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000
FXUS64 KMEG 271755
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1255 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE
FILTERED IN FROM THE EAST OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RD OF THE MIDSOUTH. SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS
REMAIN ALONG THE KY/MO BORDERS WHICH IS PROBABLY WHERE ANY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD DEVELOP. WILL ADD A SMALL POP ACROSS
THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 80S ON
THEIR WAY TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

SJM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S BUT WILL NOT
FEEL AS BAD THANKS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS THAT HAVE FILTERED INTO THE
AREA. LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO CARRY POPS IN THE FORECAST.

BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR AN
UPPER TROF TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROF
WILL BRING DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION WILL
KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT EAST BY MONDAY ALLOWING FOR THE UPPER
RIDGE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL JUMP BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S. CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOG MAY DEVELOP
TONIGHT NEAR MKL...JBR...AND TUP. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE EAST TODAY...LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 271755
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1255 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE
FILTERED IN FROM THE EAST OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RD OF THE MIDSOUTH. SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS
REMAIN ALONG THE KY/MO BORDERS WHICH IS PROBABLY WHERE ANY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD DEVELOP. WILL ADD A SMALL POP ACROSS
THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 80S ON
THEIR WAY TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

SJM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S BUT WILL NOT
FEEL AS BAD THANKS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS THAT HAVE FILTERED INTO THE
AREA. LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO CARRY POPS IN THE FORECAST.

BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR AN
UPPER TROF TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROF
WILL BRING DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION WILL
KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT EAST BY MONDAY ALLOWING FOR THE UPPER
RIDGE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL JUMP BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S. CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOG MAY DEVELOP
TONIGHT NEAR MKL...JBR...AND TUP. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE EAST TODAY...LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMRX 271734
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
134 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
THE SMOKIES TO SW NC COUNTIES. VERY LITTLE CLOUDS NOTED NEAR TRI
VICINITY WHERE AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE DRY.

EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT. I DID ALLOW FOR BRIEF MVFR AT TRI
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...DUE TO FOG. ANY CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO PLATEAU AND MOUNTAINS...WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
ALOFT...SO KEPT TAF SITES VFR AND DRY WITH A FEW TO SCATTERED
CUMULUS CLOUDS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG



000
FXUS64 KMRX 271734
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
134 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
THE SMOKIES TO SW NC COUNTIES. VERY LITTLE CLOUDS NOTED NEAR TRI
VICINITY WHERE AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE DRY.

EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT. I DID ALLOW FOR BRIEF MVFR AT TRI
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...DUE TO FOG. ANY CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO PLATEAU AND MOUNTAINS...WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
ALOFT...SO KEPT TAF SITES VFR AND DRY WITH A FEW TO SCATTERED
CUMULUS CLOUDS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMEG 271601
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1101 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE
FILTERED IN FROM THE EAST OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RD OF THE MIDSOUTH. SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS
REMAIN ALONG THE KY/MO BORDERS WHICH IS PROBABLY WHERE ANY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD DEVELOP. WILL ADD A SMALL POP ACROSS
THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 80S ON
THEIR WAY TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S BUT WILL NOT
FEEL AS BAD THANKS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS THAT HAVE FILTERED INTO THE
AREA. LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO CARRY POPS IN THE FORECAST.

BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR AN
UPPER TROF TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROF
WILL BRING DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION WILL
KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT EAST BY MONDAY ALLOWING FOR THE UPPER
RIDGE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL JUMP BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S. CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY
AREAS OF FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING BUT MAY REDEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
TODAY...LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 271601
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1101 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE
FILTERED IN FROM THE EAST OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RD OF THE MIDSOUTH. SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS
REMAIN ALONG THE KY/MO BORDERS WHICH IS PROBABLY WHERE ANY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD DEVELOP. WILL ADD A SMALL POP ACROSS
THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 80S ON
THEIR WAY TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S BUT WILL NOT
FEEL AS BAD THANKS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS THAT HAVE FILTERED INTO THE
AREA. LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO CARRY POPS IN THE FORECAST.

BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR AN
UPPER TROF TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROF
WILL BRING DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION WILL
KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT EAST BY MONDAY ALLOWING FOR THE UPPER
RIDGE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL JUMP BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S. CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY
AREAS OF FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING BUT MAY REDEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
TODAY...LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 271601
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1101 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE
FILTERED IN FROM THE EAST OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RD OF THE MIDSOUTH. SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS
REMAIN ALONG THE KY/MO BORDERS WHICH IS PROBABLY WHERE ANY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD DEVELOP. WILL ADD A SMALL POP ACROSS
THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 80S ON
THEIR WAY TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S BUT WILL NOT
FEEL AS BAD THANKS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS THAT HAVE FILTERED INTO THE
AREA. LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO CARRY POPS IN THE FORECAST.

BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR AN
UPPER TROF TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROF
WILL BRING DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION WILL
KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT EAST BY MONDAY ALLOWING FOR THE UPPER
RIDGE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL JUMP BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S. CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY
AREAS OF FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING BUT MAY REDEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
TODAY...LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 271601
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1101 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE
FILTERED IN FROM THE EAST OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RD OF THE MIDSOUTH. SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS
REMAIN ALONG THE KY/MO BORDERS WHICH IS PROBABLY WHERE ANY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD DEVELOP. WILL ADD A SMALL POP ACROSS
THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 80S ON
THEIR WAY TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S BUT WILL NOT
FEEL AS BAD THANKS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS THAT HAVE FILTERED INTO THE
AREA. LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO CARRY POPS IN THE FORECAST.

BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR AN
UPPER TROF TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROF
WILL BRING DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION WILL
KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT EAST BY MONDAY ALLOWING FOR THE UPPER
RIDGE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL JUMP BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S. CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY
AREAS OF FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING BUT MAY REDEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
TODAY...LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$






  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOHX 271516
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1016 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT UNDERWAY ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF THE MID STATE
AND THE PLATEAU ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS. TEMPERATURES
RISING QUICKLY AND CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 70S EAST TO MID 80S
ELSEWHERE. DEWPOINT CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WILL MIX
OUT SOME OVER EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL
ANTICIPATING A HOT AND HUMID DAY ON TAP FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM OVER NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
PRESENT...AND ADJUSTED POPS SOMEWHAT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR
MODEL.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
MORELESS A REPEAT OF THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH CONVECTION TODAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR
14-15Z LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN
AGAIN OVERNIGHT CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO
IFR CSV/CKV 06-13Z THU.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPPER RIDGING IN CONTROL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
FEATURE IS LARGE ENOUGH TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER AND A LIGHT NE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD SE TOWARD
NRN FL WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NW ACROSS TN. ALL OF THIS RIDGING
WILL ACT TO IMPEDE ANY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY INFLUENCE. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS SHOW VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR TODAY. BUT...WE
DO SEE AN INCREASE IN CAPE VALUES ON THU AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS
ACROSS THE NORTH ONLY. SO...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. FURTHERMORE...THE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME AFT
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE KY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN DICTATES THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SE.
THEREFORE...MAY NEED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TODAY AS WELL. WILL LEAN TOWARD ISC AND
CURRENT GRIDS FOR A FINAL DECISION.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S...LOWS LOWER 70S...COOLER PLATEAU.

IN THE EXT FCST...SHORTWAVE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NATIONS INTERIOR
THIS WEEKEND. WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A MORE UNIFORM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS BACK
ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NE AND
NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE MID STATE...CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THE GFS ACTUALLY EMPHASIZES AN UPSTREAM
IMPULSE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY FOR SAT NT. SO...ALL IN ALL... POPS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE SAT THROUGH MON PERIOD.
THEREAFTER...W-E UPPER RIDGING WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH WITH POPS ON THE DOWNSWING.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TO CONTINUE EVEN THOUGH
RIDGING BACKS OFF DURING THE SAT THROUGH MON PERIOD. HEIGHTS
REMAIN ON THE ELEVATED SIDE.

21

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55







000
FXUS64 KOHX 271516
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1016 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT UNDERWAY ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF THE MID STATE
AND THE PLATEAU ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS. TEMPERATURES
RISING QUICKLY AND CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 70S EAST TO MID 80S
ELSEWHERE. DEWPOINT CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WILL MIX
OUT SOME OVER EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL
ANTICIPATING A HOT AND HUMID DAY ON TAP FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM OVER NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
PRESENT...AND ADJUSTED POPS SOMEWHAT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR
MODEL.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
MORELESS A REPEAT OF THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH CONVECTION TODAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR
14-15Z LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN
AGAIN OVERNIGHT CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO
IFR CSV/CKV 06-13Z THU.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPPER RIDGING IN CONTROL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
FEATURE IS LARGE ENOUGH TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER AND A LIGHT NE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD SE TOWARD
NRN FL WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NW ACROSS TN. ALL OF THIS RIDGING
WILL ACT TO IMPEDE ANY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY INFLUENCE. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS SHOW VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR TODAY. BUT...WE
DO SEE AN INCREASE IN CAPE VALUES ON THU AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS
ACROSS THE NORTH ONLY. SO...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. FURTHERMORE...THE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME AFT
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE KY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN DICTATES THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SE.
THEREFORE...MAY NEED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TODAY AS WELL. WILL LEAN TOWARD ISC AND
CURRENT GRIDS FOR A FINAL DECISION.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S...LOWS LOWER 70S...COOLER PLATEAU.

IN THE EXT FCST...SHORTWAVE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NATIONS INTERIOR
THIS WEEKEND. WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A MORE UNIFORM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS BACK
ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NE AND
NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE MID STATE...CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THE GFS ACTUALLY EMPHASIZES AN UPSTREAM
IMPULSE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY FOR SAT NT. SO...ALL IN ALL... POPS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE SAT THROUGH MON PERIOD.
THEREAFTER...W-E UPPER RIDGING WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH WITH POPS ON THE DOWNSWING.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TO CONTINUE EVEN THOUGH
RIDGING BACKS OFF DURING THE SAT THROUGH MON PERIOD. HEIGHTS
REMAIN ON THE ELEVATED SIDE.

21

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55







000
FXUS64 KOHX 271516
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1016 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT UNDERWAY ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF THE MID STATE
AND THE PLATEAU ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS. TEMPERATURES
RISING QUICKLY AND CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 70S EAST TO MID 80S
ELSEWHERE. DEWPOINT CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WILL MIX
OUT SOME OVER EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL
ANTICIPATING A HOT AND HUMID DAY ON TAP FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM OVER NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
PRESENT...AND ADJUSTED POPS SOMEWHAT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR
MODEL.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
MORELESS A REPEAT OF THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH CONVECTION TODAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR
14-15Z LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN
AGAIN OVERNIGHT CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO
IFR CSV/CKV 06-13Z THU.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPPER RIDGING IN CONTROL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
FEATURE IS LARGE ENOUGH TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER AND A LIGHT NE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD SE TOWARD
NRN FL WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NW ACROSS TN. ALL OF THIS RIDGING
WILL ACT TO IMPEDE ANY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY INFLUENCE. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS SHOW VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR TODAY. BUT...WE
DO SEE AN INCREASE IN CAPE VALUES ON THU AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS
ACROSS THE NORTH ONLY. SO...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. FURTHERMORE...THE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME AFT
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE KY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN DICTATES THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SE.
THEREFORE...MAY NEED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TODAY AS WELL. WILL LEAN TOWARD ISC AND
CURRENT GRIDS FOR A FINAL DECISION.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S...LOWS LOWER 70S...COOLER PLATEAU.

IN THE EXT FCST...SHORTWAVE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NATIONS INTERIOR
THIS WEEKEND. WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A MORE UNIFORM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS BACK
ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NE AND
NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE MID STATE...CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THE GFS ACTUALLY EMPHASIZES AN UPSTREAM
IMPULSE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY FOR SAT NT. SO...ALL IN ALL... POPS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE SAT THROUGH MON PERIOD.
THEREAFTER...W-E UPPER RIDGING WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH WITH POPS ON THE DOWNSWING.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TO CONTINUE EVEN THOUGH
RIDGING BACKS OFF DURING THE SAT THROUGH MON PERIOD. HEIGHTS
REMAIN ON THE ELEVATED SIDE.

21

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55







000
FXUS64 KOHX 271516
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1016 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT UNDERWAY ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF THE MID STATE
AND THE PLATEAU ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS. TEMPERATURES
RISING QUICKLY AND CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 70S EAST TO MID 80S
ELSEWHERE. DEWPOINT CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WILL MIX
OUT SOME OVER EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL
ANTICIPATING A HOT AND HUMID DAY ON TAP FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM OVER NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
PRESENT...AND ADJUSTED POPS SOMEWHAT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR
MODEL.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
MORELESS A REPEAT OF THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH CONVECTION TODAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR
14-15Z LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN
AGAIN OVERNIGHT CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO
IFR CSV/CKV 06-13Z THU.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPPER RIDGING IN CONTROL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
FEATURE IS LARGE ENOUGH TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER AND A LIGHT NE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD SE TOWARD
NRN FL WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NW ACROSS TN. ALL OF THIS RIDGING
WILL ACT TO IMPEDE ANY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY INFLUENCE. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS SHOW VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR TODAY. BUT...WE
DO SEE AN INCREASE IN CAPE VALUES ON THU AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS
ACROSS THE NORTH ONLY. SO...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. FURTHERMORE...THE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME AFT
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE KY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN DICTATES THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SE.
THEREFORE...MAY NEED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TODAY AS WELL. WILL LEAN TOWARD ISC AND
CURRENT GRIDS FOR A FINAL DECISION.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S...LOWS LOWER 70S...COOLER PLATEAU.

IN THE EXT FCST...SHORTWAVE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NATIONS INTERIOR
THIS WEEKEND. WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A MORE UNIFORM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS BACK
ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NE AND
NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE MID STATE...CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THE GFS ACTUALLY EMPHASIZES AN UPSTREAM
IMPULSE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY FOR SAT NT. SO...ALL IN ALL... POPS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE SAT THROUGH MON PERIOD.
THEREAFTER...W-E UPPER RIDGING WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH WITH POPS ON THE DOWNSWING.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TO CONTINUE EVEN THOUGH
RIDGING BACKS OFF DURING THE SAT THROUGH MON PERIOD. HEIGHTS
REMAIN ON THE ELEVATED SIDE.

21

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55







000
FXUS64 KMRX 271345
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
945 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS GOING FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. 12Z SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW)...WHILE THE 12Z RNK
SOUNDING HAD LESS THAN 1/2 INCH OF PW. DEW POINT TEMPS HOLDING IN
THE 50S ACROSS SW VA AND NE TN. FORECAST GRIDS LOOK ON TRACK WITH NO
UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION...EXCEPT
FOR PERHAPS SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. MORE ON THIS
IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             91  65  93  68 /   0  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  88  65  91  66 /   0  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       89  65  92  66 /   0  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              87  60  89  60 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG



000
FXUS64 KMRX 271345
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
945 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS GOING FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. 12Z SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW)...WHILE THE 12Z RNK
SOUNDING HAD LESS THAN 1/2 INCH OF PW. DEW POINT TEMPS HOLDING IN
THE 50S ACROSS SW VA AND NE TN. FORECAST GRIDS LOOK ON TRACK WITH NO
UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION...EXCEPT
FOR PERHAPS SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. MORE ON THIS
IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             91  65  93  68 /   0  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  88  65  91  66 /   0  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       89  65  92  66 /   0  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              87  60  89  60 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 271124
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
724 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE AREA WEATHER WITH
FAIR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. COULD BE TEMPORARY MVFR
AT TRI EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OTHERWISE ALL SITES VFR.


THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 271124
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
724 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE AREA WEATHER WITH
FAIR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. COULD BE TEMPORARY MVFR
AT TRI EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OTHERWISE ALL SITES VFR.


THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD



000
FXUS64 KMEG 271120
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
620 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S BUT WILL NOT
FEEL AS BAD THANKS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS THAT HAVE FILTERED INTO THE
AREA. LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO CARRY POPS IN THE FORECAST.

BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR AN
UPPER TROF TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROF
WILL BRING DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION WILL
KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT EAST BY MONDAY ALLOWING FOR THE UPPER
RIDGE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL JUMP BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S. CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY
AREAS OF FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING BUT MAY REDEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
TODAY...LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 271120
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
620 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S BUT WILL NOT
FEEL AS BAD THANKS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS THAT HAVE FILTERED INTO THE
AREA. LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO CARRY POPS IN THE FORECAST.

BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR AN
UPPER TROF TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROF
WILL BRING DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION WILL
KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT EAST BY MONDAY ALLOWING FOR THE UPPER
RIDGE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL JUMP BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S. CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY
AREAS OF FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING BUT MAY REDEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
TODAY...LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 271026
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
526 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MORELESS A REPEAT OF THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH CONVECTION TODAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR
14-15Z LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN
AGAIN OVERNIGHT CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO
IFR CSV/CKV 06-13Z THU.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR AT ISSUANCE BUT THIS LIKELY WON`T HOLD UP AFTER 07Z AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND WINDS HAVE GONE CALM. IFR TO LIFR
VIS AT KCSV AND KCKV WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 08Z AND SHOULD CLEAR
BACK TO VFR BY 14Z. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF MID-STATE
ON WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.

UNGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...EARLIER CONVECTION OVER NW MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS EXITED
AND SKIES ACROSS THE REGION HAS GONE MOSTLY CLEAR. SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS SITUATED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE MID STATE, SO LOOK FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOURLY GRIDS ARE
HOLDING UP WELL AT THIS POINT, SO NO FORECAST CHANGES ARE BEING
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07






000
FXUS64 KOHX 271026
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
526 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MORELESS A REPEAT OF THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH CONVECTION TODAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR
14-15Z LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN
AGAIN OVERNIGHT CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO
IFR CSV/CKV 06-13Z THU.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR AT ISSUANCE BUT THIS LIKELY WON`T HOLD UP AFTER 07Z AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND WINDS HAVE GONE CALM. IFR TO LIFR
VIS AT KCSV AND KCKV WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 08Z AND SHOULD CLEAR
BACK TO VFR BY 14Z. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF MID-STATE
ON WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.

UNGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...EARLIER CONVECTION OVER NW MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS EXITED
AND SKIES ACROSS THE REGION HAS GONE MOSTLY CLEAR. SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS SITUATED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE MID STATE, SO LOOK FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOURLY GRIDS ARE
HOLDING UP WELL AT THIS POINT, SO NO FORECAST CHANGES ARE BEING
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KOHX 271026
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
526 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MORELESS A REPEAT OF THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH CONVECTION TODAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR
14-15Z LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN
AGAIN OVERNIGHT CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO
IFR CSV/CKV 06-13Z THU.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR AT ISSUANCE BUT THIS LIKELY WON`T HOLD UP AFTER 07Z AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND WINDS HAVE GONE CALM. IFR TO LIFR
VIS AT KCSV AND KCKV WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 08Z AND SHOULD CLEAR
BACK TO VFR BY 14Z. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF MID-STATE
ON WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.

UNGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...EARLIER CONVECTION OVER NW MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS EXITED
AND SKIES ACROSS THE REGION HAS GONE MOSTLY CLEAR. SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS SITUATED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE MID STATE, SO LOOK FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOURLY GRIDS ARE
HOLDING UP WELL AT THIS POINT, SO NO FORECAST CHANGES ARE BEING
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07






000
FXUS64 KOHX 271026
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
526 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MORELESS A REPEAT OF THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH CONVECTION TODAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR
14-15Z LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN
AGAIN OVERNIGHT CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO
IFR CSV/CKV 06-13Z THU.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR AT ISSUANCE BUT THIS LIKELY WON`T HOLD UP AFTER 07Z AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND WINDS HAVE GONE CALM. IFR TO LIFR
VIS AT KCSV AND KCKV WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 08Z AND SHOULD CLEAR
BACK TO VFR BY 14Z. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF MID-STATE
ON WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.

UNGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...EARLIER CONVECTION OVER NW MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS EXITED
AND SKIES ACROSS THE REGION HAS GONE MOSTLY CLEAR. SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS SITUATED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE MID STATE, SO LOOK FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOURLY GRIDS ARE
HOLDING UP WELL AT THIS POINT, SO NO FORECAST CHANGES ARE BEING
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KOHX 270845
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
345 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING IN CONTROL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
FEATURE IS LARGE ENOUGH TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER AND A LIGHT NE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD SE TOWARD
NRN FL WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NW ACROSS TN. ALL OF THIS RIDGING
WILL ACT TO IMPEDE ANY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY INFLUENCE. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS SHOW VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR TODAY. BUT...WE
DO SEE AN INCREASE IN CAPE VALUES ON THU AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS
ACROSS THE NORTH ONLY. SO...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. FURTHERMORE...THE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME AFT
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE KY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN DICTATES THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SE.
THEREFORE...MAY NEED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TODAY AS WELL. WILL LEAN TOWARD ISC AND
CURRENT GRIDS FOR A FINAL DECISION.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S...LOWS LOWER 70S...COOLER PLATEAU.

IN THE EXT FCST...SHORTWAVE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NATIONS INTERIOR
THIS WEEKEND. WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A MORE UNIFORM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS BACK
ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NE AND
NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE MID STATE...CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THE GFS ACTUALLY EMPHASIZES AN UPSTREAM
IMPULSE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY FOR SAT NT. SO...ALL IN ALL... POPS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE SAT THROUGH MON PERIOD.
THEREAFTER...W-E UPPER RIDGING WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH WITH POPS ON THE DOWNSWING.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TO CONTINUE EVEN THOUGH
RIDGING BACKS OFF DURING THE SAT THROUGH MON PERIOD. HEIGHTS
REMAIN ON THE ELEVATED SIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      92  72  94  72 /  05  05  20  05
CLARKSVILLE    93  69  94  69 /  10  05  20  10
CROSSVILLE     86  65  89  67 /  05   0  20  05
COLUMBIA       92  70  94  70 /   0  05  10  05
LAWRENCEBURG   92  66  94  67 /   0  05  10  05
WAVERLY        93  69  94  69 /  10  05  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KOHX 270845
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
345 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING IN CONTROL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
FEATURE IS LARGE ENOUGH TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER AND A LIGHT NE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD SE TOWARD
NRN FL WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NW ACROSS TN. ALL OF THIS RIDGING
WILL ACT TO IMPEDE ANY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY INFLUENCE. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS SHOW VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR TODAY. BUT...WE
DO SEE AN INCREASE IN CAPE VALUES ON THU AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS
ACROSS THE NORTH ONLY. SO...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. FURTHERMORE...THE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME AFT
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE KY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN DICTATES THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SE.
THEREFORE...MAY NEED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TODAY AS WELL. WILL LEAN TOWARD ISC AND
CURRENT GRIDS FOR A FINAL DECISION.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S...LOWS LOWER 70S...COOLER PLATEAU.

IN THE EXT FCST...SHORTWAVE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NATIONS INTERIOR
THIS WEEKEND. WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A MORE UNIFORM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS BACK
ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NE AND
NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE MID STATE...CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THE GFS ACTUALLY EMPHASIZES AN UPSTREAM
IMPULSE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY FOR SAT NT. SO...ALL IN ALL... POPS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE SAT THROUGH MON PERIOD.
THEREAFTER...W-E UPPER RIDGING WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH WITH POPS ON THE DOWNSWING.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TO CONTINUE EVEN THOUGH
RIDGING BACKS OFF DURING THE SAT THROUGH MON PERIOD. HEIGHTS
REMAIN ON THE ELEVATED SIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      92  72  94  72 /  05  05  20  05
CLARKSVILLE    93  69  94  69 /  10  05  20  10
CROSSVILLE     86  65  89  67 /  05   0  20  05
COLUMBIA       92  70  94  70 /   0  05  10  05
LAWRENCEBURG   92  66  94  67 /   0  05  10  05
WAVERLY        93  69  94  69 /  10  05  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KMRX 270733
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
333 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...UPPER RIDGE HOLDS STRONG ACROSS
THE EASTERN TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ONE MORE DAY WITH NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ABOUT THE
SAME AS YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NE SECTIONS AND
MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH LOWER ELEVATIONS.
CHATTANOOGA IS THE EXCEPTION AS TEMPERATURES STILL AROUND 70. HIGHS
TUESDAY ONLY REACHED THE MID TO UPPER 80S WHICH WAS ABOUT THE SAME
AS MONDAY. DRIER AIR MASS AND LOWER DEW POINTS SHOULD CONTINUE ONE
MORE DAY AND NIGHT BEFORE RISING THURSDAY. ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN A FEW
DEGREES BUT STILL SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TUESDAY WHERE NAM GUIDANCE
WAS CLOSER TO ACTUAL HIGHS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS CREEP UP A FEW
DEGREES. ALSO COULD BE MORE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AS WEAK
FRONT SINKS SOUTH OVERNIGHT FROM OHIO VALLEY. NAM MODEL PUTS SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER SW VA TONIGHT WITH APPROACH OF FRONT BUT OTHER
MODELS KEEP IT DRY. PREFER TO KEEP THINGS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...BY THURSDAY THE
UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A RATHER DIFFUSE WEAK BOUNDARY SETS UP
ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE FLOW...SOUTHERLY IN THE SOUTH AND
WEAK NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD LEAD TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE DIURNAL SO THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO END AROUND SUNSET.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY. WHILE THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...WE SHOULD WATCH THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
THAT DEVELOP OVER THE LA COAST. THESE WILL TRACK ACROSS MS/AL AND
EVENTUALLY INTO TN ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SO
EXPECT INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES
BACK INTO THE TN VALLEY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE
STRONGEST SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MID DAY WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS.

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS THROUGH
TUESDAY. OVERALL MAV MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE NEAR-TERM APPEAR TOO
WARM AND PREFERRED THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET MOS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             91  65  93  68 /   0  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  88  65  91  66 /   0  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       89  65  92  66 /   0  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              87  60  89  60 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD/AC




000
FXUS64 KMRX 270733
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
333 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...UPPER RIDGE HOLDS STRONG ACROSS
THE EASTERN TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ONE MORE DAY WITH NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ABOUT THE
SAME AS YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NE SECTIONS AND
MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH LOWER ELEVATIONS.
CHATTANOOGA IS THE EXCEPTION AS TEMPERATURES STILL AROUND 70. HIGHS
TUESDAY ONLY REACHED THE MID TO UPPER 80S WHICH WAS ABOUT THE SAME
AS MONDAY. DRIER AIR MASS AND LOWER DEW POINTS SHOULD CONTINUE ONE
MORE DAY AND NIGHT BEFORE RISING THURSDAY. ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN A FEW
DEGREES BUT STILL SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TUESDAY WHERE NAM GUIDANCE
WAS CLOSER TO ACTUAL HIGHS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS CREEP UP A FEW
DEGREES. ALSO COULD BE MORE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AS WEAK
FRONT SINKS SOUTH OVERNIGHT FROM OHIO VALLEY. NAM MODEL PUTS SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER SW VA TONIGHT WITH APPROACH OF FRONT BUT OTHER
MODELS KEEP IT DRY. PREFER TO KEEP THINGS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...BY THURSDAY THE
UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A RATHER DIFFUSE WEAK BOUNDARY SETS UP
ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE FLOW...SOUTHERLY IN THE SOUTH AND
WEAK NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD LEAD TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE DIURNAL SO THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO END AROUND SUNSET.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY. WHILE THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...WE SHOULD WATCH THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
THAT DEVELOP OVER THE LA COAST. THESE WILL TRACK ACROSS MS/AL AND
EVENTUALLY INTO TN ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SO
EXPECT INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES
BACK INTO THE TN VALLEY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE
STRONGEST SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MID DAY WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS.

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS THROUGH
TUESDAY. OVERALL MAV MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE NEAR-TERM APPEAR TOO
WARM AND PREFERRED THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET MOS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             91  65  93  68 /   0  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  88  65  91  66 /   0  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       89  65  92  66 /   0  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              87  60  89  60 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD/AC




000
FXUS64 KMRX 270733
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
333 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...UPPER RIDGE HOLDS STRONG ACROSS
THE EASTERN TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ONE MORE DAY WITH NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ABOUT THE
SAME AS YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NE SECTIONS AND
MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH LOWER ELEVATIONS.
CHATTANOOGA IS THE EXCEPTION AS TEMPERATURES STILL AROUND 70. HIGHS
TUESDAY ONLY REACHED THE MID TO UPPER 80S WHICH WAS ABOUT THE SAME
AS MONDAY. DRIER AIR MASS AND LOWER DEW POINTS SHOULD CONTINUE ONE
MORE DAY AND NIGHT BEFORE RISING THURSDAY. ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN A FEW
DEGREES BUT STILL SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TUESDAY WHERE NAM GUIDANCE
WAS CLOSER TO ACTUAL HIGHS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS CREEP UP A FEW
DEGREES. ALSO COULD BE MORE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AS WEAK
FRONT SINKS SOUTH OVERNIGHT FROM OHIO VALLEY. NAM MODEL PUTS SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER SW VA TONIGHT WITH APPROACH OF FRONT BUT OTHER
MODELS KEEP IT DRY. PREFER TO KEEP THINGS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...BY THURSDAY THE
UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A RATHER DIFFUSE WEAK BOUNDARY SETS UP
ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE FLOW...SOUTHERLY IN THE SOUTH AND
WEAK NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD LEAD TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE DIURNAL SO THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO END AROUND SUNSET.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY. WHILE THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...WE SHOULD WATCH THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
THAT DEVELOP OVER THE LA COAST. THESE WILL TRACK ACROSS MS/AL AND
EVENTUALLY INTO TN ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SO
EXPECT INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES
BACK INTO THE TN VALLEY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE
STRONGEST SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MID DAY WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS.

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS THROUGH
TUESDAY. OVERALL MAV MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE NEAR-TERM APPEAR TOO
WARM AND PREFERRED THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET MOS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             91  65  93  68 /   0  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  88  65  91  66 /   0  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       89  65  92  66 /   0  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              87  60  89  60 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD/AC




000
FXUS64 KMRX 270733
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
333 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...UPPER RIDGE HOLDS STRONG ACROSS
THE EASTERN TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ONE MORE DAY WITH NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ABOUT THE
SAME AS YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NE SECTIONS AND
MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH LOWER ELEVATIONS.
CHATTANOOGA IS THE EXCEPTION AS TEMPERATURES STILL AROUND 70. HIGHS
TUESDAY ONLY REACHED THE MID TO UPPER 80S WHICH WAS ABOUT THE SAME
AS MONDAY. DRIER AIR MASS AND LOWER DEW POINTS SHOULD CONTINUE ONE
MORE DAY AND NIGHT BEFORE RISING THURSDAY. ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN A FEW
DEGREES BUT STILL SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TUESDAY WHERE NAM GUIDANCE
WAS CLOSER TO ACTUAL HIGHS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS CREEP UP A FEW
DEGREES. ALSO COULD BE MORE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AS WEAK
FRONT SINKS SOUTH OVERNIGHT FROM OHIO VALLEY. NAM MODEL PUTS SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER SW VA TONIGHT WITH APPROACH OF FRONT BUT OTHER
MODELS KEEP IT DRY. PREFER TO KEEP THINGS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...BY THURSDAY THE
UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A RATHER DIFFUSE WEAK BOUNDARY SETS UP
ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE FLOW...SOUTHERLY IN THE SOUTH AND
WEAK NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD LEAD TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE DIURNAL SO THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO END AROUND SUNSET.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY. WHILE THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...WE SHOULD WATCH THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
THAT DEVELOP OVER THE LA COAST. THESE WILL TRACK ACROSS MS/AL AND
EVENTUALLY INTO TN ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SO
EXPECT INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES
BACK INTO THE TN VALLEY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE
STRONGEST SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MID DAY WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS.

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS THROUGH
TUESDAY. OVERALL MAV MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE NEAR-TERM APPEAR TOO
WARM AND PREFERRED THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET MOS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             91  65  93  68 /   0  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  88  65  91  66 /   0  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       89  65  92  66 /   0  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              87  60  89  60 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD/AC




000
FXUS64 KMEG 270727
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
227 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S BUT WILL NOT
FEEL AS BAD THANKS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS THAT HAVE FILTERED INTO THE
AREA. LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO CARRY POPS IN THE FORECAST.

BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR AN
UPPER TROF TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROF
WILL BRING DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION WILL
KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT EAST BY MONDAY ALLOWING FOR THE UPPER
RIDGE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL JUMP BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S. CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LOWER
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND MAINLY FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY EVENING.



&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 270727
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
227 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S BUT WILL NOT
FEEL AS BAD THANKS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS THAT HAVE FILTERED INTO THE
AREA. LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO CARRY POPS IN THE FORECAST.

BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR AN
UPPER TROF TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROF
WILL BRING DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION WILL
KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT EAST BY MONDAY ALLOWING FOR THE UPPER
RIDGE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL JUMP BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S. CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LOWER
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND MAINLY FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY EVENING.



&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 270727
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
227 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S BUT WILL NOT
FEEL AS BAD THANKS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS THAT HAVE FILTERED INTO THE
AREA. LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO CARRY POPS IN THE FORECAST.

BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR AN
UPPER TROF TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROF
WILL BRING DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION WILL
KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT EAST BY MONDAY ALLOWING FOR THE UPPER
RIDGE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL JUMP BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S. CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LOWER
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND MAINLY FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY EVENING.



&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 270727
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
227 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S BUT WILL NOT
FEEL AS BAD THANKS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS THAT HAVE FILTERED INTO THE
AREA. LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO CARRY POPS IN THE FORECAST.

BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR AN
UPPER TROF TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROF
WILL BRING DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION WILL
KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT EAST BY MONDAY ALLOWING FOR THE UPPER
RIDGE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL JUMP BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S. CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LOWER
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND MAINLY FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY EVENING.



&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 270544
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
140 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...ONLY CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE TRI AREA.  LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TRI BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AREA WEATHER
FOR FAIR SKIES...LIGHT WIND AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD



000
FXUS64 KMRX 270544
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
140 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...ONLY CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE TRI AREA.  LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TRI BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AREA WEATHER
FOR FAIR SKIES...LIGHT WIND AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD



000
FXUS64 KMRX 270544
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
140 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...ONLY CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE TRI AREA.  LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TRI BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AREA WEATHER
FOR FAIR SKIES...LIGHT WIND AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD



000
FXUS64 KMRX 270544
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
140 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...ONLY CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE TRI AREA.  LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TRI BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AREA WEATHER
FOR FAIR SKIES...LIGHT WIND AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD



000
FXUS64 KMEG 270533
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1233 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO ADD AREAS OF FOG FOR TONIGHT. ALSO LOWERED THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR TONIGHT SLIGHTLY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TN.
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

JCL

DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 734 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...

A FEW SHOWERS WERE LOCATED NEAR PARIS TN...AND ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST AR. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
SHORTLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS FOR
THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE...OTHERWISE THE GRIDS LOOK
FINE ATTM. RESENT THE ZONE FORECASTS TO REMOVE THE REMAINDER OF
AFTERNOON PERIOD.

JCL

DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 319 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
MID SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS THAT IS STRETCHED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND RESIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SEPARATE A DRIER
AIRMASS SOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S FROM MOIST CONDITIONS
NORTH WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR RENEWED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
THURSDAY...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
MAINLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA
BY NEXT WEEKEND. DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE MID
SOUTH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BEGINNING FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN. GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL REBUILD BACK OVER THE MID SOUTH BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE SOME...A MOIST
ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT
WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LOWER
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND MAINLY FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 270533
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1233 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO ADD AREAS OF FOG FOR TONIGHT. ALSO LOWERED THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR TONIGHT SLIGHTLY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TN.
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

JCL

DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 734 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...

A FEW SHOWERS WERE LOCATED NEAR PARIS TN...AND ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST AR. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
SHORTLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS FOR
THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE...OTHERWISE THE GRIDS LOOK
FINE ATTM. RESENT THE ZONE FORECASTS TO REMOVE THE REMAINDER OF
AFTERNOON PERIOD.

JCL

DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 319 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
MID SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS THAT IS STRETCHED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND RESIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SEPARATE A DRIER
AIRMASS SOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S FROM MOIST CONDITIONS
NORTH WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR RENEWED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
THURSDAY...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
MAINLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA
BY NEXT WEEKEND. DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE MID
SOUTH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BEGINNING FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN. GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL REBUILD BACK OVER THE MID SOUTH BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE SOME...A MOIST
ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT
WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LOWER
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND MAINLY FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KOHX 270449
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1149 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR AT ISSUANCE BUT THIS LIKELY WON`T HOLD UP AFTER 07Z AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND WINDS HAVE GONE CALM. IFR TO LIFR
VIS AT KCSV AND KCKV WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 08Z AND SHOULD CLEAR
BACK TO VFR BY 14Z. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF MID-STATE
ON WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...EARLIER CONVECTION OVER NW MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS EXITED
AND SKIES ACROSS THE REGION HAS GONE MOSTLY CLEAR. SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS SITUATED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE MID STATE, SO LOOK FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOURLY GRIDS ARE
HOLDING UP WELL AT THIS POINT, SO NO FORECAST CHANGES ARE BEING
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KOHX 270449
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1149 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR AT ISSUANCE BUT THIS LIKELY WON`T HOLD UP AFTER 07Z AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND WINDS HAVE GONE CALM. IFR TO LIFR
VIS AT KCSV AND KCKV WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 08Z AND SHOULD CLEAR
BACK TO VFR BY 14Z. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF MID-STATE
ON WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...EARLIER CONVECTION OVER NW MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS EXITED
AND SKIES ACROSS THE REGION HAS GONE MOSTLY CLEAR. SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS SITUATED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE MID STATE, SO LOOK FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOURLY GRIDS ARE
HOLDING UP WELL AT THIS POINT, SO NO FORECAST CHANGES ARE BEING
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KMEG 270232 AAC
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
932 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO ADD AREAS OF FOG FOR TONIGHT. ALSO LOWERED THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR TONIGHT SLIGHTLY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TN.
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

JCL


&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 734 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...

A FEW SHOWERS WERE LOCATED NEAR PARIS TN...AND ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST AR. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
SHORTLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS FOR
THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE...OTHERWISE THE GRIDS LOOK
FINE ATTM. RESENT THE ZONE FORECASTS TO REMOVE THE REMAINDER OF
AFTERNOON PERIOD.

JCL

DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 319 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
MID SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS THAT IS STRETCHED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND RESIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SEPARATE A DRIER
AIRMASS SOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S FROM MOIST CONDITIONS
NORTH WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR RENEWED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
THURSDAY...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
MAINLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA
BY NEXT WEEKEND. DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE MID
SOUTH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BEGINNING FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN. GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL REBUILD BACK OVER THE MID SOUTH BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE SOME...A MOIST
ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT
WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH THE KMEM AREA BEFORE
SUNSET. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES. A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE EAST TONIGHT AND
THEN INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 270222
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
922 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...EARLIER CONVECTION OVER NW MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS EXITED
AND SKIES ACROSS THE REGION HAS GONE MOSTLY CLEAR. SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS SITUATED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE MID STATE, SO LOOK FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOURLY GRIDS ARE
HOLDING UP WELL AT THIS POINT, SO NO FORECAST CHANGES ARE BEING
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A COUPLE OF SW MOVING SHOWERS NEAR KCKV AT ISSUANCE. SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THOUGH AND END BY 01Z. BIGGEST STORY TONIGHT MIGHT BE THE FOG.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND DROPPED OFF KCKV AND KCSV TO 1/2SM BY 09Z. IN
THE END THIS MIGHT BE A TOUCH AGGRESSIVE BUT WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND CALM SFC AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...
ITS A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FLIGHT CATEGORIES RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z WEDNESDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS
AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE MID-STATE WEDNESDAY
LEAVING JUST SOME LIGHT WINDS AND SCT AFTERNOON DECKS.

UNGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS WARM AS EXPECTED
TODAY...THANKS TO A BAND OF CLOUDS THAT WAS OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE AXIS OF MOISTURE AND
WEAK CONVERGENCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO WE WILL
KEEP SMALL POPS FOR THE WEST HALF OF MID TN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EAST COAST WAS PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE EAST HALF OF
MID TN...WITH DEW POINTS 2-4 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS
DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SOME PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG FORMATION.

A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE ESE.
THIS WILL BRING A GENERALLY DRY PATTERN WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS...IN
THE 60S...AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS...MAINLY LOWER 90S. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WE WILL
CARRY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY...AND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OVER THE NORTH HIGHLAND RIM
AND PLATEAU ON THURSDAY.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE.
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A TOTAL WASHOUT...BUT THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCE
WILL BE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...BUT THE TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN SO FAR IN ADVANCE. SEVERE WX DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK INDICATES WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH AROUND 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 270222
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
922 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...EARLIER CONVECTION OVER NW MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS EXITED
AND SKIES ACROSS THE REGION HAS GONE MOSTLY CLEAR. SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS SITUATED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE MID STATE, SO LOOK FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOURLY GRIDS ARE
HOLDING UP WELL AT THIS POINT, SO NO FORECAST CHANGES ARE BEING
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A COUPLE OF SW MOVING SHOWERS NEAR KCKV AT ISSUANCE. SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THOUGH AND END BY 01Z. BIGGEST STORY TONIGHT MIGHT BE THE FOG.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND DROPPED OFF KCKV AND KCSV TO 1/2SM BY 09Z. IN
THE END THIS MIGHT BE A TOUCH AGGRESSIVE BUT WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND CALM SFC AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...
ITS A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FLIGHT CATEGORIES RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z WEDNESDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS
AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE MID-STATE WEDNESDAY
LEAVING JUST SOME LIGHT WINDS AND SCT AFTERNOON DECKS.

UNGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS WARM AS EXPECTED
TODAY...THANKS TO A BAND OF CLOUDS THAT WAS OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE AXIS OF MOISTURE AND
WEAK CONVERGENCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO WE WILL
KEEP SMALL POPS FOR THE WEST HALF OF MID TN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EAST COAST WAS PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE EAST HALF OF
MID TN...WITH DEW POINTS 2-4 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS
DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SOME PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG FORMATION.

A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE ESE.
THIS WILL BRING A GENERALLY DRY PATTERN WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS...IN
THE 60S...AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS...MAINLY LOWER 90S. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WE WILL
CARRY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY...AND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OVER THE NORTH HIGHLAND RIM
AND PLATEAU ON THURSDAY.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE.
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A TOTAL WASHOUT...BUT THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCE
WILL BE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...BUT THE TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN SO FAR IN ADVANCE. SEVERE WX DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK INDICATES WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH AROUND 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 270222
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
922 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...EARLIER CONVECTION OVER NW MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS EXITED
AND SKIES ACROSS THE REGION HAS GONE MOSTLY CLEAR. SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS SITUATED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE MID STATE, SO LOOK FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOURLY GRIDS ARE
HOLDING UP WELL AT THIS POINT, SO NO FORECAST CHANGES ARE BEING
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A COUPLE OF SW MOVING SHOWERS NEAR KCKV AT ISSUANCE. SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THOUGH AND END BY 01Z. BIGGEST STORY TONIGHT MIGHT BE THE FOG.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND DROPPED OFF KCKV AND KCSV TO 1/2SM BY 09Z. IN
THE END THIS MIGHT BE A TOUCH AGGRESSIVE BUT WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND CALM SFC AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...
ITS A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FLIGHT CATEGORIES RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z WEDNESDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS
AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE MID-STATE WEDNESDAY
LEAVING JUST SOME LIGHT WINDS AND SCT AFTERNOON DECKS.

UNGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS WARM AS EXPECTED
TODAY...THANKS TO A BAND OF CLOUDS THAT WAS OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE AXIS OF MOISTURE AND
WEAK CONVERGENCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO WE WILL
KEEP SMALL POPS FOR THE WEST HALF OF MID TN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EAST COAST WAS PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE EAST HALF OF
MID TN...WITH DEW POINTS 2-4 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS
DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SOME PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG FORMATION.

A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE ESE.
THIS WILL BRING A GENERALLY DRY PATTERN WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS...IN
THE 60S...AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS...MAINLY LOWER 90S. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WE WILL
CARRY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY...AND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OVER THE NORTH HIGHLAND RIM
AND PLATEAU ON THURSDAY.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE.
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A TOTAL WASHOUT...BUT THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCE
WILL BE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...BUT THE TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN SO FAR IN ADVANCE. SEVERE WX DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK INDICATES WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH AROUND 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 270222
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
922 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...EARLIER CONVECTION OVER NW MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS EXITED
AND SKIES ACROSS THE REGION HAS GONE MOSTLY CLEAR. SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS SITUATED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE MID STATE, SO LOOK FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOURLY GRIDS ARE
HOLDING UP WELL AT THIS POINT, SO NO FORECAST CHANGES ARE BEING
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A COUPLE OF SW MOVING SHOWERS NEAR KCKV AT ISSUANCE. SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THOUGH AND END BY 01Z. BIGGEST STORY TONIGHT MIGHT BE THE FOG.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND DROPPED OFF KCKV AND KCSV TO 1/2SM BY 09Z. IN
THE END THIS MIGHT BE A TOUCH AGGRESSIVE BUT WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND CALM SFC AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...
ITS A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FLIGHT CATEGORIES RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z WEDNESDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS
AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE MID-STATE WEDNESDAY
LEAVING JUST SOME LIGHT WINDS AND SCT AFTERNOON DECKS.

UNGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS WARM AS EXPECTED
TODAY...THANKS TO A BAND OF CLOUDS THAT WAS OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE AXIS OF MOISTURE AND
WEAK CONVERGENCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO WE WILL
KEEP SMALL POPS FOR THE WEST HALF OF MID TN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EAST COAST WAS PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE EAST HALF OF
MID TN...WITH DEW POINTS 2-4 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS
DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SOME PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG FORMATION.

A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE ESE.
THIS WILL BRING A GENERALLY DRY PATTERN WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS...IN
THE 60S...AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS...MAINLY LOWER 90S. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WE WILL
CARRY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY...AND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OVER THE NORTH HIGHLAND RIM
AND PLATEAU ON THURSDAY.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE.
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A TOTAL WASHOUT...BUT THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCE
WILL BE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...BUT THE TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN SO FAR IN ADVANCE. SEVERE WX DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK INDICATES WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH AROUND 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KMRX 270055
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
855 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER
THE MID WEST. AREA RADARS REVEAL NO CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING...DUE TO A FAIRLY DEEP MID-LEVEL STABLE LAYER AND
DRIER AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...AND WILL NOT
PLAN TO UPDATE THIS EVENING.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             65  93  64  95 /   0   0  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  90  64  93 /   0   0  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       63  91  63  93 /   0   0  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              58  87  59  91 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG



000
FXUS64 KMRX 270055
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
855 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER
THE MID WEST. AREA RADARS REVEAL NO CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING...DUE TO A FAIRLY DEEP MID-LEVEL STABLE LAYER AND
DRIER AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...AND WILL NOT
PLAN TO UPDATE THIS EVENING.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             65  93  64  95 /   0   0  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  90  64  93 /   0   0  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       63  91  63  93 /   0   0  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              58  87  59  91 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG




000
FXUS64 KMEG 270034 AAB
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
734 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...

A FEW SHOWERS WERE LOCATED NEAR PARIS TN...AND ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST AR. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
SHORTLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS FOR
THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE...OTHERWISE THE GRIDS LOOK
FINE ATTM. RESENT THE ZONE FORECASTS TO REMOVE THE REMAINDER OF
AFTERNOON PERIOD.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 319 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
MID SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS THAT IS STRETCHED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND RESIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SEPARATE A DRIER
AIRMASS SOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S FROM MOIST CONDITIONS
NORTH WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR RENEWED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
THURSDAY...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
MAINLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA
BY NEXT WEEKEND. DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE MID
SOUTH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BEGINNING FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN. GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL REBUILD BACK OVER THE MID SOUTH BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE SOME...A MOIST
ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT
WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH THE KMEM AREA BEFORE
SUNSET. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES. A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE EAST TONIGHT AND
THEN INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 262344 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
744 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY
NEAR THE TRI AREA.  THIS MAY GENERATE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
08Z AND 12Z.  OTHERWISE...STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
FOR FAIR SKIES...LIGHT WIND AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB



000
FXUS64 KMRX 262344 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
744 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY
NEAR THE TRI AREA.  THIS MAY GENERATE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
08Z AND 12Z.  OTHERWISE...STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
FOR FAIR SKIES...LIGHT WIND AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB



000
FXUS64 KMRX 262344 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
744 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY
NEAR THE TRI AREA.  THIS MAY GENERATE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
08Z AND 12Z.  OTHERWISE...STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
FOR FAIR SKIES...LIGHT WIND AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB



000
FXUS64 KMRX 262344 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
744 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY
NEAR THE TRI AREA.  THIS MAY GENERATE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
08Z AND 12Z.  OTHERWISE...STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
FOR FAIR SKIES...LIGHT WIND AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB



000
FXUS64 KMEG 262328
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
628 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
MID SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS THAT IS STRETCHED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND RESIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SEPARATE A DRIER
AIRMASS SOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S FROM MOIST CONDITIONS
NORTH WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR RENEWED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
THURSDAY...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
MAINLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA
BY NEXT WEEKEND. DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE MID
SOUTH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BEGINNING FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN. GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL REBUILD BACK OVER THE MID SOUTH BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE SOME...A MOIST
ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT
WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH THE KMEM AREA BEFORE
SUNSET. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES. A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE EAST TONIGHT AND
THEN INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 262328
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
628 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
MID SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS THAT IS STRETCHED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND RESIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SEPARATE A DRIER
AIRMASS SOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S FROM MOIST CONDITIONS
NORTH WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR RENEWED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
THURSDAY...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
MAINLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA
BY NEXT WEEKEND. DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE MID
SOUTH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BEGINNING FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN. GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL REBUILD BACK OVER THE MID SOUTH BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE SOME...A MOIST
ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT
WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH THE KMEM AREA BEFORE
SUNSET. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES. A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE EAST TONIGHT AND
THEN INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 262321
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
621 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A COUPLE OF SW MOVING SHOWERS NEAR KCKV AT ISSUANCE. SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THOUGH AND END BY 01Z. BIGGEST STORY TONIGHT MIGHT BE THE FOG.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND DROPPED OFF KCKV AND KCSV TO 1/2SM BY 09Z. IN
THE END THIS MIGHT BE A TOUCH AGGRESSIVE BUT WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND CALM SFC AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...
ITS A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FLIGHT CATEGORIES RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z WEDNESDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS
AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE MID-STATE WEDNESDAY
LEAVING JUST SOME LIGHT WINDS AND SCT AFTERNOON DECKS.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS WARM AS EXPECTED
TODAY...THANKS TO A BAND OF CLOUDS THAT WAS OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE AXIS OF MOISTURE AND
WEAK CONVERGENCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO WE WILL
KEEP SMALL POPS FOR THE WEST HALF OF MID TN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EAST COAST WAS PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE EAST HALF OF
MID TN...WITH DEW POINTS 2-4 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS
DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SOME PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG FORMATION.

