKL...BUT WILL REMAIN
SPOTTY IN COVERAGE SO WENT VCSH FOR THOSE SITES. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT...PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 KTS OUT OF THE
EAST TOMORROW BEFORE CALMING AGAIN AFTER SUNDOWN TOMORROW.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KOHX 180851
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MILD ACROSS THE
MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 3 AM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 50S. SATELLITE PICS SHOWED A WIDE SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS
EXTENDING FROM GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE AREA NORTHWARD, UP
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HAVE ALSO OBSERVED A FINGER OF LOWER
CLOUDS, BTWN 5K AND 7K FEET DEVELOPING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF THE MID STATE, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER.

EXPECT MOST OF THE MID STATE TO BE LOCATED BETWEEN TWO RAIN AREAS
TODAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AREA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW, AND MAY NIP OUR MOST EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE OTHER AREA,
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER WESTERN
TN. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING, BUT BROAD-BRUSHED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ALL OF THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND COMING UP, AS OUR GULF LOW
MEANDERS SLOWLY EASTWARD TO OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND
PULLS MOST OF THE CLOUDS OUT OF OUR EASTERN AREAS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. EASTER SUNDAY LOOK REALLY NICE, WITH SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BRINGING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
MID STATE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      69  50  75  49 /  20  10  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    69  48  74  47 /  30  10  05  05
CROSSVILLE     64  47  67  44 /  20  20  05  05
COLUMBIA       68  49  75  48 /  20  10  05  05
LAWRENCEBURG   67  48  75  47 /  20  10  05  05
WAVERLY        69  48  75  47 /  30  10  05  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 180851
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MILD ACROSS THE
MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 3 AM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 50S. SATELLITE PICS SHOWED A WIDE SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS
EXTENDING FROM GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE AREA NORTHWARD, UP
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HAVE ALSO OBSERVED A FINGER OF LOWER
CLOUDS, BTWN 5K AND 7K FEET DEVELOPING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF THE MID STATE, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER.

EXPECT MOST OF THE MID STATE TO BE LOCATED BETWEEN TWO RAIN AREAS
TODAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AREA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW, AND MAY NIP OUR MOST EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE OTHER AREA,
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER WESTERN
TN. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING, BUT BROAD-BRUSHED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ALL OF THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND COMING UP, AS OUR GULF LOW
MEANDERS SLOWLY EASTWARD TO OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND
PULLS MOST OF THE CLOUDS OUT OF OUR EASTERN AREAS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. EASTER SUNDAY LOOK REALLY NICE, WITH SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BRINGING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
MID STATE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      69  50  75  49 /  20  10  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    69  48  74  47 /  30  10  05  05
CROSSVILLE     64  47  67  44 /  20  20  05  05
COLUMBIA       68  49  75  48 /  20  10  05  05
LAWRENCEBURG   67  48  75  47 /  20  10  05  05
WAVERLY        69  48  75  47 /  30  10  05  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KMRX 180753
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
350 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST AND CUT OFF...WITH SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF TRACKING
ACROSS FLORIDA.  BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST...ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH HANDLING OF THIS
STILL EXIST WITH THE GFS STILL WANTING TO THROW MORE PRECIP WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.  WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD AN ECMWF/NAM/SREF BLEND AND
CARRY SIGNIFICANT POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS BUT MINIMAL POPS TO THE
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  PRECIP AMOUNTS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY HIGH...AND NO THUNDER EXPECTED GIVEN LACK OF
INSTABILITY.  MAV TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE OVERALL SO WILL STAY CLOSE.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT TOO FAR
APART ON EXPECTED WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON
SATURDAY THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO UPPER LOW DRIFTS EVER SO
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 12Z
SUNDAY. MAINTAINED A TIGHT POP GRADIENT FOR SHOWERS OVER THE CREST
OF THE APPALACHIANS BUT SLOWED THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHOWER ACTION BY
A FEW HOURS. WOULD EXPECT RISING MOTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS WITH SINKING MOTION WEST. THEREFORE...VERY LITTLE IF ANY
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THIS FEATURE.
RIDGING FILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW FOR SUNDAY AND THEN WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY BUILDS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY PERHAPS
GENERATING A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. NOT A GREAT DEAL
OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYSTEM GENERATING RAIN SO KEPT POPS RATHER
LOW. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAISED POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
PROGGED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MORE RIDGING BUILDS IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY DRY ADVECTION SO WAS ABLE TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             64  48  69  49 /  20  20  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  48  70  47 /  10  20  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       66  47  70  48 /  10  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              68  45  68  45 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 180753
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
350 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST AND CUT OFF...WITH SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF TRACKING
ACROSS FLORIDA.  BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST...ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH HANDLING OF THIS
STILL EXIST WITH THE GFS STILL WANTING TO THROW MORE PRECIP WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.  WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD AN ECMWF/NAM/SREF BLEND AND
CARRY SIGNIFICANT POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS BUT MINIMAL POPS TO THE
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  PRECIP AMOUNTS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY HIGH...AND NO THUNDER EXPECTED GIVEN LACK OF
INSTABILITY.  MAV TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE OVERALL SO WILL STAY CLOSE.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT TOO FAR
APART ON EXPECTED WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON
SATURDAY THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO UPPER LOW DRIFTS EVER SO
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 12Z
SUNDAY. MAINTAINED A TIGHT POP GRADIENT FOR SHOWERS OVER THE CREST
OF THE APPALACHIANS BUT SLOWED THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHOWER ACTION BY
A FEW HOURS. WOULD EXPECT RISING MOTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS WITH SINKING MOTION WEST. THEREFORE...VERY LITTLE IF ANY
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THIS FEATURE.
RIDGING FILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW FOR SUNDAY AND THEN WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY BUILDS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY PERHAPS
GENERATING A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. NOT A GREAT DEAL
OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYSTEM GENERATING RAIN SO KEPT POPS RATHER
LOW. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAISED POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
PROGGED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MORE RIDGING BUILDS IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY DRY ADVECTION SO WAS ABLE TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             64  48  69  49 /  20  20  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  48  70  47 /  10  20  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       66  47  70  48 /  10  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              68  45  68  45 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 180753
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
350 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST AND CUT OFF...WITH SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF TRACKING
ACROSS FLORIDA.  BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST...ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH HANDLING OF THIS
STILL EXIST WITH THE GFS STILL WANTING TO THROW MORE PRECIP WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.  WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD AN ECMWF/NAM/SREF BLEND AND
CARRY SIGNIFICANT POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS BUT MINIMAL POPS TO THE
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  PRECIP AMOUNTS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY HIGH...AND NO THUNDER EXPECTED GIVEN LACK OF
INSTABILITY.  MAV TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE OVERALL SO WILL STAY CLOSE.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT TOO FAR
APART ON EXPECTED WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON
SATURDAY THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO UPPER LOW DRIFTS EVER SO
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 12Z
SUNDAY. MAINTAINED A TIGHT POP GRADIENT FOR SHOWERS OVER THE CREST
OF THE APPALACHIANS BUT SLOWED THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHOWER ACTION BY
A FEW HOURS. WOULD EXPECT RISING MOTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS WITH SINKING MOTION WEST. THEREFORE...VERY LITTLE IF ANY
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THIS FEATURE.
RIDGING FILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW FOR SUNDAY AND THEN WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY BUILDS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY PERHAPS
GENERATING A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. NOT A GREAT DEAL
OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYSTEM GENERATING RAIN SO KEPT POPS RATHER
LOW. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAISED POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
PROGGED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MORE RIDGING BUILDS IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY DRY ADVECTION SO WAS ABLE TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             64  48  69  49 /  20  20  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  48  70  47 /  10  20  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       66  47  70  48 /  10  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              68  45  68  45 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 180753
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
350 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST AND CUT OFF...WITH SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF TRACKING
ACROSS FLORIDA.  BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST...ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH HANDLING OF THIS
STILL EXIST WITH THE GFS STILL WANTING TO THROW MORE PRECIP WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.  WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD AN ECMWF/NAM/SREF BLEND AND
CARRY SIGNIFICANT POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS BUT MINIMAL POPS TO THE
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  PRECIP AMOUNTS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY HIGH...AND NO THUNDER EXPECTED GIVEN LACK OF
INSTABILITY.  MAV TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE OVERALL SO WILL STAY CLOSE.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT TOO FAR
APART ON EXPECTED WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON
SATURDAY THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO UPPER LOW DRIFTS EVER SO
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 12Z
SUNDAY. MAINTAINED A TIGHT POP GRADIENT FOR SHOWERS OVER THE CREST
OF THE APPALACHIANS BUT SLOWED THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHOWER ACTION BY
A FEW HOURS. WOULD EXPECT RISING MOTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS WITH SINKING MOTION WEST. THEREFORE...VERY LITTLE IF ANY
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THIS FEATURE.
RIDGING FILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW FOR SUNDAY AND THEN WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY BUILDS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY PERHAPS
GENERATING A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. NOT A GREAT DEAL
OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYSTEM GENERATING RAIN SO KEPT POPS RATHER
LOW. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAISED POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
PROGGED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MORE RIDGING BUILDS IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY DRY ADVECTION SO WAS ABLE TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             64  48  69  49 /  20  20  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  48  70  47 /  10  20  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       66  47  70  48 /  10  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              68  45  68  45 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 180527
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
127 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHEAST WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN LOWER PROBABILITIES. WILL HAVE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS...BUT SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD
ALL SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW



000
FXUS64 KMRX 180527
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
127 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHEAST WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN LOWER PROBABILITIES. WILL HAVE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS...BUT SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD
ALL SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW



000
FXUS64 KMRX 180527
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
127 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHEAST WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN LOWER PROBABILITIES. WILL HAVE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS...BUT SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD
ALL SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW



000
FXUS64 KMRX 180527
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
127 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHEAST WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN LOWER PROBABILITIES. WILL HAVE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS...BUT SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD
ALL SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW



000
FXUS64 KMEG 180506
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1206 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...

NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST ARE PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

DISCUSSION...

A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS INDUCED SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
NOTED ON EVENING REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE OVERNIGHT
LOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER AS COMPARED TO THE PAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MODIFIED
AIRMASS. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS
MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND BACK INTO OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAVE
PREVAILED WITH TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT IN THE 60S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION CHALLENGES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN
FOR LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE THE
PRIMARY CHALLENGES IN THIS FORECAST.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. I THINK IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN UP TO PRODUCE SOME
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...HAVE HELD OFF
LOW RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GIVEN CURRENT SHORT
TERM TRENDS. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS RETURNING THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG
TERM MODELS REMAIN IN SOMEWHAT GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BETWEEN SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT TO
SUPPORT A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MAINLY
RAINFREE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE A SURFACE LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. BOTH FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
LOWER CLOUDS...THOUGH STILL VFR...INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MAINLY AFTER 08Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 15Z. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR NEAR TUP FROM 08Z THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR MEM AND MKL...BUT WILL REMAIN
SPOTTY IN COVERAGE SO WENT VCSH FOR THOSE SITES. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT...PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 KTS OUT OF THE
EAST TOMORROW BEFORE CALMING AGAIN AFTER SUNDOWN TOMORROW.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 180449
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1149 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 06Z TAF PACKAGE...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. HIGH CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVER NEXT 12
HOURS. LOWER 5KFT CEILINGS WILL SPREAD IN DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING CEILINGS TO RESULT IN ANY CATEGORY
CHANGES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...EVENING SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS A DRY, STABLE ATMOSPHERE
IN PLACE, AND DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 30`S EVEN NOW, EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH, WHERE SOME 40`S ARE BEING OBSERVED AS
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD FROM A GULF LOW SYSTEM. WE ARE NOW
GETTING SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THAT SYSTEM HERE IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, AND THE HRRR DOES SHOW A FEW WEAK ECHOES DEVELOPING
WEST OF NASHVILLE AFTER 06Z, SO THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AND BRING SOME HIGH CEILINGS TO THE MID STATE THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING. SHOULD ALSO BRING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO LOWER
CEILINGS TO ABOUT 4-5 KFT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY CATEGORY CHANGES TO
THE TAF AT ANY TERMINAL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR TO PREVAIL.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
STRUGGLE TO BRING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT
THE MID STATE. LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS PLENTY DRY AND MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ADVECTED NORTH DUE TO IT SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE A THIN SWATH
COMING UP INTO WESTERN TN. THIS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR
TWO IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.
OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS BEFORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROLL IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY TOMORROW MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPCOMING SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND SPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE AS TO
WHETHER IT WILL EFFECT THE MID STATE OR NOT. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE HIGH BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
MIDDLE TN. THE CURRENT PLAN WILL BE TO INCLUDE JUST 20 POPS OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.

