Home > Products > State Listing > Utah Data
Latest:
 AFDSLC |
  [top]

000
FXUS65 KSLC 062236
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
336 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL
MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY)...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE
POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST STATES WILL SERVE TO CONTINUE THE
DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. A SLIGHT SHIFT OF
THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE HAVE LITTLE CHANCE AT GENERATING PRECIP AS
ANY DYNAMIC LIFT WILL BE WEAK WITH A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS UTAH. IMPACTS FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND AGAIN MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
CLIMB EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH READINGS GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT RISK OF PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OUTSIDE OF A BIT OF COOLING THURSDAY...LITTLE
IMPACT IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS AT THE KSLC TERMINAL WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 02-04Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 062236
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
336 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL
MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY)...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE
POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST STATES WILL SERVE TO CONTINUE THE
DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. A SLIGHT SHIFT OF
THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE HAVE LITTLE CHANCE AT GENERATING PRECIP AS
ANY DYNAMIC LIFT WILL BE WEAK WITH A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS UTAH. IMPACTS FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND AGAIN MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
CLIMB EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH READINGS GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT RISK OF PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OUTSIDE OF A BIT OF COOLING THURSDAY...LITTLE
IMPACT IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS AT THE KSLC TERMINAL WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 02-04Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 062236
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
336 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL
MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY)...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE
POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST STATES WILL SERVE TO CONTINUE THE
DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. A SLIGHT SHIFT OF
THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE HAVE LITTLE CHANCE AT GENERATING PRECIP AS
ANY DYNAMIC LIFT WILL BE WEAK WITH A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS UTAH. IMPACTS FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND AGAIN MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
CLIMB EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH READINGS GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT RISK OF PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OUTSIDE OF A BIT OF COOLING THURSDAY...LITTLE
IMPACT IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS AT THE KSLC TERMINAL WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 02-04Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 062236
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
336 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL
MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY)...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE
POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST STATES WILL SERVE TO CONTINUE THE
DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. A SLIGHT SHIFT OF
THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE HAVE LITTLE CHANCE AT GENERATING PRECIP AS
ANY DYNAMIC LIFT WILL BE WEAK WITH A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS UTAH. IMPACTS FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND AGAIN MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
CLIMB EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH READINGS GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT RISK OF PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OUTSIDE OF A BIT OF COOLING THURSDAY...LITTLE
IMPACT IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS AT THE KSLC TERMINAL WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 02-04Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 061639
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
939 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO THE WEST OF UTAH
WILL SERVE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND CONDITIONS DRY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE WEST
COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUALLY WARMING TREND
ACROSS UTAH THROUGH SATURDAY. THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL SHIFT
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST LATE SATURDAY...ALLOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO
DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH UTAH SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL ENCOUNTER A RATHER DRY/STABLE AIR MASS AND WILL LIKELY
GENERATE LITTLE MORE THAN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO DRAG IN MODESTLY COOLER AIR
ALOFT...LEADING TO TEMPS EITHER LEVELING OFF OR DROPPING A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISH AGAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS WILL RESUME THEIR CLIMB ON MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS AT THE KSLC TERMINAL WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO A LIGHT NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-20Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CONGER
AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 061639
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
939 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO THE WEST OF UTAH
WILL SERVE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND CONDITIONS DRY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE WEST
COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUALLY WARMING TREND
ACROSS UTAH THROUGH SATURDAY. THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL SHIFT
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST LATE SATURDAY...ALLOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO
DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH UTAH SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL ENCOUNTER A RATHER DRY/STABLE AIR MASS AND WILL LIKELY
GENERATE LITTLE MORE THAN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO DRAG IN MODESTLY COOLER AIR
ALOFT...LEADING TO TEMPS EITHER LEVELING OFF OR DROPPING A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISH AGAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS WILL RESUME THEIR CLIMB ON MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS AT THE KSLC TERMINAL WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO A LIGHT NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-20Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CONGER
AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 061055
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
354 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND GENERALLY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)...A BLOCKING PATTERN CREATED BY THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST STATES AND A WEAK
CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW. A DRY
AND STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER UTAH IN THE
MEANTIME...BUT THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE.

THE LOW IS PROGGED TO EJECT SOUTHEAST TOMORROW NIGHT WHILE THE RIDGE
RETROGRADES...ALLOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DROP INTO UTAH ON
SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE...WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND LITTLE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO COOL 2-3 DEGREES AT 700MB...BUT
OTHERWISE THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PASS WITHOUT MUCH NOTICEABLE
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER.

&&

LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z MONDAY)...NORTHWARD RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ALONG
THE WESTERN COASTAL STATES WILL DRIVE YET ANOTHER WARMING TREND
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN IN THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME. H7 TEMPS AT
KSLC PROGGED BY BOTH GFS/ECMWF TO CLIMB MODESTLY FROM -5 C TO +1 C
DURING THAT PERIOD...AND COUPLED WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WED...EXPECTING TEMPS TO RUN 5 TO 10 AND TRENDING 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST ALL AREAS EARLY/MID WEEK.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING STRENGTH OF THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH JET ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND EVOLUTION OF
THE CLOSED LOW TO ITS NORTH MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. 00Z RUNS INDICATING
A WEAKER COASTAL IMPINGEMENT OF THE NEAR ZONAL JET...WITH BULK OF
REMNANT TROUGH ENERGY TRACKING NORTH. THOUGH THE RIDGE DOES STILL
FLATTEN DUE TO SOME INFLUENCE OF SAID JET...AND MODEST
COOLING/MOISTENING REMAINS ON TAP LOCALLY...CHANCES OF A TROUGH OF
ANY SIGNIFICANCE LOCALLY HAVE TRENDED LOWER OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
RETAINED A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IN GRIDS BUT DID TREND THE ALREADY
MEAGER POPS EVEN LOWER WED EVENING ON THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS AT THE KSLC TERMINAL WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO A LIGHT NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-20Z PER NORM. VFR
CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE RETAINED.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 061055
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
354 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND GENERALLY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)...A BLOCKING PATTERN CREATED BY THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST STATES AND A WEAK
CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW. A DRY
AND STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER UTAH IN THE
MEANTIME...BUT THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE.

THE LOW IS PROGGED TO EJECT SOUTHEAST TOMORROW NIGHT WHILE THE RIDGE
RETROGRADES...ALLOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DROP INTO UTAH ON
SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE...WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND LITTLE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO COOL 2-3 DEGREES AT 700MB...BUT
OTHERWISE THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PASS WITHOUT MUCH NOTICEABLE
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER.

&&

LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z MONDAY)...NORTHWARD RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ALONG
THE WESTERN COASTAL STATES WILL DRIVE YET ANOTHER WARMING TREND
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN IN THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME. H7 TEMPS AT
KSLC PROGGED BY BOTH GFS/ECMWF TO CLIMB MODESTLY FROM -5 C TO +1 C
DURING THAT PERIOD...AND COUPLED WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WED...EXPECTING TEMPS TO RUN 5 TO 10 AND TRENDING 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST ALL AREAS EARLY/MID WEEK.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING STRENGTH OF THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH JET ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND EVOLUTION OF
THE CLOSED LOW TO ITS NORTH MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. 00Z RUNS INDICATING
A WEAKER COASTAL IMPINGEMENT OF THE NEAR ZONAL JET...WITH BULK OF
REMNANT TROUGH ENERGY TRACKING NORTH. THOUGH THE RIDGE DOES STILL
FLATTEN DUE TO SOME INFLUENCE OF SAID JET...AND MODEST
COOLING/MOISTENING REMAINS ON TAP LOCALLY...CHANCES OF A TROUGH OF
ANY SIGNIFICANCE LOCALLY HAVE TRENDED LOWER OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
RETAINED A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IN GRIDS BUT DID TREND THE ALREADY
MEAGER POPS EVEN LOWER WED EVENING ON THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS AT THE KSLC TERMINAL WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO A LIGHT NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-20Z PER NORM. VFR
CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE RETAINED.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 061055
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
354 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND GENERALLY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)...A BLOCKING PATTERN CREATED BY THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST STATES AND A WEAK
CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW. A DRY
AND STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER UTAH IN THE
MEANTIME...BUT THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE.

THE LOW IS PROGGED TO EJECT SOUTHEAST TOMORROW NIGHT WHILE THE RIDGE
RETROGRADES...ALLOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DROP INTO UTAH ON
SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE...WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND LITTLE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO COOL 2-3 DEGREES AT 700MB...BUT
OTHERWISE THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PASS WITHOUT MUCH NOTICEABLE
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER.

&&

LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z MONDAY)...NORTHWARD RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ALONG
THE WESTERN COASTAL STATES WILL DRIVE YET ANOTHER WARMING TREND
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN IN THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME. H7 TEMPS AT
KSLC PROGGED BY BOTH GFS/ECMWF TO CLIMB MODESTLY FROM -5 C TO +1 C
DURING THAT PERIOD...AND COUPLED WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WED...EXPECTING TEMPS TO RUN 5 TO 10 AND TRENDING 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST ALL AREAS EARLY/MID WEEK.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING STRENGTH OF THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH JET ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND EVOLUTION OF
THE CLOSED LOW TO ITS NORTH MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. 00Z RUNS INDICATING
A WEAKER COASTAL IMPINGEMENT OF THE NEAR ZONAL JET...WITH BULK OF
REMNANT TROUGH ENERGY TRACKING NORTH. THOUGH THE RIDGE DOES STILL
FLATTEN DUE TO SOME INFLUENCE OF SAID JET...AND MODEST
COOLING/MOISTENING REMAINS ON TAP LOCALLY...CHANCES OF A TROUGH OF
ANY SIGNIFICANCE LOCALLY HAVE TRENDED LOWER OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
RETAINED A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IN GRIDS BUT DID TREND THE ALREADY
MEAGER POPS EVEN LOWER WED EVENING ON THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS AT THE KSLC TERMINAL WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO A LIGHT NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-20Z PER NORM. VFR
CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE RETAINED.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 061055
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
354 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND GENERALLY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)...A BLOCKING PATTERN CREATED BY THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST STATES AND A WEAK
CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW. A DRY
AND STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER UTAH IN THE
MEANTIME...BUT THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE.

THE LOW IS PROGGED TO EJECT SOUTHEAST TOMORROW NIGHT WHILE THE RIDGE
RETROGRADES...ALLOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DROP INTO UTAH ON
SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE...WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND LITTLE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO COOL 2-3 DEGREES AT 700MB...BUT
OTHERWISE THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PASS WITHOUT MUCH NOTICEABLE
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER.

&&

LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z MONDAY)...NORTHWARD RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ALONG
THE WESTERN COASTAL STATES WILL DRIVE YET ANOTHER WARMING TREND
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN IN THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME. H7 TEMPS AT
KSLC PROGGED BY BOTH GFS/ECMWF TO CLIMB MODESTLY FROM -5 C TO +1 C
DURING THAT PERIOD...AND COUPLED WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WED...EXPECTING TEMPS TO RUN 5 TO 10 AND TRENDING 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST ALL AREAS EARLY/MID WEEK.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING STRENGTH OF THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH JET ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND EVOLUTION OF
THE CLOSED LOW TO ITS NORTH MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. 00Z RUNS INDICATING
A WEAKER COASTAL IMPINGEMENT OF THE NEAR ZONAL JET...WITH BULK OF
REMNANT TROUGH ENERGY TRACKING NORTH. THOUGH THE RIDGE DOES STILL
FLATTEN DUE TO SOME INFLUENCE OF SAID JET...AND MODEST
COOLING/MOISTENING REMAINS ON TAP LOCALLY...CHANCES OF A TROUGH OF
ANY SIGNIFICANCE LOCALLY HAVE TRENDED LOWER OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
RETAINED A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IN GRIDS BUT DID TREND THE ALREADY
MEAGER POPS EVEN LOWER WED EVENING ON THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS AT THE KSLC TERMINAL WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO A LIGHT NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-20Z PER NORM. VFR
CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE RETAINED.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 060308
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
808 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND GENERALLY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DUE TO MECHANICAL ISSUES...THERE WAS NO 00Z KSLC RAOB THIS
EVENING.

