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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301900
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL LINGER NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A VERY STRONG TROPICAL
WAVE...LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 1300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AND WILL APPROACH THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION OF BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES WERE OBSERVED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WAS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR TOMORROW...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION...BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL REGION. AS THIS SURFACE TROUGH
INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH...SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED NEAR 1300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST
AND WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS
TROPICAL WAVE STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE EXPECTED IMPACTS
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE SEEM TO AGREE A BIT MORE
WITH ONE ANOTHER AND HAS THIS SYSTEM PASSING VERY CLOSE TO THE
NORTHERN USVI. THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE NORTHEASTERN PR AND THE
NORTHERN USVI SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN THIS FORECAST AS WE ARE STILL UNSURE OF WHEN WILL CYCLOGENESIS
WILL OCCUR AND HOW IT WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD WITH VCSH...EXCPT FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS PSBL DUE ISOLD-SCT
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
PR...ENDING ARND 30/21Z. E-SE WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH ISOLD HIGHER
GUSTS NR STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  88  77  87 /  10  20  30  30
STT  78  89  78  89 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

15/71










000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301900
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL LINGER NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A VERY STRONG TROPICAL
WAVE...LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 1300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AND WILL APPROACH THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION OF BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES WERE OBSERVED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WAS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR TOMORROW...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION...BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL REGION. AS THIS SURFACE TROUGH
INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH...SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED NEAR 1300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST
AND WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS
TROPICAL WAVE STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE EXPECTED IMPACTS
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE SEEM TO AGREE A BIT MORE
WITH ONE ANOTHER AND HAS THIS SYSTEM PASSING VERY CLOSE TO THE
NORTHERN USVI. THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE NORTHEASTERN PR AND THE
NORTHERN USVI SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN THIS FORECAST AS WE ARE STILL UNSURE OF WHEN WILL CYCLOGENESIS
WILL OCCUR AND HOW IT WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD WITH VCSH...EXCPT FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS PSBL DUE ISOLD-SCT
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
PR...ENDING ARND 30/21Z. E-SE WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH ISOLD HIGHER
GUSTS NR STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  88  77  87 /  10  20  30  30
STT  78  89  78  89 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

15/71











000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301442
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1042 AM AST WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO PREV...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP...AS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...NO CHANGES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT ALL TAF SITES XCPT
AT JBQ WHERE A TSRA IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18Z-21Z. WINDS MAINLY SE
10-15 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM AST WED JUL 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
IS STILL EXPECTED TO RETREAT NORTH AND INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
BY THURSDAY MORNING...LEAVING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WHILE THE LOCAL AREA
STAYS UNDER AN EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR...WITH SOME BUT NOT MUCH RAINFALL
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE
REGION AND A WEAKLY INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 44 WEST IS FORECAST TO FURTHER DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

DISCUSSION...A PATCH OF DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TODAY
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OF PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE TUTT LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS CAUSING SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT. SINCE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO LOOSEN QUITE A BIT ON
THURSDAY...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY AND ALSO GIVE THE EASTERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PR A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WEAK SURFACE INDUCED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THIS WILL INCREASE AVAILABLE MOISTURE EVEN
MORE AND ONCE AGAIN HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR WHILE EASTERN
PR MAY OBSERVE SCATTERED SHOWERS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW LOCATED AROUND LONGITUDE 44 WEST
LOOKS LIKE IT HAS LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT IT
DOES SEEM TO BE WELL ORGANIZED. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
GIVES IT A 70 PERCENT OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER THE WEEKEND
FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE SEEM TO AGREE A BIT MORE WITH ONE ANOTHER AND HAS
THIS SYSTEM PASSING VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN USVI. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD GIVE NORTHEASTERN PR AND THE NORTHERN USVI SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAIN. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS FORECAST AS WE ARE STILL
UNSURE OF WHEN WILL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AND HOW IT WILL EVOLVE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT ALL TAF SITES XCPT AT JBQ WHERE
A TSRA IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18Z-21Z. WINDS MAINLY SE 10-15 KT XCPT
WESTERLY AT JMZ AROUND 10 KT. LOW PRES OVR THE CNTRL ATLC LIKELY TO
BECOME TD#3 TONIGHT OR THU AND PASS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SAT
AFTERNOON AND NEAR OR TO THE NE OF THE USVI LATE SAT NIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVR LEEWARD AND USVI
TERMINALS.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  77  88  77 /  10  10  20  30
STT  89  78  89  78 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

