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  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMRX 312327 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
727 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR



000
FXUS64 KMRX 312327 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
727 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMEG 312322
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
622 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES FOR THE FORECAST... AS WE CLOSE OUT THE MONTH OF
JULY. A MODIFIED MIDCONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL DEWPOINTS. FOLLOWING NEAR NORMAL NIGHTTIME
LOWS...THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL WARM TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY MONDAY...850MB TEMPS WARM TO 21 TO 23C...AROUND 4C WARMER THAN
SATURDAY AND LIKELY SUPPORTIVE OF UPPER 90S SURFACE TEMPS. MIDAFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES SHOULD PREVAIL IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.

THE NEXT APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE EARLY WEDNESDAY...
COURTESY OF MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DEPICTED A SLIGHTLY
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RELATIVE TO EARLIER RUNS...WITH A
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH TRACK. AS SUCH...THE MIDWEEK SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS DEPICTED WEAKER ON THE ECMWF AND NOT EVEN PRESENT ON THE
GFS.

12Z GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BEYOND MIDWEEK...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE MIDSOUTH...
RESULTING IN COOLER/UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK. CONVERSELY...
THE 12Z ECMWF BUILDS THE RIDGE EAST INTO WESTERN AR BY THE END OF
FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
MIDSOUTH. FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST...FOLLOWED A COMPROMISE
BLENDED SOLUTION...ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7.

LOOKING BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS APPEAR
TO SETTLE BACK INTO AGREEMENT...AS THE ECMWF RETROGRADES THE
RIDGE...LEAVING LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
MIDSOUTH BY THE 10TH OF AUGUST. THE MAIN TAKEAWAY... NO SIGNIFICANT
HEAT WAVES APPEAR ON THE HORIZON...AT LEAST NOT TO THE EXTENT OF
THE MOST RECENT HEAT EVENT EARLIER THIS PAST WEEK. JUST TYPICAL
EARLY AUGUST HEAT.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (31/18Z-01/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 312322
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
622 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES FOR THE FORECAST... AS WE CLOSE OUT THE MONTH OF
JULY. A MODIFIED MIDCONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL DEWPOINTS. FOLLOWING NEAR NORMAL NIGHTTIME
LOWS...THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL WARM TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY MONDAY...850MB TEMPS WARM TO 21 TO 23C...AROUND 4C WARMER THAN
SATURDAY AND LIKELY SUPPORTIVE OF UPPER 90S SURFACE TEMPS. MIDAFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES SHOULD PREVAIL IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.

THE NEXT APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE EARLY WEDNESDAY...
COURTESY OF MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DEPICTED A SLIGHTLY
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RELATIVE TO EARLIER RUNS...WITH A
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH TRACK. AS SUCH...THE MIDWEEK SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS DEPICTED WEAKER ON THE ECMWF AND NOT EVEN PRESENT ON THE
GFS.

12Z GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BEYOND MIDWEEK...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE MIDSOUTH...
RESULTING IN COOLER/UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK. CONVERSELY...
THE 12Z ECMWF BUILDS THE RIDGE EAST INTO WESTERN AR BY THE END OF
FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
MIDSOUTH. FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST...FOLLOWED A COMPROMISE
BLENDED SOLUTION...ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7.

LOOKING BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS APPEAR
TO SETTLE BACK INTO AGREEMENT...AS THE ECMWF RETROGRADES THE
RIDGE...LEAVING LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
MIDSOUTH BY THE 10TH OF AUGUST. THE MAIN TAKEAWAY... NO SIGNIFICANT
HEAT WAVES APPEAR ON THE HORIZON...AT LEAST NOT TO THE EXTENT OF
THE MOST RECENT HEAT EVENT EARLIER THIS PAST WEEK. JUST TYPICAL
EARLY AUGUST HEAT.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (31/18Z-01/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 312322
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
622 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES FOR THE FORECAST... AS WE CLOSE OUT THE MONTH OF
JULY. A MODIFIED MIDCONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL DEWPOINTS. FOLLOWING NEAR NORMAL NIGHTTIME
LOWS...THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL WARM TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY MONDAY...850MB TEMPS WARM TO 21 TO 23C...AROUND 4C WARMER THAN
SATURDAY AND LIKELY SUPPORTIVE OF UPPER 90S SURFACE TEMPS. MIDAFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES SHOULD PREVAIL IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.

THE NEXT APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE EARLY WEDNESDAY...
COURTESY OF MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DEPICTED A SLIGHTLY
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RELATIVE TO EARLIER RUNS...WITH A
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH TRACK. AS SUCH...THE MIDWEEK SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS DEPICTED WEAKER ON THE ECMWF AND NOT EVEN PRESENT ON THE
GFS.

12Z GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BEYOND MIDWEEK...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE MIDSOUTH...
RESULTING IN COOLER/UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK. CONVERSELY...
THE 12Z ECMWF BUILDS THE RIDGE EAST INTO WESTERN AR BY THE END OF
FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
MIDSOUTH. FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST...FOLLOWED A COMPROMISE
BLENDED SOLUTION...ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7.

LOOKING BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS APPEAR
TO SETTLE BACK INTO AGREEMENT...AS THE ECMWF RETROGRADES THE
RIDGE...LEAVING LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
MIDSOUTH BY THE 10TH OF AUGUST. THE MAIN TAKEAWAY... NO SIGNIFICANT
HEAT WAVES APPEAR ON THE HORIZON...AT LEAST NOT TO THE EXTENT OF
THE MOST RECENT HEAT EVENT EARLIER THIS PAST WEEK. JUST TYPICAL
EARLY AUGUST HEAT.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (31/18Z-01/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 312322
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
622 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES FOR THE FORECAST... AS WE CLOSE OUT THE MONTH OF
JULY. A MODIFIED MIDCONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL DEWPOINTS. FOLLOWING NEAR NORMAL NIGHTTIME
LOWS...THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL WARM TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY MONDAY...850MB TEMPS WARM TO 21 TO 23C...AROUND 4C WARMER THAN
SATURDAY AND LIKELY SUPPORTIVE OF UPPER 90S SURFACE TEMPS. MIDAFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES SHOULD PREVAIL IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.

THE NEXT APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE EARLY WEDNESDAY...
COURTESY OF MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DEPICTED A SLIGHTLY
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RELATIVE TO EARLIER RUNS...WITH A
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH TRACK. AS SUCH...THE MIDWEEK SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS DEPICTED WEAKER ON THE ECMWF AND NOT EVEN PRESENT ON THE
GFS.

12Z GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BEYOND MIDWEEK...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE MIDSOUTH...
RESULTING IN COOLER/UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK. CONVERSELY...
THE 12Z ECMWF BUILDS THE RIDGE EAST INTO WESTERN AR BY THE END OF
FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
MIDSOUTH. FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST...FOLLOWED A COMPROMISE
BLENDED SOLUTION...ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7.

LOOKING BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS APPEAR
TO SETTLE BACK INTO AGREEMENT...AS THE ECMWF RETROGRADES THE
RIDGE...LEAVING LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
MIDSOUTH BY THE 10TH OF AUGUST. THE MAIN TAKEAWAY... NO SIGNIFICANT
HEAT WAVES APPEAR ON THE HORIZON...AT LEAST NOT TO THE EXTENT OF
THE MOST RECENT HEAT EVENT EARLIER THIS PAST WEEK. JUST TYPICAL
EARLY AUGUST HEAT.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (31/18Z-01/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 312048
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
348 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES FOR THE FORECAST... AS WE CLOSE OUT THE MONTH OF
JULY. A MODIFIED MIDCONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL DEWPOINTS. FOLLOWING NEAR NORMAL NIGHTTIME
LOWS...THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL WARM TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY MONDAY...850MB TEMPS WARM TO 21 TO 23C...AROUND 4C WARMER THAN
SATURDAY AND LIKELY SUPPORTIVE OF UPPER 90S SURFACE TEMPS. MIDAFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES SHOULD PREVAIL IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.

THE NEXT APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE EARLY WEDNESDAY...
COURTESY OF MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DEPICTED A SLIGHTLY
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RELATIVE TO EARLIER RUNS...WITH A
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH TRACK. AS SUCH...THE MIDWEEK SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS DEPICTED WEAKER ON THE ECMWF AND NOT EVEN PRESENT ON THE
GFS.

12Z GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BEYOND MIDWEEK...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE MIDSOUTH...
RESULTING IN COOLER/UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK. CONVERSELY...
THE 12Z ECMWF BUILDS THE RIDGE EAST INTO WESTERN AR BY THE END OF
FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
MIDSOUTH. FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST...FOLLOWED A COMPROMISE
BLENDED SOLUTION...ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7.

LOOKING BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS APPEAR
TO SETTLE BACK INTO AGREEMENT...AS THE ECMWF RETROGRADES THE
RIDGE...LEAVING LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
MIDSOUTH BY THE 10TH OF AUGUST. THE MAIN TAKEAWAY... NO SIGNIFICANT
HEAT WAVES APPEAR ON THE HORIZON...AT LEAST NOT TO THE EXTENT OF
THE MOST RECENT HEAT EVENT EARLIER THIS PAST WEEK. JUST TYPICAL
EARLY AUGUST HEAT.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE (31/18Z-01/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TODAY NE 9-12
KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 18 KTS. WINDS TONIGHT NE 6 KTS OR LESS.
WINDS SATURDAY MORNING NE-E 4-9 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 312048
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
348 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES FOR THE FORECAST... AS WE CLOSE OUT THE MONTH OF
JULY. A MODIFIED MIDCONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL DEWPOINTS. FOLLOWING NEAR NORMAL NIGHTTIME
LOWS...THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL WARM TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY MONDAY...850MB TEMPS WARM TO 21 TO 23C...AROUND 4C WARMER THAN
SATURDAY AND LIKELY SUPPORTIVE OF UPPER 90S SURFACE TEMPS. MIDAFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES SHOULD PREVAIL IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.

THE NEXT APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE EARLY WEDNESDAY...
COURTESY OF MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DEPICTED A SLIGHTLY
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RELATIVE TO EARLIER RUNS...WITH A
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH TRACK. AS SUCH...THE MIDWEEK SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS DEPICTED WEAKER ON THE ECMWF AND NOT EVEN PRESENT ON THE
GFS.

12Z GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BEYOND MIDWEEK...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE MIDSOUTH...
RESULTING IN COOLER/UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK. CONVERSELY...
THE 12Z ECMWF BUILDS THE RIDGE EAST INTO WESTERN AR BY THE END OF
FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
MIDSOUTH. FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST...FOLLOWED A COMPROMISE
BLENDED SOLUTION...ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7.

LOOKING BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS APPEAR
TO SETTLE BACK INTO AGREEMENT...AS THE ECMWF RETROGRADES THE
RIDGE...LEAVING LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
MIDSOUTH BY THE 10TH OF AUGUST. THE MAIN TAKEAWAY... NO SIGNIFICANT
HEAT WAVES APPEAR ON THE HORIZON...AT LEAST NOT TO THE EXTENT OF
THE MOST RECENT HEAT EVENT EARLIER THIS PAST WEEK. JUST TYPICAL
EARLY AUGUST HEAT.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE (31/18Z-01/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TODAY NE 9-12
KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 18 KTS. WINDS TONIGHT NE 6 KTS OR LESS.
WINDS SATURDAY MORNING NE-E 4-9 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOHX 311948
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
248 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES
HIGHLIGHTED MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, TEMPS HAD ALREADY PUSHED TO BETWEEN 88 AND 90 DEGREES
IN THE BNA/CKV AREA. HOWEVER, THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WAS ENJOYING
SOMEWHAT MORE PLEASANT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

MUCH DRIER AIR HAS CONTINUED TO FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY OVER THE LAST 24 HRS AND AT 2 PM CDT DEW POINTS
WERE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S OVER ALL BUT THE WESTERN PART OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

CAN`T SEE ANY REASON WHY TEMPS SHOULD NOT BE AS COOL AS THOSE LAST
NIGHT. SO, HAVE BASICALLY GONE WITH SAME LOWS, RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY CHILLIER LOCATIONS OF THE EAST, TO THE
MIDDLE 60S OVER THE WEST.

AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
MID STATE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, WITH DRY, BUT SEASONABLY HOT,
AFTERNOONS, AND PLEASANTLY COOL TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DROP A COLD FRONT INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY, BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY INTO TUESDAY.
BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BE LOCATED INVOF THE FRONT, WITH SOME
TSTMS POSSIBLY WORKING THEIR WAY INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF KENTUCKY
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH IT`S POSSIBLE A FEW OF THOSE STORMS
COULD GRAZE OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES, THE CONFIDENCE IS SO LOW
AT THIS POINT THAT IT SEEMS THE BEST IDEA TO JUST KEEP A DRY
FORECAST RUNNING THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/WED.

EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO PUSH INTO THE MISSOURI AREA BY
LATE DAY TUESDAY, ENHANCING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION THERE.
EXPECT THESE STORMS TO PROBABLY HEAD EAST SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY ARRIVE
IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...AFTER PASSAGE OF FIRST UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, BELIEVE WE WILL BE BACK IN OUR ALL-TOO-
FAMILIAR NWLY FLOW PATTERN, WITH HOT, HUMID DAYS FOR THE
THURSDAY-TO-FRIDAY PERIOD, AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      66  92  65  93 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    64  89  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     61  84  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       62  91  61  92 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   65  91  64  92 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        64  90  64  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KOHX 311948
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
248 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES
HIGHLIGHTED MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, TEMPS HAD ALREADY PUSHED TO BETWEEN 88 AND 90 DEGREES
IN THE BNA/CKV AREA. HOWEVER, THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WAS ENJOYING
SOMEWHAT MORE PLEASANT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

MUCH DRIER AIR HAS CONTINUED TO FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY OVER THE LAST 24 HRS AND AT 2 PM CDT DEW POINTS
WERE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S OVER ALL BUT THE WESTERN PART OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

CAN`T SEE ANY REASON WHY TEMPS SHOULD NOT BE AS COOL AS THOSE LAST
NIGHT. SO, HAVE BASICALLY GONE WITH SAME LOWS, RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY CHILLIER LOCATIONS OF THE EAST, TO THE
MIDDLE 60S OVER THE WEST.

AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
MID STATE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, WITH DRY, BUT SEASONABLY HOT,
AFTERNOONS, AND PLEASANTLY COOL TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DROP A COLD FRONT INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY, BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY INTO TUESDAY.
BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BE LOCATED INVOF THE FRONT, WITH SOME
TSTMS POSSIBLY WORKING THEIR WAY INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF KENTUCKY
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH IT`S POSSIBLE A FEW OF THOSE STORMS
COULD GRAZE OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES, THE CONFIDENCE IS SO LOW
AT THIS POINT THAT IT SEEMS THE BEST IDEA TO JUST KEEP A DRY
FORECAST RUNNING THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/WED.

EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO PUSH INTO THE MISSOURI AREA BY
LATE DAY TUESDAY, ENHANCING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION THERE.
EXPECT THESE STORMS TO PROBABLY HEAD EAST SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY ARRIVE
IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...AFTER PASSAGE OF FIRST UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, BELIEVE WE WILL BE BACK IN OUR ALL-TOO-
FAMILIAR NWLY FLOW PATTERN, WITH HOT, HUMID DAYS FOR THE
THURSDAY-TO-FRIDAY PERIOD, AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      66  92  65  93 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    64  89  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     61  84  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       62  91  61  92 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   65  91  64  92 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        64  90  64  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19



000
FXUS64 KMRX 311905
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
305 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
A VERY QUIET DAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN...ALONG WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR. THE SUNNY CONDITIONS HAVE HELPED TEMPS CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 80S...AND THEY WILL LIKELY TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 OR 91 THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RH VALUES ARE MUCH LOWER
MAKING FOR A MORE COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE
CLEAR AND MOSTLY CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...MAKING FOR A GREAT VIEWING EXPERIENCE FOR THE BLUE MOON
/SECOND FULL MOON OF JULY/ TONIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING...AND ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY...
BEFORE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS PERHAPS A DEGREE
HIGHER THAN TODAY.


