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000
FXUS64 KMEG 200147
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
847 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHWEST BACK THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A 1020 MB
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BRINGING RAIN FREE CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES AS OF 8 PM CDT IN THE 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS. WILL
MAKE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST SHORT TERM TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL
IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MIDSOUTH WILL BEGIN TO
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR
EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. EXPECT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 40 NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS EASTERN
ARKANSAS/NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S IN
THE CITY OF MEMPHIS.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT. EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE MIDSOUTH FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

MODELS HAVE DIVERGED ON SOLUTIONS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LOW BEING CLOSED OFF
THAT WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS NO LONGER DEVELOPS THE CLOSED LOW AND BRINGS A
QUICK MOVING UPPER TROUGH THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THE MODEL THEN
BRINGS A MUCH STRONGER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL SOLUTION IS CORRECT...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE A DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. ALTHOUGH...CAN/T RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS IF THE ECMWF
IS CORRECT AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST. ALSO TEMPERATURES
COULD ALSO BE WARMER NEXT WEEKEND IF THE GFS IS CORRECT. FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE FORECAST AS IS.

KRM

AVIATION...

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS AND LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. SOME PATCHY EARLY
MORNING FOG POSSIBLE AROUND KMKL.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 200147
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
847 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHWEST BACK THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A 1020 MB
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BRINGING RAIN FREE CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES AS OF 8 PM CDT IN THE 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS. WILL
MAKE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST SHORT TERM TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL
IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MIDSOUTH WILL BEGIN TO
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR
EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. EXPECT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 40 NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS EASTERN
ARKANSAS/NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S IN
THE CITY OF MEMPHIS.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT. EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE MIDSOUTH FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

MODELS HAVE DIVERGED ON SOLUTIONS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LOW BEING CLOSED OFF
THAT WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS NO LONGER DEVELOPS THE CLOSED LOW AND BRINGS A
QUICK MOVING UPPER TROUGH THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THE MODEL THEN
BRINGS A MUCH STRONGER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL SOLUTION IS CORRECT...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE A DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. ALTHOUGH...CAN/T RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS IF THE ECMWF
IS CORRECT AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST. ALSO TEMPERATURES
COULD ALSO BE WARMER NEXT WEEKEND IF THE GFS IS CORRECT. FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE FORECAST AS IS.

KRM

AVIATION...

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS AND LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. SOME PATCHY EARLY
MORNING FOG POSSIBLE AROUND KMKL.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMRX 200130
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
930 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AREA WEATHER
TONIGHT.  WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
30S AND 40S ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.  PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER
AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.  A FROST
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.  OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A
QUIET NIGHT WITH EVERYTHING ON TRACK IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.  NO
UPDATE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             44  71  49  71 /   0  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  43  68  48  67 /   0  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       42  67  49  67 /   0  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              37  67  45  62 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR EAST POLK-
     HANCOCK-HAWKINS-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

MJB



000
FXUS64 KMRX 200130
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
930 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AREA WEATHER
TONIGHT.  WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
30S AND 40S ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.  PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER
AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.  A FROST
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.  OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A
QUIET NIGHT WITH EVERYTHING ON TRACK IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.  NO
UPDATE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             44  71  49  71 /   0  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  43  68  48  67 /   0  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       42  67  49  67 /   0  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              37  67  45  62 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR EAST POLK-
     HANCOCK-HAWKINS-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

MJB



000
FXUS64 KMRX 200130
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
930 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AREA WEATHER
TONIGHT.  WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
30S AND 40S ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.  PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER
AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.  A FROST
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.  OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A
QUIET NIGHT WITH EVERYTHING ON TRACK IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.  NO
UPDATE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             44  71  49  71 /   0  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  43  68  48  67 /   0  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       42  67  49  67 /   0  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              37  67  45  62 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR EAST POLK-
     HANCOCK-HAWKINS-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

MJB



000
FXUS64 KMRX 200130
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
930 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AREA WEATHER
TONIGHT.  WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
30S AND 40S ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.  PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER
AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.  A FROST
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.  OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A
QUIET NIGHT WITH EVERYTHING ON TRACK IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.  NO
UPDATE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             44  71  49  71 /   0  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  43  68  48  67 /   0  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       42  67  49  67 /   0  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              37  67  45  62 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR EAST POLK-
     HANCOCK-HAWKINS-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

MJB


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOHX 200043 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
743 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MAKING SOME ADDITIONAL TWEAKS TO HRLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY CONDITIONS
FOR THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME SKY CONDTIONS CHANGES
THROUGHOUT THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS...INCLUDING THE ZFP PRODUCT...
AS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST THE EVENING
HRS STREAMING ACROSS THE MID STATE. WILL PROBABLY BE MAKING SOME MORE
ADDITIONAL TWEAKS AS THE EVENING HOURS PROGRESS. BUT ON THE WHOLE...NO
MAJOR SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED OR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 730 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
UPDATE...

FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND THIS COULD SPELL
SOME PERIODS OF MVFR FOG/HAZE THROUGH 12-13Z...LARGELY CSV.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10MPH.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...A SUNNY AND COOL OCTOBER AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS OVER
THE MID STATE, WITH 100 PM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S...HEADED TOWARD HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID STATE TONIGHT AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THESE CLOUDS SWEEP OFF
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY NOON MONDAY. HOWEVER, BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
A BAND OF HIGH 1000-850MB MOISTURE SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME SCT-BKN STRATOCU, ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES. THIS BAND OF COLD AIR
STRATOCU MAY PESTER US INTO TOMORROW NIGHT, AND HAVE GONE WITH
SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS WORKING THEIR WAY TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
OVERNIGHT.

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS RUNNING FOR OUR NORTHEAST
TOMORROW. HOWEVER, PULLING RAIN OUT OF THE CLOUDS TOMORROW WILL BE
ABOUT LIKE TRYING TO SQUEEZE BLOOD OUT OF THE PROVERBIAL TURNIP.
DON`T EXPECT STRATOCU TOMORROW NIGHT TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN. SO, HAVE
TAKEN OUT MENTION OF ANY PRECIP IN OUR NORTHEAST FOR THAT PERIOD.

EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
SWEEPS ACROSS THE MID-STATE, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL, DRY
AIR AND LOWER SFC DEW POINTS. EXPECT A CHILLY SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S, WITH SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOW LYING AREAS.

A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS OVER OUR AREA INTO LATE WEEK, WITH LOWS
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LIKELY TO SINK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S, WITH SOME MIDDLE 30S AND PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE OVER OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BOTH MORNINGS.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN SOME 4 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE AN AFTERNOON WARM-UP ENSUES NEXT WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...ECMWF FORECAST FOR THE LATE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS,
ACCORDING TO WPC, A "LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO," AND HAVE GONE
CLOSER WITH THE GFS SOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. AND JUST OFF THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD, AND A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. BY NEXT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WE WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO NORMS,
WITH NASHVILLE HIGHS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH THE LOWER 70S
AGAIN. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
GIVING US A NICE LONG BREAK FROM THE "POST-SEPTEMBER DRIP" WE
EXPERIENCED EARLIER THIS MONTH.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      45  68  48  67 /   0  10  05   0
CLARKSVILLE    44  67  45  66 /   0  10  05   0
CROSSVILLE     43  65  47  61 /   0  20  10   0
COLUMBIA       42  70  47  69 /   0  05  05   0
LAWRENCEBURG   44  70  47  70 /   0  05  05   0
WAVERLY        45  69  47  69 /   0  05  05   0
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 200043 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
743 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MAKING SOME ADDITIONAL TWEAKS TO HRLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY CONDITIONS
FOR THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME SKY CONDTIONS CHANGES
THROUGHOUT THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS...INCLUDING THE ZFP PRODUCT...
AS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST THE EVENING
HRS STREAMING ACROSS THE MID STATE. WILL PROBABLY BE MAKING SOME MORE
ADDITIONAL TWEAKS AS THE EVENING HOURS PROGRESS. BUT ON THE WHOLE...NO
MAJOR SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED OR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 730 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
UPDATE...

FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND THIS COULD SPELL
SOME PERIODS OF MVFR FOG/HAZE THROUGH 12-13Z...LARGELY CSV.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10MPH.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...A SUNNY AND COOL OCTOBER AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS OVER
THE MID STATE, WITH 100 PM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S...HEADED TOWARD HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID STATE TONIGHT AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THESE CLOUDS SWEEP OFF
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY NOON MONDAY. HOWEVER, BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
A BAND OF HIGH 1000-850MB MOISTURE SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME SCT-BKN STRATOCU, ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES. THIS BAND OF COLD AIR
STRATOCU MAY PESTER US INTO TOMORROW NIGHT, AND HAVE GONE WITH
SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS WORKING THEIR WAY TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
OVERNIGHT.

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS RUNNING FOR OUR NORTHEAST
TOMORROW. HOWEVER, PULLING RAIN OUT OF THE CLOUDS TOMORROW WILL BE
ABOUT LIKE TRYING TO SQUEEZE BLOOD OUT OF THE PROVERBIAL TURNIP.
DON`T EXPECT STRATOCU TOMORROW NIGHT TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN. SO, HAVE
TAKEN OUT MENTION OF ANY PRECIP IN OUR NORTHEAST FOR THAT PERIOD.

EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
SWEEPS ACROSS THE MID-STATE, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL, DRY
AIR AND LOWER SFC DEW POINTS. EXPECT A CHILLY SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S, WITH SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOW LYING AREAS.

A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS OVER OUR AREA INTO LATE WEEK, WITH LOWS
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LIKELY TO SINK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S, WITH SOME MIDDLE 30S AND PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE OVER OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BOTH MORNINGS.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN SOME 4 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE AN AFTERNOON WARM-UP ENSUES NEXT WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...ECMWF FORECAST FOR THE LATE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS,
ACCORDING TO WPC, A "LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO," AND HAVE GONE
CLOSER WITH THE GFS SOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. AND JUST OFF THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD, AND A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. BY NEXT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WE WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO NORMS,
WITH NASHVILLE HIGHS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH THE LOWER 70S
AGAIN. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
GIVING US A NICE LONG BREAK FROM THE "POST-SEPTEMBER DRIP" WE
EXPERIENCED EARLIER THIS MONTH.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      45  68  48  67 /   0  10  05   0
CLARKSVILLE    44  67  45  66 /   0  10  05   0
CROSSVILLE     43  65  47  61 /   0  20  10   0
COLUMBIA       42  70  47  69 /   0  05  05   0
LAWRENCEBURG   44  70  47  70 /   0  05  05   0
WAVERLY        45  69  47  69 /   0  05  05   0
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 200030
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
730 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...

FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND THIS COULD SPELL
SOME PERIODS OF MVFR FOG/HAZE THROUGH 12-13Z...LARGELY CSV.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10MPH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...A SUNNY AND COOL OCTOBER AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS OVER
THE MID STATE, WITH 100 PM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S...HEADED TOWARD HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID STATE TONIGHT AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THESE CLOUDS SWEEP OFF
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY NOON MONDAY. HOWEVER, BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
A BAND OF HIGH 1000-850MB MOISTURE SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME SCT-BKN STRATOCU, ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES. THIS BAND OF COLD AIR
STRATOCU MAY PESTER US INTO TOMORROW NIGHT, AND HAVE GONE WITH
SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS WORKING THEIR WAY TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
OVERNIGHT.

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS RUNNING FOR OUR NORTHEAST
TOMORROW. HOWEVER, PULLING RAIN OUT OF THE CLOUDS TOMORROW WILL BE
ABOUT LIKE TRYING TO SQUEEZE BLOOD OUT OF THE PROVERBIAL TURNIP.
DON`T EXPECT STRATOCU TOMORROW NIGHT TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN. SO, HAVE
TAKEN OUT MENTION OF ANY PRECIP IN OUR NORTHEAST FOR THAT PERIOD.

EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
SWEEPS ACROSS THE MID-STATE, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL, DRY
AIR AND LOWER SFC DEW POINTS. EXPECT A CHILLY SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S, WITH SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOW LYING AREAS.

A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS OVER OUR AREA INTO LATE WEEK, WITH LOWS
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LIKELY TO SINK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S, WITH SOME MIDDLE 30S AND PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE OVER OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BOTH MORNINGS.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN SOME 4 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE AN AFTERNOON WARM-UP ENSUES NEXT WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...ECMWF FORECAST FOR THE LATE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS,
ACCORDING TO WPC, A "LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO," AND HAVE GONE
CLOSER WITH THE GFS SOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. AND JUST OFF THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD, AND A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. BY NEXT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WE WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO NORMS,
WITH NASHVILLE HIGHS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH THE LOWER 70S
AGAIN. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
GIVING US A NICE LONG BREAK FROM THE "POST-SEPTEMBER DRIP" WE
EXPERIENCED EARLIER THIS MONTH.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07






000
FXUS64 KOHX 200030
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
730 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...

FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND THIS COULD SPELL
SOME PERIODS OF MVFR FOG/HAZE THROUGH 12-13Z...LARGELY CSV.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10MPH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...A SUNNY AND COOL OCTOBER AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS OVER
THE MID STATE, WITH 100 PM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S...HEADED TOWARD HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID STATE TONIGHT AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THESE CLOUDS SWEEP OFF
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY NOON MONDAY. HOWEVER, BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
A BAND OF HIGH 1000-850MB MOISTURE SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME SCT-BKN STRATOCU, ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES. THIS BAND OF COLD AIR
STRATOCU MAY PESTER US INTO TOMORROW NIGHT, AND HAVE GONE WITH
SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS WORKING THEIR WAY TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
OVERNIGHT.

