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000
FXUS65 KSLC 240454
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
954 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS AMPLIFYING OFF THE WEST COAST AND A
DEEP TROF COVERS THE CENTRAL US. STRONG NWLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES IS OVER OUR CWA WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROF DROPPING
OUT OF ID AND INTO NRN UT.

THIS TROF WILL GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SNOW
ACROSS THE NRN CWA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW TO ALL VALLEY FLOORS AND EXPECT SUFFICIENT ACCUMULATION
ON ROADS IN THE CACHE VALLEY TO IMPACT TRAVEL THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

THE REST OF THE WASATCH FRONT VALLEYS WILL ALSO SEE SNOW BUT
SLIGHTLY WARMER SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH ROADWAY
ACCUMULATION. LOCAL BRIEF SLUSHY CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN PERIODS
OF HEAVIER SNOW BUT IT SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH IMPACT ON TRAVEL.
STILL...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR IMPACT ON THE MORNING COMMUTE
IN THESE AREAS AS WELL.

ROADWAYS THROUGH THE WASATCH MTNS...MT VALLEYS AND WY ZONES WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO HAVE SNOW ACCUMULATION AND EXPECT TRAVEL
IMPACTS TO BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD IN THESE AREAS. GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO CREATE DRIFTING SNOW AND LOWER VISIBILITIES IN THE MTNS
AND ACROSS WY ADDING TO THE IMPACT. EXISTING WINTER WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS LOOK ON TRACK AND PLAN NO CHANGES.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY BY MIDDAY MONDAY AS THE
UPSTREAM RIDGE EXPANDS EWD AND SUBSIDENCE BEGINS. MOISTURE
STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE ARRIVES IN NRN UT TUE AND THE WARM
ADVECTION NW FLOW SHOULD WRING OUT SOME PRECIP. THE WARMING
AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN RAIN...OR SNOW RAPIDLY CHANGING TO RAIN
IN THE VALLEYS.

NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS BELOW 7000FT WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF IFR VIS IN SNOW ARE
EXPECTED STARTING AROUND 08Z-10Z ENDING AROUND 16Z MONDAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 11-13Z THEN
SWITCH TO NORTHERLY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ006-010.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ007>009.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ001.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ021.

&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 240454
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
954 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS AMPLIFYING OFF THE WEST COAST AND A
DEEP TROF COVERS THE CENTRAL US. STRONG NWLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES IS OVER OUR CWA WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROF DROPPING
OUT OF ID AND INTO NRN UT.

THIS TROF WILL GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SNOW
ACROSS THE NRN CWA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW TO ALL VALLEY FLOORS AND EXPECT SUFFICIENT ACCUMULATION
ON ROADS IN THE CACHE VALLEY TO IMPACT TRAVEL THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

THE REST OF THE WASATCH FRONT VALLEYS WILL ALSO SEE SNOW BUT
SLIGHTLY WARMER SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH ROADWAY
ACCUMULATION. LOCAL BRIEF SLUSHY CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN PERIODS
OF HEAVIER SNOW BUT IT SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH IMPACT ON TRAVEL.
STILL...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR IMPACT ON THE MORNING COMMUTE
IN THESE AREAS AS WELL.

ROADWAYS THROUGH THE WASATCH MTNS...MT VALLEYS AND WY ZONES WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO HAVE SNOW ACCUMULATION AND EXPECT TRAVEL
IMPACTS TO BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD IN THESE AREAS. GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO CREATE DRIFTING SNOW AND LOWER VISIBILITIES IN THE MTNS
AND ACROSS WY ADDING TO THE IMPACT. EXISTING WINTER WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS LOOK ON TRACK AND PLAN NO CHANGES.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY BY MIDDAY MONDAY AS THE
UPSTREAM RIDGE EXPANDS EWD AND SUBSIDENCE BEGINS. MOISTURE
STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE ARRIVES IN NRN UT TUE AND THE WARM
ADVECTION NW FLOW SHOULD WRING OUT SOME PRECIP. THE WARMING
AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN RAIN...OR SNOW RAPIDLY CHANGING TO RAIN
IN THE VALLEYS.

NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS BELOW 7000FT WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF IFR VIS IN SNOW ARE
EXPECTED STARTING AROUND 08Z-10Z ENDING AROUND 16Z MONDAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 11-13Z THEN
SWITCH TO NORTHERLY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ006-010.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ007>009.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ001.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ021.

&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 232303
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
403 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)...DEEP...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN UTAH...BUT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION COLOCATED WITH A
170KT+ JET STREAK WILL HELP TO REDEVELOP SNOW ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT. SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ADJACENT VALLEYS OF NORTHERN UTAH...IN PARTICULAR THE
CACHE VALLEY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THIS SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS THE CACHE...LESS CONCERN THIS SNOW WILL
IMPACT THE COMMUTE FOR THE WASATCH FRONT. ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE CACHE VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED IN LOCATIONS ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT THAT RECEIVE
HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW...ROADS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SLUSHY FOR A
TIME DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

STRONG WINDS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR UINTA
COUNTY WYOMING...WITH 700MB WINDS REACHING 50KTS FOR AT TIME
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THIS ZONE FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH COULD IMPACT TRAVEL
DURING THIS TIME.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING...STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO
MANY LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH...PARTICULARLY THE MOUNTAINS. THE
MIDLEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MODIFY 700MB
TEMPERATURES FROM -7C OR SO ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT EARLY
TUESDAY TO NEAR -2C BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
MIDLEVEL WARMING...ANY SNOW IN THE VALLEYS WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO RAIN THROUGH THE DAY.

THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THIS STORM CYCLE.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z THURSDAY)...THE LARGE RIDGE LOOKS TO
FLATTEN A BIT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT SHOWS NO SIGNS OF
SHIFTING FROM ITS POSITION CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...SO
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FLATTENING MAY ALLOW SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR TO ENTER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHICH COULD
KEEP TRENDS IN THE DAYTIME HIGHS RELATIVELY FLAT DESPITE
OCCASIONAL BETTER MIXING...WITH INCREASING ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
AREA.

BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EVEN FURTHER
SOUTH...OPENING UP THE REGION TO A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE ZONAL
FLOW. THAT SAID...ANY DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO STAY NEAR THE
IDAHO BORDER OR NORTHWARD...SO HAVE KEPT ANY MENTIONABLE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. BEYOND DAY 7...MODELS INDICATE THE
PATTERN COULD GET EVEN MORE PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
A DEEPER TROUGH IMPACTING THE AREA ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS BELOW 7000FT ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AT THE
SLC TERMINAL BETWEEN 23Z AND 02Z...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF PERIODS OF
IFR SNOW BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER 16Z MONDAY. THE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST IS RELATIVELY
LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THE MOMENT IS FOR
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z...WITH
NORTHERLIES RETURNING BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z MONDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ006-010.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR UTZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ007>009.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR WYZ021.

&&

$$

KRUSE/SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 232303
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
403 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)...DEEP...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN UTAH...BUT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION COLOCATED WITH A
170KT+ JET STREAK WILL HELP TO REDEVELOP SNOW ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT. SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ADJACENT VALLEYS OF NORTHERN UTAH...IN PARTICULAR THE
CACHE VALLEY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THIS SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS THE CACHE...LESS CONCERN THIS SNOW WILL
IMPACT THE COMMUTE FOR THE WASATCH FRONT. ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE CACHE VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED IN LOCATIONS ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT THAT RECEIVE
HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW...ROADS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SLUSHY FOR A
TIME DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

STRONG WINDS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR UINTA
COUNTY WYOMING...WITH 700MB WINDS REACHING 50KTS FOR AT TIME
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THIS ZONE FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH COULD IMPACT TRAVEL
DURING THIS TIME.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING...STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO
MANY LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH...PARTICULARLY THE MOUNTAINS. THE
MIDLEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MODIFY 700MB
TEMPERATURES FROM -7C OR SO ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT EARLY
TUESDAY TO NEAR -2C BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
MIDLEVEL WARMING...ANY SNOW IN THE VALLEYS WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO RAIN THROUGH THE DAY.

THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THIS STORM CYCLE.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z THURSDAY)...THE LARGE RIDGE LOOKS TO
FLATTEN A BIT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT SHOWS NO SIGNS OF
SHIFTING FROM ITS POSITION CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...SO
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FLATTENING MAY ALLOW SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR TO ENTER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHICH COULD
KEEP TRENDS IN THE DAYTIME HIGHS RELATIVELY FLAT DESPITE
OCCASIONAL BETTER MIXING...WITH INCREASING ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
AREA.

BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EVEN FURTHER
SOUTH...OPENING UP THE REGION TO A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE ZONAL
FLOW. THAT SAID...ANY DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO STAY NEAR THE
IDAHO BORDER OR NORTHWARD...SO HAVE KEPT ANY MENTIONABLE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. BEYOND DAY 7...MODELS INDICATE THE
PATTERN COULD GET EVEN MORE PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
A DEEPER TROUGH IMPACTING THE AREA ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS BELOW 7000FT ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AT THE
SLC TERMINAL BETWEEN 23Z AND 02Z...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF PERIODS OF
IFR SNOW BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER 16Z MONDAY. THE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST IS RELATIVELY
LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THE MOMENT IS FOR
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z...WITH
NORTHERLIES RETURNING BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z MONDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ006-010.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR UTZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ007>009.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR WYZ021.

&&

$$

KRUSE/SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 231652
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
952 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEEP...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW IS
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CWA...BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT AND THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN UTAH SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS WELL AS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AS THE SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING...EXPECT MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
WANE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

BIGGEST QUESTION THIS MORNING IS WHETHER TO CANCEL THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY THE
WASATCH PLATEAU AND BOOKCLIFFS. GIVEN THAT LIGHT SNOW IS ONGOING
ACROSS THESE AREAS AT THE CURRENT TIME...WILL WAIT A FEW
HOURS...BUT CANCELLATION FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LOOKS LIKELY
LATER THIS MORNING.

NEXT QUESTION WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. AN INITIAL REVIEW OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE 12Z GFS HAS SHIFTED A BIT WEST WITH THE PATH OF THE
SHORTWAVE...WHICH WOULD INDICATE A HIGHER THREAT OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH. THIS MAY IMPACT THE MORNING
COMMUTE BUT WILL WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA TO SEE IF OTHER
MODELS TREND FURTHER WEST AS WELL. WILL ASSESS THE NEED FOR
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AT THAT TIME.

UPDATED THE POP/WX GRIDS FOR THE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON TO DECREASE POPS IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN AN END
TO PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. OVER THE PAST HALF AN
HOUR...SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE RAPIDLY IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY SO MAY NEED TO UPDATE A BIT LATER TO LOWER POPS
FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE
7000FT BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT CEILINGS
REMAIN BELOW THAT LEVEL THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. THERE IS ALSO A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z...BUT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
SNOW WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CREATE IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ006-010.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ007>009.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ517.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

KRUSE/SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 231652
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
952 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEEP...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW IS
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CWA...BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT AND THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN UTAH SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS WELL AS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AS THE SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING...EXPECT MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
WANE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

BIGGEST QUESTION THIS MORNING IS WHETHER TO CANCEL THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY THE
WASATCH PLATEAU AND BOOKCLIFFS. GIVEN THAT LIGHT SNOW IS ONGOING
ACROSS THESE AREAS AT THE CURRENT TIME...WILL WAIT A FEW
HOURS...BUT CANCELLATION FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LOOKS LIKELY
LATER THIS MORNING.

NEXT QUESTION WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. AN INITIAL REVIEW OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE 12Z GFS HAS SHIFTED A BIT WEST WITH THE PATH OF THE
SHORTWAVE...WHICH WOULD INDICATE A HIGHER THREAT OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH. THIS MAY IMPACT THE MORNING
COMMUTE BUT WILL WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA TO SEE IF OTHER
MODELS TREND FURTHER WEST AS WELL. WILL ASSESS THE NEED FOR
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AT THAT TIME.

UPDATED THE POP/WX GRIDS FOR THE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON TO DECREASE POPS IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN AN END
TO PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. OVER THE PAST HALF AN
HOUR...SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE RAPIDLY IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY SO MAY NEED TO UPDATE A BIT LATER TO LOWER POPS
FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE
7000FT BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT CEILINGS
REMAIN BELOW THAT LEVEL THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. THERE IS ALSO A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z...BUT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
SNOW WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CREATE IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ006-010.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ007>009.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ517.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

KRUSE/SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 231225
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
525 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN
UTAH WILL BRING SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THIS
MORNING. THE LAST PIECE OF THIS WEEKENDS STORMS WILL ARRIVE OVER
NORTHERN UTAH FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z THURSDAY)...A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE IDAHO
BORDER AT TIME IS GENERATING A FAIRLY ACTIVE AREA OF CONVECTIVE
SNOWS ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WASATCH MOUNTAINS
AND WASATCH FRONT. THE COLDEST AIR OF THIS WEEKENDS STORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND WEAK DYNAMIC
LIFT WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE PASSING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAIN OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING.

