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000
FXUS65 KSLC 250408
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1008 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING UTAH WILL GENERATE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT USHERING IN A COLDER AIRMASS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER CO THIS EVE AND
A DEEP CLOSED LOW IS SPINNING OFF THE WEST COAST. UT IS UNDER A
WARM DRY SWLY FLOW IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
MILD TEMPS. THE LOCAL BREEZY AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS ARE
DIMINISHING BUT COULD PERSIST IN A FEW SPOTS OVERNIGHT. NEAR
RECORD HIGHS WERE NOTED TODAY WITH A FEW SITES REPORTING RECORD
READINGS.

THE OFFSHORE LOW STARTS MOVING INLAND TOMORROW WITH LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND INCREASING SWLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. THE SURFACE
GRADIENT ALSO TIGHTENS UP AND EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
CWA FROM ABOUT LATE MORNING THRU LATE EVENING. CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK AND NEW 00Z NAM WOULD SUPPORT EXPANDING
IT INTO THE SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS. THIS WOULD PROBABLY BE
WARRANTED IF REMAINING 00Z GUIDANCE SUPPORTS IT AS WELL.

THE AIRMASS COOLS A LITTLE WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS TOMORROW AND
SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS OUT AHEAD OF THE EPAC LOW MOVING OVER THE CWA
IN THE AFTN. ALL THIS POINTS TO A POTENTIAL FOR MAX TEMPS TOMORROW
TO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIRMASS IN
PLACE AND THE INCREASING SLY FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM GETTING VERY CHILLY AND A WARMER START SHOULD BRING
MAXES UP TO AT LEAST EQUAL TODAYS.

THIS NEW NAM IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED WITH THE PAC TROF ONCE IT MOVES
INLAND AS EARLIER RUNS AND OTHER GUIDANCE...NOW KEEPING THE 500
MB COLD AIR OFF TO OUR NORTH AND NOT AS COLD AT 700 MB EITHER. IT
ALSO IS DRIER THAN PREV AND OTHER GUIDANCE WITH BARELY ANY PRECIP
AT ALL FOR THE CWA EITHER WITH THE INITIAL WEAK FRONT BEFORE DAWN
SUNDAY OR THE SECONDARY PUSH SUN EVE. POST FRONTAL WINDS ARE ALSO
NOT AS STRONG. SO IF OTHER GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION
WE WILL NEED TO LOWER POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS EVENT.

FOR NOW NO SHORT TERM UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY MORNING BECOMING GUSTY AFTER ABOUT 15Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR UTZ005-015-016.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY/KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 250408
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1008 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING UTAH WILL GENERATE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT USHERING IN A COLDER AIRMASS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER CO THIS EVE AND
A DEEP CLOSED LOW IS SPINNING OFF THE WEST COAST. UT IS UNDER A
WARM DRY SWLY FLOW IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
MILD TEMPS. THE LOCAL BREEZY AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS ARE
DIMINISHING BUT COULD PERSIST IN A FEW SPOTS OVERNIGHT. NEAR
RECORD HIGHS WERE NOTED TODAY WITH A FEW SITES REPORTING RECORD
READINGS.

THE OFFSHORE LOW STARTS MOVING INLAND TOMORROW WITH LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND INCREASING SWLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. THE SURFACE
GRADIENT ALSO TIGHTENS UP AND EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
CWA FROM ABOUT LATE MORNING THRU LATE EVENING. CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK AND NEW 00Z NAM WOULD SUPPORT EXPANDING
IT INTO THE SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS. THIS WOULD PROBABLY BE
WARRANTED IF REMAINING 00Z GUIDANCE SUPPORTS IT AS WELL.

THE AIRMASS COOLS A LITTLE WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS TOMORROW AND
SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS OUT AHEAD OF THE EPAC LOW MOVING OVER THE CWA
IN THE AFTN. ALL THIS POINTS TO A POTENTIAL FOR MAX TEMPS TOMORROW
TO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIRMASS IN
PLACE AND THE INCREASING SLY FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM GETTING VERY CHILLY AND A WARMER START SHOULD BRING
MAXES UP TO AT LEAST EQUAL TODAYS.