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WITH
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION. THIS TRANSLATES INTO DRY...WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A COUPLE OF WEAK
IMPULSES IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL TRACK THROUGH TO OUR NORTH AND MAY
BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO NORTHERN LOCATIONS.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD BUT GENERALLY A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN WILL GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             67  92  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  64  90  65  89 /   0   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       64  90  65  89 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              59  87  59  86 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP



000
FXUS64 KMRX 311905
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
305 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
A VERY QUIET DAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN...ALONG WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR. THE SUNNY CONDITIONS HAVE HELPED TEMPS CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 80S...AND THEY WILL LIKELY TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 OR 91 THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RH VALUES ARE MUCH LOWER
MAKING FOR A MORE COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE
CLEAR AND MOSTLY CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...MAKING FOR A GREAT VIEWING EXPERIENCE FOR THE BLUE MOON
/SECOND FULL MOON OF JULY/ TONIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING...AND ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY...
BEFORE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS PERHAPS A DEGREE
HIGHER THAN TODAY.


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WITH
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION. THIS TRANSLATES INTO DRY...WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A COUPLE OF WEAK
IMPULSES IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL TRACK THROUGH TO OUR NORTH AND MAY
BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO NORTHERN LOCATIONS.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD BUT GENERALLY A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN WILL GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             67  92  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  64  90  65  89 /   0   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       64  90  65  89 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              59  87  59  86 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 311743 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
143 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 311743 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
143 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP



000
FXUS64 KMRX 311743 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
143 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMEG 311731 AAB
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1231 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 314 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE
NATION THIS MORNING AS UPPER RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE MID SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND PLEASANT MID
SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN AND ALLOW FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO INCREASE. HOTTER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 90S CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS INCREASED HUMIDITY PUSHES HEAT INDEX VALUES
ABOVE 100 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND STALLS. A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND HELP TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL SOME BUT WITH CONTINUED HIGH
HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (31/18Z-01/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TODAY NE 9-12
KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 18 KTS. WINDS TONIGHT NE 6 KTS OR LESS.
WINDS SATURDAY MORNING NE-E 4-9 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 311731 AAB
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1231 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 314 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE
NATION THIS MORNING AS UPPER RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE MID SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND PLEASANT MID
SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN AND ALLOW FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO INCREASE. HOTTER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 90S CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS INCREASED HUMIDITY PUSHES HEAT INDEX VALUES
ABOVE 100 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND STALLS. A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND HELP TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL SOME BUT WITH CONTINUED HIGH
HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (31/18Z-01/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TODAY NE 9-12
KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 18 KTS. WINDS TONIGHT NE 6 KTS OR LESS.
WINDS SATURDAY MORNING NE-E 4-9 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 311652
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1152 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAF`S...BNA/CKV/CSV...CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SITUATED JUST TO OUR NORTH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/CALM BY
MID- EVENING, BUT THE AIR MASS IS SO DRY WE ARE ONCE AGAIN NOT
EXPECTING ANY RADIATION FOG, SO LOOK FOR VFR WX FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH ONLY A BIT OF CIRRUS AND
LIGHT NORTH WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG WITH VIS RESTRICTIONS AT
CKV/CSV WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE ATTM DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

VERY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER RIDGING TRIES TO
BUILD IN ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO SIT OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...WITH THE ABSENCE OF ANY
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO DOMINATE INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. SOME SHORT TERM MODELS POP UP SOME SMALL
ISOLATED ACTIVITY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT MENTION IN THE
GRIDS. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER TO
START OFF THE WEEKEND SINCE NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
STICK AROUND UNTIL SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE STEADILY AS
THE DAYS CONTINUE...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS RIGHT NOW LOOKING TO BE
ON TUESDAY WHEN LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FINALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.

BY NEXT WEDNESDAY...A BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIP WILL MOVE IN AS AN
UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO MOVE IN. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER JUST A BIT
ON THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT EXISTS BY THURSDAY IN REGARDS TO THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH AND SOME SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW.
BLANKETED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA SINCE CONVECTION SEEMS MORE
LIKELY WITH THIS PATTERN IN THE SUMMER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      90  69  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    88  68  88  67 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     85  64  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       90  66  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   89  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        89  68  89  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08



000
FXUS64 KOHX 311652
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1152 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAF`S...BNA/CKV/CSV...CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SITUATED JUST TO OUR NORTH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/CALM BY
MID- EVENING, BUT THE AIR MASS IS SO DRY WE ARE ONCE AGAIN NOT
EXPECTING ANY RADIATION FOG, SO LOOK FOR VFR WX FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH ONLY A BIT OF CIRRUS AND
LIGHT NORTH WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG WITH VIS RESTRICTIONS AT
CKV/CSV WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE ATTM DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

VERY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER RIDGING TRIES TO
BUILD IN ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO SIT OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...WITH THE ABSENCE OF ANY
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO DOMINATE INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. SOME SHORT TERM MODELS POP UP SOME SMALL
ISOLATED ACTIVITY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT MENTION IN THE
GRIDS. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER TO
START OFF THE WEEKEND SINCE NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
STICK AROUND UNTIL SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE STEADILY AS
THE DAYS CONTINUE...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS RIGHT NOW LOOKING TO BE
ON TUESDAY WHEN LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FINALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.

BY NEXT WEDNESDAY...A BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIP WILL MOVE IN AS AN
UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO MOVE IN. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER JUST A BIT
ON THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT EXISTS BY THURSDAY IN REGARDS TO THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH AND SOME SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW.
BLANKETED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA SINCE CONVECTION SEEMS MORE
LIKELY WITH THIS PATTERN IN THE SUMMER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      90  69  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    88  68  88  67 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     85  64  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       90  66  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   89  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        89  68  89  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08




000
FXUS64 KMRX 311335 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
935 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A BEAUTIFUL CLEAR AND SUNNY DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR
HAS FILTERED IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING IT FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE.
DESPITE SOME LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW...AMPLE SUNSHINE AND GOOD HEATING
WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ONCE AGAIN.
BUT...IT WILL FEEL MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS GIVEN
THE MUCH LOWER RH VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             91  64  93  66 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  90  64  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       90  63  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              89  58  86  59 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 311335 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
935 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A BEAUTIFUL CLEAR AND SUNNY DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR
HAS FILTERED IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING IT FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE.
DESPITE SOME LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW...AMPLE SUNSHINE AND GOOD HEATING
WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ONCE AGAIN.
BUT...IT WILL FEEL MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS GIVEN
THE MUCH LOWER RH VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             91  64  93  66 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  90  64  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       90  63  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              89  58  86  59 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 311335 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
935 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A BEAUTIFUL CLEAR AND SUNNY DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR
HAS FILTERED IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING IT FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE.
DESPITE SOME LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW...AMPLE SUNSHINE AND GOOD HEATING
WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ONCE AGAIN.
BUT...IT WILL FEEL MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS GIVEN
THE MUCH LOWER RH VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             91  64  93  66 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  90  64  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       90  63  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              89  58  86  59 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 311335 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
935 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A BEAUTIFUL CLEAR AND SUNNY DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR
HAS FILTERED IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING IT FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE.
DESPITE SOME LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW...AMPLE SUNSHINE AND GOOD HEATING
WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ONCE AGAIN.
BUT...IT WILL FEEL MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS GIVEN
THE MUCH LOWER RH VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             91  64  93  66 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  90  64  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       90  63  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              89  58  86  59 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 311335 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
935 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A BEAUTIFUL CLEAR AND SUNNY DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR
HAS FILTERED IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING IT FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE.
DESPITE SOME LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW...AMPLE SUNSHINE AND GOOD HEATING
WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ONCE AGAIN.
BUT...IT WILL FEEL MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS GIVEN
THE MUCH LOWER RH VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             91  64  93  66 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  90  64  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       90  63  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              89  58  86  59 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 311335 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
935 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A BEAUTIFUL CLEAR AND SUNNY DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR
HAS FILTERED IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING IT FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE.
DESPITE SOME LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW...AMPLE SUNSHINE AND GOOD HEATING
WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ONCE AGAIN.
BUT...IT WILL FEEL MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS GIVEN
THE MUCH LOWER RH VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             91  64  93  66 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  90  64  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       90  63  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              89  58  86  59 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP



000
FXUS64 KMEG 311134
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
634 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE
NATION THIS MORNING AS UPPER RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE MID SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND PLEASANT MID
SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN AND ALLOW FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO INCREASE. HOTTER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 90S CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS INCREASED HUMIDITY PUSHES HEAT INDEX VALUES
ABOVE 100 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND STALLS. A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND HELP TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL SOME BUT WITH CONTINUED HIGH
HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. N/NE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 7-11 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 18 KTS AFTER 31/18Z
THEN BECOME LIGHT AFTER 01/00Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 311134
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
634 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE
NATION THIS MORNING AS UPPER RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE MID SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND PLEASANT MID
SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN AND ALLOW FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO INCREASE. HOTTER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 90S CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS INCREASED HUMIDITY PUSHES HEAT INDEX VALUES
ABOVE 100 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND STALLS. A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND HELP TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL SOME BUT WITH CONTINUED HIGH
HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. N/NE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 7-11 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 18 KTS AFTER 31/18Z
THEN BECOME LIGHT AFTER 01/00Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 311134
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
634 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE
NATION THIS MORNING AS UPPER RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE MID SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND PLEASANT MID
SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN AND ALLOW FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO INCREASE. HOTTER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 90S CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS INCREASED HUMIDITY PUSHES HEAT INDEX VALUES
ABOVE 100 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND STALLS. A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND HELP TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL SOME BUT WITH CONTINUED HIGH
HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. N/NE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 7-11 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 18 KTS AFTER 31/18Z
THEN BECOME LIGHT AFTER 01/00Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 311134
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
634 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE
NATION THIS MORNING AS UPPER RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE MID SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND PLEASANT MID
SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN AND ALLOW FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO INCREASE. HOTTER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 90S CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS INCREASED HUMIDITY PUSHES HEAT INDEX VALUES
ABOVE 100 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND STALLS. A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND HELP TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL SOME BUT WITH CONTINUED HIGH
HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. N/NE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 7-11 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 18 KTS AFTER 31/18Z
THEN BECOME LIGHT AFTER 01/00Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 311122
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
622 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH ONLY A BIT OF CIRRUS AND
LIGHT NORTH WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG WITH VIS RESTRICTIONS AT
CKV/CSV WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE ATTM DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

VERY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER RIDGING TRIES TO
BUILD IN ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO SIT OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...WITH THE ABSENCE OF ANY
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO DOMINATE INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. SOME SHORT TERM MODELS POP UP SOME SMALL
ISOLATED ACTIVITY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT MENTION IN THE
GRIDS. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER TO
START OFF THE WEEKEND SINCE NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
STICK AROUND UNTIL SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE STEADILY AS
THE DAYS CONTINUE...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS RIGHT NOW LOOKING TO BE
ON TUESDAY WHEN LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FINALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.

BY NEXT WEDNESDAY...A BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIP WILL MOVE IN AS AN
UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO MOVE IN. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER JUST A BIT
ON THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT EXISTS BY THURSDAY IN REGARDS TO THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH AND SOME SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW.
BLANKETED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA SINCE CONVECTION SEEMS MORE
LIKELY WITH THIS PATTERN IN THE SUMMER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      90  69  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    88  68  88  67 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     85  64  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       90  66  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   89  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        89  68  89  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55




000
FXUS64 KMRX 311121
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
721 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. NORTH WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS TODAY AT
CHA...AND LESS THAN 10 KTS AT TYS AND TRI.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS



000
FXUS64 KMEG 310814
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
314 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE
NATION THIS MORNING AS UPPER RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE MID SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND PLEASANT MID
SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN AND ALLOW FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO INCREASE. HOTTER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 90S CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS INCREASED HUMIDITY PUSHES HEAT INDEX VALUES
ABOVE 100 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND STALLS. A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND HELP TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL SOME BUT WITH CONTINUED HIGH
HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 7-10 KTS POSSIBLY WITH HIGHER GUSTS BETWEEN 14Z-00Z.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 310814
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
314 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE
NATION THIS MORNING AS UPPER RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE MID SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND PLEASANT MID
SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN AND ALLOW FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO INCREASE. HOTTER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 90S CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS INCREASED HUMIDITY PUSHES HEAT INDEX VALUES
ABOVE 100 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND STALLS. A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND HELP TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL SOME BUT WITH CONTINUED HIGH
HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 7-10 KTS POSSIBLY WITH HIGHER GUSTS BETWEEN 14Z-00Z.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 310733
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
233 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

VERY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER RIDGING TRIES TO
BUILD IN ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO SIT OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...WITH THE ABSENCE OF ANY
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO DOMINATE INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. SOME SHORT TERM MODELS POP UP SOME SMALL
ISOLATED ACTIVITY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT MENTION IN THE
GRIDS. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER TO
START OFF THE WEEKEND SINCE NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
STICK AROUND UNTIL SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE STEADILY AS
THE DAYS CONTINUE...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS RIGHT NOW LOOKING TO BE
ON TUESDAY WHEN LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FINALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.

BY NEXT WEDNESDAY...A BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIP WILL MOVE IN AS AN
UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO MOVE IN. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER JUST A BIT
ON THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT EXISTS BY THURSDAY IN REGARDS TO THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH AND SOME SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW.
BLANKETED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA SINCE CONVECTION SEEMS MORE
LIKELY WITH THIS PATTERN IN THE SUMMER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      90  69  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    88  68  88  67 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     85  64  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       90  66  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   89  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        89  68  89  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BARNWELL



000
FXUS64 KMRX 310705
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
305 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
A DRIER AIR MASS HAS BEEN BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD/DRY FRONT YESTERDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS THE E-
W HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS KY THIS MORNING SAGS SOUTHWARD.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...AND TEMPS WILL BE 1-3 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND DOWNRIGHT COOL
IN SPOTS...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM (TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS WE START OFF THE WEEKEND. VERY LITTLE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL STAY A BIT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMAL VALUES AS RIDGING REMAINS RELATIVELY SUPPRESSED AND STAYS OFF
TO OUR WEST. HOTTEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES
CLOSER TO US BEFORE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES MOVE
IN.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY, BUT MODELS START TO DIVERGE WITH WHAT
TO DO AS FAR AS ENDING TIME FOR PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE MENTION
OF SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AND WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE HIGHLIGHTING
BEST TIME FRAME FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             91  64  93  66 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  90  64  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       90  63  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              89  58  86  59 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 310705
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
305 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
A DRIER AIR MASS HAS BEEN BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD/DRY FRONT YESTERDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS THE E-
W HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS KY THIS MORNING SAGS SOUTHWARD.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...AND TEMPS WILL BE 1-3 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND DOWNRIGHT COOL
IN SPOTS...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM (TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS WE START OFF THE WEEKEND. VERY LITTLE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL STAY A BIT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMAL VALUES AS RIDGING REMAINS RELATIVELY SUPPRESSED AND STAYS OFF
TO OUR WEST. HOTTEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES
CLOSER TO US BEFORE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES MOVE
IN.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY, BUT MODELS START TO DIVERGE WITH WHAT
TO DO AS FAR AS ENDING TIME FOR PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE MENTION
OF SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AND WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE HIGHLIGHTING
BEST TIME FRAME FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             91  64  93  66 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  90  64  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       90  63  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              89  58  86  59 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/ABM



