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000
FXUS65 KSLC 181105
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
505 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT BASIN TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT THEN FORM A CLOSED LOW OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS UTAH TODAY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND REMAIN INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z SUN)...UT IS UNDER A S TO SWLY FLOW THIS
MORNING WITH A HIGH CENTERED JUST TO OUR EAST OVER WRN CO AND AN
ELONGATED TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
TODAY BUT NOT INCREASE ALL THAT MUCH AS THE UPPER TROF STARTS TO
SPLIT. THE TROF SPLITS COMPLETELY TONIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SLIDING PAST TO OUR NORTH AND THE SRN BRANCH FORMING A CLOSED LOW
OFF THE SRN CA COAST.

MOISTURE DOES SPREAD NORTH TODAY IN THE S-SWLY FLOW BUT LIFT IS
WEAK ACROSS THE SOUTH AND ANY PRECIP THERE WILL BE SPOTTY FROM
CONVECTION DRIVEN PRETTY MUCH SOLELY BY DAYTIME HEATING. DYNAMICS
ARE A BIT BETTER ACROSS THE NWRN CWA AND CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME
SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD. THE THREAT OF STRONG CONVECTION APPEARS
LOW AS THE BEST SUPPORT DOES NOT REACH NWRN UT UNTIL TONIGHT PAST
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.

STILL EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE NRN CWA OVERNIGHT
LINGERING INTO FRI MORNING AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH TONIGHT AND
EAST FRI. THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL HEAVY RAIN AS
THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME FAIRLY MOIST AND THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE
EFFICIENT.

DRYING SPREADS FROM THE NW ACROSS THE CWA FRI AFTN AS THE NRN
BRANCH TROF DEPARTS AND THE CLOSED LOW CONSOLIDATES OFF TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO START LIFTING NEWD ON SAT AND
WILL TAP THE MOISTURE IN PLACE TO OUR SOUTH ONCE AGAIN WITH PRECIP
SPREADING BACK INTO SWRN UT SAT AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SUNDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN
PHASE REGARDING THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED LOW THAT
WILL SETTLE INTO SOCAL EARLY WEEKEND. MINIMAL MOVEMENT OF THIS
WILL ALLOW A STOUT SUBTROP MOISTURE TAP FROM THE SOUTHEAST
BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY BEFORE AN UPSTREAM LONG WAVE TROUGH KICKS
THE LOW NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SHOULD SEE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS PEAKING SUNDAY BEFORE
TRACK OF LOW ALLOWS A NET DRYING TREND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THEREAFTER THROUGH MIDWEEK ADVERTISING A
NET WARMING/DRYING TREND. THIS AS MID LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFICATION
OCCURS IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
THE PACIFIC COAST.

CONFIDENCE IN DETAIL REGARDING THE EVOLUTION AND SIGNIFICANT OF THIS
LONG WAVE WANES RAPIDLY LATER NEXT WEEK. IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS DO TRANSITION THIS EAST AND OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN IN SOME MANNER FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ONLY TRENDED POPS TO
CLIMO FOR THURSDAY AS TIMING/DETAIL VARY IN GUIDANCE...BUT COULD
VERY WELL BE ADDRESSING A FALL-LIKE STORM COME DAY 7.


&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MODERATELY GUSTY THIS MORNING AT THE KSLC TERMINAL AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWESTERN UTAH. THIS
GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH HIGH TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN FORECAST TO BE VERY WARM...A 60 PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS FOR A
SWITCH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 21-23Z. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST TODAY BUT AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO THE AREA AFTER 02/03Z TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IN
ADVANCE OF THIS HAS ALLOWED MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AND
THE COMBINATION OF THAT MOISTURE AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL YIELD SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
DISTRICT FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW
WILL SPLIT AND STALL OVER SOCAL FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY ALLOWING SOME
DRYING TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DISTRICT INCREASING WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR ANOTHER 24
HOUR PERIOD BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING A NET WARMING/DRYING TREND THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 181105
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
505 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT BASIN TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT THEN FORM A CLOSED LOW OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS UTAH TODAY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND REMAIN INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z SUN)...UT IS UNDER A S TO SWLY FLOW THIS
MORNING WITH A HIGH CENTERED JUST TO OUR EAST OVER WRN CO AND AN
ELONGATED TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
TODAY BUT NOT INCREASE ALL THAT MUCH AS THE UPPER TROF STARTS TO
SPLIT. THE TROF SPLITS COMPLETELY TONIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SLIDING PAST TO OUR NORTH AND THE SRN BRANCH FORMING A CLOSED LOW
OFF THE SRN CA COAST.

MOISTURE DOES SPREAD NORTH TODAY IN THE S-SWLY FLOW BUT LIFT IS
WEAK ACROSS THE SOUTH AND ANY PRECIP THERE WILL BE SPOTTY FROM
CONVECTION DRIVEN PRETTY MUCH SOLELY BY DAYTIME HEATING. DYNAMICS
ARE A BIT BETTER ACROSS THE NWRN CWA AND CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME
SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD. THE THREAT OF STRONG CONVECTION APPEARS
LOW AS THE BEST SUPPORT DOES NOT REACH NWRN UT UNTIL TONIGHT PAST
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.

STILL EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE NRN CWA OVERNIGHT
LINGERING INTO FRI MORNING AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH TONIGHT AND
EAST FRI. THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL HEAVY RAIN AS
THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME FAIRLY MOIST AND THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE
EFFICIENT.

DRYING SPREADS FROM THE NW ACROSS THE CWA FRI AFTN AS THE NRN
BRANCH TROF DEPARTS AND THE CLOSED LOW CONSOLIDATES OFF TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO START LIFTING NEWD ON SAT AND
WILL TAP THE MOISTURE IN PLACE TO OUR SOUTH ONCE AGAIN WITH PRECIP
SPREADING BACK INTO SWRN UT SAT AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SUNDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN
PHASE REGARDING THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED LOW THAT
WILL SETTLE INTO SOCAL EARLY WEEKEND. MINIMAL MOVEMENT OF THIS
WILL ALLOW A STOUT SUBTROP MOISTURE TAP FROM THE SOUTHEAST
BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY BEFORE AN UPSTREAM LONG WAVE TROUGH KICKS
THE LOW NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SHOULD SEE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS PEAKING SUNDAY BEFORE
TRACK OF LOW ALLOWS A NET DRYING TREND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THEREAFTER THROUGH MIDWEEK ADVERTISING A
NET WARMING/DRYING TREND. THIS AS MID LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFICATION
OCCURS IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
THE PACIFIC COAST.