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE DOMINATING THE WESTERN CONUS. AMDAR
400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS PLACE A ANTICYCLONIC 65-125KT JET FROM
WESTERN CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. GOES/GPS/RAP INDICATE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.05-0.10" MOUNTAINS...TO
0.20-0.25" MOST VALLEYS. BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT
INDICATES AN ABNORMALLY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE WEST...WITH A
MOISTURE TAP ACROSS WESTERN CANADA.

WITH RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT GOING FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE. A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE RIDGE INTO NORTHERN UTAH...BUT
SOUTHERN UTAH SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE CURVE BASED
ON OBSERVATIONS AND LAMP GUIDANCE. REST UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT LOCKED IN ON THE WEST COAST MAINTAIN
STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR 700MB WARMING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WILL KEEP THE WARMING
TREND GOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE DAYS.

WEAK SHORTWAVES CRESTING THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL DO LITTLE TO
WEAKEN THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT THESE SHORTWAVES WILL TAKE A SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST TRACK THROUGH UTAH THIS WEEKEND. THE THREAT OF PRECIP
STILL LOOKS TO BE REMOTE AS THE DYNAMIC LIFT IS MINIMAL AND THE
AMBIENT AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE DRY. MODEST LOW-LEVEL COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH ON SUNDAY.

THE WEAK WAVE ON SUNDAY WILL LEAVE A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BUT WARMING RETURNS QUICKLY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE RE-
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST. THAT RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN ON TUESDAY...AND COMBINED WITH A SLOWLY INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 10 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ABOVE
NORMAL ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MODELS HAVE
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE INITIAL TIMING OF THE NEXT
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN INTO THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH CLOUD COVER
WILL START TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES
COULD STILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH GOOD MIXING AND EVEN
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WITH BETTER AGREEMENT IN THIS
APPROACHING TROUGH...HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH DECENT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BRING COOLER AND MOISTER AIR INTO THE FORECAST
AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS AGREE THAT THE
BULK OF THE TROUGH...INCLUDING THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL...STAYS
OVER CALIFORNIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH ONLY
WEAKER AND SHALLOWER FORCING OVER UTAH. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT POPS
RELATIVELY CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW...ESPECIALLY WITH THE 18Z GFS
TRENDING DRIER WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE. BEYOND THURSDAY...DETAILS
BEGIN TO DIFFER BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH THE TROUGH WANDERING
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE WEST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE
MINIMAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/CONGER/SCHOENING
AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 060308
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
808 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND GENERALLY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DUE TO MECHANICAL ISSUES...THERE WAS NO 00Z KSLC RAOB THIS
EVENING.

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE DOMINATING THE WESTERN CONUS. AMDAR
400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS PLACE A ANTICYCLONIC 65-125KT JET FROM
WESTERN CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. GOES/GPS/RAP INDICATE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.05-0.10" MOUNTAINS...TO
0.20-0.25" MOST VALLEYS. BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT
INDICATES AN ABNORMALLY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE WEST...WITH A
MOISTURE TAP ACROSS WESTERN CANADA.

WITH RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT GOING FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE. A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE RIDGE INTO NORTHERN UTAH...BUT
SOUTHERN UTAH SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE CURVE BASED
ON OBSERVATIONS AND LAMP GUIDANCE. REST UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT LOCKED IN ON THE WEST COAST MAINTAIN
STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR 700MB WARMING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WILL KEEP THE WARMING
TREND GOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE DAYS.