A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE ESE.
THIS WILL BRING A GENERALLY DRY PATTERN WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS...IN
THE 60S...AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS...MAINLY LOWER 90S. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WE WILL
CARRY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY...AND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OVER THE NORTH HIGHLAND RIM
AND PLATEAU ON THURSDAY.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE.
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A TOTAL WASHOUT...BUT THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCE
WILL BE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...BUT THE TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN SO FAR IN ADVANCE. SEVERE WX DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK INDICATES WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH AROUND 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KOHX 262321
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
621 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A COUPLE OF SW MOVING SHOWERS NEAR KCKV AT ISSUANCE. SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THOUGH AND END BY 01Z. BIGGEST STORY TONIGHT MIGHT BE THE FOG.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND DROPPED OFF KCKV AND KCSV TO 1/2SM BY 09Z. IN
THE END THIS MIGHT BE A TOUCH AGGRESSIVE BUT WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND CALM SFC AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...
ITS A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FLIGHT CATEGORIES RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z WEDNESDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS
AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE MID-STATE WEDNESDAY
LEAVING JUST SOME LIGHT WINDS AND SCT AFTERNOON DECKS.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS WARM AS EXPECTED
TODAY...THANKS TO A BAND OF CLOUDS THAT WAS OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE AXIS OF MOISTURE AND
WEAK CONVERGENCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO WE WILL
KEEP SMALL POPS FOR THE WEST HALF OF MID TN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EAST COAST WAS PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE EAST HALF OF
MID TN...WITH DEW POINTS 2-4 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS
DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SOME PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG FORMATION.

A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE ESE.
THIS WILL BRING A GENERALLY DRY PATTERN WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS...IN
THE 60S...AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS...MAINLY LOWER 90S. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WE WILL
CARRY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY...AND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OVER THE NORTH HIGHLAND RIM
AND PLATEAU ON THURSDAY.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE.
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A TOTAL WASHOUT...BUT THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCE
WILL BE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...BUT THE TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN SO FAR IN ADVANCE. SEVERE WX DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK INDICATES WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH AROUND 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27








000
FXUS64 KMEG 262019
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
319 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
MID SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS THAT IS STRETCHED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND RESIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SEPARATE A DRIER
AIRMASS SOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S FROM MOIST CONDITIONS
NORTH WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR RENEWED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
THURSDAY...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
MAINLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA
BY NEXT WEEKEND. DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE MID
SOUTH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BEGINNING FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN. GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL REBUILD BACK OVER THE MID SOUTH BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE SOME...A MOIST
ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT
WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FEW
EXCEPTIONS. VCTS INCLUDED FOR KMKL AND KMEM AS CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS AND RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST THESE ARE THE MOST LIKELY
FOR ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM
OVERNIGHT...AND WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT AT KMKL HAVE
PREVAILED MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMKL OVERNIGHT FOR THE PRESENCE OF
PATCHY FOG. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR MVFR CAT VSBYS FOR KTUP AND
KJBR AS FOG COULD DEVELOP AT THOSE SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TOMORROW WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 262019
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
319 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
MID SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS THAT IS STRETCHED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND RESIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SEPARATE A DRIER
AIRMASS SOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S FROM MOIST CONDITIONS
NORTH WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR RENEWED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
THURSDAY...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
MAINLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA
BY NEXT WEEKEND. DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE MID
SOUTH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BEGINNING FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN. GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL REBUILD BACK OVER THE MID SOUTH BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE SOME...A MOIST
ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT
WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FEW
EXCEPTIONS. VCTS INCLUDED FOR KMKL AND KMEM AS CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS AND RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST THESE ARE THE MOST LIKELY
FOR ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM
OVERNIGHT...AND WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT AT KMKL HAVE
PREVAILED MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMKL OVERNIGHT FOR THE PRESENCE OF
PATCHY FOG. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR MVFR CAT VSBYS FOR KTUP AND
KJBR AS FOG COULD DEVELOP AT THOSE SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TOMORROW WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 262019
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
319 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
MID SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS THAT IS STRETCHED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND RESIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SEPARATE A DRIER
AIRMASS SOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S FROM MOIST CONDITIONS
NORTH WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR RENEWED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
THURSDAY...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
MAINLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA
BY NEXT WEEKEND. DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE MID
SOUTH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BEGINNING FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN. GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL REBUILD BACK OVER THE MID SOUTH BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE SOME...A MOIST
ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT
WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FEW
EXCEPTIONS. VCTS INCLUDED FOR KMKL AND KMEM AS CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS AND RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST THESE ARE THE MOST LIKELY
FOR ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM
OVERNIGHT...AND WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT AT KMKL HAVE
PREVAILED MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMKL OVERNIGHT FOR THE PRESENCE OF
PATCHY FOG. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR MVFR CAT VSBYS FOR KTUP AND
KJBR AS FOG COULD DEVELOP AT THOSE SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TOMORROW WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 262019
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
319 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
MID SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS THAT IS STRETCHED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND RESIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SEPARATE A DRIER
AIRMASS SOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S FROM MOIST CONDITIONS
NORTH WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR RENEWED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
THURSDAY...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
MAINLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA
BY NEXT WEEKEND. DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE MID
SOUTH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BEGINNING FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN. GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL REBUILD BACK OVER THE MID SOUTH BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE SOME...A MOIST
ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT
WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FEW
EXCEPTIONS. VCTS INCLUDED FOR KMKL AND KMEM AS CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS AND RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST THESE ARE THE MOST LIKELY
FOR ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM
OVERNIGHT...AND WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT AT KMKL HAVE
PREVAILED MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMKL OVERNIGHT FOR THE PRESENCE OF
PATCHY FOG. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR MVFR CAT VSBYS FOR KTUP AND
KJBR AS FOG COULD DEVELOP AT THOSE SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TOMORROW WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMRX 261941
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
341 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ANY CLOUD
COVER THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND THUS
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
DROP INTO THE 70S TO UPPER 60S BY LATE EVENING AND EVENTUALLY
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA TO THE LOW TO
MID 60S ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AREA LAKES/RIVERS ONCE AGAIN...BUT A DRIER BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD LIMIT ITS TO DEVELOPMENT TO THOSE USUAL PRONE AREAS.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BRING HIGHER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BY THE AFTERNOON...AND A STRONG CAP
ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY CONVECTION FROM FIRING...SO HAVE A
KEPT A DRY FORECAST AS WELL.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL IN
PLACE...AND THIS RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE DOMINATING
INFLUENCE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST...THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.  OVER THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE GETS SHOVED TO THE EAST AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  THIS SHOULD
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...BUT THE POSITIVE TILT TO THE
TROUGH LEADS TO A CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...THAT SHOULD TEND
TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF LIFT AND OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE WEAK
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MONDAY...AND ALLOW
THE RIDGE TO START BUILDING AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST.

STILL LOOKS LIKE PRECIP THAT IS FORECAST IN THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS OVERDONE BY THE MODELS...THE
MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS KEEPS KTRI BELOW MENTIONABLE POPS.  MOS
TEMPS LOOKED GOOD OVERALL...SO HAVE KEPT PRETTY CLOSE TO THEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             65  93  64  95 /   0   0  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  90  64  93 /   0   0  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       63  91  63  93 /   0   0  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              58  87  59  91 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP/GM



000
FXUS64 KMRX 261941
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
341 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ANY CLOUD
COVER THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND THUS
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
DROP INTO THE 70S TO UPPER 60S BY LATE EVENING AND EVENTUALLY
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA TO THE LOW TO
MID 60S ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AREA LAKES/RIVERS ONCE AGAIN...BUT A DRIER BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD LIMIT ITS TO DEVELOPMENT TO THOSE USUAL PRONE AREAS.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BRING HIGHER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BY THE AFTERNOON...AND A STRONG CAP
ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY CONVECTION FROM FIRING...SO HAVE A
KEPT A DRY FORECAST AS WELL.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL IN
PLACE...AND THIS RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE DOMINATING
INFLUENCE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST...THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.  OVER THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE GETS SHOVED TO THE EAST AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  THIS SHOULD
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...BUT THE POSITIVE TILT TO THE
TROUGH LEADS TO A CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...THAT SHOULD TEND
TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF LIFT AND OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE WEAK
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MONDAY...AND ALLOW
THE RIDGE TO START BUILDING AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST.

STILL LOOKS LIKE PRECIP THAT IS FORECAST IN THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS OVERDONE BY THE MODELS...THE
MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS KEEPS KTRI BELOW MENTIONABLE POPS.  MOS
TEMPS LOOKED GOOD OVERALL...SO HAVE KEPT PRETTY CLOSE TO THEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             65  93  64  95 /   0   0  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  90  64  93 /   0   0  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       63  91  63  93 /   0   0  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              58  87  59  91 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP/GM




000
FXUS64 KOHX 261935
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
235 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS WARN AS
EXPECTED TODAY...THANKS TO A BAND OF CLOUDS THAT WAS OVER THE AREA
THIS MORNING...AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE AXIS OF MOISTURE
AND WEAK CONVERGENCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO WE WILL
KEEP SMALL POPS FOR THE WEST HALF OF MID TN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EAST COAST WAS PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE EAST HALF OF
MID TN...WITH DEW POINTS 2-4 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS
DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT THAN
LAST NIGHT. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SOME PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG FORMATION.

A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE ESE.
THIS WILL BRING A GENERALLY DRY PATTERN WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS...IN
THE 60S...AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS...MAINLY LOWER 90S. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WE WILL
CARRY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY...AND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OVER THE NORTH HIGHLAND RIM
AND PLATEAU ON THURSDAY.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE.
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A TOTAL WASHOUT...BUT THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCE
WILL BE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...BUT THE TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN SO FAR IN ADVANCE. SEVERE WX DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK INDICATES WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH AROUND 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
WITH RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MID
STATE THRU 27/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SCT CU TO SCT/BKN CI
EXPECTED DURING DIURNAL HEATING PERIODS...GENERALLY 26/18Z-27/02Z
AND 27/15Z-27/18Z. SOME ISO SHWR/TSTMS POSSIBLE PER DIURNAL HEATING
AND LOCAL AFFECTS ALSO...BUT EXACT LOCATION DEVELOPMENT SO HARD
TO DETERMINE AND QUESTIONABLE IF DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AT OR AROUND
TAF SITES ANYWAY...WILL NOT MENTION. PER USUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PONDING EFFECTS WITH ASSOCIATED CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...
MVFR CKV TO TEMPO IFR FOG INDUCED VSBYS CSV POSSIBLE 27/04Z-27/13Z.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      69  93  69  94 /  10  05  05  10
CLARKSVILLE    67  93  67  94 /  20  10  05  10
CROSSVILLE     62  86  64  87 /  10  05   0  20
COLUMBIA       64  93  64  93 /  20   0  05  10
LAWRENCEBURG   65  93  65  92 /  20   0  05  10
WAVERLY        66  93  67  94 /  20  10  05  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 261935
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
235 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS WARN AS
EXPECTED TODAY...THANKS TO A BAND OF CLOUDS THAT WAS OVER THE AREA
THIS MORNING...AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE AXIS OF MOISTURE
AND WEAK CONVERGENCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO WE WILL
KEEP SMALL POPS FOR THE WEST HALF OF MID TN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EAST COAST WAS PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE EAST HALF OF
MID TN...WITH DEW POINTS 2-4 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS
DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT THAN
LAST NIGHT. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SOME PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG FORMATION.

A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE ESE.
THIS WILL BRING A GENERALLY DRY PATTERN WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS...IN
THE 60S...AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS...MAINLY LOWER 90S. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WE WILL
CARRY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY...AND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OVER THE NORTH HIGHLAND RIM
AND PLATEAU ON THURSDAY.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE.
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A TOTAL WASHOUT...BUT THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCE
WILL BE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...BUT THE TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN SO FAR IN ADVANCE. SEVERE WX DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK INDICATES WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH AROUND 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
WITH RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MID
STATE THRU 27/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SCT CU TO SCT/BKN CI
EXPECTED DURING DIURNAL HEATING PERIODS...GENERALLY 26/18Z-27/02Z
AND 27/15Z-27/18Z. SOME ISO SHWR/TSTMS POSSIBLE PER DIURNAL HEATING
AND LOCAL AFFECTS ALSO...BUT EXACT LOCATION DEVELOPMENT SO HARD
TO DETERMINE AND QUESTIONABLE IF DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AT OR AROUND
TAF SITES ANYWAY...WILL NOT MENTION. PER USUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PONDING EFFECTS WITH ASSOCIATED CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...
MVFR CKV TO TEMPO IFR FOG INDUCED VSBYS CSV POSSIBLE 27/04Z-27/13Z.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      69  93  69  94 /  10  05  05  10
CLARKSVILLE    67  93  67  94 /  20  10  05  10
CROSSVILLE     62  86  64  87 /  10  05   0  20
COLUMBIA       64  93  64  93 /  20   0  05  10
LAWRENCEBURG   65  93  65  92 /  20   0  05  10
WAVERLY        66  93  67  94 /  20  10  05  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 261935
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
235 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS WARN AS
EXPECTED TODAY...THANKS TO A BAND OF CLOUDS THAT WAS OVER THE AREA
THIS MORNING...AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE AXIS OF MOISTURE
AND WEAK CONVERGENCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO WE WILL
KEEP SMALL POPS FOR THE WEST HALF OF MID TN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EAST COAST WAS PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE EAST HALF OF
MID TN...WITH DEW POINTS 2-4 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS
DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT THAN
LAST NIGHT. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SOME PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG FORMATION.

A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE ESE.
THIS WILL BRING A GENERALLY DRY PATTERN WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS...IN
THE 60S...AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS...MAINLY LOWER 90S. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WE WILL
CARRY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY...AND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OVER THE NORTH HIGHLAND RIM
AND PLATEAU ON THURSDAY.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE.
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A TOTAL WASHOUT...BUT THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCE
WILL BE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...BUT THE TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN SO FAR IN ADVANCE. SEVERE WX DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK INDICATES WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH AROUND 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
WITH RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MID
STATE THRU 27/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SCT CU TO SCT/BKN CI
EXPECTED DURING DIURNAL HEATING PERIODS...GENERALLY 26/18Z-27/02Z
AND 27/15Z-27/18Z. SOME ISO SHWR/TSTMS POSSIBLE PER DIURNAL HEATING
AND LOCAL AFFECTS ALSO...BUT EXACT LOCATION DEVELOPMENT SO HARD
TO DETERMINE AND QUESTIONABLE IF DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AT OR AROUND
TAF SITES ANYWAY...WILL NOT MENTION. PER USUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PONDING EFFECTS WITH ASSOCIATED CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...
MVFR CKV TO TEMPO IFR FOG INDUCED VSBYS CSV POSSIBLE 27/04Z-27/13Z.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      69  93  69  94 /  10  05  05  10
CLARKSVILLE    67  93  67  94 /  20  10  05  10
CROSSVILLE     62  86  64  87 /  10  05   0  20
COLUMBIA       64  93  64  93 /  20   0  05  10
LAWRENCEBURG   65  93  65  92 /  20   0  05  10
WAVERLY        66  93  67  94 /  20  10  05  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 261935
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
235 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS WARN AS
EXPECTED TODAY...THANKS TO A BAND OF CLOUDS THAT WAS OVER THE AREA
THIS MORNING...AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE AXIS OF MOISTURE
AND WEAK CONVERGENCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO WE WILL
KEEP SMALL POPS FOR THE WEST HALF OF MID TN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EAST COAST WAS PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE EAST HALF OF
MID TN...WITH DEW POINTS 2-4 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS
DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT THAN
LAST NIGHT. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SOME PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG FORMATION.

A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE ESE.
THIS WILL BRING A GENERALLY DRY PATTERN WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS...IN
THE 60S...AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS...MAINLY LOWER 90S. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WE WILL
CARRY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY...AND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OVER THE NORTH HIGHLAND RIM
AND PLATEAU ON THURSDAY.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE.
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A TOTAL WASHOUT...BUT THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCE
WILL BE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...BUT THE TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN SO FAR IN ADVANCE. SEVERE WX DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK INDICATES WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH AROUND 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
WITH RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MID
STATE THRU 27/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SCT CU TO SCT/BKN CI
EXPECTED DURING DIURNAL HEATING PERIODS...GENERALLY 26/18Z-27/02Z
AND 27/15Z-27/18Z. SOME ISO SHWR/TSTMS POSSIBLE PER DIURNAL HEATING
AND LOCAL AFFECTS ALSO...BUT EXACT LOCATION DEVELOPMENT SO HARD
TO DETERMINE AND QUESTIONABLE IF DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AT OR AROUND
TAF SITES ANYWAY...WILL NOT MENTION. PER USUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PONDING EFFECTS WITH ASSOCIATED CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...
MVFR CKV TO TEMPO IFR FOG INDUCED VSBYS CSV POSSIBLE 27/04Z-27/13Z.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      69  93  69  94 /  10  05  05  10
CLARKSVILLE    67  93  67  94 /  20  10  05  10
CROSSVILLE     62  86  64  87 /  10  05   0  20
COLUMBIA       64  93  64  93 /  20   0  05  10
LAWRENCEBURG   65  93  65  92 /  20   0  05  10
WAVERLY        66  93  67  94 /  20  10  05  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 261756 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1256 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
WITH RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MID
STATE THRU 27/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SCT CU TO SCT/BKN CI
EXPECTED DURING DIURNAL HEATING PERIODS...GENERALLY 26/18Z-27/02Z
AND 27/15Z-27/18Z. SOME ISO SHWR/TSTMS POSSIBLE PER DIURNAL HEATING
AND LOCAL AFFECTS ALSO...BUT EXACT LOCATION DEVELOPMENT SO HARD
TO DETERMINE AND QUESTIONABLE IF DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AT OR AROUND
TAF SITES ANYWAY...WILL NOT MENTION. PER USUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PONDING EFFECTS WITH ASSOCIATED CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...
MVFR CKV TO TEMPO IFR FOG INDUCED VSBYS CSV POSSIBLE 27/04Z-27/13Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON PER CURRENT
REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OB TRENDS ALONG WITH CONSENSUS
OF SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS
W OF PLATEAU THRU AFTERNOON HRS. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
MORNING AND TEMPS STILL A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW READINGS FOR
THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH A SIMILAR OVERALL WX PATTERN IN PLACE...HAVE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPS RANGING NOW FROM THE LOWER 80S PLATEAU TO UPPER 80S TN
VALLEY REGION.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 854 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...
WITH SOME ISO LIGHT SHWRS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING...
HAVE UPDATE THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION ISO SHWRS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 725 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR 14-15Z LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. FOG
IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN OVERNIGHT
CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR CSV...
AND POSSIBLY CKV AS WELL 06-12Z WED.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED W-E FROM OK THROUGH IL. AT THE SFC...SFC
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SFC RIDGE WILL BE
INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BY ALLOWING DRIER AIR
TO WORK IN THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.

OTW...A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY STILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BUT OTHER THAN A FEW EXTRA MORNING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
STRAY AFT SHOWER/TSTM SW...THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN THE
DAYS TO COME. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS BUT THE ASSOCIATED AXIS WILL
EXTEND NW TOWARD TN. THEREBY...THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK
LOOKS BASICALLY DRY.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...THERMAL WITH THERMAL RIDGING IN
PLACE...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES OR
SO ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS THE LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT JUST A TOUCH.

IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. A
SOUTHERLY MULTI-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL RETURN AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES TO RETURN.

THE EXT TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK WARMER THAN NORMAL AS UPPER
RIDGING...THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...HOLDS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 261756 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1256 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
WITH RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MID
STATE THRU 27/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SCT CU TO SCT/BKN CI
EXPECTED DURING DIURNAL HEATING PERIODS...GENERALLY 26/18Z-27/02Z
AND 27/15Z-27/18Z. SOME ISO SHWR/TSTMS POSSIBLE PER DIURNAL HEATING
AND LOCAL AFFECTS ALSO...BUT EXACT LOCATION DEVELOPMENT SO HARD
TO DETERMINE AND QUESTIONABLE IF DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AT OR AROUND
TAF SITES ANYWAY...WILL NOT MENTION. PER USUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PONDING EFFECTS WITH ASSOCIATED CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...
MVFR CKV TO TEMPO IFR FOG INDUCED VSBYS CSV POSSIBLE 27/04Z-27/13Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON PER CURRENT
REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OB TRENDS ALONG WITH CONSENSUS
OF SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS
W OF PLATEAU THRU AFTERNOON HRS. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
MORNING AND TEMPS STILL A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW READINGS FOR
THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH A SIMILAR OVERALL WX PATTERN IN PLACE...HAVE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPS RANGING NOW FROM THE LOWER 80S PLATEAU TO UPPER 80S TN
VALLEY REGION.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 854 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...
WITH SOME ISO LIGHT SHWRS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING...
HAVE UPDATE THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION ISO SHWRS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 725 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR 14-15Z LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. FOG
IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN OVERNIGHT
CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR CSV...
AND POSSIBLY CKV AS WELL 06-12Z WED.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED W-E FROM OK THROUGH IL. AT THE SFC...SFC
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SFC RIDGE WILL BE
INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BY ALLOWING DRIER AIR
TO WORK IN THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.

OTW...A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY STILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BUT OTHER THAN A FEW EXTRA MORNING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
STRAY AFT SHOWER/TSTM SW...THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN THE
DAYS TO COME. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS BUT THE ASSOCIATED AXIS WILL
EXTEND NW TOWARD TN. THEREBY...THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK
LOOKS BASICALLY DRY.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...THERMAL WITH THERMAL RIDGING IN
PLACE...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES OR
SO ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS THE LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT JUST A TOUCH.

IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. A
SOUTHERLY MULTI-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL RETURN AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES TO RETURN.

THE EXT TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK WARMER THAN NORMAL AS UPPER
RIDGING...THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...HOLDS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 261756 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1256 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
WITH RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MID
STATE THRU 27/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SCT CU TO SCT/BKN CI
EXPECTED DURING DIURNAL HEATING PERIODS...GENERALLY 26/18Z-27/02Z
AND 27/15Z-27/18Z. SOME ISO SHWR/TSTMS POSSIBLE PER DIURNAL HEATING
AND LOCAL AFFECTS ALSO...BUT EXACT LOCATION DEVELOPMENT SO HARD
TO DETERMINE AND QUESTIONABLE IF DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AT OR AROUND
TAF SITES ANYWAY...WILL NOT MENTION. PER USUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PONDING EFFECTS WITH ASSOCIATED CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...
MVFR CKV TO TEMPO IFR FOG INDUCED VSBYS CSV POSSIBLE 27/04Z-27/13Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON PER CURRENT
REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OB TRENDS ALONG WITH CONSENSUS
OF SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS
W OF PLATEAU THRU AFTERNOON HRS. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
MORNING AND TEMPS STILL A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW READINGS FOR
THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH A SIMILAR OVERALL WX PATTERN IN PLACE...HAVE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPS RANGING NOW FROM THE LOWER 80S PLATEAU TO UPPER 80S TN
VALLEY REGION.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 854 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...
WITH SOME ISO LIGHT SHWRS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING...
HAVE UPDATE THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION ISO SHWRS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 725 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR 14-15Z LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. FOG
IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN OVERNIGHT
CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR CSV...
AND POSSIBLY CKV AS WELL 06-12Z WED.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED W-E FROM OK THROUGH IL. AT THE SFC...SFC
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SFC RIDGE WILL BE
INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BY ALLOWING DRIER AIR
TO WORK IN THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.

OTW...A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY STILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BUT OTHER THAN A FEW EXTRA MORNING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
STRAY AFT SHOWER/TSTM SW...THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN THE
DAYS TO COME. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS BUT THE ASSOCIATED AXIS WILL
EXTEND NW TOWARD TN. THEREBY...THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK
LOOKS BASICALLY DRY.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...THERMAL WITH THERMAL RIDGING IN
PLACE...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES OR
SO ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS THE LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT JUST A TOUCH.

IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. A
SOUTHERLY MULTI-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL RETURN AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES TO RETURN.

THE EXT TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK WARMER THAN NORMAL AS UPPER
RIDGING...THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...HOLDS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 261756 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1256 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
WITH RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MID
STATE THRU 27/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SCT CU TO SCT/BKN CI
EXPECTED DURING DIURNAL HEATING PERIODS...GENERALLY 26/18Z-27/02Z
AND 27/15Z-27/18Z. SOME ISO SHWR/TSTMS POSSIBLE PER DIURNAL HEATING
AND LOCAL AFFECTS ALSO...BUT EXACT LOCATION DEVELOPMENT SO HARD
TO DETERMINE AND QUESTIONABLE IF DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AT OR AROUND
TAF SITES ANYWAY...WILL NOT MENTION. PER USUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PONDING EFFECTS WITH ASSOCIATED CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...
MVFR CKV TO TEMPO IFR FOG INDUCED VSBYS CSV POSSIBLE 27/04Z-27/13Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON PER CURRENT
REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OB TRENDS ALONG WITH CONSENSUS
OF SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS
W OF PLATEAU THRU AFTERNOON HRS. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
MORNING AND TEMPS STILL A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW READINGS FOR
THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH A SIMILAR OVERALL WX PATTERN IN PLACE...HAVE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPS RANGING NOW FROM THE LOWER 80S PLATEAU TO UPPER 80S TN
VALLEY REGION.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 854 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...
WITH SOME ISO LIGHT SHWRS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING...
HAVE UPDATE THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION ISO SHWRS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 725 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR 14-15Z LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. FOG
IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN OVERNIGHT
CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR CSV...
AND POSSIBLY CKV AS WELL 06-12Z WED.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED W-E FROM OK THROUGH IL. AT THE SFC...SFC
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SFC RIDGE WILL BE
INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BY ALLOWING DRIER AIR
TO WORK IN THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.

OTW...A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY STILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BUT OTHER THAN A FEW EXTRA MORNING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
STRAY AFT SHOWER/TSTM SW...THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN THE
DAYS TO COME. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS BUT THE ASSOCIATED AXIS WILL
EXTEND NW TOWARD TN. THEREBY...THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK
LOOKS BASICALLY DRY.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...THERMAL WITH THERMAL RIDGING IN
PLACE...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES OR
SO ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS THE LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT JUST A TOUCH.

IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. A
SOUTHERLY MULTI-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL RETURN AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES TO RETURN.

THE EXT TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK WARMER THAN NORMAL AS UPPER
RIDGING...THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...HOLDS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KMEG 261740
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1240 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...

MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR CLOUD COVER.

DISCUSSION...

A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS BASED AROUND 925MB WAS STRETCHED
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABLIZE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARY. THIS AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY IS
MAXIMIZED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 90 DEGREES
EAST TO THE MIDDLE 90S WEST.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

JLH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BY FRIDAY...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER TROF TO MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND.

HAVE EXPANDED 20 POPS TO COVER THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH TODAY AS AN
EASTERLY WAVE COULD STILL SET OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST HAD LEFT NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI DRY. HOWEVER...00Z NAM INDICATES DEVELOPMENT COULD
OCCUR THERE AS WELL.

BEHIND THE EASTERLY WAVE...WINDS WILL TURN
AROUND TO THE EAST AND USHER IN LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA.
THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR HOT DAYS FOLLOWED BY COOLER NIGHTS.
IN ADDITION...LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES STAYING
BELOW 100 DEGREES. THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S. HOWEVER...LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
DRY AIR IN PLACE. ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THE SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 50 ACROSS THE AREA AS A RESULT.
CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR NEAR
THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AT LEAST TRY TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
MONDAY. HIGHS MAY RETURN TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FEW
EXCEPTIONS. VCTS INCLUDED FOR KMKL AND KMEM AS CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS AND RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST THESE ARE THE MOST LIKELY
FOR ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM
OVERNIGHT...AND WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT AT KMKL HAVE
PREVAILED MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMKL OVERNIGHT FOR THE PRESENCE OF
PATCHY FOG. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR MVFR CAT VSBYS FOR KTUP AND
KJBR AS FOG COULD DEVELOP AT THOSE SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TOMORROW WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS.

ZDM


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 261740
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1240 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...

MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR CLOUD COVER.

DISCUSSION...

A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS BASED AROUND 925MB WAS STRETCHED
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABLIZE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARY. THIS AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY IS
MAXIMIZED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 90 DEGREES
EAST TO THE MIDDLE 90S WEST.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

JLH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BY FRIDAY...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER TROF TO MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND.

HAVE EXPANDED 20 POPS TO COVER THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH TODAY AS AN
EASTERLY WAVE COULD STILL SET OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST HAD LEFT NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI DRY. HOWEVER...00Z NAM INDICATES DEVELOPMENT COULD
OCCUR THERE AS WELL.

BEHIND THE EASTERLY WAVE...WINDS WILL TURN
AROUND TO THE EAST AND USHER IN LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA.
THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR HOT DAYS FOLLOWED BY COOLER NIGHTS.
IN ADDITION...LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES STAYING
BELOW 100 DEGREES. THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S. HOWEVER...LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
DRY AIR IN PLACE. ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THE SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 50 ACROSS THE AREA AS A RESULT.
CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR NEAR
THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AT LEAST TRY TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
MONDAY. HIGHS MAY RETURN TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FEW
EXCEPTIONS. VCTS INCLUDED FOR KMKL AND KMEM AS CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS AND RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST THESE ARE THE MOST LIKELY
FOR ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM
OVERNIGHT...AND WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT AT KMKL HAVE
PREVAILED MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMKL OVERNIGHT FOR THE PRESENCE OF
PATCHY FOG. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR MVFR CAT VSBYS FOR KTUP AND
KJBR AS FOG COULD DEVELOP AT THOSE SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TOMORROW WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS.

ZDM


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMRX 261739 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
139 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AT KTRI WHERE SOME
LIGHT MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KOHX 261720 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1220 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON PER CURRENT
REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OB TRENDS ALONG WITH CONSENSUS
OF SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS
W OF PLATEAU THRU AFTERNOON HRS. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
MORNING AND TEMPS STILL A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW READINGS FOR
THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH A SIMILAR OVERALL WX PATTERN IN PLACE...HAVE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPS RANGING NOW FROM THE LOWER 80S PLATEAU TO UPPER 80S TN
VALLEY REGION.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 854 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...
WITH SOME ISO LIGHT SHWRS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING...
HAVE UPDATE THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION ISO SHWRS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 725 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR 14-15Z LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. FOG
IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN OVERNIGHT
CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR CSV...
AND POSSIBLY CKV AS WELL 06-12Z WED.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED W-E FROM OK THROUGH IL. AT THE SFC...SFC
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SFC RIDGE WILL BE
INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BY ALLOWING DRIER AIR
TO WORK IN THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.

OTW...A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY STILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BUT OTHER THAN A FEW EXTRA MORNING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
STRAY AFT SHOWER/TSTM SW...THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN THE
DAYS TO COME. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS BUT THE ASSOCIATED AXIS WILL
EXTEND NW TOWARD TN. THEREBY...THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK
LOOKS BASICALLY DRY.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...THERMAL WITH THERMAL RIDGING IN
PLACE...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES OR
SO ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS THE LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT JUST A TOUCH.

IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. A
SOUTHERLY MULTI-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL RETURN AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES TO RETURN.

THE EXT TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK WARMER THAN NORMAL AS UPPER
RIDGING...THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...HOLDS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 261720 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1220 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON PER CURRENT
REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OB TRENDS ALONG WITH CONSENSUS
OF SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS
W OF PLATEAU THRU AFTERNOON HRS. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
MORNING AND TEMPS STILL A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW READINGS FOR
THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH A SIMILAR OVERALL WX PATTERN IN PLACE...HAVE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPS RANGING NOW FROM THE LOWER 80S PLATEAU TO UPPER 80S TN
VALLEY REGION.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 854 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...
WITH SOME ISO LIGHT SHWRS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING...
HAVE UPDATE THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION ISO SHWRS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 725 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR 14-15Z LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. FOG
IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN OVERNIGHT
CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR CSV...
AND POSSIBLY CKV AS WELL 06-12Z WED.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED W-E FROM OK THROUGH IL. AT THE SFC...SFC
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SFC RIDGE WILL BE
INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BY ALLOWING DRIER AIR
TO WORK IN THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.

OTW...A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY STILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BUT OTHER THAN A FEW EXTRA MORNING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
STRAY AFT SHOWER/TSTM SW...THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN THE
DAYS TO COME. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS BUT THE ASSOCIATED AXIS WILL
EXTEND NW TOWARD TN. THEREBY...THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK
LOOKS BASICALLY DRY.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...THERMAL WITH THERMAL RIDGING IN
PLACE...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES OR
SO ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS THE LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT JUST A TOUCH.

IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. A
SOUTHERLY MULTI-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL RETURN AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES TO RETURN.

THE EXT TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK WARMER THAN NORMAL AS UPPER
RIDGING...THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...HOLDS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 261720 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1220 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON PER CURRENT
REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OB TRENDS ALONG WITH CONSENSUS
OF SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS
W OF PLATEAU THRU AFTERNOON HRS. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
MORNING AND TEMPS STILL A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW READINGS FOR
THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH A SIMILAR OVERALL WX PATTERN IN PLACE...HAVE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPS RANGING NOW FROM THE LOWER 80S PLATEAU TO UPPER 80S TN
VALLEY REGION.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 854 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...
WITH SOME ISO LIGHT SHWRS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING...
HAVE UPDATE THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION ISO SHWRS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 725 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR 14-15Z LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. FOG
IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN OVERNIGHT
CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR CSV...
AND POSSIBLY CKV AS WELL 06-12Z WED.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED W-E FROM OK THROUGH IL. AT THE SFC...SFC
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SFC RIDGE WILL BE
INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BY ALLOWING DRIER AIR
TO WORK IN THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.

OTW...A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY STILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BUT OTHER THAN A FEW EXTRA MORNING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
STRAY AFT SHOWER/TSTM SW...THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN THE
DAYS TO COME. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS BUT THE ASSOCIATED AXIS WILL
EXTEND NW TOWARD TN. THEREBY...THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK
LOOKS BASICALLY DRY.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...THERMAL WITH THERMAL RIDGING IN
PLACE...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES OR
SO ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS THE LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT JUST A TOUCH.

IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. A
SOUTHERLY MULTI-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL RETURN AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES TO RETURN.

THE EXT TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK WARMER THAN NORMAL AS UPPER
RIDGING...THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...HOLDS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 261720 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1220 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON PER CURRENT
REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OB TRENDS ALONG WITH CONSENSUS
OF SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS
W OF PLATEAU THRU AFTERNOON HRS. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
MORNING AND TEMPS STILL A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW READINGS FOR
THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH A SIMILAR OVERALL WX PATTERN IN PLACE...HAVE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPS RANGING NOW FROM THE LOWER 80S PLATEAU TO UPPER 80S TN
VALLEY REGION.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 854 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...
WITH SOME ISO LIGHT SHWRS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING...
HAVE UPDATE THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION ISO SHWRS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 725 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR 14-15Z LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. FOG
IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN OVERNIGHT
CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR CSV...
AND POSSIBLY CKV AS WELL 06-12Z WED.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED W-E FROM OK THROUGH IL. AT THE SFC...SFC
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SFC RIDGE WILL BE
INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BY ALLOWING DRIER AIR
TO WORK IN THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.

OTW...A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY STILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BUT OTHER THAN A FEW EXTRA MORNING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
STRAY AFT SHOWER/TSTM SW...THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN THE
DAYS TO COME. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS BUT THE ASSOCIATED AXIS WILL
EXTEND NW TOWARD TN. THEREBY...THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK
LOOKS BASICALLY DRY.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...THERMAL WITH THERMAL RIDGING IN
PLACE...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES OR
SO ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS THE LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT JUST A TOUCH.

IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. A
SOUTHERLY MULTI-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL RETURN AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES TO RETURN.

THE EXT TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK WARMER THAN NORMAL AS UPPER
RIDGING...THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...HOLDS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
31






000
FXUS64 KMEG 261517
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1017 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...

MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR CLOUD COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS BASED AROUND 925MB WAS STRETCHED
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABLIZE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARY. THIS AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY IS
MAXIMIZED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 90 DEGREES
EAST TO THE MIDDLE 90S WEST.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BY FRIDAY...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER TROF TO MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND.

HAVE EXPANDED 20 POPS TO COVER THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH TODAY AS AN
EASTERLY WAVE COULD STILL SET OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST HAD LEFT NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI DRY. HOWEVER...00Z NAM INDICATES DEVELOPMENT COULD
OCCUR THERE AS WELL.

BEHIND THE EASTERLY WAVE...WINDS WILL TURN
AROUND TO THE EAST AND USHER IN LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA.
THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR HOT DAYS FOLLOWED BY COOLER NIGHTS.
IN ADDITION...LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES STAYING
BELOW 100 DEGREES. THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S. HOWEVER...LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
DRY AIR IN PLACE. ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THE SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 50 ACROSS THE AREA AS A RESULT.
CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR NEAR
THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AT LEAST TRY TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
MONDAY. HIGHS MAY RETURN TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AT MKL AND TUP. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN TAFS.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 261517
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1017 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...

MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR CLOUD COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS BASED AROUND 925MB WAS STRETCHED
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABLIZE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARY. THIS AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY IS
MAXIMIZED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 90 DEGREES
EAST TO THE MIDDLE 90S WEST.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BY FRIDAY...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER TROF TO MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND.

HAVE EXPANDED 20 POPS TO COVER THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH TODAY AS AN
EASTERLY WAVE COULD STILL SET OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST HAD LEFT NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI DRY. HOWEVER...00Z NAM INDICATES DEVELOPMENT COULD
OCCUR THERE AS WELL.

BEHIND THE EASTERLY WAVE...WINDS WILL TURN
AROUND TO THE EAST AND USHER IN LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA.
THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR HOT DAYS FOLLOWED BY COOLER NIGHTS.
IN ADDITION...LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES STAYING
BELOW 100 DEGREES. THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S. HOWEVER...LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
DRY AIR IN PLACE. ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THE SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 50 ACROSS THE AREA AS A RESULT.
CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR NEAR
THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AT LEAST TRY TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
MONDAY. HIGHS MAY RETURN TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AT MKL AND TUP. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN TAFS.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMRX 261449 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1049 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME SCT MID TO HIGH CLOUD
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VALLEYS AND THE PLATEAU.
HOWEVER...AN INTERESTING FEATURE JUST TO OUR WEST IS A LOW-STRATUS
SHIELD CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ITS
CURRENT MOTION IS PUSHING IT AWAY FROM OUR PLATEAU COUNTIES AND IT
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVERTIME WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...
HAVE KEPT THE SKY GRIDS MOSTLY CLEAR ALONG THE PLATEAU THIS
MORNING. WITH THE MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...LIGHT EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW AND SOME CLOUD COVER...THINK HIGHS IN THE 85 TO 90
DEGREE RANGE ARE A GOOD BET /ABOUT A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY/. GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING CAP DEVELOPING ALOFT THOUGH...A
DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH NO DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             89  64  93  68 /   0   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  86  63  90  65 /   0   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       87  63  91  65 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  56  89  59 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP



000
FXUS64 KMRX 261449 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1049 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME SCT MID TO HIGH CLOUD
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VALLEYS AND THE PLATEAU.
HOWEVER...AN INTERESTING FEATURE JUST TO OUR WEST IS A LOW-STRATUS
SHIELD CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ITS
CURRENT MOTION IS PUSHING IT AWAY FROM OUR PLATEAU COUNTIES AND IT
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVERTIME WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...
HAVE KEPT THE SKY GRIDS MOSTLY CLEAR ALONG THE PLATEAU THIS
MORNING. WITH THE MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...LIGHT EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW AND SOME CLOUD COVER...THINK HIGHS IN THE 85 TO 90
DEGREE RANGE ARE A GOOD BET /ABOUT A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY/. GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING CAP DEVELOPING ALOFT THOUGH...A
DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH NO DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             89  64  93  68 /   0   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  86  63  90  65 /   0   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       87  63  91  65 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  56  89  59 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KOHX 261354 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
854 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH SOME ISO LIGHT SHWRS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING...
HAVE UPDATE THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION ISO SHWRS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR 14-15Z LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. FOG
IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN OVERNIGHT
CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR CSV...
AND POSSIBLY CKV AS WELL 06-12Z WED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED W-E FROM OK THROUGH IL. AT THE SFC...SFC
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SFC RIDGE WILL BE
INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BY ALLOWING DRIER AIR
TO WORK IN THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.

OTW...A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY STILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BUT OTHER THAN A FEW EXTRA MORNING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
STRAY AFT SHOWER/TSTM SW...THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN THE
DAYS TO COME. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS BUT THE ASSOCIATED AXIS WILL
EXTEND NW TOWARD TN. THEREBY...THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK
LOOKS BASICALLY DRY.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...THERMAL WITH THERMAL RIDGING IN
PLACE...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES OR
SO ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS THE LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT JUST A TOUCH.

IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. A
SOUTHERLY MULTI-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL RETURN AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES TO RETURN.

THE EXT TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK WARMER THAN NORMAL AS UPPER
RIDGING...THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...HOLDS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 261354 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
854 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH SOME ISO LIGHT SHWRS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING...
HAVE UPDATE THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION ISO SHWRS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR 14-15Z LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. FOG
IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN OVERNIGHT
CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR CSV...
AND POSSIBLY CKV AS WELL 06-12Z WED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED W-E FROM OK THROUGH IL. AT THE SFC...SFC
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SFC RIDGE WILL BE
INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BY ALLOWING DRIER AIR
TO WORK IN THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.

OTW...A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY STILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BUT OTHER THAN A FEW EXTRA MORNING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
STRAY AFT SHOWER/TSTM SW...THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN THE
DAYS TO COME. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS BUT THE ASSOCIATED AXIS WILL
EXTEND NW TOWARD TN. THEREBY...THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK
LOOKS BASICALLY DRY.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...THERMAL WITH THERMAL RIDGING IN
PLACE...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES OR
SO ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS THE LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT JUST A TOUCH.

IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. A
SOUTHERLY MULTI-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL RETURN AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES TO RETURN.

THE EXT TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK WARMER THAN NORMAL AS UPPER
RIDGING...THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...HOLDS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 261354 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
854 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH SOME ISO LIGHT SHWRS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING...
HAVE UPDATE THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION ISO SHWRS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR 14-15Z LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. FOG
IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN OVERNIGHT
CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR CSV...
AND POSSIBLY CKV AS WELL 06-12Z WED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED W-E FROM OK THROUGH IL. AT THE SFC...SFC
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SFC RIDGE WILL BE
INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BY ALLOWING DRIER AIR
TO WORK IN THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.

OTW...A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY STILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BUT OTHER THAN A FEW EXTRA MORNING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
STRAY AFT SHOWER/TSTM SW...THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN THE
DAYS TO COME. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS BUT THE ASSOCIATED AXIS WILL
EXTEND NW TOWARD TN. THEREBY...THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK
LOOKS BASICALLY DRY.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...THERMAL WITH THERMAL RIDGING IN
PLACE...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES OR
SO ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS THE LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT JUST A TOUCH.

IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. A
SOUTHERLY MULTI-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL RETURN AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES TO RETURN.

THE EXT TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK WARMER THAN NORMAL AS UPPER
RIDGING...THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...HOLDS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 261354 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
854 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH SOME ISO LIGHT SHWRS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING...
HAVE UPDATE THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION ISO SHWRS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR 14-15Z LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. FOG
IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN OVERNIGHT
CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR CSV...
AND POSSIBLY CKV AS WELL 06-12Z WED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED W-E FROM OK THROUGH IL. AT THE SFC...SFC
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SFC RIDGE WILL BE
INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BY ALLOWING DRIER AIR
TO WORK IN THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.

OTW...A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY STILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BUT OTHER THAN A FEW EXTRA MORNING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
STRAY AFT SHOWER/TSTM SW...THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN THE
DAYS TO COME. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS BUT THE ASSOCIATED AXIS WILL
EXTEND NW TOWARD TN. THEREBY...THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK
LOOKS BASICALLY DRY.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...THERMAL WITH THERMAL RIDGING IN
PLACE...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES OR
SO ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS THE LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT JUST A TOUCH.

IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. A
SOUTHERLY MULTI-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL RETURN AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES TO RETURN.

THE EXT TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK WARMER THAN NORMAL AS UPPER
RIDGING...THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...HOLDS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 261225
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
725 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR 14-15Z LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. FOG
IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN OVERNIGHT
CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR CSV...
AND POSSIBLY CKV AS WELL 06-12Z WED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED W-E FROM OK THROUGH IL. AT THE SFC...SFC
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SFC RIDGE WILL BE
INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BY ALLOWING DRIER AIR
TO WORK IN THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.

OTW...A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY STILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BUT OTHER THAN A FEW EXTRA MORNING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
STRAY AFT SHOWER/TSTM SW...THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN THE
DAYS TO COME. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS BUT THE ASSOCIATED AXIS WILL
EXTEND NW TOWARD TN. THEREBY...THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK
LOOKS BASICALLY DRY.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...THERMAL WITH THERMAL RIDGING IN
PLACE...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES OR
SO ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS THE LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT JUST A TOUCH.

IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. A
SOUTHERLY MULTI-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL RETURN AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES TO RETURN.

THE EXT TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK WARMER THAN NORMAL AS UPPER
RIDGING...THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...HOLDS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07







000
FXUS64 KOHX 261225
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
725 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR 14-15Z LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. FOG
IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN OVERNIGHT
CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR CSV...
AND POSSIBLY CKV AS WELL 06-12Z WED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED W-E FROM OK THROUGH IL. AT THE SFC...SFC
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SFC RIDGE WILL BE
INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BY ALLOWING DRIER AIR
TO WORK IN THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.

OTW...A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY STILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BUT OTHER THAN A FEW EXTRA MORNING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
STRAY AFT SHOWER/TSTM SW...THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN THE
DAYS TO COME. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS BUT THE ASSOCIATED AXIS WILL
EXTEND NW TOWARD TN. THEREBY...THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK
LOOKS BASICALLY DRY.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...THERMAL WITH THERMAL RIDGING IN
PLACE...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES OR
SO ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS THE LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT JUST A TOUCH.

IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. A
SOUTHERLY MULTI-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL RETURN AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES TO RETURN.

THE EXT TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK WARMER THAN NORMAL AS UPPER
RIDGING...THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...HOLDS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07






000
FXUS64 KMRX 261118
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
720 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS
WITH A DRY AIRMASS. LIGHT LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 261118
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
720 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS
WITH A DRY AIRMASS. LIGHT LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON



000
FXUS64 KMEG 261115
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
615 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BY FRIDAY...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER TROF TO MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND.

HAVE EXPANDED 20 POPS TO COVER THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH TODAY AS AN
EASTERLY WAVE COULD STILL SET OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST HAD LEFT NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI DRY. HOWEVER...00Z NAM INDICATES DEVELOPMENT COULD
OCCUR THERE AS WELL.

BEHIND THE EASTERLY WAVE...WINDS WILL TURN
AROUND TO THE EAST AND USHER IN LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA.
THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR HOT DAYS FOLLOWED BY COOLER NIGHTS.
IN ADDITION...LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES STAYING
BELOW 100 DEGREES. THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S. HOWEVER...LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
DRY AIR IN PLACE. ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THE SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 50 ACROSS THE AREA AS A RESULT.
CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR NEAR
THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AT LEAST TRY TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
MONDAY. HIGHS MAY RETURN TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AT MKL AND TUP. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN TAFS.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 261115
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
615 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BY FRIDAY...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER TROF TO MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND.

HAVE EXPANDED 20 POPS TO COVER THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH TODAY AS AN
EASTERLY WAVE COULD STILL SET OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST HAD LEFT NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI DRY. HOWEVER...00Z NAM INDICATES DEVELOPMENT COULD
OCCUR THERE AS WELL.

BEHIND THE EASTERLY WAVE...WINDS WILL TURN
AROUND TO THE EAST AND USHER IN LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA.
THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR HOT DAYS FOLLOWED BY COOLER NIGHTS.
IN ADDITION...LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES STAYING
BELOW 100 DEGREES. THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S. HOWEVER...LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
DRY AIR IN PLACE. ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THE SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 50 ACROSS THE AREA AS A RESULT.
CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR NEAR
THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AT LEAST TRY TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
MONDAY. HIGHS MAY RETURN TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AT MKL AND TUP. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN TAFS.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 260845
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED W-E FROM OK THROUGH IL. AT THE SFC...SFC
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SFC RIDGE WILL BE
INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BY ALLOWING DRIER AIR
TO WORK IN THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.

OTW...A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY STILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BUT OTHER THAN A FEW EXTRA MORNING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
STRAY AFT SHOWER/TSTM SW...THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN THE
DAYS TO COME. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS BUT THE ASSOCIATED AXIS WILL
EXTEND NW TOWARD TN. THEREBY...THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK
LOOKS BASICALLY DRY.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...THERMAL WITH THERMAL RIDGING IN
PLACE...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES OR
SO ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS THE LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT JUST A TOUCH.

IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. A
SOUTHERLY MULTI-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL RETURN AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES TO RETURN.

THE EXT TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK WARMER THAN NORMAL AS UPPER
RIDGING...THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...HOLDS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      91  71  93  72 /  10  10  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    92  68  93  69 /  10  10  05  05
CROSSVILLE     84  62  86  65 /  10  10  05  05
COLUMBIA       92  69  93  70 /  10  05   0  05
LAWRENCEBURG   91  65  93  67 /  20  05   0  05
WAVERLY        92  68  93  70 /  10  10  05  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KOHX 260845
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED W-E FROM OK THROUGH IL. AT THE SFC...SFC
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SFC RIDGE WILL BE
INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BY ALLOWING DRIER AIR
TO WORK IN THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.