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS RUNNING FOR OUR NORTHEAST
TOMORROW. HOWEVER, PULLING RAIN OUT OF THE CLOUDS TOMORROW WILL BE
ABOUT LIKE TRYING TO SQUEEZE BLOOD OUT OF THE PROVERBIAL TURNIP.
DON`T EXPECT STRATOCU TOMORROW NIGHT TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN. SO, HAVE
TAKEN OUT MENTION OF ANY PRECIP IN OUR NORTHEAST FOR THAT PERIOD.

EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
SWEEPS ACROSS THE MID-STATE, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL, DRY
AIR AND LOWER SFC DEW POINTS. EXPECT A CHILLY SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S, WITH SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOW LYING AREAS.

A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS OVER OUR AREA INTO LATE WEEK, WITH LOWS
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LIKELY TO SINK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S, WITH SOME MIDDLE 30S AND PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE OVER OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BOTH MORNINGS.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN SOME 4 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE AN AFTERNOON WARM-UP ENSUES NEXT WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...ECMWF FORECAST FOR THE LATE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS,
ACCORDING TO WPC, A "LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO," AND HAVE GONE
CLOSER WITH THE GFS SOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. AND JUST OFF THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD, AND A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. BY NEXT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WE WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO NORMS,
WITH NASHVILLE HIGHS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH THE LOWER 70S
AGAIN. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
GIVING US A NICE LONG BREAK FROM THE "POST-SEPTEMBER DRIP" WE
EXPERIENCED EARLIER THIS MONTH.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KMEG 192312
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
612 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MIDSOUTH WILL BEGIN TO
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR
EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. EXPECT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 40 NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS EASTERN
ARKANSAS/NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S IN
THE CITY OF MEMPHIS.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT. EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE MIDSOUTH FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

MODELS HAVE DIVERGED ON SOLUTIONS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LOW BEING CLOSED OFF
THAT WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS NO LONGER DEVELOPS THE CLOSED LOW AND BRINGS A
QUICK MOVING UPPER TROUGH THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THE MODEL THEN
BRINGS A MUCH STRONGER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL SOLUTION IS CORRECT...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE A DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. ALTHOUGH...CAN/T RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS IF THE ECMWF
IS CORRECT AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST. ALSO TEMPERATURES
COULD ALSO BE WARMER NEXT WEEKEND IF THE GFS IS CORRECT. FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE FORECAST AS IS.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS AND LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. SOME PATCHY EARLY
MORNING FOG POSSIBLE AROUND KMKL.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 192312
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
612 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MIDSOUTH WILL BEGIN TO
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR
EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. EXPECT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 40 NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS EASTERN
ARKANSAS/NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S IN
THE CITY OF MEMPHIS.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT. EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE MIDSOUTH FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

MODELS HAVE DIVERGED ON SOLUTIONS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LOW BEING CLOSED OFF
THAT WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS NO LONGER DEVELOPS THE CLOSED LOW AND BRINGS A
QUICK MOVING UPPER TROUGH THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THE MODEL THEN
BRINGS A MUCH STRONGER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL SOLUTION IS CORRECT...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE A DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. ALTHOUGH...CAN/T RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS IF THE ECMWF
IS CORRECT AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST. ALSO TEMPERATURES
COULD ALSO BE WARMER NEXT WEEKEND IF THE GFS IS CORRECT. FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE FORECAST AS IS.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS AND LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. SOME PATCHY EARLY
MORNING FOG POSSIBLE AROUND KMKL.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 192312
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
612 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MIDSOUTH WILL BEGIN TO
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR
EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. EXPECT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 40 NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS EASTERN
ARKANSAS/NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S IN
THE CITY OF MEMPHIS.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT. EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE MIDSOUTH FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

MODELS HAVE DIVERGED ON SOLUTIONS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LOW BEING CLOSED OFF
THAT WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS NO LONGER DEVELOPS THE CLOSED LOW AND BRINGS A
QUICK MOVING UPPER TROUGH THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THE MODEL THEN
BRINGS A MUCH STRONGER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL SOLUTION IS CORRECT...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE A DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. ALTHOUGH...CAN/T RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS IF THE ECMWF
IS CORRECT AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST. ALSO TEMPERATURES
COULD ALSO BE WARMER NEXT WEEKEND IF THE GFS IS CORRECT. FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE FORECAST AS IS.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS AND LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. SOME PATCHY EARLY
MORNING FOG POSSIBLE AROUND KMKL.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 192312
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
612 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MIDSOUTH WILL BEGIN TO
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR
EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. EXPECT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 40 NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS EASTERN
ARKANSAS/NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S IN
THE CITY OF MEMPHIS.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT. EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE MIDSOUTH FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

MODELS HAVE DIVERGED ON SOLUTIONS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LOW BEING CLOSED OFF
THAT WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS NO LONGER DEVELOPS THE CLOSED LOW AND BRINGS A
QUICK MOVING UPPER TROUGH THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THE MODEL THEN
BRINGS A MUCH STRONGER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL SOLUTION IS CORRECT...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE A DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. ALTHOUGH...CAN/T RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS IF THE ECMWF
IS CORRECT AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST. ALSO TEMPERATURES
COULD ALSO BE WARMER NEXT WEEKEND IF THE GFS IS CORRECT. FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE FORECAST AS IS.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS AND LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. SOME PATCHY EARLY
MORNING FOG POSSIBLE AROUND KMKL.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMRX 192306
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
706 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH NO
CONCERNS FOR AVIATION. THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. THE CLOUD BASE WILL GRADUALLY BE LOWERING
THROUGH TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY AT TRI...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT
VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME SW TOMORROW AT
5-10 KTS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR EAST POLK-
     HANCOCK-HAWKINS-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 192306
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
706 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH NO
CONCERNS FOR AVIATION. THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. THE CLOUD BASE WILL GRADUALLY BE LOWERING
THROUGH TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY AT TRI...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT
VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME SW TOMORROW AT
5-10 KTS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR EAST POLK-
     HANCOCK-HAWKINS-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

DGS



000
FXUS64 KMRX 192306
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
706 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH NO
CONCERNS FOR AVIATION. THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. THE CLOUD BASE WILL GRADUALLY BE LOWERING
THROUGH TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY AT TRI...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT
VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME SW TOMORROW AT
5-10 KTS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR EAST POLK-
     HANCOCK-HAWKINS-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

DGS



000
FXUS64 KMRX 192306
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
706 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH NO
CONCERNS FOR AVIATION. THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. THE CLOUD BASE WILL GRADUALLY BE LOWERING
THROUGH TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY AT TRI...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT
VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME SW TOMORROW AT
5-10 KTS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR EAST POLK-
     HANCOCK-HAWKINS-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMEG 191952
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MIDSOUTH WILL BEGIN TO
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR
EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. EXPECT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 40 NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS EASTERN
ARKANSAS/NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S IN
THE CITY OF MEMPHIS.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT. EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE MIDSOUTH FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

MODELS HAVE DIVERGED ON SOLUTIONS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LOW BEING CLOSED OFF
THAT WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS NO LONGER DEVELOPS THE CLOSED LOW AND BRINGS A
QUICK MOVING UPPER TROUGH THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THE MODEL THEN
BRINGS A MUCH STRONGER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL SOLUTION IS CORRECT...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE A DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. ALTHOUGH...CAN/T RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS IF THE ECMWF
IS CORRECT AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST. ALSO TEMPERATURES
COULD ALSO BE WARMER NEXT WEEKEND IF THE GFS IS CORRECT. FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE FORECAST AS IS.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND KMKL.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 191952
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MIDSOUTH WILL BEGIN TO
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR
EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. EXPECT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 40 NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS EASTERN
ARKANSAS/NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S IN
THE CITY OF MEMPHIS.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT. EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE MIDSOUTH FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

MODELS HAVE DIVERGED ON SOLUTIONS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LOW BEING CLOSED OFF
THAT WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS NO LONGER DEVELOPS THE CLOSED LOW AND BRINGS A
QUICK MOVING UPPER TROUGH THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THE MODEL THEN
BRINGS A MUCH STRONGER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL SOLUTION IS CORRECT...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE A DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. ALTHOUGH...CAN/T RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS IF THE ECMWF
IS CORRECT AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST. ALSO TEMPERATURES
COULD ALSO BE WARMER NEXT WEEKEND IF THE GFS IS CORRECT. FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE FORECAST AS IS.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND KMKL.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 191926
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
226 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...A SUNNY AND COOL OCTOBER AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS OVER
THE MID STATE, WITH 100 PM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S...HEADED TOWARD HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID STATE TONIGHT AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THESE CLOUDS SWEEP OFF
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY NOON MONDAY. HOWEVER, BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
A BAND OF HIGH 1000-850MB MOISTURE SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME SCT-BKN STRATOCU, ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES. THIS BAND OF COLD AIR
STRATOCU MAY PESTER US INTO TOMORROW NIGHT, AND HAVE GONE WITH
SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS WORKING THEIR WAY TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
OVERNIGHT.

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS RUNNING FOR OUR NORTHEAST
TOMORROW. HOWEVER, PULLING RAIN OUT OF THE CLOUDS TOMORROW WILL BE
ABOUT LIKE TRYING TO SQUEEZE BLOOD OUT OF THE PROVERBIAL TURNIP.
DON`T EXPECT STRATOCU TOMORROW NIGHT TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN. SO, HAVE
TAKEN OUT MENTION OF ANY PRECIP IN OUR NORTHEAST FOR THAT PERIOD.

EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
SWEEPS ACROSS THE MID-STATE, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL, DRY
AIR AND LOWER SFC DEW POINTS. EXPECT A CHILLY SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S, WITH SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOW LYING AREAS.

A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS OVER OUR AREA INTO LATE WEEK, WITH LOWS
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LIKELY TO SINK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S, WITH SOME MIDDLE 30S AND PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE OVER OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BOTH MORNINGS.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN SOME 4 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE AN AFTERNOON WARM-UP ENSUES NEXT WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...ECMWF FORECAST FOR THE LATE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS,
ACCORDING TO WPC, A "LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO," AND HAVE GONE
CLOSER WITH THE GFS SOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. AND JUST OFF THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD, AND A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. BY NEXT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WE WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO NORMS,
WITH NASHVILLE HIGHS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH THE LOWER 70S
AGAIN. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
GIVING US A NICE LONG BREAK FROM THE "POST-SEPTEMBER DRIP" WE
EXPERIENCED EARLIER THIS MONTH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      45  68  48  67 /   0  10  10   0
CLARKSVILLE    44  67  45  66 /   0  10  10   0
CROSSVILLE     43  65  46  61 /   0  20  10   0
COLUMBIA       42  70  47  69 /   0  05  10   0
LAWRENCEBURG   44  70  47  70 /   0  05  10   0
WAVERLY        45  69  47  69 /   0  05  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 191926
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
226 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...A SUNNY AND COOL OCTOBER AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS OVER
THE MID STATE, WITH 100 PM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S...HEADED TOWARD HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID STATE TONIGHT AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THESE CLOUDS SWEEP OFF
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY NOON MONDAY. HOWEVER, BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
A BAND OF HIGH 1000-850MB MOISTURE SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME SCT-BKN STRATOCU, ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES. THIS BAND OF COLD AIR
STRATOCU MAY PESTER US INTO TOMORROW NIGHT, AND HAVE GONE WITH
SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS WORKING THEIR WAY TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
OVERNIGHT.

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS RUNNING FOR OUR NORTHEAST
TOMORROW. HOWEVER, PULLING RAIN OUT OF THE CLOUDS TOMORROW WILL BE
ABOUT LIKE TRYING TO SQUEEZE BLOOD OUT OF THE PROVERBIAL TURNIP.
DON`T EXPECT STRATOCU TOMORROW NIGHT TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN. SO, HAVE
TAKEN OUT MENTION OF ANY PRECIP IN OUR NORTHEAST FOR THAT PERIOD.

EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
SWEEPS ACROSS THE MID-STATE, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL, DRY
AIR AND LOWER SFC DEW POINTS. EXPECT A CHILLY SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S, WITH SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOW LYING AREAS.

A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS OVER OUR AREA INTO LATE WEEK, WITH LOWS
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LIKELY TO SINK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S, WITH SOME MIDDLE 30S AND PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE OVER OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BOTH MORNINGS.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN SOME 4 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE AN AFTERNOON WARM-UP ENSUES NEXT WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...ECMWF FORECAST FOR THE LATE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS,
ACCORDING TO WPC, A "LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO," AND HAVE GONE
CLOSER WITH THE GFS SOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. AND JUST OFF THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD, AND A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. BY NEXT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WE WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO NORMS,
WITH NASHVILLE HIGHS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH THE LOWER 70S
AGAIN. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
GIVING US A NICE LONG BREAK FROM THE "POST-SEPTEMBER DRIP" WE
EXPERIENCED EARLIER THIS MONTH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      45  68  48  67 /   0  10  10   0
CLARKSVILLE    44  67  45  66 /   0  10  10   0
CROSSVILLE     43  65  46  61 /   0  20  10   0
COLUMBIA       42  70  47  69 /   0  05  10   0
LAWRENCEBURG   44  70  47  70 /   0  05  10   0
WAVERLY        45  69  47  69 /   0  05  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 191926
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
226 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...A SUNNY AND COOL OCTOBER AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS OVER
THE MID STATE, WITH 100 PM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S...HEADED TOWARD HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID STATE TONIGHT AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THESE CLOUDS SWEEP OFF
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY NOON MONDAY. HOWEVER, BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
A BAND OF HIGH 1000-850MB MOISTURE SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME SCT-BKN STRATOCU, ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES. THIS BAND OF COLD AIR
STRATOCU MAY PESTER US INTO TOMORROW NIGHT, AND HAVE GONE WITH
SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS WORKING THEIR WAY TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
OVERNIGHT.

