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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020212
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1012 PM AST MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS...WITH
FEW AFFECTING BRIEFLY SOME OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. LATEST SATELITE
AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATED AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT LOCAL TAF SITES WITH VCSH AT TJSJ AND TJBQ
THRU EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEN TYPICAL AFT SHRA POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE
OF TSRA FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ TIL AROUND 02/21Z. WINDS RANGE FROM LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO E-SE TO 10 KTS OVRNGHT...THEN WNDS E-SE AT 10-15 KTS
FM SFC TO FL200 AFT 02/14Z...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM AST MON SEP 1 2014/

SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE ISLANDS THIS WEEK. THE FIRST WAVE REACHES THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATE TUESDAY AND THE SECOND WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CLOUD AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE WITH BOTH WAVES...HOWEVER THE SECOND WAVE IS BETTER
DEFINED/ORGANIZED.

DISCUSSION...TRADE WINDS HAVE TRANSPORTED PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...
CULEBRA AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO EARLY TODAY. LOW LEVEL
WINDS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING CU LINES TO
FORM DOWNWIND OF THE USVI...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. SOME OF THESE CU
LINES/STREAMERS HAVE MOVED OVER EASTERN PR PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EL YUNQUE AND PORTIONS
OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. IN ADDITION...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
OVER WESTERN PR HAVE RESULTED IN THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST A DRY SLOT UPSTREAM OF THE USVI/PR AHEAD
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
ARRIVE TO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...CLOUD
AND SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS WAVE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-UPPER
RIDGE ALOFT. DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE WAVE. THINGS WILL CHANGE AGAIN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WHEN THE SECOND WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THIS WAVE WILL BRING ORGANIZED CONVECTION
AND BETTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
WHEN THE AXIS OF THE WAVE PASSES AND THE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST.

AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA THIS AFT MAINLY NR TJMZ/TJBQ/TJSJ BUT
STREAMING SHRA MAY BARELY BYPASS TJSJ TOWARD SW. AREAS OBSCD MTNS.
SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO ARRIVE AT TNCM/TKPK WL CONT INTO
NITE. OTW VFR ALL TAF SITES XCP BRF MVFR IN ISOLD/SCT SHRA. WND BLO
FL200 E-ESE INCR 13-22 KT TONITE/TUE.

MARINE...SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FEET AND WINDS OF 13-18 KT CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  90  78  90 /  30  40  30  30
STT  79  89  80  89 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

15/71









000
FXCA62 TJSJ 011828
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
228 PM AST MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE ISLANDS THIS WEEK. THE FIRST WAVE REACHES THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATE TUESDAY AND THE SECOND WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CLOUD AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE WITH BOTH WAVES...HOWEVER THE SECOND WAVE IS BETTER
DEFINED/ORGANIZED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TRADE WINDS HAVE TRANSPORTED PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...
CULEBRA AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO EARLY TODAY. LOW LEVEL
WINDS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING CU LINES TO
FORM DOWNWIND OF THE USVI...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. SOME OF THESE CU
LINES/STREAMERS HAVE MOVED OVER EASTERN PR PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EL YUNQUE AND PORTIONS
OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. IN ADDITION...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
OVER WESTERN PR HAVE RESULTED IN THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST A DRY SLOT UPSTREAM OF THE USVI/PR AHEAD
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
ARRIVE TO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...CLOUD
AND SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS WAVE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-UPPER
RIDGE ALOFT. DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE WAVE. THINGS WILL CHANGE AGAIN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WHEN THE SECOND WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THIS WAVE WILL BRING ORGANIZED CONVECTION
AND BETTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
WHEN THE AXIS OF THE WAVE PASSES AND THE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA THIS AFT MAINLY NR TJMZ/TJBQ/TJSJ BUT
STREAMING SHRA MAY BARELY BYPASS TJSJ TOWARD SW. AREAS OBSCD MTNS.
SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO ARRIVE AT TNCM/TKPK WL CONT INTO
NITE. OTW VFR ALL TAF SITES XCP BRF MVFR IN ISOLD/SCT SHRA. WND BLO
FL200 E-ESE INCR 13-22 KT TONITE/TUE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FEET AND WINDS OF 13-18 KT CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  90  78  90 /  30  40  30  30
STT  79  89  80  89 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

54/11





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 011828
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
228 PM AST MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE ISLANDS THIS WEEK. THE FIRST WAVE REACHES THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATE TUESDAY AND THE SECOND WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CLOUD AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE WITH BOTH WAVES...HOWEVER THE SECOND WAVE IS BETTER
DEFINED/ORGANIZED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TRADE WINDS HAVE TRANSPORTED PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...
CULEBRA AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO EARLY TODAY. LOW LEVEL
WINDS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING CU LINES TO
FORM DOWNWIND OF THE USVI...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. SOME OF THESE CU
LINES/STREAMERS HAVE MOVED OVER EASTERN PR PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EL YUNQUE AND PORTIONS
OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. IN ADDITION...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
OVER WESTERN PR HAVE RESULTED IN THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST A DRY SLOT UPSTREAM OF THE USVI/PR AHEAD
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
ARRIVE TO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...CLOUD
AND SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS WAVE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-UPPER
RIDGE ALOFT. DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE WAVE. THINGS WILL CHANGE AGAIN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WHEN THE SECOND WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THIS WAVE WILL BRING ORGANIZED CONVECTION
AND BETTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
WHEN THE AXIS OF THE WAVE PASSES AND THE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA THIS AFT MAINLY NR TJMZ/TJBQ/TJSJ BUT
STREAMING SHRA MAY BARELY BYPASS TJSJ TOWARD SW. AREAS OBSCD MTNS.
SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO ARRIVE AT TNCM/TKPK WL CONT INTO
NITE. OTW VFR ALL TAF SITES XCP BRF MVFR IN ISOLD/SCT SHRA. WND BLO
FL200 E-ESE INCR 13-22 KT TONITE/TUE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FEET AND WINDS OF 13-18 KT CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  90  78  90 /  30  40  30  30
STT  79  89  80  89 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

54/11





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 011828
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
228 PM AST MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE ISLANDS THIS WEEK. THE FIRST WAVE REACHES THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATE TUESDAY AND THE SECOND WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CLOUD AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE WITH BOTH WAVES...HOWEVER THE SECOND WAVE IS BETTER
DEFINED/ORGANIZED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TRADE WINDS HAVE TRANSPORTED PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...
CULEBRA AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO EARLY TODAY. LOW LEVEL
WINDS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING CU LINES TO
FORM DOWNWIND OF THE USVI...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. SOME OF THESE CU
LINES/STREAMERS HAVE MOVED OVER EASTERN PR PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EL YUNQUE AND PORTIONS
OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. IN ADDITION...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
OVER WESTERN PR HAVE RESULTED IN THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST A DRY SLOT UPSTREAM OF THE USVI/PR AHEAD
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
ARRIVE TO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...CLOUD
AND SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS WAVE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-UPPER
RIDGE ALOFT. DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE WAVE. THINGS WILL CHANGE AGAIN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WHEN THE SECOND WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THIS WAVE WILL BRING ORGANIZED CONVECTION
AND BETTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
WHEN THE AXIS OF THE WAVE PASSES AND THE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA THIS AFT MAINLY NR TJMZ/TJBQ/TJSJ BUT
STREAMING SHRA MAY BARELY BYPASS TJSJ TOWARD SW. AREAS OBSCD MTNS.
SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO ARRIVE AT TNCM/TKPK WL CONT INTO
NITE. OTW VFR ALL TAF SITES XCP BRF MVFR IN ISOLD/SCT SHRA. WND BLO
FL200 E-ESE INCR 13-22 KT TONITE/TUE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FEET AND WINDS OF 13-18 KT CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  90  78  90 /  30  40  30  30
STT  79  89  80  89 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

54/11





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 011828
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
228 PM AST MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE ISLANDS THIS WEEK. THE FIRST WAVE REACHES THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATE TUESDAY AND THE SECOND WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CLOUD AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE WITH BOTH WAVES...HOWEVER THE SECOND WAVE IS BETTER
DEFINED/ORGANIZED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TRADE WINDS HAVE TRANSPORTED PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...
CULEBRA AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO EARLY TODAY. LOW LEVEL
WINDS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING CU LINES TO
FORM DOWNWIND OF THE USVI...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. SOME OF THESE CU
LINES/STREAMERS HAVE MOVED OVER EASTERN PR PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EL YUNQUE AND PORTIONS
OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. IN ADDITION...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
OVER WESTERN PR HAVE RESULTED IN THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST A DRY SLOT UPSTREAM OF THE USVI/PR AHEAD
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
ARRIVE TO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...CLOUD
AND SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS WAVE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-UPPER
RIDGE ALOFT. DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE WAVE. THINGS WILL CHANGE AGAIN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WHEN THE SECOND WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THIS WAVE WILL BRING ORGANIZED CONVECTION
AND BETTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
WHEN THE AXIS OF THE WAVE PASSES AND THE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA THIS AFT MAINLY NR TJMZ/TJBQ/TJSJ BUT
STREAMING SHRA MAY BARELY BYPASS TJSJ TOWARD SW. AREAS OBSCD MTNS.
SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO ARRIVE AT TNCM/TKPK WL CONT INTO
NITE. OTW VFR ALL TAF SITES XCP BRF MVFR IN ISOLD/SCT SHRA. WND BLO
FL200 E-ESE INCR 13-22 KT TONITE/TUE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FEET AND WINDS OF 13-18 KT CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  90  78  90 /  30  40  30  30
STT  79  89  80  89 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

54/11





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 011437
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1037 AM AST MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...DECREASED SHOWERS MOST LOCATIONS TODAY IN LIGHT OF THE
12Z TJSJ SOUNDING AND SPLIT AROUND THE ISLANDS NOTED ON PRECIPITABLE
WATER LOOPS. TOOK OUT THUNDER FOR EAST PR WITH A SUBSTANTIAL
INVERSION ON THE SOUNDING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MIMIC/TPW IS CONFIRMING GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER IN
THAT DEEPEST MOISTURE TODAY IS ABOUT TO PASS BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH
OF PR/USVI...THOUGH CURRENT RADAR SHOWS MOST ARE IN CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT DIURNAL EFFECTS TO INCREASE SHOWERS FOR INTERIOR WEST PR
AND DECREASE THEM SOMEWHAT OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ALL TAF SITES XCP BRF MVFR IN ISOLD SHRA...SCT
SHRA/TSRA WEST PR IN AFT WI OBSCD MTNS. WND BLO FL200 E-ESE 10-15
KT TDY BCMG 13-22 KT TONITE/TUE.

&&

.MARINE...LIMITED WINDS IN COASTAL WATERS TO UNDER 20 KT BUT
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. MAX SEAS 4 FT UNTIL TUE NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM AST MON SEP 1 2014/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS
WILL MOVE WESTWARD TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND ALLOW A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO. ON THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EXPAND OVER THE LOCAL AREA CAUSING WINDS TO
BECOME WEST NORTHWEST AND GENERALLY MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK...THIS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHWEST BUT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS RETREATS TO THE WEST
DURING THE WEEK...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES WEST
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEA BOARD OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
HOLDS THE AREA UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK GRADIENTS. OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK A TROUGH FORMS OVER THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SAGS SOUTH AND WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY DURING THE WEEK WHILE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN. HENCE MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EAST SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN
AFTER THURSDAY. SEVERAL BANDS OF MOISTURE IN WEAK TROUGHS OR
WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY...TUESDAY...LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS INCREASED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT
IN THE SHADOWS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT DUE TO THEIR SIZE AND MOVEMENT
OF 17 KNOTS...ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WERE SEEN AND ONLY A FEW
PASSED OVER LAND. AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...SEVERAL BANDS OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE FIRST IS
RELATIVELY SMALL BUT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA INCREASING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TODAY. ARRIVING AFTER MOST OF THE
HEATING IS ACCOMPLISHED...THIS AREA OF MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE SOME
ACTIVE CONVECTION AND SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN WESTERN
PUERTO RICO INCLUDING SOME LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. AFTER AN INTERMISSION BETTER MOISTURE FOLLOWS ABOUT 24
HOURS BEHIND AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE ON
TUESDAY. IN FACT THE GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING
2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AT 02/18Z. MOISTURE THEN ABATES UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT THEN...AT LEAST ON THE
WINDWARD SIDE OF PUERTO RICO AND IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
BECOME HEAVY ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT EXCEED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING...ALTHOUGH GREATER AMOUNTS THAN TODAY AND TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE TAKES ON MORE OF AN INVERTED
V SHAPE. ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES SHOW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OUT OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST FRIDAY SIMILAR TO THE FALSE ALARMS
OF LAST WEEK. IT MOVES IT NORTH OF 20 NORTH BEFORE 50 WEST BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHERE IT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO AFFECT PUERTO
RICO OR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT LOCAL TAF SITES. VCSH AT TJSJ AND LOCAL
ISLANDS THRU MORNING HOURS. THEN IN THE AFTERNOON...SHRA POSSIBLE
WITH CHANCE OF TSRA FOR TJMZ AND VCTS FOR TJBQ TIL AROUND 01/22Z.
WNDS E-SE AT 10-15 KTS FM SFC TO FL200 ON LABOR DAY...WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS. MTN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED AFT 01/16Z AREA WIDE...AND
AS EARLY AS 01/10Z OVER THE HIGHEST MTN TOPS OF EL YUNQUE.

MARINE...SEAS WILL INCREASE TO AS MUCH AS 5 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THEN RETURN TO 3 TO 4 FEET THEREAFTER. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL BEYOND AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  79  90  79 /  20  30  40  30
STT  88  79  89  80 /  30  40  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

54/11






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 011437
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1037 AM AST MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...DECREASED SHOWERS MOST LOCATIONS TODAY IN LIGHT OF THE
12Z TJSJ SOUNDING AND SPLIT AROUND THE ISLANDS NOTED ON PRECIPITABLE
WATER LOOPS. TOOK OUT THUNDER FOR EAST PR WITH A SUBSTANTIAL
INVERSION ON THE SOUNDING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MIMIC/TPW IS CONFIRMING GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER IN
THAT DEEPEST MOISTURE TODAY IS ABOUT TO PASS BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH
OF PR/USVI...THOUGH CURRENT RADAR SHOWS MOST ARE IN CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT DIURNAL EFFECTS TO INCREASE SHOWERS FOR INTERIOR WEST PR
AND DECREASE THEM SOMEWHAT OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ALL TAF SITES XCP BRF MVFR IN ISOLD SHRA...SCT
SHRA/TSRA WEST PR IN AFT WI OBSCD MTNS. WND BLO FL200 E-ESE 10-15
KT TDY BCMG 13-22 KT TONITE/TUE.

&&

.MARINE...LIMITED WINDS IN COASTAL WATERS TO UNDER 20 KT BUT
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. MAX SEAS 4 FT UNTIL TUE NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM AST MON SEP 1 2014/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS
WILL MOVE WESTWARD TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND ALLOW A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO. ON THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EXPAND OVER THE LOCAL AREA CAUSING WINDS TO
BECOME WEST NORTHWEST AND GENERALLY MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK...THIS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHWEST BUT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS RETREATS TO THE WEST
DURING THE WEEK...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES WEST
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEA BOARD OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
HOLDS THE AREA UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK GRADIENTS. OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK A TROUGH FORMS OVER THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SAGS SOUTH AND WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY DURING THE WEEK WHILE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN. HENCE MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EAST SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN
AFTER THURSDAY. SEVERAL BANDS OF MOISTURE IN WEAK TROUGHS OR
WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY...TUESDAY...LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS INCREASED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT
IN THE SHADOWS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT DUE TO THEIR SIZE AND MOVEMENT
OF 17 KNOTS...ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WERE SEEN AND ONLY A FEW
PASSED OVER LAND. AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...SEVERAL BANDS OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE FIRST IS
RELATIVELY SMALL BUT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA INCREASING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TODAY. ARRIVING AFTER MOST OF THE
HEATING IS ACCOMPLISHED...THIS AREA OF MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE SOME
ACTIVE CONVECTION AND SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN WESTERN
PUERTO RICO INCLUDING SOME LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. AFTER AN INTERMISSION BETTER MOISTURE FOLLOWS ABOUT 24
HOURS BEHIND AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE ON
TUESDAY. IN FACT THE GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING
2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AT 02/18Z. MOISTURE THEN ABATES UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT THEN...AT LEAST ON THE
WINDWARD SIDE OF PUERTO RICO AND IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
BECOME HEAVY ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT EXCEED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING...ALTHOUGH GREATER AMOUNTS THAN TODAY AND TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE TAKES ON MORE OF AN INVERTED
V SHAPE. ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES SHOW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OUT OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST FRIDAY SIMILAR TO THE FALSE ALARMS
OF LAST WEEK. IT MOVES IT NORTH OF 20 NORTH BEFORE 50 WEST BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHERE IT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO AFFECT PUERTO
RICO OR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT LOCAL TAF SITES. VCSH AT TJSJ AND LOCAL
ISLANDS THRU MORNING HOURS. THEN IN THE AFTERNOON...SHRA POSSIBLE
WITH CHANCE OF TSRA FOR TJMZ AND VCTS FOR TJBQ TIL AROUND 01/22Z.
WNDS E-SE AT 10-15 KTS FM SFC TO FL200 ON LABOR DAY...WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS. MTN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED AFT 01/16Z AREA WIDE...AND
AS EARLY AS 01/10Z OVER THE HIGHEST MTN TOPS OF EL YUNQUE.

MARINE...SEAS WILL INCREASE TO AS MUCH AS 5 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THEN RETURN TO 3 TO 4 FEET THEREAFTER. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL BEYOND AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  79  90  79 /  20  30  40  30
STT  88  79  89  80 /  30  40  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

54/11






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 011437
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1037 AM AST MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...DECREASED SHOWERS MOST LOCATIONS TODAY IN LIGHT OF THE
12Z TJSJ SOUNDING AND SPLIT AROUND THE ISLANDS NOTED ON PRECIPITABLE
WATER LOOPS. TOOK OUT THUNDER FOR EAST PR WITH A SUBSTANTIAL
INVERSION ON THE SOUNDING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MIMIC/TPW IS CONFIRMING GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER IN
THAT DEEPEST MOISTURE TODAY IS ABOUT TO PASS BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH
OF PR/USVI...THOUGH CURRENT RADAR SHOWS MOST ARE IN CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT DIURNAL EFFECTS TO INCREASE SHOWERS FOR INTERIOR WEST PR
AND DECREASE THEM SOMEWHAT OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ALL TAF SITES XCP BRF MVFR IN ISOLD SHRA...SCT
SHRA/TSRA WEST PR IN AFT WI OBSCD MTNS. WND BLO FL200 E-ESE 10-15
KT TDY BCMG 13-22 KT TONITE/TUE.

&&

.MARINE...LIMITED WINDS IN COASTAL WATERS TO UNDER 20 KT BUT
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. MAX SEAS 4 FT UNTIL TUE NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM AST MON SEP 1 2014/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS
WILL MOVE WESTWARD TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND ALLOW A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO. ON THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EXPAND OVER THE LOCAL AREA CAUSING WINDS TO
BECOME WEST NORTHWEST AND GENERALLY MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK...THIS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHWEST BUT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS RETREATS TO THE WEST
DURING THE WEEK...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES WEST
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEA BOARD OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
HOLDS THE AREA UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK GRADIENTS. OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK A TROUGH FORMS OVER THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SAGS SOUTH AND WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY DURING THE WEEK WHILE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN. HENCE MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EAST SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN
AFTER THURSDAY. SEVERAL BANDS OF MOISTURE IN WEAK TROUGHS OR
WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY...TUESDAY...LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS INCREASED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT
IN THE SHADOWS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT DUE TO THEIR SIZE AND MOVEMENT
OF 17 KNOTS...ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WERE SEEN AND ONLY A FEW
PASSED OVER LAND. AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...SEVERAL BANDS OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE FIRST IS
RELATIVELY SMALL BUT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA INCREASING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TODAY. ARRIVING AFTER MOST OF THE
HEATING IS ACCOMPLISHED...THIS AREA OF MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE SOME
ACTIVE CONVECTION AND SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN WESTERN
PUERTO RICO INCLUDING SOME LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. AFTER AN INTERMISSION BETTER MOISTURE FOLLOWS ABOUT 24
HOURS BEHIND AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE ON
TUESDAY. IN FACT THE GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING
2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AT 02/18Z. MOISTURE THEN ABATES UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT THEN...AT LEAST ON THE
WINDWARD SIDE OF PUERTO RICO AND IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
BECOME HEAVY ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT EXCEED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING...ALTHOUGH GREATER AMOUNTS THAN TODAY AND TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE TAKES ON MORE OF AN INVERTED
V SHAPE. ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES SHOW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OUT OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST FRIDAY SIMILAR TO THE FALSE ALARMS
OF LAST WEEK. IT MOVES IT NORTH OF 20 NORTH BEFORE 50 WEST BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHERE IT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO AFFECT PUERTO
RICO OR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT LOCAL TAF SITES. VCSH AT TJSJ AND LOCAL
ISLANDS THRU MORNING HOURS. THEN IN THE AFTERNOON...SHRA POSSIBLE
WITH CHANCE OF TSRA FOR TJMZ AND VCTS FOR TJBQ TIL AROUND 01/22Z.
WNDS E-SE AT 10-15 KTS FM SFC TO FL200 ON LABOR DAY...WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS. MTN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED AFT 01/16Z AREA WIDE...AND
AS EARLY AS 01/10Z OVER THE HIGHEST MTN TOPS OF EL YUNQUE.

MARINE...SEAS WILL INCREASE TO AS MUCH AS 5 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THEN RETURN TO 3 TO 4 FEET THEREAFTER. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL BEYOND AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  79  90  79 /  20  30  40  30
STT  88  79  89  80 /  30  40  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

54/11






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 011437
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1037 AM AST MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...DECREASED SHOWERS MOST LOCATIONS TODAY IN LIGHT OF THE
12Z TJSJ SOUNDING AND SPLIT AROUND THE ISLANDS NOTED ON PRECIPITABLE
WATER LOOPS. TOOK OUT THUNDER FOR EAST PR WITH A SUBSTANTIAL
INVERSION ON THE SOUNDING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MIMIC/TPW IS CONFIRMING GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER IN
THAT DEEPEST MOISTURE TODAY IS ABOUT TO PASS BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH
OF PR/USVI...THOUGH CURRENT RADAR SHOWS MOST ARE IN CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT DIURNAL EFFECTS TO INCREASE SHOWERS FOR INTERIOR WEST PR
AND DECREASE THEM SOMEWHAT OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ALL TAF SITES XCP BRF MVFR IN ISOLD SHRA...SCT
SHRA/TSRA WEST PR IN AFT WI OBSCD MTNS. WND BLO FL200 E-ESE 10-15
KT TDY BCMG 13-22 KT TONITE/TUE.

&&

.MARINE...LIMITED WINDS IN COASTAL WATERS TO UNDER 20 KT BUT
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. MAX SEAS 4 FT UNTIL TUE NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM AST MON SEP 1 2014/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS
WILL MOVE WESTWARD TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND ALLOW A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO. ON THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EXPAND OVER THE LOCAL AREA CAUSING WINDS TO
BECOME WEST NORTHWEST AND GENERALLY MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK...THIS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHWEST BUT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS RETREATS TO THE WEST
DURING THE WEEK...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES WEST
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEA BOARD OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
HOLDS THE AREA UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK GRADIENTS. OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK A TROUGH FORMS OVER THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SAGS SOUTH AND WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY DURING THE WEEK WHILE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN. HENCE MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EAST SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN
AFTER THURSDAY. SEVERAL BANDS OF MOISTURE IN WEAK TROUGHS OR
WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY...TUESDAY...LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS INCREASED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT
IN THE SHADOWS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT DUE TO THEIR SIZE AND MOVEMENT
OF 17 KNOTS...ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WERE SEEN AND ONLY A FEW
PASSED OVER LAND. AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...SEVERAL BANDS OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE FIRST IS
RELATIVELY SMALL BUT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA INCREASING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TODAY. ARRIVING AFTER MOST OF THE
HEATING IS ACCOMPLISHED...THIS AREA OF MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE SOME
ACTIVE CONVECTION AND SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN WESTERN
PUERTO RICO INCLUDING SOME LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. AFTER AN INTERMISSION BETTER MOISTURE FOLLOWS ABOUT 24
HOURS BEHIND AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE ON
TUESDAY. IN FACT THE GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING
2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AT 02/18Z. MOISTURE THEN ABATES UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT THEN...AT LEAST ON THE
WINDWARD SIDE OF PUERTO RICO AND IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
BECOME HEAVY ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT EXCEED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING...ALTHOUGH GREATER AMOUNTS THAN TODAY AND TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE TAKES ON MORE OF AN INVERTED
V SHAPE. ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES SHOW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OUT OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST FRIDAY SIMILAR TO THE FALSE ALARMS
OF LAST WEEK. IT MOVES IT NORTH OF 20 NORTH BEFORE 50 WEST BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHERE IT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO AFFECT PUERTO
RICO OR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT LOCAL TAF SITES. VCSH AT TJSJ AND LOCAL
ISLANDS THRU MORNING HOURS. THEN IN THE AFTERNOON...SHRA POSSIBLE
WITH CHANCE OF TSRA FOR TJMZ AND VCTS FOR TJBQ TIL AROUND 01/22Z.
WNDS E-SE AT 10-15 KTS FM SFC TO FL200 ON LABOR DAY...WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS. MTN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED AFT 01/16Z AREA WIDE...AND
AS EARLY AS 01/10Z OVER THE HIGHEST MTN TOPS OF EL YUNQUE.

MARINE...SEAS WILL INCREASE TO AS MUCH AS 5 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THEN RETURN TO 3 TO 4 FEET THEREAFTER. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL BEYOND AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  79  90  79 /  20  30  40  30
STT  88  79  89  80 /  30  40  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

54/11






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010902
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
502 AM AST MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS
WILL MOVE WESTWARD TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND ALLOW A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO. ON THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EXPAND OVER THE LOCAL AREA CAUSING WINDS TO
BECOME WEST NORTHWEST AND GENERALLY MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK...THIS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHWEST BUT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS RETREATS TO THE WEST
DURING THE WEEK...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES WEST
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEA BOARD OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
HOLDS THE AREA UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK GRADIENTS. OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK A TROUGH FORMS OVER THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SAGS SOUTH AND WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY DURING THE WEEK WHILE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN. HENCE MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EAST SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN
AFTER THURSDAY. SEVERAL BANDS OF MOISTURE IN WEAK TROUGHS OR
WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY...TUESDAY...LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS INCREASED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT
IN THE SHADOWS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT DUE TO THEIR SIZE AND MOVEMENT
OF 17 KNOTS...ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WERE SEEN AND ONLY A FEW
PASSED OVER LAND. AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...SEVERAL BANDS OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE FIRST IS
RELATIVELY SMALL BUT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA INCREASING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TODAY. ARRIVING AFTER MOST OF THE
HEATING IS ACCOMPLISHED...THIS AREA OF MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE SOME
ACTIVE CONVECTION AND SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN WESTERN
PUERTO RICO INCLUDING SOME LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. AFTER AN INTERMISSION BETTER MOISTURE FOLLOWS ABOUT 24
HOURS BEHIND AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE ON
TUESDAY. IN FACT THE GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING
2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AT 02/18Z. MOISTURE THEN ABATES UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT THEN...AT LEAST ON THE
WINDWARD SIDE OF PUERTO RICO AND IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
BECOME HEAVY ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT EXCEED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING...ALTHOUGH GREATER AMOUNTS THAN TODAY AND TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE TAKES ON MORE OF AN INVERTED
V SHAPE. ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES SHOW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OUT OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST FRIDAY SIMILAR TO THE FALSE ALARMS
OF LAST WEEK. IT MOVES IT NORTH OF 20 NORTH BEFORE 50 WEST BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHERE IT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO AFFECT PUERTO
RICO OR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT LOCAL TAF SITES. VCSH AT TJSJ AND LOCAL
ISLANDS THRU MORNING HOURS. THEN IN THE AFTERNOON...SHRA POSSIBLE
WITH CHANCE OF TSRA FOR TJMZ AND VCTS FOR TJBQ TIL AROUND 01/22Z.
WNDS E-SE AT 10-15 KTS FM SFC TO FL200 ON LABOR DAY...WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS. MTN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED AFT 01/16Z AREA WIDE...AND
AS EARLY AS 01/10Z OVER THE HIGHEST MTN TOPS OF EL YUNQUE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL INCREASE TO AS MUCH AS 5 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THEN RETURN TO 3 TO 4 FEET THEREAFTER. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL BEYOND AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  79  90  79 /  40  30  40  30
STT  88  79  89  80 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010902
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
502 AM AST MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS
WILL MOVE WESTWARD TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND ALLOW A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO. ON THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EXPAND OVER THE LOCAL AREA CAUSING WINDS TO
BECOME WEST NORTHWEST AND GENERALLY MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK...THIS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHWEST BUT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS RETREATS TO THE WEST
DURING THE WEEK...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES WEST
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEA BOARD OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
HOLDS THE AREA UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK GRADIENTS. OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK A TROUGH FORMS OVER THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SAGS SOUTH AND WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY DURING THE WEEK WHILE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN. HENCE MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EAST SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN
AFTER THURSDAY. SEVERAL BANDS OF MOISTURE IN WEAK TROUGHS OR
WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY...TUESDAY...LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS INCREASED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT
IN THE SHADOWS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT DUE TO THEIR SIZE AND MOVEMENT
OF 17 KNOTS...ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WERE SEEN AND ONLY A FEW
PASSED OVER LAND. AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...SEVERAL BANDS OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE FIRST IS
RELATIVELY SMALL BUT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA INCREASING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TODAY. ARRIVING AFTER MOST OF THE
HEATING IS ACCOMPLISHED...THIS AREA OF MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE SOME
ACTIVE CONVECTION AND SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN WESTERN
PUERTO RICO INCLUDING SOME LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. AFTER AN INTERMISSION BETTER MOISTURE FOLLOWS ABOUT 24
HOURS BEHIND AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE ON
TUESDAY. IN FACT THE GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING
2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AT 02/18Z. MOISTURE THEN ABATES UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT THEN...AT LEAST ON THE
WINDWARD SIDE OF PUERTO RICO AND IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
BECOME HEAVY ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT EXCEED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING...ALTHOUGH GREATER AMOUNTS THAN TODAY AND TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE TAKES ON MORE OF AN INVERTED
V SHAPE. ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES SHOW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OUT OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST FRIDAY SIMILAR TO THE FALSE ALARMS
OF LAST WEEK. IT MOVES IT NORTH OF 20 NORTH BEFORE 50 WEST BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHERE IT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO AFFECT PUERTO
RICO OR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT LOCAL TAF SITES. VCSH AT TJSJ AND LOCAL
ISLANDS THRU MORNING HOURS. THEN IN THE AFTERNOON...SHRA POSSIBLE
WITH CHANCE OF TSRA FOR TJMZ AND VCTS FOR TJBQ TIL AROUND 01/22Z.
WNDS E-SE AT 10-15 KTS FM SFC TO FL200 ON LABOR DAY...WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS. MTN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED AFT 01/16Z AREA WIDE...AND
AS EARLY AS 01/10Z OVER THE HIGHEST MTN TOPS OF EL YUNQUE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL INCREASE TO AS MUCH AS 5 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THEN RETURN TO 3 TO 4 FEET THEREAFTER. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL BEYOND AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  79  90  79 /  40  30  40  30
STT  88  79  89  80 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010902
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
502 AM AST MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS
WILL MOVE WESTWARD TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND ALLOW A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO. ON THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EXPAND OVER THE LOCAL AREA CAUSING WINDS TO
BECOME WEST NORTHWEST AND GENERALLY MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK...THIS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHWEST BUT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS RETREATS TO THE WEST
DURING THE WEEK...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES WEST
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEA BOARD OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
HOLDS THE AREA UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK GRADIENTS. OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK A TROUGH FORMS OVER THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SAGS SOUTH AND WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY DURING THE WEEK WHILE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN. HENCE MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EAST SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN
AFTER THURSDAY. SEVERAL BANDS OF MOISTURE IN WEAK TROUGHS OR
WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY...TUESDAY...LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS INCREASED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT
IN THE SHADOWS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT DUE TO THEIR SIZE AND MOVEMENT
OF 17 KNOTS...ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WERE SEEN AND ONLY A FEW
PASSED OVER LAND. AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...SEVERAL BANDS OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE FIRST IS
RELATIVELY SMALL BUT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA INCREASING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TODAY. ARRIVING AFTER MOST OF THE
HEATING IS ACCOMPLISHED...THIS AREA OF MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE SOME
ACTIVE CONVECTION AND SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN WESTERN
PUERTO RICO INCLUDING SOME LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. AFTER AN INTERMISSION BETTER MOISTURE FOLLOWS ABOUT 24
HOURS BEHIND AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE ON
TUESDAY. IN FACT THE GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING
2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AT 02/18Z. MOISTURE THEN ABATES UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT THEN...AT LEAST ON THE
WINDWARD SIDE OF PUERTO RICO AND IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
BECOME HEAVY ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT EXCEED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING...ALTHOUGH GREATER AMOUNTS THAN TODAY AND TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE TAKES ON MORE OF AN INVERTED
V SHAPE. ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES SHOW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OUT OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST FRIDAY SIMILAR TO THE FALSE ALARMS
OF LAST WEEK. IT MOVES IT NORTH OF 20 NORTH BEFORE 50 WEST BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHERE IT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO AFFECT PUERTO
RICO OR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT LOCAL TAF SITES. VCSH AT TJSJ AND LOCAL
ISLANDS THRU MORNING HOURS. THEN IN THE AFTERNOON...SHRA POSSIBLE
WITH CHANCE OF TSRA FOR TJMZ AND VCTS FOR TJBQ TIL AROUND 01/22Z.
WNDS E-SE AT 10-15 KTS FM SFC TO FL200 ON LABOR DAY...WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS. MTN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED AFT 01/16Z AREA WIDE...AND
AS EARLY AS 01/10Z OVER THE HIGHEST MTN TOPS OF EL YUNQUE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL INCREASE TO AS MUCH AS 5 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THEN RETURN TO 3 TO 4 FEET THEREAFTER. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL BEYOND AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  79  90  79 /  40  30  40  30
STT  88  79  89  80 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010902
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
502 AM AST MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS
WILL MOVE WESTWARD TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND ALLOW A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO. ON THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EXPAND OVER THE LOCAL AREA CAUSING WINDS TO
BECOME WEST NORTHWEST AND GENERALLY MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK...THIS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHWEST BUT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS RETREATS TO THE WEST
DURING THE WEEK...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES WEST
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEA BOARD OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
HOLDS THE AREA UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK GRADIENTS. OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK A TROUGH FORMS OVER THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SAGS SOUTH AND WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY DURING THE WEEK WHILE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN. HENCE MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EAST SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN
AFTER THURSDAY. SEVERAL BANDS OF MOISTURE IN WEAK TROUGHS OR
WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY...TUESDAY...LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS INCREASED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT
IN THE SHADOWS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT DUE TO THEIR SIZE AND MOVEMENT
OF 17 KNOTS...ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WERE SEEN AND ONLY A FEW
PASSED OVER LAND. AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...SEVERAL BANDS OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE FIRST IS
RELATIVELY SMALL BUT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA INCREASING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TODAY. ARRIVING AFTER MOST OF THE
HEATING IS ACCOMPLISHED...THIS AREA OF MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE SOME
ACTIVE CONVECTION AND SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN WESTERN
PUERTO RICO INCLUDING SOME LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. AFTER AN INTERMISSION BETTER MOISTURE FOLLOWS ABOUT 24
HOURS BEHIND AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE ON
TUESDAY. IN FACT THE GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING
2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AT 02/18Z. MOISTURE THEN ABATES UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT THEN...AT LEAST ON THE
WINDWARD SIDE OF PUERTO RICO AND IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
BECOME HEAVY ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT EXCEED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING...ALTHOUGH GREATER AMOUNTS THAN TODAY AND TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE TAKES ON MORE OF AN INVERTED
V SHAPE. ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES SHOW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OUT OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST FRIDAY SIMILAR TO THE FALSE ALARMS
OF LAST WEEK. IT MOVES IT NORTH OF 20 NORTH BEFORE 50 WEST BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHERE IT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO AFFECT PUERTO
RICO OR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT LOCAL TAF SITES. VCSH AT TJSJ AND LOCAL
ISLANDS THRU MORNING HOURS. THEN IN THE AFTERNOON...SHRA POSSIBLE
WITH CHANCE OF TSRA FOR TJMZ AND VCTS FOR TJBQ TIL AROUND 01/22Z.
WNDS E-SE AT 10-15 KTS FM SFC TO FL200 ON LABOR DAY...WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS. MTN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED AFT 01/16Z AREA WIDE...AND
AS EARLY AS 01/10Z OVER THE HIGHEST MTN TOPS OF EL YUNQUE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL INCREASE TO AS MUCH AS 5 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THEN RETURN TO 3 TO 4 FEET THEREAFTER. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL BEYOND AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  79  90  79 /  40  30  40  30
STT  88  79  89  80 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010155
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
955 PM AST SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. LATEST
SATELITE AND RADAR IMAGES AS WELL AS LATEST 01/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING
INDICATED WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THESE
WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. NO CHANGES
NEEDED TO FORECAST GRIDS...AS FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONGOING
WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT LOCAL TAF SITES THRU THE PD...WITH VCSH AT TJSJ
AND TIST OVRNGHT. WNDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THRU AT LEAST
01/11Z...BCMG E-NE 10-20 KTS ON LABOR DAY...WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM AST SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CWA IN SPITE OF DECREASING
MOISTURE CURRENTLY ARRIVING FROM THE EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCTS SHOW THAT VALUES HAVE DROPPED OFF TO ABOUT 45 MM (1.77
IN.) AT USVI WITH STILL 48 MM (1.9 IN.) OVER WEST PR. SO NOT A LOT
OF GRADIENT HERE SO NO DRAMATIC DECREASE IN SHOWERS. HOWEVER RADAR
CLEARLY SHOWS THAT THE NUMBER OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED ON THE
SURROUNDING WATERS SINCE THIS MORNING. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDER
ARE INCREASING ACROSS WESTERN PR THEY ARE FEWER THAN OCCURRED ON
SAT. BY 06Z TONIGHT GFS INDICATES THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
DROP TO 1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT
DRYING ABOVE 850 MB.

SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS TONIGHT SINCE BETTER MOISTURE WILL STILL STRADLE THE
BOUNDARIES BUT TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO BE ISOLATED CLOSER TO LAND
WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE CONFINED TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

RELATIVELY DRIER WEATHER TO CONTINUE THRU TUE MORNING THEN A REMNANT
TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVES IN AFTERNOON. THE WAVE ITSELF LOOKS NEARLY
FLAT BUT THE MOISTURE WILL STILL PASS OVER. GFS EXPECTS 700 MB
THETA-E TO BE AROUND 331K...CLOSE TO TODAYS VALUE FOR WEST PR.

AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST
PR AFTER THRU 31/21Z. TEMPO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AT TJMZ. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION LIKELY ACROSS WEST/INTERIOR PR. VCTS POSSIBLE NEAR
TJPS/TJBQ AND VFR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. EASTERLY WINDS OF 10-20 KT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FM SFC TO FL150.

MARINE...CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER QUIET AND MODELS DO NOT INCREASE
WIND OR SEAS VERY MUCH ALL WEEK. GFS SHOWS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY ON WED LEADING TO A MINOR RISE IN
WINDS AND SEAS (NO MORE THAN 6 FT) BUT THEN BOTH DROP OFF AGAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE GREATLY
WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  90 /  20  30  30  30
STT  78  90  80  89 /  40  40  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

15/71








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010155
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
955 PM AST SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. LATEST
SATELITE AND RADAR IMAGES AS WELL AS LATEST 01/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING
INDICATED WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THESE
WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. NO CHANGES
NEEDED TO FORECAST GRIDS...AS FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONGOING
WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT LOCAL TAF SITES THRU THE PD...WITH VCSH AT TJSJ
AND TIST OVRNGHT. WNDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THRU AT LEAST
01/11Z...BCMG E-NE 10-20 KTS ON LABOR DAY...WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM AST SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CWA IN SPITE OF DECREASING
MOISTURE CURRENTLY ARRIVING FROM THE EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCTS SHOW THAT VALUES HAVE DROPPED OFF TO ABOUT 45 MM (1.77
IN.) AT USVI WITH STILL 48 MM (1.9 IN.) OVER WEST PR. SO NOT A LOT
OF GRADIENT HERE SO NO DRAMATIC DECREASE IN SHOWERS. HOWEVER RADAR
CLEARLY SHOWS THAT THE NUMBER OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED ON THE
SURROUNDING WATERS SINCE THIS MORNING. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDER
ARE INCREASING ACROSS WESTERN PR THEY ARE FEWER THAN OCCURRED ON
SAT. BY 06Z TONIGHT GFS INDICATES THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
DROP TO 1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT
DRYING ABOVE 850 MB.

SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS TONIGHT SINCE BETTER MOISTURE WILL STILL STRADLE THE
BOUNDARIES BUT TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO BE ISOLATED CLOSER TO LAND
WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE CONFINED TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

RELATIVELY DRIER WEATHER TO CONTINUE THRU TUE MORNING THEN A REMNANT
TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVES IN AFTERNOON. THE WAVE ITSELF LOOKS NEARLY
FLAT BUT THE MOISTURE WILL STILL PASS OVER. GFS EXPECTS 700 MB
THETA-E TO BE AROUND 331K...CLOSE TO TODAYS VALUE FOR WEST PR.

AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST
PR AFTER THRU 31/21Z. TEMPO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AT TJMZ. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION LIKELY ACROSS WEST/INTERIOR PR. VCTS POSSIBLE NEAR
TJPS/TJBQ AND VFR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. EASTERLY WINDS OF 10-20 KT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FM SFC TO FL150.

MARINE...CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER QUIET AND MODELS DO NOT INCREASE
WIND OR SEAS VERY MUCH ALL WEEK. GFS SHOWS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY ON WED LEADING TO A MINOR RISE IN
WINDS AND SEAS (NO MORE THAN 6 FT) BUT THEN BOTH DROP OFF AGAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE GREATLY
WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  90 /  20  30  30  30
STT  78  90  80  89 /  40  40  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

15/71







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010155
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
955 PM AST SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. LATEST
SATELITE AND RADAR IMAGES AS WELL AS LATEST 01/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING
INDICATED WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THESE
WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. NO CHANGES
NEEDED TO FORECAST GRIDS...AS FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONGOING
WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT LOCAL TAF SITES THRU THE PD...WITH VCSH AT TJSJ
AND TIST OVRNGHT. WNDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THRU AT LEAST
01/11Z...BCMG E-NE 10-20 KTS ON LABOR DAY...WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM AST SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CWA IN SPITE OF DECREASING
MOISTURE CURRENTLY ARRIVING FROM THE EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCTS SHOW THAT VALUES HAVE DROPPED OFF TO ABOUT 45 MM (1.77
IN.) AT USVI WITH STILL 48 MM (1.9 IN.) OVER WEST PR. SO NOT A LOT
OF GRADIENT HERE SO NO DRAMATIC DECREASE IN SHOWERS. HOWEVER RADAR
CLEARLY SHOWS THAT THE NUMBER OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED ON THE
SURROUNDING WATERS SINCE THIS MORNING. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDER
ARE INCREASING ACROSS WESTERN PR THEY ARE FEWER THAN OCCURRED ON
SAT. BY 06Z TONIGHT GFS INDICATES THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
DROP TO 1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT
DRYING ABOVE 850 MB.

SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS TONIGHT SINCE BETTER MOISTURE WILL STILL STRADLE THE
BOUNDARIES BUT TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO BE ISOLATED CLOSER TO LAND
WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE CONFINED TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

RELATIVELY DRIER WEATHER TO CONTINUE THRU TUE MORNING THEN A REMNANT
TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVES IN AFTERNOON. THE WAVE ITSELF LOOKS NEARLY
FLAT BUT THE MOISTURE WILL STILL PASS OVER. GFS EXPECTS 700 MB
THETA-E TO BE AROUND 331K...CLOSE TO TODAYS VALUE FOR WEST PR.

AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST
PR AFTER THRU 31/21Z. TEMPO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AT TJMZ. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION LIKELY ACROSS WEST/INTERIOR PR. VCTS POSSIBLE NEAR
TJPS/TJBQ AND VFR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. EASTERLY WINDS OF 10-20 KT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FM SFC TO FL150.

MARINE...CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER QUIET AND MODELS DO NOT INCREASE
WIND OR SEAS VERY MUCH ALL WEEK. GFS SHOWS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY ON WED LEADING TO A MINOR RISE IN
WINDS AND SEAS (NO MORE THAN 6 FT) BUT THEN BOTH DROP OFF AGAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE GREATLY
WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  90 /  20  30  30  30
STT  78  90  80  89 /  40  40  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

15/71








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010155
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
955 PM AST SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. LATEST
SATELITE AND RADAR IMAGES AS WELL AS LATEST 01/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING
INDICATED WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THESE
WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. NO CHANGES
NEEDED TO FORECAST GRIDS...AS FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONGOING
WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT LOCAL TAF SITES THRU THE PD...WITH VCSH AT TJSJ
AND TIST OVRNGHT. WNDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THRU AT LEAST
01/11Z...BCMG E-NE 10-20 KTS ON LABOR DAY...WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM AST SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CWA IN SPITE OF DECREASING
MOISTURE CURRENTLY ARRIVING FROM THE EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCTS SHOW THAT VALUES HAVE DROPPED OFF TO ABOUT 45 MM (1.77
IN.) AT USVI WITH STILL 48 MM (1.9 IN.) OVER WEST PR. SO NOT A LOT
OF GRADIENT HERE SO NO DRAMATIC DECREASE IN SHOWERS. HOWEVER RADAR
CLEARLY SHOWS THAT THE NUMBER OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED ON THE
SURROUNDING WATERS SINCE THIS MORNING. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDER
ARE INCREASING ACROSS WESTERN PR THEY ARE FEWER THAN OCCURRED ON
SAT. BY 06Z TONIGHT GFS INDICATES THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
DROP TO 1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT
DRYING ABOVE 850 MB.

SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS TONIGHT SINCE BETTER MOISTURE WILL STILL STRADLE THE
BOUNDARIES BUT TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO BE ISOLATED CLOSER TO LAND
WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE CONFINED TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

RELATIVELY DRIER WEATHER TO CONTINUE THRU TUE MORNING THEN A REMNANT
TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVES IN AFTERNOON. THE WAVE ITSELF LOOKS NEARLY
FLAT BUT THE MOISTURE WILL STILL PASS OVER. GFS EXPECTS 700 MB
THETA-E TO BE AROUND 331K...CLOSE TO TODAYS VALUE FOR WEST PR.

AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST
PR AFTER THRU 31/21Z. TEMPO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AT TJMZ. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION LIKELY ACROSS WEST/INTERIOR PR. VCTS POSSIBLE NEAR
TJPS/TJBQ AND VFR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. EASTERLY WINDS OF 10-20 KT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FM SFC TO FL150.

MARINE...CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER QUIET AND MODELS DO NOT INCREASE
WIND OR SEAS VERY MUCH ALL WEEK. GFS SHOWS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY ON WED LEADING TO A MINOR RISE IN
WINDS AND SEAS (NO MORE THAN 6 FT) BUT THEN BOTH DROP OFF AGAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE GREATLY
WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  90 /  20  30  30  30
STT  78  90  80  89 /  40  40  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

15/71







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 311846
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CWA IN SPITE OF DECREASING
MOISTURE CURRENTLY ARRIVING FROM THE EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCTS SHOW THAT VALUES HAVE DROPPED OFF TO ABOUT 45 MM (1.77
IN.) AT USVI WITH STILL 48 MM (1.9 IN.) OVER WEST PR. SO NOT A LOT
OF GRADIENT HERE SO NO DRAMATIC DECREASE IN SHOWERS. HOWEVER RADAR
CLEARLY SHOWS THAT THE NUMBER OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED ON THE
SURROUNDING WATERS SINCE THIS MORNING. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDER
ARE INCREASING ACROSS WESTERN PR THEY ARE FEWER THAN OCCURRED ON
SAT. BY 06Z TONIGHT GFS INDICATES THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
DROP TO 1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT
DRYING ABOVE 850 MB.

SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS TONIGHT SINCE BETTER MOISTURE WILL STILL STRADLE THE
BOUNDARIES BUT TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO BE ISOLATED CLOSER TO LAND
WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE CONFINED TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

RELATIVELY DRIER WEATHER TO CONTINUE THRU TUE MORNING THEN A REMNANT
TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVES IN AFTERNOON. THE WAVE ITSELF LOOKS NEARLY
FLAT BUT THE MOISTURE WILL STILL PASS OVER. GFS EXPECTS 700 MB
THETA-E TO BE AROUND 331K...CLOSE TO TODAYS VALUE FOR WEST PR.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST
PR AFTER THRU 31/21Z. TEMPO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AT TJMZ. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION LIKELY ACROSS WEST/INTERIOR PR. VCTS POSSIBLE NEAR
TJPS/TJBQ AND VFR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. EASTERLY WINDS OF 10-20 KT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FM SFC TO FL150.

&&

.MARINE...CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER QUIET AND MODELS DO NOT INCREASE
WIND OR SEAS VERY MUCH ALL WEEK. GFS SHOWS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY ON WED LEADING TO A MINOR RISE IN
WINDS AND SEAS (NO MORE THAN 6 FT) BUT THEN BOTH DROP OFF AGAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE GREATLY
WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  90 /  20  30  30  30
STT  78  90  80  89 /  40  40  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

11/54





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 311846
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CWA IN SPITE OF DECREASING
MOISTURE CURRENTLY ARRIVING FROM THE EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCTS SHOW THAT VALUES HAVE DROPPED OFF TO ABOUT 45 MM (1.77
IN.) AT USVI WITH STILL 48 MM (1.9 IN.) OVER WEST PR. SO NOT A LOT
OF GRADIENT HERE SO NO DRAMATIC DECREASE IN SHOWERS. HOWEVER RADAR
CLEARLY SHOWS THAT THE NUMBER OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED ON THE
SURROUNDING WATERS SINCE THIS MORNING. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDER
ARE INCREASING ACROSS WESTERN PR THEY ARE FEWER THAN OCCURRED ON
SAT. BY 06Z TONIGHT GFS INDICATES THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
DROP TO 1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT
DRYING ABOVE 850 MB.

SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS TONIGHT SINCE BETTER MOISTURE WILL STILL STRADLE THE
BOUNDARIES BUT TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO BE ISOLATED CLOSER TO LAND
WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE CONFINED TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

RELATIVELY DRIER WEATHER TO CONTINUE THRU TUE MORNING THEN A REMNANT
TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVES IN AFTERNOON. THE WAVE ITSELF LOOKS NEARLY
FLAT BUT THE MOISTURE WILL STILL PASS OVER. GFS EXPECTS 700 MB
THETA-E TO BE AROUND 331K...CLOSE TO TODAYS VALUE FOR WEST PR.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST
PR AFTER THRU 31/21Z. TEMPO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AT TJMZ. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION LIKELY ACROSS WEST/INTERIOR PR. VCTS POSSIBLE NEAR
TJPS/TJBQ AND VFR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. EASTERLY WINDS OF 10-20 KT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FM SFC TO FL150.

&&

.MARINE...CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER QUIET AND MODELS DO NOT INCREASE
WIND OR SEAS VERY MUCH ALL WEEK. GFS SHOWS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY ON WED LEADING TO A MINOR RISE IN
WINDS AND SEAS (NO MORE THAN 6 FT) BUT THEN BOTH DROP OFF AGAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE GREATLY
WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  90 /  20  30  30  30
STT  78  90  80  89 /  40  40  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

11/54






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 311521
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1121 AM AST SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OVER
THE USVI AS WELL AS THE EAST AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY...RESULTING
IN RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE BLENDED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOW DRIER AIR
UPSTREAM OF USVI/PR. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH
THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODERATE TRADE WINDS
WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PR. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES EXCEPT TJMZ
WHERE MVFR/IFR IS POSSIBLE DUE TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION. EASTERLY
WINDS OF 10-20 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FM SFC TO
FL150. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION LIKELY ACROSS WEST/INTERIOR PR.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 3-5 FT AND WINDS OF 14-18KT CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION DUE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PR BETWEEN MID-MORNING AND AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM AST SUN AUG 31 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL
REGION AND REMAINS AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TUTT LOW...NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...
MOVES WESTWARD. A WEAK TROPICAL ALONG 60 WEST THIS MORNING...IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE REGION BY TUESDAY.

DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FROM TIME
TO TIME. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST WIND FLOW OVER
THE REGION...ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...MOST AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
FEW DAYS...AS THE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES FURTHER
WEST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION...PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
EACH DAY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 60 WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD APPROACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON TUESDAY...INDUCING A
MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

AVIATION...VFR AT LCL TAF SITES...MOSTLY PASSING -SHRA/SHRA OVR
COASTAL WATERS BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS. SCT-BKN LOW CLDS BTW
FL020-FL100...SCT-BKN HI CLDS FL200 MAINLY W-NW OF PR. L/LVL WNDS
MAINLY FM E-NE 5-15 KTS UP FL100...BCMG S-SW 10-20 KTS UP TO FL350.
AFT 31/17Z TYPICAL SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FCST ACROSS CTRL AND W PR NR
TJMZ AND TJBQ...FEW -SHRA/SHRA VCTY REST OF TAF SITES TIL 31/22Z. NO
OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS ATTM.

MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAINS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  78  89  79 /  20  20  30  30
STT  88  78  90  80 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

11/54








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 311521
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1121 AM AST SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OVER
THE USVI AS WELL AS THE EAST AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY...RESULTING
IN RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE BLENDED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOW DRIER AIR
UPSTREAM OF USVI/PR. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH
THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODERATE TRADE WINDS
WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PR. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES EXCEPT TJMZ
WHERE MVFR/IFR IS POSSIBLE DUE TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION. EASTERLY
WINDS OF 10-20 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FM SFC TO
FL150. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION LIKELY ACROSS WEST/INTERIOR PR.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 3-5 FT AND WINDS OF 14-18KT CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION DUE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PR BETWEEN MID-MORNING AND AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM AST SUN AUG 31 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL
REGION AND REMAINS AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TUTT LOW...NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...
MOVES WESTWARD. A WEAK TROPICAL ALONG 60 WEST THIS MORNING...IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE REGION BY TUESDAY.

DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FROM TIME
TO TIME. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST WIND FLOW OVER
THE REGION...ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...MOST AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
FEW DAYS...AS THE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES FURTHER
WEST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION...PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
EACH DAY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 60 WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD APPROACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON TUESDAY...INDUCING A
MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

AVIATION...VFR AT LCL TAF SITES...MOSTLY PASSING -SHRA/SHRA OVR
COASTAL WATERS BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS. SCT-BKN LOW CLDS BTW
FL020-FL100...SCT-BKN HI CLDS FL200 MAINLY W-NW OF PR. L/LVL WNDS
MAINLY FM E-NE 5-15 KTS UP FL100...BCMG S-SW 10-20 KTS UP TO FL350.
AFT 31/17Z TYPICAL SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FCST ACROSS CTRL AND W PR NR
TJMZ AND TJBQ...FEW -SHRA/SHRA VCTY REST OF TAF SITES TIL 31/22Z. NO
OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS ATTM.

MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAINS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  78  89  79 /  20  20  30  30
STT  88  78  90  80 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

11/54









000
FXCA62 TJSJ 310818
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
418 AM AST SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL
REGION AND REMAINS AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TUTT LOW...NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...
MOVES WESTWARD. A WEAK TROPICAL ALONG 60 WEST THIS MORNING...IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE REGION BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FROM TIME
TO TIME. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST WIND FLOW OVER
THE REGION...ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...MOST AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
FEW DAYS...AS THE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES FURTHER
WEST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION...PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
EACH DAY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 60 WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD APPROACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON TUESDAY...INDUCING A
MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT LCL TAF SITES...MOSTLY PASSING -SHRA/SHRA OVR
COASTAL WATERS BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS. SCT-BKN LOW CLDS BTW
FL020-FL100...SCT-BKN HI CLDS FL200 MAINLY W-NW OF PR. L/LVL WNDS
MAINLY FM E-NE 5-15 KTS UP FL100...BCMG S-SW 10-20 KTS UP TO FL350.
AFT 31/17Z TYPICAL SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FCST ACROSS CTRL AND W PR NR
TJMZ AND TJBQ...FEW -SHRA/SHRA VCTY REST OF TAF SITES TIL 31/22Z. NO
OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAINS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  78  89  79 /  30  30  30  30
STT  88  78  90  80 /  30  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/72






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 310818
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
418 AM AST SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL
REGION AND REMAINS AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TUTT LOW...NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...
MOVES WESTWARD. A WEAK TROPICAL ALONG 60 WEST THIS MORNING...IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE REGION BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FROM TIME
TO TIME. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST WIND FLOW OVER
THE REGION...ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...MOST AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
FEW DAYS...AS THE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES FURTHER
WEST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION...PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
EACH DAY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 60 WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD APPROACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON TUESDAY...INDUCING A
MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT LCL TAF SITES...MOSTLY PASSING -SHRA/SHRA OVR
COASTAL WATERS BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS. SCT-BKN LOW CLDS BTW
FL020-FL100...SCT-BKN HI CLDS FL200 MAINLY W-NW OF PR. L/LVL WNDS
MAINLY FM E-NE 5-15 KTS UP FL100...BCMG S-SW 10-20 KTS UP TO FL350.
AFT 31/17Z TYPICAL SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FCST ACROSS CTRL AND W PR NR
TJMZ AND TJBQ...FEW -SHRA/SHRA VCTY REST OF TAF SITES TIL 31/22Z. NO
OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAINS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  78  89  79 /  30  30  30  30
STT  88  78  90  80 /  30  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/72





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