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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010243
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1043 PM AST TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED. TROUGH
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND
INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH TWO AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND SOUTH OF
JAMAICA. WEAKENING OF MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
REACHING ITS MAXIMUM...NEAR TWO INCHES...THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE. BEHIND THIS
WAVE...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FOR THE EAST.

THEREFORE UNDER THIS EVOLVING PATTERN...AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
EVENING AND FRIDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...PASSING -SHRA EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS
WILL CREATE VCSH AT TKPK AND TNCM DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND COULD REACH TIST/TISX DURING THIS PERIOD.
AFTER...01/16Z VCSH EXPECTED AT TJBQ AND TJMZ WITH POSSIBLE MTN TOP
OBSCD OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5-14
KTS BELOW 3 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM AST TUE SEP 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY....MAINTAINING A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL WEDNESDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...INCREASING THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
AFTER THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSES...MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...FAIRLY WARM DAY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 94
DEGREES SO FAR IN SAN JUAN...TYING THE RECORD SET BACK IN 2001. IT
WAS ALSO DRY WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS OBSERVED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF PR IN THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE OBSERVED. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW PR IN THE AREAS WHERE CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING...BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS IF THEY DEVELOP. THE REST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES SLIGHTLY AS WELL...SO THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NW PORTIONS OF PR. HOWEVER THE REAL INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES INTO THE LOCAL AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA AND REMAIN OVER THE ISLANDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NAAPS MODEL INDICATES THAT SAHARAN DUST WILL
BE MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY ALONG WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...SO DRY AND
HAZY CONDITIONS ARE VERY POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.

BEHIND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THERE ARE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
MORE MOIST AIR...WHICH MAY MOVE INTO THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON TUESDAY
AFTER THE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES. THIS MAY LEAVE US WITH PASSING
SHOWERS AND SOME CLOUDS AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AND ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA DURING THE PRD. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE ESE AT 5-15 KTS BLO FL150...BCMG FM NE-N ABV AND INCR TO
20-25 KTS NR FL350. FEW FAIR WX CU LINES W/NO SIG VERTICAL EXTENT EN
ROUTE BTW E PR AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS
ATTM.

MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 3 TO 4 FEET FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 17 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  92  78  91 /  20  20  30  30
STT  80  89  80  89 /  30  30  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/23





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010243
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1043 PM AST TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED. TROUGH
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND
INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH TWO AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND SOUTH OF
JAMAICA. WEAKENING OF MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
REACHING ITS MAXIMUM...NEAR TWO INCHES...THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE. BEHIND THIS
WAVE...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FOR THE EAST.

THEREFORE UNDER THIS EVOLVING PATTERN...AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
EVENING AND FRIDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...PASSING -SHRA EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS
WILL CREATE VCSH AT TKPK AND TNCM DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND COULD REACH TIST/TISX DURING THIS PERIOD.
AFTER...01/16Z VCSH EXPECTED AT TJBQ AND TJMZ WITH POSSIBLE MTN TOP
OBSCD OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5-14
KTS BELOW 3 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM AST TUE SEP 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY....MAINTAINING A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL WEDNESDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...INCREASING THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
AFTER THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSES...MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...FAIRLY WARM DAY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 94
DEGREES SO FAR IN SAN JUAN...TYING THE RECORD SET BACK IN 2001. IT
WAS ALSO DRY WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS OBSERVED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF PR IN THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE OBSERVED. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW PR IN THE AREAS WHERE CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING...BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS IF THEY DEVELOP. THE REST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES SLIGHTLY AS WELL...SO THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NW PORTIONS OF PR. HOWEVER THE REAL INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES INTO THE LOCAL AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA AND REMAIN OVER THE ISLANDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NAAPS MODEL INDICATES THAT SAHARAN DUST WILL
BE MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY ALONG WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...SO DRY AND
HAZY CONDITIONS ARE VERY POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.

BEHIND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THERE ARE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
MORE MOIST AIR...WHICH MAY MOVE INTO THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON TUESDAY
AFTER THE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES. THIS MAY LEAVE US WITH PASSING
SHOWERS AND SOME CLOUDS AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AND ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA DURING THE PRD. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE ESE AT 5-15 KTS BLO FL150...BCMG FM NE-N ABV AND INCR TO
20-25 KTS NR FL350. FEW FAIR WX CU LINES W/NO SIG VERTICAL EXTENT EN
ROUTE BTW E PR AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS
ATTM.

MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 3 TO 4 FEET FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 17 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  92  78  91 /  20  20  30  30
STT  80  89  80  89 /  30  30  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301857
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY....MAINTAINING A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL WEDNESDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...INCREASING THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
AFTER THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSES...MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY WARM DAY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 94
DEGREES SO FAR IN SAN JUAN...TYING THE RECORD SET BACK IN 2001. IT
WAS ALSO DRY WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS OBSERVED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF PR IN THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE OBSERVED. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW PR IN THE AREAS WHERE CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING...BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS IF THEY DEVELOP. THE REST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES SLIGHTLY AS WELL...SO THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NW PORTIONS OF PR. HOWEVER THE REAL INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES INTO THE LOCAL AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA AND REMAIN OVER THE ISLANDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NAAPS MODEL INDICATES THAT SAHARAN DUST WILL
BE MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY ALONG WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...SO DRY AND
HAZY CONDITIONS ARE VERY POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.

BEHIND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THERE ARE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
MORE MOIST AIR...WHICH MAY MOVE INTO THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON TUESDAY
AFTER THE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES. THIS MAY LEAVE US WITH PASSING
SHOWERS AND SOME CLOUDS AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AND ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA DURING THE PRD. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE ESE AT 5-15 KTS BLO FL150...BCMG FM NE-N ABV AND INCR TO
20-25 KTS NR FL350. FEW FAIR WX CU LINES W/NO SIG VERTICAL EXTENT EN
ROUTE BTW E PR AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS
ATTM.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 3 TO 4 FEET FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 17 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  92  78  91 /  20  20  30  30
STT  80  89  80  89 /  30  30  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301857
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY....MAINTAINING A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL WEDNESDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...INCREASING THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
AFTER THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSES...MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY WARM DAY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 94
DEGREES SO FAR IN SAN JUAN...TYING THE RECORD SET BACK IN 2001. IT
WAS ALSO DRY WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS OBSERVED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF PR IN THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE OBSERVED. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW PR IN THE AREAS WHERE CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING...BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS IF THEY DEVELOP. THE REST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES SLIGHTLY AS WELL...SO THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NW PORTIONS OF PR. HOWEVER THE REAL INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES INTO THE LOCAL AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA AND REMAIN OVER THE ISLANDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NAAPS MODEL INDICATES THAT SAHARAN DUST WILL
BE MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY ALONG WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...SO DRY AND
HAZY CONDITIONS ARE VERY POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.

BEHIND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THERE ARE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
MORE MOIST AIR...WHICH MAY MOVE INTO THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON TUESDAY
AFTER THE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES. THIS MAY LEAVE US WITH PASSING
SHOWERS AND SOME CLOUDS AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AND ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA DURING THE PRD. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE ESE AT 5-15 KTS BLO FL150...BCMG FM NE-N ABV AND INCR TO
20-25 KTS NR FL350. FEW FAIR WX CU LINES W/NO SIG VERTICAL EXTENT EN
ROUTE BTW E PR AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS
ATTM.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 3 TO 4 FEET FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 17 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  92  78  91 /  20  20  30  30
STT  80  89  80  89 /  30  30  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301452
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1052 AM AST TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION SO FAR
THIS MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION WAS REPORTED OR DETECTED BY THE
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT TJSJ 30/12Z
UPPER AIR SOUNDING BOTH SUGGEST DRIER AIR MASS AND STABLE
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER DOWN TO NEAR 1.30 INCHES. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT A
LATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWER PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHWEST
SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE SHOULD EXPERIENCE HOT AND FAIR
WEATHER SKIES UNDER THE PREVAILING LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.
NO CHANGE MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURG PRD. NO SIG OPERATION
WX IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. NO CHG TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS CONTINUE WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS
EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM AST TUE SEP 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
HOLD THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A FAIR WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION TROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY MORNING...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THEN...STABLE AND DRIER AIR
MASS IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE
ISLANDS IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE PREVAILED
DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS AND NO RAINFALL HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE
PR/USVI REGION SO FAR THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY ONLY SHOWS
CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE TEMPERATURE ABOVE NORMAL. AN OVERALL FAIR
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
PASSING SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS AND EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN PR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEN...A TROPICAL
WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE PR/USVI REGION LATE THURSDAY. THE WAVE
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STABLE AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS THEN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER CONVERGENT
PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A PULSE OF SAHARAN
DUST IS FORECAST TO REACH THE ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AND ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA DURING THE PERIOD. VCSH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY SOUTHEAST
AT 10 TO 15 KTS EXCEPT FOR SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS IN COASTAL AREAS.