CONFIDENCE IN DETAIL REGARDING THE EVOLUTION AND SIGNIFICANT OF THIS
LONG WAVE WANES RAPIDLY LATER NEXT WEEK. IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS DO TRANSITION THIS EAST AND OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN IN SOME MANNER FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ONLY TRENDED POPS TO
CLIMO FOR THURSDAY AS TIMING/DETAIL VARY IN GUIDANCE...BUT COULD
VERY WELL BE ADDRESSING A FALL-LIKE STORM COME DAY 7.


&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MODERATELY GUSTY THIS MORNING AT THE KSLC TERMINAL AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWESTERN UTAH. THIS
GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH HIGH TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN FORECAST TO BE VERY WARM...A 60 PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS FOR A
SWITCH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 21-23Z. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST TODAY BUT AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO THE AREA AFTER 02/03Z TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IN
ADVANCE OF THIS HAS ALLOWED MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AND
THE COMBINATION OF THAT MOISTURE AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL YIELD SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
DISTRICT FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW
WILL SPLIT AND STALL OVER SOCAL FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY ALLOWING SOME
DRYING TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DISTRICT INCREASING WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR ANOTHER 24
HOUR PERIOD BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING A NET WARMING/DRYING TREND THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 180349
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
949 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER UTAH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
STATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A PACIFIC TROUGH
WHICH WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RIDGE AXIS THAT WAS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. A WARM AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE TODAY AND THE SALT LAKE AIRPORT AS WELL AS A
COUPLE OTHER SITES SAW RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT. MOISTURE
TO THE TUNE OF 0.8-1.1 INCHES OF PWAT MANAGED TO SPREAD INTO FAR
SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY WHICH LED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THERE...OTHERWISE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WAS ISOLATED AND LIMITED
MAINLY TO THE HIGH TERRAIN. BESIDES THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST
NEVADA THREATENING TO MOVE INTO UTAH OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
REDUCED TO VERY ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.

REGARDING THE SHOWERS OVER NEVADA...THEY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO IDAHO...SO EXPECT THEM TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME CROSSING FAR NORTHWEST UTAH.
THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A LARGER PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH WILL IMPACT THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN TOMORROW. THE TROUGH ITSELF WILL SPLIT...BUT THE
NORTHERN BRANCH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHALLOW COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS
DRIES BEHIND THE STORM.

THE SPLITTING STORM SYSTEM WILL LEAVE A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOCAL
COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INLAND FOR THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING AND INCREASING TREND FOR SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN.

UPDATED FORECAST MAINLY TO REDUCE POP/SKY FOR SOME AREAS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AT THE KSLC TERMINAL. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...INCREASING IN SPEED AFTER 1200 UTC.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 180349
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
949 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER UTAH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
STATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A PACIFIC TROUGH
WHICH WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RIDGE AXIS THAT WAS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. A WARM AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE TODAY AND THE SALT LAKE AIRPORT AS WELL AS A
COUPLE OTHER SITES SAW RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT. MOISTURE
TO THE TUNE OF 0.8-1.1 INCHES OF PWAT MANAGED TO SPREAD INTO FAR
SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY WHICH LED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THERE...OTHERWISE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WAS ISOLATED AND LIMITED
MAINLY TO THE HIGH TERRAIN. BESIDES THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST
NEVADA THREATENING TO MOVE INTO UTAH OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
REDUCED TO VERY ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.

REGARDING THE SHOWERS OVER NEVADA...THEY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO IDAHO...SO EXPECT THEM TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME CROSSING FAR NORTHWEST UTAH.
THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A LARGER PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH WILL IMPACT THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN TOMORROW. THE TROUGH ITSELF WILL SPLIT...BUT THE
NORTHERN BRANCH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHALLOW COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS
DRIES BEHIND THE STORM.

THE SPLITTING STORM SYSTEM WILL LEAVE A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOCAL
COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INLAND FOR THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING AND INCREASING TREND FOR SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN.

UPDATED FORECAST MAINLY TO REDUCE POP/SKY FOR SOME AREAS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AT THE KSLC TERMINAL. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...INCREASING IN SPEED AFTER 1200 UTC.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 172236
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
436 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER UTAH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
STATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A PACIFIC TROUGH
WHICH WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK.



&&

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...HELPING TO PRODUCE VERY WARM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. FOR
EXAMPLE...THE SALT LAKE CITY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS HIT 94
DEGREES AS OF 22Z...BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 93 SET IN
1937. ENOUGH MOISTURE HAS REMAINED UNDER THIS RIDGE TO FUEL
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...PRIMARILY INITIATING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AS EXPECTED...ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ALONG THE
UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER...WHERE STRONGER STORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
DEVELOP ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
ARIZONA. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE
POTENTIALLY DISSIPATING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MOISTURE IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO MUCH OF THE
STATE OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO FUEL INCREASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH...WHERE A PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE GOOD
FORCING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
POTENTIALLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR FORECAST TO
REACH 30-40 KNOTS OVER NORTHWEST UTAH BY 00Z FRIDAY. THAT
SAID...WAS UNABLE TO RAISE POPS MUCH MORE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS RECENT GFS AND ECMWF RUNS HAVE PRODUCED
LESS QPF AND A SOMEWHAT LESS ORGANIZED BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA.

SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING DECREASES CONSIDERABLY
THROUGH THE DAY...AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH CUTS OFF
AND MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA...AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH SLIDES OFF
INTO THE DAKOTAS. INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THAT NORTHERN
BRANCH SHOULD HELP DRY OUT THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO DROP FROM ONE
INCH TO HALF AN INCH IN A LITTLE MORE THAN 24 HOURS.

HOWEVER...THIS DRYING WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED. MOST OF THE CWA
WILL SEE A SUNNY DAY ON SATURDAY...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL PUSH MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING. THAT LOW IS THEN
PROGGED TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...DIRECTLY THROUGH UTAH...SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME...AS CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING MORE AND MORE FAVORABLE FOR
RAIN ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA. BEYOND MONDAY...THE LOW EXITS
THE AREA...AND A RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE REGION. WITH DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT IN THIS SOLUTION...HAVE INCLUDED THIS DRYING AND WARMING
TREND IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AT THE KSLC TERMINAL. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 0200 UTC AND 0400 UTC. SOUTH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 1200 UTC.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE HAS SURGED INTO SOUTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON
TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. THIS MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
...INTERACTING WITH AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH TO ENHANCE THE
LIKELIHOOD AND COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. SATURDAY
USHERS IN A BRIEF DRYING TREND QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH WILL INCREASE WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL AGAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
FIRE WEATHER...VERZELLA
AVIATION...GRAHAM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 172236
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
436 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER UTAH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
STATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A PACIFIC TROUGH
WHICH WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK.



