[top]
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 260828
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
428 AM AST SUN MAY 26 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA. THEN RIPPLES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEK.
THIS HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA NEXT WEEK WITH A
MORE NORTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING NEXT WEEKEND OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
AT MID LEVELS...TROUGHING WILL SLOWLY FADE TODAY AND TOMORROW AS
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND LOW PRESSURE RETREATS
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NORTH
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
TONIGHT AND THEN MOVES NORTH WHILE STRENGTHENING. LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN THIS WEEK AND DEEPENS NEAR
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK. EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST
TRADE WIND FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL WAS SEEN OVERNIGHT AND
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ENTERED PUERTO RICO IN THE EASTERLY FLOW.
NEVERTHELESS SAINT CROIX DID HAVE SOME PASSING SHOWERS THAT LEFT
AROUND ONE TENTH INCH. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS LESS OVER THE
SURROUNDING WATERS UPSTREAM FROM THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE SOUNDERS HAS HELD STEADY NEAR 2 INCHES. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA AND MOISTURE
LITTLE CHANGED IT WAS DECIDED TO TAKE DOWN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
SINCE VERY LITTLE HAS HAPPENED OVER PUERTO RICO OR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS DURING THE LAST 48 HOURS. SHOWERS WILL FORM OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY AND SOME AMOUNTS IN LOCALIZED AREAS WILL BE
HEAVY...MAINLY IN THE WEST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS...BUT WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE
WORK WEEK WITH THE BEST MOISTURE AND CONVECTION NOW INDICATED FOR
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE REMNANTS OF A RELATIVELY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY OVER
FORECASTING MOISTURE SO HAVE DISCOUNTED HIGHER PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OVER ALL EXCEPT WESTERN PUERTO RICO WHERE THE MODEL CANNOT
RESOLVE THE LOCAL CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS THE CURRENT PATTERN IS
ABNORMALLY WET AND WILL REMAIN SO FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
IN THE LONG RANGE...THE GFS HAS SHOWN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DEVELOPING NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN TIP OF CUBA EARLY NEXT WEEK...IN THE FIRST PART OF JUNE. THIS
MAY SERVE TO MAKE LOW LEVEL FLOW SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN
THE LOCAL AREA. NORMALLY THIS WOULD SERVE TO INCREASE MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA...BUT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS DEPICTED TO OUR
SOUTHEAST BY NEXT WEEK...INTERRUPTED ONLY BY A PASSING TROPICAL
WAVE MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...ALTHOUGH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS TAKEN DOWN FOR ALL
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...SUFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE CULEBRINAS RIVER BASIN TO SEND IT
NEAR OR OVER FLOOD STAGE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. FLOODING THAT
OCCURS WILL BE MINOR. OTHERWISE SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PROVOKE
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING TODAY AND TOMORROW AT LEAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...PASSING SHRA/VCSH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TKPK AND TNCM. AFTER 26/16Z BRIEF MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ARND 26/22Z...AFFECTING
MAINLY TJMZ AND TJBQ. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 10 TO 20 KTS FROM THE SFC UP TO 5
KFT.
&&
.MARINE...EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS HAVE ABATED SLIGHTLY BUT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEK. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 4 TO
6 FEET IN ALL EXPOSED AREAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 77 86 77 / 60 50 60 70
STT 86 77 86 77 / 60 40 60 50
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
13/12
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 260828
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
428 AM AST SUN MAY 26 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA. THEN RIPPLES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEK.
THIS HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA NEXT WEEK WITH A
MORE NORTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING NEXT WEEKEND OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
AT MID LEVELS...TROUGHING WILL SLOWLY FADE TODAY AND TOMORROW AS
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND LOW PRESSURE RETREATS
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NORTH
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
TONIGHT AND THEN MOVES NORTH WHILE STRENGTHENING. LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN THIS WEEK AND DEEPENS NEAR
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK. EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST
TRADE WIND FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL WAS SEEN OVERNIGHT AND
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ENTERED PUERTO RICO IN THE EASTERLY FLOW.
