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000
FXUS64 KOHX 012338
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
638 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...

00Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE TOMORROW. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD
WILL BE WINDS...WITH SPEEDS SUSTAINED AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS AT TIMES OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES WILL MOVE IN AS EARLY AS THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS...WITH BETTER CHANCES DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW. STRONG WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 152 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH HAS BEGUN ITS EASTWARD RETREAT WITH
WINDS NOW SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. AIR ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE REMAINS ABNORMALLY DRY, WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE
20`S EAST OF BNA. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION AND THE UPPER FLOW TURNS CYCLONIC. THERE IS A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF STORMS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS A STRONG
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE MAIN
EVENT WILL BE FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT
OF CAPE BOTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SO THE
COMBINATION OF GOOD INSTABILITY AND THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE
BOUNDARY DOES HELP SUPPORT THE SLIGHT RISK WE ARE CURRENTLY UNDER
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. QPF SUGGESTS SOME HEAVY RAIN ON FRIDAY,
BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE QUICK ENOUGH SO THAT FLOODING CONCERNS
ARE MINIMAL. ALSO, LOOK FOR SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW, AND EVEN MORE SO ON FRIDAY SO THAT A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH THE FROPA. EXPECT MUCH COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND,
WITH SATURDAY NIGHT BEING THE COOLEST NIGHT, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THIS TIME.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KOHX 012338
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
638 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...

00Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE TOMORROW. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD
WILL BE WINDS...WITH SPEEDS SUSTAINED AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS AT TIMES OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES WILL MOVE IN AS EARLY AS THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS...WITH BETTER CHANCES DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW. STRONG WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 152 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH HAS BEGUN ITS EASTWARD RETREAT WITH
WINDS NOW SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. AIR ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE REMAINS ABNORMALLY DRY, WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE
20`S EAST OF BNA. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION AND THE UPPER FLOW TURNS CYCLONIC. THERE IS A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF STORMS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS A STRONG
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE MAIN
EVENT WILL BE FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT
OF CAPE BOTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SO THE
COMBINATION OF GOOD INSTABILITY AND THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE
BOUNDARY DOES HELP SUPPORT THE SLIGHT RISK WE ARE CURRENTLY UNDER
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. QPF SUGGESTS SOME HEAVY RAIN ON FRIDAY,
BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE QUICK ENOUGH SO THAT FLOODING CONCERNS
ARE MINIMAL. ALSO, LOOK FOR SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW, AND EVEN MORE SO ON FRIDAY SO THAT A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH THE FROPA. EXPECT MUCH COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND,
WITH SATURDAY NIGHT BEING THE COOLEST NIGHT, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THIS TIME.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMRX 012333
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
733 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TYS AND TRI THROUGH THE
PERIOD. VFR AT CHA UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING...THEN MVFR AS LOWER CIGS
MOVE IN WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BREAK
TO VFR AT CHA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INCLUDED VCTS AT CHA AND TYS AS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
PRODUCE SOME AREA THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 012333
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
733 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TYS AND TRI THROUGH THE
PERIOD. VFR AT CHA UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING...THEN MVFR AS LOWER CIGS
MOVE IN WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BREAK
TO VFR AT CHA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INCLUDED VCTS AT CHA AND TYS AS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
PRODUCE SOME AREA THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 012333
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
733 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TYS AND TRI THROUGH THE
PERIOD. VFR AT CHA UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING...THEN MVFR AS LOWER CIGS
MOVE IN WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BREAK
TO VFR AT CHA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INCLUDED VCTS AT CHA AND TYS AS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
PRODUCE SOME AREA THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 012333
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
733 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TYS AND TRI THROUGH THE
PERIOD. VFR AT CHA UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING...THEN MVFR AS LOWER CIGS
MOVE IN WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BREAK
TO VFR AT CHA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INCLUDED VCTS AT CHA AND TYS AS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
PRODUCE SOME AREA THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMEG 012323
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
623 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHEAST MS.
THE FRONT WAS EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE DEW POINTS RANGING FROM 32
DEGREES AT PARIS TN TO 62 DEGREES AT MEMPHIS. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WAS INCREASING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...
RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MO AND NORTHWEST AR SPARKING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST MO ATTM.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH FREQUENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH MOSTLY MILD TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH BRIEFLY COOLER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
TONIGHT ENCOUNTERING THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. INCREASED THE POPS SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS.

THURSDAY...THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE FULLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND
80 DEGREES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY AS
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TURING TO
STRONG NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

COLD AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
SUNNY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR AS WARMER...MORE MOIST...AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR SPREADS
BACK ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO
CAUSE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY MID-WEEK...THE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE REGION IN REMAINING IN THE
WARM SECTOR.

JCL

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

CURRENTLY...AN ARC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING JUST
NORTHEAST OF JBR SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MKL. THIS BAND SHOULD PUSH
THROUGH MKL OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS WITH VCTS LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD. VCTS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM ALL OTHER TAF SITES AT THIS
TIME. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY PICK UP OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST TO ABOVE 10 KTS. A BKN DECK NEAR 5000 FT WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WELL. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE
TOMORROW AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER 12Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. EXPECT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW AT THIS TIME CONCERNING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SO WILL DEFER TO THE 06Z TAFS TO BETTER TIME THAT IF
NECESSARY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 012323
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
623 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHEAST MS.
THE FRONT WAS EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE DEW POINTS RANGING FROM 32
DEGREES AT PARIS TN TO 62 DEGREES AT MEMPHIS. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WAS INCREASING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...
RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MO AND NORTHWEST AR SPARKING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST MO ATTM.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH FREQUENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH MOSTLY MILD TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH BRIEFLY COOLER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
TONIGHT ENCOUNTERING THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. INCREASED THE POPS SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS.

THURSDAY...THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE FULLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND
80 DEGREES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY AS
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TURING TO
STRONG NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

COLD AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
SUNNY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR AS WARMER...MORE MOIST...AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR SPREADS
BACK ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO
CAUSE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY MID-WEEK...THE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE REGION IN REMAINING IN THE
WARM SECTOR.

JCL

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

CURRENTLY...AN ARC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING JUST
NORTHEAST OF JBR SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MKL. THIS BAND SHOULD PUSH
THROUGH MKL OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS WITH VCTS LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD. VCTS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM ALL OTHER TAF SITES AT THIS
TIME. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY PICK UP OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST TO ABOVE 10 KTS. A BKN DECK NEAR 5000 FT WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WELL. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE
TOMORROW AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER 12Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. EXPECT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW AT THIS TIME CONCERNING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SO WILL DEFER TO THE 06Z TAFS TO BETTER TIME THAT IF
NECESSARY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 011925
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
225 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHEAST MS.
THE FRONT WAS EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE DEW POINTS RANGING FROM 32
DEGREES AT PARIS TN TO 62 DEGREES AT MEMPHIS. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WAS INCREASING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...
RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MO AND NORTHWEST AR SPARKING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST MO ATTM.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH FREQUENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH MOSTLY MILD TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH BRIEFLY COOLER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
TONIGHT ENCOUNTERING THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. INCREASED THE POPS SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS.

THURSDAY...THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE FULLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND
80 DEGREES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY AS
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TURING TO
STRONG NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

COLD AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
SUNNY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR AS WARMER...MORE MOIST...AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR SPREADS
BACK ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO
CAUSE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY MID-WEEK...THE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE REGION IN REMAINING IN THE
WARM SECTOR.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CURRENTLY AT LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR JBR WHERE MVFR CIGS PERSIST.
CIGS AT JBR ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WARM
FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...EXPECT THAT WE MAY SEE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FORM NEAR THIS BOUNDARY
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING AND COVERAGE ARE STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN SO
WENT WITH JUST VCTS AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR JBR WHERE SFC
BASED INSTABILITY IS SLIGHTLY MORE...AT JBR WENT TEMPO FOR -TSRA
BETWEEN 20-23Z...STARTED VCTS A TAD LATER AT MKL/TUP AND WENT SLIGHTLY
LONGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ENERGY
WILL BE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DUE TO THIS BROUGHT A
LATER TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA IN AT JBR...AND REINTRODUCED VCTS AT
MEM FOR 06Z LINE.

MAY SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF CIGS IN THE 1000-2000FT RANGE BTN 10-16Z
ON THURSDAY...WITH STILL INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH. BROUGHT AT LEAST A TEMPO IN FOR MVFR CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT MKL IN THE MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. WINDS GUSTS INCREASE TO 20-30KT ACROSS THE AREA BY
18Z ON THURSDAY.

NGU

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 011925
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
225 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHEAST MS.
THE FRONT WAS EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE DEW POINTS RANGING FROM 32
DEGREES AT PARIS TN TO 62 DEGREES AT MEMPHIS. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WAS INCREASING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...
RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MO AND NORTHWEST AR SPARKING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST MO ATTM.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH FREQUENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH MOSTLY MILD TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH BRIEFLY COOLER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
TONIGHT ENCOUNTERING THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. INCREASED THE POPS SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS.

THURSDAY...THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE FULLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND
80 DEGREES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY AS
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TURING TO
STRONG NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

COLD AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
SUNNY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR AS WARMER...MORE MOIST...AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR SPREADS
BACK ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO
CAUSE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY MID-WEEK...THE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE REGION IN REMAINING IN THE
WARM SECTOR.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CURRENTLY AT LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR JBR WHERE MVFR CIGS PERSIST.
CIGS AT JBR ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WARM
FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...EXPECT THAT WE MAY SEE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FORM NEAR THIS BOUNDARY
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING AND COVERAGE ARE STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN SO
WENT WITH JUST VCTS AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR JBR WHERE SFC
BASED INSTABILITY IS SLIGHTLY MORE...AT JBR WENT TEMPO FOR -TSRA
BETWEEN 20-23Z...STARTED VCTS A TAD LATER AT MKL/TUP AND WENT SLIGHTLY
LONGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ENERGY
WILL BE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DUE TO THIS BROUGHT A
LATER TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA IN AT JBR...AND REINTRODUCED VCTS AT
MEM FOR 06Z LINE.

MAY SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF CIGS IN THE 1000-2000FT RANGE BTN 10-16Z
ON THURSDAY...WITH STILL INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH. BROUGHT AT LEAST A TEMPO IN FOR MVFR CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT MKL IN THE MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. WINDS GUSTS INCREASE TO 20-30KT ACROSS THE AREA BY
18Z ON THURSDAY.

NGU

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 011911
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
308 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL
BE DEVELOPING TONIGHT AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS EVENING FROM SW TO NE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE 850 MB WARM FRONT/THETA-E BOUNDARY. WILL HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT IN SOUTHERN AREAS BEHIND
THIS FEATURE. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...AND WILL
MENTION A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A S-SW 850 MB FLOW AROUND 40 KTS
WILL PRODUCE SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY...AND THIS
AREA WILL HAVE THE LOWEST POPS AND WARMEST HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW. THE
CIN AREA IS STRONGER NORTH AS WELL...SO WILL ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH NO TSTMS THERE. AT THIS TIME A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE MOUNTAINS APPEARS TO BE JUST BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR
TOMORROW...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REASSESS IF WINDS ALOFT
TREND STRONGER.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND WEAK INSTABILITY.  AN UNORGANIZED BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE A STRAY THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  MAIN SYSTEM OF CONCERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE A COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.  WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE AIR MASS WILL
BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE.  DECENT 850MB JET AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  COULD SEE LIMITED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH.  THE MAIN THREAT
SHOULD BE STRONG WINDS.  SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND FOR
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS.  WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UNSETTLE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             54  72  59  75 /  20  50  20  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  50  71  58  73 /  20  40  30  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       50  70  58  73 /  20  40  30  70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              41  73  55  70 /  10  20  40  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 011911
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
308 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL
BE DEVELOPING TONIGHT AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS EVENING FROM SW TO NE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE 850 MB WARM FRONT/THETA-E BOUNDARY. WILL HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT IN SOUTHERN AREAS BEHIND
THIS FEATURE. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...AND WILL
MENTION A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A S-SW 850 MB FLOW AROUND 40 KTS
WILL PRODUCE SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY...AND THIS
AREA WILL HAVE THE LOWEST POPS AND WARMEST HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW. THE
CIN AREA IS STRONGER NORTH AS WELL...SO WILL ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH NO TSTMS THERE. AT THIS TIME A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE MOUNTAINS APPEARS TO BE JUST BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR
TOMORROW...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REASSESS IF WINDS ALOFT
TREND STRONGER.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND WEAK INSTABILITY.  AN UNORGANIZED BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE A STRAY THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  MAIN SYSTEM OF CONCERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE A COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.  WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE AIR MASS WILL
BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE.  DECENT 850MB JET AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  COULD SEE LIMITED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH.  THE MAIN THREAT
SHOULD BE STRONG WINDS.  SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND FOR
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS.  WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UNSETTLE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             54  72  59  75 /  20  50  20  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  50  71  58  73 /  20  40  30  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       50  70  58  73 /  20  40  30  70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              41  73  55  70 /  10  20  40  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/MJB



000
FXUS64 KOHX 011852
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
152 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH HAS BEGUN ITS EASTWARD RETREAT WITH
WINDS NOW SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. AIR ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE REMAINS ABNORMALLY DRY, WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE
20`S EAST OF BNA. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION AND THE UPPER FLOW TURNS CYCLONIC. THERE IS A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF STORMS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS A STRONG
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE MAIN
EVENT WILL BE FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT
OF CAPE BOTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SO THE
COMBINATION OF GOOD INSTABILITY AND THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE
BOUNDARY DOES HELP SUPPORT THE SLIGHT RISK WE ARE CURRENTLY UNDER
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. QPF SUGGESTS SOME HEAVY RAIN ON FRIDAY,
BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE QUICK ENOUGH SO THAT FLOODING CONCERNS
ARE MINIMAL. ALSO, LOOK FOR SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW, AND EVEN MORE SO ON FRIDAY SO THAT A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH THE FROPA. EXPECT MUCH COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND,
WITH SATURDAY NIGHT BEING THE COOLEST NIGHT, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      56  78  61  75 /  30  50  50  70
CLARKSVILLE    55  74  63  67 /  30  50  70  80
CROSSVILLE     52  69  57  69 /  20  60  40  80
COLUMBIA       57  78  62  75 /  20  50  30  60
LAWRENCEBURG   57  77  61  74 /  20  50  30  60
WAVERLY        56  76  63  71 /  30  50  60  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




000
FXUS64 KOHX 011852
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
152 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH HAS BEGUN ITS EASTWARD RETREAT WITH
WINDS NOW SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. AIR ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE REMAINS ABNORMALLY DRY, WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE
20`S EAST OF BNA. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION AND THE UPPER FLOW TURNS CYCLONIC. THERE IS A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF STORMS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS A STRONG
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE MAIN
EVENT WILL BE FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT
OF CAPE BOTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SO THE
COMBINATION OF GOOD INSTABILITY AND THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE
BOUNDARY DOES HELP SUPPORT THE SLIGHT RISK WE ARE CURRENTLY UNDER
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. QPF SUGGESTS SOME HEAVY RAIN ON FRIDAY,
BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE QUICK ENOUGH SO THAT FLOODING CONCERNS
ARE MINIMAL. ALSO, LOOK FOR SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW, AND EVEN MORE SO ON FRIDAY SO THAT A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH THE FROPA. EXPECT MUCH COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND,
WITH SATURDAY NIGHT BEING THE COOLEST NIGHT, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      56  78  61  75 /  30  50  50  70
CLARKSVILLE    55  74  63  67 /  30  50  70  80
CROSSVILLE     52  69  57  69 /  20  60  40  80
COLUMBIA       57  78  62  75 /  20  50  30  60
LAWRENCEBURG   57  77  61  74 /  20  50  30  60
WAVERLY        56  76  63  71 /  30  50  60  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




000
FXUS64 KOHX 011852
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
152 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH HAS BEGUN ITS EASTWARD RETREAT WITH
WINDS NOW SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. AIR ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE REMAINS ABNORMALLY DRY, WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE
20`S EAST OF BNA. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION AND THE UPPER FLOW TURNS CYCLONIC. THERE IS A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF STORMS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS A STRONG
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE MAIN
EVENT WILL BE FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT
OF CAPE BOTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SO THE
COMBINATION OF GOOD INSTABILITY AND THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE
BOUNDARY DOES HELP SUPPORT THE SLIGHT RISK WE ARE CURRENTLY UNDER
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. QPF SUGGESTS SOME HEAVY RAIN ON FRIDAY,
BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE QUICK ENOUGH SO THAT FLOODING CONCERNS
ARE MINIMAL. ALSO, LOOK FOR SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW, AND EVEN MORE SO ON FRIDAY SO THAT A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH THE FROPA. EXPECT MUCH COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND,
WITH SATURDAY NIGHT BEING THE COOLEST NIGHT, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      56  78  61  75 /  30  50  50  70
CLARKSVILLE    55  74  63  67 /  30  50  70  80
CROSSVILLE     52  69  57  69 /  20  60  40  80
COLUMBIA       57  78  62  75 /  20  50  30  60
LAWRENCEBURG   57  77  61  74 /  20  50  30  60
WAVERLY        56  76  63  71 /  30  50  60  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




000
FXUS64 KOHX 011852
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
152 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH HAS BEGUN ITS EASTWARD RETREAT WITH
WINDS NOW SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. AIR ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE REMAINS ABNORMALLY DRY, WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE
20`S EAST OF BNA. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION AND THE UPPER FLOW TURNS CYCLONIC. THERE IS A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF STORMS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS A STRONG
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE MAIN
EVENT WILL BE FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT
OF CAPE BOTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SO THE
COMBINATION OF GOOD INSTABILITY AND THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE
BOUNDARY DOES HELP SUPPORT THE SLIGHT RISK WE ARE CURRENTLY UNDER
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. QPF SUGGESTS SOME HEAVY RAIN ON FRIDAY,
BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE QUICK ENOUGH SO THAT FLOODING CONCERNS
ARE MINIMAL. ALSO, LOOK FOR SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW, AND EVEN MORE SO ON FRIDAY SO THAT A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH THE FROPA. EXPECT MUCH COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND,
WITH SATURDAY NIGHT BEING THE COOLEST NIGHT, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      56  78  61  75 /  30  50  50  70
CLARKSVILLE    55  74  63  67 /  30  50  70  80
CROSSVILLE     52  69  57  69 /  20  60  40  80
COLUMBIA       57  78  62  75 /  20  50  30  60
LAWRENCEBURG   57  77  61  74 /  20  50  30  60
WAVERLY        56  76  63  71 /  30  50  60  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




000
FXUS64 KOHX 011852
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
152 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH HAS BEGUN ITS EASTWARD RETREAT WITH
WINDS NOW SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. AIR ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE REMAINS ABNORMALLY DRY, WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE
20`S EAST OF BNA. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION AND THE UPPER FLOW TURNS CYCLONIC. THERE IS A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF STORMS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS A STRONG
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE MAIN
EVENT WILL BE FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT
OF CAPE BOTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SO THE
COMBINATION OF GOOD INSTABILITY AND THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE
BOUNDARY DOES HELP SUPPORT THE SLIGHT RISK WE ARE CURRENTLY UNDER
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. QPF SUGGESTS SOME HEAVY RAIN ON FRIDAY,
BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE QUICK ENOUGH SO THAT FLOODING CONCERNS
ARE MINIMAL. ALSO, LOOK FOR SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW, AND EVEN MORE SO ON FRIDAY SO THAT A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH THE FROPA. EXPECT MUCH COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND,
WITH SATURDAY NIGHT BEING THE COOLEST NIGHT, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      56  78  61  75 /  30  50  50  70
CLARKSVILLE    55  74  63  67 /  30  50  70  80
CROSSVILLE     52  69  57  69 /  20  60  40  80
COLUMBIA       57  78  62  75 /  20  50  30  60
LAWRENCEBURG   57  77  61  74 /  20  50  30  60
WAVERLY        56  76  63  71 /  30  50  60  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




000
FXUS64 KOHX 011852
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
152 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH HAS BEGUN ITS EASTWARD RETREAT WITH
WINDS NOW SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. AIR ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE REMAINS ABNORMALLY DRY, WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE
20`S EAST OF BNA. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION AND THE UPPER FLOW TURNS CYCLONIC. THERE IS A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF STORMS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS A STRONG
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE MAIN
EVENT WILL BE FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT
OF CAPE BOTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SO THE
COMBINATION OF GOOD INSTABILITY AND THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE
BOUNDARY DOES HELP SUPPORT THE SLIGHT RISK WE ARE CURRENTLY UNDER
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. QPF SUGGESTS SOME HEAVY RAIN ON FRIDAY,
BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE QUICK ENOUGH SO THAT FLOODING CONCERNS
ARE MINIMAL. ALSO, LOOK FOR SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW, AND EVEN MORE SO ON FRIDAY SO THAT A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH THE FROPA. EXPECT MUCH COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND,
WITH SATURDAY NIGHT BEING THE COOLEST NIGHT, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      56  78  61  75 /  30  50  50  70
CLARKSVILLE    55  74  63  67 /  30  50  70  80
CROSSVILLE     52  69  57  69 /  20  60  40  80
COLUMBIA       57  78  62  75 /  20  50  30  60
LAWRENCEBURG   57  77  61  74 /  20  50  30  60
WAVERLY        56  76  63  71 /  30  50  60  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 011743
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1243 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...

18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

CHANGES EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
AREA TOWARD 12Z THU. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND A FEW
SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY THU MORNING. CIGS EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE 2500-3500FT RANGE...WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING
20-30KNTS AFTER 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

MORNING UPDATE...

JUST UPDATED THE MORNING OBS AND FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC OBS
SHOW A WARM FRONT ACROSS ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI SLOWLY MOVING
NORTHWARD. THAT WILL CREEP INTO OUR SWRN CWA AND POSSIBLY BE A
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS THERE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. CONTINUED
THE SLIGHT CHC POPS. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM MODELS REALLY DO NOT
INDICATE ANY CONVECTION UNTIL AFTER 12Z ACROSS THE WRN MIDDLE TN
AS THAT WARM FRONT REALLY GETS INTO OUR WRN AREAS AND THE LOW-
LEVEL JET STARTS TO KICK IN TOWARDS MORNING. BACKED OFF ON POPS
OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS...WE HAVE A HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN
FOR TODAY FOR AREAS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN MIDDLE TN. WINDS SHOULD
NOT GET OUT OF HAND THOUGH...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED TO THE MID 20 PERCENT RANGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR WX THROUGH TODAY WITH
MAINLY E WINDS 5-10KT. TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
REGION WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS BECOMING S 10-15KT. A FEW
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
POP/COVERAGE THROUGH 12Z SEEMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KOHX 011743
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1243 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...

18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

CHANGES EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
AREA TOWARD 12Z THU. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND A FEW
SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY THU MORNING. CIGS EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE 2500-3500FT RANGE...WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING
20-30KNTS AFTER 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

MORNING UPDATE...

JUST UPDATED THE MORNING OBS AND FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC OBS
SHOW A WARM FRONT ACROSS ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI SLOWLY MOVING
NORTHWARD. THAT WILL CREEP INTO OUR SWRN CWA AND POSSIBLY BE A
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS THERE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. CONTINUED
THE SLIGHT CHC POPS. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM MODELS REALLY DO NOT
INDICATE ANY CONVECTION UNTIL AFTER 12Z ACROSS THE WRN MIDDLE TN
AS THAT WARM FRONT REALLY GETS INTO OUR WRN AREAS AND THE LOW-
LEVEL JET STARTS TO KICK IN TOWARDS MORNING. BACKED OFF ON POPS
OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS...WE HAVE A HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN
FOR TODAY FOR AREAS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN MIDDLE TN. WINDS SHOULD
NOT GET OUT OF HAND THOUGH...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED TO THE MID 20 PERCENT RANGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR WX THROUGH TODAY WITH
MAINLY E WINDS 5-10KT. TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
REGION WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS BECOMING S 10-15KT. A FEW
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
POP/COVERAGE THROUGH 12Z SEEMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07






000
FXUS64 KOHX 011743
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1243 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...

18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

CHANGES EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
AREA TOWARD 12Z THU. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND A FEW
SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY THU MORNING. CIGS EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE 2500-3500FT RANGE...WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING
20-30KNTS AFTER 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

MORNING UPDATE...

JUST UPDATED THE MORNING OBS AND FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC OBS
SHOW A WARM FRONT ACROSS ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI SLOWLY MOVING
NORTHWARD. THAT WILL CREEP INTO OUR SWRN CWA AND POSSIBLY BE A
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS THERE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. CONTINUED
THE SLIGHT CHC POPS. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM MODELS REALLY DO NOT
INDICATE ANY CONVECTION UNTIL AFTER 12Z ACROSS THE WRN MIDDLE TN
AS THAT WARM FRONT REALLY GETS INTO OUR WRN AREAS AND THE LOW-
LEVEL JET STARTS TO KICK IN TOWARDS MORNING. BACKED OFF ON POPS
OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS...WE HAVE A HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN
FOR TODAY FOR AREAS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN MIDDLE TN. WINDS SHOULD
NOT GET OUT OF HAND THOUGH...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED TO THE MID 20 PERCENT RANGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR WX THROUGH TODAY WITH
MAINLY E WINDS 5-10KT. TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
REGION WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS BECOMING S 10-15KT. A FEW
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
POP/COVERAGE THROUGH 12Z SEEMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KOHX 011743
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1243 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...

18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

CHANGES EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
AREA TOWARD 12Z THU. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND A FEW
SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY THU MORNING. CIGS EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE 2500-3500FT RANGE...WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING
20-30KNTS AFTER 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

MORNING UPDATE...

JUST UPDATED THE MORNING OBS AND FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC OBS
SHOW A WARM FRONT ACROSS ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI SLOWLY MOVING
NORTHWARD. THAT WILL CREEP INTO OUR SWRN CWA AND POSSIBLY BE A
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS THERE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. CONTINUED
THE SLIGHT CHC POPS. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM MODELS REALLY DO NOT
INDICATE ANY CONVECTION UNTIL AFTER 12Z ACROSS THE WRN MIDDLE TN
AS THAT WARM FRONT REALLY GETS INTO OUR WRN AREAS AND THE LOW-
LEVEL JET STARTS TO KICK IN TOWARDS MORNING. BACKED OFF ON POPS
OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS...WE HAVE A HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN
FOR TODAY FOR AREAS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN MIDDLE TN. WINDS SHOULD
NOT GET OUT OF HAND THOUGH...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED TO THE MID 20 PERCENT RANGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR WX THROUGH TODAY WITH
MAINLY E WINDS 5-10KT. TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
REGION WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS BECOMING S 10-15KT. A FEW
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
POP/COVERAGE THROUGH 12Z SEEMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07






000
FXUS64 KMEG 011723
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1223 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...

FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING FROM THE ZONE FORECASTS AND TO
MAKE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO DESTABILIZE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH SBCAPES CLIMBING TO
BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE THREAT SOME.
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN
AR LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AREA WIDE WITH WINDS
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
UPDATED ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

JCL

DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 321 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAVE EXITED THE REGION SO WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL START TO MOVE BACK
TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

BY THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

BY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING AS THE MAIN THREATS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
BUT A LITTLE WARM ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS IT DOES...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
MORE ON MONDAY AND BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CURRENTLY AT LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR JBR WHERE MVFR CIGS PERSIST.
CIGS AT JBR ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WARM
FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...EXPECT THAT WE MAY SEE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FORM NEAR THIS BOUNDARY
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING AND COVERAGE ARE STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN SO
WENT WITH JUST VCTS AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR JBR WHERE SFC
BASED INSTABILITY IS SLIGHTLY MORE...AT JBR WENT TEMPO FOR -TSRA
BETWEEN 20-23Z...STARTED VCTS A TAD LATER AT MKL/TUP AND WENT SLIGHTLY
LONGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ENERGY
WILL BE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DUE TO THIS BROUGHT A
LATER TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA IN AT JBR...AND REINTRODUCED VCTS AT
MEM FOR 06Z LINE.

MAY SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF CIGS IN THE 1000-2000FT RANGE BTN 10-16Z
ON THURSDAY...WITH STILL INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH. BROUGHT AT LEAST A TEMPO IN FOR MVFR CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT MKL IN THE MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. WINDS GUSTS INCREASE TO 20-30KT ACROSS THE AREA BY
18Z ON THURSDAY.

NGU

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 011706
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
106 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY AND TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM SW TO NE ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY AS MOISTURE ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR AT CHA
AROUND 12Z...BUT TYS AND TRI SHOULD STAY VFR DUE TO DOWNSLOPE
SOUTHERLY WINDS. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS



000
FXUS64 KMRX 011706
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
106 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY AND TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM SW TO NE ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY AS MOISTURE ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR AT CHA
AROUND 12Z...BUT TYS AND TRI SHOULD STAY VFR DUE TO DOWNSLOPE
SOUTHERLY WINDS. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KOHX 011541
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1041 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.MORNING UPDATE...

JUST UPDATED THE MORNING OBS AND FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC OBS
SHOW A WARM FRONT ACROSS ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI SLOWLY MOVING
NORTHWARD. THAT WILL CREEP INTO OUR SWRN CWA AND POSSIBLY BE A
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS THERE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. CONTINUED
THE SLIGHT CHC POPS. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM MODELS REALLY DO NOT
INDICATE ANY CONVECTION UNTIL AFTER 12Z ACROSS THE WRN MIDDLE TN
AS THAT WARM FRONT REALLY GETS INTO OUR WRN AREAS AND THE LOW-
LEVEL JET STARTS TO KICK IN TOWARDS MORNING. BACKED OFF ON POPS
OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS...WE HAVE A HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN
FOR TODAY FOR AREAS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN MIDDLE TN. WINDS SHOULD
NOT GET OUT OF HAND THOUGH...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED TO THE MID 20 PERCENT RANGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR WX THROUGH TODAY WITH
MAINLY E WINDS 5-10KT. TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
REGION WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS BECOMING S 10-15KT. A FEW
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
POP/COVERAGE THROUGH 12Z SEEMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL





000
FXUS64 KOHX 011541
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1041 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.MORNING UPDATE...

JUST UPDATED THE MORNING OBS AND FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC OBS
SHOW A WARM FRONT ACROSS ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI SLOWLY MOVING
NORTHWARD. THAT WILL CREEP INTO OUR SWRN CWA AND POSSIBLY BE A
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS THERE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. CONTINUED
THE SLIGHT CHC POPS. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM MODELS REALLY DO NOT
INDICATE ANY CONVECTION UNTIL AFTER 12Z ACROSS THE WRN MIDDLE TN
AS THAT WARM FRONT REALLY GETS INTO OUR WRN AREAS AND THE LOW-
LEVEL JET STARTS TO KICK IN TOWARDS MORNING. BACKED OFF ON POPS
OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS...WE HAVE A HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN
FOR TODAY FOR AREAS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN MIDDLE TN. WINDS SHOULD
NOT GET OUT OF HAND THOUGH...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED TO THE MID 20 PERCENT RANGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR WX THROUGH TODAY WITH
MAINLY E WINDS 5-10KT. TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
REGION WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS BECOMING S 10-15KT. A FEW
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
POP/COVERAGE THROUGH 12Z SEEMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL






000
FXUS64 KMEG 011434 AAB
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
934 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING FROM THE ZONE FORECASTS AND TO
MAKE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO DESTABILIZE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH SBCAPES CLIMBING TO
BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE THREAT SOME.
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN
AR LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AREA WIDE WITH WINDS
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
UPDATED ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 321 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAVE EXITED THE REGION SO WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL START TO MOVE BACK
TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

BY THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

BY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING AS THE MAIN THREATS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
BUT A LITTLE WARM ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS IT DOES...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
MORE ON MONDAY AND BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

UPDATE...AFTER DIGESTING SOME ADDITIONAL DATA DECIDED TO ADD
TEMPOS TO KJBR AND KMEM FOR TSRAS THIS EVENING.

PREV AVIATION DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 640 AM CST WED APR 1 2015/
VFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL IFR IN FOG AT KMKL THIS
MORNING. KEPT A TEMPO FOR LIGHT FOG AT KMKL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SO ADDED A TEMPO
FOR A MVFR DECK THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCT SHRAS AND TSRAS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE OR TIMING TO PLACE A TEMPO FOR TSRAS ATTM.
OPTED TO STICK WITH VCTS FOR NOW FROM LATE AFTN THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT EAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY
VEERING TO SOUTH TONIGHT AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE DELTA.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 011434 AAB
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
934 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING FROM THE ZONE FORECASTS AND TO
MAKE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO DESTABILIZE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH SBCAPES CLIMBING TO
BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE THREAT SOME.
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN
AR LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AREA WIDE WITH WINDS
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
UPDATED ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 321 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAVE EXITED THE REGION SO WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL START TO MOVE BACK
TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

BY THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

BY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING AS THE MAIN THREATS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
BUT A LITTLE WARM ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS IT DOES...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
MORE ON MONDAY AND BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

UPDATE...AFTER DIGESTING SOME ADDITIONAL DATA DECIDED TO ADD
TEMPOS TO KJBR AND KMEM FOR TSRAS THIS EVENING.

PREV AVIATION DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 640 AM CST WED APR 1 2015/
VFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL IFR IN FOG AT KMKL THIS
MORNING. KEPT A TEMPO FOR LIGHT FOG AT KMKL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SO ADDED A TEMPO
FOR A MVFR DECK THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCT SHRAS AND TSRAS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE OR TIMING TO PLACE A TEMPO FOR TSRAS ATTM.
OPTED TO STICK WITH VCTS FOR NOW FROM LATE AFTN THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT EAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY
VEERING TO SOUTH TONIGHT AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE DELTA.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 011434 AAB
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
934 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING FROM THE ZONE FORECASTS AND TO
MAKE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO DESTABILIZE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH SBCAPES CLIMBING TO
BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE THREAT SOME.
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN
AR LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AREA WIDE WITH WINDS
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
UPDATED ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 321 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAVE EXITED THE REGION SO WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL START TO MOVE BACK
TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

BY THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

BY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING AS THE MAIN THREATS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
BUT A LITTLE WARM ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS IT DOES...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
MORE ON MONDAY AND BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

UPDATE...AFTER DIGESTING SOME ADDITIONAL DATA DECIDED TO ADD
TEMPOS TO KJBR AND KMEM FOR TSRAS THIS EVENING.

PREV AVIATION DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 640 AM CST WED APR 1 2015/
VFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL IFR IN FOG AT KMKL THIS
MORNING. KEPT A TEMPO FOR LIGHT FOG AT KMKL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SO ADDED A TEMPO
FOR A MVFR DECK THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCT SHRAS AND TSRAS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE OR TIMING TO PLACE A TEMPO FOR TSRAS ATTM.
OPTED TO STICK WITH VCTS FOR NOW FROM LATE AFTN THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT EAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY
VEERING TO SOUTH TONIGHT AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE DELTA.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 011434 AAB
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
934 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING FROM THE ZONE FORECASTS AND TO
MAKE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO DESTABILIZE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH SBCAPES CLIMBING TO
BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE THREAT SOME.
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN
AR LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AREA WIDE WITH WINDS
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
UPDATED ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 321 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAVE EXITED THE REGION SO WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL START TO MOVE BACK
TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

BY THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

BY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING AS THE MAIN THREATS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
BUT A LITTLE WARM ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS IT DOES...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
MORE ON MONDAY AND BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

UPDATE...AFTER DIGESTING SOME ADDITIONAL DATA DECIDED TO ADD
TEMPOS TO KJBR AND KMEM FOR TSRAS THIS EVENING.

PREV AVIATION DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 640 AM CST WED APR 1 2015/
VFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL IFR IN FOG AT KMKL THIS
MORNING. KEPT A TEMPO FOR LIGHT FOG AT KMKL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SO ADDED A TEMPO
FOR A MVFR DECK THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCT SHRAS AND TSRAS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE OR TIMING TO PLACE A TEMPO FOR TSRAS ATTM.
OPTED TO STICK WITH VCTS FOR NOW FROM LATE AFTN THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT EAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY
VEERING TO SOUTH TONIGHT AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE DELTA.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 011419 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1019 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WITH AN 850 MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER IL/IN TODAY...A NORTHERLY FLOW
AT THAT LEVEL WILL BRING WEAK COLD ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY DESPITE FULL SUN. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE AND SURFACE OBS ARE IN LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS...SO NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED ON THAT FRONT. OBSERVED DEWPOINTS
ARE LOWER THAN FORECAST IN MOST SPOTS...SO AN UPDATE WILL BE NEEDED
FOR FIRE WEATHER PURPOSES WHERE RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
NEED FOR FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS



000
FXUS64 KMRX 011419 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1019 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WITH AN 850 MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER IL/IN TODAY...A NORTHERLY FLOW
AT THAT LEVEL WILL BRING WEAK COLD ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY DESPITE FULL SUN. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE AND SURFACE OBS ARE IN LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS...SO NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED ON THAT FRONT. OBSERVED DEWPOINTS
ARE LOWER THAN FORECAST IN MOST SPOTS...SO AN UPDATE WILL BE NEEDED
FOR FIRE WEATHER PURPOSES WHERE RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
NEED FOR FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMEG 011230
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
730 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAVE EXITED THE REGION SO WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL START TO MOVE BACK
TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

BY THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

BY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING AS THE MAIN THREATS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
BUT A LITTLE WARM ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS IT DOES...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
MORE ON MONDAY AND BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

ARS

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

UPDATE...AFTER DIGESTING SOME ADDITIONAL DATA DECIDED TO ADD
TEMPOS TO KJBR AND KMEM FOR TSRAS THIS EVENING.

PREV AVIATION DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 640 AM CST WED APR 1 2015/
VFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL IFR IN FOG AT KMKL THIS
MORNING. KEPT A TEMPO FOR LIGHT FOG AT KMKL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SO ADDED A TEMPO
FOR A MVFR DECK THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCT SHRAS AND TSRAS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE OR TIMING TO PLACE A TEMPO FOR TSRAS ATTM.
OPTED TO STICK WITH VCTS FOR NOW FROM LATE AFTN THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT EAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY
VEERING TO SOUTH TONIGHT AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE DELTA.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 011230
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
730 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAVE EXITED THE REGION SO WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL START TO MOVE BACK
TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

BY THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

BY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING AS THE MAIN THREATS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
BUT A LITTLE WARM ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS IT DOES...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
MORE ON MONDAY AND BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

ARS

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

UPDATE...AFTER DIGESTING SOME ADDITIONAL DATA DECIDED TO ADD
TEMPOS TO KJBR AND KMEM FOR TSRAS THIS EVENING.

PREV AVIATION DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 640 AM CST WED APR 1 2015/
VFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL IFR IN FOG AT KMKL THIS
MORNING. KEPT A TEMPO FOR LIGHT FOG AT KMKL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SO ADDED A TEMPO
FOR A MVFR DECK THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCT SHRAS AND TSRAS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE OR TIMING TO PLACE A TEMPO FOR TSRAS ATTM.
OPTED TO STICK WITH VCTS FOR NOW FROM LATE AFTN THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT EAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY
VEERING TO SOUTH TONIGHT AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE DELTA.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 011230
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
730 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAVE EXITED THE REGION SO WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL START TO MOVE BACK
TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

BY THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

BY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING AS THE MAIN THREATS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
BUT A LITTLE WARM ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS IT DOES...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
MORE ON MONDAY AND BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

ARS

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

UPDATE...AFTER DIGESTING SOME ADDITIONAL DATA DECIDED TO ADD
TEMPOS TO KJBR AND KMEM FOR TSRAS THIS EVENING.

PREV AVIATION DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 640 AM CST WED APR 1 2015/
VFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL IFR IN FOG AT KMKL THIS
MORNING. KEPT A TEMPO FOR LIGHT FOG AT KMKL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SO ADDED A TEMPO
FOR A MVFR DECK THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCT SHRAS AND TSRAS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE OR TIMING TO PLACE A TEMPO FOR TSRAS ATTM.
OPTED TO STICK WITH VCTS FOR NOW FROM LATE AFTN THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT EAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY
VEERING TO SOUTH TONIGHT AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE DELTA.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 011230
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
730 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAVE EXITED THE REGION SO WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL START TO MOVE BACK
TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

BY THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

BY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING AS THE MAIN THREATS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
BUT A LITTLE WARM ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS IT DOES...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
MORE ON MONDAY AND BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

ARS

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

UPDATE...AFTER DIGESTING SOME ADDITIONAL DATA DECIDED TO ADD
TEMPOS TO KJBR AND KMEM FOR TSRAS THIS EVENING.

PREV AVIATION DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 640 AM CST WED APR 1 2015/
VFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL IFR IN FOG AT KMKL THIS
MORNING. KEPT A TEMPO FOR LIGHT FOG AT KMKL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SO ADDED A TEMPO
FOR A MVFR DECK THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCT SHRAS AND TSRAS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE OR TIMING TO PLACE A TEMPO FOR TSRAS ATTM.
OPTED TO STICK WITH VCTS FOR NOW FROM LATE AFTN THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT EAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY
VEERING TO SOUTH TONIGHT AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE DELTA.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 011140
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
640 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAVE EXITED THE REGION SO WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL START TO MOVE BACK
TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

BY THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

BY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING AS THE MAIN THREATS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
BUT A LITTLE WARM ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS IT DOES...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
MORE ON MONDAY AND BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

ARS

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL IFR IN FOG AT KMKL THIS
MORNING. KEPT A TEMPO FOR LIGHT FOG AT KMKL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SO ADDED A TEMPO
FOR A MVFR DECK THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCT SHRAS AND TSRAS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE OR TIMING TO PLACE A TEMPO FOR TSRAS ATTM.
OPTED TO STICK WITH VCTS FOR NOW FROM LATE AFTN THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT EAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY
VEERING TO SOUTH TONIGHT AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE DELTA.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 011140
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
640 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAVE EXITED THE REGION SO WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL START TO MOVE BACK
TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

BY THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

BY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING AS THE MAIN THREATS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
BUT A LITTLE WARM ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS IT DOES...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
MORE ON MONDAY AND BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

ARS

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL IFR IN FOG AT KMKL THIS
MORNING. KEPT A TEMPO FOR LIGHT FOG AT KMKL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SO ADDED A TEMPO
FOR A MVFR DECK THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCT SHRAS AND TSRAS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE OR TIMING TO PLACE A TEMPO FOR TSRAS ATTM.
OPTED TO STICK WITH VCTS FOR NOW FROM LATE AFTN THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT EAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY
VEERING TO SOUTH TONIGHT AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE DELTA.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 011140
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
640 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAVE EXITED THE REGION SO WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL START TO MOVE BACK
TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

BY THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

BY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING AS THE MAIN THREATS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
BUT A LITTLE WARM ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS IT DOES...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
MORE ON MONDAY AND BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

ARS

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL IFR IN FOG AT KMKL THIS
MORNING. KEPT A TEMPO FOR LIGHT FOG AT KMKL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SO ADDED A TEMPO
FOR A MVFR DECK THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCT SHRAS AND TSRAS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE OR TIMING TO PLACE A TEMPO FOR TSRAS ATTM.
OPTED TO STICK WITH VCTS FOR NOW FROM LATE AFTN THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT EAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY
VEERING TO SOUTH TONIGHT AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE DELTA.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 011140
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
640 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAVE EXITED THE REGION SO WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL START TO MOVE BACK
TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

BY THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

BY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING AS THE MAIN THREATS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
BUT A LITTLE WARM ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS IT DOES...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
MORE ON MONDAY AND BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

ARS

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL IFR IN FOG AT KMKL THIS
MORNING. KEPT A TEMPO FOR LIGHT FOG AT KMKL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SO ADDED A TEMPO
FOR A MVFR DECK THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCT SHRAS AND TSRAS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE OR TIMING TO PLACE A TEMPO FOR TSRAS ATTM.
OPTED TO STICK WITH VCTS FOR NOW FROM LATE AFTN THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT EAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY
VEERING TO SOUTH TONIGHT AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE DELTA.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 011140
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
640 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAVE EXITED THE REGION SO WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL START TO MOVE BACK
TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

BY THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

BY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING AS THE MAIN THREATS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
BUT A LITTLE WARM ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS IT DOES...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
MORE ON MONDAY AND BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

ARS

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL IFR IN FOG AT KMKL THIS
MORNING. KEPT A TEMPO FOR LIGHT FOG AT KMKL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SO ADDED A TEMPO
FOR A MVFR DECK THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCT SHRAS AND TSRAS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE OR TIMING TO PLACE A TEMPO FOR TSRAS ATTM.
OPTED TO STICK WITH VCTS FOR NOW FROM LATE AFTN THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT EAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY
VEERING TO SOUTH TONIGHT AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE DELTA.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 011140
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
640 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAVE EXITED THE REGION SO WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL START TO MOVE BACK
TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

BY THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

BY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING AS THE MAIN THREATS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
BUT A LITTLE WARM ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS IT DOES...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
MORE ON MONDAY AND BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

ARS

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL IFR IN FOG AT KMKL THIS
MORNING. KEPT A TEMPO FOR LIGHT FOG AT KMKL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SO ADDED A TEMPO
FOR A MVFR DECK THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCT SHRAS AND TSRAS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE OR TIMING TO PLACE A TEMPO FOR TSRAS ATTM.
OPTED TO STICK WITH VCTS FOR NOW FROM LATE AFTN THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT EAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY
VEERING TO SOUTH TONIGHT AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE DELTA.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 011116
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
716 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS AND A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
THE ONLY WEATHER OF NOTE FOR THIS TAF FORECAST.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 011116
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
716 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS AND A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
THE ONLY WEATHER OF NOTE FOR THIS TAF FORECAST.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM



000
FXUS64 KMRX 011116
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
716 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS AND A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
THE ONLY WEATHER OF NOTE FOR THIS TAF FORECAST.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM



000
FXUS64 KOHX 011114
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
614 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR WX THROUGH TODAY WITH
MAINLY E WINDS 5-10KT. TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
REGION WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS BECOMING S 10-15KT. A FEW
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
POP/COVERAGE THROUGH 12Z SEEMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU FRI NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THRU THU FRI
NIGHT...STRENGTH OF TSTM ACTIVITY...TEMPS.

EXPECT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES TO BECOME MORE ENHANCED AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH CURRENT BUILDING SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES
STRETCHING DOWN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO N PORTIONS OF THE MID
STATE. MAY NOT REACH AS HIGH OF TEMPS TODAY AS YESTERDAY...AS WEAK
COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES JUST S OF MID STATE AND THEN SLOWLY COMES
BACK AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS WRN TN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GFS MOS
HAS BEEN THE "KING" OF TEMP FORECASTING AS OF LATE...YES...GFS
MOS...YOU ARE WORTHY...AND PLAYING AN APRIL FOOLS JOKE ON IT AGAIN
LIKE UNDERCUTTING IT VALUES FOR HIGHS WOULD BE A LOOSING PROPOSITION
FOR THE THIRD MORNING IN A ROW. BELIEVE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ENHANCEMENTS...DESPITE A LITTLE DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING INTO MOST OF
THE MID STATE TODAY...THAT TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN GFS MOS VALUES. THUS WILL GO WITH UPPER 70S ACROSS
MAINLY WRN AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE WITH A GENERAL 70 TO
75 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS LOCATIONS TO THE E. WITH RAINFALL ACROSS
LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TN/AL THIS AFTERNOON AND CLRING
SKIES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THOSE LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCED PATCHY FOG. THOUGH KEEPING MOST OF THE MID STATE DRY
TODAY...JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND DIURNAL BASED INSTABILITY MAY BE
PRESENT FOR SOME ISO SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP. A FEW STRONG TSTMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL CAN CERTAINLY NOT BE RULED OUT.

WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS W TO E WED NIGHT AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN AND A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...AND 850MB JET
STRENGTHENS...ALONG WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SFC WARM FRONT FINALLY
PUSHING N OF THE MID STATE. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM LOWER 50S PLATEAU
TO APPROACHING 60 TN RIVER VALLEY REGION.

A GULF WAA SCENARIO WILL BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ON THU...WITH A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS AS
THU PROGRESSES FOR SCT...MAINLY AFTERNOON...SHWRS/TSTMS. SOME STORMS
TSTMS COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FOR NW 1/3 OF MID STATE...INCLUDING METRO
NASHVILLE AREA AND CLARKSVILLE...WHERE SPC HAS PLACED US UNDER A DAY
TWO MARGINAL SVR TSTM RISKS. AGAIN WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
GFS MOS NUMBERS HERE AS BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S PLATEAU REGION. LOWS THU NIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S AS BEST POTENTIAL OF SHWRS/TSTMS
REMAINS JUST N/NW OF MID STATE...AND TAILORED POPS NW LIKELY TO SE
CHANCE AS A RESULT. A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS STATES AS THE NIGHTIME HOURS PROGRESS ALSO.

AS FOR FRI...SPC PLACING THE ENTIRE MID STATE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SVR TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS
ACROSS THE PLATEAU COUNTIES ON FRI...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THE MAIN CONCERNS. GFS/EURO NOW MORE OF A CONSENSUS
AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE STRONG COLD FRONT THRU THE MID STATE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS ON FRI. AS REFERENCED ABOVE...BELIEVE THE
MAIN TIME FRAME FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HRS AND WENT WITH CAT SHWRS/TSTMS THEN. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY
RANGE IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREES RANGE...MID TO UPPER 60S PLATEAU.
EXPECT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE QUICKLY E OF MID STATE AS FRI NIGHT
PROGRESSES...AS BASE OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH BUILDING CNTRL PLAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES. SKIES
MAY CLEAR OUT FAST ENOUGH BY LATE FRI NIGHT FOR SOME UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE PLATEAU REGION...WITH LOW TEMPS AROUND 40 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.

31

LONG TERM(SAT THRU TUE)...
BY SATURDAY MORNING...A COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TOWARD MID TN. SATURDAY WILL BE A
SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS FROM 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH CENTER
WILL BE OVER MID TN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS
ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY. PATCHY FROST WILL BE A CONCERN
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A FEW OF THE USUAL COLDER...SHELTERED
AREAS EAST OF I 65 MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK AROUND
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST ON
SUNDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO QUICKLY REBOUND WELL INTO THE 60S UNDER
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THAT...WE HAVE A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S...AND LOWS
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THAT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES...PROBABLY ON THURSDAY.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 011114
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
614 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR WX THROUGH TODAY WITH
MAINLY E WINDS 5-10KT. TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
REGION WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS BECOMING S 10-15KT. A FEW
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
POP/COVERAGE THROUGH 12Z SEEMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU FRI NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THRU THU FRI
NIGHT...STRENGTH OF TSTM ACTIVITY...TEMPS.

EXPECT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES TO BECOME MORE ENHANCED AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH CURRENT BUILDING SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES
STRETCHING DOWN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO N PORTIONS OF THE MID
STATE. MAY NOT REACH AS HIGH OF TEMPS TODAY AS YESTERDAY...AS WEAK
COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES JUST S OF MID STATE AND THEN SLOWLY COMES
BACK AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS WRN TN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GFS MOS
HAS BEEN THE "KING" OF TEMP FORECASTING AS OF LATE...YES...GFS
MOS...YOU ARE WORTHY...AND PLAYING AN APRIL FOOLS JOKE ON IT AGAIN
LIKE UNDERCUTTING IT VALUES FOR HIGHS WOULD BE A LOOSING PROPOSITION
FOR THE THIRD MORNING IN A ROW. BELIEVE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ENHANCEMENTS...DESPITE A LITTLE DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING INTO MOST OF
THE MID STATE TODAY...THAT TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN GFS MOS VALUES. THUS WILL GO WITH UPPER 70S ACROSS
MAINLY WRN AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE WITH A GENERAL 70 TO
75 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS LOCATIONS TO THE E. WITH RAINFALL ACROSS
LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TN/AL THIS AFTERNOON AND CLRING
SKIES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THOSE LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCED PATCHY FOG. THOUGH KEEPING MOST OF THE MID STATE DRY
TODAY...JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND DIURNAL BASED INSTABILITY MAY BE
PRESENT FOR SOME ISO SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP. A FEW STRONG TSTMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL CAN CERTAINLY NOT BE RULED OUT.

WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS W TO E WED NIGHT AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN AND A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...AND 850MB JET
STRENGTHENS...ALONG WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SFC WARM FRONT FINALLY
PUSHING N OF THE MID STATE. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM LOWER 50S PLATEAU
TO APPROACHING 60 TN RIVER VALLEY REGION.

A GULF WAA SCENARIO WILL BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ON THU...WITH A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS AS
THU PROGRESSES FOR SCT...MAINLY AFTERNOON...SHWRS/TSTMS. SOME STORMS
TSTMS COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FOR NW 1/3 OF MID STATE...INCLUDING METRO
NASHVILLE AREA AND CLARKSVILLE...WHERE SPC HAS PLACED US UNDER A DAY
TWO MARGINAL SVR TSTM RISKS. AGAIN WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
GFS MOS NUMBERS HERE AS BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S PLATEAU REGION. LOWS THU NIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S AS BEST POTENTIAL OF SHWRS/TSTMS
REMAINS JUST N/NW OF MID STATE...AND TAILORED POPS NW LIKELY TO SE
CHANCE AS A RESULT. A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS STATES AS THE NIGHTIME HOURS PROGRESS ALSO.

AS FOR FRI...SPC PLACING THE ENTIRE MID STATE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SVR TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS
ACROSS THE PLATEAU COUNTIES ON FRI...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THE MAIN CONCERNS. GFS/EURO NOW MORE OF A CONSENSUS
AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE STRONG COLD FRONT THRU THE MID STATE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS ON FRI. AS REFERENCED ABOVE...BELIEVE THE
MAIN TIME FRAME FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HRS AND WENT WITH CAT SHWRS/TSTMS THEN. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY
RANGE IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREES RANGE...MID TO UPPER 60S PLATEAU.
EXPECT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE QUICKLY E OF MID STATE AS FRI NIGHT
PROGRESSES...AS BASE OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH BUILDING CNTRL PLAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES. SKIES
MAY CLEAR OUT FAST ENOUGH BY LATE FRI NIGHT FOR SOME UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE PLATEAU REGION...WITH LOW TEMPS AROUND 40 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.

31

LONG TERM(SAT THRU TUE)...
BY SATURDAY MORNING...A COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TOWARD MID TN. SATURDAY WILL BE A
SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS FROM 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH CENTER
WILL BE OVER MID TN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS
ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY. PATCHY FROST WILL BE A CONCERN
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A FEW OF THE USUAL COLDER...SHELTERED
AREAS EAST OF I 65 MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK AROUND
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST ON
SUNDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO QUICKLY REBOUND WELL INTO THE 60S UNDER
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THAT...WE HAVE A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S...AND LOWS
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THAT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES...PROBABLY ON THURSDAY.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 011114
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
614 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR WX THROUGH TODAY WITH
MAINLY E WINDS 5-10KT. TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
REGION WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS BECOMING S 10-15KT. A FEW
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
POP/COVERAGE THROUGH 12Z SEEMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU FRI NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THRU THU FRI
NIGHT...STRENGTH OF TSTM ACTIVITY...TEMPS.

EXPECT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES TO BECOME MORE ENHANCED AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH CURRENT BUILDING SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES
STRETCHING DOWN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO N PORTIONS OF THE MID
STATE. MAY NOT REACH AS HIGH OF TEMPS TODAY AS YESTERDAY...AS WEAK
COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES JUST S OF MID STATE AND THEN SLOWLY COMES
BACK AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS WRN TN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GFS MOS
HAS BEEN THE "KING" OF TEMP FORECASTING AS OF LATE...YES...GFS
MOS...YOU ARE WORTHY...AND PLAYING AN APRIL FOOLS JOKE ON IT AGAIN
LIKE UNDERCUTTING IT VALUES FOR HIGHS WOULD BE A LOOSING PROPOSITION
FOR THE THIRD MORNING IN A ROW. BELIEVE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ENHANCEMENTS...DESPITE A LITTLE DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING INTO MOST OF
THE MID STATE TODAY...THAT TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN GFS MOS VALUES. THUS WILL GO WITH UPPER 70S ACROSS
MAINLY WRN AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE WITH A GENERAL 70 TO
75 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS LOCATIONS TO THE E. WITH RAINFALL ACROSS
LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TN/AL THIS AFTERNOON AND CLRING
SKIES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THOSE LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCED PATCHY FOG. THOUGH KEEPING MOST OF THE MID STATE DRY
TODAY...JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND DIURNAL BASED INSTABILITY MAY BE
PRESENT FOR SOME ISO SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP. A FEW STRONG TSTMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL CAN CERTAINLY NOT BE RULED OUT.

WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS W TO E WED NIGHT AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN AND A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...AND 850MB JET
STRENGTHENS...ALONG WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SFC WARM FRONT FINALLY
PUSHING N OF THE MID STATE. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM LOWER 50S PLATEAU
TO APPROACHING 60 TN RIVER VALLEY REGION.

A GULF WAA SCENARIO WILL BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ON THU...WITH A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS AS
THU PROGRESSES FOR SCT...MAINLY AFTERNOON...SHWRS/TSTMS. SOME STORMS
TSTMS COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FOR NW 1/3 OF MID STATE...INCLUDING METRO
NASHVILLE AREA AND CLARKSVILLE...WHERE SPC HAS PLACED US UNDER A DAY
TWO MARGINAL SVR TSTM RISKS. AGAIN WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
GFS MOS NUMBERS HERE AS BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S PLATEAU REGION. LOWS THU NIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S AS BEST POTENTIAL OF SHWRS/TSTMS
REMAINS JUST N/NW OF MID STATE...AND TAILORED POPS NW LIKELY TO SE
CHANCE AS A RESULT. A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS STATES AS THE NIGHTIME HOURS PROGRESS ALSO.

AS FOR FRI...SPC PLACING THE ENTIRE MID STATE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SVR TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS
ACROSS THE PLATEAU COUNTIES ON FRI...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THE MAIN CONCERNS. GFS/EURO NOW MORE OF A CONSENSUS
AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE STRONG COLD FRONT THRU THE MID STATE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS ON FRI. AS REFERENCED ABOVE...BELIEVE THE
MAIN TIME FRAME FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HRS AND WENT WITH CAT SHWRS/TSTMS THEN. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY
RANGE IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREES RANGE...MID TO UPPER 60S PLATEAU.
EXPECT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE QUICKLY E OF MID STATE AS FRI NIGHT
PROGRESSES...AS BASE OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH BUILDING CNTRL PLAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES. SKIES
MAY CLEAR OUT FAST ENOUGH BY LATE FRI NIGHT FOR SOME UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE PLATEAU REGION...WITH LOW TEMPS AROUND 40 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.

31

LONG TERM(SAT THRU TUE)...
BY SATURDAY MORNING...A COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TOWARD MID TN. SATURDAY WILL BE A
SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS FROM 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH CENTER
WILL BE OVER MID TN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS
ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY. PATCHY FROST WILL BE A CONCERN
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A FEW OF THE USUAL COLDER...SHELTERED
AREAS EAST OF I 65 MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK AROUND
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST ON
SUNDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO QUICKLY REBOUND WELL INTO THE 60S UNDER
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THAT...WE HAVE A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S...AND LOWS
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THAT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES...PROBABLY ON THURSDAY.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 011114
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
614 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR WX THROUGH TODAY WITH
MAINLY E WINDS 5-10KT. TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
REGION WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS BECOMING S 10-15KT. A FEW
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
POP/COVERAGE THROUGH 12Z SEEMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU FRI NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THRU THU FRI
NIGHT...STRENGTH OF TSTM ACTIVITY...TEMPS.

EXPECT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES TO BECOME MORE ENHANCED AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH CURRENT BUILDING SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES
STRETCHING DOWN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO N PORTIONS OF THE MID
STATE. MAY NOT REACH AS HIGH OF TEMPS TODAY AS YESTERDAY...AS WEAK
COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES JUST S OF MID STATE AND THEN SLOWLY COMES
BACK AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS WRN TN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GFS MOS
HAS BEEN THE "KING" OF TEMP FORECASTING AS OF LATE...YES...GFS
MOS...YOU ARE WORTHY...AND PLAYING AN APRIL FOOLS JOKE ON IT AGAIN
LIKE UNDERCUTTING IT VALUES FOR HIGHS WOULD BE A LOOSING PROPOSITION
FOR THE THIRD MORNING IN A ROW. BELIEVE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ENHANCEMENTS...DESPITE A LITTLE DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING INTO MOST OF
THE MID STATE TODAY...THAT TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN GFS MOS VALUES. THUS WILL GO WITH UPPER 70S ACROSS
MAINLY WRN AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE WITH A GENERAL 70 TO
75 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS LOCATIONS TO THE E. WITH RAINFALL ACROSS
LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TN/AL THIS AFTERNOON AND CLRING
SKIES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THOSE LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCED PATCHY FOG. THOUGH KEEPING MOST OF THE MID STATE DRY
TODAY...JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND DIURNAL BASED INSTABILITY MAY BE
PRESENT FOR SOME ISO SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP. A FEW STRONG TSTMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL CAN CERTAINLY NOT BE RULED OUT.

WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS W TO E WED NIGHT AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN AND A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...AND 850MB JET
STRENGTHENS...ALONG WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SFC WARM FRONT FINALLY
PUSHING N OF THE MID STATE. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM LOWER 50S PLATEAU
TO APPROACHING 60 TN RIVER VALLEY REGION.

A GULF WAA SCENARIO WILL BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ON THU...WITH A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS AS
THU PROGRESSES FOR SCT...MAINLY AFTERNOON...SHWRS/TSTMS. SOME STORMS
TSTMS COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FOR NW 1/3 OF MID STATE...INCLUDING METRO
NASHVILLE AREA AND CLARKSVILLE...WHERE SPC HAS PLACED US UNDER A DAY
TWO MARGINAL SVR TSTM RISKS. AGAIN WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
GFS MOS NUMBERS HERE AS BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S PLATEAU REGION. LOWS THU NIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S AS BEST POTENTIAL OF SHWRS/TSTMS
REMAINS JUST N/NW OF MID STATE...AND TAILORED POPS NW LIKELY TO SE
CHANCE AS A RESULT. A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS STATES AS THE NIGHTIME HOURS PROGRESS ALSO.

AS FOR FRI...SPC PLACING THE ENTIRE MID STATE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SVR TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS
ACROSS THE PLATEAU COUNTIES ON FRI...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THE MAIN CONCERNS. GFS/EURO NOW MORE OF A CONSENSUS
AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE STRONG COLD FRONT THRU THE MID STATE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS ON FRI. AS REFERENCED ABOVE...BELIEVE THE
MAIN TIME FRAME FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HRS AND WENT WITH CAT SHWRS/TSTMS THEN. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY
RANGE IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREES RANGE...MID TO UPPER 60S PLATEAU.
EXPECT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE QUICKLY E OF MID STATE AS FRI NIGHT
PROGRESSES...AS BASE OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH BUILDING CNTRL PLAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES. SKIES
MAY CLEAR OUT FAST ENOUGH BY LATE FRI NIGHT FOR SOME UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE PLATEAU REGION...WITH LOW TEMPS AROUND 40 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.

31

LONG TERM(SAT THRU TUE)...
BY SATURDAY MORNING...A COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TOWARD MID TN. SATURDAY WILL BE A
SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS FROM 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH CENTER
WILL BE OVER MID TN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS
ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY. PATCHY FROST WILL BE A CONCERN
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A FEW OF THE USUAL COLDER...SHELTERED
AREAS EAST OF I 65 MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK AROUND
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST ON
SUNDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO QUICKLY REBOUND WELL INTO THE 60S UNDER
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THAT...WE HAVE A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S...AND LOWS
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THAT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES...PROBABLY ON THURSDAY.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 010916 CCA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR WORDING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU FRI NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THRU THU FRI
NIGHT...STRENGTH OF TSTM ACTIVITY...TEMPS.

EXPECT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES TO BECOME MORE ENHANCED AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH CURRENT BUILDING SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES
STRETCHING DOWN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO N PORTIONS OF THE MID
STATE. MAY NOT REACH AS HIGH OF TEMPS TODAY AS YESTERDAY...AS WEAK
COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES JUST S OF MID STATE AND THEN SLOWLY COMES
BACK AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS WRN TN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GFS MOS
HAS BEEN THE "KING" OF TEMP FORECASTING AS OF LATE...YES...GFS
MOS...YOU ARE WORTHY...AND PLAYING AN APRIL FOOLS JOKE ON IT AGAIN
LIKE UNDERCUTTING IT VALUES FOR HIGHS WOULD BE A LOOSING PROPOSITION
FOR THE THIRD MORNING IN A ROW. BELIEVE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ENHANCEMENTS...DESPITE A LITTLE DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING INTO MOST OF
THE MID STATE TODAY...THAT TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN GFS MOS VALUES. THUS WILL GO WITH UPPER 70S ACROSS
MAINLY WRN AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE WITH A GENERAL 70 TO
75 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS LOCATIONS TO THE E. WITH RAINFALL ACROSS
LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TN/AL THIS AFTERNOON AND CLRING
SKIES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THOSE LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCED PATCHY FOG. THOUGH KEEPING MOST OF THE MID STATE DRY
TODAY...JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND DIURNAL BASED INSTABILITY MAY BE
PRESENT FOR SOME ISO SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP. A FEW STRONG TSTMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL CAN CERTAINLY NOT BE RULED OUT.

WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS W TO E WED NIGHT AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN AND A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...AND 850MB JET
STRENGTHENS...ALONG WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SFC WARM FRONT FINALLY
PUSHING N OF THE MID STATE. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM LOWER 50S PLATEAU
TO APPROACHING 60 TN RIVER VALLEY REGION.

A GULF WAA SCENARIO WILL BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ON THU...WITH A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS AS
THU PROGRESSES FOR SCT...MAINLY AFTERNOON...SHWRS/TSTMS. SOME STORMS
TSTMS COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FOR NW 1/3 OF MID STATE...INCLUDING METRO
NASHVILLE AREA AND CLARKSVILLE...WHERE SPC HAS PLACED US UNDER A DAY
TWO MARGINAL SVR TSTM RISKS. AGAIN WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
GFS MOS NUMBERS HERE AS BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S PLATEAU REGION. LOWS THU NIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S AS BEST POTENTIAL OF SHWRS/TSTMS
REMAINS JUST N/NW OF MID STATE...AND TAILORED POPS NW LIKELY TO SE
CHANCE AS A RESULT. A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS STATES AS THE NIGHTIME HOURS PROGRESS ALSO.

AS FOR FRI...SPC PLACING THE ENTIRE MID STATE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SVR TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS
ACROSS THE PLATEAU COUNTIES ON FRI...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THE MAIN CONCERNS. GFS/EURO NOW MORE OF A CONSENSUS
AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE STRONG COLD FRONT THRU THE MID STATE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS ON FRI. AS REFERENCED ABOVE...BELIEVE THE
MAIN TIME FRAME FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HRS AND WENT WITH CAT SHWRS/TSTMS THEN. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY
RANGE IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREES RANGE...MID TO UPPER 60S PLATEAU.
EXPECT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE QUICKLY E OF MID STATE AS FRI NIGHT
PROGRESSES...AS BASE OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH BUILDING CNTRL PLAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES. SKIES
MAY CLEAR OUT FAST ENOUGH BY LATE FRI NIGHT FOR SOME UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE PLATEAU REGION...WITH LOW TEMPS AROUND 40 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM(SAT THRU TUE)...
BY SATURDAY MORNING...A COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TOWARD MID TN. SATURDAY WILL BE A
SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS FROM 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH CENTER
WILL BE OVER MID TN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS
ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY. PATCHY FROST WILL BE A CONCERN
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A FEW OF THE USUAL COLDER...SHELTERED
AREAS EAST OF I 65 MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK AROUND
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST ON
SUNDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO QUICKLY REBOUND WELL INTO THE 60S UNDER
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THAT...WE HAVE A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S...AND LOWS
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THAT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES...PROBABLY ON THURSDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      78  56  78  63 /  05  30  50  70
CLARKSVILLE    74  57  78  64 /  05  30  50  70
CROSSVILLE     70  52  68  58 /  05  20  50  40
COLUMBIA       77  58  78  63 /  10  30  50  50
LAWRENCEBURG   76  59  77  62 /  20  30  50  40
WAVERLY        76  59  79  64 /  05  30  50  70
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31/13








000
FXUS64 KOHX 010916 CCA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR WORDING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU FRI NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THRU THU FRI
NIGHT...STRENGTH OF TSTM ACTIVITY...TEMPS.

EXPECT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES TO BECOME MORE ENHANCED AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH CURRENT BUILDING SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES
STRETCHING DOWN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO N PORTIONS OF THE MID
STATE. MAY NOT REACH AS HIGH OF TEMPS TODAY AS YESTERDAY...AS WEAK
COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES JUST S OF MID STATE AND THEN SLOWLY COMES
BACK AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS WRN TN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GFS MOS
HAS BEEN THE "KING" OF TEMP FORECASTING AS OF LATE...YES...GFS
MOS...YOU ARE WORTHY...AND PLAYING AN APRIL FOOLS JOKE ON IT AGAIN
LIKE UNDERCUTTING IT VALUES FOR HIGHS WOULD BE A LOOSING PROPOSITION
FOR THE THIRD MORNING IN A ROW. BELIEVE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ENHANCEMENTS...DESPITE A LITTLE DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING INTO MOST OF
THE MID STATE TODAY...THAT TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN GFS MOS VALUES. THUS WILL GO WITH UPPER 70S ACROSS
MAINLY WRN AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE WITH A GENERAL 70 TO
75 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS LOCATIONS TO THE E. WITH RAINFALL ACROSS
LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TN/AL THIS AFTERNOON AND CLRING
SKIES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THOSE LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCED PATCHY FOG. THOUGH KEEPING MOST OF THE MID STATE DRY
TODAY...JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND DIURNAL BASED INSTABILITY MAY BE
PRESENT FOR SOME ISO SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP. A FEW STRONG TSTMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL CAN CERTAINLY NOT BE RULED OUT.

WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS W TO E WED NIGHT AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN AND A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...AND 850MB JET
STRENGTHENS...ALONG WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SFC WARM FRONT FINALLY
PUSHING N OF THE MID STATE. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM LOWER 50S PLATEAU
TO APPROACHING 60 TN RIVER VALLEY REGION.

A GULF WAA SCENARIO WILL BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ON THU...WITH A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS AS
THU PROGRESSES FOR SCT...MAINLY AFTERNOON...SHWRS/TSTMS. SOME STORMS
TSTMS COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FOR NW 1/3 OF MID STATE...INCLUDING METRO
NASHVILLE AREA AND CLARKSVILLE...WHERE SPC HAS PLACED US UNDER A DAY
TWO MARGINAL SVR TSTM RISKS. AGAIN WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
GFS MOS NUMBERS HERE AS BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S PLATEAU REGION. LOWS THU NIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S AS BEST POTENTIAL OF SHWRS/TSTMS
REMAINS JUST N/NW OF MID STATE...AND TAILORED POPS NW LIKELY TO SE
CHANCE AS A RESULT. A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS STATES AS THE NIGHTIME HOURS PROGRESS ALSO.

AS FOR FRI...SPC PLACING THE ENTIRE MID STATE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SVR TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS
ACROSS THE PLATEAU COUNTIES ON FRI...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THE MAIN CONCERNS. GFS/EURO NOW MORE OF A CONSENSUS
AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE STRONG COLD FRONT THRU THE MID STATE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS ON FRI. AS REFERENCED ABOVE...BELIEVE THE
MAIN TIME FRAME FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HRS AND WENT WITH CAT SHWRS/TSTMS THEN. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY
RANGE IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREES RANGE...MID TO UPPER 60S PLATEAU.
EXPECT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE QUICKLY E OF MID STATE AS FRI NIGHT
PROGRESSES...AS BASE OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH BUILDING CNTRL PLAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES. SKIES
MAY CLEAR OUT FAST ENOUGH BY LATE FRI NIGHT FOR SOME UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE PLATEAU REGION...WITH LOW TEMPS AROUND 40 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM(SAT THRU TUE)...
BY SATURDAY MORNING...A COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TOWARD MID TN. SATURDAY WILL BE A
SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS FROM 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH CENTER
WILL BE OVER MID TN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS
ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY. PATCHY FROST WILL BE A CONCERN
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A FEW OF THE USUAL COLDER...SHELTERED
AREAS EAST OF I 65 MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK AROUND
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST ON
SUNDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO QUICKLY REBOUND WELL INTO THE 60S UNDER
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THAT...WE HAVE A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S...AND LOWS
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THAT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES...PROBABLY ON THURSDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      78  56  78  63 /  05  30  50  70
CLARKSVILLE    74  57  78  64 /  05  30  50  70
CROSSVILLE     70  52  68  58 /  05  20  50  40
COLUMBIA       77  58  78  63 /  10  30  50  50
LAWRENCEBURG   76  59  77  62 /  20  30  50  40
WAVERLY        76  59  79  64 /  05  30  50  70
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31/13









000
FXUS64 KOHX 010858
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU FRI NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THRU THU FRI
NIGHT...STRENGTH OF TSTM ACTIVITY...TEMPS.

EXPECT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES TO BECOME MORE ENHANCED AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH CURRENT BUILDING SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES
STRETCHING DOWN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO N PORTIONS OF THE MID
STATE. MAY NOT REACH AS HIGH OF TEMPS TODAY AS YESTERDAY...AS WEAK
COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES JUST S OF MID STATE AND THEN SLOWLY COMES
BACK AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS WRN TN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GFS MOS
HAS BEEN THE "KING" OF TEMP FORECASTING AS OF LATE...YES...GFS
MOS...YOU ARE WORTHY...AND PLAYING AN APRIL FOOLS JOKE ON IT AGAIN
LIKE UNDERCUTTING IT VALUES FOR HIGHS WOULD BE A LOOSING PROPOSITION
FOR THE THIRD MORNING IN A ROW. BELIEVE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ENHANCEMENTS...DESPITE A LITTLE DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING INTO MOST OF
THE MID STATE TODAY...THAT TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN GFS MOS VALUES. THUS WILL GO WITH UPPER 70S ACROSS
MAINLY WRN AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE WITH A GENERAL 70 TO
75 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS LOCATIONS TO THE E. WITH RAINFALL ACROSS
LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TN/AL THIS AFTERNOON AND CLRING
SKIES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THOSE LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCED PATCHY FOG. THOUGH KEEPING MOST OF THE MID STATE DRY
TODAY...JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND DIURNAL BASED INSTABILITY MAY BE
PRESENT FOR SOME ISO SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP. A FEW STRONG TSTMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL CAN CERTAINLY NOT BE RULED OUT.

WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS W TO E WED NIGHT AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN AND A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...AND 850MB JET
STRENGTHENS...ALONG WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SFC WARM FRONT FINALLY
PUSHING N OF THE MID STATE. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM LOWER 50S PLATEAU
TO APPROACHING 60 TN RIVER VALLEY REGION.

MOST OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE MID STATE WILL BE IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SVR TSTMS ON THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE AFTERNOON HOURS
PROGRESS...AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MID STATE WITH
ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT NOW WELL NE OF THE MID STATE AS BROAD WAA
SCENARIO BEGINS TO BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
IS USHERED IN FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION...AS HIGHS WILL BE
SPANNING THE 70S ACROSS THE MID STATE...IN SOME INSTANCES AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY
SPANNING THE 60S ON THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING INTO
THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES ALOFT POSSIBLE...AS
SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z FRI.
A GULF WAA SCENARIO WILL BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ON THU...WITH A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS AS
THU PROGRESSES FOR SCT...MAINLY AFTERNOON...SHWRS/TSTMS. SOME STORMS
TSTMS COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FOR NW 1/3 OF MID STATE...INCLUDING METRO
NASHVILLE AREA AND CLARKSVILLE...WHERE SPC HAS PLACED US UNDER A DAY
TWO MARGINAL SVR TSTM RISKS. AGAIN WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
GFS MOS NUMBERS HERE AS BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S... UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S PLATEAU REGION. LOWS THU
NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S AS BEST POTENTIAL OF SHWRS/TSTMS
REMAINS JUST N/NW OF MID STATE...AND TAILORED POPS NW LIKELY TO SE
CHANCE AS A RESULT.

AS FOR FRI...SPC PLACING THE ENTIRE MID STATE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SVR TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS
ACROSS THE PLATEAU COUNTIES ON FRI...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THE MAIN CONCERNS. GFS/EURO NOW MORE OF A CONSENSUS
AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE STRONG COLD FRONT THRU THE MID STATE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS ON FRI. AS REFERENCED ABOVE...BELIEVE THE
MAIN TIME FRAME FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HRS AND WENT WITH CAT SHWRS/TSTMS THEN. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY
RANGE IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREES RANGE...MID TO UPPER 60S PLATEAU.
EXPECT FRONT SYSTEM TO MOVE QUICKLY E OF MID STATE AS FRI NIGHT
PROGRESSES...AS BASE OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH BUILDING CNTRL PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES. SKIES MAY
CLEAR OUT FAST ENOUGH BY LATE FRI NIGHT FOR SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE PLATEAU REGION...WITH LOW TEMPS AROUND 40 DEGREES ALSO.

.LONG TERM(SAT THRU TUE)...
BY SATURDAY MORNING...A COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TOWARD MID TN. SATURDAY WILL BE A
SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS FROM 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH CENTER
WILL BE OVER MID TN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS
ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY. PATCHY FROST WILL BE A CONCERN
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A FEW OF THE USUAL COLDER...SHELTERED
AREAS EAST OF I 65 MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK AROUND
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST ON
SUNDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO QUICKLY REBOUND WELL INTO THE 60S UNDER
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THAT...WE HAVE A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S...AND LOWS
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THAT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES...PROBABLY ON THURSDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      78  56  78  63 /  05  30  50  70
CLARKSVILLE    74  57  78  64 /  05  30  50  70
CROSSVILLE     70  52  68  58 /  05  20  50  40
COLUMBIA       77  58  78  63 /  10  30  50  50
LAWRENCEBURG   76  59  77  62 /  20  30  50  40
WAVERLY        76  59  79  64 /  05  30  50  70
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31/13






000
FXUS64 KOHX 010858
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU FRI NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THRU THU FRI
NIGHT...STRENGTH OF TSTM ACTIVITY...TEMPS.

EXPECT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES TO BECOME MORE ENHANCED AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH CURRENT BUILDING SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES
STRETCHING DOWN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO N PORTIONS OF THE MID
STATE. MAY NOT REACH AS HIGH OF TEMPS TODAY AS YESTERDAY...AS WEAK
COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES JUST S OF MID STATE AND THEN SLOWLY COMES
BACK AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS WRN TN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GFS MOS
HAS BEEN THE "KING" OF TEMP FORECASTING AS OF LATE...YES...GFS
MOS...YOU ARE WORTHY...AND PLAYING AN APRIL FOOLS JOKE ON IT AGAIN
LIKE UNDERCUTTING IT VALUES FOR HIGHS WOULD BE A LOOSING PROPOSITION
FOR THE THIRD MORNING IN A ROW. BELIEVE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ENHANCEMENTS...DESPITE A LITTLE DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING INTO MOST OF
THE MID STATE TODAY...THAT TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN GFS MOS VALUES. THUS WILL GO WITH UPPER 70S ACROSS
MAINLY WRN AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE WITH A GENERAL 70 TO
75 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS LOCATIONS TO THE E. WITH RAINFALL ACROSS
LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TN/AL THIS AFTERNOON AND CLRING
SKIES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THOSE LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCED PATCHY FOG. THOUGH KEEPING MOST OF THE MID STATE DRY
TODAY...JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND DIURNAL BASED INSTABILITY MAY BE
PRESENT FOR SOME ISO SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP. A FEW STRONG TSTMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL CAN CERTAINLY NOT BE RULED OUT.

WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS W TO E WED NIGHT AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN AND A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...AND 850MB JET
STRENGTHENS...ALONG WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SFC WARM FRONT FINALLY
PUSHING N OF THE MID STATE. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM LOWER 50S PLATEAU
TO APPROACHING 60 TN RIVER VALLEY REGION.

MOST OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE MID STATE WILL BE IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SVR TSTMS ON THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE AFTERNOON HOURS
PROGRESS...AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MID STATE WITH
ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT NOW WELL NE OF THE MID STATE AS BROAD WAA
SCENARIO BEGINS TO BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
IS USHERED IN FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION...AS HIGHS WILL BE
SPANNING THE 70S ACROSS THE MID STATE...IN SOME INSTANCES AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY
SPANNING THE 60S ON THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING INTO
THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES ALOFT POSSIBLE...AS
SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z FRI.
A GULF WAA SCENARIO WILL BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ON THU...WITH A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS AS
THU PROGRESSES FOR SCT...MAINLY AFTERNOON...SHWRS/TSTMS. SOME STORMS
TSTMS COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FOR NW 1/3 OF MID STATE...INCLUDING METRO
NASHVILLE AREA AND CLARKSVILLE...WHERE SPC HAS PLACED US UNDER A DAY
TWO MARGINAL SVR TSTM RISKS. AGAIN WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
GFS MOS NUMBERS HERE AS BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S... UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S PLATEAU REGION. LOWS THU
NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S AS BEST POTENTIAL OF SHWRS/TSTMS
REMAINS JUST N/NW OF MID STATE...AND TAILORED POPS NW LIKELY TO SE
CHANCE AS A RESULT.

AS FOR FRI...SPC PLACING THE ENTIRE MID STATE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SVR TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS
ACROSS THE PLATEAU COUNTIES ON FRI...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THE MAIN CONCERNS. GFS/EURO NOW MORE OF A CONSENSUS
AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE STRONG COLD FRONT THRU THE MID STATE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS ON FRI. AS REFERENCED ABOVE...BELIEVE THE
MAIN TIME FRAME FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HRS AND WENT WITH CAT SHWRS/TSTMS THEN. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY
RANGE IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREES RANGE...MID TO UPPER 60S PLATEAU.
EXPECT FRONT SYSTEM TO MOVE QUICKLY E OF MID STATE AS FRI NIGHT
PROGRESSES...AS BASE OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH BUILDING CNTRL PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES. SKIES MAY
CLEAR OUT FAST ENOUGH BY LATE FRI NIGHT FOR SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE PLATEAU REGION...WITH LOW TEMPS AROUND 40 DEGREES ALSO.

.LONG TERM(SAT THRU TUE)...
BY SATURDAY MORNING...A COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TOWARD MID TN. SATURDAY WILL BE A
SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS FROM 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH CENTER
WILL BE OVER MID TN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS
ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY. PATCHY FROST WILL BE A CONCERN
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A FEW OF THE USUAL COLDER...SHELTERED
AREAS EAST OF I 65 MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK AROUND
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST ON
SUNDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO QUICKLY REBOUND WELL INTO THE 60S UNDER
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THAT...WE HAVE A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S...AND LOWS
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THAT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES...PROBABLY ON THURSDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      78  56  78  63 /  05  30  50  70
CLARKSVILLE    74  57  78  64 /  05  30  50  70
CROSSVILLE     70  52  68  58 /  05  20  50  40
COLUMBIA       77  58  78  63 /  10  30  50  50
LAWRENCEBURG   76  59  77  62 /  20  30  50  40
WAVERLY        76  59  79  64 /  05  30  50  70
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31/13





000
FXUS64 KMEG 010821
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
321 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAVE EXITED THE REGION SO WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL START TO MOVE BACK
TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

BY THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

BY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING AS THE MAIN THREATS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
BUT A LITTLE WARM ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS IT DOES...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
MORE ON MONDAY AND BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KMEM
AND KTUP WITH PREVAILING VFR CIGS WITH TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS OF
CIGS/VSBYS IN CONVECTION. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
PRIOR TO 01/09Z WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

LOWER LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REDEVELOP
AT KMEM...KJBR...AND KTUP TOWARDS SUNRISE AND PERSIST THROUGH
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. THIS MVFR CLOUD COVER SHOULD MIX OUT BY
MID MORNING WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH REINTRODUCTION OF POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 010821
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
321 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAVE EXITED THE REGION SO WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL START TO MOVE BACK
TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

BY THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

BY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING AS THE MAIN THREATS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
BUT A LITTLE WARM ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS IT DOES...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
MORE ON MONDAY AND BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KMEM
AND KTUP WITH PREVAILING VFR CIGS WITH TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS OF
CIGS/VSBYS IN CONVECTION. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
PRIOR TO 01/09Z WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

LOWER LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REDEVELOP
AT KMEM...KJBR...AND KTUP TOWARDS SUNRISE AND PERSIST THROUGH
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. THIS MVFR CLOUD COVER SHOULD MIX OUT BY
MID MORNING WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH REINTRODUCTION OF POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 010722
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
322 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STAYING OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND SHOULD
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING. LINGERING
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT PARTS OF THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT LEADING TO
A QUITE PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60`S TO MID 70`S
TODAY. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL HAVE TO
WAIT UNTIL TOMORROW.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR THURSDAY...SURFACE
RIDGING MOVES EAST ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN PULLING
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE
POPS GOING FOR THURSDAY AS AIRMASS WILL BE UNSTABLE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR FRIDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLO-
GENESIS MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE EAST TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW STRONG
UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WITH
CIRCULATIONS AROUND THE JET ENHANCING FRONTO-GENETIC FORCING ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH
CAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. GOOD SPEED SHEAR NOTED AHEAD OF FRONT.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH EXPECTED LINE OF STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AS MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF 50-60KTS.
BOWING OF STORMS AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
PROBLEM. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...RIDGING MOVES EAST ALLOWING GULF MOISTURE TO RETURN WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FAST MOVING SHORT-WAVES PRODUCING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  52  74  59 /   0  30  50  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  71  48  72  59 /   0  20  40  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       71  48  72  59 /   0  20  40  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              68  40  73  55 /   0  10  40  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM/DH




000
FXUS64 KMRX 010722
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
322 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STAYING OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND SHOULD
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING. LINGERING
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT PARTS OF THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT LEADING TO
A QUITE PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60`S TO MID 70`S
TODAY. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL HAVE TO
WAIT UNTIL TOMORROW.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR THURSDAY...SURFACE
RIDGING MOVES EAST ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN PULLING
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE
POPS GOING FOR THURSDAY AS AIRMASS WILL BE UNSTABLE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR FRIDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLO-
GENESIS MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE EAST TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW STRONG
UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WITH
CIRCULATIONS AROUND THE JET ENHANCING FRONTO-GENETIC FORCING ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH
CAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. GOOD SPEED SHEAR NOTED AHEAD OF FRONT.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH EXPECTED LINE OF STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AS MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF 50-60KTS.
BOWING OF STORMS AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
PROBLEM. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...RIDGING MOVES EAST ALLOWING GULF MOISTURE TO RETURN WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FAST MOVING SHORT-WAVES PRODUCING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  52  74  59 /   0  30  50  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  71  48  72  59 /   0  20  40  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       71  48  72  59 /   0  20  40  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              68  40  73  55 /   0  10  40  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM/DH



000
FXUS64 KMRX 010722
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
322 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STAYING OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND SHOULD
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING. LINGERING
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT PARTS OF THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT LEADING TO
A QUITE PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60`S TO MID 70`S
TODAY. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL HAVE TO
WAIT UNTIL TOMORROW.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR THURSDAY...SURFACE
RIDGING MOVES EAST ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN PULLING
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE
POPS GOING FOR THURSDAY AS AIRMASS WILL BE UNSTABLE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR FRIDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLO-
GENESIS MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE EAST TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW STRONG
UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WITH
CIRCULATIONS AROUND THE JET ENHANCING FRONTO-GENETIC FORCING ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH
CAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. GOOD SPEED SHEAR NOTED AHEAD OF FRONT.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH EXPECTED LINE OF STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AS MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF 50-60KTS.
BOWING OF STORMS AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
PROBLEM. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...RIDGING MOVES EAST ALLOWING GULF MOISTURE TO RETURN WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FAST MOVING SHORT-WAVES PRODUCING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  52  74  59 /   0  30  50  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  71  48  72  59 /   0  20  40  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       71  48  72  59 /   0  20  40  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              68  40  73  55 /   0  10  40  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM/DH



000
FXUS64 KMRX 010722
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
322 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STAYING OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND SHOULD
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING. LINGERING
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT PARTS OF THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT LEADING TO
A QUITE PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60`S TO MID 70`S
TODAY. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL HAVE TO
WAIT UNTIL TOMORROW.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR THURSDAY...SURFACE
RIDGING MOVES EAST ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN PULLING
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE
POPS GOING FOR THURSDAY AS AIRMASS WILL BE UNSTABLE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR FRIDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLO-
GENESIS MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE EAST TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW STRONG
UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WITH
CIRCULATIONS AROUND THE JET ENHANCING FRONTO-GENETIC FORCING ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH
CAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. GOOD SPEED SHEAR NOTED AHEAD OF FRONT.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH EXPECTED LINE OF STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AS MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF 50-60KTS.
BOWING OF STORMS AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
PROBLEM. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...RIDGING MOVES EAST ALLOWING GULF MOISTURE TO RETURN WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FAST MOVING SHORT-WAVES PRODUCING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  52  74  59 /   0  30  50  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  71  48  72  59 /   0  20  40  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       71  48  72  59 /   0  20  40  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              68  40  73  55 /   0  10  40  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM/DH




000
FXUS64 KMRX 010527
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
127 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.AVIATION...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF CHA HAS RESULTED IN DENSE CLOUD COVER
SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT DOWN INTO NORTHERN AL AND GA. SAT IMAGERY
REVEALS CHA IS RIDING A FINE LINE BETWEEN THE THICKER/THINNER
CLOUDS AS WELL AS LOWER CIGS. WILL LEAVE LOWER CIGS OUT OF CHA FOR
NOW BUT A BKN MID- DECK MAY CREEP NORTHWARD INTO CHA LATER TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES BY TOMORROW MORNING AND LIGHT WINDS
ANTICIPATED AT ALL THREE SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 010527
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
127 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.AVIATION...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF CHA HAS RESULTED IN DENSE CLOUD COVER
SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT DOWN INTO NORTHERN AL AND GA. SAT IMAGERY
REVEALS CHA IS RIDING A FINE LINE BETWEEN THE THICKER/THINNER
CLOUDS AS WELL AS LOWER CIGS. WILL LEAVE LOWER CIGS OUT OF CHA FOR
NOW BUT A BKN MID- DECK MAY CREEP NORTHWARD INTO CHA LATER TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES BY TOMORROW MORNING AND LIGHT WINDS
ANTICIPATED AT ALL THREE SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR



000
FXUS64 KMRX 010527
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
127 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.AVIATION...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF CHA HAS RESULTED IN DENSE CLOUD COVER
SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT DOWN INTO NORTHERN AL AND GA. SAT IMAGERY
REVEALS CHA IS RIDING A FINE LINE BETWEEN THE THICKER/THINNER
CLOUDS AS WELL AS LOWER CIGS. WILL LEAVE LOWER CIGS OUT OF CHA FOR
NOW BUT A BKN MID- DECK MAY CREEP NORTHWARD INTO CHA LATER TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES BY TOMORROW MORNING AND LIGHT WINDS
ANTICIPATED AT ALL THREE SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 010527
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
127 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.AVIATION...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF CHA HAS RESULTED IN DENSE CLOUD COVER
SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT DOWN INTO NORTHERN AL AND GA. SAT IMAGERY
REVEALS CHA IS RIDING A FINE LINE BETWEEN THE THICKER/THINNER
CLOUDS AS WELL AS LOWER CIGS. WILL LEAVE LOWER CIGS OUT OF CHA FOR
NOW BUT A BKN MID- DECK MAY CREEP NORTHWARD INTO CHA LATER TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES BY TOMORROW MORNING AND LIGHT WINDS
ANTICIPATED AT ALL THREE SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR



000
FXUS64 KMEG 010454
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1154 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATE TO EXPAND AND EXTEND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #13.

DISCUSSION...

A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE FIRST BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM
LAUDERDALE COUNTY TENNESSEE SOUTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AS OF 0330Z AND THE SECOND FROM LAWRENCE COUNTY
ARKANSAS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MEMPHIS METRO. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND ARE BEING FED AND
ENERGIZED BY A WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE BOUNDARIES
AROUND 5KFT. A RESERVOIR OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR CHARACTERIZED
BY MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7.5 C/KM TO THE WEST IS FEEDING IN ON THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
ALLOWING FOR SOME STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL.

IN ADDITION...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL SHEAR PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR
BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING STORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE SLOW MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

UPDATED ZONES...GRIDS...AND HAZARDS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENTERING AR FROM OK WHICH HAS HELPED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRIOR SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC FROM 740MB UP TO
575MB. MINUS 20C LEVELS WERE IMPRESSIVELY LOW AT 19.3KFT. 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DOWNSTREAM SURFACE- BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS AT 21Z...WITH LIMITED CINH.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH MS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE EVENING... BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER
NORTHEAST AR THIS EVENING...AS A MORE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN MO. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME
ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MAY SEE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CAPPING UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THE CAP COULD TAP
INTO SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z/31 NAM SHOWING
3500-4000 J/KG OF SURFACED BASED CAPE OVER THE EASTERN AR AND
NORTHWEST MS DELTA.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR THROUGH WEST TN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OZARKS.
FRONTAL SPEED SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
PREFRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE MAY BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO THE
DELTA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KMEM
AND KTUP WITH PREVAILING VFR CIGS WITH TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS OF
CIGS/VSBYS IN CONVECTION. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
PRIOR TO 01/09Z WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

LOWER LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REDEVELOP
AT KMEM...KJBR...AND KTUP TOWARDS SUNRISE AND PERSIST THROUGH
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. THIS MVFR CLOUD COVER SHOULD MIX OUT BY
MID MORNING WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH REINTRODUCTION OF POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-ST.
     FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CHICKASAW-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-
     PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
     UNION.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CHESTER-FAYETTE-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-
     TIPTON.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 010454
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1154 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATE TO EXPAND AND EXTEND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #13.

DISCUSSION...

A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE FIRST BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM
LAUDERDALE COUNTY TENNESSEE SOUTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AS OF 0330Z AND THE SECOND FROM LAWRENCE COUNTY
ARKANSAS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MEMPHIS METRO. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND ARE BEING FED AND
ENERGIZED BY A WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE BOUNDARIES
AROUND 5KFT. A RESERVOIR OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR CHARACTERIZED
BY MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7.5 C/KM TO THE WEST IS FEEDING IN ON THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
ALLOWING FOR SOME STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL.

IN ADDITION...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL SHEAR PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR
BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING STORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE SLOW MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

UPDATED ZONES...GRIDS...AND HAZARDS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENTERING AR FROM OK WHICH HAS HELPED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRIOR SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC FROM 740MB UP TO
575MB. MINUS 20C LEVELS WERE IMPRESSIVELY LOW AT 19.3KFT. 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DOWNSTREAM SURFACE- BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS AT 21Z...WITH LIMITED CINH.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH MS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE EVENING... BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER
NORTHEAST AR THIS EVENING...AS A MORE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN MO. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME
ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MAY SEE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CAPPING UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THE CAP COULD TAP
INTO SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z/31 NAM SHOWING
3500-4000 J/KG OF SURFACED BASED CAPE OVER THE EASTERN AR AND
NORTHWEST MS DELTA.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR THROUGH WEST TN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OZARKS.
FRONTAL SPEED SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
PREFRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE MAY BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO THE
DELTA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KMEM
AND KTUP WITH PREVAILING VFR CIGS WITH TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS OF
CIGS/VSBYS IN CONVECTION. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
PRIOR TO 01/09Z WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

LOWER LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REDEVELOP
AT KMEM...KJBR...AND KTUP TOWARDS SUNRISE AND PERSIST THROUGH
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. THIS MVFR CLOUD COVER SHOULD MIX OUT BY
MID MORNING WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH REINTRODUCTION OF POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-ST.
     FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CHICKASAW-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-
     PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
     UNION.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CHESTER-FAYETTE-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-
     TIPTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 010454
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1154 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATE TO EXPAND AND EXTEND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #13.

DISCUSSION...

A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE FIRST BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM
LAUDERDALE COUNTY TENNESSEE SOUTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AS OF 0330Z AND THE SECOND FROM LAWRENCE COUNTY
ARKANSAS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MEMPHIS METRO. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND ARE BEING FED AND
ENERGIZED BY A WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE BOUNDARIES
AROUND 5KFT. A RESERVOIR OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR CHARACTERIZED
BY MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7.5 C/KM TO THE WEST IS FEEDING IN ON THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
ALLOWING FOR SOME STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL.

IN ADDITION...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL SHEAR PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR
BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING STORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE SLOW MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

UPDATED ZONES...GRIDS...AND HAZARDS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENTERING AR FROM OK WHICH HAS HELPED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRIOR SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC FROM 740MB UP TO
575MB. MINUS 20C LEVELS WERE IMPRESSIVELY LOW AT 19.3KFT. 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DOWNSTREAM SURFACE- BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS AT 21Z...WITH LIMITED CINH.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH MS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE EVENING... BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER
NORTHEAST AR THIS EVENING...AS A MORE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN MO. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME
ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MAY SEE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CAPPING UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THE CAP COULD TAP
INTO SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z/31 NAM SHOWING
3500-4000 J/KG OF SURFACED BASED CAPE OVER THE EASTERN AR AND
NORTHWEST MS DELTA.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR THROUGH WEST TN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OZARKS.
FRONTAL SPEED SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
PREFRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE MAY BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO THE
DELTA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KMEM
AND KTUP WITH PREVAILING VFR CIGS WITH TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS OF
CIGS/VSBYS IN CONVECTION. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
PRIOR TO 01/09Z WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

LOWER LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REDEVELOP
AT KMEM...KJBR...AND KTUP TOWARDS SUNRISE AND PERSIST THROUGH
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. THIS MVFR CLOUD COVER SHOULD MIX OUT BY
MID MORNING WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH REINTRODUCTION OF POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-ST.
     FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CHICKASAW-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-
     PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
     UNION.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CHESTER-FAYETTE-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-
     TIPTON.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 010454
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1154 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATE TO EXPAND AND EXTEND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #13.