&&

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...HELPING TO PRODUCE VERY WARM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. FOR
EXAMPLE...THE SALT LAKE CITY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS HIT 94
DEGREES AS OF 22Z...BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 93 SET IN
1937. ENOUGH MOISTURE HAS REMAINED UNDER THIS RIDGE TO FUEL
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...PRIMARILY INITIATING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AS EXPECTED...ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ALONG THE
UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER...WHERE STRONGER STORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
DEVELOP ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
ARIZONA. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE
POTENTIALLY DISSIPATING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MOISTURE IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO MUCH OF THE
STATE OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO FUEL INCREASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH...WHERE A PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE GOOD
FORCING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
POTENTIALLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR FORECAST TO
REACH 30-40 KNOTS OVER NORTHWEST UTAH BY 00Z FRIDAY. THAT
SAID...WAS UNABLE TO RAISE POPS MUCH MORE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS RECENT GFS AND ECMWF RUNS HAVE PRODUCED
LESS QPF AND A SOMEWHAT LESS ORGANIZED BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA.

SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING DECREASES CONSIDERABLY
THROUGH THE DAY...AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH CUTS OFF
AND MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA...AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH SLIDES OFF
INTO THE DAKOTAS. INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THAT NORTHERN
BRANCH SHOULD HELP DRY OUT THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO DROP FROM ONE
INCH TO HALF AN INCH IN A LITTLE MORE THAN 24 HOURS.

HOWEVER...THIS DRYING WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED. MOST OF THE CWA
WILL SEE A SUNNY DAY ON SATURDAY...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL PUSH MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING. THAT LOW IS THEN
PROGGED TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...DIRECTLY THROUGH UTAH...SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME...AS CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING MORE AND MORE FAVORABLE FOR
RAIN ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA. BEYOND MONDAY...THE LOW EXITS
THE AREA...AND A RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE REGION. WITH DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT IN THIS SOLUTION...HAVE INCLUDED THIS DRYING AND WARMING
TREND IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AT THE KSLC TERMINAL. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 0200 UTC AND 0400 UTC. SOUTH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 1200 UTC.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE HAS SURGED INTO SOUTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON
TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. THIS MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
...INTERACTING WITH AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH TO ENHANCE THE
LIKELIHOOD AND COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. SATURDAY
USHERS IN A BRIEF DRYING TREND QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH WILL INCREASE WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL AGAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
FIRE WEATHER...VERZELLA
AVIATION...GRAHAM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 171540
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
940 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER UTAH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
STATE LATER TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A PACIFIC
TROUGH WHICH WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...YET ANOTHER DAY OF WARM AND MOSTLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE
HAS SETTLED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MUCH OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. OFF
TO THE SOUTH...TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS SPINNING OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND PUSHING MOISTURE INTO PRIMARILY ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME OF THIS DEEPER MOISTURE JUST
BARELY PUSHING INTO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH...WITH ABOUT ONE INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER ST. GEORGE. THAT SAID...MOST OF THE
HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER...WITH MOSTLY DIURNAL TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A PACIFIC TROUGH IS STILL
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH...INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP DRAW SOME MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO UTAH...SETTING UP WHAT COULD BE AN ACTIVE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE 12Z RUNS WITH
RESPECT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS TROUGH.

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES
ARE PLANNED THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 19-20Z...WITH A 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE SWITCH WILL BE DELAYED AN HOUR OR TWO. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
AVIATION...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 171540
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
940 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER UTAH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
STATE LATER TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A PACIFIC
TROUGH WHICH WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...YET ANOTHER DAY OF WARM AND MOSTLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE
HAS SETTLED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MUCH OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. OFF
TO THE SOUTH...TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS SPINNING OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND PUSHING MOISTURE INTO PRIMARILY ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME OF THIS DEEPER MOISTURE JUST
BARELY PUSHING INTO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH...WITH ABOUT ONE INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER ST. GEORGE. THAT SAID...MOST OF THE
HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER...WITH MOSTLY DIURNAL TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A PACIFIC TROUGH IS STILL
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH...INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP DRAW SOME MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO UTAH...SETTING UP WHAT COULD BE AN ACTIVE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE 12Z RUNS WITH
RESPECT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS TROUGH.

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES
ARE PLANNED THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 19-20Z...WITH A 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE SWITCH WILL BE DELAYED AN HOUR OR TWO. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
AVIATION...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 171540
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
940 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER UTAH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
STATE LATER TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A PACIFIC
TROUGH WHICH WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...YET ANOTHER DAY OF WARM AND MOSTLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE
HAS SETTLED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MUCH OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. OFF
TO THE SOUTH...TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS SPINNING OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND PUSHING MOISTURE INTO PRIMARILY ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME OF THIS DEEPER MOISTURE JUST
BARELY PUSHING INTO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH...WITH ABOUT ONE INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER ST. GEORGE. THAT SAID...MOST OF THE
HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER...WITH MOSTLY DIURNAL TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A PACIFIC TROUGH IS STILL
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH...INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP DRAW SOME MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO UTAH...SETTING UP WHAT COULD BE AN ACTIVE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE 12Z RUNS WITH
RESPECT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS TROUGH.

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES
ARE PLANNED THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 19-20Z...WITH A 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE SWITCH WILL BE DELAYED AN HOUR OR TWO. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
AVIATION...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 171540
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
940 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER UTAH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
STATE LATER TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A PACIFIC
TROUGH WHICH WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...YET ANOTHER DAY OF WARM AND MOSTLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE
HAS SETTLED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MUCH OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. OFF
TO THE SOUTH...TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS SPINNING OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND PUSHING MOISTURE INTO PRIMARILY ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME OF THIS DEEPER MOISTURE JUST
BARELY PUSHING INTO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH...WITH ABOUT ONE INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER ST. GEORGE. THAT SAID...MOST OF THE
HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER...WITH MOSTLY DIURNAL TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A PACIFIC TROUGH IS STILL
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH...INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP DRAW SOME MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO UTAH...SETTING UP WHAT COULD BE AN ACTIVE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE 12Z RUNS WITH
RESPECT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS TROUGH.

