Home > Products > State Listing > Tennessee Data
Latest:
 AFDMEG |  AFDOHX |  AFDMRX |
  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMRX 220528
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1228 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.AVIATION...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. MAY SEE A BIT OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN TODAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION MORE LIKELY LATE IN THE PERIOD. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
LINGER AT CHA...MOST LIKELY AT MVFR LEVELS. HIGHER CIGS EXPECTED
AT TYS AND TRI. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS BORDERLINE FOR ANY LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR SO WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 220528
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1228 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.AVIATION...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. MAY SEE A BIT OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN TODAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION MORE LIKELY LATE IN THE PERIOD. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
LINGER AT CHA...MOST LIKELY AT MVFR LEVELS. HIGHER CIGS EXPECTED
AT TYS AND TRI. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS BORDERLINE FOR ANY LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR SO WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 220253
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
953 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK MINOR UPDATES TO A FEW GRIDS, BUT NOTHING MAJOR. MOST OF THE
PRECIP IS STAYING OF TO OUR SOUTH, BUT WE STILL HAVE A CHANCE TO
SEE AREAS OF DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS, AND WEATHER
GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS LINE OF THINKING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             40  53  46  57 /  20  10  40  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  38  54  44  59 /  20  10  10  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       37  55  44  58 /  10  10  20  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              35  51  39  57 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 220253
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
953 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK MINOR UPDATES TO A FEW GRIDS, BUT NOTHING MAJOR. MOST OF THE
PRECIP IS STAYING OF TO OUR SOUTH, BUT WE STILL HAVE A CHANCE TO
SEE AREAS OF DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS, AND WEATHER
GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS LINE OF THINKING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             40  53  46  57 /  20  10  40  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  38  54  44  59 /  20  10  10  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       37  55  44  58 /  10  10  20  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              35  51  39  57 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 220253
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
953 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK MINOR UPDATES TO A FEW GRIDS, BUT NOTHING MAJOR. MOST OF THE
PRECIP IS STAYING OF TO OUR SOUTH, BUT WE STILL HAVE A CHANCE TO
SEE AREAS OF DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS, AND WEATHER
GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS LINE OF THINKING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             40  53  46  57 /  20  10  40  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  38  54  44  59 /  20  10  10  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       37  55  44  58 /  10  10  20  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              35  51  39  57 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 220253
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
953 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK MINOR UPDATES TO A FEW GRIDS, BUT NOTHING MAJOR. MOST OF THE
PRECIP IS STAYING OF TO OUR SOUTH, BUT WE STILL HAVE A CHANCE TO
SEE AREAS OF DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS, AND WEATHER
GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS LINE OF THINKING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             40  53  46  57 /  20  10  40  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  38  54  44  59 /  20  10  10  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       37  55  44  58 /  10  10  20  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              35  51  39  57 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOHX 220249
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
849 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.EVENING UPDATE...

CURRENTLY STRATUS IS FILTERING NORTHWARD INTO MIDDLE TN AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EASILY SEEN SPINNING OVER MO FROM SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH
THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BUT MOST LIKELY NOT UNTIL MIDDAY
MONDAY. HAVE PUSHED BACK POPS BECAUSE OF THAT. OVERNIGHT
CHANGES...REMOVED POP WORDING AND JUST LEFT IN DRIZZLE WORDING
OVER THE EAST SINCE THERE COULD BE OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN SPRINKLES
OR DRIZZLE PULLED FROM THE STRATUS. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBS.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
DISTURBANCE WESTERN MISSOURI DOWN THROUGH ARKANSAS IS PULLING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING IN THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MVFR RANGE AND POSSIBLY IFR AT
CROSSVILLE AFTER 06Z. CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ON
MONDAY BUT HARD TO JUSTIFY WITH SO MUCH SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE DAY MONDAY SO HAVE INCLUDED
WIND GUSTS IN FORECASTS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL






000
FXUS64 KOHX 220249
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
849 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.EVENING UPDATE...

CURRENTLY STRATUS IS FILTERING NORTHWARD INTO MIDDLE TN AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EASILY SEEN SPINNING OVER MO FROM SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH
THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BUT MOST LIKELY NOT UNTIL MIDDAY
MONDAY. HAVE PUSHED BACK POPS BECAUSE OF THAT. OVERNIGHT
CHANGES...REMOVED POP WORDING AND JUST LEFT IN DRIZZLE WORDING
OVER THE EAST SINCE THERE COULD BE OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN SPRINKLES
OR DRIZZLE PULLED FROM THE STRATUS. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBS.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
DISTURBANCE WESTERN MISSOURI DOWN THROUGH ARKANSAS IS PULLING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING IN THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MVFR RANGE AND POSSIBLY IFR AT
CROSSVILLE AFTER 06Z. CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ON
MONDAY BUT HARD TO JUSTIFY WITH SO MUCH SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE DAY MONDAY SO HAVE INCLUDED
WIND GUSTS IN FORECASTS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL





000
FXUS64 KOHX 220249
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
849 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.EVENING UPDATE...

CURRENTLY STRATUS IS FILTERING NORTHWARD INTO MIDDLE TN AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EASILY SEEN SPINNING OVER MO FROM SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH
THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BUT MOST LIKELY NOT UNTIL MIDDAY
MONDAY. HAVE PUSHED BACK POPS BECAUSE OF THAT. OVERNIGHT
CHANGES...REMOVED POP WORDING AND JUST LEFT IN DRIZZLE WORDING
OVER THE EAST SINCE THERE COULD BE OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN SPRINKLES
OR DRIZZLE PULLED FROM THE STRATUS. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBS.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
DISTURBANCE WESTERN MISSOURI DOWN THROUGH ARKANSAS IS PULLING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING IN THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MVFR RANGE AND POSSIBLY IFR AT
CROSSVILLE AFTER 06Z. CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ON
MONDAY BUT HARD TO JUSTIFY WITH SO MUCH SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE DAY MONDAY SO HAVE INCLUDED
WIND GUSTS IN FORECASTS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL





000
FXUS64 KOHX 220249
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
849 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.EVENING UPDATE...

CURRENTLY STRATUS IS FILTERING NORTHWARD INTO MIDDLE TN AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EASILY SEEN SPINNING OVER MO FROM SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH
THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BUT MOST LIKELY NOT UNTIL MIDDAY
MONDAY. HAVE PUSHED BACK POPS BECAUSE OF THAT. OVERNIGHT
CHANGES...REMOVED POP WORDING AND JUST LEFT IN DRIZZLE WORDING
OVER THE EAST SINCE THERE COULD BE OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN SPRINKLES
OR DRIZZLE PULLED FROM THE STRATUS. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBS.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
DISTURBANCE WESTERN MISSOURI DOWN THROUGH ARKANSAS IS PULLING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING IN THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MVFR RANGE AND POSSIBLY IFR AT
CROSSVILLE AFTER 06Z. CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ON
MONDAY BUT HARD TO JUSTIFY WITH SO MUCH SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE DAY MONDAY SO HAVE INCLUDED
WIND GUSTS IN FORECASTS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMEG 220155
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
755 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ON TRACK WITH THE GREATEST DROP IN TEMPS EXPECTED
EARLY/OCCURRING NOW...WITH A LEVELING OVERNIGHT AS RETURN FLOW
BEGINS. ANOTHER MILD DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 60 WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

TVT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 2 PM
CST...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AWAY FROM THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT IN THE ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY AND THEN THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 40S TONIGHT
AND IN THE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
MILDER AIR...RAIN CHANCES WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE AS THIS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE MID SOUTH WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WRF/GFS SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR A POTENTIAL
FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD MAY BE
QUESTIONABLE AND CONSEQUENTLY CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND CONSIDER MENTION
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IF LATER MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A
BETTER STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
SUGGEST A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REMOVED THE RAIN
SHOWER/SNOW SHOWER MIX FROM THE FORECAST.

LONG TERM...(CHRISTMAS THROUGH SUNDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON CHRISTMAS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS THE SLOWER AND WETTER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
BLENDED SOLUTIONS WITH A SLIGHT TENDENCY TOWARDS LOWER POPS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME UNTIL LONG TERM MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT.

CJC

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

THIS EVENING WILL SEE VFR PREDOMINATE....THOUGH OCNL MVFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY EDGE INTO TUP FROM SOUTH AND EAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL BRINGING A MODIFIED MARINE AIRMASS INTO
THE MIDSOUTH TOWARD 12Z. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GFS LAMP GUIDANCE
WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE TIMING OF MVFR AND OCNL IFR IN THE
09Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME. THE LAMP GUIDANCE HELD ON TO IFR CIGS
LONGER THAN THE NAM...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW THE NAM FOR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON MONDAY PERIODS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL PICK UP BY 21Z MONDAY. BEST TS POTENTIAL WILL
OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF MEM...BUT MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO
WARRANT AN INCLUSION OF TS IN THE MEM TAF DURING THE 21Z TO 00Z
TIME FRAME.

NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AT MEM MONDAY EVENING...
OVERSPREAD BY SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR OFF THE DECK. IF LOW LEVELS
MIX...MEM COULD SEE VFR DEVELOPING IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY EVENING
CARGO ARRIVAL PUSH.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 220155
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
755 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ON TRACK WITH THE GREATEST DROP IN TEMPS EXPECTED
EARLY/OCCURRING NOW...WITH A LEVELING OVERNIGHT AS RETURN FLOW
BEGINS. ANOTHER MILD DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 60 WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

TVT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 2 PM
CST...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AWAY FROM THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT IN THE ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY AND THEN THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 40S TONIGHT
AND IN THE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
MILDER AIR...RAIN CHANCES WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE AS THIS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE MID SOUTH WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WRF/GFS SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR A POTENTIAL
FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD MAY BE
QUESTIONABLE AND CONSEQUENTLY CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND CONSIDER MENTION
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IF LATER MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A
BETTER STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
SUGGEST A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REMOVED THE RAIN
SHOWER/SNOW SHOWER MIX FROM THE FORECAST.

LONG TERM...(CHRISTMAS THROUGH SUNDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON CHRISTMAS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS THE SLOWER AND WETTER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
BLENDED SOLUTIONS WITH A SLIGHT TENDENCY TOWARDS LOWER POPS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME UNTIL LONG TERM MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT.

CJC

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

THIS EVENING WILL SEE VFR PREDOMINATE....THOUGH OCNL MVFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY EDGE INTO TUP FROM SOUTH AND EAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL BRINGING A MODIFIED MARINE AIRMASS INTO
THE MIDSOUTH TOWARD 12Z. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GFS LAMP GUIDANCE
WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE TIMING OF MVFR AND OCNL IFR IN THE
09Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME. THE LAMP GUIDANCE HELD ON TO IFR CIGS
LONGER THAN THE NAM...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW THE NAM FOR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON MONDAY PERIODS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL PICK UP BY 21Z MONDAY. BEST TS POTENTIAL WILL
OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF MEM...BUT MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO
WARRANT AN INCLUSION OF TS IN THE MEM TAF DURING THE 21Z TO 00Z
TIME FRAME.

NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AT MEM MONDAY EVENING...
OVERSPREAD BY SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR OFF THE DECK. IF LOW LEVELS
MIX...MEM COULD SEE VFR DEVELOPING IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY EVENING
CARGO ARRIVAL PUSH.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 220155
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
755 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ON TRACK WITH THE GREATEST DROP IN TEMPS EXPECTED
EARLY/OCCURRING NOW...WITH A LEVELING OVERNIGHT AS RETURN FLOW
BEGINS. ANOTHER MILD DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 60 WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

TVT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 2 PM
CST...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AWAY FROM THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT IN THE ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY AND THEN THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 40S TONIGHT
AND IN THE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
MILDER AIR...RAIN CHANCES WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE AS THIS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE MID SOUTH WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WRF/GFS SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR A POTENTIAL
FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD MAY BE
QUESTIONABLE AND CONSEQUENTLY CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND CONSIDER MENTION
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IF LATER MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A
BETTER STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
SUGGEST A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REMOVED THE RAIN
SHOWER/SNOW SHOWER MIX FROM THE FORECAST.

LONG TERM...(CHRISTMAS THROUGH SUNDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON CHRISTMAS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS THE SLOWER AND WETTER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
BLENDED SOLUTIONS WITH A SLIGHT TENDENCY TOWARDS LOWER POPS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME UNTIL LONG TERM MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT.

CJC

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

THIS EVENING WILL SEE VFR PREDOMINATE....THOUGH OCNL MVFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY EDGE INTO TUP FROM SOUTH AND EAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL BRINGING A MODIFIED MARINE AIRMASS INTO
THE MIDSOUTH TOWARD 12Z. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GFS LAMP GUIDANCE
WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE TIMING OF MVFR AND OCNL IFR IN THE
09Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME. THE LAMP GUIDANCE HELD ON TO IFR CIGS
LONGER THAN THE NAM...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW THE NAM FOR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON MONDAY PERIODS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL PICK UP BY 21Z MONDAY. BEST TS POTENTIAL WILL
OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF MEM...BUT MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO
WARRANT AN INCLUSION OF TS IN THE MEM TAF DURING THE 21Z TO 00Z
TIME FRAME.

NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AT MEM MONDAY EVENING...
OVERSPREAD BY SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR OFF THE DECK. IF LOW LEVELS
MIX...MEM COULD SEE VFR DEVELOPING IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY EVENING
CARGO ARRIVAL PUSH.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 220155
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
755 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ON TRACK WITH THE GREATEST DROP IN TEMPS EXPECTED
EARLY/OCCURRING NOW...WITH A LEVELING OVERNIGHT AS RETURN FLOW
BEGINS. ANOTHER MILD DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 60 WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

TVT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 2 PM
CST...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AWAY FROM THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT IN THE ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY AND THEN THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 40S TONIGHT
AND IN THE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
MILDER AIR...RAIN CHANCES WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE AS THIS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE MID SOUTH WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WRF/GFS SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR A POTENTIAL
FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD MAY BE
QUESTIONABLE AND CONSEQUENTLY CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND CONSIDER MENTION
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IF LATER MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A
BETTER STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
SUGGEST A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REMOVED THE RAIN
SHOWER/SNOW SHOWER MIX FROM THE FORECAST.

LONG TERM...(CHRISTMAS THROUGH SUNDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON CHRISTMAS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS THE SLOWER AND WETTER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
BLENDED SOLUTIONS WITH A SLIGHT TENDENCY TOWARDS LOWER POPS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME UNTIL LONG TERM MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT.

CJC

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

THIS EVENING WILL SEE VFR PREDOMINATE....THOUGH OCNL MVFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY EDGE INTO TUP FROM SOUTH AND EAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL BRINGING A MODIFIED MARINE AIRMASS INTO
THE MIDSOUTH TOWARD 12Z. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GFS LAMP GUIDANCE
WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE TIMING OF MVFR AND OCNL IFR IN THE
09Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME. THE LAMP GUIDANCE HELD ON TO IFR CIGS
LONGER THAN THE NAM...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW THE NAM FOR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON MONDAY PERIODS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL PICK UP BY 21Z MONDAY. BEST TS POTENTIAL WILL
OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF MEM...BUT MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO
WARRANT AN INCLUSION OF TS IN THE MEM TAF DURING THE 21Z TO 00Z
TIME FRAME.

NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AT MEM MONDAY EVENING...
OVERSPREAD BY SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR OFF THE DECK. IF LOW LEVELS
MIX...MEM COULD SEE VFR DEVELOPING IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY EVENING
CARGO ARRIVAL PUSH.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 220155
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
755 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ON TRACK WITH THE GREATEST DROP IN TEMPS EXPECTED
EARLY/OCCURRING NOW...WITH A LEVELING OVERNIGHT AS RETURN FLOW
BEGINS. ANOTHER MILD DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 60 WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

TVT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 2 PM
CST...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AWAY FROM THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT IN THE ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY AND THEN THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 40S TONIGHT
AND IN THE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
MILDER AIR...RAIN CHANCES WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE AS THIS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE MID SOUTH WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WRF/GFS SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR A POTENTIAL
FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD MAY BE
QUESTIONABLE AND CONSEQUENTLY CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND CONSIDER MENTION
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IF LATER MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A
BETTER STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
SUGGEST A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REMOVED THE RAIN
SHOWER/SNOW SHOWER MIX FROM THE FORECAST.

