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000
FXUS65 KSLC 122303
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
403 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER UTAH TODAY WILL WEAKEN AS A COUPLE
OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES CROSS NORTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REBOUND ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY)...THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OF THE LAST
FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN THROUGH TONIGHT...FINALLY GIVING
WAY TO A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRUSHING NORTHERN UTAH AROUND
MID-DAY SATURDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE EARLY SUNDAY. EACH IMPULSE WILL SERVE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE STUBBORN INVERSION FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
UTAH. WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTING MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO
DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAZE AND SMOG WILL LIKELY
LINGER FOR THE WASATCH FRONT URBAN CORRIDOR AS COMPLETE MIXING IS
NOT LIKELY.

A FEW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS THE
VALLEYS AS WELL BY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH H7 TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
AROUND -6C AT SLC AND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COLDER AIR AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE VALLEYS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS
MOSTLY SNOW. HOWEVER...MODIFICATION OF THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND
GRADUAL WARMING AS THE INVERSION WEAKENS SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO
GRADUALLY MIX IN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT UPSLOPE REGIONS IN A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...TWO PRIMARY CONCERNS DURING THE
LONG TERM ARE THE STRENGTH OF LINGERING INVERSIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/WESTERN BASINS AND THE RESULTANT EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS TIMING OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...WITH THE
ASSUMPTION VALLEY INVERSIONS ARE WEAKENED BUT NOT COMPLETELY
DISLODGED BY THE SUNDAY TROUGH ASSUME COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TO SOME DEGREE ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
EXPANDS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WARMING ALOFT WILL ACT TO FURTHER
STRENGTHEN/REDEVELOP THESE INVERSIONS AND AS SUCH HAVE GENERALLY
GONE BELOW GUIDANCE TUESDAY ACROSS THESE AREAS WHILE TRENDING CLOSER
TO GUIDANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS WELL AS THE
SOUTHERN/EASTERN VALLEYS. THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE IF INVERSIONS DO
INDEED DISSOLVE OVER THE WEEKEND WESTERN VALLEYS MAY WARM
CONSIDERABLY MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THIS MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT.
IT WOULD SEEM MOST VALLEYS SHOULD MIX OUT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND
HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...ALTHOUGH
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE A FEW STUBBORN COLD POOLS
LINGER.

BOTH THE GFS AND EC BRING A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE THAN THE 12Z EC...WHICH ITSELF HAD
TRENDED FASTER FROM ITS 00Z PREDECESSOR. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
HAVE MAINTAINED POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH DID LOWER POPS JUST A BIT THURSDAY GIVING DEFERENCE
TO THE EC SOLUTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MILD WITH VALLEY
RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW AS THE P-TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS IN HAZE/FOG AND LOW STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF TEMPORARY LOW END
MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02Z. LIFR IN DENSE FOG AND/OR CIGS NEAR 200
FEET ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 04-06Z THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE IFR CATEGORY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

VAN CLEAVE/CHENG/SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 122303
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
403 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER UTAH TODAY WILL WEAKEN AS A COUPLE
OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES CROSS NORTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REBOUND ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY)...THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OF THE LAST
FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN THROUGH TONIGHT...FINALLY GIVING
WAY TO A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRUSHING NORTHERN UTAH AROUND
MID-DAY SATURDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE EARLY SUNDAY. EACH IMPULSE WILL SERVE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE STUBBORN INVERSION FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
UTAH. WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTING MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO
DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAZE AND SMOG WILL LIKELY
LINGER FOR THE WASATCH FRONT URBAN CORRIDOR AS COMPLETE MIXING IS
NOT LIKELY.

A FEW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS THE
VALLEYS AS WELL BY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH H7 TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
AROUND -6C AT SLC AND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COLDER AIR AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE VALLEYS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS
MOSTLY SNOW. HOWEVER...MODIFICATION OF THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND
GRADUAL WARMING AS THE INVERSION WEAKENS SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO
GRADUALLY MIX IN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT UPSLOPE REGIONS IN A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...TWO PRIMARY CONCERNS DURING THE
LONG TERM ARE THE STRENGTH OF LINGERING INVERSIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/WESTERN BASINS AND THE RESULTANT EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS TIMING OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...WITH THE
ASSUMPTION VALLEY INVERSIONS ARE WEAKENED BUT NOT COMPLETELY
DISLODGED BY THE SUNDAY TROUGH ASSUME COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TO SOME DEGREE ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
EXPANDS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WARMING ALOFT WILL ACT TO FURTHER
STRENGTHEN/REDEVELOP THESE INVERSIONS AND AS SUCH HAVE GENERALLY
GONE BELOW GUIDANCE TUESDAY ACROSS THESE AREAS WHILE TRENDING CLOSER
TO GUIDANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS WELL AS THE
SOUTHERN/EASTERN VALLEYS. THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE IF INVERSIONS DO
INDEED DISSOLVE OVER THE WEEKEND WESTERN VALLEYS MAY WARM
CONSIDERABLY MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THIS MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT.
IT WOULD SEEM MOST VALLEYS SHOULD MIX OUT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND
HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...ALTHOUGH
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE A FEW STUBBORN COLD POOLS
LINGER.

