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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010235
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1035 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
AS TROPICAL WAVES MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THE
BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH LOCAL
TERRAIN TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY THE INTERIOR...NORTH
AND WEST SECTIONS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA. MINOR CHANGES
WERE INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA ON TUE
MORNING AS TROPICAL WAVE REACHES THE LOCAL REGION. MVFR CONDS
POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TJBQ AND TJMZ. WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ENE AT 10-20KT SHIFTING TO THE SE AT 10-15 KT AFT
01/18Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SEAS 3-5 FT ON TUESDAY SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FEET BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH TUESDAY...BECOMING LIGHT TO GENTLE FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 60W THIS AFTERNOON...WILL REACH THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY TUESDAY.

DISCUSSION...AFTER YESTERDAY TROPICAL WAVE...A RELATIVELY DRY
AND STABLE AIRMASS MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE EAST.
THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...NOT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS. AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRIDAY. LATEST SURFACE AND
SATELLITE ANALYSIS...DEPICTED A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 60 WEST. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WESTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA
OF MOISTURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
THAT WAVE...A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE
REGION AGAIN FROM THE EAST PROMOTING ONLY THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DIURNAL INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON UNTIL AT
LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEK.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT TJMZ BETWEEN 18Z-22Z IN
SHRA/-TSRA...WITH MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCD OVER WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR.
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS. SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE LESSER
ANTILLES ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...IMPACTING MAINLY THE
LEEWARD/USVI TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER AND MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUESDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  91  79  91 /  50  50  40  40
STT  80  90  79  88 /  50  50  50  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

09/11




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 311821
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
221 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH TUESDAY...BECOMING LIGHT TO GENTLE FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 60W THIS AFTERNOON...WILL REACH THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER YESTERDAY TROPICAL WAVE...A RELATIVELY DRY
AND STABLE AIRMASS MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE EAST.
THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...NOT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS. AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRIDAY. LATEST SURFACE AND
SATELLITE ANALYSIS...DEPICTED A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 60 WEST. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WESTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA
OF MOISTURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
THAT WAVE...A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE
REGION AGAIN FROM THE EAST PROMOTING ONLY THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DIURNAL INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON UNTIL AT
LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT TJMZ BETWEEN 18Z-22Z IN
SHRA/-TSRA...WITH MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCD OVER WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR.
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS. SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE LESSER
ANTILLES ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...IMPACTING MAINLY THE
LEEWARD/USVI TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER AND MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUESDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  91  79  91 /  50  50  40  40
STT  80  90  79  88 /  50  50  50  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

71/72



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 311821
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
221 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH TUESDAY...BECOMING LIGHT TO GENTLE FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 60W THIS AFTERNOON...WILL REACH THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER YESTERDAY TROPICAL WAVE...A RELATIVELY DRY
AND STABLE AIRMASS MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE EAST.
THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...NOT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS. AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRIDAY. LATEST SURFACE AND
SATELLITE ANALYSIS...DEPICTED A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 60 WEST. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WESTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA
OF MOISTURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
THAT WAVE...A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE
REGION AGAIN FROM THE EAST PROMOTING ONLY THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DIURNAL INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON UNTIL AT
LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT TJMZ BETWEEN 18Z-22Z IN
SHRA/-TSRA...WITH MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCD OVER WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR.
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS. SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE LESSER
ANTILLES ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...IMPACTING MAINLY THE
LEEWARD/USVI TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER AND MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUESDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  91  79  91 /  50  50  40  40
STT  80  90  79  88 /  50  50  50  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

71/72



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 311821
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
221 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH TUESDAY...BECOMING LIGHT TO GENTLE FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 60W THIS AFTERNOON...WILL REACH THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER YESTERDAY TROPICAL WAVE...A RELATIVELY DRY
AND STABLE AIRMASS MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE EAST.
THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...NOT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS. AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRIDAY. LATEST SURFACE AND
SATELLITE ANALYSIS...DEPICTED A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 60 WEST. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WESTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA
OF MOISTURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
THAT WAVE...A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE
REGION AGAIN FROM THE EAST PROMOTING ONLY THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DIURNAL INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON UNTIL AT
LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT TJMZ BETWEEN 18Z-22Z IN
SHRA/-TSRA...WITH MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCD OVER WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR.
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS. SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE LESSER
ANTILLES ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...IMPACTING MAINLY THE
LEEWARD/USVI TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER AND MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUESDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  91  79  91 /  50  50  40  40
STT  80  90  79  88 /  50  50  50  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

