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000
FXUS65 KSLC 301030
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
430 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. THE PARENT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRUSH NORTHERN UTAH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL RETURN
FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)...AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH NORTHERN UT THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS CROSSES NORTHERN UT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN UT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
UT...AND THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
MEANWHILE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.

AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN UT THIS
AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY BASED ON THE SREF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MINIMAL...AND LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80. THIS IS
ALSO WHERE MOST MODELS CONFINE ANY QPF THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUS
HAVE LARGELY RESTRICTED POPS TO THESE AREAS...WITH AN ADDITIONAL
CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WASATCH/WESTERN UINTAS.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CROSSES NORTHERN
UT. AGAIN THE GREATEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION...WITH AMOUNTS
LARGELY REMAINING BELOW 0.10...WILL COME ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
I-80...AND SHOULD WIND DOWN BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH
THE LOW TO MID 70S SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS...WITH
ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES OF COOLING EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN UT
FROM SATURDAYS FORECAST HIGHS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK...AND WITH NO APPRECIABLE MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE BY TO
OUR EAST WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISTRICT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY AND WARM FLOW BUT SUBTLE DISTURBANCES RIDING
NORTHEAST IN THIS FLOW COULD SET OFF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF I-80 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE EC TRIES TO
BRING A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
HALF OF THE REGION THURSDAY BUT HAVE OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFS
AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH KEEPS THE FLOW A LITTLE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY RATHER THAN THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW THE EC FORECASTS
WHICH TAPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE. BOTTOM LINE HAVE GONE WITH ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS VERSES SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AT THE SLC TERMINAL THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING. THE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH AFTER ABOUT 20-21Z
THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS LESS THAN A
15 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN OCCURRING AT THE TERMINAL BUT GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT OVER WESTERN VALLEYS WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
OVER SOME AREAS DUE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS BELOW 15 PERCENT.
HOWEVER...FUELS REMAIN MOIST DUE TO RECENT RAINS SO POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE FIRES WILL ALSO REMAIN LOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE CORE OF THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON
SUNDAY RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUTH
WILL REMAIN DRY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK FOR NEXT WEEK WITH WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 301030
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
430 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. THE PARENT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRUSH NORTHERN UTAH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL RETURN
FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)...AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH NORTHERN UT THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS CROSSES NORTHERN UT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN UT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
UT...AND THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
MEANWHILE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.

AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN UT THIS
AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY BASED ON THE SREF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MINIMAL...AND LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80. THIS IS
ALSO WHERE MOST MODELS CONFINE ANY QPF THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUS
HAVE LARGELY RESTRICTED POPS TO THESE AREAS...WITH AN ADDITIONAL
CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WASATCH/WESTERN UINTAS.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CROSSES NORTHERN
UT. AGAIN THE GREATEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION...WITH AMOUNTS
LARGELY REMAINING BELOW 0.10...WILL COME ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
I-80...AND SHOULD WIND DOWN BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH
THE LOW TO MID 70S SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS...WITH
ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES OF COOLING EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN UT
FROM SATURDAYS FORECAST HIGHS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK...AND WITH NO APPRECIABLE MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE BY TO
OUR EAST WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISTRICT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY AND WARM FLOW BUT SUBTLE DISTURBANCES RIDING
NORTHEAST IN THIS FLOW COULD SET OFF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF I-80 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE EC TRIES TO
BRING A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
HALF OF THE REGION THURSDAY BUT HAVE OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFS
AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH KEEPS THE FLOW A LITTLE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY RATHER THAN THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW THE EC FORECASTS
WHICH TAPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE. BOTTOM LINE HAVE GONE WITH ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS VERSES SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AT THE SLC TERMINAL THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING. THE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH AFTER ABOUT 20-21Z
THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS LESS THAN A
15 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN OCCURRING AT THE TERMINAL BUT GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT OVER WESTERN VALLEYS WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
OVER SOME AREAS DUE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS BELOW 15 PERCENT.
HOWEVER...FUELS REMAIN MOIST DUE TO RECENT RAINS SO POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE FIRES WILL ALSO REMAIN LOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE CORE OF THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON
SUNDAY RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUTH
WILL REMAIN DRY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK FOR NEXT WEEK WITH WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 300256
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
856 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL UTAH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL
RETURN FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE HAS BUILT INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH A TROUGH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN BETWEEN...A SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ARE
APPROACHING NORTHERN UTAH FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AMDAR
400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A 50-85KT ANTICYCLONIC JET FROM
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. A SECOND CYCLONIC JET
OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN
CANADA. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.4" NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TO 0.8" WESTERN
VALLEYS.

INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS SATELLITE SHOWS COPIOUS MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO NORTHERN UTAH FROM NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER OVERNIGHT. INCREASED
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

DECIDED TO ADVERTISE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVERNIGHT NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ON THE 00Z KSLC RAOB...THOUGH
BOTH SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES AND RAP INDICATE INSTABILITY WANES LATE
THIS EVENING...THUS DID NOT MENTION THUNDER. STILL...APPROACHING
DYNAMICS OF AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET TO CONTEND WITH. THOUGH IT IS NOTEWORTHY THAT CURRENT HRRR-
3KM RUN DOES NOT SHOW ANY CONVECTION AFTER MID EVENING. ELECTED TO
INCLUDE MENTION OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS GIVEN INVERTED-V SOUNDING
WITH MAINLY THE MID LEVELS MOISTENING TONIGHT. EARLIER DEEPER
CONVECTION CERTAINLY DISPLAYED THIS THREAT WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40+
MPH AND EVEN 1 SEVERE REPORT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS
BEGUN TO SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE
HAS ALLOWED A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF UTAH...PRIMARILY OVER THE UINTAS. THE POSSIBILITY
OF CONVECTION OVER THE TERRAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE...SKIES HAVE
BEEN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST OVER THE LABOR
DAY WEEKEND...MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS IT
DOES SO. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST WYOMING. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRENDING A BIT
SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH THE FRONT NOT REALLY ENTERING
NORTHWEST UTAH UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. BECAUSE OF
THIS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS. TIGHTENING GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME BREEZY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN UTAH.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY
NIGHT...STALLING OVER CENTRAL UTAH SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN TROUGH
ALSO MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH
WILL BE THE BEST TIME FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...DUE TO
RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE THINK COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST.
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE COVERED THE THREAT WELL AND MADE LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CHANGES TO POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE NORTH DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH 700 MB TEMPS DROPPING FROM AROUND +12C TO AS LOW
AS +4C...RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 10F BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
COOLING WILL BE LESS SIGNIFICANT OVER CENTRAL UTAH...WITH ALMOST NO
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH AS CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND MILD.

ONE LAST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE TROUGH FULLY EXITS...BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW FOR LITTLE...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION. MODELS AGREE THAT A DRIER
AND MORE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE IN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE
FLATTENING A BIT BY THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVES
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...PERHAPS CURBING THE WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND AN
ENHANCED SOUTHERLY WIND OVERNIGHT AT THE SLC TERMINAL. WIND GUSTS
MAY INCREASE TO NEAR AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING LEVELS AROUND
SUNRISE. 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A GUSTY SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER....TWO WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST
RESPECTIVELY. SPOTTY WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THEY WILL TREND TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. A
NET DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COULD SEE SOME
AREAS IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS APPROACH OR EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS OF LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT
FUELS REMAIN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT WET FROM RECENT RAINS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT SPREADING ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BUT
POTENTIAL OF WETTING RAINS REMAINS LOW. COOLER AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE THE
SOUTH WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK
FURTHER DRYING ALL AREAS...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO BECOME GUSTY
ONCE AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL
AVIATION...ROGOWSKI

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 300256
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
856 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL UTAH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL
RETURN FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE HAS BUILT INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH A TROUGH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN BETWEEN...A SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ARE
APPROACHING NORTHERN UTAH FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AMDAR
400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A 50-85KT ANTICYCLONIC JET FROM
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. A SECOND CYCLONIC JET
OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN
CANADA. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.4" NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TO 0.8" WESTERN
VALLEYS.

INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS SATELLITE SHOWS COPIOUS MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO NORTHERN UTAH FROM NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER OVERNIGHT. INCREASED
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

DECIDED TO ADVERTISE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVERNIGHT NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ON THE 00Z KSLC RAOB...THOUGH
BOTH SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES AND RAP INDICATE INSTABILITY WANES LATE
THIS EVENING...THUS DID NOT MENTION THUNDER. STILL...APPROACHING
DYNAMICS OF AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET TO CONTEND WITH. THOUGH IT IS NOTEWORTHY THAT CURRENT HRRR-
3KM RUN DOES NOT SHOW ANY CONVECTION AFTER MID EVENING. ELECTED TO
INCLUDE MENTION OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS GIVEN INVERTED-V SOUNDING
WITH MAINLY THE MID LEVELS MOISTENING TONIGHT. EARLIER DEEPER
CONVECTION CERTAINLY DISPLAYED THIS THREAT WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40+
MPH AND EVEN 1 SEVERE REPORT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS
BEGUN TO SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE
HAS ALLOWED A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF UTAH...PRIMARILY OVER THE UINTAS. THE POSSIBILITY
OF CONVECTION OVER THE TERRAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE...SKIES HAVE
BEEN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST OVER THE LABOR
DAY WEEKEND...MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS IT
DOES SO. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST WYOMING. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRENDING A BIT
SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH THE FRONT NOT REALLY ENTERING
NORTHWEST UTAH UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. BECAUSE OF
THIS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS. TIGHTENING GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME BREEZY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN UTAH.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY
NIGHT...STALLING OVER CENTRAL UTAH SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN TROUGH
ALSO MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH
WILL BE THE BEST TIME FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...DUE TO
RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE THINK COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST.
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE COVERED THE THREAT WELL AND MADE LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CHANGES TO POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE NORTH DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH 700 MB TEMPS DROPPING FROM AROUND +12C TO AS LOW
AS +4C...RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 10F BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
COOLING WILL BE LESS SIGNIFICANT OVER CENTRAL UTAH...WITH ALMOST NO
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH AS CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND MILD.

ONE LAST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE TROUGH FULLY EXITS...BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW FOR LITTLE...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION. MODELS AGREE THAT A DRIER
AND MORE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE IN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE
FLATTENING A BIT BY THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVES
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...PERHAPS CURBING THE WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND AN
ENHANCED SOUTHERLY WIND OVERNIGHT AT THE SLC TERMINAL. WIND GUSTS
MAY INCREASE TO NEAR AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING LEVELS AROUND
SUNRISE. 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A GUSTY SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER....TWO WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST
RESPECTIVELY. SPOTTY WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THEY WILL TREND TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. A
NET DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COULD SEE SOME
AREAS IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS APPROACH OR EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS OF LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT
FUELS REMAIN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT WET FROM RECENT RAINS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT SPREADING ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BUT
POTENTIAL OF WETTING RAINS REMAINS LOW. COOLER AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE THE
SOUTH WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK
FURTHER DRYING ALL AREAS...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO BECOME GUSTY
ONCE AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL
AVIATION...ROGOWSKI

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 300256
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
856 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL UTAH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL
RETURN FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE HAS BUILT INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH A TROUGH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN BETWEEN...A SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ARE
APPROACHING NORTHERN UTAH FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AMDAR
400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A 50-85KT ANTICYCLONIC JET FROM
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. A SECOND CYCLONIC JET
OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN
CANADA. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.4" NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TO 0.8" WESTERN
VALLEYS.

INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS SATELLITE SHOWS COPIOUS MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO NORTHERN UTAH FROM NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER OVERNIGHT. INCREASED
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

DECIDED TO ADVERTISE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVERNIGHT NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ON THE 00Z KSLC RAOB...THOUGH
BOTH SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES AND RAP INDICATE INSTABILITY WANES LATE
THIS EVENING...THUS DID NOT MENTION THUNDER. STILL...APPROACHING
DYNAMICS OF AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET TO CONTEND WITH. THOUGH IT IS NOTEWORTHY THAT CURRENT HRRR-
3KM RUN DOES NOT SHOW ANY CONVECTION AFTER MID EVENING. ELECTED TO
INCLUDE MENTION OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS GIVEN INVERTED-V SOUNDING
WITH MAINLY THE MID LEVELS MOISTENING TONIGHT. EARLIER DEEPER
CONVECTION CERTAINLY DISPLAYED THIS THREAT WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40+
MPH AND EVEN 1 SEVERE REPORT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS
BEGUN TO SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE
HAS ALLOWED A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF UTAH...PRIMARILY OVER THE UINTAS. THE POSSIBILITY
OF CONVECTION OVER THE TERRAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE...SKIES HAVE
BEEN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST OVER THE LABOR
DAY WEEKEND...MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS IT
DOES SO. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST WYOMING. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRENDING A BIT
SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH THE FRONT NOT REALLY ENTERING
NORTHWEST UTAH UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. BECAUSE OF
THIS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS. TIGHTENING GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME BREEZY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN UTAH.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY
NIGHT...STALLING OVER CENTRAL UTAH SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN TROUGH
ALSO MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH
WILL BE THE BEST TIME FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...DUE TO
RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE THINK COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST.
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE COVERED THE THREAT WELL AND MADE LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CHANGES TO POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE NORTH DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH 700 MB TEMPS DROPPING FROM AROUND +12C TO AS LOW
AS +4C...RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 10F BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
COOLING WILL BE LESS SIGNIFICANT OVER CENTRAL UTAH...WITH ALMOST NO
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH AS CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND MILD.