MARINE...SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT AND WINDS 10-15 KT. TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY INCREASING
THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  93  78  92  78 /  20  20  20  30
STT  88  80  89  80 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301452
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1052 AM AST TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION SO FAR
THIS MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION WAS REPORTED OR DETECTED BY THE
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT TJSJ 30/12Z
UPPER AIR SOUNDING BOTH SUGGEST DRIER AIR MASS AND STABLE
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER DOWN TO NEAR 1.30 INCHES. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT A
LATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWER PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHWEST
SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE SHOULD EXPERIENCE HOT AND FAIR
WEATHER SKIES UNDER THE PREVAILING LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.
NO CHANGE MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURG PRD. NO SIG OPERATION
WX IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. NO CHG TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS CONTINUE WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS
EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM AST TUE SEP 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
HOLD THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A FAIR WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION TROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY MORNING...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THEN...STABLE AND DRIER AIR
MASS IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE
ISLANDS IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE PREVAILED
DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS AND NO RAINFALL HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE
PR/USVI REGION SO FAR THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY ONLY SHOWS
CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE TEMPERATURE ABOVE NORMAL. AN OVERALL FAIR
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
PASSING SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS AND EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN PR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEN...A TROPICAL
WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE PR/USVI REGION LATE THURSDAY. THE WAVE
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STABLE AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS THEN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER CONVERGENT
PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A PULSE OF SAHARAN
DUST IS FORECAST TO REACH THE ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AND ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA DURING THE PERIOD. VCSH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY SOUTHEAST
AT 10 TO 15 KTS EXCEPT FOR SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS IN COASTAL AREAS.

MARINE...SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT AND WINDS 10-15 KT. TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY INCREASING
THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  93  78  92  78 /  20  20  20  30
STT  88  80  89  80 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300948
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
548 AM AST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
HOLD THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A FAIR WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION TROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY MORNING...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THEN...STABLE AND DRIER AIR
MASS IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE
ISLANDS IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE PREVAILED
DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS AND NO RAINFALL HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE
PR/USVI REGION SO FAR THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY ONLY SHOWS
CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE TEMPERATURE ABOVE NORMAL. AN OVERALL FAIR
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
PASSING SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS AND EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN PR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEN...A TROPICAL
WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE PR/USVI REGION LATE THURSDAY. THE WAVE
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STABLE AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS THEN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER CONVERGENT
PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A PULSE OF SAHARAN
DUST IS FORECAST TO REACH THE ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AND ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA DURING THE PERIOD. VCSH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY SOUTHEAST
AT 10 TO 15 KTS EXCEPT FOR SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS IN COASTAL AREAS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT AND WINDS 10-15 KT. TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY INCREASING
THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  93  78  92  78 /  20  20  20  30
STT  88  80  89  80 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

71/11






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300948
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
548 AM AST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
HOLD THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A FAIR WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION TROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY MORNING...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THEN...STABLE AND DRIER AIR
MASS IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE
ISLANDS IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE PREVAILED
DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS AND NO RAINFALL HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE
PR/USVI REGION SO FAR THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY ONLY SHOWS
CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE TEMPERATURE ABOVE NORMAL. AN OVERALL FAIR
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
PASSING SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS AND EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN PR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEN...A TROPICAL
WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE PR/USVI REGION LATE THURSDAY. THE WAVE
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STABLE AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS THEN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER CONVERGENT
PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A PULSE OF SAHARAN
DUST IS FORECAST TO REACH THE ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AND ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA DURING THE PERIOD. VCSH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY SOUTHEAST
AT 10 TO 15 KTS EXCEPT FOR SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS IN COASTAL AREAS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT AND WINDS 10-15 KT. TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY INCREASING
THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  93  78  92  78 /  20  20  20  30
STT  88  80  89  80 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

71/11





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300022 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
822 PM AST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT PATTERN ALOFT EXPECTED TO DOMINATE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AT MID LEVELS...RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH MID WEEK THEN
START TO WEAKEN. TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THU OR THU NIGHT.


&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
THROUGH WED AND MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THU-THU NIGHT INCREASING THE RISK OF
SHOWERS. ANOTHER TUTT WILL ESTABLISH OVR THE LEEWARDS DURING THE
WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN STRENGTHENING OVER THE
LOCAL AREA LEADING TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. THIS MAY ALSO
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LATE SEASON SAHARAN DUST EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AND ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA DURG THE PRD. LIGHT WNDS FM ESE 5-10 KTS. NO SIG
OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT AND WINDS 10-15 KT. TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU-THU NIGHT INCREASING THE RISK OF
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  91  79  90 /   0  20  20  20
STT  81  82  82  90 /   0  40  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/64








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300022 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
822 PM AST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT PATTERN ALOFT EXPECTED TO DOMINATE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AT MID LEVELS...RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH MID WEEK THEN
START TO WEAKEN. TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THU OR THU NIGHT.


&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
THROUGH WED AND MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THU-THU NIGHT INCREASING THE RISK OF
SHOWERS. ANOTHER TUTT WILL ESTABLISH OVR THE LEEWARDS DURING THE
WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN STRENGTHENING OVER THE
LOCAL AREA LEADING TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. THIS MAY ALSO
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LATE SEASON SAHARAN DUST EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AND ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA DURG THE PRD. LIGHT WNDS FM ESE 5-10 KTS. NO SIG
OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT AND WINDS 10-15 KT. TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU-THU NIGHT INCREASING THE RISK OF
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  91  79  90 /   0  20  20  20
STT  81  82  82  90 /   0  40  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/64









000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291854
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH MIDWEEK. MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL EXPAND OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
TO THE WEST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY
...BEFORE THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL INCREASE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INCREASE THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED TODAY ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. THE 29/12Z RAOB INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE OF ONLY 1.25 INCHES AND SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER
INDICATED THAT WE HAVE A LARGE AREA OF DRIER AIR OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MOISTURE COMING IN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WHICH MAY CAUSE A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING HOURS...WHILE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF PR. A PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES IN ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY ONCE AGAIN CAUSE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR
IN THE AFTERNOON. THEN A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2
INCHES AND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER MUCH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS SAHARAN
DUST MOVES IN  AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAAPS MODEL.

HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS NOT THE WHOLE STORY...EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE DOES NOT INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS
OF THE WEEK. IT DOES INCREASE QUITE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE WAVE APPROACHES. THIS MEANS THAT THE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE WAVE
APPROACHES...LINGERING A BIT INTO FRIDAY...THEN BECOMING MUCH MORE
STABLE ON SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AND ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA DURG THE PRD. LIGHT WNDS FM S 5-10 KTS BLO
FL150...BCMG FM W AND INCR TO 25-30 KTS BTW FL250-FL300. NO SIG
OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF UP TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH WINDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  91  78  90 /  10  20  20  20
STT  79  89  80  90 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291854
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH MIDWEEK. MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL EXPAND OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
TO THE WEST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY
...BEFORE THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL INCREASE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INCREASE THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED TODAY ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. THE 29/12Z RAOB INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE OF ONLY 1.25 INCHES AND SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER
INDICATED THAT WE HAVE A LARGE AREA OF DRIER AIR OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MOISTURE COMING IN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WHICH MAY CAUSE A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING HOURS...WHILE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF PR. A PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES IN ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY ONCE AGAIN CAUSE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR
IN THE AFTERNOON. THEN A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2
INCHES AND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER MUCH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS SAHARAN
DUST MOVES IN  AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAAPS MODEL.

HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS NOT THE WHOLE STORY...EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE DOES NOT INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS
OF THE WEEK. IT DOES INCREASE QUITE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE WAVE APPROACHES. THIS MEANS THAT THE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE WAVE
APPROACHES...LINGERING A BIT INTO FRIDAY...THEN BECOMING MUCH MORE
STABLE ON SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AND ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA DURG THE PRD. LIGHT WNDS FM S 5-10 KTS BLO
FL150...BCMG FM W AND INCR TO 25-30 KTS BTW FL250-FL300. NO SIG
OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF UP TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH WINDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  91  78  90 /  10  20  20  20
STT  79  89  80  90 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291448
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1048 AM AST MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED DURING THE
THE MORNING HOURS. MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS WERE DUE TO PATCHES OF MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
ONLY A FEW SHALLOW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING WEST NORTHWEST OVER
PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED
OR DETECTED BY THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SO FAR TODAY.

A CONTINUED DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST TJSJ
29/12 UPPER AIR SOUNDING. LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED TO NEAR 1.25 INCHES AND THE LOCAL AIR MASS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY.
FEW POCKETS OF MOISTURE STILL LINGER OVER PARTS OF THE ISLANDS
AND ALTHOUGH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETTING UP...EXPECT LOCAL AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS TO LEAD TO SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THE ACTIVITY
HOWEVER BE OF SHORT DURATION WITH MOSTLY FAIR AND IMPROVING
WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...SEAS PRESENTLY AT 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS LESS
THAN 16 KNOTS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS EXPECTED AND NO CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM AST MON SEP 29 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH MIDWEEK. MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL EXPAND OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT WESTWARD OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...BEFORE
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER HISPANOLA HAVE PUSHED HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. DOPPLER RADAR HAVE SHOWED SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE. NO RAINFALL
WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS SINCE MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE BLENDED PWAT
ANALYSIS INDICATED AN BROAD AREA OF LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. UNDER A SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW...A DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECT TO ADVECT OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW
MOISTURE CONTENT COMBINED WITH A GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS INDUCED
BY THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK MAINTAINING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THEN...MOISTURE WILL SURGE
AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE CROSSES
THE PR/USVI REGION. ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY MOIST SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STABLE AND EVEN DRIER AIR
MASS IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
NAAPS AND NASA GEOS-5 AEROSOL MODELS SUGGEST A PULSE OF SAHARAN DUST
REACHING THE ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 18-21Z. SE WIND
AROUND 10KT WILL PREVAIL BELOW FL100.

MARINE...SEAS CONTINUED AT 2-4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 16 KNOTS
EXPECTED MOST OF THE WEEK. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  92  77  91  78 /  10  10  20  20
STT  87  78  89  81 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291448
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1048 AM AST MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED DURING THE
THE MORNING HOURS. MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS WERE DUE TO PATCHES OF MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
ONLY A FEW SHALLOW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING WEST NORTHWEST OVER
PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED
OR DETECTED BY THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SO FAR TODAY.

A CONTINUED DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST TJSJ
29/12 UPPER AIR SOUNDING. LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED TO NEAR 1.25 INCHES AND THE LOCAL AIR MASS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY.
FEW POCKETS OF MOISTURE STILL LINGER OVER PARTS OF THE ISLANDS
AND ALTHOUGH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETTING UP...EXPECT LOCAL AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS TO LEAD TO SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THE ACTIVITY
HOWEVER BE OF SHORT DURATION WITH MOSTLY FAIR AND IMPROVING
WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...SEAS PRESENTLY AT 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS LESS
THAN 16 KNOTS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS EXPECTED AND NO CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM AST MON SEP 29 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH MIDWEEK. MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL EXPAND OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT WESTWARD OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...BEFORE
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER HISPANOLA HAVE PUSHED HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. DOPPLER RADAR HAVE SHOWED SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE. NO RAINFALL
WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS SINCE MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE BLENDED PWAT
ANALYSIS INDICATED AN BROAD AREA OF LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. UNDER A SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW...A DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECT TO ADVECT OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW
MOISTURE CONTENT COMBINED WITH A GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS INDUCED
BY THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK MAINTAINING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THEN...MOISTURE WILL SURGE
AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE CROSSES
THE PR/USVI REGION. ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY MOIST SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STABLE AND EVEN DRIER AIR
MASS IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
NAAPS AND NASA GEOS-5 AEROSOL MODELS SUGGEST A PULSE OF SAHARAN DUST
REACHING THE ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 18-21Z. SE WIND
AROUND 10KT WILL PREVAIL BELOW FL100.

MARINE...SEAS CONTINUED AT 2-4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 16 KNOTS
EXPECTED MOST OF THE WEEK. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  92  77  91  78 /  10  10  20  20
STT  87  78  89  81 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291448
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1048 AM AST MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED DURING THE
THE MORNING HOURS. MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS WERE DUE TO PATCHES OF MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
ONLY A FEW SHALLOW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING WEST NORTHWEST OVER
PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED
OR DETECTED BY THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SO FAR TODAY.

A CONTINUED DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST TJSJ
29/12 UPPER AIR SOUNDING. LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED TO NEAR 1.25 INCHES AND THE LOCAL AIR MASS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY.
FEW POCKETS OF MOISTURE STILL LINGER OVER PARTS OF THE ISLANDS
AND ALTHOUGH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETTING UP...EXPECT LOCAL AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS TO LEAD TO SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THE ACTIVITY
HOWEVER BE OF SHORT DURATION WITH MOSTLY FAIR AND IMPROVING
WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...SEAS PRESENTLY AT 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS LESS
THAN 16 KNOTS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS EXPECTED AND NO CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM AST MON SEP 29 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH MIDWEEK. MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL EXPAND OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT WESTWARD OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...BEFORE
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER HISPANOLA HAVE PUSHED HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. DOPPLER RADAR HAVE SHOWED SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE. NO RAINFALL
WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS SINCE MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE BLENDED PWAT
ANALYSIS INDICATED AN BROAD AREA OF LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. UNDER A SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW...A DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECT TO ADVECT OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW
MOISTURE CONTENT COMBINED WITH A GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS INDUCED
BY THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK MAINTAINING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THEN...MOISTURE WILL SURGE
AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE CROSSES
THE PR/USVI REGION. ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY MOIST SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STABLE AND EVEN DRIER AIR
MASS IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
NAAPS AND NASA GEOS-5 AEROSOL MODELS SUGGEST A PULSE OF SAHARAN DUST
REACHING THE ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 18-21Z. SE WIND
AROUND 10KT WILL PREVAIL BELOW FL100.

MARINE...SEAS CONTINUED AT 2-4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 16 KNOTS
EXPECTED MOST OF THE WEEK. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  92  77  91  78 /  10  10  20  20
STT  87  78  89  81 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291448
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1048 AM AST MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED DURING THE
THE MORNING HOURS. MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS WERE DUE TO PATCHES OF MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
ONLY A FEW SHALLOW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING WEST NORTHWEST OVER
PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED
OR DETECTED BY THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SO FAR TODAY.

A CONTINUED DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST TJSJ
29/12 UPPER AIR SOUNDING. LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED TO NEAR 1.25 INCHES AND THE LOCAL AIR MASS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY.
FEW POCKETS OF MOISTURE STILL LINGER OVER PARTS OF THE ISLANDS
AND ALTHOUGH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETTING UP...EXPECT LOCAL AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS TO LEAD TO SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THE ACTIVITY
HOWEVER BE OF SHORT DURATION WITH MOSTLY FAIR AND IMPROVING
WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...SEAS PRESENTLY AT 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS LESS
THAN 16 KNOTS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS EXPECTED AND NO CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM AST MON SEP 29 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH MIDWEEK. MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL EXPAND OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT WESTWARD OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...BEFORE
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER HISPANOLA HAVE PUSHED HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. DOPPLER RADAR HAVE SHOWED SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE. NO RAINFALL
WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS SINCE MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE BLENDED PWAT
ANALYSIS INDICATED AN BROAD AREA OF LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. UNDER A SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW...A DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECT TO ADVECT OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW
MOISTURE CONTENT COMBINED WITH A GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS INDUCED
BY THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK MAINTAINING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THEN...MOISTURE WILL SURGE
AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE CROSSES
THE PR/USVI REGION. ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY MOIST SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STABLE AND EVEN DRIER AIR
MASS IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
NAAPS AND NASA GEOS-5 AEROSOL MODELS SUGGEST A PULSE OF SAHARAN DUST
REACHING THE ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 18-21Z. SE WIND
AROUND 10KT WILL PREVAIL BELOW FL100.

