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000
FXUS65 KSLC 292140
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
340 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A NORTHEAST SHIFT OF THIS
HIGH WILL ALLOW A MODEST SURGE OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY)...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE SRN PLAINS STATES WEST NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE NRN CA
COAST. MOISTURE IS POOLED TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE OVER AZ AND A
LITTLE OF THIS IS BEGINNING TO SEEP INTO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH AT MID
LEVELS.

THE AIRMASS WARMING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
WITH THE HIGH OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NWD THRU FRI AND MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEEP NORTHWARD MAINLY AT MID LEVELS WITH THE LOWER
LEVELS STAYING FAIRLY DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER FAR
SERN UT AS A SMALL LOW DRIFTS OUT OF AZ THRU THE RIDGE AND ACROSS
FAR SERN UT ON FRI.

THIS INCREASING MOISTURE WOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION TO
THE FAR SERN CWA THU AFTN AND ACROSS MORE OF THE SOUTH FRI. MOST OF
THESE STORMS WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING
BUT NOT MUCH RAIN. THE FAR SERN CWA COULD SEE WETTER STORMS WHERE
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE DEEPER.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z SATURDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING A NET NORTHEASTERLY SHIFT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SAID SHIFT
WILL ALLOW THE MORE MODEST SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY PINNED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE UT/AZ BORDER TO ADVECT NORTH/NORTHEAST AS
MID LEVEL STREAMLINES BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ORIENTED. INCREASING
SPREAD IN GUIDANCE DEVELOPS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY REGARDING
FORMATION AND EVOLUTION OF RETURN FLOW WAVES THAT WOULD ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THAT TIME. THE 12Z ECMWF BECAME QUITE
BULLISH WITH ONCE SUCH FEATURE OWING TO HIGHER AND MORE AREALLY
EXPANSIVE QPF DURING THAT TIME. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH REGARDING THIS
AND HAVE OPTED TO NOT CHANGE POPS OR TEMPS MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. THE EC SOLUTION WOULD BE BOTH WETTER AND MUCH COOLER COME
MONDAY.

REGARDING THE MOISTURE SURGE...BUFKIT PROFILES PORTRAY THE MORE
ELEVATED PWAT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ELEVATED AND INSTABILITY PROFILES
SUPPORT MORE OF A LIGHTER RAIN/GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH CONVECTION
VERSUS A HEAVY RAIN THREAT ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
EVOLUTION IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

A DRYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PUNCH INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...THIS AS YET ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW TRANSITIONS OUT OF CENTRAL BRITCOL SOUTHEAST INTO THE
PACNW.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT
THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL RETURN TO A LIGHT SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
03-04Z AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MAINTAINED UNDER LARGELY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FIRE DISTRICT THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THIS WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL DIP TO FAIRLY LOW VALUES
WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SLOPE DRIVEN
AND LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS WILL KEEP CLEARING INDICES ON THE LOW SIDE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS MORE OF THE SOUTH FRIDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT
AGAIN SATURDAY. THIS BRINGS A THREAT OF ISOLATED MAINLY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEASTERN UTAH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ABOUT THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS MORE OF THE REGION AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE THREAT
OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY/MERRILL


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 292140
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
340 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A NORTHEAST SHIFT OF THIS
HIGH WILL ALLOW A MODEST SURGE OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY)...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE SRN PLAINS STATES WEST NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE NRN CA
COAST. MOISTURE IS POOLED TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE OVER AZ AND A
LITTLE OF THIS IS BEGINNING TO SEEP INTO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH AT MID
LEVELS.

THE AIRMASS WARMING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
WITH THE HIGH OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NWD THRU FRI AND MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEEP NORTHWARD MAINLY AT MID LEVELS WITH THE LOWER
LEVELS STAYING FAIRLY DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER FAR
SERN UT AS A SMALL LOW DRIFTS OUT OF AZ THRU THE RIDGE AND ACROSS
FAR SERN UT ON FRI.

THIS INCREASING MOISTURE WOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION TO
THE FAR SERN CWA THU AFTN AND ACROSS MORE OF THE SOUTH FRI. MOST OF
THESE STORMS WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING
BUT NOT MUCH RAIN. THE FAR SERN CWA COULD SEE WETTER STORMS WHERE
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE DEEPER.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z SATURDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING A NET NORTHEASTERLY SHIFT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SAID SHIFT
WILL ALLOW THE MORE MODEST SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY PINNED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE UT/AZ BORDER TO ADVECT NORTH/NORTHEAST AS
MID LEVEL STREAMLINES BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ORIENTED. INCREASING
SPREAD IN GUIDANCE DEVELOPS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY REGARDING
FORMATION AND EVOLUTION OF RETURN FLOW WAVES THAT WOULD ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THAT TIME. THE 12Z ECMWF BECAME QUITE
BULLISH WITH ONCE SUCH FEATURE OWING TO HIGHER AND MORE AREALLY
EXPANSIVE QPF DURING THAT TIME. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH REGARDING THIS
AND HAVE OPTED TO NOT CHANGE POPS OR TEMPS MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. THE EC SOLUTION WOULD BE BOTH WETTER AND MUCH COOLER COME
MONDAY.

REGARDING THE MOISTURE SURGE...BUFKIT PROFILES PORTRAY THE MORE
ELEVATED PWAT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ELEVATED AND INSTABILITY PROFILES
SUPPORT MORE OF A LIGHTER RAIN/GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH CONVECTION
VERSUS A HEAVY RAIN THREAT ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
EVOLUTION IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

A DRYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PUNCH INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...THIS AS YET ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW TRANSITIONS OUT OF CENTRAL BRITCOL SOUTHEAST INTO THE
PACNW.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT
THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL RETURN TO A LIGHT SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
03-04Z AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MAINTAINED UNDER LARGELY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FIRE DISTRICT THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THIS WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL DIP TO FAIRLY LOW VALUES
WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SLOPE DRIVEN
AND LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS WILL KEEP CLEARING INDICES ON THE LOW SIDE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS MORE OF THE SOUTH FRIDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT
AGAIN SATURDAY. THIS BRINGS A THREAT OF ISOLATED MAINLY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEASTERN UTAH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ABOUT THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS MORE OF THE REGION AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE THREAT
OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY/MERRILL


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 292140
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
340 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A NORTHEAST SHIFT OF THIS
HIGH WILL ALLOW A MODEST SURGE OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY)...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE SRN PLAINS STATES WEST NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE NRN CA
COAST. MOISTURE IS POOLED TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE OVER AZ AND A
LITTLE OF THIS IS BEGINNING TO SEEP INTO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH AT MID
LEVELS.

THE AIRMASS WARMING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
WITH THE HIGH OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NWD THRU FRI AND MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEEP NORTHWARD MAINLY AT MID LEVELS WITH THE LOWER
LEVELS STAYING FAIRLY DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER FAR
SERN UT AS A SMALL LOW DRIFTS OUT OF AZ THRU THE RIDGE AND ACROSS
FAR SERN UT ON FRI.

THIS INCREASING MOISTURE WOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION TO
THE FAR SERN CWA THU AFTN AND ACROSS MORE OF THE SOUTH FRI. MOST OF
THESE STORMS WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING
BUT NOT MUCH RAIN. THE FAR SERN CWA COULD SEE WETTER STORMS WHERE
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE DEEPER.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z SATURDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING A NET NORTHEASTERLY SHIFT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SAID SHIFT
WILL ALLOW THE MORE MODEST SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY PINNED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE UT/AZ BORDER TO ADVECT NORTH/NORTHEAST AS
MID LEVEL STREAMLINES BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ORIENTED. INCREASING
SPREAD IN GUIDANCE DEVELOPS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY REGARDING
FORMATION AND EVOLUTION OF RETURN FLOW WAVES THAT WOULD ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THAT TIME. THE 12Z ECMWF BECAME QUITE
BULLISH WITH ONCE SUCH FEATURE OWING TO HIGHER AND MORE AREALLY
EXPANSIVE QPF DURING THAT TIME. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH REGARDING THIS
AND HAVE OPTED TO NOT CHANGE POPS OR TEMPS MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. THE EC SOLUTION WOULD BE BOTH WETTER AND MUCH COOLER COME
MONDAY.

REGARDING THE MOISTURE SURGE...BUFKIT PROFILES PORTRAY THE MORE
ELEVATED PWAT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ELEVATED AND INSTABILITY PROFILES
SUPPORT MORE OF A LIGHTER RAIN/GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH CONVECTION
VERSUS A HEAVY RAIN THREAT ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
EVOLUTION IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

A DRYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PUNCH INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...THIS AS YET ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW TRANSITIONS OUT OF CENTRAL BRITCOL SOUTHEAST INTO THE
PACNW.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT
THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL RETURN TO A LIGHT SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
03-04Z AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MAINTAINED UNDER LARGELY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FIRE DISTRICT THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THIS WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL DIP TO FAIRLY LOW VALUES
WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SLOPE DRIVEN
AND LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS WILL KEEP CLEARING INDICES ON THE LOW SIDE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS MORE OF THE SOUTH FRIDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT
AGAIN SATURDAY. THIS BRINGS A THREAT OF ISOLATED MAINLY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEASTERN UTAH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ABOUT THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS MORE OF THE REGION AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE THREAT
OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY/MERRILL


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 292140
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
340 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A NORTHEAST SHIFT OF THIS
HIGH WILL ALLOW A MODEST SURGE OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY)...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE SRN PLAINS STATES WEST NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE NRN CA
COAST. MOISTURE IS POOLED TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE OVER AZ AND A
LITTLE OF THIS IS BEGINNING TO SEEP INTO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH AT MID
LEVELS.

THE AIRMASS WARMING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
WITH THE HIGH OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NWD THRU FRI AND MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEEP NORTHWARD MAINLY AT MID LEVELS WITH THE LOWER
LEVELS STAYING FAIRLY DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER FAR
SERN UT AS A SMALL LOW DRIFTS OUT OF AZ THRU THE RIDGE AND ACROSS
FAR SERN UT ON FRI.

THIS INCREASING MOISTURE WOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION TO
THE FAR SERN CWA THU AFTN AND ACROSS MORE OF THE SOUTH FRI. MOST OF
THESE STORMS WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING
BUT NOT MUCH RAIN. THE FAR SERN CWA COULD SEE WETTER STORMS WHERE
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE DEEPER.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z SATURDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING A NET NORTHEASTERLY SHIFT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SAID SHIFT
WILL ALLOW THE MORE MODEST SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY PINNED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE UT/AZ BORDER TO ADVECT NORTH/NORTHEAST AS
MID LEVEL STREAMLINES BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ORIENTED. INCREASING
SPREAD IN GUIDANCE DEVELOPS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY REGARDING
FORMATION AND EVOLUTION OF RETURN FLOW WAVES THAT WOULD ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THAT TIME. THE 12Z ECMWF BECAME QUITE
BULLISH WITH ONCE SUCH FEATURE OWING TO HIGHER AND MORE AREALLY
EXPANSIVE QPF DURING THAT TIME. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH REGARDING THIS
AND HAVE OPTED TO NOT CHANGE POPS OR TEMPS MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. THE EC SOLUTION WOULD BE BOTH WETTER AND MUCH COOLER COME
MONDAY.

REGARDING THE MOISTURE SURGE...BUFKIT PROFILES PORTRAY THE MORE
ELEVATED PWAT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ELEVATED AND INSTABILITY PROFILES
SUPPORT MORE OF A LIGHTER RAIN/GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH CONVECTION
VERSUS A HEAVY RAIN THREAT ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
EVOLUTION IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

A DRYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PUNCH INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...THIS AS YET ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW TRANSITIONS OUT OF CENTRAL BRITCOL SOUTHEAST INTO THE
PACNW.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT
THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL RETURN TO A LIGHT SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
03-04Z AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MAINTAINED UNDER LARGELY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FIRE DISTRICT THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THIS WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL DIP TO FAIRLY LOW VALUES
WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SLOPE DRIVEN
AND LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS WILL KEEP CLEARING INDICES ON THE LOW SIDE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS MORE OF THE SOUTH FRIDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT
AGAIN SATURDAY. THIS BRINGS A THREAT OF ISOLATED MAINLY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEASTERN UTAH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ABOUT THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS MORE OF THE REGION AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE THREAT
OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY/MERRILL


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 291522
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
922 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST A
LITTLE OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO START TO DRIFT
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS STATES WEST
NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE NRN CA COAST. MOISTURE IS POOLED TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE OVER AZ BUT WILL TEND TO MOVE WWD AS THE RIDGE
AXIS PREVENTS IT FROM GETTING VERY FAR NORTH.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE WARMING WITH THE HIGH OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
WILL BE WARMING TODAY THROUGH THU.

THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NWD THRU FRI AND
MOISTURE WILL SEEP NORTHWARD. THIS HAPPENS MAINLY ALOFT AS THE
LOWER LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS A NLY COMPONENT OR IS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING A SMALL LOW OVER AZ BY
TOMORROW MORNING THAT DRIFTS THRU THE RIDGE AND ACROSS FAR SERN UT
ON FRI. THIS WOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION TO THE SRN CWA
THU AFTN INTO FRI AND MAINLY THE SERN PORTION.

THE AREA THEN DRIES A LITTLE ON SAT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE CREEPING
UP ALONG THE NV BORDER.

NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT
AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT 17Z THEN BECOME PREVAILING
NORTHERLY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 290959
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
359 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE
THURSDAY AND THEN SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
SETTLES IN OVER NEW MEXICO AND OUR FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHERLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. 700MB
TEMPERATURES NEAR 9C THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 14C BY
THURSDAY EVENING. WHILE MAX TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY.

AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD...MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE DEPTH OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...MORE
THAN LIKELY INDICATING THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY CONVECTION WILL
BE MICROBURST WINDS RATHER THAN HEAVY RAIN. THE DEPTH OF THE
MOISTURE AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IMPROVE A BIT FRIDAY...BUT STILL
EXPECT THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH TO HEAD OFF MUCH OF A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SATURDAY)...ALTHOUGH PWS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTHWARD SATURDAY THE RIDGE AXIS AT MID
LEVELS REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD KEEP A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE INTO
SUNDAY ACROSS THE WASATCH MOUNTAINS AND FRONT AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST
WYOMING. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN
THESE AREAS AS MOISTURE NOT SHOWING UP BELOW 500 MB AND LIFTED
INDICES REMAINING POSITIVE AS WELL. LEFT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE UINTAS FOR SUNDAY BUT NOT VERY CONFIDENT THAT ANYTHING WILL
EVEN HAPPEN THERE. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA THE PWS COME UP OVER 0.75 OF AN INCH AND LIFTED INDICES LOWER
BELOW 1. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE RIDGE IS STILL QUITE STRONG WITH
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ANY DISTURBANCES TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF MINIMAL POPS LOOKS REASONABLE. THE LOWER
LEVELS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE QUITE DRY SO THERE MAY BE MORE DRY
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE VALLEYS THEN ANY THREAT OF
RAIN.

THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WYOMING MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BUT ONCE
AGAIN NOT IMPRESSED WITH THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AS TIME HEIGHTS
SHOWING MOST MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO THE HIGHER PWS IS AT HIGH
LEVELS AND NOT AT THE SURFACE. THEREFORE KEEPING THE POPS RATHER
LOW DURING THIS PERIOD WELL JUSTIFIED. HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AS A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME AS H7
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT +16 DEGREES CELSIUS OR HIGHER ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY FACTOR
THEY MAY INHIBIT TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR POTENTIAL WILL
BE CLOUD COVER OR SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO MOST
OF THE DISTRICT...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
THURSDAY...SLOWLY BUILDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...WHICH MAY PROMOTE
THE THREAT OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN UTAH FRIDAY. THIS THREAT
WILL ENTIRELY DEPEND ON THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE SURGE AND IS
SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT
AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT 16Z. EXPECT THE NORTHERLY
GRADIENT TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NORTHERLY WINDS ONCE MORE
AFTER 17Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUTHWOLF/KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 290959
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
359 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE
THURSDAY AND THEN SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
SETTLES IN OVER NEW MEXICO AND OUR FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHERLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. 700MB
TEMPERATURES NEAR 9C THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 14C BY
THURSDAY EVENING. WHILE MAX TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY.

AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD...MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE DEPTH OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...MORE
THAN LIKELY INDICATING THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY CONVECTION WILL
BE MICROBURST WINDS RATHER THAN HEAVY RAIN. THE DEPTH OF THE
MOISTURE AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IMPROVE A BIT FRIDAY...BUT STILL
EXPECT THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH TO HEAD OFF MUCH OF A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SATURDAY)...ALTHOUGH PWS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTHWARD SATURDAY THE RIDGE AXIS AT MID
LEVELS REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD KEEP A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE INTO
SUNDAY ACROSS THE WASATCH MOUNTAINS AND FRONT AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST
WYOMING. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN
THESE AREAS AS MOISTURE NOT SHOWING UP BELOW 500 MB AND LIFTED
INDICES REMAINING POSITIVE AS WELL. LEFT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE UINTAS FOR SUNDAY BUT NOT VERY CONFIDENT THAT ANYTHING WILL
EVEN HAPPEN THERE. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA THE PWS COME UP OVER 0.75 OF AN INCH AND LIFTED INDICES LOWER
BELOW 1. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE RIDGE IS STILL QUITE STRONG WITH
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ANY DISTURBANCES TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF MINIMAL POPS LOOKS REASONABLE. THE LOWER
LEVELS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE QUITE DRY SO THERE MAY BE MORE DRY
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE VALLEYS THEN ANY THREAT OF
RAIN.

THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WYOMING MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BUT ONCE
AGAIN NOT IMPRESSED WITH THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AS TIME HEIGHTS
SHOWING MOST MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO THE HIGHER PWS IS AT HIGH
LEVELS AND NOT AT THE SURFACE. THEREFORE KEEPING THE POPS RATHER
LOW DURING THIS PERIOD WELL JUSTIFIED. HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AS A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME AS H7
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT +16 DEGREES CELSIUS OR HIGHER ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY FACTOR
THEY MAY INHIBIT TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR POTENTIAL WILL
BE CLOUD COVER OR SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO MOST
OF THE DISTRICT...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
THURSDAY...SLOWLY BUILDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...WHICH MAY PROMOTE
THE THREAT OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN UTAH FRIDAY. THIS THREAT
WILL ENTIRELY DEPEND ON THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE SURGE AND IS
SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT
AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT 16Z. EXPECT THE NORTHERLY
GRADIENT TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NORTHERLY WINDS ONCE MORE
AFTER 17Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUTHWOLF/KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 290311
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
911 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE THIS WEEK AND THEN SPREAD
SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A COOL...DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS RESIDES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MID LEVEL
RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO
EXPAND WESTWARD...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION
WITH MAX TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS THIS RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN UT DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WEEK. GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TONIGHT AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH NORTH WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH
BETWEEN 05 AND 06Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 290311
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
911 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE THIS WEEK AND THEN SPREAD
SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A COOL...DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS RESIDES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MID LEVEL
RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO
EXPAND WESTWARD...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION
WITH MAX TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS THIS RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN UT DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WEEK. GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TONIGHT AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH NORTH WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH
BETWEEN 05 AND 06Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 290311
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
911 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE THIS WEEK AND THEN SPREAD
SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A COOL...DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS RESIDES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MID LEVEL
RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO
EXPAND WESTWARD...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION
WITH MAX TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS THIS RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN UT DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WEEK. GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TONIGHT AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH NORTH WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH
BETWEEN 05 AND 06Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 290311
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
911 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE THIS WEEK AND THEN SPREAD
SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A COOL...DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS RESIDES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MID LEVEL
RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO
EXPAND WESTWARD...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION
WITH MAX TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS THIS RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN UT DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WEEK. GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TONIGHT AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH NORTH WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH
BETWEEN 05 AND 06Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 282150
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
350 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE THIS WEEK AND THEN SPREAD
SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)...HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPANDS NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN. THE AXIS OF THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH WEST
ACROSS THE UT/AZ BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY...ESSENTIALLY PINNING THE
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THAT TIME. DUE TO
THIS DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS SAID...A SLIGHT NORTHERLY SHIFT OF THIS AXIS WILL ALLOW
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SEEP INTO THE UT/AZ BORDER
REGION THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED
CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS SUCH...BUT EXPECT PRIMARILY TERRAIN
BASED CU AND MINIMAL PRECIP THREATS WILL BE THE OUTCOME.

H7 TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB COINCIDENT WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS
ALLOWING A MARKED WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK. SAID TEMPS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO CLIMB FROM VALUES NEAR +4C /12Z THIS MORNING/ TO +14
C BY 00Z FRIDAY ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO APPROACH MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z FRI)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE AXIS OF THE LARGE
E-W ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS OVER NORTHERN UT BY FRI MORNING
ALLOWING THE MOISTURE IN PLACE TO THE SOUTH OF IT TO SPREAD NORTH
INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS
THE SOUTH FRI AFTN.

THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE CIRCULAR OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THE CENTER
REMAINS TOO CLOSE TO UT TO ALLOW DEEP SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS
PREVENTS A STRONG MOISTURE SURGE BUT THE HIGH DOES GRADUALLY FILL
WITH MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASE OF TERRAIN BASED
CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE LIGHT FLOW REGIME UNDER THE HIGH WILL
KEEP CELLS FROM DRIFTING VERY FAR FROM WHERE THEY FORM. EXPECT A
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AIRMASS TO BE IN PLACE BY MON TO WARRANT LOW
POPS AREA WIDE EVEN WITH THE LIGHT FLOW.

WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OVERHEAD FRI MOST VALLEY TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AND WILL REMAIN VERY WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE AREAS MORE PRONE TO CONVECTION SHOULD LEVEL OFF SAT
AND MAY EVEN COOL A BIT SUN. EXPECT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE MOISTURE INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AFTER 05-06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE COOL AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL
GRADUALLY WARM TOMORROW...WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND
EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DISTRICT AT THIS TIME
WILL MAINTAIN LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT
MOISTURE PINNED SOUTH OF THE DISTRICT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING A MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO
DEVELOP. DO NOT FORESEE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE
TO WIND OR LOW RH...BUT ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING MAY BECOME A THREAT
AS THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL/WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 282150
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
350 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE THIS WEEK AND THEN SPREAD
SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)...HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPANDS NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN. THE AXIS OF THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH WEST
ACROSS THE UT/AZ BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY...ESSENTIALLY PINNING THE
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THAT TIME. DUE TO
THIS DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS SAID...A SLIGHT NORTHERLY SHIFT OF THIS AXIS WILL ALLOW
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SEEP INTO THE UT/AZ BORDER
REGION THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED
CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS SUCH...BUT EXPECT PRIMARILY TERRAIN
BASED CU AND MINIMAL PRECIP THREATS WILL BE THE OUTCOME.

H7 TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB COINCIDENT WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS
ALLOWING A MARKED WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK. SAID TEMPS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO CLIMB FROM VALUES NEAR +4C /12Z THIS MORNING/ TO +14
C BY 00Z FRIDAY ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO APPROACH MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z FRI)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE AXIS OF THE LARGE
E-W ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS OVER NORTHERN UT BY FRI MORNING
ALLOWING THE MOISTURE IN PLACE TO THE SOUTH OF IT TO SPREAD NORTH
INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS
THE SOUTH FRI AFTN.

THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE CIRCULAR OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THE CENTER
REMAINS TOO CLOSE TO UT TO ALLOW DEEP SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS
PREVENTS A STRONG MOISTURE SURGE BUT THE HIGH DOES GRADUALLY FILL
WITH MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASE OF TERRAIN BASED
CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE LIGHT FLOW REGIME UNDER THE HIGH WILL
KEEP CELLS FROM DRIFTING VERY FAR FROM WHERE THEY FORM. EXPECT A
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AIRMASS TO BE IN PLACE BY MON TO WARRANT LOW
POPS AREA WIDE EVEN WITH THE LIGHT FLOW.

WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OVERHEAD FRI MOST VALLEY TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AND WILL REMAIN VERY WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE AREAS MORE PRONE TO CONVECTION SHOULD LEVEL OFF SAT
AND MAY EVEN COOL A BIT SUN. EXPECT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE MOISTURE INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AFTER 05-06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE COOL AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL
GRADUALLY WARM TOMORROW...WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND
EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DISTRICT AT THIS TIME
WILL MAINTAIN LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT
MOISTURE PINNED SOUTH OF THE DISTRICT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING A MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO
DEVELOP. DO NOT FORESEE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE
TO WIND OR LOW RH...BUT ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING MAY BECOME A THREAT
AS THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL/WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 282150
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
350 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE THIS WEEK AND THEN SPREAD
SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)...HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPANDS NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN. THE AXIS OF THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH WEST
ACROSS THE UT/AZ BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY...ESSENTIALLY PINNING THE
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THAT TIME. DUE TO
THIS DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS SAID...A SLIGHT NORTHERLY SHIFT OF THIS AXIS WILL ALLOW
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SEEP INTO THE UT/AZ BORDER
REGION THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED
CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS SUCH...BUT EXPECT PRIMARILY TERRAIN
BASED CU AND MINIMAL PRECIP THREATS WILL BE THE OUTCOME.

H7 TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB COINCIDENT WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS
ALLOWING A MARKED WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK. SAID TEMPS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO CLIMB FROM VALUES NEAR +4C /12Z THIS MORNING/ TO +14
C BY 00Z FRIDAY ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO APPROACH MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z FRI)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE AXIS OF THE LARGE
E-W ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS OVER NORTHERN UT BY FRI MORNING
ALLOWING THE MOISTURE IN PLACE TO THE SOUTH OF IT TO SPREAD NORTH
INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS
THE SOUTH FRI AFTN.

THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE CIRCULAR OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THE CENTER
REMAINS TOO CLOSE TO UT TO ALLOW DEEP SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS
PREVENTS A STRONG MOISTURE SURGE BUT THE HIGH DOES GRADUALLY FILL
WITH MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASE OF TERRAIN BASED
CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE LIGHT FLOW REGIME UNDER THE HIGH WILL
KEEP CELLS FROM DRIFTING VERY FAR FROM WHERE THEY FORM. EXPECT A
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AIRMASS TO BE IN PLACE BY MON TO WARRANT LOW
POPS AREA WIDE EVEN WITH THE LIGHT FLOW.

WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OVERHEAD FRI MOST VALLEY TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AND WILL REMAIN VERY WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE AREAS MORE PRONE TO CONVECTION SHOULD LEVEL OFF SAT
AND MAY EVEN COOL A BIT SUN. EXPECT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE MOISTURE INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AFTER 05-06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE COOL AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL
GRADUALLY WARM TOMORROW...WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND
EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DISTRICT AT THIS TIME
WILL MAINTAIN LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT
MOISTURE PINNED SOUTH OF THE DISTRICT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING A MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO
DEVELOP. DO NOT FORESEE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE
TO WIND OR LOW RH...BUT ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING MAY BECOME A THREAT
AS THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL/WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 282150
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
350 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE THIS WEEK AND THEN SPREAD
SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)...HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPANDS NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN. THE AXIS OF THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH WEST
ACROSS THE UT/AZ BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY...ESSENTIALLY PINNING THE
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THAT TIME. DUE TO
THIS DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS SAID...A SLIGHT NORTHERLY SHIFT OF THIS AXIS WILL ALLOW
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SEEP INTO THE UT/AZ BORDER
REGION THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED
CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS SUCH...BUT EXPECT PRIMARILY TERRAIN
BASED CU AND MINIMAL PRECIP THREATS WILL BE THE OUTCOME.

