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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301856
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...QUITE A FEW SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER PR
CURRENTLY AND EXPECT A LITTLE URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT THEY WILL BEHAVE THEMSELVES
AND EVEN DECREASE BEFORE 5PM AS THE CLOUD COVER IS BECOMING QUITE
EXPANSIVE...CUTTING OFF THE SOURCE OF HEAT.

UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL CREEP WEST
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE RIDGE AT THAT LEVEL SETTLES OVER EASTERN
CARIBBEAN INTO MID-WEEK. SO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE 500 MB IS
ALREADY DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL NO LONGER HELP IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AFTER TODAY.

DRY ADVECTION TO KICK IN SUNDAY THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
BEGIN THE DAY WITH NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. EASTERLY TRADES WILL
RETURN ISLAND TO TYPICAL FAR WEST PR SHOWERS/THUNDER AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. EXTREMELY WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVES TUE BUT
WITHOUT MUCH WAVE DYNAMICS TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SO
EXPECT THE NEXT WAVE OF NOTE TO ONE CURRENTLY HANGING BACK AT 30W
WHICH GFS EXPECTS TO ARRIVE THU NIGHT/FRI. IT LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE
ON SATELLITE AND LIMITED FURTHER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN THE WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND W PR AFTER THRU 21Z...W/ISOLD TSRA IN AND AROUND TJMZ. VCTS
POSSIBLE NEAR TJPS/TJBQ AND VFR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THEN...PASSING
-SHRA WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT
AND OVERNIGHT. L/LVL WNDS FM E-NE 10-20 KTS UP FL100.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE DROPPED TO 4 FT OR LESS AT BUOYS THOUGH WOULD
EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON SINCE THE DIURNAL NATURE
OF THE WINDS HAS KICKED UP TODAY. BUT 5 FT APPEARS THE LIMIT IN
SHORT TERM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  88  79  89 /  40  30  30  30
STT  78  89  79  89 /  50  30  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

11/54






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301856
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...QUITE A FEW SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER PR
CURRENTLY AND EXPECT A LITTLE URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT THEY WILL BEHAVE THEMSELVES
AND EVEN DECREASE BEFORE 5PM AS THE CLOUD COVER IS BECOMING QUITE
EXPANSIVE...CUTTING OFF THE SOURCE OF HEAT.

UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL CREEP WEST
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE RIDGE AT THAT LEVEL SETTLES OVER EASTERN
CARIBBEAN INTO MID-WEEK. SO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE 500 MB IS
ALREADY DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL NO LONGER HELP IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AFTER TODAY.

DRY ADVECTION TO KICK IN SUNDAY THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
BEGIN THE DAY WITH NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. EASTERLY TRADES WILL
RETURN ISLAND TO TYPICAL FAR WEST PR SHOWERS/THUNDER AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. EXTREMELY WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVES TUE BUT
WITHOUT MUCH WAVE DYNAMICS TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SO
EXPECT THE NEXT WAVE OF NOTE TO ONE CURRENTLY HANGING BACK AT 30W
WHICH GFS EXPECTS TO ARRIVE THU NIGHT/FRI. IT LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE
ON SATELLITE AND LIMITED FURTHER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN THE WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND W PR AFTER THRU 21Z...W/ISOLD TSRA IN AND AROUND TJMZ. VCTS
POSSIBLE NEAR TJPS/TJBQ AND VFR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THEN...PASSING
-SHRA WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT
AND OVERNIGHT. L/LVL WNDS FM E-NE 10-20 KTS UP FL100.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE DROPPED TO 4 FT OR LESS AT BUOYS THOUGH WOULD
EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON SINCE THE DIURNAL NATURE
OF THE WINDS HAS KICKED UP TODAY. BUT 5 FT APPEARS THE LIMIT IN
SHORT TERM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  88  79  89 /  40  30  30  30
STT  78  89  79  89 /  50  30  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

11/54





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301538
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1138 AM AST SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...MORNING TJSJ SOUNDING CAME IN FAIRLY WET AND UNSTABLE
WITH PW VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES AND K-INDEX ABOVE 30. BLENDED PWAT
ANALYSIS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HR. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH STRONGER CELLS
DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
STEERING FLOW WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA BREEZES ALONG THE
COAST...RESULTING IN BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER WESTERN PR
LATER TODAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCAL ASSESSMENT TOOLS SUGGEST THAT THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PR DUE TO RELATIVELY DRY AND COLD AIR
AT MID-LEVELS AS WELL AS THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PR...LIKELY IN AND AROUND TJMZ...WITH POSSIBLE VCTS FOR
TJBQ AND TJPS. TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED BTWN 18-21Z.
LLVL EASTERLY WINDS OF 10-20KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT
NEAR TSRA WHERE GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 3-5 FT AND WINDS OF 12-17 KT CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NO ADVISORY OR PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT ARE
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE LABOR WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM AST SAT AUG 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL
REGION AND REMAINS AS THE WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TUTT LOW...NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES
WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. A WEAK TROPICAL ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY.

DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
AFFECTED VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE USVI AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...MOST AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
FEW DAYS...AS THE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES FURTHER
WEST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION...PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
EACH DAY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD APPROACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY...INDUCING A
MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

AVIATION...PASSING TRADE WIND -SHRA/SHRA WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND EN ROUTE BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARD TIL
30/14Z. SFC WINDS LGT AND VRB AT LCL TAF SITES TIL AT LEAST
30/14Z...BCMG E-NE 10-15 KTS THEREAFTER WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.
SCT-NMRS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FCST ACROSS CENTRAL AND W PR AFTER
30/17Z...W/ISOLD TSRA VCTY TJMZ AND TJBQ PSBL. L/LVL WNDS FM E-NE
5-15 KTS UP FL150 BCMG FM SW AT 10-20 KTS UP TO FL350.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION A GENERALLY QUIET MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  76  88  78 /  50  40  30  40
STT  88  78  89  79 /  50  50  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

11/54





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301538
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1138 AM AST SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...MORNING TJSJ SOUNDING CAME IN FAIRLY WET AND UNSTABLE
WITH PW VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES AND K-INDEX ABOVE 30. BLENDED PWAT
ANALYSIS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HR. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH STRONGER CELLS
DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
STEERING FLOW WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA BREEZES ALONG THE
COAST...RESULTING IN BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER WESTERN PR
LATER TODAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCAL ASSESSMENT TOOLS SUGGEST THAT THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PR DUE TO RELATIVELY DRY AND COLD AIR
AT MID-LEVELS AS WELL AS THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PR...LIKELY IN AND AROUND TJMZ...WITH POSSIBLE VCTS FOR
TJBQ AND TJPS. TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED BTWN 18-21Z.
LLVL EASTERLY WINDS OF 10-20KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT
NEAR TSRA WHERE GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 3-5 FT AND WINDS OF 12-17 KT CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NO ADVISORY OR PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT ARE
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE LABOR WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM AST SAT AUG 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL
REGION AND REMAINS AS THE WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TUTT LOW...NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES
WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. A WEAK TROPICAL ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY.

DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
AFFECTED VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE USVI AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...MOST AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
FEW DAYS...AS THE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES FURTHER
WEST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION...PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
EACH DAY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD APPROACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY...INDUCING A
MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

AVIATION...PASSING TRADE WIND -SHRA/SHRA WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND EN ROUTE BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARD TIL
30/14Z. SFC WINDS LGT AND VRB AT LCL TAF SITES TIL AT LEAST
30/14Z...BCMG E-NE 10-15 KTS THEREAFTER WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.
SCT-NMRS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FCST ACROSS CENTRAL AND W PR AFTER
30/17Z...W/ISOLD TSRA VCTY TJMZ AND TJBQ PSBL. L/LVL WNDS FM E-NE
5-15 KTS UP FL150 BCMG FM SW AT 10-20 KTS UP TO FL350.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION A GENERALLY QUIET MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  76  88  78 /  50  40  30  40
STT  88  78  89  79 /  50  50  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

11/54





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301538
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1138 AM AST SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...MORNING TJSJ SOUNDING CAME IN FAIRLY WET AND UNSTABLE
WITH PW VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES AND K-INDEX ABOVE 30. BLENDED PWAT
ANALYSIS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HR. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH STRONGER CELLS
DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
STEERING FLOW WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA BREEZES ALONG THE
COAST...RESULTING IN BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER WESTERN PR
LATER TODAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCAL ASSESSMENT TOOLS SUGGEST THAT THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PR DUE TO RELATIVELY DRY AND COLD AIR
AT MID-LEVELS AS WELL AS THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PR...LIKELY IN AND AROUND TJMZ...WITH POSSIBLE VCTS FOR
TJBQ AND TJPS. TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED BTWN 18-21Z.
LLVL EASTERLY WINDS OF 10-20KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT
NEAR TSRA WHERE GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 3-5 FT AND WINDS OF 12-17 KT CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NO ADVISORY OR PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT ARE
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE LABOR WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM AST SAT AUG 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL
REGION AND REMAINS AS THE WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TUTT LOW...NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES
WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. A WEAK TROPICAL ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY.

DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
AFFECTED VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE USVI AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...MOST AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
FEW DAYS...AS THE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES FURTHER
WEST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION...PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
EACH DAY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD APPROACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY...INDUCING A
MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

AVIATION...PASSING TRADE WIND -SHRA/SHRA WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND EN ROUTE BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARD TIL
30/14Z. SFC WINDS LGT AND VRB AT LCL TAF SITES TIL AT LEAST
30/14Z...BCMG E-NE 10-15 KTS THEREAFTER WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.
SCT-NMRS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FCST ACROSS CENTRAL AND W PR AFTER
30/17Z...W/ISOLD TSRA VCTY TJMZ AND TJBQ PSBL. L/LVL WNDS FM E-NE
5-15 KTS UP FL150 BCMG FM SW AT 10-20 KTS UP TO FL350.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION A GENERALLY QUIET MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  76  88  78 /  50  40  30  40
STT  88  78  89  79 /  50  50  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

11/54





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301538
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1138 AM AST SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...MORNING TJSJ SOUNDING CAME IN FAIRLY WET AND UNSTABLE
WITH PW VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES AND K-INDEX ABOVE 30. BLENDED PWAT
ANALYSIS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HR. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH STRONGER CELLS
DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
STEERING FLOW WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA BREEZES ALONG THE
COAST...RESULTING IN BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER WESTERN PR
LATER TODAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCAL ASSESSMENT TOOLS SUGGEST THAT THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PR DUE TO RELATIVELY DRY AND COLD AIR
AT MID-LEVELS AS WELL AS THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PR...LIKELY IN AND AROUND TJMZ...WITH POSSIBLE VCTS FOR
TJBQ AND TJPS. TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED BTWN 18-21Z.
LLVL EASTERLY WINDS OF 10-20KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT
NEAR TSRA WHERE GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 3-5 FT AND WINDS OF 12-17 KT CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NO ADVISORY OR PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT ARE
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE LABOR WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM AST SAT AUG 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL
REGION AND REMAINS AS THE WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TUTT LOW...NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES
WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. A WEAK TROPICAL ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY.

DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
AFFECTED VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE USVI AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...MOST AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
FEW DAYS...AS THE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES FURTHER
WEST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION...PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
EACH DAY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD APPROACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY...INDUCING A
MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

AVIATION...PASSING TRADE WIND -SHRA/SHRA WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND EN ROUTE BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARD TIL
30/14Z. SFC WINDS LGT AND VRB AT LCL TAF SITES TIL AT LEAST
30/14Z...BCMG E-NE 10-15 KTS THEREAFTER WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.
SCT-NMRS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FCST ACROSS CENTRAL AND W PR AFTER
30/17Z...W/ISOLD TSRA VCTY TJMZ AND TJBQ PSBL. L/LVL WNDS FM E-NE
5-15 KTS UP FL150 BCMG FM SW AT 10-20 KTS UP TO FL350.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION A GENERALLY QUIET MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  76  88  78 /  50  40  30  40
STT  88  78  89  79 /  50  50  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

11/54





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300827 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
426 AM AST SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL
REGION AND REMAINS AS THE WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TUTT LOW...NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES
WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. A WEAK TROPICAL ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
AFFECTED VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE USVI AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...MOST AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
FEW DAYS...AS THE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES FURTHER
WEST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION...PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
EACH DAY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD APPROACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY...INDUCING A
MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING TRADE WIND -SHRA/SHRA WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND EN ROUTE BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARD TIL
30/14Z. SFC WINDS LGT AND VRB AT LCL TAF SITES TIL AT LEAST
30/14Z...BCMG E-NE 10-15 KTS THEREAFTER WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.
SCT-NMRS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FCST ACROSS CENTRAL AND W PR AFTER
30/17Z...W/ISOLD TSRA VCTY TJMZ AND TJBQ PSBL. L/LVL WNDS FM E-NE
5-15 KTS UP FL150 BCMG FM SW AT 10-20 KTS UP TO FL350.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION A GENERALLY QUIET MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  76  88  78 /  50  40  30  40
STT  88  78  89  79 /  50  50  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/72





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300827 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
426 AM AST SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL
REGION AND REMAINS AS THE WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TUTT LOW...NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES
WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. A WEAK TROPICAL ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
AFFECTED VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE USVI AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...MOST AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
FEW DAYS...AS THE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES FURTHER
WEST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION...PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
EACH DAY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD APPROACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY...INDUCING A
MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING TRADE WIND -SHRA/SHRA WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND EN ROUTE BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARD TIL
30/14Z. SFC WINDS LGT AND VRB AT LCL TAF SITES TIL AT LEAST
30/14Z...BCMG E-NE 10-15 KTS THEREAFTER WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.
SCT-NMRS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FCST ACROSS CENTRAL AND W PR AFTER
30/17Z...W/ISOLD TSRA VCTY TJMZ AND TJBQ PSBL. L/LVL WNDS FM E-NE
5-15 KTS UP FL150 BCMG FM SW AT 10-20 KTS UP TO FL350.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION A GENERALLY QUIET MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  76  88  78 /  50  40  30  40
STT  88  78  89  79 /  50  50  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/72






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300818
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
418 AM AST SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL
REGION AND REMAINS AS THE WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TUTT LOW...NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES
WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. A WEAK TROPICAL ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
AFFECTED VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE USVI AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...MOST AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
FEW DAYS...AS THE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES FURTHER
WEST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION...PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
EACH DAY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD APPROACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY...INDUCING A
MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE PR
TERMINALS WHILE THE USVI/BVI SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND EASTERLY. WINDS
BECOMING EASTERLY THROUGH THE TERMINALS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AFTER 30/13Z. NMRS SHRA ISOLD/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL PR AFTER
30/18Z...TSRA IN AND AROUND TJMZ IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION A GENERALLY QUIET MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  76  88  78 /  50  40  30  40
STT  88  78  89  79 /  50  50  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/72






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300818
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
418 AM AST SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL
REGION AND REMAINS AS THE WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TUTT LOW...NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES
WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. A WEAK TROPICAL ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
AFFECTED VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE USVI AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...MOST AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
FEW DAYS...AS THE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES FURTHER
WEST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION...PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
EACH DAY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD APPROACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY...INDUCING A
MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE PR
TERMINALS WHILE THE USVI/BVI SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND EASTERLY. WINDS
BECOMING EASTERLY THROUGH THE TERMINALS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AFTER 30/13Z. NMRS SHRA ISOLD/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL PR AFTER
30/18Z...TSRA IN AND AROUND TJMZ IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION A GENERALLY QUIET MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  76  88  78 /  50  40  30  40
STT  88  78  89  79 /  50  50  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/72






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300818
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
418 AM AST SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL
REGION AND REMAINS AS THE WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TUTT LOW...NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES
WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. A WEAK TROPICAL ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
AFFECTED VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE USVI AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...MOST AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
FEW DAYS...AS THE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES FURTHER
WEST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION...PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
EACH DAY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD APPROACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY...INDUCING A
MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE PR
TERMINALS WHILE THE USVI/BVI SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND EASTERLY. WINDS
BECOMING EASTERLY THROUGH THE TERMINALS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AFTER 30/13Z. NMRS SHRA ISOLD/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL PR AFTER
30/18Z...TSRA IN AND AROUND TJMZ IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION A GENERALLY QUIET MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  76  88  78 /  50  40  30  40
STT  88  78  89  79 /  50  50  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/72






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300818
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
418 AM AST SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL
REGION AND REMAINS AS THE WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TUTT LOW...NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES
WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. A WEAK TROPICAL ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
AFFECTED VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE USVI AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...MOST AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
FEW DAYS...AS THE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES FURTHER
WEST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION...PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
EACH DAY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD APPROACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY...INDUCING A
MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE PR
TERMINALS WHILE THE USVI/BVI SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND EASTERLY. WINDS
BECOMING EASTERLY THROUGH THE TERMINALS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AFTER 30/13Z. NMRS SHRA ISOLD/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL PR AFTER
30/18Z...TSRA IN AND AROUND TJMZ IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION A GENERALLY QUIET MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  76  88  78 /  50  40  30  40
STT  88  78  89  79 /  50  50  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/72






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300233
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1033 PM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...30/00Z SOUNDING CAME IN FAIRLY WET AND JUST ABOVE 2
INCHES IN PRECIPITABLE WATER. WINDS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED
CONSIDERABLY AT LOWER LEVELS. RADAR SHOWS INCREASING SMALL SHOWERS
ACROSS ALL WATERS EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF PUERTO RICO WITH A FEW
SHOWERS MOVING INLAND AS OF 10 PM AST.


&&

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST SOUNDING FROM THE GFS FOR TOMORROW SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASING WITH MOST OF THE DECREASE AROUND 20
KFT. THE CURRENT 30/00Z SOUNDING...HOWEVER WAS CONSIDERABLY DRIER
THAN THE FORECAST SOUNDING AT THIS HEIGHT AND SO MUST CONSIDER
THAT THIS DRYING HAD ALREADY OCCURRED AND THAT CURRENT INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY...THOUGH AS EXPECTED...IS OCCURRING IN THIS
ALREADY SOMEWHAT DRIER ATMOSPHERE. THIS INDICATES THAT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE
FORECAST BY THE NAM MOVES IN FROM THE EAST...BUT ALSO THAT
INSTABILITY PRESENT AND TOMORROW`S HEATING WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE BUMPED POPS A LITTLE
HIGHER IN LIGHT OF THIS. NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING EXCEPT
THAT EASTERN PUERTO RICO MAY RECEIVE MORE RAINFALL THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE PR
TERMINALS WHILE THE USVI/BVI SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND EASTERLY. WINDS
BECOMING EASTERLY THROUGH THE TERMINALS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AFTER 30/13Z. NMRS SHRA ISOLD/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL PR AFTER
30/18Z...TSRA IN AND AROUND TJMZ IS POSSIBLE. MTN OBSCURATIONS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SOMEWHAT TOMORROW AND
EXERCISE CAUTION AREAS WILL BE RE-INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST
SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM AST FRI AUG 29 2014/

SYNOPSIS...RIDGE PATTERN WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS TUTT LOW...NOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...
MOVES WESTWARD. AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A PAIR OF
TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS NEXT WORKWEEK.