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS RUNNING FOR OUR NORTHEAST
TOMORROW. HOWEVER, PULLING RAIN OUT OF THE CLOUDS TOMORROW WILL BE
ABOUT LIKE TRYING TO SQUEEZE BLOOD OUT OF THE PROVERBIAL TURNIP.
DON`T EXPECT STRATOCU TOMORROW NIGHT TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN. SO, HAVE
TAKEN OUT MENTION OF ANY PRECIP IN OUR NORTHEAST FOR THAT PERIOD.

EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
SWEEPS ACROSS THE MID-STATE, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL, DRY
AIR AND LOWER SFC DEW POINTS. EXPECT A CHILLY SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S, WITH SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOW LYING AREAS.

A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS OVER OUR AREA INTO LATE WEEK, WITH LOWS
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LIKELY TO SINK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S, WITH SOME MIDDLE 30S AND PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE OVER OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BOTH MORNINGS.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN SOME 4 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE AN AFTERNOON WARM-UP ENSUES NEXT WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...ECMWF FORECAST FOR THE LATE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS,
ACCORDING TO WPC, A "LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO," AND HAVE GONE
CLOSER WITH THE GFS SOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. AND JUST OFF THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD, AND A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. BY NEXT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WE WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO NORMS,
WITH NASHVILLE HIGHS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH THE LOWER 70S
AGAIN. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
GIVING US A NICE LONG BREAK FROM THE "POST-SEPTEMBER DRIP" WE
EXPERIENCED EARLIER THIS MONTH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      45  68  48  67 /   0  10  10   0
CLARKSVILLE    44  67  45  66 /   0  10  10   0
CROSSVILLE     43  65  46  61 /   0  20  10   0
COLUMBIA       42  70  47  69 /   0  05  10   0
LAWRENCEBURG   44  70  47  70 /   0  05  10   0
WAVERLY        45  69  47  69 /   0  05  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 191926
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
226 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...A SUNNY AND COOL OCTOBER AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS OVER
THE MID STATE, WITH 100 PM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S...HEADED TOWARD HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID STATE TONIGHT AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THESE CLOUDS SWEEP OFF
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY NOON MONDAY. HOWEVER, BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
A BAND OF HIGH 1000-850MB MOISTURE SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME SCT-BKN STRATOCU, ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES. THIS BAND OF COLD AIR
STRATOCU MAY PESTER US INTO TOMORROW NIGHT, AND HAVE GONE WITH
SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS WORKING THEIR WAY TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
OVERNIGHT.

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS RUNNING FOR OUR NORTHEAST
TOMORROW. HOWEVER, PULLING RAIN OUT OF THE CLOUDS TOMORROW WILL BE
ABOUT LIKE TRYING TO SQUEEZE BLOOD OUT OF THE PROVERBIAL TURNIP.
DON`T EXPECT STRATOCU TOMORROW NIGHT TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN. SO, HAVE
TAKEN OUT MENTION OF ANY PRECIP IN OUR NORTHEAST FOR THAT PERIOD.

EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
SWEEPS ACROSS THE MID-STATE, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL, DRY
AIR AND LOWER SFC DEW POINTS. EXPECT A CHILLY SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S, WITH SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOW LYING AREAS.

A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS OVER OUR AREA INTO LATE WEEK, WITH LOWS
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LIKELY TO SINK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S, WITH SOME MIDDLE 30S AND PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE OVER OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BOTH MORNINGS.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN SOME 4 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE AN AFTERNOON WARM-UP ENSUES NEXT WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...ECMWF FORECAST FOR THE LATE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS,
ACCORDING TO WPC, A "LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO," AND HAVE GONE
CLOSER WITH THE GFS SOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. AND JUST OFF THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD, AND A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. BY NEXT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WE WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO NORMS,
WITH NASHVILLE HIGHS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH THE LOWER 70S
AGAIN. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
GIVING US A NICE LONG BREAK FROM THE "POST-SEPTEMBER DRIP" WE
EXPERIENCED EARLIER THIS MONTH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      45  68  48  67 /   0  10  10   0
CLARKSVILLE    44  67  45  66 /   0  10  10   0
CROSSVILLE     43  65  46  61 /   0  20  10   0
COLUMBIA       42  70  47  69 /   0  05  10   0
LAWRENCEBURG   44  70  47  70 /   0  05  10   0
WAVERLY        45  69  47  69 /   0  05  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KMRX 191910
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA...WITH DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
BOUNDARY LAYER IS DRY WITH SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS HIGH...SO COULD SEE
PATCHY FROST IN MAINLY NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
WILL GO WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THE AREAS STILL IN THE FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...STILL ADVERTISING EAST
COAST TROUGHING WHOSE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL DOG THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF-TO-QUARTER OF THE AREA WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL THEN MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING THAT REGION WITH DRY WEATHER WED NGT
THROUGH SUNDAY. IN CONTRAST...THE CHATTANOOGA VICINITY WILL LIKELY
BE DRY THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED...BEING TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE FIELD. FINALLY...FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A GREAT UPCOMING WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             44  71  49  71 /   0  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  43  68  48  67 /   0  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       42  67  49  67 /   0  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              37  67  45  62 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR EAST POLK-
     HANCOCK-HAWKINS-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

JW/GC



000
FXUS64 KMRX 191910
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA...WITH DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
BOUNDARY LAYER IS DRY WITH SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS HIGH...SO COULD SEE
PATCHY FROST IN MAINLY NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
WILL GO WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THE AREAS STILL IN THE FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...STILL ADVERTISING EAST
COAST TROUGHING WHOSE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL DOG THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF-TO-QUARTER OF THE AREA WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL THEN MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING THAT REGION WITH DRY WEATHER WED NGT
THROUGH SUNDAY. IN CONTRAST...THE CHATTANOOGA VICINITY WILL LIKELY
BE DRY THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED...BEING TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE FIELD. FINALLY...FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A GREAT UPCOMING WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             44  71  49  71 /   0  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  43  68  48  67 /   0  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       42  67  49  67 /   0  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              37  67  45  62 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR EAST POLK-
     HANCOCK-HAWKINS-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

JW/GC




000
FXUS64 KOHX 191822
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
122 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...

18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE MID STATE ALTHOUGH SOME
CIRRUS IS NOW BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVERHEAD. LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS TONIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG AT CKV/CSV WITH
MVFR VIS TOWARDS SUNRISE. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH OR CALM OVERNIGHT.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE EAST BUT ARE GRADUALLY
BREAKING UP PER LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THUS EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY AFTERNOON IN ALL AREAS...WITH NO CHANGES TO
TEMPS AND HIGHS STILL EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S PLATEAU TO 60S
ELSEWHERE. ENJOY THE NICE DAY!

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
STRATOCU DECK STILL WORKING DOWN FROM THE NORTH BUT HAS DIMINISHED
IN COVERAGE OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA AND DOWN THROUGH KENTUCKY LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT A TEMPORARILY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILING
AROUND 25 HUNDRED FEET THROUGH 14Z-15Z TIME FRAME AT NASHVILLE AND
CROSSVILLE. SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY OUT OF THE NORTH BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY AFTER 00Z
THIS EVENING.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KOHX 191822
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
122 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...

18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE MID STATE ALTHOUGH SOME
CIRRUS IS NOW BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVERHEAD. LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS TONIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG AT CKV/CSV WITH
MVFR VIS TOWARDS SUNRISE. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH OR CALM OVERNIGHT.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE EAST BUT ARE GRADUALLY
BREAKING UP PER LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THUS EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY AFTERNOON IN ALL AREAS...WITH NO CHANGES TO
TEMPS AND HIGHS STILL EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S PLATEAU TO 60S
ELSEWHERE. ENJOY THE NICE DAY!

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
STRATOCU DECK STILL WORKING DOWN FROM THE NORTH BUT HAS DIMINISHED
IN COVERAGE OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA AND DOWN THROUGH KENTUCKY LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT A TEMPORARILY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILING
AROUND 25 HUNDRED FEET THROUGH 14Z-15Z TIME FRAME AT NASHVILLE AND
CROSSVILLE. SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY OUT OF THE NORTH BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY AFTER 00Z
THIS EVENING.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KOHX 191822
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
122 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...

18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE MID STATE ALTHOUGH SOME
CIRRUS IS NOW BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVERHEAD. LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS TONIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG AT CKV/CSV WITH
MVFR VIS TOWARDS SUNRISE. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH OR CALM OVERNIGHT.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE EAST BUT ARE GRADUALLY
BREAKING UP PER LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THUS EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY AFTERNOON IN ALL AREAS...WITH NO CHANGES TO
TEMPS AND HIGHS STILL EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S PLATEAU TO 60S
ELSEWHERE. ENJOY THE NICE DAY!

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
STRATOCU DECK STILL WORKING DOWN FROM THE NORTH BUT HAS DIMINISHED
IN COVERAGE OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA AND DOWN THROUGH KENTUCKY LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT A TEMPORARILY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILING
AROUND 25 HUNDRED FEET THROUGH 14Z-15Z TIME FRAME AT NASHVILLE AND
CROSSVILLE. SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY OUT OF THE NORTH BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY AFTER 00Z
THIS EVENING.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KOHX 191822
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
122 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...

18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE MID STATE ALTHOUGH SOME
CIRRUS IS NOW BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVERHEAD. LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS TONIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG AT CKV/CSV WITH
MVFR VIS TOWARDS SUNRISE. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH OR CALM OVERNIGHT.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE EAST BUT ARE GRADUALLY
BREAKING UP PER LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THUS EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY AFTERNOON IN ALL AREAS...WITH NO CHANGES TO
TEMPS AND HIGHS STILL EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S PLATEAU TO 60S
ELSEWHERE. ENJOY THE NICE DAY!

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
STRATOCU DECK STILL WORKING DOWN FROM THE NORTH BUT HAS DIMINISHED
IN COVERAGE OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA AND DOWN THROUGH KENTUCKY LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT A TEMPORARILY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILING
AROUND 25 HUNDRED FEET THROUGH 14Z-15Z TIME FRAME AT NASHVILLE AND
CROSSVILLE. SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY OUT OF THE NORTH BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY AFTER 00Z
THIS EVENING.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KMEG 191817
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
117 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

UPDATE...

TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THIS MORNING.
ONLY EXPECT HIGHS TO GET INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

NICE AUTUMN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDSOUTH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY AND
COOL TO MILD. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST SPREADING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE AREA.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MO FROM THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING...BUT MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY RAIN WITH THE FRONT. KEPT POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE PLEASANT AHEAD OF THE FRONT CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY AND MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON
TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND EXTEND
OVER THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY. RAIN FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH COOL TO MILD TEMPERATURES.

THE ECMWF AND GFS THEN DISAGREE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN
THE HANDLING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND THE
FORMING OF A CLOSED LOW. THE GFS BRINGS THE CLOSED LOW FURTHER
EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH INDICATING SOME CHANCE OF
RAIN MAINLY FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHWEST MS. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
LOW FURTHER TO THE WEST AS IT DIGS SOUTHWARD...WITH LITTLE OR NO
RAIN FOR THE MIDSOUTH. FOR NOW KEPT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND
FOLLOWED THE ECMWF...A RAIN FREE FORECAST.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH ANY THREAT OF RAIN OUT OF
THE MIDSOUTH. ATTM...LOOKS LIKE NEXT WEEKEND WILL OFFER MORE
TERRIFIC WEATHER WILL MILD AFTERNOONS...COOL NIGHTS...AND NO
RAIN.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND KMKL.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 191817
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
117 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

UPDATE...

TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THIS MORNING.
ONLY EXPECT HIGHS TO GET INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

NICE AUTUMN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDSOUTH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY AND
COOL TO MILD. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST SPREADING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE AREA.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MO FROM THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING...BUT MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY RAIN WITH THE FRONT. KEPT POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE PLEASANT AHEAD OF THE FRONT CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY AND MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON
TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND EXTEND
OVER THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY. RAIN FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH COOL TO MILD TEMPERATURES.

THE ECMWF AND GFS THEN DISAGREE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN
THE HANDLING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND THE
FORMING OF A CLOSED LOW. THE GFS BRINGS THE CLOSED LOW FURTHER
EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH INDICATING SOME CHANCE OF
RAIN MAINLY FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHWEST MS. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
LOW FURTHER TO THE WEST AS IT DIGS SOUTHWARD...WITH LITTLE OR NO
RAIN FOR THE MIDSOUTH. FOR NOW KEPT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND
FOLLOWED THE ECMWF...A RAIN FREE FORECAST.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH ANY THREAT OF RAIN OUT OF
THE MIDSOUTH. ATTM...LOOKS LIKE NEXT WEEKEND WILL OFFER MORE
TERRIFIC WEATHER WILL MILD AFTERNOONS...COOL NIGHTS...AND NO
RAIN.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND KMKL.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMRX 191712
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
112 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW



000
FXUS64 KMRX 191712
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
112 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW




000
FXUS64 KMEG 191520
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1020 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...

TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THIS MORNING.
ONLY EXPECT HIGHS TO GET INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

NICE AUTUMN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDSOUTH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY AND
COOL TO MILD. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST SPREADING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE AREA.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MO FROM THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING...BUT MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY RAIN WITH THE FRONT. KEPT POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE PLEASANT AHEAD OF THE FRONT CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY AND MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON
TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND EXTEND
OVER THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY. RAIN FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH COOL TO MILD TEMPERATURES.

