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000
FXUS65 KSLC 021540
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
940 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN INCREASING
MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A NW-SE ORIENTED MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN OF NV THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO
THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX. TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THIS RIDGE
AXIS A COMBINATION OF PW IMAGERY AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY...WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS AXIS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UT. A COUPLE OF WEAK
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS AXIS MAINTAINED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTH...AND HAVE BEEN ON THE DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS. ANTICIPATE THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING...HOWEVER AS RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER BURNS OFF THIS
AFTERNOON ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO FIRE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PW VALUES REMAINING IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LIGHT STEERING
FLOW...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. FURTHER NORTH A
DRIER AIRMASS COUPLED WITH SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE
AXIS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT ANY THREAT FOR CONVECTION...WITH
ONLY PERHAPS AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO OVER THE HIGH UINTAS.

THIS RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MORE OR LESS REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE BUILDING EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH
THIS EASTWARD EXPANSION MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NV
SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER TO INCREASE MORNING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...NO OPERATIONAL CONCERNS EXIST AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST
BY 17Z.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 021540
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
940 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN INCREASING
MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A NW-SE ORIENTED MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN OF NV THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO
THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX. TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THIS RIDGE
AXIS A COMBINATION OF PW IMAGERY AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY...WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS AXIS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UT. A COUPLE OF WEAK
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS AXIS MAINTAINED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTH...AND HAVE BEEN ON THE DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS. ANTICIPATE THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING...HOWEVER AS RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER BURNS OFF THIS
AFTERNOON ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO FIRE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PW VALUES REMAINING IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LIGHT STEERING
FLOW...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. FURTHER NORTH A
DRIER AIRMASS COUPLED WITH SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE
AXIS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT ANY THREAT FOR CONVECTION...WITH
ONLY PERHAPS AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO OVER THE HIGH UINTAS.

THIS RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MORE OR LESS REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE BUILDING EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH
THIS EASTWARD EXPANSION MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NV
SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER TO INCREASE MORNING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...NO OPERATIONAL CONCERNS EXIST AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST
BY 17Z.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 021540
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
940 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN INCREASING
MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A NW-SE ORIENTED MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN OF NV THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO
THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX. TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THIS RIDGE
AXIS A COMBINATION OF PW IMAGERY AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY...WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS AXIS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UT. A COUPLE OF WEAK
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS AXIS MAINTAINED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTH...AND HAVE BEEN ON THE DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS. ANTICIPATE THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING...HOWEVER AS RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER BURNS OFF THIS
AFTERNOON ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO FIRE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PW VALUES REMAINING IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LIGHT STEERING
FLOW...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. FURTHER NORTH A
DRIER AIRMASS COUPLED WITH SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE
AXIS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT ANY THREAT FOR CONVECTION...WITH
ONLY PERHAPS AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO OVER THE HIGH UINTAS.

THIS RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MORE OR LESS REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE BUILDING EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH
THIS EASTWARD EXPANSION MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NV
SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER TO INCREASE MORNING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...NO OPERATIONAL CONCERNS EXIST AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST
BY 17Z.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 021540
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
940 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN INCREASING
MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A NW-SE ORIENTED MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN OF NV THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO
THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX. TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THIS RIDGE
AXIS A COMBINATION OF PW IMAGERY AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY...WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS AXIS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UT. A COUPLE OF WEAK
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS AXIS MAINTAINED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTH...AND HAVE BEEN ON THE DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS. ANTICIPATE THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING...HOWEVER AS RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER BURNS OFF THIS
AFTERNOON ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO FIRE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PW VALUES REMAINING IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LIGHT STEERING
FLOW...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. FURTHER NORTH A
DRIER AIRMASS COUPLED WITH SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE
AXIS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT ANY THREAT FOR CONVECTION...WITH
ONLY PERHAPS AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO OVER THE HIGH UINTAS.

THIS RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MORE OR LESS REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE BUILDING EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH
THIS EASTWARD EXPANSION MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NV
SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER TO INCREASE MORNING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...NO OPERATIONAL CONCERNS EXIST AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST
BY 17Z.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 021540
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
940 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN INCREASING
MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A NW-SE ORIENTED MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN OF NV THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO
THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX. TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THIS RIDGE
AXIS A COMBINATION OF PW IMAGERY AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY...WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS AXIS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UT. A COUPLE OF WEAK
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS AXIS MAINTAINED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTH...AND HAVE BEEN ON THE DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS. ANTICIPATE THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING...HOWEVER AS RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER BURNS OFF THIS
AFTERNOON ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO FIRE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PW VALUES REMAINING IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LIGHT STEERING
FLOW...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. FURTHER NORTH A
DRIER AIRMASS COUPLED WITH SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE
AXIS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT ANY THREAT FOR CONVECTION...WITH
ONLY PERHAPS AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO OVER THE HIGH UINTAS.

THIS RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MORE OR LESS REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE BUILDING EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH
THIS EASTWARD EXPANSION MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NV
SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER TO INCREASE MORNING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...NO OPERATIONAL CONCERNS EXIST AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST
BY 17Z.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 021540
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
940 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN INCREASING
MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A NW-SE ORIENTED MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN OF NV THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO
THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX. TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THIS RIDGE
AXIS A COMBINATION OF PW IMAGERY AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY...WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS AXIS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UT. A COUPLE OF WEAK
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS AXIS MAINTAINED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTH...AND HAVE BEEN ON THE DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS. ANTICIPATE THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING...HOWEVER AS RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER BURNS OFF THIS
AFTERNOON ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO FIRE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PW VALUES REMAINING IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LIGHT STEERING
FLOW...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. FURTHER NORTH A
DRIER AIRMASS COUPLED WITH SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE
AXIS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT ANY THREAT FOR CONVECTION...WITH
ONLY PERHAPS AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO OVER THE HIGH UINTAS.

THIS RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MORE OR LESS REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE BUILDING EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH
THIS EASTWARD EXPANSION MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NV
SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER TO INCREASE MORNING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...NO OPERATIONAL CONCERNS EXIST AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST
BY 17Z.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 021025
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
425 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN INCREASING
MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS ORIENTED NW-SE FROM THE
NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING.
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH HAS STARTED TO
BRING DRIER AIR TO THE AREA...WITH THE MOISTURE BECOMING SQUASHED TO
THE SOUTH. GOES ESTIMATES SHOW PWAT GENERALLY 0.9 INCHES OR LESS
ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL ZONES...WHILE REMAINING IN THE 1.0-1.3 INCH
RANGE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH WHERE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE
UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THAT
AREA.

CONVECTION REMAINED ACTIVE OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH...WITH
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL IN PLACE CURRENTLY.
EXPECT SOUTHERN UTAH TO CONTINUE TO SEE THE BRUNT OF THE CONVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE AS THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DRY. STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THAT PWATS ARE STILL RATHER HIGH.

THE NORTHWESTERLIES WILL PUSH A BIT FARTHER SOUTH TOMORROW WITH A
CONTINUED DRYING TREND EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
TOMORROW...AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH...BUT SHOULD SEE DECREASING
COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...A VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BOTH
TODAY AND TOMORROW.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START SHIFTING EAST TOMORROW NIGHT AND BECOME
SITUATED OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD START MAKING A RETURN
TO THE AREA...BEGINNING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH
SATURDAY...THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO COLORADO. ADDITIONALLY...GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CROSSING NORTHERN UTAH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS
DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA...WILL
SEE A CORRESPONDING DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

THE RIDGE IS PROGGED FLATTEN SUNDAY DUE TO A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE RIDGE WILL THEN BULGE BACK UP
SLIGHTLY OVER NEVADA AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS
WILL KEEP A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A SLOW DRYING TREND FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE KSLC TERMINAL WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 16-18Z. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD SHIFT
EVEN EARLIER AROUND 14-15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH WILL
SLOWLY DRY TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS WITH STORMS. STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED FRIDAY. THERE ALSO REMAINS A THREAT OF
ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY WITH THIS TREND
CONTINUING SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
WETTING RAINS AREA WIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH SATURDAY THEN START TO COOL DOWN WITH THE MOISTURE INFLUX.
THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 021025
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
425 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN INCREASING
MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS ORIENTED NW-SE FROM THE
NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING.
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH HAS STARTED TO
BRING DRIER AIR TO THE AREA...WITH THE MOISTURE BECOMING SQUASHED TO
THE SOUTH. GOES ESTIMATES SHOW PWAT GENERALLY 0.9 INCHES OR LESS
ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL ZONES...WHILE REMAINING IN THE 1.0-1.3 INCH
RANGE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH WHERE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE
UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THAT
AREA.

CONVECTION REMAINED ACTIVE OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH...WITH
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL IN PLACE CURRENTLY.
EXPECT SOUTHERN UTAH TO CONTINUE TO SEE THE BRUNT OF THE CONVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE AS THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DRY. STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THAT PWATS ARE STILL RATHER HIGH.

THE NORTHWESTERLIES WILL PUSH A BIT FARTHER SOUTH TOMORROW WITH A
CONTINUED DRYING TREND EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
TOMORROW...AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH...BUT SHOULD SEE DECREASING
COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...A VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BOTH
TODAY AND TOMORROW.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START SHIFTING EAST TOMORROW NIGHT AND BECOME
SITUATED OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD START MAKING A RETURN
TO THE AREA...BEGINNING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH
SATURDAY...THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO COLORADO. ADDITIONALLY...GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CROSSING NORTHERN UTAH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS
DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA...WILL
SEE A CORRESPONDING DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

THE RIDGE IS PROGGED FLATTEN SUNDAY DUE TO A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE RIDGE WILL THEN BULGE BACK UP
SLIGHTLY OVER NEVADA AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS
WILL KEEP A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A SLOW DRYING TREND FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE KSLC TERMINAL WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 16-18Z. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD SHIFT
EVEN EARLIER AROUND 14-15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH WILL
SLOWLY DRY TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS WITH STORMS. STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED FRIDAY. THERE ALSO REMAINS A THREAT OF
ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY WITH THIS TREND
CONTINUING SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
WETTING RAINS AREA WIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH SATURDAY THEN START TO COOL DOWN WITH THE MOISTURE INFLUX.
THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 021025
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
425 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN INCREASING
MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS ORIENTED NW-SE FROM THE
NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING.
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH HAS STARTED TO
BRING DRIER AIR TO THE AREA...WITH THE MOISTURE BECOMING SQUASHED TO
THE SOUTH. GOES ESTIMATES SHOW PWAT GENERALLY 0.9 INCHES OR LESS
ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL ZONES...WHILE REMAINING IN THE 1.0-1.3 INCH
RANGE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH WHERE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE
UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THAT
AREA.

CONVECTION REMAINED ACTIVE OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH...WITH
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL IN PLACE CURRENTLY.
EXPECT SOUTHERN UTAH TO CONTINUE TO SEE THE BRUNT OF THE CONVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE AS THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DRY. STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THAT PWATS ARE STILL RATHER HIGH.

THE NORTHWESTERLIES WILL PUSH A BIT FARTHER SOUTH TOMORROW WITH A
CONTINUED DRYING TREND EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
TOMORROW...AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH...BUT SHOULD SEE DECREASING
COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...A VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BOTH
TODAY AND TOMORROW.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START SHIFTING EAST TOMORROW NIGHT AND BECOME
SITUATED OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD START MAKING A RETURN
TO THE AREA...BEGINNING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH
SATURDAY...THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO COLORADO. ADDITIONALLY...GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CROSSING NORTHERN UTAH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS
DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA...WILL
SEE A CORRESPONDING DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

THE RIDGE IS PROGGED FLATTEN SUNDAY DUE TO A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE RIDGE WILL THEN BULGE BACK UP
SLIGHTLY OVER NEVADA AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS
WILL KEEP A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A SLOW DRYING TREND FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE KSLC TERMINAL WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 16-18Z. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD SHIFT
EVEN EARLIER AROUND 14-15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH WILL
SLOWLY DRY TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS WITH STORMS. STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED FRIDAY. THERE ALSO REMAINS A THREAT OF
ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY WITH THIS TREND
CONTINUING SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
WETTING RAINS AREA WIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH SATURDAY THEN START TO COOL DOWN WITH THE MOISTURE INFLUX.
THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 020201
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
801 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE ELONGATING
NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEVADA FROM THE FOUR CORNERS. AMDAR
400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A 75-90KT NORTHWESERLY JET FROM
ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER PLAINS. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z
SLC RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN
0.45" NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...TO 1.00"- 1.40" ACROSS MOST VALLEYS.

GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. COMBINATION OF SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEPT MUCH ACTIVITY FROM GETTING GOING
ACROSS THE NORTH. HAVE EXPANDED MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
MOST OF SOUTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL UTAH OVERNIGHT PER RADAR TRENDS
AND LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR-3KM.

OTHERWISE UTILIZED COMBINATION OF PERSISTENCE AND LAMP GUIDANCE FOR
THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT CURVE OVERNIGHT.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS OVER NEVADA. A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS OVER UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING WITH PWS AROUND 1.0 INCH. THE REPOSITIONING OF
THE RIDGE AXIS HAS PUT THE AREA UNDER A MORE N/NW FLOW...AND THIS IS
ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO START TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL...WITH
DECENT MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THOUGH COVERAGE IS A BIT LESS
THAN YESTERDAY. STILL THINK DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING SO HAVE NOT CHANGED POPS MUCH. MAXES ALSO RUNNING A LITTLE
BIT COOLER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY BUT STILL 5-10F ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES SLOWLY EAST.
BECAUSE OF THIS...COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. BY SATURDAY...THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD SO LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED...BUT
MAXES SHOULD START TO WARM AGAIN WITH 100F POSSIBLE AGAIN ALONG THE
WASATCH FRONT.

GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY SUNDAY...AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO S/SW. THIS WILL DRAW
TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA...INCREASING CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION WHILE BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THOUGH GUIDANCE YESTERDAY INDICATED THIS MOISTURE WOULD BE
SHORT LIVED...GFS/EC TODAY ARE BACK TO HOLDING ONTO THIS MOISTURE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT POPS COVER THE TREND WELL AND DID
NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OR SWITCH TO
THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 04Z-06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE UTAH/NEVADA BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ENDING
UP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
SERVE TO REDUCE THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL STILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION
THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE RECENTERING OF THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTH INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN PEAK ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE EARLY JULY NORMALS
WITH  RH VALUES LOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. INCREASED
CONVECTIVE PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO COOLER MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH HIGHER RH VALUES AND
BETTER NIGHT TIME RECOVERIES.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CONGER
AVIATION...ROGOWSKI

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 020201
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
801 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE ELONGATING
NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEVADA FROM THE FOUR CORNERS. AMDAR
400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A 75-90KT NORTHWESERLY JET FROM
ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER PLAINS. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z
SLC RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN
0.45" NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...TO 1.00"- 1.40" ACROSS MOST VALLEYS.

GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. COMBINATION OF SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEPT MUCH ACTIVITY FROM GETTING GOING
ACROSS THE NORTH. HAVE EXPANDED MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
MOST OF SOUTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL UTAH OVERNIGHT PER RADAR TRENDS
AND LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR-3KM.

OTHERWISE UTILIZED COMBINATION OF PERSISTENCE AND LAMP GUIDANCE FOR
THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT CURVE OVERNIGHT.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS OVER NEVADA. A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS OVER UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING WITH PWS AROUND 1.0 INCH. THE REPOSITIONING OF
THE RIDGE AXIS HAS PUT THE AREA UNDER A MORE N/NW FLOW...AND THIS IS
ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO START TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL...WITH
DECENT MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THOUGH COVERAGE IS A BIT LESS
THAN YESTERDAY. STILL THINK DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING SO HAVE NOT CHANGED POPS MUCH. MAXES ALSO RUNNING A LITTLE
BIT COOLER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY BUT STILL 5-10F ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES SLOWLY EAST.
BECAUSE OF THIS...COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. BY SATURDAY...THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD SO LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED...BUT
MAXES SHOULD START TO WARM AGAIN WITH 100F POSSIBLE AGAIN ALONG THE
WASATCH FRONT.

GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY SUNDAY...AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO S/SW. THIS WILL DRAW
TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA...INCREASING CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION WHILE BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THOUGH GUIDANCE YESTERDAY INDICATED THIS MOISTURE WOULD BE
SHORT LIVED...GFS/EC TODAY ARE BACK TO HOLDING ONTO THIS MOISTURE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT POPS COVER THE TREND WELL AND DID
NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OR SWITCH TO
THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 04Z-06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE UTAH/NEVADA BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ENDING
UP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
SERVE TO REDUCE THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL STILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION
THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE RECENTERING OF THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTH INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN PEAK ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE EARLY JULY NORMALS
WITH  RH VALUES LOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. INCREASED
CONVECTIVE PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO COOLER MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH HIGHER RH VALUES AND
BETTER NIGHT TIME RECOVERIES.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CONGER
AVIATION...ROGOWSKI

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 020201
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
801 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE ELONGATING
NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEVADA FROM THE FOUR CORNERS. AMDAR
400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A 75-90KT NORTHWESERLY JET FROM
ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER PLAINS. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z
SLC RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN
0.45" NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...TO 1.00"- 1.40" ACROSS MOST VALLEYS.

GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. COMBINATION OF SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEPT MUCH ACTIVITY FROM GETTING GOING
ACROSS THE NORTH. HAVE EXPANDED MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
MOST OF SOUTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL UTAH OVERNIGHT PER RADAR TRENDS
AND LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR-3KM.

OTHERWISE UTILIZED COMBINATION OF PERSISTENCE AND LAMP GUIDANCE FOR
THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT CURVE OVERNIGHT.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS OVER NEVADA. A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS OVER UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING WITH PWS AROUND 1.0 INCH. THE REPOSITIONING OF
THE RIDGE AXIS HAS PUT THE AREA UNDER A MORE N/NW FLOW...AND THIS IS
ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO START TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL...WITH
DECENT MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THOUGH COVERAGE IS A BIT LESS
THAN YESTERDAY. STILL THINK DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING SO HAVE NOT CHANGED POPS MUCH. MAXES ALSO RUNNING A LITTLE
BIT COOLER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY BUT STILL 5-10F ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES SLOWLY EAST.
BECAUSE OF THIS...COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. BY SATURDAY...THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD SO LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED...BUT
MAXES SHOULD START TO WARM AGAIN WITH 100F POSSIBLE AGAIN ALONG THE
WASATCH FRONT.

GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY SUNDAY...AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO S/SW. THIS WILL DRAW
TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA...INCREASING CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION WHILE BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THOUGH GUIDANCE YESTERDAY INDICATED THIS MOISTURE WOULD BE
SHORT LIVED...GFS/EC TODAY ARE BACK TO HOLDING ONTO THIS MOISTURE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT POPS COVER THE TREND WELL AND DID
NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OR SWITCH TO
THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 04Z-06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE UTAH/NEVADA BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ENDING
UP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
SERVE TO REDUCE THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL STILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION
THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE RECENTERING OF THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTH INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN PEAK ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE EARLY JULY NORMALS
WITH  RH VALUES LOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. INCREASED
CONVECTIVE PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO COOLER MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH HIGHER RH VALUES AND
BETTER NIGHT TIME RECOVERIES.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CONGER
AVIATION...ROGOWSKI

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 020201
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
801 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE ELONGATING
NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEVADA FROM THE FOUR CORNERS. AMDAR
400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A 75-90KT NORTHWESERLY JET FROM
ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER PLAINS. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z
SLC RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN
0.45" NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...TO 1.00"- 1.40" ACROSS MOST VALLEYS.

GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. COMBINATION OF SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEPT MUCH ACTIVITY FROM GETTING GOING
ACROSS THE NORTH. HAVE EXPANDED MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
MOST OF SOUTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL UTAH OVERNIGHT PER RADAR TRENDS
AND LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR-3KM.

OTHERWISE UTILIZED COMBINATION OF PERSISTENCE AND LAMP GUIDANCE FOR
THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT CURVE OVERNIGHT.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS OVER NEVADA. A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS OVER UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING WITH PWS AROUND 1.0 INCH. THE REPOSITIONING OF
THE RIDGE AXIS HAS PUT THE AREA UNDER A MORE N/NW FLOW...AND THIS IS
ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO START TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL...WITH
DECENT MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THOUGH COVERAGE IS A BIT LESS
THAN YESTERDAY. STILL THINK DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING SO HAVE NOT CHANGED POPS MUCH. MAXES ALSO RUNNING A LITTLE
BIT COOLER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY BUT STILL 5-10F ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES SLOWLY EAST.
BECAUSE OF THIS...COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. BY SATURDAY...THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD SO LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED...BUT
MAXES SHOULD START TO WARM AGAIN WITH 100F POSSIBLE AGAIN ALONG THE
WASATCH FRONT.

GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY SUNDAY...AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO S/SW. THIS WILL DRAW
TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA...INCREASING CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION WHILE BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THOUGH GUIDANCE YESTERDAY INDICATED THIS MOISTURE WOULD BE
SHORT LIVED...GFS/EC TODAY ARE BACK TO HOLDING ONTO THIS MOISTURE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT POPS COVER THE TREND WELL AND DID
NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OR SWITCH TO
THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 04Z-06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE UTAH/NEVADA BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ENDING
UP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
SERVE TO REDUCE THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL STILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION
THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE RECENTERING OF THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTH INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN PEAK ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE EARLY JULY NORMALS
WITH  RH VALUES LOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. INCREASED
CONVECTIVE PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO COOLER MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH HIGHER RH VALUES AND
BETTER NIGHT TIME RECOVERIES.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CONGER
AVIATION...ROGOWSKI

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 020201
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
801 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE ELONGATING
NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEVADA FROM THE FOUR CORNERS. AMDAR
400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A 75-90KT NORTHWESERLY JET FROM
ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER PLAINS. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z
SLC RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN
0.45" NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...TO 1.00"- 1.40" ACROSS MOST VALLEYS.

GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. COMBINATION OF SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEPT MUCH ACTIVITY FROM GETTING GOING
ACROSS THE NORTH. HAVE EXPANDED MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
MOST OF SOUTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL UTAH OVERNIGHT PER RADAR TRENDS
AND LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR-3KM.

OTHERWISE UTILIZED COMBINATION OF PERSISTENCE AND LAMP GUIDANCE FOR
THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT CURVE OVERNIGHT.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS OVER NEVADA. A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS OVER UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING WITH PWS AROUND 1.0 INCH. THE REPOSITIONING OF
THE RIDGE AXIS HAS PUT THE AREA UNDER A MORE N/NW FLOW...AND THIS IS
ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO START TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL...WITH
DECENT MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THOUGH COVERAGE IS A BIT LESS
THAN YESTERDAY. STILL THINK DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING SO HAVE NOT CHANGED POPS MUCH. MAXES ALSO RUNNING A LITTLE
BIT COOLER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY BUT STILL 5-10F ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES SLOWLY EAST.
BECAUSE OF THIS...COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. BY SATURDAY...THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD SO LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED...BUT
MAXES SHOULD START TO WARM AGAIN WITH 100F POSSIBLE AGAIN ALONG THE
WASATCH FRONT.

GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY SUNDAY...AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO S/SW. THIS WILL DRAW
TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA...INCREASING CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION WHILE BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THOUGH GUIDANCE YESTERDAY INDICATED THIS MOISTURE WOULD BE
SHORT LIVED...GFS/EC TODAY ARE BACK TO HOLDING ONTO THIS MOISTURE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT POPS COVER THE TREND WELL AND DID
NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OR SWITCH TO
THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 04Z-06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE UTAH/NEVADA BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ENDING
UP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
SERVE TO REDUCE THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL STILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION
THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE RECENTERING OF THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTH INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN PEAK ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE EARLY JULY NORMALS
WITH  RH VALUES LOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. INCREASED
CONVECTIVE PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO COOLER MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH HIGHER RH VALUES AND
BETTER NIGHT TIME RECOVERIES.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CONGER
AVIATION...ROGOWSKI

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 012110
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
310 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.



&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER NEVADA. A RELATIVELY MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING WITH PWS AROUND
1.0 INCH. THE REPOSITIONING OF THE RIDGE AXIS HAS PUT THE AREA
UNDER A MORE N/NW FLOW...AND THIS IS ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO START
TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL...WITH DECENT MOISTURE IN PLACE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...THOUGH COVERAGE IS A BIT LESS THAN YESTERDAY. STILL
THINK DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING SO HAVE NOT
CHANGED POPS MUCH. MAXES ALSO RUNNING A LITTLE BIT COOLER TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY BUT STILL 5-10F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES SLOWLY EAST.
BECAUSE OF THIS...COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. BY SATURDAY...THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD SO LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED...BUT
MAXES SHOULD START TO WARM AGAIN WITH 100F POSSIBLE AGAIN ALONG
THE WASATCH FRONT.

GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY SUNDAY...AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO S/SW. THIS WILL
DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA...INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WHILE BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS. THOUGH GUIDANCE YESTERDAY INDICATED THIS
MOISTURE WOULD BE SHORT LIVED...GFS/EC TODAY ARE BACK TO HOLDING
ONTO THIS MOISTURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT POPS COVER THE
TREND WELL AND DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH AROUND 04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE UTAH/NEVADA BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ENDING
UP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
SERVE TO REDUCE THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL STILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION
THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE RECENTERING OF THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTH INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN PEAK ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE EARLY JULY NORMALS
WITH  RH VALUES LOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. INCREASED
CONVECTIVE PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO COOLER MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH HIGHER RH VALUES AND
BETTER NIGHT TIME RECOVERIES.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...SEAMAN
FIRE WEATHER...CONGER

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 012110
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
310 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.



&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER NEVADA. A RELATIVELY MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING WITH PWS AROUND
1.0 INCH. THE REPOSITIONING OF THE RIDGE AXIS HAS PUT THE AREA
UNDER A MORE N/NW FLOW...AND THIS IS ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO START
TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL...WITH DECENT MOISTURE IN PLACE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...THOUGH COVERAGE IS A BIT LESS THAN YESTERDAY. STILL
THINK DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING SO HAVE NOT
CHANGED POPS MUCH. MAXES ALSO RUNNING A LITTLE BIT COOLER TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY BUT STILL 5-10F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES SLOWLY EAST.
BECAUSE OF THIS...COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. BY SATURDAY...THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD SO LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED...BUT
MAXES SHOULD START TO WARM AGAIN WITH 100F POSSIBLE AGAIN ALONG
THE WASATCH FRONT.

GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY SUNDAY...AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO S/SW. THIS WILL
DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA...INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WHILE BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS. THOUGH GUIDANCE YESTERDAY INDICATED THIS
MOISTURE WOULD BE SHORT LIVED...GFS/EC TODAY ARE BACK TO HOLDING
ONTO THIS MOISTURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT POPS COVER THE
TREND WELL AND DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH AROUND 04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE UTAH/NEVADA BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ENDING
UP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
SERVE TO REDUCE THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL STILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION
THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE RECENTERING OF THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTH INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN PEAK ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE EARLY JULY NORMALS
WITH  RH VALUES LOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. INCREASED
CONVECTIVE PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO COOLER MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH HIGHER RH VALUES AND
BETTER NIGHT TIME RECOVERIES.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...SEAMAN
FIRE WEATHER...CONGER

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 011605
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1005 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BUT STILL SEEING SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH
A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. SATELLITE DERIVED PWS ARE
AROUND 1.0 INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME A LITTLE HIGHER.
HOWEVER...RIDGE AXIS IS REDEVELOPING WEST OF THE AREA BEHIND AN
EXITING PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH...PUTTING UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING UNDER A LIGHT N/NWLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW
DRYING TO BEGIN FROM THE NORTH TODAY. THUS...CONVECTION WILL BE
SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED OVER THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE
REMAINING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH.
MAXES WILL REMAIN AROUND 10F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...BUT SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH A BIT OF WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE.

DRYING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST...GIVING THE FLOW ALOFT MORE OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT.
BECAUSE OF THIS...AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED
AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BY SUNDAY...GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THE RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA...SHIFTING THE FLOW TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL DRAW
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO UTAH FROM THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. RESULTANT INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL ALSO DROP MAX TEMPS A
BIT...THOUGH THEY SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST 5F ABOVE CLIMO FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

NO UPDATES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT THE TERMINAL THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE GOTTEN AN EARLY
START AT THE KSLC TERMINAL. THESE WINDS WILL SEE A MODEST INCREASE
IN SPEEDS THROUGH EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL FIRE
UP OVER THE SURROUNDING HIGHER TERRAIN BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY STAY TIED TO THE
TERRAIN WITH MINIMAL DIRECT IMPACT TO THE TERMINAL THROUGH 00Z. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS COULD DEVELOP AS THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE WESTWARD TODAY OVER
NEVADA ALLOWING FOR A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BUT AS THE AIR MASS DRIES THE CHANCE OF
ANY WETTING RAINS AFTER TODAY WILL BE SLIM IF ANY AND ONLY ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS COME
UP OVER MUCH OF THE DISTRICT AND WILL BE AT ITS HIGHEST MINIMUM
DAYTIME LEVELS TODAY...IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS...THEN LOWER
TOWARDS 10 PERCENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO ARIZONA SATURDAY THIS WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS MOISTURE FEED WILL INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...CONGER
FIRE WEATHER...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 011605
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1005 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BUT STILL SEEING SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH
A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. SATELLITE DERIVED PWS ARE
AROUND 1.0 INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME A LITTLE HIGHER.
HOWEVER...RIDGE AXIS IS REDEVELOPING WEST OF THE AREA BEHIND AN
EXITING PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH...PUTTING UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING UNDER A LIGHT N/NWLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW
DRYING TO BEGIN FROM THE NORTH TODAY. THUS...CONVECTION WILL BE
SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED OVER THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE
REMAINING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH.
MAXES WILL REMAIN AROUND 10F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...BUT SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH A BIT OF WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE.

DRYING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST...GIVING THE FLOW ALOFT MORE OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT.
BECAUSE OF THIS...AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED
AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BY SUNDAY...GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THE RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA...SHIFTING THE FLOW TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL DRAW
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO UTAH FROM THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. RESULTANT INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL ALSO DROP MAX TEMPS A
BIT...THOUGH THEY SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST 5F ABOVE CLIMO FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

NO UPDATES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT THE TERMINAL THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE GOTTEN AN EARLY
START AT THE KSLC TERMINAL. THESE WINDS WILL SEE A MODEST INCREASE
IN SPEEDS THROUGH EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL FIRE
UP OVER THE SURROUNDING HIGHER TERRAIN BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY STAY TIED TO THE
TERRAIN WITH MINIMAL DIRECT IMPACT TO THE TERMINAL THROUGH 00Z. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS COULD DEVELOP AS THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE WESTWARD TODAY OVER
NEVADA ALLOWING FOR A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BUT AS THE AIR MASS DRIES THE CHANCE OF
ANY WETTING RAINS AFTER TODAY WILL BE SLIM IF ANY AND ONLY ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS COME
UP OVER MUCH OF THE DISTRICT AND WILL BE AT ITS HIGHEST MINIMUM
DAYTIME LEVELS TODAY...IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS...THEN LOWER
TOWARDS 10 PERCENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO ARIZONA SATURDAY THIS WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS MOISTURE FEED WILL INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...CONGER
FIRE WEATHER...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 011040
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
440 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY)...AIR MASS HAS MOISTENED UP OVER
PAST 24 HRS WITH PWS NEARLY AN INCH OVER VALLEYS AND ABOUT 3/4 OF AN
INCH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ABLE TO
PRODUCE ABOUT 0.25 OF AN INCH TUESDAY EVENING...DESPITE GUSTY WINDS
BEING THE MOST COMMON OCCURRENCE WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO A
RELATIVELY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER. WITH THE SUB CLOUD LAYER MOISTENING
A LITTLE MORE OVERNIGHT AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE STILL TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ISOLATED OR HIGHER
ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS MORNING. SPC
HAS A GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY THAT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
VALUES WILL EXCEED 1000J/KG ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING BUT
DECREASE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF
MINUS 2 OR LOWER ALSO SUPPORT THIS INSTABILITY THIS MORNING BETWEEN
15 AND 18Z. WHILE SOME OF THESE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE ALSO
PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING BELIEVE WE NEED A LITTLE
FORCING TO REALIZE THE INSTABILITY. IN THIS CASE ITS THE DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE 700-500 MB THETA E RIDGE
FIELD WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE
WITH PWS DROPPING DOWN BELOW 0.50 OF AN INCH BY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. THIS DRIER AIR WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL UTAH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT SOUTHERN UTAH
WILL STILL BE MOIST ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE THE
GFS SHOWING THIS DRYING MAKING IS WAY INTO SOUTHERN UTAH FRIDAY HAVE
LEFT SOME TOKEN POPS IN AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT FULL DRYING WILL
TAKE PLACE.


.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z SATURDAY)...THE NW-SE ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS WILL
START MIGRATING EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE MORE VERTICALLY
SITUATED OVERHEAD AGAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE STARTING TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH WITH A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM...18-20C AT 700MB EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST
WHERE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF UTAH FOR SUNDAY...OPENING THE DOOR TO
EVEN MORE MOISTURE. FURTHERMORE...WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW ALONG THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE COULD ALLOW FOR ENHANCED
SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THIS TIME. THIS WETTER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL YIELD A COOLING TREND THAT...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE A BIT
WARMER THAN NORMAL...WILL BRING A RESPITE FROM THE HOT TEMPERATURES
OF LATE.

THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE RESULTING WESTERLY FLOW WILL
THEN START TO BRING A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL
TAKE A FEW DAYS TO EVACUATE THE MOISTURE SO WENT WITH A SLOW DRYING
TREND AS ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
ABOUT 15-16Z THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN ABOUT 15 AND 20Z TODAY. THESE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE WESTWARD TODAY OVER
NEVADA ALLOWING FOR A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BUT AS THE AIR MASS DRIES THE CHANCE OF
ANY WETTING RAINS AFTER TODAY WILL BE SLIM IF ANY AND ONLY ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS COME
UP OVER MUCH OF THE DISTRICT AND WILL BE AT ITS HIGHEST MINIMUM
DAYTIME LEVELS TODAY...IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS...THEN LOWER
TOWARDS 10 PERCENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO ARIZONA SATURDAY THIS WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS MOISTURE FEED WILL INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 011040
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
440 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY)...AIR MASS HAS MOISTENED UP OVER
PAST 24 HRS WITH PWS NEARLY AN INCH OVER VALLEYS AND ABOUT 3/4 OF AN
INCH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ABLE TO
PRODUCE ABOUT 0.25 OF AN INCH TUESDAY EVENING...DESPITE GUSTY WINDS
BEING THE MOST COMMON OCCURRENCE WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO A
RELATIVELY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER. WITH THE SUB CLOUD LAYER MOISTENING
A LITTLE MORE OVERNIGHT AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE STILL TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ISOLATED OR HIGHER
ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS MORNING. SPC
HAS A GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY THAT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
VALUES WILL EXCEED 1000J/KG ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING BUT
DECREASE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF
MINUS 2 OR LOWER ALSO SUPPORT THIS INSTABILITY THIS MORNING BETWEEN
15 AND 18Z. WHILE SOME OF THESE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE ALSO
PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING BELIEVE WE NEED A LITTLE
FORCING TO REALIZE THE INSTABILITY. IN THIS CASE ITS THE DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE 700-500 MB THETA E RIDGE
FIELD WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE
WITH PWS DROPPING DOWN BELOW 0.50 OF AN INCH BY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. THIS DRIER AIR WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL UTAH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT SOUTHERN UTAH
WILL STILL BE MOIST ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE THE
GFS SHOWING THIS DRYING MAKING IS WAY INTO SOUTHERN UTAH FRIDAY HAVE
LEFT SOME TOKEN POPS IN AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT FULL DRYING WILL
TAKE PLACE.


.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z SATURDAY)...THE NW-SE ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS WILL
START MIGRATING EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE MORE VERTICALLY
SITUATED OVERHEAD AGAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE STARTING TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH WITH A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM...18-20C AT 700MB EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST
WHERE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF UTAH FOR SUNDAY...OPENING THE DOOR TO
EVEN MORE MOISTURE. FURTHERMORE...WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW ALONG THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE COULD ALLOW FOR ENHANCED
SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THIS TIME. THIS WETTER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL YIELD A COOLING TREND THAT...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE A BIT
WARMER THAN NORMAL...WILL BRING A RESPITE FROM THE HOT TEMPERATURES
OF LATE.

THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE RESULTING WESTERLY FLOW WILL
THEN START TO BRING A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL
TAKE A FEW DAYS TO EVACUATE THE MOISTURE SO WENT WITH A SLOW DRYING
TREND AS ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
ABOUT 15-16Z THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN ABOUT 15 AND 20Z TODAY. THESE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE WESTWARD TODAY OVER
NEVADA ALLOWING FOR A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BUT AS THE AIR MASS DRIES THE CHANCE OF
ANY WETTING RAINS AFTER TODAY WILL BE SLIM IF ANY AND ONLY ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS COME
UP OVER MUCH OF THE DISTRICT AND WILL BE AT ITS HIGHEST MINIMUM
DAYTIME LEVELS TODAY...IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS...THEN LOWER
TOWARDS 10 PERCENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO ARIZONA SATURDAY THIS WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS MOISTURE FEED WILL INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 011040
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
440 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY)...AIR MASS HAS MOISTENED UP OVER
PAST 24 HRS WITH PWS NEARLY AN INCH OVER VALLEYS AND ABOUT 3/4 OF AN
INCH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ABLE TO
PRODUCE ABOUT 0.25 OF AN INCH TUESDAY EVENING...DESPITE GUSTY WINDS
BEING THE MOST COMMON OCCURRENCE WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO A
RELATIVELY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER. WITH THE SUB CLOUD LAYER MOISTENING
A LITTLE MORE OVERNIGHT AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE STILL TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ISOLATED OR HIGHER
ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS MORNING. SPC
HAS A GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY THAT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
VALUES WILL EXCEED 1000J/KG ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING BUT
DECREASE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF
MINUS 2 OR LOWER ALSO SUPPORT THIS INSTABILITY THIS MORNING BETWEEN
15 AND 18Z. WHILE SOME OF THESE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE ALSO
PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING BELIEVE WE NEED A LITTLE
FORCING TO REALIZE THE INSTABILITY. IN THIS CASE ITS THE DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE 700-500 MB THETA E RIDGE
FIELD WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE
WITH PWS DROPPING DOWN BELOW 0.50 OF AN INCH BY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. THIS DRIER AIR WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL UTAH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT SOUTHERN UTAH
WILL STILL BE MOIST ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE THE
GFS SHOWING THIS DRYING MAKING IS WAY INTO SOUTHERN UTAH FRIDAY HAVE
LEFT SOME TOKEN POPS IN AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT FULL DRYING WILL
TAKE PLACE.


.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z SATURDAY)...THE NW-SE ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS WILL
START MIGRATING EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE MORE VERTICALLY
SITUATED OVERHEAD AGAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE STARTING TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH WITH A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM...18-20C AT 700MB EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST
WHERE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF UTAH FOR SUNDAY...OPENING THE DOOR TO
EVEN MORE MOISTURE. FURTHERMORE...WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW ALONG THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE COULD ALLOW FOR ENHANCED
SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THIS TIME. THIS WETTER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL YIELD A COOLING TREND THAT...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE A BIT
WARMER THAN NORMAL...WILL BRING A RESPITE FROM THE HOT TEMPERATURES
OF LATE.

THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE RESULTING WESTERLY FLOW WILL
THEN START TO BRING A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL
TAKE A FEW DAYS TO EVACUATE THE MOISTURE SO WENT WITH A SLOW DRYING
TREND AS ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
ABOUT 15-16Z THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN ABOUT 15 AND 20Z TODAY. THESE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE WESTWARD TODAY OVER
NEVADA ALLOWING FOR A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BUT AS THE AIR MASS DRIES THE CHANCE OF
ANY WETTING RAINS AFTER TODAY WILL BE SLIM IF ANY AND ONLY ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS COME
UP OVER MUCH OF THE DISTRICT AND WILL BE AT ITS HIGHEST MINIMUM
DAYTIME LEVELS TODAY...IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS...THEN LOWER
TOWARDS 10 PERCENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO ARIZONA SATURDAY THIS WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS MOISTURE FEED WILL INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 011040
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
440 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY)...AIR MASS HAS MOISTENED UP OVER
PAST 24 HRS WITH PWS NEARLY AN INCH OVER VALLEYS AND ABOUT 3/4 OF AN
INCH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ABLE TO
PRODUCE ABOUT 0.25 OF AN INCH TUESDAY EVENING...DESPITE GUSTY WINDS
BEING THE MOST COMMON OCCURRENCE WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO A
RELATIVELY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER. WITH THE SUB CLOUD LAYER MOISTENING
A LITTLE MORE OVERNIGHT AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE STILL TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ISOLATED OR HIGHER
ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS MORNING. SPC
HAS A GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY THAT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
VALUES WILL EXCEED 1000J/KG ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING BUT
DECREASE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF
MINUS 2 OR LOWER ALSO SUPPORT THIS INSTABILITY THIS MORNING BETWEEN
15 AND 18Z. WHILE SOME OF THESE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE ALSO
PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING BELIEVE WE NEED A LITTLE
FORCING TO REALIZE THE INSTABILITY. IN THIS CASE ITS THE DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE 700-500 MB THETA E RIDGE
FIELD WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE
WITH PWS DROPPING DOWN BELOW 0.50 OF AN INCH BY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. THIS DRIER AIR WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL UTAH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT SOUTHERN UTAH
WILL STILL BE MOIST ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE THE
GFS SHOWING THIS DRYING MAKING IS WAY INTO SOUTHERN UTAH FRIDAY HAVE
LEFT SOME TOKEN POPS IN AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT FULL DRYING WILL
TAKE PLACE.


.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z SATURDAY)...THE NW-SE ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS WILL
START MIGRATING EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE MORE VERTICALLY
SITUATED OVERHEAD AGAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE STARTING TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH WITH A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM...18-20C AT 700MB EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST
WHERE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF UTAH FOR SUNDAY...OPENING THE DOOR TO
EVEN MORE MOISTURE. FURTHERMORE...WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW ALONG THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE COULD ALLOW FOR ENHANCED
SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THIS TIME. THIS WETTER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL YIELD A COOLING TREND THAT...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE A BIT
WARMER THAN NORMAL...WILL BRING A RESPITE FROM THE HOT TEMPERATURES
OF LATE.

THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE RESULTING WESTERLY FLOW WILL
THEN START TO BRING A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL
TAKE A FEW DAYS TO EVACUATE THE MOISTURE SO WENT WITH A SLOW DRYING
TREND AS ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
ABOUT 15-16Z THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN ABOUT 15 AND 20Z TODAY. THESE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE WESTWARD TODAY OVER
NEVADA ALLOWING FOR A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BUT AS THE AIR MASS DRIES THE CHANCE OF
ANY WETTING RAINS AFTER TODAY WILL BE SLIM IF ANY AND ONLY ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS COME
UP OVER MUCH OF THE DISTRICT AND WILL BE AT ITS HIGHEST MINIMUM
DAYTIME LEVELS TODAY...IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS...THEN LOWER
TOWARDS 10 PERCENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO ARIZONA SATURDAY THIS WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS MOISTURE FEED WILL INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 010416
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1016 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE CENTERED OVER UTAH.
AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A 50-110KT ANTICYCLONIC JET
FROM ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE MIDWEST. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z SLC RAOB INDICATE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.50" NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS...TO 1.00"-1.50" ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

RAP INDICATES WEAK WAVE SNUCK INTO THE RIDGE AXIS FROM NEVADA THIS
EVENING...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREK EAST SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN
UTAH OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE REPOSITIONS ITSELF OVER NEVADA. BETWEEN
THIS TRIGGER AND COPIOUS INSTABILITY HAVE INDICATED SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH AND ISOLATED OVER CENTRAL UTAH
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SITS WELL WITH RADAR TRENDS.

OTHERWISE UTILIZED COMBINATION OF PERSISTENCE AND LAMP GUIDANCE FOR
THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT CURVE OVERNIGHT. BUMPED UP SKY GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS EVENING.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN
WILL BEGIN A SLOW EASTWARD SHIFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO HAVE A LITTLE
GREATER AREAL COVERAGE...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY PRODUCING BRIEF
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE WESTERN VALLEYS MAY BECOME INVOLVED WITH THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. THE NAM/GFS HAVE FOR A COUPLE OF MODELS RUNS
GRABBED ON TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN NEVADA WHICH ENDS UP
TRACKING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL UTAH THIS EVENING. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO A REGION OF FAIRLY HIGH CAPE VALUES.
THIS COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND PRIMED AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL
THROUGH NORTHWEST UTAH THIS EVENING. GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR INDICATES
THAT STRONG CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY...THOUGH STRONG MICROBURST STILL
A GOOD BET THIS EVENING.

MODESTLY DRIER AIR /LOWER PWAT VALUES/ WILL WORK INTO THE REGION FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. STILL LOOKING AT TERRAIN-BASED
CONVECTION BOTH DAYS...THOUGH THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE
REDUCED WHEN COMPARED TO THE PRIOR COUPLE OF DAYS.

DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND 100F
ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT.

GFS/EC CONTINUING TO SHOW THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING EAST
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL DRAW
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...BRINGING THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. EARLIER GUIDANCE
INDICATED TROPICAL MOISTURE WOULD STICK AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...MODELS NOW INDICATE MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
FLOW BY MONDAY AS ANOTHER PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH FLATTENS THE
RIDGE. THIS WOULD ALLOW DRIER AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO AT LEAST
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE DRYING TREND
INCREASING THROUGH DAY 7. FOR NOW...HAVE ONLY LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY
BUT CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE TOO WET IF THE TREND IN GUIDANCE
HOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH 05Z THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE BETWEEN 05Z AND 07Z.
WIND SHIFT TO SOUTH EXPECTED BY 07Z ALTHOUGH THIS MAT BE DELAYED BY
AN HOUR OR SO. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING THE TERMINAL THROUGH 09Z WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL EXIST TO SPAWN CONVECTION ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY SPILLING INTO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ONCE THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE FOUR CORNERS MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WILL
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER/PRECIP ALONG WITH MODESTLY COOLER AIR
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
BEGINNING SUNDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/CONGER/TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CONGER
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 010416
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1016 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE CENTERED OVER UTAH.
AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A 50-110KT ANTICYCLONIC JET
FROM ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE MIDWEST. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z SLC RAOB INDICATE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.50" NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS...TO 1.00"-1.50" ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

RAP INDICATES WEAK WAVE SNUCK INTO THE RIDGE AXIS FROM NEVADA THIS
EVENING...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREK EAST SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN
UTAH OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE REPOSITIONS ITSELF OVER NEVADA. BETWEEN
THIS TRIGGER AND COPIOUS INSTABILITY HAVE INDICATED SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH AND ISOLATED OVER CENTRAL UTAH
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SITS WELL WITH RADAR TRENDS.

OTHERWISE UTILIZED COMBINATION OF PERSISTENCE AND LAMP GUIDANCE FOR
THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT CURVE OVERNIGHT. BUMPED UP SKY GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS EVENING.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN
WILL BEGIN A SLOW EASTWARD SHIFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO HAVE A LITTLE
GREATER AREAL COVERAGE...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY PRODUCING BRIEF
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE WESTERN VALLEYS MAY BECOME INVOLVED WITH THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. THE NAM/GFS HAVE FOR A COUPLE OF MODELS RUNS
GRABBED ON TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN NEVADA WHICH ENDS UP
TRACKING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL UTAH THIS EVENING. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO A REGION OF FAIRLY HIGH CAPE VALUES.
THIS COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND PRIMED AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL
THROUGH NORTHWEST UTAH THIS EVENING. GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR INDICATES
THAT STRONG CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY...THOUGH STRONG MICROBURST STILL
A GOOD BET THIS EVENING.

MODESTLY DRIER AIR /LOWER PWAT VALUES/ WILL WORK INTO THE REGION FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. STILL LOOKING AT TERRAIN-BASED
CONVECTION BOTH DAYS...THOUGH THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE
REDUCED WHEN COMPARED TO THE PRIOR COUPLE OF DAYS.

DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND 100F
ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT.

GFS/EC CONTINUING TO SHOW THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING EAST
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL DRAW
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...BRINGING THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. EARLIER GUIDANCE
INDICATED TROPICAL MOISTURE WOULD STICK AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...MODELS NOW INDICATE MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
FLOW BY MONDAY AS ANOTHER PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH FLATTENS THE
RIDGE. THIS WOULD ALLOW DRIER AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO AT LEAST
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE DRYING TREND
INCREASING THROUGH DAY 7. FOR NOW...HAVE ONLY LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY
BUT CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE TOO WET IF THE TREND IN GUIDANCE
HOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH 05Z THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE BETWEEN 05Z AND 07Z.
WIND SHIFT TO SOUTH EXPECTED BY 07Z ALTHOUGH THIS MAT BE DELAYED BY
AN HOUR OR SO. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING THE TERMINAL THROUGH 09Z WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL EXIST TO SPAWN CONVECTION ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY SPILLING INTO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ONCE THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE FOUR CORNERS MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WILL
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER/PRECIP ALONG WITH MODESTLY COOLER AIR
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
BEGINNING SUNDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/CONGER/TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CONGER
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 302135
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
335 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY)...THE UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN A SLOW
EASTWARD SHIFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TERRAIN-BASED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO HAVE A LITTLE GREATER AREAL
COVERAGE...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY PRODUCING BRIEF AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE WESTERN VALLEYS MAY BECOME INVOLVED WITH THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. THE NAM/GFS HAVE FOR A COUPLE OF MODELS
RUNS GRABBED ON TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN NEVADA WHICH ENDS
UP TRACKING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL UTAH THIS EVENING.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO A REGION OF FAIRLY HIGH CAPE
VALUES. THIS COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND PRIMED AIR MASS
SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHWEST UTAH THIS EVENING. GENERALLY WEAK
SHEAR INDICATES THAT STRONG CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY...THOUGH
STRONG MICROBURST STILL A GOOD BET THIS EVENING.

MODESTLY DRIER AIR /LOWER PWAT VALUES/ WILL WORK INTO THE REGION
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. STILL LOOKING AT TERRAIN-BASED
CONVECTION BOTH DAYS...THOUGH THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE
REDUCED WHEN COMPARED TO THE PRIOR COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z SATURDAY)...DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD. THIS
WILL BRING A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND 100F ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE WASATCH
FRONT.

GFS/EC CONTINUING TO SHOW THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING EAST
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL DRAW
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...BRINGING THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. EARLIER GUIDANCE
INDICATED TROPICAL MOISTURE WOULD STICK AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...MODELS NOW INDICATE MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
FLOW BY MONDAY AS ANOTHER PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH FLATTENS THE
RIDGE. THIS WOULD ALLOW DRIER AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO AT LEAST
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE DRYING TREND
INCREASING THROUGH DAY 7. FOR NOW...HAVE ONLY LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY
BUT CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE TOO WET IF THE TREND IN GUIDANCE HOLDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL EXIST TO SPAWN CONVECTION ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY SPILLING INTO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ONCE THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE FOUR CORNERS MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WILL
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER/PRECIP ALONG WITH MODESTLY COOLER AIR
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
BEGINNING SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 0300-0500 UTC.  THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE TERMINAL WILL BE IMPACTED BY OUTFLOW WINDS
FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AREA BETWEEN 0000-0600 UTC.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...CONGER
LONG TERM...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...GRAHAM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 302135
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
335 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY)...THE UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN A SLOW
EASTWARD SHIFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TERRAIN-BASED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO HAVE A LITTLE GREATER AREAL
COVERAGE...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY PRODUCING BRIEF AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE WESTERN VALLEYS MAY BECOME INVOLVED WITH THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. THE NAM/GFS HAVE FOR A COUPLE OF MODELS
RUNS GRABBED ON TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN NEVADA WHICH ENDS
UP TRACKING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL UTAH THIS EVENING.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO A REGION OF FAIRLY HIGH CAPE
VALUES. THIS COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND PRIMED AIR MASS
SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHWEST UTAH THIS EVENING. GENERALLY WEAK
SHEAR INDICATES THAT STRONG CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY...THOUGH
STRONG MICROBURST STILL A GOOD BET THIS EVENING.

MODESTLY DRIER AIR /LOWER PWAT VALUES/ WILL WORK INTO THE REGION
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. STILL LOOKING AT TERRAIN-BASED
CONVECTION BOTH DAYS...THOUGH THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE
REDUCED WHEN COMPARED TO THE PRIOR COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z SATURDAY)...DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD. THIS
WILL BRING A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND 100F ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE WASATCH
FRONT.

GFS/EC CONTINUING TO SHOW THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING EAST
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL DRAW
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...BRINGING THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. EARLIER GUIDANCE
INDICATED TROPICAL MOISTURE WOULD STICK AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...MODELS NOW INDICATE MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
FLOW BY MONDAY AS ANOTHER PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH FLATTENS THE
RIDGE. THIS WOULD ALLOW DRIER AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO AT LEAST
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE DRYING TREND
INCREASING THROUGH DAY 7. FOR NOW...HAVE ONLY LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY
BUT CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE TOO WET IF THE TREND IN GUIDANCE HOLDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL EXIST TO SPAWN CONVECTION ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY SPILLING INTO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ONCE THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE FOUR CORNERS MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WILL
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER/PRECIP ALONG WITH MODESTLY COOLER AIR
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
BEGINNING SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 0300-0500 UTC.  THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE TERMINAL WILL BE IMPACTED BY OUTFLOW WINDS
FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AREA BETWEEN 0000-0600 UTC.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...CONGER
LONG TERM...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...GRAHAM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 302135
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
335 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY)...THE UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN A SLOW
EASTWARD SHIFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TERRAIN-BASED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO HAVE A LITTLE GREATER AREAL
COVERAGE...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY PRODUCING BRIEF AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE WESTERN VALLEYS MAY BECOME INVOLVED WITH THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. THE NAM/GFS HAVE FOR A COUPLE OF MODELS
RUNS GRABBED ON TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN NEVADA WHICH ENDS
UP TRACKING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL UTAH THIS EVENING.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO A REGION OF FAIRLY HIGH CAPE
VALUES. THIS COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND PRIMED AIR MASS
SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHWEST UTAH THIS EVENING. GENERALLY WEAK
SHEAR INDICATES THAT STRONG CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY...THOUGH
STRONG MICROBURST STILL A GOOD BET THIS EVENING.

MODESTLY DRIER AIR /LOWER PWAT VALUES/ WILL WORK INTO THE REGION
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. STILL LOOKING AT TERRAIN-BASED
CONVECTION BOTH DAYS...THOUGH THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE
REDUCED WHEN COMPARED TO THE PRIOR COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z SATURDAY)...DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD. THIS
WILL BRING A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND 100F ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE WASATCH
FRONT.

GFS/EC CONTINUING TO SHOW THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING EAST
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL DRAW
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...BRINGING THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. EARLIER GUIDANCE
INDICATED TROPICAL MOISTURE WOULD STICK AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...MODELS NOW INDICATE MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
FLOW BY MONDAY AS ANOTHER PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH FLATTENS THE
RIDGE. THIS WOULD ALLOW DRIER AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO AT LEAST
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE DRYING TREND
INCREASING THROUGH DAY 7. FOR NOW...HAVE ONLY LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY
BUT CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE TOO WET IF THE TREND IN GUIDANCE HOLDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL EXIST TO SPAWN CONVECTION ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY SPILLING INTO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ONCE THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE FOUR CORNERS MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WILL
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER/PRECIP ALONG WITH MODESTLY COOLER AIR
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
BEGINNING SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 0300-0500 UTC.  THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE TERMINAL WILL BE IMPACTED BY OUTFLOW WINDS
FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AREA BETWEEN 0000-0600 UTC.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...CONGER
LONG TERM...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...GRAHAM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 302135
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
335 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY)...THE UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN A SLOW
EASTWARD SHIFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TERRAIN-BASED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO HAVE A LITTLE GREATER AREAL
COVERAGE...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY PRODUCING BRIEF AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE WESTERN VALLEYS MAY BECOME INVOLVED WITH THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. THE NAM/GFS HAVE FOR A COUPLE OF MODELS
RUNS GRABBED ON TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN NEVADA WHICH ENDS
UP TRACKING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL UTAH THIS EVENING.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO A REGION OF FAIRLY HIGH CAPE
VALUES. THIS COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND PRIMED AIR MASS
SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHWEST UTAH THIS EVENING. GENERALLY WEAK
SHEAR INDICATES THAT STRONG CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY...THOUGH
STRONG MICROBURST STILL A GOOD BET THIS EVENING.

MODESTLY DRIER AIR /LOWER PWAT VALUES/ WILL WORK INTO THE REGION
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. STILL LOOKING AT TERRAIN-BASED
CONVECTION BOTH DAYS...THOUGH THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE
REDUCED WHEN COMPARED TO THE PRIOR COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z SATURDAY)...DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD. THIS
WILL BRING A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND 100F ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE WASATCH
FRONT.

GFS/EC CONTINUING TO SHOW THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING EAST
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL DRAW
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...BRINGING THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. EARLIER GUIDANCE
INDICATED TROPICAL MOISTURE WOULD STICK AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...MODELS NOW INDICATE MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
FLOW BY MONDAY AS ANOTHER PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH FLATTENS THE
RIDGE. THIS WOULD ALLOW DRIER AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO AT LEAST
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE DRYING TREND
INCREASING THROUGH DAY 7. FOR NOW...HAVE ONLY LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY
BUT CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE TOO WET IF THE TREND IN GUIDANCE HOLDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL EXIST TO SPAWN CONVECTION ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY SPILLING INTO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ONCE THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE FOUR CORNERS MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WILL
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER/PRECIP ALONG WITH MODESTLY COOLER AIR
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
BEGINNING SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 0300-0500 UTC.  THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE TERMINAL WILL BE IMPACTED BY OUTFLOW WINDS
FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AREA BETWEEN 0000-0600 UTC.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...CONGER
LONG TERM...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...GRAHAM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 302135
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
335 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY)...THE UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN A SLOW
EASTWARD SHIFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TERRAIN-BASED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO HAVE A LITTLE GREATER AREAL
COVERAGE...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY PRODUCING BRIEF AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE WESTERN VALLEYS MAY BECOME INVOLVED WITH THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. THE NAM/GFS HAVE FOR A COUPLE OF MODELS
RUNS GRABBED ON TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN NEVADA WHICH ENDS
UP TRACKING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL UTAH THIS EVENING.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO A REGION OF FAIRLY HIGH CAPE
VALUES. THIS COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND PRIMED AIR MASS
SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHWEST UTAH THIS EVENING. GENERALLY WEAK
SHEAR INDICATES THAT STRONG CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY...THOUGH
STRONG MICROBURST STILL A GOOD BET THIS EVENING.

MODESTLY DRIER AIR /LOWER PWAT VALUES/ WILL WORK INTO THE REGION
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. STILL LOOKING AT TERRAIN-BASED
CONVECTION BOTH DAYS...THOUGH THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE
REDUCED WHEN COMPARED TO THE PRIOR COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z SATURDAY)...DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD. THIS
WILL BRING A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND 100F ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE WASATCH
FRONT.

GFS/EC CONTINUING TO SHOW THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING EAST
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL DRAW
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...BRINGING THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. EARLIER GUIDANCE
INDICATED TROPICAL MOISTURE WOULD STICK AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...MODELS NOW INDICATE MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
FLOW BY MONDAY AS ANOTHER PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH FLATTENS THE
RIDGE. THIS WOULD ALLOW DRIER AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO AT LEAST
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE DRYING TREND
INCREASING THROUGH DAY 7. FOR NOW...HAVE ONLY LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY
BUT CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE TOO WET IF THE TREND IN GUIDANCE HOLDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL EXIST TO SPAWN CONVECTION ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY SPILLING INTO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ONCE THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE FOUR CORNERS MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WILL
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER/PRECIP ALONG WITH MODESTLY COOLER AIR
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
BEGINNING SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 0300-0500 UTC.  THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE TERMINAL WILL BE IMPACTED BY OUTFLOW WINDS
FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AREA BETWEEN 0000-0600 UTC.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...CONGER
LONG TERM...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...GRAHAM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 302135
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
335 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY)...THE UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN A SLOW
EASTWARD SHIFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TERRAIN-BASED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO HAVE A LITTLE GREATER AREAL
COVERAGE...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY PRODUCING BRIEF AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE WESTERN VALLEYS MAY BECOME INVOLVED WITH THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. THE NAM/GFS HAVE FOR A COUPLE OF MODELS
RUNS GRABBED ON TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN NEVADA WHICH ENDS
UP TRACKING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL UTAH THIS EVENING.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO A REGION OF FAIRLY HIGH CAPE
VALUES. THIS COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND PRIMED AIR MASS
SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHWEST UTAH THIS EVENING. GENERALLY WEAK
SHEAR INDICATES THAT STRONG CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY...THOUGH
STRONG MICROBURST STILL A GOOD BET THIS EVENING.

MODESTLY DRIER AIR /LOWER PWAT VALUES/ WILL WORK INTO THE REGION
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. STILL LOOKING AT TERRAIN-BASED
CONVECTION BOTH DAYS...THOUGH THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE
REDUCED WHEN COMPARED TO THE PRIOR COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z SATURDAY)...DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD. THIS
WILL BRING A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND 100F ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE WASATCH
FRONT.

GFS/EC CONTINUING TO SHOW THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING EAST
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL DRAW
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...BRINGING THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. EARLIER GUIDANCE
INDICATED TROPICAL MOISTURE WOULD STICK AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...MODELS NOW INDICATE MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
FLOW BY MONDAY AS ANOTHER PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH FLATTENS THE
RIDGE. THIS WOULD ALLOW DRIER AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO AT LEAST
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE DRYING TREND
INCREASING THROUGH DAY 7. FOR NOW...HAVE ONLY LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY
BUT CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE TOO WET IF THE TREND IN GUIDANCE HOLDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL EXIST TO SPAWN CONVECTION ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY SPILLING INTO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ONCE THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE FOUR CORNERS MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WILL
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER/PRECIP ALONG WITH MODESTLY COOLER AIR
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
BEGINNING SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 0300-0500 UTC.  THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE TERMINAL WILL BE IMPACTED BY OUTFLOW WINDS
FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AREA BETWEEN 0000-0600 UTC.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...CONGER
LONG TERM...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...GRAHAM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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