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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 210726
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
326 AM AST SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
MONA PASSAGE ARE RIDING JUST AHEAD OF A 850 MB SPEED MAXIMUM
WHICH WILL CLEAR WEST OF THE PASSAGE THIS MORNING NEAR OR SOON
AFTER 12Z. ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES BEHIND IN
HIGH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AS SHOWN BY
SSMI AND MIMIC-TPW IMAGES. 00Z GFS HAS A NICE HANDLE ON THE
DISTRIBUTION OF THIS MOISTURE AND SUGGESTS A HIGH NORTH TO SOUTH
MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER PR/USVI AND EXTENDING TO NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS TODAY. WRF AND NAM TAKE PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN PR
AND NORTH OF THE ISLAND THIS MORNING WHILE GFS KEEPS IT FARTHER
SOUTH...STILL OVER PR. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER PR THIS MORNING
SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE 850 MB FLOW...A
CURRENTLY COOL ISLAND AND RELATIVE LACK OF CURRENT UPSTREAM
ACTIVITY.

WIND FLOW SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR AT ANY LEVEL IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY OR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...INSTEAD
DEPENDENT MORE ON HOW MUCH SOLAR HEATING OCCURS AND WHERE SEA
BREEZES SET UP. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER CARIBBEAN
COASTAL WATERS ARE SPREADING BUT MOST OF THIS WILL DISSIPATE AND
MOVE WEST BEFORE MUCH SUNSHINE OCCURS. GFS SHOWS 2+ INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 18Z TODAY OVER WEST AND SOUTH PR...EXPECT
MOST AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY OVER WEST PR WHERE THE
BEST HEATING WILL OCCUR AND RESULTANT SEA BREEZES FOCUS.

MOISTURE DECREASES SOMEWHAT ON MON BUT REBOUNDS IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING ARRIVAL OF A TROPICAL WAVE ON MON NIGHT. GFS SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER PERSISTENTLY NEAR 2 INCHES FROM TUE-THU.
CONVECTION AGAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED TSRA TOPS TO
FL400-450 MAINLY OVER THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. AFTER 21/16Z AREAS
OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PUERTO RICO WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LLVL WINDS ELY UP TO 20 KT WITH
LAND/SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...MINOR SWELL IS MOVING WESTWARD NORTHEAST OF LEEWARD
ISLANDS. BUOY 41044 IS CURRENTLY RECORDING 5 FT SEAS AND ABOUT A
FOOT HIGHER THAN MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW. THESE SEAS WILL PASS
NORTH OF PR ON MON AND MAINLY NORTH OF 20N. MAINTAINING 4 FT IN
COASTAL WATERS GOOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  79  89  79 /  20  30  30  20
STT  89  79  89  79 /  40  40  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/54





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 210726
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
326 AM AST SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
MONA PASSAGE ARE RIDING JUST AHEAD OF A 850 MB SPEED MAXIMUM
WHICH WILL CLEAR WEST OF THE PASSAGE THIS MORNING NEAR OR SOON
AFTER 12Z. ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES BEHIND IN
HIGH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AS SHOWN BY
SSMI AND MIMIC-TPW IMAGES. 00Z GFS HAS A NICE HANDLE ON THE
DISTRIBUTION OF THIS MOISTURE AND SUGGESTS A HIGH NORTH TO SOUTH
MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER PR/USVI AND EXTENDING TO NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS TODAY. WRF AND NAM TAKE PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN PR
AND NORTH OF THE ISLAND THIS MORNING WHILE GFS KEEPS IT FARTHER
SOUTH...STILL OVER PR. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER PR THIS MORNING
SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE 850 MB FLOW...A
CURRENTLY COOL ISLAND AND RELATIVE LACK OF CURRENT UPSTREAM
ACTIVITY.

WIND FLOW SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR AT ANY LEVEL IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY OR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...INSTEAD
DEPENDENT MORE ON HOW MUCH SOLAR HEATING OCCURS AND WHERE SEA
BREEZES SET UP. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER CARIBBEAN
COASTAL WATERS ARE SPREADING BUT MOST OF THIS WILL DISSIPATE AND
MOVE WEST BEFORE MUCH SUNSHINE OCCURS. GFS SHOWS 2+ INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 18Z TODAY OVER WEST AND SOUTH PR...EXPECT
MOST AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY OVER WEST PR WHERE THE
BEST HEATING WILL OCCUR AND RESULTANT SEA BREEZES FOCUS.

MOISTURE DECREASES SOMEWHAT ON MON BUT REBOUNDS IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING ARRIVAL OF A TROPICAL WAVE ON MON NIGHT. GFS SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER PERSISTENTLY NEAR 2 INCHES FROM TUE-THU.
CONVECTION AGAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED TSRA TOPS TO
FL400-450 MAINLY OVER THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. AFTER 21/16Z AREAS
OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PUERTO RICO WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LLVL WINDS ELY UP TO 20 KT WITH
LAND/SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...MINOR SWELL IS MOVING WESTWARD NORTHEAST OF LEEWARD
ISLANDS. BUOY 41044 IS CURRENTLY RECORDING 5 FT SEAS AND ABOUT A
FOOT HIGHER THAN MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW. THESE SEAS WILL PASS
NORTH OF PR ON MON AND MAINLY NORTH OF 20N. MAINTAINING 4 FT IN
COASTAL WATERS GOOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  79  89  79 /  20  30  30  20
STT  89  79  89  79 /  40  40  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/54