THE LAST PIECE OF THIS WEEKENDS WINTER STORM CURRENTLY ALONG THE
BRITCOL COAST WILL DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS DIGGING
WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING TAKING PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WEST OF 130W BEGINNING LATER TODAY. A SUBTLE
DIFFERENCE EXISTS BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF IN TERMS OF THE
TRAJECTORY OF THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE. BOTH MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
WITH THE GFS TAKING A MORE DIRECT PATH THROUGH NORTHERN
UTAH...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST THROUGH WESTERN
WYOMING AND NORTHEAST UTAH.

BASED IN PART ON THE STRONG AND FAIRLY RAPID RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE END OF
THE STORM CYCLE. WILL CONCENTRATE THE BEST THREAT FOR HEAVIER
SNOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WASATCH RANGE...THEN EAST
INTO THE UINTA MOUNTAINS. THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WASATCH FRONT
ALONG WITH THE CACHE VALLEY WILL ALSO DO QUITE WELL LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL LEAVE ALL MOUNTAIN WARNING/ADVISORIES IN PLACE WITH THE EARLY
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. HAVE DROPPED THE ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST
WYOMING AS A FAIRLY LONG BREAK IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED. WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES FOR THE
URBAN AREAS OF NORTHERN UTAH AND AGAIN FOR SOUTHWEST WYOMING IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES.

BUILDING HEIGHTS BEGINNING LATE MONDAY WILL DRIVE THE LAST OF THE
SNOW OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A MOIST AND FAIRLY DEEP LAYER
ANTICYCLONIC WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SETTING ON TUESDAY WILL BRING
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE FAR NORTH WHERE THE
WARM ADVECTION IS STRONGEST LATE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUED BUILDING OF HEIGHTS SHOULD NUDGE ANY PRECIP NORTH OF THE
STATE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ABOVE NORMAL AS A COUPLE OF CLOUDY NIGHTS LEADING UP TO
THURSDAY SHOULD KEEP THE INVERSION FROM BECOMING ENTRENCHED AND
THEREFORE REASONABLE MIXING CAN EASILY GET OUR TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE CWA.

A WEAK SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACCORDING THE 00Z GFS...BUT THE EC DID NOT SHOW
THIS. THE LATEST 06Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF AND SO THE VERY LOW POPS
L0OKS TO BE THE RIGHT DIRECTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...AT THE SLC TERMINAL...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 16-17Z. TEMPORARY REDUCTION TO
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE SHOWERS. WINDS WILL
BE NORTHERLY AT UNDER 10 MPH...EXCEPT COULD GUST TO 20 MPH WHEN
ANY SNOW SHOWER IS NEARBY. CIGS SHOULD EXCEED 7K FT AGL AFTER 17Z
WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LINGERING THROUGH 19Z.


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ006-010.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ007>009.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ517.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 230425
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
925 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COLD UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FRONTAL BAND CROSSED THE NRN CWA LATE AFTN THRU
EARLY EVE WITH PRECIP CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS JUST
BEFORE IT ENDED BUT NO ACCUMULATION OCCURRED ON VALLEY ROADS. THE
NRN MOUNTAINS AND MTN VALLEYS HAD A FAIRLY INTENSE PERIOD OF
HEAVY SNOW.

THE BAND IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL AND
SWRN UT AND THE FRONT HAS ALREADY REACHED MILFORD. PRECIP WITH IT
IS STILL LIKELY RAIN IN MOST VALLEYS THAT WILL BE SWITCHING TO
SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER TIME. PRECIP HAS BEEN FALLING AS SNOW
HOWEVER IN THE CASTLE COUNTRY VALLEYS NEAR PRICE SINCE MID AFTN
LIKELY DUE TO TRAPPED COLD AIR AND SOME ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN
OCCURRING ON ROADWAYS IN THAT AREA. THIS PRECIP SHOULD END ONCE
THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE
TRAPPED COLD AIRMASS NOT LONG FROM NOW. ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND
SRN UT THE THREAT OF ANY VALLEY TRAVEL IMPACTS REMAINS LOW AND NO
ADVISORIES PLANNED. THE BAND SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY SUNDAY.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TO IMPACT THE CWA CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL ID TO NERN NV AND IS SLIDING SEWD. THIS SHOULD SPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS BACK INTO NRN UT AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT CURRENT SCATTERED
COVERAGE TO EXPAND AS IT REACHES THE WASATCH FRONT AND CROSSES
OVER THE GSL. THIS SHOULD BE ALL SNOW AND COULD RESULT IN LOCAL
TRAVEL IMPACTS IN THE VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WHERE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR.

LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED BREAK IN THE PRECIP WILL OCCUR
TOMORROW AFTN ONCE THIS NEXT WAVE PASSES AS RIDGING IS A LITTLE
MORE AMPLIFIED BETWEEN IT AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE CURRENTLY
NEARING THE BRITCOL COAST. THIS WAVE SHOULD ALSO BRING MORE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NRN CWA BETWEEN ABOUT 06Z AND 18Z MON AND
WILL PROBABLY HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACT ON THE MON MORNING
COMMUTE.

CURRENT SUITE OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO
CHANGES PLANNED. DID CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY AS WINDS DIMINISHED
FAIRLY RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

PRECIP ENDS QUICKLY BY MON AFTN AS UPSTREAM RIDGING MOVES IN. THE
LATEST GFS IS A LITTLE WETTER AGAIN IN THE WARM ADVECTION NW FLOW
FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT BUT THIS WOULD LIKELY STILL NOT GENERATE VERY
MUCH PRECIP.

UPDATED EARLIER TO DROP WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE AND LOWERED WIND
SPEEDS. ALSO LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE N FOR THE EVE.

&&

.AVIATION...AT THE SLC TERMINAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
CIGS ABV 7000 FT THROUGH ABOUT 08-09Z WITH CIGS FALLING BELOW
6000 FT AFTER THAT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCASIONALLY CROSS THE
AIRFIELD BETWEEN ABOUT 08Z AND 14Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTHERLY BUT COULD
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHERLY AFTER ABOUT 11-12Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ006-010.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ007>009.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ517.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ021.

&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 230425
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
925 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COLD UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FRONTAL BAND CROSSED THE NRN CWA LATE AFTN THRU
EARLY EVE WITH PRECIP CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS JUST
BEFORE IT ENDED BUT NO ACCUMULATION OCCURRED ON VALLEY ROADS. THE
NRN MOUNTAINS AND MTN VALLEYS HAD A FAIRLY INTENSE PERIOD OF
HEAVY SNOW.

THE BAND IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL AND
SWRN UT AND THE FRONT HAS ALREADY REACHED MILFORD. PRECIP WITH IT
IS STILL LIKELY RAIN IN MOST VALLEYS THAT WILL BE SWITCHING TO
SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER TIME. PRECIP HAS BEEN FALLING AS SNOW
HOWEVER IN THE CASTLE COUNTRY VALLEYS NEAR PRICE SINCE MID AFTN
LIKELY DUE TO TRAPPED COLD AIR AND SOME ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN
OCCURRING ON ROADWAYS IN THAT AREA. THIS PRECIP SHOULD END ONCE
THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE
TRAPPED COLD AIRMASS NOT LONG FROM NOW. ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND
SRN UT THE THREAT OF ANY VALLEY TRAVEL IMPACTS REMAINS LOW AND NO
ADVISORIES PLANNED. THE BAND SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY SUNDAY.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TO IMPACT THE CWA CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL ID TO NERN NV AND IS SLIDING SEWD. THIS SHOULD SPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS BACK INTO NRN UT AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT CURRENT SCATTERED
COVERAGE TO EXPAND AS IT REACHES THE WASATCH FRONT AND CROSSES
OVER THE GSL. THIS SHOULD BE ALL SNOW AND COULD RESULT IN LOCAL
TRAVEL IMPACTS IN THE VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WHERE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR.

LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED BREAK IN THE PRECIP WILL OCCUR
TOMORROW AFTN ONCE THIS NEXT WAVE PASSES AS RIDGING IS A LITTLE
MORE AMPLIFIED BETWEEN IT AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE CURRENTLY
NEARING THE BRITCOL COAST. THIS WAVE SHOULD ALSO BRING MORE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NRN CWA BETWEEN ABOUT 06Z AND 18Z MON AND
WILL PROBABLY HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACT ON THE MON MORNING
COMMUTE.

CURRENT SUITE OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO
CHANGES PLANNED. DID CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY AS WINDS DIMINISHED
FAIRLY RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

PRECIP ENDS QUICKLY BY MON AFTN AS UPSTREAM RIDGING MOVES IN. THE
LATEST GFS IS A LITTLE WETTER AGAIN IN THE WARM ADVECTION NW FLOW
FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT BUT THIS WOULD LIKELY STILL NOT GENERATE VERY
MUCH PRECIP.

UPDATED EARLIER TO DROP WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE AND LOWERED WIND
SPEEDS. ALSO LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE N FOR THE EVE.

&&

.AVIATION...AT THE SLC TERMINAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
CIGS ABV 7000 FT THROUGH ABOUT 08-09Z WITH CIGS FALLING BELOW
6000 FT AFTER THAT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCASIONALLY CROSS THE
AIRFIELD BETWEEN ABOUT 08Z AND 14Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTHERLY BUT COULD
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHERLY AFTER ABOUT 11-12Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ006-010.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ007>009.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ517.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ021.

&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 230425
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
925 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COLD UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FRONTAL BAND CROSSED THE NRN CWA LATE AFTN THRU
EARLY EVE WITH PRECIP CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS JUST
BEFORE IT ENDED BUT NO ACCUMULATION OCCURRED ON VALLEY ROADS. THE
NRN MOUNTAINS AND MTN VALLEYS HAD A FAIRLY INTENSE PERIOD OF
HEAVY SNOW.

THE BAND IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL AND
SWRN UT AND THE FRONT HAS ALREADY REACHED MILFORD. PRECIP WITH IT
IS STILL LIKELY RAIN IN MOST VALLEYS THAT WILL BE SWITCHING TO
SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER TIME. PRECIP HAS BEEN FALLING AS SNOW
HOWEVER IN THE CASTLE COUNTRY VALLEYS NEAR PRICE SINCE MID AFTN
LIKELY DUE TO TRAPPED COLD AIR AND SOME ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN
OCCURRING ON ROADWAYS IN THAT AREA. THIS PRECIP SHOULD END ONCE
THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE
TRAPPED COLD AIRMASS NOT LONG FROM NOW. ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND
SRN UT THE THREAT OF ANY VALLEY TRAVEL IMPACTS REMAINS LOW AND NO
ADVISORIES PLANNED. THE BAND SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY SUNDAY.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TO IMPACT THE CWA CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL ID TO NERN NV AND IS SLIDING SEWD. THIS SHOULD SPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS BACK INTO NRN UT AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT CURRENT SCATTERED
COVERAGE TO EXPAND AS IT REACHES THE WASATCH FRONT AND CROSSES
OVER THE GSL. THIS SHOULD BE ALL SNOW AND COULD RESULT IN LOCAL
TRAVEL IMPACTS IN THE VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WHERE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR.

LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED BREAK IN THE PRECIP WILL OCCUR
TOMORROW AFTN ONCE THIS NEXT WAVE PASSES AS RIDGING IS A LITTLE
MORE AMPLIFIED BETWEEN IT AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE CURRENTLY
NEARING THE BRITCOL COAST. THIS WAVE SHOULD ALSO BRING MORE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NRN CWA BETWEEN ABOUT 06Z AND 18Z MON AND
WILL PROBABLY HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACT ON THE MON MORNING
COMMUTE.

CURRENT SUITE OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO
CHANGES PLANNED. DID CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY AS WINDS DIMINISHED
FAIRLY RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

PRECIP ENDS QUICKLY BY MON AFTN AS UPSTREAM RIDGING MOVES IN. THE
LATEST GFS IS A LITTLE WETTER AGAIN IN THE WARM ADVECTION NW FLOW
FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT BUT THIS WOULD LIKELY STILL NOT GENERATE VERY
MUCH PRECIP.