OTW...A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY STILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BUT OTHER THAN A FEW EXTRA MORNING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
STRAY AFT SHOWER/TSTM SW...THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN THE
DAYS TO COME. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS BUT THE ASSOCIATED AXIS WILL
EXTEND NW TOWARD TN. THEREBY...THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK
LOOKS BASICALLY DRY.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...THERMAL WITH THERMAL RIDGING IN
PLACE...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES OR
SO ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS THE LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT JUST A TOUCH.

IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. A
SOUTHERLY MULTI-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL RETURN AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES TO RETURN.

THE EXT TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK WARMER THAN NORMAL AS UPPER
RIDGING...THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...HOLDS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      91  71  93  72 /  10  10  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    92  68  93  69 /  10  10  05  05
CROSSVILLE     84  62  86  65 /  10  10  05  05
COLUMBIA       92  69  93  70 /  10  05   0  05
LAWRENCEBURG   91  65  93  67 /  20  05   0  05
WAVERLY        92  68  93  70 /  10  10  05  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KOHX 260845
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED W-E FROM OK THROUGH IL. AT THE SFC...SFC
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SFC RIDGE WILL BE
INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BY ALLOWING DRIER AIR
TO WORK IN THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.

OTW...A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY STILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BUT OTHER THAN A FEW EXTRA MORNING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
STRAY AFT SHOWER/TSTM SW...THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN THE
DAYS TO COME. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS BUT THE ASSOCIATED AXIS WILL
EXTEND NW TOWARD TN. THEREBY...THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK
LOOKS BASICALLY DRY.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...THERMAL WITH THERMAL RIDGING IN
PLACE...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES OR
SO ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS THE LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT JUST A TOUCH.

IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. A
SOUTHERLY MULTI-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL RETURN AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES TO RETURN.

THE EXT TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK WARMER THAN NORMAL AS UPPER
RIDGING...THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...HOLDS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      91  71  93  72 /  10  10  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    92  68  93  69 /  10  10  05  05
CROSSVILLE     84  62  86  65 /  10  10  05  05
COLUMBIA       92  69  93  70 /  10  05   0  05
LAWRENCEBURG   91  65  93  67 /  20  05   0  05
WAVERLY        92  68  93  70 /  10  10  05  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KOHX 260845
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED W-E FROM OK THROUGH IL. AT THE SFC...SFC
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SFC RIDGE WILL BE
INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BY ALLOWING DRIER AIR
TO WORK IN THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.

OTW...A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY STILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BUT OTHER THAN A FEW EXTRA MORNING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
STRAY AFT SHOWER/TSTM SW...THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN THE
DAYS TO COME. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS BUT THE ASSOCIATED AXIS WILL
EXTEND NW TOWARD TN. THEREBY...THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK
LOOKS BASICALLY DRY.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...THERMAL WITH THERMAL RIDGING IN
PLACE...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES OR
SO ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS THE LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT JUST A TOUCH.

IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. A
SOUTHERLY MULTI-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL RETURN AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES TO RETURN.

THE EXT TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK WARMER THAN NORMAL AS UPPER
RIDGING...THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...HOLDS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      91  71  93  72 /  10  10  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    92  68  93  69 /  10  10  05  05
CROSSVILLE     84  62  86  65 /  10  10  05  05
COLUMBIA       92  69  93  70 /  10  05   0  05
LAWRENCEBURG   91  65  93  67 /  20  05   0  05
WAVERLY        92  68  93  70 /  10  10  05  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KMRX 260810
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
410 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE AREA. DEW POINT BOUNDARY CONTINUES ALONG
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE TO JUST OUTSIDE NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL BE IN THE
40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND STILL LOWER DEW POINTS WEDNESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS AGAIN FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL
SHIFT FARTHER EAST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             89  64  93  68 /   0   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  86  63  90  65 /   0   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       87  63  91  65 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  56  89  59 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON/TD




000
FXUS64 KMEG 260717
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
217 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BY FRIDAY...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER TROF TO MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND.

HAVE EXPANDED 20 POPS TO COVER THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH TODAY AS AN
EASTERLY WAVE COULD STILL SET OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST HAD LEFT NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI DRY. HOWEVER...00Z NAM INDICATES DEVELOPMENT COULD
OCCUR THERE AS WELL.

BEHIND THE EASTERLY WAVE...WINDS WILL TURN
AROUND TO THE EAST AND USHER IN LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA.
THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR HOT DAYS FOLLOWED BY COOLER NIGHTS.
IN ADDITION...LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES STAYING
BELOW 100 DEGREES. THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S. HOWEVER...LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
DRY AIR IN PLACE. ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THE SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 50 ACROSS THE AREA AS A RESULT.
CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR NEAR
THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AT LEAST TRY TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
MONDAY. HIGHS MAY RETURN TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE KMKL AND KJBR AREAS WHICH COULD LOWER
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE IS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN
TAFS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY EVENING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 260717
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
217 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BY FRIDAY...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER TROF TO MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND.

HAVE EXPANDED 20 POPS TO COVER THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH TODAY AS AN
EASTERLY WAVE COULD STILL SET OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST HAD LEFT NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI DRY. HOWEVER...00Z NAM INDICATES DEVELOPMENT COULD
OCCUR THERE AS WELL.

BEHIND THE EASTERLY WAVE...WINDS WILL TURN
AROUND TO THE EAST AND USHER IN LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA.
THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR HOT DAYS FOLLOWED BY COOLER NIGHTS.
IN ADDITION...LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES STAYING
BELOW 100 DEGREES. THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S. HOWEVER...LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
DRY AIR IN PLACE. ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THE SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 50 ACROSS THE AREA AS A RESULT.
CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR NEAR
THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AT LEAST TRY TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
MONDAY. HIGHS MAY RETURN TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE KMKL AND KJBR AREAS WHICH COULD LOWER
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE IS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN
TAFS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY EVENING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 260541
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
141 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS
WITH A DRY AIRMASS. LIGHT LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON



000
FXUS64 KMRX 260541
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
141 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS
WITH A DRY AIRMASS. LIGHT LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KMEG 260526
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1226 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

UPDATED THE ZONES ALLOWING THE HEAT INDEX ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.
HEAT INDEX READINGS HAVE DECREASED TO LESS THAN 105 DEGREES. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN MONROE COUNTY MS...BUT THESE SHOULD SOON
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. GRIDS LOOK GOOD AND NO CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

JCL

DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 334 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE VERY HOT
AND HUMID WEATHER IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AS WELL PRIOR TO SUNSET. ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

A DRIER AIRMASS USHERED IN BY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
FROM THE EAST ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD LOWER DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES OVER THESE AREAS WILL AGAIN BE HOT WITH SEASONABLY
HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS SHOULD AGAIN PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES
ABOVE 100 DEGREES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
PLAN TO ALLOW OUR HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS WE WILL
LIKELY STAY BELOW CRITERIA ON TUESDAY.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY WITH
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S...BUT WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE DRY
AND SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
UNDER WEAKER UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS
STATES INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DEEP GULF MOISTURE SHOULD SURGE
BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE INCREASED MOISTURE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY WITH GREATER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD DOWN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STORM
COVERAGE.

JLH

&&

.06Z TAF CYCLE...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE KMKL AND KJBR AREAS WHICH COULD LOWER
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE IS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN
TAFS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY EVENING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 260455
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1155 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING, WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
UNDERWAY. EXPECT SOME FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PERIOD, BUT THEN VFR WX AFTER 12-13Z AND GENERALLY LIGHT/CALM
WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 817 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

UPDATE...ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. SO, WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE 10% RANGE, BUT MENTION ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
06Z.

SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WORK
THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOS
TRENDS ARE TOO QUICK. THEREFORE, HAVE UPDATED TEMP AND DEW POINT
GRIDS TO REFLECT OUR SLIGHTLY MODIFIED EXPECTATIONS. HAVE ALSO
INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE LATE NIGHT SINCE TEMP/DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE PRETTY SLIM. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




000
FXUS64 KOHX 260455
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1155 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING, WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
UNDERWAY. EXPECT SOME FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PERIOD, BUT THEN VFR WX AFTER 12-13Z AND GENERALLY LIGHT/CALM
WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 817 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

UPDATE...ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. SO, WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE 10% RANGE, BUT MENTION ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
06Z.

SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WORK
THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOS
TRENDS ARE TOO QUICK. THEREFORE, HAVE UPDATED TEMP AND DEW POINT
GRIDS TO REFLECT OUR SLIGHTLY MODIFIED EXPECTATIONS. HAVE ALSO
INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE LATE NIGHT SINCE TEMP/DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE PRETTY SLIM. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KMRX 260125
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
925 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED ALONG THE EAST COAST...WITH A LARGE DEWPOINT GRADIENT
FROM THE CAROLINAS (MID TO UPPER 50S) WESTWARD ACROSS THE TN AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS (UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S). AREA RADARS REVEAL
NO CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...AS AN UPPER
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY CREATES A MID-LEVEL
CAPPING STABLE LAYER OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...AND WILL NOT
PLAN TO UPDATE THIS EVENING.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             65  90  65  93 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  87  62  91 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       64  88  61  92 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              55  85  53  88 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG



000
FXUS64 KMRX 260125
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
925 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED ALONG THE EAST COAST...WITH A LARGE DEWPOINT GRADIENT
FROM THE CAROLINAS (MID TO UPPER 50S) WESTWARD ACROSS THE TN AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS (UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S). AREA RADARS REVEAL
NO CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...AS AN UPPER
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY CREATES A MID-LEVEL
CAPPING STABLE LAYER OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...AND WILL NOT
PLAN TO UPDATE THIS EVENING.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             65  90  65  93 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  87  62  91 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       64  88  61  92 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              55  85  53  88 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG




000
FXUS64 KOHX 260117
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
817 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. SO, WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE 10% RANGE, BUT MENTION ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
06Z.

SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WORK
THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOS
TRENDS ARE TOO QUICK. THEREFORE, HAVE UPDATED TEMP AND DEW POINT
GRIDS TO REFLECT OUR SLIGHTLY MODIFIED EXPECTATIONS. HAVE ALSO
INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE LATE NIGHT SINCE TEMP/DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE PRETTY SLIM. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 260117
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
817 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. SO, WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE 10% RANGE, BUT MENTION ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
06Z.

SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WORK
THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOS
TRENDS ARE TOO QUICK. THEREFORE, HAVE UPDATED TEMP AND DEW POINT
GRIDS TO REFLECT OUR SLIGHTLY MODIFIED EXPECTATIONS. HAVE ALSO
INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE LATE NIGHT SINCE TEMP/DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE PRETTY SLIM. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 260117
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
817 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. SO, WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE 10% RANGE, BUT MENTION ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
06Z.

SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WORK
THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOS
TRENDS ARE TOO QUICK. THEREFORE, HAVE UPDATED TEMP AND DEW POINT
GRIDS TO REFLECT OUR SLIGHTLY MODIFIED EXPECTATIONS. HAVE ALSO
INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE LATE NIGHT SINCE TEMP/DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE PRETTY SLIM. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 260117
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
817 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. SO, WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE 10% RANGE, BUT MENTION ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
06Z.

SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WORK
THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOS
TRENDS ARE TOO QUICK. THEREFORE, HAVE UPDATED TEMP AND DEW POINT
GRIDS TO REFLECT OUR SLIGHTLY MODIFIED EXPECTATIONS. HAVE ALSO
INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE LATE NIGHT SINCE TEMP/DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE PRETTY SLIM. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 260115
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
815 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS STILL EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE MOS TRENDS ARE TOO QUICK. THEREFORE, HAVE UPDATED TEMP
AND DEW POINT GRIDS TO REFLECT OUR SLIGHTLY MODIFIED EXPECTATIONS.
HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE LATE NIGHT SINCE
TEMP/DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE PRETTY SLIM. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGE
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KMEG 260009 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
709 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED THE ZONES ALLOWING THE HEAT INDEX ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. HEAT
INDEX READINGS HAVE DECREASED TO LESS THAN 105 DEGREES. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN MONROE COUNTY MS...BUT THESE SHOULD SOON
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. GRIDS LOOK GOOD AND NO CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 334 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE VERY HOT
AND HUMID WEATHER IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AS WELL PRIOR TO SUNSET. ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

A DRIER AIRMASS USHERED IN BY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
FROM THE EAST ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD LOWER DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES OVER THESE AREAS WILL AGAIN BE HOT WITH SEASONABLY
HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS SHOULD AGAIN PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES
ABOVE 100 DEGREES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
PLAN TO ALLOW OUR HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS WE WILL
LIKELY STAY BELOW CRITERIA ON TUESDAY.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY WITH
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S...BUT WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE DRY
AND SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
UNDER WEAKER UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS
STATES INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DEEP GULF MOISTURE SHOULD SURGE
BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE INCREASED MOISTURE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY WITH GREATER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD DOWN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STORM
COVERAGE.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE KMKL AND KJBR AREAS WHICH COULD LOWER
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING AND WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TUESDAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 260009 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
709 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED THE ZONES ALLOWING THE HEAT INDEX ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. HEAT
INDEX READINGS HAVE DECREASED TO LESS THAN 105 DEGREES. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN MONROE COUNTY MS...BUT THESE SHOULD SOON
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. GRIDS LOOK GOOD AND NO CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 334 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE VERY HOT
AND HUMID WEATHER IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AS WELL PRIOR TO SUNSET. ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

A DRIER AIRMASS USHERED IN BY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
FROM THE EAST ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD LOWER DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES OVER THESE AREAS WILL AGAIN BE HOT WITH SEASONABLY
HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS SHOULD AGAIN PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES
ABOVE 100 DEGREES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
PLAN TO ALLOW OUR HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS WE WILL
LIKELY STAY BELOW CRITERIA ON TUESDAY.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY WITH
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S...BUT WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE DRY
AND SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
UNDER WEAKER UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS
STATES INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DEEP GULF MOISTURE SHOULD SURGE
BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE INCREASED MOISTURE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY WITH GREATER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD DOWN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STORM
COVERAGE.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE KMKL AND KJBR AREAS WHICH COULD LOWER
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING AND WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TUESDAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 252351
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
751 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.AVIATION...THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FINALLY GETS TO PARTICIPATE IN THE
SUPPRESSING ABILITIES OF A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS MEANS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WITH LITTLE THREAT OF INCLEMENT WEATHER FOR
FLIGHT OPERATIONS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME HIGH END MVFR
FOG AT TRI FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK AS LONG WAVE RADIATION
LEADS TO SOME SATURATION AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 252351
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
751 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.AVIATION...THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FINALLY GETS TO PARTICIPATE IN THE
SUPPRESSING ABILITIES OF A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS MEANS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WITH LITTLE THREAT OF INCLEMENT WEATHER FOR
FLIGHT OPERATIONS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME HIGH END MVFR
FOG AT TRI FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK AS LONG WAVE RADIATION
LEADS TO SOME SATURATION AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 252347
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
647 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED OVER
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS HOUR, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND ONLY
A COUPLE OF SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR. LOOK FOR DEW POINTS TO
BEGIN DROPPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT STILL EXPECT SOME
RADIATION FOG LATE TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF STORMS TOMORROW
GIVEN THE DRIER AIR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...IT WAS A TYPICALLY HOT AUGUST AFTERNOON IN MID TN. A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE BUBBLING UP WITHIN A CONVERGENCE ZONE
OVER THE PLATEAU...AND ADDITIONAL SCATTERED ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT QUICKLY WITH SUNSET...SO
NO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. LOW
TEMPS WILL FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PIVOT OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 90S. DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP
HUMIDITY LEVELS FROM BEING OPPRESSIVE...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING
TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT...BUT POPS WILL BE VERY LOW...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WHEN
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BE GREATEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AS A TROUGH
ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL SET UP A SSW FLOW OF
DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
TOTAL WASHOUT...BUT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. NOT LOOKING
FOR ANY SEVERE WX AT THIS TIME. THE DEEP MOISTURE WOULD SUPPORT
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR WX PLAYER
ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU 26/18Z. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DIURNAL BASED
INSTABILITY INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD RESULT IN ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA
THRU 26/02Z. PER USUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING POTENTIAL CKV/CSV...
MVFR TO IFR FOG FORMATION POSSIBLE. WITH A LITTLE MORE ENHANCED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE...BELIEVE ONLY SCT CU AND SCT/BKN CI WILL FORM
26/15Z-26/18Z.

31

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




000
FXUS64 KOHX 252347
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
647 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED OVER
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS HOUR, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND ONLY
A COUPLE OF SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR. LOOK FOR DEW POINTS TO
BEGIN DROPPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT STILL EXPECT SOME
RADIATION FOG LATE TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF STORMS TOMORROW
GIVEN THE DRIER AIR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...IT WAS A TYPICALLY HOT AUGUST AFTERNOON IN MID TN. A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE BUBBLING UP WITHIN A CONVERGENCE ZONE
OVER THE PLATEAU...AND ADDITIONAL SCATTERED ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT QUICKLY WITH SUNSET...SO
NO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. LOW
TEMPS WILL FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PIVOT OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 90S. DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP
HUMIDITY LEVELS FROM BEING OPPRESSIVE...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING
TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT...BUT POPS WILL BE VERY LOW...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WHEN
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BE GREATEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AS A TROUGH
ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL SET UP A SSW FLOW OF
DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
TOTAL WASHOUT...BUT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. NOT LOOKING
FOR ANY SEVERE WX AT THIS TIME. THE DEEP MOISTURE WOULD SUPPORT
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR WX PLAYER
ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU 26/18Z. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DIURNAL BASED
INSTABILITY INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD RESULT IN ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA
THRU 26/02Z. PER USUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING POTENTIAL CKV/CSV...
MVFR TO IFR FOG FORMATION POSSIBLE. WITH A LITTLE MORE ENHANCED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE...BELIEVE ONLY SCT CU AND SCT/BKN CI WILL FORM
26/15Z-26/18Z.

31

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




000
FXUS64 KOHX 252347
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
647 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED OVER
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS HOUR, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND ONLY
A COUPLE OF SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR. LOOK FOR DEW POINTS TO
BEGIN DROPPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT STILL EXPECT SOME
RADIATION FOG LATE TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF STORMS TOMORROW
GIVEN THE DRIER AIR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...IT WAS A TYPICALLY HOT AUGUST AFTERNOON IN MID TN. A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE BUBBLING UP WITHIN A CONVERGENCE ZONE
OVER THE PLATEAU...AND ADDITIONAL SCATTERED ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT QUICKLY WITH SUNSET...SO
NO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. LOW
TEMPS WILL FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PIVOT OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 90S. DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP
HUMIDITY LEVELS FROM BEING OPPRESSIVE...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING
TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT...BUT POPS WILL BE VERY LOW...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WHEN
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BE GREATEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AS A TROUGH
ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL SET UP A SSW FLOW OF
DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
TOTAL WASHOUT...BUT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. NOT LOOKING
FOR ANY SEVERE WX AT THIS TIME. THE DEEP MOISTURE WOULD SUPPORT
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR WX PLAYER
ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU 26/18Z. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DIURNAL BASED
INSTABILITY INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD RESULT IN ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA
THRU 26/02Z. PER USUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING POTENTIAL CKV/CSV...
MVFR TO IFR FOG FORMATION POSSIBLE. WITH A LITTLE MORE ENHANCED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE...BELIEVE ONLY SCT CU AND SCT/BKN CI WILL FORM
26/15Z-26/18Z.

31

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




000
FXUS64 KOHX 252347
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
647 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED OVER
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS HOUR, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND ONLY
A COUPLE OF SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR. LOOK FOR DEW POINTS TO
BEGIN DROPPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT STILL EXPECT SOME
RADIATION FOG LATE TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF STORMS TOMORROW
GIVEN THE DRIER AIR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...IT WAS A TYPICALLY HOT AUGUST AFTERNOON IN MID TN. A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE BUBBLING UP WITHIN A CONVERGENCE ZONE
OVER THE PLATEAU...AND ADDITIONAL SCATTERED ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT QUICKLY WITH SUNSET...SO
NO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. LOW
TEMPS WILL FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PIVOT OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 90S. DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP
HUMIDITY LEVELS FROM BEING OPPRESSIVE...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING
TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT...BUT POPS WILL BE VERY LOW...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WHEN
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BE GREATEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AS A TROUGH
ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL SET UP A SSW FLOW OF
DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
TOTAL WASHOUT...BUT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. NOT LOOKING
FOR ANY SEVERE WX AT THIS TIME. THE DEEP MOISTURE WOULD SUPPORT
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR WX PLAYER
ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU 26/18Z. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DIURNAL BASED
INSTABILITY INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD RESULT IN ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA
THRU 26/02Z. PER USUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING POTENTIAL CKV/CSV...
MVFR TO IFR FOG FORMATION POSSIBLE. WITH A LITTLE MORE ENHANCED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE...BELIEVE ONLY SCT CU AND SCT/BKN CI WILL FORM
26/15Z-26/18Z.

31

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




000
FXUS64 KMEG 252326
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
626 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE VERY HOT AND
HUMID WEATHER IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AS WELL PRIOR TO SUNSET. ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

A DRIER AIRMASS USHERED IN BY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
FROM THE EAST ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD LOWER DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES OVER THESE AREAS WILL AGAIN BE HOT WITH SEASONABLY
HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS SHOULD AGAIN PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES
ABOVE 100 DEGREES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
PLAN TO ALLOW OUR HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS WE WILL
LIKELY STAY BELOW CRITERIA ON TUESDAY.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY WITH
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S...BUT WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE DRY
AND SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
UNDER WEAKER UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS
STATES INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DEEP GULF MOISTURE SHOULD SURGE
BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE INCREASED MOISTURE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY WITH GREATER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD DOWN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STORM
COVERAGE.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE KMKL AND KJBR AREAS WHICH COULD LOWER
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING AND WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TUESDAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BENTON MS-COAHOMA-
     DESOTO-LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-
     TUNICA-YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 252326
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
626 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE VERY HOT AND
HUMID WEATHER IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AS WELL PRIOR TO SUNSET. ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

A DRIER AIRMASS USHERED IN BY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
FROM THE EAST ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD LOWER DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES OVER THESE AREAS WILL AGAIN BE HOT WITH SEASONABLY
HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS SHOULD AGAIN PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES
ABOVE 100 DEGREES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
PLAN TO ALLOW OUR HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS WE WILL
LIKELY STAY BELOW CRITERIA ON TUESDAY.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY WITH
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S...BUT WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE DRY
AND SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
UNDER WEAKER UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS
STATES INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DEEP GULF MOISTURE SHOULD SURGE
BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE INCREASED MOISTURE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY WITH GREATER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD DOWN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STORM
COVERAGE.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE KMKL AND KJBR AREAS WHICH COULD LOWER
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING AND WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TUESDAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BENTON MS-COAHOMA-
     DESOTO-LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-
     TUNICA-YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 252326
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
626 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE VERY HOT AND
HUMID WEATHER IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AS WELL PRIOR TO SUNSET. ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

A DRIER AIRMASS USHERED IN BY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
FROM THE EAST ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD LOWER DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES OVER THESE AREAS WILL AGAIN BE HOT WITH SEASONABLY
HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS SHOULD AGAIN PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES
ABOVE 100 DEGREES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
PLAN TO ALLOW OUR HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS WE WILL
LIKELY STAY BELOW CRITERIA ON TUESDAY.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY WITH
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S...BUT WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE DRY
AND SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
UNDER WEAKER UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS
STATES INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DEEP GULF MOISTURE SHOULD SURGE
BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE INCREASED MOISTURE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY WITH GREATER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD DOWN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STORM
COVERAGE.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE KMKL AND KJBR AREAS WHICH COULD LOWER
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING AND WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TUESDAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BENTON MS-COAHOMA-
     DESOTO-LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-
     TUNICA-YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 252326
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
626 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE VERY HOT AND
HUMID WEATHER IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AS WELL PRIOR TO SUNSET. ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

A DRIER AIRMASS USHERED IN BY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
FROM THE EAST ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD LOWER DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES OVER THESE AREAS WILL AGAIN BE HOT WITH SEASONABLY
HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS SHOULD AGAIN PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES
ABOVE 100 DEGREES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
PLAN TO ALLOW OUR HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS WE WILL
LIKELY STAY BELOW CRITERIA ON TUESDAY.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY WITH
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S...BUT WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE DRY
AND SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
UNDER WEAKER UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS
STATES INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DEEP GULF MOISTURE SHOULD SURGE
BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE INCREASED MOISTURE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY WITH GREATER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD DOWN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STORM
COVERAGE.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE KMKL AND KJBR AREAS WHICH COULD LOWER
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING AND WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TUESDAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BENTON MS-COAHOMA-
     DESOTO-LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-
     TUNICA-YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 252034
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
334 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE VERY HOT AND
HUMID WEATHER IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AS WELL PRIOR TO SUNSET. ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

A DRIER AIRMASS USHERED IN BY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
FROM THE EAST ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD LOWER DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES OVER THESE AREAS WILL AGAIN BE HOT WITH SEASONABLY
HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS SHOULD AGAIN PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES
ABOVE 100 DEGREES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
PLAN TO ALLOW OUR HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS WE WILL
LIKELY STAY BELOW CRITERIA ON TUESDAY.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY WITH
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S...BUT WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE DRY
AND SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
UNDER WEAKER UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS
STATES INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DEEP GULF MOISTURE SHOULD SURGE
BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE INCREASED MOISTURE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY WITH GREATER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD DOWN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STORM
COVERAGE.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH VCTS INCLUDED AT ALL SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE
REALIZED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...AND WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EVIDENT BY SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT KMKL AND KJBR...HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR CAT VSBYS AT THOSE SITES. WINDS WILL BE FROM
A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AT UNDER 5 KTS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AGAIN.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BENTON MS-COAHOMA-
     DESOTO-LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-
     TUNICA-YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 251934
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
234 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...IT WAS A TYPICALLY HOT AUGUST AFTERNOON IN MID TN. A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE BUBBLING UP WITHIN A CONVERGENCE ZONE
OVER THE PLATEAU...AND ADDITIONAL SCATTERED ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT QUICKLY WITH SUNSET...SO
NO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. LOW
TEMPS WILL FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PIVOT OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 90S. DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP
HUMIDITY LEVELS FROM BEING OPPRESSIVE...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING
TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT...BUT POPS WILL BE VERY LOW...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WHEN
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BE GREATEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AS A TROUGH
ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL SET UP A SSW FLOW OF
DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
TOTAL WASHOUT...BUT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. NOT LOOKING
FOR ANY SEVERE WX AT THIS TIME. THE DEEP MOISTURE WOULD SUPPORT
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR WX PLAYER
ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU 26/18Z. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DIURNAL BASED
INSTABILITY INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD RESULT IN ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA
THRU 26/02Z. PER USUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING POTENTIAL CKV/CSV...
MVFR TO IFR FOG FORMATION POSSIBLE. WITH A LITTLE MORE ENHANCED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE...BELIEVE ONLY SCT CU AND SCT/BKN CI WILL FORM
26/15Z-26/18Z.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      72  91  70  93 /  10  10  10  05
CLARKSVILLE    71  91  68  91 /  10  10  10  05
CROSSVILLE     65  83  62  85 /  10  10  10  05
COLUMBIA       69  89  66  92 /  10  10  05   0
LAWRENCEBURG   69  88  65  91 /  10  20  05   0
WAVERLY        71  91  67  92 /  10  10  10  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 251934
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
234 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...IT WAS A TYPICALLY HOT AUGUST AFTERNOON IN MID TN. A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE BUBBLING UP WITHIN A CONVERGENCE ZONE
OVER THE PLATEAU...AND ADDITIONAL SCATTERED ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT QUICKLY WITH SUNSET...SO
NO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. LOW
TEMPS WILL FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PIVOT OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 90S. DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP
HUMIDITY LEVELS FROM BEING OPPRESSIVE...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING
TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT...BUT POPS WILL BE VERY LOW...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WHEN
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BE GREATEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AS A TROUGH
ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL SET UP A SSW FLOW OF
DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
TOTAL WASHOUT...BUT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. NOT LOOKING
FOR ANY SEVERE WX AT THIS TIME. THE DEEP MOISTURE WOULD SUPPORT
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR WX PLAYER
ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU 26/18Z. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DIURNAL BASED
INSTABILITY INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD RESULT IN ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA
THRU 26/02Z. PER USUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING POTENTIAL CKV/CSV...
MVFR TO IFR FOG FORMATION POSSIBLE. WITH A LITTLE MORE ENHANCED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE...BELIEVE ONLY SCT CU AND SCT/BKN CI WILL FORM
26/15Z-26/18Z.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      72  91  70  93 /  10  10  10  05
CLARKSVILLE    71  91  68  91 /  10  10  10  05
CROSSVILLE     65  83  62  85 /  10  10  10  05
COLUMBIA       69  89  66  92 /  10  10  05   0
LAWRENCEBURG   69  88  65  91 /  10  20  05   0
WAVERLY        71  91  67  92 /  10  10  10  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 251934
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
234 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...IT WAS A TYPICALLY HOT AUGUST AFTERNOON IN MID TN. A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE BUBBLING UP WITHIN A CONVERGENCE ZONE
OVER THE PLATEAU...AND ADDITIONAL SCATTERED ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT QUICKLY WITH SUNSET...SO
NO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. LOW
TEMPS WILL FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PIVOT OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 90S. DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP
HUMIDITY LEVELS FROM BEING OPPRESSIVE...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING
TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT...BUT POPS WILL BE VERY LOW...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WHEN
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BE GREATEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AS A TROUGH
ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL SET UP A SSW FLOW OF
DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
TOTAL WASHOUT...BUT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. NOT LOOKING
FOR ANY SEVERE WX AT THIS TIME. THE DEEP MOISTURE WOULD SUPPORT
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR WX PLAYER
ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU 26/18Z. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DIURNAL BASED
INSTABILITY INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD RESULT IN ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA
THRU 26/02Z. PER USUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING POTENTIAL CKV/CSV...
MVFR TO IFR FOG FORMATION POSSIBLE. WITH A LITTLE MORE ENHANCED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE...BELIEVE ONLY SCT CU AND SCT/BKN CI WILL FORM
26/15Z-26/18Z.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      72  91  70  93 /  10  10  10  05
CLARKSVILLE    71  91  68  91 /  10  10  10  05
CROSSVILLE     65  83  62  85 /  10  10  10  05
COLUMBIA       69  89  66  92 /  10  10  05   0
LAWRENCEBURG   69  88  65  91 /  10  20  05   0
WAVERLY        71  91  67  92 /  10  10  10  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 251934
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
234 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...IT WAS A TYPICALLY HOT AUGUST AFTERNOON IN MID TN. A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE BUBBLING UP WITHIN A CONVERGENCE ZONE
OVER THE PLATEAU...AND ADDITIONAL SCATTERED ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT QUICKLY WITH SUNSET...SO
NO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. LOW
TEMPS WILL FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PIVOT OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 90S. DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP
HUMIDITY LEVELS FROM BEING OPPRESSIVE...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING
TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT...BUT POPS WILL BE VERY LOW...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WHEN
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BE GREATEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AS A TROUGH
ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL SET UP A SSW FLOW OF
DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
TOTAL WASHOUT...BUT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. NOT LOOKING
FOR ANY SEVERE WX AT THIS TIME. THE DEEP MOISTURE WOULD SUPPORT
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR WX PLAYER
ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU 26/18Z. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DIURNAL BASED
INSTABILITY INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD RESULT IN ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA
THRU 26/02Z. PER USUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING POTENTIAL CKV/CSV...
MVFR TO IFR FOG FORMATION POSSIBLE. WITH A LITTLE MORE ENHANCED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE...BELIEVE ONLY SCT CU AND SCT/BKN CI WILL FORM
26/15Z-26/18Z.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      72  91  70  93 /  10  10  10  05
CLARKSVILLE    71  91  68  91 /  10  10  10  05
CROSSVILLE     65  83  62  85 /  10  10  10  05
COLUMBIA       69  89  66  92 /  10  10  05   0
LAWRENCEBURG   69  88  65  91 /  10  20  05   0
WAVERLY        71  91  67  92 /  10  10  10  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 251915
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT...WHICH WILL PROMOTE A CLEARING SKY WITH
THE DRIER AIR THAT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THE CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEYS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE...ALONG WITH AN
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE PLATEAU. AS A RESULT OF THE MOSTLY
CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT...AND THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER TONIGHT AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AREA
LAKES/RIVERS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF THIS IN THE FORECAST
AFTER 06Z. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BRING HIGHER TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY...IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON. A STRONG
CAP ALOFT WILL ALSO PREVENT ANY CONVECTION FROM FIRING...SO HAVE A
KEPT A DRY FORECAST AS WELL.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS ALSO BUILT INTO THE
AREA...MAKING FOR QUIET WEATHER. LOOKS LIKE THIS PATTERN IS SLOW TO
CHANGE...BUT FINALLY LATE IN THE WEEK...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES
TO THE EAST...MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO ROUGHLY BE SATURDAY
NIGHT...SUNDAY...AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING IS A LITTLE
IFFY...MODELS AGREE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD...BUT
WHEN THE MOIST AXIS WILL BE OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH THE LIFT IS
NOT WELL-AGREED UPON. NOT LOOKING LIKE SEVERE STORMS AS THE
DYNAMICS IS VERY WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR QPF IN THESE
PERIODS...HELD OFF ON THURSDAY FOR ANY QPF...DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOT
IN THE AREA YET...AND MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEPT THE AREA DRY.

FOR TEMPS...LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE HEATING UP PRETTY WELL UNDER THE
RIDGE THIS WEEK...THEN COOLING DOWN SOME OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO
CLOUDS AND WETTER CONDITIONS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             65  90  65  93 /   0   0  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  87  62  91 /   0   0  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       64  88  61  92 /   0   0  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              56  85  53  88 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP/GM



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