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES
ARE PLANNED THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 19-20Z...WITH A 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE SWITCH WILL BE DELAYED AN HOUR OR TWO. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
AVIATION...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 171049
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
449 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER UTAH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
STATE LATER TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH WILL SETTLE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SQUARELY
OVER UTAH THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE LATER TODAY.
THIS SHIFT WILL ALLOW THE MOISTURE POOLED ACROSS ARIZONA TO SHIFT
NORTH AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR
130W. THIS TROUGH WILL SERVE TO GENERATE INCREASING CONVECTION AS
IT SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM ODILE...CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WILL REMAIN A MAJOR PLAYER ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TROPICAL STORM...THOUGH
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER THROUGH THURSDAY. THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE SOUTH OF UTAH AS THE REMNANT OF THE STORM MOVES EAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

THOUGH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO REACH
UTAH...A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STILL REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS ARIZONA...AND IS POISED TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH NEARING 130W THIS MORNING. FOR TODAY A BROAD AREA
OF /.60/ TO /.80/ INCH PWAT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
FORMING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE SOUTHERN BORDER REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW
OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. THE LATEST NAM DOES SHOW A
BIT OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY WHICH
COULD SIGNAL HIGHER PWATS FUELING THE SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION. FOR
NOW NOT PLANNING ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME ISSUES IN THE MOST FLOOD PRONE AREAS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF UTAH.

FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHERN UTAH AS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN FOR
LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED NEAR 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL REACH NORTHWEST UTAH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL MEET UP
WITH MOISTURE WORKING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN UTAH. A SITUATION
COULD DEVELOP WHERE STRONG CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE LATE THURSDAY. GOOD SURFACE HEATING ACROSS WESTERN
UTAH WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AT THE SAME TIME COOLING
ALOFT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF ENHANCED JET-INDUCED UPPER DIVERGENCE COULD FORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST UTAH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE ELEMENTS ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH COULD PRODUCE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

THE SPLITTING OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY STEM ANY EASTWARD ADVANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE STATE
AND LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKEN OF THE PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH. WILL MAINTAIN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SPLITTING
TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIP MAY BRIEFLY FOCUS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SPLIT TROUGH AS IT CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THE CLOSED LOW THAT FORMS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SPLIT
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL BECOME THE FEATURE
TO FOCUS ON LATE IN THE WEEKEND. FOR SATURDAY THE DIFFLUENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE NORTHEAST FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW COULD
SUPPORT SOME CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOT LOOKING
FOR SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME AS THE LOW REMAINS TOO FAR
REMOVED FROM EVEN SOUTHWEST UTAH.



&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z SUNDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO REFLECT
SIMILAR THINKING OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOCAL/NEVADA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND ITS EVOLUTION THEREAFTER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NAMELY IT WILL SLOWLY CHURN NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TAPPING MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AS IT DOES SO. MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
ALLOWED FOR A FURTHER INCREASE TO POPS ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS TRAJECTORIES AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW SUPPORT A NET
MOISTENING TREND WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1 INCH MOST AREAS. COMBINING
THIS WITH DYNAMIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE TROUGH ENVIRONMENT
AND ACTUAL UPPER LOW PASSAGE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS NOW LOOK
LIKELY. A DRYING NEAR WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THIS CONVECTION
TO TAPER WEST TO EAST TUESDAY OWING TO A COOL BUT DRY TRANSITION
THEREAFTER INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST SURFACE ARE
EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 19-20Z AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD LIGHT
WINDS AND VERY WARM TEMPS TODAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER
ARIZONA WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE FAR SOUTH LATE TODAY AND
COMBINED WITH MAX HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED BUILDUPS AND
SCATTERED STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AN APPROACHING
TROUGH WILL PULL THIS MOISTURE NORTH TOMORROW ALLOWING FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY...FOCUSING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
DISTRICT. A DRYING TREND WILL START THE WEEKEND BUT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CONGER/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 171049
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
449 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER UTAH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
STATE LATER TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH WILL SETTLE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SQUARELY
OVER UTAH THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE LATER TODAY.
THIS SHIFT WILL ALLOW THE MOISTURE POOLED ACROSS ARIZONA TO SHIFT
NORTH AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR
130W. THIS TROUGH WILL SERVE TO GENERATE INCREASING CONVECTION AS
IT SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM ODILE...CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WILL REMAIN A MAJOR PLAYER ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TROPICAL STORM...THOUGH
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER THROUGH THURSDAY. THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE SOUTH OF UTAH AS THE REMNANT OF THE STORM MOVES EAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

THOUGH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO REACH
UTAH...A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STILL REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS ARIZONA...AND IS POISED TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH NEARING 130W THIS MORNING. FOR TODAY A BROAD AREA
OF /.60/ TO /.80/ INCH PWAT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
FORMING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE SOUTHERN BORDER REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW
OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. THE LATEST NAM DOES SHOW A
BIT OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY WHICH
COULD SIGNAL HIGHER PWATS FUELING THE SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION. FOR
NOW NOT PLANNING ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME ISSUES IN THE MOST FLOOD PRONE AREAS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF UTAH.

FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHERN UTAH AS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN FOR
LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED NEAR 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL REACH NORTHWEST UTAH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL MEET UP
WITH MOISTURE WORKING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN UTAH. A SITUATION
COULD DEVELOP WHERE STRONG CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE LATE THURSDAY. GOOD SURFACE HEATING ACROSS WESTERN
UTAH WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AT THE SAME TIME COOLING
ALOFT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF ENHANCED JET-INDUCED UPPER DIVERGENCE COULD FORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST UTAH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE ELEMENTS ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH COULD PRODUCE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

THE SPLITTING OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY STEM ANY EASTWARD ADVANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE STATE
AND LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKEN OF THE PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH. WILL MAINTAIN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SPLITTING
TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIP MAY BRIEFLY FOCUS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SPLIT TROUGH AS IT CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THE CLOSED LOW THAT FORMS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SPLIT
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL BECOME THE FEATURE
TO FOCUS ON LATE IN THE WEEKEND. FOR SATURDAY THE DIFFLUENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE NORTHEAST FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW COULD
SUPPORT SOME CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOT LOOKING
FOR SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME AS THE LOW REMAINS TOO FAR
REMOVED FROM EVEN SOUTHWEST UTAH.



&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z SUNDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO REFLECT
SIMILAR THINKING OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOCAL/NEVADA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND ITS EVOLUTION THEREAFTER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NAMELY IT WILL SLOWLY CHURN NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TAPPING MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AS IT DOES SO. MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
ALLOWED FOR A FURTHER INCREASE TO POPS ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS TRAJECTORIES AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW SUPPORT A NET
MOISTENING TREND WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1 INCH MOST AREAS. COMBINING
THIS WITH DYNAMIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE TROUGH ENVIRONMENT
AND ACTUAL UPPER LOW PASSAGE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS NOW LOOK
LIKELY. A DRYING NEAR WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THIS CONVECTION
TO TAPER WEST TO EAST TUESDAY OWING TO A COOL BUT DRY TRANSITION
THEREAFTER INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST SURFACE ARE
EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 19-20Z AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD LIGHT
WINDS AND VERY WARM TEMPS TODAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER
ARIZONA WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE FAR SOUTH LATE TODAY AND
COMBINED WITH MAX HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED BUILDUPS AND
SCATTERED STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AN APPROACHING
TROUGH WILL PULL THIS MOISTURE NORTH TOMORROW ALLOWING FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY...FOCUSING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
DISTRICT. A DRYING TREND WILL START THE WEEKEND BUT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CONGER/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 171049
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
449 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER UTAH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
STATE LATER TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH WILL SETTLE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SQUARELY
OVER UTAH THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE LATER TODAY.
THIS SHIFT WILL ALLOW THE MOISTURE POOLED ACROSS ARIZONA TO SHIFT
NORTH AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR
130W. THIS TROUGH WILL SERVE TO GENERATE INCREASING CONVECTION AS
IT SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM ODILE...CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WILL REMAIN A MAJOR PLAYER ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TROPICAL STORM...THOUGH
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER THROUGH THURSDAY. THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE SOUTH OF UTAH AS THE REMNANT OF THE STORM MOVES EAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

THOUGH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO REACH
UTAH...A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STILL REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS ARIZONA...AND IS POISED TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH NEARING 130W THIS MORNING. FOR TODAY A BROAD AREA
OF /.60/ TO /.80/ INCH PWAT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
FORMING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE SOUTHERN BORDER REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW
OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. THE LATEST NAM DOES SHOW A
BIT OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY WHICH
COULD SIGNAL HIGHER PWATS FUELING THE SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION. FOR
NOW NOT PLANNING ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME ISSUES IN THE MOST FLOOD PRONE AREAS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF UTAH.

FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHERN UTAH AS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN FOR
LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED NEAR 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL REACH NORTHWEST UTAH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL MEET UP
WITH MOISTURE WORKING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN UTAH. A SITUATION
COULD DEVELOP WHERE STRONG CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE LATE THURSDAY. GOOD SURFACE HEATING ACROSS WESTERN
UTAH WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AT THE SAME TIME COOLING
ALOFT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF ENHANCED JET-INDUCED UPPER DIVERGENCE COULD FORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST UTAH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE ELEMENTS ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH COULD PRODUCE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

THE SPLITTING OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY STEM ANY EASTWARD ADVANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE STATE
AND LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKEN OF THE PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH. WILL MAINTAIN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SPLITTING
TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIP MAY BRIEFLY FOCUS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SPLIT TROUGH AS IT CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THE CLOSED LOW THAT FORMS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SPLIT
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL BECOME THE FEATURE
TO FOCUS ON LATE IN THE WEEKEND. FOR SATURDAY THE DIFFLUENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE NORTHEAST FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW COULD
SUPPORT SOME CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOT LOOKING
FOR SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME AS THE LOW REMAINS TOO FAR
REMOVED FROM EVEN SOUTHWEST UTAH.



&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z SUNDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO REFLECT
SIMILAR THINKING OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOCAL/NEVADA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND ITS EVOLUTION THEREAFTER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NAMELY IT WILL SLOWLY CHURN NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TAPPING MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AS IT DOES SO. MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
ALLOWED FOR A FURTHER INCREASE TO POPS ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS TRAJECTORIES AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW SUPPORT A NET
MOISTENING TREND WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1 INCH MOST AREAS. COMBINING
THIS WITH DYNAMIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE TROUGH ENVIRONMENT
AND ACTUAL UPPER LOW PASSAGE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS NOW LOOK
LIKELY. A DRYING NEAR WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THIS CONVECTION
TO TAPER WEST TO EAST TUESDAY OWING TO A COOL BUT DRY TRANSITION
THEREAFTER INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST SURFACE ARE
EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 19-20Z AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD LIGHT
WINDS AND VERY WARM TEMPS TODAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER
ARIZONA WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE FAR SOUTH LATE TODAY AND
COMBINED WITH MAX HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED BUILDUPS AND
SCATTERED STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AN APPROACHING
TROUGH WILL PULL THIS MOISTURE NORTH TOMORROW ALLOWING FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY...FOCUSING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
DISTRICT. A DRYING TREND WILL START THE WEEKEND BUT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CONGER/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 171049
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
449 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER UTAH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
STATE LATER TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH WILL SETTLE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SQUARELY
OVER UTAH THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE LATER TODAY.
THIS SHIFT WILL ALLOW THE MOISTURE POOLED ACROSS ARIZONA TO SHIFT
NORTH AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR
130W. THIS TROUGH WILL SERVE TO GENERATE INCREASING CONVECTION AS
IT SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM ODILE...CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WILL REMAIN A MAJOR PLAYER ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TROPICAL STORM...THOUGH
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER THROUGH THURSDAY. THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE SOUTH OF UTAH AS THE REMNANT OF THE STORM MOVES EAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

THOUGH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO REACH
UTAH...A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STILL REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS ARIZONA...AND IS POISED TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH NEARING 130W THIS MORNING. FOR TODAY A BROAD AREA
OF /.60/ TO /.80/ INCH PWAT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
FORMING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE SOUTHERN BORDER REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW
OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. THE LATEST NAM DOES SHOW A
BIT OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY WHICH
COULD SIGNAL HIGHER PWATS FUELING THE SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION. FOR
NOW NOT PLANNING ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME ISSUES IN THE MOST FLOOD PRONE AREAS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF UTAH.

FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHERN UTAH AS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN FOR
LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED NEAR 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL REACH NORTHWEST UTAH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL MEET UP
WITH MOISTURE WORKING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN UTAH. A SITUATION
COULD DEVELOP WHERE STRONG CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE LATE THURSDAY. GOOD SURFACE HEATING ACROSS WESTERN
UTAH WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AT THE SAME TIME COOLING
ALOFT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF ENHANCED JET-INDUCED UPPER DIVERGENCE COULD FORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST UTAH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE ELEMENTS ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH COULD PRODUCE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

THE SPLITTING OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY STEM ANY EASTWARD ADVANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE STATE
AND LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKEN OF THE PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH. WILL MAINTAIN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SPLITTING
TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIP MAY BRIEFLY FOCUS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SPLIT TROUGH AS IT CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THE CLOSED LOW THAT FORMS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SPLIT
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL BECOME THE FEATURE
TO FOCUS ON LATE IN THE WEEKEND. FOR SATURDAY THE DIFFLUENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE NORTHEAST FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW COULD
SUPPORT SOME CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOT LOOKING
FOR SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME AS THE LOW REMAINS TOO FAR
REMOVED FROM EVEN SOUTHWEST UTAH.