DISCUSSION...AS INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE ITZC WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIFTED NORTHWARDS
ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS. THEREFORE STILL EXPECT TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. RIDGE ALOFT
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT LOW MOVES
FURTHER WEST DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THIS FEATURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY
WIND FLOW...MOST AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED A DECREASING TREND IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS TREND COMBINED WITH BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN
WITH A FEW TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING
FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
THEREFORE...SO FAR LOOKING FOR GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE IS A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC THAT AREA EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE MID AND LATER PART OF NEXT WORKWEEK.

AVIATION...WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY EASTERLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PR WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS TIL AROUND 29/22Z. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH
DUE TO THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH ABOVE 20KFT. VFR AFT 29/22Z
FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH VCSH POSSIBLE FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND TJSJ.

MARINE...A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

IN TERMS OF SEAS...SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC DUE TO SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET. ELSEWHERE SEAS WILL BE 5
FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  89  78  89 /  10  50  40  30
STT  78  89  79  88 /  40  50  50  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300233
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1033 PM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...30/00Z SOUNDING CAME IN FAIRLY WET AND JUST ABOVE 2
INCHES IN PRECIPITABLE WATER. WINDS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED
CONSIDERABLY AT LOWER LEVELS. RADAR SHOWS INCREASING SMALL SHOWERS
ACROSS ALL WATERS EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF PUERTO RICO WITH A FEW
SHOWERS MOVING INLAND AS OF 10 PM AST.


&&

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST SOUNDING FROM THE GFS FOR TOMORROW SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASING WITH MOST OF THE DECREASE AROUND 20
KFT. THE CURRENT 30/00Z SOUNDING...HOWEVER WAS CONSIDERABLY DRIER
THAN THE FORECAST SOUNDING AT THIS HEIGHT AND SO MUST CONSIDER
THAT THIS DRYING HAD ALREADY OCCURRED AND THAT CURRENT INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY...THOUGH AS EXPECTED...IS OCCURRING IN THIS
ALREADY SOMEWHAT DRIER ATMOSPHERE. THIS INDICATES THAT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE
FORECAST BY THE NAM MOVES IN FROM THE EAST...BUT ALSO THAT
INSTABILITY PRESENT AND TOMORROW`S HEATING WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE BUMPED POPS A LITTLE
HIGHER IN LIGHT OF THIS. NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING EXCEPT
THAT EASTERN PUERTO RICO MAY RECEIVE MORE RAINFALL THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE PR
TERMINALS WHILE THE USVI/BVI SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND EASTERLY. WINDS
BECOMING EASTERLY THROUGH THE TERMINALS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AFTER 30/13Z. NMRS SHRA ISOLD/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL PR AFTER
30/18Z...TSRA IN AND AROUND TJMZ IS POSSIBLE. MTN OBSCURATIONS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SOMEWHAT TOMORROW AND
EXERCISE CAUTION AREAS WILL BE RE-INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST
SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM AST FRI AUG 29 2014/

SYNOPSIS...RIDGE PATTERN WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS TUTT LOW...NOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...
MOVES WESTWARD. AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A PAIR OF
TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS NEXT WORKWEEK.

DISCUSSION...AS INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE ITZC WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIFTED NORTHWARDS
ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS. THEREFORE STILL EXPECT TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. RIDGE ALOFT
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT LOW MOVES
FURTHER WEST DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THIS FEATURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY
WIND FLOW...MOST AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED A DECREASING TREND IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS TREND COMBINED WITH BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN
WITH A FEW TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING
FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
THEREFORE...SO FAR LOOKING FOR GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE IS A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC THAT AREA EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE MID AND LATER PART OF NEXT WORKWEEK.

AVIATION...WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY EASTERLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PR WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS TIL AROUND 29/22Z. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH
DUE TO THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH ABOVE 20KFT. VFR AFT 29/22Z
FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH VCSH POSSIBLE FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND TJSJ.

MARINE...A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

IN TERMS OF SEAS...SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC DUE TO SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET. ELSEWHERE SEAS WILL BE 5
FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  89  78  89 /  10  50  40  30
STT  78  89  79  88 /  40  50  50  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300233
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1033 PM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...30/00Z SOUNDING CAME IN FAIRLY WET AND JUST ABOVE 2
INCHES IN PRECIPITABLE WATER. WINDS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED
CONSIDERABLY AT LOWER LEVELS. RADAR SHOWS INCREASING SMALL SHOWERS
ACROSS ALL WATERS EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF PUERTO RICO WITH A FEW
SHOWERS MOVING INLAND AS OF 10 PM AST.


&&

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST SOUNDING FROM THE GFS FOR TOMORROW SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASING WITH MOST OF THE DECREASE AROUND 20
KFT. THE CURRENT 30/00Z SOUNDING...HOWEVER WAS CONSIDERABLY DRIER
THAN THE FORECAST SOUNDING AT THIS HEIGHT AND SO MUST CONSIDER
THAT THIS DRYING HAD ALREADY OCCURRED AND THAT CURRENT INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY...THOUGH AS EXPECTED...IS OCCURRING IN THIS
ALREADY SOMEWHAT DRIER ATMOSPHERE. THIS INDICATES THAT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE
FORECAST BY THE NAM MOVES IN FROM THE EAST...BUT ALSO THAT
INSTABILITY PRESENT AND TOMORROW`S HEATING WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE BUMPED POPS A LITTLE
HIGHER IN LIGHT OF THIS. NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING EXCEPT
THAT EASTERN PUERTO RICO MAY RECEIVE MORE RAINFALL THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE PR
TERMINALS WHILE THE USVI/BVI SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND EASTERLY. WINDS
BECOMING EASTERLY THROUGH THE TERMINALS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AFTER 30/13Z. NMRS SHRA ISOLD/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL PR AFTER
30/18Z...TSRA IN AND AROUND TJMZ IS POSSIBLE. MTN OBSCURATIONS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SOMEWHAT TOMORROW AND
EXERCISE CAUTION AREAS WILL BE RE-INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST
SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM AST FRI AUG 29 2014/

SYNOPSIS...RIDGE PATTERN WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS TUTT LOW...NOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...
MOVES WESTWARD. AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A PAIR OF
TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS NEXT WORKWEEK.

DISCUSSION...AS INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE ITZC WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIFTED NORTHWARDS
ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS. THEREFORE STILL EXPECT TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. RIDGE ALOFT
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT LOW MOVES
FURTHER WEST DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THIS FEATURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY
WIND FLOW...MOST AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED A DECREASING TREND IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS TREND COMBINED WITH BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN
WITH A FEW TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING
FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
THEREFORE...SO FAR LOOKING FOR GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE IS A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC THAT AREA EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE MID AND LATER PART OF NEXT WORKWEEK.

AVIATION...WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY EASTERLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PR WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS TIL AROUND 29/22Z. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH
DUE TO THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH ABOVE 20KFT. VFR AFT 29/22Z
FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH VCSH POSSIBLE FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND TJSJ.

MARINE...A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

IN TERMS OF SEAS...SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC DUE TO SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET. ELSEWHERE SEAS WILL BE 5
FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  89  78  89 /  10  50  40  30
STT  78  89  79  88 /  40  50  50  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300233
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1033 PM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...30/00Z SOUNDING CAME IN FAIRLY WET AND JUST ABOVE 2
INCHES IN PRECIPITABLE WATER. WINDS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED
CONSIDERABLY AT LOWER LEVELS. RADAR SHOWS INCREASING SMALL SHOWERS
ACROSS ALL WATERS EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF PUERTO RICO WITH A FEW
SHOWERS MOVING INLAND AS OF 10 PM AST.


&&

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST SOUNDING FROM THE GFS FOR TOMORROW SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASING WITH MOST OF THE DECREASE AROUND 20
KFT. THE CURRENT 30/00Z SOUNDING...HOWEVER WAS CONSIDERABLY DRIER
THAN THE FORECAST SOUNDING AT THIS HEIGHT AND SO MUST CONSIDER
THAT THIS DRYING HAD ALREADY OCCURRED AND THAT CURRENT INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY...THOUGH AS EXPECTED...IS OCCURRING IN THIS
ALREADY SOMEWHAT DRIER ATMOSPHERE. THIS INDICATES THAT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE
FORECAST BY THE NAM MOVES IN FROM THE EAST...BUT ALSO THAT
INSTABILITY PRESENT AND TOMORROW`S HEATING WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE BUMPED POPS A LITTLE
HIGHER IN LIGHT OF THIS. NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING EXCEPT
THAT EASTERN PUERTO RICO MAY RECEIVE MORE RAINFALL THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE PR
TERMINALS WHILE THE USVI/BVI SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND EASTERLY. WINDS
BECOMING EASTERLY THROUGH THE TERMINALS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AFTER 30/13Z. NMRS SHRA ISOLD/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL PR AFTER
30/18Z...TSRA IN AND AROUND TJMZ IS POSSIBLE. MTN OBSCURATIONS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SOMEWHAT TOMORROW AND
EXERCISE CAUTION AREAS WILL BE RE-INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST
SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM AST FRI AUG 29 2014/

SYNOPSIS...RIDGE PATTERN WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS TUTT LOW...NOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...
MOVES WESTWARD. AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A PAIR OF
TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS NEXT WORKWEEK.

DISCUSSION...AS INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE ITZC WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIFTED NORTHWARDS
ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS. THEREFORE STILL EXPECT TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. RIDGE ALOFT
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT LOW MOVES
FURTHER WEST DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THIS FEATURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY
WIND FLOW...MOST AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED A DECREASING TREND IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS TREND COMBINED WITH BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN
WITH A FEW TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING
FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
THEREFORE...SO FAR LOOKING FOR GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE IS A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC THAT AREA EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE MID AND LATER PART OF NEXT WORKWEEK.

AVIATION...WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY EASTERLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PR WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS TIL AROUND 29/22Z. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH
DUE TO THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH ABOVE 20KFT. VFR AFT 29/22Z
FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH VCSH POSSIBLE FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND TJSJ.

MARINE...A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

IN TERMS OF SEAS...SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC DUE TO SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET. ELSEWHERE SEAS WILL BE 5
FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  89  78  89 /  10  50  40  30
STT  78  89  79  88 /  40  50  50  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291903
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE PATTERN WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS TUTT LOW...NOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...
MOVES WESTWARD. AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A PAIR OF
TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS NEXT WORKWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE ITZC WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIFTED NORTHWARDS
ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS. THEREFORE STILL EXPECT TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. RIDGE ALOFT
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT LOW MOVES
FURTHER WEST DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THIS FEATURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY
WIND FLOW...MOST AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED A DECREASING TREND IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS TREND COMBINED WITH BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN
WITH A FEW TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING
FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
THEREFORE...SO FAR LOOKING FOR GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE IS A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC THAT AREA EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE MID AND LATER PART OF NEXT WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY EASTERLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PR WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS TIL AROUND 29/22Z. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH
DUE TO THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH ABOVE 20KFT. VFR AFT 29/22Z
FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH VCSH POSSIBLE FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND TJSJ.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

IN TERMS OF SEAS...SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC DUE TO SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET. ELSEWHERE SEAS WILL BE 5
FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  89  78  89 /  50  50  40  30
STT  78  89  79  88 /  50  50  50  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291903
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE PATTERN WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS TUTT LOW...NOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...
MOVES WESTWARD. AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A PAIR OF
TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS NEXT WORKWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE ITZC WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIFTED NORTHWARDS
ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS. THEREFORE STILL EXPECT TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. RIDGE ALOFT
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT LOW MOVES
FURTHER WEST DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THIS FEATURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY
WIND FLOW...MOST AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED A DECREASING TREND IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS TREND COMBINED WITH BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN
WITH A FEW TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING
FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
THEREFORE...SO FAR LOOKING FOR GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE IS A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC THAT AREA EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE MID AND LATER PART OF NEXT WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY EASTERLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PR WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS TIL AROUND 29/22Z. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH
DUE TO THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH ABOVE 20KFT. VFR AFT 29/22Z
FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH VCSH POSSIBLE FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND TJSJ.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

IN TERMS OF SEAS...SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC DUE TO SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET. ELSEWHERE SEAS WILL BE 5
FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  89  78  89 /  50  50  40  30
STT  78  89  79  88 /  50  50  50  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291903
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE PATTERN WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS TUTT LOW...NOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...
MOVES WESTWARD. AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A PAIR OF
TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS NEXT WORKWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE ITZC WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIFTED NORTHWARDS
ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS. THEREFORE STILL EXPECT TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. RIDGE ALOFT
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT LOW MOVES
FURTHER WEST DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THIS FEATURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY
WIND FLOW...MOST AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED A DECREASING TREND IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS TREND COMBINED WITH BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN
WITH A FEW TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING
FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
THEREFORE...SO FAR LOOKING FOR GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE IS A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC THAT AREA EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE MID AND LATER PART OF NEXT WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY EASTERLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PR WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS TIL AROUND 29/22Z. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH
DUE TO THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH ABOVE 20KFT. VFR AFT 29/22Z
FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH VCSH POSSIBLE FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND TJSJ.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

IN TERMS OF SEAS...SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC DUE TO SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET. ELSEWHERE SEAS WILL BE 5
FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  89  78  89 /  50  50  40  30
STT  78  89  79  88 /  50  50  50  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291903
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE PATTERN WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS TUTT LOW...NOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...
MOVES WESTWARD. AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A PAIR OF
TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS NEXT WORKWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE ITZC WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIFTED NORTHWARDS
ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS. THEREFORE STILL EXPECT TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. RIDGE ALOFT
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT LOW MOVES
FURTHER WEST DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THIS FEATURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY
WIND FLOW...MOST AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED A DECREASING TREND IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS TREND COMBINED WITH BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN
WITH A FEW TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING
FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
THEREFORE...SO FAR LOOKING FOR GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE IS A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC THAT AREA EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE MID AND LATER PART OF NEXT WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY EASTERLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PR WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS TIL AROUND 29/22Z. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH
DUE TO THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH ABOVE 20KFT. VFR AFT 29/22Z
FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH VCSH POSSIBLE FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND TJSJ.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

IN TERMS OF SEAS...SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC DUE TO SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET. ELSEWHERE SEAS WILL BE 5
FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  89  78  89 /  50  50  40  30
STT  78  89  79  88 /  50  50  50  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291437 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1037 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...HIGH CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...HOWEVER
THEY MOVED AWAY BY MID-MORNING...LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MOST
OF PR AND ST. CROIX. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY THE USUAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS FROM EAST TO WEST DUE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR AND THE
SAN JUAN METRO AREA. LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA THIS MORNING WITH PASSING SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS TIST. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR...LIKELY AFFECTING
AREAS IN AND AROUND TJPS...TJMZ...TJBQ AND TJSJ.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DECREASING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC DUE TO SEAS OF 6 FEET OR SO. ELSEWHERE
SEAS WILL BE 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS 17 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 714 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014/

SYNOPSIS...RETROGRESSING TUTT LOW JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST WHILE GRADUALLY FILLING. AT LOW
LEVELS TUTT INDUCED LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS IT PULLS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL HELP TO LOOSEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WHICH IN TURN WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECREASING OF
THE LOCAL TRADE WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...BROAD SWATH OF ITCZ MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED NORTHWARDS
ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO QUICKLY MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT LOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE
EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AND LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS...LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO AID IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO.

FAIR AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE
OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS FAIRLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL THEREFORE INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AND POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY. LATEST GFS COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST
INCREASING THETA-E VALUES UP TO NEAR 338K WITH PWAT VALUES TO RANGE
BETWEEN 1.8 TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES. THEREFORE FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND
EXPECT A MIXTURE OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS WITH PERIODS OF EARLY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY
AT TIMES ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND ON SATURDAY. SO FAR LOOKING FOR
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THIS MORNING WITH PASSING SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TIST AND TISX. SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. AFTER 29/13Z WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY AT AROUND
10 KNOTS WITH AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR OF PR...LIKELY AFFECTING AREAS IN AND AROUND TJPS...TJMZ...
AND TJBQ.

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC DUE TO SEAS OF 6 FEET OR SO. ELSEWHERE SEAS WILL BE 5
FEET OR LESS AND WINDS 17 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  89  78 /  50  50  50  50
STT  87  78  89  79 /  40  50  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/23





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291437 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1037 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...HIGH CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...HOWEVER
THEY MOVED AWAY BY MID-MORNING...LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MOST
OF PR AND ST. CROIX. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY THE USUAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS FROM EAST TO WEST DUE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR AND THE
SAN JUAN METRO AREA. LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA THIS MORNING WITH PASSING SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS TIST. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR...LIKELY AFFECTING
AREAS IN AND AROUND TJPS...TJMZ...TJBQ AND TJSJ.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DECREASING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC DUE TO SEAS OF 6 FEET OR SO. ELSEWHERE
SEAS WILL BE 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS 17 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 714 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014/

SYNOPSIS...RETROGRESSING TUTT LOW JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST WHILE GRADUALLY FILLING. AT LOW
LEVELS TUTT INDUCED LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS IT PULLS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL HELP TO LOOSEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WHICH IN TURN WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECREASING OF
THE LOCAL TRADE WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...BROAD SWATH OF ITCZ MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED NORTHWARDS
ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO QUICKLY MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT LOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE
EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AND LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS...LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO AID IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO.

FAIR AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE
OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS FAIRLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL THEREFORE INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AND POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY. LATEST GFS COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST
INCREASING THETA-E VALUES UP TO NEAR 338K WITH PWAT VALUES TO RANGE
BETWEEN 1.8 TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES. THEREFORE FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND
EXPECT A MIXTURE OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS WITH PERIODS OF EARLY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY
AT TIMES ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND ON SATURDAY. SO FAR LOOKING FOR
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THIS MORNING WITH PASSING SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TIST AND TISX. SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. AFTER 29/13Z WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY AT AROUND
10 KNOTS WITH AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR OF PR...LIKELY AFFECTING AREAS IN AND AROUND TJPS...TJMZ...
AND TJBQ.

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC DUE TO SEAS OF 6 FEET OR SO. ELSEWHERE SEAS WILL BE 5
FEET OR LESS AND WINDS 17 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  89  78 /  50  50  50  50
STT  87  78  89  79 /  40  50  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291114 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
714 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RETROGRESSING TUTT LOW JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST WHILE GRADUALLY FILLING. AT LOW
LEVELS TUTT INDUCED LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS IT PULLS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL HELP TO LOOSEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WHICH IN TURN WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECREASING OF
THE LOCAL TRADE WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BROAD SWATH OF ITCZ MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED NORTHWARDS
ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO QUICKLY MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT LOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE
EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AND LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS...LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO AID IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO.

FAIR AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE
OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS FAIRLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL THEREFORE INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AND POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY. LATEST GFS COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST
INCREASING THETA-E VALUES UP TO NEAR 338K WITH PWAT VALUES TO RANGE
BETWEEN 1.8 TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES. THEREFORE FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND
EXPECT A MIXTURE OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS WITH PERIODS OF EARLY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY
AT TIMES ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND ON SATURDAY. SO FAR LOOKING FOR
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THIS MORNING WITH PASSING SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TIST AND TISX. SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. AFTER 29/13Z WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY AT AROUND
10 KNOTS WITH AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR OF PR...LIKELY AFFECTING AREAS IN AND AROUND TJPS...TJMZ...
AND TJBQ.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC DUE TO SEAS OF 6 FEET OR SO. ELSEWHERE SEAS WILL BE 5
FEET OR LESS AND WINDS 17 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  89  78 /  50  50  50  50
STT  87  78  89  79 /  40  50  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/09





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291114 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
714 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RETROGRESSING TUTT LOW JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST WHILE GRADUALLY FILLING. AT LOW
LEVELS TUTT INDUCED LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS IT PULLS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL HELP TO LOOSEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WHICH IN TURN WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECREASING OF
THE LOCAL TRADE WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BROAD SWATH OF ITCZ MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED NORTHWARDS
ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO QUICKLY MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT LOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE
EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AND LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS...LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO AID IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO.

FAIR AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE
OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS FAIRLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL THEREFORE INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AND POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY. LATEST GFS COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST
INCREASING THETA-E VALUES UP TO NEAR 338K WITH PWAT VALUES TO RANGE
BETWEEN 1.8 TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES. THEREFORE FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND
EXPECT A MIXTURE OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS WITH PERIODS OF EARLY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY
AT TIMES ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND ON SATURDAY. SO FAR LOOKING FOR
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THIS MORNING WITH PASSING SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TIST AND TISX. SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. AFTER 29/13Z WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY AT AROUND
10 KNOTS WITH AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR OF PR...LIKELY AFFECTING AREAS IN AND AROUND TJPS...TJMZ...
AND TJBQ.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC DUE TO SEAS OF 6 FEET OR SO. ELSEWHERE SEAS WILL BE 5
FEET OR LESS AND WINDS 17 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  89  78 /  50  50  50  50
STT  87  78  89  79 /  40  50  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/09






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290901
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
501 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014



.SYNOPSIS...RETROGRESSING TUTT LOW JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST WHILE GRADUALLY FILLING. AT
LOW LEVELS TUTT INDUCED LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY...AS IT PULLS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL HELP TO LOOSEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WHICH IN TURN WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECREASING OF
THE LOCAL TRADE WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BROAD SWATH OF ITCZ MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED NORTHWARDS
ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO QUICKLY MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT LOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE
EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AND LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS...LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO AID IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO.

FAIR AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE
OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS FAIRLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL THEREFORE INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AND POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY. LATEST GFS COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST
INCREASING THETA-E VALUES UP TO NEAR 338K WITH PWAT VALUES TO RANGE
BETWEEN 1.8 TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES. THEREFORE FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND
EXPECT A MIXTURE OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS WITH PERIODS OF EARLY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY
AT TIMES ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND ON SATURDAY. SO FAR LOOKING FOR
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THIS MORNING WITH PASSING SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TIST AND TISX. SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. AFTER 29/13Z WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY AT AROUND
10 KNOTS WITH AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR OF PR...LIKELY AFFECTING AREAS IN AND AROUND TJPS...TJMZ...
AND TJBQ.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC DUE TO SEAS OF 6 FEET OR SO. ELSEWHERE SEAS WILL BE 5
FEET OR LESS AND WINDS 17 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  89  78 /  50  50  50  50
STT  87  78  89  79 /  40  50  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/09






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290901
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
501 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014



.SYNOPSIS...RETROGRESSING TUTT LOW JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST WHILE GRADUALLY FILLING. AT
LOW LEVELS TUTT INDUCED LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY...AS IT PULLS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL HELP TO LOOSEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WHICH IN TURN WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECREASING OF
THE LOCAL TRADE WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BROAD SWATH OF ITCZ MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED NORTHWARDS
ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO QUICKLY MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT LOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE
EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AND LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS...LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO AID IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO.

FAIR AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE
OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS FAIRLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL THEREFORE INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AND POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY. LATEST GFS COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST
INCREASING THETA-E VALUES UP TO NEAR 338K WITH PWAT VALUES TO RANGE
BETWEEN 1.8 TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES. THEREFORE FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND
EXPECT A MIXTURE OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS WITH PERIODS OF EARLY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY
AT TIMES ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND ON SATURDAY. SO FAR LOOKING FOR
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THIS MORNING WITH PASSING SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TIST AND TISX. SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. AFTER 29/13Z WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY AT AROUND
10 KNOTS WITH AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR OF PR...LIKELY AFFECTING AREAS IN AND AROUND TJPS...TJMZ...
AND TJBQ.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC DUE TO SEAS OF 6 FEET OR SO. ELSEWHERE SEAS WILL BE 5
FEET OR LESS AND WINDS 17 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  89  78 /  50  50  50  50
STT  87  78  89  79 /  40  50  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/09





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290146
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
946 PM AST THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...A BAND OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INTERSECT PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS ANOTHER MOISTURE MASS APPROACHES THE
SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIMIC PRODUCT IS THE MOST
INSTRUCTIONAL AS IT SHOWS A VERY RICH AIR MASS JUST TO THE SOUTH
WITH THE AXIS OF THE MOISTURE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH. SAHARAN DUST HAS CLEANED UP SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
VISIBILITIES OUTSIDE OF RAIN AREAS APPROACHING 40 PLUS MILES.
LITTLE DUST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE HIGHER POPS
ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER HOWEVER INCREASES TO ALMOST 2.1
INCHES IN THE WRF AND OVER 2.0 IN THE GFS. ALSO OF NOTE IS THAT
STRONG DIVERGENCE PASSES OVER THE ISLAND BETWEEN 29/06-12Z. THIS
MAY NOT BE AS INFLUENTIAL AS IT COULD BE OWING TO THE LACK OF
HEATING AT THE SURFACE. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE EAST AND CENTRAL PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE
SOUTH COAST...AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
USVI BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL GET AT LEAST A FEW HUNDREDTHS
EVERYWHERE THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LOCAL TAF SITES WITH
PASSING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT POSSIBLY CAUSING BRIEF MVFR CONDS.
OVERNIGHT SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS PR
WHILE THE USVI/BVI SHOULD HAVE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. PREVAILING
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT GENERALLY AT
FL050 OR ABOVE. AFTER 29/13Z WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY AT AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR
OF PR...LIKELY AFFECTING AREAS IN AND AROUND TJPS...TJMZ...AND TJBQ.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE SUBSIDING EVERYWHERE EXCEPT JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN LOWERED AND WINDS
WILL ABATE SLOWLY ALLOWING SEAS TO RELAX SOME MORE. ATLANTIC SEAS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LABOR DAY WHILE ATLANTIC SEAS WILL FALL
THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHEST SEAS TEND TO HAVE THE LONGEST PERIODS.
SEAS CLOSEST TO SAINT THOMAS AND VIEQUES HAVE DROPPED THE MOST...WITH
SOME SEAS ACTUALLY LOWER THAN 3 FEET IN PROTECTED AREAS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM AST THU AUG 28 2014/

SYNOPSIS...RETROGRESSING TUTT LOW NOW CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF
THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER WEST NORTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT LOW LEVELS...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND AN EASTERLY
PERTURBATION/TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASE THE LOCAL TRADE WINDS GENERATING A WINDS SURGE WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS AND AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

DISCUSSION...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER WAS OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AS
EASTERLY PERTURBATION MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...OVER
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED. A STREAMER
FROM VIEQUES DEVELOPED...PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN
SECTION OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH 2 PM AST THIS
AFTERNOON...REST OF PUERTO RICO WAS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
A RETROGRESSING TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND WILL BE LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL
REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW...IN COMBINATION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTERLY PERTURBATION AND DAYTIME HEATING...ARE
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY
BOTH DAYS. GFS COMPUTER MODEL INDICATED THETA-E VALUES AT 700MB
WILL INCREASE UP TO 335K WITH PW VALUES REACHING 2.0 INCHES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. IN THE LONG RANGE...AT THIS TIME..NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALMOST ALL TAF SITES. TJSJ
28/12Z SOUNDING INDICATED STRONG EASTERLY WINDS OF 20 KTS TO UP TO
AS MUCH AS 40 KNOTS BLO FL150. EXPECT BRIEF SFC WND GUST AT ALL TAF
SITES TIL AROUND 28/22Z. MVFR LIKELY IN AT TJMZ DUE TO SHRA/ISOLD
TSRA AND VCSH NR TJBQ TIL 28/22Z.

MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FRIDAY. HOWEVER..SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AD
WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  77  89 /  50  50  50  50
STT  79  88  77  88 /  40  30  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/12








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290146
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
946 PM AST THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...A BAND OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INTERSECT PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS ANOTHER MOISTURE MASS APPROACHES THE
SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIMIC PRODUCT IS THE MOST
INSTRUCTIONAL AS IT SHOWS A VERY RICH AIR MASS JUST TO THE SOUTH
WITH THE AXIS OF THE MOISTURE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH. SAHARAN DUST HAS CLEANED UP SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
VISIBILITIES OUTSIDE OF RAIN AREAS APPROACHING 40 PLUS MILES.
LITTLE DUST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE HIGHER POPS
ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER HOWEVER INCREASES TO ALMOST 2.1
INCHES IN THE WRF AND OVER 2.0 IN THE GFS. ALSO OF NOTE IS THAT
STRONG DIVERGENCE PASSES OVER THE ISLAND BETWEEN 29/06-12Z. THIS
MAY NOT BE AS INFLUENTIAL AS IT COULD BE OWING TO THE LACK OF
HEATING AT THE SURFACE. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE EAST AND CENTRAL PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE
SOUTH COAST...AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
USVI BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL GET AT LEAST A FEW HUNDREDTHS
EVERYWHERE THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LOCAL TAF SITES WITH
PASSING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT POSSIBLY CAUSING BRIEF MVFR CONDS.
OVERNIGHT SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS PR
WHILE THE USVI/BVI SHOULD HAVE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. PREVAILING
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT GENERALLY AT
FL050 OR ABOVE. AFTER 29/13Z WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY AT AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR
OF PR...LIKELY AFFECTING AREAS IN AND AROUND TJPS...TJMZ...AND TJBQ.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE SUBSIDING EVERYWHERE EXCEPT JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN LOWERED AND WINDS
WILL ABATE SLOWLY ALLOWING SEAS TO RELAX SOME MORE. ATLANTIC SEAS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LABOR DAY WHILE ATLANTIC SEAS WILL FALL
THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHEST SEAS TEND TO HAVE THE LONGEST PERIODS.
SEAS CLOSEST TO SAINT THOMAS AND VIEQUES HAVE DROPPED THE MOST...WITH
SOME SEAS ACTUALLY LOWER THAN 3 FEET IN PROTECTED AREAS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM AST THU AUG 28 2014/

SYNOPSIS...RETROGRESSING TUTT LOW NOW CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF
THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER WEST NORTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT LOW LEVELS...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND AN EASTERLY
PERTURBATION/TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASE THE LOCAL TRADE WINDS GENERATING A WINDS SURGE WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS AND AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

DISCUSSION...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER WAS OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AS
EASTERLY PERTURBATION MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...OVER
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED. A STREAMER
FROM VIEQUES DEVELOPED...PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN
SECTION OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH 2 PM AST THIS
AFTERNOON...REST OF PUERTO RICO WAS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
A RETROGRESSING TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND WILL BE LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL
REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW...IN COMBINATION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTERLY PERTURBATION AND DAYTIME HEATING...ARE
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY
BOTH DAYS. GFS COMPUTER MODEL INDICATED THETA-E VALUES AT 700MB
WILL INCREASE UP TO 335K WITH PW VALUES REACHING 2.0 INCHES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. IN THE LONG RANGE...AT THIS TIME..NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALMOST ALL TAF SITES. TJSJ
28/12Z SOUNDING INDICATED STRONG EASTERLY WINDS OF 20 KTS TO UP TO
AS MUCH AS 40 KNOTS BLO FL150. EXPECT BRIEF SFC WND GUST AT ALL TAF
SITES TIL AROUND 28/22Z. MVFR LIKELY IN AT TJMZ DUE TO SHRA/ISOLD
TSRA AND VCSH NR TJBQ TIL 28/22Z.

MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FRIDAY. HOWEVER..SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AD
WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  77  89 /  50  50  50  50
STT  79  88  77  88 /  40  30  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/12









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