[top]
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 191909
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IS RAPIDLY DRAWING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND...SO FAR...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
GOING TOO. A LARGE BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE CARIBBEAN
SOUTH OF USVI AT 15N TO 17N AND IT IS WRAPPING INTO ST. CROIX AND
TO CULEBRA. BUT NONE OF THESE ARE LIKELY TO MOVE TOWARDS PR SOON
SO AM NOT SURE ABOUT CARRYING VERY MANY SHOWERS INTO EVE. ONSHORE
FLOW MAY REGENERATE SOME SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHEAST PR
SLOPES IN NEXT FEW HOURS...AND IT CURRENTLY SHOWS A LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR THAT.
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR 15N/65.5W IS HANDLED BY
THE GFS AS A WEAK REMNANT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH MOVES
NORTHWEST. GFS GOES A LITTLE NUTS OVER IT AS IT ENCOUNTERS GOOD
250 MB DIVERGENCE TONIGHT. THE RESULTING COVERGENCE AT 700 MB AND
DIVERGENCE AT 250 MB...ESPECIALLY AT THU/12Z SOUTH OF PR AT 16.6N
LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND WILL NOT BITE. SO AM DISMISSING
THIS AS GFS SHOWS IT MOVING OVER THE ISLAND ON THU. CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY DOES NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT SINCE STRONG DRY
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AS THE MOIST PLUME CONTINUES MOVING WEST AT
25 KNOTS...HAVING REACHED ANTILLES ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA GRDLLY DECR BUT THREAT OF MVFR/IFR STILL
POSBL. MOISTURE TO DROP OFF DURING THU DAYTIME. WIND BLO FL100
MAINLY SOUTHEAST 15-25 KT.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THU BUT
GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 77 88 / 70 20 0 10
STT 77 86 78 88 / 90 20 10 10
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST FRIDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN
USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MONA
PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST FRIDAY FOR MONA PASSAGE
SOUTHWARD TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM.
&&
$$
15/54
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 191909
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IS RAPIDLY DRAWING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND...SO FAR...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
GOING TOO. A LARGE BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE CARIBBEAN
SOUTH OF USVI AT 15N TO 17N AND IT IS WRAPPING INTO ST. CROIX AND
TO CULEBRA. BUT NONE OF THESE ARE LIKELY TO MOVE TOWARDS PR SOON
SO AM NOT SURE ABOUT CARRYING VERY MANY SHOWERS INTO EVE. ONSHORE
FLOW MAY REGENERATE SOME SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHEAST PR
SLOPES IN NEXT FEW HOURS...AND IT CURRENTLY SHOWS A LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR THAT.
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR 15N/65.5W IS HANDLED BY
THE GFS AS A WEAK REMNANT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH MOVES
NORTHWEST. GFS GOES A LITTLE NUTS OVER IT AS IT ENCOUNTERS GOOD
250 MB DIVERGENCE TONIGHT. THE RESULTING COVERGENCE AT 700 MB AND
DIVERGENCE AT 250 MB...ESPECIALLY AT THU/12Z SOUTH OF PR AT 16.6N
LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND WILL NOT BITE. SO AM DISMISSING
THIS AS GFS SHOWS IT MOVING OVER THE ISLAND ON THU. CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY DOES NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT SINCE STRONG DRY
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AS THE MOIST PLUME CONTINUES MOVING WEST AT
25 KNOTS...HAVING REACHED ANTILLES ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA GRDLLY DECR BUT THREAT OF MVFR/IFR STILL
POSBL. MOISTURE TO DROP OFF DURING THU DAYTIME. WIND BLO FL100
MAINLY SOUTHEAST 15-25 KT.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THU BUT
GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 77 88 / 70 20 0 10
STT 77 86 78 88 / 90 20 10 10
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST FRIDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN
USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MONA
PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST FRIDAY FOR MONA PASSAGE
SOUTHWARD TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM.
&&
$$
15/54
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 191532
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1132 AM AST WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK...AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE SHOWERS ARE FAST MOVING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE NOT
BEEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE ENOUGH RUNOFF FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
PROBLEMS...THUS FAR...OTHER THAN PONDING OF WATER IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND ROADWAYS. FLOODING POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS UNTIL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DECREASES LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY FOR MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS.
&&
.AVIATION...NO CHANGES TO PREV FORECAST...PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS PSBL ACROSS TIST AND TISX IN SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE. SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES...LESS SO AT TNCM AND TKPK...AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOISTURE
MOVES OVER THE REGION. WIND FLOW OF 10-25 KNOTS THE WAY FROM THE
SURFACE TO 15K FEET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM AST WED JUN 19 2013/
SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING
WILL RELOCATE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. THE TROUGH
ALOFT WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...
RESULTING IN MORE INTENSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE ON THURSDAY AS A DRIER AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST
MOVES OVER THE ISLANDS.
DISCUSSION...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE ANEGADA PASSAGE...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD AT 20 KT. GUSTY WINDS
NEAR 37 KT WERE OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...SPECIFICALLY AT BUOY
41052 JUST SOUTH OF ST JOHN. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
WILL QUICKLY SURGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...REACHING A
MAXIMUM OF AROUND 2.25 INCHES BY 19/18Z. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL
BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS WELL AS SQUALLY WEATHER ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. THE
TROUGH ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
OF THE WAVE TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. OVERALL...EXPECT AN ACTIVE WEATHER
DAY WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SAHARAN DUST WILL
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS PSBL ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...
TIST AND TISX IN SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.
SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES BY 19/12Z AS
THE TROPICAL WAVE MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. TJSJ 19/00Z
SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10-25 KNOTS ALL THE
WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 15K FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY ALOFT.
MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SCA...IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR FRESH TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROBABLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW US TO DROP THE SCA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 88 78 / 70 70 40 0
STT 87 78 88 80 / 90 90 20 10
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AST THURSDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
SOUTHWARD TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AST THURSDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM AST
THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM AST THIS
EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT
10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM AST
THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10
NM.
&&
$$
15/54
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 191532
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1132 AM AST WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK...AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE SHOWERS ARE FAST MOVING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE NOT
BEEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE ENOUGH RUNOFF FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
PROBLEMS...THUS FAR...OTHER THAN PONDING OF WATER IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND ROADWAYS. FLOODING POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS UNTIL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DECREASES LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY FOR MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS.
&&
.AVIATION...NO CHANGES TO PREV FORECAST...PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS PSBL ACROSS TIST AND TISX IN SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE. SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES...LESS SO AT TNCM AND TKPK...AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOISTURE
MOVES OVER THE REGION. WIND FLOW OF 10-25 KNOTS THE WAY FROM THE
SURFACE TO 15K FEET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM AST WED JUN 19 2013/
SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING
WILL RELOCATE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. THE TROUGH
ALOFT WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...
RESULTING IN MORE INTENSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE ON THURSDAY AS A DRIER AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST
MOVES OVER THE ISLANDS.
DISCUSSION...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE ANEGADA PASSAGE...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD AT 20 KT. GUSTY WINDS
NEAR 37 KT WERE OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...SPECIFICALLY AT BUOY
41052 JUST SOUTH OF ST JOHN. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
WILL QUICKLY SURGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...REACHING A
MAXIMUM OF AROUND 2.25 INCHES BY 19/18Z. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL
BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS WELL AS SQUALLY WEATHER ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. THE
TROUGH ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
OF THE WAVE TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. OVERALL...EXPECT AN ACTIVE WEATHER
DAY WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SAHARAN DUST WILL
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS PSBL ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...
TIST AND TISX IN SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.
SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES BY 19/12Z AS
THE TROPICAL WAVE MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. TJSJ 19/00Z
SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10-25 KNOTS ALL THE
WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 15K FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY ALOFT.
MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SCA...IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR FRESH TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROBABLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW US TO DROP THE SCA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 88 78 / 70 70 40 0
STT 87 78 88 80 / 90 90 20 10
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AST THURSDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
SOUTHWARD TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AST THURSDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM AST
THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM AST THIS
EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT
10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM AST
THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10
NM.
&&
$$
15/54
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 190906
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING
WILL RELOCATE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. THE TROUGH
ALOFT WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...
RESULTING IN MORE INTENSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE ON THURSDAY AS A DRIER AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST
MOVES OVER THE ISLANDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE ANEGADA PASSAGE...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD AT 20 KT. GUSTY WINDS
NEAR 37 KT WERE OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...SPECIFICALLY AT BUOY
41052 JUST SOUTH OF ST JOHN. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
WILL QUICKLY SURGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...REACHING A
MAXIMUM OF AROUND 2.25 INCHES BY 19/18Z. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL
BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS WELL AS SQUALLY WEATHER ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. THE
TROUGH ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
OF THE WAVE TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. OVERALL...EXPECT AN ACTIVE WEATHER
DAY WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SAHARAN DUST WILL
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS PSBL ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...
TIST AND TISX IN SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.
SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES BY 19/12Z AS
THE TROPICAL WAVE MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. TJSJ 19/00Z
SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10-25 KNOTS ALL THE
WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 15K FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY ALOFT.
&&
.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SCA...IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR FRESH TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROBABLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW US TO DROP THE SCA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 88 78 / 50 50 40 0
STT 87 78 88 80 / 60 40 20 10
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AST THURSDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
SOUTHWARD TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AST THURSDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM AST
THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM AST
THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10
NM.
&&
$$
10/11
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 190906
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING
WILL RELOCATE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. THE TROUGH
ALOFT WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...
RESULTING IN MORE INTENSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE ON THURSDAY AS A DRIER AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST
MOVES OVER THE ISLANDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE ANEGADA PASSAGE...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD AT 20 KT. GUSTY WINDS
NEAR 37 KT WERE OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...SPECIFICALLY AT BUOY
41052 JUST SOUTH OF ST JOHN. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
WILL QUICKLY SURGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...REACHING A
MAXIMUM OF AROUND 2.25 INCHES BY 19/18Z. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL
BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS WELL AS SQUALLY WEATHER ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. THE
TROUGH ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
OF THE WAVE TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. OVERALL...EXPECT AN ACTIVE WEATHER
DAY WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SAHARAN DUST WILL
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS PSBL ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...
TIST AND TISX IN SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.
SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES BY 19/12Z AS
THE TROPICAL WAVE MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. TJSJ 19/00Z
SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10-25 KNOTS ALL THE
WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 15K FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY ALOFT.
&&
.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SCA...IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR FRESH TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROBABLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW US TO DROP THE SCA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 88 78 / 50 50 40 0
STT 87 78 88 80 / 60 40 20 10
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AST THURSDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
SOUTHWARD TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AST THURSDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM AST
THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM AST
THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10
NM.
&&
$$
10/11
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 190154
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
954 PM AST TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
STILL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING THRU THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND INTERACTS WITH TUTT TO THE
NORTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED NEAR 68W WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST...BRINGING STRONGER AND GUSTIER WINDS OVER
THE AREA. SOME CHANGES WERE MADE TO MEDIUM RANGE GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS
MAINLAND PUERTO RICO FLYING AREA. HOWEVER PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...TIST AND TISX IN SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES BY 19/12Z AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. TJSJ 19/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF
10-25 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 15K FEET...BECOMING
WESTERLY ALOFT.
&&
.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. SEAS AND WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE. MAJOR CONCERN CONTINUE TO BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM AST TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CURRENTLY NORTH OF PR/USVI
ABOUT 22.5N SLOWLY DRIFTING WEST WILL INTERACT WITH A BROAD TROPICAL
WAVE CURRENTLY EAST OF THE ANTILLES...MOVING WEST AT 25 KNOTS. IT IS
ALREADY BEGINNING TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND AMPLIFY THE WAVE.
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE PRODUCING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING ALONG AT 30 KNOTS. EAST OF THE LEEWARDS
AT 17Z-18Z A SHIP AND NEAR SURFACE GOES SATELLITE WINDS WERE
REPORTING 25-28 KT. THESE ARE CONCERN ENOUGH TO KICK UP THE WINDS
AND SEAS BY WED A LITTLE WHICH INCREASES THE COVERAGE OF THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. ALSO 12Z GFS PUSHES 850-700 MB WINDS EXCEEDING 35
KT OVER TO NORTHEAST OF PR/USVI BY LATE WED. THIS IN ADDITION TO
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALREADY BEING GENERATED SUGGEST STRONG WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
DO NOT BELIEVE THAT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT SINCE
GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY AND THIS WAVE IS MOVING QUICKLY. HOWEVER
MUST ESPECIALLY WATCH THE SOUTHEAST PR COAST AS ONSHORE FLOW COULD
CAUSE PERSISTENT HEAVY SHOWERS THERE...MOST LIKELY WED EVENING.
DRYING TO OCCUR THU MORNING AND WE RETURN TO RATHER DRY CONDITIONS
WITH SIGNIFICANT SAHARAN DUST.
AVIATION...VFR MOST OF TONITE BUT SHRA/TSRA TO INCR LATE AND INTO
WED. SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON NR TJMZ WL CAUSE PDS MVFR MAYBE
IFR...OBSCD MTNS IN WEST PR. WIND BLO FL100 E 15-30 KT BCMG ESE
20-35 KT WED AFT.
MARINE...WINDS/SEAS INCREASING SLIGHTLY THROUGH WED BUT BIGGER
CONCERN IS POSSIBLE HIGHER CONDITIONS IN/NEAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON WED/WED NIGHT. GUSTS TO 35-40 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 77 88 / 50 60 50 30
STT 78 87 78 88 / 50 70 60 40
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM AST THURSDAY
FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF
NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AST FRIDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN
USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE
SOUTHWARD TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM AST THURSDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM AST THURSDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.
&&
$$
72/23
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 190154
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
954 PM AST TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
STILL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING THRU THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND INTERACTS WITH TUTT TO THE
NORTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED NEAR 68W WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST...BRINGING STRONGER AND GUSTIER WINDS OVER
THE AREA. SOME CHANGES WERE MADE TO MEDIUM RANGE GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS
MAINLAND PUERTO RICO FLYING AREA. HOWEVER PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...TIST AND TISX IN SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES BY 19/12Z AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. TJSJ 19/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF
10-25 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 15K FEET...BECOMING
WESTERLY ALOFT.
&&
.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. SEAS AND WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE. MAJOR CONCERN CONTINUE TO BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM AST TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CURRENTLY NORTH OF PR/USVI
ABOUT 22.5N SLOWLY DRIFTING WEST WILL INTERACT WITH A BROAD TROPICAL
WAVE CURRENTLY EAST OF THE ANTILLES...MOVING WEST AT 25 KNOTS. IT IS
ALREADY BEGINNING TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND AMPLIFY THE WAVE.
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE PRODUCING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING ALONG AT 30 KNOTS. EAST OF THE LEEWARDS
AT 17Z-18Z A SHIP AND NEAR SURFACE GOES SATELLITE WINDS WERE
REPORTING 25-28 KT. THESE ARE CONCERN ENOUGH TO KICK UP THE WINDS
AND SEAS BY WED A LITTLE WHICH INCREASES THE COVERAGE OF THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. ALSO 12Z GFS PUSHES 850-700 MB WINDS EXCEEDING 35
KT OVER TO NORTHEAST OF PR/USVI BY LATE WED. THIS IN ADDITION TO
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALREADY BEING GENERATED SUGGEST STRONG WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
DO NOT BELIEVE THAT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT SINCE
GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY AND THIS WAVE IS MOVING QUICKLY. HOWEVER
MUST ESPECIALLY WATCH THE SOUTHEAST PR COAST AS ONSHORE FLOW COULD
CAUSE PERSISTENT HEAVY SHOWERS THERE...MOST LIKELY WED EVENING.
DRYING TO OCCUR THU MORNING AND WE RETURN TO RATHER DRY CONDITIONS
WITH SIGNIFICANT SAHARAN DUST.
AVIATION...VFR MOST OF TONITE BUT SHRA/TSRA TO INCR LATE AND INTO
WED. SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON NR TJMZ WL CAUSE PDS MVFR MAYBE
IFR...OBSCD MTNS IN WEST PR. WIND BLO FL100 E 15-30 KT BCMG ESE
20-35 KT WED AFT.
MARINE...WINDS/SEAS INCREASING SLIGHTLY THROUGH WED BUT BIGGER
CONCERN IS POSSIBLE HIGHER CONDITIONS IN/NEAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON WED/WED NIGHT. GUSTS TO 35-40 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 77 88 / 50 60 50 30
STT 78 87 78 88 / 50 70 60 40
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM AST THURSDAY
FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF
NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AST FRIDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN
USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE
SOUTHWARD TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM AST THURSDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM AST THURSDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.
&&
$$
72/23
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 181858
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CURRENTLY NORTH OF PR/USVI
ABOUT 22.5N SLOWLY DRIFTING WEST WILL INTERACT WITH A BROAD TROPICAL
WAVE CURRENTLY EAST OF THE ANTILLES...MOVING WEST AT 25 KNOTS. IT IS
ALREADY BEGINNING TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND AMPLIFY THE WAVE.
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE PRODUCING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING ALONG AT 30 KNOTS. EAST OF THE LEEWARDS
AT 17Z-18Z A SHIP AND NEAR SURFACE GOES SATELLITE WINDS WERE
REPORTING 25-28 KT. THESE ARE CONCERN ENOUGH TO KICK UP THE WINDS
AND SEAS BY WED A LITTLE WHICH INCREASES THE COVERAGE OF THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. ALSO 12Z GFS PUSHES 850-700 MB WINDS EXCEEDING 35
KT OVER TO NORTHEAST OF PR/USVI BY LATE WED. THIS IN ADDITION TO
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALREADY BEING GENERATED SUGGEST STRONG WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
DO NOT BELIEVE THAT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT SINCE
GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY AND THIS WAVE IS MOVING QUICKLY. HOWEVER
MUST ESPECIALLY WATCH THE SOUTHEAST PR COAST AS ONSHORE FLOW COULD
CAUSE PERSISTENT HEAVY SHOWERS THERE...MOST LIKELY WED EVENING.
DRYING TO OCCUR THU MORNING AND WE RETURN TO RATHER DRY CONDITIONS
WITH SIGNIFICANT SAHARAN DUST.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR MOST OF TONITE BUT SHRA/TSRA TO INCR LATE AND INTO
WED. SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON NR TJMZ WL CAUSE PDS MVFR MAYBE
IFR...OBSCD MTNS IN WEST PR. WIND BLO FL100 E 15-30 KT BCMG ESE
20-35 KT WED AFT.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS/SEAS INCREASING SLIGHTLY THROUGH WED BUT BIGGER
CONCERN IS POSSIBLE HIGHER CONDITIONS IN/NEAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON WED/WED NIGHT. GUSTS TO 35-40 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 77 88 / 50 60 60 20
STT 78 87 78 88 / 50 70 40 20
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM AST THURSDAY
FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF
NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AST FRIDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS
OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN
USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE
SOUTHWARD TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM AST THURSDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM AST THURSDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AST FRIDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.
&&
$$
15/54
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 181858
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CURRENTLY NORTH OF PR/USVI
ABOUT 22.5N SLOWLY DRIFTING WEST WILL INTERACT WITH A BROAD TROPICAL
WAVE CURRENTLY EAST OF THE ANTILLES...MOVING WEST AT 25 KNOTS. IT IS
ALREADY BEGINNING TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND AMPLIFY THE WAVE.
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE PRODUCING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING ALONG AT 30 KNOTS. EAST OF THE LEEWARDS
AT 17Z-18Z A SHIP AND NEAR SURFACE GOES SATELLITE WINDS WERE
REPORTING 25-28 KT. THESE ARE CONCERN ENOUGH TO KICK UP THE WINDS
AND SEAS BY WED A LITTLE WHICH INCREASES THE COVERAGE OF THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. ALSO 12Z GFS PUSHES 850-700 MB WINDS EXCEEDING 35
KT OVER TO NORTHEAST OF PR/USVI BY LATE WED. THIS IN ADDITION TO
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALREADY BEING GENERATED SUGGEST STRONG WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
DO NOT BELIEVE THAT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT SINCE
GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY AND THIS WAVE IS MOVING QUICKLY. HOWEVER
MUST ESPECIALLY WATCH THE SOUTHEAST PR COAST AS ONSHORE FLOW COULD
CAUSE PERSISTENT HEAVY SHOWERS THERE...MOST LIKELY WED EVENING.
DRYING TO OCCUR THU MORNING AND WE RETURN TO RATHER DRY CONDITIONS
WITH SIGNIFICANT SAHARAN DUST.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR MOST OF TONITE BUT SHRA/TSRA TO INCR LATE AND INTO
WED. SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON NR TJMZ WL CAUSE PDS MVFR MAYBE
IFR...OBSCD MTNS IN WEST PR. WIND BLO FL100 E 15-30 KT BCMG ESE
20-35 KT WED AFT.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS/SEAS INCREASING SLIGHTLY THROUGH WED BUT BIGGER
CONCERN IS POSSIBLE HIGHER CONDITIONS IN/NEAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON WED/WED NIGHT. GUSTS TO 35-40 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 77 88 / 50 60 60 20
STT 78 87 78 88 / 50 70 40 20
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM AST THURSDAY
FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF
NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AST FRIDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS
OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN
USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE
SOUTHWARD TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM AST THURSDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM AST THURSDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AST FRIDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.
&&
$$
15/54
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 181526
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1126 AM AST TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE...ANOTHER RELATIVELY FAIR
WEATHER DAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO
RECEDE AND SOILS...TO DRY OUT. QUIET UNTIL TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...NO CHANGES...VFR CONT XCP IN ISOLD SHRA/TSRA...MTN
OBSC THIS AFT. WIND BLO FL100 E 15-30 KT BCMG ESE 20-35 KT WED
AFT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM AST TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE WAS MADE TO TODAYS FORECASTS.
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH REMAIN NORTH OF PR/USVI AND
SLOWLY DRIFTING WEST. 06Z GFS SHOWED SIGNIFICANT 250 MB DIVERGENCE
WHICH COULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
PASSES BY WED TO THU MORNING...WILL SEE IF IT IS STILL THERE ON
12Z RUN BUT NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDER ARE ALREADY IN GRIDS AND THIS
MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT.
AVIATION...VFR CONT XCP IN ISOLD SHRA/TSRA...MTN OBSC THIS
AFT. WIND BLO FL100 E 15-30 KT BCMG ESE 20-35 KT WED AFT.
MARINE...WINDS UP TO 21 KT AND SEAS TO 6 FT TODAY. SEAS TO 7 FEET
ON WED OVER OUTER WATERS WHILE SHOWERS COULD CAUSE VERY GUSTY
WINDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM AST TUE JUN 18 2013/
SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IS ABOUT 290 MILES
NORTH OF SAINT THOMAS AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY WEST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK A RIDGE
WILL HAVE BUILT INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND EXTEND NORTH TO
FLORIDA.
AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH OVER AND NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE
SLOWLY WEST AND WEAKEN ONLY TO RE-FORM OVER THE WEEKEND NORTH OF
THE AREA. LOWER PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENSCONCED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL KEEP MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME RAIN...AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS.
DISCUSSION...AGAIN VERY FEW SHOWERS WERE SEEN OVERNIGHT IN
RELATIVELY BRISK EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. DUST FROM THE SAHARA
WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE COMING TROPICAL WAVE
SURFACE VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT. MOISTURE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA REACHED A MINIMUM OVERNIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO
RECOVER...TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES BY 19/18Z. MOISTURE OVER SAINT
CROIX IS ALREADY APPROACHING 1.7 INCHES. THIS HERALDS THE TROPICAL
WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DOUBLE TROUGH AT 700
MB. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL PASS OVER PUERTO RICO AT ABOUT 19/12Z
WHILE THE SECOND AND STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN
20/06 AND 20/12Z. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY STRONG
SOUTHEAST WIND SURGE OF BETWEEN 925 AND 700 MB...WHICH ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL REACH 40 KNOTS ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND CONFIRMED BY
THE WRF AND NMM MODELS IN BOTH THE 17/18Z AND 18/00Z GFS RUNS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE LIKELY TO HAVE
VERY STRONG GUSTS WHICH COULD...IN A FEW PLACES...EXCEED SEVERE
LIMITS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. BECAUSE MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS IS LIMITED AND FOLLOWED IMMEDIATELY BY MORE
SAHARAN AIR...HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE...AND
FLOODING...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL DRAINAGE PROBLEMS...IS NOT EXPECTED WITH
THIS WAVE. MOISTURE REACHES A MINIMUM ON FRIDAY EVENING AFTER THE
WAVE PASSES SIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT JUST OCCURRED. AT THAT TIME
WINDS WILL ABATE AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. A SECOND
PULSE OF MOISTURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION...VFR COND WILL CONTINUE XCP ON TUE AFTERNOON WHERE ISOLD/SCT
SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA OVR INTERIOR/WEST PR WI MTN OBSC ARE POSSIBLE.
WIND SFC TO 2K FT GENERALLY FROM EAST AT 10-20 KT. SAHARAN DUST AT
TIMES TO CAUSE SLIGHTLY LWR VSBY.
MARINE...WINDS OF 16 TO 20 KNOTS HAVE ALREADY BROUGHT SEAS OF 4
TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL EXPOSED WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE. SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL LIKELY REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS...LOCALLY 30 KNOTS...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GUSTS IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 45
KNOTS IN A FEW PLACES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 85 76 / 10 50 50 60
STT 88 77 85 76 / 10 50 50 40
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM AST THURSDAY
FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO
RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO
RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM AST THURSDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM AST
THURSDAY FOR MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.
&&
$$
15/54
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 181526
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1126 AM AST TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE...ANOTHER RELATIVELY FAIR
WEATHER DAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO
RECEDE AND SOILS...TO DRY OUT. QUIET UNTIL TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...NO CHANGES...VFR CONT XCP IN ISOLD SHRA/TSRA...MTN
OBSC THIS AFT. WIND BLO FL100 E 15-30 KT BCMG ESE 20-35 KT WED
AFT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM AST TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE WAS MADE TO TODAYS FORECASTS.
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH REMAIN NORTH OF PR/USVI AND
SLOWLY DRIFTING WEST. 06Z GFS SHOWED SIGNIFICANT 250 MB DIVERGENCE
WHICH COULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
PASSES BY WED TO THU MORNING...WILL SEE IF IT IS STILL THERE ON
12Z RUN BUT NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDER ARE ALREADY IN GRIDS AND THIS
MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT.
AVIATION...VFR CONT XCP IN ISOLD SHRA/TSRA...MTN OBSC THIS
AFT. WIND BLO FL100 E 15-30 KT BCMG ESE 20-35 KT WED AFT.
MARINE...WINDS UP TO 21 KT AND SEAS TO 6 FT TODAY. SEAS TO 7 FEET
ON WED OVER OUTER WATERS WHILE SHOWERS COULD CAUSE VERY GUSTY
WINDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM AST TUE JUN 18 2013/
SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IS ABOUT 290 MILES
NORTH OF SAINT THOMAS AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY WEST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK A RIDGE
WILL HAVE BUILT INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND EXTEND NORTH TO
FLORIDA.
AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH OVER AND NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE
SLOWLY WEST AND WEAKEN ONLY TO RE-FORM OVER THE WEEKEND NORTH OF
THE AREA. LOWER PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENSCONCED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL KEEP MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME RAIN...AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS.
DISCUSSION...AGAIN VERY FEW SHOWERS WERE SEEN OVERNIGHT IN
RELATIVELY BRISK EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. DUST FROM THE SAHARA
WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE COMING TROPICAL WAVE
SURFACE VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT. MOISTURE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA REACHED A MINIMUM OVERNIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO
RECOVER...TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES BY 19/18Z. MOISTURE OVER SAINT
CROIX IS ALREADY APPROACHING 1.7 INCHES. THIS HERALDS THE TROPICAL
WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DOUBLE TROUGH AT 700
MB. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL PASS OVER PUERTO RICO AT ABOUT 19/12Z
WHILE THE SECOND AND STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN
20/06 AND 20/12Z. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY STRONG
SOUTHEAST WIND SURGE OF BETWEEN 925 AND 700 MB...WHICH ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL REACH 40 KNOTS ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND CONFIRMED BY
THE WRF AND NMM MODELS IN BOTH THE 17/18Z AND 18/00Z GFS RUNS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE LIKELY TO HAVE
VERY STRONG GUSTS WHICH COULD...IN A FEW PLACES...EXCEED SEVERE
LIMITS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. BECAUSE MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS IS LIMITED AND FOLLOWED IMMEDIATELY BY MORE
SAHARAN AIR...HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE...AND
FLOODING...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL DRAINAGE PROBLEMS...IS NOT EXPECTED WITH
THIS WAVE. MOISTURE REACHES A MINIMUM ON FRIDAY EVENING AFTER THE
WAVE PASSES SIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT JUST OCCURRED. AT THAT TIME
WINDS WILL ABATE AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. A SECOND
PULSE OF MOISTURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION...VFR COND WILL CONTINUE XCP ON TUE AFTERNOON WHERE ISOLD/SCT
SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA OVR INTERIOR/WEST PR WI MTN OBSC ARE POSSIBLE.
WIND SFC TO 2K FT GENERALLY FROM EAST AT 10-20 KT. SAHARAN DUST AT
TIMES TO CAUSE SLIGHTLY LWR VSBY.
MARINE...WINDS OF 16 TO 20 KNOTS HAVE ALREADY BROUGHT SEAS OF 4
TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL EXPOSED WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE. SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL LIKELY REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS...LOCALLY 30 KNOTS...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GUSTS IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 45
KNOTS IN A FEW PLACES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 85 76 / 10 50 50 60
STT 88 77 85 76 / 10 50 50 40
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM AST THURSDAY
FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO
RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO
RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM AST THURSDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM AST
THURSDAY FOR MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.
&&
$$
15/54
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 181513
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1113 AM AST TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE WAS MADE TO TODAYS FORECASTS.
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH REMAIN NORTH OF PR/USVI AND
SLOWLY DRIFTING WEST. 06Z GFS SHOWED SIGNIFICANT 250 MB DIVERGENCE
WHICH COULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
PASSES BY WED TO THU MORNING...WILL SEE IF IT IS STILL THERE ON
12Z RUN BUT NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDER ARE ALREADY IN GRIDS AND THIS
MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONT XCP IN ISOLD SHRA/TSRA...MTN OBSC THIS
AFT. WIND BLO FL100 E 15-30 KT BCMG ESE 20-35 KT WED AFT.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS UP TO 21 KT AND SEAS TO 6 FT TODAY. SEAS TO 7 FEET
ON WED OVER OUTER WATERS WHILE SHOWERS COULD CAUSE VERY GUSTY
WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM AST TUE JUN 18 2013/
SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IS ABOUT 290 MILES
NORTH OF SAINT THOMAS AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY WEST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK A RIDGE
WILL HAVE BUILT INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND EXTEND NORTH TO
FLORIDA.
AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH OVER AND NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE
SLOWLY WEST AND WEAKEN ONLY TO RE-FORM OVER THE WEEKEND NORTH OF
THE AREA. LOWER PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENSCONCED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL KEEP MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME RAIN...AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS.
DISCUSSION...AGAIN VERY FEW SHOWERS WERE SEEN OVERNIGHT IN
RELATIVELY BRISK EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. DUST FROM THE SAHARA
WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE COMING TROPICAL WAVE
SURFACE VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT. MOISTURE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA REACHED A MINIMUM OVERNIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO
RECOVER...TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES BY 19/18Z. MOISTURE OVER SAINT
CROIX IS ALREADY APPROACHING 1.7 INCHES. THIS HERALDS THE TROPICAL
WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DOUBLE TROUGH AT 700
MB. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL PASS OVER PUERTO RICO AT ABOUT 19/12Z
WHILE THE SECOND AND STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN
20/06 AND 20/12Z. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY STRONG
SOUTHEAST WIND SURGE OF BETWEEN 925 AND 700 MB...WHICH ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL REACH 40 KNOTS ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND CONFIRMED BY
THE WRF AND NMM MODELS IN BOTH THE 17/18Z AND 18/00Z GFS RUNS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE LIKELY TO HAVE
VERY STRONG GUSTS WHICH COULD...IN A FEW PLACES...EXCEED SEVERE
LIMITS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. BECAUSE MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS IS LIMITED AND FOLLOWED IMMEDIATELY BY MORE
SAHARAN AIR...HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE...AND
FLOODING...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL DRAINAGE PROBLEMS...IS NOT EXPECTED WITH
THIS WAVE. MOISTURE REACHES A MINIMUM ON FRIDAY EVENING AFTER THE
WAVE PASSES SIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT JUST OCCURRED. AT THAT TIME
WINDS WILL ABATE AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. A SECOND
PULSE OF MOISTURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION...VFR COND WILL CONTINUE XCP ON TUE AFTERNOON WHERE ISOLD/SCT
SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA OVR INTERIOR/WEST PR WI MTN OBSC ARE POSSIBLE.
WIND SFC TO 2K FT GENERALLY FROM EAST AT 10-20 KT. SAHARAN DUST AT
TIMES TO CAUSE SLIGHTLY LWR VSBY.
MARINE...WINDS OF 16 TO 20 KNOTS HAVE ALREADY BROUGHT SEAS OF 4
TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL EXPOSED WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE. SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL LIKELY REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS...LOCALLY 30 KNOTS...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GUSTS IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 45
KNOTS IN A FEW PLACES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 85 76 / 10 50 50 60
STT 88 77 85 76 / 10 50 50 40
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM AST THURSDAY
FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO
RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO
RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM AST THURSDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM AST
THURSDAY FOR MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.
&&
$$
15/54
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 181513
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1113 AM AST TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE WAS MADE TO TODAYS FORECASTS.
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH REMAIN NORTH OF PR/USVI AND
SLOWLY DRIFTING WEST. 06Z GFS SHOWED SIGNIFICANT 250 MB DIVERGENCE
WHICH COULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
PASSES BY WED TO THU MORNING...WILL SEE IF IT IS STILL THERE ON
12Z RUN BUT NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDER ARE ALREADY IN GRIDS AND THIS
MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONT XCP IN ISOLD SHRA/TSRA...MTN OBSC THIS
AFT. WIND BLO FL100 E 15-30 KT BCMG ESE 20-35 KT WED AFT.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS UP TO 21 KT AND SEAS TO 6 FT TODAY. SEAS TO 7 FEET
ON WED OVER OUTER WATERS WHILE SHOWERS COULD CAUSE VERY GUSTY
WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM AST TUE JUN 18 2013/
SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IS ABOUT 290 MILES
NORTH OF SAINT THOMAS AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY WEST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK A RIDGE
WILL HAVE BUILT INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND EXTEND NORTH TO
FLORIDA.
AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH OVER AND NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE
SLOWLY WEST AND WEAKEN ONLY TO RE-FORM OVER THE WEEKEND NORTH OF
THE AREA. LOWER PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENSCONCED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL KEEP MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME RAIN...AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS.
DISCUSSION...AGAIN VERY FEW SHOWERS WERE SEEN OVERNIGHT IN
RELATIVELY BRISK EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. DUST FROM THE SAHARA
WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE COMING TROPICAL WAVE
SURFACE VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT. MOISTURE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA REACHED A MINIMUM OVERNIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO
RECOVER...TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES BY 19/18Z. MOISTURE OVER SAINT
CROIX IS ALREADY APPROACHING 1.7 INCHES. THIS HERALDS THE TROPICAL
WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DOUBLE TROUGH AT 700
MB. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL PASS OVER PUERTO RICO AT ABOUT 19/12Z
WHILE THE SECOND AND STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN
20/06 AND 20/12Z. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY STRONG
SOUTHEAST WIND SURGE OF BETWEEN 925 AND 700 MB...WHICH ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL REACH 40 KNOTS ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND CONFIRMED BY
THE WRF AND NMM MODELS IN BOTH THE 17/18Z AND 18/00Z GFS RUNS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE LIKELY TO HAVE
VERY STRONG GUSTS WHICH COULD...IN A FEW PLACES...EXCEED SEVERE
LIMITS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. BECAUSE MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS IS LIMITED AND FOLLOWED IMMEDIATELY BY MORE
SAHARAN AIR...HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE...AND
FLOODING...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL DRAINAGE PROBLEMS...IS NOT EXPECTED WITH
THIS WAVE. MOISTURE REACHES A MINIMUM ON FRIDAY EVENING AFTER THE
WAVE PASSES SIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT JUST OCCURRED. AT THAT TIME
WINDS WILL ABATE AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. A SECOND
PULSE OF MOISTURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION...VFR COND WILL CONTINUE XCP ON TUE AFTERNOON WHERE ISOLD/SCT
SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA OVR INTERIOR/WEST PR WI MTN OBSC ARE POSSIBLE.
WIND SFC TO 2K FT GENERALLY FROM EAST AT 10-20 KT. SAHARAN DUST AT
TIMES TO CAUSE SLIGHTLY LWR VSBY.
MARINE...WINDS OF 16 TO 20 KNOTS HAVE ALREADY BROUGHT SEAS OF 4
TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL EXPOSED WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE. SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL LIKELY REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS...LOCALLY 30 KNOTS...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GUSTS IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 45
KNOTS IN A FEW PLACES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 85 76 / 10 50 50 60
STT 88 77 85 76 / 10 50 50 40
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM AST THURSDAY
FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO
RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO
RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM AST THURSDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM AST
THURSDAY FOR MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.
&&
$$
15/54
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 180920
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IS ABOUT 290 MILES
NORTH OF SAINT THOMAS AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY WEST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK A RIDGE
WILL HAVE BUILT INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND EXTEND NORTH TO
FLORIDA.
AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH OVER AND NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE
SLOWLY WEST AND WEAKEN ONLY TO RE-FORM OVER THE WEEKEND NORTH OF
THE AREA. LOWER PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENSCONCED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL KEEP MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME RAIN...AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AGAIN VERY FEW SHOWERS WERE SEEN OVERNIGHT IN
RELATIVELY BRISK EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. DUST FROM THE SAHARA
WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE COMING TROPICAL WAVE
SURFACE VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT. MOISTURE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA REACHED A MINIMUM OVERNIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO
RECOVER...TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES BY 19/18Z. MOISTURE OVER SAINT
CROIX IS ALREADY APPROACHING 1.7 INCHES. THIS HERALDS THE TROPICAL
WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DOUBLE TROUGH AT 700
MB. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL PASS OVER PUERTO RICO AT ABOUT 19/12Z
WHILE THE SECOND AND STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN
20/06 AND 20/12Z. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY STRONG
SOUTHEAST WIND SURGE OF BETWEEN 925 AND 700 MB...WHICH ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL REACH 40 KNOTS ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND CONFIRMED BY
THE WRF AND NMM MODELS IN BOTH THE 17/18Z AND 18/00Z GFS RUNS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE LIKELY TO HAVE
VERY STRONG GUSTS WHICH COULD...IN A FEW PLACES...EXCEED SEVERE
LIMITS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. BECAUSE MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS IS LIMITED AND FOLLOWED IMMEDIATELY BY MORE
SAHARAN AIR...HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE...AND
FLOODING...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL DRAINAGE PROBLEMS...IS NOT EXPECTED WITH
THIS WAVE. MOISTURE REACHES A MINIMUM ON FRIDAY EVENING AFTER THE
WAVE PASSES SIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT JUST OCCURRED. AT THAT TIME
WINDS WILL ABATE AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. A SECOND
PULSE OF MOISTURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR COND WILL CONTINUE XCP ON TUE AFTERNOON WHERE ISOLD/SCT
SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA OVR INTERIOR/WEST PR WI MTN OBSC ARE POSSIBLE.
WIND SFC TO 2K FT GENERALLY FROM EAST AT 10-20 KT. SAHARAN DUST AT
TIMES TO CAUSE SLIGHTLY LWR VSBY.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS OF 16 TO 20 KNOTS HAVE ALREADY BROUGHT SEAS OF 4
TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL EXPOSED WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE. SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL LIKELY REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS...LOCALLY 30 KNOTS...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GUSTS IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 45
KNOTS IN A FEW PLACES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 85 76 / 10 50 50 60
STT 88 77 85 76 / 10 50 50 40
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM AST THURSDAY
FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO
RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO
RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM AST THURSDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM AST
THURSDAY FOR MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.
&&
$$
10/12
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 180920
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IS ABOUT 290 MILES
NORTH OF SAINT THOMAS AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY WEST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK A RIDGE
WILL HAVE BUILT INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND EXTEND NORTH TO
FLORIDA.
AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH OVER AND NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE
SLOWLY WEST AND WEAKEN ONLY TO RE-FORM OVER THE WEEKEND NORTH OF
THE AREA. LOWER PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENSCONCED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL KEEP MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME RAIN...AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AGAIN VERY FEW SHOWERS WERE SEEN OVERNIGHT IN
RELATIVELY BRISK EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. DUST FROM THE SAHARA
WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE COMING TROPICAL WAVE
SURFACE VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT. MOISTURE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA REACHED A MINIMUM OVERNIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO
RECOVER...TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES BY 19/18Z. MOISTURE OVER SAINT
CROIX IS ALREADY APPROACHING 1.7 INCHES. THIS HERALDS THE TROPICAL
WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DOUBLE TROUGH AT 700
MB. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL PASS OVER PUERTO RICO AT ABOUT 19/12Z
WHILE THE SECOND AND STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN
20/06 AND 20/12Z. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY STRONG
SOUTHEAST WIND SURGE OF BETWEEN 925 AND 700 MB...WHICH ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL REACH 40 KNOTS ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND CONFIRMED BY
THE WRF AND NMM MODELS IN BOTH THE 17/18Z AND 18/00Z GFS RUNS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE LIKELY TO HAVE
VERY STRONG GUSTS WHICH COULD...IN A FEW PLACES...EXCEED SEVERE
LIMITS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. BECAUSE MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS IS LIMITED AND FOLLOWED IMMEDIATELY BY MORE
SAHARAN AIR...HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE...AND
FLOODING...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL DRAINAGE PROBLEMS...IS NOT EXPECTED WITH
THIS WAVE. MOISTURE REACHES A MINIMUM ON FRIDAY EVENING AFTER THE
WAVE PASSES SIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT JUST OCCURRED. AT THAT TIME
WINDS WILL ABATE AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. A SECOND
PULSE OF MOISTURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR COND WILL CONTINUE XCP ON TUE AFTERNOON WHERE ISOLD/SCT
SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA OVR INTERIOR/WEST PR WI MTN OBSC ARE POSSIBLE.
WIND SFC TO 2K FT GENERALLY FROM EAST AT 10-20 KT. SAHARAN DUST AT
TIMES TO CAUSE SLIGHTLY LWR VSBY.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS OF 16 TO 20 KNOTS HAVE ALREADY BROUGHT SEAS OF 4
TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL EXPOSED WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE. SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL LIKELY REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS...LOCALLY 30 KNOTS...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GUSTS IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 45
KNOTS IN A FEW PLACES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 85 76 / 10 50 50 60
STT 88 77 85 76 / 10 50 50 40
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM AST THURSDAY
FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO
RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO
RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM AST THURSDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM AST
THURSDAY FOR MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.
&&
$$
10/12
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 180219
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1019 PM AST MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK. A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SHALLOW AFTERNOON
CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS TROPICAL WAVES MOVES OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...
BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE A DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS
IS EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR COND WILL CONTINUE XCP IN TUE AFT WHERE ISOLD/SCT
SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA OVR INTERIOR/WEST PR WI MTN OBSC IS POSSIBLE.
WIND SFC TO 2K FT GENERALLY FROM EAST AT 10-20 KT. SAHARAN DUST AT
TIMES TO CAUSE SLGTLY LWR VSBY.
&&
.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS 21
KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY
AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM AST MON JUN 17 2013/
SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL
EVOLVE INTO A CUT OFF LOW TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER NORTH OF THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY. A GENERALLY
FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH MIDWEEK. WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL CHANGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE APPROACHES THE AREA.
DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS WITH
MINIMAL SHOWERS OVER LAND AREAS DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...AS A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. FEW SHOWERS
ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THIS ACTIVITY WAS SHORT-LIVE AND
DISSIPATED RAPIDLY. TJSJ 17/12 SOUNDING INDICATED A MODERATE PWAT
VALUE OF 1.74 INCHES. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN AS TODAY IS EXPECTED
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION UNTIL THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 58 WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...APPROACHES TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS. LATEST SATELITE IMAGES AND
COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
AVIATION...VFR THRU TUE XCP IN AFT NR ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA OVR
INTERIOR/WEST PR WI MTN OBSC. WIND BLO FL150 E 15-30 KT THRU TUE.
SAHARAN DUST AT TIMES TO CAUSE SLGTLY LWR VSBY.
MARINE...SEAS CONTINUE IN THE ORDER OF 4 TO 6 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20
KT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND WILL AFFECT PR/USVI WED AND
THU.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 87 77 83 / 10 10 50 60
STT 79 89 79 86 / 10 10 50 50
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
02/23
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 180219
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1019 PM AST MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK. A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SHALLOW AFTERNOON
CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS TROPICAL WAVES MOVES OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...
BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE A DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS
IS EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR COND WILL CONTINUE XCP IN TUE AFT WHERE ISOLD/SCT
SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA OVR INTERIOR/WEST PR WI MTN OBSC IS POSSIBLE.
WIND SFC TO 2K FT GENERALLY FROM EAST AT 10-20 KT. SAHARAN DUST AT
TIMES TO CAUSE SLGTLY LWR VSBY.
&&
.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS 21
KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY
AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM AST MON JUN 17 2013/
SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL
EVOLVE INTO A CUT OFF LOW TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER NORTH OF THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY. A GENERALLY
FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH MIDWEEK. WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL CHANGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE APPROACHES THE AREA.
DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS WITH
MINIMAL SHOWERS OVER LAND AREAS DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...AS A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. FEW SHOWERS
ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THIS ACTIVITY WAS SHORT-LIVE AND
DISSIPATED RAPIDLY. TJSJ 17/12 SOUNDING INDICATED A MODERATE PWAT
VALUE OF 1.74 INCHES. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN AS TODAY IS EXPECTED
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION UNTIL THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 58 WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...APPROACHES TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS. LATEST SATELITE IMAGES AND
COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
AVIATION...VFR THRU TUE XCP IN AFT NR ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA OVR
INTERIOR/WEST PR WI MTN OBSC. WIND BLO FL150 E 15-30 KT THRU TUE.
SAHARAN DUST AT TIMES TO CAUSE SLGTLY LWR VSBY.
MARINE...SEAS CONTINUE IN THE ORDER OF 4 TO 6 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20
KT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND WILL AFFECT PR/USVI WED AND
THU.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 87 77 83 / 10 10 50 60
STT 79 89 79 86 / 10 10 50 50
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
02/23
| 
