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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 270134
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
934 PM AST SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms affected the central
interior, western and interior sections of Puerto Rico. Some
sections received accumulations between one and three inches of
rain. Brief trade wind showers will move across the local waters
and across the windward over eastern Puerto Rico overnight and
early Monday morning. Once again, another round of locally
induced convection is expected across the interior and western
sections on Monday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected over most terminals through
27/17Z. SHRA and ISOLD TSRA expected to develop over west and
interior Puerto Rico between 27/17Z and 27/22Z so at least VCTS is
expected for TJBQ, TJMZ, and TJPS. However, these is also a chance
of SHRA and ISOLD TSRA in the vicinity of TJSJ, but not as
persistent. Sfc winds should prevail from the E at 10-15KT with
occasional gusts and sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...
Tranquil marine conditions are expected through most of the work
week, with seas of 5 feet or less, and winds at 10 to 15 knots
increasing at 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 202 PM AST SUN JUN 26 2016/

SYNOPSIS...Broad surface high pressure will continue across the
north central Atlantic for the next several days. Weak mid level
ridge across will continue to move west across the forecast area.
TUTT will move to the northeast of the area as an upper level
short wave takes it place just north of the area. Moderate trade
winds will continue through the forecast period. The next
tropical wave passage is expected on Friday.

DISCUSSION...Showers and isolated thunderstorms developed late in
the morning hours across the northern U.S. Virgin Islands...then
by early in the afternoon hours across San Juan and vicinity and the
interior and southern sections of Puerto Rico. The doppler radar
estimated between 1-2 inches of rain across areas in Juana Diaz
and Ponce. Urban and small stream flooding is expected with the
heaviest showers through at least this afternoon.

TUTT will continue to shift to our northeast while weakening and
leaving the area on its convergent side during the next 12-24 hours.
Another TUTT will develop across the western Atlantic and extend a
short wave trof into the northern Caribbean islands with favorable
upper level dynamics expected across the area once again from
Tuesday thru Wednesday evening. Therefore, afternoon showers and
thunderstorms are expected across the interior and western Puerto
Rico on Monday. Increasing on intensity and coverage from Tuesday
and Wednesday as moisture increases and divergent pattern settles
aloft. Fair weather pattern is expected to prevail under limited
low level moisture by the end of the week. As wind direction and
local effects will favor afternoon convection across the interior
and western sections of PR. The next tropical wave passage is
expected by Friday.

AVIATION...SHRA and ISOLD TSRA expected to continue across west
and interior PR thru 22Z...so at least VCTS is expected for TJBQ,
TJMZ, and TJPS. However, there is also a chance of SHRA and ISOLD
TSRA in the vicinity of TJSJ, but not as persistent. Sfc winds
should prevail from the E at 10-15KT with occasional gusts and sea
breeze variations.

MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions are expected during the next
few days, with seas 5 feet or less, and winds at 10 to 15 knots.
However...higher gusts due to thunderstorms and showers can be
expected each afternoon over the coastal waters of western PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  78  91 /  20  20  20  30
STT  80  91  79  91 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.SJU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

71/27




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 261802
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
202 PM AST SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Broad surface high pressure will continue across the
north central Atlantic for the next several days. Weak mid level
ridge across will continue to move west across the forecast area.
TUTT will move to the northeast of the area as an upper level
short wave takes it place just north of the area. Moderate trade
winds will continue through the forecast period. The next
tropical wave passage is expected on Friday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Showers and isolated thunderstorms developed late in
the morning hours across the northern U.S. Virgin Islands...then
by early in the afternoon hours across San Juan and vicinity and the
interior and southern sections of Puerto Rico. The doppler radar
estimated between 1-2 inches of rain across areas in Juana Diaz
and Ponce. Urban and small stream flooding is expected with the
heaviest showers through at least this afternoon.

TUTT will continue to shift to our northeast while weakening and
leaving the area on its convergent side during the next 12-24 hours.
Another TUTT will develop across the western Atlantic and extend a
short wave trof into the northern Caribbean islands with favorable
upper level dynamics expected across the area once again from
Tuesday thru Wednesday evening. Therefore, afternoon showers and
thunderstorms are expected across the interior and western Puerto
Rico on Monday. Increasing on intensity and coverage from Tuesday
and Wednesday as moisture increases and divergent pattern settles
aloft. Fair weather pattern is expected to prevail under limited
low level moisture by the end of the week. As wind direction and
local effects will favor afternoon convection across the interior
and western sections of PR. The next tropical wave passage is
expected by Friday.


&&

.AVIATION...SHRA and ISOLD TSRA expected to continue across west
and interior PR thru 22Z...so at least VCTS is expected for TJBQ,
TJMZ, and TJPS. However, there is also a chance of SHRA and ISOLD
TSRA in the vicinity of TJSJ, but not as persistent. Sfc winds
should prevail from the E at 10-15KT with occasional gusts and sea
breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions are expected during the next
few days, with seas 5 feet or less, and winds at 10 to 15 knots.
However...higher gusts due to thunderstorms and showers can be
expected each afternoon over the coastal waters of western PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  78  91 /  20  20  20  30
STT  80  91  79  91 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.SJU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

10/13




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 261607
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1207 PM AST SUN JUN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...Isolated to locally scattered showers and
thunderstorms affected the island of St Thomas and the eastern
half of Puerto Rico. showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop over the interior and northern portions of Puerto Rico
later this afternoon. Most of these showers and thunderstorms will
quickly dissipate at around sunset.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA and ISOLD TSRA expected to develop over west and
interior Puerto Rico between 26/17Z and 26/22Z so at least VCTS is
expected for TJBQ, TJMZ, and TJPS. However, these is also a chance
of SHRA and ISOLD TSRA in the vicinity of TJSJ, but not as
persistent. Sfc winds should prevail from the E at 10-15KT with
occasional gusts and sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions are expected during the next
few days, with seas 5 feet or less, and winds at 10 to 15 knots.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 534 AM AST SUN JUN 26 2016/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT across the central Atlantic and into the eastern
Caribbean will shift east through the day, while weakening. Another
TUTT will then develop across the western Atlantic and into the
northern Caribbean isles by Tuesday. Weak mid level ridge will
hold much of the next workweek. A surface high across the north
central Atlantic will continue to prevail during the next several
days. The next tropical wave passage is expected on Friday.

DISCUSSION...Partly cloudy skies were observed during the overnight
and early morning hours with a few isolated showers detected
across the north and east coastal areas of Puerto Rico as well as
the USVI. Coastal temperatures were in the low 80s and the wind
was easterly at 10 mph or less.

As TUTT shifts to our east while weakening, its convergent side
will begin to dominate the area. However, this pattern is short-
lived as another TUTT develops across the western Atlantic and
into the northern Caribbean islands with favorable upper level
dynamics expected across the area Tuesday and early Wednesday.
Precipitable water will continue near normal values through Monday
with a sharp increase Tuesday/early Wednesday. Therefore, under
this evolving pattern continue to expect afternoon showers and
thunderstorms across west Puerto Rico today and Monday. Intensity
and coverage of showers and thunderstorms, including across the
USVI, should increase Tuesday and early Wednesday as moisture
increases and trofiness dominates the forecast area. Late
Wednesday through early Friday, a fair weather pattern is expected
to prevail under limited low level moisture. The chance for
showers and thunderstorms will increase once again Friday
afternoon with the passage of the next tropical wave.

AVIATION...VFR conditions expected over most terminals through
26/17Z. SHRA and ISOLD TSRA expected to develop over west and
interior Puerto Rico between 26/17Z and 26/22Z so at least VCTS is
expected for TJBQ, TJMZ, and TJPS. However, these is also a chance
of SHRA and ISOLD TSRA in the vicinity of TJSJ, but not as
persistent. Sfc winds should prevail from the E at 10-15KT with
occasional gusts and sea breeze variations.

MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions are expected during the next
few days, with seas 5 feet or less, and winds at 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  79  90  78 /  20  20  20  20
STT  91  80  91  79 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

10/13




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 260934
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
534 AM AST SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT across the central Atlantic and into the eastern
Caribbean will shift east through the day, while weakening. Another
TUTT will then develop across the western Atlantic and into the
northern Caribbean isles by Tuesday. Weak mid level ridge will
hold much of the next workweek. A surface high across the north
central Atlantic will continue to prevail during the next several
days. The next tropical wave passage is expected on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Partly cloudy skies were observed during the overnight
and early morning hours with a few isolated showers detected
across the north and east coastal areas of Puerto Rico as well as
the USVI. Coastal temperatures were in the low 80s and the wind
was easterly at 10 mph or less.

As TUTT shifts to our east while weakening, its convergent side
will begin to dominate the area. However, this pattern is short-
lived as another TUTT develops across the western Atlantic and
into the northern Caribbean islands with favorable upper level
dynamics expected across the area Tuesday and early Wednesday.
Precipitable water will continue near normal values through Monday
with a sharp increase Tuesday/early Wednesday. Therefore, under
this evolving pattern continue to expect afternoon showers and
thunderstorms across west Puerto Rico today and Monday. Intensity
and coverage of showers and thunderstorms, including across the
USVI, should increase Tuesday and early Wednesday as moisture
increases and trofiness dominates the forecast area. Late
Wednesday through early Friday, a fair weather pattern is expected
to prevail under limited low level moisture. The chance for
showers and thunderstorms will increase once again Friday
afternoon with the passage of the next tropical wave.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected over most terminals through
26/17Z. SHRA and ISOLD TSRA expected to develop over west and
interior Puerto Rico between 26/17Z and 26/22Z so at least VCTS is
expected for TJBQ, TJMZ, and TJPS. However, these is also a chance
of SHRA and ISOLD TSRA in the vicinity of TJSJ, but not as
persistent. Sfc winds should prevail from the E at 10-15KT with
occasional gusts and sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions are expected during the next
few days, with seas 5 feet or less, and winds at 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  79  90  78 /  20  20  20  20
STT  91  80  91  79 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

25/23




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 260138
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
938 PM AST SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...Showers and thunderstorms developed during the
afternoon. Frequent lightning and pea size hail were reported
over the southern municipalities of Puerto Rico this afternoon,
this activity ended around 4 pm AST. For the rest of tonight,
trade wind showers will continue across the windward sections of
PR and the USVI from time to time, elsewhere mostly clear to
partly cloudy skies. In addition, suspended Saharan dust particles
will continue through at least Sunday. Another round of locally
induced convection is expected across the interior and western
sections on Sunday afternoon.

&&

AVIATION...
Mostly VFR conditions expected over most terminals through 26/17Z.
SHRA and ISOLD TSRA expected to develop over south west-interior
Puerto Rico between 26/17Z and 26/22Z so VCTS is expected for
TJMZ. Sfc winds should prevail from the E-SE at 10-15 KT with
occasional gusts with local sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...
Tranquil marine conditions are expected through the rest of the
weekend, with seas of 5 feet or less, and winds at 10 to 15 knots
increasing at 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  89  78  88 /  20  20  20  20
STT  80  90  78  88 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

71/27




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 251752
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
152 PM AST SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Broad surface high pressure will continue across the
north central Atlantic for the next several days promoting
moderate trades. SAL and mid to upper level ridge across the
eastern Caribbean will continue to move west across the forecast
area. TUTT expected to move to the northeast of the area as an
upper level short wave takes it place just north of the area and
upper ridge builds over the eastern Caribbean basin. Tropical wave
across the offshore Caribbean sea will exit the area later
tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Showers and isolated thunderstorms developed early
in the afternoon across the western interior and southwest
sections of Puerto Rico. The doppler radar estimated around 1 inch
of rain with this activity across areas in Cabo Rojo and Maricao.
Urban and small stream flooding is expected with the heaviest
showers across the SW quadrant of the island. Streamers formed off
the islands and across eastern PR...with showers noted over and
west of Guaynabo. Similar conditions are expected on Sunday as
mid level ridge and upper tutt continues over the forecast area.

Suspended Saharan dust trailing the tropical wave will continue
through at least Sunday. Therefore, light trade wind showers will
continue across the local waters with a few reaching parts of the
islands during the night and early morning hours. Wind direction
and local effects will favor afternoon convection across the
western sections of PR.


&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected over most terminals
through 26/17Z. SHRA and ISOLD TSRA expected to develop over south
west-interior Puerto Rico between 25/17Z and 25/22Z so VCTS is
expected for TJMZ. Sfc winds should prevail from the E-ne at
10-15KT with occasional gusts with local sea breeze variations.


&&

.MARINE...Dominant short period wind waves will continue across
the waters through the forecast period. Seas will generally be
between 2-5 feet and up to 6 across the Mona Passage.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  89  78  88 /  20  20  20  20
STT  80  90  78  88 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

08/13




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 251752
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
152 PM AST SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Broad surface high pressure will continue across the
north central Atlantic for the next several days promoting
moderate trades. SAL and mid to upper level ridge across the
eastern Caribbean will continue to move west across the forecast
area. TUTT expected to move to the northeast of the area as an
upper level short wave takes it place just north of the area and
upper ridge builds over the eastern Caribbean basin. Tropical wave
across the offshore Caribbean sea will exit the area later
tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Showers and isolated thunderstorms developed early
in the afternoon across the western interior and southwest
sections of Puerto Rico. The doppler radar estimated around 1 inch
of rain with this activity across areas in Cabo Rojo and Maricao.
Urban and small stream flooding is expected with the heaviest
showers across the SW quadrant of the island. Streamers formed off
the islands and across eastern PR...with showers noted over and
west of Guaynabo. Similar conditions are expected on Sunday as
mid level ridge and upper tutt continues over the forecast area.

Suspended Saharan dust trailing the tropical wave will continue
through at least Sunday. Therefore, light trade wind showers will
continue across the local waters with a few reaching parts of the
islands during the night and early morning hours. Wind direction
and local effects will favor afternoon convection across the
western sections of PR.


&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected over most terminals
through 26/17Z. SHRA and ISOLD TSRA expected to develop over south
west-interior Puerto Rico between 25/17Z and 25/22Z so VCTS is
expected for TJMZ. Sfc winds should prevail from the E-ne at
10-15KT with occasional gusts with local sea breeze variations.


&&

.MARINE...Dominant short period wind waves will continue across
the waters through the forecast period. Seas will generally be
between 2-5 feet and up to 6 across the Mona Passage.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  89  78  88 /  20  20  20  20
STT  80  90  78  88 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

08/13




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250925
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
525 AM AST SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT will hold across the central Atlantic and
into the local area through early next week. At lower levels,
a high pressure across the north central Atlantic will continue
to promote an easterly wind flow during the next few days. Hazy
skies are expected as SAL continues to spread across the eastern
Caribbean.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Partly cloudy skies were observed during the overnight
and early morning hours across the forecast area with a few isolated
showers detected across the coastal waters. Temperatures across
coastal areas were in the low 80s and the wind was easterly at 10
mph or less.

Although TUTT will hold across the central Atlantic and into the
eastern Caribbean through early next week, precipitable water will
remain near normal values with a trade wind cap holding across the
area. In addition, SAL will continue to spread across the eastern
Caribbean during the weekend. This pattern will result in mostly
seasonable weather conditions during the weekend and early next
week with locally induced showers and thunderstorms across west
Puerto Rico in the afternoon hours each day.

By mid week next week, fair weather still expected as weak ridge
aloft prevails across the forecast area. Best moisture advection
is expected on Friday as a tropical wave with plenty of moisture
moves across the eastern Caribbean and another TUTT develops north
of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected over most terminals through
25/17Z. SHRA and ISOLD TSRA expected to develop over west-interior
Puerto Rico between 24/17Z and 24/22Z so VCTS is expected for TJBQ
and TJMZ. However, these is also a chance of SHRA and ISOLD TSRA
in the vicinity of TJSJ, but not as persistent as those over W-PR.
Sfc winds should prevail from the E at 10-15KT with occasional
gusts with local sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...Seas between 3 and 5 feet across most of local waters
except across the Caribbean offshore waters where mariners will
find seas up to 6 feet. Winds 15 to 20 knots are expected today.
Small craft should exercise caution across the offshore Caribbean
waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  89  78 /  30  20  20  20
STT  90  80  90  78 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SJU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

25/23




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