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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 181839
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WERE GENERALLY MINIMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...INDUCING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT MOSTLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY...PRODUCING A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. NOT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL AT LEAST THE CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA TONIGHT WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS.
LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW UP TO 15
KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 20K FEET...BECOMING
WESTERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE 20K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  82  70  84 /  20  10  10  10
STT  74  86  75  86 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

71/72





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 181839
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WERE GENERALLY MINIMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...INDUCING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT MOSTLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY...PRODUCING A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. NOT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL AT LEAST THE CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA TONIGHT WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS.
LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW UP TO 15
KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 20K FEET...BECOMING
WESTERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE 20K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  82  70  84 /  20  10  10  10
STT  74  86  75  86 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

71/72





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 181839
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WERE GENERALLY MINIMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...INDUCING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT MOSTLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY...PRODUCING A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. NOT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL AT LEAST THE CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA TONIGHT WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS.
LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW UP TO 15
KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 20K FEET...BECOMING
WESTERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE 20K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  82  70  84 /  20  10  10  10
STT  74  86  75  86 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

71/72





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 181839
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WERE GENERALLY MINIMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...INDUCING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT MOSTLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY...PRODUCING A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. NOT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL AT LEAST THE CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA TONIGHT WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS.
LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW UP TO 15
KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 20K FEET...BECOMING
WESTERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE 20K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  82  70  84 /  20  10  10  10
STT  74  86  75  86 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

71/72





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 181520
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1120 AM AST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTED THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW TRANSPORTED THESE SHOWERS FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS
INLAND TO THE NORTH AND EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO. PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE REGION THE REST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH. LATEST TJSJ 18/12Z
SOUNDING REVEALED VERY DRY AIR AT MID AND UPPER LEVEL OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH BETTER MOISTURE AT LOWER LEVELS. NO CHANGES NEEDED
TO FORECAST GRIDS THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER MOST TERMINAL
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST 18/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM AST THU DEC 18 2014/

SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.

DISCUSSION...A WEAK MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SFC-700 MB TROF IN THE EASTERLIES. THIS WILL YIELD SHALLOW
ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST PR AND ST. CROIX TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROF AXIS IN COOL NORTHEAST FLOW. OTHERWISE...MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FRIDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY LEADING TO
STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND FAIR WX CONDITIONS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
-SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PR AND USVI TERMINALS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT
BELOW FL050.

MARINE...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 15 KT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS.
SEAS 4-6 FT IN MIXED SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  75  82  70 /  20  20  10  10
STT  84  76  85  73 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

71/72






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 180804
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
404 AM AST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SFC-700 MB TROF IN THE EASTERLIES. THIS WILL YIELD SHALLOW
ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST PR AND ST. CROIX TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROF AXIS IN COOL NORTHEAST FLOW. OTHERWISE...MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FRIDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY LEADING TO
STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND FAIR WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
-SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PR AND USVI TERMINALS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT
BELOW FL050.

&&

.MARINE...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 15 KT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS.
SEAS 4-6 FT IN MIXED SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  75  82  70 /  20  20  10  10
STT  84  76  85  73 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/64








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 180804
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
404 AM AST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SFC-700 MB TROF IN THE EASTERLIES. THIS WILL YIELD SHALLOW
ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST PR AND ST. CROIX TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROF AXIS IN COOL NORTHEAST FLOW. OTHERWISE...MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FRIDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY LEADING TO
STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND FAIR WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
-SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PR AND USVI TERMINALS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT
BELOW FL050.

&&

.MARINE...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 15 KT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS.
SEAS 4-6 FT IN MIXED SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  75  82  70 /  20  20  10  10
STT  84  76  85  73 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/64








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 180804
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
404 AM AST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SFC-700 MB TROF IN THE EASTERLIES. THIS WILL YIELD SHALLOW
ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST PR AND ST. CROIX TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROF AXIS IN COOL NORTHEAST FLOW. OTHERWISE...MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FRIDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY LEADING TO
STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND FAIR WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
-SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PR AND USVI TERMINALS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT
BELOW FL050.