BOTH THE GFS AND EC BRING A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE THAN THE 12Z EC...WHICH ITSELF HAD
TRENDED FASTER FROM ITS 00Z PREDECESSOR. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
HAVE MAINTAINED POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH DID LOWER POPS JUST A BIT THURSDAY GIVING DEFERENCE
TO THE EC SOLUTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MILD WITH VALLEY
RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW AS THE P-TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS IN HAZE/FOG AND LOW STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF TEMPORARY LOW END
MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02Z. LIFR IN DENSE FOG AND/OR CIGS NEAR 200
FEET ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 04-06Z THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE IFR CATEGORY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

VAN CLEAVE/CHENG/SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 122303
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
403 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER UTAH TODAY WILL WEAKEN AS A COUPLE
OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES CROSS NORTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REBOUND ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY)...THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OF THE LAST
FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN THROUGH TONIGHT...FINALLY GIVING
WAY TO A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRUSHING NORTHERN UTAH AROUND
MID-DAY SATURDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE EARLY SUNDAY. EACH IMPULSE WILL SERVE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE STUBBORN INVERSION FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
UTAH. WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTING MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO
DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAZE AND SMOG WILL LIKELY
LINGER FOR THE WASATCH FRONT URBAN CORRIDOR AS COMPLETE MIXING IS
NOT LIKELY.

A FEW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS THE
VALLEYS AS WELL BY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH H7 TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
AROUND -6C AT SLC AND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COLDER AIR AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE VALLEYS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS
MOSTLY SNOW. HOWEVER...MODIFICATION OF THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND
GRADUAL WARMING AS THE INVERSION WEAKENS SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO
GRADUALLY MIX IN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT UPSLOPE REGIONS IN A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...TWO PRIMARY CONCERNS DURING THE
LONG TERM ARE THE STRENGTH OF LINGERING INVERSIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/WESTERN BASINS AND THE RESULTANT EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS TIMING OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...WITH THE
ASSUMPTION VALLEY INVERSIONS ARE WEAKENED BUT NOT COMPLETELY
DISLODGED BY THE SUNDAY TROUGH ASSUME COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TO SOME DEGREE ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
EXPANDS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WARMING ALOFT WILL ACT TO FURTHER
STRENGTHEN/REDEVELOP THESE INVERSIONS AND AS SUCH HAVE GENERALLY
GONE BELOW GUIDANCE TUESDAY ACROSS THESE AREAS WHILE TRENDING CLOSER
TO GUIDANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS WELL AS THE
SOUTHERN/EASTERN VALLEYS. THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE IF INVERSIONS DO
INDEED DISSOLVE OVER THE WEEKEND WESTERN VALLEYS MAY WARM
CONSIDERABLY MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THIS MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT.
IT WOULD SEEM MOST VALLEYS SHOULD MIX OUT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND
HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...ALTHOUGH
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE A FEW STUBBORN COLD POOLS
LINGER.

BOTH THE GFS AND EC BRING A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE THAN THE 12Z EC...WHICH ITSELF HAD
TRENDED FASTER FROM ITS 00Z PREDECESSOR. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
HAVE MAINTAINED POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH DID LOWER POPS JUST A BIT THURSDAY GIVING DEFERENCE
TO THE EC SOLUTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MILD WITH VALLEY
RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW AS THE P-TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS IN HAZE/FOG AND LOW STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF TEMPORARY LOW END
MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02Z. LIFR IN DENSE FOG AND/OR CIGS NEAR 200
FEET ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 04-06Z THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE IFR CATEGORY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

VAN CLEAVE/CHENG/SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 121729
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1029 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER UTAH TODAY WILL WEAKEN AS A COUPLE
OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES CROSS NORTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REBOUND ACROSS THEN REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
TODAY. THIS IS KEEPING A STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALOFT WHILE VALLEY INVERSIONS ARE KEEPING FOG AND STRATUS
MIRED IN MANY OF THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. STRATUS
AND DENSE FOG ARE LOCATED IN SIMILAR AREAS AS YESTERDAY...WITH THE
WORST OF IT IN THE UTAH COUNTY AREA. BECAUSE COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG
HAS DECREASED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. ALTHOUGH STRATUS MAY ERODE SOMEWHAT ALONG
THE EDGES AGAIN TODAY...IT IS UNLIKELY TO COMPLETELY BURN OFF AND
VALLEYS UNDERNEATH IT WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE. AS A
RESULT...A GOOD FORECAST FOR TODAY WOULD BE SOMETHING CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE.

A COUPLE OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GRAZE NORTHERN
UTAH OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR
ALOFT AND SHOULD WEAKEN THE LID ON THE INVERSIONS. HOWEVER...THEY
STILL DO NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SWEEP THE
INVERSIONS AWAY.

ONLY MADE MINOR UPDATES TO LOWER SOME VALLEY TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
AND DECREASED DENSE FOG COVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS IN HAZE/FOG AND LOW STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD. LIFR IN DENSE FOG AND/OR CIGS NEAR 200 FEET ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS
REMAIN IN THE IFR CATEGORY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 121729
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1029 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER UTAH TODAY WILL WEAKEN AS A COUPLE
OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES CROSS NORTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REBOUND ACROSS THEN REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
TODAY. THIS IS KEEPING A STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALOFT WHILE VALLEY INVERSIONS ARE KEEPING FOG AND STRATUS
MIRED IN MANY OF THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. STRATUS
AND DENSE FOG ARE LOCATED IN SIMILAR AREAS AS YESTERDAY...WITH THE
WORST OF IT IN THE UTAH COUNTY AREA. BECAUSE COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG
HAS DECREASED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. ALTHOUGH STRATUS MAY ERODE SOMEWHAT ALONG
THE EDGES AGAIN TODAY...IT IS UNLIKELY TO COMPLETELY BURN OFF AND
VALLEYS UNDERNEATH IT WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE. AS A
RESULT...A GOOD FORECAST FOR TODAY WOULD BE SOMETHING CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE.

A COUPLE OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GRAZE NORTHERN
UTAH OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR
ALOFT AND SHOULD WEAKEN THE LID ON THE INVERSIONS. HOWEVER...THEY
STILL DO NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SWEEP THE
INVERSIONS AWAY.

ONLY MADE MINOR UPDATES TO LOWER SOME VALLEY TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
AND DECREASED DENSE FOG COVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS IN HAZE/FOG AND LOW STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD. LIFR IN DENSE FOG AND/OR CIGS NEAR 200 FEET ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS
REMAIN IN THE IFR CATEGORY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 121729
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1029 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER UTAH TODAY WILL WEAKEN AS A COUPLE
OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES CROSS NORTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REBOUND ACROSS THEN REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
TODAY. THIS IS KEEPING A STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALOFT WHILE VALLEY INVERSIONS ARE KEEPING FOG AND STRATUS
MIRED IN MANY OF THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. STRATUS
AND DENSE FOG ARE LOCATED IN SIMILAR AREAS AS YESTERDAY...WITH THE
WORST OF IT IN THE UTAH COUNTY AREA. BECAUSE COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG
HAS DECREASED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. ALTHOUGH STRATUS MAY ERODE SOMEWHAT ALONG
THE EDGES AGAIN TODAY...IT IS UNLIKELY TO COMPLETELY BURN OFF AND
VALLEYS UNDERNEATH IT WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE. AS A
RESULT...A GOOD FORECAST FOR TODAY WOULD BE SOMETHING CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE.

A COUPLE OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GRAZE NORTHERN
UTAH OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR
ALOFT AND SHOULD WEAKEN THE LID ON THE INVERSIONS. HOWEVER...THEY
STILL DO NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SWEEP THE
INVERSIONS AWAY.

ONLY MADE MINOR UPDATES TO LOWER SOME VALLEY TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
AND DECREASED DENSE FOG COVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS IN HAZE/FOG AND LOW STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD. LIFR IN DENSE FOG AND/OR CIGS NEAR 200 FEET ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS
REMAIN IN THE IFR CATEGORY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 121125
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
425 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER UTAH TODAY WILL WEAKEN AS A COUPLE
OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES CROSS NORTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REBOUND ACROSS THEN REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z TUESDAY)...THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL HANG ON FOR ONE MORE DAY TODAY...THEN
WEAKEN AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND.

THE FOG...URBAN HAZE AND STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN LOCKED IN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL VALLEYS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE
BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE SOME EROSION OF THE STRATUS AROUND THE
PERIMETER TODAY...ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF
DENSE FOG THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE FIRST WEEKEND SHORTWAVE WILL FOCUS ON THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION TOO FAR TO THE NORTH TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
THE STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN UTAH. SUSPECT
THAT THE MAIN CHANGE IF ANY FROM THIS FIRST FEATURE WILL BE TO
NUDGE SOME OF THE STRATUS SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
DESERT WITH A LITTLE LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG SATURDAY
MORNING.

AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR 130W SUNDAY WILL DRIVE A
SECOND SHORTWAVE ON A SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN UTAH. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR
ALOFT AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BUT MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIP INTO NORTHERN
UTAH...WHICH IN TURN COULD END UP WEAKENING OR BREAKING DOWN
ENTIRELY MOST VALLEY INVERSIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MOIST LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE WILL
MAINTAIN SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH AND FURTHER ERODE ANY
LINGERING VALLEY INVERSIONS ON MONDAY.

THE CLEARING OUT OF THE WEST-CENTRAL UTAH VALLEYS WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON THE TRAJECTORY OF THE SUNDAY SHORTWAVE. IF THIS FEATURE
REMAINS TOO FAR TO THE NORTH AND EAST PER THE ECMWF...THEN THE
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO DISLODGE THE
STRONG INVERSIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...THOUGH IT
WOULD STILL REMAIN A COIN FLIP AS TO WHETHER THE INVERSIONS WOULD
BREAK DOWN ON MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE GFS SOLUTION AND
PUSH THE FOG AND SURFACE VERY COLD AIR OUT AND BRING MODESTLY
WARMER TEMPS TO THE AREA HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...ON THE FRONT SIDE OF A BUILDING
RIDGE ONCE AGAIN...700MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN A WARMING TREND BACK
ABOVE 0C. WHILE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SHORT LIVED...PEAKING AROUND 4C BY LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY...A BETTER ALIGNED TROUGH FEATURE WILL IMPACT THE AREA BY
THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO
UTAH. GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY IN SYNC EXCEPT
FOR EXACT TIMING OF THE TROUGH FOR NEXT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A
SLIGHT SPLITTING NATURE OF THE PATTERN LOOKS PROBABLE.

THE WIND PATTERN LOOKS TO QUICKLY SWITCH FROM A NORTHWESTERLY TO A
SOUTHWESTERLY BY MID WEEK...HELPING TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED
ENOUGH TO HOPEFULLY DAMPEN DOWN THE INVERSION BUILDING PROCESS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE SLC TERMINAL TODAY...EXPECTING IFR CONDITIONS IN
FOG/HAZE AND LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 20Z TO 21Z BEFORE
HAZE SCATTERS OUT. 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING LIFR CONDITIONS
BEFORE 16Z. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO SWING NORTHERLY BY 17Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...DEWEY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 120246
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
746 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
NORTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE DOMINATING THE WEST.
AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS PLACE A 80-135KT ANTICYCLONIC
JET FROM WESTERN CANADA OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. GOES/HRRR/GPS/00Z SLC RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.15"-0.25" MOUNTAINS...TO 0.35"-0.50"
NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL VALLEYS.