OTW...SKIES TO CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NICE WEEKEND IN
STORE...INCLUDING WARMING TEMPS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY AS THE GULF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY. ON
SUNDAY...WARMER STILL...IN FACT UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVER THE MID STATE AT THAT TIME. THUS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS
APPROACH 80 DEGREES.

IN THE EXT FCST...FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO STACK WELL WITH A WEAK EASTWARD MOVING
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
MID STATE AND MID LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE WELL TO THE NORTH AS WELL.
SHOWALTERS LOOK SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND OMEGA FIELDS AND LLJ STRENGTH
LOOKS WEAK. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SCT TSTMS. BUT AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...I DONT SEE IT.

TUES NT THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN. TEMPS
HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE AS WEAK RIDGING DOMINATES THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. IN FACT...TEMPS WILL AGAIN REACH 80 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

TB12






000
FXUS64 KOHX 180449
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1149 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 06Z TAF PACKAGE...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. HIGH CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVER NEXT 12
HOURS. LOWER 5KFT CEILINGS WILL SPREAD IN DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING CEILINGS TO RESULT IN ANY CATEGORY
CHANGES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...EVENING SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS A DRY, STABLE ATMOSPHERE
IN PLACE, AND DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 30`S EVEN NOW, EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH, WHERE SOME 40`S ARE BEING OBSERVED AS
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD FROM A GULF LOW SYSTEM. WE ARE NOW
GETTING SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THAT SYSTEM HERE IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, AND THE HRRR DOES SHOW A FEW WEAK ECHOES DEVELOPING
WEST OF NASHVILLE AFTER 06Z, SO THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AND BRING SOME HIGH CEILINGS TO THE MID STATE THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING. SHOULD ALSO BRING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO LOWER
CEILINGS TO ABOUT 4-5 KFT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY CATEGORY CHANGES TO
THE TAF AT ANY TERMINAL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR TO PREVAIL.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
STRUGGLE TO BRING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT
THE MID STATE. LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS PLENTY DRY AND MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ADVECTED NORTH DUE TO IT SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE A THIN SWATH
COMING UP INTO WESTERN TN. THIS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR
TWO IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.
OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS BEFORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROLL IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY TOMORROW MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPCOMING SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND SPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE AS TO
WHETHER IT WILL EFFECT THE MID STATE OR NOT. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE HIGH BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
MIDDLE TN. THE CURRENT PLAN WILL BE TO INCLUDE JUST 20 POPS OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.

OTW...SKIES TO CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NICE WEEKEND IN
STORE...INCLUDING WARMING TEMPS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY AS THE GULF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY. ON
SUNDAY...WARMER STILL...IN FACT UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVER THE MID STATE AT THAT TIME. THUS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS
APPROACH 80 DEGREES.

IN THE EXT FCST...FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO STACK WELL WITH A WEAK EASTWARD MOVING
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
MID STATE AND MID LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE WELL TO THE NORTH AS WELL.
SHOWALTERS LOOK SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND OMEGA FIELDS AND LLJ STRENGTH
LOOKS WEAK. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SCT TSTMS. BUT AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...I DONT SEE IT.

TUES NT THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN. TEMPS
HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE AS WEAK RIDGING DOMINATES THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. IN FACT...TEMPS WILL AGAIN REACH 80 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

TB12






000
FXUS64 KOHX 180449
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1149 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 06Z TAF PACKAGE...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. HIGH CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVER NEXT 12
HOURS. LOWER 5KFT CEILINGS WILL SPREAD IN DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING CEILINGS TO RESULT IN ANY CATEGORY
CHANGES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...EVENING SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS A DRY, STABLE ATMOSPHERE
IN PLACE, AND DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 30`S EVEN NOW, EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH, WHERE SOME 40`S ARE BEING OBSERVED AS
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD FROM A GULF LOW SYSTEM. WE ARE NOW
GETTING SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THAT SYSTEM HERE IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, AND THE HRRR DOES SHOW A FEW WEAK ECHOES DEVELOPING
WEST OF NASHVILLE AFTER 06Z, SO THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AND BRING SOME HIGH CEILINGS TO THE MID STATE THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING. SHOULD ALSO BRING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO LOWER
CEILINGS TO ABOUT 4-5 KFT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY CATEGORY CHANGES TO
THE TAF AT ANY TERMINAL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR TO PREVAIL.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
STRUGGLE TO BRING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT
THE MID STATE. LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS PLENTY DRY AND MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ADVECTED NORTH DUE TO IT SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE A THIN SWATH
COMING UP INTO WESTERN TN. THIS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR
TWO IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.
OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS BEFORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROLL IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY TOMORROW MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPCOMING SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND SPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE AS TO
WHETHER IT WILL EFFECT THE MID STATE OR NOT. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE HIGH BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
MIDDLE TN. THE CURRENT PLAN WILL BE TO INCLUDE JUST 20 POPS OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.

OTW...SKIES TO CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NICE WEEKEND IN
STORE...INCLUDING WARMING TEMPS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY AS THE GULF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY. ON
SUNDAY...WARMER STILL...IN FACT UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVER THE MID STATE AT THAT TIME. THUS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS
APPROACH 80 DEGREES.

IN THE EXT FCST...FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO STACK WELL WITH A WEAK EASTWARD MOVING
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
MID STATE AND MID LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE WELL TO THE NORTH AS WELL.
SHOWALTERS LOOK SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND OMEGA FIELDS AND LLJ STRENGTH
LOOKS WEAK. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SCT TSTMS. BUT AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...I DONT SEE IT.

TUES NT THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN. TEMPS
HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE AS WEAK RIDGING DOMINATES THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. IN FACT...TEMPS WILL AGAIN REACH 80 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

TB12






000
FXUS64 KOHX 180449
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1149 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 06Z TAF PACKAGE...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. HIGH CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVER NEXT 12
HOURS. LOWER 5KFT CEILINGS WILL SPREAD IN DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING CEILINGS TO RESULT IN ANY CATEGORY
CHANGES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...EVENING SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS A DRY, STABLE ATMOSPHERE
IN PLACE, AND DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 30`S EVEN NOW, EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH, WHERE SOME 40`S ARE BEING OBSERVED AS
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD FROM A GULF LOW SYSTEM. WE ARE NOW
GETTING SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THAT SYSTEM HERE IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, AND THE HRRR DOES SHOW A FEW WEAK ECHOES DEVELOPING
WEST OF NASHVILLE AFTER 06Z, SO THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AND BRING SOME HIGH CEILINGS TO THE MID STATE THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING. SHOULD ALSO BRING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO LOWER
CEILINGS TO ABOUT 4-5 KFT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY CATEGORY CHANGES TO
THE TAF AT ANY TERMINAL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR TO PREVAIL.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
STRUGGLE TO BRING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT
THE MID STATE. LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS PLENTY DRY AND MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ADVECTED NORTH DUE TO IT SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE A THIN SWATH
COMING UP INTO WESTERN TN. THIS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR
TWO IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.
OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS BEFORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROLL IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY TOMORROW MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPCOMING SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND SPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE AS TO
WHETHER IT WILL EFFECT THE MID STATE OR NOT. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE HIGH BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
MIDDLE TN. THE CURRENT PLAN WILL BE TO INCLUDE JUST 20 POPS OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.

OTW...SKIES TO CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NICE WEEKEND IN
STORE...INCLUDING WARMING TEMPS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY AS THE GULF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY. ON
SUNDAY...WARMER STILL...IN FACT UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVER THE MID STATE AT THAT TIME. THUS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS
APPROACH 80 DEGREES.

IN THE EXT FCST...FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO STACK WELL WITH A WEAK EASTWARD MOVING
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
MID STATE AND MID LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE WELL TO THE NORTH AS WELL.
SHOWALTERS LOOK SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND OMEGA FIELDS AND LLJ STRENGTH
LOOKS WEAK. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SCT TSTMS. BUT AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...I DONT SEE IT.

TUES NT THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN. TEMPS
HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE AS WEAK RIDGING DOMINATES THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. IN FACT...TEMPS WILL AGAIN REACH 80 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

TB12






000
FXUS64 KMEG 180355
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1055 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...

NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST ARE PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS INDUCED SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
NOTED ON EVENING REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE OVERNIGHT
LOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER AS COMPARED TO THE PAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MODIFIED
AIRMASS. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

.DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS
MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND BACK INTO OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAVE
PREVAILED WITH TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT IN THE 60S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION CHALLENGES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN
FOR LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE THE
PRIMARY CHALLENGES IN THIS FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. I THINK IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN UP TO PRODUCE SOME
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...HAVE HELD OFF
LOW RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GIVEN CURRENT SHORT
TERM TRENDS. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS RETURNING THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG
TERM MODELS REMAIN IN SOMEWHAT GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BETWEEN SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT TO
SUPPORT A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MAINLY
RAINFREE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE A SURFACE LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. BOTH FEATURES WILL PUSH LOWER
CLOUDS...THOUGH STILL VFR...INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MAINLY AFTER 08Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 15Z. NOT TOO
CONFIDENT ON RAIN AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY AND WILL TAKE A
WHILE TO SATURATE...HOWEVER BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE NEAR SITES
MEM...MKL...AND TUP. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTHEAST SHIFTING
EASTERLY BY LATE TONIGHT.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 180214
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
914 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...EVENING SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS A DRY, STABLE ATMOSPHERE
IN PLACE, AND DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 30`S EVEN NOW, EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH, WHERE SOME 40`S ARE BEING OBSERVED AS
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD FROM A GULF LOW SYSTEM. WE ARE NOW
GETTING SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THAT SYSTEM HERE IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, AND THE HRRR DOES SHOW A FEW WEAK ECHOES DEVELOPING
WEST OF NASHVILLE AFTER 06Z, SO THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AND BRING SOME HIGH CEILINGS TO THE MID STATE THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING. SHOULD ALSO BRING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO LOWER
CEILINGS TO ABOUT 4-5 KFT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY CATEGORY CHANGES TO
THE TAF AT ANY TERMINAL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR TO PREVAIL.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
STRUGGLE TO BRING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT
THE MID STATE. LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS PLENTY DRY AND MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ADVECTED NORTH DUE TO IT SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE A THIN SWATH
COMING UP INTO WESTERN TN. THIS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR
TWO IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.
OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS BEFORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROLL IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY TOMORROW MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPCOMING SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND SPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE AS TO
WHETHER IT WILL EFFECT THE MID STATE OR NOT. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE HIGH BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
MIDDLE TN. THE CURRENT PLAN WILL BE TO INCLUDE JUST 20 POPS OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.

OTW...SKIES TO CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NICE WEEKEND IN
STORE...INCLUDING WARMING TEMPS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY AS THE GULF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY. ON
SUNDAY...WARMER STILL...IN FACT UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVER THE MID STATE AT THAT TIME. THUS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS
APPROACH 80 DEGREES.

IN THE EXT FCST...FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO STACK WELL WITH A WEAK EASTWARD MOVING
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
MID STATE AND MID LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE WELL TO THE NORTH AS WELL.
SHOWALTERS LOOK SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND OMEGA FIELDS AND LLJ STRENGTH
LOOKS WEAK. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SCT TSTMS. BUT AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...I DONT SEE IT.

TUES NT THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN. TEMPS
HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE AS WEAK RIDGING DOMINATES THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. IN FACT...TEMPS WILL AGAIN REACH 80 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ROSE




000
FXUS64 KOHX 180214
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
914 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...EVENING SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS A DRY, STABLE ATMOSPHERE
IN PLACE, AND DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 30`S EVEN NOW, EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH, WHERE SOME 40`S ARE BEING OBSERVED AS
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD FROM A GULF LOW SYSTEM. WE ARE NOW
GETTING SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THAT SYSTEM HERE IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, AND THE HRRR DOES SHOW A FEW WEAK ECHOES DEVELOPING
WEST OF NASHVILLE AFTER 06Z, SO THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AND BRING SOME HIGH CEILINGS TO THE MID STATE THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING. SHOULD ALSO BRING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO LOWER
CEILINGS TO ABOUT 4-5 KFT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY CATEGORY CHANGES TO
THE TAF AT ANY TERMINAL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR TO PREVAIL.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
STRUGGLE TO BRING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT
THE MID STATE. LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS PLENTY DRY AND MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ADVECTED NORTH DUE TO IT SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE A THIN SWATH
COMING UP INTO WESTERN TN. THIS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR
TWO IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.
OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS BEFORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROLL IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY TOMORROW MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPCOMING SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND SPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE AS TO
WHETHER IT WILL EFFECT THE MID STATE OR NOT. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE HIGH BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
MIDDLE TN. THE CURRENT PLAN WILL BE TO INCLUDE JUST 20 POPS OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.

OTW...SKIES TO CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NICE WEEKEND IN
STORE...INCLUDING WARMING TEMPS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY AS THE GULF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY. ON
SUNDAY...WARMER STILL...IN FACT UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVER THE MID STATE AT THAT TIME. THUS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS
APPROACH 80 DEGREES.