&&

.MARINE...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 15 KT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS.
SEAS 4-6 FT IN MIXED SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  75  82  70 /  20  20  10  10
STT  84  76  85  73 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/64








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 180804
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
404 AM AST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SFC-700 MB TROF IN THE EASTERLIES. THIS WILL YIELD SHALLOW
ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST PR AND ST. CROIX TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROF AXIS IN COOL NORTHEAST FLOW. OTHERWISE...MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FRIDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY LEADING TO
STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND FAIR WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
-SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PR AND USVI TERMINALS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT
BELOW FL050.

&&

.MARINE...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 15 KT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS.
SEAS 4-6 FT IN MIXED SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  75  82  70 /  20  20  10  10
STT  84  76  85  73 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/64








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 180804
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
404 AM AST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SFC-700 MB TROF IN THE EASTERLIES. THIS WILL YIELD SHALLOW
ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST PR AND ST. CROIX TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROF AXIS IN COOL NORTHEAST FLOW. OTHERWISE...MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FRIDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY LEADING TO
STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND FAIR WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
-SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PR AND USVI TERMINALS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT
BELOW FL050.

&&

.MARINE...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 15 KT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS.
SEAS 4-6 FT IN MIXED SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  75  82  70 /  20  20  10  10
STT  84  76  85  73 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/64








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 180804
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
404 AM AST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SFC-700 MB TROF IN THE EASTERLIES. THIS WILL YIELD SHALLOW
ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST PR AND ST. CROIX TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROF AXIS IN COOL NORTHEAST FLOW. OTHERWISE...MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FRIDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY LEADING TO
STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND FAIR WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
-SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PR AND USVI TERMINALS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT
BELOW FL050.

&&

.MARINE...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 15 KT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS.
SEAS 4-6 FT IN MIXED SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  75  82  70 /  20  20  10  10
STT  84  76  85  73 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 180220
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1020 PM AST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...SKIES BECAME MOSTLY CLEAR OVER LAND DURING THE EVENING HOURS
WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS.
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY REACH THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS...BUT MOSTLY LIGHT WITH SHALLOW PASSING CLOUDS. EXPECT A
CONTINUED DRYING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ALOFT AND PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE AND OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN BOTH
SUGGEST LITTLE OR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLAND ON THURSDAY
EXCEPT FOR A FEW EARLY MORNING SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY LIMITED TO NO
SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PRD. SOME VCSH
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT TJSJ/TJBQ...TIST/TISX AND TNCM/TKPK. SCT CLOUDS
AT FL025/FL060/FL250. NE WINDS 5-10 KT BELOW FL050...WITH STRONG WRLY
FLOW ABV FL200.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR
LESS TO CONTINUE...WITH OFFSHORE SEAS 5 FEET...2-4 FEET NEAR SHORE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM AST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE DRY AIR ADVECTION AND LOW RAIN
CHANCES THRU SATURDAY. GFS SHOWS A SLIGHT SURGE IN THE FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES. OTHERWISE...A DRY PATTERN SHOULD EXIST. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE COOL THU MORNING AWAY FROM THE COAST UNDER VERY DRY AIRMASS
WITH MID 50S LIKELY IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OF OROCOVIS...JAYUYA
AND ADJUNTAS. TEMPS WILL THEN REBOUND FRI THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THU. E TO NE WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS BELOW 050AGL.
N/NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS ABOVE 100AGL VEERING TO N/NE OVERNIGHT AND
THU...DECREASING A BIT 10-15 KNOTS.

MARINE...
WINDS AOB 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS 4-5 FT IN MIXED
SWELLS AND WIND WAVES ON THE OPEN ATLANTIC/CARIBBEAN...2 TO 3 FEET
NEAR THE EAST/SOUTH/WEST COASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  82  75  83 /  10  10  10  20
STT  76  85  76  85 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

