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000
FXUS65 KSLC 202211
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
411 PM MDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE GREAT
BASIN ON TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND TUESDAY...THEN TURN NORTH AND
IMPACTS MUCH OF SOUTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN UTAH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY)...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER
THE WEST COAST STATES WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN
OVERNIGHT...THEN SETTLE INTO UTAH ON TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL MOVE INLAND EARLY TUESDAY...THEN TURN NORTH INTO
EXTREME SOUTHERN NEVADA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS UPPER
LOW WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN UTAH
MIDWEEK.

CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP[ED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN UTAH. THIS CONVECTION
LACKING ANY IDENTIFIABLE DYNAMIC FEATURE TO SUPPORT DEEP LIFT
PRODUCED AT BEST ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
SHOULD END QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. IN GENERAL LOOKING AT A SIMILAR DAY TUESDAY AS TODAY. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
ZONES AS SOME MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER LOW WORKS
NORTH THROUGH THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP CONVECTION
STILL UNLIKELY AS THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT REMAINS REMOVED
FROM THE STATE.

THE CONTINUED NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE UPPER
LOW POSITIONED OVER FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA SHOULD PRODUCE AN
INCREASING TREND IN CONVECTION FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE KEY TO LOCATING ORGANIZED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE TO DETERMINE WHERE THE DEFORMATION ZONE ALONG THE NORTH
THROUGH NORTHEAST FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW SETS UP. EARLY WEDNESDAY
THE GFS/ECMWF PLACES THIS FEATURE OVER CENTRAL UTAH...THEN
ADVANCES IT NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN UTAH LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE BOOSTED POPS/QPFS A BIT NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY...THOUGH NOT LOOKING FOR STRONG CONVECTION OR HEAVY RAIN
AT THIS TIME.

A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL GRAZEFAR
NORTHERN UTAH THURSDAY. MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE EARLIER
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FUEL ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH. THE WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT AND WEAK SHEAR NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE STRONG CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z FRIDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS ARE FINALLY STARTING
TO CONVERGE ON A SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT SOLUTION...THOUGH SUBTLE TO
NOT SO SUBTLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN. TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...A SHORTWAVE WILL BE CROSSING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AREA.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH TO CONTINUE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO
LATE THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

YET ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL PROGRESS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUMPED UP POPS AS
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN/DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS A
RELATIVE LARGE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AS TO THE EXACT PATH OF THIS
TROUGH AFTER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...EXPECT THE THREAT OF
CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT COVERAGE
IS LESS CERTAIN THAN EARLIER PERIODS.

BY LATE SATURDAY...THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST BY A RELATIVELY LARGE
SEGMENT OF THE GUIDANCE TO FINALLY EJECT EASTWARD...WITH RIDGING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE EVENING...SWITCHING TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03-05Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 201630
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1030 AM MDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST STATES
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY TUESDAY. THE CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING RIDGE WILL USHER A COUPLE OF
WEAK VORTICITY LOBES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.

ONE LOBE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN UTAH AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE
GENERATING LITTLE MORE THAN A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE GOES LIFTED INDEX IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS
THE LI VALUES NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF UTAH.
THIS MODEST INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT COULD
GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

NORTH OF THIS FIRST VORTICITY LOBE ENOUGH MOISTURE EXISTS FOR
AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. DYNAMIC
LIFT LOOKS TO BE EITHER WEAK OR ABSENT THIS AFTERNOON...SO ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF AND LIGHT.

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND
THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY MORNING...THEN TURN NORTH
INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN NEVADA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN SOME MOISTURE NORTH...WITH THE FIRST NOTABLE
INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
UTAH THEN ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN UTAH ON THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCE
AT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING NORTH FROM THE PARENT
LOW AND UNDERNEATH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MINIMAL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 17-
19Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CONGER
AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 201630
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1030 AM MDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST STATES
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY TUESDAY. THE CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING RIDGE WILL USHER A COUPLE OF
WEAK VORTICITY LOBES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.

ONE LOBE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN UTAH AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE
GENERATING LITTLE MORE THAN A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE GOES LIFTED INDEX IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS
THE LI VALUES NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF UTAH.
THIS MODEST INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT COULD
GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

NORTH OF THIS FIRST VORTICITY LOBE ENOUGH MOISTURE EXISTS FOR
AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. DYNAMIC
LIFT LOOKS TO BE EITHER WEAK OR ABSENT THIS AFTERNOON...SO ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF AND LIGHT.

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND
THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY MORNING...THEN TURN NORTH
INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN NEVADA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN SOME MOISTURE NORTH...WITH THE FIRST NOTABLE
INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
UTAH THEN ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN UTAH ON THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCE
AT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING NORTH FROM THE PARENT
LOW AND UNDERNEATH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MINIMAL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 17-
19Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CONGER
AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 201630
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1030 AM MDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST STATES
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY TUESDAY. THE CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING RIDGE WILL USHER A COUPLE OF
WEAK VORTICITY LOBES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.

ONE LOBE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN UTAH AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE
GENERATING LITTLE MORE THAN A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE GOES LIFTED INDEX IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS
THE LI VALUES NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF UTAH.
THIS MODEST INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT COULD
GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

NORTH OF THIS FIRST VORTICITY LOBE ENOUGH MOISTURE EXISTS FOR
AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. DYNAMIC
LIFT LOOKS TO BE EITHER WEAK OR ABSENT THIS AFTERNOON...SO ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF AND LIGHT.

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND
THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY MORNING...THEN TURN NORTH
INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN NEVADA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN SOME MOISTURE NORTH...WITH THE FIRST NOTABLE
INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
UTAH THEN ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN UTAH ON THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCE
AT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING NORTH FROM THE PARENT
LOW AND UNDERNEATH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MINIMAL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 17-
19Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CONGER
AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 201630
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1030 AM MDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST STATES
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY TUESDAY. THE CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING RIDGE WILL USHER A COUPLE OF
WEAK VORTICITY LOBES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.

ONE LOBE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN UTAH AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE
GENERATING LITTLE MORE THAN A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE GOES LIFTED INDEX IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS
THE LI VALUES NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF UTAH.
THIS MODEST INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT COULD
GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

NORTH OF THIS FIRST VORTICITY LOBE ENOUGH MOISTURE EXISTS FOR
AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. DYNAMIC
LIFT LOOKS TO BE EITHER WEAK OR ABSENT THIS AFTERNOON...SO ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF AND LIGHT.

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND
THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY MORNING...THEN TURN NORTH
INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN NEVADA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN SOME MOISTURE NORTH...WITH THE FIRST NOTABLE
INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
UTAH THEN ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN UTAH ON THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCE
AT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING NORTH FROM THE PARENT
LOW AND UNDERNEATH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MINIMAL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 17-
19Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CONGER
AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 201630
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1030 AM MDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST STATES
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY TUESDAY. THE CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING RIDGE WILL USHER A COUPLE OF
WEAK VORTICITY LOBES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.

ONE LOBE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN UTAH AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE
GENERATING LITTLE MORE THAN A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE GOES LIFTED INDEX IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS
THE LI VALUES NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF UTAH.
THIS MODEST INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT COULD
GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

NORTH OF THIS FIRST VORTICITY LOBE ENOUGH MOISTURE EXISTS FOR
AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. DYNAMIC
LIFT LOOKS TO BE EITHER WEAK OR ABSENT THIS AFTERNOON...SO ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF AND LIGHT.

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND
THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY MORNING...THEN TURN NORTH
INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN NEVADA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN SOME MOISTURE NORTH...WITH THE FIRST NOTABLE
INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
UTAH THEN ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN UTAH ON THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCE
AT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING NORTH FROM THE PARENT
LOW AND UNDERNEATH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MINIMAL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 17-
19Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CONGER
AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 201046
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
446 AM MDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY)...NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS CURRENTLY SEEN DIVING INTO EAST-CENTRAL
UTAH. OVERNIGHT RADAR IMAGERY...AT LEAST WHAT WAS PRODUCED BY KICX
BEFORE IT WENT DOWN DUE TO EQUIPMENT ISSUES...INDICATED SOME WEAK
RETURNS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL UTAH. THESE
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE INDUCED IN PART BY SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF SAID DISTURBANCE BUT ARE LIKELY PRODUCING LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
AREA NEAR SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEARER IN THE
MORE STABLE AIRMASS BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER WEAK
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WAVE COUPLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED TERRAIN-BASED
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE...A SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TODAY ALLOWING FOR A SMALL BUMP
IN AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TOMORROW AND
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED WARMING TREND. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL
INDICATE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE TO GENERATE CONVECTION...BUT WITH
ADDITIONAL FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FROM A CLOSED LOW THAT IS
PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW IS
PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND WEAKEN...WITH THE REMNANTS LIFTING ACROSS
UTAH WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AND LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER CLOSED LOW THAT MODELS INDICATE WILL HAVE SPLIT FROM A
TROUGH CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PROGGED TO ROTATE INTO THE
AREA AND TRACK EAST ACROSS ARIZONA ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
COOLING TREND AS MODELS PUSH A SHALLOW BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN UTAH
FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE...AND WITH INCREASED MOISTURE DRAWN IN
FROM THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD...BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE 8000-9000FT.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z FRIDAY)...AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ON TAP DURING THE FRI-SAT PERIODS. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN HANDLING OF TWO TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE
MEAN LONG WAVE DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE FIRST CARVING SUBTLY THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY AND THE LATTER APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODEL TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES ARE MOST
NOTABLE REGARDING THE LATTER TROUGH AS THE 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN
MAINTAIN A DEEPER CLOSED UPPER LOW TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST IN WAKE OF
THE FIRST TROUGHS DEPARTURE...WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS STRONG
SPLITTING ALONG THE PACNW COAST WITH SOUTHERN SPLIT TRACKING
SOUTHEAST DOWN THE CALI COAST. GEFS SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
SCENARIOS. THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE...LEANED A BIT TOWARDS
THE EC/CANADIAN TRENDS DUE TO SOME SEMBLANCE OF CONSISTENCY MODEL TO
MODEL...AND FEEL THIS SCENARIO IS QUITE REASONABLE DUE TO THE HEIGHT
WEAKNESS ALREADY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN FROM THE
EARLIER TROUGH. ONLY NOTABLE CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO THE FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIODS TRENDING THINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
WETTER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

