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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 270252
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1052 PM AST TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL...FROM COAMO TO SAN GERMAN...AND OVER SOME SECTIONS OF
MAYAGUEZ. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WERE DETECTED
OBSERVED UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. ONCE AGAIN...BRIEF SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTH AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS. DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
ARRIVES ON FRIDAY...WHEN THE MODEL GUIDANCES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
PWAT AROUND 2.10 IN...WHICH IS AROUND THE 75TH CLIMATOLOGICAL
PERCENTILE FOR THE MONTH OF MAY. THEREFORE...THE CHANCES OF RAIN
ACROSS MANY AREAS IN PUERTO RICO ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT OCNL BKN CLD LYRS BTW FL020-FL080 ACROSS THE FLYING
AREA. ISOLD -SHRA/SHRA OVR COASTAL WATERS N-S-E OF PR AND EN ROUTE
BTW ADJACENT ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR PSBL AND MTN TOP OBSCR W/PASSING
LOW CLDS AND SHRA... MAINLY OVR AND VCTY E INTERIOR SECTION OF PR
TIL 27/05Z. ELSEWHERE VFR TO PREVAIL DURG PRD. WINDS BLO FL100 FM NE
10 TO 15 KT BMCG FM N AND INCR W/HT ABV. MAX WINDS OVR TJSJ NEXT 24
HRS NR FL450 FM W BTW 45-55 KT. NO OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS
ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT
LEAST UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH SEAS BELOW 5 FEET AND
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS...AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM AST TUE MAY 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL
CONTINUE NORTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TROUGH ALOFT
WILL INDUCE A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...PROMOTING A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS TROUGH ALOFT
WEAKENS NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PATTERN WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN.

DISCUSSION...SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED DURING MUCH
OF THE DAY ACROSS ALL LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER BY EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WERE FORMING ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AT
LEAST UNTIL SUNSET...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
TONIGHT...PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI AND THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

AT LEAST UNTIL THURSDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN PR WITH STREAMERS FORMING OFF
THE ISLANDS AND BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS
DURING THE NIGHTTIME. AS DEEP SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ESTABLISHES DUE
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH...A WETTER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE END OF WEEK...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
ABOVE THAN NORMAL PWAT VALUES FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THRU EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND FAVORABLE UPPER AIR DYNAMICS. THEREFORE...SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS LIKELY
DURING THIS PERIOD ACROSS MAINLAND PR.

AVIATION...SHRA DVLPG INTO TSRA TIL 26/21Z OVER AND JUST S OF
CORDILLERA CENTRAL. AREAS OF MVFR AND MTN OBSCURATIONS...MAINLY TJMZ
TIL 27/03Z. ELSW VFR TO PREVAIL EXC BRIEF MVFR IN SHRA TKPK AND
TNCM. SHRA AND TSRA TO RETURN TO PR SIMILAR PLACES BY 27/16Z. WINDS
BLO FL090 N-NE 10 TO 15 KT BMCG AFT 27/12Z BLO FL050 E UP TO 12 KT.
MAX WINDS OVR TJSJ NEXT 24 HRS AT FL460 W 45-55 KT.

MARINE...SEAS BELOW 5 FEET AND EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  86  76  88 /  20  20  30  30
STT  76  87  77  87 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

09/27



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 270252
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1052 PM AST TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL...FROM COAMO TO SAN GERMAN...AND OVER SOME SECTIONS OF
MAYAGUEZ. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WERE DETECTED
OBSERVED UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. ONCE AGAIN...BRIEF SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTH AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS. DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
ARRIVES ON FRIDAY...WHEN THE MODEL GUIDANCES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
PWAT AROUND 2.10 IN...WHICH IS AROUND THE 75TH CLIMATOLOGICAL
PERCENTILE FOR THE MONTH OF MAY. THEREFORE...THE CHANCES OF RAIN
ACROSS MANY AREAS IN PUERTO RICO ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT OCNL BKN CLD LYRS BTW FL020-FL080 ACROSS THE FLYING
AREA. ISOLD -SHRA/SHRA OVR COASTAL WATERS N-S-E OF PR AND EN ROUTE
BTW ADJACENT ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR PSBL AND MTN TOP OBSCR W/PASSING
LOW CLDS AND SHRA... MAINLY OVR AND VCTY E INTERIOR SECTION OF PR
TIL 27/05Z. ELSEWHERE VFR TO PREVAIL DURG PRD. WINDS BLO FL100 FM NE
10 TO 15 KT BMCG FM N AND INCR W/HT ABV. MAX WINDS OVR TJSJ NEXT 24
HRS NR FL450 FM W BTW 45-55 KT. NO OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS
ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT
LEAST UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH SEAS BELOW 5 FEET AND
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS...AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM AST TUE MAY 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL
CONTINUE NORTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TROUGH ALOFT
WILL INDUCE A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...PROMOTING A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS TROUGH ALOFT
WEAKENS NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PATTERN WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN.

DISCUSSION...SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED DURING MUCH
OF THE DAY ACROSS ALL LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER BY EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WERE FORMING ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AT
LEAST UNTIL SUNSET...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
TONIGHT...PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI AND THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

AT LEAST UNTIL THURSDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN PR WITH STREAMERS FORMING OFF
THE ISLANDS AND BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS
DURING THE NIGHTTIME. AS DEEP SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ESTABLISHES DUE
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH...A WETTER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE END OF WEEK...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
ABOVE THAN NORMAL PWAT VALUES FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THRU EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND FAVORABLE UPPER AIR DYNAMICS. THEREFORE...SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS LIKELY
DURING THIS PERIOD ACROSS MAINLAND PR.

AVIATION...SHRA DVLPG INTO TSRA TIL 26/21Z OVER AND JUST S OF
CORDILLERA CENTRAL. AREAS OF MVFR AND MTN OBSCURATIONS...MAINLY TJMZ
TIL 27/03Z. ELSW VFR TO PREVAIL EXC BRIEF MVFR IN SHRA TKPK AND
TNCM. SHRA AND TSRA TO RETURN TO PR SIMILAR PLACES BY 27/16Z. WINDS
BLO FL090 N-NE 10 TO 15 KT BMCG AFT 27/12Z BLO FL050 E UP TO 12 KT.
MAX WINDS OVR TJSJ NEXT 24 HRS AT FL460 W 45-55 KT.

MARINE...SEAS BELOW 5 FEET AND EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  86  76  88 /  20  20  30  30
STT  76  87  77  87 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

09/27




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 270252
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1052 PM AST TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL...FROM COAMO TO SAN GERMAN...AND OVER SOME SECTIONS OF
MAYAGUEZ. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WERE DETECTED
OBSERVED UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. ONCE AGAIN...BRIEF SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTH AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS. DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
ARRIVES ON FRIDAY...WHEN THE MODEL GUIDANCES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
PWAT AROUND 2.10 IN...WHICH IS AROUND THE 75TH CLIMATOLOGICAL
PERCENTILE FOR THE MONTH OF MAY. THEREFORE...THE CHANCES OF RAIN
ACROSS MANY AREAS IN PUERTO RICO ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT OCNL BKN CLD LYRS BTW FL020-FL080 ACROSS THE FLYING
AREA. ISOLD -SHRA/SHRA OVR COASTAL WATERS N-S-E OF PR AND EN ROUTE
BTW ADJACENT ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR PSBL AND MTN TOP OBSCR W/PASSING
LOW CLDS AND SHRA... MAINLY OVR AND VCTY E INTERIOR SECTION OF PR
TIL 27/05Z. ELSEWHERE VFR TO PREVAIL DURG PRD. WINDS BLO FL100 FM NE
10 TO 15 KT BMCG FM N AND INCR W/HT ABV. MAX WINDS OVR TJSJ NEXT 24
HRS NR FL450 FM W BTW 45-55 KT. NO OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS
ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT
LEAST UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH SEAS BELOW 5 FEET AND
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS...AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM AST TUE MAY 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL
CONTINUE NORTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TROUGH ALOFT
WILL INDUCE A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...PROMOTING A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS TROUGH ALOFT
WEAKENS NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PATTERN WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN.

DISCUSSION...SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED DURING MUCH
OF THE DAY ACROSS ALL LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER BY EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WERE FORMING ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AT
LEAST UNTIL SUNSET...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
TONIGHT...PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI AND THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

AT LEAST UNTIL THURSDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN PR WITH STREAMERS FORMING OFF
THE ISLANDS AND BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS
DURING THE NIGHTTIME. AS DEEP SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ESTABLISHES DUE
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH...A WETTER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE END OF WEEK...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
ABOVE THAN NORMAL PWAT VALUES FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THRU EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND FAVORABLE UPPER AIR DYNAMICS. THEREFORE...SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS LIKELY
DURING THIS PERIOD ACROSS MAINLAND PR.

AVIATION...SHRA DVLPG INTO TSRA TIL 26/21Z OVER AND JUST S OF
CORDILLERA CENTRAL. AREAS OF MVFR AND MTN OBSCURATIONS...MAINLY TJMZ
TIL 27/03Z. ELSW VFR TO PREVAIL EXC BRIEF MVFR IN SHRA TKPK AND
TNCM. SHRA AND TSRA TO RETURN TO PR SIMILAR PLACES BY 27/16Z. WINDS
BLO FL090 N-NE 10 TO 15 KT BMCG AFT 27/12Z BLO FL050 E UP TO 12 KT.
MAX WINDS OVR TJSJ NEXT 24 HRS AT FL460 W 45-55 KT.

MARINE...SEAS BELOW 5 FEET AND EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  86  76  88 /  20  20  30  30
STT  76  87  77  87 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

09/27



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 270252 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1052 PM AST TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL...FROM COAMO TO SAN GERMAN...AND OVER SOME SECTIONS OF
MAYAGUEZ. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WERE OBSERVED
UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. ONCE AGAIN...BRIEF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE NORTH AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AND
THE SURROUNDING WATERS. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY...WHEN THE MODEL GUIDANCES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST PWAT AROUND
2.10 IN...WHICH IS AROUND THE 75TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE FOR
THE MONTH OF MAY. THEREFORE...THE CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS MANY
AREAS IN PUERTO RICO ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND. MINOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT OCNL BKN CLD LYRS BTW FL020-FL080 ACROSS THE FLYING
AREA. ISOLD -SHRA/SHRA OVR COASTAL WATERS N-S-E OF PR AND EN ROUTE
BTW ADJACENT ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR PSBL AND MTN TOP OBSCR W/PASSING
LOW CLDS AND SHRA... MAINLY OVR AND VCTY E INTERIOR SECTION OF PR
TIL 27/05Z. ELSEWHERE VFR TO PREVAIL DURG PRD. WINDS BLO FL100 FM NE
10 TO 15 KT BMCG FM N AND INCR W/HT ABV. MAX WINDS OVR TJSJ NEXT 24
HRS NR FL450 FM W BTW 45-55 KT. NO OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS
ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT
LEAST UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH SEAS BELOW 5 FEET AND
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS...AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM AST TUE MAY 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL
CONTINUE NORTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TROUGH ALOFT
WILL INDUCE A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...PROMOTING A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS TROUGH ALOFT
WEAKENS NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PATTERN WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN.

DISCUSSION...SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED DURING MUCH
OF THE DAY ACROSS ALL LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER BY EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WERE FORMING ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AT
LEAST UNTIL SUNSET...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
TONIGHT...PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI AND THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

AT LEAST UNTIL THURSDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN PR WITH STREAMERS FORMING OFF
THE ISLANDS AND BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS
DURING THE NIGHTTIME. AS DEEP SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ESTABLISHES DUE
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH...A WETTER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE END OF WEEK...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
ABOVE THAN NORMAL PWAT VALUES FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THRU EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND FAVORABLE UPPER AIR DYNAMICS. THEREFORE...SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS LIKELY
DURING THIS PERIOD ACROSS MAINLAND PR.

AVIATION...SHRA DVLPG INTO TSRA TIL 26/21Z OVER AND JUST S OF
CORDILLERA CENTRAL. AREAS OF MVFR AND MTN OBSCURATIONS...MAINLY TJMZ
TIL 27/03Z. ELSW VFR TO PREVAIL EXC BRIEF MVFR IN SHRA TKPK AND
TNCM. SHRA AND TSRA TO RETURN TO PR SIMILAR PLACES BY 27/16Z. WINDS
BLO FL090 N-NE 10 TO 15 KT BMCG AFT 27/12Z BLO FL050 E UP TO 12 KT.
MAX WINDS OVR TJSJ NEXT 24 HRS AT FL460 W 45-55 KT.

MARINE...SEAS BELOW 5 FEET AND EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  86  76  88 /  20  20  30  30
STT  76  87  77  87 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

09/27




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 270252 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1052 PM AST TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL...FROM COAMO TO SAN GERMAN...AND OVER SOME SECTIONS OF
MAYAGUEZ. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WERE OBSERVED
UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. ONCE AGAIN...BRIEF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE NORTH AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AND
THE SURROUNDING WATERS. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY...WHEN THE MODEL GUIDANCES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST PWAT AROUND
2.10 IN...WHICH IS AROUND THE 75TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE FOR
THE MONTH OF MAY. THEREFORE...THE CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS MANY
AREAS IN PUERTO RICO ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND. MINOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT OCNL BKN CLD LYRS BTW FL020-FL080 ACROSS THE FLYING
AREA. ISOLD -SHRA/SHRA OVR COASTAL WATERS N-S-E OF PR AND EN ROUTE
BTW ADJACENT ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR PSBL AND MTN TOP OBSCR W/PASSING
LOW CLDS AND SHRA... MAINLY OVR AND VCTY E INTERIOR SECTION OF PR
TIL 27/05Z. ELSEWHERE VFR TO PREVAIL DURG PRD. WINDS BLO FL100 FM NE
10 TO 15 KT BMCG FM N AND INCR W/HT ABV. MAX WINDS OVR TJSJ NEXT 24
HRS NR FL450 FM W BTW 45-55 KT. NO OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS
ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT
LEAST UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH SEAS BELOW 5 FEET AND
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS...AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM AST TUE MAY 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL
CONTINUE NORTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TROUGH ALOFT
WILL INDUCE A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...PROMOTING A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS TROUGH ALOFT
WEAKENS NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PATTERN WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN.

DISCUSSION...SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED DURING MUCH
OF THE DAY ACROSS ALL LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER BY EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WERE FORMING ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AT
LEAST UNTIL SUNSET...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
TONIGHT...PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI AND THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

AT LEAST UNTIL THURSDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN PR WITH STREAMERS FORMING OFF
THE ISLANDS AND BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS
DURING THE NIGHTTIME. AS DEEP SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ESTABLISHES DUE
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH...A WETTER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE END OF WEEK...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
ABOVE THAN NORMAL PWAT VALUES FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THRU EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND FAVORABLE UPPER AIR DYNAMICS. THEREFORE...SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS LIKELY
DURING THIS PERIOD ACROSS MAINLAND PR.

AVIATION...SHRA DVLPG INTO TSRA TIL 26/21Z OVER AND JUST S OF
CORDILLERA CENTRAL. AREAS OF MVFR AND MTN OBSCURATIONS...MAINLY TJMZ
TIL 27/03Z. ELSW VFR TO PREVAIL EXC BRIEF MVFR IN SHRA TKPK AND
TNCM. SHRA AND TSRA TO RETURN TO PR SIMILAR PLACES BY 27/16Z. WINDS
BLO FL090 N-NE 10 TO 15 KT BMCG AFT 27/12Z BLO FL050 E UP TO 12 KT.
MAX WINDS OVR TJSJ NEXT 24 HRS AT FL460 W 45-55 KT.

MARINE...SEAS BELOW 5 FEET AND EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  86  76  88 /  20  20  30  30
STT  76  87  77  87 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

09/27




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 270252 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1052 PM AST TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL...FROM COAMO TO SAN GERMAN...AND OVER SOME SECTIONS OF
MAYAGUEZ. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WERE OBSERVED
UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. ONCE AGAIN...BRIEF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE NORTH AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AND
THE SURROUNDING WATERS. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY...WHEN THE MODEL GUIDANCES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST PWAT AROUND
2.10 IN...WHICH IS AROUND THE 75TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE FOR
THE MONTH OF MAY. THEREFORE...THE CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS MANY
AREAS IN PUERTO RICO ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND. MINOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT OCNL BKN CLD LYRS BTW FL020-FL080 ACROSS THE FLYING
AREA. ISOLD -SHRA/SHRA OVR COASTAL WATERS N-S-E OF PR AND EN ROUTE
BTW ADJACENT ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR PSBL AND MTN TOP OBSCR W/PASSING
LOW CLDS AND SHRA... MAINLY OVR AND VCTY E INTERIOR SECTION OF PR
TIL 27/05Z. ELSEWHERE VFR TO PREVAIL DURG PRD. WINDS BLO FL100 FM NE
10 TO 15 KT BMCG FM N AND INCR W/HT ABV. MAX WINDS OVR TJSJ NEXT 24
HRS NR FL450 FM W BTW 45-55 KT. NO OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS
ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT
LEAST UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH SEAS BELOW 5 FEET AND
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS...AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM AST TUE MAY 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL
CONTINUE NORTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TROUGH ALOFT
WILL INDUCE A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...PROMOTING A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS TROUGH ALOFT
WEAKENS NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PATTERN WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN.

DISCUSSION...SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED DURING MUCH
OF THE DAY ACROSS ALL LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER BY EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WERE FORMING ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AT
LEAST UNTIL SUNSET...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
TONIGHT...PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI AND THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

AT LEAST UNTIL THURSDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN PR WITH STREAMERS FORMING OFF
THE ISLANDS AND BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS
DURING THE NIGHTTIME. AS DEEP SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ESTABLISHES DUE
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH...A WETTER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE END OF WEEK...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
ABOVE THAN NORMAL PWAT VALUES FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THRU EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND FAVORABLE UPPER AIR DYNAMICS. THEREFORE...SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS LIKELY
DURING THIS PERIOD ACROSS MAINLAND PR.

AVIATION...SHRA DVLPG INTO TSRA TIL 26/21Z OVER AND JUST S OF
CORDILLERA CENTRAL. AREAS OF MVFR AND MTN OBSCURATIONS...MAINLY TJMZ
TIL 27/03Z. ELSW VFR TO PREVAIL EXC BRIEF MVFR IN SHRA TKPK AND
TNCM. SHRA AND TSRA TO RETURN TO PR SIMILAR PLACES BY 27/16Z. WINDS
BLO FL090 N-NE 10 TO 15 KT BMCG AFT 27/12Z BLO FL050 E UP TO 12 KT.
MAX WINDS OVR TJSJ NEXT 24 HRS AT FL460 W 45-55 KT.

MARINE...SEAS BELOW 5 FEET AND EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  86  76  88 /  20  20  30  30
STT  76  87  77  87 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

09/27




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 270252 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1052 PM AST TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL...FROM COAMO TO SAN GERMAN...AND OVER SOME SECTIONS OF
MAYAGUEZ. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WERE OBSERVED
UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. ONCE AGAIN...BRIEF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE NORTH AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AND
THE SURROUNDING WATERS. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY...WHEN THE MODEL GUIDANCES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST PWAT AROUND
2.10 IN...WHICH IS AROUND THE 75TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE FOR
THE MONTH OF MAY. THEREFORE...THE CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS MANY
AREAS IN PUERTO RICO ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND. MINOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT OCNL BKN CLD LYRS BTW FL020-FL080 ACROSS THE FLYING
AREA. ISOLD -SHRA/SHRA OVR COASTAL WATERS N-S-E OF PR AND EN ROUTE
BTW ADJACENT ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR PSBL AND MTN TOP OBSCR W/PASSING
LOW CLDS AND SHRA... MAINLY OVR AND VCTY E INTERIOR SECTION OF PR
TIL 27/05Z. ELSEWHERE VFR TO PREVAIL DURG PRD. WINDS BLO FL100 FM NE
10 TO 15 KT BMCG FM N AND INCR W/HT ABV. MAX WINDS OVR TJSJ NEXT 24
HRS NR FL450 FM W BTW 45-55 KT. NO OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS
ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT
LEAST UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH SEAS BELOW 5 FEET AND
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS...AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM AST TUE MAY 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL
CONTINUE NORTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TROUGH ALOFT
WILL INDUCE A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...PROMOTING A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS TROUGH ALOFT
WEAKENS NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PATTERN WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN.

DISCUSSION...SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED DURING MUCH
OF THE DAY ACROSS ALL LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER BY EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WERE FORMING ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AT
LEAST UNTIL SUNSET...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
TONIGHT...PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI AND THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

AT LEAST UNTIL THURSDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN PR WITH STREAMERS FORMING OFF
THE ISLANDS AND BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS
DURING THE NIGHTTIME. AS DEEP SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ESTABLISHES DUE
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH...A WETTER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE END OF WEEK...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
ABOVE THAN NORMAL PWAT VALUES FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THRU EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND FAVORABLE UPPER AIR DYNAMICS. THEREFORE...SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS LIKELY
DURING THIS PERIOD ACROSS MAINLAND PR.

AVIATION...SHRA DVLPG INTO TSRA TIL 26/21Z OVER AND JUST S OF
CORDILLERA CENTRAL. AREAS OF MVFR AND MTN OBSCURATIONS...MAINLY TJMZ
TIL 27/03Z. ELSW VFR TO PREVAIL EXC BRIEF MVFR IN SHRA TKPK AND
TNCM. SHRA AND TSRA TO RETURN TO PR SIMILAR PLACES BY 27/16Z. WINDS
BLO FL090 N-NE 10 TO 15 KT BMCG AFT 27/12Z BLO FL050 E UP TO 12 KT.
MAX WINDS OVR TJSJ NEXT 24 HRS AT FL460 W 45-55 KT.

MARINE...SEAS BELOW 5 FEET AND EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  86  76  88 /  20  20  30  30
STT  76  87  77  87 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

09/27




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 261825
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
225 PM AST TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL
CONTINUE NORTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TROUGH ALOFT
WILL INDUCE A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...PROMOTING A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS TROUGH ALOFT
WEAKENS NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PATTERN WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED DURING MUCH
OF THE DAY ACROSS ALL LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER BY EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WERE FORMING ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AT
LEAST UNTIL SUNSET...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
TONIGHT...PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI AND THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

AT LEAST UNTIL THURSDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN PR WITH STREAMERS FORMING OFF
THE ISLANDS AND BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS
DURING THE NIGHTTIME. AS DEEP SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ESTABLISHES DUE
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH...A WETTER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE END OF WEEK...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
ABOVE THAN NORMAL PWAT VALUES FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THRU EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND FAVORABLE UPPER AIR DYNAMICS. THEREFORE...SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS LIKELY
DURING THIS PERIOD ACROSS MAINLAND PR.


&&

.AVIATION...SHRA DVLPG INTO TSRA TIL 26/21Z OVER AND JUST S OF
CORDILLERA CENTRAL. AREAS OF MVFR AND MTN OBSCURATIONS...MAINLY TJMZ
TIL 27/03Z. ELSW VFR TO PREVAIL EXC BRIEF MVFR IN SHRA TKPK AND
TNCM. SHRA AND TSRA TO RETURN TO PR SIMILAR PLACES BY 27/16Z. WINDS
BLO FL090 N-NE 10 TO 15 KT BMCG AFT 27/12Z BLO FL050 E UP TO 12 KT.
MAX WINDS OVR TJSJ NEXT 24 HRS AT FL460 W 45-55 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS BELOW 5 FEET AND EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  78  87 /  20  20  30  30
STT  77  88  77  88 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/13



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 261825
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
225 PM AST TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL
CONTINUE NORTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TROUGH ALOFT
WILL INDUCE A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...PROMOTING A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS TROUGH ALOFT
WEAKENS NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PATTERN WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED DURING MUCH
OF THE DAY ACROSS ALL LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER BY EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WERE FORMING ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AT
LEAST UNTIL SUNSET...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
TONIGHT...PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI AND THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

AT LEAST UNTIL THURSDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN PR WITH STREAMERS FORMING OFF
THE ISLANDS AND BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS
DURING THE NIGHTTIME. AS DEEP SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ESTABLISHES DUE
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH...A WETTER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE END OF WEEK...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
ABOVE THAN NORMAL PWAT VALUES FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THRU EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND FAVORABLE UPPER AIR DYNAMICS. THEREFORE...SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS LIKELY
DURING THIS PERIOD ACROSS MAINLAND PR.


&&

.AVIATION...SHRA DVLPG INTO TSRA TIL 26/21Z OVER AND JUST S OF
CORDILLERA CENTRAL. AREAS OF MVFR AND MTN OBSCURATIONS...MAINLY TJMZ
TIL 27/03Z. ELSW VFR TO PREVAIL EXC BRIEF MVFR IN SHRA TKPK AND
TNCM. SHRA AND TSRA TO RETURN TO PR SIMILAR PLACES BY 27/16Z. WINDS
BLO FL090 N-NE 10 TO 15 KT BMCG AFT 27/12Z BLO FL050 E UP TO 12 KT.
MAX WINDS OVR TJSJ NEXT 24 HRS AT FL460 W 45-55 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS BELOW 5 FEET AND EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  78  87 /  20  20  30  30
STT  77  88  77  88 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/13




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 261710 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
110 PM AST TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK. SOUNDING REVEALED SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE THAN YESTERDAY BUT MOST NOTABLE AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
HAS BEEN THE MORE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
PATTERN OF SHOWER FORMATION TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL INSTEAD OF THE MID PORTION OF THE ISLAND IN THE
WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD THEY LINGER ANY TIME AT ALL THEY WILL
CAUSE SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING PROBLEMS. SINCE THIS
WIND SHIFT WAS ANTICIPATED NO CHANGE WILL BE NECESSARY TO THE
CURRENT GRIDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ARRIVAL OF BETTER MOISTURE LATER THIS WEEK STILL ON
TRACK. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CHANGE IN WEATHER AT THAT TIME WITH
INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...HEAVIER AMOUNTS AND
BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...ONLY CHANGES TO DISCUSSION BELOW...EXPECT SOME
SOUTHWESTERLY MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN
CENTRAL PUERTO RICO...SOME WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM AST TUE MAY 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL
CONTINUE NORTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TROUGH ALOFT
WILL INDUCE A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...PROMOTING A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS TROUGH ALOFT
WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PATTERN WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS
OBSERVED ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS. THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS...WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS.

THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL INDUCE A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL PROMOTE A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN UNDER 850MB
THRU THURSDAY.

EXPECT TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS AS WELL AS
LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND
WEST OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY THRU THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A SHARP INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED AT ALL LEVELS UNDER A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS WITH
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND.
STAY TUNED.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 26/17Z WITH SCT SHRA
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING. SOME OF THEM WILL BRIEFLY
AFFECT TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TKPK/TNCM. FOR THE AFTERNOON...BRIEF MVFR
CONDS POSSIBLE AT TJMZ/TJPS WITH MTN TOPS OBSCD FROM 26/17Z THROUGH
26/23Z DUE TO POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR. SFC WINDS UNTIL 26/12Z FROM THE E-NE AT 5 TO 10
KTS...AFT 26/12Z...AT 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...AND
GUSTING UP 25KT TIL 26/23Z.

MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS WITH SEAS
BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  78  88  78 /  70  20  20  30
STT  88  77  88  77 /  70  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/13




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 260943
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 AM AST TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL
CONTINUE NORTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TROUGH ALOFT
WILL INDUCE A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...PROMOTING A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS TROUGH ALOFT
WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PATTERN WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS
OBSERVED ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS. THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS...WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS.

THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL INDUCE A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL PROMOTE A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN UNDER 850MB
THRU THURSDAY.

EXPECT TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS AS WELL AS
LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND
WEST OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY THRU THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A SHARP INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED AT ALL LEVELS UNDER A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS WITH
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND.
STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 26/17Z WITH SCT SHRA
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING. SOME OF THEM WILL BRIEFLY
AFFECT TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TKPK/TNCM. FOR THE AFTERNOON...BRIEF MVFR
CONDS POSSIBLE AT TJMZ/TJPS WITH MTN TOPS OBSCD FROM 26/17Z THROUGH
26/23Z DUE TO POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR. SFC WINDS UNTIL 26/12Z FROM THE E-NE AT 5 TO 10
KTS...AFT 26/12Z...AT 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...AND
GUSTING UP 25KT TIL 26/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS WITH SEAS
BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  78  88  78 /  70  20  20  30
STT  88  77  88  77 /  70  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 260943
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 AM AST TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL
CONTINUE NORTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TROUGH ALOFT
WILL INDUCE A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...PROMOTING A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS TROUGH ALOFT
WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PATTERN WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS
OBSERVED ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS. THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS...WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS.

THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL INDUCE A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL PROMOTE A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN UNDER 850MB
THRU THURSDAY.

EXPECT TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS AS WELL AS
LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND
WEST OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY THRU THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A SHARP INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED AT ALL LEVELS UNDER A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS WITH
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND.
STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 26/17Z WITH SCT SHRA
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING. SOME OF THEM WILL BRIEFLY
AFFECT TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TKPK/TNCM. FOR THE AFTERNOON...BRIEF MVFR
CONDS POSSIBLE AT TJMZ/TJPS WITH MTN TOPS OBSCD FROM 26/17Z THROUGH
26/23Z DUE TO POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR. SFC WINDS UNTIL 26/12Z FROM THE E-NE AT 5 TO 10
KTS...AFT 26/12Z...AT 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...AND
GUSTING UP 25KT TIL 26/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS WITH SEAS
BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  78  88  78 /  70  20  20  30
STT  88  77  88  77 /  70  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 260943
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 AM AST TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL
CONTINUE NORTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TROUGH ALOFT
WILL INDUCE A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...PROMOTING A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS TROUGH ALOFT
WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PATTERN WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS
OBSERVED ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS. THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS...WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS.

THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL INDUCE A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL PROMOTE A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN UNDER 850MB
THRU THURSDAY.

EXPECT TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS AS WELL AS
LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND
WEST OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY THRU THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A SHARP INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED AT ALL LEVELS UNDER A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS WITH
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND.
STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 26/17Z WITH SCT SHRA
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING. SOME OF THEM WILL BRIEFLY
AFFECT TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TKPK/TNCM. FOR THE AFTERNOON...BRIEF MVFR
CONDS POSSIBLE AT TJMZ/TJPS WITH MTN TOPS OBSCD FROM 26/17Z THROUGH
26/23Z DUE TO POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR. SFC WINDS UNTIL 26/12Z FROM THE E-NE AT 5 TO 10
KTS...AFT 26/12Z...AT 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...AND
GUSTING UP 25KT TIL 26/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS WITH SEAS
BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  78  88  78 /  70  20  20  30
STT  88  77  88  77 /  70  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 260943
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 AM AST TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL
CONTINUE NORTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TROUGH ALOFT
WILL INDUCE A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...PROMOTING A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS TROUGH ALOFT
WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PATTERN WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS
OBSERVED ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS. THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS...WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS.

THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL INDUCE A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL PROMOTE A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN UNDER 850MB
THRU THURSDAY.

EXPECT TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS AS WELL AS
LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND
WEST OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY THRU THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A SHARP INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED AT ALL LEVELS UNDER A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS WITH
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND.
STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 26/17Z WITH SCT SHRA
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING. SOME OF THEM WILL BRIEFLY
AFFECT TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TKPK/TNCM. FOR THE AFTERNOON...BRIEF MVFR
CONDS POSSIBLE AT TJMZ/TJPS WITH MTN TOPS OBSCD FROM 26/17Z THROUGH
26/23Z DUE TO POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR. SFC WINDS UNTIL 26/12Z FROM THE E-NE AT 5 TO 10
KTS...AFT 26/12Z...AT 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...AND
GUSTING UP 25KT TIL 26/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS WITH SEAS
BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  78  88  78 /  70  20  20  30
STT  88  77  88  77 /  70  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 260247
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1047 PM AST MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE FINISHED OVER WESTERN PR WHILE
QUITE A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO SURROUNDING WATER. RAISE THE
COVERAGE FROM USVI AND SAN JUAN NORTHWARD AND BELIEVE SCATTERED IS
SUFFICIENT ELSEWHERE FOR TONIGHT/EARLY TUE. SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF
THOUGH AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. LITTLE CHANGE OTHERWISE TO GRIDS/FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR COND EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SCT SHRA ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...
SOME OF THEM WILL AFFECT TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TKPK/TNCM. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BRIEF MVFR COND POSSIBLE AT TJMZ/TJPS WITH MTN TOPS
OBSCD FROM 26/17Z THROUGH 26/23Z DUE TO POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. SFC WINDS FROM THE E-NE AT 5 TO
10 AND LAND BREEZES DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. AFT 26/12Z...AT 10 TO 15
KT...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...AND GUSTING UP 25KT TIL 26/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...DEVELOPING TROUGH ABOUT 28N/58W WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWEST UNTIL DUE NORTH ON THU. IT WILL KEEP THE TRADES
RELATIVELY WEAK AND SEAS DOWN UNTIL BOTH BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN ABOUT
SAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM AST MON MAY 25 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC A CUT-OFF LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TOMORROW
MEANDERING AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY...AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LOW. AS PATTERN EVOLVES...WINDS WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY PULLING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED DURING MUCH
OF THE DAY ACROSS ALL LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WAS OBSERVED EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET. URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
OVERNIGHT...AS WINDS SHIFT MORE NORTHEASTERLY...PASSING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI AND THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

AT LEAST UNTIL THURSDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR WITH STREAMERS FORMING OFF THE
ISLANDS AND BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS DURING
THE NIGHTTIME. AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES DUE TO THE
CUT-OFF LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH...A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
DURING THE END OF WEEK...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ABOVE THAN
NORMAL PWAT VALUES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THRU NEXT
MONDAY. IN GENERAL...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND OVER THE ISLANDS.

AVIATION...VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AND FROM SW
PR TO WITHIN 15 MILES OF TJSJ WITH MTN TOPS OBSCD FROM 25/17Z
THROUGH 25/22Z DUE TO POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. SFC WINDS FROM THE E-NE AT 10 TO 15
KT...GUSTING UP 24KT TIL 25/23Z. LAND BREEZES DEVELOPING AFT
26/00Z.

MARINE...NEARSHORE BUOYS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET AND
EAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BELOW 5
FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  87  78  88 /  70  70  20  20
STT  77  88  77  88 /  70  70  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

27/54



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 260247
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1047 PM AST MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE FINISHED OVER WESTERN PR WHILE
QUITE A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO SURROUNDING WATER. RAISE THE
COVERAGE FROM USVI AND SAN JUAN NORTHWARD AND BELIEVE SCATTERED IS
SUFFICIENT ELSEWHERE FOR TONIGHT/EARLY TUE. SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF
THOUGH AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. LITTLE CHANGE OTHERWISE TO GRIDS/FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR COND EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SCT SHRA ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...
SOME OF THEM WILL AFFECT TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TKPK/TNCM. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BRIEF MVFR COND POSSIBLE AT TJMZ/TJPS WITH MTN TOPS
OBSCD FROM 26/17Z THROUGH 26/23Z DUE TO POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. SFC WINDS FROM THE E-NE AT 5 TO
10 AND LAND BREEZES DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. AFT 26/12Z...AT 10 TO 15
KT...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...AND GUSTING UP 25KT TIL 26/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...DEVELOPING TROUGH ABOUT 28N/58W WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWEST UNTIL DUE NORTH ON THU. IT WILL KEEP THE TRADES
RELATIVELY WEAK AND SEAS DOWN UNTIL BOTH BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN ABOUT
SAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM AST MON MAY 25 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC A CUT-OFF LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TOMORROW
MEANDERING AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY...AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LOW. AS PATTERN EVOLVES...WINDS WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY PULLING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED DURING MUCH
OF THE DAY ACROSS ALL LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WAS OBSERVED EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET. URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
OVERNIGHT...AS WINDS SHIFT MORE NORTHEASTERLY...PASSING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI AND THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

AT LEAST UNTIL THURSDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR WITH STREAMERS FORMING OFF THE
ISLANDS AND BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS DURING
THE NIGHTTIME. AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES DUE TO THE
CUT-OFF LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH...A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
DURING THE END OF WEEK...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ABOVE THAN
NORMAL PWAT VALUES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THRU NEXT
MONDAY. IN GENERAL...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND OVER THE ISLANDS.

AVIATION...VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AND FROM SW
PR TO WITHIN 15 MILES OF TJSJ WITH MTN TOPS OBSCD FROM 25/17Z
THROUGH 25/22Z DUE TO POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. SFC WINDS FROM THE E-NE AT 10 TO 15
KT...GUSTING UP 24KT TIL 25/23Z. LAND BREEZES DEVELOPING AFT
26/00Z.

MARINE...NEARSHORE BUOYS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET AND
EAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BELOW 5
FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  87  78  88 /  70  70  20  20
STT  77  88  77  88 /  70  70  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

27/54



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 260247
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1047 PM AST MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE FINISHED OVER WESTERN PR WHILE
QUITE A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO SURROUNDING WATER. RAISE THE
COVERAGE FROM USVI AND SAN JUAN NORTHWARD AND BELIEVE SCATTERED IS
SUFFICIENT ELSEWHERE FOR TONIGHT/EARLY TUE. SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF
THOUGH AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. LITTLE CHANGE OTHERWISE TO GRIDS/FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR COND EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SCT SHRA ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...
SOME OF THEM WILL AFFECT TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TKPK/TNCM. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BRIEF MVFR COND POSSIBLE AT TJMZ/TJPS WITH MTN TOPS
OBSCD FROM 26/17Z THROUGH 26/23Z DUE TO POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. SFC WINDS FROM THE E-NE AT 5 TO
10 AND LAND BREEZES DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. AFT 26/12Z...AT 10 TO 15
KT...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...AND GUSTING UP 25KT TIL 26/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...DEVELOPING TROUGH ABOUT 28N/58W WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWEST UNTIL DUE NORTH ON THU. IT WILL KEEP THE TRADES
RELATIVELY WEAK AND SEAS DOWN UNTIL BOTH BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN ABOUT
SAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM AST MON MAY 25 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC A CUT-OFF LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TOMORROW
MEANDERING AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY...AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LOW. AS PATTERN EVOLVES...WINDS WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY PULLING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED DURING MUCH
OF THE DAY ACROSS ALL LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WAS OBSERVED EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET. URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
OVERNIGHT...AS WINDS SHIFT MORE NORTHEASTERLY...PASSING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI AND THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

AT LEAST UNTIL THURSDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR WITH STREAMERS FORMING OFF THE
ISLANDS AND BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS DURING
THE NIGHTTIME. AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES DUE TO THE
CUT-OFF LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH...A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
DURING THE END OF WEEK...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ABOVE THAN
NORMAL PWAT VALUES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THRU NEXT
MONDAY. IN GENERAL...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND OVER THE ISLANDS.

AVIATION...VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AND FROM SW
PR TO WITHIN 15 MILES OF TJSJ WITH MTN TOPS OBSCD FROM 25/17Z
THROUGH 25/22Z DUE TO POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. SFC WINDS FROM THE E-NE AT 10 TO 15
KT...GUSTING UP 24KT TIL 25/23Z. LAND BREEZES DEVELOPING AFT
26/00Z.

MARINE...NEARSHORE BUOYS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET AND
EAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BELOW 5
FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  87  78  88 /  70  70  20  20
STT  77  88  77  88 /  70  70  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

27/54



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 260247
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1047 PM AST MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE FINISHED OVER WESTERN PR WHILE
QUITE A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO SURROUNDING WATER. RAISE THE
COVERAGE FROM USVI AND SAN JUAN NORTHWARD AND BELIEVE SCATTERED IS
SUFFICIENT ELSEWHERE FOR TONIGHT/EARLY TUE. SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF
THOUGH AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. LITTLE CHANGE OTHERWISE TO GRIDS/FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR COND EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SCT SHRA ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...
SOME OF THEM WILL AFFECT TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TKPK/TNCM. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BRIEF MVFR COND POSSIBLE AT TJMZ/TJPS WITH MTN TOPS
OBSCD FROM 26/17Z THROUGH 26/23Z DUE TO POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. SFC WINDS FROM THE E-NE AT 5 TO
10 AND LAND BREEZES DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. AFT 26/12Z...AT 10 TO 15
KT...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...AND GUSTING UP 25KT TIL 26/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...DEVELOPING TROUGH ABOUT 28N/58W WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWEST UNTIL DUE NORTH ON THU. IT WILL KEEP THE TRADES
RELATIVELY WEAK AND SEAS DOWN UNTIL BOTH BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN ABOUT
SAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM AST MON MAY 25 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC A CUT-OFF LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TOMORROW
MEANDERING AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY...AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LOW. AS PATTERN EVOLVES...WINDS WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY PULLING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED DURING MUCH
OF THE DAY ACROSS ALL LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WAS OBSERVED EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET. URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
OVERNIGHT...AS WINDS SHIFT MORE NORTHEASTERLY...PASSING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI AND THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

AT LEAST UNTIL THURSDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR WITH STREAMERS FORMING OFF THE
ISLANDS AND BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS DURING
THE NIGHTTIME. AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES DUE TO THE
CUT-OFF LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH...A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
DURING THE END OF WEEK...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ABOVE THAN
NORMAL PWAT VALUES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THRU NEXT
MONDAY. IN GENERAL...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND OVER THE ISLANDS.

AVIATION...VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AND FROM SW
PR TO WITHIN 15 MILES OF TJSJ WITH MTN TOPS OBSCD FROM 25/17Z
THROUGH 25/22Z DUE TO POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. SFC WINDS FROM THE E-NE AT 10 TO 15
KT...GUSTING UP 24KT TIL 25/23Z. LAND BREEZES DEVELOPING AFT
26/00Z.

MARINE...NEARSHORE BUOYS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET AND
EAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BELOW 5
FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  87  78  88 /  70  70  20  20
STT  77  88  77  88 /  70  70  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

27/54



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 251850
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC A CUT-OFF LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TOMORROW
MEANDERING AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY...AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LOW. AS PATTERN EVOLVES...WINDS WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY PULLING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED DURING MUCH
OF THE DAY ACROSS ALL LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WAS OBSERVED EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET. URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
OVERNIGHT...AS WINDS SHIFT MORE NORTHEASTERLY...PASSING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI AND THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

AT LEAST UNTIL THURSDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR WITH STREAMERS FORMING OFF THE
ISLANDS AND BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS DURING
THE NIGHTTIME. AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES DUE TO THE
CUT-OFF LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH...A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
DURING THE END OF WEEK...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ABOVE THAN
NORMAL PWAT VALUES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THRU NEXT
MONDAY. IN GENERAL...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND OVER THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AND FROM SW
PR TO WITHIN 15 MILES OF TJSJ WITH MTN TOPS OBSCD FROM 25/17Z
THROUGH 25/22Z DUE TO POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. SFC WINDS FROM THE E-NE AT 10 TO 15
KT...GUSTING UP 24KT TIL 25/23Z. LAND BREEZES DEVELOPING AFT
26/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...NEARSHORE BUOYS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET AND
EAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BELOW 5
FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  87  78  88 /  50  50  20  20
STT  77  88  77  88 /  50  50  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/13




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 251850
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC A CUT-OFF LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TOMORROW
MEANDERING AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY...AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LOW. AS PATTERN EVOLVES...WINDS WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY PULLING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED DURING MUCH
OF THE DAY ACROSS ALL LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WAS OBSERVED EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET. URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
OVERNIGHT...AS WINDS SHIFT MORE NORTHEASTERLY...PASSING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI AND THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

AT LEAST UNTIL THURSDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR WITH STREAMERS FORMING OFF THE
ISLANDS AND BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS DURING
THE NIGHTTIME. AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES DUE TO THE
CUT-OFF LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH...A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
DURING THE END OF WEEK...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ABOVE THAN
NORMAL PWAT VALUES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THRU NEXT
MONDAY. IN GENERAL...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND OVER THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AND FROM SW
PR TO WITHIN 15 MILES OF TJSJ WITH MTN TOPS OBSCD FROM 25/17Z
THROUGH 25/22Z DUE TO POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. SFC WINDS FROM THE E-NE AT 10 TO 15
KT...GUSTING UP 24KT TIL 25/23Z. LAND BREEZES DEVELOPING AFT
26/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...NEARSHORE BUOYS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET AND
EAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BELOW 5
FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  87  78  88 /  50  50  20  20
STT  77  88  77  88 /  50  50  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/13




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 251850
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC A CUT-OFF LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TOMORROW
MEANDERING AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY...AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LOW. AS PATTERN EVOLVES...WINDS WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY PULLING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED DURING MUCH
OF THE DAY ACROSS ALL LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WAS OBSERVED EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET. URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
OVERNIGHT...AS WINDS SHIFT MORE NORTHEASTERLY...PASSING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI AND THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

AT LEAST UNTIL THURSDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR WITH STREAMERS FORMING OFF THE
ISLANDS AND BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS DURING
THE NIGHTTIME. AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES DUE TO THE
CUT-OFF LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH...A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
DURING THE END OF WEEK...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ABOVE THAN
NORMAL PWAT VALUES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THRU NEXT
MONDAY. IN GENERAL...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND OVER THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AND FROM SW
PR TO WITHIN 15 MILES OF TJSJ WITH MTN TOPS OBSCD FROM 25/17Z
THROUGH 25/22Z DUE TO POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. SFC WINDS FROM THE E-NE AT 10 TO 15
KT...GUSTING UP 24KT TIL 25/23Z. LAND BREEZES DEVELOPING AFT
26/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...NEARSHORE BUOYS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET AND
EAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BELOW 5
FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  87  78  88 /  50  50  20  20
STT  77  88  77  88 /  50  50  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/13




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 251850
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC A CUT-OFF LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TOMORROW
MEANDERING AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY...AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LOW. AS PATTERN EVOLVES...WINDS WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY PULLING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED DURING MUCH
OF THE DAY ACROSS ALL LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WAS OBSERVED EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET. URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
OVERNIGHT...AS WINDS SHIFT MORE NORTHEASTERLY...PASSING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI AND THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

AT LEAST UNTIL THURSDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR WITH STREAMERS FORMING OFF THE
ISLANDS AND BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS DURING
THE NIGHTTIME. AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES DUE TO THE
CUT-OFF LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH...A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
DURING THE END OF WEEK...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ABOVE THAN
NORMAL PWAT VALUES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THRU NEXT
MONDAY. IN GENERAL...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND OVER THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AND FROM SW
PR TO WITHIN 15 MILES OF TJSJ WITH MTN TOPS OBSCD FROM 25/17Z
THROUGH 25/22Z DUE TO POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. SFC WINDS FROM THE E-NE AT 10 TO 15
KT...GUSTING UP 24KT TIL 25/23Z. LAND BREEZES DEVELOPING AFT
26/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...NEARSHORE BUOYS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET AND
EAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BELOW 5
FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  87  78  88 /  50  50  20  20
STT  77  88  77  88 /  50  50  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/13




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 251626 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1226 PM AST MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...STREAMERS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM OFF OF VIEQUES...SAINT
THOMAS...AND CULEBRA. THE ONE OFF OF VIEQUES HAS AFFECTED THE
SLOPES OF THE COASTAL RANGE IN MAUNABO AND THE STREAMER OFF OF
CULEBRA LEFT SOME SHOWERS IN LUQUILLO AND RIO GRANDE...BUT
OTHERWISE NO SHOWERS HAVE FORMED OVER THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO
RICO...YET. EXAMINATION OF THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM 25/12Z SHOWED
DECREASED MOISTURE AND A PINCH POINT FOR RISING AIR JUST BELOW THE
500 MB LEVEL...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT GOOD
CONVECTION FROM THE HEATING THAT HAS TRANSPIRED DURING MOST OF THE
MORNING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN TWO THIRDS OF PUERTO RICO. THEREFORE
THE POPS OVER KEY AREAS NEAR THE CORDILLERA...AND...IN AND
CENTERED AROUND MARICAO HAVE BEEN RAISED TO NUMEROUS.

&&

.AVIATION...NO CHANGES...SOME TSRA POSSIBLE OVER AND AROUND THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM AST MON MAY 25 2015/

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WITH ASSOCIATED CUT OFF LOW
MEANDERING NORTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AS CUT OFF LOW WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PATTERN WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BRIEF SHOWERS WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS WERE OBSERVED OVER WINDWARD AREAS. THE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS. THE WIND BECAME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

ALTHOUGH TROUGHINESS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN UNDER 850MB THRU THURSDAY. THEREFORE
LOCAL WEATHER REGIME WILL BE MAINLY DICTATED BY DIURNAL HEATING
AND SEA BREEZES. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SOME TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA
IN THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY.

FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND..A SHARP INCREASE IN TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AT ALL LEVELS. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS WITH
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND.
STAY TUNED.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 25/16Z. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE AT TJMZ WITH MTN TOP
OBSCD FROM 25/17Z THROUGH 25/22Z DUE TO POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. SFC WINDS FROM THE E-NE
AT 10 TO 15 KT...GUSTING UP TO THE LOW 20S AFTER 25/14Z...SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS DEVELOPING AROUND 25/14Z.

MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS WITH SEAS
BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  78  87  78 /  20  50  50  20
STT  88  77  88  77 /  20  50  50  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/13




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250952
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WITH ASSOCIATED CUT OFF LOW
MEANDERING NORTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AS CUT OFF LOW WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PATTERN WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BRIEF SHOWERS WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS WERE OBSERVED OVER WINDWARD AREAS. THE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS. THE WIND BECAME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

ALTHOUGH TROFINNES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN UNDER 850MB THRU THURSDAY. THEREFORE
LOCAL WEATHER REGIME WILL BE MAINLY DICTATED BY DIURNAL HEATING
AND SEA BREEZES. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SOME TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA
IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY THRU THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND..A SHARP INCREASE IN TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AT ALL LEVELS. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS WITH
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND.
STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 25/16Z. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE AT JMZ WITH MTN TOP
OBSCD FROM 25/17Z THROUGH 25/22Z DUE TO POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. SFC WINDS FROM THE E-NE
AT 10 TO 15 KT...GUSTING UP TO THE LOW 20S AFTER 25/14Z...SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS DEVELOPING AROUND 25/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS WITH SEAS
BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE DE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  78  87  78 /  20  30  30  20
STT  88  77  88  77 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250952
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WITH ASSOCIATED CUT OFF LOW
MEANDERING NORTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AS CUT OFF LOW WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PATTERN WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BRIEF SHOWERS WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS WERE OBSERVED OVER WINDWARD AREAS. THE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS. THE WIND BECAME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

ALTHOUGH TROFINNES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN UNDER 850MB THRU THURSDAY. THEREFORE
LOCAL WEATHER REGIME WILL BE MAINLY DICTATED BY DIURNAL HEATING
AND SEA BREEZES. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SOME TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA
IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY THRU THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND..A SHARP INCREASE IN TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AT ALL LEVELS. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS WITH
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND.
STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 25/16Z. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE AT JMZ WITH MTN TOP
OBSCD FROM 25/17Z THROUGH 25/22Z DUE TO POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. SFC WINDS FROM THE E-NE
AT 10 TO 15 KT...GUSTING UP TO THE LOW 20S AFTER 25/14Z...SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS DEVELOPING AROUND 25/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS WITH SEAS
BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE DE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  78  87  78 /  20  30  30  20
STT  88  77  88  77 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250952
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WITH ASSOCIATED CUT OFF LOW
MEANDERING NORTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AS CUT OFF LOW WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PATTERN WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BRIEF SHOWERS WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS WERE OBSERVED OVER WINDWARD AREAS. THE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS. THE WIND BECAME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

ALTHOUGH TROFINNES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN UNDER 850MB THRU THURSDAY. THEREFORE
LOCAL WEATHER REGIME WILL BE MAINLY DICTATED BY DIURNAL HEATING
AND SEA BREEZES. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SOME TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA
IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY THRU THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND..A SHARP INCREASE IN TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AT ALL LEVELS. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS WITH
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND.
STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 25/16Z. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE AT JMZ WITH MTN TOP
OBSCD FROM 25/17Z THROUGH 25/22Z DUE TO POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. SFC WINDS FROM THE E-NE
AT 10 TO 15 KT...GUSTING UP TO THE LOW 20S AFTER 25/14Z...SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS DEVELOPING AROUND 25/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS WITH SEAS
BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE DE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  78  87  78 /  20  30  30  20
STT  88  77  88  77 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250952
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WITH ASSOCIATED CUT OFF LOW
MEANDERING NORTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AS CUT OFF LOW WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PATTERN WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BRIEF SHOWERS WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS WERE OBSERVED OVER WINDWARD AREAS. THE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS. THE WIND BECAME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

ALTHOUGH TROFINNES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN UNDER 850MB THRU THURSDAY. THEREFORE
LOCAL WEATHER REGIME WILL BE MAINLY DICTATED BY DIURNAL HEATING
AND SEA BREEZES. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SOME TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA
IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY THRU THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND..A SHARP INCREASE IN TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AT ALL LEVELS. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS WITH
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND.
STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 25/16Z. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE AT JMZ WITH MTN TOP
OBSCD FROM 25/17Z THROUGH 25/22Z DUE TO POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. SFC WINDS FROM THE E-NE
AT 10 TO 15 KT...GUSTING UP TO THE LOW 20S AFTER 25/14Z...SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS DEVELOPING AROUND 25/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS WITH SEAS
BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE DE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  78  87  78 /  20  30  30  20
STT  88  77  88  77 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250952 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WITH ASSOCIATED CUT OFF LOW
MEANDERING NORTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AS CUT OFF LOW WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PATTERN WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BRIEF SHOWERS WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS WERE OBSERVED OVER WINDWARD AREAS. THE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS. THE WIND BECAME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

ALTHOUGH TROFINNES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN UNDER 850MB THRU THURSDAY. THEREFORE
LOCAL WEATHER REGIME WILL BE MAINLY DICTATED BY DIURNAL HEATING
AND SEA BREEZES. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SOME TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA
IN THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY.

FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND..A SHARP INCREASE IN TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AT ALL LEVELS. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS WITH
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND.
STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 25/16Z. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE AT JMZ WITH MTN TOP
OBSCD FROM 25/17Z THROUGH 25/22Z DUE TO POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. SFC WINDS FROM THE E-NE
AT 10 TO 15 KT...GUSTING UP TO THE LOW 20S AFTER 25/14Z...SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS DEVELOPING AROUND 25/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS WITH SEAS
BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  78  87  78 /  20  30  30  20
STT  88  77  88  77 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250952 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WITH ASSOCIATED CUT OFF LOW
MEANDERING NORTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AS CUT OFF LOW WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PATTERN WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BRIEF SHOWERS WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS WERE OBSERVED OVER WINDWARD AREAS. THE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS. THE WIND BECAME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

ALTHOUGH TROFINNES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN UNDER 850MB THRU THURSDAY. THEREFORE
LOCAL WEATHER REGIME WILL BE MAINLY DICTATED BY DIURNAL HEATING
AND SEA BREEZES. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SOME TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA
IN THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY.

FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND..A SHARP INCREASE IN TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AT ALL LEVELS. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS WITH
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND.
STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 25/16Z. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE AT JMZ WITH MTN TOP
OBSCD FROM 25/17Z THROUGH 25/22Z DUE TO POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. SFC WINDS FROM THE E-NE
AT 10 TO 15 KT...GUSTING UP TO THE LOW 20S AFTER 25/14Z...SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS DEVELOPING AROUND 25/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS WITH SEAS
BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  78  87  78 /  20  30  30  20
STT  88  77  88  77 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250952 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WITH ASSOCIATED CUT OFF LOW
MEANDERING NORTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AS CUT OFF LOW WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PATTERN WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BRIEF SHOWERS WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS WERE OBSERVED OVER WINDWARD AREAS. THE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS. THE WIND BECAME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

ALTHOUGH TROFINNES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN UNDER 850MB THRU THURSDAY. THEREFORE
LOCAL WEATHER REGIME WILL BE MAINLY DICTATED BY DIURNAL HEATING
AND SEA BREEZES. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SOME TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA
IN THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY.

FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND..A SHARP INCREASE IN TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AT ALL LEVELS. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS WITH
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND.
STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 25/16Z. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE AT JMZ WITH MTN TOP
OBSCD FROM 25/17Z THROUGH 25/22Z DUE TO POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. SFC WINDS FROM THE E-NE
AT 10 TO 15 KT...GUSTING UP TO THE LOW 20S AFTER 25/14Z...SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS DEVELOPING AROUND 25/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS WITH SEAS
BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  78  87  78 /  20  30  30  20
STT  88  77  88  77 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23



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