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 210726
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
326 AM AST SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
MONA PASSAGE ARE RIDING JUST AHEAD OF A 850 MB SPEED MAXIMUM
WHICH WILL CLEAR WEST OF THE PASSAGE THIS MORNING NEAR OR SOON
AFTER 12Z. ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES BEHIND IN
HIGH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AS SHOWN BY
SSMI AND MIMIC-TPW IMAGES. 00Z GFS HAS A NICE HANDLE ON THE
DISTRIBUTION OF THIS MOISTURE AND SUGGESTS A HIGH NORTH TO SOUTH
MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER PR/USVI AND EXTENDING TO NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS TODAY. WRF AND NAM TAKE PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN PR
AND NORTH OF THE ISLAND THIS MORNING WHILE GFS KEEPS IT FARTHER
SOUTH...STILL OVER PR. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER PR THIS MORNING
SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE 850 MB FLOW...A
CURRENTLY COOL ISLAND AND RELATIVE LACK OF CURRENT UPSTREAM
ACTIVITY.

WIND FLOW SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR AT ANY LEVEL IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY OR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...INSTEAD
DEPENDENT MORE ON HOW MUCH SOLAR HEATING OCCURS AND WHERE SEA
BREEZES SET UP. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER CARIBBEAN
COASTAL WATERS ARE SPREADING BUT MOST OF THIS WILL DISSIPATE AND
MOVE WEST BEFORE MUCH SUNSHINE OCCURS. GFS SHOWS 2+ INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 18Z TODAY OVER WEST AND SOUTH PR...EXPECT
MOST AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY OVER WEST PR WHERE THE
BEST HEATING WILL OCCUR AND RESULTANT SEA BREEZES FOCUS.

MOISTURE DECREASES SOMEWHAT ON MON BUT REBOUNDS IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING ARRIVAL OF A TROPICAL WAVE ON MON NIGHT. GFS SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER PERSISTENTLY NEAR 2 INCHES FROM TUE-THU.
CONVECTION AGAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED TSRA TOPS TO
FL400-450 MAINLY OVER THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. AFTER 21/16Z AREAS
OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PUERTO RICO WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LLVL WINDS ELY UP TO 20 KT WITH
LAND/SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...MINOR SWELL IS MOVING WESTWARD NORTHEAST OF LEEWARD
ISLANDS. BUOY 41044 IS CURRENTLY RECORDING 5 FT SEAS AND ABOUT A
FOOT HIGHER THAN MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW. THESE SEAS WILL PASS
NORTH OF PR ON MON AND MAINLY NORTH OF 20N. MAINTAINING 4 FT IN
COASTAL WATERS GOOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  79  89  79 /  20  30  30  20
STT  89  79  89  79 /  40  40  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/54





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 210726
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
326 AM AST SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
MONA PASSAGE ARE RIDING JUST AHEAD OF A 850 MB SPEED MAXIMUM
WHICH WILL CLEAR WEST OF THE PASSAGE THIS MORNING NEAR OR SOON
AFTER 12Z. ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES BEHIND IN
HIGH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AS SHOWN BY
SSMI AND MIMIC-TPW IMAGES. 00Z GFS HAS A NICE HANDLE ON THE
DISTRIBUTION OF THIS MOISTURE AND SUGGESTS A HIGH NORTH TO SOUTH
MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER PR/USVI AND EXTENDING TO NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS TODAY. WRF AND NAM TAKE PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN PR
AND NORTH OF THE ISLAND THIS MORNING WHILE GFS KEEPS IT FARTHER
SOUTH...STILL OVER PR. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER PR THIS MORNING
SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE 850 MB FLOW...A
CURRENTLY COOL ISLAND AND RELATIVE LACK OF CURRENT UPSTREAM
ACTIVITY.

WIND FLOW SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR AT ANY LEVEL IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY OR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...INSTEAD
DEPENDENT MORE ON HOW MUCH SOLAR HEATING OCCURS AND WHERE SEA
BREEZES SET UP. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER CARIBBEAN
COASTAL WATERS ARE SPREADING BUT MOST OF THIS WILL DISSIPATE AND
MOVE WEST BEFORE MUCH SUNSHINE OCCURS. GFS SHOWS 2+ INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 18Z TODAY OVER WEST AND SOUTH PR...EXPECT
MOST AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY OVER WEST PR WHERE THE
BEST HEATING WILL OCCUR AND RESULTANT SEA BREEZES FOCUS.

MOISTURE DECREASES SOMEWHAT ON MON BUT REBOUNDS IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING ARRIVAL OF A TROPICAL WAVE ON MON NIGHT. GFS SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER PERSISTENTLY NEAR 2 INCHES FROM TUE-THU.
CONVECTION AGAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED TSRA TOPS TO
FL400-450 MAINLY OVER THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. AFTER 21/16Z AREAS
OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PUERTO RICO WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LLVL WINDS ELY UP TO 20 KT WITH
LAND/SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...MINOR SWELL IS MOVING WESTWARD NORTHEAST OF LEEWARD
ISLANDS. BUOY 41044 IS CURRENTLY RECORDING 5 FT SEAS AND ABOUT A
FOOT HIGHER THAN MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW. THESE SEAS WILL PASS
NORTH OF PR ON MON AND MAINLY NORTH OF 20N. MAINTAINING 4 FT IN
COASTAL WATERS GOOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  79  89  79 /  20  30  30  20
STT  89  79  89  79 /  40  40  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/54





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 210119
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
919 PM AST SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED OVER
PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH MOSTLY OVER THE
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE ISLAND AS WELL AS A FEW OVER
NORTHEASTERN PR AND BRIEFLY ACROSS THE SAN JUAN METRO. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS AND THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD
BRIEFLY AFFECT THE USVI AS WELL AS NORTH AND EASTERN PR.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY TO HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR
IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ALSO...A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE IS BEHIND THE AXIS. THIS MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN MOISTURE ON MONDAY...ALBEIT NOT DRY BY ANY MEANS...AND
THEN MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHEN THE AXIS OF THE WAVE IS ALREADY TO THE WEST OF PR.


&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA ACTIVITY WILL CONT WITH ISOLD TSRA TOPS TO
FL400-450 MAINLY OVR LCL WATERS. AFT 21/16Z AREAS MVFR/IFR CONDS IN
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING OVER WRN AND CENTRAL PR WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS.
OTHERWISE VFR. LLVL WINDS ELY UP TO 20 KT WITH LAND/SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS COULD OCCUR.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM AST SAT SEP 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...AS TUTT LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...RIDGE PATTERN WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EAST. A SECOND TUTT IS EXPECTED
TO AMPLIFY INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY.

DISCUSSION...LATEST GFS AND WRF GUIDANCE INDICATED NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS FACT COMBINED WITH BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...
WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THEREFORE EXPECT A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN
THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS W AND NW PUERTO RICO.

A WETTER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS. A DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN FROM THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES FURTHER WEST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH PWAT
VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT STILL EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF TUTT LOW POSITION
WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY. AS TUTT AXIS MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
LOCAL ISLANDS...A DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED.

AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT JBQ TIL
20/20Z. ELSEWHERE VFR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SE SFC
WINDS AT 5-10 KTS.

MARINE...SEAS 2-4 KTS AND WINDS NEAR 17KT BUT HIGHER NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  89 /  20  20  40  40
STT  79  89  79  88 /  40  40  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

12/25







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 210119
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
919 PM AST SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED OVER
PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH MOSTLY OVER THE
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE ISLAND AS WELL AS A FEW OVER
NORTHEASTERN PR AND BRIEFLY ACROSS THE SAN JUAN METRO. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS AND THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD
BRIEFLY AFFECT THE USVI AS WELL AS NORTH AND EASTERN PR.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY TO HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR
IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ALSO...A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE IS BEHIND THE AXIS. THIS MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN MOISTURE ON MONDAY...ALBEIT NOT DRY BY ANY MEANS...AND
THEN MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHEN THE AXIS OF THE WAVE IS ALREADY TO THE WEST OF PR.


&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA ACTIVITY WILL CONT WITH ISOLD TSRA TOPS TO
FL400-450 MAINLY OVR LCL WATERS. AFT 21/16Z AREAS MVFR/IFR CONDS IN
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING OVER WRN AND CENTRAL PR WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS.
OTHERWISE VFR. LLVL WINDS ELY UP TO 20 KT WITH LAND/SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS COULD OCCUR.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM AST SAT SEP 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...AS TUTT LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...RIDGE PATTERN WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EAST. A SECOND TUTT IS EXPECTED
TO AMPLIFY INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY.

DISCUSSION...LATEST GFS AND WRF GUIDANCE INDICATED NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS FACT COMBINED WITH BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...
WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THEREFORE EXPECT A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN
THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS W AND NW PUERTO RICO.

A WETTER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS. A DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN FROM THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES FURTHER WEST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH PWAT
VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT STILL EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF TUTT LOW POSITION
WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY. AS TUTT AXIS MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
LOCAL ISLANDS...A DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED.

AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT JBQ TIL
20/20Z. ELSEWHERE VFR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SE SFC
WINDS AT 5-10 KTS.

MARINE...SEAS 2-4 KTS AND WINDS NEAR 17KT BUT HIGHER NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  89 /  20  20  40  40
STT  79  89  79  88 /  40  40  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

12/25








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 201907
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AS TUTT LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...RIDGE PATTERN WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EAST. A SECOND TUTT IS EXPECTED
TO AMPLIFY INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST GFS AND WRF GUIDANCE INDICATED NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS FACT COMBINED WITH BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...
WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THEREFORE EXPECT A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN
THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS W AND NW PUERTO RICO.

A WETTER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS. A DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN FROM THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES FURTHER WEST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH PWAT
VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT STILL EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF TUTT LOW POSITION
WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY. AS TUTT AXIS MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
LOCAL ISLANDS...A DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT JBQ TIL
20/20Z. ELSEWHERE VFR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SE SFC
WINDS AT 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 KTS AND WINDS NEAR 17KT BUT HIGHER NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  89 /  20  20  40  40
STT  79  89  79  88 /  40  40  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

64/23





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 201907
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AS TUTT LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...RIDGE PATTERN WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EAST. A SECOND TUTT IS EXPECTED
TO AMPLIFY INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST GFS AND WRF GUIDANCE INDICATED NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS FACT COMBINED WITH BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...
WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THEREFORE EXPECT A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN
THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS W AND NW PUERTO RICO.

A WETTER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS. A DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN FROM THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES FURTHER WEST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH PWAT
VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT STILL EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF TUTT LOW POSITION
WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY. AS TUTT AXIS MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
LOCAL ISLANDS...A DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT JBQ TIL
20/20Z. ELSEWHERE VFR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SE SFC
WINDS AT 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 KTS AND WINDS NEAR 17KT BUT HIGHER NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  89 /  20  20  40  40
STT  79  89  79  88 /  40  40  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

64/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 201531 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1131 AM AST SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TUTT PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION
WILL CONCENTRATE OVER NORTHWEST PR AND MONA PASSAGE FOR THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH SIG IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AFTER 4 PM.

MUCH DRYER TONIGHT COMPARED TO PAST TWO NIGHTS. NICE DAY ON TAP
FOR SUNDAY UNTIL NEXT WAVE REACHES THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CIGS AT JBQ. ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD SEE
SIG IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 KT AND WINDS NEAR 15KT BUT HIGHER NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  79  89  79 /  30  30  30  20
STT  87  78  89  80 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

64/64






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 201531 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1131 AM AST SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TUTT PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION
WILL CONCENTRATE OVER NORTHWEST PR AND MONA PASSAGE FOR THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH SIG IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AFTER 4 PM.

MUCH DRYER TONIGHT COMPARED TO PAST TWO NIGHTS. NICE DAY ON TAP
FOR SUNDAY UNTIL NEXT WAVE REACHES THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CIGS AT JBQ. ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD SEE
SIG IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 KT AND WINDS NEAR 15KT BUT HIGHER NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  79  89  79 /  30  30  30  20
STT  87  78  89  80 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

64/64






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 201531 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1131 AM AST SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TUTT PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION
WILL CONCENTRATE OVER NORTHWEST PR AND MONA PASSAGE FOR THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH SIG IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AFTER 4 PM.

MUCH DRYER TONIGHT COMPARED TO PAST TWO NIGHTS. NICE DAY ON TAP
FOR SUNDAY UNTIL NEXT WAVE REACHES THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CIGS AT JBQ. ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD SEE
SIG IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 KT AND WINDS NEAR 15KT BUT HIGHER NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  79  89  79 /  30  30  30  20
STT  87  78  89  80 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

64/64






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 201531 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1131 AM AST SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TUTT PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION
WILL CONCENTRATE OVER NORTHWEST PR AND MONA PASSAGE FOR THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH SIG IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AFTER 4 PM.

MUCH DRYER TONIGHT COMPARED TO PAST TWO NIGHTS. NICE DAY ON TAP
FOR SUNDAY UNTIL NEXT WAVE REACHES THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CIGS AT JBQ. ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD SEE
SIG IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 KT AND WINDS NEAR 15KT BUT HIGHER NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  79  89  79 /  30  30  30  20
STT  87  78  89  80 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

64/64






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 200910
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
510 AM AST SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND A
TROPICAL WAVE WITH ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES...WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION. TUTT LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL SLOWLY RETROGRESSING WEST
OF THE ISLANDS LATER TODAY. WEAK EASTERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH
INDUCED BY THE TUTT...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
PERIODS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOCAL
ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TUTT LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ...WILL CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME OF THEM
REACHING PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS ACTIVITY
WILL THEN DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. DURING THE REST OF THE DAY...LOCAL AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS WILL LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SOME OF
THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THE TUTT AND MAY PRODUCE ONE OR TWO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SO FAR THE TUTT IS STILL FORECAST
TO SLOWLY RETROGRESS WEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
TO DAY WITH WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD ALOFT BY
SUNDAY.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
LATE SUNDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE. THEREAFTER IT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
MORNING 20/16Z...POSSIBLY AFFECTING TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TNCM...AND
TKPK BRIEFLY WITH VCSH LIKELY FOR THOSE TERMINALS. AFTER
20/16Z...SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR WILL
CAUSE MTN OBSCURATIONS AND AFFECT TJMZ AND TJBQ. EASTERLY SFC WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING AT ABOUT 5-10 KTS INCREASING SLIGHTLY
AFTER 20/12Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.


&&

.MARINE...LOCAL SEAS CONTINUED AT 4 FEET OR LESS WITH PREVAILING
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST TROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
FOR THE LATEST AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  79  89  79 /  30  30  30  20
STT  87  78  89  80 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/09






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 200910
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
510 AM AST SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND A
TROPICAL WAVE WITH ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES...WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION. TUTT LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL SLOWLY RETROGRESSING WEST
OF THE ISLANDS LATER TODAY. WEAK EASTERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH
INDUCED BY THE TUTT...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
PERIODS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOCAL
ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TUTT LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ...WILL CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME OF THEM
REACHING PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS ACTIVITY
WILL THEN DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. DURING THE REST OF THE DAY...LOCAL AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS WILL LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SOME OF
THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THE TUTT AND MAY PRODUCE ONE OR TWO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SO FAR THE TUTT IS STILL FORECAST
TO SLOWLY RETROGRESS WEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
TO DAY WITH WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD ALOFT BY
SUNDAY.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
LATE SUNDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE. THEREAFTER IT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
MORNING 20/16Z...POSSIBLY AFFECTING TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TNCM...AND
TKPK BRIEFLY WITH VCSH LIKELY FOR THOSE TERMINALS. AFTER
20/16Z...SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR WILL
CAUSE MTN OBSCURATIONS AND AFFECT TJMZ AND TJBQ. EASTERLY SFC WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING AT ABOUT 5-10 KTS INCREASING SLIGHTLY
AFTER 20/12Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.