WEAK SHORTWAVES CRESTING THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL DO LITTLE TO
WEAKEN THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT THESE SHORTWAVES WILL TAKE A SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST TRACK THROUGH UTAH THIS WEEKEND. THE THREAT OF PRECIP
STILL LOOKS TO BE REMOTE AS THE DYNAMIC LIFT IS MINIMAL AND THE
AMBIENT AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE DRY. MODEST LOW-LEVEL COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH ON SUNDAY.

THE WEAK WAVE ON SUNDAY WILL LEAVE A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BUT WARMING RETURNS QUICKLY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE RE-
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST. THAT RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN ON TUESDAY...AND COMBINED WITH A SLOWLY INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 10 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ABOVE
NORMAL ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MODELS HAVE
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE INITIAL TIMING OF THE NEXT
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN INTO THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH CLOUD COVER
WILL START TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES
COULD STILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH GOOD MIXING AND EVEN
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WITH BETTER AGREEMENT IN THIS
APPROACHING TROUGH...HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH DECENT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BRING COOLER AND MOISTER AIR INTO THE FORECAST
AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS AGREE THAT THE
BULK OF THE TROUGH...INCLUDING THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL...STAYS
OVER CALIFORNIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH ONLY
WEAKER AND SHALLOWER FORCING OVER UTAH. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT POPS
RELATIVELY CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW...ESPECIALLY WITH THE 18Z GFS
TRENDING DRIER WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE. BEYOND THURSDAY...DETAILS
BEGIN TO DIFFER BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH THE TROUGH WANDERING
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE WEST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE
MINIMAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/CONGER/SCHOENING
AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 060308
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
808 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND GENERALLY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DUE TO MECHANICAL ISSUES...THERE WAS NO 00Z KSLC RAOB THIS
EVENING.

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE DOMINATING THE WESTERN CONUS. AMDAR
400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS PLACE A ANTICYCLONIC 65-125KT JET FROM
WESTERN CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. GOES/GPS/RAP INDICATE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.05-0.10" MOUNTAINS...TO
0.20-0.25" MOST VALLEYS. BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT
INDICATES AN ABNORMALLY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE WEST...WITH A
MOISTURE TAP ACROSS WESTERN CANADA.

WITH RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT GOING FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE. A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE RIDGE INTO NORTHERN UTAH...BUT
SOUTHERN UTAH SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE CURVE BASED
ON OBSERVATIONS AND LAMP GUIDANCE. REST UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT LOCKED IN ON THE WEST COAST MAINTAIN
STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR 700MB WARMING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WILL KEEP THE WARMING
TREND GOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE DAYS.

WEAK SHORTWAVES CRESTING THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL DO LITTLE TO
WEAKEN THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT THESE SHORTWAVES WILL TAKE A SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST TRACK THROUGH UTAH THIS WEEKEND. THE THREAT OF PRECIP
STILL LOOKS TO BE REMOTE AS THE DYNAMIC LIFT IS MINIMAL AND THE
AMBIENT AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE DRY. MODEST LOW-LEVEL COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH ON SUNDAY.

THE WEAK WAVE ON SUNDAY WILL LEAVE A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BUT WARMING RETURNS QUICKLY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE RE-
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST. THAT RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN ON TUESDAY...AND COMBINED WITH A SLOWLY INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 10 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ABOVE
NORMAL ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MODELS HAVE
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE INITIAL TIMING OF THE NEXT
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN INTO THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH CLOUD COVER
WILL START TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES
COULD STILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH GOOD MIXING AND EVEN
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WITH BETTER AGREEMENT IN THIS
APPROACHING TROUGH...HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH DECENT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BRING COOLER AND MOISTER AIR INTO THE FORECAST
AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS AGREE THAT THE
BULK OF THE TROUGH...INCLUDING THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL...STAYS
OVER CALIFORNIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH ONLY
WEAKER AND SHALLOWER FORCING OVER UTAH. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT POPS
RELATIVELY CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW...ESPECIALLY WITH THE 18Z GFS
TRENDING DRIER WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE. BEYOND THURSDAY...DETAILS
BEGIN TO DIFFER BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH THE TROUGH WANDERING
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE WEST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE
MINIMAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/CONGER/SCHOENING
AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 052242
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
342 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND GENERALLY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z MONDAY)...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
LOCKED IN ON THE WEST COAST MAINTAIN STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEAR 700MB WARMING THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY WILL KEEP THE WARMING TREND GOING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE DAYS.