H7 TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB COINCIDENT WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS
ALLOWING A MARKED WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK. SAID TEMPS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO CLIMB FROM VALUES NEAR +4C /12Z THIS MORNING/ TO +14
C BY 00Z FRIDAY ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO APPROACH MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z FRI)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE AXIS OF THE LARGE
E-W ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS OVER NORTHERN UT BY FRI MORNING
ALLOWING THE MOISTURE IN PLACE TO THE SOUTH OF IT TO SPREAD NORTH
INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS
THE SOUTH FRI AFTN.

THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE CIRCULAR OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THE CENTER
REMAINS TOO CLOSE TO UT TO ALLOW DEEP SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS
PREVENTS A STRONG MOISTURE SURGE BUT THE HIGH DOES GRADUALLY FILL
WITH MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASE OF TERRAIN BASED
CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE LIGHT FLOW REGIME UNDER THE HIGH WILL
KEEP CELLS FROM DRIFTING VERY FAR FROM WHERE THEY FORM. EXPECT A
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AIRMASS TO BE IN PLACE BY MON TO WARRANT LOW
POPS AREA WIDE EVEN WITH THE LIGHT FLOW.

WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OVERHEAD FRI MOST VALLEY TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AND WILL REMAIN VERY WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE AREAS MORE PRONE TO CONVECTION SHOULD LEVEL OFF SAT
AND MAY EVEN COOL A BIT SUN. EXPECT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE MOISTURE INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AFTER 05-06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE COOL AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL
GRADUALLY WARM TOMORROW...WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND
EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DISTRICT AT THIS TIME
WILL MAINTAIN LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT
MOISTURE PINNED SOUTH OF THE DISTRICT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING A MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO
DEVELOP. DO NOT FORESEE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE
TO WIND OR LOW RH...BUT ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING MAY BECOME A THREAT
AS THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL/WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 282150
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
350 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE THIS WEEK AND THEN SPREAD
SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)...HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPANDS NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN. THE AXIS OF THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH WEST
ACROSS THE UT/AZ BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY...ESSENTIALLY PINNING THE
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THAT TIME. DUE TO
THIS DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS SAID...A SLIGHT NORTHERLY SHIFT OF THIS AXIS WILL ALLOW
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SEEP INTO THE UT/AZ BORDER
REGION THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED
CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS SUCH...BUT EXPECT PRIMARILY TERRAIN
BASED CU AND MINIMAL PRECIP THREATS WILL BE THE OUTCOME.

H7 TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB COINCIDENT WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS
ALLOWING A MARKED WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK. SAID TEMPS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO CLIMB FROM VALUES NEAR +4C /12Z THIS MORNING/ TO +14
C BY 00Z FRIDAY ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO APPROACH MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z FRI)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE AXIS OF THE LARGE
E-W ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS OVER NORTHERN UT BY FRI MORNING
ALLOWING THE MOISTURE IN PLACE TO THE SOUTH OF IT TO SPREAD NORTH
INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS
THE SOUTH FRI AFTN.

THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE CIRCULAR OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THE CENTER
REMAINS TOO CLOSE TO UT TO ALLOW DEEP SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS
PREVENTS A STRONG MOISTURE SURGE BUT THE HIGH DOES GRADUALLY FILL
WITH MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASE OF TERRAIN BASED
CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE LIGHT FLOW REGIME UNDER THE HIGH WILL
KEEP CELLS FROM DRIFTING VERY FAR FROM WHERE THEY FORM. EXPECT A
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AIRMASS TO BE IN PLACE BY MON TO WARRANT LOW
POPS AREA WIDE EVEN WITH THE LIGHT FLOW.

WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OVERHEAD FRI MOST VALLEY TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AND WILL REMAIN VERY WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE AREAS MORE PRONE TO CONVECTION SHOULD LEVEL OFF SAT
AND MAY EVEN COOL A BIT SUN. EXPECT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE MOISTURE INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AFTER 05-06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE COOL AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL
GRADUALLY WARM TOMORROW...WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND
EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DISTRICT AT THIS TIME
WILL MAINTAIN LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT
MOISTURE PINNED SOUTH OF THE DISTRICT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING A MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO
DEVELOP. DO NOT FORESEE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE
TO WIND OR LOW RH...BUT ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING MAY BECOME A THREAT
AS THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL/WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 282150
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
350 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE THIS WEEK AND THEN SPREAD
SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)...HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPANDS NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN. THE AXIS OF THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH WEST
ACROSS THE UT/AZ BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY...ESSENTIALLY PINNING THE
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THAT TIME. DUE TO
THIS DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS SAID...A SLIGHT NORTHERLY SHIFT OF THIS AXIS WILL ALLOW
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SEEP INTO THE UT/AZ BORDER
REGION THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED
CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS SUCH...BUT EXPECT PRIMARILY TERRAIN
BASED CU AND MINIMAL PRECIP THREATS WILL BE THE OUTCOME.

H7 TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB COINCIDENT WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS
ALLOWING A MARKED WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK. SAID TEMPS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO CLIMB FROM VALUES NEAR +4C /12Z THIS MORNING/ TO +14
C BY 00Z FRIDAY ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO APPROACH MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z FRI)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE AXIS OF THE LARGE
E-W ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS OVER NORTHERN UT BY FRI MORNING
ALLOWING THE MOISTURE IN PLACE TO THE SOUTH OF IT TO SPREAD NORTH
INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS
THE SOUTH FRI AFTN.

THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE CIRCULAR OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THE CENTER
REMAINS TOO CLOSE TO UT TO ALLOW DEEP SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS
PREVENTS A STRONG MOISTURE SURGE BUT THE HIGH DOES GRADUALLY FILL
WITH MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASE OF TERRAIN BASED
CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE LIGHT FLOW REGIME UNDER THE HIGH WILL
KEEP CELLS FROM DRIFTING VERY FAR FROM WHERE THEY FORM. EXPECT A
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AIRMASS TO BE IN PLACE BY MON TO WARRANT LOW
POPS AREA WIDE EVEN WITH THE LIGHT FLOW.

WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OVERHEAD FRI MOST VALLEY TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AND WILL REMAIN VERY WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE AREAS MORE PRONE TO CONVECTION SHOULD LEVEL OFF SAT
AND MAY EVEN COOL A BIT SUN. EXPECT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE MOISTURE INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AFTER 05-06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE COOL AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL
GRADUALLY WARM TOMORROW...WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND
EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DISTRICT AT THIS TIME
WILL MAINTAIN LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT
MOISTURE PINNED SOUTH OF THE DISTRICT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING A MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO
DEVELOP. DO NOT FORESEE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE
TO WIND OR LOW RH...BUT ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING MAY BECOME A THREAT
AS THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL/WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 281532
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
932 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK WILL GIVE
WAY TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE THIS WEEK AND THEN SPREAD
SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH UTAH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HEIGHTS ARE BEGINNING TO REBOUND IN WAKE OF
YESTERDAYS TROUGH PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...BUT
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE NORM TODAY. H7
TEMPS PER 12Z KSLC RAOB NEAR +4C THIS AM INDICATIVE OF THE COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL COINCIDE WITH
BUILDING HEIGHTS TODAY...WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S MOST VALLEY LOCALES DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BULGE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
MID/LATE WEEK ALLOWING A CONTINUATION OF BUILDING HEIGHTS AND WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THAT TIME...THIS ALLOWING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND TO ENSUE. H7 TEMPS AT KSLC PROGGED TO CLIMB BACK UP TO NEAR
+15C BY FRIDAY ALLOWING A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE
WEEK ON.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK PINNING THE BULK OF HIGHER
PWAT SOUTH AND WEST AS SUCH. WILL LIKELY SEE A GRADUAL INFUSION OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH BEGINNING TOMORROW...BUT
LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
TO GENERALLY TERRAIN BASED CU. A NORTHEAST SHIFT OF THIS AXIS LATE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW FOR A NET INCREASE OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE/CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THAT TIME...AND THIS
REMAINS THE PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM TO FOCUS ON THIS SHIFT.

NO UPDATES MADE OR PLANNED. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW...

.LONG TERM (AFTER 0000 UTC THURSDAY)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES LATE THIS WEEK EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BENEATH THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK TO NEAR
NORMAL BEFORE LEVELING OFF FOR THE WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO VACILLATE ON THE RETURN OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WITH
RESPECT TO HOW QUICKLY THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH THROUGH UTAH.
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO RETURN TO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH ON THURSDAY AND WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN PLACE SLIGHT CHANCE STORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS STILL LOOKS GOOD. FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION SLOWLY EXPANDS NORTH EACH DAY UNTIL SLIGHT
CHANCE...OR CHANCE POPS...ARE NEEDED STATEWIDE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE SLOW RETURN OCCURS SINCE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW NEVER REALLY
DEVELOPS OVER AZ AND UT. INSTEAD MOISTURE SEEPS NORTHWEST INTO CA
AND NV AND THEN EVENTUALLY FILLS IN THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE PINNING DOWN THE TIMING OF THE
MOISTURE RETURN AND PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS. IF THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION....SETTING UP SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER UTAH...THE
MOISTURE COULD RETURN NORTH MUCH MORE QUICKLY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...HAVE CONTINUED
IDEA OF SLOW NORTHWARD EXPANSION FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...NO OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS TO NOTE FOR KSLC
THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
AFTER 05/06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF MONDAYS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE DISTRICT TUESDAY.
GRADUAL WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION NORTHWARD...REACHING PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL/KRUSE


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 281532
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
932 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK WILL GIVE
WAY TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE THIS WEEK AND THEN SPREAD
SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH UTAH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HEIGHTS ARE BEGINNING TO REBOUND IN WAKE OF
YESTERDAYS TROUGH PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...BUT
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE NORM TODAY. H7
TEMPS PER 12Z KSLC RAOB NEAR +4C THIS AM INDICATIVE OF THE COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL COINCIDE WITH
BUILDING HEIGHTS TODAY...WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S MOST VALLEY LOCALES DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BULGE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
MID/LATE WEEK ALLOWING A CONTINUATION OF BUILDING HEIGHTS AND WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THAT TIME...THIS ALLOWING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND TO ENSUE. H7 TEMPS AT KSLC PROGGED TO CLIMB BACK UP TO NEAR
+15C BY FRIDAY ALLOWING A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE
WEEK ON.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK PINNING THE BULK OF HIGHER
PWAT SOUTH AND WEST AS SUCH. WILL LIKELY SEE A GRADUAL INFUSION OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH BEGINNING TOMORROW...BUT
LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
TO GENERALLY TERRAIN BASED CU. A NORTHEAST SHIFT OF THIS AXIS LATE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW FOR A NET INCREASE OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE/CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THAT TIME...AND THIS
REMAINS THE PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM TO FOCUS ON THIS SHIFT.

NO UPDATES MADE OR PLANNED. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW...

.LONG TERM (AFTER 0000 UTC THURSDAY)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES LATE THIS WEEK EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BENEATH THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK TO NEAR
NORMAL BEFORE LEVELING OFF FOR THE WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO VACILLATE ON THE RETURN OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WITH
RESPECT TO HOW QUICKLY THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH THROUGH UTAH.
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO RETURN TO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH ON THURSDAY AND WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN PLACE SLIGHT CHANCE STORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS STILL LOOKS GOOD. FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION SLOWLY EXPANDS NORTH EACH DAY UNTIL SLIGHT
CHANCE...OR CHANCE POPS...ARE NEEDED STATEWIDE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE SLOW RETURN OCCURS SINCE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW NEVER REALLY
DEVELOPS OVER AZ AND UT. INSTEAD MOISTURE SEEPS NORTHWEST INTO CA
AND NV AND THEN EVENTUALLY FILLS IN THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE PINNING DOWN THE TIMING OF THE
MOISTURE RETURN AND PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS. IF THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION....SETTING UP SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER UTAH...THE
MOISTURE COULD RETURN NORTH MUCH MORE QUICKLY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...HAVE CONTINUED
IDEA OF SLOW NORTHWARD EXPANSION FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...NO OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS TO NOTE FOR KSLC
THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
AFTER 05/06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF MONDAYS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE DISTRICT TUESDAY.
GRADUAL WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION NORTHWARD...REACHING PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL/KRUSE


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 281532
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
932 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK WILL GIVE
WAY TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE THIS WEEK AND THEN SPREAD
SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH UTAH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HEIGHTS ARE BEGINNING TO REBOUND IN WAKE OF
YESTERDAYS TROUGH PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...BUT
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE NORM TODAY. H7
TEMPS PER 12Z KSLC RAOB NEAR +4C THIS AM INDICATIVE OF THE COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL COINCIDE WITH
BUILDING HEIGHTS TODAY...WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S MOST VALLEY LOCALES DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BULGE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
MID/LATE WEEK ALLOWING A CONTINUATION OF BUILDING HEIGHTS AND WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THAT TIME...THIS ALLOWING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND TO ENSUE. H7 TEMPS AT KSLC PROGGED TO CLIMB BACK UP TO NEAR
+15C BY FRIDAY ALLOWING A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE
WEEK ON.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK PINNING THE BULK OF HIGHER
PWAT SOUTH AND WEST AS SUCH. WILL LIKELY SEE A GRADUAL INFUSION OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH BEGINNING TOMORROW...BUT
LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
TO GENERALLY TERRAIN BASED CU. A NORTHEAST SHIFT OF THIS AXIS LATE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW FOR A NET INCREASE OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE/CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THAT TIME...AND THIS
REMAINS THE PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM TO FOCUS ON THIS SHIFT.

NO UPDATES MADE OR PLANNED. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW...

.LONG TERM (AFTER 0000 UTC THURSDAY)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES LATE THIS WEEK EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BENEATH THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK TO NEAR
NORMAL BEFORE LEVELING OFF FOR THE WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO VACILLATE ON THE RETURN OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WITH
RESPECT TO HOW QUICKLY THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH THROUGH UTAH.
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO RETURN TO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH ON THURSDAY AND WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN PLACE SLIGHT CHANCE STORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS STILL LOOKS GOOD. FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION SLOWLY EXPANDS NORTH EACH DAY UNTIL SLIGHT
CHANCE...OR CHANCE POPS...ARE NEEDED STATEWIDE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE SLOW RETURN OCCURS SINCE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW NEVER REALLY
DEVELOPS OVER AZ AND UT. INSTEAD MOISTURE SEEPS NORTHWEST INTO CA
AND NV AND THEN EVENTUALLY FILLS IN THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE PINNING DOWN THE TIMING OF THE
MOISTURE RETURN AND PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS. IF THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION....SETTING UP SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER UTAH...THE
MOISTURE COULD RETURN NORTH MUCH MORE QUICKLY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...HAVE CONTINUED
IDEA OF SLOW NORTHWARD EXPANSION FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...NO OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS TO NOTE FOR KSLC
THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
AFTER 05/06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF MONDAYS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE DISTRICT TUESDAY.
GRADUAL WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION NORTHWARD...REACHING PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL/KRUSE


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 281532
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
932 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK WILL GIVE
WAY TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE THIS WEEK AND THEN SPREAD
SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH UTAH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HEIGHTS ARE BEGINNING TO REBOUND IN WAKE OF
YESTERDAYS TROUGH PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...BUT
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE NORM TODAY. H7
TEMPS PER 12Z KSLC RAOB NEAR +4C THIS AM INDICATIVE OF THE COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL COINCIDE WITH
BUILDING HEIGHTS TODAY...WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S MOST VALLEY LOCALES DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BULGE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
MID/LATE WEEK ALLOWING A CONTINUATION OF BUILDING HEIGHTS AND WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THAT TIME...THIS ALLOWING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND TO ENSUE. H7 TEMPS AT KSLC PROGGED TO CLIMB BACK UP TO NEAR
+15C BY FRIDAY ALLOWING A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE
WEEK ON.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK PINNING THE BULK OF HIGHER
PWAT SOUTH AND WEST AS SUCH. WILL LIKELY SEE A GRADUAL INFUSION OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH BEGINNING TOMORROW...BUT
LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
TO GENERALLY TERRAIN BASED CU. A NORTHEAST SHIFT OF THIS AXIS LATE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW FOR A NET INCREASE OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE/CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THAT TIME...AND THIS
REMAINS THE PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM TO FOCUS ON THIS SHIFT.

NO UPDATES MADE OR PLANNED. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW...

.LONG TERM (AFTER 0000 UTC THURSDAY)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES LATE THIS WEEK EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BENEATH THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK TO NEAR
NORMAL BEFORE LEVELING OFF FOR THE WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO VACILLATE ON THE RETURN OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WITH
RESPECT TO HOW QUICKLY THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH THROUGH UTAH.
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO RETURN TO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH ON THURSDAY AND WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN PLACE SLIGHT CHANCE STORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS STILL LOOKS GOOD. FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION SLOWLY EXPANDS NORTH EACH DAY UNTIL SLIGHT
CHANCE...OR CHANCE POPS...ARE NEEDED STATEWIDE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE SLOW RETURN OCCURS SINCE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW NEVER REALLY
DEVELOPS OVER AZ AND UT. INSTEAD MOISTURE SEEPS NORTHWEST INTO CA
AND NV AND THEN EVENTUALLY FILLS IN THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE PINNING DOWN THE TIMING OF THE
MOISTURE RETURN AND PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS. IF THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION....SETTING UP SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER UTAH...THE
MOISTURE COULD RETURN NORTH MUCH MORE QUICKLY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...HAVE CONTINUED
IDEA OF SLOW NORTHWARD EXPANSION FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...NO OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS TO NOTE FOR KSLC
THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
AFTER 05/06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF MONDAYS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE DISTRICT TUESDAY.
GRADUAL WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION NORTHWARD...REACHING PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL/KRUSE


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 281024
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
424 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK WILL GIVE
WAY TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE THIS WEEK AND THEN SPREAD
SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH UTAH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 0000 UTC THURSDAY)...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE STATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WILL BRING WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER A FEW NEAR RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...MOST
NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A DECENT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT THE MOISTURE INCREASE LOOKS
TOO SHALLOW COMBINED WITH A LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN WEAK CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 0000 UTC THURSDAY)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES LATE THIS WEEK EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BENEATH THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK TO NEAR
NORMAL BEFORE LEVELING OFF FOR THE WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO VACILLATE ON THE RETURN OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WITH
RESPECT TO HOW QUICKLY THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH THROUGH UTAH.
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO RETURN TO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH ON THURSDAY AND WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN PLACE SLIGHT CHANCE STORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS STILL LOOKS GOOD. FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION SLOWLY EXPANDS NORTH EACH DAY UNTIL SLIGHT
CHANCE...OR CHANCE POPS...ARE NEEDED STATEWIDE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE SLOW RETURN OCCURS SINCE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW NEVER REALLY
DEVELOPS OVER AZ AND UT. INSTEAD MOISTURE SEEPS NORTHWEST INTO CA
AND NV AND THEN EVENTUALLY FILLS IN THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE PINNING DOWN THE TIMING OF THE
MOISTURE RETURN AND PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS. IF THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION....SETTING UP SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER UTAH...THE
MOISTURE COULD RETURN NORTH MUCH MORE QUICKLY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...HAVE CONTINUED
IDEA OF SLOW NORTHWARD EXPANSION FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT
AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT 13-15Z. EXPECT THE NORTHERLY
GRADIENT TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NORTHERLY WINDS ONCE MORE
AFTER 15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF MONDAYS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE DISTRICT TUESDAY.
GRADUAL WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION NORTHWARD...REACHING PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

KRUSE/GRAHAM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 281024
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
424 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK WILL GIVE
WAY TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE THIS WEEK AND THEN SPREAD
SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH UTAH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 0000 UTC THURSDAY)...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE STATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WILL BRING WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER A FEW NEAR RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...MOST
NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A DECENT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT THE MOISTURE INCREASE LOOKS
TOO SHALLOW COMBINED WITH A LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN WEAK CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 0000 UTC THURSDAY)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES LATE THIS WEEK EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BENEATH THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK TO NEAR
NORMAL BEFORE LEVELING OFF FOR THE WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO VACILLATE ON THE RETURN OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WITH
RESPECT TO HOW QUICKLY THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH THROUGH UTAH.
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO RETURN TO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH ON THURSDAY AND WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN PLACE SLIGHT CHANCE STORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS STILL LOOKS GOOD. FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION SLOWLY EXPANDS NORTH EACH DAY UNTIL SLIGHT
CHANCE...OR CHANCE POPS...ARE NEEDED STATEWIDE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE SLOW RETURN OCCURS SINCE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW NEVER REALLY
DEVELOPS OVER AZ AND UT. INSTEAD MOISTURE SEEPS NORTHWEST INTO CA
AND NV AND THEN EVENTUALLY FILLS IN THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE PINNING DOWN THE TIMING OF THE
MOISTURE RETURN AND PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS. IF THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION....SETTING UP SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER UTAH...THE
MOISTURE COULD RETURN NORTH MUCH MORE QUICKLY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...HAVE CONTINUED
IDEA OF SLOW NORTHWARD EXPANSION FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT
AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT 13-15Z. EXPECT THE NORTHERLY
GRADIENT TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NORTHERLY WINDS ONCE MORE
AFTER 15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF MONDAYS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE DISTRICT TUESDAY.
GRADUAL WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION NORTHWARD...REACHING PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

KRUSE/GRAHAM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 281024
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
424 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK WILL GIVE
WAY TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE THIS WEEK AND THEN SPREAD
SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH UTAH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 0000 UTC THURSDAY)...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE STATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WILL BRING WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER A FEW NEAR RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...MOST
NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A DECENT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT THE MOISTURE INCREASE LOOKS
TOO SHALLOW COMBINED WITH A LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN WEAK CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 0000 UTC THURSDAY)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES LATE THIS WEEK EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BENEATH THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK TO NEAR
NORMAL BEFORE LEVELING OFF FOR THE WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO VACILLATE ON THE RETURN OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WITH
RESPECT TO HOW QUICKLY THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH THROUGH UTAH.
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO RETURN TO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH ON THURSDAY AND WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN PLACE SLIGHT CHANCE STORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS STILL LOOKS GOOD. FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION SLOWLY EXPANDS NORTH EACH DAY UNTIL SLIGHT
CHANCE...OR CHANCE POPS...ARE NEEDED STATEWIDE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE SLOW RETURN OCCURS SINCE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW NEVER REALLY
DEVELOPS OVER AZ AND UT. INSTEAD MOISTURE SEEPS NORTHWEST INTO CA
AND NV AND THEN EVENTUALLY FILLS IN THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE PINNING DOWN THE TIMING OF THE
MOISTURE RETURN AND PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS. IF THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION....SETTING UP SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER UTAH...THE
MOISTURE COULD RETURN NORTH MUCH MORE QUICKLY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...HAVE CONTINUED
IDEA OF SLOW NORTHWARD EXPANSION FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT
AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT 13-15Z. EXPECT THE NORTHERLY
GRADIENT TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NORTHERLY WINDS ONCE MORE
AFTER 15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF MONDAYS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE DISTRICT TUESDAY.
GRADUAL WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION NORTHWARD...REACHING PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

KRUSE/GRAHAM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 281024
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
424 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK WILL GIVE
WAY TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE THIS WEEK AND THEN SPREAD
SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH UTAH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 0000 UTC THURSDAY)...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE STATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WILL BRING WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER A FEW NEAR RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...MOST
NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A DECENT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT THE MOISTURE INCREASE LOOKS
TOO SHALLOW COMBINED WITH A LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN WEAK CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 0000 UTC THURSDAY)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES LATE THIS WEEK EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BENEATH THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK TO NEAR
NORMAL BEFORE LEVELING OFF FOR THE WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO VACILLATE ON THE RETURN OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WITH
RESPECT TO HOW QUICKLY THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH THROUGH UTAH.
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO RETURN TO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH ON THURSDAY AND WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN PLACE SLIGHT CHANCE STORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS STILL LOOKS GOOD. FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION SLOWLY EXPANDS NORTH EACH DAY UNTIL SLIGHT
CHANCE...OR CHANCE POPS...ARE NEEDED STATEWIDE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE SLOW RETURN OCCURS SINCE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW NEVER REALLY
DEVELOPS OVER AZ AND UT. INSTEAD MOISTURE SEEPS NORTHWEST INTO CA
AND NV AND THEN EVENTUALLY FILLS IN THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE PINNING DOWN THE TIMING OF THE
MOISTURE RETURN AND PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS. IF THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION....SETTING UP SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER UTAH...THE
MOISTURE COULD RETURN NORTH MUCH MORE QUICKLY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...HAVE CONTINUED
IDEA OF SLOW NORTHWARD EXPANSION FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT
AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT 13-15Z. EXPECT THE NORTHERLY
GRADIENT TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NORTHERLY WINDS ONCE MORE
AFTER 15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF MONDAYS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE DISTRICT TUESDAY.
GRADUAL WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION NORTHWARD...REACHING PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

KRUSE/GRAHAM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 280329
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
929 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SEEP INTO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH SURGED THROUGH
NORTHERN UT THIS MORNING CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM ROUGHLY GREEN
RIVER WESTWARD TO ROUGHLY BEAVER...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS HAS SPREAD INTO NORTHERN UT
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...AND AS WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT MAY SEE A
FEW RECORD MIN TEMPS SET TUESDAY MORNING...WITH MAX TEMPS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST NORTHERN
VALLEYS.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
IS FORECAST TO EXPAND WESTWARD DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD ALLOWING
FOR A QUICK WARMUP. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY RETURN TO
SOUTHERN UT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING AND NO UPDATES ARE
PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 11
AND 15Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 280329
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
929 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SEEP INTO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH SURGED THROUGH
NORTHERN UT THIS MORNING CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM ROUGHLY GREEN
RIVER WESTWARD TO ROUGHLY BEAVER...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS HAS SPREAD INTO NORTHERN UT
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...AND AS WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT MAY SEE A
FEW RECORD MIN TEMPS SET TUESDAY MORNING...WITH MAX TEMPS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST NORTHERN
VALLEYS.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
IS FORECAST TO EXPAND WESTWARD DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD ALLOWING
FOR A QUICK WARMUP. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY RETURN TO
SOUTHERN UT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING AND NO UPDATES ARE
PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 11
AND 15Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 280329
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
929 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SEEP INTO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH SURGED THROUGH
NORTHERN UT THIS MORNING CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM ROUGHLY GREEN
RIVER WESTWARD TO ROUGHLY BEAVER...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS HAS SPREAD INTO NORTHERN UT
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...AND AS WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT MAY SEE A
FEW RECORD MIN TEMPS SET TUESDAY MORNING...WITH MAX TEMPS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST NORTHERN
VALLEYS.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
IS FORECAST TO EXPAND WESTWARD DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD ALLOWING
FOR A QUICK WARMUP. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY RETURN TO
SOUTHERN UT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING AND NO UPDATES ARE
PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 11
AND 15Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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