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000
FXUS65 KSLC 311623
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1023 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF NEVADA AND INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH FOR LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST OVER
THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS MORNING...HELPING TO PRODUCE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS OF 16Z. THIS IS DESPITE THE
FACT THAT DEEP MOISTURE HAS GENERALLY BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND THE
LAST 24 HOURS IN A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES DROPPING FROM 1.32 INCHES TO 0.90 INCHES BETWEEN
YESTERDAYS AND TODAYS 12Z SLC SOUNDINGS.

STILL...ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY
CONVECTION- WISE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE
OFF THE SPINE OF UTAH...WHILE MORE ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE AREA
FROM NEVADA DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION.
THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST IS WHICH PART
OF UTAH THIS WAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH...AND HOW MUCH IT WILL DRIVE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS
PRODUCE A VARIETY OF OPTIONS...BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THE
MOMENT IS THAT THE WAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE WEST-CENTRAL PART
OF THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEN LINGER IN THE
EAST- CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE TO HELP PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY TO ADJUST POPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASED
POPS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...AS MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE THE BEST
HEAVY RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE SAN RAFAEL SWELL AND ALONG THE
ARIZONA BORDER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...SPREAD OUT POPS A BIT TO INDICATE THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE WAVE PLACEMENT...AND TWEAK THE LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST POPS
BASED ON CURRENT MODEL TRENDS. NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR
THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE MOST PROBABLE DIRECTION BEING
NORTHERLY. THE NORTH WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED AND
INCREASE IN SPEED BY 19-20Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 22Z-02Z...WITH
CIGS 6000FT OR LOWER DEVELOPING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THOSE STORMS.
ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AT THE
TERMINAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FIRE
DISTRICT TODAY. EXPECT SCATTERED WET THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FIRE
DISTRICT. SLIGHT DRYING TOMORROW AND SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO STORMS
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED BEFORE THE NEXT MOISTURE SURGE ARRIVES ON
SUNDAY. BOTTOM LINE...FIRE WEATHER ISSUES NOT ESPECIALLY SIGNIFICANT
DUE TO MOISTURE AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
FIRE WEATHER...CHENG
AVIATION...CHENG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 311623
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1023 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF NEVADA AND INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH FOR LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST OVER
THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS MORNING...HELPING TO PRODUCE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS OF 16Z. THIS IS DESPITE THE
FACT THAT DEEP MOISTURE HAS GENERALLY BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND THE
LAST 24 HOURS IN A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES DROPPING FROM 1.32 INCHES TO 0.90 INCHES BETWEEN
YESTERDAYS AND TODAYS 12Z SLC SOUNDINGS.

STILL...ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY
CONVECTION- WISE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE
OFF THE SPINE OF UTAH...WHILE MORE ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE AREA
FROM NEVADA DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION.
THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST IS WHICH PART
OF UTAH THIS WAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH...AND HOW MUCH IT WILL DRIVE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS
PRODUCE A VARIETY OF OPTIONS...BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THE
MOMENT IS THAT THE WAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE WEST-CENTRAL PART
OF THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEN LINGER IN THE
EAST- CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE TO HELP PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY TO ADJUST POPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASED
POPS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...AS MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE THE BEST
HEAVY RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE SAN RAFAEL SWELL AND ALONG THE
ARIZONA BORDER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...SPREAD OUT POPS A BIT TO INDICATE THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE WAVE PLACEMENT...AND TWEAK THE LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST POPS
BASED ON CURRENT MODEL TRENDS. NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR
THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE MOST PROBABLE DIRECTION BEING
NORTHERLY. THE NORTH WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED AND
INCREASE IN SPEED BY 19-20Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 22Z-02Z...WITH
CIGS 6000FT OR LOWER DEVELOPING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THOSE STORMS.
ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AT THE
TERMINAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FIRE
DISTRICT TODAY. EXPECT SCATTERED WET THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FIRE
DISTRICT. SLIGHT DRYING TOMORROW AND SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO STORMS
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED BEFORE THE NEXT MOISTURE SURGE ARRIVES ON
SUNDAY. BOTTOM LINE...FIRE WEATHER ISSUES NOT ESPECIALLY SIGNIFICANT
DUE TO MOISTURE AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
FIRE WEATHER...CHENG
AVIATION...CHENG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 311011
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
411 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF NEVADA AND INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH FOR LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST OVER
THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 06Z MONDAY)...THE AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF UTAH
REMAINS PRIMED FRO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AGAIN TODAY. PWAT VALUES
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN UTAH...WITH MODEST
DRYING NOTED IN RELATIVELY LOWER PWAT VALLEYS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE POORLY DEFINED VORTICITY MAX IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
CENTRAL NEVADA WILL BECOME THE DRIVE FORCING FOR A NEW ROUND OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BELOW
500 MB COUPLED WITH DYNAMIC LIFT FROM THE VORTICITY MAX SHOULD
GENERATE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH EARLY...WITH THIS
ACTIVITY EXPANDING SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. GOOD
HEATING EARLY ON SHOULD HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR
MASS...LEADING TO FAIRLY STRONG AND SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST UTAH. THE VORTICITY MAX WILL SLOW
CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES THROUGH UTAH. AS SUCH SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...THEN PERSIST
ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY ON SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO GET
GOING OVER THE HIGHER SOUTHERN TERRAIN BY LATE THIS MORNING. HARD
TO FIND ANY FEATURE TO GENERATE ORGANIZED LIFT AT THIS TIME...SO
WILL KEEP THE AREAL COVERAGE A BIT LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
SHOULD PUT A DAMPER ON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY.
NOT LOOKING AT ANY STRONG DRYING OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH DIURNAL
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION STILL LOOKING GOOD AT THIS POINT.

THE EASTERLY WAVE MOVING ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER EARLY IN
THE WEEKEND WILL TURN THE CORNER NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL REESTABLISH THE MOISTURE TAP OUT
OF NORTHERN MEXICO/SOUTHERN ARIZONA AS IT MOVES NORTH NEAR THE
UTAH/NEVADA BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS HEADING INTO
LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE LEADING PUSH OF THIS NEXT
MONSOONAL SURGE.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z MONDAY)...THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS
WITH THE CONTINUATION OF A STRONG MONSOONAL SURGE ACROSS SOUTHERN
UTAH...REACHING NORTHERN UTAH BY MONDAY MORNING.

A DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY. LONG
RANGE MODELS THAN BEGIN TO DIFFER ON THE SPEED AND LOCATION OF THIS
DISTURBANCE AFTER MONDAY. THE GFS SHUNTS THE DISTURBANCE OFF TO THE
NORTH AND EAST BY TUESDAY...WHILE THE EC OFFERS A MORE SPLIT
SOLUTION...KEEPING A PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE STUCK IN THE WEAKER
FLOW OVER THE CWA. WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION...THE GFS
BRINGS AN END TO THE MONSOONAL SURGE OVER UTAH BY TUESDAY MORNING.
ON THE OTHER HAND...THE EC KEEPS DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE CWA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THIS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FORECAST AFTER
MONDAY...WITH THE EC FAVORING A MUCH WETTER PERIOD THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE TUESDAY. HAVE NOTED THAT THE MODELS HAVE TENDED TO TRY TO END
MONSOONAL PUSHES TOO EARLY OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. DECIDED TO LEAN
MORE TOWARD THE EC SOLUTION WITH A WETTER...COOLER PERIOD LONGER
THAN THE CURRENT GFS WOULD INDICATE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DISTRICT TODAY TO DEVELOP ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT A BIT MORE FRIDAY...DECREASING THE COVERAGE
OF ANY CONVECTION TO MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT THE
BEGINNINGS OF ANOTHER MONSOONAL SURGE WILL START TO INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS DEEP
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FURTHER NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE DISTRICT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST EARLY
TODAY...BETWEEN 16-18Z WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE WINDS WILL SHIFT AS
EARLY AS 15Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 20Z-01Z. ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AT
THE TERMINAL.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 311011
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
411 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF NEVADA AND INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH FOR LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST OVER
THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 06Z MONDAY)...THE AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF UTAH
REMAINS PRIMED FRO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AGAIN TODAY. PWAT VALUES
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN UTAH...WITH MODEST
DRYING NOTED IN RELATIVELY LOWER PWAT VALLEYS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE POORLY DEFINED VORTICITY MAX IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
CENTRAL NEVADA WILL BECOME THE DRIVE FORCING FOR A NEW ROUND OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BELOW
500 MB COUPLED WITH DYNAMIC LIFT FROM THE VORTICITY MAX SHOULD
GENERATE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH EARLY...WITH THIS
ACTIVITY EXPANDING SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. GOOD
HEATING EARLY ON SHOULD HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR
MASS...LEADING TO FAIRLY STRONG AND SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST UTAH. THE VORTICITY MAX WILL SLOW
CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES THROUGH UTAH. AS SUCH SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...THEN PERSIST
ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY ON SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO GET
GOING OVER THE HIGHER SOUTHERN TERRAIN BY LATE THIS MORNING. HARD
TO FIND ANY FEATURE TO GENERATE ORGANIZED LIFT AT THIS TIME...SO
WILL KEEP THE AREAL COVERAGE A BIT LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
SHOULD PUT A DAMPER ON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY.
NOT LOOKING AT ANY STRONG DRYING OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH DIURNAL
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION STILL LOOKING GOOD AT THIS POINT.

THE EASTERLY WAVE MOVING ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER EARLY IN
THE WEEKEND WILL TURN THE CORNER NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL REESTABLISH THE MOISTURE TAP OUT
OF NORTHERN MEXICO/SOUTHERN ARIZONA AS IT MOVES NORTH NEAR THE
UTAH/NEVADA BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS HEADING INTO
LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE LEADING PUSH OF THIS NEXT
MONSOONAL SURGE.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z MONDAY)...THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS
WITH THE CONTINUATION OF A STRONG MONSOONAL SURGE ACROSS SOUTHERN
UTAH...REACHING NORTHERN UTAH BY MONDAY MORNING.

A DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY. LONG
RANGE MODELS THAN BEGIN TO DIFFER ON THE SPEED AND LOCATION OF THIS
DISTURBANCE AFTER MONDAY. THE GFS SHUNTS THE DISTURBANCE OFF TO THE
NORTH AND EAST BY TUESDAY...WHILE THE EC OFFERS A MORE SPLIT
SOLUTION...KEEPING A PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE STUCK IN THE WEAKER
FLOW OVER THE CWA. WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION...THE GFS
BRINGS AN END TO THE MONSOONAL SURGE OVER UTAH BY TUESDAY MORNING.
ON THE OTHER HAND...THE EC KEEPS DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE CWA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THIS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FORECAST AFTER
MONDAY...WITH THE EC FAVORING A MUCH WETTER PERIOD THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE TUESDAY. HAVE NOTED THAT THE MODELS HAVE TENDED TO TRY TO END
MONSOONAL PUSHES TOO EARLY OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. DECIDED TO LEAN
MORE TOWARD THE EC SOLUTION WITH A WETTER...COOLER PERIOD LONGER
THAN THE CURRENT GFS WOULD INDICATE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DISTRICT TODAY TO DEVELOP ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT A BIT MORE FRIDAY...DECREASING THE COVERAGE
OF ANY CONVECTION TO MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT THE
BEGINNINGS OF ANOTHER MONSOONAL SURGE WILL START TO INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS DEEP
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FURTHER NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE DISTRICT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST EARLY
TODAY...BETWEEN 16-18Z WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE WINDS WILL SHIFT AS
EARLY AS 15Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 20Z-01Z. ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AT
THE TERMINAL.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 310258
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
858 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE HIGH LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN THE RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE HAS SET UP TO OUR WEST THIS EVE WITH A
CYCLONICALLY CURVED NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA AROUND
THE SHEARED REMAINS OF THE TROF AXIS THAT SITS E-W ALONG THE UINTA
MTNS.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF AXIS HAS JUST ABOUT MOVED OUT
OF THE CWA ALTHO LIGHT OROGRAPHIC PRECIP IS LIKELY PERSISTING
UNDER THE THICK LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS SWRN WY AND OVER THE UINTAS.

MEANWHILE THE THE WEAK TROF THAT IS LIFTING INTO THE GREAT BASIN
FROM CA HAS SET UP A WEAK CONVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SRN NV
INTO SRN UT AND CONVECTION FIRED IN THIS AREA LATE IN THE DAY.
THIS CONTINUES AT THIS TIME WITH SOME PERSISTENT CELLS FORMING
OVER AND NEAR CAPITOL REEF NP AND OTHERS WWD ACROSS KANE CO AND W
OF MILFORD ALONG THE NV BORDER. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT HEAVY
RUNOFF FROM THE CAPITOL REEF STORMS COULD BE RUNNING THRU THE
WASHES IN THAT AREA BUT DONT THINK IT WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING.

LATEST MODELS KEEP CONVECTION ACTIVE ACROSS SWRN OVERNIGHT INTO
THU THEN LIFT IT NWD THU AFTN AS THE CA TROF CONTINUES TO LIFT
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE THEN MERGES WITH THE REMNANT
TROF AXIS ACROSS NRN UT AND SLIDES E THU NIGHT THRU FRI.

