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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 060049
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
849 PM AST SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HAZY
SKIES AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE.
NOT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED IN THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. OTHERWISE NOT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HAZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH VISIBILITIES OF P6SM. FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE LOCAL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15-20KT AND GUSTY
AFTER 06/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SEAS WILL TAKE A LITTLE
LONGER TO SUBSIDE. MODELS INDICATE THAT AREAS OF 7 FOOT SEAS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING AND SMALL CRAFT WAS ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM AST SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...AREA REMAINS QUITE DRY THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
ENTERED THE WATERS FROM THE EAST. THE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE MAY BE
TOO LATE TO GENERATE ANY OVER WESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
WILL BECOME SCATTERED ON NORTHWEST SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL WAVE...
MOST NOTICABLE AT 700 MB...OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATER TONIGHT.

GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL MEANS (1.85
INCHES AT TJSJ) ALL OF THIS WEEK SO WILL NOT RAISE PROBABILITY
ABOVE SCATTERED AT ANY TIME AND OFTEN WE MAY BE COMPLETELY WITHOUT
SHOWERS IN THE AREA.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE VCSH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS TJMZ...TIST/TISX AND
TJSJ. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT...POSSIBLY
CAUSING VCSH ACROSS TIST/TISX AND TJSJ. WIND WILL REMAIN AT AROUND
15 KTS FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...
DECREASING SLIGHTLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO AROUND 10KTS.

MARINE...WINDS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 22 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGHOUT
REGION THOUGH SEAS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO SUBSIDE. MODELS
INDICATE THAT AREAS OF 7 FOOT SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO MON MORNING
AND SMALL CRAFT WAS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

FIRE WEATHER...RAWS SITE AT CAMP SANTIAGO REPORTED 33 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 3PM WHILE WIND IS KICKING UP A LITTLE TOO.
RED FLAG CONTINUES BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING TOWARDS LATE
AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT BETTER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  81  91  79  89 /  40  40  10  30
STT  79  90  79  89 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM AST MONDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

13/72




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 060049
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
849 PM AST SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HAZY
SKIES AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE.
NOT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED IN THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. OTHERWISE NOT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HAZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH VISIBILITIES OF P6SM. FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE LOCAL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15-20KT AND GUSTY
AFTER 06/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SEAS WILL TAKE A LITTLE
LONGER TO SUBSIDE. MODELS INDICATE THAT AREAS OF 7 FOOT SEAS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING AND SMALL CRAFT WAS ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM AST SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...AREA REMAINS QUITE DRY THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
ENTERED THE WATERS FROM THE EAST. THE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE MAY BE
TOO LATE TO GENERATE ANY OVER WESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
WILL BECOME SCATTERED ON NORTHWEST SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL WAVE...
MOST NOTICABLE AT 700 MB...OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATER TONIGHT.

GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL MEANS (1.85
INCHES AT TJSJ) ALL OF THIS WEEK SO WILL NOT RAISE PROBABILITY
ABOVE SCATTERED AT ANY TIME AND OFTEN WE MAY BE COMPLETELY WITHOUT
SHOWERS IN THE AREA.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE VCSH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS TJMZ...TIST/TISX AND
TJSJ. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT...POSSIBLY
CAUSING VCSH ACROSS TIST/TISX AND TJSJ. WIND WILL REMAIN AT AROUND
15 KTS FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...
DECREASING SLIGHTLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO AROUND 10KTS.

MARINE...WINDS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 22 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGHOUT
REGION THOUGH SEAS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO SUBSIDE. MODELS
INDICATE THAT AREAS OF 7 FOOT SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO MON MORNING
AND SMALL CRAFT WAS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

FIRE WEATHER...RAWS SITE AT CAMP SANTIAGO REPORTED 33 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 3PM WHILE WIND IS KICKING UP A LITTLE TOO.
RED FLAG CONTINUES BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING TOWARDS LATE
AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT BETTER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  81  91  79  89 /  40  40  10  30
STT  79  90  79  89 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM AST MONDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

13/72



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 051839
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...AREA REMAINS QUITE DRY THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
ENTERED THE WATERS FROM THE EAST. THE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE MAY BE
TOO LATE TO GENERATE ANY OVER WESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
WILL BECOME SCATTERED ON NORTHWEST SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL WAVE...
MOST NOTICABLE AT 700 MB...OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATER TONIGHT.

GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL MEANS (1.85
INCHES AT TJSJ) ALL OF THIS WEEK SO WILL NOT RAISE PROBABILITY
ABOVE SCATTERED AT ANY TIME AND OFTEN WE MAY BE COMPLETELY WITHOUT
SHOWERS IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE VCSH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS TJMZ...TIST/TISX AND
TJSJ. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT...POSSIBLY
CAUSING VCSH ACROSS TIST/TISX AND TJSJ. WIND WILL REMAIN AT AROUND
15 KTS FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...
DECREASING SLIGHTLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO AROUND 10KTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 22 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGHOUT
REGION THOUGH SEAS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO SUBSIDE. MODELS
INDICATE THAT AREAS OF 7 FOOT SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO MON MORNING
AND SMALL CRAFT WAS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RAWS SITE AT CAMP SANTIAGO REPORTED 33 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 3PM WHILE WIND IS KICKING UP A LITTLE TOO.
RED FLAG CONTINUES BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING TOWARDS LATE
AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT BETTER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  81  91  79  89 /  40  40  10  30
STT  79  90  79  89 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH COASTAL
     PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHWEST-
     PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ST CROIX.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM AST MONDAY FOR ATLC WATERS
  OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF
  PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

25/54




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 051839
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...AREA REMAINS QUITE DRY THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
ENTERED THE WATERS FROM THE EAST. THE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE MAY BE
TOO LATE TO GENERATE ANY OVER WESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
WILL BECOME SCATTERED ON NORTHWEST SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL WAVE...
MOST NOTICABLE AT 700 MB...OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATER TONIGHT.

GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL MEANS (1.85
INCHES AT TJSJ) ALL OF THIS WEEK SO WILL NOT RAISE PROBABILITY
ABOVE SCATTERED AT ANY TIME AND OFTEN WE MAY BE COMPLETELY WITHOUT
SHOWERS IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE VCSH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS TJMZ...TIST/TISX AND
TJSJ. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT...POSSIBLY
CAUSING VCSH ACROSS TIST/TISX AND TJSJ. WIND WILL REMAIN AT AROUND
15 KTS FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...
DECREASING SLIGHTLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO AROUND 10KTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 22 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGHOUT
REGION THOUGH SEAS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO SUBSIDE. MODELS
INDICATE THAT AREAS OF 7 FOOT SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO MON MORNING
AND SMALL CRAFT WAS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RAWS SITE AT CAMP SANTIAGO REPORTED 33 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 3PM WHILE WIND IS KICKING UP A LITTLE TOO.
RED FLAG CONTINUES BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING TOWARDS LATE
AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT BETTER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  81  91  79  89 /  40  40  10  30
STT  79  90  79  89 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH COASTAL
     PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHWEST-
     PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ST CROIX.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM AST MONDAY FOR ATLC WATERS
  OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF
  PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

25/54



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 051618
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1218 PM AST SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...THERE WERE NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST AS THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST. LITTLE TO NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING HOURS WERE
OBSERVED. HOWEVER CLOUDINESS IS INCREASING AND SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY. SCATTERED BRIEF SHOWERS STILL LOOK
LIKE A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT AS THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE LINGERS
UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND THE SAHARAN DUST DECREASES TONIGHT
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...THEN THE CONCENTRATION OF DUST SHOULD
INCREASE AGAIN THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN DECREASE ON TUESDAY AS A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES.

RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 5PM AST FOR THE SOUTH
COASTAL PLAINS WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE ALREADY DIPPED
UNDER 40 PERCENT.

&&


.AVIATION...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. VFR CONDS TODAY
WITH POSSIBLE VCSH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS TJMZ AND THEN ACROSS
TIST/TISX AS WELL AS TJSJ AND TJBQ IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND
WILL REMAIN AT AROUND 15-20 KTS FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS TODAY...DECREASING SLIGHTLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS SEVERAL
BEACHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE RIP CURRENT STATEMENTS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS...THE LOCAL
PASSAGES...AND THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE USVI.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM AST SUN JUL 5 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO FLORIDA BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL
CUT-OFF ON THURSDAY AND DRIFT TO NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...THE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE SUB-
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL BECOME DIVIDED AROUND 45 WEST LONGITUDE BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE
MID LATITUDE ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN BY MID WEEK AND THE STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL ABATE OVER THE AREA. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER FOLLOWING SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...THE FEW SHOWERS THAT FORMED WERE VERY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...EVEN OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OWING TO THE DRIER AIR
ALOFT AND THE STRONG WINDS AROUND THE INVERSION. THIS DRIER AIR
WILL SEE A WEAK MOISTURE INTRUSION VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAT
WILL LEAD TO A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WELL AS SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN THE VISIBILITIES AS THE SAHARAN DUST IS TEMPORARILY
PUSHED TO THE SOUTH.