DISCUSSION...

A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE FIRST BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM
LAUDERDALE COUNTY TENNESSEE SOUTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AS OF 0330Z AND THE SECOND FROM LAWRENCE COUNTY
ARKANSAS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MEMPHIS METRO. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND ARE BEING FED AND
ENERGIZED BY A WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE BOUNDARIES
AROUND 5KFT. A RESERVOIR OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR CHARACTERIZED
BY MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7.5 C/KM TO THE WEST IS FEEDING IN ON THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
ALLOWING FOR SOME STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL.

IN ADDITION...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL SHEAR PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR
BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING STORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE SLOW MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

UPDATED ZONES...GRIDS...AND HAZARDS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENTERING AR FROM OK WHICH HAS HELPED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRIOR SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC FROM 740MB UP TO
575MB. MINUS 20C LEVELS WERE IMPRESSIVELY LOW AT 19.3KFT. 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DOWNSTREAM SURFACE- BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS AT 21Z...WITH LIMITED CINH.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH MS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE EVENING... BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER
NORTHEAST AR THIS EVENING...AS A MORE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN MO. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME
ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MAY SEE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CAPPING UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THE CAP COULD TAP
INTO SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z/31 NAM SHOWING
3500-4000 J/KG OF SURFACED BASED CAPE OVER THE EASTERN AR AND
NORTHWEST MS DELTA.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR THROUGH WEST TN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OZARKS.
FRONTAL SPEED SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
PREFRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE MAY BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO THE
DELTA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KMEM
AND KTUP WITH PREVAILING VFR CIGS WITH TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS OF
CIGS/VSBYS IN CONVECTION. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
PRIOR TO 01/09Z WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

LOWER LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REDEVELOP
AT KMEM...KJBR...AND KTUP TOWARDS SUNRISE AND PERSIST THROUGH
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. THIS MVFR CLOUD COVER SHOULD MIX OUT BY
MID MORNING WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH REINTRODUCTION OF POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-ST.
     FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CHICKASAW-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-
     PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
     UNION.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CHESTER-FAYETTE-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-
     TIPTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 010342
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1042 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED FROM LOW CENTER IN NORTH CAROLINA ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO A LOW IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. FRONT
WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND INTO ALABAMA OVERNIGHT. ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAINLY ACROSS ARKANSAS AND DOWN THROUGH MISSISSIPPI. NEXT CHANCE
FOR STORMS IN MID STATE LOOKS BE AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SO ALL IN ALL AVIATION FORECAST LOOKS GOOD NEXT 24 HOURS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.





&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 010342
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1042 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED FROM LOW CENTER IN NORTH CAROLINA ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO A LOW IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. FRONT
WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND INTO ALABAMA OVERNIGHT. ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAINLY ACROSS ARKANSAS AND DOWN THROUGH MISSISSIPPI. NEXT CHANCE
FOR STORMS IN MID STATE LOOKS BE AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SO ALL IN ALL AVIATION FORECAST LOOKS GOOD NEXT 24 HOURS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.





&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 010342
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1042 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED FROM LOW CENTER IN NORTH CAROLINA ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO A LOW IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. FRONT
WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND INTO ALABAMA OVERNIGHT. ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAINLY ACROSS ARKANSAS AND DOWN THROUGH MISSISSIPPI. NEXT CHANCE
FOR STORMS IN MID STATE LOOKS BE AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SO ALL IN ALL AVIATION FORECAST LOOKS GOOD NEXT 24 HOURS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.





&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 010342
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1042 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED FROM LOW CENTER IN NORTH CAROLINA ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO A LOW IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. FRONT
WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND INTO ALABAMA OVERNIGHT. ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAINLY ACROSS ARKANSAS AND DOWN THROUGH MISSISSIPPI. NEXT CHANCE
FOR STORMS IN MID STATE LOOKS BE AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SO ALL IN ALL AVIATION FORECAST LOOKS GOOD NEXT 24 HOURS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.





&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KMEG 010333
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1033 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATE TO EXPAND AND EXTEND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #13.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE FIRST BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM
LAUDERDALE COUNTY TENNESSEE SOUTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AS OF 0330Z AND THE SECOND FROM LAWRENCE COUNTY
ARKANSAS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MEMPHIS METRO. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND ARE BEING FED AND
ENERGIZED BY A WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE BOUNDARIES
AROUND 5KFT. A RESERVOIR OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR CHARACTERIZED
BY MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7.5 C/KM TO THE WEST IS FEEDING IN ON THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
ALLOWING FOR SOME STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL.

IN ADDITION...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL SHEAR PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR
BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING STORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE SLOW MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

UPDATED ZONES...GRIDS...AND HAZARDS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENTERING AR FROM OK WHICH HAS HELPED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRIOR SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC FROM 740MB UP TO
575MB. MINUS 20C LEVELS WERE IMPRESSIVELY LOW AT 19.3KFT. 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DOWNSTREAM SURFACE- BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS AT 21Z...WITH LIMITED CINH.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH MS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE EVENING... BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER
NORTHEAST AR THIS EVENING...AS A MORE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN MO. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME
ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MAY SEE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CAPPING UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THE CAP COULD TAP
INTO SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z/31 NAM SHOWING
3500-4000 J/KG OF SURFACED BASED CAPE OVER THE EASTERN AR AND
NORTHWEST MS DELTA.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR THROUGH WEST TN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OZARKS.
FRONTAL SPEED SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
PREFRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE MAY BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO THE
DELTA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH MID EVENING WITH PREVAILING VFR CIGS WITH
TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS OF CIGS/VSBYS IN CONVECTION. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH PRIOR TO 01/05Z WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

LOWER LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REDEVELOP
AT KMEM...KJBR...AND KTUP TOWARDS 01/09Z AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS MVFR CLOUD COVER SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING
WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH REINTRODUCTION OF POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
CONVECTION.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 010333
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1033 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATE TO EXPAND AND EXTEND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #13.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE FIRST BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM
LAUDERDALE COUNTY TENNESSEE SOUTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AS OF 0330Z AND THE SECOND FROM LAWRENCE COUNTY
ARKANSAS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MEMPHIS METRO. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND ARE BEING FED AND
ENERGIZED BY A WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE BOUNDARIES
AROUND 5KFT. A RESERVOIR OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR CHARACTERIZED
BY MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7.5 C/KM TO THE WEST IS FEEDING IN ON THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
ALLOWING FOR SOME STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL.

IN ADDITION...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL SHEAR PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR
BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING STORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE SLOW MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

UPDATED ZONES...GRIDS...AND HAZARDS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENTERING AR FROM OK WHICH HAS HELPED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRIOR SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC FROM 740MB UP TO
575MB. MINUS 20C LEVELS WERE IMPRESSIVELY LOW AT 19.3KFT. 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DOWNSTREAM SURFACE- BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS AT 21Z...WITH LIMITED CINH.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH MS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE EVENING... BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER
NORTHEAST AR THIS EVENING...AS A MORE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN MO. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME
ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MAY SEE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CAPPING UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THE CAP COULD TAP
INTO SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z/31 NAM SHOWING
3500-4000 J/KG OF SURFACED BASED CAPE OVER THE EASTERN AR AND
NORTHWEST MS DELTA.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR THROUGH WEST TN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OZARKS.
FRONTAL SPEED SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
PREFRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE MAY BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO THE
DELTA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH MID EVENING WITH PREVAILING VFR CIGS WITH
TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS OF CIGS/VSBYS IN CONVECTION. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH PRIOR TO 01/05Z WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

LOWER LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REDEVELOP
AT KMEM...KJBR...AND KTUP TOWARDS 01/09Z AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS MVFR CLOUD COVER SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING
WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH REINTRODUCTION OF POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
CONVECTION.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 010202
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
902 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...

MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. STORMS ARE HAVING A ROUGH
TIME CROSSING THE TN RIVER VALLEY INTO MIDDLE TN NORTH OF WAYNE
COUNTY DUE TO MUCH LESS FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE 20 TO 30 DEGREES IN PLACES...AND MUCH OF
THE RICHER MOISTURE IS STILL SOUTH OF THE TN/AL BORDER. SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY CARRY OVER BUT FOR THE MOST PART LEFT SCHC
FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE FAR SW TIER OF THE CWA AS PLENTIFUL
RAINFALL HAS BROUGHT DEWPOINTS UP ENOUGH THAT RH VALUES IN THE
MORNING WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
MAY NEED TO EXPAND ON THE PATCHY FOG TO MORE NORTHWARD AREAS LATER
TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE...TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES A BIT AND KEPT THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST AS
IS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BARNWELL





000
FXUS64 KOHX 010202
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
902 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...

MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. STORMS ARE HAVING A ROUGH
TIME CROSSING THE TN RIVER VALLEY INTO MIDDLE TN NORTH OF WAYNE
COUNTY DUE TO MUCH LESS FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE 20 TO 30 DEGREES IN PLACES...AND MUCH OF
THE RICHER MOISTURE IS STILL SOUTH OF THE TN/AL BORDER. SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY CARRY OVER BUT FOR THE MOST PART LEFT SCHC
FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE FAR SW TIER OF THE CWA AS PLENTIFUL
RAINFALL HAS BROUGHT DEWPOINTS UP ENOUGH THAT RH VALUES IN THE
MORNING WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
MAY NEED TO EXPAND ON THE PATCHY FOG TO MORE NORTHWARD AREAS LATER
TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE...TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES A BIT AND KEPT THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST AS
IS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BARNWELL






000
FXUS64 KOHX 010202
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
902 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...

MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. STORMS ARE HAVING A ROUGH
TIME CROSSING THE TN RIVER VALLEY INTO MIDDLE TN NORTH OF WAYNE
COUNTY DUE TO MUCH LESS FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE 20 TO 30 DEGREES IN PLACES...AND MUCH OF
THE RICHER MOISTURE IS STILL SOUTH OF THE TN/AL BORDER. SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY CARRY OVER BUT FOR THE MOST PART LEFT SCHC
FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE FAR SW TIER OF THE CWA AS PLENTIFUL
RAINFALL HAS BROUGHT DEWPOINTS UP ENOUGH THAT RH VALUES IN THE
MORNING WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
MAY NEED TO EXPAND ON THE PATCHY FOG TO MORE NORTHWARD AREAS LATER
TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE...TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES A BIT AND KEPT THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST AS
IS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BARNWELL






000
FXUS64 KOHX 010202
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
902 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...

MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. STORMS ARE HAVING A ROUGH
TIME CROSSING THE TN RIVER VALLEY INTO MIDDLE TN NORTH OF WAYNE
COUNTY DUE TO MUCH LESS FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE 20 TO 30 DEGREES IN PLACES...AND MUCH OF
THE RICHER MOISTURE IS STILL SOUTH OF THE TN/AL BORDER. SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY CARRY OVER BUT FOR THE MOST PART LEFT SCHC
FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE FAR SW TIER OF THE CWA AS PLENTIFUL
RAINFALL HAS BROUGHT DEWPOINTS UP ENOUGH THAT RH VALUES IN THE
MORNING WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
MAY NEED TO EXPAND ON THE PATCHY FOG TO MORE NORTHWARD AREAS LATER
TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE...TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES A BIT AND KEPT THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST AS
IS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BARNWELL





000
FXUS64 KMRX 010137
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
937 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...PREVIOUS FORECAST GOING PRETTY MUCH AS PLANNED. THERE
HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA BUT ALL CONFINED
TO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SWNC. A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED STORM STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
INSTABILITY LESSENS. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. DID EXTEND POP CHANCES A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SWNC AS LATEST HRRR SHOWS
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THESE AREAS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
ROLLS THROUGH A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONT STILL
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GRIDS. TWEAKED SKY COVER TO REDUCE SOME
AREAS FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY...AND FOR THE POP
ADJUSTMENT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. BIGGEST TWEAK TO GRIDS WERE HOURLY
TEMPS WHICH WERE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN IN FORECAST
GRIDS...OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL LOOKED GOOD THOUGH. WILL SEND OUT
UPDATED ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE MINOR CHANGES IN SKY AND POP
GRIDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             51  75  52  74 /  30   0  30  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  45  71  48  72 /  10   0  20  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       46  71  48  72 /  10   0  20  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              39  68  40  73 /  10   0  10  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR



000
FXUS64 KMRX 010137
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
937 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...PREVIOUS FORECAST GOING PRETTY MUCH AS PLANNED. THERE
HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA BUT ALL CONFINED
TO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SWNC. A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED STORM STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
INSTABILITY LESSENS. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. DID EXTEND POP CHANCES A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SWNC AS LATEST HRRR SHOWS
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THESE AREAS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
ROLLS THROUGH A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONT STILL
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GRIDS. TWEAKED SKY COVER TO REDUCE SOME
AREAS FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY...AND FOR THE POP
ADJUSTMENT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. BIGGEST TWEAK TO GRIDS WERE HOURLY
TEMPS WHICH WERE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN IN FORECAST
GRIDS...OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL LOOKED GOOD THOUGH. WILL SEND OUT
UPDATED ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE MINOR CHANGES IN SKY AND POP
GRIDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             51  75  52  74 /  30   0  30  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  45  71  48  72 /  10   0  20  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       46  71  48  72 /  10   0  20  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              39  68  40  73 /  10   0  10  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KOHX 010134
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
834 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
THE CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THIS EVENING HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE MID STATE. PER LATEST DOPPLER
LOOP CONVECTION THAT HAS TRIED TO GET NORTH AND EAST OF BOUNDARY
HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED. ALTHOUGH CANT STILL RULE OUT A PASSING
SHOWER OR STORM IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS DIMINISHED.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 010134
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
834 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
THE CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THIS EVENING HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE MID STATE. PER LATEST DOPPLER
LOOP CONVECTION THAT HAS TRIED TO GET NORTH AND EAST OF BOUNDARY
HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED. ALTHOUGH CANT STILL RULE OUT A PASSING
SHOWER OR STORM IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS DIMINISHED.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 010134
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
834 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
THE CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THIS EVENING HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE MID STATE. PER LATEST DOPPLER
LOOP CONVECTION THAT HAS TRIED TO GET NORTH AND EAST OF BOUNDARY
HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED. ALTHOUGH CANT STILL RULE OUT A PASSING
SHOWER OR STORM IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS DIMINISHED.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 010134
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
834 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
THE CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THIS EVENING HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE MID STATE. PER LATEST DOPPLER
LOOP CONVECTION THAT HAS TRIED TO GET NORTH AND EAST OF BOUNDARY
HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED. ALTHOUGH CANT STILL RULE OUT A PASSING
SHOWER OR STORM IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS DIMINISHED.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 010134
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
834 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
THE CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THIS EVENING HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE MID STATE. PER LATEST DOPPLER
LOOP CONVECTION THAT HAS TRIED TO GET NORTH AND EAST OF BOUNDARY
HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED. ALTHOUGH CANT STILL RULE OUT A PASSING
SHOWER OR STORM IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS DIMINISHED.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 010134
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
834 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
THE CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THIS EVENING HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE MID STATE. PER LATEST DOPPLER
LOOP CONVECTION THAT HAS TRIED TO GET NORTH AND EAST OF BOUNDARY
HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED. ALTHOUGH CANT STILL RULE OUT A PASSING
SHOWER OR STORM IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS DIMINISHED.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KMEG 312359
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
659 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR EAST AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND WEST TENNESSEE THROUGH 10
PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THERE HAS
BEEN A RECENT UPSWING IN CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ONGOING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE WITH LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG...ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0
C/KM...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING THEY SHOULD
INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT THIS EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE LEAD SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS STILL MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. THE AIRMASS IN THESE AREAS REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH
LARGE HAIL A CONTINUED THREAT. INSTABILITY OVER THESE LOCATIONS
SHOULD WANE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IN THESE LOCATIONS ENDING AROUND SUNSET.

IN BETWEEN ACROSS FAR NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION HAS LIFTED NORTH AND STABILIZED THE
AIRMASS WHERE THERE REMAINS NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. NORTHERN
STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATER THIS
EVENING BUT SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF
BETTER DAYTIME CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THOUGH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND MAY BE ADDED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN WATCH
IF NEEDED.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT ALONG WITH HAZARDS. PLAN TO
UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENTERING AR FROM OK WHICH HAS HELPED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRIOR SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC FROM 740MB UP TO
575MB. MINUS 20C LEVELS WERE IMPRESSIVELY LOW AT 19.3KFT. 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DOWNSTREAM SURFACE- BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS AT 21Z...WITH LIMITED CINH.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH MS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE EVENING... BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER
NORTHEAST AR THIS EVENING...AS A MORE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN MO. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME
ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MAY SEE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CAPPING UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THE CAP COULD TAP
INTO SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z/31 NAM SHOWING
3500-4000 J/KG OF SURFACED BASED CAPE OVER THE EASTERN AR AND
NORTHWEST MS DELTA.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR THROUGH WEST TN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OZARKS.
FRONTAL SPEED SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
PREFRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE MAY BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO THE
DELTA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH MID EVENING WITH PREVAILING VFR CIGS WITH
TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS OF CIGS/VSBYS IN CONVECTION. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH PRIOR TO 01/05Z WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

LOWER LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REDEVELOP
AT KMEM...KJBR...AND KTUP TOWARDS 01/09Z AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS MVFR CLOUD COVER SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING
WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH REINTRODUCTION OF POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
CONVECTION.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 312359
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
659 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR EAST AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND WEST TENNESSEE THROUGH 10
PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THERE HAS
BEEN A RECENT UPSWING IN CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ONGOING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE WITH LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG...ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0
C/KM...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING THEY SHOULD
INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT THIS EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE LEAD SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS STILL MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. THE AIRMASS IN THESE AREAS REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH
LARGE HAIL A CONTINUED THREAT. INSTABILITY OVER THESE LOCATIONS
SHOULD WANE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IN THESE LOCATIONS ENDING AROUND SUNSET.

IN BETWEEN ACROSS FAR NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION HAS LIFTED NORTH AND STABILIZED THE
AIRMASS WHERE THERE REMAINS NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. NORTHERN
STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATER THIS
EVENING BUT SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF
BETTER DAYTIME CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THOUGH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND MAY BE ADDED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN WATCH
IF NEEDED.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT ALONG WITH HAZARDS. PLAN TO
UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENTERING AR FROM OK WHICH HAS HELPED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRIOR SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC FROM 740MB UP TO
575MB. MINUS 20C LEVELS WERE IMPRESSIVELY LOW AT 19.3KFT. 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DOWNSTREAM SURFACE- BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS AT 21Z...WITH LIMITED CINH.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH MS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE EVENING... BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER
NORTHEAST AR THIS EVENING...AS A MORE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN MO. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME
ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MAY SEE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CAPPING UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THE CAP COULD TAP
INTO SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z/31 NAM SHOWING
3500-4000 J/KG OF SURFACED BASED CAPE OVER THE EASTERN AR AND
NORTHWEST MS DELTA.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR THROUGH WEST TN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OZARKS.
FRONTAL SPEED SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
PREFRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE MAY BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO THE
DELTA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH MID EVENING WITH PREVAILING VFR CIGS WITH
TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS OF CIGS/VSBYS IN CONVECTION. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH PRIOR TO 01/05Z WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

LOWER LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REDEVELOP
AT KMEM...KJBR...AND KTUP TOWARDS 01/09Z AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS MVFR CLOUD COVER SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING
WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH REINTRODUCTION OF POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
CONVECTION.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 312359
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
659 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR EAST AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND WEST TENNESSEE THROUGH 10
PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THERE HAS
BEEN A RECENT UPSWING IN CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ONGOING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE WITH LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG...ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0
C/KM...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING THEY SHOULD
INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT THIS EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE LEAD SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS STILL MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. THE AIRMASS IN THESE AREAS REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH
LARGE HAIL A CONTINUED THREAT. INSTABILITY OVER THESE LOCATIONS
SHOULD WANE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IN THESE LOCATIONS ENDING AROUND SUNSET.

IN BETWEEN ACROSS FAR NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION HAS LIFTED NORTH AND STABILIZED THE
AIRMASS WHERE THERE REMAINS NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. NORTHERN
STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATER THIS
EVENING BUT SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF
BETTER DAYTIME CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THOUGH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND MAY BE ADDED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN WATCH
IF NEEDED.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT ALONG WITH HAZARDS. PLAN TO
UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENTERING AR FROM OK WHICH HAS HELPED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRIOR SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC FROM 740MB UP TO
575MB. MINUS 20C LEVELS WERE IMPRESSIVELY LOW AT 19.3KFT. 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DOWNSTREAM SURFACE- BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS AT 21Z...WITH LIMITED CINH.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH MS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE EVENING... BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER
NORTHEAST AR THIS EVENING...AS A MORE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN MO. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME
ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MAY SEE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CAPPING UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THE CAP COULD TAP
INTO SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z/31 NAM SHOWING
3500-4000 J/KG OF SURFACED BASED CAPE OVER THE EASTERN AR AND
NORTHWEST MS DELTA.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR THROUGH WEST TN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OZARKS.
FRONTAL SPEED SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
PREFRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE MAY BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO THE
DELTA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH MID EVENING WITH PREVAILING VFR CIGS WITH
TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS OF CIGS/VSBYS IN CONVECTION. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH PRIOR TO 01/05Z WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

LOWER LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REDEVELOP
AT KMEM...KJBR...AND KTUP TOWARDS 01/09Z AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS MVFR CLOUD COVER SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING
WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH REINTRODUCTION OF POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
CONVECTION.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 312359
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
659 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR EAST AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND WEST TENNESSEE THROUGH 10
PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THERE HAS
BEEN A RECENT UPSWING IN CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ONGOING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE WITH LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG...ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0
C/KM...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING THEY SHOULD
INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT THIS EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE LEAD SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS STILL MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. THE AIRMASS IN THESE AREAS REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH
LARGE HAIL A CONTINUED THREAT. INSTABILITY OVER THESE LOCATIONS
SHOULD WANE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IN THESE LOCATIONS ENDING AROUND SUNSET.

IN BETWEEN ACROSS FAR NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION HAS LIFTED NORTH AND STABILIZED THE
AIRMASS WHERE THERE REMAINS NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. NORTHERN
STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATER THIS
EVENING BUT SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF
BETTER DAYTIME CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THOUGH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND MAY BE ADDED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN WATCH
IF NEEDED.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT ALONG WITH HAZARDS. PLAN TO
UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENTERING AR FROM OK WHICH HAS HELPED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRIOR SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC FROM 740MB UP TO
575MB. MINUS 20C LEVELS WERE IMPRESSIVELY LOW AT 19.3KFT. 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DOWNSTREAM SURFACE- BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS AT 21Z...WITH LIMITED CINH.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH MS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE EVENING... BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER
NORTHEAST AR THIS EVENING...AS A MORE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN MO. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME
ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MAY SEE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CAPPING UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THE CAP COULD TAP
INTO SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z/31 NAM SHOWING
3500-4000 J/KG OF SURFACED BASED CAPE OVER THE EASTERN AR AND
NORTHWEST MS DELTA.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR THROUGH WEST TN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OZARKS.
FRONTAL SPEED SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
PREFRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE MAY BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO THE
DELTA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH MID EVENING WITH PREVAILING VFR CIGS WITH
TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS OF CIGS/VSBYS IN CONVECTION. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH PRIOR TO 01/05Z WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

LOWER LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REDEVELOP
AT KMEM...KJBR...AND KTUP TOWARDS 01/09Z AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS MVFR CLOUD COVER SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING
WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH REINTRODUCTION OF POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
CONVECTION.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 312359
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
659 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR EAST AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND WEST TENNESSEE THROUGH 10
PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THERE HAS
BEEN A RECENT UPSWING IN CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ONGOING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE WITH LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG...ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0
C/KM...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING THEY SHOULD
INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT THIS EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE LEAD SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS STILL MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. THE AIRMASS IN THESE AREAS REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH
LARGE HAIL A CONTINUED THREAT. INSTABILITY OVER THESE LOCATIONS
SHOULD WANE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IN THESE LOCATIONS ENDING AROUND SUNSET.

IN BETWEEN ACROSS FAR NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION HAS LIFTED NORTH AND STABILIZED THE
AIRMASS WHERE THERE REMAINS NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. NORTHERN
STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATER THIS
EVENING BUT SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF
BETTER DAYTIME CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THOUGH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND MAY BE ADDED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN WATCH
IF NEEDED.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT ALONG WITH HAZARDS. PLAN TO
UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENTERING AR FROM OK WHICH HAS HELPED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRIOR SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC FROM 740MB UP TO
575MB. MINUS 20C LEVELS WERE IMPRESSIVELY LOW AT 19.3KFT. 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DOWNSTREAM SURFACE- BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS AT 21Z...WITH LIMITED CINH.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH MS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE EVENING... BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER
NORTHEAST AR THIS EVENING...AS A MORE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN MO. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME
ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MAY SEE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CAPPING UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THE CAP COULD TAP
INTO SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z/31 NAM SHOWING
3500-4000 J/KG OF SURFACED BASED CAPE OVER THE EASTERN AR AND
NORTHWEST MS DELTA.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR THROUGH WEST TN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OZARKS.
FRONTAL SPEED SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
PREFRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE MAY BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO THE
DELTA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH MID EVENING WITH PREVAILING VFR CIGS WITH
TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS OF CIGS/VSBYS IN CONVECTION. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH PRIOR TO 01/05Z WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

LOWER LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REDEVELOP
AT KMEM...KJBR...AND KTUP TOWARDS 01/09Z AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS MVFR CLOUD COVER SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING
WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH REINTRODUCTION OF POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
CONVECTION.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 312330
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
730 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TYS
AND TRI WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE AS A DRIER AIR MASS IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. CHA SHOULD STAY PRECIP FREE BUT INCLUDED
VCSH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CURRENTLY ONGOING WELL SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT DOWN INTO GA AND AL. UP
TOWARD CHA INSTABILITY IS LESS AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS SUNSET
APPROACHES...RESULTING IN A FEW POSSIBLE NEARBY SHOWERS UNTIL
ACTIVITY FURTHER DISSIPATES LATER THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALSO QUICKLY SUBSIDE AS SUNSET NEARS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 312330
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
730 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TYS
AND TRI WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE AS A DRIER AIR MASS IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. CHA SHOULD STAY PRECIP FREE BUT INCLUDED
VCSH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CURRENTLY ONGOING WELL SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT DOWN INTO GA AND AL. UP
TOWARD CHA INSTABILITY IS LESS AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS SUNSET
APPROACHES...RESULTING IN A FEW POSSIBLE NEARBY SHOWERS UNTIL
ACTIVITY FURTHER DISSIPATES LATER THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALSO QUICKLY SUBSIDE AS SUNSET NEARS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 312330
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
730 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TYS
AND TRI WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE AS A DRIER AIR MASS IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. CHA SHOULD STAY PRECIP FREE BUT INCLUDED
VCSH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CURRENTLY ONGOING WELL SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT DOWN INTO GA AND AL. UP
TOWARD CHA INSTABILITY IS LESS AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS SUNSET
APPROACHES...RESULTING IN A FEW POSSIBLE NEARBY SHOWERS UNTIL
ACTIVITY FURTHER DISSIPATES LATER THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALSO QUICKLY SUBSIDE AS SUNSET NEARS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 312330
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
730 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TYS
AND TRI WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE AS A DRIER AIR MASS IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. CHA SHOULD STAY PRECIP FREE BUT INCLUDED
VCSH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CURRENTLY ONGOING WELL SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT DOWN INTO GA AND AL. UP
TOWARD CHA INSTABILITY IS LESS AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS SUNSET
APPROACHES...RESULTING IN A FEW POSSIBLE NEARBY SHOWERS UNTIL
ACTIVITY FURTHER DISSIPATES LATER THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALSO QUICKLY SUBSIDE AS SUNSET NEARS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 312330
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
730 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TYS
AND TRI WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE AS A DRIER AIR MASS IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. CHA SHOULD STAY PRECIP FREE BUT INCLUDED
VCSH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CURRENTLY ONGOING WELL SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT DOWN INTO GA AND AL. UP
TOWARD CHA INSTABILITY IS LESS AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS SUNSET
APPROACHES...RESULTING IN A FEW POSSIBLE NEARBY SHOWERS UNTIL
ACTIVITY FURTHER DISSIPATES LATER THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALSO QUICKLY SUBSIDE AS SUNSET NEARS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 312330
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
730 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TYS
AND TRI WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE AS A DRIER AIR MASS IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. CHA SHOULD STAY PRECIP FREE BUT INCLUDED
VCSH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CURRENTLY ONGOING WELL SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT DOWN INTO GA AND AL. UP
TOWARD CHA INSTABILITY IS LESS AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS SUNSET
APPROACHES...RESULTING IN A FEW POSSIBLE NEARBY SHOWERS UNTIL
ACTIVITY FURTHER DISSIPATES LATER THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALSO QUICKLY SUBSIDE AS SUNSET NEARS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR



000
FXUS64 KOHX 312316
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
616 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...

00Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. STORMS HAVE HELD OFF TO THE SOUTH...AND LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD CALM DOWN BELOW 5
KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR ALL TERMINALS...AND REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. MID MORNING TOMORROW EXPECT EASTERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS...WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CURRENTLY STORMS JUST SOUTH OF ALABAMA BORDER WORKING IN AN EAST-SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION. SURFACE FRONT BASED ON DEWPOINT FIELD DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE JUST BARELY NORTH OF THE ALABAMA BORDER WITH 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINT IN HUNTSVILLE AND 43 AT NASHVILLE. CURRENTLY CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN ALABAMA TO LIKELY REMAIN
SOUTH OF MY CWA...HOWEVER COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPING
IN FAR SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...BOOTHEEL AREA HAS FIRED ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS OUT OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE UP
INTO THE BOOTHEEL AREA...THEN BACK INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S IN THE BOOTHEEL. STORMS CONTINUE TO
CLUSTER WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE LAST HOUR. H-TRIPLE-R
TAKES THIS ACTIVITY DOWN INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND DIMINISHES IT
OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS I WOULD
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO RIDE ALONG FRONTAL SURFACE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KOHX 312316
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
616 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...

00Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. STORMS HAVE HELD OFF TO THE SOUTH...AND LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD CALM DOWN BELOW 5
KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR ALL TERMINALS...AND REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. MID MORNING TOMORROW EXPECT EASTERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS...WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CURRENTLY STORMS JUST SOUTH OF ALABAMA BORDER WORKING IN AN EAST-SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION. SURFACE FRONT BASED ON DEWPOINT FIELD DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE JUST BARELY NORTH OF THE ALABAMA BORDER WITH 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINT IN HUNTSVILLE AND 43 AT NASHVILLE. CURRENTLY CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN ALABAMA TO LIKELY REMAIN
SOUTH OF MY CWA...HOWEVER COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPING
IN FAR SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...BOOTHEEL AREA HAS FIRED ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS OUT OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE UP
INTO THE BOOTHEEL AREA...THEN BACK INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S IN THE BOOTHEEL. STORMS CONTINUE TO
CLUSTER WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE LAST HOUR. H-TRIPLE-R
TAKES THIS ACTIVITY DOWN INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND DIMINISHES IT
OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS I WOULD
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO RIDE ALONG FRONTAL SURFACE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KOHX 312316
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
616 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...

00Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. STORMS HAVE HELD OFF TO THE SOUTH...AND LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD CALM DOWN BELOW 5
KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR ALL TERMINALS...AND REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. MID MORNING TOMORROW EXPECT EASTERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS...WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CURRENTLY STORMS JUST SOUTH OF ALABAMA BORDER WORKING IN AN EAST-SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION. SURFACE FRONT BASED ON DEWPOINT FIELD DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE JUST BARELY NORTH OF THE ALABAMA BORDER WITH 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINT IN HUNTSVILLE AND 43 AT NASHVILLE. CURRENTLY CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN ALABAMA TO LIKELY REMAIN
SOUTH OF MY CWA...HOWEVER COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPING
IN FAR SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...BOOTHEEL AREA HAS FIRED ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS OUT OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE UP
INTO THE BOOTHEEL AREA...THEN BACK INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S IN THE BOOTHEEL. STORMS CONTINUE TO
CLUSTER WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE LAST HOUR. H-TRIPLE-R
TAKES THIS ACTIVITY DOWN INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND DIMINISHES IT
OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS I WOULD
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO RIDE ALONG FRONTAL SURFACE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KOHX 312316
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
616 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...

00Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. STORMS HAVE HELD OFF TO THE SOUTH...AND LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD CALM DOWN BELOW 5
KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR ALL TERMINALS...AND REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. MID MORNING TOMORROW EXPECT EASTERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS...WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CURRENTLY STORMS JUST SOUTH OF ALABAMA BORDER WORKING IN AN EAST-SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION. SURFACE FRONT BASED ON DEWPOINT FIELD DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE JUST BARELY NORTH OF THE ALABAMA BORDER WITH 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINT IN HUNTSVILLE AND 43 AT NASHVILLE. CURRENTLY CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN ALABAMA TO LIKELY REMAIN
SOUTH OF MY CWA...HOWEVER COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPING
IN FAR SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...BOOTHEEL AREA HAS FIRED ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS OUT OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE UP
INTO THE BOOTHEEL AREA...THEN BACK INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S IN THE BOOTHEEL. STORMS CONTINUE TO
CLUSTER WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE LAST HOUR. H-TRIPLE-R
TAKES THIS ACTIVITY DOWN INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND DIMINISHES IT
OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS I WOULD
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO RIDE ALONG FRONTAL SURFACE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KOHX 312316
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
616 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...

00Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. STORMS HAVE HELD OFF TO THE SOUTH...AND LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD CALM DOWN BELOW 5
KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR ALL TERMINALS...AND REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. MID MORNING TOMORROW EXPECT EASTERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS...WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CURRENTLY STORMS JUST SOUTH OF ALABAMA BORDER WORKING IN AN EAST-SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION. SURFACE FRONT BASED ON DEWPOINT FIELD DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE JUST BARELY NORTH OF THE ALABAMA BORDER WITH 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINT IN HUNTSVILLE AND 43 AT NASHVILLE. CURRENTLY CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN ALABAMA TO LIKELY REMAIN
SOUTH OF MY CWA...HOWEVER COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPING
IN FAR SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...BOOTHEEL AREA HAS FIRED ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS OUT OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE UP
INTO THE BOOTHEEL AREA...THEN BACK INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S IN THE BOOTHEEL. STORMS CONTINUE TO
CLUSTER WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE LAST HOUR. H-TRIPLE-R
TAKES THIS ACTIVITY DOWN INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND DIMINISHES IT
OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS I WOULD
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO RIDE ALONG FRONTAL SURFACE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KOHX 312316
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
616 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...

00Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. STORMS HAVE HELD OFF TO THE SOUTH...AND LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD CALM DOWN BELOW 5
KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR ALL TERMINALS...AND REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. MID MORNING TOMORROW EXPECT EASTERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS...WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CURRENTLY STORMS JUST SOUTH OF ALABAMA BORDER WORKING IN AN EAST-SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION. SURFACE FRONT BASED ON DEWPOINT FIELD DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE JUST BARELY NORTH OF THE ALABAMA BORDER WITH 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINT IN HUNTSVILLE AND 43 AT NASHVILLE. CURRENTLY CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN ALABAMA TO LIKELY REMAIN
SOUTH OF MY CWA...HOWEVER COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPING
IN FAR SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...BOOTHEEL AREA HAS FIRED ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS OUT OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE UP
INTO THE BOOTHEEL AREA...THEN BACK INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S IN THE BOOTHEEL. STORMS CONTINUE TO
CLUSTER WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE LAST HOUR. H-TRIPLE-R
TAKES THIS ACTIVITY DOWN INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND DIMINISHES IT
OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS I WOULD
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO RIDE ALONG FRONTAL SURFACE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KMEG 312236
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
536 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR EAST AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND WEST TENNESSEE THROUGH 10
PM CDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THERE HAS
BEEN A RECENT UPSWING IN CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ONGOING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE WITH LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG...ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0
C/KM...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING THEY SHOULD
INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT THIS EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE LEAD SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS STILL MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. THE AIRMASS IN THESE AREAS REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH
LARGE HAIL A CONTINUED THREAT. INSTABILITY OVER THESE LOCATIONS
SHOULD WANE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IN THESE LOCATIONS ENDING AROUND SUNSET.

IN BETWEEN ACROSS FAR NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION HAS LIFTED NORTH AND STABILIZED THE
AIRMASS WHERE THERE REMAINS NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. NORTHERN
STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATER THIS
EVENING BUT SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF
BETTER DAYTIME CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THOUGH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND MAY BE ADDED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN WATCH
IF NEEDED.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT ALONG WITH HAZARDS. PLAN TO
UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENTERING AR FROM OK WHICH HAS HELPED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRIOR SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC FROM 740MB UP TO
575MB. MINUS 20C LEVELS WERE IMPRESSIVELY LOW AT 19.3KFT. 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DOWNSTREAM SURFACE- BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS AT 21Z...WITH LIMITED CINH.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH MS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE EVENING... BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER
NORTHEAST AR THIS EVENING...AS A MORE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN MO. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME
ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MAY SEE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CAPPING UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THE CAP COULD TAP
INTO SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z/31 NAM SHOWING
3500-4000 J/KG OF SURFACED BASED CAPE OVER THE EASTERN AR AND
NORTHWEST MS DELTA.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR THROUGH WEST TN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OZARKS.
FRONTAL SPEED SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
PREFRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE MAY BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO THE
DELTA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TEMPORARILY
TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS EARLY EVENING
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT MEM/TUP. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT MEM/TUP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 312236
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
536 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR EAST AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND WEST TENNESSEE THROUGH 10
PM CDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THERE HAS
BEEN A RECENT UPSWING IN CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ONGOING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE WITH LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG...ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0
C/KM...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING THEY SHOULD
INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT THIS EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE LEAD SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS STILL MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. THE AIRMASS IN THESE AREAS REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH
LARGE HAIL A CONTINUED THREAT. INSTABILITY OVER THESE LOCATIONS
SHOULD WANE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IN THESE LOCATIONS ENDING AROUND SUNSET.

IN BETWEEN ACROSS FAR NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION HAS LIFTED NORTH AND STABILIZED THE
AIRMASS WHERE THERE REMAINS NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. NORTHERN
STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATER THIS
EVENING BUT SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF
BETTER DAYTIME CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THOUGH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND MAY BE ADDED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN WATCH
IF NEEDED.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT ALONG WITH HAZARDS. PLAN TO
UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENTERING AR FROM OK WHICH HAS HELPED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRIOR SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC FROM 740MB UP TO
575MB. MINUS 20C LEVELS WERE IMPRESSIVELY LOW AT 19.3KFT. 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DOWNSTREAM SURFACE- BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS AT 21Z...WITH LIMITED CINH.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH MS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE EVENING... BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER
NORTHEAST AR THIS EVENING...AS A MORE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN MO. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME
ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MAY SEE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CAPPING UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THE CAP COULD TAP
INTO SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z/31 NAM SHOWING
3500-4000 J/KG OF SURFACED BASED CAPE OVER THE EASTERN AR AND
NORTHWEST MS DELTA.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR THROUGH WEST TN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OZARKS.
FRONTAL SPEED SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
PREFRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE MAY BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO THE
DELTA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TEMPORARILY
TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS EARLY EVENING
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT MEM/TUP. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT MEM/TUP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 312236
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
536 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR EAST AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND WEST TENNESSEE THROUGH 10
PM CDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THERE HAS
BEEN A RECENT UPSWING IN CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ONGOING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE WITH LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG...ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0
C/KM...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING THEY SHOULD
INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT THIS EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE LEAD SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS STILL MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. THE AIRMASS IN THESE AREAS REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH
LARGE HAIL A CONTINUED THREAT. INSTABILITY OVER THESE LOCATIONS
SHOULD WANE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IN THESE LOCATIONS ENDING AROUND SUNSET.

IN BETWEEN ACROSS FAR NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION HAS LIFTED NORTH AND STABILIZED THE
AIRMASS WHERE THERE REMAINS NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. NORTHERN
STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATER THIS
EVENING BUT SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF
BETTER DAYTIME CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THOUGH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND MAY BE ADDED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN WATCH
IF NEEDED.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT ALONG WITH HAZARDS. PLAN TO
UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENTERING AR FROM OK WHICH HAS HELPED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRIOR SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC FROM 740MB UP TO
575MB. MINUS 20C LEVELS WERE IMPRESSIVELY LOW AT 19.3KFT. 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DOWNSTREAM SURFACE- BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS AT 21Z...WITH LIMITED CINH.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH MS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE EVENING... BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER
NORTHEAST AR THIS EVENING...AS A MORE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN MO. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME
ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MAY SEE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CAPPING UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THE CAP COULD TAP
INTO SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z/31 NAM SHOWING
3500-4000 J/KG OF SURFACED BASED CAPE OVER THE EASTERN AR AND
NORTHWEST MS DELTA.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR THROUGH WEST TN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OZARKS.
FRONTAL SPEED SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
PREFRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE MAY BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO THE
DELTA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TEMPORARILY
TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS EARLY EVENING
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT MEM/TUP. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT MEM/TUP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 312236
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
536 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR EAST AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND WEST TENNESSEE THROUGH 10
PM CDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THERE HAS
BEEN A RECENT UPSWING IN CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ONGOING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE WITH LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG...ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0
C/KM...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING THEY SHOULD
INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT THIS EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE LEAD SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS STILL MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. THE AIRMASS IN THESE AREAS REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH
LARGE HAIL A CONTINUED THREAT. INSTABILITY OVER THESE LOCATIONS
SHOULD WANE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IN THESE LOCATIONS ENDING AROUND SUNSET.

IN BETWEEN ACROSS FAR NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION HAS LIFTED NORTH AND STABILIZED THE
AIRMASS WHERE THERE REMAINS NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. NORTHERN
STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATER THIS
EVENING BUT SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF
BETTER DAYTIME CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THOUGH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND MAY BE ADDED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN WATCH
IF NEEDED.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT ALONG WITH HAZARDS. PLAN TO
UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENTERING AR FROM OK WHICH HAS HELPED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRIOR SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC FROM 740MB UP TO
575MB. MINUS 20C LEVELS WERE IMPRESSIVELY LOW AT 19.3KFT. 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DOWNSTREAM SURFACE- BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS AT 21Z...WITH LIMITED CINH.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH MS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE EVENING... BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER
NORTHEAST AR THIS EVENING...AS A MORE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN MO. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME
ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MAY SEE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CAPPING UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THE CAP COULD TAP
INTO SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z/31 NAM SHOWING
3500-4000 J/KG OF SURFACED BASED CAPE OVER THE EASTERN AR AND
NORTHWEST MS DELTA.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR THROUGH WEST TN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OZARKS.
FRONTAL SPEED SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
PREFRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE MAY BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO THE
DELTA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TEMPORARILY
TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS EARLY EVENING
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT MEM/TUP. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT MEM/TUP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 312133
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
433 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CURRENTLY STORMS JUST SOUTH OF ALABAMA BORDER WORKING IN AN EASTSOUTHEAST
DIRECTION. SURFACE FRONT BASED ON DEWPOINT FIELD DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE JUST BARELY NORTH OF THE ALABAMA BORDER WITH 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINT IN HUNTSVILLE AND 43 AT NASHVILLE. CURRENTLY CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN ALABAMA TO LIKELY REMAIN
SOUTH OF MY CWA...HOWEVER COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPING
IN FAR SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...BOOTHEEL AREA HAS FIRED ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS OUT OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE UP
INTO THE BOOTHEEL AREA...THEN BACK INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S IN THE BOOTHEEL. STORMS CONTINUE TO
CLUSTER WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE LAST HOUR. H-TRIPLE-R
TAKES THIS ACTIVITY DOWN INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND DIMINISHES IT
OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS I WOULD
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO RIDE ALONG FRONTAL SURFACE.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 312133
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
433 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CURRENTLY STORMS JUST SOUTH OF ALABAMA BORDER WORKING IN AN EASTSOUTHEAST
DIRECTION. SURFACE FRONT BASED ON DEWPOINT FIELD DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE JUST BARELY NORTH OF THE ALABAMA BORDER WITH 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINT IN HUNTSVILLE AND 43 AT NASHVILLE. CURRENTLY CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN ALABAMA TO LIKELY REMAIN
SOUTH OF MY CWA...HOWEVER COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPING
IN FAR SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...BOOTHEEL AREA HAS FIRED ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS OUT OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE UP
INTO THE BOOTHEEL AREA...THEN BACK INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S IN THE BOOTHEEL. STORMS CONTINUE TO
CLUSTER WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE LAST HOUR. H-TRIPLE-R
TAKES THIS ACTIVITY DOWN INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND DIMINISHES IT
OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS I WOULD
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO RIDE ALONG FRONTAL SURFACE.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 312133
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
433 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CURRENTLY STORMS JUST SOUTH OF ALABAMA BORDER WORKING IN AN EASTSOUTHEAST
DIRECTION. SURFACE FRONT BASED ON DEWPOINT FIELD DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE JUST BARELY NORTH OF THE ALABAMA BORDER WITH 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINT IN HUNTSVILLE AND 43 AT NASHVILLE. CURRENTLY CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN ALABAMA TO LIKELY REMAIN
SOUTH OF MY CWA...HOWEVER COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPING
IN FAR SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...BOOTHEEL AREA HAS FIRED ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS OUT OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE UP
INTO THE BOOTHEEL AREA...THEN BACK INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S IN THE BOOTHEEL. STORMS CONTINUE TO
CLUSTER WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE LAST HOUR. H-TRIPLE-R
TAKES THIS ACTIVITY DOWN INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND DIMINISHES IT
OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS I WOULD
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO RIDE ALONG FRONTAL SURFACE.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 312133
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
433 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CURRENTLY STORMS JUST SOUTH OF ALABAMA BORDER WORKING IN AN EASTSOUTHEAST
DIRECTION. SURFACE FRONT BASED ON DEWPOINT FIELD DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE JUST BARELY NORTH OF THE ALABAMA BORDER WITH 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINT IN HUNTSVILLE AND 43 AT NASHVILLE. CURRENTLY CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN ALABAMA TO LIKELY REMAIN
SOUTH OF MY CWA...HOWEVER COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPING
IN FAR SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...BOOTHEEL AREA HAS FIRED ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS OUT OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE UP
INTO THE BOOTHEEL AREA...THEN BACK INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S IN THE BOOTHEEL. STORMS CONTINUE TO
CLUSTER WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE LAST HOUR. H-TRIPLE-R
TAKES THIS ACTIVITY DOWN INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND DIMINISHES IT
OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS I WOULD
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO RIDE ALONG FRONTAL SURFACE.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KMEG 312054
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
354 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENTERING AR FROM OK WHICH HAS HELPED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRIOR SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC FROM 740MB UP TO
575MB. MINUS 20C LEVELS WERE IMPRESSIVELY LOW AT 19.3KFT. 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DOWNSTREAM SURFACE- BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS AT 21Z...WITH LIMITED CINH.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH MS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE EVENING... BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER
NORTHEAST AR THIS EVENING...AS A MORE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN MO. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME
ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MAY SEE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CAPPING UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THE CAP COULD TAP
INTO SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z/31 NAM SHOWING
3500-4000 J/KG OF SURFACED BASED CAPE OVER THE EASTERN AR AND
NORTHWEST MS DELTA.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR THROUGH WEST TN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OZARKS.
FRONTAL SPEED SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
PREFRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE MAY BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO THE
DELTA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TEMPORARILY
TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS EARLY EVENING
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT MEM/TUP. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT MEM/TUP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 312054
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
354 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENTERING AR FROM OK WHICH HAS HELPED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRIOR SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC FROM 740MB UP TO
575MB. MINUS 20C LEVELS WERE IMPRESSIVELY LOW AT 19.3KFT. 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DOWNSTREAM SURFACE- BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS AT 21Z...WITH LIMITED CINH.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH MS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE EVENING... BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER
NORTHEAST AR THIS EVENING...AS A MORE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN MO. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME
ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MAY SEE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CAPPING UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THE CAP COULD TAP
INTO SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z/31 NAM SHOWING
3500-4000 J/KG OF SURFACED BASED CAPE OVER THE EASTERN AR AND
NORTHWEST MS DELTA.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR THROUGH WEST TN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OZARKS.
FRONTAL SPEED SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
PREFRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE MAY BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO THE
DELTA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TEMPORARILY
TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS EARLY EVENING
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT MEM/TUP. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT MEM/TUP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 311956
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
256 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...A WARM SPRING AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS OVER THE MID
STATE, WITH NASHVILLE ALREADY TOPPING 80 DEGREES. NICE-LOOKING CU
FIELD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SHOWS UP WELL ON SATELLITE PICS AND
DELINEATES THE AREA OF BEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.

MODELS, INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR, KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR THE ALABAMA BORDER, AND WET BULB ZERO
VALUES SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY STORMS
THAT MIGHT POP UP. CAPE VALUES OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE NR 3K
J/KG AND TT`S WILL BE IN THE MID 50S. A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY LEAD
TO A BRIEF FLARE-UP OF CONVECTION OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES,
BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. SPC HAS ACCORDINGLY NUDGED ITS
SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

DEW POINTS FALL PRECIPITOUSLY BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT OVER THE
NORTH AND THIS, COUPLED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A DECENT TEMP DROP IN AREAS NORTH OF I-40. LOWS BY SUNRISE WILL
LIKELY BE AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS, WITH MAYBE EVEN SOME
UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS.

A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERS OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTH ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, FOR THE MOST PART, EXPECT
ANOTHER DRY AND WARM SPRING DAY TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
ALONG WITH AN INCREASING 85H JET, BRINGING AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS ON THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED, MAINLY AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY PUSH TO AROUND 80
DEGS IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-65, WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S
FURTHER EAST.
19

.LONG TERM...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FRIDAY (GFS) OR FRIDAY NIGHT (ECMWF), WITH DRY, COOL
WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL PASS OVER
THE MID STATE ON EASTER SUNDAY, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO START
OFF THE NEW WEEK. ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER
THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY
MONDAY, WITH AN UNSTABLE, MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS SETTLING IN
AT THE SURFACE AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. SO WE CAN EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION FROM MONDAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      46  74  56  78 /  10  05  30  50
CLARKSVILLE    42  73  55  78 /  10  05  30  50
CROSSVILLE     42  67  51  70 /  10  05  20  50
COLUMBIA       48  73  58  78 /  20  10  30  50
LAWRENCEBURG   49  76  58  78 /  30  20  30  50
WAVERLY        45  75  59  78 /  10  05  30  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 311956
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
256 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...A WARM SPRING AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS OVER THE MID
STATE, WITH NASHVILLE ALREADY TOPPING 80 DEGREES. NICE-LOOKING CU
FIELD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SHOWS UP WELL ON SATELLITE PICS AND
DELINEATES THE AREA OF BEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.

MODELS, INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR, KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR THE ALABAMA BORDER, AND WET BULB ZERO
VALUES SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY STORMS
THAT MIGHT POP UP. CAPE VALUES OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE NR 3K
J/KG AND TT`S WILL BE IN THE MID 50S. A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY LEAD
TO A BRIEF FLARE-UP OF CONVECTION OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES,
BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. SPC HAS ACCORDINGLY NUDGED ITS
SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

DEW POINTS FALL PRECIPITOUSLY BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT OVER THE
NORTH AND THIS, COUPLED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A DECENT TEMP DROP IN AREAS NORTH OF I-40. LOWS BY SUNRISE WILL
LIKELY BE AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS, WITH MAYBE EVEN SOME
UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS.

A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERS OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTH ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, FOR THE MOST PART, EXPECT
ANOTHER DRY AND WARM SPRING DAY TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
ALONG WITH AN INCREASING 85H JET, BRINGING AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS ON THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED, MAINLY AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY PUSH TO AROUND 80
DEGS IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-65, WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S
FURTHER EAST.
19

.LONG TERM...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FRIDAY (GFS) OR FRIDAY NIGHT (ECMWF), WITH DRY, COOL
WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL PASS OVER
THE MID STATE ON EASTER SUNDAY, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO START
OFF THE NEW WEEK. ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER
THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY
MONDAY, WITH AN UNSTABLE, MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS SETTLING IN
AT THE SURFACE AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. SO WE CAN EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION FROM MONDAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      46  74  56  78 /  10  05  30  50
CLARKSVILLE    42  73  55  78 /  10  05  30  50
CROSSVILLE     42  67  51  70 /  10  05  20  50
COLUMBIA       48  73  58  78 /  20  10  30  50
LAWRENCEBURG   49  76  58  78 /  30  20  30  50
WAVERLY        45  75  59  78 /  10  05  30  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 311956
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
256 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...A WARM SPRING AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS OVER THE MID
STATE, WITH NASHVILLE ALREADY TOPPING 80 DEGREES. NICE-LOOKING CU
FIELD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SHOWS UP WELL ON SATELLITE PICS AND
DELINEATES THE AREA OF BEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.

MODELS, INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR, KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR THE ALABAMA BORDER, AND WET BULB ZERO
VALUES SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY STORMS
THAT MIGHT POP UP. CAPE VALUES OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE NR 3K
J/KG AND TT`S WILL BE IN THE MID 50S. A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY LEAD
TO A BRIEF FLARE-UP OF CONVECTION OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES,
BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. SPC HAS ACCORDINGLY NUDGED ITS
SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

DEW POINTS FALL PRECIPITOUSLY BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT OVER THE
NORTH AND THIS, COUPLED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A DECENT TEMP DROP IN AREAS NORTH OF I-40. LOWS BY SUNRISE WILL
LIKELY BE AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS, WITH MAYBE EVEN SOME
UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS.

A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERS OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTH ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, FOR THE MOST PART, EXPECT
ANOTHER DRY AND WARM SPRING DAY TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
ALONG WITH AN INCREASING 85H JET, BRINGING AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS ON THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED, MAINLY AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY PUSH TO AROUND 80
DEGS IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-65, WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S
FURTHER EAST.
19

.LONG TERM...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FRIDAY (GFS) OR FRIDAY NIGHT (ECMWF), WITH DRY, COOL
WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL PASS OVER
THE MID STATE ON EASTER SUNDAY, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO START
OFF THE NEW WEEK. ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER
THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY
MONDAY, WITH AN UNSTABLE, MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS SETTLING IN
AT THE SURFACE AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. SO WE CAN EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION FROM MONDAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      46  74  56  78 /  10  05  30  50
CLARKSVILLE    42  73  55  78 /  10  05  30  50
CROSSVILLE     42  67  51  70 /  10  05  20  50
COLUMBIA       48  73  58  78 /  20  10  30  50
LAWRENCEBURG   49  76  58  78 /  30  20  30  50
WAVERLY        45  75  59  78 /  10  05  30  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 311956
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
256 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...A WARM SPRING AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS OVER THE MID
STATE, WITH NASHVILLE ALREADY TOPPING 80 DEGREES. NICE-LOOKING CU
FIELD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SHOWS UP WELL ON SATELLITE PICS AND
DELINEATES THE AREA OF BEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.

MODELS, INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR, KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR THE ALABAMA BORDER, AND WET BULB ZERO
VALUES SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY STORMS
THAT MIGHT POP UP. CAPE VALUES OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE NR 3K
J/KG AND TT`S WILL BE IN THE MID 50S. A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY LEAD
TO A BRIEF FLARE-UP OF CONVECTION OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES,
BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. SPC HAS ACCORDINGLY NUDGED ITS
SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

DEW POINTS FALL PRECIPITOUSLY BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT OVER THE
NORTH AND THIS, COUPLED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A DECENT TEMP DROP IN AREAS NORTH OF I-40. LOWS BY SUNRISE WILL
LIKELY BE AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS, WITH MAYBE EVEN SOME
UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS.

A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERS OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTH ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, FOR THE MOST PART, EXPECT
ANOTHER DRY AND WARM SPRING DAY TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
ALONG WITH AN INCREASING 85H JET, BRINGING AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS ON THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED, MAINLY AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY PUSH TO AROUND 80
DEGS IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-65, WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S
FURTHER EAST.
19

.LONG TERM...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FRIDAY (GFS) OR FRIDAY NIGHT (ECMWF), WITH DRY, COOL
WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL PASS OVER
THE MID STATE ON EASTER SUNDAY, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO START
OFF THE NEW WEEK. ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER
THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY
MONDAY, WITH AN UNSTABLE, MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS SETTLING IN
AT THE SURFACE AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. SO WE CAN EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION FROM MONDAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      46  74  56  78 /  10  05  30  50
CLARKSVILLE    42  73  55  78 /  10  05  30  50
CROSSVILLE     42  67  51  70 /  10  05  20  50
COLUMBIA       48  73  58  78 /  20  10  30  50
LAWRENCEBURG   49  76  58  78 /  30  20  30  50
WAVERLY        45  75  59  78 /  10  05  30  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 311956
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
256 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...A WARM SPRING AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS OVER THE MID
STATE, WITH NASHVILLE ALREADY TOPPING 80 DEGREES. NICE-LOOKING CU
FIELD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SHOWS UP WELL ON SATELLITE PICS AND
DELINEATES THE AREA OF BEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.

MODELS, INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR, KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR THE ALABAMA BORDER, AND WET BULB ZERO
VALUES SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY STORMS
THAT MIGHT POP UP. CAPE VALUES OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE NR 3K
J/KG AND TT`S WILL BE IN THE MID 50S. A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY LEAD
TO A BRIEF FLARE-UP OF CONVECTION OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES,
BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. SPC HAS ACCORDINGLY NUDGED ITS
SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

DEW POINTS FALL PRECIPITOUSLY BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT OVER THE
NORTH AND THIS, COUPLED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A DECENT TEMP DROP IN AREAS NORTH OF I-40. LOWS BY SUNRISE WILL
LIKELY BE AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS, WITH MAYBE EVEN SOME
UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS.

A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERS OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTH ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, FOR THE MOST PART, EXPECT
ANOTHER DRY AND WARM SPRING DAY TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
ALONG WITH AN INCREASING 85H JET, BRINGING AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS ON THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED, MAINLY AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY PUSH TO AROUND 80
DEGS IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-65, WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S
FURTHER EAST.
19

.LONG TERM...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FRIDAY (GFS) OR FRIDAY NIGHT (ECMWF), WITH DRY, COOL
WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL PASS OVER
THE MID STATE ON EASTER SUNDAY, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO START
OFF THE NEW WEEK. ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER
THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY
MONDAY, WITH AN UNSTABLE, MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS SETTLING IN
AT THE SURFACE AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. SO WE CAN EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION FROM MONDAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      46  74  56  78 /  10  05  30  50
CLARKSVILLE    42  73  55  78 /  10  05  30  50
CROSSVILLE     42  67  51  70 /  10  05  20  50
COLUMBIA       48  73  58  78 /  20  10  30  50
LAWRENCEBURG   49  76  58  78 /  30  20  30  50
WAVERLY        45  75  59  78 /  10  05  30  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 311956
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
256 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...A WARM SPRING AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS OVER THE MID
STATE, WITH NASHVILLE ALREADY TOPPING 80 DEGREES. NICE-LOOKING CU
FIELD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SHOWS UP WELL ON SATELLITE PICS AND
DELINEATES THE AREA OF BEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.

MODELS, INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR, KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR THE ALABAMA BORDER, AND WET BULB ZERO
VALUES SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY STORMS
THAT MIGHT POP UP. CAPE VALUES OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE NR 3K
J/KG AND TT`S WILL BE IN THE MID 50S. A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY LEAD
TO A BRIEF FLARE-UP OF CONVECTION OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES,
BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. SPC HAS ACCORDINGLY NUDGED ITS
SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

DEW POINTS FALL PRECIPITOUSLY BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT OVER THE
NORTH AND THIS, COUPLED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A DECENT TEMP DROP IN AREAS NORTH OF I-40. LOWS BY SUNRISE WILL
LIKELY BE AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS, WITH MAYBE EVEN SOME
UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS.

A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERS OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTH ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, FOR THE MOST PART, EXPECT
ANOTHER DRY AND WARM SPRING DAY TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
ALONG WITH AN INCREASING 85H JET, BRINGING AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS ON THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED, MAINLY AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY PUSH TO AROUND 80
DEGS IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-65, WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S
FURTHER EAST.
19

