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000
FXUS65 KSLC 200226
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
826 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN INCREASINGLY DRY AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP MONDAY AHEAD OF A PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH WILL CROSS
NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY. A SECONDARY WEATHER DISTURBANCE COULD
GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDWEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL FOLLOW FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)...LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE
WEAKENING DEFORMATION AXIS OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH SHOULD DISSIPATE
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE STATE...WITH THE REMAINING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH
THINNING OUT LATER THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS
STATES EARLY THIS WEEK. AN INCREASINGLY WARM AND DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING PACIFIC TROUGH ON MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
FAIRLY GOOD BAROCLINIC STRUCTURE AS IT MOVES INLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

THE STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL SERVE
TO DEFLECT THE TROUGH TO NORTHEAST WITH THE CORE OF THIS FEATURE
TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN ON
TUESDAY. THIS TRAJECTORY WILL TAKE THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF UTAH TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AS IT
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA DURING THE DAY. THE BIG QUESTION
WILL BE HOW MUCH AND HOW FAST THIS FRONT WEAKENS AS IT PRESSES
EAST THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH WHILE THE CORE OF THE TROUGH LIFTS OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION WILL EXIST TO GENERATE LIFT...WITH MODEST MID-LEVEL
COOLING BRINGING A PERIOD OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
TRAILING THE FIRST TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD BE ABLE TO UTILIZE THE LINGERING MOISTURE TO
GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...A FEW CHANGES TO NOTE IN GLOBAL
GUIDANCE FOR THE LATTER PERIODS. RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS EARLIER RUNS BUT WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS HAS BEEN KEYING INTO
THIS AT TIMES OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS BUT NOW BOTH IT AND THE ECMWF
SHOW SIMILAR OUTPUT REGARDING A POTENTIAL UPSTREAM SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC LONG WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE...SHIFTING INLAND LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THOUGH TIMING
REMAINS OFF BY 24 HOURS REGARDING INITIAL IMPACTS OF A POTENTIALLY
POTENT FALL TROUGH...00Z SUN GFS VS. 00Z MON ECMWF...CONFIDENCE IS
TRENDING TO GROW REGARDING A PATTERN SHIFT OCCURRING LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MAINTAINED DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS RIDGE POSITIONS OVERHEAD THEN SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP. ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR DAY 7 AND BEGAN A TREND TO LOWER SNOW LEVELS/TEMPS
SUNDAY DUE TO POTENTIAL OF TROUGH NOSING IN BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST UNDER CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 03-04Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CONGER

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 192108
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
308 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY...AHEAD OF A PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)...MID LEVEL RIDGING ENCOMPASSES
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH AN UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS
WAY EASTWARD ALONG THE US/MEXICO BORDER REGION. MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND ALTHOUGH LIMITED
MOISTURE DOES REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN UT...SUPPRESSION FROM THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAS THUS FAR SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED
CONVECTIVE GROWTH ACROSS THIS AREA. COULD STILL SEE A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE A VERY QUIET EVENING IS IN STORE
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

A DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY ACROSS THE
REGION...DOWNSTREAM FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST. THIS FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A VERY MILD AND GENERALLY
DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY RUNNING 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. MODEST LINGERING
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN UT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO
LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING AND COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SUFFICIENT LIFT ALONG WITH
AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE
WASATCH FRONT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. RAISED POPS 20-30
PERCENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-80 WITHIN
THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...AND DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. SNOW
LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 8500 FEET WITH
PERHAPS A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ON THE HIGHER PEAKS. AS
THE PARENT WAVE QUICKLY CONTINUES LIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA
PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY WIND DOWN BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...A FEW CHANGES TO NOTE IN GLOBAL
GUIDANCE FOR THE LATTER PERIODS. RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS EARLIER RUNS BUT WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS HAS BEEN KEYING INTO
THIS AT TIMES OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS BUT NOW BOTH IT AND THE ECMWF
SHOW SIMILAR OUTPUT REGARDING A POTENTIAL UPSTREAM SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC LONG WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE...SHIFTING INLAND LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THOUGH TIMING
REMAINS OFF BY 24 HOURS REGARDING INITIAL IMPACTS OF A POTENTIALLY
POTENT FALL TROUGH...00Z SUN GFS VS. 00Z MON ECMWF...CONFIDENCE IS
TRENDING TO GROW REGARDING A PATTERN SHIFT OCCURRING LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MAINTAINED DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS RIDGE POSITIONS OVERHEAD THEN SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP. ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR DAY 7 AND BEGAN A TREND TO LOWER SNOW LEVELS/TEMPS
SUNDAY DUE TO POTENTIAL OF TROUGH NOSING IN BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS TO NOTE AT
THE KSLC TERMINAL FOR THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS WILL SWITCH BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03-04Z PER NORM.

&&

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 192108
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
308 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY...AHEAD OF A PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)...MID LEVEL RIDGING ENCOMPASSES
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH AN UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS
WAY EASTWARD ALONG THE US/MEXICO BORDER REGION. MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND ALTHOUGH LIMITED
MOISTURE DOES REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN UT...SUPPRESSION FROM THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAS THUS FAR SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED
CONVECTIVE GROWTH ACROSS THIS AREA. COULD STILL SEE A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE A VERY QUIET EVENING IS IN STORE
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

A DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY ACROSS THE
REGION...DOWNSTREAM FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST. THIS FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A VERY MILD AND GENERALLY
DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY RUNNING 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. MODEST LINGERING
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN UT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO
LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING AND COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SUFFICIENT LIFT ALONG WITH
AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE
WASATCH FRONT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. RAISED POPS 20-30
PERCENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-80 WITHIN
THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...AND DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. SNOW
LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 8500 FEET WITH
PERHAPS A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ON THE HIGHER PEAKS. AS
THE PARENT WAVE QUICKLY CONTINUES LIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA
PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY WIND DOWN BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...A FEW CHANGES TO NOTE IN GLOBAL
GUIDANCE FOR THE LATTER PERIODS. RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS EARLIER RUNS BUT WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS HAS BEEN KEYING INTO
THIS AT TIMES OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS BUT NOW BOTH IT AND THE ECMWF
SHOW SIMILAR OUTPUT REGARDING A POTENTIAL UPSTREAM SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC LONG WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE...SHIFTING INLAND LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THOUGH TIMING
REMAINS OFF BY 24 HOURS REGARDING INITIAL IMPACTS OF A POTENTIALLY
POTENT FALL TROUGH...00Z SUN GFS VS. 00Z MON ECMWF...CONFIDENCE IS
TRENDING TO GROW REGARDING A PATTERN SHIFT OCCURRING LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MAINTAINED DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS RIDGE POSITIONS OVERHEAD THEN SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP. ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR DAY 7 AND BEGAN A TREND TO LOWER SNOW LEVELS/TEMPS
SUNDAY DUE TO POTENTIAL OF TROUGH NOSING IN BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS TO NOTE AT
THE KSLC TERMINAL FOR THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS WILL SWITCH BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03-04Z PER NORM.

&&

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 192108
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
308 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY...AHEAD OF A PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)...MID LEVEL RIDGING ENCOMPASSES
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH AN UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS
WAY EASTWARD ALONG THE US/MEXICO BORDER REGION. MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND ALTHOUGH LIMITED
MOISTURE DOES REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN UT...SUPPRESSION FROM THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAS THUS FAR SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED
CONVECTIVE GROWTH ACROSS THIS AREA. COULD STILL SEE A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE A VERY QUIET EVENING IS IN STORE
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

A DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY ACROSS THE
REGION...DOWNSTREAM FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST. THIS FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A VERY MILD AND GENERALLY
DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY RUNNING 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. MODEST LINGERING
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN UT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO
LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING AND COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SUFFICIENT LIFT ALONG WITH
AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE
WASATCH FRONT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. RAISED POPS 20-30
PERCENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-80 WITHIN
THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...AND DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. SNOW
LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 8500 FEET WITH
PERHAPS A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ON THE HIGHER PEAKS. AS
THE PARENT WAVE QUICKLY CONTINUES LIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA
PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY WIND DOWN BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...A FEW CHANGES TO NOTE IN GLOBAL
GUIDANCE FOR THE LATTER PERIODS. RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS EARLIER RUNS BUT WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS HAS BEEN KEYING INTO
THIS AT TIMES OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS BUT NOW BOTH IT AND THE ECMWF
SHOW SIMILAR OUTPUT REGARDING A POTENTIAL UPSTREAM SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC LONG WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE...SHIFTING INLAND LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THOUGH TIMING
REMAINS OFF BY 24 HOURS REGARDING INITIAL IMPACTS OF A POTENTIALLY
POTENT FALL TROUGH...00Z SUN GFS VS. 00Z MON ECMWF...CONFIDENCE IS
TRENDING TO GROW REGARDING A PATTERN SHIFT OCCURRING LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MAINTAINED DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS RIDGE POSITIONS OVERHEAD THEN SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP. ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR DAY 7 AND BEGAN A TREND TO LOWER SNOW LEVELS/TEMPS
SUNDAY DUE TO POTENTIAL OF TROUGH NOSING IN BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS TO NOTE AT
THE KSLC TERMINAL FOR THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS WILL SWITCH BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03-04Z PER NORM.

&&

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 192108
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
308 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY...AHEAD OF A PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)...MID LEVEL RIDGING ENCOMPASSES
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH AN UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS
WAY EASTWARD ALONG THE US/MEXICO BORDER REGION. MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND ALTHOUGH LIMITED
MOISTURE DOES REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN UT...SUPPRESSION FROM THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAS THUS FAR SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED
CONVECTIVE GROWTH ACROSS THIS AREA. COULD STILL SEE A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE A VERY QUIET EVENING IS IN STORE
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

A DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY ACROSS THE
REGION...DOWNSTREAM FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST. THIS FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A VERY MILD AND GENERALLY
DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY RUNNING 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. MODEST LINGERING
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN UT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO
LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING AND COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SUFFICIENT LIFT ALONG WITH
AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE
WASATCH FRONT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. RAISED POPS 20-30
PERCENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-80 WITHIN
THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...AND DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. SNOW
LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 8500 FEET WITH
PERHAPS A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ON THE HIGHER PEAKS. AS
THE PARENT WAVE QUICKLY CONTINUES LIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA
PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY WIND DOWN BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...A FEW CHANGES TO NOTE IN GLOBAL
GUIDANCE FOR THE LATTER PERIODS. RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS EARLIER RUNS BUT WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS HAS BEEN KEYING INTO
THIS AT TIMES OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS BUT NOW BOTH IT AND THE ECMWF
SHOW SIMILAR OUTPUT REGARDING A POTENTIAL UPSTREAM SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC LONG WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE...SHIFTING INLAND LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THOUGH TIMING
REMAINS OFF BY 24 HOURS REGARDING INITIAL IMPACTS OF A POTENTIALLY
POTENT FALL TROUGH...00Z SUN GFS VS. 00Z MON ECMWF...CONFIDENCE IS
TRENDING TO GROW REGARDING A PATTERN SHIFT OCCURRING LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MAINTAINED DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS RIDGE POSITIONS OVERHEAD THEN SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP. ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR DAY 7 AND BEGAN A TREND TO LOWER SNOW LEVELS/TEMPS
SUNDAY DUE TO POTENTIAL OF TROUGH NOSING IN BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS TO NOTE AT
THE KSLC TERMINAL FOR THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS WILL SWITCH BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03-04Z PER NORM.

&&

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 191624
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1024 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE ARIZONA AND
MEXICO BORDER WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH ARRIVING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
DEPICT A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
AN UPPER LOW PASSING WELL SOUTH ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER
REGION. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL
LARGELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...ALTHOUGH GOES
DERIVED PW VALUES REMAIN NEAR 0.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN
UT...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UT
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO SATURDAYS OBSERVED MAXES...AND
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION...AHEAD
OF AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WHICH
ARE FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH ON TUESDAY. THE
STRONGEST UPPER FORCING IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER A COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...ASCENT ATTRIBUTED TO THE UPPER JET ALONG
THE DOWNSHEAR SIDE OF THE PASSING TROUGH...AND AN INFLUX OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH.

UPDATED GRIDS TO TWEAK SKY GRIDS AND TEMPERATURE
TRENDS...OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS TO NOTE AT
THE KSLC TERMINAL FOR THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-19Z PER NORM.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 191624
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1024 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE ARIZONA AND
MEXICO BORDER WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH ARRIVING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
DEPICT A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
AN UPPER LOW PASSING WELL SOUTH ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER
REGION. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL
LARGELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...ALTHOUGH GOES
DERIVED PW VALUES REMAIN NEAR 0.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN
UT...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UT
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO SATURDAYS OBSERVED MAXES...AND
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION...AHEAD
OF AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WHICH
ARE FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH ON TUESDAY. THE
STRONGEST UPPER FORCING IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER A COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...ASCENT ATTRIBUTED TO THE UPPER JET ALONG
THE DOWNSHEAR SIDE OF THE PASSING TROUGH...AND AN INFLUX OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH.

UPDATED GRIDS TO TWEAK SKY GRIDS AND TEMPERATURE
TRENDS...OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS TO NOTE AT
THE KSLC TERMINAL FOR THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-19Z PER NORM.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 191624
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1024 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE ARIZONA AND
MEXICO BORDER WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH ARRIVING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
DEPICT A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
AN UPPER LOW PASSING WELL SOUTH ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER
REGION. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL
LARGELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...ALTHOUGH GOES
DERIVED PW VALUES REMAIN NEAR 0.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN
UT...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UT
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO SATURDAYS OBSERVED MAXES...AND
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION...AHEAD
OF AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WHICH
ARE FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH ON TUESDAY. THE
STRONGEST UPPER FORCING IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER A COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...ASCENT ATTRIBUTED TO THE UPPER JET ALONG
THE DOWNSHEAR SIDE OF THE PASSING TROUGH...AND AN INFLUX OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH.

UPDATED GRIDS TO TWEAK SKY GRIDS AND TEMPERATURE
TRENDS...OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS TO NOTE AT
THE KSLC TERMINAL FOR THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-19Z PER NORM.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 191624
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1024 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE ARIZONA AND
MEXICO BORDER WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH ARRIVING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
DEPICT A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
AN UPPER LOW PASSING WELL SOUTH ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER
REGION. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL
LARGELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...ALTHOUGH GOES
DERIVED PW VALUES REMAIN NEAR 0.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN
UT...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UT
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO SATURDAYS OBSERVED MAXES...AND
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION...AHEAD
OF AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WHICH
ARE FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH ON TUESDAY. THE
STRONGEST UPPER FORCING IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER A COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...ASCENT ATTRIBUTED TO THE UPPER JET ALONG
THE DOWNSHEAR SIDE OF THE PASSING TROUGH...AND AN INFLUX OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH.

UPDATED GRIDS TO TWEAK SKY GRIDS AND TEMPERATURE
TRENDS...OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS TO NOTE AT
THE KSLC TERMINAL FOR THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-19Z PER NORM.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 191034
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
434 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE ARIZONA AND
MEXICO BORDER WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH ARRIVING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THIS MORNING CONSISTS OF AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN UNDERCUT BY A CLOSED LOW TRACKING EAST
ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER. A WARM AIRMASS ALONG WITH DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE...WHILE SOUTHERN UTAH HAS SEEN A SLIGHT
INCREASE OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS NOW AROUND 0.6 INCHES. BULK OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SOUTH OF UTAH...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL FIRE OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK INSTABILITY ACTS ON
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

THE RIDGE AND UPPER LOW WILL BOTH SHIFT EAST TOMORROW...PUTTING UTAH
UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH. WINDS
ARE SET TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN UTAH TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY STRONG...THESE WINDS WILL STILL AID IN
MIXING...RESULTING IN A SMALL UPTICK IN AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES
ACROSS WESTERN VALLEYS.

UPSTREAM TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT CROSSES THE
GREAT BASIN...GRAZING NORTHWEST UTAH IN THE PROCESS. WHILE THE BULK
OF THE UPPER SUPPORT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF UTAH...A RELATIVELY STRONG
BUT SHALLOW COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN UTAH
ON TUESDAY. BEST FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM IDAHO INTO FAR NORTHERN UTAH. HOWEVER...SOME MOISTURE
WILL ALSO GET DRAWN INTO EASTERN UTAH FROM ARIZONA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN ZONES
AS WELL. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
AREA...A TRAILING DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO CARVE FARTHER
SOUTH...CROSSING UTAH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND KEEPING A THREAT OF PRECIPITATION ALIVE. SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL DUE TO THE COOLER AIRMASS...BUT GLOBAL MODELS STILL ONLY
SUPPORT LEVELS DOWN TO 7500-8500FT ACROSS THE NORTH.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD ON WEDNESDAY...REMAINING IN PLACE
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS RIDGE REMAINS STEADFAST IN THE EC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT THE LATEST GFS GRADUALLY SHIFTS THE RIDGE AXIS
EAST. DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
REGARDLESS...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW OF THE GFS WOULD
PROMOTE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE EC SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SWITCH TO
NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 19Z. NO OPERATIONAL CONCERNS FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT WINDS AND POOR MIXING FOR MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A STORM SYSTEM IN ARIZONA WILL PROMOTE INSTABILITY AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH
TONIGHT...ALLOWING MODERATE CLEARING INDICES FOR THIS LIMITED AREA
TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM...SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVING BURNING
CONDITIONS FOR MOST BASINS. A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY
PRECIPITATION DIVES INTO NORTHWEST UTAH ON TUESDAY...BOLSTERING
TRANSPORT WINDS AND MIXING DEPTH THUS ENABLING EXCELLENT CLEARING
INDICES NEARLY STATEWIDE.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 191034
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
434 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE ARIZONA AND
MEXICO BORDER WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH ARRIVING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THIS MORNING CONSISTS OF AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN UNDERCUT BY A CLOSED LOW TRACKING EAST
ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER. A WARM AIRMASS ALONG WITH DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE...WHILE SOUTHERN UTAH HAS SEEN A SLIGHT
INCREASE OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS NOW AROUND 0.6 INCHES. BULK OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SOUTH OF UTAH...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL FIRE OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK INSTABILITY ACTS ON
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

THE RIDGE AND UPPER LOW WILL BOTH SHIFT EAST TOMORROW...PUTTING UTAH
UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH. WINDS
ARE SET TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN UTAH TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY STRONG...THESE WINDS WILL STILL AID IN
MIXING...RESULTING IN A SMALL UPTICK IN AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES
ACROSS WESTERN VALLEYS.

UPSTREAM TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT CROSSES THE
GREAT BASIN...GRAZING NORTHWEST UTAH IN THE PROCESS. WHILE THE BULK
OF THE UPPER SUPPORT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF UTAH...A RELATIVELY STRONG
BUT SHALLOW COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN UTAH
ON TUESDAY. BEST FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM IDAHO INTO FAR NORTHERN UTAH. HOWEVER...SOME MOISTURE
WILL ALSO GET DRAWN INTO EASTERN UTAH FROM ARIZONA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN ZONES
AS WELL. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
AREA...A TRAILING DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO CARVE FARTHER
SOUTH...CROSSING UTAH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND KEEPING A THREAT OF PRECIPITATION ALIVE. SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL DUE TO THE COOLER AIRMASS...BUT GLOBAL MODELS STILL ONLY
SUPPORT LEVELS DOWN TO 7500-8500FT ACROSS THE NORTH.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD ON WEDNESDAY...REMAINING IN PLACE
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS RIDGE REMAINS STEADFAST IN THE EC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT THE LATEST GFS GRADUALLY SHIFTS THE RIDGE AXIS
EAST. DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
REGARDLESS...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW OF THE GFS WOULD
PROMOTE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE EC SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SWITCH TO
NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 19Z. NO OPERATIONAL CONCERNS FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT WINDS AND POOR MIXING FOR MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A STORM SYSTEM IN ARIZONA WILL PROMOTE INSTABILITY AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH
TONIGHT...ALLOWING MODERATE CLEARING INDICES FOR THIS LIMITED AREA
TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM...SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVING BURNING
CONDITIONS FOR MOST BASINS. A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY
PRECIPITATION DIVES INTO NORTHWEST UTAH ON TUESDAY...BOLSTERING
TRANSPORT WINDS AND MIXING DEPTH THUS ENABLING EXCELLENT CLEARING
INDICES NEARLY STATEWIDE.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 190303
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
903 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE ARIZONA
AND MEXICO BORDER WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH ARRIVING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)...THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING
EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BEGINNING A SHOW A BETTER
DEFINED CIRCULATION IN RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A DEFORMATION
AXIS APPEARS TO BE FORMING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING.
THIS AXIS WILL BECOME THE FOCUS OF ANY ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WHICH SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN NEAR OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH OF THE DEFORMATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATED SUNDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE WEST COAST MONDAY NIGHT...THEN CONTINUE
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TUESDAY. FROM
THERE THE TROUGH WILL ENCOUNTER THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND WILL BE FORCED ON A MORE NORTHEAST TRACK BEGINNING LATE
TUESDAY. FOR UTAH THIS TROUGH WILL STILL HAVE A BIT OF A PUNCH
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH...THOUGH MOST OF THE IMPACT WILL FOCUS ON THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)...SIMILAR TRENDS IN GLOBAL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE SECONDARY SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TIMING/PLACEMENT REMAIN
LOCKED IN...AND 12Z ECMWF REMAINS 1 TO 2 DEGREES COOLER AT H7 THAN
THE GFS. SAID WAVE WILL SUPPORT MODEST MID LEVEL CAA ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH FOCUS ON THE NORTH BUT THIS WILL REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW
OWING TO MINIMAL QPF IN GUIDANCE. WEAK FORCING COUPLED WITH THE
STALLED SURFACE COLD FRONT IN PLACE DOES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST WITH
SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO AT OR JUST BELOW 8000 FEET BY DAWN. MAYBE A
DUSTING ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS BUT THATS ABOUT IT. RAPID
DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION OF SAID WAVE WILL ALLOW HEIGHTS TO BUILD
RAPIDLY BEHIND WITH CLEARING SKIES WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY...AND
COOLING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. DID LOWER MAX TEMPS FOR
THE DAY AS H7 VALUES WILL BE HOVERING BETWEEN 0 TO +1 C IN NORTH.

AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING HEIGHTS A PRECURSOR TO AMPLIFIED RIDGING
THAT WILL TAKE FORM ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST WITH GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPS...SPIKING ABOVE CLIMO FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL UNDER
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE KSLC TERMINAL. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CONGER

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 190303
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
903 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE ARIZONA
AND MEXICO BORDER WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH ARRIVING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)...THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING
EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BEGINNING A SHOW A BETTER
DEFINED CIRCULATION IN RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A DEFORMATION
AXIS APPEARS TO BE FORMING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING.
THIS AXIS WILL BECOME THE FOCUS OF ANY ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WHICH SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN NEAR OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH OF THE DEFORMATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATED SUNDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE WEST COAST MONDAY NIGHT...THEN CONTINUE
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TUESDAY. FROM
THERE THE TROUGH WILL ENCOUNTER THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND WILL BE FORCED ON A MORE NORTHEAST TRACK BEGINNING LATE
TUESDAY. FOR UTAH THIS TROUGH WILL STILL HAVE A BIT OF A PUNCH
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH...THOUGH MOST OF THE IMPACT WILL FOCUS ON THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)...SIMILAR TRENDS IN GLOBAL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE SECONDARY SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TIMING/PLACEMENT REMAIN
LOCKED IN...AND 12Z ECMWF REMAINS 1 TO 2 DEGREES COOLER AT H7 THAN
THE GFS. SAID WAVE WILL SUPPORT MODEST MID LEVEL CAA ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH FOCUS ON THE NORTH BUT THIS WILL REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW
OWING TO MINIMAL QPF IN GUIDANCE. WEAK FORCING COUPLED WITH THE
STALLED SURFACE COLD FRONT IN PLACE DOES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST WITH
SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO AT OR JUST BELOW 8000 FEET BY DAWN. MAYBE A
DUSTING ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS BUT THATS ABOUT IT. RAPID
DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION OF SAID WAVE WILL ALLOW HEIGHTS TO BUILD
RAPIDLY BEHIND WITH CLEARING SKIES WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY...AND
COOLING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. DID LOWER MAX TEMPS FOR
THE DAY AS H7 VALUES WILL BE HOVERING BETWEEN 0 TO +1 C IN NORTH.

AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING HEIGHTS A PRECURSOR TO AMPLIFIED RIDGING
THAT WILL TAKE FORM ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST WITH GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPS...SPIKING ABOVE CLIMO FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL UNDER
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE KSLC TERMINAL. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CONGER

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 190303
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
903 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE ARIZONA
AND MEXICO BORDER WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH ARRIVING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)...THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING
EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BEGINNING A SHOW A BETTER
DEFINED CIRCULATION IN RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A DEFORMATION
AXIS APPEARS TO BE FORMING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING.
THIS AXIS WILL BECOME THE FOCUS OF ANY ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WHICH SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN NEAR OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH OF THE DEFORMATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATED SUNDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE WEST COAST MONDAY NIGHT...THEN CONTINUE
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TUESDAY. FROM
THERE THE TROUGH WILL ENCOUNTER THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND WILL BE FORCED ON A MORE NORTHEAST TRACK BEGINNING LATE
TUESDAY. FOR UTAH THIS TROUGH WILL STILL HAVE A BIT OF A PUNCH
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH...THOUGH MOST OF THE IMPACT WILL FOCUS ON THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)...SIMILAR TRENDS IN GLOBAL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE SECONDARY SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TIMING/PLACEMENT REMAIN
LOCKED IN...AND 12Z ECMWF REMAINS 1 TO 2 DEGREES COOLER AT H7 THAN
THE GFS. SAID WAVE WILL SUPPORT MODEST MID LEVEL CAA ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH FOCUS ON THE NORTH BUT THIS WILL REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW
OWING TO MINIMAL QPF IN GUIDANCE. WEAK FORCING COUPLED WITH THE
STALLED SURFACE COLD FRONT IN PLACE DOES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST WITH
SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO AT OR JUST BELOW 8000 FEET BY DAWN. MAYBE A
DUSTING ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS BUT THATS ABOUT IT. RAPID
DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION OF SAID WAVE WILL ALLOW HEIGHTS TO BUILD
RAPIDLY BEHIND WITH CLEARING SKIES WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY...AND
COOLING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. DID LOWER MAX TEMPS FOR
THE DAY AS H7 VALUES WILL BE HOVERING BETWEEN 0 TO +1 C IN NORTH.

AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING HEIGHTS A PRECURSOR TO AMPLIFIED RIDGING
THAT WILL TAKE FORM ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST WITH GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPS...SPIKING ABOVE CLIMO FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL UNDER
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE KSLC TERMINAL. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CONGER

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 190303
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
903 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE ARIZONA
AND MEXICO BORDER WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH ARRIVING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)...THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING
EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BEGINNING A SHOW A BETTER
DEFINED CIRCULATION IN RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A DEFORMATION
AXIS APPEARS TO BE FORMING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING.
THIS AXIS WILL BECOME THE FOCUS OF ANY ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WHICH SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN NEAR OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH OF THE DEFORMATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATED SUNDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE WEST COAST MONDAY NIGHT...THEN CONTINUE
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TUESDAY. FROM
THERE THE TROUGH WILL ENCOUNTER THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND WILL BE FORCED ON A MORE NORTHEAST TRACK BEGINNING LATE
TUESDAY. FOR UTAH THIS TROUGH WILL STILL HAVE A BIT OF A PUNCH
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH...THOUGH MOST OF THE IMPACT WILL FOCUS ON THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)...SIMILAR TRENDS IN GLOBAL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE SECONDARY SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TIMING/PLACEMENT REMAIN
LOCKED IN...AND 12Z ECMWF REMAINS 1 TO 2 DEGREES COOLER AT H7 THAN
THE GFS. SAID WAVE WILL SUPPORT MODEST MID LEVEL CAA ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH FOCUS ON THE NORTH BUT THIS WILL REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW
OWING TO MINIMAL QPF IN GUIDANCE. WEAK FORCING COUPLED WITH THE
STALLED SURFACE COLD FRONT IN PLACE DOES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST WITH
SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO AT OR JUST BELOW 8000 FEET BY DAWN. MAYBE A
DUSTING ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS BUT THATS ABOUT IT. RAPID
DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION OF SAID WAVE WILL ALLOW HEIGHTS TO BUILD
RAPIDLY BEHIND WITH CLEARING SKIES WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY...AND
COOLING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. DID LOWER MAX TEMPS FOR
THE DAY AS H7 VALUES WILL BE HOVERING BETWEEN 0 TO +1 C IN NORTH.

AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING HEIGHTS A PRECURSOR TO AMPLIFIED RIDGING
THAT WILL TAKE FORM ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST WITH GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPS...SPIKING ABOVE CLIMO FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL UNDER
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE KSLC TERMINAL. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CONGER

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 182205
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
405 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WHILE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN UTAH. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHERN UTAH MONDAY BUT
A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BREAK DOWN THIS RIDGE ON
TUESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION (SHORT TERM...THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)...ELONGATED
TROUGH OVER NEVADA/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF
CLOSING OFF OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN. THIS CLOSING OFF
PROCESS IS CREATING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE LOW THAT IS OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. MOISTURE IS LIMITED BUT THERE HAVE BEEN ISOLATED ECHOES
SHOWING UP OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE INTO THIS EVENING
BUT WITHOUT SURFACE HEATING THE DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE NOT LIKELY TO
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING...THEREFORE DO NOT HAVE ANY
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNDER
A VERY NONDESCRIPT FLOW FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS. THE NAM SHOWS A LITTLE QPF OVER THE UINTA MOUNTAINS WHILE
THE EC AND GFS DO NOT. DUE TO THE FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MOISTURE MOVES THAT FAR NORTH SO
HAVE INCLUDED A SPECKLING OF OVER 15 PERCENT POPS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF UINTAS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO SHOW UP IN THE ZONE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH IN LINE
WITH READINGS THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...RESPECTIVELY.
HOWEVER AS WINDS INCREASE OVER WESTERN VALLEYS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING TROUGH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE BY 3 TO 6 DEGREES.
THIS WILL PUT THE WESTERN VALLEYS 8-14 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, BUT
STILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW THE PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR OCTOBER 20.

THE EC...GFS AND NAM ARE ALL PRETTY CLOSE IN AGREEMENT ON TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF INCOMING TROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT REACHING SLC AROUND NOON TUESDAY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD OVER WESTERN VALLEYS
MONDAY NIGHT. PROBABLY COULD HAVE GONE HIGHER WITH POPS OVER
NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY SINCE ITS A RESPECTABLE FRONT BUT THERE IS
STILL ROOM FOR THIS FIRST TROUGH TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY WITH A SECOND
ONE RIGHT ON ITS HEALS. SHALLOW COOL AIR SHOULD PUSH ITS WAY INTO
CENTRAL UTAH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOWERED POPS OVER SOUTHWEST FOR
TUESDAY AS THEY ARE FAR REMOVED FROM ANY DYNAMICS.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)...SIMILAR TRENDS IN GLOBAL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE SECONDARY SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TIMING/PLACEMENT REMAIN
LOCKED IN...AND 12Z ECMWF REMAINS 1 TO 2 DEGREES COOLER AT H7 THAN
THE GFS. SAID WAVE WILL SUPPORT MODEST MID LEVEL CAA ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH FOCUS ON THE NORTH BUT THIS WILL REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW
OWING TO MINIMAL QPF IN GUIDANCE. WEAK FORCING COUPLED WITH THE
STALLED SURFACE COLD FRONT IN PLACE DOES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST WITH
SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO AT OR JUST BELOW 8000 FEET BY DAWN. MAYBE A
DUSTING ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS BUT THATS ABOUT IT. RAPID
DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION OF SAID WAVE WILL ALLOW HEIGHTS TO BUILD
RAPIDLY BEHIND WITH CLEARING SKIES WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY...AND
COOLING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. DID LOWER MAX TEMPS FOR
THE DAY AS H7 VALUES WILL BE HOVERING BETWEEN 0 TO +1 C IN NORTH.

AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING HEIGHTS A PRECURSOR TO AMPLIFIED RIDGING
THAT WILL TAKE FORM ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST WITH GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPS...SPIKING ABOVE CLIMO FOR NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS WILL SWITCH BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03-04Z PER NORM.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...STRUTHWOLF
AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 182205
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
405 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WHILE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN UTAH. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHERN UTAH MONDAY BUT
A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BREAK DOWN THIS RIDGE ON
TUESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION (SHORT TERM...THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)...ELONGATED
TROUGH OVER NEVADA/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF
CLOSING OFF OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN. THIS CLOSING OFF
PROCESS IS CREATING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE LOW THAT IS OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. MOISTURE IS LIMITED BUT THERE HAVE BEEN ISOLATED ECHOES
SHOWING UP OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE INTO THIS EVENING
BUT WITHOUT SURFACE HEATING THE DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE NOT LIKELY TO
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING...THEREFORE DO NOT HAVE ANY
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNDER
A VERY NONDESCRIPT FLOW FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS. THE NAM SHOWS A LITTLE QPF OVER THE UINTA MOUNTAINS WHILE
THE EC AND GFS DO NOT. DUE TO THE FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MOISTURE MOVES THAT FAR NORTH SO
HAVE INCLUDED A SPECKLING OF OVER 15 PERCENT POPS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF UINTAS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO SHOW UP IN THE ZONE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH IN LINE
WITH READINGS THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...RESPECTIVELY.
HOWEVER AS WINDS INCREASE OVER WESTERN VALLEYS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING TROUGH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE BY 3 TO 6 DEGREES.
THIS WILL PUT THE WESTERN VALLEYS 8-14 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, BUT
STILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW THE PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR OCTOBER 20.

THE EC...GFS AND NAM ARE ALL PRETTY CLOSE IN AGREEMENT ON TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF INCOMING TROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT REACHING SLC AROUND NOON TUESDAY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD OVER WESTERN VALLEYS
MONDAY NIGHT. PROBABLY COULD HAVE GONE HIGHER WITH POPS OVER
NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY SINCE ITS A RESPECTABLE FRONT BUT THERE IS
STILL ROOM FOR THIS FIRST TROUGH TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY WITH A SECOND
ONE RIGHT ON ITS HEALS. SHALLOW COOL AIR SHOULD PUSH ITS WAY INTO
CENTRAL UTAH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOWERED POPS OVER SOUTHWEST FOR
TUESDAY AS THEY ARE FAR REMOVED FROM ANY DYNAMICS.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)...SIMILAR TRENDS IN GLOBAL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE SECONDARY SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TIMING/PLACEMENT REMAIN
LOCKED IN...AND 12Z ECMWF REMAINS 1 TO 2 DEGREES COOLER AT H7 THAN
THE GFS. SAID WAVE WILL SUPPORT MODEST MID LEVEL CAA ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH FOCUS ON THE NORTH BUT THIS WILL REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW
OWING TO MINIMAL QPF IN GUIDANCE. WEAK FORCING COUPLED WITH THE
STALLED SURFACE COLD FRONT IN PLACE DOES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST WITH
SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO AT OR JUST BELOW 8000 FEET BY DAWN. MAYBE A
DUSTING ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS BUT THATS ABOUT IT. RAPID
DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION OF SAID WAVE WILL ALLOW HEIGHTS TO BUILD
RAPIDLY BEHIND WITH CLEARING SKIES WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY...AND
COOLING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. DID LOWER MAX TEMPS FOR
THE DAY AS H7 VALUES WILL BE HOVERING BETWEEN 0 TO +1 C IN NORTH.

AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING HEIGHTS A PRECURSOR TO AMPLIFIED RIDGING
THAT WILL TAKE FORM ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST WITH GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPS...SPIKING ABOVE CLIMO FOR NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS WILL SWITCH BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03-04Z PER NORM.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...STRUTHWOLF
AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 182205
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
405 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WHILE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN UTAH. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHERN UTAH MONDAY BUT
A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BREAK DOWN THIS RIDGE ON
TUESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION (SHORT TERM...THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)...ELONGATED
TROUGH OVER NEVADA/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF
CLOSING OFF OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN. THIS CLOSING OFF
PROCESS IS CREATING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE LOW THAT IS OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. MOISTURE IS LIMITED BUT THERE HAVE BEEN ISOLATED ECHOES
SHOWING UP OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE INTO THIS EVENING
BUT WITHOUT SURFACE HEATING THE DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE NOT LIKELY TO
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING...THEREFORE DO NOT HAVE ANY
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNDER
A VERY NONDESCRIPT FLOW FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS. THE NAM SHOWS A LITTLE QPF OVER THE UINTA MOUNTAINS WHILE
THE EC AND GFS DO NOT. DUE TO THE FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MOISTURE MOVES THAT FAR NORTH SO
HAVE INCLUDED A SPECKLING OF OVER 15 PERCENT POPS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF UINTAS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO SHOW UP IN THE ZONE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH IN LINE
WITH READINGS THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...RESPECTIVELY.
HOWEVER AS WINDS INCREASE OVER WESTERN VALLEYS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING TROUGH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE BY 3 TO 6 DEGREES.
THIS WILL PUT THE WESTERN VALLEYS 8-14 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, BUT
STILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW THE PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR OCTOBER 20.

THE EC...GFS AND NAM ARE ALL PRETTY CLOSE IN AGREEMENT ON TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF INCOMING TROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT REACHING SLC AROUND NOON TUESDAY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD OVER WESTERN VALLEYS
MONDAY NIGHT. PROBABLY COULD HAVE GONE HIGHER WITH POPS OVER
NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY SINCE ITS A RESPECTABLE FRONT BUT THERE IS
STILL ROOM FOR THIS FIRST TROUGH TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY WITH A SECOND
ONE RIGHT ON ITS HEALS. SHALLOW COOL AIR SHOULD PUSH ITS WAY INTO
CENTRAL UTAH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOWERED POPS OVER SOUTHWEST FOR
TUESDAY AS THEY ARE FAR REMOVED FROM ANY DYNAMICS.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)...SIMILAR TRENDS IN GLOBAL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE SECONDARY SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TIMING/PLACEMENT REMAIN
LOCKED IN...AND 12Z ECMWF REMAINS 1 TO 2 DEGREES COOLER AT H7 THAN
THE GFS. SAID WAVE WILL SUPPORT MODEST MID LEVEL CAA ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH FOCUS ON THE NORTH BUT THIS WILL REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW
OWING TO MINIMAL QPF IN GUIDANCE. WEAK FORCING COUPLED WITH THE
STALLED SURFACE COLD FRONT IN PLACE DOES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST WITH
SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO AT OR JUST BELOW 8000 FEET BY DAWN. MAYBE A
DUSTING ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS BUT THATS ABOUT IT. RAPID
DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION OF SAID WAVE WILL ALLOW HEIGHTS TO BUILD
RAPIDLY BEHIND WITH CLEARING SKIES WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY...AND
COOLING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. DID LOWER MAX TEMPS FOR
THE DAY AS H7 VALUES WILL BE HOVERING BETWEEN 0 TO +1 C IN NORTH.

AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING HEIGHTS A PRECURSOR TO AMPLIFIED RIDGING
THAT WILL TAKE FORM ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST WITH GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPS...SPIKING ABOVE CLIMO FOR NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS WILL SWITCH BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03-04Z PER NORM.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...STRUTHWOLF
AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 182205
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
405 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WHILE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN UTAH. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHERN UTAH MONDAY BUT
A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BREAK DOWN THIS RIDGE ON
TUESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION (SHORT TERM...THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)...ELONGATED
TROUGH OVER NEVADA/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF
CLOSING OFF OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN. THIS CLOSING OFF
PROCESS IS CREATING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE LOW THAT IS OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. MOISTURE IS LIMITED BUT THERE HAVE BEEN ISOLATED ECHOES
SHOWING UP OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE INTO THIS EVENING
BUT WITHOUT SURFACE HEATING THE DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE NOT LIKELY TO
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING...THEREFORE DO NOT HAVE ANY
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNDER
A VERY NONDESCRIPT FLOW FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS. THE NAM SHOWS A LITTLE QPF OVER THE UINTA MOUNTAINS WHILE
THE EC AND GFS DO NOT. DUE TO THE FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MOISTURE MOVES THAT FAR NORTH SO
HAVE INCLUDED A SPECKLING OF OVER 15 PERCENT POPS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF UINTAS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO SHOW UP IN THE ZONE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH IN LINE
WITH READINGS THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...RESPECTIVELY.
HOWEVER AS WINDS INCREASE OVER WESTERN VALLEYS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING TROUGH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE BY 3 TO 6 DEGREES.
THIS WILL PUT THE WESTERN VALLEYS 8-14 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, BUT
STILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW THE PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR OCTOBER 20.

THE EC...GFS AND NAM ARE ALL PRETTY CLOSE IN AGREEMENT ON TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF INCOMING TROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT REACHING SLC AROUND NOON TUESDAY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD OVER WESTERN VALLEYS
MONDAY NIGHT. PROBABLY COULD HAVE GONE HIGHER WITH POPS OVER
NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY SINCE ITS A RESPECTABLE FRONT BUT THERE IS
STILL ROOM FOR THIS FIRST TROUGH TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY WITH A SECOND
ONE RIGHT ON ITS HEALS. SHALLOW COOL AIR SHOULD PUSH ITS WAY INTO
CENTRAL UTAH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOWERED POPS OVER SOUTHWEST FOR
TUESDAY AS THEY ARE FAR REMOVED FROM ANY DYNAMICS.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)...SIMILAR TRENDS IN GLOBAL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE SECONDARY SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TIMING/PLACEMENT REMAIN
LOCKED IN...AND 12Z ECMWF REMAINS 1 TO 2 DEGREES COOLER AT H7 THAN
THE GFS. SAID WAVE WILL SUPPORT MODEST MID LEVEL CAA ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH FOCUS ON THE NORTH BUT THIS WILL REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW
OWING TO MINIMAL QPF IN GUIDANCE. WEAK FORCING COUPLED WITH THE
STALLED SURFACE COLD FRONT IN PLACE DOES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST WITH
SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO AT OR JUST BELOW 8000 FEET BY DAWN. MAYBE A
DUSTING ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS BUT THATS ABOUT IT. RAPID
DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION OF SAID WAVE WILL ALLOW HEIGHTS TO BUILD
RAPIDLY BEHIND WITH CLEARING SKIES WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY...AND
COOLING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. DID LOWER MAX TEMPS FOR
THE DAY AS H7 VALUES WILL BE HOVERING BETWEEN 0 TO +1 C IN NORTH.

AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING HEIGHTS A PRECURSOR TO AMPLIFIED RIDGING
THAT WILL TAKE FORM ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST WITH GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPS...SPIKING ABOVE CLIMO FOR NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS WILL SWITCH BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03-04Z PER NORM.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...STRUTHWOLF
AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 181619
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1019 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WHILE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN UTAH. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHERN UTAH MONDAY BUT
A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BREAK DOWN THIS RIDGE ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE SHOWING DECENT CIRCULATION MOVING EASTWARD
OUT OF NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. DUE TO DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT BETWEEN THIS EXITING CIRCULATION AND THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
UTAH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH TODAY. DUE TO RELATIVELY
DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND DYNAMICS SO WEAK HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE
THREAT OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST VALLEYS OF CWA AND LOWER POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALSO LOWERED TEMPS IN
RESPONSE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THERE NOW AND LIKELIHOOD OF
IT TO REMAIN.

LOWERED TEMPS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND DIXIE AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIKELY TO KEEP FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS PRESENT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS PORTION OF
THE CWA SHOW VERY LITTLE LIFT AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS BELOW
650 MB. FACTORING THIS ALL IN HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS MOUNTAINS AND REMOVED POPS IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS.

ONE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAYS FORECAST IS THAT VALLEY BOTTOMS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UTAH MAY SEE LOWER TEMPS THAN YESTERDAY AS
INVERSION A LITTLE STRONGER. DID NOT CHANGE FORECAST OTHER THAN
FOR BRIGHAM CITY AS FORECAST LOOKED A LITTLE TOO WARM THERE. FOR
SLC MOS GUIDANCE AND BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS INDICATED BETWEEN 69
AND 71 WHILE THE RAW GRIDS WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. BELIEVE
THE UPPER 60S MAY BE THE BETTER FORECAST BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO UPDATE SLC TEMP FORECAST.

REST OF PACKAGE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES THIS MORNING...WITH A
SWITCH TO LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 18-19Z PER NORM.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...STRUTHWOLF
AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 181619
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1019 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WHILE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN UTAH. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHERN UTAH MONDAY BUT
A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BREAK DOWN THIS RIDGE ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE SHOWING DECENT CIRCULATION MOVING EASTWARD
OUT OF NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. DUE TO DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT BETWEEN THIS EXITING CIRCULATION AND THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
UTAH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH TODAY. DUE TO RELATIVELY
DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND DYNAMICS SO WEAK HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE
THREAT OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST VALLEYS OF CWA AND LOWER POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALSO LOWERED TEMPS IN
RESPONSE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THERE NOW AND LIKELIHOOD OF
IT TO REMAIN.

LOWERED TEMPS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND DIXIE AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIKELY TO KEEP FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS PRESENT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS PORTION OF
THE CWA SHOW VERY LITTLE LIFT AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS BELOW
650 MB. FACTORING THIS ALL IN HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS MOUNTAINS AND REMOVED POPS IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS.

ONE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAYS FORECAST IS THAT VALLEY BOTTOMS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UTAH MAY SEE LOWER TEMPS THAN YESTERDAY AS
INVERSION A LITTLE STRONGER. DID NOT CHANGE FORECAST OTHER THAN
FOR BRIGHAM CITY AS FORECAST LOOKED A LITTLE TOO WARM THERE. FOR
SLC MOS GUIDANCE AND BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS INDICATED BETWEEN 69
AND 71 WHILE THE RAW GRIDS WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. BELIEVE
THE UPPER 60S MAY BE THE BETTER FORECAST BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO UPDATE SLC TEMP FORECAST.

REST OF PACKAGE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES THIS MORNING...WITH A
SWITCH TO LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 18-19Z PER NORM.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...STRUTHWOLF
AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 181101 CCA
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
421 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO MAINLY
SOUTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A MILD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE UNTIL THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT PLAINS WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CARVES ONTO THE WEST
COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS
EJECTING ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA AND INTO NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. IT
IS THIS DISTURBANCE THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEAK SHOWERS
CURRENTLY INDICATED ON RADAR OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OUT OF THE AREA TODAY...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY
A THREAT OF SHOWERS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
LARGER TROUGH.

AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG...IT WILL EVENTUALLY SPLIT
AND FORM A CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO
BORDER TOMORROW WHILE A MEAN RIDGE REDEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. AS A RESULT...NORTHERN UTAH WILL REMAIN DRY AND STABLE
TOMORROW WHILE THE SOUTH WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO AND VARY LITTLE EACH DAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL SHIFT BOTH THE RIDGE AND CLOSED LOW EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH. WILL SEE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS A
RESULT...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS...BUT NOT EXPECTING
NEARLY ENOUGH MIXING TO SEE THE FULL WARMING POTENTIAL OF THE 8C
700MB TEMPERATURES.

THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO JUST GRAZE NORTHWEST UTAH AS IT EJECTS
NORTHEAST IN FAVOR OF A TRAILING FEATURE WHICH LOOKS TO CARVE
FARTHER SOUTH. A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD WITH THESE TWO WAVES...BUT NEITHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OR LIFT. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER...NEITHER THE
GFS NOR EC ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EXTENT OF COOLING. FOR THE
TIME BEING...SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 9-10KFT.

AFTER THAT...A MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO
THE GREAT BASIN FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH 18-20Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN ARIZONA HAS USHERED MOISTURE
AND LIGHT SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING. THIS PRECIP
SHOULD TAPER BY SUNRISE BUT WILL LIKELY REGENERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL UTAH. THOUGH
PRIMARILY WEAK FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AMPLE MIXING
DEPTHS WILL FACILITATE ACCEPTABLE CLEARING INDICES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT ONLY OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM...IMPROVING INDICES
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 181101 CCA
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
421 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO MAINLY
SOUTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A MILD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE UNTIL THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT PLAINS WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CARVES ONTO THE WEST
COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS
EJECTING ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA AND INTO NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. IT
IS THIS DISTURBANCE THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEAK SHOWERS
CURRENTLY INDICATED ON RADAR OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OUT OF THE AREA TODAY...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY
A THREAT OF SHOWERS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
LARGER TROUGH.

AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG...IT WILL EVENTUALLY SPLIT
AND FORM A CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO
BORDER TOMORROW WHILE A MEAN RIDGE REDEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. AS A RESULT...NORTHERN UTAH WILL REMAIN DRY AND STABLE
TOMORROW WHILE THE SOUTH WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO AND VARY LITTLE EACH DAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL SHIFT BOTH THE RIDGE AND CLOSED LOW EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH. WILL SEE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS A
RESULT...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS...BUT NOT EXPECTING
NEARLY ENOUGH MIXING TO SEE THE FULL WARMING POTENTIAL OF THE 8C
700MB TEMPERATURES.

THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO JUST GRAZE NORTHWEST UTAH AS IT EJECTS
NORTHEAST IN FAVOR OF A TRAILING FEATURE WHICH LOOKS TO CARVE
FARTHER SOUTH. A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD WITH THESE TWO WAVES...BUT NEITHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OR LIFT. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER...NEITHER THE
GFS NOR EC ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EXTENT OF COOLING. FOR THE
TIME BEING...SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 9-10KFT.

AFTER THAT...A MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO
THE GREAT BASIN FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH 18-20Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN ARIZONA HAS USHERED MOISTURE
AND LIGHT SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING. THIS PRECIP
SHOULD TAPER BY SUNRISE BUT WILL LIKELY REGENERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL UTAH. THOUGH
PRIMARILY WEAK FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AMPLE MIXING
DEPTHS WILL FACILITATE ACCEPTABLE CLEARING INDICES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT ONLY OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM...IMPROVING INDICES
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 181101 CCA
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
421 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO MAINLY
SOUTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A MILD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE UNTIL THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT PLAINS WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CARVES ONTO THE WEST
COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS
EJECTING ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA AND INTO NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. IT
IS THIS DISTURBANCE THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEAK SHOWERS
CURRENTLY INDICATED ON RADAR OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OUT OF THE AREA TODAY...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY
A THREAT OF SHOWERS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
LARGER TROUGH.

AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG...IT WILL EVENTUALLY SPLIT
AND FORM A CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO
BORDER TOMORROW WHILE A MEAN RIDGE REDEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. AS A RESULT...NORTHERN UTAH WILL REMAIN DRY AND STABLE
TOMORROW WHILE THE SOUTH WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO AND VARY LITTLE EACH DAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL SHIFT BOTH THE RIDGE AND CLOSED LOW EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH. WILL SEE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS A
RESULT...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS...BUT NOT EXPECTING
NEARLY ENOUGH MIXING TO SEE THE FULL WARMING POTENTIAL OF THE 8C
700MB TEMPERATURES.

THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO JUST GRAZE NORTHWEST UTAH AS IT EJECTS
NORTHEAST IN FAVOR OF A TRAILING FEATURE WHICH LOOKS TO CARVE
FARTHER SOUTH. A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD WITH THESE TWO WAVES...BUT NEITHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OR LIFT. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER...NEITHER THE
GFS NOR EC ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EXTENT OF COOLING. FOR THE
TIME BEING...SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 9-10KFT.

AFTER THAT...A MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO
THE GREAT BASIN FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH 18-20Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN ARIZONA HAS USHERED MOISTURE
AND LIGHT SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING. THIS PRECIP
SHOULD TAPER BY SUNRISE BUT WILL LIKELY REGENERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL UTAH. THOUGH
PRIMARILY WEAK FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AMPLE MIXING
DEPTHS WILL FACILITATE ACCEPTABLE CLEARING INDICES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT ONLY OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM...IMPROVING INDICES
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 181101 CCA
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
421 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO MAINLY
SOUTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A MILD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE UNTIL THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT PLAINS WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CARVES ONTO THE WEST
COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS
EJECTING ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA AND INTO NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. IT
IS THIS DISTURBANCE THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEAK SHOWERS
CURRENTLY INDICATED ON RADAR OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OUT OF THE AREA TODAY...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY
A THREAT OF SHOWERS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
LARGER TROUGH.

AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG...IT WILL EVENTUALLY SPLIT
AND FORM A CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO
BORDER TOMORROW WHILE A MEAN RIDGE REDEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. AS A RESULT...NORTHERN UTAH WILL REMAIN DRY AND STABLE
TOMORROW WHILE THE SOUTH WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO AND VARY LITTLE EACH DAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL SHIFT BOTH THE RIDGE AND CLOSED LOW EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH. WILL SEE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS A
RESULT...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS...BUT NOT EXPECTING
NEARLY ENOUGH MIXING TO SEE THE FULL WARMING POTENTIAL OF THE 8C
700MB TEMPERATURES.

THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO JUST GRAZE NORTHWEST UTAH AS IT EJECTS
NORTHEAST IN FAVOR OF A TRAILING FEATURE WHICH LOOKS TO CARVE
FARTHER SOUTH. A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD WITH THESE TWO WAVES...BUT NEITHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OR LIFT. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER...NEITHER THE
GFS NOR EC ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EXTENT OF COOLING. FOR THE
TIME BEING...SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 9-10KFT.

AFTER THAT...A MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO
THE GREAT BASIN FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH 18-20Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN ARIZONA HAS USHERED MOISTURE
AND LIGHT SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING. THIS PRECIP
SHOULD TAPER BY SUNRISE BUT WILL LIKELY REGENERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL UTAH. THOUGH
PRIMARILY WEAK FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AMPLE MIXING
DEPTHS WILL FACILITATE ACCEPTABLE CLEARING INDICES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT ONLY OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM...IMPROVING INDICES
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 181101 CCA
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
421 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO MAINLY
SOUTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A MILD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE UNTIL THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT PLAINS WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CARVES ONTO THE WEST
COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS
EJECTING ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA AND INTO NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. IT
IS THIS DISTURBANCE THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEAK SHOWERS
CURRENTLY INDICATED ON RADAR OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OUT OF THE AREA TODAY...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY
A THREAT OF SHOWERS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
LARGER TROUGH.

AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG...IT WILL EVENTUALLY SPLIT
AND FORM A CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO
BORDER TOMORROW WHILE A MEAN RIDGE REDEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. AS A RESULT...NORTHERN UTAH WILL REMAIN DRY AND STABLE
TOMORROW WHILE THE SOUTH WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO AND VARY LITTLE EACH DAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL SHIFT BOTH THE RIDGE AND CLOSED LOW EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH. WILL SEE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS A
RESULT...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS...BUT NOT EXPECTING
NEARLY ENOUGH MIXING TO SEE THE FULL WARMING POTENTIAL OF THE 8C
700MB TEMPERATURES.

THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO JUST GRAZE NORTHWEST UTAH AS IT EJECTS
NORTHEAST IN FAVOR OF A TRAILING FEATURE WHICH LOOKS TO CARVE
FARTHER SOUTH. A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD WITH THESE TWO WAVES...BUT NEITHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OR LIFT. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER...NEITHER THE
GFS NOR EC ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EXTENT OF COOLING. FOR THE
TIME BEING...SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 9-10KFT.

AFTER THAT...A MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO
THE GREAT BASIN FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH 18-20Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN ARIZONA HAS USHERED MOISTURE
AND LIGHT SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING. THIS PRECIP
SHOULD TAPER BY SUNRISE BUT WILL LIKELY REGENERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL UTAH. THOUGH
PRIMARILY WEAK FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AMPLE MIXING
DEPTHS WILL FACILITATE ACCEPTABLE CLEARING INDICES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT ONLY OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM...IMPROVING INDICES
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 181101 CCA
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
421 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO MAINLY
SOUTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A MILD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE UNTIL THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT PLAINS WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CARVES ONTO THE WEST
COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS
EJECTING ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA AND INTO NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. IT
IS THIS DISTURBANCE THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEAK SHOWERS
CURRENTLY INDICATED ON RADAR OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OUT OF THE AREA TODAY...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY
A THREAT OF SHOWERS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
LARGER TROUGH.

AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG...IT WILL EVENTUALLY SPLIT
AND FORM A CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO
BORDER TOMORROW WHILE A MEAN RIDGE REDEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. AS A RESULT...NORTHERN UTAH WILL REMAIN DRY AND STABLE
TOMORROW WHILE THE SOUTH WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO AND VARY LITTLE EACH DAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL SHIFT BOTH THE RIDGE AND CLOSED LOW EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH. WILL SEE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS A
RESULT...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS...BUT NOT EXPECTING
NEARLY ENOUGH MIXING TO SEE THE FULL WARMING POTENTIAL OF THE 8C
700MB TEMPERATURES.

THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO JUST GRAZE NORTHWEST UTAH AS IT EJECTS
NORTHEAST IN FAVOR OF A TRAILING FEATURE WHICH LOOKS TO CARVE
FARTHER SOUTH. A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD WITH THESE TWO WAVES...BUT NEITHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OR LIFT. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER...NEITHER THE
GFS NOR EC ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EXTENT OF COOLING. FOR THE
TIME BEING...SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 9-10KFT.

AFTER THAT...A MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO
THE GREAT BASIN FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH 18-20Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN ARIZONA HAS USHERED MOISTURE
AND LIGHT SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING. THIS PRECIP
SHOULD TAPER BY SUNRISE BUT WILL LIKELY REGENERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL UTAH. THOUGH
PRIMARILY WEAK FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AMPLE MIXING
DEPTHS WILL FACILITATE ACCEPTABLE CLEARING INDICES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT ONLY OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM...IMPROVING INDICES
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 181101
AFDSLC
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
421 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO MAINLY
SOUTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A MILD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE UNTIL THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT PLAINS WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CARVES ONTO THE WEST
COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS
EJECTING ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA AND INTO NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. IT
IS THIS DISTURBANCE THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEAK SHOWERS
CURRENTLY INDICATED ON RADAR OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OUT OF THE AREA TODAY...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY
A THREAT OF SHOWERS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
LARGER TROUGH.

AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG...IT WILL EVENTUALLY SPLIT
AND FORM A CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO
BORDER TOMORROW WHILE A MEAN RIDGE REDEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. AS A RESULT...NORTHERN UTAH WILL REMAIN DRY AND STABLE
TOMORROW WHILE THE SOUTH WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO AND VARY LITTLE EACH DAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL SHIFT BOTH THE RIDGE AND CLOSED LOW EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH. WILL SEE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS A
RESULT...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS...BUT NOT EXPECTING
NEARLY ENOUGH MIXING TO SEE THE FULL WARMING POTENTIAL OF THE 8C
700MB TEMPERATURES.

THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO JUST GRAZE NORTHWEST UTAH AS IT EJECTS
NORTHEAST IN FAVOR OF A TRAILING FEATURE WHICH LOOKS TO CARVE
FARTHER SOUTH. A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD WITH THESE TWO WAVES...BUT NEITHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OR LIFT. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER...NEITHER THE
GFS NOR EC ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EXTENT OF COOLING. FOR THE
TIME BEING...SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 9-10KFT.

AFTER THAT...A MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO
THE GREAT BASIN FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH 18-20Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN ARIZONA HAS USHERED MOISTURE
AND LIGHT SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING. THIS PRECIP
SHOULD TAPER BY SUNRISE BUT WILL LIKELY REGENERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL UTAH. THOUGH
PRIMARILY WEAK FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AMPLE MIXING
DEPTHS WILL FACILITATE ACCEPTABLE CLEARING INDICES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT ONLY OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM...IMPROVING INDICES
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 181101
AFDSLC
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
421 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO MAINLY
SOUTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A MILD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE UNTIL THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT PLAINS WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CARVES ONTO THE WEST
COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS
EJECTING ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA AND INTO NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. IT
IS THIS DISTURBANCE THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEAK SHOWERS
CURRENTLY INDICATED ON RADAR OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OUT OF THE AREA TODAY...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY
A THREAT OF SHOWERS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
LARGER TROUGH.

AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG...IT WILL EVENTUALLY SPLIT
AND FORM A CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO
BORDER TOMORROW WHILE A MEAN RIDGE REDEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. AS A RESULT...NORTHERN UTAH WILL REMAIN DRY AND STABLE
TOMORROW WHILE THE SOUTH WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO AND VARY LITTLE EACH DAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL SHIFT BOTH THE RIDGE AND CLOSED LOW EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH. WILL SEE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS A
RESULT...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS...BUT NOT EXPECTING
NEARLY ENOUGH MIXING TO SEE THE FULL WARMING POTENTIAL OF THE 8C
700MB TEMPERATURES.

THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO JUST GRAZE NORTHWEST UTAH AS IT EJECTS
NORTHEAST IN FAVOR OF A TRAILING FEATURE WHICH LOOKS TO CARVE
FARTHER SOUTH. A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD WITH THESE TWO WAVES...BUT NEITHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OR LIFT. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER...NEITHER THE
GFS NOR EC ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EXTENT OF COOLING. FOR THE
TIME BEING...SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 9-10KFT.

AFTER THAT...A MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO
THE GREAT BASIN FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH 18-20Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN ARIZONA HAS USHERED MOISTURE
AND LIGHT SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING. THIS PRECIP
SHOULD TAPER BY SUNRISE BUT WILL LIKELY REGENERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL UTAH. THOUGH
PRIMARILY WEAK FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AMPLE MIXING
DEPTHS WILL FACILITATE ACCEPTABLE CLEARING INDICES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT ONLY OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM...IMPROVING INDICES
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 181021
AFDSLC
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1021 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO MAINLY
SOUTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A MILD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE UNTIL THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT PLAINS WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CARVES ONTO THE WEST
COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS
EJECTING ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA AND INTO NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. IT
IS THIS DISTURBANCE THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEAK SHOWERS
CURRENTLY INDICATED ON RADAR OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OUT OF THE AREA TODAY...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY
A THREAT OF SHOWERS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
LARGER TROUGH.

AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG...IT WILL EVENTUALLY SPLIT
AND FORM A CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO
BORDER TOMORROW WHILE A MEAN RIDGE REDEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. AS A RESULT...NORTHERN UTAH WILL REMAIN DRY AND STABLE
TOMORROW WHILE THE SOUTH WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO AND VARY LITTLE EACH DAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL SHIFT BOTH THE RIDGE AND CLOSED LOW EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH. WILL SEE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS A
RESULT...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS...BUT NOT EXPECTING
NEARLY ENOUGH MIXING TO SEE THE FULL WARMING POTENTIAL OF THE 8C
700MB TEMPERATURES.

THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO JUST GRAZE NORTHWEST UTAH AS IT EJECTS
NORTHEAST IN FAVOR OF A TRAILING FEATURE WHICH LOOKS TO CARVE
FARTHER SOUTH. A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD WITH THESE TWO WAVES...BUT NEITHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OR LIFT. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER...NEITHER THE
GFS NOR EC ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EXTENT OF COOLING. FOR THE
TIME BEING...SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 9-10KFT.

AFTER THAT...A MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO
THE GREAT BASIN FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH 18-20Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN ARIZONA HAS USHERED MOISTURE
AND LIGHT SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING. THIS PRECIP
SHOULD TAPER BY SUNRISE BUT WILL LIKELY REGENERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL UTAH. THOUGH
PRIMARILY WEAK FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AMPLE MIXING
DEPTHS WILL FACILITATE ACCEPTABLE CLEARING INDICES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT ONLY OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM...IMPROVING INDICES
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 181021 CCA
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1021 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO MAINLY
SOUTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A MILD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE UNTIL THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT PLAINS WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CARVES ONTO THE WEST
COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS
EJECTING ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA AND INTO NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. IT
IS THIS DISTURBANCE THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEAK SHOWERS
CURRENTLY INDICATED ON RADAR OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OUT OF THE AREA TODAY...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY
A THREAT OF SHOWERS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
LARGER TROUGH.

AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG...IT WILL EVENTUALLY SPLIT
AND FORM A CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO
BORDER TOMORROW WHILE A MEAN RIDGE REDEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. AS A RESULT...NORTHERN UTAH WILL REMAIN DRY AND STABLE
TOMORROW WHILE THE SOUTH WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO AND VARY LITTLE EACH DAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL SHIFT BOTH THE RIDGE AND CLOSED LOW EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH. WILL SEE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS A
RESULT...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS...BUT NOT EXPECTING
NEARLY ENOUGH MIXING TO SEE THE FULL WARMING POTENTIAL OF THE 8C
700MB TEMPERATURES.

THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO JUST GRAZE NORTHWEST UTAH AS IT EJECTS
NORTHEAST IN FAVOR OF A TRAILING FEATURE WHICH LOOKS TO CARVE
FARTHER SOUTH. A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD WITH THESE TWO WAVES...BUT NEITHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OR LIFT. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER...NEITHER THE
GFS NOR EC ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EXTENT OF COOLING. FOR THE
TIME BEING...SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 9-10KFT.

AFTER THAT...A MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO
THE GREAT BASIN FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH 18-20Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN ARIZONA HAS USHERED MOISTURE
AND LIGHT SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING. THIS PRECIP
SHOULD TAPER BY SUNRISE BUT WILL LIKELY REGENERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL UTAH. THOUGH
PRIMARILY WEAK FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AMPLE MIXING
DEPTHS WILL FACILITATE ACCEPTABLE CLEARING INDICES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT ONLY OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM...IMPROVING INDICES
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 181021 CCA
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1021 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO MAINLY
SOUTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A MILD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE UNTIL THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT PLAINS WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CARVES ONTO THE WEST
COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS
EJECTING ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA AND INTO NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. IT
IS THIS DISTURBANCE THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEAK SHOWERS
CURRENTLY INDICATED ON RADAR OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OUT OF THE AREA TODAY...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY
A THREAT OF SHOWERS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
LARGER TROUGH.

AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG...IT WILL EVENTUALLY SPLIT
AND FORM A CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO
BORDER TOMORROW WHILE A MEAN RIDGE REDEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. AS A RESULT...NORTHERN UTAH WILL REMAIN DRY AND STABLE
TOMORROW WHILE THE SOUTH WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO AND VARY LITTLE EACH DAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL SHIFT BOTH THE RIDGE AND CLOSED LOW EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH. WILL SEE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS A
RESULT...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS...BUT NOT EXPECTING
NEARLY ENOUGH MIXING TO SEE THE FULL WARMING POTENTIAL OF THE 8C
700MB TEMPERATURES.

THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO JUST GRAZE NORTHWEST UTAH AS IT EJECTS
NORTHEAST IN FAVOR OF A TRAILING FEATURE WHICH LOOKS TO CARVE
FARTHER SOUTH. A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD WITH THESE TWO WAVES...BUT NEITHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OR LIFT. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER...NEITHER THE
GFS NOR EC ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EXTENT OF COOLING. FOR THE
TIME BEING...SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 9-10KFT.

AFTER THAT...A MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO
THE GREAT BASIN FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH 18-20Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN ARIZONA HAS USHERED MOISTURE
AND LIGHT SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING. THIS PRECIP
SHOULD TAPER BY SUNRISE BUT WILL LIKELY REGENERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL UTAH. THOUGH
PRIMARILY WEAK FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AMPLE MIXING
DEPTHS WILL FACILITATE ACCEPTABLE CLEARING INDICES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT ONLY OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM...IMPROVING INDICES
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




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