IN THE EXT FCST...FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO STACK WELL WITH A WEAK EASTWARD MOVING
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
MID STATE AND MID LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE WELL TO THE NORTH AS WELL.
SHOWALTERS LOOK SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND OMEGA FIELDS AND LLJ STRENGTH
LOOKS WEAK. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SCT TSTMS. BUT AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...I DONT SEE IT.

TUES NT THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN. TEMPS
HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE AS WEAK RIDGING DOMINATES THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. IN FACT...TEMPS WILL AGAIN REACH 80 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KMRX 180126
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
926 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL STATES. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW REMAIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             43  65  46  73 /  10  20  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  42  65  46  71 /   0  10  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       41  66  45  72 /   0  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              37  64  45  70 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW



000
FXUS64 KMRX 180126
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
926 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL STATES. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW REMAIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             43  65  46  73 /  10  20  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  42  65  46  71 /   0  10  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       41  66  45  72 /   0  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              37  64  45  70 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW




000
FXUS64 KMEG 172357
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
657 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS
MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND BACK INTO OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAVE
PREVAILED WITH TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT IN THE 60S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION CHALLENGES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN
FOR LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE THE
PRIMARY CHALLENGES IN THIS FORECAST.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. I THINK IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN UP TO PRODUCE SOME
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...HAVE HELD OFF
LOW RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GIVEN CURRENT SHORT
TERM TRENDS. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS RETURNING THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG
TERM MODELS REMAIN IN SOMEWHAT GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BETWEEN SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT TO
SUPPORT A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MAINLY
RAINFREE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE A SURFACE LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. BOTH FEATURES WILL PUSH LOWER
CLOUDS...THOUGH STILL VFR...INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MAINLY AFTER 08Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 15Z. NOT TOO
CONFIDENT ON RAIN AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY AND WILL TAKE A
WHILE TO SATURATE...HOWEVER BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE NEAR SITES
MEM...MKL...AND TUP. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTHEAST SHIFTING
EASTERLY BY LATE TONIGHT.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMRX 172347
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
747 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 172347
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
747 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW



000
FXUS64 KOHX 172324
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
624 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AND BRING SOME HIGH CEILINGS TO THE MID STATE THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING. SHOULD ALSO BRING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO LOWER
CEILINGS TO ABOUT 4-5 KFT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY CATEGORY CHANGES TO
THE TAF AT ANY TERMINAL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
STRUGGLE TO BRING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT
THE MID STATE. LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS PLENTY DRY AND MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ADVECTED NORTH DUE TO IT SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE A THIN SWATH
COMING UP INTO WESTERN TN. THIS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR
TWO IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.
OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS BEFORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROLL IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPCOMING SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND SPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE AS TO
WHETHER IT WILL EFFECT THE MID STATE OR NOT. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE HIGH BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
MIDDLE TN. THE CURRENT PLAN WILL BE TO INCLUDE JUST 20 POPS OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.

OTW...SKIES TO CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NICE WEEKEND IN
STORE...INCLUDING WARMING TEMPS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY AS THE GULF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY. ON
SUNDAY...WARMER STILL...IN FACT UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVER THE MID STATE AT THAT TIME. THUS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS
APPROACH 80 DEGREES.

IN THE EXT FCST...FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO STACK WELL WITH A WEAK EASTWARD MOVING
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
MID STATE AND MID LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE WELL TO THE NORTH AS WELL.
SHOWALTERS LOOK SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND OMEGA FIELDS AND LLJ STRENGTH
LOOKS WEAK. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SCT TSTMS. BUT AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...I DONT SEE IT.

TUES NT THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN. TEMPS
HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE AS WEAK RIDGING DOMINATES THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. IN FACT...TEMPS WILL AGAIN REACH 80 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

TBMEMCLIOHX 000
TTAA00 KOHX 170048

TB12





000
FXUS64 KMEG 172022
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
322 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS
MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND BACK INTO OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAVE
PREVAILED WITH TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT IN THE 60S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION CHALLENGES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN
FOR LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE THE
PRIMARY CHALLENGES IN THIS FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. I THINK IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN UP TO PRODUCE SOME
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...HAVE HELD OFF
LOW RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GIVEN CURRENT SHORT
TERM TRENDS. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS RETURNING THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG
TERM MODELS REMAIN IN SOMEWHAT GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BETWEEN SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT TO
SUPPORT A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MAINLY
RAINFREE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS TO START OFF THE PERIOD WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS PRESENT.
CEILINGS WILL BE LOWERING INTO THIS EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST FROM 8 TO 10 KNOTS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD BUT
WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY LATER IN THE PERIOD. HAVE
INCLUDED A VCSH FOR ALL SITES DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT I INCLUDED A
TEMPO FOR MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KMEM AND KMKL BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z AS
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME MODERATE
PRECIPITATION. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES AFTER
15Z...ALTHOUGH LOWER CEILINGS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 172013
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
313 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPCOMING SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND SPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE AS TO
WHETHER IT WILL EFFECT THE MID STATE OR NOT. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE HIGH BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
MIDDLE TN. THE CURRENT PLAN WILL BE TO INCLUDE JUST 20 POPS OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.

OTW...SKIES TO CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NICE WEEKEND IN
STORE...INCLUDING WARMING TEMPS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY AS THE GULF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY. ON
SUNDAY...WARMER STILL...IN FACT UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVER THE MID STATE AT THAT TIME. THUS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS
APPROACH 80 DEGREES.

IN THE EXT FCST...FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO STACK WELL WITH A WEAK EASTWARD MOVING
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
MID STATE AND MID LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE WELL TO THE NORTH AS WELL.
SHOWALTERS LOOK SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND OMEGA FIELDS AND LLJ STRENGTH
LOOKS WEAK. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SCT TSTMS. BUT AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...I DONT SEE IT.

TUES NT THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN. TEMPS
HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE AS WEAK RIDGING DOMINATES THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. IN FACT...TEMPS WILL AGAIN REACH 80 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      47  69  49  75 /  10  20  10  05
CLARKSVILLE    47  69  47  74 /  20  20  10  05
CROSSVILLE     41  64  46  69 /  10  20  10  05
COLUMBIA       48  68  48  75 /  10  20  10  05
LAWRENCEBURG   48  67  47  75 /  20  20  10  05
WAVERLY        48  69  47  75 /  20  20  10  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 172013
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
313 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPCOMING SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND SPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE AS TO
WHETHER IT WILL EFFECT THE MID STATE OR NOT. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE HIGH BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
MIDDLE TN. THE CURRENT PLAN WILL BE TO INCLUDE JUST 20 POPS OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.

OTW...SKIES TO CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NICE WEEKEND IN
STORE...INCLUDING WARMING TEMPS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY AS THE GULF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY. ON
SUNDAY...WARMER STILL...IN FACT UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVER THE MID STATE AT THAT TIME. THUS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS
APPROACH 80 DEGREES.

IN THE EXT FCST...FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO STACK WELL WITH A WEAK EASTWARD MOVING
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
MID STATE AND MID LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE WELL TO THE NORTH AS WELL.
SHOWALTERS LOOK SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND OMEGA FIELDS AND LLJ STRENGTH
LOOKS WEAK. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SCT TSTMS. BUT AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...I DONT SEE IT.

TUES NT THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN. TEMPS
HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE AS WEAK RIDGING DOMINATES THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. IN FACT...TEMPS WILL AGAIN REACH 80 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      47  69  49  75 /  10  20  10  05
CLARKSVILLE    47  69  47  74 /  20  20  10  05
CROSSVILLE     41  64  46  69 /  10  20  10  05
COLUMBIA       48  68  48  75 /  10  20  10  05
LAWRENCEBURG   48  67  47  75 /  20  20  10  05
WAVERLY        48  69  47  75 /  20  20  10  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 172013
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
313 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPCOMING SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND SPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE AS TO
WHETHER IT WILL EFFECT THE MID STATE OR NOT. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE HIGH BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
MIDDLE TN. THE CURRENT PLAN WILL BE TO INCLUDE JUST 20 POPS OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.

OTW...SKIES TO CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NICE WEEKEND IN
STORE...INCLUDING WARMING TEMPS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY AS THE GULF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY. ON
SUNDAY...WARMER STILL...IN FACT UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVER THE MID STATE AT THAT TIME. THUS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS
APPROACH 80 DEGREES.

IN THE EXT FCST...FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO STACK WELL WITH A WEAK EASTWARD MOVING
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
MID STATE AND MID LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE WELL TO THE NORTH AS WELL.
SHOWALTERS LOOK SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND OMEGA FIELDS AND LLJ STRENGTH
LOOKS WEAK. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SCT TSTMS. BUT AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...I DONT SEE IT.

TUES NT THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN. TEMPS
HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE AS WEAK RIDGING DOMINATES THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. IN FACT...TEMPS WILL AGAIN REACH 80 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      47  69  49  75 /  10  20  10  05
CLARKSVILLE    47  69  47  74 /  20  20  10  05
CROSSVILLE     41  64  46  69 /  10  20  10  05
COLUMBIA       48  68  48  75 /  10  20  10  05
LAWRENCEBURG   48  67  47  75 /  20  20  10  05
WAVERLY        48  69  47  75 /  20  20  10  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 172013
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
313 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPCOMING SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND SPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE AS TO
WHETHER IT WILL EFFECT THE MID STATE OR NOT. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE HIGH BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
MIDDLE TN. THE CURRENT PLAN WILL BE TO INCLUDE JUST 20 POPS OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.

OTW...SKIES TO CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NICE WEEKEND IN
STORE...INCLUDING WARMING TEMPS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY AS THE GULF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY. ON
SUNDAY...WARMER STILL...IN FACT UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVER THE MID STATE AT THAT TIME. THUS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS
APPROACH 80 DEGREES.

IN THE EXT FCST...FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO STACK WELL WITH A WEAK EASTWARD MOVING
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
MID STATE AND MID LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE WELL TO THE NORTH AS WELL.
SHOWALTERS LOOK SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND OMEGA FIELDS AND LLJ STRENGTH
LOOKS WEAK. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SCT TSTMS. BUT AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...I DONT SEE IT.

TUES NT THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN. TEMPS
HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE AS WEAK RIDGING DOMINATES THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. IN FACT...TEMPS WILL AGAIN REACH 80 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      47  69  49  75 /  10  20  10  05
CLARKSVILLE    47  69  47  74 /  20  20  10  05
CROSSVILLE     41  64  46  69 /  10  20  10  05
COLUMBIA       48  68  48  75 /  10  20  10  05
LAWRENCEBURG   48  67  47  75 /  20  20  10  05
WAVERLY        48  69  47  75 /  20  20  10  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KMRX 171920
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
320 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE
TONIGHT JUST OFF THE MS DELTA. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FL
PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY CUT OFF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING...KEEPING OUR AREA DRY. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THEIR QPF DEPICTIONS OVER OUR AREA
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS GENERATES MASSIVE FRONTOGENESIS ALONG
THE MTNS...AND TRACKS THE LOW FARTHER NORTH INTO GA. THE
NAM...SREF...AND ECMWF DO NOT SHOW THE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND KEEP
THE LOW OVER FL...AND THE QPF WELL TO OUR EAST. A DOWNSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT COULD ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN KEEPING THE VALLEY DRY. WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER MODEL SOLUTION IN THE VALLEY AND PLATEAU...BUT
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN SW NC AND THE MOUNTAINS TO MAINTAIN SOME
POP/QPF CONTINUITY WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...GENERALLY STAYED NEAR A
BLEND OF NAM/GFS MOS FOR HIGHS.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO ATLANTIC SATURDAY. FORECAST AREA MOSTLY WEST OF RAIN
AREA THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST. A FEW SHOWERS EARLY
SATURDAY SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA WITH CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN
BORDER. THEN HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. GFS MODEL MUCH
FARTHER NORTH WITH MOISTURE SHIELD SO PREFER NAM/ECMWF WHICH KEEPS
THE DEEP MOISTURE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY. LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY A WEAK SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
HINDERED SOME BY CLOUD COVER SATURDAY BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL AND
THEN WILL WARM SLIGHTLY SUNDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE. FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES STAY AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS
WEAK FRONT TUESDAY WILL HAVE LITTLE COOLING AFFECT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  43  66  46 /   0  10  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  42  66  46 /   0   0  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  41  67  45 /   0   0  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              69  37  65  45 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/TD



000
FXUS64 KMRX 171920
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
320 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE
TONIGHT JUST OFF THE MS DELTA. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FL
PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY CUT OFF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING...KEEPING OUR AREA DRY. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THEIR QPF DEPICTIONS OVER OUR AREA
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS GENERATES MASSIVE FRONTOGENESIS ALONG
THE MTNS...AND TRACKS THE LOW FARTHER NORTH INTO GA. THE
NAM...SREF...AND ECMWF DO NOT SHOW THE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND KEEP
THE LOW OVER FL...AND THE QPF WELL TO OUR EAST. A DOWNSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT COULD ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN KEEPING THE VALLEY DRY. WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER MODEL SOLUTION IN THE VALLEY AND PLATEAU...BUT
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN SW NC AND THE MOUNTAINS TO MAINTAIN SOME
POP/QPF CONTINUITY WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...GENERALLY STAYED NEAR A
BLEND OF NAM/GFS MOS FOR HIGHS.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO ATLANTIC SATURDAY. FORECAST AREA MOSTLY WEST OF RAIN
AREA THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST. A FEW SHOWERS EARLY
SATURDAY SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA WITH CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN
BORDER. THEN HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. GFS MODEL MUCH
FARTHER NORTH WITH MOISTURE SHIELD SO PREFER NAM/ECMWF WHICH KEEPS
THE DEEP MOISTURE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY. LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY A WEAK SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
HINDERED SOME BY CLOUD COVER SATURDAY BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL AND
THEN WILL WARM SLIGHTLY SUNDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE. FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES STAY AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS
WEAK FRONT TUESDAY WILL HAVE LITTLE COOLING AFFECT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  43  66  46 /   0  10  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  42  66  46 /   0   0  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  41  67  45 /   0   0  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              69  37  65  45 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/TD



000
FXUS64 KMRX 171920
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
320 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE
TONIGHT JUST OFF THE MS DELTA. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FL
PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY CUT OFF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING...KEEPING OUR AREA DRY. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THEIR QPF DEPICTIONS OVER OUR AREA
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS GENERATES MASSIVE FRONTOGENESIS ALONG
THE MTNS...AND TRACKS THE LOW FARTHER NORTH INTO GA. THE
NAM...SREF...AND ECMWF DO NOT SHOW THE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND KEEP
THE LOW OVER FL...AND THE QPF WELL TO OUR EAST. A DOWNSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT COULD ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN KEEPING THE VALLEY DRY. WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER MODEL SOLUTION IN THE VALLEY AND PLATEAU...BUT
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN SW NC AND THE MOUNTAINS TO MAINTAIN SOME
POP/QPF CONTINUITY WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...GENERALLY STAYED NEAR A
BLEND OF NAM/GFS MOS FOR HIGHS.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO ATLANTIC SATURDAY. FORECAST AREA MOSTLY WEST OF RAIN
AREA THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST. A FEW SHOWERS EARLY
SATURDAY SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA WITH CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN
BORDER. THEN HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. GFS MODEL MUCH
FARTHER NORTH WITH MOISTURE SHIELD SO PREFER NAM/ECMWF WHICH KEEPS
THE DEEP MOISTURE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY. LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY A WEAK SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
HINDERED SOME BY CLOUD COVER SATURDAY BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL AND
THEN WILL WARM SLIGHTLY SUNDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE. FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES STAY AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS
WEAK FRONT TUESDAY WILL HAVE LITTLE COOLING AFFECT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  43  66  46 /   0  10  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  42  66  46 /   0   0  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  41  67  45 /   0   0  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              69  37  65  45 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/TD



000
FXUS64 KMRX 171920
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
320 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE
TONIGHT JUST OFF THE MS DELTA. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FL
PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY CUT OFF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING...KEEPING OUR AREA DRY. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THEIR QPF DEPICTIONS OVER OUR AREA
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS GENERATES MASSIVE FRONTOGENESIS ALONG
THE MTNS...AND TRACKS THE LOW FARTHER NORTH INTO GA. THE
NAM...SREF...AND ECMWF DO NOT SHOW THE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND KEEP
THE LOW OVER FL...AND THE QPF WELL TO OUR EAST. A DOWNSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT COULD ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN KEEPING THE VALLEY DRY. WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER MODEL SOLUTION IN THE VALLEY AND PLATEAU...BUT
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN SW NC AND THE MOUNTAINS TO MAINTAIN SOME
POP/QPF CONTINUITY WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...GENERALLY STAYED NEAR A
BLEND OF NAM/GFS MOS FOR HIGHS.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO ATLANTIC SATURDAY. FORECAST AREA MOSTLY WEST OF RAIN
AREA THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST. A FEW SHOWERS EARLY
SATURDAY SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA WITH CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN
BORDER. THEN HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. GFS MODEL MUCH
FARTHER NORTH WITH MOISTURE SHIELD SO PREFER NAM/ECMWF WHICH KEEPS
THE DEEP MOISTURE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY. LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY A WEAK SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
HINDERED SOME BY CLOUD COVER SATURDAY BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL AND
THEN WILL WARM SLIGHTLY SUNDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE. FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES STAY AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS
WEAK FRONT TUESDAY WILL HAVE LITTLE COOLING AFFECT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  43  66  46 /   0  10  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  42  66  46 /   0   0  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  41  67  45 /   0   0  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              69  37  65  45 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/TD



000
FXUS64 KOHX 171821
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
121 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...
BRINGING LOWER CLOUDS BACK INTO THE PICTURE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 3KFT WELL INTO FRIDAY HOWEVER. A
FEW VCNTY SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NEAR CKV.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
TEMPS WARMING SLIGHTY ABOVE FORECASTED LEVELS THUS BUMPED UP A
BIT. ALSO RAISE WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES EAST...AND WARM SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP. SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS TODAY...
CIGS IN THE 5KFT TO 15KFT RANGE MOVING IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
DISTURBANCE.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STAYED UP HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
ALONG WITH SOME BKN CI ACROSS THE MID STATE. SFC OBS AND SHORT
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MAYBE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCATIONS
THAT ARE LOW LYING AND SHELTERED GETTING INTO THE UPPER 30S...MAINLY
PLATEAU...BUT EVEN THESE COULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THUS...WILL
CANCEL BOTH MY FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING PREVIOUSLY ISSUED
THROUGH 9 AM TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 254 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.

FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR CHANCES ON FRI...WX PATTERN FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK...TEMPS.

WILL BE CONTINUING WITH THE FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING THRU 9 AM
THIS MORNING AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS NOW MOVING INTO ERN PORTIONS
OF THE MID STATE...AND SHOULD BE MAINLY E OF THE MID STATE AS SUNRISE
APPROACHES...AND WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES...AND PER MAX RADIATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL...SOME LOW LYING LOCATIONS W OF THE PLATEAU AND
ACROSS THE PLATEAU COULD EXPERIENCE PATCHY FROST.

EXPECTING AGAIN A QUICK WARMUP FROM LOWS THIS MORNING WITH SLY SFC
FLOW BECOMING A LITTLE MORE ESTABLISHED TODAY...BUT RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL STILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE
INCREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.
AS SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE MID STATE
LATE TONIGHT....ENOUGH MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND LIFT MAY BE
PRESENT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS APPROACHING THE TN RIVER VALLEY
LATE...OTHERWISE EXPECTING AND END TO THE LOW TEMPS WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS...WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE MID 40S. MODELS CONTINUING THEIR TREND OF THIS WX SYSTEM
WEAKENING IT AS IT APPROACHES THE MID STATE...AND WILL GO WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHWRS TO
THE SE OF THE MID STATE ON FRI. EXPECTING SOME DECREASING CLOUDINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. RIDGING
INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL BECOME EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH HIGHS
ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES...MAINLY IN
THE MID 70S ON SAT. EXPECT EVEN A FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGING
INFLUENCES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPS...AS LOWS
SUN MORNING WILL BE MAINLY AROUND 50 WITH HIGHS ON SUN APPROACHING
THE UPPER 70S.

SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO INFLUENCE
THE MID STATE`S WX PATTERN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
LATEST EURO/GFS SHIFTING MOST OF THE SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY INTO THE MON
NIGHT THRU TUE TIME FRAME WITH OUR OLD FRIEND DGEX MOVING A SWATH
OF SHWRS/TSTMS THRU THE AREA MON/MON NIGHT. PER THE RECOMMENDATION
OF THE LATEST EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION FROM WPC...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE MORE CONSERVATIVE EURO/GFS SOLUTIONS HERE FOR TIMING...
WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE MID 70S. RIDGING INFLUENCES WILL AGAIN
BUILD AND BE PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU THE MID PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK ALSO WITH HIGHS REMAINING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE NORMS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

31

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KOHX 171821
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
121 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...
BRINGING LOWER CLOUDS BACK INTO THE PICTURE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 3KFT WELL INTO FRIDAY HOWEVER. A
FEW VCNTY SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NEAR CKV.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
TEMPS WARMING SLIGHTY ABOVE FORECASTED LEVELS THUS BUMPED UP A
BIT. ALSO RAISE WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES EAST...AND WARM SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP. SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS TODAY...
CIGS IN THE 5KFT TO 15KFT RANGE MOVING IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
DISTURBANCE.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STAYED UP HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
ALONG WITH SOME BKN CI ACROSS THE MID STATE. SFC OBS AND SHORT
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MAYBE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCATIONS
THAT ARE LOW LYING AND SHELTERED GETTING INTO THE UPPER 30S...MAINLY
PLATEAU...BUT EVEN THESE COULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THUS...WILL
CANCEL BOTH MY FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING PREVIOUSLY ISSUED
THROUGH 9 AM TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 254 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.

FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR CHANCES ON FRI...WX PATTERN FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK...TEMPS.

WILL BE CONTINUING WITH THE FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING THRU 9 AM
THIS MORNING AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS NOW MOVING INTO ERN PORTIONS
OF THE MID STATE...AND SHOULD BE MAINLY E OF THE MID STATE AS SUNRISE
APPROACHES...AND WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES...AND PER MAX RADIATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL...SOME LOW LYING LOCATIONS W OF THE PLATEAU AND
ACROSS THE PLATEAU COULD EXPERIENCE PATCHY FROST.

EXPECTING AGAIN A QUICK WARMUP FROM LOWS THIS MORNING WITH SLY SFC
FLOW BECOMING A LITTLE MORE ESTABLISHED TODAY...BUT RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL STILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE
INCREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.
AS SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE MID STATE
LATE TONIGHT....ENOUGH MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND LIFT MAY BE
PRESENT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS APPROACHING THE TN RIVER VALLEY
LATE...OTHERWISE EXPECTING AND END TO THE LOW TEMPS WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS...WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE MID 40S. MODELS CONTINUING THEIR TREND OF THIS WX SYSTEM
WEAKENING IT AS IT APPROACHES THE MID STATE...AND WILL GO WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHWRS TO
THE SE OF THE MID STATE ON FRI. EXPECTING SOME DECREASING CLOUDINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. RIDGING
INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL BECOME EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH HIGHS
ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES...MAINLY IN
THE MID 70S ON SAT. EXPECT EVEN A FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGING
INFLUENCES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPS...AS LOWS
SUN MORNING WILL BE MAINLY AROUND 50 WITH HIGHS ON SUN APPROACHING
THE UPPER 70S.

SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO INFLUENCE
THE MID STATE`S WX PATTERN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
LATEST EURO/GFS SHIFTING MOST OF THE SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY INTO THE MON
NIGHT THRU TUE TIME FRAME WITH OUR OLD FRIEND DGEX MOVING A SWATH
OF SHWRS/TSTMS THRU THE AREA MON/MON NIGHT. PER THE RECOMMENDATION
OF THE LATEST EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION FROM WPC...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE MORE CONSERVATIVE EURO/GFS SOLUTIONS HERE FOR TIMING...
WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE MID 70S. RIDGING INFLUENCES WILL AGAIN
BUILD AND BE PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU THE MID PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK ALSO WITH HIGHS REMAINING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE NORMS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

31

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07






000
FXUS64 KMEG 171754
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1254 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER
WISCONSIN WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS MISSOURI
AND INTO OKLAHOMA/TEXAS. TEMPERATURES AS OF 9 AM CDT ARE IN THE
50S ACROSS MOST OF THE MID SOUTH. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER/TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. SOME
LOCATIONS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER COULD STILL SEE TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE MID 30S THIS MORNING SO HAVE KEPT FROST ADVISORY
GOING UNTIL 9 AM. HOPEFULLY THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST TIME WE DEAL
WITH TEMPERATURES THIS CLOSE TO FREEZING FOR SEVERAL MONTHS.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT SHOULD NOT
AFFECT THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY SO IT SHOULD
BE SUNNY A LITTLE WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. BY THIS EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL START TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

BY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS AND FALLS APART SO IT APPEARS
THAT IT SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. DRY AND WARM WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS IT DOES
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS EARLY
AS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT
GETS CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL INCREASE. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT QUITE REACH THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH SO THERE WILL ONLY BE A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
DRY AND FAIRLY WARM. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE 80 DEGREES
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS TO START OFF THE PERIOD WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS PRESENT.
CEILINGS WILL BE LOWERING INTO THIS EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST FROM 8 TO 10 KNOTS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD BUT
WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY LATER IN THE PERIOD. HAVE
INCLUDED A VCSH FOR ALL SITES DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT I INCLUDED A
TEMPO FOR MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KMEM AND KMKL BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z AS
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME MODERATE
PRECIPITATION. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES AFTER
15Z...ALTHOUGH LOWER CEILINGS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 171552
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1052 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
TEMPS WARMING SLIGHTY ABOVE FORECASTED LEVELS THUS BUMPED UP A
BIT. ALSO RAISE WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES EAST...AND WARM SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP. SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS TODAY...
CIGS IN THE 5KFT TO 15KFT RANGE MOVING IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
DISTURBANCE.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STAYED UP HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
ALONG WITH SOME BKN CI ACROSS THE MID STATE. SFC OBS AND SHORT
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MAYBE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCATIONS
THAT ARE LOW LYING AND SHELTERED GETTING INTO THE UPPER 30S...MAINLY
PLATEAU...BUT EVEN THESE COULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THUS...WILL
CANCEL BOTH MY FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING PREVIOUSLY ISSUED
THROUGH 9 AM TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 254 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.

FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR CHANCES ON FRI...WX PATTERN FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK...TEMPS.

WILL BE CONTINUING WITH THE FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING THRU 9 AM
THIS MORNING AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS NOW MOVING INTO ERN PORTIONS
OF THE MID STATE...AND SHOULD BE MAINLY E OF THE MID STATE AS SUNRISE
APPROACHES...AND WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES...AND PER MAX RADIATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL...SOME LOW LYING LOCATIONS W OF THE PLATEAU AND
ACROSS THE PLATEAU COULD EXPERIENCE PATCHY FROST.

EXPECTING AGAIN A QUICK WARMUP FROM LOWS THIS MORNING WITH SLY SFC
FLOW BECOMING A LITTLE MORE ESTABLISHED TODAY...BUT RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL STILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE
INCREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.
AS SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE MID STATE
LATE TONIGHT....ENOUGH MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND LIFT MAY BE
PRESENT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS APPROACHING THE TN RIVER VALLEY
LATE...OTHERWISE EXPECTING AND END TO THE LOW TEMPS WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS...WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE MID 40S. MODELS CONTINUING THEIR TREND OF THIS WX SYSTEM
WEAKENING IT AS IT APPROACHES THE MID STATE...AND WILL GO WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHWRS TO
THE SE OF THE MID STATE ON FRI. EXPECTING SOME DECREASING CLOUDINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. RIDGING
INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL BECOME EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH HIGHS
ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES...MAINLY IN
THE MID 70S ON SAT. EXPECT EVEN A FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGING
INFLUENCES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPS...AS LOWS
SUN MORNING WILL BE MAINLY AROUND 50 WITH HIGHS ON SUN APPROACHING
THE UPPER 70S.

SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO INFLUENCE
THE MID STATE`S WX PATTERN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
LATEST EURO/GFS SHIFTING MOST OF THE SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY INTO THE MON
NIGHT THRU TUE TIME FRAME WITH OUR OLD FRIEND DGEX MOVING A SWATH
OF SHWRS/TSTMS THRU THE AREA MON/MON NIGHT. PER THE RECOMMENDATION
OF THE LATEST EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION FROM WPC...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE MORE CONSERVATIVE EURO/GFS SOLUTIONS HERE FOR TIMING...
WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE MID 70S. RIDGING INFLUENCES WILL AGAIN
BUILD AND BE PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU THE MID PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK ALSO WITH HIGHS REMAINING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE NORMS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

31

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07






000
FXUS64 KMEG 171501
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1001 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER
WISCONSIN WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS MISSOURI
AND INTO OKLAHOMA/TEXAS. TEMPERATURES AS OF 9 AM CDT ARE IN THE
50S ACROSS MOST OF THE MID SOUTH. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER/TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. SOME
LOCATIONS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER COULD STILL SEE TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE MID 30S THIS MORNING SO HAVE KEPT FROST ADVISORY
GOING UNTIL 9 AM. HOPEFULLY THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST TIME WE DEAL
WITH TEMPERATURES THIS CLOSE TO FREEZING FOR SEVERAL MONTHS.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT SHOULD NOT
AFFECT THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY SO IT SHOULD
BE SUNNY A LITTLE WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. BY THIS EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL START TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

BY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS AND FALLS APART SO IT APPEARS
THAT IT SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. DRY AND WARM WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS IT DOES
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS EARLY
AS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT
GETS CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL INCREASE. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT QUITE REACH THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH SO THERE WILL ONLY BE A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
DRY AND FAIRLY WARM. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE 80 DEGREES
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH WINDS WILL
BE INCREASING TO 8-10 KTS THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5 KTS
OR LESS TONIGHT. LOWER CLOUDS...THOUGH STILL VFR...WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE REGION. A FEW SHRAS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMRX 171421 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1021 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS APPEAR TO BE REASONABLY ON TRACK SO FAR THIS
MORNING...SO NO UPDATE IS PLANNED. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO
OUR EAST...A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
TODAY...ALONG WITH SOME SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE WARMING IN NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEAR WATCHING...AS
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE IN MOST
SPOTS...AND WINDS MAY APPROACH 10 MPH AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  44  65  46 /   0  10  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  42  64  46 /   0   0  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  41  64  46 /   0   0  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              69  36  63  42 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS



000
FXUS64 KOHX 171115
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
615 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES EAST...AND WARM SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP. SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS TODAY...
CIGS IN THE 5KFT TO 15KFT RANGE MOVING IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
DISTURBANCE.

13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STAYED UP HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
ALONG WITH SOME BKN CI ACROSS THE MID STATE. SFC OBS AND SHORT
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MAYBE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCATIONS
THAT ARE LOW LYING AND SHELTERED GETTING INTO THE UPPER 30S...MAINLY
PLATEAU...BUT EVEN THESE COULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THUS...WILL
CANCEL BOTH MY FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING PREVIOUSLY ISSUED
THROUGH 9 AM TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 254 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.

FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR CHANCES ON FRI...WX PATTERN FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK...TEMPS.

WILL BE CONTINUING WITH THE FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING THRU 9 AM
THIS MORNING AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS NOW MOVING INTO ERN PORTIONS
OF THE MID STATE...AND SHOULD BE MAINLY E OF THE MID STATE AS SUNRISE
APPROACHES...AND WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES...AND PER MAX RADIATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL...SOME LOW LYING LOCATIONS W OF THE PLATEAU AND
ACROSS THE PLATEAU COULD EXPERIENCE PATCHY FROST.

EXPECTING AGAIN A QUICK WARMUP FROM LOWS THIS MORNING WITH SLY SFC
FLOW BECOMING A LITTLE MORE ESTABLISHED TODAY...BUT RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL STILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE
INCREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.
AS SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE MID STATE
LATE TONIGHT....ENOUGH MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND LIFT MAY BE
PRESENT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS APPROACHING THE TN RIVER VALLEY
LATE...OTHERWISE EXPECTING AND END TO THE LOW TEMPS WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS...WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE MID 40S. MODELS CONTINUING THEIR TREND OF THIS WX SYSTEM
WEAKENING IT AS IT APPROACHES THE MID STATE...AND WILL GO WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHWRS TO
THE SE OF THE MID STATE ON FRI. EXPECTING SOME DECREASING CLOUDINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. RIDGING
INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL BECOME EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH HIGHS
ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES...MAINLY IN
THE MID 70S ON SAT. EXPECT EVEN A FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGING
INFLUENCES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPS...AS LOWS
SUN MORNING WILL BE MAINLY AROUND 50 WITH HIGHS ON SUN APPROACHING
THE UPPER 70S.

SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO INFLUENCE
THE MID STATE`S WX PATTERN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
LATEST EURO/GFS SHIFTING MOST OF THE SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY INTO THE MON
NIGHT THRU TUE TIME FRAME WITH OUR OLD FRIEND DGEX MOVING A SWATH
OF SHWRS/TSTMS THRU THE AREA MON/MON NIGHT. PER THE RECOMMENDATION
OF THE LATEST EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION FROM WPC...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE MORE CONSERVATIVE EURO/GFS SOLUTIONS HERE FOR TIMING...
WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE MID 70S. RIDGING INFLUENCES WILL AGAIN
BUILD AND BE PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU THE MID PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK ALSO WITH HIGHS REMAINING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE NORMS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

31

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 171115
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
615 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES EAST...AND WARM SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP. SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS TODAY...
CIGS IN THE 5KFT TO 15KFT RANGE MOVING IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
DISTURBANCE.

13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STAYED UP HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
ALONG WITH SOME BKN CI ACROSS THE MID STATE. SFC OBS AND SHORT
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MAYBE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCATIONS
THAT ARE LOW LYING AND SHELTERED GETTING INTO THE UPPER 30S...MAINLY
PLATEAU...BUT EVEN THESE COULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THUS...WILL
CANCEL BOTH MY FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING PREVIOUSLY ISSUED
THROUGH 9 AM TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 254 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.

FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR CHANCES ON FRI...WX PATTERN FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK...TEMPS.

WILL BE CONTINUING WITH THE FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING THRU 9 AM
THIS MORNING AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS NOW MOVING INTO ERN PORTIONS
OF THE MID STATE...AND SHOULD BE MAINLY E OF THE MID STATE AS SUNRISE
APPROACHES...AND WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES...AND PER MAX RADIATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL...SOME LOW LYING LOCATIONS W OF THE PLATEAU AND
ACROSS THE PLATEAU COULD EXPERIENCE PATCHY FROST.

EXPECTING AGAIN A QUICK WARMUP FROM LOWS THIS MORNING WITH SLY SFC
FLOW BECOMING A LITTLE MORE ESTABLISHED TODAY...BUT RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL STILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE
INCREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.
AS SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE MID STATE
LATE TONIGHT....ENOUGH MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND LIFT MAY BE
PRESENT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS APPROACHING THE TN RIVER VALLEY
LATE...OTHERWISE EXPECTING AND END TO THE LOW TEMPS WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS...WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE MID 40S. MODELS CONTINUING THEIR TREND OF THIS WX SYSTEM
WEAKENING IT AS IT APPROACHES THE MID STATE...AND WILL GO WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHWRS TO
THE SE OF THE MID STATE ON FRI. EXPECTING SOME DECREASING CLOUDINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. RIDGING
INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL BECOME EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH HIGHS
ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES...MAINLY IN
THE MID 70S ON SAT. EXPECT EVEN A FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGING
INFLUENCES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPS...AS LOWS
SUN MORNING WILL BE MAINLY AROUND 50 WITH HIGHS ON SUN APPROACHING
THE UPPER 70S.

SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO INFLUENCE
THE MID STATE`S WX PATTERN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
LATEST EURO/GFS SHIFTING MOST OF THE SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY INTO THE MON
NIGHT THRU TUE TIME FRAME WITH OUR OLD FRIEND DGEX MOVING A SWATH
OF SHWRS/TSTMS THRU THE AREA MON/MON NIGHT. PER THE RECOMMENDATION
OF THE LATEST EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION FROM WPC...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE MORE CONSERVATIVE EURO/GFS SOLUTIONS HERE FOR TIMING...
WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE MID 70S. RIDGING INFLUENCES WILL AGAIN
BUILD AND BE PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU THE MID PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK ALSO WITH HIGHS REMAINING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE NORMS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

31

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 171111
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
712 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE
RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR CHA WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND
10KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY CLOUD COVER WILL BE HIGH
AND MID-LEVEL.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JOHNSON-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     THURSDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-UNION-
     WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 171111
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
712 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE
RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR CHA WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND
10KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY CLOUD COVER WILL BE HIGH
AND MID-LEVEL.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JOHNSON-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     THURSDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-UNION-
     WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 171024
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
524 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. SOME
LOCATIONS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER COULD STILL SEE TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE MID 30S THIS MORNING SO HAVE KEPT FROST ADVISORY
GOING UNTIL 9 AM. HOPEFULLY THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST TIME WE DEAL
WITH TEMPERATURES THIS CLOSE TO FREEZING FOR SEVERAL MONTHS.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT SHOULD NOT
AFFECT THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY SO IT SHOULD
BE SUNNY A LITTLE WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. BY THIS EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL START TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

BY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS AND FALLS APART SO IT APPEARS
THAT IT SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. DRY AND WARM WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS IT DOES
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS EARLY
AS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT
GETS CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL INCREASE. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT QUITE REACH THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH SO THERE WILL ONLY BE A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
DRY AND FAIRLY WARM. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE 80 DEGREES
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH WINDS WILL
BE INCREASING TO 8-10 KTS THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5 KTS
OR LESS TONIGHT. LOWER CLOUDS...THOUGH STILL VFR...WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE REGION. A FEW SHRAS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALCORN-TISHOMINGO.