PRESENTLY THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT APPROACHES ON MONDAY WITH A WEAK
TROUGH AHEAD OF IT IS NOT CARRYING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND SO EXPECT ONLY A LIMITED INCREASE IN THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION...AND THAT ONLY OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED
OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE COASTS OF PUERTO RICO WILL
LIKELY RECEIVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL THAN THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS. FROM MID WEEK...ON THE AXIS OF THE NEW TUTT FORMING TO
OUR NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA. WITH UNFAVORABLE
CONVERGENCE...OR AT LEAST A LACK OF DIVERGENCE...THUS HELD OVER
THE AREA IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE...RAINFALL CHANCES ARE HELD TO A
MINIMUM FOR MOST THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. ON FRIDAY LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES JUST ENOUGH TO YIELD A SLIGHT BUMP IN THE
POPS...BUT WILL NOT YIELD MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT WAVE AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE OCCURS
A WEEK FROM SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE AREA
LATER TODAY AS THE WIND SURGE FROM THE LAST TROPICAL WAVE ABATES
AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS DIVIDED AND WEAKENS.
WINDS TEND TO DIMINISH UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 06/02Z. SOME HAZE IS PRESENT BUT WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SHRA WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW MAY MANAGE TO
FORM IN WRN PR AFT 05/17Z TODAY. WINDS ALF WILL DIMINISH FROM ESE
20 TO 40 KNOTS TO GENERALLY ENE 10 TO 30 KTS TONIGHT. STRONGEST
WINDS NEAR FL070. SHRA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFT 05/17Z THROUGH
06/04Z.

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL ALL BE DOWN BY
MONDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

FIRE WEATHER...MODELS SHOW DIMINISHING MOISTURE AND WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS BETWEEN 3 AND 15 KFT TODAY...SUNDAY. LESS
CLOUDINESS...BUT CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A
HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER SITUATION AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO 35
TO 45 PERCENT AND WINDS EXCEED 18 MPH IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH COAST
OF PUERTO RICO. WILL RE-ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR 1100-1700
AST TODAY. MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  81  90  80 /  10  40  40  30
STT  89  79  89  77 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH COASTAL
     PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHWEST-
     PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ST CROIX.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ST.
     THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AST MONDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO
     17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI
     AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI
     VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ATLC
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

25/54



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 051618
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1218 PM AST SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...THERE WERE NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST AS THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST. LITTLE TO NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING HOURS WERE
OBSERVED. HOWEVER CLOUDINESS IS INCREASING AND SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY. SCATTERED BRIEF SHOWERS STILL LOOK
LIKE A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT AS THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE LINGERS
UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND THE SAHARAN DUST DECREASES TONIGHT
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...THEN THE CONCENTRATION OF DUST SHOULD
INCREASE AGAIN THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN DECREASE ON TUESDAY AS A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES.

RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 5PM AST FOR THE SOUTH
COASTAL PLAINS WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE ALREADY DIPPED
UNDER 40 PERCENT.

&&


.AVIATION...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. VFR CONDS TODAY
WITH POSSIBLE VCSH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS TJMZ AND THEN ACROSS
TIST/TISX AS WELL AS TJSJ AND TJBQ IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND
WILL REMAIN AT AROUND 15-20 KTS FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS TODAY...DECREASING SLIGHTLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS SEVERAL
BEACHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE RIP CURRENT STATEMENTS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS...THE LOCAL
PASSAGES...AND THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE USVI.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM AST SUN JUL 5 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO FLORIDA BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL
CUT-OFF ON THURSDAY AND DRIFT TO NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...THE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE SUB-
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL BECOME DIVIDED AROUND 45 WEST LONGITUDE BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE
MID LATITUDE ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN BY MID WEEK AND THE STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL ABATE OVER THE AREA. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER FOLLOWING SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...THE FEW SHOWERS THAT FORMED WERE VERY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...EVEN OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OWING TO THE DRIER AIR
ALOFT AND THE STRONG WINDS AROUND THE INVERSION. THIS DRIER AIR
WILL SEE A WEAK MOISTURE INTRUSION VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAT
WILL LEAD TO A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WELL AS SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN THE VISIBILITIES AS THE SAHARAN DUST IS TEMPORARILY
PUSHED TO THE SOUTH.

PRESENTLY THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT APPROACHES ON MONDAY WITH A WEAK
TROUGH AHEAD OF IT IS NOT CARRYING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND SO EXPECT ONLY A LIMITED INCREASE IN THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION...AND THAT ONLY OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED
OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE COASTS OF PUERTO RICO WILL
LIKELY RECEIVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL THAN THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS. FROM MID WEEK...ON THE AXIS OF THE NEW TUTT FORMING TO
OUR NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA. WITH UNFAVORABLE
CONVERGENCE...OR AT LEAST A LACK OF DIVERGENCE...THUS HELD OVER
THE AREA IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE...RAINFALL CHANCES ARE HELD TO A
MINIMUM FOR MOST THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. ON FRIDAY LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES JUST ENOUGH TO YIELD A SLIGHT BUMP IN THE
POPS...BUT WILL NOT YIELD MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT WAVE AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE OCCURS
A WEEK FROM SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE AREA
LATER TODAY AS THE WIND SURGE FROM THE LAST TROPICAL WAVE ABATES
AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS DIVIDED AND WEAKENS.
WINDS TEND TO DIMINISH UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 06/02Z. SOME HAZE IS PRESENT BUT WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SHRA WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW MAY MANAGE TO
FORM IN WRN PR AFT 05/17Z TODAY. WINDS ALF WILL DIMINISH FROM ESE
20 TO 40 KNOTS TO GENERALLY ENE 10 TO 30 KTS TONIGHT. STRONGEST
WINDS NEAR FL070. SHRA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFT 05/17Z THROUGH
06/04Z.

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL ALL BE DOWN BY
MONDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

FIRE WEATHER...MODELS SHOW DIMINISHING MOISTURE AND WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS BETWEEN 3 AND 15 KFT TODAY...SUNDAY. LESS
CLOUDINESS...BUT CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A
HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER SITUATION AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO 35
TO 45 PERCENT AND WINDS EXCEED 18 MPH IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH COAST
OF PUERTO RICO. WILL RE-ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR 1100-1700
AST TODAY. MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  81  90  80 /  10  40  40  30
STT  89  79  89  77 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH COASTAL
     PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHWEST-
     PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ST CROIX.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ST.
     THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AST MONDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO
     17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI
     AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI
     VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ATLC
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

25/54



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 051618
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1218 PM AST SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...THERE WERE NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST AS THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST. LITTLE TO NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING HOURS WERE
OBSERVED. HOWEVER CLOUDINESS IS INCREASING AND SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY. SCATTERED BRIEF SHOWERS STILL LOOK
LIKE A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT AS THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE LINGERS
UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND THE SAHARAN DUST DECREASES TONIGHT
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...THEN THE CONCENTRATION OF DUST SHOULD
INCREASE AGAIN THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN DECREASE ON TUESDAY AS A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES.

RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 5PM AST FOR THE SOUTH
COASTAL PLAINS WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE ALREADY DIPPED
UNDER 40 PERCENT.

&&


.AVIATION...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. VFR CONDS TODAY
WITH POSSIBLE VCSH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS TJMZ AND THEN ACROSS
TIST/TISX AS WELL AS TJSJ AND TJBQ IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND
WILL REMAIN AT AROUND 15-20 KTS FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS TODAY...DECREASING SLIGHTLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS SEVERAL
BEACHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE RIP CURRENT STATEMENTS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS...THE LOCAL
PASSAGES...AND THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE USVI.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM AST SUN JUL 5 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO FLORIDA BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL
CUT-OFF ON THURSDAY AND DRIFT TO NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...THE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE SUB-
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL BECOME DIVIDED AROUND 45 WEST LONGITUDE BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE
MID LATITUDE ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN BY MID WEEK AND THE STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL ABATE OVER THE AREA. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER FOLLOWING SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...THE FEW SHOWERS THAT FORMED WERE VERY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...EVEN OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OWING TO THE DRIER AIR
ALOFT AND THE STRONG WINDS AROUND THE INVERSION. THIS DRIER AIR
WILL SEE A WEAK MOISTURE INTRUSION VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAT
WILL LEAD TO A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WELL AS SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN THE VISIBILITIES AS THE SAHARAN DUST IS TEMPORARILY
PUSHED TO THE SOUTH.

PRESENTLY THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT APPROACHES ON MONDAY WITH A WEAK
TROUGH AHEAD OF IT IS NOT CARRYING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND SO EXPECT ONLY A LIMITED INCREASE IN THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION...AND THAT ONLY OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED
OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE COASTS OF PUERTO RICO WILL
LIKELY RECEIVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL THAN THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS. FROM MID WEEK...ON THE AXIS OF THE NEW TUTT FORMING TO
OUR NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA. WITH UNFAVORABLE
CONVERGENCE...OR AT LEAST A LACK OF DIVERGENCE...THUS HELD OVER
THE AREA IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE...RAINFALL CHANCES ARE HELD TO A
MINIMUM FOR MOST THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. ON FRIDAY LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES JUST ENOUGH TO YIELD A SLIGHT BUMP IN THE
POPS...BUT WILL NOT YIELD MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT WAVE AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE OCCURS
A WEEK FROM SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE AREA
LATER TODAY AS THE WIND SURGE FROM THE LAST TROPICAL WAVE ABATES
AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS DIVIDED AND WEAKENS.
WINDS TEND TO DIMINISH UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 06/02Z. SOME HAZE IS PRESENT BUT WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SHRA WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW MAY MANAGE TO
FORM IN WRN PR AFT 05/17Z TODAY. WINDS ALF WILL DIMINISH FROM ESE
20 TO 40 KNOTS TO GENERALLY ENE 10 TO 30 KTS TONIGHT. STRONGEST
WINDS NEAR FL070. SHRA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFT 05/17Z THROUGH
06/04Z.

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL ALL BE DOWN BY
MONDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

FIRE WEATHER...MODELS SHOW DIMINISHING MOISTURE AND WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS BETWEEN 3 AND 15 KFT TODAY...SUNDAY. LESS
CLOUDINESS...BUT CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A
HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER SITUATION AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO 35
TO 45 PERCENT AND WINDS EXCEED 18 MPH IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH COAST
OF PUERTO RICO. WILL RE-ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR 1100-1700
AST TODAY. MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  81  90  80 /  10  40  40  30
STT  89  79  89  77 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH COASTAL
     PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHWEST-
     PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ST CROIX.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ST.
     THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AST MONDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO
     17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI
     AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI
     VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ATLC
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

25/54



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 051618
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1218 PM AST SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...THERE WERE NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST AS THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST. LITTLE TO NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING HOURS WERE
OBSERVED. HOWEVER CLOUDINESS IS INCREASING AND SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY. SCATTERED BRIEF SHOWERS STILL LOOK
LIKE A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT AS THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE LINGERS
UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND THE SAHARAN DUST DECREASES TONIGHT
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...THEN THE CONCENTRATION OF DUST SHOULD
INCREASE AGAIN THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN DECREASE ON TUESDAY AS A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES.

RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 5PM AST FOR THE SOUTH
COASTAL PLAINS WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE ALREADY DIPPED
UNDER 40 PERCENT.

&&


.AVIATION...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. VFR CONDS TODAY
WITH POSSIBLE VCSH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS TJMZ AND THEN ACROSS
TIST/TISX AS WELL AS TJSJ AND TJBQ IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND
WILL REMAIN AT AROUND 15-20 KTS FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS TODAY...DECREASING SLIGHTLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS SEVERAL
BEACHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE RIP CURRENT STATEMENTS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS...THE LOCAL
PASSAGES...AND THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE USVI.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM AST SUN JUL 5 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO FLORIDA BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL
CUT-OFF ON THURSDAY AND DRIFT TO NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...THE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE SUB-
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL BECOME DIVIDED AROUND 45 WEST LONGITUDE BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE
MID LATITUDE ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN BY MID WEEK AND THE STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL ABATE OVER THE AREA. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER FOLLOWING SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...THE FEW SHOWERS THAT FORMED WERE VERY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...EVEN OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OWING TO THE DRIER AIR
ALOFT AND THE STRONG WINDS AROUND THE INVERSION. THIS DRIER AIR
WILL SEE A WEAK MOISTURE INTRUSION VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAT
WILL LEAD TO A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WELL AS SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN THE VISIBILITIES AS THE SAHARAN DUST IS TEMPORARILY
PUSHED TO THE SOUTH.

PRESENTLY THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT APPROACHES ON MONDAY WITH A WEAK
TROUGH AHEAD OF IT IS NOT CARRYING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND SO EXPECT ONLY A LIMITED INCREASE IN THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION...AND THAT ONLY OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED
OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE COASTS OF PUERTO RICO WILL
LIKELY RECEIVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL THAN THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS. FROM MID WEEK...ON THE AXIS OF THE NEW TUTT FORMING TO
OUR NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA. WITH UNFAVORABLE
CONVERGENCE...OR AT LEAST A LACK OF DIVERGENCE...THUS HELD OVER
THE AREA IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE...RAINFALL CHANCES ARE HELD TO A
MINIMUM FOR MOST THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. ON FRIDAY LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES JUST ENOUGH TO YIELD A SLIGHT BUMP IN THE
POPS...BUT WILL NOT YIELD MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT WAVE AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE OCCURS
A WEEK FROM SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE AREA
LATER TODAY AS THE WIND SURGE FROM THE LAST TROPICAL WAVE ABATES
AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS DIVIDED AND WEAKENS.
WINDS TEND TO DIMINISH UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 06/02Z. SOME HAZE IS PRESENT BUT WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SHRA WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW MAY MANAGE TO
FORM IN WRN PR AFT 05/17Z TODAY. WINDS ALF WILL DIMINISH FROM ESE
20 TO 40 KNOTS TO GENERALLY ENE 10 TO 30 KTS TONIGHT. STRONGEST
WINDS NEAR FL070. SHRA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFT 05/17Z THROUGH
06/04Z.

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL ALL BE DOWN BY
MONDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

FIRE WEATHER...MODELS SHOW DIMINISHING MOISTURE AND WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS BETWEEN 3 AND 15 KFT TODAY...SUNDAY. LESS
CLOUDINESS...BUT CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A
HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER SITUATION AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO 35
TO 45 PERCENT AND WINDS EXCEED 18 MPH IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH COAST
OF PUERTO RICO. WILL RE-ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR 1100-1700
AST TODAY. MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  81  90  80 /  10  40  40  30
STT  89  79  89  77 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH COASTAL
     PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHWEST-
     PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ST CROIX.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ST.
     THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AST MONDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO
     17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI
     AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI
     VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ATLC
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

25/54



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 051618
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1218 PM AST SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...THERE WERE NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST AS THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST. LITTLE TO NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING HOURS WERE
OBSERVED. HOWEVER CLOUDINESS IS INCREASING AND SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY. SCATTERED BRIEF SHOWERS STILL LOOK
LIKE A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT AS THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE LINGERS
UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND THE SAHARAN DUST DECREASES TONIGHT
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...THEN THE CONCENTRATION OF DUST SHOULD
INCREASE AGAIN THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN DECREASE ON TUESDAY AS A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES.

RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 5PM AST FOR THE SOUTH
COASTAL PLAINS WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE ALREADY DIPPED
UNDER 40 PERCENT.

&&


.AVIATION...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. VFR CONDS TODAY
WITH POSSIBLE VCSH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS TJMZ AND THEN ACROSS
TIST/TISX AS WELL AS TJSJ AND TJBQ IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND
WILL REMAIN AT AROUND 15-20 KTS FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS TODAY...DECREASING SLIGHTLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS SEVERAL
BEACHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE RIP CURRENT STATEMENTS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS...THE LOCAL
PASSAGES...AND THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE USVI.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM AST SUN JUL 5 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO FLORIDA BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL
CUT-OFF ON THURSDAY AND DRIFT TO NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...THE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE SUB-
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL BECOME DIVIDED AROUND 45 WEST LONGITUDE BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE
MID LATITUDE ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN BY MID WEEK AND THE STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL ABATE OVER THE AREA. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER FOLLOWING SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...THE FEW SHOWERS THAT FORMED WERE VERY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...EVEN OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OWING TO THE DRIER AIR
ALOFT AND THE STRONG WINDS AROUND THE INVERSION. THIS DRIER AIR
WILL SEE A WEAK MOISTURE INTRUSION VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAT
WILL LEAD TO A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WELL AS SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN THE VISIBILITIES AS THE SAHARAN DUST IS TEMPORARILY
PUSHED TO THE SOUTH.

PRESENTLY THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT APPROACHES ON MONDAY WITH A WEAK
TROUGH AHEAD OF IT IS NOT CARRYING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND SO EXPECT ONLY A LIMITED INCREASE IN THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION...AND THAT ONLY OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED
OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE COASTS OF PUERTO RICO WILL
LIKELY RECEIVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL THAN THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS. FROM MID WEEK...ON THE AXIS OF THE NEW TUTT FORMING TO
OUR NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA. WITH UNFAVORABLE
CONVERGENCE...OR AT LEAST A LACK OF DIVERGENCE...THUS HELD OVER
THE AREA IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE...RAINFALL CHANCES ARE HELD TO A
MINIMUM FOR MOST THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. ON FRIDAY LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES JUST ENOUGH TO YIELD A SLIGHT BUMP IN THE
POPS...BUT WILL NOT YIELD MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT WAVE AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE OCCURS
A WEEK FROM SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE AREA
LATER TODAY AS THE WIND SURGE FROM THE LAST TROPICAL WAVE ABATES
AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS DIVIDED AND WEAKENS.
WINDS TEND TO DIMINISH UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 06/02Z. SOME HAZE IS PRESENT BUT WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SHRA WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW MAY MANAGE TO
FORM IN WRN PR AFT 05/17Z TODAY. WINDS ALF WILL DIMINISH FROM ESE
20 TO 40 KNOTS TO GENERALLY ENE 10 TO 30 KTS TONIGHT. STRONGEST
WINDS NEAR FL070. SHRA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFT 05/17Z THROUGH
06/04Z.

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL ALL BE DOWN BY
MONDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

FIRE WEATHER...MODELS SHOW DIMINISHING MOISTURE AND WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS BETWEEN 3 AND 15 KFT TODAY...SUNDAY. LESS
CLOUDINESS...BUT CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A
HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER SITUATION AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO 35
TO 45 PERCENT AND WINDS EXCEED 18 MPH IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH COAST
OF PUERTO RICO. WILL RE-ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR 1100-1700
AST TODAY. MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  81  90  80 /  10  40  40  30
STT  89  79  89  77 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH COASTAL
     PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHWEST-
     PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ST CROIX.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ST.
     THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AST MONDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO
     17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI
     AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI
     VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ATLC
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

25/54




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 051618
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1218 PM AST SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...THERE WERE NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST AS THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST. LITTLE TO NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING HOURS WERE
OBSERVED. HOWEVER CLOUDINESS IS INCREASING AND SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY. SCATTERED BRIEF SHOWERS STILL LOOK
LIKE A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT AS THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE LINGERS
UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND THE SAHARAN DUST DECREASES TONIGHT
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...THEN THE CONCENTRATION OF DUST SHOULD
INCREASE AGAIN THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN DECREASE ON TUESDAY AS A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES.

RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 5PM AST FOR THE SOUTH
COASTAL PLAINS WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE ALREADY DIPPED
UNDER 40 PERCENT.

&&


.AVIATION...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. VFR CONDS TODAY
WITH POSSIBLE VCSH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS TJMZ AND THEN ACROSS
TIST/TISX AS WELL AS TJSJ AND TJBQ IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND
WILL REMAIN AT AROUND 15-20 KTS FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS TODAY...DECREASING SLIGHTLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS SEVERAL
BEACHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE RIP CURRENT STATEMENTS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS...THE LOCAL
PASSAGES...AND THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE USVI.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM AST SUN JUL 5 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO FLORIDA BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL
CUT-OFF ON THURSDAY AND DRIFT TO NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...THE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE SUB-
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL BECOME DIVIDED AROUND 45 WEST LONGITUDE BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE
MID LATITUDE ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN BY MID WEEK AND THE STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL ABATE OVER THE AREA. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER FOLLOWING SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...THE FEW SHOWERS THAT FORMED WERE VERY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...EVEN OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OWING TO THE DRIER AIR
ALOFT AND THE STRONG WINDS AROUND THE INVERSION. THIS DRIER AIR
WILL SEE A WEAK MOISTURE INTRUSION VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAT
WILL LEAD TO A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WELL AS SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN THE VISIBILITIES AS THE SAHARAN DUST IS TEMPORARILY
PUSHED TO THE SOUTH.

PRESENTLY THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT APPROACHES ON MONDAY WITH A WEAK
TROUGH AHEAD OF IT IS NOT CARRYING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND SO EXPECT ONLY A LIMITED INCREASE IN THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION...AND THAT ONLY OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED
OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE COASTS OF PUERTO RICO WILL
LIKELY RECEIVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL THAN THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS. FROM MID WEEK...ON THE AXIS OF THE NEW TUTT FORMING TO
OUR NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA. WITH UNFAVORABLE
CONVERGENCE...OR AT LEAST A LACK OF DIVERGENCE...THUS HELD OVER
THE AREA IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE...RAINFALL CHANCES ARE HELD TO A
MINIMUM FOR MOST THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. ON FRIDAY LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES JUST ENOUGH TO YIELD A SLIGHT BUMP IN THE
POPS...BUT WILL NOT YIELD MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT WAVE AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE OCCURS
A WEEK FROM SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE AREA
LATER TODAY AS THE WIND SURGE FROM THE LAST TROPICAL WAVE ABATES
AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS DIVIDED AND WEAKENS.
WINDS TEND TO DIMINISH UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 06/02Z. SOME HAZE IS PRESENT BUT WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SHRA WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW MAY MANAGE TO
FORM IN WRN PR AFT 05/17Z TODAY. WINDS ALF WILL DIMINISH FROM ESE
20 TO 40 KNOTS TO GENERALLY ENE 10 TO 30 KTS TONIGHT. STRONGEST
WINDS NEAR FL070. SHRA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFT 05/17Z THROUGH
06/04Z.

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL ALL BE DOWN BY
MONDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

FIRE WEATHER...MODELS SHOW DIMINISHING MOISTURE AND WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS BETWEEN 3 AND 15 KFT TODAY...SUNDAY. LESS
CLOUDINESS...BUT CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A
HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER SITUATION AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO 35
TO 45 PERCENT AND WINDS EXCEED 18 MPH IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH COAST
OF PUERTO RICO. WILL RE-ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR 1100-1700
AST TODAY. MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  81  90  80 /  10  40  40  30
STT  89  79  89  77 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH COASTAL
     PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHWEST-
     PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ST CROIX.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ST.
     THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AST MONDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO
     17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI
     AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI
     VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ATLC
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

25/54




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 051618
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1218 PM AST SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...THERE WERE NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST AS THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST. LITTLE TO NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING HOURS WERE
OBSERVED. HOWEVER CLOUDINESS IS INCREASING AND SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY. SCATTERED BRIEF SHOWERS STILL LOOK
LIKE A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT AS THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE LINGERS
UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND THE SAHARAN DUST DECREASES TONIGHT
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...THEN THE CONCENTRATION OF DUST SHOULD
INCREASE AGAIN THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN DECREASE ON TUESDAY AS A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES.

RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 5PM AST FOR THE SOUTH
COASTAL PLAINS WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE ALREADY DIPPED
UNDER 40 PERCENT.

&&


.AVIATION...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. VFR CONDS TODAY
WITH POSSIBLE VCSH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS TJMZ AND THEN ACROSS
TIST/TISX AS WELL AS TJSJ AND TJBQ IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND
WILL REMAIN AT AROUND 15-20 KTS FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS TODAY...DECREASING SLIGHTLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS SEVERAL
BEACHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE RIP CURRENT STATEMENTS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS...THE LOCAL
PASSAGES...AND THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE USVI.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM AST SUN JUL 5 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO FLORIDA BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL
CUT-OFF ON THURSDAY AND DRIFT TO NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...THE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE SUB-
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL BECOME DIVIDED AROUND 45 WEST LONGITUDE BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE
MID LATITUDE ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN BY MID WEEK AND THE STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL ABATE OVER THE AREA. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER FOLLOWING SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...THE FEW SHOWERS THAT FORMED WERE VERY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...EVEN OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OWING TO THE DRIER AIR
ALOFT AND THE STRONG WINDS AROUND THE INVERSION. THIS DRIER AIR
WILL SEE A WEAK MOISTURE INTRUSION VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAT
WILL LEAD TO A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WELL AS SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN THE VISIBILITIES AS THE SAHARAN DUST IS TEMPORARILY
PUSHED TO THE SOUTH.

PRESENTLY THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT APPROACHES ON MONDAY WITH A WEAK
TROUGH AHEAD OF IT IS NOT CARRYING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND SO EXPECT ONLY A LIMITED INCREASE IN THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION...AND THAT ONLY OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED
OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE COASTS OF PUERTO RICO WILL
LIKELY RECEIVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL THAN THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS. FROM MID WEEK...ON THE AXIS OF THE NEW TUTT FORMING TO
OUR NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA. WITH UNFAVORABLE
CONVERGENCE...OR AT LEAST A LACK OF DIVERGENCE...THUS HELD OVER
THE AREA IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE...RAINFALL CHANCES ARE HELD TO A
MINIMUM FOR MOST THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. ON FRIDAY LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES JUST ENOUGH TO YIELD A SLIGHT BUMP IN THE
POPS...BUT WILL NOT YIELD MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT WAVE AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE OCCURS
A WEEK FROM SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE AREA
LATER TODAY AS THE WIND SURGE FROM THE LAST TROPICAL WAVE ABATES
AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS DIVIDED AND WEAKENS.
WINDS TEND TO DIMINISH UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 06/02Z. SOME HAZE IS PRESENT BUT WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SHRA WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW MAY MANAGE TO
FORM IN WRN PR AFT 05/17Z TODAY. WINDS ALF WILL DIMINISH FROM ESE
20 TO 40 KNOTS TO GENERALLY ENE 10 TO 30 KTS TONIGHT. STRONGEST
WINDS NEAR FL070. SHRA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFT 05/17Z THROUGH
06/04Z.

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL ALL BE DOWN BY
MONDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

FIRE WEATHER...MODELS SHOW DIMINISHING MOISTURE AND WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS BETWEEN 3 AND 15 KFT TODAY...SUNDAY. LESS
CLOUDINESS...BUT CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A
HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER SITUATION AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO 35
TO 45 PERCENT AND WINDS EXCEED 18 MPH IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH COAST
OF PUERTO RICO. WILL RE-ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR 1100-1700
AST TODAY. MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  81  90  80 /  10  40  40  30
STT  89  79  89  77 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH COASTAL
     PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHWEST-
     PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ST CROIX.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ST.
     THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AST MONDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO
     17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI
     AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI
     VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ATLC
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

25/54




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 051618
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1218 PM AST SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...THERE WERE NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST AS THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST. LITTLE TO NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING HOURS WERE
OBSERVED. HOWEVER CLOUDINESS IS INCREASING AND SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY. SCATTERED BRIEF SHOWERS STILL LOOK
LIKE A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT AS THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE LINGERS
UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND THE SAHARAN DUST DECREASES TONIGHT
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...THEN THE CONCENTRATION OF DUST SHOULD
INCREASE AGAIN THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN DECREASE ON TUESDAY AS A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES.

RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 5PM AST FOR THE SOUTH
COASTAL PLAINS WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE ALREADY DIPPED
UNDER 40 PERCENT.

&&


.AVIATION...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. VFR CONDS TODAY
WITH POSSIBLE VCSH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS TJMZ AND THEN ACROSS
TIST/TISX AS WELL AS TJSJ AND TJBQ IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND
WILL REMAIN AT AROUND 15-20 KTS FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS TODAY...DECREASING SLIGHTLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS SEVERAL
BEACHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE RIP CURRENT STATEMENTS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS...THE LOCAL
PASSAGES...AND THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE USVI.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM AST SUN JUL 5 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO FLORIDA BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL
CUT-OFF ON THURSDAY AND DRIFT TO NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...THE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE SUB-
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL BECOME DIVIDED AROUND 45 WEST LONGITUDE BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE
MID LATITUDE ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN BY MID WEEK AND THE STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL ABATE OVER THE AREA. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER FOLLOWING SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...THE FEW SHOWERS THAT FORMED WERE VERY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...EVEN OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OWING TO THE DRIER AIR
ALOFT AND THE STRONG WINDS AROUND THE INVERSION. THIS DRIER AIR
WILL SEE A WEAK MOISTURE INTRUSION VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAT
WILL LEAD TO A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WELL AS SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN THE VISIBILITIES AS THE SAHARAN DUST IS TEMPORARILY
PUSHED TO THE SOUTH.

PRESENTLY THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT APPROACHES ON MONDAY WITH A WEAK
TROUGH AHEAD OF IT IS NOT CARRYING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND SO EXPECT ONLY A LIMITED INCREASE IN THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION...AND THAT ONLY OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED
OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE COASTS OF PUERTO RICO WILL
LIKELY RECEIVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL THAN THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS. FROM MID WEEK...ON THE AXIS OF THE NEW TUTT FORMING TO
OUR NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA. WITH UNFAVORABLE
CONVERGENCE...OR AT LEAST A LACK OF DIVERGENCE...THUS HELD OVER
THE AREA IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE...RAINFALL CHANCES ARE HELD TO A
MINIMUM FOR MOST THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. ON FRIDAY LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES JUST ENOUGH TO YIELD A SLIGHT BUMP IN THE
POPS...BUT WILL NOT YIELD MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT WAVE AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE OCCURS
A WEEK FROM SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE AREA
LATER TODAY AS THE WIND SURGE FROM THE LAST TROPICAL WAVE ABATES
AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS DIVIDED AND WEAKENS.
WINDS TEND TO DIMINISH UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 06/02Z. SOME HAZE IS PRESENT BUT WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SHRA WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW MAY MANAGE TO
FORM IN WRN PR AFT 05/17Z TODAY. WINDS ALF WILL DIMINISH FROM ESE
20 TO 40 KNOTS TO GENERALLY ENE 10 TO 30 KTS TONIGHT. STRONGEST
WINDS NEAR FL070. SHRA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFT 05/17Z THROUGH
06/04Z.

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL ALL BE DOWN BY
MONDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

FIRE WEATHER...MODELS SHOW DIMINISHING MOISTURE AND WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS BETWEEN 3 AND 15 KFT TODAY...SUNDAY. LESS
CLOUDINESS...BUT CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A
HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER SITUATION AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO 35
TO 45 PERCENT AND WINDS EXCEED 18 MPH IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH COAST
OF PUERTO RICO. WILL RE-ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR 1100-1700
AST TODAY. MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  81  90  80 /  10  40  40  30
STT  89  79  89  77 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH COASTAL
     PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHWEST-
     PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ST CROIX.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ST.
     THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AST MONDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO
     17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI
     AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI
     VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ATLC
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

25/54




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 050841
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
441 AM AST SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO FLORIDA BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL
CUT-OFF ON THURSDAY AND DRIFT TO NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...THE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE SUB-
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL BECOME DIVIDED AROUND 45 WEST LONGITUDE BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE
MID LATITUDE ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN BY MID WEEK AND THE STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL ABATE OVER THE AREA. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER FOLLOWING SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FEW SHOWERS THAT FORMED WERE VERY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...EVEN OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OWING TO THE DRIER AIR
ALOFT AND THE STRONG WINDS AROUND THE INVERSION. THIS DRIER AIR
WILL SEE A WEAK MOISTURE INTRUSION VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAT
WILL LEAD TO A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WELL AS SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN THE VISIBILITIES AS THE SAHARAN DUST IS TEMPORARILY
PUSHED TO THE SOUTH.

PRESENTLY THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT APPROACHES ON MONDAY WITH A WEAK
TROUGH AHEAD OF IT IS NOT CARRYING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND SO EXPECT ONLY A LIMITED INCREASE IN THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION...AND THAT ONLY OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED
OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE COASTS OF PUERTO RICO WILL
LIKELY RECEIVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL THAN THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS. FROM MID WEEK...ON THE AXIS OF THE NEW TUTT FORMING TO
OUR NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA. WITH UNFAVORABLE
CONVERGENCE...OR AT LEAST A LACK OF DIVERGENCE...THUS HELD OVER
THE AREAIN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE...RAINFALL CHANCES ARE HELD TO A
MINIMUM FOR MOST THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. ON FRIDAY LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES JUST ENOUGH TO YIELD A SLIGHT BUMP IN THE
POPS...BUT WILL NOT YIELD MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT WAVE AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE OCCURS
A WEEK FROM SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE AREA
LATER TODAY AS THE WIND SURGE FROM THE LAST TROPICAL WAVE ABATES
AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS DIVIDED AND WEAKENS.
WINDS TEND TO DIMINISH UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 06/02Z. SOME HAZE IS PRESENT BUT WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SHRA WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW MAY MANAGE TO
FORM IN WRN PR AFT 05/17Z TODAY. WINDS ALF WILL DIMINISH FROM ESE
20 TO 40 KNOTS TO GENERALLY ENE 10 TO 30 KTS TONIGHT. STRONGEST
WINDS NEAR FL070. SHRA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFT 05/17Z THROUGH
06/04Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL ALL BE DOWN BY
MONDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MODELS SHOW DIMINISHING MOISTURE AND WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS BETWEEN 3 AND 15 KFT TODAY...SUNDAY. LESS
CLOUDINESS...BUT CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A
HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER SITUATION AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO 35
TO 45 PERCENT AND WINDS EXCEED 18 MPH IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH COAST
OF PUERTO RICO. WILL RE-ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR 1100-1700
AST TODAY. MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  80  90  80 /  10  40  40  30
STT  89  79  89  77 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM AST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

VI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ST.
     THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND
 CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND
 EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AST MONDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO
     17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ATLC
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

10/12




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 050841
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
441 AM AST SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO FLORIDA BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL
CUT-OFF ON THURSDAY AND DRIFT TO NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...THE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE SUB-
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL BECOME DIVIDED AROUND 45 WEST LONGITUDE BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE
MID LATITUDE ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN BY MID WEEK AND THE STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL ABATE OVER THE AREA. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER FOLLOWING SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FEW SHOWERS THAT FORMED WERE VERY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...EVEN OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OWING TO THE DRIER AIR
ALOFT AND THE STRONG WINDS AROUND THE INVERSION. THIS DRIER AIR
WILL SEE A WEAK MOISTURE INTRUSION VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAT
WILL LEAD TO A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WELL AS SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN THE VISIBILITIES AS THE SAHARAN DUST IS TEMPORARILY
PUSHED TO THE SOUTH.

PRESENTLY THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT APPROACHES ON MONDAY WITH A WEAK
TROUGH AHEAD OF IT IS NOT CARRYING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND SO EXPECT ONLY A LIMITED INCREASE IN THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION...AND THAT ONLY OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED
OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE COASTS OF PUERTO RICO WILL
LIKELY RECEIVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL THAN THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS. FROM MID WEEK...ON THE AXIS OF THE NEW TUTT FORMING TO
OUR NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA. WITH UNFAVORABLE
CONVERGENCE...OR AT LEAST A LACK OF DIVERGENCE...THUS HELD OVER
THE AREAIN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE...RAINFALL CHANCES ARE HELD TO A
MINIMUM FOR MOST THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. ON FRIDAY LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES JUST ENOUGH TO YIELD A SLIGHT BUMP IN THE
POPS...BUT WILL NOT YIELD MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT WAVE AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE OCCURS
A WEEK FROM SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE AREA
LATER TODAY AS THE WIND SURGE FROM THE LAST TROPICAL WAVE ABATES
AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS DIVIDED AND WEAKENS.
WINDS TEND TO DIMINISH UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 06/02Z. SOME HAZE IS PRESENT BUT WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SHRA WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW MAY MANAGE TO
FORM IN WRN PR AFT 05/17Z TODAY. WINDS ALF WILL DIMINISH FROM ESE
20 TO 40 KNOTS TO GENERALLY ENE 10 TO 30 KTS TONIGHT. STRONGEST
WINDS NEAR FL070. SHRA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFT 05/17Z THROUGH
06/04Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL ALL BE DOWN BY
MONDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MODELS SHOW DIMINISHING MOISTURE AND WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS BETWEEN 3 AND 15 KFT TODAY...SUNDAY. LESS
CLOUDINESS...BUT CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A
HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER SITUATION AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO 35
TO 45 PERCENT AND WINDS EXCEED 18 MPH IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH COAST
OF PUERTO RICO. WILL RE-ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR 1100-1700
AST TODAY. MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  80  90  80 /  10  40  40  30
STT  89  79  89  77 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM AST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

VI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ST.
     THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND
 CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND
 EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AST MONDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO
     17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ATLC
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

10/12



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 050119
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
919 PM AST SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HAZY
SKIES AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. NOT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENT IS EXPECTED IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SHRA
WILL BE ISOLD AT MOST AND CIGS RATHER HIGH. WIND BLW FL180 E 24-38
KT BCMG ENE 20-32 KT SUN AND E 14-26 KT SUN NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO SUN BUT
FINALLY SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT BY MON. SEAS ACCORDINGLY WILL DROP MORE
INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE...AND LAST WELL INTO THIS NEXT WEEK.

&&

POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS APPEARS HIGHER ON SUNDAY AS
WIND FLOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY MORE OFFSHORE AND DOWN THE
MOUNTAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS. SO FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR
LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM AST SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...DRY ADVECTION KILLED OFF AN ALREADY SLIM CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR. GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE
WATER FALLING BELOW 1.3 INCHES TONIGHT/SUNDAY THOUGH A BRIEF
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT MIGHT BRING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS. NEXT
DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO BE TUE AS A TROPICAL WAVE WILL QUICKLY BRUSH
BY THE ISLANDS.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY AS SHRA WILL BE ISOLD AT MOST AND
CIGS RATHER HIGH. WIND BLW FL180 E 24-38 KT BCMG ENE 20-32 KT SUN
AND E 14-26 KT SUN NITE.

MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO SUN BUT
FINALLY SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT BY MON. SEAS ACCORDINGLY WILL DROP MORE
INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE...AND LAST WELL INTO THIS NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT CAMP SANTIAGO AT 3PM WAS AT
40 PERCENT AND STILL QUITE BREEZY. POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS APPEARS HIGHER ON SUNDAY AS WIND FLOW WILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY MORE OFFSHORE AND DOWN THE MOUNTAIN IN SOME
LOCATIONS. SO FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR LATE MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  91 /  10  10  40  40
STT  80  90  79  89 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

VI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST.
     JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND
     CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES
     AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AST MONDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO
     17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

72/10



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 050119
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
919 PM AST SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HAZY
SKIES AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. NOT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENT IS EXPECTED IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SHRA
WILL BE ISOLD AT MOST AND CIGS RATHER HIGH. WIND BLW FL180 E 24-38
KT BCMG ENE 20-32 KT SUN AND E 14-26 KT SUN NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO SUN BUT
FINALLY SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT BY MON. SEAS ACCORDINGLY WILL DROP MORE
INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE...AND LAST WELL INTO THIS NEXT WEEK.

&&

POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS APPEARS HIGHER ON SUNDAY AS
WIND FLOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY MORE OFFSHORE AND DOWN THE
MOUNTAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS. SO FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR
LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM AST SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...DRY ADVECTION KILLED OFF AN ALREADY SLIM CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR. GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE
WATER FALLING BELOW 1.3 INCHES TONIGHT/SUNDAY THOUGH A BRIEF
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT MIGHT BRING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS. NEXT
DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO BE TUE AS A TROPICAL WAVE WILL QUICKLY BRUSH
BY THE ISLANDS.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY AS SHRA WILL BE ISOLD AT MOST AND
CIGS RATHER HIGH. WIND BLW FL180 E 24-38 KT BCMG ENE 20-32 KT SUN
AND E 14-26 KT SUN NITE.

MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO SUN BUT
FINALLY SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT BY MON. SEAS ACCORDINGLY WILL DROP MORE
INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE...AND LAST WELL INTO THIS NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT CAMP SANTIAGO AT 3PM WAS AT
40 PERCENT AND STILL QUITE BREEZY. POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS APPEARS HIGHER ON SUNDAY AS WIND FLOW WILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY MORE OFFSHORE AND DOWN THE MOUNTAIN IN SOME
LOCATIONS. SO FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR LATE MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  91 /  10  10  40  40
STT  80  90  79  89 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

VI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST.
     JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND
     CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES
     AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AST MONDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO
     17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

72/10




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 050119
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
919 PM AST SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HAZY
SKIES AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. NOT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENT IS EXPECTED IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SHRA
WILL BE ISOLD AT MOST AND CIGS RATHER HIGH. WIND BLW FL180 E 24-38
KT BCMG ENE 20-32 KT SUN AND E 14-26 KT SUN NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO SUN BUT
FINALLY SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT BY MON. SEAS ACCORDINGLY WILL DROP MORE
INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE...AND LAST WELL INTO THIS NEXT WEEK.

&&

POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS APPEARS HIGHER ON SUNDAY AS
WIND FLOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY MORE OFFSHORE AND DOWN THE
MOUNTAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS. SO FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR
LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM AST SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...DRY ADVECTION KILLED OFF AN ALREADY SLIM CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR. GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE
WATER FALLING BELOW 1.3 INCHES TONIGHT/SUNDAY THOUGH A BRIEF
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT MIGHT BRING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS. NEXT
DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO BE TUE AS A TROPICAL WAVE WILL QUICKLY BRUSH
BY THE ISLANDS.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY AS SHRA WILL BE ISOLD AT MOST AND
CIGS RATHER HIGH. WIND BLW FL180 E 24-38 KT BCMG ENE 20-32 KT SUN
AND E 14-26 KT SUN NITE.

MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO SUN BUT
FINALLY SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT BY MON. SEAS ACCORDINGLY WILL DROP MORE
INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE...AND LAST WELL INTO THIS NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT CAMP SANTIAGO AT 3PM WAS AT
40 PERCENT AND STILL QUITE BREEZY. POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS APPEARS HIGHER ON SUNDAY AS WIND FLOW WILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY MORE OFFSHORE AND DOWN THE MOUNTAIN IN SOME
LOCATIONS. SO FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR LATE MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  91 /  10  10  40  40
STT  80  90  79  89 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

VI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST.
     JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND
     CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES
     AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AST MONDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO
     17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

72/10



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041926
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
326 PM AST SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...DRY ADVECTION KILLED OFF AN ALREADY SLIM CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR. GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE
WATER FALLING BELOW 1.3 INCHES TONIGHT/SUNDAY THOUGH A BRIEF
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT MIGHT BRING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS. NEXT
DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO BE TUE AS A TROPICAL WAVE WILL QUICKLY BRUSH
BY THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY AS SHRA WILL BE ISOLD AT MOST AND
CIGS RATHER HIGH. WIND BLW FL180 E 24-38 KT BCMG ENE 20-32 KT SUN
AND E 14-26 KT SUN NITE.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO SUN BUT
FINALLY SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT BY MON. SEAS ACCORDINGLY WILL DROP MORE
INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE...AND LAST WELL INTO THIS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT CAMP SANTIAGO AT 3PM WAS AT
40 PERCENT AND STILL QUITE BREEZY. POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS APPEARS HIGHER ON SUNDAY AS WIND FLOW WILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY MORE OFFSHORE AND DOWN THE MOUNTAIN IN SOME
LOCATIONS. SO FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR LATE MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  91 /  10  10  40  40
STT  80  90  79  89 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH COASTAL
     PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

VI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST.
     JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AST MONDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO
     17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

25/54



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041926
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
326 PM AST SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...DRY ADVECTION KILLED OFF AN ALREADY SLIM CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR. GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE
WATER FALLING BELOW 1.3 INCHES TONIGHT/SUNDAY THOUGH A BRIEF
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT MIGHT BRING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS. NEXT
DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO BE TUE AS A TROPICAL WAVE WILL QUICKLY BRUSH
BY THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY AS SHRA WILL BE ISOLD AT MOST AND
CIGS RATHER HIGH. WIND BLW FL180 E 24-38 KT BCMG ENE 20-32 KT SUN
AND E 14-26 KT SUN NITE.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO SUN BUT
FINALLY SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT BY MON. SEAS ACCORDINGLY WILL DROP MORE
INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE...AND LAST WELL INTO THIS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT CAMP SANTIAGO AT 3PM WAS AT
40 PERCENT AND STILL QUITE BREEZY. POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS APPEARS HIGHER ON SUNDAY AS WIND FLOW WILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY MORE OFFSHORE AND DOWN THE MOUNTAIN IN SOME
LOCATIONS. SO FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR LATE MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  91 /  10  10  40  40
STT  80  90  79  89 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH COASTAL
     PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

VI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST.
     JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AST MONDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO
     17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

25/54



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041926
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
326 PM AST SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...DRY ADVECTION KILLED OFF AN ALREADY SLIM CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR. GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE
WATER FALLING BELOW 1.3 INCHES TONIGHT/SUNDAY THOUGH A BRIEF
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT MIGHT BRING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS. NEXT
DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO BE TUE AS A TROPICAL WAVE WILL QUICKLY BRUSH
BY THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY AS SHRA WILL BE ISOLD AT MOST AND
CIGS RATHER HIGH. WIND BLW FL180 E 24-38 KT BCMG ENE 20-32 KT SUN
AND E 14-26 KT SUN NITE.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO SUN BUT
FINALLY SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT BY MON. SEAS ACCORDINGLY WILL DROP MORE
INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE...AND LAST WELL INTO THIS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT CAMP SANTIAGO AT 3PM WAS AT
40 PERCENT AND STILL QUITE BREEZY. POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS APPEARS HIGHER ON SUNDAY AS WIND FLOW WILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY MORE OFFSHORE AND DOWN THE MOUNTAIN IN SOME
LOCATIONS. SO FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR LATE MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  91 /  10  10  40  40
STT  80  90  79  89 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH COASTAL
     PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

VI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST.
     JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AST MONDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO
     17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

25/54



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041926
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
326 PM AST SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...DRY ADVECTION KILLED OFF AN ALREADY SLIM CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR. GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE
WATER FALLING BELOW 1.3 INCHES TONIGHT/SUNDAY THOUGH A BRIEF
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT MIGHT BRING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS. NEXT
DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO BE TUE AS A TROPICAL WAVE WILL QUICKLY BRUSH
BY THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY AS SHRA WILL BE ISOLD AT MOST AND
CIGS RATHER HIGH. WIND BLW FL180 E 24-38 KT BCMG ENE 20-32 KT SUN
AND E 14-26 KT SUN NITE.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO SUN BUT
FINALLY SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT BY MON. SEAS ACCORDINGLY WILL DROP MORE
INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE...AND LAST WELL INTO THIS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT CAMP SANTIAGO AT 3PM WAS AT
40 PERCENT AND STILL QUITE BREEZY. POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS APPEARS HIGHER ON SUNDAY AS WIND FLOW WILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY MORE OFFSHORE AND DOWN THE MOUNTAIN IN SOME
LOCATIONS. SO FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR LATE MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  91 /  10  10  40  40
STT  80  90  79  89 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH COASTAL
     PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

VI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST.
     JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AST MONDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO
     17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

25/54



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041612
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1212 PM AST SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE NECESSARY AS
THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS ARE IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS DRY AIR WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN SEEMS TO BE TONIGHT AS THE INVERSION IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY...HOWEVER...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LOW TONIGHT AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE AT AROUND THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ACCORDING TO CLIMATOLOGY.

BREEZY AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
AT AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
TODAY.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT DUE TO SEAS UP
TO 7 FEET. IT IS BREEZY WITH WINDS AT AROUND 20 KNOTS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM AST SAT JUL 4 2015/

SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A STRONG LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW LOCATED ALONG LONGITUDE
45 WEST OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

DISCUSSION...THE LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE...NOW LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
PRODUCED SOME PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THEM MOVED INLAND BUT WERE
LIGHT AND BRIEF AS THEY INTERACTED WITH THE LAND BREEZE
FLUCTUATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THE BRISK EASTERLIES COULD
STILL BRING PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN
PR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR TODAY...INDEPENDENCE DAY.
HOWEVER...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN AS THE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER FILLS IN OVER THE REGION TODAY THRU THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF DUST PARTICLES WILL LIMIT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER
SOME SHOWERS MAY FORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED ALONG LONGITUDE 45 WEST OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY.
THE WAVE COULD BRING AN INCREASE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THRU 05/06Z. SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER TIST AND TJSJ
TIL 04/15Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT. SHRA WILL DIMINISH
FROM EAST TO WEST AFT 04/15Z AS SAHARAN DUST INCREASES. VSBYS TO
REMAIN P6SM BUT LESS THAN 12SM.

FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING (RFWSJU) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL
PLAINS AND MONA ISLANDS TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE RFWSJU FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT THIS MATTER.

MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL CREATE
BREEZY AND CHOPPY SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. MARINERS CAN
EXPECT SEAS UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
PASSAGES. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUES IN EFFECT.
IN ADDITION...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS BETWEEN
15 AND 20 KNOTS. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  80 /  20  20  20  40
STT  90  79  90  78 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH COASTAL
     PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHWEST-
     PONCE AND VICINITY-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ST CROIX.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST.
     JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

25/54



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041612
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1212 PM AST SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE NECESSARY AS
THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS ARE IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS DRY AIR WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN SEEMS TO BE TONIGHT AS THE INVERSION IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY...HOWEVER...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LOW TONIGHT AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE AT AROUND THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ACCORDING TO CLIMATOLOGY.

BREEZY AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
AT AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
TODAY.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT DUE TO SEAS UP
TO 7 FEET. IT IS BREEZY WITH WINDS AT AROUND 20 KNOTS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM AST SAT JUL 4 2015/

SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A STRONG LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW LOCATED ALONG LONGITUDE
45 WEST OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

DISCUSSION...THE LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE...NOW LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
PRODUCED SOME PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THEM MOVED INLAND BUT WERE
LIGHT AND BRIEF AS THEY INTERACTED WITH THE LAND BREEZE
FLUCTUATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THE BRISK EASTERLIES COULD
STILL BRING PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN
PR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR TODAY...INDEPENDENCE DAY.
HOWEVER...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN AS THE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER FILLS IN OVER THE REGION TODAY THRU THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF DUST PARTICLES WILL LIMIT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER
SOME SHOWERS MAY FORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED ALONG LONGITUDE 45 WEST OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY.
THE WAVE COULD BRING AN INCREASE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THRU 05/06Z. SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER TIST AND TJSJ
TIL 04/15Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT. SHRA WILL DIMINISH
FROM EAST TO WEST AFT 04/15Z AS SAHARAN DUST INCREASES. VSBYS TO
REMAIN P6SM BUT LESS THAN 12SM.

FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING (RFWSJU) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL
PLAINS AND MONA ISLANDS TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE RFWSJU FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT THIS MATTER.

MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL CREATE
BREEZY AND CHOPPY SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. MARINERS CAN
EXPECT SEAS UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
PASSAGES. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUES IN EFFECT.
IN ADDITION...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS BETWEEN
15 AND 20 KNOTS. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  80 /  20  20  20  40
STT  90  79  90  78 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH COASTAL
     PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHWEST-
     PONCE AND VICINITY-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ST CROIX.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST.
     JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

25/54



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041612
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1212 PM AST SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE NECESSARY AS
THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS ARE IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS DRY AIR WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN SEEMS TO BE TONIGHT AS THE INVERSION IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY...HOWEVER...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LOW TONIGHT AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE AT AROUND THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ACCORDING TO CLIMATOLOGY.

BREEZY AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
AT AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
TODAY.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT DUE TO SEAS UP
TO 7 FEET. IT IS BREEZY WITH WINDS AT AROUND 20 KNOTS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM AST SAT JUL 4 2015/

SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A STRONG LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW LOCATED ALONG LONGITUDE
45 WEST OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

DISCUSSION...THE LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE...NOW LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
PRODUCED SOME PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THEM MOVED INLAND BUT WERE
LIGHT AND BRIEF AS THEY INTERACTED WITH THE LAND BREEZE
FLUCTUATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THE BRISK EASTERLIES COULD
STILL BRING PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN
PR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR TODAY...INDEPENDENCE DAY.
HOWEVER...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN AS THE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER FILLS IN OVER THE REGION TODAY THRU THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF DUST PARTICLES WILL LIMIT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER
SOME SHOWERS MAY FORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED ALONG LONGITUDE 45 WEST OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY.
THE WAVE COULD BRING AN INCREASE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THRU 05/06Z. SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER TIST AND TJSJ
TIL 04/15Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT. SHRA WILL DIMINISH
FROM EAST TO WEST AFT 04/15Z AS SAHARAN DUST INCREASES. VSBYS TO
REMAIN P6SM BUT LESS THAN 12SM.

FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING (RFWSJU) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL
PLAINS AND MONA ISLANDS TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE RFWSJU FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT THIS MATTER.

MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL CREATE
BREEZY AND CHOPPY SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. MARINERS CAN
EXPECT SEAS UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
PASSAGES. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUES IN EFFECT.
IN ADDITION...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS BETWEEN
15 AND 20 KNOTS. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  80 /  20  20  20  40
STT  90  79  90  78 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH COASTAL
     PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHWEST-
     PONCE AND VICINITY-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ST CROIX.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST.
     JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

25/54



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041612
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1212 PM AST SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE NECESSARY AS
THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS ARE IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS DRY AIR WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN SEEMS TO BE TONIGHT AS THE INVERSION IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY...HOWEVER...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LOW TONIGHT AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE AT AROUND THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ACCORDING TO CLIMATOLOGY.