THIS NEW NAM IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED WITH THE PAC TROF ONCE IT MOVES
INLAND AS EARLIER RUNS AND OTHER GUIDANCE...NOW KEEPING THE 500
MB COLD AIR OFF TO OUR NORTH AND NOT AS COLD AT 700 MB EITHER. IT
ALSO IS DRIER THAN PREV AND OTHER GUIDANCE WITH BARELY ANY PRECIP
AT ALL FOR THE CWA EITHER WITH THE INITIAL WEAK FRONT BEFORE DAWN
SUNDAY OR THE SECONDARY PUSH SUN EVE. POST FRONTAL WINDS ARE ALSO
NOT AS STRONG. SO IF OTHER GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION
WE WILL NEED TO LOWER POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS EVENT.

FOR NOW NO SHORT TERM UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY MORNING BECOMING GUSTY AFTER ABOUT 15Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR UTZ005-015-016.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY/KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 242223
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
423 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING UTAH WILL GENERATE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE STATE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH AREAS OF VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR FAR NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z TUESDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE PLAINS STATES BY
SATURDAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH CURRENTLY POSITIONED JUST WEST
OF 130W WILL REACH THE WEST COAST SATURDAY MORNING...THEN TRACK
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
OVER THE WEEKEND.

WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY ISSUE WITH THIS APPROACHING TROUGH.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEVADA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH FAIRLY STRONG SUPPORTING NEAR 700MB WINDS OVER UTAH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GOOD MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE
FAVORABLE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL GENERATE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE ISSUED
A WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN VALLEYS FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO
THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SERVE TO TIGHTEN THE SURFACE GRADIENT...WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST DESERTS AND
IN THE DOWNSLOPE WIND AREAS OF THE WESTERN UINTA BASIN AND THE SAN
RAFAEL SWELL IN EAST-CENTRAL UTAH.

GLOBAL MODELS THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER
NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD AIR.
THE FIRST THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL COME FROM A SHORTWAVE EJECTING
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL
SERVE TO PUSH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST UTAH DURING
THE NIGHT. WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH SOME
INSTABILITY FROM THE POCKET OF COOLER MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD FORM
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER.

THE BEST CHANCE AT PRECIP WILL COME SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN. STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING IN
THE SOUTH END OF THE TROUGH SHOULD SPAWN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO GENERATE
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY...THOUGH AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT. THE FAR NORTHERN VALLEYS COULD SEE
SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH ANY RAIN IN THE MORE INTENSE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS.

INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAPID MID-LEVEL WARMING ON MONDAY
SHOULD BRING A QUICK END TO MOST OF THE REMAINING SHOWERS BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COLD TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL CONTINUE OR EVEN COOL FURTHER ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...AFTER THE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO PERHAPS THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON THUS
FAR IN MANY OF UTAHS VALLEYS AND BASINS. WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...BUT
WARMING WILL LIKELY BE A SLOW PROCESS IN THE VALLEYS.

LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
BRUSH THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH.
HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH MID-
WEEK...WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN LINGERING
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND SHIFT OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...HELPING RETURN THE AREA TO WARMER THAN SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE WARMING
COULD BE ENHANCED EVEN MORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE A BIT EAST OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH OVER
THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH BACK TO
THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 22Z AND 23Z...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
SOUTHERLIES PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A PREVAILING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 02Z
AND 03Z. VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR UTZ005-015-016.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 241529
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
929 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL
BECOME STRONGER ON SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS UTAH
ON SUNDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST TODAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...AS
THE LARGE BAND OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAS PUSHED NORTH OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL LEAD TO YET ANOTHER WARMER THAN AVERAGE
DAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN MANY LOCATIONS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE TOMORROW AS A PACIFIC
TROUGH MARCHES TOWARD THE REGION. WILL TAKE A CLOSE LOOK AT WINDS
TODAY TO DETERMINE IF A WIND ADVISORY IS WARRANTED FOR
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS OF UTAH.

