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000
FXUS65 KSLC 020851
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
251 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MILD WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN UTAH LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A CONSIDERABLE WARMING TREND ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL UT...AS THE COOL STABLE AIRMASS WHICH HAS BEEN IN
PLACE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS ERODES.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. A SHALLOW COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN UT LATE IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER COOLDOWN FOR THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE NORTH. MEANWHILE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK WILL MAINTAIN A MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT
IT APPEARS ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE SURGE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
AZ/NM...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SOUTH...AND HAVE LEFT GOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 17-19Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ONTO THE NORTHWEST COAST.
THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS
WASHINGTON AND OREGON WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
CREATE BREEZY AND RATHER DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FIRE DISTRICT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ALSO SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS UTAH
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WINDS MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY...AND LIKELY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
UTAH...IF FUEL MOISTURES LOWER. AS OF TODAY...FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS
WERE STILL HIGH ENOUGH THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/YOUNG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 020851
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
251 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MILD WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN UTAH LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A CONSIDERABLE WARMING TREND ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL UT...AS THE COOL STABLE AIRMASS WHICH HAS BEEN IN
PLACE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS ERODES.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. A SHALLOW COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN UT LATE IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER COOLDOWN FOR THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE NORTH. MEANWHILE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK WILL MAINTAIN A MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT
IT APPEARS ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE SURGE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
AZ/NM...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SOUTH...AND HAVE LEFT GOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 17-19Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ONTO THE NORTHWEST COAST.
THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS
WASHINGTON AND OREGON WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
CREATE BREEZY AND RATHER DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FIRE DISTRICT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ALSO SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS UTAH
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WINDS MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY...AND LIKELY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
UTAH...IF FUEL MOISTURES LOWER. AS OF TODAY...FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS
WERE STILL HIGH ENOUGH THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/YOUNG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 020045
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
645 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WILL PROPAGATE A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH
HEIGHTS RISING DUE TO A RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. AMDAR 400- 250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A 90-130KT
CYCLONIC JET FROM ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THEN LIFTING NORTHAST
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z RAOB
INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.2"
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TO 0.7" SOUTHEAST VALLEYS.

GOING FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADD SOME GUSTINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN TERRAIN INTO DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF UINTA BASIN AND
CASTLE COUNTRY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL ABATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS
OF MIXING.

CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RESULT OF THIS DRY STABLE AIRMASS. RAP 850-
700MB THICKNESS INCREASES DURING THE NEXT 12HR SUGGESTING AIRMASS
MODIFICATION FROM LAST NIGHT. THUS DID NOT EMPHASIZE THE COLDER
VALLEYS LIKE LAST NIGHT AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES RESULTED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST AREA IS DRY AND STABLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES. NORTHERN UTAH MAXES STILL RUNNING UP TO
5F BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH...BUT TEMPS HAVE WARMED A BIT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
SOUTHERN UTAH MAXES CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR CLIMO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH TUESDAY...RESULTING IN
QUICK WARMING OF TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH SKIES
REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR. BY WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
EAST AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE. THE
RESULTANT SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BRING A BIT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN A BIT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN PIECE MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. THE SOUTHERN PIECE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AS FAR SOUTH AS
SOUTHERN IDAHO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A DECENT COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN UTAH...RESULTING IN MAXES ON THURSDAY THAT ARE 5 TO 10F
BELOW VALUES OBSERVED ON WEDNESDAY.

WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN THE EXITING TROUGH AND ANOTHER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
THIS LOW IS DEPICTED IN BEING STRONGER IN THE GFS THAN THE LATEST
ECMWF. THE GFS SLOWLY BRINGS THIS SYSTEM ONSHORE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHILE IT REMAINS OFFSHORE IN THE EC. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMO FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHILE KEEPING JUST A
BIT OF CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO THE SOUTH OF
UTAH WILL MAINTAIN A DRY/STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA INTO
LATE TUESDAY. A NEW AND FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CREATE BREEZY
AND RATHER DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FIRE
DISTRICTS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY. THE EXPECTED LOW RH ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WIND SPEEDS WOULD INDICATE HAZARDOUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY...AND LIKELY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH. FUEL MOISTURES AT LAST CHECK WERE STILL HIGH ENOUGH
THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE CAVEAT
TO THIS IS WITH A COUPLE OF DAYS OF LOWERING RH VALUES AND
INCREASING WINDS FUELS COULD DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY MAY BE THE DAY TO KEEP AN EYE ON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF UTAH MAY HAVE SUFFICIENT DRY FUELS BY THAT
TIME...AND MAY SEE POCKETS OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UTAH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CONGER
AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 012118
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
318 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH ON THURSDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST AREA IS DRY AND STABLE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CLEAR SKIES. NORTHERN UTAH MAXES STILL RUNNING UP TO 5F
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH...BUT
TEMPS HAVE WARMED A BIT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SOUTHERN UTAH MAXES
CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR CLIMO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN QUICK WARMING OF TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH
SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR. BY WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT EAST AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE.
THE RESULTANT SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BRING A BIT OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN A BIT OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN PIECE MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. THE SOUTHERN PIECE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AS FAR SOUTH AS
SOUTHERN IDAHO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A DECENT COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN UTAH...RESULTING IN MAXES ON THURSDAY THAT ARE 5 TO 10F
BELOW VALUES OBSERVED ON WEDNESDAY.

WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN THE EXITING TROUGH AND ANOTHER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS LOW IS DEPICTED IN BEING STRONGER IN THE GFS THAN THE
LATEST ECMWF. THE GFS SLOWLY BRINGS THIS SYSTEM ONSHORE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHILE IT REMAINS OFFSHORE IN THE EC. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMO FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHILE KEEPING JUST
A BIT OF CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO THE SOUTH OF
UTAH WILL MAINTAIN A DRY/STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA INTO
LATE TUESDAY. A NEW AND FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CREATE BREEZY
AND RATHER DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FIRE
DISTRICTS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY. THE EXPECTED LOW RH ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WIND SPEEDS WOULD INDICATE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY...AND LIKELY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH. FUEL MOISTURES AT LAST CHECK WERE STILL HIGH ENOUGH
THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE CAVEAT
TO THIS IS WITH A COUPLE OF DAYS OF LOWERING RH VALUES AND
INCREASING WINDS FUELS COULD DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY MAY BE THE DAY TO KEEP AN EYE ON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF UTAH MAY HAVE SUFFICIENT DRY FUELS BY THAT
TIME...AND MAY SEE POCKETS OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UTAH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CONGER
AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 012118
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
318 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH ON THURSDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST AREA IS DRY AND STABLE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CLEAR SKIES. NORTHERN UTAH MAXES STILL RUNNING UP TO 5F
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH...BUT
TEMPS HAVE WARMED A BIT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SOUTHERN UTAH MAXES
CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR CLIMO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN QUICK WARMING OF TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH
SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR. BY WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT EAST AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE.
THE RESULTANT SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BRING A BIT OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN A BIT OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN PIECE MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. THE SOUTHERN PIECE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AS FAR SOUTH AS
SOUTHERN IDAHO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A DECENT COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN UTAH...RESULTING IN MAXES ON THURSDAY THAT ARE 5 TO 10F
BELOW VALUES OBSERVED ON WEDNESDAY.

WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN THE EXITING TROUGH AND ANOTHER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS LOW IS DEPICTED IN BEING STRONGER IN THE GFS THAN THE
LATEST ECMWF. THE GFS SLOWLY BRINGS THIS SYSTEM ONSHORE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHILE IT REMAINS OFFSHORE IN THE EC. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMO FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHILE KEEPING JUST
A BIT OF CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO THE SOUTH OF
UTAH WILL MAINTAIN A DRY/STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA INTO
LATE TUESDAY. A NEW AND FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CREATE BREEZY
AND RATHER DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FIRE
DISTRICTS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY. THE EXPECTED LOW RH ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WIND SPEEDS WOULD INDICATE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY...AND LIKELY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH. FUEL MOISTURES AT LAST CHECK WERE STILL HIGH ENOUGH
THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE CAVEAT
TO THIS IS WITH A COUPLE OF DAYS OF LOWERING RH VALUES AND
INCREASING WINDS FUELS COULD DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY MAY BE THE DAY TO KEEP AN EYE ON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF UTAH MAY HAVE SUFFICIENT DRY FUELS BY THAT
TIME...AND MAY SEE POCKETS OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UTAH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CONGER
AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 011558
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
958 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING UNDER A DRY AND STABLE W/NW FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
A WARMING TREND. MAXES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO TODAY OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH...THOUGH NORTHERN UTAH WILL STILL REMAIN ABOUT 5F BELOW THOSE
VALUES. FOR TOMORROW...ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD BE A BIT ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.

THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY AS A SPLITTING PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA...INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BACK INTO THE
FORECAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A DRY COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN UTAH THURSDAY AS IT MOVES BY THE UT/ID BORDER...BRINGING
TEMPS BACK BELOW CLIMO...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.

NO UPDATES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...THE STABLE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT MID-MORNING WILL
TURN TO A PREVAILING NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY AROUND 17Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...CONGER

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 011558
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
958 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING UNDER A DRY AND STABLE W/NW FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
A WARMING TREND. MAXES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO TODAY OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH...THOUGH NORTHERN UTAH WILL STILL REMAIN ABOUT 5F BELOW THOSE
VALUES. FOR TOMORROW...ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD BE A BIT ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.

THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY AS A SPLITTING PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA...INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BACK INTO THE
FORECAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A DRY COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN UTAH THURSDAY AS IT MOVES BY THE UT/ID BORDER...BRINGING
TEMPS BACK BELOW CLIMO...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.

NO UPDATES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...THE STABLE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT MID-MORNING WILL
TURN TO A PREVAILING NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY AROUND 17Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...CONGER

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 011558
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
958 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING UNDER A DRY AND STABLE W/NW FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
A WARMING TREND. MAXES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO TODAY OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH...THOUGH NORTHERN UTAH WILL STILL REMAIN ABOUT 5F BELOW THOSE
VALUES. FOR TOMORROW...ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD BE A BIT ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.

THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY AS A SPLITTING PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA...INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BACK INTO THE
FORECAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A DRY COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN UTAH THURSDAY AS IT MOVES BY THE UT/ID BORDER...BRINGING
TEMPS BACK BELOW CLIMO...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.

NO UPDATES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...THE STABLE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT MID-MORNING WILL
TURN TO A PREVAILING NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY AROUND 17Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...CONGER

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 011558
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
958 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING UNDER A DRY AND STABLE W/NW FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
A WARMING TREND. MAXES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO TODAY OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH...THOUGH NORTHERN UTAH WILL STILL REMAIN ABOUT 5F BELOW THOSE
VALUES. FOR TOMORROW...ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD BE A BIT ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.

THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY AS A SPLITTING PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA...INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BACK INTO THE
FORECAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A DRY COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN UTAH THURSDAY AS IT MOVES BY THE UT/ID BORDER...BRINGING
TEMPS BACK BELOW CLIMO...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.

NO UPDATES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...THE STABLE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT MID-MORNING WILL
TURN TO A PREVAILING NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY AROUND 17Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...CONGER

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 010834
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
234 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND. A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH
PUSHED THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
REMAINS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN UT...AND WILL EFFECTIVELY DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT
GRADUALLY MODIFIES. AS SUCH HAVE MAINTAINED A WARMING TREND ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY
TO DAY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH.

THE FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AND AS SUCH HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST TROPICAL
MOISTURE EVENTUALLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BE AN INTERESTING
SCENARIO...THE ECMWF HAS NOT CLIMBED ON BOARD WITH THIS IDEA. AS
SUCH HAVE LEFT ONLY TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z AT THE SLC TERMINAL. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...COOLER WITH A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS TODAY...THUS
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REBOUNDS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS MIDWEEK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN UTAH ARE ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM. THIS STORM SYSTEM COULD DRAW MOISTURE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/YOUNG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 010834
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
234 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND. A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH
PUSHED THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
REMAINS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN UT...AND WILL EFFECTIVELY DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT
GRADUALLY MODIFIES. AS SUCH HAVE MAINTAINED A WARMING TREND ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY
TO DAY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH.

THE FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AND AS SUCH HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST TROPICAL
MOISTURE EVENTUALLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BE AN INTERESTING
SCENARIO...THE ECMWF HAS NOT CLIMBED ON BOARD WITH THIS IDEA. AS
SUCH HAVE LEFT ONLY TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z AT THE SLC TERMINAL. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...COOLER WITH A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS TODAY...THUS
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REBOUNDS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS MIDWEEK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN UTAH ARE ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM. THIS STORM SYSTEM COULD DRAW MOISTURE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/YOUNG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 010104
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
704 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING
A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
PREVAILING WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A 75-125KT
NORTHWESTERLY JET FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.2" NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TO 0.7" NORTHWEST
VALLEYS.

DRY STABLE AIRMASS IN CONTROL WITH NO CONVECTIVE THREAT TONIGHT. IN
FACT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS LAST OF DIURNAL CUMULUS DECAYING OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE LOWERED SKY GRIDS TO INDICATE A CLEAR
NIGHT FOR MOST.

RAP INDICATES PRESSURE GRADIENT EASING OVERNIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
SLACKEN AT MANY LOCATIONS THOUGH WILL HOLD A NORTHERLY GRADIENT
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE COMBINATION OF A DRY AIRMASS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND DECREASING WINDS...SEEMED PRUDENT TO UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE FOR
THE NORMALLY COOLER VALLEYS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
WYOMING MOVES QUICKLY OUT OF THE REGION. A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
HAS MOVED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN JUST SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN UTAH ARE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY...AROUND 10F BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN UTAH ARE SIMILAR TO VALUES
OBSERVED YESTERDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK...ALLOWING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. THE BUILDING
RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND...WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO
BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY TUESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

BY WEDNESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ALL MOVE A TROUGH ONSHORE ALONG THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THEY HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...SLOWING PUSHING IT INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY FRIDAY AS IT SPLITS. THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED ONLY TO GET AS FAR SOUTHERN AS SOUTHERN IDAHO. HOWEVER...IT
WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA EAST...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW JUST A BIT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
SOME CONVECTION PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF UTAH.
THE SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN UTAH...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
03Z AND 05Z AT THE SLC TERMINAL...THOUGH PERIODS OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH 07Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES OVERNIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER...DRY AND STABLE AIR FOLLOWING THE
FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
THROUGH MONDAY.

A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTH OF UTAH. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS MIDWEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY WILL GENERATE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH. THIS STORM SYSTEM
COULD ALSO DRAW SOME MOISTURE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN UTAH FOR LATE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION FORM OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT
TROUGH SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CONGER
AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 010104
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
704 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING
A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
PREVAILING WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A 75-125KT
NORTHWESTERLY JET FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.2" NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TO 0.7" NORTHWEST
VALLEYS.

DRY STABLE AIRMASS IN CONTROL WITH NO CONVECTIVE THREAT TONIGHT. IN
FACT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS LAST OF DIURNAL CUMULUS DECAYING OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE LOWERED SKY GRIDS TO INDICATE A CLEAR
NIGHT FOR MOST.

RAP INDICATES PRESSURE GRADIENT EASING OVERNIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
SLACKEN AT MANY LOCATIONS THOUGH WILL HOLD A NORTHERLY GRADIENT
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE COMBINATION OF A DRY AIRMASS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND DECREASING WINDS...SEEMED PRUDENT TO UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE FOR
THE NORMALLY COOLER VALLEYS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
WYOMING MOVES QUICKLY OUT OF THE REGION. A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
HAS MOVED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN JUST SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN UTAH ARE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY...AROUND 10F BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN UTAH ARE SIMILAR TO VALUES
OBSERVED YESTERDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK...ALLOWING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. THE BUILDING
RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND...WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO
BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY TUESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

BY WEDNESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ALL MOVE A TROUGH ONSHORE ALONG THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THEY HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...SLOWING PUSHING IT INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY FRIDAY AS IT SPLITS. THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED ONLY TO GET AS FAR SOUTHERN AS SOUTHERN IDAHO. HOWEVER...IT
WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA EAST...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW JUST A BIT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
SOME CONVECTION PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF UTAH.
THE SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN UTAH...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
03Z AND 05Z AT THE SLC TERMINAL...THOUGH PERIODS OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH 07Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES OVERNIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER...DRY AND STABLE AIR FOLLOWING THE
FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
THROUGH MONDAY.

A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTH OF UTAH. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS MIDWEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY WILL GENERATE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH. THIS STORM SYSTEM
COULD ALSO DRAW SOME MOISTURE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN UTAH FOR LATE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION FORM OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT
TROUGH SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CONGER
AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 010104
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
704 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING
A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
PREVAILING WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A 75-125KT
NORTHWESTERLY JET FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.2" NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TO 0.7" NORTHWEST
VALLEYS.

DRY STABLE AIRMASS IN CONTROL WITH NO CONVECTIVE THREAT TONIGHT. IN
FACT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS LAST OF DIURNAL CUMULUS DECAYING OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE LOWERED SKY GRIDS TO INDICATE A CLEAR
NIGHT FOR MOST.

RAP INDICATES PRESSURE GRADIENT EASING OVERNIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
SLACKEN AT MANY LOCATIONS THOUGH WILL HOLD A NORTHERLY GRADIENT
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE COMBINATION OF A DRY AIRMASS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND DECREASING WINDS...SEEMED PRUDENT TO UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE FOR
THE NORMALLY COOLER VALLEYS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
WYOMING MOVES QUICKLY OUT OF THE REGION. A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
HAS MOVED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN JUST SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN UTAH ARE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY...AROUND 10F BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN UTAH ARE SIMILAR TO VALUES
OBSERVED YESTERDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK...ALLOWING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. THE BUILDING
RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND...WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO
BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY TUESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

BY WEDNESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ALL MOVE A TROUGH ONSHORE ALONG THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THEY HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...SLOWING PUSHING IT INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY FRIDAY AS IT SPLITS. THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED ONLY TO GET AS FAR SOUTHERN AS SOUTHERN IDAHO. HOWEVER...IT
WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA EAST...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW JUST A BIT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
SOME CONVECTION PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF UTAH.
THE SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN UTAH...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
03Z AND 05Z AT THE SLC TERMINAL...THOUGH PERIODS OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH 07Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES OVERNIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER...DRY AND STABLE AIR FOLLOWING THE
FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
THROUGH MONDAY.

A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTH OF UTAH. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS MIDWEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY WILL GENERATE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH. THIS STORM SYSTEM
COULD ALSO DRAW SOME MOISTURE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN UTAH FOR LATE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION FORM OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT
TROUGH SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CONGER
AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 010104
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
704 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING
A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
PREVAILING WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A 75-125KT
NORTHWESTERLY JET FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.2" NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TO 0.7" NORTHWEST
VALLEYS.

DRY STABLE AIRMASS IN CONTROL WITH NO CONVECTIVE THREAT TONIGHT. IN
FACT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS LAST OF DIURNAL CUMULUS DECAYING OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE LOWERED SKY GRIDS TO INDICATE A CLEAR
NIGHT FOR MOST.

RAP INDICATES PRESSURE GRADIENT EASING OVERNIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
SLACKEN AT MANY LOCATIONS THOUGH WILL HOLD A NORTHERLY GRADIENT
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE COMBINATION OF A DRY AIRMASS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND DECREASING WINDS...SEEMED PRUDENT TO UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE FOR
THE NORMALLY COOLER VALLEYS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
WYOMING MOVES QUICKLY OUT OF THE REGION. A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
HAS MOVED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN JUST SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN UTAH ARE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY...AROUND 10F BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN UTAH ARE SIMILAR TO VALUES
OBSERVED YESTERDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK...ALLOWING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. THE BUILDING
RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND...WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO
BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY TUESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

BY WEDNESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ALL MOVE A TROUGH ONSHORE ALONG THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THEY HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...SLOWING PUSHING IT INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY FRIDAY AS IT SPLITS. THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED ONLY TO GET AS FAR SOUTHERN AS SOUTHERN IDAHO. HOWEVER...IT
WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA EAST...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW JUST A BIT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
SOME CONVECTION PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF UTAH.
THE SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN UTAH...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
03Z AND 05Z AT THE SLC TERMINAL...THOUGH PERIODS OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH 07Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES OVERNIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER...DRY AND STABLE AIR FOLLOWING THE
FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
THROUGH MONDAY.

A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTH OF UTAH. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS MIDWEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY WILL GENERATE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH. THIS STORM SYSTEM
COULD ALSO DRAW SOME MOISTURE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN UTAH FOR LATE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION FORM OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT
TROUGH SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CONGER
AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 312141
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
341 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING
A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
WYOMING MOVES QUICKLY OUT OF THE REGION. A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
HAS MOVED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN JUST SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN UTAH ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...AROUND 10F BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN UTAH ARE SIMILAR TO
VALUES OBSERVED YESTERDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK...ALLOWING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. THE
BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND...WITH MAXES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

BY WEDNESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ALL MOVE A TROUGH ONSHORE ALONG THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THEY HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...SLOWING PUSHING IT INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY FRIDAY AS IT SPLITS. THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED ONLY TO GET AS FAR SOUTHERN AS SOUTHERN IDAHO.
HOWEVER...IT WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA EAST...ALLOWING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW JUST A BIT OF MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...RESULTING IN SOME CONVECTION PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF UTAH. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
GUSTY FROM 21Z THROUGH 00Z...BUT THERE IS ONLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 MPH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO
THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z...THOUGH PERIODS OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH 07Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES OVERNIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER...DRY AND STABLE AIR FOLLOWING THE
FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
THROUGH MONDAY.

A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTH OF UTAH. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS MIDWEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY WILL GENERATE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH. THIS STORM SYSTEM
COULD ALSO DRAW SOME MOISTURE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN UTAH FOR LATE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION FORM OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT
TROUGH SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CONGER
AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 312141
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
341 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING
A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
WYOMING MOVES QUICKLY OUT OF THE REGION. A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
HAS MOVED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN JUST SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN UTAH ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...AROUND 10F BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN UTAH ARE SIMILAR TO
VALUES OBSERVED YESTERDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK...ALLOWING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. THE
BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND...WITH MAXES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

BY WEDNESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ALL MOVE A TROUGH ONSHORE ALONG THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THEY HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...SLOWING PUSHING IT INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY FRIDAY AS IT SPLITS. THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED ONLY TO GET AS FAR SOUTHERN AS SOUTHERN IDAHO.
HOWEVER...IT WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA EAST...ALLOWING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW JUST A BIT OF MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...RESULTING IN SOME CONVECTION PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF UTAH. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
GUSTY FROM 21Z THROUGH 00Z...BUT THERE IS ONLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 MPH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO
THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z...THOUGH PERIODS OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH 07Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES OVERNIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER...DRY AND STABLE AIR FOLLOWING THE
FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
THROUGH MONDAY.

A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTH OF UTAH. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS MIDWEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY WILL GENERATE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH. THIS STORM SYSTEM
COULD ALSO DRAW SOME MOISTURE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN UTAH FOR LATE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION FORM OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT
TROUGH SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CONGER
AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 311603
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1003 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
UTAH TODAY AS THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXITS THE REGION. A DRIER AND
MORE STABLE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS EASED INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING...CURRENTLY NEAR A KCDC-KPUC LINE. THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND IS
CONTINUING EASTWARD OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHAT LITTLE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT HAS ALL BUT DIMINISHED AND SKIES
ARE RAPIDLY CLEARING. DESPITE SOME LINGERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UT/ID BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN UTAH BEHIND THE
FRONT. OBSERVED SOUNDING AT KSLC SHOWS 700 MB TEMPERATURE OF
+2C...COMPARED TO +12C AT THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. AS A
RESULT...MAXES TODAY SHOULD RUN ABOUT 10F BELOW VALUES OBSERVED
YESTERDAY OVER NORTHERN UTAH...WITH MUCH LESS COOLING OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN UTAH WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK AT
BEST.

DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE RIDGE EASTWARD MIDWEEK...ALLOWING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP AND CAUSING SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY.

NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF LAST NIGHTS COLD
FRONT WILL PREVAIL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH AT LEAST MID SUNDAY
EVENING. THE EXIT OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL BRING A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO NORTHERN UTAH. VFR
CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...CONGER

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 311603
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1003 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
UTAH TODAY AS THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXITS THE REGION. A DRIER AND
MORE STABLE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS EASED INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING...CURRENTLY NEAR A KCDC-KPUC LINE. THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND IS
CONTINUING EASTWARD OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHAT LITTLE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT HAS ALL BUT DIMINISHED AND SKIES
ARE RAPIDLY CLEARING. DESPITE SOME LINGERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UT/ID BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN UTAH BEHIND THE
FRONT. OBSERVED SOUNDING AT KSLC SHOWS 700 MB TEMPERATURE OF
+2C...COMPARED TO +12C AT THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. AS A
RESULT...MAXES TODAY SHOULD RUN ABOUT 10F BELOW VALUES OBSERVED
YESTERDAY OVER NORTHERN UTAH...WITH MUCH LESS COOLING OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN UTAH WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK AT
BEST.

DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE RIDGE EASTWARD MIDWEEK...ALLOWING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP AND CAUSING SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY.

NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF LAST NIGHTS COLD
FRONT WILL PREVAIL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH AT LEAST MID SUNDAY
EVENING. THE EXIT OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL BRING A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO NORTHERN UTAH. VFR
CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...CONGER

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 311029
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
429 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH TODAY...AS
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN UTAH. A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE PATTERN WILL RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN HAS PUSHED A SURFACE COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL UT EARLY THIS MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHWEST UT...WHILE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED CONFINED TO THE ID
BORDER REGION...WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT OWING TO A COMBINATION OF
JET DYNAMICS AND VORTICITY ADVECTION COUPLED WITH DEEPER
INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM COOLER 500MB TEMPERATURES...IS
GREATEST. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ANTICIPATE THE PRECIP THREAT WILL END BY MID TO LATE MORNING
ACROSS THESE AREAS. HAVE CONFINED ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80 THIS MORNING IN
ADDITION TO THE WESTERN UINTAS/WASATCH RANGE. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER
ACROSS NORTHERN UT FROM WHAT WAS OBSERVED SATURDAY...WHILE LITTLE
IF ANY CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALLOWING FOR A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND DURING THIS TIME. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW
ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BACK TO SOUTHWEST...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A
BIT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO THE
REGION. DESPITE THIS HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS
OF 12Z THURSDAY. THE EC KEEPS THE TROUGH AXIS TILTED SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AND BRINGS IT ACROSS UTAH ON SATURDAY. WINDS AHEAD ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND DEVELOPS A
CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER UTAH ALLOWING FOR THE IMPORT OF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. HAVE SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE FOR NOW BUT IF HISTORY TENDS TO REPEAT ITSELF THEN THE
GFS SOLUTION HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF VERIFYING AS THIS PATTERN HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT THROUGH AUGUST. DO TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
LONGER RANGE HAVE TRENDED THE TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD BEYOND
THURSDAY BUT COULD EASILY SEE TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION IS THE LEASE LIKELY.


&&

.AVIATION...MODERATELY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX BETWEEN 12 AND
13Z ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THEM REMAINING GUSTY
THROUGH 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT NORTHERN
UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AFTER SUNRISE. BREEZY CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN VALLEYS WILL SUBSIDE BY MID
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS OVER CENTRAL UTAH. SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS THERE TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THIS
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARDS TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
TUESDAY AND LIKELY CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL INTO THURSDAY. SEVERAL
DAYS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH WHICH WILL AID IN
THE DRYING OF THE FUELS...ESPECIALLY THE FINE FUELS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 311029
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
429 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH TODAY...AS
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN UTAH. A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE PATTERN WILL RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN HAS PUSHED A SURFACE COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL UT EARLY THIS MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHWEST UT...WHILE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED CONFINED TO THE ID
BORDER REGION...WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT OWING TO A COMBINATION OF
JET DYNAMICS AND VORTICITY ADVECTION COUPLED WITH DEEPER
INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM COOLER 500MB TEMPERATURES...IS
GREATEST. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ANTICIPATE THE PRECIP THREAT WILL END BY MID TO LATE MORNING
ACROSS THESE AREAS. HAVE CONFINED ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80 THIS MORNING IN
ADDITION TO THE WESTERN UINTAS/WASATCH RANGE. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER
ACROSS NORTHERN UT FROM WHAT WAS OBSERVED SATURDAY...WHILE LITTLE
IF ANY CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALLOWING FOR A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND DURING THIS TIME. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW
ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BACK TO SOUTHWEST...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A
BIT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO THE
REGION. DESPITE THIS HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS
OF 12Z THURSDAY. THE EC KEEPS THE TROUGH AXIS TILTED SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AND BRINGS IT ACROSS UTAH ON SATURDAY. WINDS AHEAD ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND DEVELOPS A
CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER UTAH ALLOWING FOR THE IMPORT OF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. HAVE SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE FOR NOW BUT IF HISTORY TENDS TO REPEAT ITSELF THEN THE
GFS SOLUTION HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF VERIFYING AS THIS PATTERN HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT THROUGH AUGUST. DO TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
LONGER RANGE HAVE TRENDED THE TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD BEYOND
THURSDAY BUT COULD EASILY SEE TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION IS THE LEASE LIKELY.


&&

.AVIATION...MODERATELY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX BETWEEN 12 AND
13Z ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THEM REMAINING GUSTY
THROUGH 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT NORTHERN
UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AFTER SUNRISE. BREEZY CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN VALLEYS WILL SUBSIDE BY MID
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS OVER CENTRAL UTAH. SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS THERE TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THIS
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARDS TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
TUESDAY AND LIKELY CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL INTO THURSDAY. SEVERAL
DAYS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH WHICH WILL AID IN
THE DRYING OF THE FUELS...ESPECIALLY THE FINE FUELS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 311029
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
429 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH TODAY...AS
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN UTAH. A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE PATTERN WILL RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN HAS PUSHED A SURFACE COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL UT EARLY THIS MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHWEST UT...WHILE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED CONFINED TO THE ID
BORDER REGION...WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT OWING TO A COMBINATION OF
JET DYNAMICS AND VORTICITY ADVECTION COUPLED WITH DEEPER
INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM COOLER 500MB TEMPERATURES...IS
GREATEST. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ANTICIPATE THE PRECIP THREAT WILL END BY MID TO LATE MORNING
ACROSS THESE AREAS. HAVE CONFINED ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80 THIS MORNING IN
ADDITION TO THE WESTERN UINTAS/WASATCH RANGE. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER
ACROSS NORTHERN UT FROM WHAT WAS OBSERVED SATURDAY...WHILE LITTLE
IF ANY CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALLOWING FOR A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND DURING THIS TIME. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW
ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BACK TO SOUTHWEST...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A
BIT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO THE
REGION. DESPITE THIS HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS
OF 12Z THURSDAY. THE EC KEEPS THE TROUGH AXIS TILTED SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AND BRINGS IT ACROSS UTAH ON SATURDAY. WINDS AHEAD ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND DEVELOPS A
CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER UTAH ALLOWING FOR THE IMPORT OF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. HAVE SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE FOR NOW BUT IF HISTORY TENDS TO REPEAT ITSELF THEN THE
GFS SOLUTION HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF VERIFYING AS THIS PATTERN HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT THROUGH AUGUST. DO TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
LONGER RANGE HAVE TRENDED THE TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD BEYOND
THURSDAY BUT COULD EASILY SEE TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION IS THE LEASE LIKELY.


&&

.AVIATION...MODERATELY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX BETWEEN 12 AND
13Z ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THEM REMAINING GUSTY
THROUGH 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT NORTHERN
UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AFTER SUNRISE. BREEZY CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN VALLEYS WILL SUBSIDE BY MID
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS OVER CENTRAL UTAH. SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS THERE TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THIS
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARDS TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
TUESDAY AND LIKELY CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL INTO THURSDAY. SEVERAL
DAYS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH WHICH WILL AID IN
THE DRYING OF THE FUELS...ESPECIALLY THE FINE FUELS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 311029
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
429 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH TODAY...AS
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN UTAH. A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE PATTERN WILL RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN HAS PUSHED A SURFACE COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL UT EARLY THIS MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHWEST UT...WHILE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED CONFINED TO THE ID
BORDER REGION...WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT OWING TO A COMBINATION OF
JET DYNAMICS AND VORTICITY ADVECTION COUPLED WITH DEEPER
INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM COOLER 500MB TEMPERATURES...IS
GREATEST. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ANTICIPATE THE PRECIP THREAT WILL END BY MID TO LATE MORNING
ACROSS THESE AREAS. HAVE CONFINED ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80 THIS MORNING IN
ADDITION TO THE WESTERN UINTAS/WASATCH RANGE. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER
ACROSS NORTHERN UT FROM WHAT WAS OBSERVED SATURDAY...WHILE LITTLE
IF ANY CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALLOWING FOR A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND DURING THIS TIME. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW
ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BACK TO SOUTHWEST...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A
BIT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO THE
REGION. DESPITE THIS HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS
OF 12Z THURSDAY. THE EC KEEPS THE TROUGH AXIS TILTED SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AND BRINGS IT ACROSS UTAH ON SATURDAY. WINDS AHEAD ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND DEVELOPS A
CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER UTAH ALLOWING FOR THE IMPORT OF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. HAVE SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE FOR NOW BUT IF HISTORY TENDS TO REPEAT ITSELF THEN THE
GFS SOLUTION HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF VERIFYING AS THIS PATTERN HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT THROUGH AUGUST. DO TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
LONGER RANGE HAVE TRENDED THE TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD BEYOND
THURSDAY BUT COULD EASILY SEE TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION IS THE LEASE LIKELY.


&&

.AVIATION...MODERATELY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX BETWEEN 12 AND
13Z ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THEM REMAINING GUSTY
THROUGH 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT NORTHERN
UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AFTER SUNRISE. BREEZY CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN VALLEYS WILL SUBSIDE BY MID
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS OVER CENTRAL UTAH. SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS THERE TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THIS
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARDS TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
TUESDAY AND LIKELY CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL INTO THURSDAY. SEVERAL
DAYS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH WHICH WILL AID IN
THE DRYING OF THE FUELS...ESPECIALLY THE FINE FUELS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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