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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301534
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1134 AM AST THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AXIS OF TROPICAL WAVE NOW
BETWEEN EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BUT EMBEDDED IN
THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND SUSPENDED DUST. HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATER IN THE EVENING AND
ON FRIDAY WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...AS THE TUTT WILL BETTER INTERACT WITH THE PASSING
TROPICAL WAVE AS IT REPOSITIONS ITSELF JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...PREVAILING VFR CONDS ATTM. FEW CU W/PASSING
-SHRA BTW E PR AND USVI. SCT020...SCT060...TOPS 120-150...CLR
ABV...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL REMAIN PSBL OVR W PR AND IN AND
AROUND TJMZ AFTER 17Z...AS WELL AS OVR E INTERIOR OF PR. AS RESULT
BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCR WITH CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT. LOW LVL EASTERLY
WINDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL. SFC WND MAINLY FM E-NE AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS...OCNL HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS PSBL TIL 30/23Z.NO
OTHER CHG TO PREV DISCUSSION.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...RECENT SURROUNDING BUOY DATA SUGGEST WINDS AND
SEAS CONTINUE AT 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND 5 FEET OR LESS RESPECTIVELY...
NO CHG TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM AST THU JUL 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION NEXT FEW DAYS.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. BEST
ACTIVITY WAS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE.
THIS TROPICAL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA....MAINLY ON FRIDAY...WHEN LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCTS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST PWAT VALUES REACHING 2.00 INCHES OR
SO BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN
MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN EXPECTED AS ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. HOWEVER VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS TNCM/TKPK AND ACROSS TIST/
TISX THIS MORNING. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AFTER
17Z. LOW LVL EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  79  90  79 /  20  20  40  40
STT  90  79  87  79 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301534
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1134 AM AST THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AXIS OF TROPICAL WAVE NOW
BETWEEN EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BUT EMBEDDED IN
THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND SUSPENDED DUST. HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATER IN THE EVENING AND
ON FRIDAY WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...AS THE TUTT WILL BETTER INTERACT WITH THE PASSING
TROPICAL WAVE AS IT REPOSITIONS ITSELF JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...PREVAILING VFR CONDS ATTM. FEW CU W/PASSING
-SHRA BTW E PR AND USVI. SCT020...SCT060...TOPS 120-150...CLR
ABV...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL REMAIN PSBL OVR W PR AND IN AND
AROUND TJMZ AFTER 17Z...AS WELL AS OVR E INTERIOR OF PR. AS RESULT
BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCR WITH CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT. LOW LVL EASTERLY
WINDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL. SFC WND MAINLY FM E-NE AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS...OCNL HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS PSBL TIL 30/23Z.NO
OTHER CHG TO PREV DISCUSSION.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...RECENT SURROUNDING BUOY DATA SUGGEST WINDS AND
SEAS CONTINUE AT 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND 5 FEET OR LESS RESPECTIVELY...
NO CHG TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM AST THU JUL 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION NEXT FEW DAYS.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. BEST
ACTIVITY WAS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE.
THIS TROPICAL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA....MAINLY ON FRIDAY...WHEN LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCTS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST PWAT VALUES REACHING 2.00 INCHES OR
SO BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN
MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN EXPECTED AS ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. HOWEVER VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS TNCM/TKPK AND ACROSS TIST/
TISX THIS MORNING. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AFTER
17Z. LOW LVL EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  79  90  79 /  20  20  40  40
STT  90  79  87  79 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301534
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1134 AM AST THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AXIS OF TROPICAL WAVE NOW
BETWEEN EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BUT EMBEDDED IN
THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND SUSPENDED DUST. HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATER IN THE EVENING AND
ON FRIDAY WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...AS THE TUTT WILL BETTER INTERACT WITH THE PASSING
TROPICAL WAVE AS IT REPOSITIONS ITSELF JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...PREVAILING VFR CONDS ATTM. FEW CU W/PASSING
-SHRA BTW E PR AND USVI. SCT020...SCT060...TOPS 120-150...CLR
ABV...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL REMAIN PSBL OVR W PR AND IN AND
AROUND TJMZ AFTER 17Z...AS WELL AS OVR E INTERIOR OF PR. AS RESULT
BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCR WITH CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT. LOW LVL EASTERLY
WINDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL. SFC WND MAINLY FM E-NE AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS...OCNL HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS PSBL TIL 30/23Z.NO
OTHER CHG TO PREV DISCUSSION.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...RECENT SURROUNDING BUOY DATA SUGGEST WINDS AND
SEAS CONTINUE AT 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND 5 FEET OR LESS RESPECTIVELY...
NO CHG TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM AST THU JUL 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION NEXT FEW DAYS.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. BEST
ACTIVITY WAS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE.
THIS TROPICAL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA....MAINLY ON FRIDAY...WHEN LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCTS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST PWAT VALUES REACHING 2.00 INCHES OR
SO BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN
MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN EXPECTED AS ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. HOWEVER VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS TNCM/TKPK AND ACROSS TIST/
TISX THIS MORNING. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AFTER
17Z. LOW LVL EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  79  90  79 /  20  20  40  40
STT  90  79  87  79 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301534
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1134 AM AST THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AXIS OF TROPICAL WAVE NOW
BETWEEN EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BUT EMBEDDED IN
THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND SUSPENDED DUST. HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATER IN THE EVENING AND
ON FRIDAY WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...AS THE TUTT WILL BETTER INTERACT WITH THE PASSING
TROPICAL WAVE AS IT REPOSITIONS ITSELF JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...PREVAILING VFR CONDS ATTM. FEW CU W/PASSING
-SHRA BTW E PR AND USVI. SCT020...SCT060...TOPS 120-150...CLR
ABV...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL REMAIN PSBL OVR W PR AND IN AND
AROUND TJMZ AFTER 17Z...AS WELL AS OVR E INTERIOR OF PR. AS RESULT
BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCR WITH CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT. LOW LVL EASTERLY
WINDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL. SFC WND MAINLY FM E-NE AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS...OCNL HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS PSBL TIL 30/23Z.NO
OTHER CHG TO PREV DISCUSSION.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...RECENT SURROUNDING BUOY DATA SUGGEST WINDS AND
SEAS CONTINUE AT 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND 5 FEET OR LESS RESPECTIVELY...
NO CHG TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM AST THU JUL 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION NEXT FEW DAYS.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. BEST
ACTIVITY WAS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE.
THIS TROPICAL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA....MAINLY ON FRIDAY...WHEN LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCTS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST PWAT VALUES REACHING 2.00 INCHES OR
SO BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN
MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN EXPECTED AS ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. HOWEVER VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS TNCM/TKPK AND ACROSS TIST/
TISX THIS MORNING. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AFTER
17Z. LOW LVL EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  79  90  79 /  20  20  40  40
STT  90  79  87  79 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300928
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. BEST
ACTIVITY WAS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE.
THIS TROPICAL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA....MAINLY ON FRIDAY...WHEN LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCTS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST PWAT VALUES REACHING 2.00 INCHES OR
SO BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN
MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN EXPECTED AS ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. HOWEVER VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS TNCM/TKPK AND ACROSS TIST/
TISX THIS MORNING. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AFTER
17Z. LOW LVL EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  79  90  79 /  20  20  40  40
STT  90  79  87  79 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

11/71



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300928
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. BEST
ACTIVITY WAS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE.
THIS TROPICAL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA....MAINLY ON FRIDAY...WHEN LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCTS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST PWAT VALUES REACHING 2.00 INCHES OR
SO BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN
MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN EXPECTED AS ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. HOWEVER VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS TNCM/TKPK AND ACROSS TIST/
TISX THIS MORNING. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AFTER
17Z. LOW LVL EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  79  90  79 /  20  20  40  40
STT  90  79  87  79 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

11/71



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300928
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. BEST
ACTIVITY WAS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE.
THIS TROPICAL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA....MAINLY ON FRIDAY...WHEN LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCTS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST PWAT VALUES REACHING 2.00 INCHES OR
SO BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN
MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN EXPECTED AS ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. HOWEVER VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS TNCM/TKPK AND ACROSS TIST/
TISX THIS MORNING. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AFTER
17Z. LOW LVL EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  79  90  79 /  20  20  40  40
STT  90  79  87  79 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

11/71



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300928
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. BEST
ACTIVITY WAS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE.
THIS TROPICAL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA....MAINLY ON FRIDAY...WHEN LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCTS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST PWAT VALUES REACHING 2.00 INCHES OR
SO BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN
MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN EXPECTED AS ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. HOWEVER VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS TNCM/TKPK AND ACROSS TIST/
TISX THIS MORNING. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AFTER
17Z. LOW LVL EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  79  90  79 /  20  20  40  40
STT  90  79  87  79 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

11/71



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300249
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1049 PM AST WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...NO CHANGE TO SHORT TERM GRIDS...FORECAST ON TRACK.
A TROPICAL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. HOWEVER VCSH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK AFTER
30/08Z AND ACROSS TIST AND TISX EARLY IN THE MORNING. AFTER
30/17Z VCSH AND/OR VCTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ. EASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 15 KTS AND HIGHER
GUSTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 30/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. SEAS UP TO 5 FEET
AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN
OCCASIONALLY UP TO 6 FEET MAINLY OFFSHORE BY LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH INCREASING TRADE WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS...AS A TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM AST WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION... FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED FORMING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE WEST INTERIOR AND THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS. OVERALL...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
PREVAILED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER SMOTHERED
THE REGION AND CONTINUED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. STILL EXPECT
A FEW MORE SHOWERS MAY FORM DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT
ACTIVITY WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION AND LIMITED ONLY TO PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED
OVER LAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LATEST WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED WELL
DEFINED TUTT LOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO PLACE THE UPPER LOW IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR UPPER
LEVEL INSTABILITY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH
THE SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED BY THE TROPICAL
WAVE...WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH ENHANCED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS.
LATEST LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST
PWAT VALUES REACHING 2.00 INCHES OF SO BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. BY SATURDAY...RAPID DRYING IS EXPECTED AS TUTT LOW
WEAKENS ALOFT AND SHIFTS FARTHER WEST...AND ANOTHER AREA OF DRY
SAHARAN AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IS SO FAR EXPECTED.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. VCSH
POSSIBLE FOR TIST/TISX AND TJSJ EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH VCTS
POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AFTER 29/17Z. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS...DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 30/00Z. VCSH
POSSIBLE ACROSS TNCM/TKPK...TIST/TISX AS WELL AS TJSJ AFTER 30/06Z.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THEN OCCASIONALLY UP TO 6 FEET MAINLY OFFSHORE BY LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH INCREASING TRADE WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS...AS A TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR UPDATES AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  78  87 /  10  30  20  40
STT  78  89  78  87 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

72/23



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300249
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1049 PM AST WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...NO CHANGE TO SHORT TERM GRIDS...FORECAST ON TRACK.
A TROPICAL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. HOWEVER VCSH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK AFTER
30/08Z AND ACROSS TIST AND TISX EARLY IN THE MORNING. AFTER
30/17Z VCSH AND/OR VCTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ. EASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 15 KTS AND HIGHER
GUSTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 30/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. SEAS UP TO 5 FEET
AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN
OCCASIONALLY UP TO 6 FEET MAINLY OFFSHORE BY LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH INCREASING TRADE WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS...AS A TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM AST WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION... FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED FORMING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE WEST INTERIOR AND THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS. OVERALL...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
PREVAILED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER SMOTHERED
THE REGION AND CONTINUED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. STILL EXPECT
A FEW MORE SHOWERS MAY FORM DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT
ACTIVITY WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION AND LIMITED ONLY TO PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED
OVER LAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LATEST WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED WELL
DEFINED TUTT LOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO PLACE THE UPPER LOW IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR UPPER
LEVEL INSTABILITY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH
THE SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED BY THE TROPICAL
WAVE...WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH ENHANCED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS.
LATEST LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST
PWAT VALUES REACHING 2.00 INCHES OF SO BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. BY SATURDAY...RAPID DRYING IS EXPECTED AS TUTT LOW
WEAKENS ALOFT AND SHIFTS FARTHER WEST...AND ANOTHER AREA OF DRY
SAHARAN AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IS SO FAR EXPECTED.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. VCSH
POSSIBLE FOR TIST/TISX AND TJSJ EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH VCTS
POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AFTER 29/17Z. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS...DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 30/00Z. VCSH
POSSIBLE ACROSS TNCM/TKPK...TIST/TISX AS WELL AS TJSJ AFTER 30/06Z.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THEN OCCASIONALLY UP TO 6 FEET MAINLY OFFSHORE BY LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH INCREASING TRADE WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS...AS A TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR UPDATES AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  78  87 /  10  30  20  40
STT  78  89  78  87 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

72/23



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300249
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1049 PM AST WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...NO CHANGE TO SHORT TERM GRIDS...FORECAST ON TRACK.
A TROPICAL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. HOWEVER VCSH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK AFTER
30/08Z AND ACROSS TIST AND TISX EARLY IN THE MORNING. AFTER
30/17Z VCSH AND/OR VCTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ. EASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 15 KTS AND HIGHER
GUSTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 30/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. SEAS UP TO 5 FEET
AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN
OCCASIONALLY UP TO 6 FEET MAINLY OFFSHORE BY LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH INCREASING TRADE WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS...AS A TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM AST WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION... FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED FORMING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE WEST INTERIOR AND THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS. OVERALL...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
PREVAILED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER SMOTHERED
THE REGION AND CONTINUED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. STILL EXPECT
A FEW MORE SHOWERS MAY FORM DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT
ACTIVITY WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION AND LIMITED ONLY TO PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED
OVER LAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LATEST WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED WELL
DEFINED TUTT LOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO PLACE THE UPPER LOW IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR UPPER
LEVEL INSTABILITY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH
THE SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED BY THE TROPICAL
WAVE...WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH ENHANCED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS.
LATEST LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST
PWAT VALUES REACHING 2.00 INCHES OF SO BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. BY SATURDAY...RAPID DRYING IS EXPECTED AS TUTT LOW
WEAKENS ALOFT AND SHIFTS FARTHER WEST...AND ANOTHER AREA OF DRY
SAHARAN AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IS SO FAR EXPECTED.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. VCSH
POSSIBLE FOR TIST/TISX AND TJSJ EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH VCTS
POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AFTER 29/17Z. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS...DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 30/00Z. VCSH
POSSIBLE ACROSS TNCM/TKPK...TIST/TISX AS WELL AS TJSJ AFTER 30/06Z.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THEN OCCASIONALLY UP TO 6 FEET MAINLY OFFSHORE BY LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH INCREASING TRADE WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS...AS A TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR UPDATES AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  78  87 /  10  30  20  40
STT  78  89  78  87 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

72/23



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300249
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1049 PM AST WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...NO CHANGE TO SHORT TERM GRIDS...FORECAST ON TRACK.
A TROPICAL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. HOWEVER VCSH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK AFTER
30/08Z AND ACROSS TIST AND TISX EARLY IN THE MORNING. AFTER
30/17Z VCSH AND/OR VCTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ. EASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 15 KTS AND HIGHER
GUSTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 30/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. SEAS UP TO 5 FEET
AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN
OCCASIONALLY UP TO 6 FEET MAINLY OFFSHORE BY LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH INCREASING TRADE WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS...AS A TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM AST WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION... FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED FORMING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE WEST INTERIOR AND THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS. OVERALL...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
PREVAILED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER SMOTHERED
THE REGION AND CONTINUED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. STILL EXPECT
A FEW MORE SHOWERS MAY FORM DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT
ACTIVITY WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION AND LIMITED ONLY TO PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED
OVER LAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LATEST WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED WELL
DEFINED TUTT LOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO PLACE THE UPPER LOW IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR UPPER
LEVEL INSTABILITY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH
THE SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED BY THE TROPICAL
WAVE...WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH ENHANCED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS.
LATEST LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST
PWAT VALUES REACHING 2.00 INCHES OF SO BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. BY SATURDAY...RAPID DRYING IS EXPECTED AS TUTT LOW
WEAKENS ALOFT AND SHIFTS FARTHER WEST...AND ANOTHER AREA OF DRY
SAHARAN AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IS SO FAR EXPECTED.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. VCSH
POSSIBLE FOR TIST/TISX AND TJSJ EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH VCTS
POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AFTER 29/17Z. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS...DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 30/00Z. VCSH
POSSIBLE ACROSS TNCM/TKPK...TIST/TISX AS WELL AS TJSJ AFTER 30/06Z.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THEN OCCASIONALLY UP TO 6 FEET MAINLY OFFSHORE BY LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH INCREASING TRADE WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS...AS A TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR UPDATES AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  78  87 /  10  30  20  40
STT  78  89  78  87 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

72/23



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300249
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1049 PM AST WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...NO CHANGE TO SHORT TERM GRIDS...FORECAST ON TRACK.
A TROPICAL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. HOWEVER VCSH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK AFTER
30/08Z AND ACROSS TIST AND TISX EARLY IN THE MORNING. AFTER
30/17Z VCSH AND/OR VCTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ. EASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 15 KTS AND HIGHER
GUSTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 30/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. SEAS UP TO 5 FEET
AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN
OCCASIONALLY UP TO 6 FEET MAINLY OFFSHORE BY LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH INCREASING TRADE WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS...AS A TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM AST WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION... FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED FORMING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE WEST INTERIOR AND THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS. OVERALL...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
PREVAILED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER SMOTHERED
THE REGION AND CONTINUED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. STILL EXPECT
A FEW MORE SHOWERS MAY FORM DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT
ACTIVITY WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION AND LIMITED ONLY TO PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED
OVER LAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LATEST WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED WELL
DEFINED TUTT LOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO PLACE THE UPPER LOW IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR UPPER
LEVEL INSTABILITY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH
THE SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED BY THE TROPICAL
WAVE...WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH ENHANCED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS.
LATEST LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST
PWAT VALUES REACHING 2.00 INCHES OF SO BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. BY SATURDAY...RAPID DRYING IS EXPECTED AS TUTT LOW
WEAKENS ALOFT AND SHIFTS FARTHER WEST...AND ANOTHER AREA OF DRY
SAHARAN AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IS SO FAR EXPECTED.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. VCSH
POSSIBLE FOR TIST/TISX AND TJSJ EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH VCTS
POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AFTER 29/17Z. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS...DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 30/00Z. VCSH
POSSIBLE ACROSS TNCM/TKPK...TIST/TISX AS WELL AS TJSJ AFTER 30/06Z.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THEN OCCASIONALLY UP TO 6 FEET MAINLY OFFSHORE BY LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH INCREASING TRADE WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS...AS A TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR UPDATES AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  78  87 /  10  30  20  40
STT  78  89  78  87 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

72/23



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291850
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST WED JUL 29 2015

TUTT LOW NOW CENTERED OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS JUST EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES...WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT.
THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE TRANSPORTING A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH THE TUTT LOW ALREADY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION... FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED FORMING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE WEST INTERIOR AND THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS. OVERALL...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
PREVAILED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER SMOTHERED
THE REGION AND CONTINUED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. STILL EXPECT
A FEW MORE SHOWERS MAY FORM DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT
ACTIVITY WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION AND LIMITED ONLY TO PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED
OVER LAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LATEST WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED WELL
DEFINED TUTT LOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO PLACE THE UPPER LOW IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR UPPER
LEVEL INSTABILITY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH
THE SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED BY THE TROPICAL
WAVE...WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH ENHANCED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS.
LATEST LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST
PWAT VALUES REACHING 2.00 INCHES OF SO BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. BY SATURDAY...RAPID DRYING IS EXPECTED AS TUTT LOW
WEAKENS ALOFT AND SHIFTS FARTHER WEST...AND ANOTHER AREA OF DRY
SAHARAN AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IS SO FAR EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. VCSH
POSSIBLE FOR TIST/TISX AND TJSJ EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH VCTS
POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AFTER 29/17Z. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS...DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 30/00Z. VCSH
POSSIBLE ACROSS TNCM/TKPK...TIST/TISX AS WELL AS TJSJ AFTER 30/06Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THEN OCCASIONALLY UP TO 6 FEET MAINLY OFFSHORE BY LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH INCREASING TRADE WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS...AS A TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR UPDATES AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  78  87 /  10  30  20  40
STT  78  89  78  87 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

25/09




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291850
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST WED JUL 29 2015

TUTT LOW NOW CENTERED OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS JUST EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES...WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT.
THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE TRANSPORTING A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH THE TUTT LOW ALREADY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION... FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED FORMING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE WEST INTERIOR AND THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS. OVERALL...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
PREVAILED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER SMOTHERED
THE REGION AND CONTINUED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. STILL EXPECT
A FEW MORE SHOWERS MAY FORM DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT
ACTIVITY WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION AND LIMITED ONLY TO PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED
OVER LAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LATEST WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED WELL
DEFINED TUTT LOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO PLACE THE UPPER LOW IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR UPPER
LEVEL INSTABILITY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH
THE SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED BY THE TROPICAL
WAVE...WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH ENHANCED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS.
LATEST LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST
PWAT VALUES REACHING 2.00 INCHES OF SO BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. BY SATURDAY...RAPID DRYING IS EXPECTED AS TUTT LOW
WEAKENS ALOFT AND SHIFTS FARTHER WEST...AND ANOTHER AREA OF DRY
SAHARAN AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IS SO FAR EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. VCSH
POSSIBLE FOR TIST/TISX AND TJSJ EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH VCTS
POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AFTER 29/17Z. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS...DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 30/00Z. VCSH
POSSIBLE ACROSS TNCM/TKPK...TIST/TISX AS WELL AS TJSJ AFTER 30/06Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THEN OCCASIONALLY UP TO 6 FEET MAINLY OFFSHORE BY LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH INCREASING TRADE WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS...AS A TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR UPDATES AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  78  87 /  10  30  20  40
STT  78  89  78  87 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

25/09




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291850
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST WED JUL 29 2015

TUTT LOW NOW CENTERED OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS JUST EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES...WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT.
THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE TRANSPORTING A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH THE TUTT LOW ALREADY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION... FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED FORMING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE WEST INTERIOR AND THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS. OVERALL...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
PREVAILED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER SMOTHERED
THE REGION AND CONTINUED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. STILL EXPECT
A FEW MORE SHOWERS MAY FORM DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT
ACTIVITY WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION AND LIMITED ONLY TO PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED
OVER LAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LATEST WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED WELL
DEFINED TUTT LOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO PLACE THE UPPER LOW IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR UPPER
LEVEL INSTABILITY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH
THE SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED BY THE TROPICAL
WAVE...WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH ENHANCED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS.
LATEST LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST
PWAT VALUES REACHING 2.00 INCHES OF SO BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. BY SATURDAY...RAPID DRYING IS EXPECTED AS TUTT LOW
WEAKENS ALOFT AND SHIFTS FARTHER WEST...AND ANOTHER AREA OF DRY
SAHARAN AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IS SO FAR EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. VCSH
POSSIBLE FOR TIST/TISX AND TJSJ EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH VCTS
POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AFTER 29/17Z. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS...DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 30/00Z. VCSH
POSSIBLE ACROSS TNCM/TKPK...TIST/TISX AS WELL AS TJSJ AFTER 30/06Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THEN OCCASIONALLY UP TO 6 FEET MAINLY OFFSHORE BY LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH INCREASING TRADE WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS...AS A TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR UPDATES AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  78  87 /  10  30  20  40
STT  78  89  78  87 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

25/09




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291850
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST WED JUL 29 2015

TUTT LOW NOW CENTERED OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS JUST EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES...WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT.
THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE TRANSPORTING A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH THE TUTT LOW ALREADY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION... FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED FORMING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE WEST INTERIOR AND THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS. OVERALL...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
PREVAILED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER SMOTHERED
THE REGION AND CONTINUED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. STILL EXPECT
A FEW MORE SHOWERS MAY FORM DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT
ACTIVITY WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION AND LIMITED ONLY TO PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED
OVER LAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LATEST WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED WELL
DEFINED TUTT LOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO PLACE THE UPPER LOW IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR UPPER
LEVEL INSTABILITY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH
THE SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED BY THE TROPICAL
WAVE...WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH ENHANCED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS.
LATEST LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST
PWAT VALUES REACHING 2.00 INCHES OF SO BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. BY SATURDAY...RAPID DRYING IS EXPECTED AS TUTT LOW
WEAKENS ALOFT AND SHIFTS FARTHER WEST...AND ANOTHER AREA OF DRY
SAHARAN AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IS SO FAR EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. VCSH
POSSIBLE FOR TIST/TISX AND TJSJ EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH VCTS
POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AFTER 29/17Z. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS...DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 30/00Z. VCSH
POSSIBLE ACROSS TNCM/TKPK...TIST/TISX AS WELL AS TJSJ AFTER 30/06Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THEN OCCASIONALLY UP TO 6 FEET MAINLY OFFSHORE BY LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH INCREASING TRADE WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS...AS A TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR UPDATES AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  78  87 /  10  30  20  40
STT  78  89  78  87 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

25/09




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291655
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1255 PM AST WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...AS EXPECTED THE LOCAL AREA HAS OBSERVED MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER WITH ONLY BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND THE NORTHERN
USVI...CULEBRA AND THE NEARBY WATERS. THIS PATTERN OF BRIEF
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE REST OF TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN WITH
A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE
LOCAL EFFECTS.

THE TUTT IS NOW RIGHT OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DRIFTING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TUTT WITH THE EXPECTED TROPICAL WAVE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. THE AREA
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS EXPANDED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AFTER
CONSIDERING THE POSITIONING OF THE TUTT AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. VCSH
POSSIBLE FOR IST AND JSJ EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH VCTS POSSIBLE
AT JMZ AFTER 29/17Z. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS...DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 30/00Z.


&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS
AND SEAS UP TO 5 FEET.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM AST WED JUL 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN BY TODAY. IT IS TO THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE TRANSPORTING A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE. TUTT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS OVER THE REGION
NEXT FEW DAYS.

DISCUSSION...SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. IN GENERAL...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION OVERNIGHT. FOR TODAY...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATES THE REGION WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS WELL DEFINED TUTT LOW
NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS
ACROSS THE REGION NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN A
FAVORABLE AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MAINLY FRIDAY...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE REGION EXPECTED TO REACH
AROUND 2.10 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER
AREA OF DRY AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH/VCTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ
AND TJBQ AFTER 29/17Z. SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM. EAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AROUND 15 KTS FM SFC TO FL100.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. 5 FEET
MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS...ELSEWHERE 4 FEET
OR LESS.

FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY...MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO
RICO. REFER TO THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
ABOUT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  91  78  89  78 /  20  10  30  20
STT  90  79  89  79 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

25/09



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291655
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1255 PM AST WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...AS EXPECTED THE LOCAL AREA HAS OBSERVED MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER WITH ONLY BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND THE NORTHERN
USVI...CULEBRA AND THE NEARBY WATERS. THIS PATTERN OF BRIEF
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE REST OF TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN WITH
A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE
LOCAL EFFECTS.

THE TUTT IS NOW RIGHT OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DRIFTING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TUTT WITH THE EXPECTED TROPICAL WAVE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. THE AREA
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS EXPANDED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AFTER
CONSIDERING THE POSITIONING OF THE TUTT AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. VCSH
POSSIBLE FOR IST AND JSJ EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH VCTS POSSIBLE
AT JMZ AFTER 29/17Z. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS...DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 30/00Z.


&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS
AND SEAS UP TO 5 FEET.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM AST WED JUL 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN BY TODAY. IT IS TO THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE TRANSPORTING A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE. TUTT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS OVER THE REGION
NEXT FEW DAYS.

DISCUSSION...SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. IN GENERAL...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION OVERNIGHT. FOR TODAY...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATES THE REGION WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS WELL DEFINED TUTT LOW
NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS
ACROSS THE REGION NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN A
FAVORABLE AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MAINLY FRIDAY...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE REGION EXPECTED TO REACH
AROUND 2.10 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER
AREA OF DRY AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH/VCTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ
AND TJBQ AFTER 29/17Z. SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM. EAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AROUND 15 KTS FM SFC TO FL100.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. 5 FEET
MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS...ELSEWHERE 4 FEET
OR LESS.

FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY...MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO
RICO. REFER TO THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
ABOUT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  91  78  89  78 /  20  10  30  20
STT  90  79  89  79 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

25/09



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290932
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
532 AM AST WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN BY TODAY. IT IS TO THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE TRANSPORTING A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE. TUTT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS OVER THE REGION
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. IN GENERAL...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION OVERNIGHT. FOR TODAY...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATES THE REGION WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELITE IMAGES SHOWS WELL DEFINED TUTT LOW
NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS
ACROSS THE REGION NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN A
FAVORABLE AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MAINLY FRIDAY...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE REGION EXPECTED TO REACH
AROUND 2.10 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER
AREA OF DRY AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH/VCTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ
AND TJBQ AFTER 29/17Z. SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM. EAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AROUND 15 KTS FM SFC TO FL100.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. 5 FEET
MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS...ELSEWHERE 4 FEET
OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY...MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO
RICO. REFER TO THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
ABOUT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  91  78  89  78 /  20  10  30  20
STT  90  79  89  79 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

11/71




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290932
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
532 AM AST WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN BY TODAY. IT IS TO THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE TRANSPORTING A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE. TUTT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS OVER THE REGION
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. IN GENERAL...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION OVERNIGHT. FOR TODAY...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATES THE REGION WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELITE IMAGES SHOWS WELL DEFINED TUTT LOW
NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS
ACROSS THE REGION NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN A
FAVORABLE AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MAINLY FRIDAY...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE REGION EXPECTED TO REACH
AROUND 2.10 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER
AREA OF DRY AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH/VCTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ
AND TJBQ AFTER 29/17Z. SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM. EAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AROUND 15 KTS FM SFC TO FL100.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. 5 FEET
MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS...ELSEWHERE 4 FEET
OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY...MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO
RICO. REFER TO THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
ABOUT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  91  78  89  78 /  20  10  30  20
STT  90  79  89  79 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

11/71




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290932
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
532 AM AST WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN BY TODAY. IT IS TO THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE TRANSPORTING A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE. TUTT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS OVER THE REGION
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. IN GENERAL...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION OVERNIGHT. FOR TODAY...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATES THE REGION WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELITE IMAGES SHOWS WELL DEFINED TUTT LOW
NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS
ACROSS THE REGION NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN A
FAVORABLE AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MAINLY FRIDAY...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE REGION EXPECTED TO REACH
AROUND 2.10 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER
AREA OF DRY AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH/VCTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ
AND TJBQ AFTER 29/17Z. SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM. EAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AROUND 15 KTS FM SFC TO FL100.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. 5 FEET
MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS...ELSEWHERE 4 FEET
OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY...MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO
RICO. REFER TO THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
ABOUT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  91  78  89  78 /  20  10  30  20
STT  90  79  89  79 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

11/71




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290932
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
532 AM AST WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN BY TODAY. IT IS TO THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE TRANSPORTING A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE. TUTT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS OVER THE REGION
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. IN GENERAL...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION OVERNIGHT. FOR TODAY...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATES THE REGION WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELITE IMAGES SHOWS WELL DEFINED TUTT LOW
NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS
ACROSS THE REGION NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN A
FAVORABLE AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MAINLY FRIDAY...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE REGION EXPECTED TO REACH
AROUND 2.10 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER
AREA OF DRY AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH/VCTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ
AND TJBQ AFTER 29/17Z. SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM. EAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AROUND 15 KTS FM SFC TO FL100.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. 5 FEET
MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS...ELSEWHERE 4 FEET
OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY...MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO
RICO. REFER TO THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
ABOUT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  91  78  89  78 /  20  10  30  20
STT  90  79  89  79 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

11/71




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290234
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1034 PM AST TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO SHORT TERM GRIDS TO
MATCH CLOUD COVER...OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. AS TUTT RELOCATES
TO OUR WEST THROUGH THURSDAY AND A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A DRY AIR MASS MOVES IN
FROM THE EAST LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR
WEATHER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH VCSH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. VCSH/VCTS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER 29/17Z. SAHARAN DUST
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...BUT VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
P6SM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 15 KTS AFTER 29/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. 5 FEET
MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS...ELSEWHERE 4 FEET
OR LESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM AST TUE JUL 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
TUTT LOW NOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS
OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL HOWEVER LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE REGION AT LEAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WHEN
IT IS THEN FORECAST TO ERODE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
BY WEDNESDAY. IT IS TO THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WHILE TRANSPORTING A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. THIS
EXPECTED OVERALL PATTERN WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND LOCAL WATERS... WITH POTENTIAL
FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES IN ISOLATED AREAS.

DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR
PARTS OF WEST PR WHERE LOCAL FORCING AND DIURNAL EFFECTS MAY LEAD
TO SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE PREVAILING
LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO SPREAD THE SAHARAN AIR
LAYER ACROSS THE REGION AND THEREFORE BRING HOT AND OVERAL DRY AND
HAZY CONDITIONS DUE TO THE SUSPENDED DUST PATRTCULATES. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS SIGNIFICANT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE TUTT LOW IS FORECAST TO RELOCATE OVERHEAD
WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGE ERODES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND POOLING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE CROSSES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE...ALL SUGGEST INCREASING MOISTURE WITH BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS AS THESE TWO FEATURES INTERACT. BY THE WEEKEND
HOWEVER...LESSER ACTIVITY AND DECREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
EXPECTED...AS TUTT SHIFTS FARTHER WEST AND WEAKENS...AND THE
SURFACE HIGH REESTABLISHES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AFTER 28/17Z. SAHARAN DUST PRESENT
CAUSING HAZE BUT VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM. WINDS FROM THE
EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT 15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTY FOR THE
REST OF TODAY...DIMINISHING AFTER 29/00Z TO 5-10 KTS...INCREASING
ONCE AGAIN TO AROUND 15 KTS AFTER 29/13Z.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS
WILL BE UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  79  89 /  20  20  10  30
STT  79  90  79  89 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

72/23



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290234
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1034 PM AST TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO SHORT TERM GRIDS TO
MATCH CLOUD COVER...OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. AS TUTT RELOCATES
TO OUR WEST THROUGH THURSDAY AND A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A DRY AIR MASS MOVES IN
FROM THE EAST LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR
WEATHER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH VCSH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. VCSH/VCTS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER 29/17Z. SAHARAN DUST
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...BUT VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
P6SM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 15 KTS AFTER 29/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. 5 FEET
MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS...ELSEWHERE 4 FEET
OR LESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM AST TUE JUL 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
TUTT LOW NOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS
OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL HOWEVER LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE REGION AT LEAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WHEN
IT IS THEN FORECAST TO ERODE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
BY WEDNESDAY. IT IS TO THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WHILE TRANSPORTING A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. THIS
EXPECTED OVERALL PATTERN WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND LOCAL WATERS... WITH POTENTIAL
FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES IN ISOLATED AREAS.

DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR
PARTS OF WEST PR WHERE LOCAL FORCING AND DIURNAL EFFECTS MAY LEAD
TO SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE PREVAILING
LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO SPREAD THE SAHARAN AIR
LAYER ACROSS THE REGION AND THEREFORE BRING HOT AND OVERAL DRY AND
HAZY CONDITIONS DUE TO THE SUSPENDED DUST PATRTCULATES. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS SIGNIFICANT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE TUTT LOW IS FORECAST TO RELOCATE OVERHEAD
WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGE ERODES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND POOLING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE CROSSES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE...ALL SUGGEST INCREASING MOISTURE WITH BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS AS THESE TWO FEATURES INTERACT. BY THE WEEKEND
HOWEVER...LESSER ACTIVITY AND DECREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
EXPECTED...AS TUTT SHIFTS FARTHER WEST AND WEAKENS...AND THE
SURFACE HIGH REESTABLISHES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AFTER 28/17Z. SAHARAN DUST PRESENT
CAUSING HAZE BUT VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM. WINDS FROM THE
EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT 15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTY FOR THE
REST OF TODAY...DIMINISHING AFTER 29/00Z TO 5-10 KTS...INCREASING
ONCE AGAIN TO AROUND 15 KTS AFTER 29/13Z.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS
WILL BE UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  79  89 /  20  20  10  30
STT  79  90  79  89 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

72/23




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 281905
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TUTT LOW NOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS
OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL HOWEVER LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE REGION AT LEAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WHEN
IT IS THEN FORECAST TO ERODE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
BY WEDNESDAY. IT IS TO THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WHILE TRANSPORTING A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. THIS
EXPECTED OVERALL PATTERN WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND LOCAL WATERS... WITH POTENTIAL
FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES IN ISOLATED AREAS.

&&
.DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR
PARTS OF WEST PR WHERE LOCAL FORCING AND DIURNAL EFFECTS MAY LEAD
TO SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE PREVAILING
LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO SPREAD THE SAHARAN AIR
LAYER ACROSS THE REGION AND THEREFORE BRING HOT AND OVERAL DRY AND
HAZY CONDITIONS DUE TO THE SUSPENDED DUST PATRTCULATES. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS SIGNIFICANT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE TUTT LOW IS FORECAST TO RELOCATE OVERHEAD
WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGE ERODES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND POOLING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE CROSSES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE...ALL SUGGEST INCREASING MOISTURE WITH BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS AS THESE TWO FEATURES INTERACT. BY THE WEEKEND
HOWEVER...LESSER ACTIVITY AND DECREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
EXPECTED...AS TUTT SHIFTS FARTHER WEST AND WEAKENS...AND THE
SURFACE HIGH REESTABLISHES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AFTER 28/17Z. SAHARAN DUST PRESENT
CAUSING HAZE BUT VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM. WINDS FROM THE
EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT 15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTY FOR THE
REST OF TODAY...DIMINISHING AFTER 29/00Z TO 5-10 KTS...INCREASING
ONCE AGAIN TO AROUND 15 KTS AFTER 29/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS
WILL BE UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  91  79  91 /  20  20  10  30
STT  79  90  79  90 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

25/09



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 281905
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TUTT LOW NOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS
OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL HOWEVER LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE REGION AT LEAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WHEN
IT IS THEN FORECAST TO ERODE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
BY WEDNESDAY. IT IS TO THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WHILE TRANSPORTING A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. THIS
EXPECTED OVERALL PATTERN WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND LOCAL WATERS... WITH POTENTIAL
FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES IN ISOLATED AREAS.

&&
.DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR
PARTS OF WEST PR WHERE LOCAL FORCING AND DIURNAL EFFECTS MAY LEAD
TO SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE PREVAILING
LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO SPREAD THE SAHARAN AIR
LAYER ACROSS THE REGION AND THEREFORE BRING HOT AND OVERAL DRY AND
HAZY CONDITIONS DUE TO THE SUSPENDED DUST PATRTCULATES. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS SIGNIFICANT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE TUTT LOW IS FORECAST TO RELOCATE OVERHEAD
WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGE ERODES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND POOLING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE CROSSES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE...ALL SUGGEST INCREASING MOISTURE WITH BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS AS THESE TWO FEATURES INTERACT. BY THE WEEKEND
HOWEVER...LESSER ACTIVITY AND DECREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
EXPECTED...AS TUTT SHIFTS FARTHER WEST AND WEAKENS...AND THE
SURFACE HIGH REESTABLISHES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AFTER 28/17Z. SAHARAN DUST PRESENT
CAUSING HAZE BUT VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM. WINDS FROM THE
EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT 15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTY FOR THE
REST OF TODAY...DIMINISHING AFTER 29/00Z TO 5-10 KTS...INCREASING
ONCE AGAIN TO AROUND 15 KTS AFTER 29/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS
WILL BE UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  91  79  91 /  20  20  10  30
STT  79  90  79  90 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

25/09




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