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000
FXUS64 KMRX 290810
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE WHILE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A S-SW LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE
NAM AND GFS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SPREADING
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 850 MB...AND REMAINING IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE THE RAP SHOWS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE THROUGH
TODAY. THIS DRIER SOLUTION IS GENERALLY PREFERED AS SATELLITE SHOWS
NO CLOUDS AT THIS LEVEL UPSTREAM. WILL BRING IN SOME CLOUDS IN THE
PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IT WILL ALSO MAKE
FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER GFS
MOS FOR HIGHS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH THE DAY WILL BRING WINDS UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ONLY SLIGHT TWEAKS AND CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM...
SLIGHT RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE MIX LATE IN THE DAY BRINGING DECENT CHANCES OF RAIN POST
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THINK THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ALONG WITH THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE TIED CLOSELY WITH THE FRONT, BUT
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOISTURE AND POST
FRONTAL ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD COMBINE TO BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ON AND OFF THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. TAKE A BIT OF A
BREAK MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BRINGING IN
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
CHANCES OF RAIN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             57  42  60  48 /   0   0   0  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  56  39  62  43 /   0   0  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       55  41  60  46 /   0  10  10  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              54  34  60  38 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 290810
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE WHILE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A S-SW LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE
NAM AND GFS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SPREADING
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 850 MB...AND REMAINING IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE THE RAP SHOWS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE THROUGH
TODAY. THIS DRIER SOLUTION IS GENERALLY PREFERED AS SATELLITE SHOWS
NO CLOUDS AT THIS LEVEL UPSTREAM. WILL BRING IN SOME CLOUDS IN THE
PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IT WILL ALSO MAKE
FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER GFS
MOS FOR HIGHS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH THE DAY WILL BRING WINDS UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ONLY SLIGHT TWEAKS AND CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM...
SLIGHT RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE MIX LATE IN THE DAY BRINGING DECENT CHANCES OF RAIN POST
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THINK THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ALONG WITH THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE TIED CLOSELY WITH THE FRONT, BUT
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOISTURE AND POST
FRONTAL ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD COMBINE TO BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ON AND OFF THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. TAKE A BIT OF A
BREAK MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BRINGING IN
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
CHANCES OF RAIN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             57  42  60  48 /   0   0   0  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  56  39  62  43 /   0   0  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       55  41  60  46 /   0  10  10  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              54  34  60  38 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/ABM



000
FXUS64 KMRX 290526
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1226 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
THE MORNING...HOWEVER SOME BROKEN CLOUDS WILL BE ENTERING THE AREA
FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS DECK IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN
THE VFR RANGE...BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT IT COULD DROP TO
MVFR AT TIMES. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM THE S TO SW.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 290526
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1226 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
THE MORNING...HOWEVER SOME BROKEN CLOUDS WILL BE ENTERING THE AREA
FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS DECK IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN
THE VFR RANGE...BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT IT COULD DROP TO
MVFR AT TIMES. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM THE S TO SW.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 290526
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1226 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
THE MORNING...HOWEVER SOME BROKEN CLOUDS WILL BE ENTERING THE AREA
FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS DECK IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN
THE VFR RANGE...BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT IT COULD DROP TO
MVFR AT TIMES. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM THE S TO SW.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 290526
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1226 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
THE MORNING...HOWEVER SOME BROKEN CLOUDS WILL BE ENTERING THE AREA
FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS DECK IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN
THE VFR RANGE...BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT IT COULD DROP TO
MVFR AT TIMES. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM THE S TO SW.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOHX 290521
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1121 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAFS.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST OF MIDDLE TN SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SOME MVFR CLOUDS FOR CKV AND BNA. CSV CIGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE
VFR THRESHOLD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN AND BE GUSTY
THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

REAGAN
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 944 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

UPDATE...
AS FOR TONIGHT...PER CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTION TRENDS...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR INCREASING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE PER NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ADVECTING
IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER MO ACROSS THE MID STATE
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THIS ACTION ALSO...RAISED
LOWS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID STATE AS ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL KEEP LOWS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...I.E. LOWS NOW EXPECTED MAINLY MID TO UPPER 30S.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
10





000
FXUS64 KOHX 290521
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1121 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAFS.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST OF MIDDLE TN SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SOME MVFR CLOUDS FOR CKV AND BNA. CSV CIGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE
VFR THRESHOLD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN AND BE GUSTY
THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

REAGAN
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 944 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

UPDATE...
AS FOR TONIGHT...PER CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTION TRENDS...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR INCREASING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE PER NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ADVECTING
IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER MO ACROSS THE MID STATE
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THIS ACTION ALSO...RAISED
LOWS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID STATE AS ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL KEEP LOWS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...I.E. LOWS NOW EXPECTED MAINLY MID TO UPPER 30S.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
10





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMEG 290514
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1114 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WESTERN LOUISIANA. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SHOULD BE CLOUDY BY 4-6 AM CST. WILL ADJUST SKY CONDITION TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SUNNY SKIES REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS IN
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WHICH WILL BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS
WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

AS MILDER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL
MUCH MILDER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MUCH COLDER IN THE AFTERNOON. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN. WITH THE MUCH
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE
THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE REACHING THE GULF COAST SO ONLY
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE ANY LIGHT RAIN
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH WHICH
WILL START A WARMING TREND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE REGION THURSDAY AND NEXT FRIDAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THEN LOW CLOUDS WILL
QUICKLY SURGE NORTH AND INTO THE MIDSOUTH AFTER 29/09Z. CIGS WILL
DROP TO IFR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO
MVFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD TO THE TAFS
ATTM. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM THE SOUTH AFT 30/00Z AT
KMEM AND KTUP.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AROUND 10-12 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
12-18 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY 29/15Z. CONTINUED MENTION OF WIND
SHEAR AT 1500 FEET THROUGH ABOUT 29/12Z AT ALL SITES.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 290514
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1114 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WESTERN LOUISIANA. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SHOULD BE CLOUDY BY 4-6 AM CST. WILL ADJUST SKY CONDITION TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SUNNY SKIES REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS IN
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WHICH WILL BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS
WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

AS MILDER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL
MUCH MILDER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MUCH COLDER IN THE AFTERNOON. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN. WITH THE MUCH
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE
THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE REACHING THE GULF COAST SO ONLY
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE ANY LIGHT RAIN
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH WHICH
WILL START A WARMING TREND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE REGION THURSDAY AND NEXT FRIDAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THEN LOW CLOUDS WILL
QUICKLY SURGE NORTH AND INTO THE MIDSOUTH AFTER 29/09Z. CIGS WILL
DROP TO IFR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO
MVFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD TO THE TAFS
ATTM. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM THE SOUTH AFT 30/00Z AT
KMEM AND KTUP.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AROUND 10-12 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
12-18 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY 29/15Z. CONTINUED MENTION OF WIND
SHEAR AT 1500 FEET THROUGH ABOUT 29/12Z AT ALL SITES.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 290514
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1114 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WESTERN LOUISIANA. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SHOULD BE CLOUDY BY 4-6 AM CST. WILL ADJUST SKY CONDITION TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SUNNY SKIES REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS IN
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WHICH WILL BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS
WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

AS MILDER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL
MUCH MILDER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MUCH COLDER IN THE AFTERNOON. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN. WITH THE MUCH
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE
THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE REACHING THE GULF COAST SO ONLY
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE ANY LIGHT RAIN
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH WHICH
WILL START A WARMING TREND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE REGION THURSDAY AND NEXT FRIDAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THEN LOW CLOUDS WILL
QUICKLY SURGE NORTH AND INTO THE MIDSOUTH AFTER 29/09Z. CIGS WILL
DROP TO IFR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO
MVFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD TO THE TAFS
ATTM. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM THE SOUTH AFT 30/00Z AT
KMEM AND KTUP.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AROUND 10-12 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
12-18 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY 29/15Z. CONTINUED MENTION OF WIND
SHEAR AT 1500 FEET THROUGH ABOUT 29/12Z AT ALL SITES.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 290514
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1114 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WESTERN LOUISIANA. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SHOULD BE CLOUDY BY 4-6 AM CST. WILL ADJUST SKY CONDITION TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SUNNY SKIES REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS IN
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WHICH WILL BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS
WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

AS MILDER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL
MUCH MILDER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MUCH COLDER IN THE AFTERNOON. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN. WITH THE MUCH
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE
THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE REACHING THE GULF COAST SO ONLY
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE ANY LIGHT RAIN
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH WHICH
WILL START A WARMING TREND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE REGION THURSDAY AND NEXT FRIDAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THEN LOW CLOUDS WILL
QUICKLY SURGE NORTH AND INTO THE MIDSOUTH AFTER 29/09Z. CIGS WILL
DROP TO IFR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO
MVFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD TO THE TAFS
ATTM. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM THE SOUTH AFT 30/00Z AT
KMEM AND KTUP.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AROUND 10-12 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
12-18 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY 29/15Z. CONTINUED MENTION OF WIND
SHEAR AT 1500 FEET THROUGH ABOUT 29/12Z AT ALL SITES.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 290344 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
944 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
AS FOR TONIGHT...PER CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTION TRENDS...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR INCREASING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE PER NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ADVECTING
IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER MO ACROSS THE MID STATE
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THIS ACTION ALSO...RAISED
LOWS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID STATE AS ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL KEEP LOWS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...I.E. LOWS NOW EXPECTED MAINLY MID TO UPPER 30S.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 624 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

UPDATE...
TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...WINDS...AND SKY CONDITIONS FOR THIS
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO DO THIS PERIODICALLY THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE FORECAST AND BELOW MENTIONED FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 531 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAFS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
ALLOWING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. TOMORROW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION AT CKV. BNA WILL
SEE SOME OF THOSE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT FLYING
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

REAGAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY TODAY...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
IN MANY SPOTS. EXPECT ANOTHER COUPLE OF WARM DAYS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT TODAY`S SUNSHINE WILL
CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO USHER IN OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW SWINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA ON
SUNDAY BRINGING THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT TO A STALL
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN A SURFACE
HIGH FINALLY FORCES THE WEAK FRONT EAST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER FRONT IS ON THE HEELS OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY
EVENING. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER
50S FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO LOW 50S.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 290344 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
944 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
AS FOR TONIGHT...PER CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTION TRENDS...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR INCREASING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE PER NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ADVECTING
IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER MO ACROSS THE MID STATE
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THIS ACTION ALSO...RAISED
LOWS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID STATE AS ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL KEEP LOWS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...I.E. LOWS NOW EXPECTED MAINLY MID TO UPPER 30S.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 624 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

UPDATE...
TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...WINDS...AND SKY CONDITIONS FOR THIS
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO DO THIS PERIODICALLY THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE FORECAST AND BELOW MENTIONED FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 531 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAFS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
ALLOWING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. TOMORROW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION AT CKV. BNA WILL
SEE SOME OF THOSE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT FLYING
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

REAGAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY TODAY...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
IN MANY SPOTS. EXPECT ANOTHER COUPLE OF WARM DAYS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT TODAY`S SUNSHINE WILL
CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO USHER IN OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW SWINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA ON
SUNDAY BRINGING THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT TO A STALL
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN A SURFACE
HIGH FINALLY FORCES THE WEAK FRONT EAST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER FRONT IS ON THE HEELS OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY
EVENING. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER
50S FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO LOW 50S.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 290344 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
944 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
AS FOR TONIGHT...PER CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTION TRENDS...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR INCREASING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE PER NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ADVECTING
IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER MO ACROSS THE MID STATE
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THIS ACTION ALSO...RAISED
LOWS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID STATE AS ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL KEEP LOWS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...I.E. LOWS NOW EXPECTED MAINLY MID TO UPPER 30S.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 624 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

UPDATE...
TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...WINDS...AND SKY CONDITIONS FOR THIS
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO DO THIS PERIODICALLY THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE FORECAST AND BELOW MENTIONED FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 531 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAFS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
ALLOWING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. TOMORROW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION AT CKV. BNA WILL
SEE SOME OF THOSE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT FLYING
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

REAGAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY TODAY...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
IN MANY SPOTS. EXPECT ANOTHER COUPLE OF WARM DAYS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT TODAY`S SUNSHINE WILL
CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO USHER IN OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW SWINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA ON
SUNDAY BRINGING THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT TO A STALL
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN A SURFACE
HIGH FINALLY FORCES THE WEAK FRONT EAST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER FRONT IS ON THE HEELS OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY
EVENING. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER
50S FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO LOW 50S.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 290344 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
944 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
AS FOR TONIGHT...PER CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTION TRENDS...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR INCREASING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE PER NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ADVECTING
IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER MO ACROSS THE MID STATE
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THIS ACTION ALSO...RAISED
LOWS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID STATE AS ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL KEEP LOWS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...I.E. LOWS NOW EXPECTED MAINLY MID TO UPPER 30S.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 624 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

UPDATE...
TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...WINDS...AND SKY CONDITIONS FOR THIS
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO DO THIS PERIODICALLY THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE FORECAST AND BELOW MENTIONED FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 531 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAFS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
ALLOWING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. TOMORROW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION AT CKV. BNA WILL
SEE SOME OF THOSE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT FLYING
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

REAGAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY TODAY...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
IN MANY SPOTS. EXPECT ANOTHER COUPLE OF WARM DAYS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT TODAY`S SUNSHINE WILL
CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO USHER IN OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW SWINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA ON
SUNDAY BRINGING THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT TO A STALL
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN A SURFACE
HIGH FINALLY FORCES THE WEAK FRONT EAST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER FRONT IS ON THE HEELS OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY
EVENING. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER
50S FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO LOW 50S.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 290344 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
944 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
AS FOR TONIGHT...PER CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTION TRENDS...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR INCREASING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE PER NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ADVECTING
IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER MO ACROSS THE MID STATE
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THIS ACTION ALSO...RAISED
LOWS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID STATE AS ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL KEEP LOWS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...I.E. LOWS NOW EXPECTED MAINLY MID TO UPPER 30S.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 624 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

UPDATE...
TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...WINDS...AND SKY CONDITIONS FOR THIS
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO DO THIS PERIODICALLY THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE FORECAST AND BELOW MENTIONED FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 531 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAFS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
ALLOWING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. TOMORROW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION AT CKV. BNA WILL
SEE SOME OF THOSE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT FLYING
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

REAGAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY TODAY...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
IN MANY SPOTS. EXPECT ANOTHER COUPLE OF WARM DAYS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT TODAY`S SUNSHINE WILL
CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO USHER IN OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW SWINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA ON
SUNDAY BRINGING THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT TO A STALL
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN A SURFACE
HIGH FINALLY FORCES THE WEAK FRONT EAST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER FRONT IS ON THE HEELS OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY
EVENING. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER
50S FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO LOW 50S.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 290344 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
944 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
AS FOR TONIGHT...PER CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTION TRENDS...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR INCREASING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE PER NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ADVECTING
IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER MO ACROSS THE MID STATE
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THIS ACTION ALSO...RAISED
LOWS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID STATE AS ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL KEEP LOWS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...I.E. LOWS NOW EXPECTED MAINLY MID TO UPPER 30S.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 624 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

UPDATE...
TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...WINDS...AND SKY CONDITIONS FOR THIS
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO DO THIS PERIODICALLY THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE FORECAST AND BELOW MENTIONED FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 531 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAFS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
ALLOWING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. TOMORROW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION AT CKV. BNA WILL
SEE SOME OF THOSE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT FLYING
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

REAGAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY TODAY...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
IN MANY SPOTS. EXPECT ANOTHER COUPLE OF WARM DAYS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT TODAY`S SUNSHINE WILL
CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO USHER IN OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW SWINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA ON
SUNDAY BRINGING THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT TO A STALL
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN A SURFACE
HIGH FINALLY FORCES THE WEAK FRONT EAST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER FRONT IS ON THE HEELS OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY
EVENING. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER
50S FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO LOW 50S.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KMEG 290310
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
910 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WESTERN LOUISIANA. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SHOULD BE CLOUDY BY 4-6 AM CST. WILL ADJUST SKY CONDITION TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SUNNY SKIES REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS IN
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WHICH WILL BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS
WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

AS MILDER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL
MUCH MILDER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MUCH COLDER IN THE AFTERNOON. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN. WITH THE MUCH
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE
THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE REACHING THE GULF COAST SO ONLY
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE ANY LIGHT RAIN
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH WHICH
WILL START A WARMING TREND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE REGION THURSDAY AND NEXT FRIDAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT THEN LOW CLOUDS WILL
QUICKLY SURGE NORTH AND INTO KMEM AND KJBR AFTER 29/09Z AND INTO
AND KMKL AND KTUP AFTER 29/11Z. CIGS WILL DROP TO IFR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO MVFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD TO THE TAFS ATTM.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 12-18 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY 29/15Z. CONTINUED MENTION OF WIND SHEAR AT
1500 FEET THROUGH ABOUT 29/12Z AT ALL SITES.

SJM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 290310
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
910 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WESTERN LOUISIANA. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SHOULD BE CLOUDY BY 4-6 AM CST. WILL ADJUST SKY CONDITION TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SUNNY SKIES REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS IN
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WHICH WILL BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS
WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

AS MILDER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL
MUCH MILDER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MUCH COLDER IN THE AFTERNOON. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN. WITH THE MUCH
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE
THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE REACHING THE GULF COAST SO ONLY
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE ANY LIGHT RAIN
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH WHICH
WILL START A WARMING TREND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE REGION THURSDAY AND NEXT FRIDAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT THEN LOW CLOUDS WILL
QUICKLY SURGE NORTH AND INTO KMEM AND KJBR AFTER 29/09Z AND INTO
AND KMKL AND KTUP AFTER 29/11Z. CIGS WILL DROP TO IFR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO MVFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD TO THE TAFS ATTM.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 12-18 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY 29/15Z. CONTINUED MENTION OF WIND SHEAR AT
1500 FEET THROUGH ABOUT 29/12Z AT ALL SITES.

SJM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 290310
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
910 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WESTERN LOUISIANA. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SHOULD BE CLOUDY BY 4-6 AM CST. WILL ADJUST SKY CONDITION TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SUNNY SKIES REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS IN
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WHICH WILL BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS
WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

AS MILDER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL
MUCH MILDER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MUCH COLDER IN THE AFTERNOON. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN. WITH THE MUCH
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE
THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE REACHING THE GULF COAST SO ONLY
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE ANY LIGHT RAIN
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH WHICH
WILL START A WARMING TREND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE REGION THURSDAY AND NEXT FRIDAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT THEN LOW CLOUDS WILL
QUICKLY SURGE NORTH AND INTO KMEM AND KJBR AFTER 29/09Z AND INTO
AND KMKL AND KTUP AFTER 29/11Z. CIGS WILL DROP TO IFR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO MVFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD TO THE TAFS ATTM.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 12-18 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY 29/15Z. CONTINUED MENTION OF WIND SHEAR AT
1500 FEET THROUGH ABOUT 29/12Z AT ALL SITES.

SJM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 290310
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
910 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WESTERN LOUISIANA. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SHOULD BE CLOUDY BY 4-6 AM CST. WILL ADJUST SKY CONDITION TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SUNNY SKIES REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS IN
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WHICH WILL BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS
WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

AS MILDER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL
MUCH MILDER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MUCH COLDER IN THE AFTERNOON. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN. WITH THE MUCH
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE
THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE REACHING THE GULF COAST SO ONLY
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE ANY LIGHT RAIN
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH WHICH
WILL START A WARMING TREND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE REGION THURSDAY AND NEXT FRIDAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT THEN LOW CLOUDS WILL
QUICKLY SURGE NORTH AND INTO KMEM AND KJBR AFTER 29/09Z AND INTO
AND KMKL AND KTUP AFTER 29/11Z. CIGS WILL DROP TO IFR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO MVFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD TO THE TAFS ATTM.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 12-18 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY 29/15Z. CONTINUED MENTION OF WIND SHEAR AT
1500 FEET THROUGH ABOUT 29/12Z AT ALL SITES.

SJM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 290310
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
910 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WESTERN LOUISIANA. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SHOULD BE CLOUDY BY 4-6 AM CST. WILL ADJUST SKY CONDITION TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SUNNY SKIES REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS IN
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WHICH WILL BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS
WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

AS MILDER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL
MUCH MILDER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MUCH COLDER IN THE AFTERNOON. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN. WITH THE MUCH
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE
THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE REACHING THE GULF COAST SO ONLY
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE ANY LIGHT RAIN
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH WHICH
WILL START A WARMING TREND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE REGION THURSDAY AND NEXT FRIDAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT THEN LOW CLOUDS WILL
QUICKLY SURGE NORTH AND INTO KMEM AND KJBR AFTER 29/09Z AND INTO
AND KMKL AND KTUP AFTER 29/11Z. CIGS WILL DROP TO IFR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO MVFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD TO THE TAFS ATTM.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 12-18 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY 29/15Z. CONTINUED MENTION OF WIND SHEAR AT
1500 FEET THROUGH ABOUT 29/12Z AT ALL SITES.

SJM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 290310
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
910 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WESTERN LOUISIANA. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SHOULD BE CLOUDY BY 4-6 AM CST. WILL ADJUST SKY CONDITION TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SUNNY SKIES REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS IN
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WHICH WILL BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS
WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

AS MILDER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL
MUCH MILDER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MUCH COLDER IN THE AFTERNOON. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN. WITH THE MUCH
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE
THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE REACHING THE GULF COAST SO ONLY
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE ANY LIGHT RAIN
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH WHICH
WILL START A WARMING TREND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE REGION THURSDAY AND NEXT FRIDAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT THEN LOW CLOUDS WILL
QUICKLY SURGE NORTH AND INTO KMEM AND KJBR AFTER 29/09Z AND INTO
AND KMKL AND KTUP AFTER 29/11Z. CIGS WILL DROP TO IFR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO MVFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD TO THE TAFS ATTM.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 12-18 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY 29/15Z. CONTINUED MENTION OF WIND SHEAR AT
1500 FEET THROUGH ABOUT 29/12Z AT ALL SITES.

SJM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 290037
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
737 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT TEMP...DEWPOINT AND SKY
GRIDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO ROLL
ACROSS PARTS OF NE TN AND SW VA OVERNIGHT. SHOULD NOT HAVE A HUGE
IMPACT ON FORECAST OF OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE
OTHERWISE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             31  57  44  63 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  27  54  41  62 /   0   0  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       29  54  42  62 /   0   0  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              24  52  37  59 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC



000
FXUS64 KMRX 290037
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
737 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT TEMP...DEWPOINT AND SKY
GRIDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO ROLL
ACROSS PARTS OF NE TN AND SW VA OVERNIGHT. SHOULD NOT HAVE A HUGE
IMPACT ON FORECAST OF OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE
OTHERWISE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             31  57  44  63 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  27  54  41  62 /   0   0  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       29  54  42  62 /   0   0  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              24  52  37  59 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC




000
FXUS64 KOHX 290024 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
624 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...WINDS...AND SKY CONDITIONS FOR THIS
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO DO THIS PERIODICALLY THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE FORECAST AND BELOW MENTIONED FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 531 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAFS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
ALLOWING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. TOMORROW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION AT CKV. BNA WILL
SEE SOME OF THOSE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT FLYING
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

REAGAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY TODAY...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
IN MANY SPOTS. EXPECT ANOTHER COUPLE OF WARM DAYS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT TODAY`S SUNSHINE WILL
CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO USHER IN OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW SWINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA ON
SUNDAY BRINGING THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT TO A STALL
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN A SURFACE
HIGH FINALLY FORCES THE WEAK FRONT EAST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER FRONT IS ON THE HEELS OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY
EVENING. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER
50S FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO LOW 50S.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 290024 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
624 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...WINDS...AND SKY CONDITIONS FOR THIS
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO DO THIS PERIODICALLY THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE FORECAST AND BELOW MENTIONED FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 531 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAFS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
ALLOWING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. TOMORROW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION AT CKV. BNA WILL
SEE SOME OF THOSE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT FLYING
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

REAGAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY TODAY...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
IN MANY SPOTS. EXPECT ANOTHER COUPLE OF WARM DAYS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT TODAY`S SUNSHINE WILL
CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO USHER IN OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW SWINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA ON
SUNDAY BRINGING THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT TO A STALL
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN A SURFACE
HIGH FINALLY FORCES THE WEAK FRONT EAST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER FRONT IS ON THE HEELS OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY
EVENING. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER
50S FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO LOW 50S.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KMEG 282339
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
539 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SUNNY SKIES REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS IN
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WHICH WILL BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS
WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

AS MILDER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL
MUCH MILDER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MUCH COLDER IN THE AFTERNOON. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN. WITH THE MUCH
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE
THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE REACHING THE GULF COAST SO ONLY
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE ANY LIGHT RAIN
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH WHICH
WILL START A WARMING TREND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE REGION THURSDAY AND NEXT FRIDAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT THEN LOW CLOUDS WILL
QUICKLY SURGE NORTH AND INTO KMEM AND KJBR AFTER 29/09Z AND INTO
AND KMKL AND KTUP AFTER 29/11Z. CIGS WILL DROP TO IFR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO MVFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD TO THE TAFS ATTM.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 12-18 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY 29/15Z. CONTINUED MENTION OF WIND SHEAR AT
1500 FEET THROUGH ABOUT 29/12Z AT ALL SITES.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 282331
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
531 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAFS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
ALLOWING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. TOMORROW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION AT CKV. BNA WILL
SEE SOME OF THOSE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT FLYING
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

REAGAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY TODAY...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
IN MANY SPOTS. EXPECT ANOTHER COUPLE OF WARM DAYS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT TODAY`S SUNSHINE WILL
CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO USHER IN OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW SWINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA ON
SUNDAY BRINGING THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT TO A STALL
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN A SURFACE
HIGH FINALLY FORCES THE WEAK FRONT EAST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER FRONT IS ON THE HEELS OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY
EVENING. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER
50S FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO LOW 50S.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

10






000
FXUS64 KMRX 282311
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
611 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SATURDAY
LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN MOISTURE...POSSIBLY IN
THE FORM OF SCT/BKN DECK PARTICULARLY AT KCHA. CONFIDENCE LOW AT
THIS TIME FOR MVFR BUT COULD SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS KTYS. HIGHER
CLOUD DECK EXPECTED AT KTRI WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE S/SW AND
PICKING UP A LITTLE IN SPEED.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC




000
FXUS64 KMRX 282311
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
611 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SATURDAY
LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN MOISTURE...POSSIBLY IN
THE FORM OF SCT/BKN DECK PARTICULARLY AT KCHA. CONFIDENCE LOW AT
THIS TIME FOR MVFR BUT COULD SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS KTYS. HIGHER
CLOUD DECK EXPECTED AT KTRI WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE S/SW AND
PICKING UP A LITTLE IN SPEED.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC




000
FXUS64 KMRX 282311
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
611 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SATURDAY
LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN MOISTURE...POSSIBLY IN
THE FORM OF SCT/BKN DECK PARTICULARLY AT KCHA. CONFIDENCE LOW AT
THIS TIME FOR MVFR BUT COULD SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS KTYS. HIGHER
CLOUD DECK EXPECTED AT KTRI WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE S/SW AND
PICKING UP A LITTLE IN SPEED.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC




000
FXUS64 KMRX 282311
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
611 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SATURDAY
LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN MOISTURE...POSSIBLY IN
THE FORM OF SCT/BKN DECK PARTICULARLY AT KCHA. CONFIDENCE LOW AT
THIS TIME FOR MVFR BUT COULD SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS KTYS. HIGHER
CLOUD DECK EXPECTED AT KTRI WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE S/SW AND
PICKING UP A LITTLE IN SPEED.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC




000
FXUS64 KOHX 282200
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
400 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY TODAY...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
IN MANY SPOTS. EXPECT ANOTHER COUPLE OF WARM DAYS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT TODAY`S SUNSHINE WILL
CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO USHER IN OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW SWINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA ON
SUNDAY BRINGING THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT TO A STALL
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN A SURFACE
HIGH FINALLY FORCES THE WEAK FRONT EAST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER FRONT IS ON THE HEELS OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY
EVENING. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER
50S FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO LOW 50S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      35  58  53  65 /   0  10  20  20
CLARKSVILLE    36  58  52  66 /   0  20  20  20
CROSSVILLE     32  53  46  59 /   0  05  10  10
COLUMBIA       35  59  53  65 /   0  10  10  20
LAWRENCEBURG   34  59  52  65 /   0  10  10  20
WAVERLY        37  59  53  66 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11






000
FXUS64 KOHX 282200
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
400 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY TODAY...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
IN MANY SPOTS. EXPECT ANOTHER COUPLE OF WARM DAYS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT TODAY`S SUNSHINE WILL
CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO USHER IN OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW SWINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA ON
SUNDAY BRINGING THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT TO A STALL
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN A SURFACE
HIGH FINALLY FORCES THE WEAK FRONT EAST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER FRONT IS ON THE HEELS OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY
EVENING. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER
50S FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO LOW 50S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      35  58  53  65 /   0  10  20  20
CLARKSVILLE    36  58  52  66 /   0  20  20  20
CROSSVILLE     32  53  46  59 /   0  05  10  10
COLUMBIA       35  59  53  65 /   0  10  10  20
LAWRENCEBURG   34  59  52  65 /   0  10  10  20
WAVERLY        37  59  53  66 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11





000
FXUS64 KMEG 282057
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
257 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SUNNY SKIES REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS IN
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WHICH WILL BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS
WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

AS MILDER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL
MUCH MILDER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MUCH COLDER IN THE AFTERNOON. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN. WITH THE MUCH
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE
THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE REACHING THE GULF COAST SO ONLY
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE ANY LIGHT RAIN
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH WHICH
WILL START A WARMING TREND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE REGION THURSDAY AND NEXT FRIDAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (28/18Z-29/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SLIGHT CHANCE THAT STRATUS AND IFR CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD
INTO KMEM AND KJBR LATE TONIGHT BEFORE 29/12Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING GUSTY MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MS RIVER. WINDS DIMINISHING SOME THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH STILL
CONTINUING AROUND 11 KTS AT KMEM. WINDS INCREASING AGAIN BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT. KEPT IN MENTION OF WIND SHEAR TONIGHT AS WINDS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST STRENGTHEN AT 1500 FT.

STRATUS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 29/12Z
LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP
BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING BECOMING STRONG AND
GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 282057
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
257 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SUNNY SKIES REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS IN
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WHICH WILL BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS
WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

AS MILDER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL
MUCH MILDER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MUCH COLDER IN THE AFTERNOON. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN. WITH THE MUCH
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE
THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE REACHING THE GULF COAST SO ONLY
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE ANY LIGHT RAIN
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH WHICH
WILL START A WARMING TREND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE REGION THURSDAY AND NEXT FRIDAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (28/18Z-29/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SLIGHT CHANCE THAT STRATUS AND IFR CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD
INTO KMEM AND KJBR LATE TONIGHT BEFORE 29/12Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING GUSTY MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MS RIVER. WINDS DIMINISHING SOME THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH STILL
CONTINUING AROUND 11 KTS AT KMEM. WINDS INCREASING AGAIN BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT. KEPT IN MENTION OF WIND SHEAR TONIGHT AS WINDS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST STRENGTHEN AT 1500 FT.

STRATUS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 29/12Z
LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP
BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING BECOMING STRONG AND
GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 282013
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
311 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA SLOWLY MOVING EAST. WHAT LITTLE CLOUD COVER THERE IS OVER
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA SHOULD MOVE NORTH BY EARLY EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND.  WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED AS A COUPLE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS MOVES THROUGH.
THE FIRST FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...LINGERING OVER THE REGION INTO TUESDAY FOR OUR BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS.  A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.  WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS AROUND THE THURSDAY
TIME FRAME WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             31  57  44  63 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  27  54  41  62 /   0   0  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       29  54  42  62 /   0   0  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              24  52  37  59 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW/MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 282013
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
311 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA SLOWLY MOVING EAST. WHAT LITTLE CLOUD COVER THERE IS OVER
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA SHOULD MOVE NORTH BY EARLY EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND.  WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED AS A COUPLE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS MOVES THROUGH.
THE FIRST FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...LINGERING OVER THE REGION INTO TUESDAY FOR OUR BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS.  A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.  WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS AROUND THE THURSDAY
TIME FRAME WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             31  57  44  63 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  27  54  41  62 /   0   0  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       29  54  42  62 /   0   0  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              24  52  37  59 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW/MJB



000
FXUS64 KMEG 281734 AAC
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1134 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 1005 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SKIES ARE SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 50S BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO UPDATE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT
OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TO A POSITION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODIFYING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS
AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY BY MID MORNING SATURDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ABUNDANT SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIFT AS NOTED ON THE
MODEL 290K PRESSURE LEVEL...WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING. THIS WEATHER REGIME WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH.

A BIG CHANGE IS IN STORE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH
INTO THE MID SOUTH...ENTERING NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE
ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. A COLD SHALLOW AIRMASS WILL FILTER
SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ABRUPTLY AS THE
FRONT PASSES AND CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...A LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND KEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT IN PLACE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE
AREA...LIGHT RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS EVEN SOME
POTENTIAL THAT THE FREEZING LINE WORKS SOUTH TO NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY EVENING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO HOW FAR SOUTH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH...WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS FOR NOW. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF POTENTIAL LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN INTO THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...BUT IT ONLY
TAKES MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO LEAD TO TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. THIS
WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE FORECAST REFINED AS NEEDED. PLAN TO ADD
MENTION INTO THE HWO THIS MORNING.

THE FRONT THAT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY WILL QUICKLY LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES TO THE EAST.
THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES EVERY
COUPLE OF DAYS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD QUICKLY WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY
ALSO BE A RETURN TO RAIN CHANCES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (28/18Z-29/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SLIGHT CHANCE THAT STRATUS AND IFR CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD
INTO KMEM AND KJBR LATE TONIGHT BEFORE 29/12Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING GUSTY MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MS RIVER. WINDS DIMINISHING SOME THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH STILL
CONTINUING AROUND 11 KTS AT KMEM. WINDS INCREASING AGAIN BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT. KEPT IN MENTION OF WIND SHEAR TONIGHT AS WINDS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST STRENGTHEN AT 1500 FT.

STRATUS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 29/12Z
LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP
BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING BECOMING STRONG AND
GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 281734 AAC
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1134 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 1005 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SKIES ARE SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 50S BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO UPDATE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT
OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TO A POSITION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODIFYING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS
AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY BY MID MORNING SATURDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ABUNDANT SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIFT AS NOTED ON THE
MODEL 290K PRESSURE LEVEL...WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING. THIS WEATHER REGIME WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH.

A BIG CHANGE IS IN STORE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH
INTO THE MID SOUTH...ENTERING NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE
ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. A COLD SHALLOW AIRMASS WILL FILTER
SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ABRUPTLY AS THE
FRONT PASSES AND CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...A LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND KEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT IN PLACE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE
AREA...LIGHT RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS EVEN SOME
POTENTIAL THAT THE FREEZING LINE WORKS SOUTH TO NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY EVENING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO HOW FAR SOUTH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH...WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS FOR NOW. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF POTENTIAL LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN INTO THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...BUT IT ONLY
TAKES MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO LEAD TO TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. THIS
WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE FORECAST REFINED AS NEEDED. PLAN TO ADD
MENTION INTO THE HWO THIS MORNING.

THE FRONT THAT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY WILL QUICKLY LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES TO THE EAST.
THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES EVERY
COUPLE OF DAYS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD QUICKLY WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY
ALSO BE A RETURN TO RAIN CHANCES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (28/18Z-29/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SLIGHT CHANCE THAT STRATUS AND IFR CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD
INTO KMEM AND KJBR LATE TONIGHT BEFORE 29/12Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING GUSTY MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MS RIVER. WINDS DIMINISHING SOME THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH STILL
CONTINUING AROUND 11 KTS AT KMEM. WINDS INCREASING AGAIN BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT. KEPT IN MENTION OF WIND SHEAR TONIGHT AS WINDS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST STRENGTHEN AT 1500 FT.

STRATUS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 29/12Z
LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP
BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING BECOMING STRONG AND
GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 281718
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1218 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 281718
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1218 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 281718
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1218 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 281718
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1218 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW




000
FXUS64 KOHX 281652
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1052 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO OUR EAST WITH
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTING TO ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. SKIES HAVE FULLY CLEARED OUT AND WE CAN EXPECT VFR WX
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HRS. LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY BY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SURFACE SYSTEM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

UPDATE...

12Z AVIATION UPDATE.

AVIATION...

VFR. WINDS MAY PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AT KCKV OUT OF THE SOUTH
AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS AT KBNA AND KCSV THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR WITH ANY PASSING CLOUDS TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR WHAT SEEMS LIKE
THE ENTIRE MONTH OF NOVEMBER KEEPING TEMPS 6 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FINALLY BECOMES ZONAL ON SATURDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE WEEKEND WHICH MEANS WARMING TEMPS. SO
ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

1031 MBAR SURFACE HIGH INITIALLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN U.S TODAY WILL
SLIP EAST AND ALIGN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY 12Z SATURDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THROUGH THE MID STATE LATE TONIGHT WITH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
ON SUNDAY A RATHER STRONG 1040 MBAR SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP DOWN
FROM WESTERN CANADA AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT THIS WAY. FRONT WILL BE
NEAR MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY EARLY MONDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY JUST SOUTH
OF TENNESSEE ON TUESDAY. THERES A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAINSHOWERS IN
THE MID STATE...MAINLY NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALL OF THE MID STATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT
ACTUALLY LOOKS TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO OUR NORTH AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




000
FXUS64 KOHX 281652
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1052 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO OUR EAST WITH
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTING TO ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. SKIES HAVE FULLY CLEARED OUT AND WE CAN EXPECT VFR WX
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HRS. LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY BY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SURFACE SYSTEM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

UPDATE...

12Z AVIATION UPDATE.

AVIATION...

VFR. WINDS MAY PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AT KCKV OUT OF THE SOUTH
AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS AT KBNA AND KCSV THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR WITH ANY PASSING CLOUDS TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR WHAT SEEMS LIKE
THE ENTIRE MONTH OF NOVEMBER KEEPING TEMPS 6 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FINALLY BECOMES ZONAL ON SATURDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE WEEKEND WHICH MEANS WARMING TEMPS. SO
ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

1031 MBAR SURFACE HIGH INITIALLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN U.S TODAY WILL
SLIP EAST AND ALIGN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY 12Z SATURDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THROUGH THE MID STATE LATE TONIGHT WITH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
ON SUNDAY A RATHER STRONG 1040 MBAR SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP DOWN
FROM WESTERN CANADA AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT THIS WAY. FRONT WILL BE
NEAR MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY EARLY MONDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY JUST SOUTH
OF TENNESSEE ON TUESDAY. THERES A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAINSHOWERS IN
THE MID STATE...MAINLY NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALL OF THE MID STATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT
ACTUALLY LOOKS TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO OUR NORTH AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KMEG 281605
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1005 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 50S BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO UPDATE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT
OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TO A POSITION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODIFYING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS
AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY BY MID MORNING SATURDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ABUNDANT SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIFT AS NOTED ON THE
MODEL 290K PRESSURE LEVEL...WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING. THIS WEATHER REGIME WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH.

A BIG CHANGE IS IN STORE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH
INTO THE MID SOUTH...ENTERING NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE
ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. A COLD SHALLOW AIRMASS WILL FILTER
SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ABRUPTLY AS THE
FRONT PASSES AND CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...A LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND KEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT IN PLACE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE
AREA...LIGHT RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS EVEN SOME
POTENTIAL THAT THE FREEZING LINE WORKS SOUTH TO NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY EVENING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO HOW FAR SOUTH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH...WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS FOR NOW. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF POTENTIAL LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN INTO THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...BUT IT ONLY
TAKES MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO LEAD TO TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. THIS
WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE FORECAST REFINED AS NEEDED. PLAN TO ADD
MENTION INTO THE HWO THIS MORNING.

THE FRONT THAT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY WILL QUICKLY LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES TO THE EAST.
THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES EVERY
COUPLE OF DAYS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD QUICKLY WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY
ALSO BE A RETURN TO RAIN CHANCES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THOUGH THERE IS A
SMALL THREAT THAT IFR STRATUS MAY BECOME BROKEN AT MEM AND JBR AT
THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. BETTER THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL
OCCUR IN THE 29/12Z-29/18Z TIME FRAME. BIGGEST CONCERN TODAY WILL
BE SOUTH WINDS AT MEM...JBR...AND MKL GUSTING TO 16-22KTS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY BY SUNSET...BUT STAYING ABOVE THE 8 KT
FEDEX THRESHOLD AT MEM. STRONGER WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT AROUND 2KFT...CAUSING A WIND SHEAR THREAT.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 281605
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1005 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 50S BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO UPDATE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT
OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TO A POSITION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODIFYING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS
AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY BY MID MORNING SATURDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ABUNDANT SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIFT AS NOTED ON THE
MODEL 290K PRESSURE LEVEL...WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING. THIS WEATHER REGIME WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH.

A BIG CHANGE IS IN STORE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH
INTO THE MID SOUTH...ENTERING NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE
ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. A COLD SHALLOW AIRMASS WILL FILTER
SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ABRUPTLY AS THE
FRONT PASSES AND CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...A LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND KEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT IN PLACE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE
AREA...LIGHT RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS EVEN SOME
POTENTIAL THAT THE FREEZING LINE WORKS SOUTH TO NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY EVENING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO HOW FAR SOUTH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH...WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS FOR NOW. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF POTENTIAL LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN INTO THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...BUT IT ONLY
TAKES MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO LEAD TO TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. THIS
WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE FORECAST REFINED AS NEEDED. PLAN TO ADD
MENTION INTO THE HWO THIS MORNING.

THE FRONT THAT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY WILL QUICKLY LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES TO THE EAST.
THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES EVERY
COUPLE OF DAYS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD QUICKLY WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY
ALSO BE A RETURN TO RAIN CHANCES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THOUGH THERE IS A
SMALL THREAT THAT IFR STRATUS MAY BECOME BROKEN AT MEM AND JBR AT
THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. BETTER THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL
OCCUR IN THE 29/12Z-29/18Z TIME FRAME. BIGGEST CONCERN TODAY WILL
BE SOUTH WINDS AT MEM...JBR...AND MKL GUSTING TO 16-22KTS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY BY SUNSET...BUT STAYING ABOVE THE 8 KT
FEDEX THRESHOLD AT MEM. STRONGER WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT AROUND 2KFT...CAUSING A WIND SHEAR THREAT.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 281605
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1005 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 50S BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO UPDATE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT
OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TO A POSITION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODIFYING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS
AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY BY MID MORNING SATURDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ABUNDANT SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIFT AS NOTED ON THE
MODEL 290K PRESSURE LEVEL...WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING. THIS WEATHER REGIME WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH.

A BIG CHANGE IS IN STORE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH
INTO THE MID SOUTH...ENTERING NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE
ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. A COLD SHALLOW AIRMASS WILL FILTER
SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ABRUPTLY AS THE
FRONT PASSES AND CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...A LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND KEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT IN PLACE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE
AREA...LIGHT RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS EVEN SOME
POTENTIAL THAT THE FREEZING LINE WORKS SOUTH TO NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY EVENING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO HOW FAR SOUTH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH...WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS FOR NOW. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF POTENTIAL LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN INTO THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...BUT IT ONLY
TAKES MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO LEAD TO TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. THIS
WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE FORECAST REFINED AS NEEDED. PLAN TO ADD
MENTION INTO THE HWO THIS MORNING.

THE FRONT THAT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY WILL QUICKLY LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES TO THE EAST.
THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES EVERY
COUPLE OF DAYS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD QUICKLY WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY
ALSO BE A RETURN TO RAIN CHANCES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THOUGH THERE IS A
SMALL THREAT THAT IFR STRATUS MAY BECOME BROKEN AT MEM AND JBR AT
THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. BETTER THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL
OCCUR IN THE 29/12Z-29/18Z TIME FRAME. BIGGEST CONCERN TODAY WILL
BE SOUTH WINDS AT MEM...JBR...AND MKL GUSTING TO 16-22KTS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY BY SUNSET...BUT STAYING ABOVE THE 8 KT
FEDEX THRESHOLD AT MEM. STRONGER WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT AROUND 2KFT...CAUSING A WIND SHEAR THREAT.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 281605
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1005 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 50S BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO UPDATE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT
OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TO A POSITION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODIFYING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS
AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY BY MID MORNING SATURDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ABUNDANT SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIFT AS NOTED ON THE
MODEL 290K PRESSURE LEVEL...WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING. THIS WEATHER REGIME WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH.

A BIG CHANGE IS IN STORE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH
INTO THE MID SOUTH...ENTERING NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE
ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. A COLD SHALLOW AIRMASS WILL FILTER
SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ABRUPTLY AS THE
FRONT PASSES AND CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...A LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND KEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT IN PLACE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE
AREA...LIGHT RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS EVEN SOME
POTENTIAL THAT THE FREEZING LINE WORKS SOUTH TO NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY EVENING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO HOW FAR SOUTH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH...WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS FOR NOW. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF POTENTIAL LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN INTO THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...BUT IT ONLY
TAKES MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO LEAD TO TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. THIS
WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE FORECAST REFINED AS NEEDED. PLAN TO ADD
MENTION INTO THE HWO THIS MORNING.

THE FRONT THAT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY WILL QUICKLY LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES TO THE EAST.
THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES EVERY
COUPLE OF DAYS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD QUICKLY WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY
ALSO BE A RETURN TO RAIN CHANCES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THOUGH THERE IS A
SMALL THREAT THAT IFR STRATUS MAY BECOME BROKEN AT MEM AND JBR AT
THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. BETTER THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL
OCCUR IN THE 29/12Z-29/18Z TIME FRAME. BIGGEST CONCERN TODAY WILL
BE SOUTH WINDS AT MEM...JBR...AND MKL GUSTING TO 16-22KTS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY BY SUNSET...BUT STAYING ABOVE THE 8 KT
FEDEX THRESHOLD AT MEM. STRONGER WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT AROUND 2KFT...CAUSING A WIND SHEAR THREAT.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 281447
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
947 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...OVERALL FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. ONLY CONCERN FOR NOW
IS THE MIDLEVEL DECK MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             47  31  58  44 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  41  27  55  40 /   0   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       41  29  55  41 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              37  24  52  34 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 281447
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
947 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...OVERALL FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. ONLY CONCERN FOR NOW
IS THE MIDLEVEL DECK MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             47  31  58  44 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  41  27  55  40 /   0   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       41  29  55  41 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              37  24  52  34 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW



000
FXUS64 KMRX 281141 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
641 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE TO REDUCE CLOUD COVER. LOW CLOUDS HAVE
CLEARED ACROSS TYS AND CHA. ACROSS TRI...LOW CLOUDS CLEARING...BUT
AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA KEEPING SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             47  31  56  44 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  41  27  56  40 /   0   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       41  29  53  41 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              37  24  54  34 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 281141 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
641 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE TO REDUCE CLOUD COVER. LOW CLOUDS HAVE
CLEARED ACROSS TYS AND CHA. ACROSS TRI...LOW CLOUDS CLEARING...BUT
AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA KEEPING SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             47  31  56  44 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  41  27  56  40 /   0   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       41  29  53  41 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              37  24  54  34 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 281134
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
534 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT
OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TO A POSITION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODIFYING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS
AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY BY MID MORNING SATURDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ABUNDANT SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIFT AS NOTED ON THE
MODEL 290K PRESSURE LEVEL...WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING. THIS WEATHER REGIME WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH.

A BIG CHANGE IS IN STORE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH
INTO THE MID SOUTH...ENTERING NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE
ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. A COLD SHALLOW AIRMASS WILL FILTER
SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ABRUPTLY AS THE
FRONT PASSES AND CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...A LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND KEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT IN PLACE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE
AREA...LIGHT RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS EVEN SOME
POTENTIAL THAT THE FREEZING LINE WORKS SOUTH TO NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY EVENING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO HOW FAR SOUTH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH...WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS FOR NOW. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF POTENTIAL LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN INTO THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...BUT IT ONLY
TAKES MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO LEAD TO TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. THIS
WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE FORECAST REFINED AS NEEDED. PLAN TO ADD
MENTION INTO THE HWO THIS MORNING.

THE FRONT THAT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY WILL QUICKLY LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES TO THE EAST.
THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES EVERY
COUPLE OF DAYS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD QUICKLY WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY
ALSO BE A RETURN TO RAIN CHANCES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THOUGH THERE IS A
SMALL THREAT THAT IFR STRATUS MAY BECOME BROKEN AT MEM AND JBR AT
THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. BETTER THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL
OCCUR IN THE 29/12Z-29/18Z TIME FRAME. BIGGEST CONCERN TODAY WILL
BE SOUTH WINDS AT MEM...JBR...AND MKL GUSTING TO 16-22KTS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY BY SUNSET...BUT STAYING ABOVE THE 8 KT
FEDEX THRESHOLD AT MEM. STRONGER WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT AROUND 2KFT...CAUSING A WIND SHEAR THREAT.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 281134
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
534 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT
OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TO A POSITION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODIFYING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS
AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY BY MID MORNING SATURDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ABUNDANT SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIFT AS NOTED ON THE
MODEL 290K PRESSURE LEVEL...WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING. THIS WEATHER REGIME WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH.

A BIG CHANGE IS IN STORE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH
INTO THE MID SOUTH...ENTERING NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE
ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. A COLD SHALLOW AIRMASS WILL FILTER
SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ABRUPTLY AS THE
FRONT PASSES AND CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...A LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND KEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT IN PLACE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE
AREA...LIGHT RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS EVEN SOME
POTENTIAL THAT THE FREEZING LINE WORKS SOUTH TO NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY EVENING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO HOW FAR SOUTH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH...WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS FOR NOW. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF POTENTIAL LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN INTO THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...BUT IT ONLY
TAKES MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO LEAD TO TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. THIS
WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE FORECAST REFINED AS NEEDED. PLAN TO ADD
MENTION INTO THE HWO THIS MORNING.

THE FRONT THAT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY WILL QUICKLY LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES TO THE EAST.
THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES EVERY
COUPLE OF DAYS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD QUICKLY WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY
ALSO BE A RETURN TO RAIN CHANCES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THOUGH THERE IS A
SMALL THREAT THAT IFR STRATUS MAY BECOME BROKEN AT MEM AND JBR AT
THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. BETTER THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL
OCCUR IN THE 29/12Z-29/18Z TIME FRAME. BIGGEST CONCERN TODAY WILL
BE SOUTH WINDS AT MEM...JBR...AND MKL GUSTING TO 16-22KTS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY BY SUNSET...BUT STAYING ABOVE THE 8 KT
FEDEX THRESHOLD AT MEM. STRONGER WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT AROUND 2KFT...CAUSING A WIND SHEAR THREAT.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 281134
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
534 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT
OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TO A POSITION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODIFYING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS
AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY BY MID MORNING SATURDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ABUNDANT SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIFT AS NOTED ON THE
MODEL 290K PRESSURE LEVEL...WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING. THIS WEATHER REGIME WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH.

A BIG CHANGE IS IN STORE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH
INTO THE MID SOUTH...ENTERING NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE
ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. A COLD SHALLOW AIRMASS WILL FILTER
SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ABRUPTLY AS THE
FRONT PASSES AND CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...A LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND KEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT IN PLACE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE
AREA...LIGHT RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS EVEN SOME
POTENTIAL THAT THE FREEZING LINE WORKS SOUTH TO NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY EVENING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO HOW FAR SOUTH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH...WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS FOR NOW. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF POTENTIAL LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN INTO THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...BUT IT ONLY
TAKES MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO LEAD TO TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. THIS
WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE FORECAST REFINED AS NEEDED. PLAN TO ADD
MENTION INTO THE HWO THIS MORNING.

THE FRONT THAT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY WILL QUICKLY LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES TO THE EAST.
THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES EVERY
COUPLE OF DAYS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD QUICKLY WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY
ALSO BE A RETURN TO RAIN CHANCES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THOUGH THERE IS A
SMALL THREAT THAT IFR STRATUS MAY BECOME BROKEN AT MEM AND JBR AT
THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. BETTER THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL
OCCUR IN THE 29/12Z-29/18Z TIME FRAME. BIGGEST CONCERN TODAY WILL
BE SOUTH WINDS AT MEM...JBR...AND MKL GUSTING TO 16-22KTS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY BY SUNSET...BUT STAYING ABOVE THE 8 KT
FEDEX THRESHOLD AT MEM. STRONGER WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT AROUND 2KFT...CAUSING A WIND SHEAR THREAT.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 281134
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
534 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT
OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TO A POSITION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODIFYING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS
AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY BY MID MORNING SATURDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ABUNDANT SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIFT AS NOTED ON THE
MODEL 290K PRESSURE LEVEL...WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING. THIS WEATHER REGIME WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH.

A BIG CHANGE IS IN STORE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH
INTO THE MID SOUTH...ENTERING NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE
ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. A COLD SHALLOW AIRMASS WILL FILTER
SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ABRUPTLY AS THE
FRONT PASSES AND CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...A LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND KEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT IN PLACE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE
AREA...LIGHT RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS EVEN SOME
POTENTIAL THAT THE FREEZING LINE WORKS SOUTH TO NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY EVENING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO HOW FAR SOUTH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH...WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS FOR NOW. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF POTENTIAL LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN INTO THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...BUT IT ONLY
TAKES MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO LEAD TO TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. THIS
WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE FORECAST REFINED AS NEEDED. PLAN TO ADD
MENTION INTO THE HWO THIS MORNING.

THE FRONT THAT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY WILL QUICKLY LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES TO THE EAST.
THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES EVERY
COUPLE OF DAYS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD QUICKLY WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY
ALSO BE A RETURN TO RAIN CHANCES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THOUGH THERE IS A
SMALL THREAT THAT IFR STRATUS MAY BECOME BROKEN AT MEM AND JBR AT
THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. BETTER THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL
OCCUR IN THE 29/12Z-29/18Z TIME FRAME. BIGGEST CONCERN TODAY WILL
BE SOUTH WINDS AT MEM...JBR...AND MKL GUSTING TO 16-22KTS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY BY SUNSET...BUT STAYING ABOVE THE 8 KT
FEDEX THRESHOLD AT MEM. STRONGER WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT AROUND 2KFT...CAUSING A WIND SHEAR THREAT.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 281130
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...

12Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. WINDS MAY PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AT KCKV OUT OF THE SOUTH
AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS AT KBNA AND KCSV THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR WITH ANY PASSING CLOUDS TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR WHAT SEEMS LIKE
THE ENTIRE MONTH OF NOVEMBER KEEPING TEMPS 6 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FINALLY BECOMES ZONAL ON SATURDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE WEEKEND WHICH MEANS WARMING TEMPS. SO
ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

1031 MBAR SURFACE HIGH INITIALLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN U.S TODAY WILL
SLIP EAST AND ALIGN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY 12Z SATURDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THROUGH THE MID STATE LATE TONIGHT WITH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
ON SUNDAY A RATHER STRONG 1040 MBAR SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP DOWN
FROM WESTERN CANADA AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT THIS WAY. FRONT WILL BE
NEAR MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY EARLY MONDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY JUST SOUTH
OF TENNESSEE ON TUESDAY. THERES A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAINSHOWERS IN
THE MID STATE...MAINLY NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALL OF THE MID STATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT
ACTUALLY LOOKS TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO OUR NORTH AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KOHX 281130
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...

12Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. WINDS MAY PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AT KCKV OUT OF THE SOUTH
AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS AT KBNA AND KCSV THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR WITH ANY PASSING CLOUDS TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR WHAT SEEMS LIKE
THE ENTIRE MONTH OF NOVEMBER KEEPING TEMPS 6 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FINALLY BECOMES ZONAL ON SATURDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE WEEKEND WHICH MEANS WARMING TEMPS. SO
ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

1031 MBAR SURFACE HIGH INITIALLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN U.S TODAY WILL
SLIP EAST AND ALIGN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY 12Z SATURDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THROUGH THE MID STATE LATE TONIGHT WITH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
ON SUNDAY A RATHER STRONG 1040 MBAR SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP DOWN
FROM WESTERN CANADA AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT THIS WAY. FRONT WILL BE
NEAR MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY EARLY MONDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY JUST SOUTH
OF TENNESSEE ON TUESDAY. THERES A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAINSHOWERS IN
THE MID STATE...MAINLY NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALL OF THE MID STATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT
ACTUALLY LOOKS TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO OUR NORTH AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KMRX 281118
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
618 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED ACROSS CHA AND TYS...BUT REMAINS
AT TRI. MARGINAL MVFR-VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT TRI THROUGH 14-
16Z FRIDAY. AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS TRI THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. DUE TO
SURFACE RIDGING...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 281118
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
618 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED ACROSS CHA AND TYS...BUT REMAINS
AT TRI. MARGINAL MVFR-VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT TRI THROUGH 14-
16Z FRIDAY. AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS TRI THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. DUE TO
SURFACE RIDGING...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 281051
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
451 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT
OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TO A POSITION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODIFYING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS
AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY BY MID MORNING SATURDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ABUNDANT SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIFT AS NOTED ON THE
MODEL 290K PRESSURE LEVEL...WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING. THIS WEATHER REGIME WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH.

A BIG CHANGE IS IN STORE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH
INTO THE MID SOUTH...ENTERING NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE
ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. A COLD SHALLOW AIRMASS WILL FILTER
SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ABRUPTLY AS THE
FRONT PASSES AND CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...A LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND KEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT IN PLACE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE
AREA...LIGHT RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS EVEN SOME
POTENTIAL THAT THE FREEZING LINE WORKS SOUTH TO NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY EVENING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO HOW FAR SOUTH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH...WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS FOR NOW. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF POTENTIAL LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN INTO THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...BUT IT ONLY
TAKES MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO LEAD TO TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. THIS
WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE FORECAST REFINED AS NEEDED. PLAN TO ADD
MENTION INTO THE HWO THIS MORNING.

THE FRONT THAT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY WILL QUICKLY LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES TO THE EAST.
THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES EVERY
COUPLE OF DAYS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD QUICKLY WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY
ALSO BE A RETURN TO RAIN CHANCES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CALM WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO 8-14 KTS BY 17-19Z. SOME GUSTS WILL
OCCUR AT KJBR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH
SOME AFTER 00Z.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 281051
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
451 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT
OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TO A POSITION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODIFYING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS
AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY BY MID MORNING SATURDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ABUNDANT SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIFT AS NOTED ON THE
MODEL 290K PRESSURE LEVEL...WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING. THIS WEATHER REGIME WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH.

A BIG CHANGE IS IN STORE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH
INTO THE MID SOUTH...ENTERING NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE
ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. A COLD SHALLOW AIRMASS WILL FILTER
SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ABRUPTLY AS THE
FRONT PASSES AND CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...A LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND KEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT IN PLACE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE
AREA...LIGHT RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS EVEN SOME
POTENTIAL THAT THE FREEZING LINE WORKS SOUTH TO NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY EVENING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO HOW FAR SOUTH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH...WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS FOR NOW. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF POTENTIAL LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN INTO THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...BUT IT ONLY
TAKES MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO LEAD TO TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. THIS
WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE FORECAST REFINED AS NEEDED. PLAN TO ADD
MENTION INTO THE HWO THIS MORNING.

THE FRONT THAT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY WILL QUICKLY LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES TO THE EAST.
THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES EVERY
COUPLE OF DAYS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD QUICKLY WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY
ALSO BE A RETURN TO RAIN CHANCES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CALM WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO 8-14 KTS BY 17-19Z. SOME GUSTS WILL
OCCUR AT KJBR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH
SOME AFTER 00Z.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 280816
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
316 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CLOUD
COVER. LOW-CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT AN
AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGHT HE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL LIGHT FLURRIES CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-MORNING OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA..
NORTHERN TENNESSEE AND THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS.

FOR TONIGHT...SKY CLEARS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
RIDGING BUILDING IN BRINGING WITH IT WARMER TEMPS. SHOULD CONTINUE
THIS TREND THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MODELS
WANT TO GENERATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT. HAVE BROUGHT MENTION OF THIS IN THE NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY BUT THINK IF ANYTHING DOES FALL IT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND ONLY AMOUNT TO A TRACE OR SLIGHTLY MORE.
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN HAPPENS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ON
MONDAY. COULD SEE MODERATE RAINFALL RATES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE IN OUR NORTHERN
AREAS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPS ON MONDAY AS FRONT COULD MAKE HIGH
TEMP FORECAST TRICKY ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. FRONT SHOULD BE
THROUGH THE AREA BY OVERNIGHT CAUSING TEMPS TO COOL BY ABOUT 5 - 10
DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS AFTER THAT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK, BEFORE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN COMES WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA JUST BEYOND
THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             47  31  56  44 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  41  27  56  40 /   0   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       41  29  53  41 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              37  24  54  34 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOHX 280814
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
214 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR WHAT SEEMS LIKE
THE ENTIRE MONTH OF NOVEMBER KEEPING TEMPS 6 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FINALLY BECOMES ZONAL ON SATURDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE WEEKEND WHICH MEANS WARMING TEMPS. SO
ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

1031 MBAR SURFACE HIGH INITIALLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN U.S TODAY WILL
SLIP EAST AND ALIGN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY 12Z SATURDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THROUGH THE MID STATE LATE TONIGHT WITH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
ON SUNDAY A RATHER STRONG 1040 MBAR SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP DOWN
FROM WESTERN CANADA AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT THIS WAY. FRONT WILL BE
NEAR MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY EARLY MONDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY JUST SOUTH
OF TENNESSEE ON TUESDAY. THERES A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAINSHOWERS IN
THE MID STATE...MAINLY NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALL OF THE MID STATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT
ACTUALLY LOOKS TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO OUR NORTH AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      46  35  56  53 /   0   0  05  10
CLARKSVILLE    48  35  57  54 /   0   0  20  20
CROSSVILLE     41  31  51  47 /   0   0  05  10
COLUMBIA       48  35  57  52 /   0   0  05  10
LAWRENCEBURG   50  34  58  50 /   0   0  05  10
WAVERLY        48  36  58  55 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 280814
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
214 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR WHAT SEEMS LIKE
THE ENTIRE MONTH OF NOVEMBER KEEPING TEMPS 6 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FINALLY BECOMES ZONAL ON SATURDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE WEEKEND WHICH MEANS WARMING TEMPS. SO
ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

1031 MBAR SURFACE HIGH INITIALLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN U.S TODAY WILL
SLIP EAST AND ALIGN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY 12Z SATURDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THROUGH THE MID STATE LATE TONIGHT WITH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
ON SUNDAY A RATHER STRONG 1040 MBAR SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP DOWN
FROM WESTERN CANADA AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT THIS WAY. FRONT WILL BE
NEAR MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY EARLY MONDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY JUST SOUTH
OF TENNESSEE ON TUESDAY. THERES A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAINSHOWERS IN
THE MID STATE...MAINLY NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALL OF THE MID STATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT
ACTUALLY LOOKS TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO OUR NORTH AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      46  35  56  53 /   0   0  05  10
CLARKSVILLE    48  35  57  54 /   0   0  20  20
CROSSVILLE     41  31  51  47 /   0   0  05  10
COLUMBIA       48  35  57  52 /   0   0  05  10
LAWRENCEBURG   50  34  58  50 /   0   0  05  10
WAVERLY        48  36  58  55 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KMRX 280536
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1236 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.AVIATION...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT TRI AND TYS
THROUGH 12-15Z FRIDAY. AT CHA...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH
CLOUDS DISSIPATING BETWEEN 07-08Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
MOST OF FRIDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN SURFACE AND ALOFT.  DUE TO
SURFACE RIDGING...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THE REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 280536
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1236 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.AVIATION...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT TRI AND TYS
THROUGH 12-15Z FRIDAY. AT CHA...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH
CLOUDS DISSIPATING BETWEEN 07-08Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
MOST OF FRIDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN SURFACE AND ALOFT.  DUE TO
SURFACE RIDGING...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THE REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 280535 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1135 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
VFR/MVFR CEILINGS CKV/CSV SHOULD ERODE BY 28/08Z WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN VFR BKN AC/CI CEILINGS ACROSS
AREA 28/07Z-28/17Z. DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH BUILDING RIDGING
INFLUENCES 28/17Z-29/06Z WILL MAINLY RESULT IN VFR/SKC CONDITIONS.
SFC WINDS SHIFTING FROM NW-N 5KTS OR LESS TO S AROUND 5KT BY 28/15Z...
EXPECT CKV WHERE INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INFLUENCES WILL RESULT
IN GUSTS TO AROUND 18KTS 28/19Z-29/00Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 601 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL ERODE 28/02Z E - 28/05Z W AS A DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS TO WORK
INTO MID STATE. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA
28/10Z-28/17Z RESULTING IN VFR ALTOSTRATUS CEILINGS. DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES WILL RESULT 28/17Z-28/24Z IN VFR/SKC
CONDITIONS THRU 28/24Z WITH SFC WINDS SHIFTING FROM NW-N 5KTS OR LESS TO S
AROUND 5KT...EXPECT FOR CSV WHERE INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INFLUENCES
WILL RESULT IN GUSTS AROUND 18KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 135 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO COVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. CLEARING LINE
IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD, AND IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BULK OF THE
MID STATE WILL SCATTER OUT BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT TO OUR EAST TOMORROW AND BRING ABOUT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WARMING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH READINGS HITTING THE 60`S MOST AREAS ON
SUNDAY. THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, AND WILL KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED POP`S IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID-WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN
ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK, SO LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
STABILIZE AROUND NORMAL VALUES FROM MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 280535 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1135 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
VFR/MVFR CEILINGS CKV/CSV SHOULD ERODE BY 28/08Z WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN VFR BKN AC/CI CEILINGS ACROSS
AREA 28/07Z-28/17Z. DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH BUILDING RIDGING
INFLUENCES 28/17Z-29/06Z WILL MAINLY RESULT IN VFR/SKC CONDITIONS.
SFC WINDS SHIFTING FROM NW-N 5KTS OR LESS TO S AROUND 5KT BY 28/15Z...
EXPECT CKV WHERE INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INFLUENCES WILL RESULT
IN GUSTS TO AROUND 18KTS 28/19Z-29/00Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 601 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL ERODE 28/02Z E - 28/05Z W AS A DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS TO WORK
INTO MID STATE. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA
28/10Z-28/17Z RESULTING IN VFR ALTOSTRATUS CEILINGS. DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES WILL RESULT 28/17Z-28/24Z IN VFR/SKC
CONDITIONS THRU 28/24Z WITH SFC WINDS SHIFTING FROM NW-N 5KTS OR LESS TO S
AROUND 5KT...EXPECT FOR CSV WHERE INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INFLUENCES
WILL RESULT IN GUSTS AROUND 18KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 135 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO COVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. CLEARING LINE
IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD, AND IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BULK OF THE
MID STATE WILL SCATTER OUT BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT TO OUR EAST TOMORROW AND BRING ABOUT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WARMING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH READINGS HITTING THE 60`S MOST AREAS ON
SUNDAY. THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, AND WILL KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED POP`S IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID-WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN
ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK, SO LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
STABILIZE AROUND NORMAL VALUES FROM MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KMEG 280500
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1100 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE... /ISSUED 918 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

9PM SURFACE MAP SHOWED A 1033MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE ARKLAMISS...THROUGH WEST TN AND WESTERN KY. WINDS OVER
THE MIDSOUTH WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 20S NEAR THE TN
RIVER TO THE MID 30S AT THE MEMPHIS AIRPORT AND CLARKSDALE MS.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE SURFACE TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS TO THE
EAST... RESIDING OVER MIDDLE AND EAST TN BY SUNRISE. THIS WILL
RETURN WINDS TO THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS THE
TN RIVER VALLEY.

FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER THIS EVENING TO LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS
BY A CATEGORY OR TWO OR TWO. WINDS OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY WILL
BE SLOWEST TO TEMPS NEAR THE TN RIVER WILL LIKELY DIP TO NEAR 20
DEGREES OVERNIGHT. TEMPS OVER EASTERN AR WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY
AND MAY CLIMB A BIT IN RESPONSE TO BETTER MIXING AND ARRIVAL OF
HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

PWB

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SOME CLOUDS REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE COOL FOR
LATE NOVEMBER WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION AND KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE QUITE CHILLY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FRIDAY
MORNING IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE SURFACE HIGHS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL HELP BRING MILDER
AIR IN THE REGION WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN
THE 50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER AS WELL WITH SOUTH WINDS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE RATHER MILD WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION...SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE RATHER WARM
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE 50S.
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY WILL SEEM QUITE PLEASANT WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL START TO APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS WILL BE QUITE MILD MONDAY
MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST PLACES IN THE FORECAST AREA HAVING HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY MORNING`S
LOWS.

EVEN THOUGH COOLER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION THERE WILL
STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS
DURING THIS PERIOD.

ARS

&&

AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CALM WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO 8-14 KTS BY 17-19Z. SOME GUSTS WILL
OCCUR AT KJBR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH
SOME AFTER 00Z.

KRM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 280500
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1100 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE... /ISSUED 918 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

9PM SURFACE MAP SHOWED A 1033MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE ARKLAMISS...THROUGH WEST TN AND WESTERN KY. WINDS OVER
THE MIDSOUTH WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 20S NEAR THE TN
RIVER TO THE MID 30S AT THE MEMPHIS AIRPORT AND CLARKSDALE MS.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE SURFACE TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS TO THE
EAST... RESIDING OVER MIDDLE AND EAST TN BY SUNRISE. THIS WILL
RETURN WINDS TO THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS THE
TN RIVER VALLEY.

FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER THIS EVENING TO LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS
BY A CATEGORY OR TWO OR TWO. WINDS OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY WILL
BE SLOWEST TO TEMPS NEAR THE TN RIVER WILL LIKELY DIP TO NEAR 20
DEGREES OVERNIGHT. TEMPS OVER EASTERN AR WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY
AND MAY CLIMB A BIT IN RESPONSE TO BETTER MIXING AND ARRIVAL OF
HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

PWB

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SOME CLOUDS REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE COOL FOR
LATE NOVEMBER WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION AND KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE QUITE CHILLY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FRIDAY
MORNING IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE SURFACE HIGHS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL HELP BRING MILDER
AIR IN THE REGION WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN
THE 50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER AS WELL WITH SOUTH WINDS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE RATHER MILD WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION...SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE RATHER WARM
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE 50S.
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY WILL SEEM QUITE PLEASANT WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL START TO APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS WILL BE QUITE MILD MONDAY
MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST PLACES IN THE FORECAST AREA HAVING HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY MORNING`S
LOWS.

EVEN THOUGH COOLER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION THERE WILL
STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS
DURING THIS PERIOD.

ARS

&&

AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CALM WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO 8-14 KTS BY 17-19Z. SOME GUSTS WILL
OCCUR AT KJBR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH
SOME AFTER 00Z.

KRM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 280318 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
918 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
9PM SURFACE MAP SHOWED A 1033MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE ARKLAMISS...THROUGH WEST TN AND WESTERN KY. WINDS OVER THE
MIDSOUTH WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 20S NEAR THE TN
RIVER TO THE MID 30S AT THE MEMPHIS AIRPORT AND CLARKSDALE MS.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE SURFACE TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS TO THE
EAST... RESIDING OVER MIDDLE AND EAST TN BY SUNRISE. THIS WILL
RETURN WINDS TO THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS THE
TN RIVER VALLEY.

FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER THIS EVENING TO LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS
BY A CATEGORY OR TWO OR TWO. WINDS OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY WILL
BE SLOWEST TO TEMPS NEAR THE TN RIVER WILL LIKELY DIP TO NEAR 20
DEGREES OVERNIGHT. TEMPS OVER EASTERN AR WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY
AND MAY CLIMB A BIT IN RESPONSE TO BETTER MIXING AND ARRIVAL OF
HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SOME CLOUDS REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE COOL FOR
LATE NOVEMBER WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION AND KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE QUITE CHILLY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FRIDAY
MORNING IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE SURFACE HIGHS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL HELP BRING MILDER
AIR IN THE REGION WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN
THE 50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER AS WELL WITH SOUTH WINDS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE RATHER MILD WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION...SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE RATHER WARM
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE 50S.
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY WILL SEEM QUITE PLEASANT WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL START TO APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS WILL BE QUITE MILD MONDAY
MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST PLACES IN THE FORECAST AREA HAVING HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY MORNING`S
LOWS.

EVEN THOUGH COOLER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION THERE WILL
STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS
DURING THIS PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH EAST OF KMKL BY 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. CALM WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FRIDAY MORNING AS SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 8-14 KTS BY 19Z. SOME GUSTS WILL OCCUR AT KJBR DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 280318 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
918 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
9PM SURFACE MAP SHOWED A 1033MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE ARKLAMISS...THROUGH WEST TN AND WESTERN KY. WINDS OVER THE
MIDSOUTH WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 20S NEAR THE TN
RIVER TO THE MID 30S AT THE MEMPHIS AIRPORT AND CLARKSDALE MS.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE SURFACE TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS TO THE
EAST... RESIDING OVER MIDDLE AND EAST TN BY SUNRISE. THIS WILL
RETURN WINDS TO THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS THE
TN RIVER VALLEY.

FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER THIS EVENING TO LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS
BY A CATEGORY OR TWO OR TWO. WINDS OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY WILL
BE SLOWEST TO TEMPS NEAR THE TN RIVER WILL LIKELY DIP TO NEAR 20
DEGREES OVERNIGHT. TEMPS OVER EASTERN AR WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY
AND MAY CLIMB A BIT IN RESPONSE TO BETTER MIXING AND ARRIVAL OF
HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SOME CLOUDS REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE COOL FOR
LATE NOVEMBER WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION AND KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE QUITE CHILLY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FRIDAY
MORNING IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE SURFACE HIGHS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL HELP BRING MILDER
AIR IN THE REGION WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN
THE 50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER AS WELL WITH SOUTH WINDS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE RATHER MILD WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION...SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE RATHER WARM
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE 50S.
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY WILL SEEM QUITE PLEASANT WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL START TO APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS WILL BE QUITE MILD MONDAY
MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST PLACES IN THE FORECAST AREA HAVING HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY MORNING`S
LOWS.

EVEN THOUGH COOLER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION THERE WILL
STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS
DURING THIS PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH EAST OF KMKL BY 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. CALM WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FRIDAY MORNING AS SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 8-14 KTS BY 19Z. SOME GUSTS WILL OCCUR AT KJBR DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 280318 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
918 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
9PM SURFACE MAP SHOWED A 1033MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE ARKLAMISS...THROUGH WEST TN AND WESTERN KY. WINDS OVER THE
MIDSOUTH WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 20S NEAR THE TN
RIVER TO THE MID 30S AT THE MEMPHIS AIRPORT AND CLARKSDALE MS.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE SURFACE TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS TO THE
EAST... RESIDING OVER MIDDLE AND EAST TN BY SUNRISE. THIS WILL
RETURN WINDS TO THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS THE
TN RIVER VALLEY.

FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER THIS EVENING TO LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS
BY A CATEGORY OR TWO OR TWO. WINDS OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY WILL
BE SLOWEST TO TEMPS NEAR THE TN RIVER WILL LIKELY DIP TO NEAR 20
DEGREES OVERNIGHT. TEMPS OVER EASTERN AR WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY
AND MAY CLIMB A BIT IN RESPONSE TO BETTER MIXING AND ARRIVAL OF
HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SOME CLOUDS REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE COOL FOR
LATE NOVEMBER WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION AND KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE QUITE CHILLY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FRIDAY
MORNING IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE SURFACE HIGHS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL HELP BRING MILDER
AIR IN THE REGION WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN
THE 50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER AS WELL WITH SOUTH WINDS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE RATHER MILD WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION...SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE RATHER WARM
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE 50S.
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY WILL SEEM QUITE PLEASANT WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL START TO APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS WILL BE QUITE MILD MONDAY
MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST PLACES IN THE FORECAST AREA HAVING HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY MORNING`S
LOWS.

EVEN THOUGH COOLER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION THERE WILL
STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS
DURING THIS PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH EAST OF KMKL BY 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. CALM WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FRIDAY MORNING AS SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 8-14 KTS BY 19Z. SOME GUSTS WILL OCCUR AT KJBR DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 280318 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
918 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
9PM SURFACE MAP SHOWED A 1033MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE ARKLAMISS...THROUGH WEST TN AND WESTERN KY. WINDS OVER THE
MIDSOUTH WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 20S NEAR THE TN
RIVER TO THE MID 30S AT THE MEMPHIS AIRPORT AND CLARKSDALE MS.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE SURFACE TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS TO THE
EAST... RESIDING OVER MIDDLE AND EAST TN BY SUNRISE. THIS WILL
RETURN WINDS TO THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS THE
TN RIVER VALLEY.

FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER THIS EVENING TO LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS
BY A CATEGORY OR TWO OR TWO. WINDS OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY WILL
BE SLOWEST TO TEMPS NEAR THE TN RIVER WILL LIKELY DIP TO NEAR 20
DEGREES OVERNIGHT. TEMPS OVER EASTERN AR WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY
AND MAY CLIMB A BIT IN RESPONSE TO BETTER MIXING AND ARRIVAL OF
HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SOME CLOUDS REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE COOL FOR
LATE NOVEMBER WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION AND KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE QUITE CHILLY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FRIDAY
MORNING IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE SURFACE HIGHS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL HELP BRING MILDER
AIR IN THE REGION WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN
THE 50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER AS WELL WITH SOUTH WINDS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE RATHER MILD WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION...SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE RATHER WARM
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE 50S.
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY WILL SEEM QUITE PLEASANT WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL START TO APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS WILL BE QUITE MILD MONDAY
MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST PLACES IN THE FORECAST AREA HAVING HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY MORNING`S
LOWS.

EVEN THOUGH COOLER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION THERE WILL
STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS
DURING THIS PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH EAST OF KMKL BY 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. CALM WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FRIDAY MORNING AS SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 8-14 KTS BY 19Z. SOME GUSTS WILL OCCUR AT KJBR DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 280227
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
927 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...STILL A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS
WELL AS SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES...BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST A BIT LONGER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO WILL ADJUST SKY COVER. WILL ALSO TWEAK TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS.  UPDATE OUT SOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             25  47  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  24  43  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       24  44  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              22  39  27  51 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 280227
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
927 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...STILL A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS
WELL AS SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES...BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST A BIT LONGER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO WILL ADJUST SKY COVER. WILL ALSO TWEAK TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS.  UPDATE OUT SOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             25  47  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  24  43  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       24  44  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              22  39  27  51 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 280227
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
927 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...STILL A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS
WELL AS SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES...BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST A BIT LONGER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO WILL ADJUST SKY COVER. WILL ALSO TWEAK TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS.  UPDATE OUT SOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             25  47  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  24  43  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       24  44  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              22  39  27  51 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 280227
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
927 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...STILL A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS
WELL AS SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES...BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST A BIT LONGER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO WILL ADJUST SKY COVER. WILL ALSO TWEAK TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS.  UPDATE OUT SOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             25  47  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  24  43  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       24  44  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              22  39  27  51 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOHX 280001 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
601 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL ERODE 28/02Z E - 28/05Z W AS A DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS TO WORK
INTO MID STATE. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA
28/10Z-28/17Z RESULTING IN VFR ALTOSTRATUS CEILINGS. DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES WILL RESULT 28/17Z-28/24Z IN VFR/SKC
CONDITIONS THRU 28/24Z WITH SFC WINDS SHIFTING FROM NW-N 5KTS OR LESS TO S
AROUND 5KT...EXPECT FOR CSV WHERE INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INFLUENCES
WILL RESULT IN GUSTS AROUND 18KTS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 135 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO COVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. CLEARING LINE
IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD, AND IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BULK OF THE
MID STATE WILL SCATTER OUT BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT TO OUR EAST TOMORROW AND BRING ABOUT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WARMING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH READINGS HITTING THE 60`S MOST AREAS ON
SUNDAY. THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, AND WILL KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED POP`S IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID-WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN
ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK, SO LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
STABILIZE AROUND NORMAL VALUES FROM MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 272337
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
537 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE SFC RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN IL
SOUTHWARD INTO MS. A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IS STILL IN PLACE BUT THE
CLEARING LINE IS NOT ALL THAT FAR TO THE WEST. BY MORNING...SFC
RIDGE WILL BE IN VERY CLOSE PROXIMITY AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR. SO...STILL EXPECTING COLD TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY FAIRLY CLOSE TO EXPECTED LOW TEMPS.
AND...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIE OFF...A FROSTY START TO THIS
YEARS BLACK FRIDAY LOOKS LIKELY.

FOR THE UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO REISSUE ZONES SO AS TO
REMOVE THE LATE AFTERNOON WORDING. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 135 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO COVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. CLEARING LINE
IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD, AND IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BULK OF THE
MID STATE WILL SCATTER OUT BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT TO OUR EAST TOMORROW AND BRING ABOUT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WARMING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH READINGS HITTING THE 60`S MOST AREAS ON
SUNDAY. THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, AND WILL KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED POP`S IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID-WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN
ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK, SO LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
STABILIZE AROUND NORMAL VALUES FROM MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KOHX 272337
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
537 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE SFC RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN IL
SOUTHWARD INTO MS. A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IS STILL IN PLACE BUT THE
CLEARING LINE IS NOT ALL THAT FAR TO THE WEST. BY MORNING...SFC
RIDGE WILL BE IN VERY CLOSE PROXIMITY AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR. SO...STILL EXPECTING COLD TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY FAIRLY CLOSE TO EXPECTED LOW TEMPS.
AND...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIE OFF...A FROSTY START TO THIS
YEARS BLACK FRIDAY LOOKS LIKELY.

FOR THE UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO REISSUE ZONES SO AS TO
REMOVE THE LATE AFTERNOON WORDING. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 135 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO COVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. CLEARING LINE
IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD, AND IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BULK OF THE
MID STATE WILL SCATTER OUT BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT TO OUR EAST TOMORROW AND BRING ABOUT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WARMING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH READINGS HITTING THE 60`S MOST AREAS ON
SUNDAY. THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, AND WILL KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED POP`S IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID-WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN
ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK, SO LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
STABILIZE AROUND NORMAL VALUES FROM MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KMRX 272333
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
633 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT TRI AND AT TIMES AT TYS
THROUGH 14-16Z FRIDAY. AT CHA...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH
CLOUDS DISSIPATING BETWEEN 03-04Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
MOST OF FRIDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN SURFACE AND ALOFT.  DUE TO
SURFACE RIDGING...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 272333
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
633 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT TRI AND AT TIMES AT TYS
THROUGH 14-16Z FRIDAY. AT CHA...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH
CLOUDS DISSIPATING BETWEEN 03-04Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
MOST OF FRIDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN SURFACE AND ALOFT.  DUE TO
SURFACE RIDGING...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 272305
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
505 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SOME CLOUDS REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE COOL FOR
LATE NOVEMBER WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION AND KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE QUITE CHILLY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FRIDAY
MORNING IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE SURFACE HIGHS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL HELP BRING MILDER
AIR IN THE REGION WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN
THE 50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER AS WELL WITH SOUTH WINDS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE RATHER MILD WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION...SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE RATHER WARM
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE 50S.
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY WILL SEEM QUITE PLEASANT WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL START TO APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS WILL BE QUITE MILD MONDAY
MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST PLACES IN THE FORECAST AREA HAVING HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY MORNING`S
LOWS.

EVEN THOUGH COOLER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION THERE WILL
STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS
DURING THIS PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH EAST OF KMKL BY 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. CALM WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FRIDAY MORNING AS SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 8-14 KTS BY 19Z. SOME GUSTS WILL OCCUR AT KJBR DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

KRM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 272305
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
505 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SOME CLOUDS REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE COOL FOR
LATE NOVEMBER WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION AND KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE QUITE CHILLY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FRIDAY
MORNING IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE SURFACE HIGHS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL HELP BRING MILDER
AIR IN THE REGION WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN
THE 50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER AS WELL WITH SOUTH WINDS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE RATHER MILD WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION...SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE RATHER WARM
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE 50S.
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY WILL SEEM QUITE PLEASANT WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL START TO APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS WILL BE QUITE MILD MONDAY
MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST PLACES IN THE FORECAST AREA HAVING HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY MORNING`S
LOWS.

EVEN THOUGH COOLER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION THERE WILL
STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS
DURING THIS PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH EAST OF KMKL BY 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. CALM WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FRIDAY MORNING AS SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 8-14 KTS BY 19Z. SOME GUSTS WILL OCCUR AT KJBR DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

KRM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 272059
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
259 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014


.DISCUSSION...

SOME CLOUDS REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE COOL FOR
LATE NOVEMBER WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION AND KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE QUITE CHILLY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FRIDAY
MORNING IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE SURFACE HIGHS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL HELP BRING MILDER
AIR IN THE REGION WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN
THE 50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER AS WELL WITH SOUTH WINDS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE RATHER MILD WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION...SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE RATHER WARM
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE 50S.
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY WILL SEEM QUITE PLEASANT WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL START TO APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS WILL BE QUITE MILD MONDAY
MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST PLACES IN THE FORECAST AREA HAVING HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY MORNING`S
LOWS.

EVEN THOUGH COOLER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION THERE WILL
STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS
DURING THIS PERIOD.

ARS



&&

.AVIATION...

CLOUDS TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
EXPECT MKL AND TUP TO GO ONLY TO BKN. WINDS TO GO DOWN A LITTLE AS
THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON AND REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHERLY.

TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO GO NEAR CALM AS RIDGE PASSES OVER. LOW
CLOUDS TO WANE AND A MID DECK TO SCOOT ACROSS AFTER 05Z TO 120Z.

FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TMR MORNING
AS MID DECK THINS.

WER

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 272059
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
259 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014


.DISCUSSION...

SOME CLOUDS REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE COOL FOR
LATE NOVEMBER WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION AND KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE QUITE CHILLY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FRIDAY
MORNING IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE SURFACE HIGHS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL HELP BRING MILDER
AIR IN THE REGION WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN
THE 50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER AS WELL WITH SOUTH WINDS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE RATHER MILD WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION...SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE RATHER WARM
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE 50S.
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY WILL SEEM QUITE PLEASANT WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL START TO APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS WILL BE QUITE MILD MONDAY
MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST PLACES IN THE FORECAST AREA HAVING HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY MORNING`S
LOWS.

EVEN THOUGH COOLER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION THERE WILL
STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS
DURING THIS PERIOD.

ARS



&&

.AVIATION...

CLOUDS TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
EXPECT MKL AND TUP TO GO ONLY TO BKN. WINDS TO GO DOWN A LITTLE AS
THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON AND REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHERLY.

TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO GO NEAR CALM AS RIDGE PASSES OVER. LOW
CLOUDS TO WANE AND A MID DECK TO SCOOT ACROSS AFTER 05Z TO 120Z.

FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TMR MORNING
AS MID DECK THINS.

WER

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 272013
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
311 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN TO THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE A
COUPLE OF FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...BUT ANY KIND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY
MINIMAL THIS EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS REALLY HANGING IN
OVER THE AREA. SHOULD SEE SLOW DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS LIFTING AROUND MORNING. WITH THE CLOUD COVER
TODAY...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW...WILL SEE LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE PRESENT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WILL BE IN A DRY AND BENIGN
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK RIDGING TO ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT.  WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE APPROACH OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT.  MODELS SHOW A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  WILL BE BETWEEN
SYSTEM THURSDAY FOR A DRY PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             25  47  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  23  43  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       24  44  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              20  39  27  51 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW/MJB



000
FXUS64 KMRX 272013
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
311 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN TO THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE A
COUPLE OF FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...BUT ANY KIND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY
MINIMAL THIS EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS REALLY HANGING IN
OVER THE AREA. SHOULD SEE SLOW DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS LIFTING AROUND MORNING. WITH THE CLOUD COVER
TODAY...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW...WILL SEE LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE PRESENT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WILL BE IN A DRY AND BENIGN
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK RIDGING TO ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT.  WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE APPROACH OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT.  MODELS SHOW A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  WILL BE BETWEEN
SYSTEM THURSDAY FOR A DRY PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             25  47  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  23  43  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       24  44  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              20  39  27  51 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW/MJB



000
FXUS64 KMRX 272013
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
311 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN TO THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE A
COUPLE OF FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...BUT ANY KIND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY
MINIMAL THIS EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS REALLY HANGING IN
OVER THE AREA. SHOULD SEE SLOW DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS LIFTING AROUND MORNING. WITH THE CLOUD COVER
TODAY...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW...WILL SEE LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE PRESENT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WILL BE IN A DRY AND BENIGN
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK RIDGING TO ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT.  WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE APPROACH OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT.  MODELS SHOW A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  WILL BE BETWEEN
SYSTEM THURSDAY FOR A DRY PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             25  47  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  23  43  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       24  44  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              20  39  27  51 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW/MJB



000
FXUS64 KMRX 272013
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
311 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN TO THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE A
COUPLE OF FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...BUT ANY KIND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY
MINIMAL THIS EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS REALLY HANGING IN
OVER THE AREA. SHOULD SEE SLOW DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS LIFTING AROUND MORNING. WITH THE CLOUD COVER
TODAY...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW...WILL SEE LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE PRESENT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WILL BE IN A DRY AND BENIGN
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK RIDGING TO ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT.  WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE APPROACH OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT.  MODELS SHOW A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  WILL BE BETWEEN
SYSTEM THURSDAY FOR A DRY PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             25  47  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  23  43  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       24  44  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              20  39  27  51 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW/MJB



000
FXUS64 KOHX 271935
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
135 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO COVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. CLEARING LINE
IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD, AND IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BULK OF THE
MID STATE WILL SCATTER OUT BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT TO OUR EAST TOMORROW AND BRING ABOUT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WARMING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH READINGS HITTING THE 60`S MOST AREAS ON
SUNDAY. THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, AND WILL KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED POP`S IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID-WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN
ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK, SO LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
STABILIZE AROUND NORMAL VALUES FROM MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      23  48  36  57 /   0  05   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    21  48  37  58 /  05   0  05  05
CROSSVILLE     18  42  30  51 /   0  05   0   0
COLUMBIA       24  50  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   23  51  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        23  50  38  59 /  05   0   0  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




000
FXUS64 KOHX 271935
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
135 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO COVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. CLEARING LINE
IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD, AND IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BULK OF THE
MID STATE WILL SCATTER OUT BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT TO OUR EAST TOMORROW AND BRING ABOUT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WARMING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH READINGS HITTING THE 60`S MOST AREAS ON
SUNDAY. THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, AND WILL KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED POP`S IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID-WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN
ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK, SO LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
STABILIZE AROUND NORMAL VALUES FROM MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      23  48  36  57 /   0  05   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    21  48  37  58 /  05   0  05  05
CROSSVILLE     18  42  30  51 /   0  05   0   0
COLUMBIA       24  50  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   23  51  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        23  50  38  59 /  05   0   0  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KMRX 271801
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
101 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
KCHA WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE LEFT KTRI AND
KTYS WITH MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN LIFTING TO VFR THROUGH
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW




000
FXUS64 KMEG 271751
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1151 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S.
CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND SKIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLEAR UP BY THIS EVENING
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. MADE SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN CONUS
WITH STRONG COASTAL WAVE BEGINNING TO EXIT NEW ENGLAND. ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH...SECONDARY SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW IS
PUSHING EAST AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. FOR THIS REASON...DID
INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT FLURRIES THIS MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE MID
SOUTH. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING WHICH IS
REPRESENTED IN NEARLY ALL HI-RES GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE.
THROUGH THE DAY...LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD ERODE AND GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE COLD AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO OFFSET MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING SO HIGHS NEAR 40 ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
TO MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ARE LIKELY.

A GRADUAL IS WARMUP IS SHOWN IN MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINNING FRIDAY
AS MERIDIONAL FLOW GIVES WAY TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE LOW TEENS BY
SUNDAY...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FORECAST.

MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING FAIRLY RAPID
MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH IS A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THE GFS
ACTUALLY DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO BEGINNING FRIDAY BUT DID NOT
INTRODUCE THIS INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND VERY WEAK/SLOW LOW LEVEL
VERTICAL MOTIONS...EXPECT DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
STREAMS NORTH. WHETHER THIS WILL BE MEASURABLE IS YET TO BE
DETERMINED BUT ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL EXISTS TO INTRODUCE INTO THE
FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS FORCING GRADUALLY INCREASES.

A MORE SYNOPTIC SIGNAL EXISTS EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AS A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IMPINGES ON A MOISTENING
AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
50S...LAPSE RATES ARE SO WEAK THAT INSTABILITY...EVEN ELEVATED...REMAINS
NEGLIGIBLE. HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED UP AND OVER THE FRONTAL
ZONE. GIVEN FLOW NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY...IT WILL
LIKELY MEANDER THROUGH THE AREA VERY SLOWLY SO AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF PRECIP APPEARS POSSIBLE.

FOR THE LONGER TERM...LATER IN THE WEEK...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
FRONT WASHES OUT AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT RELAXES AND FRONTAL
CIRCULATION SLOWS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY END AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
WARMING BEGINS LATE IN THE WEEK.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON, BUT EXPECT MKL
AND TUP TO GO ONLY TO BKN. WINDS TO GO DOWN A LITTLE AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON AND REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHERLY.

TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO GO NEAR CALM AS RIDGE PASSES OVER. LOW
CLOUDS TO WANE AND A MID DECK TO SCOOT ACROSS AFTER 05Z TO 120Z.

FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TMR MORNING
AS MID DECK THINS.

WER

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 271751
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1151 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S.
CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND SKIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLEAR UP BY THIS EVENING
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. MADE SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN CONUS
WITH STRONG COASTAL WAVE BEGINNING TO EXIT NEW ENGLAND. ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH...SECONDARY SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW IS
PUSHING EAST AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. FOR THIS REASON...DID
INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT FLURRIES THIS MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE MID
SOUTH. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING WHICH IS
REPRESENTED IN NEARLY ALL HI-RES GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE.
THROUGH THE DAY...LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD ERODE AND GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE COLD AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO OFFSET MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING SO HIGHS NEAR 40 ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
TO MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ARE LIKELY.

A GRADUAL IS WARMUP IS SHOWN IN MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINNING FRIDAY
AS MERIDIONAL FLOW GIVES WAY TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE LOW TEENS BY
SUNDAY...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FORECAST.

MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING FAIRLY RAPID
MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH IS A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THE GFS
ACTUALLY DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO BEGINNING FRIDAY BUT DID NOT
INTRODUCE THIS INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND VERY WEAK/SLOW LOW LEVEL
VERTICAL MOTIONS...EXPECT DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
STREAMS NORTH. WHETHER THIS WILL BE MEASURABLE IS YET TO BE
DETERMINED BUT ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL EXISTS TO INTRODUCE INTO THE
FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS FORCING GRADUALLY INCREASES.

A MORE SYNOPTIC SIGNAL EXISTS EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AS A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IMPINGES ON A MOISTENING
AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
50S...LAPSE RATES ARE SO WEAK THAT INSTABILITY...EVEN ELEVATED...REMAINS
NEGLIGIBLE. HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED UP AND OVER THE FRONTAL
ZONE. GIVEN FLOW NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY...IT WILL
LIKELY MEANDER THROUGH THE AREA VERY SLOWLY SO AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF PRECIP APPEARS POSSIBLE.

FOR THE LONGER TERM...LATER IN THE WEEK...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
FRONT WASHES OUT AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT RELAXES AND FRONTAL
CIRCULATION SLOWS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY END AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
WARMING BEGINS LATE IN THE WEEK.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON, BUT EXPECT MKL
AND TUP TO GO ONLY TO BKN. WINDS TO GO DOWN A LITTLE AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON AND REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHERLY.

TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO GO NEAR CALM AS RIDGE PASSES OVER. LOW
CLOUDS TO WANE AND A MID DECK TO SCOOT ACROSS AFTER 05Z TO 120Z.

FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TMR MORNING
AS MID DECK THINS.

WER

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 271745
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1145 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAFS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE CANADIAN CLIPPER, FLYING CONDITIONS ACROSS
MIDDLE TN WILL BE ON THE BRINK OF MVFR AND VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CIGS THAT COULD TEETER A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET ON EITHER SIDE OF 030
KFT. THE OTHER ISSUE IS HOW LONG THE MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDER THE INVERSION BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BEFORE SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN
LATER TONIGHT. NE WINDS SHOULD CALM THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TOMORROW MORNING.

REAGAN

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

10





000
FXUS64 KOHX 271745
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1145 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAFS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE CANADIAN CLIPPER, FLYING CONDITIONS ACROSS
MIDDLE TN WILL BE ON THE BRINK OF MVFR AND VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CIGS THAT COULD TEETER A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET ON EITHER SIDE OF 030
KFT. THE OTHER ISSUE IS HOW LONG THE MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDER THE INVERSION BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BEFORE SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN
LATER TONIGHT. NE WINDS SHOULD CALM THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TOMORROW MORNING.

REAGAN

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

10






000
FXUS64 KMEG 271609
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1009 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S.
CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND SKIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLEAR UP BY THIS EVENING
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. MADE SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN CONUS
WITH STRONG COASTAL WAVE BEGINNING TO EXIT NEW ENGLAND. ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH...SECONDARY SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW IS
PUSHING EAST AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. FOR THIS REASON...DID
INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT FLURRIES THIS MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE MID
SOUTH. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING WHICH IS
REPRESENTED IN NEARLY ALL HI-RES GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE.
THROUGH THE DAY...LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD ERODE AND GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE COLD AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO OFFSET MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING SO HIGHS NEAR 40 ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
TO MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ARE LIKELY.

A GRADUAL IS WARMUP IS SHOWN IN MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINNING FRIDAY
AS MERIDIONAL FLOW GIVES WAY TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE LOW TEENS BY
SUNDAY...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FORECAST.

MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING FAIRLY RAPID
MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH IS A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THE GFS
ACTUALLY DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO BEGINNING FRIDAY BUT DID NOT
INTRODUCE THIS INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND VERY WEAK/SLOW LOW LEVEL
VERTICAL MOTIONS...EXPECT DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
STREAMS NORTH. WHETHER THIS WILL BE MEASURABLE IS YET TO BE
DETERMINED BUT ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL EXISTS TO INTRODUCE INTO THE
FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS FORCING GRADUALLY INCREASES.

A MORE SYNOPTIC SIGNAL EXISTS EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AS A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IMPINGES ON A MOISTENING
AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
50S...LAPSE RATES ARE SO WEAK THAT INSTABILITY...EVEN ELEVATED...REMAINS
NEGLIGIBLE. HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED UP AND OVER THE FRONTAL
ZONE. GIVEN FLOW NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY...IT WILL
LIKELY MEANDER THROUGH THE AREA VERY SLOWLY SO AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF PRECIP APPEARS POSSIBLE.

FOR THE LONGER TERM...LATER IN THE WEEK...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
FRONT WASHES OUT AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT RELAXES AND FRONTAL
CIRCULATION SLOWS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY END AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
WARMING BEGINS LATE IN THE WEEK.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE
GRADUALLY LIFTING BACK TO VFR BY LATE THIS MORNING AT KJBR AND
INTO THIS AFTERNOON POINTS EAST. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. LATER
TONIGHT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD REDEVELOP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
ELEVATED WARM FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 271609
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1009 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S.
CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND SKIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLEAR UP BY THIS EVENING
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. MADE SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN CONUS
WITH STRONG COASTAL WAVE BEGINNING TO EXIT NEW ENGLAND. ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH...SECONDARY SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW IS
PUSHING EAST AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. FOR THIS REASON...DID
INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT FLURRIES THIS MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE MID
SOUTH. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING WHICH IS
REPRESENTED IN NEARLY ALL HI-RES GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE.
THROUGH THE DAY...LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD ERODE AND GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE COLD AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO OFFSET MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING SO HIGHS NEAR 40 ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
TO MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ARE LIKELY.

A GRADUAL IS WARMUP IS SHOWN IN MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINNING FRIDAY
AS MERIDIONAL FLOW GIVES WAY TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE LOW TEENS BY
SUNDAY...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FORECAST.

MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING FAIRLY RAPID
MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH IS A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THE GFS
ACTUALLY DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO BEGINNING FRIDAY BUT DID NOT
INTRODUCE THIS INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND VERY WEAK/SLOW LOW LEVEL
VERTICAL MOTIONS...EXPECT DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
STREAMS NORTH. WHETHER THIS WILL BE MEASURABLE IS YET TO BE
DETERMINED BUT ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL EXISTS TO INTRODUCE INTO THE
FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS FORCING GRADUALLY INCREASES.

A MORE SYNOPTIC SIGNAL EXISTS EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AS A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IMPINGES ON A MOISTENING
AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
50S...LAPSE RATES ARE SO WEAK THAT INSTABILITY...EVEN ELEVATED...REMAINS
NEGLIGIBLE. HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED UP AND OVER THE FRONTAL
ZONE. GIVEN FLOW NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY...IT WILL
LIKELY MEANDER THROUGH THE AREA VERY SLOWLY SO AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF PRECIP APPEARS POSSIBLE.

FOR THE LONGER TERM...LATER IN THE WEEK...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
FRONT WASHES OUT AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT RELAXES AND FRONTAL
CIRCULATION SLOWS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY END AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
WARMING BEGINS LATE IN THE WEEK.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE
GRADUALLY LIFTING BACK TO VFR BY LATE THIS MORNING AT KJBR AND
INTO THIS AFTERNOON POINTS EAST. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. LATER
TONIGHT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD REDEVELOP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
ELEVATED WARM FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 271454
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
954 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH NOON...BUT
REMOVED THE NORTHERN PLATEAU COUNTIES AS LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS HAVE
ENDED DUE TO DRY AIR MOVING IN TO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             45  25  47  34 /  10   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  43  23  43  30 /  30   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       42  24  44  31 /  20   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              39  20  39  26 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK-JOHNSON-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
     WASHINGTON TN.

VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

JW



000
FXUS64 KMEG 271227
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
627 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN CONUS
WITH STRONG COASTAL WAVE BEGINNING TO EXIT NEW ENGLAND. ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH...SECONDARY SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW IS
PUSHING EAST AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. FOR THIS REASON...DID
INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT FLURRIES THIS MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE MID
SOUTH. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING WHICH IS
REPRESENTED IN NEARLY ALL HI-RES GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESEE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE.
THROUGH THE DAY...LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD ERODE AND GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE COLD AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO OFFSET MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING SO HIGHS NEAR 40 ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
TO MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ARE LIKELY.

A GRADUAL IS WARMUP IS SHOWN IN MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINNING FRIDAY
AS MERIDIONAL FLOW GIVES WAY TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE LOW TEENS BY
SUNDAY...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FORECAST.

MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING FAIRLY RAPID
MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH IS A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THE GFS
ACTUALLY DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO BEGINNING FRIDAY BUT DID NOT
INTRODUCE THIS INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND VERY WEAK/SLOW LOW LEVEL
VERTICAL MOTIONS...EXPECT DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
STREAMS NORTH. WHETHER THIS WILL BE MEASURABLE IS YET TO BE
DETERMINED BUT ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL EXISTS TO INTRODUCE INTO THE
FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING MORE WIDSPREAD BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS FORCING GRADUALLY INCREASES.

A MORE SYNOPTIC SIGNAL EXISTS EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AS A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IMPINGES ON A MOISTENING
AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
50S...LAPSE RATES ARE SO WEAK THAT INSTABILITY...EVEN ELEVATED...REMAINS
NEGLIGIBLE. HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED UP AND OVER THE FRONTAL
ZONE. GIVEN FLOW NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY...IT WILL
LIKELY MEANDER THROUGH THE AREA VERY SLOWLY SO AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF PRECIP APPEARS POSSIBLE.

FOR THE LONGER TERM...LATER IN THE WEEK...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
FRONT WASHES OUT AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT RELAXES AND FRONTAL
CIRCULATION SLOWS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY END AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
WARMING BEGINS LATE IN THE WEEK.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE
GRADUALLY LIFTING BACK TO VFR BY LATE THIS MORNING AT KJBR AND
INTO THIS AFTERNOON POINTS EAST. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. LATER
TONIGHT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD REDEVELOP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
ELEVATED WARM FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 271227
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
627 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN CONUS
WITH STRONG COASTAL WAVE BEGINNING TO EXIT NEW ENGLAND. ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH...SECONDARY SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW IS
PUSHING EAST AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. FOR THIS REASON...DID
INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT FLURRIES THIS MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE MID
SOUTH. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING WHICH IS
REPRESENTED IN NEARLY ALL HI-RES GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESEE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE.
THROUGH THE DAY...LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD ERODE AND GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE COLD AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO OFFSET MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING SO HIGHS NEAR 40 ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
TO MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ARE LIKELY.

A GRADUAL IS WARMUP IS SHOWN IN MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINNING FRIDAY
AS MERIDIONAL FLOW GIVES WAY TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE LOW TEENS BY
SUNDAY...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FORECAST.

MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING FAIRLY RAPID
MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH IS A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THE GFS
ACTUALLY DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO BEGINNING FRIDAY BUT DID NOT
INTRODUCE THIS INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND VERY WEAK/SLOW LOW LEVEL
VERTICAL MOTIONS...EXPECT DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
STREAMS NORTH. WHETHER THIS WILL BE MEASURABLE IS YET TO BE
DETERMINED BUT ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL EXISTS TO INTRODUCE INTO THE
FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING MORE WIDSPREAD BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS FORCING GRADUALLY INCREASES.

A MORE SYNOPTIC SIGNAL EXISTS EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AS A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IMPINGES ON A MOISTENING
AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
50S...LAPSE RATES ARE SO WEAK THAT INSTABILITY...EVEN ELEVATED...REMAINS
NEGLIGIBLE. HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED UP AND OVER THE FRONTAL
ZONE. GIVEN FLOW NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY...IT WILL
LIKELY MEANDER THROUGH THE AREA VERY SLOWLY SO AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF PRECIP APPEARS POSSIBLE.

FOR THE LONGER TERM...LATER IN THE WEEK...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
FRONT WASHES OUT AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT RELAXES AND FRONTAL
CIRCULATION SLOWS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY END AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
WARMING BEGINS LATE IN THE WEEK.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE
GRADUALLY LIFTING BACK TO VFR BY LATE THIS MORNING AT KJBR AND
INTO THIS AFTERNOON POINTS EAST. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. LATER
TONIGHT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD REDEVELOP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
ELEVATED WARM FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 271227
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
627 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN CONUS
WITH STRONG COASTAL WAVE BEGINNING TO EXIT NEW ENGLAND. ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH...SECONDARY SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW IS
PUSHING EAST AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. FOR THIS REASON...DID
INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT FLURRIES THIS MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE MID
SOUTH. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING WHICH IS
REPRESENTED IN NEARLY ALL HI-RES GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESEE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE.
THROUGH THE DAY...LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD ERODE AND GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE COLD AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO OFFSET MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING SO HIGHS NEAR 40 ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
TO MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ARE LIKELY.

A GRADUAL IS WARMUP IS SHOWN IN MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINNING FRIDAY
AS MERIDIONAL FLOW GIVES WAY TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE LOW TEENS BY
SUNDAY...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FORECAST.

MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING FAIRLY RAPID
MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH IS A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THE GFS
ACTUALLY DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO BEGINNING FRIDAY BUT DID NOT
INTRODUCE THIS INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND VERY WEAK/SLOW LOW LEVEL
VERTICAL MOTIONS...EXPECT DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
STREAMS NORTH. WHETHER THIS WILL BE MEASURABLE IS YET TO BE
DETERMINED BUT ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL EXISTS TO INTRODUCE INTO THE
FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING MORE WIDSPREAD BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS FORCING GRADUALLY INCREASES.

A MORE SYNOPTIC SIGNAL EXISTS EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AS A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IMPINGES ON A MOISTENING
AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
50S...LAPSE RATES ARE SO WEAK THAT INSTABILITY...EVEN ELEVATED...REMAINS
NEGLIGIBLE. HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED UP AND OVER THE FRONTAL
ZONE. GIVEN FLOW NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY...IT WILL
LIKELY MEANDER THROUGH THE AREA VERY SLOWLY SO AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF PRECIP APPEARS POSSIBLE.

FOR THE LONGER TERM...LATER IN THE WEEK...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
FRONT WASHES OUT AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT RELAXES AND FRONTAL
CIRCULATION SLOWS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY END AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
WARMING BEGINS LATE IN THE WEEK.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE
GRADUALLY LIFTING BACK TO VFR BY LATE THIS MORNING AT KJBR AND
INTO THIS AFTERNOON POINTS EAST. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. LATER
TONIGHT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD REDEVELOP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
ELEVATED WARM FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 271227
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
627 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN CONUS
WITH STRONG COASTAL WAVE BEGINNING TO EXIT NEW ENGLAND. ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH...SECONDARY SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW IS
PUSHING EAST AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. FOR THIS REASON...DID
INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT FLURRIES THIS MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE MID
SOUTH. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING WHICH IS
REPRESENTED IN NEARLY ALL HI-RES GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESEE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE.
THROUGH THE DAY...LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD ERODE AND GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE COLD AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO OFFSET MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING SO HIGHS NEAR 40 ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
TO MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ARE LIKELY.

A GRADUAL IS WARMUP IS SHOWN IN MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINNING FRIDAY
AS MERIDIONAL FLOW GIVES WAY TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE LOW TEENS BY
SUNDAY...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FORECAST.

MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING FAIRLY RAPID
MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH IS A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THE GFS
ACTUALLY DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO BEGINNING FRIDAY BUT DID NOT
INTRODUCE THIS INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND VERY WEAK/SLOW LOW LEVEL
VERTICAL MOTIONS...EXPECT DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
STREAMS NORTH. WHETHER THIS WILL BE MEASURABLE IS YET TO BE
DETERMINED BUT ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL EXISTS TO INTRODUCE INTO THE
FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING MORE WIDSPREAD BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS FORCING GRADUALLY INCREASES.

A MORE SYNOPTIC SIGNAL EXISTS EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AS A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IMPINGES ON A MOISTENING
AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
50S...LAPSE RATES ARE SO WEAK THAT INSTABILITY...EVEN ELEVATED...REMAINS
NEGLIGIBLE. HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED UP AND OVER THE FRONTAL
ZONE. GIVEN FLOW NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY...IT WILL
LIKELY MEANDER THROUGH THE AREA VERY SLOWLY SO AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF PRECIP APPEARS POSSIBLE.

FOR THE LONGER TERM...LATER IN THE WEEK...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
FRONT WASHES OUT AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT RELAXES AND FRONTAL
CIRCULATION SLOWS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY END AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
WARMING BEGINS LATE IN THE WEEK.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE
GRADUALLY LIFTING BACK TO VFR BY LATE THIS MORNING AT KJBR AND
INTO THIS AFTERNOON POINTS EAST. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. LATER
TONIGHT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD REDEVELOP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
ELEVATED WARM FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 271204
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
604 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT ACROSS ALL OF MIDDLE TN THIS
MORNING AS A CANADIAN CLIPPER SLIPS THROUGH THE REGION. SOME -SN
IS FINALLY BEING REPORTED AT KCSV...WHICH IS REDUCING VIS THERE.
THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.

CIGS WILL STAY IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR. BREEZY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS
WELL...BUT BEGIN TO RELAX AS WE NEAR SUNSET THIS EVENING.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SNOW HAS HELD OFF MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE SURFACE
LOW SKIRTING ACROSS THE TN AND KY BORDER LAST EVENING AND
CURRENTLY IN EASTERN TN. BACKSIDE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE LOW HAS
BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO KY AND CURRENTLY THOSE BANDS OF
SNOW ARE JUST ENTERING NORTH CENTRAL TN. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LESS
THAN AN INCH ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SHORT TERM MODELS KEEP THE
BACKSIDE FORCING AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO HAVE QPF THROUGH 18Z
TODAY...SO FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEAST AND PLATEAU THIS MORNING. COLD
TEMPERATURES CAN STILL BE EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD
COVER LINGERS AROUND LONGER DURING THE DAY. HIGHS FOR THE MOST
PART ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MIDDLE TN. THE SUN MAY
POP OUT IF CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES EARLIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS AROUND -8C TO -10C SHOULD ACT TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO MUCH HIGHER THAN FORECASTED.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE
IN ALONG WITH SOME LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THIS SHOULD ACT TO
DECREASE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY TODAY AND PAVE THE WAY FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY 00Z SAT...SO A NICE REBOUND
OF TEMPERATURES WILL HAPPEN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLY LATE SATURDAY WITH
WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE UPPER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GENERATING
WEAK QPF OUTPUT ATTM. BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A POTENT COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN THE CONUS. THANKFULLY
THIS COLD AIRMASS GETS MODIFIED AS IT SLIDES DOWN THE MIDWEST SO
MIDDLE TN SHOULD NOT SEE A DRAMATIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE. AFTER THIS
POINT MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS SEPARATING A BIT...BUT PRECIP CHANCES
ON AND OFF THROUGH NEXT WEEK ARE HOLDING IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
TNZ009>011-031>034-065-066-080.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KOHX 271204
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
604 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT ACROSS ALL OF MIDDLE TN THIS
MORNING AS A CANADIAN CLIPPER SLIPS THROUGH THE REGION. SOME -SN
IS FINALLY BEING REPORTED AT KCSV...WHICH IS REDUCING VIS THERE.
THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.

CIGS WILL STAY IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR. BREEZY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS
WELL...BUT BEGIN TO RELAX AS WE NEAR SUNSET THIS EVENING.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SNOW HAS HELD OFF MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE SURFACE
LOW SKIRTING ACROSS THE TN AND KY BORDER LAST EVENING AND
CURRENTLY IN EASTERN TN. BACKSIDE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE LOW HAS
BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO KY AND CURRENTLY THOSE BANDS OF
SNOW ARE JUST ENTERING NORTH CENTRAL TN. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LESS
THAN AN INCH ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SHORT TERM MODELS KEEP THE
BACKSIDE FORCING AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO HAVE QPF THROUGH 18Z
TODAY...SO FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEAST AND PLATEAU THIS MORNING. COLD
TEMPERATURES CAN STILL BE EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD
COVER LINGERS AROUND LONGER DURING THE DAY. HIGHS FOR THE MOST
PART ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MIDDLE TN. THE SUN MAY
POP OUT IF CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES EARLIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS AROUND -8C TO -10C SHOULD ACT TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO MUCH HIGHER THAN FORECASTED.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE
IN ALONG WITH SOME LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THIS SHOULD ACT TO
DECREASE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY TODAY AND PAVE THE WAY FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY 00Z SAT...SO A NICE REBOUND
OF TEMPERATURES WILL HAPPEN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLY LATE SATURDAY WITH
WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE UPPER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GENERATING
WEAK QPF OUTPUT ATTM. BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A POTENT COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN THE CONUS. THANKFULLY
THIS COLD AIRMASS GETS MODIFIED AS IT SLIDES DOWN THE MIDWEST SO
MIDDLE TN SHOULD NOT SEE A DRAMATIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE. AFTER THIS
POINT MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS SEPARATING A BIT...BUT PRECIP CHANCES
ON AND OFF THROUGH NEXT WEEK ARE HOLDING IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
TNZ009>011-031>034-065-066-080.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KOHX 271204
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
604 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT ACROSS ALL OF MIDDLE TN THIS
MORNING AS A CANADIAN CLIPPER SLIPS THROUGH THE REGION. SOME -SN
IS FINALLY BEING REPORTED AT KCSV...WHICH IS REDUCING VIS THERE.
THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.

CIGS WILL STAY IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR. BREEZY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS
WELL...BUT BEGIN TO RELAX AS WE NEAR SUNSET THIS EVENING.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SNOW HAS HELD OFF MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE SURFACE
LOW SKIRTING ACROSS THE TN AND KY BORDER LAST EVENING AND
CURRENTLY IN EASTERN TN. BACKSIDE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE LOW HAS
BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO KY AND CURRENTLY THOSE BANDS OF
SNOW ARE JUST ENTERING NORTH CENTRAL TN. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LESS
THAN AN INCH ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SHORT TERM MODELS KEEP THE
BACKSIDE FORCING AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO HAVE QPF THROUGH 18Z
TODAY...SO FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEAST AND PLATEAU THIS MORNING. COLD
TEMPERATURES CAN STILL BE EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD
COVER LINGERS AROUND LONGER DURING THE DAY. HIGHS FOR THE MOST
PART ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MIDDLE TN. THE SUN MAY
POP OUT IF CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES EARLIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS AROUND -8C TO -10C SHOULD ACT TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO MUCH HIGHER THAN FORECASTED.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE
IN ALONG WITH SOME LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THIS SHOULD ACT TO
DECREASE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY TODAY AND PAVE THE WAY FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY 00Z SAT...SO A NICE REBOUND
OF TEMPERATURES WILL HAPPEN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLY LATE SATURDAY WITH
WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE UPPER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GENERATING
WEAK QPF OUTPUT ATTM. BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A POTENT COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN THE CONUS. THANKFULLY
THIS COLD AIRMASS GETS MODIFIED AS IT SLIDES DOWN THE MIDWEST SO
MIDDLE TN SHOULD NOT SEE A DRAMATIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE. AFTER THIS
POINT MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS SEPARATING A BIT...BUT PRECIP CHANCES
ON AND OFF THROUGH NEXT WEEK ARE HOLDING IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
TNZ009>011-031>034-065-066-080.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KOHX 271204
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
604 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT ACROSS ALL OF MIDDLE TN THIS
MORNING AS A CANADIAN CLIPPER SLIPS THROUGH THE REGION. SOME -SN
IS FINALLY BEING REPORTED AT KCSV...WHICH IS REDUCING VIS THERE.
THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.

CIGS WILL STAY IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR. BREEZY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS
WELL...BUT BEGIN TO RELAX AS WE NEAR SUNSET THIS EVENING.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SNOW HAS HELD OFF MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE SURFACE
LOW SKIRTING ACROSS THE TN AND KY BORDER LAST EVENING AND
CURRENTLY IN EASTERN TN. BACKSIDE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE LOW HAS
BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO KY AND CURRENTLY THOSE BANDS OF
SNOW ARE JUST ENTERING NORTH CENTRAL TN. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LESS
THAN AN INCH ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SHORT TERM MODELS KEEP THE
BACKSIDE FORCING AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO HAVE QPF THROUGH 18Z
TODAY...SO FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEAST AND PLATEAU THIS MORNING. COLD
TEMPERATURES CAN STILL BE EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD
COVER LINGERS AROUND LONGER DURING THE DAY. HIGHS FOR THE MOST
PART ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MIDDLE TN. THE SUN MAY
POP OUT IF CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES EARLIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS AROUND -8C TO -10C SHOULD ACT TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO MUCH HIGHER THAN FORECASTED.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE
IN ALONG WITH SOME LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THIS SHOULD ACT TO
DECREASE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY TODAY AND PAVE THE WAY FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY 00Z SAT...SO A NICE REBOUND
OF TEMPERATURES WILL HAPPEN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLY LATE SATURDAY WITH
WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE UPPER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GENERATING
WEAK QPF OUTPUT ATTM. BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A POTENT COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN THE CONUS. THANKFULLY
THIS COLD AIRMASS GETS MODIFIED AS IT SLIDES DOWN THE MIDWEST SO
MIDDLE TN SHOULD NOT SEE A DRAMATIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE. AFTER THIS
POINT MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS SEPARATING A BIT...BUT PRECIP CHANCES
ON AND OFF THROUGH NEXT WEEK ARE HOLDING IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
TNZ009>011-031>034-065-066-080.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KMRX 271133 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
633 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
-SN AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KTRI EARLY THIS
MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCT/BKN DECKS OF LOW IFR CIGS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AT EACH TERMINAL. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT...BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT
AFTER SUNSET...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND DRY WEATHER PREVAILING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK-
     JOHNSON-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-SCOTT TN-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KOHX 271015
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
415 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SNOW HAS HELD OFF MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE SURFACE
LOW SKIRTING ACROSS THE TN AND KY BORDER LAST EVENING AND
CURRENTLY IN EASTERN TN. BACKSIDE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE LOW HAS
BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO KY AND CURRENTLY THOSE BANDS OF
SNOW ARE JUST ENTERING NORTH CENTRAL TN. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LESS
THAN AN INCH ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SHORT TERM MODELS KEEP THE
BACKSIDE FORCING AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO HAVE QPF THROUGH 18Z
TODAY...SO FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEAST AND PLATEAU THIS MORNING. COLD
TEMPERATURES CAN STILL BE EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD
COVER LINGERS AROUND LONGER DURING THE DAY. HIGHS FOR THE MOST
PART ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MIDDLE TN. THE SUN MAY
POP OUT IF CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES EARLIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS AROUND -8C TO -10C SHOULD ACT TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO MUCH HIGHER THAN FORECASTED.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE
IN ALONG WITH SOME LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THIS SHOULD ACT TO
DECREASE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY TODAY AND PAVE THE WAY FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY 00Z SAT...SO A NICE REBOUND
OF TEMPERATURES WILL HAPPEN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLY LATE SATURDAY WITH
WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE UPPER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GENERATING
WEAK QPF OUTPUT ATTM. BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A POTENT COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN THE CONUS. THANKFULLY
THIS COLD AIRMASS GETS MODIFIED AS IT SLIDES DOWN THE MIDWEST SO
MIDDLE TN SHOULD NOT SEE A DRAMATIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE. AFTER THIS
POINT MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS SEPARATING A BIT...BUT PRECIP CHANCES
ON AND OFF THROUGH NEXT WEEK ARE HOLDING IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      41  25  49  36 /  20  05   0  05
CLARKSVILLE    39  23  48  36 /  10  05   0  05
CROSSVILLE     38  21  42  32 /  30  05   0  05
COLUMBIA       41  24  49  35 /  10  05   0  05
LAWRENCEBURG   42  24  50  34 /  10   0   0  05
WAVERLY        41  24  50  37 /  10  05   0  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
TNZ009>011-031>034-065-066-080.

&&

$$

BARNWELL





000
FXUS64 KOHX 271015
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
415 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SNOW HAS HELD OFF MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE SURFACE
LOW SKIRTING ACROSS THE TN AND KY BORDER LAST EVENING AND
CURRENTLY IN EASTERN TN. BACKSIDE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE LOW HAS
BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO KY AND CURRENTLY THOSE BANDS OF
SNOW ARE JUST ENTERING NORTH CENTRAL TN. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LESS
THAN AN INCH ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SHORT TERM MODELS KEEP THE
BACKSIDE FORCING AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO HAVE QPF THROUGH 18Z
TODAY...SO FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEAST AND PLATEAU THIS MORNING. COLD
TEMPERATURES CAN STILL BE EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD
COVER LINGERS AROUND LONGER DURING THE DAY. HIGHS FOR THE MOST
PART ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MIDDLE TN. THE SUN MAY
POP OUT IF CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES EARLIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS AROUND -8C TO -10C SHOULD ACT TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO MUCH HIGHER THAN FORECASTED.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE
IN ALONG WITH SOME LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THIS SHOULD ACT TO
DECREASE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY TODAY AND PAVE THE WAY FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY 00Z SAT...SO A NICE REBOUND
OF TEMPERATURES WILL HAPPEN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLY LATE SATURDAY WITH
WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE UPPER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GENERATING
WEAK QPF OUTPUT ATTM. BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A POTENT COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN THE CONUS. THANKFULLY
THIS COLD AIRMASS GETS MODIFIED AS IT SLIDES DOWN THE MIDWEST SO
MIDDLE TN SHOULD NOT SEE A DRAMATIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE. AFTER THIS
POINT MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS SEPARATING A BIT...BUT PRECIP CHANCES
ON AND OFF THROUGH NEXT WEEK ARE HOLDING IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      41  25  49  36 /  20  05   0  05
CLARKSVILLE    39  23  48  36 /  10  05   0  05
CROSSVILLE     38  21  42  32 /  30  05   0  05
COLUMBIA       41  24  49  35 /  10  05   0  05
LAWRENCEBURG   42  24  50  34 /  10   0   0  05
WAVERLY        41  24  50  37 /  10  05   0  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
TNZ009>011-031>034-065-066-080.

&&

$$

BARNWELL






000
FXUS64 KOHX 271015
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
415 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SNOW HAS HELD OFF MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE SURFACE
LOW SKIRTING ACROSS THE TN AND KY BORDER LAST EVENING AND
CURRENTLY IN EASTERN TN. BACKSIDE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE LOW HAS
BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO KY AND CURRENTLY THOSE BANDS OF
SNOW ARE JUST ENTERING NORTH CENTRAL TN. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LESS
THAN AN INCH ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SHORT TERM MODELS KEEP THE
BACKSIDE FORCING AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO HAVE QPF THROUGH 18Z
TODAY...SO FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEAST AND PLATEAU THIS MORNING. COLD
TEMPERATURES CAN STILL BE EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD
COVER LINGERS AROUND LONGER DURING THE DAY. HIGHS FOR THE MOST
PART ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MIDDLE TN. THE SUN MAY
POP OUT IF CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES EARLIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS AROUND -8C TO -10C SHOULD ACT TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO MUCH HIGHER THAN FORECASTED.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE
IN ALONG WITH SOME LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THIS SHOULD ACT TO
DECREASE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY TODAY AND PAVE THE WAY FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY 00Z SAT...SO A NICE REBOUND
OF TEMPERATURES WILL HAPPEN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLY LATE SATURDAY WITH
WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE UPPER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GENERATING
WEAK QPF OUTPUT ATTM. BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A POTENT COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN THE CONUS. THANKFULLY
THIS COLD AIRMASS GETS MODIFIED AS IT SLIDES DOWN THE MIDWEST SO
MIDDLE TN SHOULD NOT SEE A DRAMATIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE. AFTER THIS
POINT MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS SEPARATING A BIT...BUT PRECIP CHANCES
ON AND OFF THROUGH NEXT WEEK ARE HOLDING IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      41  25  49  36 /  20  05   0  05
CLARKSVILLE    39  23  48  36 /  10  05   0  05
CROSSVILLE     38  21  42  32 /  30  05   0  05
COLUMBIA       41  24  49  35 /  10  05   0  05
LAWRENCEBURG   42  24  50  34 /  10   0   0  05
WAVERLY        41  24  50  37 /  10  05   0  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
TNZ009>011-031>034-065-066-080.

&&

$$

BARNWELL






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