LONG TERM...(CHRISTMAS THROUGH SUNDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON CHRISTMAS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS THE SLOWER AND WETTER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
BLENDED SOLUTIONS WITH A SLIGHT TENDENCY TOWARDS LOWER POPS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME UNTIL LONG TERM MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT.

CJC

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

THIS EVENING WILL SEE VFR PREDOMINATE....THOUGH OCNL MVFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY EDGE INTO TUP FROM SOUTH AND EAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL BRINGING A MODIFIED MARINE AIRMASS INTO
THE MIDSOUTH TOWARD 12Z. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GFS LAMP GUIDANCE
WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE TIMING OF MVFR AND OCNL IFR IN THE
09Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME. THE LAMP GUIDANCE HELD ON TO IFR CIGS
LONGER THAN THE NAM...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW THE NAM FOR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON MONDAY PERIODS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL PICK UP BY 21Z MONDAY. BEST TS POTENTIAL WILL
OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF MEM...BUT MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO
WARRANT AN INCLUSION OF TS IN THE MEM TAF DURING THE 21Z TO 00Z
TIME FRAME.

NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AT MEM MONDAY EVENING...
OVERSPREAD BY SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR OFF THE DECK. IF LOW LEVELS
MIX...MEM COULD SEE VFR DEVELOPING IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY EVENING
CARGO ARRIVAL PUSH.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 220155
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
755 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ON TRACK WITH THE GREATEST DROP IN TEMPS EXPECTED
EARLY/OCCURRING NOW...WITH A LEVELING OVERNIGHT AS RETURN FLOW
BEGINS. ANOTHER MILD DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 60 WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

TVT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 2 PM
CST...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AWAY FROM THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT IN THE ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY AND THEN THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 40S TONIGHT
AND IN THE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
MILDER AIR...RAIN CHANCES WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE AS THIS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE MID SOUTH WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WRF/GFS SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR A POTENTIAL
FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD MAY BE
QUESTIONABLE AND CONSEQUENTLY CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND CONSIDER MENTION
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IF LATER MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A
BETTER STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
SUGGEST A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REMOVED THE RAIN
SHOWER/SNOW SHOWER MIX FROM THE FORECAST.

LONG TERM...(CHRISTMAS THROUGH SUNDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON CHRISTMAS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS THE SLOWER AND WETTER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
BLENDED SOLUTIONS WITH A SLIGHT TENDENCY TOWARDS LOWER POPS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME UNTIL LONG TERM MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT.

CJC

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

THIS EVENING WILL SEE VFR PREDOMINATE....THOUGH OCNL MVFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY EDGE INTO TUP FROM SOUTH AND EAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL BRINGING A MODIFIED MARINE AIRMASS INTO
THE MIDSOUTH TOWARD 12Z. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GFS LAMP GUIDANCE
WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE TIMING OF MVFR AND OCNL IFR IN THE
09Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME. THE LAMP GUIDANCE HELD ON TO IFR CIGS
LONGER THAN THE NAM...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW THE NAM FOR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON MONDAY PERIODS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL PICK UP BY 21Z MONDAY. BEST TS POTENTIAL WILL
OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF MEM...BUT MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO
WARRANT AN INCLUSION OF TS IN THE MEM TAF DURING THE 21Z TO 00Z
TIME FRAME.

NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AT MEM MONDAY EVENING...
OVERSPREAD BY SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR OFF THE DECK. IF LOW LEVELS
MIX...MEM COULD SEE VFR DEVELOPING IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY EVENING
CARGO ARRIVAL PUSH.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 212357 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
557 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 2 PM
CST...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AWAY FROM THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT IN THE ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY AND THEN THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 40S TONIGHT
AND IN THE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
MILDER AIR...RAIN CHANCES WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE AS THIS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE MID SOUTH WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WRF/GFS SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR A POTENTIAL
FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD MAY BE
QUESTIONABLE AND CONSEQUENTLY CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND CONSIDER MENTION
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IF LATER MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A
BETTER STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
SUGGEST A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REMOVED THE RAIN
SHOWER/SNOW SHOWER MIX FROM THE FORECAST.

LONG TERM...(CHRISTMAS THROUGH SUNDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON CHRISTMAS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS THE SLOWER AND WETTER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
BLENDED SOLUTIONS WITH A SLIGHT TENDENCY TOWARDS LOWER POPS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME UNTIL LONG TERM MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

THIS EVENING WILL SEE VFR PREDOMINATE....THOUGH OCNL MVFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY EDGE INTO TUP FROM SOUTH AND EAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL BRINGING A MODIFIED MARINE AIRMASS INTO
THE MIDSOUTH TOWARD 12Z. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GFS LAMP GUIDANCE
WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE TIMING OF MVFR AND OCNL IFR IN THE
09Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME. THE LAMP GUIDANCE HELD ON TO IFR CIGS
LONGER THAN THE NAM...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW THE NAM FOR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON MONDAY PERIODS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL PICK UP BY 21Z MONDAY. BEST TS POTENTIAL WILL
OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF MEM...BUT MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO
WARRANT AN INCLUSION OF TS IN THE MEM TAF DURING THE 21Z TO 00Z
TIME FRAME.

NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AT MEM MONDAY EVENING...
OVERSPREAD BY SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR OFF THE DECK. IF LOW LEVELS
MIX...MEM COULD SEE VFR DEVELOPING IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY EVENING
CARGO ARRIVAL PUSH.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 212357 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
557 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 2 PM
CST...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AWAY FROM THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT IN THE ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY AND THEN THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 40S TONIGHT
AND IN THE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
MILDER AIR...RAIN CHANCES WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE AS THIS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE MID SOUTH WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WRF/GFS SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR A POTENTIAL
FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD MAY BE
QUESTIONABLE AND CONSEQUENTLY CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND CONSIDER MENTION
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IF LATER MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A
BETTER STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
SUGGEST A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REMOVED THE RAIN
SHOWER/SNOW SHOWER MIX FROM THE FORECAST.

LONG TERM...(CHRISTMAS THROUGH SUNDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON CHRISTMAS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS THE SLOWER AND WETTER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
BLENDED SOLUTIONS WITH A SLIGHT TENDENCY TOWARDS LOWER POPS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME UNTIL LONG TERM MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

THIS EVENING WILL SEE VFR PREDOMINATE....THOUGH OCNL MVFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY EDGE INTO TUP FROM SOUTH AND EAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL BRINGING A MODIFIED MARINE AIRMASS INTO
THE MIDSOUTH TOWARD 12Z. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GFS LAMP GUIDANCE
WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE TIMING OF MVFR AND OCNL IFR IN THE
09Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME. THE LAMP GUIDANCE HELD ON TO IFR CIGS
LONGER THAN THE NAM...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW THE NAM FOR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON MONDAY PERIODS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL PICK UP BY 21Z MONDAY. BEST TS POTENTIAL WILL
OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF MEM...BUT MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO
WARRANT AN INCLUSION OF TS IN THE MEM TAF DURING THE 21Z TO 00Z
TIME FRAME.

NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AT MEM MONDAY EVENING...
OVERSPREAD BY SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR OFF THE DECK. IF LOW LEVELS
MIX...MEM COULD SEE VFR DEVELOPING IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY EVENING
CARGO ARRIVAL PUSH.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 212357 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
557 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 2 PM
CST...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AWAY FROM THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT IN THE ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY AND THEN THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 40S TONIGHT
AND IN THE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
MILDER AIR...RAIN CHANCES WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE AS THIS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE MID SOUTH WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WRF/GFS SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR A POTENTIAL
FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD MAY BE
QUESTIONABLE AND CONSEQUENTLY CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND CONSIDER MENTION
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IF LATER MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A
BETTER STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
SUGGEST A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REMOVED THE RAIN
SHOWER/SNOW SHOWER MIX FROM THE FORECAST.

LONG TERM...(CHRISTMAS THROUGH SUNDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON CHRISTMAS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS THE SLOWER AND WETTER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
BLENDED SOLUTIONS WITH A SLIGHT TENDENCY TOWARDS LOWER POPS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME UNTIL LONG TERM MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

THIS EVENING WILL SEE VFR PREDOMINATE....THOUGH OCNL MVFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY EDGE INTO TUP FROM SOUTH AND EAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL BRINGING A MODIFIED MARINE AIRMASS INTO
THE MIDSOUTH TOWARD 12Z. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GFS LAMP GUIDANCE
WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE TIMING OF MVFR AND OCNL IFR IN THE
09Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME. THE LAMP GUIDANCE HELD ON TO IFR CIGS
LONGER THAN THE NAM...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW THE NAM FOR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON MONDAY PERIODS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL PICK UP BY 21Z MONDAY. BEST TS POTENTIAL WILL
OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF MEM...BUT MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO
WARRANT AN INCLUSION OF TS IN THE MEM TAF DURING THE 21Z TO 00Z
TIME FRAME.

NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AT MEM MONDAY EVENING...
OVERSPREAD BY SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR OFF THE DECK. IF LOW LEVELS
MIX...MEM COULD SEE VFR DEVELOPING IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY EVENING
CARGO ARRIVAL PUSH.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 212357 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
557 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 2 PM
CST...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AWAY FROM THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT IN THE ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY AND THEN THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 40S TONIGHT
AND IN THE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
MILDER AIR...RAIN CHANCES WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE AS THIS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE MID SOUTH WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WRF/GFS SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR A POTENTIAL
FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD MAY BE
QUESTIONABLE AND CONSEQUENTLY CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND CONSIDER MENTION
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IF LATER MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A
BETTER STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
SUGGEST A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REMOVED THE RAIN
SHOWER/SNOW SHOWER MIX FROM THE FORECAST.

LONG TERM...(CHRISTMAS THROUGH SUNDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON CHRISTMAS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS THE SLOWER AND WETTER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
BLENDED SOLUTIONS WITH A SLIGHT TENDENCY TOWARDS LOWER POPS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME UNTIL LONG TERM MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

THIS EVENING WILL SEE VFR PREDOMINATE....THOUGH OCNL MVFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY EDGE INTO TUP FROM SOUTH AND EAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL BRINGING A MODIFIED MARINE AIRMASS INTO
THE MIDSOUTH TOWARD 12Z. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GFS LAMP GUIDANCE
WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE TIMING OF MVFR AND OCNL IFR IN THE
09Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME. THE LAMP GUIDANCE HELD ON TO IFR CIGS
LONGER THAN THE NAM...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW THE NAM FOR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON MONDAY PERIODS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL PICK UP BY 21Z MONDAY. BEST TS POTENTIAL WILL
OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF MEM...BUT MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO
WARRANT AN INCLUSION OF TS IN THE MEM TAF DURING THE 21Z TO 00Z
TIME FRAME.

NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AT MEM MONDAY EVENING...
OVERSPREAD BY SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR OFF THE DECK. IF LOW LEVELS
MIX...MEM COULD SEE VFR DEVELOPING IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY EVENING
CARGO ARRIVAL PUSH.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 212357 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
557 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 2 PM
CST...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AWAY FROM THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT IN THE ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY AND THEN THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 40S TONIGHT
AND IN THE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
MILDER AIR...RAIN CHANCES WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE AS THIS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE MID SOUTH WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WRF/GFS SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR A POTENTIAL
FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD MAY BE
QUESTIONABLE AND CONSEQUENTLY CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND CONSIDER MENTION
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IF LATER MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A
BETTER STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
SUGGEST A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REMOVED THE RAIN
SHOWER/SNOW SHOWER MIX FROM THE FORECAST.

LONG TERM...(CHRISTMAS THROUGH SUNDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON CHRISTMAS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS THE SLOWER AND WETTER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
BLENDED SOLUTIONS WITH A SLIGHT TENDENCY TOWARDS LOWER POPS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME UNTIL LONG TERM MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

THIS EVENING WILL SEE VFR PREDOMINATE....THOUGH OCNL MVFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY EDGE INTO TUP FROM SOUTH AND EAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL BRINGING A MODIFIED MARINE AIRMASS INTO
THE MIDSOUTH TOWARD 12Z. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GFS LAMP GUIDANCE
WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE TIMING OF MVFR AND OCNL IFR IN THE
09Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME. THE LAMP GUIDANCE HELD ON TO IFR CIGS
LONGER THAN THE NAM...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW THE NAM FOR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON MONDAY PERIODS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL PICK UP BY 21Z MONDAY. BEST TS POTENTIAL WILL
OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF MEM...BUT MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO
WARRANT AN INCLUSION OF TS IN THE MEM TAF DURING THE 21Z TO 00Z
TIME FRAME.

NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AT MEM MONDAY EVENING...
OVERSPREAD BY SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR OFF THE DECK. IF LOW LEVELS
MIX...MEM COULD SEE VFR DEVELOPING IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY EVENING
CARGO ARRIVAL PUSH.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 212346
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
546 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
DISTURBANCE WESTERN MISSOURI DOWN THROUGH ARKANSAS IS PULLING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING IN THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MVFR RANGE AND POSSIBLY IFR AT
CROSSVILLE AFTER 06Z. CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ON
MONDAY BUT HARD TO JUSTIFY WITH SO MUCH SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE DAY MONDAY SO HAVE INCLUDED
WIND GUSTS IN FORECASTS.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 212346
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
546 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
DISTURBANCE WESTERN MISSOURI DOWN THROUGH ARKANSAS IS PULLING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING IN THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MVFR RANGE AND POSSIBLY IFR AT
CROSSVILLE AFTER 06Z. CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ON
MONDAY BUT HARD TO JUSTIFY WITH SO MUCH SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE DAY MONDAY SO HAVE INCLUDED
WIND GUSTS IN FORECASTS.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KMRX 212314
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
614 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS... CHANCE OF DRIZZLE INVADING THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT, BUT THINK THAT BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
TERMINALS SO WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS. HAVE MVFR CEILINGS AT
ALL SITES AS CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM STORMS TO THE SOUTH. HAVE ALSO
MENTIONED BR AT KTRI AS CROSSOVER TEMPS SUGGEST THAT THEY COULD SEE
FOG FORM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM




000
FXUS64 KOHX 212149
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
349 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM
THE SOUTH TONIGHT...WHICH MEANS A WARMER NIGHT IS IN STORE...LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S OVER THE
NORTH AND LOW 40S IN THE SOUTH. LOW POPS WILL SURROUND THE MID STATE ON
MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM HEADS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. BY
MONDAY NIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING
AS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARM TO
NEAR 60 DEGREES AND THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AS FAR AS THE FROPA GOES...IT MAY
BE WEDNESDAY MORNING BY THE TIME THE FRONT CLEARS THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...IF TRAVELLING
CLOSER TO THE GULF FOR THE HOLIDAYS KEEP AN EYE ON FORECASTS AS
THEY COULD SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA,
MISSISSIPPI, AND LOUISIANA. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHEST MOISTURE PUSHING EAST BY
NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT ONCE AGAIN MODELS
ARE TRENDING WARMER WITH THESE TEMPS. THE FREEZING LEVEL ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LOOKS TOO HIGH FOR ANYTHING BUT RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WHERE SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH
RAIN...MAINLY LATE IN THE EVENING. ANY LINGERING PRECIP AROUND
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AFTER 12AM THURSDAY MORNING MAY FALL AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AS LOWER LEVELS COOL TO THE LOW 30S. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON THE PLATEAU HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A LIGHT
SNOW DURING THIS TIME...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WITH FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IT IS ABLE TO BRING
OUR WAY. WENT AS HIGH AS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
WRAPPING UP ON SATURDAY EVENING. COULD SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE PLATEAU NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT LOOKS LIKE WE`LL BE COOLING DOWN TO JUST BELOW NORMAL
FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS NEXT WEEKEND. NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 40S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND UPPER 20S
FOR LOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      40  56  51  60 /  10  20  40  80
CLARKSVILLE    38  55  51  58 /  10  20  60  90
CROSSVILLE     38  52  47  56 /  20  20  20  80
COLUMBIA       41  56  51  60 /  20  20  40  80
LAWRENCEBURG   42  55  51  60 /  20  20  50  90
WAVERLY        39  55  51  59 /  10  20  70  90