11/09





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 180220
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1020 PM AST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...SKIES BECAME MOSTLY CLEAR OVER LAND DURING THE EVENING HOURS
WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS.
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY REACH THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS...BUT MOSTLY LIGHT WITH SHALLOW PASSING CLOUDS. EXPECT A
CONTINUED DRYING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ALOFT AND PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE AND OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN BOTH
SUGGEST LITTLE OR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLAND ON THURSDAY
EXCEPT FOR A FEW EARLY MORNING SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY LIMITED TO NO
SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PRD. SOME VCSH
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT TJSJ/TJBQ...TIST/TISX AND TNCM/TKPK. SCT CLOUDS
AT FL025/FL060/FL250. NE WINDS 5-10 KT BELOW FL050...WITH STRONG WRLY
FLOW ABV FL200.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR
LESS TO CONTINUE...WITH OFFSHORE SEAS 5 FEET...2-4 FEET NEAR SHORE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM AST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE DRY AIR ADVECTION AND LOW RAIN
CHANCES THRU SATURDAY. GFS SHOWS A SLIGHT SURGE IN THE FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES. OTHERWISE...A DRY PATTERN SHOULD EXIST. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE COOL THU MORNING AWAY FROM THE COAST UNDER VERY DRY AIRMASS
WITH MID 50S LIKELY IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OF OROCOVIS...JAYUYA
AND ADJUNTAS. TEMPS WILL THEN REBOUND FRI THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THU. E TO NE WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS BELOW 050AGL.
N/NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS ABOVE 100AGL VEERING TO N/NE OVERNIGHT AND
THU...DECREASING A BIT 10-15 KNOTS.

MARINE...
WINDS AOB 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS 4-5 FT IN MIXED
SWELLS AND WIND WAVES ON THE OPEN ATLANTIC/CARIBBEAN...2 TO 3 FEET
NEAR THE EAST/SOUTH/WEST COASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  82  75  83 /  10  10  10  20
STT  76  85  76  85 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

11/09






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 171913
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE DRY AIR ADVECTION AND LOW RAIN
CHANCES THRU SATURDAY. GFS SHOWS A SLIGHT SURGE IN THE FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES. OTHERWISE...A DRY PATTERN SHOULD EXIST. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE COOL THU MORNING AWAY FROM THE COAST UNDER VERY DRY AIRMASS
WITH MID 50S LIKELY IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OF OROCOVIS...JAYUYA
AND ADJUNTAS. TEMPS WILL THEN REBOUND FRI THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THU. E TO NE WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS BELOW 050AGL.
N/NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS ABOVE 100AGL VEERING TO N/NE OVERNIGHT AND
THU...DECREASING A BIT 10-15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AOB 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS 4-5 FT IN MIXED
SWELLS AND WIND WAVES ON THE OPEN ATLANTIC/CARIBBEAN...2 TO 3 FEET
NEAR THE EAST/SOUTH/WEST COASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  82  75  83 /  10  10  10  20
STT  76  85  76  85 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

28/WFO MLB





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 171913
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE DRY AIR ADVECTION AND LOW RAIN
CHANCES THRU SATURDAY. GFS SHOWS A SLIGHT SURGE IN THE FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES. OTHERWISE...A DRY PATTERN SHOULD EXIST. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE COOL THU MORNING AWAY FROM THE COAST UNDER VERY DRY AIRMASS
WITH MID 50S LIKELY IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OF OROCOVIS...JAYUYA
AND ADJUNTAS. TEMPS WILL THEN REBOUND FRI THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THU. E TO NE WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS BELOW 050AGL.
N/NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS ABOVE 100AGL VEERING TO N/NE OVERNIGHT AND
THU...DECREASING A BIT 10-15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AOB 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS 4-5 FT IN MIXED
SWELLS AND WIND WAVES ON THE OPEN ATLANTIC/CARIBBEAN...2 TO 3 FEET
NEAR THE EAST/SOUTH/WEST COASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  82  75  83 /  10  10  10  20
STT  76  85  76  85 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

28/WFO MLB





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 171913
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE DRY AIR ADVECTION AND LOW RAIN
CHANCES THRU SATURDAY. GFS SHOWS A SLIGHT SURGE IN THE FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES. OTHERWISE...A DRY PATTERN SHOULD EXIST. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE COOL THU MORNING AWAY FROM THE COAST UNDER VERY DRY AIRMASS
WITH MID 50S LIKELY IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OF OROCOVIS...JAYUYA
AND ADJUNTAS. TEMPS WILL THEN REBOUND FRI THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THU. E TO NE WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS BELOW 050AGL.
N/NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS ABOVE 100AGL VEERING TO N/NE OVERNIGHT AND
THU...DECREASING A BIT 10-15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AOB 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS 4-5 FT IN MIXED
SWELLS AND WIND WAVES ON THE OPEN ATLANTIC/CARIBBEAN...2 TO 3 FEET
NEAR THE EAST/SOUTH/WEST COASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  82  75  83 /  10  10  10  20
STT  76  85  76  85 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

28/WFO MLB





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 171913
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE DRY AIR ADVECTION AND LOW RAIN
CHANCES THRU SATURDAY. GFS SHOWS A SLIGHT SURGE IN THE FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES. OTHERWISE...A DRY PATTERN SHOULD EXIST. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE COOL THU MORNING AWAY FROM THE COAST UNDER VERY DRY AIRMASS
WITH MID 50S LIKELY IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OF OROCOVIS...JAYUYA
AND ADJUNTAS. TEMPS WILL THEN REBOUND FRI THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THU. E TO NE WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS BELOW 050AGL.
N/NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS ABOVE 100AGL VEERING TO N/NE OVERNIGHT AND
THU...DECREASING A BIT 10-15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AOB 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS 4-5 FT IN MIXED
SWELLS AND WIND WAVES ON THE OPEN ATLANTIC/CARIBBEAN...2 TO 3 FEET
NEAR THE EAST/SOUTH/WEST COASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  82  75  83 /  10  10  10  20
STT  76  85  76  85 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

28/WFO MLB





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 171446 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1045 AM AST WED DEC 17 2014


.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. CONTINUED DRY AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY ON NORTHEAST WINDS. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ON THE NORTH AND EAST
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL
WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. -SHRA POSSIBLE INVOF
TJSJ/TIST/TISX THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. E TO NE WINDS 5-15 KT
BELOW FL050...WITH STRONG W/NW FLOW ABV FL100.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AOB 15 KT THE ENTIRE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD. SEAS 4-6 FT IN MIXED
SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  82  75  82  75 /  10  10  10  10
STT  84  76  85  76 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

28






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 171446 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1045 AM AST WED DEC 17 2014


.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. CONTINUED DRY AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY ON NORTHEAST WINDS. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ON THE NORTH AND EAST
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL
WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. -SHRA POSSIBLE INVOF
TJSJ/TIST/TISX THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. E TO NE WINDS 5-15 KT
BELOW FL050...WITH STRONG W/NW FLOW ABV FL100.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AOB 15 KT THE ENTIRE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD. SEAS 4-6 FT IN MIXED
SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  82  75  82  75 /  10  10  10  10
STT  84  76  85  76 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

28






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 171446 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1045 AM AST WED DEC 17 2014


.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. CONTINUED DRY AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY ON NORTHEAST WINDS. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ON THE NORTH AND EAST
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL
WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. -SHRA POSSIBLE INVOF
TJSJ/TIST/TISX THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. E TO NE WINDS 5-15 KT
BELOW FL050...WITH STRONG W/NW FLOW ABV FL100.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AOB 15 KT THE ENTIRE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD. SEAS 4-6 FT IN MIXED
SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  82  75  82  75 /  10  10  10  10
STT  84  76  85  76 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

28






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 171446 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1045 AM AST WED DEC 17 2014


.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. CONTINUED DRY AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY ON NORTHEAST WINDS. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ON THE NORTH AND EAST
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL
WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. -SHRA POSSIBLE INVOF
TJSJ/TIST/TISX THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. E TO NE WINDS 5-15 KT
BELOW FL050...WITH STRONG W/NW FLOW ABV FL100.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AOB 15 KT THE ENTIRE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD. SEAS 4-6 FT IN MIXED
SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  82  75  82  75 /  10  10  10  10
STT  84  76  85  76 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

28






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 170801
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
401 AM AST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUG THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THU NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A 17/0450Z JSJ ACARS SHOWED THE PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS
COME DOWN TO 1.56 INCHES FROM 1.80 INCHES OBSERVED EARLIER AT
17/00Z ON JSJ RAOB. CONTINUED DRY AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY
ON NORTHEAST WINDS. SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA NE OF THE AREA WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA NEXT 36 HRS AS A
SHORTWAVE-TROUGH WITH AXIS OVR THE SERN GLFMEX SWINGS RAPIDLY
EWD. THIS WILL LEAD TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVR THE LOCAL AREA
THIS EVENING WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY
LEADING TO SHARP DRYING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS THU NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK SUSTAINING A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LEADING TO FAIR WX CONDITIONS. OVERALL...VERY DRY WX
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL
THU MORNING AWAY FROM THE COAST UNDER VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH MID
50S LIKELY IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OF OROCOVIS...JAYUYA AND
ADJUNTAS. TEMPS WILL THEN REBOUND FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...-SHRA POSSIBLE IN/AROUND THE VICINITY OF
TJSJ/TIST/TISX THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCT/BKN LAYERS
AROUND FL100 ACROSS TISX AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 17/12Z. E TO NE WINDS 5-15 KT BELOW
FL050...WITH STRONG WRLY FLOW ABV FL100.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AOB 15 KT THE ENTIRE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD. SEAS 4-6 FT
IN MIXED SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF 3.82 INCHES WAS SET
YDAY AT THE SJU LMM INT`L ARPT. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 1.43
INCHES SET BACK IN 1910.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  82  75  82  75 /  10  10  10  10
STT  84  76  85  76 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/64