BREEZY AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
AT AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
TODAY.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT DUE TO SEAS UP
TO 7 FEET. IT IS BREEZY WITH WINDS AT AROUND 20 KNOTS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM AST SAT JUL 4 2015/

SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A STRONG LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW LOCATED ALONG LONGITUDE
45 WEST OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

DISCUSSION...THE LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE...NOW LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
PRODUCED SOME PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THEM MOVED INLAND BUT WERE
LIGHT AND BRIEF AS THEY INTERACTED WITH THE LAND BREEZE
FLUCTUATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THE BRISK EASTERLIES COULD
STILL BRING PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN
PR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR TODAY...INDEPENDENCE DAY.
HOWEVER...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN AS THE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER FILLS IN OVER THE REGION TODAY THRU THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF DUST PARTICLES WILL LIMIT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER
SOME SHOWERS MAY FORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED ALONG LONGITUDE 45 WEST OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY.
THE WAVE COULD BRING AN INCREASE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THRU 05/06Z. SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER TIST AND TJSJ
TIL 04/15Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT. SHRA WILL DIMINISH
FROM EAST TO WEST AFT 04/15Z AS SAHARAN DUST INCREASES. VSBYS TO
REMAIN P6SM BUT LESS THAN 12SM.

FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING (RFWSJU) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL
PLAINS AND MONA ISLANDS TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE RFWSJU FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT THIS MATTER.

MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL CREATE
BREEZY AND CHOPPY SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. MARINERS CAN
EXPECT SEAS UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
PASSAGES. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUES IN EFFECT.
IN ADDITION...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS BETWEEN
15 AND 20 KNOTS. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  80 /  20  20  20  40
STT  90  79  90  78 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH COASTAL
     PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHWEST-
     PONCE AND VICINITY-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ST CROIX.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST.
     JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

25/54



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041011
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
611 AM AST SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A STRONG LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW LOCATED ALONG LONGITUDE
45 WEST OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE...NOW LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
PRODUCED SOME PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THEM MOVED INLAND BUT WERE
LIGHT AND BRIEF AS THEY INTERACTED WITH THE LAND BREEZE
FLUCTUATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THE BRISK EASTERLIES COULD
STILL BRING PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN
PR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR TODAY...INDEPENDENCE DAY.
HOWEVER...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN AS THE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER FILLS IN OVER THE REGION TODAY THRU THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF DUST PARTICLES WILL LIMIT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER
SOME SHOWERS MAY FORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED ALONG LONGITUDE 45 WEST OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY.
THE WAVE COULD BRING AN INCREASE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THRU 05/06Z. SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER TIST AND TJSJ
TIL 04/15Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT. SHRA WILL DIMINISH
FROM EAST TO WEST AFT 04/15Z AS SAHARAN DUST INCREASES. VSBYS TO
REMAIN P6SM BUT LESS THAN 12SM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING (RFWSJU) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL
PLAINS AND MONA ISLANDS TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE RFWSJU FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT THIS MATTER.

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL CREATE
BREEZY AND CHOPPY SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. MARINERS CAN
EXPECT SEAS UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
PASSAGES. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUES IN EFFECT.
IN ADDITION...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS BETWEEN
15 AND 20 KNOTS. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  80 /  20  20  20  40
STT  90  79  90  78 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM AST THIS
     EVENING FOR SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

VI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST.
     JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
     NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

12/27




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041011
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
611 AM AST SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A STRONG LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW LOCATED ALONG LONGITUDE
45 WEST OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE...NOW LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
PRODUCED SOME PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THEM MOVED INLAND BUT WERE
LIGHT AND BRIEF AS THEY INTERACTED WITH THE LAND BREEZE
FLUCTUATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THE BRISK EASTERLIES COULD
STILL BRING PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN
PR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR TODAY...INDEPENDENCE DAY.
HOWEVER...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN AS THE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER FILLS IN OVER THE REGION TODAY THRU THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF DUST PARTICLES WILL LIMIT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER
SOME SHOWERS MAY FORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED ALONG LONGITUDE 45 WEST OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY.
THE WAVE COULD BRING AN INCREASE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THRU 05/06Z. SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER TIST AND TJSJ
TIL 04/15Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT. SHRA WILL DIMINISH
FROM EAST TO WEST AFT 04/15Z AS SAHARAN DUST INCREASES. VSBYS TO
REMAIN P6SM BUT LESS THAN 12SM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING (RFWSJU) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL
PLAINS AND MONA ISLANDS TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE RFWSJU FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT THIS MATTER.

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL CREATE
BREEZY AND CHOPPY SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. MARINERS CAN
EXPECT SEAS UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
PASSAGES. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUES IN EFFECT.
IN ADDITION...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS BETWEEN
15 AND 20 KNOTS. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  80 /  20  20  20  40
STT  90  79  90  78 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM AST THIS
     EVENING FOR SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

VI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST.
     JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
     NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

12/27



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041011
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
611 AM AST SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A STRONG LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW LOCATED ALONG LONGITUDE
45 WEST OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE...NOW LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
PRODUCED SOME PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THEM MOVED INLAND BUT WERE
LIGHT AND BRIEF AS THEY INTERACTED WITH THE LAND BREEZE
FLUCTUATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THE BRISK EASTERLIES COULD
STILL BRING PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN
PR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR TODAY...INDEPENDENCE DAY.
HOWEVER...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN AS THE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER FILLS IN OVER THE REGION TODAY THRU THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF DUST PARTICLES WILL LIMIT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER
SOME SHOWERS MAY FORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED ALONG LONGITUDE 45 WEST OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY.
THE WAVE COULD BRING AN INCREASE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THRU 05/06Z. SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER TIST AND TJSJ
TIL 04/15Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT. SHRA WILL DIMINISH
FROM EAST TO WEST AFT 04/15Z AS SAHARAN DUST INCREASES. VSBYS TO
REMAIN P6SM BUT LESS THAN 12SM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING (RFWSJU) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL
PLAINS AND MONA ISLANDS TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE RFWSJU FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT THIS MATTER.

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL CREATE
BREEZY AND CHOPPY SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. MARINERS CAN
EXPECT SEAS UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
PASSAGES. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUES IN EFFECT.
IN ADDITION...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS BETWEEN
15 AND 20 KNOTS. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  80 /  20  20  20  40
STT  90  79  90  78 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM AST THIS
     EVENING FOR SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

VI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST.
     JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
     NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

12/27



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041011
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
611 AM AST SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A STRONG LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW LOCATED ALONG LONGITUDE
45 WEST OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE...NOW LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
PRODUCED SOME PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THEM MOVED INLAND BUT WERE
LIGHT AND BRIEF AS THEY INTERACTED WITH THE LAND BREEZE
FLUCTUATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THE BRISK EASTERLIES COULD
STILL BRING PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN
PR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR TODAY...INDEPENDENCE DAY.
HOWEVER...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN AS THE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER FILLS IN OVER THE REGION TODAY THRU THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF DUST PARTICLES WILL LIMIT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER
SOME SHOWERS MAY FORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED ALONG LONGITUDE 45 WEST OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY.
THE WAVE COULD BRING AN INCREASE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THRU 05/06Z. SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER TIST AND TJSJ
TIL 04/15Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT. SHRA WILL DIMINISH
FROM EAST TO WEST AFT 04/15Z AS SAHARAN DUST INCREASES. VSBYS TO
REMAIN P6SM BUT LESS THAN 12SM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING (RFWSJU) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL
PLAINS AND MONA ISLANDS TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE RFWSJU FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT THIS MATTER.

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL CREATE
BREEZY AND CHOPPY SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. MARINERS CAN
EXPECT SEAS UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
PASSAGES. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUES IN EFFECT.
IN ADDITION...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS BETWEEN
15 AND 20 KNOTS. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  80 /  20  20  20  40
STT  90  79  90  78 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM AST THIS
     EVENING FOR SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

VI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST.
     JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
     NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

12/27



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041011
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
611 AM AST SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A STRONG LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW LOCATED ALONG LONGITUDE
45 WEST OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE...NOW LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
PRODUCED SOME PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THEM MOVED INLAND BUT WERE
LIGHT AND BRIEF AS THEY INTERACTED WITH THE LAND BREEZE
FLUCTUATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THE BRISK EASTERLIES COULD
STILL BRING PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN
PR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR TODAY...INDEPENDENCE DAY.
HOWEVER...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN AS THE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER FILLS IN OVER THE REGION TODAY THRU THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF DUST PARTICLES WILL LIMIT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER
SOME SHOWERS MAY FORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED ALONG LONGITUDE 45 WEST OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY.
THE WAVE COULD BRING AN INCREASE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THRU 05/06Z. SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER TIST AND TJSJ
TIL 04/15Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT. SHRA WILL DIMINISH
FROM EAST TO WEST AFT 04/15Z AS SAHARAN DUST INCREASES. VSBYS TO
REMAIN P6SM BUT LESS THAN 12SM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING (RFWSJU) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL
PLAINS AND MONA ISLANDS TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE RFWSJU FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT THIS MATTER.

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL CREATE
BREEZY AND CHOPPY SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. MARINERS CAN
EXPECT SEAS UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
PASSAGES. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUES IN EFFECT.
IN ADDITION...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS BETWEEN
15 AND 20 KNOTS. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  80 /  20  20  20  40
STT  90  79  90  78 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM AST THIS
     EVENING FOR SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

VI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST.
     JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
     NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

12/27



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