NEVERTHELESS SAINT CROIX DID HAVE SOME PASSING SHOWERS THAT LEFT
AROUND ONE TENTH INCH. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS LESS OVER THE
SURROUNDING WATERS UPSTREAM FROM THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE SOUNDERS HAS HELD STEADY NEAR 2 INCHES. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA AND MOISTURE
LITTLE CHANGED IT WAS DECIDED TO TAKE DOWN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
SINCE VERY LITTLE HAS HAPPENED OVER PUERTO RICO OR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS DURING THE LAST 48 HOURS. SHOWERS WILL FORM OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY AND SOME AMOUNTS IN LOCALIZED AREAS WILL BE
HEAVY...MAINLY IN THE WEST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS...BUT WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE
WORK WEEK WITH THE BEST MOISTURE AND CONVECTION NOW INDICATED FOR
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE REMNANTS OF A RELATIVELY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY OVER
FORECASTING MOISTURE SO HAVE DISCOUNTED HIGHER PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OVER ALL EXCEPT WESTERN PUERTO RICO WHERE THE MODEL CANNOT
RESOLVE THE LOCAL CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS THE CURRENT PATTERN IS
ABNORMALLY WET AND WILL REMAIN SO FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
IN THE LONG RANGE...THE GFS HAS SHOWN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DEVELOPING NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN TIP OF CUBA EARLY NEXT WEEK...IN THE FIRST PART OF JUNE. THIS
MAY SERVE TO MAKE LOW LEVEL FLOW SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN
THE LOCAL AREA. NORMALLY THIS WOULD SERVE TO INCREASE MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA...BUT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS DEPICTED TO OUR
SOUTHEAST BY NEXT WEEK...INTERRUPTED ONLY BY A PASSING TROPICAL
WAVE MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...ALTHOUGH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS TAKEN DOWN FOR ALL
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...SUFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE CULEBRINAS RIVER BASIN TO SEND IT
NEAR OR OVER FLOOD STAGE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. FLOODING THAT
OCCURS WILL BE MINOR. OTHERWISE SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PROVOKE
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING TODAY AND TOMORROW AT LEAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...PASSING SHRA/VCSH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TKPK AND TNCM. AFTER 26/16Z BRIEF MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ARND 26/22Z...AFFECTING
MAINLY TJMZ AND TJBQ. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 10 TO 20 KTS FROM THE SFC UP TO 5
KFT.
&&
.MARINE...EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS HAVE ABATED SLIGHTLY BUT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEK. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 4 TO
6 FEET IN ALL EXPOSED AREAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 77 86 77 / 60 50 60 70
STT 86 77 86 77 / 60 40 60 50
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
13/12
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 260233
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1033 PM AST SAT MAY 25 2013
.UPDATE...POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AS DEEP MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO MATCH CURRENT WX CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...PASSING SHRA EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MAINLY
OVR COASTAL WATERS AND BTW ERN PR AND THE NRN LEEWARDS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN VCSH FOR TIST...TISX...AS WELL AS TNCM AND TKPK. L/LVL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FM E-SE 10-15 KNOTS BLO FL100 AND INCR W/HT
BCMG FM W.
&&
.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM AST SAT MAY 25 2013/
SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH INTERACTING WITH AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE
AND TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE CURRENTLY OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS OVER THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. THE 25/12Z SOUNDING INDICATED UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH A
LIFTED INDEX OF -6.4 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.13 INCHES.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. DUE TO LOOSE AND SATURATED SOILS...ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
WILL CAUSE FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS AS WELL AS RAPID RIVER RISES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE THAT MOIST AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR
TEMPO MVFR CONDS VCTY TJMZ AND POSSIBLY TJBQ TIL 25/22Z DUE TO AFTN
CONVECTION AND LOW SCUD CLDS WITH VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THE SHRA/ISOLD TSRA. WX CONDS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 25/23Z.
THEREAFTER...PASSING SHRA EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVR COASTAL
WATERS AND BTW ERN PR AND THE NRN LEEWARDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN VCSH
FOR TJSJ...TIST...TISX...AS WELL AS TNCM AND TKPK. L/LVL WINDS WILL
FM E-SE 10-15 KNOTS BLO FL100 AND INCR W/HT BCMG FM W WITH MAX WND
AROUND 45 KTS NR FL400.
MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AND SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST EXPOSED WATERS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 78 85 / 70 70 60 60
STT 77 86 79 87 / 70 70 70 70
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-
CULEBRA-EASTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH
CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND
VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.
VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ST CROIX-ST.
THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.
COASTAL WATERS...
&&
$$
72/23
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 260233
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1033 PM AST SAT MAY 25 2013
.UPDATE...POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AS DEEP MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO MATCH CURRENT WX CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...PASSING SHRA EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MAINLY
OVR COASTAL WATERS AND BTW ERN PR AND THE NRN LEEWARDS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN VCSH FOR TIST...TISX...AS WELL AS TNCM AND TKPK. L/LVL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FM E-SE 10-15 KNOTS BLO FL100 AND INCR W/HT
BCMG FM W.
&&
.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM AST SAT MAY 25 2013/
SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH INTERACTING WITH AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE
AND TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE CURRENTLY OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS OVER THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. THE 25/12Z SOUNDING INDICATED UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH A
LIFTED INDEX OF -6.4 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.13 INCHES.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. DUE TO LOOSE AND SATURATED SOILS...ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
WILL CAUSE FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS AS WELL AS RAPID RIVER RISES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE THAT MOIST AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR
TEMPO MVFR CONDS VCTY TJMZ AND POSSIBLY TJBQ TIL 25/22Z DUE TO AFTN
CONVECTION AND LOW SCUD CLDS WITH VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THE SHRA/ISOLD TSRA. WX CONDS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 25/23Z.
THEREAFTER...PASSING SHRA EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVR COASTAL
WATERS AND BTW ERN PR AND THE NRN LEEWARDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN VCSH
FOR TJSJ...TIST...TISX...AS WELL AS TNCM AND TKPK. L/LVL WINDS WILL
FM E-SE 10-15 KNOTS BLO FL100 AND INCR W/HT BCMG FM W WITH MAX WND
AROUND 45 KTS NR FL400.
MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AND SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST EXPOSED WATERS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 78 85 / 70 70 60 60
STT 77 86 79 87 / 70 70 70 70
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-
CULEBRA-EASTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH
CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND
VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.
VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ST CROIX-ST.
THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.
COASTAL WATERS...
&&
$$
72/23
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 251912
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH INTERACTING WITH AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE
AND TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE CURRENTLY OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS OVER THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. THE 25/12Z SOUNDING INDICATED UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH A
LIFTED INDEX OF -6.4 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.13 INCHES.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. DUE TO LOOSE AND SATURATED SOILS...ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
WILL CAUSE FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS AS WELL AS RAPID RIVER RISES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE THAT MOIST AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR
TEMPO MVFR CONDS VCTY TJMZ AND POSSIBLY TJBQ TIL 25/22Z DUE TO AFTN
CONVECTION AND LOW SCUD CLDS WITH VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THE SHRA/ISOLD TSRA. WX CONDS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 25/23Z.
THEREAFTER...PASSING SHRA EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVR COASTAL
WATERS AND BTW ERN PR AND THE NRN LEEWARDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN VCSH
FOR TJSJ...TIST...TISX...AS WELL AS TNCM AND TKPK. L/LVL WINDS WILL
FM E-SE 10-15 KNOTS BLO FL100 AND INCR W/HT BCMG FM W WITH MAX WND
AROUND 45 KTS NR FL400.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AND SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST EXPOSED WATERS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 78 85 / 70 70 60 60
STT 77 86 79 87 / 70 70 70 70
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-
CULEBRA-EASTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH
CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND
VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.
VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ST CROIX-ST.
THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.
COASTAL WATERS...
&&
$$
09/25
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 251912
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH INTERACTING WITH AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE
AND TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE CURRENTLY OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS OVER THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. THE 25/12Z SOUNDING INDICATED UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH A
LIFTED INDEX OF -6.4 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.13 INCHES.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. DUE TO LOOSE AND SATURATED SOILS...ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
WILL CAUSE FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS AS WELL AS RAPID RIVER RISES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE THAT MOIST AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR
TEMPO MVFR CONDS VCTY TJMZ AND POSSIBLY TJBQ TIL 25/22Z DUE TO AFTN
CONVECTION AND LOW SCUD CLDS WITH VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THE SHRA/ISOLD TSRA. WX CONDS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 25/23Z.
THEREAFTER...PASSING SHRA EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVR COASTAL
WATERS AND BTW ERN PR AND THE NRN LEEWARDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN VCSH
FOR TJSJ...TIST...TISX...AS WELL AS TNCM AND TKPK. L/LVL WINDS WILL
FM E-SE 10-15 KNOTS BLO FL100 AND INCR W/HT BCMG FM W WITH MAX WND
AROUND 45 KTS NR FL400.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AND SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST EXPOSED WATERS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 78 85 / 70 70 60 60
STT 77 86 79 87 / 70 70 70 70
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-
CULEBRA-EASTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH
CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND
VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.
VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ST CROIX-ST.
THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.
COASTAL WATERS...