000
FXUS64 KMRX 310705
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
305 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
A DRIER AIR MASS HAS BEEN BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD/DRY FRONT YESTERDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS THE E-
W HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS KY THIS MORNING SAGS SOUTHWARD.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...AND TEMPS WILL BE 1-3 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND DOWNRIGHT COOL
IN SPOTS...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM (TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS WE START OFF THE WEEKEND. VERY LITTLE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL STAY A BIT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMAL VALUES AS RIDGING REMAINS RELATIVELY SUPPRESSED AND STAYS OFF
TO OUR WEST. HOTTEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES
CLOSER TO US BEFORE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES MOVE
IN.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY, BUT MODELS START TO DIVERGE WITH WHAT
TO DO AS FAR AS ENDING TIME FOR PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE MENTION
OF SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AND WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE HIGHLIGHTING
BEST TIME FRAME FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             91  64  93  66 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  90  64  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       90  63  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              89  58  86  59 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/ABM



000
FXUS64 KMRX 310705
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
305 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
A DRIER AIR MASS HAS BEEN BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD/DRY FRONT YESTERDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS THE E-
W HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS KY THIS MORNING SAGS SOUTHWARD.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...AND TEMPS WILL BE 1-3 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND DOWNRIGHT COOL
IN SPOTS...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM (TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS WE START OFF THE WEEKEND. VERY LITTLE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL STAY A BIT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMAL VALUES AS RIDGING REMAINS RELATIVELY SUPPRESSED AND STAYS OFF
TO OUR WEST. HOTTEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES
CLOSER TO US BEFORE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES MOVE
IN.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY, BUT MODELS START TO DIVERGE WITH WHAT
TO DO AS FAR AS ENDING TIME FOR PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE MENTION
OF SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AND WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE HIGHLIGHTING
BEST TIME FRAME FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             91  64  93  66 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  90  64  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       90  63  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              89  58  86  59 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/ABM



000
FXUS64 KMRX 310705
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
305 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
A DRIER AIR MASS HAS BEEN BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD/DRY FRONT YESTERDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS THE E-
W HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS KY THIS MORNING SAGS SOUTHWARD.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...AND TEMPS WILL BE 1-3 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND DOWNRIGHT COOL
IN SPOTS...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM (TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS WE START OFF THE WEEKEND. VERY LITTLE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL STAY A BIT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMAL VALUES AS RIDGING REMAINS RELATIVELY SUPPRESSED AND STAYS OFF
TO OUR WEST. HOTTEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES
CLOSER TO US BEFORE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES MOVE
IN.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY, BUT MODELS START TO DIVERGE WITH WHAT
TO DO AS FAR AS ENDING TIME FOR PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE MENTION
OF SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AND WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE HIGHLIGHTING
BEST TIME FRAME FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             91  64  93  66 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  90  64  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       90  63  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              89  58  86  59 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/ABM



000
FXUS64 KMRX 310517
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
117 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
SOME BROKEN CLOUDS AT THE 5-6 KFT LEVEL ARE LINGERING NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND EXTEND INTO TYS AND TRI AT THE MOMENT. THIS CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED...BUT IT SHOULD STICK
AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
ALSO CREATE SOME MIXING...SO FOG LOOKS UNLIKELY TONIGHT. TOMORROW
SHOULD BE VFR...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND N WINDS OF 8-12 KTS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS



000
FXUS64 KMRX 310517
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
117 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
SOME BROKEN CLOUDS AT THE 5-6 KFT LEVEL ARE LINGERING NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND EXTEND INTO TYS AND TRI AT THE MOMENT. THIS CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED...BUT IT SHOULD STICK
AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
ALSO CREATE SOME MIXING...SO FOG LOOKS UNLIKELY TONIGHT. TOMORROW
SHOULD BE VFR...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND N WINDS OF 8-12 KTS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMEG 310500
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1200 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

UNDER WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...PREDOMINATELY DRY AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER TO PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THE DRIER AIR...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
FOR COOLER MORNING TEMPS THIS WEEKEND... ACCOMPANIED BY NEAR
NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S. THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

UPPER HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDSOUTH WILL LOWER BY LATE TUESDAY OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT
OF CENTRAL CANADA. THIS SOLUTION IS A BIT OF A DEPARTURE FROM
YESTERDAY/S ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS...WHICH BUILT THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS UPPER RIDGE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SHORTWAVE...ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE
NEXT APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE MIDSOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.

THEREAFTER...GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 7-10 KTS POSSIBLY WITH HIGHER GUSTS BETWEEN 14Z-00Z.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 310439 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1139 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...
SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES ALONG WITH DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
FOR VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 01/06Z WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NLY SFC
WINDS EXPECTED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 644 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION UPDATE...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES ALONG WITH DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
FOR VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 31/24Z. NLY SFC GUSTS UP TO 18 KTS
SHOULD DISSIPATE PER DIMINISHING DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES BY
NO LATER THAN 31/03Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 302 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT-TERM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE NOW BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE MID STATE LAST NIGHT, AND HAS
BROUGHT A REFRESHING BREAK FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WE HAD EXPERIENCED OVER RECENT DAYS.
BY MID-AFTERNOON, SKIES WERE CRYSTAL CLEAR OVER THE MAJORITY OF
OUR FA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED CU OVER EASTERN AREAS
(WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG THE LAGGING DEW POINT FRONT).

BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WE`LL BE LOOKING AT DEW POINTS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 50S, ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AND A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. NOT A BAD WAY TO END THE MONTH OF JULY--WHICH, AS YOU
MAY REMEMBER, STARTED ON A LESS TRANQUIL NOTE WITH SOME UNUSUAL
LATE SEASON TORNADOES.

HUMIDITIES DON`T REALLY RISE MUCH UNTIL NEXT MONDAY, AFTER
SURFACE WINDS FINALLY START TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY.

LONG_TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER HUDSON BAY WILL
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
INTERMITTENT SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL PRODUCE
VARYING AMPLITUDE OF THE ASSOCIATED EASTERN U.S. TROUGH. TIMING
OF SHORTWAVES IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA OF DROPPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST BY NEXT MONDAY. AFTER THAT, MODEL
SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE A BIT. THE BEST MODEL BLEND APPEARS TO
LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF AND PUSHES THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN (AND A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE) TO NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BEFORE
THEN, ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BELIEVE WE COULD STILL BE LOOKING
AT SOME NWLY FLOW TSTMS PROPAGATING OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY/KY AREA INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF OUR FA. HOWEVER,
WILL KEEP POPS RELATIVELY LOW UNTIL EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE MID-
TO-LATE WEEK.

MAINLY A TEMP FORECAST THROUGH NEXT MONDAY, WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP NOT FIGURING IN VERY MUCH UNTIL LATER ON.

ENJOY THOSE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND,
BECAUSE THEY`LL BOUNCE BACK IN THE STICKY 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      67  90  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    65  88  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     63  85  63  85 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       65  90  66  93 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   66  90  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        66  90  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31




000
FXUS64 KOHX 310439 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1139 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...
SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES ALONG WITH DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
FOR VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 01/06Z WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NLY SFC
WINDS EXPECTED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 644 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION UPDATE...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES ALONG WITH DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
FOR VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 31/24Z. NLY SFC GUSTS UP TO 18 KTS
SHOULD DISSIPATE PER DIMINISHING DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES BY
NO LATER THAN 31/03Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 302 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT-TERM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE NOW BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE MID STATE LAST NIGHT, AND HAS
BROUGHT A REFRESHING BREAK FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WE HAD EXPERIENCED OVER RECENT DAYS.
BY MID-AFTERNOON, SKIES WERE CRYSTAL CLEAR OVER THE MAJORITY OF
OUR FA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED CU OVER EASTERN AREAS
(WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG THE LAGGING DEW POINT FRONT).

BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WE`LL BE LOOKING AT DEW POINTS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 50S, ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AND A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. NOT A BAD WAY TO END THE MONTH OF JULY--WHICH, AS YOU
MAY REMEMBER, STARTED ON A LESS TRANQUIL NOTE WITH SOME UNUSUAL
LATE SEASON TORNADOES.

HUMIDITIES DON`T REALLY RISE MUCH UNTIL NEXT MONDAY, AFTER
SURFACE WINDS FINALLY START TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY.

LONG_TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER HUDSON BAY WILL
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
INTERMITTENT SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL PRODUCE
VARYING AMPLITUDE OF THE ASSOCIATED EASTERN U.S. TROUGH. TIMING
OF SHORTWAVES IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA OF DROPPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST BY NEXT MONDAY. AFTER THAT, MODEL
SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE A BIT. THE BEST MODEL BLEND APPEARS TO
LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF AND PUSHES THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN (AND A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE) TO NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BEFORE
THEN, ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BELIEVE WE COULD STILL BE LOOKING
AT SOME NWLY FLOW TSTMS PROPAGATING OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY/KY AREA INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF OUR FA. HOWEVER,
WILL KEEP POPS RELATIVELY LOW UNTIL EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE MID-
TO-LATE WEEK.

MAINLY A TEMP FORECAST THROUGH NEXT MONDAY, WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP NOT FIGURING IN VERY MUCH UNTIL LATER ON.

ENJOY THOSE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND,
BECAUSE THEY`LL BOUNCE BACK IN THE STICKY 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      67  90  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    65  88  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     63  85  63  85 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       65  90  66  93 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   66  90  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        66  90  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31




000
FXUS64 KOHX 310439 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1139 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...
SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES ALONG WITH DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
FOR VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 01/06Z WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NLY SFC
WINDS EXPECTED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 644 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION UPDATE...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES ALONG WITH DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
FOR VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 31/24Z. NLY SFC GUSTS UP TO 18 KTS
SHOULD DISSIPATE PER DIMINISHING DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES BY
NO LATER THAN 31/03Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 302 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT-TERM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE NOW BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE MID STATE LAST NIGHT, AND HAS
BROUGHT A REFRESHING BREAK FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WE HAD EXPERIENCED OVER RECENT DAYS.
BY MID-AFTERNOON, SKIES WERE CRYSTAL CLEAR OVER THE MAJORITY OF
OUR FA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED CU OVER EASTERN AREAS
(WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG THE LAGGING DEW POINT FRONT).

BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WE`LL BE LOOKING AT DEW POINTS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 50S, ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AND A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. NOT A BAD WAY TO END THE MONTH OF JULY--WHICH, AS YOU
MAY REMEMBER, STARTED ON A LESS TRANQUIL NOTE WITH SOME UNUSUAL
LATE SEASON TORNADOES.

HUMIDITIES DON`T REALLY RISE MUCH UNTIL NEXT MONDAY, AFTER
SURFACE WINDS FINALLY START TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY.

LONG_TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER HUDSON BAY WILL
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
INTERMITTENT SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL PRODUCE
VARYING AMPLITUDE OF THE ASSOCIATED EASTERN U.S. TROUGH. TIMING
OF SHORTWAVES IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA OF DROPPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST BY NEXT MONDAY. AFTER THAT, MODEL
SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE A BIT. THE BEST MODEL BLEND APPEARS TO
LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF AND PUSHES THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN (AND A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE) TO NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BEFORE
THEN, ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BELIEVE WE COULD STILL BE LOOKING
AT SOME NWLY FLOW TSTMS PROPAGATING OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY/KY AREA INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF OUR FA. HOWEVER,
WILL KEEP POPS RELATIVELY LOW UNTIL EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE MID-
TO-LATE WEEK.

MAINLY A TEMP FORECAST THROUGH NEXT MONDAY, WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP NOT FIGURING IN VERY MUCH UNTIL LATER ON.

ENJOY THOSE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND,
BECAUSE THEY`LL BOUNCE BACK IN THE STICKY 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      67  90  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    65  88  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     63  85  63  85 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       65  90  66  93 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   66  90  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        66  90  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31




000
FXUS64 KOHX 310439 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1139 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...
SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES ALONG WITH DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
FOR VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 01/06Z WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NLY SFC
WINDS EXPECTED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 644 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION UPDATE...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES ALONG WITH DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
FOR VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 31/24Z. NLY SFC GUSTS UP TO 18 KTS
SHOULD DISSIPATE PER DIMINISHING DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES BY
NO LATER THAN 31/03Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 302 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT-TERM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE NOW BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE MID STATE LAST NIGHT, AND HAS
BROUGHT A REFRESHING BREAK FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WE HAD EXPERIENCED OVER RECENT DAYS.
BY MID-AFTERNOON, SKIES WERE CRYSTAL CLEAR OVER THE MAJORITY OF
OUR FA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED CU OVER EASTERN AREAS
(WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG THE LAGGING DEW POINT FRONT).

BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WE`LL BE LOOKING AT DEW POINTS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 50S, ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AND A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. NOT A BAD WAY TO END THE MONTH OF JULY--WHICH, AS YOU
MAY REMEMBER, STARTED ON A LESS TRANQUIL NOTE WITH SOME UNUSUAL
LATE SEASON TORNADOES.

HUMIDITIES DON`T REALLY RISE MUCH UNTIL NEXT MONDAY, AFTER
SURFACE WINDS FINALLY START TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY.

LONG_TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER HUDSON BAY WILL
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
INTERMITTENT SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL PRODUCE
VARYING AMPLITUDE OF THE ASSOCIATED EASTERN U.S. TROUGH. TIMING
OF SHORTWAVES IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA OF DROPPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST BY NEXT MONDAY. AFTER THAT, MODEL
SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE A BIT. THE BEST MODEL BLEND APPEARS TO
LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF AND PUSHES THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN (AND A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE) TO NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BEFORE
THEN, ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BELIEVE WE COULD STILL BE LOOKING
AT SOME NWLY FLOW TSTMS PROPAGATING OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY/KY AREA INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF OUR FA. HOWEVER,
WILL KEEP POPS RELATIVELY LOW UNTIL EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE MID-
TO-LATE WEEK.

MAINLY A TEMP FORECAST THROUGH NEXT MONDAY, WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP NOT FIGURING IN VERY MUCH UNTIL LATER ON.

ENJOY THOSE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND,
BECAUSE THEY`LL BOUNCE BACK IN THE STICKY 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      67  90  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    65  88  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     63  85  63  85 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       65  90  66  93 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   66  90  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        66  90  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31




000
FXUS64 KMRX 310117
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
917 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWS AREA IS CONVECTION FREE SO WILL UPDATE
TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THAT WERE IN FAR SOUTHEAST. WILL ALSO
TWEAK HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW POINTS AS WELL AS SKY...BUT OVERALL
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE FOR REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             70  91  67  92 /  10  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  66  88  65  88 /  10  10   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       66  88  66  88 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              62  87  62  85 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 310117
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
917 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWS AREA IS CONVECTION FREE SO WILL UPDATE
TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THAT WERE IN FAR SOUTHEAST. WILL ALSO
TWEAK HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW POINTS AS WELL AS SKY...BUT OVERALL
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE FOR REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             70  91  67  92 /  10  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  66  88  65  88 /  10  10   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       66  88  66  88 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              62  87  62  85 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 310117
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
917 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWS AREA IS CONVECTION FREE SO WILL UPDATE
TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THAT WERE IN FAR SOUTHEAST. WILL ALSO
TWEAK HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW POINTS AS WELL AS SKY...BUT OVERALL
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE FOR REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             70  91  67  92 /  10  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  66  88  65  88 /  10  10   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       66  88  66  88 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              62  87  62  85 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 310117
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
917 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWS AREA IS CONVECTION FREE SO WILL UPDATE
TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THAT WERE IN FAR SOUTHEAST. WILL ALSO
TWEAK HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW POINTS AS WELL AS SKY...BUT OVERALL
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE FOR REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             70  91  67  92 /  10  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  66  88  65  88 /  10  10   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       66  88  66  88 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              62  87  62  85 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOHX 302344 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
644 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES ALONG WITH DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
FOR VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 31/24Z. NLY SFC GUSTS UP TO 18 KTS
SHOULD DISSIPATE PER DIMINISHING DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES BY
NO LATER THAN 31/03Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 302 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT-TERM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE NOW BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE MID STATE LAST NIGHT, AND HAS
BROUGHT A REFRESHING BREAK FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WE HAD EXPERIENCED OVER RECENT DAYS.
BY MID-AFTERNOON, SKIES WERE CRYSTAL CLEAR OVER THE MAJORITY OF
OUR FA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED CU OVER EASTERN AREAS
(WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG THE LAGGING DEW POINT FRONT).

BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WE`LL BE LOOKING AT DEW POINTS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 50S, ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AND A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. NOT A BAD WAY TO END THE MONTH OF JULY--WHICH, AS YOU
MAY REMEMBER, STARTED ON A LESS TRANQUIL NOTE WITH SOME UNUSUAL
LATE SEASON TORNADOES.

HUMIDITIES DON`T REALLY RISE MUCH UNTIL NEXT MONDAY, AFTER
SURFACE WINDS FINALLY START TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY.

LONG_TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER HUDSON BAY WILL
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
INTERMITTENT SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL PRODUCE
VARYING AMPLITUDE OF THE ASSOCIATED EASTERN U.S. TROUGH. TIMING
OF SHORTWAVES IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA OF DROPPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST BY NEXT MONDAY. AFTER THAT, MODEL
SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE A BIT. THE BEST MODEL BLEND APPEARS TO
LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF AND PUSHES THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN (AND A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE) TO NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BEFORE
THEN, ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BELIEVE WE COULD STILL BE LOOKING
AT SOME NWLY FLOW TSTMS PROPAGATING OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY/KY AREA INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF OUR FA. HOWEVER,
WILL KEEP POPS RELATIVELY LOW UNTIL EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE MID-
TO-LATE WEEK.

MAINLY A TEMP FORECAST THROUGH NEXT MONDAY, WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP NOT FIGURING IN VERY MUCH UNTIL LATER ON.

ENJOY THOSE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND,
BECAUSE THEY`LL BOUNCE BACK IN THE STICKY 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      67  90  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    65  88  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     63  85  63  85 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       66  90  66  93 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   67  90  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        66  90  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31




000
FXUS64 KOHX 302344 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
644 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES ALONG WITH DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
FOR VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 31/24Z. NLY SFC GUSTS UP TO 18 KTS
SHOULD DISSIPATE PER DIMINISHING DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES BY
NO LATER THAN 31/03Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 302 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT-TERM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE NOW BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE MID STATE LAST NIGHT, AND HAS
BROUGHT A REFRESHING BREAK FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WE HAD EXPERIENCED OVER RECENT DAYS.
BY MID-AFTERNOON, SKIES WERE CRYSTAL CLEAR OVER THE MAJORITY OF
OUR FA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED CU OVER EASTERN AREAS
(WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG THE LAGGING DEW POINT FRONT).

BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WE`LL BE LOOKING AT DEW POINTS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 50S, ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AND A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. NOT A BAD WAY TO END THE MONTH OF JULY--WHICH, AS YOU
MAY REMEMBER, STARTED ON A LESS TRANQUIL NOTE WITH SOME UNUSUAL
LATE SEASON TORNADOES.

HUMIDITIES DON`T REALLY RISE MUCH UNTIL NEXT MONDAY, AFTER
SURFACE WINDS FINALLY START TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY.

LONG_TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER HUDSON BAY WILL
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
INTERMITTENT SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL PRODUCE
VARYING AMPLITUDE OF THE ASSOCIATED EASTERN U.S. TROUGH. TIMING
OF SHORTWAVES IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA OF DROPPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST BY NEXT MONDAY. AFTER THAT, MODEL
SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE A BIT. THE BEST MODEL BLEND APPEARS TO
LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF AND PUSHES THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN (AND A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE) TO NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BEFORE
THEN, ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BELIEVE WE COULD STILL BE LOOKING
AT SOME NWLY FLOW TSTMS PROPAGATING OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY/KY AREA INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF OUR FA. HOWEVER,
WILL KEEP POPS RELATIVELY LOW UNTIL EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE MID-
TO-LATE WEEK.

MAINLY A TEMP FORECAST THROUGH NEXT MONDAY, WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP NOT FIGURING IN VERY MUCH UNTIL LATER ON.

ENJOY THOSE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND,
BECAUSE THEY`LL BOUNCE BACK IN THE STICKY 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      67  90  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    65  88  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     63  85  63  85 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       66  90  66  93 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   67  90  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        66  90  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31



000
FXUS64 KMEG 302342
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
642 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

UNDER WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...PREDOMINATELY DRY AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER TO PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THE DRIER AIR...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
FOR COOLER MORNING TEMPS THIS WEEKEND... ACCOMPANIED BY NEAR
NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S. THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

UPPER HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDSOUTH WILL LOWER BY LATE TUESDAY OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT
OF CENTRAL CANADA. THIS SOLUTION IS A BIT OF A DEPARTURE FROM
YESTERDAY/S ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS...WHICH BUILT THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS UPPER RIDGE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SHORTWAVE...ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE
NEXT APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE MIDSOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.

THEREAFTER...GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
BETWEEN 7-10 KTS AFTER 14-15Z.

KRM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 302342
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
642 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

UNDER WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...PREDOMINATELY DRY AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER TO PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THE DRIER AIR...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
FOR COOLER MORNING TEMPS THIS WEEKEND... ACCOMPANIED BY NEAR
NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S. THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

UPPER HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDSOUTH WILL LOWER BY LATE TUESDAY OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT
OF CENTRAL CANADA. THIS SOLUTION IS A BIT OF A DEPARTURE FROM
YESTERDAY/S ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS...WHICH BUILT THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS UPPER RIDGE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SHORTWAVE...ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE
NEXT APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE MIDSOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.

THEREAFTER...GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
BETWEEN 7-10 KTS AFTER 14-15Z.

KRM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 302331
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
731 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...DRIER AIR PUSHING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ONLY CONCERN IS POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY AT TRI.
WILL INCLUDE MVFR VIS THERE FOR A FEW HOURS LATER TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 302331
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
731 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...DRIER AIR PUSHING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ONLY CONCERN IS POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY AT TRI.
WILL INCLUDE MVFR VIS THERE FOR A FEW HOURS LATER TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 302331
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
731 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...DRIER AIR PUSHING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ONLY CONCERN IS POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY AT TRI.
WILL INCLUDE MVFR VIS THERE FOR A FEW HOURS LATER TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 302331
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
731 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...DRIER AIR PUSHING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ONLY CONCERN IS POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY AT TRI.
WILL INCLUDE MVFR VIS THERE FOR A FEW HOURS LATER TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 302331
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
731 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...DRIER AIR PUSHING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ONLY CONCERN IS POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY AT TRI.
WILL INCLUDE MVFR VIS THERE FOR A FEW HOURS LATER TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 302331
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
731 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...DRIER AIR PUSHING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ONLY CONCERN IS POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY AT TRI.
WILL INCLUDE MVFR VIS THERE FOR A FEW HOURS LATER TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 302025
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
325 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UNDER WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...PREDOMINATELY DRY AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER TO PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THE DRIER AIR...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
FOR COOLER MORNING TEMPS THIS WEEKEND... ACCOMPANIED BY NEAR
NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S. THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

UPPER HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDSOUTH WILL LOWER BY LATE TUESDAY OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT
OF CENTRAL CANADA. THIS SOLUTION IS A BIT OF A DEPARTURE FROM
YESTERDAY/S ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS...WHICH BUILT THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS UPPER RIDGE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SHORTWAVE...ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE
NEXT APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE MIDSOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.

THEREAFTER...GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE (30/18Z-31/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TODAY NE 10-13
KTS WITH GUSTS 18-20 KTS. WINDS TONIGHT NE 3-7 KTS. WINDS FRIDAY
MORNING BECOMING NE 6-10 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 302025
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
325 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UNDER WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...PREDOMINATELY DRY AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER TO PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THE DRIER AIR...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
FOR COOLER MORNING TEMPS THIS WEEKEND... ACCOMPANIED BY NEAR
NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S. THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

UPPER HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDSOUTH WILL LOWER BY LATE TUESDAY OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT
OF CENTRAL CANADA. THIS SOLUTION IS A BIT OF A DEPARTURE FROM
YESTERDAY/S ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS...WHICH BUILT THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS UPPER RIDGE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SHORTWAVE...ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE
NEXT APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE MIDSOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.

THEREAFTER...GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE (30/18Z-31/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TODAY NE 10-13
KTS WITH GUSTS 18-20 KTS. WINDS TONIGHT NE 3-7 KTS. WINDS FRIDAY
MORNING BECOMING NE 6-10 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 302002
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
302 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT-TERM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE NOW BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE MID STATE LAST NIGHT, AND HAS
BROUGHT A REFRESHING BREAK FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WE HAD EXPERIENCED OVER RECENT DAYS.
BY MID-AFTERNOON, SKIES WERE CRYSTAL CLEAR OVER THE MAJORITY OF
OUR FA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED CU OVER EASTERN AREAS
(WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG THE LAGGING DEW POINT FRONT).

BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WE`LL BE LOOKING AT DEW POINTS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 50S, ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AND A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. NOT A BAD WAY TO END THE MONTH OF JULY--WHICH, AS YOU
MAY REMEMBER, STARTED ON A LESS TRANQUIL NOTE WITH SOME UNUSUAL
LATE SEASON TORNADOES.

HUMIDITIES DON`T REALLY RISE MUCH UNTIL NEXT MONDAY, AFTER
SURFACE WINDS FINALLY START TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY.

.LONG_TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER HUDSON BAY WILL
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
INTERMITTENT SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL PRODUCE
VARYING AMPLITUDE OF THE ASSOCIATED EASTERN U.S. TROUGH. TIMING
OF SHORTWAVES IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA OF DROPPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST BY NEXT MONDAY. AFTER THAT, MODEL
SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE A BIT. THE BEST MODEL BLEND APPEARS TO
LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF AND PUSHES THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN (AND A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE) TO NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BEFORE
THEN, ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BELIEVE WE COULD STILL BE LOOKING
AT SOME NWLY FLOW TSTMS PROPAGATING OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY/KY AREA INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF OUR FA. HOWEVER,
WILL KEEP POPS RELATIVELY LOW UNTIL EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE MID-
TO-LATE WEEK.

MAINLY A TEMP FORECAST THROUGH NEXT MONDAY, WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP NOT FIGURING IN VERY MUCH UNTIL LATER ON.

ENJOY THOSE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND,
BECAUSE THEY`LL BOUNCE BACK IN THE STICKY 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      67  90  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    65  88  67  89 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     63  85  64  85 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       66  90  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   67  90  67  92 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        66  90  68  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KOHX 302002
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
302 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT-TERM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE NOW BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE MID STATE LAST NIGHT, AND HAS
BROUGHT A REFRESHING BREAK FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WE HAD EXPERIENCED OVER RECENT DAYS.
BY MID-AFTERNOON, SKIES WERE CRYSTAL CLEAR OVER THE MAJORITY OF
OUR FA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED CU OVER EASTERN AREAS
(WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG THE LAGGING DEW POINT FRONT).

BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WE`LL BE LOOKING AT DEW POINTS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 50S, ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AND A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. NOT A BAD WAY TO END THE MONTH OF JULY--WHICH, AS YOU
MAY REMEMBER, STARTED ON A LESS TRANQUIL NOTE WITH SOME UNUSUAL
LATE SEASON TORNADOES.

HUMIDITIES DON`T REALLY RISE MUCH UNTIL NEXT MONDAY, AFTER
SURFACE WINDS FINALLY START TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY.

.LONG_TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER HUDSON BAY WILL
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
INTERMITTENT SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL PRODUCE
VARYING AMPLITUDE OF THE ASSOCIATED EASTERN U.S. TROUGH. TIMING
OF SHORTWAVES IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA OF DROPPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST BY NEXT MONDAY. AFTER THAT, MODEL
SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE A BIT. THE BEST MODEL BLEND APPEARS TO
LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF AND PUSHES THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN (AND A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE) TO NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BEFORE
THEN, ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BELIEVE WE COULD STILL BE LOOKING
AT SOME NWLY FLOW TSTMS PROPAGATING OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY/KY AREA INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF OUR FA. HOWEVER,
WILL KEEP POPS RELATIVELY LOW UNTIL EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE MID-
TO-LATE WEEK.

MAINLY A TEMP FORECAST THROUGH NEXT MONDAY, WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP NOT FIGURING IN VERY MUCH UNTIL LATER ON.

ENJOY THOSE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND,
BECAUSE THEY`LL BOUNCE BACK IN THE STICKY 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      67  90  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    65  88  67  89 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     63  85  64  85 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       66  90  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   67  90  67  92 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        66  90  68  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KOHX 302002
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
302 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT-TERM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE NOW BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE MID STATE LAST NIGHT, AND HAS
BROUGHT A REFRESHING BREAK FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WE HAD EXPERIENCED OVER RECENT DAYS.
BY MID-AFTERNOON, SKIES WERE CRYSTAL CLEAR OVER THE MAJORITY OF
OUR FA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED CU OVER EASTERN AREAS
(WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG THE LAGGING DEW POINT FRONT).

BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WE`LL BE LOOKING AT DEW POINTS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 50S, ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AND A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. NOT A BAD WAY TO END THE MONTH OF JULY--WHICH, AS YOU
MAY REMEMBER, STARTED ON A LESS TRANQUIL NOTE WITH SOME UNUSUAL
LATE SEASON TORNADOES.

HUMIDITIES DON`T REALLY RISE MUCH UNTIL NEXT MONDAY, AFTER
SURFACE WINDS FINALLY START TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY.

.LONG_TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER HUDSON BAY WILL
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
INTERMITTENT SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL PRODUCE
VARYING AMPLITUDE OF THE ASSOCIATED EASTERN U.S. TROUGH. TIMING
OF SHORTWAVES IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA OF DROPPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST BY NEXT MONDAY. AFTER THAT, MODEL
SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE A BIT. THE BEST MODEL BLEND APPEARS TO
LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF AND PUSHES THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN (AND A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE) TO NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BEFORE
THEN, ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BELIEVE WE COULD STILL BE LOOKING
AT SOME NWLY FLOW TSTMS PROPAGATING OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY/KY AREA INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF OUR FA. HOWEVER,
WILL KEEP POPS RELATIVELY LOW UNTIL EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE MID-
TO-LATE WEEK.

MAINLY A TEMP FORECAST THROUGH NEXT MONDAY, WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP NOT FIGURING IN VERY MUCH UNTIL LATER ON.

ENJOY THOSE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND,
BECAUSE THEY`LL BOUNCE BACK IN THE STICKY 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      67  90  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    65  88  67  89 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     63  85  64  85 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       66  90  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   67  90  67  92 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        66  90  68  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KOHX 302002
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
302 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT-TERM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE NOW BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE MID STATE LAST NIGHT, AND HAS
BROUGHT A REFRESHING BREAK FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WE HAD EXPERIENCED OVER RECENT DAYS.
BY MID-AFTERNOON, SKIES WERE CRYSTAL CLEAR OVER THE MAJORITY OF
OUR FA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED CU OVER EASTERN AREAS
(WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG THE LAGGING DEW POINT FRONT).

BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WE`LL BE LOOKING AT DEW POINTS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 50S, ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AND A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. NOT A BAD WAY TO END THE MONTH OF JULY--WHICH, AS YOU
MAY REMEMBER, STARTED ON A LESS TRANQUIL NOTE WITH SOME UNUSUAL
LATE SEASON TORNADOES.

HUMIDITIES DON`T REALLY RISE MUCH UNTIL NEXT MONDAY, AFTER
SURFACE WINDS FINALLY START TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY.