WEAK SHORTWAVES CRESTING THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL DO LITTLE TO
WEAKEN THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT THESE SHORTWAVES WILL TAKE A SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST TRACK THROUGH UTAH THIS WEEKEND. THE THREAT OF PRECIP
STILL LOOKS TO BE REMOTE AS THE DYNAMIC LIFT IS MINIMAL AND THE
AMBIENT AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE DRY. MODEST LOW-LEVEL COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...THE WEAK WAVE ON SUNDAY WILL LEAVE A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE...BUT WARMING RETURNS QUICKLY ON
MONDAY AS THE RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST. THAT RIDGE
SHIFTS OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY...AND COMBINED WITH A SLOWLY
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 10
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MODELS HAVE
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE INITIAL TIMING OF THE NEXT
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN INTO THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH CLOUD COVER
WILL START TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES
COULD STILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH GOOD MIXING AND EVEN
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WITH BETTER AGREEMENT IN THIS
APPROACHING TROUGH...HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH DECENT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BRING COOLER AND MOISTER AIR INTO THE FORECAST
AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS AGREE THAT THE
BULK OF THE TROUGH...INCLUDING THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL...STAYS
OVER CALIFORNIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH ONLY
WEAKER AND SHALLOWER FORCING OVER UTAH. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT POPS
RELATIVELY CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW...ESPECIALLY WITH THE 18Z GFS
TRENDING DRIER WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE. BEYOND THURSDAY...DETAILS
BEGIN TO DIFFER BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH THE TROUGH WANDERING
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE WEST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH BACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 052242
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
342 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND GENERALLY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z MONDAY)...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
LOCKED IN ON THE WEST COAST MAINTAIN STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEAR 700MB WARMING THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY WILL KEEP THE WARMING TREND GOING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE DAYS.

WEAK SHORTWAVES CRESTING THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL DO LITTLE TO
WEAKEN THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT THESE SHORTWAVES WILL TAKE A SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST TRACK THROUGH UTAH THIS WEEKEND. THE THREAT OF PRECIP
STILL LOOKS TO BE REMOTE AS THE DYNAMIC LIFT IS MINIMAL AND THE
AMBIENT AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE DRY. MODEST LOW-LEVEL COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...THE WEAK WAVE ON SUNDAY WILL LEAVE A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE...BUT WARMING RETURNS QUICKLY ON
MONDAY AS THE RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST. THAT RIDGE
SHIFTS OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY...AND COMBINED WITH A SLOWLY
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 10
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MODELS HAVE
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE INITIAL TIMING OF THE NEXT
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN INTO THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH CLOUD COVER
WILL START TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES
COULD STILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH GOOD MIXING AND EVEN
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WITH BETTER AGREEMENT IN THIS
APPROACHING TROUGH...HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH DECENT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BRING COOLER AND MOISTER AIR INTO THE FORECAST
AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS AGREE THAT THE
BULK OF THE TROUGH...INCLUDING THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL...STAYS
OVER CALIFORNIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH ONLY
WEAKER AND SHALLOWER FORCING OVER UTAH. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT POPS
RELATIVELY CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW...ESPECIALLY WITH THE 18Z GFS
TRENDING DRIER WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE. BEYOND THURSDAY...DETAILS
BEGIN TO DIFFER BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH THE TROUGH WANDERING
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE WEST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH BACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 051617
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
917 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST
STATES WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT POSITIONED OVER THE WEST
COAST STATES WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STABLE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL GRADUALLY WARM THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RESULTING IN TEMPS CLIMBING TO READINGS
ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CRESTING THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE
FEATURES WILL GENERATE MINIMAL LIFT AND WILL ENCOUNTER DRY/STABLE
AIR OVER UTAH. SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR 700MB TEMPS ALONG WITH SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL HAVE A MINOR IMPACT ON TEMPS ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH NO REAL THREAT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-20Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CONGER
AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 051617
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
917 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST
STATES WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT POSITIONED OVER THE WEST
COAST STATES WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STABLE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL GRADUALLY WARM THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RESULTING IN TEMPS CLIMBING TO READINGS
ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CRESTING THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE
FEATURES WILL GENERATE MINIMAL LIFT AND WILL ENCOUNTER DRY/STABLE
AIR OVER UTAH. SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR 700MB TEMPS ALONG WITH SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL HAVE A MINOR IMPACT ON TEMPS ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH NO REAL THREAT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-20Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CONGER
AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 051617
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
917 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST
STATES WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT POSITIONED OVER THE WEST
COAST STATES WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STABLE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL GRADUALLY WARM THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RESULTING IN TEMPS CLIMBING TO READINGS
ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CRESTING THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE
FEATURES WILL GENERATE MINIMAL LIFT AND WILL ENCOUNTER DRY/STABLE
AIR OVER UTAH. SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR 700MB TEMPS ALONG WITH SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL HAVE A MINOR IMPACT ON TEMPS ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH NO REAL THREAT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-20Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CONGER
AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 051617
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
917 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST
STATES WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT POSITIONED OVER THE WEST
COAST STATES WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STABLE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL GRADUALLY WARM THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RESULTING IN TEMPS CLIMBING TO READINGS
ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CRESTING THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE
FEATURES WILL GENERATE MINIMAL LIFT AND WILL ENCOUNTER DRY/STABLE
AIR OVER UTAH. SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR 700MB TEMPS ALONG WITH SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL HAVE A MINOR IMPACT ON TEMPS ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH NO REAL THREAT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-20Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CONGER
AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 051617
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
917 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST
STATES WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT POSITIONED OVER THE WEST
COAST STATES WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STABLE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL GRADUALLY WARM THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RESULTING IN TEMPS CLIMBING TO READINGS
ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CRESTING THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE
FEATURES WILL GENERATE MINIMAL LIFT AND WILL ENCOUNTER DRY/STABLE
AIR OVER UTAH. SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR 700MB TEMPS ALONG WITH SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL HAVE A MINOR IMPACT ON TEMPS ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH NO REAL THREAT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-20Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CONGER
AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 051059
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
359 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES WILL
BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY)...RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE WEST
COAST WILL KEEP A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER UTAH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE AREA...WITH
JUST SOME OCCASIONAL MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DRIFT THROUGH THE
AREA. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INLAND THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LEADING
TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS MOST AREAS TODAY...THEY SHOULD TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL
TOMORROW AND ABOVE THAT FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z SUNDAY)...MINIMAL CHANGE IN GLOBAL MODELS
REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN REMAINING ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF A STRONG WEST COAST
RIDGE...STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH TEMPS
RUNNING SOME 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO MOST ALL AREAS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

SOME CHANGE REMAINS ON TAP MID/LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT DETAILS IN LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION REMAIN INCONSISTENT BOTH MODEL TO MODEL AND
RUN TO RUN. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BREAKDOWN OF THE
WEST COAST RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED...BUT DIFFER IN BOTH THE
PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN BRANCH JET...AND
DOWNSTREAM EVOLUTION OF A CLOSED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
THE EC HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE TROUGH
EVOLUTION BRINGING A WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
LATE WEEK...BUT HAS SLOWED IN TIMING OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. THE
00/06Z GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH SAID TROUGH AND IMPINGES
MORE OF A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA MID/LATE WEEK. NEEDLESS
TO SAY NEED MORE CONSISTENCY FOR HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL
CHANGES TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT REMAIN CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR A
MARGINAL COOL DOWN AND NEAR CLIMO POPS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-20Z...WHILE VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 051059
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
359 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES WILL
BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY)...RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE WEST
COAST WILL KEEP A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER UTAH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE AREA...WITH
JUST SOME OCCASIONAL MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DRIFT THROUGH THE
AREA. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INLAND THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LEADING
TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS MOST AREAS TODAY...THEY SHOULD TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL
TOMORROW AND ABOVE THAT FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z SUNDAY)...MINIMAL CHANGE IN GLOBAL MODELS
REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN REMAINING ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF A STRONG WEST COAST
RIDGE...STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH TEMPS
RUNNING SOME 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO MOST ALL AREAS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