000
FXCA62 TJSJ 170801
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
401 AM AST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUG THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THU NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A 17/0450Z JSJ ACARS SHOWED THE PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS
COME DOWN TO 1.56 INCHES FROM 1.80 INCHES OBSERVED EARLIER AT
17/00Z ON JSJ RAOB. CONTINUED DRY AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY
ON NORTHEAST WINDS. SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA NE OF THE AREA WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA NEXT 36 HRS AS A
SHORTWAVE-TROUGH WITH AXIS OVR THE SERN GLFMEX SWINGS RAPIDLY
EWD. THIS WILL LEAD TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVR THE LOCAL AREA
THIS EVENING WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY
LEADING TO SHARP DRYING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS THU NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK SUSTAINING A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LEADING TO FAIR WX CONDITIONS. OVERALL...VERY DRY WX
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL
THU MORNING AWAY FROM THE COAST UNDER VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH MID
50S LIKELY IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OF OROCOVIS...JAYUYA AND
ADJUNTAS. TEMPS WILL THEN REBOUND FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...-SHRA POSSIBLE IN/AROUND THE VICINITY OF
TJSJ/TIST/TISX THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCT/BKN LAYERS
AROUND FL100 ACROSS TISX AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 17/12Z. E TO NE WINDS 5-15 KT BELOW
FL050...WITH STRONG WRLY FLOW ABV FL100.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AOB 15 KT THE ENTIRE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD. SEAS 4-6 FT
IN MIXED SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF 3.82 INCHES WAS SET
YDAY AT THE SJU LMM INT`L ARPT. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 1.43
INCHES SET BACK IN 1910.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  82  75  82  75 /  10  10  10  10
STT  84  76  85  76 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/64








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 170801
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
401 AM AST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUG THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THU NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A 17/0450Z JSJ ACARS SHOWED THE PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS
COME DOWN TO 1.56 INCHES FROM 1.80 INCHES OBSERVED EARLIER AT
17/00Z ON JSJ RAOB. CONTINUED DRY AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY
ON NORTHEAST WINDS. SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA NE OF THE AREA WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA NEXT 36 HRS AS A
SHORTWAVE-TROUGH WITH AXIS OVR THE SERN GLFMEX SWINGS RAPIDLY
EWD. THIS WILL LEAD TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVR THE LOCAL AREA
THIS EVENING WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY
LEADING TO SHARP DRYING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS THU NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK SUSTAINING A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LEADING TO FAIR WX CONDITIONS. OVERALL...VERY DRY WX
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL
THU MORNING AWAY FROM THE COAST UNDER VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH MID
50S LIKELY IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OF OROCOVIS...JAYUYA AND
ADJUNTAS. TEMPS WILL THEN REBOUND FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...-SHRA POSSIBLE IN/AROUND THE VICINITY OF
TJSJ/TIST/TISX THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCT/BKN LAYERS
AROUND FL100 ACROSS TISX AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 17/12Z. E TO NE WINDS 5-15 KT BELOW
FL050...WITH STRONG WRLY FLOW ABV FL100.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AOB 15 KT THE ENTIRE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD. SEAS 4-6 FT
IN MIXED SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF 3.82 INCHES WAS SET
YDAY AT THE SJU LMM INT`L ARPT. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 1.43
INCHES SET BACK IN 1910.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  82  75  82  75 /  10  10  10  10
STT  84  76  85  76 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/64








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 170245
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1045 PM AST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF MAINLY LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
BAND ALONG DISSIPATING FRONTAL/BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE CONTINUED TO SINK
FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING
NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL INDUCE A PREVAILING NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH DRIER AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY PLACED
THE REGION IN THE DIVERGENT SIDE/RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE OF THE JET MAX.
THIS ALONG WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TODAY. HOWEVER...SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
LAND CONTINUED TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
JET DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BAND SUNK
FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED
SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME. STILL EXPECT EARLY MORNING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS...BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS IN RECENT DAYS. RIVERS AND
STREAMS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO WHERE THE
HEAVY RAINFALL HAD OCCURRED WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS
OVERNIGHT. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO
DECREASE TO LESS THAN ONE INCH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...SCT-BKN MID-UPPER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLYING
AREA. VFR CONDS XPCT THRU WED WITH SOME ISOL/WDLY SCT SHRA NEAR USVI
AND LEEWARD TERMINALS. E TO NE WINDS 5-15 KT BELOW FL100...WITH STRONG
WRLY FLOW ABV FL150.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...WINDS AND SEAS PRESENTLY 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND
OVERALL LESS THAN 5 FEET LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THIS
EVENING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD HOWEVER EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO
SLIGHT CHOP IN PREVAILING EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM AST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SYNOPSIS...REMNANT OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATED NEXT 24
HOURS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED TODAY ALONG THE NORTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE EASTERN SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGED FROM TWO TO FOUR INCHES WITH TOTALS OF
MORE THAN 3.5 INCHES OBSERVED OVER THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN. REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE REGION...ENHANCED THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. THIS FEATURE
WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SEVERAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED WITH ONE FLOOD WARNING NEEDED
FOR FAJARDO MUNICIPALITY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA...PUSHING THE REMNANT OF
THIS BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH VERY DRY AIR EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE TO THE REGION THURSDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATED VERY DRY
AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL SOMEWHAT DURING THE WEEKEND AS FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

AVIATION...DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THEREFORE MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS STILL POSSIBLE AT TJPS AND TJMZ LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
VCSH AND -SHRA AT REMAINING TAF SITES. EAST...NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO
12 KTS WITH SOME ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WIND AS UP TO 18 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  71  81  71  82 /  40  40  20  20
STT  73  84  73  85 /  50  40  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

11/09






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 170245
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1045 PM AST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF MAINLY LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
BAND ALONG DISSIPATING FRONTAL/BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE CONTINUED TO SINK
FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING
NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL INDUCE A PREVAILING NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH DRIER AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY PLACED
THE REGION IN THE DIVERGENT SIDE/RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE OF THE JET MAX.
THIS ALONG WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TODAY. HOWEVER...SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
LAND CONTINUED TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
JET DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BAND SUNK
FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED
SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME. STILL EXPECT EARLY MORNING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS...BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS IN RECENT DAYS. RIVERS AND
STREAMS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO WHERE THE
HEAVY RAINFALL HAD OCCURRED WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS
OVERNIGHT. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO
DECREASE TO LESS THAN ONE INCH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...SCT-BKN MID-UPPER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLYING
AREA. VFR CONDS XPCT THRU WED WITH SOME ISOL/WDLY SCT SHRA NEAR USVI
AND LEEWARD TERMINALS. E TO NE WINDS 5-15 KT BELOW FL100...WITH STRONG
WRLY FLOW ABV FL150.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...WINDS AND SEAS PRESENTLY 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND
OVERALL LESS THAN 5 FEET LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THIS
EVENING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD HOWEVER EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO
SLIGHT CHOP IN PREVAILING EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM AST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SYNOPSIS...REMNANT OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATED NEXT 24
HOURS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED TODAY ALONG THE NORTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE EASTERN SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGED FROM TWO TO FOUR INCHES WITH TOTALS OF
MORE THAN 3.5 INCHES OBSERVED OVER THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN. REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE REGION...ENHANCED THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. THIS FEATURE
WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SEVERAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED WITH ONE FLOOD WARNING NEEDED
FOR FAJARDO MUNICIPALITY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA...PUSHING THE REMNANT OF
THIS BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH VERY DRY AIR EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE TO THE REGION THURSDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATED VERY DRY
AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL SOMEWHAT DURING THE WEEKEND AS FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

AVIATION...DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THEREFORE MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS STILL POSSIBLE AT TJPS AND TJMZ LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
VCSH AND -SHRA AT REMAINING TAF SITES. EAST...NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO
12 KTS WITH SOME ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WIND AS UP TO 18 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  71  81  71  82 /  40  40  20  20
STT  73  84  73  85 /  50  40  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

11/09





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