MARINE...SEAS CONTINUED AT 2-4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 16 KNOTS
EXPECTED MOST OF THE WEEK. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  92  77  91  78 /  10  10  20  20
STT  87  78  89  81 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290931
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH MIDWEEK. MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL EXPAND OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT WESTWARD OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...BEFORE
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER HISPANOLA HAVE PUSHED HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. DOPPLER RADAR HAVE SHOWED SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE. NO RAINFALL
WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS SINCE MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE BLENDED PWAT
ANALYSIS INDICATED AN BROAD AREA OF LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. UNDER A SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW...A DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECT TO ADVECT OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW
MOISTURE CONTENT COMBINED WITH A GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS INDUCED
BY THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK MAINTAINING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THEN...MOISTURE WILL SURGE
AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE CROSSES
THE PR/USVI REGION. ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY MOIST SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STABLE AND EVEN DRIER AIR
MASS IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
NAAPS AND NASA GEOS-5 AEROSOL MODELS SUGGEST A PULSE OF SAHARAN DUST
REACHING THE ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 18-21Z. SE WIND
AROUND 10KT WILL PREVAIL BELOW FL100.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS CONTINUED AT 2-4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 16 KNOTS
EXPECTED MOST OF THE WEEK. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  92  77  91  78 /  10  10  20  20
STT  87  78  89  81 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

71/11





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290931
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH MIDWEEK. MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL EXPAND OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT WESTWARD OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...BEFORE
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER HISPANOLA HAVE PUSHED HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. DOPPLER RADAR HAVE SHOWED SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE. NO RAINFALL
WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS SINCE MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE BLENDED PWAT
ANALYSIS INDICATED AN BROAD AREA OF LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. UNDER A SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW...A DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECT TO ADVECT OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW
MOISTURE CONTENT COMBINED WITH A GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS INDUCED
BY THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK MAINTAINING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THEN...MOISTURE WILL SURGE
AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE CROSSES
THE PR/USVI REGION. ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY MOIST SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STABLE AND EVEN DRIER AIR
MASS IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
NAAPS AND NASA GEOS-5 AEROSOL MODELS SUGGEST A PULSE OF SAHARAN DUST
REACHING THE ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 18-21Z. SE WIND
AROUND 10KT WILL PREVAIL BELOW FL100.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS CONTINUED AT 2-4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 16 KNOTS
EXPECTED MOST OF THE WEEK. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  92  77  91  78 /  10  10  20  20
STT  87  78  89  81 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

71/11





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290931
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH MIDWEEK. MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL EXPAND OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT WESTWARD OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...BEFORE
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER HISPANOLA HAVE PUSHED HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. DOPPLER RADAR HAVE SHOWED SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE. NO RAINFALL
WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS SINCE MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE BLENDED PWAT
ANALYSIS INDICATED AN BROAD AREA OF LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. UNDER A SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW...A DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECT TO ADVECT OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW
MOISTURE CONTENT COMBINED WITH A GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS INDUCED
BY THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK MAINTAINING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THEN...MOISTURE WILL SURGE
AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE CROSSES
THE PR/USVI REGION. ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY MOIST SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STABLE AND EVEN DRIER AIR
MASS IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
NAAPS AND NASA GEOS-5 AEROSOL MODELS SUGGEST A PULSE OF SAHARAN DUST
REACHING THE ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 18-21Z. SE WIND
AROUND 10KT WILL PREVAIL BELOW FL100.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS CONTINUED AT 2-4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 16 KNOTS
EXPECTED MOST OF THE WEEK. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  92  77  91  78 /  10  10  20  20
STT  87  78  89  81 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

71/11





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290931
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH MIDWEEK. MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL EXPAND OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT WESTWARD OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...BEFORE
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER HISPANOLA HAVE PUSHED HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. DOPPLER RADAR HAVE SHOWED SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE. NO RAINFALL
WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS SINCE MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE BLENDED PWAT
ANALYSIS INDICATED AN BROAD AREA OF LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. UNDER A SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW...A DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECT TO ADVECT OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW
MOISTURE CONTENT COMBINED WITH A GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS INDUCED
BY THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK MAINTAINING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THEN...MOISTURE WILL SURGE
AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE CROSSES
THE PR/USVI REGION. ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY MOIST SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STABLE AND EVEN DRIER AIR
MASS IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
NAAPS AND NASA GEOS-5 AEROSOL MODELS SUGGEST A PULSE OF SAHARAN DUST
REACHING THE ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 18-21Z. SE WIND
AROUND 10KT WILL PREVAIL BELOW FL100.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS CONTINUED AT 2-4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 16 KNOTS
EXPECTED MOST OF THE WEEK. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  92  77  91  78 /  10  10  20  20
STT  87  78  89  81 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

71/11





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