UPDATED FORECASTS EARLIER TO ADD POPS TO THE FAR SOUTH FOR THE
EVE. UPDATED AGAIN TO KEEP POPS ACROSS SWRN THRU THE NIGHT. NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS. EAST WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER ABOUT 04-05Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 310258
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
858 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE HIGH LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN THE RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE HAS SET UP TO OUR WEST THIS EVE WITH A
CYCLONICALLY CURVED NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA AROUND
THE SHEARED REMAINS OF THE TROF AXIS THAT SITS E-W ALONG THE UINTA
MTNS.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF AXIS HAS JUST ABOUT MOVED OUT
OF THE CWA ALTHO LIGHT OROGRAPHIC PRECIP IS LIKELY PERSISTING
UNDER THE THICK LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS SWRN WY AND OVER THE UINTAS.

MEANWHILE THE THE WEAK TROF THAT IS LIFTING INTO THE GREAT BASIN
FROM CA HAS SET UP A WEAK CONVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SRN NV
INTO SRN UT AND CONVECTION FIRED IN THIS AREA LATE IN THE DAY.
THIS CONTINUES AT THIS TIME WITH SOME PERSISTENT CELLS FORMING
OVER AND NEAR CAPITOL REEF NP AND OTHERS WWD ACROSS KANE CO AND W
OF MILFORD ALONG THE NV BORDER. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT HEAVY
RUNOFF FROM THE CAPITOL REEF STORMS COULD BE RUNNING THRU THE
WASHES IN THAT AREA BUT DONT THINK IT WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING.

LATEST MODELS KEEP CONVECTION ACTIVE ACROSS SWRN OVERNIGHT INTO
THU THEN LIFT IT NWD THU AFTN AS THE CA TROF CONTINUES TO LIFT
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE THEN MERGES WITH THE REMNANT
TROF AXIS ACROSS NRN UT AND SLIDES E THU NIGHT THRU FRI.

UPDATED FORECASTS EARLIER TO ADD POPS TO THE FAR SOUTH FOR THE
EVE. UPDATED AGAIN TO KEEP POPS ACROSS SWRN THRU THE NIGHT. NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS. EAST WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER ABOUT 04-05Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 302147
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
347 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR ROCKIES STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WAVE TOMORROW
EVENING WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS BEFORE
STABILIZING SOME FOR THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO OUR WEST BEHIND
THE UPPER WAVE THAT LIFTED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT HAS AIDED TO DRY THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SOME TODAY
BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL WITH PWAT RANGING FROM .9
TO 1.3 INCHES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. REMNANT CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HAS DONE WONDERS TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THUS
FAR TODAY BUT SOME THINNING HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO JUMP SOME 10
DEGREES OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...THIS FINALLY ALLOWING SOME AREAS
TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED STORMS THE RESULT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BUT UPDRAFTS HAVE
REMAINED WEAK. ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
MTNS. EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING.

ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL AID TO DRY THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND EXPECT SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE.
UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA NOTED IN WATER VAPOR WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE
AREA LATER TOMORROW AND BE OVERHEAD TOMORROW NIGHT PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL LIFT TO AID CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. A STRONGER UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE REMAINS ON TAP LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL HAVE A BETTER
TRAJECTORY TO TAP SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...WITH FORECAST
PWAT AS HIGH AS 1.6 INCHES ACROSS THE EAST AND 1.2 TO 1.3 INCHES
IN THE WEST DURING THAT TIME.

MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO POP GRIDS REGARDING THOSE TWO WAVES...BUT
DID ONCE AGAIN SHY AWAY FROM BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
FOR MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY. SHOULD BE YET ANOTHER COOL UNSETTLED DAY
WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO EXCEED 80 ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT AND
LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT TO REFLECT THINKING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME DISPLACED WEST IN WAKE OF
THIS WAVE PASSING. GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW AND GRADUAL WARMING TREND OF TEMPS FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING THE SLC TERMINAL BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z...WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN MODERATE-TO-HEAVY RAIN AND CEILINGS BELOW 7000FT AS
THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT NORTH IS THE MOST LIKELY DIRECTION FOR
ANY WINDS STRONGER THAN 6 KNOTS THROUGH 02Z...BEFORE WINDS SWITCH TO
THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER....DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE DISTRICT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT IT WILL SLOWLY BECOME DRIER THROUGH FRIDAY.
STILL...DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A THREAT OF CONVECTION...PRIMARILY DURING
THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE A BIT OF
ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME MORE STABLE
SATURDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE DISTRICT FROM THE
SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL/SCHOENING/TRAPHAGAN


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HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

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VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 302147
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
347 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR ROCKIES STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WAVE TOMORROW
EVENING WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS BEFORE
STABILIZING SOME FOR THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO OUR WEST BEHIND
THE UPPER WAVE THAT LIFTED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT HAS AIDED TO DRY THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SOME TODAY
BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL WITH PWAT RANGING FROM .9
TO 1.3 INCHES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. REMNANT CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HAS DONE WONDERS TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THUS
FAR TODAY BUT SOME THINNING HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO JUMP SOME 10
DEGREES OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...THIS FINALLY ALLOWING SOME AREAS
TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED STORMS THE RESULT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BUT UPDRAFTS HAVE
REMAINED WEAK. ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
MTNS. EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING.

ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL AID TO DRY THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND EXPECT SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE.
UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA NOTED IN WATER VAPOR WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE
AREA LATER TOMORROW AND BE OVERHEAD TOMORROW NIGHT PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL LIFT TO AID CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. A STRONGER UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE REMAINS ON TAP LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL HAVE A BETTER
TRAJECTORY TO TAP SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...WITH FORECAST
PWAT AS HIGH AS 1.6 INCHES ACROSS THE EAST AND 1.2 TO 1.3 INCHES
IN THE WEST DURING THAT TIME.

MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO POP GRIDS REGARDING THOSE TWO WAVES...BUT
DID ONCE AGAIN SHY AWAY FROM BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
FOR MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY. SHOULD BE YET ANOTHER COOL UNSETTLED DAY
WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO EXCEED 80 ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT AND
LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT TO REFLECT THINKING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME DISPLACED WEST IN WAKE OF
THIS WAVE PASSING. GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW AND GRADUAL WARMING TREND OF TEMPS FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING THE SLC TERMINAL BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z...WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN MODERATE-TO-HEAVY RAIN AND CEILINGS BELOW 7000FT AS
THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT NORTH IS THE MOST LIKELY DIRECTION FOR
ANY WINDS STRONGER THAN 6 KNOTS THROUGH 02Z...BEFORE WINDS SWITCH TO
THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER....DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE DISTRICT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT IT WILL SLOWLY BECOME DRIER THROUGH FRIDAY.
STILL...DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A THREAT OF CONVECTION...PRIMARILY DURING
THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE A BIT OF
ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME MORE STABLE
SATURDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE DISTRICT FROM THE
SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL/SCHOENING/TRAPHAGAN


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HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 301654
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1054 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN UTAH
COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY. A SECOND WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS UTAH EARLY THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW OVER SW WYOMING NOTED IN SATELLITE AND
OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS
MORNING. EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD FROM THIS CURRENTLY INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH...THOUGH WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT
AND VERY DEEP MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE ALLOWING A SCATTERING OF
SHOWERS FROM HEBER TO THE GREAT SALT LAKE AND POINTS NORTHEAST.
HAVE NOTED CONVECTION OVER THE GREAT SALT LAKE AS LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY IS GREATER THERE DUE TO WARM WATER RELATIVE TO THE
LAND...BUT THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN TIED TO THE LAND/LAKE
INTERFACE AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ON SHORE. FLOW ALOFT NOW
NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT SUBTLE MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE EXISTS FROM CENTRAL UTAH TO ROUGHLY THE INTERSTATE 80
AREA.

LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL EXISTS NEARLY AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN
BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT AS IT WAS YESTERDAY
DUE TO LACK OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVERHEAD. 12Z KSLC RAOB MEASURED
1.32 INCHES PWAT FOCUSED AT AND BELOW H5. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
NEAR TO LOW 60S NORTH...UPPER 40S TO MID 50S SOUTH. EXPECTING
CONVECTION TO BE MOST NOTABLE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE COME EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT COINCIDES WITH FRINGE OF
THE CLOUD SHIELD. STORMS DOWN SOUTH WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR SHOULD
BEGIN AS TYPICAL AIRMASS TYPE CONVECTION OVER THE TERRAIN BEFORE
GRADUALLY EAST WITH FLOW ALOFT.

UPDATED EARLIER TO LOWER MAX TEMPS MANY AREAS IN THE NORTH AND
EAST DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER...TRENDED TEMPS MORE
TOWARDS RAW GUIDANCE AS BIAS CORRECTED HAS BEEN MUCH TOO WARM OF
LATE. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY WASATCH FRONT THROUGH CASTLE COUNTRY
AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL AID TO DRY THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND EXPECT SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE.
UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA NOTED IN WATER VAPOR WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE
AREA LATER TOMORROW AND BE OVERHEAD TOMORROW NIGHT PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL LIFT TO AID CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. A STRONGER UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE REMAINS ON TAP LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

OUTSIDE OF TODAYS ACTIVITY FOCUS OF SHIFT WILL BE HONING IN ON
THOSE TWO PRIMARY FEATURES MENTIONED ABOVE. NEEDLESS TO SAY QUITE
ACTIVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THINGS QUIET DOWN AS THE HIGH
CENTER SHIFTS WEST ALLOWING A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW TO SET IN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT THE
SLC TERMINAL. CIGS AT OR BELOW 6000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
ABOVE THAT LEVEL BY 18Z...BUT THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THOSE
CIGS STICKING AROUND LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF GUSTY AND/OR ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL/TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

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VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 301654
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1054 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN UTAH
COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY. A SECOND WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS UTAH EARLY THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW OVER SW WYOMING NOTED IN SATELLITE AND
OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS
MORNING. EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD FROM THIS CURRENTLY INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH...THOUGH WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT
AND VERY DEEP MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE ALLOWING A SCATTERING OF
SHOWERS FROM HEBER TO THE GREAT SALT LAKE AND POINTS NORTHEAST.
HAVE NOTED CONVECTION OVER THE GREAT SALT LAKE AS LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY IS GREATER THERE DUE TO WARM WATER RELATIVE TO THE
LAND...BUT THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN TIED TO THE LAND/LAKE
INTERFACE AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ON SHORE. FLOW ALOFT NOW
NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT SUBTLE MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE EXISTS FROM CENTRAL UTAH TO ROUGHLY THE INTERSTATE 80
AREA.

LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL EXISTS NEARLY AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN
BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT AS IT WAS YESTERDAY
DUE TO LACK OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVERHEAD. 12Z KSLC RAOB MEASURED
1.32 INCHES PWAT FOCUSED AT AND BELOW H5. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
NEAR TO LOW 60S NORTH...UPPER 40S TO MID 50S SOUTH. EXPECTING
CONVECTION TO BE MOST NOTABLE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE COME EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT COINCIDES WITH FRINGE OF
THE CLOUD SHIELD. STORMS DOWN SOUTH WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR SHOULD
BEGIN AS TYPICAL AIRMASS TYPE CONVECTION OVER THE TERRAIN BEFORE
GRADUALLY EAST WITH FLOW ALOFT.

UPDATED EARLIER TO LOWER MAX TEMPS MANY AREAS IN THE NORTH AND
EAST DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER...TRENDED TEMPS MORE
TOWARDS RAW GUIDANCE AS BIAS CORRECTED HAS BEEN MUCH TOO WARM OF
LATE. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY WASATCH FRONT THROUGH CASTLE COUNTRY
AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL AID TO DRY THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND EXPECT SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE.
UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA NOTED IN WATER VAPOR WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE
AREA LATER TOMORROW AND BE OVERHEAD TOMORROW NIGHT PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL LIFT TO AID CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. A STRONGER UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE REMAINS ON TAP LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

OUTSIDE OF TODAYS ACTIVITY FOCUS OF SHIFT WILL BE HONING IN ON
THOSE TWO PRIMARY FEATURES MENTIONED ABOVE. NEEDLESS TO SAY QUITE
ACTIVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THINGS QUIET DOWN AS THE HIGH
CENTER SHIFTS WEST ALLOWING A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW TO SET IN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT THE
SLC TERMINAL. CIGS AT OR BELOW 6000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
ABOVE THAT LEVEL BY 18Z...BUT THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THOSE
CIGS STICKING AROUND LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF GUSTY AND/OR ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL/TRAPHAGAN

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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 301038 CCA
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
438 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN UTAH
COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY. A SECOND WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS UTAH EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE WEAK UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING WITH A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING WEST ALONG THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER WILL REMAIN
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AGAIN TODAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
WILL GRADUALLY WORK EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. DYNAMIC LIFT ALONG WITH
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO COOLING ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING
ABOUT ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN UTAH
THROUGH SOUTHWEST WYOMING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE IN
PLAY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. SHOWERY
PRECIP WILL LIKELY PERSIST TONIGHT...THOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH MAY GET OFF TO A SLOW START CONVECTION-
WISE TODAY. ISOLATED AIR MASS CONVECTION SHOULD FORM BEGINNING
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN GAIN SOME ORGANIZATION AS
THE ABOVE MENTION UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES CENTRAL/EASTERN UTAH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
THE AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED.

THE VORTICITY MAX TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT TIME
WILL BE THE NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH FOR THURSDAY. EVEN THOUGH PWAT
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE AS THIS NEXT FEATURE REACHES NORTHERN/WESTERN
UTAH. DYNAMIC LIFT ALONG WITH A MODEST AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL
COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORTICITY MAX WILL WORK TOWARDS
GENERATING CONVECTION FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH NEAR THE MID-LEVEL
COLD POCKET AND BEST LIFT. HAVE BOOSTED POPS CONSIDERABLY OVER
AREAS OF THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT IS MOST
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST AS
THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS UTAH. STILL LOOKING AT ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE TO DRIVE DIURNAL CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SLOW-MOVING EASTERLY WAVE IN GUIDANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEK WILL TURN NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA
SATURDAY...THEN TRACK THROUGH EASTERN NEVADA/WESTERN UTAH LATE IN
THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY. THE MOISTURE POOLED ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO/SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL GET TAPPED BY THIS WAVE AND ACCOMPANY
THE SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT EARLY IN THE WEEK. LOOKING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF MONSOONALLY-INDUCED SCATTERED CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN
LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE.



&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT THE SLC TERMINAL. WINDS SHOULD STAY GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHERLY THROUGH AROUND 16-18Z. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS TURN NORTHWEST AT TIMES BEFORE 18Z. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY NORTHWEST AFTER NOON AND COULD SEE GUST
TO 15 MPH. AS MOISTURE DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...SKIES
SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER....MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED OVER MUCH OF
UTAH AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING
THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE DISTRICT BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
ANY EARLY MORNING STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAINFALL.
THE DISTRICT WILL SEE A SLOW DRYING TREND THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER
...MORE THAN ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH SOME LINGERING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WINDS WILL
BE GENERALLY LIGHT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE DISTRICT
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CONGER
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...YOUNG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 301038 CCA
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
438 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN UTAH
COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY. A SECOND WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS UTAH EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE WEAK UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING WITH A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING WEST ALONG THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER WILL REMAIN
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AGAIN TODAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
WILL GRADUALLY WORK EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. DYNAMIC LIFT ALONG WITH
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO COOLING ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING
ABOUT ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN UTAH
THROUGH SOUTHWEST WYOMING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE IN
PLAY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. SHOWERY
PRECIP WILL LIKELY PERSIST TONIGHT...THOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH MAY GET OFF TO A SLOW START CONVECTION-
WISE TODAY. ISOLATED AIR MASS CONVECTION SHOULD FORM BEGINNING
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN GAIN SOME ORGANIZATION AS
THE ABOVE MENTION UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES CENTRAL/EASTERN UTAH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
THE AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED.

THE VORTICITY MAX TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT TIME
WILL BE THE NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH FOR THURSDAY. EVEN THOUGH PWAT
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE AS THIS NEXT FEATURE REACHES NORTHERN/WESTERN
UTAH. DYNAMIC LIFT ALONG WITH A MODEST AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL
COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORTICITY MAX WILL WORK TOWARDS
GENERATING CONVECTION FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH NEAR THE MID-LEVEL
COLD POCKET AND BEST LIFT. HAVE BOOSTED POPS CONSIDERABLY OVER
AREAS OF THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT IS MOST
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST AS
THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS UTAH. STILL LOOKING AT ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE TO DRIVE DIURNAL CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SLOW-MOVING EASTERLY WAVE IN GUIDANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEK WILL TURN NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA
SATURDAY...THEN TRACK THROUGH EASTERN NEVADA/WESTERN UTAH LATE IN
THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY. THE MOISTURE POOLED ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO/SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL GET TAPPED BY THIS WAVE AND ACCOMPANY
THE SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT EARLY IN THE WEEK. LOOKING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF MONSOONALLY-INDUCED SCATTERED CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN
LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE.



&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT THE SLC TERMINAL. WINDS SHOULD STAY GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHERLY THROUGH AROUND 16-18Z. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS TURN NORTHWEST AT TIMES BEFORE 18Z. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY NORTHWEST AFTER NOON AND COULD SEE GUST
TO 15 MPH. AS MOISTURE DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...SKIES
SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER....MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED OVER MUCH OF
UTAH AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING
THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE DISTRICT BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
ANY EARLY MORNING STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAINFALL.
THE DISTRICT WILL SEE A SLOW DRYING TREND THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER
...MORE THAN ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH SOME LINGERING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WINDS WILL
BE GENERALLY LIGHT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE DISTRICT
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CONGER
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...YOUNG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 301034
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
434 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN UTAH
COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY. A SECOND WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE UTAH EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE WEAK UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING WITH A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING WEST ALONG THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER WILL REMAIN
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AGAIN TODAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
WILL GRADUALLY WORK EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. DYNAMIC LIFT ALONG WITH
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO COOLING ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING
ABOUT ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN UTAH
THROUGH SOUTHWEST WYOMING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE IN
PLAY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. SHOWERY
PRECIP WILL LIKELY PERSIST TONIGHT...THOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH MAY GET OFF TO A SLOW START CONVECTION-
WISE TODAY. ISOLATED AIR MASS CONVECTION SHOULD FORM BEGINNING
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN GAIN SOME ORGANIZATION AS
THE ABOVE MENTION UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES CENTRAL/EASTERN UTAH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
THE AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED.

THE VORTICITY MAX TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT TIME
WILL BE THE NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH FOR THURSDAY. EVEN THOUGH PWAT
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE AS THIS NEXT FEATURE REACHES NORTHERN/WESTERN
UTAH. DYNAMIC LIFT ALONG WITH A MODEST AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL
COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORTICITY MAX WILL WORK TOWARDS
GENERATING CONVECTION FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH NEAR THE MID-LEVEL
COLD POCKET AND BEST LIFT. HAVE BOOSTED POPS CONSIDERABLY OVER
AREAS OF THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT IS MOST
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST AS
THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS UTAH. STILL LOOKING AT ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE TO DRIVE DIURNAL CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SLOW-MOVING EASTERLY WAVE IN GUIDANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEK WILL TURN NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA
SATURDAY...THEN TRACK THROUGH EASTERN NEVADA/WESTERN UTAH LATE IN
THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY. THE MOISTURE POOLED ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO/SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL GET TAPPED BY THIS WAVE AND ACCOMPANY
THE SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT EARLY IN THE WEEK. LOOKING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF MONSOONALLY-INDUCED SCATTERED CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN
LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE.



&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT THE SLC TERMINAL. WINDS SHOULD STAY GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHERLY THROUGH AROUND 16-18Z. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS TURN NORTHWEST AT TIMES BEFORE 18Z. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY NORTHWEST AFTER NOON AND COULD SEE GUST
TO 15 MPH. AS MOISTURE DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...SKIES
SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER....MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED OVER MUCH OF
UTAH AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING
THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE DISTRICT BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
ANY EARLY MORNING STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAINFALL.
THE DISTRICT WILL SEE A SLOW DRYING TREND THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER
...MORE THAN ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH SOME LINGERING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WINDS WILL
BE GENERALLY LIGHT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE DISTRICT
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CONGER
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...YOUNG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 301034
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
434 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN UTAH
COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY. A SECOND WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE UTAH EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE WEAK UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING WITH A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING WEST ALONG THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER WILL REMAIN
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AGAIN TODAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
WILL GRADUALLY WORK EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. DYNAMIC LIFT ALONG WITH
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO COOLING ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING
ABOUT ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN UTAH
THROUGH SOUTHWEST WYOMING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE IN
PLAY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. SHOWERY
PRECIP WILL LIKELY PERSIST TONIGHT...THOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH MAY GET OFF TO A SLOW START CONVECTION-
WISE TODAY. ISOLATED AIR MASS CONVECTION SHOULD FORM BEGINNING
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN GAIN SOME ORGANIZATION AS
THE ABOVE MENTION UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES CENTRAL/EASTERN UTAH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
THE AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED.

THE VORTICITY MAX TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT TIME
WILL BE THE NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH FOR THURSDAY. EVEN THOUGH PWAT
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE AS THIS NEXT FEATURE REACHES NORTHERN/WESTERN
UTAH. DYNAMIC LIFT ALONG WITH A MODEST AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL
COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORTICITY MAX WILL WORK TOWARDS
GENERATING CONVECTION FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH NEAR THE MID-LEVEL
COLD POCKET AND BEST LIFT. HAVE BOOSTED POPS CONSIDERABLY OVER
AREAS OF THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT IS MOST
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST AS
THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS UTAH. STILL LOOKING AT ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE TO DRIVE DIURNAL CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SLOW-MOVING EASTERLY WAVE IN GUIDANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEK WILL TURN NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA
SATURDAY...THEN TRACK THROUGH EASTERN NEVADA/WESTERN UTAH LATE IN
THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY. THE MOISTURE POOLED ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO/SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL GET TAPPED BY THIS WAVE AND ACCOMPANY
THE SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT EARLY IN THE WEEK. LOOKING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF MONSOONALLY-INDUCED SCATTERED CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN
LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE.



&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT THE SLC TERMINAL. WINDS SHOULD STAY GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHERLY THROUGH AROUND 16-18Z. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS TURN NORTHWEST AT TIMES BEFORE 18Z. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY NORTHWEST AFTER NOON AND COULD SEE GUST
TO 15 MPH. AS MOISTURE DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...SKIES
SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER....MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED OVER MUCH OF
UTAH AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING
THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE DISTRICT BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
ANY EARLY MORNING STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAINFALL.
THE DISTRICT WILL SEE A SLOW DRYING TREND THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER
...MORE THAN ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH SOME LINGERING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WINDS WILL
BE GENERALLY LIGHT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE DISTRICT
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CONGER
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...YOUNG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 301034
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
434 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN UTAH
COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY. A SECOND WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE UTAH EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE WEAK UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING WITH A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING WEST ALONG THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER WILL REMAIN
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AGAIN TODAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
WILL GRADUALLY WORK EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. DYNAMIC LIFT ALONG WITH
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO COOLING ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING
ABOUT ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN UTAH
THROUGH SOUTHWEST WYOMING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE IN
PLAY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. SHOWERY
PRECIP WILL LIKELY PERSIST TONIGHT...THOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH MAY GET OFF TO A SLOW START CONVECTION-
WISE TODAY. ISOLATED AIR MASS CONVECTION SHOULD FORM BEGINNING
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN GAIN SOME ORGANIZATION AS
THE ABOVE MENTION UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES CENTRAL/EASTERN UTAH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
THE AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED.

THE VORTICITY MAX TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT TIME
WILL BE THE NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH FOR THURSDAY. EVEN THOUGH PWAT
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE AS THIS NEXT FEATURE REACHES NORTHERN/WESTERN
UTAH. DYNAMIC LIFT ALONG WITH A MODEST AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL
COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORTICITY MAX WILL WORK TOWARDS
GENERATING CONVECTION FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH NEAR THE MID-LEVEL
COLD POCKET AND BEST LIFT. HAVE BOOSTED POPS CONSIDERABLY OVER
AREAS OF THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT IS MOST
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST AS
THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS UTAH. STILL LOOKING AT ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE TO DRIVE DIURNAL CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SLOW-MOVING EASTERLY WAVE IN GUIDANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEK WILL TURN NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA
SATURDAY...THEN TRACK THROUGH EASTERN NEVADA/WESTERN UTAH LATE IN
THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY. THE MOISTURE POOLED ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO/SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL GET TAPPED BY THIS WAVE AND ACCOMPANY
THE SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT EARLY IN THE WEEK. LOOKING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF MONSOONALLY-INDUCED SCATTERED CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN
LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE.



&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT THE SLC TERMINAL. WINDS SHOULD STAY GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHERLY THROUGH AROUND 16-18Z. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS TURN NORTHWEST AT TIMES BEFORE 18Z. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY NORTHWEST AFTER NOON AND COULD SEE GUST
TO 15 MPH. AS MOISTURE DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...SKIES
SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER....MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED OVER MUCH OF
UTAH AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING
THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE DISTRICT BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
ANY EARLY MORNING STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAINFALL.
THE DISTRICT WILL SEE A SLOW DRYING TREND THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER
...MORE THAN ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH SOME LINGERING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WINDS WILL
BE GENERALLY LIGHT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE DISTRICT
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CONGER
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...YOUNG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 301034
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
434 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN UTAH
COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY. A SECOND WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE UTAH EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE WEAK UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING WITH A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING WEST ALONG THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER WILL REMAIN
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AGAIN TODAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
WILL GRADUALLY WORK EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. DYNAMIC LIFT ALONG WITH
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO COOLING ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING
ABOUT ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN UTAH
THROUGH SOUTHWEST WYOMING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE IN
PLAY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. SHOWERY
PRECIP WILL LIKELY PERSIST TONIGHT...THOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH MAY GET OFF TO A SLOW START CONVECTION-
WISE TODAY. ISOLATED AIR MASS CONVECTION SHOULD FORM BEGINNING
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN GAIN SOME ORGANIZATION AS
THE ABOVE MENTION UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES CENTRAL/EASTERN UTAH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
THE AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED.

THE VORTICITY MAX TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT TIME
WILL BE THE NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH FOR THURSDAY. EVEN THOUGH PWAT
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE AS THIS NEXT FEATURE REACHES NORTHERN/WESTERN
UTAH. DYNAMIC LIFT ALONG WITH A MODEST AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL
COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORTICITY MAX WILL WORK TOWARDS
GENERATING CONVECTION FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH NEAR THE MID-LEVEL
COLD POCKET AND BEST LIFT. HAVE BOOSTED POPS CONSIDERABLY OVER
AREAS OF THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT IS MOST
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST AS
THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS UTAH. STILL LOOKING AT ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE TO DRIVE DIURNAL CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SLOW-MOVING EASTERLY WAVE IN GUIDANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEK WILL TURN NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA
SATURDAY...THEN TRACK THROUGH EASTERN NEVADA/WESTERN UTAH LATE IN
THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY. THE MOISTURE POOLED ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO/SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL GET TAPPED BY THIS WAVE AND ACCOMPANY
THE SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT EARLY IN THE WEEK. LOOKING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF MONSOONALLY-INDUCED SCATTERED CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN
LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE.



&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT THE SLC TERMINAL. WINDS SHOULD STAY GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHERLY THROUGH AROUND 16-18Z. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS TURN NORTHWEST AT TIMES BEFORE 18Z. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY NORTHWEST AFTER NOON AND COULD SEE GUST
TO 15 MPH. AS MOISTURE DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...SKIES
SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER....MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED OVER MUCH OF
UTAH AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING
THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE DISTRICT BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
ANY EARLY MORNING STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAINFALL.
THE DISTRICT WILL SEE A SLOW DRYING TREND THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER
...MORE THAN ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH SOME LINGERING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WINDS WILL
BE GENERALLY LIGHT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE DISTRICT
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CONGER
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...YOUNG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 300354
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
954 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. A SLOW DRYING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE CWA AS
OF LATE THIS EVE BUT THE MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. MOST
SHOWERS PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN THRU THE AFTERNOON AND LOCAL FLOODING
OCCURRED IN A NUMBER OF AREAS. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF THAT
HELPED THE CONVECTION TODAY REMAINS SHEARED ACROSS NRN UT WITH
SUFFICIENT LIFT TO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA THRU THE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE
NORTH OF ABOUT I-80. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS GREATLY
REDUCED BUT THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW AREAS WHERE SMALL BUT
INTENSE RAIN SHOWERS CREATE LOCAL HEAVY RUNOFF AND MINOR FLOODING.

WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA WED WITH SOME
DRYING BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TO ALLOW STORMS TO
FORM OVER THE TERRAIN AND DRIFT OFF TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE
AFTN.

MODELS APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THE WEAK SYSTEM FORECAST TO
ENTER THE GREAT BASIN WED NIGHT AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST THRU THU
NIGHT AND FRI. THE LATEST GFS IS WEAKER...FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THIS FEATURE AND WOULD RESULT IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THU AFTN AND LESS DRYING THAN EARLIER RUNS INDICATED.

HAVE UPDATED FORECASTS TO LOWER POPS MOST AREAS THRU MIDNIGHT BUT
RAISED THEM SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOME OF THE NORTH AFTER THAT. NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AT THE SLC TERMINAL. WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY
BY AROUND 05Z BUT THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THEY WILL NOT
SWITCH UNTIL 10-11Z. SHOWERS COULD CROSS THE TERMINAL AT TIMES
AFTER ABOUT 05Z TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN IF A SHOWER
PASSES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY SHOWERS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 300354
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
954 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. A SLOW DRYING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE CWA AS
OF LATE THIS EVE BUT THE MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. MOST
SHOWERS PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN THRU THE AFTERNOON AND LOCAL FLOODING
OCCURRED IN A NUMBER OF AREAS. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF THAT
HELPED THE CONVECTION TODAY REMAINS SHEARED ACROSS NRN UT WITH
SUFFICIENT LIFT TO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA THRU THE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE
NORTH OF ABOUT I-80. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS GREATLY
REDUCED BUT THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW AREAS WHERE SMALL BUT
INTENSE RAIN SHOWERS CREATE LOCAL HEAVY RUNOFF AND MINOR FLOODING.

WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA WED WITH SOME
DRYING BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TO ALLOW STORMS TO
FORM OVER THE TERRAIN AND DRIFT OFF TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE
AFTN.

MODELS APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THE WEAK SYSTEM FORECAST TO
ENTER THE GREAT BASIN WED NIGHT AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST THRU THU
NIGHT AND FRI. THE LATEST GFS IS WEAKER...FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THIS FEATURE AND WOULD RESULT IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THU AFTN AND LESS DRYING THAN EARLIER RUNS INDICATED.

HAVE UPDATED FORECASTS TO LOWER POPS MOST AREAS THRU MIDNIGHT BUT
RAISED THEM SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOME OF THE NORTH AFTER THAT. NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AT THE SLC TERMINAL. WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY
BY AROUND 05Z BUT THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THEY WILL NOT
SWITCH UNTIL 10-11Z. SHOWERS COULD CROSS THE TERMINAL AT TIMES
AFTER ABOUT 05Z TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN IF A SHOWER
PASSES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY SHOWERS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 300354
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
954 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. A SLOW DRYING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE CWA AS
OF LATE THIS EVE BUT THE MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. MOST
SHOWERS PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN THRU THE AFTERNOON AND LOCAL FLOODING
OCCURRED IN A NUMBER OF AREAS. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF THAT
HELPED THE CONVECTION TODAY REMAINS SHEARED ACROSS NRN UT WITH
SUFFICIENT LIFT TO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA THRU THE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE
NORTH OF ABOUT I-80. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS GREATLY
REDUCED BUT THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW AREAS WHERE SMALL BUT
INTENSE RAIN SHOWERS CREATE LOCAL HEAVY RUNOFF AND MINOR FLOODING.

WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA WED WITH SOME
DRYING BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TO ALLOW STORMS TO
FORM OVER THE TERRAIN AND DRIFT OFF TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE
AFTN.

MODELS APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THE WEAK SYSTEM FORECAST TO
ENTER THE GREAT BASIN WED NIGHT AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST THRU THU
NIGHT AND FRI. THE LATEST GFS IS WEAKER...FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THIS FEATURE AND WOULD RESULT IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THU AFTN AND LESS DRYING THAN EARLIER RUNS INDICATED.

HAVE UPDATED FORECASTS TO LOWER POPS MOST AREAS THRU MIDNIGHT BUT
RAISED THEM SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOME OF THE NORTH AFTER THAT. NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AT THE SLC TERMINAL. WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY
BY AROUND 05Z BUT THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THEY WILL NOT
SWITCH UNTIL 10-11Z. SHOWERS COULD CROSS THE TERMINAL AT TIMES
AFTER ABOUT 05Z TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN IF A SHOWER
PASSES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY SHOWERS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 300354
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
954 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. A SLOW DRYING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE CWA AS
OF LATE THIS EVE BUT THE MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. MOST
SHOWERS PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN THRU THE AFTERNOON AND LOCAL FLOODING
OCCURRED IN A NUMBER OF AREAS. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF THAT
HELPED THE CONVECTION TODAY REMAINS SHEARED ACROSS NRN UT WITH
SUFFICIENT LIFT TO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA THRU THE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE
NORTH OF ABOUT I-80. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS GREATLY
REDUCED BUT THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW AREAS WHERE SMALL BUT
INTENSE RAIN SHOWERS CREATE LOCAL HEAVY RUNOFF AND MINOR FLOODING.

WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA WED WITH SOME
DRYING BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TO ALLOW STORMS TO
FORM OVER THE TERRAIN AND DRIFT OFF TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE
AFTN.

MODELS APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THE WEAK SYSTEM FORECAST TO
ENTER THE GREAT BASIN WED NIGHT AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST THRU THU
NIGHT AND FRI. THE LATEST GFS IS WEAKER...FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THIS FEATURE AND WOULD RESULT IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THU AFTN AND LESS DRYING THAN EARLIER RUNS INDICATED.

HAVE UPDATED FORECASTS TO LOWER POPS MOST AREAS THRU MIDNIGHT BUT
RAISED THEM SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOME OF THE NORTH AFTER THAT. NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AT THE SLC TERMINAL. WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY
BY AROUND 05Z BUT THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THEY WILL NOT
SWITCH UNTIL 10-11Z. SHOWERS COULD CROSS THE TERMINAL AT TIMES
AFTER ABOUT 05Z TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN IF A SHOWER
PASSES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY SHOWERS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 292239
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
439 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. A SLOW DRYING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.25" ACROSS MUCH
OF THE STATE. IN ADDITION...SBCAPE VALUES ACROSS UTAH ARE
GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TWO UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS ARE INTERACTING WITH THIS VERY MOIST AIRMASS TO BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE. ONE UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE BROUGHT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN UTAH TODAY...BUT COVERAGE IS DIMINISHING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION MOVES EAST. HOWEVER...WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND THE BACK EDGE YET TO PASS
THROUGH REGION...WILL KEEP MENTION OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. A SECOND CIRCULATION IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
UTAH AND IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. BEHIND THIS WAVE A LITTLE
MORE STABLE AIR IS FILTERING INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS THE STATE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. STORMS HAVE BEEN VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS
AND ANTICIPATE THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTHWEST OVER THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY ON
BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AIRMASS DRIES OUT A
BIT...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL REMAIN UP NEAR AN INCH.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL NOT BE THE ORGANIZED FORCING...AS WAS THE
CASE TODAY....ANTICIPATE ISOLATED VALLEY CONVECTION AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. DESPITE THE DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY. IN
ADDITION...STORMS IN SOUTHERN UTAH WILL TEND TO MOVE SOUTH WHICH
RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWN DRAINAGE MOVEMENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE LESS
EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE STATE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN UTAH. ANTICIPATE A DRYING
TREND FOR THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION IN
THE SOUTH WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS CONFINED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AT THE SLC TERMINAL. WINDS SHOULD STAY GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. SHOWERS COULD CROSS THE TERMINAL AT TIMES
AFTER ABOUT 02- 04Z TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN IF A SHOWER
PASSES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY
SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE DISTRICT
TODAY...RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WETTING
RAINFALL. THE DISTRICT WILL SEE A SLOW DRYING TREND BEGINNING
TOMORROW. HOWEVER...MORE THAN ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH SOME
LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
ACROSS THE DISTRICT OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...GRAHAM
FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KSLC 292239
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
439 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. A SLOW DRYING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.25" ACROSS MUCH
OF THE STATE. IN ADDITION...SBCAPE VALUES ACROSS UTAH ARE
GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TWO UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS ARE INTERACTING WITH THIS VERY MOIST AIRMASS TO BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE. ONE UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE BROUGHT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN UTAH TODAY...BUT COVERAGE IS DIMINISHING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION MOVES EAST. HOWEVER...WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND THE BACK EDGE YET TO PASS
THROUGH REGION...WILL KEEP MENTION OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. A SECOND CIRCULATION IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
UTAH AND IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. BEHIND THIS WAVE A LITTLE
MORE STABLE AIR IS FILTERING INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS THE STATE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. STORMS HAVE BEEN VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS
AND ANTICIPATE THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTHWEST OVER THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY ON
BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AIRMASS DRIES OUT A
BIT...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL REMAIN UP NEAR AN INCH.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL NOT BE THE ORGANIZED FORCING...AS WAS THE
CASE TODAY....ANTICIPATE ISOLATED VALLEY CONVECTION AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. DESPITE THE DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY. IN
ADDITION...STORMS IN SOUTHERN UTAH WILL TEND TO MOVE SOUTH WHICH
RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWN DRAINAGE MOVEMENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE LESS
EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE STATE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN UTAH. ANTICIPATE A DRYING
TREND FOR THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION IN
THE SOUTH WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS CONFINED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AT THE SLC TERMINAL. WINDS SHOULD STAY GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. SHOWERS COULD CROSS THE TERMINAL AT TIMES
AFTER ABOUT 02- 04Z TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN IF A SHOWER
PASSES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY
SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE DISTRICT
TODAY...RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WETTING
RAINFALL. THE DISTRICT WILL SEE A SLOW DRYING TREND BEGINNING
TOMORROW. HOWEVER...MORE THAN ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH SOME
LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
ACROSS THE DISTRICT OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...GRAHAM
FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




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