.LONG TERM...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FRIDAY (GFS) OR FRIDAY NIGHT (ECMWF), WITH DRY, COOL
WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL PASS OVER
THE MID STATE ON EASTER SUNDAY, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO START
OFF THE NEW WEEK. ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER
THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY
MONDAY, WITH AN UNSTABLE, MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS SETTLING IN
AT THE SURFACE AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. SO WE CAN EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION FROM MONDAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      46  74  56  78 /  10  05  30  50
CLARKSVILLE    42  73  55  78 /  10  05  30  50
CROSSVILLE     42  67  51  70 /  10  05  20  50
COLUMBIA       48  73  58  78 /  20  10  30  50
LAWRENCEBURG   49  76  58  78 /  30  20  30  50
WAVERLY        45  75  59  78 /  10  05  30  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KMRX 311915
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...ATMOSPHERE IS TRYING TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY OF ALABAMA WITH SOME LIFT AND JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT FOR
BUOYANCY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM
IN THAT LAYER AROUND 750 MB FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TENNESSEE. SOME UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED SO WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM GOING INTO THE EVENING AS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHORT WAVE CONTINUES EAST. THERE SHOULDN`T BE
MUCH WEATHER DURING THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH DRY AND
STABLE AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND THE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER BANNER DAY COMPLETE WITH NEARLY
FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY LAYER FLOW AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DIURNAL HEATING
SUFFICIENT FOR LOW END INSTABILITY AND AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS. LOW
AMPLIFIES JET SEGMENT AT BOTTOM OF LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
THROUGH LOWER OH VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE GOOD
LIFT AND MODERATE LAYER SHEAR AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING. ONGOING ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS A
GOOD BET WITH THESE STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER AIR MASS
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. GRADUAL
WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO SLOWLY
INCREASE INTO THE MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             51  75  52  74 /  30   0  30  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  45  71  48  72 /  20   0  20  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       46  71  48  72 /  10   0  20  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              39  68  40  73 /  10   0  10  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 311915
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...ATMOSPHERE IS TRYING TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY OF ALABAMA WITH SOME LIFT AND JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT FOR
BUOYANCY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM
IN THAT LAYER AROUND 750 MB FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TENNESSEE. SOME UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED SO WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM GOING INTO THE EVENING AS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHORT WAVE CONTINUES EAST. THERE SHOULDN`T BE
MUCH WEATHER DURING THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH DRY AND
STABLE AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND THE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER BANNER DAY COMPLETE WITH NEARLY
FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY LAYER FLOW AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DIURNAL HEATING
SUFFICIENT FOR LOW END INSTABILITY AND AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS. LOW
AMPLIFIES JET SEGMENT AT BOTTOM OF LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
THROUGH LOWER OH VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE GOOD
LIFT AND MODERATE LAYER SHEAR AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING. ONGOING ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS A
GOOD BET WITH THESE STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER AIR MASS
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. GRADUAL
WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO SLOWLY
INCREASE INTO THE MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             51  75  52  74 /  30   0  30  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  45  71  48  72 /  20   0  20  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       46  71  48  72 /  10   0  20  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              39  68  40  73 /  10   0  10  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 311915
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...ATMOSPHERE IS TRYING TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY OF ALABAMA WITH SOME LIFT AND JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT FOR
BUOYANCY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM
IN THAT LAYER AROUND 750 MB FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TENNESSEE. SOME UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED SO WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM GOING INTO THE EVENING AS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHORT WAVE CONTINUES EAST. THERE SHOULDN`T BE
MUCH WEATHER DURING THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH DRY AND
STABLE AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND THE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER BANNER DAY COMPLETE WITH NEARLY
FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY LAYER FLOW AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DIURNAL HEATING
SUFFICIENT FOR LOW END INSTABILITY AND AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS. LOW
AMPLIFIES JET SEGMENT AT BOTTOM OF LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
THROUGH LOWER OH VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE GOOD
LIFT AND MODERATE LAYER SHEAR AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING. ONGOING ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS A
GOOD BET WITH THESE STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER AIR MASS
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. GRADUAL
WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO SLOWLY
INCREASE INTO THE MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             51  75  52  74 /  30   0  30  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  45  71  48  72 /  20   0  20  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       46  71  48  72 /  10   0  20  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              39  68  40  73 /  10   0  10  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 311915
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...ATMOSPHERE IS TRYING TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY OF ALABAMA WITH SOME LIFT AND JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT FOR
BUOYANCY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM
IN THAT LAYER AROUND 750 MB FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TENNESSEE. SOME UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED SO WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM GOING INTO THE EVENING AS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHORT WAVE CONTINUES EAST. THERE SHOULDN`T BE
MUCH WEATHER DURING THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH DRY AND
STABLE AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND THE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER BANNER DAY COMPLETE WITH NEARLY
FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY LAYER FLOW AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DIURNAL HEATING
SUFFICIENT FOR LOW END INSTABILITY AND AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS. LOW
AMPLIFIES JET SEGMENT AT BOTTOM OF LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
THROUGH LOWER OH VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE GOOD
LIFT AND MODERATE LAYER SHEAR AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING. ONGOING ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS A
GOOD BET WITH THESE STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER AIR MASS
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. GRADUAL
WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO SLOWLY
INCREASE INTO THE MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             51  75  52  74 /  30   0  30  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  45  71  48  72 /  20   0  20  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       46  71  48  72 /  10   0  20  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              39  68  40  73 /  10   0  10  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 311915
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...ATMOSPHERE IS TRYING TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY OF ALABAMA WITH SOME LIFT AND JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT FOR
BUOYANCY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM
IN THAT LAYER AROUND 750 MB FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TENNESSEE. SOME UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED SO WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM GOING INTO THE EVENING AS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHORT WAVE CONTINUES EAST. THERE SHOULDN`T BE
MUCH WEATHER DURING THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH DRY AND
STABLE AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND THE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER BANNER DAY COMPLETE WITH NEARLY
FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY LAYER FLOW AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DIURNAL HEATING
SUFFICIENT FOR LOW END INSTABILITY AND AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS. LOW
AMPLIFIES JET SEGMENT AT BOTTOM OF LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
THROUGH LOWER OH VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE GOOD
LIFT AND MODERATE LAYER SHEAR AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING. ONGOING ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS A
GOOD BET WITH THESE STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER AIR MASS
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. GRADUAL
WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO SLOWLY
INCREASE INTO THE MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             51  75  52  74 /  30   0  30  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  45  71  48  72 /  20   0  20  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       46  71  48  72 /  10   0  20  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              39  68  40  73 /  10   0  10  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 311915
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...ATMOSPHERE IS TRYING TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY OF ALABAMA WITH SOME LIFT AND JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT FOR
BUOYANCY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM
IN THAT LAYER AROUND 750 MB FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TENNESSEE. SOME UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED SO WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM GOING INTO THE EVENING AS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHORT WAVE CONTINUES EAST. THERE SHOULDN`T BE
MUCH WEATHER DURING THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH DRY AND
STABLE AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND THE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER BANNER DAY COMPLETE WITH NEARLY
FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY LAYER FLOW AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DIURNAL HEATING
SUFFICIENT FOR LOW END INSTABILITY AND AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS. LOW
AMPLIFIES JET SEGMENT AT BOTTOM OF LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
THROUGH LOWER OH VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE GOOD
LIFT AND MODERATE LAYER SHEAR AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING. ONGOING ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS A
GOOD BET WITH THESE STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER AIR MASS
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. GRADUAL
WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO SLOWLY
INCREASE INTO THE MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             51  75  52  74 /  30   0  30  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  45  71  48  72 /  20   0  20  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       46  71  48  72 /  10   0  20  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              39  68  40  73 /  10   0  10  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 311738
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
138 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...A GOOD DAY FOR FLIGHT WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AND SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS FARTHER SOUTH. A COOL
FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE GREAT VALLEY AROUND 05-09Z. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS A BIT ON THE DRY SIDE ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
IN PLACE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE BORDER AND FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF
ALABAMA WHERE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY
TO OCCUR. ONE OR TWO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
DRIFT EAST ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AND THIS COULD IMPACT CHA. HOWEVER...THE
PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH THAT VICINITY THUNDER WAS APPLIED RATHER
THAN A PREVAILING WEATHER GROUP HERE. DRIER AIR BUILDS IN TONIGHT
LEAVING VFR FLIGHT IN PLACE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 311738
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
138 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...A GOOD DAY FOR FLIGHT WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AND SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS FARTHER SOUTH. A COOL
FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE GREAT VALLEY AROUND 05-09Z. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS A BIT ON THE DRY SIDE ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
IN PLACE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE BORDER AND FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF
ALABAMA WHERE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY
TO OCCUR. ONE OR TWO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
DRIFT EAST ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AND THIS COULD IMPACT CHA. HOWEVER...THE
PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH THAT VICINITY THUNDER WAS APPLIED RATHER
THAN A PREVAILING WEATHER GROUP HERE. DRIER AIR BUILDS IN TONIGHT
LEAVING VFR FLIGHT IN PLACE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 311738
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
138 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...A GOOD DAY FOR FLIGHT WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AND SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS FARTHER SOUTH. A COOL
FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE GREAT VALLEY AROUND 05-09Z. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS A BIT ON THE DRY SIDE ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
IN PLACE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE BORDER AND FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF
ALABAMA WHERE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY
TO OCCUR. ONE OR TWO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
DRIFT EAST ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AND THIS COULD IMPACT CHA. HOWEVER...THE
PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH THAT VICINITY THUNDER WAS APPLIED RATHER
THAN A PREVAILING WEATHER GROUP HERE. DRIER AIR BUILDS IN TONIGHT
LEAVING VFR FLIGHT IN PLACE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 311738
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
138 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...A GOOD DAY FOR FLIGHT WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AND SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS FARTHER SOUTH. A COOL
FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE GREAT VALLEY AROUND 05-09Z. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS A BIT ON THE DRY SIDE ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
IN PLACE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE BORDER AND FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF
ALABAMA WHERE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY
TO OCCUR. ONE OR TWO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
DRIFT EAST ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AND THIS COULD IMPACT CHA. HOWEVER...THE
PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH THAT VICINITY THUNDER WAS APPLIED RATHER
THAN A PREVAILING WEATHER GROUP HERE. DRIER AIR BUILDS IN TONIGHT
LEAVING VFR FLIGHT IN PLACE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 311738
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
138 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...A GOOD DAY FOR FLIGHT WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AND SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS FARTHER SOUTH. A COOL
FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE GREAT VALLEY AROUND 05-09Z. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS A BIT ON THE DRY SIDE ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
IN PLACE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE BORDER AND FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF
ALABAMA WHERE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY
TO OCCUR. ONE OR TWO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
DRIFT EAST ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AND THIS COULD IMPACT CHA. HOWEVER...THE
PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH THAT VICINITY THUNDER WAS APPLIED RATHER
THAN A PREVAILING WEATHER GROUP HERE. DRIER AIR BUILDS IN TONIGHT
LEAVING VFR FLIGHT IN PLACE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 311738
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
138 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...A GOOD DAY FOR FLIGHT WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AND SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS FARTHER SOUTH. A COOL
FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE GREAT VALLEY AROUND 05-09Z. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS A BIT ON THE DRY SIDE ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
IN PLACE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE BORDER AND FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF
ALABAMA WHERE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY
TO OCCUR. ONE OR TWO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
DRIFT EAST ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AND THIS COULD IMPACT CHA. HOWEVER...THE
PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH THAT VICINITY THUNDER WAS APPLIED RATHER
THAN A PREVAILING WEATHER GROUP HERE. DRIER AIR BUILDS IN TONIGHT
LEAVING VFR FLIGHT IN PLACE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 311738
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
138 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...A GOOD DAY FOR FLIGHT WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AND SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS FARTHER SOUTH. A COOL
FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE GREAT VALLEY AROUND 05-09Z. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS A BIT ON THE DRY SIDE ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
IN PLACE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE BORDER AND FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF
ALABAMA WHERE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY
TO OCCUR. ONE OR TWO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
DRIFT EAST ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AND THIS COULD IMPACT CHA. HOWEVER...THE
PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH THAT VICINITY THUNDER WAS APPLIED RATHER
THAN A PREVAILING WEATHER GROUP HERE. DRIER AIR BUILDS IN TONIGHT
LEAVING VFR FLIGHT IN PLACE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 311738
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
138 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...A GOOD DAY FOR FLIGHT WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AND SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS FARTHER SOUTH. A COOL
FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE GREAT VALLEY AROUND 05-09Z. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS A BIT ON THE DRY SIDE ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
IN PLACE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE BORDER AND FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF
ALABAMA WHERE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY
TO OCCUR. ONE OR TWO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
DRIFT EAST ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AND THIS COULD IMPACT CHA. HOWEVER...THE
PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH THAT VICINITY THUNDER WAS APPLIED RATHER
THAN A PREVAILING WEATHER GROUP HERE. DRIER AIR BUILDS IN TONIGHT
LEAVING VFR FLIGHT IN PLACE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOHX 311734
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1234 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE MID
STATE, PRIMARILY IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-40. DUE TO THE LOW POP`S,
WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF THE TAF`S. LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISHING BY EVENING, WITH VFR WX THE NEXT 24
HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST NW OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH HOURLY TEMPS RUNNING CONSISTENTLY ABOVE FORECAST
VALUES, SO AM UPDATING THE FORECAST AND ADDING A COUPLE OF DEGREES
TO HIGH TEMPS. A FEW CELLS ARE POPPING UP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER, SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT POP
FORECAST AS IS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING TO WSW
10-15KT TODAY...THEN BECMG N WITH FROPA THIS EVENING. FRONT LOOKS
DRY...POPS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU THU NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THRU THU
NIGHT...TEMPS.

AS IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...A SHIFT THRU WED AFTERNOON
OF BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MORE TO OUR SW...WITH AN OVERALL DRIER
SOLUTION MODEL SOLUTION. PER LATEST RECOMMENDATIONS OF WPC SHORT TERM
RANGE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION...LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE GFS/EURO
SOLUTION. DIFFERENCES SUBTLE OVERALL IN THE FIRST PLACE. LET`S TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISO TSTMS MAINLY S OF I-40 TODAY...AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY CHANCE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. BEST CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...WHERE BEST MOISTURE
/INSTABILITY/AND DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES MOST PERSISTENT AS STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA MOVES NORTHWARD AND
BECOMES DIFFUSE JUST S OF THE TN/AL BORDER AND A COLD FRONT DROPS FROM
THE NRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TO NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER. AS STATED
BY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S DISCUSSION BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST S OF THE MID STATE WITH LATEST SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
MOVING THE MARGINAL AREA NOW JUST S OF THE MID STATE TOO. WILL LEAN
ALSO WITH A COMPROMISE ON HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN GFS/EURO
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 5 TO AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES...FROM AROUND 70 PLATEAU TO UPPER 70S N PORTIONS OF TN
RIVER VALLEY REGION NEAR THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION.

WILL KEEP MAINLY ISO SHWRS/TSTMS LIMITED TO LOCATIONS S OF I-40 THIS
EVENING ALSO...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH BY WED AFTERNOON TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF ANY CONVECTION TO LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TN/AL BORDER...WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS W TO E WED
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN AND A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S PLATEAU TO AROUND 60 TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION. MOST OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE MID STATE WILL BE IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TSTMS ON THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE AFTERNOON
HOURS PROGRESS...AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MID STATE
WITH ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT NOW WELL NE OF THE MID STATE AS
BROAD WAA SCENARIO BEGINS TO BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS USHERED IN FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION...AS HIGHS WILL
BE SPANNING THE 70S ACROSS THE MID STATE...IN SOME INSTANCES AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY
SPANNING THE 60S ON THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING INTO
THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES ALOFT POSSIBLE...AS
SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z FRI.

31

LONG TERM(FRI THRU MON)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE MID STATE. A WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS...ENHANCING THE
POPS...AND BRINGING SOME STRONG...AND PERHAPS SEVERE...STORMS ON
FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO THE CONVECTION BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE MID STATE. SOME AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S...AND A FEW PATCHES
OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST WITH CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW WE DO NOT HAVE FREEZING TEMPS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT IF CONDITIONS ARE JUST RIGHT...SOME OF THE USUAL
COLDER...SHELTERED AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL BRING QUICK WARMING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...THE COOL AND DRY WEEKEND AIR MASS WILL
GET PUSHED OUT QUICKLY. BY MONDAY...MILDER...MORE SPRING-LIKE AIR
WILL RETURN...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 311734
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1234 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE MID
STATE, PRIMARILY IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-40. DUE TO THE LOW POP`S,
WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF THE TAF`S. LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISHING BY EVENING, WITH VFR WX THE NEXT 24
HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST NW OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH HOURLY TEMPS RUNNING CONSISTENTLY ABOVE FORECAST
VALUES, SO AM UPDATING THE FORECAST AND ADDING A COUPLE OF DEGREES
TO HIGH TEMPS. A FEW CELLS ARE POPPING UP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER, SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT POP
FORECAST AS IS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING TO WSW
10-15KT TODAY...THEN BECMG N WITH FROPA THIS EVENING. FRONT LOOKS
DRY...POPS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU THU NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THRU THU
NIGHT...TEMPS.

AS IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...A SHIFT THRU WED AFTERNOON
OF BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MORE TO OUR SW...WITH AN OVERALL DRIER
SOLUTION MODEL SOLUTION. PER LATEST RECOMMENDATIONS OF WPC SHORT TERM
RANGE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION...LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE GFS/EURO
SOLUTION. DIFFERENCES SUBTLE OVERALL IN THE FIRST PLACE. LET`S TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISO TSTMS MAINLY S OF I-40 TODAY...AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY CHANCE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. BEST CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...WHERE BEST MOISTURE
/INSTABILITY/AND DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES MOST PERSISTENT AS STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA MOVES NORTHWARD AND
BECOMES DIFFUSE JUST S OF THE TN/AL BORDER AND A COLD FRONT DROPS FROM
THE NRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TO NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER. AS STATED
BY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S DISCUSSION BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST S OF THE MID STATE WITH LATEST SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
MOVING THE MARGINAL AREA NOW JUST S OF THE MID STATE TOO. WILL LEAN
ALSO WITH A COMPROMISE ON HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN GFS/EURO
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 5 TO AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES...FROM AROUND 70 PLATEAU TO UPPER 70S N PORTIONS OF TN
RIVER VALLEY REGION NEAR THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION.

WILL KEEP MAINLY ISO SHWRS/TSTMS LIMITED TO LOCATIONS S OF I-40 THIS
EVENING ALSO...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH BY WED AFTERNOON TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF ANY CONVECTION TO LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TN/AL BORDER...WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS W TO E WED
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN AND A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S PLATEAU TO AROUND 60 TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION. MOST OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE MID STATE WILL BE IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TSTMS ON THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE AFTERNOON
HOURS PROGRESS...AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MID STATE
WITH ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT NOW WELL NE OF THE MID STATE AS
BROAD WAA SCENARIO BEGINS TO BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS USHERED IN FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION...AS HIGHS WILL
BE SPANNING THE 70S ACROSS THE MID STATE...IN SOME INSTANCES AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY
SPANNING THE 60S ON THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING INTO
THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES ALOFT POSSIBLE...AS
SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z FRI.

31

LONG TERM(FRI THRU MON)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE MID STATE. A WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS...ENHANCING THE
POPS...AND BRINGING SOME STRONG...AND PERHAPS SEVERE...STORMS ON
FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO THE CONVECTION BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE MID STATE. SOME AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S...AND A FEW PATCHES
OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST WITH CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW WE DO NOT HAVE FREEZING TEMPS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT IF CONDITIONS ARE JUST RIGHT...SOME OF THE USUAL
COLDER...SHELTERED AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL BRING QUICK WARMING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...THE COOL AND DRY WEEKEND AIR MASS WILL
GET PUSHED OUT QUICKLY. BY MONDAY...MILDER...MORE SPRING-LIKE AIR
WILL RETURN...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 311734
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1234 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE MID
STATE, PRIMARILY IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-40. DUE TO THE LOW POP`S,
WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF THE TAF`S. LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISHING BY EVENING, WITH VFR WX THE NEXT 24
HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST NW OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH HOURLY TEMPS RUNNING CONSISTENTLY ABOVE FORECAST
VALUES, SO AM UPDATING THE FORECAST AND ADDING A COUPLE OF DEGREES
TO HIGH TEMPS. A FEW CELLS ARE POPPING UP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER, SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT POP
FORECAST AS IS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING TO WSW
10-15KT TODAY...THEN BECMG N WITH FROPA THIS EVENING. FRONT LOOKS
DRY...POPS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU THU NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THRU THU
NIGHT...TEMPS.

AS IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...A SHIFT THRU WED AFTERNOON
OF BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MORE TO OUR SW...WITH AN OVERALL DRIER
SOLUTION MODEL SOLUTION. PER LATEST RECOMMENDATIONS OF WPC SHORT TERM
RANGE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION...LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE GFS/EURO
SOLUTION. DIFFERENCES SUBTLE OVERALL IN THE FIRST PLACE. LET`S TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISO TSTMS MAINLY S OF I-40 TODAY...AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY CHANCE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. BEST CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...WHERE BEST MOISTURE
/INSTABILITY/AND DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES MOST PERSISTENT AS STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA MOVES NORTHWARD AND
BECOMES DIFFUSE JUST S OF THE TN/AL BORDER AND A COLD FRONT DROPS FROM
THE NRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TO NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER. AS STATED
BY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S DISCUSSION BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST S OF THE MID STATE WITH LATEST SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
MOVING THE MARGINAL AREA NOW JUST S OF THE MID STATE TOO. WILL LEAN
ALSO WITH A COMPROMISE ON HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN GFS/EURO
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 5 TO AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES...FROM AROUND 70 PLATEAU TO UPPER 70S N PORTIONS OF TN
RIVER VALLEY REGION NEAR THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION.

WILL KEEP MAINLY ISO SHWRS/TSTMS LIMITED TO LOCATIONS S OF I-40 THIS
EVENING ALSO...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH BY WED AFTERNOON TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF ANY CONVECTION TO LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TN/AL BORDER...WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS W TO E WED
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN AND A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S PLATEAU TO AROUND 60 TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION. MOST OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE MID STATE WILL BE IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TSTMS ON THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE AFTERNOON
HOURS PROGRESS...AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MID STATE
WITH ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT NOW WELL NE OF THE MID STATE AS
BROAD WAA SCENARIO BEGINS TO BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS USHERED IN FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION...AS HIGHS WILL
BE SPANNING THE 70S ACROSS THE MID STATE...IN SOME INSTANCES AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY
SPANNING THE 60S ON THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING INTO
THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES ALOFT POSSIBLE...AS
SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z FRI.

31

LONG TERM(FRI THRU MON)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE MID STATE. A WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS...ENHANCING THE
POPS...AND BRINGING SOME STRONG...AND PERHAPS SEVERE...STORMS ON
FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO THE CONVECTION BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE MID STATE. SOME AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S...AND A FEW PATCHES
OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST WITH CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW WE DO NOT HAVE FREEZING TEMPS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT IF CONDITIONS ARE JUST RIGHT...SOME OF THE USUAL
COLDER...SHELTERED AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL BRING QUICK WARMING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...THE COOL AND DRY WEEKEND AIR MASS WILL
GET PUSHED OUT QUICKLY. BY MONDAY...MILDER...MORE SPRING-LIKE AIR
WILL RETURN...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 311734
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1234 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE MID
STATE, PRIMARILY IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-40. DUE TO THE LOW POP`S,
WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF THE TAF`S. LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISHING BY EVENING, WITH VFR WX THE NEXT 24
HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST NW OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH HOURLY TEMPS RUNNING CONSISTENTLY ABOVE FORECAST
VALUES, SO AM UPDATING THE FORECAST AND ADDING A COUPLE OF DEGREES
TO HIGH TEMPS. A FEW CELLS ARE POPPING UP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER, SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT POP
FORECAST AS IS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING TO WSW
10-15KT TODAY...THEN BECMG N WITH FROPA THIS EVENING. FRONT LOOKS
DRY...POPS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU THU NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THRU THU
NIGHT...TEMPS.

AS IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...A SHIFT THRU WED AFTERNOON
OF BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MORE TO OUR SW...WITH AN OVERALL DRIER
SOLUTION MODEL SOLUTION. PER LATEST RECOMMENDATIONS OF WPC SHORT TERM
RANGE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION...LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE GFS/EURO
SOLUTION. DIFFERENCES SUBTLE OVERALL IN THE FIRST PLACE. LET`S TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISO TSTMS MAINLY S OF I-40 TODAY...AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY CHANCE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. BEST CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...WHERE BEST MOISTURE
/INSTABILITY/AND DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES MOST PERSISTENT AS STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA MOVES NORTHWARD AND
BECOMES DIFFUSE JUST S OF THE TN/AL BORDER AND A COLD FRONT DROPS FROM
THE NRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TO NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER. AS STATED
BY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S DISCUSSION BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST S OF THE MID STATE WITH LATEST SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
MOVING THE MARGINAL AREA NOW JUST S OF THE MID STATE TOO. WILL LEAN
ALSO WITH A COMPROMISE ON HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN GFS/EURO
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 5 TO AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES...FROM AROUND 70 PLATEAU TO UPPER 70S N PORTIONS OF TN
RIVER VALLEY REGION NEAR THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION.

WILL KEEP MAINLY ISO SHWRS/TSTMS LIMITED TO LOCATIONS S OF I-40 THIS
EVENING ALSO...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH BY WED AFTERNOON TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF ANY CONVECTION TO LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TN/AL BORDER...WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS W TO E WED
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN AND A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S PLATEAU TO AROUND 60 TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION. MOST OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE MID STATE WILL BE IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TSTMS ON THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE AFTERNOON
HOURS PROGRESS...AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MID STATE
WITH ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT NOW WELL NE OF THE MID STATE AS
BROAD WAA SCENARIO BEGINS TO BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS USHERED IN FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION...AS HIGHS WILL
BE SPANNING THE 70S ACROSS THE MID STATE...IN SOME INSTANCES AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY
SPANNING THE 60S ON THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING INTO
THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES ALOFT POSSIBLE...AS
SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z FRI.

31

LONG TERM(FRI THRU MON)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE MID STATE. A WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS...ENHANCING THE
POPS...AND BRINGING SOME STRONG...AND PERHAPS SEVERE...STORMS ON
FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO THE CONVECTION BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE MID STATE. SOME AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S...AND A FEW PATCHES
OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST WITH CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW WE DO NOT HAVE FREEZING TEMPS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT IF CONDITIONS ARE JUST RIGHT...SOME OF THE USUAL
COLDER...SHELTERED AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL BRING QUICK WARMING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...THE COOL AND DRY WEEKEND AIR MASS WILL
GET PUSHED OUT QUICKLY. BY MONDAY...MILDER...MORE SPRING-LIKE AIR
WILL RETURN...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 311734
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1234 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE MID
STATE, PRIMARILY IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-40. DUE TO THE LOW POP`S,
WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF THE TAF`S. LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISHING BY EVENING, WITH VFR WX THE NEXT 24
HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST NW OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH HOURLY TEMPS RUNNING CONSISTENTLY ABOVE FORECAST
VALUES, SO AM UPDATING THE FORECAST AND ADDING A COUPLE OF DEGREES
TO HIGH TEMPS. A FEW CELLS ARE POPPING UP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER, SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT POP
FORECAST AS IS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING TO WSW
10-15KT TODAY...THEN BECMG N WITH FROPA THIS EVENING. FRONT LOOKS
DRY...POPS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU THU NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THRU THU
NIGHT...TEMPS.

AS IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...A SHIFT THRU WED AFTERNOON
OF BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MORE TO OUR SW...WITH AN OVERALL DRIER
SOLUTION MODEL SOLUTION. PER LATEST RECOMMENDATIONS OF WPC SHORT TERM
RANGE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION...LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE GFS/EURO
SOLUTION. DIFFERENCES SUBTLE OVERALL IN THE FIRST PLACE. LET`S TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISO TSTMS MAINLY S OF I-40 TODAY...AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY CHANCE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. BEST CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...WHERE BEST MOISTURE
/INSTABILITY/AND DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES MOST PERSISTENT AS STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA MOVES NORTHWARD AND
BECOMES DIFFUSE JUST S OF THE TN/AL BORDER AND A COLD FRONT DROPS FROM
THE NRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TO NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER. AS STATED
BY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S DISCUSSION BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST S OF THE MID STATE WITH LATEST SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
MOVING THE MARGINAL AREA NOW JUST S OF THE MID STATE TOO. WILL LEAN
ALSO WITH A COMPROMISE ON HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN GFS/EURO
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 5 TO AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES...FROM AROUND 70 PLATEAU TO UPPER 70S N PORTIONS OF TN
RIVER VALLEY REGION NEAR THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION.

WILL KEEP MAINLY ISO SHWRS/TSTMS LIMITED TO LOCATIONS S OF I-40 THIS
EVENING ALSO...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH BY WED AFTERNOON TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF ANY CONVECTION TO LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TN/AL BORDER...WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS W TO E WED
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN AND A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S PLATEAU TO AROUND 60 TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION. MOST OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE MID STATE WILL BE IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TSTMS ON THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE AFTERNOON
HOURS PROGRESS...AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MID STATE
WITH ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT NOW WELL NE OF THE MID STATE AS
BROAD WAA SCENARIO BEGINS TO BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS USHERED IN FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION...AS HIGHS WILL
BE SPANNING THE 70S ACROSS THE MID STATE...IN SOME INSTANCES AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY
SPANNING THE 60S ON THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING INTO
THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES ALOFT POSSIBLE...AS
SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z FRI.

31

LONG TERM(FRI THRU MON)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE MID STATE. A WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS...ENHANCING THE
POPS...AND BRINGING SOME STRONG...AND PERHAPS SEVERE...STORMS ON
FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO THE CONVECTION BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE MID STATE. SOME AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S...AND A FEW PATCHES
OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST WITH CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW WE DO NOT HAVE FREEZING TEMPS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT IF CONDITIONS ARE JUST RIGHT...SOME OF THE USUAL
COLDER...SHELTERED AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL BRING QUICK WARMING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...THE COOL AND DRY WEEKEND AIR MASS WILL
GET PUSHED OUT QUICKLY. BY MONDAY...MILDER...MORE SPRING-LIKE AIR
WILL RETURN...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 311734
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1234 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE MID
STATE, PRIMARILY IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-40. DUE TO THE LOW POP`S,
WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF THE TAF`S. LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISHING BY EVENING, WITH VFR WX THE NEXT 24
HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST NW OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH HOURLY TEMPS RUNNING CONSISTENTLY ABOVE FORECAST
VALUES, SO AM UPDATING THE FORECAST AND ADDING A COUPLE OF DEGREES
TO HIGH TEMPS. A FEW CELLS ARE POPPING UP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER, SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT POP
FORECAST AS IS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING TO WSW
10-15KT TODAY...THEN BECMG N WITH FROPA THIS EVENING. FRONT LOOKS
DRY...POPS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU THU NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THRU THU
NIGHT...TEMPS.

AS IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...A SHIFT THRU WED AFTERNOON
OF BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MORE TO OUR SW...WITH AN OVERALL DRIER
SOLUTION MODEL SOLUTION. PER LATEST RECOMMENDATIONS OF WPC SHORT TERM
RANGE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION...LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE GFS/EURO
SOLUTION. DIFFERENCES SUBTLE OVERALL IN THE FIRST PLACE. LET`S TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISO TSTMS MAINLY S OF I-40 TODAY...AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY CHANCE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. BEST CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...WHERE BEST MOISTURE
/INSTABILITY/AND DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES MOST PERSISTENT AS STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA MOVES NORTHWARD AND
BECOMES DIFFUSE JUST S OF THE TN/AL BORDER AND A COLD FRONT DROPS FROM
THE NRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TO NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER. AS STATED
BY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S DISCUSSION BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST S OF THE MID STATE WITH LATEST SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
MOVING THE MARGINAL AREA NOW JUST S OF THE MID STATE TOO. WILL LEAN
ALSO WITH A COMPROMISE ON HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN GFS/EURO
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 5 TO AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES...FROM AROUND 70 PLATEAU TO UPPER 70S N PORTIONS OF TN
RIVER VALLEY REGION NEAR THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION.

WILL KEEP MAINLY ISO SHWRS/TSTMS LIMITED TO LOCATIONS S OF I-40 THIS
EVENING ALSO...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH BY WED AFTERNOON TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF ANY CONVECTION TO LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TN/AL BORDER...WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS W TO E WED
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN AND A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S PLATEAU TO AROUND 60 TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION. MOST OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE MID STATE WILL BE IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TSTMS ON THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE AFTERNOON
HOURS PROGRESS...AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MID STATE
WITH ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT NOW WELL NE OF THE MID STATE AS
BROAD WAA SCENARIO BEGINS TO BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS USHERED IN FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION...AS HIGHS WILL
BE SPANNING THE 70S ACROSS THE MID STATE...IN SOME INSTANCES AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY
SPANNING THE 60S ON THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING INTO
THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES ALOFT POSSIBLE...AS
SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z FRI.

31

LONG TERM(FRI THRU MON)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE MID STATE. A WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS...ENHANCING THE
POPS...AND BRINGING SOME STRONG...AND PERHAPS SEVERE...STORMS ON
FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO THE CONVECTION BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE MID STATE. SOME AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S...AND A FEW PATCHES
OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST WITH CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW WE DO NOT HAVE FREEZING TEMPS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT IF CONDITIONS ARE JUST RIGHT...SOME OF THE USUAL
COLDER...SHELTERED AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL BRING QUICK WARMING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...THE COOL AND DRY WEEKEND AIR MASS WILL
GET PUSHED OUT QUICKLY. BY MONDAY...MILDER...MORE SPRING-LIKE AIR
WILL RETURN...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




000
FXUS64 KMEG 311722
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1222 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TODAY AND WEAKEN. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS INCLUDED MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. BY TONIGHT A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER OVERNIGHT
THAN THE LAST FEW EVENINGS WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL START RETREATING BACK
EAST AS A WARM FRONT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AS
WELL WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION AND REACH
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL MEAN A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME WEST
TENNESSEE. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY MAINLY OVER WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREATS. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY KEEPING
THINGS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES PLEASANT FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TEMPORARILY
TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS EARLY EVENING
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT MEM/TUP. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT MEM/TUP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMEG 311722
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1222 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TODAY AND WEAKEN. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS INCLUDED MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. BY TONIGHT A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER OVERNIGHT
THAN THE LAST FEW EVENINGS WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL START RETREATING BACK
EAST AS A WARM FRONT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AS
WELL WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION AND REACH
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL MEAN A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME WEST
TENNESSEE. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY MAINLY OVER WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREATS. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY KEEPING
THINGS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES PLEASANT FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TEMPORARILY
TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS EARLY EVENING
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT MEM/TUP. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT MEM/TUP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 311722
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1222 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TODAY AND WEAKEN. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS INCLUDED MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. BY TONIGHT A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER OVERNIGHT
THAN THE LAST FEW EVENINGS WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL START RETREATING BACK
EAST AS A WARM FRONT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AS
WELL WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION AND REACH
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL MEAN A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME WEST
TENNESSEE. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY MAINLY OVER WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREATS. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY KEEPING
THINGS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES PLEASANT FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TEMPORARILY
TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS EARLY EVENING
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT MEM/TUP. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT MEM/TUP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 311722
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1222 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TODAY AND WEAKEN. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS INCLUDED MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. BY TONIGHT A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER OVERNIGHT
THAN THE LAST FEW EVENINGS WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL START RETREATING BACK
EAST AS A WARM FRONT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AS
WELL WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION AND REACH
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL MEAN A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME WEST
TENNESSEE. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY MAINLY OVER WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREATS. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY KEEPING
THINGS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES PLEASANT FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TEMPORARILY
TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS EARLY EVENING
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT MEM/TUP. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT MEM/TUP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 311613
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1113 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST NW OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH HOURLY TEMPS RUNNING CONSISTENTLY ABOVE FORECAST
VALUES, SO AM UPDATING THE FORECAST AND ADDING A COUPLE OF DEGREES
TO HIGH TEMPS. A FEW CELLS ARE POPPING UP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER, SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT POP
FORECAST AS IS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING TO WSW
10-15KT TODAY...THEN BECMG N WITH FROPA THIS EVENING. FRONT LOOKS
DRY...POPS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU THU NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THRU THU
NIGHT...TEMPS.

AS IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...A SHIFT THRU WED AFTERNOON
OF BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MORE TO OUR SW...WITH AN OVERALL DRIER
SOLUTION MODEL SOLUTION. PER LATEST RECOMMENDATIONS OF WPC SHORT TERM
RANGE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION...LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE GFS/EURO
SOLUTION. DIFFERENCES SUBTLE OVERALL IN THE FIRST PLACE. LET`S TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISO TSTMS MAINLY S OF I-40 TODAY...AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY CHANCE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. BEST CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...WHERE BEST MOISTURE
/INSTABILITY/AND DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES MOST PERSISTENT AS STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA MOVES NORTHWARD AND
BECOMES DIFFUSE JUST S OF THE TN/AL BORDER AND A COLD FRONT DROPS FROM
THE NRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TO NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER. AS STATED
BY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S DISCUSSION BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST S OF THE MID STATE WITH LATEST SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
MOVING THE MARGINAL AREA NOW JUST S OF THE MID STATE TOO. WILL LEAN
ALSO WITH A COMPROMISE ON HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN GFS/EURO
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 5 TO AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES...FROM AROUND 70 PLATEAU TO UPPER 70S N PORTIONS OF TN
RIVER VALLEY REGION NEAR THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION.