TN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-DECATUR-HARDIN-HENDERSON-HENRY-MCNAIRY-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 171010 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
510 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STAYED UP HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
ALONG WITH SOME BKN CI ACROSS THE MID STATE. SFC OBS AND SHORT
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MAYBE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCATIONS
THAT ARE LOW LYING AND SHELTERED GETTING INTO THE UPPER 30S...MAINLY
PLATEAU...BUT EVEN THESE COULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THUS...WILL
CANCEL BOTH MY FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING PREVIOUSLY ISSUED
THROUGH 9 AM TODAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 254 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.

FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR CHANCES ON FRI...WX PATTERN FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK...TEMPS.

WILL BE CONTINUING WITH THE FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING THRU 9 AM
THIS MORNING AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS NOW MOVING INTO ERN PORTIONS
OF THE MID STATE...AND SHOULD BE MAINLY E OF THE MID STATE AS SUNRISE
APPROACHES...AND WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES...AND PER MAX RADIATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL...SOME LOW LYING LOCATIONS W OF THE PLATEAU AND
ACROSS THE PLATEAU COULD EXPERIENCE PATCHY FROST.

EXPECTING AGAIN A QUICK WARMUP FROM LOWS THIS MORNING WITH SLY SFC
FLOW BECOMING A LITTLE MORE ESTABLISHED TODAY...BUT RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL STILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE
INCREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.
AS SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE MID STATE
LATE TONIGHT....ENOUGH MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND LIFT MAY BE
PRESENT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS APPROACHING THE TN RIVER VALLEY
LATE...OTHERWISE EXPECTING AND END TO THE LOW TEMPS WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS...WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE MID 40S. MODELS CONTINUING THEIR TREND OF THIS WX SYSTEM
WEAKENING IT AS IT APPROACHES THE MID STATE...AND WILL GO WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHWRS TO
THE SE OF THE MID STATE ON FRI. EXPECTING SOME DECREASING CLOUDINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. RIDGING
INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL BECOME EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH HIGHS
ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES...MAINLY IN
THE MID 70S ON SAT. EXPECT EVEN A FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGING
INFLUENCES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPS...AS LOWS
SUN MORNING WILL BE MAINLY AROUND 50 WITH HIGHS ON SUN APPROACHING
THE UPPER 70S.

SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO INFLUENCE
THE MID STATE`S WX PATTERN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
LATEST EURO/GFS SHIFTING MOST OF THE SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY INTO THE MON
NIGHT THRU TUE TIME FRAME WITH OUR OLD FRIEND DGEX MOVING A SWATH
OF SHWRS/TSTMS THRU THE AREA MON/MON NIGHT. PER THE RECOMMENDATION
OF THE LATEST EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION FROM WPC...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE MORE CONSERVATIVE EURO/GFS SOLUTIONS HERE FOR TIMING...
WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE MID 70S. RIDGING INFLUENCES WILL AGAIN
BUILD AND BE PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU THE MID PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK ALSO WITH HIGHS REMAINING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE NORMS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ011-032>034-
065-066-078>080.

FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ007>010-
026>031-059-061>064-075-077.

&&

$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 171010 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
510 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STAYED UP HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
ALONG WITH SOME BKN CI ACROSS THE MID STATE. SFC OBS AND SHORT
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MAYBE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCATIONS
THAT ARE LOW LYING AND SHELTERED GETTING INTO THE UPPER 30S...MAINLY
PLATEAU...BUT EVEN THESE COULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THUS...WILL
CANCEL BOTH MY FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING PREVIOUSLY ISSUED
THROUGH 9 AM TODAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 254 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.

FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR CHANCES ON FRI...WX PATTERN FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK...TEMPS.

WILL BE CONTINUING WITH THE FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING THRU 9 AM
THIS MORNING AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS NOW MOVING INTO ERN PORTIONS
OF THE MID STATE...AND SHOULD BE MAINLY E OF THE MID STATE AS SUNRISE
APPROACHES...AND WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES...AND PER MAX RADIATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL...SOME LOW LYING LOCATIONS W OF THE PLATEAU AND
ACROSS THE PLATEAU COULD EXPERIENCE PATCHY FROST.

EXPECTING AGAIN A QUICK WARMUP FROM LOWS THIS MORNING WITH SLY SFC
FLOW BECOMING A LITTLE MORE ESTABLISHED TODAY...BUT RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL STILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE
INCREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.
AS SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE MID STATE
LATE TONIGHT....ENOUGH MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND LIFT MAY BE
PRESENT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS APPROACHING THE TN RIVER VALLEY
LATE...OTHERWISE EXPECTING AND END TO THE LOW TEMPS WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS...WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE MID 40S. MODELS CONTINUING THEIR TREND OF THIS WX SYSTEM
WEAKENING IT AS IT APPROACHES THE MID STATE...AND WILL GO WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHWRS TO
THE SE OF THE MID STATE ON FRI. EXPECTING SOME DECREASING CLOUDINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. RIDGING
INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL BECOME EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH HIGHS
ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES...MAINLY IN
THE MID 70S ON SAT. EXPECT EVEN A FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGING
INFLUENCES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPS...AS LOWS
SUN MORNING WILL BE MAINLY AROUND 50 WITH HIGHS ON SUN APPROACHING
THE UPPER 70S.

SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO INFLUENCE
THE MID STATE`S WX PATTERN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
LATEST EURO/GFS SHIFTING MOST OF THE SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY INTO THE MON
NIGHT THRU TUE TIME FRAME WITH OUR OLD FRIEND DGEX MOVING A SWATH
OF SHWRS/TSTMS THRU THE AREA MON/MON NIGHT. PER THE RECOMMENDATION
OF THE LATEST EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION FROM WPC...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE MORE CONSERVATIVE EURO/GFS SOLUTIONS HERE FOR TIMING...
WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE MID 70S. RIDGING INFLUENCES WILL AGAIN
BUILD AND BE PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU THE MID PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK ALSO WITH HIGHS REMAINING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE NORMS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ011-032>034-
065-066-078>080.

FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ007>010-
026>031-059-061>064-075-077.

&&

$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 171010 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
510 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STAYED UP HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
ALONG WITH SOME BKN CI ACROSS THE MID STATE. SFC OBS AND SHORT
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MAYBE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCATIONS
THAT ARE LOW LYING AND SHELTERED GETTING INTO THE UPPER 30S...MAINLY
PLATEAU...BUT EVEN THESE COULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THUS...WILL
CANCEL BOTH MY FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING PREVIOUSLY ISSUED
THROUGH 9 AM TODAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 254 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.

FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR CHANCES ON FRI...WX PATTERN FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK...TEMPS.

WILL BE CONTINUING WITH THE FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING THRU 9 AM
THIS MORNING AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS NOW MOVING INTO ERN PORTIONS
OF THE MID STATE...AND SHOULD BE MAINLY E OF THE MID STATE AS SUNRISE
APPROACHES...AND WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES...AND PER MAX RADIATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL...SOME LOW LYING LOCATIONS W OF THE PLATEAU AND
ACROSS THE PLATEAU COULD EXPERIENCE PATCHY FROST.

EXPECTING AGAIN A QUICK WARMUP FROM LOWS THIS MORNING WITH SLY SFC
FLOW BECOMING A LITTLE MORE ESTABLISHED TODAY...BUT RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL STILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE
INCREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.
AS SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE MID STATE
LATE TONIGHT....ENOUGH MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND LIFT MAY BE
PRESENT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS APPROACHING THE TN RIVER VALLEY
LATE...OTHERWISE EXPECTING AND END TO THE LOW TEMPS WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS...WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE MID 40S. MODELS CONTINUING THEIR TREND OF THIS WX SYSTEM
WEAKENING IT AS IT APPROACHES THE MID STATE...AND WILL GO WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHWRS TO
THE SE OF THE MID STATE ON FRI. EXPECTING SOME DECREASING CLOUDINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. RIDGING
INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL BECOME EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH HIGHS
ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES...MAINLY IN
THE MID 70S ON SAT. EXPECT EVEN A FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGING
INFLUENCES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPS...AS LOWS
SUN MORNING WILL BE MAINLY AROUND 50 WITH HIGHS ON SUN APPROACHING
THE UPPER 70S.

SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO INFLUENCE
THE MID STATE`S WX PATTERN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
LATEST EURO/GFS SHIFTING MOST OF THE SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY INTO THE MON
NIGHT THRU TUE TIME FRAME WITH OUR OLD FRIEND DGEX MOVING A SWATH
OF SHWRS/TSTMS THRU THE AREA MON/MON NIGHT. PER THE RECOMMENDATION
OF THE LATEST EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION FROM WPC...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE MORE CONSERVATIVE EURO/GFS SOLUTIONS HERE FOR TIMING...
WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE MID 70S. RIDGING INFLUENCES WILL AGAIN
BUILD AND BE PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU THE MID PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK ALSO WITH HIGHS REMAINING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE NORMS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ011-032>034-
065-066-078>080.

FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ007>010-
026>031-059-061>064-075-077.

&&

$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 171010 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
510 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STAYED UP HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
ALONG WITH SOME BKN CI ACROSS THE MID STATE. SFC OBS AND SHORT
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MAYBE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCATIONS
THAT ARE LOW LYING AND SHELTERED GETTING INTO THE UPPER 30S...MAINLY
PLATEAU...BUT EVEN THESE COULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THUS...WILL
CANCEL BOTH MY FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING PREVIOUSLY ISSUED
THROUGH 9 AM TODAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 254 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.

FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR CHANCES ON FRI...WX PATTERN FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK...TEMPS.

WILL BE CONTINUING WITH THE FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING THRU 9 AM
THIS MORNING AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS NOW MOVING INTO ERN PORTIONS
OF THE MID STATE...AND SHOULD BE MAINLY E OF THE MID STATE AS SUNRISE
APPROACHES...AND WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES...AND PER MAX RADIATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL...SOME LOW LYING LOCATIONS W OF THE PLATEAU AND
ACROSS THE PLATEAU COULD EXPERIENCE PATCHY FROST.

EXPECTING AGAIN A QUICK WARMUP FROM LOWS THIS MORNING WITH SLY SFC
FLOW BECOMING A LITTLE MORE ESTABLISHED TODAY...BUT RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL STILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE
INCREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.
AS SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE MID STATE
LATE TONIGHT....ENOUGH MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND LIFT MAY BE
PRESENT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS APPROACHING THE TN RIVER VALLEY
LATE...OTHERWISE EXPECTING AND END TO THE LOW TEMPS WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS...WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE MID 40S. MODELS CONTINUING THEIR TREND OF THIS WX SYSTEM
WEAKENING IT AS IT APPROACHES THE MID STATE...AND WILL GO WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHWRS TO
THE SE OF THE MID STATE ON FRI. EXPECTING SOME DECREASING CLOUDINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. RIDGING
INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL BECOME EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH HIGHS
ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES...MAINLY IN
THE MID 70S ON SAT. EXPECT EVEN A FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGING
INFLUENCES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPS...AS LOWS
SUN MORNING WILL BE MAINLY AROUND 50 WITH HIGHS ON SUN APPROACHING
THE UPPER 70S.

SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO INFLUENCE
THE MID STATE`S WX PATTERN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
LATEST EURO/GFS SHIFTING MOST OF THE SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY INTO THE MON
NIGHT THRU TUE TIME FRAME WITH OUR OLD FRIEND DGEX MOVING A SWATH
OF SHWRS/TSTMS THRU THE AREA MON/MON NIGHT. PER THE RECOMMENDATION
OF THE LATEST EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION FROM WPC...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE MORE CONSERVATIVE EURO/GFS SOLUTIONS HERE FOR TIMING...
WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE MID 70S. RIDGING INFLUENCES WILL AGAIN
BUILD AND BE PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU THE MID PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK ALSO WITH HIGHS REMAINING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE NORMS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ011-032>034-
065-066-078>080.

FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ007>010-
026>031-059-061>064-075-077.

&&

$$
31






000
FXUS64 KMEG 170849
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
349 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. SOME
LOCATIONS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER COULD STILL SEE TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE MID 30S THIS MORNING SO HAVE KEPT FROST ADVISORY
GOING UNTIL 9 AM. HOPEFULLY THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST TIME WE DEAL
WITH TEMPERATURES THIS CLOSE TO FREEZING FOR SEVERAL MONTHS.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT SHOULD NOT
AFFECT THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY SO IT SHOULD
BE SUNNY A LITTLE WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. BY THIS EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL START TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

BY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS AND FALLS APART SO IT APPEARS
THAT IT SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. DRY AND WARM WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS IT DOES
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS EARLY
AS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT
GETS CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL INCREASE. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT QUITE REACH THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH SO THERE WILL ONLY BE A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
DRY AND FAIRLY WARM. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE 80 DEGREES
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT...LESS THAN 5 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH...PICKING UP
TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AT ALL SITES. A LOW SCATTERED
TO BROKEN DECK WILL MOVE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALCORN-TISHOMINGO.

