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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 270022
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
822 PM AST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY HAVE BEEN SHOWING OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE USVI AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF PR
SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
MORE DRY AND STABLE FOR THANKSGIVING...ADDITIONAL PASSING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR FROM TIME TO TIME.
TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN LESS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. IN GENERAL...
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS THE
REST OF THE WEEK...AS MOISTURE IS TO REMAIN IN SHORT SUPPLY. WE
DECIDED TO INCREASE THE POPS SLIGHTLY OVER EASTERN PR AND USVI...
THE REST OF TONIGHT AS PATCHES OF CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
ARE ADVECTING OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURG THE FCST PD. RAPIDLY PASSING
SHRA WILL BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDS TO LEEWARD ISLANDS TIST/TISX/TJSJ
AS ONE MORE BAND PASSES. SIGNIFICANT DRYING TO BEGIN AFT 27/06Z WITH
VFR CONDS ALL TAF SITES BY 27/12Z AND FEW IF ANY MTN OBSCURATIONS
THEREAFTER TILL AFT 28/02Z. LLVL WINDS E AT 15 TO 25 KT...BUT GENLY
LESS THAN 15 KT AT THE SFC. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THRU 28/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND RELOCATES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THEN...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECTED SEAS OF 3-6 FT
AND WINDS OF 13-18 KT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS FRESH TO STRONG WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM AST WED NOV 26 2014/

SYNOPSIS...RETROGRESSING TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO...WHILE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
FLATTENS. LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ONCE AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH FEW PASSING SHOWERS
OBSERVED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS EASTERN PUERTO
RICO. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND NEAR 80 DEGREES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WERE GENERALLY
FROM THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND
HIGHER GUSTS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...AS THE
CONVERGENT SIDE OF RETROGRESSING TUTT MAINTAINS A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH...MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY
UNDER WEAKENING TRADES...AN INDUCED/INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...
ASSOCIATED WITH TUTT ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FROM TIME TO TIME FOLLOWED BY SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND W
PUERTO RICO BOTH DAYS.

MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY/
SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO SUNDAY AS A SHEARLINE MOVES CLOSER TO
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS EVOLVING PATTERN COMBINED WITH WEAKENING
RIDGE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUED TREND OF PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
PUERTO RICO...MAINLY OVER AND SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS EACH DAY.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURG THE FCST PRD. HOWEVER...PASSING
-SHRA CANT BE RULED OUT OVER EASTERN PR...USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS
TAF SITES. NO SIG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE AT 10-25 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS CONDS...AFT 26/23Z WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING RAPIDLY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  85  74  84 /  40  10  10  30
STT  76  86  76  86 /  30  10  10  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST THURSDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

12/11






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 270022
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
822 PM AST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY HAVE BEEN SHOWING OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE USVI AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF PR
SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
MORE DRY AND STABLE FOR THANKSGIVING...ADDITIONAL PASSING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR FROM TIME TO TIME.
TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN LESS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. IN GENERAL...
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS THE
REST OF THE WEEK...AS MOISTURE IS TO REMAIN IN SHORT SUPPLY. WE
DECIDED TO INCREASE THE POPS SLIGHTLY OVER EASTERN PR AND USVI...
THE REST OF TONIGHT AS PATCHES OF CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
ARE ADVECTING OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURG THE FCST PD. RAPIDLY PASSING
SHRA WILL BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDS TO LEEWARD ISLANDS TIST/TISX/TJSJ
AS ONE MORE BAND PASSES. SIGNIFICANT DRYING TO BEGIN AFT 27/06Z WITH
VFR CONDS ALL TAF SITES BY 27/12Z AND FEW IF ANY MTN OBSCURATIONS
THEREAFTER TILL AFT 28/02Z. LLVL WINDS E AT 15 TO 25 KT...BUT GENLY
LESS THAN 15 KT AT THE SFC. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THRU 28/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND RELOCATES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THEN...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECTED SEAS OF 3-6 FT
AND WINDS OF 13-18 KT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS FRESH TO STRONG WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM AST WED NOV 26 2014/

SYNOPSIS...RETROGRESSING TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO...WHILE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
FLATTENS. LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ONCE AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH FEW PASSING SHOWERS
OBSERVED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS EASTERN PUERTO
RICO. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND NEAR 80 DEGREES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WERE GENERALLY
FROM THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND
HIGHER GUSTS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...AS THE
CONVERGENT SIDE OF RETROGRESSING TUTT MAINTAINS A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH...MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY
UNDER WEAKENING TRADES...AN INDUCED/INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...
ASSOCIATED WITH TUTT ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FROM TIME TO TIME FOLLOWED BY SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND W
PUERTO RICO BOTH DAYS.

MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY/
SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO SUNDAY AS A SHEARLINE MOVES CLOSER TO
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS EVOLVING PATTERN COMBINED WITH WEAKENING
RIDGE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUED TREND OF PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
PUERTO RICO...MAINLY OVER AND SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS EACH DAY.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURG THE FCST PRD. HOWEVER...PASSING
-SHRA CANT BE RULED OUT OVER EASTERN PR...USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS
TAF SITES. NO SIG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE AT 10-25 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS CONDS...AFT 26/23Z WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING RAPIDLY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  85  74  84 /  40  10  10  30
STT  76  86  76  86 /  30  10  10  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST THURSDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

12/11





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 261826
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
226 PM AST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RETROGRESSING TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO...WHILE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
FLATTENS. LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ONCE AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH FEW PASSING SHOWERS
OBSERVED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS EASTERN PUERTO
RICO. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND NEAR 80 DEGREES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WERE GENERALLY
FROM THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND
HIGHER GUSTS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...AS THE
CONVERGENT SIDE OF RETROGRESSING TUTT MAINTAINS A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH...MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY
UNDER WEAKENING TRADES...AN INDUCED/INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...
ASSOCIATED WITH TUTT ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FROM TIME TO TIME FOLLOWED BY SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND W
PUERTO RICO BOTH DAYS.

MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY/
SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO SUNDAY AS A SHEARLINE MOVES CLOSER TO
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS EVOLVING PATTERN COMBINED WITH WEAKENING
RIDGE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUED TREND OF PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
PUERTO RICO...MAINLY OVER AND SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURG THE FCST PRD. HOWEVER...PASSING
-SHRA CANT BE RULED OUT OVER EASTERN PR...USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS
TAF SITES. NO SIG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE AT 10-25 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS CONDS...AFT 26/23Z WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING RAPIDLY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  85  74  84 /  30  10  10  30
STT  76  86  76  86 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST THURSDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM
     TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-COASTAL WATERS
     OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

27/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 261826
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
226 PM AST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RETROGRESSING TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO...WHILE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
FLATTENS. LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ONCE AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH FEW PASSING SHOWERS
OBSERVED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS EASTERN PUERTO
RICO. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND NEAR 80 DEGREES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WERE GENERALLY
FROM THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND
HIGHER GUSTS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...AS THE
CONVERGENT SIDE OF RETROGRESSING TUTT MAINTAINS A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH...MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY
UNDER WEAKENING TRADES...AN INDUCED/INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...
ASSOCIATED WITH TUTT ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FROM TIME TO TIME FOLLOWED BY SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND W
PUERTO RICO BOTH DAYS.

MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY/
SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO SUNDAY AS A SHEARLINE MOVES CLOSER TO
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS EVOLVING PATTERN COMBINED WITH WEAKENING
RIDGE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUED TREND OF PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
PUERTO RICO...MAINLY OVER AND SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURG THE FCST PRD. HOWEVER...PASSING
-SHRA CANT BE RULED OUT OVER EASTERN PR...USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS
TAF SITES. NO SIG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE AT 10-25 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS CONDS...AFT 26/23Z WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING RAPIDLY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  85  74  84 /  30  10  10  30
STT  76  86  76  86 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST THURSDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM
     TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-COASTAL WATERS
     OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

27/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 261826
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
226 PM AST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RETROGRESSING TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO...WHILE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
FLATTENS. LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ONCE AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH FEW PASSING SHOWERS
OBSERVED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS EASTERN PUERTO
RICO. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND NEAR 80 DEGREES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WERE GENERALLY
FROM THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND
HIGHER GUSTS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...AS THE
CONVERGENT SIDE OF RETROGRESSING TUTT MAINTAINS A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH...MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY
UNDER WEAKENING TRADES...AN INDUCED/INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...
ASSOCIATED WITH TUTT ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FROM TIME TO TIME FOLLOWED BY SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND W
PUERTO RICO BOTH DAYS.

MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY/
SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO SUNDAY AS A SHEARLINE MOVES CLOSER TO
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS EVOLVING PATTERN COMBINED WITH WEAKENING
RIDGE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUED TREND OF PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
PUERTO RICO...MAINLY OVER AND SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURG THE FCST PRD. HOWEVER...PASSING
-SHRA CANT BE RULED OUT OVER EASTERN PR...USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS
TAF SITES. NO SIG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE AT 10-25 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS CONDS...AFT 26/23Z WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING RAPIDLY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  85  74  84 /  30  10  10  30
STT  76  86  76  86 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST THURSDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM
     TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-COASTAL WATERS
     OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

27/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 261826
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
226 PM AST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RETROGRESSING TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO...WHILE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
FLATTENS. LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ONCE AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH FEW PASSING SHOWERS
OBSERVED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS EASTERN PUERTO
RICO. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND NEAR 80 DEGREES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WERE GENERALLY
FROM THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND
HIGHER GUSTS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...AS THE
CONVERGENT SIDE OF RETROGRESSING TUTT MAINTAINS A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH...MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY
UNDER WEAKENING TRADES...AN INDUCED/INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...
ASSOCIATED WITH TUTT ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FROM TIME TO TIME FOLLOWED BY SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND W
PUERTO RICO BOTH DAYS.

MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY/
SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO SUNDAY AS A SHEARLINE MOVES CLOSER TO
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS EVOLVING PATTERN COMBINED WITH WEAKENING
RIDGE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUED TREND OF PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
PUERTO RICO...MAINLY OVER AND SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURG THE FCST PRD. HOWEVER...PASSING
-SHRA CANT BE RULED OUT OVER EASTERN PR...USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS
TAF SITES. NO SIG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE AT 10-25 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS CONDS...AFT 26/23Z WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING RAPIDLY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  85  74  84 /  30  10  10  30
STT  76  86  76  86 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST THURSDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM
     TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-COASTAL WATERS
     OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

27/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 261602
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1202 PM AST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES WERE MADE. A DRY SLOT STILL OBSERVED BY SATELLITES
IMAGES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE SOUNDING
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) REPORTED 1.68 INCHES...SUGGESTING
VALUES AROUND THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN VALUES FOR THE MONTH OF
NOVEMBER. THEREFORE...CONTINUE TO EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE
WIND PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS DUE TO WINDS UP TO 21 KTS AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET.
WINDS DIMINISHING TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AS SURFACE GRADIENT WEAKENS
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM AST WED NOV 26 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL RETROGRESS
TOWARD 60W BY THANKSGIVING DAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ON
FRI THEN FLATTEN DURING THE WEEKEND AS SRN STREAM TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE SW ATLC.

DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON BACKSIDE OF RETROGRESSING
UPPER LOW WILL MAINTAIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THROUGH 12Z
SAT GREATLY INHIBITING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. A SRN STREAM TROF WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC NORTH OF 20N DURING THE WEEEKEND AND ERODE
THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PROMOTING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON OVR INLAND AREAS. WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN SAT INTO MID
NEXT WEEK ENHANCING NOCTURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON WINDWARD AREAS.
THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST SUN INTO WED
FAVORING MAINLY THE SOUTH COAST FOR PRECIP DURING THE DAY AND
NORTHEAST PR AT NIGHT.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15-25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIG
OPERATIONAL WX IMPACT AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...NOT AS WINDY TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH WINDS UP TO
20 KT. WINDS DIMINISH RAPIDLY TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES
SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT.
WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN SAT INTO MID NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS UP TO 20
KT AND SEAS BUILDING 5-7 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  78  85  75 /  30  30  10  10
STT  87  79  85  78 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST THURSDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM
     TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-COASTAL WATERS
     OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

27/23





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 261602
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1202 PM AST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES WERE MADE. A DRY SLOT STILL OBSERVED BY SATELLITES
IMAGES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE SOUNDING
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) REPORTED 1.68 INCHES...SUGGESTING
VALUES AROUND THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN VALUES FOR THE MONTH OF
NOVEMBER. THEREFORE...CONTINUE TO EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE
WIND PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS DUE TO WINDS UP TO 21 KTS AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET.
WINDS DIMINISHING TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AS SURFACE GRADIENT WEAKENS
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM AST WED NOV 26 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL RETROGRESS
TOWARD 60W BY THANKSGIVING DAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ON
FRI THEN FLATTEN DURING THE WEEKEND AS SRN STREAM TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE SW ATLC.

DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON BACKSIDE OF RETROGRESSING
UPPER LOW WILL MAINTAIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THROUGH 12Z
SAT GREATLY INHIBITING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. A SRN STREAM TROF WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC NORTH OF 20N DURING THE WEEEKEND AND ERODE
THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PROMOTING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON OVR INLAND AREAS. WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN SAT INTO MID
NEXT WEEK ENHANCING NOCTURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON WINDWARD AREAS.
THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST SUN INTO WED
FAVORING MAINLY THE SOUTH COAST FOR PRECIP DURING THE DAY AND
NORTHEAST PR AT NIGHT.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15-25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIG
OPERATIONAL WX IMPACT AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...NOT AS WINDY TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH WINDS UP TO
20 KT. WINDS DIMINISH RAPIDLY TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES
SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT.
WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN SAT INTO MID NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS UP TO 20
KT AND SEAS BUILDING 5-7 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  78  85  75 /  30  30  10  10
STT  87  79  85  78 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST THURSDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM
     TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-COASTAL WATERS
     OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

27/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 260740
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
340 AM AST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL RETROGRESS
TOWARD 60W BY THANKSGIVING DAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ON
FRI THEN FLATTEN DURING THE WEEKEND AS SRN STREAM TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE SW ATLC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON BACKSIDE OF RETROGRESSING
UPPER LOW WILL MAINTAIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THROUGH 12Z
SAT GREATLY INHIBITING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. A SRN STREAM TROF WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC NORTH OF 20N DURING THE WEEEKEND AND ERODE
THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PROMOTING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON OVR INLAND AREAS. WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN SAT INTO MID
NEXT WEEK ENHANCING NOCTURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON WINDWARD AREAS.
THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST SUN INTO WED
FAVORING MAINLY THE SOUTH COAST FOR PRECIP DURING THE DAY AND
NORTHEAST PR AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15-25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIG
OPERATIONAL WX IMPACT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...NOT AS WINDY TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH WINDS UP TO
20 KT. WINDS DIMINISH RAPIDLY TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES
SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT.
WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN SAT INTO MID NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS UP TO 20
KT AND SEAS BUILDING 5-7 FT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  78  85  75 /  30  30  10  10
STT  87  79  85  78 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

13/64











000
FXCA62 TJSJ 260740
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
340 AM AST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL RETROGRESS
TOWARD 60W BY THANKSGIVING DAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ON
FRI THEN FLATTEN DURING THE WEEKEND AS SRN STREAM TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE SW ATLC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON BACKSIDE OF RETROGRESSING
UPPER LOW WILL MAINTAIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THROUGH 12Z
SAT GREATLY INHIBITING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. A SRN STREAM TROF WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC NORTH OF 20N DURING THE WEEEKEND AND ERODE
THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PROMOTING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON OVR INLAND AREAS. WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN SAT INTO MID
NEXT WEEK ENHANCING NOCTURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON WINDWARD AREAS.
THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST SUN INTO WED
FAVORING MAINLY THE SOUTH COAST FOR PRECIP DURING THE DAY AND
NORTHEAST PR AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15-25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIG
OPERATIONAL WX IMPACT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...NOT AS WINDY TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH WINDS UP TO
20 KT. WINDS DIMINISH RAPIDLY TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES
SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT.
WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN SAT INTO MID NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS UP TO 20
KT AND SEAS BUILDING 5-7 FT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  78  85  75 /  30  30  10  10
STT  87  79  85  78 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

13/64











000
FXCA62 TJSJ 260740
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
340 AM AST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL RETROGRESS
TOWARD 60W BY THANKSGIVING DAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ON
FRI THEN FLATTEN DURING THE WEEKEND AS SRN STREAM TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE SW ATLC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON BACKSIDE OF RETROGRESSING
UPPER LOW WILL MAINTAIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THROUGH 12Z
SAT GREATLY INHIBITING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. A SRN STREAM TROF WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC NORTH OF 20N DURING THE WEEEKEND AND ERODE
THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PROMOTING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON OVR INLAND AREAS. WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN SAT INTO MID
NEXT WEEK ENHANCING NOCTURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON WINDWARD AREAS.
THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST SUN INTO WED
FAVORING MAINLY THE SOUTH COAST FOR PRECIP DURING THE DAY AND
NORTHEAST PR AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15-25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIG
OPERATIONAL WX IMPACT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...NOT AS WINDY TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH WINDS UP TO
20 KT. WINDS DIMINISH RAPIDLY TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES
SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT.
WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN SAT INTO MID NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS UP TO 20
KT AND SEAS BUILDING 5-7 FT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  78  85  75 /  30  30  10  10
STT  87  79  85  78 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

13/64











000
FXCA62 TJSJ 260740
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
340 AM AST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL RETROGRESS
TOWARD 60W BY THANKSGIVING DAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ON
FRI THEN FLATTEN DURING THE WEEKEND AS SRN STREAM TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE SW ATLC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON BACKSIDE OF RETROGRESSING
UPPER LOW WILL MAINTAIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THROUGH 12Z
SAT GREATLY INHIBITING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. A SRN STREAM TROF WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC NORTH OF 20N DURING THE WEEEKEND AND ERODE
THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PROMOTING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON OVR INLAND AREAS. WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN SAT INTO MID
NEXT WEEK ENHANCING NOCTURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON WINDWARD AREAS.
THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST SUN INTO WED
FAVORING MAINLY THE SOUTH COAST FOR PRECIP DURING THE DAY AND
NORTHEAST PR AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15-25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIG
OPERATIONAL WX IMPACT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...NOT AS WINDY TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH WINDS UP TO
20 KT. WINDS DIMINISH RAPIDLY TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES
SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT.
WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN SAT INTO MID NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS UP TO 20
KT AND SEAS BUILDING 5-7 FT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  78  85  75 /  30  30  10  10
STT  87  79  85  78 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

13/64











000
FXCA62 TJSJ 260259
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1059 PM AST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE WELL INITIALIZED AS
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTED. THEREFORE...A DRY
SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DIMINISHING
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION TO PROMOTE LIGHT TRADE WIND SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURG THE FCST PRD. HOWEVER...EXPECT
SCT L/LVL CLD LYRS BLO FL100 WITH FEW PASSING -SHRA EN ROUTE BTW ERN
PR AND NRN LEEWARDS MAINLY OVR COASTAL WATERS FM 26/06Z-26/13Z. NO
SIG CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT EN ROUTE BTW ISLANDS WITH NO SIG RESTRICTIONS
IN VIS ATTM. STRONG PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE AT
15-25 KTS BLO FL200 THEN BACKING AND BCMG MORE NRLY ABV. NO SIG
OPERATIONAL WX IMPACT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
CREATING CHOPPY TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS.
WINDS OF UP TO 22 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 8 FEET WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUE IN EFFECT
AT LEAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH BY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT AND THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM AST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS FLATTEN TONIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL STRENGTHEN EARLY WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS INTO
MIDWEEK.

DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
LATE IN THE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF
THE SHOWERS THE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MINIMAL. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN BREEZE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THESE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO TRANSPORT SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TIME TO TIME
TONIGHT AFFECTING MOSTLY THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE A GENERAL DRY AND
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS MOST PART OF
WEDNESDAY AND UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE TYPICAL PASSING
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ARE STILL EXPECTED. NOT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA TONIGHT
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER TIST AND TJSJ.
LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 30 KNOTS
ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 25K FEET...BECOMING NORTHERLY
ALOFT.

MARINE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE RAPID WEAKENING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-7 FT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THEN SUBSIDE RAPIDLY TO 3-5
FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 5-7
FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  85  74  83 /  20  30  30  10
STT  77  86  75  86 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

09/27






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 260259
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1059 PM AST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE WELL INITIALIZED AS
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTED. THEREFORE...A DRY
SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DIMINISHING
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION TO PROMOTE LIGHT TRADE WIND SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURG THE FCST PRD. HOWEVER...EXPECT
SCT L/LVL CLD LYRS BLO FL100 WITH FEW PASSING -SHRA EN ROUTE BTW ERN
PR AND NRN LEEWARDS MAINLY OVR COASTAL WATERS FM 26/06Z-26/13Z. NO
SIG CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT EN ROUTE BTW ISLANDS WITH NO SIG RESTRICTIONS
IN VIS ATTM. STRONG PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE AT
15-25 KTS BLO FL200 THEN BACKING AND BCMG MORE NRLY ABV. NO SIG
OPERATIONAL WX IMPACT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
CREATING CHOPPY TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS.
WINDS OF UP TO 22 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 8 FEET WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUE IN EFFECT
AT LEAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH BY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT AND THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM AST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS FLATTEN TONIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL STRENGTHEN EARLY WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS INTO
MIDWEEK.

DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
LATE IN THE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF
THE SHOWERS THE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MINIMAL. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN BREEZE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THESE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO TRANSPORT SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TIME TO TIME
TONIGHT AFFECTING MOSTLY THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE A GENERAL DRY AND
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS MOST PART OF
WEDNESDAY AND UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE TYPICAL PASSING
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ARE STILL EXPECTED. NOT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA TONIGHT
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER TIST AND TJSJ.
LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 30 KNOTS
ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 25K FEET...BECOMING NORTHERLY
ALOFT.

MARINE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE RAPID WEAKENING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-7 FT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THEN SUBSIDE RAPIDLY TO 3-5
FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 5-7
FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  85  74  83 /  20  30  30  10
STT  77  86  75  86 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

09/27







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 251823
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
223 PM AST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS FLATTEN TONIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL STRENGTHEN EARLY WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS INTO
MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
LATE IN THE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF
THE SHOWERS THE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MINIMAL. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN BREEZE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THESE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO TRANSPORT SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TIME TO TIME
TONIGHT AFFECTING MOSTLY THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE A GENERAL DRY AND
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS MOST PART OF
WEDNESDAY AND UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE TYPICAL PASSING
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ARE STILL EXPECTED. NOT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA TONIGHT
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER TIST AND TJSJ.
LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 30 KNOTS
ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 25K FEET...BECOMING NORTHERLY
ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE RAPID WEAKENING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-7 FT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THEN SUBSIDE RAPIDLY TO 3-5
FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 5-7
FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  85  74  83 /  20  30  30  10
STT  77  86  75  86 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

71/72





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 251823
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
223 PM AST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS FLATTEN TONIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL STRENGTHEN EARLY WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS INTO
MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
LATE IN THE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF
THE SHOWERS THE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MINIMAL. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN BREEZE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THESE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO TRANSPORT SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TIME TO TIME
TONIGHT AFFECTING MOSTLY THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE A GENERAL DRY AND
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS MOST PART OF
WEDNESDAY AND UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE TYPICAL PASSING
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ARE STILL EXPECTED. NOT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA TONIGHT
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER TIST AND TJSJ.
LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 30 KNOTS
ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 25K FEET...BECOMING NORTHERLY
ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE RAPID WEAKENING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-7 FT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THEN SUBSIDE RAPIDLY TO 3-5
FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 5-7
FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  85  74  83 /  20  30  30  10
STT  77  86  75  86 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

71/72






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 251457
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1057 AM AST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A PATCH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WAS LOCATED LATE THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO.
THIS PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
AFFECTING MAINLY THE EAST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELITE IMAGES SHOWED AN AREA OF DRIER AIR JUST
OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SLOT OF DRIER AIR IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL TRANSPORT
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
TIST...TJSJ AND TJBQ AS PASSING SHOWERS AFFECT THE TERMINAL FROM
TIME TO TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS AND
GUSTY.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM AST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SYNOPSIS...CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL
RETROGRESS TOWARD 60W BY THANKSGIVING DAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
THEN BUILD FRI THEN FLATTEN DURING THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY THEN
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND WED THEN WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY WED NIGHT
THROUGH FRI. SCT LIGHT SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED TODAY IN A MOIST
EAST FLOW. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS TONIGHT ON BACKSIDE
OF RETROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL LOW LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING FROM THE NORTH WED AND MID
LEVEL COOLING WILL HELP TRIGGER SCT SHOWERS WED-WED NIGHT MAINLY
OVR THE ERN HALF OF PR. DRYING EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND
THROUGH FRI WITH MOISTURE RECOVERY EXPECTED SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT
AS TRADES STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND RRQ
JET STREAK DYNAMICS FROM A SRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...EXPECT SCT LAYERS BLO FL100 WITH PASSING SHRA AND VCSH
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND EN ROUTE BTW LEEWARD ISLANDS...USVI
TERMINALS AND EASTERN PR. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
15-25 KT.

MARINE...WINDS 20-25 KT TODAY THEN DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT
AND WED WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. SEAS 6-8
FT TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO 5-7 FT TONIGHT AND WED THEN SUBSIDE
RAPIDLY TO 3-5 FT WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN
AGAIN LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS GRADUALLY
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  81  85  79 /  30  20  30  30
STT  82  81  82  80 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

71/72






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 251457
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1057 AM AST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A PATCH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WAS LOCATED LATE THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO.
THIS PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
AFFECTING MAINLY THE EAST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELITE IMAGES SHOWED AN AREA OF DRIER AIR JUST
OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SLOT OF DRIER AIR IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL TRANSPORT
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
TIST...TJSJ AND TJBQ AS PASSING SHOWERS AFFECT THE TERMINAL FROM
TIME TO TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS AND
GUSTY.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM AST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SYNOPSIS...CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL
RETROGRESS TOWARD 60W BY THANKSGIVING DAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
THEN BUILD FRI THEN FLATTEN DURING THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY THEN
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND WED THEN WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY WED NIGHT
THROUGH FRI. SCT LIGHT SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED TODAY IN A MOIST
EAST FLOW. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS TONIGHT ON BACKSIDE
OF RETROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL LOW LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING FROM THE NORTH WED AND MID
LEVEL COOLING WILL HELP TRIGGER SCT SHOWERS WED-WED NIGHT MAINLY
OVR THE ERN HALF OF PR. DRYING EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND
THROUGH FRI WITH MOISTURE RECOVERY EXPECTED SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT
AS TRADES STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND RRQ
JET STREAK DYNAMICS FROM A SRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...EXPECT SCT LAYERS BLO FL100 WITH PASSING SHRA AND VCSH
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND EN ROUTE BTW LEEWARD ISLANDS...USVI
TERMINALS AND EASTERN PR. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
15-25 KT.

MARINE...WINDS 20-25 KT TODAY THEN DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT
AND WED WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. SEAS 6-8
FT TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO 5-7 FT TONIGHT AND WED THEN SUBSIDE
RAPIDLY TO 3-5 FT WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN
AGAIN LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS GRADUALLY
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  81  85  79 /  30  20  30  30
STT  82  81  82  80 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

71/72






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 251457
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1057 AM AST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A PATCH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WAS LOCATED LATE THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO.
THIS PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
AFFECTING MAINLY THE EAST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELITE IMAGES SHOWED AN AREA OF DRIER AIR JUST
OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SLOT OF DRIER AIR IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL TRANSPORT
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
TIST...TJSJ AND TJBQ AS PASSING SHOWERS AFFECT THE TERMINAL FROM
TIME TO TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS AND
GUSTY.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM AST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SYNOPSIS...CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL
RETROGRESS TOWARD 60W BY THANKSGIVING DAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
THEN BUILD FRI THEN FLATTEN DURING THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY THEN
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND WED THEN WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY WED NIGHT
THROUGH FRI. SCT LIGHT SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED TODAY IN A MOIST
EAST FLOW. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS TONIGHT ON BACKSIDE
OF RETROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL LOW LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING FROM THE NORTH WED AND MID
LEVEL COOLING WILL HELP TRIGGER SCT SHOWERS WED-WED NIGHT MAINLY
OVR THE ERN HALF OF PR. DRYING EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND
THROUGH FRI WITH MOISTURE RECOVERY EXPECTED SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT
AS TRADES STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND RRQ
JET STREAK DYNAMICS FROM A SRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...EXPECT SCT LAYERS BLO FL100 WITH PASSING SHRA AND VCSH
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND EN ROUTE BTW LEEWARD ISLANDS...USVI
TERMINALS AND EASTERN PR. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
15-25 KT.

MARINE...WINDS 20-25 KT TODAY THEN DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT
AND WED WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. SEAS 6-8
FT TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO 5-7 FT TONIGHT AND WED THEN SUBSIDE
RAPIDLY TO 3-5 FT WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN
AGAIN LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS GRADUALLY
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  81  85  79 /  30  20  30  30
STT  82  81  82  80 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

71/72






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 251457
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1057 AM AST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A PATCH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WAS LOCATED LATE THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO.
THIS PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
AFFECTING MAINLY THE EAST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELITE IMAGES SHOWED AN AREA OF DRIER AIR JUST
OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SLOT OF DRIER AIR IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL TRANSPORT
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
TIST...TJSJ AND TJBQ AS PASSING SHOWERS AFFECT THE TERMINAL FROM
TIME TO TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS AND
GUSTY.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM AST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SYNOPSIS...CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL
RETROGRESS TOWARD 60W BY THANKSGIVING DAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
THEN BUILD FRI THEN FLATTEN DURING THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY THEN
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND WED THEN WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY WED NIGHT
THROUGH FRI. SCT LIGHT SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED TODAY IN A MOIST
EAST FLOW. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS TONIGHT ON BACKSIDE
OF RETROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL LOW LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING FROM THE NORTH WED AND MID
LEVEL COOLING WILL HELP TRIGGER SCT SHOWERS WED-WED NIGHT MAINLY
OVR THE ERN HALF OF PR. DRYING EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND
THROUGH FRI WITH MOISTURE RECOVERY EXPECTED SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT
AS TRADES STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND RRQ
JET STREAK DYNAMICS FROM A SRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...EXPECT SCT LAYERS BLO FL100 WITH PASSING SHRA AND VCSH
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND EN ROUTE BTW LEEWARD ISLANDS...USVI
TERMINALS AND EASTERN PR. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
15-25 KT.

MARINE...WINDS 20-25 KT TODAY THEN DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT
AND WED WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. SEAS 6-8
FT TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO 5-7 FT TONIGHT AND WED THEN SUBSIDE
RAPIDLY TO 3-5 FT WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN
AGAIN LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS GRADUALLY
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  81  85  79 /  30  20  30  30
STT  82  81  82  80 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

71/72






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250837
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
437 AM AST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL
RETROGRESS TOWARD 60W BY THANKSGIVING DAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
THEN BUILD FRI THEN FLATTEN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY THEN
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND WED THEN WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY WED NIGHT
THROUGH FRI. SCT LIGHT SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED TODAY IN A MOIST
EAST FLOW. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS TONIGHT ON BACKSIDE
OF RETROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL LOW LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING FROM THE NORTH WED AND MID
LEVEL COOLING WILL HELP TRIGGER SCT SHOWERS WED-WED NIGHT MAINLY
OVR THE ERN HALF OF PR. DRYING EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND
THROUGH FRI WITH MOISTURE RECOVERY EXPECTED SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT
AS TRADES STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND RRQ
JET STREAK DYNAMICS FROM A SRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...EXPECT SCT LAYERS BLO FL100 WITH PASSING SHRA AND VCSH
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND EN ROUTE BTW LEEWARD ISLANDS...USVI
TERMINALS AND EASTERN PR. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
15-25 KT.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS 20-25 KT TODAY THEN DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT
AND WED WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. SEAS 6-8
FT TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO 5-7 FT TONIGHT AND WED THEN SUBSIDE
RAPIDLY TO 3-5 FT WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN
AGAIN LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS GRADUALLY
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  81  85  79 /  30  20  30  30
STT  82  81  82  80 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

13/64






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250837
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
437 AM AST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL
RETROGRESS TOWARD 60W BY THANKSGIVING DAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
THEN BUILD FRI THEN FLATTEN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY THEN
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND WED THEN WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY WED NIGHT
THROUGH FRI. SCT LIGHT SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED TODAY IN A MOIST
EAST FLOW. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS TONIGHT ON BACKSIDE
OF RETROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL LOW LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING FROM THE NORTH WED AND MID
LEVEL COOLING WILL HELP TRIGGER SCT SHOWERS WED-WED NIGHT MAINLY
OVR THE ERN HALF OF PR. DRYING EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND
THROUGH FRI WITH MOISTURE RECOVERY EXPECTED SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT
AS TRADES STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND RRQ
JET STREAK DYNAMICS FROM A SRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...EXPECT SCT LAYERS BLO FL100 WITH PASSING SHRA AND VCSH
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND EN ROUTE BTW LEEWARD ISLANDS...USVI
TERMINALS AND EASTERN PR. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
15-25 KT.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS 20-25 KT TODAY THEN DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT
AND WED WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. SEAS 6-8
FT TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO 5-7 FT TONIGHT AND WED THEN SUBSIDE
RAPIDLY TO 3-5 FT WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN
AGAIN LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS GRADUALLY
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  81  85  79 /  30  20  30  30
STT  82  81  82  80 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

13/64







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