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000
FXUS65 KSLC 232051
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
251 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A storm system from the Pacific Northwest to the
California coast will slide eastward across the Great Basin as the
workweek progresses, providing mild, but unsettled conditions. A
second storm system may impact the region Memorial Day
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)...
Water Vapor loop shows an expansive trough firmly in place across
the Western CONUS. One embedded wave is currently crossing Central
Utah while the next one off the Pacific coast will approach the West
Coast tonight. AMDAR 400-200MB wind observations place a 80-120kt
cyclonic jet from the Eastern Pacific across the Desert Southwest
and into the Upper Midwest. GOES/HRRR/12Z KSLC RAOB indicate the
precipitable water value ranges from 0.10"-0.20" Southwest Valleys
and mountains to 0.30"-0.50" most valleys.

Isolated to scattered convection across Northern Utah and Southwest
Wyoming will tend to gradually decay with loss of diurnal
warming, as shortwave ridging builds into the area tonight.

Tomorrow destabilization takes place similar fashion to today, as
with diffluence aloft increasing ahead of the upstream Pacific
wave we should be in line to see isolated to scattered convection
across the North, and expanded into the Central Mountains.

Closed low feature crosses Southern Nevada Wednesday with
deformation zone setting up over much of western Utah. Therefore
bumped pops up higher to account for the added dynamics with some
instability in place. Expanded POPs further southwest into Cedar
City and Bryce. Snow levels should range from 8000 to 9000 ft.

&&

.LONG TERM(AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...Models in general agreement in
opening up Upper low over far southern California as system slides
eastward. Timing differences do exist, with NAM offering a
compromise solution between faster GFS and slower ECMWF solution.
Though models suggest only modest upward forcing...deepest
moisture in place for Thursday, so have opted for precipitation
chances across forecast area.

While trough will slide east of forecast area on Friday, enough
residual moisture and instability will be in place to provide a
continued chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Another upper level system will pivot through the Pacific
Northwest and northern Rockies over the course of the week. While
the bulk of energy with this system will remain north of the
region, models suggest moisture in association with this system
will spread into Great Basin, providing a chance for showers and
thunderstorms primarily across northern half of forecast area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...For the rest of today and tomorrow expect more
sunshine low RH and warm temperatures across the South as
Southwest winds pick up. The North will see higher RH and more
clouds with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms but
still mild conditions. Snow Levels look to range 8000 to 9000 ft.

A storm system looks to take aim on the region Wednesday into
Friday. The biggest expected changes will be the extent of
convection should cover the entire region with more moist conditions
resulting across the south as a result. Initial convection could see
a high risk of gusty/erratic winds due to dry microbursts. With a
cold frontal passage Wednesday and Wednesday night Northwest flow
will become predominate. Temperatures and snow levels should remain
fairly steady through the week.

&&


.AVIATION...For the SLC terminal expecting VFR conditions through
the evening. Scattered clouds hugging the terrain should remain at
or above 8000k feet through the evening hours. Light northerly winds
are expected to switch to a southerly heading after 03z this
evening. Any shower or thunderstorm activity this evening only has a
20 percent chance of impacting the terminal. Winds will pick up in
strength around 17z Tuesday with an approaching trough feature.

&&

.SLC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
UT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rogowski
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Dewey

For more information from NOAA/s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php




000
FXUS65 KSLC 231516
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
916 AM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An elongated upper level trough stretching from southern
Canada to the California coast will maintain a mild southwest flow
over Utah early in the week. Cooler and more unsettled conditions
will return midweek as the trough shifts east through the Great
Basin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Water Vapor loop shows an expansive trough firmly in
place across the Western CONUS. One embedded wave is currently
crossing Central Utah while the next one off the Pacific coast
will approach the West Coast tonight. AMDAR 400-200MB wind
observations place a 80-120kt cyclonic jet from the Eastern
Pacific across the Desert Southwest and into the Upper Midwest.
GOES/HRRR/12Z KSLC RAOB indicate the precipitable water value
ranges from 0.10"-0.20" Southwest Valleys and mountains to
0.30"-0.50" most valleys.

Going forecast in great shape. Expecting periods of mid and high
clouds across Northern Utah downstream of the aforementioned wave.
Radar trends already indicate high based shower activity across
the North, which will continue to deepen especially near the
higher terrain with diurnal destabilization.

Only minor tweaks based on latest observational and model data.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A mean longwave trough remains in place over the western CONUS
this morning, with several embedded shortwave disturbances evident
on water vapor imagery. The first such feature is currently over
southern Nevada and will lift northeast across Utah today. Some
mid and high clouds have already spread into Utah ahead of this
trough, and a few weak showers are evident on radar across
northwest Utah. However, with a drier southerly flow spreading
across central Utah, showers and thunderstorms today should remain
confined to northern Utah with less coverage than in the past few
days. Otherwise, the airmass will see a warming trend today
although temperatures will remain a few degrees below
climatological normals across most areas.

After a bit of a lull in shower activity tonight, the next shortwave
disturbance, currently off the West Coast, will rotate into the area
tomorrow afternoon. This more energetic feature should bring a
slightly better chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area.

The third feature, currently just southwest of Vancouver Island,
will dive strongly south before swinging inland as a weak closed low
tomorrow night. This low will track across far northern Arizona and
could bring a small chance of showers to portions of southern Utah
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, another shortwave
disturbance is progged to rotate around the closed low currently
over southern Alberta/Saskatchewan and graze northern Utah. This
wave will help push a weak boundary into northern Utah which could
keep scattered showers in place across the northern and west-central
Utah Wednesday into Thursday morning.

The bulk of the Pacific trough is expected to exit to the east
through the day Thursday, but enough moisture and instability
should be in place to keep showers going through the afternoon.
Some warming and drying is expected Friday, as shortwave ridging
builds over the Rockies between storm systems.

The next system coming out of the Pacific Northwest is a large
closed low that is forecast to dig into western Idaho starting
Friday night. However, confidence beyond that is very low for Utah
and southwest Wyoming. The GFS hangs this low back to the west,
keeping the forecast area relatively dry and warm through the
weekend, while the ECMWF insists on pushing a decent cold front into
northern Utah on Saturday. While there isn`t a huge difference in
the placement of this low in the models, the devil is in the
details, and that is what keeps the nature of the weekend and beyond
sketchy. For now, have raised POPs to place them closer to
climatological values, with no major changes to most other forecast
elements for days 5-7.

&&

.AVIATION...A light southeast drainage wind will transition to a
northwest lake breeze around 17Z. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through the valid TAF period. While shower and
thunderstorm coverage across the Salt Lake Valley will be less
than occurred the last couple of days, there is a 20 percent
chance for a shower or thunderstorm to impact the KSLC terminal
from mid afternoon into this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tomorrow expect more sunshine low RH and
warm temperatures across the South as Southwest winds pick up. The
North will see higher RH and more clouds with isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms but still mild conditions.
Snow Levels look to range 7000 to 9000 ft.

A storm system looks to take aim on the region Wendesday into
Friday. The biggest expected changes will be the extent of
convection should cover the entire region with more moist
conditions resulting across the south as a result. Initial
convection could see a high risk of gusty/erratic winds due to dry
microbursts. With a cold frontal passage Wednesday and Wednesday
night Northwest flow will become predominate. Temperatures and
snow levels should remain fairly steady through the week.

&&

.SLC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rogowski/Cheng/Schoening
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
FIRE WEATHER...Rogowski

For more information from NOAA/s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php




000
FXUS65 KSLC 230039
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
639 PM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An elongated upper level trough stretching from
southern Canada to the California coast will maintain a mostly
dry and mild southwest flow over Utah early in the week. Cool
and unsettled conditions will return midweek as the trough
shifts east through the Great Basin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Water Vapor loop shows an expansive trough firmly in
place across the Western CONUS. AMDAR 400-200MB wind observations
place a 100-125kt cyclonic jet from West Central Utah into the
Northern Rockies. GOES/HRRR/00Z KSLC RAOB indicate the
precipitable water value ranges from 0.10"-0.20" Southwest
Valleys and mountains to 0.30"-0.50" most valleys.

Early update this evening to account for convective evolution per
regional radar. Threat of convection has been increased for the
Cache Valley and Northern Wasatch front, but little chance is seen
from Salt Lake southward. Still favor convection decaying by
midnight given waning instability and as shortwave ridging moves
overhead per RAP.

Another area of mid and upper clouds are expected to expand into
Northern Utah later tonight in advance of the next wave nearing
the western Utah border by sunrise.

Little other changes were made to the previous forecast.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
The shortwave lifting northeast across northern/central Utah will
maintain scattered convection across northern Utah/southwest
Wyoming through early this evening. Subsidence trailing this
dynamic feature will bring an end to most convection...with any
lingering activity confined to the Idaho border region and
possibly over far northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming later
tonight.

Monday looks to be a relatively quiet day in terms of convection.
Suspect that convection will be confined to the northern third of
the forecast area...with the model guidance suggesting that a weak
shortwave could ripple across the far north during the afternoon
and early evening hours. Southern and eastern Utah will be under
the influence of an increasingly strong and dry southwest flow
aloft. Do not see any real threat of convective precip in those
area...even in the higher terrain Monday afternoon.

The shortwave diving south along the west coast Monday will serve
to elongate the mean trough across the western CONUS. This trough
axis will extend from south-central Canada to the California
coast by Tuesday. A shortwave ejecting northeast from the base of
the now elongated trough will lift northeast through Utah Tuesday
afternoon/evening. This feature will find adequate moisture to
work confined to northern Utah/southwest Wyoming. Will limit Pops
to the areas with the best moisture...and keep QPFs on the low
side for now.

Cooler conditions will shift east into Utah Wednesday as the axis
of the still elongated trough settles along the Utah/Nevada
border. Precip will expand across a good portion of western and
northern Utah Wednesday afternoon/evening...though QPFs will
still remain towards the low side as PWAT values stay low outside
of the far northwest portion of the state.

With the elongated trough draped southwest across Utah and into
southeast California by late week, the unsettled and wet pattern
continues. Forecast models trend the trough into a cut off low for
a brief period, though it remains south of Utah in southern
Arizona through Friday. The southwest flow will change to west-
northwest across much of Utah with this progression by the end of
the week.

Models diverge on solutions by Saturday with the next upper low
developing off the Washington State coast and descending through the
Pacific Northwest. While the GFS solution wants to hold on to this
cut off low wobbling into California by the end of the weekend, the
ECMWF has changed ideas with the latest model run and now keeps an
open wave pattern and moves the trough east through Montana.
Needless to say confidence is a bit low into this next system, so
the forecast was changed very little in the far extended.

&&

.AVIATION...Light and variable winds will continue at the SLC
Terminal through 02Z...becoming predominately southerly at that
time.

&&

.SLC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rogowski/Conger/Dewey
AVIATION...Kruse

For more information from NOAA/s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php




000
FXUS65 KSLC 221102
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
502 AM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A broad upper level low pressure system will remain
over the western states through much of the week. This low pressure
will maintain periods of moist unsettled conditions across the
region throughout the week.

&&

SHORT TERM (Through 18z Wednesday)...A storm system remains parked
across the western CONUS this morning. However, the upper low center
has now tracked into southern Alberta, leaving the Great Basin under
a mean longwave trough. An embedded shortwave disturbance currently
near the south end of the Sierra Nevada will rotate into Utah late
this morning into this afternoon. This will enhance low-level
convergence into the existing boundary across west-central through
northeast Utah, which will provide the main focus for showers today.
Otherwise, the airmass will remain on the cool side given H7
temperatures in the -2 to -4C range across northern/western Utah and
0 to +2C across the southeast.

Weak shortwave ridging will develop briefly tonight, which should be
accompanied by a stable enough airmass to keep showers at bay.
However, another shortwave disturbance will quickly arrive over the
West Coast tomorrow while southwesterly flow develops over Utah. A
few showers are expected across mainly northern Utah out of the
lingering moisture and weak ripples embedded in the flow, otherwise
tomorrow will be relatively drier. This shortwave disturbance will
lift across Utah late tomorrow night into Tuesday bringing increased
shower activity once again. Temperatures will trend warmer for
Monday and Tuesday, but still remaining a few degrees below
climatological normals.

.LONG TERM (After 18Z Wednesday)...An upper level trough will remain
anchored over the interior west with a series of shortwave
disturbances moving through this trough. The GFS forecast was
preferred over the operational EC run after looking at the 12Z EC
ensemble mean which supported the GFS in keeping the trough axis
farther west over northern California rather than progressing it
into the western Great Basin. Consequently, went with a warmer and
drier forecast from Friday through Sunday. This farther west
position of the trough seems more reasonable due to climatology and
recent tracks of storm systems.

Southerly winds will become breezy Friday, Saturday and Sunday,
especially over western valleys. Temperatures will climb from near
or slightly below normal early in the week to above normal Friday
through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...A storm system over Nevada this morning will move
NE across the SLC terminal between 15 and 19Z although there is a 30
percent chance that this time reference is 1-2 hrs too early. There
is a 40 percent chance of MVFR conditions between 16 and 19Z. Winds
will shift to west with the passage of this storm system but could
be more erratic than westerly. Clearing will occur this evening.

&&

.SLC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Cheng/Struthwolf

For more information from NOAA/s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php




000
FXUS65 KSLC 221102 CCA
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
502 AM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A broad upper level low pressure system will remain
over the western states through much of the week. This low pressure
will maintain periods of moist unsettled conditions across the
region throughout the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 18z Wednesday)...A storm system remains parked
across the western CONUS this morning. However, the upper low center
has now tracked into southern Alberta, leaving the Great Basin under
a mean longwave trough. An embedded shortwave disturbance currently
near the south end of the Sierra Nevada will rotate into Utah late
this morning into this afternoon. This will enhance low-level
convergence into the existing boundary across west-central through
northeast Utah, which will provide the main focus for showers today.
Otherwise, the airmass will remain on the cool side given H7
temperatures in the -2 to -4C range across northern/western Utah and
0 to +2C across the southeast.

Weak shortwave ridging will develop briefly tonight, which should be
accompanied by a stable enough airmass to keep showers at bay.
However, another shortwave disturbance will quickly arrive over the
West Coast tomorrow while southwesterly flow develops over Utah. A
few showers are expected across mainly northern Utah out of the
lingering moisture and weak ripples embedded in the flow, otherwise
tomorrow will be relatively drier. This shortwave disturbance will
lift across Utah late tomorrow night into Tuesday bringing increased
shower activity once again. Temperatures will trend warmer for
Monday and Tuesday, but still remaining a few degrees below
climatological normals.

.LONG TERM (After 18Z Wednesday)...An upper level trough will remain
anchored over the interior west with a series of shortwave
disturbances moving through this trough. The GFS forecast was
preferred over the operational EC run after looking at the 12Z EC
ensemble mean which supported the GFS in keeping the trough axis
farther west over northern California rather than progressing it
into the western Great Basin. Consequently, went with a warmer and
drier forecast from Friday through Sunday. This farther west
position of the trough seems more reasonable due to climatology and
recent tracks of storm systems.

Southerly winds will become breezy Friday, Saturday and Sunday,
especially over western valleys. Temperatures will climb from near
or slightly below normal early in the week to above normal Friday
through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...A storm system over Nevada this morning will move
NE across the SLC terminal between 15 and 19Z although there is a 30
percent chance that this time reference is 1-2 hrs too early. There
is a 40 percent chance of MVFR conditions between 16 and 19Z. Winds
will shift to west with the passage of this storm system but could
be more erratic than westerly. Clearing will occur this evening.

&&

.SLC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Cheng/Struthwolf

For more information from NOAA/s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php




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