THE ECMWF AND GFS THEN DISAGREE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN
THE HANDLING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND THE
FORMING OF A CLOSED LOW. THE GFS BRINGS THE CLOSED LOW FURTHER
EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH INDICATING SOME CHANCE OF
RAIN MAINLY FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHWEST MS. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
LOW FURTHER TO THE WEST AS IT DIGS SOUTHWARD...WITH LITTLE OR NO
RAIN FOR THE MIDSOUTH. FOR NOW KEPT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND
FOLLOWED THE ECMWF...A RAIN FREE FORECAST.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH ANY THREAT OF RAIN OUT OF
THE MIDSOUTH. ATTM...LOOKS LIKE NEXT WEEKEND WILL OFFER MORE
TERRIFIC WEATHER WILL MILD AFTERNOONS...COOL NIGHTS...AND NO
RAIN.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. NE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS...SHIFTING
SOUTH TOWARDS END OF PERIOD.

AC3

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 191520
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1020 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...

TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THIS MORNING.
ONLY EXPECT HIGHS TO GET INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

NICE AUTUMN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDSOUTH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY AND
COOL TO MILD. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST SPREADING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE AREA.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MO FROM THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING...BUT MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY RAIN WITH THE FRONT. KEPT POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE PLEASANT AHEAD OF THE FRONT CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY AND MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON
TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND EXTEND
OVER THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY. RAIN FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH COOL TO MILD TEMPERATURES.

THE ECMWF AND GFS THEN DISAGREE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN
THE HANDLING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND THE
FORMING OF A CLOSED LOW. THE GFS BRINGS THE CLOSED LOW FURTHER
EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH INDICATING SOME CHANCE OF
RAIN MAINLY FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHWEST MS. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
LOW FURTHER TO THE WEST AS IT DIGS SOUTHWARD...WITH LITTLE OR NO
RAIN FOR THE MIDSOUTH. FOR NOW KEPT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND
FOLLOWED THE ECMWF...A RAIN FREE FORECAST.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH ANY THREAT OF RAIN OUT OF
THE MIDSOUTH. ATTM...LOOKS LIKE NEXT WEEKEND WILL OFFER MORE
TERRIFIC WEATHER WILL MILD AFTERNOONS...COOL NIGHTS...AND NO
RAIN.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. NE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS...SHIFTING
SOUTH TOWARDS END OF PERIOD.

AC3

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 191520
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1020 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...

TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THIS MORNING.
ONLY EXPECT HIGHS TO GET INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

NICE AUTUMN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDSOUTH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY AND
COOL TO MILD. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST SPREADING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE AREA.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MO FROM THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING...BUT MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY RAIN WITH THE FRONT. KEPT POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE PLEASANT AHEAD OF THE FRONT CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY AND MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON
TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND EXTEND
OVER THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY. RAIN FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH COOL TO MILD TEMPERATURES.

THE ECMWF AND GFS THEN DISAGREE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN
THE HANDLING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND THE
FORMING OF A CLOSED LOW. THE GFS BRINGS THE CLOSED LOW FURTHER
EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH INDICATING SOME CHANCE OF
RAIN MAINLY FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHWEST MS. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
LOW FURTHER TO THE WEST AS IT DIGS SOUTHWARD...WITH LITTLE OR NO
RAIN FOR THE MIDSOUTH. FOR NOW KEPT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND
FOLLOWED THE ECMWF...A RAIN FREE FORECAST.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH ANY THREAT OF RAIN OUT OF
THE MIDSOUTH. ATTM...LOOKS LIKE NEXT WEEKEND WILL OFFER MORE
TERRIFIC WEATHER WILL MILD AFTERNOONS...COOL NIGHTS...AND NO
RAIN.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. NE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS...SHIFTING
SOUTH TOWARDS END OF PERIOD.

AC3

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 191520
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1020 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...

TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THIS MORNING.
ONLY EXPECT HIGHS TO GET INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

NICE AUTUMN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDSOUTH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY AND
COOL TO MILD. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST SPREADING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE AREA.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MO FROM THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING...BUT MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY RAIN WITH THE FRONT. KEPT POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE PLEASANT AHEAD OF THE FRONT CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY AND MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON
TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND EXTEND
OVER THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY. RAIN FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH COOL TO MILD TEMPERATURES.

THE ECMWF AND GFS THEN DISAGREE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN
THE HANDLING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND THE
FORMING OF A CLOSED LOW. THE GFS BRINGS THE CLOSED LOW FURTHER
EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH INDICATING SOME CHANCE OF
RAIN MAINLY FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHWEST MS. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
LOW FURTHER TO THE WEST AS IT DIGS SOUTHWARD...WITH LITTLE OR NO
RAIN FOR THE MIDSOUTH. FOR NOW KEPT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND
FOLLOWED THE ECMWF...A RAIN FREE FORECAST.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH ANY THREAT OF RAIN OUT OF
THE MIDSOUTH. ATTM...LOOKS LIKE NEXT WEEKEND WILL OFFER MORE
TERRIFIC WEATHER WILL MILD AFTERNOONS...COOL NIGHTS...AND NO
RAIN.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. NE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS...SHIFTING
SOUTH TOWARDS END OF PERIOD.

AC3

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 191443
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
943 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE EAST BUT ARE GRADUALLY
BREAKING UP PER LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THUS EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY AFTERNOON IN ALL AREAS...WITH NO CHANGES TO
TEMPS AND HIGHS STILL EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S PLATEAU TO 60S
ELSEWHERE. ENJOY THE NICE DAY!

SHAMBURGER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
STRATOCU DECK STILL WORKING DOWN FROM THE NORTH BUT HAS DIMINISHED
IN COVERAGE OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA AND DOWN THROUGH KENTUCKY LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT A TEMPORARILY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILING
AROUND 25 HUNDRED FEET THROUGH 14Z-15Z TIME FRAME AT NASHVILLE AND
CROSSVILLE. SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY OUT OF THE NORTH BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY AFTER 00Z
THIS EVENING.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KOHX 191443
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
943 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE EAST BUT ARE GRADUALLY
BREAKING UP PER LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THUS EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY AFTERNOON IN ALL AREAS...WITH NO CHANGES TO
TEMPS AND HIGHS STILL EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S PLATEAU TO 60S
ELSEWHERE. ENJOY THE NICE DAY!

SHAMBURGER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
STRATOCU DECK STILL WORKING DOWN FROM THE NORTH BUT HAS DIMINISHED
IN COVERAGE OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA AND DOWN THROUGH KENTUCKY LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT A TEMPORARILY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILING
AROUND 25 HUNDRED FEET THROUGH 14Z-15Z TIME FRAME AT NASHVILLE AND
CROSSVILLE. SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY OUT OF THE NORTH BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY AFTER 00Z
THIS EVENING.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KOHX 191443
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
943 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE EAST BUT ARE GRADUALLY
BREAKING UP PER LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THUS EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY AFTERNOON IN ALL AREAS...WITH NO CHANGES TO
TEMPS AND HIGHS STILL EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S PLATEAU TO 60S
ELSEWHERE. ENJOY THE NICE DAY!

SHAMBURGER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
STRATOCU DECK STILL WORKING DOWN FROM THE NORTH BUT HAS DIMINISHED
IN COVERAGE OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA AND DOWN THROUGH KENTUCKY LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT A TEMPORARILY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILING
AROUND 25 HUNDRED FEET THROUGH 14Z-15Z TIME FRAME AT NASHVILLE AND
CROSSVILLE. SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY OUT OF THE NORTH BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY AFTER 00Z
THIS EVENING.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KOHX 191443
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
943 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE EAST BUT ARE GRADUALLY
BREAKING UP PER LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THUS EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY AFTERNOON IN ALL AREAS...WITH NO CHANGES TO
TEMPS AND HIGHS STILL EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S PLATEAU TO 60S
ELSEWHERE. ENJOY THE NICE DAY!

SHAMBURGER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
STRATOCU DECK STILL WORKING DOWN FROM THE NORTH BUT HAS DIMINISHED
IN COVERAGE OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA AND DOWN THROUGH KENTUCKY LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT A TEMPORARILY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILING
AROUND 25 HUNDRED FEET THROUGH 14Z-15Z TIME FRAME AT NASHVILLE AND
CROSSVILLE. SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY OUT OF THE NORTH BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY AFTER 00Z
THIS EVENING.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KMRX 191347
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
947 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...OVERALL FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. ADJUSTED TEMPS TO
REFLECT THE FASTER WARMING THAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN...WITH CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO MOVE OUT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             66  44  71  49 /   0   0  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  42  68  48 /   0   0  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       64  41  67  49 /   0   0  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              61  37  67  42 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW



000
FXUS64 KMRX 191347
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
947 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...OVERALL FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. ADJUSTED TEMPS TO
REFLECT THE FASTER WARMING THAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN...WITH CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO MOVE OUT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             66  44  71  49 /   0   0  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  42  68  48 /   0   0  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       64  41  67  49 /   0   0  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              61  37  67  42 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW




000
FXUS64 KOHX 191221
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
721 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
STRATOCU DECK STILL WORKING DOWN FROM THE NORTH BUT HAS DIMINSHED
IN COVERAGE OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA AND DOWN THROUGH KENTUCKY LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT A TEMPORARILY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILING
AROUND 25 HUNDRED FEET THROUGH 14Z-15Z TIME FRAME AT NASHVILLE AND
CROSSVILLE. SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS INITALLY OUT OF THE NORTH BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY AFTER 00Z
THIS EVENING.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 191221
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
721 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
STRATOCU DECK STILL WORKING DOWN FROM THE NORTH BUT HAS DIMINSHED
IN COVERAGE OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA AND DOWN THROUGH KENTUCKY LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT A TEMPORARILY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILING
AROUND 25 HUNDRED FEET THROUGH 14Z-15Z TIME FRAME AT NASHVILLE AND
CROSSVILLE. SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS INITALLY OUT OF THE NORTH BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY AFTER 00Z
THIS EVENING.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KMEG 191151
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
651 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

NICE AUTUMN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDSOUTH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY AND
COOL TO MILD. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST SPREADING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE AREA.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MO FROM THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING...BUT MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY RAIN WITH THE FRONT. KEPT POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE PLEASANT AHEAD OF THE FRONT CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY AND MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON
TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND EXTEND
OVER THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY. RAIN FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH COOL TO MILD TEMPERATURES.

THE ECMWF AND GFS THEN DISAGREE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN
THE HANDLING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND THE
FORMING OF A CLOSED LOW. THE GFS BRINGS THE CLOSED LOW FURTHER
EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH INDICATING SOME CHANCE OF
RAIN MAINLY FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHWEST MS. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
LOW FURTHER TO THE WEST AS IT DIGS SOUTHWARD...WITH LITTLE OR NO
RAIN FOR THE MIDSOUTH. FOR NOW KEPT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND
FOLLOWED THE ECMWF...A RAIN FREE FORECAST.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH ANY THREAT OF RAIN OUT OF
THE MIDSOUTH. ATTM...LOOKS LIKE NEXT WEEKEND WILL OFFER MORE
TERRIFIC WEATHER WILL MILD AFTERNOONS...COOL NIGHTS...AND NO
RAIN.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. NE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS...SHIFTING
SOUTH TOWARDS END OF PERIOD.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 191151
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
651 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

NICE AUTUMN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDSOUTH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY AND
COOL TO MILD. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST SPREADING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE AREA.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MO FROM THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING...BUT MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY RAIN WITH THE FRONT. KEPT POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE PLEASANT AHEAD OF THE FRONT CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY AND MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON
TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND EXTEND
OVER THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY. RAIN FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH COOL TO MILD TEMPERATURES.

THE ECMWF AND GFS THEN DISAGREE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN
THE HANDLING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND THE
FORMING OF A CLOSED LOW. THE GFS BRINGS THE CLOSED LOW FURTHER
EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH INDICATING SOME CHANCE OF
RAIN MAINLY FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHWEST MS. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
LOW FURTHER TO THE WEST AS IT DIGS SOUTHWARD...WITH LITTLE OR NO
RAIN FOR THE MIDSOUTH. FOR NOW KEPT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND
FOLLOWED THE ECMWF...A RAIN FREE FORECAST.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH ANY THREAT OF RAIN OUT OF
THE MIDSOUTH. ATTM...LOOKS LIKE NEXT WEEKEND WILL OFFER MORE
TERRIFIC WEATHER WILL MILD AFTERNOONS...COOL NIGHTS...AND NO
RAIN.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. NE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS...SHIFTING
SOUTH TOWARDS END OF PERIOD.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMRX 191135
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
735 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUD DECK HAS ADVANCED SOUTHWARD TO AFFECT ALL BUT
SE TN THIS MORNING. A LINGERING MVFR CEILING FOR ABOUT 2 TO 4 HOURS
FOR TYS AND TRI. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL 3 TAF
SITES AFTER THIS MORNING. HIGH CLOUD DECK IS PROGGED FOR LATE
TONIGHT WHICH WOULD INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT,

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG



000
FXUS64 KMRX 191135
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
735 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUD DECK HAS ADVANCED SOUTHWARD TO AFFECT ALL BUT
SE TN THIS MORNING. A LINGERING MVFR CEILING FOR ABOUT 2 TO 4 HOURS
FOR TYS AND TRI. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL 3 TAF
SITES AFTER THIS MORNING. HIGH CLOUD DECK IS PROGGED FOR LATE
TONIGHT WHICH WOULD INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT,

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMEG 190845
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
345 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

NICE AUTUMN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDSOUTH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY AND
COOL TO MILD. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST SPREADING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE AREA.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MO FROM THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING...BUT MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY RAIN WITH THE FRONT. KEPT POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE PLEASANT AHEAD OF THE FRONT CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY AND MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON
TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND EXTEND
OVER THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY. RAIN FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH COOL TO MILD TEMPERATURES.

THE ECMWF AND GFS THEN DISAGREE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN
THE HANDLING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND THE
FORMING OF A CLOSED LOW. THE GFS BRINGS THE CLOSED LOW FURTHER
EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH INDICATING SOME CHANCE OF
RAIN MAINLY FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHWEST MS. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
LOW FURTHER TO THE WEST AS IT DIGS SOUTHWARD...WITH LITTLE OR NO
RAIN FOR THE MIDSOUTH. FOR NOW KEPT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND
FOLLOWED THE ECMWF...A RAIN FREE FORECAST.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH ANY THREAT OF RAIN OUT OF
THE MIDSOUTH. ATTM...LOOKS LIKE NEXT WEEKEND WILL OFFER MORE
TERRIFIC WEATHER WILL MILD AFTERNOONS...COOL NIGHTS...AND NO
RAIN.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 5KT TOMORROW FROM THE
EAST...SHIFTING SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 190845
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
345 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

NICE AUTUMN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDSOUTH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY AND
COOL TO MILD. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST SPREADING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE AREA.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MO FROM THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING...BUT MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY RAIN WITH THE FRONT. KEPT POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE PLEASANT AHEAD OF THE FRONT CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY AND MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON
TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND EXTEND
OVER THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY. RAIN FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH COOL TO MILD TEMPERATURES.

THE ECMWF AND GFS THEN DISAGREE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN
THE HANDLING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND THE
FORMING OF A CLOSED LOW. THE GFS BRINGS THE CLOSED LOW FURTHER
EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH INDICATING SOME CHANCE OF
RAIN MAINLY FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHWEST MS. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
LOW FURTHER TO THE WEST AS IT DIGS SOUTHWARD...WITH LITTLE OR NO
RAIN FOR THE MIDSOUTH. FOR NOW KEPT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND
FOLLOWED THE ECMWF...A RAIN FREE FORECAST.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH ANY THREAT OF RAIN OUT OF
THE MIDSOUTH. ATTM...LOOKS LIKE NEXT WEEKEND WILL OFFER MORE
TERRIFIC WEATHER WILL MILD AFTERNOONS...COOL NIGHTS...AND NO
RAIN.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 5KT TOMORROW FROM THE
EAST...SHIFTING SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 190830
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
430 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WAS
SHIFTING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDS
LEFT BEHIND AND NO PRECIPITATION. THESE CLOUDS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS KEPT MIN TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT.

SUNSHINE RETURNS IN NEAR FULL FORCE LATER TODAY...BUT SOME SLIGHT
COOLING OF 850 MB TEMPS. THUS...I KEPT MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO THE MOS
BLEND JUST BELOW THE WARMER GFS MAXES.

WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS.
WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS LATE TONIGHT FOR WESTERN AREAS
AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...MAY SEE MINS DIP AS LOW AS MID OR
UPPER 30S IN A FEW SPOTS OF NE TN AND SW VA. THUS...I ADDED SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF FROST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK. NW FLOW BRINGS SYSTEM SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES THEN
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NE STATES. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR
WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT DROPS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE NE AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE TO THE NE AS MODELS
TRY TO SHOW THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NE STATES. AS MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND IT A FEW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN THE NE SECTIONS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
AS RIDGING REPLACES TROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             66  44  71  49 /   0   0  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  42  68  48 /   0   0  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       64  41  67  49 /   0   0  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              61  37  67  42 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG/TD



000
FXUS64 KMRX 190830
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
430 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WAS
SHIFTING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDS
LEFT BEHIND AND NO PRECIPITATION. THESE CLOUDS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS KEPT MIN TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT.

SUNSHINE RETURNS IN NEAR FULL FORCE LATER TODAY...BUT SOME SLIGHT
COOLING OF 850 MB TEMPS. THUS...I KEPT MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO THE MOS
BLEND JUST BELOW THE WARMER GFS MAXES.

WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS.
WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS LATE TONIGHT FOR WESTERN AREAS
AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...MAY SEE MINS DIP AS LOW AS MID OR
UPPER 30S IN A FEW SPOTS OF NE TN AND SW VA. THUS...I ADDED SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF FROST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK. NW FLOW BRINGS SYSTEM SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES THEN
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NE STATES. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR
WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT DROPS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE NE AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE TO THE NE AS MODELS
TRY TO SHOW THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NE STATES. AS MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND IT A FEW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN THE NE SECTIONS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
AS RIDGING REPLACES TROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             66  44  71  49 /   0   0  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  42  68  48 /   0   0  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       64  41  67  49 /   0   0  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              61  37  67  42 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG/TD




000
FXUS64 KOHX 190707
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
207 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STRATOCU DECK STILL SPILLING DOWN INTO MID STATE FROM THE NORTH.
EXPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THIS MORNING THEN
SCATTERED OUT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAY.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIP EAST BY MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A COOL FRONT
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. PRETTY GOOD UPPER TROUGH WORKS
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
THINK NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND UPPER CUMBERLAND HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND THEN ONLY ABOUT A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MEASURING. UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH MID WEEK KEEPING TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY. UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH SPRAWLS ACROSS THE AREA
KEEPING RAIN CHANCES NEAR ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AND THIS
COMING WEEKEND.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      65  45  69  50 /   0   0  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    62  44  68  48 /   0   0  05  10
CROSSVILLE     60  43  66  48 /   0   0  20  10
COLUMBIA       64  42  70  49 /   0   0  05  10
LAWRENCEBURG   65  44  70  49 /   0   0  05  10
WAVERLY        65  45  70  49 /   0   0  05  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 190707
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
207 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STRATOCU DECK STILL SPILLING DOWN INTO MID STATE FROM THE NORTH.
EXPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THIS MORNING THEN
SCATTERED OUT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAY.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIP EAST BY MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A COOL FRONT
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. PRETTY GOOD UPPER TROUGH WORKS
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
THINK NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND UPPER CUMBERLAND HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND THEN ONLY ABOUT A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MEASURING. UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH MID WEEK KEEPING TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY. UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH SPRAWLS ACROSS THE AREA
KEEPING RAIN CHANCES NEAR ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AND THIS
COMING WEEKEND.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      65  45  69  50 /   0   0  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    62  44  68  48 /   0   0  05  10
CROSSVILLE     60  43  66  48 /   0   0  20  10
COLUMBIA       64  42  70  49 /   0   0  05  10
LAWRENCEBURG   65  44  70  49 /   0   0  05  10
WAVERLY        65  45  70  49 /   0   0  05  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KMRX 190538
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
137 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...CLOUDS MAY PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK FOR TYS AND TRI...
DROPPING INTO MVFR CATEGORY MAINLY OVER NE TN AND SW VA. NOT SEEING
MUCH IF ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THE CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES BY MID
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG



000
FXUS64 KMRX 190538
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
137 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...CLOUDS MAY PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK FOR TYS AND TRI...
DROPPING INTO MVFR CATEGORY MAINLY OVER NE TN AND SW VA. NOT SEEING
MUCH IF ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THE CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES BY MID
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KOHX 190503
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1203 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...

FOR 06Z TAF.

&&

.AVIATION...

CIGS BOUNCING VFR/MVFR CSV VCNTY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
CLOUDS PRETTY FAR UPSTREAM OF THE PLATEAU AND THIS TREND LIKELY
TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12-14Z OR SO. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES AFTER
15Z...WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10KNTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

UPDATE...

FOR 00Z TAFS

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THREE TERMINALS. THE ONLY
FORECAST ISSUE THIS EVENING IS CLOUDS DUE TO A SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE CLOUDS ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN AND WILL MOVE OUT BY 06Z. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL MAKE FOR VFR FLYING CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

REAGAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD AIR HAS SWEPT INTO THE MID STATE WITH MOST AREAS 15 TO 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUDS ALSO DEVELOPED/MOVED INTO
FROM THE NW AND OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THICKEST CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS AT 20Z.

STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS PLUNGING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN
U.S. TROUGH...MOVING ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVE. SKIES WILL CLEAR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE CHILLY TONIGHT...BUT SUNDAY/S MAX TEMPS
WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE SUNSHINE.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE
OH/TN VALLEYS LATE MONDAY AND HELP SHARPEN THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY MARGINAL BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE MID STATE SO WILL GO WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A
REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS A
LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST REMAINS DRY TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
CLOSE OFF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH...WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING UP/OFF THE EAST COAST
LATE NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW OVER TN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY. ECMWF AND GFS FORM A
WEAK CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST BY FRIDAY BUT THAT
SYSTEM SHOULD BE TOO FAR AWAY TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KOHX 190503
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1203 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...

FOR 06Z TAF.

&&

.AVIATION...

CIGS BOUNCING VFR/MVFR CSV VCNTY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
CLOUDS PRETTY FAR UPSTREAM OF THE PLATEAU AND THIS TREND LIKELY
TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12-14Z OR SO. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES AFTER
15Z...WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10KNTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

UPDATE...

FOR 00Z TAFS

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THREE TERMINALS. THE ONLY
FORECAST ISSUE THIS EVENING IS CLOUDS DUE TO A SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE CLOUDS ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN AND WILL MOVE OUT BY 06Z. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL MAKE FOR VFR FLYING CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

REAGAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD AIR HAS SWEPT INTO THE MID STATE WITH MOST AREAS 15 TO 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUDS ALSO DEVELOPED/MOVED INTO
FROM THE NW AND OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THICKEST CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS AT 20Z.

STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS PLUNGING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN
U.S. TROUGH...MOVING ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVE. SKIES WILL CLEAR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE CHILLY TONIGHT...BUT SUNDAY/S MAX TEMPS
WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE SUNSHINE.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE
OH/TN VALLEYS LATE MONDAY AND HELP SHARPEN THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY MARGINAL BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE MID STATE SO WILL GO WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A
REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS A
LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST REMAINS DRY TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
CLOSE OFF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH...WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING UP/OFF THE EAST COAST
LATE NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW OVER TN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY. ECMWF AND GFS FORM A
WEAK CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST BY FRIDAY BUT THAT
SYSTEM SHOULD BE TOO FAR AWAY TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07






000
FXUS64 KMEG 190500
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1200 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING. THIS IS RESULTING
IN RAIN FREE WEATHER ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 8 PM CDT IN THE 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS. FORECAST
OVERALL REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CWA MONDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH
THIS FRONT THUS HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THAT
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE MIDSOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND WILL TRACK
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE MIDSOUTH
WILL STAY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 5KT TOMORROW FROM THE
EAST...SHIFTING SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 190500
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1200 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING. THIS IS RESULTING
IN RAIN FREE WEATHER ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 8 PM CDT IN THE 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS. FORECAST
OVERALL REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CWA MONDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH
THIS FRONT THUS HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THAT
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE MIDSOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND WILL TRACK
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE MIDSOUTH
WILL STAY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 5KT TOMORROW FROM THE
EAST...SHIFTING SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 190217
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
917 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING. THIS IS RESULTING
IN RAIN FREE WEATHER ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 8 PM CDT IN THE 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS. FORECAST
OVERALL REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CWA MONDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH
THIS FRONT THUS HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THAT
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE MIDSOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND WILL TRACK
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE MIDSOUTH
WILL STAY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING LIGHT AFTER 19/00Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT A BIT MORE EASTERLY
TOMORROW...AROUND 5KT.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 190217
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
917 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING. THIS IS RESULTING
IN RAIN FREE WEATHER ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 8 PM CDT IN THE 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS. FORECAST
OVERALL REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CWA MONDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH
THIS FRONT THUS HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THAT
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE MIDSOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND WILL TRACK
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE MIDSOUTH
WILL STAY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING LIGHT AFTER 19/00Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT A BIT MORE EASTERLY
TOMORROW...AROUND 5KT.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMRX 190120
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
920 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR EDITS WERE TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE EARLY TONIGHT PERIOD...AS WELL AS
LOWER TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TONIGHT. WITH THE FRONT
STILL SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA...TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN NE TN AND
SW VA. CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD CLEAR BY MORNING AND SUNNY AND DRY
DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             44  65  44  72 /  10   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  42  63  43  68 /  10   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       41  64  41  68 /  10   0   0  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              41  60  35  67 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 190120
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
920 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR EDITS WERE TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE EARLY TONIGHT PERIOD...AS WELL AS
LOWER TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TONIGHT. WITH THE FRONT
STILL SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA...TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN NE TN AND
SW VA. CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD CLEAR BY MORNING AND SUNNY AND DRY
DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             44  65  44  72 /  10   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  42  63  43  68 /  10   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       41  64  41  68 /  10   0   0  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              41  60  35  67 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW



000
FXUS64 KOHX 182347
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
647 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...

FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THREE TERMINALS. THE ONLY
FORECAST ISSUE THIS EVENING IS CLOUDS DUE TO A SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE CLOUDS ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN AND WILL MOVE OUT BY 06Z. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL MAKE FOR VFR FLYING CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

REAGAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD AIR HAS SWEPT INTO THE MID STATE WITH MOST AREAS 15 TO 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUDS ALSO DEVELOPED/MOVED INTO
FROM THE NW AND OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THICKEST CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS AT 20Z.

STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS PLUNGING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN
U.S. TROUGH...MOVING ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVE. SKIES WILL CLEAR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE CHILLY TONIGHT...BUT SUNDAY/S MAX TEMPS
WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE SUNSHINE.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE
OH/TN VALLEYS LATE MONDAY AND HELP SHARPEN THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY MARGINAL BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE MID STATE SO WILL GO WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A
REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS A
LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST REMAINS DRY TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
CLOSE OFF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH...WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING UP/OFF THE EAST COAST
LATE NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW OVER TN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY. ECMWF AND GFS FORM A
WEAK CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST BY FRIDAY BUT THAT
SYSTEM SHOULD BE TOO FAR AWAY TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

10





000
FXUS64 KOHX 182347
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
647 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...

FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THREE TERMINALS. THE ONLY
FORECAST ISSUE THIS EVENING IS CLOUDS DUE TO A SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE CLOUDS ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN AND WILL MOVE OUT BY 06Z. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL MAKE FOR VFR FLYING CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

REAGAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD AIR HAS SWEPT INTO THE MID STATE WITH MOST AREAS 15 TO 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUDS ALSO DEVELOPED/MOVED INTO
FROM THE NW AND OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THICKEST CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS AT 20Z.

STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS PLUNGING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN
U.S. TROUGH...MOVING ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVE. SKIES WILL CLEAR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE CHILLY TONIGHT...BUT SUNDAY/S MAX TEMPS
WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE SUNSHINE.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE
OH/TN VALLEYS LATE MONDAY AND HELP SHARPEN THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY MARGINAL BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE MID STATE SO WILL GO WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A
REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS A
LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST REMAINS DRY TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
CLOSE OFF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH...WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING UP/OFF THE EAST COAST
LATE NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW OVER TN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY. ECMWF AND GFS FORM A
WEAK CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST BY FRIDAY BUT THAT
SYSTEM SHOULD BE TOO FAR AWAY TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

10





000
FXUS64 KOHX 182347
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
647 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...

FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THREE TERMINALS. THE ONLY
FORECAST ISSUE THIS EVENING IS CLOUDS DUE TO A SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE CLOUDS ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN AND WILL MOVE OUT BY 06Z. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL MAKE FOR VFR FLYING CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

REAGAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD AIR HAS SWEPT INTO THE MID STATE WITH MOST AREAS 15 TO 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUDS ALSO DEVELOPED/MOVED INTO
FROM THE NW AND OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THICKEST CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS AT 20Z.

STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS PLUNGING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN
U.S. TROUGH...MOVING ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVE. SKIES WILL CLEAR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE CHILLY TONIGHT...BUT SUNDAY/S MAX TEMPS
WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE SUNSHINE.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE
OH/TN VALLEYS LATE MONDAY AND HELP SHARPEN THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY MARGINAL BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE MID STATE SO WILL GO WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A
REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS A
LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST REMAINS DRY TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
CLOSE OFF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH...WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING UP/OFF THE EAST COAST
LATE NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW OVER TN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY. ECMWF AND GFS FORM A
WEAK CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST BY FRIDAY BUT THAT
SYSTEM SHOULD BE TOO FAR AWAY TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

10





000
FXUS64 KOHX 182347
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
647 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...

FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THREE TERMINALS. THE ONLY
FORECAST ISSUE THIS EVENING IS CLOUDS DUE TO A SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE CLOUDS ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN AND WILL MOVE OUT BY 06Z. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL MAKE FOR VFR FLYING CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

REAGAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD AIR HAS SWEPT INTO THE MID STATE WITH MOST AREAS 15 TO 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUDS ALSO DEVELOPED/MOVED INTO
FROM THE NW AND OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THICKEST CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS AT 20Z.

STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS PLUNGING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN
U.S. TROUGH...MOVING ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVE. SKIES WILL CLEAR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE CHILLY TONIGHT...BUT SUNDAY/S MAX TEMPS
WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE SUNSHINE.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE
OH/TN VALLEYS LATE MONDAY AND HELP SHARPEN THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY MARGINAL BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE MID STATE SO WILL GO WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A
REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS A
LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST REMAINS DRY TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
CLOSE OFF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH...WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING UP/OFF THE EAST COAST
LATE NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW OVER TN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY. ECMWF AND GFS FORM A
WEAK CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST BY FRIDAY BUT THAT
SYSTEM SHOULD BE TOO FAR AWAY TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

10





000
FXUS64 KMEG 182317
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
617 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CWA MONDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH
THIS FRONT THUS HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THAT
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE MIDSOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND WILL TRACK
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE MIDSOUTH
WILL STAY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING LIGHT AFTER 19/00Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT A BIT MORE EASTERLY
TOMORROW...AROUND 5KT.


&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 182317
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
617 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CWA MONDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH
THIS FRONT THUS HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THAT
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE MIDSOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND WILL TRACK
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE MIDSOUTH
WILL STAY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING LIGHT AFTER 19/00Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT A BIT MORE EASTERLY
TOMORROW...AROUND 5KT.


&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMRX 182313
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
713 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CROSSING THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND IS
BRINGING BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES. CLOUD ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT TRI THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND MAY
APPROACH THE VFR/MVFR MARGINS. WILL KEEP THE TAF VFR FOR NOW AS
THAT SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. TYS AND CHA WILL STAY VFR FOR
CERTAIN...WITH CLOUDS BECOMING SCATTERED AT CHA BY MIDNIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES RETURN FOR ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS



000
FXUS64 KMRX 182313
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
713 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CROSSING THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND IS
BRINGING BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES. CLOUD ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT TRI THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND MAY
APPROACH THE VFR/MVFR MARGINS. WILL KEEP THE TAF VFR FOR NOW AS
THAT SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. TYS AND CHA WILL STAY VFR FOR
CERTAIN...WITH CLOUDS BECOMING SCATTERED AT CHA BY MIDNIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES RETURN FOR ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS



000
FXUS64 KMRX 182313
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
713 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CROSSING THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND IS
BRINGING BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES. CLOUD ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT TRI THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND MAY
APPROACH THE VFR/MVFR MARGINS. WILL KEEP THE TAF VFR FOR NOW AS
THAT SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. TYS AND CHA WILL STAY VFR FOR
CERTAIN...WITH CLOUDS BECOMING SCATTERED AT CHA BY MIDNIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES RETURN FOR ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS



000
FXUS64 KMRX 182313
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
713 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CROSSING THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND IS
BRINGING BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES. CLOUD ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT TRI THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND MAY
APPROACH THE VFR/MVFR MARGINS. WILL KEEP THE TAF VFR FOR NOW AS
THAT SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. TYS AND CHA WILL STAY VFR FOR
CERTAIN...WITH CLOUDS BECOMING SCATTERED AT CHA BY MIDNIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES RETURN FOR ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS



000
FXUS64 KOHX 182030
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
330 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD AIR HAS SWEPT INTO THE MID STATE WITH MOST AREAS 15 TO 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUDS ALSO DEVELOPED/MOVED INTO
FROM THE NW AND OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THICKEST CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS AT 20Z.

STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS PLUNGING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN
U.S. TROUGH...MOVING ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVE. SKIES WILL CLEAR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE CHILLY TONIGHT...BUT SUNDAY/S MAX TEMPS
WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE SUNSHINE.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE
OH/TN VALLEYS LATE MONDAY AND HELP SHARPEN THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY MARGINAL BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE MID STATE SO WILL GO WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A
REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS A
LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST REMAINS DRY TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
CLOSE OFF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH...WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING UP/OFF THE EAST COAST
LATE NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW OVER TN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY. ECMWF AND GFS FORM A
WEAK CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST BY FRIDAY BUT THAT
SYSTEM SHOULD BE TOO FAR AWAY TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      43  65  45  70 /  05   0   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    40  64  44  68 /  05   0   0  05
CROSSVILLE     40  63  43  66 /  05   0   0  20
COLUMBIA       41  64  42  70 /  05   0   0  05
LAWRENCEBURG   42  66  44  70 /   0   0   0  05
WAVERLY        42  65  45  70 /  05   0   0  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

49





000
FXUS64 KOHX 182030
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
330 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD AIR HAS SWEPT INTO THE MID STATE WITH MOST AREAS 15 TO 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUDS ALSO DEVELOPED/MOVED INTO
FROM THE NW AND OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THICKEST CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS AT 20Z.

STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS PLUNGING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN
U.S. TROUGH...MOVING ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVE. SKIES WILL CLEAR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE CHILLY TONIGHT...BUT SUNDAY/S MAX TEMPS
WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE SUNSHINE.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE
OH/TN VALLEYS LATE MONDAY AND HELP SHARPEN THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY MARGINAL BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE MID STATE SO WILL GO WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A
REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS A
LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST REMAINS DRY TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
CLOSE OFF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH...WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING UP/OFF THE EAST COAST
LATE NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW OVER TN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY. ECMWF AND GFS FORM A
WEAK CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST BY FRIDAY BUT THAT
SYSTEM SHOULD BE TOO FAR AWAY TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      43  65  45  70 /  05   0   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    40  64  44  68 /  05   0   0  05
CROSSVILLE     40  63  43  66 /  05   0   0  20
COLUMBIA       41  64  42  70 /  05   0   0  05
LAWRENCEBURG   42  66  44  70 /   0   0   0  05
WAVERLY        42  65  45  70 /  05   0   0  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

49





000
FXUS64 KOHX 182030
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
330 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD AIR HAS SWEPT INTO THE MID STATE WITH MOST AREAS 15 TO 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUDS ALSO DEVELOPED/MOVED INTO
FROM THE NW AND OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THICKEST CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS AT 20Z.

STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS PLUNGING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN
U.S. TROUGH...MOVING ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVE. SKIES WILL CLEAR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE CHILLY TONIGHT...BUT SUNDAY/S MAX TEMPS
WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE SUNSHINE.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE
OH/TN VALLEYS LATE MONDAY AND HELP SHARPEN THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY MARGINAL BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE MID STATE SO WILL GO WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A
REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS A
LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST REMAINS DRY TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
CLOSE OFF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH...WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING UP/OFF THE EAST COAST
LATE NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW OVER TN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY. ECMWF AND GFS FORM A
WEAK CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST BY FRIDAY BUT THAT
SYSTEM SHOULD BE TOO FAR AWAY TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      43  65  45  70 /  05   0   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    40  64  44  68 /  05   0   0  05
CROSSVILLE     40  63  43  66 /  05   0   0  20
COLUMBIA       41  64  42  70 /  05   0   0  05
LAWRENCEBURG   42  66  44  70 /   0   0   0  05
WAVERLY        42  65  45  70 /  05   0   0  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

49





000
FXUS64 KOHX 182030
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
330 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD AIR HAS SWEPT INTO THE MID STATE WITH MOST AREAS 15 TO 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUDS ALSO DEVELOPED/MOVED INTO
FROM THE NW AND OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THICKEST CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS AT 20Z.

STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS PLUNGING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN
U.S. TROUGH...MOVING ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVE. SKIES WILL CLEAR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE CHILLY TONIGHT...BUT SUNDAY/S MAX TEMPS
WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE SUNSHINE.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE
OH/TN VALLEYS LATE MONDAY AND HELP SHARPEN THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY MARGINAL BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE MID STATE SO WILL GO WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A
REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS A
LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST REMAINS DRY TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
CLOSE OFF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH...WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING UP/OFF THE EAST COAST
LATE NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW OVER TN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY. ECMWF AND GFS FORM A
WEAK CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST BY FRIDAY BUT THAT
SYSTEM SHOULD BE TOO FAR AWAY TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      43  65  45  70 /  05   0   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    40  64  44  68 /  05   0   0  05
CROSSVILLE     40  63  43  66 /  05   0   0  20
COLUMBIA       41  64  42  70 /  05   0   0  05
LAWRENCEBURG   42  66  44  70 /   0   0   0  05
WAVERLY        42  65  45  70 /  05   0   0  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

49





000
FXUS64 KMEG 181950
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
250 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CWA MONDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH
THIS FRONT THUS HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THAT
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE MIDSOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND WILL TRACK
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE MIDSOUTH
WILL STAY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS AT 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
LIGHT AFTER 19/00Z.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 181950
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
250 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CWA MONDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH
THIS FRONT THUS HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THAT
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE MIDSOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND WILL TRACK
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE MIDSOUTH
WILL STAY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS AT 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
LIGHT AFTER 19/00Z.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 181950
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
250 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CWA MONDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH
THIS FRONT THUS HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THAT
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE MIDSOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND WILL TRACK
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE MIDSOUTH
WILL STAY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS AT 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
LIGHT AFTER 19/00Z.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 181950
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
250 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CWA MONDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH
THIS FRONT THUS HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THAT
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE MIDSOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND WILL TRACK
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE MIDSOUTH
WILL STAY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS AT 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
LIGHT AFTER 19/00Z.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 181950
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
250 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CWA MONDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH
THIS FRONT THUS HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THAT
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE MIDSOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND WILL TRACK
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE MIDSOUTH
WILL STAY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS AT 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
LIGHT AFTER 19/00Z.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 181950
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
250 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CWA MONDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH
THIS FRONT THUS HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THAT
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE MIDSOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND WILL TRACK
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE MIDSOUTH
WILL STAY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS AT 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
LIGHT AFTER 19/00Z.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMRX 181846
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
246 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA BUT ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT LOOK TO TO BE PRESENT TO GENERATE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NETN...SWVA...AND THE SMOKIES AS THIS
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH...WITH MOST
AREAS ONLY SEEING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH UP TO ONE TENTH OF
INCH. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY WITH CLEARING
SKIES LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL POSSIBLY ALLOW FOR SOME FOG OVERNIGHT
IN AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE RAIN...IF THE WINDS CAN SETTLE DOWN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COLDER COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT...ROUGHLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER BUILDS INTO THE AREA TOMORROW WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AREA WIDE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER...AGAIN...DUE TO THE COLD AIR
RE- ENFORCEMENT THAT WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE 5
TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERALL...A NICE FALL DAY EXPECTED
TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THERE IS ONLY SO
MANY WAYS TO SAY IT...BUT REPETITIVE TROFFING ALOFT OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BE THE DRIVER OF THE WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF TO THIRD OF THE AREA.
EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCES TO OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER
AND NEAR SW VA AND THE FAR NE TN MOUNTAINS. IN COMPARISON...THE
CHATTANOOGA VICINITY IS EXPECTED TO STAY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...
TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE MOISTURE BAND TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH. AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC
LATE NEXT WEEK...RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER OUR REGION...WITH A
CONSEQUENT WARM-UP EXPECTED FOR FRI-SAT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             44  66  44  72 /  10   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  43  64  43  68 /  10   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       42  65  41  68 /  10   0   0  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              42  61  35  67 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR/GC