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11





000
FXUS64 KOHX 212149
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
349 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM
THE SOUTH TONIGHT...WHICH MEANS A WARMER NIGHT IS IN STORE...LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S OVER THE
NORTH AND LOW 40S IN THE SOUTH. LOW POPS WILL SURROUND THE MID STATE ON
MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM HEADS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. BY
MONDAY NIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING
AS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARM TO
NEAR 60 DEGREES AND THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AS FAR AS THE FROPA GOES...IT MAY
BE WEDNESDAY MORNING BY THE TIME THE FRONT CLEARS THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...IF TRAVELLING
CLOSER TO THE GULF FOR THE HOLIDAYS KEEP AN EYE ON FORECASTS AS
THEY COULD SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA,
MISSISSIPPI, AND LOUISIANA. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHEST MOISTURE PUSHING EAST BY
NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT ONCE AGAIN MODELS
ARE TRENDING WARMER WITH THESE TEMPS. THE FREEZING LEVEL ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LOOKS TOO HIGH FOR ANYTHING BUT RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WHERE SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH
RAIN...MAINLY LATE IN THE EVENING. ANY LINGERING PRECIP AROUND
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AFTER 12AM THURSDAY MORNING MAY FALL AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AS LOWER LEVELS COOL TO THE LOW 30S. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON THE PLATEAU HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A LIGHT
SNOW DURING THIS TIME...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WITH FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IT IS ABLE TO BRING
OUR WAY. WENT AS HIGH AS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
WRAPPING UP ON SATURDAY EVENING. COULD SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE PLATEAU NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT LOOKS LIKE WE`LL BE COOLING DOWN TO JUST BELOW NORMAL
FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS NEXT WEEKEND. NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 40S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND UPPER 20S
FOR LOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      40  56  51  60 /  10  20  40  80
CLARKSVILLE    38  55  51  58 /  10  20  60  90
CROSSVILLE     38  52  47  56 /  20  20  20  80
COLUMBIA       41  56  51  60 /  20  20  40  80
LAWRENCEBURG   42  55  51  60 /  20  20  50  90
WAVERLY        39  55  51  59 /  10  20  70  90

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11






000
FXUS64 KMEG 212121
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
321 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 2 PM
CST...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AWAY FROM THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT IN THE ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY AND THEN THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 40S TONIGHT
AND IN THE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
MILDER AIR...RAIN CHANCES WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE AS THIS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE MID SOUTH WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WRF/GFS SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR A POTENTIAL
FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD MAY BE
QUESTIONABLE AND CONSEQUENTLY CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND CONSIDER MENTION
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IF LATER MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A
BETTER STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
SUGGEST A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REMOVED THE RAIN
SHOWER/SNOW SHOWER MIX FROM THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(CHRISTMAS THROUGH SUNDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON CHRISTMAS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS THE SLOWER AND WETTER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
BLENDED SOLUTIONS WITH A SLIGHT TENDENCY TOWARDS LOWER POPS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME UNTIL LONG TERM MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

A MID CLOUD DECK AT JBR IS ERODING TO THE NORTH WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AFTER 06Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN
WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREA WINDS BY SUNRISE AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-10KT RANGE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...LIKELY STRENGTHENING A BIT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW.

JDS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 212009
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
309 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR THE SHORT
TERM...WITH THE GFS KEEPING MEASUREABLE PRECIP TO OUR EAST
TONIGHT...WHILE THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER MODEL. HOWEVER
THE NAM HAS BEEN TRENDING DRIER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. IT SHOWS
MOISTURE CONFINED TO A SHALLOW LAYER BELOW 700 MB AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT AT THE 290-295K LEVELS...MORE OF A DRIZZLE PROFILE THAN MUCH
MEASUREABLE RAIN. A WEAK DOWNSLOPE WIND COULD FURTHER REDUCE QPF IN
THE TN VALLEY. THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD TO HANDLE THIS
PATTERN...WITH CHANCE POPS EAST TAPERING TO ONLY DRIZZLE WEST...SO
NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOWN BY THE NAM
LIFTS NORTH OF THE OUR AREA BETWEEN 12-15Z...SO WILL END ALL RAIN
CHANCES BEFORE NOON. HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER LINGERS BEHIND IS VERY
UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE AND KEEP MOISTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL
SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS ACTIVE AND THEN A
QUIETER FINISH. STORMS...RAIN/WIND...AND SNOW STILL POSSIBLE. THIS
IS BECOMING A TRICKY FORECAST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FEATURE HEIGHTS QUICKLY BUILDING OUT AHEAD
OF OUR IMPENDING STORM SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING FOR
A WHILE NOW. AS MENTIONED IN YESTERDAY`S DISCUSSION...THIS WILL
KEEP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY UNSEASONABLE WARM AS DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK TO BE 10 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S
AND NEAR 60 IN A FEW SPOTS...GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. START BRINGING IN RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING
THEM THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IT WILL TAKE A
WHILE FOR PORTIONS OF NEON AND SOFA TO SEE RAIN BECAUSE OF.

STORMS...LATE TUESDAYS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING LOOKS TRICKY TO ME
REGARDING STORMS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS...IT DEPENDS ON SEVERAL FACTORS.
HOW MUCH INFLUENCE/IMPACT WILL THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS FURTHER
SOUTH HAVE ACROSS OUR AREA...WHERE WILL THE WARM FRONT BE
DRAPED...HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL THERE BE? THE CERTAINTIES
ARE...STRONG LIFT PRESENT...HIGH SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY WATCH THIS TO
SEE HOW IT FURTHER UNFOLDS. LEFT THUNDER IN FOR KNOXVILLE
AND SOUTHWARD FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

FOR THE RAIN/WIND...IF THE CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH REALLY BLOWS UP
IT COULD LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP WE SEE. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR STRONG
CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH TO INTERRUPT THE FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO OUR
AREA. HAVING SAID THAT...I STILL THINK IT IS LIKELY WE SEE SOME
DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS DUE TO THE EXISTING
MOISTURE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE LOW
MOVING ACROSS...AND THE STRONG 850MB JET AXIS OVER OUR AREA. CURRENT
GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PW VALUES RANGING FROM 1.40
TO 1.20 INCHES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS PUTS US AT 2SD ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. I STILL DON`T THINK FLOODING WILL BE A
CONCERN BECAUSE OF HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING. HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WITH
AMOUNTS FROM HALF AN INCH TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.
GUSTY WINDS FROM 20 TO 30KTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE 40 TO
50KT 850MB JET. BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

THE SNOW...FOR THE SNOW LOVERS IT IS NOT LOOKING TOO GOOD. FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
AIR...AND THEY CONTINUE TO DO SO. THIS HAS TO DO WITH THE TRACK OF
THE LOW. DUE TO THE DELAYED COLD AIR AND THE SPEED OF WHICH THE
UPPER LOW RACES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SNOW POTENTIAL CONTINUES
TO DECREASE. BY THE TIME THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...CHRISTMAS EVE...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE LITTLE
MOISTURE LEFT. BECAUSE OF THE SPEED OF THE LOW THERE WON`T BE MUCH
TIME TO FUNNEL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THOUGH THERE
LIKELY WON`T BE ANY ACCUMULATION ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...MOST
AREAS WILL STILL PROBABLY SEE LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING....WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ACROSS NE TN AND SW VA. UPPER ELEVATIONS MAY STILL SEE
SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OR TWO.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITING ON
THURSDAY...CHRISTMAS DAY...AS IT RACES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WE MAY
EVEN SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND
SOUTHERN AREAS. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WEAKER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT MODELS AREN`T HANDLING IT TOO WELL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH POPS THOUGH UNTIL THERE IS BETTER RESOLUTION. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY SUNDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             40  53  46  57 /  20  10  40  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  38  54  44  59 /  20  10  10  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       37  55  44  58 /  20  10  20  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              35  51  39  57 /  40  20  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 212009
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
309 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR THE SHORT
TERM...WITH THE GFS KEEPING MEASUREABLE PRECIP TO OUR EAST
TONIGHT...WHILE THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER MODEL. HOWEVER
THE NAM HAS BEEN TRENDING DRIER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. IT SHOWS
MOISTURE CONFINED TO A SHALLOW LAYER BELOW 700 MB AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT AT THE 290-295K LEVELS...MORE OF A DRIZZLE PROFILE THAN MUCH
MEASUREABLE RAIN. A WEAK DOWNSLOPE WIND COULD FURTHER REDUCE QPF IN
THE TN VALLEY. THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD TO HANDLE THIS
PATTERN...WITH CHANCE POPS EAST TAPERING TO ONLY DRIZZLE WEST...SO
NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOWN BY THE NAM
LIFTS NORTH OF THE OUR AREA BETWEEN 12-15Z...SO WILL END ALL RAIN
CHANCES BEFORE NOON. HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER LINGERS BEHIND IS VERY
UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE AND KEEP MOISTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL
SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS ACTIVE AND THEN A
QUIETER FINISH. STORMS...RAIN/WIND...AND SNOW STILL POSSIBLE. THIS
IS BECOMING A TRICKY FORECAST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FEATURE HEIGHTS QUICKLY BUILDING OUT AHEAD
OF OUR IMPENDING STORM SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING FOR
A WHILE NOW. AS MENTIONED IN YESTERDAY`S DISCUSSION...THIS WILL
KEEP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY UNSEASONABLE WARM AS DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK TO BE 10 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S
AND NEAR 60 IN A FEW SPOTS...GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. START BRINGING IN RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING
THEM THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IT WILL TAKE A
WHILE FOR PORTIONS OF NEON AND SOFA TO SEE RAIN BECAUSE OF.

STORMS...LATE TUESDAYS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING LOOKS TRICKY TO ME
REGARDING STORMS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS...IT DEPENDS ON SEVERAL FACTORS.
HOW MUCH INFLUENCE/IMPACT WILL THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS FURTHER
SOUTH HAVE ACROSS OUR AREA...WHERE WILL THE WARM FRONT BE
DRAPED...HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL THERE BE? THE CERTAINTIES
ARE...STRONG LIFT PRESENT...HIGH SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY WATCH THIS TO
SEE HOW IT FURTHER UNFOLDS. LEFT THUNDER IN FOR KNOXVILLE
AND SOUTHWARD FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

FOR THE RAIN/WIND...IF THE CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH REALLY BLOWS UP
IT COULD LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP WE SEE. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR STRONG
CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH TO INTERRUPT THE FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO OUR
AREA. HAVING SAID THAT...I STILL THINK IT IS LIKELY WE SEE SOME
DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS DUE TO THE EXISTING
MOISTURE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE LOW
MOVING ACROSS...AND THE STRONG 850MB JET AXIS OVER OUR AREA. CURRENT
GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PW VALUES RANGING FROM 1.40
TO 1.20 INCHES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS PUTS US AT 2SD ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. I STILL DON`T THINK FLOODING WILL BE A
CONCERN BECAUSE OF HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING. HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WITH
AMOUNTS FROM HALF AN INCH TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.
GUSTY WINDS FROM 20 TO 30KTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE 40 TO
50KT 850MB JET. BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

THE SNOW...FOR THE SNOW LOVERS IT IS NOT LOOKING TOO GOOD. FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
AIR...AND THEY CONTINUE TO DO SO. THIS HAS TO DO WITH THE TRACK OF
THE LOW. DUE TO THE DELAYED COLD AIR AND THE SPEED OF WHICH THE
UPPER LOW RACES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SNOW POTENTIAL CONTINUES
TO DECREASE. BY THE TIME THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...CHRISTMAS EVE...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE LITTLE
MOISTURE LEFT. BECAUSE OF THE SPEED OF THE LOW THERE WON`T BE MUCH
TIME TO FUNNEL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THOUGH THERE
LIKELY WON`T BE ANY ACCUMULATION ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...MOST
AREAS WILL STILL PROBABLY SEE LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING....WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ACROSS NE TN AND SW VA. UPPER ELEVATIONS MAY STILL SEE
SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OR TWO.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITING ON
THURSDAY...CHRISTMAS DAY...AS IT RACES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WE MAY
EVEN SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND
SOUTHERN AREAS. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WEAKER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT MODELS AREN`T HANDLING IT TOO WELL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH POPS THOUGH UNTIL THERE IS BETTER RESOLUTION. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY SUNDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             40  53  46  57 /  20  10  40  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  38  54  44  59 /  20  10  10  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       37  55  44  58 /  20  10  20  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              35  51  39  57 /  40  20  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/SR



000
FXUS64 KOHX 211800
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1200 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
STRATUS DECK ATTEMPTING TO ADVANCE FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ADVANCING LINE OF CLOUDINESS EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM
CSV SOUTHWEST THROUGH PULASKI. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
STRATUS LAYER ADVANCING AND OVERTAKING THE AREA...BUT NOT UNTIL
THIS EVENING. WILL GO AHEAD AND ADJUST THE SKY GRIDS TO SHOW SOME
ADDED CLOUDINESS FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.
OTW...WILL BUMP TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
STRATUS DECK WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA BY 03Z OR SO.
CIGS WILL INITIALLY BE AT THE VFR LEVELS BUT WILL LOWER WITH
TIME. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS NEAR CSV AFT 06Z. OTW...WE COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE BETWEEN
12Z AND 18Z WITH MODERATE FOG AND IFR CIGS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED BR TO PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT
BNA AND CKV EARLY TODAY (THROUGH 14Z). AFTER THAT, EXPECT VFR AT ALL
MID STATE TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN OVC
DECK OF ISENTROPICALLY-INDUCED CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA THIS EVENING, AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FORECAST DECK OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
HAVE BASSES AROUND 3500 FT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KMEG 211740
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1140 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS IS RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE MID SOUTH THIS
MORNING EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF EAST/NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.
TEMPERATURES AS OF 10 AM CST RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE
40S. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IN GREAT SHAPE.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

A SFC HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS RIDGING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING PROVIDING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO W TN AND N MS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST OVER AR AND MO...SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH ARE PROVIDING LOW CLOUDS FROM MOISTURE ADVECTION.
EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS LINGERING
THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE NW. THE SFC HIGH WILL RETREAT TO
THE NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GIVING WAY TO THE NEXT SYSTEM
EARLY THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND
PROVIDE HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER NE MS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE SUNNY
AND BECOME A LITTLE MILDER IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS OVER THE COMING WEEKEND.

SWC

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

VFR WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
MOVING IN LATE. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTH AND BEGIN INCREASING OVERNIGHT.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...A MID CLOUD DECK AT JBR IS ERODING TO THE NORTH WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AFTER 06Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN
WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREA WINDS BY SUNRISE AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-10KT RANGE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...LIKELY STRENGTHENING A BIT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 211727
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1127 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
STRATUS DECK WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA BY 03Z OR SO.
CIGS WILL INITIALLY BE AT THE VFR LEVELS BUT WILL LOWER WITH
TIME. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS NEAR CSV AFT 06Z. OTW...WE COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE BETWEEN
12Z AND 18Z WITH MODERATE FOG AND IFR CIGS.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED BR TO PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT
BNA AND CKV EARLY TODAY (THROUGH 14Z). AFTER THAT, EXPECT VFR AT ALL
MID STATE TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN OVC
DECK OF ISENTROPICALLY-INDUCED CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA THIS EVENING, AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FORECAST DECK OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
HAVE BASSES AROUND 3500 FT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 211727
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1127 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
STRATUS DECK WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA BY 03Z OR SO.
CIGS WILL INITIALLY BE AT THE VFR LEVELS BUT WILL LOWER WITH
TIME. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS NEAR CSV AFT 06Z. OTW...WE COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE BETWEEN
12Z AND 18Z WITH MODERATE FOG AND IFR CIGS.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED BR TO PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT
BNA AND CKV EARLY TODAY (THROUGH 14Z). AFTER THAT, EXPECT VFR AT ALL
MID STATE TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN OVC
DECK OF ISENTROPICALLY-INDUCED CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA THIS EVENING, AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FORECAST DECK OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
HAVE BASSES AROUND 3500 FT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 211727
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1127 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
STRATUS DECK WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA BY 03Z OR SO.
CIGS WILL INITIALLY BE AT THE VFR LEVELS BUT WILL LOWER WITH
TIME. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS NEAR CSV AFT 06Z. OTW...WE COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE BETWEEN
12Z AND 18Z WITH MODERATE FOG AND IFR CIGS.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED BR TO PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT
BNA AND CKV EARLY TODAY (THROUGH 14Z). AFTER THAT, EXPECT VFR AT ALL
MID STATE TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN OVC
DECK OF ISENTROPICALLY-INDUCED CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA THIS EVENING, AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FORECAST DECK OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
HAVE BASSES AROUND 3500 FT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 211727
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1127 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
STRATUS DECK WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA BY 03Z OR SO.
CIGS WILL INITIALLY BE AT THE VFR LEVELS BUT WILL LOWER WITH
TIME. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS NEAR CSV AFT 06Z. OTW...WE COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE BETWEEN
12Z AND 18Z WITH MODERATE FOG AND IFR CIGS.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED BR TO PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT
BNA AND CKV EARLY TODAY (THROUGH 14Z). AFTER THAT, EXPECT VFR AT ALL
MID STATE TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN OVC
DECK OF ISENTROPICALLY-INDUCED CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA THIS EVENING, AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FORECAST DECK OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
HAVE BASSES AROUND 3500 FT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KMRX 211714
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1214 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS REMAIN ENTRENCHED AT CHA AND TYS...AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE MVFR RANGE AT CHA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH TYS AND TRI WILL BE SCATTERED THIS
EVENING...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MIDNIGHT AS DRIZZLE
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. BUT A LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND MAY BE HELP
KEEP THOSE SITES VFR. CHA IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE IN THAT CATEGORY INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS



000
FXUS64 KMRX 211714
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1214 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS REMAIN ENTRENCHED AT CHA AND TYS...AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE MVFR RANGE AT CHA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH TYS AND TRI WILL BE SCATTERED THIS
EVENING...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MIDNIGHT AS DRIZZLE
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. BUT A LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND MAY BE HELP
KEEP THOSE SITES VFR. CHA IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE IN THAT CATEGORY INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMEG 211612
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1012 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS IS RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE MID SOUTH THIS
MORNING EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF EAST/NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.
TEMPERATURES AS OF 10 AM CST RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE
40S. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IN GREAT SHAPE.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SFC HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS RIDGING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING PROVIDING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO W TN AND N MS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST OVER AR AND MO...SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH ARE PROVIDING LOW CLOUDS FROM MOISTURE
ADVECTION. EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS
LINGERING THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE NW. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RETREAT TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GIVING WAY TO THE
NEXT SYSTEM EARLY THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND
PROVIDE HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER NE MS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE SUNNY
AND BECOME A LITTLE MILDER IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS OVER THE COMING WEEKEND.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

VFR WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
MOVING IN LATE. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTH AND BEGIN INCREASING OVERNIGHT.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 211612
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1012 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS IS RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE MID SOUTH THIS
MORNING EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF EAST/NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.
TEMPERATURES AS OF 10 AM CST RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE
40S. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IN GREAT SHAPE.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SFC HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS RIDGING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING PROVIDING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO W TN AND N MS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST OVER AR AND MO...SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH ARE PROVIDING LOW CLOUDS FROM MOISTURE
ADVECTION. EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS
LINGERING THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE NW. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RETREAT TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GIVING WAY TO THE
NEXT SYSTEM EARLY THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND
PROVIDE HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER NE MS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE SUNNY
AND BECOME A LITTLE MILDER IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS OVER THE COMING WEEKEND.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

VFR WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
MOVING IN LATE. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTH AND BEGIN INCREASING OVERNIGHT.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 211522 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1022 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE TODAY AS THE MODELS HAVE
NOT HANDLED THEM WELL AT ALL...AND HAVE BEEN TOO QUICK TO CLEAR THE
CLOUDS OUT. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO CLEAR CLOUDS OUT OF ALL
AREAS EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
IGNORE THE MODELS FOR THE MOST PART AND JUST TRY TO ADJUST SKY
GRIDS TO CURRENT SATELLITE. TEMPS WILL NEED SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WITH
THE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO HOLD ON IN THE SOUTH AND FULL SUN LIKELY IN
PARTS OF THE NORTH.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 211522 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1022 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE TODAY AS THE MODELS HAVE
NOT HANDLED THEM WELL AT ALL...AND HAVE BEEN TOO QUICK TO CLEAR THE
CLOUDS OUT. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO CLEAR CLOUDS OUT OF ALL
AREAS EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
IGNORE THE MODELS FOR THE MOST PART AND JUST TRY TO ADJUST SKY
GRIDS TO CURRENT SATELLITE. TEMPS WILL NEED SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WITH
THE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO HOLD ON IN THE SOUTH AND FULL SUN LIKELY IN
PARTS OF THE NORTH.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS



000
FXUS64 KMRX 211133
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
633 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA TODAY. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH TONIGHT. THE LINGERING CLOUDS THIS
MORNING EXPECTED TO BREAK UP DURING THE DAY. LATE IN THE PERIOD
WILL BRING MVFR CIGS IN AT CHA AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
AGAIN. WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AT TYS AND TRI AS WELL BUT WILL KEEP
CIGS AT VFR LEVELS. MAY SEE SOME FOG AT TRI LATE. SOME DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AS WELL...BUT WILL KEEP TAFS PRECIP FREE
FOR NOW.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 211133
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
633 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA TODAY. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH TONIGHT. THE LINGERING CLOUDS THIS
MORNING EXPECTED TO BREAK UP DURING THE DAY. LATE IN THE PERIOD
WILL BRING MVFR CIGS IN AT CHA AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
AGAIN. WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AT TYS AND TRI AS WELL BUT WILL KEEP
CIGS AT VFR LEVELS. MAY SEE SOME FOG AT TRI LATE. SOME DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AS WELL...BUT WILL KEEP TAFS PRECIP FREE
FOR NOW.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 211133
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
633 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA TODAY. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH TONIGHT. THE LINGERING CLOUDS THIS
MORNING EXPECTED TO BREAK UP DURING THE DAY. LATE IN THE PERIOD
WILL BRING MVFR CIGS IN AT CHA AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
AGAIN. WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AT TYS AND TRI AS WELL BUT WILL KEEP
CIGS AT VFR LEVELS. MAY SEE SOME FOG AT TRI LATE. SOME DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AS WELL...BUT WILL KEEP TAFS PRECIP FREE
FOR NOW.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 211133
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
633 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA TODAY. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH TONIGHT. THE LINGERING CLOUDS THIS
MORNING EXPECTED TO BREAK UP DURING THE DAY. LATE IN THE PERIOD
WILL BRING MVFR CIGS IN AT CHA AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
AGAIN. WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AT TYS AND TRI AS WELL BUT WILL KEEP
CIGS AT VFR LEVELS. MAY SEE SOME FOG AT TRI LATE. SOME DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AS WELL...BUT WILL KEEP TAFS PRECIP FREE
FOR NOW.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 211121
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
521 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SFC HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS RIDGING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING PROVIDING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO W TN AND N MS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST OVER AR AND MO...SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH ARE PROVIDING LOW CLOUDS FROM MOISTURE
ADVECTION. EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS
LINGERING THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE NW. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RETREAT TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GIVING WAY TO THE
NEXT SYSTEM EARLY THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND
PROVIDE HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER NE MS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE SUNNY
AND BECOME A LITTLE MILDER IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS OVER THE COMING WEEKEND.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

VFR WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
MOVING IN LATE. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTH AND BEGIN INCREASING OVERNIGHT.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 211121
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
521 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SFC HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS RIDGING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING PROVIDING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO W TN AND N MS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST OVER AR AND MO...SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH ARE PROVIDING LOW CLOUDS FROM MOISTURE
ADVECTION. EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS
LINGERING THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE NW. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RETREAT TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GIVING WAY TO THE
NEXT SYSTEM EARLY THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND
PROVIDE HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER NE MS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE SUNNY
AND BECOME A LITTLE MILDER IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS OVER THE COMING WEEKEND.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

VFR WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
MOVING IN LATE. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTH AND BEGIN INCREASING OVERNIGHT.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 211121
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
521 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SFC HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS RIDGING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING PROVIDING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO W TN AND N MS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST OVER AR AND MO...SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH ARE PROVIDING LOW CLOUDS FROM MOISTURE
ADVECTION. EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS
LINGERING THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE NW. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RETREAT TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GIVING WAY TO THE
NEXT SYSTEM EARLY THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND
PROVIDE HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER NE MS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE SUNNY
AND BECOME A LITTLE MILDER IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS OVER THE COMING WEEKEND.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

VFR WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
MOVING IN LATE. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTH AND BEGIN INCREASING OVERNIGHT.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 211121
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
521 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SFC HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS RIDGING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING PROVIDING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO W TN AND N MS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST OVER AR AND MO...SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH ARE PROVIDING LOW CLOUDS FROM MOISTURE
ADVECTION. EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS
LINGERING THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE NW. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RETREAT TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GIVING WAY TO THE
NEXT SYSTEM EARLY THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND
PROVIDE HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER NE MS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE SUNNY
AND BECOME A LITTLE MILDER IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS OVER THE COMING WEEKEND.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

VFR WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
MOVING IN LATE. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTH AND BEGIN INCREASING OVERNIGHT.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 211104
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
504 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED BR TO PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT
BNA AND CKV EARLY TODAY (THROUGH 14Z). AFTER THAT, EXPECT VFR AT ALL
MID STATE TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN OVC
DECK OF ISENTROPICALLY-INDUCED CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA THIS EVENING, AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FORECAST DECK OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
HAVE BASSES AROUND 3500 FT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 211104
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
504 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED BR TO PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT
BNA AND CKV EARLY TODAY (THROUGH 14Z). AFTER THAT, EXPECT VFR AT ALL
MID STATE TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN OVC
DECK OF ISENTROPICALLY-INDUCED CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA THIS EVENING, AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FORECAST DECK OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
HAVE BASSES AROUND 3500 FT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 211104
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
504 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED BR TO PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT
BNA AND CKV EARLY TODAY (THROUGH 14Z). AFTER THAT, EXPECT VFR AT ALL
MID STATE TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN OVC
DECK OF ISENTROPICALLY-INDUCED CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA THIS EVENING, AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FORECAST DECK OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
HAVE BASSES AROUND 3500 FT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 211104
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
504 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED BR TO PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT
BNA AND CKV EARLY TODAY (THROUGH 14Z). AFTER THAT, EXPECT VFR AT ALL
MID STATE TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN OVC
DECK OF ISENTROPICALLY-INDUCED CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA THIS EVENING, AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FORECAST DECK OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
HAVE BASSES AROUND 3500 FT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 211104
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
504 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED BR TO PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT
BNA AND CKV EARLY TODAY (THROUGH 14Z). AFTER THAT, EXPECT VFR AT ALL
MID STATE TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN OVC
DECK OF ISENTROPICALLY-INDUCED CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA THIS EVENING, AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FORECAST DECK OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
HAVE BASSES AROUND 3500 FT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 211104
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
504 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED BR TO PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT
BNA AND CKV EARLY TODAY (THROUGH 14Z). AFTER THAT, EXPECT VFR AT ALL
MID STATE TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN OVC
DECK OF ISENTROPICALLY-INDUCED CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA THIS EVENING, AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FORECAST DECK OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
HAVE BASSES AROUND 3500 FT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KMEG 211008
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
408 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A SFC HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS RIDGING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING PROVIDING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO W TN AND N MS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST OVER AR AND MO...SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH ARE PROVIDING LOW CLOUDS FROM MOISTURE
ADVECTION. EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS
LINGERING THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE NW. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RETREAT TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GIVING WAY TO THE
NEXT SYSTEM EARLY THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND
PROVIDE HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER NE MS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE SUNNY
AND BECOME A LITTLE MILDER IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS OVER THE COMING WEEKEND.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

MVFR CIGS MAY EDGE IN AN OUT OF THE JBR VCNTY OVERNIGHT...NEAR THE
EASTERN EDGE OF AN ELEVATED STRATUS DECK OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU.
OTHERWISE...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 211008
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
408 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A SFC HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS RIDGING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING PROVIDING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO W TN AND N MS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST OVER AR AND MO...SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH ARE PROVIDING LOW CLOUDS FROM MOISTURE
ADVECTION. EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS
LINGERING THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE NW. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RETREAT TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GIVING WAY TO THE
NEXT SYSTEM EARLY THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND
PROVIDE HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER NE MS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE SUNNY
AND BECOME A LITTLE MILDER IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS OVER THE COMING WEEKEND.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

MVFR CIGS MAY EDGE IN AN OUT OF THE JBR VCNTY OVERNIGHT...NEAR THE
EASTERN EDGE OF AN ELEVATED STRATUS DECK OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU.
OTHERWISE...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 211008
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
408 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A SFC HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS RIDGING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING PROVIDING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO W TN AND N MS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST OVER AR AND MO...SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH ARE PROVIDING LOW CLOUDS FROM MOISTURE
ADVECTION. EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS
LINGERING THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE NW. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RETREAT TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GIVING WAY TO THE
NEXT SYSTEM EARLY THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND
PROVIDE HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER NE MS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE SUNNY
AND BECOME A LITTLE MILDER IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS OVER THE COMING WEEKEND.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

MVFR CIGS MAY EDGE IN AN OUT OF THE JBR VCNTY OVERNIGHT...NEAR THE
EASTERN EDGE OF AN ELEVATED STRATUS DECK OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU.
OTHERWISE...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 210906
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
400 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
INTO THE AREA TODAY.  EXPECT THE REMAINING CLOUD COVER TO BREAK UP
ALLOWING DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY.  WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.  BETTER LIFT SHOULD STAY TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST.  MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND RATHER SHALLOW...SO
WILL JUST CARRY PATCHY DRIZZLE AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
LIGHT RAIN.  THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST ALL LIQUID PRECIP FOR TONIGHT.
JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAV TEMPS...INCLUDING TWEAKING MOST MIN
TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR TONIGHT GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS STILL INDICATE SUNDAY
NIGHT SHORT WAVE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST
ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A DRIER AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A BREAK OR TWO
OF SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE ESPECIALLY WEST. WILL BE AWAITING THE
STRENGTHENING MIDDLE AMERICA STORM SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WHICH FEATURES A STRENGTHENING AND MOISTENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS OCCURS THE WIND FIELD WILL RAMP
UP RATHER DECENTLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION MONDAY NIGHT SO THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS. THE STRONG
WIND COMPONENT ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL LEAD TO A NICE
DOWNSLOPING PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST
AND PART OF CENTRAL EAST TENNESSEE WHERE THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
LOWER DUE TO THE TYPICAL WARMING AND DRYING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
DUE TO THE FORCED FLOW OVER THE TERRAIN. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL
FORM OUT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND THE FRONT WILL
TAKE ITS SWEET TIME MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS WHICH WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE SYSTEM`S WARM SECTOR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SO ADDED THE CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN THE
EXPECTED WIDESPREAD PATTERN OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. THEREFORE ANY TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WEDNESDAY EVENING. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT THE SNOW EVENT DOESN`T
LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN
THE GREAT VALLEY WITH A LITTLE BETTER POSSIBILITY OF SNOWFALL IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY ABOVE 3000 FEET WHERE SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING THROUGH LATE MORNING ON CHRISTMAS DAY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE BUT THE PRECIP SHOULD BE
OVER IN THIS AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE SOME SUNSHINE RETURNING ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TO A CERTAIN
DEGREE FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SO WE WILL
HAVE TO WAIT ON FUTURE RUNS TO GET A BETTER IDEA FOR THIS PERIOD.
FOR NOW ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ON THE APPROACH FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH MOISTENING AND INCREASING LIFT WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             53  40  56  46 /  10  20  20  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  50  38  55  43 /   0  20  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       49  37  55  44 /   0  20  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              47  35  51  37 /   0  30  40   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 210906
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
400 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
INTO THE AREA TODAY.  EXPECT THE REMAINING CLOUD COVER TO BREAK UP
ALLOWING DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY.  WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.  BETTER LIFT SHOULD STAY TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST.  MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND RATHER SHALLOW...SO
WILL JUST CARRY PATCHY DRIZZLE AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
LIGHT RAIN.  THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST ALL LIQUID PRECIP FOR TONIGHT.
JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAV TEMPS...INCLUDING TWEAKING MOST MIN
TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR TONIGHT GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS STILL INDICATE SUNDAY
NIGHT SHORT WAVE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST
ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A DRIER AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A BREAK OR TWO
OF SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE ESPECIALLY WEST. WILL BE AWAITING THE
STRENGTHENING MIDDLE AMERICA STORM SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WHICH FEATURES A STRENGTHENING AND MOISTENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS OCCURS THE WIND FIELD WILL RAMP
UP RATHER DECENTLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION MONDAY NIGHT SO THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS. THE STRONG
WIND COMPONENT ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL LEAD TO A NICE
DOWNSLOPING PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST
AND PART OF CENTRAL EAST TENNESSEE WHERE THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
LOWER DUE TO THE TYPICAL WARMING AND DRYING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
DUE TO THE FORCED FLOW OVER THE TERRAIN. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL
FORM OUT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND THE FRONT WILL
TAKE ITS SWEET TIME MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS WHICH WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE SYSTEM`S WARM SECTOR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SO ADDED THE CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN THE
EXPECTED WIDESPREAD PATTERN OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. THEREFORE ANY TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WEDNESDAY EVENING. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT THE SNOW EVENT DOESN`T
LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN
THE GREAT VALLEY WITH A LITTLE BETTER POSSIBILITY OF SNOWFALL IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY ABOVE 3000 FEET WHERE SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING THROUGH LATE MORNING ON CHRISTMAS DAY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE BUT THE PRECIP SHOULD BE
OVER IN THIS AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE SOME SUNSHINE RETURNING ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TO A CERTAIN
DEGREE FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SO WE WILL
HAVE TO WAIT ON FUTURE RUNS TO GET A BETTER IDEA FOR THIS PERIOD.
FOR NOW ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ON THE APPROACH FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH MOISTENING AND INCREASING LIFT WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             53  40  56  46 /  10  20  20  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  50  38  55  43 /   0  20  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       49  37  55  44 /   0  20  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              47  35  51  37 /   0  30  40   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 210825
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
225 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WAS
BRINGING CLEAR AND CHILLY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
20S WITH CALM WINDS...AND SOME PATCHY FOG HAD DEVELOPED MAINLY
OVER LAKES AND RIVERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST TODAY ALLOWING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL
BE SUNNY MOST OF THE DAY...WITH SOME CLOUDS COMING UP FROM THE
SOUTH LATE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS AND APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS.
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BRING MILDER AIR.

THE DEEPENING TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY WILL DRAW ABUNDANT
MOISTURE INTO THE MID STATE FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 1.25 INCHES OR
+2SD...INDICATING A GOOD SOAKING RAINFALL EVENT...PERHAPS MORE
THAN AN INCH IN SOME AREAS. SOME THUNDER WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH AT
LEAST MODEST CAPE DEVELOPING.

LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE TENDING TO SLOW DOWN THE APPROACH OF THIS
SYSTEM...SO NOW IT LOOKS LIKE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL BRING THE HIGHEST POPS. CHRISTMAS EVE TEMPS WILL ALSO
BE SLOWER TO COOL THAN WE INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT
WE STILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX LATER CHRISTMAS
EVE. NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED HERE...BUT TRAVELERS TO THE
NORTH OF TN AND MOUNTAINS WILL WANT TO MONITOR UPDATED FORECASTS.

CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF CHILLY
AIR.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      51  40  56  50 /   0  10  20  40
CLARKSVILLE    50  38  55  50 /   0  10  20  60
CROSSVILLE     48  38  52  46 /   0  20  20  20
COLUMBIA       52  41  56  51 /   0  20  20  40
LAWRENCEBURG   51  42  55  51 /   0  20  20  50
WAVERLY        50  39  55  51 /   0  10  20  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 210825
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
225 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WAS
BRINGING CLEAR AND CHILLY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
20S WITH CALM WINDS...AND SOME PATCHY FOG HAD DEVELOPED MAINLY
OVER LAKES AND RIVERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST TODAY ALLOWING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL
BE SUNNY MOST OF THE DAY...WITH SOME CLOUDS COMING UP FROM THE
SOUTH LATE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS AND APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS.
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BRING MILDER AIR.

THE DEEPENING TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY WILL DRAW ABUNDANT
MOISTURE INTO THE MID STATE FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 1.25 INCHES OR
+2SD...INDICATING A GOOD SOAKING RAINFALL EVENT...PERHAPS MORE
THAN AN INCH IN SOME AREAS. SOME THUNDER WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH AT
LEAST MODEST CAPE DEVELOPING.

LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE TENDING TO SLOW DOWN THE APPROACH OF THIS
SYSTEM...SO NOW IT LOOKS LIKE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL BRING THE HIGHEST POPS. CHRISTMAS EVE TEMPS WILL ALSO
BE SLOWER TO COOL THAN WE INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT
WE STILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX LATER CHRISTMAS
EVE. NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED HERE...BUT TRAVELERS TO THE
NORTH OF TN AND MOUNTAINS WILL WANT TO MONITOR UPDATED FORECASTS.

CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF CHILLY
AIR.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      51  40  56  50 /   0  10  20  40
CLARKSVILLE    50  38  55  50 /   0  10  20  60
CROSSVILLE     48  38  52  46 /   0  20  20  20
COLUMBIA       52  41  56  51 /   0  20  20  40
LAWRENCEBURG   51  42  55  51 /   0  20  20  50
WAVERLY        50  39  55  51 /   0  10  20  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 210532
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1232 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA TODAY. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
TO LINGER AT TRI UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE...WILL GO WITH MVFR TO IFR
LEVELS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER CONDITIONS. CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT
FOG AT TYS SO WILL KEEP VFR THERE. LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL BRING
MVFR CIGS IN AT CHA AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 210532
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1232 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA TODAY. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
TO LINGER AT TRI UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE...WILL GO WITH MVFR TO IFR
LEVELS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER CONDITIONS. CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT
FOG AT TYS SO WILL KEEP VFR THERE. LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL BRING
MVFR CIGS IN AT CHA AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 210531 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1131 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...

CURRENTLY...TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN QUICKLY INTO THE LOW AND MID
30S ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING INTO THE
MIDSOUTH...NEAR IDEAL CONDITIONS EXIST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
RADIATIONAL COMPONENT TO THE COOLING TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS WHERE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD
DECK EXISTS. GUIDANCE ISN`T CONSISTENT IN ITS HANDLING OF THIS
DECK BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT THESE AREAS FROM COOLING
AS RAPIDLY. A QUICK WARMUP IS EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING AFTER
SUNRISE BUT A COLD MORNING IS EXPECTED EARLY.

TVT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A 1025 MB
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS RESULTED IN PARTLY SUNNY SUNNY SKIES
NORTH OF I-40...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
SUNNY. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER TO THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT.
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW RETURNING TO THE MID
SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY MONDAY APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL AND
WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETTER OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL
RESIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PRODUCE
A POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...(CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS
SUGGEST SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE MID SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

MVFR CIGS MAY EDGE IN AN OUT OF THE JBR VCNTY OVERNIGHT...NEAR THE
EASTERN EDGE OF AN ELEVATED STRATUS DECK OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU.
OTHERWISE...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 210531 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1131 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...

CURRENTLY...TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN QUICKLY INTO THE LOW AND MID
30S ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING INTO THE
MIDSOUTH...NEAR IDEAL CONDITIONS EXIST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
RADIATIONAL COMPONENT TO THE COOLING TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS WHERE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD
DECK EXISTS. GUIDANCE ISN`T CONSISTENT IN ITS HANDLING OF THIS
DECK BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT THESE AREAS FROM COOLING
AS RAPIDLY. A QUICK WARMUP IS EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING AFTER
SUNRISE BUT A COLD MORNING IS EXPECTED EARLY.

TVT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A 1025 MB
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS RESULTED IN PARTLY SUNNY SUNNY SKIES
NORTH OF I-40...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
SUNNY. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER TO THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT.
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW RETURNING TO THE MID
SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY MONDAY APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL AND
WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETTER OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL
RESIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PRODUCE
A POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...(CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS
SUGGEST SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE MID SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

MVFR CIGS MAY EDGE IN AN OUT OF THE JBR VCNTY OVERNIGHT...NEAR THE
EASTERN EDGE OF AN ELEVATED STRATUS DECK OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU.
OTHERWISE...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 210531 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1131 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...

CURRENTLY...TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN QUICKLY INTO THE LOW AND MID
30S ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING INTO THE
MIDSOUTH...NEAR IDEAL CONDITIONS EXIST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
RADIATIONAL COMPONENT TO THE COOLING TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS WHERE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD
DECK EXISTS. GUIDANCE ISN`T CONSISTENT IN ITS HANDLING OF THIS
DECK BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT THESE AREAS FROM COOLING
AS RAPIDLY. A QUICK WARMUP IS EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING AFTER
SUNRISE BUT A COLD MORNING IS EXPECTED EARLY.

TVT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A 1025 MB
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS RESULTED IN PARTLY SUNNY SUNNY SKIES
NORTH OF I-40...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
SUNNY. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER TO THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT.
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW RETURNING TO THE MID
SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY MONDAY APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL AND
WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETTER OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL
RESIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PRODUCE
A POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...(CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS
SUGGEST SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE MID SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

MVFR CIGS MAY EDGE IN AN OUT OF THE JBR VCNTY OVERNIGHT...NEAR THE
EASTERN EDGE OF AN ELEVATED STRATUS DECK OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU.
OTHERWISE...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 210531 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1131 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...

CURRENTLY...TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN QUICKLY INTO THE LOW AND MID
30S ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING INTO THE
MIDSOUTH...NEAR IDEAL CONDITIONS EXIST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
RADIATIONAL COMPONENT TO THE COOLING TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS WHERE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD
DECK EXISTS. GUIDANCE ISN`T CONSISTENT IN ITS HANDLING OF THIS
DECK BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT THESE AREAS FROM COOLING
AS RAPIDLY. A QUICK WARMUP IS EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING AFTER
SUNRISE BUT A COLD MORNING IS EXPECTED EARLY.

TVT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A 1025 MB
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS RESULTED IN PARTLY SUNNY SUNNY SKIES
NORTH OF I-40...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
SUNNY. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER TO THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT.
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW RETURNING TO THE MID
SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY MONDAY APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL AND
WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETTER OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL
RESIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PRODUCE
A POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...(CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS
SUGGEST SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE MID SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

MVFR CIGS MAY EDGE IN AN OUT OF THE JBR VCNTY OVERNIGHT...NEAR THE
EASTERN EDGE OF AN ELEVATED STRATUS DECK OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU.
OTHERWISE...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 210517
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1117 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE RIDGE SLIPS EASTWARD WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON SUNDAY AND MOISTURE GETS
PULLED NORTHWARD FROM GULF REGION AS SOUTHELY WINDS INCREASE
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS MEANS CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT MOISTURE IS SHALLOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 210333
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
933 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS UNDERWAY THIS EVENING
WITH MOST TEMPERATURES DROPPING LIKE A ROCK. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
OUT ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOW ON TOP OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, HENCE THE PERFECT CONDITIONS. A FEW READINGS, MAINLY
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PLATEAU AND HIGHLAND RIM, HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED TO OR BELOW FORECAST MINIMUMS, SO HAVE RE-WORKED
THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE GRID ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED CLOUD
COVER ALONG THE PLATEAU WHERE WE PREVIOUSLY HAD PARTLY CLOUDY.
FORECAST UPDATE IS FORTHCOMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DRY AIR MASS OUT OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL PULL
SHALLOW MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM GULF REGION SUNDAY EVENING CLOUDING
THINGS UP WITH A LOW DECK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
PICK UP IN SPEED AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




000
FXUS64 KOHX 210333
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
933 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS UNDERWAY THIS EVENING
WITH MOST TEMPERATURES DROPPING LIKE A ROCK. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
OUT ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOW ON TOP OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, HENCE THE PERFECT CONDITIONS. A FEW READINGS, MAINLY
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PLATEAU AND HIGHLAND RIM, HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED TO OR BELOW FORECAST MINIMUMS, SO HAVE RE-WORKED
THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE GRID ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED CLOUD
COVER ALONG THE PLATEAU WHERE WE PREVIOUSLY HAD PARTLY CLOUDY.
FORECAST UPDATE IS FORTHCOMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DRY AIR MASS OUT OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL PULL
SHALLOW MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM GULF REGION SUNDAY EVENING CLOUDING
THINGS UP WITH A LOW DECK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
PICK UP IN SPEED AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 210333
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
933 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS UNDERWAY THIS EVENING
WITH MOST TEMPERATURES DROPPING LIKE A ROCK. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
OUT ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOW ON TOP OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, HENCE THE PERFECT CONDITIONS. A FEW READINGS, MAINLY
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PLATEAU AND HIGHLAND RIM, HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED TO OR BELOW FORECAST MINIMUMS, SO HAVE RE-WORKED
THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE GRID ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED CLOUD
COVER ALONG THE PLATEAU WHERE WE PREVIOUSLY HAD PARTLY CLOUDY.
FORECAST UPDATE IS FORTHCOMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DRY AIR MASS OUT OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL PULL
SHALLOW MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM GULF REGION SUNDAY EVENING CLOUDING
THINGS UP WITH A LOW DECK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
PICK UP IN SPEED AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 210333
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
933 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS UNDERWAY THIS EVENING
WITH MOST TEMPERATURES DROPPING LIKE A ROCK. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
OUT ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOW ON TOP OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, HENCE THE PERFECT CONDITIONS. A FEW READINGS, MAINLY
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PLATEAU AND HIGHLAND RIM, HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED TO OR BELOW FORECAST MINIMUMS, SO HAVE RE-WORKED
THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE GRID ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED CLOUD
COVER ALONG THE PLATEAU WHERE WE PREVIOUSLY HAD PARTLY CLOUDY.
FORECAST UPDATE IS FORTHCOMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DRY AIR MASS OUT OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL PULL
SHALLOW MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM GULF REGION SUNDAY EVENING CLOUDING
THINGS UP WITH A LOW DECK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
PICK UP IN SPEED AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 210333
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
933 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS UNDERWAY THIS EVENING
WITH MOST TEMPERATURES DROPPING LIKE A ROCK. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
OUT ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOW ON TOP OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, HENCE THE PERFECT CONDITIONS. A FEW READINGS, MAINLY
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PLATEAU AND HIGHLAND RIM, HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED TO OR BELOW FORECAST MINIMUMS, SO HAVE RE-WORKED
THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE GRID ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED CLOUD
COVER ALONG THE PLATEAU WHERE WE PREVIOUSLY HAD PARTLY CLOUDY.
FORECAST UPDATE IS FORTHCOMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DRY AIR MASS OUT OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL PULL
SHALLOW MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM GULF REGION SUNDAY EVENING CLOUDING
THINGS UP WITH A LOW DECK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
PICK UP IN SPEED AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 210333
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
933 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS UNDERWAY THIS EVENING
WITH MOST TEMPERATURES DROPPING LIKE A ROCK. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
OUT ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOW ON TOP OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, HENCE THE PERFECT CONDITIONS. A FEW READINGS, MAINLY
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PLATEAU AND HIGHLAND RIM, HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED TO OR BELOW FORECAST MINIMUMS, SO HAVE RE-WORKED
THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE GRID ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED CLOUD
COVER ALONG THE PLATEAU WHERE WE PREVIOUSLY HAD PARTLY CLOUDY.
FORECAST UPDATE IS FORTHCOMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DRY AIR MASS OUT OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL PULL
SHALLOW MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM GULF REGION SUNDAY EVENING CLOUDING
THINGS UP WITH A LOW DECK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
PICK UP IN SPEED AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KMEG 210244
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
844 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...

CURRENTLY...TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN QUICKLY INTO THE LOW AND MID
30S ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING INTO THE
MIDSOUTH...NEAR IDEAL CONDITIONS EXIST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
RADIATIONAL COMPONENT TO THE COOLING TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS WHERE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD
DECK EXISTS. GUIDANCE ISN`T CONSISTENT IN ITS HANDLING OF THIS
DECK BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT THESE AREAS FROM COOLING
AS RAPIDLY. A QUICK WARMUP IS EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING AFTER
SUNRISE BUT A COLD MORNING IS EXPECTED EARLY.

TVT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A 1025 MB
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS RESULTED IN PARTLY SUNNY SUNNY SKIES
NORTH OF I-40...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
SUNNY. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER TO THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT.
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW RETURNING TO THE MID
SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY MONDAY APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL AND
WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETTER OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL
RESIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PRODUCE
A POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...(CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS
SUGGEST SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE MID SOUTH.

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MVFR CIGS NORTH OF JBR POSSIBLY DRIFTING
SOUTH AND SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG AT MKL TOWARD 12Z.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 210244
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
844 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...

CURRENTLY...TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN QUICKLY INTO THE LOW AND MID
30S ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING INTO THE
MIDSOUTH...NEAR IDEAL CONDITIONS EXIST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
RADIATIONAL COMPONENT TO THE COOLING TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS WHERE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD
DECK EXISTS. GUIDANCE ISN`T CONSISTENT IN ITS HANDLING OF THIS
DECK BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT THESE AREAS FROM COOLING
AS RAPIDLY. A QUICK WARMUP IS EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING AFTER
SUNRISE BUT A COLD MORNING IS EXPECTED EARLY.

TVT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A 1025 MB
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS RESULTED IN PARTLY SUNNY SUNNY SKIES
NORTH OF I-40...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
SUNNY. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER TO THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT.
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW RETURNING TO THE MID
SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY MONDAY APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL AND
WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETTER OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL
RESIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PRODUCE
A POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...(CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS
SUGGEST SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE MID SOUTH.

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MVFR CIGS NORTH OF JBR POSSIBLY DRIFTING
SOUTH AND SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG AT MKL TOWARD 12Z.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 210244
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
844 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...

CURRENTLY...TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN QUICKLY INTO THE LOW AND MID
30S ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING INTO THE
MIDSOUTH...NEAR IDEAL CONDITIONS EXIST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
RADIATIONAL COMPONENT TO THE COOLING TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS WHERE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD
DECK EXISTS. GUIDANCE ISN`T CONSISTENT IN ITS HANDLING OF THIS
DECK BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT THESE AREAS FROM COOLING
AS RAPIDLY. A QUICK WARMUP IS EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING AFTER
SUNRISE BUT A COLD MORNING IS EXPECTED EARLY.

TVT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A 1025 MB
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS RESULTED IN PARTLY SUNNY SUNNY SKIES
NORTH OF I-40...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
SUNNY. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER TO THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT.
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW RETURNING TO THE MID
SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY MONDAY APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL AND
WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETTER OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL
RESIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PRODUCE
A POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...(CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS
SUGGEST SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE MID SOUTH.

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MVFR CIGS NORTH OF JBR POSSIBLY DRIFTING
SOUTH AND SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG AT MKL TOWARD 12Z.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 210244
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
844 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...

CURRENTLY...TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN QUICKLY INTO THE LOW AND MID
30S ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING INTO THE
MIDSOUTH...NEAR IDEAL CONDITIONS EXIST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
RADIATIONAL COMPONENT TO THE COOLING TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS WHERE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD
DECK EXISTS. GUIDANCE ISN`T CONSISTENT IN ITS HANDLING OF THIS
DECK BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT THESE AREAS FROM COOLING
AS RAPIDLY. A QUICK WARMUP IS EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING AFTER
SUNRISE BUT A COLD MORNING IS EXPECTED EARLY.

TVT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A 1025 MB
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS RESULTED IN PARTLY SUNNY SUNNY SKIES
NORTH OF I-40...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
SUNNY. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER TO THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT.
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW RETURNING TO THE MID
SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY MONDAY APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL AND
WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETTER OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL
RESIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PRODUCE
A POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...(CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS
SUGGEST SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE MID SOUTH.

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MVFR CIGS NORTH OF JBR POSSIBLY DRIFTING
SOUTH AND SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG AT MKL TOWARD 12Z.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 210242
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
942 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE JUST TO ADJUST A FEW TEMP VALUES AND INCREASE CLOUDS
AS THEY`RE SLOWER TO RETREAT. STILL THINK THAT FOG IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             33  53  41  56 /   0  10  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  31  50  38  55 /   0  10  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  50  38  55 /   0   0  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              30  48  35  51 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM



000
FXUS64 KMRX 210242
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
942 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE JUST TO ADJUST A FEW TEMP VALUES AND INCREASE CLOUDS
AS THEY`RE SLOWER TO RETREAT. STILL THINK THAT FOG IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             33  53  41  56 /   0  10  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  31  50  38  55 /   0  10  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  50  38  55 /   0   0  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              30  48  35  51 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM



000
FXUS64 KMRX 210242
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
942 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE JUST TO ADJUST A FEW TEMP VALUES AND INCREASE CLOUDS
AS THEY`RE SLOWER TO RETREAT. STILL THINK THAT FOG IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             33  53  41  56 /   0  10  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  31  50  38  55 /   0  10  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  50  38  55 /   0   0  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              30  48  35  51 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM



000
FXUS64 KMRX 210242
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
942 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE JUST TO ADJUST A FEW TEMP VALUES AND INCREASE CLOUDS
AS THEY`RE SLOWER TO RETREAT. STILL THINK THAT FOG IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             33  53  41  56 /   0  10  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  31  50  38  55 /   0  10  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  50  38  55 /   0   0  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              30  48  35  51 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM



000
FXUS64 KOHX 210013
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
613 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DRY AIR MASS OUT OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL PULL
SHALLOW MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM GULF REGION SUNDAY EVENING CLOUDING
THINGS UP WITH A LOW DECK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
PICK UP IN SPEED AFTER 00Z.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 210013
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
613 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DRY AIR MASS OUT OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL PULL
SHALLOW MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM GULF REGION SUNDAY EVENING CLOUDING
THINGS UP WITH A LOW DECK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
PICK UP IN SPEED AFTER 00Z.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 210013
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
613 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DRY AIR MASS OUT OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL PULL
SHALLOW MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM GULF REGION SUNDAY EVENING CLOUDING
THINGS UP WITH A LOW DECK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
PICK UP IN SPEED AFTER 00Z.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 210013
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
613 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DRY AIR MASS OUT OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL PULL
SHALLOW MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM GULF REGION SUNDAY EVENING CLOUDING
THINGS UP WITH A LOW DECK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
PICK UP IN SPEED AFTER 00Z.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KMEG 202334 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
534 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A 1025 MB
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS RESULTED IN PARTLY SUNNY SUNNY SKIES
NORTH OF I-40...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
SUNNY. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER TO THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT.
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW RETURNING TO THE MID
SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY MONDAY APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL AND
WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETTER OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL
RESIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PRODUCE
A POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...(CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS
SUGGEST SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE MID SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MVFR CIGS NORTH OF JBR POSSIBLY DRIFTING
SOUTH AND SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG AT MKL TOWARD 12Z.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 202334 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
534 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A 1025 MB
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS RESULTED IN PARTLY SUNNY SUNNY SKIES
NORTH OF I-40...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
SUNNY. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER TO THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT.
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW RETURNING TO THE MID
SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY MONDAY APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL AND
WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETTER OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL
RESIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PRODUCE
A POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...(CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS
SUGGEST SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE MID SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MVFR CIGS NORTH OF JBR POSSIBLY DRIFTING
SOUTH AND SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG AT MKL TOWARD 12Z.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 202332
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
632 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...MID LEVEL CEILINGS ARE TRYING TO CLEAR OUT
ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THEY ARE STRUGGLING TO. BELIEVE THERE ARE 2
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS TONIGHT. 1...CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND KTYS AND
ESPECIALLY KTRI GET IMPACTED BY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. 2...CLOUDS
REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND KEEP TEMPS UP AND FOG STRUGGLES TO FORM.
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE CLOUDS CLEARING OUT AND CONTINUED MENTION
OF FOG IN THE TAFS. WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION TO SEE IF CLOUDS ARE
ABLE TO MOVE ON OUT. REGARDLESS, SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES AROUND 15Z AND AFTERWARDS TOMORROW.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM



000
FXUS64 KOHX 202205
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
405 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES WILL ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TO
DECREASE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM INTO THE LOW 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGS LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE DAKOTAS AND STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR PWAT VALUES TO APPROACH 1.27
INCHES AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S.
MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL INDICATING
DECENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY.
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 65 AND IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE WARMEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
RAPIDLY COOL OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA BEFORE MIDNIGHT
AND CONTINUE EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...CONDITIONS REMAIN WARM ENOUGH
THROUGH NOON ON WEDNESDAY TO KEEP ALL PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM IN
LIQUID FORM. HOWEVER SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 65
COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES ON CHRISTMAS EVE...AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL QUICKLY DROP...ALLOWING FOR RAIN
TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...THEN TO ALL SNOW AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACH FREEZING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANY LINGERING PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO HAVE EXITED THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON THURSDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY).
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS WILL COME IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      28  52  41  56 /   0  05  10  20
CLARKSVILLE    26  51  39  55 /  05  05  10  20
CROSSVILLE     28  49  38  52 /   0  05  20  10
COLUMBIA       29  53  42  56 /   0  05  20  20
LAWRENCEBURG   30  53  41  56 /   0  05  20  20
WAVERLY        28  51  40  56 /   0  05  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11





000
FXUS64 KMEG 202031
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
231 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A 1025 MB
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS RESULTED IN PARTLY SUNNY SUNNY SKIES
NORTH OF I-40...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
SUNNY. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER TO THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT.
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW RETURNING TO THE MID
SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY MONDAY APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL AND
WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETTER OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL
RESIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PRODUCE
A POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS
SUGGEST SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE MID SOUTH.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z CYCLE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIGHT WINDS FROM THE EAST.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 202022
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
322 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING
FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOST OF THE TN VALLEY SHOULD BE
CLEAR BEFORE MIDNIGHT IF THE TREND CONTINUES AND IF THE HRRR IS
ACCURATE. WITH THE EXPECTED CLEARING AND CALM WINDS...CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FOG TONIGHT. CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES ARE
ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE NORTH...SO WILL MENTION PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG
THERE AS WELL AS SW NC. FOG SHOULD BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE DUE TO THE
LOW SUN ANGLE AND WEAK MIXING TOMORROW MORNING. THE REST OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING LATE IN THE
DAY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM NOW OVER TX WILL BE
LIFTING E-NE AND CROSSING OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH THE
JET POSITIONED FROM SOUTHERN AL TO THE NC COAST...THE MAJORITY OF
LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE EAST OF OUR AREA. THE NAM
PULLS MORE MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA THAN THE GFS...BUT EVEN THE NAM
SHOWS THIS MOISTURE MAINLY BELOW THE -10C LEVEL...SUGGESTING THAT
DRIZZLE IS MORE LIKELY THAN MEASURABLE RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...WILL
CUT BACK POPS TO A CHANCE EAST TO NOTHING WEST...BUT MENTIONING
DRIZZLE EVERYWHERE. QPF WILL BE REDUCED AS WELL...TO NO MORE THAN A
TENTH IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN ALL THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ALL LIQUID PRECIP. THE TROUGH PASSAGE SHOULD
BRING AN END TO ANY RAIN/DRIZZLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...QUITE THE ACTIVE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYSTEM COMING IN FOR CHRISTMAS THAT
WILL BRING...RAIN...MAYBE A FEW STORMS...WIND...AND PERHAPS SNOW.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY HEIGHTS WILL BE QUICKLY BUILDING OUT AHEAD
OF A DEEP TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DAY TO BE UNSEASONABLE
WARM. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
AND DEEP TROUGH IS ON OUR DOORSTEP BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DID DECIDE
TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM KNOXVILLE SOUTH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. CAPE IS VERY WEAK BUT SHEAR
AND HELICITY ARE ROBUST...IN LARGE PART DUE TO A STRONG 850MB JET OF
40 TO 50 KTS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS
FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BUT DID WANT TO MENTION A STORM
OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND STRONG LIFT WILL LEAD TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MORE SO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AREAS. CURRENT GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES RANGING FROM
1.40 TO 1.20 INCHES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS PUTS US AT 2SD ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. I DON`T THINK FLOODING WILL BE A
CONCERN THOUGH BECAUSE OF HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING. SO NOW
THAT WE HAVE TALKED ABOUT RAIN AND STORMS...LET`S TALK ABOUT SNOW.

CHRISTMAS EVE IS LOOKING TO BE RATHER NASTY WITH THE DEEP TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CONTINUES WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH BY
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EXPECT
RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH BREEZY
WINDS. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE
LEFT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM FOR SEVERAL DAYS OUT BUT HAVE NOT BEEN WITH THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. THE LATEST FEW MODEL RUNS OF THE ECMW AND THE
GFS ARE TRENDING THE LOW FURTHER TO OUR WEST. THIS MEANS THAT THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE PASSED OFF TO OUR EAST BEFORE IT GETS
COLD ENOUGH TO SNOW BACK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS LIKE OUR
SNOW WILL BE IN THE FORM OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. THE CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SNOW
LINGERING THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. MOST OF THE PRECIP DURING
THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY GET AN INCH OR TWO. AGAIN...ALL OF
THE ABOVE DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT THIS IS HOW IT`S
LOOKING FOR NOW.

THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS ON THURSDAY...CHRISTMAS DAY...AS IT RACES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WEAKER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THAT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE AREA.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             33  53  41  56 /   0  10  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  31  50  38  55 /   0  10  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  50  38  55 /   0   0  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              30  48  35  51 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 202022
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
322 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING
FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOST OF THE TN VALLEY SHOULD BE
CLEAR BEFORE MIDNIGHT IF THE TREND CONTINUES AND IF THE HRRR IS
ACCURATE. WITH THE EXPECTED CLEARING AND CALM WINDS...CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FOG TONIGHT. CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES ARE
ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE NORTH...SO WILL MENTION PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG
THERE AS WELL AS SW NC. FOG SHOULD BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE DUE TO THE
LOW SUN ANGLE AND WEAK MIXING TOMORROW MORNING. THE REST OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING LATE IN THE
DAY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM NOW OVER TX WILL BE
LIFTING E-NE AND CROSSING OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH THE
JET POSITIONED FROM SOUTHERN AL TO THE NC COAST...THE MAJORITY OF
LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE EAST OF OUR AREA. THE NAM
PULLS MORE MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA THAN THE GFS...BUT EVEN THE NAM
SHOWS THIS MOISTURE MAINLY BELOW THE -10C LEVEL...SUGGESTING THAT
DRIZZLE IS MORE LIKELY THAN MEASURABLE RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...WILL
CUT BACK POPS TO A CHANCE EAST TO NOTHING WEST...BUT MENTIONING
DRIZZLE EVERYWHERE. QPF WILL BE REDUCED AS WELL...TO NO MORE THAN A
TENTH IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN ALL THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ALL LIQUID PRECIP. THE TROUGH PASSAGE SHOULD
BRING AN END TO ANY RAIN/DRIZZLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...QUITE THE ACTIVE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYSTEM COMING IN FOR CHRISTMAS THAT
WILL BRING...RAIN...MAYBE A FEW STORMS...WIND...AND PERHAPS SNOW.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY HEIGHTS WILL BE QUICKLY BUILDING OUT AHEAD
OF A DEEP TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DAY TO BE UNSEASONABLE
WARM. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
AND DEEP TROUGH IS ON OUR DOORSTEP BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DID DECIDE
TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM KNOXVILLE SOUTH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. CAPE IS VERY WEAK BUT SHEAR
AND HELICITY ARE ROBUST...IN LARGE PART DUE TO A STRONG 850MB JET OF
40 TO 50 KTS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS
FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BUT DID WANT TO MENTION A STORM
OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND STRONG LIFT WILL LEAD TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MORE SO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AREAS. CURRENT GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES RANGING FROM
1.40 TO 1.20 INCHES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS PUTS US AT 2SD ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. I DON`T THINK FLOODING WILL BE A
CONCERN THOUGH BECAUSE OF HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING. SO NOW
THAT WE HAVE TALKED ABOUT RAIN AND STORMS...LET`S TALK ABOUT SNOW.

CHRISTMAS EVE IS LOOKING TO BE RATHER NASTY WITH THE DEEP TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CONTINUES WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH BY
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EXPECT
RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH BREEZY
WINDS. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE
LEFT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM FOR SEVERAL DAYS OUT BUT HAVE NOT BEEN WITH THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. THE LATEST FEW MODEL RUNS OF THE ECMW AND THE
GFS ARE TRENDING THE LOW FURTHER TO OUR WEST. THIS MEANS THAT THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE PASSED OFF TO OUR EAST BEFORE IT GETS
COLD ENOUGH TO SNOW BACK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS LIKE OUR
SNOW WILL BE IN THE FORM OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. THE CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SNOW
LINGERING THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. MOST OF THE PRECIP DURING
THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY GET AN INCH OR TWO. AGAIN...ALL OF
THE ABOVE DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT THIS IS HOW IT`S
LOOKING FOR NOW.

THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS ON THURSDAY...CHRISTMAS DAY...AS IT RACES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WEAKER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THAT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE AREA.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             33  53  41  56 /   0  10  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  31  50  38  55 /   0  10  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  50  38  55 /   0   0  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              30  48  35  51 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 202022
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
322 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING
FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOST OF THE TN VALLEY SHOULD BE
CLEAR BEFORE MIDNIGHT IF THE TREND CONTINUES AND IF THE HRRR IS
ACCURATE. WITH THE EXPECTED CLEARING AND CALM WINDS...CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FOG TONIGHT. CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES ARE
ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE NORTH...SO WILL MENTION PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG
THERE AS WELL AS SW NC. FOG SHOULD BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE DUE TO THE
LOW SUN ANGLE AND WEAK MIXING TOMORROW MORNING. THE REST OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING LATE IN THE
DAY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM NOW OVER TX WILL BE
LIFTING E-NE AND CROSSING OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH THE
JET POSITIONED FROM SOUTHERN AL TO THE NC COAST...THE MAJORITY OF
LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE EAST OF OUR AREA. THE NAM
PULLS MORE MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA THAN THE GFS...BUT EVEN THE NAM
SHOWS THIS MOISTURE MAINLY BELOW THE -10C LEVEL...SUGGESTING THAT
DRIZZLE IS MORE LIKELY THAN MEASURABLE RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...WILL
CUT BACK POPS TO A CHANCE EAST TO NOTHING WEST...BUT MENTIONING
DRIZZLE EVERYWHERE. QPF WILL BE REDUCED AS WELL...TO NO MORE THAN A
TENTH IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN ALL THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ALL LIQUID PRECIP. THE TROUGH PASSAGE SHOULD
BRING AN END TO ANY RAIN/DRIZZLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...QUITE THE ACTIVE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYSTEM COMING IN FOR CHRISTMAS THAT
WILL BRING...RAIN...MAYBE A FEW STORMS...WIND...AND PERHAPS SNOW.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY HEIGHTS WILL BE QUICKLY BUILDING OUT AHEAD
OF A DEEP TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DAY TO BE UNSEASONABLE
WARM. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
AND DEEP TROUGH IS ON OUR DOORSTEP BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DID DECIDE
TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM KNOXVILLE SOUTH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. CAPE IS VERY WEAK BUT SHEAR
AND HELICITY ARE ROBUST...IN LARGE PART DUE TO A STRONG 850MB JET OF
40 TO 50 KTS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS
FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BUT DID WANT TO MENTION A STORM
OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND STRONG LIFT WILL LEAD TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MORE SO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AREAS. CURRENT GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES RANGING FROM
1.40 TO 1.20 INCHES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS PUTS US AT 2SD ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. I DON`T THINK FLOODING WILL BE A
CONCERN THOUGH BECAUSE OF HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING. SO NOW
THAT WE HAVE TALKED ABOUT RAIN AND STORMS...LET`S TALK ABOUT SNOW.

CHRISTMAS EVE IS LOOKING TO BE RATHER NASTY WITH THE DEEP TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CONTINUES WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH BY
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EXPECT
RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH BREEZY
WINDS. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE
LEFT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM FOR SEVERAL DAYS OUT BUT HAVE NOT BEEN WITH THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. THE LATEST FEW MODEL RUNS OF THE ECMW AND THE
GFS ARE TRENDING THE LOW FURTHER TO OUR WEST. THIS MEANS THAT THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE PASSED OFF TO OUR EAST BEFORE IT GETS
COLD ENOUGH TO SNOW BACK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS LIKE OUR
SNOW WILL BE IN THE FORM OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. THE CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SNOW
LINGERING THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. MOST OF THE PRECIP DURING
THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY GET AN INCH OR TWO. AGAIN...ALL OF
THE ABOVE DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT THIS IS HOW IT`S
LOOKING FOR NOW.

THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS ON THURSDAY...CHRISTMAS DAY...AS IT RACES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WEAKER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THAT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE AREA.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             33  53  41  56 /   0  10  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  31  50  38  55 /   0  10  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  50  38  55 /   0   0  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              30  48  35  51 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 202022
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
322 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING
FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOST OF THE TN VALLEY SHOULD BE
CLEAR BEFORE MIDNIGHT IF THE TREND CONTINUES AND IF THE HRRR IS
ACCURATE. WITH THE EXPECTED CLEARING AND CALM WINDS...CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FOG TONIGHT. CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES ARE
ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE NORTH...SO WILL MENTION PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG
THERE AS WELL AS SW NC. FOG SHOULD BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE DUE TO THE
LOW SUN ANGLE AND WEAK MIXING TOMORROW MORNING. THE REST OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING LATE IN THE
DAY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM NOW OVER TX WILL BE
LIFTING E-NE AND CROSSING OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH THE
JET POSITIONED FROM SOUTHERN AL TO THE NC COAST...THE MAJORITY OF
LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE EAST OF OUR AREA. THE NAM
PULLS MORE MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA THAN THE GFS...BUT EVEN THE NAM
SHOWS THIS MOISTURE MAINLY BELOW THE -10C LEVEL...SUGGESTING THAT
DRIZZLE IS MORE LIKELY THAN MEASURABLE RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...WILL
CUT BACK POPS TO A CHANCE EAST TO NOTHING WEST...BUT MENTIONING
DRIZZLE EVERYWHERE. QPF WILL BE REDUCED AS WELL...TO NO MORE THAN A
TENTH IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN ALL THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ALL LIQUID PRECIP. THE TROUGH PASSAGE SHOULD
BRING AN END TO ANY RAIN/DRIZZLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...QUITE THE ACTIVE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYSTEM COMING IN FOR CHRISTMAS THAT
WILL BRING...RAIN...MAYBE A FEW STORMS...WIND...AND PERHAPS SNOW.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY HEIGHTS WILL BE QUICKLY BUILDING OUT AHEAD
OF A DEEP TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DAY TO BE UNSEASONABLE
WARM. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
AND DEEP TROUGH IS ON OUR DOORSTEP BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DID DECIDE
TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM KNOXVILLE SOUTH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. CAPE IS VERY WEAK BUT SHEAR
AND HELICITY ARE ROBUST...IN LARGE PART DUE TO A STRONG 850MB JET OF
40 TO 50 KTS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS
FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BUT DID WANT TO MENTION A STORM
OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND STRONG LIFT WILL LEAD TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MORE SO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AREAS. CURRENT GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES RANGING FROM
1.40 TO 1.20 INCHES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS PUTS US AT 2SD ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. I DON`T THINK FLOODING WILL BE A
CONCERN THOUGH BECAUSE OF HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING. SO NOW
THAT WE HAVE TALKED ABOUT RAIN AND STORMS...LET`S TALK ABOUT SNOW.

CHRISTMAS EVE IS LOOKING TO BE RATHER NASTY WITH THE DEEP TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CONTINUES WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH BY
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EXPECT
RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH BREEZY
WINDS. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE
LEFT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM FOR SEVERAL DAYS OUT BUT HAVE NOT BEEN WITH THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. THE LATEST FEW MODEL RUNS OF THE ECMW AND THE
GFS ARE TRENDING THE LOW FURTHER TO OUR WEST. THIS MEANS THAT THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE PASSED OFF TO OUR EAST BEFORE IT GETS
COLD ENOUGH TO SNOW BACK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS LIKE OUR
SNOW WILL BE IN THE FORM OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. THE CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SNOW
LINGERING THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. MOST OF THE PRECIP DURING
THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY GET AN INCH OR TWO. AGAIN...ALL OF
THE ABOVE DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT THIS IS HOW IT`S
LOOKING FOR NOW.

THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS ON THURSDAY...CHRISTMAS DAY...AS IT RACES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WEAKER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THAT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE AREA.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             33  53  41  56 /   0  10  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  31  50  38  55 /   0  10  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  50  38  55 /   0   0  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              30  48  35  51 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/SR




000
FXUS64 KOHX 201939
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
139 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS STILL PERSISTS. THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER...A RATHER LARGE HOLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA IN FACT. LATEST RADAR TREND SUPPORT ADDITIONAL BREAKS
UPSTREAM. THEREFORE...FOR THE UPDATE...NO CHANGES WITH THE CURRENT
SKY GRIDS AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE AND REFLECT THE GRADUAL
REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER. TEMPS HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO BE RAISED A
FEW DEGREES AS MAX TEMPS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO BEING REACHED.
REMAINDER OF FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
MID STATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDINESS IS RATHER EXTENSIVE
TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE RIDGING. AS THE DRIER AIR WINDS
OUT...WE SHOULD SEE A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CSV AREA TOWARD
12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      48  28  52  41 /   0   0  05  10
CLARKSVILLE    44  26  51  39 /   0  05  05  10
CROSSVILLE     47  28  49  38 /  10   0  05  20
COLUMBIA       48  29  53  42 /   0   0  05  20
LAWRENCEBURG   47  30  53  41 /   0   0  05  20
WAVERLY        45  28  51  40 /   0   0  05  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KOHX 201939
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
139 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS STILL PERSISTS. THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER...A RATHER LARGE HOLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA IN FACT. LATEST RADAR TREND SUPPORT ADDITIONAL BREAKS
UPSTREAM. THEREFORE...FOR THE UPDATE...NO CHANGES WITH THE CURRENT
SKY GRIDS AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE AND REFLECT THE GRADUAL
REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER. TEMPS HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO BE RAISED A
FEW DEGREES AS MAX TEMPS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO BEING REACHED.
REMAINDER OF FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
MID STATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDINESS IS RATHER EXTENSIVE
TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE RIDGING. AS THE DRIER AIR WINDS
OUT...WE SHOULD SEE A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CSV AREA TOWARD
12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      48  28  52  41 /   0   0  05  10
CLARKSVILLE    44  26  51  39 /   0  05  05  10
CROSSVILLE     47  28  49  38 /  10   0  05  20
COLUMBIA       48  29  53  42 /   0   0  05  20
LAWRENCEBURG   47  30  53  41 /   0   0  05  20
WAVERLY        45  28  51  40 /   0   0  05  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 201740
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1140 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
MID STATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDINESS IS RATHER EXTENSIVE
TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE RIDGING. AS THE DRIER AIR WINDS
OUT...WE SHOULD SEE A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CSV AREA TOWARD
12Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 201740
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1140 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
MID STATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDINESS IS RATHER EXTENSIVE
TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE RIDGING. AS THE DRIER AIR WINDS
OUT...WE SHOULD SEE A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CSV AREA TOWARD
12Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 201740
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1140 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
MID STATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDINESS IS RATHER EXTENSIVE
TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE RIDGING. AS THE DRIER AIR WINDS
OUT...WE SHOULD SEE A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CSV AREA TOWARD
12Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 201740
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1140 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
MID STATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDINESS IS RATHER EXTENSIVE
TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE RIDGING. AS THE DRIER AIR WINDS
OUT...WE SHOULD SEE A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CSV AREA TOWARD
12Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KMRX 201717
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1217 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER AT TYS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT
SHOULD LIFT AND/OR SCATTER OUT AFTER 21Z OR SO BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED AT TRI AROUND 00-03Z. THIS
EXPECTED CLEARING SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
FOG...ESPCIALLY AT TRI. MOST SIGNS POINT TO AT LEAST LIFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. TYS WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR
FOG...WITH NO FOG EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AT CHA. LIGHT WINDS AND A
LOW SUN ANGLE SHOULD MEAN ANY FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT...AND WILL
HOLD VIS BELOW VFR UNTIL 16Z AT TRI.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS



000
FXUS64 KMEG 201708
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1108 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS EXITED THE AREA WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AS OF 10 AM CST ARE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER/MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. WILL
MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES/CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR
SHORT TERM TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

A SFC LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO OVER THE SE US IS ALSO MOVING FARTHER
TO THE EAST. A SFC HIGH WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE NE LATER TODAY INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY ERODE LATER TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY PROVIDING
A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

A SFC HIGH WILL BE ALONG THE GULF COAST CHRISTMAS DAY WILL ALLOW
FOR SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...18Z CYCLE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIGHT WINDS FROM THE EAST.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 201708
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1108 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS EXITED THE AREA WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AS OF 10 AM CST ARE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER/MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. WILL
MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES/CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR
SHORT TERM TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

A SFC LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO OVER THE SE US IS ALSO MOVING FARTHER
TO THE EAST. A SFC HIGH WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE NE LATER TODAY INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY ERODE LATER TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY PROVIDING
A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

A SFC HIGH WILL BE ALONG THE GULF COAST CHRISTMAS DAY WILL ALLOW
FOR SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...18Z CYCLE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIGHT WINDS FROM THE EAST.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 201636
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1036 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS EXITED THE AREA WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AS OF 10 AM CST ARE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER/MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. WILL
MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES/CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR
SHORT TERM TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SFC LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO OVER THE SE US IS ALSO MOVING FARTHER
TO THE EAST. A SFC HIGH WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE NE LATER TODAY INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY ERODE LATER TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY PROVIDING
A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

A SFC HIGH WILL BE ALONG THE GULF COAST CHRISTMAS DAY WILL ALLOW
FOR SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH JBR POSSIBLY SEEING BRIEF MVFR CIGS
THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 201636
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1036 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS EXITED THE AREA WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AS OF 10 AM CST ARE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER/MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. WILL
MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES/CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR
SHORT TERM TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SFC LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO OVER THE SE US IS ALSO MOVING FARTHER
TO THE EAST. A SFC HIGH WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE NE LATER TODAY INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY ERODE LATER TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY PROVIDING
A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

A SFC HIGH WILL BE ALONG THE GULF COAST CHRISTMAS DAY WILL ALLOW
FOR SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH JBR POSSIBLY SEEING BRIEF MVFR CIGS
THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 201507 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1007 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE HOLDING ON TIGHTER THAN EXPECTED SO FAR...AND
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IN THE PLATEAU IS MAKING VERY LITTLE
EASTWARD PROGRESS. TO SEE MUCH SUN TODAY...WE WILL NEED THE CLOUDS
TO MIX OUT. WITH NO STRONG INVERSION SEEN IN THE 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS
OR THE LATEST RAP...CLOUD DISSIPATION APPEARS LIKELY WITH SOME
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY BE SLOW AS LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
WEAK. WILL UPDATE TO SLOW DOWN THE RATE OF CLEARING...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY WEST.
TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS



000
FXUS64 KMRX 201507 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1007 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE HOLDING ON TIGHTER THAN EXPECTED SO FAR...AND
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IN THE PLATEAU IS MAKING VERY LITTLE
EASTWARD PROGRESS. TO SEE MUCH SUN TODAY...WE WILL NEED THE CLOUDS
TO MIX OUT. WITH NO STRONG INVERSION SEEN IN THE 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS
OR THE LATEST RAP...CLOUD DISSIPATION APPEARS LIKELY WITH SOME
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY BE SLOW AS LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
WEAK. WILL UPDATE TO SLOW DOWN THE RATE OF CLEARING...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY WEST.
TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KOHX 201144
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
544 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD, PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTH
NORTHEAST FLOW AT ALL MID- STATE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MVFR POSSIBLE AT CSV LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, DUE TO BR. MEANWHILE,
VFR SHOULD CONTINUE AT BOTH OF OUR OTHER MID STATE TERMINALS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 201144
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
544 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD, PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTH
NORTHEAST FLOW AT ALL MID- STATE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MVFR POSSIBLE AT CSV LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, DUE TO BR. MEANWHILE,
VFR SHOULD CONTINUE AT BOTH OF OUR OTHER MID STATE TERMINALS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 201144
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
544 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD, PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTH
NORTHEAST FLOW AT ALL MID- STATE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MVFR POSSIBLE AT CSV LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, DUE TO BR. MEANWHILE,
VFR SHOULD CONTINUE AT BOTH OF OUR OTHER MID STATE TERMINALS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 201144
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
544 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD, PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTH
NORTHEAST FLOW AT ALL MID- STATE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MVFR POSSIBLE AT CSV LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, DUE TO BR. MEANWHILE,
VFR SHOULD CONTINUE AT BOTH OF OUR OTHER MID STATE TERMINALS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KMEG 201123
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
523 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SFC LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO OVER THE SE US IS ALSO MOVING FARTHER
TO THE EAST. A SFC HIGH WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE NE LATER TODAY INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY ERODE LATER TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY PROVIDING
A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

A SFC HIGH WILL BE ALONG THE GULF COAST CHRISTMAS DAY WILL ALLOW
FOR SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH JBR POSSIBLY SEEING BRIEF MVFR CIGS
THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 201123
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
523 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SFC LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO OVER THE SE US IS ALSO MOVING FARTHER
TO THE EAST. A SFC HIGH WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE NE LATER TODAY INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY ERODE LATER TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY PROVIDING
A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

A SFC HIGH WILL BE ALONG THE GULF COAST CHRISTMAS DAY WILL ALLOW
FOR SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH JBR POSSIBLY SEEING BRIEF MVFR CIGS
THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 201121
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
621 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WILL EXIT EARLY AS WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT. CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. MAY BE SOME FOG FORMATION LATE IN THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT TRI...BUT CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ON HOW
LOW VIS WILL GO. FOR NOW WILL TAKE TYS TO MVFR...AND TRI TO LIFR
CONDITIONS LATE.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 201121
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
621 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WILL EXIT EARLY AS WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT. CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. MAY BE SOME FOG FORMATION LATE IN THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT TRI...BUT CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ON HOW
LOW VIS WILL GO. FOR NOW WILL TAKE TYS TO MVFR...AND TRI TO LIFR
CONDITIONS LATE.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 201121
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
621 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WILL EXIT EARLY AS WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT. CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. MAY BE SOME FOG FORMATION LATE IN THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT TRI...BUT CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ON HOW
LOW VIS WILL GO. FOR NOW WILL TAKE TYS TO MVFR...AND TRI TO LIFR
CONDITIONS LATE.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 201121
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
621 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WILL EXIT EARLY AS WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT. CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. MAY BE SOME FOG FORMATION LATE IN THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT TRI...BUT CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ON HOW
LOW VIS WILL GO. FOR NOW WILL TAKE TYS TO MVFR...AND TRI TO LIFR
CONDITIONS LATE.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMEG 200945
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
345 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A SFC LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO OVER THE SE US IS ALSO MOVING FARTHER
TO THE EAST. A SFC HIGH WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE NE LATER TODAY INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY ERODE LATER TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY PROVIDING
A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

A SFC HIGH WILL BE ALONG THE GULF COAST CHRISTMAS DAY WILL ALLOW
FOR SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

0515Z GOES IR IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED
LIGHT PRECIP LIFTING OUT INTO OHIO VALLEY. ISOLATED WRAP AROUND
PRECIP...LIKELY -RAPL... WAS NOTED ON RADAR NEAR JBR. OTHERWISE...
A RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WITH VFR AND NORTHEAST WINDS
PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH. MVFR/IFR WAS NOT TOO FAR REMOVED...
PER METARS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF AR.

VFR AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AT MEM THROUGH THE
LATE NIGHT OUTBOUND CARGO PUSH...WITH STRATUS OVER AR REMAINING TO
THE WEST UNTIL AFTER 12Z...AFFECTING MAINLY JBR.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 200945
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
345 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A SFC LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO OVER THE SE US IS ALSO MOVING FARTHER
TO THE EAST. A SFC HIGH WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE NE LATER TODAY INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY ERODE LATER TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY PROVIDING
A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

A SFC HIGH WILL BE ALONG THE GULF COAST CHRISTMAS DAY WILL ALLOW
FOR SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

0515Z GOES IR IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED
LIGHT PRECIP LIFTING OUT INTO OHIO VALLEY. ISOLATED WRAP AROUND
PRECIP...LIKELY -RAPL... WAS NOTED ON RADAR NEAR JBR. OTHERWISE...
A RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WITH VFR AND NORTHEAST WINDS
PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH. MVFR/IFR WAS NOT TOO FAR REMOVED...
PER METARS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF AR.

VFR AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AT MEM THROUGH THE
LATE NIGHT OUTBOUND CARGO PUSH...WITH STRATUS OVER AR REMAINING TO
THE WEST UNTIL AFTER 12Z...AFFECTING MAINLY JBR.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 200925
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
325 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE BROUGHT SOME PATCHY LIGHT
FLURRIES...ICE PELLETS AND DRIZZLE EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. A FEW
RADAR RETURNS REMAINED ON THE PLATEAU AT 300 AM...BUT THESE WILL
BE GONE SOON...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING DRY AIR COMING IN
QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE MAIN WX FEATURE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL..IN THE 40S. TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR AND CHILLY...LOWS IN THE 20S. SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY IN
THE MORNING...WITH A SUN AND CLOUD MIX IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S MOST AREAS.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. A TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING OVER
THE PLAINS AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS COMBINATION OF FEATURE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
MILDER TEMPS AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY...A STRONG JET STREAM WILL CARRY ADDITIONAL ENERGY INTO
THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. AS THIS TROUGH
SHARPENS...AND A STRONG COLD FRONT DEVELOPS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL FLOW
INTO MID TN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL APPROACH 1.23
INCH...OR ABOUT +2SD...SUGGESTING A SOAKING RAINFALL EVENT. RIGHT
NOW...WE HAVE ONE HALF TO 1 INCH IN THE FORECAST...BUT LOCALLY HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE IN THE FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DECENT SHEAR AND AT LEAST MODEST CAPE.

FOR WEDNESDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE)...THE DEEP TROUGH WILL PUSH
EASTWARD...EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES...DOWN ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY AND TO THE GULF COAST. A QUICK SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL
COMBINE WITH THE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES TO PRODUCE SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION IN MID TN. WE EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...BUT IT LOOKS MINOR AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN TRAVEL
IMPACTS WITH THIS STORM WILL BE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BUT ANYBODY PLANNING TRAVEL NORTH OF TN OR TO THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR UPDATED WX INFORMATION.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT AWAY INTO EASTERN CANADA FOR
CHRISTMAS...LEAVING US WITH A MAINLY SUNNY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING A SMALL RAIN CHANCE FRIDAY....FOLLOWED BY
DRY AND COLDER THAN NORMAL WX INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      47  29  52  41 /   0   0   0  20
CLARKSVILLE    44  27  51  39 /   0   0   0  20
CROSSVILLE     44  27  49  38 /  10   0  10  30
COLUMBIA       47  29  53  42 /   0   0  10  20
LAWRENCEBURG   47  30  53  42 /   0   0  10  20
WAVERLY        45  28  51  40 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 200925
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
325 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE BROUGHT SOME PATCHY LIGHT
FLURRIES...ICE PELLETS AND DRIZZLE EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. A FEW
RADAR RETURNS REMAINED ON THE PLATEAU AT 300 AM...BUT THESE WILL
BE GONE SOON...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING DRY AIR COMING IN
QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE MAIN WX FEATURE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL..IN THE 40S. TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR AND CHILLY...LOWS IN THE 20S. SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY IN
THE MORNING...WITH A SUN AND CLOUD MIX IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S MOST AREAS.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. A TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING OVER
THE PLAINS AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS COMBINATION OF FEATURE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
MILDER TEMPS AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY...A STRONG JET STREAM WILL CARRY ADDITIONAL ENERGY INTO
THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. AS THIS TROUGH
SHARPENS...AND A STRONG COLD FRONT DEVELOPS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL FLOW
INTO MID TN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL APPROACH 1.23
INCH...OR ABOUT +2SD...SUGGESTING A SOAKING RAINFALL EVENT. RIGHT
NOW...WE HAVE ONE HALF TO 1 INCH IN THE FORECAST...BUT LOCALLY HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE IN THE FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DECENT SHEAR AND AT LEAST MODEST CAPE.

FOR WEDNESDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE)...THE DEEP TROUGH WILL PUSH
EASTWARD...EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES...DOWN ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY AND TO THE GULF COAST. A QUICK SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL
COMBINE WITH THE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES TO PRODUCE SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION IN MID TN. WE EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...BUT IT LOOKS MINOR AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN TRAVEL
IMPACTS WITH THIS STORM WILL BE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BUT ANYBODY PLANNING TRAVEL NORTH OF TN OR TO THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR UPDATED WX INFORMATION.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT AWAY INTO EASTERN CANADA FOR
CHRISTMAS...LEAVING US WITH A MAINLY SUNNY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING A SMALL RAIN CHANCE FRIDAY....FOLLOWED BY
DRY AND COLDER THAN NORMAL WX INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      47  29  52  41 /   0   0   0  20
CLARKSVILLE    44  27  51  39 /   0   0   0  20
CROSSVILLE     44  27  49  38 /  10   0  10  30
COLUMBIA       47  29  53  42 /   0   0  10  20
LAWRENCEBURG   47  30  53  42 /   0   0  10  20
WAVERLY        45  28  51  40 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 200853
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
350 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA WILL EXIT EARLY TODAY.  ONLY SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR SO
FAR...AND MUCH OF THAT NOT REACHING THE GROUND.  WILL CARRY SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALL BUT SOUTHWEST/WEST ZONES EARLY
TODAY FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW...BUT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL
BE QUITE LIGHT.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SOME
DRYING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE...ALTHOUGH CONFLICTING SIGNALS IN
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS AND WEAK FLOW LEAD TO LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN SKY FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. JUST SOME MOSTLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAV TEMPS...MOSTLY TO TWEAK DOWN SOME HIGHS AND
TWEAK UP SOME LOWS.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SUNDAY STARTS OUT DRY WITH SOME
RIDGING ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BE SWINGING NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN. THERE COULD BE A SNOW FLURRY IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. THIS WAVE SHOULD BE MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST DURING
THE DAY MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE MAINLY WESTERN
AREAS. FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SYSTEM THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING SOME MAJOR LEAGUE AMPLIFICATION WITH A
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH FORMING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRENGTHENING MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW COMPLETE WITH A COUPLE WEAK IMPULSES. THEREFORE KEPT
A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER GOING THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT THE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...MAYBE EVEN A CLAP OF
THUNDER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DRAGS A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE RATHER SLOWLY EAST IN THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN AND SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...A LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE FEATURE AND THE MOIST AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
TRAILING SHORT WAVE. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE SPREADING EAST BEHIND
THE FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND BY THE AFTERNOON THE RAIN
WILL BE CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS BUT MAINLY OUT
WEST ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AGAIN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST LIFT WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS...MAINLY THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AS WELL AS THE
SMOKY MOUNTAINS. A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO SAY BUT SOME OF THESE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS COULD PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WILL OROGRAPHIC
SUPPORT. THE MODELS CONTINUE WITH A PROGRESSIVE MODE FOR THIS SYSTEM
ON CHRISTMAS DAY ALLOWING DRIER AIR AND A RETURN TO SUNSHINE FOR
MOST AREAS. THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT AGAIN CHRISTMAS EVENING IN
TIME FOR THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             49  33  53  41 /  10   0  10  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  47  31  51  38 /  20   0  10  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       46  30  50  38 /  20   0  10  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              45  29  48  34 /  40  10   0  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 200853
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
350 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA WILL EXIT EARLY TODAY.  ONLY SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR SO
FAR...AND MUCH OF THAT NOT REACHING THE GROUND.  WILL CARRY SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALL BUT SOUTHWEST/WEST ZONES EARLY
TODAY FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW...BUT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL
BE QUITE LIGHT.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SOME
DRYING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE...ALTHOUGH CONFLICTING SIGNALS IN
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS AND WEAK FLOW LEAD TO LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN SKY FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. JUST SOME MOSTLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAV TEMPS...MOSTLY TO TWEAK DOWN SOME HIGHS AND
TWEAK UP SOME LOWS.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SUNDAY STARTS OUT DRY WITH SOME
RIDGING ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BE SWINGING NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN. THERE COULD BE A SNOW FLURRY IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. THIS WAVE SHOULD BE MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST DURING
THE DAY MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE MAINLY WESTERN
AREAS. FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SYSTEM THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING SOME MAJOR LEAGUE AMPLIFICATION WITH A
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH FORMING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRENGTHENING MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW COMPLETE WITH A COUPLE WEAK IMPULSES. THEREFORE KEPT
A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER GOING THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT THE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...MAYBE EVEN A CLAP OF
THUNDER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DRAGS A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE RATHER SLOWLY EAST IN THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN AND SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...A LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE FEATURE AND THE MOIST AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
TRAILING SHORT WAVE. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE SPREADING EAST BEHIND
THE FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND BY THE AFTERNOON THE RAIN
WILL BE CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS BUT MAINLY OUT
WEST ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AGAIN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST LIFT WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS...MAINLY THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AS WELL AS THE
SMOKY MOUNTAINS. A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO SAY BUT SOME OF THESE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS COULD PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WILL OROGRAPHIC
SUPPORT. THE MODELS CONTINUE WITH A PROGRESSIVE MODE FOR THIS SYSTEM
ON CHRISTMAS DAY ALLOWING DRIER AIR AND A RETURN TO SUNSHINE FOR
MOST AREAS. THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT AGAIN CHRISTMAS EVENING IN
TIME FOR THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             49  33  53  41 /  10   0  10  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  47  31  51  38 /  20   0  10  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       46  30  50  38 /  20   0  10  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              45  29  48  34 /  40  10   0  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 200702
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
102 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION MOVING RAPIDLY
EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN AREAS, IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS. WILL UPDATE ZFP TO END PRECIP CHC OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS.

OTHERWISE, NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 200702
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
102 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION MOVING RAPIDLY
EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN AREAS, IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS. WILL UPDATE ZFP TO END PRECIP CHC OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS.

OTHERWISE, NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 200702
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
102 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION MOVING RAPIDLY
EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN AREAS, IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS. WILL UPDATE ZFP TO END PRECIP CHC OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS.

OTHERWISE, NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 200702
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
102 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION MOVING RAPIDLY
EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN AREAS, IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS. WILL UPDATE ZFP TO END PRECIP CHC OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS.

OTHERWISE, NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities