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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 051827
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
227 PM AST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH PRES WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.DISCUSSION...OTHER THAN A MOISTURE SURGE SUN NIGHT-MON ASSOCIATED
WITH A TRADE WIND SURGE...BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE 7-DAY FCST PERIOD UNDER
BUILDING/STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. RED FLAG CONDITIONS WERE MET
TODAY AT CAMP SANTIAGO AND APPEAR MORE THAN LIKELY AGAIN TOMORROW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 48 HRS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AOA 16-KT DURING DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN SOME ON SAT.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT NEAR 20-KT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
THEN STRENGTHEN 20-25 KT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS 6-8 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MIN_RH DROPPED TO 33% AT CAMP SANTIAGO TODAY WITH
EAST WINDS OF 20 MPH. THUS..RED FLAG CONDITIONS WERE MET.
CONDITIONS LOOK DRIER TOMORROW AND ALSO LIKELY TO START OUT DRIER
WITH LESS CLOUDS THAN TODAY. HENCE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  87  74  87 /  10  20  20  10
STT  74  86  75  85 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST MONDAY FOR
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM
TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM- COASTAL
WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM- COASTAL WATERS OF
NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM- COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN
PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

11/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 051827
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
227 PM AST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH PRES WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.DISCUSSION...OTHER THAN A MOISTURE SURGE SUN NIGHT-MON ASSOCIATED
WITH A TRADE WIND SURGE...BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE 7-DAY FCST PERIOD UNDER
BUILDING/STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. RED FLAG CONDITIONS WERE MET
TODAY AT CAMP SANTIAGO AND APPEAR MORE THAN LIKELY AGAIN TOMORROW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 48 HRS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AOA 16-KT DURING DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN SOME ON SAT.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT NEAR 20-KT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
THEN STRENGTHEN 20-25 KT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS 6-8 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MIN_RH DROPPED TO 33% AT CAMP SANTIAGO TODAY WITH
EAST WINDS OF 20 MPH. THUS..RED FLAG CONDITIONS WERE MET.
CONDITIONS LOOK DRIER TOMORROW AND ALSO LIKELY TO START OUT DRIER
WITH LESS CLOUDS THAN TODAY. HENCE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  87  74  87 /  10  20  20  10
STT  74  86  75  85 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST MONDAY FOR
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM
TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM- COASTAL
WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM- COASTAL WATERS OF
NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM- COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN
PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

11/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 051827
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
227 PM AST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH PRES WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.DISCUSSION...OTHER THAN A MOISTURE SURGE SUN NIGHT-MON ASSOCIATED
WITH A TRADE WIND SURGE...BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE 7-DAY FCST PERIOD UNDER
BUILDING/STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. RED FLAG CONDITIONS WERE MET
TODAY AT CAMP SANTIAGO AND APPEAR MORE THAN LIKELY AGAIN TOMORROW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 48 HRS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AOA 16-KT DURING DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN SOME ON SAT.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT NEAR 20-KT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
THEN STRENGTHEN 20-25 KT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS 6-8 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MIN_RH DROPPED TO 33% AT CAMP SANTIAGO TODAY WITH
EAST WINDS OF 20 MPH. THUS..RED FLAG CONDITIONS WERE MET.
CONDITIONS LOOK DRIER TOMORROW AND ALSO LIKELY TO START OUT DRIER
WITH LESS CLOUDS THAN TODAY. HENCE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  87  74  87 /  10  20  20  10
STT  74  86  75  85 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST MONDAY FOR
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM
TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM- COASTAL
WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM- COASTAL WATERS OF
NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM- COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN
PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

11/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 051827
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
227 PM AST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH PRES WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.DISCUSSION...OTHER THAN A MOISTURE SURGE SUN NIGHT-MON ASSOCIATED
WITH A TRADE WIND SURGE...BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE 7-DAY FCST PERIOD UNDER
BUILDING/STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. RED FLAG CONDITIONS WERE MET
TODAY AT CAMP SANTIAGO AND APPEAR MORE THAN LIKELY AGAIN TOMORROW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 48 HRS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AOA 16-KT DURING DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN SOME ON SAT.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT NEAR 20-KT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
THEN STRENGTHEN 20-25 KT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS 6-8 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MIN_RH DROPPED TO 33% AT CAMP SANTIAGO TODAY WITH
EAST WINDS OF 20 MPH. THUS..RED FLAG CONDITIONS WERE MET.
CONDITIONS LOOK DRIER TOMORROW AND ALSO LIKELY TO START OUT DRIER
WITH LESS CLOUDS THAN TODAY. HENCE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  87  74  87 /  10  20  20  10
STT  74  86  75  85 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST MONDAY FOR
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM
TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM- COASTAL
WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM- COASTAL WATERS OF
NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM- COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN
PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

11/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 051508
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1108 AM AST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...FAST MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS AFFECTED PORTIONS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST PR THIS MORNING. MINIMAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE
OBSERVED WITH THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. MINIMAL CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO THE
FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF TODAY ACROSS THE
FLYING AREA. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN PASSING SHRA
OVER THE USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS. NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED
BELOW FL250.

&&

.MARINE....BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE CHOPPY TO ROUGH CONDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MARINERS SHOULD
EXPECTED SEAS OF 6-8 FEET AND WINDS OF 15-21 KT WITH OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS OF 25-30 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM AST THU MAR 5 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS ISLANDS...EAST OF PUERTO RICO...AND
THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO
THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AND IT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...NOT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS
DETECTED OVER ANY OF LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND SO FAR THIS
MORNING. STRONG SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...VERY SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE
NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH LIMITED CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS. GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS DRIER AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS DRY WEATHER PATTERN IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG TRADES ACROSS
THE REGION WILL INCREASE THE FIRE HAZARDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. STAY TUNED.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS...WITH WEATHER DRYING UP IN THE
MORNING HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO E-NE...
INCREASING TO AROUND 20KTS AFTER 05/14Z AND GUSTY.

MARINE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE CHOPPY TO ROUGH
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MARINERS SHOULD EXPECTED SEAS OF 6-8 FEET AND WINDS OF 15-23 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT.

FIRE WEATHER...STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL SUPPORT UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND RAPID DRYING OF FUELS TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
COASTAL PLAINS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL SIGNIFICANTLY AND REACH NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME
AREAS. THE INCREASING EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL LEAD TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THESE FEATURES WILL INDUCE AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS...AND
MONA ISLAND THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  85  74  87  74 /  10  10  10  20
STT  78  74  86  75 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST MONDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT
     10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

11/64






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 051508
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1108 AM AST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...FAST MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS AFFECTED PORTIONS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST PR THIS MORNING. MINIMAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE
OBSERVED WITH THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. MINIMAL CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO THE
FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF TODAY ACROSS THE
FLYING AREA. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN PASSING SHRA
OVER THE USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS. NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED
BELOW FL250.

&&

.MARINE....BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE CHOPPY TO ROUGH CONDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MARINERS SHOULD
EXPECTED SEAS OF 6-8 FEET AND WINDS OF 15-21 KT WITH OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS OF 25-30 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM AST THU MAR 5 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS ISLANDS...EAST OF PUERTO RICO...AND
THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO
THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AND IT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...NOT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS
DETECTED OVER ANY OF LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND SO FAR THIS
MORNING. STRONG SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...VERY SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE
NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH LIMITED CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS. GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS DRIER AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS DRY WEATHER PATTERN IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG TRADES ACROSS
THE REGION WILL INCREASE THE FIRE HAZARDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. STAY TUNED.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS...WITH WEATHER DRYING UP IN THE
MORNING HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO E-NE...
INCREASING TO AROUND 20KTS AFTER 05/14Z AND GUSTY.

MARINE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE CHOPPY TO ROUGH
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MARINERS SHOULD EXPECTED SEAS OF 6-8 FEET AND WINDS OF 15-23 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT.

FIRE WEATHER...STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL SUPPORT UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND RAPID DRYING OF FUELS TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
COASTAL PLAINS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL SIGNIFICANTLY AND REACH NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME
AREAS. THE INCREASING EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL LEAD TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THESE FEATURES WILL INDUCE AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS...AND
MONA ISLAND THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  85  74  87  74 /  10  10  10  20
STT  78  74  86  75 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST MONDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT
     10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

11/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 050848
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
448 AM AST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS ISLANDS...EAST OF PUERTO RICO...AND
THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO
THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AND IT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...NOT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS
DETECTED OVER ANY OF LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND SO FAR THIS
MORNING. STRONG SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...VERY SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE
NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH LIMITED CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS. GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS DRIER AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS DRY WEATHER PATTERN IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG TRADES ACROSS
THE REGION WILL INCREASE THE FIRE HAZARDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS...WITH WEATHER DRYING UP IN THE
MORNING HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO E-NE...
INCREASING TO AROUND 20KTS AFTER 05/14Z AND GUSTY.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE CHOPPY TO ROUGH
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MARINERS SHOULD EXPECTED SEAS OF 6-8 FEET AND WINDS OF 15-23 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL SUPPORT UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND RAPID DRYING OF FUELS TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
COASTAL PLAINS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL SIGNIFICANTLY AND REACH NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME
AREAS. THE INCREASING EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL LEAD TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THESE FEATURES WILL INDUCE AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS...AND
MONA ISLAND THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  74  87  74 /  20  10  10  20
STT  85  74  86  75 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 AM AST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

09/72





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 050848
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
448 AM AST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS ISLANDS...EAST OF PUERTO RICO...AND
THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO
THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AND IT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...NOT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS
DETECTED OVER ANY OF LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND SO FAR THIS
MORNING. STRONG SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...VERY SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE
NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH LIMITED CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS. GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS DRIER AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS DRY WEATHER PATTERN IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG TRADES ACROSS
THE REGION WILL INCREASE THE FIRE HAZARDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS...WITH WEATHER DRYING UP IN THE
MORNING HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO E-NE...
INCREASING TO AROUND 20KTS AFTER 05/14Z AND GUSTY.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE CHOPPY TO ROUGH
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MARINERS SHOULD EXPECTED SEAS OF 6-8 FEET AND WINDS OF 15-23 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL SUPPORT UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND RAPID DRYING OF FUELS TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
COASTAL PLAINS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL SIGNIFICANTLY AND REACH NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME
AREAS. THE INCREASING EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL LEAD TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THESE FEATURES WILL INDUCE AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS...AND
MONA ISLAND THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  74  87  74 /  20  10  10  20
STT  85  74  86  75 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 AM AST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

09/72





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 050848
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
448 AM AST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS ISLANDS...EAST OF PUERTO RICO...AND
THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO
THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AND IT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...NOT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS
DETECTED OVER ANY OF LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND SO FAR THIS
MORNING. STRONG SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...VERY SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE
NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH LIMITED CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS. GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS DRIER AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS DRY WEATHER PATTERN IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG TRADES ACROSS
THE REGION WILL INCREASE THE FIRE HAZARDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS...WITH WEATHER DRYING UP IN THE
MORNING HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO E-NE...
INCREASING TO AROUND 20KTS AFTER 05/14Z AND GUSTY.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE CHOPPY TO ROUGH
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MARINERS SHOULD EXPECTED SEAS OF 6-8 FEET AND WINDS OF 15-23 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL SUPPORT UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND RAPID DRYING OF FUELS TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
COASTAL PLAINS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL SIGNIFICANTLY AND REACH NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME
AREAS. THE INCREASING EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL LEAD TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THESE FEATURES WILL INDUCE AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS...AND
MONA ISLAND THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  74  87  74 /  20  10  10  20
STT  85  74  86  75 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 AM AST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

09/72






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 050848
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
448 AM AST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS ISLANDS...EAST OF PUERTO RICO...AND
THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO
THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AND IT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...NOT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS
DETECTED OVER ANY OF LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND SO FAR THIS
MORNING. STRONG SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...VERY SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE
NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH LIMITED CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS. GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS DRIER AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS DRY WEATHER PATTERN IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG TRADES ACROSS
THE REGION WILL INCREASE THE FIRE HAZARDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS...WITH WEATHER DRYING UP IN THE
MORNING HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO E-NE...
INCREASING TO AROUND 20KTS AFTER 05/14Z AND GUSTY.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE CHOPPY TO ROUGH
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MARINERS SHOULD EXPECTED SEAS OF 6-8 FEET AND WINDS OF 15-23 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL SUPPORT UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND RAPID DRYING OF FUELS TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
COASTAL PLAINS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL SIGNIFICANTLY AND REACH NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME
AREAS. THE INCREASING EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL LEAD TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THESE FEATURES WILL INDUCE AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS...AND
MONA ISLAND THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  74  87  74 /  20  10  10  20
STT  85  74  86  75 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 AM AST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

09/72






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 050242
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1042 PM AST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTED MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. BREEZE CONDITIONS
CONTINUED OVER THE REGION WITH WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THIS SAME WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AND THURSDAY. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST GRIDS TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH WEATHER
DRYING UP IN THE MORNING HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
EAST TO E-NE AT 10-15 KTS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO AROUND 20KTS
AFTER 05/14Z AND GUSTY. OVERNIGHT WINDS UP TO FL020 ARE EXPECTED TO
BE EASTERLY BETWEEN 15-25 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...BOUY 41043 AROUND 180 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
SHOWED SEAS BETWEEN 7 TO 8 FEET. MEANWHILE...BUOY 42060 IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WAS SHOWING ALSO SEAS OF 7 FEET. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT AS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 7 FEET AND WINDS AROUND 23 KNOTS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM AST WED MAR 4 2015/

SYNOPSIS...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER CONVERGENCE ALOFT
WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW.

DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...WITH SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WERE ALSO NOTED ACROSS SW PUERTO RICO...
BUT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MINIMAL SO FAR. WINDS WERE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER
CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND BELOW TO NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. HOWEVER...
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FROM
TIME TO TIME AS SURFACE HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA CONTINUES
TO PROMOTE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED...IF ANY...EACH DAY DUE TO A STRONG CAP AT 700-800MB.
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED NEXT WORKWEEK AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP COLLAPSES WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

AVIATION....VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT IN PASSING SHRA
OVER THE USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS. NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED
BELOW FL250.

MARINE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE CHOPPY TO ROUGH
CONDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MARINERS SHOULD EXPECTED SEAS OF 6-8 FEET AND WINDS OF 15-23 KT
WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  86  74  86 /  20  20  10  10
STT  74  86  74  85 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST SATURDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

25/71







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 050242
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1042 PM AST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTED MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. BREEZE CONDITIONS
CONTINUED OVER THE REGION WITH WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THIS SAME WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AND THURSDAY. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST GRIDS TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH WEATHER
DRYING UP IN THE MORNING HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
EAST TO E-NE AT 10-15 KTS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO AROUND 20KTS
AFTER 05/14Z AND GUSTY. OVERNIGHT WINDS UP TO FL020 ARE EXPECTED TO
BE EASTERLY BETWEEN 15-25 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...BOUY 41043 AROUND 180 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
SHOWED SEAS BETWEEN 7 TO 8 FEET. MEANWHILE...BUOY 42060 IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WAS SHOWING ALSO SEAS OF 7 FEET. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT AS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 7 FEET AND WINDS AROUND 23 KNOTS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM AST WED MAR 4 2015/

SYNOPSIS...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER CONVERGENCE ALOFT
WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW.

DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...WITH SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WERE ALSO NOTED ACROSS SW PUERTO RICO...
BUT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MINIMAL SO FAR. WINDS WERE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER
CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND BELOW TO NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. HOWEVER...
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FROM
TIME TO TIME AS SURFACE HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA CONTINUES
TO PROMOTE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED...IF ANY...EACH DAY DUE TO A STRONG CAP AT 700-800MB.
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED NEXT WORKWEEK AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP COLLAPSES WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

AVIATION....VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT IN PASSING SHRA
OVER THE USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS. NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED
BELOW FL250.

MARINE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE CHOPPY TO ROUGH
CONDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MARINERS SHOULD EXPECTED SEAS OF 6-8 FEET AND WINDS OF 15-23 KT
WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  86  74  86 /  20  20  10  10
STT  74  86  74  85 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST SATURDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

25/71








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041846
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER CONVERGENCE ALOFT
WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...WITH SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WERE ALSO NOTED ACROSS SW PUERTO RICO...
BUT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MINIMAL SO FAR. WINDS WERE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER
CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND BELOW TO NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. HOWEVER...
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FROM
TIME TO TIME AS SURFACE HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA CONTINUES
TO PROMOTE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED...IF ANY...EACH DAY DUE TO A STRONG CAP AT 700-800MB.
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED NEXT WORKWEEK AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP COLLAPSES WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT IN PASSING SHRA
OVER THE USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS. NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED
BELOW FL250.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE CHOPPY TO ROUGH
CONDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MARINERS SHOULD EXPECTED SEAS OF 6-8 FEET AND WINDS OF 15-23 KT
WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  86  74  86 /  20  20  10  10
STT  74  86  74  85 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST SATURDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

11/23





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041846
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER CONVERGENCE ALOFT
WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...WITH SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WERE ALSO NOTED ACROSS SW PUERTO RICO...
BUT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MINIMAL SO FAR. WINDS WERE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER
CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND BELOW TO NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. HOWEVER...
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FROM
TIME TO TIME AS SURFACE HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA CONTINUES
TO PROMOTE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED...IF ANY...EACH DAY DUE TO A STRONG CAP AT 700-800MB.
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED NEXT WORKWEEK AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP COLLAPSES WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT IN PASSING SHRA
OVER THE USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS. NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED
BELOW FL250.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE CHOPPY TO ROUGH
CONDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MARINERS SHOULD EXPECTED SEAS OF 6-8 FEET AND WINDS OF 15-23 KT
WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  86  74  86 /  20  20  10  10
STT  74  86  74  85 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST SATURDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

11/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041846
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER CONVERGENCE ALOFT
WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...WITH SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WERE ALSO NOTED ACROSS SW PUERTO RICO...
BUT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MINIMAL SO FAR. WINDS WERE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER
CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND BELOW TO NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. HOWEVER...
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FROM
TIME TO TIME AS SURFACE HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA CONTINUES
TO PROMOTE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED...IF ANY...EACH DAY DUE TO A STRONG CAP AT 700-800MB.
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED NEXT WORKWEEK AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP COLLAPSES WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT IN PASSING SHRA
OVER THE USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS. NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED
BELOW FL250.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE CHOPPY TO ROUGH
CONDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MARINERS SHOULD EXPECTED SEAS OF 6-8 FEET AND WINDS OF 15-23 KT
WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  86  74  86 /  20  20  10  10
STT  74  86  74  85 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST SATURDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

11/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041846
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER CONVERGENCE ALOFT
WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...WITH SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WERE ALSO NOTED ACROSS SW PUERTO RICO...
BUT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MINIMAL SO FAR. WINDS WERE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER
CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND BELOW TO NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. HOWEVER...
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FROM
TIME TO TIME AS SURFACE HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA CONTINUES
TO PROMOTE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED...IF ANY...EACH DAY DUE TO A STRONG CAP AT 700-800MB.
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED NEXT WORKWEEK AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP COLLAPSES WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT IN PASSING SHRA
OVER THE USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS. NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED
BELOW FL250.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE CHOPPY TO ROUGH
CONDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MARINERS SHOULD EXPECTED SEAS OF 6-8 FEET AND WINDS OF 15-23 KT
WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  86  74  86 /  20  20  10  10
STT  74  86  74  85 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST SATURDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

11/23





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041338
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
938 AM AST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...SATELLITE AND RADAR OBS SHOWED FAST MOVING SHOWERS AFFECTING
THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. THE NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO
EXPERIENCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND HALF-INCH SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER
OF AN INCH. SATELLITE BLENDED PWAT ANALYSIS INDICATED A DRIER AIR
MASS JUST UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE FREQUENCY AND THE INTENSITY
OF THESE PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE MUCH LESS THE REST OF TODAY. AS A
RESULT...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN END OF PR AND THE MONA PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
NO CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF TODAY ACROSS THE
FLYING AREA. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN PASSING SHRA
OVER THE USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS. NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED
BELOW FL250.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE CHOPPY TO ROUGH CONDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MARINERS SHOULD
EXPECTED SEAS OF 6-8 FEET AND WINDS OF 15-21 KT WITH OCCASIONAL
WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM AST WED MAR 4 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION UNTIL
AT LEAST FRIDAY...WITH THE LOCAL ISLANDS IN THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE. STRONG
SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A MODERATE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES...MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS MOVED RELATIVELY QUICK
DUE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. DUE TO THE
RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS...THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE IN
GENERAL LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. FEW OF THESE SHOWERS ALSO
REACH THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.

STRONG SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. THEREFORE A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER...VERY SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADES WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
LIMITED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DURING
THE AFTERNOONS.

GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DRIER AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS DRY WEATHER IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG TRADES
ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FIRE HAZARDS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ST CROIX AND SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SLOPES
OF PUERTO RICO. STAY TUNED.

AVIATION...TIL 04/14Z...CLUSTERS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS...
SCT-BKN030...SCT-BKN060...MOV WSW IN THE STRONG NE TRADE WIND FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR IN LOW CIG AND ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/SHRA VCTY
TNCM/TKPK...AS WELL AS TJSJ/TJNR/TIST AND VCTY.ALSO VCTY STX AND ERN
PR...WITH PARTIAL MTN TOP OBSCR DUE TO PASSING LOW CLD CIGS/VSBY IN
-SHRA/SHRA. WINDS ALOFT FM NE 10-25 KT BLO FL200... BCMG FM N AND
INCR W/HT TO MAX WND ARND 45 KTS NR FL400. MOST CLDS BLO FL090...
FEW TOPS TO FL100.SFC WND AT TAF SITES FM ENE AT 10-15 KTS OCNL
HIGHER GUSTS BTW 25-30 KTS PSBL MAINLY W/PASSING SHRA.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION BUT
WINDS OF OVER 20 KTS AND REACHING 23-24 KTS SUSTAINED SHOULD NOT BE
RULED OUT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS UP TO 8 FEET ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

FIRE WEATHER...GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A GENERAL DRY AIR
MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS DRY WEATHER IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG
TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER DANGER
ESPECIALLY OVER ST CROIX AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  73  86  74 /  40  10  10  10
STT  86  73  86  74 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

11/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041338
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
938 AM AST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...SATELLITE AND RADAR OBS SHOWED FAST MOVING SHOWERS AFFECTING
THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. THE NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO
EXPERIENCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND HALF-INCH SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER
OF AN INCH. SATELLITE BLENDED PWAT ANALYSIS INDICATED A DRIER AIR
MASS JUST UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE FREQUENCY AND THE INTENSITY
OF THESE PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE MUCH LESS THE REST OF TODAY. AS A
RESULT...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN END OF PR AND THE MONA PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
NO CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF TODAY ACROSS THE
FLYING AREA. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN PASSING SHRA
OVER THE USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS. NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED
BELOW FL250.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE CHOPPY TO ROUGH CONDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MARINERS SHOULD
EXPECTED SEAS OF 6-8 FEET AND WINDS OF 15-21 KT WITH OCCASIONAL
WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM AST WED MAR 4 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION UNTIL
AT LEAST FRIDAY...WITH THE LOCAL ISLANDS IN THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE. STRONG
SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A MODERATE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES...MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS MOVED RELATIVELY QUICK
DUE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. DUE TO THE
RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS...THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE IN
GENERAL LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. FEW OF THESE SHOWERS ALSO
REACH THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.

STRONG SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. THEREFORE A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER...VERY SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADES WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
LIMITED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DURING
THE AFTERNOONS.

GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DRIER AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS DRY WEATHER IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG TRADES
ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FIRE HAZARDS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ST CROIX AND SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SLOPES
OF PUERTO RICO. STAY TUNED.

AVIATION...TIL 04/14Z...CLUSTERS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS...
SCT-BKN030...SCT-BKN060...MOV WSW IN THE STRONG NE TRADE WIND FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR IN LOW CIG AND ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/SHRA VCTY
TNCM/TKPK...AS WELL AS TJSJ/TJNR/TIST AND VCTY.ALSO VCTY STX AND ERN
PR...WITH PARTIAL MTN TOP OBSCR DUE TO PASSING LOW CLD CIGS/VSBY IN
-SHRA/SHRA. WINDS ALOFT FM NE 10-25 KT BLO FL200... BCMG FM N AND
INCR W/HT TO MAX WND ARND 45 KTS NR FL400. MOST CLDS BLO FL090...
FEW TOPS TO FL100.SFC WND AT TAF SITES FM ENE AT 10-15 KTS OCNL
HIGHER GUSTS BTW 25-30 KTS PSBL MAINLY W/PASSING SHRA.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION BUT
WINDS OF OVER 20 KTS AND REACHING 23-24 KTS SUSTAINED SHOULD NOT BE
RULED OUT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS UP TO 8 FEET ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

FIRE WEATHER...GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A GENERAL DRY AIR
MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS DRY WEATHER IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG
TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER DANGER
ESPECIALLY OVER ST CROIX AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  73  86  74 /  40  10  10  10
STT  86  73  86  74 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

11/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041338
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
938 AM AST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...SATELLITE AND RADAR OBS SHOWED FAST MOVING SHOWERS AFFECTING
THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. THE NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO
EXPERIENCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND HALF-INCH SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER
OF AN INCH. SATELLITE BLENDED PWAT ANALYSIS INDICATED A DRIER AIR
MASS JUST UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE FREQUENCY AND THE INTENSITY
OF THESE PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE MUCH LESS THE REST OF TODAY. AS A
RESULT...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN END OF PR AND THE MONA PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
NO CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF TODAY ACROSS THE
FLYING AREA. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN PASSING SHRA
OVER THE USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS. NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED
BELOW FL250.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE CHOPPY TO ROUGH CONDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MARINERS SHOULD
EXPECTED SEAS OF 6-8 FEET AND WINDS OF 15-21 KT WITH OCCASIONAL
WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM AST WED MAR 4 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION UNTIL
AT LEAST FRIDAY...WITH THE LOCAL ISLANDS IN THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE. STRONG
SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A MODERATE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES...MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS MOVED RELATIVELY QUICK
DUE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. DUE TO THE
RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS...THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE IN
GENERAL LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. FEW OF THESE SHOWERS ALSO
REACH THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.

STRONG SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. THEREFORE A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER...VERY SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADES WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
LIMITED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DURING
THE AFTERNOONS.

GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DRIER AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS DRY WEATHER IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG TRADES
ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FIRE HAZARDS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ST CROIX AND SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SLOPES
OF PUERTO RICO. STAY TUNED.

AVIATION...TIL 04/14Z...CLUSTERS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS...
SCT-BKN030...SCT-BKN060...MOV WSW IN THE STRONG NE TRADE WIND FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR IN LOW CIG AND ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/SHRA VCTY
TNCM/TKPK...AS WELL AS TJSJ/TJNR/TIST AND VCTY.ALSO VCTY STX AND ERN
PR...WITH PARTIAL MTN TOP OBSCR DUE TO PASSING LOW CLD CIGS/VSBY IN
-SHRA/SHRA. WINDS ALOFT FM NE 10-25 KT BLO FL200... BCMG FM N AND
INCR W/HT TO MAX WND ARND 45 KTS NR FL400. MOST CLDS BLO FL090...
FEW TOPS TO FL100.SFC WND AT TAF SITES FM ENE AT 10-15 KTS OCNL
HIGHER GUSTS BTW 25-30 KTS PSBL MAINLY W/PASSING SHRA.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION BUT
WINDS OF OVER 20 KTS AND REACHING 23-24 KTS SUSTAINED SHOULD NOT BE
RULED OUT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS UP TO 8 FEET ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

FIRE WEATHER...GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A GENERAL DRY AIR
MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS DRY WEATHER IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG
TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER DANGER
ESPECIALLY OVER ST CROIX AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  73  86  74 /  40  10  10  10
STT  86  73  86  74 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

11/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041338
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
938 AM AST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...SATELLITE AND RADAR OBS SHOWED FAST MOVING SHOWERS AFFECTING
THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. THE NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO
EXPERIENCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND HALF-INCH SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER
OF AN INCH. SATELLITE BLENDED PWAT ANALYSIS INDICATED A DRIER AIR
MASS JUST UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE FREQUENCY AND THE INTENSITY
OF THESE PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE MUCH LESS THE REST OF TODAY. AS A
RESULT...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN END OF PR AND THE MONA PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
NO CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF TODAY ACROSS THE
FLYING AREA. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN PASSING SHRA
OVER THE USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS. NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED
BELOW FL250.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE CHOPPY TO ROUGH CONDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MARINERS SHOULD
EXPECTED SEAS OF 6-8 FEET AND WINDS OF 15-21 KT WITH OCCASIONAL
WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM AST WED MAR 4 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION UNTIL
AT LEAST FRIDAY...WITH THE LOCAL ISLANDS IN THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE. STRONG
SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A MODERATE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES...MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS MOVED RELATIVELY QUICK
DUE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. DUE TO THE
RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS...THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE IN
GENERAL LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. FEW OF THESE SHOWERS ALSO
REACH THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.

STRONG SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. THEREFORE A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER...VERY SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADES WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
LIMITED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DURING
THE AFTERNOONS.

GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DRIER AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS DRY WEATHER IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG TRADES
ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FIRE HAZARDS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ST CROIX AND SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SLOPES
OF PUERTO RICO. STAY TUNED.

AVIATION...TIL 04/14Z...CLUSTERS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS...
SCT-BKN030...SCT-BKN060...MOV WSW IN THE STRONG NE TRADE WIND FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR IN LOW CIG AND ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/SHRA VCTY
TNCM/TKPK...AS WELL AS TJSJ/TJNR/TIST AND VCTY.ALSO VCTY STX AND ERN
PR...WITH PARTIAL MTN TOP OBSCR DUE TO PASSING LOW CLD CIGS/VSBY IN
-SHRA/SHRA. WINDS ALOFT FM NE 10-25 KT BLO FL200... BCMG FM N AND
INCR W/HT TO MAX WND ARND 45 KTS NR FL400. MOST CLDS BLO FL090...
FEW TOPS TO FL100.SFC WND AT TAF SITES FM ENE AT 10-15 KTS OCNL
HIGHER GUSTS BTW 25-30 KTS PSBL MAINLY W/PASSING SHRA.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION BUT
WINDS OF OVER 20 KTS AND REACHING 23-24 KTS SUSTAINED SHOULD NOT BE
RULED OUT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS UP TO 8 FEET ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

FIRE WEATHER...GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A GENERAL DRY AIR
MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS DRY WEATHER IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG
TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER DANGER
ESPECIALLY OVER ST CROIX AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  73  86  74 /  40  10  10  10
STT  86  73  86  74 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

11/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041338
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
938 AM AST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...SATELLITE AND RADAR OBS SHOWED FAST MOVING SHOWERS AFFECTING
THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. THE NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO
EXPERIENCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND HALF-INCH SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER
OF AN INCH. SATELLITE BLENDED PWAT ANALYSIS INDICATED A DRIER AIR
MASS JUST UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE FREQUENCY AND THE INTENSITY
OF THESE PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE MUCH LESS THE REST OF TODAY. AS A
RESULT...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN END OF PR AND THE MONA PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
NO CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF TODAY ACROSS THE
FLYING AREA. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN PASSING SHRA
OVER THE USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS. NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED
BELOW FL250.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE CHOPPY TO ROUGH CONDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MARINERS SHOULD
EXPECTED SEAS OF 6-8 FEET AND WINDS OF 15-21 KT WITH OCCASIONAL
WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM AST WED MAR 4 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION UNTIL
AT LEAST FRIDAY...WITH THE LOCAL ISLANDS IN THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE. STRONG
SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A MODERATE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES...MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS MOVED RELATIVELY QUICK
DUE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. DUE TO THE
RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS...THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE IN
GENERAL LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. FEW OF THESE SHOWERS ALSO
REACH THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.

STRONG SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. THEREFORE A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER...VERY SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADES WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
LIMITED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DURING
THE AFTERNOONS.

GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DRIER AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS DRY WEATHER IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG TRADES
ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FIRE HAZARDS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ST CROIX AND SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SLOPES
OF PUERTO RICO. STAY TUNED.

AVIATION...TIL 04/14Z...CLUSTERS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS...
SCT-BKN030...SCT-BKN060...MOV WSW IN THE STRONG NE TRADE WIND FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR IN LOW CIG AND ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/SHRA VCTY
TNCM/TKPK...AS WELL AS TJSJ/TJNR/TIST AND VCTY.ALSO VCTY STX AND ERN
PR...WITH PARTIAL MTN TOP OBSCR DUE TO PASSING LOW CLD CIGS/VSBY IN
-SHRA/SHRA. WINDS ALOFT FM NE 10-25 KT BLO FL200... BCMG FM N AND
INCR W/HT TO MAX WND ARND 45 KTS NR FL400. MOST CLDS BLO FL090...
FEW TOPS TO FL100.SFC WND AT TAF SITES FM ENE AT 10-15 KTS OCNL
HIGHER GUSTS BTW 25-30 KTS PSBL MAINLY W/PASSING SHRA.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION BUT
WINDS OF OVER 20 KTS AND REACHING 23-24 KTS SUSTAINED SHOULD NOT BE
RULED OUT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS UP TO 8 FEET ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

FIRE WEATHER...GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A GENERAL DRY AIR
MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS DRY WEATHER IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG
TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER DANGER
ESPECIALLY OVER ST CROIX AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  73  86  74 /  40  10  10  10
STT  86  73  86  74 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

11/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041338
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
938 AM AST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...SATELLITE AND RADAR OBS SHOWED FAST MOVING SHOWERS AFFECTING
THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. THE NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO
EXPERIENCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND HALF-INCH SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER
OF AN INCH. SATELLITE BLENDED PWAT ANALYSIS INDICATED A DRIER AIR
MASS JUST UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE FREQUENCY AND THE INTENSITY
OF THESE PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE MUCH LESS THE REST OF TODAY. AS A
RESULT...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN END OF PR AND THE MONA PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
NO CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF TODAY ACROSS THE
FLYING AREA. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN PASSING SHRA
OVER THE USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS. NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED
BELOW FL250.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE CHOPPY TO ROUGH CONDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MARINERS SHOULD
EXPECTED SEAS OF 6-8 FEET AND WINDS OF 15-21 KT WITH OCCASIONAL
WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM AST WED MAR 4 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION UNTIL
AT LEAST FRIDAY...WITH THE LOCAL ISLANDS IN THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE. STRONG
SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A MODERATE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES...MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS MOVED RELATIVELY QUICK
DUE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. DUE TO THE
RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS...THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE IN
GENERAL LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. FEW OF THESE SHOWERS ALSO
REACH THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.

STRONG SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. THEREFORE A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER...VERY SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADES WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
LIMITED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DURING
THE AFTERNOONS.

GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DRIER AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS DRY WEATHER IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG TRADES
ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FIRE HAZARDS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ST CROIX AND SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SLOPES
OF PUERTO RICO. STAY TUNED.

AVIATION...TIL 04/14Z...CLUSTERS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS...
SCT-BKN030...SCT-BKN060...MOV WSW IN THE STRONG NE TRADE WIND FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR IN LOW CIG AND ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/SHRA VCTY
TNCM/TKPK...AS WELL AS TJSJ/TJNR/TIST AND VCTY.ALSO VCTY STX AND ERN
PR...WITH PARTIAL MTN TOP OBSCR DUE TO PASSING LOW CLD CIGS/VSBY IN
-SHRA/SHRA. WINDS ALOFT FM NE 10-25 KT BLO FL200... BCMG FM N AND
INCR W/HT TO MAX WND ARND 45 KTS NR FL400. MOST CLDS BLO FL090...
FEW TOPS TO FL100.SFC WND AT TAF SITES FM ENE AT 10-15 KTS OCNL
HIGHER GUSTS BTW 25-30 KTS PSBL MAINLY W/PASSING SHRA.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION BUT
WINDS OF OVER 20 KTS AND REACHING 23-24 KTS SUSTAINED SHOULD NOT BE
RULED OUT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS UP TO 8 FEET ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

FIRE WEATHER...GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A GENERAL DRY AIR
MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS DRY WEATHER IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG
TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER DANGER
ESPECIALLY OVER ST CROIX AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  73  86  74 /  40  10  10  10
STT  86  73  86  74 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

11/23





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 040842
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
442 AM AST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION UNTIL
AT LEAST FRIDAY...WITH THE LOCAL ISLANDS IN THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE. STRONG
SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A MODERATE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES...MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS MOVED RELATIVELY QUICK
DUE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. DUE TO THE
RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS...THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE IN
GENERAL LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. FEW OF THESE SHOWERS ALSO
REACH THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.

STRONG SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. THEREFORE A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER...VERY SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADES WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
LIMITED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DURING
THE AFTERNOONS.

GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DRIER AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS DRY WEATHER IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG TRADES
ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FIRE HAZARDS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ST CROIX AND SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWSSTERN SLOPES
OF PUERTO RICO. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...TIL 04/14Z...CLUSTERS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS...
SCT-BKN030...SCT-BKN060...MOV WSW IN THE STRONG NE TRADE WIND FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR IN LOW CIG AND ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/SHRA VCTY
TNCM/TKPK...AS WELL AS TJSJ/TJNR/TIST AND VCTY.ALSO VCTY STX AND ERN
PR...WITH PARTIAL MTN TOP OBSCR DUE TO PASSING LOW CLD CIGS/VSBY IN
-SHRA/SHRA. WINDS ALOFT FM NE 10-25 KT BLO FL200... BCMG FM N AND
INCR W/HT TO MAX WND ARND 45 KTS NR FL400. MOST CLDS BLO FL090...
FEW TOPS TO FL100.SFC WND AT TAF SITES FM ENE AT 10-15 KTS OCNL
HIGHER GUSTS BTW 25-30 KTS PSBL MAINLY W/PASSING SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION BUT
WINDS OF OVER 20 KTS AND REACHING 23-24 KTS SUSTAINED SHOULD NOT BE
RULED OUT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS UP TO 8 FEET ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A GENERAL DRY AIR
MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS DRY WEATHER IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG
TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER DANGER
ESPECIALLY OVER ST CROIX AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  73  86  74 /  40  10  10  10
STT  86  73  86  74 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

09/72






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 040842
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
442 AM AST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION UNTIL
AT LEAST FRIDAY...WITH THE LOCAL ISLANDS IN THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE. STRONG
SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A MODERATE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES...MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS MOVED RELATIVELY QUICK
DUE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. DUE TO THE
RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS...THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE IN
GENERAL LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. FEW OF THESE SHOWERS ALSO
REACH THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.

STRONG SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. THEREFORE A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER...VERY SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADES WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
LIMITED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DURING
THE AFTERNOONS.

GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DRIER AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS DRY WEATHER IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG TRADES
ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FIRE HAZARDS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ST CROIX AND SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWSSTERN SLOPES
OF PUERTO RICO. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...TIL 04/14Z...CLUSTERS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS...
SCT-BKN030...SCT-BKN060...MOV WSW IN THE STRONG NE TRADE WIND FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR IN LOW CIG AND ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/SHRA VCTY
TNCM/TKPK...AS WELL AS TJSJ/TJNR/TIST AND VCTY.ALSO VCTY STX AND ERN
PR...WITH PARTIAL MTN TOP OBSCR DUE TO PASSING LOW CLD CIGS/VSBY IN
-SHRA/SHRA. WINDS ALOFT FM NE 10-25 KT BLO FL200... BCMG FM N AND
INCR W/HT TO MAX WND ARND 45 KTS NR FL400. MOST CLDS BLO FL090...
FEW TOPS TO FL100.SFC WND AT TAF SITES FM ENE AT 10-15 KTS OCNL
HIGHER GUSTS BTW 25-30 KTS PSBL MAINLY W/PASSING SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION BUT
WINDS OF OVER 20 KTS AND REACHING 23-24 KTS SUSTAINED SHOULD NOT BE
RULED OUT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS UP TO 8 FEET ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A GENERAL DRY AIR
MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS DRY WEATHER IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG
TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER DANGER
ESPECIALLY OVER ST CROIX AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  73  86  74 /  40  10  10  10
STT  86  73  86  74 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

09/72





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 040842
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
442 AM AST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION UNTIL
AT LEAST FRIDAY...WITH THE LOCAL ISLANDS IN THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE. STRONG
SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A MODERATE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES...MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS MOVED RELATIVELY QUICK
DUE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. DUE TO THE
RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS...THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE IN
GENERAL LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. FEW OF THESE SHOWERS ALSO
REACH THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.

STRONG SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. THEREFORE A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER...VERY SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADES WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
LIMITED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DURING
THE AFTERNOONS.

GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DRIER AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS DRY WEATHER IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG TRADES
ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FIRE HAZARDS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ST CROIX AND SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWSSTERN SLOPES
OF PUERTO RICO. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...TIL 04/14Z...CLUSTERS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS...
SCT-BKN030...SCT-BKN060...MOV WSW IN THE STRONG NE TRADE WIND FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR IN LOW CIG AND ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/SHRA VCTY
TNCM/TKPK...AS WELL AS TJSJ/TJNR/TIST AND VCTY.ALSO VCTY STX AND ERN
PR...WITH PARTIAL MTN TOP OBSCR DUE TO PASSING LOW CLD CIGS/VSBY IN
-SHRA/SHRA. WINDS ALOFT FM NE 10-25 KT BLO FL200... BCMG FM N AND
INCR W/HT TO MAX WND ARND 45 KTS NR FL400. MOST CLDS BLO FL090...
FEW TOPS TO FL100.SFC WND AT TAF SITES FM ENE AT 10-15 KTS OCNL
HIGHER GUSTS BTW 25-30 KTS PSBL MAINLY W/PASSING SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION BUT
WINDS OF OVER 20 KTS AND REACHING 23-24 KTS SUSTAINED SHOULD NOT BE
RULED OUT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS UP TO 8 FEET ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A GENERAL DRY AIR
MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS DRY WEATHER IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG
TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER DANGER
ESPECIALLY OVER ST CROIX AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  73  86  74 /  40  10  10  10
STT  86  73  86  74 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

09/72






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 040842
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
442 AM AST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION UNTIL
AT LEAST FRIDAY...WITH THE LOCAL ISLANDS IN THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE. STRONG
SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A MODERATE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES...MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS MOVED RELATIVELY QUICK
DUE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. DUE TO THE
RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS...THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE IN
GENERAL LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. FEW OF THESE SHOWERS ALSO
REACH THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.

STRONG SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. THEREFORE A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER...VERY SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADES WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
LIMITED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DURING
THE AFTERNOONS.

GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DRIER AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS DRY WEATHER IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG TRADES
ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FIRE HAZARDS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ST CROIX AND SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWSSTERN SLOPES
OF PUERTO RICO. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...TIL 04/14Z...CLUSTERS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS...
SCT-BKN030...SCT-BKN060...MOV WSW IN THE STRONG NE TRADE WIND FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR IN LOW CIG AND ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/SHRA VCTY
TNCM/TKPK...AS WELL AS TJSJ/TJNR/TIST AND VCTY.ALSO VCTY STX AND ERN
PR...WITH PARTIAL MTN TOP OBSCR DUE TO PASSING LOW CLD CIGS/VSBY IN
-SHRA/SHRA. WINDS ALOFT FM NE 10-25 KT BLO FL200... BCMG FM N AND
INCR W/HT TO MAX WND ARND 45 KTS NR FL400. MOST CLDS BLO FL090...
FEW TOPS TO FL100.SFC WND AT TAF SITES FM ENE AT 10-15 KTS OCNL
HIGHER GUSTS BTW 25-30 KTS PSBL MAINLY W/PASSING SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION BUT
WINDS OF OVER 20 KTS AND REACHING 23-24 KTS SUSTAINED SHOULD NOT BE
RULED OUT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS UP TO 8 FEET ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A GENERAL DRY AIR
MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS DRY WEATHER IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG
TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER DANGER
ESPECIALLY OVER ST CROIX AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  73  86  74 /  40  10  10  10
STT  86  73  86  74 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

09/72





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 040321 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1120 PM AST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS AFFECTED SOUTHWESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...LEAVING SOME AREAS WITH ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN
IN PORTIONS OF CABO ROJO...WHILE THE REST OF THE SURROUNDING AREA
HAD HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN. OTHERWISE THE
REST OF PR AND THE USVI WERE FAIRLY DRY UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS
WHEN SHOWERS STARTED MOVING IN...LEAVING HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN SO FAR TONIGHT. AS FAR AS THE WEATHER FORECAST GOES NO
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND INHERITED FORECAST. BRIEF SHOWERS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE AREA OF HIGHEST SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR. HOWEVER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS KEEPING THE
MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE LOWER LEVELS...SO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND BRIEF AS THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING
RELATIVELY QUICK DUE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CAUSING BREEZE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...A PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVING IN STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW IS
BRINGING BRIEF MVFR TO THE TNCM/TKPK...USVI AND ERN PR WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS. DRYING AND CLEARING EXPECTED BTWN 04/06Z TO 04/15Z
FROM EAST TO WEST WITH LTD SHRA OVER SWRN PR AFT 04/18Z. WINDS ALF
NE 10 TO 25 KT BLO FL200. TOP OF MOIST LAYER ARND FL095 BUT OCNL
TOPS TO FL160 TIL 04/15Z.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION
BUT WINDS OF OVER 20 KTS AND REACHING 23-24 KTS SUSTAINED SHOULD
NOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS UP TO 8 FEET ARE
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN MAY
POSE A THREAT FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. LATEST
OBSERVATION OF 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE IS INDICATING THAT THE FUEL MOISTURE
IN GUANICA AND SALINAS...PER THE DATA VALID FOR MONDAY...IS AT 10
PERCENT OR LESS. DUE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...CAUSING BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE DRY AIR MOVING
IN...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ACROSS SOUTHERN PR DROP TO THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM AST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL BE IN THE SUBSIDENCE
AREA. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVES OVER THE AREA
DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLANTIC...WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

DISCUSSION...
GOES SOUNDER IMAGES AND LOCAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS PATTERN WILL INHIBIT
STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND
DURING THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH AND LOCALLY STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW THAT WILL STEER PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

MODEL GUIDANCE ARE WELL INITIALIZE AND AND CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
DRIER AND STABLE CONDITIONS AFTER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...BRIEF INTERVALS OF PASSING LATE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOSTLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO STILL POSSIBLE. FOR MOST
OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
EACH DAY...BUT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS SW PR MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR
CONDS IN AND AROUND JPS/JMZ TIL 22Z. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20
KNOTS BECOMING 5 TO 10 OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ACROSS MOST
OF THE SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK DUE TO THE FAIRLY
STRONG AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATER
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  84  74  86 /  30  30  10  10
STT  73  85  74  86 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST FRIDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM AST THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

12/25






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 040321 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1120 PM AST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS AFFECTED SOUTHWESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...LEAVING SOME AREAS WITH ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN
IN PORTIONS OF CABO ROJO...WHILE THE REST OF THE SURROUNDING AREA
HAD HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN. OTHERWISE THE
REST OF PR AND THE USVI WERE FAIRLY DRY UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS
WHEN SHOWERS STARTED MOVING IN...LEAVING HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN SO FAR TONIGHT. AS FAR AS THE WEATHER FORECAST GOES NO
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND INHERITED FORECAST. BRIEF SHOWERS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE AREA OF HIGHEST SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR. HOWEVER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS KEEPING THE
MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE LOWER LEVELS...SO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND BRIEF AS THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING
RELATIVELY QUICK DUE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CAUSING BREEZE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...A PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVING IN STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW IS
BRINGING BRIEF MVFR TO THE TNCM/TKPK...USVI AND ERN PR WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS. DRYING AND CLEARING EXPECTED BTWN 04/06Z TO 04/15Z
FROM EAST TO WEST WITH LTD SHRA OVER SWRN PR AFT 04/18Z. WINDS ALF
NE 10 TO 25 KT BLO FL200. TOP OF MOIST LAYER ARND FL095 BUT OCNL
TOPS TO FL160 TIL 04/15Z.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION
BUT WINDS OF OVER 20 KTS AND REACHING 23-24 KTS SUSTAINED SHOULD
NOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS UP TO 8 FEET ARE
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN MAY
POSE A THREAT FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. LATEST
OBSERVATION OF 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE IS INDICATING THAT THE FUEL MOISTURE
IN GUANICA AND SALINAS...PER THE DATA VALID FOR MONDAY...IS AT 10
PERCENT OR LESS. DUE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...CAUSING BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE DRY AIR MOVING
IN...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ACROSS SOUTHERN PR DROP TO THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM AST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL BE IN THE SUBSIDENCE
AREA. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVES OVER THE AREA
DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLANTIC...WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

DISCUSSION...
GOES SOUNDER IMAGES AND LOCAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS PATTERN WILL INHIBIT
STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND
DURING THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH AND LOCALLY STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW THAT WILL STEER PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

MODEL GUIDANCE ARE WELL INITIALIZE AND AND CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
DRIER AND STABLE CONDITIONS AFTER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...BRIEF INTERVALS OF PASSING LATE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOSTLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO STILL POSSIBLE. FOR MOST
OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
EACH DAY...BUT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS SW PR MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR
CONDS IN AND AROUND JPS/JMZ TIL 22Z. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20
KNOTS BECOMING 5 TO 10 OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ACROSS MOST
OF THE SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK DUE TO THE FAIRLY
STRONG AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATER
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  84  74  86 /  30  30  10  10
STT  73  85  74  86 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST FRIDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM AST THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

12/25






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 040321 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1120 PM AST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS AFFECTED SOUTHWESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...LEAVING SOME AREAS WITH ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN
IN PORTIONS OF CABO ROJO...WHILE THE REST OF THE SURROUNDING AREA
HAD HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN. OTHERWISE THE
REST OF PR AND THE USVI WERE FAIRLY DRY UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS
WHEN SHOWERS STARTED MOVING IN...LEAVING HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN SO FAR TONIGHT. AS FAR AS THE WEATHER FORECAST GOES NO
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND INHERITED FORECAST. BRIEF SHOWERS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE AREA OF HIGHEST SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR. HOWEVER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS KEEPING THE
MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE LOWER LEVELS...SO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND BRIEF AS THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING
RELATIVELY QUICK DUE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CAUSING BREEZE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...A PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVING IN STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW IS
BRINGING BRIEF MVFR TO THE TNCM/TKPK...USVI AND ERN PR WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS. DRYING AND CLEARING EXPECTED BTWN 04/06Z TO 04/15Z
FROM EAST TO WEST WITH LTD SHRA OVER SWRN PR AFT 04/18Z. WINDS ALF
NE 10 TO 25 KT BLO FL200. TOP OF MOIST LAYER ARND FL095 BUT OCNL
TOPS TO FL160 TIL 04/15Z.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION
BUT WINDS OF OVER 20 KTS AND REACHING 23-24 KTS SUSTAINED SHOULD
NOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS UP TO 8 FEET ARE
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN MAY
POSE A THREAT FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. LATEST
OBSERVATION OF 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE IS INDICATING THAT THE FUEL MOISTURE
IN GUANICA AND SALINAS...PER THE DATA VALID FOR MONDAY...IS AT 10
PERCENT OR LESS. DUE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...CAUSING BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE DRY AIR MOVING
IN...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ACROSS SOUTHERN PR DROP TO THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM AST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL BE IN THE SUBSIDENCE
AREA. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVES OVER THE AREA
DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLANTIC...WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

DISCUSSION...
GOES SOUNDER IMAGES AND LOCAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS PATTERN WILL INHIBIT
STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND
DURING THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH AND LOCALLY STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW THAT WILL STEER PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

MODEL GUIDANCE ARE WELL INITIALIZE AND AND CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
DRIER AND STABLE CONDITIONS AFTER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...BRIEF INTERVALS OF PASSING LATE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOSTLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO STILL POSSIBLE. FOR MOST
OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
EACH DAY...BUT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS SW PR MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR
CONDS IN AND AROUND JPS/JMZ TIL 22Z. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20
KNOTS BECOMING 5 TO 10 OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ACROSS MOST
OF THE SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK DUE TO THE FAIRLY
STRONG AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATER
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  84  74  86 /  30  30  10  10
STT  73  85  74  86 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST FRIDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM AST THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

12/25






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 040321 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1120 PM AST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS AFFECTED SOUTHWESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...LEAVING SOME AREAS WITH ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN
IN PORTIONS OF CABO ROJO...WHILE THE REST OF THE SURROUNDING AREA
HAD HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN. OTHERWISE THE
REST OF PR AND THE USVI WERE FAIRLY DRY UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS
WHEN SHOWERS STARTED MOVING IN...LEAVING HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN SO FAR TONIGHT. AS FAR AS THE WEATHER FORECAST GOES NO
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND INHERITED FORECAST. BRIEF SHOWERS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE AREA OF HIGHEST SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR. HOWEVER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS KEEPING THE
MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE LOWER LEVELS...SO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND BRIEF AS THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING
RELATIVELY QUICK DUE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CAUSING BREEZE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...A PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVING IN STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW IS
BRINGING BRIEF MVFR TO THE TNCM/TKPK...USVI AND ERN PR WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS. DRYING AND CLEARING EXPECTED BTWN 04/06Z TO 04/15Z
FROM EAST TO WEST WITH LTD SHRA OVER SWRN PR AFT 04/18Z. WINDS ALF
NE 10 TO 25 KT BLO FL200. TOP OF MOIST LAYER ARND FL095 BUT OCNL
TOPS TO FL160 TIL 04/15Z.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION
BUT WINDS OF OVER 20 KTS AND REACHING 23-24 KTS SUSTAINED SHOULD
NOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS UP TO 8 FEET ARE
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN MAY
POSE A THREAT FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. LATEST
OBSERVATION OF 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE IS INDICATING THAT THE FUEL MOISTURE
IN GUANICA AND SALINAS...PER THE DATA VALID FOR MONDAY...IS AT 10
PERCENT OR LESS. DUE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...CAUSING BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE DRY AIR MOVING
IN...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ACROSS SOUTHERN PR DROP TO THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM AST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL BE IN THE SUBSIDENCE
AREA. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVES OVER THE AREA
DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLANTIC...WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

DISCUSSION...
GOES SOUNDER IMAGES AND LOCAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS PATTERN WILL INHIBIT
STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND
DURING THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH AND LOCALLY STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW THAT WILL STEER PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

MODEL GUIDANCE ARE WELL INITIALIZE AND AND CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
DRIER AND STABLE CONDITIONS AFTER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...BRIEF INTERVALS OF PASSING LATE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOSTLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO STILL POSSIBLE. FOR MOST
OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
EACH DAY...BUT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS SW PR MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR
CONDS IN AND AROUND JPS/JMZ TIL 22Z. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20
KNOTS BECOMING 5 TO 10 OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ACROSS MOST
OF THE SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK DUE TO THE FAIRLY
STRONG AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATER
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  84  74  86 /  30  30  10  10
STT  73  85  74  86 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST FRIDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM AST THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

12/25






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 040321 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1120 PM AST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS AFFECTED SOUTHWESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...LEAVING SOME AREAS WITH ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN
IN PORTIONS OF CABO ROJO...WHILE THE REST OF THE SURROUNDING AREA
HAD HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN. OTHERWISE THE
REST OF PR AND THE USVI WERE FAIRLY DRY UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS
WHEN SHOWERS STARTED MOVING IN...LEAVING HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN SO FAR TONIGHT. AS FAR AS THE WEATHER FORECAST GOES NO
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND INHERITED FORECAST. BRIEF SHOWERS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE AREA OF HIGHEST SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR. HOWEVER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS KEEPING THE
MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE LOWER LEVELS...SO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND BRIEF AS THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING
RELATIVELY QUICK DUE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CAUSING BREEZE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...A PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVING IN STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW IS
BRINGING BRIEF MVFR TO THE TNCM/TKPK...USVI AND ERN PR WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS. DRYING AND CLEARING EXPECTED BTWN 04/06Z TO 04/15Z
FROM EAST TO WEST WITH LTD SHRA OVER SWRN PR AFT 04/18Z. WINDS ALF
NE 10 TO 25 KT BLO FL200. TOP OF MOIST LAYER ARND FL095 BUT OCNL
TOPS TO FL160 TIL 04/15Z.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION
BUT WINDS OF OVER 20 KTS AND REACHING 23-24 KTS SUSTAINED SHOULD
NOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS UP TO 8 FEET ARE
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN MAY
POSE A THREAT FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. LATEST
OBSERVATION OF 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE IS INDICATING THAT THE FUEL MOISTURE
IN GUANICA AND SALINAS...PER THE DATA VALID FOR MONDAY...IS AT 10
PERCENT OR LESS. DUE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...CAUSING BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE DRY AIR MOVING
IN...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ACROSS SOUTHERN PR DROP TO THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM AST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL BE IN THE SUBSIDENCE
AREA. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVES OVER THE AREA
DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLANTIC...WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

DISCUSSION...
GOES SOUNDER IMAGES AND LOCAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS PATTERN WILL INHIBIT
STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND
DURING THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH AND LOCALLY STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW THAT WILL STEER PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

MODEL GUIDANCE ARE WELL INITIALIZE AND AND CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
DRIER AND STABLE CONDITIONS AFTER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...BRIEF INTERVALS OF PASSING LATE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOSTLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO STILL POSSIBLE. FOR MOST
OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
EACH DAY...BUT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS SW PR MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR
CONDS IN AND AROUND JPS/JMZ TIL 22Z. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20
KNOTS BECOMING 5 TO 10 OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ACROSS MOST
OF THE SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK DUE TO THE FAIRLY
STRONG AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATER
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  84  74  86 /  30  30  10  10
STT  73  85  74  86 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST FRIDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM AST THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

12/25






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 040321 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1120 PM AST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS AFFECTED SOUTHWESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...LEAVING SOME AREAS WITH ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN
IN PORTIONS OF CABO ROJO...WHILE THE REST OF THE SURROUNDING AREA
HAD HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN. OTHERWISE THE
REST OF PR AND THE USVI WERE FAIRLY DRY UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS
WHEN SHOWERS STARTED MOVING IN...LEAVING HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN SO FAR TONIGHT. AS FAR AS THE WEATHER FORECAST GOES NO
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND INHERITED FORECAST. BRIEF SHOWERS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE AREA OF HIGHEST SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR. HOWEVER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS KEEPING THE
MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE LOWER LEVELS...SO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND BRIEF AS THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING
RELATIVELY QUICK DUE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CAUSING BREEZE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...A PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVING IN STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW IS
BRINGING BRIEF MVFR TO THE TNCM/TKPK...USVI AND ERN PR WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS. DRYING AND CLEARING EXPECTED BTWN 04/06Z TO 04/15Z
FROM EAST TO WEST WITH LTD SHRA OVER SWRN PR AFT 04/18Z. WINDS ALF
NE 10 TO 25 KT BLO FL200. TOP OF MOIST LAYER ARND FL095 BUT OCNL
TOPS TO FL160 TIL 04/15Z.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION
BUT WINDS OF OVER 20 KTS AND REACHING 23-24 KTS SUSTAINED SHOULD
NOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS UP TO 8 FEET ARE
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN MAY
POSE A THREAT FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. LATEST
OBSERVATION OF 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE IS INDICATING THAT THE FUEL MOISTURE
IN GUANICA AND SALINAS...PER THE DATA VALID FOR MONDAY...IS AT 10
PERCENT OR LESS. DUE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...CAUSING BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE DRY AIR MOVING
IN...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ACROSS SOUTHERN PR DROP TO THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM AST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL BE IN THE SUBSIDENCE
AREA. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVES OVER THE AREA
DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLANTIC...WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

DISCUSSION...
GOES SOUNDER IMAGES AND LOCAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS PATTERN WILL INHIBIT
STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND
DURING THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH AND LOCALLY STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW THAT WILL STEER PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

MODEL GUIDANCE ARE WELL INITIALIZE AND AND CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
DRIER AND STABLE CONDITIONS AFTER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...BRIEF INTERVALS OF PASSING LATE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOSTLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO STILL POSSIBLE. FOR MOST
OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
EACH DAY...BUT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS SW PR MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR
CONDS IN AND AROUND JPS/JMZ TIL 22Z. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20
KNOTS BECOMING 5 TO 10 OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ACROSS MOST
OF THE SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK DUE TO THE FAIRLY
STRONG AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATER
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  84  74  86 /  30  30  10  10
STT  73  85  74  86 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST FRIDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM AST THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

12/25





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 040254
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1054 PM AST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS AFFECTED SOUTHWESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...LEAVING SOME AREAS WITH ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN
IN PORTIONS OF CABO ROJO...WHILE THE REST OF THE SURROUNDING AREA
HAD HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN. OTHERWISE THE
REST OF PR AND THE USVI WERE FAIRLY DRY UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS
WHEN SHOWERS STARTED MOVING IN...LEAVING HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN SO FAR TONIGHT. AS FAR AS THE WEATHER FORECAST GOES NO
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND INHERITED FORECAST. BRIEF SHOWERS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE AREA OF HIGHEST SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR. HOWEVER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS KEEPING THE
MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE LOWER LEVELS...SO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND BRIEF AS THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING
RELATIVELY QUICK DUE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CAUSING BREEZE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...A PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVING IN STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW IS
BRINGING BRIEF MVFR TO THE TNCM/TKPK...USVI AND ERN PR WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS. DRYING AND CLEARING EXPECTED BTWN 04/06Z TO 04/15Z
FROM EAST TO WEST WITH LTD SHRA OVER SWRN PR AFT 04/18Z. WINDS ALF
NE 10 TO 25 KT BLO FL200. TOP OF MOIST LAYER ARND FL095 BUT OCNL
TOPS TO FL160 TIL 04/15Z.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION
BUT WINDS OF OVER 20 KTS AND REACHING 23-24 KTS SUSTAINED SHOULD
NOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS UP TO 8 FEET ARE
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN MAY
POSE A THREAT FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. LATEST
OBSERVATION OF SOIL MOISTURE IS INDICATING THAT THE SOIL MOISTURE
IN GUANICA AND SALINAS...PER THE DATA VALID FOR MONDAY...IS AT 10
PERCENT OR LESS. DUE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...CAUSING BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE DRY AIR
MOVING IN...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ACROSS SOUTHERN PR DROP TO THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM AST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL BE IN THE SUBSIDENCE
AREA. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVES OVER THE AREA
DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLANTIC...WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

DISCUSSION...
GOES SOUNDER IMAGES AND LOCAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS PATTERN WILL INHIBIT
STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND
DURING THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH AND LOCALLY STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW THAT WILL STEER PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

MODEL GUIDANCE ARE WELL INITIALIZE AND AND CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
DRIER AND STABLE CONDITIONS AFTER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...BRIEF INTERVALS OF PASSING LATE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOSTLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO STILL POSSIBLE. FOR MOST
OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
EACH DAY...BUT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS SW PR MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR
CONDS IN AND AROUND JPS/JMZ TIL 22Z. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20
KNOTS BECOMING 5 TO 10 OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ACROSS MOST
OF THE SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK DUE TO THE FAIRLY
STRONG AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATER
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  84  74  86 /  30  30  10  10
STT  73  85  74  86 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST FRIDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM AST THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

12/25








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 040254
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1054 PM AST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS AFFECTED SOUTHWESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...LEAVING SOME AREAS WITH ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN
IN PORTIONS OF CABO ROJO...WHILE THE REST OF THE SURROUNDING AREA
HAD HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN. OTHERWISE THE
REST OF PR AND THE USVI WERE FAIRLY DRY UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS
WHEN SHOWERS STARTED MOVING IN...LEAVING HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN SO FAR TONIGHT. AS FAR AS THE WEATHER FORECAST GOES NO
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND INHERITED FORECAST. BRIEF SHOWERS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE AREA OF HIGHEST SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR. HOWEVER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS KEEPING THE
MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE LOWER LEVELS...SO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND BRIEF AS THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING
RELATIVELY QUICK DUE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CAUSING BREEZE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...A PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVING IN STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW IS
BRINGING BRIEF MVFR TO THE TNCM/TKPK...USVI AND ERN PR WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS. DRYING AND CLEARING EXPECTED BTWN 04/06Z TO 04/15Z
FROM EAST TO WEST WITH LTD SHRA OVER SWRN PR AFT 04/18Z. WINDS ALF
NE 10 TO 25 KT BLO FL200. TOP OF MOIST LAYER ARND FL095 BUT OCNL
TOPS TO FL160 TIL 04/15Z.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION
BUT WINDS OF OVER 20 KTS AND REACHING 23-24 KTS SUSTAINED SHOULD
NOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS UP TO 8 FEET ARE
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN MAY
POSE A THREAT FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. LATEST
OBSERVATION OF SOIL MOISTURE IS INDICATING THAT THE SOIL MOISTURE
IN GUANICA AND SALINAS...PER THE DATA VALID FOR MONDAY...IS AT 10
PERCENT OR LESS. DUE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...CAUSING BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE DRY AIR
MOVING IN...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ACROSS SOUTHERN PR DROP TO THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM AST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL BE IN THE SUBSIDENCE
AREA. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVES OVER THE AREA
DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLANTIC...WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

DISCUSSION...
GOES SOUNDER IMAGES AND LOCAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS PATTERN WILL INHIBIT
STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND
DURING THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH AND LOCALLY STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW THAT WILL STEER PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

MODEL GUIDANCE ARE WELL INITIALIZE AND AND CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
DRIER AND STABLE CONDITIONS AFTER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...BRIEF INTERVALS OF PASSING LATE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOSTLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO STILL POSSIBLE. FOR MOST
OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
EACH DAY...BUT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS SW PR MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR
CONDS IN AND AROUND JPS/JMZ TIL 22Z. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20
KNOTS BECOMING 5 TO 10 OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ACROSS MOST
OF THE SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK DUE TO THE FAIRLY
STRONG AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATER
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  84  74  86 /  30  30  10  10
STT  73  85  74  86 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST FRIDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM AST THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

12/25








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 040254
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1054 PM AST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS AFFECTED SOUTHWESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...LEAVING SOME AREAS WITH ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN
IN PORTIONS OF CABO ROJO...WHILE THE REST OF THE SURROUNDING AREA
HAD HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN. OTHERWISE THE
REST OF PR AND THE USVI WERE FAIRLY DRY UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS
WHEN SHOWERS STARTED MOVING IN...LEAVING HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN SO FAR TONIGHT. AS FAR AS THE WEATHER FORECAST GOES NO
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND INHERITED FORECAST. BRIEF SHOWERS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE AREA OF HIGHEST SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR. HOWEVER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS KEEPING THE
MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE LOWER LEVELS...SO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND BRIEF AS THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING
RELATIVELY QUICK DUE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CAUSING BREEZE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...A PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVING IN STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW IS
BRINGING BRIEF MVFR TO THE TNCM/TKPK...USVI AND ERN PR WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS. DRYING AND CLEARING EXPECTED BTWN 04/06Z TO 04/15Z
FROM EAST TO WEST WITH LTD SHRA OVER SWRN PR AFT 04/18Z. WINDS ALF
NE 10 TO 25 KT BLO FL200. TOP OF MOIST LAYER ARND FL095 BUT OCNL
TOPS TO FL160 TIL 04/15Z.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION
BUT WINDS OF OVER 20 KTS AND REACHING 23-24 KTS SUSTAINED SHOULD
NOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS UP TO 8 FEET ARE
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN MAY
POSE A THREAT FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. LATEST
OBSERVATION OF SOIL MOISTURE IS INDICATING THAT THE SOIL MOISTURE
IN GUANICA AND SALINAS...PER THE DATA VALID FOR MONDAY...IS AT 10
PERCENT OR LESS. DUE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...CAUSING BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE DRY AIR
MOVING IN...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ACROSS SOUTHERN PR DROP TO THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM AST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL BE IN THE SUBSIDENCE
AREA. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVES OVER THE AREA
DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLANTIC...WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

DISCUSSION...
GOES SOUNDER IMAGES AND LOCAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS PATTERN WILL INHIBIT
STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND
DURING THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH AND LOCALLY STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW THAT WILL STEER PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

MODEL GUIDANCE ARE WELL INITIALIZE AND AND CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
DRIER AND STABLE CONDITIONS AFTER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...BRIEF INTERVALS OF PASSING LATE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOSTLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO STILL POSSIBLE. FOR MOST
OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
EACH DAY...BUT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS SW PR MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR
CONDS IN AND AROUND JPS/JMZ TIL 22Z. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20
KNOTS BECOMING 5 TO 10 OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ACROSS MOST
OF THE SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK DUE TO THE FAIRLY
STRONG AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATER
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  84  74  86 /  30  30  10  10
STT  73  85  74  86 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST FRIDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM AST THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

12/25








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 040254
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1054 PM AST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS AFFECTED SOUTHWESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...LEAVING SOME AREAS WITH ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN
IN PORTIONS OF CABO ROJO...WHILE THE REST OF THE SURROUNDING AREA
HAD HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN. OTHERWISE THE
REST OF PR AND THE USVI WERE FAIRLY DRY UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS
WHEN SHOWERS STARTED MOVING IN...LEAVING HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN SO FAR TONIGHT. AS FAR AS THE WEATHER FORECAST GOES NO
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND INHERITED FORECAST. BRIEF SHOWERS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE AREA OF HIGHEST SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR. HOWEVER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS KEEPING THE
MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE LOWER LEVELS...SO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND BRIEF AS THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING
RELATIVELY QUICK DUE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CAUSING BREEZE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...A PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVING IN STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW IS
BRINGING BRIEF MVFR TO THE TNCM/TKPK...USVI AND ERN PR WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS. DRYING AND CLEARING EXPECTED BTWN 04/06Z TO 04/15Z
FROM EAST TO WEST WITH LTD SHRA OVER SWRN PR AFT 04/18Z. WINDS ALF
NE 10 TO 25 KT BLO FL200. TOP OF MOIST LAYER ARND FL095 BUT OCNL
TOPS TO FL160 TIL 04/15Z.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION
BUT WINDS OF OVER 20 KTS AND REACHING 23-24 KTS SUSTAINED SHOULD
NOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS UP TO 8 FEET ARE
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN MAY
POSE A THREAT FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. LATEST
OBSERVATION OF SOIL MOISTURE IS INDICATING THAT THE SOIL MOISTURE
IN GUANICA AND SALINAS...PER THE DATA VALID FOR MONDAY...IS AT 10
PERCENT OR LESS. DUE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...CAUSING BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE DRY AIR
MOVING IN...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ACROSS SOUTHERN PR DROP TO THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM AST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL BE IN THE SUBSIDENCE
AREA. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVES OVER THE AREA
DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLANTIC...WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

DISCUSSION...
GOES SOUNDER IMAGES AND LOCAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS PATTERN WILL INHIBIT
STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND
DURING THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH AND LOCALLY STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW THAT WILL STEER PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

MODEL GUIDANCE ARE WELL INITIALIZE AND AND CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
DRIER AND STABLE CONDITIONS AFTER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...BRIEF INTERVALS OF PASSING LATE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOSTLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO STILL POSSIBLE. FOR MOST
OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
EACH DAY...BUT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS SW PR MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR
CONDS IN AND AROUND JPS/JMZ TIL 22Z. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20
KNOTS BECOMING 5 TO 10 OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ACROSS MOST
OF THE SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK DUE TO THE FAIRLY
STRONG AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATER
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  84  74  86 /  30  30  10  10
STT  73  85  74  86 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST FRIDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM AST THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

12/25








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