SOME CHANGE REMAINS ON TAP MID/LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT DETAILS IN LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION REMAIN INCONSISTENT BOTH MODEL TO MODEL AND
RUN TO RUN. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BREAKDOWN OF THE
WEST COAST RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED...BUT DIFFER IN BOTH THE
PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN BRANCH JET...AND
DOWNSTREAM EVOLUTION OF A CLOSED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
THE EC HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE TROUGH
EVOLUTION BRINGING A WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
LATE WEEK...BUT HAS SLOWED IN TIMING OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. THE
00/06Z GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH SAID TROUGH AND IMPINGES
MORE OF A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA MID/LATE WEEK. NEEDLESS
TO SAY NEED MORE CONSISTENCY FOR HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL
CHANGES TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT REMAIN CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR A
MARGINAL COOL DOWN AND NEAR CLIMO POPS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-20Z...WHILE VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 051059
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
359 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES WILL
BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY)...RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE WEST
COAST WILL KEEP A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER UTAH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE AREA...WITH
JUST SOME OCCASIONAL MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DRIFT THROUGH THE
AREA. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INLAND THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LEADING
TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS MOST AREAS TODAY...THEY SHOULD TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL
TOMORROW AND ABOVE THAT FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z SUNDAY)...MINIMAL CHANGE IN GLOBAL MODELS
REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN REMAINING ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF A STRONG WEST COAST
RIDGE...STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH TEMPS
RUNNING SOME 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO MOST ALL AREAS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

SOME CHANGE REMAINS ON TAP MID/LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT DETAILS IN LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION REMAIN INCONSISTENT BOTH MODEL TO MODEL AND
RUN TO RUN. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BREAKDOWN OF THE
WEST COAST RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED...BUT DIFFER IN BOTH THE
PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN BRANCH JET...AND
DOWNSTREAM EVOLUTION OF A CLOSED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
THE EC HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE TROUGH
EVOLUTION BRINGING A WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
LATE WEEK...BUT HAS SLOWED IN TIMING OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. THE
00/06Z GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH SAID TROUGH AND IMPINGES
MORE OF A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA MID/LATE WEEK. NEEDLESS
TO SAY NEED MORE CONSISTENCY FOR HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL
CHANGES TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT REMAIN CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR A
MARGINAL COOL DOWN AND NEAR CLIMO POPS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-20Z...WHILE VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 050344
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
844 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES WILL
BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL RIDGING SITUATED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST
IS INDUCING A DRY...COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD INLAND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND
STATEWIDE. ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST THIS RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING FOR A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW INTO THE INTERIOR WEST. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL
PATTERN SHIFT IS STILL OVER A WEEK OUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

IN THE NEAR TERM SKIES HAVE CLEARED THIS EVENING THUS HAVE
UPDATED GRIDS TO REMOVE ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER. GOING FORECAST
LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...REMAINING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z THURSDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 050344
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
844 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES WILL
BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL RIDGING SITUATED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST
IS INDUCING A DRY...COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD INLAND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND
STATEWIDE. ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST THIS RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING FOR A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW INTO THE INTERIOR WEST. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL
PATTERN SHIFT IS STILL OVER A WEEK OUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

IN THE NEAR TERM SKIES HAVE CLEARED THIS EVENING THUS HAVE
UPDATED GRIDS TO REMOVE ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER. GOING FORECAST
LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...REMAINING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z THURSDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities