Home > Products > State Listing > U.S. Virgin Islands Data
Latest:
 AFDSJU |
  [top]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 311903
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEEP
CUTOFF LOW EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/CONTROL
CARIBBEAN MID NEXT WEEK AND BRING COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON OVER PUERTO RICO...MAINLY
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED
OVER THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES OBSERVED IN SOME AREAS. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WAS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION OF A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
EFFECTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY
THE SOUTHEAST...EAST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH AT
LEAST 7 PM AST. FOR TONIGHT...A DRY AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL AFFECTS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL PROMOTE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...A RETURN TO A WETTER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TJSJ...TJBQ...TJMZ
AND TIST UNTIL AT LEAST 31/22Z WITH CIGS AROUND FL020-040 AND
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY TO AROUND 4 MILES AS THE ACTIVITY AFFECTS
THESE TERMINALS. THE REST OF THE LOCAL FLYING AREA WILL REMAINS
MOSTLY VFR WITH ONLY VCSH. FOR TOMORROW...AFTERNOON CONVECTION
EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS NW-PR WHICH MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT TJBQ AND TJMZ
BETWEEN 01/18Z AND 01/22Z.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 14 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  80  88  81  87 /   0  10  10  10
STT  82  89  82  88 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/71






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 311523
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1123 AM AST FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION
AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO INDUCE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING
THE METROPOLITAN AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT IMPROVE IN
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF
CORDILLERA CENTRAL...AFFECTING TJSJ...TJMZ AND TJBQ WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 31/22Z. CIGS AROUND
FL020-040 AND REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY TO AROUND 3 MILES AS THE
ACTIVITY AFFECTS THESE TERMINALS...OTHERWISE VCSH/VCTS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOCAL FLYING AREA.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH OR SSE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH SAT. TRADES
RETURN SAT NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN UP TO 20 KT. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT
THROUGH SUN THEN BUILD 5-7 FT BY MON NIGHT IN NNW SWELLS AND ENE
WIND WAVES. THIS LIKELY TO RESULT IN ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS WITH
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON ATLC AND NW PR BEACHES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM AST FRI OCT 31 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEEP
CUTOFF LOW EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/CNTRL
CARIBBEAN MID NEXT WEEK AND BRING COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

DISCUSSION...DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE USVI AND ADJANCENT WATERS
IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WITH CLEARING ONGOING OVER WRN PR. TROF AXIS WILL
PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT RISING RAPIDLY
LEADING TO IMPROVING WX CONDITIONS. SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION
STILL POSSIBLE OVR NRN PR THIS AFTERNOON BUT AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
FURTHER DRYING EXPECTED.

ON MONDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL FALL SHARPLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CUTS OFF OVR THE SW ATLC. 31/00Z ECMWF MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
GFS SHOWING AN ANOMALOUS DEEP CUTOFF OVR THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN.
COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS WILL
LEAD TO RAPID MOISTURE ADVECTION MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE EVENING
WITH SHOWERS INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVR ERN PR DURING THE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AND WRN PR DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK WITH COOLER TEMPS/LOWER HEIGHTS IS FCST BY GLOBAL MODELS
NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING A SIG RELIEF TO THE HOT WEATHER OF THIS WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO FILL ON WED WITH WX CONDITIONS IMPROVING
SOMEWHAT ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST FOR SVRL MORE DAYS.

AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA AROUND THE USVI WILL CAUSE TEMPO MVFR CONDS
WITH AT TISX AND TIST TIL 31/12Z...WITH CIGS AROUND FL020-040 AND
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY TO AROUND 3 MILES AS THE ACTIVITY AFFECTS
THE TERMINALS...OTHERWISE VCSH/VCTS IS LIKELY. VCTS IS ALSO POSSIBLE
FOR TNCM. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS NW-PR WHICH
MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT TJBQ BETWEEN 31/18Z AND 31/22Z.

MARINE...SOUTH OR SSE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH SAT. TRADES
RETURN SAT NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN UP TO 20 KT. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT
THROUGH SUN THEN BUILD 5-7 FT BY MON NIGHT IN NNW SWELLS AND ENE
WIND WAVES. THIS LIKELY TO RESULT IN ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS WITH
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON ATLC AND NW PR BEACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  80  88  81 /  40   0  10  10
STT  89  82  89  82 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/71






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 310812
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
412 AM AST FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEEP
CUTOFF LOW EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/CNTRL
CARIBBEAN MID NEXT WEEK AND BRING COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE USVI AND ADJANCENT WATERS
IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WITH CLEARING ONGOING OVER WRN PR. TROF AXIS WILL
PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT RISING RAPIDLY
LEADING TO IMPROVING WX CONDITIONS. SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION
STILL POSSIBLE OVR NRN PR THIS AFTERNOON BUT AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
FURTHER DRYING EXPECTED.

ON MONDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL FALL SHARPLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CUTS OFF OVR THE SW ATLC. 31/00Z ECMWF MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
GFS SHOWING AN ANOMALOUS DEEP CUTOFF OVR THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN.
COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS WILL
LEAD TO RAPID MOISTURE ADVECTION MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE EVENING
WITH SHOWERS INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVR ERN PR DURING THE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AND WRN PR DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK WITH COOLER TEMPS/LOWER HEIGHTS IS FCST BY GLOBAL MODELS
NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING A SIG RELIEF TO THE HOT WEATHER OF THIS WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO FILL ON WED WITH WX CONDITIONS IMPROVING
SOMEWHAT ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST FOR SVRL MORE DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA AROUND THE USVI WILL CAUSE TEMPO MVFR CONDS
WITH AT TISX AND TIST TIL 31/12Z...WITH CIGS AROUND FL020-040 AND
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY TO AROUND 3 MILES AS THE ACTIVITY AFFECTS
THE TERMINALS...OTHERWISE VCSH/VCTS IS LIKELY. VCTS IS ALSO POSSIBLE
FOR TNCM. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS NW-PR WHICH
MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT TJBQ BETWEEN 31/18Z AND 31/22Z.


&&

.MARINE...SOUTH OR SSE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH SAT. TRADES
RETURN SAT NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN UP TO 20 KT. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT
THROUGH SUN THEN BUILD 5-7 FT BY MON NIGHT IN NNW SWELLS AND ENE
WIND WAVES. THIS LIKELY TO RESULT IN ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS WITH
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON ATLC AND NW PR BEACHES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  80  88  81 /  50   0  10  10
STT  89  82  89  82 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/64









000
FXCA62 TJSJ 310229
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1029 PM AST THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO IS ENHANCING
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS LOCAL REGION. IN ADDITION...A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ALOFT HAS PROVIDED ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE ISLANDS TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING OVER PR THIS EVENING.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SINCE NOON TODAY HAVE GENERALLY RANGED
BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES IN PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA AND
NORTH CENTRAL PR. ISOLATED SPOTS OF 3-4 INCHES HAVE BEEN ESTIMATING
BY THE DOPPLER RADAR IN SAN JUAN...CIALES AND TOA ALTA. THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS AS
MOVES TO THE NNW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL
MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FRIDAY
AS UPPER RIDGE ESTABLISH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.
NO CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO MVFR CONDS WITH VCTS/VCSH EXPECTED AT TJSJ...
TJBQ...TISX AND TIST TIL 31/03Z. SCT-BKN LOW TO MID LVL CLDS BTW
FL018-FL120 WITH SCT HIGH LVL CLOUDS MAINLY DUE TO BLOW OFF FM
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN PR AND BTW ERN PR AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. ISLD TSTMS ALONG N COAST OF PR AND EN ROUTE BTW ERN PR
AND THE NRN LEEWARDS WITH MAX TOPS NEAR FL400. MVFR/IFR CONDS FCST
IN VCTY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MTN TOP OBSCR ALONG CENTRAL MTN
RANGE OF PR DUE TO LOW SCUD CLDS AND VCSH TIL AT LEAST 31/06Z.
THEREAFTER MOSTLY VFR CONDS OVER LAND AND AT ALL TAF SITES FOR
REST OF PRD. LGT/VRB SLY WNDS BLO FL200 THEN INCR W/HT ABV BCMG FM
NW 15-25 KTS UP TO FL450.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT UNTIL SUNDAY. THEN...
LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS WILL IMPACT THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND PASSAGES
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WAVE HEIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5-7 FT FROM MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIKELY
EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTH FACING COASTLINES OF PR AND USVI.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM AST THU OCT 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE
NORTHWEST AND STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...LIFTING ON FRIDAY.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD/EXPAND OVER THE AREA DURING THE
WEEKEND...LIMITING THE STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING OVER THE
SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AS THE MEAN WIND FLOW WAS MAINLY
FROM THE NORTH. LATER...WIND SHIFTED TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THEN...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGAN TO DEVELOPED OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST. THE
SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION WAS PRODUCE BY THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WAS LOCATED FEW HUNDRED MILES
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE AREA. THEREFORE...A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY...WHEN A RETURN TO A MORE EASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
WEEKEND MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS.

AVIATION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO PRODUCING PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS TJSJ...TJBQ AND TJMZ
UNTIL AT LEAST 30/22Z. AFTER THAT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA WITH VICINITY SHOWERS.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  88  77  89 /  60  50  20  20
STT  78  88  79  89 /  50  50  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/11







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301832
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
232 PM AST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE
NORTHWEST AND STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...LIFTING ON FRIDAY.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD/EXPAND OVER THE AREA DURING THE
WEEKEND...LIMITING THE STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING OVER THE
SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AS THE MEAN WIND FLOW WAS MAINLY
FROM THE NORTH. LATER...WIND SHIFTED TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THEN...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGAN TO DEVELOPED OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST. THE
SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION WAS PRODUCE BY THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WAS LOCATED FEW HUNDRED MILES
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE AREA. THEREFORE...A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY...WHEN A RETURN TO A MORE EASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
WEEKEND MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO PRODUCING PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS TJSJ...TJBQ AND TJMZ
UNTIL AT LEAST 30/22Z. AFTER THAT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA WITH VICINITY SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  88  77  89 /  20  50  20  20
STT  78  88  79  89 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/71










000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301528
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1128 AM AST THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE PREVAILED SO FAR
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS
BETWEEN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO WITH FEW
OF THEM AFFECTING THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MANY AREAS BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND USVI AND
LEEWARD TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER
30/17Z...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER AND
SOUTH THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. THIS MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AT TJSJ...TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH 30/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR LESS TODAY AND
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHERLY SWELL EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM AST THU OCT 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AND STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA. UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY...LIFTING ON FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD/EXPAND OVER THE
AREA DURING THE WEEKEND...LIMITING THE STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS
THE ISLANDS.

DISCUSSION...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS PRESENT TODAY FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
PRESENCE OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS...IT
SHOULD HELP DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MANY AREAS IN
PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE.

URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS QUITE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. ALSO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OBSERVED WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LOFT ON FRIDAY...WHICH MEANS THAT
LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY COMPARED TO
TODAY. THEN A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...FURTHER SUPPRESSING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH
NOT ELIMINATING THEM COMPLETELY.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE ISLANDS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AS WELL AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.

AVIATION...BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND JSJ...USVI AND
LEEWARD TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER 30/16Z... SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL. THIS MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AT
JSJ THROUGH 30/23Z. NORTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS IN THE MORNING BECOMING
S TO SW IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND HIGHER
GUSTS.

MARINE...SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR LESS TODAY AND
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHERLY SWELL EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  77  88  77 /  50  20  50  20
STT  86  78  88  79 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/71






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300956
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
556 AM AST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AND STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA. UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY...LIFTING ON FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD/EXPAND OVER THE
AREA DURING THE WEEKEND...LIMITING THE STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS
THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS PRESENT TODAY FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
PRESENCE OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS...IT
SHOULD HELP DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MANY AREAS IN
PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE.

URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS QUITE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. ALSO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OBSERVED WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LOFT ON FRIDAY...WHICH MEANS THAT
LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY COMPARED TO
TODAY. THEN A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...FURTHER SUPPRESSING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH
NOT ELIMINATING THEM COMPLETELY.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE ISLANDS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AS WELL AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.


&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND JSJ...USVI AND
LEEWARD TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER 30/16Z... SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL. THIS MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AT
JSJ THROUGH 30/23Z. NORTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS IN THE MORNING BECOMING
S TO SW IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND HIGHER
GUSTS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR LESS TODAY AND
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHERLY SWELL EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  77  88  77 /  50  20  50  20
STT  86  78  88  79 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300310
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1110 PM AST WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
INDUCED LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT
FRAGMENTS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT... SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS
PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. IN DOING SO...EXPECT A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER 30/16Z...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER AND NORTH OF THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL. THIS MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS MAINLY AT TJPS/TJSJ THROUGH 29/23Z. NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT...THEN AFT 30/13Z BECOMING MAINLY FROM THE SW AT 10 TO 15
KTS WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND HIGHER GUSTS IN AND AROUND
TSRA/SHRA. AT TJBQ A NORTHERN FLOW IS EXPECTED AFT 30/18Z.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WAVE HEIGHT
AND INCLUDED THE NORTHERLY SWELL ACTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM AST WED OCT 29 2014/

SYNOPSIS...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INDUCED BY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PUSHING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
AND NORTHERN PR...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL HOLD UNTIL THURSDAY BEFORE LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD/EXPAND OVER THE
AREA DURING THE WEEKEND...LIMITING THE STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS
THE ISLANDS.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS PRODUCING A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS PR/USVI. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
PUSHED OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAVE
FORMED OVER THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
JUST NORTH EAST OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITHOUT
AFFECTING DIRECTLY OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MAINTAIN THE ATMOSPHERE CONDITIONAL UNSTABLE...ENHANCING
SOMEWHAT THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TODAY AND THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH AS THE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...CHANGING THE FOCUS OF THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PR. THEN...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND FROM THE SOUTHEAST...AND IT IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE DURING THE WEEKEND...
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL REACH THE ISLANDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE ISLANDS ON MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.

AVIATION...BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJBQ/TJSJ...
USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER
29/16Z...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER AND
SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. THIS MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AT TJMZ AND TJPS THROUGH 29/22Z. NE WINDS
10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND HIGHER GUSTS.

MARINE...SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT UNTIL SUNDAY. SMALL
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL REACH THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND.
THEN...A LARGE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS WILL IMPACT THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND PASSAGES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WAVE HEIGHT WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 6-8 FT FROM MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH SURF
AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS
THE NORTH FACING COASTLINES OF PR AND USVI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  87  76  89 /  40  50  40  40
STT  77  88  78  88 /  50  50  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

27/09






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities