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000
FXUS64 KMRX 280002 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
802 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...AN EARLY UPDATE TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT
SOONER FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND SMOKIES...ALTHOUGH RECENT RADAR
TRENDS SHOW ACTIVITY WEAKENING. HRRR MODEL DID NOT DEPICT THESE LEAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT DOES SPREAD THE LARGER AREA OF
CONVECTION OVER NRN AL NE INTO SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS IN LINE WITH 23Z TEMPS AND DEW
POINT TEMPS. WILL UPDATE LATER TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING AND
FRESHEN GRIDS AGAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             66  82  66  85 /  50  50  20  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  81  65  83 /  20  30  20  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       64  81  64  83 /  30  40  20  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              62  82  63  82 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 280002 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
802 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...AN EARLY UPDATE TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT
SOONER FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND SMOKIES...ALTHOUGH RECENT RADAR
TRENDS SHOW ACTIVITY WEAKENING. HRRR MODEL DID NOT DEPICT THESE LEAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT DOES SPREAD THE LARGER AREA OF
CONVECTION OVER NRN AL NE INTO SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS IN LINE WITH 23Z TEMPS AND DEW
POINT TEMPS. WILL UPDATE LATER TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING AND
FRESHEN GRIDS AGAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             66  82  66  85 /  50  50  20  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  81  65  83 /  20  30  20  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       64  81  64  83 /  30  40  20  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              62  82  63  82 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG



000
FXUS64 KMRX 280002 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
802 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...AN EARLY UPDATE TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT
SOONER FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND SMOKIES...ALTHOUGH RECENT RADAR
TRENDS SHOW ACTIVITY WEAKENING. HRRR MODEL DID NOT DEPICT THESE LEAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT DOES SPREAD THE LARGER AREA OF
CONVECTION OVER NRN AL NE INTO SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS IN LINE WITH 23Z TEMPS AND DEW
POINT TEMPS. WILL UPDATE LATER TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING AND
FRESHEN GRIDS AGAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             66  82  66  85 /  50  50  20  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  81  65  83 /  20  30  20  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       64  81  64  83 /  30  40  20  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              62  82  63  82 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOHX 272349
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
649 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.EVENING UPDATE...

MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST THIS EVENING. LOOKS LIKE
MAJORITY OF PRECIP FROM UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN MS WILL AFFECT
ONLY FAR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN/SOUTHERN PLATEAU THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. BACKED OFF POPS TO HIGH CHC SOUTH
AND SLIGHT CHC NORTH THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND TAPERING OFF THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

INCREASED OVERNIGHT MINS A DEGREE OR TWO WITH THE CONTINUED MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE. NOT SURE SKIES WILL FULLY CLEAR EITHER. THINK
THERE IS A GOOD SHOT AT PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TN TONIGHT-DAWN THRS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED AMPLE
RAINFALL TODAY. OTHERWISE...UPDATED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WX
ELEMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT SITUATION. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE, SURFACE AND ALOFT, CENTERED OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREA, WILL KEEP A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A REDUNDANT WEATHER PATTERN, WITH LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND BR,
FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND/OR IFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE AGAIN TO GENERALLY VFR AFTER 14Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL





000
FXUS64 KOHX 272349
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
649 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.EVENING UPDATE...

MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST THIS EVENING. LOOKS LIKE
MAJORITY OF PRECIP FROM UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN MS WILL AFFECT
ONLY FAR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN/SOUTHERN PLATEAU THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. BACKED OFF POPS TO HIGH CHC SOUTH
AND SLIGHT CHC NORTH THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND TAPERING OFF THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

INCREASED OVERNIGHT MINS A DEGREE OR TWO WITH THE CONTINUED MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE. NOT SURE SKIES WILL FULLY CLEAR EITHER. THINK
THERE IS A GOOD SHOT AT PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TN TONIGHT-DAWN THRS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED AMPLE
RAINFALL TODAY. OTHERWISE...UPDATED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WX
ELEMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT SITUATION. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE, SURFACE AND ALOFT, CENTERED OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREA, WILL KEEP A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A REDUNDANT WEATHER PATTERN, WITH LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND BR,
FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND/OR IFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE AGAIN TO GENERALLY VFR AFTER 14Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMEG 272331
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
631 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WE REMAIN IN A VERY MESSY PATTERN WHEREIN THE SMALLEST OF FEATURES
PLAY BIG ROLES IN THE STRENGTH OF STORMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AND OUR LAWN AND
GARDENS WATERED. HOWEVER IT DOES COME WITH A PRICE...SEE BROOKLAND
ARKANSAS FOR AN EXAMPLE. HEAVY RAIN...UP TO THREE
INCHES...PRODUCED QUITE A BIT OF FLASH FLOODING THERE TODAY.

NOT A LOT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER TOMORROW AND
FRIDAY...BUT OVER THE WEEKEND...A BROAD TROUGH WILL SHIFT OUT OF
THE PLAINS RESULTING IN THICKNESS FALLS...AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD
BE SOLIDLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE. EXPECT LOW TO MIDDLE 80S
EACH DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.

AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TOMORROW AND
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS WILL INCREASE. PW`S
WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES SO THE THREAT OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE...IF NOT INCREASE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STRENGTHENING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. STORMS SHOULD
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SUBTLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
THE MEAN FLOW WILL PLAY MAJOR ROLES IN PRECIPITATION EACH
PERIOD...MUCH LIKE WE SAW YESTERDAY AND TODAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE A CUTOFF LOW PARKED NEAR OR JUST
WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK...IF THIS SCENARIO
PANS OUT...WE MAY NEED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY DURING THE
PERIOD...BUT READINGS SHOULD STILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BUT THEN LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT PRODUCE IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE KTUP
AREA THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID-MORNING ON
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 272323
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
623 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE, SURFACE AND ALOFT, CENTERED OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREA, WILL KEEP A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A REDUNDANT WEATHER PATTERN, WITH LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND BR,
FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND/OR IFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE AGAIN TO GENERALLY VFR AFTER 14Z.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 272323
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
623 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE, SURFACE AND ALOFT, CENTERED OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREA, WILL KEEP A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A REDUNDANT WEATHER PATTERN, WITH LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND BR,
FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND/OR IFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE AGAIN TO GENERALLY VFR AFTER 14Z.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KMRX 272316
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
715 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...MAIN CONCERN IS THE VERY NEAR TERM AS A LINE OF TSRA
APPROACHES CHA AND TYS TAF SITES. OPTED TO COVER WITH VCTS AND TEMPO
SHOWERS FOR NOW. THIS ACTIVITY IS UNLIKELY TO REACH TRI DUE TO LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING SHORTLY.

OTHERWISE...FOLLOWED SIMILAR TREND OF PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE WITH
BRIEF MVFR FOG AT TRI...THEN SHOWERS AND TSRA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AFFECTING CHA AND TYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             66  82  66  85 /  50  50  20  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  81  65  83 /  20  30  20  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       64  81  64  83 /  30  40  20  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              62  82  63  82 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 272316
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
715 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...MAIN CONCERN IS THE VERY NEAR TERM AS A LINE OF TSRA
APPROACHES CHA AND TYS TAF SITES. OPTED TO COVER WITH VCTS AND TEMPO
SHOWERS FOR NOW. THIS ACTIVITY IS UNLIKELY TO REACH TRI DUE TO LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING SHORTLY.

OTHERWISE...FOLLOWED SIMILAR TREND OF PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE WITH
BRIEF MVFR FOG AT TRI...THEN SHOWERS AND TSRA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AFFECTING CHA AND TYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             66  82  66  85 /  50  50  20  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  81  65  83 /  20  30  20  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       64  81  64  83 /  30  40  20  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              62  82  63  82 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG



000
FXUS64 KOHX 272030
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. TODAY`S
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AMPLIFIED A BIT BY A SERIES OF IMPULSES MOVING
WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TONIGHT...THE BETTER MOISTURE
AXIS WILL SHIFT AND MOVE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HRRR SHOWS A RATHER
WIDESPREAD SURGE OF MOISTURE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS. THE DEGREE OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED
OVERNIGHT. THUS...POPS WILL BE HELD DOWN INTO THE 30-50 PERCENT
RANGE FOR TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WISE...WE ARE ONLY UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE. AS FOR FOG POTENTIAL...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL
DROP TO BELOW 1F FOR MANY AREAS. ALSO...NUMERICAL DATA SHOWING
SOME LOW VSBY CATS FOR LATE TONIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE
SOME PATCHY FOG FOR THE 06Z-13Z TIME FRAME.

ON THURSDAY...18Z CAP EROSION LOOKS PRONOUNCED ONCE AGAIN. MOISTURE
LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL INCLUDE LOW
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY AFT AND INTO THE EVE.

CAPES LOOK A LITTLE STRONGER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS IMPULSES ALOFT
COME MORE INTO PLAY. AT THAT TIME...STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
BE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ENABLE A COLD
FRONT TO GAIN SOME SOUTHEASTWARD MOMENTUM TOWARD OUR AREA.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS WE MOVE TOWARD
THIS WEEKEND. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
APPROACH BY THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

IN THE EXT FCST...ONCE THE FRONT REACHES OUR AREA...IT WILL STALL
AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. ALOFT...MODELS ATTEMPT TO SLOW DOWN AND
EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS ARE BOTH IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT.
THIS...COMBINED WITH THE STALLED OUT SFC FRONT...WOULD ORDINARILY
POSE FLOODING CONCERNS. HOWEVER...RIGHT NOW...WE DO NOT SEE ANY
PROLONGED DEEP MOISTURE REGIME. THEREFORE...WILL OF COURSE KEEP
POPS GOING THROUGH THE EXTENDED. PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO GO AROUND
ALONG WITH A CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL PATTERN.

EXT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A
MULTI-LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL PREVAIL...WITH HEIGHT
VALUES ON THE ELEVATED SIDE. THIS EQUATES TO A WARM AND MOIST
PATTERN.


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      63  85  65  86 /  30  40  20  40
CLARKSVILLE    65  86  64  85 /  30  30  20  40
CROSSVILLE     61  78  62  78 /  40  50  20  40
COLUMBIA       64  85  65  86 /  40  40  20  40
LAWRENCEBURG   64  84  64  84 /  40  40  20  40
WAVERLY        65  86  65  85 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 272030
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. TODAY`S
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AMPLIFIED A BIT BY A SERIES OF IMPULSES MOVING
WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TONIGHT...THE BETTER MOISTURE
AXIS WILL SHIFT AND MOVE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HRRR SHOWS A RATHER
WIDESPREAD SURGE OF MOISTURE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS. THE DEGREE OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED
OVERNIGHT. THUS...POPS WILL BE HELD DOWN INTO THE 30-50 PERCENT
RANGE FOR TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WISE...WE ARE ONLY UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE. AS FOR FOG POTENTIAL...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL
DROP TO BELOW 1F FOR MANY AREAS. ALSO...NUMERICAL DATA SHOWING
SOME LOW VSBY CATS FOR LATE TONIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE
SOME PATCHY FOG FOR THE 06Z-13Z TIME FRAME.

ON THURSDAY...18Z CAP EROSION LOOKS PRONOUNCED ONCE AGAIN. MOISTURE
LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL INCLUDE LOW
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY AFT AND INTO THE EVE.

CAPES LOOK A LITTLE STRONGER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS IMPULSES ALOFT
COME MORE INTO PLAY. AT THAT TIME...STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
BE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ENABLE A COLD
FRONT TO GAIN SOME SOUTHEASTWARD MOMENTUM TOWARD OUR AREA.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS WE MOVE TOWARD
THIS WEEKEND. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
APPROACH BY THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

IN THE EXT FCST...ONCE THE FRONT REACHES OUR AREA...IT WILL STALL
AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. ALOFT...MODELS ATTEMPT TO SLOW DOWN AND
EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS ARE BOTH IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT.
THIS...COMBINED WITH THE STALLED OUT SFC FRONT...WOULD ORDINARILY
POSE FLOODING CONCERNS. HOWEVER...RIGHT NOW...WE DO NOT SEE ANY
PROLONGED DEEP MOISTURE REGIME. THEREFORE...WILL OF COURSE KEEP
POPS GOING THROUGH THE EXTENDED. PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO GO AROUND
ALONG WITH A CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL PATTERN.

EXT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A
MULTI-LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL PREVAIL...WITH HEIGHT
VALUES ON THE ELEVATED SIDE. THIS EQUATES TO A WARM AND MOIST
PATTERN.


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      63  85  65  86 /  30  40  20  40
CLARKSVILLE    65  86  64  85 /  30  30  20  40
CROSSVILLE     61  78  62  78 /  40  50  20  40
COLUMBIA       64  85  65  86 /  40  40  20  40
LAWRENCEBURG   64  84  64  84 /  40  40  20  40
WAVERLY        65  86  65  85 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KMEG 272003
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
303 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WE REMAIN IN A VERY MESSY PATTERN WHEREIN THE SMALLEST OF FEATURES
PLAY BIG ROLES IN THE STRENGTH OF STORMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AND OUR LAWN AND
GARDENS WATERED. HOWEVER IT DOES COME WITH A PRICE...SEE BROOKLAND
ARKANSAS FOR AN EXAMPLE. HEAVY RAIN...UP TO THREE
INCHES...PRODUCED QUITE A BIT OF FLASH FLOODING THERE TODAY.

NOT A LOT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER TOMORROW AND
FRIDAY...BUT OVER THE WEEKEND...A BROAD TROUGH WILL SHIFT OUT OF
THE PLAINS RESULTING IN THICKNESS FALLS...AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD
BE SOLIDLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE. EXPECT LOW TO MIDDLE 80S
EACH DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.

AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TOMORROW AND
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICTOBURSTS WILL INCREASE. PW`S
WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES SO THE THREAT OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE...IF NOT INCREASE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STRENGTHENING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. STORMS SHOULD
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SUBTILE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
THE MEAN FLOW WILL PLAY MAJOR ROLES IN PRECIPITATION EACH
PERIOD...MUCH LIKE WE SAW YESTERDAY AND TODAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE A CUTOFF LOW PARKED NEAR OR JUST
WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK...IF THIS SCENARIO
PANS OUT...WE MAY NEED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY DURING THE
PERIOD...BUT READINGS SHOULD STILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

30

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

SITES EXPECTED TO SEE PLENTY OF WEATHER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
CONVECTION INITIALLY AND THEN LOWER CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
TUP AND MKL WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR/MVFR VSBY. THIS EVENING SKIES WILL
CLEAR ALLOWING FOR STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP. WORST CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT JBR AND MKL WITH BORDER LINE VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BY
SUNRISE. HOPEFUL THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL
SITES BEFORE THE END OF THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
6-10 KTS OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

JAB


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 272003
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
303 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WE REMAIN IN A VERY MESSY PATTERN WHEREIN THE SMALLEST OF FEATURES
PLAY BIG ROLES IN THE STRENGTH OF STORMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AND OUR LAWN AND
GARDENS WATERED. HOWEVER IT DOES COME WITH A PRICE...SEE BROOKLAND
ARKANSAS FOR AN EXAMPLE. HEAVY RAIN...UP TO THREE
INCHES...PRODUCED QUITE A BIT OF FLASH FLOODING THERE TODAY.

NOT A LOT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER TOMORROW AND
FRIDAY...BUT OVER THE WEEKEND...A BROAD TROUGH WILL SHIFT OUT OF
THE PLAINS RESULTING IN THICKNESS FALLS...AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD
BE SOLIDLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE. EXPECT LOW TO MIDDLE 80S
EACH DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.

AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TOMORROW AND
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICTOBURSTS WILL INCREASE. PW`S
WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES SO THE THREAT OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE...IF NOT INCREASE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STRENGTHENING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. STORMS SHOULD
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SUBTILE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
THE MEAN FLOW WILL PLAY MAJOR ROLES IN PRECIPITATION EACH
PERIOD...MUCH LIKE WE SAW YESTERDAY AND TODAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE A CUTOFF LOW PARKED NEAR OR JUST
WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK...IF THIS SCENARIO
PANS OUT...WE MAY NEED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY DURING THE
PERIOD...BUT READINGS SHOULD STILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

30

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

SITES EXPECTED TO SEE PLENTY OF WEATHER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
CONVECTION INITIALLY AND THEN LOWER CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
TUP AND MKL WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR/MVFR VSBY. THIS EVENING SKIES WILL
CLEAR ALLOWING FOR STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP. WORST CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT JBR AND MKL WITH BORDER LINE VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BY
SUNRISE. HOPEFUL THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL
SITES BEFORE THE END OF THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
6-10 KTS OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

JAB


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 272003
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
303 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WE REMAIN IN A VERY MESSY PATTERN WHEREIN THE SMALLEST OF FEATURES
PLAY BIG ROLES IN THE STRENGTH OF STORMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AND OUR LAWN AND
GARDENS WATERED. HOWEVER IT DOES COME WITH A PRICE...SEE BROOKLAND
ARKANSAS FOR AN EXAMPLE. HEAVY RAIN...UP TO THREE
INCHES...PRODUCED QUITE A BIT OF FLASH FLOODING THERE TODAY.

NOT A LOT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER TOMORROW AND
FRIDAY...BUT OVER THE WEEKEND...A BROAD TROUGH WILL SHIFT OUT OF
THE PLAINS RESULTING IN THICKNESS FALLS...AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD
BE SOLIDLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE. EXPECT LOW TO MIDDLE 80S
EACH DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.

AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TOMORROW AND
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICTOBURSTS WILL INCREASE. PW`S
WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES SO THE THREAT OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE...IF NOT INCREASE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STRENGTHENING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. STORMS SHOULD
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SUBTILE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
THE MEAN FLOW WILL PLAY MAJOR ROLES IN PRECIPITATION EACH
PERIOD...MUCH LIKE WE SAW YESTERDAY AND TODAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE A CUTOFF LOW PARKED NEAR OR JUST
WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK...IF THIS SCENARIO
PANS OUT...WE MAY NEED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY DURING THE
PERIOD...BUT READINGS SHOULD STILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

30

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

SITES EXPECTED TO SEE PLENTY OF WEATHER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
CONVECTION INITIALLY AND THEN LOWER CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
TUP AND MKL WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR/MVFR VSBY. THIS EVENING SKIES WILL
CLEAR ALLOWING FOR STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP. WORST CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT JBR AND MKL WITH BORDER LINE VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BY
SUNRISE. HOPEFUL THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL
SITES BEFORE THE END OF THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
6-10 KTS OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

JAB


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 272003
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
303 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WE REMAIN IN A VERY MESSY PATTERN WHEREIN THE SMALLEST OF FEATURES
PLAY BIG ROLES IN THE STRENGTH OF STORMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AND OUR LAWN AND
GARDENS WATERED. HOWEVER IT DOES COME WITH A PRICE...SEE BROOKLAND
ARKANSAS FOR AN EXAMPLE. HEAVY RAIN...UP TO THREE
INCHES...PRODUCED QUITE A BIT OF FLASH FLOODING THERE TODAY.

NOT A LOT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER TOMORROW AND
FRIDAY...BUT OVER THE WEEKEND...A BROAD TROUGH WILL SHIFT OUT OF
THE PLAINS RESULTING IN THICKNESS FALLS...AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD
BE SOLIDLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE. EXPECT LOW TO MIDDLE 80S
EACH DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.

AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TOMORROW AND
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICTOBURSTS WILL INCREASE. PW`S
WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES SO THE THREAT OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE...IF NOT INCREASE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STRENGTHENING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. STORMS SHOULD
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SUBTILE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
THE MEAN FLOW WILL PLAY MAJOR ROLES IN PRECIPITATION EACH
PERIOD...MUCH LIKE WE SAW YESTERDAY AND TODAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE A CUTOFF LOW PARKED NEAR OR JUST
WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK...IF THIS SCENARIO
PANS OUT...WE MAY NEED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY DURING THE
PERIOD...BUT READINGS SHOULD STILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

30

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

SITES EXPECTED TO SEE PLENTY OF WEATHER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
CONVECTION INITIALLY AND THEN LOWER CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
TUP AND MKL WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR/MVFR VSBY. THIS EVENING SKIES WILL
CLEAR ALLOWING FOR STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP. WORST CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT JBR AND MKL WITH BORDER LINE VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BY
SUNRISE. HOPEFUL THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL
SITES BEFORE THE END OF THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
6-10 KTS OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

JAB


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 271916
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
316 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...AIR-MASS ACROSS THE
REGION IS QUITE DRY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEY WITH PWS
NEAR 1 INCH...HOWEVER...INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER THE PLATEAU INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF CONVECTION.
THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING. DUE TO THE DRIER AIR OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER
MISSISSIPPI...MOVES EAST NORTHEASTWARD. THIS AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

FOR THURSDAY...AIRMASS WILL HAVE MOISTEN AREA-WIDE. BESIDES
TOPOGRAPHIC FORCING...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC LIFT OVER THE
AREA. WILL HAVE HIGHEST CHANCES OF STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE CHANCES LOW.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. THERE IS
LITTLE TO NO LIFT INVOLVED WITH THESE STORMS...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
IS LIMITED...SO EXPECT MINOR CONVECTION WITH VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR
ANYTHING SEVERE. SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AROUND
SUNRISE. LIFT AND WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE WEAK...SO EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM TO BE SHORT LIVED.

LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO FORM OVER THE TN VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SLOWLY STRENGTHENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW OVER
THE AREA WILL AGAIN SET UP FROM THE SOUTH...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD LINGER IN TO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME ON COVERAGE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW STARTS TO MOVE
EAST...TAKING OUR AREA OUT OF THE MOISTURE FED SOUTHERN
FLOW...LIMITING ANY RAIN OR THUNDER TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH VERY
LITTLE CHANGE DAY TO DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             66  82  66  85 /  50  50  20  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  81  65  83 /  20  30  20  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       64  81  64  83 /  30  40  20  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              62  82  63  82 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 271916
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
316 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...AIR-MASS ACROSS THE
REGION IS QUITE DRY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEY WITH PWS
NEAR 1 INCH...HOWEVER...INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER THE PLATEAU INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF CONVECTION.
THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING. DUE TO THE DRIER AIR OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER
MISSISSIPPI...MOVES EAST NORTHEASTWARD. THIS AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

FOR THURSDAY...AIRMASS WILL HAVE MOISTEN AREA-WIDE. BESIDES
TOPOGRAPHIC FORCING...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC LIFT OVER THE
AREA. WILL HAVE HIGHEST CHANCES OF STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE CHANCES LOW.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. THERE IS
LITTLE TO NO LIFT INVOLVED WITH THESE STORMS...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
IS LIMITED...SO EXPECT MINOR CONVECTION WITH VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR
ANYTHING SEVERE. SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AROUND
SUNRISE. LIFT AND WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE WEAK...SO EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM TO BE SHORT LIVED.

LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO FORM OVER THE TN VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SLOWLY STRENGTHENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW OVER
THE AREA WILL AGAIN SET UP FROM THE SOUTH...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD LINGER IN TO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME ON COVERAGE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW STARTS TO MOVE
EAST...TAKING OUR AREA OUT OF THE MOISTURE FED SOUTHERN
FLOW...LIMITING ANY RAIN OR THUNDER TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH VERY
LITTLE CHANGE DAY TO DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             66  82  66  85 /  50  50  20  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  81  65  83 /  20  30  20  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       64  81  64  83 /  30  40  20  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              62  82  63  82 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 271916
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
316 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...AIR-MASS ACROSS THE
REGION IS QUITE DRY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEY WITH PWS
NEAR 1 INCH...HOWEVER...INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER THE PLATEAU INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF CONVECTION.
THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING. DUE TO THE DRIER AIR OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER
MISSISSIPPI...MOVES EAST NORTHEASTWARD. THIS AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

FOR THURSDAY...AIRMASS WILL HAVE MOISTEN AREA-WIDE. BESIDES
TOPOGRAPHIC FORCING...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC LIFT OVER THE
AREA. WILL HAVE HIGHEST CHANCES OF STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE CHANCES LOW.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. THERE IS
LITTLE TO NO LIFT INVOLVED WITH THESE STORMS...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
IS LIMITED...SO EXPECT MINOR CONVECTION WITH VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR
ANYTHING SEVERE. SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AROUND
SUNRISE. LIFT AND WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE WEAK...SO EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM TO BE SHORT LIVED.

LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO FORM OVER THE TN VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SLOWLY STRENGTHENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW OVER
THE AREA WILL AGAIN SET UP FROM THE SOUTH...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD LINGER IN TO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME ON COVERAGE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW STARTS TO MOVE
EAST...TAKING OUR AREA OUT OF THE MOISTURE FED SOUTHERN
FLOW...LIMITING ANY RAIN OR THUNDER TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH VERY
LITTLE CHANGE DAY TO DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             66  82  66  85 /  50  50  20  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  81  65  83 /  20  30  20  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       64  81  64  83 /  30  40  20  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              62  82  63  82 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOHX 271744
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1244 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED TS THIS AFTERNOON HAS WARRANTED SEVERAL HOURS OF TEMPOS
AT EACH MID-STATE TERMINAL. SOME REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR
SHORT PERIODS WITH THE HEAVIER RAINS.

BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOG OVERNIGHT AS WINDS GO CALM AND
THOSE WHO SEE RAIN TODAY HAVE VISIBILITIES FALL OFF. IFR TO LIFR
AND LOWER CATEGORIES WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN
AND AROUND PASSING TS.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

UPDATE...FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION...

WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE AND ACTIVITY
UPSTREAM FROM THE MID-STATE...A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL BUMP IN DAYTIME
POPS LOOKS WARRANTED. AN EXPANDING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE ARK-MS STATE LINE LINE...CURRENTLY SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MS AND SOON...WEST TN...WILL CLOSE IN ON
OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON...
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF MIDDLE TN BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS TO THE WHOLE AREA. THE QUESTION IS...HOW
STRONG WILL THEY BECOME. DEW POINTS ARE FIRMLY IN THE UPPER 60S
AND THIS WILL NOT CHANGE...BUT THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER COULD
HAMPER MUCH OF THE DESTABILIZATION WE COULD REALIZE. STILL...
1500-2000 J/KG IS A LIKELY NUMBER FOR US. COUPLED WITH THE DRY AIR
THAT WAS BEING SHOWN ON THE 12Z OHX SOUNDING...THE WIND THREAT
WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.

I THINK THE BIGGER THING WE WILL NEED TO PAY ATTENTION TO IS THE
SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THESE STORMS. ALONG WITH THE DRY AIR
ALOFT...THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING IS ALSO SHOWING ONLY 13 KTS OF
FORWARD MOTION. WHILE OUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN MOST OF OUR SURROUNDING WFOS...RAIN RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN
HOUR WITH SLOW MOTION COULD PRODUCE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON THAT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KOHX 271744
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1244 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED TS THIS AFTERNOON HAS WARRANTED SEVERAL HOURS OF TEMPOS
AT EACH MID-STATE TERMINAL. SOME REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR
SHORT PERIODS WITH THE HEAVIER RAINS.

BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOG OVERNIGHT AS WINDS GO CALM AND
THOSE WHO SEE RAIN TODAY HAVE VISIBILITIES FALL OFF. IFR TO LIFR
AND LOWER CATEGORIES WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN
AND AROUND PASSING TS.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

UPDATE...FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION...

WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE AND ACTIVITY
UPSTREAM FROM THE MID-STATE...A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL BUMP IN DAYTIME
POPS LOOKS WARRANTED. AN EXPANDING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE ARK-MS STATE LINE LINE...CURRENTLY SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MS AND SOON...WEST TN...WILL CLOSE IN ON
OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON...
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF MIDDLE TN BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS TO THE WHOLE AREA. THE QUESTION IS...HOW
STRONG WILL THEY BECOME. DEW POINTS ARE FIRMLY IN THE UPPER 60S
AND THIS WILL NOT CHANGE...BUT THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER COULD
HAMPER MUCH OF THE DESTABILIZATION WE COULD REALIZE. STILL...
1500-2000 J/KG IS A LIKELY NUMBER FOR US. COUPLED WITH THE DRY AIR
THAT WAS BEING SHOWN ON THE 12Z OHX SOUNDING...THE WIND THREAT
WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.

I THINK THE BIGGER THING WE WILL NEED TO PAY ATTENTION TO IS THE
SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THESE STORMS. ALONG WITH THE DRY AIR
ALOFT...THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING IS ALSO SHOWING ONLY 13 KTS OF
FORWARD MOTION. WHILE OUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN MOST OF OUR SURROUNDING WFOS...RAIN RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN
HOUR WITH SLOW MOTION COULD PRODUCE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON THAT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KMRX 271726
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
126 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION HAS ERODED ACROSS THE TAF SITES
WITH LOW-CLOUDS GENERALLY MIXED OUT. AIR-MASS ACROSS THE AREA VARIES
GREATLY WITH CHA WITH PWS NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY THIS EVENING...WITH TRI
NEAR 1 INCH.

A SHORT-WAVE OVER THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING MID-STATE THEN MOVING INTO THE PLATEAU. HOWEVER...DO NOT
THINK CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT TO TYS AND TRI DUE TO THE DRY AIR-
MASS.

MODELS SHOW GRADUALLY INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ANTIPATED...BUT
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             83  65  86  67 /  40  30  50  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  84  65  84  66 /  20  30  30  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       82  66  84  65 /  20  30  30  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  61  82  62 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 271726
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
126 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION HAS ERODED ACROSS THE TAF SITES
WITH LOW-CLOUDS GENERALLY MIXED OUT. AIR-MASS ACROSS THE AREA VARIES
GREATLY WITH CHA WITH PWS NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY THIS EVENING...WITH TRI
NEAR 1 INCH.

A SHORT-WAVE OVER THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING MID-STATE THEN MOVING INTO THE PLATEAU. HOWEVER...DO NOT
THINK CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT TO TYS AND TRI DUE TO THE DRY AIR-
MASS.

MODELS SHOW GRADUALLY INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ANTIPATED...BUT
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             83  65  86  67 /  40  30  50  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  84  65  84  66 /  20  30  30  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       82  66  84  65 /  20  30  30  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  61  82  62 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 271726
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
126 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION HAS ERODED ACROSS THE TAF SITES
WITH LOW-CLOUDS GENERALLY MIXED OUT. AIR-MASS ACROSS THE AREA VARIES
GREATLY WITH CHA WITH PWS NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY THIS EVENING...WITH TRI
NEAR 1 INCH.

A SHORT-WAVE OVER THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING MID-STATE THEN MOVING INTO THE PLATEAU. HOWEVER...DO NOT
THINK CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT TO TYS AND TRI DUE TO THE DRY AIR-
MASS.

MODELS SHOW GRADUALLY INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ANTIPATED...BUT
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             83  65  86  67 /  40  30  50  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  84  65  84  66 /  20  30  30  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       82  66  84  65 /  20  30  30  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  61  82  62 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 271726
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
126 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION HAS ERODED ACROSS THE TAF SITES
WITH LOW-CLOUDS GENERALLY MIXED OUT. AIR-MASS ACROSS THE AREA VARIES
GREATLY WITH CHA WITH PWS NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY THIS EVENING...WITH TRI
NEAR 1 INCH.

A SHORT-WAVE OVER THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING MID-STATE THEN MOVING INTO THE PLATEAU. HOWEVER...DO NOT
THINK CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT TO TYS AND TRI DUE TO THE DRY AIR-
MASS.

MODELS SHOW GRADUALLY INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ANTIPATED...BUT
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             83  65  86  67 /  40  30  50  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  84  65  84  66 /  20  30  30  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       82  66  84  65 /  20  30  30  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  61  82  62 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 271719
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1219 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

UPDATE...
BUMPED UP POPS AND ENHANCED WORDING IN THE HWO FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. FREEZING LEVEL AND -20C HEIGHTS ARE 3-4K FEET LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY...SO HAIL COULD BE AN ISSUE.
ADDITIONALLY...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WET MICROBURSTS COULD BE AN ISSUE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAY BE A DEGREE OR SO TOO WARM AT AREAS WHERE RAIN IS
FALLING...BUT ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WOULD RESULT IN A QUICK
3-5 DEGREE RISE IN TEMPERATURES. WILL NOT MAKE ANY BIG
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. THE FOCUS FOR STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS
MORNING PLACES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THE FIRST LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND THE SECOND ONE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS.
AS OF 4 AM CDT...CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE 08Z HRRR INDICATE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TODAY. SHORT TERM
TRENDS SUGGEST OVERALL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS CLUSTERING WITH THE
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. AS OF THIS MORNING CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL AVERAGE
AT OR ABOVE 1.8 INCHES.

00Z MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE PREDOMINANT
TRIGGERING MECHANISM WOULD BE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING
REACHED.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS EACH DAY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

SITES EXPECTED TO SEE PLENTY OF WEATHER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
CONVECTION INITIALLY AND THEN LOWER CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
TUP AND MKL WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR/MVFR VSBY. THIS EVENING SKIES WILL
CLEAR ALLOWING FOR STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP. WORST CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT JBR AND MKL WITH BORDER LINE VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BY
SUNRISE. HOPEFUL THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL
SITES BEFORE THE END OF THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
6-10 KTS OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 271719
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1219 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

UPDATE...
BUMPED UP POPS AND ENHANCED WORDING IN THE HWO FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. FREEZING LEVEL AND -20C HEIGHTS ARE 3-4K FEET LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY...SO HAIL COULD BE AN ISSUE.
ADDITIONALLY...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WET MICROBURSTS COULD BE AN ISSUE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAY BE A DEGREE OR SO TOO WARM AT AREAS WHERE RAIN IS
FALLING...BUT ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WOULD RESULT IN A QUICK
3-5 DEGREE RISE IN TEMPERATURES. WILL NOT MAKE ANY BIG
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. THE FOCUS FOR STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS
MORNING PLACES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THE FIRST LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND THE SECOND ONE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS.
AS OF 4 AM CDT...CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE 08Z HRRR INDICATE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TODAY. SHORT TERM
TRENDS SUGGEST OVERALL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS CLUSTERING WITH THE
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. AS OF THIS MORNING CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL AVERAGE
AT OR ABOVE 1.8 INCHES.

00Z MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE PREDOMINANT
TRIGGERING MECHANISM WOULD BE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING
REACHED.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS EACH DAY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

SITES EXPECTED TO SEE PLENTY OF WEATHER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
CONVECTION INITIALLY AND THEN LOWER CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
TUP AND MKL WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR/MVFR VSBY. THIS EVENING SKIES WILL
CLEAR ALLOWING FOR STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP. WORST CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT JBR AND MKL WITH BORDER LINE VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BY
SUNRISE. HOPEFUL THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL
SITES BEFORE THE END OF THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
6-10 KTS OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 271719
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1219 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

UPDATE...
BUMPED UP POPS AND ENHANCED WORDING IN THE HWO FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. FREEZING LEVEL AND -20C HEIGHTS ARE 3-4K FEET LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY...SO HAIL COULD BE AN ISSUE.
ADDITIONALLY...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WET MICROBURSTS COULD BE AN ISSUE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAY BE A DEGREE OR SO TOO WARM AT AREAS WHERE RAIN IS
FALLING...BUT ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WOULD RESULT IN A QUICK
3-5 DEGREE RISE IN TEMPERATURES. WILL NOT MAKE ANY BIG
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. THE FOCUS FOR STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS
MORNING PLACES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THE FIRST LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND THE SECOND ONE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS.
AS OF 4 AM CDT...CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE 08Z HRRR INDICATE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TODAY. SHORT TERM
TRENDS SUGGEST OVERALL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS CLUSTERING WITH THE
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. AS OF THIS MORNING CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL AVERAGE
AT OR ABOVE 1.8 INCHES.

00Z MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE PREDOMINANT
TRIGGERING MECHANISM WOULD BE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING
REACHED.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS EACH DAY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

SITES EXPECTED TO SEE PLENTY OF WEATHER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
CONVECTION INITIALLY AND THEN LOWER CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
TUP AND MKL WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR/MVFR VSBY. THIS EVENING SKIES WILL
CLEAR ALLOWING FOR STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP. WORST CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT JBR AND MKL WITH BORDER LINE VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BY
SUNRISE. HOPEFUL THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL
SITES BEFORE THE END OF THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
6-10 KTS OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 271719
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1219 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

UPDATE...
BUMPED UP POPS AND ENHANCED WORDING IN THE HWO FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. FREEZING LEVEL AND -20C HEIGHTS ARE 3-4K FEET LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY...SO HAIL COULD BE AN ISSUE.
ADDITIONALLY...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WET MICROBURSTS COULD BE AN ISSUE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAY BE A DEGREE OR SO TOO WARM AT AREAS WHERE RAIN IS
FALLING...BUT ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WOULD RESULT IN A QUICK
3-5 DEGREE RISE IN TEMPERATURES. WILL NOT MAKE ANY BIG
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. THE FOCUS FOR STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS
MORNING PLACES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THE FIRST LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND THE SECOND ONE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS.
AS OF 4 AM CDT...CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE 08Z HRRR INDICATE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TODAY. SHORT TERM
TRENDS SUGGEST OVERALL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS CLUSTERING WITH THE
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. AS OF THIS MORNING CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL AVERAGE
AT OR ABOVE 1.8 INCHES.

00Z MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE PREDOMINANT
TRIGGERING MECHANISM WOULD BE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING
REACHED.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS EACH DAY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

SITES EXPECTED TO SEE PLENTY OF WEATHER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
CONVECTION INITIALLY AND THEN LOWER CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
TUP AND MKL WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR/MVFR VSBY. THIS EVENING SKIES WILL
CLEAR ALLOWING FOR STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP. WORST CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT JBR AND MKL WITH BORDER LINE VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BY
SUNRISE. HOPEFUL THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL
SITES BEFORE THE END OF THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
6-10 KTS OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 271529
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1029 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
BUMPED UP POPS AND ENHANCED WORDING IN THE HWO FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. FREEZING LEVEL AND -20C HEIGHTS ARE 3-4K FEET LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY...SO HAIL COULD BE AN ISSUE.
ADDITIONALLY...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WET MICROBURSTS COULD BE AN ISSUE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAY BE A DEGREE OR SO TOO WARM AT AREAS WHERE RAIN IS
FALLING...BUT ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WOULD RESULT IN A QUICK
3-5 DEGREE RISE IN TEMPERATURES. WILL NOT MAKE ANY BIG
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. THE FOCUS FOR STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS
MORNING PLACES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THE FIRST LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND THE SECOND ONE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS.
AS OF 4 AM CDT...CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE 08Z HRRR INDICATE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TODAY. SHORT TERM
TRENDS SUGGEST OVERALL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS CLUSTERING WITH THE
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. AS OF THIS MORNING CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL AVERAGE
AT OR ABOVE 1.8 INCHES.

00Z MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE PREDOMINANT
TRIGGERING MECHANISM WOULD BE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING
REACHED.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS EACH DAY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS

06Z NAM MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MEM SHOWED THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED BY 15Z...AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE THE 10Z HRRR MODEL DEVELOPS SCT TSRA OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCT COVERAGE... PROBABLY BEST TO HOLD OFF ON
TEMPOS UNTIL A CONVECTIVE FOCAL POINTS BECOME MORE APPARENT LATER
THIS MORNING.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WITH EXIT OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND REDUCED DAYTIME
HEATING.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 271529
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1029 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
BUMPED UP POPS AND ENHANCED WORDING IN THE HWO FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. FREEZING LEVEL AND -20C HEIGHTS ARE 3-4K FEET LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY...SO HAIL COULD BE AN ISSUE.
ADDITIONALLY...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WET MICROBURSTS COULD BE AN ISSUE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAY BE A DEGREE OR SO TOO WARM AT AREAS WHERE RAIN IS
FALLING...BUT ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WOULD RESULT IN A QUICK
3-5 DEGREE RISE IN TEMPERATURES. WILL NOT MAKE ANY BIG
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. THE FOCUS FOR STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS
MORNING PLACES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THE FIRST LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND THE SECOND ONE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS.
AS OF 4 AM CDT...CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE 08Z HRRR INDICATE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TODAY. SHORT TERM
TRENDS SUGGEST OVERALL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS CLUSTERING WITH THE
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. AS OF THIS MORNING CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL AVERAGE
AT OR ABOVE 1.8 INCHES.

00Z MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE PREDOMINANT
TRIGGERING MECHANISM WOULD BE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING
REACHED.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS EACH DAY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS

06Z NAM MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MEM SHOWED THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED BY 15Z...AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE THE 10Z HRRR MODEL DEVELOPS SCT TSRA OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCT COVERAGE... PROBABLY BEST TO HOLD OFF ON
TEMPOS UNTIL A CONVECTIVE FOCAL POINTS BECOME MORE APPARENT LATER
THIS MORNING.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WITH EXIT OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND REDUCED DAYTIME
HEATING.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 271529
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1029 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
BUMPED UP POPS AND ENHANCED WORDING IN THE HWO FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. FREEZING LEVEL AND -20C HEIGHTS ARE 3-4K FEET LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY...SO HAIL COULD BE AN ISSUE.
ADDITIONALLY...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WET MICROBURSTS COULD BE AN ISSUE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAY BE A DEGREE OR SO TOO WARM AT AREAS WHERE RAIN IS
FALLING...BUT ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WOULD RESULT IN A QUICK
3-5 DEGREE RISE IN TEMPERATURES. WILL NOT MAKE ANY BIG
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. THE FOCUS FOR STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS
MORNING PLACES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THE FIRST LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND THE SECOND ONE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS.
AS OF 4 AM CDT...CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE 08Z HRRR INDICATE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TODAY. SHORT TERM
TRENDS SUGGEST OVERALL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS CLUSTERING WITH THE
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. AS OF THIS MORNING CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL AVERAGE
AT OR ABOVE 1.8 INCHES.

00Z MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE PREDOMINANT
TRIGGERING MECHANISM WOULD BE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING
REACHED.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS EACH DAY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS

06Z NAM MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MEM SHOWED THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED BY 15Z...AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE THE 10Z HRRR MODEL DEVELOPS SCT TSRA OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCT COVERAGE... PROBABLY BEST TO HOLD OFF ON
TEMPOS UNTIL A CONVECTIVE FOCAL POINTS BECOME MORE APPARENT LATER
THIS MORNING.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WITH EXIT OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND REDUCED DAYTIME
HEATING.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 271529
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1029 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
BUMPED UP POPS AND ENHANCED WORDING IN THE HWO FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. FREEZING LEVEL AND -20C HEIGHTS ARE 3-4K FEET LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY...SO HAIL COULD BE AN ISSUE.
ADDITIONALLY...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WET MICROBURSTS COULD BE AN ISSUE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAY BE A DEGREE OR SO TOO WARM AT AREAS WHERE RAIN IS
FALLING...BUT ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WOULD RESULT IN A QUICK
3-5 DEGREE RISE IN TEMPERATURES. WILL NOT MAKE ANY BIG
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. THE FOCUS FOR STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS
MORNING PLACES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THE FIRST LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND THE SECOND ONE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS.
AS OF 4 AM CDT...CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE 08Z HRRR INDICATE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TODAY. SHORT TERM
TRENDS SUGGEST OVERALL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS CLUSTERING WITH THE
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. AS OF THIS MORNING CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL AVERAGE
AT OR ABOVE 1.8 INCHES.

00Z MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE PREDOMINANT
TRIGGERING MECHANISM WOULD BE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING
REACHED.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS EACH DAY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS

06Z NAM MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MEM SHOWED THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED BY 15Z...AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE THE 10Z HRRR MODEL DEVELOPS SCT TSRA OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCT COVERAGE... PROBABLY BEST TO HOLD OFF ON
TEMPOS UNTIL A CONVECTIVE FOCAL POINTS BECOME MORE APPARENT LATER
THIS MORNING.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WITH EXIT OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND REDUCED DAYTIME
HEATING.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 271529
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1029 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
BUMPED UP POPS AND ENHANCED WORDING IN THE HWO FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. FREEZING LEVEL AND -20C HEIGHTS ARE 3-4K FEET LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY...SO HAIL COULD BE AN ISSUE.
ADDITIONALLY...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WET MICROBURSTS COULD BE AN ISSUE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAY BE A DEGREE OR SO TOO WARM AT AREAS WHERE RAIN IS
FALLING...BUT ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WOULD RESULT IN A QUICK
3-5 DEGREE RISE IN TEMPERATURES. WILL NOT MAKE ANY BIG
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. THE FOCUS FOR STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS
MORNING PLACES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THE FIRST LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND THE SECOND ONE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS.
AS OF 4 AM CDT...CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE 08Z HRRR INDICATE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TODAY. SHORT TERM
TRENDS SUGGEST OVERALL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS CLUSTERING WITH THE
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. AS OF THIS MORNING CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL AVERAGE
AT OR ABOVE 1.8 INCHES.

00Z MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE PREDOMINANT
TRIGGERING MECHANISM WOULD BE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING
REACHED.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS EACH DAY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS

06Z NAM MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MEM SHOWED THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED BY 15Z...AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE THE 10Z HRRR MODEL DEVELOPS SCT TSRA OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCT COVERAGE... PROBABLY BEST TO HOLD OFF ON
TEMPOS UNTIL A CONVECTIVE FOCAL POINTS BECOME MORE APPARENT LATER
THIS MORNING.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WITH EXIT OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND REDUCED DAYTIME
HEATING.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 271448
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1048 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...BNA 12Z SOUNDING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA
SHOW A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION THIS MORNING. THE INVERSION IS KEEPING
THE LOW-CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THE INVERSION MIXING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY.

A SHORT-WAVE OVER THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING MID-STATE THEN MOVING INTO THE PLATEAU. HOWEVER...MODELS
ALSO SHOW THE AIR-MASS MOIST OVER THE PLATEAU...BUT MUCH DRIER
FARTHER EAST TOWARD TYS AND ESPECIALLY TRI. DO NOT THINK CONVECTION
WILL MAKE IT MUCH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEY.

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST HIGHS DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             83  65  86  67 /  40  30  50  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  84  65  84  66 /  20  30  30  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       82  66  84  65 /  20  30  30  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  61  82  62 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 271448
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1048 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...BNA 12Z SOUNDING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA
SHOW A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION THIS MORNING. THE INVERSION IS KEEPING
THE LOW-CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THE INVERSION MIXING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY.

A SHORT-WAVE OVER THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING MID-STATE THEN MOVING INTO THE PLATEAU. HOWEVER...MODELS
ALSO SHOW THE AIR-MASS MOIST OVER THE PLATEAU...BUT MUCH DRIER
FARTHER EAST TOWARD TYS AND ESPECIALLY TRI. DO NOT THINK CONVECTION
WILL MAKE IT MUCH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEY.

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST HIGHS DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             83  65  86  67 /  40  30  50  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  84  65  84  66 /  20  30  30  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       82  66  84  65 /  20  30  30  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  61  82  62 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 271448
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1048 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...BNA 12Z SOUNDING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA
SHOW A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION THIS MORNING. THE INVERSION IS KEEPING
THE LOW-CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THE INVERSION MIXING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY.

A SHORT-WAVE OVER THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING MID-STATE THEN MOVING INTO THE PLATEAU. HOWEVER...MODELS
ALSO SHOW THE AIR-MASS MOIST OVER THE PLATEAU...BUT MUCH DRIER
FARTHER EAST TOWARD TYS AND ESPECIALLY TRI. DO NOT THINK CONVECTION
WILL MAKE IT MUCH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEY.

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST HIGHS DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             83  65  86  67 /  40  30  50  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  84  65  84  66 /  20  30  30  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       82  66  84  65 /  20  30  30  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  61  82  62 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 271448
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1048 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...BNA 12Z SOUNDING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA
SHOW A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION THIS MORNING. THE INVERSION IS KEEPING
THE LOW-CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THE INVERSION MIXING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY.

A SHORT-WAVE OVER THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING MID-STATE THEN MOVING INTO THE PLATEAU. HOWEVER...MODELS
ALSO SHOW THE AIR-MASS MOIST OVER THE PLATEAU...BUT MUCH DRIER
FARTHER EAST TOWARD TYS AND ESPECIALLY TRI. DO NOT THINK CONVECTION
WILL MAKE IT MUCH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEY.

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST HIGHS DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             83  65  86  67 /  40  30  50  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  84  65  84  66 /  20  30  30  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       82  66  84  65 /  20  30  30  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  61  82  62 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 271448
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1048 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...BNA 12Z SOUNDING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA
SHOW A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION THIS MORNING. THE INVERSION IS KEEPING
THE LOW-CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THE INVERSION MIXING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY.

A SHORT-WAVE OVER THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING MID-STATE THEN MOVING INTO THE PLATEAU. HOWEVER...MODELS
ALSO SHOW THE AIR-MASS MOIST OVER THE PLATEAU...BUT MUCH DRIER
FARTHER EAST TOWARD TYS AND ESPECIALLY TRI. DO NOT THINK CONVECTION
WILL MAKE IT MUCH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEY.

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST HIGHS DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             83  65  86  67 /  40  30  50  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  84  65  84  66 /  20  30  30  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       82  66  84  65 /  20  30  30  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  61  82  62 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOHX 271411
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
911 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE AND ACTIVITY
UPSTREAM FROM THE MID-STATE...A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL BUMP IN DAYTIME
POPS LOOKS WARRANTED. AN EXPANDING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE ARK-MS STATE LINE LINE...CURRENTLY SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MS AND SOON...WEST TN...WILL CLOSE IN ON
OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON...
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF MIDDLE TN BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS TO THE WHOLE AREA. THE QUESTION IS...HOW
STRONG WILL THEY BECOME. DEW POINTS ARE FIRMLY IN THE UPPER 60S
AND THIS WILL NOT CHANGE...BUT THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER COULD
HAMPER MUCH OF THE DESTABILIZATION WE COULD REALIZE. STILL...
1500-2000 J/KG IS A LIKELY NUMBER FOR US. COUPLED WITH THE DRY AIR
THAT WAS BEING SHOWN ON THE 12Z OHX SOUNDING...THE WIND THREAT
WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.

I THINK THE BIGGER THING WE WILL NEED TO PAY ATTENTION TO IS THE
SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THESE STORMS. ALONG WITH THE DRY AIR
ALOFT...THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING IS ALSO SHOWING ONLY 13 KTS OF
FORWARD MOTION. WHILE OUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN MOST OF OUR SURROUNDING WFOS...RAIN RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN
HOUR WITH SLOW MOTION COULD PRODUCE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON THAT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS DOWN THROUGH WESTERN MISSOURI INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA WITH CONVECTION FIRING IN MISSOURI THIS MORNING ALONG
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR WITH ANOTHER COMPLEX DOWN IN LOUISIANA.
MODELS TAKE MISSOURI CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS KEEPING IT
WELL NORTH OF THE MID STATE. NEW DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION TAKES
PLACE IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI AFTER 14Z AND EXPANDS NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN TENNESSEE AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING. AROUND 18Z SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BREAK OUT ALONG INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR
AND BEGINS TO WORK EASTWARD WHILE NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS
WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND BACK TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ALL IN ALL LOOKING FOR LIFR CEILINGS AT TIMES DURING THE DAY WITH
BEST SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES AT TERMINALS FROM ABOUT 18Z THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KOHX 271411
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
911 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE AND ACTIVITY
UPSTREAM FROM THE MID-STATE...A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL BUMP IN DAYTIME
POPS LOOKS WARRANTED. AN EXPANDING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE ARK-MS STATE LINE LINE...CURRENTLY SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MS AND SOON...WEST TN...WILL CLOSE IN ON
OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON...
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF MIDDLE TN BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS TO THE WHOLE AREA. THE QUESTION IS...HOW
STRONG WILL THEY BECOME. DEW POINTS ARE FIRMLY IN THE UPPER 60S
AND THIS WILL NOT CHANGE...BUT THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER COULD
HAMPER MUCH OF THE DESTABILIZATION WE COULD REALIZE. STILL...
1500-2000 J/KG IS A LIKELY NUMBER FOR US. COUPLED WITH THE DRY AIR
THAT WAS BEING SHOWN ON THE 12Z OHX SOUNDING...THE WIND THREAT
WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.

I THINK THE BIGGER THING WE WILL NEED TO PAY ATTENTION TO IS THE
SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THESE STORMS. ALONG WITH THE DRY AIR
ALOFT...THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING IS ALSO SHOWING ONLY 13 KTS OF
FORWARD MOTION. WHILE OUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN MOST OF OUR SURROUNDING WFOS...RAIN RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN
HOUR WITH SLOW MOTION COULD PRODUCE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON THAT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS DOWN THROUGH WESTERN MISSOURI INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA WITH CONVECTION FIRING IN MISSOURI THIS MORNING ALONG
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR WITH ANOTHER COMPLEX DOWN IN LOUISIANA.
MODELS TAKE MISSOURI CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS KEEPING IT
WELL NORTH OF THE MID STATE. NEW DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION TAKES
PLACE IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI AFTER 14Z AND EXPANDS NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN TENNESSEE AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING. AROUND 18Z SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BREAK OUT ALONG INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR
AND BEGINS TO WORK EASTWARD WHILE NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS
WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND BACK TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ALL IN ALL LOOKING FOR LIFR CEILINGS AT TIMES DURING THE DAY WITH
BEST SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES AT TERMINALS FROM ABOUT 18Z THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KOHX 271411
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
911 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE AND ACTIVITY
UPSTREAM FROM THE MID-STATE...A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL BUMP IN DAYTIME
POPS LOOKS WARRANTED. AN EXPANDING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE ARK-MS STATE LINE LINE...CURRENTLY SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MS AND SOON...WEST TN...WILL CLOSE IN ON
OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON...
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF MIDDLE TN BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS TO THE WHOLE AREA. THE QUESTION IS...HOW
STRONG WILL THEY BECOME. DEW POINTS ARE FIRMLY IN THE UPPER 60S
AND THIS WILL NOT CHANGE...BUT THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER COULD
HAMPER MUCH OF THE DESTABILIZATION WE COULD REALIZE. STILL...
1500-2000 J/KG IS A LIKELY NUMBER FOR US. COUPLED WITH THE DRY AIR
THAT WAS BEING SHOWN ON THE 12Z OHX SOUNDING...THE WIND THREAT
WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.

I THINK THE BIGGER THING WE WILL NEED TO PAY ATTENTION TO IS THE
SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THESE STORMS. ALONG WITH THE DRY AIR
ALOFT...THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING IS ALSO SHOWING ONLY 13 KTS OF
FORWARD MOTION. WHILE OUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN MOST OF OUR SURROUNDING WFOS...RAIN RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN
HOUR WITH SLOW MOTION COULD PRODUCE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON THAT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS DOWN THROUGH WESTERN MISSOURI INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA WITH CONVECTION FIRING IN MISSOURI THIS MORNING ALONG
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR WITH ANOTHER COMPLEX DOWN IN LOUISIANA.
MODELS TAKE MISSOURI CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS KEEPING IT
WELL NORTH OF THE MID STATE. NEW DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION TAKES
PLACE IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI AFTER 14Z AND EXPANDS NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN TENNESSEE AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING. AROUND 18Z SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BREAK OUT ALONG INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR
AND BEGINS TO WORK EASTWARD WHILE NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS
WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND BACK TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ALL IN ALL LOOKING FOR LIFR CEILINGS AT TIMES DURING THE DAY WITH
BEST SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES AT TERMINALS FROM ABOUT 18Z THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27





000
FXUS64 KOHX 271153
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
653 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS DOWN THROUGH WESTERN MISSOURI INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA WITH CONVECTION FIRING IN MISSOURI THIS MORNING ALONG
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR WITH ANOTHER COMPLEX DOWN IN LOUISIANA.
MODELS TAKE MISSOURI CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS KEEPING IT
WELL NORTH OF THE MID STATE. NEW DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION TAKES
PLACE IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI AFTER 14Z AND EXPANDS NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN TENNESSEE AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING. AROUND 18Z SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BREAK OUT ALONG INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR
AND BEGINS TO WORK EASTWARD WHILE NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS
WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND BACK TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ALL IN ALL LOOKING FOR LIFR CEILINGS AT TIMES DURING THE DAY WITH
BEST SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES AT TERMINALS FROM ABOUT 18Z THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 271153
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
653 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS DOWN THROUGH WESTERN MISSOURI INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA WITH CONVECTION FIRING IN MISSOURI THIS MORNING ALONG
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR WITH ANOTHER COMPLEX DOWN IN LOUISIANA.
MODELS TAKE MISSOURI CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS KEEPING IT
WELL NORTH OF THE MID STATE. NEW DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION TAKES
PLACE IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI AFTER 14Z AND EXPANDS NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN TENNESSEE AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING. AROUND 18Z SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BREAK OUT ALONG INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR
AND BEGINS TO WORK EASTWARD WHILE NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS
WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND BACK TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ALL IN ALL LOOKING FOR LIFR CEILINGS AT TIMES DURING THE DAY WITH
BEST SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES AT TERMINALS FROM ABOUT 18Z THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KMEG 271149 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
649 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS
MORNING PLACES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THE FIRST LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND THE SECOND ONE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS.
AS OF 4 AM CDT...CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE 08Z HRRR INDICATE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TODAY. SHORT TERM
TRENDS SUGGEST OVERALL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS CLUSTERING WITH THE
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. AS OF THIS MORNING CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL AVERAGE
AT OR ABOVE 1.8 INCHES.

00Z MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE PREDOMINANT
TRIGGERING MECHANISM WOULD BE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING
REACHED.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS EACH DAY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

06Z NAM MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MEM SHOWED THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED BY 15Z...AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE THE 10Z HRRR MODEL DEVELOPS SCT TSRA OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCT COVERAGE... PROBABLY BEST TO HOLD OFF ON
TEMPOS UNTIL A CONVECTIVE FOCAL POINTS BECOME MORE APPARENT LATER
THIS MORNING.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WITH EXIT OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND REDUCED DAYTIME
HEATING.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 271149 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
649 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS
MORNING PLACES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THE FIRST LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND THE SECOND ONE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS.
AS OF 4 AM CDT...CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE 08Z HRRR INDICATE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TODAY. SHORT TERM
TRENDS SUGGEST OVERALL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS CLUSTERING WITH THE
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. AS OF THIS MORNING CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL AVERAGE
AT OR ABOVE 1.8 INCHES.

00Z MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE PREDOMINANT
TRIGGERING MECHANISM WOULD BE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING
REACHED.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS EACH DAY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

06Z NAM MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MEM SHOWED THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED BY 15Z...AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE THE 10Z HRRR MODEL DEVELOPS SCT TSRA OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCT COVERAGE... PROBABLY BEST TO HOLD OFF ON
TEMPOS UNTIL A CONVECTIVE FOCAL POINTS BECOME MORE APPARENT LATER
THIS MORNING.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WITH EXIT OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND REDUCED DAYTIME
HEATING.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 271149 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
649 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS
MORNING PLACES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THE FIRST LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND THE SECOND ONE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS.
AS OF 4 AM CDT...CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE 08Z HRRR INDICATE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TODAY. SHORT TERM
TRENDS SUGGEST OVERALL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS CLUSTERING WITH THE
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. AS OF THIS MORNING CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL AVERAGE
AT OR ABOVE 1.8 INCHES.

00Z MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE PREDOMINANT
TRIGGERING MECHANISM WOULD BE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING
REACHED.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS EACH DAY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

06Z NAM MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MEM SHOWED THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED BY 15Z...AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE THE 10Z HRRR MODEL DEVELOPS SCT TSRA OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCT COVERAGE... PROBABLY BEST TO HOLD OFF ON
TEMPOS UNTIL A CONVECTIVE FOCAL POINTS BECOME MORE APPARENT LATER
THIS MORNING.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WITH EXIT OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND REDUCED DAYTIME
HEATING.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 271149 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
649 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS
MORNING PLACES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THE FIRST LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND THE SECOND ONE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS.
AS OF 4 AM CDT...CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE 08Z HRRR INDICATE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TODAY. SHORT TERM
TRENDS SUGGEST OVERALL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS CLUSTERING WITH THE
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. AS OF THIS MORNING CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL AVERAGE
AT OR ABOVE 1.8 INCHES.

00Z MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE PREDOMINANT
TRIGGERING MECHANISM WOULD BE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING
REACHED.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS EACH DAY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

06Z NAM MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MEM SHOWED THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED BY 15Z...AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE THE 10Z HRRR MODEL DEVELOPS SCT TSRA OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCT COVERAGE... PROBABLY BEST TO HOLD OFF ON
TEMPOS UNTIL A CONVECTIVE FOCAL POINTS BECOME MORE APPARENT LATER
THIS MORNING.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WITH EXIT OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND REDUCED DAYTIME
HEATING.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 271149 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
649 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS
MORNING PLACES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THE FIRST LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND THE SECOND ONE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS.
AS OF 4 AM CDT...CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE 08Z HRRR INDICATE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TODAY. SHORT TERM
TRENDS SUGGEST OVERALL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS CLUSTERING WITH THE
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. AS OF THIS MORNING CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL AVERAGE
AT OR ABOVE 1.8 INCHES.

00Z MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE PREDOMINANT
TRIGGERING MECHANISM WOULD BE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING
REACHED.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS EACH DAY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

06Z NAM MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MEM SHOWED THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED BY 15Z...AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE THE 10Z HRRR MODEL DEVELOPS SCT TSRA OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCT COVERAGE... PROBABLY BEST TO HOLD OFF ON
TEMPOS UNTIL A CONVECTIVE FOCAL POINTS BECOME MORE APPARENT LATER
THIS MORNING.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WITH EXIT OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND REDUCED DAYTIME
HEATING.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 271149 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
649 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS
MORNING PLACES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THE FIRST LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND THE SECOND ONE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS.
AS OF 4 AM CDT...CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE 08Z HRRR INDICATE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TODAY. SHORT TERM
TRENDS SUGGEST OVERALL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS CLUSTERING WITH THE
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. AS OF THIS MORNING CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL AVERAGE
AT OR ABOVE 1.8 INCHES.

00Z MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE PREDOMINANT
TRIGGERING MECHANISM WOULD BE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING
REACHED.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS EACH DAY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

06Z NAM MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MEM SHOWED THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED BY 15Z...AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE THE 10Z HRRR MODEL DEVELOPS SCT TSRA OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCT COVERAGE... PROBABLY BEST TO HOLD OFF ON
TEMPOS UNTIL A CONVECTIVE FOCAL POINTS BECOME MORE APPARENT LATER
THIS MORNING.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WITH EXIT OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND REDUCED DAYTIME
HEATING.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 271138
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
738 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...THE DAY STARTS OUT WITH SOME CEILINGS AROUND THREE TO
FIVE THOUSAND FEET BUT MIXING SHOULD SCATTER THIS LAYER OUT BY
14-15Z. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM AROUND CHA
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BUT A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE TERMINALS FROM AROUND 22-04Z AS
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATE
IN THE PERIOD THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT AND HIGH END MVFR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS IN FOG.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 271138
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
738 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...THE DAY STARTS OUT WITH SOME CEILINGS AROUND THREE TO
FIVE THOUSAND FEET BUT MIXING SHOULD SCATTER THIS LAYER OUT BY
14-15Z. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM AROUND CHA
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BUT A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE TERMINALS FROM AROUND 22-04Z AS
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATE
IN THE PERIOD THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT AND HIGH END MVFR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS IN FOG.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 271138
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
738 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...THE DAY STARTS OUT WITH SOME CEILINGS AROUND THREE TO
FIVE THOUSAND FEET BUT MIXING SHOULD SCATTER THIS LAYER OUT BY
14-15Z. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM AROUND CHA
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BUT A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE TERMINALS FROM AROUND 22-04Z AS
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATE
IN THE PERIOD THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT AND HIGH END MVFR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS IN FOG.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 271138
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
738 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...THE DAY STARTS OUT WITH SOME CEILINGS AROUND THREE TO
FIVE THOUSAND FEET BUT MIXING SHOULD SCATTER THIS LAYER OUT BY
14-15Z. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM AROUND CHA
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BUT A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE TERMINALS FROM AROUND 22-04Z AS
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATE
IN THE PERIOD THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT AND HIGH END MVFR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS IN FOG.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 271138
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
738 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...THE DAY STARTS OUT WITH SOME CEILINGS AROUND THREE TO
FIVE THOUSAND FEET BUT MIXING SHOULD SCATTER THIS LAYER OUT BY
14-15Z. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM AROUND CHA
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BUT A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE TERMINALS FROM AROUND 22-04Z AS
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATE
IN THE PERIOD THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT AND HIGH END MVFR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS IN FOG.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 271138
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
738 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...THE DAY STARTS OUT WITH SOME CEILINGS AROUND THREE TO
FIVE THOUSAND FEET BUT MIXING SHOULD SCATTER THIS LAYER OUT BY
14-15Z. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM AROUND CHA
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BUT A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE TERMINALS FROM AROUND 22-04Z AS
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATE
IN THE PERIOD THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT AND HIGH END MVFR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS IN FOG.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMEG 270943
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
443 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS
MORNING PLACES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THE FIRST LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND THE SECOND ONE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS.
AS OF 4 AM CDT...CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE 08Z HRRR INDICATE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TODAY. SHORT TERM
TRENDS SUGGEST OVERALL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS CLUSTERING WITH THE
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. AS OF THIS MORNING CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL AVERAGE
AT OR ABOVE 1.8 INCHES.

00Z MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE PREDOMINANT
TRIGGERING MECHANISM WOULD BE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING
REACHED.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS EACH DAY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. SOME LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY AM...ESPECIALLY NEAR KTUP. LATEST DATA
INDICATING TSRA INITIATION MAY BE A LITTLE EARLIER SO MOVED UP
TIMING OF VCTS TO 16/17Z. LIGHT S/SSW WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING
TO ABOUT 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 270943
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
443 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS
MORNING PLACES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THE FIRST LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND THE SECOND ONE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS.
AS OF 4 AM CDT...CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE 08Z HRRR INDICATE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TODAY. SHORT TERM
TRENDS SUGGEST OVERALL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS CLUSTERING WITH THE
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. AS OF THIS MORNING CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL AVERAGE
AT OR ABOVE 1.8 INCHES.

00Z MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE PREDOMINANT
TRIGGERING MECHANISM WOULD BE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING
REACHED.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS EACH DAY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. SOME LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY AM...ESPECIALLY NEAR KTUP. LATEST DATA
INDICATING TSRA INITIATION MAY BE A LITTLE EARLIER SO MOVED UP
TIMING OF VCTS TO 16/17Z. LIGHT S/SSW WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING
TO ABOUT 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 270943
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
443 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS
MORNING PLACES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THE FIRST LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND THE SECOND ONE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS.
AS OF 4 AM CDT...CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE 08Z HRRR INDICATE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TODAY. SHORT TERM
TRENDS SUGGEST OVERALL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS CLUSTERING WITH THE
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. AS OF THIS MORNING CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL AVERAGE
AT OR ABOVE 1.8 INCHES.

00Z MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE PREDOMINANT
TRIGGERING MECHANISM WOULD BE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING
REACHED.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS EACH DAY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. SOME LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY AM...ESPECIALLY NEAR KTUP. LATEST DATA
INDICATING TSRA INITIATION MAY BE A LITTLE EARLIER SO MOVED UP
TIMING OF VCTS TO 16/17Z. LIGHT S/SSW WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING
TO ABOUT 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 270943
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
443 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS
MORNING PLACES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THE FIRST LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND THE SECOND ONE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS.
AS OF 4 AM CDT...CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE 08Z HRRR INDICATE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TODAY. SHORT TERM
TRENDS SUGGEST OVERALL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS CLUSTERING WITH THE
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. AS OF THIS MORNING CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL AVERAGE
AT OR ABOVE 1.8 INCHES.

00Z MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE PREDOMINANT
TRIGGERING MECHANISM WOULD BE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING
REACHED.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS EACH DAY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. SOME LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY AM...ESPECIALLY NEAR KTUP. LATEST DATA
INDICATING TSRA INITIATION MAY BE A LITTLE EARLIER SO MOVED UP
TIMING OF VCTS TO 16/17Z. LIGHT S/SSW WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING
TO ABOUT 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 270801
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
301 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS NO ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
MID STATE...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING ONLY SOME CIRRUS AT
PRESENT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS VICINITY WITH A FEW ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH GFS AND NAM MOS POPS ARE ON THE LOW
SIDE TODAY...BOTH HRRR AND 4KM NAM MODELS SHOW WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION DEVELOPING/SPREADING ACROSS OUR AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE ARKLAMISS WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST. THUS HAVE GONE ABOVE
GUIDANCE POPS FOR TODAY IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. FORECAST
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S COULD BE ON THE HIGH SIDE DUE TO
POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH SUNSHINE
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR A QUICK WARMUP AND WILL KEEP TEMPS AROUND
THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS. FCST SOUNDINGS TODAY INDICATE MLCAPE
RISING INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND
30 KTS...SO A FEW STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. SPC HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE MID
STATE IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.

CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
WITH ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT ON TAP TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
60S. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...WITH MIDDLE TENNESSEE RESIDING BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
JET TO OUR WEST AND AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BOTH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH COOL
DOWN SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. POPS LOOK TO BE HIGHEST ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. AS IS COMMON WHEN WE MOVE
INTO THE SUMMER SEASON...A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
PULSE/MULTICELL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS OUR AREA CONTINUES TO RESIDE IN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE BUT WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      86  66  87  67 /  50  30  40  20
CLARKSVILLE    84  66  85  66 /  50  30  30  20
CROSSVILLE     80  63  81  63 /  40  30  40  20
COLUMBIA       84  65  86  65 /  50  30  40  20
LAWRENCEBURG   82  65  84  66 /  50  30  40  20
WAVERLY        83  65  85  66 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER





000
FXUS64 KOHX 270801
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
301 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS NO ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
MID STATE...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING ONLY SOME CIRRUS AT
PRESENT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS VICINITY WITH A FEW ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH GFS AND NAM MOS POPS ARE ON THE LOW
SIDE TODAY...BOTH HRRR AND 4KM NAM MODELS SHOW WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION DEVELOPING/SPREADING ACROSS OUR AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE ARKLAMISS WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST. THUS HAVE GONE ABOVE
GUIDANCE POPS FOR TODAY IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. FORECAST
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S COULD BE ON THE HIGH SIDE DUE TO
POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH SUNSHINE
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR A QUICK WARMUP AND WILL KEEP TEMPS AROUND
THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS. FCST SOUNDINGS TODAY INDICATE MLCAPE
RISING INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND
30 KTS...SO A FEW STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. SPC HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE MID
STATE IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.

CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
WITH ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT ON TAP TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
60S. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...WITH MIDDLE TENNESSEE RESIDING BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
JET TO OUR WEST AND AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BOTH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH COOL
DOWN SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. POPS LOOK TO BE HIGHEST ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. AS IS COMMON WHEN WE MOVE
INTO THE SUMMER SEASON...A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
PULSE/MULTICELL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS OUR AREA CONTINUES TO RESIDE IN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE BUT WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      86  66  87  67 /  50  30  40  20
CLARKSVILLE    84  66  85  66 /  50  30  30  20
CROSSVILLE     80  63  81  63 /  40  30  40  20
COLUMBIA       84  65  86  65 /  50  30  40  20
LAWRENCEBURG   82  65  84  66 /  50  30  40  20
WAVERLY        83  65  85  66 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER






000
FXUS64 KMRX 270717
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MODELS INDICATE SOME DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE FOR A WHILE BEHIND THE WAVE WHICH BROUGHT A FEW SHOWERS
TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY. BY AFTERNOON SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY WILL BE REALIZED FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
VIEWING AREA. ACTUALLY TWEAKED POPS UP A BIT FOR THE EVENING WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION WITH A WEAK SHORT
WAVE FEATURE THAT MODELS BRING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE FIRST
PERIOD AND MAINLY SECOND PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. STAYED CLOSE TO
MAX/MIN GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... A RIDGE OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A MOIST S-SW
FLOW THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING ALOFT TO
PRODUCE ORGANIZED CONVECTION...SO WILL FAVOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS
IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS BOTH DAYS.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHICH BRINGS A FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THE
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE POSITION OF THE FRONT
ACROSS WV/KY ON SUNDAY MAY ENHANCE PRECIP COVERAGE INTO THE TN
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS. WILL HIGHLIGHT SUNDAY AS THE
DAY FOR THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES...WITH LIKELY POPS NORTH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR WITH THE ECMWF
PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT BACK TO
THE NORTH. GEFS MEMBERS SHOW A LARGE QPF SPREAD AS WELL. DUE TO
THESE UNCERTAINTIES...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             85  65  86  67 /  40  30  50  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  85  65  84  66 /  20  30  30  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       85  66  84  65 /  20  30  30  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  61  82  62 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 270717
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MODELS INDICATE SOME DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE FOR A WHILE BEHIND THE WAVE WHICH BROUGHT A FEW SHOWERS
TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY. BY AFTERNOON SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY WILL BE REALIZED FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
VIEWING AREA. ACTUALLY TWEAKED POPS UP A BIT FOR THE EVENING WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION WITH A WEAK SHORT
WAVE FEATURE THAT MODELS BRING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE FIRST
PERIOD AND MAINLY SECOND PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. STAYED CLOSE TO
MAX/MIN GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... A RIDGE OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A MOIST S-SW
FLOW THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING ALOFT TO
PRODUCE ORGANIZED CONVECTION...SO WILL FAVOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS
IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS BOTH DAYS.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHICH BRINGS A FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THE
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE POSITION OF THE FRONT
ACROSS WV/KY ON SUNDAY MAY ENHANCE PRECIP COVERAGE INTO THE TN
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS. WILL HIGHLIGHT SUNDAY AS THE
DAY FOR THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES...WITH LIKELY POPS NORTH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR WITH THE ECMWF
PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT BACK TO
THE NORTH. GEFS MEMBERS SHOW A LARGE QPF SPREAD AS WELL. DUE TO
THESE UNCERTAINTIES...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             85  65  86  67 /  40  30  50  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  85  65  84  66 /  20  30  30  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       85  66  84  65 /  20  30  30  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  61  82  62 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 270717
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MODELS INDICATE SOME DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE FOR A WHILE BEHIND THE WAVE WHICH BROUGHT A FEW SHOWERS
TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY. BY AFTERNOON SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY WILL BE REALIZED FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
VIEWING AREA. ACTUALLY TWEAKED POPS UP A BIT FOR THE EVENING WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION WITH A WEAK SHORT
WAVE FEATURE THAT MODELS BRING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE FIRST
PERIOD AND MAINLY SECOND PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. STAYED CLOSE TO
MAX/MIN GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... A RIDGE OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A MOIST S-SW
FLOW THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING ALOFT TO
PRODUCE ORGANIZED CONVECTION...SO WILL FAVOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS
IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS BOTH DAYS.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHICH BRINGS A FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THE
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE POSITION OF THE FRONT
ACROSS WV/KY ON SUNDAY MAY ENHANCE PRECIP COVERAGE INTO THE TN
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS. WILL HIGHLIGHT SUNDAY AS THE
DAY FOR THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES...WITH LIKELY POPS NORTH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR WITH THE ECMWF
PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT BACK TO
THE NORTH. GEFS MEMBERS SHOW A LARGE QPF SPREAD AS WELL. DUE TO
THESE UNCERTAINTIES...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             85  65  86  67 /  40  30  50  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  85  65  84  66 /  20  30  30  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       85  66  84  65 /  20  30  30  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  61  82  62 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 270717
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MODELS INDICATE SOME DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE FOR A WHILE BEHIND THE WAVE WHICH BROUGHT A FEW SHOWERS
TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY. BY AFTERNOON SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY WILL BE REALIZED FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
VIEWING AREA. ACTUALLY TWEAKED POPS UP A BIT FOR THE EVENING WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION WITH A WEAK SHORT
WAVE FEATURE THAT MODELS BRING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE FIRST
PERIOD AND MAINLY SECOND PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. STAYED CLOSE TO
MAX/MIN GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... A RIDGE OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A MOIST S-SW
FLOW THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING ALOFT TO
PRODUCE ORGANIZED CONVECTION...SO WILL FAVOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS
IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS BOTH DAYS.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHICH BRINGS A FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THE
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE POSITION OF THE FRONT
ACROSS WV/KY ON SUNDAY MAY ENHANCE PRECIP COVERAGE INTO THE TN
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS. WILL HIGHLIGHT SUNDAY AS THE
DAY FOR THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES...WITH LIKELY POPS NORTH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR WITH THE ECMWF
PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT BACK TO
THE NORTH. GEFS MEMBERS SHOW A LARGE QPF SPREAD AS WELL. DUE TO
THESE UNCERTAINTIES...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             85  65  86  67 /  40  30  50  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  85  65  84  66 /  20  30  30  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       85  66  84  65 /  20  30  30  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  61  82  62 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 270545
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
145 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...ATMOSPHERE DRIES A BIT BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE
KEEPING PRECIPITATION AT A MINIMUM THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE COULD PROVIDE NECESSARY LIFT IN BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE FOR A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
PERHAPS AT CHA OR TYS ALTHOUGH PROBABILITY A LITTLE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE THERE
COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG AT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 270545
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
145 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...ATMOSPHERE DRIES A BIT BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE
KEEPING PRECIPITATION AT A MINIMUM THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE COULD PROVIDE NECESSARY LIFT IN BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE FOR A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
PERHAPS AT CHA OR TYS ALTHOUGH PROBABILITY A LITTLE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE THERE
COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG AT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 270545
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
145 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...ATMOSPHERE DRIES A BIT BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE
KEEPING PRECIPITATION AT A MINIMUM THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE COULD PROVIDE NECESSARY LIFT IN BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE FOR A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
PERHAPS AT CHA OR TYS ALTHOUGH PROBABILITY A LITTLE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE THERE
COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG AT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 270545
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
145 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...ATMOSPHERE DRIES A BIT BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE
KEEPING PRECIPITATION AT A MINIMUM THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE COULD PROVIDE NECESSARY LIFT IN BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE FOR A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
PERHAPS AT CHA OR TYS ALTHOUGH PROBABILITY A LITTLE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE THERE
COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG AT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOHX 270455
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1155 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS AT CSV THROUGH 16Z, DUE
TO LOW CIGS AND BR, THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT BNA AND CKV TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR
CONDITIONS BY 09Z, DUE TO LOW CIGS AND BR, THEN IMPROVE BACK TO
VFR AFTER 16Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 270455
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1155 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS AT CSV THROUGH 16Z, DUE
TO LOW CIGS AND BR, THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT BNA AND CKV TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR
CONDITIONS BY 09Z, DUE TO LOW CIGS AND BR, THEN IMPROVE BACK TO
VFR AFTER 16Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 270455
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1155 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS AT CSV THROUGH 16Z, DUE
TO LOW CIGS AND BR, THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT BNA AND CKV TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR
CONDITIONS BY 09Z, DUE TO LOW CIGS AND BR, THEN IMPROVE BACK TO
VFR AFTER 16Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KMEG 270436
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1136 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

UPDATE...

A TRANQUIL WEATHER NIGHT THUS FAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. AROUND SUNRISE...HRRR SHOWS
CONVECTION THAT IS OCCURRING ACROSS MISSOURI INTO OKLAHOMA MAY BE
PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. ALSO THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED
STORM CLIP SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FROM CONVECTION THAT IS
MOVING ALONG THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA LINE. THUS WILL KEEP 20 POPS.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE WORKED AGAINST REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE 80S...THERE IS A LACK OF
ANY SURFACE BASED FOCAL POINT...OR TRIGGER...AND WE DO NOT HAVE
THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WE HAD YESTERDAY INTO LAST NIGHT.
THERMODYNAMICALLY...WE STILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES...HELPING TO BOOST INSTABILITY...BUT EVEN THAT
HASN`T PROVEN ENOUGH TO RESULT IN CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PROVIDING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY
LIMIT SHOWERS...BUT ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S ONCE AGAIN...SO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...A BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE PLAINS
STATES SETTING UP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AT LEAST ONE SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING THOROUGH THE MEAN
SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE OUT HIGHEST CHANCE
OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
NOTHING TO GET WORRIED ABOUT. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE WILL
SEE A SUMMERTIME-TYPE PATTERN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING EVERY PERIOD...MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. OUR WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY
WHEN AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE.

LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE PLAINS INCREASING OUR RAIN CHANCES AND BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK DONN 2-4 DEGREES.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS

VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. SOME LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY AM...ESPECIALLY NEAR KTUP. LATEST DATA
INDICATING TSRA INITIATION MAY BE A LITTLE EARLIER SO MOVED UP
TIMING OF VCTS TO 16/17Z. LIGHT S/SSW WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING
TO ABOUT 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 270436
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1136 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

UPDATE...

A TRANQUIL WEATHER NIGHT THUS FAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. AROUND SUNRISE...HRRR SHOWS
CONVECTION THAT IS OCCURRING ACROSS MISSOURI INTO OKLAHOMA MAY BE
PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. ALSO THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED
STORM CLIP SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FROM CONVECTION THAT IS
MOVING ALONG THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA LINE. THUS WILL KEEP 20 POPS.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE WORKED AGAINST REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE 80S...THERE IS A LACK OF
ANY SURFACE BASED FOCAL POINT...OR TRIGGER...AND WE DO NOT HAVE
THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WE HAD YESTERDAY INTO LAST NIGHT.
THERMODYNAMICALLY...WE STILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES...HELPING TO BOOST INSTABILITY...BUT EVEN THAT
HASN`T PROVEN ENOUGH TO RESULT IN CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PROVIDING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY
LIMIT SHOWERS...BUT ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S ONCE AGAIN...SO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...A BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE PLAINS
STATES SETTING UP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AT LEAST ONE SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING THOROUGH THE MEAN
SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE OUT HIGHEST CHANCE
OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
NOTHING TO GET WORRIED ABOUT. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE WILL
SEE A SUMMERTIME-TYPE PATTERN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING EVERY PERIOD...MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. OUR WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY
WHEN AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE.

LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE PLAINS INCREASING OUR RAIN CHANCES AND BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK DONN 2-4 DEGREES.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS

VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. SOME LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY AM...ESPECIALLY NEAR KTUP. LATEST DATA
INDICATING TSRA INITIATION MAY BE A LITTLE EARLIER SO MOVED UP
TIMING OF VCTS TO 16/17Z. LIGHT S/SSW WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING
TO ABOUT 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 270436
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1136 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

UPDATE...

A TRANQUIL WEATHER NIGHT THUS FAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. AROUND SUNRISE...HRRR SHOWS
CONVECTION THAT IS OCCURRING ACROSS MISSOURI INTO OKLAHOMA MAY BE
PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. ALSO THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED
STORM CLIP SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FROM CONVECTION THAT IS
MOVING ALONG THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA LINE. THUS WILL KEEP 20 POPS.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE WORKED AGAINST REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE 80S...THERE IS A LACK OF
ANY SURFACE BASED FOCAL POINT...OR TRIGGER...AND WE DO NOT HAVE
THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WE HAD YESTERDAY INTO LAST NIGHT.
THERMODYNAMICALLY...WE STILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES...HELPING TO BOOST INSTABILITY...BUT EVEN THAT
HASN`T PROVEN ENOUGH TO RESULT IN CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PROVIDING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY
LIMIT SHOWERS...BUT ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S ONCE AGAIN...SO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...A BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE PLAINS
STATES SETTING UP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AT LEAST ONE SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING THOROUGH THE MEAN
SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE OUT HIGHEST CHANCE
OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
NOTHING TO GET WORRIED ABOUT. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE WILL
SEE A SUMMERTIME-TYPE PATTERN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING EVERY PERIOD...MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. OUR WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY
WHEN AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE.

LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE PLAINS INCREASING OUR RAIN CHANCES AND BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK DONN 2-4 DEGREES.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS

VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. SOME LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY AM...ESPECIALLY NEAR KTUP. LATEST DATA
INDICATING TSRA INITIATION MAY BE A LITTLE EARLIER SO MOVED UP
TIMING OF VCTS TO 16/17Z. LIGHT S/SSW WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING
TO ABOUT 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 270255
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1055 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER UPDATE TO FURTHER LOWER RAIN CHANCES TO LOWER
CHANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BRIEFLY AFFECT EXTREME NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BEFORE
DECREASING AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER TONIGHT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 270255
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1055 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER UPDATE TO FURTHER LOWER RAIN CHANCES TO LOWER
CHANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BRIEFLY AFFECT EXTREME NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BEFORE
DECREASING AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER TONIGHT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 270255
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1055 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER UPDATE TO FURTHER LOWER RAIN CHANCES TO LOWER
CHANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BRIEFLY AFFECT EXTREME NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BEFORE
DECREASING AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER TONIGHT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD



000
FXUS64 KMEG 270244
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
944 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...

A TRANQUIL WEATHER NIGHT THUS FAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. AROUND SUNRISE...HRRR SHOWS
CONVECTION THAT IS OCCURRING ACROSS MISSOURI INTO OKLAHOMA MAY BE
PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. ALSO THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED
STORM CLIP SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FROM CONVECTION THAT IS
MOVING ALONG THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA LINE. THUS WILL KEEP 20 POPS.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE WORKED AGAINST REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE 80S...THERE IS A LACK OF
ANY SURFACE BASED FOCAL POINT...OR TRIGGER...AND WE DO NOT HAVE
THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WE HAD YESTERDAY INTO LAST NIGHT.
THERMODYNAMICALLY...WE STILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES...HELPING TO BOOST INSTABILITY...BUT EVEN THAT
HASN`T PROVEN ENOUGH TO RESULT IN CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PROVIDING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY
LIMIT SHOWERS...BUT ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S ONCE AGAIN...SO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...A BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE PLAINS
STATES SETTING UP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AT LEAST ONE SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING THOROUGH THE MEAN
SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE OUT HIGHEST CHANCE
OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
NOTHING TO GET WORRIED ABOUT. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE WILL
SEE A SUMMERTIME-TYPE PATTERN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING EVERY PERIOD...MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. OUR WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY
WHEN AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE.

LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE PLAINS INCREASING OUR RAIN CHANCES AND BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK DONN 2-4 DEGREES.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS

VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. SOME LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY AM ESPECIALLY NEAR KTUP. ISOLD-SCT AFTN
TSRAS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY SO INTRODUCED A VCTS AT
ALL SITES AT 27/21Z. SSW WINDS 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
ABOUT 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

SJM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 270244
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
944 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...

A TRANQUIL WEATHER NIGHT THUS FAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. AROUND SUNRISE...HRRR SHOWS
CONVECTION THAT IS OCCURRING ACROSS MISSOURI INTO OKLAHOMA MAY BE
PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. ALSO THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED
STORM CLIP SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FROM CONVECTION THAT IS
MOVING ALONG THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA LINE. THUS WILL KEEP 20 POPS.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE WORKED AGAINST REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE 80S...THERE IS A LACK OF
ANY SURFACE BASED FOCAL POINT...OR TRIGGER...AND WE DO NOT HAVE
THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WE HAD YESTERDAY INTO LAST NIGHT.
THERMODYNAMICALLY...WE STILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES...HELPING TO BOOST INSTABILITY...BUT EVEN THAT
HASN`T PROVEN ENOUGH TO RESULT IN CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PROVIDING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY
LIMIT SHOWERS...BUT ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S ONCE AGAIN...SO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...A BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE PLAINS
STATES SETTING UP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AT LEAST ONE SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING THOROUGH THE MEAN
SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE OUT HIGHEST CHANCE
OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
NOTHING TO GET WORRIED ABOUT. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE WILL
SEE A SUMMERTIME-TYPE PATTERN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING EVERY PERIOD...MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. OUR WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY
WHEN AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE.

LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE PLAINS INCREASING OUR RAIN CHANCES AND BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK DONN 2-4 DEGREES.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS

VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. SOME LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY AM ESPECIALLY NEAR KTUP. ISOLD-SCT AFTN
TSRAS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY SO INTRODUCED A VCTS AT
ALL SITES AT 27/21Z. SSW WINDS 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
ABOUT 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

SJM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 270036
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
836 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED RAPIDLY THIS
EVENING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PLATEAU AT
THIS TIME. HAVE REDUCED POPS DOWN TO MAINLY CHANCE. LARGE COMPLEX
IN GA MOVING INTO SC AND NC HAS STOLE SOME OF THE ENERGY AND RICH
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. DRIER AIR TO THE WEST HAS HELPED SKIES
CLEAR OVER WESTERN TN AND INTO NORTH AL AND MS. TEMPERATURES HAVE
LOWERED CONSIDERABLY SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SO
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS THERE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS LATER
TONIGHT BUT SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW JUST ISOLATED ACTIVITY. NOT
THAT CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE ANY THING SIGNIFICANT BUT KEPT CHANCE
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN FORECAST. UPDATED FORECAST
SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             67  82  66  83 /  50  60  50  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  66  82  64  84 /  50  60  30  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       66  82  65  85 /  50  50  30  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              64  80  62  84 /  50  50  30  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD



000
FXUS64 KMRX 270036
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
836 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED RAPIDLY THIS
EVENING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PLATEAU AT
THIS TIME. HAVE REDUCED POPS DOWN TO MAINLY CHANCE. LARGE COMPLEX
IN GA MOVING INTO SC AND NC HAS STOLE SOME OF THE ENERGY AND RICH
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. DRIER AIR TO THE WEST HAS HELPED SKIES
CLEAR OVER WESTERN TN AND INTO NORTH AL AND MS. TEMPERATURES HAVE
LOWERED CONSIDERABLY SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SO
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS THERE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS LATER
TONIGHT BUT SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW JUST ISOLATED ACTIVITY. NOT
THAT CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE ANY THING SIGNIFICANT BUT KEPT CHANCE
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN FORECAST. UPDATED FORECAST
SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             67  82  66  83 /  50  60  50  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  66  82  64  84 /  50  60  30  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       66  82  65  85 /  50  50  30  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              64  80  62  84 /  50  50  30  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMEG 262351
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
651 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE WORKED AGAINST REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE 80S...THERE IS A LACK OF
ANY SURFACE BASED FOCAL POINT...OR TRIGGER...AND WE DO NOT HAVE
THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WE HAD YESTERDAY INTO LAST NIGHT.
THERMODYNAMICALLY...WE STILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES...HELPING TO BOOST INSTABILITY...BUT EVEN THAT
HASN`T PROVEN ENOUGH TO RESULT IN CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PROVIDING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY
LIMIT SHOWERS...BUT ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S ONCE AGAIN...SO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...A BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE PLAINS
STATES SETTING UP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AT LEAST ONE SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING THOROUGH THE MEAN
SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE OUT HIGHEST CHANCE
OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
NOTHING TO GET WORRIED ABOUT. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE WILL
SEE A SUMMERTIME-TYPE PATTERN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING EVERY PERIOD...MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. OUR WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY
WHEN AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE.

LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE PLAINS INCREASING OUR RAIN CHANCES AND BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK DONN 2-4 DEGREES.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS

VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. SOME LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY AM ESPECIALLY NEAR KTUP. ISOLD-SCT AFTN
TSRAS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY SO INTRODUCED A VCTS AT
ALL SITES AT 27/21Z. SSW WINDS 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
ABOUT 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 262351
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
651 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE WORKED AGAINST REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE 80S...THERE IS A LACK OF
ANY SURFACE BASED FOCAL POINT...OR TRIGGER...AND WE DO NOT HAVE
THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WE HAD YESTERDAY INTO LAST NIGHT.
THERMODYNAMICALLY...WE STILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES...HELPING TO BOOST INSTABILITY...BUT EVEN THAT
HASN`T PROVEN ENOUGH TO RESULT IN CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PROVIDING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY
LIMIT SHOWERS...BUT ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S ONCE AGAIN...SO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...A BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE PLAINS
STATES SETTING UP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AT LEAST ONE SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING THOROUGH THE MEAN
SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE OUT HIGHEST CHANCE
OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
NOTHING TO GET WORRIED ABOUT. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE WILL
SEE A SUMMERTIME-TYPE PATTERN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING EVERY PERIOD...MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. OUR WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY
WHEN AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE.

LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE PLAINS INCREASING OUR RAIN CHANCES AND BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK DONN 2-4 DEGREES.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS

VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. SOME LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY AM ESPECIALLY NEAR KTUP. ISOLD-SCT AFTN
TSRAS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY SO INTRODUCED A VCTS AT
ALL SITES AT 27/21Z. SSW WINDS 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
ABOUT 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 262345
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
745 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ALREADY
DYING DOWN OVER EAST TENNESSEE. SHOWERS WERE APPROACHING TYS AND
MAY CONTINUE A COUPLE HOURS THERE...THUNDER NOT EXPECTED AT TYS.
COVERAGE OF ANY OVERNIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIMITED AND WILL NOT
MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FOG AND LOW
CEILINGS FROM 08-14Z WEDNESDAY AT ALL SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 262345
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
745 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ALREADY
DYING DOWN OVER EAST TENNESSEE. SHOWERS WERE APPROACHING TYS AND
MAY CONTINUE A COUPLE HOURS THERE...THUNDER NOT EXPECTED AT TYS.
COVERAGE OF ANY OVERNIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIMITED AND WILL NOT
MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FOG AND LOW
CEILINGS FROM 08-14Z WEDNESDAY AT ALL SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 262345
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
745 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ALREADY
DYING DOWN OVER EAST TENNESSEE. SHOWERS WERE APPROACHING TYS AND
MAY CONTINUE A COUPLE HOURS THERE...THUNDER NOT EXPECTED AT TYS.
COVERAGE OF ANY OVERNIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIMITED AND WILL NOT
MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FOG AND LOW
CEILINGS FROM 08-14Z WEDNESDAY AT ALL SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 262345
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
745 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ALREADY
DYING DOWN OVER EAST TENNESSEE. SHOWERS WERE APPROACHING TYS AND
MAY CONTINUE A COUPLE HOURS THERE...THUNDER NOT EXPECTED AT TYS.
COVERAGE OF ANY OVERNIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIMITED AND WILL NOT
MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FOG AND LOW
CEILINGS FROM 08-14Z WEDNESDAY AT ALL SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 262345
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
745 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ALREADY
DYING DOWN OVER EAST TENNESSEE. SHOWERS WERE APPROACHING TYS AND
MAY CONTINUE A COUPLE HOURS THERE...THUNDER NOT EXPECTED AT TYS.
COVERAGE OF ANY OVERNIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIMITED AND WILL NOT
MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FOG AND LOW
CEILINGS FROM 08-14Z WEDNESDAY AT ALL SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD



000
FXUS64 KMRX 262345
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
745 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ALREADY
DYING DOWN OVER EAST TENNESSEE. SHOWERS WERE APPROACHING TYS AND
MAY CONTINUE A COUPLE HOURS THERE...THUNDER NOT EXPECTED AT TYS.
COVERAGE OF ANY OVERNIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIMITED AND WILL NOT
MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FOG AND LOW
CEILINGS FROM 08-14Z WEDNESDAY AT ALL SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KOHX 262343
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
643 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR
LATER TONIGHT, DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. A PERIOD OF IFR WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY AT CSV. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
AFTER 14Z, EVENTUALLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 262343
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
643 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR
LATER TONIGHT, DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. A PERIOD OF IFR WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY AT CSV. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
AFTER 14Z, EVENTUALLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 262043
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
343 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LINE OF STORMS LOCATED ALONG I-65 CURRENTLY. SO FAR...NO DAMAGE WITH
ANY OF THESE STORMS. LATEST LAPS DATA SHOWS THAT CAPES ARE
INCREASING TOWARD THE PLATEAU. THUS...STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR OUR EC AND NE COUNTIES. HRRR DATA
SHOWS SOME INTENSIFICATION ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. BEHIND THIS
ADVANCING LINE...LITTLE IF ANY REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
BUT...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN
AREAS PRIOR TO 04Z. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW
AS SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND KEEP VSBYS ABOVE 1SM.

RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR WED AND THU. WE
STILL...HOWEVER...WILL SEE CAP EROSION BY 18Z. THUS...SCATTERED
MAINLY AFT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BUT POPS WILL BE
KEPT LOW.

FOR THE SHORT TERM TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL VALUES EXPECTED. I WILL GO
AHEAD AND UNDERCUT THE GUIDANCE BY 1 DEGREE TONIGHT AS SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATE.

IN THE EXT FCST...WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY GAIN STRENGTH
OVER THE PLAINS STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY...AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK OUR WAY AS WELL. THOUGH THIS FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA...IT WILL APPROACH US AND
INCREASE OUR SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW...THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO THE POINT THAT ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE EXT TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      65  87  63  88 /  40  30  30  30
CLARKSVILLE    65  87  63  86 /  20  30  30  30
CROSSVILLE     63  79  61  82 /  60  30  30  30
COLUMBIA       64  85  63  87 /  40  30  30  30
LAWRENCEBURG   64  83  63  85 /  20  30  30  30
WAVERLY        66  87  63  86 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 262043
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
343 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LINE OF STORMS LOCATED ALONG I-65 CURRENTLY. SO FAR...NO DAMAGE WITH
ANY OF THESE STORMS. LATEST LAPS DATA SHOWS THAT CAPES ARE
INCREASING TOWARD THE PLATEAU. THUS...STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR OUR EC AND NE COUNTIES. HRRR DATA
SHOWS SOME INTENSIFICATION ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. BEHIND THIS
ADVANCING LINE...LITTLE IF ANY REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
BUT...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN
AREAS PRIOR TO 04Z. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW
AS SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND KEEP VSBYS ABOVE 1SM.

RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR WED AND THU. WE
STILL...HOWEVER...WILL SEE CAP EROSION BY 18Z. THUS...SCATTERED
MAINLY AFT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BUT POPS WILL BE
KEPT LOW.

FOR THE SHORT TERM TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL VALUES EXPECTED. I WILL GO
AHEAD AND UNDERCUT THE GUIDANCE BY 1 DEGREE TONIGHT AS SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATE.

IN THE EXT FCST...WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY GAIN STRENGTH
OVER THE PLAINS STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY...AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK OUR WAY AS WELL. THOUGH THIS FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA...IT WILL APPROACH US AND
INCREASE OUR SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW...THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO THE POINT THAT ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE EXT TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      65  87  63  88 /  40  30  30  30
CLARKSVILLE    65  87  63  86 /  20  30  30  30
CROSSVILLE     63  79  61  82 /  60  30  30  30
COLUMBIA       64  85  63  87 /  40  30  30  30
LAWRENCEBURG   64  83  63  85 /  20  30  30  30
WAVERLY        66  87  63  86 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 262043
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
343 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LINE OF STORMS LOCATED ALONG I-65 CURRENTLY. SO FAR...NO DAMAGE WITH
ANY OF THESE STORMS. LATEST LAPS DATA SHOWS THAT CAPES ARE
INCREASING TOWARD THE PLATEAU. THUS...STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR OUR EC AND NE COUNTIES. HRRR DATA
SHOWS SOME INTENSIFICATION ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. BEHIND THIS
ADVANCING LINE...LITTLE IF ANY REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
BUT...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN
AREAS PRIOR TO 04Z. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW
AS SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND KEEP VSBYS ABOVE 1SM.

RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR WED AND THU. WE
STILL...HOWEVER...WILL SEE CAP EROSION BY 18Z. THUS...SCATTERED
MAINLY AFT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BUT POPS WILL BE
KEPT LOW.

FOR THE SHORT TERM TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL VALUES EXPECTED. I WILL GO
AHEAD AND UNDERCUT THE GUIDANCE BY 1 DEGREE TONIGHT AS SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATE.

IN THE EXT FCST...WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY GAIN STRENGTH
OVER THE PLAINS STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY...AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK OUR WAY AS WELL. THOUGH THIS FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA...IT WILL APPROACH US AND
INCREASE OUR SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW...THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO THE POINT THAT ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE EXT TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      65  87  63  88 /  40  30  30  30
CLARKSVILLE    65  87  63  86 /  20  30  30  30
CROSSVILLE     63  79  61  82 /  60  30  30  30
COLUMBIA       64  85  63  87 /  40  30  30  30
LAWRENCEBURG   64  83  63  85 /  20  30  30  30
WAVERLY        66  87  63  86 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KMEG 262034
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
334 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE WORKED AGAINST REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE 80S...THERE IS A LACK OF
ANY SURFACE BASED FOCAL POINT...OR TRIGGER...AND WE DO NOT HAVE
THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WE HAD YESTERDAY INTO LAST NIGHT.
THERMODYNAMICALLY...WE STILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES...HELPING TO BOOST INSTABILITY...BUT EVEN THAT
HASN`T PROVEN ENOUGH TO RESULT IN CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PROVIDING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY
LIMIT SHOWERS...BUT ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S ONCE AGAIN...SO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...A BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE PLAINS
STATES SETTING UP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AT LEAST ONE SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING THOROUGH THE MEAN
SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE OUT HIGHEST CHANCE
OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
NOTHING TO GET WORRIED ABOUT. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE WILL
SEE A SUMMERTIME-TYPE PATTERN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING EVERY PERIOD...MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. OUR WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY
WHEN AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE.

LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE PLAINS INCREASING OUR RAIN CHANCES AND BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK DONN 2-4 DEGREES.

30

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

MVFR/VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR IFR STRATUS AT TUP AND MKL TOMORROW MORNING.
SITES SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE WITH VCSH NEAR TUP LATE. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. FEEL THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST
ABOVE THE 8KT THRESHOLD FOR FEDEX OPS AT MEMPHIS THROUGH 27/08Z.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 262034
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
334 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE WORKED AGAINST REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE 80S...THERE IS A LACK OF
ANY SURFACE BASED FOCAL POINT...OR TRIGGER...AND WE DO NOT HAVE
THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WE HAD YESTERDAY INTO LAST NIGHT.
THERMODYNAMICALLY...WE STILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES...HELPING TO BOOST INSTABILITY...BUT EVEN THAT
HASN`T PROVEN ENOUGH TO RESULT IN CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PROVIDING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY
LIMIT SHOWERS...BUT ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S ONCE AGAIN...SO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...A BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE PLAINS
STATES SETTING UP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AT LEAST ONE SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING THOROUGH THE MEAN
SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE OUT HIGHEST CHANCE
OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
NOTHING TO GET WORRIED ABOUT. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE WILL
SEE A SUMMERTIME-TYPE PATTERN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING EVERY PERIOD...MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. OUR WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY
WHEN AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE.

LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE PLAINS INCREASING OUR RAIN CHANCES AND BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK DONN 2-4 DEGREES.

30

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

MVFR/VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR IFR STRATUS AT TUP AND MKL TOMORROW MORNING.
SITES SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE WITH VCSH NEAR TUP LATE. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. FEEL THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST
ABOVE THE 8KT THRESHOLD FOR FEDEX OPS AT MEMPHIS THROUGH 27/08Z.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 262034
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
334 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE WORKED AGAINST REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE 80S...THERE IS A LACK OF
ANY SURFACE BASED FOCAL POINT...OR TRIGGER...AND WE DO NOT HAVE
THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WE HAD YESTERDAY INTO LAST NIGHT.
THERMODYNAMICALLY...WE STILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES...HELPING TO BOOST INSTABILITY...BUT EVEN THAT
HASN`T PROVEN ENOUGH TO RESULT IN CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PROVIDING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY
LIMIT SHOWERS...BUT ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S ONCE AGAIN...SO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...A BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE PLAINS
STATES SETTING UP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AT LEAST ONE SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING THOROUGH THE MEAN
SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE OUT HIGHEST CHANCE
OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
NOTHING TO GET WORRIED ABOUT. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE WILL
SEE A SUMMERTIME-TYPE PATTERN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING EVERY PERIOD...MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. OUR WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY
WHEN AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE.

LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE PLAINS INCREASING OUR RAIN CHANCES AND BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK DONN 2-4 DEGREES.

30

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

MVFR/VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR IFR STRATUS AT TUP AND MKL TOMORROW MORNING.
SITES SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE WITH VCSH NEAR TUP LATE. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. FEEL THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST
ABOVE THE 8KT THRESHOLD FOR FEDEX OPS AT MEMPHIS THROUGH 27/08Z.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 262034
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
334 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE WORKED AGAINST REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE 80S...THERE IS A LACK OF
ANY SURFACE BASED FOCAL POINT...OR TRIGGER...AND WE DO NOT HAVE
THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WE HAD YESTERDAY INTO LAST NIGHT.
THERMODYNAMICALLY...WE STILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES...HELPING TO BOOST INSTABILITY...BUT EVEN THAT
HASN`T PROVEN ENOUGH TO RESULT IN CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PROVIDING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY
LIMIT SHOWERS...BUT ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S ONCE AGAIN...SO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...A BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE PLAINS
STATES SETTING UP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AT LEAST ONE SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING THOROUGH THE MEAN
SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE OUT HIGHEST CHANCE
OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
NOTHING TO GET WORRIED ABOUT. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE WILL
SEE A SUMMERTIME-TYPE PATTERN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING EVERY PERIOD...MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. OUR WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY
WHEN AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE.

LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE PLAINS INCREASING OUR RAIN CHANCES AND BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK DONN 2-4 DEGREES.

30

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

MVFR/VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR IFR STRATUS AT TUP AND MKL TOMORROW MORNING.
SITES SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE WITH VCSH NEAR TUP LATE. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. FEEL THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST
ABOVE THE 8KT THRESHOLD FOR FEDEX OPS AT MEMPHIS THROUGH 27/08Z.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 262034
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
334 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE WORKED AGAINST REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE 80S...THERE IS A LACK OF
ANY SURFACE BASED FOCAL POINT...OR TRIGGER...AND WE DO NOT HAVE
THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WE HAD YESTERDAY INTO LAST NIGHT.
THERMODYNAMICALLY...WE STILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES...HELPING TO BOOST INSTABILITY...BUT EVEN THAT
HASN`T PROVEN ENOUGH TO RESULT IN CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PROVIDING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY
LIMIT SHOWERS...BUT ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S ONCE AGAIN...SO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...A BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE PLAINS
STATES SETTING UP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AT LEAST ONE SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING THOROUGH THE MEAN
SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE OUT HIGHEST CHANCE
OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
NOTHING TO GET WORRIED ABOUT. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE WILL
SEE A SUMMERTIME-TYPE PATTERN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING EVERY PERIOD...MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. OUR WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY
WHEN AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE.

LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE PLAINS INCREASING OUR RAIN CHANCES AND BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK DONN 2-4 DEGREES.

30

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

MVFR/VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR IFR STRATUS AT TUP AND MKL TOMORROW MORNING.
SITES SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE WITH VCSH NEAR TUP LATE. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. FEEL THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST
ABOVE THE 8KT THRESHOLD FOR FEDEX OPS AT MEMPHIS THROUGH 27/08Z.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 261845
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
245 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT...WEAK INSTABILITY...30 TO 40
KT LOW LEVEL JET AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH COMBINE TO
CREATE A BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...POSSIBLY
SEVERE...DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN WITH SUNSET
AS THE ONGOING CONVECTION PUSHES THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH THE
AREA.  A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  ADDITIONAL DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT LACK OF A LOW LEVEL JET WILL DECREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...AFTER SUCH A
PROLONGED DRY PATTERN FOR MAY...THE MONTH WILL CERTAINLY END ON A
WET NOTE. PLENTY OF MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY...ENDING WITH A
COLD FRONT SAGGING SE TOWARD OR INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

HARD TO PICK AND CHOOSE WHEN NOT TO CARRY RAIN CHANCES FOR AN ENTIRE
24 HOURS WAS CHALLENGING...BUT MAXIMUM COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS DOES APPEAR TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. I STILL FAVOR MINIMUM
COVERAGE/LOWEST RAIN CHANCES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGING. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
SUPPORT A DRIER PERIOD THEN...UNTIL THE DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT APPROACH BY EARLY MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDINESS AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS...WHILE MINS STAY
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY. SUPERBLEND OF MOS TEMPS
LOOKED GOOD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             67  82  66  83 /  70  60  50  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  66  82  64  84 /  80  60  30  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       66  82  65  85 /  70  50  30  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              64  80  62  84 /  80  50  30  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB/TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 261845
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
245 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT...WEAK INSTABILITY...30 TO 40
KT LOW LEVEL JET AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH COMBINE TO
CREATE A BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...POSSIBLY
SEVERE...DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN WITH SUNSET
AS THE ONGOING CONVECTION PUSHES THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH THE
AREA.  A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  ADDITIONAL DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT LACK OF A LOW LEVEL JET WILL DECREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...AFTER SUCH A
PROLONGED DRY PATTERN FOR MAY...THE MONTH WILL CERTAINLY END ON A
WET NOTE. PLENTY OF MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY...ENDING WITH A
COLD FRONT SAGGING SE TOWARD OR INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

HARD TO PICK AND CHOOSE WHEN NOT TO CARRY RAIN CHANCES FOR AN ENTIRE
24 HOURS WAS CHALLENGING...BUT MAXIMUM COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS DOES APPEAR TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. I STILL FAVOR MINIMUM
COVERAGE/LOWEST RAIN CHANCES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGING. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
SUPPORT A DRIER PERIOD THEN...UNTIL THE DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT APPROACH BY EARLY MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDINESS AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS...WHILE MINS STAY
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY. SUPERBLEND OF MOS TEMPS
LOOKED GOOD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             67  82  66  83 /  70  60  50  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  66  82  64  84 /  80  60  30  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       66  82  65  85 /  70  50  30  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              64  80  62  84 /  80  50  30  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB/TG



000
FXUS64 KOHX 261741
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1241 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...EXISTING LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
MIDDLE TENNESSEE APPEARS TO REPRESENT THE EXTENT OF OUR ACTIVE
WEATHER THE NEXT 24 HRS, AS THE HRRR SHOWS VERY LITTLE DEVELOPING
IN THE MORE STABLE AIR BEHIND. LOOK FOR SOME MVFR CIGS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS, WITH WINDS REMAINING GUSTY UNTIL THE
EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FOG AROUND DAYBREAK, BUT
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR GOOD FLYING WEATHER ONCE THE LINE OF SHOWERS
MOVES OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
TODAY AS NEGATIVE TILTED SHORT WAVE SWINGS ACROSS OUR AREA. LOOK
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
65 THROUGH 18Z THEN FROM INTERSTATE 65 EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT ENOUGH FOR SOUTHERLY GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




000
FXUS64 KOHX 261741
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1241 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...EXISTING LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
MIDDLE TENNESSEE APPEARS TO REPRESENT THE EXTENT OF OUR ACTIVE
WEATHER THE NEXT 24 HRS, AS THE HRRR SHOWS VERY LITTLE DEVELOPING
IN THE MORE STABLE AIR BEHIND. LOOK FOR SOME MVFR CIGS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS, WITH WINDS REMAINING GUSTY UNTIL THE
EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FOG AROUND DAYBREAK, BUT
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR GOOD FLYING WEATHER ONCE THE LINE OF SHOWERS
MOVES OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
TODAY AS NEGATIVE TILTED SHORT WAVE SWINGS ACROSS OUR AREA. LOOK
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
65 THROUGH 18Z THEN FROM INTERSTATE 65 EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT ENOUGH FOR SOUTHERLY GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




000
FXUS64 KOHX 261741
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1241 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...EXISTING LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
MIDDLE TENNESSEE APPEARS TO REPRESENT THE EXTENT OF OUR ACTIVE
WEATHER THE NEXT 24 HRS, AS THE HRRR SHOWS VERY LITTLE DEVELOPING
IN THE MORE STABLE AIR BEHIND. LOOK FOR SOME MVFR CIGS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS, WITH WINDS REMAINING GUSTY UNTIL THE
EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FOG AROUND DAYBREAK, BUT
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR GOOD FLYING WEATHER ONCE THE LINE OF SHOWERS
MOVES OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
TODAY AS NEGATIVE TILTED SHORT WAVE SWINGS ACROSS OUR AREA. LOOK
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
65 THROUGH 18Z THEN FROM INTERSTATE 65 EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT ENOUGH FOR SOUTHERLY GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




000
FXUS64 KOHX 261741
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1241 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...EXISTING LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
MIDDLE TENNESSEE APPEARS TO REPRESENT THE EXTENT OF OUR ACTIVE
WEATHER THE NEXT 24 HRS, AS THE HRRR SHOWS VERY LITTLE DEVELOPING
IN THE MORE STABLE AIR BEHIND. LOOK FOR SOME MVFR CIGS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS, WITH WINDS REMAINING GUSTY UNTIL THE
EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FOG AROUND DAYBREAK, BUT
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR GOOD FLYING WEATHER ONCE THE LINE OF SHOWERS
MOVES OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
TODAY AS NEGATIVE TILTED SHORT WAVE SWINGS ACROSS OUR AREA. LOOK
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
65 THROUGH 18Z THEN FROM INTERSTATE 65 EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT ENOUGH FOR SOUTHERLY GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




000
FXUS64 KOHX 261741
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1241 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...EXISTING LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
MIDDLE TENNESSEE APPEARS TO REPRESENT THE EXTENT OF OUR ACTIVE
WEATHER THE NEXT 24 HRS, AS THE HRRR SHOWS VERY LITTLE DEVELOPING
IN THE MORE STABLE AIR BEHIND. LOOK FOR SOME MVFR CIGS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS, WITH WINDS REMAINING GUSTY UNTIL THE
EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FOG AROUND DAYBREAK, BUT
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR GOOD FLYING WEATHER ONCE THE LINE OF SHOWERS
MOVES OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
TODAY AS NEGATIVE TILTED SHORT WAVE SWINGS ACROSS OUR AREA. LOOK
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
65 THROUGH 18Z THEN FROM INTERSTATE 65 EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT ENOUGH FOR SOUTHERLY GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




000
FXUS64 KMRX 261727
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
127 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION.  DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
AFTERNOON...ISOLATED HIT OR MISS TYPE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  ANY SHOWER OR STORM THAT MOVES
ACROSS A TAF SITE MAY GENERATE LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VIS FOR LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED AND WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.  ONLY
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FOG DEVELOP FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB



000
FXUS64 KMRX 261727
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
127 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION.  DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
AFTERNOON...ISOLATED HIT OR MISS TYPE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  ANY SHOWER OR STORM THAT MOVES
ACROSS A TAF SITE MAY GENERATE LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VIS FOR LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED AND WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.  ONLY
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FOG DEVELOP FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB



000
FXUS64 KMRX 261727
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
127 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION.  DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
AFTERNOON...ISOLATED HIT OR MISS TYPE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  ANY SHOWER OR STORM THAT MOVES
ACROSS A TAF SITE MAY GENERATE LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VIS FOR LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED AND WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.  ONLY
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FOG DEVELOP FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB



000
FXUS64 KMRX 261727
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
127 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION.  DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
AFTERNOON...ISOLATED HIT OR MISS TYPE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  ANY SHOWER OR STORM THAT MOVES
ACROSS A TAF SITE MAY GENERATE LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VIS FOR LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED AND WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.  ONLY
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FOG DEVELOP FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB



000
FXUS64 KMEG 261721
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1221 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER FAYETTE
COUNTY AS THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL MOVES INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
ALABAMA. ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THE ATMOSPHERE
IS STABLE...WITH ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE FARTHER EAST IN WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR IS NEAR THE
ALABAMA STATE LINE AND TENNESSEE RIVER WHERE LAPS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS SHOW LI`S AS LOW AS -2C AND CAPE OF UP TO 250J/KG. SOME
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE...BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT
THINK WE WILL SEE ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. SLASHED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND TONED DOWN THE
THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO ONLY ISOLATED. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF TEXAS...LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS MCS HAS
BEEN WEAKENING AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF TRANSITIONING INTO A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX AS BETTER FORCING IS GRADUALLY MOVING
AWAY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH NO
THUNDER BEING REPORTED AND A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND. TEMPERATURES
AS OF 4 AM CDT ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH LAST NIGHT/S MCS OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS HAD DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SUBSEQUENTLY REDUCED RAIN CHANCES TODAY
AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. A POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED IF
THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER FROM THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SUBSEQUENT FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED. CONSEQUENTLY...DECIDED
TO CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE
LOCALIZED AT BEST. A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL EXIST FOR A
STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
STILL ARE APPROACHING 2 INCHES.

MODELS INDICATE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS WEEK AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS FORCING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
DAYTIME INSTABILITY AS OVERALL FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
REMAIN SUBTLE AT BEST. ALSO...A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL
EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS THREATS.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PROVIDING A BETTER FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

MVFR/VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR IFR STRATUS AT TUP AND MKL TOMORROW MORNING.
SITES SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE WITH VCSH NEAR TUP LATE. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. FEEL THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST
ABOVE THE 8KT THRESHOLD FOR FEDEX OPS AT MEMPHIS THROUGH 27/08Z.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 261721
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1221 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER FAYETTE
COUNTY AS THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL MOVES INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
ALABAMA. ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THE ATMOSPHERE
IS STABLE...WITH ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE FARTHER EAST IN WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR IS NEAR THE
ALABAMA STATE LINE AND TENNESSEE RIVER WHERE LAPS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS SHOW LI`S AS LOW AS -2C AND CAPE OF UP TO 250J/KG. SOME
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE...BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT
THINK WE WILL SEE ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. SLASHED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND TONED DOWN THE
THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO ONLY ISOLATED. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF TEXAS...LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS MCS HAS
BEEN WEAKENING AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF TRANSITIONING INTO A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX AS BETTER FORCING IS GRADUALLY MOVING
AWAY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH NO
THUNDER BEING REPORTED AND A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND. TEMPERATURES
AS OF 4 AM CDT ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH LAST NIGHT/S MCS OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS HAD DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SUBSEQUENTLY REDUCED RAIN CHANCES TODAY
AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. A POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED IF
THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER FROM THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SUBSEQUENT FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED. CONSEQUENTLY...DECIDED
TO CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE
LOCALIZED AT BEST. A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL EXIST FOR A
STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
STILL ARE APPROACHING 2 INCHES.

MODELS INDICATE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS WEEK AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS FORCING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
DAYTIME INSTABILITY AS OVERALL FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
REMAIN SUBTLE AT BEST. ALSO...A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL
EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS THREATS.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PROVIDING A BETTER FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

MVFR/VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR IFR STRATUS AT TUP AND MKL TOMORROW MORNING.
SITES SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE WITH VCSH NEAR TUP LATE. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. FEEL THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST
ABOVE THE 8KT THRESHOLD FOR FEDEX OPS AT MEMPHIS THROUGH 27/08Z.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 261528
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1028 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER FAYETTE
COUNTY AS THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL MOVES INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
ALABAMA. ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THE ATMOSPHERE
IS STABLE...WITH ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE FARTHER EAST IN WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR IS NEAR THE
ALABAMA STATE LINE AND TENNESSEE RIVER WHERE LAPS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS SHOW LI`S AS LOW AS -2C AND CAPE OF UP TO 250J/KG. SOME
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE...BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT
THINK WE WILL SEE ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. SLASHED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND TONED DOWN THE
THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO ONLY ISOLATED. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF TEXAS...LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS MCS HAS
BEEN WEAKENING AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF TRANSITIONING INTO A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX AS BETTER FORCING IS GRADUALLY MOVING
AWAY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH NO
THUNDER BEING REPORTED AND A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND. TEMPERATURES
AS OF 4 AM CDT ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH LAST NIGHT/S MCS OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS HAD DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SUBSEQUENTLY REDUCED RAIN CHANCES TODAY
AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. A POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED IF
THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER FROM THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SUBSEQUENT FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED. CONSEQUENTLY...DECIDED
TO CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE
LOCALIZED AT BEST. A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL EXIST FOR A
STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
STILL ARE APPROACHING 2 INCHES.

MODELS INDICATE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS WEEK AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS FORCING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
DAYTIME INSTABILITY AS OVERALL FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
REMAIN SUBTLE AT BEST. ALSO...A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL
EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS THREATS.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PROVIDING A BETTER FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS

SHRA SHOULD EXIT MKL/TUP AREAS THROUGH 15Z. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS...UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING
EFFECTIVELY RAISES CLOUD BASES OR SCATTERS OUT THE LOWER LAYERS.

HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS TONIGHT...WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
OVERLYING A MOIST LOW LEVEL INVERSION. WITH LIMITED TSRA/SHRA
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE MORE LIMITED
THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR STRONGER RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND GREATER IFR POTENTIAL TOWARD 27/12Z.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 261528
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1028 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER FAYETTE
COUNTY AS THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL MOVES INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
ALABAMA. ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THE ATMOSPHERE
IS STABLE...WITH ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE FARTHER EAST IN WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR IS NEAR THE
ALABAMA STATE LINE AND TENNESSEE RIVER WHERE LAPS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS SHOW LI`S AS LOW AS -2C AND CAPE OF UP TO 250J/KG. SOME
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE...BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT
THINK WE WILL SEE ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. SLASHED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND TONED DOWN THE
THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO ONLY ISOLATED. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF TEXAS...LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS MCS HAS
BEEN WEAKENING AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF TRANSITIONING INTO A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX AS BETTER FORCING IS GRADUALLY MOVING
AWAY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH NO
THUNDER BEING REPORTED AND A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND. TEMPERATURES
AS OF 4 AM CDT ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH LAST NIGHT/S MCS OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS HAD DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SUBSEQUENTLY REDUCED RAIN CHANCES TODAY
AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. A POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED IF
THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER FROM THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SUBSEQUENT FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED. CONSEQUENTLY...DECIDED
TO CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE
LOCALIZED AT BEST. A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL EXIST FOR A
STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
STILL ARE APPROACHING 2 INCHES.

MODELS INDICATE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS WEEK AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS FORCING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
DAYTIME INSTABILITY AS OVERALL FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
REMAIN SUBTLE AT BEST. ALSO...A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL
EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS THREATS.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PROVIDING A BETTER FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS

SHRA SHOULD EXIT MKL/TUP AREAS THROUGH 15Z. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS...UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING
EFFECTIVELY RAISES CLOUD BASES OR SCATTERS OUT THE LOWER LAYERS.

HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS TONIGHT...WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
OVERLYING A MOIST LOW LEVEL INVERSION. WITH LIMITED TSRA/SHRA
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE MORE LIMITED
THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR STRONGER RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND GREATER IFR POTENTIAL TOWARD 27/12Z.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 261528
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1028 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER FAYETTE
COUNTY AS THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL MOVES INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
ALABAMA. ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THE ATMOSPHERE
IS STABLE...WITH ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE FARTHER EAST IN WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR IS NEAR THE
ALABAMA STATE LINE AND TENNESSEE RIVER WHERE LAPS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS SHOW LI`S AS LOW AS -2C AND CAPE OF UP TO 250J/KG. SOME
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE...BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT
THINK WE WILL SEE ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. SLASHED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND TONED DOWN THE
THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO ONLY ISOLATED. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF TEXAS...LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS MCS HAS
BEEN WEAKENING AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF TRANSITIONING INTO A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX AS BETTER FORCING IS GRADUALLY MOVING
AWAY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH NO
THUNDER BEING REPORTED AND A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND. TEMPERATURES
AS OF 4 AM CDT ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH LAST NIGHT/S MCS OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS HAD DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SUBSEQUENTLY REDUCED RAIN CHANCES TODAY
AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. A POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED IF
THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER FROM THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SUBSEQUENT FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED. CONSEQUENTLY...DECIDED
TO CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE
LOCALIZED AT BEST. A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL EXIST FOR A
STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
STILL ARE APPROACHING 2 INCHES.

MODELS INDICATE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS WEEK AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS FORCING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
DAYTIME INSTABILITY AS OVERALL FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
REMAIN SUBTLE AT BEST. ALSO...A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL
EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS THREATS.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PROVIDING A BETTER FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS

SHRA SHOULD EXIT MKL/TUP AREAS THROUGH 15Z. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS...UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING
EFFECTIVELY RAISES CLOUD BASES OR SCATTERS OUT THE LOWER LAYERS.

HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS TONIGHT...WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
OVERLYING A MOIST LOW LEVEL INVERSION. WITH LIMITED TSRA/SHRA
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE MORE LIMITED
THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR STRONGER RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND GREATER IFR POTENTIAL TOWARD 27/12Z.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 261520
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1120 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION.  DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
AFTERNOON...ISOLATED HIT OR MISS TYPE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  A STRAY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
IS POSSIBLE.  ALL HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...WILL UPDATE
TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             80  66  82  66 /  80  80  70  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  65  81  64 /  70  70  70  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       80  65  81  65 /  70  70  70  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              82  64  79  62 /  60  70  70  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB



000
FXUS64 KMRX 261520
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1120 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION.  DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
AFTERNOON...ISOLATED HIT OR MISS TYPE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  A STRAY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
IS POSSIBLE.  ALL HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...WILL UPDATE
TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             80  66  82  66 /  80  80  70  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  65  81  64 /  70  70  70  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       80  65  81  65 /  70  70  70  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              82  64  79  62 /  60  70  70  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB




000
FXUS64 KMEG 261149 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
649 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF TEXAS...LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS MCS HAS
BEEN WEAKENING AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF TRANSITIONING INTO A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX AS BETTER FORCING IS GRADUALLY MOVING
AWAY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH NO
THUNDER BEING REPORTED AND A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND. TEMPERATURES
AS OF 4 AM CDT ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH LAST NIGHT/S MCS OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS HAD DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SUBSEQUENTLY REDUCED RAIN CHANCES TODAY
AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. A POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED IF
THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER FROM THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SUBSEQUENT FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED. CONSEQUENTLY...DECIDED
TO CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE
LOCALIZED AT BEST. A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL EXIST FOR A
STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
STILL ARE APPROACHING 2 INCHES.

MODELS INDICATE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS WEEK AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS FORCING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
DAYTIME INSTABILITY AS OVERALL FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
REMAIN SUBTLE AT BEST. ALSO...A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL
EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS THREATS.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PROVIDING A BETTER FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

SHRA SHOULD EXIT MKL/TUP AREAS THROUGH 15Z. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS...UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING
EFFECTIVELY RAISES CLOUD BASES OR SCATTERS OUT THE LOWER LAYERS.

HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS TONIGHT...WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
OVERLYING A MOIST LOW LEVEL INVERSION. WITH LIMITED TSRA/SHRA
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE MORE LIMITED
THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR STRONGER RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND GREATER IFR POTENTIAL TOWARD 27/12Z.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 261149 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
649 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF TEXAS...LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS MCS HAS
BEEN WEAKENING AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF TRANSITIONING INTO A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX AS BETTER FORCING IS GRADUALLY MOVING
AWAY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH NO
THUNDER BEING REPORTED AND A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND. TEMPERATURES
AS OF 4 AM CDT ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH LAST NIGHT/S MCS OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS HAD DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SUBSEQUENTLY REDUCED RAIN CHANCES TODAY
AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. A POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED IF
THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER FROM THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SUBSEQUENT FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED. CONSEQUENTLY...DECIDED
TO CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE
LOCALIZED AT BEST. A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL EXIST FOR A
STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
STILL ARE APPROACHING 2 INCHES.

MODELS INDICATE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS WEEK AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS FORCING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
DAYTIME INSTABILITY AS OVERALL FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
REMAIN SUBTLE AT BEST. ALSO...A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL
EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS THREATS.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PROVIDING A BETTER FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

SHRA SHOULD EXIT MKL/TUP AREAS THROUGH 15Z. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS...UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING
EFFECTIVELY RAISES CLOUD BASES OR SCATTERS OUT THE LOWER LAYERS.

HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS TONIGHT...WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
OVERLYING A MOIST LOW LEVEL INVERSION. WITH LIMITED TSRA/SHRA
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE MORE LIMITED
THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR STRONGER RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND GREATER IFR POTENTIAL TOWARD 27/12Z.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 261149 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
649 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF TEXAS...LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS MCS HAS
BEEN WEAKENING AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF TRANSITIONING INTO A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX AS BETTER FORCING IS GRADUALLY MOVING
AWAY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH NO
THUNDER BEING REPORTED AND A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND. TEMPERATURES
AS OF 4 AM CDT ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH LAST NIGHT/S MCS OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS HAD DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SUBSEQUENTLY REDUCED RAIN CHANCES TODAY
AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. A POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED IF
THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER FROM THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SUBSEQUENT FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED. CONSEQUENTLY...DECIDED
TO CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE
LOCALIZED AT BEST. A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL EXIST FOR A
STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
STILL ARE APPROACHING 2 INCHES.

MODELS INDICATE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS WEEK AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS FORCING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
DAYTIME INSTABILITY AS OVERALL FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
REMAIN SUBTLE AT BEST. ALSO...A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL
EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS THREATS.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PROVIDING A BETTER FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

SHRA SHOULD EXIT MKL/TUP AREAS THROUGH 15Z. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS...UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING
EFFECTIVELY RAISES CLOUD BASES OR SCATTERS OUT THE LOWER LAYERS.

HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS TONIGHT...WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
OVERLYING A MOIST LOW LEVEL INVERSION. WITH LIMITED TSRA/SHRA
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE MORE LIMITED
THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR STRONGER RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND GREATER IFR POTENTIAL TOWARD 27/12Z.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 261149 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
649 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF TEXAS...LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS MCS HAS
BEEN WEAKENING AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF TRANSITIONING INTO A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX AS BETTER FORCING IS GRADUALLY MOVING
AWAY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH NO
THUNDER BEING REPORTED AND A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND. TEMPERATURES
AS OF 4 AM CDT ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH LAST NIGHT/S MCS OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS HAD DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SUBSEQUENTLY REDUCED RAIN CHANCES TODAY
AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. A POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED IF
THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER FROM THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SUBSEQUENT FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED. CONSEQUENTLY...DECIDED
TO CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE
LOCALIZED AT BEST. A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL EXIST FOR A
STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
STILL ARE APPROACHING 2 INCHES.

MODELS INDICATE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS WEEK AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS FORCING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
DAYTIME INSTABILITY AS OVERALL FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
REMAIN SUBTLE AT BEST. ALSO...A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL
EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS THREATS.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PROVIDING A BETTER FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

SHRA SHOULD EXIT MKL/TUP AREAS THROUGH 15Z. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS...UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING
EFFECTIVELY RAISES CLOUD BASES OR SCATTERS OUT THE LOWER LAYERS.

HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS TONIGHT...WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
OVERLYING A MOIST LOW LEVEL INVERSION. WITH LIMITED TSRA/SHRA
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE MORE LIMITED
THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR STRONGER RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND GREATER IFR POTENTIAL TOWARD 27/12Z.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 261141
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
641 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
TODAY AS NEGATIVE TILTED SHORT WAVE SWINGS ACROSS OUR AREA. LOOK
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
65 THROUGH 18Z THEN FROM INTERSTATE 65 EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT ENOUGH FOR SOUTHERLY GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 261141
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
641 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
TODAY AS NEGATIVE TILTED SHORT WAVE SWINGS ACROSS OUR AREA. LOOK
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
65 THROUGH 18Z THEN FROM INTERSTATE 65 EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT ENOUGH FOR SOUTHERLY GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 261141
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
641 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
TODAY AS NEGATIVE TILTED SHORT WAVE SWINGS ACROSS OUR AREA. LOOK
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
65 THROUGH 18Z THEN FROM INTERSTATE 65 EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT ENOUGH FOR SOUTHERLY GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 261141
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
641 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
TODAY AS NEGATIVE TILTED SHORT WAVE SWINGS ACROSS OUR AREA. LOOK
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
65 THROUGH 18Z THEN FROM INTERSTATE 65 EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT ENOUGH FOR SOUTHERLY GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KMRX 261132
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
732 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...A DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS RESULTING IN
MULTIPLE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD LAYERS THIS MORNING AND EVEN A
FEW SHOWERS AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE FEATURE RIDES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI WILL BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TERMINALS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
WEAKEN INTO AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY. IN
SUCH A MOIST AIR MASS...MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG COULD DEVELOP DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 261132
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
732 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...A DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS RESULTING IN
MULTIPLE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD LAYERS THIS MORNING AND EVEN A
FEW SHOWERS AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE FEATURE RIDES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI WILL BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TERMINALS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
WEAKEN INTO AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY. IN
SUCH A MOIST AIR MASS...MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG COULD DEVELOP DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 260926
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
426 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF TEXAS...LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS MCS HAS
BEEN WEAKENING AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF TRANSITIONING INTO A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX AS BETTER FORCING IS GRADUALLY MOVING
AWAY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH NO
THUNDER BEING REPORTED AND A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND. TEMPERATURES
AS OF 4 AM CDT ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH LAST NIGHT/S MCS OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS HAD DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SUBSEQUENTLY REDUCED RAIN CHANCES TODAY
AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. A POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED IF
THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER FROM THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SUBSEQUENT FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED. CONSEQUENTLY...DECIDED
TO CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE
LOCALIZED AT BEST. A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL EXIST FOR A
STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
STILL ARE APPROACHING 2 INCHES.

MODELS INDICATE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS WEEK AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS FORCING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
DAYTIME INSTABILITY AS OVERALL FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
REMAIN SUBTLE AT BEST. ALSO...A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL
EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS THREATS.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PROVIDING A BETTER FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

A WEAKENING LINE OF SHRAS/TSRAS SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
THIS LINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY AN AREA OF RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDS WILL DETERIORATE
TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AND CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT TO VFR ON TUESDAY. SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUSTS ON TUESDAY.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 260926
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
426 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF TEXAS...LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS MCS HAS
BEEN WEAKENING AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF TRANSITIONING INTO A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX AS BETTER FORCING IS GRADUALLY MOVING
AWAY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH NO
THUNDER BEING REPORTED AND A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND. TEMPERATURES
AS OF 4 AM CDT ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH LAST NIGHT/S MCS OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS HAD DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SUBSEQUENTLY REDUCED RAIN CHANCES TODAY
AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. A POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED IF
THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER FROM THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SUBSEQUENT FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED. CONSEQUENTLY...DECIDED
TO CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE
LOCALIZED AT BEST. A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL EXIST FOR A
STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
STILL ARE APPROACHING 2 INCHES.

MODELS INDICATE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS WEEK AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS FORCING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
DAYTIME INSTABILITY AS OVERALL FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
REMAIN SUBTLE AT BEST. ALSO...A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL
EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS THREATS.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PROVIDING A BETTER FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

A WEAKENING LINE OF SHRAS/TSRAS SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
THIS LINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY AN AREA OF RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDS WILL DETERIORATE
TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AND CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT TO VFR ON TUESDAY. SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUSTS ON TUESDAY.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 260757
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
257 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE MID STATE CLEAR OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...REGIONAL MOSAIC IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE BUT
WEAKENING MCS STRETCHING FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI. CURRENT SPEED OF MCS BRINGS IT INTO SOUTHWEST ZONES
AROUND 12Z...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH 06Z HRRR TIMING/DEPICTION OF
MCS FALLING APART AS IT ENTERS THE MID STATE. LATEST THINKING
REMAINS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH WEAKENING MCS AFFECTING
WESTERN ZONES IN THE MORNING...THEN ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON
AREAWIDE. WILL SHOW POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY VERSUS CATEGORICAL
DUE TO COVERAGE CONCERNS...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPS NEAR THE SUPERBLEND
CONSENSUS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS
TRIMMED BACK THE SLIGHT RISK TO JUST NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE MID
STATE...AND SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS MARGINAL DUE TO NEAR
MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES AND LACKLUSTER CAPE. STILL...A FEW
STRONG OR BORDERLINE SEVERE STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND PARTICULARLY OVER
THE NORTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH POPS
DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SEE A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN
WITH MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON THE BORDERLINE BETWEEN A WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND EASTERN CONUS RIDGE. THUS ANTICIPATED ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING EACH DAY BEFORE DECREASING AT NIGHT. A FEW STRONG
PULSE/MULTICELL STORMS WITH POTENTIAL MICROBURST WIND/HAIL RISK
COULD BE SEEN EACH DAY AS CAPE WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL BUT BULK SHEAR
WEAK. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...BUT 00Z
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      81  66  86  66 /  70  40  40  30
CLARKSVILLE    79  65  84  65 /  70  30  40  30
CROSSVILLE     77  64  80  64 /  70  60  50  30
COLUMBIA       79  65  83  65 /  70  40  40  30
LAWRENCEBURG   78  65  82  65 /  70  40  40  30
WAVERLY        78  66  84  65 /  70  30  40  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER





000
FXUS64 KOHX 260757
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
257 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE MID STATE CLEAR OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...REGIONAL MOSAIC IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE BUT
WEAKENING MCS STRETCHING FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI. CURRENT SPEED OF MCS BRINGS IT INTO SOUTHWEST ZONES
AROUND 12Z...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH 06Z HRRR TIMING/DEPICTION OF
MCS FALLING APART AS IT ENTERS THE MID STATE. LATEST THINKING
REMAINS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH WEAKENING MCS AFFECTING
WESTERN ZONES IN THE MORNING...THEN ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON
AREAWIDE. WILL SHOW POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY VERSUS CATEGORICAL
DUE TO COVERAGE CONCERNS...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPS NEAR THE SUPERBLEND
CONSENSUS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS
TRIMMED BACK THE SLIGHT RISK TO JUST NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE MID
STATE...AND SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS MARGINAL DUE TO NEAR
MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES AND LACKLUSTER CAPE. STILL...A FEW
STRONG OR BORDERLINE SEVERE STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND PARTICULARLY OVER
THE NORTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH POPS
DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SEE A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN
WITH MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON THE BORDERLINE BETWEEN A WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND EASTERN CONUS RIDGE. THUS ANTICIPATED ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING EACH DAY BEFORE DECREASING AT NIGHT. A FEW STRONG
PULSE/MULTICELL STORMS WITH POTENTIAL MICROBURST WIND/HAIL RISK
COULD BE SEEN EACH DAY AS CAPE WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL BUT BULK SHEAR
WEAK. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...BUT 00Z
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      81  66  86  66 /  70  40  40  30
CLARKSVILLE    79  65  84  65 /  70  30  40  30
CROSSVILLE     77  64  80  64 /  70  60  50  30
COLUMBIA       79  65  83  65 /  70  40  40  30
LAWRENCEBURG   78  65  82  65 /  70  40  40  30
WAVERLY        78  66  84  65 /  70  30  40  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER






000
FXUS64 KMRX 260633
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
233 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE LATEST HRRR DEPICTIONS OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER NE GA AND MOVING N-NE THROUGH THE MORNING...SO
INITIALLY THE HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE NE. THE VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION NEAR THE MS RIVER THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE INTO MIDDLE TN THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING THE HIGHERST
PRECIP CHANCES TO THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN VALLEY AREAS. WILL HAVE
CATEGORICAL POPS IN THESE AREAS...WITH LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE VORT MAX MOVES EAST. A FEW STRONG STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE LOOKS LOW WITH A
SKINNY CAPE AREA SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HEAVY RAIN FROM
TRAINING CELLS WILL BE A BIGGER THREAT THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING.

THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES OVER 1.5
INCHES...WITH MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. VARIOUS
MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
DISTURBANCES...WHICH WILL BE KEY TO PINPOINTING THE AREA AND TIMING
OF HIGHEST POPS AND QPF. WITH CONFIDENCE BEING LOW WITH THESE FINER
FEATURES...WILL PAINT THE POP/WX/QPF GRIDS WITH A BROAD BRUSH.
LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED EACH DAY...WITH CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. NO
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
- KMEM 260623
WRKAFD

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE THE RULE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING MID WEEK SHORT WAVE AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE.
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION INCHES UP JUST A LITTLE LATER IN THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE FEATURE ALONG WITH A
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
APPALACHIAN REGION. MAX AND MIN FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST
A LITTLE AHEAD OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE MAY AND EARLY JUNE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             80  66  82  66 /  80  80  70  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  65  81  64 /  70  70  70  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       80  65  81  65 /  70  70  70  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              82  64  79  62 /  60  70  70  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

24/99



000
FXUS64 KMRX 260633
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
233 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE LATEST HRRR DEPICTIONS OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER NE GA AND MOVING N-NE THROUGH THE MORNING...SO
INITIALLY THE HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE NE. THE VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION NEAR THE MS RIVER THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE INTO MIDDLE TN THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING THE HIGHERST
PRECIP CHANCES TO THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN VALLEY AREAS. WILL HAVE
CATEGORICAL POPS IN THESE AREAS...WITH LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE VORT MAX MOVES EAST. A FEW STRONG STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE LOOKS LOW WITH A
SKINNY CAPE AREA SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HEAVY RAIN FROM
TRAINING CELLS WILL BE A BIGGER THREAT THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING.

THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES OVER 1.5
INCHES...WITH MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. VARIOUS
MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
DISTURBANCES...WHICH WILL BE KEY TO PINPOINTING THE AREA AND TIMING
OF HIGHEST POPS AND QPF. WITH CONFIDENCE BEING LOW WITH THESE FINER
FEATURES...WILL PAINT THE POP/WX/QPF GRIDS WITH A BROAD BRUSH.
LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED EACH DAY...WITH CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. NO
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
- KMEM 260623
WRKAFD

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE THE RULE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING MID WEEK SHORT WAVE AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE.
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION INCHES UP JUST A LITTLE LATER IN THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE FEATURE ALONG WITH A
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
APPALACHIAN REGION. MAX AND MIN FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST
A LITTLE AHEAD OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE MAY AND EARLY JUNE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             80  66  82  66 /  80  80  70  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  65  81  64 /  70  70  70  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       80  65  81  65 /  70  70  70  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              82  64  79  62 /  60  70  70  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

24/99




000
FXUS64 KMRX 260633
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
233 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE LATEST HRRR DEPICTIONS OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER NE GA AND MOVING N-NE THROUGH THE MORNING...SO
INITIALLY THE HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE NE. THE VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION NEAR THE MS RIVER THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE INTO MIDDLE TN THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING THE HIGHERST
PRECIP CHANCES TO THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN VALLEY AREAS. WILL HAVE
CATEGORICAL POPS IN THESE AREAS...WITH LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE VORT MAX MOVES EAST. A FEW STRONG STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE LOOKS LOW WITH A
SKINNY CAPE AREA SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HEAVY RAIN FROM
TRAINING CELLS WILL BE A BIGGER THREAT THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING.

THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES OVER 1.5
INCHES...WITH MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. VARIOUS
MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
DISTURBANCES...WHICH WILL BE KEY TO PINPOINTING THE AREA AND TIMING
OF HIGHEST POPS AND QPF. WITH CONFIDENCE BEING LOW WITH THESE FINER
FEATURES...WILL PAINT THE POP/WX/QPF GRIDS WITH A BROAD BRUSH.
LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED EACH DAY...WITH CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. NO
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
- KMEM 260623
WRKAFD

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE THE RULE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING MID WEEK SHORT WAVE AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE.
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION INCHES UP JUST A LITTLE LATER IN THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE FEATURE ALONG WITH A
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
APPALACHIAN REGION. MAX AND MIN FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST
A LITTLE AHEAD OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE MAY AND EARLY JUNE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             80  66  82  66 /  80  80  70  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  65  81  64 /  70  70  70  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       80  65  81  65 /  70  70  70  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              82  64  79  62 /  60  70  70  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

24/99




000
FXUS64 KMRX 260528
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
128 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOISTENING RATHER NICELY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A NOTABLE
INCREASE IN DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS. WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SO MINUSCULE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TENNESSEE THERE COULD BE A BIT OF FOG AT CHA. HOWEVER...THE AC
CEILINGS ARE KEEPING AIR TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE DEWPOINT. IT
SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH SOME SHORT WAVE LIFT ESPECIALLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREFORE...MAINTAINED SOME
VICINITY SHRA AND SOME TSRA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 260528
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
128 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOISTENING RATHER NICELY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A NOTABLE
INCREASE IN DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS. WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SO MINUSCULE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TENNESSEE THERE COULD BE A BIT OF FOG AT CHA. HOWEVER...THE AC
CEILINGS ARE KEEPING AIR TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE DEWPOINT. IT
SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH SOME SHORT WAVE LIFT ESPECIALLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREFORE...MAINTAINED SOME
VICINITY SHRA AND SOME TSRA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 260444
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1144 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE SOME AREAS OF BR AND LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS TO FORM OVERNIGHT...MAINLY FOR CKV AND CSV. EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR AT CKV/CSV...WITH CIGS BRIEFLY DROPPING TO IFR.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AFTER 12Z...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MVFR. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS OVER 20KT AT TIMES.

MOST PRECIP WILL EXIT THE AREA BY 27/00Z...WITH AREAS OF BR
FORMING BY 27/06Z.

13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...
PER SHWRS LEAVING THE MID STATE...AND WITH NO INDICATIONS FROM SHORT
RANGE MODELS OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING BACK INTO MID STATE UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT...REMOVED MENTION OF EVENING SHWRS FROM THE SUITE OF FORECAST
PRODUCTS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

31

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 709 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...
PER REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OBSERVATIONS TRENDS...ALONG
WITH SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...SOME LINGERING SHWRS ACROSS THE FAR
MOST ERN PLATEAU COUNTIES THRU THE EVENING HRS...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
REMAINDER OF MID STATE. BELIEVE WITH WINDS DYING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT...
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHWRS
ACROSS UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION THRU THE FIRST FEW HRS AFTER MIDNIGHT ALSO.
NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD APPROACH THE TN RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED
/DIRECTION GRIDS. HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS ACCORDINGLY...
INCLUDING REMOVING THE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ZONE GROUPING FROM THE ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCT.

31

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 221 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...A PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH A FEW STRONGER
CELLS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN PARTS. HRRR HAS PERFORMED QUITE
WELL TODAY, AND THE SHORT-RANGE MODEL HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
DECREASE IN THE ACTIVITY FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING, SO
AM SPLITTING TONIGHT`S POP GRID INTO 6-HOUR INCREMENTS, WITH
REDUCED POP`S FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z. NAM SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOMORROW MORNING ALONG WITH THE NEXT WAVE OF
MOISTURE, THEREBY PUSHING THE DRY WEDGE NORTHWARD AND BRINGING
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POP`S BACK IN. SPC IS KEEPING THE ENTIRE MID
STATE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT, AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MAINLY DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS, WITH VERY LITTLE AIR MASS CHANGE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY`S ANTICIPATED SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE, THE UPPER PATTERN BREAKS DOWN INTO A MUCH WEAKER FLOW,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHING ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST, VERY
SUMMER-LIKE. WE MAY SEE A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT AT
THIS POINT THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TO THE POINT THAT
ANY CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING IS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

ROSE

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 260444
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1144 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE SOME AREAS OF BR AND LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS TO FORM OVERNIGHT...MAINLY FOR CKV AND CSV. EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR AT CKV/CSV...WITH CIGS BRIEFLY DROPPING TO IFR.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AFTER 12Z...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MVFR. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS OVER 20KT AT TIMES.

MOST PRECIP WILL EXIT THE AREA BY 27/00Z...WITH AREAS OF BR
FORMING BY 27/06Z.

13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...
PER SHWRS LEAVING THE MID STATE...AND WITH NO INDICATIONS FROM SHORT
RANGE MODELS OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING BACK INTO MID STATE UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT...REMOVED MENTION OF EVENING SHWRS FROM THE SUITE OF FORECAST
PRODUCTS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

31

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 709 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...
PER REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OBSERVATIONS TRENDS...ALONG
WITH SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...SOME LINGERING SHWRS ACROSS THE FAR
MOST ERN PLATEAU COUNTIES THRU THE EVENING HRS...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
REMAINDER OF MID STATE. BELIEVE WITH WINDS DYING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT...
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHWRS
ACROSS UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION THRU THE FIRST FEW HRS AFTER MIDNIGHT ALSO.
NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD APPROACH THE TN RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED
/DIRECTION GRIDS. HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS ACCORDINGLY...
INCLUDING REMOVING THE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ZONE GROUPING FROM THE ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCT.

31

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 221 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...A PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH A FEW STRONGER
CELLS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN PARTS. HRRR HAS PERFORMED QUITE
WELL TODAY, AND THE SHORT-RANGE MODEL HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
DECREASE IN THE ACTIVITY FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING, SO
AM SPLITTING TONIGHT`S POP GRID INTO 6-HOUR INCREMENTS, WITH
REDUCED POP`S FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z. NAM SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOMORROW MORNING ALONG WITH THE NEXT WAVE OF
MOISTURE, THEREBY PUSHING THE DRY WEDGE NORTHWARD AND BRINGING
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POP`S BACK IN. SPC IS KEEPING THE ENTIRE MID
STATE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT, AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MAINLY DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS, WITH VERY LITTLE AIR MASS CHANGE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY`S ANTICIPATED SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE, THE UPPER PATTERN BREAKS DOWN INTO A MUCH WEAKER FLOW,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHING ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST, VERY
SUMMER-LIKE. WE MAY SEE A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT AT
THIS POINT THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TO THE POINT THAT
ANY CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING IS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

ROSE

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMEG 260428
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1128 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...

A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS BY 10 PM. THE LINE
IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS A GUST FRONT IS
STARTING TO MOVE OUT AHEAD OF AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LINE. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. BEST TIMING WILL BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
FLASH FLOODING MAY BE THE BIGGER ISSUES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WILL
ONLY UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

WE REMAIN IN A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN DESPITE A CURRENT TEMPORARY
LULL IN ACTIVITY. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS RECOVERED NICELY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH RAPID DESTABILIZATION FARTHER
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH. LAPS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS FEATURE CAPES AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG IN EAST
ARKANSAS...WITH LI`S AS LOW AS -4.5C. BY SUNSET...EXPECT TO SEE
SIMILAR VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. WELL UPSTREAM OVER
NORTH TEXAS...A BOWING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDSOUTH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ORIENTED FROM NORTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ELEVATED...LIKELY AS HIGH AS IT IS THIS EVENING. AS THE BOW
ACCELERATES TO THE EAST...STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE LOOKS
POSSIBLE...IF NOT LIKELY...ALONG WITH SEVERE HAIL. TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...EMBEDDED IN THE LINE...MOST LIKELY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ANY KINKS IN THE LINE. ADDITIONALLY...ALTHOUGH
NOT HIGHLY EXPECTED...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
BOW POSING A HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.

FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN...AND MAY BECOME THE
PRIMARY CONCERN BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. SOME OF THE
MIDSOUTH...ESPECIALLY NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE HAS
ALREADY RECEIVED 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...LIKELY RESULTING IN AT LEAST LOCALIZED
FLOODING. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...IT WOULD BE A GOOD
IDEA TO TAKE ACTION NOW TO ENSURE YOUR SAFETY. EXTENDED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE MIDSOUTH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...RAIN CHANCES AS WELL
AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED...ALTHOUGH WITH THE LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THEY SHOULD NOT BE AS ORGANIZED. EXPECT
SUMMERTIME TYPE PULSE STORMS DRIVEN MOSTLY BY DAYTIME HEATING. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND PW`S WILL REMAIN
AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO RAIN WILL BE HEAVY WHERE IT FALLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE UPPER 80S. HOWEVER...WITH
SUCH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE...AND RAIN EXPECTED...WILL UNDERCUT THOSE
NUMBERS SLIGHTLY AND KEEP READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

DON`T SEE MUCH CHANCE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES MAY TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER AS HEIGHTS FALL A BIT...BUT
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RAINFALL CHANCES AND THE THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS COULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

A WEAKENING LINE OF SHRAS/TSRAS SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
THIS LINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY AN AREA OF RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDS WILL DETERIORATE
TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AND CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT TO VFR ON TUESDAY. SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUSTS ON TUESDAY.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     TUNICA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-
     PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-
     TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-MADISON-MCNAIRY-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 260428
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1128 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...

A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS BY 10 PM. THE LINE
IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS A GUST FRONT IS
STARTING TO MOVE OUT AHEAD OF AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LINE. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. BEST TIMING WILL BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
FLASH FLOODING MAY BE THE BIGGER ISSUES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WILL
ONLY UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

WE REMAIN IN A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN DESPITE A CURRENT TEMPORARY
LULL IN ACTIVITY. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS RECOVERED NICELY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH RAPID DESTABILIZATION FARTHER
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH. LAPS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS FEATURE CAPES AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG IN EAST
ARKANSAS...WITH LI`S AS LOW AS -4.5C. BY SUNSET...EXPECT TO SEE
SIMILAR VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. WELL UPSTREAM OVER
NORTH TEXAS...A BOWING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDSOUTH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ORIENTED FROM NORTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ELEVATED...LIKELY AS HIGH AS IT IS THIS EVENING. AS THE BOW
ACCELERATES TO THE EAST...STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE LOOKS
POSSIBLE...IF NOT LIKELY...ALONG WITH SEVERE HAIL. TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...EMBEDDED IN THE LINE...MOST LIKELY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ANY KINKS IN THE LINE. ADDITIONALLY...ALTHOUGH
NOT HIGHLY EXPECTED...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
BOW POSING A HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.

FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN...AND MAY BECOME THE
PRIMARY CONCERN BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. SOME OF THE
MIDSOUTH...ESPECIALLY NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE HAS
ALREADY RECEIVED 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...LIKELY RESULTING IN AT LEAST LOCALIZED
FLOODING. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...IT WOULD BE A GOOD
IDEA TO TAKE ACTION NOW TO ENSURE YOUR SAFETY. EXTENDED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE MIDSOUTH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...RAIN CHANCES AS WELL
AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED...ALTHOUGH WITH THE LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THEY SHOULD NOT BE AS ORGANIZED. EXPECT
SUMMERTIME TYPE PULSE STORMS DRIVEN MOSTLY BY DAYTIME HEATING. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND PW`S WILL REMAIN
AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO RAIN WILL BE HEAVY WHERE IT FALLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE UPPER 80S. HOWEVER...WITH
SUCH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE...AND RAIN EXPECTED...WILL UNDERCUT THOSE
NUMBERS SLIGHTLY AND KEEP READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

DON`T SEE MUCH CHANCE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES MAY TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER AS HEIGHTS FALL A BIT...BUT
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RAINFALL CHANCES AND THE THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS COULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

A WEAKENING LINE OF SHRAS/TSRAS SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
THIS LINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY AN AREA OF RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDS WILL DETERIORATE
TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AND CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT TO VFR ON TUESDAY. SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUSTS ON TUESDAY.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     TUNICA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-
     PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-
     TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-MADISON-MCNAIRY-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 260428
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1128 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...

A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS BY 10 PM. THE LINE
IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS A GUST FRONT IS
STARTING TO MOVE OUT AHEAD OF AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LINE. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. BEST TIMING WILL BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
FLASH FLOODING MAY BE THE BIGGER ISSUES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WILL
ONLY UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

WE REMAIN IN A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN DESPITE A CURRENT TEMPORARY
LULL IN ACTIVITY. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS RECOVERED NICELY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH RAPID DESTABILIZATION FARTHER
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH. LAPS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS FEATURE CAPES AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG IN EAST
ARKANSAS...WITH LI`S AS LOW AS -4.5C. BY SUNSET...EXPECT TO SEE
SIMILAR VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. WELL UPSTREAM OVER
NORTH TEXAS...A BOWING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDSOUTH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ORIENTED FROM NORTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ELEVATED...LIKELY AS HIGH AS IT IS THIS EVENING. AS THE BOW
ACCELERATES TO THE EAST...STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE LOOKS
POSSIBLE...IF NOT LIKELY...ALONG WITH SEVERE HAIL. TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...EMBEDDED IN THE LINE...MOST LIKELY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ANY KINKS IN THE LINE. ADDITIONALLY...ALTHOUGH
NOT HIGHLY EXPECTED...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
BOW POSING A HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.

FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN...AND MAY BECOME THE
PRIMARY CONCERN BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. SOME OF THE
MIDSOUTH...ESPECIALLY NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE HAS
ALREADY RECEIVED 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...LIKELY RESULTING IN AT LEAST LOCALIZED
FLOODING. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...IT WOULD BE A GOOD
IDEA TO TAKE ACTION NOW TO ENSURE YOUR SAFETY. EXTENDED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE MIDSOUTH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...RAIN CHANCES AS WELL
AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED...ALTHOUGH WITH THE LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THEY SHOULD NOT BE AS ORGANIZED. EXPECT
SUMMERTIME TYPE PULSE STORMS DRIVEN MOSTLY BY DAYTIME HEATING. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND PW`S WILL REMAIN
AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO RAIN WILL BE HEAVY WHERE IT FALLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE UPPER 80S. HOWEVER...WITH
SUCH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE...AND RAIN EXPECTED...WILL UNDERCUT THOSE
NUMBERS SLIGHTLY AND KEEP READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

DON`T SEE MUCH CHANCE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES MAY TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER AS HEIGHTS FALL A BIT...BUT
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RAINFALL CHANCES AND THE THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS COULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

A WEAKENING LINE OF SHRAS/TSRAS SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
THIS LINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY AN AREA OF RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDS WILL DETERIORATE
TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AND CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT TO VFR ON TUESDAY. SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUSTS ON TUESDAY.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     TUNICA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-
     PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-
     TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-MADISON-MCNAIRY-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 260428
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1128 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...

A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS BY 10 PM. THE LINE
IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS A GUST FRONT IS
STARTING TO MOVE OUT AHEAD OF AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LINE. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. BEST TIMING WILL BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
FLASH FLOODING MAY BE THE BIGGER ISSUES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WILL
ONLY UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

WE REMAIN IN A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN DESPITE A CURRENT TEMPORARY
LULL IN ACTIVITY. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS RECOVERED NICELY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH RAPID DESTABILIZATION FARTHER
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH. LAPS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS FEATURE CAPES AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG IN EAST
ARKANSAS...WITH LI`S AS LOW AS -4.5C. BY SUNSET...EXPECT TO SEE
SIMILAR VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. WELL UPSTREAM OVER
NORTH TEXAS...A BOWING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDSOUTH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ORIENTED FROM NORTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ELEVATED...LIKELY AS HIGH AS IT IS THIS EVENING. AS THE BOW
ACCELERATES TO THE EAST...STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE LOOKS
POSSIBLE...IF NOT LIKELY...ALONG WITH SEVERE HAIL. TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...EMBEDDED IN THE LINE...MOST LIKELY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ANY KINKS IN THE LINE. ADDITIONALLY...ALTHOUGH
NOT HIGHLY EXPECTED...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
BOW POSING A HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.

FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN...AND MAY BECOME THE
PRIMARY CONCERN BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. SOME OF THE
MIDSOUTH...ESPECIALLY NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE HAS
ALREADY RECEIVED 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...LIKELY RESULTING IN AT LEAST LOCALIZED
FLOODING. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...IT WOULD BE A GOOD
IDEA TO TAKE ACTION NOW TO ENSURE YOUR SAFETY. EXTENDED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE MIDSOUTH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...RAIN CHANCES AS WELL
AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED...ALTHOUGH WITH THE LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THEY SHOULD NOT BE AS ORGANIZED. EXPECT
SUMMERTIME TYPE PULSE STORMS DRIVEN MOSTLY BY DAYTIME HEATING. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND PW`S WILL REMAIN
AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO RAIN WILL BE HEAVY WHERE IT FALLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE UPPER 80S. HOWEVER...WITH
SUCH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE...AND RAIN EXPECTED...WILL UNDERCUT THOSE
NUMBERS SLIGHTLY AND KEEP READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

DON`T SEE MUCH CHANCE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES MAY TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER AS HEIGHTS FALL A BIT...BUT
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RAINFALL CHANCES AND THE THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS COULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

A WEAKENING LINE OF SHRAS/TSRAS SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
THIS LINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY AN AREA OF RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDS WILL DETERIORATE
TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AND CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT TO VFR ON TUESDAY. SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUSTS ON TUESDAY.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     TUNICA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-
     PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-
     TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-MADISON-MCNAIRY-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 260428
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1128 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...

A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS BY 10 PM. THE LINE
IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS A GUST FRONT IS
STARTING TO MOVE OUT AHEAD OF AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LINE. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. BEST TIMING WILL BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
FLASH FLOODING MAY BE THE BIGGER ISSUES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WILL
ONLY UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

WE REMAIN IN A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN DESPITE A CURRENT TEMPORARY
LULL IN ACTIVITY. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS RECOVERED NICELY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH RAPID DESTABILIZATION FARTHER
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH. LAPS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS FEATURE CAPES AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG IN EAST
ARKANSAS...WITH LI`S AS LOW AS -4.5C. BY SUNSET...EXPECT TO SEE
SIMILAR VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. WELL UPSTREAM OVER
NORTH TEXAS...A BOWING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDSOUTH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ORIENTED FROM NORTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ELEVATED...LIKELY AS HIGH AS IT IS THIS EVENING. AS THE BOW
ACCELERATES TO THE EAST...STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE LOOKS
POSSIBLE...IF NOT LIKELY...ALONG WITH SEVERE HAIL. TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...EMBEDDED IN THE LINE...MOST LIKELY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ANY KINKS IN THE LINE. ADDITIONALLY...ALTHOUGH
NOT HIGHLY EXPECTED...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
BOW POSING A HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.

FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN...AND MAY BECOME THE
PRIMARY CONCERN BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. SOME OF THE
MIDSOUTH...ESPECIALLY NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE HAS
ALREADY RECEIVED 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...LIKELY RESULTING IN AT LEAST LOCALIZED
FLOODING. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...IT WOULD BE A GOOD
IDEA TO TAKE ACTION NOW TO ENSURE YOUR SAFETY. EXTENDED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE MIDSOUTH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...RAIN CHANCES AS WELL
AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED...ALTHOUGH WITH THE LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THEY SHOULD NOT BE AS ORGANIZED. EXPECT
SUMMERTIME TYPE PULSE STORMS DRIVEN MOSTLY BY DAYTIME HEATING. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND PW`S WILL REMAIN
AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO RAIN WILL BE HEAVY WHERE IT FALLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE UPPER 80S. HOWEVER...WITH
SUCH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE...AND RAIN EXPECTED...WILL UNDERCUT THOSE
NUMBERS SLIGHTLY AND KEEP READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

DON`T SEE MUCH CHANCE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES MAY TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER AS HEIGHTS FALL A BIT...BUT
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RAINFALL CHANCES AND THE THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS COULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

A WEAKENING LINE OF SHRAS/TSRAS SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
THIS LINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY AN AREA OF RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDS WILL DETERIORATE
TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AND CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT TO VFR ON TUESDAY. SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUSTS ON TUESDAY.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     TUNICA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-
     PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-
     TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-MADISON-MCNAIRY-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 260258 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
958 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
PER SHWRS LEAVING THE MID STATE...AND WITH NO INDICATIONS FROM SHORT
RANGE MODELS OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING BACK INTO MID STATE UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT...REMOVED MENTION OF EVENING SHWRS FROM THE SUITE OF FORECAST
PRODUCTS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 709 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...
PER REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OBSERVATIONS TRENDS...ALONG
WITH SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...SOME LINGERING SHWRS ACROSS THE FAR
MOST ERN PLATEAU COUNTIES THRU THE EVENING HRS...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
REMAINDER OF MID STATE. BELIEVE WITH WINDS DYING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT...
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHWRS
ACROSS UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION THRU THE FIRST FEW HRS AFTER MIDNIGHT ALSO.
NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD APPROACH THE TN RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED
/DIRECTION GRIDS. HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS ACCORDINGLY...
INCLUDING REMOVING THE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ZONE GROUPING FROM THE ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 637 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE. ONE WAVE OF SHRA/TSRA WAS
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF MID TN THIS EVENING. WE DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. LOTS OF RESIDUAL
MOISTURE...SO PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH BR CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT WAVE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY
MORNING WITH MAINLY MVFR THROUGH MIDDAY. S WINDS WILL
CONTINUE...AROUND 08KT OVERNIGHT...AND 10G22KT TUESDAY.

13

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 221 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...A PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH A FEW STRONGER
CELLS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN PARTS. HRRR HAS PERFORMED QUITE
WELL TODAY, AND THE SHORT-RANGE MODEL HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
DECREASE IN THE ACTIVITY FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING, SO
AM SPLITTING TONIGHT`S POP GRID INTO 6-HOUR INCREMENTS, WITH
REDUCED POP`S FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z. NAM SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOMORROW MORNING ALONG WITH THE NEXT WAVE OF
MOISTURE, THEREBY PUSHING THE DRY WEDGE NORTHWARD AND BRINGING
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POP`S BACK IN. SPC IS KEEPING THE ENTIRE MID
STATE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT, AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MAINLY DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS, WITH VERY LITTLE AIR MASS CHANGE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY`S ANTICIPATED SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE, THE UPPER PATTERN BREAKS DOWN INTO A MUCH WEAKER FLOW,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHING ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST, VERY
SUMMER-LIKE. WE MAY SEE A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT AT
THIS POINT THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TO THE POINT THAT
ANY CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING IS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

ROSE

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 260258 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
958 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
PER SHWRS LEAVING THE MID STATE...AND WITH NO INDICATIONS FROM SHORT
RANGE MODELS OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING BACK INTO MID STATE UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT...REMOVED MENTION OF EVENING SHWRS FROM THE SUITE OF FORECAST
PRODUCTS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 709 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...
PER REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OBSERVATIONS TRENDS...ALONG
WITH SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...SOME LINGERING SHWRS ACROSS THE FAR
MOST ERN PLATEAU COUNTIES THRU THE EVENING HRS...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
REMAINDER OF MID STATE. BELIEVE WITH WINDS DYING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT...
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHWRS
ACROSS UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION THRU THE FIRST FEW HRS AFTER MIDNIGHT ALSO.
NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD APPROACH THE TN RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED
/DIRECTION GRIDS. HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS ACCORDINGLY...
INCLUDING REMOVING THE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ZONE GROUPING FROM THE ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 637 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE. ONE WAVE OF SHRA/TSRA WAS
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF MID TN THIS EVENING. WE DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. LOTS OF RESIDUAL
MOISTURE...SO PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH BR CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT WAVE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY
MORNING WITH MAINLY MVFR THROUGH MIDDAY. S WINDS WILL
CONTINUE...AROUND 08KT OVERNIGHT...AND 10G22KT TUESDAY.

13

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 221 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...A PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH A FEW STRONGER
CELLS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN PARTS. HRRR HAS PERFORMED QUITE
WELL TODAY, AND THE SHORT-RANGE MODEL HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
DECREASE IN THE ACTIVITY FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING, SO
AM SPLITTING TONIGHT`S POP GRID INTO 6-HOUR INCREMENTS, WITH
REDUCED POP`S FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z. NAM SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOMORROW MORNING ALONG WITH THE NEXT WAVE OF
MOISTURE, THEREBY PUSHING THE DRY WEDGE NORTHWARD AND BRINGING
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POP`S BACK IN. SPC IS KEEPING THE ENTIRE MID
STATE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT, AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MAINLY DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS, WITH VERY LITTLE AIR MASS CHANGE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY`S ANTICIPATED SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE, THE UPPER PATTERN BREAKS DOWN INTO A MUCH WEAKER FLOW,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHING ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST, VERY
SUMMER-LIKE. WE MAY SEE A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT AT
THIS POINT THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TO THE POINT THAT
ANY CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING IS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

ROSE

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 260258 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
958 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
PER SHWRS LEAVING THE MID STATE...AND WITH NO INDICATIONS FROM SHORT
RANGE MODELS OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING BACK INTO MID STATE UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT...REMOVED MENTION OF EVENING SHWRS FROM THE SUITE OF FORECAST
PRODUCTS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 709 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...
PER REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OBSERVATIONS TRENDS...ALONG
WITH SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...SOME LINGERING SHWRS ACROSS THE FAR
MOST ERN PLATEAU COUNTIES THRU THE EVENING HRS...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
REMAINDER OF MID STATE. BELIEVE WITH WINDS DYING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT...
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHWRS
ACROSS UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION THRU THE FIRST FEW HRS AFTER MIDNIGHT ALSO.
NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD APPROACH THE TN RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED
/DIRECTION GRIDS. HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS ACCORDINGLY...
INCLUDING REMOVING THE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ZONE GROUPING FROM THE ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 637 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE. ONE WAVE OF SHRA/TSRA WAS
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF MID TN THIS EVENING. WE DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. LOTS OF RESIDUAL
MOISTURE...SO PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH BR CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT WAVE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY
MORNING WITH MAINLY MVFR THROUGH MIDDAY. S WINDS WILL
CONTINUE...AROUND 08KT OVERNIGHT...AND 10G22KT TUESDAY.

13

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 221 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...A PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH A FEW STRONGER
CELLS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN PARTS. HRRR HAS PERFORMED QUITE
WELL TODAY, AND THE SHORT-RANGE MODEL HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
DECREASE IN THE ACTIVITY FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING, SO
AM SPLITTING TONIGHT`S POP GRID INTO 6-HOUR INCREMENTS, WITH
REDUCED POP`S FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z. NAM SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOMORROW MORNING ALONG WITH THE NEXT WAVE OF
MOISTURE, THEREBY PUSHING THE DRY WEDGE NORTHWARD AND BRINGING
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POP`S BACK IN. SPC IS KEEPING THE ENTIRE MID
STATE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT, AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MAINLY DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS, WITH VERY LITTLE AIR MASS CHANGE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY`S ANTICIPATED SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE, THE UPPER PATTERN BREAKS DOWN INTO A MUCH WEAKER FLOW,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHING ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST, VERY
SUMMER-LIKE. WE MAY SEE A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT AT
THIS POINT THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TO THE POINT THAT
ANY CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING IS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

ROSE

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 260258 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
958 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
PER SHWRS LEAVING THE MID STATE...AND WITH NO INDICATIONS FROM SHORT
RANGE MODELS OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING BACK INTO MID STATE UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT...REMOVED MENTION OF EVENING SHWRS FROM THE SUITE OF FORECAST
PRODUCTS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 709 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...
PER REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OBSERVATIONS TRENDS...ALONG
WITH SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...SOME LINGERING SHWRS ACROSS THE FAR
MOST ERN PLATEAU COUNTIES THRU THE EVENING HRS...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
REMAINDER OF MID STATE. BELIEVE WITH WINDS DYING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT...
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHWRS
ACROSS UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION THRU THE FIRST FEW HRS AFTER MIDNIGHT ALSO.
NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD APPROACH THE TN RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED
/DIRECTION GRIDS. HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS ACCORDINGLY...
INCLUDING REMOVING THE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ZONE GROUPING FROM THE ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 637 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE. ONE WAVE OF SHRA/TSRA WAS
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF MID TN THIS EVENING. WE DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. LOTS OF RESIDUAL
MOISTURE...SO PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH BR CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT WAVE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY
MORNING WITH MAINLY MVFR THROUGH MIDDAY. S WINDS WILL
CONTINUE...AROUND 08KT OVERNIGHT...AND 10G22KT TUESDAY.

13

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 221 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...A PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH A FEW STRONGER
CELLS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN PARTS. HRRR HAS PERFORMED QUITE
WELL TODAY, AND THE SHORT-RANGE MODEL HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
DECREASE IN THE ACTIVITY FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING, SO
AM SPLITTING TONIGHT`S POP GRID INTO 6-HOUR INCREMENTS, WITH
REDUCED POP`S FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z. NAM SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOMORROW MORNING ALONG WITH THE NEXT WAVE OF
MOISTURE, THEREBY PUSHING THE DRY WEDGE NORTHWARD AND BRINGING
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POP`S BACK IN. SPC IS KEEPING THE ENTIRE MID
STATE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT, AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MAINLY DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS, WITH VERY LITTLE AIR MASS CHANGE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY`S ANTICIPATED SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE, THE UPPER PATTERN BREAKS DOWN INTO A MUCH WEAKER FLOW,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHING ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST, VERY
SUMMER-LIKE. WE MAY SEE A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT AT
THIS POINT THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TO THE POINT THAT
ANY CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING IS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

ROSE

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 260258 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
958 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
PER SHWRS LEAVING THE MID STATE...AND WITH NO INDICATIONS FROM SHORT
RANGE MODELS OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING BACK INTO MID STATE UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT...REMOVED MENTION OF EVENING SHWRS FROM THE SUITE OF FORECAST
PRODUCTS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 709 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...
PER REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OBSERVATIONS TRENDS...ALONG
WITH SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...SOME LINGERING SHWRS ACROSS THE FAR
MOST ERN PLATEAU COUNTIES THRU THE EVENING HRS...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
REMAINDER OF MID STATE. BELIEVE WITH WINDS DYING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT...
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHWRS
ACROSS UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION THRU THE FIRST FEW HRS AFTER MIDNIGHT ALSO.
NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD APPROACH THE TN RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED
/DIRECTION GRIDS. HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS ACCORDINGLY...
INCLUDING REMOVING THE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ZONE GROUPING FROM THE ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 637 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE. ONE WAVE OF SHRA/TSRA WAS
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF MID TN THIS EVENING. WE DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. LOTS OF RESIDUAL
MOISTURE...SO PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH BR CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT WAVE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY
MORNING WITH MAINLY MVFR THROUGH MIDDAY. S WINDS WILL
CONTINUE...AROUND 08KT OVERNIGHT...AND 10G22KT TUESDAY.

13

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 221 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...A PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH A FEW STRONGER
CELLS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN PARTS. HRRR HAS PERFORMED QUITE
WELL TODAY, AND THE SHORT-RANGE MODEL HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
DECREASE IN THE ACTIVITY FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING, SO
AM SPLITTING TONIGHT`S POP GRID INTO 6-HOUR INCREMENTS, WITH
REDUCED POP`S FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z. NAM SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOMORROW MORNING ALONG WITH THE NEXT WAVE OF
MOISTURE, THEREBY PUSHING THE DRY WEDGE NORTHWARD AND BRINGING
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POP`S BACK IN. SPC IS KEEPING THE ENTIRE MID
STATE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT, AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MAINLY DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS, WITH VERY LITTLE AIR MASS CHANGE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY`S ANTICIPATED SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE, THE UPPER PATTERN BREAKS DOWN INTO A MUCH WEAKER FLOW,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHING ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST, VERY
SUMMER-LIKE. WE MAY SEE A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT AT
THIS POINT THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TO THE POINT THAT
ANY CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING IS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

ROSE

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 260258 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
958 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
PER SHWRS LEAVING THE MID STATE...AND WITH NO INDICATIONS FROM SHORT
RANGE MODELS OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING BACK INTO MID STATE UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT...REMOVED MENTION OF EVENING SHWRS FROM THE SUITE OF FORECAST
PRODUCTS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 709 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...
PER REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OBSERVATIONS TRENDS...ALONG
WITH SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...SOME LINGERING SHWRS ACROSS THE FAR
MOST ERN PLATEAU COUNTIES THRU THE EVENING HRS...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
REMAINDER OF MID STATE. BELIEVE WITH WINDS DYING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT...
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHWRS
ACROSS UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION THRU THE FIRST FEW HRS AFTER MIDNIGHT ALSO.
NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD APPROACH THE TN RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED
/DIRECTION GRIDS. HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS ACCORDINGLY...
INCLUDING REMOVING THE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ZONE GROUPING FROM THE ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 637 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE. ONE WAVE OF SHRA/TSRA WAS
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF MID TN THIS EVENING. WE DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. LOTS OF RESIDUAL
MOISTURE...SO PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH BR CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT WAVE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY
MORNING WITH MAINLY MVFR THROUGH MIDDAY. S WINDS WILL
CONTINUE...AROUND 08KT OVERNIGHT...AND 10G22KT TUESDAY.

13

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 221 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...A PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH A FEW STRONGER
CELLS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN PARTS. HRRR HAS PERFORMED QUITE
WELL TODAY, AND THE SHORT-RANGE MODEL HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
DECREASE IN THE ACTIVITY FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING, SO
AM SPLITTING TONIGHT`S POP GRID INTO 6-HOUR INCREMENTS, WITH
REDUCED POP`S FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z. NAM SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOMORROW MORNING ALONG WITH THE NEXT WAVE OF
MOISTURE, THEREBY PUSHING THE DRY WEDGE NORTHWARD AND BRINGING
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POP`S BACK IN. SPC IS KEEPING THE ENTIRE MID
STATE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT, AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MAINLY DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS, WITH VERY LITTLE AIR MASS CHANGE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY`S ANTICIPATED SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE, THE UPPER PATTERN BREAKS DOWN INTO A MUCH WEAKER FLOW,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHING ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST, VERY
SUMMER-LIKE. WE MAY SEE A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT AT
THIS POINT THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TO THE POINT THAT
ANY CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING IS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

ROSE

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KMRX 260235
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1035 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED A LITTLE
QUICKER THAN EARLY ANTICIPATED. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS
TO REFLECT THIS. THERE IS STILL A BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTH OUT
OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA THAT WILL KEEP OUR SWNC COUNTIES PRETTY WET
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT ELSEWHERE RELATIVELY DRY FOR THE TIME
BEING. ALSO TOOK OUT THUNDER EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SWNC...UNTIL EARLY MORNING WHEN NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP. ZONES OUT SOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  82  67  81 /  60  70  60  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  82  65  80 /  60  70  60  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       65  82  66  80 /  60  70  60  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  80  63  81 /  30  60  60  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 260235
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1035 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED A LITTLE
QUICKER THAN EARLY ANTICIPATED. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS
TO REFLECT THIS. THERE IS STILL A BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTH OUT
OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA THAT WILL KEEP OUR SWNC COUNTIES PRETTY WET
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT ELSEWHERE RELATIVELY DRY FOR THE TIME
BEING. ALSO TOOK OUT THUNDER EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SWNC...UNTIL EARLY MORNING WHEN NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP. ZONES OUT SOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  82  67  81 /  60  70  60  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  82  65  80 /  60  70  60  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       65  82  66  80 /  60  70  60  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  80  63  81 /  30  60  60  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR



000
FXUS64 KMRX 260235
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1035 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED A LITTLE
QUICKER THAN EARLY ANTICIPATED. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS
TO REFLECT THIS. THERE IS STILL A BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTH OUT
OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA THAT WILL KEEP OUR SWNC COUNTIES PRETTY WET
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT ELSEWHERE RELATIVELY DRY FOR THE TIME
BEING. ALSO TOOK OUT THUNDER EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SWNC...UNTIL EARLY MORNING WHEN NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP. ZONES OUT SOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  82  67  81 /  60  70  60  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  82  65  80 /  60  70  60  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       65  82  66  80 /  60  70  60  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  80  63  81 /  30  60  60  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR



000
FXUS64 KMRX 260235
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1035 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED A LITTLE
QUICKER THAN EARLY ANTICIPATED. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS
TO REFLECT THIS. THERE IS STILL A BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTH OUT
OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA THAT WILL KEEP OUR SWNC COUNTIES PRETTY WET
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT ELSEWHERE RELATIVELY DRY FOR THE TIME
BEING. ALSO TOOK OUT THUNDER EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SWNC...UNTIL EARLY MORNING WHEN NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP. ZONES OUT SOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  82  67  81 /  60  70  60  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  82  65  80 /  60  70  60  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       65  82  66  80 /  60  70  60  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  80  63  81 /  30  60  60  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR



000
FXUS64 KMRX 260235
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1035 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED A LITTLE
QUICKER THAN EARLY ANTICIPATED. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS
TO REFLECT THIS. THERE IS STILL A BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTH OUT
OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA THAT WILL KEEP OUR SWNC COUNTIES PRETTY WET
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT ELSEWHERE RELATIVELY DRY FOR THE TIME
BEING. ALSO TOOK OUT THUNDER EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SWNC...UNTIL EARLY MORNING WHEN NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP. ZONES OUT SOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  82  67  81 /  60  70  60  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  82  65  80 /  60  70  60  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       65  82  66  80 /  60  70  60  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  80  63  81 /  30  60  60  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR



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