000
FXUS64 KMRX 181846
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
246 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA BUT ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT LOOK TO TO BE PRESENT TO GENERATE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NETN...SWVA...AND THE SMOKIES AS THIS
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH...WITH MOST
AREAS ONLY SEEING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH UP TO ONE TENTH OF
INCH. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY WITH CLEARING
SKIES LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL POSSIBLY ALLOW FOR SOME FOG OVERNIGHT
IN AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE RAIN...IF THE WINDS CAN SETTLE DOWN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COLDER COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT...ROUGHLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER BUILDS INTO THE AREA TOMORROW WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AREA WIDE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER...AGAIN...DUE TO THE COLD AIR
RE- ENFORCEMENT THAT WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE 5
TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERALL...A NICE FALL DAY EXPECTED
TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THERE IS ONLY SO
MANY WAYS TO SAY IT...BUT REPETITIVE TROFFING ALOFT OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BE THE DRIVER OF THE WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF TO THIRD OF THE AREA.
EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCES TO OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER
AND NEAR SW VA AND THE FAR NE TN MOUNTAINS. IN COMPARISON...THE
CHATTANOOGA VICINITY IS EXPECTED TO STAY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...
TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE MOISTURE BAND TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH. AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC
LATE NEXT WEEK...RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER OUR REGION...WITH A
CONSEQUENT WARM-UP EXPECTED FOR FRI-SAT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             44  66  44  72 /  10   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  43  64  43  68 /  10   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       42  65  41  68 /  10   0   0  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              42  61  35  67 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR/GC




000
FXUS64 KOHX 181814
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
114 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING FROM THE NORTH AND EAST THIS MORNING.
STILL VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT CSV.
EXPECT CIGS TO HANG AROUND BKN030 TO BKN040 UNTIL AROUND 00Z
TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT. DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE IN TONIGHT
AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE LIGHT FOG
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT CKV AND CSV IF WINDS REMAIN CALM
ENOUGH...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT THIS
TIME TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT AT ALL SITES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11





000
FXUS64 KOHX 181814
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
114 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING FROM THE NORTH AND EAST THIS MORNING.
STILL VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT CSV.
EXPECT CIGS TO HANG AROUND BKN030 TO BKN040 UNTIL AROUND 00Z
TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT. DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE IN TONIGHT
AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE LIGHT FOG
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT CKV AND CSV IF WINDS REMAIN CALM
ENOUGH...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT THIS
TIME TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT AT ALL SITES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11






000
FXUS64 KMRX 181720
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
120 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...THICKER CLOUD COVER PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. CHA WILL HAVE THE BEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WITH VFR EXPECTED. TYS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A
BKN AND SCT 3 TO 4K FOOT DECK THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO A
BKN CIG LATER THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED THOUGH.
TRI SHOULD STAY SOCKED IN THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. SOME MODELS
HINTING AT CLEARING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WHILE OTHERS KEEP BKN
CIGS. WILL LEAN TOWARD CLEARING AT THIS TIME AND WILL THEREFORE PUT
MVFR FOG IN.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR



000
FXUS64 KMRX 181720
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
120 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...THICKER CLOUD COVER PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. CHA WILL HAVE THE BEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WITH VFR EXPECTED. TYS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A
BKN AND SCT 3 TO 4K FOOT DECK THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO A
BKN CIG LATER THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED THOUGH.
TRI SHOULD STAY SOCKED IN THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. SOME MODELS
HINTING AT CLEARING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WHILE OTHERS KEEP BKN
CIGS. WILL LEAN TOWARD CLEARING AT THIS TIME AND WILL THEREFORE PUT
MVFR FOG IN.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMEG 181613
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1113 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

UPDATE...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY.
AS A RESULT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD...NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MID SOUTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS AT 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
LIGHT AFTER 19/00Z.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 181613
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1113 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

UPDATE...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY.
AS A RESULT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD...NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MID SOUTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS AT 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
LIGHT AFTER 19/00Z.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMRX 181610
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1210 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA.
UPDATING NETN AND SWVA FROM PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE CLOUD COVER WILL HANG AROUND. ALSO
TOOK THE NORTHERN PLATEAU FROM MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY. NEW
ZONES OUT SOON TO REFLECT CHANGES MADE. MAX TEMPS STILL LOOK
REASONABLE SO LEFT THOSE ALONE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  44  67  44 /  10  10   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  43  65  42 /  10  10   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       67  42  65  40 /  10  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              64  42  61  34 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR



000
FXUS64 KMRX 181610
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1210 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA.
UPDATING NETN AND SWVA FROM PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE CLOUD COVER WILL HANG AROUND. ALSO
TOOK THE NORTHERN PLATEAU FROM MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY. NEW
ZONES OUT SOON TO REFLECT CHANGES MADE. MAX TEMPS STILL LOOK
REASONABLE SO LEFT THOSE ALONE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  44  67  44 /  10  10   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  43  65  42 /  10  10   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       67  42  65  40 /  10  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              64  42  61  34 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 181610
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1210 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA.
UPDATING NETN AND SWVA FROM PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE CLOUD COVER WILL HANG AROUND. ALSO
TOOK THE NORTHERN PLATEAU FROM MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY. NEW
ZONES OUT SOON TO REFLECT CHANGES MADE. MAX TEMPS STILL LOOK
REASONABLE SO LEFT THOSE ALONE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  44  67  44 /  10  10   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  43  65  42 /  10  10   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       67  42  65  40 /  10  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              64  42  61  34 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 181610
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1210 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA.
UPDATING NETN AND SWVA FROM PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE CLOUD COVER WILL HANG AROUND. ALSO
TOOK THE NORTHERN PLATEAU FROM MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY. NEW
ZONES OUT SOON TO REFLECT CHANGES MADE. MAX TEMPS STILL LOOK
REASONABLE SO LEFT THOSE ALONE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  44  67  44 /  10  10   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  43  65  42 /  10  10   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       67  42  65  40 /  10  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              64  42  61  34 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR



000
FXUS64 KMEG 181555
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1055 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY.
AS A RESULT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD...NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MID SOUTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH


&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (18/12Z-19/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. WINDS TODAY NORTHERLY 10 KTS...WINDS
AFTER 19/00Z NE 3-5 KTS.

JCL

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 181555
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1055 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY.
AS A RESULT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD...NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MID SOUTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH


&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (18/12Z-19/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. WINDS TODAY NORTHERLY 10 KTS...WINDS
AFTER 19/00Z NE 3-5 KTS.

JCL

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 181555
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1055 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY.
AS A RESULT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD...NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MID SOUTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH


&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (18/12Z-19/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. WINDS TODAY NORTHERLY 10 KTS...WINDS
AFTER 19/00Z NE 3-5 KTS.

JCL

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 181555
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1055 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY.
AS A RESULT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD...NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MID SOUTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH


&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (18/12Z-19/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. WINDS TODAY NORTHERLY 10 KTS...WINDS
AFTER 19/00Z NE 3-5 KTS.

JCL

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 181555
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1055 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY.
AS A RESULT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD...NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MID SOUTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH


&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (18/12Z-19/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. WINDS TODAY NORTHERLY 10 KTS...WINDS
AFTER 19/00Z NE 3-5 KTS.

JCL

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 181555
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1055 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY.
AS A RESULT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD...NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MID SOUTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH


&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (18/12Z-19/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. WINDS TODAY NORTHERLY 10 KTS...WINDS
AFTER 19/00Z NE 3-5 KTS.

JCL

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 181548
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1048 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST NEEDED THIS MORNING. TEMPS APPEAR TO BE
ON TRACK...WITH AREAS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH SEEING WARMING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAIL SOME LOW TO MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY KEEPING THOSE AREAS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER. ADJUSTED HOURLY CLOUD COVER FROM PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING TO MATCH MOST
RECENT VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OTHER THAN A MID-LEVEL VFR DECK MOVING IN THIS LATER THIS MORNING
AND CLEARING OUT FOR THE EVENING...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR OUR MID-STATE TERMINALS OVER THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY.

UNGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 133 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE FRONT HAS FINALLY CLEARED THE MID STATE
ALTHOUGH COOLER AIR IS LAGGING BEHIND SEVERAL HOURS.
NOTWITHSTANDING, HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL END UP SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY`S. WE CAN EXPECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS TODAY AS
A BAND OF POST-FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS FILTERS THROUGH THE MID
STATE. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR PLEASANT FALL-LIKE WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES MONDAY EVENING WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT, BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY
THEREAFTER, WITH DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL
GENERALLY RUN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11






000
FXUS64 KOHX 181548
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1048 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST NEEDED THIS MORNING. TEMPS APPEAR TO BE
ON TRACK...WITH AREAS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH SEEING WARMING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAIL SOME LOW TO MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY KEEPING THOSE AREAS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER. ADJUSTED HOURLY CLOUD COVER FROM PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING TO MATCH MOST
RECENT VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OTHER THAN A MID-LEVEL VFR DECK MOVING IN THIS LATER THIS MORNING
AND CLEARING OUT FOR THE EVENING...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR OUR MID-STATE TERMINALS OVER THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY.

UNGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 133 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE FRONT HAS FINALLY CLEARED THE MID STATE
ALTHOUGH COOLER AIR IS LAGGING BEHIND SEVERAL HOURS.
NOTWITHSTANDING, HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL END UP SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY`S. WE CAN EXPECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS TODAY AS
A BAND OF POST-FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS FILTERS THROUGH THE MID
STATE. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR PLEASANT FALL-LIKE WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES MONDAY EVENING WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT, BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY
THEREAFTER, WITH DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL
GENERALLY RUN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11





000
FXUS64 KOHX 181548
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1048 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST NEEDED THIS MORNING. TEMPS APPEAR TO BE
ON TRACK...WITH AREAS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH SEEING WARMING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAIL SOME LOW TO MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY KEEPING THOSE AREAS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER. ADJUSTED HOURLY CLOUD COVER FROM PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING TO MATCH MOST
RECENT VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OTHER THAN A MID-LEVEL VFR DECK MOVING IN THIS LATER THIS MORNING
AND CLEARING OUT FOR THE EVENING...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR OUR MID-STATE TERMINALS OVER THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY.

UNGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 133 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE FRONT HAS FINALLY CLEARED THE MID STATE
ALTHOUGH COOLER AIR IS LAGGING BEHIND SEVERAL HOURS.
NOTWITHSTANDING, HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL END UP SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY`S. WE CAN EXPECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS TODAY AS
A BAND OF POST-FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS FILTERS THROUGH THE MID
STATE. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR PLEASANT FALL-LIKE WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES MONDAY EVENING WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT, BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY
THEREAFTER, WITH DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL
GENERALLY RUN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11





000
FXUS64 KOHX 181548
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1048 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST NEEDED THIS MORNING. TEMPS APPEAR TO BE
ON TRACK...WITH AREAS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH SEEING WARMING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAIL SOME LOW TO MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY KEEPING THOSE AREAS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER. ADJUSTED HOURLY CLOUD COVER FROM PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING TO MATCH MOST
RECENT VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OTHER THAN A MID-LEVEL VFR DECK MOVING IN THIS LATER THIS MORNING
AND CLEARING OUT FOR THE EVENING...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR OUR MID-STATE TERMINALS OVER THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY.

UNGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 133 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE FRONT HAS FINALLY CLEARED THE MID STATE
ALTHOUGH COOLER AIR IS LAGGING BEHIND SEVERAL HOURS.
NOTWITHSTANDING, HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL END UP SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY`S. WE CAN EXPECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS TODAY AS
A BAND OF POST-FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS FILTERS THROUGH THE MID
STATE. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR PLEASANT FALL-LIKE WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES MONDAY EVENING WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT, BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY
THEREAFTER, WITH DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL
GENERALLY RUN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11






000
FXUS64 KMRX 181349
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
949 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...EVERYTHING MOSTLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING. EARLY
MORNING COLD FRONT HAS PASSED TO OUR SE BRINING IN DRIER AIR WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS AROUND 3
TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. DID DECIDE TO LOWER TEMPS BY A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS SWVA BUT OTHER THAN THAT NO CHANGES. TWEAKED HOURLY
TEMPS TO MATCH LATEST OBS. NO UPDATE PLANNED TO ZONES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  44  67  44 /  10  10   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  43  65  42 /  10  10   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       67  42  65  40 /  10  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              64  42  61  34 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR



000
FXUS64 KMRX 181349
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
949 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...EVERYTHING MOSTLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING. EARLY
MORNING COLD FRONT HAS PASSED TO OUR SE BRINING IN DRIER AIR WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS AROUND 3
TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. DID DECIDE TO LOWER TEMPS BY A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS SWVA BUT OTHER THAN THAT NO CHANGES. TWEAKED HOURLY
TEMPS TO MATCH LATEST OBS. NO UPDATE PLANNED TO ZONES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  44  67  44 /  10  10   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  43  65  42 /  10  10   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       67  42  65  40 /  10  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              64  42  61  34 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 181134
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
734 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS THROUGH...WITH ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING SHOT
DUE IN TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...AIR MASS WILL NOT DRY OUT VERY
QUICKLY AND KTRI WILL LIKELY HAVE A CIG AT TIMES THIS MORNING...AND
AGAIN THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
ALSO...SOME SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KTRI AS WELL THIS EVENING. BUT
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS SUPPORTING ALL THIS WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ALLOW SOME
FOG THERE. FOR KTYS AND KCHA...THEY WILL BE SOUTH OF MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH KTYS HAVING A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING A CIG THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

GM



000
FXUS64 KMRX 181134
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
734 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS THROUGH...WITH ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING SHOT
DUE IN TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...AIR MASS WILL NOT DRY OUT VERY
QUICKLY AND KTRI WILL LIKELY HAVE A CIG AT TIMES THIS MORNING...AND
AGAIN THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
ALSO...SOME SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KTRI AS WELL THIS EVENING. BUT
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS SUPPORTING ALL THIS WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ALLOW SOME
FOG THERE. FOR KTYS AND KCHA...THEY WILL BE SOUTH OF MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH KTYS HAVING A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING A CIG THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

GM



000
FXUS64 KMRX 181134
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
734 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS THROUGH...WITH ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING SHOT
DUE IN TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...AIR MASS WILL NOT DRY OUT VERY
QUICKLY AND KTRI WILL LIKELY HAVE A CIG AT TIMES THIS MORNING...AND
AGAIN THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
ALSO...SOME SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KTRI AS WELL THIS EVENING. BUT
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS SUPPORTING ALL THIS WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ALLOW SOME
FOG THERE. FOR KTYS AND KCHA...THEY WILL BE SOUTH OF MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH KTYS HAVING A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING A CIG THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

GM



000
FXUS64 KMRX 181134
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
734 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS THROUGH...WITH ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING SHOT
DUE IN TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...AIR MASS WILL NOT DRY OUT VERY
QUICKLY AND KTRI WILL LIKELY HAVE A CIG AT TIMES THIS MORNING...AND
AGAIN THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
ALSO...SOME SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KTRI AS WELL THIS EVENING. BUT
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS SUPPORTING ALL THIS WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ALLOW SOME
FOG THERE. FOR KTYS AND KCHA...THEY WILL BE SOUTH OF MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH KTYS HAVING A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING A CIG THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

GM



000
FXUS64 KMRX 181134
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
734 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS THROUGH...WITH ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING SHOT
DUE IN TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...AIR MASS WILL NOT DRY OUT VERY
QUICKLY AND KTRI WILL LIKELY HAVE A CIG AT TIMES THIS MORNING...AND
AGAIN THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
ALSO...SOME SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KTRI AS WELL THIS EVENING. BUT
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS SUPPORTING ALL THIS WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ALLOW SOME
FOG THERE. FOR KTYS AND KCHA...THEY WILL BE SOUTH OF MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH KTYS HAVING A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING A CIG THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

GM



000
FXUS64 KMRX 181134
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
734 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS THROUGH...WITH ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING SHOT
DUE IN TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...AIR MASS WILL NOT DRY OUT VERY
QUICKLY AND KTRI WILL LIKELY HAVE A CIG AT TIMES THIS MORNING...AND
AGAIN THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
ALSO...SOME SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KTRI AS WELL THIS EVENING. BUT
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS SUPPORTING ALL THIS WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ALLOW SOME
FOG THERE. FOR KTYS AND KCHA...THEY WILL BE SOUTH OF MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH KTYS HAVING A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING A CIG THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

GM




000
FXUS64 KOHX 181120
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
620 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OTHER THAN A MID-LEVEL VFR DECK MOVING IN THIS LATER THIS MORNING
AND CLEARING OUT FOR THE EVENING...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR OUR MID-STATE TERMINALS OVER THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 133 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE FRONT HAS FINALLY CLEARED THE MID STATE
ALTHOUGH COOLER AIR IS LAGGING BEHIND SEVERAL HOURS.
NOTWITHSTANDING, HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL END UP SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY`S. WE CAN EXPECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS TODAY AS
A BAND OF POST-FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS FILTERS THROUGH THE MID
STATE. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR PLEASANT FALL-LIKE WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES MONDAY EVENING WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT, BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY
THEREAFTER, WITH DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL
GENERALLY RUN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KOHX 181120
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
620 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OTHER THAN A MID-LEVEL VFR DECK MOVING IN THIS LATER THIS MORNING
AND CLEARING OUT FOR THE EVENING...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR OUR MID-STATE TERMINALS OVER THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 133 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE FRONT HAS FINALLY CLEARED THE MID STATE
ALTHOUGH COOLER AIR IS LAGGING BEHIND SEVERAL HOURS.
NOTWITHSTANDING, HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL END UP SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY`S. WE CAN EXPECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS TODAY AS
A BAND OF POST-FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS FILTERS THROUGH THE MID
STATE. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR PLEASANT FALL-LIKE WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES MONDAY EVENING WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT, BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY
THEREAFTER, WITH DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL
GENERALLY RUN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KOHX 181120
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
620 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OTHER THAN A MID-LEVEL VFR DECK MOVING IN THIS LATER THIS MORNING
AND CLEARING OUT FOR THE EVENING...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR OUR MID-STATE TERMINALS OVER THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 133 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE FRONT HAS FINALLY CLEARED THE MID STATE
ALTHOUGH COOLER AIR IS LAGGING BEHIND SEVERAL HOURS.
NOTWITHSTANDING, HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL END UP SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY`S. WE CAN EXPECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS TODAY AS
A BAND OF POST-FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS FILTERS THROUGH THE MID
STATE. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR PLEASANT FALL-LIKE WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES MONDAY EVENING WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT, BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY
THEREAFTER, WITH DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL
GENERALLY RUN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KOHX 181120
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
620 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OTHER THAN A MID-LEVEL VFR DECK MOVING IN THIS LATER THIS MORNING
AND CLEARING OUT FOR THE EVENING...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR OUR MID-STATE TERMINALS OVER THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 133 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE FRONT HAS FINALLY CLEARED THE MID STATE
ALTHOUGH COOLER AIR IS LAGGING BEHIND SEVERAL HOURS.
NOTWITHSTANDING, HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL END UP SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY`S. WE CAN EXPECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS TODAY AS
A BAND OF POST-FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS FILTERS THROUGH THE MID
STATE. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR PLEASANT FALL-LIKE WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES MONDAY EVENING WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT, BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY
THEREAFTER, WITH DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL
GENERALLY RUN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KMEG 181106 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
606 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MID SOUTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (18/12Z-19/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. WINDS TODAY NORTHERLY 10 KTS...WINDS
AFTER 19/00Z NE 3-5 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 181106 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
606 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MID SOUTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (18/12Z-19/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. WINDS TODAY NORTHERLY 10 KTS...WINDS
AFTER 19/00Z NE 3-5 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 181106 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
606 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MID SOUTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (18/12Z-19/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. WINDS TODAY NORTHERLY 10 KTS...WINDS
AFTER 19/00Z NE 3-5 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 181106 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
606 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MID SOUTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (18/12Z-19/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. WINDS TODAY NORTHERLY 10 KTS...WINDS
AFTER 19/00Z NE 3-5 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 180908
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
408 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MID SOUTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 8-10KT TOMORROW FROM THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST THEN DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 180908
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
408 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MID SOUTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 8-10KT TOMORROW FROM THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST THEN DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 180908
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
408 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MID SOUTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 8-10KT TOMORROW FROM THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST THEN DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 180908
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
408 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MID SOUTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 8-10KT TOMORROW FROM THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST THEN DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 180830
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
430 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION NOW.  MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS STILL TO THE
WEST...AND NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO HAVE PRETTY SIGNIFICANT SPEEDMAX
AND UPPER COLD POOL THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.  THE COLD POOL INDUCES SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY OF 50-100 J/KG OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS.  THIS
SETUP WILL MAKE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT BETTER
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
ASSIST AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD SPEED THROUGH THE AREA...SO MOST
PRECIP WILL END BY 06Z...AND CERTAINLY BY 12Z.  WILL GO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE GUIDANCE ON MAX TEMPS MAINLY BECAUSE OF HOW MILD THE TEMPS ARE
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...NEEDED TO GET THE MAX TEMPS
TO HAVE MORE CUSHION ABOVE THESE CURRENT TEMPS.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER TROUGH TO CONTINUE OVER
EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND
SHORTWAVE. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 60S. SUNDAY NIGHT SKIES STAY CLEAR WITH FROST POSSIBLE
NORTHEAST. THE COLD TEMPERATURES DO NOT LAST AS CLOUDS INCREASE
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TROUGHING TO PERSIST OVER
THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

THE SYSTEM MONDAY SLOWS AND A WEAK UPPER LOW FORMS AND SPINS OVER
THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN
LATE MONDAY NE TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NE HALF MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. STACKED LOW FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE NE WITH SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM
AHEAD OF FRONT MONDAY THEN COOL SLIGHTLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
FRIDAY SLIGHTLY WARMER AGAIN AS NE TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  44  67  44 /  10  10   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  43  65  42 /  10  10   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       67  42  65  40 /  10  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              64  42  61  34 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

GM/TD



000
FXUS64 KMRX 180830
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
430 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION NOW.  MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS STILL TO THE
WEST...AND NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO HAVE PRETTY SIGNIFICANT SPEEDMAX
AND UPPER COLD POOL THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.  THE COLD POOL INDUCES SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY OF 50-100 J/KG OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS.  THIS
SETUP WILL MAKE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT BETTER
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
ASSIST AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD SPEED THROUGH THE AREA...SO MOST
PRECIP WILL END BY 06Z...AND CERTAINLY BY 12Z.  WILL GO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE GUIDANCE ON MAX TEMPS MAINLY BECAUSE OF HOW MILD THE TEMPS ARE
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...NEEDED TO GET THE MAX TEMPS
TO HAVE MORE CUSHION ABOVE THESE CURRENT TEMPS.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER TROUGH TO CONTINUE OVER
EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND
SHORTWAVE. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 60S. SUNDAY NIGHT SKIES STAY CLEAR WITH FROST POSSIBLE
NORTHEAST. THE COLD TEMPERATURES DO NOT LAST AS CLOUDS INCREASE
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TROUGHING TO PERSIST OVER
THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

THE SYSTEM MONDAY SLOWS AND A WEAK UPPER LOW FORMS AND SPINS OVER
THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN
LATE MONDAY NE TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NE HALF MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. STACKED LOW FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE NE WITH SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM
AHEAD OF FRONT MONDAY THEN COOL SLIGHTLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
FRIDAY SLIGHTLY WARMER AGAIN AS NE TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  44  67  44 /  10  10   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  43  65  42 /  10  10   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       67  42  65  40 /  10  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              64  42  61  34 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

GM/TD




000
FXUS64 KOHX 180633
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
133 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE FRONT HAS FINALLY CLEARED THE MID STATE
ALTHOUGH COOLER AIR IS LAGGING BEHIND SEVERAL HOURS.
NOTWITHSTANDING, HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL END UP SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY`S. WE CAN EXPECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS TODAY AS
A BAND OF POST-FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS FILTERS THROUGH THE MID
STATE. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR PLEASANT FALL-LIKE WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES MONDAY EVENING WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT, BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY
THEREAFTER, WITH DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL
GENERALLY RUN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      65  44  65  44 /   0  05   0  05
CLARKSVILLE    63  40  63  43 /   0  05   0  10
CROSSVILLE     59  39  60  41 /  05  05   0  05
COLUMBIA       67  44  66  44 /   0  05   0  05
LAWRENCEBURG   69  43  66  43 /   0   0   0  05
WAVERLY        65  42  64  43 /   0  05   0  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 180633
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
133 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE FRONT HAS FINALLY CLEARED THE MID STATE
ALTHOUGH COOLER AIR IS LAGGING BEHIND SEVERAL HOURS.
NOTWITHSTANDING, HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL END UP SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY`S. WE CAN EXPECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS TODAY AS
A BAND OF POST-FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS FILTERS THROUGH THE MID
STATE. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR PLEASANT FALL-LIKE WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES MONDAY EVENING WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT, BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY
THEREAFTER, WITH DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL
GENERALLY RUN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      65  44  65  44 /   0  05   0  05
CLARKSVILLE    63  40  63  43 /   0  05   0  10
CROSSVILLE     59  39  60  41 /  05  05   0  05
COLUMBIA       67  44  66  44 /   0  05   0  05
LAWRENCEBURG   69  43  66  43 /   0   0   0  05
WAVERLY        65  42  64  43 /   0  05   0  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




000
FXUS64 KMEG 180547 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1247 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 856 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BACK THROUGH WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND ALONG THE I-30
CORRIDOR IN ARKANSAS. AS OF 8 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH ARE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. FORECAST
OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS MOMENT.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 327 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL SPINNING JUST SOUTH OF THE HUDSON
BAY WITH A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ROTATING SOUTHEAST AROUND ITS
PERIPHERY. A WELL-DEFINED 850MB WARM TONGUE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
ARKANSAS THROUGH MEMPHIS AND AREAS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH
MIXING WINDS ARENT VERY STRONG...SUFFICIENT MIXING HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S UNDER THIS WARM
TONGUE. TEMPERATURES MAY CONTINUE TO WARM A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE
THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES AND SHUNTS THE WARM NOSE SOUTHWARD. FOR
TONIGHT...A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION AS WINDS
DROP OFF TOWARD MORNING.

MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS
LONGWAVE TROUGHING REDEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE REVOLVES AROUND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER SYNOPTIC CYCLONE ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL FORCE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER
MOISTURE REMAINS SCARCE AHEAD OF IT. STRONG FORCING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED PRECIP ALONG OR JUST
BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER...SURFACE
INSTABILITY IS NEGLIGIBLE AND ELEVATED CAPE IS EXTREMELY MARGINAL.
NO THUNDER WAS INTRODUCED AT THIS TIME.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DOMINATE THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW RIDGING DEVELOPING MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK...BUT THEY DIFFER WITH REGARD TO HOW STRONG. THE ECMWF ALSO CUTS
OFF ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN
THIS SOLUTION.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 8-10KT TOMORROW FROM THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST THEN DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








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