THEREAFTER MODELS EXHIBIT LESS SPREAD DEPICTING LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN SUN-MON AS THE MEAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH REBUILDS ACROSS THE PACNW REGION. MAINTAINED A WARMING/DRYING
TREND LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SUCH.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MINIMAL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-
19Z PER NORM...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY AT THE SURFACE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS BENEATH A RELATIVELY DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
ISOLATED BUILDUPS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW ALONG THE MOUNTAIN SPINES EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS NORTHEAST INTO THE UINTA MOUNTAINS. MINIMAL IF ANY PRECIP
IS EXPECTED FROM THIS DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE DRY LOW LEVELS. PRIMARY
FIRE WEATHER IMPACT FROM ONE OF THESE ROGUE CELLS WOULD BE AN
ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR BRIEFLY STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. A
SERIES OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MID WEEK
INTO PORTIONS OF THIS WEEKEND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS. WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE RISE LATE WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEKEND AS SUCH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 201046
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
446 AM MDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY)...NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS CURRENTLY SEEN DIVING INTO EAST-CENTRAL
UTAH. OVERNIGHT RADAR IMAGERY...AT LEAST WHAT WAS PRODUCED BY KICX
BEFORE IT WENT DOWN DUE TO EQUIPMENT ISSUES...INDICATED SOME WEAK
RETURNS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL UTAH. THESE
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE INDUCED IN PART BY SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF SAID DISTURBANCE BUT ARE LIKELY PRODUCING LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
AREA NEAR SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEARER IN THE
MORE STABLE AIRMASS BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER WEAK
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WAVE COUPLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED TERRAIN-BASED
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE...A SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TODAY ALLOWING FOR A SMALL BUMP
IN AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TOMORROW AND
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED WARMING TREND. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL
INDICATE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE TO GENERATE CONVECTION...BUT WITH
ADDITIONAL FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FROM A CLOSED LOW THAT IS
PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW IS
PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND WEAKEN...WITH THE REMNANTS LIFTING ACROSS
UTAH WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AND LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER CLOSED LOW THAT MODELS INDICATE WILL HAVE SPLIT FROM A
TROUGH CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PROGGED TO ROTATE INTO THE
AREA AND TRACK EAST ACROSS ARIZONA ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
COOLING TREND AS MODELS PUSH A SHALLOW BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN UTAH
FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE...AND WITH INCREASED MOISTURE DRAWN IN
FROM THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD...BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE 8000-9000FT.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z FRIDAY)...AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ON TAP DURING THE FRI-SAT PERIODS. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN HANDLING OF TWO TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE
MEAN LONG WAVE DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE FIRST CARVING SUBTLY THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY AND THE LATTER APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODEL TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES ARE MOST
NOTABLE REGARDING THE LATTER TROUGH AS THE 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN
MAINTAIN A DEEPER CLOSED UPPER LOW TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST IN WAKE OF
THE FIRST TROUGHS DEPARTURE...WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS STRONG
SPLITTING ALONG THE PACNW COAST WITH SOUTHERN SPLIT TRACKING
SOUTHEAST DOWN THE CALI COAST. GEFS SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
SCENARIOS. THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE...LEANED A BIT TOWARDS
THE EC/CANADIAN TRENDS DUE TO SOME SEMBLANCE OF CONSISTENCY MODEL TO
MODEL...AND FEEL THIS SCENARIO IS QUITE REASONABLE DUE TO THE HEIGHT
WEAKNESS ALREADY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN FROM THE
EARLIER TROUGH. ONLY NOTABLE CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO THE FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIODS TRENDING THINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
WETTER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

THEREAFTER MODELS EXHIBIT LESS SPREAD DEPICTING LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN SUN-MON AS THE MEAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH REBUILDS ACROSS THE PACNW REGION. MAINTAINED A WARMING/DRYING
TREND LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SUCH.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MINIMAL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-
19Z PER NORM...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY AT THE SURFACE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS BENEATH A RELATIVELY DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
ISOLATED BUILDUPS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW ALONG THE MOUNTAIN SPINES EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS NORTHEAST INTO THE UINTA MOUNTAINS. MINIMAL IF ANY PRECIP
IS EXPECTED FROM THIS DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE DRY LOW LEVELS. PRIMARY
FIRE WEATHER IMPACT FROM ONE OF THESE ROGUE CELLS WOULD BE AN
ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR BRIEFLY STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. A
SERIES OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MID WEEK
INTO PORTIONS OF THIS WEEKEND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS. WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE RISE LATE WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEKEND AS SUCH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 201046
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
446 AM MDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY)...NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS CURRENTLY SEEN DIVING INTO EAST-CENTRAL
UTAH. OVERNIGHT RADAR IMAGERY...AT LEAST WHAT WAS PRODUCED BY KICX
BEFORE IT WENT DOWN DUE TO EQUIPMENT ISSUES...INDICATED SOME WEAK
RETURNS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL UTAH. THESE
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE INDUCED IN PART BY SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF SAID DISTURBANCE BUT ARE LIKELY PRODUCING LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
AREA NEAR SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEARER IN THE
MORE STABLE AIRMASS BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER WEAK
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WAVE COUPLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED TERRAIN-BASED
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE...A SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TODAY ALLOWING FOR A SMALL BUMP
IN AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TOMORROW AND
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED WARMING TREND. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL
INDICATE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE TO GENERATE CONVECTION...BUT WITH
ADDITIONAL FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FROM A CLOSED LOW THAT IS
PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW IS
PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND WEAKEN...WITH THE REMNANTS LIFTING ACROSS
UTAH WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AND LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER CLOSED LOW THAT MODELS INDICATE WILL HAVE SPLIT FROM A
TROUGH CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PROGGED TO ROTATE INTO THE
AREA AND TRACK EAST ACROSS ARIZONA ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
COOLING TREND AS MODELS PUSH A SHALLOW BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN UTAH
FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE...AND WITH INCREASED MOISTURE DRAWN IN
FROM THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD...BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE 8000-9000FT.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z FRIDAY)...AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ON TAP DURING THE FRI-SAT PERIODS. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN HANDLING OF TWO TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE
MEAN LONG WAVE DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE FIRST CARVING SUBTLY THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY AND THE LATTER APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODEL TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES ARE MOST
NOTABLE REGARDING THE LATTER TROUGH AS THE 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN
MAINTAIN A DEEPER CLOSED UPPER LOW TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST IN WAKE OF
THE FIRST TROUGHS DEPARTURE...WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS STRONG
SPLITTING ALONG THE PACNW COAST WITH SOUTHERN SPLIT TRACKING
SOUTHEAST DOWN THE CALI COAST. GEFS SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
SCENARIOS. THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE...LEANED A BIT TOWARDS
THE EC/CANADIAN TRENDS DUE TO SOME SEMBLANCE OF CONSISTENCY MODEL TO
MODEL...AND FEEL THIS SCENARIO IS QUITE REASONABLE DUE TO THE HEIGHT
WEAKNESS ALREADY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN FROM THE
EARLIER TROUGH. ONLY NOTABLE CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO THE FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIODS TRENDING THINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
WETTER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

THEREAFTER MODELS EXHIBIT LESS SPREAD DEPICTING LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN SUN-MON AS THE MEAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH REBUILDS ACROSS THE PACNW REGION. MAINTAINED A WARMING/DRYING
TREND LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SUCH.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MINIMAL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-
19Z PER NORM...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY AT THE SURFACE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS BENEATH A RELATIVELY DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
ISOLATED BUILDUPS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW ALONG THE MOUNTAIN SPINES EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS NORTHEAST INTO THE UINTA MOUNTAINS. MINIMAL IF ANY PRECIP
IS EXPECTED FROM THIS DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE DRY LOW LEVELS. PRIMARY
FIRE WEATHER IMPACT FROM ONE OF THESE ROGUE CELLS WOULD BE AN
ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR BRIEFLY STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. A
SERIES OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MID WEEK
INTO PORTIONS OF THIS WEEKEND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS. WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE RISE LATE WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEKEND AS SUCH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 201046
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
446 AM MDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY)...NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS CURRENTLY SEEN DIVING INTO EAST-CENTRAL
UTAH. OVERNIGHT RADAR IMAGERY...AT LEAST WHAT WAS PRODUCED BY KICX
BEFORE IT WENT DOWN DUE TO EQUIPMENT ISSUES...INDICATED SOME WEAK
RETURNS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL UTAH. THESE
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE INDUCED IN PART BY SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF SAID DISTURBANCE BUT ARE LIKELY PRODUCING LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
AREA NEAR SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEARER IN THE
MORE STABLE AIRMASS BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER WEAK
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WAVE COUPLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED TERRAIN-BASED
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE...A SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TODAY ALLOWING FOR A SMALL BUMP
IN AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TOMORROW AND
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED WARMING TREND. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL
INDICATE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE TO GENERATE CONVECTION...BUT WITH
ADDITIONAL FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FROM A CLOSED LOW THAT IS
PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW IS
PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND WEAKEN...WITH THE REMNANTS LIFTING ACROSS
UTAH WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AND LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER CLOSED LOW THAT MODELS INDICATE WILL HAVE SPLIT FROM A
TROUGH CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PROGGED TO ROTATE INTO THE
AREA AND TRACK EAST ACROSS ARIZONA ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
COOLING TREND AS MODELS PUSH A SHALLOW BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN UTAH
FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE...AND WITH INCREASED MOISTURE DRAWN IN
FROM THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD...BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE 8000-9000FT.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z FRIDAY)...AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ON TAP DURING THE FRI-SAT PERIODS. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN HANDLING OF TWO TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE
MEAN LONG WAVE DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE FIRST CARVING SUBTLY THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY AND THE LATTER APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODEL TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES ARE MOST
NOTABLE REGARDING THE LATTER TROUGH AS THE 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN
MAINTAIN A DEEPER CLOSED UPPER LOW TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST IN WAKE OF
THE FIRST TROUGHS DEPARTURE...WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS STRONG
SPLITTING ALONG THE PACNW COAST WITH SOUTHERN SPLIT TRACKING
SOUTHEAST DOWN THE CALI COAST. GEFS SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
SCENARIOS. THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE...LEANED A BIT TOWARDS
THE EC/CANADIAN TRENDS DUE TO SOME SEMBLANCE OF CONSISTENCY MODEL TO
MODEL...AND FEEL THIS SCENARIO IS QUITE REASONABLE DUE TO THE HEIGHT
WEAKNESS ALREADY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN FROM THE
EARLIER TROUGH. ONLY NOTABLE CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO THE FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIODS TRENDING THINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
WETTER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

THEREAFTER MODELS EXHIBIT LESS SPREAD DEPICTING LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN SUN-MON AS THE MEAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH REBUILDS ACROSS THE PACNW REGION. MAINTAINED A WARMING/DRYING
TREND LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SUCH.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MINIMAL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-
19Z PER NORM...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY AT THE SURFACE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS BENEATH A RELATIVELY DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
ISOLATED BUILDUPS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW ALONG THE MOUNTAIN SPINES EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS NORTHEAST INTO THE UINTA MOUNTAINS. MINIMAL IF ANY PRECIP
IS EXPECTED FROM THIS DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE DRY LOW LEVELS. PRIMARY
FIRE WEATHER IMPACT FROM ONE OF THESE ROGUE CELLS WOULD BE AN
ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR BRIEFLY STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. A
SERIES OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MID WEEK
INTO PORTIONS OF THIS WEEKEND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS. WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE RISE LATE WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEKEND AS SUCH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 200243
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
843 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...BEFORE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH
WHICH ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS...AND A
MEAN RIDGE POSITION ALONG THE WEST COAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
CROSSING SOUTHERN UT COMBINED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE HAVE SINCE WEAKENED AND MOVED
OUT OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WEAK PERTURBATION EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE FLOW IS CROSSING SOUTHERN ID...AND INDUCING LITTLE MORE
THAN AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN
UT...WITH ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION REMAINING WELL EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL WY.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO BUILD
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TERRAIN BASED CONVECTION EACH DAY.
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED...WITH A
BROAD BUT DIFFUSE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS MEANDERING THROUGH
THROUGH THE FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN TERMS OF TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE
FEATURES REMAINS LOW...BUT THE OVERALL TREND LOOKS TO BE COOLER
AND WETTER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING CONVECTION...OTHERWISE GOING
FORECAST APPEARS IN REASONABLE SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SLC TERMINAL INTO THE EVENING...SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 02-
04Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 200243
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
843 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...BEFORE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH
WHICH ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS...AND A
MEAN RIDGE POSITION ALONG THE WEST COAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
CROSSING SOUTHERN UT COMBINED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE HAVE SINCE WEAKENED AND MOVED
OUT OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WEAK PERTURBATION EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE FLOW IS CROSSING SOUTHERN ID...AND INDUCING LITTLE MORE
THAN AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN
UT...WITH ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION REMAINING WELL EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL WY.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO BUILD
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TERRAIN BASED CONVECTION EACH DAY.
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED...WITH A
BROAD BUT DIFFUSE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS MEANDERING THROUGH
THROUGH THE FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN TERMS OF TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE
FEATURES REMAINS LOW...BUT THE OVERALL TREND LOOKS TO BE COOLER
AND WETTER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING CONVECTION...OTHERWISE GOING
FORECAST APPEARS IN REASONABLE SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SLC TERMINAL INTO THE EVENING...SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 02-
04Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 192142
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
342 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH SPINNING OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BROUGHT SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH
THAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH HAS LIMITED WARMING OF THE AIRMASS
TODAY...AND TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE QUITE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS
OBSERVED YESTERDAY.

THE CALIFORNIA TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA OUT AHEAD OF IT.
THIS WILL START THE WARMING TREND UP AGAIN...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH WILL
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A BIT OF TERRAIN BASED CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BY WEDNESDAY...THIS TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE IN A
WEAKENED STATE...PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN FROM ROUGHLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS RELATED TO HOW SEVERAL
TROUGHS INTERACT WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND
JUST HOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE SPLITTING TROUGHS OCCURS. AT THIS
POINT...RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY REMAINS POOR. IT
IS DIFFICULT TO FOCUS ON ANY ONE FEATURE WITH ANY REAL
SKILL/CERTAINTY. OVERALL...EXPECT A PATTERN THAT FEATURES INCREASING
THREAT OF CONVECTION AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE WEST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HANDLED THIS PATTERN WELL. ADJUSTED SEVERAL POP GRIDS A BIT HIGHER
GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...BUT OTHERWISE THE MAIN MESSAGE HAS
REMAINED THE SAME.

&&

.AVIATION...WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SLC TERMINAL INTO THE EVENING...SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 02-
04Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TRAPHAGAN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 192142
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
342 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH SPINNING OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BROUGHT SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH
THAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH HAS LIMITED WARMING OF THE AIRMASS
TODAY...AND TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE QUITE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS
OBSERVED YESTERDAY.

THE CALIFORNIA TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA OUT AHEAD OF IT.
THIS WILL START THE WARMING TREND UP AGAIN...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH WILL
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A BIT OF TERRAIN BASED CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BY WEDNESDAY...THIS TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE IN A
WEAKENED STATE...PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN FROM ROUGHLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS RELATED TO HOW SEVERAL
TROUGHS INTERACT WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND
JUST HOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE SPLITTING TROUGHS OCCURS. AT THIS
POINT...RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY REMAINS POOR. IT
IS DIFFICULT TO FOCUS ON ANY ONE FEATURE WITH ANY REAL
SKILL/CERTAINTY. OVERALL...EXPECT A PATTERN THAT FEATURES INCREASING
THREAT OF CONVECTION AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE WEST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HANDLED THIS PATTERN WELL. ADJUSTED SEVERAL POP GRIDS A BIT HIGHER
GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...BUT OTHERWISE THE MAIN MESSAGE HAS
REMAINED THE SAME.

&&

.AVIATION...WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SLC TERMINAL INTO THE EVENING...SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 02-
04Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TRAPHAGAN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 192142
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
342 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH SPINNING OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BROUGHT SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH
THAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH HAS LIMITED WARMING OF THE AIRMASS
TODAY...AND TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE QUITE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS
OBSERVED YESTERDAY.

THE CALIFORNIA TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA OUT AHEAD OF IT.
THIS WILL START THE WARMING TREND UP AGAIN...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH WILL
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A BIT OF TERRAIN BASED CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BY WEDNESDAY...THIS TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE IN A
WEAKENED STATE...PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN FROM ROUGHLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS RELATED TO HOW SEVERAL
TROUGHS INTERACT WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND
JUST HOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE SPLITTING TROUGHS OCCURS. AT THIS
POINT...RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY REMAINS POOR. IT
IS DIFFICULT TO FOCUS ON ANY ONE FEATURE WITH ANY REAL
SKILL/CERTAINTY. OVERALL...EXPECT A PATTERN THAT FEATURES INCREASING
THREAT OF CONVECTION AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE WEST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HANDLED THIS PATTERN WELL. ADJUSTED SEVERAL POP GRIDS A BIT HIGHER
GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...BUT OTHERWISE THE MAIN MESSAGE HAS
REMAINED THE SAME.

&&

.AVIATION...WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SLC TERMINAL INTO THE EVENING...SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 02-
04Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TRAPHAGAN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 192142
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
342 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH SPINNING OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BROUGHT SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH
THAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH HAS LIMITED WARMING OF THE AIRMASS
TODAY...AND TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE QUITE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS
OBSERVED YESTERDAY.

THE CALIFORNIA TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA OUT AHEAD OF IT.
THIS WILL START THE WARMING TREND UP AGAIN...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH WILL
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A BIT OF TERRAIN BASED CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BY WEDNESDAY...THIS TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE IN A
WEAKENED STATE...PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN FROM ROUGHLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS RELATED TO HOW SEVERAL
TROUGHS INTERACT WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND
JUST HOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE SPLITTING TROUGHS OCCURS. AT THIS
POINT...RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY REMAINS POOR. IT
IS DIFFICULT TO FOCUS ON ANY ONE FEATURE WITH ANY REAL
SKILL/CERTAINTY. OVERALL...EXPECT A PATTERN THAT FEATURES INCREASING
THREAT OF CONVECTION AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE WEST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HANDLED THIS PATTERN WELL. ADJUSTED SEVERAL POP GRIDS A BIT HIGHER
GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...BUT OTHERWISE THE MAIN MESSAGE HAS
REMAINED THE SAME.

&&

.AVIATION...WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SLC TERMINAL INTO THE EVENING...SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 02-
04Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TRAPHAGAN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 192142
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
342 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH SPINNING OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BROUGHT SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH
THAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH HAS LIMITED WARMING OF THE AIRMASS
TODAY...AND TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE QUITE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS
OBSERVED YESTERDAY.

THE CALIFORNIA TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA OUT AHEAD OF IT.
THIS WILL START THE WARMING TREND UP AGAIN...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH WILL
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A BIT OF TERRAIN BASED CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BY WEDNESDAY...THIS TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE IN A
WEAKENED STATE...PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN FROM ROUGHLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS RELATED TO HOW SEVERAL
TROUGHS INTERACT WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND
JUST HOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE SPLITTING TROUGHS OCCURS. AT THIS
POINT...RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY REMAINS POOR. IT
IS DIFFICULT TO FOCUS ON ANY ONE FEATURE WITH ANY REAL
SKILL/CERTAINTY. OVERALL...EXPECT A PATTERN THAT FEATURES INCREASING
THREAT OF CONVECTION AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE WEST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HANDLED THIS PATTERN WELL. ADJUSTED SEVERAL POP GRIDS A BIT HIGHER
GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...BUT OTHERWISE THE MAIN MESSAGE HAS
REMAINED THE SAME.

&&

.AVIATION...WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SLC TERMINAL INTO THE EVENING...SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 02-
04Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TRAPHAGAN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 192142
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
342 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH SPINNING OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BROUGHT SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH
THAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH HAS LIMITED WARMING OF THE AIRMASS
TODAY...AND TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE QUITE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS
OBSERVED YESTERDAY.

THE CALIFORNIA TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA OUT AHEAD OF IT.
THIS WILL START THE WARMING TREND UP AGAIN...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH WILL
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A BIT OF TERRAIN BASED CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BY WEDNESDAY...THIS TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE IN A
WEAKENED STATE...PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN FROM ROUGHLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS RELATED TO HOW SEVERAL
TROUGHS INTERACT WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND
JUST HOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE SPLITTING TROUGHS OCCURS. AT THIS
POINT...RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY REMAINS POOR. IT
IS DIFFICULT TO FOCUS ON ANY ONE FEATURE WITH ANY REAL
SKILL/CERTAINTY. OVERALL...EXPECT A PATTERN THAT FEATURES INCREASING
THREAT OF CONVECTION AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE WEST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HANDLED THIS PATTERN WELL. ADJUSTED SEVERAL POP GRIDS A BIT HIGHER
GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...BUT OTHERWISE THE MAIN MESSAGE HAS
REMAINED THE SAME.

&&

.AVIATION...WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SLC TERMINAL INTO THE EVENING...SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 02-
04Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TRAPHAGAN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 191553
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
953 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWESTWARD OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING. INSTABILITY WITH THIS WAVE WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...PRIMARILY
OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN UTAH. THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH WILL
ALSO CURB WARMING OF THE AIRMASS ALOFT TODAY. AS A RESULT...MAXES
TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...IN EXCESS OF 5F ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS DOES NOT DRY OUT MUCH AND WEAK
WAVES FROM THE MEANDERING CALIFORNIA SYSTEM WILL KEEP SOME
INSTABILITY AROUND...ALLOWING FOR MORE TERRAIN BASED CONVECTION.
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH
MAXES RUNNING MORE THAN 10F ABOVE CLIMO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
MIDWEEK...THE WEATHER PATTERN TURNS MORE UNSETTLED WITH THE HELP
OF THE CALIFORNIA SYSTEM THAT MOVES ONSHORE AND ANOTHER SPLITTING
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM.

NO UPDATES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MINIMAL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO A LIGHT NORTHWEST BETWEEN
17-19Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 191553
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
953 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWESTWARD OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING. INSTABILITY WITH THIS WAVE WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...PRIMARILY
OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN UTAH. THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH WILL
ALSO CURB WARMING OF THE AIRMASS ALOFT TODAY. AS A RESULT...MAXES
TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...IN EXCESS OF 5F ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS DOES NOT DRY OUT MUCH AND WEAK
WAVES FROM THE MEANDERING CALIFORNIA SYSTEM WILL KEEP SOME
INSTABILITY AROUND...ALLOWING FOR MORE TERRAIN BASED CONVECTION.
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH
MAXES RUNNING MORE THAN 10F ABOVE CLIMO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
MIDWEEK...THE WEATHER PATTERN TURNS MORE UNSETTLED WITH THE HELP
OF THE CALIFORNIA SYSTEM THAT MOVES ONSHORE AND ANOTHER SPLITTING
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM.

NO UPDATES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MINIMAL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO A LIGHT NORTHWEST BETWEEN
17-19Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 191012
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
412 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z THU)...A HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE OR COAST
WITH A WEAK LOW SOUTH OF IT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A NWLY FLOW
OVER THE CWA. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE ERN
UINTA MTNS ACROSS SWRN WY AND INTO SERN ID. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SWD WILL ASSIST DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK CONVECTION ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THIS AFTN SWD INTO THE SRN MTNS. THE PROXIMITY OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOLDS TEMPS ACROSS THE NRN CWA STEADY AND EXPECT
MAXES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OR JUST A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO A WARMER
START.

THE TRAILING END OF THIS WEAK WAVE AND WEAK DEFORMATION ACROSS SRN
UT AHEAD OF THE WEAK OFFSHORE LOW GIVES CONVECTION A BOOST AGAIN
MON BUT MAINLY FROM THE UINTAS SWD. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM A
LITTLE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS INLAND.

THE RIDGE AND WEAK CLOSED LOW SHIFT FARTHER INLAND TUE WITH
CONTINUED AIRMASS WARMING AND INCREASING DEFORMATION ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SRN UT. THIS BRINGS WARMER TEMPS AND A CONTINUED
THREAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION...POSSIBLY LESS TERRAIN BASED.

THE GFS DEPICTS THE WEAK LOW EJECTING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WED AS
A NEW CLOSED LOW DROPS DOWN THE COAST. HOWEVER THE EC IS WEAKER
WITH BOTH FEATURES AND SENDS THE OFFSHORE LOW QUITE A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH WITH LESS INTERACTION BETWEEN THEM. HAVE RAISED POPS FOR WED
TO REFLECT AN INCREASING THREAT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO POOR MODEL AGREEMENT AND POOR RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY ON THE DETAILS IN BOTH.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS (IN LARGE PART) HAVE
COME TO A CONSENSUS REGARDING THE LONG WAVE PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD
...BUT MANY DETAILS CONTINUE TO CHANGE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
AS PREVIOUSLY NOTED. SPECIFICALLY THE EXTENT OF SPLIT OF A TROUGH
ORIGINATING IN THE GULF OF AK MID/LATE WEEK AND FOCUSED PLACEMENT
OF ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE ENERGY THEREAFTER. REGARDLESS...00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOCAL/BAJA AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THAT WILL THEN TRANSLATE ENE THROUGH
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT THIS TROUGH REMAINS
CLOSED IN NATURE OR BECOMES MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE REMAINS TO BE
SEEN AS WELL.

BOTTOM LINE...THE CHANCE FOR PRIMARILY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS TO INCREASE WELL INTO THE
PERIOD WITH A MOST LIKELY PEAK IN AREAL COVERAGE COMING
FRIDAY...THIS WITH PASSAGE OF THE CORE OF TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. ONLY
CHANGES IN POP GRIDS THIS ROUND WAS TO INCREASE PROBABILITIES IN THE
MOUNTAINS BY 5 TO 10 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY THE SPINE RUNNING FROM THE
SOUTHERN MTNS NE TO THE UINTAS. RETAINED BULK OF PREVIOUS FORECAST
DETAILS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MINIMAL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO A LIGHT NORTHWEST BETWEEN
17-19Z PER NORM AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 191012
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
412 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z THU)...A HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE OR COAST
WITH A WEAK LOW SOUTH OF IT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A NWLY FLOW
OVER THE CWA. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE ERN
UINTA MTNS ACROSS SWRN WY AND INTO SERN ID. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SWD WILL ASSIST DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK CONVECTION ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THIS AFTN SWD INTO THE SRN MTNS. THE PROXIMITY OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOLDS TEMPS ACROSS THE NRN CWA STEADY AND EXPECT
MAXES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OR JUST A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO A WARMER
START.

THE TRAILING END OF THIS WEAK WAVE AND WEAK DEFORMATION ACROSS SRN
UT AHEAD OF THE WEAK OFFSHORE LOW GIVES CONVECTION A BOOST AGAIN
MON BUT MAINLY FROM THE UINTAS SWD. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM A
LITTLE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS INLAND.

THE RIDGE AND WEAK CLOSED LOW SHIFT FARTHER INLAND TUE WITH
CONTINUED AIRMASS WARMING AND INCREASING DEFORMATION ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SRN UT. THIS BRINGS WARMER TEMPS AND A CONTINUED
THREAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION...POSSIBLY LESS TERRAIN BASED.

THE GFS DEPICTS THE WEAK LOW EJECTING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WED AS
A NEW CLOSED LOW DROPS DOWN THE COAST. HOWEVER THE EC IS WEAKER
WITH BOTH FEATURES AND SENDS THE OFFSHORE LOW QUITE A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH WITH LESS INTERACTION BETWEEN THEM. HAVE RAISED POPS FOR WED
TO REFLECT AN INCREASING THREAT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO POOR MODEL AGREEMENT AND POOR RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY ON THE DETAILS IN BOTH.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS (IN LARGE PART) HAVE
COME TO A CONSENSUS REGARDING THE LONG WAVE PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD
...BUT MANY DETAILS CONTINUE TO CHANGE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
AS PREVIOUSLY NOTED. SPECIFICALLY THE EXTENT OF SPLIT OF A TROUGH
ORIGINATING IN THE GULF OF AK MID/LATE WEEK AND FOCUSED PLACEMENT
OF ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE ENERGY THEREAFTER. REGARDLESS...00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOCAL/BAJA AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THAT WILL THEN TRANSLATE ENE THROUGH
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT THIS TROUGH REMAINS
CLOSED IN NATURE OR BECOMES MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE REMAINS TO BE
SEEN AS WELL.

BOTTOM LINE...THE CHANCE FOR PRIMARILY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS TO INCREASE WELL INTO THE
PERIOD WITH A MOST LIKELY PEAK IN AREAL COVERAGE COMING
FRIDAY...THIS WITH PASSAGE OF THE CORE OF TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. ONLY
CHANGES IN POP GRIDS THIS ROUND WAS TO INCREASE PROBABILITIES IN THE
MOUNTAINS BY 5 TO 10 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY THE SPINE RUNNING FROM THE
SOUTHERN MTNS NE TO THE UINTAS. RETAINED BULK OF PREVIOUS FORECAST
DETAILS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MINIMAL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO A LIGHT NORTHWEST BETWEEN
17-19Z PER NORM AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 191012
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
412 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z THU)...A HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE OR COAST
WITH A WEAK LOW SOUTH OF IT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A NWLY FLOW
OVER THE CWA. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE ERN
UINTA MTNS ACROSS SWRN WY AND INTO SERN ID. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SWD WILL ASSIST DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK CONVECTION ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THIS AFTN SWD INTO THE SRN MTNS. THE PROXIMITY OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOLDS TEMPS ACROSS THE NRN CWA STEADY AND EXPECT
MAXES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OR JUST A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO A WARMER
START.

THE TRAILING END OF THIS WEAK WAVE AND WEAK DEFORMATION ACROSS SRN
UT AHEAD OF THE WEAK OFFSHORE LOW GIVES CONVECTION A BOOST AGAIN
MON BUT MAINLY FROM THE UINTAS SWD. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM A
LITTLE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS INLAND.

THE RIDGE AND WEAK CLOSED LOW SHIFT FARTHER INLAND TUE WITH
CONTINUED AIRMASS WARMING AND INCREASING DEFORMATION ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SRN UT. THIS BRINGS WARMER TEMPS AND A CONTINUED
THREAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION...POSSIBLY LESS TERRAIN BASED.

THE GFS DEPICTS THE WEAK LOW EJECTING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WED AS
A NEW CLOSED LOW DROPS DOWN THE COAST. HOWEVER THE EC IS WEAKER
WITH BOTH FEATURES AND SENDS THE OFFSHORE LOW QUITE A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH WITH LESS INTERACTION BETWEEN THEM. HAVE RAISED POPS FOR WED
TO REFLECT AN INCREASING THREAT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO POOR MODEL AGREEMENT AND POOR RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY ON THE DETAILS IN BOTH.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS (IN LARGE PART) HAVE
COME TO A CONSENSUS REGARDING THE LONG WAVE PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD
...BUT MANY DETAILS CONTINUE TO CHANGE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
AS PREVIOUSLY NOTED. SPECIFICALLY THE EXTENT OF SPLIT OF A TROUGH
ORIGINATING IN THE GULF OF AK MID/LATE WEEK AND FOCUSED PLACEMENT
OF ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE ENERGY THEREAFTER. REGARDLESS...00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOCAL/BAJA AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THAT WILL THEN TRANSLATE ENE THROUGH
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT THIS TROUGH REMAINS
CLOSED IN NATURE OR BECOMES MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE REMAINS TO BE
SEEN AS WELL.

BOTTOM LINE...THE CHANCE FOR PRIMARILY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS TO INCREASE WELL INTO THE
PERIOD WITH A MOST LIKELY PEAK IN AREAL COVERAGE COMING
FRIDAY...THIS WITH PASSAGE OF THE CORE OF TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. ONLY
CHANGES IN POP GRIDS THIS ROUND WAS TO INCREASE PROBABILITIES IN THE
MOUNTAINS BY 5 TO 10 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY THE SPINE RUNNING FROM THE
SOUTHERN MTNS NE TO THE UINTAS. RETAINED BULK OF PREVIOUS FORECAST
DETAILS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MINIMAL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO A LIGHT NORTHWEST BETWEEN
17-19Z PER NORM AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 190358
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
958 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN THIS EVENING...IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING UPPER LOW MAKING
ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK UPPER WAVE
WELL REPRESENTED IN RAP 300MB PVU ANALYSIS IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS FLOW ALOFT AND MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHERN UT THIS
WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE COUPLED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS EASTERN UT FIRED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SINCE WEAKENED AND MOVED
EAST OF THE AREA...THUS WILL UPDATE TO REDUCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

THE MODELS GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL UT SUNDAY OWING TO LINGERING MOISTURE
WHICH REMAINS IN PLACE. AS MID LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK A CONTINUED WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED AREAWIDE WITH A SMALL THREAT OF DIURNAL TERRAIN BASED
CONVECTION EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS UNDER VFR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT AT KSLC.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 190358
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
958 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN THIS EVENING...IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING UPPER LOW MAKING
ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK UPPER WAVE
WELL REPRESENTED IN RAP 300MB PVU ANALYSIS IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS FLOW ALOFT AND MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHERN UT THIS
WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE COUPLED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS EASTERN UT FIRED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SINCE WEAKENED AND MOVED
EAST OF THE AREA...THUS WILL UPDATE TO REDUCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

THE MODELS GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL UT SUNDAY OWING TO LINGERING MOISTURE
WHICH REMAINS IN PLACE. AS MID LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK A CONTINUED WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED AREAWIDE WITH A SMALL THREAT OF DIURNAL TERRAIN BASED
CONVECTION EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS UNDER VFR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT AT KSLC.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 190358
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
958 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN THIS EVENING...IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING UPPER LOW MAKING
ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK UPPER WAVE
WELL REPRESENTED IN RAP 300MB PVU ANALYSIS IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS FLOW ALOFT AND MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHERN UT THIS
WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE COUPLED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS EASTERN UT FIRED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SINCE WEAKENED AND MOVED
EAST OF THE AREA...THUS WILL UPDATE TO REDUCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

THE MODELS GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL UT SUNDAY OWING TO LINGERING MOISTURE
WHICH REMAINS IN PLACE. AS MID LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK A CONTINUED WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED AREAWIDE WITH A SMALL THREAT OF DIURNAL TERRAIN BASED
CONVECTION EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS UNDER VFR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT AT KSLC.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




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