.LONG_TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER HUDSON BAY WILL
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
INTERMITTENT SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL PRODUCE
VARYING AMPLITUDE OF THE ASSOCIATED EASTERN U.S. TROUGH. TIMING
OF SHORTWAVES IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA OF DROPPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST BY NEXT MONDAY. AFTER THAT, MODEL
SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE A BIT. THE BEST MODEL BLEND APPEARS TO
LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF AND PUSHES THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN (AND A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE) TO NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BEFORE
THEN, ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BELIEVE WE COULD STILL BE LOOKING
AT SOME NWLY FLOW TSTMS PROPAGATING OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY/KY AREA INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF OUR FA. HOWEVER,
WILL KEEP POPS RELATIVELY LOW UNTIL EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE MID-
TO-LATE WEEK.

MAINLY A TEMP FORECAST THROUGH NEXT MONDAY, WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP NOT FIGURING IN VERY MUCH UNTIL LATER ON.

ENJOY THOSE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND,
BECAUSE THEY`LL BOUNCE BACK IN THE STICKY 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      67  90  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    65  88  67  89 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     63  85  64  85 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       66  90  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   67  90  67  92 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        66  90  68  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KMRX 301855
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
255 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND
IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLATEAU INTO NORTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE BASED ON THE SUBTLE DEWPOINT GRADIENT SEEN IN THE
SURFACE OBS. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE COMMON BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCT CU
FIELDS HAVE DEVELOPED...BUT AS OF YET THE RADAR REMAINS SILENT.
STILL THINK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH. OVERALL THOUGH...THINK
CONDITIONS WILL STAY DRY AND REMAIN QUITE WARM/HUMID IN MOST AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. BY THE EVENING...THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND BRINGS IN
A DRIER AIR MASS. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND FEEL MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE TONIGHT FOR THE BLUE MOON WITH THE LOWER RH VALUES.
UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES TOMORROW...BUT WITH MUCH LOWER RH VALUES!

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING
INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MINIMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON THOUGH
CHANCE ARE SLIGHT AND COVERAGE WOULD BE LIMITED. MODEL CONFIDENCE
DECREASE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT THE TREND IS TOWARDS
TRANSITING INTO A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE PATTERN FOR 20 TO 30 POPS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             70  91  67  92 /  10  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  66  88  65  88 /  10  10   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       66  88  66  88 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              62  87  62  85 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP/MJB



000
FXUS64 KMRX 301855
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
255 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND
IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLATEAU INTO NORTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE BASED ON THE SUBTLE DEWPOINT GRADIENT SEEN IN THE
SURFACE OBS. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE COMMON BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCT CU
FIELDS HAVE DEVELOPED...BUT AS OF YET THE RADAR REMAINS SILENT.
STILL THINK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH. OVERALL THOUGH...THINK
CONDITIONS WILL STAY DRY AND REMAIN QUITE WARM/HUMID IN MOST AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. BY THE EVENING...THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND BRINGS IN
A DRIER AIR MASS. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND FEEL MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE TONIGHT FOR THE BLUE MOON WITH THE LOWER RH VALUES.
UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES TOMORROW...BUT WITH MUCH LOWER RH VALUES!

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING
INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MINIMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON THOUGH
CHANCE ARE SLIGHT AND COVERAGE WOULD BE LIMITED. MODEL CONFIDENCE
DECREASE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT THE TREND IS TOWARDS
TRANSITING INTO A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE PATTERN FOR 20 TO 30 POPS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             70  91  67  92 /  10  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  66  88  65  88 /  10  10   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       66  88  66  88 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              62  87  62  85 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP/MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 301741 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
141 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN...RESULTING
IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP



000
FXUS64 KMEG 301741 AAB
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1241 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 334 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THE STORY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS MANY ENJOY A BREAK FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT...

CURRENTLY ALOFT...500 MB RIDGING WAS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN US WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. HEIGHTS WERE RISING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH.

FOR THURSDAY...A MUCH MORE PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED WITH UPSTREAM
OBS SHOWING DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA...INCREASING
INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S ACROSS MISSOURI. THIS AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL FEEL
EXCEPTIONAL AFTER EXPERIENCING SEVERAL DAYS OF DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
WITH THE WARMEST READINGS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. GIVEN
THE DRY NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...LOWS WERE DECREASED SLIGHTLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MID AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP BUT
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR MOISTURE TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE
REGION. EVEN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS
WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES VERY MUCH IN CHECK. THIS PERIOD IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE DRY SO A VERY NICE WEEKEND IS IN THE OFFING.

IN THE LONG TERM...A BLOCKING-TYPE PATTERN DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER
LEVELS WITH A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH FEATURE TAKING HOLD BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SOLUTION IS AGREED UPON BY BOTH THE EURO AND
GFS...AND SIMILARLY IN GEFS GUIDANCE. IF THIS HOLDS TRUE...WARMER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PERIODIC TSTORM CHANCES AS
SHORTWAVES DIVE SOUTHEAST AROUND THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (30/18Z-31/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TODAY NE 10-13
KTS WITH GUSTS 18-20 KTS. WINDS TONIGHT NE 3-7 KTS. WINDS FRIDAY
MORNING BECOMING NE 6-10 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 301741 AAB
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1241 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 334 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THE STORY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS MANY ENJOY A BREAK FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT...

CURRENTLY ALOFT...500 MB RIDGING WAS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN US WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. HEIGHTS WERE RISING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH.

FOR THURSDAY...A MUCH MORE PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED WITH UPSTREAM
OBS SHOWING DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA...INCREASING
INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S ACROSS MISSOURI. THIS AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL FEEL
EXCEPTIONAL AFTER EXPERIENCING SEVERAL DAYS OF DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
WITH THE WARMEST READINGS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. GIVEN
THE DRY NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...LOWS WERE DECREASED SLIGHTLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MID AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP BUT
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR MOISTURE TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE
REGION. EVEN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS
WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES VERY MUCH IN CHECK. THIS PERIOD IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE DRY SO A VERY NICE WEEKEND IS IN THE OFFING.

IN THE LONG TERM...A BLOCKING-TYPE PATTERN DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER
LEVELS WITH A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH FEATURE TAKING HOLD BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SOLUTION IS AGREED UPON BY BOTH THE EURO AND
GFS...AND SIMILARLY IN GEFS GUIDANCE. IF THIS HOLDS TRUE...WARMER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PERIODIC TSTORM CHANCES AS
SHORTWAVES DIVE SOUTHEAST AROUND THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (30/18Z-31/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TODAY NE 10-13
KTS WITH GUSTS 18-20 KTS. WINDS TONIGHT NE 3-7 KTS. WINDS FRIDAY
MORNING BECOMING NE 6-10 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 301741 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
141 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN...RESULTING
IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP



000
FXUS64 KMRX 301741 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
141 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN...RESULTING
IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KOHX 301708
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1208 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...18Z TAF`S...BNA/CKV/CSV...HIGH PRESSURE NOW
BUILDING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH A DECENT NORTHEAST BREEZE AND
FALLING DEW POINTS. PESKY MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN AND OUT OF
CSV, BUT NOT FOR MUCH LONGER. A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS MEANS NO FOG
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, SO LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT HAS SOME LOW
CLOUDS JUST BEHIND IT...BRINGING SOME MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD ERODE AWAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AROUND MID MORNING. WINDS
SHOULD ALSO PICK UP MID MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A VERY WELCOMED CHANGE IS IN STORE LATER TODAY FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE
IN THE FORM OF DRIER AIR AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.  IN
FACT...THESE CHANGES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
HELPED TO SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
LAST EVENING HAS WORKED ITS WAY ALMOST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE
STATE ALREADY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GOING TO HANG ON FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS HOWEVER...BUT THE DRY AIR ISN`T FAR AWAY. AS THAT DRY
AIR FILTERS IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND HELP TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S TO AROUND 90...BUT DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S BY MID-AFTERNOON WILL MAKE FOR MUCH MORE BREATHABLE
AIR. HECK...YOU MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO TURN OFF THE A/C AND OPEN UP
THE WINDOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT!

WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY...THE
DRIER AIR WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAKING FOR A GREAT
WEEKEND AHEAD.

A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NO
RETURN WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH OF TN AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. WHILE A VERY WEAK FRONT MIGHT
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...THERE
ISN`T REALLY ANY DISCERNIBLE QPF ASSOCIATED WITH IT. OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN MAY NOT COME UNTIL END OF NEXT
WEEK.

UNGER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      67  90  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    66  88  67  89 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     63  85  64  85 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       66  90  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   67  89  67  90 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        68  89  68  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08




000
FXUS64 KOHX 301708
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1208 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...18Z TAF`S...BNA/CKV/CSV...HIGH PRESSURE NOW
BUILDING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH A DECENT NORTHEAST BREEZE AND
FALLING DEW POINTS. PESKY MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN AND OUT OF
CSV, BUT NOT FOR MUCH LONGER. A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS MEANS NO FOG
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, SO LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT HAS SOME LOW
CLOUDS JUST BEHIND IT...BRINGING SOME MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD ERODE AWAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AROUND MID MORNING. WINDS
SHOULD ALSO PICK UP MID MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A VERY WELCOMED CHANGE IS IN STORE LATER TODAY FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE
IN THE FORM OF DRIER AIR AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.  IN
FACT...THESE CHANGES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
HELPED TO SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
LAST EVENING HAS WORKED ITS WAY ALMOST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE
STATE ALREADY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GOING TO HANG ON FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS HOWEVER...BUT THE DRY AIR ISN`T FAR AWAY. AS THAT DRY
AIR FILTERS IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND HELP TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S TO AROUND 90...BUT DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S BY MID-AFTERNOON WILL MAKE FOR MUCH MORE BREATHABLE
AIR. HECK...YOU MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO TURN OFF THE A/C AND OPEN UP
THE WINDOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT!

WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY...THE
DRIER AIR WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAKING FOR A GREAT
WEEKEND AHEAD.

A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NO
RETURN WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH OF TN AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. WHILE A VERY WEAK FRONT MIGHT
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...THERE
ISN`T REALLY ANY DISCERNIBLE QPF ASSOCIATED WITH IT. OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN MAY NOT COME UNTIL END OF NEXT
WEEK.

UNGER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      67  90  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    66  88  67  89 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     63  85  64  85 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       66  90  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   67  89  67  90 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        68  89  68  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08




000
FXUS64 KOHX 301708
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1208 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...18Z TAF`S...BNA/CKV/CSV...HIGH PRESSURE NOW
BUILDING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH A DECENT NORTHEAST BREEZE AND
FALLING DEW POINTS. PESKY MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN AND OUT OF
CSV, BUT NOT FOR MUCH LONGER. A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS MEANS NO FOG
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, SO LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT HAS SOME LOW
CLOUDS JUST BEHIND IT...BRINGING SOME MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD ERODE AWAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AROUND MID MORNING. WINDS
SHOULD ALSO PICK UP MID MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A VERY WELCOMED CHANGE IS IN STORE LATER TODAY FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE
IN THE FORM OF DRIER AIR AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.  IN
FACT...THESE CHANGES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
HELPED TO SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
LAST EVENING HAS WORKED ITS WAY ALMOST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE
STATE ALREADY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GOING TO HANG ON FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS HOWEVER...BUT THE DRY AIR ISN`T FAR AWAY. AS THAT DRY
AIR FILTERS IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND HELP TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S TO AROUND 90...BUT DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S BY MID-AFTERNOON WILL MAKE FOR MUCH MORE BREATHABLE
AIR. HECK...YOU MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO TURN OFF THE A/C AND OPEN UP
THE WINDOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT!

WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY...THE
DRIER AIR WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAKING FOR A GREAT
WEEKEND AHEAD.

A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NO
RETURN WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH OF TN AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. WHILE A VERY WEAK FRONT MIGHT
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...THERE
ISN`T REALLY ANY DISCERNIBLE QPF ASSOCIATED WITH IT. OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN MAY NOT COME UNTIL END OF NEXT
WEEK.

UNGER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      67  90  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    66  88  67  89 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     63  85  64  85 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       66  90  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   67  89  67  90 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        68  89  68  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08




000
FXUS64 KOHX 301708
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1208 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...18Z TAF`S...BNA/CKV/CSV...HIGH PRESSURE NOW
BUILDING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH A DECENT NORTHEAST BREEZE AND
FALLING DEW POINTS. PESKY MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN AND OUT OF
CSV, BUT NOT FOR MUCH LONGER. A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS MEANS NO FOG
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, SO LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT HAS SOME LOW
CLOUDS JUST BEHIND IT...BRINGING SOME MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD ERODE AWAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AROUND MID MORNING. WINDS
SHOULD ALSO PICK UP MID MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A VERY WELCOMED CHANGE IS IN STORE LATER TODAY FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE
IN THE FORM OF DRIER AIR AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.  IN
FACT...THESE CHANGES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
HELPED TO SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
LAST EVENING HAS WORKED ITS WAY ALMOST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE
STATE ALREADY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GOING TO HANG ON FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS HOWEVER...BUT THE DRY AIR ISN`T FAR AWAY. AS THAT DRY
AIR FILTERS IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND HELP TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S TO AROUND 90...BUT DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S BY MID-AFTERNOON WILL MAKE FOR MUCH MORE BREATHABLE
AIR. HECK...YOU MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO TURN OFF THE A/C AND OPEN UP
THE WINDOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT!

WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY...THE
DRIER AIR WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAKING FOR A GREAT
WEEKEND AHEAD.

A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NO
RETURN WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH OF TN AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. WHILE A VERY WEAK FRONT MIGHT
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...THERE
ISN`T REALLY ANY DISCERNIBLE QPF ASSOCIATED WITH IT. OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN MAY NOT COME UNTIL END OF NEXT
WEEK.

UNGER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      67  90  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    66  88  67  89 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     63  85  64  85 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       66  90  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   67  89  67  90 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        68  89  68  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08




000
FXUS64 KMRX 301415 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1015 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS SOUTH INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE
TO TREND DRIER ON ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...SO HAVE TEMPERED THEM BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE TODAY /WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES FAVORING THE EAST TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS/. STILL...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORM IS
POSSIBLE GIVEN SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THE FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND THE ADVANCING FRONT WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK BY A COUPLE DEGREES...BUT IT WILL STILL FEEL
VERY WARM AND MUGGY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
AGAIN...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 95 TO 100 DEGREES IN MOST
PLACES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             93  69  92  67 /  30  10  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  90  65  88  65 /  30  10  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       90  65  89  64 /  30   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              87  62  86  59 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP



000
FXUS64 KMRX 301415 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1015 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS SOUTH INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE
TO TREND DRIER ON ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...SO HAVE TEMPERED THEM BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE TODAY /WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES FAVORING THE EAST TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS/. STILL...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORM IS
POSSIBLE GIVEN SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THE FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND THE ADVANCING FRONT WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK BY A COUPLE DEGREES...BUT IT WILL STILL FEEL
VERY WARM AND MUGGY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
AGAIN...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 95 TO 100 DEGREES IN MOST
PLACES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             93  69  92  67 /  30  10  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  90  65  88  65 /  30  10  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       90  65  89  64 /  30   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              87  62  86  59 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMEG 301213
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
713 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THE STORY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS MANY ENJOY A BREAK FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT...

CURRENTLY ALOFT...500 MB RIDGING WAS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN US WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. HEIGHTS WERE RISING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH.

FOR THURSDAY...A MUCH MORE PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED WITH UPSTREAM
OBS SHOWING DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA...INCREASING
INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S ACROSS MISSOURI. THIS AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL FEEL
EXCEPTIONAL AFTER EXPERIENCING SEVERAL DAYS OF DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
WITH THE WARMEST READINGS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. GIVEN
THE DRY NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...LOWS WERE DECREASED SLIGHTLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MID AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP BUT
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR MOISTURE TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE
REGION. EVEN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS
WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES VERY MUCH IN CHECK. THIS PERIOD IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE DRY SO A VERY NICE WEEKEND IS IN THE OFFING.

IN THE LONG TERM...A BLOCKING-TYPE PATTERN DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER
LEVELS WITH A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH FEATURE TAKING HOLD BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SOLUTION IS AGREED UPON BY BOTH THE EURO AND
GFS...AND SIMILARLY IN GEFS GUIDANCE. IF THIS HOLDS TRUE...WARMER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PERIODIC TSTORM CHANCES AS
SHORTWAVES DIVE SOUTHEAST AROUND THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP INTO KTUP FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND MAY BECOME GUSTY AT
TIMES FROM THE NORTHEAST BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 301131
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
631 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT HAS SOME LOW
CLOUDS JUST BEHIND IT...BRINGING SOME MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD ERODE AWAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AROUND MID MORNING. WINDS
SHOULD ALSO PICK UP MID MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A VERY WELCOMED CHANGE IS IN STORE LATER TODAY FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE
IN THE FORM OF DRIER AIR AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.  IN
FACT...THESE CHANGES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
HELPED TO SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
LAST EVENING HAS WORKED ITS WAY ALMOST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE
STATE ALREADY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GOING TO HANG ON FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS HOWEVER...BUT THE DRY AIR ISN`T FAR AWAY. AS THAT DRY
AIR FILTERS IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND HELP TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S TO AROUND 90...BUT DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S BY MID-AFTERNOON WILL MAKE FOR MUCH MORE BREATHABLE
AIR. HECK...YOU MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO TURN OFF THE A/C AND OPEN UP
THE WINDOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT!

WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY...THE
DRIER AIR WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAKING FOR A GREAT
WEEKEND AHEAD.

A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NO
RETURN WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH OF TN AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. WHILE A VERY WEAK FRONT MIGHT
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...THERE
ISN`T REALLY ANY DISCERNIBLE QPF ASSOCIATED WITH IT. OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN MAY NOT COME UNTIL END OF NEXT
WEEK.

UNGER

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      90  67  90  68 /  10   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    87  66  88  67 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     87  63  85  64 /  10   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       90  66  90  66 /  10   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   90  67  89  67 /  20   0   0   0
WAVERLY        88  68  89  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KOHX 301131
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
631 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT HAS SOME LOW
CLOUDS JUST BEHIND IT...BRINGING SOME MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD ERODE AWAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AROUND MID MORNING. WINDS
SHOULD ALSO PICK UP MID MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A VERY WELCOMED CHANGE IS IN STORE LATER TODAY FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE
IN THE FORM OF DRIER AIR AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.  IN
FACT...THESE CHANGES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
HELPED TO SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
LAST EVENING HAS WORKED ITS WAY ALMOST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE
STATE ALREADY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GOING TO HANG ON FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS HOWEVER...BUT THE DRY AIR ISN`T FAR AWAY. AS THAT DRY
AIR FILTERS IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND HELP TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S TO AROUND 90...BUT DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S BY MID-AFTERNOON WILL MAKE FOR MUCH MORE BREATHABLE
AIR. HECK...YOU MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO TURN OFF THE A/C AND OPEN UP
THE WINDOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT!

WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY...THE
DRIER AIR WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAKING FOR A GREAT
WEEKEND AHEAD.

A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NO
RETURN WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH OF TN AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. WHILE A VERY WEAK FRONT MIGHT
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...THERE
ISN`T REALLY ANY DISCERNIBLE QPF ASSOCIATED WITH IT. OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN MAY NOT COME UNTIL END OF NEXT
WEEK.

UNGER

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      90  67  90  68 /  10   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    87  66  88  67 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     87  63  85  64 /  10   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       90  66  90  66 /  10   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   90  67  89  67 /  20   0   0   0
WAVERLY        88  68  89  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KOHX 301131
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
631 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT HAS SOME LOW
CLOUDS JUST BEHIND IT...BRINGING SOME MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD ERODE AWAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AROUND MID MORNING. WINDS
SHOULD ALSO PICK UP MID MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A VERY WELCOMED CHANGE IS IN STORE LATER TODAY FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE
IN THE FORM OF DRIER AIR AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.  IN
FACT...THESE CHANGES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
HELPED TO SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
LAST EVENING HAS WORKED ITS WAY ALMOST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE
STATE ALREADY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GOING TO HANG ON FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS HOWEVER...BUT THE DRY AIR ISN`T FAR AWAY. AS THAT DRY
AIR FILTERS IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND HELP TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S TO AROUND 90...BUT DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S BY MID-AFTERNOON WILL MAKE FOR MUCH MORE BREATHABLE
AIR. HECK...YOU MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO TURN OFF THE A/C AND OPEN UP
THE WINDOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT!

WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY...THE
DRIER AIR WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAKING FOR A GREAT
WEEKEND AHEAD.

A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NO
RETURN WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH OF TN AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. WHILE A VERY WEAK FRONT MIGHT
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...THERE
ISN`T REALLY ANY DISCERNIBLE QPF ASSOCIATED WITH IT. OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN MAY NOT COME UNTIL END OF NEXT
WEEK.

UNGER

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      90  67  90  68 /  10   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    87  66  88  67 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     87  63  85  64 /  10   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       90  66  90  66 /  10   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   90  67  89  67 /  20   0   0   0
WAVERLY        88  68  89  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KOHX 301131
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
631 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT HAS SOME LOW
CLOUDS JUST BEHIND IT...BRINGING SOME MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD ERODE AWAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AROUND MID MORNING. WINDS
SHOULD ALSO PICK UP MID MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A VERY WELCOMED CHANGE IS IN STORE LATER TODAY FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE
IN THE FORM OF DRIER AIR AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.  IN
FACT...THESE CHANGES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
HELPED TO SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
LAST EVENING HAS WORKED ITS WAY ALMOST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE
STATE ALREADY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GOING TO HANG ON FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS HOWEVER...BUT THE DRY AIR ISN`T FAR AWAY. AS THAT DRY
AIR FILTERS IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND HELP TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S TO AROUND 90...BUT DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S BY MID-AFTERNOON WILL MAKE FOR MUCH MORE BREATHABLE
AIR. HECK...YOU MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO TURN OFF THE A/C AND OPEN UP
THE WINDOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT!

WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY...THE
DRIER AIR WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAKING FOR A GREAT
WEEKEND AHEAD.

A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NO
RETURN WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH OF TN AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. WHILE A VERY WEAK FRONT MIGHT
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...THERE
ISN`T REALLY ANY DISCERNIBLE QPF ASSOCIATED WITH IT. OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN MAY NOT COME UNTIL END OF NEXT
WEEK.

UNGER

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      90  67  90  68 /  10   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    87  66  88  67 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     87  63  85  64 /  10   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       90  66  90  66 /  10   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   90  67  89  67 /  20   0   0   0
WAVERLY        88  68  89  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KMRX 301120
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
720 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...MVFR FOG AT TRI SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY...RETURNING TO VFR
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ELSEWHERE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT STILL SITS JUST OFF TO OUR NW AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTENING STRIKE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT KEEPING IN
VCTS AT ANY TERMINAL. WINDS PICK UP A LITTLE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH LATER TODAY...MORE SO AT CHA. CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 301120
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
720 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...MVFR FOG AT TRI SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY...RETURNING TO VFR
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ELSEWHERE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT STILL SITS JUST OFF TO OUR NW AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTENING STRIKE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT KEEPING IN
VCTS AT ANY TERMINAL. WINDS PICK UP A LITTLE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH LATER TODAY...MORE SO AT CHA. CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 301120
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
720 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...MVFR FOG AT TRI SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY...RETURNING TO VFR
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ELSEWHERE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT STILL SITS JUST OFF TO OUR NW AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTENING STRIKE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT KEEPING IN
VCTS AT ANY TERMINAL. WINDS PICK UP A LITTLE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH LATER TODAY...MORE SO AT CHA. CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 301120
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
720 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...MVFR FOG AT TRI SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY...RETURNING TO VFR
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ELSEWHERE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT STILL SITS JUST OFF TO OUR NW AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTENING STRIKE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT KEEPING IN
VCTS AT ANY TERMINAL. WINDS PICK UP A LITTLE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH LATER TODAY...MORE SO AT CHA. CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMEG 300834
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
334 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THE STORY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS MANY ENJOY A BREAK FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT...

CURRENTLY ALOFT...500 MB RIDGING WAS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN US WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. HEIGHTS WERE RISING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH.

FOR THURSDAY...A MUCH MORE PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED WITH UPSTREAM
OBS SHOWING DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA...INCREASING
INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S ACROSS MISSOURI. THIS AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL FEEL
EXCEPTIONAL AFTER EXPERIENCING SEVERAL DAYS OF DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
WITH THE WARMEST READINGS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. GIVEN
THE DRY NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...LOWS WERE DECREASED SLIGHTLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MID AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP BUT
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR MOISTURE TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE
REGION. EVEN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS
WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES VERY MUCH IN CHECK. THIS PERIOD IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE DRY SO A VERY NICE WEEKEND IS IN THE OFFING.

IN THE LONG TERM...A BLOCKING-TYPE PATTERN DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER
LEVELS WITH A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH FEATURE TAKING HOLD BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SOLUTION IS AGREED UPON BY BOTH THE EURO AND
GFS...AND SIMILARLY IN GEFS GUIDANCE. IF THIS HOLDS TRUE...WARMER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PERIODIC TSTORM CHANCES AS
SHORTWAVES DIVE SOUTHEAST AROUND THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH
KTUP COULD SEE BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE AS WELL AS
ISOLD SHRAS/TSRAS OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NE AT 10-
12 KTS WITH POSSIBLY HIGHER GUSTS BY 18Z.

KRM


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 300834
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
334 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THE STORY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS MANY ENJOY A BREAK FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT...

CURRENTLY ALOFT...500 MB RIDGING WAS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN US WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. HEIGHTS WERE RISING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH.

FOR THURSDAY...A MUCH MORE PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED WITH UPSTREAM
OBS SHOWING DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA...INCREASING
INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S ACROSS MISSOURI. THIS AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL FEEL
EXCEPTIONAL AFTER EXPERIENCING SEVERAL DAYS OF DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
WITH THE WARMEST READINGS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. GIVEN
THE DRY NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...LOWS WERE DECREASED SLIGHTLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MID AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP BUT
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR MOISTURE TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE
REGION. EVEN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS
WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES VERY MUCH IN CHECK. THIS PERIOD IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE DRY SO A VERY NICE WEEKEND IS IN THE OFFING.

IN THE LONG TERM...A BLOCKING-TYPE PATTERN DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER
LEVELS WITH A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH FEATURE TAKING HOLD BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SOLUTION IS AGREED UPON BY BOTH THE EURO AND
GFS...AND SIMILARLY IN GEFS GUIDANCE. IF THIS HOLDS TRUE...WARMER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PERIODIC TSTORM CHANCES AS
SHORTWAVES DIVE SOUTHEAST AROUND THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH
KTUP COULD SEE BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE AS WELL AS
ISOLD SHRAS/TSRAS OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NE AT 10-
12 KTS WITH POSSIBLY HIGHER GUSTS BY 18Z.

KRM


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 300834
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
334 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THE STORY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS MANY ENJOY A BREAK FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT...

CURRENTLY ALOFT...500 MB RIDGING WAS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN US WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. HEIGHTS WERE RISING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH.

FOR THURSDAY...A MUCH MORE PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED WITH UPSTREAM
OBS SHOWING DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA...INCREASING
INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S ACROSS MISSOURI. THIS AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL FEEL
EXCEPTIONAL AFTER EXPERIENCING SEVERAL DAYS OF DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
WITH THE WARMEST READINGS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. GIVEN
THE DRY NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...LOWS WERE DECREASED SLIGHTLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MID AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP BUT
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR MOISTURE TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE
REGION. EVEN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS
WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES VERY MUCH IN CHECK. THIS PERIOD IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE DRY SO A VERY NICE WEEKEND IS IN THE OFFING.

IN THE LONG TERM...A BLOCKING-TYPE PATTERN DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER
LEVELS WITH A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH FEATURE TAKING HOLD BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SOLUTION IS AGREED UPON BY BOTH THE EURO AND
GFS...AND SIMILARLY IN GEFS GUIDANCE. IF THIS HOLDS TRUE...WARMER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PERIODIC TSTORM CHANCES AS
SHORTWAVES DIVE SOUTHEAST AROUND THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH
KTUP COULD SEE BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE AS WELL AS
ISOLD SHRAS/TSRAS OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NE AT 10-
12 KTS WITH POSSIBLY HIGHER GUSTS BY 18Z.

KRM


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 300803
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
303 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A VERY WELCOMED CHANGE IS IN STORE LATER TODAY FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE
IN THE FORM OF DRIER AIR AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.  IN
FACT...THESE CHANGES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
HELPED TO SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
LAST EVENING HAS WORKED ITS WAY ALMOST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE
STATE ALREADY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GOING TO HANG ON FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS HOWEVER...BUT THE DRY AIR ISN`T FAR AWAY. AS THAT DRY
AIR FILTERS IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND HELP TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S TO AROUND 90...BUT DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S BY MID-AFTERNOON WILL MAKE FOR MUCH MORE BREATHABLE
AIR. HECK...YOU MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO TURN OFF THE A/C AND OPEN UP
THE WINDOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT!

WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY...THE
DRIER AIR WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAKING FOR A GREAT
WEEKEND AHEAD.

A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NO
RETURN WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH OF TN AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. WHILE A VERY WEAK FRONT MIGHT
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...THERE
ISN`T REALLY ANY DISCERNIBLE QPF ASSOCIATED WITH IT. OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN MAY NOT COME UNTIL END OF NEXT
WEEK.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE TO NEAR CKV BY 30/06Z AND TO PUSH E OF
CSV 30/12Z-30/14Z. AS SFC FRONT APPROACHES CSV...MVFR CEILING/FOG
FORMATION EXPECTED. MVFR FOG CKV/BNA 30/09Z-30/13Z. BUILDING
RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE VFR/SKC CONDITIONS ALL
TAF SITES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      90  67  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    87  66  88  67  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     87  63  85  64  85 /  10   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       90  66  90  67  91 /  10   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   90  65  89  66  91 /  20   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        88  68  89  68  90 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 300656
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
256 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...WEAK COLD FRONT STILL JUST OFF TO
OUR NW BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SO WHILE
NOT QUITE AS HOT AND STICKY AS YESTERDAY STILL PLAN ON APPARENT
TEMPS BEING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST AREAS.

PRECIP CHANCES LOOK MUCH LOWER FOR TODAY COMPARED TO WHAT MODELS
WERE SHOWING SEVERAL DAYS AGO. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR AN EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE THUS LEADING TO DECREASED PRECIP CHANCES. BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. PRECIP CHANCES DROP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
TONIGHT SHOULD BE VERY PLEASANT AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 60S AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS STILL ADVERTISING THE
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH SURFACE RIDGING AT LEAST
THROUGH MONDAY. IN FACT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY SEEMS TO BE MORE WESTERLY THAN SOUTHERLY...WHICH SUPPORTS
THE SUPERBLEND MOS POPS ACTUALLY ABOUT 10 TO 15 PERCENT LOWER NOW
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...I NUDGED POPS DOWN AND KEPT AS
MUCH CONTINUITY AS POSSIBLE FROM OUR 29/12Z FORECAST GRIDS. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
NOW...AS I SEE NO REASON TO GO NEAR CLIMO POPS...UNLESS THE WEAK E-W
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES SAG SOUTH INTO SW VA AND NRN PLATEAU COUNTIES.

FOR TEMPS...30/00Z MOS MAX TEMPS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE DRIER
AIRMASS. TWEAKED THE MAXES UP A BIT IN LINE WITH THE NEW GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...THE SUPERBLEND MAXES/MINS LOOKED GOOD WITH THE USUAL
ADJUSTMENT TO GIVE MORE OF A RANGE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EACH
DAY/NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             93  69  92  67 /  30  10  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  90  65  88  65 /  30  10  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       90  65  89  64 /  30   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              87  62  86  59 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR/TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 300656
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
256 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...WEAK COLD FRONT STILL JUST OFF TO
OUR NW BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SO WHILE
NOT QUITE AS HOT AND STICKY AS YESTERDAY STILL PLAN ON APPARENT
TEMPS BEING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST AREAS.

PRECIP CHANCES LOOK MUCH LOWER FOR TODAY COMPARED TO WHAT MODELS
WERE SHOWING SEVERAL DAYS AGO. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR AN EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE THUS LEADING TO DECREASED PRECIP CHANCES. BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. PRECIP CHANCES DROP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
TONIGHT SHOULD BE VERY PLEASANT AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 60S AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS STILL ADVERTISING THE
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH SURFACE RIDGING AT LEAST
THROUGH MONDAY. IN FACT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY SEEMS TO BE MORE WESTERLY THAN SOUTHERLY...WHICH SUPPORTS
THE SUPERBLEND MOS POPS ACTUALLY ABOUT 10 TO 15 PERCENT LOWER NOW
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...I NUDGED POPS DOWN AND KEPT AS
MUCH CONTINUITY AS POSSIBLE FROM OUR 29/12Z FORECAST GRIDS. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
NOW...AS I SEE NO REASON TO GO NEAR CLIMO POPS...UNLESS THE WEAK E-W
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES SAG SOUTH INTO SW VA AND NRN PLATEAU COUNTIES.

FOR TEMPS...30/00Z MOS MAX TEMPS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE DRIER
AIRMASS. TWEAKED THE MAXES UP A BIT IN LINE WITH THE NEW GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...THE SUPERBLEND MAXES/MINS LOOKED GOOD WITH THE USUAL
ADJUSTMENT TO GIVE MORE OF A RANGE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EACH
DAY/NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             93  69  92  67 /  30  10  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  90  65  88  65 /  30  10  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       90  65  89  64 /  30   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              87  62  86  59 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR/TG



000
FXUS64 KMEG 300534
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1234 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...

ADJUSTED POPS AGAIN OVERNIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT
RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. A FEW LUCKY AREAS MAY GET EARLIER
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WAS JUST EXPANDED EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE
JACKSON TN AREA.

THE MIDSOUTH SHOULD RECEIVE RELIEF FROM THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
COURTESY OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON
MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT NEAR NORMAL...BUT ACCOMPANIED DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO THE 60S OVER MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. THIS DRIER AIR
WAS EVIDENT ON THE 3PM SURFACE MAP... WITH 50S DEWPOINTS COMMON
OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA. THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL PERSIST OVER
THE MIDSOUTH FOR SEVERAL DAYS... GRADUALLY MOISTENING FROM
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...GFS AND ECMWF
DEPICT WEAK AND VARIABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE DRY AIR WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEREAFTER...AN ENCROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD FURTHER
LIMIT RAIN CHANCES DURING THE EARLY PART OF OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE
DAYTIME TEMPS AGAIN WARM TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH
KTUP COULD SEE BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE AS WELL AS
ISOLD SHRAS/TSRAS OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NE AT 10-
12 KTS WITH POSSIBLY HIGHER GUSTS BY 18Z.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 300534
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1234 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...

ADJUSTED POPS AGAIN OVERNIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT
RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. A FEW LUCKY AREAS MAY GET EARLIER
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WAS JUST EXPANDED EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE
JACKSON TN AREA.

THE MIDSOUTH SHOULD RECEIVE RELIEF FROM THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
COURTESY OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON
MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT NEAR NORMAL...BUT ACCOMPANIED DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO THE 60S OVER MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. THIS DRIER AIR
WAS EVIDENT ON THE 3PM SURFACE MAP... WITH 50S DEWPOINTS COMMON
OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA. THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL PERSIST OVER
THE MIDSOUTH FOR SEVERAL DAYS... GRADUALLY MOISTENING FROM
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...GFS AND ECMWF
DEPICT WEAK AND VARIABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE DRY AIR WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEREAFTER...AN ENCROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD FURTHER
LIMIT RAIN CHANCES DURING THE EARLY PART OF OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE
DAYTIME TEMPS AGAIN WARM TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH
KTUP COULD SEE BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE AS WELL AS
ISOLD SHRAS/TSRAS OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NE AT 10-
12 KTS WITH POSSIBLY HIGHER GUSTS BY 18Z.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 300534
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1234 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...

ADJUSTED POPS AGAIN OVERNIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT
RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. A FEW LUCKY AREAS MAY GET EARLIER
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WAS JUST EXPANDED EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE
JACKSON TN AREA.

THE MIDSOUTH SHOULD RECEIVE RELIEF FROM THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
COURTESY OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON
MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT NEAR NORMAL...BUT ACCOMPANIED DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO THE 60S OVER MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. THIS DRIER AIR
WAS EVIDENT ON THE 3PM SURFACE MAP... WITH 50S DEWPOINTS COMMON
OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA. THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL PERSIST OVER
THE MIDSOUTH FOR SEVERAL DAYS... GRADUALLY MOISTENING FROM
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...GFS AND ECMWF
DEPICT WEAK AND VARIABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE DRY AIR WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEREAFTER...AN ENCROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD FURTHER
LIMIT RAIN CHANCES DURING THE EARLY PART OF OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE
DAYTIME TEMPS AGAIN WARM TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH
KTUP COULD SEE BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE AS WELL AS
ISOLD SHRAS/TSRAS OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NE AT 10-
12 KTS WITH POSSIBLY HIGHER GUSTS BY 18Z.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 300534
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1234 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...

ADJUSTED POPS AGAIN OVERNIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT
RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. A FEW LUCKY AREAS MAY GET EARLIER
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WAS JUST EXPANDED EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE
JACKSON TN AREA.

THE MIDSOUTH SHOULD RECEIVE RELIEF FROM THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
COURTESY OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON
MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT NEAR NORMAL...BUT ACCOMPANIED DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO THE 60S OVER MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. THIS DRIER AIR
WAS EVIDENT ON THE 3PM SURFACE MAP... WITH 50S DEWPOINTS COMMON
OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA. THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL PERSIST OVER
THE MIDSOUTH FOR SEVERAL DAYS... GRADUALLY MOISTENING FROM
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...GFS AND ECMWF
DEPICT WEAK AND VARIABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE DRY AIR WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEREAFTER...AN ENCROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD FURTHER
LIMIT RAIN CHANCES DURING THE EARLY PART OF OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE
DAYTIME TEMPS AGAIN WARM TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH
KTUP COULD SEE BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE AS WELL AS
ISOLD SHRAS/TSRAS OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NE AT 10-
12 KTS WITH POSSIBLY HIGHER GUSTS BY 18Z.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 300532
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
132 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT STILL OFF TO OUR NW BUT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MODELS STILL HINT AT ADDITIONAL
ISO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE VCTS IN AT TRI TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
STILL A QUESTION ABOUT CLOUD COVER AND FOG DEVELOPMENT AT TRI...WILL
LEAVE MVFR FOR NOW. WINDS PICK UP A LITTLE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH LATER TODAY...CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR



000
FXUS64 KOHX 300454 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1154 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE TO NEAR CKV BY 30/06Z AND TO PUSH E OF
CSV 30/12Z-30/14Z. AS SFC FRONT APPROACHES CSV...MVFR CEILING/FOG
FORMATION EXPECTED. MVFR FOG CKV/BNA 30/09Z-30/13Z. BUILDING RIDGING
INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE VFR/SKC CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES
30/15Z-31/06Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 731 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC COMPARISONS OF 500 MB HEIGHTS REVEAL MORE OF AN ANTI
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER TN AS COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO WHEN THE FLOW WAS
STRAIGHT. THIS ADDED EXERTIONS IS WORKING TO IMPEDE THE
CONTINUATION OF THE CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHWARD. SO...AS SFC TEMPS
COOL DOWN...THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. HRRR IS IN SUPPORT OF THE
TREND.

ONLY CHANGE TO FCST WILL BE TO ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. HEAT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7PM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION UPDATE...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
MONITORING A LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS APPROACHING CKV AROUND 30/00Z...BUT
WEAKENING RAPIDLY. IT LOOKS LIKE AT WORST SOME BKN MVFR CB CEILINGS/VSBYS
CKV...BUT PROBABLY MORE LIKELY VFR CEILINGS...THRU 30/01Z. IF CONVECTION
HOLDS TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH...SOME VCTS MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND BNA 30/01Z-
30/03Z. AS CONVECTION MOVES SEWD INTO MID STATE...POST BKN/OVC AC/CI
POSSIBLE THRU 30/06Z-30/07Z CKV/BNA. SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE TO
NEAR CKV BY 30/06Z AND TO PUSH E OF CSV 30/12Z-30/14Z. AS SFC FRONT
APPROACHES CSV...MVFR CEILING/FOG FORMATION EXPECTED. MVFR FOG CKV/BNA
30/08Z-30/14Z. BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES 30/15Z-30/24Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 329 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING LEFT QUITE THE SOUPY AIR MASS IN PLACE.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...STILL THINK A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...BUT WILL SIDE WITH THE HRRR AS MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR...A VERY NICE CHANGE
IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
HUMID ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOWER 90S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED INSTEAD OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER THE
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH HUMIDITY VALUES TOO.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AGAIN SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH LOSES ITS STRONGHOLD. AS A
RESULT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THEREAFTER.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      75  90  66  90 /  30  10   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    71  88  65  89 /  40   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     72  85  64  84 /  30  20   0   0
COLUMBIA       75  90  66  90 /  20  20   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   74  90  66  89 /  20  20   0   0
WAVERLY        73  89  67  89 /  30   0   0   0
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31



000
FXUS64 KOHX 300454 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1154 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE TO NEAR CKV BY 30/06Z AND TO PUSH E OF
CSV 30/12Z-30/14Z. AS SFC FRONT APPROACHES CSV...MVFR CEILING/FOG
FORMATION EXPECTED. MVFR FOG CKV/BNA 30/09Z-30/13Z. BUILDING RIDGING
INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE VFR/SKC CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES
30/15Z-31/06Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 731 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC COMPARISONS OF 500 MB HEIGHTS REVEAL MORE OF AN ANTI
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER TN AS COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO WHEN THE FLOW WAS
STRAIGHT. THIS ADDED EXERTIONS IS WORKING TO IMPEDE THE
CONTINUATION OF THE CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHWARD. SO...AS SFC TEMPS
COOL DOWN...THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. HRRR IS IN SUPPORT OF THE
TREND.

ONLY CHANGE TO FCST WILL BE TO ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. HEAT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7PM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION UPDATE...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
MONITORING A LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS APPROACHING CKV AROUND 30/00Z...BUT
WEAKENING RAPIDLY. IT LOOKS LIKE AT WORST SOME BKN MVFR CB CEILINGS/VSBYS
CKV...BUT PROBABLY MORE LIKELY VFR CEILINGS...THRU 30/01Z. IF CONVECTION
HOLDS TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH...SOME VCTS MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND BNA 30/01Z-
30/03Z. AS CONVECTION MOVES SEWD INTO MID STATE...POST BKN/OVC AC/CI
POSSIBLE THRU 30/06Z-30/07Z CKV/BNA. SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE TO
NEAR CKV BY 30/06Z AND TO PUSH E OF CSV 30/12Z-30/14Z. AS SFC FRONT
APPROACHES CSV...MVFR CEILING/FOG FORMATION EXPECTED. MVFR FOG CKV/BNA
30/08Z-30/14Z. BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES 30/15Z-30/24Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 329 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING LEFT QUITE THE SOUPY AIR MASS IN PLACE.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...STILL THINK A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...BUT WILL SIDE WITH THE HRRR AS MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR...A VERY NICE CHANGE
IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
HUMID ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOWER 90S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED INSTEAD OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER THE
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH HUMIDITY VALUES TOO.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AGAIN SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH LOSES ITS STRONGHOLD. AS A
RESULT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THEREAFTER.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      75  90  66  90 /  30  10   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    71  88  65  89 /  40   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     72  85  64  84 /  30  20   0   0
COLUMBIA       75  90  66  90 /  20  20   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   74  90  66  89 /  20  20   0   0
WAVERLY        73  89  67  89 /  30   0   0   0
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31



000
FXUS64 KOHX 300348
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1048 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
IR IMAGERY SHOWING WARMING TOPS OVER KY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
ACTIVITY OVER OUR EASTERN SECTIONS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. JUST
UPSTREAM...WEAK NW FLOW APPEARS TO BE IMPULSE FREE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. THUS...WILL ADHERE TO THE HRRR DATA
AND REMOVE POPS FROM OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. WILL ALSO REDUCE POPS
SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR EAST AND SOUTH.

CURRENT DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE RATHER LOW ACROSS OUR NORTH.
NUMERICAL DATA STILL NO INDICATING VSBYS FALLING TO 1SM OR LOWER.
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND LIKELY SLOW DOWN FOG DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL. WILL GO
AHEAD AND INCREASE SKY GRIDS IN THE NEAR TERM. ALSO...A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TWEAK OF TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC COMPARISONS OF 500 MB HEIGHTS REVEAL MORE OF AN ANTI
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER TN AS COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO WHEN THE FLOW WAS
STRAIGHT. THIS ADDED EXERTIONS IS WORKING TO IMPEDE THE
CONTINUATION OF THE CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHWARD. SO...AS SFC TEMPS
COOL DOWN...THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. HRRR IS IN SUPPORT OF THE
TREND.

ONLY CHANGE TO FCST WILL BE TO ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. HEAT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7PM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION UPDATE...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
MONITORING A LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS APPROACHING CKV AROUND 30/00Z...BUT
WEAKENING RAPIDLY. IT LOOKS LIKE AT WORST SOME BKN MVFR CB CEILINGS/VSBYS
CKV...BUT PROBABLY MORE LIKELY VFR CEILINGS...THRU 30/01Z. IF CONVECTION
HOLDS TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH...SOME VCTS MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND BNA 30/01Z-
30/03Z. AS CONVECTION MOVES SEWD INTO MID STATE...POST BKN/OVC AC/CI
POSSIBLE THRU 30/06Z-30/07Z CKV/BNA. SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE TO
NEAR CKV BY 30/06Z AND TO PUSH E OF CSV 30/12Z-30/14Z. AS SFC FRONT
APPROACHES CSV...MVFR CEILING/FOG FORMATION EXPECTED. MVFR FOG CKV/BNA
30/08Z-30/14Z. BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES 30/15Z-30/24Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 329 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING LEFT QUITE THE SOUPY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...STILL THINK A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...BUT WILL SIDE WITH THE HRRR AS MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR...A VERY NICE CHANGE
IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
HUMID ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOWER 90S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED INSTEAD OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER THE
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH HUMIDITY VALUES TOO.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AGAIN SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH LOSES ITS STRONGHOLD. AS A
RESULT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THEREAFTER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      74  90  66  90 /  20  10   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    71  88  65  89 /  10   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     72  85  64  84 /  30  20   0   0
COLUMBIA       74  90  66  90 /  20  20   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   74  90  66  89 /  20  20   0   0
WAVERLY        72  89  67  89 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21



000
FXUS64 KOHX 300348
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1048 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
IR IMAGERY SHOWING WARMING TOPS OVER KY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
ACTIVITY OVER OUR EASTERN SECTIONS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. JUST
UPSTREAM...WEAK NW FLOW APPEARS TO BE IMPULSE FREE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. THUS...WILL ADHERE TO THE HRRR DATA
AND REMOVE POPS FROM OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. WILL ALSO REDUCE POPS
SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR EAST AND SOUTH.

CURRENT DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE RATHER LOW ACROSS OUR NORTH.
NUMERICAL DATA STILL NO INDICATING VSBYS FALLING TO 1SM OR LOWER.
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND LIKELY SLOW DOWN FOG DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL. WILL GO
AHEAD AND INCREASE SKY GRIDS IN THE NEAR TERM. ALSO...A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TWEAK OF TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC COMPARISONS OF 500 MB HEIGHTS REVEAL MORE OF AN ANTI
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER TN AS COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO WHEN THE FLOW WAS
STRAIGHT. THIS ADDED EXERTIONS IS WORKING TO IMPEDE THE
CONTINUATION OF THE CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHWARD. SO...AS SFC TEMPS
COOL DOWN...THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. HRRR IS IN SUPPORT OF THE
TREND.