WILL KEEP MAINLY ISO SHWRS/TSTMS LIMITED TO LOCATIONS S OF I-40 THIS
EVENING ALSO...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH BY WED AFTERNOON TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF ANY CONVECTION TO LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TN/AL BORDER...WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS W TO E WED
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN AND A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S PLATEAU TO AROUND 60 TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION. MOST OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE MID STATE WILL BE IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TSTMS ON THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE AFTERNOON
HOURS PROGRESS...AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MID STATE
WITH ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT NOW WELL NE OF THE MID STATE AS
BROAD WAA SCENARIO BEGINS TO BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS USHERED IN FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION...AS HIGHS WILL
BE SPANNING THE 70S ACROSS THE MID STATE...IN SOME INSTANCES AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY
SPANNING THE 60S ON THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING INTO
THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES ALOFT POSSIBLE...AS
SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z FRI.

31

LONG TERM(FRI THRU MON)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE MID STATE. A WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS...ENHANCING THE
POPS...AND BRINGING SOME STRONG...AND PERHAPS SEVERE...STORMS ON
FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO THE CONVECTION BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE MID STATE. SOME AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S...AND A FEW PATCHES
OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST WITH CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW WE DO NOT HAVE FREEZING TEMPS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT IF CONDITIONS ARE JUST RIGHT...SOME OF THE USUAL
COLDER...SHELTERED AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL BRING QUICK WARMING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...THE COOL AND DRY WEEKEND AIR MASS WILL
GET PUSHED OUT QUICKLY. BY MONDAY...MILDER...MORE SPRING-LIKE AIR
WILL RETURN...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 311613
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1113 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST NW OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH HOURLY TEMPS RUNNING CONSISTENTLY ABOVE FORECAST
VALUES, SO AM UPDATING THE FORECAST AND ADDING A COUPLE OF DEGREES
TO HIGH TEMPS. A FEW CELLS ARE POPPING UP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER, SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT POP
FORECAST AS IS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING TO WSW
10-15KT TODAY...THEN BECMG N WITH FROPA THIS EVENING. FRONT LOOKS
DRY...POPS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU THU NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THRU THU
NIGHT...TEMPS.

AS IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...A SHIFT THRU WED AFTERNOON
OF BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MORE TO OUR SW...WITH AN OVERALL DRIER
SOLUTION MODEL SOLUTION. PER LATEST RECOMMENDATIONS OF WPC SHORT TERM
RANGE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION...LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE GFS/EURO
SOLUTION. DIFFERENCES SUBTLE OVERALL IN THE FIRST PLACE. LET`S TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISO TSTMS MAINLY S OF I-40 TODAY...AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY CHANCE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. BEST CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...WHERE BEST MOISTURE
/INSTABILITY/AND DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES MOST PERSISTENT AS STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA MOVES NORTHWARD AND
BECOMES DIFFUSE JUST S OF THE TN/AL BORDER AND A COLD FRONT DROPS FROM
THE NRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TO NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER. AS STATED
BY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S DISCUSSION BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST S OF THE MID STATE WITH LATEST SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
MOVING THE MARGINAL AREA NOW JUST S OF THE MID STATE TOO. WILL LEAN
ALSO WITH A COMPROMISE ON HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN GFS/EURO
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 5 TO AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES...FROM AROUND 70 PLATEAU TO UPPER 70S N PORTIONS OF TN
RIVER VALLEY REGION NEAR THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION.

WILL KEEP MAINLY ISO SHWRS/TSTMS LIMITED TO LOCATIONS S OF I-40 THIS
EVENING ALSO...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH BY WED AFTERNOON TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF ANY CONVECTION TO LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TN/AL BORDER...WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS W TO E WED
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN AND A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S PLATEAU TO AROUND 60 TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION. MOST OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE MID STATE WILL BE IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TSTMS ON THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE AFTERNOON
HOURS PROGRESS...AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MID STATE
WITH ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT NOW WELL NE OF THE MID STATE AS
BROAD WAA SCENARIO BEGINS TO BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS USHERED IN FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION...AS HIGHS WILL
BE SPANNING THE 70S ACROSS THE MID STATE...IN SOME INSTANCES AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY
SPANNING THE 60S ON THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING INTO
THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES ALOFT POSSIBLE...AS
SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z FRI.

31

LONG TERM(FRI THRU MON)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE MID STATE. A WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS...ENHANCING THE
POPS...AND BRINGING SOME STRONG...AND PERHAPS SEVERE...STORMS ON
FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO THE CONVECTION BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE MID STATE. SOME AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S...AND A FEW PATCHES
OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST WITH CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW WE DO NOT HAVE FREEZING TEMPS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT IF CONDITIONS ARE JUST RIGHT...SOME OF THE USUAL
COLDER...SHELTERED AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL BRING QUICK WARMING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...THE COOL AND DRY WEEKEND AIR MASS WILL
GET PUSHED OUT QUICKLY. BY MONDAY...MILDER...MORE SPRING-LIKE AIR
WILL RETURN...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




000
FXUS64 KOHX 311613
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1113 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST NW OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH HOURLY TEMPS RUNNING CONSISTENTLY ABOVE FORECAST
VALUES, SO AM UPDATING THE FORECAST AND ADDING A COUPLE OF DEGREES
TO HIGH TEMPS. A FEW CELLS ARE POPPING UP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER, SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT POP
FORECAST AS IS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING TO WSW
10-15KT TODAY...THEN BECMG N WITH FROPA THIS EVENING. FRONT LOOKS
DRY...POPS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU THU NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THRU THU
NIGHT...TEMPS.

AS IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...A SHIFT THRU WED AFTERNOON
OF BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MORE TO OUR SW...WITH AN OVERALL DRIER
SOLUTION MODEL SOLUTION. PER LATEST RECOMMENDATIONS OF WPC SHORT TERM
RANGE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION...LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE GFS/EURO
SOLUTION. DIFFERENCES SUBTLE OVERALL IN THE FIRST PLACE. LET`S TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISO TSTMS MAINLY S OF I-40 TODAY...AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY CHANCE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. BEST CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...WHERE BEST MOISTURE
/INSTABILITY/AND DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES MOST PERSISTENT AS STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA MOVES NORTHWARD AND
BECOMES DIFFUSE JUST S OF THE TN/AL BORDER AND A COLD FRONT DROPS FROM
THE NRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TO NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER. AS STATED
BY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S DISCUSSION BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST S OF THE MID STATE WITH LATEST SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
MOVING THE MARGINAL AREA NOW JUST S OF THE MID STATE TOO. WILL LEAN
ALSO WITH A COMPROMISE ON HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN GFS/EURO
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 5 TO AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES...FROM AROUND 70 PLATEAU TO UPPER 70S N PORTIONS OF TN
RIVER VALLEY REGION NEAR THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION.

WILL KEEP MAINLY ISO SHWRS/TSTMS LIMITED TO LOCATIONS S OF I-40 THIS
EVENING ALSO...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH BY WED AFTERNOON TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF ANY CONVECTION TO LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TN/AL BORDER...WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS W TO E WED
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN AND A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S PLATEAU TO AROUND 60 TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION. MOST OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE MID STATE WILL BE IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TSTMS ON THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE AFTERNOON
HOURS PROGRESS...AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MID STATE
WITH ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT NOW WELL NE OF THE MID STATE AS
BROAD WAA SCENARIO BEGINS TO BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS USHERED IN FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION...AS HIGHS WILL
BE SPANNING THE 70S ACROSS THE MID STATE...IN SOME INSTANCES AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY
SPANNING THE 60S ON THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING INTO
THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES ALOFT POSSIBLE...AS
SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z FRI.

31

LONG TERM(FRI THRU MON)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE MID STATE. A WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS...ENHANCING THE
POPS...AND BRINGING SOME STRONG...AND PERHAPS SEVERE...STORMS ON
FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO THE CONVECTION BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE MID STATE. SOME AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S...AND A FEW PATCHES
OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST WITH CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW WE DO NOT HAVE FREEZING TEMPS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT IF CONDITIONS ARE JUST RIGHT...SOME OF THE USUAL
COLDER...SHELTERED AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL BRING QUICK WARMING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...THE COOL AND DRY WEEKEND AIR MASS WILL
GET PUSHED OUT QUICKLY. BY MONDAY...MILDER...MORE SPRING-LIKE AIR
WILL RETURN...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




000
FXUS64 KOHX 311613
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1113 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST NW OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH HOURLY TEMPS RUNNING CONSISTENTLY ABOVE FORECAST
VALUES, SO AM UPDATING THE FORECAST AND ADDING A COUPLE OF DEGREES
TO HIGH TEMPS. A FEW CELLS ARE POPPING UP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER, SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT POP
FORECAST AS IS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING TO WSW
10-15KT TODAY...THEN BECMG N WITH FROPA THIS EVENING. FRONT LOOKS
DRY...POPS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU THU NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THRU THU
NIGHT...TEMPS.

AS IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...A SHIFT THRU WED AFTERNOON
OF BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MORE TO OUR SW...WITH AN OVERALL DRIER
SOLUTION MODEL SOLUTION. PER LATEST RECOMMENDATIONS OF WPC SHORT TERM
RANGE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION...LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE GFS/EURO
SOLUTION. DIFFERENCES SUBTLE OVERALL IN THE FIRST PLACE. LET`S TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISO TSTMS MAINLY S OF I-40 TODAY...AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY CHANCE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. BEST CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...WHERE BEST MOISTURE
/INSTABILITY/AND DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES MOST PERSISTENT AS STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA MOVES NORTHWARD AND
BECOMES DIFFUSE JUST S OF THE TN/AL BORDER AND A COLD FRONT DROPS FROM
THE NRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TO NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER. AS STATED
BY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S DISCUSSION BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST S OF THE MID STATE WITH LATEST SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
MOVING THE MARGINAL AREA NOW JUST S OF THE MID STATE TOO. WILL LEAN
ALSO WITH A COMPROMISE ON HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN GFS/EURO
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 5 TO AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES...FROM AROUND 70 PLATEAU TO UPPER 70S N PORTIONS OF TN
RIVER VALLEY REGION NEAR THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION.

WILL KEEP MAINLY ISO SHWRS/TSTMS LIMITED TO LOCATIONS S OF I-40 THIS
EVENING ALSO...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH BY WED AFTERNOON TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF ANY CONVECTION TO LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TN/AL BORDER...WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS W TO E WED
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN AND A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S PLATEAU TO AROUND 60 TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION. MOST OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE MID STATE WILL BE IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TSTMS ON THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE AFTERNOON
HOURS PROGRESS...AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MID STATE
WITH ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT NOW WELL NE OF THE MID STATE AS
BROAD WAA SCENARIO BEGINS TO BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS USHERED IN FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION...AS HIGHS WILL
BE SPANNING THE 70S ACROSS THE MID STATE...IN SOME INSTANCES AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY
SPANNING THE 60S ON THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING INTO
THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES ALOFT POSSIBLE...AS
SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z FRI.

31

LONG TERM(FRI THRU MON)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE MID STATE. A WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS...ENHANCING THE
POPS...AND BRINGING SOME STRONG...AND PERHAPS SEVERE...STORMS ON
FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO THE CONVECTION BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE MID STATE. SOME AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S...AND A FEW PATCHES
OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST WITH CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW WE DO NOT HAVE FREEZING TEMPS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT IF CONDITIONS ARE JUST RIGHT...SOME OF THE USUAL
COLDER...SHELTERED AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL BRING QUICK WARMING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...THE COOL AND DRY WEEKEND AIR MASS WILL
GET PUSHED OUT QUICKLY. BY MONDAY...MILDER...MORE SPRING-LIKE AIR
WILL RETURN...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KMRX 311424
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1024 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...NICE MORNING SETTING UP WITH LOTS OF INSOLATION AND
VERY FEW INHIBITING CLOUDS. WILL TWEAK MAX TEMPS UP IN A COUPLE
SPOTS WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF UPPER
MIDWEST COOL FRONT. WAS SKEPTICAL ABOUT DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLE
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE BUT NEW 12Z MODEL RUNS JUST
DON`T WANT TO LET GO OF POSSIBILITY OF SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY AND
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OF COURSE MOST OF THE THREAT COMES
FROM LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF WEAK MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SHORT WAVE DUE IN THE REGION LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
THE FORECAST LOOKS ALRIGHT WITH ALL THIS IN MIND AND EVEN WEIGHTS
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE IN THE FIRST PERIOD WITH EXTENSION INTO
THE SECOND PERIOD. THUNDER ALSO NOT A BAD IDEA WITH CAPES POPPING
UP AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 311424
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1024 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...NICE MORNING SETTING UP WITH LOTS OF INSOLATION AND
VERY FEW INHIBITING CLOUDS. WILL TWEAK MAX TEMPS UP IN A COUPLE
SPOTS WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF UPPER
MIDWEST COOL FRONT. WAS SKEPTICAL ABOUT DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLE
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE BUT NEW 12Z MODEL RUNS JUST
DON`T WANT TO LET GO OF POSSIBILITY OF SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY AND
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OF COURSE MOST OF THE THREAT COMES
FROM LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF WEAK MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SHORT WAVE DUE IN THE REGION LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
THE FORECAST LOOKS ALRIGHT WITH ALL THIS IN MIND AND EVEN WEIGHTS
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE IN THE FIRST PERIOD WITH EXTENSION INTO
THE SECOND PERIOD. THUNDER ALSO NOT A BAD IDEA WITH CAPES POPPING
UP AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 311424
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1024 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...NICE MORNING SETTING UP WITH LOTS OF INSOLATION AND
VERY FEW INHIBITING CLOUDS. WILL TWEAK MAX TEMPS UP IN A COUPLE
SPOTS WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF UPPER
MIDWEST COOL FRONT. WAS SKEPTICAL ABOUT DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLE
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE BUT NEW 12Z MODEL RUNS JUST
DON`T WANT TO LET GO OF POSSIBILITY OF SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY AND
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OF COURSE MOST OF THE THREAT COMES
FROM LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF WEAK MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SHORT WAVE DUE IN THE REGION LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
THE FORECAST LOOKS ALRIGHT WITH ALL THIS IN MIND AND EVEN WEIGHTS
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE IN THE FIRST PERIOD WITH EXTENSION INTO
THE SECOND PERIOD. THUNDER ALSO NOT A BAD IDEA WITH CAPES POPPING
UP AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 311424
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1024 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...NICE MORNING SETTING UP WITH LOTS OF INSOLATION AND
VERY FEW INHIBITING CLOUDS. WILL TWEAK MAX TEMPS UP IN A COUPLE
SPOTS WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF UPPER
MIDWEST COOL FRONT. WAS SKEPTICAL ABOUT DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLE
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE BUT NEW 12Z MODEL RUNS JUST
DON`T WANT TO LET GO OF POSSIBILITY OF SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY AND
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OF COURSE MOST OF THE THREAT COMES
FROM LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF WEAK MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SHORT WAVE DUE IN THE REGION LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
THE FORECAST LOOKS ALRIGHT WITH ALL THIS IN MIND AND EVEN WEIGHTS
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE IN THE FIRST PERIOD WITH EXTENSION INTO
THE SECOND PERIOD. THUNDER ALSO NOT A BAD IDEA WITH CAPES POPPING
UP AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOHX 311133
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
633 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING TO WSW
10-15KT TODAY...THEN BECMG N WITH FROPA THIS EVENING. FRONT LOOKS
DRY...POPS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU THU NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THRU THU
NIGHT...TEMPS.

AS IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...A SHIFT THRU WED AFTERNOON
OF BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MORE TO OUR SW...WITH AN OVERALL DRIER
SOLUTION MODEL SOLUTION. PER LATEST RECOMMENDATIONS OF WPC SHORT TERM
RANGE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION...LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE GFS/EURO
SOLUTION. DIFFERENCES SUBTLE OVERALL IN THE FIRST PLACE. LET`S TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISO TSTMS MAINLY S OF I-40 TODAY...AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY CHANCE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. BEST CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...WHERE BEST MOISTURE
/INSTABILITY/AND DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES MOST PERSISTENT AS STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA MOVES NORTHWARD AND
BECOMES DIFFUSE JUST S OF THE TN/AL BORDER AND A COLD FRONT DROPS FROM
THE NRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TO NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER. AS STATED
BY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S DISCUSSION BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST S OF THE MID STATE WITH LATEST SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
MOVING THE MARGINAL AREA NOW JUST S OF THE MID STATE TOO. WILL LEAN
ALSO WITH A COMPROMISE ON HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN GFS/EURO
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 5 TO AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES...FROM AROUND 70 PLATEAU TO UPPER 70S N PORTIONS OF TN
RIVER VALLEY REGION NEAR THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION.

WILL KEEP MAINLY ISO SHWRS/TSTMS LIMITED TO LOCATIONS S OF I-40 THIS
EVENING ALSO...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH BY WED AFTERNOON TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF ANY CONVECTION TO LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TN/AL BORDER...WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS W TO E WED
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN AND A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S PLATEAU TO AROUND 60 TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION. MOST OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE MID STATE WILL BE IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TSTMS ON THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE AFTERNOON
HOURS PROGRESS...AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MID STATE
WITH ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT NOW WELL NE OF THE MID STATE AS
BROAD WAA SCENARIO BEGINS TO BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS USHERED IN FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION...AS HIGHS WILL
BE SPANNING THE 70S ACROSS THE MID STATE...IN SOME INSTANCES AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY
SPANNING THE 60S ON THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING INTO
THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES ALOFT POSSIBLE...AS
SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z FRI.

31

LONG TERM(FRI THRU MON)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE MID STATE. A WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS...ENHANCING THE
POPS...AND BRINGING SOME STRONG...AND PERHAPS SEVERE...STORMS ON
FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO THE CONVECTION BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE MID STATE. SOME AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S...AND A FEW PATCHES
OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST WITH CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW WE DO NOT HAVE FREEZING TEMPS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT IF CONDITIONS ARE JUST RIGHT...SOME OF THE USUAL
COLDER...SHELTERED AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL BRING QUICK WARMING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...THE COOL AND DRY WEEKEND AIR MASS WILL
GET PUSHED OUT QUICKLY. BY MONDAY...MILDER...MORE SPRING-LIKE AIR
WILL RETURN...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 311133
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
633 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING TO WSW
10-15KT TODAY...THEN BECMG N WITH FROPA THIS EVENING. FRONT LOOKS
DRY...POPS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU THU NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THRU THU
NIGHT...TEMPS.

AS IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...A SHIFT THRU WED AFTERNOON
OF BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MORE TO OUR SW...WITH AN OVERALL DRIER
SOLUTION MODEL SOLUTION. PER LATEST RECOMMENDATIONS OF WPC SHORT TERM
RANGE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION...LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE GFS/EURO
SOLUTION. DIFFERENCES SUBTLE OVERALL IN THE FIRST PLACE. LET`S TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISO TSTMS MAINLY S OF I-40 TODAY...AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY CHANCE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. BEST CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...WHERE BEST MOISTURE
/INSTABILITY/AND DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES MOST PERSISTENT AS STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA MOVES NORTHWARD AND
BECOMES DIFFUSE JUST S OF THE TN/AL BORDER AND A COLD FRONT DROPS FROM
THE NRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TO NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER. AS STATED
BY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S DISCUSSION BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST S OF THE MID STATE WITH LATEST SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
MOVING THE MARGINAL AREA NOW JUST S OF THE MID STATE TOO. WILL LEAN
ALSO WITH A COMPROMISE ON HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN GFS/EURO
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 5 TO AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES...FROM AROUND 70 PLATEAU TO UPPER 70S N PORTIONS OF TN
RIVER VALLEY REGION NEAR THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION.

WILL KEEP MAINLY ISO SHWRS/TSTMS LIMITED TO LOCATIONS S OF I-40 THIS
EVENING ALSO...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH BY WED AFTERNOON TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF ANY CONVECTION TO LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TN/AL BORDER...WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS W TO E WED
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN AND A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S PLATEAU TO AROUND 60 TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION. MOST OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE MID STATE WILL BE IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TSTMS ON THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE AFTERNOON
HOURS PROGRESS...AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MID STATE
WITH ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT NOW WELL NE OF THE MID STATE AS
BROAD WAA SCENARIO BEGINS TO BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS USHERED IN FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION...AS HIGHS WILL
BE SPANNING THE 70S ACROSS THE MID STATE...IN SOME INSTANCES AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY
SPANNING THE 60S ON THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING INTO
THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES ALOFT POSSIBLE...AS
SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z FRI.

31

LONG TERM(FRI THRU MON)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE MID STATE. A WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS...ENHANCING THE
POPS...AND BRINGING SOME STRONG...AND PERHAPS SEVERE...STORMS ON
FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO THE CONVECTION BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE MID STATE. SOME AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S...AND A FEW PATCHES
OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST WITH CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW WE DO NOT HAVE FREEZING TEMPS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT IF CONDITIONS ARE JUST RIGHT...SOME OF THE USUAL
COLDER...SHELTERED AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL BRING QUICK WARMING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...THE COOL AND DRY WEEKEND AIR MASS WILL
GET PUSHED OUT QUICKLY. BY MONDAY...MILDER...MORE SPRING-LIKE AIR
WILL RETURN...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 311133
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
633 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING TO WSW
10-15KT TODAY...THEN BECMG N WITH FROPA THIS EVENING. FRONT LOOKS
DRY...POPS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU THU NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THRU THU
NIGHT...TEMPS.

AS IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...A SHIFT THRU WED AFTERNOON
OF BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MORE TO OUR SW...WITH AN OVERALL DRIER
SOLUTION MODEL SOLUTION. PER LATEST RECOMMENDATIONS OF WPC SHORT TERM
RANGE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION...LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE GFS/EURO
SOLUTION. DIFFERENCES SUBTLE OVERALL IN THE FIRST PLACE. LET`S TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISO TSTMS MAINLY S OF I-40 TODAY...AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY CHANCE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. BEST CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...WHERE BEST MOISTURE
/INSTABILITY/AND DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES MOST PERSISTENT AS STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA MOVES NORTHWARD AND
BECOMES DIFFUSE JUST S OF THE TN/AL BORDER AND A COLD FRONT DROPS FROM
THE NRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TO NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER. AS STATED
BY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S DISCUSSION BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST S OF THE MID STATE WITH LATEST SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
MOVING THE MARGINAL AREA NOW JUST S OF THE MID STATE TOO. WILL LEAN
ALSO WITH A COMPROMISE ON HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN GFS/EURO
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 5 TO AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES...FROM AROUND 70 PLATEAU TO UPPER 70S N PORTIONS OF TN
RIVER VALLEY REGION NEAR THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION.

WILL KEEP MAINLY ISO SHWRS/TSTMS LIMITED TO LOCATIONS S OF I-40 THIS
EVENING ALSO...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH BY WED AFTERNOON TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF ANY CONVECTION TO LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TN/AL BORDER...WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS W TO E WED
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN AND A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S PLATEAU TO AROUND 60 TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION. MOST OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE MID STATE WILL BE IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TSTMS ON THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE AFTERNOON
HOURS PROGRESS...AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MID STATE
WITH ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT NOW WELL NE OF THE MID STATE AS
BROAD WAA SCENARIO BEGINS TO BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS USHERED IN FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION...AS HIGHS WILL
BE SPANNING THE 70S ACROSS THE MID STATE...IN SOME INSTANCES AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY
SPANNING THE 60S ON THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING INTO
THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES ALOFT POSSIBLE...AS
SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z FRI.

31

LONG TERM(FRI THRU MON)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE MID STATE. A WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS...ENHANCING THE
POPS...AND BRINGING SOME STRONG...AND PERHAPS SEVERE...STORMS ON
FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO THE CONVECTION BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE MID STATE. SOME AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S...AND A FEW PATCHES
OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST WITH CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW WE DO NOT HAVE FREEZING TEMPS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT IF CONDITIONS ARE JUST RIGHT...SOME OF THE USUAL
COLDER...SHELTERED AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL BRING QUICK WARMING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...THE COOL AND DRY WEEKEND AIR MASS WILL
GET PUSHED OUT QUICKLY. BY MONDAY...MILDER...MORE SPRING-LIKE AIR
WILL RETURN...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 311133
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
633 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING TO WSW
10-15KT TODAY...THEN BECMG N WITH FROPA THIS EVENING. FRONT LOOKS
DRY...POPS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU THU NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THRU THU
NIGHT...TEMPS.

AS IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...A SHIFT THRU WED AFTERNOON
OF BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MORE TO OUR SW...WITH AN OVERALL DRIER
SOLUTION MODEL SOLUTION. PER LATEST RECOMMENDATIONS OF WPC SHORT TERM
RANGE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION...LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE GFS/EURO
SOLUTION. DIFFERENCES SUBTLE OVERALL IN THE FIRST PLACE. LET`S TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISO TSTMS MAINLY S OF I-40 TODAY...AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY CHANCE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. BEST CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...WHERE BEST MOISTURE
/INSTABILITY/AND DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES MOST PERSISTENT AS STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA MOVES NORTHWARD AND
BECOMES DIFFUSE JUST S OF THE TN/AL BORDER AND A COLD FRONT DROPS FROM
THE NRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TO NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER. AS STATED
BY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S DISCUSSION BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST S OF THE MID STATE WITH LATEST SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
MOVING THE MARGINAL AREA NOW JUST S OF THE MID STATE TOO. WILL LEAN
ALSO WITH A COMPROMISE ON HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN GFS/EURO
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 5 TO AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES...FROM AROUND 70 PLATEAU TO UPPER 70S N PORTIONS OF TN
RIVER VALLEY REGION NEAR THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION.

WILL KEEP MAINLY ISO SHWRS/TSTMS LIMITED TO LOCATIONS S OF I-40 THIS
EVENING ALSO...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH BY WED AFTERNOON TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF ANY CONVECTION TO LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TN/AL BORDER...WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS W TO E WED
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN AND A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S PLATEAU TO AROUND 60 TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION. MOST OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE MID STATE WILL BE IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TSTMS ON THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE AFTERNOON
HOURS PROGRESS...AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MID STATE
WITH ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT NOW WELL NE OF THE MID STATE AS
BROAD WAA SCENARIO BEGINS TO BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS USHERED IN FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION...AS HIGHS WILL
BE SPANNING THE 70S ACROSS THE MID STATE...IN SOME INSTANCES AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY
SPANNING THE 60S ON THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING INTO
THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES ALOFT POSSIBLE...AS
SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z FRI.

31

LONG TERM(FRI THRU MON)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE MID STATE. A WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS...ENHANCING THE
POPS...AND BRINGING SOME STRONG...AND PERHAPS SEVERE...STORMS ON
FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO THE CONVECTION BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE MID STATE. SOME AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S...AND A FEW PATCHES
OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST WITH CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW WE DO NOT HAVE FREEZING TEMPS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT IF CONDITIONS ARE JUST RIGHT...SOME OF THE USUAL
COLDER...SHELTERED AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL BRING QUICK WARMING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...THE COOL AND DRY WEEKEND AIR MASS WILL
GET PUSHED OUT QUICKLY. BY MONDAY...MILDER...MORE SPRING-LIKE AIR
WILL RETURN...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 311126
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
726 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. FOR TODAY...LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREEP NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS CHA AND TYS. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN
FOR TRI. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PULL A 5KFT DECK OF CLOUDS INTO
CHA AND TYS TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SURFACE BASE INSTABILITY
APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. AS BOUNDARY MOVES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DEVELOP. CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY MOVING
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             73  50  75  52 /  40  20  10  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  72  44  69  48 /  30  20  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       73  45  71  48 /  20  10  10  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              69  39  66  40 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 311126
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
726 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. FOR TODAY...LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREEP NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS CHA AND TYS. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN
FOR TRI. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PULL A 5KFT DECK OF CLOUDS INTO
CHA AND TYS TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SURFACE BASE INSTABILITY
APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. AS BOUNDARY MOVES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DEVELOP. CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY MOVING
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             73  50  75  52 /  40  20  10  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  72  44  69  48 /  30  20  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       73  45  71  48 /  20  10  10  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              69  39  66  40 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 311124
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
624 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TODAY AND WEAKEN. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS INCLUDED MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. BY TONIGHT A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER OVERNIGHT
THAN THE LAST FEW EVENINGS WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL START RETREATING BACK
EAST AS A WARM FRONT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AS
WELL WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION AND REACH
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL MEAN A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME WEST
TENNESSEE. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY MAINLY OVER WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREATS. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY KEEPING
THINGS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES PLEASANT FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

EXPECT LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AT KMEM AND KTUP THIS MORNING AND
PERHAPS AT KMKL. REMAINING VFR AT KJBR. SHRAS WILL IMPACT KMEM
AND KTUP THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. CIGS WILL LIFT
TO VFR EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME THUNDER AT KTUP
THIS AFTERNOON SO INCLUDED AT VCTS THERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SWLY
TODAY. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ESPECIALLYAT
KMEM AND KTUP. SHRAS AND TSRAS WILL TAPER OFF AROUND OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD REDEVELOP AT KMEM AND KTUP BY SUNRISE.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 311124
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
624 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TODAY AND WEAKEN. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS INCLUDED MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. BY TONIGHT A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER OVERNIGHT
THAN THE LAST FEW EVENINGS WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL START RETREATING BACK
EAST AS A WARM FRONT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AS
WELL WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION AND REACH
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL MEAN A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME WEST
TENNESSEE. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY MAINLY OVER WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREATS. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY KEEPING
THINGS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES PLEASANT FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

EXPECT LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AT KMEM AND KTUP THIS MORNING AND
PERHAPS AT KMKL. REMAINING VFR AT KJBR. SHRAS WILL IMPACT KMEM
AND KTUP THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. CIGS WILL LIFT
TO VFR EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME THUNDER AT KTUP
THIS AFTERNOON SO INCLUDED AT VCTS THERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SWLY
TODAY. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ESPECIALLYAT
KMEM AND KTUP. SHRAS AND TSRAS WILL TAPER OFF AROUND OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD REDEVELOP AT KMEM AND KTUP BY SUNRISE.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 310909
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
409 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU THU NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THRU THU
NIGHT...TEMPS.

AS IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...A SHIFT THRU WED AFTERNOON
OF BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MORE TO OUR SW...WITH AN OVERALL DRIER
SOLUTION MODEL SOLUTION. PER LATEST RECOMMENDATIONS OF WPC SHORT TERM
RANGE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION...LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE GFS/EURO
SOLUTION. DIFFERENCES SUBTLE OVERALL IN THE FIRST PLACE. LET`S TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISO TSTMS MAINLY S OF I-40 TODAY...AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY CHANCE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. BEST CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...WHERE BEST MOISTURE
/INSTABILITY/AND DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES MOST PERSISTENT AS STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA MOVES NORTHWARD AND
BECOMES DIFFUSE JUST S OF THE TN/AL BORDER AND A COLD FRONT DROPS FROM
THE NRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TO NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER. AS STATED
BY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S DISCUSSION BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST S OF THE MID STATE WITH LATEST SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
MOVING THE MARGINAL AREA NOW JUST S OF THE MID STATE TOO. WILL LEAN
ALSO WITH A COMPROMISE ON HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN GFS/EURO
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 5 TO AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES...FROM AROUND 70 PLATEAU TO UPPER 70S N PORTIONS OF TN
RIVER VALLEY REGION NEAR THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION.

WILL KEEP MAINLY ISO SHWRS/TSTMS LIMITED TO LOCATIONS S OF I-40 THIS
EVENING ALSO...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH BY WED AFTERNOON TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF ANY CONVECTION TO LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TN/AL BORDER...WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS W TO E WED
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN AND A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S PLATEAU TO AROUND 60 TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION. MOST OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE MID STATE WILL BE IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TSTMS ON THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE AFTERNOON
HOURS PROGRESS...AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MID STATE
WITH ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT NOW WELL NE OF THE MID STATE AS
BROAD WAA SCENARIO BEGINS TO BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS USHERED IN FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION...AS HIGHS WILL
BE SPANNING THE 70S ACROSS THE MID STATE...IN SOME INSTANCES AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY
SPANNING THE 60S ON THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING INTO
THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES ALOFT POSSIBLE...AS
SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z FRI.