TN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-DECATUR-HARDIN-HENDERSON-HENRY-MCNAIRY-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KOHX 170754
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
254 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.

FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR CHANCES ON FRI...WX PATTERN FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK...TEMPS.

WILL BE CONTINUING WITH THE FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING THRU 9 AM
THIS MORNING AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS NOW MOVING INTO ERN PORTIONS
OF THE MID STATE...AND SHOULD BE MAINLY E OF THE MID STATE AS SUNRISE
APPROACHES...AND WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES...AND PER MAX RADIATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL...SOME LOW LYING LOCATIONS W OF THE PLATEAU AND
ACROSS THE PLATEAU COULD EXPERIENCE PATCHY FROST.

EXPECTING AGAIN A QUICK WARMUP FROM LOWS THIS MORNING WITH SLY SFC
FLOW BECOMING A LITTLE MORE ESTABLISHED TODAY...BUT RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL STILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE
INCREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.
AS SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE MID STATE
LATE TONIGHT....ENOUGH MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND LIFT MAY BE
PRESENT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS APPROACHING THE TN RIVER VALLEY
LATE...OTHERWISE EXPECTING AND END TO THE LOW TEMPS WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS...WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE MID 40S. MODELS CONTINUING THEIR TREND OF THIS WX SYSTEM
WEAKENING IT AS IT APPROACHES THE MID STATE...AND WILL GO WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHWRS TO
THE SE OF THE MID STATE ON FRI. EXPECTING SOME DECREASING CLOUDINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. RIDGING
INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL BECOME EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH HIGHS
ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES...MAINLY IN
THE MID 70S ON SAT. EXPECT EVEN A FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGING
INFLUENCES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPS...AS LOWS
SUN MORNING WILL BE MAINLY AROUND 50 WITH HIGHS ON SUN APPROACHING
THE UPPER 70S.

SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO INFLUENCE
THE MID STATE`S WX PATTERN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
LATEST EURO/GFS SHIFTING MOST OF THE SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY INTO THE MON
NIGHT THRU TUE TIME FRAME WITH OUR OLD FRIEND DGEX MOVING A SWATH
OF SHWRS/TSTMS THRU THE AREA MON/MON NIGHT. PER THE RECOMMENDATION
OF THE LATEST EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION FROM WPC...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE MORE CONSERVATIVE EURO/GFS SOLUTIONS HERE FOR TIMING...
WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE MID 70S. RIDGING INFLUENCES WILL AGAIN
BUILD AND BE PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU THE MID PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK ALSO WITH HIGHS REMAINING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE NORMS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      67  47  69  48 /  05  10  20  10
CLARKSVILLE    67  47  71  46 /  05  20  20  10
CROSSVILLE     64  42  64  45 /  05  10  20  10
COLUMBIA       68  48  69  47 /  05  10  20  10
LAWRENCEBURG   68  49  68  45 /  05  20  20  10
WAVERLY        67  48  70  46 /  05  20  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ011-032>034-
065-066-078>080.

FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ007>010-
026>031-059-061>064-075-077.
&&

$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 170754
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
254 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.

FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR CHANCES ON FRI...WX PATTERN FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK...TEMPS.

WILL BE CONTINUING WITH THE FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING THRU 9 AM
THIS MORNING AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS NOW MOVING INTO ERN PORTIONS
OF THE MID STATE...AND SHOULD BE MAINLY E OF THE MID STATE AS SUNRISE
APPROACHES...AND WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES...AND PER MAX RADIATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL...SOME LOW LYING LOCATIONS W OF THE PLATEAU AND
ACROSS THE PLATEAU COULD EXPERIENCE PATCHY FROST.

EXPECTING AGAIN A QUICK WARMUP FROM LOWS THIS MORNING WITH SLY SFC
FLOW BECOMING A LITTLE MORE ESTABLISHED TODAY...BUT RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL STILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE
INCREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.
AS SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE MID STATE
LATE TONIGHT....ENOUGH MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND LIFT MAY BE
PRESENT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS APPROACHING THE TN RIVER VALLEY
LATE...OTHERWISE EXPECTING AND END TO THE LOW TEMPS WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS...WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE MID 40S. MODELS CONTINUING THEIR TREND OF THIS WX SYSTEM
WEAKENING IT AS IT APPROACHES THE MID STATE...AND WILL GO WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHWRS TO
THE SE OF THE MID STATE ON FRI. EXPECTING SOME DECREASING CLOUDINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. RIDGING
INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL BECOME EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH HIGHS
ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES...MAINLY IN
THE MID 70S ON SAT. EXPECT EVEN A FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGING
INFLUENCES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPS...AS LOWS
SUN MORNING WILL BE MAINLY AROUND 50 WITH HIGHS ON SUN APPROACHING
THE UPPER 70S.

SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO INFLUENCE
THE MID STATE`S WX PATTERN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
LATEST EURO/GFS SHIFTING MOST OF THE SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY INTO THE MON
NIGHT THRU TUE TIME FRAME WITH OUR OLD FRIEND DGEX MOVING A SWATH
OF SHWRS/TSTMS THRU THE AREA MON/MON NIGHT. PER THE RECOMMENDATION
OF THE LATEST EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION FROM WPC...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE MORE CONSERVATIVE EURO/GFS SOLUTIONS HERE FOR TIMING...
WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE MID 70S. RIDGING INFLUENCES WILL AGAIN
BUILD AND BE PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU THE MID PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK ALSO WITH HIGHS REMAINING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE NORMS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      67  47  69  48 /  05  10  20  10
CLARKSVILLE    67  47  71  46 /  05  20  20  10
CROSSVILLE     64  42  64  45 /  05  10  20  10
COLUMBIA       68  48  69  47 /  05  10  20  10
LAWRENCEBURG   68  49  68  45 /  05  20  20  10
WAVERLY        67  48  70  46 /  05  20  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ011-032>034-
065-066-078>080.

FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ007>010-
026>031-059-061>064-075-077.
&&

$$
31





000
FXUS64 KMRX 170659
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
259 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...FOR THE NEAR-TERM...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA HAVE BEEN HIGHER THAN FORECAST DUE TO
EASTERLY WINDS. THIS MAY LIMIT FREEZE/FROST EXTENT EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT SOME AREAS WILL REACH CRITERIA...SO WILL MAINTAIN
HEADLINES AS IS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TODAY. AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH VERY LOW
RELATIVE AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ANTICIPATED. UPPER FLOW IS
SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL ADVECT AREAS OF CIRRUS AND CIRRO-STRATUS
CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S AGAIN TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AREAS...BUT INCREASING HIGH AND SOME MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND
REVEAL TWO WEAK COLD FRONTS AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME PERIODS. MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY DUE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN GA WHICH WILL LIKELY CUT OFF THE NORTHWARD
FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW INDICATE THAT THE SECOND COLD FRONT FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BE SLOWER...AND SHOULD NOT MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA UNTIL TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF IT. THUS...WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF TSTORMS ON
TUESDAY WITH THIS SECOND COLD FRONT. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL GENERALLY
TREND CLOSE TO THE GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  44  65  46 /   0  10  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  42  64  46 /   0   0  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  41  64  46 /   0   0  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              69  36  63  42 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JOHNSON-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-
     MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
     NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-UNION-WEST
     POLK.

VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 170659
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
259 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...FOR THE NEAR-TERM...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA HAVE BEEN HIGHER THAN FORECAST DUE TO
EASTERLY WINDS. THIS MAY LIMIT FREEZE/FROST EXTENT EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT SOME AREAS WILL REACH CRITERIA...SO WILL MAINTAIN
HEADLINES AS IS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TODAY. AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH VERY LOW
RELATIVE AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ANTICIPATED. UPPER FLOW IS
SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL ADVECT AREAS OF CIRRUS AND CIRRO-STRATUS
CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S AGAIN TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AREAS...BUT INCREASING HIGH AND SOME MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND
REVEAL TWO WEAK COLD FRONTS AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME PERIODS. MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY DUE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN GA WHICH WILL LIKELY CUT OFF THE NORTHWARD
FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW INDICATE THAT THE SECOND COLD FRONT FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BE SLOWER...AND SHOULD NOT MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA UNTIL TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF IT. THUS...WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF TSTORMS ON
TUESDAY WITH THIS SECOND COLD FRONT. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL GENERALLY
TREND CLOSE TO THE GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  44  65  46 /   0  10  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  42  64  46 /   0   0  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  41  64  46 /   0   0  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              69  36  63  42 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JOHNSON-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-
     MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
     NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-UNION-WEST
     POLK.

VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMEG 170532
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1232 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

UPDATE...

NO FORECAST UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS
WILL MOVE EAST WITH CLEARING SKIES AND CALM WINDS LEADING TO
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID 30S IN EASTERN SECTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH FROST
DEVELOPING. A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN AREAS
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

JLH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ALONG AND NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY FOR
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE SPREADING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. OVERALL SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY.
THINK TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ABOUT 35 DEGREES ALONG AND NEAR THE
TN RIVER VALLEY. THESE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF FROST...THUS ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS
AREA. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AS THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE SPRING DAY WEATHERWISE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE WITH SOME LOCATIONS
CLIMBING CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT (REALLY MORE OF A SURFACE TROUGH)
APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...KEPT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING AS IN THE EARLIER
FORECAST.

THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY PLEASANT WEATHERWISE. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE 70S.

THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE REGION.
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN WEAKENING AND MOVING THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR EAST SUNDAY...THUS SLOWER IN BRINGING INTO THE
MIDSOUTH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. CONTINUED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF
WITH SOME CONSIDERATION OF THE GFS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS SOMETIME
DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE TIMING AND DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM
THE NORTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT...LESS THAN 5 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH...PICKING UP
TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AT ALL SITES. A LOW SCATTERED
TO BROKEN DECK WILL MOVE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALCORN-TISHOMINGO.

TN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-DECATUR-HARDIN-HENDERSON-HENRY-MCNAIRY-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMRX 170504
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
104 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE
RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR CHA WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND
10KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY CLOUD COVER WILL BE CIRRUS AND
CIRRUS-STRATUS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JOHNSON-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     THURSDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-UNION-
     WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 170504
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
104 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE
RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR CHA WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND
10KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY CLOUD COVER WILL BE CIRRUS AND
CIRRUS-STRATUS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JOHNSON-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     THURSDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-UNION-
     WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 170504
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
104 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE
RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR CHA WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND
10KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY CLOUD COVER WILL BE CIRRUS AND
CIRRUS-STRATUS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JOHNSON-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     THURSDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-UNION-
     WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 170504
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
104 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE
RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR CHA WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND
10KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY CLOUD COVER WILL BE CIRRUS AND
CIRRUS-STRATUS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JOHNSON-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     THURSDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-UNION-
     WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 170439
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1139 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...

06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. SCT-BKN CIRRUS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
FEW-SCT CUMULUS AROUND 3500-4000 FT. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS TONIGHT TO INCREASE TO 5-11 KTS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
NO PRECIPITATION OR FOG IS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

UPDATE...
18Z GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT TEMPERATURES MAY BE A TAD WARMER
THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST IN THE 12Z RUNS. ALTHOUGH...HOURLY GRIDS
ARE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SO LEFT THE FROST ADVISORY
AND FREEZE WARNING UNEDITED. STILL BELIEVE LOW LYING AREAS COULD
REACH FREEZING OVERNIGHT.

ONLY GRID CHANGES WERE IN WX AND SKY. REMOVED THE PATCHY FROST
WORDING IN THE AREAS OUTSIDE THE ADVISORY FOR FORECAST
CONSISTENCY. ALSO INCLUDED SOME CLOUD COVER WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD FOR
NEXT 12 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

UPDATE...

00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

VFR. SCT-BKN CIRRUS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR SOME SCT
CUMULUS AROUND 3500-4000 FT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY. NO PRECIP OR FOG CONCERNS.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 141 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH ONE MORE NIGHT OF COLD TEMPERATURES BEFORE RETURN
FLOW BEGINS TO DELIVER WARMER TEMPERATURES TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
NEXT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE ISN`T
A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY
SHOWING UP ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS, SO POP`S WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY. WITH NO APPRECIABLE AIR MASS CHANGE ON THE OTHER
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ENTER THE MID STATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING
MODEST INSTABILITY THIS TIME, SO WE`LL INCLUDE STORMS IN THE
FORECAST, ALTHOUGH THE SPC HAS NO SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THROUGH DAY 8.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ011-032>034-
065-066-078>080.

FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ007>010-
026>031-059-061>064-075-077.

&&

$$

55





000
FXUS64 KOHX 170439
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1139 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...