ONE LAST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE TROUGH FULLY EXITS...BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW FOR LITTLE...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION. MODELS AGREE THAT A DRIER
AND MORE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE IN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE
FLATTENING A BIT BY THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVES
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...PERHAPS CURBING THE WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND AN
ENHANCED SOUTHERLY WIND OVERNIGHT AT THE SLC TERMINAL. WIND GUSTS
MAY INCREASE TO NEAR AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING LEVELS AROUND
SUNRISE. 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A GUSTY SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER....TWO WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST
RESPECTIVELY. SPOTTY WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THEY WILL TREND TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. A
NET DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COULD SEE SOME
AREAS IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS APPROACH OR EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS OF LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT
FUELS REMAIN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT WET FROM RECENT RAINS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT SPREADING ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BUT
POTENTIAL OF WETTING RAINS REMAINS LOW. COOLER AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE THE
SOUTH WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK
FURTHER DRYING ALL AREAS...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO BECOME GUSTY
ONCE AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL
AVIATION...ROGOWSKI

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 300256
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
856 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL UTAH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL
RETURN FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE HAS BUILT INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH A TROUGH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN BETWEEN...A SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ARE
APPROACHING NORTHERN UTAH FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AMDAR
400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A 50-85KT ANTICYCLONIC JET FROM
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. A SECOND CYCLONIC JET
OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN
CANADA. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.4" NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TO 0.8" WESTERN
VALLEYS.

INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS SATELLITE SHOWS COPIOUS MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO NORTHERN UTAH FROM NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER OVERNIGHT. INCREASED
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

DECIDED TO ADVERTISE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVERNIGHT NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ON THE 00Z KSLC RAOB...THOUGH
BOTH SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES AND RAP INDICATE INSTABILITY WANES LATE
THIS EVENING...THUS DID NOT MENTION THUNDER. STILL...APPROACHING
DYNAMICS OF AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET TO CONTEND WITH. THOUGH IT IS NOTEWORTHY THAT CURRENT HRRR-
3KM RUN DOES NOT SHOW ANY CONVECTION AFTER MID EVENING. ELECTED TO
INCLUDE MENTION OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS GIVEN INVERTED-V SOUNDING
WITH MAINLY THE MID LEVELS MOISTENING TONIGHT. EARLIER DEEPER
CONVECTION CERTAINLY DISPLAYED THIS THREAT WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40+
MPH AND EVEN 1 SEVERE REPORT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS
BEGUN TO SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE
HAS ALLOWED A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF UTAH...PRIMARILY OVER THE UINTAS. THE POSSIBILITY
OF CONVECTION OVER THE TERRAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE...SKIES HAVE
BEEN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST OVER THE LABOR
DAY WEEKEND...MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS IT
DOES SO. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST WYOMING. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRENDING A BIT
SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH THE FRONT NOT REALLY ENTERING
NORTHWEST UTAH UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. BECAUSE OF
THIS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS. TIGHTENING GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME BREEZY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN UTAH.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY
NIGHT...STALLING OVER CENTRAL UTAH SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN TROUGH
ALSO MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH
WILL BE THE BEST TIME FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...DUE TO
RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE THINK COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST.
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE COVERED THE THREAT WELL AND MADE LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CHANGES TO POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE NORTH DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH 700 MB TEMPS DROPPING FROM AROUND +12C TO AS LOW
AS +4C...RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 10F BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
COOLING WILL BE LESS SIGNIFICANT OVER CENTRAL UTAH...WITH ALMOST NO
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH AS CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND MILD.

ONE LAST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE TROUGH FULLY EXITS...BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW FOR LITTLE...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION. MODELS AGREE THAT A DRIER
AND MORE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE IN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE
FLATTENING A BIT BY THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVES
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...PERHAPS CURBING THE WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND AN
ENHANCED SOUTHERLY WIND OVERNIGHT AT THE SLC TERMINAL. WIND GUSTS
MAY INCREASE TO NEAR AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING LEVELS AROUND
SUNRISE. 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A GUSTY SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER....TWO WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST
RESPECTIVELY. SPOTTY WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THEY WILL TREND TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. A
NET DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COULD SEE SOME
AREAS IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS APPROACH OR EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS OF LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT
FUELS REMAIN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT WET FROM RECENT RAINS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT SPREADING ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BUT
POTENTIAL OF WETTING RAINS REMAINS LOW. COOLER AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE THE
SOUTH WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK
FURTHER DRYING ALL AREAS...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO BECOME GUSTY
ONCE AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL
AVIATION...ROGOWSKI

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 292222 AAA
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
422 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL UTAH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL
RETURN FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...UPDATED POPS/QPF/SKY BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS. ADDED MENTION OF CONVECTION TO SALT LAKE VALLEY...UTAH
COUNTY...SOUTHWEST WYOMING...UINTA BASIN AND CASTLE COUNTRY. NO
CHANGES BEYOND MIDNIGHT UNTIL GET A CHANCE TO DIG THROUGH THE DATA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEGUN TO
SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM
MOVES ONSHORE. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE HAS
ALLOWED A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF UTAH...PRIMARILY OVER THE UINTAS. THE POSSIBILITY OF
CONVECTION OVER THE TERRAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE...SKIES HAVE
BEEN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST OVER THE LABOR
DAY WEEKEND...MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
IT DOES SO. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
UTAH AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST WYOMING. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRENDING A
BIT SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH THE FRONT NOT REALLY ENTERING
NORTHWEST UTAH UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. BECAUSE OF
THIS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS. TIGHTENING GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME BREEZY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN UTAH.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY
NIGHT...STALLING OVER CENTRAL UTAH SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN TROUGH
ALSO MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHICH WILL BE THE BEST TIME FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...DUE TO RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE THINK COVERAGE WILL BE
SCATTERED AT BEST. MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE COVERED THE THREAT
WELL AND MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE NORTH DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH 700 MB TEMPS DROPPING FROM AROUND +12C TO AS LOW
AS +4C...RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 10F BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
COOLING WILL BE LESS SIGNIFICANT OVER CENTRAL UTAH...WITH ALMOST
NO CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH AS CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND MILD.

ONE LAST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE TROUGH FULLY EXITS...BUT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR LITTLE...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION. MODELS
AGREE THAT A DRIER AND MORE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE IN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING
THE RIDGE FLATTENING A BIT BY THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TROUGH MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...PERHAPS CURBING THE WARMING
TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL
AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BY 22Z WITH A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHIFTING AS LATE AS 23Z OR 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINTAINED. EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
TERMINAL THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON OUTFLOW FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER....TWO WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST
RESPECTIVELY. SPOTTY WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THEY WILL TREND TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. A
NET DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COULD SEE SOME
AREAS IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS APPROACH OR EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS OF LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT
FUELS REMAIN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT WET FROM RECENT RAINS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT SPREADING ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BUT
POTENTIAL OF WETTING RAINS REMAINS LOW. COOLER AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE THE
SOUTH WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK
FURTHER DRYING ALL AREAS...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO BECOME GUSTY
ONCE AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROGOWSKI
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL
AVIATION...YOUNG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 292144
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
344 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL UTAH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL
RETURN FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.



&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEGUN TO
SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM
MOVES ONSHORE. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE HAS
ALLOWED A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF UTAH...PRIMARILY OVER THE UINTAS. THE POSSIBILITY OF
CONVECTION OVER THE TERRAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE...SKIES HAVE
BEEN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST OVER THE LABOR
DAY WEEKEND...MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
IT DOES SO. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
UTAH AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST WYOMING. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRENDING A
BIT SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH THE FRONT NOT REALLY ENTERING
NORTHWEST UTAH UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. BECAUSE OF
THIS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS. TIGHTENING GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME BREEZY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN UTAH.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY
NIGHT...STALLING OVER CENTRAL UTAH SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN TROUGH
ALSO MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHICH WILL BE THE BEST TIME FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...DUE TO RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE THINK COVERAGE WILL BE
SCATTERED AT BEST. MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE COVERED THE THREAT
WELL AND MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE NORTH DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH 700 MB TEMPS DROPPING FROM AROUND +12C TO AS LOW
AS +4C...RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 10F BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
COOLING WILL BE LESS SIGNIFICANT OVER CENTRAL UTAH...WITH ALMOST
NO CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH AS CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND MILD.

ONE LAST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE TROUGH FULLY EXITS...BUT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR LITTLE...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION. MODELS
AGREE THAT A DRIER AND MORE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE IN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING
THE RIDGE FLATTENING A BIT BY THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TROUGH MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...PERHAPS CURBING THE WARMING
TREND.



&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL
AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BY 22Z WITH A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHIFTING AS LATE AS 23Z OR 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINTAINED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER....TWO WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST
RESPECTIVELY. SPOTTY WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THEY WILL TREND TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. A
NET DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COULD SEE SOME
AREAS IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS APPROACH OR EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS OF LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT
FUELS REMAIN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT WET FROM RECENT RAINS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT SPREADING ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BUT
POTENTIAL OF WETTING RAINS REMAINS LOW. COOLER AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE THE
SOUTH WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK
FURTHER DRYING ALL AREAS...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO BECOME GUSTY
ONCE AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL
AVIATION...YOUNG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 292144
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
344 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL UTAH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL
RETURN FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.



&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEGUN TO
SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM
MOVES ONSHORE. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE HAS
ALLOWED A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF UTAH...PRIMARILY OVER THE UINTAS. THE POSSIBILITY OF
CONVECTION OVER THE TERRAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE...SKIES HAVE
BEEN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST OVER THE LABOR
DAY WEEKEND...MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
IT DOES SO. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
UTAH AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST WYOMING. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRENDING A
BIT SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH THE FRONT NOT REALLY ENTERING
NORTHWEST UTAH UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. BECAUSE OF
THIS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS. TIGHTENING GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME BREEZY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN UTAH.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY
NIGHT...STALLING OVER CENTRAL UTAH SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN TROUGH
ALSO MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHICH WILL BE THE BEST TIME FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...DUE TO RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE THINK COVERAGE WILL BE
SCATTERED AT BEST. MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE COVERED THE THREAT
WELL AND MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE NORTH DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH 700 MB TEMPS DROPPING FROM AROUND +12C TO AS LOW
AS +4C...RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 10F BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
COOLING WILL BE LESS SIGNIFICANT OVER CENTRAL UTAH...WITH ALMOST
NO CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH AS CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND MILD.

ONE LAST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE TROUGH FULLY EXITS...BUT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR LITTLE...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION. MODELS
AGREE THAT A DRIER AND MORE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE IN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING
THE RIDGE FLATTENING A BIT BY THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TROUGH MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...PERHAPS CURBING THE WARMING
TREND.



&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL
AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BY 22Z WITH A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHIFTING AS LATE AS 23Z OR 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINTAINED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER....TWO WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST
RESPECTIVELY. SPOTTY WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THEY WILL TREND TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. A
NET DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COULD SEE SOME
AREAS IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS APPROACH OR EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS OF LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT
FUELS REMAIN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT WET FROM RECENT RAINS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT SPREADING ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BUT
POTENTIAL OF WETTING RAINS REMAINS LOW. COOLER AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE THE
SOUTH WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK
FURTHER DRYING ALL AREAS...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO BECOME GUSTY
ONCE AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL
AVIATION...YOUNG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 291623
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1023 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST LATE
TODAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOR MONDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
WARM...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES UP TO 5F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. A BIT OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OTHERWISE BENIGN.

THE PACIFIC TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IT DOES NOT HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...BUT SHOULD BRING A GOOD COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. 700 MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP FROM AROUND +12C TODAY TO AS COLD AS +3C SUNDAY MORNING
PER LATEST GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN MAXES UP TO 10F COOLER THAN
CLIMO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN UTAH. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF UTAH...SO LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THERE. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN MONDAY...CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL
AT THE KSLC TERMINAL TODAY. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-19Z...WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHIFTING AS LATE AS 20Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 291623
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1023 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST LATE
TODAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOR MONDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
WARM...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES UP TO 5F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. A BIT OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OTHERWISE BENIGN.

THE PACIFIC TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IT DOES NOT HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...BUT SHOULD BRING A GOOD COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. 700 MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP FROM AROUND +12C TODAY TO AS COLD AS +3C SUNDAY MORNING
PER LATEST GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN MAXES UP TO 10F COOLER THAN
CLIMO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN UTAH. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF UTAH...SO LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THERE. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN MONDAY...CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL
AT THE KSLC TERMINAL TODAY. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-19Z...WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHIFTING AS LATE AS 20Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 291044
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
444 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST LATE
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY...STALLING
ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z TUE)...THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS FLATTENED A LITTLE AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT CROSSED
THE NRN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT MOVES OFF INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE
TRAILING END OF THIS WEAK WAVE SET OFF A LITTLE CONVECTION OVER
NRN NV/SWRN ID OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT THIS AGAIN TODAY OVER THE NERN
MTNS.

THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT E LATE TODAY AND CONVECTION IS ALSO
POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NW AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN PAC TROF STARTS TO IMPACT THE NRN GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE
KEEPS A THREAT OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION GOING OVER THE NRN CWA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THRU EARLY SAT WITH A LULL SAT AFTN.

TEMPS TODAY SHOULD WARM AN ADDITIONAL 5 DEGREES OR SO FROM
YESTERDAY AS THE AIRMASS WARMS SOMEWHAT. WE OVERPERFORMED ON THE
HIGHS YESTERDAY SO EXPECT SLC TO REACH 90 TODAY AS ANY CLOUD COVER
LOOKS TO HOLD OFF TIL VERY LATE AFTN OR THIS EVE.

THE WAVE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT DOES INTRODUCE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
INTO THE NORTH BUT ALSO BRINGS GUSTY AFTN WINDS SO EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPS SAT FROM TODAY ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH DUE TO
BETTER MIXING.

THE MAIN PORTION OF THE PAC TROF CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES SAT NIGHT
SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT THRU NRN UT WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NRN UT THIS WEEKEND IN A BAND ALONG
THE FRONT. THESE COULD LINGER INTO EARLY SUN OVER THE NERN CWA BUT
THE WAVE IS PAST BY MIDDAY AND EXPECT MOST OF THE DAY TO BE SUNNY
AND DRY. TEMPS WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER OVER THE NORTH BUT THE
COOLER AIR BARELY REACHES THE SOUTH SO EXPECT ONLY SLIGHT COOLING
THERE.

DRY STABLE NWLY FLOW THEN DOMINATES THE CWA SUN AFTN INTO MON.
SUN NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL AND MON SHOULD BE SUNNY AND DRY
WITH SLIGHT WARMING.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL CAUSE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
OVER WESTERN VALLEYS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN FRIDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
NUDGING INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST UTAH. THE GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE AT
THIS POINT ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT GETS TAPPED AND BROUGHT
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THE EC TAPS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THEN THE
GFS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHICH SOLUTION TO FOLLOW BUT HAVE INCREASED
POPS A LITTLE OVER MAINLY EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ABOUT
20-21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY BUT WITH THAT
WARMTH A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY HIGH
BASED...WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER AND THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN DRY. ANOTHER TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. ALL
AREAS WILL SEE A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DIPPING BELOW 15 PERCENT WESTERN
AND SOUTHEAST VALLEYS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 291044
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
444 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST LATE
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY...STALLING
ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z TUE)...THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS FLATTENED A LITTLE AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT CROSSED
THE NRN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT MOVES OFF INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE
TRAILING END OF THIS WEAK WAVE SET OFF A LITTLE CONVECTION OVER
NRN NV/SWRN ID OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT THIS AGAIN TODAY OVER THE NERN
MTNS.

THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT E LATE TODAY AND CONVECTION IS ALSO
POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NW AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN PAC TROF STARTS TO IMPACT THE NRN GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE
KEEPS A THREAT OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION GOING OVER THE NRN CWA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THRU EARLY SAT WITH A LULL SAT AFTN.

TEMPS TODAY SHOULD WARM AN ADDITIONAL 5 DEGREES OR SO FROM
YESTERDAY AS THE AIRMASS WARMS SOMEWHAT. WE OVERPERFORMED ON THE
HIGHS YESTERDAY SO EXPECT SLC TO REACH 90 TODAY AS ANY CLOUD COVER
LOOKS TO HOLD OFF TIL VERY LATE AFTN OR THIS EVE.

THE WAVE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT DOES INTRODUCE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
INTO THE NORTH BUT ALSO BRINGS GUSTY AFTN WINDS SO EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPS SAT FROM TODAY ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH DUE TO
BETTER MIXING.

THE MAIN PORTION OF THE PAC TROF CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES SAT NIGHT
SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT THRU NRN UT WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NRN UT THIS WEEKEND IN A BAND ALONG
THE FRONT. THESE COULD LINGER INTO EARLY SUN OVER THE NERN CWA BUT
THE WAVE IS PAST BY MIDDAY AND EXPECT MOST OF THE DAY TO BE SUNNY
AND DRY. TEMPS WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER OVER THE NORTH BUT THE
COOLER AIR BARELY REACHES THE SOUTH SO EXPECT ONLY SLIGHT COOLING
THERE.

DRY STABLE NWLY FLOW THEN DOMINATES THE CWA SUN AFTN INTO MON.
SUN NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL AND MON SHOULD BE SUNNY AND DRY
WITH SLIGHT WARMING.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL CAUSE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
OVER WESTERN VALLEYS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN FRIDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
NUDGING INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST UTAH. THE GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE AT
THIS POINT ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT GETS TAPPED AND BROUGHT
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THE EC TAPS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THEN THE
GFS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHICH SOLUTION TO FOLLOW BUT HAVE INCREASED
POPS A LITTLE OVER MAINLY EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ABOUT
20-21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY BUT WITH THAT
WARMTH A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY HIGH
BASED...WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER AND THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN DRY. ANOTHER TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. ALL
AREAS WILL SEE A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DIPPING BELOW 15 PERCENT WESTERN
AND SOUTHEAST VALLEYS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 291044
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
444 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST LATE
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY...STALLING
ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z TUE)...THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS FLATTENED A LITTLE AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT CROSSED
THE NRN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT MOVES OFF INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE
TRAILING END OF THIS WEAK WAVE SET OFF A LITTLE CONVECTION OVER
NRN NV/SWRN ID OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT THIS AGAIN TODAY OVER THE NERN
MTNS.

THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT E LATE TODAY AND CONVECTION IS ALSO
POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NW AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN PAC TROF STARTS TO IMPACT THE NRN GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE
KEEPS A THREAT OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION GOING OVER THE NRN CWA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THRU EARLY SAT WITH A LULL SAT AFTN.

TEMPS TODAY SHOULD WARM AN ADDITIONAL 5 DEGREES OR SO FROM
YESTERDAY AS THE AIRMASS WARMS SOMEWHAT. WE OVERPERFORMED ON THE
HIGHS YESTERDAY SO EXPECT SLC TO REACH 90 TODAY AS ANY CLOUD COVER
LOOKS TO HOLD OFF TIL VERY LATE AFTN OR THIS EVE.

THE WAVE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT DOES INTRODUCE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
INTO THE NORTH BUT ALSO BRINGS GUSTY AFTN WINDS SO EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPS SAT FROM TODAY ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH DUE TO
BETTER MIXING.

THE MAIN PORTION OF THE PAC TROF CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES SAT NIGHT
SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT THRU NRN UT WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NRN UT THIS WEEKEND IN A BAND ALONG
THE FRONT. THESE COULD LINGER INTO EARLY SUN OVER THE NERN CWA BUT
THE WAVE IS PAST BY MIDDAY AND EXPECT MOST OF THE DAY TO BE SUNNY
AND DRY. TEMPS WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER OVER THE NORTH BUT THE
COOLER AIR BARELY REACHES THE SOUTH SO EXPECT ONLY SLIGHT COOLING
THERE.

DRY STABLE NWLY FLOW THEN DOMINATES THE CWA SUN AFTN INTO MON.
SUN NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL AND MON SHOULD BE SUNNY AND DRY
WITH SLIGHT WARMING.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL CAUSE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
OVER WESTERN VALLEYS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN FRIDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
NUDGING INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST UTAH. THE GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE AT
THIS POINT ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT GETS TAPPED AND BROUGHT
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THE EC TAPS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THEN THE
GFS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHICH SOLUTION TO FOLLOW BUT HAVE INCREASED
POPS A LITTLE OVER MAINLY EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ABOUT
20-21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY BUT WITH THAT
WARMTH A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY HIGH
BASED...WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER AND THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN DRY. ANOTHER TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. ALL
AREAS WILL SEE A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DIPPING BELOW 15 PERCENT WESTERN
AND SOUTHEAST VALLEYS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 291044
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
444 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST LATE
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY...STALLING
ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z TUE)...THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS FLATTENED A LITTLE AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT CROSSED
THE NRN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT MOVES OFF INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE
TRAILING END OF THIS WEAK WAVE SET OFF A LITTLE CONVECTION OVER
NRN NV/SWRN ID OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT THIS AGAIN TODAY OVER THE NERN
MTNS.

THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT E LATE TODAY AND CONVECTION IS ALSO
POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NW AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN PAC TROF STARTS TO IMPACT THE NRN GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE
KEEPS A THREAT OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION GOING OVER THE NRN CWA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THRU EARLY SAT WITH A LULL SAT AFTN.

TEMPS TODAY SHOULD WARM AN ADDITIONAL 5 DEGREES OR SO FROM
YESTERDAY AS THE AIRMASS WARMS SOMEWHAT. WE OVERPERFORMED ON THE
HIGHS YESTERDAY SO EXPECT SLC TO REACH 90 TODAY AS ANY CLOUD COVER
LOOKS TO HOLD OFF TIL VERY LATE AFTN OR THIS EVE.

THE WAVE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT DOES INTRODUCE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
INTO THE NORTH BUT ALSO BRINGS GUSTY AFTN WINDS SO EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPS SAT FROM TODAY ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH DUE TO
BETTER MIXING.

THE MAIN PORTION OF THE PAC TROF CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES SAT NIGHT
SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT THRU NRN UT WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NRN UT THIS WEEKEND IN A BAND ALONG
THE FRONT. THESE COULD LINGER INTO EARLY SUN OVER THE NERN CWA BUT
THE WAVE IS PAST BY MIDDAY AND EXPECT MOST OF THE DAY TO BE SUNNY
AND DRY. TEMPS WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER OVER THE NORTH BUT THE
COOLER AIR BARELY REACHES THE SOUTH SO EXPECT ONLY SLIGHT COOLING
THERE.

DRY STABLE NWLY FLOW THEN DOMINATES THE CWA SUN AFTN INTO MON.
SUN NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL AND MON SHOULD BE SUNNY AND DRY
WITH SLIGHT WARMING.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL CAUSE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
OVER WESTERN VALLEYS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN FRIDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
NUDGING INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST UTAH. THE GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE AT
THIS POINT ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT GETS TAPPED AND BROUGHT
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THE EC TAPS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THEN THE
GFS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHICH SOLUTION TO FOLLOW BUT HAVE INCREASED
POPS A LITTLE OVER MAINLY EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ABOUT
20-21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY BUT WITH THAT
WARMTH A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY HIGH
BASED...WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER AND THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN DRY. ANOTHER TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. ALL
AREAS WILL SEE A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DIPPING BELOW 15 PERCENT WESTERN
AND SOUTHEAST VALLEYS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 290134
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
734 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THEN
SHIFT EAST LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH
SATURDAY...STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS RISING HEIGHTS OVERHEAD AS
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS. A DISTURBANCE
IS MOVING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITHIN THE FLATTENING FLOW.
AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A 50-70KT WESTERLY JET
FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A STRONGER
50-90KT WESTERLY JET WAS LOCATED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES
BETWEEN 0.4" WEST CENTRAL UTAH TO AROUND 0.8" ACROSS THE EASTERN
VALLEYS.

WITH MIXING TODAY...24HR DEWPOINT CHANGE IS -5F TO -10F WHERE
POCKETS OF FOG DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. WHATS MORE TELLING IS THE
24HR DEWPOINT DEPRESSION CHANGE IS +20F TO +30F. ITS DRIED OUT
ENOUGH TO BE CONFIDENT OF GOOD VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING
TONIGHT. THE WASATCH BACK SHOULD ALSO BEHAVE THOUGH CURRENT
DEWPOINTS ARE CLOSER TO FORECAST LOWS. WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

A NICE QUIET EVENING FOR A CHANGE. DID LOWER CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF I-
80 AS MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS DIURNAL PER VISIBILE SATELLTE. A
LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER WILL RESIDE CLOSER TO THE
IDAHO BORDER AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE. MINIMAL
CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (THRU 00Z MON)...A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS HAS INVADED THE STATE IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING
TROUGH...RESULTING IN UBIQUITOUS CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AIR
INTO THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. A TROUGH BLAZING IN FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN THIS RIDGE AND SHIFT
MIDLEVEL WINDS BY FRIDAY MORNING TO WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE CLIPPING NORTHERN UTAH TOMORROW
WILL ENCOURAGE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE UTAH IDAHO
BORDER AND THE UINTAS...WITH LITTLE RESULTING PRECIPITATION.

TIMING IS STILL ON TRACK TO USHER A COLD FRONT INTO UTAH BEGINNING
SATURDAY AS THE INITIAL 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE BARRELS INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE STATE EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING THE AFTERNOON ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FIRST
PUSH...BUT OFFER HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF POPS COINCIDENT WITH A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE ENTERING UTAH SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE
NUDGES THE COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE...WANING BEFORE
DOUSING SOUTHERN UTAH TEMPS. EXPECTING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
TEMPS TO PLUMMET 6 TO 8 DEGREES FROM SATURDAY HIGHS...WITH JUST A 2
TO 3 DEGREE DROP IN SOUTHERN UTAH.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...ALLOWING A DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIRMASS TO MOVE BACK IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. ONE LAST GRAZING
TROUGH MAY INITIALLY LIMIT WARMING ON MONDAY...BUT MAXES ARE
EXPECTED TO APPROACH SEASONAL NORMS BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF SEQUENCE. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE A STORM
SYSTEM BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH ON
SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SOUTHERN UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS. BEHIND THE TROUGH A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL BUILD
OVER THE DISTRICT SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/VERZELLA
AVIATION...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 290134
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
734 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THEN
SHIFT EAST LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH
SATURDAY...STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS RISING HEIGHTS OVERHEAD AS
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS. A DISTURBANCE
IS MOVING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITHIN THE FLATTENING FLOW.
AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A 50-70KT WESTERLY JET
FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A STRONGER
50-90KT WESTERLY JET WAS LOCATED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES
BETWEEN 0.4" WEST CENTRAL UTAH TO AROUND 0.8" ACROSS THE EASTERN
VALLEYS.

WITH MIXING TODAY...24HR DEWPOINT CHANGE IS -5F TO -10F WHERE
POCKETS OF FOG DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. WHATS MORE TELLING IS THE
24HR DEWPOINT DEPRESSION CHANGE IS +20F TO +30F. ITS DRIED OUT
ENOUGH TO BE CONFIDENT OF GOOD VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING
TONIGHT. THE WASATCH BACK SHOULD ALSO BEHAVE THOUGH CURRENT
DEWPOINTS ARE CLOSER TO FORECAST LOWS. WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

A NICE QUIET EVENING FOR A CHANGE. DID LOWER CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF I-
80 AS MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS DIURNAL PER VISIBILE SATELLTE. A
LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER WILL RESIDE CLOSER TO THE
IDAHO BORDER AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE. MINIMAL
CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (THRU 00Z MON)...A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS HAS INVADED THE STATE IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING
TROUGH...RESULTING IN UBIQUITOUS CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AIR
INTO THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. A TROUGH BLAZING IN FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN THIS RIDGE AND SHIFT
MIDLEVEL WINDS BY FRIDAY MORNING TO WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE CLIPPING NORTHERN UTAH TOMORROW
WILL ENCOURAGE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE UTAH IDAHO
BORDER AND THE UINTAS...WITH LITTLE RESULTING PRECIPITATION.

TIMING IS STILL ON TRACK TO USHER A COLD FRONT INTO UTAH BEGINNING
SATURDAY AS THE INITIAL 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE BARRELS INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE STATE EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING THE AFTERNOON ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FIRST
PUSH...BUT OFFER HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF POPS COINCIDENT WITH A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE ENTERING UTAH SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE
NUDGES THE COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE...WANING BEFORE
DOUSING SOUTHERN UTAH TEMPS. EXPECTING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
TEMPS TO PLUMMET 6 TO 8 DEGREES FROM SATURDAY HIGHS...WITH JUST A 2
TO 3 DEGREE DROP IN SOUTHERN UTAH.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...ALLOWING A DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIRMASS TO MOVE BACK IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. ONE LAST GRAZING
TROUGH MAY INITIALLY LIMIT WARMING ON MONDAY...BUT MAXES ARE
EXPECTED TO APPROACH SEASONAL NORMS BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF SEQUENCE. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE A STORM
SYSTEM BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH ON
SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SOUTHERN UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS. BEHIND THE TROUGH A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL BUILD
OVER THE DISTRICT SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/VERZELLA
AVIATION...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 290134
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
734 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THEN
SHIFT EAST LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH
SATURDAY...STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS RISING HEIGHTS OVERHEAD AS
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS. A DISTURBANCE
IS MOVING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITHIN THE FLATTENING FLOW.
AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A 50-70KT WESTERLY JET
FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A STRONGER
50-90KT WESTERLY JET WAS LOCATED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES
BETWEEN 0.4" WEST CENTRAL UTAH TO AROUND 0.8" ACROSS THE EASTERN
VALLEYS.

WITH MIXING TODAY...24HR DEWPOINT CHANGE IS -5F TO -10F WHERE
POCKETS OF FOG DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. WHATS MORE TELLING IS THE
24HR DEWPOINT DEPRESSION CHANGE IS +20F TO +30F. ITS DRIED OUT
ENOUGH TO BE CONFIDENT OF GOOD VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING
TONIGHT. THE WASATCH BACK SHOULD ALSO BEHAVE THOUGH CURRENT
DEWPOINTS ARE CLOSER TO FORECAST LOWS. WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

A NICE QUIET EVENING FOR A CHANGE. DID LOWER CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF I-
80 AS MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS DIURNAL PER VISIBILE SATELLTE. A
LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER WILL RESIDE CLOSER TO THE
IDAHO BORDER AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE. MINIMAL
CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (THRU 00Z MON)...A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS HAS INVADED THE STATE IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING
TROUGH...RESULTING IN UBIQUITOUS CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AIR
INTO THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. A TROUGH BLAZING IN FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN THIS RIDGE AND SHIFT
MIDLEVEL WINDS BY FRIDAY MORNING TO WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE CLIPPING NORTHERN UTAH TOMORROW
WILL ENCOURAGE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE UTAH IDAHO
BORDER AND THE UINTAS...WITH LITTLE RESULTING PRECIPITATION.

TIMING IS STILL ON TRACK TO USHER A COLD FRONT INTO UTAH BEGINNING
SATURDAY AS THE INITIAL 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE BARRELS INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE STATE EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING THE AFTERNOON ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FIRST
PUSH...BUT OFFER HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF POPS COINCIDENT WITH A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE ENTERING UTAH SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE
NUDGES THE COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE...WANING BEFORE
DOUSING SOUTHERN UTAH TEMPS. EXPECTING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
TEMPS TO PLUMMET 6 TO 8 DEGREES FROM SATURDAY HIGHS...WITH JUST A 2
TO 3 DEGREE DROP IN SOUTHERN UTAH.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...ALLOWING A DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIRMASS TO MOVE BACK IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. ONE LAST GRAZING
TROUGH MAY INITIALLY LIMIT WARMING ON MONDAY...BUT MAXES ARE
EXPECTED TO APPROACH SEASONAL NORMS BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF SEQUENCE. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE A STORM
SYSTEM BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH ON
SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SOUTHERN UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS. BEHIND THE TROUGH A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL BUILD
OVER THE DISTRICT SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/VERZELLA
AVIATION...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 290134
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
734 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THEN
SHIFT EAST LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH
SATURDAY...STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS RISING HEIGHTS OVERHEAD AS
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS. A DISTURBANCE
IS MOVING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITHIN THE FLATTENING FLOW.
AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A 50-70KT WESTERLY JET
FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A STRONGER
50-90KT WESTERLY JET WAS LOCATED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES
BETWEEN 0.4" WEST CENTRAL UTAH TO AROUND 0.8" ACROSS THE EASTERN
VALLEYS.

WITH MIXING TODAY...24HR DEWPOINT CHANGE IS -5F TO -10F WHERE
POCKETS OF FOG DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. WHATS MORE TELLING IS THE
24HR DEWPOINT DEPRESSION CHANGE IS +20F TO +30F. ITS DRIED OUT
ENOUGH TO BE CONFIDENT OF GOOD VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING
TONIGHT. THE WASATCH BACK SHOULD ALSO BEHAVE THOUGH CURRENT
DEWPOINTS ARE CLOSER TO FORECAST LOWS. WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

A NICE QUIET EVENING FOR A CHANGE. DID LOWER CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF I-
80 AS MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS DIURNAL PER VISIBILE SATELLTE. A
LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER WILL RESIDE CLOSER TO THE
IDAHO BORDER AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE. MINIMAL
CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (THRU 00Z MON)...A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS HAS INVADED THE STATE IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING
TROUGH...RESULTING IN UBIQUITOUS CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AIR
INTO THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. A TROUGH BLAZING IN FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN THIS RIDGE AND SHIFT
MIDLEVEL WINDS BY FRIDAY MORNING TO WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE CLIPPING NORTHERN UTAH TOMORROW
WILL ENCOURAGE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE UTAH IDAHO
BORDER AND THE UINTAS...WITH LITTLE RESULTING PRECIPITATION.

TIMING IS STILL ON TRACK TO USHER A COLD FRONT INTO UTAH BEGINNING
SATURDAY AS THE INITIAL 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE BARRELS INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE STATE EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING THE AFTERNOON ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FIRST
PUSH...BUT OFFER HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF POPS COINCIDENT WITH A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE ENTERING UTAH SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE
NUDGES THE COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE...WANING BEFORE
DOUSING SOUTHERN UTAH TEMPS. EXPECTING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
TEMPS TO PLUMMET 6 TO 8 DEGREES FROM SATURDAY HIGHS...WITH JUST A 2
TO 3 DEGREE DROP IN SOUTHERN UTAH.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...ALLOWING A DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIRMASS TO MOVE BACK IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. ONE LAST GRAZING
TROUGH MAY INITIALLY LIMIT WARMING ON MONDAY...BUT MAXES ARE
EXPECTED TO APPROACH SEASONAL NORMS BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF SEQUENCE. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE A STORM
SYSTEM BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH ON
SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SOUTHERN UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS. BEHIND THE TROUGH A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL BUILD
OVER THE DISTRICT SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/VERZELLA
AVIATION...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 282119
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
319 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
TODAY THEN SHIFT EAST LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY...STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH ON SUNDAY.



&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (THRU 00Z MON)...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIRMASS HAS INVADED THE STATE IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING
TROUGH...RESULTING IN UBIQUITOUS CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AIR
INTO THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. A TROUGH BLAZING IN FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN THIS RIDGE AND SHIFT
MIDLEVEL WINDS BY FRIDAY MORNING TO WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE CLIPPING NORTHERN UTAH TOMORROW
WILL ENCOURAGE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE UTAH IDAHO
BORDER AND THE UINTAS...WITH LITTLE RESULTING PRECIPITATION.

TIMING IS STILL ON TRACK TO USHER A COLD FRONT INTO UTAH BEGINNING
SATURDAY AS THE INITIAL 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE BARRELS INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE STATE EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING THE AFTERNOON ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FIRST PUSH...BUT OFFER HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF POPS COINCIDENT WITH A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE ENTERING UTAH SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE
NUDGES THE COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE...WANING BEFORE
DOUSING SOUTHERN UTAH TEMPS. EXPECTING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
TEMPS TO PLUMMET 6 TO 8 DEGREES FROM SATURDAY HIGHS...WITH JUST A
2 TO 3 DEGREE DROP IN SOUTHERN UTAH.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...ALLOWING A DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIRMASS TO MOVE BACK IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. ONE LAST GRAZING
TROUGH MAY INITIALLY LIMIT WARMING ON MONDAY...BUT MAXES ARE
EXPECTED TO APPROACH SEASONAL NORMS BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF SEQUENCE. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE A STORM
SYSTEM BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH ON
SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SOUTHERN UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS. BEHIND THE TROUGH A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL BUILD
OVER THE DISTRICT SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...VERZELLA
FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...YOUNG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 281613
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1013 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THEN
SHIFT EAST LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH
SATURDAY THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH ON SUNDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AN EXITING TROUGH IS DELIVERING A CONFIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE STATE TODAY ALONG WITH A DRIER...WARMER AND
MORE STABLE AIRMASS. A FEW CLOUDS REMAINED IN NORTHEASTERN
UTAH THIS MORNING AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED IN AREAS OF THE HEBER
VALLEY AND UINTA BASIN. UPDATED THE MORNING WEATHER GRID TO
REFLECT FOG IN THE LATTER AREA. SKIES ACROSS THE STATE SHOULD BE
CLEAR TODAY EXCEPT FOR SOME MODEST CUMULUS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVER THE STATE
BY THIS EVENING...USHERING IN MORE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND
FURTHER ADVECTING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION. A TROUGH NUDGES INTO
NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY...WITH THE NAM SHOWING AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE BOUNDARY OOZING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME CONVECTIVE FORCING...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE ENTERING UTAH SATURDAY EVENING ENHANCES THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN LOCALES. THIS WAVE
FURTHER TRAJECTS THE COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
STATE...WANING BEFORE AFFECTING SOUTHERN UTAH TEMPS. DRY AIR
RETURNS TO THE STATE ON SUNDAY...INITIATING A GRADUAL RETURN TO
SEASONAL BY TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...VERZELLA
AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 281613
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1013 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THEN
SHIFT EAST LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH
SATURDAY THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH ON SUNDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AN EXITING TROUGH IS DELIVERING A CONFIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE STATE TODAY ALONG WITH A DRIER...WARMER AND
MORE STABLE AIRMASS. A FEW CLOUDS REMAINED IN NORTHEASTERN
UTAH THIS MORNING AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED IN AREAS OF THE HEBER
VALLEY AND UINTA BASIN. UPDATED THE MORNING WEATHER GRID TO
REFLECT FOG IN THE LATTER AREA. SKIES ACROSS THE STATE SHOULD BE
CLEAR TODAY EXCEPT FOR SOME MODEST CUMULUS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVER THE STATE
BY THIS EVENING...USHERING IN MORE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND
FURTHER ADVECTING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION. A TROUGH NUDGES INTO
NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY...WITH THE NAM SHOWING AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE BOUNDARY OOZING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME CONVECTIVE FORCING...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE ENTERING UTAH SATURDAY EVENING ENHANCES THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN LOCALES. THIS WAVE
FURTHER TRAJECTS THE COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
STATE...WANING BEFORE AFFECTING SOUTHERN UTAH TEMPS. DRY AIR
RETURNS TO THE STATE ON SUNDAY...INITIATING A GRADUAL RETURN TO
SEASONAL BY TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...VERZELLA
AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 281613
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1013 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THEN
SHIFT EAST LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH
SATURDAY THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH ON SUNDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AN EXITING TROUGH IS DELIVERING A CONFIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE STATE TODAY ALONG WITH A DRIER...WARMER AND
MORE STABLE AIRMASS. A FEW CLOUDS REMAINED IN NORTHEASTERN
UTAH THIS MORNING AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED IN AREAS OF THE HEBER
VALLEY AND UINTA BASIN. UPDATED THE MORNING WEATHER GRID TO
REFLECT FOG IN THE LATTER AREA. SKIES ACROSS THE STATE SHOULD BE
CLEAR TODAY EXCEPT FOR SOME MODEST CUMULUS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVER THE STATE
BY THIS EVENING...USHERING IN MORE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND
FURTHER ADVECTING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION. A TROUGH NUDGES INTO
NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY...WITH THE NAM SHOWING AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE BOUNDARY OOZING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME CONVECTIVE FORCING...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE ENTERING UTAH SATURDAY EVENING ENHANCES THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN LOCALES. THIS WAVE
FURTHER TRAJECTS THE COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
STATE...WANING BEFORE AFFECTING SOUTHERN UTAH TEMPS. DRY AIR
RETURNS TO THE STATE ON SUNDAY...INITIATING A GRADUAL RETURN TO
SEASONAL BY TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...VERZELLA
AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 281613
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1013 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THEN
SHIFT EAST LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH
SATURDAY THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH ON SUNDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AN EXITING TROUGH IS DELIVERING A CONFIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE STATE TODAY ALONG WITH A DRIER...WARMER AND
MORE STABLE AIRMASS. A FEW CLOUDS REMAINED IN NORTHEASTERN
UTAH THIS MORNING AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED IN AREAS OF THE HEBER
VALLEY AND UINTA BASIN. UPDATED THE MORNING WEATHER GRID TO
REFLECT FOG IN THE LATTER AREA. SKIES ACROSS THE STATE SHOULD BE
CLEAR TODAY EXCEPT FOR SOME MODEST CUMULUS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVER THE STATE
BY THIS EVENING...USHERING IN MORE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND
FURTHER ADVECTING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION. A TROUGH NUDGES INTO
NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY...WITH THE NAM SHOWING AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE BOUNDARY OOZING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME CONVECTIVE FORCING...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE ENTERING UTAH SATURDAY EVENING ENHANCES THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN LOCALES. THIS WAVE
FURTHER TRAJECTS THE COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
STATE...WANING BEFORE AFFECTING SOUTHERN UTAH TEMPS. DRY AIR
RETURNS TO THE STATE ON SUNDAY...INITIATING A GRADUAL RETURN TO
SEASONAL BY TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...VERZELLA
AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




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