THE COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK...THOUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT HAS BEEN TRENDING NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST 24-48
HOURS. CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA COULD GET A LITTLE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT MODELS NO LONGER INDICATE LINGERING SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
STAYS NORTH OF THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER. A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE IS STILL IN THE CARDS...BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY
SEE A CONTINUATION OF THE DRY OCTOBER.

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS FINE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR
THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY WEATHER-WISE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
IS THE SURFACE WIND FORECAST. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR
WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z...BUT THIS
SWITCH WOULD LIKELY OCCUR AFTER 21Z IF SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
AND BECOME GUSTY IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 240846
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
246 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL BECOME
STRONGER ON SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS UTAH ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE NEXT
TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND
OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A WESTERLY 140-170KT JET OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.25" MOUNTAINS...TO 0.50" MOST VALLEYS.

700MB TEMPERATURES HOVER BETWEEN +8C AND +10C THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO COOL SIGNIFICANTLY. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT STRENGTHENS TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...PRESSURE FALLS AND
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT MUCH
BETTER MIXING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
VALLEYS AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN (GIVEN 500MB FLOW INCREASING TO
40KTS). THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AND ARE ENHANCED
BY INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FALLING HEIGHTS/PRESSURE. EXPECT
WIND GUSTS TO APPROACH OR EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

WENT ABOVE BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
WESTERN VALLEYS AND HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN MINIMIZED DECOUPLING
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT DESPITE A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW...INSTABILITY BEGINS TO INCREASE SATURDAY. INDICATED A FEW
BUILDUPS IN THE SKY GRIDS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FORECAST HIGHS ARE
JUST SHY OF A RECORD FOR SALT LAKE CITY DUE TO THE WARM
START...THOUGH THE THERMAL RIDGE BEGINS TO RETREAT TOWARD THE EAST
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO NORTHWEST UTAH SATURDAY
NIGHT...CROSSING THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE SOME PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE WITH BRUNT OF INSTABILITY LATER SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS DROP TO ABOUT 7500FT...THOUGH WITH MUCH OF THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA...NOT ANTICIPATING A LARGE AMOUNT
OF QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM.

WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE PRIMARY ITEMS OF INTEREST WITH
THIS STORM. ALREADY TALKED ABOUT PRE-FRONTAL WINDS...WHICH INCREASE
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST UTAH SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE COLD ADVECTION
IS NOT GREAT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND SOUTHWEST UTAH INTO
MONDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ENOUGH TO PROMOTE GUSTY
DOWNSLOPE/CANYON WINDS ACROSS THESE AREAS POST FRONTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z MONDAY)...
THE TROUGH THAT IMPACTED THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED IN THOSE FLOW WILL BRING THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS TO
MAINLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT ONE OF THE COLDEST MORNINGS OF THE FALL SEASON SO FAR TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW THE HARD FREEZE THRESHOLD
OF 28F FOR MANY LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA BRINGING A WARMING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 14-16Z THIS MORNING AT THE SLC TERMINAL. WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY UNTIL SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN
19-21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...QUITE WARM LATE WEEK WITH LOW HUMIDITY. THE NEXT WET
COLD FRONT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW.
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY...WITH THE SNOW
LEVEL DROPPING TO ABOUT 7500 FT. MUCH COOLER AND MORE HUMID HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...ROGOWSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 240341
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
941 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL BECOME
STRONGER ON SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS UTAH ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AXIS OF THE HIGH OVER THE REGION IS ALONG THE
ERN UT BORDER WITH A MILD SWLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. CONSIDERABLE
HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN STREAMING THROUGH THE STATE WITH THE
THICKEST CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
RISING HEIGHTS AND BACKING FLOW WILL SHUNT THE JETSTREAM AND
ASSOCIATED CIRRUS PLUME OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA BY TOMORROW
MORNING WITH A SUNNY WARM DAY EXPECTED.

SOUTH WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER TOMORROW AND SHOULD PROVIDE
GOOD MIXING ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE SEVERAL DEGREES FROM TODAY.

THE LARGE TROF IN THE ERN PAC STARTS TO NOSE INLAND SAT AND THE
INCREASING FLOW ALOFT PLUS A TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT SHOULD
BOOST WINDS CONSIDERABLY. TEMPS WILL STAY WARM AND MAY EVEN RISE
A LITTLE FROM FRIDAY IN THE SALT LAKE AREA.

THE NEW 00Z NAM HAS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING IN TWO PARTS WITH AN
INITIAL PUSH BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY AND THE MAIN COLD PUSH SUNDAY
AFTN. IT GENERATES SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH WITH BOTH
BOUNDARIES BUT IT IS NOT GENEROUS WITH THE QPF. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG PRE AND
POST FRONTAL WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPS...WITH JUST A
FEW POCKETS OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN THE NRN MTNS.

UPDATED EARLIER TO INCREASE SKY COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AND TO DECREASE IT AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH BY
LATE MORNING FRIDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 240341
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
941 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL BECOME
STRONGER ON SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS UTAH ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AXIS OF THE HIGH OVER THE REGION IS ALONG THE
ERN UT BORDER WITH A MILD SWLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. CONSIDERABLE
HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN STREAMING THROUGH THE STATE WITH THE
THICKEST CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
RISING HEIGHTS AND BACKING FLOW WILL SHUNT THE JETSTREAM AND
ASSOCIATED CIRRUS PLUME OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA BY TOMORROW
MORNING WITH A SUNNY WARM DAY EXPECTED.

SOUTH WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER TOMORROW AND SHOULD PROVIDE
GOOD MIXING ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE SEVERAL DEGREES FROM TODAY.

THE LARGE TROF IN THE ERN PAC STARTS TO NOSE INLAND SAT AND THE
INCREASING FLOW ALOFT PLUS A TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT SHOULD
BOOST WINDS CONSIDERABLY. TEMPS WILL STAY WARM AND MAY EVEN RISE
A LITTLE FROM FRIDAY IN THE SALT LAKE AREA.

THE NEW 00Z NAM HAS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING IN TWO PARTS WITH AN
INITIAL PUSH BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY AND THE MAIN COLD PUSH SUNDAY
AFTN. IT GENERATES SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH WITH BOTH
BOUNDARIES BUT IT IS NOT GENEROUS WITH THE QPF. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG PRE AND
POST FRONTAL WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPS...WITH JUST A
FEW POCKETS OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN THE NRN MTNS.

UPDATED EARLIER TO INCREASE SKY COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AND TO DECREASE IT AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH BY
LATE MORNING FRIDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

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HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 232204
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
404 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING TO THE EAST OF UTAH WILL
BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL GENERATE WINDY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES STATEWIDE LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING
NORTHWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL GENERATE
A WARMING TREND THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MAIN SHORT TERM
CONCERNS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
RECORD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS SATURDAY.

THE VORTICITY LOBE CURRENTLY ROTATING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLANK
OF THE VORTEX OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL REACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST EARLY SATURDAY. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL WORK EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AS IT CROSSES NEVADA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS ADVANCING SURFACE FRONT COMBINED WITH GOOD MIXING
IN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE BASIN SHOULD CREATE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND RECORD LEVELS.

CONVECTIVE PRECIP NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT AS THE DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY WILL LAG BACK WITH THE COLD
AIR ALOFT OVER WESTERN IDAHO/NORTHWEST NEVADA. THE FIRST THREAT OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE ROTATING NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DRAG ENOUGH
COLD AIR IN AT THE MID-LEVELS TO SUPPORT DEEP INSTABILITY AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z SUNDAY)...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
RIGHT ON THE DOORSTEP OF UTAH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH TIMING
DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF IS
STILL ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARY AND ONSET OF PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE CWA...WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...COMPARED
TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE GFS. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AS MODELS ARE PRODUCING AT LEAST SOME
PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH NOT WITH
PARTICULARLY HIGH QPF VALUES.

HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
POST-FRONTALLY...AS THERE LOOKS TO BE A GOOD MSLP GRADIENT AND
DECENT WINDS ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT. ONE OF THE LARGER UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST IS HOW LONG SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS A SECOND PIECE OF THE TROUGH MOVES
OVER THE AREA. IT IS WITH THIS WAVE THAT 700MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO
-8 CELSIUS IN THE NORTH...BUT IT IS LESS CERTAIN WHETHER THE 500MB
COLD POOL WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...OR REMAIN NORTH OVER IDAHO AND
WYOMING. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT A 20 PERCENT POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
LINGERING SHOWERS.

THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EXIT THE REGION THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF
MONDAY...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING FOR MONDAY NIGHT. ONE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE 12Z GFS IS THAT IT NOW CLEARS THE
SKIES MONDAY NIGHT...AS OPPOSED TO BRINGING IN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER IN THE ZONAL FLOW AS IT DID YESTERDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
COLDER NIGHT IN THE VALLEYS AND BASINS OF UTAH...AS THAT COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR REMAINS BEHIND IN THE LOWEST LEVELS.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING IN THE
FORECAST...AND THERE IS A CHANCE THESE STILL ARE NOT COLD
ENOUGH...AS THE GUIDANCE HAS YET TO SEE A GOOD COLD FRONT LIKE THIS
ONE SO FAR THIS SEASON.

FOR TUESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST...PUTTING THE CWA IN A COOL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM IS THE LOCATION OF THE NORTHERN STORM TRACK.
THE EC KEEPS IT SOMEWHAT FURTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA...WHILE THE GFS DRAGS SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY DOWN TO FAR
NORTHERN UTAH...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER.
HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE CACHE VALLEY ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT. EITHER
WAY...BOTH GLOBAL MODELS SHIFT THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO DRYING AND WARMING CONDITIONS
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE SWITCH
OCCURS AS EARLY AS 01Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT
UNDER CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 231627
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1027 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES STATEWIDE WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST WILL
RESULT IN WARM/DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS UTAH THROUGH SATURDAY.
MAJOR CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE
EJECTING OUT OF THE COLD CORE VORTEX OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT ADVANCES ON THE WEST COAST SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. A
PERSISTENT COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY NORTHERN UTAH INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE THERMAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
TODAY. THIS FEATURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO UTAH...THOUGH
THE TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT TO OUR NORTH SHOULD HELP INCREASE
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE STATE TODAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
HIGHER TODAY...THOUGH GOOD MIXING IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE UPWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.
SATURDAY DOES LOOK TO BE QUITE WINDY AS THE SURFACE FRONT OVER
NEVADA BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS SUPPORTED BY STRONG LOW-
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS UTAH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE QUITE
WARM...BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SOME CLOUDS
MAY WORK IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH WITH ELEVATED MORNING LOWS
AND STILL DECENT MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON THE POSSIBILITY OF
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN UTAH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN OVER ALL BUT THE
EXTREME SOUTH SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE CORE OF THE COLD UPPER
TROUGH ON SUNDAY/MONDAY. THE LATEST VERSIONS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM...
THOUGH THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE COLDEST AIR AS FAR SOUTH AS
DOES THE GFS.

A PERSISTENT CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND
MOIST SHOULD MAINTAIN SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
UTAH INTO MONDAY EVENING. ADJACENT VALLEY AREAS WILL ALSO SEE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIP...WITH THE PRECIP TYPE BOUNCING BETWEEN
RAIN AND SNOW DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP. SOME
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE BENCH AREAS
IN THIS EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO
THE NORTHWEST AROUND 20-21Z TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
SOUTHERLIES PERSIST THROUGH 22Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...WITH ANY CEILINGS REMAINING WELL ABOVE 7000FT THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CONGER
AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
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