&&
$$
09/25
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 251529
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1129 AM AST SAT MAY 25 2013
.UPDATE...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC AND
FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION AND
THUS MAINTAIN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST TJSJ
25/12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING AS WELL AS THAT OF TFFR IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE REGION IN EXCESS OF
TWO INCHES. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WITH BASE OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MEANDER
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES TO PROPAGATE THROUGH BASE
OF THE TROUGH AND THUS MAINTAIN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
AND THIS AT TIMES MAY DELAY THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IN SOME AREAS. HOWEVER....STILL EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER
FOR TODAY WITH PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AS WELL AS
OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN STILL HOWEVER BE EXPECTED AT
TIMES AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECT TO CONTINUOUS. SOIL REMAIN
SATURATED AND LOOSE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLANDS AND ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOW ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF STEEP TERRAIN. RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS WILL ALSO QUICKLY REACT
WITH ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. FOR THIS REASON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT AND WILL MOST LIKELY BE EXTENDED LATER TODAY
AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA...AND THIS MAY
RESULT IN FLOODING PROBLEMS. SO STAY TUNED AND REMAIN ALERT DURING
THE REST OF THE LONG WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION UPDATE...MULTIPLE SCT-BKN LOW TO MID LEVEL CLD LYRS BTW
FL020-FL120 WITH TCU/CB BUILDUPS NOW MAINLY BTW ERN PR AND THE
NRN LEEWARDS ISLANDS. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED DEEPEST CONVECTION
SE OF PR AND JUST S OF STX WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED
RA/SHRA AND ISOLD TSTMS. AREAS OF ISOLD CONVECTION HOWEVER CIRCUMNAVIGABLE
AT THIS TIME WITH MAX ECHO TOPS OF 35KFT SOME 5O MILES S OF STX AROUND
25/1530Z. L/LVL WNDS GENERALLY FM THE SE 10-20 KTS BCMG FM W AND INCR
W/HT ABV TO MAX WND OF 45-50KTS NR FL400. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE UPDATE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HOWEVER
DUE TO THE UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS...THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM AST SAT MAY 25 2013/
SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH
WILL LEAVE LOW PRESSURE NEAR FLORIDA EARLY MID WEEK THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE LOCAL
AREA TONIGHT...OTHERWISE A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE
NORTH AND LEAVE THE MID LATITUDES LOCKED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FROM
A STRONG NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH AND A WEAKER WESTERN ATLANTIC
HIGH CENTER. THESE HIGHS WILL KEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...SHOWERS PERSISTED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. OVER ONE HALF INCH
FELL AT THE AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS VERY
LOCALIZED ELSEWHERE AND JUST OFFSHORE. THE GFS MODEL SOLUTION HAS
PROVEN TO BE ERRATIC LATELY BUT AGAIN SHOWS MOISTURE INCREASING DURING
THE DAY WITH STABILITY DECREASING CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. LIFTED INDICES FALL BELOW MINUS SIX BETWEEN 25/12Z AND
26/00Z. A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND A MUCH LARGER AND
DEEPER LONG WAVE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PASS THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL AID IN THIS
DESTABILIZATION. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT MORE FAVORABLE TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASED RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAINLAND
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE ISLANDS TO THE EAST
POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST
AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT NOT EXTEND IT BEYOND 6 PM AST UNTIL IT IS
KNOWN HOW WELL THE GFS IS DEPICTING THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE
LATEST GFS RUN...25/00Z...PAINTS TODAY AS HAVING THE MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE
AND VERTICAL MOTION...HOWEVER GOOD PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...ABOVE 1.8 INCHES...PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK
AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOCAL AREA UNDER MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL DESPITE THE FACT THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MAY BE THE
DOMINANT FORCE AFTER MONDAY SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF TOO
FAR WEST TO PUSH THE HIGH FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS TJBQ...TJMZ AND TJPS UNTIL
AROUND 25/16Z. SHRA/VCTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST...TISX...TNCM...TKPK
AND TJSJ DURING THE FCST PERIOD. AFTER 25/16Z MVFR TO BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS DUE TO
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA...MTN OBSCURATIONS
ISLAND WIDE AND VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE
SHRA/TSRA. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS FROM
SFC UP TO 2 KFT.
MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AND SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST EXPOSED WATERS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
HYDROLOGY...CURRENTLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS EAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST BUT...WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...SEA BREEZE FORMATION
HAS BEEN WEAK. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS CLOSER TO 850 MB AND ALSO MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY TO BE THE STEERING FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION AND
HENCE THE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SOME RIVERS IN THE NORTHWEST INCLUDING THE CULEBRINAS AND ALSO
POSSIBLY THE HORMIGUEROS FARTHER SOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE RAPID
RISES. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THEY WILL NOT FLOOD...BUT
OTHER SMALL STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY FLOOD WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
PERSIST FOR MORE THAN TWO OR THREE HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 87 77 / 70 70 70 60
STT 85 77 86 78 / 60 70 70 70
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-
NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN
JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN
INTERIOR.
VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ST CROIX-ST.
THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.
COASTAL WATERS...
&&
$$
09/25
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 251529
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1129 AM AST SAT MAY 25 2013
.UPDATE...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC AND
FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION AND
THUS MAINTAIN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST TJSJ
25/12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING AS WELL AS THAT OF TFFR IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE REGION IN EXCESS OF
TWO INCHES. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WITH BASE OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MEANDER
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES TO PROPAGATE THROUGH BASE
OF THE TROUGH AND THUS MAINTAIN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
AND THIS AT TIMES MAY DELAY THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IN SOME AREAS. HOWEVER....STILL EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER
FOR TODAY WITH PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AS WELL AS
OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN STILL HOWEVER BE EXPECTED AT
TIMES AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECT TO CONTINUOUS. SOIL REMAIN
SATURATED AND LOOSE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLANDS AND ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOW ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF STEEP TERRAIN. RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS WILL ALSO QUICKLY REACT
WITH ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. FOR THIS REASON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT AND WILL MOST LIKELY BE EXTENDED LATER TODAY
AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA...AND THIS MAY
RESULT IN FLOODING PROBLEMS. SO STAY TUNED AND REMAIN ALERT DURING
THE REST OF THE LONG WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION UPDATE...MULTIPLE SCT-BKN LOW TO MID LEVEL CLD LYRS BTW
FL020-FL120 WITH TCU/CB BUILDUPS NOW MAINLY BTW ERN PR AND THE
NRN LEEWARDS ISLANDS. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED DEEPEST CONVECTION
SE OF PR AND JUST S OF STX WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED
RA/SHRA AND ISOLD TSTMS. AREAS OF ISOLD CONVECTION HOWEVER CIRCUMNAVIGABLE
AT THIS TIME WITH MAX ECHO TOPS OF 35KFT SOME 5O MILES S OF STX AROUND
25/1530Z. L/LVL WNDS GENERALLY FM THE SE 10-20 KTS BCMG FM W AND INCR
W/HT ABV TO MAX WND OF 45-50KTS NR FL400. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE UPDATE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HOWEVER
DUE TO THE UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS...THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM AST SAT MAY 25 2013/
SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH
WILL LEAVE LOW PRESSURE NEAR FLORIDA EARLY MID WEEK THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE LOCAL
AREA TONIGHT...OTHERWISE A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE
NORTH AND LEAVE THE MID LATITUDES LOCKED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FROM
A STRONG NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH AND A WEAKER WESTERN ATLANTIC
HIGH CENTER. THESE HIGHS WILL KEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...SHOWERS PERSISTED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. OVER ONE HALF INCH
FELL AT THE AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS VERY
LOCALIZED ELSEWHERE AND JUST OFFSHORE. THE GFS MODEL SOLUTION HAS
PROVEN TO BE ERRATIC LATELY BUT AGAIN SHOWS MOISTURE INCREASING DURING
THE DAY WITH STABILITY DECREASING CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. LIFTED INDICES FALL BELOW MINUS SIX BETWEEN 25/12Z AND
26/00Z. A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND A MUCH LARGER AND
DEEPER LONG WAVE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PASS THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL AID IN THIS
DESTABILIZATION. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT MORE FAVORABLE TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASED RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAINLAND
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE ISLANDS TO THE EAST
POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST
AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT NOT EXTEND IT BEYOND 6 PM AST UNTIL IT IS
KNOWN HOW WELL THE GFS IS DEPICTING THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE
LATEST GFS RUN...25/00Z...PAINTS TODAY AS HAVING THE MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE
AND VERTICAL MOTION...HOWEVER GOOD PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...ABOVE 1.8 INCHES...PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK
AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOCAL AREA UNDER MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL DESPITE THE FACT THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MAY BE THE
DOMINANT FORCE AFTER MONDAY SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF TOO
FAR WEST TO PUSH THE HIGH FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS TJBQ...TJMZ AND TJPS UNTIL
AROUND 25/16Z. SHRA/VCTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST...TISX...TNCM...TKPK
AND TJSJ DURING THE FCST PERIOD. AFTER 25/16Z MVFR TO BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS DUE TO
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA...MTN OBSCURATIONS
ISLAND WIDE AND VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE
SHRA/TSRA. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS FROM
SFC UP TO 2 KFT.
MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AND SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST EXPOSED WATERS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
HYDROLOGY...CURRENTLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS EAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST BUT...WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...SEA BREEZE FORMATION
HAS BEEN WEAK. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS CLOSER TO 850 MB AND ALSO MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY TO BE THE STEERING FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION AND
HENCE THE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SOME RIVERS IN THE NORTHWEST INCLUDING THE CULEBRINAS AND ALSO
POSSIBLY THE HORMIGUEROS FARTHER SOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE RAPID
RISES. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THEY WILL NOT FLOOD...BUT
OTHER SMALL STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY FLOOD WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
PERSIST FOR MORE THAN TWO OR THREE HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 87 77 / 70 70 70 60
STT 85 77 86 78 / 60 70 70 70
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-
NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN
JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN
INTERIOR.
VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ST CROIX-ST.
THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.
COASTAL WATERS...
&&
$$
09/25
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250916
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH
WILL LEAVE LOW PRESSURE NEAR FLORIDA EARLY MID WEEK THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE LOCAL
AREA TONIGHT...OTHERWISE A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE
NORTH AND LEAVE THE MID LATITUDES LOCKED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FROM
A STRONG NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH AND A WEAKER WESTERN ATLANTIC
HIGH CENTER. THESE HIGHS WILL KEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS PERSISTED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. OVER ONE HALF INCH
FELL AT THE AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS VERY
LOCALIZED ELSEWHERE AND JUST OFFSHORE. THE GFS MODEL SOLUTION HAS
PROVEN TO BE ERRATIC LATELY BUT AGAIN SHOWS MOISTURE INCREASING DURING
THE DAY WITH STABILITY DECREASING CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. LIFTED INDICES FALL BELOW MINUS SIX BETWEEN 25/12Z AND
26/00Z. A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND A MUCH LARGER AND
DEEPER LONG WAVE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PASS THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL AID IN THIS
DESTABILIZATION. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT MORE FAVORABLE TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASED RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAINLAND
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE ISLANDS TO THE EAST
POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST
AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT NOT EXTEND IT BEYOND 6 PM AST UNTIL IT IS
KNOWN HOW WELL THE GFS IS DEPICTING THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE
LATEST GFS RUN...25/00Z...PAINTS TODAY AS HAVING THE MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE
AND VERTICAL MOTION...HOWEVER GOOD PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...ABOVE 1.8 INCHES...PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK
AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOCAL AREA UNDER MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL DESPITE THE FACT THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MAY BE THE
DOMINANT FORCE AFTER MONDAY SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF TOO
FAR WEST TO PUSH THE HIGH FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS TJBQ...TJMZ AND TJPS UNTIL
AROUND 25/16Z. SHRA/VCTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST...TISX...TNCM...TKPK
AND TJSJ DURING THE FCST PERIOD. AFTER 25/16Z MVFR TO BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS DUE TO
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA...MTN OBSCURATIONS
ISLAND WIDE AND VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE
SHRA/TSRA. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS FROM
SFC UP TO 2 KFT.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AND SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST EXPOSED WATERS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...CURRENTLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS EAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST BUT...WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...SEA BREEZE FORMATION
HAS BEEN WEAK. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS CLOSER TO 850 MB AND ALSO MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY TO BE THE STEERING FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION AND
HENCE THE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SOME RIVERS IN THE NORTHWEST INCLUDING THE CULEBRINAS AND ALSO
POSSIBLY THE HORMIGUEROS FARTHER SOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE RAPID
RISES. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THEY WILL NOT FLOOD...BUT
OTHER SMALL STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY FLOOD WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
PERSIST FOR MORE THAN TWO OR THREE HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 87 77 / 70 70 70 60
STT 85 77 86 78 / 60 70 70 70
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-
CULEBRA-EASTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH
CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND
VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.
VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ST CROIX-ST.
THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
13/12
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250916
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH
WILL LEAVE LOW PRESSURE NEAR FLORIDA EARLY MID WEEK THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE LOCAL
AREA TONIGHT...OTHERWISE A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE
NORTH AND LEAVE THE MID LATITUDES LOCKED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FROM
A STRONG NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH AND A WEAKER WESTERN ATLANTIC
HIGH CENTER. THESE HIGHS WILL KEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS PERSISTED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. OVER ONE HALF INCH
FELL AT THE AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS VERY
LOCALIZED ELSEWHERE AND JUST OFFSHORE. THE GFS MODEL SOLUTION HAS
PROVEN TO BE ERRATIC LATELY BUT AGAIN SHOWS MOISTURE INCREASING DURING
THE DAY WITH STABILITY DECREASING CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. LIFTED INDICES FALL BELOW MINUS SIX BETWEEN 25/12Z AND
26/00Z. A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND A MUCH LARGER AND
DEEPER LONG WAVE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PASS THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL AID IN THIS
DESTABILIZATION. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT MORE FAVORABLE TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASED RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAINLAND
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE ISLANDS TO THE EAST
POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST
AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT NOT EXTEND IT BEYOND 6 PM AST UNTIL IT IS
KNOWN HOW WELL THE GFS IS DEPICTING THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE
LATEST GFS RUN...25/00Z...PAINTS TODAY AS HAVING THE MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE
AND VERTICAL MOTION...HOWEVER GOOD PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...ABOVE 1.8 INCHES...PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK
AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOCAL AREA UNDER MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL DESPITE THE FACT THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MAY BE THE
DOMINANT FORCE AFTER MONDAY SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF TOO
FAR WEST TO PUSH THE HIGH FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS TJBQ...TJMZ AND TJPS UNTIL
AROUND 25/16Z. SHRA/VCTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST...TISX...TNCM...TKPK
AND TJSJ DURING THE FCST PERIOD. AFTER 25/16Z MVFR TO BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS DUE TO
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA...MTN OBSCURATIONS
ISLAND WIDE AND VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE
SHRA/TSRA. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS FROM
SFC UP TO 2 KFT.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AND SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST EXPOSED WATERS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...CURRENTLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS EAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST BUT...WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...SEA BREEZE FORMATION
HAS BEEN WEAK. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS CLOSER TO 850 MB AND ALSO MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY TO BE THE STEERING FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION AND
HENCE THE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SOME RIVERS IN THE NORTHWEST INCLUDING THE CULEBRINAS AND ALSO
POSSIBLY THE HORMIGUEROS FARTHER SOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE RAPID
RISES. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THEY WILL NOT FLOOD...BUT
OTHER SMALL STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY FLOOD WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
PERSIST FOR MORE THAN TWO OR THREE HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 87 77 / 70 70 70 60
STT 85 77 86 78 / 60 70 70 70
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-
CULEBRA-EASTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH
CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND
VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.
VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ST CROIX-ST.
THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
13/12
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250156
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
956 PM AST FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SAINT CROIX AND
NORTHWEST COAST OF PR. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AFTER 25/06Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...USVI AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO. MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER
SURGING OVERNIGHT...REACHING A MAXIMUM OF 2.1 INCHES BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OVERALL...EXPECT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AND
BECOME MORE ACTIVE TOMORROW AND SUNDAY UNDER INFLUENCE OF AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THEREFORE...A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING. MINOR CHANGES
WERE INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJBQ THROUGH AT LEAST
25/06Z. MEANWHILE...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
TISX...TNCM...AND TKPK THROUGH AT LEAST 25/12Z. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS. CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD
DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM AST FRI MAY 24 2013/
SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO EXIT OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
U.S. LATE TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM
THE EAST WILL INTERACT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...CAUSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
DISCUSSION...DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE LIMITED
TODAY BUT THINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AS THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT DIGS DOWN IN THE
CARIBBEAN AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE CAUSES NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. RIGHT NOW
THIS SHORTWAVE IS CAUSING DECENT CONVECTION ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND WE EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE WEST AND
AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED
UNTIL 6PM SATURDAY WHICH NOW INCLUDES ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ITS PEAK
ON SATURDAY BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS WELL...IN ADDITION...THE SOILS ARE
SATURATED AND ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS WILL CAUSE RUNOFF AND
THEREFORE FLOODING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK AS WELL...ALTHOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS WHAT IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION...CONVECTION SHOULD BUILD OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE USVI AND
NORTHEAST PR TERMINALS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND MVFR/IFR CIGS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS WRN AND NW PR SAT AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED TODAY DUE TO SEAS NOW
BEING UNDER 7 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS MAY STILL BE UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS
WILL BE UP TO 20 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 88 78 87 / 70 70 70 70
STT 77 86 78 87 / 70 70 70 70
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-
NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN
JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN
INTERIOR.
VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM AST SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ST CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.
COASTAL WATERS...
&&
$$
71/11
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250156
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
956 PM AST FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SAINT CROIX AND
NORTHWEST COAST OF PR. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AFTER 25/06Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...USVI AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO. MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER
SURGING OVERNIGHT...REACHING A MAXIMUM OF 2.1 INCHES BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OVERALL...EXPECT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AND
BECOME MORE ACTIVE TOMORROW AND SUNDAY UNDER INFLUENCE OF AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THEREFORE...A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING. MINOR CHANGES
WERE INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJBQ THROUGH AT LEAST
25/06Z. MEANWHILE...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
TISX...TNCM...AND TKPK THROUGH AT LEAST 25/12Z. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS. CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD
DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM AST FRI MAY 24 2013/
SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO EXIT OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
U.S. LATE TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM
THE EAST WILL INTERACT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...CAUSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
DISCUSSION...DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE LIMITED
TODAY BUT THINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AS THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT DIGS DOWN IN THE
CARIBBEAN AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE CAUSES NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. RIGHT NOW
THIS SHORTWAVE IS CAUSING DECENT CONVECTION ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND WE EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE WEST AND
AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED
UNTIL 6PM SATURDAY WHICH NOW INCLUDES ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ITS PEAK
ON SATURDAY BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS WELL...IN ADDITION...THE SOILS ARE
SATURATED AND ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS WILL CAUSE RUNOFF AND
THEREFORE FLOODING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK AS WELL...ALTHOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS WHAT IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION...CONVECTION SHOULD BUILD OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE USVI AND
NORTHEAST PR TERMINALS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND MVFR/IFR CIGS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS WRN AND NW PR SAT AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED TODAY DUE TO SEAS NOW
BEING UNDER 7 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS MAY STILL BE UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS
WILL BE UP TO 20 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 88 78 87 / 70 70 70 70
STT 77 86 78 87 / 70 70 70 70
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-
NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN
JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN
INTERIOR.
VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM AST SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ST CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.
COASTAL WATERS...
&&
$$
71/11
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 241915
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
315 PM AST FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO EXIT OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
U.S. LATE TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM
THE EAST WILL INTERACT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...CAUSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE LIMITED
TODAY BUT THINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AS THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT DIGS DOWN IN THE
CARIBBEAN AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE CAUSES NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. RIGHT NOW
THIS SHORTWAVE IS CAUSING DECENT CONVECTION ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND WE EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE WEST AND
AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED
UNTIL 6PM SATURDAY WHICH NOW INCLUDES ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ITS PEAK
ON SATURDAY BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS WELL...IN ADDITION...THE SOILS ARE
SATURATED AND ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS WILL CAUSE RUNOFF AND
THEREFORE FLOODING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK AS WELL...ALTHOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS WHAT IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...CONVECTION SHOULD BUILD OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE USVI AND
NORTHEAST PR TERMINALS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND MVFR/IFR CIGS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS WRN AND NW PR SAT AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED TODAY DUE TO SEAS NOW
BEING UNDER 7 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS MAY STILL BE UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS
WILL BE UP TO 20 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 88 78 87 / 70 70 70 70
STT 77 86 78 87 / 70 70 70 70
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-
NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN
JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN
INTERIOR.
VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ST CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.
COASTAL WATERS...
&&
$$
64/25
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 241915
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
315 PM AST FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO EXIT OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
U.S. LATE TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM
THE EAST WILL INTERACT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...CAUSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE LIMITED
TODAY BUT THINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AS THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT DIGS DOWN IN THE
CARIBBEAN AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE CAUSES NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. RIGHT NOW
THIS SHORTWAVE IS CAUSING DECENT CONVECTION ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND WE EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE WEST AND
AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED
UNTIL 6PM SATURDAY WHICH NOW INCLUDES ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ITS PEAK
ON SATURDAY BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS WELL...IN ADDITION...THE SOILS ARE
SATURATED AND ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS WILL CAUSE RUNOFF AND
THEREFORE FLOODING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK AS WELL...ALTHOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS WHAT IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...CONVECTION SHOULD BUILD OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE USVI AND
NORTHEAST PR TERMINALS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND MVFR/IFR CIGS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS WRN AND NW PR SAT AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED TODAY DUE TO SEAS NOW
BEING UNDER 7 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS MAY STILL BE UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS
WILL BE UP TO 20 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 88 78 87 / 70 70 70 70
STT 77 86 78 87 / 70 70 70 70
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-
NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN
JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN
INTERIOR.
VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ST CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.
COASTAL WATERS...
&&
$$
64/25
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 241513 AAA
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1113 AM AST FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE
OFF THE U.S EAST COAST LATE TONIGHT. TROUGH PATTERN WILL THEN
PERSIST ACROSS THE WRN ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE-TROUGH OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE IS
SUSTAINING DEEP CONVECTION OVR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. WHILE IT SEEMS
LIKE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BUILD LATE TODAY INTO ERN PR AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY FROM
GETTING OUT OF HAND. HOWEVER...THINGS CHANGE DRAMATICALLY TOMORROW
AS A AREA BECOMES UNDER LEFT EXIT REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAK. OP AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PRETTY AGRESSIVE ON TOMORROW
BEING PRETTY ACTIVE AND MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ON THIS
SINCE AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. SO I GOT PRETTY GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT
TOMORROW WE`LL EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING.
THINGS APPEAR TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY ON SUN BUT MANY STREAMS AND
RIVERS ARE LIKELY TO BE SWOLLEN OR OUT OF THEIR BANKS.
&&
.AVIATION...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EARLY SAT WITH FREQ SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ESPECIALLY NORTH
COAST PR AND USVI TERMINALS. THE LEEWARD TERMINALS ESPECIALLY
SAINT MAARTEN WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE TSTMS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 6 FEET SOON AND SCA WILL
LIKELY BE CANCELLED THIS AFTERNOON. TSTMS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 86 76 / 70 70 70 70
STT 85 76 86 77 / 70 70 70 70
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-
NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN
JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN
INTERIOR.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.
&&
$$
64/64
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 241513 AAA
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1113 AM AST FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE
OFF THE U.S EAST COAST LATE TONIGHT. TROUGH PATTERN WILL THEN
PERSIST ACROSS THE WRN ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE-TROUGH OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE IS
SUSTAINING DEEP CONVECTION OVR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. WHILE IT SEEMS
LIKE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BUILD LATE TODAY INTO ERN PR AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY FROM
GETTING OUT OF HAND. HOWEVER...THINGS CHANGE DRAMATICALLY TOMORROW
AS A AREA BECOMES UNDER LEFT EXIT REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAK. OP AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PRETTY AGRESSIVE ON TOMORROW
BEING PRETTY ACTIVE AND MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ON THIS
SINCE AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. SO I GOT PRETTY GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT
TOMORROW WE`LL EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING.
THINGS APPEAR TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY ON SUN BUT MANY STREAMS AND
RIVERS ARE LIKELY TO BE SWOLLEN OR OUT OF THEIR BANKS.
&&
.AVIATION...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EARLY SAT WITH FREQ SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ESPECIALLY NORTH
COAST PR AND USVI TERMINALS. THE LEEWARD TERMINALS ESPECIALLY
SAINT MAARTEN WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE TSTMS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 6 FEET SOON AND SCA WILL
LIKELY BE CANCELLED THIS AFTERNOON. TSTMS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 86 76 / 70 70 70 70
STT 85 76 86 77 / 70 70 70 70
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-
NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN
JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN
INTERIOR.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.
&&
$$
64/64
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