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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 130212
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1012 PM AST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...LATEST SOUNDING FROM SAN JUAN AT 13/00Z SHOWED SLIGHTLY
DRIER CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAP BELOW 10 KFT. THE TOP
OF THE MOIST LAYER ALSO DECREASED FROM AROUND 9 KFT TO 6.6 KFT.
NEVERTHELESS SMALL SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM
ABOUT 080 DEGREES. THIS PRESENTS A SLIGHTLY ONSHORE FLOW FOR
NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO AND WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OVER THE COAST THERE. IN SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN SHOWERS HAVE
ALSO BEEN FORMING AROUND THE ISLANDS AND DRIFTING ONSHORE DURING
THE PERIOD. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HOLDS WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
MODELS STILL SHOWING BETTER MOISTURE THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH A STRONG HIGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC
AND CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK GENERATING
INCREASING WINDS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. CURRENTLY GFS
SHOWS A MUCH MORE DRAMATIC INCREASE IN THE WIND SPEED AT 850 MB
THAN AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FCST PRD. SCT-BKN PASSING CLDS FL025...FL050...MOSTLY CLR ABV. ISOLD
SHRA EN ROUTE BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS. L/LVL WNDS FM E 5-10 KTS BLO
FL100...THEN VEERING AND BCMG FM W ABV FL250. SFC WND MAINLY LGT/VRB
BUT MAINLY FM E TIL 13/14Z...THEN INCR TO 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH LCL
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. NO OTHER SIG
OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AT OUTER BUOY 41043 REACHED 8.5 FEET AGAIN JUST
BEFORE 12/22Z AND WIND WAVE DIRECTION WAS REGISTERING AS NNW-N.
THIS WILL KEEP SEAS FROM QUIETING AS RAPIDLY AS ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED. HENCE HAVE EXTENDED THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT IN THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS SHOULD HOLD
UNTIL ABOUT THAT TIME. 7-FOOT SEAS RETURN ON MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM AST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SYNOPSIS...A DEEP POLAR LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ERODING THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE DURING THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE PERTURBATION AND A SURGE OF MOISTURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS MOST
OF THE ISLANDS...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST END OF MAINLAND PUERTO
RICO...WHERE SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED DURING THE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY DETECTED BY THE
DOPPLER RADAR WAS DOWNWIND FROM ST THOMAS/ST JOHN AND AFFECTING
THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA. DURING THE REST OF THE DAY EXPECT A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. IN ADDITION...THE WEST AND
INTERIOR PORTION OF THE ISLAND CAN EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
ISOLATED PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...A WETTER AND MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN IS FORECAST FROM
SATURDAY TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE COLLAPSES AND
SHORT WAVE ENERGY PROVIDES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS...MOISTURE WILL SURGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. AT THIS TIME...THE WETTEST DAY
APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY...AND MONDAY WHEN AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION
WILL CROSS THE ISLANDS.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME CLOUDINESS ARE
EXPECTED OVER WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
THROUGH AT LEAST 13/22Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST
AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

MARINE...A NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION PRODUCING SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FEET ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET OVER THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS. A
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  86  73  86 /  30  30  30  30
STT  74  84  73  84 /  50  50  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEAST-
     SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM AST SATURDAY FOR CULEBRA-NORTH
     CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM AST SATURDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

09/12




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 121918
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
318 PM AST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP POLAR LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ERODING THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE DURING THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE PERTURBATION AND A SURGE OF MOISTURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS MOST
OF THE ISLANDS...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST END OF MAINLAND PUERTO
RICO...WHERE SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED DURING THE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY DETECTED BY THE
DOPPLER RADAR WAS DOWNWIND FROM ST THOMAS/ST JOHN AND AFFECTING
THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA. DURING THE REST OF THE DAY EXPECT A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. IN ADDITION...THE WEST AND
INTERIOR PORTION OF THE ISLAND CAN EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
ISOLATED PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...A WETTER AND MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN IS FORECAST FROM
SATURDAY TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE COLLAPSES AND
SHORT WAVE ENERGY PROVIDES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS...MOISTURE WILL SURGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. AT THIS TIME...THE WETTEST DAY
APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY...AND MONDAY WHEN AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION
WILL CROSS THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME CLOUDINESS ARE
EXPECTED OVER WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
THROUGH AT LEAST 13/22Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST
AT 10 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...A NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION PRODUCING SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FEET ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET OVER THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS. A
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  86  73  86 /  30  30  30  30
STT  74  84  73  84 /  50  50  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CULEBRA-NORTH
     CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-
     WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM AST SATURDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

71/27




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 121438
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1038 AM AST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE
WINDS WERE AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS
AFFECTED THE LOCAL REGION...BUT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WERE NOT
SIGNIFICANT. FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION.
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST PACKAGE ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  73  85  73 /  30  30  30  30
STT  84  74  84  73 /  30  50  50  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CULEBRA-NORTH
     CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-
     WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM AST SATURDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

71/27




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 121438
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1038 AM AST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE
WINDS WERE AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS
AFFECTED THE LOCAL REGION...BUT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WERE NOT
SIGNIFICANT. FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION.
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST PACKAGE ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  73  85  73 /  30  30  30  30
STT  84  74  84  73 /  30  50  50  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CULEBRA-NORTH
     CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-
     WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM AST SATURDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

71/27




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 121438
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1038 AM AST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE
WINDS WERE AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS
AFFECTED THE LOCAL REGION...BUT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WERE NOT
SIGNIFICANT. FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION.
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST PACKAGE ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  73  85  73 /  30  30  30  30
STT  84  74  84  73 /  30  50  50  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CULEBRA-NORTH
     CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-
     WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM AST SATURDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

71/27




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 121438
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1038 AM AST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE
WINDS WERE AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS
AFFECTED THE LOCAL REGION...BUT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WERE NOT
SIGNIFICANT. FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION.
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST PACKAGE ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  73  85  73 /  30  30  30  30
STT  84  74  84  73 /  30  50  50  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CULEBRA-NORTH
     CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-
     WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM AST SATURDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

71/27




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 121438
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1038 AM AST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE
WINDS WERE AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS
AFFECTED THE LOCAL REGION...BUT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WERE NOT
SIGNIFICANT. FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION.
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST PACKAGE ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  73  85  73 /  30  30  30  30
STT  84  74  84  73 /  30  50  50  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CULEBRA-NORTH
     CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-
     WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM AST SATURDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

71/27




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 120957
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
557 AM AST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE ANEGADA PASSAGE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A DEEP POLAR LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ERODING THE RIDGE DURING THE WEEKEND. FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EASTERLY TRADE WINDS HAVE PUSHED PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLANDS SINCE MIDNIGHT. THESE PASSING
SHOWERS FAVORED THE WINDWARD AREAS...WHERE UP TO ONE QUARTER OF
AN INCH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN ISOLATED SPOTS OF NORTHEAST PR SO
FAR THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ADDITIONAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...THESE
MORNING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE USVI AND
THE EASTERN THIRD OF PR THROUGH MID-MORNING. STILL EXPECTING
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON AS
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A CAP INVERSION HOLDING
THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY CAN NOT
RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

A WETTER AND MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN IS FORECAST FROM SATURDAY TO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE COLLAPSES AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY
PROVIDES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS
THE RIDGE FLATTENS...MOISTURE WILL SURGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. AT THIS TIME...THE WETTEST DAY APPEARS TO BE
ON MONDAY WHEN AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION WILL CROSS THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS AT ALL TERMINALS DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...SHRA EMBEDDED ON TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FM THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO EASTERN PR THRU AT LEAST 12Z. SCT CLD
LYRS FL030...FL070 AND MTN TOP OBSCD AT EASTERN PR LIKELY WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. BETWEEN 17Z-22Z SHRA DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN INTERIOR OF
PR...IMPACTING MAINLY JMZ/JBQ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FM THE
EAST AT 10-20 KTS. SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER
14Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 10-15 KT AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT IN THE OUTER ATLANTIC
WATERS. BREAKING WAVES UP TO 7 FEET ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PR
AND CULEBRA WILL KEEP THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT FOR THE NORTH
FACING BEACHES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A STRONG HIGH DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  73  85  73 /  30  30  30  30
STT  84  74  84  73 /  30  50  50  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CULEBRA-NORTH
     CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-
     WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM AST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ST.
     THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM AST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM AST SATURDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