.LONG TERM(FRI THRU MON)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE MID STATE. A WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS...ENHANCING THE
POPS...AND BRINGING SOME STRONG...AND PERHAPS SEVERE...STORMS ON
FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO THE CONVECTION BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE MID STATE. SOME AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S...AND A FEW PATCHES
OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST WITH CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW WE DO NOT HAVE FREEZING TEMPS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT IF CONDITIONS ARE JUST RIGHT...SOME OF THE USUAL
COLDER...SHELTERED AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL BRING QUICK WARMING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...THE COOL AND DRY WEEKEND AIR MASS WILL
GET PUSHED OUT QUICKLY. BY MONDAY...MILDER...MORE SPRING-LIKE AIR
WILL RETURN...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      78  47  74  56 /  10  10  05  30
CLARKSVILLE    76  44  74  55 /  10  10  05  30
CROSSVILLE     70  42  68  47 /  10  10  05  20
COLUMBIA       75  49  76  57 /  20  20  10  30
LAWRENCEBURG   74  48  77  56 /  20  30  20  30
WAVERLY        79  46  75  60 /  20  10  05  30
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31/13





000
FXUS64 KOHX 310909
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
409 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU THU NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THRU THU
NIGHT...TEMPS.

AS IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...A SHIFT THRU WED AFTERNOON
OF BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MORE TO OUR SW...WITH AN OVERALL DRIER
SOLUTION MODEL SOLUTION. PER LATEST RECOMMENDATIONS OF WPC SHORT TERM
RANGE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION...LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE GFS/EURO
SOLUTION. DIFFERENCES SUBTLE OVERALL IN THE FIRST PLACE. LET`S TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISO TSTMS MAINLY S OF I-40 TODAY...AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY CHANCE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. BEST CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...WHERE BEST MOISTURE
/INSTABILITY/AND DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES MOST PERSISTENT AS STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA MOVES NORTHWARD AND
BECOMES DIFFUSE JUST S OF THE TN/AL BORDER AND A COLD FRONT DROPS FROM
THE NRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TO NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER. AS STATED
BY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S DISCUSSION BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST S OF THE MID STATE WITH LATEST SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
MOVING THE MARGINAL AREA NOW JUST S OF THE MID STATE TOO. WILL LEAN
ALSO WITH A COMPROMISE ON HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN GFS/EURO
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 5 TO AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES...FROM AROUND 70 PLATEAU TO UPPER 70S N PORTIONS OF TN
RIVER VALLEY REGION NEAR THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION.

WILL KEEP MAINLY ISO SHWRS/TSTMS LIMITED TO LOCATIONS S OF I-40 THIS
EVENING ALSO...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH BY WED AFTERNOON TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF ANY CONVECTION TO LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TN/AL BORDER...WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS W TO E WED
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN AND A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S PLATEAU TO AROUND 60 TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION. MOST OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE MID STATE WILL BE IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TSTMS ON THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE AFTERNOON
HOURS PROGRESS...AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MID STATE
WITH ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT NOW WELL NE OF THE MID STATE AS
BROAD WAA SCENARIO BEGINS TO BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS USHERED IN FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION...AS HIGHS WILL
BE SPANNING THE 70S ACROSS THE MID STATE...IN SOME INSTANCES AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY
SPANNING THE 60S ON THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING INTO
THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES ALOFT POSSIBLE...AS
SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z FRI.

.LONG TERM(FRI THRU MON)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE MID STATE. A WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS...ENHANCING THE
POPS...AND BRINGING SOME STRONG...AND PERHAPS SEVERE...STORMS ON
FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO THE CONVECTION BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE MID STATE. SOME AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S...AND A FEW PATCHES
OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST WITH CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW WE DO NOT HAVE FREEZING TEMPS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT IF CONDITIONS ARE JUST RIGHT...SOME OF THE USUAL
COLDER...SHELTERED AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL BRING QUICK WARMING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...THE COOL AND DRY WEEKEND AIR MASS WILL
GET PUSHED OUT QUICKLY. BY MONDAY...MILDER...MORE SPRING-LIKE AIR
WILL RETURN...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      78  47  74  56 /  10  10  05  30
CLARKSVILLE    76  44  74  55 /  10  10  05  30
CROSSVILLE     70  42  68  47 /  10  10  05  20
COLUMBIA       75  49  76  57 /  20  20  10  30
LAWRENCEBURG   74  48  77  56 /  20  30  20  30
WAVERLY        79  46  75  60 /  20  10  05  30
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31/13






000
FXUS64 KMEG 310827
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
327 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015


.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TODAY AND WEAKEN. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS INCLUDED MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. BY TONIGHT A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER OVERNIGHT
THAN THE LAST FEW EVENINGS WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL START RETREATING BACK
EAST AS A WARM FRONT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AS
WELL WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION AND REACH
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL MEAN A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME WEST
TENNESSEE. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY MAINLY OVER WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREATS. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY KEEPING
THINGS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES PLEASANT FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF SET

VFR OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO MEM AND TUP NEAR SUNRISE.
MKL MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL MVFR DECK...BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT AT JBR.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL FORM DURING THE MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST
IMPACT AT TUP. BY MID AFTERNOON CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR ALLOWING
SOME HEATING AND A REGENERATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HIGHER WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF IFR WEATHER IN THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 4-8 KTS FROM SOUTH
THROUGH WEST...THOUGH JBR MAY SEE THEM SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 310827
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
327 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015


.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TODAY AND WEAKEN. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS INCLUDED MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. BY TONIGHT A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER OVERNIGHT
THAN THE LAST FEW EVENINGS WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL START RETREATING BACK
EAST AS A WARM FRONT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AS
WELL WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION AND REACH
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL MEAN A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME WEST
TENNESSEE. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY MAINLY OVER WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREATS. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY KEEPING
THINGS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES PLEASANT FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF SET

VFR OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO MEM AND TUP NEAR SUNRISE.
MKL MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL MVFR DECK...BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT AT JBR.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL FORM DURING THE MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST
IMPACT AT TUP. BY MID AFTERNOON CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR ALLOWING
SOME HEATING AND A REGENERATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HIGHER WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF IFR WEATHER IN THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 4-8 KTS FROM SOUTH
THROUGH WEST...THOUGH JBR MAY SEE THEM SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 310827
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
327 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015


.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TODAY AND WEAKEN. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS INCLUDED MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. BY TONIGHT A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER OVERNIGHT
THAN THE LAST FEW EVENINGS WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL START RETREATING BACK
EAST AS A WARM FRONT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AS
WELL WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION AND REACH
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL MEAN A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME WEST
TENNESSEE. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY MAINLY OVER WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREATS. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY KEEPING
THINGS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES PLEASANT FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF SET

VFR OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO MEM AND TUP NEAR SUNRISE.
MKL MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL MVFR DECK...BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT AT JBR.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL FORM DURING THE MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST
IMPACT AT TUP. BY MID AFTERNOON CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR ALLOWING
SOME HEATING AND A REGENERATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HIGHER WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF IFR WEATHER IN THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 4-8 KTS FROM SOUTH
THROUGH WEST...THOUGH JBR MAY SEE THEM SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 310827
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
327 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015


.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TODAY AND WEAKEN. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS INCLUDED MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. BY TONIGHT A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER OVERNIGHT
THAN THE LAST FEW EVENINGS WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL START RETREATING BACK
EAST AS A WARM FRONT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AS
WELL WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION AND REACH
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL MEAN A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME WEST
TENNESSEE. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY MAINLY OVER WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREATS. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY KEEPING
THINGS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES PLEASANT FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF SET

VFR OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO MEM AND TUP NEAR SUNRISE.
MKL MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL MVFR DECK...BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT AT JBR.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL FORM DURING THE MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST
IMPACT AT TUP. BY MID AFTERNOON CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR ALLOWING
SOME HEATING AND A REGENERATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HIGHER WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF IFR WEATHER IN THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 4-8 KTS FROM SOUTH
THROUGH WEST...THOUGH JBR MAY SEE THEM SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 310827
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
327 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015


.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TODAY AND WEAKEN. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS INCLUDED MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. BY TONIGHT A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER OVERNIGHT
THAN THE LAST FEW EVENINGS WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL START RETREATING BACK
EAST AS A WARM FRONT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AS
WELL WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION AND REACH
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL MEAN A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME WEST
TENNESSEE. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY MAINLY OVER WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREATS. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY KEEPING
THINGS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES PLEASANT FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF SET

VFR OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO MEM AND TUP NEAR SUNRISE.
MKL MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL MVFR DECK...BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT AT JBR.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL FORM DURING THE MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST
IMPACT AT TUP. BY MID AFTERNOON CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR ALLOWING
SOME HEATING AND A REGENERATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HIGHER WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF IFR WEATHER IN THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 4-8 KTS FROM SOUTH
THROUGH WEST...THOUGH JBR MAY SEE THEM SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 310721
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
321 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY HELPING TO PULL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NORTHWARD UP THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SYNOPTIC
LIFT IS VERY LIMITED AND MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...SO CONVECTION WILL
BE LIMITED TO 20-40 PERCENT COVERAGE OVER GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH
SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS RETURNING.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...LONG TERM STARTS OFF DRY
BEFORE RIDGING OVER THE GULF COAST IS ABLE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE TO
THE AREA BRINGING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TILL A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT WEEK. FRONT WILL KNOCK BACK TEMPS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE AREA WHEN YOU COMPARE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

WE DRY OUT VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE REGION. WE WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL ANOTHER SYSTEM MAKES A RUN AT
THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             73  50  75  52 /  40  20  10  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  72  44  69  48 /  30  20  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       73  45  71  48 /  20  10  10  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              69  39  66  40 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 310721
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
321 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY HELPING TO PULL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NORTHWARD UP THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SYNOPTIC
LIFT IS VERY LIMITED AND MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...SO CONVECTION WILL
BE LIMITED TO 20-40 PERCENT COVERAGE OVER GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH
SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS RETURNING.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...LONG TERM STARTS OFF DRY
BEFORE RIDGING OVER THE GULF COAST IS ABLE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE TO
THE AREA BRINGING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TILL A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT WEEK. FRONT WILL KNOCK BACK TEMPS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE AREA WHEN YOU COMPARE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

WE DRY OUT VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE REGION. WE WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL ANOTHER SYSTEM MAKES A RUN AT
THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             73  50  75  52 /  40  20  10  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  72  44  69  48 /  30  20  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       73  45  71  48 /  20  10  10  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              69  39  66  40 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 310721
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
321 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY HELPING TO PULL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NORTHWARD UP THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SYNOPTIC
LIFT IS VERY LIMITED AND MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...SO CONVECTION WILL
BE LIMITED TO 20-40 PERCENT COVERAGE OVER GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH
SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS RETURNING.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...LONG TERM STARTS OFF DRY
BEFORE RIDGING OVER THE GULF COAST IS ABLE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE TO
THE AREA BRINGING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TILL A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT WEEK. FRONT WILL KNOCK BACK TEMPS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE AREA WHEN YOU COMPARE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

WE DRY OUT VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE REGION. WE WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL ANOTHER SYSTEM MAKES A RUN AT
THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             73  50  75  52 /  40  20  10  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  72  44  69  48 /  30  20  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       73  45  71  48 /  20  10  10  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              69  39  66  40 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 310721
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
321 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY HELPING TO PULL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NORTHWARD UP THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SYNOPTIC
LIFT IS VERY LIMITED AND MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...SO CONVECTION WILL
BE LIMITED TO 20-40 PERCENT COVERAGE OVER GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH
SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS RETURNING.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...LONG TERM STARTS OFF DRY
BEFORE RIDGING OVER THE GULF COAST IS ABLE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE TO
THE AREA BRINGING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TILL A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT WEEK. FRONT WILL KNOCK BACK TEMPS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE AREA WHEN YOU COMPARE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

WE DRY OUT VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE REGION. WE WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL ANOTHER SYSTEM MAKES A RUN AT
THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             73  50  75  52 /  40  20  10  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  72  44  69  48 /  30  20  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       73  45  71  48 /  20  10  10  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              69  39  66  40 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 310506 RRA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
106 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. FOR TODAY...LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREEP NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS CHA AND TYS. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN
FOR TRI. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PULL A 5KFT DECK OF CLOUDS INTO
CHA AND TYS TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SURFACE BASE INSTABILITY
APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. AS BOUNDARY MOVES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS (CHA) ARE EXPECTED DEVELOP. CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY
MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             41  73  49  73 /   0  20  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  38  70  45  69 /   0   0  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       38  71  45  69 /   0  10  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              34  68  39  67 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 310506
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
106 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. FOR TODAY...LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREEP NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS CHA AND TYS. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN
FOR TRI. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PULL A 5KFT DECK OF CLOUDS INTO
CHA AND TYS TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SURFACE BASE INSTABILITY
APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. AS BOUNDARY MOVES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS (CHA) ARE EXPECTED DEVELOP. CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY
MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             41  73  49  73 /   0  20  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  38  70  45  69 /   0   0  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       38  71  45  69 /   0  10  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              34  68  39  67 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 310506 RRA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
106 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. FOR TODAY...LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREEP NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS CHA AND TYS. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN
FOR TRI. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PULL A 5KFT DECK OF CLOUDS INTO
CHA AND TYS TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SURFACE BASE INSTABILITY
APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. AS BOUNDARY MOVES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS (CHA) ARE EXPECTED DEVELOP. CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY
MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             41  73  49  73 /   0  20  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  38  70  45  69 /   0   0  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       38  71  45  69 /   0  10  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              34  68  39  67 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 310506 RRA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
106 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. FOR TODAY...LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREEP NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS CHA AND TYS. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN
FOR TRI. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PULL A 5KFT DECK OF CLOUDS INTO
CHA AND TYS TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SURFACE BASE INSTABILITY
APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. AS BOUNDARY MOVES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS (CHA) ARE EXPECTED DEVELOP. CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY
MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             41  73  49  73 /   0  20  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  38  70  45  69 /   0   0  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       38  71  45  69 /   0  10  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              34  68  39  67 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 310506 RRA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
106 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. FOR TODAY...LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREEP NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS CHA AND TYS. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN
FOR TRI. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PULL A 5KFT DECK OF CLOUDS INTO
CHA AND TYS TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SURFACE BASE INSTABILITY
APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. AS BOUNDARY MOVES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS (CHA) ARE EXPECTED DEVELOP. CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY
MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             41  73  49  73 /   0  20  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  38  70  45  69 /   0   0  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       38  71  45  69 /   0  10  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              34  68  39  67 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 310506
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
106 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. FOR TODAY...LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREEP NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS CHA AND TYS. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN
FOR TRI. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PULL A 5KFT DECK OF CLOUDS INTO
CHA AND TYS TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SURFACE BASE INSTABILITY
APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. AS BOUNDARY MOVES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS (CHA) ARE EXPECTED DEVELOP. CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY
MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             41  73  49  73 /   0  20  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  38  70  45  69 /   0   0  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       38  71  45  69 /   0  10  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              34  68  39  67 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 310506
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
106 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. FOR TODAY...LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREEP NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS CHA AND TYS. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN
FOR TRI. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PULL A 5KFT DECK OF CLOUDS INTO
CHA AND TYS TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SURFACE BASE INSTABILITY
APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. AS BOUNDARY MOVES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS (CHA) ARE EXPECTED DEVELOP. CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY
MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             41  73  49  73 /   0  20  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  38  70  45  69 /   0   0  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       38  71  45  69 /   0  10  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              34  68  39  67 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 310452
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1152 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

UPDATE...

NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...

A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
EAST OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE WARM FRONT POSITIONED
ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WILL LIFT NORTH
INTO THE MID SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE MID SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A TYPICAL EARLY TO MID SPRING PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER THE
LOWER 48 THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOLLOWING A SUNNY DAY TODAY...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY AND
LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT THAT DROPPED THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH LATE SUNDAY
EVENING WAS STALLED ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT...RETURNING 50S
AND 60S DEWPOINTS TO THE MIDSOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE WARM SECTOR...MAIN
SOUTH OF A JONESBORO AR TO JACKSON TN LINE. GFS PROGS BOUNDARY
LAYER CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

THURSDAY/S RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE MORE IN QUESTION...AND WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH OF PREFRONTAL/WARM SECTOR CAPPING. HAVE PLACED
THURSDAY POPS NORTH OF I-40....WHERE CONVECTIVE CAP SHOULD BE WEAKEST.

12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS WERE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY 80 TO 100 METER 500MB HEIGHT FALLS AND MAY PROVIDE THE MIDSOUTH
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEK.

DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY....WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF SET

VFR OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO MEM AND TUP NEAR SUNRISE.
MKL MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL MVFR DECK...BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT AT JBR.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL FORM DURING THE MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST
IMPACT AT TUP. BY MID AFTERNOON CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR ALLOWING
SOME HEATING AND A REGENERATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HIGHER WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF IFR WEATHER IN THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 4-8 KTS FROM SOUTH
THROUGH WEST...THOUGH JBR MAY SEE THEM SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 310439
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1139 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...

06Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT OTHERWISE SKC. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP DURING MID MORNING
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS OR SO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT
AREAS SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

UPDATE...FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINATING THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OTHER THAN A
FEW HIGH CLOUD DRIFTING IN FROM THE NW...CLEAR SKIES REIGN. UPDATE
THIS EVENING REVOLVED AROUND HOURLY DEW POINTS TRENDS BUT AND EVEN
WITH CALM WINDS...NO FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 DEGREES.

FOCUS THEN BECOMES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO LOW 70S FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF MIDDLE TN. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S IN OUR AREA OF FOCUS...OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ISN`T EXACTLY IMPRESSIVE AT 35-40 KTS...BUT IT COULD
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DECENT UPDRAFTS AMONGST 1000-1500 J/KG.
EXPECT SOME LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE LINE
THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND FORECAST SOUNDING DEPICTING SOME DRY AIR ALOFT COULD
ENHANCE MUCAPE VALUES AND THE HAIL THREAT AS WELL SO THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB.

UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

UNGER

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KOHX 310439
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1139 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...

06Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT OTHERWISE SKC. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP DURING MID MORNING
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS OR SO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT
AREAS SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

UPDATE...FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINATING THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OTHER THAN A
FEW HIGH CLOUD DRIFTING IN FROM THE NW...CLEAR SKIES REIGN. UPDATE
THIS EVENING REVOLVED AROUND HOURLY DEW POINTS TRENDS BUT AND EVEN
WITH CALM WINDS...NO FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 DEGREES.

FOCUS THEN BECOMES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO LOW 70S FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF MIDDLE TN. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S IN OUR AREA OF FOCUS...OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ISN`T EXACTLY IMPRESSIVE AT 35-40 KTS...BUT IT COULD
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DECENT UPDRAFTS AMONGST 1000-1500 J/KG.
EXPECT SOME LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE LINE
THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND FORECAST SOUNDING DEPICTING SOME DRY AIR ALOFT COULD
ENHANCE MUCAPE VALUES AND THE HAIL THREAT AS WELL SO THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB.

UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

UNGER

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KOHX 310439
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1139 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...

06Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT OTHERWISE SKC. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP DURING MID MORNING
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS OR SO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT
AREAS SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

UPDATE...FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINATING THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OTHER THAN A
FEW HIGH CLOUD DRIFTING IN FROM THE NW...CLEAR SKIES REIGN. UPDATE
THIS EVENING REVOLVED AROUND HOURLY DEW POINTS TRENDS BUT AND EVEN
WITH CALM WINDS...NO FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 DEGREES.

FOCUS THEN BECOMES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO LOW 70S FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF MIDDLE TN. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S IN OUR AREA OF FOCUS...OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ISN`T EXACTLY IMPRESSIVE AT 35-40 KTS...BUT IT COULD
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DECENT UPDRAFTS AMONGST 1000-1500 J/KG.
EXPECT SOME LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE LINE
THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND FORECAST SOUNDING DEPICTING SOME DRY AIR ALOFT COULD
ENHANCE MUCAPE VALUES AND THE HAIL THREAT AS WELL SO THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB.

UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

UNGER

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KOHX 310439
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1139 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...

06Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT OTHERWISE SKC. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP DURING MID MORNING
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS OR SO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT
AREAS SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

UPDATE...FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINATING THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OTHER THAN A
FEW HIGH CLOUD DRIFTING IN FROM THE NW...CLEAR SKIES REIGN. UPDATE
THIS EVENING REVOLVED AROUND HOURLY DEW POINTS TRENDS BUT AND EVEN
WITH CALM WINDS...NO FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 DEGREES.

FOCUS THEN BECOMES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO LOW 70S FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF MIDDLE TN. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S IN OUR AREA OF FOCUS...OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ISN`T EXACTLY IMPRESSIVE AT 35-40 KTS...BUT IT COULD
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DECENT UPDRAFTS AMONGST 1000-1500 J/KG.
EXPECT SOME LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE LINE
THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND FORECAST SOUNDING DEPICTING SOME DRY AIR ALOFT COULD
ENHANCE MUCAPE VALUES AND THE HAIL THREAT AS WELL SO THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB.

UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

UNGER

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KOHX 310236
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
936 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINATING THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OTHER THAN A
FEW HIGH CLOUD DRIFTING IN FROM THE NW...CLEAR SKIES REIGN. UPDATE
THIS EVENING REVOLVED AROUND HOURLY DEW POINTS TRENDS BUT AND EVEN
WITH CALM WINDS...NO FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 DEGREES.

FOCUS THEN BECOMES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO LOW 70S FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF MIDDLE TN. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S IN OUR AREA OF FOCUS...OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ISN`T EXACTLY IMPRESSIVE AT 35-40 KTS...BUT IT COULD
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DECENT UPDRAFTS AMONGST 1000-1500 J/KG.
EXPECT SOME LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE LINE
THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND FORECAST SOUNDING DEPICTING SOME DRY AIR ALOFT COULD
ENHANCE MUCAPE VALUES AND THE HAIL THREAT AS WELL SO THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB.

UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL START TO CREEP IN LATE
TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KOHX 310236
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
936 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINATING THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OTHER THAN A
FEW HIGH CLOUD DRIFTING IN FROM THE NW...CLEAR SKIES REIGN. UPDATE
THIS EVENING REVOLVED AROUND HOURLY DEW POINTS TRENDS BUT AND EVEN
WITH CALM WINDS...NO FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 DEGREES.

FOCUS THEN BECOMES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO LOW 70S FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF MIDDLE TN. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S IN OUR AREA OF FOCUS...OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ISN`T EXACTLY IMPRESSIVE AT 35-40 KTS...BUT IT COULD
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DECENT UPDRAFTS AMONGST 1000-1500 J/KG.
EXPECT SOME LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE LINE
THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND FORECAST SOUNDING DEPICTING SOME DRY AIR ALOFT COULD
ENHANCE MUCAPE VALUES AND THE HAIL THREAT AS WELL SO THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB.

UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL START TO CREEP IN LATE
TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KOHX 310236
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
936 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINATING THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OTHER THAN A
FEW HIGH CLOUD DRIFTING IN FROM THE NW...CLEAR SKIES REIGN. UPDATE
THIS EVENING REVOLVED AROUND HOURLY DEW POINTS TRENDS BUT AND EVEN
WITH CALM WINDS...NO FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 DEGREES.

FOCUS THEN BECOMES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO LOW 70S FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF MIDDLE TN. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S IN OUR AREA OF FOCUS...OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ISN`T EXACTLY IMPRESSIVE AT 35-40 KTS...BUT IT COULD
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DECENT UPDRAFTS AMONGST 1000-1500 J/KG.
EXPECT SOME LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE LINE
THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND FORECAST SOUNDING DEPICTING SOME DRY AIR ALOFT COULD
ENHANCE MUCAPE VALUES AND THE HAIL THREAT AS WELL SO THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB.

UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL START TO CREEP IN LATE
TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KOHX 310236
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
936 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINATING THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OTHER THAN A
FEW HIGH CLOUD DRIFTING IN FROM THE NW...CLEAR SKIES REIGN. UPDATE
THIS EVENING REVOLVED AROUND HOURLY DEW POINTS TRENDS BUT AND EVEN
WITH CALM WINDS...NO FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 DEGREES.

FOCUS THEN BECOMES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO LOW 70S FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF MIDDLE TN. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S IN OUR AREA OF FOCUS...OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ISN`T EXACTLY IMPRESSIVE AT 35-40 KTS...BUT IT COULD
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DECENT UPDRAFTS AMONGST 1000-1500 J/KG.
EXPECT SOME LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE LINE
THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND FORECAST SOUNDING DEPICTING SOME DRY AIR ALOFT COULD
ENHANCE MUCAPE VALUES AND THE HAIL THREAT AS WELL SO THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB.

UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL START TO CREEP IN LATE
TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KMEG 310146
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
846 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...

NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
EAST OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE WARM FRONT POSITIONED
ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WILL LIFT NORTH
INTO THE MID SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE MID SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A TYPICAL EARLY TO MID SPRING PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER THE
LOWER 48 THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOLLOWING A SUNNY DAY TODAY...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY AND
LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT THAT DROPPED THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH LATE SUNDAY
EVENING WAS STALLED ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT...RETURNING 50S
AND 60S DEWPOINTS TO THE MIDSOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE WARM SECTOR...MAIN
SOUTH OF A JONESBORO AR TO JACKSON TN LINE. GFS PROGS BOUNDARY
LAYER CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

THURSDAY/S RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE MORE IN QUESTION...AND WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH OF PREFRONTAL/WARM SECTOR CAPPING. HAVE PLACED
THURSDAY POPS NORTH OF I-40....WHERE CONVECTIVE CAP SHOULD BE WEAKEST.

12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS WERE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY 80 TO 100 METER 500MB HEIGHT FALLS AND MAY PROVIDE THE MIDSOUTH
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEK.

DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY....WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF SET

VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT BEFORE
DAWN MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI SO INTRODUCED VCTS AT TUP.
BETTER THREAT FOR STORMS APPEARS TO BE JUST BEYOND THIS TAF
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...TURNING SOUTHWEST TO WEST TOMORROW.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 310146
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
846 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...

NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
EAST OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE WARM FRONT POSITIONED
ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WILL LIFT NORTH
INTO THE MID SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE MID SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A TYPICAL EARLY TO MID SPRING PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER THE
LOWER 48 THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOLLOWING A SUNNY DAY TODAY...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY AND
LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT THAT DROPPED THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH LATE SUNDAY
EVENING WAS STALLED ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT...RETURNING 50S
AND 60S DEWPOINTS TO THE MIDSOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE WARM SECTOR...MAIN
SOUTH OF A JONESBORO AR TO JACKSON TN LINE. GFS PROGS BOUNDARY
LAYER CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

THURSDAY/S RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE MORE IN QUESTION...AND WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH OF PREFRONTAL/WARM SECTOR CAPPING. HAVE PLACED
THURSDAY POPS NORTH OF I-40....WHERE CONVECTIVE CAP SHOULD BE WEAKEST.

12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS WERE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY 80 TO 100 METER 500MB HEIGHT FALLS AND MAY PROVIDE THE MIDSOUTH
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEK.

DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY....WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF SET

VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT BEFORE
DAWN MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI SO INTRODUCED VCTS AT TUP.
BETTER THREAT FOR STORMS APPEARS TO BE JUST BEYOND THIS TAF
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...TURNING SOUTHWEST TO WEST TOMORROW.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 310137
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
936 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...OVERALL...A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A BIT WARMER LOW
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  ALL ON TRACK IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST...WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             41  73  49  73 /   0  20  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  38  70  45  69 /   0   0  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       38  71  45  69 /   0  10  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              34  68  39  67 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 310137
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
936 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...OVERALL...A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A BIT WARMER LOW
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  ALL ON TRACK IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST...WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             41  73  49  73 /   0  20  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  38  70  45  69 /   0   0  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       38  71  45  69 /   0  10  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              34  68  39  67 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 310137
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
936 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...OVERALL...A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A BIT WARMER LOW
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  ALL ON TRACK IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST...WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             41  73  49  73 /   0  20  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  38  70  45  69 /   0   0  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       38  71  45  69 /   0  10  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              34  68  39  67 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMRX 310137
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
936 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...OVERALL...A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A BIT WARMER LOW
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  ALL ON TRACK IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST...WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             41  73  49  73 /   0  20  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  38  70  45  69 /   0   0  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       38  71  45  69 /   0  10  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              34  68  39  67 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOHX 310011
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
711 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...

00Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL START TO CREEP IN LATE
TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LOWS THIS MORNING WERE IN THE 40S ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH
TEMPS AT EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE 60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT CAME THROUGH OVERNIGHT
HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF MY CWA. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS 1021 MBAR
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE SO
EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S ONCE AGAIN BUT COULD SEE A FEW MID AND
UPPER 30S ALONG THE PLATEAU. SURFACE HIGH SLIPS EASTWARD LATE
TONIGHT WITH WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM ARKANSAS DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY 12Z TUESDAY. WARM FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSED DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALSO...ON TUESDAY A
SURFACE LOW WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE MID WEST AND INTO WEST
VIRGINIA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WESTWARD NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AT
18Z THEN DOWN ALONG THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER BY 00Z. POTENTIAL
EXIST FOR STRONG STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE MID STATE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS HUGGING
THE ALABAMA BORDER FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z TUESDAY EVENING. MID STATE
WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO 90 TO 100 KNOT UPPER JETS...ONE JUST TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND THE OTHER JUST OUR NORTHEAST. MOISTURE IS VERY
LIMITED BUT A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
AT THE SURFACE. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. FRONT
GETS SOUTH OF THE MID STATE TUESDAY EVENING AFTER 03Z. A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING UP INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S. CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE THIS WAY ON
THURSDAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOMING LIKELY BY
FRIDAY. WEEKEND LOOKS NICE A 1030 MBAR SURFACE HIGH BUILDS THIS
WAY CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPS DO BACK OFF INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KOHX 310011
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
711 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...

00Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL START TO CREEP IN LATE
TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LOWS THIS MORNING WERE IN THE 40S ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH
TEMPS AT EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE 60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT CAME THROUGH OVERNIGHT
HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF MY CWA. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS 1021 MBAR
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE SO
EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S ONCE AGAIN BUT COULD SEE A FEW MID AND
UPPER 30S ALONG THE PLATEAU. SURFACE HIGH SLIPS EASTWARD LATE
TONIGHT WITH WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM ARKANSAS DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY 12Z TUESDAY. WARM FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSED DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALSO...ON TUESDAY A
SURFACE LOW WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE MID WEST AND INTO WEST
VIRGINIA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WESTWARD NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AT
18Z THEN DOWN ALONG THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER BY 00Z. POTENTIAL
EXIST FOR STRONG STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE MID STATE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS HUGGING
THE ALABAMA BORDER FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z TUESDAY EVENING. MID STATE
WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO 90 TO 100 KNOT UPPER JETS...ONE JUST TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND THE OTHER JUST OUR NORTHEAST. MOISTURE IS VERY
LIMITED BUT A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
AT THE SURFACE. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. FRONT
GETS SOUTH OF THE MID STATE TUESDAY EVENING AFTER 03Z. A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING UP INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S. CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE THIS WAY ON
THURSDAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOMING LIKELY BY
FRIDAY. WEEKEND LOOKS NICE A 1030 MBAR SURFACE HIGH BUILDS THIS
WAY CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPS DO BACK OFF INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KOHX 310011
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
711 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...

00Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL START TO CREEP IN LATE
TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LOWS THIS MORNING WERE IN THE 40S ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH
TEMPS AT EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE 60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT CAME THROUGH OVERNIGHT
HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF MY CWA. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS 1021 MBAR
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE SO
EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S ONCE AGAIN BUT COULD SEE A FEW MID AND
UPPER 30S ALONG THE PLATEAU. SURFACE HIGH SLIPS EASTWARD LATE
TONIGHT WITH WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM ARKANSAS DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY 12Z TUESDAY. WARM FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSED DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALSO...ON TUESDAY A
SURFACE LOW WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE MID WEST AND INTO WEST
VIRGINIA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WESTWARD NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AT
18Z THEN DOWN ALONG THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER BY 00Z. POTENTIAL
EXIST FOR STRONG STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE MID STATE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS HUGGING
THE ALABAMA BORDER FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z TUESDAY EVENING. MID STATE
WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO 90 TO 100 KNOT UPPER JETS...ONE JUST TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND THE OTHER JUST OUR NORTHEAST. MOISTURE IS VERY
LIMITED BUT A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
AT THE SURFACE. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. FRONT
GETS SOUTH OF THE MID STATE TUESDAY EVENING AFTER 03Z. A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING UP INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S. CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE THIS WAY ON
THURSDAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOMING LIKELY BY
FRIDAY. WEEKEND LOOKS NICE A 1030 MBAR SURFACE HIGH BUILDS THIS
WAY CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPS DO BACK OFF INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06





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