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000
FXUS65 KSLC 242140
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
340 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP MOISTURE OUT OF NORTHERN UTAH
TODAY WHILE IT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z MONDAY)...A FAIRLY COLD TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...WITH
-20C 500 MB TEMPERATURES RECORDED NEAR SPOKANE WASHINGTON THIS
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM
UTAH COUNTY SOUTHWEST TO NEAR GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK.
WHILE A LARGE COOLDOWN IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS UTAH...TEMPERATURES
HAVE AVERAGED AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAYS HIGHS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.

THIS COLD FRONT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY...AND IS NOT EXPECTED
TO MAKE MUCH MORE PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN UTAH...CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED...WITH THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CAPITOL REEF NATIONAL PARK AREA AS WELL AS THE
BOOKCLIFFS. THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ANY CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS
WILL BE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. CELLS HAVE BEEN TRAINING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF CAPITOL REEF...SO ANYONE TRAVELING
IN THIS AREA SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS.

OTHERWISE...CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE GFS BEGINS TO CREEP MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHWESTERN
UTAH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEVADA AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT MEAGER.

THIS SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE NEVADA/UTAH BORDER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL UTAH...PROVIDING ANOTHER DAY OF
CONVECTION. COVERAGE IS AGAIN QUESTIONABLE...BUT INCREASED POPS
OVER FRIDAYS VALUES ACROSS THESE AREAS.

ENHANCED MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD. EXPECT THE TYPICAL END OF
JULY PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z MONDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS ALL INDICATE A
MONSOONAL SURGE FOR MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST EAST OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING THE FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. GFS CONTINUES TO
BE MORE BULLISH COMPARED TO THE EC...SHOWING PWS OF 1.2 TO 1.3 INCH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE. LATEST EC RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
WETTER...AND THE GFS HAS SHOWN MORE OVERALL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
SO AM MORE APT TO BELIEVE THE WETTER SOLUTION. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST A
LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

BY TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE LOOKS TO DRIFT BACK
OVERHEAD...RESULTING IN SOME MODEST DRYING FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH THAT IN MIND...FORECASTED PWS IN THE
0.75 TO 1.0 INCH RANGE WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. MAXES LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLE OR JUST
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST LATER THAN USUAL THIS EVENING. THE EXPECTED TIME OF RETURN
OF SOUTH WINDS IS AROUND 06-08Z...BUT THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT IT WILL OCCUR LATER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...COLD FRONT IS DRAPED OVER NORTH CENTRAL UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL STALL OVER CENTRAL UTAH THIS EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHILE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS EXIST BEHIND IT. STORMS WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. FOR TOMORROW...MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH...ALLOWING FOR THE THREAT
OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE AS NORTHERN UTAH REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY.
ADDITIONALLY...BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SEVERE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL DECREASE TRANSPORT WINDS BUT MOISTURE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND UNDER THE RIDGE...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SURGE
BACK INTO THE DISTRICT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

KRUSE/TRAPHAGAN/CHENG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 242140
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
340 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP MOISTURE OUT OF NORTHERN UTAH
TODAY WHILE IT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z MONDAY)...A FAIRLY COLD TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...WITH
-20C 500 MB TEMPERATURES RECORDED NEAR SPOKANE WASHINGTON THIS
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM
UTAH COUNTY SOUTHWEST TO NEAR GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK.
WHILE A LARGE COOLDOWN IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS UTAH...TEMPERATURES
HAVE AVERAGED AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAYS HIGHS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.

THIS COLD FRONT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY...AND IS NOT EXPECTED
TO MAKE MUCH MORE PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN UTAH...CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED...WITH THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CAPITOL REEF NATIONAL PARK AREA AS WELL AS THE
BOOKCLIFFS. THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ANY CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS
WILL BE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. CELLS HAVE BEEN TRAINING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF CAPITOL REEF...SO ANYONE TRAVELING
IN THIS AREA SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS.

OTHERWISE...CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE GFS BEGINS TO CREEP MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHWESTERN
UTAH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEVADA AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT MEAGER.

THIS SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE NEVADA/UTAH BORDER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL UTAH...PROVIDING ANOTHER DAY OF
CONVECTION. COVERAGE IS AGAIN QUESTIONABLE...BUT INCREASED POPS
OVER FRIDAYS VALUES ACROSS THESE AREAS.

ENHANCED MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD. EXPECT THE TYPICAL END OF
JULY PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z MONDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS ALL INDICATE A
MONSOONAL SURGE FOR MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST EAST OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING THE FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. GFS CONTINUES TO
BE MORE BULLISH COMPARED TO THE EC...SHOWING PWS OF 1.2 TO 1.3 INCH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE. LATEST EC RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
WETTER...AND THE GFS HAS SHOWN MORE OVERALL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
SO AM MORE APT TO BELIEVE THE WETTER SOLUTION. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST A
LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

BY TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE LOOKS TO DRIFT BACK
OVERHEAD...RESULTING IN SOME MODEST DRYING FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH THAT IN MIND...FORECASTED PWS IN THE
0.75 TO 1.0 INCH RANGE WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. MAXES LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLE OR JUST
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST LATER THAN USUAL THIS EVENING. THE EXPECTED TIME OF RETURN
OF SOUTH WINDS IS AROUND 06-08Z...BUT THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT IT WILL OCCUR LATER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...COLD FRONT IS DRAPED OVER NORTH CENTRAL UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL STALL OVER CENTRAL UTAH THIS EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHILE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS EXIST BEHIND IT. STORMS WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. FOR TOMORROW...MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH...ALLOWING FOR THE THREAT
OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE AS NORTHERN UTAH REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY.
ADDITIONALLY...BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SEVERE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL DECREASE TRANSPORT WINDS BUT MOISTURE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND UNDER THE RIDGE...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SURGE
BACK INTO THE DISTRICT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

KRUSE/TRAPHAGAN/CHENG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 241546
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
946 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP MOISTURE OUT OF NORTHERN UTAH
TODAY WHILE IT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM ROUGHLY
SALT LAKE CITY TO SOUTH OF WENDOVER. STABLE...DRIER AIR CAN BE
FOUND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WITH THE RELATIVELY
MOIST...UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERN UTAH...WHILE PRE-FRONTAL...WILL REMAIN IN DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING ANY THREAT OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
AREA.

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING A BIT FASTER
THEN EXPECTED SO UPDATED WIND GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN UTAH THIS
MORNING AND WILL STALL OVER CENTRAL UTAH BY THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...AND
LIGHTNING COULD CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS. OVER SOUTHERN UTAH...STORMS
COULD PRODUCE WETTING RAINS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD BE GUSTY
AT TIMES TOMORROW...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHERN UTAH. WINDS WILL
DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

KRUSE/TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 241546
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
946 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP MOISTURE OUT OF NORTHERN UTAH
TODAY WHILE IT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM ROUGHLY
SALT LAKE CITY TO SOUTH OF WENDOVER. STABLE...DRIER AIR CAN BE
FOUND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WITH THE RELATIVELY
MOIST...UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERN UTAH...WHILE PRE-FRONTAL...WILL REMAIN IN DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING ANY THREAT OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
AREA.

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING A BIT FASTER
THEN EXPECTED SO UPDATED WIND GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN UTAH THIS
MORNING AND WILL STALL OVER CENTRAL UTAH BY THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...AND
LIGHTNING COULD CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS. OVER SOUTHERN UTAH...STORMS
COULD PRODUCE WETTING RAINS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD BE GUSTY
AT TIMES TOMORROW...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHERN UTAH. WINDS WILL
DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

KRUSE/TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 241546
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
946 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP MOISTURE OUT OF NORTHERN UTAH
TODAY WHILE IT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM ROUGHLY
SALT LAKE CITY TO SOUTH OF WENDOVER. STABLE...DRIER AIR CAN BE
FOUND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WITH THE RELATIVELY
MOIST...UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERN UTAH...WHILE PRE-FRONTAL...WILL REMAIN IN DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING ANY THREAT OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
AREA.

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING A BIT FASTER
THEN EXPECTED SO UPDATED WIND GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN UTAH THIS
MORNING AND WILL STALL OVER CENTRAL UTAH BY THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...AND
LIGHTNING COULD CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS. OVER SOUTHERN UTAH...STORMS
COULD PRODUCE WETTING RAINS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD BE GUSTY
AT TIMES TOMORROW...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHERN UTAH. WINDS WILL
DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

KRUSE/TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 241546
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
946 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP MOISTURE OUT OF NORTHERN UTAH
TODAY WHILE IT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM ROUGHLY
SALT LAKE CITY TO SOUTH OF WENDOVER. STABLE...DRIER AIR CAN BE
FOUND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WITH THE RELATIVELY
MOIST...UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERN UTAH...WHILE PRE-FRONTAL...WILL REMAIN IN DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING ANY THREAT OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
AREA.

