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000
FXUS65 KSLC 250848
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
248 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY. AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST CANADA. ACARS 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS
SHOW A 50-85KT CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. RAP...GOES...GPS SENSORS...AND 00Z SLC RAOB
INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 0.13"-0.41" RANGE ACROSS
THE REGION.
A DRY...WARM AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PRESIDE TODAY WITH THE
PACIFIC STORM WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATE BUILDING INSTABILITY AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COOL FRONT.
WITH DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION...COOLING ALOFT AND PRESENCE OF A LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY...KEPT HIGHER POPS FOR NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF UTAH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG PACIFIC JET AND TROUGH.
GFS/EUROPEAN AND NAEFS ALL INDICATE THAT THE MOISTURE SURGE IS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA...THUS KEPT MID RANGE SCATTERED POPS DURING THIS
PERIOD. BOTH EUROPEAN AND GFS INDICATE REINFORCING WAVES POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...MAKING FOR A COOL AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED PERIOD...THOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING AND SHOULD
REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR FOR COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT THE KSLC
TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL TREND TO
INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF REACHING AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING CRITERIA AT TIMES
AFTER 17Z...GUSTS GREATER THAN 30MPH THE POTENTIAL. OUTSIDE OF THIS
OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL WITH VFR CONDITIONS
UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES HOLDING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL BE THE DOMINANT FIRE
WEATHER ISSUE TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW ONCE AGAIN. FUELS REMAIN GREEN
AT THIS TIME PER LATEST REPORTS BUT THESE WEATHER FACTORS WOULD
CREATE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IF THIS WAS NOT THE CASE.
EXTENT OF LOW RH AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL EXPAND NORTH
THROUGH MOST ALL AREAS TODAY ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL AID NEAR SURFACE WIND SPEEDS THROUGHOUT.
A TRANSITION AWAY FROM DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO BE
NOTICED AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT MORE SO TUESDAY ON AS A SERIES
OF PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN STATES. AT THE
LEAST INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL BE REALIZED...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
WETTING RAINS FROM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS WELL FOR
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL
AVIATION...MERRILL
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 250304
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
904 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A RETURNING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE DRY AND STABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW AND THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL UTAH.
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BREAKDOWN
LATE SUNDAY...THEN REFORM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PRIOR TO THIS AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL
EJECT OUT OF THE MAIN LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. NOT LOOKING AT ANY REAL
THREAT OF CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH...BUT THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR THAT GETS NUDGED INTO THE EXTREME NORTHWEST WILL KEEP
TEMPS IN CHECK THIS WEEKEND.
A PERIOD OF MORE ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE
BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST GFS GENERATES A FAIRLY
STRONG BUT LOW-AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC WESTERLY INTO THE COAST MONDAY
WITH A DIFFLUENT WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. COOLER
TEMPS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED
WITH THIS INITIAL SURGE. THE THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL LIKELY
INCREASE MOVING INTO MIDWEEK AS A SERIES OF INCREASINGLY STRONG
AND COLDER SYSTEMS PLOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE BOTTOM LINE FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR PRECIP HEADING IN TO THE END OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST CYCLE.
NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT NORTH
WINDS MAKE THE SWITCH BACK TO SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE WINDS AROUND 04-05Z.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY MORNING
BETWEEN 16-17Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THE DRY COLD FRONT THAT DISSIPATED OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AHAS ALLOWED BREEZY SOUTH WINDS TO FORM ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH. A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS WEEKEND WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS BOTH AFTERNOONS. HUMIDITY
WILL REMAIN LOW IN THE AFTERNOON WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THESE WEATHER ELEMENTS WOULD CREATE AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IF FUELS WERE CRITICAL. HOWEVER FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL
AT THIS TIME AND THUS HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
A SERIES OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY...WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH SUNDAY AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS MONDAY ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY. THE
FOLLOWING SYSTEM WILL BRING A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
CONGER
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 242147
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
347 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A WARM TREND THROUGH THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A FEW CONVECTIVE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
WASATCH PLATEAU AND CENTRAL UTAH THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE AVERAGING AROUND 2-4C ABOVE
YESTERDAYS VALUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH SUNDAY...AND SPREAD TO CENTRAL UTAH MONDAY. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
ANYONE BOATING OR TRAVELING WITH HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES AND
TRAILERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THESE AREAS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THAT IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MARKED
DIFFERENCES ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN...BUT THE MAIN
MESSAGE IS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A HIGHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
DECIDED TO ERR A BIT TOWARD THE 12Z EC SOLUTION...UPPING POPS AND
LOWERING TEMPS TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO LEVELS.
INTERESTINGLY...SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE ACTUALLY
RESEMBLE THE 12Z EC. GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF ANY PARTICULAR FEATURE
IS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SWITCH TO SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE WINDS IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN 0200-0400 UTC. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 1500 UTC ON SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY FRONT IS DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH AND EAST. A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
DISTRICT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN MOST
LOCATIONS EACH AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN VERY LOW IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. THESE WEATHER ELEMENTS
WOULD CREATE LOCAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IF FUELS WERE
CRITICAL BUT THEY ARE NOT AT THIS TIME AND THUS HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY
WARNINGS.
A SERIES OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS WILL START TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH
AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS MONDAY ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
BRING A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
KRUSE/WILENSKY/GRAHAM
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 241542
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
942 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF UTAH WILL
DISSIPATE TODAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A RETURN TO A WARM AND DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA
YESTERDAY EVENING AND LAST NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING. DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING AND REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING TEMPERATURES TO MANY LOCATIONS IN THE CWA TODAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING AROUND 1-2 C ABOVE YESTERDAYS VALUES ACROSS
THE WASATCH FRONT THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY SHOWS THIS TREND SO WILL LET THE CURRENT
FORECAST RIDE.
UPDATED WINDS TO INCREASE SPEEDS A BIT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
UTAH. ALSO UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO REMOVE THE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND LOOKS QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AT THE KSLC
TERMINAL THEN SWITCH TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-20Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT AND WILL DISSIPATE TODAY AS A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DOMINATE LOCAL WEATHER.
A BONE DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY AND ACROSS MOST AREAS TOMORROW.
THE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WOULD CREATE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IF FUELS WERE CRITICAL...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT
THAT WE SAW ON THURSDAY.
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
BRINGING WITH IT AN INITIAL ROUND OF HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE NORTH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF WETTING
RAINS.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
KRUSE/WILENSKY
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 240941
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
341 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF UTAH WILL
DISSIPATE TODAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A RETURN TO A WARM AND DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR PUSHED A COLD FRONT TO
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF UTAH OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL DECAY TODAY
AND A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP...THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CHALLENGE OF LATE HAS BEEN TIMING OF WEAK COLD AIR SURGES AS WEST
COAST TROUGH PERSISTS AND WEAK DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
OCCASIONALLY PUSH WEAK COLD FRONTS INTO FORECAST AREA. TOO SOME
DEGREE...SAME CHALLENGE EXISTS THIS PACKAGE...THOUGH VERY FEW
CONCERNS EXIST UNTIL AT LEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WHEN NAM
SUGGESTS NEXT FRONTAL PUSH INTO NORTHERN UTAH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A SLOWER
SOLUTION...BRINGING COLD FRONT ONLY INTO NORTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH ON
MONDAY...BEFORE IT RETREATS. EVEN NAM SUGGESTS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERING
ABOVE...EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH AND HIGH TERRAIN OF WASATCH AND UINTAS
LOOKS GOOD. OTHERWISE...A MILD AND DRY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS ON
TAP.
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND
DEPTH OF WEST COAST TROUGH. GFS SUGGESTS A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH REGION...WITH A STRONG 120KT 300 MB JET. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER ARIZONA...BEFORE
EJECTING EAST. NOT A SINGLE GFS ENSEMBLE RUN INDICATES A CLOSED
LOW...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT UPPER JET ENERGY DOES FAVOR SOME POTENTIAL.
IN ANY CASE...EXPECTED A DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY APPEARS
TO BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION AND HAVE BOOSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME
RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AT
THE KSLC TERMINAL WILL BECOME A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW BY 11-12Z.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL THEN HOLD THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-20Z. OUTSIDE OF THESE WIND SWITCHES
OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THE KSLC
TERMINAL WITH VFR CONDITIONS HOLDING UNDER LARGELY CLEAR SKIES THIS
VALID TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING THE DRY COLD FRONT HAS
SETTLED BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT IS NOW STALLING AND WILL GRADUALLY FIZZLE TODAY
AS A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DOMINATE LOCAL
WEATHER. WITH THIS...BONE DRY AND LOCALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY AND ACROSS MOST ALL AREAS
TOMORROW AS YET ANOTHER WARMING TREND ENSUES DISTRICT WIDE HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
CREATE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IF FUELS ARE/WERE
CRITICAL...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT THAT WE SAW ON THURSDAY.
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
BRINGING WITH IT AN INITIAL ROUND OF HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERRAIN. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL INCREASE THEREAFTER PEAKING MID WEEK WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF
WETTING RAINS AT THAT TIME.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL
PUBLIC...BARJENBRUCH
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 240349
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
949 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS UTAH TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND BACK FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A SECONDARY SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR HAS SERVED
TO BOOST NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH THIS EVENING. THE
LATEST 00Z NAM SHOWS A DECENT COLD ADVECTION PUSH INTO CENTRAL
UTAH LATER TONIGHT. THIS COLDER AIR WILL CATCH UP WITH THE CURRENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER CENTRAL UTAH...AND THEN ACCELERATE
THIS FEATURE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE BY EARLY
FRIDAY.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN UTAH SOUTH OF THE
FRONT HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARD DURING THE EVENING. SUSPECT
THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT PEAK
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE BALANCE OF
THE NIGHT. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH A PROLONGED STRONG WIND EVENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
SOME CONCERN THAT TEMPS WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING IN SOME OF THE
HIGHER NORTHERN VALLEYS...AND A FEW CENTRAL VALLEYS BY LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO AND FAR NORTHERN UTAH. SUBSTANTIALLY
LOWER DEW POINTS JUST UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO COULD TRICKLE
INTO NORTHWEST UTAH LATE TONIGHT. THESE LOWER DEW POINTS...LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COULD BRING TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 20S IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS OF THE FAR
NORTH. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW READING IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE
CENTRAL AND WEST-CENTRAL VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH SUFFICIENT
WINDS SHOULD KEEP READINGS NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST OF THE
PRONE AREAS.
THE MEAN PATTERN OF A TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A STRONG RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BOUNCE BACK ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOOKING AT A
SITUATION WHERE SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE MEAN TROUGH
POSITION WILL GENERATE SHALLOW COOL ADVECTION FOR THE NORTH...
KEEPING TEMPS SOMEWHAT IN CHECK OVER THE WEEKEND. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF MOISTURE WILL FIND ITS WAY INTO THE STATE UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS SUCH WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION OUT OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED EARLIER TO LOWER TEMPS AND REMOVE WIND HEADLINES.
&&
.AVIATION...NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED AT THE KSLC TERMINAL AS
A SECOND DRY COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. THESE WINDS
SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER 05Z...THOUGH A GENERAL NORTH WINDS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THE DRY COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL UTAH WILL SURGE
EAST AND SOUTH AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. LOCAL GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL TRAIL THE FRONT...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND A STILL
DRY AIR MASS. THE STRONG AND DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN
GUSTY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. GENERALLY COOL AND QUITE
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL COVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FIRE
DISTRICTS FRIDAY.
LOCALLY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL REDEVELOP FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND EAST BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS TODAY. THE SOUTH
WINDS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS MOST DISTRICTS BOTH AFTERNOONS THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE AIRMASS STAYING QUITE DRY. EVEN THOUGH WINDS
AND LOW RH MEET CRITERIA...NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE PLANNED
THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY IF FUELS REACH
CRITICAL LEVELS.
THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL START TO AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
A THREAT OF EVENING HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
FAR NORTH. THIS THREAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN FROM THE STORMS AFTER MONDAY.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
CONGER
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 232216
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
416 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL UTAH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND
FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO THE MID 50S
HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN SOME OF THE MORE WIND PRONE LOCATIONS. HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES AND BOATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION
IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z.
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH...ROUGHLY
TO SOUTHERN SALT LAKE COUNTY ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT. A LARGE AND
SOMEWHAT STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN NEVADA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
REINFORCE THE COLD FRONT AND DRIVE IT SOUTH AGAIN THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO MOST
LOCATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
AFTER THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO DECREASE.
LONG RANGE MODELS VARY QUITE A BIT ON THE EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH
ACROSS THE WEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE 12Z CANADIAN BRINGS
THROUGH A RELATIVELY WEAK TROUGH...WHILE THE 12Z GFS BRINGS A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THROUGH THE WEST. THE 12Z EC FORMS A
NEARLY CUT- OFF LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH MEXICO. GIVEN THIS WIDE
RANGE OF SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO ERR TOWARDS A PERIOD OF ABOVE
CLIMO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPERATURES. HOPEFULLY
MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IMPROVE SHORTLY...WITH A
MORE FOCUSED SOLUTION. SOME OF THESE RUNS BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION TO UTAH...SOME JUST A PERIOD OF SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SPEED
OF THESE NORTHWESTERLIES SHOULD DROP BELOW 9 KNOTS BETWEEN 01Z AND
04Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 6 KNOTS OR LESS DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THE DRY FRONT HAS LIFTED BACK UP INTO NORTHWEST UTAH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS AND STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
EAST AND SOUTH AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH LOCAL GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN ALL AREAS LATER TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN
GRADUALLY WASH OUT ON FRIDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
REDEVELOP FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS STRONG AS TODAY. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE AIRMASS WILL STAY
DRY. THE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WOULD CREATE WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THE REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BUT NO
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED AS FUELS ARE NOT CONSIDERED CRITICAL. LOCAL
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR AGAIN EACH DAY FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY IF FUELS REACH CRITICAL LEVELS.
THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL START TO AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
A THREAT OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH. THIS THREAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN FROM THE STORMS AFTER
MONDAY.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
UTZ012>016-019>021.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
KRUSE/WILENSKY/SCHOENING
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS65 KSLC 231618
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1018 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL UTAH TONIGHT REINFORCING THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS BRING A WARMING TREND FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
UTAH. COOLER...MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
AREAS NORTH OF THIS FRONT...WITH WARM...SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES
TO THE SOUTH.
A LARGE AND SEMISTATIONARY TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THIS TROUGH
WILL REINFORCE THE COLD FRONT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE AREA...EXPECT ENHANCED WINDS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS THAT WERE EXPERIENCED
IN THESE AREAS YESTERDAY AND THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS FORECAST
BY THE NAM AND GFS...DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS WITH
THESE WINDS WILL BE STRONG CROSSWINDS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ON
MAINLY EAST-WEST ROUTES INCLUDING US 89 AND I-70. BOATERS IN AREA
LAKES...ESPECIALLY LAKE POWELL...SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ROUGH CHOP.
UPDATED THE ZONES TO INCREASE WINDS. AM A BIT CONCERNED
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH ARE AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGREES TOO
COOL...BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE
UPDATING. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER UPDATES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY OPERATIONAL WEATHER
CONCERN TODAY AT THE KSLC TERMINAL. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY BY 17Z AND REMAIN THAT WAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
LATE TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AIRFIELD. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD REMAIN
VARIABLE OR EVEN LIGHT SOUTHERLY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES AROUND
00-02Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ANY CIGS WELL ABV 7000 FT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY FRONT ACROSS THE DISTRICT WILL WORK BACK NORTH
TODAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN NEVADA
THIS MORNING. SOUTH WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STRONG TODAY AS THIS DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO
VERY LOW LEVELS IN THE DRY AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND COMBINED
WITH THE STRONG WINDS...WOULD CREATE WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IF FUELS WERE CRITICAL. THE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH
THE FRONT BACK SOUTH AND EAST AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH IS STALLING
OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN UTAH BY LATE TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN DRY AND LOCAL GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL REDEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN UTAH BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE
MUCH LOWER THAN TODAY.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
UTZ012>016-019>021.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
KRUSE/WILENSKY
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
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