06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. SCT-BKN CIRRUS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
FEW-SCT CUMULUS AROUND 3500-4000 FT. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS TONIGHT TO INCREASE TO 5-11 KTS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
NO PRECIPITATION OR FOG IS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

UPDATE...
18Z GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT TEMPERATURES MAY BE A TAD WARMER
THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST IN THE 12Z RUNS. ALTHOUGH...HOURLY GRIDS
ARE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SO LEFT THE FROST ADVISORY
AND FREEZE WARNING UNEDITED. STILL BELIEVE LOW LYING AREAS COULD
REACH FREEZING OVERNIGHT.

ONLY GRID CHANGES WERE IN WX AND SKY. REMOVED THE PATCHY FROST
WORDING IN THE AREAS OUTSIDE THE ADVISORY FOR FORECAST
CONSISTENCY. ALSO INCLUDED SOME CLOUD COVER WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD FOR
NEXT 12 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

UPDATE...

00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

VFR. SCT-BKN CIRRUS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR SOME SCT
CUMULUS AROUND 3500-4000 FT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY. NO PRECIP OR FOG CONCERNS.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 141 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH ONE MORE NIGHT OF COLD TEMPERATURES BEFORE RETURN
FLOW BEGINS TO DELIVER WARMER TEMPERATURES TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
NEXT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE ISN`T
A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY
SHOWING UP ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS, SO POP`S WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY. WITH NO APPRECIABLE AIR MASS CHANGE ON THE OTHER
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ENTER THE MID STATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING
MODEST INSTABILITY THIS TIME, SO WE`LL INCLUDE STORMS IN THE
FORECAST, ALTHOUGH THE SPC HAS NO SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THROUGH DAY 8.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ011-032>034-
065-066-078>080.

FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ007>010-
026>031-059-061>064-075-077.

&&

$$

55





000
FXUS64 KOHX 170439
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1139 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...

06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. SCT-BKN CIRRUS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
FEW-SCT CUMULUS AROUND 3500-4000 FT. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS TONIGHT TO INCREASE TO 5-11 KTS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
NO PRECIPITATION OR FOG IS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

UPDATE...
18Z GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT TEMPERATURES MAY BE A TAD WARMER
THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST IN THE 12Z RUNS. ALTHOUGH...HOURLY GRIDS
ARE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SO LEFT THE FROST ADVISORY
AND FREEZE WARNING UNEDITED. STILL BELIEVE LOW LYING AREAS COULD
REACH FREEZING OVERNIGHT.

ONLY GRID CHANGES WERE IN WX AND SKY. REMOVED THE PATCHY FROST
WORDING IN THE AREAS OUTSIDE THE ADVISORY FOR FORECAST
CONSISTENCY. ALSO INCLUDED SOME CLOUD COVER WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD FOR
NEXT 12 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

UPDATE...

00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

VFR. SCT-BKN CIRRUS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR SOME SCT
CUMULUS AROUND 3500-4000 FT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY. NO PRECIP OR FOG CONCERNS.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 141 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH ONE MORE NIGHT OF COLD TEMPERATURES BEFORE RETURN
FLOW BEGINS TO DELIVER WARMER TEMPERATURES TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
NEXT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE ISN`T
A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY
SHOWING UP ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS, SO POP`S WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY. WITH NO APPRECIABLE AIR MASS CHANGE ON THE OTHER
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ENTER THE MID STATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING
MODEST INSTABILITY THIS TIME, SO WE`LL INCLUDE STORMS IN THE
FORECAST, ALTHOUGH THE SPC HAS NO SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THROUGH DAY 8.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ011-032>034-
065-066-078>080.

FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ007>010-
026>031-059-061>064-075-077.

&&

$$

55





000
FXUS64 KOHX 170439
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1139 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...

06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. SCT-BKN CIRRUS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
FEW-SCT CUMULUS AROUND 3500-4000 FT. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS TONIGHT TO INCREASE TO 5-11 KTS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
NO PRECIPITATION OR FOG IS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

UPDATE...
18Z GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT TEMPERATURES MAY BE A TAD WARMER
THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST IN THE 12Z RUNS. ALTHOUGH...HOURLY GRIDS
ARE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SO LEFT THE FROST ADVISORY
AND FREEZE WARNING UNEDITED. STILL BELIEVE LOW LYING AREAS COULD
REACH FREEZING OVERNIGHT.

ONLY GRID CHANGES WERE IN WX AND SKY. REMOVED THE PATCHY FROST
WORDING IN THE AREAS OUTSIDE THE ADVISORY FOR FORECAST
CONSISTENCY. ALSO INCLUDED SOME CLOUD COVER WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD FOR
NEXT 12 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

UPDATE...

00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

VFR. SCT-BKN CIRRUS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR SOME SCT
CUMULUS AROUND 3500-4000 FT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY. NO PRECIP OR FOG CONCERNS.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 141 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH ONE MORE NIGHT OF COLD TEMPERATURES BEFORE RETURN
FLOW BEGINS TO DELIVER WARMER TEMPERATURES TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
NEXT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE ISN`T
A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY
SHOWING UP ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS, SO POP`S WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY. WITH NO APPRECIABLE AIR MASS CHANGE ON THE OTHER
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ENTER THE MID STATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING
MODEST INSTABILITY THIS TIME, SO WE`LL INCLUDE STORMS IN THE
FORECAST, ALTHOUGH THE SPC HAS NO SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THROUGH DAY 8.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ011-032>034-
065-066-078>080.

FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ007>010-
026>031-059-061>064-075-077.

&&

$$

55





000
FXUS64 KMEG 170400
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1100 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...

NO FORECAST UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS
WILL MOVE EAST WITH CLEARING SKIES AND CALM WINDS LEADING TO
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID 30S IN EASTERN SECTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH FROST
DEVELOPING. A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN AREAS
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ALONG AND NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY FOR
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE SPREADING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. OVERALL SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY.
THINK TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ABOUT 35 DEGREES ALONG AND NEAR THE
TN RIVER VALLEY. THESE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF FROST...THUS ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS
AREA. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AS THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE SPRING DAY WEATHERWISE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE WITH SOME LOCATIONS
CLIMBING CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT (REALLY MORE OF A SURFACE TROUGH)
APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...KEPT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING AS IN THE EARLIER
FORECAST.

THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY PLEASANT WEATHERWISE. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE 70S.

THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE REGION.
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN WEAKENING AND MOVING THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR EAST SUNDAY...THUS SLOWER IN BRINGING INTO THE
MIDSOUTH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. CONTINUED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF
WITH SOME CONSIDERATION OF THE GFS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS SOMETIME
DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE TIMING AND DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM
THE NORTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT...LESS THAN 6 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH...PICKING UP
TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AT ALL SITES. A FEW CLOUDS
TO A LOW SCATTERED DECK WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-TISHOMINGO.

TN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-DECATUR-HARDIN-HENDERSON-HENRY-MCNAIRY-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 170257
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
957 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT TEMPERATURES MAY BE A TAD WARMER
THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST IN THE 12Z RUNS. ALTHOUGH...HOURLY GRIDS
ARE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SO LEFT THE FROST ADVISORY
AND FREEZE WARNING UNEDITED. STILL BELIEVE LOW LYING AREAS COULD
REACH FREEZING OVERNIGHT.

ONLY GRID CHANGES WERE IN WX AND SKY. REMOVED THE PATCHY FROST
WORDING IN THE AREAS OUTSIDE THE ADVISORY FOR FORECAST
CONSISTENCY. ALSO INCLUDED SOME CLOUD COVER WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD FOR
NEXT 12 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

UPDATE...

00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

VFR. SCT-BKN CIRRUS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR SOME SCT
CUMULUS AROUND 3500-4000 FT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY. NO PRECIP OR FOG CONCERNS.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 141 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH ONE MORE NIGHT OF COLD TEMPERATURES BEFORE RETURN
FLOW BEGINS TO DELIVER WARMER TEMPERATURES TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
NEXT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE ISN`T
A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY
SHOWING UP ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS, SO POP`S WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY. WITH NO APPRECIABLE AIR MASS CHANGE ON THE OTHER
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ENTER THE MID STATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING
MODEST INSTABILITY THIS TIME, SO WE`LL INCLUDE STORMS IN THE
FORECAST, ALTHOUGH THE SPC HAS NO SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THROUGH DAY 8.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ011-032>034-
065-066-078>080.

FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ007>010-
026>031-059-061>064-075-077.

&&

$$

TB12





000
FXUS64 KOHX 170257
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
957 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT TEMPERATURES MAY BE A TAD WARMER
THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST IN THE 12Z RUNS. ALTHOUGH...HOURLY GRIDS
ARE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SO LEFT THE FROST ADVISORY
AND FREEZE WARNING UNEDITED. STILL BELIEVE LOW LYING AREAS COULD
REACH FREEZING OVERNIGHT.

ONLY GRID CHANGES WERE IN WX AND SKY. REMOVED THE PATCHY FROST
WORDING IN THE AREAS OUTSIDE THE ADVISORY FOR FORECAST
CONSISTENCY. ALSO INCLUDED SOME CLOUD COVER WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD FOR
NEXT 12 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

UPDATE...

00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

VFR. SCT-BKN CIRRUS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR SOME SCT
CUMULUS AROUND 3500-4000 FT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY. NO PRECIP OR FOG CONCERNS.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 141 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH ONE MORE NIGHT OF COLD TEMPERATURES BEFORE RETURN
FLOW BEGINS TO DELIVER WARMER TEMPERATURES TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
NEXT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE ISN`T
A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY
SHOWING UP ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS, SO POP`S WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY. WITH NO APPRECIABLE AIR MASS CHANGE ON THE OTHER
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ENTER THE MID STATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING
MODEST INSTABILITY THIS TIME, SO WE`LL INCLUDE STORMS IN THE
FORECAST, ALTHOUGH THE SPC HAS NO SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THROUGH DAY 8.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ011-032>034-
065-066-078>080.

FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ007>010-
026>031-059-061>064-075-077.

&&

$$

TB12





000
FXUS64 KOHX 170257
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
957 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT TEMPERATURES MAY BE A TAD WARMER
THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST IN THE 12Z RUNS. ALTHOUGH...HOURLY GRIDS
ARE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SO LEFT THE FROST ADVISORY
AND FREEZE WARNING UNEDITED. STILL BELIEVE LOW LYING AREAS COULD
REACH FREEZING OVERNIGHT.

ONLY GRID CHANGES WERE IN WX AND SKY. REMOVED THE PATCHY FROST
WORDING IN THE AREAS OUTSIDE THE ADVISORY FOR FORECAST
CONSISTENCY. ALSO INCLUDED SOME CLOUD COVER WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD FOR
NEXT 12 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

UPDATE...

00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

VFR. SCT-BKN CIRRUS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR SOME SCT
CUMULUS AROUND 3500-4000 FT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY. NO PRECIP OR FOG CONCERNS.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 141 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH ONE MORE NIGHT OF COLD TEMPERATURES BEFORE RETURN
FLOW BEGINS TO DELIVER WARMER TEMPERATURES TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
NEXT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE ISN`T
A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY
SHOWING UP ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS, SO POP`S WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY. WITH NO APPRECIABLE AIR MASS CHANGE ON THE OTHER
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ENTER THE MID STATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING
MODEST INSTABILITY THIS TIME, SO WE`LL INCLUDE STORMS IN THE
FORECAST, ALTHOUGH THE SPC HAS NO SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THROUGH DAY 8.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ011-032>034-
065-066-078>080.

FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ007>010-
026>031-059-061>064-075-077.

&&

$$

TB12





000
FXUS64 KOHX 170257
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
957 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT TEMPERATURES MAY BE A TAD WARMER
THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST IN THE 12Z RUNS. ALTHOUGH...HOURLY GRIDS
ARE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SO LEFT THE FROST ADVISORY
AND FREEZE WARNING UNEDITED. STILL BELIEVE LOW LYING AREAS COULD
REACH FREEZING OVERNIGHT.

ONLY GRID CHANGES WERE IN WX AND SKY. REMOVED THE PATCHY FROST
WORDING IN THE AREAS OUTSIDE THE ADVISORY FOR FORECAST
CONSISTENCY. ALSO INCLUDED SOME CLOUD COVER WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD FOR
NEXT 12 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

UPDATE...

00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

VFR. SCT-BKN CIRRUS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR SOME SCT
CUMULUS AROUND 3500-4000 FT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY. NO PRECIP OR FOG CONCERNS.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 141 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH ONE MORE NIGHT OF COLD TEMPERATURES BEFORE RETURN
FLOW BEGINS TO DELIVER WARMER TEMPERATURES TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
NEXT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE ISN`T
A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY
SHOWING UP ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS, SO POP`S WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY. WITH NO APPRECIABLE AIR MASS CHANGE ON THE OTHER
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ENTER THE MID STATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING
MODEST INSTABILITY THIS TIME, SO WE`LL INCLUDE STORMS IN THE
FORECAST, ALTHOUGH THE SPC HAS NO SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THROUGH DAY 8.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ011-032>034-
065-066-078>080.

FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ007>010-
026>031-059-061>064-075-077.

&&

$$

TB12





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