ONLY CHANGE TO FCST WILL BE TO ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. HEAT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7PM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION UPDATE...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
MONITORING A LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS APPROACHING CKV AROUND 30/00Z...BUT
WEAKENING RAPIDLY. IT LOOKS LIKE AT WORST SOME BKN MVFR CB CEILINGS/VSBYS
CKV...BUT PROBABLY MORE LIKELY VFR CEILINGS...THRU 30/01Z. IF CONVECTION
HOLDS TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH...SOME VCTS MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND BNA 30/01Z-
30/03Z. AS CONVECTION MOVES SEWD INTO MID STATE...POST BKN/OVC AC/CI
POSSIBLE THRU 30/06Z-30/07Z CKV/BNA. SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE TO
NEAR CKV BY 30/06Z AND TO PUSH E OF CSV 30/12Z-30/14Z. AS SFC FRONT
APPROACHES CSV...MVFR CEILING/FOG FORMATION EXPECTED. MVFR FOG CKV/BNA
30/08Z-30/14Z. BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES 30/15Z-30/24Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 329 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING LEFT QUITE THE SOUPY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...STILL THINK A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...BUT WILL SIDE WITH THE HRRR AS MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR...A VERY NICE CHANGE
IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
HUMID ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOWER 90S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED INSTEAD OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER THE
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH HUMIDITY VALUES TOO.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AGAIN SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH LOSES ITS STRONGHOLD. AS A
RESULT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THEREAFTER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      74  90  66  90 /  20  10   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    71  88  65  89 /  10   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     72  85  64  84 /  30  20   0   0
COLUMBIA       74  90  66  90 /  20  20   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   74  90  66  89 /  20  20   0   0
WAVERLY        72  89  67  89 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KMEG 300201
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
901 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ADJUSTED POPS AGAIN OVERNIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT
RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. A FEW LUCKY AREAS MAY GET EARLIER
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WAS JUST EXPANDED EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE
JACKSON TN AREA.

THE MIDSOUTH SHOULD RECEIVE RELIEF FROM THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
COURTESY OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON
MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT NEAR NORMAL...BUT ACCOMPANIED DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO THE 60S OVER MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. THIS DRIER AIR
WAS EVIDENT ON THE 3PM SURFACE MAP... WITH 50S DEWPOINTS COMMON
OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA. THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL PERSIST OVER
THE MIDSOUTH FOR SEVERAL DAYS... GRADUALLY MOISTENING FROM
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...GFS AND ECMWF
DEPICT WEAK AND VARIABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE DRY AIR WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEREAFTER...AN ENCROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD FURTHER
LIMIT RAIN CHANCES DURING THE EARLY PART OF OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE
DAYTIME TEMPS AGAIN WARM TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF SET

ISOLD SHRAS/TSRAS MAY DEVELOP WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A COLD
FRONT SINKS INTO THE AREA. HAVE VCTS MENTIONED AT KJBR AND KMKL
FOR NOW. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT KTUP FROM FOG AND/OR
STRATUS AROUND 11-15Z AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM NORTH. HAVE ALSO
MENTIONED VCTS WORDING AT KTUP BETWEEN 18-22Z AS REDEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT MAY OCCUR
NEARBY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 14Z. THEREAFTER
EXPECT SPEEDS OF 8-12 KTS FROM THE NORTHEAST.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 300201
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
901 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ADJUSTED POPS AGAIN OVERNIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT
RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. A FEW LUCKY AREAS MAY GET EARLIER
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WAS JUST EXPANDED EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE
JACKSON TN AREA.

THE MIDSOUTH SHOULD RECEIVE RELIEF FROM THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
COURTESY OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON
MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT NEAR NORMAL...BUT ACCOMPANIED DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO THE 60S OVER MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. THIS DRIER AIR
WAS EVIDENT ON THE 3PM SURFACE MAP... WITH 50S DEWPOINTS COMMON
OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA. THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL PERSIST OVER
THE MIDSOUTH FOR SEVERAL DAYS... GRADUALLY MOISTENING FROM
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...GFS AND ECMWF
DEPICT WEAK AND VARIABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE DRY AIR WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEREAFTER...AN ENCROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD FURTHER
LIMIT RAIN CHANCES DURING THE EARLY PART OF OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE
DAYTIME TEMPS AGAIN WARM TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF SET

ISOLD SHRAS/TSRAS MAY DEVELOP WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A COLD
FRONT SINKS INTO THE AREA. HAVE VCTS MENTIONED AT KJBR AND KMKL
FOR NOW. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT KTUP FROM FOG AND/OR
STRATUS AROUND 11-15Z AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM NORTH. HAVE ALSO
MENTIONED VCTS WORDING AT KTUP BETWEEN 18-22Z AS REDEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT MAY OCCUR
NEARBY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 14Z. THEREAFTER
EXPECT SPEEDS OF 8-12 KTS FROM THE NORTHEAST.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 300201
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
901 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ADJUSTED POPS AGAIN OVERNIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT
RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. A FEW LUCKY AREAS MAY GET EARLIER
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WAS JUST EXPANDED EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE
JACKSON TN AREA.

THE MIDSOUTH SHOULD RECEIVE RELIEF FROM THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
COURTESY OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON
MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT NEAR NORMAL...BUT ACCOMPANIED DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO THE 60S OVER MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. THIS DRIER AIR
WAS EVIDENT ON THE 3PM SURFACE MAP... WITH 50S DEWPOINTS COMMON
OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA. THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL PERSIST OVER
THE MIDSOUTH FOR SEVERAL DAYS... GRADUALLY MOISTENING FROM
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...GFS AND ECMWF
DEPICT WEAK AND VARIABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE DRY AIR WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEREAFTER...AN ENCROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD FURTHER
LIMIT RAIN CHANCES DURING THE EARLY PART OF OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE
DAYTIME TEMPS AGAIN WARM TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF SET

ISOLD SHRAS/TSRAS MAY DEVELOP WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A COLD
FRONT SINKS INTO THE AREA. HAVE VCTS MENTIONED AT KJBR AND KMKL
FOR NOW. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT KTUP FROM FOG AND/OR
STRATUS AROUND 11-15Z AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM NORTH. HAVE ALSO
MENTIONED VCTS WORDING AT KTUP BETWEEN 18-22Z AS REDEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT MAY OCCUR
NEARBY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 14Z. THEREAFTER
EXPECT SPEEDS OF 8-12 KTS FROM THE NORTHEAST.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 300201
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
901 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ADJUSTED POPS AGAIN OVERNIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT
RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. A FEW LUCKY AREAS MAY GET EARLIER
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WAS JUST EXPANDED EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE
JACKSON TN AREA.

THE MIDSOUTH SHOULD RECEIVE RELIEF FROM THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
COURTESY OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON
MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT NEAR NORMAL...BUT ACCOMPANIED DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO THE 60S OVER MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. THIS DRIER AIR
WAS EVIDENT ON THE 3PM SURFACE MAP... WITH 50S DEWPOINTS COMMON
OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA. THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL PERSIST OVER
THE MIDSOUTH FOR SEVERAL DAYS... GRADUALLY MOISTENING FROM
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...GFS AND ECMWF
DEPICT WEAK AND VARIABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE DRY AIR WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEREAFTER...AN ENCROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD FURTHER
LIMIT RAIN CHANCES DURING THE EARLY PART OF OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE
DAYTIME TEMPS AGAIN WARM TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF SET

ISOLD SHRAS/TSRAS MAY DEVELOP WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A COLD
FRONT SINKS INTO THE AREA. HAVE VCTS MENTIONED AT KJBR AND KMKL
FOR NOW. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT KTUP FROM FOG AND/OR
STRATUS AROUND 11-15Z AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM NORTH. HAVE ALSO
MENTIONED VCTS WORDING AT KTUP BETWEEN 18-22Z AS REDEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT MAY OCCUR
NEARBY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 14Z. THEREAFTER
EXPECT SPEEDS OF 8-12 KTS FROM THE NORTHEAST.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 300126
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
926 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT WILL DRAW CLOSER OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY HAVE
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA. SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
TO OUR NORTHWEST IS MOVING SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THIS TO WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES. STILL LOOKS LIKE CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED
OVERNIGHT...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT. WILL TWEAK TEMPS...DEW POINTS AND SKY IN THE DATABASE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  93  69  91 /  30  30  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  73  91  66  88 /  30  30  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       73  91  65  88 /  30  30   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              69  87  62  86 /  40  30  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 300126
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
926 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT WILL DRAW CLOSER OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY HAVE
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA. SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
TO OUR NORTHWEST IS MOVING SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THIS TO WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES. STILL LOOKS LIKE CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED
OVERNIGHT...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT. WILL TWEAK TEMPS...DEW POINTS AND SKY IN THE DATABASE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  93  69  91 /  30  30  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  73  91  66  88 /  30  30  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       73  91  65  88 /  30  30   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              69  87  62  86 /  40  30  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 300126
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
926 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT WILL DRAW CLOSER OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY HAVE
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA. SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
TO OUR NORTHWEST IS MOVING SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THIS TO WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES. STILL LOOKS LIKE CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED
OVERNIGHT...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT. WILL TWEAK TEMPS...DEW POINTS AND SKY IN THE DATABASE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  93  69  91 /  30  30  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  73  91  66  88 /  30  30  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       73  91  65  88 /  30  30   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              69  87  62  86 /  40  30  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 300126
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
926 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT WILL DRAW CLOSER OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY HAVE
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA. SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
TO OUR NORTHWEST IS MOVING SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THIS TO WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES. STILL LOOKS LIKE CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED
OVERNIGHT...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT. WILL TWEAK TEMPS...DEW POINTS AND SKY IN THE DATABASE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  93  69  91 /  30  30  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  73  91  66  88 /  30  30  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       73  91  65  88 /  30  30   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              69  87  62  86 /  40  30  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 300126
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
926 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT WILL DRAW CLOSER OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY HAVE
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA. SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
TO OUR NORTHWEST IS MOVING SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THIS TO WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES. STILL LOOKS LIKE CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED
OVERNIGHT...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT. WILL TWEAK TEMPS...DEW POINTS AND SKY IN THE DATABASE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  93  69  91 /  30  30  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  73  91  66  88 /  30  30  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       73  91  65  88 /  30  30   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              69  87  62  86 /  40  30  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 300031
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
731 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC COMPARISONS OF 500 MB HEIGHTS REVEAL MORE OF AN ANTI
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER TN AS COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO WHEN THE FLOW WAS
STRAIGHT. THIS ADDED EXERTIONS IS WORKING TO IMPEDE THE
CONTINUATION OF THE CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHWARD. SO...AS SFC TEMPS
COOL DOWN...THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. HRRR IS IN SUPPORT OF THE
TREND.

ONLY CHANGE TO FCST WILL BE TO ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. HEAT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7PM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION UPDATE...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
MONITORING A LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS APPROACHING CKV AROUND 30/00Z...BUT
WEAKENING RAPIDLY. IT LOOKS LIKE AT WORST SOME BKN MVFR CB CEILINGS/VSBYS
CKV...BUT PROBABLY MORE LIKELY VFR CEILINGS...THRU 30/01Z. IF CONVECTION
HOLDS TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH...SOME VCTS MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND BNA 30/01Z-
30/03Z. AS CONVECTION MOVES SEWD INTO MID STATE...POST BKN/OVC AC/CI
POSSIBLE THRU 30/06Z-30/07Z CKV/BNA. SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE TO
NEAR CKV BY 30/06Z AND TO PUSH E OF CSV 30/12Z-30/14Z. AS SFC FRONT
APPROACHES CSV...MVFR CEILING/FOG FORMATION EXPECTED. MVFR FOG CKV/BNA
30/08Z-30/14Z. BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES 30/15Z-30/24Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 329 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING LEFT QUITE THE SOUPY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...STILL THINK A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...BUT WILL SIDE WITH THE HRRR AS MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR...A VERY NICE CHANGE
IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
HUMID ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOWER 90S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED INSTEAD OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER THE
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH HUMIDITY VALUES TOO.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AGAIN SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH LOSES ITS STRONGHOLD. AS A
RESULT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THEREAFTER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      75  90  66  90 /  30  10   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    71  88  65  89 /  40   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     72  85  64  84 /  30  20   0   0
COLUMBIA       75  90  66  90 /  20  20   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   74  90  66  89 /  20  20   0   0
WAVERLY        73  89  67  89 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21



000
FXUS64 KOHX 300024 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
724 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
MONITORING A LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS APPROACHING CKV AROUND 30/00Z...BUT
WEAKENING RAPIDLY. IT LOOKS LIKE AT WORST SOME BKN MVFR CB CEILINGS/VSBYS
CKV...BUT PROBABLY MORE LIKELY VFR CEILINGS...THRU 30/01Z. IF CONVECTION
HOLDS TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH...SOME VCTS MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND BNA 30/01Z-
30/03Z. AS CONVECTION MOVES SEWD INTO MID STATE...POST BKN/OVC AC/CI
POSSIBLE THRU 30/06Z-30/07Z CKV/BNA. SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE TO
NEAR CKV BY 30/06Z AND TO PUSH E OF CSV 30/12Z-30/14Z. AS SFC FRONT
APPROACHES CSV...MVFR CEILING/FOG FORMATION EXPECTED. MVFR FOG CKV/BNA
30/08Z-30/14Z. BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES 30/15Z-30/24Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 329 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING LEFT QUITE THE SOUPY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...STILL THINK A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...BUT WILL SIDE WITH THE HRRR AS MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR...A VERY NICE CHANGE
IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
HUMID ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOWER 90S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED INSTEAD OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER THE
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH HUMIDITY VALUES TOO.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AGAIN SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH LOSES ITS STRONGHOLD. AS A
RESULT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THEREAFTER.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      75  90  66  90 /  20  10   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    71  88  65  89 /  20   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     72  85  64  84 /  30  20   0   0
COLUMBIA       75  90  66  90 /  20  20   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   74  90  66  89 /  20  20   0   0
WAVERLY        73  89  67  89 /  20   0   0   0
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31




000
FXUS64 KOHX 300024 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
724 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
MONITORING A LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS APPROACHING CKV AROUND 30/00Z...BUT
WEAKENING RAPIDLY. IT LOOKS LIKE AT WORST SOME BKN MVFR CB CEILINGS/VSBYS
CKV...BUT PROBABLY MORE LIKELY VFR CEILINGS...THRU 30/01Z. IF CONVECTION
HOLDS TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH...SOME VCTS MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND BNA 30/01Z-
30/03Z. AS CONVECTION MOVES SEWD INTO MID STATE...POST BKN/OVC AC/CI
POSSIBLE THRU 30/06Z-30/07Z CKV/BNA. SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE TO
NEAR CKV BY 30/06Z AND TO PUSH E OF CSV 30/12Z-30/14Z. AS SFC FRONT
APPROACHES CSV...MVFR CEILING/FOG FORMATION EXPECTED. MVFR FOG CKV/BNA
30/08Z-30/14Z. BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES 30/15Z-30/24Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 329 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING LEFT QUITE THE SOUPY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...STILL THINK A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...BUT WILL SIDE WITH THE HRRR AS MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR...A VERY NICE CHANGE
IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
HUMID ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOWER 90S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED INSTEAD OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER THE
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH HUMIDITY VALUES TOO.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AGAIN SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH LOSES ITS STRONGHOLD. AS A
RESULT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THEREAFTER.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      75  90  66  90 /  20  10   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    71  88  65  89 /  20   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     72  85  64  84 /  30  20   0   0
COLUMBIA       75  90  66  90 /  20  20   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   74  90  66  89 /  20  20   0   0
WAVERLY        73  89  67  89 /  20   0   0   0
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31



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