15/71





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300944
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
544 AM AST WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
IS STILL EXPECTED TO RETREAT NORTH AND INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
BY THURSDAY MORNING...LEAVING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WHILE THE LOCAL AREA
STAYS UNDER AN EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR...WITH SOME BUT NOT MUCH RAINFALL
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE
REGION AND A WEAKLY INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 44 WEST IS FORECAST TO FURTHER DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A PATCH OF DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TODAY
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OF PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE TUTT LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS CAUSING SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT. SINCE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO LOOSEN QUITE A BIT ON
THURSDAY...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY AND ALSO GIVE THE EASTERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PR A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WEAK SURFACE INDUCED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THIS WILL INCREASE AVAILABLE MOISTURE EVEN
MORE AND ONCE AGAIN HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR WHILE EASTERN
PR MAY OBSERVE SCATTERED SHOWERS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW LOCATED AROUND LONGITUDE 44 WEST
LOOKS LIKE IT HAS LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT IT
DOES SEEM TO BE WELL ORGANIZED. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
GIVES IT A 70 PERCENT OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER THE WEEKEND
FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE SEEM TO AGREE A BIT MORE WITH ONE ANOTHER AND HAS
THIS SYSTEM PASSING VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN USVI. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD GIVE NORTHEASTERN PR AND THE NORTHERN USVI SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAIN. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS FORECAST AS WE ARE STILL
UNSURE OF WHEN WILL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AND HOW IT WILL EVOLVE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT ALL TAF SITES XCPT AT JBQ WHERE
A TSRA IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18Z-21Z. WINDS MAINLY SE 10-15 KT XCPT
WESTERLY AT JMZ AROUND 10 KT. LOW PRES OVR THE CNTRL ATLC LIKELY TO
BECOME TD#3 TONIGHT OR THU AND PASS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SAT
AFTERNOON AND NEAR OR TO THE NE OF THE USVI LATE SAT NIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVR LEEWARD AND USVI
TERMINALS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  77  88  77 /  10  10  20  30
STT  89  78  89  78 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

64/25









000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300944
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
544 AM AST WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
IS STILL EXPECTED TO RETREAT NORTH AND INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
BY THURSDAY MORNING...LEAVING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WHILE THE LOCAL AREA
STAYS UNDER AN EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR...WITH SOME BUT NOT MUCH RAINFALL
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE
REGION AND A WEAKLY INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 44 WEST IS FORECAST TO FURTHER DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A PATCH OF DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TODAY
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OF PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE TUTT LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS CAUSING SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT. SINCE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO LOOSEN QUITE A BIT ON
THURSDAY...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY AND ALSO GIVE THE EASTERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PR A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WEAK SURFACE INDUCED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THIS WILL INCREASE AVAILABLE MOISTURE EVEN
MORE AND ONCE AGAIN HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR WHILE EASTERN
PR MAY OBSERVE SCATTERED SHOWERS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW LOCATED AROUND LONGITUDE 44 WEST
LOOKS LIKE IT HAS LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT IT
DOES SEEM TO BE WELL ORGANIZED. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
GIVES IT A 70 PERCENT OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER THE WEEKEND
FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE SEEM TO AGREE A BIT MORE WITH ONE ANOTHER AND HAS
THIS SYSTEM PASSING VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN USVI. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD GIVE NORTHEASTERN PR AND THE NORTHERN USVI SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAIN. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS FORECAST AS WE ARE STILL
UNSURE OF WHEN WILL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AND HOW IT WILL EVOLVE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT ALL TAF SITES XCPT AT JBQ WHERE
A TSRA IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18Z-21Z. WINDS MAINLY SE 10-15 KT XCPT
WESTERLY AT JMZ AROUND 10 KT. LOW PRES OVR THE CNTRL ATLC LIKELY TO
BECOME TD#3 TONIGHT OR THU AND PASS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SAT
AFTERNOON AND NEAR OR TO THE NE OF THE USVI LATE SAT NIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVR LEEWARD AND USVI
TERMINALS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  77  88  77 /  10  10  20  30
STT  89  78  89  78 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

64/25








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300059
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
859 PM AST TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTED THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...FROM VEGA BAJA
WEST TO MOCA. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRED OVER THE
MUNICIPALITIES OF CAMUY...QUEBRADILLAS AND LARES. A STREAM LINE
THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE ISLAND OF ST CROIX AND OVER
VIEQUES...AFFECTED THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. VARIOUS
URBAN AND FLOOD ADVISORY WERE ISSUED FOR THIS AREAS.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT. SOME PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER TIST AND TISX.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM AST TUE JUL 29 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL LINGER NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. A VERY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 1750 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEXT 24 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. THE FOCUS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WAS OVER FAJARDO AND CEIBA IN THE EAST...MANATI...VEGA
BAJA AND MOROVIS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO...AND OVER THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. U.S.G.S RIVER SENSORS INDICATED
UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED OVER RIO FAJARDO...AND
OVER RIO GUAJATACA. A COOP OBSERVER REPORTED ALSO OVER 2 INCHES AT
PALMAREJO SECTOR IN VEGA BAJA. THIS ACTIVITY WAS PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
DAYTIME HEATING.

DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL COMBINE WIT DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

A VERY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 1750
MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WELL
ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHILE
IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING THIS SYSTEM FOR POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. AT THE CURRENT OF MOVEMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD BE
NEAR THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND. RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS TO PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT. SOME PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER TIST AND TISX.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  89  77  89 /  30  30  20  20
STT  78  89  78  88 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/10





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300059
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
859 PM AST TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTED THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...FROM VEGA BAJA
WEST TO MOCA. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRED OVER THE
MUNICIPALITIES OF CAMUY...QUEBRADILLAS AND LARES. A STREAM LINE
THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE ISLAND OF ST CROIX AND OVER
VIEQUES...AFFECTED THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. VARIOUS
URBAN AND FLOOD ADVISORY WERE ISSUED FOR THIS AREAS.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT. SOME PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER TIST AND TISX.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM AST TUE JUL 29 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL LINGER NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. A VERY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 1750 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEXT 24 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. THE FOCUS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WAS OVER FAJARDO AND CEIBA IN THE EAST...MANATI...VEGA
BAJA AND MOROVIS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO...AND OVER THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. U.S.G.S RIVER SENSORS INDICATED
UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED OVER RIO FAJARDO...AND
OVER RIO GUAJATACA. A COOP OBSERVER REPORTED ALSO OVER 2 INCHES AT
PALMAREJO SECTOR IN VEGA BAJA. THIS ACTIVITY WAS PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
DAYTIME HEATING.

DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL COMBINE WIT DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

A VERY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 1750
MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WELL
ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHILE
IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING THIS SYSTEM FOR POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. AT THE CURRENT OF MOVEMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD BE
NEAR THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND. RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS TO PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT. SOME PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER TIST AND TISX.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  89  77  89 /  30  30  20  20
STT  78  89  78  88 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/10






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291945
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
345 PM AST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL LINGER NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. A VERY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 1750 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. THE FOCUS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WAS OVER FAJARDO AND CEIBA IN THE EAST...MANATI...VEGA
BAJA AND MOROVIS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO...AND OVER THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. U.S.G.S RIVER SENSORS INDICATED
UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED OVER RIO FAJARDO...AND
OVER RIO GUAJATACA. A COOP OBSERVER REPORTED ALSO OVER 2 INCHES AT
PALMAREJO SECTOR IN VEGA BAJA. THIS ACTIVITY WAS PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
DAYTIME HEATING.

DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL COMBINE WIT DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

A VERY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 1750
MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WELL
ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHILE
IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING THIS SYSTEM FOR POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. AT THE CURRENT OF MOVEMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD BE
NEAR THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND. RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS TO PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT. SOME PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER TIST AND TISX.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  89  77  89 /  20  20  20  20
STT  78  89  78  88 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

08/71

















000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291506
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1106 AM AST TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO DURING THE MORNING HOURS. 12Z SJU SOUNDING INDICATED
HIGHER PW VALUES THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THIS COULD BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THE PROXIMITY OF A TUTT LOW TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND
OTHER LOCAL EFFECT...COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WIND FLOW ALOFT
COULD RESULT IN VERY SLOW MOTION OF ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS...WHICH IN TURN...COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN
SOME AREAS. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE ADDRESSES THIS QUITE
WELL...THEREFORE NO CHANGES WILL MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...OBSCD MTN AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN
29/16-21Z DUE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTION OF PR AFFECTING TJBQ AND TJMZ WITH VCTS
POSSIBLE AT JSJ. E-SE WINDS 5-15 KTS BELOW 5 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS AT OR BELOW 4
FEET FOR THE MOST PART. WINDS COULD VARIABLE ALONG THE COAST AS
LOCAL SEA BREEZES DEVELOP.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM AST TUE JUL 29 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IS STILL EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH AND INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA. TUTT LOW NORTH OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY BUT
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...SOME OF THEM BRIEFLY OVER THE USVI AND
EASTERN PR LEFT MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHILE OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING HOURS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...A TROPICAL WAVE ROUGHLY
AROUND 10 NORTH AND 37 WEST...OR AROUND 1000 MILES TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...HAS A 70 PERCENT OF DEVELOPING IN TO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A 70 PERCENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. AT THIS TIME IT IS STILL A BIT EARLY TO PRECISE JUST HOW
MUCH OR EVEN IF THIS WAVE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AS A WAVE OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE...IF AT ALL. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
AT THE TIME AND THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE SOLUTION OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS. GFS MODEL DEVELOPS IT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
TRACKS IT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DEVELOPS IT INTO A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE BUT TRACKS
IT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS...AND CLOSER TO THE OUR LOCAL AREA.
WE ARE OBSERVING THE TROPICAL WAVE CLOSELY AND ITS EVOLUTION...BUT
IT IS QUITE EARLY TO PRECISE HOW OR EVEN IF THIS WILL AFFECT THE
LOCAL AREA.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD WITH VCSH AT JSJ/IST/ISX AND NCM IN THE MORNING HOURS.
BETWEEN 29/16-21Z OBSCD MTN AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED DUE
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN
SECTION OF PR AFFECTING TJBQ AND TJMZ WITH VCTS POSSIBLE AT JSJ.
E-SE WINDS 5-15 KTS BELOW 5 KFT.

MARINE...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  77  89  77 /  30  20  20  20
STT  88  78  89  78 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

08/71






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291506
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1106 AM AST TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO DURING THE MORNING HOURS. 12Z SJU SOUNDING INDICATED
HIGHER PW VALUES THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THIS COULD BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THE PROXIMITY OF A TUTT LOW TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND
OTHER LOCAL EFFECT...COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WIND FLOW ALOFT
COULD RESULT IN VERY SLOW MOTION OF ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS...WHICH IN TURN...COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN
SOME AREAS. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE ADDRESSES THIS QUITE
WELL...THEREFORE NO CHANGES WILL MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...OBSCD MTN AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN
29/16-21Z DUE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTION OF PR AFFECTING TJBQ AND TJMZ WITH VCTS
POSSIBLE AT JSJ. E-SE WINDS 5-15 KTS BELOW 5 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS AT OR BELOW 4
FEET FOR THE MOST PART. WINDS COULD VARIABLE ALONG THE COAST AS
LOCAL SEA BREEZES DEVELOP.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM AST TUE JUL 29 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IS STILL EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH AND INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA. TUTT LOW NORTH OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY BUT
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...SOME OF THEM BRIEFLY OVER THE USVI AND
EASTERN PR LEFT MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHILE OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING HOURS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...A TROPICAL WAVE ROUGHLY
AROUND 10 NORTH AND 37 WEST...OR AROUND 1000 MILES TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...HAS A 70 PERCENT OF DEVELOPING IN TO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A 70 PERCENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. AT THIS TIME IT IS STILL A BIT EARLY TO PRECISE JUST HOW
MUCH OR EVEN IF THIS WAVE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AS A WAVE OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE...IF AT ALL. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
AT THE TIME AND THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE SOLUTION OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS. GFS MODEL DEVELOPS IT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
TRACKS IT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DEVELOPS IT INTO A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE BUT TRACKS
IT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS...AND CLOSER TO THE OUR LOCAL AREA.
WE ARE OBSERVING THE TROPICAL WAVE CLOSELY AND ITS EVOLUTION...BUT
IT IS QUITE EARLY TO PRECISE HOW OR EVEN IF THIS WILL AFFECT THE
LOCAL AREA.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD WITH VCSH AT JSJ/IST/ISX AND NCM IN THE MORNING HOURS.
BETWEEN 29/16-21Z OBSCD MTN AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED DUE
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN
SECTION OF PR AFFECTING TJBQ AND TJMZ WITH VCTS POSSIBLE AT JSJ.
E-SE WINDS 5-15 KTS BELOW 5 KFT.

MARINE...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  77  89  77 /  30  20  20  20
STT  88  78  89  78 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

08/71





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291018
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
618 AM AST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IS STILL EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH AND INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA. TUTT LOW NORTH OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY BUT
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...SOME OF THEM BRIEFLY OVER THE USVI AND
EASTERN PR LEFT MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHILE OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING HOURS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...A TROPICAL WAVE ROUGHLY
AROUND 10 NORTH AND 37 WEST...OR AROUND 1000 MILES TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...HAS A 70 PERCENT OF DEVELOPING IN TO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A 70 PERCENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. AT THIS TIME IT IS STILL A BIT EARLY TO PRECISE JUST HOW
MUCH OR EVEN IF THIS WAVE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AS A WAVE OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE...IF AT ALL. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
AT THE TIME AND THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE SOLUTION OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS. GFS MODEL DEVELOPS IT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
TRACKS IT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DEVELOPS IT INTO A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE BUT TRACKS
IT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS...AND CLOSER TO THE OUR LOCAL AREA.
WE ARE OBSERVING THE TROPICAL WAVE CLOSELY AND ITS EVOLUTION...BUT
IT IS QUITE EARLY TO PRECISE HOW OR EVEN IF THIS WILL AFFECT THE
LOCAL AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD WITH VCSH AT JSJ/IST/ISX AND NCM IN THE MORNING HOURS.
BETWEEN 29/16-21Z OBSCD MTN AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED DUE
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN
SECTION OF PR AFFECTING TJBQ AND TJMZ WITH VCTS POSSIBLE AT JSJ.
E-SE WINDS 5-15 KTS BELOW 5 KFT.


&&

.MARINE...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  77  89  77 /  30  20  20  20
STT  88  78  89  78 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291018
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
618 AM AST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IS STILL EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH AND INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA. TUTT LOW NORTH OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY BUT
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...SOME OF THEM BRIEFLY OVER THE USVI AND
EASTERN PR LEFT MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHILE OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING HOURS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...A TROPICAL WAVE ROUGHLY
AROUND 10 NORTH AND 37 WEST...OR AROUND 1000 MILES TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...HAS A 70 PERCENT OF DEVELOPING IN TO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A 70 PERCENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. AT THIS TIME IT IS STILL A BIT EARLY TO PRECISE JUST HOW
MUCH OR EVEN IF THIS WAVE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AS A WAVE OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE...IF AT ALL. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
AT THE TIME AND THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE SOLUTION OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS. GFS MODEL DEVELOPS IT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
TRACKS IT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DEVELOPS IT INTO A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE BUT TRACKS
IT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS...AND CLOSER TO THE OUR LOCAL AREA.
WE ARE OBSERVING THE TROPICAL WAVE CLOSELY AND ITS EVOLUTION...BUT
IT IS QUITE EARLY TO PRECISE HOW OR EVEN IF THIS WILL AFFECT THE
LOCAL AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD WITH VCSH AT JSJ/IST/ISX AND NCM IN THE MORNING HOURS.
BETWEEN 29/16-21Z OBSCD MTN AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED DUE
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN
SECTION OF PR AFFECTING TJBQ AND TJMZ WITH VCTS POSSIBLE AT JSJ.
E-SE WINDS 5-15 KTS BELOW 5 KFT.


&&

.MARINE...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  77  89  77 /  30  20  20  20
STT  88  78  89  78 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290249
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1049 PM AST MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...A TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE REGION WILL INDUCE A WEAK LOW LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ONLY PATCHES OF SHALLOW
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE. THEREFORE...EXPECT ONLY OCCASIONAL
PASSING CLOUDS AND A FEW TUTT ENHANCED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETREAT FURTHER NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WHILE RELAXING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS IN TURN
WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY LIGHT EAST SOUTH EAST TRADE WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK. LATEST TJSJ 29/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED PWAT VALUES STILL
AROUND 1.70 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. NO MAJOR
CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

LATEST UPDATE ON THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AS PER NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...A THIS FEATURE MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD
OR WEST NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE
AT 8 PM AST NOW SUGGEST A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT FOR FORMATION
THROUGH 48 HOURS. STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONS UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BETWEEN 29/16-21Z BRIEF MTN TOP
OBSCR AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED DUE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTION OF PR AFFECTING
MAINLY TJBQ AND TJMZ. E-SE WINDS 5-15 KTS BELOW 5 KFT.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION.
LATEST OBS FROM SURROUNDING BUOYS AS WELL AS MODEL GUIDANCE...SUGGEST
FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM AST MON JUL 28 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
REMAIN DOMINATING THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND LOWER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH. TUTT TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS THE TROPICAL
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND A UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE
AREA. THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS
THE REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SAME TROUGH WILL PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 10 NORTH LATITUDE AND 33 WEST LONGITUDE. PER
LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE
IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO PRECISE JUST HOW MUCH OR EVEN IF THIS WAVE WILL
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AS A WAVE OR TROPICAL CYCLONE...IF AT ALL.
THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME AND THERE IS GREAT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GLOBAL MODELS. WE ARE OBSERVING THE TROPICAL
WAVE CLOSELY AND ITS EVOLUTION...BUT IT IS JUST TOO EARLY YET TO
PRECISE HOW OR EVEN IF THIS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA. STAY TUNED
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

AVIATION...VCTS NEAR TJPS AND TJMZ THROUGH AT LEAST 28/22Z.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.

MARINE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...CENTERED
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETREAT
NORTH. AS A RESULT RESULT...SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  88  77  89 /  20  30  20  20
STT  78  89  78  88 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/09






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290249
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1049 PM AST MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...A TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE REGION WILL INDUCE A WEAK LOW LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ONLY PATCHES OF SHALLOW
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE. THEREFORE...EXPECT ONLY OCCASIONAL
PASSING CLOUDS AND A FEW TUTT ENHANCED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETREAT FURTHER NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WHILE RELAXING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS IN TURN
WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY LIGHT EAST SOUTH EAST TRADE WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK. LATEST TJSJ 29/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED PWAT VALUES STILL
AROUND 1.70 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. NO MAJOR
CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

LATEST UPDATE ON THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AS PER NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...A THIS FEATURE MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD
OR WEST NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE
AT 8 PM AST NOW SUGGEST A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT FOR FORMATION
THROUGH 48 HOURS. STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONS UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BETWEEN 29/16-21Z BRIEF MTN TOP
OBSCR AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED DUE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTION OF PR AFFECTING
MAINLY TJBQ AND TJMZ. E-SE WINDS 5-15 KTS BELOW 5 KFT.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION.
LATEST OBS FROM SURROUNDING BUOYS AS WELL AS MODEL GUIDANCE...SUGGEST
FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM AST MON JUL 28 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
REMAIN DOMINATING THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND LOWER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH. TUTT TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS THE TROPICAL
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND A UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE
AREA. THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS
THE REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SAME TROUGH WILL PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 10 NORTH LATITUDE AND 33 WEST LONGITUDE. PER
LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE
IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO PRECISE JUST HOW MUCH OR EVEN IF THIS WAVE WILL
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AS A WAVE OR TROPICAL CYCLONE...IF AT ALL.
THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME AND THERE IS GREAT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GLOBAL MODELS. WE ARE OBSERVING THE TROPICAL
WAVE CLOSELY AND ITS EVOLUTION...BUT IT IS JUST TOO EARLY YET TO
PRECISE HOW OR EVEN IF THIS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA. STAY TUNED
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

AVIATION...VCTS NEAR TJPS AND TJMZ THROUGH AT LEAST 28/22Z.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.

MARINE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...CENTERED
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETREAT
NORTH. AS A RESULT RESULT...SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  88  77  89 /  20  30  20  20
STT  78  89  78  88 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/09






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290249
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1049 PM AST MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...A TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE REGION WILL INDUCE A WEAK LOW LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ONLY PATCHES OF SHALLOW
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE. THEREFORE...EXPECT ONLY OCCASIONAL
PASSING CLOUDS AND A FEW TUTT ENHANCED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETREAT FURTHER NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WHILE RELAXING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS IN TURN
WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY LIGHT EAST SOUTH EAST TRADE WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK. LATEST TJSJ 29/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED PWAT VALUES STILL
AROUND 1.70 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. NO MAJOR
CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

LATEST UPDATE ON THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AS PER NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...A THIS FEATURE MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD
OR WEST NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE
AT 8 PM AST NOW SUGGEST A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT FOR FORMATION
THROUGH 48 HOURS. STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONS UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BETWEEN 29/16-21Z BRIEF MTN TOP
OBSCR AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED DUE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTION OF PR AFFECTING
MAINLY TJBQ AND TJMZ. E-SE WINDS 5-15 KTS BELOW 5 KFT.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION.
LATEST OBS FROM SURROUNDING BUOYS AS WELL AS MODEL GUIDANCE...SUGGEST
FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM AST MON JUL 28 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
REMAIN DOMINATING THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND LOWER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH. TUTT TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS THE TROPICAL
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND A UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE
AREA. THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS
THE REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SAME TROUGH WILL PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 10 NORTH LATITUDE AND 33 WEST LONGITUDE. PER
LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE
IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO PRECISE JUST HOW MUCH OR EVEN IF THIS WAVE WILL
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AS A WAVE OR TROPICAL CYCLONE...IF AT ALL.
THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME AND THERE IS GREAT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GLOBAL MODELS. WE ARE OBSERVING THE TROPICAL
WAVE CLOSELY AND ITS EVOLUTION...BUT IT IS JUST TOO EARLY YET TO
PRECISE HOW OR EVEN IF THIS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA. STAY TUNED
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

AVIATION...VCTS NEAR TJPS AND TJMZ THROUGH AT LEAST 28/22Z.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.

MARINE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...CENTERED
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETREAT
NORTH. AS A RESULT RESULT...SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  88  77  89 /  20  30  20  20
STT  78  89  78  88 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/09






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290249
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1049 PM AST MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...A TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE REGION WILL INDUCE A WEAK LOW LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ONLY PATCHES OF SHALLOW
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE. THEREFORE...EXPECT ONLY OCCASIONAL
PASSING CLOUDS AND A FEW TUTT ENHANCED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETREAT FURTHER NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WHILE RELAXING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS IN TURN
WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY LIGHT EAST SOUTH EAST TRADE WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK. LATEST TJSJ 29/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED PWAT VALUES STILL
AROUND 1.70 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. NO MAJOR
CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

LATEST UPDATE ON THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AS PER NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...A THIS FEATURE MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD
OR WEST NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE
AT 8 PM AST NOW SUGGEST A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT FOR FORMATION
THROUGH 48 HOURS. STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONS UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BETWEEN 29/16-21Z BRIEF MTN TOP
OBSCR AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED DUE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTION OF PR AFFECTING
MAINLY TJBQ AND TJMZ. E-SE WINDS 5-15 KTS BELOW 5 KFT.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION.
LATEST OBS FROM SURROUNDING BUOYS AS WELL AS MODEL GUIDANCE...SUGGEST
FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM AST MON JUL 28 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
REMAIN DOMINATING THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND LOWER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH. TUTT TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS THE TROPICAL
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND A UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE
AREA. THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS
THE REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SAME TROUGH WILL PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 10 NORTH LATITUDE AND 33 WEST LONGITUDE. PER
LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE
IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO PRECISE JUST HOW MUCH OR EVEN IF THIS WAVE WILL
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AS A WAVE OR TROPICAL CYCLONE...IF AT ALL.
THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME AND THERE IS GREAT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GLOBAL MODELS. WE ARE OBSERVING THE TROPICAL
WAVE CLOSELY AND ITS EVOLUTION...BUT IT IS JUST TOO EARLY YET TO
PRECISE HOW OR EVEN IF THIS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA. STAY TUNED
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

AVIATION...VCTS NEAR TJPS AND TJMZ THROUGH AT LEAST 28/22Z.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.

MARINE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...CENTERED
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETREAT
NORTH. AS A RESULT RESULT...SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  88  77  89 /  20  30  20  20
STT  78  89  78  88 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/09






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