UPDATED EARLIER TO DROP WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE AND LOWERED WIND
SPEEDS. ALSO LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE N FOR THE EVE.

&&

.AVIATION...AT THE SLC TERMINAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
CIGS ABV 7000 FT THROUGH ABOUT 08-09Z WITH CIGS FALLING BELOW
6000 FT AFTER THAT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCASIONALLY CROSS THE
AIRFIELD BETWEEN ABOUT 08Z AND 14Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTHERLY BUT COULD
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHERLY AFTER ABOUT 11-12Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ006-010.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ007>009.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ517.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ021.

&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 230425
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
925 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COLD UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FRONTAL BAND CROSSED THE NRN CWA LATE AFTN THRU
EARLY EVE WITH PRECIP CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS JUST
BEFORE IT ENDED BUT NO ACCUMULATION OCCURRED ON VALLEY ROADS. THE
NRN MOUNTAINS AND MTN VALLEYS HAD A FAIRLY INTENSE PERIOD OF
HEAVY SNOW.

THE BAND IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL AND
SWRN UT AND THE FRONT HAS ALREADY REACHED MILFORD. PRECIP WITH IT
IS STILL LIKELY RAIN IN MOST VALLEYS THAT WILL BE SWITCHING TO
SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER TIME. PRECIP HAS BEEN FALLING AS SNOW
HOWEVER IN THE CASTLE COUNTRY VALLEYS NEAR PRICE SINCE MID AFTN
LIKELY DUE TO TRAPPED COLD AIR AND SOME ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN
OCCURRING ON ROADWAYS IN THAT AREA. THIS PRECIP SHOULD END ONCE
THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE
TRAPPED COLD AIRMASS NOT LONG FROM NOW. ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND
SRN UT THE THREAT OF ANY VALLEY TRAVEL IMPACTS REMAINS LOW AND NO
ADVISORIES PLANNED. THE BAND SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY SUNDAY.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TO IMPACT THE CWA CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL ID TO NERN NV AND IS SLIDING SEWD. THIS SHOULD SPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS BACK INTO NRN UT AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT CURRENT SCATTERED
COVERAGE TO EXPAND AS IT REACHES THE WASATCH FRONT AND CROSSES
OVER THE GSL. THIS SHOULD BE ALL SNOW AND COULD RESULT IN LOCAL
TRAVEL IMPACTS IN THE VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WHERE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR.

LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED BREAK IN THE PRECIP WILL OCCUR
TOMORROW AFTN ONCE THIS NEXT WAVE PASSES AS RIDGING IS A LITTLE
MORE AMPLIFIED BETWEEN IT AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE CURRENTLY
NEARING THE BRITCOL COAST. THIS WAVE SHOULD ALSO BRING MORE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NRN CWA BETWEEN ABOUT 06Z AND 18Z MON AND
WILL PROBABLY HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACT ON THE MON MORNING
COMMUTE.

CURRENT SUITE OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO
CHANGES PLANNED. DID CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY AS WINDS DIMINISHED
FAIRLY RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

PRECIP ENDS QUICKLY BY MON AFTN AS UPSTREAM RIDGING MOVES IN. THE
LATEST GFS IS A LITTLE WETTER AGAIN IN THE WARM ADVECTION NW FLOW
FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT BUT THIS WOULD LIKELY STILL NOT GENERATE VERY
MUCH PRECIP.

UPDATED EARLIER TO DROP WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE AND LOWERED WIND
SPEEDS. ALSO LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE N FOR THE EVE.

&&

.AVIATION...AT THE SLC TERMINAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
CIGS ABV 7000 FT THROUGH ABOUT 08-09Z WITH CIGS FALLING BELOW
6000 FT AFTER THAT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCASIONALLY CROSS THE
AIRFIELD BETWEEN ABOUT 08Z AND 14Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTHERLY BUT COULD
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHERLY AFTER ABOUT 11-12Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ006-010.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ007>009.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ517.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ021.

&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 222311
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
411 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD AND ENERGETIC STORM SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THIS EVENING...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FOR MIDWEEK.



&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)...A MOIST AND ENERGETIC STORM
SYSTEM HAS ENTERED UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR SALT LAKE CITY AS
OF 23Z. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LOCALLY INTENSE UNDER THE COLD
FRONTAL BAND...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH GOOD INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVEL COLD POOL AND STRONG JET BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. SNOW
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING VALLEY SNOW BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. MODEL
FORECAST TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR A TRUE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND TO FORM OVERNIGHT...BUT ENHANCED SHOWERS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GREAT SALT LAKE ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

AFTER LINGERING SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING WITH THE
INITIAL WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
IN THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD INITIATE SOME MORE SNOW SHOWERS...AND WHILE THIS WAVE IS A
FAIR AMOUNT WEAKER THAN THE INITIAL SYSTEM TONIGHT...SNOW MAY
STICK MORE EFFICIENTLY WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE.

AFTER THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...A MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH COULD ALLOW SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN UTAH. THIS INCREASED FLOW AND CLOUD COVER COULD ALSO HELP
KEEP THE NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM DEVELOPING TOO STRONG OF
AN INVERSION...SO HAVE KEPT A WARMING TREND IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS MOISTURE SLOWLY PUSHES OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST
BEGINS TO PUSH INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY)...DEVELOPING RIDGE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER A DRYING NORTHERLY
FLOW. NO BIG CHANGE IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE ON THE WARM SIDE IF
EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER REMAINS IN PLACE AND ANY INVERSIONS SET UP IN
THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
THROUGH FRIDAY.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE BREAKS UNDERNEATH THE
WEST COAST RIDGE FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING STILL IFFY. A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE WILL FALL BETWEEN THIS FIRST WEAK TROUGH AND A STRONGER
SYSTEM EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN
THE THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND BULK OF THE MOISTURE
ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION...AT THE SLC TERMINAL...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BOUNCE
BETWEEN MVFR AND LOW-END VFR IN THE NEAR TERM...THOUGH VISIBILITIES
MAY BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE IN HEAVIER RAIN. THE TRANSITION
TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z...WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT IT WILL OCCUR LATER THAN EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ006-010.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ007>009.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ005.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ517.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ021.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHOENING
LONG TERM...YOUNG
AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 222311
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
411 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD AND ENERGETIC STORM SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THIS EVENING...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FOR MIDWEEK.