&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z SUNDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO REFLECT
SIMILAR THINKING OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOCAL/NEVADA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND ITS EVOLUTION THEREAFTER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NAMELY IT WILL SLOWLY CHURN NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TAPPING MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AS IT DOES SO. MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
ALLOWED FOR A FURTHER INCREASE TO POPS ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS TRAJECTORIES AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW SUPPORT A NET
MOISTENING TREND WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1 INCH MOST AREAS. COMBINING
THIS WITH DYNAMIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE TROUGH ENVIRONMENT
AND ACTUAL UPPER LOW PASSAGE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS NOW LOOK
LIKELY. A DRYING NEAR WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THIS CONVECTION
TO TAPER WEST TO EAST TUESDAY OWING TO A COOL BUT DRY TRANSITION
THEREAFTER INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST SURFACE ARE
EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 19-20Z AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD LIGHT
WINDS AND VERY WARM TEMPS TODAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER
ARIZONA WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE FAR SOUTH LATE TODAY AND
COMBINED WITH MAX HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED BUILDUPS AND
SCATTERED STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AN APPROACHING
TROUGH WILL PULL THIS MOISTURE NORTH TOMORROW ALLOWING FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY...FOCUSING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
DISTRICT. A DRYING TREND WILL START THE WEEKEND BUT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CONGER/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 170336
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
936 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS UTAH WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD
OF AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER UTAH THIS EVENING.
WARM AIRMASS UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE ALLOWED MAX TEMPERATURES TO RISE
TO 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MANY LOCALES. MODEST
MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
MOSTLY BETWEEN 0.6-0.7 INCHES COMBINED WITH MINIMAL FORCING ALLOWED
ONLY A FEW DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
TODAY. MOST HAVE NOW TAPERED OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...LEADING TO A QUIET NIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONCERNS.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH TOMORROW...BUT LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST ELSEWHERE. LATEST MODELS ALL HAVE THE BULK OF
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ODILE REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM STILL EXPECTED MAINLY NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA.

UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO REDUCE POP/SKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT THE KSLC TERMINAL. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 170336
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
936 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS UTAH WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD
OF AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER UTAH THIS EVENING.
WARM AIRMASS UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE ALLOWED MAX TEMPERATURES TO RISE
TO 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MANY LOCALES. MODEST
MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
MOSTLY BETWEEN 0.6-0.7 INCHES COMBINED WITH MINIMAL FORCING ALLOWED
ONLY A FEW DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
TODAY. MOST HAVE NOW TAPERED OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...LEADING TO A QUIET NIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONCERNS.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH TOMORROW...BUT LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST ELSEWHERE. LATEST MODELS ALL HAVE THE BULK OF
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ODILE REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM STILL EXPECTED MAINLY NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA.

UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO REDUCE POP/SKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT THE KSLC TERMINAL. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 162215
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
415 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS UTAH WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA
WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN OVER MUCH
OF UTAH THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.



&&

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING TO BRING WARM AND STABLE
CONDITIONS TO UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
LINGERING UNDER THE RIDGE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT MOST OF THESE STORMS
ARE STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH HEIGHT OR LONGEVITY.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY SIMILAR DAY TO TODAY...WITH ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER...AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. THAT SAID...THE BEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z THURSDAY...WITH ONE INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FORECAST TO BARELY MOVE OVER UTAH. OTHER THAN
HELPING TO ESTABLISH THIS MODERATE MOISTURE IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA...TROPICAL STORM ODILE HAS BASICALLY BECOME A NON-FACTOR
FOR THE UTAH WEATHER...AS IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
EASTWARD NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER AND REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA.

A DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT
WILL DRAW PW VALUES OF 1.0 TO 1.1 INCHES OVER PRETTY MUCH THE
ENTIRE CWA. THE PRIMARY FORCING FROM THIS TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND COMBINED WITH GOOD
SHEAR COULD ALLOW SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THURSDAY. PERHAPS THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST IS THAT THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING VERY LITTLE QPF OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF UTAH...AS ALL OF THE FORCING REMAINS IN THE
NORTH. HAVE REDUCED POPS FOR THE SOUTH FOR MOST OF THE EVENT...BUT
STILL KEPT THEM AROUND 40-60 PERCENT FOR THE PEAK OF THE
STORM...AS ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST TYPICAL
DIURNAL ACTIVITY.

THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH HELPS TO PUSH DRIER
AIR INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY...DECREASING THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION HEADING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CUT
OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY.

MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE STRUGGLED ON WHAT TO DO WITH
THIS LOW AFTER IT CUTS OFF...BUT THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE FINALLY COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT...AND THEIR CURRENT SOLUTION
WILL NOT BE GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE WHO WERE HOPING FOR A DRY WEEKEND.
BOTH MODELS KEEP THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH DRAWS MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD INTO
UTAH. THIS MOISTURE REACHES SOUTHWEST UTAH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND THEN INTO MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
STATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION ALSO CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS DIRECTLY ACROSS UTAH. HAVE BEGUN
INCREASING POPS FOR THIS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAME...AND
POPS WILL HAVE TO BE INCREASED EVEN MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS
IF THE MODELS HOLD ONTO THIS SOLUTION.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT THE KSLC TERMINAL. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 0200 UTC AND 0400 UTC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE STATEWIDE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO ENVELOP THE
REGION. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AGAIN OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH MOUNTAINS...WHILE MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WEST DESERT AREAS. A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE
WILL INFILTRATE SOUTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND SPREAD NORTHWARD
BY THURSDAY... CATAPULTING RH VALUES AND DELIVERING A SOLID CHANCE
OF WETTING RAINS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
FIRE WEATHER...VERZELLA
AVIATION...GRAHAM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 162215
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
415 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS UTAH WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA
WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN OVER MUCH
OF UTAH THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.



&&

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING TO BRING WARM AND STABLE
CONDITIONS TO UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
LINGERING UNDER THE RIDGE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT MOST OF THESE STORMS
ARE STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH HEIGHT OR LONGEVITY.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY SIMILAR DAY TO TODAY...WITH ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER...AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. THAT SAID...THE BEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z THURSDAY...WITH ONE INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FORECAST TO BARELY MOVE OVER UTAH. OTHER THAN
HELPING TO ESTABLISH THIS MODERATE MOISTURE IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA...TROPICAL STORM ODILE HAS BASICALLY BECOME A NON-FACTOR
FOR THE UTAH WEATHER...AS IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
EASTWARD NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER AND REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA.

A DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT
WILL DRAW PW VALUES OF 1.0 TO 1.1 INCHES OVER PRETTY MUCH THE
ENTIRE CWA. THE PRIMARY FORCING FROM THIS TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND COMBINED WITH GOOD
SHEAR COULD ALLOW SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THURSDAY. PERHAPS THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST IS THAT THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING VERY LITTLE QPF OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF UTAH...AS ALL OF THE FORCING REMAINS IN THE
NORTH. HAVE REDUCED POPS FOR THE SOUTH FOR MOST OF THE EVENT...BUT
STILL KEPT THEM AROUND 40-60 PERCENT FOR THE PEAK OF THE
STORM...AS ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST TYPICAL
DIURNAL ACTIVITY.

THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH HELPS TO PUSH DRIER
AIR INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY...DECREASING THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION HEADING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CUT
OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY.

MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE STRUGGLED ON WHAT TO DO WITH
THIS LOW AFTER IT CUTS OFF...BUT THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE FINALLY COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT...AND THEIR CURRENT SOLUTION
WILL NOT BE GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE WHO WERE HOPING FOR A DRY WEEKEND.
BOTH MODELS KEEP THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH DRAWS MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD INTO
UTAH. THIS MOISTURE REACHES SOUTHWEST UTAH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND THEN INTO MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
STATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION ALSO CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS DIRECTLY ACROSS UTAH. HAVE BEGUN
INCREASING POPS FOR THIS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAME...AND
POPS WILL HAVE TO BE INCREASED EVEN MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS
IF THE MODELS HOLD ONTO THIS SOLUTION.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT THE KSLC TERMINAL. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 0200 UTC AND 0400 UTC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE STATEWIDE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO ENVELOP THE
REGION. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AGAIN OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH MOUNTAINS...WHILE MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WEST DESERT AREAS. A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE
WILL INFILTRATE SOUTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND SPREAD NORTHWARD
BY THURSDAY... CATAPULTING RH VALUES AND DELIVERING A SOLID CHANCE
OF WETTING RAINS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
FIRE WEATHER...VERZELLA
AVIATION...GRAHAM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 162215
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
415 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS UTAH WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA
WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN OVER MUCH
OF UTAH THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.



&&

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING TO BRING WARM AND STABLE
CONDITIONS TO UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
LINGERING UNDER THE RIDGE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT MOST OF THESE STORMS
ARE STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH HEIGHT OR LONGEVITY.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY SIMILAR DAY TO TODAY...WITH ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER...AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. THAT SAID...THE BEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z THURSDAY...WITH ONE INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FORECAST TO BARELY MOVE OVER UTAH. OTHER THAN
HELPING TO ESTABLISH THIS MODERATE MOISTURE IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA...TROPICAL STORM ODILE HAS BASICALLY BECOME A NON-FACTOR
FOR THE UTAH WEATHER...AS IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
EASTWARD NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER AND REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA.

A DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT
WILL DRAW PW VALUES OF 1.0 TO 1.1 INCHES OVER PRETTY MUCH THE
ENTIRE CWA. THE PRIMARY FORCING FROM THIS TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND COMBINED WITH GOOD
SHEAR COULD ALLOW SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THURSDAY. PERHAPS THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST IS THAT THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING VERY LITTLE QPF OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF UTAH...AS ALL OF THE FORCING REMAINS IN THE
NORTH. HAVE REDUCED POPS FOR THE SOUTH FOR MOST OF THE EVENT...BUT
STILL KEPT THEM AROUND 40-60 PERCENT FOR THE PEAK OF THE
STORM...AS ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST TYPICAL
DIURNAL ACTIVITY.

THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH HELPS TO PUSH DRIER
AIR INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY...DECREASING THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION HEADING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CUT
OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY.

MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE STRUGGLED ON WHAT TO DO WITH
THIS LOW AFTER IT CUTS OFF...BUT THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE FINALLY COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT...AND THEIR CURRENT SOLUTION
WILL NOT BE GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE WHO WERE HOPING FOR A DRY WEEKEND.
BOTH MODELS KEEP THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH DRAWS MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD INTO
UTAH. THIS MOISTURE REACHES SOUTHWEST UTAH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND THEN INTO MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
STATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION ALSO CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS DIRECTLY ACROSS UTAH. HAVE BEGUN
INCREASING POPS FOR THIS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAME...AND
POPS WILL HAVE TO BE INCREASED EVEN MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS
IF THE MODELS HOLD ONTO THIS SOLUTION.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT THE KSLC TERMINAL. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 0200 UTC AND 0400 UTC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE STATEWIDE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO ENVELOP THE
REGION. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AGAIN OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH MOUNTAINS...WHILE MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WEST DESERT AREAS. A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE
WILL INFILTRATE SOUTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND SPREAD NORTHWARD
BY THURSDAY... CATAPULTING RH VALUES AND DELIVERING A SOLID CHANCE
OF WETTING RAINS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
FIRE WEATHER...VERZELLA
AVIATION...GRAHAM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 162215
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
415 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS UTAH WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA
WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN OVER MUCH
OF UTAH THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.



&&

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING TO BRING WARM AND STABLE
CONDITIONS TO UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
LINGERING UNDER THE RIDGE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT MOST OF THESE STORMS
ARE STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH HEIGHT OR LONGEVITY.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY SIMILAR DAY TO TODAY...WITH ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER...AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. THAT SAID...THE BEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z THURSDAY...WITH ONE INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FORECAST TO BARELY MOVE OVER UTAH. OTHER THAN
HELPING TO ESTABLISH THIS MODERATE MOISTURE IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA...TROPICAL STORM ODILE HAS BASICALLY BECOME A NON-FACTOR
FOR THE UTAH WEATHER...AS IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
EASTWARD NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER AND REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA.

A DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT
WILL DRAW PW VALUES OF 1.0 TO 1.1 INCHES OVER PRETTY MUCH THE
ENTIRE CWA. THE PRIMARY FORCING FROM THIS TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND COMBINED WITH GOOD
SHEAR COULD ALLOW SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THURSDAY. PERHAPS THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST IS THAT THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING VERY LITTLE QPF OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF UTAH...AS ALL OF THE FORCING REMAINS IN THE
NORTH. HAVE REDUCED POPS FOR THE SOUTH FOR MOST OF THE EVENT...BUT
STILL KEPT THEM AROUND 40-60 PERCENT FOR THE PEAK OF THE
STORM...AS ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST TYPICAL
DIURNAL ACTIVITY.

THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH HELPS TO PUSH DRIER
AIR INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY...DECREASING THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION HEADING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CUT
OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY.

MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE STRUGGLED ON WHAT TO DO WITH
THIS LOW AFTER IT CUTS OFF...BUT THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE FINALLY COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT...AND THEIR CURRENT SOLUTION
WILL NOT BE GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE WHO WERE HOPING FOR A DRY WEEKEND.
BOTH MODELS KEEP THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH DRAWS MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD INTO
UTAH. THIS MOISTURE REACHES SOUTHWEST UTAH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND THEN INTO MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
STATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION ALSO CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS DIRECTLY ACROSS UTAH. HAVE BEGUN
INCREASING POPS FOR THIS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAME...AND
POPS WILL HAVE TO BE INCREASED EVEN MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS
IF THE MODELS HOLD ONTO THIS SOLUTION.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT THE KSLC TERMINAL. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 0200 UTC AND 0400 UTC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE STATEWIDE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO ENVELOP THE
REGION. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AGAIN OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH MOUNTAINS...WHILE MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WEST DESERT AREAS. A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE
WILL INFILTRATE SOUTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND SPREAD NORTHWARD
BY THURSDAY... CATAPULTING RH VALUES AND DELIVERING A SOLID CHANCE
OF WETTING RAINS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
FIRE WEATHER...VERZELLA
AVIATION...GRAHAM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 161546
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
946 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS UTAH WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA
WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN OVER MUCH
OF UTAH THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER UTAH THIS
MORNING...BRINGING WARM CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPERIENCING SUNNY SKIES THIS
MORNING...WHILE THE NORTHERN THIRD HAS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND ALONG THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER.

MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS IMPACTING ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO...BUT THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER THROUGH TODAY. WITH RELATIVELY LIMITED
MOISTURE ACROSS UTAH...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ONCE THIS MORNINGS NORTHERN
WAVE PASSES.

THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER ARIZONA BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE 1.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
LINE GRAZING THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE
CWA IS STILL THURSDAY...WHEN MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA...AND ADDITIONAL DYNAMICS ARE PROVIDED BY A TROUGH
MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. PART OF THE FOCUS OF TODAYS FORECAST
WILL BE ON IF/WHEN/WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT BE WARRANTED
WITH THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE.

UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL UPDATE AT THE MOMENT WOULD BE IF THIS NORTHERN
WAVE MOVES MORE SLOWLY THAN FORECAST...WHICH COULD MAKE ADDITIONAL
POPS NECESSARY FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED
TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 19-20Z AND VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS FROM VICINITY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
AVIATION...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 161546
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
946 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS UTAH WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA
WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN OVER MUCH
OF UTAH THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER UTAH THIS
MORNING...BRINGING WARM CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPERIENCING SUNNY SKIES THIS
MORNING...WHILE THE NORTHERN THIRD HAS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND ALONG THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER.

MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS IMPACTING ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO...BUT THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER THROUGH TODAY. WITH RELATIVELY LIMITED
MOISTURE ACROSS UTAH...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ONCE THIS MORNINGS NORTHERN
WAVE PASSES.

THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER ARIZONA BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE 1.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
LINE GRAZING THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE
CWA IS STILL THURSDAY...WHEN MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA...AND ADDITIONAL DYNAMICS ARE PROVIDED BY A TROUGH
MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. PART OF THE FOCUS OF TODAYS FORECAST
WILL BE ON IF/WHEN/WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT BE WARRANTED
WITH THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE.

UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL UPDATE AT THE MOMENT WOULD BE IF THIS NORTHERN
WAVE MOVES MORE SLOWLY THAN FORECAST...WHICH COULD MAKE ADDITIONAL
POPS NECESSARY FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED
TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 19-20Z AND VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS FROM VICINITY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
AVIATION...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 161546
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
946 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS UTAH WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA
WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN OVER MUCH
OF UTAH THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER UTAH THIS
MORNING...BRINGING WARM CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPERIENCING SUNNY SKIES THIS
MORNING...WHILE THE NORTHERN THIRD HAS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND ALONG THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER.

MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS IMPACTING ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO...BUT THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER THROUGH TODAY. WITH RELATIVELY LIMITED
MOISTURE ACROSS UTAH...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ONCE THIS MORNINGS NORTHERN
WAVE PASSES.

THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER ARIZONA BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE 1.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
LINE GRAZING THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE
CWA IS STILL THURSDAY...WHEN MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA...AND ADDITIONAL DYNAMICS ARE PROVIDED BY A TROUGH
MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. PART OF THE FOCUS OF TODAYS FORECAST
WILL BE ON IF/WHEN/WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT BE WARRANTED
WITH THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE.

UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL UPDATE AT THE MOMENT WOULD BE IF THIS NORTHERN
WAVE MOVES MORE SLOWLY THAN FORECAST...WHICH COULD MAKE ADDITIONAL
POPS NECESSARY FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED
TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 19-20Z AND VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS FROM VICINITY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
AVIATION...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 161546
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
946 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS UTAH WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA
WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN OVER MUCH
OF UTAH THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER UTAH THIS
MORNING...BRINGING WARM CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPERIENCING SUNNY SKIES THIS
MORNING...WHILE THE NORTHERN THIRD HAS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND ALONG THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER.

MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS IMPACTING ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO...BUT THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER THROUGH TODAY. WITH RELATIVELY LIMITED
MOISTURE ACROSS UTAH...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ONCE THIS MORNINGS NORTHERN
WAVE PASSES.

THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER ARIZONA BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE 1.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
LINE GRAZING THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE
CWA IS STILL THURSDAY...WHEN MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA...AND ADDITIONAL DYNAMICS ARE PROVIDED BY A TROUGH
MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. PART OF THE FOCUS OF TODAYS FORECAST
WILL BE ON IF/WHEN/WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT BE WARRANTED
WITH THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE.

UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL UPDATE AT THE MOMENT WOULD BE IF THIS NORTHERN
WAVE MOVES MORE SLOWLY THAN FORECAST...WHICH COULD MAKE ADDITIONAL
POPS NECESSARY FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED
TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 19-20Z AND VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS FROM VICINITY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
AVIATION...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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