13/11




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 120237 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1037 PM AST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...LITTLE OR NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS EXCEPT ON THE MARINE
SIDE. SOUNDING FROM 12/00Z CAME IN SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN YESTERDAY
AND RADAR SHOWS LITTLE ACTIVITY OVER LAND...BUT SMALL SHOWERS HAVE
GROWN IN NUMBER OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS A
FILAMENT OF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER
THE AREA AS IT IS MOVING EASTERLY LENGTHWISE WITH THE FLOW FOR
THE MOMENT. HENCE THE SMALL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AND A FEW WILL
LIKELY MOVE ONTO THE WINDWARD SHORES OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ARE MOVING AROUND PUERTO RICO IN A TYPICAL
WAKE FORMATION WITH A FEW STREAMERS COMING OFF OF SAINT CROIX. BUT
MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE AROUND PUERTO RICO AND NOT THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AT THIS TIME. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED AND MOSTLY SUNNY
WEATHER WILL GRACE US ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TERMINALS DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...FEW LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND MOV W OVR THE
COASTAL WATERS BTW ERN PR AND THE NRN LEEWARDS. SCT CLD LYRS
FL030...FL050...CLR ABV. LOW LEVEL WINDS FM THE EAST 10-15 KTS BLO
FL100...THEN VEERING AND BCMG FM S-SW WHILE INCR W/HT. SFC WND
LGT/VRB OVR LAND TIL 12/14Z...FOLLOWED BY LOCAL SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS WITH HIGHER GUST OF 20-22 KTS PSBL. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX
IMPACT ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...MODEL IS RUNNING ABOUT ONE FOOT TOO LOW AND THIS KEEPS
THE ATLANTIC OUTER WATERS UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS UNTIL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RIP CURRENT RISK IS ALSO EXTENDED THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. MODELS
ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS BEGINNING
MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AS A VERY STRONG HIGH
DEVELOPS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM AST THU FEB 11 2016/

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A POLAR TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
ERODING THE UPPER RIDGE. A SERIES OF EASTERLY PERTURBATION WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON DEPICTED LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DETECTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS. A GENERAL
DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A DEEP POLAR TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS TROUGH WILL ERODE RAPIDLY THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS
THIS HAPPENS...A SERIES OF LOW LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO
INDUCE A TRANSITION TO A MORE WETTER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. LATER DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION...MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY
WET WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

MARINE...SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHERN BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO UNTIL AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL ALSO CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS UNTIL THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  85  74  87 /  10  20  30  30
STT  74  84  74  84 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR CULEBRA-
     NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
     SOUTHEAST-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM AST FRIDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST.
     JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM AST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM AST SATURDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

09/12




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 120237 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1037 PM AST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...LITTLE OR NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS EXCEPT ON THE MARINE
SIDE. SOUNDING FROM 12/00Z CAME IN SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN YESTERDAY
AND RADAR SHOWS LITTLE ACTIVITY OVER LAND...BUT SMALL SHOWERS HAVE
GROWN IN NUMBER OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS A
FILAMENT OF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER
THE AREA AS IT IS MOVING EASTERLY LENGTHWISE WITH THE FLOW FOR
THE MOMENT. HENCE THE SMALL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AND A FEW WILL
LIKELY MOVE ONTO THE WINDWARD SHORES OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ARE MOVING AROUND PUERTO RICO IN A TYPICAL
WAKE FORMATION WITH A FEW STREAMERS COMING OFF OF SAINT CROIX. BUT
MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE AROUND PUERTO RICO AND NOT THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AT THIS TIME. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED AND MOSTLY SUNNY
WEATHER WILL GRACE US ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TERMINALS DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...FEW LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND MOV W OVR THE
COASTAL WATERS BTW ERN PR AND THE NRN LEEWARDS. SCT CLD LYRS
FL030...FL050...CLR ABV. LOW LEVEL WINDS FM THE EAST 10-15 KTS BLO
FL100...THEN VEERING AND BCMG FM S-SW WHILE INCR W/HT. SFC WND
LGT/VRB OVR LAND TIL 12/14Z...FOLLOWED BY LOCAL SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS WITH HIGHER GUST OF 20-22 KTS PSBL. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX
IMPACT ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...MODEL IS RUNNING ABOUT ONE FOOT TOO LOW AND THIS KEEPS
THE ATLANTIC OUTER WATERS UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS UNTIL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RIP CURRENT RISK IS ALSO EXTENDED THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. MODELS
ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS BEGINNING
MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AS A VERY STRONG HIGH
DEVELOPS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM AST THU FEB 11 2016/

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A POLAR TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
ERODING THE UPPER RIDGE. A SERIES OF EASTERLY PERTURBATION WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON DEPICTED LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DETECTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS. A GENERAL
DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A DEEP POLAR TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS TROUGH WILL ERODE RAPIDLY THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS
THIS HAPPENS...A SERIES OF LOW LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO
INDUCE A TRANSITION TO A MORE WETTER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. LATER DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION...MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY
WET WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

MARINE...SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHERN BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO UNTIL AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL ALSO CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS UNTIL THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  85  74  87 /  10  20  30  30
STT  74  84  74  84 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR CULEBRA-
     NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
     SOUTHEAST-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM AST FRIDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST.
     JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM AST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM AST SATURDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

09/12



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 120237 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1037 PM AST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...LITTLE OR NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS EXCEPT ON THE MARINE
SIDE. SOUNDING FROM 12/00Z CAME IN SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN YESTERDAY
AND RADAR SHOWS LITTLE ACTIVITY OVER LAND...BUT SMALL SHOWERS HAVE
GROWN IN NUMBER OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS A
FILAMENT OF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER
THE AREA AS IT IS MOVING EASTERLY LENGTHWISE WITH THE FLOW FOR
THE MOMENT. HENCE THE SMALL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AND A FEW WILL
LIKELY MOVE ONTO THE WINDWARD SHORES OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ARE MOVING AROUND PUERTO RICO IN A TYPICAL
WAKE FORMATION WITH A FEW STREAMERS COMING OFF OF SAINT CROIX. BUT
MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE AROUND PUERTO RICO AND NOT THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AT THIS TIME. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED AND MOSTLY SUNNY
WEATHER WILL GRACE US ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TERMINALS DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...FEW LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND MOV W OVR THE
COASTAL WATERS BTW ERN PR AND THE NRN LEEWARDS. SCT CLD LYRS
FL030...FL050...CLR ABV. LOW LEVEL WINDS FM THE EAST 10-15 KTS BLO
FL100...THEN VEERING AND BCMG FM S-SW WHILE INCR W/HT. SFC WND
LGT/VRB OVR LAND TIL 12/14Z...FOLLOWED BY LOCAL SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS WITH HIGHER GUST OF 20-22 KTS PSBL. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX
IMPACT ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...MODEL IS RUNNING ABOUT ONE FOOT TOO LOW AND THIS KEEPS
THE ATLANTIC OUTER WATERS UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS UNTIL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RIP CURRENT RISK IS ALSO EXTENDED THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. MODELS
ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS BEGINNING
MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AS A VERY STRONG HIGH
DEVELOPS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM AST THU FEB 11 2016/

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A POLAR TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
ERODING THE UPPER RIDGE. A SERIES OF EASTERLY PERTURBATION WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON DEPICTED LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DETECTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS. A GENERAL
DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A DEEP POLAR TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS TROUGH WILL ERODE RAPIDLY THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS
THIS HAPPENS...A SERIES OF LOW LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO
INDUCE A TRANSITION TO A MORE WETTER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. LATER DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION...MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY
WET WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

MARINE...SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHERN BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO UNTIL AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL ALSO CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS UNTIL THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  85  74  87 /  10  20  30  30
STT  74  84  74  84 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR CULEBRA-
     NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
     SOUTHEAST-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM AST FRIDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST.
     JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM AST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM AST SATURDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

09/12




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 111823
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
223 PM AST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A POLAR TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
ERODING THE UPPER RIDGE. A SERIES OF EASTERLY PERTURBATION WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON DEPICTED LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DETECTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS. A GENERAL
DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A DEEP POLAR TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS TROUGH WILL ERODE RAPIDLY THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS
THIS HAPPENS...A SERIES OF LOW LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO
INDUCE A TRANSITION TO A MORE WETTER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. LATER DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION...MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY
WET WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHERN BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO UNTIL AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL ALSO CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS UNTIL THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  85  74  87 /  20  20  30  30
STT  74  84  74  84 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CULEBRA-
     NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
     SOUTHEAST-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ST.
     THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT
     10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

71/72




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 111437
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1037 AM AST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...SOME LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN
COASTAL WATERS. MEANWHILE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED OVER LAND
AREAS. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO FORECAST GRIDS THIS MORNING AS
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
TJBQ/TJMZ AFT 11/17Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS FM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOY ARE SHOWING SEAS BETWEEN 5-7 FEET STILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. BUOY 41043 AROUND 170 MILES
NORTHEAST OF SAINT THOMAS CONTINUES TO SHOW SWELLS OF 7 FEET.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY. A DEEP POLAR LOW/TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC ERODING THE RIDGE DURING THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME...EASTERLY PERTURBATIONS ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY...RESULTING
IN GENERALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS
AT MID-UPPER LEVELS COVERING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO.
STRONG CAP INVERSION AND A SUBSIDENCE AIR MASS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL
AREA WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY. THE DRIEST DAY OF THE
NEXT 7 DAYS APPEARS TO BE TODAY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DROP BELOW ONE INCH AROUND 18Z...
THIS IS A 20%-25% PERCENT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

A WETTER AND MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE COLLAPSES AND A SERIES OF SURFACE
TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL INCREASE
THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGE WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY WHEN AN
EASTERLY PERTURBATION/SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE ISLANDS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
JBQ/JMZ AFT 11/17Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS FM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 14Z.

MARINE...OFFSHORE BUOY 41043 REGISTERED ANOTHER PULSE OF LONG
PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL OF 7-8 FT DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF
THIS SWELL ENERGY WILL FILTER ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
CARIBBEAN PASSAGE LATER TODAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL AS A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NORTH FACING BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA
AND NORTHERN USVI THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE REST OF THE
WEEK...SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 4-6 FEET ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  74  85  74 /  10  20  20  30
STT  85  74  84  74 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CULEBRA-
     NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
     SOUTHEAST-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ST.
     THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT
     10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

71/72




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 110941
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY. A DEEP POLAR LOW/TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC ERODING THE RIDGE DURING THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME...EASTERLY PERTURBATIONS ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY...RESULTING
IN GENERALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS
AT MID-UPPER LEVELS COVERING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO.
STRONG CAP INVERSION AND A SUBSIDENCE AIR MASS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL
AREA WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY. THE DRIEST DAY OF THE
NEXT 7 DAYS APPEARS TO BE TODAY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DROP BELOW ONE INCH AROUND 18Z...
THIS IS A 20%-25% PERCENT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

A WETTER AND MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE COLLAPSES AND A SERIES OF SURFACE
TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL INCREASE
THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGE WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY WHEN AN
EASTERLY PERTURBATION/SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
JBQ/JMZ AFT 11/17Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS FM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE BUOY 41043 REGISTERED ANOTHER PULSE OF LONG
PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL OF 7-8 FT DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF
THIS SWELL ENERGY WILL FILTER ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
CARIBBEAN PASSAGE LATER TODAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL AS A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NORTH FACING BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA
AND NORTHERN USVI THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE REST OF THE
WEEK...SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 4-6 FEET ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  74  85  74 /  10  20  20  30
STT  85  74  84  74 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR CULEBRA-NORTH
     CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-
     WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ST. THOMAS/ST.
     JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

13/11




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 110250
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1050 PM AST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
DIMINISHED OR MOVED OFFSHORE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS
RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE MONA PASSAGE AND BETWEEN EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SOME BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
MAY REACH PORTIONS OF THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS BY
EARLY MORNING...BUT OVERALL DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LOCALLY AND DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...AND SOME MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY IN
ISOLATED AREAS. RIDGE ALOFT IS TO SLOWLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS A POLAR TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE AND BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
JBQ/JMZ AFT 11/17Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15KT AFTER 11/13Z.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...RECENT DATA FROM THE SURROUNDING BUOYS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC SUGGEST NORTHERLY SWELLS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SEAS
HOWEVER CONTINUE UP TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC AND LOCAL PASSAGES.

FOR THE LOCAL BEACH GOERS...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST FACING BEACHES OF PR...CULEBRA
AND THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A DEEP POLAR LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC ERODING THE RIDGE DURING THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
ISLANDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.

DISCUSSION...SOME PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AFFECTING MAINLY THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH LOCAL EFFECTS WILL
BE SUFFICIENT TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO THE PRESENT WEATHER REGIME IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE LABOR WEEK. A TRANSITION TO A MORE
WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THEREAFTER
AS A POLAR TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC AND A SERIES
OF EASTERLY PERTURBATIONS CROSSES THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA TONIGHT AND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...-
SHRA/SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN PR BETWEEN UNTIL
10/22Z IMPACTING MAINLY THE FLYING AREA OF TJBQ/TJMZ WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIGS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE ESE TO EAST SOUTHEAST
AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DIMINISHING AFTER 10/22Z.

MARINE...LOCAL BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SWELLS CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS UP TO 7 FEET AND WINDS UP
TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  88  74  87 /   0  10  20  20
STT  73  84  74  85 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CULEBRA-
     NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
     SOUTHEAST-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ST.
     THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT
     10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST THURSDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

23/09



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 110250
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1050 PM AST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
DIMINISHED OR MOVED OFFSHORE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS
RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE MONA PASSAGE AND BETWEEN EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SOME BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
MAY REACH PORTIONS OF THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS BY
EARLY MORNING...BUT OVERALL DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LOCALLY AND DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...AND SOME MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY IN
ISOLATED AREAS. RIDGE ALOFT IS TO SLOWLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS A POLAR TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE AND BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
JBQ/JMZ AFT 11/17Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15KT AFTER 11/13Z.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...RECENT DATA FROM THE SURROUNDING BUOYS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC SUGGEST NORTHERLY SWELLS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SEAS
HOWEVER CONTINUE UP TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC AND LOCAL PASSAGES.

FOR THE LOCAL BEACH GOERS...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST FACING BEACHES OF PR...CULEBRA
AND THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A DEEP POLAR LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC ERODING THE RIDGE DURING THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
ISLANDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.

DISCUSSION...SOME PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AFFECTING MAINLY THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH LOCAL EFFECTS WILL
BE SUFFICIENT TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO THE PRESENT WEATHER REGIME IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE LABOR WEEK. A TRANSITION TO A MORE
WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THEREAFTER
AS A POLAR TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC AND A SERIES
OF EASTERLY PERTURBATIONS CROSSES THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA TONIGHT AND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...-
SHRA/SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN PR BETWEEN UNTIL
10/22Z IMPACTING MAINLY THE FLYING AREA OF TJBQ/TJMZ WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIGS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE ESE TO EAST SOUTHEAST
AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DIMINISHING AFTER 10/22Z.

MARINE...LOCAL BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SWELLS CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS UP TO 7 FEET AND WINDS UP
TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  88  74  87 /   0  10  20  20
STT  73  84  74  85 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CULEBRA-
     NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
     SOUTHEAST-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ST.
     THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT
     10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST THURSDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

23/09




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 110250
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1050 PM AST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
DIMINISHED OR MOVED OFFSHORE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS
RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE MONA PASSAGE AND BETWEEN EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SOME BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
MAY REACH PORTIONS OF THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS BY
EARLY MORNING...BUT OVERALL DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LOCALLY AND DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...AND SOME MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY IN
ISOLATED AREAS. RIDGE ALOFT IS TO SLOWLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS A POLAR TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE AND BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
JBQ/JMZ AFT 11/17Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15KT AFTER 11/13Z.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...RECENT DATA FROM THE SURROUNDING BUOYS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC SUGGEST NORTHERLY SWELLS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SEAS
HOWEVER CONTINUE UP TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC AND LOCAL PASSAGES.

FOR THE LOCAL BEACH GOERS...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST FACING BEACHES OF PR...CULEBRA
AND THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A DEEP POLAR LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC ERODING THE RIDGE DURING THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
ISLANDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.

DISCUSSION...SOME PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AFFECTING MAINLY THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH LOCAL EFFECTS WILL
BE SUFFICIENT TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO THE PRESENT WEATHER REGIME IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE LABOR WEEK. A TRANSITION TO A MORE
WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THEREAFTER
AS A POLAR TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC AND A SERIES
OF EASTERLY PERTURBATIONS CROSSES THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA TONIGHT AND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...-
SHRA/SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN PR BETWEEN UNTIL
10/22Z IMPACTING MAINLY THE FLYING AREA OF TJBQ/TJMZ WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIGS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE ESE TO EAST SOUTHEAST
AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DIMINISHING AFTER 10/22Z.

MARINE...LOCAL BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SWELLS CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS UP TO 7 FEET AND WINDS UP
TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  88  74  87 /   0  10  20  20
STT  73  84  74  85 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CULEBRA-
     NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
     SOUTHEAST-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ST.
     THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT
     10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST THURSDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

23/09




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