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000
FXUS65 KSLC 261626
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
927 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESIDE ACROSS UTAH
TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING A STORM
SYSTEM OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND AFFECT THE
REGION BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER OVER THE AREA AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. PATCHY FOG
STILL REPORTED IN THE CACHE VALLEY THIS MORNING BUT WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...HAZE LAYER ALONG URBAN
CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME REDUCTION
IN VISIBILITY.

AIRMASS VERY WARM ALOFT TODAY...WITH H7 TEMPERATURES 6-7C ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH...SLIGHTLY COOLER DOWN SOUTH. MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURE
WILL BE QUITE WARM...AND MANY VALLEYS WILL BE AS WELL DESPITE
INVERSIONS...SINCE SNOW COVER AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IS PRETTY MUCH
NONEXISTENT.

UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST CURRENTLY WILL START TO LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. WHILE THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN...EJECTING SHORTWAVE
WILL CROSS UTAH TOMORROW AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE STORM IS FINDING A DECENT MOISTURE TAP
RIGHT NOW...IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE COME TOMORROW AND ALL
MODELS NOW SHOWING LESS PRECIPITATION THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. LOOKING
LIKE A HIGH POP BUT LOW QPF EVENT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO UPDATES THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-20Z THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
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FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 261626
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
927 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESIDE ACROSS UTAH
TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING A STORM
SYSTEM OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND AFFECT THE
REGION BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER OVER THE AREA AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. PATCHY FOG
STILL REPORTED IN THE CACHE VALLEY THIS MORNING BUT WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...HAZE LAYER ALONG URBAN
CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME REDUCTION
IN VISIBILITY.

AIRMASS VERY WARM ALOFT TODAY...WITH H7 TEMPERATURES 6-7C ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH...SLIGHTLY COOLER DOWN SOUTH. MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURE
WILL BE QUITE WARM...AND MANY VALLEYS WILL BE AS WELL DESPITE
INVERSIONS...SINCE SNOW COVER AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IS PRETTY MUCH
NONEXISTENT.

UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST CURRENTLY WILL START TO LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. WHILE THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN...EJECTING SHORTWAVE
WILL CROSS UTAH TOMORROW AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE STORM IS FINDING A DECENT MOISTURE TAP
RIGHT NOW...IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE COME TOMORROW AND ALL
MODELS NOW SHOWING LESS PRECIPITATION THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. LOOKING
LIKE A HIGH POP BUT LOW QPF EVENT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO UPDATES THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-20Z THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 261626
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
927 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESIDE ACROSS UTAH
TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING A STORM
SYSTEM OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND AFFECT THE
REGION BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER OVER THE AREA AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. PATCHY FOG
STILL REPORTED IN THE CACHE VALLEY THIS MORNING BUT WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...HAZE LAYER ALONG URBAN
CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME REDUCTION
IN VISIBILITY.

AIRMASS VERY WARM ALOFT TODAY...WITH H7 TEMPERATURES 6-7C ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH...SLIGHTLY COOLER DOWN SOUTH. MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURE
WILL BE QUITE WARM...AND MANY VALLEYS WILL BE AS WELL DESPITE
INVERSIONS...SINCE SNOW COVER AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IS PRETTY MUCH
NONEXISTENT.

UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST CURRENTLY WILL START TO LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. WHILE THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN...EJECTING SHORTWAVE
WILL CROSS UTAH TOMORROW AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE STORM IS FINDING A DECENT MOISTURE TAP
RIGHT NOW...IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE COME TOMORROW AND ALL
MODELS NOW SHOWING LESS PRECIPITATION THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. LOOKING
LIKE A HIGH POP BUT LOW QPF EVENT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO UPDATES THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-20Z THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 261626
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
927 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESIDE ACROSS UTAH
TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING A STORM
SYSTEM OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND AFFECT THE
REGION BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER OVER THE AREA AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. PATCHY FOG
STILL REPORTED IN THE CACHE VALLEY THIS MORNING BUT WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...HAZE LAYER ALONG URBAN
CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME REDUCTION
IN VISIBILITY.

AIRMASS VERY WARM ALOFT TODAY...WITH H7 TEMPERATURES 6-7C ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH...SLIGHTLY COOLER DOWN SOUTH. MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURE
WILL BE QUITE WARM...AND MANY VALLEYS WILL BE AS WELL DESPITE
INVERSIONS...SINCE SNOW COVER AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IS PRETTY MUCH
NONEXISTENT.

UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST CURRENTLY WILL START TO LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. WHILE THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN...EJECTING SHORTWAVE
WILL CROSS UTAH TOMORROW AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE STORM IS FINDING A DECENT MOISTURE TAP
RIGHT NOW...IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE COME TOMORROW AND ALL
MODELS NOW SHOWING LESS PRECIPITATION THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. LOOKING
LIKE A HIGH POP BUT LOW QPF EVENT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO UPDATES THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-20Z THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 261137
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
437 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESIDE ACROSS UTAH
TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING A STORM
SYSTEM OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND AFFECT THE
REGION REGION BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)...A LARGE SCALE REX
BLOCK...CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS UT
COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF THE BAJA COAST...CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTER ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY THIS
MORNING. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS IS
RESULTING IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
ONLY PATCHY FOG NOTED AROUND THE BEAR LAKE AREA.

AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIRMASS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL SHIFT ACROSS NORTHERN UT THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING 700MB TEMPS
TO SOAR NEAR 7C BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WARMING WILL BE MOST
NOTABLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE ANTICIPATE TEMPS ACROSS MOST
VALLEYS TO RUN CLOSE TO SUNDAYS VALUES.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING ALLOWING THE BAJA LOW TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER
CO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
THIS LOW HAS TAPPED INTO DEEP MOISTURE...THIS TAP WILL QUICKLY
SHUT OFF TONIGHT AS THE WEAKENING LOW REACHES THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. WITH THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THE WAVE AND ERODING
MOISTURE FIELDS IT APPEARS PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED WITH
THIS WAVE THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A WEAKENING ARC OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION LIFTS NORTHWARD INITIALLY INTO SOUTHWEST UT OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN UT
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HAVE SLOWED PRECIP TIMING A BIT BASED ON
CONSENSUS OF 00Z GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN VALLEYS WHICH WILL BE A BIT TOO FAR REMOVED FROM THE
BETTER UPPER FORCING.

WHATS LEFT OF THE UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO TURN EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN UT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
WITH 700MB TEMPS REMAINING IN THE -4 TO -5C RANGE SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOORS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP COMING NORTH OF I-80.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z THU)...00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO AGREE IN THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LATE WEEK...BUT DETAILS
DIVERGE IN EVOLUTION/PLACEMENT OF THE RETURN OF A REX BLOCK ACROSS
THE WEST. WHERE...AND TO SOME EXTENT WHEN...YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/BAJA REGIONS REMAINS THE
PRIMARY FACTOR REGARDING AREAL EXTENT AND SIGNIFICANCE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MODELS AGREE THAT A STRONG MID LEVEL MOISTURE TAP WILL ONCE AGAIN
OCCUR W/YET ANOTHER ORIGIN FROM THE ITCZ. MOISTURE IS NOT A PROBLEM
W/THIS SYSTEM RATHER THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LOWS
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE A DICTATING FACTOR REGARDING BEST FORCING
OF A POTENTIALLY VERY MOIST AIRMASS. ECMWF DEPICTS THIS LOW CENTER
CLOSER TO THE SOCAL/WESTERN AZ BORDER AS UPSTREAM RIDGING BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED FROM THE PACNW/BRITCOL REGION THAN THAT DEPICTED IN
THE GFS. THIS ALLOWS A MORE FOCUSED DEFORMATION ZONE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN UTAH THAT WILL SLOWLY PULL SOUTH AS THE LOW CENTER
TRANSITIONS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. GFS IS A BIT FURTHER EAST
W/RESULTANT QPF MORE PROLIFIC FROM SW COLORADO ON INTO FAR EASTERN
AZ AND POINTS EAST COINCIDENT W/BEST LARGE SCALE LIFT FOCUSED THERE.
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN DETAIL HAS NOT BEEN OVERLY CONSISTENT IN
EITHER MODEL SO NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE IS LACKING IN EITHER
SOLUTION. THIS SAID...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HEALTHY PRECIP PRODUCER
WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST. MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO POPS OUTSIDE OF SLIGHT TRENDS
TOWARDS A REFINED BLEND BETWEEN THESE TWO. LIKELY WILL NOT SEE
IMPROVED CONSISTENCY UNTIL THE EARLY WEEK WAVE IN THE SHORT
TERM PASSES DOWNSTREAM.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AS
THE REX TRANSITIONS OVERHEAD SATURDAY...THIS BRINGING AN END TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED PRECIP THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MINIMAL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL TODAY. A STRENGTHENING OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL BE ENHANCING LOW LEVEL HAZE WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
HIGH END MVFR VIS AT TIMES OF LOW SUN ANGLE AND OR DURING THE
NIGHTTIME PERIOD...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH 03Z. MVFR VIS IN HAZE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE LIKELY AFTER
03Z THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

&&

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 260426
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
926 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CENTER OVER UTAH
MONDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE ON
TUESDAY...ALLOWING A STORM SYSTEM OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO
MOVE NORTH AND IMPACT MUCH OF THE STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z THURSDAY)...THE CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER
RIDGE ENCOMPASSING THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CENTER ACROSS UTAH ON
MONDAY. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE EAST...WITH THE AXIS OF THE
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

THE WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL LIFT NORTH BEHIND THE EXITING RIDGE ON MONDAY.
THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY OPEN UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
TAPPED BY THIS LOW WILL STREAM NORTH INTO UTAH AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING LOW. LIGHT SHOWERS COULD REACH INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH AS
EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING...WITH BETTER ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD
VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NOW OPEN WAVE
TROUGH REACHES SOUTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHWEST UTAH.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN WITH THE REMNANT OF THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH WESTERN UTAH
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TURN HEAVIER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE TO THE WEST AND BRING THE LAST OF THE TROUGH
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH.

WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT SUPPORTED BY MODEST COOLING ALOFT AND A MOISTURE
SOURCE ORIGINATING IN THE TROPICS ALL SUGGEST A WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT WITH AMOUNTS APPROACHING .40 TO .60 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE ECMWF
SOLUTION ON QPFS...THOUGH SUSPECT MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
WILL BE A LITTLE LOW BASED ON THE AIR MASS IN PLAY. LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH BEHIND THE EXITING
WEAK TROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.



&&

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...IT APPEARS PRECIP
SHUTS DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY WED EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND FOLLOWING WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGE MOVING IN OVERHEAD.

THE NEXT WEAK LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE ERN PAC BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW CREATE DISAGREEMENT ON THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIP FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE.
THE 12Z EC MOVED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER BY 12Z
FRI AND SPREADS PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THAT RETREATS SLOWLY
SOUTH THRU SAT NIGHT AS THE LOW SINKS S. THE GFS REMAINS FARTHER
SOUTH INITIALLY AND KEEPS PRECIP OUT OF THE FAR NORTH...THEN
SHIFTS IT SWD FASTER.

BOTH MODELS DO END UP WITH THE LOW FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR THE THREAT
OF PRECIP TO END ACROSS THE CWA BY 00Z MON WITH DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

EXPECT THESE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WILL NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL WE GET A
FEW DAYS CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME SO HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE
AND HEDGED THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS THRU SUN. IF THE
EC IS RIGHT THERE MIGHT BE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WATER AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE CWA FROM THIS EVENT.

THE OTHER ELEMENT IN THE FORECAST WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LOCALLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE EAST WIND EVENT ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT SAT
MORNING. MAGNITUDE DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE CLOSED LOW IS BY
12Z SAT WITH THE FARTHER NORTH EC DEPICTING THE STRONGER EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 05Z AND 06Z. URBAN HAZE COULD BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES
TO BETWEEN 5 AND 6 MILES UNTIL THE SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME
ESTABLISHED AT THE TERMINAL. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CONGER
LONG TERM...WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 260426
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
926 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CENTER OVER UTAH
MONDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE ON
TUESDAY...ALLOWING A STORM SYSTEM OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO
MOVE NORTH AND IMPACT MUCH OF THE STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z THURSDAY)...THE CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER
RIDGE ENCOMPASSING THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CENTER ACROSS UTAH ON
MONDAY. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE EAST...WITH THE AXIS OF THE
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

THE WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL LIFT NORTH BEHIND THE EXITING RIDGE ON MONDAY.
THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY OPEN UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
TAPPED BY THIS LOW WILL STREAM NORTH INTO UTAH AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING LOW. LIGHT SHOWERS COULD REACH INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH AS
EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING...WITH BETTER ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD
VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NOW OPEN WAVE
TROUGH REACHES SOUTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHWEST UTAH.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN WITH THE REMNANT OF THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH WESTERN UTAH
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TURN HEAVIER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE TO THE WEST AND BRING THE LAST OF THE TROUGH
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH.

WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT SUPPORTED BY MODEST COOLING ALOFT AND A MOISTURE
SOURCE ORIGINATING IN THE TROPICS ALL SUGGEST A WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT WITH AMOUNTS APPROACHING .40 TO .60 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE ECMWF
SOLUTION ON QPFS...THOUGH SUSPECT MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
WILL BE A LITTLE LOW BASED ON THE AIR MASS IN PLAY. LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH BEHIND THE EXITING
WEAK TROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.



&&

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...IT APPEARS PRECIP
SHUTS DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY WED EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND FOLLOWING WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGE MOVING IN OVERHEAD.

THE NEXT WEAK LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE ERN PAC BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW CREATE DISAGREEMENT ON THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIP FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE.
THE 12Z EC MOVED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER BY 12Z
FRI AND SPREADS PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THAT RETREATS SLOWLY
SOUTH THRU SAT NIGHT AS THE LOW SINKS S. THE GFS REMAINS FARTHER
SOUTH INITIALLY AND KEEPS PRECIP OUT OF THE FAR NORTH...THEN
SHIFTS IT SWD FASTER.

BOTH MODELS DO END UP WITH THE LOW FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR THE THREAT
OF PRECIP TO END ACROSS THE CWA BY 00Z MON WITH DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

EXPECT THESE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WILL NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL WE GET A
FEW DAYS CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME SO HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE
AND HEDGED THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS THRU SUN. IF THE
EC IS RIGHT THERE MIGHT BE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WATER AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE CWA FROM THIS EVENT.

THE OTHER ELEMENT IN THE FORECAST WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LOCALLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE EAST WIND EVENT ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT SAT
MORNING. MAGNITUDE DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE CLOSED LOW IS BY
12Z SAT WITH THE FARTHER NORTH EC DEPICTING THE STRONGER EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 05Z AND 06Z. URBAN HAZE COULD BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES
TO BETWEEN 5 AND 6 MILES UNTIL THE SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME
ESTABLISHED AT THE TERMINAL. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CONGER
LONG TERM...WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 260426
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
926 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CENTER OVER UTAH
MONDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE ON
TUESDAY...ALLOWING A STORM SYSTEM OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO
MOVE NORTH AND IMPACT MUCH OF THE STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z THURSDAY)...THE CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER
RIDGE ENCOMPASSING THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CENTER ACROSS UTAH ON
MONDAY. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE EAST...WITH THE AXIS OF THE
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

THE WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL LIFT NORTH BEHIND THE EXITING RIDGE ON MONDAY.
THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY OPEN UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
TAPPED BY THIS LOW WILL STREAM NORTH INTO UTAH AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING LOW. LIGHT SHOWERS COULD REACH INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH AS
EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING...WITH BETTER ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD
VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NOW OPEN WAVE
TROUGH REACHES SOUTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHWEST UTAH.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN WITH THE REMNANT OF THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH WESTERN UTAH
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TURN HEAVIER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE TO THE WEST AND BRING THE LAST OF THE TROUGH
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH.

WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT SUPPORTED BY MODEST COOLING ALOFT AND A MOISTURE
SOURCE ORIGINATING IN THE TROPICS ALL SUGGEST A WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT WITH AMOUNTS APPROACHING .40 TO .60 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE ECMWF
SOLUTION ON QPFS...THOUGH SUSPECT MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
WILL BE A LITTLE LOW BASED ON THE AIR MASS IN PLAY. LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH BEHIND THE EXITING
WEAK TROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.



&&

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...IT APPEARS PRECIP
SHUTS DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY WED EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND FOLLOWING WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGE MOVING IN OVERHEAD.

THE NEXT WEAK LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE ERN PAC BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW CREATE DISAGREEMENT ON THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIP FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE.
THE 12Z EC MOVED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER BY 12Z
FRI AND SPREADS PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THAT RETREATS SLOWLY
SOUTH THRU SAT NIGHT AS THE LOW SINKS S. THE GFS REMAINS FARTHER
SOUTH INITIALLY AND KEEPS PRECIP OUT OF THE FAR NORTH...THEN
SHIFTS IT SWD FASTER.

BOTH MODELS DO END UP WITH THE LOW FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR THE THREAT
OF PRECIP TO END ACROSS THE CWA BY 00Z MON WITH DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

EXPECT THESE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WILL NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL WE GET A
FEW DAYS CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME SO HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE
AND HEDGED THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS THRU SUN. IF THE
EC IS RIGHT THERE MIGHT BE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WATER AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE CWA FROM THIS EVENT.

THE OTHER ELEMENT IN THE FORECAST WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LOCALLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE EAST WIND EVENT ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT SAT
MORNING. MAGNITUDE DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE CLOSED LOW IS BY
12Z SAT WITH THE FARTHER NORTH EC DEPICTING THE STRONGER EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 05Z AND 06Z. URBAN HAZE COULD BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES
TO BETWEEN 5 AND 6 MILES UNTIL THE SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME
ESTABLISHED AT THE TERMINAL. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CONGER
LONG TERM...WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 260426
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
926 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CENTER OVER UTAH
MONDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE ON
TUESDAY...ALLOWING A STORM SYSTEM OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO
MOVE NORTH AND IMPACT MUCH OF THE STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z THURSDAY)...THE CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER
RIDGE ENCOMPASSING THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CENTER ACROSS UTAH ON
MONDAY. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE EAST...WITH THE AXIS OF THE
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

THE WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL LIFT NORTH BEHIND THE EXITING RIDGE ON MONDAY.
THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY OPEN UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
TAPPED BY THIS LOW WILL STREAM NORTH INTO UTAH AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING LOW. LIGHT SHOWERS COULD REACH INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH AS
EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING...WITH BETTER ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD
VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NOW OPEN WAVE
TROUGH REACHES SOUTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHWEST UTAH.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN WITH THE REMNANT OF THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH WESTERN UTAH
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TURN HEAVIER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE TO THE WEST AND BRING THE LAST OF THE TROUGH
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH.

WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT SUPPORTED BY MODEST COOLING ALOFT AND A MOISTURE
SOURCE ORIGINATING IN THE TROPICS ALL SUGGEST A WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT WITH AMOUNTS APPROACHING .40 TO .60 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE ECMWF
SOLUTION ON QPFS...THOUGH SUSPECT MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
WILL BE A LITTLE LOW BASED ON THE AIR MASS IN PLAY. LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH BEHIND THE EXITING
WEAK TROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.



&&

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...IT APPEARS PRECIP
SHUTS DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY WED EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND FOLLOWING WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGE MOVING IN OVERHEAD.

THE NEXT WEAK LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE ERN PAC BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW CREATE DISAGREEMENT ON THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIP FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE.
THE 12Z EC MOVED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER BY 12Z
FRI AND SPREADS PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THAT RETREATS SLOWLY
SOUTH THRU SAT NIGHT AS THE LOW SINKS S. THE GFS REMAINS FARTHER
SOUTH INITIALLY AND KEEPS PRECIP OUT OF THE FAR NORTH...THEN
SHIFTS IT SWD FASTER.

BOTH MODELS DO END UP WITH THE LOW FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR THE THREAT
OF PRECIP TO END ACROSS THE CWA BY 00Z MON WITH DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

EXPECT THESE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WILL NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL WE GET A
FEW DAYS CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME SO HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE
AND HEDGED THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS THRU SUN. IF THE
EC IS RIGHT THERE MIGHT BE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WATER AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE CWA FROM THIS EVENT.

THE OTHER ELEMENT IN THE FORECAST WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LOCALLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE EAST WIND EVENT ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT SAT
MORNING. MAGNITUDE DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE CLOSED LOW IS BY
12Z SAT WITH THE FARTHER NORTH EC DEPICTING THE STRONGER EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 05Z AND 06Z. URBAN HAZE COULD BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES
TO BETWEEN 5 AND 6 MILES UNTIL THE SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME
ESTABLISHED AT THE TERMINAL. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CONGER
LONG TERM...WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 252243
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
343 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
STATES THROUGH TOMORROW. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.



&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE HAS
SHIFTED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MUCH
WARMER THAN TYPICAL TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. ONLY AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE UTAH/IDAHO
BORDER ARE STILL EXPERIENCING DENSE STRATUS AS OF 22Z...WITH SOME
PASSING CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF EASTERN UTAH. TONIGHT
WILL LIKELY BE COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH...AS THERE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER...BUT SUNNY SKIES
AND A WARM AIRMASS WILL LIKELY ALLOW MONDAYS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB IN A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR FASHION TO TODAY. IN OTHER
WORDS...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
MONDAY.

AFTER THE RIDGE SHIFTS OVER COLORADO THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...A
PACIFIC LOW BRINGS TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE
SOUTH ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE
WILL PRIMARILY MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA...BUT
SOUTHWESTERN UTAH STILL HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST SOME
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS BEGIN
TO MIGRATE INTO NORTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...BUT COULD BE HIT-OR-MISS ACROSS UTAH IF THE MODELS TREND
ANY FURTHER WESTWARD WITH THIS WAVE.

THE LOW OPENS UP CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES THROUGH NEVADA...THEN
SLIDES THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH AS A FAIRLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE...EARLY WEDNESDAY COULD BE THE MOST PRODUCTIVE PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. BY THIS
TIME...SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO ABOUT 6000 FEET...AND
THIS PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING WOULD PROBABLY BE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR STEADY MODERATE SNOWFALL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PRECIP WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS
PROGRESSES TO THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THU)...IT APPEARS PRECIP SHUTS DOWN FAIRLY
QUICKLY WED NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROF AND
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD.

THE NEXT WEAK LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE ERN PAC BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW CREATE DISAGREEMENT ON THE NWD
EXTENT OF THE PRECIP FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. THE 12Z EC
MOVED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER BY 12Z FRI AND
SPREADS PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THAT RETREATS SLOWLY SOUTH
THRU SAT NIGHT AS THE LOW SINKS S. THE GFS REMAINS FARTHER SOUTH
INITIALLY AND KEEPS PRECIP OUT OF THE FAR NORTH...THEN SHIFTS IT SWD
FASTER.

BOTH MODELS DO END UP WITH THE LOW FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR THE THREAT
OF PRECIP TO END ACROSS THE CWA BY 00Z MON WITH DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

EXPECT THESE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WILL NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL WE GET A
FEW DAYS CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME SO HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE
AND HEDGED THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS THRU SUN. IF THE
EC IS RIGHT THERE MIGHT BE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WATER AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE CWA FROM THIS EVENT.

THE OTHER ELEMENT IN THE FORECAST WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LOCALLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE EAST WIND EVENT ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT SAT
MORNING. MAGNITUDE DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE CLOSED LOW IS BY
12Z SAT WITH THE FARTHER NORTH EC DEPICTING THE STRONGER EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 02-04Z.
OTHERWISE...OCCASIONAL REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HAZE WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHOENING
LONG TERM...WILENSKY
AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 252243
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
343 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
STATES THROUGH TOMORROW. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.



&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE HAS
SHIFTED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MUCH
WARMER THAN TYPICAL TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. ONLY AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE UTAH/IDAHO
BORDER ARE STILL EXPERIENCING DENSE STRATUS AS OF 22Z...WITH SOME
PASSING CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF EASTERN UTAH. TONIGHT
WILL LIKELY BE COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH...AS THERE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER...BUT SUNNY SKIES
AND A WARM AIRMASS WILL LIKELY ALLOW MONDAYS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB IN A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR FASHION TO TODAY. IN OTHER
WORDS...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
MONDAY.

AFTER THE RIDGE SHIFTS OVER COLORADO THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...A
PACIFIC LOW BRINGS TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE
SOUTH ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE
WILL PRIMARILY MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA...BUT
SOUTHWESTERN UTAH STILL HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST SOME
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS BEGIN
TO MIGRATE INTO NORTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...BUT COULD BE HIT-OR-MISS ACROSS UTAH IF THE MODELS TREND
ANY FURTHER WESTWARD WITH THIS WAVE.

THE LOW OPENS UP CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES THROUGH NEVADA...THEN
SLIDES THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH AS A FAIRLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE...EARLY WEDNESDAY COULD BE THE MOST PRODUCTIVE PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. BY THIS
TIME...SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO ABOUT 6000 FEET...AND
THIS PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING WOULD PROBABLY BE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR STEADY MODERATE SNOWFALL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PRECIP WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS
PROGRESSES TO THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THU)...IT APPEARS PRECIP SHUTS DOWN FAIRLY
QUICKLY WED NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROF AND
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD.

THE NEXT WEAK LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE ERN PAC BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW CREATE DISAGREEMENT ON THE NWD
EXTENT OF THE PRECIP FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. THE 12Z EC
MOVED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER BY 12Z FRI AND
SPREADS PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THAT RETREATS SLOWLY SOUTH
THRU SAT NIGHT AS THE LOW SINKS S. THE GFS REMAINS FARTHER SOUTH
INITIALLY AND KEEPS PRECIP OUT OF THE FAR NORTH...THEN SHIFTS IT SWD
FASTER.

BOTH MODELS DO END UP WITH THE LOW FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR THE THREAT
OF PRECIP TO END ACROSS THE CWA BY 00Z MON WITH DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

EXPECT THESE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WILL NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL WE GET A
FEW DAYS CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME SO HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE
AND HEDGED THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS THRU SUN. IF THE
EC IS RIGHT THERE MIGHT BE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WATER AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE CWA FROM THIS EVENT.

THE OTHER ELEMENT IN THE FORECAST WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LOCALLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE EAST WIND EVENT ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT SAT
MORNING. MAGNITUDE DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE CLOSED LOW IS BY
12Z SAT WITH THE FARTHER NORTH EC DEPICTING THE STRONGER EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 02-04Z.
OTHERWISE...OCCASIONAL REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HAZE WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHOENING
LONG TERM...WILENSKY
AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 251718
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1018 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
STATES THROUGH TOMORROW. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL
SHIFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH TODAY...LEADING TO DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. SOME LOW
STRATUS IS STILL LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH AND
UINTA COUNTY WY...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY
DUE TO DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...WITH SUNNY SKIES
DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STORM COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS FINE...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO
WATCH MODEL TRENDS TO SEE EXACTLY HOW FAR WEST THE LOW
TRACKS...WITH SOME CONCERN THAT THE BEST FORCING MOSTLY HUGS THE
UTAH/NEVADA BORDER.

UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER TO TWEAK SKY COVER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST COULD BE TOO LOW IN SOME
LOCATIONS...BUT CURRENT GUIDANCE IS ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
THAN ONGOING FORECAST. MAY UPDATE IF QUICK WARMING TRENDS CONTINUE
THROUGH NOONTIME.

&&

.AVIATION...THE STRATUS LAYER FROM EARLIER HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED
OVER THE SLC TERMINAL...THOUGH A BRIEF RETURN TO A CEILING AROUND
5000 FEET AGL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN
18-20Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 251718
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1018 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
STATES THROUGH TOMORROW. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL
SHIFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH TODAY...LEADING TO DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. SOME LOW
STRATUS IS STILL LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH AND
UINTA COUNTY WY...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY
DUE TO DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...WITH SUNNY SKIES
DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STORM COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS FINE...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO
WATCH MODEL TRENDS TO SEE EXACTLY HOW FAR WEST THE LOW
TRACKS...WITH SOME CONCERN THAT THE BEST FORCING MOSTLY HUGS THE
UTAH/NEVADA BORDER.

UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER TO TWEAK SKY COVER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST COULD BE TOO LOW IN SOME
LOCATIONS...BUT CURRENT GUIDANCE IS ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
THAN ONGOING FORECAST. MAY UPDATE IF QUICK WARMING TRENDS CONTINUE
THROUGH NOONTIME.

&&

.AVIATION...THE STRATUS LAYER FROM EARLIER HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED
OVER THE SLC TERMINAL...THOUGH A BRIEF RETURN TO A CEILING AROUND
5000 FEET AGL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN
18-20Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 251035
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
335 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
STATES THROUGH TOMORROW. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF OF BAJA. AMDAR
400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A 125-160KT ANTICYCLONIC JET
FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES
BETWEEN 0.15-0.25" MOUNTAINS...TO 0.30-0.50" MOST VALLEYS. BLENDED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT INDICATES VALUES MUCH BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...WITH A MOISTURE TAP INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.

RIDGETOP TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY.
WITH RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATING...EXPECT INVERTED
CONDITIONS TO INTENSIFY. STATUS WHICH BUILT IN ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST YESTERDAY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING PER RAP 850-700MB DRYING DEPICTION AS THE
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS INTO IDAHO.

NOT A LOT OF VALLEY SNOW COVER SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. AIR QUALITY ON THE OTHER HAND EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. KEPT MENTION OF HAZE INTO THE
URBAN CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFORMENTIONED CLOSED LOW IS DEPICTED TO LIFT ALONG THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTS
NORTHWARD AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. EJECTING WEAKENING WAVES
WITHIN DIFFLUENT FLOW LIKELY TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH MONDAY NIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS WOULD SEE
RAIN...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 7-8KFT.

MOISTURE EXPECTED TO GRUDALLY DIMINISH AS IT PROPAGATES NORTH ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY. BY AFTERNOON...SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATE
DESTAILIZATION...AND WITH MOISTURE REGIEME KEPT MENTION OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE STATE. SNOW LEVELS LARGELY UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE DAY.

THE REMNANT CIRCULATION CENTER OVER NORTHEAST NEVADA LATE TUESDAY IS
SHOWN TO CROSS NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION GIVEN BETTER ORGANIZATION TO THE DYNAMICS...AND COOL
ADVECTION. SNOW LEVELS WILL START TO LOWER TOWARD 6KFT AS MORE OF AN
ORAGRAPHIC WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z WED)...
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE OPEN WAVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL BECOME MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE
WED MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES ITS EASTERLY
DOWNSTREAM TRAJECTORY. HAVE UPPED POPS ALONG THE WASATCH
FRONT/SPINE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR CONTINUED
OROGRAPHIC PRECIP IN A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AND QUITE MOIST WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS SUCH...THOUGH BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE WANING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE
ECMWF/GEM OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS REGARDING THIS THUS CONFIDENCE
HAS INCREASED. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR 6000FT PER GUIDANCE
AND PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE/MORE FAVORABLE FLOW WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS ABOVE THIS ELEVATION WED
MORNING.

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM SHIFTS TO THE PLACEMENT/EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT
CLOSED LOW TO FORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC...AND ITS
INTERACTION W/THE STILL ELEVATED PW ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
AND ANY NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS
REGARDING THIS AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE
ELONGATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST FROM ITS CENTER AS SUGGESTED IN MOST
GLOBAL GUIDANCE OUTPUT. BOTTOM LINE...CONFIDENCE IN DETAIL IS LOW
ATTM.

THE MORE INLAND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW CENTER DEPICTED BY THE
GFS...ESPECIALLY THE 18Z RUN...DRAPED A STRONGER MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH BEGINNING THU NIGHT AND
SOME ADDITIONAL INTERACTION W/A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE. THE
ASSOCIATED QPF REFLECTED THAT AND APPEARED TO BE A HIGH END FORECAST
AND OUTLIER. SUBSEQUENT RUNS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
W/THE LOW CENTER...LESS NORTHERN BRANCH INFLUENCE AND QPF HAS
TRENDED MORE MODEST. THE ECMWF STILL DEPICTS A DEFORMATION FORMING
ACROSS NEARLY THE SAME AREA BUT A FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST PLACEMENT
OF THE LOW CENTER DIMINISHES LOCAL FORCING FURTHER WITH QPF
DECREASING AS SUCH. CONFIDENCE IN THE BIG PICTURE REGARDING THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS QUITE HIGH REGARDING THIS LOW AND A
DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE TO ITS NORTH AND EAST...BUT
ITS OVERALL SIGNIFICANCE LOCAL TO OUR AREA REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

REGARDING POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...FOCUSED ABOVE CLIMO POPS FROM
ROUGHLY SLC SOUTH THROUGH DELTA THU NIGHT WHERE GUIDANCE HAS MORE
OFTEN THAN NOT PLACED THE DEFORMATION. TRANSITIONED THIS ZONE SOUTH
FRI-SAT DUE TO FORCING DEPICTED TO BECOME MORE TIGHTLY BOUND TO THE
LOW CLOSING OFF MORE AGGRESSIVELY OVER THE BAJA REGION OVER TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE KSLC TERMINAL
THIS MORNING WITH CIGS HOVERING BETWEEN 3-4000 FT AGL. ADDED SOLAR
INPUT COMBINED WITH A NET DRYING TREND SHOULD ALLOW THESE CIGS TO
SCATTER OUT BETWEEN 20-23Z THIS AFTERNOON BUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
EXISTS THAT LOW CIGS WILL REMAIN INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A PREVAILING NORTHWEST BETWEEN
19-21Z...BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 7 KNOTS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGOWSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...MERRILL

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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 251035
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
335 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
STATES THROUGH TOMORROW. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF OF BAJA. AMDAR
400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A 125-160KT ANTICYCLONIC JET
FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES
BETWEEN 0.15-0.25" MOUNTAINS...TO 0.30-0.50" MOST VALLEYS. BLENDED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT INDICATES VALUES MUCH BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...WITH A MOISTURE TAP INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.

RIDGETOP TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY.
WITH RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATING...EXPECT INVERTED
CONDITIONS TO INTENSIFY. STATUS WHICH BUILT IN ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST YESTERDAY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING PER RAP 850-700MB DRYING DEPICTION AS THE
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS INTO IDAHO.

NOT A LOT OF VALLEY SNOW COVER SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. AIR QUALITY ON THE OTHER HAND EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. KEPT MENTION OF HAZE INTO THE
URBAN CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFORMENTIONED CLOSED LOW IS DEPICTED TO LIFT ALONG THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTS
NORTHWARD AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. EJECTING WEAKENING WAVES
WITHIN DIFFLUENT FLOW LIKELY TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH MONDAY NIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS WOULD SEE
RAIN...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 7-8KFT.

MOISTURE EXPECTED TO GRUDALLY DIMINISH AS IT PROPAGATES NORTH ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY. BY AFTERNOON...SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATE
DESTAILIZATION...AND WITH MOISTURE REGIEME KEPT MENTION OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE STATE. SNOW LEVELS LARGELY UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE DAY.

THE REMNANT CIRCULATION CENTER OVER NORTHEAST NEVADA LATE TUESDAY IS
SHOWN TO CROSS NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION GIVEN BETTER ORGANIZATION TO THE DYNAMICS...AND COOL
ADVECTION. SNOW LEVELS WILL START TO LOWER TOWARD 6KFT AS MORE OF AN
ORAGRAPHIC WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z WED)...
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE OPEN WAVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL BECOME MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE
WED MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES ITS EASTERLY
DOWNSTREAM TRAJECTORY. HAVE UPPED POPS ALONG THE WASATCH
FRONT/SPINE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR CONTINUED
OROGRAPHIC PRECIP IN A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AND QUITE MOIST WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS SUCH...THOUGH BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE WANING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE
ECMWF/GEM OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS REGARDING THIS THUS CONFIDENCE
HAS INCREASED. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR 6000FT PER GUIDANCE
AND PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE/MORE FAVORABLE FLOW WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS ABOVE THIS ELEVATION WED
MORNING.

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM SHIFTS TO THE PLACEMENT/EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT
CLOSED LOW TO FORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC...AND ITS
INTERACTION W/THE STILL ELEVATED PW ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
AND ANY NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS
REGARDING THIS AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE
ELONGATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST FROM ITS CENTER AS SUGGESTED IN MOST
GLOBAL GUIDANCE OUTPUT. BOTTOM LINE...CONFIDENCE IN DETAIL IS LOW
ATTM.

THE MORE INLAND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW CENTER DEPICTED BY THE
GFS...ESPECIALLY THE 18Z RUN...DRAPED A STRONGER MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH BEGINNING THU NIGHT AND
SOME ADDITIONAL INTERACTION W/A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE. THE
ASSOCIATED QPF REFLECTED THAT AND APPEARED TO BE A HIGH END FORECAST
AND OUTLIER. SUBSEQUENT RUNS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
W/THE LOW CENTER...LESS NORTHERN BRANCH INFLUENCE AND QPF HAS
TRENDED MORE MODEST. THE ECMWF STILL DEPICTS A DEFORMATION FORMING
ACROSS NEARLY THE SAME AREA BUT A FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST PLACEMENT
OF THE LOW CENTER DIMINISHES LOCAL FORCING FURTHER WITH QPF
DECREASING AS SUCH. CONFIDENCE IN THE BIG PICTURE REGARDING THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS QUITE HIGH REGARDING THIS LOW AND A
DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE TO ITS NORTH AND EAST...BUT
ITS OVERALL SIGNIFICANCE LOCAL TO OUR AREA REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

REGARDING POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...FOCUSED ABOVE CLIMO POPS FROM
ROUGHLY SLC SOUTH THROUGH DELTA THU NIGHT WHERE GUIDANCE HAS MORE
OFTEN THAN NOT PLACED THE DEFORMATION. TRANSITIONED THIS ZONE SOUTH
FRI-SAT DUE TO FORCING DEPICTED TO BECOME MORE TIGHTLY BOUND TO THE
LOW CLOSING OFF MORE AGGRESSIVELY OVER THE BAJA REGION OVER TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE KSLC TERMINAL
THIS MORNING WITH CIGS HOVERING BETWEEN 3-4000 FT AGL. ADDED SOLAR
INPUT COMBINED WITH A NET DRYING TREND SHOULD ALLOW THESE CIGS TO
SCATTER OUT BETWEEN 20-23Z THIS AFTERNOON BUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
EXISTS THAT LOW CIGS WILL REMAIN INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A PREVAILING NORTHWEST BETWEEN
19-21Z...BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 7 KNOTS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGOWSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 250521
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1021 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN FOR SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
RIDGE AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTHERN UTAH THIS EVENING. A SOLID AREA OF LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD WILL COVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
HAVE ISSUED AN EARLIER UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND TO BOOST
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WHERE THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS SHIFT IN THE RIDGE POSITION WILL
ALLOW THE WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR CENTRAL BAJA TO
LIFT NORTHEAST AS AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH THE BASIN BY TUESDAY. WHAT
WILL MAKE THIS AN INTERESTING FEATURE IS THE MOISTURE TAP FROM
THE TROPICS. PWAT VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL RUN
ABOUT 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE WITH THE NOW OPEN WAVE OVER
SOUTHWEST UTAH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS INITIAL PRECIP SHOULD BE FAIRLY
WELL ORGANIZED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...THEN BECOME LESS WELL PUT
TOGETHER AS IT LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE. THE MORE ACTIVE
AREA FOR PRECIP WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO WEST ACROSS NEVADA TUESDAY.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH WILL TAKE A TURN TO THE EAST AND
RIPPLE THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WEAK FEATURE WORKING ON A MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE GENERATE WIDESPREAD VALLEY
RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING. MODEL QPFS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE
GENERALLY SHOWING AN HALF INCH OR LESS LIQUID...THOUGH SUSPECT
THESE NUMBERS ARE LOW BASED ON THE AIR MASS IN PLAY.

&&

.AVIATION...THE EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH
WILL MAINTAIN CEILINGS NEAR 4000 FEET THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THESE CEILING WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP LATER SUNDAY
MORNING...LEAVING SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED NEAR 5000 FEET. LIGHT
WEST WINDS AT 05Z WILL GRADUALLY COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW 6 KNOTS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CONGER

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 242306
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
406 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.



&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)...UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
ARE BETWEEN TWO MAJOR FEATURES THIS AFTERNOON...A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST...AND A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.
THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA INTO A RELATIVELY MILD NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW...WITH SOME CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK HAS MOVED
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE DISSIPATING SUNDAY MORNING.

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON
SUNDAY...AND THEN OVER THE ROCKIES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES BECOME QUITE WARM DURING THIS PERIOD OF TIME...WITH
700MB TEMPERATURES LIKELY RISING TO THE 4-6 DEGREE CELSIUS RANGE.
EVEN WITH SOME WEAK INVERSIONS OR ISOTHERMAL SOUNDINGS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER THAN SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE CWA.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY...AND THIS ALLOWS
A PACIFIC LOW TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
GREAT BASIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WITH THIS LOW
IS QUITE MOIST...SO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND DECENT COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY...EVEN IF THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS
WEST OF THE CWA. HAVE GENERALLY INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING
THIS MOISTURE THROUGH THE AREA WITH AT LEAST SOME WEAK FORCING.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WED)...THE WEAKENING REMAINS OF THE TROPICAL
ERN PAC CLOSED LOW ARE FORECAST TO CROSS THE NRN CWA TUE NIGHT AS A
VERY MOIST BUT WEAK OPEN WAVE. ABUNDANT MOISTURE PLUS WEAK DYNAMICS
SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH. MOST OF IT
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT THAT
COULD RESULT IN MODEST WATER AMOUNTS FOR THE WASATCH FRONT AND
ADJACENT MTNS. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE AROUND 6000 FT AND ACCUMULATION
COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON TRAVEL ABOVE THAT LEVEL
WED MORNING.

THIS WAVE SHIFTS EAST WED AND PRECIP TAPERS OFF ALTHO SOME MOISTURE
IS LEFT BEHIND. A NEW LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE SUBTROPICAL ERN
PAC AND SPREADS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE SWRN STATES STARTING
THU. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH HOW THIS MOISTURE INTERACTS
WITH A WEAK WAVE COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE ERN PAC RIDGE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE 12Z GFS HAD A STRONGER WAVE AND WAS MUCH WETTER THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A RESULT. THE EC AND NEW 18Z GFS HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER WAVE AND WERE NOT QUITE AS GENEROUS WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS BUT
HAVE MORE MOISTURE OVER THE CWA THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT THAN
EARLIER RUNS. SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN CLIMO POPS
FOR THIS TIME FRAME BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW ON HOW THIS
PATTERN WILL ACTUALLY EVOLVE.

BOTH MODELS DO PUSH THE MOISTURE OFF TO THE SOUTH STARTING SAT AND
FOLLOWED THIS DRYING TREND IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH 02-04Z. CEILINGS NEAR 5000 FEET AGL WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 12Z OR SO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHOENING
LONG TERM...WILENSKY
AVIATION...KRUSE

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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 242306
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
406 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.



&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)...UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
ARE BETWEEN TWO MAJOR FEATURES THIS AFTERNOON...A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST...AND A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.
THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA INTO A RELATIVELY MILD NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW...WITH SOME CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK HAS MOVED
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE DISSIPATING SUNDAY MORNING.

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON
SUNDAY...AND THEN OVER THE ROCKIES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES BECOME QUITE WARM DURING THIS PERIOD OF TIME...WITH
700MB TEMPERATURES LIKELY RISING TO THE 4-6 DEGREE CELSIUS RANGE.
EVEN WITH SOME WEAK INVERSIONS OR ISOTHERMAL SOUNDINGS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER THAN SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE CWA.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY...AND THIS ALLOWS
A PACIFIC LOW TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
GREAT BASIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WITH THIS LOW
IS QUITE MOIST...SO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND DECENT COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY...EVEN IF THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS
WEST OF THE CWA. HAVE GENERALLY INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING
THIS MOISTURE THROUGH THE AREA WITH AT LEAST SOME WEAK FORCING.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WED)...THE WEAKENING REMAINS OF THE TROPICAL
ERN PAC CLOSED LOW ARE FORECAST TO CROSS THE NRN CWA TUE NIGHT AS A
VERY MOIST BUT WEAK OPEN WAVE. ABUNDANT MOISTURE PLUS WEAK DYNAMICS
SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH. MOST OF IT
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT THAT
COULD RESULT IN MODEST WATER AMOUNTS FOR THE WASATCH FRONT AND
ADJACENT MTNS. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE AROUND 6000 FT AND ACCUMULATION
COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON TRAVEL ABOVE THAT LEVEL
WED MORNING.

THIS WAVE SHIFTS EAST WED AND PRECIP TAPERS OFF ALTHO SOME MOISTURE
IS LEFT BEHIND. A NEW LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE SUBTROPICAL ERN
PAC AND SPREADS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE SWRN STATES STARTING
THU. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH HOW THIS MOISTURE INTERACTS
WITH A WEAK WAVE COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE ERN PAC RIDGE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE 12Z GFS HAD A STRONGER WAVE AND WAS MUCH WETTER THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A RESULT. THE EC AND NEW 18Z GFS HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER WAVE AND WERE NOT QUITE AS GENEROUS WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS BUT
HAVE MORE MOISTURE OVER THE CWA THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT THAN
EARLIER RUNS. SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN CLIMO POPS
FOR THIS TIME FRAME BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW ON HOW THIS
PATTERN WILL ACTUALLY EVOLVE.

BOTH MODELS DO PUSH THE MOISTURE OFF TO THE SOUTH STARTING SAT AND
FOLLOWED THIS DRYING TREND IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH 02-04Z. CEILINGS NEAR 5000 FEET AGL WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 12Z OR SO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHOENING
LONG TERM...WILENSKY
AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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