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000
FXUS65 KSLC 272230
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
330 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)...A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO
SPILL OVERTOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING AFTERNOON HEATING TODAY DESPITE A
MILD START. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS RESULTING IN A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT.

THE MODELS FORECAST THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO THIN OUT
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND THIS COUPLED WITH A VERY
MILD AIRMASS IN PLACE AND WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW
DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY TO SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A FEW
RECORDS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN 700MB TEMPS NEAR 4C ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL PUSH A SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT INTO NORTHERN
UTAH FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. THE GFS REMAIN WEAKER
AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS BOUNDARY...WHILE THE EC CONTINUES TO
DRIVE A SOMEWHAT STRONGER FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN UT...AND STALLS
THE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE
LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARD THE GFS...AND KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS NORTH
OF I-80 SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH ONLY A SMALL THREAT
FURTHER SOUTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE THE VALLEY
FLOORS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z MONDAY)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM
IS QUITE LOW GIVEN MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES IN
GLOBALS. HEIGHTS SHOULD BUILD SLIGHTLY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...HOWEVER ECMWF
DOES HAVE A WEAK NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE CARVE A LITTLE DEEPER
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT MAY LIMIT SUCH A RESPONSE UNTIL
TUESDAY. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS
SUCH.

INCONSISTENCIES BECOME MORE APPARENT THEREAFTER REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH AND ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION...OR LACK THEREOF. GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT RUN
TO RUN BUT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SLOW PROGRESSION A TAD EACH RUN
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL. AN OPEN WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN REMAINS. ECMWF SHIFTED AWAY FROM EASTWARD PROGRESSION
COMPLETELY IN THE 00Z RUN AND CONTINUES THAT TREND IN THE LATEST 12Z
OPERATIONAL OUTPUT...OPENING THE FORMER CLOSED LOW AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA DUE TO MORE AMPLIFIED INTERMOUNTAIN RIDGING.
SOME MEMBERS OF THE GEFS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. OPTED TO SLOW AND
REDUCE INTRODUCTION OF POPS TUESDAY...AND REDUCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THESE INCONSISTENCIES AND SOME SUPPORT OF A
DRIER SOLUTION IN THE GEFS MEMBERS. AGAIN...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL
AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...THOUGH A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OR VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
00Z THIS EVENING. IF ANY NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS DO OCCUR THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 6 KNOTS.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 272230
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
330 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)...A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO
SPILL OVERTOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING AFTERNOON HEATING TODAY DESPITE A
MILD START. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS RESULTING IN A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT.

THE MODELS FORECAST THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO THIN OUT
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND THIS COUPLED WITH A VERY
MILD AIRMASS IN PLACE AND WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW
DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY TO SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A FEW
RECORDS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN 700MB TEMPS NEAR 4C ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL PUSH A SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT INTO NORTHERN
UTAH FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. THE GFS REMAIN WEAKER
AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS BOUNDARY...WHILE THE EC CONTINUES TO
DRIVE A SOMEWHAT STRONGER FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN UT...AND STALLS
THE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE
LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARD THE GFS...AND KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS NORTH
OF I-80 SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH ONLY A SMALL THREAT
FURTHER SOUTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE THE VALLEY
FLOORS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z MONDAY)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM
IS QUITE LOW GIVEN MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES IN
GLOBALS. HEIGHTS SHOULD BUILD SLIGHTLY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...HOWEVER ECMWF
DOES HAVE A WEAK NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE CARVE A LITTLE DEEPER
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT MAY LIMIT SUCH A RESPONSE UNTIL
TUESDAY. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS
SUCH.

INCONSISTENCIES BECOME MORE APPARENT THEREAFTER REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH AND ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION...OR LACK THEREOF. GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT RUN
TO RUN BUT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SLOW PROGRESSION A TAD EACH RUN
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL. AN OPEN WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN REMAINS. ECMWF SHIFTED AWAY FROM EASTWARD PROGRESSION
COMPLETELY IN THE 00Z RUN AND CONTINUES THAT TREND IN THE LATEST 12Z
OPERATIONAL OUTPUT...OPENING THE FORMER CLOSED LOW AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA DUE TO MORE AMPLIFIED INTERMOUNTAIN RIDGING.
SOME MEMBERS OF THE GEFS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. OPTED TO SLOW AND
REDUCE INTRODUCTION OF POPS TUESDAY...AND REDUCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THESE INCONSISTENCIES AND SOME SUPPORT OF A
DRIER SOLUTION IN THE GEFS MEMBERS. AGAIN...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL
AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...THOUGH A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OR VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
00Z THIS EVENING. IF ANY NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS DO OCCUR THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 6 KNOTS.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 271658
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
958 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE
GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING...MAINTAINING A VERY
MILD AIRMASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SPILLING
OVERTOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UT. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT WARMING JUST A BIT
TODAY...HOWEVER STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
TO RUN CLOSE TO WEDNESDAYS OBSERVED HIGHS...WITH A BIT OF WARMING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN AN INCREASE IN 700MB TEMPS. IF
BREAKS IN THE CIRRUS DEVELOP COULD SEE A SPIKE IN VALLEY TEMPS AS
WELL.

THE 12Z GFS MAINTAINS STRONG RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH ITS
PREDECESSORS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN ITS HANDLING OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND...AS WELL AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A WEAKER SURFACE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH PRECIP LIKELY REMAINING CONFINED
LARGELY TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80...FOLLOWED BY A MILD SOUTHERLY
FLOW MONDAY...AND A MOIST TROUGH WITH A SUBTROPICAL TAP FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF BACKED WAY OFF ON THIS LATTER
SYSTEM WHILE OFFERING UP A MUCH STRONGER AND COLDER FRONT FOR
SUNDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST UNTIL
THE 12Z EC ARRIVES...HOWEVER THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE
GFS BOLSTERS CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL
AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...THOUGH A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OR VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 19Z-
00Z WINDOW. IF ANY NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS DO OCCUR THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 6 KNOTS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 271658
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
958 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE
GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING...MAINTAINING A VERY
MILD AIRMASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SPILLING
OVERTOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UT. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT WARMING JUST A BIT
TODAY...HOWEVER STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
TO RUN CLOSE TO WEDNESDAYS OBSERVED HIGHS...WITH A BIT OF WARMING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN AN INCREASE IN 700MB TEMPS. IF
BREAKS IN THE CIRRUS DEVELOP COULD SEE A SPIKE IN VALLEY TEMPS AS
WELL.

THE 12Z GFS MAINTAINS STRONG RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH ITS
PREDECESSORS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN ITS HANDLING OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND...AS WELL AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A WEAKER SURFACE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH PRECIP LIKELY REMAINING CONFINED
LARGELY TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80...FOLLOWED BY A MILD SOUTHERLY
FLOW MONDAY...AND A MOIST TROUGH WITH A SUBTROPICAL TAP FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF BACKED WAY OFF ON THIS LATTER
SYSTEM WHILE OFFERING UP A MUCH STRONGER AND COLDER FRONT FOR
SUNDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST UNTIL
THE 12Z EC ARRIVES...HOWEVER THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE
GFS BOLSTERS CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL
AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...THOUGH A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OR VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 19Z-
00Z WINDOW. IF ANY NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS DO OCCUR THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 6 KNOTS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 271202
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
502 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z MON)...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED
NEAR THE UT/NV BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. CIRRUS STREAMING
THROUGH THE RIDGE IS INCREASING ACROSS NRN UT AND WILL OVERSPREAD
THE CWA AS THE DAY GOES ON.

THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH HAS KEPT ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY
SURFACE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA TO KEEP THE NWRN AND W CENTRAL
VALLEYS FAIRLY WELL MIXED WITH CURRENT TEMPS STILL IN THE 40S IN
MANY AREAS. THE AIRMASS UNDER THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WARM
SEVERAL DEGREES C FROM YESTERDAY AND MANY AREAS WILL STAY
SUFFICIENTLY WELL MIXED FOR THIS TO BE REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE.
THE ONLY POSSIBLE HINDRANCE WOULD BE IF HIGH CLOUDS GET THICK
ENOUGH TO BLOCK THE SUN AND I DO EXPECT THIS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
NORTH. SO HAVE KEPT TEMPS TODAY NEAR YESTERDAYS READINGS BUT HAVE
WARMED THE SOUTH SOMEWHAT.

EXPECT THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E AND SWLY FLOW INCREASES A BIT OVER THE CWA
KEEPING INVERSIONS AT BAY.

MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE COLD AIR INTRUSION INTO THE
PACNW AND NRN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND MOSTLY DUE TO HOW THEY HANDLE A
CLOSED LOW IN THE ERN PAC. THE EC KEEPS THIS FEATURE FARTHER WEST
AND DIGS THE COLD AIR DOWN THE COAST INITIALLY ON SAT WHILE THE
GFS HAS THE LOW A LITTLE CLOSER SENDING THE COLD AIR S INLAND THRU
THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS SENDS A COLD FRONT THRU NRN UT ON SAT WHILE
THE EC HOLDS IT TO OUR WEST. THE EC EVENTUALLY SENDS THE COLD AIR
INTO UT BUT NOT TIL SUN WHILE THE GFS IS ALREADY PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY BACK N AS A WARM FRONT.

THIS RUN OF THE EC IS AN OUTLIER WITH THE GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN
SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER. HOWEVER THE EC HAS A GOOD TRACK RECORD FOR
CATCHING CHANGES EARLY SO AM NOT WILLING TO COMPLETELY DISCOUNT
IT. SO HAVE NUDGED THE FORECAST SOMEWHAT TOWARDS THAT SOLUTION BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE
ON THE EXTENT OF COLD AIR INTRUSION INTO UTAH BY SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH ECMWF 700 MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES C
COLDER THAN THE GFS AT THIS TIME. THIS SAID...BOTH MODELS RENDER
CONTINUED PRECIPITATION INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE EC SPREADING IT
FURTHER INTO CENTRAL UTAH. HAVE THUS NUDGED GRIDS SLIGHTLY TOWARD
THE EC SOLUTION IN BOTH TEMPERATURE AND EXTENT OF POPS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. CONTINUING THE IDEA OF A VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW
EVENT WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING A NOTCH TO 6 KFT.

FURTHER MODEL DISAGREEMENT EXTENDS INTO MIDWEEK REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF A PACIFIC TROUGH...WITH THE GFS PITCHING AN EJECTED
SHORTWAVE INTO UTAH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE EC IS BEREFT OF SAID
WAVE...SOLELY SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CUTOFF LOW STALLING
WEST OF 130W...LEAVING THE STATE HIGH AND DRY. HAVE THUS PRIMARILY
REDUCED MIDWEEK POPS FROM LIKELY TO CHANCE CATEGORIES...KEEPING
TREND OF VALLEY RAIN/MTN SNOW THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BETWEEN
19-22Z...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING A NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 270447
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
947 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A COOLING TREND
TO NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY WHILE THE SOUTH REMAINS MILD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN
THIS EVENING...MAINTAINING A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WARMED WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...AS 00Z SOUNDING AT
KSLC SHOWED A WELL MIXED AIRMASS UP TO 750MB. TEMPERATURES AT 700MB
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB TOMORROW...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...WEAKER MIXING TOMORROW WILL
COUNTERACT THE WARMING TREND IN SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCALES.
NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT AN UNSEASONABLY WARM THANKSGIVING TOMORROW AND
INTO FRIDAY.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. UPDATED TO ADJUST
AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE CLOUDS...AND MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS AND
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

CHENG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 270447
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
947 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A COOLING TREND
TO NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY WHILE THE SOUTH REMAINS MILD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN
THIS EVENING...MAINTAINING A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WARMED WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...AS 00Z SOUNDING AT
KSLC SHOWED A WELL MIXED AIRMASS UP TO 750MB. TEMPERATURES AT 700MB
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB TOMORROW...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...WEAKER MIXING TOMORROW WILL
COUNTERACT THE WARMING TREND IN SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCALES.
NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT AN UNSEASONABLY WARM THANKSGIVING TOMORROW AND
INTO FRIDAY.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. UPDATED TO ADJUST
AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE CLOUDS...AND MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS AND
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

CHENG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 270447
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
947 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A COOLING TREND
TO NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY WHILE THE SOUTH REMAINS MILD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN
THIS EVENING...MAINTAINING A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WARMED WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...AS 00Z SOUNDING AT
KSLC SHOWED A WELL MIXED AIRMASS UP TO 750MB. TEMPERATURES AT 700MB
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB TOMORROW...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...WEAKER MIXING TOMORROW WILL
COUNTERACT THE WARMING TREND IN SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCALES.
NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT AN UNSEASONABLY WARM THANKSGIVING TOMORROW AND
INTO FRIDAY.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. UPDATED TO ADJUST
AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE CLOUDS...AND MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS AND
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

CHENG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 270447
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
947 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A COOLING TREND
TO NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY WHILE THE SOUTH REMAINS MILD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN
THIS EVENING...MAINTAINING A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WARMED WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...AS 00Z SOUNDING AT
KSLC SHOWED A WELL MIXED AIRMASS UP TO 750MB. TEMPERATURES AT 700MB
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB TOMORROW...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...WEAKER MIXING TOMORROW WILL
COUNTERACT THE WARMING TREND IN SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCALES.
NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT AN UNSEASONABLY WARM THANKSGIVING TOMORROW AND
INTO FRIDAY.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. UPDATED TO ADJUST
AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE CLOUDS...AND MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS AND
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

CHENG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 262139
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
239 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A COOLING TREND
TO NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY WHILE THE SOUTH REMAINS MILD.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS BLOWING
OFF PORTIONS OF THE WASATCH...MOST OF THE CWA IS SUNNY AND QUITE
WARM FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THE SALT LAKE CITY AIRPORT MANAGED TO REACH
THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES WILL
ABOVE NORMAL FROM ROUGHLY SALT LAKE COUNTY NORTHWARD. THIS SHOULD
KEEP LOWS A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST IN THESE AREAS.
BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN RESPONSE.

EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW...WITH SEVERAL MODELS INDICATING
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT MAY MATCH TODAYS HIGHS. GIVEN A
SLIGHTLY COOLER START...KEPT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN
TODAYS EXPECTED HIGHS. REGARDLESS...THANKSGIVING WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE AND LARGELY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE
CWA. ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED
ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG
PACIFIC SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL PUSH A
WEAK BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH...WITH  SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SUNDAY)...THE SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH A SHALLOW BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN
UT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF I-80 EARLY
SUNDAY BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. HAVE
INCREASED POPS 10-20 PERCENT ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80 DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY TIMEFRAME.

WITH THIS WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY...A VERY
MILD AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE 12Z MODEL SUITE HAS SLOWED DOWN ON THE TIMING OF A MOIST
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS NOW EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...OR POSSIBLY
EVEN SLOWER IF THE 12Z ECMWF IS TO BE BELIEVED. AS SUCH HAVE
LARGELY REMOVED POPS FROM THE MONDAY TIMEFRAME...AND FOCUSED THE
HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALSO TRENDED MORE
TOWARD A VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW EVENT WITH SNOW LEVELS
REMAINING AROUND 7 KFT.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH 02-03Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO 7 KTS OR SO THROUGH ABOUT
02Z.


&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

KRUSE/SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 262139
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
239 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A COOLING TREND
TO NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY WHILE THE SOUTH REMAINS MILD.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS BLOWING
OFF PORTIONS OF THE WASATCH...MOST OF THE CWA IS SUNNY AND QUITE
WARM FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THE SALT LAKE CITY AIRPORT MANAGED TO REACH
THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES WILL
ABOVE NORMAL FROM ROUGHLY SALT LAKE COUNTY NORTHWARD. THIS SHOULD
KEEP LOWS A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST IN THESE AREAS.
BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN RESPONSE.

EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW...WITH SEVERAL MODELS INDICATING
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT MAY MATCH TODAYS HIGHS. GIVEN A
SLIGHTLY COOLER START...KEPT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN
TODAYS EXPECTED HIGHS. REGARDLESS...THANKSGIVING WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE AND LARGELY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE
CWA. ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED
ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG
PACIFIC SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL PUSH A
WEAK BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH...WITH  SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SUNDAY)...THE SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH A SHALLOW BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN
UT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF I-80 EARLY
SUNDAY BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. HAVE
INCREASED POPS 10-20 PERCENT ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80 DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY TIMEFRAME.

WITH THIS WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY...A VERY
MILD AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE 12Z MODEL SUITE HAS SLOWED DOWN ON THE TIMING OF A MOIST
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS NOW EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...OR POSSIBLY
EVEN SLOWER IF THE 12Z ECMWF IS TO BE BELIEVED. AS SUCH HAVE
LARGELY REMOVED POPS FROM THE MONDAY TIMEFRAME...AND FOCUSED THE
HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALSO TRENDED MORE
TOWARD A VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW EVENT WITH SNOW LEVELS
REMAINING AROUND 7 KFT.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH 02-03Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO 7 KTS OR SO THROUGH ABOUT
02Z.


&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

KRUSE/SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 262139
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
239 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A COOLING TREND
TO NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY WHILE THE SOUTH REMAINS MILD.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS BLOWING
OFF PORTIONS OF THE WASATCH...MOST OF THE CWA IS SUNNY AND QUITE
WARM FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THE SALT LAKE CITY AIRPORT MANAGED TO REACH
THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES WILL
ABOVE NORMAL FROM ROUGHLY SALT LAKE COUNTY NORTHWARD. THIS SHOULD
KEEP LOWS A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST IN THESE AREAS.
BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN RESPONSE.

EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW...WITH SEVERAL MODELS INDICATING
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT MAY MATCH TODAYS HIGHS. GIVEN A
SLIGHTLY COOLER START...KEPT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN
TODAYS EXPECTED HIGHS. REGARDLESS...THANKSGIVING WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE AND LARGELY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE
CWA. ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED
ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG
PACIFIC SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL PUSH A
WEAK BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH...WITH  SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SUNDAY)...THE SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH A SHALLOW BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN
UT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF I-80 EARLY
SUNDAY BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. HAVE
INCREASED POPS 10-20 PERCENT ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80 DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY TIMEFRAME.

WITH THIS WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY...A VERY
MILD AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE 12Z MODEL SUITE HAS SLOWED DOWN ON THE TIMING OF A MOIST
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS NOW EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...OR POSSIBLY
EVEN SLOWER IF THE 12Z ECMWF IS TO BE BELIEVED. AS SUCH HAVE
LARGELY REMOVED POPS FROM THE MONDAY TIMEFRAME...AND FOCUSED THE
HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALSO TRENDED MORE
TOWARD A VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW EVENT WITH SNOW LEVELS
REMAINING AROUND 7 KFT.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH 02-03Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO 7 KTS OR SO THROUGH ABOUT
02Z.


&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

KRUSE/SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 262139
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
239 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A COOLING TREND
TO NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY WHILE THE SOUTH REMAINS MILD.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS BLOWING
OFF PORTIONS OF THE WASATCH...MOST OF THE CWA IS SUNNY AND QUITE
WARM FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THE SALT LAKE CITY AIRPORT MANAGED TO REACH
THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES WILL
ABOVE NORMAL FROM ROUGHLY SALT LAKE COUNTY NORTHWARD. THIS SHOULD
KEEP LOWS A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST IN THESE AREAS.
BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN RESPONSE.

EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW...WITH SEVERAL MODELS INDICATING
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT MAY MATCH TODAYS HIGHS. GIVEN A
SLIGHTLY COOLER START...KEPT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN
TODAYS EXPECTED HIGHS. REGARDLESS...THANKSGIVING WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE AND LARGELY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE
CWA. ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED
ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG
PACIFIC SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL PUSH A
WEAK BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH...WITH  SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SUNDAY)...THE SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH A SHALLOW BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN
UT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF I-80 EARLY
SUNDAY BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. HAVE
INCREASED POPS 10-20 PERCENT ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80 DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY TIMEFRAME.

WITH THIS WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY...A VERY
MILD AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE 12Z MODEL SUITE HAS SLOWED DOWN ON THE TIMING OF A MOIST
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS NOW EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...OR POSSIBLY
EVEN SLOWER IF THE 12Z ECMWF IS TO BE BELIEVED. AS SUCH HAVE
LARGELY REMOVED POPS FROM THE MONDAY TIMEFRAME...AND FOCUSED THE
HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALSO TRENDED MORE
TOWARD A VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW EVENT WITH SNOW LEVELS
REMAINING AROUND 7 KFT.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH 02-03Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO 7 KTS OR SO THROUGH ABOUT
02Z.


&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

KRUSE/SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 261714
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1014 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A COOLING TREND
TO NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY WHILE THE SOUTH REMAINS MILD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE SIERRA/CASCADES IS MAINTAINING A DRY AND MILD AIRMASS
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
DAMPEN A BIT AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 20-02Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 261714
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1014 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A COOLING TREND
TO NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY WHILE THE SOUTH REMAINS MILD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE SIERRA/CASCADES IS MAINTAINING A DRY AND MILD AIRMASS
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
DAMPEN A BIT AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 20-02Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 261123
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
423 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY)...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE WEST COAST STATES WILL FLATTEN AS IT EXPANDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. THE RESULTANT BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL KEEP COLD AIR AND DEEP LAYER WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH
OF UTAH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
UPWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...THEN LEVEL OFF A BIT BUT
REMAIN ABOVE LATE NOVEMBER NORMALS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A REMOTE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL EXIST NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER LATE SATURDAY. THE
INCREASINGLY MOIST WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SAGGING INTO FAR
NORTHERN UTAH COULD GENERATE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR LIGHT PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SUNDAY)...A MOIST CONVERGENT ZONAL FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST MODELS MORE CONVINCED THAT
A SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE STATE ON SUNDAY WILL DELIVER
PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN UTAH. AS SUCH HAVE RAMPED UP POPS A
BIT IN THIS REGION.

HEIGHTS RISE ON MONDAY AS A PACIFIC TROUGH NUDGES TOWARD UTAH. WINDS
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY STATEWIDE AND TEMPERATURES HOVER WELL ABOVE
NORMALS IN THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE SYSTEM SPLITTING
AS IT NEARS THE STATE. BOTH PUSH BACK THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
ONSET AND SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT PLOWING INTO THE NORTHERN REGION
ON TUESDAY...WITH PRECIP CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. 06Z RUN OF GFS
MUCH CLOSER TO EC IN KEEPING WARM TEMPS THROUGH DURATION OF
PRECIP...WHICH AT THIS POINT WOULD SUGGEST A PRIMARILY RAIN EVENT
FOR THE VALLEYS WITH RATHER HIGH SNOW LEVELS. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH
OVERALL INCONSISTENCY TO ALTER CURRENT SNOW LEVELS AND TEMPS TO
REFLECT THIS LATEST MODEL SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY CEILINGS WELL ABOVE 6000 FT AGL
ARE EXPECTED AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 20Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 261123
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
423 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY)...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE WEST COAST STATES WILL FLATTEN AS IT EXPANDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. THE RESULTANT BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL KEEP COLD AIR AND DEEP LAYER WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH
OF UTAH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
UPWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...THEN LEVEL OFF A BIT BUT
REMAIN ABOVE LATE NOVEMBER NORMALS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A REMOTE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL EXIST NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER LATE SATURDAY. THE
INCREASINGLY MOIST WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SAGGING INTO FAR
NORTHERN UTAH COULD GENERATE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR LIGHT PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SUNDAY)...A MOIST CONVERGENT ZONAL FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST MODELS MORE CONVINCED THAT
A SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE STATE ON SUNDAY WILL DELIVER
PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN UTAH. AS SUCH HAVE RAMPED UP POPS A
BIT IN THIS REGION.

HEIGHTS RISE ON MONDAY AS A PACIFIC TROUGH NUDGES TOWARD UTAH. WINDS
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY STATEWIDE AND TEMPERATURES HOVER WELL ABOVE
NORMALS IN THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE SYSTEM SPLITTING
AS IT NEARS THE STATE. BOTH PUSH BACK THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
ONSET AND SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT PLOWING INTO THE NORTHERN REGION
ON TUESDAY...WITH PRECIP CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. 06Z RUN OF GFS
MUCH CLOSER TO EC IN KEEPING WARM TEMPS THROUGH DURATION OF
PRECIP...WHICH AT THIS POINT WOULD SUGGEST A PRIMARILY RAIN EVENT
FOR THE VALLEYS WITH RATHER HIGH SNOW LEVELS. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH
OVERALL INCONSISTENCY TO ALTER CURRENT SNOW LEVELS AND TEMPS TO
REFLECT THIS LATEST MODEL SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY CEILINGS WELL ABOVE 6000 FT AGL
ARE EXPECTED AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 20Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 261123
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
423 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY)...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE WEST COAST STATES WILL FLATTEN AS IT EXPANDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. THE RESULTANT BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL KEEP COLD AIR AND DEEP LAYER WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH
OF UTAH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
UPWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...THEN LEVEL OFF A BIT BUT
REMAIN ABOVE LATE NOVEMBER NORMALS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A REMOTE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL EXIST NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER LATE SATURDAY. THE
INCREASINGLY MOIST WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SAGGING INTO FAR
NORTHERN UTAH COULD GENERATE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR LIGHT PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SUNDAY)...A MOIST CONVERGENT ZONAL FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST MODELS MORE CONVINCED THAT
A SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE STATE ON SUNDAY WILL DELIVER
PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN UTAH. AS SUCH HAVE RAMPED UP POPS A
BIT IN THIS REGION.

HEIGHTS RISE ON MONDAY AS A PACIFIC TROUGH NUDGES TOWARD UTAH. WINDS
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY STATEWIDE AND TEMPERATURES HOVER WELL ABOVE
NORMALS IN THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE SYSTEM SPLITTING
AS IT NEARS THE STATE. BOTH PUSH BACK THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
ONSET AND SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT PLOWING INTO THE NORTHERN REGION
ON TUESDAY...WITH PRECIP CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. 06Z RUN OF GFS
MUCH CLOSER TO EC IN KEEPING WARM TEMPS THROUGH DURATION OF
PRECIP...WHICH AT THIS POINT WOULD SUGGEST A PRIMARILY RAIN EVENT
FOR THE VALLEYS WITH RATHER HIGH SNOW LEVELS. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH
OVERALL INCONSISTENCY TO ALTER CURRENT SNOW LEVELS AND TEMPS TO
REFLECT THIS LATEST MODEL SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY CEILINGS WELL ABOVE 6000 FT AGL
ARE EXPECTED AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 20Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 261123
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
423 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY)...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE WEST COAST STATES WILL FLATTEN AS IT EXPANDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. THE RESULTANT BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL KEEP COLD AIR AND DEEP LAYER WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH
OF UTAH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
UPWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...THEN LEVEL OFF A BIT BUT
REMAIN ABOVE LATE NOVEMBER NORMALS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A REMOTE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL EXIST NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER LATE SATURDAY. THE
INCREASINGLY MOIST WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SAGGING INTO FAR
NORTHERN UTAH COULD GENERATE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR LIGHT PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SUNDAY)...A MOIST CONVERGENT ZONAL FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST MODELS MORE CONVINCED THAT
A SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE STATE ON SUNDAY WILL DELIVER
PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN UTAH. AS SUCH HAVE RAMPED UP POPS A
BIT IN THIS REGION.

HEIGHTS RISE ON MONDAY AS A PACIFIC TROUGH NUDGES TOWARD UTAH. WINDS
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY STATEWIDE AND TEMPERATURES HOVER WELL ABOVE
NORMALS IN THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE SYSTEM SPLITTING
AS IT NEARS THE STATE. BOTH PUSH BACK THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
ONSET AND SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT PLOWING INTO THE NORTHERN REGION
ON TUESDAY...WITH PRECIP CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. 06Z RUN OF GFS
MUCH CLOSER TO EC IN KEEPING WARM TEMPS THROUGH DURATION OF
PRECIP...WHICH AT THIS POINT WOULD SUGGEST A PRIMARILY RAIN EVENT
FOR THE VALLEYS WITH RATHER HIGH SNOW LEVELS. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH
OVERALL INCONSISTENCY TO ALTER CURRENT SNOW LEVELS AND TEMPS TO
REFLECT THIS LATEST MODEL SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY CEILINGS WELL ABOVE 6000 FT AGL
ARE EXPECTED AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 20Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 260438
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
938 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UTAH REMAINS UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW THIS
EVENING...WITH MOIST WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS. ALTHOUGH A FEW VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE
STILL PRESENT...THESE HAVE DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER JET CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY
AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED ON
THE HIGHER PEAKS...AND SHOULD REMAIN RATHER GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE TREND SHOULD POINT DOWNWARD AS WELL. WINTER WEATHER
AND WIND HIGHLIGHTS WERE EXPIRED/CANCELLED EARLIER THIS EVENING AS
ANY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS WILL BE MINOR.

UPDATED FORECAST TO ADJUST WINDS...LOWER POPS...AND MAKE MINOR
TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT MINS.


&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 6000FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY OPERATIONAL CONCERN AT THE KSLC TERMINAL TONIGHT. EXPECT
THESE CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 07-09Z...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THEY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

CHENG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 260438
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
938 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UTAH REMAINS UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW THIS
EVENING...WITH MOIST WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS. ALTHOUGH A FEW VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE
STILL PRESENT...THESE HAVE DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER JET CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY
AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED ON
THE HIGHER PEAKS...AND SHOULD REMAIN RATHER GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE TREND SHOULD POINT DOWNWARD AS WELL. WINTER WEATHER
AND WIND HIGHLIGHTS WERE EXPIRED/CANCELLED EARLIER THIS EVENING AS
ANY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS WILL BE MINOR.

UPDATED FORECAST TO ADJUST WINDS...LOWER POPS...AND MAKE MINOR
TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT MINS.


&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 6000FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY OPERATIONAL CONCERN AT THE KSLC TERMINAL TONIGHT. EXPECT
THESE CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 07-09Z...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THEY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

CHENG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




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