WITH AN INVERSION IN PLACE...MAIN CONCERN IS HAZE/FOG/STRATUS AND
TEMPERATURES. THE BASE OF THE INVERSION HAS LOWERED TO 850MB WITH A
STRENGTH OF 10.7C...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING.

STRATUS DECK CONTINUES ITS HOLD OVER THE WEST DESERT AND INTO THE
WASATCH FRONT...BUT HAS RECENTLY BECOME OBSCURED DUE TO CIRRUS ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THESE HIGH CLOUDS MAY HELP TO KEEP THE FOG FROM
BECOMING SO DENSE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

HAVE ADJUSTED FOG WORDING TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE LAKESHORE
AND BENCHES WHERE TERRAIN INTERSECTS STRATUS. DID THE SAME ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL UTAH AND THE SANPETE VALLEY WHERE PREVIOUS NIGHTS HAVE
SHOWN SOME OF THE WORSE VISIBILITIES...ADJACENT TO UTAH VALLEY.

ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT/RH AND
APPARENT TEMPERATURE CURVES WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND LAMP
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...KEEPING A STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES AT
700MB REMAIN QUITE MILD...GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 TO 5C ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...MOST HIGHER ELEVATION SITES CONTINUE
TO SEE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...LOWER VALLEYS OF MAINLY
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH REMAIN MIRED IN INVERSIONS WITH FOG AND
LOW STRATUS. SATELLITE TRENDS DO INDICATE THE STRATUS ERODING A
BIT ALONG THE EDGES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES.

EXPECT THE STRATUS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FOG INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET DESPITE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS HELPING TO
LIMIT RADIATIVE COOLING SOMEWHAT. NOT ISSUING ANY FOG HIGHLIGHTS
WITH THIS PACKAGE EVEN THOUGH SOME DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED.
RATHER...WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR TRENDS AS THE HIGH
CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG. NOT LOOKING AT ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE WEATHER FOR TOMORROW.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A COUPLE OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH. BECAUSE THESE STORMS ARE NOT VERY
STRONG...THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SWEEP AWAY THE INVERSIONS.
RATHER...COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE INVERSIONS FROM
ABOVE. THE SATURDAY STORM IS ONLY EXPECTED TO PUT A SMALL DENT IN
THE INVERSION AND NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH IF ANY IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. THE STORM ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER...USHER IN
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTH. THE
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE VALLEY BOTTOMS SO AS A
RESULT THE INVERSIONS MAY NOT COMPLETELY ERODE AWAY.
NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE LATEST EC COMING IN STRONGER WITH THE STORM
THAN THE 00Z RUN...THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TO
AIR QUALITY SEEMS MORE LIKELY.

LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE NORCAL COAST WILL
MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS SHORT WAVE AND WEAK
JET SUPPORT ALOFT MAY MAINTAIN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MONDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT LARGELY
LOOKING AT A SOMEWHAT IMPROVED AND PARTIALLY MIXED
ENVIRONMENT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATING. AXIS OF
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL TREND TO SHIFT INLAND AND OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD ALLOWING ANOTHER ROUND OF RISING
HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENT WARMING...THIS LIKELY STRENGTHENING
INVERSIONS ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND BASINS ONCE AGAIN. THIS
SAID...NET STRENGTH AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS RIDGE WILL BE WEAKER
THAN THE CURRENT SITUATION...AND RESIDENCE TIME QUITE A BIT
SHORTER.

GLOBAL MODELS DO PICK UP ON A NET PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK AS MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
TRANSITIONS MORE ZONAL DRIVING AT LEAST THE REMNANT ENERGY OF AN
ADEQUATE TROUGH INLAND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN.
EVOLUTION...TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD IN GUIDANCE...BUT THE LIKELIHOOD
OF HAVING SOME SEMBLANCE OF A TROUGH MOVE THROUGH IN THE THU OR FRI
TIMEFRAME LOOKS LIKE A DECENT BET. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED FLOW
ALOFT AND CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST CAA AT THE
LOW/MID LEVELS DURING PASSAGE MAY HAVE A NOTABLE AFFECT ON THE
PERSISTENT INVERSIONS AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS IN HAZE/FOG AND LOW STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD. DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN CREEP INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AIRFIELD TONIGHT...AND A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE EXISTS THAT THIS FOG WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AIRFIELD SOMETIME
WITHIN THE 09Z-14Z WINDOW.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/CHENG/MERRILL
AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 112316
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
416 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
NORTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)...A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING A STABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE. TEMPERATURES AT 700MB REMAIN QUITE MILD...GENERALLY BETWEEN 2
TO 5C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...MOST HIGHER ELEVATION
SITES CONTINUE TO SEE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...LOWER
VALLEYS OF MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH REMAIN MIRED IN
INVERSIONS WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS. SATELLITE TRENDS DO INDICATE
THE STRATUS ERODING A BIT ALONG THE EDGES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES.

EXPECT THE STRATUS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FOG INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET DESPITE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS HELPING TO
LIMIT RADIATIVE COOLING SOMEWHAT. NOT ISSUING ANY FOG HIGHLIGHTS
WITH THIS PACKAGE EVEN THOUGH SOME DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED.
RATHER...WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR TRENDS AS THE HIGH
CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG. NOT LOOKING AT ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE WEATHER FOR TOMORROW.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A COUPLE OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH. BECAUSE THESE STORMS ARE NOT VERY
STRONG...THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SWEEP AWAY THE INVERSIONS.
RATHER...COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE INVERSIONS FROM
ABOVE. THE SATURDAY STORM IS ONLY EXPECTED TO PUT A SMALL DENT IN
THE INVERSION AND NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH IF ANY IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. THE STORM ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER...USHER IN
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTH. THE
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE VALLEY BOTTOMS SO AS A
RESULT THE INVERSIONS MAY NOT COMPLETELY ERODE AWAY.
NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE LATEST EC COMING IN STRONGER WITH THE STORM
THAN THE 00Z RUN...THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TO
AIR QUALITY SEEMS MORE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z MONDAY)...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING CENTERED OVER
THE NORCAL COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS SHORT
WAVE AND WEAK JET SUPPORT ALOFT MAY MAINTAIN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MONDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
LARGELY LOOKING AT A SOMEWHAT IMPROVED AND PARTIALLY MIXED
ENVIRONMENT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATING. AXIS OF AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE WILL TREND TO SHIFT INLAND AND OVERHEAD THROUGH THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD ALLOWING ANOTHER ROUND OF RISING HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENT
WARMING...THIS LIKELY STRENGTHENING INVERSIONS ACROSS THE VALLEYS
AND BASINS ONCE AGAIN. THIS SAID...NET STRENGTH AND AMPLITUDE OF
THIS RIDGE WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT SITUATION...AND RESIDENCE
TIME QUITE A BIT SHORTER.

GLOBAL MODELS DO PICK UP ON A NET PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK AS MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
TRANSITIONS MORE ZONAL DRIVING AT LEAST THE REMNANT ENERGY OF AN
ADEQUATE TROUGH INLAND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN.
EVOLUTION...TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD IN GUIDANCE...BUT THE LIKELIHOOD
OF HAVING SOME SEMBLANCE OF A TROUGH MOVE THROUGH IN THE THU OR FRI
TIMEFRAME LOOKS LIKE A DECENT BET. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED FLOW
ALOFT AND CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST CAA AT THE
LOW/MID LEVELS DURING PASSAGE MAY HAVE A NOTABLE AFFECT ON THE
PERSISTENT INVERSIONS AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS IN HAZE/FOG AND LOW STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD. SURFACE VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR LEVELS
FOR THE TIME BEING BUT AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS IS UNLIKELY TO THIN AT
THIS POINT THIS AFTERNOON. DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN CREEP
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AIRFIELD TONIGHT...AND A 60
PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS THAT THIS FOG WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AIRFIELD
SOMETIME WITHIN THE 09-14Z WINDOW.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 112316
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
416 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
NORTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)...A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING A STABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE. TEMPERATURES AT 700MB REMAIN QUITE MILD...GENERALLY BETWEEN 2
TO 5C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...MOST HIGHER ELEVATION
SITES CONTINUE TO SEE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...LOWER
VALLEYS OF MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH REMAIN MIRED IN
INVERSIONS WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS. SATELLITE TRENDS DO INDICATE
THE STRATUS ERODING A BIT ALONG THE EDGES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES.

EXPECT THE STRATUS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FOG INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET DESPITE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS HELPING TO
LIMIT RADIATIVE COOLING SOMEWHAT. NOT ISSUING ANY FOG HIGHLIGHTS
WITH THIS PACKAGE EVEN THOUGH SOME DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED.
RATHER...WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR TRENDS AS THE HIGH
CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG. NOT LOOKING AT ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE WEATHER FOR TOMORROW.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A COUPLE OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH. BECAUSE THESE STORMS ARE NOT VERY
STRONG...THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SWEEP AWAY THE INVERSIONS.
RATHER...COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE INVERSIONS FROM
ABOVE. THE SATURDAY STORM IS ONLY EXPECTED TO PUT A SMALL DENT IN
THE INVERSION AND NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH IF ANY IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. THE STORM ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER...USHER IN
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTH. THE
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE VALLEY BOTTOMS SO AS A
RESULT THE INVERSIONS MAY NOT COMPLETELY ERODE AWAY.
NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE LATEST EC COMING IN STRONGER WITH THE STORM
THAN THE 00Z RUN...THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TO
AIR QUALITY SEEMS MORE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z MONDAY)...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING CENTERED OVER
THE NORCAL COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS SHORT
WAVE AND WEAK JET SUPPORT ALOFT MAY MAINTAIN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MONDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
LARGELY LOOKING AT A SOMEWHAT IMPROVED AND PARTIALLY MIXED
ENVIRONMENT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATING. AXIS OF AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE WILL TREND TO SHIFT INLAND AND OVERHEAD THROUGH THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD ALLOWING ANOTHER ROUND OF RISING HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENT
WARMING...THIS LIKELY STRENGTHENING INVERSIONS ACROSS THE VALLEYS
AND BASINS ONCE AGAIN. THIS SAID...NET STRENGTH AND AMPLITUDE OF
THIS RIDGE WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT SITUATION...AND RESIDENCE
TIME QUITE A BIT SHORTER.

GLOBAL MODELS DO PICK UP ON A NET PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK AS MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
TRANSITIONS MORE ZONAL DRIVING AT LEAST THE REMNANT ENERGY OF AN
ADEQUATE TROUGH INLAND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN.
EVOLUTION...TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD IN GUIDANCE...BUT THE LIKELIHOOD
OF HAVING SOME SEMBLANCE OF A TROUGH MOVE THROUGH IN THE THU OR FRI
TIMEFRAME LOOKS LIKE A DECENT BET. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED FLOW
ALOFT AND CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST CAA AT THE
LOW/MID LEVELS DURING PASSAGE MAY HAVE A NOTABLE AFFECT ON THE
PERSISTENT INVERSIONS AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS IN HAZE/FOG AND LOW STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD. SURFACE VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR LEVELS
FOR THE TIME BEING BUT AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS IS UNLIKELY TO THIN AT
THIS POINT THIS AFTERNOON. DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN CREEP
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AIRFIELD TONIGHT...AND A 60
PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS THAT THIS FOG WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AIRFIELD
SOMETIME WITHIN THE 09-14Z WINDOW.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 112316
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
416 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
NORTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)...A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING A STABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE. TEMPERATURES AT 700MB REMAIN QUITE MILD...GENERALLY BETWEEN 2
TO 5C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...MOST HIGHER ELEVATION
SITES CONTINUE TO SEE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...LOWER
VALLEYS OF MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH REMAIN MIRED IN
INVERSIONS WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS. SATELLITE TRENDS DO INDICATE
THE STRATUS ERODING A BIT ALONG THE EDGES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES.

EXPECT THE STRATUS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FOG INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET DESPITE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS HELPING TO
LIMIT RADIATIVE COOLING SOMEWHAT. NOT ISSUING ANY FOG HIGHLIGHTS
WITH THIS PACKAGE EVEN THOUGH SOME DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED.
RATHER...WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR TRENDS AS THE HIGH
CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG. NOT LOOKING AT ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE WEATHER FOR TOMORROW.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A COUPLE OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH. BECAUSE THESE STORMS ARE NOT VERY
STRONG...THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SWEEP AWAY THE INVERSIONS.
RATHER...COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE INVERSIONS FROM
ABOVE. THE SATURDAY STORM IS ONLY EXPECTED TO PUT A SMALL DENT IN
THE INVERSION AND NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH IF ANY IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. THE STORM ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER...USHER IN
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTH. THE
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE VALLEY BOTTOMS SO AS A
RESULT THE INVERSIONS MAY NOT COMPLETELY ERODE AWAY.
NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE LATEST EC COMING IN STRONGER WITH THE STORM
THAN THE 00Z RUN...THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TO
AIR QUALITY SEEMS MORE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z MONDAY)...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING CENTERED OVER
THE NORCAL COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS SHORT
WAVE AND WEAK JET SUPPORT ALOFT MAY MAINTAIN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MONDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
LARGELY LOOKING AT A SOMEWHAT IMPROVED AND PARTIALLY MIXED
ENVIRONMENT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATING. AXIS OF AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE WILL TREND TO SHIFT INLAND AND OVERHEAD THROUGH THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD ALLOWING ANOTHER ROUND OF RISING HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENT
WARMING...THIS LIKELY STRENGTHENING INVERSIONS ACROSS THE VALLEYS
AND BASINS ONCE AGAIN. THIS SAID...NET STRENGTH AND AMPLITUDE OF
THIS RIDGE WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT SITUATION...AND RESIDENCE
TIME QUITE A BIT SHORTER.

GLOBAL MODELS DO PICK UP ON A NET PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK AS MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
TRANSITIONS MORE ZONAL DRIVING AT LEAST THE REMNANT ENERGY OF AN
ADEQUATE TROUGH INLAND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN.
EVOLUTION...TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD IN GUIDANCE...BUT THE LIKELIHOOD
OF HAVING SOME SEMBLANCE OF A TROUGH MOVE THROUGH IN THE THU OR FRI
TIMEFRAME LOOKS LIKE A DECENT BET. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED FLOW
ALOFT AND CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST CAA AT THE
LOW/MID LEVELS DURING PASSAGE MAY HAVE A NOTABLE AFFECT ON THE
PERSISTENT INVERSIONS AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS IN HAZE/FOG AND LOW STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD. SURFACE VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR LEVELS
FOR THE TIME BEING BUT AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS IS UNLIKELY TO THIN AT
THIS POINT THIS AFTERNOON. DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN CREEP
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AIRFIELD TONIGHT...AND A 60
PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS THAT THIS FOG WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AIRFIELD
SOMETIME WITHIN THE 09-14Z WINDOW.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 111623
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
923 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
NORTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE CURRENT LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WHILE
MILD CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...VALLEY INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. FOG AND HAZE
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN THESE VALLEY AREAS TODAY THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY MORNING.

DENSE FOG HAS DISSIPATED IN MANY AREAS BUT CONTINUE TO LINGER IN
UTAH COUNTY PARTICULARLY NEAR UTAH LAKE AS WELL AS ALONG PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL UTAH ALONG THE I-15 CORRIDOR NEAR FILLMORE. HAVE EARLIER
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT
THROUGH NOON...OTHERWISE NO OTHER HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE. FOG/STRATUS
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES DEPRESSED IN SOME OF THE
LOWER VALLEYS OF NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UTAH
TODAY.

A COUPLE OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE
INVERSIONS FROM ALOFT AND SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME IMPROVEMENT
FROM THE FOG AND HAZE...ALTHOUGH A WELL MIXED AIRMASS MAY REMAIN
ELUSIVE IN THE VALLEYS.

UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO REDUCE DENSE FOG WORDING FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS IN HAZE AND LOW STRATUS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID
TAF PERIOD. SURFACE VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO LOW END
MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES IN THE 21-02Z WINDOW...BUT ONLY A 20 CHANCE
EXISTS THAT LOW STRATUS WILL THIN AND SCATTER DURING THAT TIME
MAINTAINING IFR CONDITIONS. DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN
CREEP INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AIRFIELD TONIGHT...AND A
60 PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS THAT THIS FOG WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AIRFIELD SOMETIME WITHIN THE 09-14Z WINDOW.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR UTZ004.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 111135
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
435 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
NORTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z MONDAY)...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE PATTERN THIS WEEK WILL HANG ON THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT LITTLE CHANGE TO THE STRATUS/FOG/HAZE ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN UTAH AS MIXING REMAINS POOR UNDERNEATH STRONG VALLEY
INVERSIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY THIS WEEKEND AS THE FIRST OF
A LEAST TWO SHORTWAVES TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN. THE FIRST FEATURE ON SATURDAY WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF
ITS ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODEST COOLING ALOFT ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN UTAH PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO ENTIRELY BREAK DOWN THE
VALLEY INVERSIONS. THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED SURFACE FEATURE WILL
ALSO WORK AGAINST BREAKING THE VERY STABLE AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE.

THE SECOND SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH. STRONGER COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL GENERATE SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO HAVE MORE SUCCESS BREAKING UP THE
INVERSION ACROSS THE NORTH...THOUGH THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED
SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LIMIT THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE COOLING ALOFT.
WEST-CENTRAL UTAH WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT AS THE BULK
OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND PRECIP WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH/SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...THE STABLE RIDGE PATTERN SHIFTS TO
MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DUE IN PART TO A SHORT WAVE FEATURE
THAT IS FORECAST TO BRUSH BY TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE PRECEDING
WEEKEND. UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT 700MB TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
WARM A FEW DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK.

THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY SEEMS TO
BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS. WITH THE GFS
HINTING AT A WETTER SOLUTION COMPARED WITH THE ECMWF...BOTH ARE
PORTRAYING A TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA BEFORE
HAVING A SPLIT NATURE AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...AT THE KSLC TERMINAL EXPECTING LOW IFR CONDITIONS IN
FOG. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO SEE LIFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN FOG.
CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY SCATTER BETWEEN 20Z THIS AFTERNOON AND 02Z THIS
EVENING...BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR UTZ001-004-
     015.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...DEWEY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 111135
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
435 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
NORTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z MONDAY)...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE PATTERN THIS WEEK WILL HANG ON THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT LITTLE CHANGE TO THE STRATUS/FOG/HAZE ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN UTAH AS MIXING REMAINS POOR UNDERNEATH STRONG VALLEY
INVERSIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY THIS WEEKEND AS THE FIRST OF
A LEAST TWO SHORTWAVES TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN. THE FIRST FEATURE ON SATURDAY WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF
ITS ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODEST COOLING ALOFT ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN UTAH PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO ENTIRELY BREAK DOWN THE
VALLEY INVERSIONS. THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED SURFACE FEATURE WILL
ALSO WORK AGAINST BREAKING THE VERY STABLE AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE.

THE SECOND SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH. STRONGER COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL GENERATE SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO HAVE MORE SUCCESS BREAKING UP THE
INVERSION ACROSS THE NORTH...THOUGH THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED
SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LIMIT THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE COOLING ALOFT.
WEST-CENTRAL UTAH WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT AS THE BULK
OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND PRECIP WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH/SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...THE STABLE RIDGE PATTERN SHIFTS TO
MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DUE IN PART TO A SHORT WAVE FEATURE
THAT IS FORECAST TO BRUSH BY TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE PRECEDING
WEEKEND. UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT 700MB TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
WARM A FEW DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK.

THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY SEEMS TO
BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS. WITH THE GFS
HINTING AT A WETTER SOLUTION COMPARED WITH THE ECMWF...BOTH ARE
PORTRAYING A TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA BEFORE
HAVING A SPLIT NATURE AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...AT THE KSLC TERMINAL EXPECTING LOW IFR CONDITIONS IN
FOG. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO SEE LIFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN FOG.
CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY SCATTER BETWEEN 20Z THIS AFTERNOON AND 02Z THIS
EVENING...BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR UTZ001-004-
     015.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...DEWEY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 111135
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
435 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
NORTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z MONDAY)...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE PATTERN THIS WEEK WILL HANG ON THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT LITTLE CHANGE TO THE STRATUS/FOG/HAZE ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN UTAH AS MIXING REMAINS POOR UNDERNEATH STRONG VALLEY
INVERSIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY THIS WEEKEND AS THE FIRST OF
A LEAST TWO SHORTWAVES TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN. THE FIRST FEATURE ON SATURDAY WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF
ITS ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODEST COOLING ALOFT ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN UTAH PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO ENTIRELY BREAK DOWN THE
VALLEY INVERSIONS. THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED SURFACE FEATURE WILL
ALSO WORK AGAINST BREAKING THE VERY STABLE AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE.

THE SECOND SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH. STRONGER COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL GENERATE SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO HAVE MORE SUCCESS BREAKING UP THE
INVERSION ACROSS THE NORTH...THOUGH THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED
SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LIMIT THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE COOLING ALOFT.
WEST-CENTRAL UTAH WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT AS THE BULK
OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND PRECIP WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH/SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...THE STABLE RIDGE PATTERN SHIFTS TO
MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DUE IN PART TO A SHORT WAVE FEATURE
THAT IS FORECAST TO BRUSH BY TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE PRECEDING
WEEKEND. UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT 700MB TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
WARM A FEW DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK.

THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY SEEMS TO
BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS. WITH THE GFS
HINTING AT A WETTER SOLUTION COMPARED WITH THE ECMWF...BOTH ARE
PORTRAYING A TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA BEFORE
HAVING A SPLIT NATURE AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...AT THE KSLC TERMINAL EXPECTING LOW IFR CONDITIONS IN
FOG. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO SEE LIFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN FOG.
CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY SCATTER BETWEEN 20Z THIS AFTERNOON AND 02Z THIS
EVENING...BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR UTZ001-004-
     015.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...DEWEY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 110521
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1021 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST...THE MAIN
WEATHER RELATED ISSUE WILL BE STRENGTHENING INVERSIONS ACROSS THE
VALLEYS OF UTAH. DENSE FOG IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED NEAR
DELTA...FILLMORE...LOGAN...PROVO AND NEPHI AMONG OTHER LOCATIONS.
EXPECT DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP...AT LEAST IN PATCHES...ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE WASATCH FRONT AND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT...THE
CACHE VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL UTAH BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SALT LAKE VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN
WASATCH FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL ADD THOSE LOCATIONS
IF NECESSARY.

GIVEN THE DENSE FOG IN THE CACHE AND SEVERAL OTHER
LOCATIONS...UPDATED THE MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT
TRENDS. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERNIGHT AT THE KSLC TERMINAL EXPECTING LOW IFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF LIFR IN
FOG...SOMETIME BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z. CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY SCATTER
BETWEEN 20Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 02Z THURSDAY EVENING...BUT IFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THURSDAY FOR UTZ001-004-015.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

KRUSE/DEWEY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 110521
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1021 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST...THE MAIN
WEATHER RELATED ISSUE WILL BE STRENGTHENING INVERSIONS ACROSS THE
VALLEYS OF UTAH. DENSE FOG IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED NEAR
DELTA...FILLMORE...LOGAN...PROVO AND NEPHI AMONG OTHER LOCATIONS.
EXPECT DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP...AT LEAST IN PATCHES...ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE WASATCH FRONT AND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT...THE
CACHE VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL UTAH BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SALT LAKE VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN
WASATCH FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL ADD THOSE LOCATIONS
IF NECESSARY.

GIVEN THE DENSE FOG IN THE CACHE AND SEVERAL OTHER
LOCATIONS...UPDATED THE MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT
TRENDS. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERNIGHT AT THE KSLC TERMINAL EXPECTING LOW IFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF LIFR IN
FOG...SOMETIME BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z. CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY SCATTER
BETWEEN 20Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 02Z THURSDAY EVENING...BUT IFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THURSDAY FOR UTZ001-004-015.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

KRUSE/DEWEY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 110521
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1021 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST...THE MAIN
WEATHER RELATED ISSUE WILL BE STRENGTHENING INVERSIONS ACROSS THE
VALLEYS OF UTAH. DENSE FOG IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED NEAR
DELTA...FILLMORE...LOGAN...PROVO AND NEPHI AMONG OTHER LOCATIONS.
EXPECT DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP...AT LEAST IN PATCHES...ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE WASATCH FRONT AND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT...THE
CACHE VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL UTAH BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SALT LAKE VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN
WASATCH FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL ADD THOSE LOCATIONS
IF NECESSARY.

GIVEN THE DENSE FOG IN THE CACHE AND SEVERAL OTHER
LOCATIONS...UPDATED THE MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT
TRENDS. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERNIGHT AT THE KSLC TERMINAL EXPECTING LOW IFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF LIFR IN
FOG...SOMETIME BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z. CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY SCATTER
BETWEEN 20Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 02Z THURSDAY EVENING...BUT IFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THURSDAY FOR UTZ001-004-015.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

KRUSE/DEWEY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 110521
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1021 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST...THE MAIN
WEATHER RELATED ISSUE WILL BE STRENGTHENING INVERSIONS ACROSS THE
VALLEYS OF UTAH. DENSE FOG IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED NEAR
DELTA...FILLMORE...LOGAN...PROVO AND NEPHI AMONG OTHER LOCATIONS.
EXPECT DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP...AT LEAST IN PATCHES...ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE WASATCH FRONT AND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT...THE
CACHE VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL UTAH BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SALT LAKE VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN
WASATCH FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL ADD THOSE LOCATIONS
IF NECESSARY.

GIVEN THE DENSE FOG IN THE CACHE AND SEVERAL OTHER
LOCATIONS...UPDATED THE MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT
TRENDS. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERNIGHT AT THE KSLC TERMINAL EXPECTING LOW IFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF LIFR IN
FOG...SOMETIME BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z. CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY SCATTER
BETWEEN 20Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 02Z THURSDAY EVENING...BUT IFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THURSDAY FOR UTZ001-004-015.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

KRUSE/DEWEY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 110521
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1021 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST...THE MAIN
WEATHER RELATED ISSUE WILL BE STRENGTHENING INVERSIONS ACROSS THE
VALLEYS OF UTAH. DENSE FOG IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED NEAR
DELTA...FILLMORE...LOGAN...PROVO AND NEPHI AMONG OTHER LOCATIONS.
EXPECT DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP...AT LEAST IN PATCHES...ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE WASATCH FRONT AND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT...THE
CACHE VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL UTAH BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SALT LAKE VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN
WASATCH FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL ADD THOSE LOCATIONS
IF NECESSARY.

GIVEN THE DENSE FOG IN THE CACHE AND SEVERAL OTHER
LOCATIONS...UPDATED THE MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT
TRENDS. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERNIGHT AT THE KSLC TERMINAL EXPECTING LOW IFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF LIFR IN
FOG...SOMETIME BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z. CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY SCATTER
BETWEEN 20Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 02Z THURSDAY EVENING...BUT IFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THURSDAY FOR UTZ001-004-015.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

KRUSE/DEWEY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




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