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING A BIT FASTER
THEN EXPECTED SO UPDATED WIND GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN UTAH THIS
MORNING AND WILL STALL OVER CENTRAL UTAH BY THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...AND
LIGHTNING COULD CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS. OVER SOUTHERN UTAH...STORMS
COULD PRODUCE WETTING RAINS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD BE GUSTY
AT TIMES TOMORROW...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHERN UTAH. WINDS WILL
DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

KRUSE/TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 241016
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
416 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF UTAH THIS EVENING.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THIS MOISTURE OUT OF NORTHERN UTAH
THURSDAY WHILE IT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z MONDAY)...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...SANDWICHED
BETWEEN A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES BACK INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND AN UPPER LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A PLUME OF
MOISTURE WITHIN THIS FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST
QUARTER OF UTAH THIS MORNING. THE ENTRANCE REGION TO A 90KT JET
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH IS HELPING TO
MAINTAIN WEAK CONVECTION ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
DUGWAY-ALPINE SOUTH AND EASTWARD...WHILE NORTH OF THIS AREA DRIER
AIR ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS SPREAD ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST UT. COULD STILL SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SPILL OVER
INTO PORTIONS OF SALT LAKE COUNTY FOR A TIME EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THIS FRONT AND ATTENDANT DRYING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH ANY LINGERING CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING CONFINED TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT 700MB TEMPS COOL 4-5C...WHICH SHOULD
KNOCK MAX TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ALONG THE
WASATCH FRONT.

AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW RACES EASTWARD TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT...A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN UT
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...AND EVEN
INCREASES GRADUALLY WITH TIME...ACROSS SOUTHERN UT MAINTAINING A
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LITTLE VARIATION IN DAILY
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MAX
TEMPS RUNNING NEAR CLIMO...WHILE TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY OVER
THE SOUTH WITH THE SLOW INFLUX OF MOISTURE.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND WITH THE AXIS REMAINING EAST OF THE
AREA...SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ADVECT THE MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN
UT AND ARIZONA NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO NOTABLE IS A WAVE FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND
THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION AND LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS SUCH HAVE INTRODUCED A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN UT SUNDAY WHILE
INCREASING THE SOUTH BY 10 PERCENT OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z MONDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERS ITSELF
OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATE SUNDAY...THEN THE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER
THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER FOR MONDAY. FOLLOWING THE RETURN OF
MOISTURE TO NORTHERN UTAH ON SUNDAY...THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE AREA FOR MONDAY AS WELL...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND AN INCH.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFTING OVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY SHOULD ALSO
HELP TO CREATE A HOT DAY TO START THE WORK WEEK.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SET UP THE
HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA...LEAVING MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA IN A WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS HIGH.
THIS PATTERN SLOWLY DRIES THE AIRMASS...WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING EASTWARD INTO COLORADO. BECAUSE OF THIS DRIER AND LESS ACTIVE
PATTERN...HAVE KEPT MENTIONABLE POPS MOSTLY TIED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS UNDER THIS RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE SLC TERMINAL BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z
TODAY...WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS BEING THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY...LIKELY BETWEEN
15Z AND 17Z. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF
OF UTAH TODAY...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ISOLATED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF UTAH. IN
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...WITH SOME OF THESE
STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS...AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR NEW
FIRE STARTS. THERE IS GENERALLY ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN AT ANY GIVEN SPOT IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH.

GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE AGAIN FRIDAY. WINDS WILL FINALLY LIGHTEN OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REST OF THE STATE
SUNDAY AND AND MONDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 241016
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
416 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF UTAH THIS EVENING.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THIS MOISTURE OUT OF NORTHERN UTAH
THURSDAY WHILE IT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z MONDAY)...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...SANDWICHED
BETWEEN A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES BACK INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND AN UPPER LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A PLUME OF
MOISTURE WITHIN THIS FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST
QUARTER OF UTAH THIS MORNING. THE ENTRANCE REGION TO A 90KT JET
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH IS HELPING TO
MAINTAIN WEAK CONVECTION ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
DUGWAY-ALPINE SOUTH AND EASTWARD...WHILE NORTH OF THIS AREA DRIER
AIR ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS SPREAD ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST UT. COULD STILL SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SPILL OVER
INTO PORTIONS OF SALT LAKE COUNTY FOR A TIME EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THIS FRONT AND ATTENDANT DRYING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH ANY LINGERING CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING CONFINED TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT 700MB TEMPS COOL 4-5C...WHICH SHOULD
KNOCK MAX TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ALONG THE
WASATCH FRONT.

AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW RACES EASTWARD TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT...A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN UT
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...AND EVEN
INCREASES GRADUALLY WITH TIME...ACROSS SOUTHERN UT MAINTAINING A
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LITTLE VARIATION IN DAILY
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MAX
TEMPS RUNNING NEAR CLIMO...WHILE TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY OVER
THE SOUTH WITH THE SLOW INFLUX OF MOISTURE.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND WITH THE AXIS REMAINING EAST OF THE
AREA...SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ADVECT THE MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN
UT AND ARIZONA NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO NOTABLE IS A WAVE FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND
THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION AND LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS SUCH HAVE INTRODUCED A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN UT SUNDAY WHILE
INCREASING THE SOUTH BY 10 PERCENT OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z MONDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERS ITSELF
OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATE SUNDAY...THEN THE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER
THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER FOR MONDAY. FOLLOWING THE RETURN OF
MOISTURE TO NORTHERN UTAH ON SUNDAY...THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE AREA FOR MONDAY AS WELL...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND AN INCH.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFTING OVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY SHOULD ALSO
HELP TO CREATE A HOT DAY TO START THE WORK WEEK.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SET UP THE
HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA...LEAVING MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA IN A WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS HIGH.
THIS PATTERN SLOWLY DRIES THE AIRMASS...WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING EASTWARD INTO COLORADO. BECAUSE OF THIS DRIER AND LESS ACTIVE
PATTERN...HAVE KEPT MENTIONABLE POPS MOSTLY TIED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS UNDER THIS RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE SLC TERMINAL BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z
TODAY...WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS BEING THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY...LIKELY BETWEEN
15Z AND 17Z. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF
OF UTAH TODAY...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ISOLATED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF UTAH. IN
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...WITH SOME OF THESE
STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS...AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR NEW
FIRE STARTS. THERE IS GENERALLY ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN AT ANY GIVEN SPOT IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH.

GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE AGAIN FRIDAY. WINDS WILL FINALLY LIGHTEN OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REST OF THE STATE
SUNDAY AND AND MONDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 241016
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
416 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF UTAH THIS EVENING.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THIS MOISTURE OUT OF NORTHERN UTAH
THURSDAY WHILE IT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z MONDAY)...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...SANDWICHED
BETWEEN A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES BACK INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND AN UPPER LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A PLUME OF
MOISTURE WITHIN THIS FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST
QUARTER OF UTAH THIS MORNING. THE ENTRANCE REGION TO A 90KT JET
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH IS HELPING TO
MAINTAIN WEAK CONVECTION ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
DUGWAY-ALPINE SOUTH AND EASTWARD...WHILE NORTH OF THIS AREA DRIER
AIR ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS SPREAD ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST UT. COULD STILL SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SPILL OVER
INTO PORTIONS OF SALT LAKE COUNTY FOR A TIME EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THIS FRONT AND ATTENDANT DRYING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH ANY LINGERING CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING CONFINED TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT 700MB TEMPS COOL 4-5C...WHICH SHOULD
KNOCK MAX TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ALONG THE
WASATCH FRONT.

AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW RACES EASTWARD TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT...A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN UT
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...AND EVEN
INCREASES GRADUALLY WITH TIME...ACROSS SOUTHERN UT MAINTAINING A
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LITTLE VARIATION IN DAILY
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MAX
TEMPS RUNNING NEAR CLIMO...WHILE TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY OVER
THE SOUTH WITH THE SLOW INFLUX OF MOISTURE.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND WITH THE AXIS REMAINING EAST OF THE
AREA...SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ADVECT THE MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN
UT AND ARIZONA NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO NOTABLE IS A WAVE FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND
THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION AND LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS SUCH HAVE INTRODUCED A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN UT SUNDAY WHILE
INCREASING THE SOUTH BY 10 PERCENT OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z MONDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERS ITSELF
OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATE SUNDAY...THEN THE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER
THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER FOR MONDAY. FOLLOWING THE RETURN OF
MOISTURE TO NORTHERN UTAH ON SUNDAY...THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE AREA FOR MONDAY AS WELL...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND AN INCH.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFTING OVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY SHOULD ALSO
HELP TO CREATE A HOT DAY TO START THE WORK WEEK.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SET UP THE
HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA...LEAVING MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA IN A WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS HIGH.
THIS PATTERN SLOWLY DRIES THE AIRMASS...WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING EASTWARD INTO COLORADO. BECAUSE OF THIS DRIER AND LESS ACTIVE
PATTERN...HAVE KEPT MENTIONABLE POPS MOSTLY TIED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS UNDER THIS RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE SLC TERMINAL BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z
TODAY...WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS BEING THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY...LIKELY BETWEEN
15Z AND 17Z. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF
OF UTAH TODAY...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ISOLATED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF UTAH. IN
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...WITH SOME OF THESE
STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS...AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR NEW
FIRE STARTS. THERE IS GENERALLY ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN AT ANY GIVEN SPOT IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH.

GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE AGAIN FRIDAY. WINDS WILL FINALLY LIGHTEN OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REST OF THE STATE
SUNDAY AND AND MONDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 241016
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
416 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF UTAH THIS EVENING.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THIS MOISTURE OUT OF NORTHERN UTAH
THURSDAY WHILE IT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z MONDAY)...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...SANDWICHED
BETWEEN A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES BACK INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND AN UPPER LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A PLUME OF
MOISTURE WITHIN THIS FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST
QUARTER OF UTAH THIS MORNING. THE ENTRANCE REGION TO A 90KT JET
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH IS HELPING TO
MAINTAIN WEAK CONVECTION ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
DUGWAY-ALPINE SOUTH AND EASTWARD...WHILE NORTH OF THIS AREA DRIER
AIR ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS SPREAD ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST UT. COULD STILL SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SPILL OVER
INTO PORTIONS OF SALT LAKE COUNTY FOR A TIME EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THIS FRONT AND ATTENDANT DRYING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH ANY LINGERING CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING CONFINED TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT 700MB TEMPS COOL 4-5C...WHICH SHOULD
KNOCK MAX TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ALONG THE
WASATCH FRONT.

AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW RACES EASTWARD TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT...A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN UT
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...AND EVEN
INCREASES GRADUALLY WITH TIME...ACROSS SOUTHERN UT MAINTAINING A
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LITTLE VARIATION IN DAILY
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MAX
TEMPS RUNNING NEAR CLIMO...WHILE TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY OVER
THE SOUTH WITH THE SLOW INFLUX OF MOISTURE.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND WITH THE AXIS REMAINING EAST OF THE
AREA...SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ADVECT THE MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN
UT AND ARIZONA NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO NOTABLE IS A WAVE FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND
THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION AND LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS SUCH HAVE INTRODUCED A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN UT SUNDAY WHILE
INCREASING THE SOUTH BY 10 PERCENT OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z MONDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERS ITSELF
OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATE SUNDAY...THEN THE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER
THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER FOR MONDAY. FOLLOWING THE RETURN OF
MOISTURE TO NORTHERN UTAH ON SUNDAY...THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE AREA FOR MONDAY AS WELL...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND AN INCH.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFTING OVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY SHOULD ALSO
HELP TO CREATE A HOT DAY TO START THE WORK WEEK.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SET UP THE
HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA...LEAVING MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA IN A WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS HIGH.
THIS PATTERN SLOWLY DRIES THE AIRMASS...WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING EASTWARD INTO COLORADO. BECAUSE OF THIS DRIER AND LESS ACTIVE
PATTERN...HAVE KEPT MENTIONABLE POPS MOSTLY TIED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS UNDER THIS RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE SLC TERMINAL BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z
TODAY...WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS BEING THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY...LIKELY BETWEEN
15Z AND 17Z. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF
OF UTAH TODAY...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ISOLATED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF UTAH. IN
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...WITH SOME OF THESE
STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS...AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR NEW
FIRE STARTS. THERE IS GENERALLY ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN AT ANY GIVEN SPOT IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH.

GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE AGAIN FRIDAY. WINDS WILL FINALLY LIGHTEN OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REST OF THE STATE
SUNDAY AND AND MONDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 240352
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
952 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF UTAH THIS EVENING.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THIS MOISTURE OUT OF NORTHERN UTAH
THURSDAY WHILE IT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF
APPROX I-15 THIS EVE. CONVECTION WAS ACTIVE TODAY OVER THE MTNS
NEWD INTO THE UINTA BASIN. WEAK CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED INTO THIS
EVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND IS ALSO FILLING IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND ERN VALLEYS WHERE IT SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT.

ENOUGH MOISTURE DID MAKE IT INTO THE NWRN CWA TO SET OFF A ROUND
OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY. THE BULK OF THIS IS
MOVING OUT OF THE NRN CWA AT THIS TIME BUT ADDITIONAL WEAK CELLS
COULD STILL FORM OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES.

THE COLD PACNW TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER THRU THE NRN ROCKIES THRU FRI AND SENDS A DRY COLD
FRONT THRU NRN UT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS FRONT AND THE
DRIER MORE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND IT SHOULD SWEEP THE MOISTURE OUT
OF NRN UT BY TOMORROW AFTN WHILE IT STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EAST. NERN UT DRIES SOMEWHAT FRI WITH THE MOISTURE
BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE E-W ACROSS THE CWA BY SAT.

TEMPS SHOULD COOL ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH TOMORROW
THEN REMAIN SIMILAR FRI WHILE THE SOUTH COOLS A LITTLE DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUDS AND MOISTURE.

UPDATED FORECASTS EARLIER TO SHIFT POPS NWD A LITTLE AND ADD
MENTION OF DRY TSTMS TO THE NW DESERTS. UPDATED AGAIN TO SHIFT
POPS FURTHER NORTH AND REDUCE COVERAGE OVER THE NERN AND CENTRAL
MTNS TO ISOLATED. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THAT PASSING
SHOWERS COULD CREATE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS THE AIRFIELD THRU
ABOUT 15Z TOMORROW.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ478-488-489-
     492-493-495-496.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 240352
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
952 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF UTAH THIS EVENING.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THIS MOISTURE OUT OF NORTHERN UTAH
THURSDAY WHILE IT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF
APPROX I-15 THIS EVE. CONVECTION WAS ACTIVE TODAY OVER THE MTNS
NEWD INTO THE UINTA BASIN. WEAK CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED INTO THIS
EVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND IS ALSO FILLING IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND ERN VALLEYS WHERE IT SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT.

ENOUGH MOISTURE DID MAKE IT INTO THE NWRN CWA TO SET OFF A ROUND
OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY. THE BULK OF THIS IS
MOVING OUT OF THE NRN CWA AT THIS TIME BUT ADDITIONAL WEAK CELLS
COULD STILL FORM OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES.

THE COLD PACNW TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER THRU THE NRN ROCKIES THRU FRI AND SENDS A DRY COLD
FRONT THRU NRN UT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS FRONT AND THE
DRIER MORE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND IT SHOULD SWEEP THE MOISTURE OUT
OF NRN UT BY TOMORROW AFTN WHILE IT STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EAST. NERN UT DRIES SOMEWHAT FRI WITH THE MOISTURE
BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE E-W ACROSS THE CWA BY SAT.

TEMPS SHOULD COOL ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH TOMORROW
THEN REMAIN SIMILAR FRI WHILE THE SOUTH COOLS A LITTLE DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUDS AND MOISTURE.

UPDATED FORECASTS EARLIER TO SHIFT POPS NWD A LITTLE AND ADD
MENTION OF DRY TSTMS TO THE NW DESERTS. UPDATED AGAIN TO SHIFT
POPS FURTHER NORTH AND REDUCE COVERAGE OVER THE NERN AND CENTRAL
MTNS TO ISOLATED. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THAT PASSING
SHOWERS COULD CREATE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS THE AIRFIELD THRU
ABOUT 15Z TOMORROW.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ478-488-489-
     492-493-495-496.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 240352
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
952 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF UTAH THIS EVENING.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THIS MOISTURE OUT OF NORTHERN UTAH
THURSDAY WHILE IT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF
APPROX I-15 THIS EVE. CONVECTION WAS ACTIVE TODAY OVER THE MTNS
NEWD INTO THE UINTA BASIN. WEAK CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED INTO THIS
EVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND IS ALSO FILLING IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND ERN VALLEYS WHERE IT SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT.

ENOUGH MOISTURE DID MAKE IT INTO THE NWRN CWA TO SET OFF A ROUND
OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY. THE BULK OF THIS IS
MOVING OUT OF THE NRN CWA AT THIS TIME BUT ADDITIONAL WEAK CELLS
COULD STILL FORM OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES.

THE COLD PACNW TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER THRU THE NRN ROCKIES THRU FRI AND SENDS A DRY COLD
FRONT THRU NRN UT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS FRONT AND THE
DRIER MORE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND IT SHOULD SWEEP THE MOISTURE OUT
OF NRN UT BY TOMORROW AFTN WHILE IT STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EAST. NERN UT DRIES SOMEWHAT FRI WITH THE MOISTURE
BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE E-W ACROSS THE CWA BY SAT.

TEMPS SHOULD COOL ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH TOMORROW
THEN REMAIN SIMILAR FRI WHILE THE SOUTH COOLS A LITTLE DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUDS AND MOISTURE.

UPDATED FORECASTS EARLIER TO SHIFT POPS NWD A LITTLE AND ADD
MENTION OF DRY TSTMS TO THE NW DESERTS. UPDATED AGAIN TO SHIFT
POPS FURTHER NORTH AND REDUCE COVERAGE OVER THE NERN AND CENTRAL
MTNS TO ISOLATED. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THAT PASSING
SHOWERS COULD CREATE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS THE AIRFIELD THRU
ABOUT 15Z TOMORROW.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ478-488-489-
     492-493-495-496.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 240352
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
952 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF UTAH THIS EVENING.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THIS MOISTURE OUT OF NORTHERN UTAH
THURSDAY WHILE IT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF
APPROX I-15 THIS EVE. CONVECTION WAS ACTIVE TODAY OVER THE MTNS
NEWD INTO THE UINTA BASIN. WEAK CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED INTO THIS
EVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND IS ALSO FILLING IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND ERN VALLEYS WHERE IT SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT.

ENOUGH MOISTURE DID MAKE IT INTO THE NWRN CWA TO SET OFF A ROUND
OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY. THE BULK OF THIS IS
MOVING OUT OF THE NRN CWA AT THIS TIME BUT ADDITIONAL WEAK CELLS
COULD STILL FORM OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES.

THE COLD PACNW TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER THRU THE NRN ROCKIES THRU FRI AND SENDS A DRY COLD
FRONT THRU NRN UT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS FRONT AND THE
DRIER MORE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND IT SHOULD SWEEP THE MOISTURE OUT
OF NRN UT BY TOMORROW AFTN WHILE IT STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EAST. NERN UT DRIES SOMEWHAT FRI WITH THE MOISTURE
BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE E-W ACROSS THE CWA BY SAT.

TEMPS SHOULD COOL ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH TOMORROW
THEN REMAIN SIMILAR FRI WHILE THE SOUTH COOLS A LITTLE DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUDS AND MOISTURE.

UPDATED FORECASTS EARLIER TO SHIFT POPS NWD A LITTLE AND ADD
MENTION OF DRY TSTMS TO THE NW DESERTS. UPDATED AGAIN TO SHIFT
POPS FURTHER NORTH AND REDUCE COVERAGE OVER THE NERN AND CENTRAL
MTNS TO ISOLATED. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THAT PASSING
SHOWERS COULD CREATE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS THE AIRFIELD THRU
ABOUT 15Z TOMORROW.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ478-488-489-
     492-493-495-496.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 232148
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
348 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH WILL BRING A DRY COLD FRONT
INTO NORTHERN UTAH TOMORROW. OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
UTAH...MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BEFORE A SLOW DRYING TREND BEGINS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHWEST FLOW IS DRAWING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE GRADIENT IS ORIENTED
NE/SW WITH PWS AROUND 1.0 INCH ON THE SOUTH SIDE AND MORE LIKE 0.5
TO 0.6 INCH ON THE NORTH SIDE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ACROSS THE STATE...PARTICULARLY
OVER NORTHERN UTAH WHERE SEVERAL WASATCH FRONT LOCATIONS HAVE SEEM
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 100F. OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
2-3F ABOVE CLIMO OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AND IN EXCESS OF 5F ABOVE
THOSE VALUES OVER NORTHERN UTAH.

THE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST WILL MOVE INTO IDAHO AND MONTANA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE A DRY COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY FRIDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
PASSING TROUGH WILL ALSO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE
REGION...TURNING THE FLOW ALOFT MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL CHANGE
THE ORIENTATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS OVER THE STATE TO MORE OF AN
EAST TO WEST DIRECTION AND MOVE SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACK SOUTH OF
THE AREA...RESULTING IN REDUCED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

GLOBAL MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL REBOUND OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING FAIRLY LIGHT DURING THIS
TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH MOISTURE LINGERING
OVER SOUTHERN UTAH ON SATURDAY. THE FLOW MAY DEVELOP A BIT OF A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT FOR SUNDAY...ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD THOUGH PWS WILL BE DECREASING OVERALL. THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE DETAILS OF
MOISTURE TRENDS. GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE BULLISH WITH BRINGING
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA COMPARED TO THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AIRPORT PROPERTY ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TERMINAL BY 23Z...WITH WINDS RETURNING TO SOUTH AFTER 02-03Z.
HOWEVER...A 10 PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS THAT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL NOT
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE TERMINAL TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER THREATS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ARE
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN UTAH AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH. WINDS HAVE
REACHED CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH...CREATING HAZARDOUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL UTAH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UTAH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN...AS MOISTURE IS QUITE DEEP.
HOWEVER..ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL UTAH...DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE DRY LOWER LEVELS. THOUGH SOME STORMS MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY WETTING RAIN...THERE IS CONCERN FOR NEW FIRE
STARTS.

A WEAK...DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT AND
MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL UTAH BY EARLY EVENING. THIS
FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND COOL TEMPERATURES
BY A FEW DEGREES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
UTAH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. ELEVATED WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER CENTRAL
UTAH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING A
WARMING...DRYING TREND AND DECREASING WINDS. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
THAT MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO UTAH FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ478-488-489-
     492-493-495-496.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...HOSENFELD
AVIATION...CHENG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 232148
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
348 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH WILL BRING A DRY COLD FRONT
INTO NORTHERN UTAH TOMORROW. OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
UTAH...MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BEFORE A SLOW DRYING TREND BEGINS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHWEST FLOW IS DRAWING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE GRADIENT IS ORIENTED
NE/SW WITH PWS AROUND 1.0 INCH ON THE SOUTH SIDE AND MORE LIKE 0.5
TO 0.6 INCH ON THE NORTH SIDE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ACROSS THE STATE...PARTICULARLY
OVER NORTHERN UTAH WHERE SEVERAL WASATCH FRONT LOCATIONS HAVE SEEM
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 100F. OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
2-3F ABOVE CLIMO OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AND IN EXCESS OF 5F ABOVE
THOSE VALUES OVER NORTHERN UTAH.

THE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST WILL MOVE INTO IDAHO AND MONTANA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE A DRY COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY FRIDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
PASSING TROUGH WILL ALSO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE
REGION...TURNING THE FLOW ALOFT MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL CHANGE
THE ORIENTATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS OVER THE STATE TO MORE OF AN
EAST TO WEST DIRECTION AND MOVE SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACK SOUTH OF
THE AREA...RESULTING IN REDUCED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

GLOBAL MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL REBOUND OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING FAIRLY LIGHT DURING THIS
TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH MOISTURE LINGERING
OVER SOUTHERN UTAH ON SATURDAY. THE FLOW MAY DEVELOP A BIT OF A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT FOR SUNDAY...ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD THOUGH PWS WILL BE DECREASING OVERALL. THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE DETAILS OF
MOISTURE TRENDS. GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE BULLISH WITH BRINGING
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA COMPARED TO THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AIRPORT PROPERTY ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TERMINAL BY 23Z...WITH WINDS RETURNING TO SOUTH AFTER 02-03Z.
HOWEVER...A 10 PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS THAT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL NOT
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE TERMINAL TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER THREATS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ARE
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN UTAH AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH. WINDS HAVE
REACHED CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH...CREATING HAZARDOUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL UTAH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UTAH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN...AS MOISTURE IS QUITE DEEP.
HOWEVER..ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL UTAH...DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE DRY LOWER LEVELS. THOUGH SOME STORMS MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY WETTING RAIN...THERE IS CONCERN FOR NEW FIRE
STARTS.

A WEAK...DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT AND
MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL UTAH BY EARLY EVENING. THIS
FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND COOL TEMPERATURES
BY A FEW DEGREES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
UTAH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. ELEVATED WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER CENTRAL
UTAH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING A
WARMING...DRYING TREND AND DECREASING WINDS. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
THAT MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO UTAH FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ478-488-489-
     492-493-495-496.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...HOSENFELD
AVIATION...CHENG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 231625
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1025 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY. DRIER AIR
WILL RETURN TO NORTHERN UTAH ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE THE
MORE MOIST AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.



&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF A RIDGE CENTERED OVER COLORADO. THIS
FLOW IS DRAWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. SATELLITE INDICATES
PWS OF 1.0 INCH OR GREATER ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST UTAH AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHEAST UTAH THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS LESS WELL-DEFINED THAN MODELS
WERE INDICATING YESTERDAY BUT SHOULD STILL HELP WITH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. CLOUD COVER IS NOT CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD SO DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

DRY LIGHTNING AND MICROBURST WINDS ARE ALSO A CONCERN...PRIMARILY
ALONG THE MOISTURE GRADIENT CURRENTLY SITTING NE/SW OVER THE
STATE. THESE CONDITIONS COULD CAUSE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ALONG
AND BEHIND THAT MOISTURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM
TODAY...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN UTAH WHERE PORTIONS OF THE
WASATCH FRONT WHERE SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE MAXES IN EXCESS OF
100F.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO PUSH A DRY FRONT INTO
NORTHERN UTAH TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS OVER THE NORTH AS SOUTHERN UTAH REMAINS
SIMILAR TO TODAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH WILL ALSO ACT TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND MOVE THE FLOW ALOFT IN A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION...CHANGING THE ORIENTATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS AND
PUSHING MOISTURE BACK SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO UPDATES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER THAN USUAL...BETWEEN 20Z AND
22Z...BUT THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THIS WILL OCCUR LATER THAN
EXPECTED OR NOT AT ALL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY ARE GUSTY
WINDS/LOW RH ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL UTAH. MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ACROSS SOUTHERN
UTAH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE MOISTURE...DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...AND LIGHTNING MAY CAUSE NEW STARTS WHERE FUELS
ARE CURED. ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UTAH WHERE THE MOISTURE IS
DEEPEST...STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WETTING RAIN. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AND ERRATIC IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN UTAH WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THESE GUSTY WINDS MAY EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 492.

A WEAK...DRY FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT AND INTO
CENTRAL UTAH BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS
FRONT WILL PUSH MOISTURE SOUTHWARD...AND SO STORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN UTAH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THIS WEEKEND OVER THE STATE...BRINGING A
BRIEF WARMING...DRYING TREND AND GENERALLY DECREASING WINDS.

&&

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ488-489-492-
     493-495-496.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ478.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...HOSENFELD

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 231625
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1025 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY. DRIER AIR
WILL RETURN TO NORTHERN UTAH ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE THE
MORE MOIST AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.



&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF A RIDGE CENTERED OVER COLORADO. THIS
FLOW IS DRAWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. SATELLITE INDICATES
PWS OF 1.0 INCH OR GREATER ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST UTAH AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHEAST UTAH THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS LESS WELL-DEFINED THAN MODELS
WERE INDICATING YESTERDAY BUT SHOULD STILL HELP WITH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. CLOUD COVER IS NOT CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD SO DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

DRY LIGHTNING AND MICROBURST WINDS ARE ALSO A CONCERN...PRIMARILY
ALONG THE MOISTURE GRADIENT CURRENTLY SITTING NE/SW OVER THE
STATE. THESE CONDITIONS COULD CAUSE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ALONG
AND BEHIND THAT MOISTURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM
TODAY...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN UTAH WHERE PORTIONS OF THE
WASATCH FRONT WHERE SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE MAXES IN EXCESS OF
100F.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO PUSH A DRY FRONT INTO
NORTHERN UTAH TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS OVER THE NORTH AS SOUTHERN UTAH REMAINS
SIMILAR TO TODAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH WILL ALSO ACT TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND MOVE THE FLOW ALOFT IN A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION...CHANGING THE ORIENTATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS AND
PUSHING MOISTURE BACK SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO UPDATES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER THAN USUAL...BETWEEN 20Z AND
22Z...BUT THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THIS WILL OCCUR LATER THAN
EXPECTED OR NOT AT ALL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY ARE GUSTY
WINDS/LOW RH ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL UTAH. MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ACROSS SOUTHERN
UTAH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE MOISTURE...DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...AND LIGHTNING MAY CAUSE NEW STARTS WHERE FUELS
ARE CURED. ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UTAH WHERE THE MOISTURE IS
DEEPEST...STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WETTING RAIN. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AND ERRATIC IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN UTAH WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THESE GUSTY WINDS MAY EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 492.

A WEAK...DRY FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT AND INTO
CENTRAL UTAH BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS
FRONT WILL PUSH MOISTURE SOUTHWARD...AND SO STORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN UTAH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THIS WEEKEND OVER THE STATE...BRINGING A
BRIEF WARMING...DRYING TREND AND GENERALLY DECREASING WINDS.

&&

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ488-489-492-
     493-495-496.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ478.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...HOSENFELD

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 231102
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
502 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY. DRIER AIR
WILL RETURN TO NORTHERN UTAH ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE THE
MOISTER AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY)...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS CENTERED OVER COLORADO THIS MORNING...KEEPING MUCH OF UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...GOOD WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE SECOND 100 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR IN SALT LAKE CITY. IN
SOUTHERN UTAH...MID- LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE ARIZONA THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
LIGHT SHOWERS ALREADY MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF UTAH AS OF 10Z.

THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE BEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF UTAH. THE INITIAL
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL FAIRLY DRY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.2 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED BY 00Z THURSDAY. GUSTY SYNOPTIC-SCALE SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN
TODAY...AND COMBINED WITH THE DRY LIGHTNING WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER DAY.

A PACIFIC TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRUSH BY THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY...PUSHING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA. MOISTER AIR SHOULD STILL LINGER IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...SO
HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO THOSE AREAS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SOMEWHAT INCREASED MOISTURE AND HOT TEMPERATURES BOTH LOOK TO
RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE RIDGE
QUICKLY REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z SUNDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... BRINGING A
WARMING...DRYING TREND AND A DECREASE IN WINDS. TEMPERATURES PEAK IN
THE NORTH BEFORE A SHALLOW COLD FRONT OOZES INTO THE STATE LATE
MONDAY EVENING...USHERING IN A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO FUEL AFTERNOON
STORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING AFTER 16Z AND BECOMING
GUSTY AFTER NOON. WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY SWITCH TO NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS THAT THIS SWITCH
WILL NOT OCCUR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN FOR MUCH OF WESTERN UTAH TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE INTO THE STATE HAS ADDED THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS OF DRY
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST UTAH.

GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN UTAH. THESE WINDS...COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY...WILL
COMBINE TO CREATE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND SO THE RED
FLAG WARNING FOR WINDS AND LOW RH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR ZONE 478...THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH.

MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
STATE TODAY WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UTAH WHERE THE
MOISTURE IS DEEPEST...MOST STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WETTING
RAIN. HOWEVER...ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
UTAH...MOISTURE WILL BE LARGELY CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING...THUS WARRANTING A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL UTAH.

A SHALLOW FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST UTAH THURSDAY
MORNING...ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL UTAH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY
IMPACT OF THIS WEAK FEATURE WILL BE A SHIFT OF SURFACE WINDS TO THE
NORTH WITH THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     UTZ488-489-492-493-495-496.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ478.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHOENING
LONG TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 231102
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
502 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY. DRIER AIR
WILL RETURN TO NORTHERN UTAH ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE THE
MOISTER AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY)...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS CENTERED OVER COLORADO THIS MORNING...KEEPING MUCH OF UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...GOOD WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE SECOND 100 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR IN SALT LAKE CITY. IN
SOUTHERN UTAH...MID- LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE ARIZONA THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
LIGHT SHOWERS ALREADY MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF UTAH AS OF 10Z.

THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE BEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF UTAH. THE INITIAL
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL FAIRLY DRY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.2 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED BY 00Z THURSDAY. GUSTY SYNOPTIC-SCALE SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN
TODAY...AND COMBINED WITH THE DRY LIGHTNING WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER DAY.

A PACIFIC TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRUSH BY THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY...PUSHING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA. MOISTER AIR SHOULD STILL LINGER IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...SO
HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO THOSE AREAS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SOMEWHAT INCREASED MOISTURE AND HOT TEMPERATURES BOTH LOOK TO
RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE RIDGE
QUICKLY REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z SUNDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... BRINGING A
WARMING...DRYING TREND AND A DECREASE IN WINDS. TEMPERATURES PEAK IN
THE NORTH BEFORE A SHALLOW COLD FRONT OOZES INTO THE STATE LATE
MONDAY EVENING...USHERING IN A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO FUEL AFTERNOON
STORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING AFTER 16Z AND BECOMING
GUSTY AFTER NOON. WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY SWITCH TO NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS THAT THIS SWITCH
WILL NOT OCCUR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN FOR MUCH OF WESTERN UTAH TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE INTO THE STATE HAS ADDED THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS OF DRY
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST UTAH.

GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN UTAH. THESE WINDS...COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY...WILL
COMBINE TO CREATE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND SO THE RED
FLAG WARNING FOR WINDS AND LOW RH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR ZONE 478...THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH.

MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
STATE TODAY WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UTAH WHERE THE
MOISTURE IS DEEPEST...MOST STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WETTING
RAIN. HOWEVER...ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
UTAH...MOISTURE WILL BE LARGELY CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING...THUS WARRANTING A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL UTAH.

A SHALLOW FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST UTAH THURSDAY
MORNING...ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL UTAH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY
IMPACT OF THIS WEAK FEATURE WILL BE A SHIFT OF SURFACE WINDS TO THE
NORTH WITH THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     UTZ488-489-492-493-495-496.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ478.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHOENING
LONG TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 231102
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
502 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY. DRIER AIR
WILL RETURN TO NORTHERN UTAH ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE THE
MOISTER AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY)...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS CENTERED OVER COLORADO THIS MORNING...KEEPING MUCH OF UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...GOOD WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE SECOND 100 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR IN SALT LAKE CITY. IN
SOUTHERN UTAH...MID- LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE ARIZONA THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
LIGHT SHOWERS ALREADY MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF UTAH AS OF 10Z.

THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE BEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF UTAH. THE INITIAL
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL FAIRLY DRY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.2 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED BY 00Z THURSDAY. GUSTY SYNOPTIC-SCALE SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN
TODAY...AND COMBINED WITH THE DRY LIGHTNING WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER DAY.

A PACIFIC TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRUSH BY THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY...PUSHING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA. MOISTER AIR SHOULD STILL LINGER IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...SO
HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO THOSE AREAS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SOMEWHAT INCREASED MOISTURE AND HOT TEMPERATURES BOTH LOOK TO
RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE RIDGE
QUICKLY REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z SUNDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... BRINGING A
WARMING...DRYING TREND AND A DECREASE IN WINDS. TEMPERATURES PEAK IN
THE NORTH BEFORE A SHALLOW COLD FRONT OOZES INTO THE STATE LATE
MONDAY EVENING...USHERING IN A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO FUEL AFTERNOON
STORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING AFTER 16Z AND BECOMING
GUSTY AFTER NOON. WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY SWITCH TO NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS THAT THIS SWITCH
WILL NOT OCCUR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN FOR MUCH OF WESTERN UTAH TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE INTO THE STATE HAS ADDED THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS OF DRY
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST UTAH.

GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN UTAH. THESE WINDS...COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY...WILL
COMBINE TO CREATE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND SO THE RED
FLAG WARNING FOR WINDS AND LOW RH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR ZONE 478...THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH.

MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
STATE TODAY WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UTAH WHERE THE
MOISTURE IS DEEPEST...MOST STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WETTING
RAIN. HOWEVER...ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
UTAH...MOISTURE WILL BE LARGELY CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING...THUS WARRANTING A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL UTAH.

A SHALLOW FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST UTAH THURSDAY
MORNING...ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL UTAH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY
IMPACT OF THIS WEAK FEATURE WILL BE A SHIFT OF SURFACE WINDS TO THE
NORTH WITH THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     UTZ488-489-492-493-495-496.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ478.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHOENING
LONG TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 231102
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
502 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY. DRIER AIR
WILL RETURN TO NORTHERN UTAH ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE THE
MOISTER AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY)...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS CENTERED OVER COLORADO THIS MORNING...KEEPING MUCH OF UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...GOOD WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE SECOND 100 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR IN SALT LAKE CITY. IN
SOUTHERN UTAH...MID- LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE ARIZONA THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
LIGHT SHOWERS ALREADY MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF UTAH AS OF 10Z.

THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE BEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF UTAH. THE INITIAL
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL FAIRLY DRY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.2 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED BY 00Z THURSDAY. GUSTY SYNOPTIC-SCALE SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN
TODAY...AND COMBINED WITH THE DRY LIGHTNING WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER DAY.

A PACIFIC TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRUSH BY THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY...PUSHING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA. MOISTER AIR SHOULD STILL LINGER IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...SO
HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO THOSE AREAS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SOMEWHAT INCREASED MOISTURE AND HOT TEMPERATURES BOTH LOOK TO
RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE RIDGE
QUICKLY REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z SUNDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... BRINGING A
WARMING...DRYING TREND AND A DECREASE IN WINDS. TEMPERATURES PEAK IN
THE NORTH BEFORE A SHALLOW COLD FRONT OOZES INTO THE STATE LATE
MONDAY EVENING...USHERING IN A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO FUEL AFTERNOON
STORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING AFTER 16Z AND BECOMING
GUSTY AFTER NOON. WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY SWITCH TO NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS THAT THIS SWITCH
WILL NOT OCCUR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN FOR MUCH OF WESTERN UTAH TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE INTO THE STATE HAS ADDED THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS OF DRY
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST UTAH.

GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN UTAH. THESE WINDS...COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY...WILL
COMBINE TO CREATE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND SO THE RED
FLAG WARNING FOR WINDS AND LOW RH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR ZONE 478...THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH.

MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
STATE TODAY WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UTAH WHERE THE
MOISTURE IS DEEPEST...MOST STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WETTING
RAIN. HOWEVER...ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
UTAH...MOISTURE WILL BE LARGELY CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING...THUS WARRANTING A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL UTAH.

A SHALLOW FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST UTAH THURSDAY
MORNING...ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL UTAH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY
IMPACT OF THIS WEAK FEATURE WILL BE A SHIFT OF SURFACE WINDS TO THE
NORTH WITH THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     UTZ488-489-492-493-495-496.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ478.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHOENING
LONG TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 230341
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
941 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY THEN LINGER OVER SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
NORTH WILL DRY BACK OUT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE SURGE COMING
UP FROM THE SOUTH HAVE REACHED SERN UT AND RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW
LIGHT ECHOES. HOWEVER THE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE 30S ACROSS
THIS AREA SO SUSPECT LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND AT
THIS TIME. THIS COULD CHANGE LATER TONIGHT AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS
WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN LATER TONIGHT THRU WED. THIS
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO ALL BUT THE
FAR NWRN CWA BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
COULD BE DRY WITH GUSTY WINDS AT FIRST BUT THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD
MOISTEN UP THRU THE DAY.

THE HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST IS STILL FORECAST TO FLATTEN THU INTO
FRI AS A TROF PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THIS SENDS A DRIER WEST-SWLY
FLOW INTO THE NRN CWA BUT MOISTURE WILL NOT CLEAR FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN OF DRY NORTH AND MOIST SOUTH STAYS MORE OR
LESS IN PLACE THRU THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH CENTER MIGRATES WWD
ACROSS AZ AND EVENTUALLY OVER NRN UT BY SUN. THIS WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION GOING OVER THE SOUTH AND IT WILL BE HOT AND
DRY OVER THE NORTH.

UPDATED EARLIER TO RAISE POPS FOR SERN UT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY AROUND 04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE ARE TWO MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST IS GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...AND THE SECOND IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

AS FAR AS WINDS...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN UTAH. THESE
WINDS...COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY...WILL COMBINE TO CREATE
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND SO THE RED FLAG WARNING
FOR WINDS AND LOW RH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING
FOR ZONE 478...THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH.

AS FAR AS LIGHTNING GOES...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL UTAH
THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UTAH WHERE THE MOISTURE IS
DEEPEST...MOST STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WETTING RAIN.
HOWEVER...ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH NORTHWARD
THROUGH WESTERN UTAH TO ABOUT I-80...MOISTURE WILL BE LARGELY
CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR
DRY LIGHTNING. DRY LIGHTNING IS CHALLENGING TO FORECAST...AND SO
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT MOST OF THE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL UTAH WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY WETTING RAIN.
HOWEVER...FEEL THAT THE THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING AND IT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL UTAH AND HAVE EXPANDED THIS INTO
THE NORTHWEST AS WELL TO COVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 478.

A SHALLOW FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST UTAH THURSDAY
MORNING...ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL UTAH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A
WEAK FRONT...AND THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SHIFT OF SURFACE WINDS
TO THE NORTH WITH THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS THAT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ488-489-
     492-493-495-496.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ478.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ492-495.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 230341
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
941 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY THEN LINGER OVER SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
NORTH WILL DRY BACK OUT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE SURGE COMING
UP FROM THE SOUTH HAVE REACHED SERN UT AND RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW
LIGHT ECHOES. HOWEVER THE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE 30S ACROSS
THIS AREA SO SUSPECT LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND AT
THIS TIME. THIS COULD CHANGE LATER TONIGHT AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS
WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN LATER TONIGHT THRU WED. THIS
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO ALL BUT THE
FAR NWRN CWA BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
COULD BE DRY WITH GUSTY WINDS AT FIRST BUT THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD
MOISTEN UP THRU THE DAY.

THE HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST IS STILL FORECAST TO FLATTEN THU INTO
FRI AS A TROF PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THIS SENDS A DRIER WEST-SWLY
FLOW INTO THE NRN CWA BUT MOISTURE WILL NOT CLEAR FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN OF DRY NORTH AND MOIST SOUTH STAYS MORE OR
LESS IN PLACE THRU THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH CENTER MIGRATES WWD
ACROSS AZ AND EVENTUALLY OVER NRN UT BY SUN. THIS WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION GOING OVER THE SOUTH AND IT WILL BE HOT AND
DRY OVER THE NORTH.

UPDATED EARLIER TO RAISE POPS FOR SERN UT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY AROUND 04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE ARE TWO MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST IS GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...AND THE SECOND IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

AS FAR AS WINDS...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN UTAH. THESE
WINDS...COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY...WILL COMBINE TO CREATE
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND SO THE RED FLAG WARNING
FOR WINDS AND LOW RH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING
FOR ZONE 478...THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH.

AS FAR AS LIGHTNING GOES...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL UTAH
THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UTAH WHERE THE MOISTURE IS
DEEPEST...MOST STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WETTING RAIN.
HOWEVER...ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH NORTHWARD
THROUGH WESTERN UTAH TO ABOUT I-80...MOISTURE WILL BE LARGELY
CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR
DRY LIGHTNING. DRY LIGHTNING IS CHALLENGING TO FORECAST...AND SO
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT MOST OF THE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL UTAH WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY WETTING RAIN.
HOWEVER...FEEL THAT THE THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING AND IT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL UTAH AND HAVE EXPANDED THIS INTO
THE NORTHWEST AS WELL TO COVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 478.

A SHALLOW FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST UTAH THURSDAY
MORNING...ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL UTAH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A
WEAK FRONT...AND THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SHIFT OF SURFACE WINDS
TO THE NORTH WITH THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS THAT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ488-489-
     492-493-495-496.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ478.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ492-495.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 230341
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
941 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY THEN LINGER OVER SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
NORTH WILL DRY BACK OUT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE SURGE COMING
UP FROM THE SOUTH HAVE REACHED SERN UT AND RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW
LIGHT ECHOES. HOWEVER THE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE 30S ACROSS
THIS AREA SO SUSPECT LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND AT
THIS TIME. THIS COULD CHANGE LATER TONIGHT AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS
WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN LATER TONIGHT THRU WED. THIS
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO ALL BUT THE
FAR NWRN CWA BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
COULD BE DRY WITH GUSTY WINDS AT FIRST BUT THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD
MOISTEN UP THRU THE DAY.

THE HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST IS STILL FORECAST TO FLATTEN THU INTO
FRI AS A TROF PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THIS SENDS A DRIER WEST-SWLY
FLOW INTO THE NRN CWA BUT MOISTURE WILL NOT CLEAR FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN OF DRY NORTH AND MOIST SOUTH STAYS MORE OR
LESS IN PLACE THRU THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH CENTER MIGRATES WWD
ACROSS AZ AND EVENTUALLY OVER NRN UT BY SUN. THIS WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION GOING OVER THE SOUTH AND IT WILL BE HOT AND
DRY OVER THE NORTH.

UPDATED EARLIER TO RAISE POPS FOR SERN UT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY AROUND 04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE ARE TWO MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST IS GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...AND THE SECOND IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

AS FAR AS WINDS...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN UTAH. THESE
WINDS...COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY...WILL COMBINE TO CREATE
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND SO THE RED FLAG WARNING
FOR WINDS AND LOW RH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING
FOR ZONE 478...THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH.

AS FAR AS LIGHTNING GOES...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL UTAH
THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UTAH WHERE THE MOISTURE IS
DEEPEST...MOST STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WETTING RAIN.
HOWEVER...ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH NORTHWARD
THROUGH WESTERN UTAH TO ABOUT I-80...MOISTURE WILL BE LARGELY
CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR
DRY LIGHTNING. DRY LIGHTNING IS CHALLENGING TO FORECAST...AND SO
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT MOST OF THE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL UTAH WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY WETTING RAIN.
HOWEVER...FEEL THAT THE THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING AND IT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL UTAH AND HAVE EXPANDED THIS INTO
THE NORTHWEST AS WELL TO COVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 478.

A SHALLOW FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST UTAH THURSDAY
MORNING...ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL UTAH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A
WEAK FRONT...AND THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SHIFT OF SURFACE WINDS
TO THE NORTH WITH THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS THAT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ488-489-
     492-493-495-496.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ478.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ492-495.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 230341
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
941 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY THEN LINGER OVER SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
NORTH WILL DRY BACK OUT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE SURGE COMING
UP FROM THE SOUTH HAVE REACHED SERN UT AND RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW
LIGHT ECHOES. HOWEVER THE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE 30S ACROSS
THIS AREA SO SUSPECT LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND AT
THIS TIME. THIS COULD CHANGE LATER TONIGHT AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS
WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN LATER TONIGHT THRU WED. THIS
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO ALL BUT THE
FAR NWRN CWA BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
COULD BE DRY WITH GUSTY WINDS AT FIRST BUT THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD
MOISTEN UP THRU THE DAY.

THE HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST IS STILL FORECAST TO FLATTEN THU INTO
FRI AS A TROF PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THIS SENDS A DRIER WEST-SWLY
FLOW INTO THE NRN CWA BUT MOISTURE WILL NOT CLEAR FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN OF DRY NORTH AND MOIST SOUTH STAYS MORE OR
LESS IN PLACE THRU THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH CENTER MIGRATES WWD
ACROSS AZ AND EVENTUALLY OVER NRN UT BY SUN. THIS WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION GOING OVER THE SOUTH AND IT WILL BE HOT AND
DRY OVER THE NORTH.

UPDATED EARLIER TO RAISE POPS FOR SERN UT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY AROUND 04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE ARE TWO MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST IS GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...AND THE SECOND IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

AS FAR AS WINDS...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN UTAH. THESE
WINDS...COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY...WILL COMBINE TO CREATE
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND SO THE RED FLAG WARNING
FOR WINDS AND LOW RH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING
FOR ZONE 478...THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH.

AS FAR AS LIGHTNING GOES...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL UTAH
THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UTAH WHERE THE MOISTURE IS
DEEPEST...MOST STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WETTING RAIN.
HOWEVER...ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH NORTHWARD
THROUGH WESTERN UTAH TO ABOUT I-80...MOISTURE WILL BE LARGELY
CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR
DRY LIGHTNING. DRY LIGHTNING IS CHALLENGING TO FORECAST...AND SO
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT MOST OF THE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL UTAH WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY WETTING RAIN.
HOWEVER...FEEL THAT THE THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING AND IT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL UTAH AND HAVE EXPANDED THIS INTO
THE NORTHWEST AS WELL TO COVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 478.

A SHALLOW FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST UTAH THURSDAY
MORNING...ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL UTAH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A
WEAK FRONT...AND THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SHIFT OF SURFACE WINDS
TO THE NORTH WITH THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS THAT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ488-489-
     492-493-495-496.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ478.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ492-495.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 230341
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
941 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY THEN LINGER OVER SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
NORTH WILL DRY BACK OUT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE SURGE COMING
UP FROM THE SOUTH HAVE REACHED SERN UT AND RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW
LIGHT ECHOES. HOWEVER THE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE 30S ACROSS
THIS AREA SO SUSPECT LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND AT
THIS TIME. THIS COULD CHANGE LATER TONIGHT AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS
WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN LATER TONIGHT THRU WED. THIS
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO ALL BUT THE
FAR NWRN CWA BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
COULD BE DRY WITH GUSTY WINDS AT FIRST BUT THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD
MOISTEN UP THRU THE DAY.

THE HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST IS STILL FORECAST TO FLATTEN THU INTO
FRI AS A TROF PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THIS SENDS A DRIER WEST-SWLY
FLOW INTO THE NRN CWA BUT MOISTURE WILL NOT CLEAR FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN OF DRY NORTH AND MOIST SOUTH STAYS MORE OR
LESS IN PLACE THRU THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH CENTER MIGRATES WWD
ACROSS AZ AND EVENTUALLY OVER NRN UT BY SUN. THIS WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION GOING OVER THE SOUTH AND IT WILL BE HOT AND
DRY OVER THE NORTH.

UPDATED EARLIER TO RAISE POPS FOR SERN UT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY AROUND 04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE ARE TWO MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST IS GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...AND THE SECOND IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

AS FAR AS WINDS...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN UTAH. THESE
WINDS...COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY...WILL COMBINE TO CREATE
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND SO THE RED FLAG WARNING
FOR WINDS AND LOW RH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING
FOR ZONE 478...THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH.

AS FAR AS LIGHTNING GOES...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL UTAH
THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UTAH WHERE THE MOISTURE IS
DEEPEST...MOST STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WETTING RAIN.
HOWEVER...ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH NORTHWARD
THROUGH WESTERN UTAH TO ABOUT I-80...MOISTURE WILL BE LARGELY
CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR
DRY LIGHTNING. DRY LIGHTNING IS CHALLENGING TO FORECAST...AND SO
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT MOST OF THE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL UTAH WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY WETTING RAIN.
HOWEVER...FEEL THAT THE THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING AND IT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL UTAH AND HAVE EXPANDED THIS INTO
THE NORTHWEST AS WELL TO COVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 478.

A SHALLOW FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST UTAH THURSDAY
MORNING...ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL UTAH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A
WEAK FRONT...AND THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SHIFT OF SURFACE WINDS
TO THE NORTH WITH THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS THAT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ488-489-
     492-493-495-496.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ478.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ492-495.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 230341
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
941 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY THEN LINGER OVER SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
NORTH WILL DRY BACK OUT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE SURGE COMING
UP FROM THE SOUTH HAVE REACHED SERN UT AND RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW
LIGHT ECHOES. HOWEVER THE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE 30S ACROSS
THIS AREA SO SUSPECT LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND AT
THIS TIME. THIS COULD CHANGE LATER TONIGHT AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS
WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN LATER TONIGHT THRU WED. THIS
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO ALL BUT THE
FAR NWRN CWA BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
COULD BE DRY WITH GUSTY WINDS AT FIRST BUT THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD
MOISTEN UP THRU THE DAY.

THE HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST IS STILL FORECAST TO FLATTEN THU INTO
FRI AS A TROF PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THIS SENDS A DRIER WEST-SWLY
FLOW INTO THE NRN CWA BUT MOISTURE WILL NOT CLEAR FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN OF DRY NORTH AND MOIST SOUTH STAYS MORE OR
LESS IN PLACE THRU THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH CENTER MIGRATES WWD
ACROSS AZ AND EVENTUALLY OVER NRN UT BY SUN. THIS WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION GOING OVER THE SOUTH AND IT WILL BE HOT AND
DRY OVER THE NORTH.

UPDATED EARLIER TO RAISE POPS FOR SERN UT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY AROUND 04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE ARE TWO MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST IS GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...AND THE SECOND IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

AS FAR AS WINDS...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN UTAH. THESE
WINDS...COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY...WILL COMBINE TO CREATE
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND SO THE RED FLAG WARNING
FOR WINDS AND LOW RH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING
FOR ZONE 478...THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH.

AS FAR AS LIGHTNING GOES...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL UTAH
THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UTAH WHERE THE MOISTURE IS
DEEPEST...MOST STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WETTING RAIN.
HOWEVER...ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH NORTHWARD
THROUGH WESTERN UTAH TO ABOUT I-80...MOISTURE WILL BE LARGELY
CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR
DRY LIGHTNING. DRY LIGHTNING IS CHALLENGING TO FORECAST...AND SO
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT MOST OF THE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL UTAH WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY WETTING RAIN.
HOWEVER...FEEL THAT THE THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING AND IT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL UTAH AND HAVE EXPANDED THIS INTO
THE NORTHWEST AS WELL TO COVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 478.

A SHALLOW FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST UTAH THURSDAY
MORNING...ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL UTAH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A
WEAK FRONT...AND THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SHIFT OF SURFACE WINDS
TO THE NORTH WITH THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS THAT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ488-489-
     492-493-495-496.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ478.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ492-495.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 230341
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
941 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY THEN LINGER OVER SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
NORTH WILL DRY BACK OUT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE SURGE COMING
UP FROM THE SOUTH HAVE REACHED SERN UT AND RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW
LIGHT ECHOES. HOWEVER THE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE 30S ACROSS
THIS AREA SO SUSPECT LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND AT
THIS TIME. THIS COULD CHANGE LATER TONIGHT AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS
WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN LATER TONIGHT THRU WED. THIS
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO ALL BUT THE
FAR NWRN CWA BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
COULD BE DRY WITH GUSTY WINDS AT FIRST BUT THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD
MOISTEN UP THRU THE DAY.

THE HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST IS STILL FORECAST TO FLATTEN THU INTO
FRI AS A TROF PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THIS SENDS A DRIER WEST-SWLY
FLOW INTO THE NRN CWA BUT MOISTURE WILL NOT CLEAR FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN OF DRY NORTH AND MOIST SOUTH STAYS MORE OR
LESS IN PLACE THRU THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH CENTER MIGRATES WWD
ACROSS AZ AND EVENTUALLY OVER NRN UT BY SUN. THIS WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION GOING OVER THE SOUTH AND IT WILL BE HOT AND
DRY OVER THE NORTH.

UPDATED EARLIER TO RAISE POPS FOR SERN UT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY AROUND 04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE ARE TWO MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST IS GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...AND THE SECOND IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

AS FAR AS WINDS...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN UTAH. THESE
WINDS...COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY...WILL COMBINE TO CREATE
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND SO THE RED FLAG WARNING
FOR WINDS AND LOW RH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING
FOR ZONE 478...THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH.

AS FAR AS LIGHTNING GOES...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL UTAH
THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UTAH WHERE THE MOISTURE IS
DEEPEST...MOST STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WETTING RAIN.
HOWEVER...ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH NORTHWARD
THROUGH WESTERN UTAH TO ABOUT I-80...MOISTURE WILL BE LARGELY
CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR
DRY LIGHTNING. DRY LIGHTNING IS CHALLENGING TO FORECAST...AND SO
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT MOST OF THE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL UTAH WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY WETTING RAIN.
HOWEVER...FEEL THAT THE THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING AND IT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL UTAH AND HAVE EXPANDED THIS INTO
THE NORTHWEST AS WELL TO COVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 478.

A SHALLOW FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST UTAH THURSDAY
MORNING...ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL UTAH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A
WEAK FRONT...AND THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SHIFT OF SURFACE WINDS
TO THE NORTH WITH THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS THAT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ488-489-
     492-493-495-496.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ478.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ492-495.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 230341
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
941 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY THEN LINGER OVER SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
NORTH WILL DRY BACK OUT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE SURGE COMING
UP FROM THE SOUTH HAVE REACHED SERN UT AND RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW
LIGHT ECHOES. HOWEVER THE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE 30S ACROSS
THIS AREA SO SUSPECT LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND AT
THIS TIME. THIS COULD CHANGE LATER TONIGHT AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS
WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN LATER TONIGHT THRU WED. THIS
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO ALL BUT THE
FAR NWRN CWA BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
COULD BE DRY WITH GUSTY WINDS AT FIRST BUT THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD
MOISTEN UP THRU THE DAY.

THE HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST IS STILL FORECAST TO FLATTEN THU INTO
FRI AS A TROF PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THIS SENDS A DRIER WEST-SWLY
FLOW INTO THE NRN CWA BUT MOISTURE WILL NOT CLEAR FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN OF DRY NORTH AND MOIST SOUTH STAYS MORE OR
LESS IN PLACE THRU THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH CENTER MIGRATES WWD
ACROSS AZ AND EVENTUALLY OVER NRN UT BY SUN. THIS WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION GOING OVER THE SOUTH AND IT WILL BE HOT AND
DRY OVER THE NORTH.

UPDATED EARLIER TO RAISE POPS FOR SERN UT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY AROUND 04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE ARE TWO MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST IS GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...AND THE SECOND IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

AS FAR AS WINDS...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN UTAH. THESE
WINDS...COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY...WILL COMBINE TO CREATE
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND SO THE RED FLAG WARNING
FOR WINDS AND LOW RH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING
FOR ZONE 478...THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH.

AS FAR AS LIGHTNING GOES...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL UTAH
THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UTAH WHERE THE MOISTURE IS
DEEPEST...MOST STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WETTING RAIN.
HOWEVER...ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH NORTHWARD
THROUGH WESTERN UTAH TO ABOUT I-80...MOISTURE WILL BE LARGELY
CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR
DRY LIGHTNING. DRY LIGHTNING IS CHALLENGING TO FORECAST...AND SO
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT MOST OF THE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL UTAH WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY WETTING RAIN.
HOWEVER...FEEL THAT THE THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING AND IT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL UTAH AND HAVE EXPANDED THIS INTO
THE NORTHWEST AS WELL TO COVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 478.

A SHALLOW FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST UTAH THURSDAY
MORNING...ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL UTAH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A
WEAK FRONT...AND THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SHIFT OF SURFACE WINDS
TO THE NORTH WITH THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS THAT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ488-489-
     492-493-495-496.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ478.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ492-495.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 230341
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
941 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY THEN LINGER OVER SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
NORTH WILL DRY BACK OUT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE SURGE COMING
UP FROM THE SOUTH HAVE REACHED SERN UT AND RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW
LIGHT ECHOES. HOWEVER THE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE 30S ACROSS
THIS AREA SO SUSPECT LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND AT
THIS TIME. THIS COULD CHANGE LATER TONIGHT AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS
WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN LATER TONIGHT THRU WED. THIS
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO ALL BUT THE
FAR NWRN CWA BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
COULD BE DRY WITH GUSTY WINDS AT FIRST BUT THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD
MOISTEN UP THRU THE DAY.

THE HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST IS STILL FORECAST TO FLATTEN THU INTO
FRI AS A TROF PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THIS SENDS A DRIER WEST-SWLY
FLOW INTO THE NRN CWA BUT MOISTURE WILL NOT CLEAR FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN OF DRY NORTH AND MOIST SOUTH STAYS MORE OR
LESS IN PLACE THRU THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH CENTER MIGRATES WWD
ACROSS AZ AND EVENTUALLY OVER NRN UT BY SUN. THIS WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION GOING OVER THE SOUTH AND IT WILL BE HOT AND
DRY OVER THE NORTH.

UPDATED EARLIER TO RAISE POPS FOR SERN UT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY AROUND 04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE ARE TWO MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST IS GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...AND THE SECOND IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

AS FAR AS WINDS...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN UTAH. THESE
WINDS...COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY...WILL COMBINE TO CREATE
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND SO THE RED FLAG WARNING
FOR WINDS AND LOW RH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING
FOR ZONE 478...THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH.

AS FAR AS LIGHTNING GOES...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL UTAH
THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UTAH WHERE THE MOISTURE IS
DEEPEST...MOST STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WETTING RAIN.
HOWEVER...ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH NORTHWARD
THROUGH WESTERN UTAH TO ABOUT I-80...MOISTURE WILL BE LARGELY
CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR
DRY LIGHTNING. DRY LIGHTNING IS CHALLENGING TO FORECAST...AND SO
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT MOST OF THE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL UTAH WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY WETTING RAIN.
HOWEVER...FEEL THAT THE THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING AND IT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL UTAH AND HAVE EXPANDED THIS INTO
THE NORTHWEST AS WELL TO COVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 478.

A SHALLOW FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST UTAH THURSDAY
MORNING...ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL UTAH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A
WEAK FRONT...AND THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SHIFT OF SURFACE WINDS
TO THE NORTH WITH THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS THAT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ488-489-
     492-493-495-496.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ478.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ492-495.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 230341
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
941 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY THEN LINGER OVER SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
NORTH WILL DRY BACK OUT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE SURGE COMING
UP FROM THE SOUTH HAVE REACHED SERN UT AND RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW
LIGHT ECHOES. HOWEVER THE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE 30S ACROSS
THIS AREA SO SUSPECT LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND AT
THIS TIME. THIS COULD CHANGE LATER TONIGHT AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS
WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN LATER TONIGHT THRU WED. THIS
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO ALL BUT THE
FAR NWRN CWA BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
COULD BE DRY WITH GUSTY WINDS AT FIRST BUT THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD
MOISTEN UP THRU THE DAY.

THE HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST IS STILL FORECAST TO FLATTEN THU INTO
FRI AS A TROF PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THIS SENDS A DRIER WEST-SWLY
FLOW INTO THE NRN CWA BUT MOISTURE WILL NOT CLEAR FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN OF DRY NORTH AND MOIST SOUTH STAYS MORE OR
LESS IN PLACE THRU THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH CENTER MIGRATES WWD
ACROSS AZ AND EVENTUALLY OVER NRN UT BY SUN. THIS WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION GOING OVER THE SOUTH AND IT WILL BE HOT AND
DRY OVER THE NORTH.

UPDATED EARLIER TO RAISE POPS FOR SERN UT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY AROUND 04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE ARE TWO MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST IS GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...AND THE SECOND IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

AS FAR AS WINDS...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN UTAH. THESE
WINDS...COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY...WILL COMBINE TO CREATE
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND SO THE RED FLAG WARNING
FOR WINDS AND LOW RH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING
FOR ZONE 478...THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH.

AS FAR AS LIGHTNING GOES...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL UTAH
THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UTAH WHERE THE MOISTURE IS
DEEPEST...MOST STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WETTING RAIN.
HOWEVER...ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH NORTHWARD
THROUGH WESTERN UTAH TO ABOUT I-80...MOISTURE WILL BE LARGELY
CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR
DRY LIGHTNING. DRY LIGHTNING IS CHALLENGING TO FORECAST...AND SO
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT MOST OF THE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL UTAH WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY WETTING RAIN.
HOWEVER...FEEL THAT THE THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING AND IT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL UTAH AND HAVE EXPANDED THIS INTO
THE NORTHWEST AS WELL TO COVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 478.

A SHALLOW FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST UTAH THURSDAY
MORNING...ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL UTAH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A
WEAK FRONT...AND THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SHIFT OF SURFACE WINDS
TO THE NORTH WITH THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS THAT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ488-489-
     492-493-495-496.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ478.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ492-495.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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