&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)...A MOIST AND ENERGETIC STORM
SYSTEM HAS ENTERED UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR SALT LAKE CITY AS
OF 23Z. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LOCALLY INTENSE UNDER THE COLD
FRONTAL BAND...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH GOOD INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVEL COLD POOL AND STRONG JET BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. SNOW
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING VALLEY SNOW BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. MODEL
FORECAST TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR A TRUE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND TO FORM OVERNIGHT...BUT ENHANCED SHOWERS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GREAT SALT LAKE ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

AFTER LINGERING SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING WITH THE
INITIAL WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
IN THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD INITIATE SOME MORE SNOW SHOWERS...AND WHILE THIS WAVE IS A
FAIR AMOUNT WEAKER THAN THE INITIAL SYSTEM TONIGHT...SNOW MAY
STICK MORE EFFICIENTLY WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE.

AFTER THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...A MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH COULD ALLOW SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN UTAH. THIS INCREASED FLOW AND CLOUD COVER COULD ALSO HELP
KEEP THE NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM DEVELOPING TOO STRONG OF
AN INVERSION...SO HAVE KEPT A WARMING TREND IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS MOISTURE SLOWLY PUSHES OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST
BEGINS TO PUSH INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY)...DEVELOPING RIDGE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER A DRYING NORTHERLY
FLOW. NO BIG CHANGE IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE ON THE WARM SIDE IF
EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER REMAINS IN PLACE AND ANY INVERSIONS SET UP IN
THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
THROUGH FRIDAY.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE BREAKS UNDERNEATH THE
WEST COAST RIDGE FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING STILL IFFY. A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE WILL FALL BETWEEN THIS FIRST WEAK TROUGH AND A STRONGER
SYSTEM EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN
THE THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND BULK OF THE MOISTURE
ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION...AT THE SLC TERMINAL...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BOUNCE
BETWEEN MVFR AND LOW-END VFR IN THE NEAR TERM...THOUGH VISIBILITIES
MAY BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE IN HEAVIER RAIN. THE TRANSITION
TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z...WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT IT WILL OCCUR LATER THAN EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ006-010.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ007>009.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ005.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ517.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ021.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHOENING
LONG TERM...YOUNG
AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 222311
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
411 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD AND ENERGETIC STORM SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THIS EVENING...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FOR MIDWEEK.



&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)...A MOIST AND ENERGETIC STORM
SYSTEM HAS ENTERED UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR SALT LAKE CITY AS
OF 23Z. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LOCALLY INTENSE UNDER THE COLD
FRONTAL BAND...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH GOOD INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVEL COLD POOL AND STRONG JET BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. SNOW
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING VALLEY SNOW BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. MODEL
FORECAST TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR A TRUE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND TO FORM OVERNIGHT...BUT ENHANCED SHOWERS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GREAT SALT LAKE ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

AFTER LINGERING SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING WITH THE
INITIAL WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
IN THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD INITIATE SOME MORE SNOW SHOWERS...AND WHILE THIS WAVE IS A
FAIR AMOUNT WEAKER THAN THE INITIAL SYSTEM TONIGHT...SNOW MAY
STICK MORE EFFICIENTLY WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE.

AFTER THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...A MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH COULD ALLOW SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN UTAH. THIS INCREASED FLOW AND CLOUD COVER COULD ALSO HELP
KEEP THE NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM DEVELOPING TOO STRONG OF
AN INVERSION...SO HAVE KEPT A WARMING TREND IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS MOISTURE SLOWLY PUSHES OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST
BEGINS TO PUSH INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY)...DEVELOPING RIDGE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER A DRYING NORTHERLY
FLOW. NO BIG CHANGE IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE ON THE WARM SIDE IF
EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER REMAINS IN PLACE AND ANY INVERSIONS SET UP IN
THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
THROUGH FRIDAY.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE BREAKS UNDERNEATH THE
WEST COAST RIDGE FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING STILL IFFY. A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE WILL FALL BETWEEN THIS FIRST WEAK TROUGH AND A STRONGER
SYSTEM EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN
THE THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND BULK OF THE MOISTURE
ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION...AT THE SLC TERMINAL...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BOUNCE
BETWEEN MVFR AND LOW-END VFR IN THE NEAR TERM...THOUGH VISIBILITIES
MAY BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE IN HEAVIER RAIN. THE TRANSITION
TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z...WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT IT WILL OCCUR LATER THAN EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ006-010.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ007>009.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ005.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ517.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ021.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHOENING
LONG TERM...YOUNG
AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 222311
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
411 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD AND ENERGETIC STORM SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THIS EVENING...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FOR MIDWEEK.



&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)...A MOIST AND ENERGETIC STORM
SYSTEM HAS ENTERED UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR SALT LAKE CITY AS
OF 23Z. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LOCALLY INTENSE UNDER THE COLD
FRONTAL BAND...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH GOOD INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVEL COLD POOL AND STRONG JET BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. SNOW
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING VALLEY SNOW BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. MODEL
FORECAST TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR A TRUE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND TO FORM OVERNIGHT...BUT ENHANCED SHOWERS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GREAT SALT LAKE ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

AFTER LINGERING SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING WITH THE
INITIAL WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
IN THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD INITIATE SOME MORE SNOW SHOWERS...AND WHILE THIS WAVE IS A
FAIR AMOUNT WEAKER THAN THE INITIAL SYSTEM TONIGHT...SNOW MAY
STICK MORE EFFICIENTLY WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE.

AFTER THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...A MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH COULD ALLOW SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN UTAH. THIS INCREASED FLOW AND CLOUD COVER COULD ALSO HELP
KEEP THE NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM DEVELOPING TOO STRONG OF
AN INVERSION...SO HAVE KEPT A WARMING TREND IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS MOISTURE SLOWLY PUSHES OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST
BEGINS TO PUSH INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY)...DEVELOPING RIDGE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER A DRYING NORTHERLY
FLOW. NO BIG CHANGE IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE ON THE WARM SIDE IF
EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER REMAINS IN PLACE AND ANY INVERSIONS SET UP IN
THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
THROUGH FRIDAY.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE BREAKS UNDERNEATH THE
WEST COAST RIDGE FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING STILL IFFY. A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE WILL FALL BETWEEN THIS FIRST WEAK TROUGH AND A STRONGER
SYSTEM EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN
THE THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND BULK OF THE MOISTURE
ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION...AT THE SLC TERMINAL...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BOUNCE
BETWEEN MVFR AND LOW-END VFR IN THE NEAR TERM...THOUGH VISIBILITIES
MAY BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE IN HEAVIER RAIN. THE TRANSITION
TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z...WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT IT WILL OCCUR LATER THAN EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ006-010.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ007>009.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ005.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ517.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ021.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHOENING
LONG TERM...YOUNG
AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 221729
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1029 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD AND ENERGETIC STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH UTAH BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS STORM WILL IMPACT MAINLY NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TRAILING WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS UTAH MONDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A MOIST STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HAS
ALREADY BEGUN TO IMPACT UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS
MORNING...WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALSO
BEGUN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS STORM...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO GET
STRONGER AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER THE AREA.

THIS PRECIP AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH IS JUST THE BEGINNING OF
WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN ENERGETIC STORM CYCLE FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH ONLY FAR SOUTHERN UTAH LIKELY TO STAY DRY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING FAIRLY QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY
UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTIVE BANDS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS TO BE
QUITE GOOD FOR PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIP
LOOKS TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT ONE LAST WAVE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE
NORTH...WITH A 150 KNOT JET DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

ALL OF THE ONGOING HEADLINES LOOK TO BE ON TRACK. THE ONLY
POTENTIAL CHANGE AT THE MOMENT IS CONSIDERING ADDITIONAL WIND OR
SNOW ADVISORIES FOR THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN UTAH...BUT DURATION OF
WINDS AND SNOW AMOUNTS CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE LACKING. UPDATED THE
FORECAST EARLIER THIS MORNING TO ADD A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE SPC
CALIBRATED THUNDERSTORM PRODUCT PUTS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OVER THE
WASATCH FRONT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ALSO LOWERED SNOW
LEVELS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND TWEAKED THE TEMPERATURE CURVE TO
SHOW THE COLD FRONTAL PROGRESSION MORE CLEARLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AT
THE SLC TERMINAL WITH CIGS AT OR BELOW 6000 FT AGL.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE
DURING THE DAY IN RAIN. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z BUT
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THIS WILL OCCUR LATER THAN EXPECTED.
THE TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ006-010.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ007>009.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
     UTZ005.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MST
     SUNDAY FOR UTZ517.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ021.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 221729
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1029 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD AND ENERGETIC STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH UTAH BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS STORM WILL IMPACT MAINLY NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TRAILING WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS UTAH MONDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A MOIST STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HAS
ALREADY BEGUN TO IMPACT UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS
MORNING...WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALSO
BEGUN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS STORM...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO GET
STRONGER AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER THE AREA.

THIS PRECIP AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH IS JUST THE BEGINNING OF
WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN ENERGETIC STORM CYCLE FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH ONLY FAR SOUTHERN UTAH LIKELY TO STAY DRY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING FAIRLY QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY
UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTIVE BANDS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS TO BE
QUITE GOOD FOR PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIP
LOOKS TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT ONE LAST WAVE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE
NORTH...WITH A 150 KNOT JET DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

ALL OF THE ONGOING HEADLINES LOOK TO BE ON TRACK. THE ONLY
POTENTIAL CHANGE AT THE MOMENT IS CONSIDERING ADDITIONAL WIND OR
SNOW ADVISORIES FOR THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN UTAH...BUT DURATION OF
WINDS AND SNOW AMOUNTS CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE LACKING. UPDATED THE
FORECAST EARLIER THIS MORNING TO ADD A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE SPC
CALIBRATED THUNDERSTORM PRODUCT PUTS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OVER THE
WASATCH FRONT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ALSO LOWERED SNOW
LEVELS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND TWEAKED THE TEMPERATURE CURVE TO
SHOW THE COLD FRONTAL PROGRESSION MORE CLEARLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AT
THE SLC TERMINAL WITH CIGS AT OR BELOW 6000 FT AGL.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE
DURING THE DAY IN RAIN. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z BUT
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THIS WILL OCCUR LATER THAN EXPECTED.
THE TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ006-010.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ007>009.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
     UTZ005.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MST
     SUNDAY FOR UTZ517.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ021.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 221214
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
514 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD AND ENERGETIC STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH UTAH BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS STORM WILL IMPACT MAINLY NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TRAILING WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS UTAH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z WEDNESDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITH THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL REACH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE DRIVEN BY
THE 160+ KT JET WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
GREAT BASIN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL USHER IN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

STRONG AND INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING
LIGHT PRECIP TO FAR NORTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING. SNOW-LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THIS MORNING AS NEAR 700MB TEMPS HOVER JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. HIGHER VALLEY LOCATIONS HAVE
BEEN MIXING OUT OVERNIGHT...SO WILL KEEP THE PRECIP TYPE
PREDOMINATELY AS RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE 06Z NAM/GFS HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF COLDER MID-LEVEL AIR
MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BEGINNING LATE
THIS MORNING. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE TO CREATE A DEEPER LAYER
OF INSTABILITY AND STRONGER LIFT HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER DUE TO THE MORE INTENSE
PRECIP...THOUGH THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL LIKELY STAY IN RAIN THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO NORTHWEST UTAH BY AROUND MID-
AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENIC FORCING IDENTIFIED BY THE
GUIDANCE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST UTAH COULD SIGNAL A
BRIEF PERIOD OF CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM PLACES
THIS THREAT CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WASATCH FRONT...WHILE
THE GFS SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WASATCH
FRONT. IN EITHER CASE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION...DRIVING SNOW-LEVELS MUCH LOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL EXIST DUE TO THE
COLD TEMPS AND STRONG DYNAMIC/THERMALLY DRIVEN LIFT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.