71/72



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 311821
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
221 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH TUESDAY...BECOMING LIGHT TO GENTLE FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 60W THIS AFTERNOON...WILL REACH THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER YESTERDAY TROPICAL WAVE...A RELATIVELY DRY
AND STABLE AIRMASS MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE EAST.
THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...NOT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS. AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRIDAY. LATEST SURFACE AND
SATELLITE ANALYSIS...DEPICTED A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 60 WEST. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WESTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA
OF MOISTURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
THAT WAVE...A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE
REGION AGAIN FROM THE EAST PROMOTING ONLY THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DIURNAL INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON UNTIL AT
LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT TJMZ BETWEEN 18Z-22Z IN
SHRA/-TSRA...WITH MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCD OVER WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR.
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS. SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE LESSER
ANTILLES ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...IMPACTING MAINLY THE
LEEWARD/USVI TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER AND MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUESDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  91  79  91 /  50  50  40  40
STT  80  90  79  88 /  50  50  50  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

71/72



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 311544
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1144 AM AST MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS WERE
NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT MOST OF THEN DISSIPATED LATE
THIS MORNING. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST GRIDS THIS MORNING
AS FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD AS TROPICAL WAVE
ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...IMPACTING MAINLY THE LEEWARD/USVI
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM AST MON AUG 31 2015/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOLDING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS TODAY AND TUESDAY...
BECOMING LIGHT TO GENTLE ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO GENTLE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 53W WILL REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.

DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED OVER THE WATERS.
COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 MPH OR LESS.

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY UNDER LIMITED MOISTURE.
HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
LOCAL EFFECT AND DIURNAL HEATING.SOME HAZINESS COULD BE EXPECTED
TODAY DUE TO SAL. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...NOW LOCATED NEAR 53W... MOVES ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS TUTT AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK
AND LOCAL ISLANDS REMAINS UNDER ITS CONVERGENT SIDE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS AT JMZ BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
IN SHRA/-TSRA...W/MTN TOP OBSCD OVER WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR. LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS. SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 14Z.
SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD AS TROPICAL WAVE
ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...IMPACTING MAINLY THE LEEWARD/USVI
TERMINALS.

MARINE...SEAS AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  91  79  91  79 /  20  50  50  40
STT  90  80  90  79 /  20  50  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

71/72



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 310915
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 AM AST MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOLDING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS TODAY AND TUESDAY...
BECOMING LIGHT TO GENTLE ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO GENTLE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 53W WILL REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED OVER THE WATERS.
COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 MPH OR LESS.

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY UNDER LIMITED MOISTURE.
HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
LOCAL EFFECT AND DIURNAL HEATING.SOME HAZINESS COULD BE EXPECTED
TODAY DUE TO SAL. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...NOW LOCATED NEAR 53W... MOVES ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS TUTT AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK
AND LOCAL ISLANDS REMAINS UNDER ITS CONVERGENT SIDE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS AT JMZ BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
IN SHRA/-TSRA...W/MTN TOP OBSCD OVER WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR. LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS. SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 14Z.
SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD AS TROPICAL WAVE
ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...IMPACTING MAINLY THE LEEWARD/USVI
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  91  79  91  79 /  20  50  50  40
STT  90  80  90  79 /  20  50  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

13/23



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 310915
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 AM AST MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOLDING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS TODAY AND TUESDAY...
BECOMING LIGHT TO GENTLE ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO GENTLE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 53W WILL REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED OVER THE WATERS.
COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 MPH OR LESS.

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY UNDER LIMITED MOISTURE.
HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
LOCAL EFFECT AND DIURNAL HEATING.SOME HAZINESS COULD BE EXPECTED
TODAY DUE TO SAL. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...NOW LOCATED NEAR 53W... MOVES ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS TUTT AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK
AND LOCAL ISLANDS REMAINS UNDER ITS CONVERGENT SIDE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS AT JMZ BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
IN SHRA/-TSRA...W/MTN TOP OBSCD OVER WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR. LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS. SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 14Z.
SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD AS TROPICAL WAVE
ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...IMPACTING MAINLY THE LEEWARD/USVI
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  91  79  91  79 /  20  50  50  40
STT  90  80  90  79 /  20  50  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

13/23




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 310915
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 AM AST MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOLDING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS TODAY AND TUESDAY...
BECOMING LIGHT TO GENTLE ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO GENTLE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 53W WILL REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED OVER THE WATERS.
COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 MPH OR LESS.

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY UNDER LIMITED MOISTURE.
HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
LOCAL EFFECT AND DIURNAL HEATING.SOME HAZINESS COULD BE EXPECTED
TODAY DUE TO SAL. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...NOW LOCATED NEAR 53W... MOVES ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS TUTT AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK
AND LOCAL ISLANDS REMAINS UNDER ITS CONVERGENT SIDE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS AT JMZ BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
IN SHRA/-TSRA...W/MTN TOP OBSCD OVER WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR. LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS. SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 14Z.
SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD AS TROPICAL WAVE
ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...IMPACTING MAINLY THE LEEWARD/USVI
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  91  79  91  79 /  20  50  50  40
STT  90  80  90  79 /  20  50  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

13/23




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 310226
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1026 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION. SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND CLOUDINESS QUICKLY DIMINISHED OVER LAND DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...AS DRIER AIR BEGAN TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
EAST...AND THE EASTERLY WAVE EXITED THE FORECAST AREA. ON MONDAY
EXPECT IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLANDS.HOWEVER...
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECT WILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES AND LESSER SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS FORECAST ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BASED ON THE MOST RECENT GFS MODEL GUIDANCE...THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
IS STILL FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED AT JMZ BETWEEN 31/18Z-
22Z IN SHRA. EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED BLW FL150.
SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFT 01/06Z AS TROPICAL WAVE REACHES
THE LEEWARD/USVI TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS CAN BE ON MONDAY. NO SIG CHG TO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AND UPDATE WERE MADE
TO THE MARINE FORECAST PACKAGE...BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND
PRESENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE MOVING IN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA...WILL
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. DRIER AIR FOR MONDAY THEN
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
RELATIVELY DRY AIR EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
KEEP MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WINDS WILL
RELAX FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
TODAY. THIS MORNING...SOME SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO...BUT THESE SHOWERS MOVED QUICKLY. IN THE
AFTERNOON..SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE SAN JUAN
METROPOLITAN AREA AND THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.
TROPICAL WAVE WILL EXIT THE LOCAL REGION LATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE MOVE WILL MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
SECOND WAVE HAVE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT.THEREFORE...AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LOCAL REGION. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...RELATIVELY DRY
AIR IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. IN THE
LONG TERM...AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

TROPICAL STORM FRED DEVELOPED YESTERDAY OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR THE AFRICAN COAST. ACCORDINGLY TO LATEST BULLETIN
FROM NHC...FRED WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...FAR AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION.

AVIATION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA WITH VCSH AT TJSJ AND
TIST. MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT
TJMZ AND TJBQ UNTIL 30/21Z IN SHRA/TSRA. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER THRU 30/23Z DIMINISHING AFTER THAT.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  80  90  79  89 /  20  20  50  50
STT  80  90  80  88 /  20  20  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

11/09




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 310226
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1026 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION. SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND CLOUDINESS QUICKLY DIMINISHED OVER LAND DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...AS DRIER AIR BEGAN TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
EAST...AND THE EASTERLY WAVE EXITED THE FORECAST AREA. ON MONDAY
EXPECT IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLANDS.HOWEVER...
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECT WILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES AND LESSER SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS FORECAST ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BASED ON THE MOST RECENT GFS MODEL GUIDANCE...THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
IS STILL FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED AT JMZ BETWEEN 31/18Z-
22Z IN SHRA. EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED BLW FL150.
SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFT 01/06Z AS TROPICAL WAVE REACHES
THE LEEWARD/USVI TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS CAN BE ON MONDAY. NO SIG CHG TO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AND UPDATE WERE MADE
TO THE MARINE FORECAST PACKAGE...BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND
PRESENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE MOVING IN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA...WILL
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. DRIER AIR FOR MONDAY THEN
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
RELATIVELY DRY AIR EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
KEEP MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WINDS WILL
RELAX FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
TODAY. THIS MORNING...SOME SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO...BUT THESE SHOWERS MOVED QUICKLY. IN THE
AFTERNOON..SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE SAN JUAN
METROPOLITAN AREA AND THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.
TROPICAL WAVE WILL EXIT THE LOCAL REGION LATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE MOVE WILL MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
SECOND WAVE HAVE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT.THEREFORE...AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LOCAL REGION. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...RELATIVELY DRY
AIR IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. IN THE
LONG TERM...AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

TROPICAL STORM FRED DEVELOPED YESTERDAY OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR THE AFRICAN COAST. ACCORDINGLY TO LATEST BULLETIN
FROM NHC...FRED WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...FAR AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION.

AVIATION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA WITH VCSH AT TJSJ AND
TIST. MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT
TJMZ AND TJBQ UNTIL 30/21Z IN SHRA/TSRA. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER THRU 30/23Z DIMINISHING AFTER THAT.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  80  90  79  89 /  20  20  50  50
STT  80  90  80  88 /  20  20  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

11/09




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 310226
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1026 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION. SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND CLOUDINESS QUICKLY DIMINISHED OVER LAND DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...AS DRIER AIR BEGAN TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
EAST...AND THE EASTERLY WAVE EXITED THE FORECAST AREA. ON MONDAY
EXPECT IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLANDS.HOWEVER...
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECT WILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES AND LESSER SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS FORECAST ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BASED ON THE MOST RECENT GFS MODEL GUIDANCE...THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
IS STILL FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED AT JMZ BETWEEN 31/18Z-
22Z IN SHRA. EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED BLW FL150.
SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFT 01/06Z AS TROPICAL WAVE REACHES
THE LEEWARD/USVI TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS CAN BE ON MONDAY. NO SIG CHG TO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AND UPDATE WERE MADE
TO THE MARINE FORECAST PACKAGE...BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND
PRESENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE MOVING IN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA...WILL
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. DRIER AIR FOR MONDAY THEN
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
RELATIVELY DRY AIR EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
KEEP MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WINDS WILL
RELAX FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
TODAY. THIS MORNING...SOME SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO...BUT THESE SHOWERS MOVED QUICKLY. IN THE
AFTERNOON..SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE SAN JUAN
METROPOLITAN AREA AND THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.
TROPICAL WAVE WILL EXIT THE LOCAL REGION LATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE MOVE WILL MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
SECOND WAVE HAVE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT.THEREFORE...AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LOCAL REGION. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...RELATIVELY DRY
AIR IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. IN THE
LONG TERM...AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

TROPICAL STORM FRED DEVELOPED YESTERDAY OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR THE AFRICAN COAST. ACCORDINGLY TO LATEST BULLETIN
FROM NHC...FRED WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...FAR AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION.

AVIATION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA WITH VCSH AT TJSJ AND
TIST. MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT
TJMZ AND TJBQ UNTIL 30/21Z IN SHRA/TSRA. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER THRU 30/23Z DIMINISHING AFTER THAT.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  80  90  79  89 /  20  20  50  50
STT  80  90  80  88 /  20  20  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

11/09




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 310226
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1026 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION. SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND CLOUDINESS QUICKLY DIMINISHED OVER LAND DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...AS DRIER AIR BEGAN TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
EAST...AND THE EASTERLY WAVE EXITED THE FORECAST AREA. ON MONDAY
EXPECT IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLANDS.HOWEVER...
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECT WILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES AND LESSER SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS FORECAST ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BASED ON THE MOST RECENT GFS MODEL GUIDANCE...THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
IS STILL FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED AT JMZ BETWEEN 31/18Z-
22Z IN SHRA. EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED BLW FL150.
SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFT 01/06Z AS TROPICAL WAVE REACHES
THE LEEWARD/USVI TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS CAN BE ON MONDAY. NO SIG CHG TO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AND UPDATE WERE MADE
TO THE MARINE FORECAST PACKAGE...BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND
PRESENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE MOVING IN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA...WILL
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. DRIER AIR FOR MONDAY THEN
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
RELATIVELY DRY AIR EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
KEEP MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WINDS WILL
RELAX FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
TODAY. THIS MORNING...SOME SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO...BUT THESE SHOWERS MOVED QUICKLY. IN THE
AFTERNOON..SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE SAN JUAN
METROPOLITAN AREA AND THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.
TROPICAL WAVE WILL EXIT THE LOCAL REGION LATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE MOVE WILL MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
SECOND WAVE HAVE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT.THEREFORE...AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LOCAL REGION. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...RELATIVELY DRY
AIR IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. IN THE
LONG TERM...AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

TROPICAL STORM FRED DEVELOPED YESTERDAY OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR THE AFRICAN COAST. ACCORDINGLY TO LATEST BULLETIN
FROM NHC...FRED WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...FAR AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION.

AVIATION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA WITH VCSH AT TJSJ AND
TIST. MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT
TJMZ AND TJBQ UNTIL 30/21Z IN SHRA/TSRA. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER THRU 30/23Z DIMINISHING AFTER THAT.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  80  90  79  89 /  20  20  50  50
STT  80  90  80  88 /  20  20  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

11/09




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301843
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
243 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE MOVING IN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA...WILL
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. DRIER AIR FOR MONDAY THEN
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
RELATIVELY DRY AIR EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
KEEP MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WINDS WILL
RELAX FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
TODAY. THIS MORNING...SOME SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO...BUT THESE SHOWERS MOVED QUICKLY. IN THE
AFTERNOON..SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE SAN JUAN
METROPOLITAN AREA AND THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.
TROPICAL WAVE WILL EXIT THE LOCAL REGION LATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE MOVE WILL MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
SECOND WAVE HAVE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT.THEREFORE...AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LOCAL REGION. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...RELATIVELY DRY
AIR IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. IN THE
LONG TERM...AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

TROPICAL STORM FRED DEVELOPED YESTERDAY OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR THE AFRICAN COAST. ACCORDINGLY TO LATEST BULLETIN
FROM NHC...FRED WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...FAR AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA WITH VCSH AT TJSJ AND
TIST. MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT
TJMZ AND TJBQ UNTIL 30/21Z IN SHRA/TSRA. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER THRU 30/23Z DIMINISHING AFTER THAT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  80  90  79  89 /  20  20  20  30
STT  80  90  80  88 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHWEST-
     WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

72/71



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301843
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
243 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE MOVING IN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA...WILL
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. DRIER AIR FOR MONDAY THEN
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
RELATIVELY DRY AIR EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
KEEP MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WINDS WILL
RELAX FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
TODAY. THIS MORNING...SOME SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO...BUT THESE SHOWERS MOVED QUICKLY. IN THE
AFTERNOON..SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE SAN JUAN
METROPOLITAN AREA AND THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.
TROPICAL WAVE WILL EXIT THE LOCAL REGION LATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE MOVE WILL MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
SECOND WAVE HAVE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT.THEREFORE...AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LOCAL REGION. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...RELATIVELY DRY
AIR IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. IN THE
LONG TERM...AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

TROPICAL STORM FRED DEVELOPED YESTERDAY OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR THE AFRICAN COAST. ACCORDINGLY TO LATEST BULLETIN
FROM NHC...FRED WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...FAR AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA WITH VCSH AT TJSJ AND
TIST. MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT
TJMZ AND TJBQ UNTIL 30/21Z IN SHRA/TSRA. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER THRU 30/23Z DIMINISHING AFTER THAT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  80  90  79  89 /  20  20  20  30
STT  80  90  80  88 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHWEST-
     WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

72/71




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301433
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1033 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE REGION.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS MOVED TO THE WATERS AND AT THIS TIME ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.
HOWEVER...THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL
COMBINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WEST NORTHWEST OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY AS A RELATIVELY
DRY AIR MASS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST. BY
TUESDAY...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 50 WEST THIS MORNING...IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS...PRODUCING AGAIN AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
TROPICAL STORM FRED DEVELOPED YESTERDAY OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR THE AFRICAN COAST. ACCORDINGLY TO LATEST BULLETIN
FROM NHC...FRED WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA WITH VCSH
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED AT TJMZ AND TBQ BETWEEN 30/17Z AND 30/21Z
IN SHRA/TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME SEE BREEZE
VARIATIONS THRU 29/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...NOT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS REASONING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE MOVING IN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
DRIER AIR FOR MONDAY THEN ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVE IN LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. RELATIVELY DRY AIR EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL KEEP MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN WINDS WILL RELAX FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE IS BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL AREA...MAINLY
AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS...USVI...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE MORNING...IMPROVING A LITTLE IN THE LATE MORNING
BEFORE CONVECTION STARTS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA BY THIS
EVENING...BUT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.
IT SHOULD DRY UP A LITTLE ON MONDAY WITH SOME SAHARAN DUST MOVING
IN...BEFORE ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN ON TUESDAY WITH SOME
MOISTURE LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO BRING SOME
GOOD MOISTURE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY.

AFTER THE MOISTURE LEAVES LATE WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE LESS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND NO REAL UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS TO SPEAK OF. AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS BUT IT IS TO THE
EAST OF OUR LOCAL AREA...CAUSING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
OTHER THAN MAYBE SOME LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS...THERE IS LITTLE IN
THE FORM OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKING FEATURES OBSERVED IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

AVIATION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SHRA POSSIBLE AT JSJ/IST AND ISX THROUGH
30/15Z. MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED AT JMZ AND
JBQ BETWEEN 30/17Z AND 30/21Z IN SHRA/TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO
20 KNOTS WITH SOME SEE BREEZE VARIATIONS THRU 29/23Z.

MARINE...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT JOBOS BEACH IN
ISABELA PUERTO RICO. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS
COASTAL WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS SOME AREAS. SEAS WILL BE
MAINLY UP TO 5 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  80  90  79  89 /  20  20  20  30
STT  80  90  80  88 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHWEST-
     WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

72/71




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301433
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1033 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE REGION.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS MOVED TO THE WATERS AND AT THIS TIME ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.
HOWEVER...THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL
COMBINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WEST NORTHWEST OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY AS A RELATIVELY
DRY AIR MASS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST. BY
TUESDAY...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 50 WEST THIS MORNING...IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS...PRODUCING AGAIN AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
TROPICAL STORM FRED DEVELOPED YESTERDAY OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR THE AFRICAN COAST. ACCORDINGLY TO LATEST BULLETIN
FROM NHC...FRED WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA WITH VCSH
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED AT TJMZ AND TBQ BETWEEN 30/17Z AND 30/21Z
IN SHRA/TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME SEE BREEZE
VARIATIONS THRU 29/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...NOT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS REASONING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE MOVING IN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
DRIER AIR FOR MONDAY THEN ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVE IN LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. RELATIVELY DRY AIR EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL KEEP MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN WINDS WILL RELAX FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE IS BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL AREA...MAINLY
AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS...USVI...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE MORNING...IMPROVING A LITTLE IN THE LATE MORNING
BEFORE CONVECTION STARTS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA BY THIS
EVENING...BUT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.
IT SHOULD DRY UP A LITTLE ON MONDAY WITH SOME SAHARAN DUST MOVING
IN...BEFORE ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN ON TUESDAY WITH SOME
MOISTURE LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO BRING SOME
GOOD MOISTURE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY.

AFTER THE MOISTURE LEAVES LATE WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE LESS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND NO REAL UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS TO SPEAK OF. AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS BUT IT IS TO THE
EAST OF OUR LOCAL AREA...CAUSING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
OTHER THAN MAYBE SOME LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS...THERE IS LITTLE IN
THE FORM OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKING FEATURES OBSERVED IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

AVIATION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SHRA POSSIBLE AT JSJ/IST AND ISX THROUGH
30/15Z. MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED AT JMZ AND
JBQ BETWEEN 30/17Z AND 30/21Z IN SHRA/TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO
20 KNOTS WITH SOME SEE BREEZE VARIATIONS THRU 29/23Z.

MARINE...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT JOBOS BEACH IN
ISABELA PUERTO RICO. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS
COASTAL WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS SOME AREAS. SEAS WILL BE
MAINLY UP TO 5 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  80  90  79  89 /  20  20  20  30
STT  80  90  80  88 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHWEST-
     WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

72/71




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301433
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1033 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE REGION.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS MOVED TO THE WATERS AND AT THIS TIME ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.
HOWEVER...THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL
COMBINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WEST NORTHWEST OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY AS A RELATIVELY
DRY AIR MASS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST. BY
TUESDAY...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 50 WEST THIS MORNING...IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS...PRODUCING AGAIN AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
TROPICAL STORM FRED DEVELOPED YESTERDAY OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR THE AFRICAN COAST. ACCORDINGLY TO LATEST BULLETIN
FROM NHC...FRED WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA WITH VCSH
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED AT TJMZ AND TBQ BETWEEN 30/17Z AND 30/21Z
IN SHRA/TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME SEE BREEZE
VARIATIONS THRU 29/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...NOT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS REASONING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE MOVING IN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
DRIER AIR FOR MONDAY THEN ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVE IN LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. RELATIVELY DRY AIR EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL KEEP MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN WINDS WILL RELAX FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE IS BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL AREA...MAINLY
AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS...USVI...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE MORNING...IMPROVING A LITTLE IN THE LATE MORNING
BEFORE CONVECTION STARTS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA BY THIS
EVENING...BUT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.
IT SHOULD DRY UP A LITTLE ON MONDAY WITH SOME SAHARAN DUST MOVING
IN...BEFORE ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN ON TUESDAY WITH SOME
MOISTURE LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO BRING SOME
GOOD MOISTURE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY.

AFTER THE MOISTURE LEAVES LATE WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE LESS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND NO REAL UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS TO SPEAK OF. AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS BUT IT IS TO THE
EAST OF OUR LOCAL AREA...CAUSING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
OTHER THAN MAYBE SOME LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS...THERE IS LITTLE IN
THE FORM OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKING FEATURES OBSERVED IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

AVIATION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SHRA POSSIBLE AT JSJ/IST AND ISX THROUGH
30/15Z. MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED AT JMZ AND
JBQ BETWEEN 30/17Z AND 30/21Z IN SHRA/TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO
20 KNOTS WITH SOME SEE BREEZE VARIATIONS THRU 29/23Z.

MARINE...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT JOBOS BEACH IN
ISABELA PUERTO RICO. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS
COASTAL WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS SOME AREAS. SEAS WILL BE
MAINLY UP TO 5 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  80  90  79  89 /  20  20  20  30
STT  80  90  80  88 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHWEST-
     WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

72/71



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301004
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
604 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE MOVING IN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
DRIER AIR FOR MONDAY THEN ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVE IN LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. RELATIVELY DRY AIR EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL KEEP MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN WINDS WILL RELAX FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE IS BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL AREA...MAINLY
AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS...USVI...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE MORNING...IMPROVING A LITTLE IN THE LATE MORNING
BEFORE CONVECTION STARTS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA BY THIS
EVENING...BUT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.
IT SHOULD DRY UP A LITTLE ON MONDAY WITH SOME SAHARAN DUST MOVING
IN...BEFORE ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN ON TUESDAY WITH SOME
MOISTURE LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO BRING SOME
GOOD MOISTURE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY.

AFTER THE MOISTURE LEAVES LATE WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE LESS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND NO REAL UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS TO SPEAK OF. AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS BUT IT IS TO THE
EAST OF OUR LOCAL AREA...CAUSING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
OTHER THAN MAYBE SOME LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS...THERE IS LITTLE IN
THE FORM OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKING FEATURES OBSERVED IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SHRA POSSIBLE AT JSJ/IST AND ISX THROUGH
30/15Z. MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED AT JMZ AND
JBQ BETWEEN 30/17Z AND 30/21Z IN SHRA/TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO
20 KNOTS WITH SOME SEE BREEZE VARIATIONS THRU 29/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT JOBOS BEACH IN
ISABELA PUERTO RICO. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS
COASTAL WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS SOME AREAS. SEAS WILL BE
MAINLY UP TO 5 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  80  90  79 /  50  20  20  20
STT  89  80  90  80 /  50  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHWEST-
     WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301004
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
604 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE MOVING IN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
DRIER AIR FOR MONDAY THEN ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVE IN LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. RELATIVELY DRY AIR EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL KEEP MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN WINDS WILL RELAX FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE IS BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL AREA...MAINLY
AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS...USVI...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE MORNING...IMPROVING A LITTLE IN THE LATE MORNING
BEFORE CONVECTION STARTS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA BY THIS
EVENING...BUT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.
IT SHOULD DRY UP A LITTLE ON MONDAY WITH SOME SAHARAN DUST MOVING
IN...BEFORE ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN ON TUESDAY WITH SOME
MOISTURE LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO BRING SOME
GOOD MOISTURE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY.

AFTER THE MOISTURE LEAVES LATE WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE LESS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND NO REAL UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS TO SPEAK OF. AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS BUT IT IS TO THE
EAST OF OUR LOCAL AREA...CAUSING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
OTHER THAN MAYBE SOME LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS...THERE IS LITTLE IN
THE FORM OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKING FEATURES OBSERVED IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SHRA POSSIBLE AT JSJ/IST AND ISX THROUGH
30/15Z. MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED AT JMZ AND
JBQ BETWEEN 30/17Z AND 30/21Z IN SHRA/TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO
20 KNOTS WITH SOME SEE BREEZE VARIATIONS THRU 29/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT JOBOS BEACH IN
ISABELA PUERTO RICO. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS
COASTAL WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS SOME AREAS. SEAS WILL BE
MAINLY UP TO 5 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  80  90  79 /  50  20  20  20
STT  89  80  90  80 /  50  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHWEST-
     WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301004
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
604 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE MOVING IN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
DRIER AIR FOR MONDAY THEN ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVE IN LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. RELATIVELY DRY AIR EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL KEEP MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN WINDS WILL RELAX FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE IS BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL AREA...MAINLY
AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS...USVI...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE MORNING...IMPROVING A LITTLE IN THE LATE MORNING
BEFORE CONVECTION STARTS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA BY THIS
EVENING...BUT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.
IT SHOULD DRY UP A LITTLE ON MONDAY WITH SOME SAHARAN DUST MOVING
IN...BEFORE ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN ON TUESDAY WITH SOME
MOISTURE LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO BRING SOME
GOOD MOISTURE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY.

AFTER THE MOISTURE LEAVES LATE WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE LESS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND NO REAL UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS TO SPEAK OF. AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS BUT IT IS TO THE
EAST OF OUR LOCAL AREA...CAUSING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
OTHER THAN MAYBE SOME LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS...THERE IS LITTLE IN
THE FORM OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKING FEATURES OBSERVED IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SHRA POSSIBLE AT JSJ/IST AND ISX THROUGH
30/15Z. MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED AT JMZ AND
JBQ BETWEEN 30/17Z AND 30/21Z IN SHRA/TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO
20 KNOTS WITH SOME SEE BREEZE VARIATIONS THRU 29/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT JOBOS BEACH IN
ISABELA PUERTO RICO. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS
COASTAL WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS SOME AREAS. SEAS WILL BE
MAINLY UP TO 5 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  80  90  79 /  50  20  20  20
STT  89  80  90  80 /  50  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHWEST-
     WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25




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