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000
FXUS65 KSLC 311438
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
838 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MILD AND INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A VIGOROUS PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH UTAH SATURDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OF
THE ROCKIES AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST. A WEAKENING
SOUTHERN PACIFIC SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LIFTING OVERHEAD. AMDAR
400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A CYCLONIC 100-135KT JET OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GOES/GPS/RAP/12Z RAOB INDICATE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.15" MOUNTAINS...TO 0.40"
VALLEYS.

TODAY WILL BE THE WARM BEFORE THE STORM. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO PRESSURE AND HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 30KT SOUTHERLY FLOW AS
SHOWN BY THE RAP SHOULD EQUATE TO CONDITIONS JUST SHY OF WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEEPENING MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
RISE WELL INTO THE 70S WITH +7C 700MB TEMPERATURES.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAKENING WAVE HAS BROUGHT SCATTERED TO AT TIMES
BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST UTAH LATE TODAY...SO MADE POPS NON-ZERO...BUT STILL NO
MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH SUNSET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE COLD CORE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHING 130W EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BRING A DRAMATIC CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP
THIS WEEKEND. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL REACH THE WEST COAST
THIS EVENING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA EARLY SATURDAY...THEN
LIFT QUICKLY NORTH THROUGH UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN UTAH EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN LIFT NORTHEAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE DURING THE DAY.
INCREASING FRONTOGENIC FORCING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON ALONG WITH STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT SHOULD EASILY
SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SUBSTANTIAL
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEVADA IN THE AREA OF
FAIRLY STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION WILL EXIST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

BESIDES THE CONVECTION WINDS WILL BE A MAJOR ISSUE WITH THIS STORM
TONIGHT/SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE WILL SEE THE TYPICAL
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH THE FAVORABLE SURFACE GRADIENT AND
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WIND SUPPORT. WINDS COULD APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SUSPECT THAT TONIGHT MAY BE
THE MORE LIKELY PERIOD FOR THESE STRONGER WINDS. BECAUSE OF THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRACK OF THE SURFACE FRONT...THE STILL STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN AND CREATE ADDITIONAL
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN VALLEYS
SATURDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.

PATTERN GETS A BIT COMPLICATED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
EJECTING SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... LEAVING THE
MAIN TROUGH HANGING BACK ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THE BEST DYNAMIC
FORCING WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA/EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH. THE FOCUS OF ORGANIZED PRECIP WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHED OUT ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AXIS THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE STATE. INCREASING
INSTABILITY AS THE COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE STATE COMBINED WITH
DYNAMIC LIFT AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIP NEAR THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

NORTH OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE A DECENT POOL OF COLD/MOIST AIR
EXISTS...BUT THE DYNAMIC LIFT MAY TURN OUT TO BE WEAK BETWEEN THE
EXITING SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE SYSTEM WELL TO THE
SOUTH. LOOKING FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH ONE LAST WEAK SHORTWAVE BRINGING SOME ORGANIZATION TO
THE PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGHOUT IN
THE VALLEYS. INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY DETERMINE IF SNOW
FALLS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH THE MEAN LAYER IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND MAY NOT
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENT TO SNOW TOTALS.

BUILDING HEIGHTS BEGINNING LATE MONDAY SHOULD SIGNAL THE END OF
PRECIP BY MONDAY EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS BACK
TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SPREAD SOME CLOUDS INTO
NORTHERN UTAH...WITH NO REAL THREAT OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS SHOULD BE
SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH
EXPECTED TO BEGIN BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE HAS STARTED TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS ALLOWING A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING. VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
TODAY AS SUCH BUT CHANGES WILL COME SATURDAY INTO EARLY WEEK AS A
COLD PACIFIC STORM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO MUCH OF THE DISTRICT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND VERY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...WITH
FOCUS ACROSS THE NORTH. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY STAY
ABOVE 8000 FEET WITH UP A TO A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE. A
SECONDARY PIECE OF THE STORM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING A FOCUSED ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE
SOUTHEAST AT THAT TIME.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/CONGER
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL
AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 311045
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
445 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MILD AND INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A VIGOROUS PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH UTAH SATURDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD CORE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHING
130W EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING A DRAMATIC CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP THIS WEEKEND. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL
REACH THE WEST COAST THIS EVENING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA
EARLY SATURDAY...THEN LIFT QUICKLY NORTH THROUGH UTAH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN UTAH EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN LIFT NORTHEAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE DURING THE DAY.
INCREASING FRONTOGENIC FORCING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON ALONG WITH STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT SHOULD EASILY
SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SUBSTANTIAL
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEVADA IN THE AREA OF
FAIRLY STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION WILL EXIST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

BESIDES THE CONVECTION WINDS WILL BE A MAJOR ISSUE WITH THIS
STORM TONIGHT/SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE WILL SEE THE TYPICAL
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH THE FAVORABLE SURFACE GRADIENT
AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WIND SUPPORT. WINDS COULD APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SUSPECT THAT TONIGHT MAY BE
THE MORE LIKELY PERIOD FOR THESE STRONGER WINDS. BECAUSE OF THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRACK OF THE SURFACE FRONT...THE STILL
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN AND CREATE
ADDITIONAL STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
VALLEYS SATURDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.

PATTERN GETS A BIT COMPLICATED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND AS
THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
LEAVING THE MAIN TROUGH HANGING BACK ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THE
BEST DYNAMIC FORCING WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA/EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH. THE FOCUS OF
ORGANIZED PRECIP WILL REMAIN NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHED
OUT ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AXIS THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE
STATE. INCREASING INSTABILITY AS THE COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE
STATE COMBINED WITH DYNAMIC LIFT AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIP NEAR THE
BOUNDARY SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

NORTH OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE A DECENT POOL OF COLD/MOIST AIR
EXISTS...BUT THE DYNAMIC LIFT MAY TURN OUT TO BE WEAK BETWEEN THE
EXITING SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE SYSTEM WELL TO THE
SOUTH. LOOKING FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH ONE LAST WEAK SHORTWAVE BRINGING SOME ORGANIZATION
TO THE PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE
SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
THROUGHOUT IN THE VALLEYS. INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY
DETERMINE IF SNOW FALLS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...WITH MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO THE
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS...THOUGH THE MEAN LAYER IS
NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND MAY NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENT TO
SNOW TOTALS.

BUILDING HEIGHTS BEGINNING LATE MONDAY SHOULD SIGNAL THE END OF
PRECIP BY MONDAY EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
BACK TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SPREAD SOME
CLOUDS INTO NORTHERN UTAH...WITH NO REAL THREAT OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIP DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT THE KSLC TERMINAL. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEGINNING BETWEEN 20-22Z...A 70 PERCENT
PROBABILITY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE HAS STARTED TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS ALLOWING A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING. VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
TODAY AS SUCH BUT CHANGES WILL COME SATURDAY INTO EARLY WEEK AS A
COLD PACIFIC STORM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO MUCH OF THE DISTRICT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND VERY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...WITH
FOCUS ACROSS THE NORTH. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY STAY
ABOVE 8000 FEET WITH UP A TO A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE. A
SECONDARY PIECE OF THE STORM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING A FOCUSED ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE
SOUTHEAST AT THAT TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE DISTRICT TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM/DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS
DURING THAT TIME.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CONGER
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 311045
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
445 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MILD AND INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A VIGOROUS PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH UTAH SATURDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD CORE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHING
130W EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING A DRAMATIC CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP THIS WEEKEND. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL
REACH THE WEST COAST THIS EVENING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA
EARLY SATURDAY...THEN LIFT QUICKLY NORTH THROUGH UTAH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN UTAH EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN LIFT NORTHEAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE DURING THE DAY.
INCREASING FRONTOGENIC FORCING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON ALONG WITH STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT SHOULD EASILY
SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SUBSTANTIAL
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEVADA IN THE AREA OF
FAIRLY STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION WILL EXIST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

BESIDES THE CONVECTION WINDS WILL BE A MAJOR ISSUE WITH THIS
STORM TONIGHT/SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE WILL SEE THE TYPICAL
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH THE FAVORABLE SURFACE GRADIENT
AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WIND SUPPORT. WINDS COULD APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SUSPECT THAT TONIGHT MAY BE
THE MORE LIKELY PERIOD FOR THESE STRONGER WINDS. BECAUSE OF THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRACK OF THE SURFACE FRONT...THE STILL
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN AND CREATE
ADDITIONAL STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
VALLEYS SATURDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.

PATTERN GETS A BIT COMPLICATED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND AS
THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
LEAVING THE MAIN TROUGH HANGING BACK ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THE
BEST DYNAMIC FORCING WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA/EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH. THE FOCUS OF
ORGANIZED PRECIP WILL REMAIN NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHED
OUT ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AXIS THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE
STATE. INCREASING INSTABILITY AS THE COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE
STATE COMBINED WITH DYNAMIC LIFT AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIP NEAR THE
BOUNDARY SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

NORTH OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE A DECENT POOL OF COLD/MOIST AIR
EXISTS...BUT THE DYNAMIC LIFT MAY TURN OUT TO BE WEAK BETWEEN THE
EXITING SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE SYSTEM WELL TO THE
SOUTH. LOOKING FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH ONE LAST WEAK SHORTWAVE BRINGING SOME ORGANIZATION
TO THE PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE
SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
THROUGHOUT IN THE VALLEYS. INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY
DETERMINE IF SNOW FALLS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...WITH MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO THE
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS...THOUGH THE MEAN LAYER IS
NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND MAY NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENT TO
SNOW TOTALS.

BUILDING HEIGHTS BEGINNING LATE MONDAY SHOULD SIGNAL THE END OF
PRECIP BY MONDAY EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
BACK TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SPREAD SOME
CLOUDS INTO NORTHERN UTAH...WITH NO REAL THREAT OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIP DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT THE KSLC TERMINAL. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEGINNING BETWEEN 20-22Z...A 70 PERCENT
PROBABILITY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE HAS STARTED TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS ALLOWING A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING. VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
TODAY AS SUCH BUT CHANGES WILL COME SATURDAY INTO EARLY WEEK AS A
COLD PACIFIC STORM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO MUCH OF THE DISTRICT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND VERY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...WITH
FOCUS ACROSS THE NORTH. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY STAY
ABOVE 8000 FEET WITH UP A TO A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE. A
SECONDARY PIECE OF THE STORM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING A FOCUSED ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE
SOUTHEAST AT THAT TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE DISTRICT TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM/DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS
DURING THAT TIME.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CONGER
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 310343
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
943 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MILD AND INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A VIGOROUS PACIFIC
STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FAIRLY DEEP COLD PAC TROF IS MOVING ASHORE THIS
EVE WITH A DRY AND MILD SLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN.
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW LIFTING
THRU SRN CA OUT AHEAD OF THE PAC TROF IS CROSSING THE CWA AND
WILL DO SO INTO FRI MORNING.

THE SLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE CWA FRI THRU EARLY SAT AS THE PAC
TROF MOVES INLAND AND INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN.

A VERY STRONG WAVE ROTATING THRU THE BASE OF THE TROF FRI NIGHT
LIFTS ACROSS THE CWA SAT SENDING A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT THRU THE
CWA FROM SW TO NE DURING THE DAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME STRONG
BOTH AHEAD OF THIS WAVE LATE FRI NIGHT THRU SAT MORNING AND REMAIN
STRONG FOR A BRIEF TIME ONCE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTS PAST.
LOCAL WARNING LEVEL WIND SPEEDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN VALLEYS NORTH OF ABOUT CEDAR CITY.

THE WEAK TROF LIFTING THRU THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT WILL BRING UP A
LITTLE MOISTURE INTO THE CWA. THIS MOISTURE LINGERS INTO SAT AND
COULD GENERATE SOME OROGRAPHIC PRECIP LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING ACROSS MAINLY SRN UT. OTHERWISE EXPECT A BAND OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT SAT AFTN WITH SORT OF A LULL SAT
EVE AS THE UPPER TROF SPLITS.

THE SRN PORTION FORMS A CLOSED LOW THAT THE NEW 00Z NAM TRACKS
EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREV RUNS...ENDING UP OVER THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND CENTRAL AZ MON MORNING. THIS FOCUSES
PRECIP OVER THE SERN 1/2 OF THE CWA SUN THRU MON AND LEAVES THE NW
WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN...A LITTLE
DIFFERENT THAN CURRENT FORECAST. NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS TAKE THE
LOW SO FAR SOUTH AND KEEP A BETTER THREAT OF PRECIP FOR THE NORTH
ALTHO THEY TOO FOCUS THE BEST PRECIP OVER THE SE SUN THRU EARLY
MON BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT THE 00Z RUNS DO.

FOR NOW NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH AFTER ABOUT 16-18Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 310343
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
943 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MILD AND INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A VIGOROUS PACIFIC
STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FAIRLY DEEP COLD PAC TROF IS MOVING ASHORE THIS
EVE WITH A DRY AND MILD SLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN.
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW LIFTING
THRU SRN CA OUT AHEAD OF THE PAC TROF IS CROSSING THE CWA AND
WILL DO SO INTO FRI MORNING.

THE SLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE CWA FRI THRU EARLY SAT AS THE PAC
TROF MOVES INLAND AND INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN.

A VERY STRONG WAVE ROTATING THRU THE BASE OF THE TROF FRI NIGHT
LIFTS ACROSS THE CWA SAT SENDING A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT THRU THE
CWA FROM SW TO NE DURING THE DAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME STRONG
BOTH AHEAD OF THIS WAVE LATE FRI NIGHT THRU SAT MORNING AND REMAIN
STRONG FOR A BRIEF TIME ONCE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTS PAST.
LOCAL WARNING LEVEL WIND SPEEDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN VALLEYS NORTH OF ABOUT CEDAR CITY.

THE WEAK TROF LIFTING THRU THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT WILL BRING UP A
LITTLE MOISTURE INTO THE CWA. THIS MOISTURE LINGERS INTO SAT AND
COULD GENERATE SOME OROGRAPHIC PRECIP LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING ACROSS MAINLY SRN UT. OTHERWISE EXPECT A BAND OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT SAT AFTN WITH SORT OF A LULL SAT
EVE AS THE UPPER TROF SPLITS.

THE SRN PORTION FORMS A CLOSED LOW THAT THE NEW 00Z NAM TRACKS
EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREV RUNS...ENDING UP OVER THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND CENTRAL AZ MON MORNING. THIS FOCUSES
PRECIP OVER THE SERN 1/2 OF THE CWA SUN THRU MON AND LEAVES THE NW
WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN...A LITTLE
DIFFERENT THAN CURRENT FORECAST. NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS TAKE THE
LOW SO FAR SOUTH AND KEEP A BETTER THREAT OF PRECIP FOR THE NORTH
ALTHO THEY TOO FOCUS THE BEST PRECIP OVER THE SE SUN THRU EARLY
MON BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT THE 00Z RUNS DO.

FOR NOW NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH AFTER ABOUT 16-18Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 302145
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
345 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING ONE MORE MILD
DAY TO THE AREA BEFORE THE STORM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRING MILD
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA FRIDAY. THE WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE
AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT STRONG WINDS
OVERNIGHT AS INCREASING CLOUDS AND MIXING WILL PREVENT USUAL
DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE WINDS ALOFT. MINIMUM
TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.

REAL ACTION WILL BE SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH PACIFIC
TROUGH CROSSES AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. 12Z GFS AND 12Z
EC TO A LESSOR EXTENT...INDICATE A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH EMBEDDED
CONVECTION WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST WITH A BURST OF
PRECIPITATION AND VERY STRONG WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR 1 TO 2
HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WIND AS THE
FRONT MOVES SO QUICKLY THAT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW.
IF THE 12Z GFS WERE A PERFECT PROG...SEVERE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND FOR A FEW HOURS POST-
FRONTAL. GIVEN THE EVENT IS TWO DAYS OUT...GFS IS NOT LIKELY TO
BE PERFECT. SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS CONSIDERABLY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...BUT STILL NOT AS STRONG AS INDICATED BY 12Z GFS.
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY IT SPLITS AND A COLD POCKET AND UPPER CIRCULATION
TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN AZ. THIS COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN UTAH ON SUNDAY...AND THIS SAME SPLITTING
PATTERN CREATES A SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR LAKE EFFECT
OVER NORTHERN UTAH AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN
TROUGH RESULTS IN UNFAVORABLE SHEAR OVER THE GSL. SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY BRINGING THE SNOW LEVEL TO VALLEY FLOORS IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY TO BE
MINOR.

DRYING AND WARMING NEXT WEEK AS THE STORM TRACK RETURNS TO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND BEYOND. AS DAYS GET SHORTER THE WARMING ALOFT
IS LESS EFFECTIVE AT WARMING THE VALLEY FLOORS WHERE TEMPERATURE
INVERSIONS FORM EVERY NIGHT...SO UNTIL THE NEXT STORM APPROACHES
WITH ENOUGH WIND TO MIX THE AIR...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REGAIN
THOSE OBSERVED RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH BACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DUNN
AVIATION...SCHOENING

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 302145
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
345 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING ONE MORE MILD
DAY TO THE AREA BEFORE THE STORM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRING MILD
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA FRIDAY. THE WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE
AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT STRONG WINDS
OVERNIGHT AS INCREASING CLOUDS AND MIXING WILL PREVENT USUAL
DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE WINDS ALOFT. MINIMUM
TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.

REAL ACTION WILL BE SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH PACIFIC
TROUGH CROSSES AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. 12Z GFS AND 12Z
EC TO A LESSOR EXTENT...INDICATE A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH EMBEDDED
CONVECTION WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST WITH A BURST OF
PRECIPITATION AND VERY STRONG WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR 1 TO 2
HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WIND AS THE
FRONT MOVES SO QUICKLY THAT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW.
IF THE 12Z GFS WERE A PERFECT PROG...SEVERE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND FOR A FEW HOURS POST-
FRONTAL. GIVEN THE EVENT IS TWO DAYS OUT...GFS IS NOT LIKELY TO
BE PERFECT. SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS CONSIDERABLY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...BUT STILL NOT AS STRONG AS INDICATED BY 12Z GFS.
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY IT SPLITS AND A COLD POCKET AND UPPER CIRCULATION
TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN AZ. THIS COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN UTAH ON SUNDAY...AND THIS SAME SPLITTING
PATTERN CREATES A SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR LAKE EFFECT
OVER NORTHERN UTAH AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN
TROUGH RESULTS IN UNFAVORABLE SHEAR OVER THE GSL. SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY BRINGING THE SNOW LEVEL TO VALLEY FLOORS IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY TO BE
MINOR.

DRYING AND WARMING NEXT WEEK AS THE STORM TRACK RETURNS TO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND BEYOND. AS DAYS GET SHORTER THE WARMING ALOFT
IS LESS EFFECTIVE AT WARMING THE VALLEY FLOORS WHERE TEMPERATURE
INVERSIONS FORM EVERY NIGHT...SO UNTIL THE NEXT STORM APPROACHES
WITH ENOUGH WIND TO MIX THE AIR...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REGAIN
THOSE OBSERVED RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH BACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DUNN
AVIATION...SCHOENING

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 301601
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1001 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS A PACIFIC STORM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RIDGE AXIS ALOFT JUST ALONG WESTERN EDGE OF FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. AS RIDGE MOVES EAST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF PACIFIC TROUGH.

OVERNIGHT MODELS AND QUICK LOOK AT EARLY PART OF 12Z GFS ARE ALL
GENERALLY SIMILAR IN WEAKENING THE DEEP TROUGH NOW IN EAST PACIFIC
AS IT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN STATES. LOOKS LIKE ONLY A MODEST
PRECIP EVENT FOR MOST OF FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME WITH QUITE A
BIT OF SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH
AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY. BIGGEST
IMPACT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE WIND. SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS LOOKS
TO BE GENERALLY 6 INCHES OR LESS. STILL SOME THREAT FOR LAKE
EFFECT NEAR THE GSL...BUT NOT AN IDEAL SET UP. WILL DISCUSS THIS
STORM IN GREATER DETAIL IN AFTERNOON DISCUSSION AFTER SEEING 12Z
RUNS.

OTHERWISE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DUNN
AVIATION...SCHOENING

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 300957
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
357 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST
TONIGHT...ALLOWING A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP
FRIDAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AN AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN TODAY BEFORE SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. WARMING ALOFT
COUPLED WITH CONTINUED MODIFICATION OF A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN A WARMING TREND ACROSS MOST AREA
TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RUNNING ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO.

AS THIS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
FLOW COUPLED WITH A DEVELOPING/TIGHTENING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW FOR WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN UTAH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASED MIXING WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE 70S ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A MOIST PACIFIC TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH LOOKS
TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA IN TWO PARTS...THE FIRST COMING IN
THE FORM OF A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL PUSH THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE DURING THE DAY...WITH
SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO NEAR 8000 FEET BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT.

A LULL IN LARGE SCALE PRECIP IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING...BEFORE
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MORE OF A SPLIT WITH THIS
TROUGH...WITH THE BEST ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH SOUTHERN UT...WHILE
THE GFS FAVORS THE NORTH. AS SUCH HAVE NOT MADE RADICAL CHANGES TO
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED FAIRLY HIGH
POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN A FAVORABLE
MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL ALSO DROP SNOW LEVELS TO NEAR 4500 FEET ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ASSUMING A MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ACROSS THE WARM WATERS
OF THE GSL AND OTHER LARGE BODIES OF WATER...WHICH WILL SUPPORT
LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z MONDAY)...THE COLD CORE UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE ITS AXIS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING THROUGH EASTERN UTAH EARLY MONDAY. THE
TROUGH WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH LINGERING
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN UTAH AND THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AT THIS TIME WILL FOLLOW THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH WOULD KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MAINLY NORTHEAST UTAH.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC EARLY
IN THE WEEK WILL SHIFT INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES
DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. RATHER COLD
TEMPERATURES BROUGHT INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND TROUGH WILL BE
SLOW TO WARM AS A STABLE ANTICYCLONIC NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
EXIST ACROSS UTAH. LOOKING AT TEMPS BOUNCING BACK TO SEASONAL OR
GREATER READINGS LATE IN THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTING EAST INTO THE BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...NO OPERATIONAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL TAKE A TURN
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 19-20Z.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/CONGER

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 300341
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
941 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NEVADA THIS EVENING...PROVIDING FOR CONTINUED DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING THROUGH UTAH AT THIS
TIME...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT
RADIATIVE COOLING. HOWEVER...A WARMER AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE
KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE LAST NIGHTS MINS.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TOMORROW...THEN SHIFT EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH A PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA.
HOWEVER...LACK OF DEEP MIXING WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM FULL
POTENTIAL...CONSIDERING H7 TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 6-8C RANGE.
INCREASED MIXING WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES FARTHER UP ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS AS WINDS START TO
PICK UP IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THIS TROUGH
IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING COOLER AND WET WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND.

NO UPDATES THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...NO OPERATIONAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 292220
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
420 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY)...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. AMDAR 400-
250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A WESTERLY 75-110KT JET OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. GOES/GPS/RAP/12Z RAOB
INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.15"
MOUNTAINS...TO 0.50" NORTHWESTERN VALLEYS.

RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO UNDER-PERFORM ACROSS
NORTHERN VALLEYS DUE TO AN INVERSION ESPECIALLY TOMORROW. WENT
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW BIAS CORRECTED BLEND ESPECIALLY OUT IN THE
WEST DESERT.

AS HEIGHTS LOWER OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
SLIDE EAST TOWARD THE ROCKIES...A SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS
FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE DUE TO THE TROPICAL
TAP...WITH THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATING AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ADDED MENTION FOR SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OTHER THAN THE WARM-UP THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM IS THE INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS. HEIGHT/PRESSURE FALLS BEGIN
FRIDAY AND INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A MODEST EASTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT THURSDAY NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AND STRENGTHENING
FRIDAY. WITH 30-35KTS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 700MB...COULD SEE
BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY NIGHT WIND THREAT IS MAINLY RELAGATED TO
THE BENCHES AND HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO NOCTURNAL TRENDS...THOUGH SOME
OF THE FAVORED WESTERN VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST OVERNIGHT.

GIVEN PRE-FRONTAL CONDITIONS...WENT ABOVE BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z SATURDAY)...
THE TROUGH CAREENS INTO UTAH ON SATURDAY...WITH THE EC A FEW
HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS...PUSHING A 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
LONGITUDINALLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE BY THE AFTERNOON. AN
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT OOZES NONCOMMITTALLY INTO NORTHWEST UTAH
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...STALLING IN CENTRAL UTAH BY THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL HOWL AHEAD OF SAID FRONT... POTENTIALLY
NUDGING ADVISORY LEVELS...THEN DIMINISH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MODELS AGREE ON A ONE-TWO PUNCH OF THIS UNCONSOLIDATED
STORM...BEGINNING WITH AN INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION FALLING AS
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FT. THE EC CONFIDENTLY
PLACES THIS PRECIP IN NORTHERN UTAH BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GFS SHOWS THE BULK OF ITS INITIAL PRECIP LIGHTING UP ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS SNOW
LEVELS DROP TO ABOUT 6000 FT.

ROUND TWO BLOSSOMS ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD CORE ARRIVES ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW AT 700MB. A CONFIDENT WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND FURTHER DROPPING TEMPERATURES ARRIVE IN THE SALT LAKE
VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT LIKELY TOO LATE FOR A SOLID CHANCE OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO AT LEAST VALLEY BENCH
LEVELS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE EC AND GFS PLACE LIKELY PRECIP
IN THE CORE REGION OF THE CWA...THOUGH PRIMARILY EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NE TO THE UINTA MOUNTAINS.

THE ACTION TAPERS MONDAY AS THE GFS SHOWS A BUILDING RIDGE WITH
ACCOMPANYING DRY WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPS BEGIN A SLOW
CLIMB...REACHING SEASONAL NORMS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...NO OPERATIONAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST
ABOUT 03Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGOWSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...VERZELLA

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