DUE TO THE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT AND THE STRONG
NEAR 700MB SUPPORTING NORTHWEST WINDS...HAVE ADDED A WIND ADVISORY
TO THE GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS IN NORTHWEST UTAH FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A BRIEF LULL IN SNOW
EXTENDING INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. A SECOND TRAILING SHORTWAVE
WILL RE-ENERGIZE SNOW IN THE COLD/MOIST AND STILL UNSTABLE AIR
MASS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES
WILL ALSO BE IN PLAY...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW
AGAIN IN THE WASATCH RANGE AND THE ADJACENT WINDWARD VALLEYS. CAN
NOT RULE OUT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DOWNWIND OF THE GSL...AND POSSIBLY
UTAH LAKE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY WILL EVENTUALLY PRODUCE A STABLE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST STARTING MONDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL BE
THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)...BOTH THE EC AND GFS SHOW
SOME WEAK WARM 700MB ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS
BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY SO HAVE KEPT THE MINIMAL POPS. AFTER
THAT THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MORE SO BY
THE EC THAN THE GFS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGING DUE TO SOME
AREAS POSSIBLY UNDER A SNOW COVER WELL INTO THE WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH
50 AT SLC BY WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS ABOUT THE MEAN OF THE VARIOUS
MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS TEMP COULD BE ON THE WARM SIDE IF EXTENSIVE
SNOW COVER REMAINS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCH
UPWARDS AS THE H7 TEMPS CLIMB A COUPLE MORE DEGREES CELSIUS THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE EC APPEARS TO BE TOO STRONG ON THIS WARMING SO KEPT
CLOSER TO THE GFS.

BY LATE FRIDAY THE EC INDICATES A WEAK SHORTWAVE BREAKING UNDERNEATH
THE WEST COAST RIDGE AHEAD OF WHEN THE GFS BREAKS A SHORT WAVE
THROUGH. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION AND THEREFORE
HOLD OFF ON ANY CHANCES OF PRECIP UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE GFS
BRINGS A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. DUE TO THE BROAD
WEAKNESS OF THIS TROUGH...HAVE UNDERCUT CLIMO POPS FOR THIS TIME
FRAME BUT STILL LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE IN MOST MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE RATHER MILD DURING THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 23 AND 24Z.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 7K FT AGL UNTIL THE WIND
SHIFT/COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF CIGS
BELOW 7KT AFTER ABOUT 22Z. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT VLIFR
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR BETWEEN 01 AND 03Z IN SNOW AND LOW CIGS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ006-010.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ007>009.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
     UTZ005.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MST
     SUNDAY FOR UTZ517.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM MST
     SUNDAY FOR WYZ021.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 221214
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
514 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD AND ENERGETIC STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH UTAH BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS STORM WILL IMPACT MAINLY NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TRAILING WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS UTAH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z WEDNESDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITH THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL REACH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE DRIVEN BY
THE 160+ KT JET WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
GREAT BASIN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL USHER IN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

STRONG AND INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING
LIGHT PRECIP TO FAR NORTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING. SNOW-LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THIS MORNING AS NEAR 700MB TEMPS HOVER JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. HIGHER VALLEY LOCATIONS HAVE
BEEN MIXING OUT OVERNIGHT...SO WILL KEEP THE PRECIP TYPE
PREDOMINATELY AS RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE 06Z NAM/GFS HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF COLDER MID-LEVEL AIR
MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BEGINNING LATE
THIS MORNING. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE TO CREATE A DEEPER LAYER
OF INSTABILITY AND STRONGER LIFT HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER DUE TO THE MORE INTENSE
PRECIP...THOUGH THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL LIKELY STAY IN RAIN THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO NORTHWEST UTAH BY AROUND MID-
AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENIC FORCING IDENTIFIED BY THE
GUIDANCE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST UTAH COULD SIGNAL A
BRIEF PERIOD OF CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM PLACES
THIS THREAT CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WASATCH FRONT...WHILE
THE GFS SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WASATCH
FRONT. IN EITHER CASE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION...DRIVING SNOW-LEVELS MUCH LOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL EXIST DUE TO THE
COLD TEMPS AND STRONG DYNAMIC/THERMALLY DRIVEN LIFT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.

DUE TO THE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT AND THE STRONG
NEAR 700MB SUPPORTING NORTHWEST WINDS...HAVE ADDED A WIND ADVISORY
TO THE GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS IN NORTHWEST UTAH FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A BRIEF LULL IN SNOW
EXTENDING INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. A SECOND TRAILING SHORTWAVE
WILL RE-ENERGIZE SNOW IN THE COLD/MOIST AND STILL UNSTABLE AIR
MASS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES
WILL ALSO BE IN PLAY...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW
AGAIN IN THE WASATCH RANGE AND THE ADJACENT WINDWARD VALLEYS. CAN
NOT RULE OUT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DOWNWIND OF THE GSL...AND POSSIBLY
UTAH LAKE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY WILL EVENTUALLY PRODUCE A STABLE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST STARTING MONDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL BE
THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)...BOTH THE EC AND GFS SHOW
SOME WEAK WARM 700MB ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS
BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY SO HAVE KEPT THE MINIMAL POPS. AFTER
THAT THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MORE SO BY
THE EC THAN THE GFS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGING DUE TO SOME
AREAS POSSIBLY UNDER A SNOW COVER WELL INTO THE WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH
50 AT SLC BY WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS ABOUT THE MEAN OF THE VARIOUS
MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS TEMP COULD BE ON THE WARM SIDE IF EXTENSIVE
SNOW COVER REMAINS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCH
UPWARDS AS THE H7 TEMPS CLIMB A COUPLE MORE DEGREES CELSIUS THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE EC APPEARS TO BE TOO STRONG ON THIS WARMING SO KEPT
CLOSER TO THE GFS.

BY LATE FRIDAY THE EC INDICATES A WEAK SHORTWAVE BREAKING UNDERNEATH
THE WEST COAST RIDGE AHEAD OF WHEN THE GFS BREAKS A SHORT WAVE
THROUGH. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION AND THEREFORE
HOLD OFF ON ANY CHANCES OF PRECIP UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE GFS
BRINGS A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. DUE TO THE BROAD
WEAKNESS OF THIS TROUGH...HAVE UNDERCUT CLIMO POPS FOR THIS TIME
FRAME BUT STILL LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE IN MOST MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE RATHER MILD DURING THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 23 AND 24Z.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 7K FT AGL UNTIL THE WIND
SHIFT/COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF CIGS
BELOW 7KT AFTER ABOUT 22Z. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT VLIFR
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR BETWEEN 01 AND 03Z IN SNOW AND LOW CIGS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ006-010.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ007>009.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
     UTZ005.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MST
     SUNDAY FOR UTZ517.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM MST
     SUNDAY FOR WYZ021.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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