&&

.MARINE...LOCAL SEAS CONTINUED AT 4 FEET OR LESS WITH PREVAILING
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST TROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
FOR THE LATEST AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  79  89  79 /  30  30  30  20
STT  87  78  89  80 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/09






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 200910
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
510 AM AST SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND A
TROPICAL WAVE WITH ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES...WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION. TUTT LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL SLOWLY RETROGRESSING WEST
OF THE ISLANDS LATER TODAY. WEAK EASTERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH
INDUCED BY THE TUTT...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
PERIODS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOCAL
ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TUTT LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ...WILL CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME OF THEM
REACHING PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS ACTIVITY
WILL THEN DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. DURING THE REST OF THE DAY...LOCAL AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS WILL LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SOME OF
THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THE TUTT AND MAY PRODUCE ONE OR TWO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SO FAR THE TUTT IS STILL FORECAST
TO SLOWLY RETROGRESS WEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
TO DAY WITH WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD ALOFT BY
SUNDAY.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
LATE SUNDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE. THEREAFTER IT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
MORNING 20/16Z...POSSIBLY AFFECTING TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TNCM...AND
TKPK BRIEFLY WITH VCSH LIKELY FOR THOSE TERMINALS. AFTER
20/16Z...SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR WILL
CAUSE MTN OBSCURATIONS AND AFFECT TJMZ AND TJBQ. EASTERLY SFC WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING AT ABOUT 5-10 KTS INCREASING SLIGHTLY
AFTER 20/12Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.


&&

.MARINE...LOCAL SEAS CONTINUED AT 4 FEET OR LESS WITH PREVAILING
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST TROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
FOR THE LATEST AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  79  89  79 /  30  30  30  20
STT  87  78  89  80 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/09






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 200910
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
510 AM AST SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND A
TROPICAL WAVE WITH ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES...WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION. TUTT LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL SLOWLY RETROGRESSING WEST
OF THE ISLANDS LATER TODAY. WEAK EASTERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH
INDUCED BY THE TUTT...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
PERIODS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOCAL
ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TUTT LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ...WILL CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME OF THEM
REACHING PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS ACTIVITY
WILL THEN DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. DURING THE REST OF THE DAY...LOCAL AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS WILL LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SOME OF
THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THE TUTT AND MAY PRODUCE ONE OR TWO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SO FAR THE TUTT IS STILL FORECAST
TO SLOWLY RETROGRESS WEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
TO DAY WITH WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD ALOFT BY
SUNDAY.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
LATE SUNDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE. THEREAFTER IT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
MORNING 20/16Z...POSSIBLY AFFECTING TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TNCM...AND
TKPK BRIEFLY WITH VCSH LIKELY FOR THOSE TERMINALS. AFTER
20/16Z...SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR WILL
CAUSE MTN OBSCURATIONS AND AFFECT TJMZ AND TJBQ. EASTERLY SFC WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING AT ABOUT 5-10 KTS INCREASING SLIGHTLY
AFTER 20/12Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.


&&

.MARINE...LOCAL SEAS CONTINUED AT 4 FEET OR LESS WITH PREVAILING
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST TROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
FOR THE LATEST AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  79  89  79 /  30  30  30  20
STT  87  78  89  80 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/09






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 200052 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
852 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...THE GFS MODEL AND THE MIMIC PRODUCT BOTH INDICATE A WEAK
WAVE OR TROUGH MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO FROM THE EAST AFTER
20/06Z THAT IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS IS
SHOWING UP AS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS FOR NOW...BUT THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND ENTER INTO EASTERN
PUERTO RICO. THE MODEL ALSO DEPICTS A SECOND TROUGH OR WAVE
ENTERING ALMOST THE SAME TIME EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN BOTH CASES
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER...MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE TUTT LOW THAT HAD ACTED AS A
FOCAL POINT FOR ACTIVITY YESTERDAY IS NOW ALMOST COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED AND WILL PLAY ONLY A VERY MINOR ROLE IN THE CONVECTION
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THERE WILL BE A VERY WEAK EAST-WEST
RIDGE OVER THE AREA AT UPPER LEVELS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND IN ELIMINATING
A TROPICAL WAVE TO CROSS ON MONDAY IN FAVOR OF SEVERAL SMALL WAVES
CROSSING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FLOW
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AT 700 MB APPEARS TO FLATTEN
OUT...LEAVING ONLY GOOD MOISTURE IN ITS PLACE. THE GFS NOW SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER REACHING A WEAK PEAK ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A
MAXIMUM OVER 2 INCHES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INTERVENING
DRIER SLOT OF AIR SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOISTURE
DIMINISHES STEADILY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING TO AS LITTLE AS 1.65 INCHES.
MOISTURE GRADUALLY IMPROVES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
SERIES OF RIPPLES IN THE FLOW OUT OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CREATING
MORE SHOWERS IN THE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT UNTIL 20/16Z...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TNCM...AND TKPK BRIEFLY WITH VCSH LIKELY FOR
THOSE TERMINALS. AFTER 20/16Z...SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PR WILL CAUSE MTN OBSCURATIONS AND AFFECT TJMZ AND
TJBQ. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT ABOUT 5-10 KTS
INCREASING SLIGHTLY AFTER 20/12Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. TOPS
LATE THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN OBSERVED UP TO 46 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...WITH TRADE WINDS MODERATE AT BEST AND NO STRONG STORMS
IN THE ATLANTIC EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED AS THE
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OTHERWISE EXPOSED WATERS SHOULD SEE
NO MORE THAN 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
MONA PASSAGE MOVES FURTHER WEST...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...AS TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE CONTINUES
TO MOVE FURTHER WEST....WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE
EVENING WILL PERSIST MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA AND W PR.

MEANDERING TUTT LOW ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH SOME OF THEM REACHING
USVI AND E PR LATE THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS USVI AND E PR IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
OF THESE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AS
TUTT AXIS MOVES WEST OF PR.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 48
WEST WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD...AND APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES
SUNDAY. IT IS TO THEN FORECAST TO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PR UNTIL AROUND 19/23Z...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE FOR ISLAND AND TJSJ TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS E TO SE OF 10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL
BELOW FL150...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 30 KT NEAR TSRA.

MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY 5 FEET OR LESS WITH
WINDS GENERALLY UP TO 17 KNOTS TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  79  88 /  40  40  30  30
STT  78  89  78  89 /  50  50  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 200052 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
852 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...THE GFS MODEL AND THE MIMIC PRODUCT BOTH INDICATE A WEAK
WAVE OR TROUGH MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO FROM THE EAST AFTER
20/06Z THAT IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS IS
SHOWING UP AS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS FOR NOW...BUT THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND ENTER INTO EASTERN
PUERTO RICO. THE MODEL ALSO DEPICTS A SECOND TROUGH OR WAVE
ENTERING ALMOST THE SAME TIME EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN BOTH CASES
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER...MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE TUTT LOW THAT HAD ACTED AS A
FOCAL POINT FOR ACTIVITY YESTERDAY IS NOW ALMOST COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED AND WILL PLAY ONLY A VERY MINOR ROLE IN THE CONVECTION
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THERE WILL BE A VERY WEAK EAST-WEST
RIDGE OVER THE AREA AT UPPER LEVELS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND IN ELIMINATING
A TROPICAL WAVE TO CROSS ON MONDAY IN FAVOR OF SEVERAL SMALL WAVES
CROSSING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FLOW
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AT 700 MB APPEARS TO FLATTEN
OUT...LEAVING ONLY GOOD MOISTURE IN ITS PLACE. THE GFS NOW SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER REACHING A WEAK PEAK ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A
MAXIMUM OVER 2 INCHES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INTERVENING
DRIER SLOT OF AIR SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOISTURE
DIMINISHES STEADILY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING TO AS LITTLE AS 1.65 INCHES.
MOISTURE GRADUALLY IMPROVES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
SERIES OF RIPPLES IN THE FLOW OUT OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CREATING
MORE SHOWERS IN THE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT UNTIL 20/16Z...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TNCM...AND TKPK BRIEFLY WITH VCSH LIKELY FOR
THOSE TERMINALS. AFTER 20/16Z...SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PR WILL CAUSE MTN OBSCURATIONS AND AFFECT TJMZ AND
TJBQ. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT ABOUT 5-10 KTS
INCREASING SLIGHTLY AFTER 20/12Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. TOPS
LATE THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN OBSERVED UP TO 46 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...WITH TRADE WINDS MODERATE AT BEST AND NO STRONG STORMS
IN THE ATLANTIC EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED AS THE
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OTHERWISE EXPOSED WATERS SHOULD SEE
NO MORE THAN 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
MONA PASSAGE MOVES FURTHER WEST...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...AS TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE CONTINUES
TO MOVE FURTHER WEST....WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE
EVENING WILL PERSIST MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA AND W PR.

MEANDERING TUTT LOW ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH SOME OF THEM REACHING
USVI AND E PR LATE THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS USVI AND E PR IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
OF THESE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AS
TUTT AXIS MOVES WEST OF PR.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 48
WEST WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD...AND APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES
SUNDAY. IT IS TO THEN FORECAST TO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PR UNTIL AROUND 19/23Z...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE FOR ISLAND AND TJSJ TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS E TO SE OF 10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL
BELOW FL150...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 30 KT NEAR TSRA.

MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY 5 FEET OR LESS WITH
WINDS GENERALLY UP TO 17 KNOTS TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  79  88 /  40  40  30  30
STT  78  89  78  89 /  50  50  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 200052 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
852 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...THE GFS MODEL AND THE MIMIC PRODUCT BOTH INDICATE A WEAK
WAVE OR TROUGH MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO FROM THE EAST AFTER
20/06Z THAT IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS IS
SHOWING UP AS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS FOR NOW...BUT THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND ENTER INTO EASTERN
PUERTO RICO. THE MODEL ALSO DEPICTS A SECOND TROUGH OR WAVE
ENTERING ALMOST THE SAME TIME EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN BOTH CASES
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER...MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE TUTT LOW THAT HAD ACTED AS A
FOCAL POINT FOR ACTIVITY YESTERDAY IS NOW ALMOST COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED AND WILL PLAY ONLY A VERY MINOR ROLE IN THE CONVECTION
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THERE WILL BE A VERY WEAK EAST-WEST
RIDGE OVER THE AREA AT UPPER LEVELS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND IN ELIMINATING
A TROPICAL WAVE TO CROSS ON MONDAY IN FAVOR OF SEVERAL SMALL WAVES
CROSSING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FLOW
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AT 700 MB APPEARS TO FLATTEN
OUT...LEAVING ONLY GOOD MOISTURE IN ITS PLACE. THE GFS NOW SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER REACHING A WEAK PEAK ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A
MAXIMUM OVER 2 INCHES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INTERVENING
DRIER SLOT OF AIR SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOISTURE
DIMINISHES STEADILY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING TO AS LITTLE AS 1.65 INCHES.
MOISTURE GRADUALLY IMPROVES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
SERIES OF RIPPLES IN THE FLOW OUT OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CREATING
MORE SHOWERS IN THE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT UNTIL 20/16Z...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TNCM...AND TKPK BRIEFLY WITH VCSH LIKELY FOR
THOSE TERMINALS. AFTER 20/16Z...SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PR WILL CAUSE MTN OBSCURATIONS AND AFFECT TJMZ AND
TJBQ. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT ABOUT 5-10 KTS
INCREASING SLIGHTLY AFTER 20/12Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. TOPS
LATE THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN OBSERVED UP TO 46 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...WITH TRADE WINDS MODERATE AT BEST AND NO STRONG STORMS
IN THE ATLANTIC EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED AS THE
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OTHERWISE EXPOSED WATERS SHOULD SEE
NO MORE THAN 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
MONA PASSAGE MOVES FURTHER WEST...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...AS TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE CONTINUES
TO MOVE FURTHER WEST....WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE
EVENING WILL PERSIST MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA AND W PR.

MEANDERING TUTT LOW ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH SOME OF THEM REACHING
USVI AND E PR LATE THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS USVI AND E PR IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
OF THESE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AS
TUTT AXIS MOVES WEST OF PR.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 48
WEST WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD...AND APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES
SUNDAY. IT IS TO THEN FORECAST TO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PR UNTIL AROUND 19/23Z...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE FOR ISLAND AND TJSJ TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS E TO SE OF 10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL
BELOW FL150...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 30 KT NEAR TSRA.

MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY 5 FEET OR LESS WITH
WINDS GENERALLY UP TO 17 KNOTS TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  79  88 /  40  40  30  30
STT  78  89  78  89 /  50  50  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 200052 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
852 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...THE GFS MODEL AND THE MIMIC PRODUCT BOTH INDICATE A WEAK
WAVE OR TROUGH MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO FROM THE EAST AFTER
20/06Z THAT IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS IS
SHOWING UP AS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS FOR NOW...BUT THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND ENTER INTO EASTERN
PUERTO RICO. THE MODEL ALSO DEPICTS A SECOND TROUGH OR WAVE
ENTERING ALMOST THE SAME TIME EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN BOTH CASES
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER...MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE TUTT LOW THAT HAD ACTED AS A
FOCAL POINT FOR ACTIVITY YESTERDAY IS NOW ALMOST COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED AND WILL PLAY ONLY A VERY MINOR ROLE IN THE CONVECTION
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THERE WILL BE A VERY WEAK EAST-WEST
RIDGE OVER THE AREA AT UPPER LEVELS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND IN ELIMINATING
A TROPICAL WAVE TO CROSS ON MONDAY IN FAVOR OF SEVERAL SMALL WAVES
CROSSING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FLOW
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AT 700 MB APPEARS TO FLATTEN
OUT...LEAVING ONLY GOOD MOISTURE IN ITS PLACE. THE GFS NOW SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER REACHING A WEAK PEAK ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A
MAXIMUM OVER 2 INCHES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INTERVENING
DRIER SLOT OF AIR SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOISTURE
DIMINISHES STEADILY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING TO AS LITTLE AS 1.65 INCHES.
MOISTURE GRADUALLY IMPROVES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
SERIES OF RIPPLES IN THE FLOW OUT OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CREATING
MORE SHOWERS IN THE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT UNTIL 20/16Z...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TNCM...AND TKPK BRIEFLY WITH VCSH LIKELY FOR
THOSE TERMINALS. AFTER 20/16Z...SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PR WILL CAUSE MTN OBSCURATIONS AND AFFECT TJMZ AND
TJBQ. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT ABOUT 5-10 KTS
INCREASING SLIGHTLY AFTER 20/12Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. TOPS
LATE THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN OBSERVED UP TO 46 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...WITH TRADE WINDS MODERATE AT BEST AND NO STRONG STORMS
IN THE ATLANTIC EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED AS THE
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OTHERWISE EXPOSED WATERS SHOULD SEE
NO MORE THAN 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
MONA PASSAGE MOVES FURTHER WEST...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...AS TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE CONTINUES
TO MOVE FURTHER WEST....WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE
EVENING WILL PERSIST MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA AND W PR.

MEANDERING TUTT LOW ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH SOME OF THEM REACHING
USVI AND E PR LATE THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS USVI AND E PR IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
OF THESE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AS
TUTT AXIS MOVES WEST OF PR.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 48
WEST WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD...AND APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES
SUNDAY. IT IS TO THEN FORECAST TO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PR UNTIL AROUND 19/23Z...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE FOR ISLAND AND TJSJ TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS E TO SE OF 10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL
BELOW FL150...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 30 KT NEAR TSRA.

MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY 5 FEET OR LESS WITH
WINDS GENERALLY UP TO 17 KNOTS TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  79  88 /  40  40  30  30
STT  78  89  78  89 /  50  50  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 191842
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
242 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
MONA PASSAGE MOVES FURTHER WEST...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE CONTINUES
TO MOVE FURTHER WEST....WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE
EVENING WILL PERSIST MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA AND W PR.

MEANDERING TUTT LOW ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH SOME OF THEM REACHING
USVI AND E PR LATE THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS USVI AND E PR IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
OF THESE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AS
TUTT AXIS MOVES WEST OF PR.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 48
WEST WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD...AND APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES
SUNDAY. IT IS TO THEN FORECAST TO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PR UNTIL AROUND 19/23Z...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE FOR ISLAND AND TJSJ TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS E TO SE OF 10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL
BELOW FL150...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 30 KT NEAR TSRA.


&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY 5 FEET OR LESS WITH
WINDS GENERALLY UP TO 17 KNOTS TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  79  88 /  40  40  30  30
STT  78  89  78  89 /  50  50  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/23





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 191842
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
242 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
MONA PASSAGE MOVES FURTHER WEST...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE CONTINUES
TO MOVE FURTHER WEST....WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE
EVENING WILL PERSIST MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA AND W PR.

MEANDERING TUTT LOW ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH SOME OF THEM REACHING
USVI AND E PR LATE THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS USVI AND E PR IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
OF THESE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AS
TUTT AXIS MOVES WEST OF PR.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 48
WEST WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD...AND APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES
SUNDAY. IT IS TO THEN FORECAST TO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PR UNTIL AROUND 19/23Z...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE FOR ISLAND AND TJSJ TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS E TO SE OF 10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL
BELOW FL150...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 30 KT NEAR TSRA.


&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY 5 FEET OR LESS WITH
WINDS GENERALLY UP TO 17 KNOTS TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  79  88 /  40  40  30  30
STT  78  89  78  89 /  50  50  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 191458 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1058 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT AFFECTED THE EASTERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO EARLIER THIS MORNING DISSIPATED AND MOVED AWAY BY
9 AM AST...LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW
HEATING OF THE GROUND...AND IN COMBINATION WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE... WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL PR MOVING TO THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED FLOODING...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING COULD
BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST NOON TODAY. NEW SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR AFTER 19/17Z.
THEREFORE...MVFR/IFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION CAN BE EXPECTED
IN MOST OF PR TERMINALS. ISLANDS TERMINALS COULD EXPERIENCE -SHRA FROM
TIME TO TIME. WINDS E TO SE OF 10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL BELOW FL150...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 30 KT NEAR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY 5 FEET OR LESS WITH
WINDS GENERALLY UP TO 18 KNOTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
NOW ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE WESTWARDS
AROUND 15 MPH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN ELONGATED TUTT LOW JUST NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO EXTENDS SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THIS IS ALLOWING FOR GOOD VENTILATION AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ABUNDANT
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE
UPPER LOW AND PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN FAIRLY LOOSE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE...WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SUGGESTING A TONGUE OF HIGH PWAT
VALUES NEAR 2.5 INCHES NOW CROSSING THE REGION. THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS...
WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AS A RESULT EXPECTED ACTIVE AND VERY
UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL... AND HIGH POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY
LATE SATURDAY AND THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY...EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT
IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

HOWEVER...BASED ON THE LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE...ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW NEAR 46 WEST WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD...AND APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE SATURDAY. IT IS TO
THEN FORECAST TO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE SUNDAY
OR MONDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GOOD TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION.

AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA TODAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION. SHRA/ISOLD
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL MOVE IN AND AROUND TJSJ AND TIST
AND TISX THIS MORNING. NEW SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFT
OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THEREFORE...MVFR/IFR CONDS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA IN MOST OF PR TERMINALS.
E TO SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL BELOW FL150...WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AROUND 30 KT NEAR TSRA.

MARINE...OVERALL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY 5 FEET
OR LESS WITH WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 18 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING
PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  78  88  79 /  70  10  20  20
STT  88  79  89  80 /  70  10  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 191458 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1058 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT AFFECTED THE EASTERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO EARLIER THIS MORNING DISSIPATED AND MOVED AWAY BY
9 AM AST...LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW
HEATING OF THE GROUND...AND IN COMBINATION WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE... WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL PR MOVING TO THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED FLOODING...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING COULD
BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST NOON TODAY. NEW SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR AFTER 19/17Z.
THEREFORE...MVFR/IFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION CAN BE EXPECTED
IN MOST OF PR TERMINALS. ISLANDS TERMINALS COULD EXPERIENCE -SHRA FROM
TIME TO TIME. WINDS E TO SE OF 10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL BELOW FL150...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 30 KT NEAR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY 5 FEET OR LESS WITH
WINDS GENERALLY UP TO 18 KNOTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
NOW ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE WESTWARDS
AROUND 15 MPH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN ELONGATED TUTT LOW JUST NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO EXTENDS SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THIS IS ALLOWING FOR GOOD VENTILATION AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ABUNDANT
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE
UPPER LOW AND PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN FAIRLY LOOSE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE...WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SUGGESTING A TONGUE OF HIGH PWAT
VALUES NEAR 2.5 INCHES NOW CROSSING THE REGION. THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS...
WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AS A RESULT EXPECTED ACTIVE AND VERY
UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL... AND HIGH POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY
LATE SATURDAY AND THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY...EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT
IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

HOWEVER...BASED ON THE LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE...ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW NEAR 46 WEST WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD...AND APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE SATURDAY. IT IS TO
THEN FORECAST TO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE SUNDAY
OR MONDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GOOD TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION.

AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA TODAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION. SHRA/ISOLD
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL MOVE IN AND AROUND TJSJ AND TIST
AND TISX THIS MORNING. NEW SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFT
OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THEREFORE...MVFR/IFR CONDS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA IN MOST OF PR TERMINALS.
E TO SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL BELOW FL150...WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AROUND 30 KT NEAR TSRA.

MARINE...OVERALL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY 5 FEET
OR LESS WITH WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 18 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING
PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  78  88  79 /  70  10  20  20
STT  88  79  89  80 /  70  10  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/23





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